WorldWideScience

Sample records for model iii decision

  1. A decision theoretical modeling for Phase III investments and drug licensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Frank; Burman, Carl-Fredrik

    2017-09-18

    For a new candidate drug to become an approved medicine, several decision points have to be passed. In this article, we focus on two of them: First, based on Phase II data, the commercial sponsor decides to invest (or not) in Phase III. Second, based on the outcome of Phase III, the regulator determines whether the drug should be granted market access. Assuming a population of candidate drugs with a distribution of true efficacy, we optimize the two stakeholders' decisions and study the interdependence between them. The regulator is assumed to seek to optimize the total public health benefit resulting from the efficacy of the drug and a safety penalty. In optimizing the regulatory rules, in terms of minimal required sample size and the Type I error in Phase III, we have to consider how these rules will modify the commercial optimization made by the sponsor. The results indicate that different Type I errors should be used depending on the rarity of the disease.

  2. The CLEO-III Trigger: Decision and gating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergfeld, T.J.; Gollin, G.D.; Haney, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    The CLEO-III Trigger provides a trigger decision every 42ns, with a latency of approximately 2.5μs. This paper describes the free-running, pipelined trigger decision logic, the throttling mechanism whereby the data acquisition system can modulate the trigger rate to maximize throughput without buffer overrun, and the subsequent signal distribution mechanism for delivering the trigger decision to the front-end electronics. This paper also describes the multilevel simulation methods employed to allow detailed low-level models of trigger components to be co-simulated with more abstract system models, thus allowing full system modeling without incurring prohibitive computational overheads

  3. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). Results The instruments under study provide excellent

  4. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrion Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs. The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC or probability integral transform (PIT, and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score. Results The instruments under study

  5. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  6. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  7. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  8. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  9. SIMMER-III analytic thermophysical property model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morita, K; Tobita, Y.; Kondo, Sa.; Fischer, E.A.

    1999-05-01

    An analytic thermophysical property model using general function forms is developed for a reactor safety analysis code, SIMMER-III. The function forms are designed to represent correct behavior of properties of reactor-core materials over wide temperature ranges, especially for the thermal conductivity and the viscosity near the critical point. The most up-to-date and reliable sources for uranium dioxide, mixed-oxide fuel, stainless steel, and sodium available at present are used to determine parameters in the proposed functions. This model is also designed to be consistent with a SIMMER-III model on thermodynamic properties and equations of state for reactor-core materials. (author)

  10. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  11. Decision tree modeling using R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-08-01

    In machine learning field, decision tree learner is powerful and easy to interpret. It employs recursive binary partitioning algorithm that splits the sample in partitioning variable with the strongest association with the response variable. The process continues until some stopping criteria are met. In the example I focus on conditional inference tree, which incorporates tree-structured regression models into conditional inference procedures. While growing a single tree is subject to small changes in the training data, random forests procedure is introduced to address this problem. The sources of diversity for random forests come from the random sampling and restricted set of input variables to be selected. Finally, I introduce R functions to perform model based recursive partitioning. This method incorporates recursive partitioning into conventional parametric model building.

  12. Modeling prioritized multicriteria decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yager, Ronald R

    2004-12-01

    We consider the problem of multicriteria decision making (MCDM) in the situation in which there exists a prioritization of criteria. A good example of prioritization among criteria occurs in the case of air travel, where concerns about passenger safety have a higher priority then economic concerns. Tradeoffs between saving on gasoline usage and jeopardizing passenger safety are unacceptable. We show how this prioritization of criteria can be modeled by using importance weights in which the weights associated with the lower priority criteria are related to the satisfaction of the higher priority criteria. We provide some models that allow for the formalization of these prioritized MCDM problems using both the Bellman-Zadeh paradigm for MCDM and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator method.

  13. Risk estimation and decision-making: implications of the 1980 BEIR-III report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1981-04-01

    The report gives a general background of the implications the current Report of the Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (The BEIR-III Report) may have on societal decision-making in the regulation of activities concerned with the health effects of low-level radiation

  14. Risk estimation and decision-making: implications of the 1980 BEIR-III report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1981-04-01

    The report gives a general background of the implications the current Report of the Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (The BEIR-III Report) may have on societal decision-making in the regulation of activities concerned with the health effects of low-level radiation. (ACR)

  15. Leveraging business intelligence to make better decisions: Part III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimers, Mona

    2014-01-01

    Accounts receivable and scheduling datasets have been available to medical practices since the 1990s, and discrete medical records data have become available over the past few years. But the frustrations that arose from the difficulties in reporting data grew with each keyboard stroke and mouse click. With reporting mandated to meet changing payment models, measuring quality of care and medical outcomes, practice managers must find more efficient and effective methods of extracting and compiling the data they have in their systems. Taming the reporting beast and learning to effectively apply business intelligence (BI) tools will become an expected managerial proficiency in the next few years. Practice managers' roles are changing quickly, and they will be required to understand the meaning of their practice's data and craft ways to leverage that data toward a strategic advantage.

  16. The KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerr, Thomas A; Dakins, Maxine; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Piet, Steven James

    2002-08-01

    The KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions is a new way of viewing, developing, organizing, and evaluating alternatives for decisions that may affect a wide range of interests and that must factor in long timeframes, enduring hazards, and/or continuing responsibilities. It differs from other models in that it addresses the need for decisions to continue to "work" over long time periods in an ever-changing decision environment. The authors show that the model contains three major universes - knowledge, values, and resources (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE)- that interact and overlap throughout the effective lifetime of a decision. They discuss how decision-makers and decision participants can use the model to craft and analyze decisions and decision processes that stand the test of time. The authors use the U.S. moon-landing program as an example of a major decision process that was sustained over time. They use the model to explain why events unfolded in the way that they did - and why we are where we are today in that program. The authors believe that this model will be especially useful in long-term decision processes such as those that address contamination cleanup programs, long-term environmental stewardship, and the initial siting of facilities with long-term objectives. Companion papers describe the KONVERGENCE Model process steps and implications for intractable cleanup decisions.

  17. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... depends to a high degree on subjective preferences stated by the decision-makers as the methodology deals with impacts (or criteria) that are difficult to quantify or assign with a monetary value. As a result of this an examination process is proposed that can guide the decision-makers through...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  18. Decision modeling and acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    formulation of decision criteria and public acceptance criteria connected to risk analysis of technical operations that may endanger human life and property. Public restrictions on the decisions concerning the design, construction and managing of the technical operation have in the past been imposed......, the owner that tries to optimize the net gain of the operation, and the public that has somewhat different preferences than the owner, but also strong interests in the success of the owner. The principles of rational decision are needed for appreciation of the problem. Recognizing that there is an insurance...

  19. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  20. Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

  1. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  2. Safe models for risky decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steingröver, H.M.

    2017-01-01

    In everyday life, we often have to decide between options that differ in their immediate and long-term consequences. Would you, for example, opt for a delicious piece of cake or rather eat a healthy apple? To investigate how people make risky decisions, this thesis focuses on the Iowa gambling task

  3. Decision modeling and acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    compensation value of a human life and a public money equivalent of a human life, where the last value usually is considerably larger than the first value, it is possible from the decision analysis to determine an upper limit that the public should impose on the ratio of the owner´s expected loss rate......) that combines wealth in terms of Gross Domestic Product per person, life expectancy at birth, and yearly work time into a single number. The philosophy behind the published evaluations is that the prevention of a loss of a life is counteracted by a cost such that the LQI remains unchanged (Skjong R, Ronold K......; Decision Analysis; Life quality index; Random interest rate; Risk aversion; Socio-economic value; Uncertainty aversion...

  4. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  5. Optimal Decision Making in Neural Inhibition Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ravenzwaaij, Don; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2012-01-01

    In their influential "Psychological Review" article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the feedforward inhibition model (FFI), can mimic the…

  6. Participatory modeling and structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.

    2016-01-01

    Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.

  7. Computer modeling of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

  8. Introduction to Modeling of Buying Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gruenwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Buying decision models of customers to adjust the competitiveness of organizations have been a challenge for marketing disciplines for several generations. This topic has been explored by researchers and academics in past years, and quite an extensive theoretical base exists with a number of approaches for dealing with this challenge.This paper presents some approaches for creating a customer decision model, and provides experimental results from an electronic investigation intended to build the Kano Model; to prove an ability to understand the modeling principle; and to find out the interpretation of the examined demand in a specific market segment involving students of a technical university. The last section of the paper contains a brief introduction to Choice-Based Modeling with Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (CBC, which was tailored for modeling purchasing decisions.

  9. Optimal decision making in neural inhibition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ravenzwaaij, D.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2012-01-01

    In their influential Psychological Review article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the

  10. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly

  11. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Stiglic

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. METHODS: This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. RESULTS: The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. CONCLUSIONS: The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets

  12. Multicriteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru Dan, B.

    2003-04-01

    In this paper a model to decide which buildings from an urban area should be retrofitted is presented. The model has been cast into existing ones by choosing the decision rule, criterion weighting and decision support system types most suitable for the spatial problem of reducing earthquake risk in urban areas, considering existing spatial multiatributive and multiobjective decision methods and especially collaborative issues. Due to the participative character of the group decision problem "retrofitting existing buildings" the decision making model is based on interactivity. Buildings have been modeled following the criteria of spatial decision support systems. This includes identifying the corresponding spatial elements of buildings according to the information needs of actors from different sphaeres like architects, construction engineers and economists. The decision model aims to facilitate collaboration between this actors. The way of setting priorities interactivelly will be shown, by detailing the two phases: judgemental and computational, in this case site analysis, collection and evaluation of the unmodified data and converting survey data to information with computational methods using additional expert support. Buildings have been divided into spatial elements which are characteristic for the survey, present typical damages in case of an earthquake and are decisive for a better seismic behaviour in case of retrofitting. The paper describes the architectural and engineering characteristics as well as the structural damage for constuctions of different building ages on the example of building types in Bucharest, Romania in compressible and interdependent charts, based on field observation, reports from the 1977 earthquake and detailed studies made by the author together with a local engineer for the EERI Web Housing Encyclopedia. On this base criteria for setting priorities flow into the expert information contained in the system.

  13. NASA 3D Models: Mark III Spacesuit

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Both the JSC Mark III and the ARC AX-5 suit have been designed to operate at a pressure of 8.3 psi. Current space shuttle spacesuits operate at 4.3 psi and require a...

  14. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  15. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  16. Towards better modelling and decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Grimm, V; Augusiak, J.

    2014-01-01

    The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE......, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its......, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing...

  17. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  18. Modeling Choice and Valuation in Decision Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomes, Graham

    2010-01-01

    This article develops a parsimonious descriptive model of individual choice and valuation in the kinds of experiments that constitute a substantial part of the literature relating to decision making under risk and uncertainty. It suggests that many of the best known "regularities" observed in those experiments may arise from a tendency for…

  19. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  20. Mortality Probability Model III and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilevskis, Eduard E.; Kuzniewicz, Michael W.; Cason, Brian A.; Lane, Rondall K.; Dean, Mitzi L.; Clay, Ted; Rennie, Deborah J.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Dudley, R. Adams

    2009-01-01

    Background: To develop and compare ICU length-of-stay (LOS) risk-adjustment models using three commonly used mortality or LOS prediction models. Methods: Between 2001 and 2004, we performed a retrospective, observational study of 11,295 ICU patients from 35 hospitals in the California Intensive Care Outcomes Project. We compared the accuracy of the following three LOS models: a recalibrated acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV-LOS model; and models developed using risk factors in the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0) and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II mortality prediction model. We evaluated models by calculating the following: (1) grouped coefficients of determination; (2) differences between observed and predicted LOS across subgroups; and (3) intraclass correlations of observed/expected LOS ratios between models. Results: The grouped coefficients of determination were APACHE IV with coefficients recalibrated to the LOS values of the study cohort (APACHE IVrecal) [R2 = 0.422], mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0 III) [R2 = 0.279], and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) [R2 = 0.008]. For each decile of predicted ICU LOS, the mean predicted LOS vs the observed LOS was significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) for three, two, and six deciles using APACHE IVrecal, MPM0 III, and SAPS II, respectively. Plots of the predicted vs the observed LOS ratios of the hospitals revealed a threefold variation in LOS among hospitals with high model correlations. Conclusions: APACHE IV and MPM0 III were more accurate than SAPS II for the prediction of ICU LOS. APACHE IV is the most accurate and best calibrated model. Although it is less accurate, MPM0 III may be a reasonable option if the data collection burden or the treatment effect bias is a consideration. PMID:19363210

  1. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Numerous design decisions including architectural decisions are made while developing a software system, which influence the architecture of the system as well as subsequent decisions. Several tools already exist for managing design decisions, i.e. capturing, documenting, and maintaining them......, but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models....... In this paper, we propose an integration of a decision management and a UML-based modeling tool, based on use cases we distill from an example: the UML modeling tool shall show all decisions related to a model and allow extending or updating them; the decision management tool shall trigger the modeling tool...

  2. Recovery boiler model; Soodakattilan kehitystyoe III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janka, K.; Ylitalo, M.; Sundstroem, K.; Helke, R.; Heinola, M. [Kvaerner Pulping Oy, Tampere (Finland)

    1997-10-01

    The recovery boiler model was further tested and developed. At this moment the model includes submodels for: droplet drying, pyrolysis, char burning, gas burning and for droplet trajectory. During 1996 the formation of CH{sub 4} during pyrolysis and release of sulfur was included to the model. Further the formation of NO from fuel nitrogen and formation of thermal- NO were included to the model using Arrhenius type reaction rate equations. The calculated results are realistic and the model is used as a tool to find out methods to increase the efficiency and availability and decrease the emissions. Analysing the results of the earlier field study of 8 boilers showed that the furnace heat load, fuming rate, find the black liquor composition have influence on the enrichment of the potassium to the fly ash. (orig.)

  3. Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

    CERN Document Server

    Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

  4. Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, L. (Bentley College, Waltham, MA (United States)); Vollmann, T.E. (International Inst. for Management Development, Lausanne (Switzerland))

    A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply.

  5. Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, L.; Vollmann, T.E.

    1992-01-01

    A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply

  6. Circumplex Model VII: validation studies and FACES III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, D H

    1986-09-01

    This paper reviews some of the recent empirical studies validating the Circumplex Model and describes the newly developed self-report measure, FACES III. Studies testing hypotheses derived from the Circumplex Model regarding the three dimensions of cohesion, change, and communication are reviewed. Case illustrations using FACES III and the Clinical Rating Scale are presented. These two assessment tools can be used for making a diagnosis of family functioning and for assessing changes over the course of treatment. This paper reflects the continuing attempt to develop further the Circumplex Model and to bridge more adequately research, theory, and practice.

  7. Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsby, M.; Lusk, G.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which climate models can underwrite specific climate policies has long been a contentious issue. Skeptics frequently deny that climate models are trustworthy in an attempt to undermine climate action, whereas policy makers often desire information that exceeds the capabilities of extant models. While not skeptics, a group of mathematicians and philosophers [Frigg et al. (2014)] recently argued that even tiny differences between the structure of a complex dynamical model and its target system can lead to dramatic predictive errors, possibly resulting in disastrous consequences when policy decisions are based upon those predictions. They call this result the Hawkmoth effect (HME), and seemingly use it to rebuke rightwing proposals to forgo mitigation in favor of adaptation. However, a vigorous debate has emerged between Frigg et al. on one side and another philosopher-mathematician pair [Winsberg and Goodwin (2016)] on the other. On one hand, Frigg et al. argue that their result shifts the burden to climate scientists to demonstrate that their models do not fall prey to the HME. On the other hand, Winsberg and Goodwin suggest that arguments like those asserted by Frigg et al. can be, if taken seriously, "dangerous": they fail to consider the variety of purposes for which models can be used, and thus too hastily undermine large swaths of climate science. They put the burden back on Frigg et al. to show their result has any effect on climate science. This paper seeks to attenuate this debate by establishing an irenic middle position; we find that there is more agreement between sides than it first seems. We distinguish a `decision standard' from a `burden of proof', which helps clarify the contributions to the debate from both sides. In making this distinction, we argue that scientists bear the burden of assessing the consequences of HME, but that the standard Frigg et al. adopt for decision relevancy is too strict.

  8. Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buechler, Cynthia Eileen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-01-11

    This report describes the continuation of the work reported in “Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development” and “Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development II”. The experiment was performed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in 2014. A rastered 35 MeV electron beam deposited power in a solution of uranyl sulfate, generating heat and radiolytic gas bubbles. Irradiations were performed at beam power levels between 6 and 15 kW. Solution temperatures were measured by thermocouples, and gas bubble behavior was recorded. The previous report2 described the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculations and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis performed on the as-built solution vessel geometry. The CFD simulations in the current analysis were performed using Ansys Fluent, Ver. 17.2. The same power profiles determined from MCNP calculations in earlier work were used for the 12 and 15 kW simulations. The primary goal of the current work is to calculate the temperature profiles for the 12 and 15 kW cases using reasonable estimates for the gas generation rate, based on images of the bubbles recorded during the irradiations. Temperature profiles resulting from the CFD calculations are compared to experimental measurements.

  9. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    the development process. In this report, we propose an integration of a decision management and a UML-based modeling tool, based on use cases we distill from a case study: the modeling tool shall show all decisions related to a model and allow its users to extend or update them; the decision management tool shall......Numerous design decisions are made while developing software systems, which influence the architecture of these systems as well as following decisions. A number of decision management tools already exist for capturing, documenting, and maintaining design decisions, but also for guiding developers...... trigger the modeling tool to realize design decisions in the models. We define tool-independent concepts and architecture building blocks supporting these use cases and present how they can be implemented in the IBM Rational Software Modeler and Architectural Decision Knowledge Wiki. This seamless...

  10. The study of prescriptive and descriptive models of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Ashok A Divekar; Sunita Bangal; Sumangala D.

    2012-01-01

    The field of decision making can be loosely divided into two parts: the study of prescriptive models and the study of descriptive models. Prescriptive decision scientists are concerned with prescribing methods for making optimal decisions. Descriptive decision researchers are concerned with the bounded way in which the decisions are actually made. The statistics courses treat risk from a prescriptive, by suggesting rational methods. This paper brings out the work done by many researchers by e...

  11. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  12. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  13. A Model of Career Decision Making for College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harren, Vincent A.

    1979-01-01

    Presents a model of career decision-making which includes: a delineation of the internal psychological process of decision-making; identification of important developmental and personality characteristics of the decision maker; and specification of immediate or anticipated environmental factors influencing decision-making. (Author)

  14. A Descriptive Model of Decision Making: Review of Idiographic Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhail-Wilcox, Bettye; Bryant, H. David

    1988-01-01

    This article provides an overview of decision-making literature, describes individual and organizational decision stages, and reviews selected idiographic influences on decision-making. Also presented is a model for predicting and explaining variations in decision outcomes. These outcomes include affective, cognitive, and behavioral conditions.…

  15. Aggregated systems model for nuclear safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-03-01

    This report summarizes a general analytical tool designed to assist nuclear safeguards decision-makers. The approach is based on decision analysis--a quantitative procedure for evaluating complex decision alternatives with uncertain outcomes. The report describes the general analytical approach in the context of safeguards decisions at a hypothetical nuclear fuel reprocessing plant

  16. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  17. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  18. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  19. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  20. Decision Making in the PICU: An Examination of Factors Influencing Participation Decisions in Phase III Randomized Clinical Trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E. Slosky

    2014-01-01

    participate were not related to enrollment. Conclusion. Decisions to participate in research by surrogates of children in the PICU appear to relate to child demographics and subtleties in communication; however, no modifiable characteristics were related to increased participation, indicating that the informed consent process may not be compromised in this population.

  1. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  2. Theoretical bases of modeling decision-marketing solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Grigoruk Pavel Mikhaylovych

    2012-01-01

    The paper deals with issues related with theoretical aspects of modelling of marketing decision making process. According to system approach marketing decision making process is seen as a set of related subprocesses. Provided an opportunity to use the economic and mathematical modelling at each stage of the decision making process.

  3. Expected Utility and Sequential Elimination Models of Career Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Michal; Lichtenberg, James W.

    Decision-making strategies have traditionally been classified as either prescriptive/normative or descriptive/behavioral in nature. Proponents of prescriptive/normative decision-making models attempt to develop procedures for making optimal decisions while proponents of the descriptive/behavioral models look for a choice that meets a minimal set…

  4. Neural decision model of business capitalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Pokorný

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The topic of this article is focused on problems related to enterprise financial supervising. In the concrete, the situation of enterprise investment policy evaluation is described here. In this case, as a convenient tool for decision support, the approach of artificial intelligence was selected, particularly the model of neuron network. For the purpose of enterprise economic state evaluation, we use four input variables which describe the economic state. Three main variables are selected and the fourth one is the additional. The coding of main variables is chosen with the respect to the possible states of the enterprise. The multilayer neuron network was used for evaluation.The neural network can solve problems, which are hardly solvable for a manager because there can exist a lot of factors affecting the final decision. We have to take into account the fact that sometimes the situation is too complex. In this case, when the system gives incorrect result, it is possible to extend the current learning set and add adequate patterns which will help the system to recognize states of the enterprise.

  5. Thermal Modeling Method Improvements for SAGE III on ISS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liles, Kaitlin; Amundsen, Ruth; Davis, Warren; McLeod, Shawn

    2015-01-01

    The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Many innovative analysis methods have been used in developing this model; these will be described in the paper. This paper builds on a paper presented at TFAWS 2013, which described some of the initial developments of efficient methods for SAGE III. The current paper describes additional improvements that have been made since that time. To expedite the correlation of the model to thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing, the chambers and GSE for both TVAC chambers at Langley used to test the payload were incorporated within the thermal model. This allowed the runs of TVAC predictions and correlations to be run within the flight model, thus eliminating the need for separate models for TVAC. In one TVAC test, radiant lamps were used which necessitated shooting rays from the lamps, and running in both solar and IR wavebands. A new Dragon model was incorporated which entailed a change in orientation; that change was made using an assembly, so that any potential additional new Dragon orbits could be added in the future without modification of the model. The Earth orbit parameters such as albedo and Earth infrared flux were incorporated as time-varying values that change over the course of the orbit; despite being required in one of the ISS documents, this had not been done before by any previous payload. All parameters such as initial temperature, heater voltage, and location of the payload are defined based on the case definition. For one component, testing was performed in both air and vacuum; incorporating the air convection in a submodel that was

  6. Modeling decisions information fusion and aggregation operators

    CERN Document Server

    Torra, Vicenc

    2007-01-01

    Information fusion techniques and aggregation operators produce the most comprehensive, specific datum about an entity using data supplied from different sources, thus enabling us to reduce noise, increase accuracy, summarize and extract information, and make decisions. These techniques are applied in fields such as economics, biology and education, while in computer science they are particularly used in fields such as knowledge-based systems, robotics, and data mining. This book covers the underlying science and application issues related to aggregation operators, focusing on tools used in practical applications that involve numerical information. Starting with detailed introductions to information fusion and integration, measurement and probability theory, fuzzy sets, and functional equations, the authors then cover the following topics in detail: synthesis of judgements, fuzzy measures, weighted means and fuzzy integrals, indices and evaluation methods, model selection, and parameter extraction. The method...

  7. An architectural decision modeling framework for service oriented architecture design

    OpenAIRE

    Zimmermann, Olaf

    2009-01-01

    In this thesis, we investigate whether reusable architectural decision models can support Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) design. In the current state of the art, architectural decisions are captured ad hoc and retrospectively on projects; this is a labor-intensive undertaking without immediate benefits. On the contrary, we investigate the role reusable architectural decision models can play during SOA design: We treat recurring architectural decisions as first-class method elements and p...

  8. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  9. A Bayesian Attractor Model for Perceptual Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2015-01-01

    Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143

  10. A control theory model for human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.

    1972-01-01

    The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

  11. Bianchi VI0 and III models: self-similar approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belinchon, Jose Antonio

    2009-01-01

    We study several cosmological models with Bianchi VI 0 and III symmetries under the self-similar approach. We find new solutions for the 'classical' perfect fluid model as well as for the vacuum model although they are really restrictive for the equation of state. We also study a perfect fluid model with time-varying constants, G and Λ. As in other studied models we find that the behaviour of G and Λ are related. If G behaves as a growing time function then Λ is a positive decreasing time function but if G is decreasing then Λ 0 is negative. We end by studying a massive cosmic string model, putting special emphasis in calculating the numerical values of the equations of state. We show that there is no SS solution for a string model with time-varying constants.

  12. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  13. Modelling contractor’s bidding decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biruk Sławomir

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors aim to provide a set of tools to facilitate the main stages of the competitive bidding process for construction contractors. These involve 1 deciding whether to bid, 2 calculating the total price, and 3 breaking down the total price into the items of the bill of quantities or the schedule of payments to optimise contractor cash flows. To define factors that affect the decision to bid, the authors rely upon literature on the subject and put forward that multi-criteria methods are applied to calculate a single measure of contract attractiveness (utility value. An attractive contract implies that the contractor is likely to offer a lower price to increase chances of winning the competition. The total bid price is thus to be interpolated between the lowest acceptable and the highest justifiable price based on the contract attractiveness. With the total bid price established, the next step is to split it between the items of the schedule of payments. A linear programming model is proposed for this purpose. The application of the models is illustrated with a numerical example.

  14. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of the terrestrial food chain model FOOD III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1980-10-01

    As a first step in constructing a terrestrial food chain model suitable for long-term waste management situations, a numerical sensitivity analysis of FOOD III was carried out to identify important model parameters. The analysis involved 42 radionuclides, four pathways, 14 food types, 93 parameters and three percentages of parameter variation. We also investigated the importance of radionuclides, pathways and food types. The analysis involved a simple contamination model to render results from individual pathways comparable. The analysis showed that radionuclides vary greatly in their dose contribution to each of the four pathways, but relative contributions to each pathway are very similar. Man's and animals' drinking water pathways are much more important than the leaf and root pathways. However, this result depends on the contamination model used. All the pathways contain unimportant food types. Considering the number of parameters involved, FOOD III has too many different food types. Many of the parameters of the leaf and root pathway are important. However, this is true for only a few of the parameters of animals' drinking water pathway, and for neither of the two parameters of mans' drinking water pathway. The radiological decay constant increases the variability of these results. The dose factor is consistently the most important variable, and it explains most of the variability of radionuclide doses within pathways. Consideration of the variability of dose factors is important in contemporary as well as long-term waste management assessment models, if realistic estimates are to be made. (auth)

  16. Incorporating affective bias in models of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nygren, Thomas E.

    1991-01-01

    Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior.

  17. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  18. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  19. Clinical models of decision making in addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Kaplan, Brent A

    2018-01-01

    As research on decision making in addiction accumulates, it is increasingly clear that decision-making processes are dysfunctional in addiction and that this dysfunction may be fundamental to the initiation and maintenance of addictive behavior. How drug-dependent individuals value and choose among drug and nondrug rewards is consistently different from non-dependent individuals. The present review focuses on the assessment of decision-making in addiction. We cover the common behavioral tasks that have shown to be fruitful in decision-making research and highlight analytical and graphical considerations, when available, to facilitate comparisons within and among studies. Delay discounting tasks, drug demand tasks, drug choice tasks, the Iowa Gambling Task, and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task are included. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A cooperative model of decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armour, A.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will describe an experiment aimed at increasing the social responsiveness of planning and decision processes. It involves an on-going effort by the canadian federal government to site a facility to manage low level radioactive wastes

  1. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

  2. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  3. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  4. Anticipatory network models of multicriteria decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skulimowski, Andrzej M. J.

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we will investigate the properties of a compromise solution selection method based on modelling the consequences of a decision as factors influencing the decision making in subsequent problems. Specifically, we assume that the constraints and preference structures in the (k + 1)st multicriteria optimisation problem depend on the values of criteria in the k-th problem. To make a decision in the initial problem, the decision maker should take into account the anticipated outcomes of each linked future decision problem. This model can be extended to a network of linked decision problems, such that causal relations are defined between the time-ordered nodes. Multiple edges starting from a decision node correspond to different future scenarios of consequences at this node. In addition, we will define the relation of anticipatory feedback, assuming that some decision makers take into account the anticipated future consequences of their decisions described by a network of optimisers - a class of information processing units introduced in this article. Both relations (causal and anticipatory) form a feedback information model, which makes possible a selection of compromise solutions taking into account the anticipated consequences. We provide constructive algorithms to solve discrete multicriteria decision problems that admit the above preference information structure. An illustrative example is presented in Section 4. Various applications of the above model, including the construction of technology foresight scenarios, are discussed in the final section of this article.

  5. A decision support model for reducing electric energy consumption in elementary school facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Jeong, Kwangbok

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Decision support model is developed to reduce CO 2 emission in elementary schools. ► The model can select the school to be the most effective in energy savings. ► Decision tree improved the prediction accuracy by 1.83–3.88%. ► Using the model, decision-maker can save the electric-energy consumption by 16.58%. ► The model can make the educational-facility improvement program more effective. -- Abstract: The South Korean government has been actively promoting an educational-facility improvement program as part of its energy-saving efforts. This research seeks to develop a decision support model for selecting the facility expected to be effective in generating energy savings and making the facility improvement program more effective. In this research, project characteristics and electric-energy consumption data for the year 2009 were collected from 6282 elementary schools located in seven metropolitan cities in South Korea. In this research, the following were carried out: (i) a group of educational facilities was established based on electric-energy consumption, using a decision tree; (ii) a number of similar projects were retrieved from the same group of facilities, using case-based reasoning; and (iii) the accuracy of prediction was improved, using the combination of genetic algorithms, the artificial neural network, and multiple regression analysis. The results of this research can be useful for the following purposes: (i) preliminary research on the systematic and continuous management of educational facilities’ electric-energy consumption; (ii) basic research on electric-energy consumption prediction based on the project characteristics; and (iii) practical research for selecting an optimum facility that can more effectively apply an educational-facility improvement program as a decision support model.

  6. Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Alexander; Salman, Mo; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2011-04-01

    Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. OPTIMASI PEMILIHAN LOKASI FASILITAS PENGOLAHAN LIMBAH ELEKTRONIK (E-WASTE DI INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL ELECTRE III

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pertiwi Andarani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Limbah elektronik adalah masalah yang muncul di Indonesia karena mengandung bahan yang berpotensi berbahaya. Dalam rangka menciptakan manajemen yang ramah lingkungan dari limbah elektronik, fasilitas yang memadai diperlukan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memilih lokasi yang optimal untuk mengembangkan fasilitas pengolahan limbah elektronik (FLPE. Pemilihan lokasi yang optimal dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode model ELECTRE III. ELECTRE adalah keluarga metode analisis keputusan multi-kriteria yang berasal di Eropa. Kriteria yang dipilih untuk analisis ini adalah penduduk setempat, penduduk yang dilayani, persentase belanja bulanan, harga rata-rata rumah tangga per unit, populasi pengangguran, status finansial dari penduduk lokal, jarak dari fasilitas yang telah ada, dan jarak dari pelabuhan terdekat. ELECTRE III membutuhkan penentuan tiga ambang batas, yaitu ambang kelalaian (q, ambang batas preferensi (p, dan ambang veto (v dalam upaya untuk lebih beradaptasi dengan ketidakpastian. Bobot masing-masing kriteria yang ditentukan sesuai dengan kepentingan relatif terhadap kriteria lain. Lokasi optimal untuk FPLE adalah Provinsi Banten berdasarkan model ELECTRE III.   Kata Kunci: limbah elektronik, fasilitas, optimasi, ELECTRE Abstract E-waste is an emerging issue in Indonesia due to its potentially hazardous content and some precious metal. In order to create an environmentally sound management of e-waste, a facility is necessary. The objectives of this study are to to select the optimal location of e-waste dismantling and sorting facility (DSF/FLPE.  The optimal location selection was conducted using the method of ELECTRE III model. ELECTRE is a family of multi-criteria decision analysis methods that originated in Europe. The criteria chosen for this analysis are local population, population served, the percentage of monthly expenditure, average household price per unit, unemployed population, financial status of the local population

  9. A Model Career Decision-Making Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwight, Alice Heasley

    1975-01-01

    Essex Community College (Maryland) has instituted a one-credit course in career decision-making. The course is designed to aid the college student and the older adult in making a career-oriented assessment of personality needs, capacities, interests, and values with additional emphasis on local and national manpower needs. (Author/DC)

  10. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating

  11. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  12. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating

  13. Revisiting the Relationship Between Data, Models, and Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferré, Ty P A

    2017-09-01

    We hydrologists can do a better job of supporting water-resources decision-making. I will argue that we can do this by recognizing that decision makers use qualitative, multiple-narrative approaches. So, rather than providing single-model predictions with quantitative uncertainties, we should develop teams of rival models that inform decision makers about what is known, what is possible, and what is unknown. This requires that we build ensembles of models that include biased, advocacy models that directly represent stakeholders' interests or concerns. From this inclusive platform, we can speak objectively and clearly about the risks that drive stakeholders' decisions. Furthermore, we will be promoting more appropriate use of the scientific method in making informed water-resources decisions. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  14. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  15. Decision making in the treatment of class III furcation: resective therapy? Extraction? Implant?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Wilson Sallum

    Full Text Available The presence of furcation lesions is associated with bone resorption and lack of insertion in the inter-radicular space, and is a condition that considerably increases the risk of dental loss, particularly in the absence of adequate treatment. In this context, the object of some of the therapies is to keep teeth with furcation lesions that are important to dental planning, to re-establish an anatomy that enables the patient to remove dental biofilm from the compromised area. However, the long term maintenance and treatment of molars with Class III furcation lesions continues to be a challenge to dentists during periodontal therapy, since the anatomy of the inter-radicular region makes it difficult for both professionals and patients to gain access to perform adequate and efficient control of dental biofilm. The impossibility of obtaining appropriate decontamination of the area involved during the root scraping process, including by means of surgical access, demands thatdentists have adequate knowledge to determine the correct therapeutic approach during the treatment of teeth with advance inter-radicularbone loss. The aim of the present study was to discuss the treatments available for Class III furcation lesions and relate clinical procedures that could be performed for the treatment of this type of defect.

  16. Dissolving decision making? Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans

    2014-12-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.

  17. Yunnan-III models for evolutionary population synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Li, L.; Han, Z.; Zhuang, Y.; Kang, X.

    2013-02-01

    We build the Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by using the mesa stellar evolution code, BaSeL stellar spectra library and the initial mass functions (IMFs) of Kroupa and Salpeter, and present colours and integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of solar-metallicity stellar populations (SPs) in the range of 1 Myr to 15 Gyr. The main characteristic of the Yunnan-III EPS models is the usage of a set of self-consistent solar-metallicity stellar evolutionary tracks (the masses of stars are from 0.1 to 100 M⊙). This set of tracks is obtained by using the state-of-the-art mesa code. mesa code can evolve stellar models through thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase for low- and intermediate-mass stars. By comparisons, we confirm that the inclusion of TP-AGB stars makes the V - K, V - J and V - R colours of SPs redder and the infrared flux larger at ages log(t/yr) ≳ 7.6 [the differences reach the maximum at log(t/yr) ˜ 8.6, ˜0.5-0.2 mag for colours, approximately two times for K-band flux]. We also find that the colour-evolution trends of Model with-TPAGB at intermediate and large ages are similar to those from the starburst99 code, which employs the Padova-AGB stellar library, BaSeL spectral library and the Kroupa IMF. At last, we compare the colours with the other EPS models comprising TP-AGB stars (such as CB07, M05, V10 and POPSTAR), and find that the B - V colour agrees with each other but the V-K colour shows a larger discrepancy among these EPS models [˜1 mag when 8 ≲ log(t/yr) ≲ 9]. The stellar evolutionary tracks, isochrones, colours and ISEDs can be obtained on request from the first author or from our website (http://www1.ynao.ac.cn/~zhangfh/). Using the isochrones, you can build your EPS models. Now the format of stellar evolutionary tracks is the same as that in the starburst99 code; you can put them into the starburst99 code and get the SP's results. Moreover, the colours involving other passbands

  18. Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    are cautious rather than reckless when taking decisions under uncertainty (see, e.g., the literature on "defensive pessimism," Norem & Cantor, 1986a...optimism continuum ( Norem & Cantor, 1986a; 1986b). Indeed, as demonstrated by Schneider and Lopes (1986) ( see also Lopes, 1987), when subjects are...1956). Stability of choices among uncertain alternatives. American Journal of - Psychology, 69, 604-615. "- Norem , J. K., & Cantor, N. (1986a

  19. Decision tree modeling with relational views

    OpenAIRE

    Bentayeb, Fadila; Darmont, Jérôme

    2007-01-01

    International audience; Data mining is a useful decision support technique that can be used to discover production rules in warehouses or corporate data. Data mining research has made much effort to apply various mining algorithms efficiently on large databases. However, a serious problem in their practical application is the long processing time of such algorithms. Nowadays, one of the key challenges is to integrate data mining methods within the framework of traditional database systems. In...

  20. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  1. Identification of reverse logistics decision types from mathematical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascual Cortés Pellicer

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The increase in social awareness, politics and environmental regulation, the scarcity of raw materials and the desired “green” image, are some of the reasons that lead companies to decide for implement processes of Reverse Logistics (RL. At the time when incorporate new RL processes as key business processes, new and important decisions need to be made. Identification and knowledge of these decisions, including the information available and the implications for the company or supply chain, will be fundamental for decision-makers to achieve the best results. In the present work, the main types of RL decisions are identified. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on the analysis of mathematical models designed as tools to aid decision making in the field of RL. Once the types of interest work to be analyzed are defined, those studies that really deal about the object of study are searched and analyzed. The decision variables that are taken at work are identified and grouped according to the type of decision and, finally, are showed the main types of decisions used in mathematical models developed in the field of RL.     Findings: The principal conclusion of the research is that the most commonly addressed decisions with mathematical models in the field of RL are those related to the network’s configuration, followed by tactical/operative decisions such as the selections of product’s treatments to realize and the policy of returns or prices, among other decisions. Originality/value: The identification of the main decisions types of the reverse logistics will allow the managers of these processes to know and understand them better, while offer an integrated vision of them, favoring the achievement of better results.

  2. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  3. Medical Specialty Decision Model: Utilizing Social Cognitive Career Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Denise D.; Borges, Nicole J.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a working model to explain medical specialty decision-making. Using Social Cognitive Career Theory, we examined personality, medical specialty preferences, job satisfaction, and expectations about specialty choice to create a conceptual framework to guide specialty choice decision-making.…

  4. Ethnographic Decision Tree Modeling: A Research Method for Counseling Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kirk A.

    2005-01-01

    This article describes ethnographic decision tree modeling (EDTM; C. H. Gladwin, 1989) as a mixed method design appropriate for counseling psychology research. EDTM is introduced and located within a postpositivist research paradigm. Decision theory that informs EDTM is reviewed, and the 2 phases of EDTM are highlighted. The 1st phase, model…

  5. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  6. A quantitative risk model for early lifecycle decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.; Cornford, S. L.; Dunphy, J.; Hicks, K.

    2002-01-01

    Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.

  7. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  8. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

  9. A binuclear Fe(III)Dy(III) single molecule magnet. Quantum effects and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferbinteanu, Marilena; Kajiwara, Takashi; Choi, Kwang-Yong; Nojiri, Hiroyuki; Nakamoto, Akio; Kojima, Norimichi; Cimpoesu, Fanica; Fujimura, Yuichi; Takaishi, Shinya; Yamashita, Masahiro

    2006-07-19

    The binuclear [FeIII(bpca)(mu-bpca)Dy(NO3)4], having Single Molecule Magnet (SMM) properties, belonging to a series of isostructural FeIIILnIII complexes (Ln = Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho) and closely related FeIILnIII chain structures, was characterized in concise experimental and theoretical respects. The low temperature magnetization data showed hysteresis and tunneling. The anomalous temperature dependence of Mössbauer spectra is related to the onset of magnetic order, consistent with the magnetization relaxation time scale resulting from AC susceptibility measurements. The advanced ab initio calculations (CASSCF and spin-orbit) revealed the interplay of ligand field, spin-orbit, and exchange effects and probed the effective Ising nature of the lowest states, involved in the SMM and tunneling effects.

  10. The role of business intelligence in decision process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Višnja Istrat

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision making is a very significant and complex function of management that requires methods and techniques that simplify the process of choosing the best alternative. In modern business, the challenge for managers is to find the alternatives for improving the decision-making process. Decisions directly affect profit generation and positioning of the company in the market. It is well-known that people dealt with the phenomenon of decision making in each phase of the development of society, which has triggered the need to learn more about this process. The main contribution of this paper is to show the significance of business intelligence tools and techniques as support to the decision making process of managers. Research results have shown that business intelligence plays an enormous role in modern decision process modeling.

  11. Data-driven Modelling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angria S, Layla; Dwi Sari, Yunita; Zarlis, Muhammad; Tulus

    2018-01-01

    The rise of the issues with the uncertainty of decision making has become a very warm conversation in operation research. Many models have been presented, one of which is with data-driven modelling (DDM). The purpose of this paper is to extract and recognize patterns in data, and find the best model in decision-making problem under uncertainty by using data-driven modeling approach with linear programming, linear and nonlinear differential equation, bayesian approach. Model criteria tested to determine the smallest error, and it will be the best model that can be used.

  12. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  13. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  14. Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanshukan Rajaratnam

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a sequence can be informative about later decisions and can, when coupled with a type of adverse selection, also inform credit risk. We show through two examples how lenders may use such information in setting their offer rates.

  15. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  16. Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tringali, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    This thesis focuses on developing a spreadsheet decision support model that can be used by combat engineer platoon and company commanders in determining the material requirements and estimated costs...

  17. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... is performed by analyzing the probabilistic linear temporal logic properties of the system as well as by analyzing the schedulers, in particular the optimal schedulers, induced by the learned models....

  18. River flow modelling using fuzzy decision trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, D.; Cluckie, I. D.; Karbassioun, D.; Lawry, J.; Krauskopf, B.

    2002-01-01

    A modern real time flood forecasting system requires its mathematical model(s) to handle highly complex rainfall runoff processes. Uncertainty in real time flood forecasting will involve a variety of components such as measurement noise from telemetry systems, inadequacy of the models, insufficiency

  19. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  20. A neural model of decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    derivative with respect to RAS:   (S1)     L = d(PC*D)/dRAS   3.1.3 Cognition (L3) Semantic memory recall in superior temporal sulcus (R) The Semantic Recollection (R) as associated with activity in the primary auditory cortex (Superior Temporal Sulcus, STS) is measured by theta-activity (Φ) in the EEG (in...... such as fairness, trust, altruism, memory, learning and knowledge. The goal of neuroeconomics is stated as to provide a descriptive decision-making theory, which is not restricted to economic theory and more realistic than that of economic man.    Reviewing how neuroscience can inform economics [Camerer et al....... The role of Hippocampus in the formation of episodic or autobiographical memories is unquestioned (M). A newer line of Hippocampal research focuses the branching between ‘familiar' and ‘novel' sensory input. ‘Novel'-perceptions arising from mismatch with existing memories mobilizes the basal flight...

  1. Modelling Eu(III) speciation in a Eu(III)/PAHA/α-Al2O3 ternary system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janot, Noemie; Reiller, Pascal E.; Benedetti, Marc F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, modelling of Eu(III) speciation in a ternary system, i.e., in presence of purified Aldrich humic acid (PAHA) and α-Al 2 O 3 , is presented. First, the mineral surface charge is measured by potentiometric titrations and then described using the CD-MUSIC model. This model is also used to describe Eu(III) binding to the α-Al 2 O 3 surface at different pH values, ionic strength and mineral concentrations. Time resolved luminescence spectroscopy (TRLS) is then used to study the binding of Eu(III) to PAHA at pH 4 with different humic acid concentrations. The spectra are used to calculate a spectroscopic 'titration curve', used to determine Eu(III)/PAHA binding parameters in the NICA-Donnan model. Following a previous study (Janot et al., Water Res. 46, 731-740), modelling of the ternary system is based upon the definition of two PAHA pools where one fraction remains in solution and the other is adsorbed onto the mineral surface, with each possessing different proton and metal binding parameters. The modification of protonation behaviour for both fractions is examined using spectrophotometric titrations of the non adsorbed PAHA fraction at different organic/mineral ratios. These data are then used to describe Eu(III) interactions in the ternary system: Eu(III) re-partitioning in the ternary system is calculated for different pH, ionic strength and PAHA concentrations, and results are compared to experimental observations. The model is in good agreement with experimental data, except at high PAHA fractionation rates. Results show that organic complexation dominates over a large pH range, with the predominant species existing as the surface-bound fraction. Above pH 8, Eu(III) seems to be mostly complexed to the mineral surface, which is in agreement with previous spectroscopic observations (Janot et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 3224-3230). (authors)

  2. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  3. Modelling the Role of Cognitive Metaphors in Joint Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ments, L.; Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a social agent model is presented for the influence of cognitive metaphors on joint decision making processes. The social agent model is based on mechanisms known from cognitive and social neuroscience and cognitive metaphor theory. The model was illustrated in particular for two

  4. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  5. Building models for marketing decisions : past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, Dick R.

    2000-01-01

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  6. Decision modeling for analyzing fire action outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald MacGregor; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2008-01-01

    A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to the fire...

  7. Mouse model of glycogen storage disease type III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kai-Ming; Wu, Jer-Yuarn; Chen, Yuan-Tsong

    2014-04-01

    Glycogen storage disease type IIIa (GSD IIIa) is caused by a deficiency of the glycogen debranching enzyme (GDE), which is encoded by the Agl gene. GDE deficiency leads to the pathogenic accumulation of phosphorylase limit dextrin (PLD), an abnormal glycogen, in the liver, heart, and skeletal muscle. To further investigate the pathological mechanisms behind this disease and develop novel therapies to treat this disease, we generated a GDE-deficient mouse model by removing exons after exon 5 in the Agl gene. GDE reduction was confirmed by western blot and enzymatic activity assay. Histology revealed massive glycogen accumulation in the liver, muscle, and heart of the homozygous affected mice. Interestingly, we did not find any differences in the general appearance, growth rate, and life span between the wild-type, heterozygous, and homozygous affected mice with ad libitum feeding, except reduced motor activity after 50 weeks of age, and muscle weakness in both the forelimb and hind legs of homozygous affected mice by using the grip strength test at 62 weeks of age. However, repeated fasting resulted in decreased survival of the knockout mice. Hepatomegaly and progressive liver fibrosis were also found in the homozygous affected mice. Blood chemistry revealed that alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activities were significantly higher in the homozygous affected mice than in both wild-type and heterozygous mice and the activity of these enzymes further increased with fasting. Creatine phosphokinase (CPK) activity was normal in young and adult homozygous affected mice. However, the activity was significantly elevated after fasting. Hypoglycemia appeared only at a young age (3 weeks) and hyperlipidemia was not observed in our model. In conclusion, with the exception of normal lipidemia, these mice recapitulate human GSD IIIa; moreover, we found that repeated fasting was detrimental to these mice. This mouse model will

  8. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  9. Hybrid Models for Sequential Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sun, Ron

    2000-01-01

    To study hybrid architectures of complex learning, especially as applied to a simulated minefield navigation task, we developed a hybrid connectionist model CLARION as a demonstration of the approach...

  10. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  11. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  12. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  13. Methodology and preliminary models for analyzing nuclear-safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judd, B.R.; Weissenberger, S.

    1978-11-01

    This report describes a general analytical tool designed with Lawrence Livermore Laboratory to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in making nuclear safeguards decisions. The approach is based on decision analysis - a quantitative procedure for making decisions under uncertain conditions. The report: describes illustrative models that quantify the probability and consequences of diverted special nuclear material and the costs of safeguarding the material; demonstrates a methodology for using this information to set safeguards regulations (safeguards criteria); and summarizes insights gained in a very preliminary assessment of a hypothetical reprocessing plant

  14. Methodology and preliminary models for analyzing nuclear safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-11-01

    This report describes a general analytical tool designed to assist the NRC in making nuclear safeguards decisions. The approach is based on decision analysis--a quantitative procedure for making decisions under uncertain conditions. The report: describes illustrative models that quantify the probability and consequences of diverted special nuclear material and the costs of safeguarding the material, demonstrates a methodology for using this information to set safeguards regulations (safeguards criteria), and summarizes insights gained in a very preliminary assessment of a hypothetical reprocessing plant

  15. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  16. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  17. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  18. Modeling Deployment Decisions for Elastic Services with ABS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einar Broch Johnsen

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The use of cloud technology can offer significant savings for the deployment of services, provided that the service is able to make efficient use of the available virtual resources to meet service-level requirements. To avoid software designs that scale poorly, it is important to make deployment decisions for the service at design time, early in the development of the service itself. ABS offers a formal, model-based approach which integrates the design of services with the modeling of deployment decisions. In this paper, we illustrate the main concepts of this approach by modeling a scalable pool of workers with an auto-scaling strategy and by using the model to compare deployment decisions with respect to client traffic with peak loads.

  19. Open Models of Decision Support Towards a Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Diasio, Stephen Ray

    2012-01-01

    Aquesta tesi presenta un marc per als models oberts de suport a les decisions en les organitzacions. El treball es vehicula a través d’un compendi d’articles on s’analitzen els fluxos d’entrada i de sortida de coneixement en les organitzacions, així como les tecnologies existents de suport a les decisions. Es presenten els factors subjacents que impulsen nous models per a formes obertes de suport a la decisió. La tesis presenta un estudi de les distintes tipologies de models de suport a les d...

  20. Consumer decision-making models within the discipline of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    models provide the possibility to understand different consumer decision processes and marketing strate- gies and that models play an important part in the es- tablishment of theory (Engel et al, ..... ated by meaning, deliberation of consequences of various alternatives and formation of intentions (Du. Plessis et al, 1991:21; ...

  1. Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Harten, Aart; Worm, J.M.; Worm, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the

  2. Modeling Conflict And Exchange In Collective Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.

    1995-01-01

    Two dynamic models of collecuve decision maklng are Introduced and lllustrated wlth a simple example. A more extensive presentation and appllcauon concerning the European Community can be found In Bueno de Mesqulta and Stokman (19941. The two dynamlc models reflect two alternative views of

  3. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  4. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  5. Integrated Environmental Modelling: human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  6. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  7. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  8. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  9. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  10. A decision model for energy resource selection in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Bing; Kocaoglu, Dundar F.; Daim, Tugrul U.; Yang Jiting

    2010-01-01

    This paper evaluates coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy resources as energy alternatives for China through use of a hierarchical decision model. The results indicate that although coal is still the major preferred energy alternative, it is followed closely by renewable energy. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the most critical criterion for energy selection is the current energy infrastructure. A hierarchical decision model is used, and expert judgments are quantified, to evaluate the alternatives. Criteria used for the evaluations are availability, current energy infrastructure, price, safety, environmental impacts and social impacts.

  11. Comprehensible knowledge model creation for cancer treatment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Ali Khan, Wajahat; Ali, Taqdir; Lee, Sungyoung; Huh, Eui-Nam; Farooq Ahmad, Hafiz; Jamshed, Arif; Iqbal, Hassan; Irfan, Muhammad; Abbas Hydari, Manzar

    2017-03-01

    A wealth of clinical data exists in clinical documents in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). This data can be used for developing knowledge-based recommendation systems that can assist clinicians in clinical decision making and education. One of the big hurdles in developing such systems is the lack of automated mechanisms for knowledge acquisition to enable and educate clinicians in informed decision making. An automated knowledge acquisition methodology with a comprehensible knowledge model for cancer treatment (CKM-CT) is proposed. With the CKM-CT, clinical data are acquired automatically from documents. Quality of data is ensured by correcting errors and transforming various formats into a standard data format. Data preprocessing involves dimensionality reduction and missing value imputation. Predictive algorithm selection is performed on the basis of the ranking score of the weighted sum model. The knowledge builder prepares knowledge for knowledge-based services: clinical decisions and education support. Data is acquired from 13,788 head and neck cancer (HNC) documents for 3447 patients, including 1526 patients of the oral cavity site. In the data quality task, 160 staging values are corrected. In the preprocessing task, 20 attributes and 106 records are eliminated from the dataset. The Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm is selected and provides 69.0% classification accuracy in predicting HNC treatment plans, consisting of 11 decision paths that yield 11 decision rules. Our proposed methodology, CKM-CT, is helpful to find hidden knowledge in clinical documents. In CKM-CT, the prediction models are developed to assist and educate clinicians for informed decision making. The proposed methodology is generalizable to apply to data of other domains such as breast cancer with a similar objective to assist clinicians in decision making and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplat, Paul; Coutts, Shaun; Buckley, Yvonne M

    2012-02-01

    Invasive plants cause substantial economic and environmental damage throughout the world. However, eradication of most invasive species is impossible and, in some cases, undesirable. An alternative is to slow the spread of an invasive species, which can delay impacts or reduce their extent. We identify three main areas where models are used extensively in the study of plant spread and its management: (i) identifying the key drivers of spread to better target management, (ii) determining the role spatial structure of landscapes plays in plant invasions, and (iii) integrating management structures and limitations to guide the implementation of control measures. We show how these three components have been approached in the ecological literature as well as their potential for improving management practices. Particularly, we argue that scientists can help managers of invasive species by providing information about plant invasion on which managers can base their decisions (i and ii) and by modeling the decision process through optimization and agent-based models (iii). Finally, we show how these approaches can be articulated for integrative studies. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

    2012-09-03

    Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the

  14. Dual processing model of medical decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical

  15. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  16. Sex differences in animal models of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Setlow, Barry

    2017-01-02

    The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism's survival and wellbeing. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision making, indicating a need for better understanding of the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered under pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include female subjects to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This Mini-Review begins by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision making are then considered. The Mini-Review concludes with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision making for understanding psychiatric conditions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Sex Differences in Animal Models of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A.; Setlow, Barry

    2016-01-01

    The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options in order to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism’s survival and well-being. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision-making, indicating the need to better understand the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered in pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include females to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This review will begin by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision-making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision- making will then be considered. The review will conclude with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision-making for understanding psychiatric conditions. PMID:27870448

  18. The decision book fifty models for strategic thinking

    CERN Document Server

    Krogerus, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? And how can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? A worldwide bestseller, The Decision Book distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses and elsewhere that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you will have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little black book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.

  19. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...... estimated from data collected from the animal or herd. State space models (SSMs) are a general tool for modeling repeated measurements over time where the model parameters can evolve dynamically. In this paper we consider methods for embedding an SSM into an MDP with finite state and action space. Different...... ways of discretizing an SSM are discussed and methods for reducing the state space of the MDP are presented. An example from dairy production is given...

  20. PHOTOIONIZATION MODELS FOR THE SEMI-FORBIDDEN C iii] 1909 EMISSION IN STAR-FORMING GALAXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaskot, A. E. [Department of Astronomy, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063 (United States); Ravindranath, S. [Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2016-12-20

    The increasing neutrality of the intergalactic medium at z  > 6 suppresses Ly α emission, and spectroscopic confirmation of galaxy redshifts requires the detection of alternative ultraviolet lines. The strong [C iii]  λ 1907+C iii]  λ 1909 doublet frequently observed in low-metallicity, actively star-forming galaxies is a promising emission feature. We present CLOUDY photoionization model predictions for C iii] equivalent widths (EWs) and line ratios as a function of starburst age, metallicity, and ionization parameter. Our models include a range of C/O abundances, dust content, and gas density. We also examine the effects of varying the nebular geometry and optical depth. Only the stellar models that incorporate binary interaction effects reproduce the highest observed C iii] EWs. The spectral energy distributions from the binary stellar population models also generate observable C iii] over a longer timescale relative to single-star models. We show that diagnostics using C iii] and nebular He ii  λ 1640 can separate star-forming regions from shock-ionized gas. We also find that density-bounded systems should exhibit weaker C iii] EWs at a given ionization parameter, and C iii] EWs could, therefore, select candidate Lyman continuum-leaking systems. In almost all models, C iii] is the next strongest line at <2700 Å after Ly α , and C iii] reaches detectable levels for a wide range of conditions at low metallicity. C iii] may therefore serve as an important diagnostic for characterizing galaxies at z  > 6.

  1. PHOTOIONIZATION MODELS FOR THE SEMI-FORBIDDEN C iii] 1909 EMISSION IN STAR-FORMING GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaskot, A. E.; Ravindranath, S.

    2016-01-01

    The increasing neutrality of the intergalactic medium at z  > 6 suppresses Ly α emission, and spectroscopic confirmation of galaxy redshifts requires the detection of alternative ultraviolet lines. The strong [C iii]  λ 1907+C iii]  λ 1909 doublet frequently observed in low-metallicity, actively star-forming galaxies is a promising emission feature. We present CLOUDY photoionization model predictions for C iii] equivalent widths (EWs) and line ratios as a function of starburst age, metallicity, and ionization parameter. Our models include a range of C/O abundances, dust content, and gas density. We also examine the effects of varying the nebular geometry and optical depth. Only the stellar models that incorporate binary interaction effects reproduce the highest observed C iii] EWs. The spectral energy distributions from the binary stellar population models also generate observable C iii] over a longer timescale relative to single-star models. We show that diagnostics using C iii] and nebular He ii  λ 1640 can separate star-forming regions from shock-ionized gas. We also find that density-bounded systems should exhibit weaker C iii] EWs at a given ionization parameter, and C iii] EWs could, therefore, select candidate Lyman continuum-leaking systems. In almost all models, C iii] is the next strongest line at <2700 Å after Ly α , and C iii] reaches detectable levels for a wide range of conditions at low metallicity. C iii] may therefore serve as an important diagnostic for characterizing galaxies at z  > 6.

  2. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Bostenaru Dan

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  3. Overcoming barriers to development of cooperative medical decision support models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Donna L; Cohen, Maurice E

    2012-01-01

    Attempts to automate the medical decision making process have been underway for the at least fifty years, beginning with data-based approaches that relied chiefly on statistically-based methods. Approaches expanded to include knowledge-based systems, both linear and non-linear neural networks, agent-based systems, and hybrid methods. While some of these models produced excellent results none have been used extensively in medical practice. In order to move these methods forward into practical use, a number of obstacles must be overcome, including validation of existing systems on large data sets, development of methods for including new knowledge as it becomes available, construction of a broad range of decision models, and development of non-intrusive methods that allow the physician to use these decision aids in conjunction with, not instead of, his or her own medical knowledge. None of these four requirements will come easily. A cooperative effort among researchers, including practicing MDs, is vital, particularly as more information on diseases and their contributing factors continues to expand resulting in more parameters than the human decision maker can process effectively. In this article some of the basic structures that are necessary to facilitate the use of an automated decision support system are discussed, along with potential methods for overcoming existing barriers.

  4. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

  5. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  6. Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

  7. The limitations of applying rational decision-making models to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this paper is to show the limitations of rational decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more specifically to the use of modern methods of contraception. In the light of factors known to influence low uptake of child spacing services in other African countries, suggestions are made to explain the ...

  8. Managing health care decisions and improvement through simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Helena Hvitfeldt; Aronsson, Håkan; Keller, Christina; Lindblad, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Simulation modeling is a way to test changes in a computerized environment to give ideas for improvements before implementation. This article reviews research literature on simulation modeling as support for health care decision making. The aim is to investigate the experience and potential value of such decision support and quality of articles retrieved. A literature search was conducted, and the selection criteria yielded 59 articles derived from diverse applications and methods. Most met the stated research-quality criteria. This review identified how simulation can facilitate decision making and that it may induce learning. Furthermore, simulation offers immediate feedback about proposed changes, allows analysis of scenarios, and promotes communication on building a shared system view and understanding of how a complex system works. However, only 14 of the 59 articles reported on implementation experiences, including how decision making was supported. On the basis of these articles, we proposed steps essential for the success of simulation projects, not just in the computer, but also in clinical reality. We also presented a novel concept combining simulation modeling with the established plan-do-study-act cycle for improvement. Future scientific inquiries concerning implementation, impact, and the value for health care management are needed to realize the full potential of simulation modeling.

  9. Derivation of Monotone Decision Models from Non-Monotone Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daniëls, H.A.M.; Velikova, M.V.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of data mining is the extraction of knowledge from databases. In practice, one often encounters difficulties with models that are constructed purely by search, without incorporation of knowledge about the domain of application.In economic decision making such as credit loan approval or

  10. Translational Models of Gambling-Related Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Catharine A; Clark, Luke

    Gambling is a harmless, recreational pastime that is ubiquitous across cultures. However, for some, gambling becomes a maladaptive and compulsive, and this syndrome is conceptualized as a behavioural addiction. Laboratory models that capture the key cognitive processes involved in gambling behaviour, and that can be translated across species, have the potential to make an important contribution to both decision neuroscience and the study of addictive disorders. The Iowa gambling task has been widely used to assess human decision-making under uncertainty, and this paradigm can be successfully modelled in rodents. Similar neurobiological processes underpin choice behaviour in humans and rats, and thus, a preference for the disadvantageous "high-risk, high-reward" options may reflect meaningful vulnerability for mental health problems. However, the choice behaviour operationalized by these tasks does not necessarily approximate the vulnerability to gambling disorder (GD) per se. We consider a number of psychological challenges that apply to modelling gambling in a translational way, and evaluate the success of the existing models. Heterogeneity in the structure of gambling games, as well as in the motivations of individuals with GD, is highlighted. The potential issues with extrapolating too directly from established animal models of drug dependency are discussed, as are the inherent difficulties in validating animal models of GD in the absence of any approved treatments for GD. Further advances in modelling the cognitive biases endemic in human decision-making, which appear to be exacerbated in GD, may be a promising line of research.

  11. Correleation of the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Models in Thermal Desktop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundsen, Ruth M.; Davis, Warren T.; Liles, Kaitlin, A. K.; McLeod, Shawn C.

    2017-01-01

    The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III was launched on February 19, 2017 and mounted to the International Space Station (ISS) to begin its three-year mission. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Correlation of the thermal model is important since the payload will be expected to survive a three-year mission on ISS under varying thermal environments. Three major thermal vacuum (TVAC) tests were completed during the development of the SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP); two subsystem-level tests and a payload-level test. Additionally, a characterization TVAC test was performed in order to verify performance of a system of heater plates that was designed to allow the IP to achieve the required temperatures during payload-level testing; model correlation was performed for this test configuration as well as those including the SAGE III flight hardware. This document presents the methods that were used to correlate the SAGE III models to TVAC at the subsystem and IP level, including the approach for modeling the parts of the payload in the thermal chamber, generating pre-test predictions, and making adjustments to the model to align predictions with temperatures observed during testing. Model correlation quality will be presented and discussed, and lessons learned during the correlation process will be shared.

  12. Trade-offs underlying maternal breastfeeding decisions: A conceptual model

    OpenAIRE

    Tully, Kristin P.; Ball, Helen L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new conceptual model that generates predictions about breastfeeding decisions and identifies interactions that affect outcomes. We offer a contextual approach to infant feeding that models multi-directional influences by expanding on the evolutionary parent–offspring conflict and situation-specific breastfeeding theories. The main hypothesis generated from our framework suggests that simultaneously addressing breastfeeding costs and benefits, in relation to how they are ...

  13. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  14. Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buede, Dennis M.; Mahoney, Suzanne; Ezell, Barry; Lathrop, John

    2012-01-01

    Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

  15. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  16. Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-06

    The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define each of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.

  17. Procedural Personas for Player Decision Modeling and Procedural Content Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer

    2016-01-01

    ." These methods for constructing procedural personas are then integrated with existing procedural content generation systems, acting as critics that shape the output of these systems, optimizing generated content for different personas and by extension, different kinds of players and their decision making styles......How can player models and artificially intelligent (AI) agents be useful in early-stage iterative game and simulation design? One answer may be as ways of generating synthetic play-test data, before a game or level has ever seen a player, or when the sampled amount of play test data is very low....... This thesis explores methods for creating low-complexity, easily interpretable, generative AI agents for use in game and simulation design. Based on insights from decision theory and behavioral economics, the thesis investigates how player decision making styles may be defined, operationalised, and measured...

  18. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains......: Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains...

  19. The protective action decision model: theoretical modifications and additional evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindell, Michael K; Perry, Ronald W

    2012-04-01

    The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) is a multistage model that is based on findings from research on people's responses to environmental hazards and disasters. The PADM integrates the processing of information derived from social and environmental cues with messages that social sources transmit through communication channels to those at risk. The PADM identifies three critical predecision processes (reception, attention, and comprehension of warnings or exposure, attention, and interpretation of environmental/social cues)--that precede all further processing. The revised model identifies three core perceptions--threat perceptions, protective action perceptions, and stakeholder perceptions--that form the basis for decisions about how to respond to an imminent or long-term threat. The outcome of the protective action decision-making process, together with situational facilitators and impediments, produces a behavioral response. In addition to describing the revised model and the research on which it is based, this article describes three applications (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and identifies some of the research needed to address unresolved issues. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. [A model of shared decision-making in medical rehabilitation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Körner, M

    2009-06-01

    In this article, an adjusted model of shared decision-making is presented for the sector of medical rehabilitation. This model of interaction describes shared decision-making as a process between physician and patient on the basis of shared information and with both parties equally and actively involved. The typical elements of this interaction model can be transferred to other professionals in the health care sector (i. e. therapists, nurses, social workers, etc.) as well as to the interaction between these different groups of health professionals working as a team. The idea of patient orientation is supplemented with the aspect of relations between the different groups of health professionals, hence establishing patient-oriented interaction inside the organization. In order to strengthen internal patient orientation through a process of shared decision-making between different health professionals (providers), a co-operative leadership style is required in the rehabilitation clinic. Creating the internal conditions for shared decision-making (internal patient orientation) is a prerequisite for considering needs and expectations of the patient within the treatment process (external patient orientation). Health professionals need to display the ability to create these internal conditions to allow for improvement of patient orientated treatment in terms of an integrated patient orientation. Training of the providers is a prerequisite for implementation of an integrated patient orientation in medical rehabilitation. Once a higher level of patient orientation is achieved, through participation in the provider-patient-relationship and communication between the providers within the team, an improved quality of decision-making, a higher level of patient and employee satisfaction and more positive treatment outcomes can be assumed.

  1. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  2. Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2018-01-01

    According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  3. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  4. Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2010-01-01

    A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation

  5. The Cognitive Complexity in Modelling the Group Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barna Iantovics

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates for some basic contextual factors (such
    us the problem complexity, the users' creativity and the problem space complexity the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the group decision processes (GDP in e-meetings. The analysis is done by conducting a socio-simulation experiment for an envisioned collaborative software tool that acts as a stigmergic environment for modelling the GDP. The simulation results revels some interesting design guidelines for engineering some contextual functionalities that minimize the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the GDP.

  6. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  7. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  8. Modeling and Testing Landslide Hazard Using Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutasem Sh. Alkhasawneh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a decision tree model for specifying the importance of 21 factors causing the landslides in a wide area of Penang Island, Malaysia. These factors are vegetation cover, distance from the fault line, slope angle, cross curvature, slope aspect, distance from road, geology, diagonal length, longitude curvature, rugosity, plan curvature, elevation, rain perception, soil texture, surface area, distance from drainage, roughness, land cover, general curvature, tangent curvature, and profile curvature. Decision tree models are used for prediction, classification, and factors importance and are usually represented by an easy to interpret tree like structure. Four models were created using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, Classification and Regression Tree (CRT, and Quick-Unbiased-Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST. Twenty-one factors were extracted using digital elevation models (DEMs and then used as input variables for the models. A data set of 137570 samples was selected for each variable in the analysis, where 68786 samples represent landslides and 68786 samples represent no landslides. 10-fold cross-validation was employed for testing the models. The highest accuracy was achieved using Exhaustive CHAID (82.0% compared to CHAID (81.9%, CRT (75.6%, and QUEST (74.0% model. Across the four models, five factors were identified as most important factors which are slope angle, distance from drainage, surface area, slope aspect, and cross curvature.

  9. A Model for an Intelligent Support Decision System in Aquaculture

    OpenAIRE

    Novac Ududec, Cornelia / C

    2009-01-01

    The paper purpose an intelligent software system agents–based to support decision in aquculture and the approach of fish diagnosis with informatics methods, techniques and solutions. A major purpose is to develop new methods and techniques for quick fish diagnosis, treatment and prophyilaxis at infectious and parasite-based known disorders, that may occur at fishes raised in high density in intensive raising systems. But, the goal of this paper is to presents a model of an intelligent agents-...

  10. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Chung-Min; Hsieh, Ching-Lin; Chang, Kuei-Lun

    2013-01-01

    The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP) is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise compa...

  11. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  12. LEADERSHIP MODELS AND EFFICIENCY IN DECISION CRISIS SITUATIONS, DURING DISASTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAIME RIQUELME CASTAÑEDA

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article explains how an effective leadership is made on a team during an emergency, during a decision crisis in the context of a disaster. From the approach of the process, we analyze some variables such as flexibility, value congruence, rationality, politicization, and quality of design. To achieve that, we made a fi eld work with the information obtained from the three Emergency headquarters deployed by the Chilean Armed Forces, due to the effects of the 8.8 earthquake on February 27th 2010. The data is analyzed through econometric technics. The results suggested that the original ideas and the rigorous analysis are the keys to secure the quality of the decision. It also, made possible to unveil the fact, that to have efficiency in operations in a disaster, it requires a big presence of a vision, mission, and inspiration about a solid and pre-existing base of goals and motivations. Finally, we can fi nd the support to the relationship between kinds of leadership and efficiency on crisis decision-making process of the disaster and opens a space to build a decision making theoretic model.

  13. An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costi, P.; Minciardi, R.; Robba, M.; Rovatti, M.; Sacile, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function takes into account all possible economic costs, whereas constraints arise from technical, normative, and environmental issues. Specifically, pollution and impacts, induced by the overall solid waste management system, are considered through the formalization of constraints on incineration emissions and on negative effects produced by disposal or other particular treatments

  14. Clinical Decision Support Model to Predict Occlusal Force in Bruxism Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanathornwong, Bhornsawan; Suebnukarn, Siriwan

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a decision support model for the prediction of occlusal force from the size and color of articulating paper markings in bruxism patients. We used the information from the datasets of 30 bruxism patients in which digital measurements of the size and color of articulating paper markings (12-µm Hanel; Coltene/Whaledent GmbH, Langenau, Germany) on canine protected hard stabilization splints were measured in pixels (P) and in red (R), green (G), and blue (B) values using Adobe Photoshop software (Adobe Systems, San Jose, CA, USA). The occlusal force (F) was measured using T-Scan III (Tekscan Inc., South Boston, MA, USA). The multiple regression equation was applied to predict F from the P and RGB. Model evaluation was performed using the datasets from 10 new patients. The patient's occlusal force measured by T-Scan III was used as a 'gold standard' to compare with the occlusal force predicted by the multiple regression model. The results demonstrate that the correlation between the occlusal force and the pixels and RGB of the articulating paper markings was positive (F = 1.62×P + 0.07×R -0.08×G + 0.08×B + 4.74; R 2 = 0.34). There was a high degree of agreement between the occlusal force of the patient measured using T-Scan III and the occlusal force predicted by the model (kappa value = 0.82). The results obtained demonstrate that the multiple regression model can predict the occlusal force using the digital values for the size and color of the articulating paper markings in bruxism patients.

  15. Clinical Decision Support Model to Predict Occlusal Force in Bruxism Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanathornwong, Bhornsawan

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a decision support model for the prediction of occlusal force from the size and color of articulating paper markings in bruxism patients. Methods We used the information from the datasets of 30 bruxism patients in which digital measurements of the size and color of articulating paper markings (12-µm Hanel; Coltene/Whaledent GmbH, Langenau, Germany) on canine protected hard stabilization splints were measured in pixels (P) and in red (R), green (G), and blue (B) values using Adobe Photoshop software (Adobe Systems, San Jose, CA, USA). The occlusal force (F) was measured using T-Scan III (Tekscan Inc., South Boston, MA, USA). The multiple regression equation was applied to predict F from the P and RGB. Model evaluation was performed using the datasets from 10 new patients. The patient's occlusal force measured by T-Scan III was used as a ‘gold standard’ to compare with the occlusal force predicted by the multiple regression model. Results The results demonstrate that the correlation between the occlusal force and the pixels and RGB of the articulating paper markings was positive (F = 1.62×P + 0.07×R –0.08×G + 0.08×B + 4.74; R2 = 0.34). There was a high degree of agreement between the occlusal force of the patient measured using T-Scan III and the occlusal force predicted by the model (kappa value = 0.82). Conclusions The results obtained demonstrate that the multiple regression model can predict the occlusal force using the digital values for the size and color of the articulating paper markings in bruxism patients. PMID:29181234

  16. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  17. Decision tree models for data mining in hit discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammann, Felix; Drewe, Juergen

    2012-04-01

    Decision tree induction (DTI) is a powerful means of modeling data without much prior preparation. Models are readable by humans, robust and easily applied in real-world applications, features that are mutually exclusive in other commonly used machine learning paradigms. While DTI is widely used in disciplines ranging from economics to medicine, they are an intriguing option in pharmaceutical research, especially when dealing with large data stores. This review covers the automated technologies available for creating decision trees and other rules efficiently, even from large datasets such as chemical libraries. The authors discuss the need for properly documented and validated models. Lastly, the authors cover several case studies in hit discovery, drug metabolism and toxicology, and drug surveillance, and compare them with other established techniques. DTI is a competitive and easy-to-use tool in basic research as well as in hit and drug discovery. Its strengths lie in its ability to handle all sorts of different data formats, the visual nature of the models, and the small computational effort needed for implementation in real-world systems. Limitations include lack of robustness and over-fitted models for certain types of data. As with any modeling technique, proper validation and quality measures are of utmost importance. © 2012 Informa UK, Ltd.

  18. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  19. Spectroscopic investigations on the complexation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) with organic model ligands and their binding mode in human urine (in vitro)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, Anne

    2011-01-01

    In case of incorporation, trivalent actinides (An(III)) and lanthanides (Ln(III)) pose a serious health risk to humans. An(III) are artificial, highly radioactive elements which are mainly produced during the nuclear fuel cycle in nuclear power plants. Via hazardous accidents or nonprofessional storage of radioactive waste, they can be released in the environment and enter the human food chain. In contrast, Ln(III) are nonradioactive, naturally occurring elements with multiple applications in technique and medicine. Consequently it is possible that humans get in contact and incorporate both, An(III) and Ln(III). Therefore, it is of particular importance to elucidate the behaviour of these elements in the human body. While macroscopic processes such as distribution, accumulation and excretion are studied quite well, knowledge about the chemical binding form (speciation) of An(III) and Ln(III) in various body fluids is still sparse. In the present work, for the first time, the speciation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) in natural human urine (in vitro) has been investigated spectroscopically and the formed complex identified. For this purpose, also basic investigations on the complex formation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) in synthetic model urine as well as with the urinary relevant, organic model ligands urea, alanine, phenylalanine, threonine and citrate have been performed and the previously unknown complex stability constants determined. Finally, all experimental results were compared to literature data and predictions calculated by thermodynamic modelling. Since both, Cm(III) and Eu(III), exhibit unique luminescence properties, particularly the suitability of time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TRLFS) could be demonstrated as a method to investigate these metal ions in untreated, complex biofluids. The results of this work provide new scientific findings on the biochemical reactions of An(III) and Ln(III) in human body fluids on a molecular scale and

  20. Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulga, M. K.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

  1. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  2. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  3. Modeling of shallot supply decisions: the case of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabawati, N. F.; Pujawan, I. N.; Widodo, E.

    2018-04-01

    To optimize supply chain role, the players of supply chain need to integrate its function. One of the general problems in supply chain was the unbalanced quantity of sales and quantity of supply. This paper focused on modelling a simple method to manage the gap between the demand and the supply. The gap might cause an overstock or a loss. This paper propose a buffer quantity in order to handle the gap by using import decision. The case study was about shallot supply - demand in Indonesia. In this study we model the supply decisions of shallot in Indonesia. While the demand was quite stable over time, the supply was heavily affected by the yield from the farms. The shortage could result in the government importing shallot from other countries. Hence, the government also needed to have a proper buffering mechanism in order to ensure the supply was sufficient and the price was quite stable. The initial model of this research was built by stochastic parameters and the extended model to gain pricing mechanism was built by Shapley value principal with modification. The primary variables were supply quantity, demand quantity, buffer and purchased quantity (stock needed), actual consumption, and price for three players. The validation proved that the result of price at each player presented a significant difference. Therefore, the model could be applied to decide the stock quantity needed and to keep the price stable at each player especially at the end player which would influence the market price.

  4. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  5. Ising model for collective decision making during group motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkoviezky, Itai; Gov, Nir; Couzin, Iain

    Collective decision making is a key feature during natural motion of animal groups and is also crucial for human groups. This phenomenon can be exemplified by the scenario of two subgroups that hold conflicting preferred directions of motion. The constraint of group cohesion drives the motion either towards a compromise or towards one of the preferred targets. The transition between compromise and decision has been found in simulations of flock models, but the nature of this transition is not well understood. We present a minimal spin model for this system where we interpret the spin-spin interaction as a social force. This model exhibits both first and second order transitions. The group motion changes from size-dependent diffusion at high temperatures to run-and-tumble motion below the critical temperature. In the presence of minority and majority subgroups, we find that there is a trade-off between the speed of reaching a target and the accuracy. We then compare the results of the spin model to detailed simulations of a flock model, and find overall very similar dynamics, with the role of the temperature taken by the inverse of the number of uninformed individuals.

  6. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  7. Three-dimensional (3-D) Circumplex Model and revised scoring of FACES III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, D H

    1991-03-01

    FACES III can, however, continue to be a useful scale now that the Circumplex Model has been expanded into a three-dimensional design. Past and future studies would benefit from using FACES III as a linear dimension with high scores representing Balanced types and low scores representing Extreme types. This approach means that many past studies with FACES III need to be re-analyzed and/or re-interpreted in light of this 3-D Model. This revised scoring will significantly increase the number of studies that support the basic hypotheses of the Circumplex model, that Balanced families tend to function in more effective ways. It is clear from more recent work with the Clinical Rating Scale (CRS) that the lack of support for the curvilinear hypotheses of the Circumplex Model is due to the limitations of the FACES instrument and not the underlying theoretical model. The CRS clearly demonstrated the curvilinear pattern that has been hypothesized. It is important that future studies using FACES III analyze data in a linear way that fits with the three-dimensional model. In this way, there is a better match conceptually and methodologically between FACES III and the Circumplex Model. It is also highly recommended that future studies use both the self-report of FACES and the observational approaches to family assessment of the Clinical Rating Scale. This combined approach will help advance the field conceptually, methodologically, and clinically.

  8. A naturalistic decision making model for simulated human combatants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HUNTER, KEITH O.; HART, WILLIAM E.; FORSYTHE, JAMES C.

    2000-01-01

    The authors describe a naturalistic behavioral model for the simulation of small unit combat. This model, Klein's recognition-primed decision making (RPD) model, is driven by situational awareness rather than a rational process of selecting from a set of action options. They argue that simulated combatants modeled with RPD will have more flexible and realistic responses to a broad range of small-scale combat scenarios. Furthermore, they note that the predictability of a simulation using an RPD framework can be easily controlled to provide multiple evaluations of a given combat scenario. Finally, they discuss computational issues for building an RPD-based behavior engine for fully automated combatants in small conflict scenarios, which are being investigated within Sandia's Next Generation Site Security project

  9. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Building Administrator. Edition III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful educator evaluation and support system will help improve teaching, learning, and school leadership. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Building Administrator Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all building administrators improve.…

  10. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  11. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes, Volume III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghani, M.U.; Hobbs, M.L.; Hamblen, D.G. [and others

    1993-08-01

    A generalized one-dimensional, heterogeneous, steady-state, fixed-bed model for coal gasification and combustion is presented. The model, FBED-1, is a design and analysis tool that can be used to simulate a variety of gasification, devolatilization, and combustion processes. The model considers separate gas and solid temperatures, axially variable solid and gas flow rates, variable bed void fraction, coal drying, devolatilization based on chemical functional group composition, depolymerization, vaporization and crosslinking, oxidation, and gasification of char, and partial equilibrium in the gas phase.

  12. The analysis of the capacity of the selected measures of decision-making models in companies

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Kościelniak; Beata Skowron-Grabowska; Sylwia Łęgowik-Świącik; Małgorzata Łęgowik-Małolepsza

    2015-01-01

    The paper aims at the analysis of the information capacity of selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in the analyzed companies. In the paper there are presented the idea and concepts of decision-making models. There have been discussed the selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in enterprises. In the final part of the paper there has been held the quantification of decision- making models in the investigated cement industry companies. To mee...

  13. Mental Models Theory and Military Decision-Marking: A Pilot Experimental Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sparkes, Jason

    2003-01-01

    ...) and in the military (e.g., the USS Vincennes incident). In particular, construction of the mental models used when making critical decisions is vulnerable to both problem complexity and logically conflicting (false) information...

  14. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  15. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni [Istituto di Econometria e CRANEC, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: giovanni.marseguerra@unicatt.it; Cortelezzi, Flavia [Dipartimento di Diritto ed Economia delle Persone e delle Imprese, Universita dell' Insubria (Italy)]. E-mail: flavia.cortelezzi@uninsubria.it; Dominioni, Armando [CORE-Catholique de Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)]. E-mail: dominioni@core.ucl.ac.be

    2006-08-15

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost.

  16. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni; Cortelezzi, Flavia; Dominioni, Armando

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost

  17. Optimal statistical decisions about some alternative financial models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vajda, Igor; Stummer, W.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 137, č. 2 (2007), s. 441-471 ISSN 0304-4076 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/02/1391; GA AV ČR IAA1075403 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Black-Scholes-Merton models * Relative entropies * Power divergences * Hellinger intergrals * Total variation distance * Bayesian decisions * Neyman-Pearson testing Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.990, year: 2007

  18. Early diagnosis model for meningitis supports public health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Close, Rebecca M; Ejidokun, Oluwatoyin O; Verlander, Neville Q; Fraser, Graham; Meltzer, Margie; Rehman, Yasmin; Muir, Peter; Ninis, Nelly; Stuart, James M

    2011-07-01

    To develop a predictive model for rapid differential diagnosis of meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia to support public health decisions on chemoprophylaxis for contacts. Prospective study of suspected cases of acute meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia admitted to hospitals in the South West, West Midlands and London Regions of England from July 2008 to June 2009. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory variables on admission were recorded. Logistic regression was used to derive a predictive model. Of the 719 suspect cases reported, 385 confirmed cases were included in analysis. Peripheral blood polymorphonuclear count of >16 × 10(9)/l, serum C-reactive protein of >100 mg/l and haemorrhagic rash were strongly and independently associated with diagnosis of bacterial meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia. Using a simple scoring system, the presence of any one of these factors gave a probability of >95% in predicting the final diagnosis. We have developed a model using laboratory and clinical factors, but not dependent on availability of CSF, for differentiating acute bacterial from viral meningitis within a few hours of admission to hospital. This scoring system is recommended in public health management of suspected cases of meningitis and meningococcal septicaemia to inform decisions on chemoprophylaxis. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Hannah; Rumpff, Libby; Yen, Jian D L; Robinson, Doug; Wintle, Brendan A

    2017-12-01

    Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state-and-transition, species-distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade-offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision-support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade-offs exist between competing

  20. Expanding business-to-business customer relationships : modeling the customer's upgrade decision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolton, R.; Lemon, K.N.; Verhoef, P.C.

    This article develops a model of a business customer's decision to upgrade service contracts conditional on the decision to renew the contract. It proposes that the firm's upgrade decision is influenced by (1) decision-maker perceptions of the relationship with the supplier, (2) contract-level

  1. Modeling information flows in clinical decision support: key insights for enhancing system effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medlock, Stephanie; Wyatt, Jeremy C.; Patel, Vimla L.; Shortliffe, Edward H.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2016-01-01

    A fundamental challenge in the field of clinical decision support is to determine what characteristics of systems make them effective in supporting particular types of clinical decisions. However, we lack such a theory of decision support itself and a model to describe clinical decisions and the

  2. Modeling violations of the race model inequality in bimodal paradigms: co-activation from decision and non-decision components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eZehetleitner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The redundant-signals paradigm (RSP is designed to investigate response behavior in perceptual tasks in which response-relevant targets are defined by either one or two features, or modalities. The common finding is that responses are speeded for redundantly compared to singly defined targets. This redundant-signals effect (RSE can be accounted for by race models if the response times do not violate the race model inequality (RMI. When there are violations of the RMI, race models are effectively excluded as a viable account of the RSE. The common alternative is provided by co-activation accounts, which assume that redundant target signals are integrated at some processing stage. However, ‘co-activation’ has mostly been only indirectly inferred and the accounts have only rarely been explicitly modeled; if they were modeled, the RSE has typically been assumed to have a decisional locus. Yet, there are also indications in the literature that the RSE might originate, at least in part, at a non-decisional or motor stage. In the present study, using a distribution analysis of sequential-sampling models (ex-Wald and Ratcliff Diffusion model, the locus of the RSE was investigated for two bimodal (audio-visual detection tasks that strongly violated the RMI, indicative of substantial co-activation. Three model variants assuming different loci of the RSE were fitted to the quantile reaction time proportions: a decision, a non-decision, and a combined variant both to vincentized group as well as individual data. The results suggest that for the two bimodal detection tasks, co-activation has a shared decisional and non-decisional locus. These findings point to the possibility that the mechanisms underlying the RSE depend on the specifics (task, stimulus, conditions, etc. of the experimental paradigm.

  3. Assessment of the potential allergenicity of ice structuring protein type III HPLC 12 using the FAO/WHO 2001 decision tree for novel foods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindslev-Jensen, C; Sten, E; Earl, L K

    2003-01-01

    , methods for assessing degradability under standardised conditions, assays for detection of specific IgE against the protein (Maxisorb RAST) and histamine release from human basophils. In the present paper we describe the serum screening phase of the study and discuss the overall application...... of the decision tree to the assessment of the potential allergenicity of ISP Type III. In an accompanying paper [Food Chem. Toxicol. 40 (2002) 965], we detail the specific methodology used for the sequence analysis and assessment of resistance to pepsin-catalysed proteolysis of this protein. The ISP showed...

  4. Carbon dioxide stripping in aquaculture -- part III: model verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colt, John; Watten, Barnaby; Pfeiffer, Tim

    2012-01-01

    Based on conventional mass transfer models developed for oxygen, the use of the non-linear ASCE method, 2-point method, and one parameter linear-regression method were evaluated for carbon dioxide stripping data. For values of KLaCO2 down at higher values of KLaCO2. How to correct KLaCO2 for gas phase enrichment remains to be determined. The one-parameter linear regression model was used to vary the C*CO2 over the test, but it did not result in a better fit to the experimental data when compared to the ASCE or fixed C*CO2 assumptions.

  5. Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

    1978-12-01

    Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

  6. Toward a Model of Vocational Persistence Among Seminarians: Part III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, James L.

    1970-01-01

    Assumptions underlying model rely on Cartwright and Harary's (1960) definition of Heider's cognitive balance theory and Festinger's (1957) cognitive dissonance theory. Diagrams illustrate degree of balance between personal and reference group (curch authorities, classmates, family) attitudes. Parts I and II in earlier issues. (CJ)

  7. Computer - based modeling in extract sciences research -III ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Molecular modeling techniques have been of great applicability in the study of the biological sciences and other exact science fields like agriculture, mathematics, computer science and the like. In this write up, a list of computer programs for predicting, for instance, the structure of proteins has been provided. Discussions on ...

  8. Multicriteria decision group model for the selection of suppliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Hazin Alencar

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Several authors have been studying group decision making over the years, which indicates how relevant it is. This paper presents a multicriteria group decision model based on ELECTRE IV and VIP Analysis methods, to those cases where there is great divergence among the decision makers. This model includes two stages. In the first, the ELECTRE IV method is applied and a collective criteria ranking is obtained. In the second, using criteria ranking, VIP Analysis is applied and the alternatives are selected. To illustrate the model, a numerical application in the context of the selection of suppliers in project management is used. The suppliers that form part of the project team have a crucial role in project management. They are involved in a network of connected activities that can jeopardize the success of the project, if they are not undertaken in an appropriate way. The question tackled is how to select service suppliers for a project on behalf of an enterprise that assists the multiple objectives of the decision-makers.Vários autores têm estudado decisão em grupo nos últimos anos, o que indica a relevância do assunto. Esse artigo apresenta um modelo multicritério de decisão em grupo baseado nos métodos ELECTRE IV e VIP Analysis, adequado aos casos em que se tem uma grande divergência entre os decisores. Esse modelo é composto por dois estágios. No primeiro, o método ELECTRE IV é aplicado e uma ordenação dos critérios é obtida. No próximo estágio, com a ordenação dos critérios, o método VIP Analysis é aplicado e as alternativas são selecionadas. Para ilustrar o modelo, uma aplicação numérica no contexto da seleção de fornecedores em projetos é realizada. Os fornecedores que fazem parte da equipe do projeto têm um papel fundamental no gerenciamento de projetos. Eles estão envolvidos em uma rede de atividades conectadas que, caso não sejam executadas de forma apropriada, podem colocar em risco o sucesso do

  9. Decision modeling in donation after circulatory death liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Kenneth A; Camilleri-Brennan, Julian; Knight, Stephen R; Drake, Thomas M; Ots, Riinu; Shaw, Catherine A; Wigmore, Stephen J; Harrison, Ewen M

    2017-05-01

    Donation after circulatory death (DCD) liver allografts are increasingly used for transplantation. However, the posttransplantation clinical and quality of life outcomes of DCD recipients are traditionally considered to be inferior compared with donation after brain death (DBD) allograft recipients. Decision making for such marginal organs can be difficult. This study investigated the optimal decision to accept or decline a DCD liver allograft for a patient based on their current health. A Markov decision process model was constructed to predict the 5-year clinical course of patients on the liver transplant waiting list. Clinical outcomes were determined from the UK transplant registry or appropriate literature. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were determined using the condition-specific short form of liver disease quality of life (SF-LDQoL) questionnaire. There were 293/374 (78.3%) eligible patients who completed the SF-LDQoL questionnaire. A total of 73 respondents (24.9%) were before transplant and 220 were after transplant (DBD recipient, 56.3%; DCD recipient, 8.5%; ischemic cholangiopathy patient, 2.4%; retransplant recipient, 7.9%). Predictive modeling indicated that QALYs gained at 5 years were significantly higher in DCD recipients (3.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.44-4.10) compared with those who remained on the waiting list for a DBD transplant with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores of 15-20 (3.36; 95% CI, 3.28-3.43), or >20 (3.07; 95% CI, 3.00-3.14). There was no significant advantage for individuals with MELD scores transplant waiting list with MELD scores >15 should receive an offered DCD allograft based on the QALYs gained at 5 years. This analysis only accounts for donor-recipient risk pairings seen in current practice. The optimal decision for patients with MELD scores organ was accepted. Liver Transplantation 23 594-603 2017 AASLD. © 2016 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  10. Decision Models for Determining the Optimal Life Test Sampling Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nechval, Nicholas A.; Nechval, Konstantin N.; Purgailis, Maris; Berzins, Gundars; Strelchonok, Vladimir F.

    2010-11-01

    Life test sampling plan is a technique, which consists of sampling, inspection, and decision making in determining the acceptance or rejection of a batch of products by experiments for examining the continuous usage time of the products. In life testing studies, the lifetime is usually assumed to be distributed as either a one-parameter exponential distribution, or a two-parameter Weibull distribution with the assumption that the shape parameter is known. Such oversimplified assumptions can facilitate the follow-up analyses, but may overlook the fact that the lifetime distribution can significantly affect the estimation of the failure rate of a product. Moreover, sampling costs, inspection costs, warranty costs, and rejection costs are all essential, and ought to be considered in choosing an appropriate sampling plan. The choice of an appropriate life test sampling plan is a crucial decision problem because a good plan not only can help producers save testing time, and reduce testing cost; but it also can positively affect the image of the product, and thus attract more consumers to buy it. This paper develops the frequentist (non-Bayesian) decision models for determining the optimal life test sampling plans with an aim of cost minimization by identifying the appropriate number of product failures in a sample that should be used as a threshold in judging the rejection of a batch. The two-parameter exponential and Weibull distributions with two unknown parameters are assumed to be appropriate for modelling the lifetime of a product. A practical numerical application is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach.

  11. Knowledge Management Portal: A Simplified Model to Help Decision Makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, I.; Hernandes Tabares, R.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present a simplified model that could help the nuclear industry to keep the expertise of safeguards professionals in touch with the state of the art, and also to have available information in the Portal of Knowledge Management. It can also provide indicators and general data for decision makers. Authors have developed the concept based on their own experience through systems running in hydroelectric and gas fired plants, and one exclusive system that manage all courses in one University. It is under development a Portal of Knowledge Management for NPP dealing with information obtained of Strategic Plans, Budgets and Economics, Operation Performance, Maintenance and Surveillance Plans, Training and Education Programs, QA Programs, Operational Experience, Safety Culture, and Engineering of Human Factors. This model will provide indicators for decision makers. Training and education module is prepared according to profile of each individual and his attributes, tasks and capabilities, and training and education programmes. The system could apply self-assessment questionnaires; immersive learning using media (video) classes, and test applications using questions randomly selected from data bank, as well as could make applications to certificate people. All these data are analyzed and generate indicators about strongest and weakness points. Managers could have indication of individual's deficiency even though in training programmes on a real time basis. Another tool that could be applied to the model is the remote operation of supervision equipment. The model is developed using web-based tools, like ASP.NET encrypted by 128 bits, and web site https. Finally, it is important to stress that the model can be customized according to industry preference. (author)

  12. Improving Hybrid III injury assessment in steering wheel rim to chest impacts using responses from finite element Hybrid III and human body model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmqvist, Kristian; Davidsson, Johan; Mendoza-Vazquez, Manuel; Rundberget, Peter; Svensson, Mats Y; Thorn, Stefan; Törnvall, Fredrik

    2014-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the quality of injury risk assessments in steering wheel rim to chest impacts when using the Hybrid III crash test dummy in frontal heavy goods vehicle (HGV) collision tests. Correction factors for chest injury criteria were calculated as the model chest injury parameter ratios between finite element (FE) Hybrid III, evaluated in relevant load cases, and the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS). This is proposed to be used to compensate Hybrid III measurements in crash tests where steering wheel rim to chest impacts occur. The study was conducted in an FE environment using an FE-Hybrid III model and the THUMS. Two impactor shapes were used, a circular hub and a long, thin horizontal bar. Chest impacts at velocities ranging from 3.0 to 6.0 m/s were simulated at 3 impact height levels. A ratio between FE-Hybrid III and THUMS chest injury parameters, maximum chest compression C max, and maximum viscous criterion VC max, were calculated for the different chest impact conditions to form a set of correction factors. The definition of the correction factor is based on the assumption that the response from a circular hub impact to the middle of the chest is well characterized and that injury risk measures are independent of impact height. The current limits for these chest injury criteria were used as a basis to develop correction factors that compensate for the limitations in biofidelity of the Hybrid III in steering wheel rim to chest impacts. The hub and bar impactors produced considerably higher C max and VC max responses in the THUMS compared to the FE-Hybrid III. The correction factor for the responses of the FE-Hybrid III showed that the criteria responses for the bar impactor were consistently overestimated. Ratios based on Hybrid III and THUMS responses provided correction factors for the Hybrid III responses ranging from 0.84 to 0.93. These factors can be used to estimate C max and VC max values when the Hybrid III is

  13. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  14. Asymmetric Gepner models III. B-L lifting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gato-Rivera, B. [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands); Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain); Schellekens, A.N., E-mail: t58@nikhef.n [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands); Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain); IMAPP, Radboud Universiteit, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2011-06-21

    In the same spirit as heterotic weight lifting, B-L lifting is a way of replacing the superfluous and ubiquitous U(1){sub B-L} with something else with the same modular properties, but different conformal weights and ground state dimensions. This method works in principle for all variants of (2,2) constructions, such as orbifolds, Calabi-Yau manifolds, free bosons and fermions and Gepner models, since it only modifies the universal SO(10)xE{sub 8} part of the CFT. However, it can only yield chiral spectra if the 'internal' sector of the theory provides a simple current of order 5. Here we apply this new method to Gepner models. Including exceptional invariants, 86 of them have the required order 5 simple current, and 69 of these yield chiral spectra. Three family spectra occur abundantly.

  15. Adiabatic analysis of collisions. III. Remarks on the spin model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fano, U.

    1979-01-01

    Analysis of a spin-rotation model illustrates how transitions between adiabatic channel states stem from the second, rather than from the first, rate of change of these states, provided that appropriate identification of channels and scaling of the independent variable are used. These remarks, like the earlier development of a post-adiabatic approach, aim at elucidating the surprising success of approximate separation of variables in the treatment of complex mechanical systems

  16. ANALISIS IKLAN SIMPATI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN CONSUMER DECISION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reni Shinta Dewi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In order that position of a brand always engage in the mind of consumers, the company does not only act positioning strategy, but they have to give the right information about their product, and advertising on the television is one of the most effective promotion media. The main reaction of advertisement is purchase, but it’s happened in the end of the long process before the consumer makes their decision. Usually the effect of advertising communication is to measure the awareness, knowledge, preference and confidence. One of model can be used to measure the advertising effectiveness is Consumer Decision Model (CMD by Howard, Shay and Green. The findings indicated that information, brand recognition, attitude, and confidence are identified as intervening variable which can strongly effect information to customer’s intention. Structural analysis seen that the biggest influence to intention shown by variable of advertisement message through attitude and confidence. The ability of advertisement to create attitude and confidence which supporting a product oftentimes hinging to consumer’s attitude and confidence to advertisement itself. The advertisement which evaluated better can yield positive attitude to product. Even sometimes, that unwelcome advertisement can succeed. This matter happens because the advertisement schema is salience in consumer’s view. The fact said that attitude developed by brand is more difficult than customer’s confidence. To create consumer’s attitude which is direct to consumer’s intention, continuity and intensity of commercials are recommended.

  17. Implementation of Dynamic Smart Decision Model for Vertical Handoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahni, Nidhi

    2010-11-01

    International Mobile Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT Advanced), better known as 4G is the next level of evolution in the field of wireless communications. 4G Wireless networks enable users to access information anywhere, anytime, with a seamless connection to a wide range of information and services, and receiving a large volume of information, data, pictures, video and thus increasing the demand for High Bandwidth and Signal Strength. The mobility among various networks is achieved through Vertical Handoff. Vertical handoffs refer to the automatic failover from one technology to another in order to maintain communication. The heterogeneous co-existence of access technologies with largely different characteristics creates a decision problem of determining the "best" available network at "best" time for handoff. In this paper, we implemented the proposed Dynamic and Smart Decision model to decide the "best" network interface and "best" time moment to handoff. The proposed model implementation not only demonstrates the individual user needs but also improve the whole system performance i.e. Quality of Service by reducing the unnecessary handoffs and maintain mobility.

  18. A global magnetic topology model for magnetic clouds. III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hidalgo, M. A.

    2014-01-01

    In two previous papers, we presented a global model for the analysis of magnetic clouds (MCs), where the three components of the magnetic field were fitted to the corresponding Geocentric Solar Ecliptic experimental data, obtaining reliable information, for example, about the orientation of these events in the interplanetary medium. That model, due to its non-force-free character, (∇p ≠ 0), could be extended to determine the plasma behavior. In the present work, we develop that extension, now including the plasma behavior inside the cloud through the analysis of the plasma pressure, and define a fitting procedure where the pressure and the magnetic field components are fitted simultaneously. After deducing the magnetic field topology and the current density components of the model, we calculate the expression of the pressure tensor and, in particular, its trace. In light of the results, we conclude that incorporating the plasma behavior in the analysis of the MCs can give us a better scenario in which to understand the physical mechanisms involved in the evolution of such magnetic structures in the interplanetary medium.

  19. Some five-dimensional Bianchi type-iii string cosmological models in general relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, G.C.; Biswal, S.K.; Mohanty, G.; Rameswarpatna, Bhubaneswar

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we have constructed some five-dimensional Bianchi type-III cosmological models in general relativity when source of gravitational field is a massive string. We obtained different classes of solutions by considering different functional forms of metric potentials. It is also observed that one of the models is not physically acceptable and the other models possess big-bang singularity. The physical and kinematical behaviors of the models are discussed

  20. A Composite Modelling Approach to Decision Support by the Use of the CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a decision support system for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The composite modelling approach, COSIMA, combines a cost-benefit analysis by use of the CBA-DK model with multi-criteria analysis applying the AHP and SMARTER techniques. The modelling uncertaintie...

  1. The joint WAIS-III and WMS-III factor structure: development and cross-validation of a six-factor model of cognitive functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulsky, David S; Price, Larry R

    2003-06-01

    During the standardization of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (3rd ed.; WAIS-III) and the Wechsler Memory Scale (3rd ed.; WMS-III) the participants in the normative study completed both scales. This "co-norming" methodology set the stage for full integration of the 2 tests and the development of an expanded structure of cognitive functioning. Until now, however, the WAIS-III and WMS-III had not been examined together in a factor analytic study. This article presents a series of confirmatory factor analyses to determine the joint WAIS-III and WMS-III factor structure. Using a structural equation modeling approach, a 6-factor model that included verbal, perceptual, processing speed, working memory, auditory memory, and visual memory constructs provided the best model fit to the data. Allowing select subtests to load simultaneously on 2 factors improved model fit and indicated that some subtests are multifaceted. The results were then replicated in a large cross-validation sample (N = 858).

  2. Comparison of hospital charge prediction models for gastric cancer patients: neural network vs. decision tree models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jing; Li, Man; Hu, Yun-tao; Zhu, Yu

    2009-09-14

    In recent years, artificial neural network is advocated in modeling complex multivariable relationships due to its ability of fault tolerance; while decision tree of data mining technique was recommended because of its richness of classification arithmetic rules and appeal of visibility. The aim of our research was to compare the performance of ANN and decision tree models in predicting hospital charges on gastric cancer patients. Data about hospital charges on 1008 gastric cancer patients and related demographic information were collected from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2005 to 2007 and preprocessed firstly to select pertinent input variables. Then artificial neural network (ANN) and decision tree models, using same hospital charge output variable and same input variables, were applied to compare the predictive abilities in terms of mean absolute errors and linear correlation coefficients for the training and test datasets. The transfer function in ANN model was sigmoid with 1 hidden layer and three hidden nodes. After preprocess of the data, 12 variables were selected and used as input variables in two types of models. For both the training dataset and the test dataset, mean absolute errors of ANN model were lower than those of decision tree model (1819.197 vs. 2782.423, 1162.279 vs. 3424.608) and linear correlation coefficients of the former model were higher than those of the latter (0.955 vs. 0.866, 0.987 vs. 0.806). The predictive ability and adaptive capacity of ANN model were better than those of decision tree model. ANN model performed better in predicting hospital charges of gastric cancer patients of China than did decision tree model.

  3. Comparison of hospital charge prediction models for gastric cancer patients: neural network vs. decision tree models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Yun-tao

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, artificial neural network is advocated in modeling complex multivariable relationships due to its ability of fault tolerance; while decision tree of data mining technique was recommended because of its richness of classification arithmetic rules and appeal of visibility. The aim of our research was to compare the performance of ANN and decision tree models in predicting hospital charges on gastric cancer patients. Methods Data about hospital charges on 1008 gastric cancer patients and related demographic information were collected from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2005 to 2007 and preprocessed firstly to select pertinent input variables. Then artificial neural network (ANN and decision tree models, using same hospital charge output variable and same input variables, were applied to compare the predictive abilities in terms of mean absolute errors and linear correlation coefficients for the training and test datasets. The transfer function in ANN model was sigmoid with 1 hidden layer and three hidden nodes. Results After preprocess of the data, 12 variables were selected and used as input variables in two types of models. For both the training dataset and the test dataset, mean absolute errors of ANN model were lower than those of decision tree model (1819.197 vs. 2782.423, 1162.279 vs. 3424.608 and linear correlation coefficients of the former model were higher than those of the latter (0.955 vs. 0.866, 0.987 vs. 0.806. The predictive ability and adaptive capacity of ANN model were better than those of decision tree model. Conclusion ANN model performed better in predicting hospital charges of gastric cancer patients of China than did decision tree model.

  4. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  5. Computer modelling of the chemical speciation of Americium (III) in human body fluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Shu-bin; Lei, Jia-rong; Wang, He-yi; Zhong, Zhi-jing; Yang, Yong; Du, Yang

    2008-01-01

    A multi-phase equilibrium model consisted of multi-metal ion and low molecular mass ligands in human body fluid has been constructed to discuss the speciation of Am 3+ in gastric juice, sweat, interstitial fluid, intracellular fluid and urine of human body, respectively. Computer simulations indicated that the major Am(III)P Species were Am 3+ , [Am Cl] 2+ and [AmH 2 PO 4 ] 2+ at pH 4 became dominant with higher pH value when [Am] = 1 x 10 -7 mol/L in gastric juice model and percentage of AmPO 4 increased with [Am]. in sweat system, Am(III) existed with soluble species at pH 4.2∼pH 7.5 when [Am] = 1 x 10 -7 mol/L and Am(III) existed with Am 3+ and [Am OH] 2+ at pH 6.5 when [Am] -10 mol/L or [Am] > 5 x 10 -8 mol/L . With addition of EDTA, the Am(III) existed with soluble [Am EDTA] - whereas the Am(III) existed with insoluble AmPO 4 when [Am] > 1 x 10 -12 mol/L at interstitial fluid. The major Am(III) species was AmPO 4 at pH 7.0 and [Am]=4 x 10 -12 mol/L in intracellular fluid, which implied Am(III) represented strong cell toxicity. The percentage of Am(III) soluble species increased at lower pH hinted that the Am(III), in the form of aerosol, ingested by macrophage, could released into interstitial fluid and bring strong toxicity to skeleton system. The soluble Am(III) species was dominant when pH 4 when pH > 4.5 when [Am] = 1 x 10 -10 Pmol/L in human urine, so it was favorable to excrete Am(III) from kidney by taking acid materials. (author)

  6. Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

  7. Neurologic abnormalities in mouse models of the lysosomal storage disorders mucolipidosis II and mucolipidosis III γ.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A Idol

    Full Text Available UDP-GlcNAc:lysosomal enzyme N-acetylglucosamine-1-phosphotransferase is an α2β2γ2 hexameric enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of the mannose 6-phosphate targeting signal on lysosomal hydrolases. Mutations in the α/β subunit precursor gene cause the severe lysosomal storage disorder mucolipidosis II (ML II or the more moderate mucolipidosis III alpha/beta (ML III α/β, while mutations in the γ subunit gene cause the mildest disorder, mucolipidosis III gamma (ML III γ. Here we report neurologic consequences of mouse models of ML II and ML III γ. The ML II mice have a total loss of acid hydrolase phosphorylation, which results in depletion of acid hydrolases in mesenchymal-derived cells. The ML III γ mice retain partial phosphorylation. However, in both cases, total brain extracts have normal or near normal activity of many acid hydrolases reflecting mannose 6-phosphate-independent lysosomal targeting pathways. While behavioral deficits occur in both models, the onset of these changes occurs sooner and the severity is greater in the ML II mice. The ML II mice undergo progressive neurodegeneration with neuronal loss, astrocytosis, microgliosis and Purkinje cell depletion which was evident at 4 months whereas ML III γ mice have only mild to moderate astrocytosis and microgliosis at 12 months. Both models accumulate the ganglioside GM2, but only ML II mice accumulate fucosylated glycans. We conclude that in spite of active mannose 6-phosphate-independent targeting pathways in the brain, there are cell types that require at least partial phosphorylation function to avoid lysosomal dysfunction and the associated neurodegeneration and behavioral impairments.

  8. Neurologic abnormalities in mouse models of the lysosomal storage disorders mucolipidosis II and mucolipidosis III γ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idol, Rachel A; Wozniak, David F; Fujiwara, Hideji; Yuede, Carla M; Ory, Daniel S; Kornfeld, Stuart; Vogel, Peter

    2014-01-01

    UDP-GlcNAc:lysosomal enzyme N-acetylglucosamine-1-phosphotransferase is an α2β2γ2 hexameric enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of the mannose 6-phosphate targeting signal on lysosomal hydrolases. Mutations in the α/β subunit precursor gene cause the severe lysosomal storage disorder mucolipidosis II (ML II) or the more moderate mucolipidosis III alpha/beta (ML III α/β), while mutations in the γ subunit gene cause the mildest disorder, mucolipidosis III gamma (ML III γ). Here we report neurologic consequences of mouse models of ML II and ML III γ. The ML II mice have a total loss of acid hydrolase phosphorylation, which results in depletion of acid hydrolases in mesenchymal-derived cells. The ML III γ mice retain partial phosphorylation. However, in both cases, total brain extracts have normal or near normal activity of many acid hydrolases reflecting mannose 6-phosphate-independent lysosomal targeting pathways. While behavioral deficits occur in both models, the onset of these changes occurs sooner and the severity is greater in the ML II mice. The ML II mice undergo progressive neurodegeneration with neuronal loss, astrocytosis, microgliosis and Purkinje cell depletion which was evident at 4 months whereas ML III γ mice have only mild to moderate astrocytosis and microgliosis at 12 months. Both models accumulate the ganglioside GM2, but only ML II mice accumulate fucosylated glycans. We conclude that in spite of active mannose 6-phosphate-independent targeting pathways in the brain, there are cell types that require at least partial phosphorylation function to avoid lysosomal dysfunction and the associated neurodegeneration and behavioral impairments.

  9. Thermodynamic model for solution behavior and solid-liquid equilibrium in Na-Al(III)-Fe(III)-Cr(III)-Cl-H2O system at 25°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Laurent; Christov, Christomir; Lassin, Arnault; Azaroual, Mohamed

    2018-03-01

    The knowledge of the thermodynamic behavior of multicomponent aqueous electrolyte systems is of main interest in geo-, and environmental-sciences. The main objective of this study is the development of a high accuracy thermodynamic model for solution behavior, and highly soluble M(III)Cl3(s) (M= Al, Fe, Cr) minerals solubility in Na-Al(III)-Cr(III)-Fe(III)-Cl-H2O system at 25°C. Comprehensive thermodynamic models that accurately predict aluminium, chromium and iron aqueous chemistry and M(III) mineral solubilities as a function of pH, solution composition and concentration are critical for understanding many important geochemical and environmental processes involving these metals (e.g., mineral dissolution/alteration, rock formation, changes in rock permeability and fluid flow, soil formation, mass transport, toxic M(III) remediation). Such a model would also have many industrial applications (e.g., aluminium, chromium and iron production, and their corrosion, solve scaling problems in geothermal energy and oil production). Comparisons of solubility and activity calculations with the experimental data in binary and ternary systems indicate that model predictions are within the uncertainty of the data. Limitations of the model due to data insufficiencies are discussed. The solubility modeling approach, implemented to the Pitzer specific interaction equations is employed. The resulting parameterization was developed for the geochemical Pitzer formalism based PHREEQC database.

  10. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  11. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Xingquan [GREGOR, University Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Paris (France)]. E-mail: wangxingquan@gmail.com

    2006-07-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  12. Utility Function for modeling Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti

    2016-01-01

    To assist in the decision making process, several multicriteria methods have been proposed. However, the existing methods assume a single decision-maker and do not consider decision under risk, which is better addressed by Game Theory. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a Utility Function that makes it possible to model Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games. The advantage of using Game Theory for solving Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems is to evaluate th...

  13. Development of a clinical decision model for thyroid nodules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eberhardt John

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thyroid nodules represent a common problem brought to medical attention. Four to seven percent of the United States adult population (10–18 million people has a palpable thyroid nodule, however the majority (>95% of thyroid nodules are benign. While, fine needle aspiration remains the most cost effective and accurate diagnostic tool for thyroid nodules in current practice, over 20% of patients undergoing FNA of a thyroid nodule have indeterminate cytology (follicular neoplasm with associated malignancy risk prevalence of 20–30%. These patients require thyroid lobectomy/isthmusectomy purely for the purpose of attaining a definitive diagnosis. Given that the majority (70–80% of these patients have benign surgical pathology, thyroidectomy in these patients is conducted principally with diagnostic intent. Clinical models predictive of malignancy risk are needed to support treatment decisions in patients with thyroid nodules in order to reduce morbidity associated with unnecessary diagnostic surgery. Methods Data were analyzed from a completed prospective cohort trial conducted over a 4-year period involving 216 patients with thyroid nodules undergoing ultrasound (US, electrical impedance scanning (EIS and fine needle aspiration cytology (FNA prior to thyroidectomy. A Bayesian model was designed to predict malignancy in thyroid nodules based on multivariate dependence relationships between independent covariates. Ten-fold cross-validation was performed to estimate classifier error wherein the data set was randomized into ten separate and unique train and test sets consisting of a training set (90% of records and a test set (10% of records. A receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC curve of these predictions and area under the curve (AUC were calculated to determine model robustness for predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules. Results Thyroid nodule size, FNA cytology, US and EIS characteristics were highly predictive of

  14. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  15. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-17

    PERSONNEL RECOVERY: USING GAME THEORY TO MODEL STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE CONTEMPORARY OPERATING ENVIRONMENT A thesis...Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...As a flexible and adaptive strategic decision-making tool, game theory offers a logical way to graphically represent and compare all strategy

  16. Integrating Model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume III. User's Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, M.L.; Hutzler, M.J.

    1979-03-01

    Volume III of the six-volume series documenting the Integrating Model of PIES provides a potential PIES user with a description of how PIES operates with particular emphasis on the possible variations in assumptions and data that can be made in specifying alternative scenarios. PIES is described as it existed on January 1, 1978. The introductory chapter is followed by Section II, an overview of the structure and components of PIES. Section III discusses each of the PIES components in detail; describes the Demand Model; contains a description of the models, assumptions, and data which provide supply side inputs to the PIES Integrating Model; and concludes with a discussion of those aspects of PIES which extend the scope of the analysis beyond the national energy market. Section IV discusses two reports produced by the PIES Integrating Model: the PIES Integrating Model Report and the Coal Transportation Report. (MCW)

  17. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zargari Marandi, Ramtin; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  18. Evaluating FACES III and the Circumplex Model: 2,440 families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, R G; Harris, R N; Forte, J A; Robinson, M

    1991-03-01

    Previous evaluations of the Circumplex Model's curvilinear hypothesis using FACES instruments have yielded conflicting results. A review of the different research procedures and samples used in those investigations revealed that none of the studies had samples large and/or heterogenous enough to test the curvilinear hypothesis adequately. The present study evaluates the curvilinear hypothesis of family functioning and the concurrent validity of FACES III with a sample of optimal size (N = 2,440 families) and diversity. The lack of support for the curvilinear hypothesis in this "greenhouse" sample is explained by different findings for the two FACES III subscales. There was no relationship between the study's measures of well-being and the adaptability subscale and a linear relationship between these measures and the cohesion subscale. Implications of these findings for the continuing use of the FACES III and for the Circumplex Model of Marital and Family Systems are discussed.

  19. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  20. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  1. A decision-making model based on a spiking neural circuit and synaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hui; Bu, Yijie; Dai, Dawei

    2017-10-01

    To adapt to the environment and survive, most animals can control their behaviors by making decisions. The process of decision-making and responding according to cues in the environment is stable, sustainable, and learnable. Understanding how behaviors are regulated by neural circuits and the encoding and decoding mechanisms from stimuli to responses are important goals in neuroscience. From results observed in Drosophila experiments, the underlying decision-making process is discussed, and a neural circuit that implements a two-choice decision-making model is proposed to explain and reproduce the observations. Compared with previous two-choice decision making models, our model uses synaptic plasticity to explain changes in decision output given the same environment. Moreover, biological meanings of parameters of our decision-making model are discussed. In this paper, we explain at the micro-level (i.e., neurons and synapses) how observable decision-making behavior at the macro-level is acquired and achieved.

  2. Developing a Decision Model for Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) Proposal Selection

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dawley, Lyle M; Marentette, Lenore A; Long, A. M

    2008-01-01

    This research uses decision analysis to develop a structured, repeatable and most importantly defensible decision model for the evaluation of proposed IED defeat solutions submitted to the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO...

  3. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  4. Crisis Decision Making Through a Shared Integrative Negotiation Mental Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Santen, W.; Jonker, C.M.; Wijngaards, N.

    2009-01-01

    Decision making during crises takes place in (multi-agency) teams, in a bureaucratic political context. As a result, the common notion that during crises decision making should be done in line with a Command & Control structure is invalid. This paper shows that the best way for crisis decision

  5. Introducing Complex Decision Models to the Decision Maker with Computer Software - The Profile Distance Method (PDM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Bernroider

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we demonstrate how the profile distance method was transformed into a software environment enabling the decision maker to utilize a complex decision making tool without any advanced knowledge of the underlying mathematical and technical features. We present theoretical and technical aspects as well as contextual and usage related information from the viewpoint of the decision maker. Preliminary empirical results suggest that the developed software component is effective in terms of platform independence, usability and intuitive interface design. The data showed a good rating for usefulness, which, however, was targeted as the main goal for further development.

  6. Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

    2007-07-01

    We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

  7. Concentrated Language Encounter Instruction Model III in Reading and Creative Writing Abilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Promnont, Piyapong; Rattanavich, Saowalak

    2015-01-01

    The research is aimed to study the development of eleventh grade students' reading, creative writing abilities, satisfaction taught through the concentrated language encounter instruction method, CLE model III. One experimental group time series design was used, and the data was analyzed by MANOVA with repeated measures, t-test for one-group…

  8. Tilted Bianchi Type III Wet Dark Fluid Cosmological Model in Saez and Ballester Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Subrata Kumar; Kantila, Endale Nigatu; Gebru, Dawit Melese

    2016-01-01

    Tilted Bianchi-III wet dark fluid cosmological model is investigated in the frame work of Saez and Ballester theory (Phys. Lett. A. 113:467, 1986). Exact solutions to the field equations are derived when the metric potentials are functions of cosmic time only. Some physical and geometrical properties of the solutions are also discussed.

  9. An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

    2004-01-01

    The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

  10. An optimal decision making model for supporting week hospital management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conforti, Domenico; Guerriero, Francesca; Guido, Rosita; Cerinic, Marco Matucci; Conforti, Maria Letizia

    2011-03-01

    Week Hospital is an innovative inpatient health care organization and management, by which hospital stay services are planned in advance and delivered on week-time basis to elective patients. In this context, a strategic decision is the optimal clinical management of patients, and, in particular, devising efficient and effective admission and scheduling procedures, by tackling different requirements such as beds' availability, diagnostic resources, and treatment capabilities. The main aim is to maximize the patient flow, by ensuring the delivery of all clinical services during the week. In this paper, the optimal management of Week Hospital patients is considered. We have developed and validated an innovative integer programming model, based on clinical resources allocation and beds utilization. In particular, the model aims at scheduling Week Hospital patients' admission/discharge, possibly reducing the length of stay on the basis of an available timetable of clinical services. The performance of the model has been evaluated, in terms of efficiency and robustness, by considering real data coming from a Week Hospital Rheumatology Division. The experimental results have been satisfactory and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  11. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murshid, Mohsen Ali; Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the 'persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model', the stimuli-response marketing model', the 'agency theory', the theory of planned behaviour,' and 'social power theory,' in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  12. Models for Editorial Decision Making: The Benefits of Semi-Formality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Philip

    1978-01-01

    Examines two common informal models for editorial decision making-- the referendum model and the target group model--and suggests a prioritization model that offers greater precision at the price of a modest increase in formality. (GW)

  13. Functional Freedom: A Psychological Model of Freedom in Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Stephan; Hiemisch, Anette

    2017-07-05

    The freedom of a decision is not yet sufficiently described as a psychological variable. We present a model of functional decision freedom that aims to fill that role. The model conceptualizes functional freedom as a capacity of people that varies depending on certain conditions of a decision episode. It denotes an inner capability to consciously shape complex decisions according to one's own values and needs. Functional freedom depends on three compensatory dimensions: it is greatest when the decision-maker is highly rational, when the structure of the decision is highly underdetermined, and when the decision process is strongly based on conscious thought and reflection. We outline possible research questions, argue for psychological benefits of functional decision freedom, and explicate the model's implications on current knowledge and research. In conclusion, we show that functional freedom is a scientific variable, permitting an additional psychological foothold in research on freedom, and that is compatible with a deterministic worldview.

  14. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  15. Thermodynamic model for solution behavior and solid-liquid equilibrium in Na-Al(III-Fe(III-Cr(III-Cl-H2O system at 25°C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Laurent

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge of the thermodynamic behavior of multicomponent aqueous electrolyte systems is of main interest in geo-, and environmental-sciences. The main objective of this study is the development of a high accuracy thermodynamic model for solution behavior, and highly soluble M(IIICl3(s (M= Al, Fe, Cr minerals solubility in Na-Al(III-Cr(III-Fe(III-Cl-H2O system at 25°C. Comprehensive thermodynamic models that accurately predict aluminium, chromium and iron aqueous chemistry and M(III mineral solubilities as a function of pH, solution composition and concentration are critical for understanding many important geochemical and environmental processes involving these metals (e.g., mineral dissolution/alteration, rock formation, changes in rock permeability and fluid flow, soil formation, mass transport, toxic M(III remediation. Such a model would also have many industrial applications (e.g., aluminium, chromium and iron production, and their corrosion, solve scaling problems in geothermal energy and oil production. Comparisons of solubility and activity calculations with the experimental data in binary and ternary systems indicate that model predictions are within the uncertainty of the data. Limitations of the model due to data insufficiencies are discussed. The solubility modeling approach, implemented to the Pitzer specific interaction equations is employed. The resulting parameterization was developed for the geochemical Pitzer formalism based PHREEQC database.

  16. Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems. (authors)

  17. Type III intermittency: a nonlinear dynamic model of EEG burst suppression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rae-Grant, A D; Kim, Y W

    1994-01-01

    Burst suppression electroencephalograms from 9 comatose patients have been studied using nonlinear dynamic techniques. These EEG records show many dynamical features characteristic of nonlinear systems, including sensitive dependence on initial conditions, self-organization, similarity across scales, and intermittency. Histograms of burst durations showed an asymmetric distribution with a decreasing tail of increasing duration. Interpreting the histograms from the standpoint of intermittency classifications of iterated dynamical maps, the absence of any conspicuous maximal cut-off duration suggests a type III intermittency. The power-law exponent of the decreasing tail is -3/2 for type III intermittency in the large scale sample size limit, and we have found the EEGs to be consistent with type III intermittency behavior. We have also developed a nonlinear algorithm which models burst suppression pattern based on a low dimensional return map. Burst suppression pattern appears to be the constrained activity of a nonlinear dynamical system at the transition to chaos.

  18. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  19. A novel model surgery technique for LeFort III advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachiramon, Amornpong; Yen, Stephen L-K; Lypka, Michael; Bindignavale, Vijay; Hammoudeh, Jeffrey; Reinisch, John; Urata, Mark M

    2007-09-01

    Current techniques for model surgery and occlusal splint fabrication lack the ability to mark, measure and plan the position of the orbital rim for LeFort III and Monobloc osteotomies. This report describes a model surgery technique for planning the three dimensional repositioning of the orbital rims. Dual orbital pointers were used to mark the infraorbital rim during the facebow transfer. These pointer positions were transferred onto the surgical models in order to follow splint-determined movements. Case reports are presented to illustrate how the model surgery technique was used to differentiate the repositioning of the orbital rim from the occlusal correction in single segment and combined LeFort III/LeFort I osteotomies.

  20. Air quality and climate change, Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia III) - Part 1: Overview and model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng; Han, Zhiwei; Liu, Zirui; Li, Meng; Xin, Jinyuan; Tao, Zhining; Li, Jiawei; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Huang, Kan; Dong, Xinyi; Zhuang, Bingliang; Li, Shu; Ge, Baozhu; Wu, Qizhong; Cheng, Yafang; Wang, Yuesi; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Fu, Joshua S.; Wang, Tijian; Chin, Mian; Woo, Jung-Hun; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Zifa; Carmichael, Gregory R.

    2018-04-01

    Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating high aerosol pollution in the North China Plain region during wintertime haze events and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative and microphysical feedbacks. A comprehensive overview of the MICS-Asia III Topic 3 study design, including descriptions of participating models and model inputs, the experimental designs, and results of model evaluation, are presented. Six modeling groups from China, Korea and the United States submitted results from seven applications of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Results are compared to meteorology and air quality measurements, including data from the Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China (CARE-China) and the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The correlation coefficients between the multi-model ensemble mean and the CARE-China observed near-surface air pollutants range from 0.51 to 0.94 (0.51 for ozone and 0.94 for PM2.5) for January 2010. However, large discrepancies exist between simulated aerosol chemical compositions from different models. The coefficient of variation (SD divided by the mean) can reach above 1.3 for sulfate in Beijing and above 1.6 for nitrate and organic aerosols in coastal regions, indicating that these compositions are less consistent from different models. During clean periods, simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs) from different models are similar, but peak values differ during severe haze events, which can be explained by the differences in simulated inorganic aerosol concentrations and the hygroscopic growth efficiency (affected by varied relative humidity). These differences in composition and AOD suggest that future models can be improved by including new heterogeneous or aqueous pathways for sulfate and nitrate formation under hazy conditions, a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation chemical

  1. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Colleen T; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Suited and Unsuited Hybrid III Impact Testing and Finite Element Model Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, C.; Somers, J. T.; Baldwin, M. A.; Wells, J. A.; Newby, N.; Currie, N. J.

    2016-01-01

    NASA spacecraft design requirements for occupant protection are a combination of the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criteria and injury assessment reference values (IARV) extracted from anthropomorphic test devices (ATD). For the ATD IARVs, the requirements specify the use of the 5th percentile female Hybrid III and the 95th percentile male Hybrid III. Each of these ATDs is required to be fitted with an articulating pelvis (also known as the aerospace pelvis) and a straight spine. The articulating pelvis is necessary for the ATD to fit into spacecraft seats, while the straight spine is required as injury metrics for vertical accelerations are better defined for this configuration. Sled testing of the Hybrid III 5th Percentile Female Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) was performed at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WAPFB). Two 5th Percentile ATDs were tested, the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) and NASA owned Hybrid III ATDs with aerospace pelvises. Testing was also conducted with a NASA-owned 95th Percentile Male Hybrid III with aerospace pelvis at WPAFB. Testing was performed using an Orion seat prototype provided by Johnson Space Center (JSC). A 5-point harness comprised of 2 inch webbing was also provided by JSC. For suited runs, a small and extra-large Advanced Crew Escape System (ACES) suit and helmet were also provided by JSC. Impact vectors were combined frontal/spinal and rear/lateral. Some pure spinal and rear axis testing was also performed for model validation. Peak accelerations ranged between 15 and 20-g. This range was targeted because the ATD responses fell close to the IARV defined in the Human-Systems Integration Requirements (HSIR) document. Rise times varied between 70 and 110 ms to assess differences in ATD responses and model correlation for different impact energies. The purpose of the test series was to evaluate the Hybrid III ATD models in Orion-specific landing orientations both with and without a spacesuit. The results of these tests were used

  3. Prognostic risk models for transplant decision-making in myelofibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Boluda, Juan-Carlos; Pereira, Arturo; Correa, Juan-Gonzalo; Alvarez-Larrán, Alberto; Ferrer-Marín, Francisca; Raya, José-María; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Velez, Patricia; Pérez-Encinas, Manuel; Estrada, Natalia; García-Gutiérrez, Valentín; Fox, María-Laura; Payer, Angel; Kerguelen, Ana; Cuevas, Beatriz; Durán, María-Antonia; Ramírez, María-José; Gómez-Casares, María-Teresa; Mata-Vázquez, María-Isabel; Mora, Elvira; Gómez, Montse; Cervantes, Francisco

    2018-05-01

    Prognostic models are widely used in clinical practice for transplant decision-making in myelofibrosis (MF). We have compared the performance of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), dynamic IPSS (DIPSS), and DIPSS-plus in a series of 544 patients with primary or secondary MF aged ≤ 70 years at the time of diagnosis. The median projected survival of the overall series was 9.46 years (95% confidence interval 7.44-10.59). Median survival for the highest risk groups was less than 4 years in the three prognostic models. By contrast, the projected survival for patients in the intermediate-2 categories by the IPSS, DIPSS, and DIPSS-plus was 6.6, 5.6, and 6.5 years, respectively. The number of patients in the intermediate-2 and high-risk categories was smaller in the DIPSS than in the IPSS or the DIPSS-plus. The IPSS and DIPSS-plus were the best models to discriminate between the intermediate-1 and intermediate-2 risk categories, which is a critical cut-off point for patient selection to transplant. Among patients assigned at diagnosis to the intermediate-2 or high-risk groups by the IPSS, DIPSS, and DIPSS-plus, only 17, 21, and 20%, respectively, were subsequently transplanted. In conclusion, in our contemporary series of younger MF patients only the highest risk categories of the current prognostication systems have a median survival below the 5-year threshold recommended for considering transplantation. Patient selection for transplantation can significantly differ depending on which prognostication model is used for disease risk stratification.

  4. Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

    1988-01-01

    A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

  5. A decision support model for improving a multi-family housing complex based on CO2 emission from electricity consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong

    2012-12-15

    The number of deteriorated multi-family housing complexes in South Korea continues to rise, and consequently their electricity consumption is also increasing. This needs to be addressed as part of the nation's efforts to reduce energy consumption. The objective of this research was to develop a decision support model for determining the need to improve multi-family housing complexes. In this research, 1664 cases located in Seoul were selected for model development. The research team collected the characteristics and electricity energy consumption data of these projects in 2009-2010. The following were carried out in this research: (i) using the Decision Tree, multi-family housing complexes were clustered based on their electricity energy consumption; (ii) using Case-Based Reasoning, similar cases were retrieved from the same cluster; and (iii) using a combination of Multiple Regression Analysis, Artificial Neural Network, and Genetic Algorithm, the prediction performance of the developed model was improved. The results of this research can be used as follows: (i) as basic research data for continuously managing several energy consumption data of multi-family housing complexes; (ii) as advanced research data for predicting energy consumption based on the project characteristics; (iii) as practical research data for selecting the most optimal multi-family housing complex with the most potential in terms of energy savings; and (iv) as consistent and objective criteria for incentives and penalties. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael. Bevers

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

  7. A procurement decision model for a video rental store — A case study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... still utilise his/her experience to acquire new movie titles. The procurement decision model, however, does assist the decision making process by presenting a point of departure from which procurement decisions may be made. Keywords: Inventory management, video rental industry, procurement strategy. ORiON Vol.

  8. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  9. Judgment and Decision Making in Outdoor Adventure Leadership: A Dual-Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, Clinton A.

    2016-01-01

    From an examination of the current textbooks and literature concerning judgment and decision-making models used in outdoor adventure leadership, it is easy to see that they are still deeply rooted in the classical decision-making theory. In this article, I will (a) outline the importance of good judgment and decision making in an outdoor adventure…

  10. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  11. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  12. Decision-Making Models in a Tunisian University: Towards a Framework for Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khefacha, I.; Belkacem, L.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates how decisions are made in Tunisian public higher education establishments. Some factors are identified as having a potentially significant impact on the odds that the decision-making process follows the characteristics of one of the most well known decision-making models: collegial, political, bureaucratic or anarchical…

  13. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murshid M

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  14. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

  15. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  16. Simulation model for wind energy storage systems. Volume III. Program descriptions. [SIMWEST CODE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warren, A.W.; Edsinger, R.W.; Burroughs, J.D.

    1977-08-01

    The effort developed a comprehensive computer program for the modeling of wind energy/storage systems utilizing any combination of five types of storage (pumped hydro, battery, thermal, flywheel and pneumatic). An acronym for the program is SIMWEST (Simulation Model for Wind Energy Storage). The level of detail of SIMWEST is consistent with a role of evaluating the economic feasibility as well as the general performance of wind energy systems. The software package consists of two basic programs and a library of system, environmental, and load components. Volume III, the SIMWEST program description contains program descriptions, flow charts and program listings for the SIMWEST Model Generation Program, the Simulation program, the File Maintenance program and the Printer Plotter program. Volume III generally would not be required by SIMWEST user.

  17. Regulatory activity based risk model identifies survival of stage II and III colorectal carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gang; Dong, Chuanpeng; Wang, Xing; Hou, Guojun; Zheng, Yu; Xu, Huilin; Zhan, Xiaohui; Liu, Lei

    2017-11-17

    Clinical and pathological indicators are inadequate for prognosis of stage II and III colorectal carcinoma (CRC). In this study, we utilized the activity of regulatory factors, univariate Cox regression and random forest for variable selection and developed a multivariate Cox model to predict the overall survival of Stage II/III colorectal carcinoma in GSE39582 datasets (469 samples). Patients in low-risk group showed a significant longer overall survival and recurrence-free survival time than those in high-risk group. This finding was further validated in five other independent datasets (GSE14333, GSE17536, GSE17537, GSE33113, and GSE37892). Besides, associations between clinicopathological information and risk score were analyzed. A nomogram including risk score was plotted to facilitate the utilization of risk score. The risk score model is also demonstrated to be effective on predicting both overall and recurrence-free survival of chemotherapy received patients. After performing Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) between high and low risk groups, we found that several cell-cell interaction KEGG pathways were identified. Funnel plot results showed that there was no publication bias in these datasets. In summary, by utilizing the regulatory activity in stage II and III colorectal carcinoma, the risk score successfully predicts the survival of 1021 stage II/III CRC patients in six independent datasets.

  18. Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model with Fuzzy Time Weight Scheme

    OpenAIRE

    Chin-Yao Low; Sung-Nung Lin

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we purpose a common fuzzy multiple criteria decision making model. A brand new concept - fuzzy time weighted scheme is adopted for considering in the model to establish a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making with time weight (FMCDMTW) model. A real case of fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) problems to be considering in this study. The performance evaluation of auction websites based on all criteria proposed in related literature. Obviously, the problem under in...

  19. Making ethical choices: a comprehensive decision-making model for Canadian psychologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjistavropoulos, T; Malloy, D C

    2000-05-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical augmentation of the seven-step decision-making model outlined in the Canadian Code of Ethics for Psychologists. We propose that teleological, deontological, and existential ethical perspectives should be taken into account in the decision-making process. We also consider the influence of individual, issue-specific, significant-other, situational, and external factors on ethical decision-making. This theoretical analysis demonstrates the richness and complexity of ethical decision-making.

  20. Modelling of the costs of decision support for small and medium-sized enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viera Tomišová

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The support of decision-making activities in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME has its specific features. When suggesting steps for the implementation of decision-support tools in the enterprise, we identified two main ways of decision-making support based on the data analysis: ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning without BI (Business Intelligence and ERP with BI. In our contribution, we present costs models of both mentioned decision support systems and their practical interpretation.

  1. A Typology of Career Decision Status: Validity Extension of the Vocational Decision Status Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanberg, Connie R.; Muchinsky, Paul M.

    1992-01-01

    College students (390) completed scales assessing 10 dimensions of vocational indecision and 9 personality constructs. Cluster-analytic procedures revealed four-cluster solution, with clusters being differentiated on basis of vocational decidedness and personal concern over stage of career decision making. Resulting cluster solution was…

  2. Bayesian Decision Theory Guiding Educational Decision-Making: Theories, Models and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yilin

    2016-01-01

    Given the importance of education and the growing public demand for improving education quality under tight budget constraints, there has been an emerging movement to call for research-informed decisions in educational resource allocation. Despite the abundance of rigorous studies on the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of educational…

  3. A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, M.-L.; Ma Hwongwen; Yang, W.-F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model

  4. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  5. NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM) Modeling of the DEMO III Experimental Unmanned Ground Vehicle (XUV)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vong, Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The Advanced Weapons Concepts Branch, Army Research Laboratory (ARL), was asked to assess and evaluate the predicted cross-country performance of the current DEMO III Experimental Unmanned Ground Vehicle (XUV...

  6. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  7. Parametric vs. Nonparametric Regression Modelling within Clinical Decision Support

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan; Zvárová, Jana

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2017), s. 21-27 ISSN 1805-8698 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-01251S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : decision support systems * decision rules * statistical analysis * nonparametric regression Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability

  8. Designing a decision support model for the LNG market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelen, Steve; Dullaert, Wout

    2010-01-01

    As the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is supply-driven and subject to longterm contracts, both liquefaction companies and shipowners need to make strategic decisions on fleet chartering requirements. These planning decisions become ever more difficult in light of the transformations permeating

  9. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces ...

  10. Decision support telemedicine systems: A conceptual model and reusable templates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nannings, Barry; Abu-Hanna, A.

    2006-01-01

    Decision support telemedicine systems (DSTSs) are systems combining elements from telemedicine and clinical decision support systems. Although emerging more, these types of systems have not been given much attention in the literature. Our objective is to define the term DSTS, to propose a general

  11. Decision modelling tools for utilities in the deregulated energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makkonen, S. [Process Vision Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    2005-07-01

    This thesis examines the impact of the deregulation of the energy market on decision making and optimisation in utilities and demonstrates how decision support applications can solve specific encountered tasks in this context. The themes of the thesis are presented in different frameworks in order to clarify the complex decision making and optimisation environment where new sources of uncertainties arise due to the convergence of energy markets, globalisation of energy business and increasing competition. This thesis reflects the changes in the decision making and planning environment of European energy companies during the period from 1995 to 2004. It also follows the development of computational performance and evolution of energy information systems during the same period. Specifically, this thesis consists of studies at several levels of the decision making hierarchy ranging from top-level strategic decision problems to specific optimisation algorithms. On the other hand, the studies also follow the progress of the liberalised energy market from the monopolistic era to the fully competitive market with new trading instruments and issues like emissions trading. This thesis suggests that there is an increasing need for optimisation and multiple criteria decision making methods, and that new approaches based on the use of operations research are welcome as the deregulation proceeds and uncertainties increase. Technically, the optimisation applications presented are based on Lagrangian relaxation techniques and the dedicated Power Simplex algorithm supplemented with stochastic scenario analysis for decision support, a heuristic method to allocate common benefits and potential losses of coalitions of power companies, and an advanced Branch- and-Bound algorithm to solve efficiently nonconvex optimisation problems. The optimisation problems are part of the operational and tactical decision making process that has become very complex in the recent years. Similarly

  12. Decision modelling tools for utilities in the deregulated energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makkonen, S.

    2005-01-01

    This thesis examines the impact of the deregulation of the energy market on decision making and optimisation in utilities and demonstrates how decision support applications can solve specific encountered tasks in this context. The themes of the thesis are presented in different frameworks in order to clarify the complex decision making and optimisation environment where new sources of uncertainties arise due to the convergence of energy markets, globalisation of energy business and increasing competition. This thesis reflects the changes in the decision making and planning environment of European energy companies during the period from 1995 to 2004. It also follows the development of computational performance and evolution of energy information systems during the same period. Specifically, this thesis consists of studies at several levels of the decision making hierarchy ranging from top-level strategic decision problems to specific optimisation algorithms. On the other hand, the studies also follow the progress of the liberalised energy market from the monopolistic era to the fully competitive market with new trading instruments and issues like emissions trading. This thesis suggests that there is an increasing need for optimisation and multiple criteria decision making methods, and that new approaches based on the use of operations research are welcome as the deregulation proceeds and uncertainties increase. Technically, the optimisation applications presented are based on Lagrangian relaxation techniques and the dedicated Power Simplex algorithm supplemented with stochastic scenario analysis for decision support, a heuristic method to allocate common benefits and potential losses of coalitions of power companies, and an advanced Branch- and-Bound algorithm to solve efficiently nonconvex optimisation problems. The optimisation problems are part of the operational and tactical decision making process that has become very complex in the recent years. Similarly

  13. The professional medical ethics model of decision making under conditions of clinical uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, Laurence B

    2013-02-01

    The professional medical ethics model of decision making may be applied to decisions clinicians and patients make under the conditions of clinical uncertainty that exist when evidence is low or very low. This model uses the ethical concepts of medicine as a profession, the professional virtues of integrity and candor and the patient's virtue of prudence, the moral management of medical uncertainty, and trial of intervention. These features combine to justifiably constrain clinicians' and patients' autonomy with the goal of preventing nondeliberative decisions of patients and clinicians. To prevent biased recommendations by the clinician that promote such nondeliberative decisions, medically reasonable alternatives supported by low or very low evidence should be offered but not recommended. The professional medical ethics model of decision making aims to improve the quality of decisions by reducing the unacceptable variation that can result from nondeliberative decision making by patients and clinicians when evidence is low or very low.

  14. Allocatable Fixed Inputs and Two-Stage Aggregation Models of Multioutput Production Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Barry T. Coyle

    1993-01-01

    Allocation decisions for a fixed input such as land are incorporated into a two-stage aggregation model of multioutput production decisions. The resulting two-stage model is more realistic and is as tractable for empirical research as the standard model.

  15. Case Study on High Dimensional Data Analysis Using Decision Tree Model

    OpenAIRE

    Smitha.T; V.Sundaram

    2012-01-01

    The major aspire of this paper is to build a model to predict the chances of occurrences of disease in an area. This paper mainly concentrating the data mining technique-Decision tree model to identify the significant parameters for prediction process. The decision tree model created with the help of ID3 algorithm.

  16. Control of a Braitenberg Lizard in a Phonotaxis Task with Decision Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaikh, Danish; Hallam, John; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    a Braitenberg vehicle–like mobile robot without any decision model in a phonotaxis task. In this paper we extend the Braitenberg vehicle model to include two separate decision models in the control and recreate the phonotaxis task. We compare the performance of the robot, in terms of successful phonotaxis...

  17. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross

  18. A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Ya

    2015-01-01

    Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

  19. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Coles, Garill A.; Shoemaker, Steven V.

    2012-06-12

    Modernization of nuclear power operations control systems, in particular the move to digital control systems, creates an opportunity to modernize existing legacy infrastructure and extend plant life. We describe here decision support tools that allow the assessment of different facets of risk and support the optimization of available resources to reduce risk as plants are upgraded and maintained. This methodology could become an integrated part of the design review process and a part of the operations management systems. The methodology can be applied to the design of new reactors such as small nuclear reactors (SMR), and be helpful in assessing the risks of different configurations of the reactors. Our tool provides a low cost evaluation of alternative configurations and provides an expanded safety analysis by considering scenarios while early in the implementation cycle where cost impacts can be minimized. The effects of failures can be modeled and thoroughly vetted to understand their potential impact on risk. The process and tools presented here allow for an integrated assessment of risk by supporting traditional defense in depth approaches while taking into consideration the insertion of new digital instrument and control systems.

  20. ICADS: A cooperative decision making model with CLIPS experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Jens; Myers, Leonard

    1991-01-01

    A cooperative decision making model is described which is comprised of six concurrently executing domain experts coordinated by a blackboard control expert. The focus application field is architectural design, and the domain experts represent consultants in the area of daylighting, noise control, structural support, cost estimating, space planning, and climate responsiveness. Both the domain experts and the blackboard were implemented as production systems, using an enhanced version of the basic CLIPS package. Acting in unison as an Expert Design Advisor, the domain and control experts react to the evolving design solution progressively developed by the user in a 2-D CAD drawing environment. A Geometry Interpreter maps each drawing action taken by the user to real world objects, such as spaces, walls, windows, and doors. These objects, endowed with geometric and nongeometric attributes, are stored as frames in a semantic network. Object descriptions are derived partly from the geometry of the drawing environment and partly from knowledge bases containing prototypical, generalized information about the building type and site conditions under consideration.

  1. Solution chemistry of Mo(III) and Mo(IV): Thermodynamic foundation for modeling localized corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Peiming; Wilson, Leslie L.; Wesolowski, David J.; Rosenqvist, Joergen; Anderko, Andrzej

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the behavior of molybdenum dissolution products in systems that approximate localized corrosion environments, solubility of Mo(III) in equilibrium with solid MoO 2 has been determined at 80 deg. C as a function of solution acidity, chloride concentration and partial pressure of hydrogen. The measurements indicate a strong increase in solubility with acidity and chloride concentration and a weak effect of hydrogen partial pressure. The obtained results have been combined with literature data for systems containing Mo(III), Mo(IV), and Mo(VI) in solutions to develop a comprehensive thermodynamic model of aqueous molybdenum chemistry. The model is based on a previously developed framework for simulating the properties of electrolyte systems ranging from infinite dilution to solid saturation or fused salt limit. To reproduce the measurements, the model assumes the presence of a chloride complex of Mo(III) (i.e., MoCl 2+ ) and hydrolyzed species (MoOH 2+ , Mo(OH) 2 + , and Mo(OH) 3 0 ) in addition to the Mo 3+ ion. The model generally reproduces the experimental data within experimental scattering and provides a tool for predicting the phase behavior and speciation in complex, concentrated aqueous solutions. Thus, it provides a foundation for simulating the behavior of molybdenum species in localized corrosion environments.

  2. Bianchi Type-III Cosmological Models in Lyra's Geometry in the Presence of Massive Scalar Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, J. K.; Rani, Sarita

    2015-02-01

    Spatially homogeneous and totally anisotropic Bianchi type-III cosmological models in the theory based on Lyra's geometry in Gauss normal gauge in the presence of an attractive massive scalar field have been investigated. To get the deterministic model in terms of cosmic time, it has been assumed that the expansion scalar Θ in the models is proportional to the shear scalar σ. Two models, one with variable deceleration parameter and another with constant deceleration parameter have been discussed. To discuss the model with constant deceleration parameter, we have used the special law of variation for Hubble's parameter proposed by (Berman Nuovo Cimento 74B, 184, 1983). The physical and geometrical properties of the models have been discussed. The energy conditions of the models are verified. It has been concluded that one of the universe models approaches to isotropy through the evolution of the universe, in some special cases.

  3. Molecular model of a type III secretion system needle: Implications for host-cell sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane, Janet E; Roversi, Pietro; Cordes, Frank S; Johnson, Steven; Kenjale, Roma; Daniell, Sarah; Booy, Frank; Picking, William D; Picking, Wendy L; Blocker, Ariel J; Lea, Susan M

    2006-08-15

    Type III secretion systems are essential virulence determinants for many Gram-negative bacterial pathogens. The type III secretion system consists of cytoplasmic, transmembrane, and extracellular domains. The extracellular domain is a hollow needle protruding above the bacterial surface and is held within a basal body that traverses both bacterial membranes. Effector proteins are translocated, via this external needle, directly into host cells, where they subvert normal cell functions to aid infection. Physical contact with host cells initiates secretion and leads to formation of a pore, thought to be contiguous with the needle channel, in the host-cell membrane. Here, we report the crystal structure of the Shigella flexneri needle subunit MxiH and a complete model for the needle assembly built into our three-dimensional EM reconstruction. The model, combined with mutagenesis data, reveals that signaling of host-cell contact is relayed through the needle via intersubunit contacts and suggests a mode of binding for a tip complex.

  4. River water quality model no. 1 (RWQM1): III. Biochemical submodel selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanrolleghem, P.; Borchardt, D.; Henze, Mogens

    2001-01-01

    The new River Water Quality Model no.1 introduced in the two accompanying papers by Shanahan et al. and Reichert et al. is comprehensive. Shanahan et al. introduced a six-step decision procedure to select the necessary model features for a certain application. This paper specifically addresses one...... of these steps, i.e. the selection of submodels of the comprehensive biochemical conversion model introduced in Reichert et al. Specific conditions for inclusion of one or the other conversion process or model component are introduced, as are some general rules that can support the selection. Examples...... of simplified models are presented....

  5. High-field EPR investigations of Mn(III)Mn(IV) and Mn(II)Mn(III) states of dimanganese catalase and related model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutloff, Christian; Schäfer, Kai-Oliver; Sinnecker, Sebastian; Barynin, Vladimir; Bittl, Robert; Wieghardt, Karl; Lendzian, Friedhelm; Lubitz, Wolfgang

    2005-11-01

    Multi-frequency EPR experiments at 9, 34 and 94 GHz are reported on the antiferromagnetically coupled mixed valence Mn(II)Mn(III) complex of manganese catalase and on several dinuclear manganese model systems. They are compared with similar experiments obtained earlier for the Mn(III)Mn(IV) states. It is demonstrated how accurate information on the G- and 55Mn hyperfine tensors can be derived from this approach. Furthermore, the effect of oxidation state, planarity of the manganese-oxygen core and the type of ligands bridging the manganese ions on the magnetic resonance parameters and the related electronic structure is investigated. 'Broken-symmetry' density functional calculations on two Mn(III)Mn(IV) complexes, including the superoxidized state of the catalase, are presented. The agreement between calculated and experimental EPR parameters and complex geometries is remarkably good. Implications of these results for the structure and function of the dimanganese catalase are discussed. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  6. Decision model for evaluating reactor disposition of excess plutonium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T.

    1995-02-01

    The US Department of Energy is currently considering a range of technologies for disposition of excess weapon plutonium. Use of plutonium fuel in fission reactors to generate spent fuel is one class of technology options. This report describes the inputs and results of decision analyses conducted to evaluate four evolutionary/advanced and three existing fission reactor designs for plutonium disposition. The evaluation incorporates multiple objectives or decision criteria, and accounts for uncertainty. The purpose of the study is to identify important and discriminating decision criteria, and to identify combinations of value judgments and assumptions that tend to favor one reactor design over another.

  7. Decision model for evaluating reactor disposition of excess plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmunds, T.

    1995-02-01

    The US Department of Energy is currently considering a range of technologies for disposition of excess weapon plutonium. Use of plutonium fuel in fission reactors to generate spent fuel is one class of technology options. This report describes the inputs and results of decision analyses conducted to evaluate four evolutionary/advanced and three existing fission reactor designs for plutonium disposition. The evaluation incorporates multiple objectives or decision criteria, and accounts for uncertainty. The purpose of the study is to identify important and discriminating decision criteria, and to identify combinations of value judgments and assumptions that tend to favor one reactor design over another

  8. String cloud cosmologies for Bianchi type-III models with electromagnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, S. K.; Sahu, S. K.; Routray, T. R.

    2008-06-01

    The Saez-Ballester field equations for spatially homogeneous and anisotropic Bianchi type-III cosmological models have been solved for pure geometric cosmic string cloud pervading the universe either in the absence or in presence of electromagnetic field. It has been established here that the model does not survive for geometric cosmic string cloud pervading the universe when there is no electromagnetic field. But in presence of electromagnetic field the model can have plausible solutions fostering the idea that strings forming the surface of the world sheet have to co-exist with electromagnetic field.

  9. The Integrated Decision Model in Emergency Dispatch Management and It's Implications for Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.L. William Wong

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on a review of a number of well-known naturalistic decision making. NDM, models (Zsambok & Klein, 1997. Key features of these models were identified and were found to represent different views of the same naturalistic decision making process. The key features of these different views were then integrated into a single model called the Integrated Decision Model. To validate the model, a study of emergency dispatch co-ordinators was conducted to determine the 'goodness of fit' of the model in a naturalistic domain. A Critical Decision Method-based study (Klein et al., 1989 was conducted and found enough evidence in the emergency dispatch management process to support the proposal of the Integrated Decision Model.

  10. Two Dimensional Modeling of III-V Heterojunction Gate All Around Tunnel Field Effect Transistor

    OpenAIRE

    Manjula Vijh; R.S. Gupta; Sujata Pandey

    2017-01-01

    Tunnel Field Effect Transistor is one of the extensively researched semiconductor devices, which has captured attention over the conventional Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor. This device, due to its varied advantages, is considered in applications where devices are scaled down to deep sub-micron level. Like MOSFETs, many geometries of TFETs have been studied and analyzed in the past few years. This work, presents a two dimensional analytical model for a III-V Heterojunction ...

  11. Bianchi VI{sub 0} and III models: self-similar approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belinchon, Jose Antonio, E-mail: abelcal@ciccp.e [Departamento de Fisica, ETS Arquitectura, UPM, Av. Juan de Herrera 4, Madrid 28040 (Spain)

    2009-09-07

    We study several cosmological models with Bianchi VI{sub 0} and III symmetries under the self-similar approach. We find new solutions for the 'classical' perfect fluid model as well as for the vacuum model although they are really restrictive for the equation of state. We also study a perfect fluid model with time-varying constants, G and LAMBDA. As in other studied models we find that the behaviour of G and LAMBDA are related. If G behaves as a growing time function then LAMBDA is a positive decreasing time function but if G is decreasing then LAMBDA{sub 0} is negative. We end by studying a massive cosmic string model, putting special emphasis in calculating the numerical values of the equations of state. We show that there is no SS solution for a string model with time-varying constants.

  12. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  13. Benefit cost models to support pavement management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    A critical role of pavement management is to provide decision makers with estimates of the required budget level to achieve specific steady-state network conditions, and to recommend the best allocation of available budget among competing needs for m...

  14. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  15. Formal Models of Dilemmas in Social Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    34group rationality" ~ have become of increasing interest to both social scientists and laymen. Overpopulation and pollution are two dramatic...Research Institute Paper presented at Human Judgment and Decision Processes Symposium Northern Illinois University October 16, 1974 To appear in... Human Judgment and Decision Processes; Formal and Mathematical Approaches [Kaplan s Schwartz, eds.l /M uMMmMMM —— ^ - ----^ — im I

  16. BWR Mark III containment analyses using a GOTHIC 8.0 3D model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, Gonzalo; Serrano, César; Lopez-Alonso, Emma; Molina, M del Carmen; Calvo, Daniel; García, Javier; Queral, César; Zuriaga, J. Vicente; González, Montserrat

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The development of a 3D GOTHIC code model of BWR Mark-III containment is described. • Suppression pool modelling based on the POOLEX STB-20 and STB-16 experimental tests. • LOCA and SBO transient simulated to verify the behaviour of the 3D GOTHIC model. • Comparison between the 3D GOTHIC model and MAAP4.07 model is conducted. • Accurate reproduction of pre severe accident conditions with the 3D GOTHIC model. - Abstract: The purpose of this study is to establish a detailed three-dimensional model of Cofrentes NPP BWR/6 Mark III containment building using the containment code GOTHIC 8.0. This paper presents the model construction, the phenomenology tests conducted and the selected transient for the model evaluation. In order to study the proper settings for the model in the suppression pool, two experiments conducted with the experimental installation POOLEX have been simulated, allowing to obtain a proper behaviour of the model under different suppression pool phenomenology. In the transient analyses, a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) and a Station Blackout (SBO) transient have been performed. The main results of the simulations of those transients were qualitative compared with the results obtained from simulations with MAAP 4.07 Cofrentes NPP model, used by the plant for simulating severe accidents. From this comparison, a verification of the model in terms of pressurization, asymmetric discharges and high pressure release were obtained. The completeness of this model has proved to adequately simulate the thermal hydraulic phenomena which occur in the containment during accidental sequences

  17. The Application of Time-Delay Dependent H∞ Control Model in Manufacturing Decision Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Guo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a time-delay dependent H∞ control model to analyze the effect of manufacturing decisions on the process of transmission from resources to capability. We establish a theoretical framework of manufacturing management process based on three terms: resource, manufacturing decision, and capability. Then we build a time-delay H∞ robust control model to analyze the robustness of manufacturing management. With the state feedback controller between manufacturing resources and decision, we find that there is an optimal decision to adjust the process of transmission from resources to capability under uncertain environment. Finally, we provide an example to prove the robustness of this model.

  18. Decision Support Model for Introduction of Gamification Solution Using AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangkyun Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Gamification means the use of various elements of game design in nongame contexts including workplace collaboration, marketing, education, military, and medical services. Gamification is effective for both improving workplace productivity and motivating employees. However, introduction of gamification is not easy because the planning and implementation processes of gamification are very complicated and it needs interdisciplinary knowledge such as information systems, organization behavior, and human psychology. Providing a systematic decision making method for gamification process is the purpose of this paper. This paper suggests the decision criteria for selection of gamification platform to support a systematic decision making process for managements. The criteria are derived from previous works on gamification, introduction of information systems, and analytic hierarchy process. The weights of decision criteria are calculated through a survey by the professionals on game, information systems, and business administration. The analytic hierarchy process is used to derive the weights. The decision criteria and weights provided in this paper could support the managements to make a systematic decision for selection of gamification platform.

  19. Decision support model for introduction of gamification solution using AHP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sangkyun

    2014-01-01

    Gamification means the use of various elements of game design in nongame contexts including workplace collaboration, marketing, education, military, and medical services. Gamification is effective for both improving workplace productivity and motivating employees. However, introduction of gamification is not easy because the planning and implementation processes of gamification are very complicated and it needs interdisciplinary knowledge such as information systems, organization behavior, and human psychology. Providing a systematic decision making method for gamification process is the purpose of this paper. This paper suggests the decision criteria for selection of gamification platform to support a systematic decision making process for managements. The criteria are derived from previous works on gamification, introduction of information systems, and analytic hierarchy process. The weights of decision criteria are calculated through a survey by the professionals on game, information systems, and business administration. The analytic hierarchy process is used to derive the weights. The decision criteria and weights provided in this paper could support the managements to make a systematic decision for selection of gamification platform.

  20. New Graphical Model for Computing Optimistic Decisions in Possibility Theory Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Ismahane Zeddigha; Salem Benferhat; Faiza Khellaf

    2016-01-01

    This paper first proposes a new graphical model for decision making under uncertainty based on min-based possibilistic networks. A decision problem under uncertainty is described by means of two distinct min-based possibilistic networks: the first one expresses agent's knowledge while the second one encodes agent's preferences representing a qualitative utility. We then propose an efficient algorithm for computing optimistic optimal decisions using our new model for representing possibilistic...

  1. Decisions, Decisions!

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, F. Lee

    1975-01-01

    A self-instructional program on decision making was used in conjunction with workshops to introduce the staff of an instructional materials company to the decision tree process as they used it to study their own film production problem. (Author/MS)

  2. Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2014-01-01

    WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.

  3. The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

    2014-10-15

    Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

  4. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klabunde, A.; Willekens, F.J.

    2016-01-01

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical

  5. Modelling Joint Decision Making Processes Involving Emotion-Related Valuing and Mutual Empathic Understanding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a social agent model for joint decision making is presented addressing the role of mutually acknowledged empathic understanding in the decision making. The model is based on principles from recent neurological theories on mirror neurons, internal simulation, and emotion-related

  6. A Review of Contemporary Ethical Decision-Making Models for Mental Health Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Perry C.

    2015-01-01

    Mental health professionals are faced with increasingly complex ethical decisions that are impacted by culture, personal and professional values, and the contexts in which they and their clients inhabit. This article presents the reasons for developing and implementing multiple ethical decision making models and reviews four models that address…

  7. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear

  8. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  9. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Webb, Colleen T.; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P.; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by

  10. Time-varying boundaries for diffusion models of decision making and response time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, S.; Lee, M.D.; Vandekerckhove, J.; Maris, G.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion models are widely-used and successful accounts of the time course of two-choice decision making. Most diffusion models assume constant boundaries, which are the threshold levels of evidence that must be sampled from a stimulus to reach a decision. We summarize theoretical results from

  11. The UNITE-DSS Modelling System: Risk Simulation and Decision Conferencing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    This presentation introduces the brand new approach of integrating risk simulation and decision conferencing within transport project appraisal (UNITE-DSS model). The modelling approach is divided into various modules respectively as point estimates (cost-benefit analysis), stochastic interval...... results (quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation) and finally framed within stakeholder involvement (decision conferencing) as depicted in the figure....

  12. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...... informed decision support towards decision-makers and stakeholders in terms of accumulated descending graphs. The decision support method developed in this paper aims to provide assistance in the analysis and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding any transport...

  13. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  14. Negative emotionality across diagnostic models: RDoC, DSM-5 Section III, and FFM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gore, Whitney L; Widiger, Thomas A

    2018-03-01

    The research domain criteria (RDoC) were established in an effort to explore underlying dimensions that cut across many existing disorders and to provide an alternative to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5). One purpose of the present study was to suggest a potential alignment of RDoC negative valence with 2 other dimensional models of negative emotionality: five-factor model (FFM) neuroticism and the DSM-5 Section III negative affectivity. A second purpose of the study, though, was to compare their coverage of negative emotionality, more specifically with respect to affective instability. Participants were adult community residents (N = 90) currently in mental health treatment. Participants received self-report measures of RDoC negative valence, FFM neuroticism, and DSM-5 Section III negative affectivity, along with measures of affective instability, borderline personality disorder, and impairment. Findings suggested that RDoC negative valence is commensurate with FFM neuroticism and DSM-5 Section III negative affectivity, and it would be beneficial if it was expanded to include affective instability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Dynamic modeling in ovarian cancer: an original approach linking early changes in modeled longitudinal CA-125 kinetics and survival to help decisions in early drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilbaux, Mélanie; Hénin, Emilie; Oza, Amit; Colomban, Olivier; Pujade-Lauraine, Eric; Freyer, Gilles; Tod, Michel; You, Benoit

    2014-06-01

    Early prediction of the expected benefit of treatment in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients may help in drug development decisions. The actual value of 50% CA-125 decrease is being reconsidered. The main objective of the present study was to quantify the links between longitudinal assessments of CA-125 kinetics and progression-free survival (PFS) in treated recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients. The CALYPSO randomized phase III trial database comparing two platinum-based regimens in ROC patients was randomly split into a "learning dataset" and a "validation dataset". A parametric survival model was developed to associate longitudinal modeled CA-125 changes (ΔCA125), predictive factors, and PFS. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated with simulations. The PFS of 534 ROC patients were properly characterized by a parametric mathematical model. The modeled ΔCA125 from baseline to week 6 was a better predictor of PFS than the modeled fractional change in tumor size. Simulations confirmed the model's predictive performance. We present the first parametric survival model quantifying the relationship between PFS and longitudinal CA-125 kinetics in treated ROC patients. The model enabled calculation of the increase in ΔCA125 required to observe a predetermined benefit in PFS to compare therapeutic strategies in populations. Therefore, ΔCA125 may be a predictive marker of the expected gain in PFS and an early predictive tool in drug development decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Accrual based accounting implementation: An approach for modelling major decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratno Agriyanto

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades the main issues of implementation of accrual based accounting government institutions in Indonesia. Implementation of accrual based accounting in government institutions amid debate about the usefulness of accounting information for decision-making. Empirical study shows that the accrual based of accounting information on a government institution is not used for decision making. The research objective was to determine the impact of the implementation of the accrual based accounting to the accrual basis of accounting information use for decision-making basis. We used the survey questionnaires. The data were processed by SEM using statistical software WarpPLS. The results showed that the implementation of the accrual based accounting in City Government Semarang has significantly positively associated with decision-making. Another important finding is the City Government officials of Semarang have personality, low tolerance of ambiguity is a negative effect on the relationship between the implementation of the accrual based accounting for decision making

  17. Modelling Financial-Accounting Decisions by Means of OLAP Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Elena CODREAN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available At present, one can say that a company’s good running largely depends on the information quantity and quality it relies on when making decisions. The information needed to underlie decisions and be obtained due to the existence of a high-performing information system which makes it possible for the data to be shown quickly, synthetically and truly, also providing the opportunity for complex analyses and predictions. In such circumstances, computerized accounting systems, too, have grown their complexity by means of data analyzing information solutions such as OLAP and Data Mining which help perform a multidimensional analysis of financial-accounting data, potential frauds can be detected and data hidden information can be revealed, trends for certain indicators can be set up, therefore ensuring useful information to a company’s decision making.

  18. A note on tilted Bianchi type VIh models: the type III bifurcation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, A. A.; Hervik, S.

    2008-10-01

    In this note we complete the analysis of Hervik, van den Hoogen, Lim and Coley (2007 Class. Quantum Grav. 24 3859) of the late-time behaviour of tilted perfect fluid Bianchi type III models. We consider models with dust, and perfect fluids stiffer than dust, and eludicate the late-time behaviour by studying the centre manifold which dominates the behaviour of the model at late times. In the dust case, this centre manifold is three-dimensional and can be considered a double bifurcation as the two parameters (h and γ) of the type VIh model are varied. We therefore complete the analysis of the late-time behaviour of tilted ever-expanding Bianchi models of types I VIII.

  19. A multicriteria decision making model for assessment and selection of an ERP in a logistics context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Teresa; Ferreira, Fernanda A.

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this work is to apply a methodology of decision support based on a multicriteria decision analyses (MCDA) model that allows the assessment and selection of an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in a Portuguese logistics company by Group Decision Maker (GDM). A Decision Support system (DSS) that implements a MCDA - Multicriteria Methodology for the Assessment and Selection of Information Systems / Information Technologies (MMASSI / IT) is used based on its features and facility to change and adapt the model to a given scope. Using this DSS it was obtained the information system that best suited to the decisional context, being this result evaluated through a sensitivity and robustness analysis.

  20. Application of Imprecise Decision Modeling for Regional Development Policies in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novita Erlinda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Regional Development encompasses many aspect of economic, social, and environmental attributes. In the context of developing country, the decision to fulfill these attributes are often hindered by lack of clear development scenarios and constraints. This study is an attempt to capture the complexity of decision makers for regional development scenarios using imprecise decision modeling (IDM by incorporating imprecise information and uncertainties. A series of social, economic and environmental criteria based on agreement from multi stakeholders dialogues were developed along with four policy development scenarios. Results from such a modeling provides variety of decision alternatives based on probabilities and risk assessment associated with achieving policy objectives.

  1. A Dynamic Model for Decision Making During Memory Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-26

    a  knowledge  task  (pseudo-­‐ lexical  decision),  a  perceptual  task  (perceptual  identification),  and  an  episodic... lexical decision), a perceptual task (perceptual identification), and an episodic recognition task (recognition memory for occurrence of a test item...Topics in Cognitive Science, 4(1), 135-150. Cox, G. E., Kachergis, G., and Shiffrin, R. M. (2012). Gaussian process regression for trajectory analysis . In

  2. Decision making under uncertainty in a spiking neural network model of the basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Héricé, Charlotte; Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie; Boraud, Thomas; Guthrie, Martin; Garenne, André

    2016-12-01

    The mechanisms of decision-making and action selection are generally thought to be under the control of parallel cortico-subcortical loops connecting back to distinct areas of cortex through the basal ganglia and processing motor, cognitive and limbic modalities of decision-making. We have used these properties to develop and extend a connectionist model at a spiking neuron level based on a previous rate model approach. This model is demonstrated on decision-making tasks that have been studied in primates and the electrophysiology interpreted to show that the decision is made in two steps. To model this, we have used two parallel loops, each of which performs decision-making based on interactions between positive and negative feedback pathways. This model is able to perform two-level decision-making as in primates. We show here that, before learning, synaptic noise is sufficient to drive the decision-making process and that, after learning, the decision is based on the choice that has proven most likely to be rewarded. The model is then submitted to lesion tests, reversal learning and extinction protocols. We show that, under these conditions, it behaves in a consistent manner and provides predictions in accordance with observed experimental data.

  3. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece); Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence (Greece); Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece)

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

  4. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  5. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Morell, M.; Todorovik, O.; Dimitrov, D.; Selenica, A.; Spirkovski, Z.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the

  6. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; de Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  7. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  8. Decision support for sustainable forestry: enhancing the basic rational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H.R. Ekbia; K.M. Reynolds

    2007-01-01

    Decision-support systems (DSS) have been extensively used in the management of natural resources for nearly two decades. However, practical difficulties with the application of DSS in real-world situations have become increasingly apparent. Complexities of decisionmaking, encountered in the context of ecosystem management, are equally present in sustainable forestry....

  9. Aiding human reliance decision making using computational models of trust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maanen, P.P. van; Klos, T.; Dongen, C.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This paper involves a human-agent system in which there is an operator charged with a pattern recognition task, using an automated decision aid. The objective is to make this human-agent system operate as effectively as possible. Effectiveness is gained by an increase of appropriate reliance on the

  10. A model of high-affinity antibody binding to type III group B Streptococcus capsular polysaccharide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessels, M R; Muñoz, A; Kasper, D L

    1987-12-01

    We recently reported that the single repeating-unit pentasaccharide of type III group B Streptococcus (GBS) capsular polysaccharide is only weakly reactive with type III GBS antiserum. To further elucidate the relationship between antigen-chain length and antigenicity, tritiated oligosaccharides derived from type III capsular polysaccharide were used to generate detailed saturation binding curves with a fixed concentration of rabbit antiserum in a radioactive antigen-binding assay. A graded increase in affinity of antigen-antibody binding was seen as oligosaccharide size increased from 2.6 repeating units to 92 repeating units. These differences in affinity of antibody binding to oligosaccharides of different molecular size were confirmed by immunoprecipitation and competitive ELISA, two independent assays of antigen-antibody binding. Analysis of the saturation binding experiment indicated a difference of 300-fold in antibody-binding affinity for the largest versus the smallest tested oligosaccharides. Unexpectedly, the saturation binding values approached by the individual curves were inversely related to oligosaccharide chain length on a molar basis but equivalent on a weight basis. This observation is compatible with a model in which binding of an immunoglobulin molecule to an antigenic site on the polysaccharide facilitates subsequent binding of antibody to that antigen.

  11. The Role of Decision Models in Health Care Policy: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John-Baptiste, Ava; Schapira, Marilyn M; Cravens, Catherine; Chambers, James D; Neumann, Peter J; Siegel, Joanna; Lawrence, William

    2016-07-01

    In 2009, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) underwent a National Coverage Determination on computed tomography colonography (CTC) to screen for colorectal cancer. The Cancer Intervention & Surveillance Network developed decision models to inform this decision. The purpose of our study was to investigate the role of models in this decision. We performed a descriptive case study. We conducted semistructured telephone interviews with members of the CMS coverage and analysis group (CAG) and Medicare Coverage and Analysis Advisory Committee (MEDCAC) panelists. Informed by previously published literature, we developed a coding scheme to analyze interview transcripts, MEDCAC meeting transcripts, and the final CMS decision memo. Four members of the CAG and 8 MEDCAC panelists were interviewed. The total number of codes across all study documents was 772. We found evidence that decision makers believed in the adequacy of models to inform decision making. In interview transcripts, the code Models Are Adequate to Inform was more frequent than the code Models Are Inadequate to Inform (47 times v. 5). Discussion of model conceptualization dominated the MEDCAC meeting (Model Conceptualization assigned 113 times) and was frequently discussed during interviews (Model Conceptualization assigned 84 times). We also found evidence that the models helped to focus the policy discussion. Across study documents, the codes Focus on Cost, Focus on Clinical-Health Impact, and Focus on Inadequacy of Evidence Base were assigned 99, 98, and 97 times, respectively. Decision makers involved in the CTC decision believed in the adequacy of models to inform coverage decisions. The model played a role in focusing the CTC coverage policy discussion. © The Authors 2016.

  12. Multi Criteria Decision Support Model for the Turkish Air Force Personnel Course/Education Planning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    alternative among the many alternatives. The acronyms, MADM (Multiple Attribute Decision Making), MODS (Multi Objective Decision Support), and MCDM ...become more complex, thereupon every area of life has started to need decision support more than in the past. ” MCDM research in the 1970s focused on the...programming problems During the 1980s, emphasis shifted toward the implementation of MCDM models on computers with the aid of de- cision support

  13. Spectroscopic investigations on the complexation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) with organic model ligands and their binding mode in human urine (in vitro); Spektroskopische Untersuchungen zur Komplexbildung von Cm(III) und Eu(III) mit organischen Modellliganden sowie ihrer chemischen Bindungsform in menschlichem Urin (in vitro)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heller, Anne

    2011-10-26

    In case of incorporation, trivalent actinides (An(III)) and lanthanides (Ln(III)) pose a serious health risk to humans. An(III) are artificial, highly radioactive elements which are mainly produced during the nuclear fuel cycle in nuclear power plants. Via hazardous accidents or nonprofessional storage of radioactive waste, they can be released in the environment and enter the human food chain. In contrast, Ln(III) are nonradioactive, naturally occurring elements with multiple applications in technique and medicine. Consequently it is possible that humans get in contact and incorporate both, An(III) and Ln(III). Therefore, it is of particular importance to elucidate the behaviour of these elements in the human body. While macroscopic processes such as distribution, accumulation and excretion are studied quite well, knowledge about the chemical binding form (speciation) of An(III) and Ln(III) in various body fluids is still sparse. In the present work, for the first time, the speciation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) in natural human urine (in vitro) has been investigated spectroscopically and the formed complex identified. For this purpose, also basic investigations on the complex formation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) in synthetic model urine as well as with the urinary relevant, organic model ligands urea, alanine, phenylalanine, threonine and citrate have been performed and the previously unknown complex stability constants determined. Finally, all experimental results were compared to literature data and predictions calculated by thermodynamic modelling. Since both, Cm(III) and Eu(III), exhibit unique luminescence properties, particularly the suitability of time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TRLFS) could be demonstrated as a method to investigate these metal ions in untreated, complex biofluids. The results of this work provide new scientific findings on the biochemical reactions of An(III) and Ln(III) in human body fluids on a molecular scale and

  14. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  15. A new fit-for-purpose model testing framework: Decision Crash Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James

    2016-04-01

    Decision-makers in water resources are often burdened with selecting appropriate multi-million dollar strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate or land use change. Unfortunately, the suitability of existing hydrologic simulation models to accurately inform decision-making is in doubt because the testing procedures used to evaluate model utility (i.e., model validation) are insufficient. For example, many authors have identified that a good standard framework for model testing called the Klemes Crash Tests (KCTs), which are the classic model validation procedures from Klemeš (1986) that Andréassian et al. (2009) rename as KCTs, have yet to become common practice in hydrology. Furthermore, Andréassian et al. (2009) claim that the progression of hydrological science requires widespread use of KCT and the development of new crash tests. Existing simulation (not forecasting) model testing procedures such as KCTs look backwards (checking for consistency between simulations and past observations) rather than forwards (explicitly assessing if the model is likely to support future decisions). We propose a fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing framework based upon the concept of fit-for-purpose model testing that we call Decision Crash Tests or DCTs. Key DCT elements are i) the model purpose (i.e., decision the model is meant to support) must be identified so that model outputs can be mapped to management decisions ii) the framework evaluates not just the selected hydrologic model but the entire suite of model-building decisions associated with model discretization, calibration etc. The framework is constructed to directly and quantitatively evaluate model suitability. The DCT framework is applied to a model building case study on the Grand River in Ontario, Canada. A hypothetical binary decision scenario is analysed (upgrade or not upgrade the existing flood control structure) under two different sets of model building

  16. VALIDATION OF THEORETICAL MODEL FOR DECISION MAKING ABOUT E-LEARNING IMPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Begičević

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the possibility to use mathematical models and statistical techniques in strategic planning and decision making about e-learning is presented. Strategic planning and decision making has been covered as consisting of four phases: (1 intelligence, (2 design, (3 choice and (4 implementation. Each of the phases will be described in this paper, but the accent will be put on the statistical evaluation of the results of the questionnaire which was based on the developed theoretical model for decision making about e-learning implementation in the higher education sector. In general, the main objectives of this paper are: (1 validation of the first theoretical model for decision making about e-learning implementation in the higher education sector, by means of factor analysis and (2 reduction of a large number of variables to a smaller number of factors, i.e. designing the improved theoretical model, for modelling purposes (developing AHP & ANP models.

  17. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  18. Developing a type-III wind turbine model for stability studies of the Hydro-Quebec network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langlois, Charles-Eric; Lefebvre, Daniel [Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie, Montreal, QC (Canada); Dube, Laurent [DEI Technology, Montreal, QC (Canada); Gagnon, Richard [Hydro-Quebec IREQ, Varennes, QC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a type-III (with DFIG) wind turbine model developed by Hydro-Quebec for stability studies. The model was built in EMTPWorks for use in PSS/E via an EMTP-PSS/E multi-model interface, also developed by Hydro-Quebec. The type-III model includes a physical representation of the asynchronous generator with rotor flux transients and two-mass shaft dynamics. The paper describes the turbine controls and discusses the design basis of the model. The model was validated with a full-transient detailed MATLAB/SimPowerSystems model developed by Hydro-Quebec. The latter was successfully compared with measurements from some disturbances on the Hydro-Quebec network. Test comparisons with a type-III generic model from the PSS/E library are presented. (orig.)

  19. Bianchi Type-III Dark Energy Model in a Saez-Ballester Scalar-Tensor Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, R. L.; Satyanarayana, B.; Reddy, D. R. K.

    2012-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate Bianchi type-III universe which has dynamical energy density. We introduce three different skewness parameters along spatial directions to quantify the deviation of pressure from isotropy. We also assume that the skewness parameters are time dependent. The Saez-Ballester (J. Phys. Lett. A 113:467, 1986) field equations have been solved by applying a variation law for generalized Hubble's parameter given by Bermann (Nuovo Cimento B 74:182, 1983). Some physical and kinematical properties of dark energy model are discussed.

  20. Traveling waves in a diffusive predator-prey model with holling type-III functional response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Wantong; Wu Shiliang

    2008-01-01

    We establish the existence of traveling wave solutions and small amplitude traveling wave train solutions for a reaction-diffusion system based on a predator-prey model with Holling type-III functional response. The analysis is in the three-dimensional phase space of the nonlinear ordinary differential equation system given by the diffusive predator-prey system in the traveling wave variable. The methods used to prove the results are the shooting argument, invariant manifold theory and the Hopf bifurcation theorem

  1. Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochau, U; Jahn, B; Qerimi, V; Burger, E A; Kurzthaler, C; Kluibenschaedl, M; Willenbacher, E; Gastl, G; Willenbacher, W; Siebert, U

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  3. Cognitive models of choice: comparing decision field theory to the proportional difference model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; González-Vallejo, Claudia

    2009-07-01

    People often face preferential decisions under risk. To further our understanding of the cognitive processes underlying these preferential choices, two prominent cognitive models, decision field theory (DFT; Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993) and the proportional difference model (PD; González-Vallejo, 2002), were rigorously tested against each other. In two consecutive experiments, the participants repeatedly had to choose between monetary gambles. The first experiment provided the reference to estimate the models' free parameters. From these estimations, new gamble pairs were generated for the second experiment such that the two models made maximally divergent predictions. In the first experiment, both models explained the data equally well. However, in the second generalization experiment, the participants' choices were much closer to the predictions of DFT. The results indicate that the stochastic process assumed by DFT, in which evidence in favor of or against each option accumulates over time, described people's choice behavior better than the trade-offs between proportional differences assumed by PD. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  4. Parental Vaccine Acceptance: A Logistic Regression Model Using Previsit Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sara; Riley-Behringer, Maureen; Rose, Jeanmarie C; Meropol, Sharon B; Lazebnik, Rina

    2017-07-01

    This study explores how parents' intentions regarding vaccination prior to their children's visit were associated with actual vaccine acceptance. A convenience sample of parents accompanying 6-week-old to 17-year-old children completed a written survey at 2 pediatric practices. Using hierarchical logistic regression, for hospital-based participants (n = 216), vaccine refusal history ( P < .01) and vaccine decision made before the visit ( P < .05) explained 87% of vaccine refusals. In community-based participants (n = 100), vaccine refusal history ( P < .01) explained 81% of refusals. Over 1 in 5 parents changed their minds about vaccination during the visit. Thirty parents who were previous vaccine refusers accepted current vaccines, and 37 who had intended not to vaccinate choose vaccination. Twenty-nine parents without a refusal history declined vaccines, and 32 who did not intend to refuse before the visit declined vaccination. Future research should identify key factors to nudge parent decision making in favor of vaccination.

  5. Final Report. Fumex-III. Improvement of Models Used for Fuel Behaviour Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulacsy, Katalin

    2013-01-01

    The FUMEX-III coordinated research programme organised by the IAEA was the first FUMEX exercise in which AEKI (Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute) took part with the partial support of Paks NPP. The aim of the participation was to test the code FUROM developed at AEKI against not only measurements but also other fuel behaviour simulation codes, to share and discuss modelling experience and issues, and to establish acquaintance with fuel modellers in other countries. Among the numerous cases proposed for the programme, AEKI chose to simulate normal operation up to high burn-up and ramp tests, with special interest in VVER rods and PWR rods with annular pellets. The US PWR 16x16, the SPC RE GINNA, the Kola3-MIR, the IFA-519.9 cases and the AREVA idealised rod were thus selected. The present Final Report gives a short description of the FUROM models relevant to the selected cases, presents the results for the 5 cases and summarises the conclusions of the FUMEX-III programme. The input parameters used for the simulations can be found in the Appendix at the end of the Report. Observations concerning the IFPE datasets are collected for each dataset in their respective Sections for possible use in the IFPE database. (author)

  6. PENGEMBANGAN MODEL UNTUK SIMULASI KESELAMATAN REAKTOR PWR 1000 MWe GENERASI III+ MENGGUNAKAN PROGRAM KOMPUTER RELAP5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Sofrany Ekariansyah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Reaktor daya PWR AP1000 yang didesain oleh Westinghouse adalah reaktor Generasi III+ pertama yang telah menerima persetujuan desain dari U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC. Saat ini utilitas China telah memulai pembangunan beberapa unit AP1000 di dua tapak terpilih untuk rencana operasi pada 2013-2015. AP1000 sebagai desain PWR berdasarkan teknologi teruji dari desain PWR lainnya yang dibuat oleh Westinghouse dengan penguatan pada sistem keselamatan pasif dengan demikian dapat dipertimbangkan untuk dibangun di Indonesia bila mengacu pada persyaratan pada PP 43/2006 mengenai Perijinan Reaktor Nuklir. Namun demikian, desain tersebut perlu diverifikasi oleh Technical Support Organization (TSO independen sebelum dapat dibangun di Indonesia. Verifikasi dapat dilakukan menggunakan paket program RELAP5 dalam bentuk analisis kecelakaan. Selama ini analisis kecelakaan PLTN dilakukan untuk tipe PWR 1000 MWe dari generasi II atau tipe konvensional. Mengingat saat ini referensi yang menggambarkan teknologi AP1000 yang menyertakan teknologi keselamatan pasif sudah tersedia maka dilakukan kegiatan pemodelan yang nantinya dapat digunakan untuk melakukan analisis kecelakaan. Metode pengembangan model mengacu pada pedoman IAEA yang terdiri dari pengumpulan data instalasi, pengembangan engineering data dan penyusunan input deck, verifikasi dan validasi data input. Model yang berhasil dikembangkan secara umum telah mewakili sistem AP1000 secara keseluruhan dan dianggap sebagai model dasar. Model tersebut telah diverifikasi dan divalidasi dengan data desain yang terdapat pada referensi dimana respon parameter termohidraulika menunjukkan perbedaan hasil ± 3% selain untuk parameter penurunan tekanan teras yang lebih rendah 13%. Sebagai model dasar, input deck yang diperoleh dapat dikembangkan lebih lanjut dengan mengintegrasikan pemodelan sistem keselamatan, sistem proteksi, dan sistem kendali yang spesifik AP1000 untuk keperluan simulasi keselamatan yang lebih

  7. Constitutional Model and Rationality in Judicial Decisions from Proportionality Technique

    OpenAIRE

    Feio, Thiago Alves

    2016-01-01

    In the current legal systems, the content of the Constitutions consists of values that serve to limit state action. The department in charge of the control of this system is, usually, the Judiciary. This choice leads to two major problems, the tension between democracy and constitutionalism and the subjectivity that control. One of the solutions to subjectivity is weighting of principles through the proportionality technique, which aims to give rational decisions. This technique doesn’t elimi...

  8. The Role of Mental Models in Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    wholesaler, and the factory to brews and supplies beer to distributor. The object of the game is to minimize inventory and avoid backorder while...dynamic decision-making situations. Fu and Gonzalez (2006) used a simplified supply chain system in a microworld platform called The Beer Game. In...this game, a single retailer supplies beer to the consumer, a single wholesaler supplies beer to the retailer, the distributor supplies beer to the

  9. Evaluating and modelling constructs for e-government decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Sharif, AM; Irani, Z; Weerakkody, V

    2010-01-01

    It is now becoming increasingly well understood that the investment and evaluation of electronic government projects is determinant on a number of organisational, policymaking and decision-making factors, which are determining the success or failure of such endeavours. Given the increasing interest in the manner and methods by which public sector projects are implemented as well as evaluated, this paper attempts to synergise contemporary e-government project management (PM) components and syn...

  10. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.

  11. Wavelet Network Model Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Forecasting Temperature Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Jian; Yang, Xiao-hua; Chen, Xiao-juan

    2015-01-01

    Due to nonlinear and multiscale characteristics of temperature time series, a new model called wavelet network model based on multiple criteria decision making (WNMCDM) has been proposed, which combines the advantage of wavelet analysis, multiple criteria decision making, and artificial neural network. One case for forecasting extreme monthly maximum temperature of Miyun Reservoir has been conducted to examine the performance of WNMCDM model. Compared with nearest neighbor bootstrapping regr...

  12. A Multilevel Model of Minority Opinion Expression and Team Decision-Making Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Guihyun; DeShon, Richard P.

    2010-01-01

    The consideration of minority opinions when making team decisions is an important factor that contributes to team effectiveness. A multilevel model of minority opinion influence in decision-making teams is developed to address the conditions that relate to adequate consideration of minority opinions. Using a sample of 57 teams working on a…

  13. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  14. Examination of a Group Counseling Model of Career Decision Making with College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, P. Clay; Mobley, A. Keith; Kemer, Gulsah; Giordano, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    The authors examined the effectiveness of a group career counseling model (Pyle, K. R., 2007) on college students' career decision-making abilities. They used a Solomon 4-group design and found that students who participated in the career counseling groups had significantly greater increases in career decision-making abilities than those who…

  15. A Need to Know: An Ethical Decision-Making Model for Research Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Sarah Hope; Holmes, Elizabeth K.

    2008-01-01

    When faced with a morally charged situation, individuals engage in an ethical decision-making process to resolve the ethical dilemma. This paper outlines a model that describes the steps in the ethical decision-making process and identifies situational factors, collectively termed moral intensity, which may influence this process. The use of a…

  16. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Huang

    Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  17. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2013-01-01

    A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1) computing beliefs (posterior distributions) over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2) selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping) is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  18. Principles of Classroom Management: A Professional Decision-Making Model, 7th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, James; Nolan, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This text takes a decision-making model approach to classroom management. It provides teachers with a very practical system to influence students to choose to behave productively and to strive for academic success. This widely used text presents an array of decision-making options that guide teachers in developing positive, pro-social classroom…

  19. A Socioecological Model of Rape Survivors' Decisions to Aid in Case Prosecution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, Mary C.; Christopher, F. Scott

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of our study was to identify factors underlying rape survivors' post-assault prosecution decisions by testing a decision model that included the complex relations between the multiple social ecological systems within which rape survivors are embedded. We coded 440 police rape cases for characteristics of the assault and characteristics…

  20. The catalytic ozonization of model lignin compounds in the presence of Fe(III) ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben'ko, E. M.; Mukovnya, A. V.; Lunin, V. V.

    2007-05-01

    The ozonization of several model lignin compounds (guaiacol, 2,6-dimethoxyphenol, phenol, and vanillin) was studied in acid media in the presence of iron(III) ions. It was found that Fe3+ did not influence the initial rate of the reactions between model phenols and ozone but accelerated the oxidation of intermediate ozonolysis products. The metal concentration dependences of the total ozone consumption and effective rate constants of catalytic reaction stages were determined. Data on reactions in the presence of oxalic acid as a competing chelate ligand showed that complex formation with Fe3+ was the principal factor that accelerated the ozonolysis of model phenols at the stage of the oxidation of carboxylic dibasic acids and C2 aldehydes formed as intermediate products.

  1. The Influence of Adult and Peer Role Models on Children' and Adolescents' Sharing Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Azzurra; Luan, Shenghua; Keller, Monika; Gummerum, Michaela

    2017-08-04

    This study explores how the age (adult vs. peer) and the suggestion (to be fair vs. unfair) of models affect the sharing decisions of 9- and 12-year-olds (N = 365) from Italy and Singapore. Results demonstrate a developmental shift in the influence of models on children's and adolescents' sharing decisions in both cultures: Children's decisions were more affected by an adult model's suggestion than by that of a peer model, whereas the opposite was true for adolescents. Regardless of the models' influence, participants considered equal sharing to be the fair choice and reported being happier when their sharing decisions were generous. Our results highlight the crucial importance of social and developmental factors for the promotion of fairness judgments and emotions. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  2. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  3. Development and Implementation of Efficiency-Improving Analysis Methods for the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Model Originating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liles, Kaitlin; Amundsen, Ruth; Davis, Warren; Scola, Salvatore; Tobin, Steven; McLeod, Shawn; Mannu, Sergio; Guglielmo, Corrado; Moeller, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle in 2015. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Several novel methods have been implemented to facilitate efficient payload-level thermal analysis, including the use of a design of experiments (DOE) methodology to determine the worst-case orbits for SAGE III while on ISS, use of TD assemblies to move payloads from the Dragon trunk to the Enhanced Operational Transfer Platform (EOTP) to its final home on the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to Space Station (ExPRESS) Logistics Carrier (ELC)-4, incorporation of older models in varying unit sets, ability to change units easily (including hardcoded logic blocks), case-based logic to facilitate activating heaters and active elements for varying scenarios within a single model, incorporation of several coordinate frames to easily map to structural models with differing geometries and locations, and streamlined results processing using an Excel-based text file plotter developed in-house at LaRC. This document presents an overview of the SAGE III thermal model and describes the development and implementation of these efficiency-improving analysis methods.

  4. Chemical analysis of simulated high level waste glasses to support stage III sulfate solubility modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, K. M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-03-17

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Management (EM) is sponsoring an international, collaborative project to develop a fundamental model for sulfate solubility in nuclear waste glass. The solubility of sulfate has a significant impact on the achievable waste loading for nuclear waste forms within the DOE complex. These wastes can contain relatively high concentrations of sulfate, which has low solubility in borosilicate glass. This is a significant issue for low-activity waste (LAW) glass and is projected to have a major impact on the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Sulfate solubility has also been a limiting factor for recent high level waste (HLW) sludge processed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The low solubility of sulfate in glass, along with melter and off-gas corrosion constraints, dictate that the waste be blended with lower sulfate concentration waste sources or washed to remove sulfate prior to vitrification. The development of enhanced borosilicate glass compositions with improved sulfate solubility will allow for higher waste loadings and accelerate mission completion.The objective of the current scope being pursued by SHU is to mature the sulfate solubility model to the point where it can be used to guide glass composition development for DWPF and WTP, allowing for enhanced waste loadings and waste throughput at these facilities. A series of targeted glass compositions was selected to resolve data gaps in the model and is identified as Stage III. SHU fabricated these glasses and sent samples to SRNL for chemical composition analysis. SHU will use the resulting data to enhance the sulfate solubility model and resolve any deficiencies. In this report, SRNL provides chemical analyses for the Stage III, simulated HLW glasses fabricated by SHU in support of the sulfate solubility model development.

  5. A Conceptual Model of the Role of Communication in Surrogate Decision Making for Hospitalized Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torke, Alexia M.; Petronio, Sandra; Sachs, Greg A.; Helft, Paul R.; Purnell, Christianna

    2011-01-01

    Objective To build a conceptual model of the role of communication in decision making, based on literature from medicine, communication studies and medical ethics. Methods We propose a model and describe each construct in detail. We review what is known about interpersonal and patient-physician communication, describe literature about surrogate-clinician communication, and discuss implications for our developing model. Results The communication literature proposes two major elements of interpersonal communication: information processing and relationship building. These elements are composed of constructs such as information disclosure and emotional support that are likely to be relevant to decision making. We propose these elements of communication impact decision making, which in turn affects outcomes for both patients and surrogates. Decision making quality may also mediate the relationship between communication and outcomes. Conclusion Although many elements of the model have been studied in relation to patient-clinician communication, there is limited data about surrogate decision making. There is evidence of high surrogate distress associated with decision making that may be alleviated by communication–focused interventions. More research is needed to test the relationships proposed in the model. Practice Implications Good communication with surrogates may improve both the quality of medical decisions and outcomes for the patient and surrogate. PMID:21889865

  6. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  7. Models in animal collective decision-making: information uncertainty and conflicting preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Larissa

    2012-04-06

    Collective decision-making plays a central part in the lives of many social animals. Two important factors that influence collective decision-making are information uncertainty and conflicting preferences. Here, I bring together, and briefly review, basic models relating to animal collective decision-making in situations with information uncertainty and in situations with conflicting preferences between group members. The intention is to give an overview about the different types of modelling approaches that have been employed and the questions that they address and raise. Despite the use of a wide range of different modelling techniques, results show a coherent picture, as follows. Relatively simple cognitive mechanisms can lead to effective information pooling. Groups often face a trade-off between decision accuracy and speed, but appropriate fine-tuning of behavioural parameters could achieve high accuracy while maintaining reasonable speed. The right balance of interdependence and independence between animals is crucial for maintaining group cohesion and achieving high decision accuracy. In conflict situations, a high degree of decision-sharing between individuals is predicted, as well as transient leadership and leadership according to needs and physiological status. Animals often face crucial trade-offs between maintaining group cohesion and influencing the decision outcome in their own favour. Despite the great progress that has been made, there remains one big gap in our knowledge: how do animals make collective decisions in situations when information uncertainty and conflict of interest operate simultaneously?

  8. Automatically updating predictive modeling workflows support decision-making in drug design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muegge, Ingo; Bentzien, Jörg; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Hughes, Robert O

    2016-09-01

    Using predictive models for early decision-making in drug discovery has become standard practice. We suggest that model building needs to be automated with minimum input and low technical maintenance requirements. Models perform best when tailored to answering specific compound optimization related questions. If qualitative answers are required, 2-bin classification models are preferred. Integrating predictive modeling results with structural information stimulates better decision making. For in silico models supporting rapid structure-activity relationship cycles the performance deteriorates within weeks. Frequent automated updates of predictive models ensure best predictions. Consensus between multiple modeling approaches increases the prediction confidence. Combining qualified and nonqualified data optimally uses all available information. Dose predictions provide a holistic alternative to multiple individual property predictions for reaching complex decisions.

  9. Modelling of the L-band brightness temperatures measured with ELBARA III radiometer on Bubnow wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluba, Lukasz; Sagan, Joanna; Lukowski, Mateusz; Szlazak, Radoslaw; Usowicz, Boguslaw

    2017-04-01

    Microwave radiometry has become the main tool for investigating soil moisture (SM) with remote sensing methods. ESA - SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite operating at L-band provides global distribution of soil moisture. An integral part of SMOS mission are calibration and validation activities involving measurements with ELBARA III which is an L-band microwave passive radiometer. It is done in order to improve soil moisture retrievals - make them more time-effective and accurate. The instrument is located at Bubnow test-site, on the border of cultivated field, fallow, meadow and natural wetland being a part of Polesie National Park (Poland). We obtain both temporal and spatial dependences of brightness temperatures for varied types of land covers with the ELBARA III directed at different azimuths. Soil moisture is retrieved from brightness temperature using L-band Microwave Emission of the Biosphere (L-MEB) model, the same as currently used radiative transfer model for SMOS. Parametrization of L-MEB, as well as input values are still under debate. We discuss the results of SM retrievals basing on data obtained during first year of the radiometer's operation. We analyze temporal dependences of retrieved SM for one-parameter (SM), two-parameter (SM, τ - optical depth) and three-parameter (SM, τ, Hr - roughness parameter) retrievals, as well as spatial dependences for specific dates. Special case of Simplified Roughness Parametrization, combining the roughness parameter and optical depth, is considered. L-MEB processing is supported by the continuous measurements of soil moisture and temperature obtained from nearby agrometeorological station, as well as studies on the soil granulometric composition of the Bubnow test-site area. Furthermore, for better estimation of optical depth, the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed, supported by measured in situ vegetation parameters (such as Leaf Area Index and Vegetation

  10. T3_MM: a Markov model effectively classifies bacterial type III secretion signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yejun; Sun, Ming'an; Bao, Hongxia; White, Aaron P

    2013-01-01

    Type III Secretion Systems (T3SSs) play important roles in the interaction between gram-negative bacteria and their hosts. T3SSs function by translocating a group of bacterial effector proteins into the host cytoplasm. The details of specific type III secretion process are yet to be clarified. This research focused on comparing the amino acid composition within the N-terminal 100 amino acids from type III secretion (T3S) signal sequences or non-T3S proteins, specifically whether each residue exerts a constraint on residues found in adjacent positions. We used these comparisons to set up a statistic model to quantitatively model and effectively distinguish T3S effectors. In this study, the amino acid composition (Aac) probability profiles conditional on its sequentially preceding position and corresponding amino acids were compared between N-terminal sequences of T3S and non-T3S proteins. The profiles are generally different. A Markov model, namely T3_MM, was consequently designed to calculate the total Aac conditional probability difference, i.e., the likelihood ratio of a sequence being a T3S or a non-T3S protein. With T3_MM, known T3S and non-T3S proteins were found to well approximate two distinct normal distributions. The model could distinguish validated T3S and non-T3S proteins with a 5-fold cross-validation sensitivity of 83.9% at a specificity of 90.3%. T3_MM was also shown to be more robust, accurate, simple, and statistically quantitative, when compared with other T3S protein prediction models. The high effectiveness of T3_MM also indicated the overall Aac difference between N-termini of T3S and non-T3S proteins, and the constraint of Aac exerted by its preceding position and corresponding Aac. An R package for T3_MM is freely downloadable from: http://biocomputer.bio.cuhk.edu.hk/softwares/T3_MM. T3_MM web server: http://biocomputer.bio.cuhk.edu.hk/T3DB/T3_MM.php.

  11. Model of human collective decision-making in complex environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Giuseppe; Giannoccaro, Ilaria

    2015-12-01

    A continuous-time Markov process is proposed to analyze how a group of humans solves a complex task, consisting in the search of the optimal set of decisions on a fitness landscape. Individuals change their opinions driven by two different forces: (i) the self-interest, which pushes them to increase their own fitness values, and (ii) the social interactions, which push individuals to reduce the diversity of their opinions in order to reach consensus. Results show that the performance of the group is strongly affected by the strength of social interactions and by the level of knowledge of the individuals. Increasing the strength of social interactions improves the performance of the team. However, too strong social interactions slow down the search of the optimal solution and worsen the performance of the group. In particular, we find that the threshold value of the social interaction strength, which leads to the emergence of a superior intelligence of the group, is just the critical threshold at which the consensus among the members sets in. We also prove that a moderate level of knowledge is already enough to guarantee high performance of the group in making decisions.

  12. New models for decision making in moral theology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, E F

    1986-01-01

    The way that the Christian tradition faces moral issues is being reshaped. Rather than focusing solely on Scripture and tradition as the basis for resolving ethical issues, decision makers should investigate human experience as well, some contemporary theologians recommend. In contrast to a traditional notion of natural law, which analyzes "human nature," the revisionist approach analyzes human experiences to discover what is authentic in them. This process looks not only at the physical structure of an act but also at its intentionality and its effect on the parties involved. Absolute material norms do not exist, according to the revisionist school. Instead one must examine an act's effects on a person's relationship to God, to others, to the physical world, and to oneself to determine whether it is morally right or wrong. Although this theological trend could be disconcerting to those who serve on ethics committees--since it does not rely on clear-cut rules--and may make decision making more difficult, its value lies in its potential to bring Christians closer to a divine understanding of reality.

  13. The Integrated Medical Model: A Decision Support Tool for In-flight Crew Health Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Doug

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the development of an Integrated Medical Model (IMM) decision support tool for in-flight crew health care safety. Clinical methods, resources, and case scenarios are also addressed.

  14. A Decision-Making Model to Remove Discrepancies: Application to a Reading Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gigch, John P.

    1974-01-01

    Author believes that the application of the Decision-Making Model to the removal of "discrepancies" allows the teachers and other school agents to proceed with changes in an orderly and rational manner. (Author)

  15. A statistical model for predicting the retrieval rate of separated instruments and clinical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Lin

    2015-12-01

    Conclusion: A statistical model relating to root canal curvature and depth of separated instruments was established to evaluate the retrieval rate of separated instruments, and the result of this formulation may provide clues for clinical decision-making.

  16. Decision Analysis Model for Refreshment of Geobase Imagery: Basis for Investment Strategy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Craig, Matthew

    2003-01-01

    .... The accuracy of the imagery directly impacts the effectiveness of GeoBase. The purpose of this thesis was to develop a decision model to be used in determining imagery refreshment in an installation's...

  17. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ecklund, Marshall V

    2005-01-01

    .... Thus, the central research question is as follows: Given a report of the physical location of an evader, is the military using the most rational decision-making model to offset the predictable nature of traditional recovery activities...

  18. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  19. Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

  20. A Multi Criteria Group Decision-Making Model for Teacher Evaluation in Higher Education Based on Cloud Model and Decision Tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ting-Cheng; Wang, Hui

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a cloud multi-criteria group decision-making model for teacher evaluation in higher education which is involving subjectivity, imprecision and fuzziness. First, selecting the appropriate evaluation index depending on the evaluation objectives, indicating a clear structural relationship between the evaluation index and…

  1. DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettings, M.; Hirst, E.; Yourstone, E.

    1991-02-01

    Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.

  2. A Hybrid Learning Model of Tactical Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, Todd

    2000-01-01

    ...), and how experience affects order effects. The experimental results were modeled using a hybrid symbolic-connectionist cognitive model that used Soar as the symbolic component and a modified version of Echo as the connectionist component...

  3. Service Level Decision-making in Rural Physiotherapy: Development of Conceptual Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Robyn; Jones, Anne; Lefmann, Sophie; Sheppard, Lorraine

    2016-06-01

    Understanding decision-making about health service provision is increasingly important in an environment of increasing demand and constrained resources. Multiple factors are likely to influence decisions about which services will be provided, yet workforce is the most noted factor in the rural physiotherapy literature. This paper draws together results obtained from exploration of service level decision-making (SLDM) to propose 'conceptual' models of rural physiotherapy SLDM. A prioritized qualitative approach enabled exploration of participant perspectives about rural physiotherapy decision-making. Stakeholder perspectives were obtained through surveys and in-depth interviews. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and reviewed by participants. Participant confidentiality was maintained by coding both participants and sites. A system theory-case study heuristic provided a framework for exploration across sites within the investigation area: a large area of one Australian state with a mix of regional, rural and remote communities. Thirty-nine surveys were received from participants in 11 communities. Nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with physiotherapists and key decision-makers. Results reveal the complexity of factors influencing rural physiotherapy service provision and the value of a systems approach when exploring decision-making about rural physiotherapy service provision. Six key features were identified that formed the rural physiotherapy SLDM system: capacity and capability; contextual influences; layered decision-making; access issues; value and beliefs; and tensions and conflict. Rural physiotherapy SLDM is not a one-dimensional process but results from the complex interaction of clusters of systems issues. Decision-making about physiotherapy service provision is influenced by both internal and external factors. Similarities in influencing factors and the iterative nature of decision-making emerged, which enabled linking physiotherapy SLDM with

  4. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  5. A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yueh eHsiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

  6. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  7. Modeling information flows in clinical decision support: key insights for enhancing system effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlock, Stephanie; Wyatt, Jeremy C; Patel, Vimla L; Shortliffe, Edward H; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2016-09-01

    A fundamental challenge in the field of clinical decision support is to determine what characteristics of systems make them effective in supporting particular types of clinical decisions. However, we lack such a theory of decision support itself and a model to describe clinical decisions and the systems to support them. This article outlines such a framework. We present a two-stream model of information flow within clinical decision-support systems (CDSSs): reasoning about the patient (the clinical stream), and reasoning about the user (the cognitive-behavioral stream). We propose that CDSS "effectiveness" be measured not only in terms of a system's impact on clinical care, but also in terms of how (and by whom) the system is used, its effect on work processes, and whether it facilitates appropriate decisions by clinicians and patients. Future research into which factors improve the effectiveness of decision support should not regard CDSSs as a single entity, but should instead differentiate systems based on their attributes, users, and the decision being supported. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Emotion, Decision-Making and Substance Dependence: A Somatic-Marker Model of Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdejo-García, A; Pérez-García, M; Bechara, A

    2006-01-01

    Similar to patients with orbitofrontal cortex lesions, substance dependent individuals (SDI) show signs of impairments in decision-making, characterised by a tendency to choose the immediate reward at the expense of severe negative future consequences. The somatic-marker hypothesis proposes that decision-making depends in many important ways on neural substrates that regulate homeostasis, emotion and feeling. According to this model, there should be a link between abnormalities in experiencing emotions in SDI, and their severe impairments in decision-making in real-life. Growing evidence from neuroscientific studies suggests that core aspects of substance addiction may be explained in terms of abnormal emotional guidance of decision-making. Behavioural studies have revealed emotional processing and decision-making deficits in SDI. Combined neuropsychological and physiological assessment has demonstrated that the poorer decision-making of SDI is associated with altered reactions to reward and punishing events. Imaging studies have shown that impaired decision-making in addiction is associated with abnormal functioning of a distributed neural network critical for the processing of emotional information, including the ventromedial cortex, the amygdala, the striatum, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the insular/somato-sensory cortices, as well as non-specific neurotransmitter systems that modulate activities of neural processes involved in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to review this growing evidence, and to examine the extent of which these studies support a somatic-marker model of addiction. PMID:18615136

  9. Modeling Integrated Water-User Decisions with Intermittent Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, J. R.; Rosenberg, D.

    2006-12-01

    We present an economic-engineering method to estimate urban water use demands with intermittent water supplies. A two-stage, probabilistic optimization formulation includes a wide variety of water supply enhancement and conservation actions that individual households can adopt to meet multiple water quality uses with uncertain water availability. We embed the optimization in Monte-Carlo simulations to show aggregate effects at a utility (citywide) scale for a population of user conditions and decisions. Parametric analysis provides derivations of supply curves to subsidize conservation, demand responses to alternative pricing, and customer willingness-to-pay to avoid shortages. Results show a good empirical fit for the average and distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Additional outputs give likely market penetration rates for household conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies required to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, market, and finance conservation programs and interpret a demand curve with block pricing.

  10. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers......Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  11. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  12. Using Covert Response Activation to Test Latent Assumptions of Formal Decision-Making Models in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servant, Mathieu; White, Corey; Montagnini, Anna; Burle, Borís

    2015-07-15

    Most decisions that we make build upon multiple streams of sensory evidence and control mechanisms are needed to filter out irrelevant information. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making have recently been enriched by attentional mechanisms that weight sensory evidence in a dynamic and goal-directed way. However, the framework retains the longstanding hypothesis that motor activity is engaged only once a decision threshold is reached. To probe latent assumptions of these models, neurophysiological indices are needed. Therefore, we collected behavioral and EMG data in the flanker task, a standard paradigm to investigate decisions about relevance. Although the models captured response time distributions and accuracy data, EMG analyses of response agonist muscles challenged the assumption of independence between decision and motor processes. Those analyses revealed covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") in a fraction of trials in which the correct response was finally given, providing intermediate states of evidence accumulation and response activation at the single-trial level. We extended the models by allowing motor activity to occur before a commitment to a choice and demonstrated that the proposed framework captured the rate, latency, and EMG surface of partial errors, along with the speed of the correction process. In return, EMG data provided strong constraints to discriminate between competing models that made similar behavioral predictions. Our study opens new theoretical and methodological avenues for understanding the links among decision making, cognitive control, and motor execution in humans. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making assume that sensory information is accumulated until a criterion quantity of evidence is obtained, from where the decision terminates in a choice and motor activity is engaged. The very existence of covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") during the evidence accumulation

  13. Cortical and hippocampal correlates of deliberation during model-based decisions for rewards in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornstein, Aaron M; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2013-01-01

    How do we use our memories of the past to guide decisions we've never had to make before? Although extensive work describes how the brain learns to repeat rewarded actions, decisions can also be influenced by associations between stimuli or events not directly involving reward - such as when planning routes using a cognitive map or chess moves using predicted countermoves - and these sorts of associations are critical when deciding among novel options. This process is known as model-based decision making. While the learning of environmental relations that might support model-based decisions is well studied, and separately this sort of information has been inferred to impact decisions, there is little evidence concerning the full cycle by which such associations are acquired and drive choices. Of particular interest is whether decisions are directly supported by the same mnemonic systems characterized for relational learning more generally, or instead rely on other, specialized representations. Here, building on our previous work, which isolated dual representations underlying sequential predictive learning, we directly demonstrate that one such representation, encoded by the hippocampal memory system and adjacent cortical structures, supports goal-directed decisions. Using interleaved learning and decision tasks, we monitor predictive learning directly and also trace its influence on decisions for reward. We quantitatively compare the learning processes underlying multiple behavioral and fMRI observables using computational model fits. Across both tasks, a quantitatively consistent learning process explains reaction times, choices, and both expectation- and surprise-related neural activity. The same hippocampal and ventral stream regions engaged in anticipating stimuli during learning are also engaged in proportion to the difficulty of decisions. These results support a role for predictive associations learned by the hippocampal memory system to be recalled during

  14. Cortical and hippocampal correlates of deliberation during model-based decisions for rewards in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron M Bornstein

    Full Text Available How do we use our memories of the past to guide decisions we've never had to make before? Although extensive work describes how the brain learns to repeat rewarded actions, decisions can also be influenced by associations between stimuli or events not directly involving reward - such as when planning routes using a cognitive map or chess moves using predicted countermoves - and these sorts of associations are critical when deciding among novel options. This process is known as model-based decision making. While the learning of environmental relations that might support model-based decisions is well studied, and separately this sort of information has been inferred to impact decisions, there is little evidence concerning the full cycle by which such associations are acquired and drive choices. Of particular interest is whether decisions are directly supported by the same mnemonic systems characterized for relational learning more generally, or instead rely on other, specialized representations. Here, building on our previous work, which isolated dual representations underlying sequential predictive learning, we directly demonstrate that one such representation, encoded by the hippocampal memory system and adjacent cortical structures, supports goal-directed decisions. Using interleaved learning and decision tasks, we monitor predictive learning directly and also trace its influence on decisions for reward. We quantitatively compare the learning processes underlying multiple behavioral and fMRI observables using computational model fits. Across both tasks, a quantitatively consistent learning process explains reaction times, choices, and both expectation- and surprise-related neural activity. The same hippocampal and ventral stream regions engaged in anticipating stimuli during learning are also engaged in proportion to the difficulty of decisions. These results support a role for predictive associations learned by the hippocampal memory system to

  15. A decision model for cost effective design of biomass based green energy supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yılmaz Balaman, Şebnem; Selim, Hasan

    2015-09-01

    The core driver of this study is to deal with the design of anaerobic digestion based biomass to energy supply chains in a cost effective manner. In this concern, a decision model is developed. The model is based on fuzzy multi objective decision making in order to simultaneously optimize multiple economic objectives and tackle the inherent uncertainties in the parameters and decision makers' aspiration levels for the goals. The viability of the decision model is explored with computational experiments on a real-world biomass to energy supply chain and further analyses are performed to observe the effects of different conditions. To this aim, scenario analyses are conducted to investigate the effects of energy crop utilization and operational costs on supply chain structure and performance measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. What role can simulation model predictions play in environmental decisions: carbon dioxide as an example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emanuel, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    Frequently, when an environmental issue requiring quantitative analysis surfaces, the development of a model synthesizing all aspects of the problem and applicable at each stage of the decision process is proposed. A more desirable alternative is to generate models specifically designed to meet the requirements of each level in decision making and which can be adapted in response to the changing status of the environmental issue. Various models of the global carbon cycle constructed to predict levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere as a result of man's activities are described to illustrate this point. In summary, the progression of models developed to analyze the global carbon cycle in resolving the CO 2 /climate issue indicates the changing character of models depending on the immediate role they play in environmental decision making. The dominant and successful role served by models in the carbon cycle problem points to the desirability of this flexible approach

  17. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  18. Improving ingestion dose modelling for the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems: A Nordic Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Nielsen, Sven Poul; Thørring, Håvard

    2011-01-01

    A Nordic work group under the NKS-B activity PARDNOR has revised the input parameters in the ECOSYS model that is incorporated for ingestion dose modelling in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems. The new parameterisation takes into account recent measurement data, and targets the model...

  19. Do different methods of modeling statin treatment effectiveness influence the optimal decision?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.J.H. van Kempen (Bob); B.S. Ferket (Bart); A. Hofman (Albert); S. Spronk (Sandra); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPurpose. Modeling studies that evaluate statin treatment for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) use different methods to model the effect of statins. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of using different modeling methods on the optimal decision found in such

  20. A Decision-Making Model For Managing or Regenerating Southern Upland Hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Kyle Cunningham; Andrew W. Ezell; Keith L. Belli; John D. Hodges

    2004-01-01

    A decision-making model for managing or regenerating southern upland hardwoods is being created for three physiographic provinces including the Cumberland Plateau, Western Highland Rim, and Upper Coastal Plain. The model performs a stand evaluation, from a silvicultural standpoint, and declares a stand as being either manageable or in need of regeneration. Model...

  1. A Decision Model for Evaluating Potential Change in Instructional Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amor, J. P.; Dyer, J. S.

    A statistical model designed to assist elementary school principals in the process of selection educational areas which should receive additional emphasis is presented. For each educational area, the model produces an index number which represents the expected "value" per dollar spent on an instructional program appropriate for strengthening that…

  2. Prediction Models and Decision Support: Chances and Challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, T.H.

    2015-01-01

    A clinical prediction model can assist doctors in arriving at the most likely diagnosis or estimating the prognosis. By utilizing various patient- and disease-related properties, such models can yield objective estimations of the risk of a disease or the probability of a certain disease course for

  3. A mode III moving interfacial crack based on strip magneto-electric polarization saturation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Xiaodong; Zhong, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with a mode III Yoffe-type interfacial crack propagating subsonically under the moving strip magneto-electric saturation model. Nonlinear effects are characterized by different magnetic and electric saturation strips around the crack tip. Employing the extended Stroh method, we obtain generalized moving interfacial dislocation densities analytically under impermeable magneto-electric crack boundary conditions. The generalized intensity factor and local energy release rate with nonlinear effects are derived as fracture parameters for the moving magneto-electro-elastic (MEE) interfacial crack. Numerical results are presented to show the characteristics of fracture dominant parameters with respect to the loading as well as the propagation velocity. In addition, a dimensionless parameter defined by the ratio of the volume fraction of the composite constituents is proposed to evaluate the influences of the MEE bimaterial properties. This research will give us ideas on material selection for optimizing the fracture toughness of MEE composites. (paper)

  4. Revisited: The South Dakota Board of Nursing theory-based regulatory decisioning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damgaard, Gloria; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2012-07-01

    The authors of this column describe the South Dakota Board of Nursing's 11 year journey utilizing a humanbecoming theory-based regulatory decisioning model. The column revisits the model with an emphasis on the cocreation of a strategic plan guiding the work of the South Dakota Board of Nursing through 2014. The strategic plan was influenced by the latest refinements of the humanbecoming postulates and the humanbecoming community change concepts. A graphic picture of the decisioning model is presented along with future plans for the theory-based model.

  5. Apoptotic and chemotherapeutic properties of iron(III-salophene in an ovarian cancer animal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thilo S Lange

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Thilo S Lange1,2, Carolyn McCourt2, Rakesh K Singh2, Kyu Kwang Kim2, Ajay P Singh3, Brian S Luisi4, Onur Alptürk5, Robert M Strongin6, Laurent Brard21Division of Biology and Medicine Brown University, Providence, R1, USA; 2Molecular Therapeutics Laboratory, Program in Women’s Oncology, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Women and Infants’ Hospital of RI, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, RI, USA; 3Department of Plant Biology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA; 4Department of Chemistry, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA; 5Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA; 6Department of Chemistry, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USAAbstract: The cytotoxicity of organometallic compounds iron(III-, cobalt(III-, manganese(II-, and copper(II-salophene (-SP on platinum-resistant ovarian cancer cell lines was compared. Fe-SP displayed selective cytotoxicity (IC50 at ∼1 μM against SKOV-3 and OVCAR-3 cell lines while Co-SP caused cytotoxic effects only at higher concentrations (IC50 at 60 μM and Cu-SP effects were negligible. High cytotoxicity of Mn-SP (30–60 μM appeared to be nonspecific because the Mn-chloride salt reduced cell viability similarly. The effect of Fe-SP at 1 μM proved to be ovarian cancer cell selective when compared to a panel of cell lines derived from different tumors. The first irreversible step in the induction of cell death by Fe-SP occurred after 3 hrs as indicated by the mitochondrial transmembrane potential (ΔΨm and was mainly linked to apoptotic, not necrotic events. To evaluate the toxicity of Fe-SP in vivo we conducted an acute toxicity study in rats. The LD50 of Fe-SP is >2000 mg/kg orally and >5.5 mg/kg body weight by intraperitoneal injection. An ovarian cancer animal model showed that the chemotherapeutic relevant dose of Fe-SP in rats is 0.5–1 mg/kg body weight. The present report suggests that Fe-SP is a

  6. Development of a hydrogen diffusion gothic model of MARK III-containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, Zhen-Yu [National Tsing Hua Univ., Dept. of Engineering and System Science, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Huang, Yu-Kai; Pei, Bau-Shei [National Tsing Hua Univ., Inst. of Nuclear Engineering Science, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Wen-Sheng [National Tsing Hua Univ., Nuclear Science and Technology Development Center, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Chen, Yen-Shu [Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Nuclear Engineering Div., Taiyuan County, Taiwan (China)

    2015-07-15

    The accident that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is a reminder of the danger of hydrogen explosion within a reactor building. Sufficiently high hydrogen concentration may cause an explosion that could damage the structure, resulting in the release of radioisotopes into the environment. In the first part of this study, a gas diffusion experiment was performed, in which helium was used as the working fluid. An analytical model was also developed using the GOTHIC code and the model predictions of the helium distribution were found to be in good agreement with the experimentally measured data. In the second part of the study, a model of the Mark III containment of the Kuosheng Plant in Taiwan was developed, and was applied to a long-term station blackout (SBO) accident similar to that of the Fukushima plant. The hydrogen generation was calculated using the Modular Accident Analysis Program and was used as the boundary condition for the GOTHIC containment model. The simulation results revealed that the hydrogen concentration at the first floor of the wetwell in the containment reached 4 % 9.7 h after the accident. This indicated the possibility of dangerous conditions inside the containment. Although active hydrogen ignitors are already installed in the Kuosheng plant, the findings of this study indicate that it may be necessary to add passive recombiners to prolong an SBO event.

  7. Development of a hydrogen diffusion gothic model of MARK III-containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, Zhen-Yu; Huang, Yu-Kai; Pei, Bau-Shei; Hsu, Wen-Sheng; Chen, Yen-Shu

    2015-01-01

    The accident that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is a reminder of the danger of hydrogen explosion within a reactor building. Sufficiently high hydrogen concentration may cause an explosion that could damage the structure, resulting in the release of radioisotopes into the environment. In the first part of this study, a gas diffusion experiment was performed, in which helium was used as the working fluid. An analytical model was also developed using the GOTHIC code and the model predictions of the helium distribution were found to be in good agreement with the experimentally measured data. In the second part of the study, a model of the Mark III containment of the Kuosheng Plant in Taiwan was developed, and was applied to a long-term station blackout (SBO) accident similar to that of the Fukushima plant. The hydrogen generation was calculated using the Modular Accident Analysis Program and was used as the boundary condition for the GOTHIC containment model. The simulation results revealed that the hydrogen concentration at the first floor of the wetwell in the containment reached 4 % 9.7 h after the accident. This indicated the possibility of dangerous conditions inside the containment. Although active hydrogen ignitors are already installed in the Kuosheng plant, the findings of this study indicate that it may be necessary to add passive recombiners to prolong an SBO event.

  8. Bringing Kano’s Perspective to AHP: The 2D-AHP Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Uk

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available AHP and the Kano model are such prevalent TQM tools that it may be surprising that a true hybrid decision-making model has so far eluded researchers. The quest for a hybrid approach is complicated by the differing output perspective of each model, namely discrete ranking (AHP versus a multi-dimensional picture (Kano. This paper presents a hybrid model of AHP and Kano model, so called two-dimension AHP (2D-AHP.

  9. Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

    2012-08-01

    A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

  10. An operational decision-making model for the cognitively sensing-thinking manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, J J

    1992-11-01

    Whereas all managers face decision-making situations, not all managers discharge the decision-making process in the same manner. Individuals possess different personalities that influence how they gather and process information and subsequently make decisions. Research has reported a link between personality type and a preferred cognitive decision-making style. ST personalities prefer structured methods to resolve problems. For ST managers, a three-dimensional decision-making models is proposed. The model is based on the decision-making process initiated by Dewey and evolved by theorists and practitioners over time. Unique to the model is the institution of a second dimension of operational categories. Thus, the decision process is not conducted within a vacuum but within a context defined by the problem to be resolved. A further degree of thoroughness is achieved by unfolding the categorical dimension into sub-categories and conducting the decision-making process at that level. Several additional managerial tools exist that are compatible with the ST cognitive style and that facilitate an effective and efficiency decision process. What does this mean for the practicing health information manager? The manager's first step is to identify his or her personality type. The popularity of the MBTI as an organizational and career counseling tool has received wide acceptance across industries, including health care. The MBTI can be obtained, administered, scored, and interpreted only by trained personnel. Such individuals may be found in human resource and staff development departments; career centers and seminars; and vocational-technical schools, community colleges, and universities.

  11. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Tsalatsanis

    Full Text Available Dual Processing Theories (DPT assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive and type 2 (deliberative. Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  12. Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

  13. Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Chen, Serena H.; El Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Lautenbach, Sven; McIntosh, Brian S.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Seppelt, Ralf; Struss, Peter; Voinov, Alexey; Volk, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase “decision support system” or “decision support tool”, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for

  14. An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S

    2015-07-15

    The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Spreadsheet Decision Support Model for Training Exercise Material Requirements Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tringali, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    ... associated with military training exercises. The model combines the business practice of Material Requirements Planning and the commercial spreadsheet software capabilities of Lotus 1-2-3 to calculate the requirements for food, consumable...

  16. Development of OLI+S Entry Decision Model for Construction Firms in International Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Maznah Binti Mat Isa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to provide a holistic approach to address how construction firms make decisions covering all three domains (location, timing and mode across country, market, firm and project factors within the Ownership, Locational and Internalisation plus Specialty (OLI+S paradigm. Questionnaires were administered to 62 project managers based on a sampling frame provided by the Construction Industry Development Board Malaysia. The findings provide empirical and theoretical insights on how the OLI+S model addresses firms’ entry decisions to penetrate international markets. It suggests that the ownership-entry decision factors focus on firms’ internal transferable advantages. The locational-entry decision factors emphasise attractiveness of certain locations where firms decided to invest and operate. The internalisation– entry decision factors emphasise the extent to which firms were able to manipulate their internal competitive assets (firm’s resources and capabilities. Finally, the specialty-entry decision factors emphasise on firms’ competency in project management and specialist expertise to handle complex projects based on their previous project experience. An example of construction firms’ unique characteristics, namely, specialty advantages based on the original Dunning’s OLI eclectic paradigm has been adopted. The established OLI+S entry decision model could be investigated to further refine other related internationalisation theory.

  17. A case study of high school teachers' decision making models for planning and teaching science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duschl, Richard A.; Wright, Emmett

    The focus of this study was to investigate the manner and the degree to which science teachers consider the nature of the subject matter in their decision making addressing the planning and the delivery of instructional tasks. An assumption of the study is that considerations for the nature of the subject matter should be a factor in a teacher's decision making about what to teach and how to teach. Relevant research literature reviewed includes (1) human decision making and the development of cognitive models of reality, (2) modern philosophies of science, and (3) philosophy of science and science education. Methods of data collection and of data analysis followed Spradley's Developmental Research Sequence guidelines for conducting ethnographic research. Validity of research findings was established from the triangulation of observations, interviews, and documents and surveys. The goal of the research was the development of grounded hypotheses about science TEACHERS' pedagogical decision making. Based on the results of this study it is hypothesized that science TEACHERS' decision-making models of reality for the selection, implementation, and development of instructional tasks are dominated by considerations for (a) student development, (b) curriculum guide objectives, and (c) pressures of accountability. Little, if any, consideration is given to the nature of the subject matter by the science teachers in decision making. Implications exist for the disenfranchisement of teachers from the task of making decisions concerning what to teach.

  18. The Use of Decision-Analytic Models in Atopic Eczema: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, Emma; Sach, Tracey; Levell, Nick

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this systematic review was to identify and assess the quality of published economic decision-analytic models within atopic eczema against best practice guidelines, with the intention of informing future decision-analytic models within this condition. A systematic search of the following online databases was performed: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, Scopus, Health Technology Assessment, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry and Web of Science. Papers were eligible for inclusion if they described a decision-analytic model evaluating both the costs and benefits associated with an intervention or prevention for atopic eczema. Data were extracted using a standardised form by two independent reviewers, whilst quality was assessed using the model-specific Philips criteria. Twenty-four models were identified, evaluating either preventions (n = 12) or interventions (n = 12): 14 reported using a Markov modelling approach, four utilised decision trees and one a discrete event simulation, whilst five did not specify the approach. The majority, 22 studies, reported that the intervention was dominant or cost effective, given the assumptions and analytical perspective taken. Notably, the models tended to be short-term (16 used a time horizon of ≤1 year), often providing little justification for the limited time horizon chosen. The methodological and reporting quality of the studies was generally weak, with only seven studies fulfilling more than 50% of their applicable Philips criteria. This is the first systematic review of decision models in eczema. Whilst the majority of models reported favourable outcomes in terms of the cost effectiveness of the new intervention, the usefulness of these findings for decision-making is

  19. A decision rule based on goal programming and one-stage models for uncertain multi-criteria mixed decision making and games against nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with games against nature and multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty along with scenario planning. We focus on decision problems where a deterministic evaluation of criteria is not possible. The procedure we propose is based on weighted goal programming and may be applied when seeking a mixed strategy. A mixed strategy allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new method takes into consideration the decision maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem. It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies, i.e. for decision making under complete uncertainty or decision making under strategic uncertainty. The procedure refers to one-stage models, i.e. models considering combinations of scenarios and criteria (scenario-criterion pairs as distinct meta-attributes, which means that the novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets. The algorithm does not require any information about frequencies, which is especially desirable for new decision problems. It can be successfully applied by passive decision makers, as only criteria weights and the coefficient of optimism have to be declared.

  20. Prioritization of engineering support requests and advanced technology projects using decision support and industrial engineering models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavana, Madjid

    1995-01-01

    The evaluation and prioritization of Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) is a particularly difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) -- Shuttle Project Engineering Office. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant pieces of information concerning Safety, Supportability, O&M Cost Savings, Process Enhancement, Reliability, and Implementation. Various analytical and normative models developed over the past have helped decision makers at KSC utilize large volumes of information in the evaluation of ESR's. The purpose of this project is to build on the existing methodologies and develop a multiple criteria decision support system that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The model utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and Maximize Agreement Heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of ESR's.

  1. A model of real estate and psychological factors in decision-making to buy real estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Grum

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the psychological characteristics of potential real estate buyers connected with their decision to buy. Through a review of research, it reveals that most studies of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate have a partial and dispersed orientation, and examine individual factors independently. It appears that the research area is lacking clearly defined models of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate that would integrally and relationally explain the role of psychological characteristics of real estate buyers and their expectations in relation to a decision to buy. The article identifies two sets of psychological factors, motivational and emotional, determines their interaction with potential buyers’ expectations when deciding to purchase real estate and offers starting points for forming a model.

  2. Pricing decision model for new and remanufactured short-life cycle products with time-dependent demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu San Gan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we develop a model that optimizes the price for new and remanufactured short life-cycle products where demands are time-dependent and price sensitive. While there has been very few published works that attempt to model remanufacturing decisions for products with short life cycle, we believe that there are many situations where remanufacturing short life cycle products is rewarding economically as well as environmentally. The system that we model consists of a retailer, a manufacturer, and a collector of used product from the end customers. Two different scenarios are evaluated for the system. The first is the independent situation where each party attempts to maximize his/her own total profit and the second is the joint profit model where we optimize the combined total profit for all three members of the supply chain. Manufacturer acts as the Stackelberg leader in the independently optimized scenario, while in the other the intermediate prices are determined by coordinated pricing policy. The results suggest that (i reducing the price of new products during the decline phase does not give better profit for the whole system, (ii the total profit obtained from optimizing each player is lower than the total profit of the integrated model, and (iii speed of change in demand influences the robustness of the prices as well as the total profit gained.

  3. Blood oxygen level dependent magnetic resonance imaging for detecting pathological patterns in lupus nephritis patients: a preliminary study using a decision tree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Huilan; Jia, Junya; Li, Dong; Wei, Li; Shang, Wenya; Zheng, Zhenfeng

    2018-02-09

    Precise renal histopathological diagnosis will guide therapy strategy in patients with lupus nephritis. Blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been applicable noninvasive technique in renal disease. This current study was performed to explore whether BOLD MRI could contribute to diagnose renal pathological pattern. Adult patients with lupus nephritis renal pathological diagnosis were recruited for this study. Renal biopsy tissues were assessed based on the lupus nephritis ISN/RPS 2003 classification. The Blood oxygen level dependent magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD-MRI) was used to obtain functional magnetic resonance parameter, R2* values. Several functions of R2* values were calculated and used to construct algorithmic models for renal pathological patterns. In addition, the algorithmic models were compared as to their diagnostic capability. Both Histopathology and BOLD MRI were used to examine a total of twelve patients. Renal pathological patterns included five classes III (including 3 as class III + V) and seven classes IV (including 4 as class IV + V). Three algorithmic models, including decision tree, line discriminant, and logistic regression, were constructed to distinguish the renal pathological pattern of class III and class IV. The sensitivity of the decision tree model was better than that of the line discriminant model (71.87% vs 59.48%, P patterns.

  4. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  5. Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, B.A.

    1980-11-01

    This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the models were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.

  6. Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

    2013-09-30

    Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa O.

    2003-01-01

    Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms, such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm, involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than th...

  8. An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

    2017-05-15

    We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. The Exploratory Modeling Workbench : An open source toolkit for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and (multi-objective) robust decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakkel, J.H.

    2017-01-01

    There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring

  10. Development and validation of a model TRIGA Mark III reactor with code MCNP5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galicia A, J.; Francois L, J. L.; Aguilar H, F.

    2015-09-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to obtain a model of the reactor core TRIGA Mark III that accurately represents the real operating conditions to 1 M Wth, using the Monte Carlo code MCNP5. To provide a more detailed analysis, different models of the reactor core were realized by simulating the control rods extracted and inserted in conditions in cold (293 K) also including an analysis for shutdown margin, so that satisfied the Operation Technical Specifications. The position they must have the control rods to reach a power equal to 1 M Wth, were obtained from practice entitled Operation in Manual Mode performed at Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares (ININ). Later, the behavior of the K eff was analyzed considering different temperatures in the fuel elements, achieving calculate subsequently the values that best represent the actual reactor operation. Finally, the calculations in the developed model for to obtain the distribution of average flow of thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons in the six new experimental facilities are presented. (Author)

  11. Trihalomethane exposures in indoor swimming pools: a level III fugacity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyck, Roberta; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Simard, Sabrina; Tardif, Robert

    2011-10-15

    The potential for generation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in swimming pools is high due to the concentrations of chlorine required to maintain adequate disinfection, and the presence of organics introduced by the swimmers. Health Canada set guidelines for trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water; however, no such guideline exists for swimming pool waters. Exposure occurs through ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact in swimming pools. In this research, a multimedia model is developed to evaluate exposure concentrations of THMs in the air and water of an indoor swimming pool. THM water concentration data were obtained from 15 indoor swimming pool facilities in Quebec (Canada). A level III fugacity model is used to estimate inhalation, dermal contact and ingestion exposure doses. The results of the proposed model will be useful to perform a human health risk assessment and develop risk management strategies including developing health-based guidelines for disinfection practices and the design of ventilation system for indoor swimming pools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Interaction of anticancer Ru(III) complexes with single stranded and duplex DNA model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musumeci, Domenica; Rozza, Lucia; Merlino, Antonello; Paduano, Luigi; Marzo, Tiziano; Massai, Lara; Messori, Luigi; Montesarchio, Daniela

    2015-08-21

    The interaction of the anticancer Ru(iii) complex AziRu - in comparison with its analogue NAMI-A, currently in advanced clinical trials as an antimetastatic agent - with DNA model systems, both single stranded and duplex oligonucleotides, was investigated using a combined approach, including absorption UV-vis spectroscopy, circular dichroism (CD) and electrospray mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) techniques. UV-vis absorption spectra of the Ru complexes were recorded at different times in a pseudo-physiological solution, to monitor the ligand exchange processes in the absence and in the presence of the examined oligonucleotides. CD experiments provided information on the overall conformational changes of the DNA model systems induced by these metal complexes. UV- and CD-monitored thermal denaturation studies were performed to analyse the effects of AziRu and NAMI-A on the stability of the duplex structures. ESI-MS experiments, carried out on the oligonucleotide/metal complex mixtures under investigation, allowed us to detect the formation of stable adducts between the guanine-containing oligomers and the ruthenium complexes. These data unambiguously demonstrate that both AziRu and NAMI-A can interact with the DNA model systems. Although very similar in their structures, the two metal compounds manifest a markedly different reactivity with the examined sequences, respectively, with either a naked Ru(3+) ion or a Ru(Im)(3+) (Im = imidazole) fragment being incorporated into the oligonucleotide structure via stable linkages.

  13. An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Ascough, J.C.; Liu, J.; Luckai, N.; Mailly, D.; Archambault, L.; Gordon, Andrew M.

    2011-01-01

    The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

  14. Individual decision-making in the causal pathway to addiction: contributions and limitations of rodent models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Serge H

    2018-01-01

    The causal pathway from vulnerability to drug use and addiction involves a complex interaction between genetic, environmental, and behavioral factors. An individual can intervene on this causal pathway by two major types of individual decision. There is the inaugural, momentous decision to use a drug for the first time. This decision is influenced by both prior knowledge on the drug and its expected effects, and also by prior self-knowledge on one's own vulnerability. After an individual has used a drug for the first time, there is the decision to repeat drug use. This decision is influenced by the same factors that were involved in the inaugural decision to initiate drug use, except for one crucial difference. The first drug use has now acted on the individual, changing its brain acutely and also potentially persistently in a way that could bias subsequent decision-making in favor of repeated drug use. The goal of this review article is to assess the contributions and limitations of rodent models (i.e., rats, mice) to understand how prior drug use can influence decision-making in a way that favors future drug use. Overall, research on rodents shows that prior drug use can increase impulsive, risky and/or potentially harmful decision-making. However, this does not apparently translate into more drug use when rodents have the choice between a drug and a competing, nondrug option, except when the expected value of the latter is considerably decreased. The delayed drug reward hypothesis is developed to resolve and explain this apparent discrepancy. This novel hypothesis makes several unique predictions, some of them counterintuitive, and suggests that extrapolation of rodent research to humans should not only take into account differences in drug choice situations but also inherent species-specific differences in individual decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. An integrated, ethically driven environmental model of clinical decision making in emergency settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Lisa

    2013-02-01

    To explore the relationship between multiple variables within a model of critical thinking and moral reasoning. A quantitative descriptive correlational design using a purposive sample of 200 emergency nurses. Measured variables were accuracy in clinical decision-making, moral reasoning, perceived care environment, and demographics. Analysis was by bivariate correlation using Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficients, chi square and multiple linear regression analysis. The elements as identified in the integrated ethically-driven environmental model of clinical decision-making (IEDEM-CD) corrected depict moral reasoning and environment of care as factors significantly affecting accuracy in decision-making. The integrated, ethically driven environmental model of clinical decision making is a framework useful for predicting clinical decision making accuracy for emergency nurses in practice, with further implications in education, research and policy. A diagnostic and therapeutic framework for identifying and remediating individual and environmental challenges to accurate clinical decision making. © 2012, The Author. International Journal of Nursing Knowledge © 2012, NANDA International.

  16. Modeling decision making and control in manufacturing simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.

    A significant shortcoming of traditional simulation languages is the lack of attention paid to the modeling of control structures, i.e., the humans or systems responsible for manufacturing planning and control, their activities and the mutual tuning of their activities. Mostly they are hard coded

  17. Modeling Human Decision Processes in Command and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-02-14

    cognitive skills of the operator predominate over the motor skills, there are virtually no normative-descriptive models. Indeed, there is not even a...tion error) and, for mathematical simplicity in the sequel, assume that 6i(t) is available as a discrete-time proceso , either sampled at t-kA from a con

  18. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Traditional approaches towards determining the economic production lot (EPL) size in man- ufacturing applications assume deterministic demand, often at a constant rate. In this paper, an optimisation model is developed for determining the EPL size that minimises production and inventory costs of a periodic ...

  19. Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

  20. DECISION WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODELS ON A TRAFFIC SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Gonçalves Dutra da Silva

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This work aims to demonstrate the use of a mechanism to be applied in the development of the discrete-event simulation models that perform decision operations through the implementation of an artificial neural network. Actions that involve complex operations performed by a human agent in a process, for example, are often modeled in simplified form with the usual mechanisms of simulation software. Therefore, it was chosen a traffic system controlled by a traffic officer with a flow of vehicles and pedestrians to demonstrate the proposed solution. From a module built in simulation software itself, it was possible to connect the algorithm for intelligent decision to the simulation model. The results showed that the model elaborated responded as expected when it was submitted to actions, which required different decisions to maintain the operation of the system with changes in the flow of people and vehicles.

  1. Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alamino, Roberto C

    2016-01-01

    This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget ’ s ladder . The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions. (paper)

  2. GCR Environmental Models III: GCR Model Validation and Propagated Uncertainties in Effective Dose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaba, Tony C.; Xu, Xiaojing; Blattnig, Steve R.; Norman, Ryan B.

    2014-01-01

    This is the last of three papers focused on quantifying the uncertainty associated with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) models used for space radiation shielding applications. In the first paper, it was found that GCR ions with Z>2 and boundary energy below 500 MeV/nucleon induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This is an important finding since GCR model development and validation have been heavily biased toward Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer measurements below 500 MeV/nucleon. Weights were also developed that quantify the relative contribution of defined GCR energy and charge groups to effective dose behind shielding. In the second paper, it was shown that these weights could be used to efficiently propagate GCR model uncertainties into effective dose behind shielding. In this work, uncertainties are quantified for a few commonly used GCR models. A validation metric is developed that accounts for measurements uncertainty, and the metric is coupled to the fast uncertainty propagation method. For this work, the Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) 2010 and 2011 and the Matthia GCR models are compared to an extensive measurement database. It is shown that BON2011 systematically overestimates heavy ion fluxes in the range 0.5-4 GeV/nucleon. The BON2010 and BON2011 also show moderate and large errors in reproducing past solar activity near the 2000 solar maximum and 2010 solar minimum. It is found that all three models induce relative errors in effective dose in the interval [-20%, 20%] at a 68% confidence level. The BON2010 and Matthia models are found to have similar overall uncertainty estimates and are preferred for space radiation shielding applications.

  3. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  4. The Weighted Gray Situation Decision-Making Model Based on the Gray Theory of Decision-Making and Its Application -- An Example of Forest Health Park of Hainan Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuailin; Bai, Zhiyong

    This paper analyses the complication of influence construction of eco-tourism park decision-making, through study on gray situation theory of decision making establishes an new model of decision-making, -- weighted gray situation decision-making model based on the gray situation theory of decision-making, and on the empirical analysis, it gives a new method of gray situation theory used in decision-making of construction.

  5. Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mikel Alonso López

    2016-01-01

    In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been est...

  6. Customer Decision Making in Web Services with an Integrated P6 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhaohao; Sun, Junqing; Meredith, Grant

    Customer decision making (CDM) is an indispensable factor for web services. This article examines CDM in web services with a novel P6 model, which consists of the 6 Ps: privacy, perception, propensity, preference, personalization and promised experience. This model integrates the existing 6 P elements of marketing mix as the system environment of CDM in web services. The new integrated P6 model deals with the inner world of the customer and incorporates what the customer think during the DM process. The proposed approach will facilitate the research and development of web services and decision support systems.

  7. Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

    2018-03-01

    Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

  8. Modelling in support of decision-making for South African extensive beef farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.H. Meyer

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study it is shown that it is possible to build a decision support system for the use of South African extensive beef farmers. Initially models for the key variables which affect extensive beef farmers are developed. These key variables include rainfall, beef, veal and weaner prices and the condition of the veld. This last key variable is monitored using the voluntary lick intake of the cattle and is modelled in terms of rainfall and stocking intensity. Particular attention is paid to the interrelationships between the key variables and to the distribution of modelling errors. The next stage of the study concerns the use of these models as a decision-support tool for extensive beef farmers. It is shown that Monte Carlo simulations and dynamic programming analyses can use these models to suggest how gross margins can be increased. At the same time these methods can be used to monitor the effect of management decisions on mean lick intake and, hence, the effect of these decisions on the condition of the veld. In particular the decisions of "what stocking intensity", "what cattle system", "when to sell" and "when to make a change" are addressed.

  9. A system dynamics model of clinical decision thresholds for the detection of developmental-behavioral disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Christopher Sheldrick

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical decision-making has been conceptualized as a sequence of two separate processes: assessment of patients’ functioning and application of a decision threshold to determine whether the evidence is sufficient to justify a given decision. A range of factors, including use of evidence-based screening instruments, has the potential to influence either or both processes. However, implementation studies seldom specify or assess the mechanism by which screening is hypothesized to influence clinical decision-making, thus limiting their ability to address unexpected findings regarding clinicians’ behavior. Building on prior theory and empirical evidence, we created a system dynamics (SD model of how physicians’ clinical decisions are influenced by their assessments of patients and by factors that may influence decision thresholds, such as knowledge of past patient outcomes. Using developmental-behavioral disorders as a case example, we then explore how referral decisions may be influenced by changes in context. Specifically, we compare predictions from the SD model to published implementation trials of evidence-based screening to understand physicians’ management of positive screening results and changes in referral rates. We also conduct virtual experiments regarding the influence of a variety of interventions that may influence physicians’ thresholds, including improved access to co-located mental health care and improved feedback systems regarding patient outcomes. Results Results of the SD model were consistent with recent implementation trials. For example, the SD model suggests that if screening improves physicians’ accuracy of assessment without also influencing decision thresholds, then a significant proportion of children with positive screens will not be referred and the effect of screening implementation on referral rates will be modest—results that are consistent with a large proportion of published

  10. Business model change : Managerial roles and tactics in decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Oever, Koen; Martin, Xavier; Baden-Fuller, Charles; Mangematin, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    We study the decision-making process behind business model change, focusing specifically on the tactics managers employ to gain support for such changes. We first argue for the prominent role of middle management in business model change, and second, we revisit the literature on issue selling and

  11. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions.

  12. Practical Steps for Informing Literacy Instruction: A Diagnostic Decision-Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibby, Michael W.

    This monograph presents a diagnostic decision-making model for reading, elementary, and special education teachers to use as a guide in assessing and evaluating students' reading abilities to design and provide more appropriate reading instruction. The model in the monograph gives an overall perspective or gestalt of the components and strategies…

  13. Adaptive mastery testing using the Rasch model and Bayesian sequential decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Vos, Hendrik J.

    1998-01-01

    A version of sequential mastery testing is studied in which response behavior is modeled by an item response theory (IRT) model. First, a general theoretical framework is sketched that is based on a combination of Bayesian sequential decision theory and item response theory. A discussion follows on

  14. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of

  15. A Dual-Process Approach to Health Risk Decision Making: The Prototype Willingness Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Houlihan, Amy E.; Stock, Michelle L.; Pomery, Elizabeth A.

    2008-01-01

    Although dual-process models in cognitive, personality, and social psychology have stimulated a large body of research about analytic and heuristic modes of decision making, these models have seldom been applied to the study of adolescent risk behaviors. In addition, the developmental course of these two kinds of information processing, and their…

  16. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

  17. A Decision Model for Steady-State Choice in Concurrent Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Darren R.; Grace, Randolph C.

    2010-01-01

    Grace and McLean (2006) proposed a decision model for acquisition of choice in concurrent chains which assumes that after reinforcement in a terminal link, subjects make a discrimination whether the preceding reinforcer delay was short or long relative to a criterion. Their model was subsequently extended by Christensen and Grace (2008, 2009a,…

  18. Licensing method for new nuclear power plant: A study on decision making modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramli, N; Ohaga, E. O.; Jung, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    This work provides a study on decision making modeling for a licensing method of a new nuclear power plant. SWOT analysis provides the licensing alternatives attributes, then the expectation from either COL or two step licensing method is decided by inputting the output from the Hurwitz mathematical model. From the analysis, COL shows the best candidate for both optimistic and pessimistic conditions

  19. To Be or Not to Be an Entrepreneur: Applying a Normative Model to Career Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callanan, Gerard A.; Zimmerman, Monica

    2016-01-01

    Reflecting the need for a better and broader understanding of the factors influencing the choices to enter into or exit an entrepreneurial career, this article applies a structured, normative model of career management to the career decision-making of entrepreneurs. The application of a structured model can assist career counselors, college career…

  20. The Madrid Train Bombings: A Decision-Making Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-11

    4 Since 9/11 virtually all elements of national power have been used to strategically react to terrorism. 2 This study will analyze a terrorist...election.4 While this caused much controversy within Spain, it also makes an analysis using the Organizational Process Model virtually impossible...Cuerpo Nacional de Polic´ıa or CNP and the Guardia Civil), its counterterrorist agency (Spanish security forces--Fuerzas y Cuerpos de Seguridad del