WorldWideScience

Sample records for model iii decision

  1. Clinical inferences and decisions--III. Utility assessment and the Bayesian decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinall, P A; Hill, A R

    1984-01-01

    It is accepted that errors of misclassifications, however small, can occur in clinical decisions but it cannot be assumed that the importance associated with false positive errors is the same as that for false negatives. The relative importance of these two types of error is frequently implied by a decision maker in the different weighting factors or utilities he assigns to the alternative consequences of his decisions. Formal procedures are available by which it is possible to make explicit in numerical form the value or worth of the outcome of a decision process. The two principal methods are described for generating utilities as associated with clinical decisions. The concept and application of utility is then expanded from a unidimensional to a multidimensional problem where, for example, one variable may be state of health and another monetary assets. When combined with the principles of subjective probability and test criterion selection outlined in Parts I and II of this series, the consequent use of utilities completes the framework upon which the general Bayesian model of clinical decision making is based. The five main stages in this general decision making model are described and applications of the model are illustrated with clinical examples from the field of ophthalmology. These include examples for unidimensional and multidimensional problems which are worked through in detail to illustrate both the principles and methodology involved in a rationalized normative model of clinical decision making behaviour.

  2. Real Life Decision Optimization Model

    OpenAIRE

    Raju, Naga; Reddy, Diwakar; Reddy, Rajeswara; Krishnaiah, G

    2016-01-01

    In real life scientific and engineering problems decision making is common practice. Decision making include single decision maker or group of decision makers. Decision maker’s expressions consists imprecise, inconsistent and indeterminate information. Also, the decision maker cannot select the best solution in unidirectional (single goal) way. Therefore, proposed model adopts decision makers’ opinions in Neutrosophic Values (SVNS/INV) which effectively deals imprecise, inconsistent and indet...

  3. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrion Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs. The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC or probability integral transform (PIT, and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score. Results The instruments under study

  4. Issues in Strategic Decision Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Jennings, Paula

    2008-01-01

    [Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different modelling approaches are specialist areas in themselves. Model development can be onerous, expensive, time consuming, and often bewildering. It is also an iterative process where the true magnitude of the effort, time and data required is often not fully understood until well into the process. This paper explores the traditional approaches to strategic planning modelling commonly used in organisations and considers the application of a real-options approach to match and benefit from the increasing uncertainty in today's rapidly changing world.

  5. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  6. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  7. Tier III Assessments, Data-Based Decision Making, and Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Kristin; Mandal, Arpita

    2011-01-01

    Within the Response-to-Intervention framework, students who fail to profit from high-quality general education instruction, accommodations, and supplemental instruction progress to a more intensive intervention program, sometimes referred to as "Tier III." This article describes a problem-solving approach to designing such intensive, data-based,…

  8. MODULAR APPROACH WITH ROUGH DECISION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision models which adopt rough set theory have been used effectively in many real world applications.However, rough decision models suffer the high computational complexity when dealing with datasets ofhuge size. In this research we propose a new rough decision model that allows making decisions based onmodularity mechanism. According to the proposed approach, large-size datasets can be divided intoarbitrary moderate-size datasets, then a group of rough decision models can be built as separate decisionmodules. The overall model decision is computed as the consensus decision of all decision modulesthrough some aggregation technique. This approach provides a flexible and a quick way for extractingdecision rules of large size information tables using rough decision models.

  9. Modular Approach with Rough Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision models which adopt rough set theory have been used effectively in many real world applications.However, rough decision models suffer the high computational complexity when dealing with datasets ofhuge size. In this research we propose a new rough decision model that allows making decisions based onmodularity mechanism. According to the proposed approach, large-size datasets can be divided intoarbitrary moderate-size datasets, then a group of rough decision models can be built as separate decisionmodules. The overall model decision is computed as the consensus decision of all decision modulesthrough some aggregation technique. This approach provides a flexible and a quick way for extractingdecision rules of large size information tables using rough decision models.

  10. Shared decision making: skill acquisition for year III medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Cathleen E; Reed, Virginia A; Eliassen, M Scottie; Imset, Inger

    2011-01-01

    A foundation of care within a Patient-centered Medical Home (PCMH) is respect for patients' values and preferences. Shared decision making (SDM) involves a set of principles and approaches to working with patients that integrates medical information and data with the preferences, values, and support systems of individual patients facing medical decisions. The value of SDM is increasingly evidenced by the incorporation of principles of SDM into the definitions of patient-centered care and PCMHs, accountable care organizations, and the language of the Health Reform Act of 2010. We developed and integrated a curriculum on SDM in the third-year Family Medicine Clerkship at Dartmouth Medical School. The curriculum consisted of a mix of experiential, classroom, and online experiences designed to provide students with opportunities to learn content, practice skills, and share observations from their preceptorships. Student feedback was an important component of evaluating the SDM curriculum. Themes identified from students' reflections on their own behavior in a Simulated Patient Encounter included an increase in confidence and competence in their ability to use SDM, while noting the disconnect that may exist between what is taught in the clerkship and what they experience in their preceptorships. As this curriculum has developed, we have acquired a deep appreciation of the benefits and challenges of attempting to teach sophisticated communication and decision-making precepts to medical students who are working to master fundamentals of clinical work and who may or may not see such precepts reinforced in practice.

  11. Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

    1986-01-01

    The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

  12. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... identification to the possible decision making. The process makes use of a preliminary problem structuring phase, and an intervention phase featuring the concept of a decision conference where decision-makers and multiple stakeholders have the possibility of interacting with the decision support model...

  13. The KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerr, Thomas A; Dakins, Maxine; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Piet, Steven James

    2002-08-01

    The KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions is a new way of viewing, developing, organizing, and evaluating alternatives for decisions that may affect a wide range of interests and that must factor in long timeframes, enduring hazards, and/or continuing responsibilities. It differs from other models in that it addresses the need for decisions to continue to "work" over long time periods in an ever-changing decision environment. The authors show that the model contains three major universes - knowledge, values, and resources (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE)- that interact and overlap throughout the effective lifetime of a decision. They discuss how decision-makers and decision participants can use the model to craft and analyze decisions and decision processes that stand the test of time. The authors use the U.S. moon-landing program as an example of a major decision process that was sustained over time. They use the model to explain why events unfolded in the way that they did - and why we are where we are today in that program. The authors believe that this model will be especially useful in long-term decision processes such as those that address contamination cleanup programs, long-term environmental stewardship, and the initial siting of facilities with long-term objectives. Companion papers describe the KONVERGENCE Model process steps and implications for intractable cleanup decisions.

  14. Risk estimation and decision-making: implications of the 1980 BEIR-III report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1981-04-01

    The report gives a general background of the implications the current Report of the Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (The BEIR-III Report) may have on societal decision-making in the regulation of activities concerned with the health effects of low-level radiation. (ACR)

  15. Leveraging business intelligence to make better decisions: Part III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimers, Mona

    2014-01-01

    Accounts receivable and scheduling datasets have been available to medical practices since the 1990s, and discrete medical records data have become available over the past few years. But the frustrations that arose from the difficulties in reporting data grew with each keyboard stroke and mouse click. With reporting mandated to meet changing payment models, measuring quality of care and medical outcomes, practice managers must find more efficient and effective methods of extracting and compiling the data they have in their systems. Taming the reporting beast and learning to effectively apply business intelligence (BI) tools will become an expected managerial proficiency in the next few years. Practice managers' roles are changing quickly, and they will be required to understand the meaning of their practice's data and craft ways to leverage that data toward a strategic advantage.

  16. Using Modularity with Rough Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many real world applications need to deal with imprecise data. Therefore, there is a need for new techniques which can manage such imprecision. Computational Intelligence (CI techniques are the most appropriate for dealing with imprecise data to help decision makers. It is well known that soft computing techniques like genetic algorithms, neural networks, and fuzzy logic are effective in dealing with problems without explicit model and characterized by uncertainties Using fuzzy set theory considered as major techniques, which allows decision makers to take a good decision using imprecise inexact data and knowledge. Now using rough set is getting quite necessary to be used for its ability to mining such type of data. In this research, we are looking forward to propose a novel technique, which depends on the integration between fuzzy set concepts and rough set theory in mining relational databases. The proposed model allows introducing modularity mechanism, by building a virtual modular decision tables according to variety of decision makers points of view. And introduce decision grouping mechanism for getting the optimizing decision. This approach provides flexibility in decision making verifies all decision standards and determines decision requirements, through modularizing rough decision table, extraction of rough association rules and developing mechanisms for decision grouping.

  17. USING MODULARITY WITH ROUGH DECISION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Many real world applications need to deal with imprecise data. Therefore, there is a need for newtechniques which can manage such imprecision. Computational Intelligence (CI techniques are the mostappropriate for dealing with imprecise data to help decision makers. It is well known that soft computingtechniques like genetic algorithms, neural networks, and fuzzy logic are effective in dealing with problemswithout explicit model and characterized by uncertainties Using fuzzy set theory considered as majortechniques, which allows decision makers to take a good decision using imprecise inexact data andknowledge. Now using rough set is getting quite necessary to be used for its ability to mining such type ofdata. In this research, we are looking forward to propose a novel technique, which depends on theintegration between fuzzy set concepts and rough set theory in mining relational databases. The proposedmodel allows introducing modularity mechanism, by building a virtual modular decision tables accordingto variety of decision makers points of view. And introduce decision grouping mechanism for getting theoptimizing decision. This approach provides flexibility in decision making verifies all decision standardsand determines decision requirements, through modularizing rough decision table, extraction of roughassociation rules and developing mechanisms for decision grouping.

  18. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  19. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  20. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  1. Modeling Non-Standard Financial Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J.D. Potter van Loon (Rogier)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstractThere are clear theoretical predictions on how a rational person should make financial decisions. When real-life choices are made, however, people often deviate from what economic theory prescribes. This thesis investigates the modeling of non-standard financial decision making by an

  2. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  3. Job Aiding/Training Decision Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-09-01

    I[ -, . 1’, oo Ii AL-CR-i1992-0004 AD-A256 947lEE = IIEI ifl ll 1l I JOB AIDING/TRAINING DECISION PROCESS MODEL A R M John P. Zenyuh DTIC S Phillip C...March 1990 - April 1990 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS C - F33615-86-C-0545 Job Aiding/Training Decision Process Model PE - 62205F PR - 1121 6...Components to Process Model Decision and Selection Points ........... 32 13. Summary of Subject Recommendations for Aiding Approaches

  4. Decision modeling and acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    compensation value of a human life and a public money equivalent of a human life, where the last value usually is considerably larger than the first value, it is possible from the decision analysis to determine an upper limit that the public should impose on the ratio of the owner´s expected loss rate......) that combines wealth in terms of Gross Domestic Product per person, life expectancy at birth, and yearly work time into a single number. The philosophy behind the published evaluations is that the prevention of a loss of a life is counteracted by a cost such that the LQI remains unchanged (Skjong R, Ronold K......; Decision Analysis; Life quality index; Random interest rate; Risk aversion; Socio-economic value; Uncertainty aversion...

  5. Introduction to Modeling of Buying Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gruenwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Buying decision models of customers to adjust the competitiveness of organizations have been a challenge for marketing disciplines for several generations. This topic has been explored by researchers and academics in past years, and quite an extensive theoretical base exists with a number of approaches for dealing with this challenge.This paper presents some approaches for creating a customer decision model, and provides experimental results from an electronic investigation intended to build the Kano Model; to prove an ability to understand the modeling principle; and to find out the interpretation of the examined demand in a specific market segment involving students of a technical university. The last section of the paper contains a brief introduction to Choice-Based Modeling with Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (CBC, which was tailored for modeling purchasing decisions.

  6. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    2000-01-01

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  7. Towards better modelling and decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Grimm, V; Augusiak, J.

    2014-01-01

    The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE......, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its......, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing...

  8. Towards better modelling and decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Grimm, V; Augusiak, J.;

    2014-01-01

    The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE......, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its......, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing...

  9. Enterprise resource planning implementation decision & optimization models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Shaojun; Wang Gang; Lü Min; Gao Guoan

    2008-01-01

    To study the uncertain optimization problems on implementation schedule, time-cost trade-off and quality in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation, combined with program evaluation and review technique (PERT), some optimization models are proposed, which include the implementation schedule model, the timecost trade-off model, the quality model, and the implementation time-cost-quality synthetic optimization model. A PERT-embedded genetic algorithm (GA) based on stochastic simulation technique is introduced to the optimization models solution. Finally, an example is presented to show that the models and algorithm are reasonable and effective, which can offer a reliable quantitative decision method for ERP implementation.

  10. An Integrated Model for Optimization Oriented Decision Aiding and Rule Based Decision Making in Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yousefli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a fuzzy decision aid system is developed base on new concepts that presented in the field of fuzzy decision making in fuzzy environment (FDMFE. This framework aids decision makers to understand different circumstances of an uncertain problem that may occur in the future. Also, to keep decision maker from the optimization problem complexities, a decision support system, which can be replaced by optimization problem, is presented to make optimum or near optimum decisions without solving optimization problem directly. An application of the developed decision aid model and the decision support system is presented in the field of inventory models.

  11. A warehouse design decision model: case study

    OpenAIRE

    Geraldes, Carla A. S. (Ed.); Carvalho, Maria do Sameiro; Pereira, Guilherme

    2008-01-01

    Today’s competitive and volatile market requires flexibility, quality and efficiency from the logistics operations. In this context, warehouses are an important link of the logistic chain and warehouse management plays an important role over customer's service. Throughout this work we analyze a mathematical model aiming to support warehouse management decisions. A case study is used for that purpose and the model jointly identifies product allocation to the functional areas in the warehouse, ...

  12. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  13. MODELING NATURAL ATTENUATION OF FUELS WITH BIOPLUME III

    Science.gov (United States)

    A natural attenuation model that simulates the aerobic and anaerobic biodegradation of fuel hydrocarbons was developed. The resulting model, BIOPLUME III, demonstrates the importance of biodegradation in reducing contaminant concentrations in ground water. In hypothetical simulat...

  14. Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

    CERN Document Server

    Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

  15. Using Modularity with Rough Decision Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed T. Shawky; Hesham A. Hefny; Ashraf H. Abd-Elwahab

    2012-01-01

    Many real world applications need to deal with imprecise data. Therefore, there is a need for new techniques which can manage such imprecision. Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques are the most appropriate for dealing with imprecise data to help decision makers. It is well known that soft computing techniques like genetic algorithms, neural networks, and fuzzy logic are effective in dealing with problems without explicit model and characterized by uncertainties Using fuzzy s...

  16. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  17. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Numerous design decisions are made while developing software systems, which influence the architecture of these systems as well as following decisions. A number of decision management tools already exist for capturing, documenting, and maintaining design decisions, but also for guiding developers...... the development process. In this report, we propose an integration of a decision management and a UML-based modeling tool, based on use cases we distill from a case study: the modeling tool shall show all decisions related to a model and allow its users to extend or update them; the decision management tool shall...... trigger the modeling tool to realize design decisions in the models. We define tool-independent concepts and architecture building blocks supporting these use cases and present how they can be implemented in the IBM Rational Software Modeler and Architectural Decision Knowledge Wiki. This seamless...

  18. Clinical Productivity System - A Decision Support Model

    CERN Document Server

    Bennett, Casey C

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of a data-driven clinical productivity system that leverages Electronic Health Record (EHR) data to provide productivity decision support functionality in a real-world clinical setting. The system was implemented for a large behavioral health care provider seeing over 75,000 distinct clients a year. Design/methodology/approach: The key metric in this system is a "VPU", which simultaneously optimizes multiple aspects of clinical care. The resulting mathematical value of clinical productivity was hypothesized to tightly link the organization's performance to its expectations and, through transparency and decision support tools at the clinician level, affect significant changes in productivity, quality, and consistency relative to traditional models of clinical productivity. Findings: In only 3 months, every single variable integrated into the VPU system showed significant improvement, including a 30% rise in revenue, 10% rise in clinical percentage, a...

  19. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  20. [Mathematical models of decision making and learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2008-07-01

    Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.

  1. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    to enforce design decisions (modify the models). We define tool-independent concepts and architecture building blocks supporting these requirements and present first ideas how this can be implemented in the IBM Rational Software Modeler and Architectural Decision Knowledge Wiki. This seamless integration......Numerous design decisions including architectural decisions are made while developing a software system, which influence the architecture of the system as well as subsequent decisions. Several tools already exist for managing design decisions, i.e. capturing, documenting, and maintaining them......, but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models...

  2. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  3. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice ‘an

  4. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  5. Statistical Decision-Tree Models for Parsing

    CERN Document Server

    Magerman, D M

    1995-01-01

    Syntactic natural language parsers have shown themselves to be inadequate for processing highly-ambiguous large-vocabulary text, as is evidenced by their poor performance on domains like the Wall Street Journal, and by the movement away from parsing-based approaches to text-processing in general. In this paper, I describe SPATTER, a statistical parser based on decision-tree learning techniques which constructs a complete parse for every sentence and achieves accuracy rates far better than any published result. This work is based on the following premises: (1) grammars are too complex and detailed to develop manually for most interesting domains; (2) parsing models must rely heavily on lexical and contextual information to analyze sentences accurately; and (3) existing {$n$}-gram modeling techniques are inadequate for parsing models. In experiments comparing SPATTER with IBM's computer manuals parser, SPATTER significantly outperforms the grammar-based parser. Evaluating SPATTER against the Penn Treebank Wall ...

  6. Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern

  7. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  8. Theoretical bases of modeling decision-marketing solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Grigoruk Pavel Mikhaylovych

    2012-01-01

    The paper deals with issues related with theoretical aspects of modelling of marketing decision making process. According to system approach marketing decision making process is seen as a set of related subprocesses. Provided an opportunity to use the economic and mathematical modelling at each stage of the decision making process.

  9. Recovery boiler model; Soodakattilan kehitystyoe III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janka, K.; Ylitalo, M.; Sundstroem, K.; Helke, R.; Heinola, M. [Kvaerner Pulping Oy, Tampere (Finland)

    1997-10-01

    The recovery boiler model was further tested and developed. At this moment the model includes submodels for: droplet drying, pyrolysis, char burning, gas burning and for droplet trajectory. During 1996 the formation of CH{sub 4} during pyrolysis and release of sulfur was included to the model. Further the formation of NO from fuel nitrogen and formation of thermal- NO were included to the model using Arrhenius type reaction rate equations. The calculated results are realistic and the model is used as a tool to find out methods to increase the efficiency and availability and decrease the emissions. Analysing the results of the earlier field study of 8 boilers showed that the furnace heat load, fuming rate, find the black liquor composition have influence on the enrichment of the potassium to the fly ash. (orig.)

  10. Decision Making, Models of Mind, and the New Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Colin W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…

  11. Decision Making, Models of Mind, and the New Cognitive Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Colin W.

    1998-01-01

    Explores implications for understanding educational decision making from a cognitive science perspective. Examines three models of mind providing the methodological framework for decision-making studies. The "absent mind" embodies the behaviorist research tradition. The "functionalist mind" underwrites traditional cognitivism…

  12. STUDY OF NEUROSES: III AN EMPIRICAL MODEL*

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatti, Ranbir S.; Channabasavanna, S.M.

    1986-01-01

    SUMMARY The empirical model presented in this paper is based on observations made on 60 neurotics and 60 normals matched at the individual level. Efforts are made to use the systems approach to present this paradigm synthesising both individual and environmental resources. We are of the opinion that this model is not only useful in understanding the genesis of neuroses rather has utility at the intervention level as well.

  13. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Building upon on the smoothness of the response of an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM to changes of four adjustable parameters, Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate the AGCM. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  14. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM around four adjustable parameters. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g. how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  15. [Decision analysis in radiology using Markov models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, W

    2000-01-01

    Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness.

  16. Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    yahia, Nesrine Ben; Bellamine, Narjès; Ghezala, Henda Ben

    2012-01-01

    Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be mad...

  17. Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process

    OpenAIRE

    Yahia, Nesrine Ben; Bellamine, Narjès; Ghezala, Henda Ben

    2012-01-01

    Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be mad...

  18. Decision Making in the PICU: An Examination of Factors Influencing Participation Decisions in Phase III Randomized Clinical Trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E. Slosky

    2014-01-01

    participate were not related to enrollment. Conclusion. Decisions to participate in research by surrogates of children in the PICU appear to relate to child demographics and subtleties in communication; however, no modifiable characteristics were related to increased participation, indicating that the informed consent process may not be compromised in this population.

  19. A control theory model for human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levison, W. H.

    1972-01-01

    The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

  20. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  1. Modeling decisions information fusion and aggregation operators

    CERN Document Server

    Torra, Vicenc

    2007-01-01

    Information fusion techniques and aggregation operators produce the most comprehensive, specific datum about an entity using data supplied from different sources, thus enabling us to reduce noise, increase accuracy, summarize and extract information, and make decisions. These techniques are applied in fields such as economics, biology and education, while in computer science they are particularly used in fields such as knowledge-based systems, robotics, and data mining. This book covers the underlying science and application issues related to aggregation operators, focusing on tools used in practical applications that involve numerical information. Starting with detailed introductions to information fusion and integration, measurement and probability theory, fuzzy sets, and functional equations, the authors then cover the following topics in detail: synthesis of judgements, fuzzy measures, weighted means and fuzzy integrals, indices and evaluation methods, model selection, and parameter extraction. The method...

  2. Decision models in designing flexible production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florescu Adriana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flexible production system is a complex whole that raise some issues in terms of its design and in relation to the conditions for implementing it. To implement a flexible production system configuration must be found that satisfies both economic and system performance requirements. The configuration which best meet the objectives of introducing a flexible production system must be sought in the set of alternatives defined and evaluated. In this paper we present a methodology of realising the configuration and complex evaluation of the analyzed system. It will be developed models which generate new alternative configurations, optimization and evaluation models of the performance of the flexible production system. This will create a framework for interactive decision support, user-oriented that can be used by management to solve this selection problem. The applicative character of the study consist in tracking of the technological process in real time using the developed software package on the designed system, based on mathematical models for configuration and optimization of the system.

  3. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent...

  4. The study of prescriptive and descriptive models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok A Divekar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The field of decision making can be loosely divided into two parts: the study of prescriptive models and the study of descriptive models. Prescriptive decision scientists are concerned with prescribing methods for making optimal decisions. Descriptive decision researchers are concerned with the bounded way in which the decisions are actually made. The statistics courses treat risk from a prescriptive, by suggesting rational methods. This paper brings out the work done by many researchers by examining the psychological factors that explain how managers deviate from rationality in responding to uncertainty.

  5. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  6. Modelling contractor’s bidding decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biruk Sławomir

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors aim to provide a set of tools to facilitate the main stages of the competitive bidding process for construction contractors. These involve 1 deciding whether to bid, 2 calculating the total price, and 3 breaking down the total price into the items of the bill of quantities or the schedule of payments to optimise contractor cash flows. To define factors that affect the decision to bid, the authors rely upon literature on the subject and put forward that multi-criteria methods are applied to calculate a single measure of contract attractiveness (utility value. An attractive contract implies that the contractor is likely to offer a lower price to increase chances of winning the competition. The total bid price is thus to be interpolated between the lowest acceptable and the highest justifiable price based on the contract attractiveness. With the total bid price established, the next step is to split it between the items of the schedule of payments. A linear programming model is proposed for this purpose. The application of the models is illustrated with a numerical example.

  7. Multiview coding mode decision with hybrid optimal stopping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tiesong; Kwong, Sam; Wang, Hanli; Wang, Zhou; Pan, Zhaoqing; Kuo, C-C Jay

    2013-04-01

    In a generic decision process, optimal stopping theory aims to achieve a good tradeoff between decision performance and time consumed, with the advantages of theoretical decision-making and predictable decision performance. In this paper, optimal stopping theory is employed to develop an effective hybrid model for the mode decision problem, which aims to theoretically achieve a good tradeoff between the two interrelated measurements in mode decision, as computational complexity reduction and rate-distortion degradation. The proposed hybrid model is implemented and examined with a multiview encoder. To support the model and further promote coding performance, the multiview coding mode characteristics, including predicted mode probability and estimated coding time, are jointly investigated with inter-view correlations. Exhaustive experimental results with a wide range of video resolutions reveal the efficiency and robustness of our method, with high decision accuracy, negligible computational overhead, and almost intact rate-distortion performance compared to the original encoder.

  8. Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    restrictions are important in that nonadditive decision weights can be used to "explain" many anomalies of standard choice theory . Implications. There are...1974). On utility functions. Theory and Decision, 5, 205-242. Chew, S. H., & MacCrimmon, K. R. Alpha-nu choice theory : A generalization of expected

  9. Decision tree modeling with relational views

    CERN Document Server

    Bentayeb, Fadila

    2002-01-01

    Data mining is a useful decision support technique that can be used to discover production rules in warehouses or corporate data. Data mining research has made much effort to apply various mining algorithms efficiently on large databases. However, a serious problem in their practical application is the long processing time of such algorithms. Nowadays, one of the key challenges is to integrate data mining methods within the framework of traditional database systems. Indeed, such implementations can take advantage of the efficiency provided by SQL engines. In this paper, we propose an integrating approach for decision trees within a classical database system. In other words, we try to discover knowledge from relational databases, in the form of production rules, via a procedure embedding SQL queries. The obtained decision tree is defined by successive, related relational views. Each view corresponds to a given population in the underlying decision tree. We selected the classical Induction Decision Tree (ID3) a...

  10. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  11. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  12. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  13. Thermal Modeling Method Improvements for SAGE III on ISS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liles, Kaitlin; Amundsen, Ruth; Davis, Warren; McLeod, Shawn

    2015-01-01

    The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Many innovative analysis methods have been used in developing this model; these will be described in the paper. This paper builds on a paper presented at TFAWS 2013, which described some of the initial developments of efficient methods for SAGE III. The current paper describes additional improvements that have been made since that time. To expedite the correlation of the model to thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing, the chambers and GSE for both TVAC chambers at Langley used to test the payload were incorporated within the thermal model. This allowed the runs of TVAC predictions and correlations to be run within the flight model, thus eliminating the need for separate models for TVAC. In one TVAC test, radiant lamps were used which necessitated shooting rays from the lamps, and running in both solar and IR wavebands. A new Dragon model was incorporated which entailed a change in orientation; that change was made using an assembly, so that any potential additional new Dragon orbits could be added in the future without modification of the model. The Earth orbit parameters such as albedo and Earth infrared flux were incorporated as time-varying values that change over the course of the orbit; despite being required in one of the ISS documents, this had not been done before by any previous payload. All parameters such as initial temperature, heater voltage, and location of the payload are defined based on the case definition. For one component, testing was performed in both air and vacuum; incorporating the air convection in a submodel that was

  14. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  15. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  16. Decision Making Models Using Weather Forecast Information

    OpenAIRE

    Hiramatsu, Akio; Huynh, Van-Nam; Nakamori, Yoshiteru

    2007-01-01

    The quality of weather forecast has gradually improved, but weather information such as precipitation forecast is still uncertainty. Meteorologists have studied the use and economic value of weather information, and users have to translate weather information into their most desirable action. To maximize the economic value of users, the decision maker should select the optimum course of action for his company or project, based on an appropriate decision strategy under uncertain situations. In...

  17. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions.

  18. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining these ...... these two understandings of the design process, a model has been developed, which describes the different types of decision made during the design process together with strategies that aid the designer in making decisions.......This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  19. Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

    The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

  20. Optimal pricing decision model based on activity-based costing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王福胜; 常庆芳

    2003-01-01

    In order to find out the applicability of the optimal pricing decision model based on conventional costbehavior model after activity-based costing has given strong shock to the conventional cost behavior model andits assumptions, detailed analyses have been made using the activity-based cost behavior and cost-volume-profitanalysis model, and it is concluded from these analyses that the theory behind the construction of optimal pri-cing decision model is still tenable under activity-based costing, but the conventional optimal pricing decisionmodel must be modified as appropriate to the activity-based costing based cost behavior model and cost-volume-profit analysis model, and an optimal pricing decision model is really a product pricing decision model construc-ted by following the economic principle of maximizing profit.

  1. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  2. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  3. IDENTIFYING OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS TO SELECT SUITABLE DECISION MODELS FOR A PUBLIC SECTOR EPROCUREMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Adil

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Public sector procurement should be a transparent and fair process. Strict legal requirements are enforced on public sector procurement to make it a standardised process. To make fair decisions on selecting suppliers, a practical method which adheres to legal requirements is important. The research that is the base for this paper aimed at identifying a suitable Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA method for the specific legal and functional needs of the Maldivian Public Sector. To identify such operational requirements, a set of focus group interviews were conducted in the Maldives with public officials responsible for procurement decision making. Based on the operational requirements identified through focus groups, criteria-based evaluation is done on published MCDA methods to identify the suitable methods for e-procurement decision making. This paper describes the identification of the operational requirements and the results of the evaluation to select suitable decision models for the Maldivian context.

  4. Electronic market models for decision support systems on the Web

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢勇; 王红卫; 费奇

    2004-01-01

    With the prevalence of the Web, most decision-makers are likely to use the Web to support their decision-making. Web-based technologies are leading a major stream of researching decision support systems (DSS). We propose a formal definition and a conceptual framework for Web-based open DSS (WODSS). The formal definition gives an overall view of WODSS, and the conceptual framework based on browser/broker/server computing mode employs the electronic market to mediate decision-makers and providers, and facilitate sharing and reusing of decision resources. We also develop an admitting model, a trading model and a competing model of electronic market in WODSS based on market theory in economics. These models reveal the key mechanisms that drive WODSS operate efficiently.

  5. TWO-STAGE DECISION MODEL OF SOY FOOD CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Rimal, Arbindra; Balasubramanian, Siva K.; Moon, Wanki

    2004-01-01

    Our study examined the role of soy health benefits in consumers' soy consumption decision. Given the large number of respondents who reported no consumption of soy products per month, it was important to model the decision of whether or not to participate in soy market separately from the consumption intensity decision. Estimation results demonstrate that knowledge of health benefits affects both the likelihood of participation and consumption intensity. That is, consumers with higher soy hea...

  6. Klondike III/Biglow Canyon Wind Integration Project; Record of Decision, October 25, 2006.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration

    2006-10-25

    The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has decided to implement the Proposed Action identified in the Klondike III/Biglow Canyon Wind Integration Project Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) (DOE/EIS-0374, September 2006). Under the Proposed Action, BPA will offer PPM Energy, Inc. (PPM) contract terms for interconnection of the proposed Klondike III Wind Project, located in Sherman County, Oregon, with the Federal Columbia River Transmission System (FCRTS). BPA will also offer Portland General Electric (PGE)1 contract terms for interconnection of its proposed Biglow Canyon Wind Farm, also located in Sherman County, Oregon, with the FCRTS, as proposed in the FEIS. To interconnect these wind projects, BPA will build and operate a 12-mile long, 230-kilovolt (kV) double-circuit transmission line between the wind projects and BPA's new 230-kV John Day Substation in Sherman County, Oregon. BPA will also expand its existing 500-kV John Day Substation.

  7. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating Frie

  8. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  9. Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Maynard-Zhang, Pedrito; Kiper, James D.

    2005-01-01

    One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

  10. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating

  11. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating Frie

  12. How and Why Decision Models Influence Marketing Resource Allocations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.L. Lilien (Gary); A. Rangaswamy (Arvind); K. Starke (Katrin); G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractWe study how and why model-based Decision Support Systems (DSSs) influence managerial decision making, in the context of marketing budgeting and resource allocation. We consider several questions: (1) What does it mean for a DSS to be "good?"; (2) What is the relationship between an anch

  13. A decision-making model for engineering designers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...

  14. A Signal Detection Model of Compound Decision Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    strict isolation (for many examples of such models see Egan, 1975; Macmillan & Creelman , 1991). The result has been twofold: A rich corpus of decision...Macmillan & Creelman , 1991). It is important to point out that SDT models are primarily decision models. They specify the rules and procedures for how...Broadbent, 1958; Macmillan & Creelman , 1991; Nolte & Jaarsma, 1967; Swensson & Judy, 1981; Tanner & Norman, 1954). To better understand how these two

  15. The role of business intelligence in decision process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Višnja Istrat

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision making is a very significant and complex function of management that requires methods and techniques that simplify the process of choosing the best alternative. In modern business, the challenge for managers is to find the alternatives for improving the decision-making process. Decisions directly affect profit generation and positioning of the company in the market. It is well-known that people dealt with the phenomenon of decision making in each phase of the development of society, which has triggered the need to learn more about this process. The main contribution of this paper is to show the significance of business intelligence tools and techniques as support to the decision making process of managers. Research results have shown that business intelligence plays an enormous role in modern decision process modeling.

  16. A spiral model of musical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eBangert

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of how musicians make decisions about performing notated music. The model builds on psychological theories of decision-making and was developed from empirical studies of Western art music performance that aimed to identify intuitive and deliberate processes of decision-making, a distinction consistent with dual-process theories of cognition. The model proposes that the proportion of intuitive (Type 1 and deliberate (Type 2 decision-making processes changes with increasing expertise and conceptualises this change as movement along a continually narrowing upward spiral where the primary axis signifies principal decision-making type and the vertical axis marks level of expertise. The model is intended to have implications for the development of expertise as described in two main phases. The first is movement from a primarily intuitive approach in the early stages of learning towards greater deliberation as analytical techniques are applied during practice. The second phase occurs as deliberate decisions gradually become automatic (procedural, increasing the role of intuitive processes. As a performer examines more issues or reconsiders decisions, the spiral motion towards the deliberate side and back to the intuitive is repeated indefinitely. With increasing expertise, the spiral tightens to signify greater control over decision type selection. The model draws on existing theories, particularly Evans’ (2011 Intervention Model of dual-process theories, Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond et al., 1987; Hammond, 2007, and Baylor’s (2001 U-shaped model for the development of intuition by level of expertise. By theorising how musical decision-making operates over time and with increasing expertise, this model could be used as a framework for future research in music performance studies and performance science more generally.

  17. Decision support modeling for milk valorization

    OpenAIRE

    Banaszewska, A.

    2014-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis concerns decision problems in practice that require structured, precise, scientific studies to provide strong, reliable answers. An opportunity to contribute to both practice and science emerged in 2008 when two large, Dutch dairy companies merged, creating FrieslandCampina (FC), which was the fourth largest dairy company in the world at that time. In 2009, a new Milk Valorization & Allocation (MVA) department was created at the corporate level to opt...

  18. Multi-person Decision Model for Unfinished Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a proposed model of multi-person decision on prioritizing selection with regard to continuing or terminating unfinished construction projects. This involved multiple steps including determining criteria and sub criteria, selecting and weighting of alternatives, optimizing, and analyzing coalition formation and agreement option. Criteria and sub criteria that were obtained from perspectives of 120 project managers are the first basis to construct decision hierarchy. The model is implemented in one of the biggest private construction projects in Indonesia. The implementation was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for multi criteria decision involving coalition and agreement options in a multi-person decision. Goal Programming was used to optimize based on cost constrains. The results demonstrate a process of multiperson decision to select priorities of each alternative to each decision and concluded that some of the projects were continued, postponed or terminated. The new direction of research presented in this paper presents some interesting challenges to those involved in modeling computer-based multi-person decision support utilizing both Multi Agent System and Multi Criteria Decision Making.

  19. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  20. Decision making in the treatment of class III furcation: resective therapy? Extraction? Implant?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Wilson Sallum

    Full Text Available The presence of furcation lesions is associated with bone resorption and lack of insertion in the inter-radicular space, and is a condition that considerably increases the risk of dental loss, particularly in the absence of adequate treatment. In this context, the object of some of the therapies is to keep teeth with furcation lesions that are important to dental planning, to re-establish an anatomy that enables the patient to remove dental biofilm from the compromised area. However, the long term maintenance and treatment of molars with Class III furcation lesions continues to be a challenge to dentists during periodontal therapy, since the anatomy of the inter-radicular region makes it difficult for both professionals and patients to gain access to perform adequate and efficient control of dental biofilm. The impossibility of obtaining appropriate decontamination of the area involved during the root scraping process, including by means of surgical access, demands thatdentists have adequate knowledge to determine the correct therapeutic approach during the treatment of teeth with advance inter-radicularbone loss. The aim of the present study was to discuss the treatments available for Class III furcation lesions and relate clinical procedures that could be performed for the treatment of this type of defect.

  1. The ethical decision making model in obstetrics and gynaecology practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazimah Idris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to utilise clinical scenarios where ethical issues are embedded and requires appropriate application of the steps of the framework mentioned. A step by step sequential approach is adopted to illustrate how the ‘ethical decision model ‘can be used to resolve ethical problems to arrive at a reasonable conclusion. The UNESCO ethical method of reasoning is used as the framework for decision making. Physicianeducators should be competent to use ethical decision models as well as best available scientific evidence to be able to arrive at the best decision for patient care as well as teach health professional trainees how reasonable treatment decisions can be made within the perimeter of medical law and social justice.

  2. An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Rosa M.; Martínez, Luis

    2013-01-01

    It is common that experts involved in complex real-world decision problems use natural language for expressing their knowledge in uncertain frameworks. The language is inherent vague, hence probabilistic decision models are not very suitable in such cases. Therefore, other tools such as fuzzy logic and fuzzy linguistic approaches have been successfully used to model and manage such vagueness. The use of linguistic information implies to operate with such a type of information, i.e. processes of computing with words (CWW). Different schemes have been proposed to deal with those processes, and diverse symbolic linguistic computing models have been introduced to accomplish the linguistic computations. In this paper, we overview the relationship between decision making and CWW, and focus on symbolic linguistic computing models that have been widely used in linguistic decision making to analyse if all of them can be considered inside of the CWW paradigm.

  3. Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, Katta G

    2010-01-01

    While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

  4. Yunnan-III models for Evolutionary population synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, F; Han, Z; Zhuang, Y; Kang, X

    2012-01-01

    We build the Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by using the MESA stellar evolution code, BaSeL stellar spectra library and the initial mass functions (IMFs) of Kroupa and Salpeter, and present colours and integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of solar-metallicity stellar populations (SPs) in the range of 1Myr-15 Gyr. The main characteristic of the Yunnan-III EPS models is the usage of a set of self-consistent solar-metallicity stellar evolutionary tracks (the masses of stars are from 0.1 to 100Msun). This set of tracks is obtained by using the state-of-the-art MESA code. MESA code can evolve stellar models through thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase for low- and intermediate-mass stars. By comparisons, we confirm that the inclusion of TP-AGB stars make the V-K, V-J and V-R colours of SPs redder and the infrared flux larger at ages log(t/yr)>7.6 (the differences reach the maximum at log(t/yr)~8.6, ~0.5-0.2mag for colours, ~2 times for K-band flux). The st...

  5. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  6. Reduced model-based decision-making in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culbreth, Adam J; Westbrook, Andrew; Daw, Nathaniel D; Botvinick, Matthew; Barch, Deanna M

    2016-08-01

    Individuals with schizophrenia have a diminished ability to use reward history to adaptively guide behavior. However, tasks traditionally used to assess such deficits often rely on multiple cognitive and neural processes, leaving etiology unresolved. In the current study, we adopted recent computational formalisms of reinforcement learning to distinguish between model-based and model-free decision-making in hopes of specifying mechanisms associated with reinforcement-learning dysfunction in schizophrenia. Under this framework, decision-making is model-free to the extent that it relies solely on prior reward history, and model-based if it relies on prospective information such as motivational state, future consequences, and the likelihood of obtaining various outcomes. Model-based and model-free decision-making was assessed in 33 schizophrenia patients and 30 controls using a 2-stage 2-alternative forced choice task previously demonstrated to discern individual differences in reliance on the 2 forms of reinforcement-learning. We show that, compared with controls, schizophrenia patients demonstrate decreased reliance on model-based decision-making. Further, parameter estimates of model-based behavior correlate positively with IQ and working memory measures, suggesting that model-based deficits seen in schizophrenia may be partially explained by higher-order cognitive deficits. These findings demonstrate specific reinforcement-learning and decision-making deficits and thereby provide valuable insights for understanding disordered behavior in schizophrenia. (PsycINFO Database Record

  7. Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

    CERN Document Server

    Carlson, Jean M; Stromberg, Sean P; Bassett, Danielle S; Craparo, Emily M; Gutierrez-Villarreal, Francisco; Otani, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In each scenario, individuals are faced with a forced "go" versus "no go" evacuation decision, based on information available on competing broadcast and peer-to-peer sources. In this controlled setting, all actions and observations are recorded prior to the decision, enabling development of a quantitative decision making model that accounts for the disaster likelihood, severity, and temporal urgency, as well as competition between networked individuals for limited emergency resources. Individual differences in behavior within this social setting are correlated with individual differences in inh...

  8. A neural model of decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    and inhibitory processes and EEG is still useful for research as a broader and direct measure of brain activity. On this background a new interdisciplinary field linking behavioural economics and neuroscience into a neuroeconomic discipline emerges. Recent reviews of neuroeconomics represent a platform...... for further development of neuroeconomics [McLean 1992 and Luria 1973].    An overview of neuroeconomics from an economic perspective reviewing 13 studies [Kenning and Plassman, 2005]. It is concluded that the first studies are explorative research focusing concepts crucial to modern economic theory...... such as fairness, trust, altruism, memory, learning and knowledge. The goal of neuroeconomics is stated as to provide a descriptive decision-making theory, which is not restricted to economic theory and more realistic than that of economic man.    Reviewing how neuroscience can inform economics [Camerer et al...

  9. Incorporating risk attitude into Markov-process decision models: importance for individual decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cher, D J; Miyamoto, J; Lenert, L A

    1997-01-01

    Most decision models published in the medical literature take a risk-neutral perspective. Under risk neutrality, the utility of a gamble is equivalent to its expected value and the marginal utility of living a given unit of time is the same regardless of when it occurs. Most patients, however, are not risk-neutral. Not only does risk aversion affect decision analyses when tradeoffs between short- and long-term survival are involved, it also affects the interpretation of time-tradeoff measures of health-state utility. The proportional time tradeoff under- or overestimates the disutility of an inferior health state, depending on whether the patient is risk-seeking or risk-averse (it is unbiased if the patient is risk-neutral). The authors review how risk attitude with respect to gambles for survival duration can be incorporated into decision models using the framework of risk-adjusted quality-adjusted life years (RA-QALYs). They present a simple extension of this framework that allows RA-QALYs to be calculated for Markov-process decision models. Using a previously published Markov-process model of surgical vs expectant treatment for benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH), they show how attitude towards risk affects the expected number of QALYs calculated by the model. In this model, under risk neutrality, surgery was the preferred option. Under mild risk aversion, expectant treatment was the preferred option. Risk attitude is an important aspect of preferences that should be incorporated into decision models where one treatment option has upfront risks of morbidity or mortality.

  10. Hydroxo-bridged dicopper(II,III) and -(III,III) complexes: models for putative intermediates in oxidation catalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvagar, Mohammad Reza; Solntsev, Pavlo V; Lim, Hyeongtaek; Hedman, Britt; Hodgson, Keith O; Solomon, Edward I; Cramer, Christopher J; Tolman, William B

    2014-05-21

    A macrocyclic ligand (L(4-)) comprising two pyridine(dicarboxamide) donors was used to target reactive copper species relevant to proposed intermediates in catalytic hydrocarbon oxidations by particulate methane monooxygenase and heterogeneous zeolite systems. Treatment of LH4 with base and Cu(OAc)2·H2O yielded (Me4N)2[L2Cu4(μ4-O)] (1) or (Me4N)[LCu2(μ-OH)] (2), depending on conditions. Complex 2 was found to undergo two reversible 1-electron oxidations via cyclic voltammetry and low-temperature chemical reactions. On the basis of spectroscopy and theory, the oxidation products were identified as novel hydroxo-bridged mixed-valent Cu(II)Cu(III) and symmetric Cu(III)2 species, respectively, that provide the first precedence for such moieties as oxidation catalysis intermediates.

  11. Building models for marketing decisions : past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, Dick R.

    2000-01-01

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models t

  12. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    2000-01-01

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models t

  13. A Decision Model for Locating Controversial Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumphrey, Anthony J.; And Others

    1971-01-01

    Locating controversial public facilities, such as highways or airports, that generate significant public opposition requires a more sophisticated methodology than the traditional least cost" procedures for minimizing physical costs. Two models--a short-run political placation" model and a long-run welfare distribution" model--evaluate the…

  14. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm on...

  15. Eu(III) adsorption on rutile:Batch experiments and modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Eu(III) adsorption on rutile was investigated as a function of contact time,pH,ionic strength and Eu(III) concentration by using a batch experimental method.The effects of carbonate,sulfate,and phosphate were also studied.It was found that the kinetics of Eu(III) adsorption on rutile could be described by a pseudo-second-order model.The adsorption of Eu(III) on rutile is strongly pH-dependent,but relatively insensitive to ionic strength.A double layer model (DLM) with two inner-sphere Eu(III) surface complexes was applied to quantitatively interpret the adsorption of Eu(III) on rutile.There were no apparent effects of carbonate and sulfate on Eu(III) adsorption,whereas the presence of phosphate promoted Eu(III) adsorption on rutile.The surface complexes of Eu(III) on rutile were evidenced by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS).

  16. MULTI SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES DECISION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阎威武; 陈治纲; 邵惠鹤

    2002-01-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a powerful machine learning method developed from statistical learning theory and is currently an active field in artificial intelligent technology. SVM is sensitive to noise vectors near hyperplane since it is determined only by few support vectors. In this paper, Multi SVM decision model(MSDM)was proposed. MSDM consists of multiple SVMs and makes decision by synthetic information based on multi SVMs. MSDM is applied to heart disease diagnoses based on UCI benchmark data set. MSDM somewhat inproves the robust of decision system.

  17. Decision making in the transtheoretical model of behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, James O

    2008-01-01

    Decision making is an integral part of the transtheoretical model of behavior change. Stage of change represents a temporal dimension for behavior change and has been the key dimension for integrating principles and processes of change from across leading theories of psychotherapy and behavior change. The decision-making variables representing the pros and cons of changing have been found to have systematic relationships across the stages of change for 50 health-related behaviors. Implications of these patterns of relationships are discussed in the context of helping patients make more effective decisions to decrease health risk behaviors and increase health-enhancing behaviors.

  18. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  19. The DO ART Model: An Ethical Decision-Making Model Applicable to Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Jessica; Ling, Thomson

    2016-01-01

    Although art therapists have discussed the importance of taking a positive stance in terms of ethical decision making (Hinz, 2011), an ethical decision-making model applicable for the field of art therapy has yet to emerge. As the field of art therapy continues to grow, an accessible, theoretically grounded, and logical decision-making model is…

  20. Unicriterion Model: A Qualitative Decision Making Method That Promotes Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Guilherme Silvano Lobo Pimentel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Management decision making methods frequently adopt quantitativemodels of several criteria that bypass the question of whysome criteria are considered more important than others, whichmakes more difficult the task of delivering a transparent viewof preference structure priorities that might promote ethics andlearning and serve as a basis for future decisions. To tackle thisparticular shortcoming of usual methods, an alternative qualitativemethodology of aggregating preferences based on the rankingof criteria is proposed. Such an approach delivers a simpleand transparent model for the solution of each preference conflictfaced during the management decision making process. Themethod proceeds by breaking the decision problem into ‘two criteria– two alternatives’ scenarios, and translating the problem ofchoice between alternatives to a problem of choice between criteriawhenever appropriate. The unicriterion model method is illustratedby its application in a car purchase and a house purchasedecision problem.

  1. The Role of Mental Models in Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    REINE EN DROIT DU CANADA (2009) Défense Nationale Canada Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page i Abstract The complex and...help to guide human decision-making. He proposes an alternative descriptive model, the Critique , Explore, Compare, Adapt (CECA) Loop. This model is...section). Humansystems® Incorporated Mental Models and DDM Page 45 The Critique phase involves questioning the conceptual model (“how you want it to

  2. Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean M Carlson

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

  3. Modeling the Evolution of Incised Streams: III. Model Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Incision and ensuing widening of alluvial stream channels is widespread in the midsouth and midwestern United States and represents an important form of channel adjustment. Two accompanying papers have presented a robust computational model for simulating the long-term evolution of incised and resto...

  4. Yunnan-III models for evolutionary population synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Li, L.; Han, Z.; Zhuang, Y.; Kang, X.

    2013-02-01

    We build the Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by using the mesa stellar evolution code, BaSeL stellar spectra library and the initial mass functions (IMFs) of Kroupa and Salpeter, and present colours and integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of solar-metallicity stellar populations (SPs) in the range of 1 Myr to 15 Gyr. The main characteristic of the Yunnan-III EPS models is the usage of a set of self-consistent solar-metallicity stellar evolutionary tracks (the masses of stars are from 0.1 to 100 M⊙). This set of tracks is obtained by using the state-of-the-art mesa code. mesa code can evolve stellar models through thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase for low- and intermediate-mass stars. By comparisons, we confirm that the inclusion of TP-AGB stars makes the V - K, V - J and V - R colours of SPs redder and the infrared flux larger at ages log(t/yr) ≳ 7.6 [the differences reach the maximum at log(t/yr) ˜ 8.6, ˜0.5-0.2 mag for colours, approximately two times for K-band flux]. We also find that the colour-evolution trends of Model with-TPAGB at intermediate and large ages are similar to those from the starburst99 code, which employs the Padova-AGB stellar library, BaSeL spectral library and the Kroupa IMF. At last, we compare the colours with the other EPS models comprising TP-AGB stars (such as CB07, M05, V10 and POPSTAR), and find that the B - V colour agrees with each other but the V-K colour shows a larger discrepancy among these EPS models [˜1 mag when 8 ≲ log(t/yr) ≲ 9]. The stellar evolutionary tracks, isochrones, colours and ISEDs can be obtained on request from the first author or from our website (http://www1.ynao.ac.cn/~zhangfh/). Using the isochrones, you can build your EPS models. Now the format of stellar evolutionary tracks is the same as that in the starburst99 code; you can put them into the starburst99 code and get the SP's results. Moreover, the colours involving other passbands

  5. Open Models of Decision Support Towards a Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Diasio, Stephen Ray

    2012-01-01

    Aquesta tesi presenta un marc per als models oberts de suport a les decisions en les organitzacions. El treball es vehicula a través d’un compendi d’articles on s’analitzen els fluxos d’entrada i de sortida de coneixement en les organitzacions, així como les tecnologies existents de suport a les decisions. Es presenten els factors subjacents que impulsen nous models per a formes obertes de suport a la decisió. La tesis presenta un estudi de les distintes tipologies de models de suport a les d...

  6. The Intelligent Decision Support System Model of SARS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhouXingyu; ZhangJiang; LiuYang; XieYanqing; ZhangRan; ZhaoYang; HeZhongxiong

    2004-01-01

    Based on the intelligent decision support system, a new method was presented to defense the catastrophic infectious disease such as SARS, Bird Flu, etc.. By using All Set theory, the decision support system (DSS) model can be built to analyze the noise information and forecast the trend of the catastrophe then to give the method or policy to defend the disease. The model system is composed of four subsystems: the noise analysis subsystem, forecast and simulation subsystem, diagnosis subsystem and second recovery subsystem. They are discussed briefly in this paper. This model can be used not only for SARS but also for other paroxysmal accidences.

  7. Entity Modeling and Immersive Decision Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    enhanced visual displays. The team also demonstrated 6-degrees of freedom (6DoF) aero models in a real-time or near real-time training network, and...developed rule sets for functional handoff of aero models from one level of complexity to another to maximize computational capability. The above tasking...motion blur reduction shutter was used to systematically manipulate hold time causing luminance to co-vary with hold time. Thus, a fourth independent

  8. Modeling Conflict And Exchange In Collective Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.

    1995-01-01

    Two dynamic models of collecuve decision maklng are Introduced and lllustrated wlth a simple example. A more extensive presentation and appllcauon concerning the European Community can be found In Bueno de Mesqulta and Stokman (19941. The two dynamlc models reflect two alternative views of collectiv

  9. Model based decision support for planning of road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Worm, J.M.; Harten, van A.

    1996-01-01

    In this article we describe a Decision Support Model, based on Operational Research methods, for the multi-period planning of maintenance of bituminous pavements. This model is a tool for the road manager to assist in generating an optimal maintenance plan for a road. Optimal means: minimising the N

  10. A normative model of hospital marketing decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, K L; Brown, G; Humphreys, N

    1993-01-01

    A hospital marketing model is proposed for use as a framework for applying marketing strategy and concepts to hospitals. The cells of the model, primarily summarizing the many decisions of the marketing management process as can be applied to hospitals, are justified by the health care marketing literature.

  11. A binuclear Fe(III)Dy(III) single molecule magnet. Quantum effects and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferbinteanu, Marilena; Kajiwara, Takashi; Choi, Kwang-Yong; Nojiri, Hiroyuki; Nakamoto, Akio; Kojima, Norimichi; Cimpoesu, Fanica; Fujimura, Yuichi; Takaishi, Shinya; Yamashita, Masahiro

    2006-07-19

    The binuclear [FeIII(bpca)(mu-bpca)Dy(NO3)4], having Single Molecule Magnet (SMM) properties, belonging to a series of isostructural FeIIILnIII complexes (Ln = Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho) and closely related FeIILnIII chain structures, was characterized in concise experimental and theoretical respects. The low temperature magnetization data showed hysteresis and tunneling. The anomalous temperature dependence of Mössbauer spectra is related to the onset of magnetic order, consistent with the magnetization relaxation time scale resulting from AC susceptibility measurements. The advanced ab initio calculations (CASSCF and spin-orbit) revealed the interplay of ligand field, spin-orbit, and exchange effects and probed the effective Ising nature of the lowest states, involved in the SMM and tunneling effects.

  12. The MAPPINGS III Library of Fast Radiative Shock Models

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Mark G; Dopita, Michael A; Sutherland, Ralph S; Kewley, Lisa J

    2008-01-01

    We present a new library of fully-radiative shock models calculated with the MAPPINGS III shock and photoionization code. The library consists of grids of models with shock velocities in the range v=100-1000 km/s and magnetic parameters B/sqrt(n) of 10^-4 - 10 muG cm^(3/2) for five different atomic abundance sets, and for a pre-shock density of 1.0 cm^(-3). Additionally, Solar abundance model grids have been calculated for densities of 0.01, 0.1, 10, 100, and 1000 cm^(-3) with the same range in v and B/sqrt(n). Each model includes components of both the radiative shock and its photoionized precursor, ionized by the EUV and soft X-ray radiation generated in the radiative gas. We present the details of the ionization structure, the column densities, and the luminosities of the shock and its precursor. Emission line ratio predictions are separately given for the shock and its precursor as well as for the composite shock+precursor structure to facilitate comparison with observations in cases where the shock and i...

  13. Modeling Policy and Agricultural Decisions in Afghanistan

    CERN Document Server

    Widener, Michael J; Gros, Andreas; Metcalf, Sara; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2011-01-01

    Afghanistan is responsible for the majority of the world's supply of poppy crops, which are often used to produce illegal narcotics like heroin. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. Parameters representing national subsidies, insurgent influence, and trafficking blockades are varied to represent different conditions that might encourage or discourage poppy agriculture. Our model shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions,...

  14. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

  15. Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Emanuel Hess

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls. In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and healthy controls at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in healthy controls was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

  16. Multitask Efficiencies in the Decision Tree Model

    CERN Document Server

    Drucker, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    In Direct Sum problems [KRW], one tries to show that for a given computational model, the complexity of computing a collection $F = \\{f_i\\}$ of functions on independent inputs is approximately the sum of their individual complexities. In this paper, by contrast, we study the diversity of ways in which the joint computational complexity can behave when all the $f_i$ are evaluated on a \\textit{common} input. Fixing some model of computational cost, let $C_F(X): \\{0, 1\\}^l \\to \\mathbf{R}$ give the cost of computing the subcollection $\\{f_i(x): X_i = 1\\}$, on common input $x$. What constraints do the functions $C_F(X)$ obey, when $F$ is chosen freely? $C_F(X)$ will, for reasonable models, obey nonnegativity, monotonicity, and subadditivity. We show that, in the deterministic, adaptive query model, these are `essentially' the only constraints: for any function $C(X)$ obeying these properties and any $\\epsilon > 0$, there exists a family $F$ of boolean functions and a $T > 0$ such that for all $X \\in \\{0, 1\\}^l$, \\...

  17. Decision Support System for Resource Allocation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-04-01

    by Presutti and Trepp in their paper "Much Ado about EOQ." [2) The constraints used in the stock fund model are total stock fund dollars and limits on...Jersey, 1963. 2. Presutti, Victor J., Jr. and Trepp , Richard C., More Ado About Economic Order Ouantities (EOO), Operations Analysis Office

  18. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  19. Intelligent negotiation model for ubiquitous group decision scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Joo CARNEIRO; Diogo MARTINHO; Goreti MARREIROS; Paulo NOVAIS

    2016-01-01

    Supporting group decision-making in ubiquitous contexts is a complex task that must deal with a large amount of factors to succeed. Here we propose an approach for an intelligent negotiation model to support the group decision-making process specifically designed for ubiquitous contexts. Our approach can be used by researchers that intend to include arguments, complex algorithms, and agents’ modeling in a negotiation model. It uses a social networking logic due to the type of communication employed by the agents and it intends to support the ubiquitous group decision-making process in a similar way to the real process, which simultaneously preserves the amount and quality of intelligence generated in face-to-face meetings. We propose a new look into this problem by considering and defining strategies to deal with important points such as the type of attributes in the multi- criterion problems, agents’ reasoning, and intelligent dialogues.

  20. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  1. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  2. Radiative Type III Seesaw Model and its collider phenomenology

    CERN Document Server

    von der Pahlen, Federico; Restrepo, Diego; Zapata, Oscar

    2016-01-01

    We analyze the present bounds of a scotogenic model, the Radiative Type III Seesaw (RSIII), in which an additional scalar doublet and at least two fermion triplets of $SU(2)_L$ are added to the Standard Model (SM). In the RSIII the new physics (NP) sector is odd under an exact global $Z_2$ symmetry. This symmetry guaranties that the lightest NP neutral particle is stable, providing a natural dark matter (DM) candidate, and leads to naturally suppressed neutrino masses generated by a one-loop realization of an effective Weinberg operator. We focus on the region with the highest sensitivity in present and future LHC searches, with light scalar DM and at least one NP fermion triplet at the sub-TeV scale. This region allows for significant production cross-sections of NP fermion pairs at the LHC. We reinterpret a set of searches for supersymmetric particles at the LHC obtained using the package CheckMATE, to set limits on our model as a function of the masses of the NP particles and their Yukawa interactions. The...

  3. A Mining Algorithm for Extracting Decision Process Data Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces an algorithm that mines logs of user interaction with simulation software. It outputs a model that explicitly shows the data perspective of the decision process, namely the Decision Data Model (DDM. In the first part of the paper we focus on how the DDM is extracted by our mining algorithm. We introduce it as pseudo-code and, then, provide explanations and examples of how it actually works. In the second part of the paper, we use a series of small case studies to prove the robustness of the mining algorithm and how it deals with the most common patterns we found in real logs.

  4. A new decision support model for preanesthetic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobrie, Olivier; Lazouni, Mohammed El Amine; Mahmoudi, Saïd; Mousseau, Vincent; Pirlot, Marc

    2016-09-01

    The principal challenges in the field of anesthesia and intensive care consist of reducing both anesthetic risks and mortality rate. The ASA score plays an important role in patients' preanesthetic evaluation. In this paper, we propose a methodology to derive simple rules which classify patients in a category of the ASA scale on the basis of their medical characteristics. This diagnosis system is based on MR-Sort, a multiple criteria decision analysis model. The proposed method intends to support two steps in this process. The first is the assignment of an ASA score to the patient; the second concerns the decision to accept-or not-the patient for surgery. In order to learn the model parameters and assess its effectiveness, we use a database containing the parameters of 898 patients who underwent preanesthesia evaluation. The accuracy of the learned models for predicting the ASA score and the decision of accepting the patient for surgery is assessed and proves to be better than that of other machine learning methods. Furthermore, simple decision rules can be explicitly derived from the learned model. These are easily interpretable by doctors, and their consistency with medical knowledge can be checked. The proposed model for assessing the ASA score produces accurate predictions on the basis of the (limited) set of patient attributes in the database available for the tests. Moreover, the learned MR-Sort model allows for easy interpretation by providing human-readable classification rules. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Weighted Hybrid Decision Tree Model for Random Forest Classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Vrushali Y.; Sinha, Pradeep K.; Petare, Manisha C.

    2016-06-01

    Random Forest is an ensemble, supervised machine learning algorithm. An ensemble generates many classifiers and combines their results by majority voting. Random forest uses decision tree as base classifier. In decision tree induction, an attribute split/evaluation measure is used to decide the best split at each node of the decision tree. The generalization error of a forest of tree classifiers depends on the strength of the individual trees in the forest and the correlation among them. The work presented in this paper is related to attribute split measures and is a two step process: first theoretical study of the five selected split measures is done and a comparison matrix is generated to understand pros and cons of each measure. These theoretical results are verified by performing empirical analysis. For empirical analysis, random forest is generated using each of the five selected split measures, chosen one at a time. i.e. random forest using information gain, random forest using gain ratio, etc. The next step is, based on this theoretical and empirical analysis, a new approach of hybrid decision tree model for random forest classifier is proposed. In this model, individual decision tree in Random Forest is generated using different split measures. This model is augmented by weighted voting based on the strength of individual tree. The new approach has shown notable increase in the accuracy of random forest.

  6. Modeling population dynamics, landscape structure, and management decisions for controlling the spread of invasive plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplat, Paul; Coutts, Shaun; Buckley, Yvonne M

    2012-02-01

    Invasive plants cause substantial economic and environmental damage throughout the world. However, eradication of most invasive species is impossible and, in some cases, undesirable. An alternative is to slow the spread of an invasive species, which can delay impacts or reduce their extent. We identify three main areas where models are used extensively in the study of plant spread and its management: (i) identifying the key drivers of spread to better target management, (ii) determining the role spatial structure of landscapes plays in plant invasions, and (iii) integrating management structures and limitations to guide the implementation of control measures. We show how these three components have been approached in the ecological literature as well as their potential for improving management practices. Particularly, we argue that scientists can help managers of invasive species by providing information about plant invasion on which managers can base their decisions (i and ii) and by modeling the decision process through optimization and agent-based models (iii). Finally, we show how these approaches can be articulated for integrative studies. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

  7. Integrated Environmental Modelling: human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  8. Assessment of Groundwater Potential Based on Multicriteria Decision Making Model and Decision Tree Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huajie Duan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater plays an important role in global climate change and satisfying human needs. In the study, RS (remote sensing and GIS (geographic information system were utilized to generate five thematic layers, lithology, lineament density, topology, slope, and river density considered as factors influencing the groundwater potential. Then, the multicriteria decision model (MCDM was integrated with C5.0 and CART, respectively, to generate the decision tree with 80 surveyed tube wells divided into four classes on the basis of the yield. To test the precision of the decision tree algorithms, the 10-fold cross validation and kappa coefficient were adopted and the average kappa coefficient for C5.0 and CART was 90.45% and 85.09%, respectively. After applying the decision tree to the whole study area, four classes of groundwater potential zones were demarcated. According to the classification result, the four grades of groundwater potential zones, “very good,” “good,” “moderate,” and “poor,” occupy 4.61%, 8.58%, 26.59%, and 60.23%, respectively, with C5.0 algorithm, while occupying the percentages of 4.68%, 10.09%, 26.10%, and 59.13%, respectively, with CART algorithm. Therefore, we can draw the conclusion that C5.0 algorithm is more appropriate than CART for the groundwater potential zone prediction.

  9. The decision book fifty models for strategic thinking

    CERN Document Server

    Krogerus, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? And how can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? A worldwide bestseller, The Decision Book distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses and elsewhere that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you will have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little black book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.

  10. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  11. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Bostenaru Dan

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  12. Photoionization Models for the Semi-Forbidden C III] 1909 Emission in Star-Forming Galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Jaskot, Anne

    2016-01-01

    The increasing neutrality of the intergalactic medium at z>6 suppresses Ly-alpha emission, and spectroscopic confirmation of galaxy redshifts requires detecting alternative UV lines. The strong [C III] 1907 + C III] 1909 doublet frequently observed in low-metallicity, actively star-forming galaxies is a promising emission feature. We present CLOUDY photoionization model predictions for C III] equivalent widths (EWs) and line ratios as a function of starburst age, metallicity, and ionization parameter. Our models include a range of C/O abundances, dust content, and gas density. We also examine the effects of varying the nebular geometry and optical depth. Only the stellar models that incorporate binary interaction effects reproduce the highest observed C III] EWs. The spectral energy distributions from the binary stellar population models also generate observable C III] over a longer timescale relative to single-star models. We show that diagnostics using C III] and nebular He II 1640 can separate star-forming...

  13. Emulation Modeling with Bayesian Networks for Efficient Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, M. N.; Masterson, J.; Plant, N. G.; Gutierrez, B. T.; Thieler, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    Bayesian decision networks (BDN) have long been used to provide decision support in systems that require explicit consideration of uncertainty; applications range from ecology to medical diagnostics and terrorism threat assessments. Until recently, however, few studies have applied BDNs to the study of groundwater systems. BDNs are particularly useful for representing real-world system variability by synthesizing a range of hydrogeologic situations within a single simulation. Because BDN output is cast in terms of probability—an output desired by decision makers—they explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of a system. BDNs can thus serve as a more efficient alternative to other uncertainty characterization methods such as computationally demanding Monte Carlo analyses and others methods restricted to linear model analyses. We present a unique application of a BDN to a groundwater modeling analysis of the hydrologic response of Assateague Island, Maryland to sea-level rise. Using both input and output variables of the modeled groundwater response to different sea-level (SLR) rise scenarios, the BDN predicts the probability of changes in the depth to fresh water, which exerts an important influence on physical and biological island evolution. Input variables included barrier-island width, maximum island elevation, and aquifer recharge. The variability of these inputs and their corresponding outputs are sampled along cross sections in a single model run to form an ensemble of input/output pairs. The BDN outputs, which are the posterior distributions of water table conditions for the sea-level rise scenarios, are evaluated through error analysis and cross-validation to assess both fit to training data and predictive power. The key benefit for using BDNs in groundwater modeling analyses is that they provide a method for distilling complex model results into predictions with associated uncertainty, which is useful to decision makers. Future efforts incorporate

  14. Modelling Human Emotions for Tactical Decision-Making Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschedijk, Gillian C.; Lazonder, Ard W.; van der Hulst, Anja; Vink, Nathalie; Leemkuil, Henny

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studies were performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characters. Study 1 compared five versions of a virtual…

  15. A Decision-Making Model Applied to Career Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Christine; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A four-component model for career decision-making counseling relates each component to assessment questions and appropriate intervention strategies. The components are (1) conceptualization (definition of the problem); (2) enlargement of response repertoire (generation of alternatives); (3) identification of discriminative stimuli (consequences of…

  16. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by fi

  17. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characte

  18. Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

  19. Shared decision making: a model for clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Thomson, R.; Joseph-Williams, N.; Lloyd, A.; Kinnersley, P.; Cording, E.; Tomson, D.; Dodd, C.; Rollnick, S.; Edwards, A.; Barry, M.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of shared decision making are well documented but there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish the approach in routine clinical practice. Our aim here is to translate existing conceptual descriptions into a three-step model that is practical, easy to remember, and can act as a

  20. Modelling human emotions for tactical decision-making games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visschedijk, G.C.; Lazonder, A.W.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Vink, N.; Leemkuil, H.

    2013-01-01

    The training of tactical decision making increasingly occurs through serious computer games. A challenging aspect of designing such games is the modelling of human emotions. Two studieswere performed to investigate the relation between fidelity and human emotion recognition in virtual human characte

  1. Shared decision making: a model for clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Frosch, D.; Thomson, R.; Joseph-Williams, N.; Lloyd, A.; Kinnersley, P.; Cording, E.; Tomson, D.; Dodd, C.; Rollnick, S.; Edwards, A.; Barry, M.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of shared decision making are well documented but there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish the approach in routine clinical practice. Our aim here is to translate existing conceptual descriptions into a three-step model that is practical, easy to remember, and can act as a

  2. The Integrated Decision Modeling System (IDMS) User’s Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-05-01

    AL-TP-1 991-0009 AD-A23 6 033 THE INTEGRATED DECISION MODELING SYSTEM (IDMS) USER’S MANUAL IJonathan C. Fast John N. Taylor Metrica , Incorporated...Looper 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) . PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Metrica , Incorporated 8301 Broadway, Suite 215 San

  3. HYDRA: a decision support model for irrigation water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacucci, G.; Kabat, P.; Verrier, P.J.; Teixeira, J.L.; Steduto, P.; Bertanzon, G.; Giannerini, G.; Huygen, J.; Fernando, R.M.; Hooijer, A.A.; Simons, W.; Toller, G.; Tziallas, G.; Uhrik, C.; Broek, van den B.J.; Vera Munoz, J.; Yovchev, P.

    1995-01-01

    HYDRA introduces information modelling and decision-support systems (DSS) to farmers and authorities in European Mediterranean agriculture in order to improve irrigation practices at different levels. Key components of HYDRA-DSS are a hierarchical setof water balance and crop growth simulation

  4. Managing health care decisions and improvement through simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Helena Hvitfeldt; Aronsson, Håkan; Keller, Christina; Lindblad, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Simulation modeling is a way to test changes in a computerized environment to give ideas for improvements before implementation. This article reviews research literature on simulation modeling as support for health care decision making. The aim is to investigate the experience and potential value of such decision support and quality of articles retrieved. A literature search was conducted, and the selection criteria yielded 59 articles derived from diverse applications and methods. Most met the stated research-quality criteria. This review identified how simulation can facilitate decision making and that it may induce learning. Furthermore, simulation offers immediate feedback about proposed changes, allows analysis of scenarios, and promotes communication on building a shared system view and understanding of how a complex system works. However, only 14 of the 59 articles reported on implementation experiences, including how decision making was supported. On the basis of these articles, we proposed steps essential for the success of simulation projects, not just in the computer, but also in clinical reality. We also presented a novel concept combining simulation modeling with the established plan-do-study-act cycle for improvement. Future scientific inquiries concerning implementation, impact, and the value for health care management are needed to realize the full potential of simulation modeling.

  5. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions.

  6. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    , decision makers exhibit overlap in their views of what drives their business. The pork chain appears dominated by a focus on efficiency, technology, and quality control, though it also acknowledges communication as important. The salmon chain places more emphasis on new product development and good......Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains......: Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains...

  7. Decision Tree Model for Non-Fatal Road Accident Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatin Ellisya Sapri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Non-fatal road accident injury has become a great concern as it is associated with injury and sometimes leads to the disability of the victims. Hence, this study aims to develop a model that explains the factors that contribute to non-fatal road accident injury severity. A sample data of 350 non-fatal road accident cases of the year 2016 were obtained from Kota Bharu District Police Headquarters, Kelantan. The explanatory variables include road geometry, collision type, accident time, accident causes, vehicle type, age, airbag, and gender. The predictive data mining techniques of decision tree model and multinomial logistic regression were used to model non-fatal road accident injury severity. Based on accuracy rate, decision tree with CART algorithm was found to be more accurate as compared to the logistic regression model. The factors that significantly contribute to non-fatal traffic crashes injury severity are accident cause, road geometry, vehicle type, age and collision type.

  8. An Integrated Decision Making Model for Evaluation of Concept Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Green

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The Conceptual design phase generates various design concepts and these are then evaluated in order to identify the 'Best’ concept. Identifying the Best concept is important because much of the product life cycle cost is decided in this phase. Various evaluation techniques are performed so as to aid decision-making. Different criteria are weighted against concepts for the comparison. This paper describes the research being carried out at the University of Glasgow on design evaluation. It presents the Application of fuzzy logic for design evaluation and proposes an integrated decision-making model for design evaluation. This is a part of research project that aims at developing a computer tool for evaluation process to aid decision-making.

  9. Cognitive modeling and multi criteria decision making in macroeconomic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonova Nina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in macroeconomics belongs to the class of ill-structured tasks with strong external factors interdependence, a limited number of management tools and experts groups' subjectivity. This paper suggests a technique of macroeconomic analysis which includes methods of cognitive modeling for formalizing a problem situation and scenario generation as a basis of the typical multicriteria decision making task. In turn, for solving this task is suggested a method based on measuring the distance to the 'ideal' solution with determining importance of criteria by finding objective, common component of all values measured by experts groups. For extracting this 'commonality' means of factor analysis are used. Such an approach allows separating of the objective part in experts' value from a subjective one, while the technique at whole provides formalization of macroeconomic problems and substantiation of decision-making in macroeconomics.

  10. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  11. Cost modelling as decision support when locating manufacturing facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Windmark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for cost estimation in developing decision supports for production location issues. The purpose is to provide a structured work procedure to be used by practitioners to derive the knowledge needed to make informed decisions on where to locate production. This paper present a special focus on how to integrate cost effects during the decision process. The work procedure and cost models were developed in close collaboration with a group of industrial partners. The result is a structure of cost estimation tools aligned to different steps in the work procedure. The cost models can facilitate both cost estimation for manufacturing a product under new preconditions, including support costs, and cost simulations to analyse the risks of wrong estimations and uncertainties in the input parameters. Future research aims to test the methodology in ongoing transfer projects to further understand difficulties in managing global production systems. In existing models and methods presented in the literature, cost is usually estimated on a too aggregated level to be suitable for decision support regarding production system design. The cost estimation methodology presented here provides new insights on cost driving factors related to the production system.

  12. An Integrated Model for Optimization Oriented Decision Aiding and Rule Based Decision Making in Fuzzy Environment

    OpenAIRE

    A. Yousefli; M. Ghazanfari; M. B. Abiri

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a fuzzy decision aid system is developed base on new concepts that presented in the field of fuzzy decision making in fuzzy environment (FDMFE). This framework aids decision makers to understand different circumstances of an uncertain problem that may occur in the future. Also, to keep decision maker from the optimization problem complexities, a decision support system, which can be replaced by optimization problem, is presented to make optimum or near optimum decisions without ...

  13. Acid deposition: decision framework. Volume 1. Description of conceptual framework and decision-tree models. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balson, W.E.; Boyd, D.W.; North, D.W.

    1982-08-01

    Acid precipitation and dry deposition of acid materials have emerged as an important environmental issue affecting the electric utility industry. This report presents a framework for the analysis of decisions on acid deposition. The decision framework is intended as a means of summarizing scientific information and uncertainties on the relation between emissions from electric utilities and other sources, acid deposition, and impacts on ecological systems. The methodology for implementing the framework is that of decision analysis, which provides a quantitative means of analyzing decisions under uncertainty. The decisions of interest include reductions in sulfur oxide and other emissions thought to be precursors of acid deposition, mitigation of acid deposition impacts through means such as liming of waterways and soils, and choice of strategies for research. The report first gives an overview of the decision framework and explains the decision analysis methods with a simplified caricature example. The state of scientific information and the modeling assumptions for the framework are then discussed for the three main modules of the framework: emissions and control technologies; long-range transport and chemical conversion in the atmosphere; and ecological impacts. The report then presents two versions of a decision tree model that implements the decision framework. The basic decision tree addresses decisions on emissions control and mitigation in the immediate future and a decade hence, and it includes uncertainties in the long-range transport and ecological impacts. The research emphasis decision tree addresses the effect of research funding on obtaining new information as the basis for future decisions. Illustrative data and calculations using the decision tree models are presented.

  14. Reduction of Fe(III) colloids by Shewanella putrefaciens: A kinetic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneville, Steeve; Behrends, Thilo; van Cappellen, Philippe; Hyacinthe, Christelle; Röling, Wilfred F. M.

    2006-12-01

    A kinetic model for the microbial reduction of Fe(III) oxyhydroxide colloids in the presence of excess electron donor is presented. The model assumes a two-step mechanism: (1) attachment of Fe(III) colloids to the cell surface and (2) reduction of Fe(III) centers at the surface of attached colloids. The validity of the model is tested using Shewanella putrefaciens and nanohematite as model dissimilatory iron reducing bacteria and Fe(III) colloidal particles, respectively. Attachment of nanohematite to the bacteria is formally described by a Langmuir isotherm. Initial iron reduction rates are shown to correlate linearly with the relative coverage of the cell surface by nanohematite particles, hence supporting a direct electron transfer from membrane-bound reductases to mineral particles attached to the cells. Using internally consistent parameter values for the maximum attachment capacity of Fe(III) colloids to the cells, Mmax, the attachment constant, KP, and the first-order Fe(III) reduction rate constant, k, the model reproduces the initial reduction rates of a variety of fine-grained Fe(III) oxyhydroxides by S. putrefaciens. The model explains the observed dependency of the apparent Fe(III) half-saturation constant, Km∗, on the solid to cell ratio, and it predicts that initial iron reduction rates exhibit saturation with respect to both the cell density and the abundance of the Fe(III) oxyhydroxide substrate.

  15. Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-06

    The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define each of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.

  16. Markov decision processes and the belief-desire-intention model

    CERN Document Server

    Simari, Gerardo I

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we provide a treatment of the relationship between two models that have been widely used in the implementation of autonomous agents: the Belief DesireIntention (BDI) model and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We start with an informal description of the relationship, identifying the common features of the two approaches and the differences between them. Then we hone our understanding of these differences through an empirical analysis of the performance of both models on the TileWorld testbed. This allows us to show that even though the MDP model displays consistently better beha

  17. Neuro-Based Artificial Intelligence Model for Loan Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shorouq F. Eletter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Despite the increase in consumer loans defaults and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use artificial intelligence software systems for supporting loan decisions. Approach: This study developed a proposed model that identifies artificial neural network as an enabling tool for evaluating credit applications to support loan decisions in the Jordanian Commercial banks. A multi-layer feed-forward neural network with backpropagation learning algorithm was used to build up the proposed model. Results: Different representative cases of loan applications were considered based on the guidelines of different banks in Jordan, to validate the neural network model. Conclusion: The results indicated that artificial neural networks are a successful technology that can be used in loan application evaluation in the Jordanian commercial banks.

  18. Dynamic Decision Making for Graphical Models Applied to Oil Exploration

    CERN Document Server

    Martinelli, Gabriele; Hauge, Ragnar

    2012-01-01

    We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.

  19. Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2017-07-01

    Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

  20. Perbedaan Perubahan Dimensi pada Gipsum Tipe III Komersial Dengan Gipsum Tipe III Daur Ulang Sebagai Bahan Model Kerja Gigitiruan

    OpenAIRE

    Hutasoit, Sri Dewi

    2014-01-01

    Gipsum dalam kedokteran gigi dapat diklasifikasikan menjadi lima tipe sesuai dengan spesifikasi ADA (American Dental Association) No. 25 yaitu tipe I Impression Plaster, tipe II Model Plaster, tipe III Dental Stone, tipe IV Die Stone: High Strength, dan tipe V Die Stone: High Strength, High Expansion.6,7 Pada dasarnya semua jenis gipsum yang digunakan memiliki senyawa dasar yang sama yaitu kalsium sulfat hemihidrat (CaSO4.½ H2O) yang membedakannya adalah metode yang dilakuka...

  1. Limitations of multimedia models for use in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, C C; Obenshain, K R; Regens, J L; Whipple, C G

    2001-09-01

    The United States currently is engaged in a complex, multi-billion dollar effort to cleanup a legacy of both privately- and federally-owned hazardous waste sites. Decisions regarding the best approach for remediation of these sites often are based on the analysis of potential risks to human health and the environment. A cornerstone of such analysis is the frequent use of computerized multimedia environmental transport models, to evaluate the large quantities of information necessary to understand the present and future implications of contamination at a site. One barrier to wide-spread use of this analytical procedure is the view that results obtained using computer models are highly dependent on user input, and therefore, subject to manipulation. It is widely recognized that for decisions to be both credible and implementable, the public must have confidence in both the scientific basis for judgments involved and the decision processes employed (NRC, 1983). Our purpose in this article is to overview the difficulties associated with application of multimedia models to real world problems and the contribution these models can make to technically sound estimates of exposure and risk.

  2. Aggregation of Environmental Model Data for Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    Weather forecasts and warnings must be prepared and then delivered so as to reach their intended audience in good time to enable effective decision-making. An effort to mitigate these difficulties was studied at a Workshop, 'Sustaining National Meteorological Services - Strengthening WMO Regional and Global Centers' convened, June , 2013, by the World Bank, WMO and the US National Weather Service (NWS). The skill and accuracy of atmospheric forecasts from deterministic models have increased and there are now ensembles of such models that improve decisions to protect life, property and commerce. The NWS production of numerical weather prediction products result in model output from global and high resolution regional ensemble forecasts. Ensembles are constructed by changing the initial conditions to make a 'cloud' of forecasts that attempt to span the space of possible atmospheric realizations which can quantify not only the most likely forecast, but also the uncertainty. This has led to an unprecedented increase in data production and information content from higher resolution, multi-model output and secondary calculations. One difficulty is to obtain the needed subset of data required to estimate the probability of events, and report the information. The calibration required to reliably estimate the probability of events, and honing of threshold adjustments to reduce false alarms for decision makers is also needed. To meet the future needs of the ever-broadening user community and address these issues on a national and international basis, the weather service implemented the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS provides real-time and retrospective format independent access to climate, ocean and weather model data and delivers high availability content services as part of NOAA's official real time data dissemination at its new NCWCP web operations center. An important aspect of the server's abilities is to aggregate the matrix of

  3. Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2010-01-01

    A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation

  4. The Cognitive Complexity in Modelling the Group Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barna Iantovics

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates for some basic contextual factors (such
    us the problem complexity, the users' creativity and the problem space complexity the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the group decision processes (GDP in e-meetings. The analysis is done by conducting a socio-simulation experiment for an envisioned collaborative software tool that acts as a stigmergic environment for modelling the GDP. The simulation results revels some interesting design guidelines for engineering some contextual functionalities that minimize the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the GDP.

  5. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  6. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  7. A Soft Computing Model for Physicians' Decision Process

    CERN Document Server

    Biswas, Siddharths Sankar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the author presents a kind of Soft Computing Technique, mainly an application of fuzzy set theory of Prof. Zadeh [16], on a problem of Medical Experts Systems. The choosen problem is on design of a physician's decision model which can take crisp as well as fuzzy data as input, unlike the traditional models. The author presents a mathematical model based on fuzzy set theory for physician aided evaluation of a complete representation of information emanating from the initial interview including patient past history, present symptoms, and signs observed upon physical examination and results of clinical and diagnostic tests.

  8. Modeling and Testing Landslide Hazard Using Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutasem Sh. Alkhasawneh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a decision tree model for specifying the importance of 21 factors causing the landslides in a wide area of Penang Island, Malaysia. These factors are vegetation cover, distance from the fault line, slope angle, cross curvature, slope aspect, distance from road, geology, diagonal length, longitude curvature, rugosity, plan curvature, elevation, rain perception, soil texture, surface area, distance from drainage, roughness, land cover, general curvature, tangent curvature, and profile curvature. Decision tree models are used for prediction, classification, and factors importance and are usually represented by an easy to interpret tree like structure. Four models were created using Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, Classification and Regression Tree (CRT, and Quick-Unbiased-Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST. Twenty-one factors were extracted using digital elevation models (DEMs and then used as input variables for the models. A data set of 137570 samples was selected for each variable in the analysis, where 68786 samples represent landslides and 68786 samples represent no landslides. 10-fold cross-validation was employed for testing the models. The highest accuracy was achieved using Exhaustive CHAID (82.0% compared to CHAID (81.9%, CRT (75.6%, and QUEST (74.0% model. Across the four models, five factors were identified as most important factors which are slope angle, distance from drainage, surface area, slope aspect, and cross curvature.

  9. Model Checking with Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, Pierre; Siminiceanu, Radu I.

    2010-01-01

    We describe an algebra of Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams (EVMDDs) to encode arithmetic functions and its implementation in a model checking library. We provide efficient algorithms for manipulating EVMDDs and review the theoretical time complexity of these algorithms for all basic arithmetic and relational operators. We also demonstrate that the time complexity of the generic recursive algorithm for applying a binary operator on EVMDDs is no worse than that of Multi- Terminal Decision Diagrams. We have implemented a new symbolic model checker with the intention to represent in one formalism the best techniques available at the moment across a spectrum of existing tools. Compared to the CUDD package, our tool is several orders of magnitude faster

  10. USING THE SOFTWARE MICROSOFT OFFICE EXCEL FOR FINANCIAL MODELING DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bălăc escu Aniela

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The use of the software package is today indispensable for modeling of financial decisions. Business organizations will invariably make greater demands of the software than individual users. Excel is an option along with other software applications tailored to the market, and bespoke (in-house software packages. It should be noted that Excel is the leader in the market and as such does set a benchmark.

  11. Reverse engineering cellular decisions for hybrid reconfigurable network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Howard A.; Saranak, Jureepan; Foster, Kenneth W.

    2011-06-01

    Cells as microorganisms and within multicellular organisms make robust decisions. Knowing how these complex cells make decisions is essential to explain, predict or mimic their behavior. The discovery of multi-layer multiple feedback loops in the signaling pathways of these modular hybrid systems suggests their decision making is sophisticated. Hybrid systems coordinate and integrate signals of various kinds: discrete on/off signals, continuous sensory signals, and stochastic and continuous fluctuations to regulate chemical concentrations. Such signaling networks can form reconfigurable networks of attractors and repellors giving them an extra level of organization that has resilient decision making built in. Work on generic attractor and repellor networks and on the already identified feedback networks and dynamic reconfigurable regulatory topologies in biological cells suggests that biological systems probably exploit such dynamic capabilities. We present a simple behavior of the swimming unicellular alga Chlamydomonas that involves interdependent discrete and continuous signals in feedback loops. We show how to rigorously verify a hybrid dynamical model of a biological system with respect to a declarative description of a cell's behavior. The hybrid dynamical systems we use are based on a unification of discrete structures and continuous topologies developed in prior work on convergence spaces. They involve variables of discrete and continuous types, in the sense of type theory in mathematical logic. A unification such as afforded by convergence spaces is necessary if one wants to take account of the affect of the structural relationships within each type on the dynamics of the system.

  12. Modelling Framework to Support Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tariq Masood

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic model-driven decision-making is crucial to design, engineer, and transform manufacturing enterprises (MEs. Choosing and applying the best philosophies and techniques is challenging as most MEs deploy complex and unique configurations of process-resource systems and seek economies of scope and scale in respect of changing and distinctive product flows. This paper presents a novel systematic enhanced integrated modelling framework to facilitate transformation of MEs, which is centred on CIMOSA. Application of the new framework in an automotive industrial case study is also presented. The following new contributions to knowledge are made: (1 an innovative structured framework that can support various decisions in design, optimisation, and control to reconfigure MEs; (2 an enriched and generic process modelling approach with capability to represent both static and dynamic aspects of MEs; and (3 an automotive industrial case application showing benefits in terms of reduced lead time and cost with improved responsiveness of process-resource system with a special focus on PPC. It is anticipated that the new framework is not limited to only automotive industry but has a wider scope of application. Therefore, it would be interesting to extend its testing with different configurations and decision-making levels.

  13. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  14. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    : Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains......Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains...... in promoting the market orientation of value chains. Originality: This article offers three novel ideas: using the concept of mental models as a possible mediator between factors that influence the degree of market orientation and market-oriented activity; using a laddering method to elicit mental models...

  15. Markov chain decision model for urinary incontinence procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sameer; Ghildayal, Nidhi; Ghildayal, Neha

    2017-03-13

    Purpose Urinary incontinence (UI) is a common chronic health condition, a problem specifically among elderly women that impacts quality of life negatively. However, UI is usually viewed as likely result of old age, and as such is generally not evaluated or even managed appropriately. Many treatments are available to manage incontinence, such as bladder training and numerous surgical procedures such as Burch colposuspension and Sling for UI which have high success rates. The purpose of this paper is to analyze which of these popular surgical procedures for UI is effective. Design/methodology/approach This research employs randomized, prospective studies to obtain robust cost and utility data used in the Markov chain decision model for examining which of these surgical interventions is more effective in treating women with stress UI based on two measures: number of quality adjusted life years (QALY) and cost per QALY. Treeage Pro Healthcare software was employed in Markov decision analysis. Findings Results showed the Sling procedure is a more effective surgical intervention than the Burch. However, if a utility greater than certain utility value, for which both procedures are equally effective, is assigned to persistent incontinence, the Burch procedure is more effective than the Sling procedure. Originality/value This paper demonstrates the efficacy of a Markov chain decision modeling approach to study the comparative effectiveness analysis of available treatments for patients with UI, an important public health issue, widely prevalent among elderly women in developed and developing countries. This research also improves upon other analyses using a Markov chain decision modeling process to analyze various strategies for treating UI.

  16. LATEST: A model of saccadic decisions in space and time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatler, Benjamin W; Brockmole, James R; Carpenter, R H S

    2017-04-01

    Many of our actions require visual information, and for this it is important to direct the eyes to the right place at the right time. Two or three times every second, we must decide both when and where to direct our gaze. Understanding these decisions can reveal the moment-to-moment information priorities of the visual system and the strategies for information sampling employed by the brain to serve ongoing behavior. Most theoretical frameworks and models of gaze control assume that the spatial and temporal aspects of fixation point selection depend on different mechanisms. We present a single model that can simultaneously account for both when and where we look. Underpinning this model is the theoretical assertion that each decision to move the eyes is an evaluation of the relative benefit expected from moving the eyes to a new location compared with that expected by continuing to fixate the current target. The eyes move when the evidence that favors moving to a new location outweighs that favoring staying at the present location. Our model provides not only an account of when the eyes move, but also what will be fixated. That is, an analysis of saccade timing alone enables us to predict where people look in a scene. Indeed our model accounts for fixation selection as well as (and often better than) current computational models of fixation selection in scene viewing. (PsycINFO Database Record

  17. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  18. Data acquisition in modeling using neural networks and decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sika

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a comparison of selected models from area of artificial neural networks and decision trees in relation with actualconditions of foundry processes. The work contains short descriptions of used algorithms, their destination and method of data preparation,which is a domain of work of Data Mining systems. First part concerns data acquisition realized in selected iron foundry, indicating problems to solve in aspect of casting process modeling. Second part is a comparison of selected algorithms: a decision tree and artificial neural network, that is CART (Classification And Regression Trees and BP (Backpropagation in MLP (Multilayer Perceptron networks algorithms.Aim of the paper is to show an aspect of selecting data for modeling, cleaning it and reducing, for example due to too strong correlationbetween some of recorded process parameters. Also, it has been shown what results can be obtained using two different approaches:first when modeling using available commercial software, for example Statistica, second when modeling step by step using Excel spreadsheetbasing on the same algorithm, like BP-MLP. Discrepancy of results obtained from these two approaches originates from a priorimade assumptions. Mentioned earlier Statistica universal software package, when used without awareness of relations of technologicalparameters, i.e. without user having experience in foundry and without scheduling ranks of particular parameters basing on acquisition, can not give credible basis to predict the quality of the castings. Also, a decisive influence of data acquisition method has been clearly indicated, the acquisition should be conducted according to repetitive measurement and control procedures. This paper is based on about 250 records of actual data, for one assortment for 6 month period, where only 12 data sets were complete (including two that were used for validation of neural network and useful for creating a model. It is definitely too

  19. A Decision Model for Selecting Participants in Supply Chain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In order to satisfy the rapid changing requirements of customers, enterprises must cooperate with each other to form supply chain. The first and the most important stage in the forming of supply chain is the selection of participants. The article proposes a two-staged decision model to select partners. The first stage is the inter company comparison in each business process to select highefficiency candidate based on inside variables. The next stage is to analyse the combination of different candidates in order to select the most perfect partners according to a goal-programming model.

  20. Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulga, M. K.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

  1. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player...... to or divergence from these. Essentially, at each step the action of the human is compared to what actions a number of reinforcement-learned agents would have taken in the same situation, where each agent is trained using a different reward scheme. Finally, extensions are outlined for adapting the agents...

  2. National Utility Financial Statement model (NUFS). Volume III of III: software description. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-10-29

    This volume contains a description of the software comprising the National Utility Financial Statement Model (NUFS). This is the third of three volumes describing NUFS provided by ICF Incorporated under contract DEAC-01-79EI-10579. The three volumes are entitled: model overview and description, user's guide, and software guide.

  3. Correleation of the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Models in Thermal Desktop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundsen, Ruth M.; Davis, Warren T.; Liles, Kaitlin, A. K.; McLeod, Shawn C.

    2017-01-01

    The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III was launched on February 19, 2017 and mounted to the International Space Station (ISS) to begin its three-year mission. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Correlation of the thermal model is important since the payload will be expected to survive a three-year mission on ISS under varying thermal environments. Three major thermal vacuum (TVAC) tests were completed during the development of the SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP); two subsystem-level tests and a payload-level test. Additionally, a characterization TVAC test was performed in order to verify performance of a system of heater plates that was designed to allow the IP to achieve the required temperatures during payload-level testing; model correlation was performed for this test configuration as well as those including the SAGE III flight hardware. This document presents the methods that were used to correlate the SAGE III models to TVAC at the subsystem and IP level, including the approach for modeling the parts of the payload in the thermal chamber, generating pre-test predictions, and making adjustments to the model to align predictions with temperatures observed during testing. Model correlation quality will be presented and discussed, and lessons learned during the correlation process will be shared.

  4. Wind waves modelling on the water body with coupled WRF and WAVEWATCH III models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Alexandra; Troitskaya, Yuliya; Kandaurov, Alexander; Baydakov, Georgy; Vdovin, Maxim; Papko, Vladislav; Sergeev, Daniil

    2015-04-01

    Simulation of ocean and sea waves is an accepted instrument for the improvement of the weather forecasts. Wave modelling, coupled models modelling is applied to open seas [1] and is less developed for moderate and small inland water reservoirs and lakes, though being of considerable interest for inland navigation. Our goal is to tune the WAVEWATCH III model to the conditions of the inland reservoir and to carry out the simulations of surface wind waves with coupled WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and WAVEWATCH III models. Gorky Reservoir, an artificial lake in the central part of the Volga River formed by a hydroelectric dam, was considered as an example of inland reservoir. Comparing to [2] where moderate constant winds (u10 is up to 9 m/s) of different directions blowing steadily all over the surface of the reservoir were considered, here we apply atmospheric model WRF to get wind input to WAVEWATCH III. WRF computations were held on the Yellowstone supercomputer for 4 nested domains with minimum scale of 1 km. WAVEWATCH III model was tuned for the conditions of the Gorky Reservoir. Satellite topographic data on altitudes ranged from 56,6° N to 57,5° N and from 42.9° E to 43.5° E with increments 0,00833 ° in both directions was used. 31 frequencies ranged from 0,2 Hz to 4 Hz and 30 directions were considered. The minimal significant wave height was changed to the lower one. The waves in the model were developing from some initial seeding spectral distribution (Gaussian in frequency and space, cosine in direction). The range of the observed significant wave height in the numerical experiment was from less than 1 cm up to 30 cm. The field experiments were carried out in the south part of the Gorky reservoir from the boat [2, 3]. 1-D spectra of the field experiment were compared with those obtained in the numerical experiments with different parameterizations of flux provided in WAVEWATCH III both with constant wind input and WRF wind input. For all the

  5. Modeling rare earth complexes: Sparkle/AM1 parameters for thulium (III)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Ricardo O.; Rocha, Gerd B.; Simas, Alfredo M.

    2005-08-01

    The Sparkle/AM1 model, recently defined for Eu(III), Gd(III) and Tb(III) [R.O. Freire, G.B. Rocha, A.M., Simas, Inorg. Chem. 44 (2005) 3299], is extended to Tm(III). A set of 15 structures of high crystallographic quality from the Cambridge Crystallographic Database, with ligands chosen to be representative of all complexes with nitrogen or oxygen directly bonded to the Tm(III) ion, was used as a training set. For the 15 complexes, the Sparkle/AM1 unsigned mean error, for all interatomic distances between the Tm(III) ion and the oxygen or nitrogen ligand atoms of the first sphere of coordination, is 0.07 Å, a level of accuracy useful for luminescent complex design.

  6. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2006-11-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

  7. Pavement maintenance optimization model using Markov Decision Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandiartha, P.; Duffield, C. F.; Razelan, I. S. b. M.; Ismail, A. b. H.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an optimization model for selection of pavement maintenance intervention using a theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). There are some particular characteristics of the MDP developed in this paper which distinguish it from other similar studies or optimization models intended for pavement maintenance policy development. These unique characteristics include a direct inclusion of constraints into the formulation of MDP, the use of an average cost method of MDP, and the policy development process based on the dual linear programming solution. The limited information or discussions that are available on these matters in terms of stochastic based optimization model in road network management motivates this study. This paper uses a data set acquired from road authorities of state of Victoria, Australia, to test the model and recommends steps in the computation of MDP based stochastic optimization model, leading to the development of optimum pavement maintenance policy.

  8. The Dutch model for legalizing end-of-life decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kater, Loes

    2003-01-01

    The Dutch experience with euthanasia is used as a model for other countries for regulating end-of-life decisions. Several elements of the Dutch debate, for example the definition of euthanasia, are copied and imported to other debates. This paper studies the specific Dutch construction of regulating euthanasia and the concept of the requirements of prudent practice. The requirements of prudent practice embody the conditions for careful medical management in end-of-life decisions. It is argued that the requirements of prudent practice are a relatively acceptable way of regulating the Dutch practice of euthanasia as they are embedded in an elaborate network of relations, standards and values. As a consequence of this local character and the way the requirements of prudent practice relate to the Dutch practice of euthanasia it is difficult to simply transport them to other countries in order to regulate euthanasia.

  9. The Controlling Model as Management Support in Decision- Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berislav Bolfek

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available business system to operate successfully and make profit, which represents the success criterion for each business system on the market. For managing the business result, the management of business systems needs different types of information on which numerous managerial decisions are based. That is why it is necessary to develop and set a Business System Controlling Model which would have the capability to transform available data into the information necessary for managerial decision-making. The above-mentioned model is prepared in such a way that the whole process of the transformation of the data into required information is carried out in two interconnected steps which have to be made in every single case and situation. However, there are a certain number of different activities within each step which do not have to be performed in every case. The forecast presented in the form of the Profit Forecast Procedure and the Liquidity Forecast Procedure represents the essence of the Business System Controlling Model. The Business System Controlling Model developed and set out in this paper should enable the business system management to evaluate future business activities, in addition to monitoring the past and present business activities. It is precisely the evaluation of the future business activities that, in today’s conditions of greater market globalization and internationalization, should help the business system management to control the business result in a better and easier way. In this way, the Business System Controlling Model represents a new tool in the sense of management support in making various business decisions.

  10. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  11. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  12. Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl;

    2015-01-01

    rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...

  13. Theoretical models of ferromagnetic III-V semiconductors

    OpenAIRE

    Jungwirth, T.; Sinova, Jairo; Kučera, J.; MacDonald, A. H.

    2002-01-01

    Recent materials research has advanced the maximum ferromagnetic transition temperature in semiconductors containing magnetic elements toward room temperature. Reaching this goal would make information technology applications of these materials likely. In this article we briefly review the status of work over the past five years which has attempted to achieve a theoretical understanding of these complex magnetic systems. The basic microscopic origins of ferromagnetism in the (III,Mn)V compoun...

  14. Expanding business-to-business customer relationships : modeling the customer's upgrade decision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolton, R.; Lemon, K.N.; Verhoef, P.C.

    2008-01-01

    This article develops a model of a business customer's decision to upgrade service contracts conditional on the decision to renew the contract. It proposes that the firm's upgrade decision is influenced by (1) decision-maker perceptions of the relationship with the supplier, (2) contract-level exper

  15. Expanding business-to-business customer relationships : modeling the customer's upgrade decision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolton, R.; Lemon, K.N.; Verhoef, P.C.

    This article develops a model of a business customer's decision to upgrade service contracts conditional on the decision to renew the contract. It proposes that the firm's upgrade decision is influenced by (1) decision-maker perceptions of the relationship with the supplier, (2) contract-level

  16. Exploring the experiences of client involvement in medication decisions using a shared decision making model: results of a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goscha, Richard; Rapp, Charles

    2015-04-01

    This qualitative study explored a newly introduced model of shared decision making (CommonGround) and how psychiatric medications were experienced by clients, prescribers, case managers and peer support staff. Of the twelve client subjects, six were highly engaged in shared decision-making and six were not. Five notable differences were found between the two groups including the presence of a goal, use of personal medicine, and the behavior of case managers and prescribers. Implications for a shared decision making model in psychiatry are discussed.

  17. A value model for evaluating homeland security decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Ralph L; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

    2011-09-01

    One of the most challenging tasks of homeland security policymakers is to allocate their limited resources to reduce terrorism risks cost effectively. To accomplish this task, it is useful to develop a comprehensive set of homeland security objectives, metrics to measure each objective, a utility function, and value tradeoffs relevant for making homeland security investments. Together, these elements form a homeland security value model. This article develops a homeland security value model based on literature reviews, a survey, and experience with building value models. The purposes of the article are to motivate the use of a value model for homeland security decision making and to illustrate its use to assess terrorism risks, assess the benefits of countermeasures, and develop a severity index for terrorism attacks. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Knowledge model-based decision support system for maize management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Yinqiao; ZHAO Chuande; WANG Wenxin; LI Cundong

    2007-01-01

    Based on the relationship between crops and circumstances,a dynamic knowledge model for maize management with wide applicability was developed using the system method and mathematical modeling technique.With soft component characteristics incorporated,a component and digital knowledge model-based decision support system for maize management was established on the Visual C++platform.This system realized six major functions:target yield calculation,design of pre-sowing plan,prediction of regular indices,real-time management control,expert knowledge reference and system administration.Cases were studied on the target yield knowledge model with data sets that include different eco-sites,yield levels of the last three years,and fertilizer and water management levels.The results indicated that this system overcomes the shortcomings of traditional expert systems and planting patterns,such as sitespecific conditions and narrow applicability,and can be used more under different conditions and environments.This system provides a scientific knowledge system and a broad decision-making tool for maize management.

  19. A National Modeling Framework for Water Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bales, J. D.; Cline, D. W.; Pietrowsky, R.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), all Federal agencies with complementary water-resources activities, entered into an Interagency Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) "Collaborative Science Services and Tools to Support Integrated and Adaptive Water Resources Management" to collaborate in activities that are supportive to their respective missions. One of the interagency activities is the development of a highly integrated national water modeling framework and information services framework. Together these frameworks establish a common operating picture, improve modeling and synthesis, support the sharing of data and products among agencies, and provide a platform for incorporation of new scientific understanding. Each of the agencies has existing operational systems to assist in carrying out their respective missions. The systems generally are designed, developed, tested, fielded, and supported by specialized teams. A broader, shared approach is envisioned and would include community modeling, wherein multiple independent investigators or teams develop and contribute new modeling capabilities based on science advances; modern technology in coupling model components and visualizing results; and a coupled atmospheric - hydrologic model construct such that the framework could be used in real-time water-resources decision making or for long-term management decisions. The framework also is being developed to account for organizational structures of the three partners such that, for example, national data sets can move down to the regional scale, and vice versa. We envision the national water modeling framework to be an important element of North American Water Program, to contribute to goals of the Program, and to be informed by the science and approaches developed as a part of the Program.

  20. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni [Istituto di Econometria e CRANEC, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: giovanni.marseguerra@unicatt.it; Cortelezzi, Flavia [Dipartimento di Diritto ed Economia delle Persone e delle Imprese, Universita dell' Insubria (Italy)]. E-mail: flavia.cortelezzi@uninsubria.it; Dominioni, Armando [CORE-Catholique de Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)]. E-mail: dominioni@core.ucl.ac.be

    2006-08-15

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost.

  1. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three

  2. Model-Checking with Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, Pierre; Siminiceanu, Radu I.

    2010-01-01

    We describe an algebra of Edge-Valued Decision Diagrams (EVMDDs) to encode arithmetic functions and its implementation in a model checking library along with state-of-the-art algorithms for building the transition relation and the state space of discrete state systems. We provide efficient algorithms for manipulating EVMDDs and give upper bounds of the theoretical time complexity of these algorithms for all basic arithmetic and relational operators. We also demonstrate that the time complexity of the generic recursive algorithm for applying a binary operator on EVMDDs is no worse than that of Multi-Terminal Decision Diagrams. We have implemented a new symbolic model checker with the intention to represent in one formalism the best techniques available at the moment across a spectrum of existing tools: EVMDDs for encoding arithmetic expressions, identity-reduced MDDs for representing the transition relation, and the saturation algorithm for reachability analysis. We compare our new symbolic model checking EVMDD library with the widely used CUDD package and show that, in many cases, our tool is several orders of magnitude faster than CUDD.

  3. Decision model to control water losses in distribution networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcele Elisa Fontana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The losses in the urban water supply networks have become a growing concern. There are several alternatives for the quantification, detection and monitoring of water losses. However, in general, water companies have budgetary and other constraints that hinder implementation. Therefore, this paper presents a model to aid the selection of a subset of preventive maintenance actions to control water losses while accounting for the water companies’ restrictions. The model combines an additive multi-attribute value analysis by applying the SMARTER method to evaluate alternatives with Integer Linear Programming (ILP. The model shows to be efficient in order to achieve a portfolio of preventive maintenance actions, particularly when the decision maker considers that, there is a compensation for attribute evaluations.

  4. Validation of decision-making models and analysis of decision variables in the rat basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-08-05

    Reinforcement learning theory plays a key role in understanding the behavioral and neural mechanisms of choice behavior in animals and humans. Especially, intermediate variables of learning models estimated from behavioral data, such as the expectation of reward for each candidate choice (action value), have been used in searches for the neural correlates of computational elements in learning and decision making. The aims of the present study are as follows: (1) to test which computational model best captures the choice learning process in animals and (2) to elucidate how action values are represented in different parts of the corticobasal ganglia circuit. We compared different behavioral learning algorithms to predict the choice sequences generated by rats during a free-choice task and analyzed associated neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and ventral pallidum (VP). The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) modified versions of an action-value learning model captured a variety of choice strategies of rats, including win-stay-lose-switch and persevering behavior, and predicted rats' choice sequences better than the best multistep Markov model; and (2) information about action values and future actions was coded in both the NAc and VP, but was less dominant than information about trial types, selected actions, and reward outcome. The results of our model-based analysis suggest that the primary role of the NAc and VP is to monitor information important for updating choice behaviors. Information represented in the NAc and VP might contribute to a choice mechanism that is situated elsewhere.

  5. Revision of the high energy hadronic interaction models PHOJET/DPMJET-III

    CERN Document Server

    Fedynitch, A

    2015-01-01

    The high-energy hadronic interaction model DPMJET-III is responsible for simulating nuclear interactions in the particle simulation package FLUKA. On the level of individual nucleon interactions it employs PHOJET, which provides sophisticated forward physics and diffraction models. This paper summarizes some of the recent developments, in particular regarding minimum-bias physics at the LHC, which apply to DPMJET-III and PHOJET at the same time.

  6. A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberije, Cary, E-mail: cary.oberije@maastro.nl [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); De Ruysscher, Dirk [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Universitaire Ziekenhuizen Leuven, KU Leuven (Belgium); Houben, Ruud [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Heuvel, Michel van de; Uyterlinde, Wilma [Department of Thoracic Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Deasy, Joseph O. [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States); Belderbos, Jose [Department of Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Dingemans, Anne-Marie C. [Department of Pulmonology, University Hospital Maastricht, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Rimner, Andreas; Din, Shaun [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States); Lambin, Philippe [Radiation Oncology, Research Institute GROW of Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2015-07-15

    Purpose: Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Methods and Materials: Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). Results: The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability ( (www.predictcancer.org)). The data set can be downloaded at (https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048). Conclusions: The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system.

  7. Modeling violations of the race model inequality in bimodal paradigms: co-activation from decision and non-decision components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eZehetleitner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The redundant-signals paradigm (RSP is designed to investigate response behavior in perceptual tasks in which response-relevant targets are defined by either one or two features, or modalities. The common finding is that responses are speeded for redundantly compared to singly defined targets. This redundant-signals effect (RSE can be accounted for by race models if the response times do not violate the race model inequality (RMI. When there are violations of the RMI, race models are effectively excluded as a viable account of the RSE. The common alternative is provided by co-activation accounts, which assume that redundant target signals are integrated at some processing stage. However, ‘co-activation’ has mostly been only indirectly inferred and the accounts have only rarely been explicitly modeled; if they were modeled, the RSE has typically been assumed to have a decisional locus. Yet, there are also indications in the literature that the RSE might originate, at least in part, at a non-decisional or motor stage. In the present study, using a distribution analysis of sequential-sampling models (ex-Wald and Ratcliff Diffusion model, the locus of the RSE was investigated for two bimodal (audio-visual detection tasks that strongly violated the RMI, indicative of substantial co-activation. Three model variants assuming different loci of the RSE were fitted to the quantile reaction time proportions: a decision, a non-decision, and a combined variant both to vincentized group as well as individual data. The results suggest that for the two bimodal detection tasks, co-activation has a shared decisional and non-decisional locus. These findings point to the possibility that the mechanisms underlying the RSE depend on the specifics (task, stimulus, conditions, etc. of the experimental paradigm.

  8. Modeling violations of the race model inequality in bimodal paradigms: co-activation from decision and non-decision components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehetleitner, Michael; Ratko-Dehnert, Emil; Müller, Hermann J

    2015-01-01

    The redundant-signals paradigm (RSP) is designed to investigate response behavior in perceptual tasks in which response-relevant targets are defined by either one or two features, or modalities. The common finding is that responses are speeded for redundantly compared to singly defined targets. This redundant-signals effect (RSE) can be accounted for by race models if the response times do not violate the race model inequality (RMI). When there are violations of the RMI, race models are effectively excluded as a viable account of the RSE. The common alternative is provided by co-activation accounts, which assume that redundant target signals are integrated at some processing stage. However, "co-activation" has mostly been only indirectly inferred and the accounts have only rarely been explicitly modeled; if they were modeled, the RSE has typically been assumed to have a decisional locus. Yet, there are also indications in the literature that the RSE might originate, at least in part, at a non-decisional or motor stage. In the present study, using a distribution analysis of sequential-sampling models (ex-Wald and Ratcliff Diffusion model), the locus of the RSE was investigated for two bimodal (audio-visual) detection tasks that strongly violated the RMI, indicative of substantial co-activation. Three model variants assuming different loci of the RSE were fitted to the quantile reaction time proportions: a decision, a non-decision, and a combined variant both to vincentized group as well as individual data. The results suggest that for the two bimodal detection tasks, co-activation has a shared decisional and non-decisional locus. These findings point to the possibility that the mechanisms underlying the RSE depend on the specifics (task, stimulus, conditions, etc.) of the experimental paradigm.

  9. Multicriteria decision group model for the selection of suppliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Hazin Alencar

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Several authors have been studying group decision making over the years, which indicates how relevant it is. This paper presents a multicriteria group decision model based on ELECTRE IV and VIP Analysis methods, to those cases where there is great divergence among the decision makers. This model includes two stages. In the first, the ELECTRE IV method is applied and a collective criteria ranking is obtained. In the second, using criteria ranking, VIP Analysis is applied and the alternatives are selected. To illustrate the model, a numerical application in the context of the selection of suppliers in project management is used. The suppliers that form part of the project team have a crucial role in project management. They are involved in a network of connected activities that can jeopardize the success of the project, if they are not undertaken in an appropriate way. The question tackled is how to select service suppliers for a project on behalf of an enterprise that assists the multiple objectives of the decision-makers.Vários autores têm estudado decisão em grupo nos últimos anos, o que indica a relevância do assunto. Esse artigo apresenta um modelo multicritério de decisão em grupo baseado nos métodos ELECTRE IV e VIP Analysis, adequado aos casos em que se tem uma grande divergência entre os decisores. Esse modelo é composto por dois estágios. No primeiro, o método ELECTRE IV é aplicado e uma ordenação dos critérios é obtida. No próximo estágio, com a ordenação dos critérios, o método VIP Analysis é aplicado e as alternativas são selecionadas. Para ilustrar o modelo, uma aplicação numérica no contexto da seleção de fornecedores em projetos é realizada. Os fornecedores que fazem parte da equipe do projeto têm um papel fundamental no gerenciamento de projetos. Eles estão envolvidos em uma rede de atividades conectadas que, caso não sejam executadas de forma apropriada, podem colocar em risco o sucesso do

  10. A generic concept for the development of model-guided clinical decision support systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denecke Kerstin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Disease development and progression are very complex processes which make clinical decision making non-trivial. On the one hand, examination results that are stored in multiple formats and data types in clinical information systems need to be considered. Beyond, biological or molecular-biological processes can influence clinical decision making. So far, biological knowledge and patient data is separated from each other. This complicates inclusion of all relevant knowledge and information into the decision making. In this paper, we describe a concept of model-based decision support that links knowledge about biological processes, treatment decisions and clinical data. It consists of three models: 1 a biological model, 2 a decision model encompassing medical knowledge about the treatment workflow and decision parameters, and 3 a patient data model generated from clinical data. Requirements and future steps for realizing the concept will be presented and it will be shown how the concept can support the clinical decision making.

  11. An Evaluation of the Decision-Making Capacity Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémault-Phillips, Suzette C.; Parmar, Jasneet; Friesen, Steven; Rogers, Laura G.; Pike, Ashley; Sluggett, Bryan

    2016-01-01

    Background The Decision-Making Capacity Assessment (DMCA) Model includes a best-practice process and tools to assess DMCA, and implementation strategies at the organizational and assessor levels to support provision of DMCAs across the care continuum. A Developmental Evaluation of the DMCA Model was conducted. Methods A mixed methods approach was used. Survey (N = 126) and focus group (N = 49) data were collected from practitioners utilizing the Model. Results Strengths of the Model include its best-practice and implementation approach, applicability to independent practitioners and inter-professional teams, focus on training/mentoring to enhance knowledge/skills, and provision of tools/processes. Post-training, participants agreed that they followed the Model’s guiding principles (90%), used problem-solving (92%), understood discipline-specific roles (87%), were confident in their knowledge of DMCAs (75%) and pertinent legislation (72%), accessed consultative services (88%), and received management support (64%). Model implementation is impeded when role clarity, physician engagement, inter-professional buy-in, accountability, dedicated resources, information sharing systems, and remuneration are lacking. Dedicated resources, job descriptions inclusive of DMCAs, ongoing education/mentoring supports, access to consultative services, and appropriate remuneration would support implementation. Conclusions The DMCA Model offers practitioners, inter-professional teams, and organizations a best-practice and implementation approach to DMCAs. Addressing barriers and further contextualizing the Model would be warranted. PMID:27729947

  12. Implementation of Dynamic Smart Decision Model for Vertical Handoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahni, Nidhi

    2010-11-01

    International Mobile Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT Advanced), better known as 4G is the next level of evolution in the field of wireless communications. 4G Wireless networks enable users to access information anywhere, anytime, with a seamless connection to a wide range of information and services, and receiving a large volume of information, data, pictures, video and thus increasing the demand for High Bandwidth and Signal Strength. The mobility among various networks is achieved through Vertical Handoff. Vertical handoffs refer to the automatic failover from one technology to another in order to maintain communication. The heterogeneous co-existence of access technologies with largely different characteristics creates a decision problem of determining the "best" available network at "best" time for handoff. In this paper, we implemented the proposed Dynamic and Smart Decision model to decide the "best" network interface and "best" time moment to handoff. The proposed model implementation not only demonstrates the individual user needs but also improve the whole system performance i.e. Quality of Service by reducing the unnecessary handoffs and maintain mobility.

  13. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  14. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  15. A Composite Modelling Approach to Decision Support by the Use of the CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a decision support system for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The composite modelling approach, COSIMA, combines a cost-benefit analysis by use of the CBA-DK model with multi-criteria analysis applying the AHP and SMARTER techniques. The modelling uncertainties...

  16. Prediction model based on decision tree analysis for laccase mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Fabiola; Aguila, Sergio; Baratto, Maria Camilla; Martorana, Andrea; Basosi, Riccardo; Alderete, Joel B; Vazquez-Duhalt, Rafael

    2013-01-10

    A Structure Activity Relationship (SAR) study for laccase mediator systems was performed in order to correctly classify different natural phenolic mediators. Decision tree (DT) classification models with a set of five quantum-chemical calculated molecular descriptors were used. These descriptors included redox potential (ɛ°), ionization energy (E(i)), pK(a), enthalpy of formation of radical (Δ(f)H), and OH bond dissociation energy (D(O-H)). The rationale for selecting these descriptors is derived from the laccase-mediator mechanism. To validate the DT predictions, the kinetic constants of different compounds as laccase substrates, their ability for pesticide transformation as laccase-mediators, and radical stability were experimentally determined using Coriolopsis gallica laccase and the pesticide dichlorophen. The prediction capability of the DT model based on three proposed descriptors showed a complete agreement with the obtained experimental results. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  18. Decoding Problem Gamblers' Signals: A Decision Model for Casino Enterprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifrim, Sandra

    2015-12-01

    The aim of the present study is to offer a validated decision model for casino enterprises. The model enables those users to perform early detection of problem gamblers and fulfill their ethical duty of social cost minimization. To this end, the interpretation of casino customers' nonverbal communication is understood as a signal-processing problem. Indicators of problem gambling recommended by Delfabbro et al. (Identifying problem gamblers in gambling venues: final report, 2007) are combined with Viterbi algorithm into an interdisciplinary model that helps decoding signals emitted by casino customers. Model output consists of a historical path of mental states and cumulated social costs associated with a particular client. Groups of problem and non-problem gamblers were simulated to investigate the model's diagnostic capability and its cost minimization ability. Each group consisted of 26 subjects and was subsequently enlarged to 100 subjects. In approximately 95% of the cases, mental states were correctly decoded for problem gamblers. Statistical analysis using planned contrasts revealed that the model is relatively robust to the suppression of signals performed by casino clientele facing gambling problems as well as to misjudgments made by staff regarding the clients' mental states. Only if the last mentioned source of error occurs in a very pronounced manner, i.e. judgment is extremely faulty, cumulated social costs might be distorted.

  19. Finite element modeling and experimental studies on mixed mode-I/III fracture specimens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bozkurt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, finite element modeling and experimental studies on a mode-I/III specimen similar to the compact tension specimen are presented. By using bolts, the specimen is attached to two loading apparatus that allow different levels of mode-I/III loading by changing the loading holes. Specimens having two different thicknesses are analyzed and tested. Modeling, meshing and the solution of the problem involving the whole assembly, i.e., loading devices, bolts and the specimen, with contact mechanics are performed using ANSYSTM. Then, the mode-I/III specimen is analyzed separately using a submodeling approach, in which threedimensional enriched finite elements are used in FRAC3D solver to calculate the resulting stress intensity factors along the crack front. In all of the analyses, it is clearly shown that although the loading is in the mode-I and III directions, mode-II stress intensity factors coupled with mode-III are also generated due to rotational relative deformations of crack surfaces. The results show that the mode-II stress intensity factors change sign along the crack front and their magnitudes are close to the mode-III stress intensity factors. It is also seen that magnitudes of the mode-III stress intensity factors do not vary much along the crack front. Fracture experiments also performed and, using the stress intensity factors from the analyses and crack paths and surfaces are shown.

  20. Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marandi, Ramtin Zargari; Sabzpoushan, S H

    2015-12-01

    A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

  1. Perceptual decision making: Drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian eBitzer

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Behavioural data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analysed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence towards a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses.

  2. Molecular modelling of a chemodosimeter for the selective detection of As(III) ion in water

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sairam S Mallajosyula; Usha H; Ayan Datta; Swapan K Pati

    2008-11-01

    We have modelled for the first time a chemodosimeter for As(III) detection in water. The chemodosimeter modelled is a 1,3-dithiole-2-thione derivative with an anthracene unit which has been previously described as a chemodosimeter for Hg(II) detection. Quantum chemical calculations at the DFT level have been used to describe the binding energies and selectivity of the chemodosimeter. We find that the dosimeter action is intrinsically dependent on the thiophillic affinity and the coordination sphere of the metal ion. Binding studies for a series of metal ions: Pb(II), Cd(II), Hg(II), Ni(II) and As(III) followed by an analysis of the complete reaction pathway explains the high selectivity of the dosimeter towards As(III). The dosimeter efficiency is calculated as 66% for As(III)-ion.

  3. Introducing Complex Decision Models to the Decision Maker with Computer Software - The Profile Distance Method (PDM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Bernroider

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we demonstrate how the profile distance method was transformed into a software environment enabling the decision maker to utilize a complex decision making tool without any advanced knowledge of the underlying mathematical and technical features. We present theoretical and technical aspects as well as contextual and usage related information from the viewpoint of the decision maker. Preliminary empirical results suggest that the developed software component is effective in terms of platform independence, usability and intuitive interface design. The data showed a good rating for usefulness, which, however, was targeted as the main goal for further development.

  4. A classification of the multiple criteria decision making models

    OpenAIRE

    Guerras Martín, Luis Angel

    1987-01-01

    In this work we have tried to present a classification of multiobjective techniques based in the relationship between the main subJects of decision process: analyst and decision maker. These relation, in terms of information flows, have important consequences for decision making processes in business organizations.

  5. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Teacher. Edition III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful educator evaluation and support system will help improve teaching and learning. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Teacher Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all teachers improve. Through the Model, the goal is to help create a…

  6. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  7. Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

    2014-05-01

    To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

  8. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  9. A Markov decision model for determining optimal outpatient scheduling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Jonathan

    2012-06-01

    Managing an efficient outpatient clinic can often be complicated by significant no-show rates and escalating appointment lead times. One method that has been proposed for avoiding the wasted capacity due to no-shows is called open or advanced access. The essence of open access is "do today's demand today". We develop a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model that demonstrates that a short booking window does significantly better than open access. We analyze a number of scenarios that explore the trade-off between patient-related measures (lead times) and physician- or system-related measures (revenue, overtime and idle time). Through simulation, we demonstrate that, over a wide variety of potential scenarios and clinics, the MDP policy does as well or better than open access in terms of minimizing costs (or maximizing profits) as well as providing more consistent throughput.

  10. Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

    2007-07-01

    We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

  11. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases....... In this paper, we highlight the role of modeling and simulation in enhancing decision-making processes in enterprises. In addition, we show some techniques that helped enterprises in reaching effective and efficient decisions by adopting modeling and simulation tools....

  12. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases....... In this paper, we highlight the role of modeling and simulation in enhancing decision-making processes in enterprises. In addition, we show some techniques that helped enterprises in reaching effective and efficient decisions by adopting modeling and simulation tools....

  13. Tetranuclear {Co(II)2Co(III)2}, Octanuclear {Co(II)4Co(III)4}, and Hexanuclear {Co(III)3Dy(III)3} Pivalate Clusters: Synthesis, Magnetic Characterization, and Theoretical Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radu, Ioana; Kravtsov, Victor Ch; Ostrovsky, Serghei M; Reu, Oleg S; Krämer, Karl; Decurtins, Silvio; Liu, Shi-Xia; Klokishner, Sophia I; Baca, Svetlana G

    2017-03-06

    New tetranuclear and octanuclear mixed-valent cobalt(II/III) pivalate clusters, namely, [NaCo4(O2CCMe3)6(HO2CCMe3)2(teaH)2(N3)]·2H2O (in two polymorphic modifications, 1 and 1a) and [Co8(O2CCMe3)10(teaH)4(N3)](Me3CCO2)·MeCN·H2O (2) have been synthesized by ultrasonic treatment of a dinuclear cobalt(II) pivalate precursor with sodium azide and triethanolamine (teaH3) ligand in acetonitrile. The use of Dy(NO3)3·6H2O in a similar reaction led to the precipitation of a tetranuclear [NaCo4(O2CCMe3)4(teaH)2(N3)(NO3)2(H2O)2]·H2O (3) cluster and a heterometallic hexanuclear [Co3Dy3(OH)4(O2CCMe3)6(teaH)3(H2O)3](NO3)2·H2O (4) cluster. Single-crystal X-ray analysis showed that 1 (1a) and 3 consist of a tetranuclear pivalate/teaH3 mixed-ligand cluster [Co(II)2Co(III)2(O2CCMe3)4(teaH)2(N3)](+) decorated with sodium pivalates [Na(O2CCMe3)2(HO2CCMe3)2](-) (1 or 1a) or sodium nitrates [Na(NO3)2](-) (3) to form a square-pyramidal assembly. In 2, the cationic [Co8(O2CCMe3)10(teaH)4(N3)](+) cluster comprises a mixed-valent {Co(II)4Co(III)4} core encapsulated by an azide, 4 teaH(2-) alcoholamine ligands, and 10 bridging pivalates. Remarkably, in this core, the μ4-N3(-) ligand joins all four Co(II) atoms. The heterometallic hexanuclear compound 4 consists of a cationic [Co(III)3Dy(III)3(OH)4(O2CCMe3)6(teaH)3(H2O)3](2+) cluster, two NO3(-) anions, and a crystallization water molecule. The arrangement of metal atoms in 4 can be approximated as the assembly of a smaller equilateral triangle defined by three Dy sites with a Dy···Dy distance of 3.9 Å and a larger triangle formed by Co sites [Co···Co, 6.1-6.2 Å]. The interpretation of the magnetic properties of clusters 2-4 was performed in the framework of theoretical models, taking into account the structural peculiarities of clusters and their energy spectra. The behavior of clusters 2 and 3 containing Co(II) ions with orbitally nondegenerate ground states is determined by the zero-field splitting of these states and

  14. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Building Administrator. Edition III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful educator evaluation and support system will help improve teaching, learning, and school leadership. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Building Administrator Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all building administrators improve.…

  15. Modeling of III-nitride light-emitting diodes: progress, problems, and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpov, Sergey Yu.

    2011-02-01

    Recent progress in III-nitride LED modeling is reviewed with the focus on physical models that provide a better understanding of such hot issues, as factors limiting the internal quantum efficiency of light emission and high-current efficiency droop, polarization doping in graded-composition III-nitride alloys and its utilization in LEDs, current crowding in LED dice and its impact on the light extraction efficiency, and optimal light conversion in white LED lamps. Specific features of III-nitride materials, their impact on the LED operation, and models accounting for these features are considered. Insufficient understanding of transport mechanisms of non-equilibrium electrons and holes and their localization in InGaN inhomogeneous active regions are discussed along with other still unsolved problems. Influence of technological factors on LED heterostructures and their operation is argued in the context of further model developments.

  16. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  17. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Colleen T; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A Reinforcement Learning Model of Precommitment in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeb eKurth-Nelson

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Addiction and many other disorders are linked to impulsivity, where a suboptimal choice is preferred when it is immediately available. One solution to impulsivity is precommitment: constraining one's future to avoid being offered a suboptimal choice. A form of impulsivity can be measured experimentally by offering a choice between a smaller reward delivered sooner and a larger reward delivered later. Impulsive subjects are more likely to select the smaller-sooner choice; however, when offered an option to precommit, even impulsive subjects can precommit to the larger-later choice. To precommit or not is a decision between two conditions: (A the original choice (smaller-sooner vs. larger-later, and (B a new condition with only larger-later available. It has been observed that precommitment appears as a consequence of the preference reversal inherent in non-exponential delay-discounting. Here we show that most models of hyperbolic discounting cannot precommit, but a distributed model of hyperbolic discounting does precommit. Using this model, we find (1 faster discounters may be more or less likely than slow discounters to precommit, depending on the precommitment delay, (2 for a constant smaller-sooner versus larger-later preference, a higher ratio of larger reward to smaller reward increases the probability of precommitment, and (3 precommitment is highly sensitive to the shape of the discount curve. These predictions imply that manipulations that alter the discount curve, such as diet or context, may qualitatively affect precommitment.

  19. Differential geometry based solvation model. III. Quantum formulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhan; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2011-11-21

    Solvation is of fundamental importance to biomolecular systems. Implicit solvent models, particularly those based on the Poisson-Boltzmann equation for electrostatic analysis, are established approaches for solvation analysis. However, ad hoc solvent-solute interfaces are commonly used in the implicit solvent theory. Recently, we have introduced differential geometry based solvation models which allow the solvent-solute interface to be determined by the variation of a total free energy functional. Atomic fixed partial charges (point charges) are used in our earlier models, which depends on existing molecular mechanical force field software packages for partial charge assignments. As most force field models are parameterized for a certain class of molecules or materials, the use of partial charges limits the accuracy and applicability of our earlier models. Moreover, fixed partial charges do not account for the charge rearrangement during the solvation process. The present work proposes a differential geometry based multiscale solvation model which makes use of the electron density computed directly from the quantum mechanical principle. To this end, we construct a new multiscale total energy functional which consists of not only polar and nonpolar solvation contributions, but also the electronic kinetic and potential energies. By using the Euler-Lagrange variation, we derive a system of three coupled governing equations, i.e., the generalized Poisson-Boltzmann equation for the electrostatic potential, the generalized Laplace-Beltrami equation for the solvent-solute boundary, and the Kohn-Sham equations for the electronic structure. We develop an iterative procedure to solve three coupled equations and to minimize the solvation free energy. The present multiscale model is numerically validated for its stability, consistency and accuracy, and is applied to a few sets of molecules, including a case which is difficult for existing solvation models. Comparison is made

  20. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes, Volume III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghani, M.U.; Hobbs, M.L.; Hamblen, D.G. [and others

    1993-08-01

    A generalized one-dimensional, heterogeneous, steady-state, fixed-bed model for coal gasification and combustion is presented. The model, FBED-1, is a design and analysis tool that can be used to simulate a variety of gasification, devolatilization, and combustion processes. The model considers separate gas and solid temperatures, axially variable solid and gas flow rates, variable bed void fraction, coal drying, devolatilization based on chemical functional group composition, depolymerization, vaporization and crosslinking, oxidation, and gasification of char, and partial equilibrium in the gas phase.

  1. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a

  2. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Mehlhorn, Katja

    2011-01-01

    Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a m

  3. A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael. Bevers

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

  4. Brain networks for exploration decisions utilizing distinct modeled information types during contextual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jane X; Voss, Joel L

    2014-06-04

    Exploration permits acquisition of the most relevant information during learning. However, the specific information needed, the influences of this information on decision making, and the relevant neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. We modeled distinct information types available during contextual association learning and used model-based fMRI in conjunction with manipulation of exploratory decision making to identify neural activity associated with information-based decisions. We identified hippocampal-prefrontal contributions to advantageous decisions based on immediately available novel information, distinct from striatal contributions to advantageous decisions based on the sum total available (accumulated) information. Furthermore, network-level interactions among these regions during exploratory decision making were related to learning success. These findings link strategic exploration decisions during learning to quantifiable information and advance understanding of adaptive behavior by identifying the distinct and interactive nature of brain-network contributions to decisions based on distinct information types.

  5. Research on group expandable optimization decision-ms,king model for construction programme choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

  6. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  7. Scale invariant cosmology III: dynamical models and comparisons with observations

    CERN Document Server

    Maeder, Andre

    2016-01-01

    We examine the properties of the scale invariant cosmological models, also making the specific hypothesis of the scale invariance of the empty space at large scales. Numerical integrations of the cosmological equations for different values of the curvature parameter k and of the density parameter Omega_m are performed. We compare the dynamical properties of the models to the observations at different epochs. The main numerical data and graphical representations are given for models computed with different curvatures and density parameters. The models with non-zero density start explosively with first a braking phase followed by a continuously accelerating expansion. The comparison of the models with the recent observations from supernovae SN Ia, BAO and CMB data from Planck 2015 shows that the scale invariant model with k=0 and Omega_m=0.30 very well fits the observations in the usual Omega_m vs. Omega_Lambda plane and consistently accounts for the accelerating expansion or dark energy. The expansion history ...

  8. The development of decision limits for the GH-2000 detection methodology using additional insulin-like growth factor-I and amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Richard I G; Böhning, Walailuck; Guha, Nishan; Bartlett, Christiaan; Cowan, David A; Giraud, Sylvain; Bassett, E Eryl; Sönksen, Peter H; Böhning, Dankmar

    2015-09-01

    The GH-2000 and GH-2004 projects have developed a method for detecting GH misuse based on measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen (P-III-NP). The objectives were to analyze more samples from elite athletes to improve the reliability of the decision limit estimates, to evaluate whether the existing decision limits needed revision, and to validate further non-radioisotopic assays for these markers. The study included 998 male and 931 female elite athletes. Blood samples were collected according to World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) guidelines at various sporting events including the 2011 International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Athletics Championships in Daegu, South Korea. IGF-I was measured by the Immunotech A15729 IGF-I IRMA, the Immunodiagnostic Systems iSYS IGF-I assay and a recently developed mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method. P-III-NP was measured by the Cisbio RIA-gnost P-III-P, Orion UniQ™ PIIINP RIA and Siemens ADVIA Centaur P-III-NP assays. The GH-2000 score decision limits were developed using existing statistical techniques. Decision limits were determined using a specificity of 99.99% and an allowance for uncertainty because of the finite sample size. The revised Immunotech IGF-I - Orion P-III-NP assay combination decision limit did not change significantly following the addition of the new samples. The new decision limits are applied to currently available non-radioisotopic assays to measure IGF-I and P-III-NP in elite athletes, which should allow wider flexibility to implement the GH-2000 marker test for GH misuse while providing some resilience against manufacturer withdrawal or change of assays.

  9. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  10. Modelling of the costs of decision support for small and medium-sized enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viera Tomišová

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The support of decision-making activities in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME has its specific features. When suggesting steps for the implementation of decision-support tools in the enterprise, we identified two main ways of decision-making support based on the data analysis: ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning without BI (Business Intelligence and ERP with BI. In our contribution, we present costs models of both mentioned decision support systems and their practical interpretation.

  11. A decision support model for improving a multi-family housing complex based on CO2 emission from electricity consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong

    2012-12-15

    The number of deteriorated multi-family housing complexes in South Korea continues to rise, and consequently their electricity consumption is also increasing. This needs to be addressed as part of the nation's efforts to reduce energy consumption. The objective of this research was to develop a decision support model for determining the need to improve multi-family housing complexes. In this research, 1664 cases located in Seoul were selected for model development. The research team collected the characteristics and electricity energy consumption data of these projects in 2009-2010. The following were carried out in this research: (i) using the Decision Tree, multi-family housing complexes were clustered based on their electricity energy consumption; (ii) using Case-Based Reasoning, similar cases were retrieved from the same cluster; and (iii) using a combination of Multiple Regression Analysis, Artificial Neural Network, and Genetic Algorithm, the prediction performance of the developed model was improved. The results of this research can be used as follows: (i) as basic research data for continuously managing several energy consumption data of multi-family housing complexes; (ii) as advanced research data for predicting energy consumption based on the project characteristics; (iii) as practical research data for selecting the most optimal multi-family housing complex with the most potential in terms of energy savings; and (iv) as consistent and objective criteria for incentives and penalties.

  12. Model Driven Integrated Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Weston, Richard H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making requirements and solutions are observed in four world class Manufacturing Enterprises (MEs). Observations made focus on deployed methods of complexity handling that facilitate multi-purpose, distributed decision making. Also observed are examples of partially deficient “integrated decision making” which stem from lack of understanding about how ME structural relations enable and/or constrain reachable ME behaviours. To begin to address this deficiency the paper outlines the us...

  13. The joint WAIS-III and WMS-III factor structure: development and cross-validation of a six-factor model of cognitive functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulsky, David S; Price, Larry R

    2003-06-01

    During the standardization of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (3rd ed.; WAIS-III) and the Wechsler Memory Scale (3rd ed.; WMS-III) the participants in the normative study completed both scales. This "co-norming" methodology set the stage for full integration of the 2 tests and the development of an expanded structure of cognitive functioning. Until now, however, the WAIS-III and WMS-III had not been examined together in a factor analytic study. This article presents a series of confirmatory factor analyses to determine the joint WAIS-III and WMS-III factor structure. Using a structural equation modeling approach, a 6-factor model that included verbal, perceptual, processing speed, working memory, auditory memory, and visual memory constructs provided the best model fit to the data. Allowing select subtests to load simultaneously on 2 factors improved model fit and indicated that some subtests are multifaceted. The results were then replicated in a large cross-validation sample (N = 858).

  14. The Instanton-Dyon Liquid Model III: Finite Chemical Potential

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Yizhuang; Zahed, Ismail

    2016-01-01

    We discuss an extension of the instanton-dyon liquid model that includes light quarks at finite chemical potential in the center symmetric phase. We develop the model in details for the case of SU_c(2)\\times SU_f(2) by mapping the theory on a 3-dimensional quantum effective theory. We analyze the different phases in the mean-field approximation. We extend this analysis to the general case of SU_c(N_c)\\times SU_f(N_f) and note that the chiral and diquark pairings are always comparable.

  15. Perbedaan Kekuatan Kompresi Gips Tipe III Pabrikan dan Daur Ulang untuk Pembuatan Model Kerja

    OpenAIRE

    Wijaya, Cindy Denhara

    2015-01-01

    Gipsum (kalsium sulfat dihidrat) merupakan material yang sering digunakan sebagai model studi maupun model kerja dalam kedokteran gigi. Tipe gips yang sering digunakan sebagai model kerja ialah gips tipe III menurut spesifikasi American Dental Association (ADA). Reaksi pengerasan gipsum merupakan reaksi reversibel sehingga kalsium sulfat dihidrat dapat diubah kembali menjadi kalsium sulfat hemihidrat. Hal ini yang mendasari pemikiran untuk mendaur ulang limbah model kerja ya...

  16. Perceived Health Benefits and Soy Consumption Behavior: Two-Stage Decision Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Moon, Wanki; Balasubramanian, Siva K.; Rimal, Arbindra

    2005-01-01

    A two-stage decision model is developed to assess the effect of perceived soy health benefits on consumers' decisions with respect to soy food. The first stage captures whether or not to consume soy food, while the second stage reflects how often to consume. A conceptual/analytical framework is also employed, combining Lancaster's characteristics model and Fishbein's multi-attribute model. Results show that perceived soy health benefits significantly influence both decision stages. Further, c...

  17. Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

    1978-12-01

    Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

  18. Toward a Model of Vocational Persistence Among Seminarians: Part III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, James L.

    1970-01-01

    Assumptions underlying model rely on Cartwright and Harary's (1960) definition of Heider's cognitive balance theory and Festinger's (1957) cognitive dissonance theory. Diagrams illustrate degree of balance between personal and reference group (curch authorities, classmates, family) attitudes. Parts I and II in earlier issues. (CJ)

  19. Toward a Model of Vocational Persistence Among Seminarians: Part III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, James L.

    1970-01-01

    Assumptions underlying model rely on Cartwright and Harary's (1960) definition of Heider's cognitive balance theory and Festinger's (1957) cognitive dissonance theory. Diagrams illustrate degree of balance between personal and reference group (curch authorities, classmates, family) attitudes. Parts I and II in earlier issues. (CJ)

  20. Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A. Drews

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Improving community resiliency to wildfire is a challenging problem in the face of ongoing development in fire-prone regions. Evacuation and shelter-in-place are the primary options for reducing wildfire casualties, but it can be difficult to determine which option offers the most protection in urgent scenarios. Although guidelines and policies have been proposed to inform this decision, a formal approach to evaluating protective options would help advance protective-action theory. We present an optimization model based on the premise that protecting a community can be viewed as assigning threatened households to one of three actions: evacuation, shelter-in-refuge, or shelter-in-home. While evacuation generally offers the highest level of life protection, it can place residents at greater risk when little time is available. This leads to complex trade-offs involving expected fire intensity, available time, and the quality and accessibility of in-place shelter. An application of the model is presented to illustrate a range of issues that can arise across scenarios.

  1. Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

    1988-01-01

    A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

  2. Neurologic abnormalities in mouse models of the lysosomal storage disorders mucolipidosis II and mucolipidosis III γ.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A Idol

    Full Text Available UDP-GlcNAc:lysosomal enzyme N-acetylglucosamine-1-phosphotransferase is an α2β2γ2 hexameric enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of the mannose 6-phosphate targeting signal on lysosomal hydrolases. Mutations in the α/β subunit precursor gene cause the severe lysosomal storage disorder mucolipidosis II (ML II or the more moderate mucolipidosis III alpha/beta (ML III α/β, while mutations in the γ subunit gene cause the mildest disorder, mucolipidosis III gamma (ML III γ. Here we report neurologic consequences of mouse models of ML II and ML III γ. The ML II mice have a total loss of acid hydrolase phosphorylation, which results in depletion of acid hydrolases in mesenchymal-derived cells. The ML III γ mice retain partial phosphorylation. However, in both cases, total brain extracts have normal or near normal activity of many acid hydrolases reflecting mannose 6-phosphate-independent lysosomal targeting pathways. While behavioral deficits occur in both models, the onset of these changes occurs sooner and the severity is greater in the ML II mice. The ML II mice undergo progressive neurodegeneration with neuronal loss, astrocytosis, microgliosis and Purkinje cell depletion which was evident at 4 months whereas ML III γ mice have only mild to moderate astrocytosis and microgliosis at 12 months. Both models accumulate the ganglioside GM2, but only ML II mice accumulate fucosylated glycans. We conclude that in spite of active mannose 6-phosphate-independent targeting pathways in the brain, there are cell types that require at least partial phosphorylation function to avoid lysosomal dysfunction and the associated neurodegeneration and behavioral impairments.

  3. Carbon dioxide stripping in aquaculture -- part III: model verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colt, John; Watten, Barnaby; Pfeiffer, Tim

    2012-01-01

    Based on conventional mass transfer models developed for oxygen, the use of the non-linear ASCE method, 2-point method, and one parameter linear-regression method were evaluated for carbon dioxide stripping data. For values of KLaCO2 < approximately 1.5/h, the 2-point or ASCE method are a good fit to experimental data, but the fit breaks down at higher values of KLaCO2. How to correct KLaCO2 for gas phase enrichment remains to be determined. The one-parameter linear regression model was used to vary the C*CO2 over the test, but it did not result in a better fit to the experimental data when compared to the ASCE or fixed C*CO2 assumptions.

  4. Asymmetric Gepner Models III. B-L Lifting

    CERN Document Server

    Gato-Rivera, B

    2010-01-01

    In the same spirit as heterotic weight lifting, B-L lifting is a way of replacing the superfluous and ubiquitous U(1)_{B-L} with something else with the same modular properties, but different conformal weights and ground state dimensions. This method works in principle for all variants of (2,2) constructions, such as orbifolds, Calabi-Yau manifolds, free bosons and fermions and Gepner models, since it only modifies the universal SO(10) x E_8 part of the CFT. However, it can only yield chiral spectra if the ``internal" sector of the theory provides a simple current of order 5. Here we apply this new method to Gepner models. Including exceptional invariants, 86 of them have the required order 5 simple current, and 69 of these yield chiral spectra. Three family spectra occur abundantly.

  5. Asymmetric Gepner models III. B-L lifting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gato-Rivera, B. [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands); Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain); Schellekens, A.N., E-mail: t58@nikhef.n [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands); Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain); IMAPP, Radboud Universiteit, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2011-06-21

    In the same spirit as heterotic weight lifting, B-L lifting is a way of replacing the superfluous and ubiquitous U(1){sub B-L} with something else with the same modular properties, but different conformal weights and ground state dimensions. This method works in principle for all variants of (2,2) constructions, such as orbifolds, Calabi-Yau manifolds, free bosons and fermions and Gepner models, since it only modifies the universal SO(10)xE{sub 8} part of the CFT. However, it can only yield chiral spectra if the 'internal' sector of the theory provides a simple current of order 5. Here we apply this new method to Gepner models. Including exceptional invariants, 86 of them have the required order 5 simple current, and 69 of these yield chiral spectra. Three family spectra occur abundantly.

  6. Bayesian Decision Theory Guiding Educational Decision-Making: Theories, Models and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yilin

    2016-01-01

    Given the importance of education and the growing public demand for improving education quality under tight budget constraints, there has been an emerging movement to call for research-informed decisions in educational resource allocation. Despite the abundance of rigorous studies on the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of educational…

  7. Control of a Braitenberg Lizard in a Phonotaxis Task with Decision Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaikh, Danish; Hallam, John; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    a Braitenberg vehicle–like mobile robot without any decision model in a phonotaxis task. In this paper we extend the Braitenberg vehicle model to include two separate decision models in the control and recreate the phonotaxis task. We compare the performance of the robot, in terms of successful phonotaxis...

  8. Model requirements for decision support under uncertainty in data scarce dynamic deltas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van Deursen, W.P.A.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Middelkoop, H.

    2016-01-01

    There is a long tradition of model-based decision support in water management. The consideration of deep uncertainty, however, changes the requirements imposed on models.. In the face of deep uncertainty, models are used to explore many uncertainties and the decision space across multiple outcomes o

  9. Executable Behavioral Modeling of System and Software Architecture Specifications to Inform Resourcing Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    BEHAVIORAL MODELING OF SYSTEM- AND SOFTWARE-ARCHITECTURE SPECIFICATIONS TO INFORM RESOURCING DECISIONS by Monica F. Farah-Stapleton...REPORT DATE September 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Doctoral Dissertation 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE EXECUTABLE BEHAVIORAL MODELING OF SYSTEM...intellectual, programmatic, and organizational resources. Precise behavioral modeling offers a way to assess architectural design decisions prior to

  10. Decision Development in Small Groups I: A Comparison of Two Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Marshall Scott

    1981-01-01

    Studies the sequence of phases in group decision making. Compares the unitary sequence model, which assumes that all groups follow the same sequence of phases, and the multiple sequence model, which assumes that different groups follow different sequences. Results support the latter model and suggest revisions in current decision development. (PD)

  11. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross

  12. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murshid M

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

  13. Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohaidin, Zurina

    2017-01-01

    To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

  14. Modeling of the adsorptive removal of arsenic(III) using plant biomass: a bioremedial approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Palas; Dey, Uttiya; Chattoraj, Soumya; Mukhopadhyay, Debasis; Mondal, Naba Kumar

    2017-06-01

    In the present work, the possibility of using a non-conventional finely ground (250 μm) Azadirachta indica (neem) bark powder [AiBP] has been tested as a low-cost biosorbent for the removal of arsenic(III) from water. The removal of As(III) was studied by performing a series of biosorption experiments (batch and column). The biosorption behavior of As(III) for batch and column operations were examined in the concentration ranges of 50-500 µg L-1 and 500.0-2000.0 µg L-1, respectively. Under optimized batch conditions, the AiBP could remove up to 89.96 % of As(III) in water system. The artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed from batch experimental data sets which provided reasonable predictive performance ( R 2 = 0.961; 0.954) of As(III) biosorption. In batch operation, the initial As(III) concentration had the most significant impact on the biosorption process. For column operation, central composite design (CCD) was applied to investigate the influence on the breakthrough time for optimization of As(III) biosorption process and evaluation of interacting effects of different operating variables. The optimized result of CCD revealed that the AiBP was an effective and economically feasible biosorbent with maximum breakthrough time of 653.9 min, when the independent variables were retained at 2.0 g AiBP dose, 2000.0 µg L-1 initial As(III) concentrations, and 3.0 mL min-1 flow rate, at maximum desirability value of 0.969.

  15. Decision models for use with criterion-referenced tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1980-01-01

    The problem of mastery decisions and optimizing cutoff scores on criterion-referenced tests is considered. This problem can be formalized as an (empirical) Bayes problem with decisions rules of a monotone shape. Next, the derivation of optimal cutoff scores for threshold, linear, and normal ogive lo

  16. A Gaussian Model of Expert Opinions for Supporting Design Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabalinejad, M.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making in design is of great importance, resulting in success or failure of a system. This paper describes a robust decision support tool for engineering design process, which can be used throughout the design process. The tool is graphical and designed to communicate efficiently with diffe

  17. Hybrid multiple attribute decision making model based on entropy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Wei; Cui Mingming

    2007-01-01

    From the viewpoint of entropy, this paper investigates a hybrid multiple attribute decision making problem with precision number, interval number and fuzzy number. It defines a new concept: project entropy and the decision is taken according to the values. The validity and scientific nature of the given is proven.

  18. Goal-Programming Model Based on the Utility Function of the Decision-maker

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhi-jiang

    2001-01-01

    Based on the analysis of the problems in traditional GP model, this paper provides the model with the utility function of the decision-maker and compares this model with the one presented in reference article [1].

  19. Exact results in modeling planetary atmospheres-III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pelkowski, J. [Institut fuer Atmosphaere und Umwelt, J.W. Goethe Universitaet Frankfurt, Campus Riedberg, Altenhoferallee 1, D-60438 Frankfurt a.M. (Germany)], E-mail: Pelkowski@meteor.uni-frankfurt.de; Chevallier, L. [Observatoire de Paris-Meudon, Laboratoire LUTH, 5 Place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon cedex (France); Rutily, B. [Universite de Lyon, F-69003 Lyon (France); Universite Lyon 1, Observatoire de Lyon, 9 avenue Charles Andre, F-69230 Saint-Genis-Laval (France); CNRS, UMR 5574, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon (France); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon, F-69007 Lyon (France); Titaud, O. [Centro de Modelamiento Matematico, UMI 2807 CNRS-UChile, Blanco Encalada 2120 - 7 Piso, Casilla 170 - Correo 3, Santiago (Chile)

    2008-01-15

    We apply the semi-gray model of our previous paper to the particular case of the Earth's atmosphere, in order to illustrate quantitatively the inverse problem associated with the direct problem we dealt with before. From given climatological values of the atmosphere's spherical albedo and transmittance for visible radiation, the single-scattering albedo and the optical thickness in the visible are inferred, while the infrared optical thickness is deduced for given global average surface temperature. Eventually, temperature distributions in terms of the infrared optical depth will be shown for a terrestrial atmosphere assumed to be semi-gray and, locally, in radiative and thermodynamic equilibrium.

  20. Modeling collective & intelligent decision making of multi-cellular populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong-Jun; Mahrou, Bahareh

    2014-01-01

    In the presence of unpredictable disturbances and uncertainties, cells intelligently achieve their goals by sharing information via cell-cell communication and making collective decisions, which are more reliable compared to individual decisions. Inspired by adaptive sensor network algorithms studied in communication engineering, we propose that a multi-cellular adaptive network can convert unreliable decisions by individual cells into a more reliable cell-population decision. It is demonstrated using the effector T helper (a type of immune cell) population, which plays a critical role in initiating immune reactions in response to invading foreign agents (e.g., viruses, bacteria, etc.). While each individual cell follows a simple adaptation rule, it is the combined coordination among multiple cells that leads to the manifestation of "self-organizing" decision making via cell-cell communication.

  1. A Knowledge Model- and Growth Model-Based Decision Support System for Wheat Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Yan; CAO Wei-xing; WANG Qi-meng; TIAN Yong-chao; PAN Jie

    2003-01-01

    By applying the system analysis principle and mathematical modeling technique to knowledge expression system for crop cultural management, the fundamental relationships and quantitative algorithms of wheat growth and management indices to variety types, ecological environments and production levels were analysed and extracted, and a dynamic knowledge model with temporal and spatial characters for wheat management (WheatKnow) was developed. By adopting the soft component characteristics as non language rele vance, re-utilization and portable system maintenance, and by further integrating the wheat growth simulation model (WheatGrow) and intelligent system for wheat management, a comprehensive and digital knowledge model, growth model and component-based decision support system for wheat management (MBDSSWM) was established on the platforms of Visual C++ and Visual Basic. The MBDSSWM realized the effective integration and coupling of the prediction and decision-making functions for digital crop management.

  2. Modeling rare earth complexes: Sparkle/PM3 parameters for thulium(III)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Ricardo O.; Rocha, Gerd B.; Simas, Alfredo M.

    2006-07-01

    The Sparkle model, recently defined for Tm(III) within AM1 [R.O. Freire, G.B. Rocha, A.M. Simas, Chem. Phys. Lett. 411 (2005) 61], is now extended to PM3. For the same 15 complexes previously used, the Sparkle/PM3 unsigned mean error, for all interatomic distances between the Tm(III) ion and the directly coordinating oxygen or nitrogen atoms, is 0.08 Å, a level of accuracy equivalent to the Sparkle/AM1 figure of 0.07 Å, as well as to results from present day ab initio effective core potential calculations. The results thus indicate that both Sparkle/AM1 and Sparkle/PM3 models may prove useful for luminescent Tm(III) complex design.

  3. Critical infrastructure protection decision support system decision model : overview and quick-start user's guide.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samsa, M.; Van Kuiken, J.; Jusko, M.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-12-01

    The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Decision Model (CIPDSS-DM) is a useful tool for comparing the effectiveness of alternative risk-mitigation strategies on the basis of CIPDSS consequence scenarios. The model is designed to assist analysts and policy makers in evaluating and selecting the most effective risk-mitigation strategies, as affected by the importance assigned to various impact measures and the likelihood of an incident. A typical CIPDSS-DM decision map plots the relative preference of alternative risk-mitigation options versus the annual probability of an undesired incident occurring once during the protective life of the investment, assumed to be 20 years. The model also enables other types of comparisons, including a decision map that isolates a selected impact variable and displays the relative preference for the options of interest--parameterized on the basis of the contribution of the isolated variable to total impact, as well as the likelihood of the incident. Satisfaction/regret analysis further assists the analyst or policy maker in evaluating the confidence with which one option can be selected over another.

  4. Local models of stellar convection III: The Strouhal number

    CERN Document Server

    Käpylä, P J; Ossendrijver, M; Tuominen, I

    2004-01-01

    (Abbreviated) We determine the Strouhal number (St), a nondimensional measure of the correlation time, from numerical models of convection. The Strouhal number arises in the mean-field theories of angular momentum transport and dynamos, where its value determines the validity of certain widely used approximations, such as the first order smoothing (FOSA). More specifically, the relevant transport coefficients can be calculated by means of a cumulative series expansion if St < 1 (e.g. Knobloch 1978). We use two independent methods to estimate St. Firstly, we apply the minimal tau-approximation (MTA) in the equation of the time derivative of the Reynolds stress. In this approach the time derivative is essentially replaced by a term containing a relaxation time which can be interpreted as the correlation time of the turbulence. In this approach, the turnover time is estimated simply from the energy carrying scale of the convection and a typical velocity. In the second approach, we determine the correlation an...

  5. Role of decision analysis in relation to clinical trials and a US perspective of the Battelle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillner, B E

    1996-01-01

    Economic assessment of evolving technologies is assuming increasing importance worldwide. One form of economic assessment uses decision analysis, a simulation technique, to determine whether performing a clinical trial is worthwhile. This type of assessment may streamline data collection within a clinical trial, and can aid in the interpretation of a trial result with substantial benefits and toxicities. Although second-line chemotherapy for patients with metastatic breast cancer is in common use, its benefit is unclear and it is associated with substantial cost. A database search of currently active or recently closed randomised phase III comparative trials for metastatic breast cancer found only 6 trials involving a comparison of chemotherapies. Only 1 trial allowed prior chemotherapy for metastatic disease. Given the paucity of forthcoming clinical data, decision analysis is an appropriate tool for estimating the effectiveness of potential treatments with second-line agents for metastatic breast cancer. The findings of the Battelle decision analysis model, described in this issue, identified response rates and 1-year mortality as the key areas of focus for comparative trials. Decision analysis can improve the design and efficacy of prospective, comparative trials but cannot replace them.

  6. Multi-Objective Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Etessami, Kousha; Vardi, Moshe Y; Yannakakis, Mihalis

    2008-01-01

    We study and provide efficient algorithms for multi-objective model checking problems for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Given an MDP, $M$, and given multiple linear-time ($\\omega$-regular or LTL) properties $\\varphi_i$, and probabilities $r_i \\in [0,1]$, $i=1,...,k$, we ask whether there exists a strategy $\\sigma$ for the controller such that, for all $i$, the probability that a trajectory of $M$ controlled by $\\sigma$ satisfies $\\varphi_i$ is at least $r_i$. We provide an algorithm that decides whether there exists such a strategy and if so produces it, and which runs in time polynomial in the size of the MDP. Such a strategy may require the use of both randomization and memory. We also consider more general multi-objective $\\omega$-regular queries, which we motivate with an application to assume-guarantee compositional reasoning for probabilistic systems. Note that there can be trade-offs between different properties: satisfying property $\\varphi_1$ with high probability may necessitate satisfying $\\var...

  7. Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

    2016-04-01

    With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions.

  8. The development of decision limits for the GH-2000 detection methodology using additional insulin-like growth factor-I and amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen assays

    OpenAIRE

    Holt, Richard I.G.; Böhning, Walailuck; Guha, Nishan; Bartlett, Christiaan; David A. Cowan; Giraud, Sylvain; Bassett, E. Eryl; Sönksen, Peter H.; Böhning, Dankmar

    2015-01-01

    The GH-2000 and GH-2004 projects have developed a method for detecting GH misuse based on measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen (P-III-NP). The objectives were to analyze more samples from elite athletes to improve the reliability of the decision limit estimates, to evaluate whether the existing decision limits needed revision, and to validate further non-radioisotopic assays for these markers. The study included 998 male and 93...

  9. The Application of Time-Delay Dependent H∞ Control Model in Manufacturing Decision Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Guo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a time-delay dependent H∞ control model to analyze the effect of manufacturing decisions on the process of transmission from resources to capability. We establish a theoretical framework of manufacturing management process based on three terms: resource, manufacturing decision, and capability. Then we build a time-delay H∞ robust control model to analyze the robustness of manufacturing management. With the state feedback controller between manufacturing resources and decision, we find that there is an optimal decision to adjust the process of transmission from resources to capability under uncertain environment. Finally, we provide an example to prove the robustness of this model.

  10. The Development of a Normative Acquisition Decision Making Model Incorporating Decision Analysis Principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-09-01

    defined in terms of the functions the manager is responsible for accomplishing. The five functions originally described by Henri Fayol in 1916 are...still used today. The functions of management are planning, organizing, coordinating, commanding (or directing), and controlling. The focus of the Fayol ... Henry ; Raisinghani, Duru; Theoret, Andre. "The Structure of ’Unstructured’ Decision Processes", Administrative Science Quarterly, 21: 246-275 (June 1976

  11. River water quality model no. 1 (RWQM1): III. Biochemical submodel selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanrolleghem, P.; Borchardt, D.; Henze, Mogens

    2001-01-01

    The new River Water Quality Model no.1 introduced in the two accompanying papers by Shanahan et al. and Reichert et al. is comprehensive. Shanahan et al. introduced a six-step decision procedure to select the necessary model features for a certain application. This paper specifically addresses on...

  12. River water quality model no. 1 (RWQM1): III. Biochemical submodel selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanrolleghem, P.; Borchardt, D.; Henze, Mogens;

    2001-01-01

    The new River Water Quality Model no.1 introduced in the two accompanying papers by Shanahan et al. and Reichert et al. is comprehensive. Shanahan et al. introduced a six-step decision procedure to select the necessary model features for a certain application. This paper specifically addresses one...

  13. Identifying Tipping Points in a Decision-Theoretic Model of Network Security

    OpenAIRE

    Heimann, C. F. Larry; Nochenson, Alan

    2012-01-01

    Although system administrators are frequently urged to protect the machines in their network, the fact remains that the decision to protect is far from universal. To better understand this decision, we formulate a decision-theoretic model of a system administrator responsible for a network of size n against an attacker attempting to penetrate the network and infect the machines with a virus or similar exploit. By analyzing the model we are able to demonstrate the cost sensitivity of smaller n...

  14. A quantum dynamic belief model to explain the interference effects of categorization on decision making

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zichang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-01-01

    Categorization is necessary for many decision making tasks. However, the categorization process may interfere the decision making result and the law of total probability can be violated in some situations. To predict the interference effect of categorization, some model based on quantum probability has been proposed. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief (QDB) model is proposed. Considering the precise decision may not be made during the process, the concept of uncertainty is introduced...

  15. Decision model for evaluating reactor disposition of excess plutonium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T.

    1995-02-01

    The US Department of Energy is currently considering a range of technologies for disposition of excess weapon plutonium. Use of plutonium fuel in fission reactors to generate spent fuel is one class of technology options. This report describes the inputs and results of decision analyses conducted to evaluate four evolutionary/advanced and three existing fission reactor designs for plutonium disposition. The evaluation incorporates multiple objectives or decision criteria, and accounts for uncertainty. The purpose of the study is to identify important and discriminating decision criteria, and to identify combinations of value judgments and assumptions that tend to favor one reactor design over another.

  16. Contextual Risk-based Decision Modeling for Vehicular Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijey Thayananthan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A vehicular ad hoc network (VANET is the emerging technology that allows the drivers to keep the road safety throughout the journey. In VANETs, vehicles can collaborate with each other by exchanging the messages. When these messages are incorrect, drivers will have to face many serious problems which include traffic congestion and minor to fatal road accidents. Therefore, drivers need a method which provides the correct decision using risk analysis calculated from the vehicle context. For this purpose, we propose a new contextual risk-based decision methodology for vehicular networks. This methodology can be used to provide robust and reliable decisions.

  17. Assessment of the potential allergenicity of ice structuring protein type III HPLC 12 using the FAO/WHO 2001 decision tree for novel foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindslev-Jensen, C; Sten, E; Earl, L K; Crevel, R W R; Bindslev-Jensen, U; Hansen, T K; Stahl Skov, P; Poulsen, L K

    2003-01-01

    The introduction of novel proteins into foods carries a risk of eliciting allergic reactions in individuals sensitive to the introduced protein. Therefore, decision trees for evaluation of the risk have been developed, the latest being proposed by WHO/FAO early in 2001. Proteins developed using modern biotechnology and derived from fish are being considered for use in food and other applications, and since allergy to fish is well established, a potential risk from such proteins to susceptible human beings exists. The overall aim of the study was to investigate the potential allergenicity of an Ice Structuring Protein (ISP) originating from an arctic fish (the ocean pout, Macrozoarces americanus) using the newly developed decision tree proposed by FAO/WHO. The methods used were those proposed by FAO/WHO including amino acid sequence analysis for sequence similarity to known allergens, methods for assessing degradability under standardised conditions, assays for detection of specific IgE against the protein (Maxisorb RAST) and histamine release from human basophils. In the present paper we describe the serum screening phase of the study and discuss the overall application of the decision tree to the assessment of the potential allergenicity of ISP Type III. In an accompanying paper [Food Chem. Toxicol. 40 (2002) 965], we detail the specific methodology used for the sequence analysis and assessment of resistance to pepsin-catalysed proteolysis of this protein. The ISP showed no sequence similarity to known allergens nor was it stable to proteolytic degradation using standardised methods. Using sera from 20 patients with a well-documented clinical history of fish allergy, positive in skin prick tests to ocean pout, eel pout and eel were used, positive IgE-binding in vitro to extracts of the same fish was confirmed. The sera also elicited histamine release in vitro in the presence of the same extracts. The ISP was negative in all cases in the same experiments. Using the

  18. A procurement decision model for a video rental store - A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BJ Kok

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available A procurement decision model for a video rental store is presented in this paper. The model is based on inventory management, but many classical inventory management principles are inappropriate since the commodities (movie titles are removed from, and after a certain time period, returned to inventory. The commodities also have a decaying demand in general; hence the video rental store owner (the decision maker is required to procure new titles periodically. The question addressed in this paper is how to determine which movie titles to acquire, and how many copies of each in order to best maximise profit. An approximated demand function is presented, and attributes of movie titles in inventory are used to classify candidate movie titles and predict their future demand. This allows the decision maker to select the most profitable candidate items from a list, whilst remaining within a predetermined budget. The procurement decision model is evaluated by means of predicting the expected turnover using the procurement decision model solution, and then comparing it to the turnover achieved using the procurement strategy followed by the store owner. The model is not prescriptive - the decision maker may still utilise his/her experience to acquire new movie titles. The procurement decision model, however, does assist the decision making process by presenting a point of departure from which procurement decisions may be made.

  19. Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

  20. Development of a model to guide decision making in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis multidisciplinary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogden, Anne; Greenfield, David; Nugus, Peter; Kiernan, Matthew C

    2015-10-01

    Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) face numerous decisions for symptom management and quality of life. Models of decision making in chronic disease and cancer care are insufficient for the complex and changing needs of patients with ALS . The aim was to examine the question: how can decision making that is both effective and patient-centred be enacted in ALS multidisciplinary care? Fifty-four respondents (32 health professionals, 14 patients and eight carers) from two specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinics participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed, coded and analysed thematically. Comparison of stakeholder perspectives revealed six key themes of ALS decision making. These were the decision-making process; patient-centred focus; timing and planning; information sources; engagement with specialized ALS services; and access to non-specialized services. A model, embedded in the specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinic, was derived to guide patient decision making. The model is cyclic, with four stages: 'Participant Engagement'; 'Option Information'; 'Option Deliberation'; and 'Decision Implementation'. Effective and patient-centred decision making is enhanced by the structure of the specialized ALS clinic, which promotes patients' symptom management and quality of life goals. However, patient and carer engagement in ALS decision making is tested by the dynamic nature of ALS, and patient and family distress. Our model optimizes patient-centred decision making, by incorporating patients' cyclic decision-making patterns and facilitating carer inclusion in decision processes. The model captures the complexities of patient-centred decision making in ALS. The framework can assist patients and carers, health professionals, researchers and policymakers in this challenging disease environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2014-01-01

    WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.

  2. Procedural Personas for Player Decision Modeling and Procedural Content Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer

    2016-01-01

    ." These methods for constructing procedural personas are then integrated with existing procedural content generation systems, acting as critics that shape the output of these systems, optimizing generated content for different personas and by extension, different kinds of players and their decision making styles....... This thesis explores methods for creating low-complexity, easily interpretable, generative AI agents for use in game and simulation design. Based on insights from decision theory and behavioral economics, the thesis investigates how player decision making styles may be defined, operationalised, and measured...... in specific games. It further explores how simple utility functions, easily defined and changed by game designers, can be used to construct agents expressing a variety of decision making styles within a game, using a variety of contemporary AI approaches, naming the resulting agents "Procedural Personas...

  3. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  4. Formal Models of Dilemmas in Social Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    iiapj ■ I" ’""i Unclassified i ■ > v. u ). Ant5-Group Decision Commons Dilemma Competition Cooperation Social Decision-making (PAGE...proposed a simple algebraic structure for the commons dilemma as expounded by Hardin (1960). (This dilemma is based on a somewhat minor point made by...the total wealth has bMlk reduced by 100 lbs., as he., -he wealth of each of the other individuals. This commons dilemma , gain to self with loss

  5. Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G. [Programa de Graduados e Investigacion en Ingenieria Electrica. Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Instituto Tecnologico de Morelia. Av. Tecnologico 1500, Col. Lomas de Santiaguito 58120. Morelia, Mich. (Mexico); Sheble, Gerald B. [INESC Porto, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto (Portugal)

    2010-07-15

    This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

  6. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  7. Simulation modeling to derive the value-of-information for risky animal disease-import decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Disney, W Terry; Peters, Mark A

    2003-11-12

    Simulation modeling can be used in aiding decision-makers in deciding when to invest in additional research and when the risky animal disease-import decision should go forward. Simulation modeling to evaluate value-of-information (VOI) techniques provides a robust, objective and transparent framework for assisting decision-makers in making risky animal and animal product decisions. In this analysis, the hypothetical risk from poultry disease in chicken-meat imports was modeled. Economic criteria were used to quantify alternative confidence-increasing decisions regarding potential import testing and additional research requirements. In our hypothetical example, additional information about poultry disease in the exporting country (either by requiring additional export-flock surveillance that results in no sign of disease, or by conducting additional research into lack of disease transmittal through chicken-meat ingestion) captured >75% of the value-of-information attainable regarding the chicken-meat-import decision.

  8. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  9. Decision Support Model for Introduction of Gamification Solution Using AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangkyun Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Gamification means the use of various elements of game design in nongame contexts including workplace collaboration, marketing, education, military, and medical services. Gamification is effective for both improving workplace productivity and motivating employees. However, introduction of gamification is not easy because the planning and implementation processes of gamification are very complicated and it needs interdisciplinary knowledge such as information systems, organization behavior, and human psychology. Providing a systematic decision making method for gamification process is the purpose of this paper. This paper suggests the decision criteria for selection of gamification platform to support a systematic decision making process for managements. The criteria are derived from previous works on gamification, introduction of information systems, and analytic hierarchy process. The weights of decision criteria are calculated through a survey by the professionals on game, information systems, and business administration. The analytic hierarchy process is used to derive the weights. The decision criteria and weights provided in this paper could support the managements to make a systematic decision for selection of gamification platform.

  10. Decision support model for introduction of gamification solution using AHP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sangkyun

    2014-01-01

    Gamification means the use of various elements of game design in nongame contexts including workplace collaboration, marketing, education, military, and medical services. Gamification is effective for both improving workplace productivity and motivating employees. However, introduction of gamification is not easy because the planning and implementation processes of gamification are very complicated and it needs interdisciplinary knowledge such as information systems, organization behavior, and human psychology. Providing a systematic decision making method for gamification process is the purpose of this paper. This paper suggests the decision criteria for selection of gamification platform to support a systematic decision making process for managements. The criteria are derived from previous works on gamification, introduction of information systems, and analytic hierarchy process. The weights of decision criteria are calculated through a survey by the professionals on game, information systems, and business administration. The analytic hierarchy process is used to derive the weights. The decision criteria and weights provided in this paper could support the managements to make a systematic decision for selection of gamification platform.

  11. Beyond dual-process models: A categorisation of processes underlying intuitive judgement and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glöckner, A.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Intuitive-automatic processes are crucial for making judgements and decisions. The fascinating complexity of these processes has attracted many decision researchers, prompting them to start investigating intuition empirically and to develop numerous models. Dual-process models assume a clear distinc

  12. PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR THE STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE ROMANIAN ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a prescriptive model for the strategic decision-making from the Romanianenterprises. Within the paper there will be described the phases implied in solving a strategicproblem. Finally, there will be presented a strategic decision from a Romanian enterprise, elaboratedon the base of the model.

  13. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  14. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  15. A new validation-assessment tool for health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mauskopf, J.; Vemer, P.; Voorn, van G.A.K.; Corro Ramos, I.

    2014-01-01

    A validation-assessment tool is being developed for decision makers to transparently and consistently evaluate the validation status of different health-economic decision models. It is designed as a list of validation techniques covering all relevant aspects of model validation to be filled in by

  16. A Review of Contemporary Ethical Decision-Making Models for Mental Health Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Perry C.

    2015-01-01

    Mental health professionals are faced with increasingly complex ethical decisions that are impacted by culture, personal and professional values, and the contexts in which they and their clients inhabit. This article presents the reasons for developing and implementing multiple ethical decision making models and reviews four models that address…

  17. Opinion:the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    David E Calkin; Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

  18. Effective decision-making model for hi-tech new product development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王哲; 于渤; 徐殿国

    2003-01-01

    In order to identify the effective decision-making factors at the individual NPD project manager level,a new effective decision-making model has been established by introducing the concept of decision-making effectiveness, analyzing the role of expertise, and identifying the major role of expertise and insight with respect to the interfaces between a new product, an organization, customers, technologies and regulations, for the study of the effective decision-making facilitators and inhibitors for a NPD project. The analysis of the unique task conditions for individual decision-makers shows that perceived complexity, uncertainty and time pressure have their negative effect on the effective decision-making process. It is concluded that the flexible, balanced and appropriate use of rational analysis, common sense and intuition is a key effective decision-making factor, and the task conditions.

  19. A multicriteria decision making model for assessment and selection of an ERP in a logistics context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Teresa; Ferreira, Fernanda A.

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this work is to apply a methodology of decision support based on a multicriteria decision analyses (MCDA) model that allows the assessment and selection of an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in a Portuguese logistics company by Group Decision Maker (GDM). A Decision Support system (DSS) that implements a MCDA - Multicriteria Methodology for the Assessment and Selection of Information Systems / Information Technologies (MMASSI / IT) is used based on its features and facility to change and adapt the model to a given scope. Using this DSS it was obtained the information system that best suited to the decisional context, being this result evaluated through a sensitivity and robustness analysis.

  20. Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian N. Marewski

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified at varying levels of detail, making it difficult to compare them. We provide a methodological primer on how detailed cognitive architectures such as ACT-R allow remedying these problems. To make our point, we address a controversy, namely, whether noncompensatory or compensatory processes better describe how people make decisions from the accessibility of memories. We specify 39 models of accessibility-based decision processes in ACT-R, including the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and various other popular noncompensatory and compensatory decision models. Additionally, to illustrate how such models can be tested, we conduct a model comparison, fitting the models to one experiment and letting them generalize to another. Behavioral data are best accounted for by race models. These race models embody the noncompensatory recognition heuristic and compensatory models as a race between competing processes, dissolving the dichotomy between existing decision models.

  1. Type III Seesaw and Dark Matter in a Supersymmetric Left-Right Model

    CERN Document Server

    Borah, Debasish

    2009-01-01

    We propose a new supersymmetric left right model with Higgs doublets carrying odd B-L charge, higgs bidoublet and heavy Higgs triplets with zero B-L charge and a set of sterile neutrinos which are singlet under the gauge group. We show that spontaneous parity violation can be achieved naturally in this model and the neutrino masses arise from the so called type III seesaw mechanism. We also discuss the possible phenomenology in the context of neutrino masses and dark matter.

  2. Global Analysis of a Delayed Impulsive Lotka-Volterra Model with Holling III Type Functional Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A delayed impulsive Lotka-Volterra model with Holing III type functional response was established. With the help of Mawhin’s Continuation Theorem in coincidence degree theory, a sufficient condition is found for the existence of positive periodic solutions of the system under consideration. By applying the comparison theorem and constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional, the permanence and global attractivity of the model are proved. Two numerical simulations are also given to illustrate our main results.

  3. Searching the charged Higgs boson of the type III two Higss doublet model

    CERN Document Server

    Cardenas, H

    2008-01-01

    In the framework of the Two Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) type III appears two charged Higgs boson and recently there are experimental reports from D0 and CDF collaborations searching a particular signature of new physics. We present a review of the analisys done in the region $M_{H^+}>m_t$ by D0 collaboration and we use the ratio $R_\\sigma$ for the region $M_{H^+} < m_t$ in different scenarios of space parameter of this model.

  4. The UNITE-DSS Modelling System: Risk Simulation and Decision Conferencing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    This presentation introduces the brand new approach of integrating risk simulation and decision conferencing within transport project appraisal (UNITE-DSS model). The modelling approach is divided into various modules respectively as point estimates (cost-benefit analysis), stochastic interval...

  5. Models for Rational Decision Making. Analysis of Literature and Selected Bibliography. Analysis and Bibliography Series, No. 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, John S.

    This review analyzes the trend in educational decision making to replace hierarchical authority structures with more rational models for decision making drawn from management science. Emphasis is also placed on alternatives to a hierarchical decision-making model, including governing models, union models, and influence models. A 54-item…

  6. A Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling approach to selection of estimation techniques for fitting extreme floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duckstein, L.; Bobée, B.; Ashkar, F.

    1991-09-01

    The problem of fitting a probability distribution, here log-Pearson Type III distribution, to extreme floods is considered from the point of view of two numerical and three non-numerical criteria. The six techniques of fitting considered include classical techniques (maximum likelihood, moments of logarithms of flows) and new methods such as mixed moments and the generalized method of moments developed by two of the co-authors. The latter method consists of fitting the distribution using moments of different order, in particular the SAM method (Sundry Averages Method) uses the moments of order 0 (geometric mean), 1 (arithmetic mean), -1 (harmonic mean) and leads to a smaller variance of the parameters. The criteria used to select the method of parameter estimation are: - the two statistical criteria of mean square error and bias; - the two computational criteria of program availability and ease of use; - the user-related criterion of acceptability. These criteria are transformed into value functions or fuzzy set membership functions and then three Multiple Criteria Decision Modelling (MCDM) techniques, namely, composite programming, ELECTRE, and MCQA, are applied to rank the estimation techniques.

  7. Transferable tight binding model for strained group IV and III-V heterostructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yaohua; Povolotskyi, Micheal; Kubis, Tillmann; Boykin, Timothy; Klimeck, Gerhard

    Modern semiconductor devices have reached critical device dimensions in the range of several nanometers. For reliable prediction of device performance, it is critical to have a numerical efficient model that are transferable to material interfaces. In this work, we present an empirical tight binding (ETB) model with transferable parameters for strained IV and III-V group semiconductors. The ETB model is numerically highly efficient as it make use of an orthogonal sp3d5s* basis set with nearest neighbor inter-atomic interactions. The ETB parameters are generated from HSE06 hybrid functional calculations. Band structures of strained group IV and III-V materials by ETB model are in good agreement with corresponding HSE06 calculations. Furthermore, the ETB model is applied to strained superlattices which consist of group IV and III-V elements. The ETB model turns out to be transferable to nano-scale hetero-structure. The ETB band structures agree with the corresponding HSE06 results in the whole Brillouin zone. The ETB band gaps of superlattices with common cations or common anions have discrepancies within 0.05eV.

  8. Decision-Making Models with Sets of Strategies for Applications to Individuals and Groups in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Wanda E.

    Three decision-making models that have applications for college presidents and administrators are reviewed. While both individual and group decision-making are addressed, emphasis is placed on the importance of group decisions on institutional policy planning. The model of Edmund M. Burke (1979) presents specific decision-making strategies in…

  9. Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.; Jorgenson, D.W.; Stoker, T.M.

    1981-03-01

    This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements are developed in the report on the model specification).

  10. Decision making under uncertainty in a spiking neural network model of the basal ganglia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Héricé, Charlotte; Khalil, Radwa; Moftah, Marie; Boraud, Thomas; Guthrie, Martin; Garenne, André

    2016-12-01

    The mechanisms of decision-making and action selection are generally thought to be under the control of parallel cortico-subcortical loops connecting back to distinct areas of cortex through the basal ganglia and processing motor, cognitive and limbic modalities of decision-making. We have used these properties to develop and extend a connectionist model at a spiking neuron level based on a previous rate model approach. This model is demonstrated on decision-making tasks that have been studied in primates and the electrophysiology interpreted to show that the decision is made in two steps. To model this, we have used two parallel loops, each of which performs decision-making based on interactions between positive and negative feedback pathways. This model is able to perform two-level decision-making as in primates. We show here that, before learning, synaptic noise is sufficient to drive the decision-making process and that, after learning, the decision is based on the choice that has proven most likely to be rewarded. The model is then submitted to lesion tests, reversal learning and extinction protocols. We show that, under these conditions, it behaves in a consistent manner and provides predictions in accordance with observed experimental data.

  11. Modeling of Threading Dislocation Density Reduction in Porous III-Nitride Layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artemiev, Dmitry M.; Orlova, Tatiana S.; Bougrov, Vladislav E.; Odnoblyudov, Maxim A.; Romanov, Alexei E.

    2015-05-01

    In this work, we report on the results of the theoretical analysis of threading dislocation (TD) density reduction in porous III-nitride layers grown in polar orientation. The reaction-kinetics model originally developed for describing TD evolution in growing bulk layers has been expanded to the case of the porous layer. The developed model takes into account TD inclinations under the influence of the pores as well as trapping TDs into the pores. It is demonstrated that both these factors increase the probability of dislocation reactions thus reducing the total density of TDs. The mean pore diameter acts as an effective interaction radius for the reactions among TDs. The model includes the main experimentally observed features of TD evolution in porous III-nitride layers.

  12. An interval number-based multiple attribute bid-decision making model for substation equipments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Lili

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available By analyzing the characteristics of public bidding for substation equipments and combining with the research methods of multiple attribute decision-making problems, a multiple attribute bid-decision making model is presented. Firstly, the weight of interval numbers is specified by using the interval numbers theory and entropy theory. Secondly, the deviation degree of decision-making scheme is proposed. Then the schemes are sorted. A typical case is analyzed based on the above-mentioned.

  13. Game Theory Model and Equilibrium Analysis of Peasant's Production Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi Xue-lian; Zhang Ya-zhuo; Meng Jun

    2012-01-01

    Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government's positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants' income

  14. Procedural Personas for Player Decision Modeling and Procedural Content Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer

    2016-01-01

    in specific games. It further explores how simple utility functions, easily defined and changed by game designers, can be used to construct agents expressing a variety of decision making styles within a game, using a variety of contemporary AI approaches, naming the resulting agents "Procedural Personas......." These methods for constructing procedural personas are then integrated with existing procedural content generation systems, acting as critics that shape the output of these systems, optimizing generated content for different personas and by extension, different kinds of players and their decision making styles...

  15. A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Edward Y.; FENG Ying; HIGGISION James

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and Sharpe's rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institutional or individual investor can combine Markowitz's portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe's rule and Value-at-Risk(VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the generalized Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe's rule improve decision making for investment.

  16. Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Yi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

  17. Effects of modeling decisions on cold region hydrological model performance: snow, soil and streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musselman, Keith; Clark, Martyn; Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Nijssen, Bart; Arnold, Jeffrey

    2017-04-01

    Cold regions are characterized by intense spatial gradients in climate, vegetation and soil properties that determine the complex spatiotemporal patterns of snowpack evolution, frozen soil dynamics, catchment connectivity, and streamflow. These spatial gradients pose unique challenges for hydrological models, including: 1) how the spatial variability of the physical processes are best represented across a hierarchy of scales, and 2) what algorithms and parameter sets best describe the biophysical and hydrological processes at the spatial scale of interest. To address these topics, we apply the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to simulate hydrological processes at the Caribou - Poker Creeks Research Watershed in the Alaskan sub-arctic Boreal forest. The site is characterized by numerous gauged headwater catchments ranging in size from 5 sq. km to 106 sq. km with varying extents (3% to 53%) of discontinuous permafrost that permits a multi-scale paired watershed analysis of the hydrological impacts of frozen soils. We evaluate the effects of model decisions on the skill of SUMMA to simulate observed snow and soil dynamics, and the spatial integration of these processes as catchment streamflow. Decisions such as the number of soil layers, total soil column depth, and vertical soil discretization are shown to have profound impacts on the simulation of seasonal active layer dynamics. Decisions on the spatial organization (lateral connectivity, representation of riparian response units, and the spatial discretization of the hydrological landscape) are shown to be as important as accurate snowpack and soil process representation in the simulation of streamflow. The work serves to better inform hydrological model decisions for cold region hydrologic evaluation and to improve predictive capacity for water resource planning.

  18. Prisoner's Dilemma as a Model for Understanding Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Janet D.

    1987-01-01

    Describes two classroom demonstrations, based on the prisoner's dilemma, which illustrate some elements of decision making. Examines how students either cooperate or take advantage of one another, and discusses the use of this activity as an introduction to various concepts in psychology and other social sciences. (GEA)

  19. Modeling Hospital Discharge and Placement Decision Making: Whither the Elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, William F.; Pelham, Anabel O.

    This paper examines the hospital discharge decision making process for elderly patients, based on observations of the operations of a long term care agency, the California Multipurpose Senior Services Project. The analysis is divided into four components: actors, factors, processes, and strategy critique. The first section discusses the major…

  20. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  1. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; de Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  2. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Morell, M.; Todorovik, O.; Dimitrov, D.; Selenica, A.; Spirkovski, Z.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the

  3. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  4. A Data Model for Algorithmic Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cailloux, O.; Tervonen, T.; Verhaegen, B.; Picalausa, F.

    2014-01-01

    Various software tools implementing multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have appeared over the last decades. Although MCDA methods share common features, most of the implementing software have been developed independently from scratch. Majority of the tools have a proprietary storage

  5. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, L.J.J.; Romph, de E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various con

  6. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various con

  7. Soil Organic Matter Mapping by Decision Tree Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Bin; ZHANG Xing-Gang; WANG Fan; WANG Ren-Chao

    2005-01-01

    Based on a case study of Longyou County, Zhejiang Province, the decision tree, a data mining method, was used to analyze the relationships between soil organic matter (SOM) and other environmental and satellite sensing spatial data.The decision tree associated SOM content with some extensive easily observable landscape attributes, such as landform,geology, land use, and remote sensing images, thus transforming the SOM-related information into a clear, quantitative,landscape factor-associated regular system. This system could be used to predict continuous SOM spatial distribution.By analyzing factors such as elevation, geological unit, soil type, land use, remotely sensed data, upslope contributing area, slope, aspect, planform curvature, and profile curvature, the decision tree could predict distribution of soil organic matter levels. Among these factors, elevation, land use, aspect, soil type, the first principle component of bitemporal Landsat TM, and upslope contributing area were considered the most important variables for predicting SOM. Results of the prediction between SOM content and landscape types sorted by the decision tree showed a close relationship with an accuracy of 81.1%.

  8. A Data Model for Algorithmic Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cailloux, O.; Tervonen, T.; Verhaegen, B.; Picalausa, F.

    2014-01-01

    Various software tools implementing multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have appeared over the last decades. Although MCDA methods share common features, most of the implementing software have been developed independently from scratch. Majority of the tools have a proprietary storage

  9. Aiding human reliance decision making using computational models of trust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maanen, P.P. van; Klos, T.; Dongen, C.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This paper involves a human-agent system in which there is an operator charged with a pattern recognition task, using an automated decision aid. The objective is to make this human-agent system operate as effectively as possible. Effectiveness is gained by an increase of appropriate reliance on the

  10. Architectural considerations for modeling cognitive-emotional decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lotens, W.A.; Cain, B.

    2013-01-01

    There are numerous conceptual similarities between affective and rational decision making functions despite the differences between the emotional and cognitive systems. Aspects of emotion may be considered as a concurrent stream of information processing that is coupled with explicit, rational infor

  11. Assessing Inter-Model Continuity Between the Section II and Section III Conceptualizations of Borderline Personality Disorder in DSM-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Chloe M; Simms, Leonard J

    2017-03-02

    DSM-5 includes 2 competing models of borderline personality disorder (BPD) in Sections II and III. Empirical comparisons between these models are required to understand and improve intermodel continuity. We compared Section III BPD traits to Section II BPD criteria assessed via semistructured interviews in 455 current/recent psychiatric patients using correlation and regression analyses, and also evaluated the incremental predictive power of other Section III traits. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that self-harm would incrementally predict BPD Criterion 5 over the Section III traits. Results supported Section III BPD traits as an adequate representation of traditional BPD symptomatology, although modifications that would increase intermodel continuity were identified. Finally, we found support for the incremental validity of suspiciousness, anhedonia, perceptual dysregulation, and self-harm, suggesting possible gaps in the Section III PD trait definitions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. A new fit-for-purpose model testing framework: Decision Crash Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James

    2016-04-01

    Decision-makers in water resources are often burdened with selecting appropriate multi-million dollar strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate or land use change. Unfortunately, the suitability of existing hydrologic simulation models to accurately inform decision-making is in doubt because the testing procedures used to evaluate model utility (i.e., model validation) are insufficient. For example, many authors have identified that a good standard framework for model testing called the Klemes Crash Tests (KCTs), which are the classic model validation procedures from Klemeš (1986) that Andréassian et al. (2009) rename as KCTs, have yet to become common practice in hydrology. Furthermore, Andréassian et al. (2009) claim that the progression of hydrological science requires widespread use of KCT and the development of new crash tests. Existing simulation (not forecasting) model testing procedures such as KCTs look backwards (checking for consistency between simulations and past observations) rather than forwards (explicitly assessing if the model is likely to support future decisions). We propose a fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing framework based upon the concept of fit-for-purpose model testing that we call Decision Crash Tests or DCTs. Key DCT elements are i) the model purpose (i.e., decision the model is meant to support) must be identified so that model outputs can be mapped to management decisions ii) the framework evaluates not just the selected hydrologic model but the entire suite of model-building decisions associated with model discretization, calibration etc. The framework is constructed to directly and quantitatively evaluate model suitability. The DCT framework is applied to a model building case study on the Grand River in Ontario, Canada. A hypothetical binary decision scenario is analysed (upgrade or not upgrade the existing flood control structure) under two different sets of model building

  13. Solution chemistry of Mo(III) and Mo(IV): Thermodynamic foundation for modeling localized corrosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Peiming [OLI Systems Inc., 108 American Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 (United States); Wilson, Leslie L.; Wesolowski, David J.; Rosenqvist, Joergen [Chemical Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6110 (United States); Anderko, Andrzej [OLI Systems Inc., 108 American Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 (United States)], E-mail: aanderko@olisystems.com

    2010-05-15

    To investigate the behavior of molybdenum dissolution products in systems that approximate localized corrosion environments, solubility of Mo(III) in equilibrium with solid MoO{sub 2} has been determined at 80 deg. C as a function of solution acidity, chloride concentration and partial pressure of hydrogen. The measurements indicate a strong increase in solubility with acidity and chloride concentration and a weak effect of hydrogen partial pressure. The obtained results have been combined with literature data for systems containing Mo(III), Mo(IV), and Mo(VI) in solutions to develop a comprehensive thermodynamic model of aqueous molybdenum chemistry. The model is based on a previously developed framework for simulating the properties of electrolyte systems ranging from infinite dilution to solid saturation or fused salt limit. To reproduce the measurements, the model assumes the presence of a chloride complex of Mo(III) (i.e., MoCl{sup 2+}) and hydrolyzed species (MoOH{sup 2+}, Mo(OH){sub 2}{sup +}, and Mo(OH){sub 3}{sup 0}) in addition to the Mo{sup 3+} ion. The model generally reproduces the experimental data within experimental scattering and provides a tool for predicting the phase behavior and speciation in complex, concentrated aqueous solutions. Thus, it provides a foundation for simulating the behavior of molybdenum species in localized corrosion environments.

  14. A mouse model of mitochondrial complex III dysfunction induced by myxothiazol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davoudi, Mina [Pediatrics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund, Lund University, Lund 22185 (Sweden); Kallijärvi, Jukka; Marjavaara, Sanna [Folkhälsan Research Center, Biomedicum Helsinki, University of Helsinki, 00014 (Finland); Kotarsky, Heike; Hansson, Eva [Pediatrics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund, Lund University, Lund 22185 (Sweden); Levéen, Per [Pediatrics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund, Lund University, Lund 22185 (Sweden); Folkhälsan Research Center, Biomedicum Helsinki, University of Helsinki, 00014 (Finland); Fellman, Vineta, E-mail: Vineta.Fellman@med.lu.se [Pediatrics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund, Lund University, Lund 22185 (Sweden); Folkhälsan Research Center, Biomedicum Helsinki, University of Helsinki, 00014 (Finland); Children’s Hospital, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki 00029 (Finland)

    2014-04-18

    Highlights: • Reversible chemical inhibition of complex III in wild type mouse. • Myxothiazol causes decreased complex III activity in mouse liver. • The model is useful for therapeutic trials to improve mitochondrial function. - Abstract: Myxothiazol is a respiratory chain complex III (CIII) inhibitor that binds to the ubiquinol oxidation site Qo of CIII. It blocks electron transfer from ubiquinol to cytochrome b and thus inhibits CIII activity. It has been utilized as a tool in studies of respiratory chain function in in vitro and cell culture models. We developed a mouse model of biochemically induced and reversible CIII inhibition using myxothiazol. We administered myxothiazol intraperitoneally at a dose of 0.56 mg/kg to C57Bl/J6 mice every 24 h and assessed CIII activity, histology, lipid content, supercomplex formation, and gene expression in the livers of the mice. A reversible CIII activity decrease to 50% of control value occurred at 2 h post-injection. At 74 h only minor histological changes in the liver were found, supercomplex formation was preserved and no significant changes in the expression of genes indicating hepatotoxicity or inflammation were found. Thus, myxothiazol-induced CIII inhibition can be induced in mice for four days in a row without overt hepatotoxicity or lethality. This model could be utilized in further studies of respiratory chain function and pharmacological approaches to mitochondrial hepatopathies.

  15. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.

  16. A neurocognitive model of the ethical decision-making process: implications for study and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Scott J

    2006-07-01

    The field of business ethics is entrenched in a cognitive approach that portrays the ethical decision-making process as a completely deliberate and reasoned exercise. In light of growing concerns about the veracity of this approach, I build upon current knowledge of how the brain functions to present a neurocognitive model of ethical decision making. The model suggests that ethical decision making involves 2 interrelated yet functionally distinct cycles, a reflexive pattern matching cycle and a higher order conscious reasoning cycle, and thereby describes not only reasoned analysis, but also the intuitive and retrospective aspects of ethical decision making. The model sparks research in new areas, holds significant implications for the study of ethical decision making, and provides suggestions for improving ethical behavior in organizations.

  17. A Model Study of the Photochemical Fate of As(III in Paddy-Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Carena

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The APEX (Aqueous Photochemistry of Environmentally-occurring Xenobiotics software previously developed by one of us was used to model the photochemistry of As(III in paddy-field water, allowing a comparison with biotic processes. The model included key paddy-water variables, such as the shielding effect of the rice canopy on incident sunlight and its monthly variations, water pH, and the photochemical parameters of the chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM occurring in paddy fields. The half-life times (t1/2 of As(III photooxidation to As(V would be ~20–30 days in May. In contrast, the photochemical oxidation of As(III would be much slower in June and July due to rice-canopy shading of radiation because of plant growth, despite higher sunlight irradiance. At pH < 8 the photooxidation of As(III would mainly be accounted for by reaction with transient species produced by irradiated CDOM (here represented by the excited triplet states 3CDOM*, neglecting the possibly more important reactions with poorly known species such as the phenoxy radicals and, to a lesser extent, with the hydroxyl radicals (HO•. However, the carbonate radicals (CO3•− could be key photooxidants at pH > 8.5 provided that the paddy-water 3CDOM* is sufficiently reactive toward the oxidation of CO32−. In particular, if paddy-water 3CDOM* oxidizes the carbonate anion with a second-order reaction rate constant near (or higher than 106 M−1·s−1, the photooxidation of As(III could be quite fast at pH > 8.5. Such pH conditions can be produced by elevated photosynthetic activity that consumes dissolved CO2.

  18. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  19. Enabling Integrated Decision Making for Electronic-Commerce by Modelling an Enterprise's Sharable Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Henry M.

    2000-01-01

    An enterprise model, a computational model of knowledge about an enterprise, is a useful tool for integrated decision-making by e-commerce suppliers and customers. Sharable knowledge, once represented in an enterprise model, can be integrated by the modeled enterprise's e-commerce partners. Presents background on enterprise modeling, followed by…

  20. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popovici Ioana

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

  1. A Strategic Model for the Business Communication Field Training Decision in the Commercial Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannis, Seimenis; Damianos, Sakas P.; Nikolaos, Konstantopoulos

    2009-08-01

    This article examines the factors that affect the decision making of the training managers responsible in case of business communication field as they have emerged from the study of the decision that have taken place in the commercial sector in this specific Greek market. Previous researches have indicated the participation of a number of variables in this kind of decision. The aim of this article is to locate the main factors which determine, in the commercial sector the decision for the training of the employees in the field of business communication. On the basis of quality research, dynamic simulation model have been created for some of this main factors.

  2. Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Huang

    Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

  3. Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and Addressing Impacts from Port Expansion and Traffic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include ...

  4. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  5. Assessing the Utility of the Willingness/Prototype Model in Predicting Help-Seeking Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Joseph H.; Vogel, David L.

    2013-01-01

    Prior research on professional psychological help-seeking behavior has operated on the assumption that the decision to seek help is based on intentional and reasoned processes. However, research on the dual-process prototype/willingness model (PWM; Gerrard, Gibbons, Houlihan, Stock, & Pomery, 2008) suggests health-related decisions may also…

  6. Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization : a Markov decision-analytic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, Lobke M.; Broekmans, Frank J. M.; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). Design: A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Setting: Decision analytic framework. Patient(s): Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged

  7. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  8. A Multilevel Model of Minority Opinion Expression and Team Decision-Making Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Guihyun; DeShon, Richard P.

    2010-01-01

    The consideration of minority opinions when making team decisions is an important factor that contributes to team effectiveness. A multilevel model of minority opinion influence in decision-making teams is developed to address the conditions that relate to adequate consideration of minority opinions. Using a sample of 57 teams working on a…

  9. A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

    2002-08-01

    The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

  10. A model of axial heterostructure formation in III-V semiconductor nanowires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovskii, V. G.

    2016-03-01

    A kinetic model of the formation of axial heterostructures in nanocrystalline wires (nanowires, NWs) of III-V semiconductor compounds growing according to the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) mechanism is proposed. A general system of nonstationary equations for effective fluxes of two elements of the same group (e.g., group III) is formulated that allows the composition profile of a heterostructure to be calculated as a function of the coordinate and epitaxial growth conditions, including the flux of a group V element. Characteristic times of the composition relaxation, which determine the sharpness of the heteroboundary (heterointerface), are determined in the linear approximation. A temporal interruption (arrest) of fluxes during the switching of elements for a period exceeding these relaxation times must increase sharpness of the heteroboundary. Model calculations of the composition profile in a double GaAs/InAs/GaAs axial heterostructure have been performed for various NW radii.

  11. Aspect Oriented Decision Making Model for Byzantine Agreement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ramachandran

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The main aim of this research study is to develop an enhanced strategy for decision making whether to commit or rollback a request to a Web service in the presence of Byzantine faults using aspects. The proposed study extends the Lamport’s algorithm for Byzantine agreement to have an effective decision while handling the service request. When the service is initiated based on the request, its execution behaviour is being monitored before, after and at the time of execution and being handled with aspect concerns to provide the corresponding responses as input to the Lamport’s Byzantine agreement algorithm. The decision on the client requests is based on the outcome of the aspect advices before, after and around the execution of the services. Approach: This approach identifies the inception of the process which starts to exhibit abnormal behaviour before, after or during the execution of the service and instigates that helps in resolving the faulty service and identifies the root cause of the problem to rectify it. Aspect oriented advices do not require any external invocation as it executes with the service and hence no additional overhead involved in processing the service request. Results: In the existing methodology only the around advice decision is considered for reaching an agreement in the presence of Byzantine faults. An enhancement in the decision making process is proposed by including the state of the services: before, after and around advices of the aspects. Conclusion: The obtained experimental results based on the proposed methodology depict that the performance measure, Round Trip Time is slightly increased when compared with the existing Lamport’s algorithm for Byzantine Agreement and this performance overhead is not a major concern as the proposed approach produces an enhanced decision by considering aspect concerns and also determines the origin of the fault. The change in execution behaviour of Byzantine

  12. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  13. Physics-based multiscale modeling of III-nitride light emitters

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Xiangyu

    2016-01-01

    The application of computer simulations to scientific and engineering problems has evolved to an established phase over the last decades. In the field of semiconductor device physics, Technology CAD (TCAD) has been regarded as an indispensable tool for the interpretation and prediction of device behavior. More specifically, TCAD modeling and simulation of nanostructured III-nitride light emitters still have challenging problems and is currently a topic under active research. This thesis devot...

  14. Anisotropic Dark Energy Bianchi Type III Cosmological Models in Brans Dicke Theory of Gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Shamir, M Farasat; 10.1139/P2012-007

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to explore the solutions of Bianchi type $III$ cosmological model in Brans Dicke theory of gravity in the background of anisotropic dark energy. We use the assumption of constant deceleration parameter and power law relation between scalar field $\\phi$ and scale factor $a$ to find the solutions. The physical behavior of the solutions has been discussed using some physical quantities.

  15. A Review of Decision Support Models for Global Distribution Network Design and Future Model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reich, Juri; Kinra, Aseem; Kotzab, Herbert

    not offer a comprehensive method that is able to solve the problem in one single decision making process considering all relevant goals and factors. Thus, we attempt to create such a model using existing methods as building blocks, namely mixedinteger linear programming and the analytical hierarchy process.......We look at the global distribution network design problem and the requirements to solve it. This problem typically involves conflicting goals and a magnitude of interdependent input factors, described by qualitative and quantitative information. Our literature review shows that current models do...

  16. Perbedaan Kekuatan Kompresi Gipsum Tipe III Pabrikan dan Daur Ulang serta Gipsum Tipe III Daur Ulang dengan Penambahan Larutan Zink Sulfat 4% sebagai Bahan Model Kerja Gigitiruan

    OpenAIRE

    Pitri, Yulindia

    2015-01-01

    Gipsum di bidang kedokteran gigi berasal dari bahan Kalsium Sulfat Dihidrat murni kemudian mengalami kalsinasi menjadi Kalsium Sulfat Hemihidrat. Gipsum mempunyai sifat reversibel sehingga dapat dilakukan proses daur ulang. Gipsum yang sering digunakan adalah gipsum tipe III menurut spesifikasi American Dental Association (ADA) dan digunakan sebagai bahan model kerja gigitiruan. Gipsum sebagai bahan model kerja gigitiruan yang digunakan harus mempunyai kekuatan kompresi yang tinggi agar dihas...

  17. An Algebraic Graphical Model for Decision with Uncertainties, Feasibilities, and Utilities

    CERN Document Server

    Pralet, C; Verfaillie, G; 10.1613/jair.2151

    2011-01-01

    Numerous formalisms and dedicated algorithms have been designed in the last decades to model and solve decision making problems. Some formalisms, such as constraint networks, can express "simple" decision problems, while others are designed to take into account uncertainties, unfeasible decisions, and utilities. Even in a single formalism, several variants are often proposed to model different types of uncertainty (probability, possibility...) or utility (additive or not). In this article, we introduce an algebraic graphical model that encompasses a large number of such formalisms: (1) we first adapt previous structures from Friedman, Chu and Halpern for representing uncertainty, utility, and expected utility in order to deal with generic forms of sequential decision making; (2) on these structures, we then introduce composite graphical models that express information via variables linked by "local" functions, thanks to conditional independence; (3) on these graphical models, we finally define a simple class ...

  18. Applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Tao; Kaminski, Miroslaw Lech

    2016-09-01

    In design and operation of floating offshore structures, one has to avoid fatigue failures caused by action of ocean waves. The aim of this paper is to investigate the applicability of WaveWatch-III wave model to fatigue assessment of offshore floating structures. The applicability was investigated for Bluewaters' FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading) which had been turret moored at Sable field for half a decade. The waves were predicted as sea-state time series consisting of one wind sea and one swell. The predicted waves were compared with wave data obtained from ERA-interim and buoy measurements. Furthermore, the fatigue calculations were also carried out for main deck and side shell locations. It has been concluded that predicted fatigue damages of main deck using WaveWatch-III are in a very good agreement regardless of differences in predicted wind waves and swells caused by differences in wave system partitioning. When compared to buoy measurements, the model underestimates fatigue damages of side shell by approximately 30 %. The reason for that has been found in wider directional spreading of actual waves. The WaveWatch-III wave model has been found suitable for the fatigue assessment. However, more attention should be paid on relative wave directionality, wave system partitioning and uncertainty analysis in further development.

  19. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    OpenAIRE

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various control strategies and enhance the performance of the overall network. By taking proactive action deploying traffic management measures, congestion may be prevented or its effects limited. An approach...

  20. Superfund Record of Decision (EPA Region 9): Intel Santa Clara III Superfund site, Santa Clara, CA. (First remedial action), September 1990. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-20

    The Intel (Santa Clara III) site includes a plant that performs quality control testing of chemicals and electrical testing of semiconductors in Santa Clara, Santa Clara County, California. The site is in a predominantly industrial area, and overlies a major ground regional source of ground water, the Santa Clara Valley ground water basin. In 1982, the State conducted a leak detection program, which identified VOC contamination in an onsite shallow aquifer. Possible sources for the contamination may include the accidental dumping of solvents into an acid neutralization tank, accidental spills near an above-ground solvent storage facility, and cleaning of solvent-contaminated pipes during plant construction. It has been determined that no onsite source is presently contributing to ground water contamination. Since 1985, Intel has been pumping and treating ground water using granular activated carbon as an Initial Remedial Measure (IRM). The Record of Decision (ROD) addresses a final solution for restoring ground water to its beneficial use. The primary contaminants of concern affecting the ground water are VOCs including TCE.

  1. Bianchi VI{sub 0} and III models: self-similar approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belinchon, Jose Antonio, E-mail: abelcal@ciccp.e [Departamento de Fisica, ETS Arquitectura, UPM, Av. Juan de Herrera 4, Madrid 28040 (Spain)

    2009-09-07

    We study several cosmological models with Bianchi VI{sub 0} and III symmetries under the self-similar approach. We find new solutions for the 'classical' perfect fluid model as well as for the vacuum model although they are really restrictive for the equation of state. We also study a perfect fluid model with time-varying constants, G and LAMBDA. As in other studied models we find that the behaviour of G and LAMBDA are related. If G behaves as a growing time function then LAMBDA is a positive decreasing time function but if G is decreasing then LAMBDA{sub 0} is negative. We end by studying a massive cosmic string model, putting special emphasis in calculating the numerical values of the equations of state. We show that there is no SS solution for a string model with time-varying constants.

  2. Models in animal collective decision-making: information uncertainty and conflicting preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Larissa

    2012-04-01

    Collective decision-making plays a central part in the lives of many social animals. Two important factors that influence collective decision-making are information uncertainty and conflicting preferences. Here, I bring together, and briefly review, basic models relating to animal collective decision-making in situations with information uncertainty and in situations with conflicting preferences between group members. The intention is to give an overview about the different types of modelling approaches that have been employed and the questions that they address and raise. Despite the use of a wide range of different modelling techniques, results show a coherent picture, as follows. Relatively simple cognitive mechanisms can lead to effective information pooling. Groups often face a trade-off between decision accuracy and speed, but appropriate fine-tuning of behavioural parameters could achieve high accuracy while maintaining reasonable speed. The right balance of interdependence and independence between animals is crucial for maintaining group cohesion and achieving high decision accuracy. In conflict situations, a high degree of decision-sharing between individuals is predicted, as well as transient leadership and leadership according to needs and physiological status. Animals often face crucial trade-offs between maintaining group cohesion and influencing the decision outcome in their own favour. Despite the great progress that has been made, there remains one big gap in our knowledge: how do animals make collective decisions in situations when information uncertainty and conflict of interest operate simultaneously?

  3. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  4. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  5. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  6. Automatically updating predictive modeling workflows support decision-making in drug design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muegge, Ingo; Bentzien, Jörg; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Hughes, Robert O

    2016-09-01

    Using predictive models for early decision-making in drug discovery has become standard practice. We suggest that model building needs to be automated with minimum input and low technical maintenance requirements. Models perform best when tailored to answering specific compound optimization related questions. If qualitative answers are required, 2-bin classification models are preferred. Integrating predictive modeling results with structural information stimulates better decision making. For in silico models supporting rapid structure-activity relationship cycles the performance deteriorates within weeks. Frequent automated updates of predictive models ensure best predictions. Consensus between multiple modeling approaches increases the prediction confidence. Combining qualified and nonqualified data optimally uses all available information. Dose predictions provide a holistic alternative to multiple individual property predictions for reaching complex decisions.

  7. The complexity of measuring power in generalized opinion leader decision models

    OpenAIRE

    Molinero Albareda, Xavier; Serna Iglesias, María José

    2016-01-01

    We analyze the computational complexity of the power measure in models of collective decision: the generalized opinion leader-follower model and the oblivious and non-oblivious infuence models. We show that computing the power measure is #P-hard in all these models, and provide two subfamilies in which the power measure can be computed in polynomial time. Peer Reviewed

  8. A New Decision Model for Reducing Trim Loss and Inventory in the Paper Industry

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wang, Fu-Kwun; Liu, Feng-Tai

    2014-01-01

    .... To ensure that the results better suit the actual requirements, we present a new decision model based on the adjustment of scheduling and limitation of inventory quantity to differentiate trim loss...

  9. The Integrated Medical Model: A Decision Support Tool for In-flight Crew Health Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Doug

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the development of an Integrated Medical Model (IMM) decision support tool for in-flight crew health care safety. Clinical methods, resources, and case scenarios are also addressed.

  10. Belief Bisimulation for Hidden Markov Models Logical Characterisation and Decision Algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, David N.; Nielson, Flemming; Zhang, Lijun

    2012-01-01

    This paper establishes connections between logical equivalences and bisimulation relations for hidden Markov models (HMM). Both standard and belief state bisimulations are considered. We also present decision algorithms for the bisimilarities. For standard bisimilarity, an extension of the usual...

  11. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  12. A Study on Integrated Model of Decision Support Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MO Zan; FENG Shan; TANG Chao

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses two kinds of systems integrated models available to DSS: Multi-AgentBased Model and Application-Framework-Oriented Model. Both of them are application-oriented integration so it is possible to combine them at the level of application. Based on this theory, this paper presents a new model, MAAFUM, which combines two models and applies them synthetically in DSS.

  13. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    results. Two special concerns in this paper is firstly the treatment of feasibility risk assessment adopted for evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, and secondly whether this can provide a more robust decision support model. This means moving away from a single point estimate to an interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  14. A Comparative Study of Two Decision Models: Frisch’s model and a simple Dutch planning model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Tinbergen (Jan)

    1951-01-01

    textabstractThe significance of Frisch's notion of decision models is, in the first place, that they draw full attention upon "inverted problems" which economic policy puts before us. In these problems the data are no longer those in the traditional economic problems, but partly the political goals

  15. A Dynamic Model for Decision Making During Memory Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-26

    attention and perception, the dynamics of short-term recognition memory, and quantum probability decision making. 15. SUBJECT TERMS...search.  Journal  of   Experimental  Psychology:  Learning,   Memory  and  Cognition,  40(6),  1524-­‐1539".         The...Rather,  selective  storage  is  guided  by  several   factors:   attention  is  given  to  pairings  on  the

  16. Fuzzy Multi-Objective Decision Model of Supplier Selection with Preference Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Supplier selection is a multi-objective decision problem, which must be considered many objectives, someobjectives are qualitative, and others are quantitative. Meanwhile, manufacturer has preference for different suppliers.In this paper, a new multi-objective decision model with preference information of supplier is established. A practicalexample of supplier selection problem utilizing this model is studied. The result demonstrates the feasibility andeffectiveness of the methods proposed in the paper.

  17. Emotion, Decision-Making and Substance Dependence: A Somatic-Marker Model of Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdejo-García, A; Pérez-García, M; Bechara, A

    2006-01-01

    Similar to patients with orbitofrontal cortex lesions, substance dependent individuals (SDI) show signs of impairments in decision-making, characterised by a tendency to choose the immediate reward at the expense of severe negative future consequences. The somatic-marker hypothesis proposes that decision-making depends in many important ways on neural substrates that regulate homeostasis, emotion and feeling. According to this model, there should be a link between abnormalities in experiencing emotions in SDI, and their severe impairments in decision-making in real-life. Growing evidence from neuroscientific studies suggests that core aspects of substance addiction may be explained in terms of abnormal emotional guidance of decision-making. Behavioural studies have revealed emotional processing and decision-making deficits in SDI. Combined neuropsychological and physiological assessment has demonstrated that the poorer decision-making of SDI is associated with altered reactions to reward and punishing events. Imaging studies have shown that impaired decision-making in addiction is associated with abnormal functioning of a distributed neural network critical for the processing of emotional information, including the ventromedial cortex, the amygdala, the striatum, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the insular/somato-sensory cortices, as well as non-specific neurotransmitter systems that modulate activities of neural processes involved in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to review this growing evidence, and to examine the extent of which these studies support a somatic-marker model of addiction. PMID:18615136

  18. A Multi Criteria Group Decision-Making Model for Teacher Evaluation in Higher Education Based on Cloud Model and Decision Tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ting-Cheng; Wang, Hui

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a cloud multi-criteria group decision-making model for teacher evaluation in higher education which is involving subjectivity, imprecision and fuzziness. First, selecting the appropriate evaluation index depending on the evaluation objectives, indicating a clear structural relationship between the evaluation index and…

  19. Application of the Viterbi Algorithm in Hidden Markov Models for Exploring Irrigation Decision Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriyas, S.; McKee, M.

    2014-12-01

    Anticipating farmers' irrigation decisions can provide the possibility of improving the efficiency of canal operations in on-demand irrigation systems. Although multiple factors are considered during irrigation decision making, for any given farmer there might be one factor playing a major role. Identification of that biophysical factor which led to a farmer deciding to irrigate is difficult because of high variability of those factors during the growing season. Analysis of the irrigation decisions of a group of farmers for a single crop can help to simplify the problem. We developed a hidden Markov model (HMM) to analyze irrigation decisions and explore the factor and level at which the majority of farmers decide to irrigate. The model requires observed variables as inputs and the hidden states. The chosen model inputs were relatively easily measured, or estimated, biophysical data, including such factors (i.e., those variables which are believed to affect irrigation decision-making) as cumulative evapotranspiration, soil moisture depletion, soil stress coefficient, and canal flows. Irrigation decision series were the hidden states for the model. The data for the work comes from the Canal B region of the Lower Sevier River Basin, near Delta, Utah. The main crops of the region are alfalfa, barley, and corn. A portion of the data was used to build and test the model capability to explore that factor and the level at which the farmer takes the decision to irrigate for future irrigation events. Both group and individual level behavior can be studied using HMMs. The study showed that the farmers cannot be classified into certain classes based on their irrigation decisions, but vary in their behavior from irrigation-to-irrigation across all years and crops. HMMs can be used to analyze what factor and, subsequently, what level of that factor on which the farmer most likely based the irrigation decision. The study shows that the HMM is a capable tool to study a process

  20. Dimension reduction of decision variables for multireservoir operation: A spectral optimization model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Duan; Leon, Arturo S.; Gibson, Nathan L.; Hosseini, Parnian

    2016-01-01

    Optimizing the operation of a multireservoir system is challenging due to the high dimension of the decision variables that lead to a large and complex search space. A spectral optimization model (SOM), which transforms the decision variables from time domain to frequency domain, is proposed to reduce the dimensionality. The SOM couples a spectral dimensionality-reduction method called Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion within the routine of Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II). The KL expansion is used to represent the decision variables as a series of terms that are deterministic orthogonal functions with undetermined coefficients. The KL expansion can be truncated into fewer significant terms, and consequently, fewer coefficients by a predetermined number. During optimization, operators of the NSGA-II (e.g., crossover) are conducted only on the coefficients of the KL expansion rather than the large number of decision variables, significantly reducing the search space. The SOM is applied to the short-term operation of a 10-reservoir system in the Columbia River of the United States. Two scenarios are considered herein, the first with 140 decision variables and the second with 3360 decision variables. The hypervolume index is used to evaluate the optimization performance in terms of convergence and diversity. The evaluation of optimization performance is conducted for both conventional optimization model (i.e., NSGA-II without KL) and the SOM with different number of KL terms. The results show that the number of decision variables can be greatly reduced in the SOM to achieve a similar or better performance compared to the conventional optimization model. For the scenario with 140 decision variables, the optimal performance of the SOM model is found with six KL terms. For the scenario with 3360 decision variables, the optimal performance of the SOM model is obtained with 11 KL terms.

  1. Cortical and hippocampal correlates of deliberation during model-based decisions for rewards in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron M Bornstein

    Full Text Available How do we use our memories of the past to guide decisions we've never had to make before? Although extensive work describes how the brain learns to repeat rewarded actions, decisions can also be influenced by associations between stimuli or events not directly involving reward - such as when planning routes using a cognitive map or chess moves using predicted countermoves - and these sorts of associations are critical when deciding among novel options. This process is known as model-based decision making. While the learning of environmental relations that might support model-based decisions is well studied, and separately this sort of information has been inferred to impact decisions, there is little evidence concerning the full cycle by which such associations are acquired and drive choices. Of particular interest is whether decisions are directly supported by the same mnemonic systems characterized for relational learning more generally, or instead rely on other, specialized representations. Here, building on our previous work, which isolated dual representations underlying sequential predictive learning, we directly demonstrate that one such representation, encoded by the hippocampal memory system and adjacent cortical structures, supports goal-directed decisions. Using interleaved learning and decision tasks, we monitor predictive learning directly and also trace its influence on decisions for reward. We quantitatively compare the learning processes underlying multiple behavioral and fMRI observables using computational model fits. Across both tasks, a quantitatively consistent learning process explains reaction times, choices, and both expectation- and surprise-related neural activity. The same hippocampal and ventral stream regions engaged in anticipating stimuli during learning are also engaged in proportion to the difficulty of decisions. These results support a role for predictive associations learned by the hippocampal memory system to

  2. Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

    2016-01-01

    The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

  3. A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pao-Yueh eHsiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

  4. New models for decision making in moral theology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, E F

    1986-01-01

    The way that the Christian tradition faces moral issues is being reshaped. Rather than focusing solely on Scripture and tradition as the basis for resolving ethical issues, decision makers should investigate human experience as well, some contemporary theologians recommend. In contrast to a traditional notion of natural law, which analyzes "human nature," the revisionist approach analyzes human experiences to discover what is authentic in them. This process looks not only at the physical structure of an act but also at its intentionality and its effect on the parties involved. Absolute material norms do not exist, according to the revisionist school. Instead one must examine an act's effects on a person's relationship to God, to others, to the physical world, and to oneself to determine whether it is morally right or wrong. Although this theological trend could be disconcerting to those who serve on ethics committees--since it does not rely on clear-cut rules--and may make decision making more difficult, its value lies in its potential to bring Christians closer to a divine understanding of reality.

  5. Model of human collective decision-making in complex environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Giuseppe; Giannoccaro, Ilaria

    2015-12-01

    A continuous-time Markov process is proposed to analyze how a group of humans solves a complex task, consisting in the search of the optimal set of decisions on a fitness landscape. Individuals change their opinions driven by two different forces: (i) the self-interest, which pushes them to increase their own fitness values, and (ii) the social interactions, which push individuals to reduce the diversity of their opinions in order to reach consensus. Results show that the performance of the group is strongly affected by the strength of social interactions and by the level of knowledge of the individuals. Increasing the strength of social interactions improves the performance of the team. However, too strong social interactions slow down the search of the optimal solution and worsen the performance of the group. In particular, we find that the threshold value of the social interaction strength, which leads to the emergence of a superior intelligence of the group, is just the critical threshold at which the consensus among the members sets in. We also prove that a moderate level of knowledge is already enough to guarantee high performance of the group in making decisions.

  6. A note on tilted Bianchi type VIh models: the type III bifurcation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, A. A.; Hervik, S.

    2008-10-01

    In this note we complete the analysis of Hervik, van den Hoogen, Lim and Coley (2007 Class. Quantum Grav. 24 3859) of the late-time behaviour of tilted perfect fluid Bianchi type III models. We consider models with dust, and perfect fluids stiffer than dust, and eludicate the late-time behaviour by studying the centre manifold which dominates the behaviour of the model at late times. In the dust case, this centre manifold is three-dimensional and can be considered a double bifurcation as the two parameters (h and γ) of the type VIh model are varied. We therefore complete the analysis of the late-time behaviour of tilted ever-expanding Bianchi models of types I VIII.

  7. Removal of Cr(III ions from salt solution by nanofiltration: experimental and modelling analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowalik-Klimczak Anna

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was experimental and modelling analysis of the nanofiltration process used for the removal of chromium(III ions from salt solution characterized by low pH. The experimental results were interpreted with Donnan and Steric Partitioning Pore (DSP model based on the extended Nernst-Planck equation. In this model, one of the main parameters, describing retention of ions by the membrane, is pore dielectric constant. In this work, it was identified for various process pressures and feed compositions. The obtained results showed the satisfactory agreement between the experimental and modelling data. It means that the DSP model may be helpful for the monitoring of nanofiltration process applied for treatment of chromium tannery wastewater.

  8. Groundwater modelling in decision support: reflections on a unified conceptual framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, John; Simmons, Craig T.

    2013-11-01

    Groundwater models are commonly used as basis for environmental decision-making. There has been discussion and debate in recent times regarding the issue of model simplicity and complexity. This paper contributes to this ongoing discourse. The selection of an appropriate level of model structural and parameterization complexity is not a simple matter. Although the metrics on which such selection should be based are simple, there are many competing, and often unquantifiable, considerations which must be taken into account as these metrics are applied. A unified conceptual framework is introduced and described which is intended to underpin groundwater modelling in decision support with a direct focus on matters regarding model simplicity and complexity.

  9. Using the Logistic Regression model in supporting decisions of establishing marketing strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel CONSTANTIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is about an instrumental research regarding the using of Logistic Regression model for data analysis in marketing research. The decision makers inside different organisation need relevant information to support their decisions regarding the marketing strategies. The data provided by marketing research could be computed in various ways but the multivariate data analysis models can enhance the utility of the information. Among these models we can find the Logistic Regression model, which is used for dichotomous variables. Our research is based on explanation the utility of this model and interpretation of the resulted information in order to help practitioners and researchers to use it in their future investigations

  10. A Modified Hybrid III 6-Year-Old Dummy Head Model for Lateral Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Rafukka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid III six-year-old (6YO child dummy head model was developed and validated for frontal impact assessment according to the specifications contained in Code of Federal Regulations, Title 49, Part 572.122, Subpart N by Livermore Software Technology Corporation (LSTC. This work is aimed at improving biofidelity of the head for frontal impact and also extending its application to lateral impact assessment by modifying the head skin viscoelastic properties and validating the head response using the scaled nine-year-old (9YO child cadaver head response recently published in the literature. The modified head model was validated for two drop heights for frontal, right, and left parietal impact locations. Peak resultant acceleration of the modified head model appeared to have good correlation with scaled 9YO child cadaver head response for frontal impact on dropping from 302 mm height and fair correlation with 12.3% difference for 151 mm drop height. Right parietal peak resultant acceleration values correlate well with scaled 9YO head experimental data for 153 mm drop height, while fair correlation with 16.4% difference was noticed for 302 mm drop height. Left parietal, however, shows low biofidelity for the two drop heights as the difference in head acceleration response was within 30%. The modified head model could therefore be used to estimate injuries in vehicle crash for head parietal impact locations which cannot be measured by the current hybrid III dummy head model.

  11. Decision Model for Life Cycle Assessment of Power Transformer during Load Violation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Bhandari

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Utility have normally planned the power transformer based on its designed load demand for the long term. Due to unexpected penetration, the actual load profile does not always follow the designed load and load violation will occur at some points during the life cycle of the power transformer for which the utility is inevitably required to make strategic decision. In the past, the decisions were mainly focused on the technical condition of the assetwithout any consideration to investment budget limitation. In this paper, an alternative methodology comprising of knowledge based model, financial model and decision criteria is proposed to make an optimal decision during load violation. A generic power system similar to Nepal Electricity Authority’s context was utilized as a case study. The result depicts that this model can effectively assess the life cycle of power transformer balancing both the financialand technical constraints.

  12. A decision model for cost effective design of biomass based green energy supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yılmaz Balaman, Şebnem; Selim, Hasan

    2015-09-01

    The core driver of this study is to deal with the design of anaerobic digestion based biomass to energy supply chains in a cost effective manner. In this concern, a decision model is developed. The model is based on fuzzy multi objective decision making in order to simultaneously optimize multiple economic objectives and tackle the inherent uncertainties in the parameters and decision makers' aspiration levels for the goals. The viability of the decision model is explored with computational experiments on a real-world biomass to energy supply chain and further analyses are performed to observe the effects of different conditions. To this aim, scenario analyses are conducted to investigate the effects of energy crop utilization and operational costs on supply chain structure and performance measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework. PMID:26543899

  14. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  15. Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajkumar Rajavel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

  16. A Primer of Social Decision Scheme Theory: Models of Group Influence, Competitive Model-Testing, and Prospective Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasser

    1999-10-01

    The basic elements of social decision scheme (SDS) theory are individual preferences, group preference compositions (distinguishable distributions), patterns of group influence (decision schemes, social combination rules), and collective responses (group decisions, judgments, solutions, and the like). The theory provides a framework for addressing two fundamental questions in the study of group performance: How are individual resources combined to yield a group response (the individual-into-group problem)? What are the implications of empirical observations under one set of circumstances for other conditions where data do not exist (the sparse data problem)? Several prescriptions for how to conduct fruitful group research are contained in the SDS tradition: make precise theoretical statements, provide strong and competitive tests of theories, and interpret empirical findings in the context of robust process models. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  17. Graphical representation of life paths to better convey results of decision models to patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubrichi, Stefania; Rognoni, Carla; Sacchi, Lucia; Parimbelli, Enea; Napolitano, Carlo; Mazzanti, Andrea; Quaglini, Silvana

    2015-04-01

    The inclusion of patients' perspectives in clinical practice has become an important matter for health professionals, in view of the increasing attention to patient-centered care. In this regard, this report illustrates a method for developing a visual aid that supports the physician in the process of informing patients about a critical decisional problem. In particular, we focused on interpretation of the results of decision trees embedding Markov models implemented with the commercial tool TreeAge Pro. Starting from patient-level simulations and exploiting some advanced functionalities of TreeAge Pro, we combined results to produce a novel graphical output that represents the distributions of outcomes over the lifetime for the different decision options, thus becoming a more informative decision support in a context of shared decision making. The training example used to illustrate the method is a decision tree for thromboembolism risk prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

  18. Research on Multiple Attributes Classification Decision-making Model and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JianqingWang

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of analyzing the flaws of present some multiple attributes classification decision-making methods,to the question of characteristics of the multiple at-tributes classification decision-making and particular emphasis of respective attributes in the decision-making process,as well as its relevance to the decision making environment,the paper firstly formulates an optimal attributes system,then uses the Multiplicative Analytic Hierarchy Process(MAHP)to determine subjective weight coefficients,estimate the objective weight coefficients,establishes the optimal model of the weight coefficients of the whole optimal attributes system,and obtain the weights on attributes.Furthermore,the paper presents a decision-making method and gives its detail implementation procedure.Finally,an example is given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

  19. Spectroscopic investigations on the complexation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) with organic model ligands and their binding mode in human urine (in vitro); Spektroskopische Untersuchungen zur Komplexbildung von Cm(III) und Eu(III) mit organischen Modellliganden sowie ihrer chemischen Bindungsform in menschlichem Urin (in vitro)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heller, Anne

    2011-10-26

    In case of incorporation, trivalent actinides (An(III)) and lanthanides (Ln(III)) pose a serious health risk to humans. An(III) are artificial, highly radioactive elements which are mainly produced during the nuclear fuel cycle in nuclear power plants. Via hazardous accidents or nonprofessional storage of radioactive waste, they can be released in the environment and enter the human food chain. In contrast, Ln(III) are nonradioactive, naturally occurring elements with multiple applications in technique and medicine. Consequently it is possible that humans get in contact and incorporate both, An(III) and Ln(III). Therefore, it is of particular importance to elucidate the behaviour of these elements in the human body. While macroscopic processes such as distribution, accumulation and excretion are studied quite well, knowledge about the chemical binding form (speciation) of An(III) and Ln(III) in various body fluids is still sparse. In the present work, for the first time, the speciation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) in natural human urine (in vitro) has been investigated spectroscopically and the formed complex identified. For this purpose, also basic investigations on the complex formation of Cm(III) and Eu(III) in synthetic model urine as well as with the urinary relevant, organic model ligands urea, alanine, phenylalanine, threonine and citrate have been performed and the previously unknown complex stability constants determined. Finally, all experimental results were compared to literature data and predictions calculated by thermodynamic modelling. Since both, Cm(III) and Eu(III), exhibit unique luminescence properties, particularly the suitability of time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TRLFS) could be demonstrated as a method to investigate these metal ions in untreated, complex biofluids. The results of this work provide new scientific findings on the biochemical reactions of An(III) and Ln(III) in human body fluids on a molecular scale and

  20. Modelling of Random Textured Tandem Silicon Solar Cells Characteristics: Decision Tree Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.S. Kamath

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We report decision tree (DT modeling of randomly textured tandem silicon solar cells characteristics. The photovoltaic modules of silicon-based solar cells are extremely popular due to their high efficiency and longer lifetime. Decision tree model is one of the most common data mining models can be used for predictive analytics. The reported investigation depicts optimum decision tree architecture achieved by tuning parameters such as Min split, Min bucket, Max depth and Complexity. DT model, thus derived is easy to understand and entails recursive partitioning approach implemented in the “rpart” package. Moreover the performance of the model is evaluated with reference Mean Square Error (MSE estimate of error rate. The modeling of the random textured silicon solar cells reveals strong correlation of efficiency with “Fill factor” and “thickness of a-Si layer”.

  1. Using participatory agent-based models to measure flood managers' decision thresholds in extreme event response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, A.; Douglass, E.; Gray, S. G.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme flooding impacts to coastal cities are not only a function of storm characteristics, but are heavily influenced by decision-making and preparedness in event-level response. While recent advances in climate and hydrological modeling make it possible to predict the influence of climate change on storm and flooding patterns, flood managers still face a great deal of uncertainty related to adapting organizational responses and decision thresholds to these changing conditions. Some decision thresholds related to mitigation of extreme flood impacts are well-understood and defined by organizational protocol, but others are difficult to quantify due to reliance on contextual expert knowledge, experience, and complexity of information necessary to make certain decisions. Our research attempts to address this issue by demonstrating participatory modeling methods designed to help flood managers (1) better understand and parameterize local decision thresholds in extreme flood management situations, (2) collectively learn about scaling management decision thresholds to future local flooding scenarios and (3) identify effective strategies for adaptating flood mitigation actions and organizational response to climate change-intensified flooding. Our agent-based system dynamic models rely on expert knowledge from local flood managers and sophisticated, climate change-informed hydrological models to simulate current and future flood scenarios. Local flood managers from interact with these models by receiving dynamic information and making management decisions as a flood scenario progresses, allowing parametrization of decision thresholds under different scenarios. Flooding impacts are calculated in each iteration as a means of discussing effectiveness of responses and prioritizing response alternatives. We discuss the findings of this participatory modeling and educational process from a case study of Boston, MA, and discuss transferability of these methods to other types

  2. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

  3. Modeling Integrated Water-User Decisions with Intermittent Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, J. R.; Rosenberg, D.

    2006-12-01

    We present an economic-engineering method to estimate urban water use demands with intermittent water supplies. A two-stage, probabilistic optimization formulation includes a wide variety of water supply enhancement and conservation actions that individual households can adopt to meet multiple water quality uses with uncertain water availability. We embed the optimization in Monte-Carlo simulations to show aggregate effects at a utility (citywide) scale for a population of user conditions and decisions. Parametric analysis provides derivations of supply curves to subsidize conservation, demand responses to alternative pricing, and customer willingness-to-pay to avoid shortages. Results show a good empirical fit for the average and distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Additional outputs give likely market penetration rates for household conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies required to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, market, and finance conservation programs and interpret a demand curve with block pricing.

  4. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...... measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers...

  5. Improving ingestion dose modelling for the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems: A Nordic Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Nielsen, Sven Poul; Thørring, Håvard

    2011-01-01

    A Nordic work group under the NKS-B activity PARDNOR has revised the input parameters in the ECOSYS model that is incorporated for ingestion dose modelling in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems. The new parameterisation takes into account recent measurement data, and targets the model...

  6. An extension of the usual model in statistical decision theory with applications to stochastic optimization problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balder, E.J.

    1980-01-01

    By employing fundamental results from “geometric” functional analysis and the theory of multifunctions we formulate a general model for (nonsequential) statistical decision theory, which extends Wald's classical model. From central results that hold for the model we derive a general theorem on the e

  7. To Aggregate or Not to Aggregate: Should decisions and models have the same frequency?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Kiygi Calli (Meltem); M. Weverbergh (Marcel); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the situation where hourly data are available to design advertising-response models, whereas managerial decision making can concern hourly, daily or weekly intervals. The key question is how models for hourly data compare to models based on weekly data with respect to forecas

  8. Consistency and consensus models for group decision-making with uncertain 2-tuple linguistic preference relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Guo, Chonghui

    2016-08-01

    Due to the uncertainty of the decision environment and the lack of knowledge, decision-makers may use uncertain linguistic preference relations to express their preferences over alternatives and criteria. For group decision-making problems with preference relations, it is important to consider the individual consistency and the group consensus before aggregating the preference information. In this paper, consistency and consensus models for group decision-making with uncertain 2-tuple linguistic preference relations (U2TLPRs) are investigated. First of all, a formula which can construct a consistent U2TLPR from the original preference relation is presented. Based on the consistent preference relation, the individual consistency index for a U2TLPR is defined. An iterative algorithm is then developed to improve the individual consistency of a U2TLPR. To help decision-makers reach consensus in group decision-making under uncertain linguistic environment, the individual consensus and group consensus indices for group decision-making with U2TLPRs are defined. Based on the two indices, an algorithm for consensus reaching in group decision-making with U2TLPRs is also developed. Finally, two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

  9. Dipole model analysis of the new HERA I+II data

    CERN Document Server

    Luszczak, Agnieszka

    2016-01-01

    We use the dipole model to analyze the inclusive DIS cross section data, obtained from the HERA I+II measurements \\cite{Abramowicz:2015mha}. We show that these combined data are very well described within the dipole model framework, which is complemented with a valence quark structure functions. Our motivation is to investigate the gluon density with the BGK dipole model \\cite{BGK} as an alternative to the PDF approach. BGK dipole model uses for evolution the DGLAP mechanism in the $kt$ factorization scheme (in contrast to the collinear factorization for PDFs). We confirm our results from the previous paper \\cite{Luszczak:2013rxa} with old HERA data \\cite{HERA2010}. In addition we also performed a first, preliminary investigation of saturation. The analysis was done in the xFitter framework \\cite{xFitter,xFitter2,xFitter3,xFitter4,xFitter5}.}

  10. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    estimated from data collected from the animal or herd. State space models (SSMs) are a general tool for modeling repeated measurements over time where the model parameters can evolve dynamically. In this paper we consider methods for embedding an SSM into an MDP with finite state and action space. Different...

  11. Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

    CERN Document Server

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

    2007-01-01

    The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

  12. Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Chen, Serena H.; El Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Lautenbach, Sven; McIntosh, Brian S.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Seppelt, Ralf; Struss, Peter; Voinov, Alexey; Volk, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase “decision support system” or “decision support tool”, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for

  13. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  14. Modelling human decision-making in coupled human and natural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feola, G.

    2012-12-01

    A solid understanding of human decision-making is essential to analyze the complexity of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and inform policies to promote resilience in the face of environmental change. Human decisions drive and/or mediate the interactions and feedbacks, and contribute to the heterogeneity and non-linearity that characterize CHANS. However, human decision-making is usually over-simplistically modeled, whereby human agents are represented deterministically either as dumb or clairvoyant decision-makers. Decision-making models fall short in the integration of both environmental and human behavioral drivers, and concerning the latter, tend to focus on only one category, e.g. economic, cultural, or psychological. Furthermore, these models render a linear decision-making process and therefore fail to account for the recursive co-evolutionary dynamics in CHANS. As a result, these models constitute only a weak basis for policy-making. There is therefore scope and an urgent need for better approaches to human decision-making, to produce the knowledge that can inform vulnerability reduction policies in the face of environmental change. This presentation synthesizes the current state-of-the-art of modelling human decision-making in CHANS, with particular reference to agricultural systems, and delineates how the above mentioned shortcomings can be overcome. Through examples from research on pesticide use and adaptation to climate change, both based on the integrative agent-centered framework (Feola and Binder, 2010), the approach for an improved understanding of human agents in CHANS are illustrated. This entails: integrative approach, focus on behavioral dynamics more than states, feedbacks between individual and system levels, and openness to heterogeneity.

  15. Decisions on investment allocation in the post-keynesian growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Azevedo Araujo

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the growth models of Feldman (1928 and Mahalanobis (1953 are extended to consider the analysis of decisions of investment allocation in the context of the Post Keynesian Growth Model. By adopting this approach it is possible to introduce distributive features in the Feldman-Mahalanobis model that allows us to determine the rate of investment allocation according to the equilibrium decisions of investment and savings. Finally, an additional condition is added to the Post Keynesian Growth Model in order to fully characterise the equilibrium path in an extended version of this framework, where capital goods are also needed to produce capital goods.

  16. Revisited: The South Dakota Board of Nursing theory-based regulatory decisioning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damgaard, Gloria; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2012-07-01

    The authors of this column describe the South Dakota Board of Nursing's 11 year journey utilizing a humanbecoming theory-based regulatory decisioning model. The column revisits the model with an emphasis on the cocreation of a strategic plan guiding the work of the South Dakota Board of Nursing through 2014. The strategic plan was influenced by the latest refinements of the humanbecoming postulates and the humanbecoming community change concepts. A graphic picture of the decisioning model is presented along with future plans for the theory-based model.

  17. Projective Market Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making

    CERN Document Server

    Szczypinska, Anna

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and generalise it to intransitive case. We give financial interpretations of such generalised model in the Projective Model of Market (PMM) and propose its simplification. The unification of the AHP model and projective aspect of portfolio theory suggests a wide spectrum of new applications such extended model.

  18. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  19. Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Calkin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

  20. Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for different scenarios of electrical power generation in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesham A. Hefny

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In the analytic network process (ANP a hierarchy or network is created to represent a decision and establishes a matrix containing the pair wise comparison judgments for the elements linked under a parent element. A priority vector of relative weights for these elements is derived. Then all the priority vectors are appropriately weighted and summed to obtain the overall priorities for the alternatives of a decision. In this paper we will develop an efficient fuzzy ANP model which helps decision makers to choose among the alternatives for the Egyptian scenarios of electrical power generation.

  1. Prioritization of engineering support requests and advanced technology projects using decision support and industrial engineering models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavana, Madjid

    1995-01-01

    The evaluation and prioritization of Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) is a particularly difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) -- Shuttle Project Engineering Office. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant pieces of information concerning Safety, Supportability, O&M Cost Savings, Process Enhancement, Reliability, and Implementation. Various analytical and normative models developed over the past have helped decision makers at KSC utilize large volumes of information in the evaluation of ESR's. The purpose of this project is to build on the existing methodologies and develop a multiple criteria decision support system that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The model utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and Maximize Agreement Heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of ESR's.

  2. A model of real estate and psychological factors in decision-making to buy real estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Grum

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the psychological characteristics of potential real estate buyers connected with their decision to buy. Through a review of research, it reveals that most studies of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate have a partial and dispersed orientation, and examine individual factors independently. It appears that the research area is lacking clearly defined models of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate that would integrally and relationally explain the role of psychological characteristics of real estate buyers and their expectations in relation to a decision to buy. The article identifies two sets of psychological factors, motivational and emotional, determines their interaction with potential buyers’ expectations when deciding to purchase real estate and offers starting points for forming a model.

  3. Fuzzy rule-based models for decision support in ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriaenssens, Veronique; De Baets, Bernard; Goethals, Peter L M; De Pauw, Niels

    2004-02-05

    To facilitate decision support in the ecosystem management, ecological expertise and site-specific data need to be integrated. Fuzzy logic can deal with highly variable, linguistic, vague and uncertain data or knowledge and, therefore, has the ability to allow for a logical, reliable and transparent information stream from data collection down to data usage in decision-making. Several environmental applications already implicate the use of fuzzy logic. Most of these applications have been set up by trial and error and are mainly limited to the domain of environmental assessment. In this article, applications of fuzzy logic for decision support in ecosystem management are reviewed and assessed, with an emphasis on rule-based models. In particular, the identification, optimisation, validation, the interpretability and uncertainty aspects of fuzzy rule-based models for decision support in ecosystem management are discussed.

  4. Collective Decision Dynamics in Group Evacuation: Modeling Tradeoffs and Optimal Behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Ali, Imtiaz; Carlson, Jean M

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and guiding the development of new technologies. However, modeling and predicting such behavior is notoriously difficult, due to the influence of a variety of complex factors such as the availability and uncertainty of information, the interaction and influence of social groups and networks, the degree of risk or time pressure involved in a situation, and differences in individual personalities and preferences. Here, we develop a stochastic model of human decision making to describe the empirical behavior of subjects in a controlled experiment simulating a natural disaster scenario. We compare the observed behavior to that of statistically optimal Bayesian decision makers, quantifying the extent to which human decisions are optimal and identifying the conditions in which sub-optimal ...

  5. Decision aid reliance: modeling the effects of decision aid reliability and pressures to perform on reliance behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gomaa, M.I.; Hunton, J.E.; Vaassen, E.H.J.; Carree, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the effects of decision aid reliability and pressure to perform on decision aid reliance. A total of 403 students took part in a four (pressures to perform: one through four) by five (decision aid reliability: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90%) between-participants experiment. We test two

  6. Decision aid reliance: modeling the effects of decision aid reliability and pressures to perform on reliance behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.I. Gomaa; J.E. Hunton; E.H.J. Vaassen; M.A. Carree

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the effects of decision aid reliability and pressure to perform on decision aid reliance. A total of 403 students took part in a four (pressures to perform: one through four) by five (decision aid reliability: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90%) between-participants experiment. We test two co

  7. Graph-based Models for Data and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-16

    hulls. ACM 11un.saction.s on Mathematical Softwan, 22( 4):469-483, 1996. [2] M. Belkin and P. Niyogi. Laplacian eigenrnaps for dimensionality...cogntive models and user interfaces, and have explored relationships between mathematical and computational models of a detection task. Additionally... software have been developed for implementing these analyses and making them widely available. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Workload capacity modeling, human

  8. Bringing Kano’s Perspective to AHP: The 2D-AHP Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Uk

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available AHP and the Kano model are such prevalent TQM tools that it may be surprising that a true hybrid decision-making model has so far eluded researchers. The quest for a hybrid approach is complicated by the differing output perspective of each model, namely discrete ranking (AHP versus a multi-dimensional picture (Kano. This paper presents a hybrid model of AHP and Kano model, so called two-dimension AHP (2D-AHP.

  9. Decisions on investment allocation in the post-Keynesian growth models

    OpenAIRE

    Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo; Teixeira, Joanílio Rodolpho

    2011-01-01

    In this article the analysis developed by Feldman (1928) and Mahalanobis (1953) are incorporated to the Post-Keynesian Growth Model to consider the decisions of investment allocation on economic growth. By adopting this approach it is possible to study the interaction between distributive features and investment allocation which allows us to determine the rate of investment allocation according to the equilibrium decisions of investment and savings. Finally, an additional condition is added t...

  10. Mass casualty modelling: a spatial tool to support triage decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hameed Syed M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During a mass casualty incident, evacuation of patients to the appropriate health care facility is critical to survival. Despite this, no existing system provides the evidence required to make informed evacuation decisions from the scene of the incident. To mitigate this absence and enable more informed decision making, a web based spatial decision support system (SDSS was developed. This system supports decision making by providing data regarding hospital proximity, capacity, and treatment specializations to decision makers at the scene of the incident. Methods This web-based SDSS utilizes pre-calculated driving times to estimate the actual driving time to each hospital within the inclusive trauma system of the large metropolitan region within which it is situated. In calculating and displaying its results, the model incorporates both road network and hospital data (e.g. capacity, treatment specialties, etc., and produces results in a matter of seconds, as is required in a MCI situation. In addition, its application interface allows the user to map the incident location and assists in the execution of triage decisions. Results Upon running the model, driving time from the MCI location to the surrounding hospitals is quickly displayed alongside information regarding hospital capacity and capability, thereby assisting the user in the decision-making process. Conclusions The use of SDSS in the prioritization of MCI evacuation decision making is potentially valuable in cases of mass casualty. The key to this model is the utilization of pre-calculated driving times from each hospital in the region to each point on the road network. The incorporation of real-time traffic and hospital capacity data would further improve this model.

  11. Perspective and circumstance in making decisions:The 4D model of the world of enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Acevedo Borrego, Adolfo Oswaldo; UNMSM

    2014-01-01

    To understand and solve business problems, the decision maker has a basic orientation to any dimensión of the organization. The 4 dimensións model is based on the perspective to understand and manipulate the business world: technical perspective that manages things and human perspective that is responsible for directing people to the task and performance, integration of both perspectives defines the basic preference of decision maker. The circumstance, that represents the problematic situatio...

  12. Neural underpinnings of decision strategy selection: a review and a theoretical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Wichary

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In multi-attribute choice, decision makers use various decision strategies to arrive at the final choice. What are the neural mechanisms underlying decision strategy selection? The first goal of this paper is to provide a literature review on the neural underpinnings and cognitive models of decision strategy selection and thus set the stage for a unifying neurocognitive model of this process. The second goal is to outline such a unifying, mechanistic model that can explain the impact of noncognitive factors (e.g. affect, stress on strategy selection. To this end, we review the evidence for the factors influencing strategy selection, the neural basis of strategy use and the cognitive models explaining this process. We also present the neurocognitive Bottom-Up Model of Strategy Selection (BUMSS. The model assumes that the use of the rational, normative Weighted Additive strategy and the boundedly rational heuristic Take The Best can be explained by one unifying, neurophysiologically plausible mechanism, based on the interaction of the frontoparietal network, orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex and the brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. According to BUMSS, there are three processes that form the bottom-up mechanism of decision strategy selection and lead to the final choice: 1 cue weight computation, 2 gain modulation, and 3 weighted additive evaluation of alternatives. We discuss how these processes might be implemented in the brain, and how this knowledge allows us to formulate novel predictions linking strategy use and neurophysiological indices.

  13. Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, B.A.

    1980-11-01

    This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the models were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.

  14. Neural Underpinnings of Decision Strategy Selection: A Review and a Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wichary, Szymon; Smolen, Tomasz

    2016-01-01

    In multi-attribute choice, decision makers use decision strategies to arrive at the final choice. What are the neural mechanisms underlying decision strategy selection? The first goal of this paper is to provide a literature review on the neural underpinnings and cognitive models of decision strategy selection and thus set the stage for a neurocognitive model of this process. The second goal is to outline such a unifying, mechanistic model that can explain the impact of noncognitive factors (e.g., affect, stress) on strategy selection. To this end, we review the evidence for the factors influencing strategy selection, the neural basis of strategy use and the cognitive models of this process. We also present the Bottom-Up Model of Strategy Selection (BUMSS). The model assumes that the use of the rational Weighted Additive strategy and the boundedly rational heuristic Take The Best can be explained by one unifying, neurophysiologically plausible mechanism, based on the interaction of the frontoparietal network, orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex and the brainstem nucleus locus coeruleus. According to BUMSS, there are three processes that form the bottom-up mechanism of decision strategy selection and lead to the final choice: (1) cue weight computation, (2) gain modulation, and (3) weighted additive evaluation of alternatives. We discuss how these processes might be implemented in the brain, and how this knowledge allows us to formulate novel predictions linking strategy use and neural signals. PMID:27877103

  15. The catalytic ozonization of model lignin compounds in the presence of Fe(III) ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben'ko, E. M.; Mukovnya, A. V.; Lunin, V. V.

    2007-05-01

    The ozonization of several model lignin compounds (guaiacol, 2,6-dimethoxyphenol, phenol, and vanillin) was studied in acid media in the presence of iron(III) ions. It was found that Fe3+ did not influence the initial rate of the reactions between model phenols and ozone but accelerated the oxidation of intermediate ozonolysis products. The metal concentration dependences of the total ozone consumption and effective rate constants of catalytic reaction stages were determined. Data on reactions in the presence of oxalic acid as a competing chelate ligand showed that complex formation with Fe3+ was the principal factor that accelerated the ozonolysis of model phenols at the stage of the oxidation of carboxylic dibasic acids and C2 aldehydes formed as intermediate products.

  16. Iron(III) complexes of certain tetradentate phenolate ligands as functional models for catechol dioxygenases

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mallayan Palaniandavar; Marappan Velusamy; Ramasamy Mayilmurugan

    2006-11-01

    Catechol 1,2-dioxygenase (CTD) and protocatechuate 3,4-dioxygenase (PCD) are bacterial non-heme iron enzymes, which catalyse the oxidative cleavage of catechols to cis, cis-muconic acids with the incorporation of molecular oxygen via a mechanism involving a high-spin ferric centre. The iron(III) complexes of tripodal phenolate ligands containing N3O and N2O2 donor sets represent the metal binding region of the iron proteins. In our laboratory iron(III) complexes of mono- and bisphenolate ligands have been studied successfully as structural and functional models for the intradiol-cleaving catechol dioxygenase enzymes. The single crystal X-ray crystal structures of four of the complexes have been determined. One of the bis-phenolato complexes contains a FeN2O2Cl chromophore with a novel trigonal bipyramidal coordination geometry. The Fe-O-C bond angle of 136.1° observed for one of the iron(III) complex of a monophenolate ligand is very similar to that in the enzymes. The importance of the nearby sterically demanding coordinated -NMe2 group has been established and implies similar stereochemical constraints from the other ligated amino acid moieties in the 3,4-PCD enzymes, the enzyme activity of which is traced to the difference in the equatorial and axial Fe-O(tyrosinate) bonds (Fe-O-C, 133, 148°). The nature of heterocyclic rings of the ligands and the methyl substituents on them regulate the electronic spectral features, FeIII/FeII redox potentials and catechol cleavage activity of the complexes. Upon interacting with catecholate anions, two catecholate to iron(III) charge transfer bands appear and the low energy band is similar to that of catechol dioxygenase-substrate complex. Four of the complexes catalyze the oxidative cleavage of H2DBC by molecular oxygen to yield intradiol cleavage products. Remarkably, the more basic N-methylimidazole ring in one of the complexes facilitates the rate-determining productreleasing phase of the catalytic reaction. The present

  17. A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

    2005-12-01

    We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42

  18. Pricing decision model for new and remanufactured short-life cycle products with time-dependent demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu San Gan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we develop a model that optimizes the price for new and remanufactured short life-cycle products where demands are time-dependent and price sensitive. While there has been very few published works that attempt to model remanufacturing decisions for products with short life cycle, we believe that there are many situations where remanufacturing short life cycle products is rewarding economically as well as environmentally. The system that we model consists of a retailer, a manufacturer, and a collector of used product from the end customers. Two different scenarios are evaluated for the system. The first is the independent situation where each party attempts to maximize his/her own total profit and the second is the joint profit model where we optimize the combined total profit for all three members of the supply chain. Manufacturer acts as the Stackelberg leader in the independently optimized scenario, while in the other the intermediate prices are determined by coordinated pricing policy. The results suggest that (i reducing the price of new products during the decline phase does not give better profit for the whole system, (ii the total profit obtained from optimizing each player is lower than the total profit of the integrated model, and (iii speed of change in demand influences the robustness of the prices as well as the total profit gained.

  19. Development and Implementation of Efficiency-Improving Analysis Methods for the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Model Originating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liles, Kaitlin; Amundsen, Ruth; Davis, Warren; Scola, Salvatore; Tobin, Steven; McLeod, Shawn; Mannu, Sergio; Guglielmo, Corrado; Moeller, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle in 2015. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Several novel methods have been implemented to facilitate efficient payload-level thermal analysis, including the use of a design of experiments (DOE) methodology to determine the worst-case orbits for SAGE III while on ISS, use of TD assemblies to move payloads from the Dragon trunk to the Enhanced Operational Transfer Platform (EOTP) to its final home on the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to Space Station (ExPRESS) Logistics Carrier (ELC)-4, incorporation of older models in varying unit sets, ability to change units easily (including hardcoded logic blocks), case-based logic to facilitate activating heaters and active elements for varying scenarios within a single model, incorporation of several coordinate frames to easily map to structural models with differing geometries and locations, and streamlined results processing using an Excel-based text file plotter developed in-house at LaRC. This document presents an overview of the SAGE III thermal model and describes the development and implementation of these efficiency-improving analysis methods.

  20. An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Ascough, J.C.; Liu, J.; Luckai, N.; Mailly, D.; Archambault, L.; Gordon, Andrew M.

    2011-01-01

    The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

  1. DECISION WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION MODELS ON A TRAFFIC SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Gonçalves Dutra da Silva

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This work aims to demonstrate the use of a mechanism to be applied in the development of the discrete-event simulation models that perform decision operations through the implementation of an artificial neural network. Actions that involve complex operations performed by a human agent in a process, for example, are often modeled in simplified form with the usual mechanisms of simulation software. Therefore, it was chosen a traffic system controlled by a traffic officer with a flow of vehicles and pedestrians to demonstrate the proposed solution. From a module built in simulation software itself, it was possible to connect the algorithm for intelligent decision to the simulation model. The results showed that the model elaborated responded as expected when it was submitted to actions, which required different decisions to maintain the operation of the system with changes in the flow of people and vehicles.

  2. Issues in Developing a Normative Descriptive Model for Dyadic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    Most research in modelling human information processing and decision making has been devoted to the case of the single human operator. In the present effort, concepts from the fields of organizational behavior, engineering psychology, team theory and mathematical modelling are merged in an attempt to consider first the case of two cooperating decisionmakers (the Dyad) in a multi-task environment. Rooted in the well-known Dynamic Decision Model (DDM), the normative descriptive approach brings basic cognitive and psychophysical characteristics inherent to human behavior into a team theoretic analytic framework. An experimental paradigm, involving teams in dynamic decision making tasks, is designed to produce the data with which to build the theoretical model.

  3. Multi-attribute decision making model based on optimal membership and relative entropy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rao Congjun; Zhao Yong

    2009-01-01

    To study the problems of multi-attribute decision making in which the attribute values are given in the form of linguistic fuzzy numbers and the information of attribute weights are incomplete, a new multi-attribute decision making model is presented based on the optimal membership and the relative entropy. Firstly, the definitions of the optimal membership and the relative entropy are given. Secondly, for all alternatives, a set of preference weight vectors are obtained by solving a set of linear programming models whose goals are all to maximize the optimal membership. Thirdly, a relative entropy model is established to aggregate the preference weight vectors, thus an optimal weight vector is determined. Based on this optimal weight vector, the algorithm of deviation degree minimization is proposed to rank all the alternatives. Finally, a decision making example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of this new model.

  4. Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamino, Roberto C.

    2016-08-01

    This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget’s ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions.

  5. Modelling regional labour market dynamics: Participation, employment and migration decisions in a spatial CGE model for the EU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damiaan Persyn

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines how regional labour market adjustments to macroeconomic and policy shocks are modelled in RHOMOLO through participation, employment and migration decisions of workers. RHOMOLO, being a multisectoral, inter-regional general equilibrium model, is complex both in terms of its dimensionality and the modelling of spatial interactions through trade flows and factor mobility. The modelling of the labour market is therefore constrained by the tractability and computational solvability of the model. The labour market module consists of individual labour participation decisions, including the extensive margin (to participate or not and the intensive margin (hours of work. Unemployment is determined through a wage curve and inter-regional labour migration decisions are modelled in a discrete-choice framework, with backward-looking expectations.

  6. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  7. Customer Decision Making in Web Services with an Integrated P6 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhaohao; Sun, Junqing; Meredith, Grant

    Customer decision making (CDM) is an indispensable factor for web services. This article examines CDM in web services with a novel P6 model, which consists of the 6 Ps: privacy, perception, propensity, preference, personalization and promised experience. This model integrates the existing 6 P elements of marketing mix as the system environment of CDM in web services. The new integrated P6 model deals with the inner world of the customer and incorporates what the customer think during the DM process. The proposed approach will facilitate the research and development of web services and decision support systems.

  8. A decision-making model of gear process for green manufacturing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A decision-making model of gear process for green manufacturing is presented, which integrates the five objectives including the time, quality, cost, resource consumption and environmental impact of gear process together into the development of a strategy. Mathematical description is provided for the multi-objectives decision-making model. The expert judgment and the multi-fuzzy assessment theory are introduced to do sensible comparisons and give quantitative results. A case study on practical cutting tool selection in gear machining demonstrates that the proposed model is applicable.

  9. Modelling in support of decision-making for South African extensive beef farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.H. Meyer

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study it is shown that it is possible to build a decision support system for the use of South African extensive beef farmers. Initially models for the key variables which affect extensive beef farmers are developed. These key variables include rainfall, beef, veal and weaner prices and the condition of the veld. This last key variable is monitored using the voluntary lick intake of the cattle and is modelled in terms of rainfall and stocking intensity. Particular attention is paid to the interrelationships between the key variables and to the distribution of modelling errors. The next stage of the study concerns the use of these models as a decision-support tool for extensive beef farmers. It is shown that Monte Carlo simulations and dynamic programming analyses can use these models to suggest how gross margins can be increased. At the same time these methods can be used to monitor the effect of management decisions on mean lick intake and, hence, the effect of these decisions on the condition of the veld. In particular the decisions of "what stocking intensity", "what cattle system", "when to sell" and "when to make a change" are addressed.

  10. Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Yu; Shang, Hua-Yan; Lu, Hua-Pu

    2011-07-01

    Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton (CA) model, based on the driving decision (DD). In the DD model, a driver's decision is divided into three stages: decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle's velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle's velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

  11. Analysis of Phase Transition in Traffic Flow based on a New Model of Driving Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Yu; SHANG Hua-Yan; LU Hua-Pu

    2011-01-01

    Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton (CA) model, based on the driving decision (DD). In the DD model, a driver's decision is divided into three stages: decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle's velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle's velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.

  12. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  13. Modeling the Occupational/Career Decision-Making Processes of Intellectually Gifted Adolescents: A Competing Models Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2014-01-01

    This study developed and empirically tested two related models of the occupational/career decision-making processes of gifted adolescents using a competing models strategy. The two models that guided the study, which acknowledged cultural orientations, social influences from the family, occupational/career values, and characteristics of…

  14. A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-09-01

    Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary

  15. A model of supervisor decision-making in the accommodation of workers with low back pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S.; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE To explore supervisors’ perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. METHODS Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. RESULTS The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative “trial and error” decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor’s attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. CONCLUSIONS A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; b) decision resources

  16. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L; Grimm, Volker

    2010-08-01

    Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

    2010-01-01

    Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

  18. Chemical analysis of simulated high level waste glasses to support stage III sulfate solubility modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, K. M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-03-17

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Management (EM) is sponsoring an international, collaborative project to develop a fundamental model for sulfate solubility in nuclear waste glass. The solubility of sulfate has a significant impact on the achievable waste loading for nuclear waste forms within the DOE complex. These wastes can contain relatively high concentrations of sulfate, which has low solubility in borosilicate glass. This is a significant issue for low-activity waste (LAW) glass and is projected to have a major impact on the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Sulfate solubility has also been a limiting factor for recent high level waste (HLW) sludge processed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The low solubility of sulfate in glass, along with melter and off-gas corrosion constraints, dictate that the waste be blended with lower sulfate concentration waste sources or washed to remove sulfate prior to vitrification. The development of enhanced borosilicate glass compositions with improved sulfate solubility will allow for higher waste loadings and accelerate mission completion.The objective of the current scope being pursued by SHU is to mature the sulfate solubility model to the point where it can be used to guide glass composition development for DWPF and WTP, allowing for enhanced waste loadings and waste throughput at these facilities. A series of targeted glass compositions was selected to resolve data gaps in the model and is identified as Stage III. SHU fabricated these glasses and sent samples to SRNL for chemical composition analysis. SHU will use the resulting data to enhance the sulfate solubility model and resolve any deficiencies. In this report, SRNL provides chemical analyses for the Stage III, simulated HLW glasses fabricated by SHU in support of the sulfate solubility model development.

  19. Observing the observer (I): meta-bayesian models of learning and decision-making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daunizeau, J.; Ouden, H.E.M. den; Pessiglione, M.; Kiebel, S.J.; Stephan, K.E.; Friston, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden "state of affairs" and a response model, which predic

  20. THE OPTIMUM MODEL AND ITS DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM OF COAL QUALITY BALANCE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟祥瑞; 舒航

    1999-01-01

    The meaning and significance of coal quality balance are summarized in this paper. Practical steps concerning constructing the synthetic tech-economic model and its decision support system of coal quality balance using the optimization technology of inverse recurrence of established initializing parameters are also introduced. The principles and methods as being applied in the model system development and procedure construction are discussed accordingly.