WorldWideScience

Sample records for model future residential

  1. Models for residential- and commercial-sector energy-conservation analysis: applications, limitations, and future potential. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Henry E.; Fullen, Robert E.

    1980-09-01

    This report reviews four of the major models used by the Department of Energy (DOE) for energy conservation analyses in the residential- and commercial-building sectors. The objective is to provide a critical analysis of how these models can serve as tools for DOE and its Conservation Policy Office in evaluating and quantifying their policy and program requirements. For this, the study brings together information on the models' analytical structure and their strengths and limitations in policy applications these are then employed to assess the most-effective role for each model in addressing future issues of buildings energy-conservation policy and analysis. The four models covered are: Oak Ridge Residential Energy Model; Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households/Comprehensive Human Resources Data System (MATH/CHRDS) Model; Oak Ridge Commercial Energy Model; and Brookhaven Buildings Energy Conservation Optimization Model (BECOM).

  2. Residential heat pumps in the future Danish energy system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2016-01-01

    for politically agreed targets which include: at least 50% of electricity consumption from wind power starting from 2020, fossil fuel free heat and power sector from 2035 and 100% renewable energy system starting from 2050. Residential heat pumps supply around 25% of total residential heating demand after 2035......Denmark is striving towards 100% renewable energy system in 2050. Residential heat pumps are expected to be a part of that system.We propose two novel approaches to improve the representation of residential heat pumps: Coefficients of performance (COPs) are modelled as dependent on air and ground...... temperature while installation of ground-source heat pumps is constrained by available ground area. In this study, TIMES-DK model is utilised to test the effects of improved modelling of residential heat pumps on the Danish energy system until 2050.The analysis of the Danish energy system was done...

  3. Plasma Processing of Model Residential Solid Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messerle, V. E.; Mossé, A. L.; Nikonchuk, A. N.; Ustimenko, A. B.; Baimuldin, R. V.

    2017-09-01

    The authors have tested the technology of processing of model residential solid waste. They have developed and created a pilot plasma unit based on a plasma chamber incinerator. The waste processing technology has been tested and prepared for commercialization.

  4. Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dilaver, Zafer; Hunt, Lester C

    2011-01-01

    This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. - Research highlights: → Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. → Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. → Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. → Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.

  5. Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atalla, Tarek N.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for population, weather, and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour. The resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks. In particular, the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy-related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers, possibly by education and marketing campaigns. Moreover, even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities—unless, that is, prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase (in absolute terms). - Highlights: • Residential electricity demand for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia • Estimated residential electricity demand relationships using STSM/UEDT approach • LR income and price elasticities from 0.43 to 0.71 and − 0.16 to zero respectively • Impact CDD elasticities from 0.2 to 0.7 • Estimated UEDTs suggest exogenous electricity using behaviour.

  6. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Minjie [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China); State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zhaoguang [State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China)

    2008-12-15

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  7. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Minjie; Hu, Zhaoguang; Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  8. Analysis of a Residential Building Energy Consumption Demand Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to estimate the energy consumption demand of residential buildings, this paper first discusses the status and shortcomings of current domestic energy consumption models. Then it proposes and develops a residential building energy consumption demand model based on a back propagation (BP neural network model. After that, taking residential buildings in Chongqing (P.R. China as an example, 16 energy consumption indicators are introduced as characteristics of the residential buildings in Chongqing. The index system of the BP neutral network prediction model is established and the multi-factorial BP neural network prediction model of Chongqing residential building energy consumption is developed using the Cshap language, based on the SQL server 2005 platform. The results obtained by applying the model in Chongqing are in good agreement with actual ones. In addition, the model provides corresponding approximate data by taking into account the potential energy structure adjustments and relevant energy policy regulations.

  9. Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

  10. Future Services for District Heating Solutions in Residential Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannele Ahvenniemi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The underlying assumption of this study is that in order to retain the competitiveness while reaching for the EU targets regarding low-energy construction, district heating companies need to develop new business and service models. How district heating companies could broaden their perspective and switch to a more service-oriented way of thinking is a key interest of our research. The used methods in our study are house builder interviews and a questionnaire. With the help of these methods we discussed the potential interest in heating related services acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the customer needs. The results indicate the importance of certain criteria when choosing the heating system in households: easiness, comfort and affordability seem to dominate the house builders’ preferences. Also environmental awareness seems to be for many an important factor when making a decision about the heating of the house. Altogether, based on the results of this study, we suggest that the prospects of district heating could benefit from highlighting certain aspects and strengths in the future. District heating companies need to increase flexibility, readiness to adopt new services, to invest in new marketing strategies and improving the communication skills.

  11. Residential energy efficiency: Progress since 1973 and future potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Arthur H.

    1985-11-01

    Today's 85 million U.S. homes use 100 billion of fuel and electricity (1150/home). If their energy intensity (resource energy/ft2) were still frozen at 1973 levels, they would use 18% more. With well-insulated houses, need for space heat is vanishing. Superinsulated Saskatchewan homes spend annually only 270 for space heat, 150 for water heat, and 400 for appliances, yet they cost only 2000±1000 more than conventional new homes. The concept of Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is used to rank conservation technologies for existing and new homes and appliances, and to develop supply curves of conserved energy and a least cost scenario. Calculations are calibrated with the BECA and other data bases. By limiting investments in efficiency to those whose CCE is less than current fuel and electricity prices, the potential residential plus commercial energy use in 2000 AD drops to half of that estimated by DOE, and the number of power plants needed drops by 200. For the whole buildings sector, potential savings by 2000 are 8 Mbod (worth 50B/year), at an average CCE of 10/barrel.

  12. A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be

  13. The importance of the criteria of residential buildings from the perspective of future users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirochmanová, Lenka; Kozlovská, Mária; Bašková, Renáta

    2016-06-01

    The developers need to know what is important to their customers in preparation of new construction of residential buildings. The paper deals with finding the importance of structure, material, cost, time and environmental criteria of residential buildings from the perspective of the future owners. The research methodology that provided the information was questionnaire survey. Research was conducted in two lines. The first line is dedicated to the research of main construction domains of residential building. The second line of the research deals with the specific criteria of main construction domains. The order of importance of the main areas and the specific criteria is determined by analyzing of data through descriptive characteristics: median, modus, variance, average value and by weigh of importance.

  14. A Probabilistic Model for Exteriors of Residential Buildings

    KAUST Repository

    Fan, Lubin; Wonka, Peter

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new framework to model the exterior of residential buildings. The main goal of our work is to design a model that can be learned from data that is observable from the outside of a building and that can be trained with widely available

  15. A state-space model for residential real estate valuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Francke, M.

    2010-01-01

    All property in the Netherlands has to be appraised yearly. Yearly valuation has only been made possible with the help of models. The number of real estate appraisers is simply too small to value the more than 7 million residential properties. This paper describes the statistical model that is used

  16. Integrated Urban System and Energy Consumption Model: Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocco Papa

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a segment of research conducted within the project PON 04a2_E Smart Energy Master for the energetic government of the territory conducted by the Department of Civil, Architectural and Environment Engineering, University of Naples "Federico II".  In particular, this article is part of the study carried out for the definition of the comprehension/interpretation model that correlates buildings, city’s activities and users’ behaviour in order to promote energy savings. In detail, this segment of the research wants to define the residential variables to be used in the model. For this purpose a knowledge framework at international level has been defined, to estimate the energy requirements of residential buildings and the identification of a set of parameters, whose variation has a significant influence on the energy consumption of residential buildings.

  17. Integrated urban water management for residential areas: a reuse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, A B; Argue, J R

    2009-01-01

    Global concern over growing urban water demand in the face of limited water resources has focussed attention on the need for better management of available water resources. This paper takes the "fit for purpose" concept and applies it in the development of a model aimed at changing current practices with respect to residential planning by integrating reuse systems into the design layout. This residential reuse model provides an approach to the design of residential developments seeking to maximise water reuse. Water balance modelling is used to assess the extent to which local water resources can satisfy residential demands with conditions based on the city of Adelaide, Australia. Physical conditions include a relatively flat topography and a temperate climate, with annual rainfall being around 500 mm. The level of water-self-sufficiency that may be achieved within a reuse development in this environment is estimated at around 60%. A case study is also presented in which a conventional development is re-designed on the basis of the reuse model. Costing of the two developments indicates the reuse scenario is only marginally more expensive. Such costings however do not include the benefit to upstream and downstream environments resulting from reduced demand and discharges. As governments look to developers to recover system augmentation and environmental costs the economics of such approaches will increase.

  18. Planning for the future : the role of mobility in residential and lifestyle choices of baby boomers and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study explores the extent to which Baby Boomers and older adults take mobility and : transportation issues into consideration as they make individual residential and lifestyle plans for : their future older years. While transportation and urban ...

  19. Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor A Johnsen

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

  20. PCMs for Residential Building Applications: A Short Review Focused on Disadvantages and Proposals for Future Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley Bland

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Phase change materials (PCMs offer great potential as a latent heat energy storage technique to provide energy efficient systems in new and existing residential buildings. Due to their unique characteristic of high storage densities and latent heat properties, PCMs provide opportunities for greater energy storage in many applications for residential buildings. These applications include, but are not limited to, solar water heating, space heating/cooling, and waste heat recovery. This study reviews PCM systems in residential building applications, with a focus on their major disadvantages and concludes with proposals for future development. Several disadvantages of PCM use in the given application have been identified and include; super cooling, low thermal conductivity, phase segregation, fire safety, and cost. The issues caused by super cooling and phase segregation lead to thermal cycling degradation, limiting the useful lifecycle of the material. These issues could limit their potential in building applications, which require systems of a long lifespan. Low thermal conductivities can slow down the rate at which heat is distributed or absorbed from the building, which affect the occupants comfort and as well as the efficiency of the system. Ideas based on the current research on ways to limit these disadvantages are included in the study. This study also identifies that further research is required on novel maintenance ways for the PCM systems after they have been installed.

  1. Modeling residential exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepeis, Neil E.; Nazaroff, William W.

    We apply a simulation model to explore the effect of a house's multicompartment character on a nonsmoker's inhalation exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS). The model tracks the minute-by-minute movement of people and pollutants among multiple zones of a residence and generates SHS pollutant profiles for each room in response to room-specific smoking patterns. In applying the model, we consider SHS emissions of airborne particles, nicotine, and carbon monoxide in two hypothetical houses, one with a typical four-room layout and one dominated by a single large space. We use scripted patterns of room-to-room occupant movement and a cohort of 5000 activity patterns sampled from a US nationwide survey. The results for scripted and cohort simulation trials indicate that the multicompartment nature of homes, manifested as inter-room differences in pollutant levels and the movement of people among zones, can cause substantial variation in nonsmoker SHS exposure.

  2. Spatio-temporal modeling for residential burglary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahfoud, M.; Bhulai, Sandjai; van der Mei, R.D.; Bhulai, Sandjai; Kardaras, Dimitris

    2017-01-01

    Spatio-temporal modeling is widely recognized as a promising means for predicting crime patterns. Despite their enormous potential, the available methods are still in their infancy. A lot of research focuses on crime hotspot detection and geographic crime clusters, while a systematic approach to

  3. Residential electricity consumption in Portugal: Findings from top-down and bottom-up models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiesmann, Daniel; Lima Azevedo, Ines; Ferrao, Paulo; Fernandez, John E.

    2011-01-01

    An econometric study of the Portuguese residential electricity consumption is presented, with a focus on the influence of dwelling characteristics on consumption. The relationship between the dwelling and household characteristics on per capita residential electricity consumption is estimated at two different scales, involving two distinct databases: the first includes data at the municipality level for 2001, the second is the most recent Portuguese consumer expenditure survey that was collected in 2005 and 2006. The results of the analysis at both scales are consistent and indicate that household and dwelling characteristics have a significant influence on residential electricity consumption. Our results show that in Portugal the direct effect of income on electricity consumption is low and becomes smaller when more relevant control variables are included in the analysis. Future demand of electricity in Portugal will be significantly influenced by trends in socioeconomic factors as well as changes in the building stock. These trends should be taken in consideration in the formulation of policy measures to reduce electricity consumption. - Research highlights: → Econometric study of per capita residential electricity consumption in Portugal. → Comparing models at two levels of aggregation: by municipality and by household. → Using proxies for the dwelling characteristics on the municipality level. → Results from both scales are consistent. → Income elasticity is low and the influence of dwelling characteristics is significant.

  4. Residential electricity consumption in Portugal: Findings from top-down and bottom-up models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiesmann, Daniel, E-mail: daniel.wiesmann@ist.utl.p [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Lima Azevedo, Ines [Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Ferrao, Paulo [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Fernandez, John E. [Department of Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2011-05-15

    An econometric study of the Portuguese residential electricity consumption is presented, with a focus on the influence of dwelling characteristics on consumption. The relationship between the dwelling and household characteristics on per capita residential electricity consumption is estimated at two different scales, involving two distinct databases: the first includes data at the municipality level for 2001, the second is the most recent Portuguese consumer expenditure survey that was collected in 2005 and 2006. The results of the analysis at both scales are consistent and indicate that household and dwelling characteristics have a significant influence on residential electricity consumption. Our results show that in Portugal the direct effect of income on electricity consumption is low and becomes smaller when more relevant control variables are included in the analysis. Future demand of electricity in Portugal will be significantly influenced by trends in socioeconomic factors as well as changes in the building stock. These trends should be taken in consideration in the formulation of policy measures to reduce electricity consumption. - Research highlights: {yields} Econometric study of per capita residential electricity consumption in Portugal. {yields} Comparing models at two levels of aggregation: by municipality and by household. {yields} Using proxies for the dwelling characteristics on the municipality level. {yields} Results from both scales are consistent. {yields} Income elasticity is low and the influence of dwelling characteristics is significant.

  5. A Probabilistic Model for Exteriors of Residential Buildings

    KAUST Repository

    Fan, Lubin

    2016-07-29

    We propose a new framework to model the exterior of residential buildings. The main goal of our work is to design a model that can be learned from data that is observable from the outside of a building and that can be trained with widely available data such as aerial images and street-view images. First, we propose a parametric model to describe the exterior of a building (with a varying number of parameters) and propose a set of attributes as a building representation with fixed dimensionality. Second, we propose a hierarchical graphical model with hidden variables to encode the relationships between building attributes and learn both the structure and parameters of the model from the database. Third, we propose optimization algorithms to generate three-dimensional models based on building attributes sampled from the graphical model. Finally, we demonstrate our framework by synthesizing new building models and completing partially observed building models from photographs.

  6. Residential and Transport Energy Use in India: Past Trend and Future Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael; Zhou, Nan; Sathaye, Jayant

    2009-03-31

    The main contribution of this report is to characterize the underlying residential and transport sector end use energy consumption in India. Each sector was analyzed in detail. End-use sector-level information regarding adoption of particular technologies was used as a key input in a bottom-up modeling approach. The report looks at energy used over the period 1990 to 2005 and develops a baseline scenario to 2020. Moreover, the intent of this report is also to highlight available sources of data in India for the residential and transport sectors. The analysis as performed in this way reveals several interesting features of energy use in India. In the residential sector, an analysis of patterns of energy use and particular end uses shows that biomass (wood), which has traditionally been the main source of primary energy used in households, will stabilize in absolute terms. Meanwhile, due to the forces of urbanization and increased use of commercial fuels, the relative significance of biomass will be greatly diminished by 2020. At the same time, per household residential electricity consumption will likely quadruple in the 20 years between 2000 and 2020. In fact, primary electricity use will increase more rapidly than any other major fuel -- even more than oil, in spite of the fact that transport is the most rapidly growing sector. The growth in electricity demand implies that chronic outages are to be expected unless drastic improvements are made both to the efficiency of the power infrastructure and to electric end uses and industrial processes. In the transport sector, the rapid growth in personal vehicle sales indicates strong energy growth in that area. Energy use by cars is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 11percent, increasing demand for oil considerably. In addition, oil consumption used for freight transport will also continue to increase .

  7. Overview of Existing and Future Residential Use Cases for Connected Thermostats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotondo, Julia [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Johnson, Robert [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Gonzalez, Nancy [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Waranowski, Alexandra [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Badger, Chris [Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, Burlington, VT (United States); Lange, Nick [Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, Burlington, VT (United States); Goldman, Ethan [Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, Burlington, VT (United States); Foster, Rebecca [Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, Burlington, VT (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This paper is intended to help inform future technology deployment opportunities for connected thermostats (CTs), based on investigation and review of the U.S. residential housing and CT markets, as well as existing, emerging, and future use cases for CT hardware and CT-generated data. The CT market has experienced tremendous growth over the last 5 years—both in terms of the number of units sold and the number of firms offering competing products—and can be characterized by its rapid pace of technological innovation. Despite many assuming CTs would become powerful tools for increasing comfort while saving energy, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the actual energy and cost savings that are likely to be realized from deployment of CTs, particularly under different conditions.

  8. Overview of Existing and Future Residential Use Cases for Connected Thermostats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotondo, Julia [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Johnson, Robert [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Gonzales, Nancy [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Waranowski, Alexandra [Energetics Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Badger, Chris [Vermont Energy Investment Corp., Burlington, VT (United States); Lange, Nack [Vermont Energy Investment Corp., Burlington, VT (United States); Goldman, Ethan [Vermont Energy Investment Corp., Burlington, VT (United States); Foster, Rebecca [Vermont Energy Investment Corp., Burlington, VT (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This paper is intended to help inform future technology deployment opportunities for connected thermostats (CTs), based on investigation and review of the U.S. residential housing and CT markets, as well as existing, emerging, and future use cases for CT hardware and CT-generated data. The CT market has experienced tremendous growth over the last five years — both in terms of the number of units sold and the number of firms offering competing products — and can be characterized by its rapid pace of technological innovation. Despite many assuming CTs would become powerful tools for increasing comfort while saving energy, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the actual energy and cost savings that are likely to be realized from deployment of CTs, particularly under different conditions.

  9. Residential radon in Finland: sources, variation, modelling and dose comparisons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arvela, H

    1995-09-01

    The study deals with sources of indoor radon in Finland, seasonal variations in radon concentration, the effect of house construction and ventilation and also with the radiation dose from indoor radon and terrestrial gamma radiation. The results are based on radon measurements in approximately 4000 dwellings and on air exchange measurements in 250 dwellings as well as on model calculations. The results confirm that convective soil air flow is by far the most important source of indoor radon in Finnish low-rise residential housing. (97 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.).

  10. Residential radon in Finland: sources, variation, modelling and dose comparisons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvela, H.

    1995-09-01

    The study deals with sources of indoor radon in Finland, seasonal variations in radon concentration, the effect of house construction and ventilation and also with the radiation dose from indoor radon and terrestrial gamma radiation. The results are based on radon measurements in approximately 4000 dwellings and on air exchange measurements in 250 dwellings as well as on model calculations. The results confirm that convective soil air flow is by far the most important source of indoor radon in Finnish low-rise residential housing. (97 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.)

  11. Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach

    OpenAIRE

    L. L. Ivy-Yap; H. A. Bekhet

    2014-01-01

    As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 period. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential secto...

  12. A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; de Vries, Bert; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges. (author)

  13. A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    are that in the future (2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s) are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that the profile...

  14. Future air conditioning energy consumption in developing countries and what can be done about it: the potential of efficiency in the residential sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E. [Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interest to energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of this product, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paper addresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residential electricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent history has shown that air conditioner ownership grows more rapidly than economic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percent of urban Chinese households owned an air conditioner; by 2003 this number rose to 62 %. The evidence suggests a similar explosion of air conditioner use in many other countries is not far behind. Room air conditioner purchases in India are currently growing at 20 % per year, with about half of these purchases attributed to the residential sector. This paper draws on two distinct methodological elements to assess future residential air conditioner 'business as usual' electricity consumption by country/region and to consider specific alternative 'high efficiency' scenarios. The first component is an econometric ownership and use model based on household income, climate and demographic parameters. The second combines ownership forecasts and stock accounting with geographically specific efficiency scenarios within a unique analysis framework (BUENAS) developed by LBNL. The efficiency scenario module considers current efficiency baselines, available technologies, and achievable timelines for development of market transformation programs, such as minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) and labeling programs. The result is a detailed set of consumption and emissions scenarios for residential air conditioning.

  15. Advertising Model of Residential Real Estate Object in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Mazaj

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the year 2000, during the period of economic growth, the real estate market has been rapidly expanding. During this period advertising of real estate objects was implemented using one set of similar channels (press advertising, Internet advertising, leaflets with contact information of real estate agents and others, however the start of the economic recession has intensified the competition in the market and forced companies to search for new advertising means or to diversify the advertising package. The article presents real estate property, as a product, one of the marketing components – including advertising, conclusions and suggestions based on conducted surveys and a model for advertising the residential real estate objects.Article in Lithuanian

  16. Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimoda, Yoshiyuki; Yamaguchi, Yukio; Okamura, Tomo; Taniguchi, Ayako; Yamaguchi, Yohei

    2010-01-01

    A model is developed that simulates nationwide energy consumption of the residential sector by considering the diversity of household and building types. Since this model can simulate the energy consumption for each household and building category by dynamic energy use based on the schedule of the occupants' activities and a heating and cooling load calculation model, various kinds of energy-saving policies can be evaluated with considerable accuracy. In addition, the average energy efficiency of major electric appliances used in the residential sector and the percentages of housing insulation levels of existing houses is predicted by the 'stock transition model.' In this paper, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the Japanese residential sector until 2025 are predicted. For example, as a business - as-usual (BAU) case, CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 7% from the 1990 level. Also evaluated are mitigation measures such as the energy efficiency standard for home electric appliances, thermal insulation code, reduction of standby power, high-efficiency water heaters, energy-efficient behavior of occupants, and dissemination of photovoltaic panels.

  17. Mixed logit model of intended residential mobility in renovated historical blocks in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, W.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Li, H.; Feng, T.

    2016-01-01

    Using data from 8 historical blocks in China, the influence of socialdemographic characteristics and residential satisfaction on intended residentialmobility is analysed. The results of a mixed logit model indicate that higher residential satisfaction will lead to a lower intention to move house,

  18. Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Han; Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Ru, Muye; Chen, Yuanchen; Lin, Nan; Su, Shu; Zhuo, Shaojie; Zhong, Qirui; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Space-for-time substitution was tested for seasonality of residential energy. • Regression models were developed to simulate global residential energy consumption. • Factors affecting the temporal trend in residential energy use were identified. • Climate warming will induce changes in residential energy use and emissions. - Abstract: Energy data are often reported on an annual basis. To address the climate and health impacts of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, seasonally resolved emissions inventories are needed. The seasonality of energy consumption is most affected by consumption in the residential sector. In this study, a set of regression models were developed based on temperature-related variables and a series of socioeconomic parameters to quantify global electricity and fuel consumption for the residential sector. The models were evaluated against observations and applied to simulate monthly changes in residential energy consumption and the resultant emissions of air pollutants. Changes in energy consumption are strongly affected by economic prosperity and population growth. Climate change, electricity prices, and urbanization also affect energy use. Climate warming will cause a net increase in electricity consumption and a decrease in fuel consumption by the residential sector. Consequently, emissions of CO_2, SO_2, and Hg are predicted to decrease, while emissions of incomplete combustion products are expected to increase. These changes vary regionally.

  19. The role of hydrogen as a future solution to energetic and environmental problems for residential buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badea, G.; Felseghi, R. A.; Aşchilean, I.; Rǎboacǎ, S. M.; Şoimoşan, T.

    2017-12-01

    The concept of sustainable development aims to meet the needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations. In achieving the desideratum "low-carbon energy system", in the domain of energy production, the use of innovative low-carbon technologies providing maximum efficiency and minimum pollution is required. Such technology is the fuel cell; as these will be developed, it will become a reality to obtain the energy based on hydrogen. Thus, hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using different forms of renewable resources becomes a secure and sustainable energy alternative. In this context, in the present paper, a comparative study of two different hybrid power generation systems for residential building placed in Cluj-Napoca was made. In these energy systems have been integrated renewable energies (photovoltaic panels and wind turbine), backup and storage system based on hydrogen (fuel cell, electrolyser and hydrogen storage tank), and, respectively, backup and storage system based on traditional technologies (diesel generator and battery). The software iHOGA was used to simulate the operating performance of the two hybrid systems. The aim of this study was to compare energy, environmental and economic performances of these two systems and to define possible future scenarios of competitiveness between traditional and new innovative technologies. After analyzing and comparing the results of simulations, it can be concluded that the fuel cells technology along with hydrogen, integrated in a hybrid system, may be the key to energy production systems with high energy efficiency, making possible an increased capitalization of renewable energy which have a low environmental impact.

  20. Medication management policy, practice and research in Australian residential aged care: Current and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sluggett, Janet K; Ilomäki, Jenni; Seaman, Karla L; Corlis, Megan; Bell, J Simon

    2017-02-01

    Eight percent of Australians aged 65 years and over receive residential aged care each year. Residents are increasingly older, frailer and have complex care needs on entry to residential aged care. Up to 63% of Australian residents of aged care facilities take nine or more medications regularly. Together, these factors place residents at high risk of adverse drug events. This paper reviews medication-related policies, practices and research in Australian residential aged care. Complex processes underpin prescribing, supply and administration of medications in aged care facilities. A broad range of policies and resources are available to assist health professionals, aged care facilities and residents to optimise medication management. These include national guiding principles, a standardised national medication chart, clinical medication reviews and facility accreditation standards. Recent Australian interventions have improved medication use in residential aged care facilities. Generating evidence for prescribing and deprescribing that is specific to residential aged care, health workforce reform, medication-related quality indicators and inter-professional education in aged care are important steps toward optimising medication use in this setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  2. Spatial emission modelling for residential wood combustion in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Brandt, Jørgen

    2016-01-01

    Residential wood combustion (RWC) is a major contributor to atmospheric pollution especially for particulate matter. Air pollution has significant impact on human health, and it is therefore important to know the human exposure. For this purpose, it is necessary with a detailed high resolution sp...

  3. Integrated Payment and Delivery Models Offer Opportunities and Challenges for Residential Care Facilities

    OpenAIRE

    Grabowski, David C.; Caudry, Daryl J.; Dean, Katie M.; Stevenson, David G.

    2015-01-01

    Under health care reform, a series of new financing and delivery models are being piloted to integrate health and long-term care services for older adults. To date, these programs have not encompassed residential care facilities, with most programs focusing on long-term care recipients in the community or the nursing home. Our analyses indicate that individuals living in residential care facilities have similarly high rates of chronic illness and Medicare utilization when compared with simila...

  4. The Relationship between Residential Electricity Consumption and Income: A Piecewise Linear Model with Panel Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available There are many uncertainties and risks in residential electricity consumption associated with economic development. Knowledge of the relationship between residential electricity consumption and its key determinant—income—is important to the sustainable development of the electric power industry. Using panel data from 30 provinces for the 1995–2012 period, this study investigates how residential electricity consumption changes as incomes increase in China. Previous studies typically used linear or quadratic double-logarithmic models imposing ex ante restrictions on the indistinct relationship between residential electricity consumption and income. Contrary to those models, we employed a reduced piecewise linear model that is self-adaptive and highly flexible and circumvents the problem of “prior restrictions”. Robust tests of different segment specifications and regression methods are performed to ensure the validity of the research. The results provide strong evidence that the income elasticity was approximately one, and it remained stable throughout the estimation period. The income threshold at which residential electricity consumption automatically remains stable or slows has not been reached. To ensure the sustainable development of the electric power industry, introducing higher energy efficiency standards for electrical appliances and improving income levels are vital. Government should also emphasize electricity conservation in the industrial sector rather than in residential sector.

  5. An evaluation model for indoor environmental quality (IEQ) acceptance in residential buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, A.C.K.; Mui, K.W.; Wong, L.T.; Law, L.Y.

    2009-01-01

    The indoor environmental quality (IEQ) in residential buildings is examined from the prospect of an occupant's acceptance in four aspects: thermal comfort, indoor air quality, noise level and illumination level. Based on the evaluations by 125 occupants living in 32 typical residential apartments in Hong Kong, this study proposes empirical expressions to approximate the overall IEQ acceptance with respect to four contributors, namely operative temperature, carbon dioxide concentration, equivalent noise level and illumination level, via a multivariate logistic regression model. A range of IEQ acceptances for regular residential conditions is determined and the dependence of the predicted overall IEQ acceptance on the variations of the contributors is discussed. The proposed overall IEQ acceptance can be used as a quantitative assessment criterion for similar residential environments where an occupant's evaluation is expected. (author)

  6. Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: An indicator of residential electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Rodríguez, M.A.; Santiago, I.; Trillo-Montero, D.; Torriti, J.; Moreno-Munoz, A.

    2013-01-01

    The growing energy consumption in the residential sector represents about 30% of global demand. This calls for Demand Side Management solutions propelling change in behaviors of end consumers, with the aim to reduce overall consumption as well as shift it to periods in which demand is lower and where the cost of generating energy is lower. Demand Side Management solutions require detailed knowledge about the patterns of energy consumption. The profile of electricity demand in the residential sector is highly correlated with the time of active occupancy of the dwellings; therefore in this study the occupancy patterns in Spanish properties was determined using the 2009–2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), conducted by the National Statistical Institute of Spain. The survey identifies three peaks in active occupancy, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. This information has been used to input into a stochastic model which generates active occupancy profiles of dwellings, with the aim to simulate domestic electricity consumption. TUS data were also used to identify which appliance-related activities could be considered for Demand Side Management solutions during the three peaks of occupancy. -- Highlights: •Active occupancy profiles of Spanish dwellings has been obtained and modeled from Time Use Survey data. •Occupancy profiles resulting from the model can be used to model domestic energy consumption. •The presence of three peaks of active occupation was verified, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. •Manual and incentive-based DSM programmes are considered the most suitable for Spanish dwellings. •TV electricity consumption becomes important at aggregate level

  7. Combined heat and power generation with fuel cells in residential buildings in the future energy system; Kraft-Waerme-Kopplung mit Brennstoffzellen in Wohngebaeuden im zukuenftigen Energiesystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jungbluth, C.H.

    2007-04-27

    Combined heat and power generation (CHP) is regarded as one of the cornerstones of a future sustainable energy system. The application of this approach can be substantially extended by employing fuel cell technologies in small units for supplying heat to residential buildings. This could create an additional market for combined heat and power generation corresponding to approx. 25% of the final energy demand in Germany today. In parallel, the extensive application of distributed fuel cell systems in residential buildings would have substantial effects on energy infrastructures, primary energy demand, the energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions. It is the aim of the present study to quantify these effects via scenario modelling of energy demand and supply for Germany up to the year 2050. Two scenarios, reference and ecological commitment, are set up, and the application and operation of fuel cell plants in the future stock of residential buildings is simulated by a bottom-up approach. A model of the building stock was developed for this purpose, consisting of 213 types of reference buildings, as well as detailed simulation models of the plant operation modes. The aim was, furthermore, to identify economically and ecologically optimised plant designs and operation modes for fuel cells in residential buildings. Under the assumed conditions of the energy economy, economically optimised plant sizes for typical one- or two-family homes are in the range of a generating capacity of a few hundred watts of electrical power. Plant sizes of 2 to 4.7 kW{sub el} as discussed today are only economically feasible in multifamily dwellings. The abolition of the CHP bonus reduces profitability, especially for larger plants operated by contractors. In future, special strategies for power generation and supply can be an economically useful addition for the heat-oriented operation mode of fuel cells. On the basis of the assumed conditions of the energy economy, a technical potential for

  8. Effects of Heterogeneity in Residential Preferences on an Agent-Based Model of Urban Sprawl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel G. Brown

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability of agent-based models (ABMs to represent heterogeneity in the characteristics and behaviors of actors enables analyses about the implications of this heterogeneity for system behavior. The importance of heterogeneity in the specification of ABMs, however, creates new demands for empirical support. An earlier analysis of a survey of residential preferences within southeastern Michigan revealed seven groups of residents with similar preferences on similar characteristics of location. In this paper, we present an ABM that represents the process of residential development within an urban system and run it for a hypothetical pattern of environmental variation. Residential locations are selected by residential agents, who evaluate locations on the basis of preference for nearness to urban services, including jobs, aesthetic quality of the landscape, and their similarity to their neighbors. We populate our ABM with a population of residential preferences drawn from the survey results in five different ways: (1 preferences drawn at random; (2 equal preferences based on the mean from the entire survey sample; (3 preferences drawn from a single distribution, whose mean and standard deviation are derived from the survey sample; (4 equal preferences within each of seven groups, based on the group means; and (5 preferences drawn from distributions for each of seven groups, defined by group means and standard deviations. Model sensitivity analysis, based on multiple runs of our model under each case, revealed that adding heterogeneity to agents has a significant effect on model outcomes, measured by aggregate patterns of development sprawl and clustering.

  9. The Application of Classical and Neural Regression Models for the Valuation of Residential Real Estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mach Łukasz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The research process aimed at building regression models, which helps to valuate residential real estate, is presented in the following article. Two widely used computational tools i.e. the classical multiple regression and regression models of artificial neural networks were used in order to build models. An attempt to define the utilitarian usefulness of the above-mentioned tools and comparative analysis of them is the aim of the conducted research. Data used for conducting analyses refers to the secondary transactional residential real estate market.

  10. The project finance model in the supply of residential and commercial premises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Juričić

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A supply of dwellings greater than the demand, a reduction in the availability of housing loans and increased credit risk, caused, inter alia, by the financial crisis: these are the basic features of today’s residential property and commercial premises markets in Croatia today. Built but unsold housing units have exposed private investors, who have organised the supply of units within the balance sheet of their firms, to significant risk of underinvestment. The materialisation of this risk is most manifested in the impossibility of funding the core business because of loans that they have agreed on for the construction of dwelling units meant for sale on the market. The paper then proposes a model that, if it were applied, could insure investors to a greater extent against the risk of underinvestment. The supply of dwelling units with protected rentals by the local public sector organised in the traditional manner, i.e. according to a model in which the local public sector figures in the role of investor, distributes the burden of development costs onto the future generations as well. However, practice has shown that traditional models inequitably expose future generations to the risk of a reduction in the quality of this kind of public service. From this point of view the proposed model transfers to the future generation not only the costs but also the obligations to secure equal qualities of public service in such a way that the private investor long-term assumes the risk of the availability of public building.The problem in this kind of organisation of the supply of a public service is double taxation via VAT, changes in the law concerning which are accordingly proposed.

  11. Emergency residential care settings: A model for service assessment and design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graça, João; Calheiros, Maria Manuela; Patrício, Joana Nunes; Magalhães, Eunice Vieira

    2018-02-01

    There have been calls for uncovering the "black box" of residential care services, with a particular need for research focusing on emergency care settings for children and youth in danger. In fact, the strikingly scant empirical attention that these settings have received so far contrasts with the role that they often play as gateway into the child welfare system. To answer these calls, this work presents and tests a framework for assessing a service model in residential emergency care. It comprises seven studies which address a set of different focal areas (e.g., service logic model; care experiences), informants (e.g., case records; staff; children/youth), and service components (e.g., case assessment/evaluation; intervention; placement/referral). Drawing on this process-consultation approach, the work proposes a set of key challenges for emergency residential care in terms of service improvement and development, and calls for further research targeting more care units and different types of residential care services. These findings offer a contribution to inform evidence-based practice and policy in service models of residential care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modernizing residential heating in Russia: End-use practices, legal developments, and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korppoo, Anna; Korobova, Nina

    2012-01-01

    This article explores the significance of modernization policies concerning Russia’s technically obsolete but socially important residential heating sector, focusing on the 2009 energy efficiency framework law and its prospects for implementation. Ownership and control structures are in flux throughout the heating sector chain. Inefficiencies, causing low service quality and rising prices, have already started eroding the market share of district heating, despite its potential benefits. End-use management practices – such as lack of metering, communal billing, and low prices that do not cover production costs – reduce consumer incentives to cut consumption. The diversity of end-users adds to the complexity of focused measures like energy-saving contracts. However, end-use sector reforms such as mandatory meter installation and increasing prices – even if socially acceptable and fully implemented – cannot alone provide the massive investments required. More appropriate is sector-wide reform with the government’s financial participation – especially if consumer efforts can yield better service quality. - Highlights: ► We analyze Russia’s energy efficiency policy on residential heating sector. ► Institutional structures and practices reduce incentives to cut consumption. ► Meter installation and increasing prices cannot deliver investments required. ► Government led sector-wide reform is required, linked to better service quality.

  13. Management models for the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonker, Jan; Eskildsen, Jacob Kjær

    2007-01-01

    aspect of the company's operations such as processes; others are based on a holistic view of the organisation. This paper is based on a book project (2006-2007) entitled "Management Models for the Future" (Springer Verlag, Heidelberg - Germany) aiming to harvest twelve new company-based models from......In the last decades a growing number of generic management models (e.g. EFQM, INK, ISO 9000:2000) has emerged. All these models are based on the ambition to stipulate the road to conventional and contemporary forms of organizational excellence. Some of the models aim to do so with regard to one...

  14. Flood vulnerability assessment of residential buildings by explicit damage process modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2015-01-01

    The present paper introduces a vulnerability modelling approach for residential buildings in flood. The modelling approach explicitly considers relevant damage processes, i.e. water infiltration into the building, mechanical failure of components in the building envelope and damage from water...

  15. Future Air Conditioning Energy Consumption in Developing Countriesand what can be done about it: The Potential of Efficiency in theResidential Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E.

    2007-05-01

    The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interestto energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of thisproduct, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paperaddresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residentialelectricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent historyhas shown that air conditioner ownership can grow grows more rapidly thaneconomic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percentof urban Chinese households owned an air conditioner; by 2003 this numberrose to 62 percent. The evidence suggests a similar explosion of airconditioner use in many other countries is not far behind. Room airconditioner purchases in India are currently growing at 20 percent peryear, with about half of these purchases attributed to the residentialsector. This paper draws on two distinct methodological elements toassess future residential air conditioner 'business as usual' electricityconsumption by country/region and to consider specific alternative 'highefficiency' scenarios. The first component is an econometric ownershipand use model based on household income, climate and demographicparameters. The second combines ownership forecasts and stock accountingwith geographically specific efficiency scenarios within a uniqueanalysis framework (BUENAS) developed by LBNL. The efficiency scenariomodule considers current efficiency baselines, available technologies,and achievable timelines for development of market transformationprograms, such as minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) andlabeling programs. The result is a detailed set of consumption andemissions scenarios for residential air conditioning.

  16. A Prediction Mechanism of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israr Ullah

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Internet of Things (IoT is considered as one of the future disruptive technologies, which has the potential to bring positive change in human lifestyle and uplift living standards. Many IoT-based applications have been designed in various fields, e.g., security, health, education, manufacturing, transportation, etc. IoT has transformed conventional homes into Smart homes. By attaching small IoT devices to various appliances, we cannot only monitor but also control indoor environment as per user demand. Intelligent IoT devices can also be used for optimal energy utilization by operating the associated equipment only when it is needed. In this paper, we have proposed a Hidden Markov Model based algorithm to predict energy consumption in Korean residential buildings using data collected through smart meters. We have used energy consumption data collected from four multi-storied buildings located in Seoul, South Korea for model validation and results analysis. Proposed model prediction results are compared with three well-known prediction algorithms i.e., Support Vector Machine (SVM, Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Comparative analysis shows that our proposed model achieves 2.96 % better than ANN results in terms of root mean square error metric, 6.09 % better than SVM and 9.03 % better than CART results. To further establish and validate prediction results of our proposed model, we have performed temporal granularity analysis. For this purpose, we have evaluated our proposed model for hourly, daily and weekly data aggregation. Prediction accuracy in terms of root mean square error metric for hourly, daily and weekly data is 2.62, 1.54 and 0.46, respectively. This shows that our model prediction accuracy improves for coarse grain data. Higher prediction accuracy gives us confidence to further explore its application in building control systems for achieving better energy efficiency.

  17. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  18. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  19. Optimization Models and Methods for Demand-Side Management of Residential Users: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antimo Barbato

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The residential sector is currently one of the major contributors to the global energy balance. However, the energy demand of residential users has been so far largely uncontrollable and inelastic with respect to the power grid conditions. With the massive introduction of renewable energy sources and the large variations in energy flows, also the residential sector is required to provide some flexibility in energy use so as to contribute to the stability and efficiency of the electric system. To address this issue, demand management mechanisms can be used to optimally manage the energy resources of customers and their energy demand profiles. A very promising technique is represented by demand-side management (DSM, which consists in a proactive method aimed at making users energy-efficient in the long term. In this paper, we survey the most relevant studies on optimization methods for DSM of residential consumers. Specifically, we review the related literature according to three axes defining contrasting characteristics of the schemes proposed: DSM for individual users versus DSM for cooperative consumers, deterministic DSM versus stochastic DSM and day-ahead DSM versus real-time DSM. Based on this classification, we provide a big picture of the key features of different approaches and techniques and discuss future research directions.

  20. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  1. Integrated Payment And Delivery Models Offer Opportunities And Challenges For Residential Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, David C; Caudry, Daryl J; Dean, Katie M; Stevenson, David G

    2015-10-01

    Under health care reform, new financing and delivery models are being piloted to integrate health and long-term care services for older adults. Programs using these models generally have not included residential care facilities. Instead, most of them have focused on long-term care recipients in the community or the nursing home. Our analyses indicate that individuals living in residential care facilities have similarly high rates of chronic illness and Medicare utilization when compared with matched individuals in the community and nursing home, and rates of functional dependency that fall between those of their counterparts in the other two settings. These results suggest that the residential care facility population could benefit greatly from models that coordinated health and long-term care services. However, few providers have invested in the infrastructure needed to support integrated delivery models. Challenges to greater care integration include the private-pay basis for residential care facility services, which precludes shared savings from reduced Medicare costs, and residents' preference for living in a home-like, noninstitutional environment. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  2. Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanzadeh Nafari, Roozbeh; Amadio, Mattia; Ngo, Tuan; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2017-07-01

    The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth-damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error), especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

  3. Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hasanzadeh Nafari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT, on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA, which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth–damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error, especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

  4. Comparison of Four Probabilistic Models (CARES, Calendex, ConsEspo, SHEDS) to Estimate Aggregate Residential Exposures to Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Two deterministic models (US EPA’s Office of Pesticide Programs Residential Standard Operating Procedures (OPP Residential SOPs) and Draft Protocol for Measuring Children’s Non-Occupational Exposure to Pesticides by all Relevant Pathways (Draft Protocol)) and four probabilistic mo...

  5. Major models and data sources for residential and commercial sector energy conservation analysis. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-09-01

    Major models and data sources are reviewed that can be used for energy-conservation analysis in the residential and commercial sectors to provide an introduction to the information that can or is available to DOE in order to further its efforts in analyzing and quantifying their policy and program requirements. Models and data sources examined in the residential sector are: ORNL Residential Energy Model; BECOM; NEPOOL; MATH/CHRDS; NIECS; Energy Consumption Data Base: Household Sector; Patterns of Energy Use by Electrical Appliances Data Base; Annual Housing Survey; 1970 Census of Housing; AIA Research Corporation Data Base; RECS; Solar Market Development Model; and ORNL Buildings Energy Use Data Book. Models and data sources examined in the commercial sector are: ORNL Commercial Sector Model of Energy Demand; BECOM; NEPOOL; Energy Consumption Data Base: Commercial Sector; F.W. Dodge Data Base; NFIB Energy Report for Small Businesses; ADL Commercial Sector Energy Use Data Base; AIA Research Corporation Data Base; Nonresidential Buildings Surveys of Energy Consumption; General Electric Co: Commercial Sector Data Base; The BOMA Commercial Sector Data Base; The Tishman-Syska and Hennessy Data Base; The NEMA Commercial Sector Data Base; ORNL Buildings Energy Use Data Book; and Solar Market Development Model. Purpose; basis for model structure; policy variables and parameters; level of regional, sectoral, and fuels detail; outputs; input requirements; sources of data; computer accessibility and requirements; and a bibliography are provided for each model and data source.

  6. A Hybrid dasymetric and machine learning approach to high-resolution residential electricity consumption modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, April M [ORNL; Nagle, Nicholas N [ORNL; Piburn, Jesse O [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL; McManamay, Ryan A [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for detailed information regarding residential energy consumption patterns has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy consumption, the majority of techniques are highly dependent on region-specific data sources and often require building- or dwelling-level details that are not publicly available for many regions in the United States. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more general hybrid approach to high-resolution residential electricity consumption modeling by merging a dasymetric model with a complementary machine learning algorithm. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model both is applicable to a wide range of regions and considers errors in input data sources.

  7. Selective classification and quantification model of C&D waste from material resources consumed in residential building construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercader-Moyano, Pilar; Ramírez-de-Arellano-Agudo, Antonio

    2013-05-01

    The unfortunate economic situation involving Spain and the European Union is, among other factors, the result of intensive construction activity over recent years. The excessive consumption of natural resources, together with the impact caused by the uncontrolled dumping of untreated C&D waste in illegal landfills have caused environmental pollution and a deterioration of the landscape. The objective of this research was to generate a selective classification and quantification model of C&D waste based on the material resources consumed in the construction of residential buildings, either new or renovated, namely the Conventional Constructive Model (CCM). A practical example carried out on ten residential buildings in Seville, Spain, enabled the identification and quantification of the C&D waste generated in their construction and the origin of the waste, in terms of the building material from which it originated and its impact for every m(2) constructed. This model enables other researchers to establish comparisons between the various improvements proposed for the minimization of the environmental impact produced by building a CCM, new corrective measures to be proposed in future policies that regulate the production and management of C&D waste generated in construction from the design stage to the completion of the construction process, and the establishment of sustainable management for C&D waste and for the selection of materials for the construction on projected or renovated buildings.

  8. Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ots

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012, as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source. The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist – all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than

  9. Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ots, Riinu; Heal, Mathew R.; Young, Dominique E.; Williams, Leah R.; Allan, James D.; Nemitz, Eiko; Di Marco, Chiara; Detournay, Anais; Xu, Lu; Ng, Nga L.; Coe, Hugh; Herndon, Scott C.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Green, David C.; Kuenen, Jeroen J. P.; Reis, Stefan; Vieno, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM) from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal) burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012), as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source). The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA) component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist - all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC) concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than inventory

  10. Development of a model of situational leadership in residential care for older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Brighide M; McCormack, Brendan; McCance, Tanya

    2011-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to present the process used to develop a composite model of situational leadership enacted within a person-centred nursing framework in residential care. Transforming the culture of the residential unit from a restrictive institution to a vibrant community of older adults requires transformational leadership. Situational leadership is one form of transformational leadership, which claims that there is not one leadership style that works in all situations. A model of situational leadership in residential care was developed through a series of systematic steps that identified direct linkages between situational leadership and the main constructs of the Person-Centred Nursing Framework. The process included reviewing the evidence, undertaking a comparative analysis, identifying key concepts, connecting the concepts and developing a model. A conceptual model is presented which integrates person-centredness with leadership thinking in order to effectively impact on the follower's performance in managing the care environment and delivering person-centred care. Currently the model is being utilized in an action research study to evaluate the role of leaders in the practice setting of long-term care. While some of the connecting concepts have been identified in the present study, more work needs to be done to unravel these connections in further study of leaders in practice. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Cullenward, Danny; Davidian, Danielle; Weyant, John P.

    2013-01-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention. This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%). - Highlights: • This paper examines the impact of consumer preferences on final energy in the Commercial and Residential sectors of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). • We describe the conceptual and empirical basis for modeling consumer technology choice in NEMS. • We offer a range of alternative parameters to show the energy demand sensitivity to technology choice. • We show there are significant potential savings available in both building sectors. • Because the model uses its own

  12. A multi-scale adaptive model of residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzan, Farbod; Jafari, Mohsen A.; Gong, Jie; Farzan, Farnaz; Stryker, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We extend an energy demand model to investigate changes in behavioral and usage patterns. • The model is capable of analyzing why demand behaves the way it does. • The model empowers decision makers to investigate DSM strategies and effectiveness. • The model provides means to measure the effect of energy prices on daily profile. • The model considers the coupling effects of adopting multiple new technologies. - Abstract: In this paper, we extend a previously developed bottom-up energy demand model such that the model can be used to determine changes in behavioral and energy usage patterns of a community when: (i) new load patterns from Plug-in Electrical Vehicles (PEV) or other devices are introduced; (ii) new technologies and smart devices are used within premises; and (iii) new Demand Side Management (DSM) strategies, such as price responsive demand are implemented. Unlike time series forecasting methods that solely rely on historical data, the model only uses a minimal amount of data at the atomic level for its basic constructs. These basic constructs can be integrated into a household unit or a community model using rules and connectors that are, in principle, flexible and can be altered according to the type of questions that need to be answered. Furthermore, the embedded dynamics of the model works on the basis of: (i) Markovian stochastic model for simulating human activities, (ii) Bayesian and logistic technology adoption models, and (iii) optimization, and rule-based models to respond to price signals without compromising users’ comfort. The proposed model is not intended to replace traditional forecasting models. Instead it provides an analytical framework that can be used at the design stage of new products and communities to evaluate design alternatives. The framework can also be used to answer questions such as why demand behaves the way it does by examining demands at different scales and by playing What-If games. These

  13. Model for future waste generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundqvist, Jan-Olov; Stenmarck, Aasa; Ekvall, Tomas

    2010-06-15

    The research presented in this report is part of the effort to estimate future Swedish waste quantities in the research programme Towards Sustainable Waste Management. More specifically, we estimate future waste coefficients that are designed to be fed into EMEC, which describes the Swedish economy in terms of 26 industrial sectors, a public sector, and households. Production in the model of industry and public sector requires input of labour, capital, energy, and other commodities. With waste-intensity coefficients added to each production parameter in each sector, EMEC can calculate the future waste quantities generated in different economic scenarios. To produce the waste-intensity coefficients, we make a survey of the current Swedish waste statistics. For each waste category from each sector we estimate whether the quantity depends primarily on the production in the sector, on the inputs of commodities, on the depreciation of capital goods, or on the size of the workforce in the sector. We calculate current waste-intensity coefficients by dividing the waste quantities by the parameter(s) to which they are assigned. We also present five different scenarios to describe how the waste intensity can develop until the year 2030. As far as possible and when deemed to be relevant, we have set the industrial waste generation to depend on the use of a commodity or an energy carrier. The quantity of spent vehicles and most equipment is set to depend on the depreciation of capital goods. Some wastes have been allocated to the staff, for example household waste from business. The quantities of wastes from households have a similar approach where every waste category is assigned to a combination of 26 different commodities

  14. C-Vine copula mixture model for clustering of residential electrical load pattern data

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, M; Konstantelos, I; Strbac, G

    2016-01-01

    The ongoing deployment of residential smart meters in numerous jurisdictions has led to an influx of electricity consumption data. This information presents a valuable opportunity to suppliers for better understanding their customer base and designing more effective tariff structures. In the past, various clustering methods have been proposed for meaningful customer partitioning. This paper presents a novel finite mixture modeling framework based on C-vine copulas (CVMM) for carrying out cons...

  15. Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertus, Mark J.

    The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

  16. Cost-benefit assessment of energy efficiency investments: Accounting for future resources, savings and risks in the Australian residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, J.; Meyrick, B.; Sivaraman, D.; Horne, R.E.; Berry, M.

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on the impact of the discount rate on cost-benefit assessment of investment options for residential building efficiency. An integrated thermal modeling, life cycle costing approach is applied to an extensive sample of dominant house designs for Australian conditions. The relative significance of predicted thermal performance and the applied discount rate on the Present Value of energy savings from alternative investment scenarios is investigated. Costs and benefits are also evaluated at the economy-wide scale, including carbon pricing considerations, and for a test-case household faced with alternative investment options at the point of construction. The influence of the applied discount rate on produced cost-benefit calculations is investigated, as is the interaction between critical cost-benefit input parameters. Findings support that the discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in estimates about costs and benefits of higher standards of efficiency in the residential sector. Results demonstrate that agreement on a low discount rate based on sustainability principals would prioritise those projects with significant environmental benefits. - Highlights: ► High thermal efficiency is a key strategy to limit energy use in buildings. ► Integrated thermal modeling—life-cycle costing methods are applied to dominant house designs. ► The discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in observed costs. ► The selection of optimal performance investment options depends on the discount rate. ► Application of a discount rate of 3.5% or lower favours energy saving projects

  17. Argos: Residential end-use simulation model for load management strategy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capasso, A.; Lamedica, R.; Prudenzi, A.

    1992-01-01

    In recent years, load management (LM) strategies, aimed at the optimization of available energy resources, as well as, the reduction of investments for new power plants, have been applied worldwide in residential end-use assessments. However, the forecasting of LM strategy impacts on the residential sector is very complex because it is based on a preliminary evaluation of the customers' proclivity to adapt their load characteristics to utility aims. In order to reduce load analysis requirements, which are substantial due to the need for thorough statistical analyses, complex field tests and measurements, the availability of models taking into account customer behavioural aspects is of paramount importance. This paper illustrates a simulation model which allows the performance of numerical evaluations concerning the effectiveness of some LM strategies applied to a residential end-use area load profile as previously determined by the aggregation of the contributions of individual households. This model enabled the evaluation of the impact, on the load profile, of a time-of-day tariff such as that recently introduced in Italy

  18. Towards a Residential Air-Conditioner Usage Model for Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Goldsworthy

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Realistic models of occupant behaviour in relation to air-conditioner (a/c use are fundamentally important for developing accurate building energy simulation tools. In Australia and elsewhere, such simulation tools are inextricably bound both in legislation and in the design of new technology, electricity infrastructure and regulatory schemes. An increasing number of studies in the literature confirm just how important occupants are in determining overall energy consumption, but obtaining the data on which to build behaviour models is a non-trivial task. Here data is presented on air-conditioner usage derived from three different types of case study analyses. These are: (i use of aggregate energy consumption data coupled with weather, demographic and building statistics across Australia to estimate key predictors of energy use at the aggregate level; (ii use of survey data to determine characteristic a/c switch on/off behaviours and usage frequencies; and (iii use of detailed household level sub-circuit monitoring from 140 households to determine a/c switch on/off probabilities and their dependence on different building and occupant parameters. These case studies are used to assess the difficulties associated with translation of different forms of individual, aggregate and survey based information into a/c behaviour simulation models. Finally a method of linking the data gathering methodologies with the model development is suggested. This method would combine whole-of-house “smart”-meter data measurements with linked targeted occupant surveying.

  19. A three-dimensional model of residential energy consumer archetypes for local energy policy design in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Tao; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Aickelin, Uwe

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews major studies in three traditional lines of research in residential energy consumption in the UK, i.e. economic/infrastructure, behaviour, and load profiling. Based on the review the paper proposes a three-dimensional model for archetyping residential\\ud energy consumers in the UK by considering property energy efficiency levels, the greenness of household behaviour of using energy, and the duration of property daytime occupancy. With the proposed model, eight archetypes of...

  20. A fire risk assessment model for residential high-rises with a single stairwell

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, N. D.; Steffensen, F.B.; Valkvist, M.B.

    2018-01-01

    As few or none prescriptive guidelines for fire risk assessment of residential high-rise buildings exist, it has been unclear which fire safety design features constitute an acceptable (adequate) safety level. In order to fill this gap a simplified risk-based decision-support tool, the Fire Risk...... Model (FRM), was developed. The FRM evaluates both the risk level to the occupants and the property risk level as a function of the building characteristics, height and fire safety features for single stairwell residential high-rise buildings. The acceptability of a high-rise design is then defined......, and the associated performance of the FRM evaluated. It was found that compartmentation and the door configurations in the egress path play an important role, along with sprinklers, in order for the design to successfully keep the stairwell free from smoke. Specifically, modern curtain wall facades were found...

  1. Dynamic modeling of potentially conflicting energy reduction strategies for residential structures in semi-arid climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, Nathan; Li, Ke; Schramski, John R; Crittenden, John

    2012-04-30

    Globally, residential energy consumption continues to rise due to a variety of trends such as increasing access to modern appliances, overall population growth, and the overall increase of electricity distribution. Currently, residential energy consumption accounts for approximately one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption. This research analyzes the effectiveness of a range of energy-saving measures for residential houses in semi-arid climates. These energy-saving measures include: structural insulated panels (SIP) for exterior wall construction, daylight control, increased window area, efficient window glass suitable for the local weather, and several combinations of these. Our model determined that energy consumption is reduced by up to 6.1% when multiple energy savings technologies are combined. In addition, pre-construction technologies (structural insulated panels (SIPs), daylight control, and increased window area) provide roughly 4 times the energy savings when compared to post-construction technologies (window blinds and efficient window glass). The model also illuminated the importance variations in local climate and building configuration; highlighting the site-specific nature of this type of energy consumption quantification for policy and building code considerations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. A nonlinear approach to modelling the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabreyohannes, Emmanuel

    2010-01-01

    In this paper an attempt is made to model, analyze and forecast the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model and the smooth transition regression (STR) model. For comparison purposes, the application was also extended to standard linear models. During the empirical presentation of both models, significant nonlinear effects were found and linearity was rejected. The SETAR model was found out to be relatively better than the linear autoregressive model in out-of-sample point and interval (density) forecasts. Results from our STR model showed that the residual variance of the fitted STR model was only about 65.7% of that of the linear ARX model. Thus, we can conclude that the inclusion of the nonlinear part, which basically accounts for the arrival of extreme price events, leads to improvements in the explanatory abilities of the model for electricity consumption in Ethiopia. (author)

  3. A nonlinear approach to modelling the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gabreyohannes, Emmanuel [Ethiopian Civil Service College, P.O.Box 5648, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)

    2010-05-15

    In this paper an attempt is made to model, analyze and forecast the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model and the smooth transition regression (STR) model. For comparison purposes, the application was also extended to standard linear models. During the empirical presentation of both models, significant nonlinear effects were found and linearity was rejected. The SETAR model was found out to be relatively better than the linear autoregressive model in out-of-sample point and interval (density) forecasts. Results from our STR model showed that the residual variance of the fitted STR model was only about 65.7% of that of the linear ARX model. Thus, we can conclude that the inclusion of the nonlinear part, which basically accounts for the arrival of extreme price events, leads to improvements in the explanatory abilities of the model for electricity consumption in Ethiopia. (author)

  4. Modeling the Temperature Effect of Orientations in Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabahat Arif

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Indoor thermal comfort in a building has been an important issue for the environmental sustainability. It is an accepted fact that their designs and planning consume a lot of energy in the modern architecture of 20th and 21st centuries. An appropriate orientation of a building can provide thermally comfortable indoor temperatures which otherwise can consume extra energy to condition these spaces through all the seasons. This experimental study investigates the potential effect of this solar passive design strategy on indoor temperatures and a simple model is presented for predicting indoor temperatures based upon the ambient temperatures.

  5. Integrating macro and micro scale approaches in the agent-based modeling of residential dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeedi, Sara

    2018-06-01

    With the advancement of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) methods as well as data collection technologies, urban dynamics modeling substantially improved over the last several decades. The complex urban dynamics processes are most effectively modeled not at the macro-scale, but following a bottom-up approach, by simulating the decisions of individual entities, or residents. Agent-based modeling (ABM) provides the key to a dynamic M&S framework that is able to integrate socioeconomic with environmental models, and to operate at both micro and macro geographical scales. In this study, a multi-agent system is proposed to simulate residential dynamics by considering spatiotemporal land use changes. In the proposed ABM, macro-scale land use change prediction is modeled by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and deployed as the agent environment and micro-scale residential dynamics behaviors autonomously implemented by household agents. These two levels of simulation interacted and jointly promoted urbanization process in an urban area of Tehran city in Iran. The model simulates the behavior of individual households in finding ideal locations to dwell. The household agents are divided into three main groups based on their income rank and they are further classified into different categories based on a number of attributes. These attributes determine the households' preferences for finding new dwellings and change with time. The ABM environment is represented by a land-use map in which the properties of the land parcels change dynamically over the simulation time. The outputs of this model are a set of maps showing the pattern of different groups of households in the city. These patterns can be used by city planners to find optimum locations for building new residential units or adding new services to the city. The simulation results show that combining macro- and micro-level simulation can give full play to the potential of the ABM to understand the driving

  6. Residential segregation and cultural dissemination: An Axelrod-Schelling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gracia-Lázaro, C.; Lafuerza, L. F.; Floría, L. M.; Moreno, Y.

    2009-10-01

    In the Axelrod’s model of cultural dissemination, we consider the mobility of cultural agents through the introduction of a density of empty sites and the possibility that agents in a dissimilar neighborhood can move to them if their mean cultural similarity with the neighborhood is below some threshold. While for low values of the density of empty sites, the mobility enhances the convergence to a global culture, for high enough values of it, the dynamics can lead to the coexistence of disconnected domains of different cultures. In this regime, the increase in initial cultural diversity paradoxically increases the convergence to a dominant culture. Further increase in diversity leads to the fragmentation of the dominant culture into domains, forever changing in shape and number, as an effect of the never ending eroding activity of cultural minorities.

  7. A three-dimensional model of residential energy consumer archetypes for local energy policy design in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tao; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Aickelin, Uwe

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews major studies in three traditional lines of research in residential energy consumption in the UK, i.e., economic/infrastructure, behaviour, and load profiling. Based on the review the paper proposes a three-dimensional model for archetyping residential energy consumers in the UK by considering property energy efficiency levels, the greenness of household behaviour of using energy, and the duration of property daytime occupancy. With the proposed model, eight archetypes of residential energy consumers in the UK have been identified. They are: pioneer greens, follower greens, concerned greens, home stayers, unconscientious wasters, regular wasters, daytime wasters, and disengaged wasters. Using a case study, these archetypes of residential energy consumers demonstrate the robustness of the 3-D model in aiding local energy policy/intervention design in the UK. - Highlights: ► This paper reviews the three traditional lines of research in residential energy consumption in the UK. ► Based on the literature review, the paper proposes a 3-D conceptual model for archetyping UK residential energy consumers. ► The 3-D archetype model can aid local energy policy/intervention design in the UK.

  8. Modeling of Monthly Residential and Commercial Electricity Consumption Using Nonlinear Seasonal Models—The Case of Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai-Ming To

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modeling and forecasting monthly electricity consumption are the keys to optimizing energy management and planning. This paper examines the seasonal characteristics of electricity consumption in Hong Kong—a subtropical city with 7 million people. Using the data from January 1970 to December 2014, two novel nonlinear seasonal models for electricity consumption in the residential and commercial sectors were obtained. The models show that the city’s monthly residential and commercial electricity consumption patterns have different seasonal variations. Specifically, monthly residential electricity consumption (mainly for appliances and cooling in summer has a quadratic relationship with monthly mean air temperature, while monthly commercial electricity consumption has a linear relationship with monthly mean air temperature. The nonlinear seasonal models were used to predict residential and commercial electricity consumption for the period January 2015–December 2016. The correlations between the predicted and actual values were 0.976 for residential electricity consumption and 0.962 for commercial electricity consumption, respectively. The root mean square percentage errors for the predicted monthly residential and commercial electricity consumption were 7.0% and 6.5%, respectively. The new nonlinear seasonal models can be applied to other subtropical urban areas, and recommendations on the reduction of commercial electricity consumption are given.

  9. Green infrastructure retrofits on residential parcels: Ecohydrologic modeling for stormwater design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, B.; Band, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    To meet water quality goals stormwater utilities and not-for-profit watershed organizations in the U.S. are working with citizens to design and implement green infrastructure on residential land. Green infrastructure, as an alternative and complement to traditional (grey) stormwater infrastructure, has the potential to contribute to multiple ecosystem benefits including stormwater volume reduction, carbon sequestration, urban heat island mitigation, and to provide amenities to residents. However, in small (1-10-km2) medium-density urban watersheds with heterogeneous land cover it is unclear whether stormwater retrofits on residential parcels significantly contributes to reduce stormwater volume at the watershed scale. In this paper, we seek to improve understanding of how small-scale redistribution of water at the parcel scale as part of green infrastructure implementation affects urban water budgets and stormwater volume across spatial scales. As study sites we use two medium-density headwater watersheds in Baltimore, MD and Durham, NC. We develop ecohydrology modeling experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of redirecting residential rooftop runoff to un-altered pervious surfaces and to engineered rain gardens to reduce stormwater runoff. As baselines for these experiments, we performed field surveys of residential rooftop hydrologic connectivity to adjacent impervious surfaces, and found low rates of connectivity. Through simulations of pervasive adoption of downspout disconnection to un-altered pervious areas or to rain garden stormwater control measures (SCM) in these catchments, we find that most parcel-scale changes in stormwater fate are attenuated at larger spatial scales and that neither SCM alone is likely to provide significant changes in streamflow at the watershed scale.

  10. Keys to the House: Unlocking Residential Savings With Program Models for Home Energy Upgrades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grevatt, Jim [Energy Futures Group (United States); Hoffman, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hoffmeyer, Dale [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2017-07-05

    After more than 40 years of effort, energy efficiency program administrators and associated contractors still find it challenging to penetrate the home retrofit market, especially at levels commensurate with state and federal goals for energy savings and emissions reductions. Residential retrofit programs further have not coalesced around a reliably successful model. They still vary in design, implementation and performance, and they remain among the more difficult and costly options for acquiring savings in the residential sector. If programs are to contribute fully to meeting resource and policy objectives, administrators need to understand what program elements are key to acquiring residential savings as cost effectively as possible. To that end, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive review and analysis of home energy upgrade programs with proven track records, focusing on those with robustly verified savings and constituting good examples for replication. The study team reviewed evaluations for the period 2010 to 2014 for 134 programs that are funded by customers of investor-owned utilities. All are programs that promote multi-measure retrofits or major system upgrades. We paid particular attention to useful design and implementation features, costs, and savings for nearly 30 programs with rigorous evaluations of performance. This meta-analysis describes program models and implementation strategies for (1) direct install retrofits; (2) heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) replacement and early retirement; and (3) comprehensive, whole-home retrofits. We analyze costs and impacts of these program models, in terms of both energy savings and emissions avoided. These program models can be useful guides as states consider expanding their strategies for acquiring energy savings as a resource and for emissions reductions. We also discuss the challenges of using evaluations to create program models that can be confidently applied in

  11. Modelling long term energy consumption of French residential sector - improving behavioral realism and simulating ambitious scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allibe, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavioral energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its

  12. Construction and the Analysis of the Models of Mass Appraisal of Residential Real Estate in Riga and Daugavpils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Ruzha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mass appraisal of real estate is one of the most classical economic tasks in accomplishing of which econometric modeling is successfully applied. The following article dwells upon three models used for estimating the commercial value of residential real estate. For the purposes of the research the market of residential real estate of two cities (i.e. capital of Latvia - Riga and the regional centre – Daugavpils has been studied. The statistical analysis of the sales data for 2010-2011 has allowed distinguishing pricing factors of the residential real estate, both at the regional level, and at the level of a building and object of real estate. Modeling was conducted with the use of correlation and regression and cluster analyses. The additive and multiplicative models based on the regression equation and the model of the cluster analysis based on the method of parallel sectioning have been presented

  13. Main challenges of residential areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Luca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The present article is a position paper aiming to initiate a professional debate related to the aspects related to the urban dysfunctions leading to the wear of the residential areas. The paper proposes a definition of the wear process, identify the main causes leading to its occurrence and propose a number of solutions to neutralise the dysfunctions. The three wearing phases of residential areas components are emphasized, exploring their lifecycle. In order to perform the study of urban wear, the status of the residential areas components can be established and monitored, and also the variables of the function that can mathematically model the specific wear process may be considered. The paper is considered a first step for the model adjustment, to be tested and validated in the following steps. Based on the mathematical method and model, there can be created, in a potential future research, the possibility of determining the precarity degree for residential areas/neighbourhoods and cities, by minimising the subjective component of the analyses preceding the decision for renovation or regeneration.

  14. Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Gulikova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust

  15. Model development for spatial variation of PM2.5 emissions from residential wood burning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yong Q, Tian; Peng Gong; Qian Yu; Radke, John D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary research result of spatially quantifying and allocating the potential activity of residential wood burning (RWB) by using demographic, hypsographic, climatic and topographic information as independent variables. We also introduce the method for calculating PM 2.5 emission from residential wood combustion with the potential activity as primary variable. A linear regression model was generated to describe spatial and temporal distribution of the potential activity of wood burning as primary heating source. In order to improve the estimation, the classifications of urban, suburban and rural were redefined to meet the specifications of this application. Also, a unique way of defining forest accessibility is found useful in estimating the activity potential of RWB. The results suggest that the potential activity of wood burning is mostly determined by elevation of a location, forest accessibility, urban/non-urban position, climatic conditions and several demographic variables. The analysis results were validated using survey data collected through face-to-face and telephone interviews over the study area in central California. The linear regression model can explain approximately 86% of the variation of surveyed wood burning activity potential. The total PM 2.5 emitted from woodstoves and fireplaces is analyzed for the study region at county level. (Author)

  16. Preferred Residential kitchen cabinets Cover Models: The Case of the province of Artvin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdi Atılgan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, residential kitchen cabinets today and should be preferred to determine the reasons for the cover models were investigated. The study of urban settlement area of ​​the province of Artvin, the different socio-economic (lower / middle / upper SES levels, cuisine sampling method was chosen families. Data were obtained from the poll and systematic observation. Determination of the outstanding elements of the study and interpretation of the choice of species to cover some of the statistical techniques used. According to the results, residential kitchen cabinets, the most multi-chipboard / mdflam cover (25%, aluminum framed door is at least (1.09% were used. Reasons to prefer the technological developments and the launch of new products, while effective proposals were received by property owners, manufacturers, cover models, significantly affects the reasons for cost differences should be preferred. Another important result, is a form of property owners to ensure the kitchen cabinets. Accordingly, the vast majority of users provided by way of kitchen furniture, in order, while the other places and provided in the reinforcing elements are usually prepared production are known.

  17. Residential-energy-demand modeling and the NIECS data base: an evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowing, T.G.; Dubin, J.A.; McFadden, D.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to evaluate the 1978-1979 National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) data base in terms of its usefulness for estimating residential energy demand models based on household appliance choice and utilization decisions. The NIECS contains detailed energy usage information at the household level for 4081 households during the April 1978 to March 1979 period. Among the data included are information on the structural and thermal characteristics of the housing unit, demographic characteristics of the household, fuel usage, appliance characteristics, and actual energy consumption. The survey covers the four primary residential fuels-electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas - and includes detailed information on recent household conservation and retrofit activities. Section II contains brief descriptions of the major components of the NIECS data set. Discussions are included on the sample frame and the imputation procedures used in NIECS. There are also two extensive tables, giving detailed statistical and other information on most of the non-vehicle NIECS variables. Section III contains an assessment of the NIECS data, focusing on four areas: measurement error, sample design, imputation problems, and additional data needed to estimate appliance choice/use models. Section IV summarizes and concludes the report.

  18. A Non-Modeling Exploration of Residential Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Adoption and Non-Adoption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moezzi, Mithra [Portland State Univ., Portland, OR (United States); Ingle, Aaron [Portland State Univ., Portland, OR (United States); Lutzenhiser, Loren [Portland State Univ., Portland, OR (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Although U.S. deployment of residential rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has accelerated in recent years, PV is still installed on less than 1 percent of single-family homes. Most research on household PV adoption focuses on scaling initial markets and modeling predicted growth rather than considering more broadly why adoption occurs. Among the studies that have investigated the characteristics of PV adoption, most collected data from adopters, sometimes with additional non-adopter data, and rarely from people who considered but did not adopt PV. Yet the vast majority of Americans are non-adopters, and they are a diverse group - understanding their ways of evaluating PV adoption is important. Similarly, PV is a unique consumer product, which makes it difficult to apply findings from studies of other technologies to PV. In addition, little research addresses the experience of households after they install PV. This report helps fill some of these gaps in the existing literature. The results inform a more detailed understanding of residential PV adoption, while helping ensure that adoption is sufficiently beneficial to adopters and even non-adopters.

  19. Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Reid; Golab, Lukasz; Rosenberg, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    Analyzing the impact of pricing policies such as time-of-use (TOU) is challenging in the presence of confounding factors such as weather. Motivated by a lack of consensus and model selection details in prior work, we present a methodology for modelling the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. The best model is selected according to explanatory power, out-of-sample prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and interpretability. We then evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in southwestern Ontario, Canada. We use a smart meter dataset of over 20,000 households which is particularly suited to our analysis: it contains data from the summer before and after the implementation of TOU pricing in November 2011, and all customers transitioned from tiered rates to TOU rates at the same time. We find that during the summer rate season, TOU pricing results in electricity conservation across all price periods. The average demand change during on-peak and mid-peak periods is −2.6% and −2.4% respectively. Changes during off-peak periods are not statistically significant. These TOU pricing effects are less pronounced compared to previous studies, underscoring the need for clear, reproducible impact analyses which include full details about the model selection process. - Highlights: • We study models for the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. • We evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in Ontario, Canada. • We find the effect of TOU pricing to be less pronounced compared to previous studies.

  20. The care of Filipino juvenile offenders in residential facilities evaluated using the risk-need-responsivity model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruit, A.; Wissink, I.B.; Stams, G.J.J.M.

    According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and

  1. Real-time Modelling, Diagnostics and Optimised MPPT for Residential PV Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sera, Dezso

    responsible for yield-reduction of residential photovoltaic systems. Combining the model calculations with measurements, a method to detect changes in the panels’ series resistance based on the slope of the I − V curve in the vicinity of open-circuit conditions and scaled to Standard Test Conditions (STC......The work documented in the thesis has been focused into two main sections. The first part is centred around Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) techniques for photovoltaic arrays, optimised for fast-changing environmental conditions, and is described in Chapter 2. The second part is dedicated...... to diagnostic functions as an additional tool to maximise the energy yield of photovoltaic arrays (Chapter 4). Furthermore, mathematical models of PV panels and arrays have been developed and built (detailed in Chapter 3) for testing MPPT algorithms, and for diagnostic purposes. In Chapter 2 an overview...

  2. DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Fitriani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

  3. Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH) conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH) may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. Methods A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US) using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. Results The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. Conclusion This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity indoors. PMID:20815876

  4. Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myatt Theodore A

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. Methods A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. Results The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. Conclusion This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity

  5. Modeling of Residential Water Demand Using Random Effect Model,Case Study: Arak City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Hossein Sajadifar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study tries to apply the “Partial Adjustment Model” and “Random Effect Model” techniques to the Stone-Greay’s linear expenditure system, in order to estimate the "Residential Seasonal Demand" for water in Arak city. Per capita water consumption of family residences is regressed on marginal price, per capita income, price of other goods, average temperature and average rainfall. Panel data approaches based on a sample of 152 observations from Arak city referred to 1993-2003. From the estimation of the Elasticity-price of the residential water demand, we want to know how a policy of responsive pricing can lead to more efficient household water consumption inArakcity. Results also indicated that summer price elasticity was twice the winter and price and income elasticity was less than 1 in all cases.

  6. Models for predicting turnover of residential aged care nurses: a structural equation modelling analysis of secondary data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Fengsong; Newcombe, Peter; Tilse, Cheryl; Wilson, Jill; Tuckett, Anthony

    2014-09-01

    Nurse turnover in the residential aged care industry is a pressing issue. Researchers have shown ongoing interest in exploring how the factors that are amendable to change in aged care policy, regulation and funding and in organizational procedures (e.g. job demands, coping resources and psychological health of nurses) impact on turnover. However, the findings are mixed. This study tested two theoretical models of turnover to examine the structural relationships among job demands, coping resources, psychological health and turnover of residential aged care nurses. Although many previous studies operationalized turnover as intention to leave, the present study investigated actual turnover by following up with the same individuals over time, and thus provided more accurate predictive models of turnover behaviour. The sample, 239 Australian residential aged care nurses, came from the Nurses and Midwives e-cohort Study. Job demands, coping resources, and psychological health were measured using standardized instruments. Structural equation modelling was used to test the measurement and structural models. Controlling for a number of workforce and individual characteristics, coping resources (measured by job control, supervisor support, and co-worker support) were negatively and directly associated with turnover. Additionally, the findings supported the Job Demand-Control-Support model in that higher coping resources and lower job demands (indicated by psychological demands, physical demands, and effort) were related to better psychological health (measured by vitality, social functioning, role emotional, and mental health), and higher job demands were related to lower coping resources. Findings suggest that aged care policy makers and service providers might consider increasing coping resources available to nurses and minimizing job demands of care work to reduce turnover and improve nurses' psychological health. Moreover, findings from this Australian study may provide

  7. The effectiveness of an integrated collaborative care model vs. a shifted outpatient collaborative care model on community functioning, residential stability, and health service use among homeless adults with mental illness: a quasi-experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stergiopoulos, Vicky; Schuler, Andrée; Nisenbaum, Rosane; deRuiter, Wayne; Guimond, Tim; Wasylenki, Donald; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Hwang, Stephen W; Rouleau, Katherine; Dewa, Carolyn

    2015-08-28

    Although a growing number of collaborative mental health care models have been developed, targeting specific populations, few studies have utilized such interventions among homeless populations. This quasi-experimental study compared the outcomes of two shelter-based collaborative mental health care models for men experiencing homelessness and mental illness: (1) an integrated multidisciplinary collaborative care (IMCC) model and (2) a less resource intensive shifted outpatient collaborative care (SOCC) model. In total 142 participants, 70 from IMCC and 72 from SOCC were enrolled and followed for 12 months. Outcome measures included community functioning, residential stability, and health service use. Multivariate regression models were used to compare study arms with respect to change in community functioning, residential stability, and health service use outcomes over time and to identify baseline demographic, clinical or homelessness variables associated with observed changes in these domains. We observed improvements in both programs over time on measures of community functioning, residential stability, hospitalizations, emergency department visits and community physician visits, with no significant differences between groups over time on these outcome measures. Our findings suggest that shelter-based collaborative mental health care models may be effective for individuals experiencing homelessness and mental illness. Future studies should seek to confirm these findings and examine the cost effectiveness of collaborative care models for this population.

  8. Energy-Independent Architectural Models for Residential Complex Plans through Solar Energy in Daegu Metropolitan City, South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Yul Kim

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study suggests energy-independent architectural models for residential complexes through the production of solar-energy-based renewable energy. Daegu Metropolitan City, South Korea, was selected as the target area for the residential complex. An optimal location in the area was selected to maximize the production of solar-energy-based renewable energy. Then, several architectural design models were developed. Next, after analyzing the energy-use patterns of each design model, economic analyses were conducted considering the profits generated from renewable-energy use. In this way, the optimum residential building model was identified. For this site, optimal solar power generation efficiency was obtained when solar panels were installed at 25° angles. Thus, the sloped roof angles were set to 25°, and the average height of the internal space of the highest floor was set to 1.8 m. Based on this model, analyses were performed regarding energy self-sufficiency improvement and economics. It was verified that connecting solar power generation capacity from a zero-energy perspective considering the consumer’s amount of power consumption was more effective than connecting maximum solar power generation capacity according to building structure. Moreover, it was verified that selecting a subsidizable solar power generation capacity according to the residential solar power facility connection can maximize operational benefits.

  9. Functional forms and price elasticities in a discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez Lavín, F. A.; Hernandez, J. I.; Ponce, R. D.; Orrego, S. A.

    2017-07-01

    During recent decades, water demand estimation has gained considerable attention from scholars. From an econometric perspective, the most used functional forms include log-log and linear specifications. Despite the advances in this field and the relevance for policymaking, little attention has been paid to the functional forms used in these estimations, and most authors have not provided justifications for their selection of functional forms. A discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand is estimated using six functional forms (log-log, full-log, log-quadratic, semilog, linear, and Stone-Geary), and the expected consumption and price elasticity are evaluated. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the relevance of functional form selection for both the expected consumption and price elasticity.

  10. Do homes that are more energy efficient consume less energy?: A structural equation model of the English residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Energy consumption from the residential sector is a complex socio-technical problem that can be explained using a combination of physical, demographic and behavioural characteristics of a dwelling and its occupants. A structural equation model (SEM) is introduced to calculate the magnitude and significance of explanatory variables on residential energy consumption. The benefit of this approach is that it explains the complex relationships that exist between manifest variables and their overall effect though direct, indirect and total effects. Using the English House Condition Survey (EHCS) consisting of 2531 unique cases, the main drivers behind residential energy consumption are found to be the number of household occupants, floor area, household income, dwelling efficiency (SAP), household heating patterns and living room temperature. In the multivariate case, SAP explains very little of the variance of residential energy consumption. However, this procedure fails to account for simultaneity bias between energy consumption and SAP. Using SEM its shown that dwelling energy efficiency (SAP), has reciprocal causality with dwelling energy consumption and the magnitude of these two effects are calculable. When non-recursivity between SAP and energy consumption is allowed for, SAP is shown to have a negative effect on energy consumption but conversely, homes with a propensity to consume more energy also have higher SAP rates. -- Highlights: → A Structural Equation Model (SEM) is developed to explain residential energy demand. → Key variables that drive residential energy consumption are empirically identified. → Direct, indirect and total effects are determined. → It is found that occupancy and household income are strongly mediated by floor area. → A non-recursive relationship is found to exist between energy consumption and SAP.

  11. Modeling and parametric study of a 1 kWe HT-PEMFC-based residential micro-CHP system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arsalis, Alexandros; Nielsen, Mads Pagh; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2011-01-01

    A detailed thermodynamic, kinetic and geometric model of a micro-CHP (Combined-Heatand-Power) residential system based on High Temperature-Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (HT-PEMFC) technology is developed, implemented and validated. HT-PEMFC technology is investigated as a possible candidate...

  12. A statistical model of future human actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, G.

    1992-02-01

    A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)

  13. Ground Motion Models for Future Linear Colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seryi, Andrei

    2000-01-01

    Optimization of the parameters of a future linear collider requires comprehensive models of ground motion. Both general models of ground motion and specific models of the particular site and local conditions are essential. Existing models are not completely adequate, either because they are too general, or because they omit important peculiarities of ground motion. The model considered in this paper is based on recent ground motion measurements performed at SLAC and at other accelerator laboratories, as well as on historical data. The issues to be studied for the models to become more predictive are also discussed

  14. Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    and Ben Polly, Joseph Robertson [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Polly, Ben [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Collis, Jon [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define "explicit" input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAE 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.

  15. Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, J.; Polly, B.; Collis, J.

    2013-09-01

    This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define 'explicit' input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAE 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.

  16. Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2006-01-01

    Forecasts of oil price volatility are important inputs into macroeconometric models, financial market risk assessment calculations like value at risk, and option pricing formulas for futures contracts. This paper uses several different univariate and multivariate statistical models to estimate forecasts of daily volatility in petroleum futures price returns. The out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated using forecast accuracy tests and market timing tests. The TGARCH model fits well for heating oil and natural gas volatility and the GARCH model fits well for crude oil and unleaded gasoline volatility. Simple moving average models seem to fit well in some cases provided the correct order is chosen. Despite the increased complexity, models like state space, vector autoregression and bivariate GARCH do not perform as well as the single equation GARCH model. Most models out perform a random walk and there is evidence of market timing. Parametric and non-parametric value at risk measures are calculated and compared. Non-parametric models outperform the parametric models in terms of number of exceedences in backtests. These results are useful for anyone needing forecasts of petroleum futures volatility. (author)

  17. Future of business models in manufacturing

    OpenAIRE

    Seidel, Johannes; Barquet, Ana-Paula; Seliger, Günther; Kohl, Holger

    2017-01-01

    In order to achieve systematic change in pursuit of sustainable manufacturing, both a strategic long-term perspective employing methods from future studies and a concrete implementation of the knowledge gained in sustainable business models are necessary. In this chapter, the concepts and exemplary methods for sustainable business model innovation are introduced with a special focus on sustainable manufacturing. Circular Economy-based business models and Product Service Systems are explained ...

  18. Modeling hourly consumption of electricity and district heat in non-residential buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kipping, A.; Trømborg, E.

    2017-01-01

    Models for hourly consumption of heat and electricity in different consumer groups on a regional level can yield important data for energy system planning and management. In this study hourly meter data, combined with cross-sectional data derived from the Norwegian energy label database, is used to model hourly consumption of both district heat and electrical energy in office buildings and schools which either use direct electric heating (DEH) or non-electric hydronic heating (OHH). The results of the study show that modeled hourly total energy consumption in buildings with DEH and in buildings with OHH (supplied by district heat) exhibits differences, e.g. due to differences in heat distribution and control systems. In a normal year, in office buildings with OHH the main part of total modeled energy consumption is used for electric appliances, while in schools with OHH the main part is used for heating. In buildings with OHH the share of modeled annual heating energy is higher than in buildings with DEH. Although based on small samples our regression results indicate that the presented method can be used for modeling hourly energy consumption in non-residential buildings, but also that larger samples and additional cross-sectional information could yield improved models and more reliable results. - Highlights: • Schools with district heating (DH) tend to use less night-setback. • DH in office buildings tends to start earlier than direct electric heating (DEH). • In schools with DH the main part of annual energy consumption is used for heating. • In office buildings with DH the main part is used for electric appliances. • Buildings with DH use a larger share of energy for heating than buildings with DEH.

  19. A DFuzzy-DAHP Decision-Making Model for Evaluating Energy-Saving Design Strategies for Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Lung Chen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is a high-pollution and high-energy-consumption industry. Energy-saving designs for residential buildings not only reduce the energy consumed during construction, but also reduce long-term energy consumption in completed residential buildings. Because building design affects investment costs, designs are often influenced by investors’ decisions. A set of appropriate decision-support tools for residential buildings are required to examine how building design influences corporations externally and internally. From the perspective of energy savings and environmental protection, we combined three methods to develop a unique model for evaluating the energy-saving design of residential buildings. Among these methods, the Delphi group decision-making method provides a co-design feature, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP includes multi-criteria decision-making techniques, and fuzzy logic theory can simplify complex internal and external factors into easy-to-understand numbers or ratios that facilitate decisions. The results of this study show that incorporating solar building materials, double-skin facades, and green roof designs can effectively provide high energy-saving building designs.

  20. Calculation and decomposition of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China based on the input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Qin; Peng Xizhe; Wu Kaiya

    2012-01-01

    Based on the input–output model and the comparable price input–output tables, the current paper investigates the indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China in 1992–2005, and examines the impacts on the emissions using the structural decomposition method. The results demonstrate that the rise of the residential consumption level played a dominant role in the growth of residential indirect emissions. The persistent decline of the carbon emission intensity of industrial sectors presented a significant negative effect on the emissions. The change in the intermediate demand of industrial sectors resulted in an overall positive effect, except in the initial years. The increase in population prompted the indirect emissions to a certain extent; however, population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions. The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect, demonstrating the importance for China to control and slow down the increase in the emissions while in the process of optimizing the residential consumption structure. The results imply that the means for restructuring the economy and improving efficiency, rather than for lowering the consumption scale, should be adopted by China to achieve the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction. - Highlights: ► We build the input–output model of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption. ► We calculate the indirect emissions using the comparable price input–output tables. ► We examine the impacts on the indirect emissions using the structural decomposition method. ► The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect on the emissions. ► China's population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions.

  1. A Community Landscape Model of Pro-Environmental Behavior: The Effects of Landscape and Community Interaction on Residential Energy Behaviors in Two Pennsylvania Towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainzer, Stephen P.

    We are using more energy every year. Between 2001 and 2011, Pennsylvania residential electricity sales increased by two and a half times the number of new customers, accounting for almost one third of the state's total electricity consumption. Our ability to meet demand by acquiring new energy sources faces several challenges. Confusion surrounds the physical and economic accessibility of remaining fossil fuel sources. Immense land use requirements and subsequent environmental impacts challenge a total shift to renewable energy sources. The laws of thermodynamics limit the potential for new technology to efficiently convert raw energy to consumable sources. As a result, any rational strategy to meet future energy demands must involve conservation. Conservation is a pro-environmental behavior, an act intended to benefit the environment surrounding a person. I posit that a transdisciplinary model, the community landscape model of the pro-environmental behavior, unifies the conceptually analogous - yet disparate - fields of landscape, community, and behavior towards explaining residential energy conservation actions. Specifically, the study attempted to describe links between the physical environment, social environment, and conservation behaviors through a mixed-method framework. Two Pennsylvania townships - Spring and East Buffalo townships - were selected from an analysis of housing, electricity consumption, and land cover trends. Key informants from both townships informed the design of a survey instrument that captured the utility consumption, residential conservation actions, energy and environmental values, types and levels of community engagement, perceived barriers, and socio-demographic information from 107 randomly selected households. A mixed-method analysis produced evidence that place-based values and intention to participate in the community were significantly linked to lower utility consumption in households. People who cared deeply about their town

  2. Virtual Universities: Current Models and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

    2001-01-01

    Describes current models of distance education (single-mode distance teaching universities, dual- and mixed-mode universities, extension services, consortia-type ventures, and new technology-based universities), including their merits and problems. Discusses future trends in potential student constituencies, faculty roles, forms of knowledge…

  3. A neuro-fuzzy model for prediction of the indoor temperature in typical Australian residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alasha' ary, Haitham; Moghtaderi, Behdad; Page, Adrian; Sugo, Heber [Priority Research Centre for Energy, Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, the University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Newcastle, NSW 2308 (Australia)

    2009-07-15

    The Masonry Research Group at The University of Newcastle, Australia has embarked on an extensive research program to study the thermal performance of common walling systems in Australian residential buildings by studying the thermal behaviour of four representative purpose-built thermal test buildings (referred to as 'test modules' or simply 'modules' hereafter). The modules are situated on the university campus and are constructed from brick veneer (BV), cavity brick (CB) and lightweight (LW) constructions. The program of study has both experimental and analytical strands, including the use of a neuro-fuzzy approach to predict the thermal behaviour. The latter approach employs an experimental adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which is used in this study to predict the room (indoor) temperatures of the modules under a range of climatic conditions pertinent to Newcastle (NSW, Australia). The study shows that this neuro-fuzzy model is capable of accurately predicting the room temperature of such buildings; thus providing a potential computationally efficient and inexpensive predictive tool for the more effective thermal design of housing. (author)

  4. The SmartH2O project: a platform supporting residential water management through smart meters and data intensive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cominola, A.; Nanda, R.; Giuliani, M.; Piga, D.; Castelletti, A.; Rizzoli, A. E.; Maziotis, A.; Garrone, P.; Harou, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    Designing effective urban water demand management strategies at the household level does require a deep understanding of the determinants of users' consumption. Low resolution data on residential water consumption, as traditionally metered, can only be used to model consumers' behavior at an aggregate level whereas end uses breakdown and the motivations and individual attitudes of consumers are hidden. The recent advent of smart meters allows gathering high frequency consumption data that can be used both to provide instantaneous information to water utilities on the state of the network and continuously inform the users on their consumption and savings. Smart metered data also allow for the characterization of water end uses: this information, coupled with users' psychographic variables, constitutes the knowledge basis for developing individual and multi users models, through which water utilities can test the impact of different management strategies. SmartH2O is an EU funded project which aims at creating an ICT platform able to (i) capture and store quasi real time, high resolution residential water usage data measured with smart meters, (ii) infer the main determinants of residential water end uses and build customers' behavioral models and (iii) predict how the customer behavior can be influenced by various water demand management strategies, spanning from dynamic water pricing schemes to social awareness campaigns. The project exploits a social computing approach for raising users' awareness about water consumption and pursuing water savings in the residential sector. In this work, we first present the SmartH2O platform and data collection, storage and analysis components. We then introduce some preliminary models and results on total water consumption disaggregation into end uses and single user behaviors using innovative fully automated algorithms and overcoming the need of invasive metering campaigns at the fixture level.

  5. Modeling residential water and related energy, carbon footprint and costs in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escriva-Bou, Alvar; Lund, Jay R.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We model residential water use and related energy and GHG emissions in California. • Heterogeneity in use, spatial variability and water and energy rates are accounted. • Outdoor is more than 50% of water use but 80% of energy is used by faucet + shower. • Variability in water and energy prices affects willingness to adopt conservation. • Targeting high-use hoses and joint conservation policies are effective strategies. - Abstract: Starting from single-family household water end-use data, this study develops an end-use model for water-use and related energy and carbon footprint using probability distributions for parameters affecting water consumption in 10 local water utilities in California. Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop a large representative sample of households to describe variability in use, with water bills for each house for different utility rate structures. The water-related energy consumption for each household realization was obtained using an energy model based on the different water end-uses, assuming probability distributions for hot-water-use for each appliance and water heater characteristics. Spatial variability is incorporated to account for average air and household water inlet temperatures and price structures for each utility. Water-related energy costs are calculated using averaged energy price for each location. CO 2 emissions were derived from energy use using emission factors. Overall simulation runs assess the impact of several common conservation strategies on household water and energy use. Results show that single-family water-related CO 2 emissions are 2% of overall per capita emissions, and that managing water and energy jointly can significantly reduce state greenhouse gas emissions

  6. A Modelling Approach on Fine Particle Spatial Distribution for Street Canyons in Asian Residential Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Hong; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice; Uhrner, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Rapidly increasing urban pollution poses severe health risks.Especially fine particles pollution is considered to be closely related to respiratory and cardiovascular disease. In this work, ambient fine particles are studied in street canyons of a typical Asian residential community using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) dispersion modelling approach. The community is characterised by an artery road with a busy traffic flow of about 4000 light vehicles (mainly cars and motorcycles) per hour at rush hours, three streets with hundreds light vehicles per hour at rush hours and several small lanes with less traffic. The objective is to study the spatial distribution of the ambient fine particle concentrations within micro-environments, in order to assess fine particle exposure of the people living in the community. The GRAL modelling system is used to simulate and assess the emission and dispersion of the traffic-related fine particles within the community. Traffic emission factors and traffic situation is assigned using both field observation and local emissions inventory data. High resolution digital elevation data (DEM) and building height data are used to resolve the topographical features. Air quality monitoring and mobile monitoring within the community is used to validate the simulation results. By using this modelling approach, the dispersion of fine particles in street canyons is simulated; the impact of wind condition and street orientation are investigated; the contributions of car and motorcycle emissions are quantified respectively; the residents' exposure level of fine particles is assessed. The study is funded by "Taiwan Megacity Environmental Research (II)-chemistry and environmental impacts of boundary layer aerosols (Year 2-3) (103-2111-M-001-001-); Spatial variability and organic markers of aerosols (Year 3)(104-2111-M-001 -005 -)"

  7. Residential Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Kids For Teens For Parents & Teachers Resolving Family Conflicts The Holidays and Alzheimer's Glossary Virtual Library Online ... longer an option Costs Choosing a care setting Types of residential care A good long-term care ...

  8. An evaluation of the installation of solar photovoltaic in residential houses in Malaysia: Past, present, and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus; Ramirez-Iniguez, Roberto; Abu-Bakar, Siti Hawa; McMeekin, Scott G.; Stewart, Brian G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines solar energy development in Malaysia, particularly in relation to the installation of solar Photovoltaic (PV) in residential houses. It analyzes the past activities related to solar energy in Malaysia, in terms of research and developments (R and Ds), the implementations used as well as the national policies for the past 20 years which have pushed the installation of PV in the country. The Feed-In Tariff (FiT) scheme is discussed, showing comparative cost-benefit analysis between the PV installation in houses in the United Kingdom (UK) and Malaysia, and with other investment schemes available in Malaysia. To investigate the awareness of renewable energy policies and incentives, a preliminary survey of the public opinion in Malaysia has been carried out, and an evaluation of public willingness to invest in the FiT scheme by installing the PV on their houses is presented. The cost-benefit analysis shows that the proposed FiT programme is capable of generating good return on investment as compared to the one in the UK, but the return is lower than other investment tools. The survey suggests that most Malaysians are unaware of the government’s incentives and policies towards renewable energies, and are not willing to invest in the FiT scheme. - Highlights: ► Past activities related to solar energy is evaluated and FIT scheme is discussed. ► Financial analysis is presented; public perspective is evaluated. ► The FIT scheme generates higher return for PV installation in Malaysia than in the UK. ► The scheme, however, produces lower return than most investment schemes. ► Malaysians’ awareness levels are low and are not willing to invest in the FIT scheme.

  9. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of impact-absorbing flooring in Swedish residential care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryen, Linda; Svensson, Mikael

    2016-06-01

    Fall-related injuries among the elderly, specifically hip fractures, cause significant morbidity and mortality as well as imposing a substantial financial cost on the health care system. Impact-absorbing flooring has been advocated as an effective method for preventing hip fractures resulting from falls. This study identifies the cost-effectiveness of impact-absorbing flooring compared to standard flooring in residential care facilities for the elderly in a Swedish setting. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing impact-absorbing flooring to standard flooring using a Markov decision model. A societal perspective was adopted and incremental costs were compared to incremental gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Data on costs, probability transitions and health-related quality of life measures were retrieved from the published literature and from Swedish register data. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed through a Monte Carlo simulation. The base-case analysis indicates that the impact-absorbing flooring reduces costs and increases QALYs. When allowing for uncertainty we find that 60% of the simulations indicate that impact-absorbing flooring is cost-saving compared to standard flooring and an additional 20% that it has a cost per QALY below a commonly used threshold value : Using a modelling approach, we find that impact-absorbing flooring is a dominant strategy at the societal level considering that it can save resources and improve health in a vulnerable population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  10. Plume-exit modeling to determine cloud condensation nuclei activity of aerosols from residential biofuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Francisco; Bond, Tami C.; Riemer, Nicole

    2017-08-01

    Residential biofuel combustion is an important source of aerosols and gases in the atmosphere. The change in cloud characteristics due to biofuel burning aerosols is uncertain, in part, due to the uncertainty in the added number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from biofuel burning. We provide estimates of the CCN activity of biofuel burning aerosols by explicitly modeling plume dynamics (coagulation, condensation, chemical reactions, and dilution) in a young biofuel burning plume from emission until plume exit, defined here as the condition when the plume reaches ambient temperature and specific humidity through entrainment. We found that aerosol-scale dynamics affect CCN activity only during the first few seconds of evolution, after which the CCN efficiency reaches a constant value. Homogenizing factors in a plume are co-emission of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) or emission at small particle sizes; SVOC co-emission can be the main factor determining plume-exit CCN for hydrophobic or small particles. Coagulation limits emission of CCN to about 1016 per kilogram of fuel. Depending on emission factor, particle size, and composition, some of these particles may not activate at low supersaturation (ssat). Hygroscopic Aitken-mode particles can contribute to CCN through self-coagulation but have a small effect on the CCN activity of accumulation-mode particles, regardless of composition differences. Simple models (monodisperse coagulation and average hygroscopicity) can be used to estimate plume-exit CCN within about 20 % if particles are unimodal and have homogeneous composition, or when particles are emitted in the Aitken mode even if they are not homogeneous. On the other hand, if externally mixed particles are emitted in the accumulation mode without SVOCs, an average hygroscopicity overestimates emitted CCN by up to a factor of 2. This work has identified conditions under which particle populations become more homogeneous during plume processes. This

  11. Window opening behaviour: simulations of occupant behaviour in residential buildings using models based on a field survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valentina, Fabi; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Corgnati, Stefano Paolo

    2012-01-01

    Window opening behaviour has been shown to have a significant impact on airflow rates and hence energy consumption. Nevertheless, the inhabitant behaviour related to window opening in residential buildings is currently poorly investigated through both field surveys and building energy simulations....... In particular, reliable information regarding user behaviour in residential buildings is crucial for suitable prediction of building performance (energy consumption, indoor environmental quality, etc.). To face this issue, measurements of indoor climate and outdoor environmental parameters and window “opening...... and closing” actions were performed in 15 dwellings from January to August 2008 in Denmark. Probabilistic models of inhabitants’ window “opening and closing” behaviour were developed and implemented in the energy simulation software IDA ICE to improve window opening and closing strategies in simulations...

  12. User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Xin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baker, Kyri A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Christensen, Dane T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Isley, Steven C. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-21

    This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility and reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.

  13. Customer baseline load models for residential sector in a smart-grid environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sharifi

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, a new method is presented for the calculation of CBL for customers in residential sector in the context of a smart grid, considering the impact of weather changes. The results clearly show the high impact of changes in weather conditions on the calculation of CBL, and also show the extent of effect of buildings’ improved insulation on this parameter. It is also indicated that implementing DR programs can increase the willingness of customers in residential sector to improve the insulations of their buildings.

  14. Modeling and simulation of a residential micro-CHP system based on HT-PEMFC technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arsalis, Alexandros; Nielsen, Mads Pagh; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2009-01-01

    Combined-heat-and-power (CHP) technology is a well known and proved method to produce simultaneously power and heat at high efficiencies. This can be further improved by the introduction of a novel micro-CHP residential system based on High Temperature-Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (HT-PEMFC......). The HT-PEMFC (based on PBI-membrane technology) operates at temperatures near 200oC, and this can be an ideal match for cogeneration residential systems. The proposed system provides electric power, hot water, and space heating for a typical household (1-5 kWe, 5-10 kWth). The micro-CHP system...

  15. Residential on site solar heating systems: a project evaluation using the capital asset pricing model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, S.R.

    1978-12-01

    An energy source ready for immediate use on a commercial scale is solar energy in the form of On Site Solar Heating (OSSH) systems. These systems collect solar energy with rooftop panels, store excess energy in water storage tanks and can, in certain circumstances, provide 100% of the space heating and hot water required by the occupants of the residential or commercial structure on which the system is located. Such systems would take advantage of a free and inexhaustible energy source--sunlight. The principal drawback of such systems is the high initial capital cost. The solution would normally be a carefully worked out corporate financing plan. However, at the moment it is individual homeowners and not corporations who are attempting to finance these systems. As a result, the terms of finance are excessively stringent and constitute the main obstacle to the large scale market penetration of OSSH. This study analyzes the feasibility of OSSH as a private utility investment. Such systems would be installed and owned by private utilities and would displace other investment projects, principally electric generating plants. The return on OSSH is calculated on the basis of the cost to the consumer of the equivalent amount of electrical energy that is displaced by the OSSH system. The hurdle rate for investment in OSSH is calculated using the Sharpe--Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model. The results of this study indicate that OSSH is a low risk investment having an appropriate hurdle rate of 7.9%. At this rate, OSSH investment appears marginally acceptable in northern California and unambiguously acceptable in southern California. The results also suggest that utility investment in OSSH should lead to a higher degree of financial leverage for utility companies without a concurrent deterioration in the risk class of utility equity.

  16. Modeling residential lawn fertilization practices: integrating high resolution remote sensing with socioeconomic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiqi Zhou; Austin Troy; Morgan. Grove

    2008-01-01

    This article investigates how remotely sensed lawn characteristics, such as parcel lawn area and parcel lawn greenness, combined with household characteristics, can be used to predict household lawn fertilization practices on private residential lands. This study involves two watersheds, Glyndon and Baisman's Run, in Baltimore County, Maryland, USA. Parcel lawn...

  17. Assessing Receiving Water Quality Impacts due to Flow Path Alteration in Residential Catchments, using the Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolosoff, S. E.; Duncan, J.; Endreny, T.

    2001-05-01

    The Croton water supply system, responsible for supplying approximately 10% of New York City's water, provides an opportunity for exploration into the impacts of significant terrestrial flow path alteration upon receiving water quality. Natural flow paths are altered during residential development in order to allow for construction at a given location, reductions in water table elevation in low lying areas and to provide drainage of increased overland flow volumes. Runoff conducted through an artificial drainage system, is prevented from being attenuated by the natural environment, thus the pollutant removal capacity inherent in most natural catchments is often limited to areas where flow paths are not altered by development. By contrasting the impacts of flow path alterations in two small catchments in the Croton system, with different densities of residential development, we can begin to identify appropriate limits to the re-routing of runoff in catchments draining into surface water supplies. The Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model (SWMM) will be used as a tool to predict the runoff quantity and quality generated from two small residential catchments and to simulate the potential benefits of changes to the existing drainage system design, which may improve water quality due to longer residence times.

  18. The decision of out-of-home placement in residential care after parental neglect: Empirically testing a psychosocial model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Leonor; Calheiros, Manuela; Pereira, Cícero

    2015-11-01

    Out-of-home placement decisions in residential care are complex, ambiguous and full of uncertainty, especially in cases of parental neglect. Literature on this topic is so far unable to understand and demonstrate the source of errors involved in those decisions and still fails to focus on professional's decision making process. Therefore, this work intends to test a socio-psychological model of decision-making that is a more integrated, dualistic and ecological version of the Theory of Planned Behavior's model. It describes the process through which the decision maker takes into account personal, contextual and social factors of the Decision-Making Ecology in the definition of his/her decision threshold. One hundred and ninety-five professionals from different Children and Youth Protection Units, throughout the Portuguese territory, participated in this online study. After reading a vignette of a (psychological and physical) neglect case toward a one-year-old child, participants were presented with a group of questions that measured worker's assessment of risk, intention, attitude, subjective norm, behavior control and beliefs toward residential care placement decision, as well as worker's behavior experience, emotions and family/child-related-values involved in that decision. A set of structural equation modeling analyses have proven the good fit of the proposed model. The intention to propose a residential care placement decision was determined by cognitive, social, affective, value-laden and experience variables and the perceived risk. Altogether our model explained 61% of professional's decision toward a parental neglect case. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed, namely the importance of raising awareness about the existence of these biased psychosocial determinants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Residential Waste

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Fruergaard, Thilde; Matsufuji, Y.

    2011-01-01

    are discussed in this chapter. Characterizing residential waste is faced with the problem that many residences already divert some waste away from the official collection systems, for example performing home composting of vegetable waste and garden waste, having their bundled newspaper picked up by the scouts...... twice a year or bringing their used furniture to the flea markets organized by charity clubs. Thus, much of the data available on residential waste represents collected waste and not necessarily all generated waste. The latter can only be characterized by careful studies directly at the source......, but such studies are very expensive if fair representation of both spatial and temporal variations should be obtained. In addition, onsite studies may affect the waste generation in the residence because of the increased focus on the issue. Residential waste is defined in different ways in different countries...

  20. Residential building stocks and flows as dynamic systems: Chilean dwelling stock and energy modeling, including earthquakes.

    OpenAIRE

    Gallardo, Carla

    2012-01-01

    The building sector comprises a very important part of each country s economy, playing an important role in the consumption of resources and energy. In practice there is little knowledge on how the building stock develops. It is useful then to understand the dynamics and the metabolism of the built environment. Research on building stocks, predominantly on the residential sector, has been performed mainly for developed countries. There is little or none research on building stock for developi...

  1. Hybrid model predictive control of a residential HVAC system with on-site thermal energy generation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorentini, Massimo; Wall, Josh; Ma, Zhenjun; Braslavsky, Julio H.; Cooper, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A comprehensive approach to managing thermal energy in residential buildings. • Solar-assisted HVAC system with on-site energy generation and storage. • Mixed logic-dynamical building model identified using experimental data. • Design and implementation of a logic-dynamical model predictive control strategy. • MPC applied to the Net-Zero Energy house winner of the Solar Decathlon China 2013. - Abstract: This paper describes the development, implementation and experimental investigation of a Hybrid Model Predictive Control (HMPC) strategy to control solar-assisted heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with on-site thermal energy generation and storage. A comprehensive approach to the thermal energy management of a residential building is presented to optimise the scheduling of the available thermal energy resources to meet a comfort objective. The system has a hybrid nature with both continuous variables and discrete, logic-driven operating modes. The proposed control strategy is organized in two hierarchical levels. At the high-level, an HMPC controller with a 24-h prediction horizon and a 1-h control step is used to select the operating mode of the HVAC system. At the low-level, each operating mode is optimised using a 1-h rolling prediction horizon with a 5-min control step. The proposed control strategy has been practically implemented on the Building Management and Control System (BMCS) of a Net Zero-Energy Solar Decathlon house. This house features a sophisticated HVAC system comprising of an air-based photovoltaic thermal (PVT) collector and a phase change material (PCM) thermal storage integrated with the air-handling unit (AHU) of a ducted reverse-cycle heat pump system. The simulation and experimental results demonstrated the high performance achievable using an HMPC approach to optimising complex multimode HVAC systems in residential buildings, illustrating efficient selection of the appropriate operating modes

  2. Agent-based model for electricity consumption and storage to evaluate economic viability of tariff arbitrage for residential sector demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Storage-based demand response (loadshifting) is underutilized in residential sector. • Economics (arbitrage savings versus equipment cost) are not well understood. • Stochastic demand models and real-life tariffs can illuminate economic viability. • A range of available storage options provide economically viable DR. • Daily/seasonal stochastic demand variations crucial to understanding optimum capacity. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) is one of many approaches to address temporal mismatches in demand and supply of grid electricity. More common in the commercial sector, DR usually refers to reducing consumption at certain hours or seasons, thus reducing peak demand from the grid. In the residential sector, where sophisticated appliance-level controls such as automatic dimming of lights or on-demand lowering of air conditioning are less common, building-based electricity storage to shift grid consumption from peak to off-peak times could provide DR without requiring consumers to operate their appliances on shifted or reduced schedules: Storage would be dispatched to appliances as needed while still shaving peaks on the grid. Technologically, storage and two-way-inverters are readily available to enable such residential DR. Economically, however, the situation is less clear. Specifically, are time-varying electricity tariffs available such that electricity cost reduction via arbitrage could offset manufacturing, financing, and installation costs of the required storage? To address this question we (i) devise an agent-based appliance-level stochastic model to simulate the electricity demand of an average U.S. household; (ii) loadshift the demand via simple dispatch strategies; and (iii) determine potential profits to the building owner, i.e. reduced electricity cost of the modified demand with realistic tariffs (Con Edison, NY) minus storage cost. We determine the economic viability for a range of traditional and advanced storage technologies

  3. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

  4. The future of hydropower planning modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, J.; Zuñiga, D.; Nowak, W.; Olivares, M. A.; Castelletti, A.; Thilmant, A.

    2017-12-01

    Planning the investment and operation of hydropower plants with optimization tools dates back to the 1970s. The focus used to be solely on the provision of energy. However, advances in computational capacity and solving algorithms, dynamic markets, expansion of renewable sources, and a better understanding of hydropower environmental impacts have recently led to the development of novel planning approaches. In this work, we provide a review, systematization, and trend analysis of these approaches. Further, through interviews with experts, we outline the future of hydropower planning modeling and identify the gaps towards it. We classified the found models along environmental, economic, multipurpose and technical criteria. Environmental interactions include hydropeaking mitigation, water quality protection and limiting greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. Economic and regulatory criteria consider uncertainties of fossil fuel prices and relicensing of water rights and power purchase agreements. Multipurpose considerations account for irrigation, tourism, flood protection and drinking water. Recently included technical details account for sedimentation in reservoirs and variable efficiencies of turbines. Additional operational considerations relate to hydrological aspects such as dynamic reservoir inflows, water losses, and climate change. Although many of the above criteria have been addressed in detail on a project-to-project basis, models remain overly simplistic for planning large power fleets. Future hydropower planning tools are expected to improve the representation of the water-energy nexus, including environmental and multipurpose criteria. Further, they will concentrate on identifying new sources of operational flexibility (e.g. through installing additional turbines and pumps) for integrating renewable energy. The operational detail will increase, potentially emphasizing variable efficiencies, storage capacity losses due to sedimentation, and the

  5. Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

    2013-02-01

    Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Developing a theoretical model and questionnaire survey instrument to measure the success of electronic health records in residential aged care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ping; Qian, Siyu

    2018-01-01

    Electronic health records (EHR) are introduced into healthcare organizations worldwide to improve patient safety, healthcare quality and efficiency. A rigorous evaluation of this technology is important to reduce potential negative effects on patient and staff, to provide decision makers with accurate information for system improvement and to ensure return on investment. Therefore, this study develops a theoretical model and questionnaire survey instrument to assess the success of organizational EHR in routine use from the viewpoint of nursing staff in residential aged care homes. The proposed research model incorporates six variables in the reformulated DeLone and McLean information systems success model: system quality, information quality, service quality, use, user satisfaction and net benefits. Two variables training and self-efficacy were also incorporated into the model. A questionnaire survey instrument was designed to measure the eight variables in the model. After a pilot test, the measurement scale was used to collect data from 243 nursing staff members in 10 residential aged care homes belonging to three management groups in Australia. Partial least squares path modeling was conducted to validate the model. The validated EHR systems success model predicts the impact of the four antecedent variables-training, self-efficacy, system quality and information quality-on the net benefits, the indicator of EHR systems success, through the intermittent variables use and user satisfaction. A 24-item measurement scale was developed to quantitatively evaluate the performance of an EHR system. The parsimonious EHR systems success model and the measurement scale can be used to benchmark EHR systems success across organizations and units and over time.

  7. Condition assessment and strengthening of residential units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatheer Zahra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available About 40, ground plus one (G+1 residential units were designed using a hybrid structural framing system (RC frame and load bearing walls. A few months after the completion of the ground floor of the residential units, cracks appeared at several locations in the structure. Field and Laboratory testing was conducted to ascertain the in situ strength of concrete and steel reinforcement. The results of the experimental work were used in the analytical ETABS model for the structural stability calculations. The results indicated that residential units were marginally safe in the existing condition (completed ground floor, but the anticipated construction of the floor above the ground floor (G+1 could not be carried out as the strength of the structural system was inadequate. To increase the safety of existing ground floor and to provide the option of the construction of one floor above, rehabilitation and strengthening design was performed. The proposed strengthening design made use of welded wire fabric (WWF and carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP laminates/sheets for the strengthening of walls, columns and slabs. The residential units will be strengthened in the near future.

  8. Residential Mechanical Precooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    German, a. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Hoeschele, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

    2014-12-01

    This research conducted by the Alliance for Residential Building Innovation team evaluated mechanical air conditioner pre-cooling strategies in homes throughout the United States. EnergyPlus modeling evaluated two homes with different performance characteristics in seven climates. Results are applicable to new construction homes and most existing homes built in the last 10 years, as well as fairly efficient retrofitted homes.

  9. A Model of Clean Water Supply and Improvement of Enviromental Sanitary Conditions in Residential Clusters in The Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Nguyen Thuy Lan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In accordance with Decision 99/TTg dated 9/2/1996 and Decision 173/TTg dated 6/11/2001 of the Prime Minister regarding the construction program of residential clusters (residential flood free areas, these residential areas as constructed would be fully equipped with critical infrastructures and services such as water supply and drainage works, toilets with sanitary appropriateness, etc. to ensure environmental sanitary conditions in the residential clusters. However, the actual surveys done in residential clusters in the Mekong Delta show that many arising problems must be addressed to enable the local communities to have better living conditions and ensure the sanitary conditions and environmental safety.

  10. A demand response modeling for residential consumers in smart grid environment using game theory based energy scheduling algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sofana Reka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, demand response modeling scheme is proposed for residential consumers using game theory algorithm as Generalized Tit for Tat (GTFT Dominant Game based Energy Scheduler. The methodology is established as a work flow domain model between the utility and the user considering the smart grid framework. It exhibits an algorithm which schedules load usage by creating several possible tariffs for consumers such that demand is never raised. This can be done both individually and among multiple users of a community. The uniqueness behind the demand response proposed is that, the tariff is calculated for all hours and the load during the peak hours which can be rescheduled is shifted based on the Peak Average Ratio. To enable the vitality of the work simulation results of a general case of three domestic consumers are modeled extended to a comparative performance and evaluation with other algorithms and inference is analyzed.

  11. Demand for natural gas: residential and commercial markets in Ontario and British Columbia. [Econometric-model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, E R [Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver; Watkins, G C

    1977-02-01

    An econometric model is used to project natural gas demand in the residential and commercial market sectors. The model specification is a generalization of one developed by Balestra and Nerlove (Econometrica, 34: 585-612(1966)). Demand that is potentially variable because it is not committed to past investments (flexibe demand) is distinguished from demand that is inflexible because it is tied to existing equipment stocks (captive demand). Attention is focused on the effect of temperature variations on gas demand. The nonlinear equation system is estimated by a maximum-likelihood method, using annual data for British Columbia and Ontario during the period of 1959 to 1974. Results show that only in the long run does price have a significant impact on demand. The model is applicable for medium-term policy simulation, but is limited to natural gas fuel. 15 references.

  12. Modelling of future hydrogeological conditions at SFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmen, L.G.; Stigsson, M.

    2001-03-01

    The purpose is to estimate the future groundwater movements at the SFR repository and to produce input to the quantitative safety assessment of the SFR. The future flow pattern of the groundwater is of interest, since components of the waste emplaced in a closed and abandoned repository will dissolve in the groundwater and be transported by the groundwater to the ground surface. The study is based on a system analysis approach. Three-dimensional models were devised of the studied domain. The models include the repository tunnels and the surrounding rock mass with fracture zones. The formal models used for simulation of the groundwater flow are three-dimensional mathematical descriptions of the studied hydraulic system. The studied domain is represented on four scales - regional, local, semi local and detailed - forming four models with different resolutions: regional, local, semi local and detailed models. The local and detailed models include a detailed description of the tunnel system at SFR and of surrounding rock mass and fracture zones. In addition, the detailed model includes description of the different structures that take place inside the deposition tunnels. At the area studied, the shoreline will retreat due to the shore level displacement; this process is included in the models. The studied period starts at 2000 AD and continues until a steady state like situation is reached for the surroundings of the SFR at ca 6000 AD. The models predict that as long as the sea covers the ground above the SFR, the regional groundwater flow as well as the flow in the deposition tunnels are small. However, due to the shore level displacement the shoreline (the sea) will retreat. Because of the retreating shoreline, the general direction of the groundwater flow at SFR will change, from vertical upward to a more horizontal flow; the size of the groundwater flow will be increased as well. The present layout of the SFR includes five deposition tunnels: SILO, BMA, BLA, BTF1

  13. APPLYING THE VERNACULAR MODEL TO HIGH-RISE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amer Al-Jokhadar

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the age of globalisation and continuous urbanisation, architects have a greater responsibility to design residential buildings with comfortable and sustainable environments. However, sustainable solutions should not concern themselves only with utilising technology, but also with creating synergies amongst a community’s social, cultural, historical, and environmental aspects. This research focuses on the implications of this wider definition of sustainability within the hot-arid climates of the Middle East and North Africa. Most of the current high-rise residential buildings in these regions do not promote social cohesion as they have been constructed without consideration for local identity and lifestyle. In contrast, vernacular courtyard dwellings and neighbourhoods offer good examples of socially cohesive and healthy environments. Yet, vernacular houses might not be compatible with pressures of modern construction. The question then becomes how to maintain the relationship between the spatial, social and environmental aspects while employing the latest technologies and materials. This paper presents the different qualities of vernacular houses and neighbourhoods in the different regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Social and spatial relationships of different cases are assessed, through a typological analysis approach using a developed syntactic-geometric model, to trace the lifestyle and the cultural values of the society. The aim is a parametric exploration of appropriate sustainable solutions that facilitate the synergy of socio-climatic requirements, the well-being qualities of the residents, and the specifics of culture, time and people while designing sustainable high-rise developments.

  14. Gravity models to classify commuting vs. resident workers. An application to the analysis of residential risk in a contaminated area

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The analysis of risk for the population residing and/or working in contaminated areas raises the topic of commuting. In fact, especially in contaminated areas, commuting groups are likely to be subject to lower exposure than residents. Only very recently environmental epidemiology has started considering the role of commuting as a differential source of exposure in contaminated areas. In order to improve the categorization of groups, this paper applies a gravitational model to the analysis of residential risk for workers in the Gela petrochemical complex, which began life in the early 60s in the municipality of Gela (Sicily, Italy) and is the main source of industrial pollution in the local area. Results A logistic regression model is implemented to measure the capacity of Gela "central location" to attract commuting flows from other sites. Drawing from gravity models, the proposed methodology: a) defines the probability of finding commuters from municipalities outside Gela as a function of the origin's "economic mass" and of its distance from each destination; b) establishes "commuting thresholds" relative to the origin's mass. The analysis includes 367 out of the 390 Sicilian municipalities. Results are applied to define "commuters" and "residents" within the cohort of petrochemical workers. The study population is composed of 5,627 workers. Different categories of residence in Gela are compared calculating Mortality Rate Ratios for lung cancer through a Poisson regression model, controlling for age and calendar period. The mobility model correctly classifies almost 90% of observations. Its application to the mortality analysis confirms a major risk for lung cancer associated with residence in Gela. Conclusions Commuting is a critical aspect of the health-environment relationship in contaminated areas. The proposed methodology can be replicated to different contexts when residential information is lacking or unreliable; however, a careful consideration

  15. Gravity models to classify commuting vs. resident workers. An application to the analysis of residential risk in a contaminated area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    La Rocca Marina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The analysis of risk for the population residing and/or working in contaminated areas raises the topic of commuting. In fact, especially in contaminated areas, commuting groups are likely to be subject to lower exposure than residents. Only very recently environmental epidemiology has started considering the role of commuting as a differential source of exposure in contaminated areas. In order to improve the categorization of groups, this paper applies a gravitational model to the analysis of residential risk for workers in the Gela petrochemical complex, which began life in the early 60s in the municipality of Gela (Sicily, Italy and is the main source of industrial pollution in the local area. Results A logistic regression model is implemented to measure the capacity of Gela "central location" to attract commuting flows from other sites. Drawing from gravity models, the proposed methodology: a defines the probability of finding commuters from municipalities outside Gela as a function of the origin's "economic mass" and of its distance from each destination; b establishes "commuting thresholds" relative to the origin's mass. The analysis includes 367 out of the 390 Sicilian municipalities. Results are applied to define "commuters" and "residents" within the cohort of petrochemical workers. The study population is composed of 5,627 workers. Different categories of residence in Gela are compared calculating Mortality Rate Ratios for lung cancer through a Poisson regression model, controlling for age and calendar period. The mobility model correctly classifies almost 90% of observations. Its application to the mortality analysis confirms a major risk for lung cancer associated with residence in Gela. Conclusions Commuting is a critical aspect of the health-environment relationship in contaminated areas. The proposed methodology can be replicated to different contexts when residential information is lacking or unreliable

  16. Dynamic Heat Production Modeling for Life Cycle Assessment of Insulation in Danish Residential Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sohn, Joshua L.; Kalbar, Pradip; Birkved, Morten

    2017-01-01

    insulation in a Danish single-family detached home. This single family house, is based on averages of current Danish construction practices with building heat losses estimated using Be10. To simulate a changing district heating grid mix, heat supply fuel sources are modeled according to Danish energy mix...... for space heating without insulation over the lifespan of a building. When the energy sources for insulation production are similar to the energy mix that supplies heat, this logic is valid to very high level of insulation. However, in Denmark, as well as many other countries this assumption is becoming...... increasingly incorrect. Given the generally long service life of buildings, the significance of future energy mixes, which are expected/intended to have a smaller environmental impact, can be great. In this paper, a reference house is used to assess the life cycle environmental impacts of mineral wool...

  17. Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Aamir, Munaf Syed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beyeler, Walter E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fellner, Karen Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeffers, Robert Fredric [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silver, Emily [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Villa, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vugrin, Eric D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engelke, Peter [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Burrow, Mat [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Keith, Bruce [United States Military Academy, West Point, NY (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on

  18. Applicability of Related Data, Algorithms, and Models to the Simulation of Ground-Coupled Residential Hot Water Piping in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warner, J.L.; Lutz, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    Residential water heating is an important consideration in California?s building energy efficiency standard. Explicit treatment of ground-coupled hot water piping is one of several planned improvements to the standard. The properties of water, piping, insulation, backfill materials, concrete slabs, and soil, their interactions, and their variations with temperature and over time are important considerations in the required supporting analysis. Heat transfer algorithms and models devised for generalized, hot water distribution system, ground-source heat pump and ground heat exchanger, nuclear waste repository, buried oil pipeline, and underground electricity transmission cable applications can be adapted to the simulation of under-slab water piping. A numerical model that permits detailed examination of and broad variations in many inputs while employing a technique to conserve computer run time is recommended.

  19. ENERGY STAR Certified Residential Dishwashers

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Certified models meet all ENERGY STAR requirements as listed in the Version 6.0 ENERGY STAR Program Requirements for Residential Dishwashers that are effective as of...

  20. ENERGY STAR Certified Residential Freezers

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Certified models meet all ENERGY STAR requirements as listed in the Version 5.0 ENERGY STAR Program Requirements for Residential Refrigerators and Freezers that are...

  1. ENERGY STAR Certified Residential Refrigerators

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Certified models meet all ENERGY STAR requirements as listed in the Version 5.0 ENERGY STAR Program Requirements for Residential Refrigerators and Freezers that are...

  2. Closing the gap between socioeconomic and financial implications of residential and community level hydrogen-based energy systems: Incentives needed for a bridge to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco, Laura E.

    benefits and costs of hydrogen-based alternatives, H2POWER compares the financial and socioeconomic costs of home and neighborhood refueling units to a baseline of "conventional" sources of residential electricity, space heat, water heat, and vehicle fuel. The model can also calculate the "gap" between the financial cost of the technology and the environmental cost of the externalities that are generated using conventional energy sources. H2POWER is a flexible, user-friendly tool that allows the user to specify different production pathways, supplemental power sources (renewable and non-renewable), component characteristics, electricity mixes, and other analysis parameters in order to customize the results to specific projects. The model has also built-in default values for each of the input fields based on national averages, standard technology specifications and input from experts.

  3. Residential greenhouse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-02-01

    The following report examines the technical and economic viability of residential greenhouse additions in Whitehorse, Yukon. The greenhouse was constructed using the south facing wall of an existing residence as a common wall. Total construction costs were $18,000, including labour. Annual fuel demand for the residence has been reduced by about 10 per cent for an annual saving of $425. In addition, produce to the value of $1,000 is grown annually in the greenhouse for domestic consumption and commercial resale. Typically the greenhouse operates for nine months each year. There is a net thermal loss during the months of November, December and January as a result of the large area of glazing. As well as supplementing the heating supply solar greenhouses can provide additional cash crops which can be used to offset the cost of construction. Humidity problems are minimal and can be dealt with by exhausting high humidity air. One system which has been considered for the greenhouse is to use a standard residential heat pump to remove excess moisture and to pump heat into the house. This would have a secondary benefit of excluding the need to circulate greenhouse air through the house. Thus any allergenic reactions to the greenhouse air would be prevented. 8 refs., 3 figs, 2 tabs.

  4. Palaeohydrogeological modelling for potential future repository sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    In order to consider the future behaviour of a groundwater system over time scales of relevance to repository safety assessment, it is necessary to develop an understanding of how the groundwater system has changed over time. This can be done through studying the palaeohydrogeology of the groundwater system. The EQUIP project (Evidence from Quaternary Infills for Palaeohydrogeology) set out to develop and evaluate methodologies for obtaining palaeohydrogeological information from fracture infill minerals formed under past groundwater conditions. EQUIP was a collaborative project funded jointly by the European Commission and, in the UK, by the Environment Agency and UK Nirex Limited. The project also involved partners in Finland, France, Spain and Sweden. The fracture infill material chosen for this investigation was calcite, because its reactions in low temperature groundwater environments are fairly well understood and it is fairly ubiquitous in both crystalline and sedimentary rocks. In addition, geochemical modelling suggests that plausible time scales for growth of individual calcite crystals are in the range 10 to 10,000 years, so they may accumulate a record of groundwater evolution over periods of significant climate change. The project was based on four sites, having different climate histories and geological conditions, at which drillcore samples of the deep crystalline rocks, accompanied by hydrogeological and hydrochemical data for the current groundwater conditions, were already available. The principal study sites were Olkiluoto in Finland, Aspo/Laxemar in Sweden, Sellafield in the UK and Vienne in France. The results of the study focus on the morphology and bulk compositions of calcite, compositional zoning of calcite crystals and compositions of fluid inclusions. There are systematic variations in bulk compositions with depth and also in discrete compositional fluctuations (or zones) in individual calcite crystals. These are inferred to reflect

  5. Experimental and numerical modelling of thermal performance of a residential building in Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vučićević Biljana

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to evaluate simulation of thermal performance of a residential 4 floors high building placed in the suburb of Belgrade (ground and 3 upper floors with it's total surface area of 1410 m2. It's supplied with liquid petroleum gas storage tank as a fuel reservoir since there is automatic gas boiler in each apartment. Measurements have been carried out in first floor apartment (68 m2 heating area in heating season period. Measured parameters are: inside and outside air temperature and U-value of apartment envelope. Weather data is obtained by using METEONORM, the software package for climatic data calculation based on last 10 years measurements. TRNSYS 16 has been used as the simulation tool. The behavior of the building in terms of heating loads for climate on a daily and monthly basis in heating season is investigated. The calculations show possibility for saving energy by optimization inside temperature during different gas boiler working regimes.

  6. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  7. Concepts for Future Large Fire Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. P. Dimitrakopoulos; R. E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    A small number of fires escape initial attack suppression efforts and become large, but their effects are significant and disproportionate. In 1983, of 200,000 wildland fires in the United States, only 4,000 exceeded 100 acres. However, these escaped fires accounted for roughly 95 percent of wildfire-related costs and damages (Pyne, 1984). Thus, future research efforts...

  8. The development of a healing model of care for an Indigenous drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation service: a community-based participatory research approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Alice; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Clifford, Anton

    2017-12-04

    Given the well-established evidence of disproportionately high rates of substance-related morbidity and mortality after release from incarceration for Indigenous Australians, access to comprehensive, effective and culturally safe residential rehabilitation treatment will likely assist in reducing recidivism to both prison and substance dependence for this population. In the absence of methodologically rigorous evidence, the delivery of Indigenous drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation services vary widely, and divergent views exist regarding the appropriateness and efficacy of different potential treatment components. One way to increase the methodological quality of evaluations of Indigenous residential rehabilitation services is to develop partnerships with researchers to better align models of care with the client's, and the community's, needs. An emerging research paradigm to guide the development of high quality evidence through a number of sequential steps that equitably involves services, stakeholders and researchers is community-based participatory research (CBPR). The purpose of this study is to articulate an Indigenous drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation service model of care, developed in collaboration between clients, service providers and researchers using a CBPR approach. This research adopted a mixed methods CBPR approach to triangulate collected data to inform the development of a model of care for a remote Indigenous drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation service. Four iterative CBPR steps of research activity were recorded during the 3-year research partnership. As a direct outcome of the CBPR framework, the service and researchers co-designed a Healing Model of Care that comprises six core treatment components, three core organisational components and is articulated in two program logics. The program logics were designed to specifically align each component and outcome with the mechanism of change for the client or organisation

  9. Modeling Stochastic Energy and Water Consumption to Manage Residential Water Uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, A. M.; Rosenberg, D. E.; Water; Energy Conservation

    2011-12-01

    and energy use, potential savings, and payback periods to install efficient water end-use appliances and fixtures. Stochastic model results show the distributions among households for (i) water end-use, (ii) energy consumed to use water, and (iii) financial payback periods. Compared to deterministic analysis, stochastic modeling results show that hot water fractions for appliances follow normal distributions with high standard deviation and reveal pronounced variations among households that significantly affect energy savings and payback period estimates. These distributions provide an important tool to select and size water conservation programs to simultaneously meet both water and energy conservation goals. They also provide a way to identify and target a small fraction of customers with potential to save large water volumes and energy from appliance retrofits. Future work will embed this household scale stochastic model in city-scale models to identify win-win water management opportunities where households save money by conserving water and energy while cities avoid costs, downsize, or delay infrastructure development.

  10. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  11. Past, Present, and Future Anthropogenic Emissions over Asia: a Regional Air Quality Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jung-Hun; Jung, Bujeon; Choi, Ki-Chul; Seo, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Tae Hyung; Park, Rokjin J.; Youn, Daeok; Jeong, Jaein; Moon, Byung-Kwon; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2010-05-01

    Climate change will also affect future regional air quality which has potential human health, ecosystem, and economic implications. To analyze the impacts of climate change on Asian air quality, the NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research, Korea) integrated modeling framework was developed based on global-to-regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models. In this study, we developed emission inventories for the modeling framework for 1980~2100 with an emphasis on Asia emissions. Two emission processing systems which have functions of emission projection, spatial/temporal allocation, and chemical speciation have been also developed in support of atmospheric chemistry models including GEOS-Chem and Models-3/CMAQ. Asia-based emission estimates, projection factors, temporal allocation parameters were combined to improve regional modeling capability of past, present and future air quality over Asia. The global CO emissions show a 23% decrease from the years 1980 to 2000. For the future CO (from year 2000 to 2100), the A2 scenario shows a 95% increase due to the B40 (Residential-Biofuel) sector of Western Africa, Eastern Africa and East Asia and the F51 (Transport Road-Fossil fuel) sector of Middle East, USA and South Asia. The B1 scenario, however, shows a 79% decrease of emissions due to B40 and F51 sectors of East Asia, South Asia and USA for the same period. In many cases, Asian emissions play important roles for global emission increase or decrease depending on the IPCC scenarios considered. The regional ozone forming potential will be changed due to different VOC/NOx emission ratio changes in the future. More similarities and differences of Asian emission characteristics, in comparison with its global counterpart, are investigated.

  12. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  13. Designing a Sustainable Future with Mental Models

    OpenAIRE

    Bernotat, Anke; Bertling, Jürgen; English, Christiane; Schanz, Judith

    2017-01-01

    Inspired by the question of the Club of Rome as to Design could help to translate the ubiquitous knowledge on sustainability into daily practise and Peter Senge's belief on mental models as a limiting factor to implementation of systemic insight (Senge 2006), we explored working with mental models as a sustainable design tool. We propose a definition for design uses. At the 7th Sustainable Summer School we collected general unsustainable mental models and "designed" sustainable ones. These me...

  14. Coping modeling problem solving versus mastery modeling: effects on adherence, in-session process, and skill acquisition in a residential parent-training program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, C E; Davis, J R; Bremner, R; Dunn, K W; Rzasa, T

    1993-10-01

    This trial compared two approaches used to introduce parenting skills in a residential staff training program. Fifty staff were randomly assigned to: mastery modelling in which videotaped models demonstrated new skills, coping modelling problem solving (CMPS) in which participants formulated their own solutions to the errors depicted by videotaped models, or a waiting-list control group. In both, leaders used modelling, role playing, and homework projects to promote mastery and transfer of new skills. The skills of all groups improved, but CMPS participants attended more sessions, were late to fewer sessions, completed more homework, engaged in more cooperative in-session interaction, rated the program more positively, and reported higher job accomplishment scores. These data suggest that CMPS allowing participants to formulate their own solutions may enhance adherence and reduce the resistance observed in more didactic programs.

  15. Future Air Conditioning Energy Consumption in Developing Countries and what can be done about it: The Potential of Efficiency in the Residential Sector

    OpenAIRE

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E.

    2008-01-01

    The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interest to energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of this product, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paper addresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residential electricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent history has shown that air conditioner ownership can grow grows more rapidly than economic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percent o...

  16. Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

  17. A High-Resolution Spatially Explicit Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach to Commercial and Residential Electricity and Water Demand Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, April M [ORNL; McManamay, Ryan A [ORNL; Nagle, Nicholas N [ORNL; Piburn, Jesse O [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Abstract As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for high resolution spatially explicit estimates for energy and water demand has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy and water consumption, many are provided at a course spatial resolution or rely on techniques which depend on detailed region-specific data sources that are not publicly available for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may therefore not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more flexible Monte-Carlo simulation approach to high-resolution residential and commercial electricity and water consumption modeling that relies primarily on publicly available data sources. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model is both applicable to a wide range of regions and reflective of uncertainties in model results. Key words: Energy Modeling, Water Modeling, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Quantification Acknowledgment This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.

  18. Control Architecture Modeling for Future Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai

    electricity exchange. However, at the same time, it seems that the overall system design cannot keep up by simply adapting in response to changes, but that also new strategies have to be designed in anticipation. Changes to the electricity markets have been suggested to adapt to the limited predictability...... of wind power, and several new control strategies have been proposed, in particular to enable the control of distributed energy resources, including for example, distributed generation or electric vehicles. Market designs addressing the procurement of balancing resources are highly dependent...... on the operation strategies specifying the resource requirements. How should one decide which control strategy and market configuration is best for a future power system? Most research up to this point has addressed single isolated aspects of this design problem. Those of the ideas that fit with current markets...

  19. Dynamic management of integrated residential energy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muratori, Matteo

    This study combines principles of energy systems engineering and statistics to develop integrated models of residential energy use in the United States, to include residential recharging of electric vehicles. These models can be used by government, policymakers, and the utility industry to provide answers and guidance regarding the future of the U.S. energy system. Currently, electric power generation must match the total demand at each instant, following seasonal patterns and instantaneous fluctuations. Thus, one of the biggest drivers of costs and capacity requirement is the electricity demand that occurs during peak periods. These peak periods require utility companies to maintain operational capacity that often is underutilized, outdated, expensive, and inefficient. In light of this, flattening the demand curve has long been recognized as an effective way of cutting the cost of producing electricity and increasing overall efficiency. The problem is exacerbated by expected widespread adoption of non-dispatchable renewable power generation. The intermittent nature of renewable resources and their non-dispatchability substantially limit the ability of electric power generation of adapting to the fluctuating demand. Smart grid technologies and demand response programs are proposed as a technical solution to make the electric power demand more flexible and able to adapt to power generation. Residential demand response programs offer different incentives and benefits to consumers in response to their flexibility in the timing of their electricity consumption. Understanding interactions between new and existing energy technologies, and policy impacts therein, is key to driving sustainable energy use and economic growth. Comprehensive and accurate models of the next-generation power system allow for understanding the effects of new energy technologies on the power system infrastructure, and can be used to guide policy, technology, and economic decisions. This

  20. Choosing the Right Technologies – A Model for Cost Optimized Design of a Renewable Supply System for Residential Zero Energy Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milan, Christian

    , individual performance models are defined. For small scale residential systems the hot water tank is one of the main components, connecting supply and demand side and acting as a buffer during mismatch periods. For this reason, the developed hot water tank model is rather detailed accounting for three...... different temperature layers, two different supply and demand loops as well as individual heat losses. It is presented at the end of the technology chapter. Subsequently, the methodology is validated by investigating the output with one single technology at a time and thus the individual performance models......This work presents a methodology to identify and investigate the cost optimal design of supply systems for Low and Net Zero Energy Buildings with the focus on residential single family houses. A preliminary analysis investigating relevant literature and existing computer tools resulted...

  1. Establishing a Commercialization Model for Innovative Products in the Residential Construction Industry

    OpenAIRE

    McCoy, Andrew Patton

    2007-01-01

    Throughout the world, innovation is viewed as a critical factor in the future health of the construction industry. There is universal interest in successful commercialization of innovative construction products. This thesis focuses on the US construction industry's ability to successfully commercialize innovative products. US small, limited-resource innovators will be key players in this success. Recent failures of entrepreneurial business ventures in the commercialization of such product...

  2. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  3. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  4. Application of the Tripartite Model to a Complicated Sample of Residential Youth with Externalizing Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Eu Gene; Ebesutani, Chad; Young, John

    2013-01-01

    The tripartite model of anxiety and depression has received strong support among child and adolescent populations. Clinical samples of children and adolescents in these studies, however, have usually been referred for treatment of anxiety and depression. This study investigated the fit of the tripartite model with a complicated sample of…

  5. Predicted and actual indoor environmental quality: Verification of occupants' behaviour models in residential buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Fabi, Valentina; Corgnati, Stefano P.

    2016-01-01

    with the building controls (windows, thermostats, solar shading etc.). During the last decade, studies about stochastic models of occupants' behaviour in relation to control of the indoor environment have been published. Often the overall aim of these models is to enable more reliable predictions of building...... performance using building energy performance simulations (BEPS). However, the validity of these models has only been sparsely tested. In this paper, stochastic models of occupants' behaviour from literature were tested against measurements in five apartments. In a monitoring campaign, measurements of indoor....... However, comparisons of the average stochastic predictions with the measured temperatures, relative humidity and CO2 concentrations revealed that the models did not predict the actual indoor environmental conditions well....

  6. Future Shop: A Model Career Placement & Transition Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floyd, Deborah L.; And Others

    During 1988-89, the Collin County Community College District (CCCCD) conducted a project to develop, implement, and evaluate a model career laboratory called a "Future Shop." The laboratory was designed to let users explore diverse career options, job placement opportunities, and transfer resources. The Future Shop lab had three major components:…

  7. Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Tansuchat (Roengchai); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis paper estimates the long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat,

  8. Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat,

  9. Planning for a Low Carbon Future? Comparing Heat Pumps and Cogeneration as the Energy System Options for a New Residential Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jukka Heinonen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to compare, from an urban planning perspective, the choice between combined heat and power (CHP and a ground-source heat pump (HP as the energy systems of a new residential area in the light of the uncertainty related to the assessments. There has been a strong push globally for CHP due to its climate mitigation potential compared to separate production, and consequently it is often prioritized in planning without questioning. However, the uncertainties in assessing the emissions from CHP and alternative options in a certain planning situation make it very difficult to give robust decision guidelines. In addition, even the order of magnitude of the climate impact of a certain plan is actually difficult to assess robustly. With a case study of the new residential development of Härmälänranta in Tampere, Finland, we show how strongly the uncertainties related to (1 utilizing average or marginal electricity as the reference; (2 assigning emissions intensities for the production; and (3 allocating the emissions from CHP to heat and electricity affect the results and lead to varying decision guidelines. We also depict how a rather rarely utilized method in assigning the emissions from CHP is the most robust for planning support.

  10. Energy Efficiency Modelling of Residential Air Source Heat Pump Water Heater

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cong Toan Tran

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The heat pump water heater is one of the most energy efficient technologies for heating water for household use. The present work proposes a simplified model of coefficient of performance and examines its predictive capability. The model is based on polynomial functions where the variables are temperatures and the coefficients are derived from the Australian standard test data, using regression technics. The model enables to estimate the coefficient of performance of the same heat pump water heater under other test standards (i.e. US, Japanese, European and Korean standards. The resulting estimations over a heat-up phase and a full test cycle including a draw off pattern are in close agreement with the measured data. Thus the model allows manufacturers to avoid the need to carry out physical tests for some standards and to reduce product cost. The limitations of the methodology proposed are also discussed.

  11. Dataset for Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based exposure modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset provides the city-specific air exchange rate measurements, modeled, literature-based as well as housing characteristics. This dataset is associated with...

  12. Evaluation of an Implementation Model : A National Investigation of VA Residential Programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cook, Joan M.; Dinnen, Stephanie; Coyne, James C.; Thompson, Richard; Simiola, Vanessa; Ruzek, Josef; Schnurr, Paula P.

    This national investigation utilizes qualitative data to evaluate an implementation model regarding factors influencing provider use of two evidence-based treatments for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Semi-structured qualitative interviews with 198 mental health providers from 38 Department

  13. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  14. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  15. Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger

    In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze and forec......In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze...... and forecast interest rates of different maturities. The structure of oil futures resembles the structure of interest rates and this motivates the use of this model for our purposes. The data set is vast and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model allows for a significant dimension reduction by introducing three...

  16. Development of a High-Fidelity Model for an Electrically Driven Energy Storage Flywheel Suitable for Small Scale Residential Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa E. Amiryar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Energy storage systems (ESS are key elements that can be used to improve electrical system efficiency by contributing to balance of supply and demand. They provide a means for enhancing the power quality and stability of electrical systems. They can enhance electrical system flexibility by mitigating supply intermittency, which has recently become problematic, due to the increased penetration of renewable generation. Flywheel energy storage systems (FESS are a technology in which there is gathering interest due to a number of advantages offered over other storage solutions. These technical qualities attributed to flywheels include high power density, low environmental impact, long operational life, high round-trip efficiency and high cycle life. Furthermore, when configured in banks, they can store MJ levels of energy without any upper limit. Flywheels configured for grid connected operation are systems comprising of a mechanical part, the flywheel rotor, bearings and casings, and the electric drive part, inclusive of motor-generator (MG and power electronics. This contribution focusses on the modelling and simulation of a high inertia FESS for energy storage applications which has the potential for use in the residential sector in more challenging situations, a subject area in which there are few publications. The type of electrical machine employed is a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM and this, along with the power electronics drive, is simulated in the MATLAB/Simulink environment. A brief description of the flywheel structure and applications are given as a means of providing context for the electrical modelling and simulation reported. The simulated results show that the system run-down losses are 5% per hour, with overall roundtrip efficiency of 88%. The flywheel speed and energy storage pattern comply with the torque variations, whilst the DC-bus voltage remains constant and stable within ±3% of the rated voltage, regardless of

  17. Children's residential exposure to chlorpyrifos: Application of CPPAES field measurements of chlorpyrifos and TCPy within MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hore, Paromita; Zartarian, Valerie; Xue Jianping; Ozkaynak, Haluk; Wang, S.-W.; Yang, Y.-C.; Chu, P.-Ling; Sheldon, Linda; Robson, Mark; Needham, Larry; Barr, Dana; Freeman, Natalie; Georgopoulos, Panos; Lioy, Paul J.

    2006-01-01

    The comprehensive individual field-measurements on non-dietary exposure collected in the Children's-Post-Pesticide-Application-Exposure-Study (CPPAES) were used within MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides, a physically based stochastic human exposure and dose model. In this application, however, the model was run deterministically. The MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides employed the CPPAES as input variables to simulate the exposure and the dose profiles for seven children over a 2-week post-application period following a routine residential and professional indoor crack-and-crevice chlorpyrifos application. The input variables were obtained from a personal activity diary, microenvironmental measurements and personal biomonitoring data obtained from CPPAES samples collected from the individual children and in their homes. Simulation results were compared with CPPAES field measured values obtained from the children's homes to assess the utility of the different microenvironmental data collected in CPPAES, i.e. indicator toys and wipe samplers to estimate aggregate exposures that can be result from one or more exposure pathways and routes. The final analyses of the database involved comparisons of the actual data obtained from the individual biomarker samples of a urinary metabolite of chlorpyrifos (TCPy) and the values predicted by MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides using the CPPAES-derived variables. Because duplicate diet samples were not part of the CPPAES study design, SHEDs-Pesticides simulated dose profiles did not account for the dietary route. The research provided more confidence in the types of data that can be used in the inhalation and dermal contact modules of MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides to predict the pesticide dose received by a child. It was determined that we still need additional understanding about: (1) the types of activities and durations of activities that result in non-dietary ingestion of pesticides and (2) the influence of dietary exposures on the levels of TCPy found in the

  18. Final Report: Towards an Emergent Model of Technology Adoption for Accelerating the Diffusion of Residential Solar PV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rai, Varun [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-08-15

    This project sought to enable electric utilities in Texas to accelerate diffusion of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) by systematically identifying and targeting existing barriers to PV adoption. A core goal of the project was to develop an integrated research framework that combines survey research, econometric modeling, financial modeling, and implementation and evaluation of pilot projects to study the PV diffusion system. This project considered PV diffusion as an emergent system, with attention to the interactions between the constituent parts of the PV socio-technical system including: economics of individual decision-making; peer and social influences; behavioral responses; and information and transaction costs. We also conducted two pilot projects, which have yielded new insights into behavioral and informational aspects of PV adoption. Finally, this project has produced robust and generalizable results that will provide deeper insights into the technology-diffusion process that will be applicable for the design of utility programs for other technologies such as home-energy management systems and plug-in electric vehicles. When we started this project in 2013 there was little systematic research on characterizing the decision-making process of households interested in adopting PV. This project was designed to fill that research gap by analyzing the PV adoption process from the consumers' decision-making perspective and with the objective to systematically identifying and addressing the barriers that consumers face in the adoption of PV. The two key components of that decision-making process are consumers' evaluation of: (i) uncertainties and non-monetary costs associated with the technology and (ii) the direct monetary cost-benefit. This project used an integrated approach to study both the non-monetary and the monetary components of the consumer decision-making process.

  19. Residential Demand Response Behaviour Modeling applied to Cyber-physical Intrusion Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Tyge, Emil; Kosek, Anna Magdalena

    2017-01-01

    by a mix of physical system parameters, exogenous influences, user behaviour and preferences, which can be characterized by unstructured models such as a time-varying finite impulse response. In this study, which is based on field data, it is shown how this characteristic response behaviours can...

  20. Structure and data requirements of an end-use model for residential ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    driniev

    2004-07-03

    Jul 3, 2004 ... 2 Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, Rand Afrikaans University, PO Box 524, Auckland Park 2006, ... One such approach is end-use modelling, which has a ... chemistry and are not easily removed after being dissolved into the ..... with a rainfall of 12 mm/month for month m the same applies to all.

  1. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  2. Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing hea...... for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All Rights reserved......The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing...

  3. Modeling of an Air Conditioning System with Geothermal Heat Pump for a Residential Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Cocchi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The need to address climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions attaches great importance to research aimed at using renewable energy. Geothermal energy is an interesting alternative concerning the production of energy for air conditioning of buildings (heating and cooling, through the use of geothermal heat pumps. In this work a model has been developed in order to simulate an air conditioning system with geothermal heat pump. A ground source heat pump (GSHP uses the shallow ground as a source of heat, thus taking advantage of its seasonally moderate temperatures. GSHP must be coupled with geothermal exchangers. The model leads to design optimization of geothermal heat exchangers and to verify the operation of the geothermal plant.

  4. Thermal comfort in residential buildings - Failure to predict by Standard model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, R. [Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Rabin Building, Technion City, Haifa 32000 (Israel); Paciuk, M. [National Building Research Institute, Technion - IIT, Haifa 32000 (Israel)

    2009-05-15

    A field study, conducted in 189 dwellings in winter and 205 dwellings in summer, included measurement of hygro-thermal conditions and documentation of occupant responses and behavior patterns. Both samples included both passive and actively space-conditioned dwellings. Predicted mean votes (PMV) computed using Fanger's model yielded significantly lower-than-reported thermal sensation (TS) values, especially for the winter heated and summer air-conditioned groups. The basic model assumption of a proportional relationship between thermal response and thermal load proved to be inadequate, with actual thermal comfort achieved at substantially lower loads than predicted. Survey results also refuted the model's second assumption that symmetrical responses in the negative and positive directions of the scale represent similar comfort levels. Results showed that the model's curve of predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PPD) substantially overestimated the actual percentage of dissatisfied within the partial group of respondents who voted TS > 0 in winter as well as within the partial group of respondents who voted TS < 0 in summer. Analyses of sensitivity to possible survey-related inaccuracy factors (metabolic rate, clothing thermal resistance) did not explain the systematic discrepancies. These discrepancies highlight the role of contextual variables (local climate, expectations, available control) in thermal adaptation in actual settings. Collected data was analyzed statistically to establish baseline data for local standardized thermal and energy calculations. A 90% satisfaction criterion yielded 19.5 C and 26 C as limit values for passive winter and summer design conditions, respectively, while during active conditioning periods, set-point temperatures of 21.5 C and 23 C should be assumed for winter and summer, respectively. (author)

  5. Examining a "Household" Model of Residential Long-term Care in Nova Scotia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janice Keefe

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, Nova Scotia began to implement its Continuing Care Strategy which was grounded in a vision of providing client-centered care for continuing care clients, including residents of nursing homes. Considerable evidence pointed to the benefits of the “household” model of care—which led the province to adopt the smaller self-contained household model as a requirement for owners/operators seeking to build government-funded new and replacement nursing homes. The specific goals of the reform (the adoption of the household model included increasing the proportion of single rooms, improving the home-likeness of the facility, and more generally, providing high-quality care services. The reform was influenced by recognition of the need for change, rapid population aging in the province, and strong political will at a time when fiscal resources were available. To achieve the reform, Nova Scotia Department of Health released two key documents (2007 to guide the design and operation of all new and replacement facilities procured using a request for proposal process: The Long Term Care Program Requirements and the Space and Design Requirements. Results from a research study examining resident quality of life suggest regardless of physical design or staffing approach high resident quality of life can be experienced, while at the same time recognizing that the facilities with “self-contained household” design and expanded care staff roles were uniquely supporting relationships and home-likeness and positively impacting resident quality of life.

  6. Change Analysis and Decision Tree Based Detection Model for Residential Objects across Multiple Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHEN Liyan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Change analysis and detection plays important role in the updating of multi-scale databases.When overlap an updated larger-scale dataset and a to-be-updated smaller-scale dataset,people usually focus on temporal changes caused by the evolution of spatial entities.Little attention is paid to the representation changes influenced by map generalization.Using polygonal building data as an example,this study examines the changes from different perspectives,such as the reasons for their occurrence,their performance format.Based on this knowledge,we employ decision tree in field of machine learning to establish a change detection model.The aim of the proposed model is to distinguish temporal changes that need to be applied as updates to the smaller-scale dataset from representation changes.The proposed method is validated through tests using real-world building data from Guangzhou city.The experimental results show the overall precision of change detection is more than 90%,which indicates our method is effective to identify changed objects.

  7. A cost optimization model for 100% renewable residential energy supply systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milan, Christian; Bojesen, Carsten; Nielsen, Mads Pagh

    2012-01-01

    The concept of net zero energy buildings (Net ZEB) has received increased attention throughout the last years. A well adapted and optimized design of the energy supply system is crucial for the performance of these buildings. To achieve this, a holistic approach is needed which accounts for the i......The concept of net zero energy buildings (Net ZEB) has received increased attention throughout the last years. A well adapted and optimized design of the energy supply system is crucial for the performance of these buildings. To achieve this, a holistic approach is needed which accounts......'s involving on-site production of heat and electricity in combination with electricity exchanged with the public grid. The model is based on linear programming and determines the optimal capacities for each relevant supply technology in terms of the overall system costs. It has been successfully applied...

  8. Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing heating comfort is minimised. The private solution may deviate from the socio-economical optimal solution and we suggest changes to policy to incentivise the individuals to make choices more in line with the socio-economic optimal mix of energy savings and technologies. The households can combine their primary heating source with secondary heating e.g. a woodstove. This choice results in increased indoor air pollution with fine particles causing health effects. We integrate health cost due to use of woodstoves into household optimisation of heating expenditures. The results show that due to a combination of low costs of primary fuel and low environmental performance of woodstoves today, included health costs lead to decreased use of secondary heating. Overall the interdependence of heat generation technology- and heat saving-choice is significant. The total optimal level of heat savings for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. - Highlights: • Heat saving investment and heat technology choice are interdependent. • Health damage costs should be included in private heating choice optimisation. • Flexibility in heating technology choice reduce the optimal level of saving investments. • Models of private and socioeconomic optimal heating produce different technology mix. • Rebound effects are moderate but varies greatly among consumer categories

  9. Application of the SEIPS Model to Analyze Medication Safety in a Crisis Residential Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Maria L; Talley, Brenda; Frith, Karen H

    2018-02-01

    Medication safety and error reduction has been studied in acute and long-term care settings, but little research is found in the literature regarding mental health settings. Because mental health settings are complex, medication administration is vulnerable to a variety of errors from transcription to administration. The purpose of this study was to analyze critical factors related to a mental health work system structure and processes that threaten safe medication administration practices. The Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) model provides a framework to analyze factors affecting medication safety. The model approach analyzes the work system concepts of technology, tasks, persons, environment, and organization to guide the collection of data. In the study, the Lean methodology tools were used to identify vulnerabilities in the system that could be targeted later for improvement activities. The project director completed face-to-face interviews, asked nurses to record disruptions in a log, and administered a questionnaire to nursing staff. The project director also conducted medication chart reviews and recorded medication errors using a standardized taxonomy for errors that allowed categorization of the prevalent types of medication errors. Results of the study revealed disruptions during the medication process, pharmacology training needs, and documentation processes as the primary opportunities for improvement. The project engaged nurses to identify sustainable quality improvement strategies to improve patient safety. The mental health setting carries challenges for safe medication administration practices. Through analysis of the structure, process, and outcomes of medication administration, opportunities for quality improvement and sustainable interventions were identified, including minimizing the number of distractions during medication administration, training nurses on psychotropic medications, and improving the documentation

  10. Problems associated with modelling future biomass use in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkson, J.; Fenhann, J.

    1997-01-01

    One of the main objectives of modelling biomass consumption is to obtain accurate assessment of current and future biomass supply and demand patterns. Some problems associated with biomass modelling in the developing countries are discussed, the focus is put on Africa. The wood fuel and charcoal consumption in households are investigated. Differences between rural and urban areas are pointed out. (K.A.)

  11. Modeling and simulation of the energy use in an occupied residential building in cold climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olofsson, Thomas; Mahlia, T.M.I.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► An overview of the energy-characteristics based on illustrations in graphical figures. ► Figures to support identification and validation energy refurbishment measures. ► Emphasizing energy efficiency measures in early stage of building design. -- Abstract: In order to reduce the energy use in the building sector there is a demand for tools that can identify significant building energy performance parameters. In the work introduced in this paper presents a methodology, based on a simulation module and graphical figures, for interactive investigations of the building energy performance. The building energy use simulation program is called TEKLA and is using EN832 with an improved procedure in calculating the heat loss through the floor and the solar heat gain. The graphical figures are simple and are illustrating the savings based on retrofit measures and climate conditions. The accuracy of the TEKLA simulation was investigated on a typical single-family building in Sweden for a period of time in a space heating demand of relatively cold and mild climate. The model was found applicable for relative investigations. Further, the methodology was applied on a typical single family reference building. The climate data from three locations in Sweden were collected and a set of relevant measures were studied. The investigated examples illustrate how decisions in the early stages of the building design process can have decisive importance on the final building energy performance.

  12. Modeling and optimization of a 1 kWe HT-PEMFC-based micro-CHP residential system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arsalis, Alexandros; Nielsen, Mads Pagh; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2012-01-01

    A high temperature-proton exchange membrane (HT-PEMFC)-based micro-combined-heat-and-power (CHP) residential system is designed and optimized, using a genetic algorithm (GA) optimization strategy. The proposed system consists of a fuel cell stack, steam methane reformer (SMR) reactor, water gas...

  13. Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazumdar Soumya

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Results Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m. The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Conclusion Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

  14. Convergence of Residential Gateway Technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, F.T.H. den; Balm, M.; Jong, C.M. de; Kwaaitaal, J.J.B.

    2004-01-01

    A new OSI-based model is described that can be used for the classification of residential gateways. It is applied to analyze current gateway solutions and draw evolutionary paths for the medium to long term. From this it is concluded that particularly set-top boxes and broadband modems, as opposed

  15. Convergence of residential gateway technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, den F.T.H.; Balm, M.; Jong, de C.M.; Kwaaitaal, J.J.B.

    2004-01-01

    A new OSI-based model is described that can be used for the classification of residential gateways. It is applied to analyze current gateway solutions and draw evolutionary paths for the medium to long term. From this it is concluded that particularly set-top boxes and broadband modems, as opposed

  16. Residential Mechanical Precooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    German, Alea [Davis Energy Group, Davis, CA (United States). Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI); Hoeschele, Marc [Davis Energy Group, Davis, CA (United States). Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI)

    2014-12-01

    Residential air conditioning (AC) represents a challenging load for many electric utilities with poor load factors. Mechanical precooling improves the load factor by shifting cooling operation from on-peak to off-peak hours. This provides benefits to utilities and the electricity grid, as well as to occupants who can take advantage of time-of-use (TOU) electricity rates. Performance benefits stem from reduced compressor cycling, and shifting condensing unit operation to earlier periods of the day when outdoor temperatures are more favorable to operational efficiency. Finding solutions that save energy and reduce demand on the electricity grid is an important national objective and supports key Building America goals. The Alliance for Residential Building Innovation team evaluated mechanical AC precooling strategies in homes throughout the United States. EnergyPlus modeling was used to evaluate two homes with different performance characteristics in seven climates. Results are applicable to new construction homes and most existing homes built in the last 10 years, as well as fairly efficient retrofitted homes. A successful off-peak AC strategy offers the potential for increased efficiency and improved occupant comfort, and promotes a more reliable and robust electricity grid. Demand response capabilities and further integration with photovoltaic TOU generation patterns provide additional opportunities to flatten loads and optimize grid impacts.

  17. Air quality and residential wood combustion - application of the model system SIMAIRrwc for some Swedish municipalities; Luftkvalitet och smaaskalig biobraensleeldning. Tillaempningar av SIMAIRved foer naagra kommuner

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omstedt, Gunnar; Andersson, Stefan; Johansson, Christer; Loefgren, Bengt-Erik

    2008-11-15

    SIMAIRrwc is a Web based evaluation tool for meeting the EU directive on air pollution limits in residential areas using wood combustion. The background is a four-year research program (2001-2004) called Biomass Combustion Health and Environment. Some conclusions from this program were that emissions from small scale wood combustion can influence human health mainly due to high emitting old wood stoves during cold weather conditions and that the air quality in such areas can improve significantly if old wood stoves were replaced by modern wood boilers attached to a storage tank or with a pellet boiler. SIMAIRrwc is based on the same principles as SIMAIRroad, which is a Web based evaluation tool for road traffic i.e. coupled model system using different models on local, urban and regional geographical scales, best available emission data, but at the same time presented in a very simplified way. In this project SIMAIRrwc has been applied in five different Swedish municipalities. The aim has been to apply and improve the model in cooperation with the municipalities. The conclusions from the project are: Small scale wood combustions in residential areas are local problems which sometimes include only a few houses and/or wood-burners. Air quality problems related to the EU directive are mainly due to particles. Combinations of residential areas with wood combustion and emissions from nearby dense traffic roads might give rise to bad air quality. Actions require knowledge about individual equipment which needs information from the local chimney sweeps. The best way to identify problem areas is to use model calculations. If model calculations indicate risks of exceeding air quality limits, then new calculations should be made with improved input data taking into account for example information of district heating or other installations that can effect the emissions. Before actions are taken it may also be useful to make measurements. The measurement site can then be

  18. Using AGWA and the KINEROS2 Model-to-Model Green Infrastructure in Two Typical Residential Lots in Prescott, AZ

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Urban tool provides a step-by-step process to model subdivisions using the KINEROS2 model, with and without Green Infrastructure (GI) practices. AGWA utilizes the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS2) model, an event driven, ...

  19. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  20. The “housing bubble” and financial factors: Insights from a structural model of the French and Spanish residential markets.

    OpenAIRE

    Antipa, P.; Lecat, R.

    2009-01-01

    Over the last decade, France and Spain have experienced property price and residential investment increases which were among the strongest and the lengthiest in the euro area. Although the quality of the underlying data limits the precision of the estimates, the present paper aims at analysing the fundamental factors behind these evolutions. The analysis presented here assesses whether the observed price dynamics may be attributed to a pure expectation bubble phenomenon or to the large change...

  1. Faculty Unions, Business Models, and the Academy's Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Gary

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the author addresses questions about the future of faculty unions, business models, and the academy by providing some current and historical context regarding the causes of and conflicts about faculty unions. He also reviews trends in college and university management over the past three decades, using California, Ohio, and…

  2. Generic skills requirements (KSA model) towards future mechanical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... Statistics and Discriminant Analysis (DA) as required to achieve the objective of the study. This study will guide all future engineers, especially in the field of Mechanical Engineering in Malaysia to penetrate the job market according to the current market needs. Keywords: generic skills; KSA model; mechanical engineers; ...

  3. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

  4. A View on Future Building System Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetter, Michael

    2011-04-01

    This chapter presents what a future environment for building system modeling and simulation may look like. As buildings continue to require increased performance and better comfort, their energy and control systems are becoming more integrated and complex. We therefore focus in this chapter on the modeling, simulation and analysis of building energy and control systems. Such systems can be classified as heterogeneous systems because they involve multiple domains, such as thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, electrical systems, control systems and communication systems. Also, they typically involve multiple temporal and spatial scales, and their evolution can be described by coupled differential equations, discrete equations and events. Modeling and simulating such systems requires a higher level of abstraction and modularisation to manage the increased complexity compared to what is used in today's building simulation programs. Therefore, the trend towards more integrated building systems is likely to be a driving force for changing the status quo of today's building simulation programs. Thischapter discusses evolving modeling requirements and outlines a path toward a future environment for modeling and simulation of heterogeneous building systems.A range of topics that would require many additional pages of discussion has been omitted. Examples include computational fluid dynamics for air and particle flow in and around buildings, people movement, daylight simulation, uncertainty propagation and optimisation methods for building design and controls. For different discussions and perspectives on the future of building modeling and simulation, we refer to Sahlin (2000), Augenbroe (2001) and Malkawi and Augenbroe (2004).

  5. The effects of residential real-time pricing contracts on transco loads, pricing, and profitability: Simulations using the N-ABLE trademark agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehlen, Mark A.; Scholand, Andrew J.; Stamber, Kevin L.

    2007-01-01

    An agent-based model is constructed in which a demand aggregator sells both uniform-price and real-time price (RTP) contracts to households as means for adding price elasticity in residential power use sectors, particularly during peak-price hours of the day. Simulations suggest that RTP contracts help a demand aggregator (1) shift its long-term contracts toward off-peak hours, thereby reducing its cost of power and (2) increase its short-run profits if it is one of the first aggregators to have large numbers of RTP contracts; but (3) create susceptibilities to short-term market demand and price volatilities. (author)

  6. A Bayesian kriging model for estimating residential exposure to air pollution of children living in a high-risk area in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A core challenge in epidemiological analysis of the impact of exposure to air pollution on health is assessment of the individual exposure for subjects at risk. Geographical information systems (GIS-based pollution mapping, such as kriging, has become one of the main tools for evaluating individual exposure to ambient pollutants. We applied universal Bayesian kriging to estimate the residential exposure to gaseous air pollutants for children living in a high-risk area (Milazzo- Valle del Mela in Sicily, Italy. Ad hoc air quality monitoring campaigns were carried out: 12 weekly measurements for sulphur dioxide (SO2 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 were obtained from 21 passive dosimeters located at each school yard of the study area from November 2007 to April 2008. Universal Bayesian kriging was performed to predict individual exposure levels at each residential address for all 6- to 12-years-old children attending primary school at various locations in the study area. Land use, altitude, distance to main roads and population density were included as covariates in the models. A large geographical heterogeneity in air quality was recorded suggesting complex exposure patterns. We obtained a predicted mean level of 25.78 (±10.61 μg/m3 of NO2 and 4.10 (±2.71 μg/m3 of SO2 at 1,682 children’s residential addresses, with a normalised root mean squared error of 28% and 25%, respectively. We conclude that universal Bayesian kriging approach is a useful tool for the assessment of realistic exposure estimates with regard to ambient pollutants at home addresses. Its prediction uncertainty is highly informative and can be used for both designing subsequent campaigns and for improved modelling of epidemiological associations.

  7. Residential Energy Performance Metrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Wright

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Techniques for residential energy monitoring are an emerging field that is currently drawing significant attention. This paper is a description of the current efforts to monitor and compare the performance of three solar powered homes built at Missouri University of Science and Technology. The homes are outfitted with an array of sensors and a data logger system to measure and record electricity production, system energy use, internal home temperature and humidity, hot water production, and exterior ambient conditions the houses are experiencing. Data is being collected to measure the performance of the houses, compare to energy modeling programs, design and develop cost effective sensor systems for energy monitoring, and produce a cost effective home control system.

  8. Experimental characterization, modeling and simulation of a wood pellet micro-combined heat and power unit used as a heat source for a residential building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thiers, Stephane; Aoun, Bernard; Peuportier, Bruno [MINES ParisTech, CEP - Centre Energetique et Procedes, 60 Boulevard St Michel, 75272 Paris Cedex 06 (France)

    2010-06-15

    Cogeneration provides heat and power in a more efficient way than separate production. Micro-cogeneration (micro-CHP) is an emerging solution for the improvement of energy and environmental assessments of residential buildings. A wood pellet Stirling engine micro-CHP unit has been studied in order to characterize its annual performance when integrated to a building. First, through a test bench experiment, both transient and steady state behaviors of the micro-CHP unit have been characterized and modeled. Then a more complete model representing a hot water and heating system including the micro-CHP unit and a stratified storage tank has been carried out. This model has been coupled to a building model. A sensitivity analysis by simulation shows that the dimensioning of different elements of the system strongly influences its global energy performance. (author)

  9. The comparison of source contributions from residential coal and low-smoke fuels, using CMB modeling in South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engelbrech, J.P.; Swanepoel, L.; Chow, J.C.; Watson, J.G.; Egami, R.T. [Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV (USA)

    2002-04-01

    D-grade residential coal is being widely used for heating and cooking by most of the lower-income urban communities in South Africa. The adverse health effects resulting from exposure to residential coal combustion emissions have been a major public concern for many years. The Department of Minerals and Energy of South Africa conducted a macro-scale experiment in the township of Qalabotjha during the winter of 1997 to assess the technical and social benefits of combusting low-smoke fuels. This paper reports the PM{sub 2.5} and PM{sub 10} chemical mass-balance (CMB) source apportionment results from Qalabotjha during a 30-day sampling period, including a 10-day period when a large proportion of low-smoke fuels was burnt. Residential coal combustion was found to be the greatest source of air pollution, accounting for 62.1% of PM{sub 2.5} and 42.6% of PM{sub 10} at the three Qalabotjha sites. Biomass burning is also a major source, accounting for 13.8% of PM{sub 2.5} and 19.9% of PM{sub 10}. Fugitive dust is only significant in the coarse particle fraction, accounting for 11.3% of PM{sub 10}. Contributions from secondary ammonium sulfate are three-four times greater than from ammonium nitrate, accounting for 5-6% of PM mass. Minor contributions were found for power plant fly ash, motor vehicle exhaust, and agricultural lime. Average PM{sub 2.5} and PM{sub 10} mass decreased by 20 and 25%, respectively, from the D-grade coal combustion period (days 1-10) to the majority of the low-smoke fuel period (days 11-20). Relative source contribution estimates were similar among the three sampling periods for PM{sub 2.5}, and were quite different for PM{sub 10} during the second period when 14% higher residential coal combustion and 9% lower biomass burning source contributions were found.

  10. Critical analysis about solutions and models of solar shades in non-residential buildings from tropical regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castañon, J A B; Caldeira, L F D; Gervásio, M F; Brum, F M

    2012-01-01

    Whereas the non-residential buildings consume a significant percentage of the total energy produced by the city, is important that these buildings have for such consumption is reduced or consumed in a conscious way. To do so, using concepts of energy efficiency, this work is to explain passive strategies with the use of flexible solar shades that help to get a favorable outcome with respect to the performance of the building right in the initial stages of planning and design. Once initial gains can be obtained and the architecture constants that value at the same time provide better working conditions and indoor comfort.

  11. Nanotoxicity prediction using computational modelling - review and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Bhavna; Srivastava, Sumit

    2018-04-01

    Nanomaterials has stimulated various outlooks for future in a number of industries and scientific ventures. A number of applications such as cosmetics, medicines, and electronics are employing nanomaterials due to their various compelling properties. The unending growth of nanomaterials usage in our daily life has escalated the health and environmental risks. Early nanotoxicity recognition is a big challenge. Various researches are going on in the field of nanotoxicity, which comprised of several problems such as inadequacy of proper datasets, lack of appropriate rules and characterization of nanomaterials. Computational modelling would be beneficial asset for nanomaterials researchers because it can foresee the toxicity, rest on previous experimental data. In this study, we have reviewed sufficient work demonstrating a proper pathway to proceed with QSAR analysis of Nanomaterials for toxicity modelling. The paper aims at providing comprehensive insight of Nano QSAR, various theories, tools and approaches used, along with an outline for future research directions to work on.

  12. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    within a time frame of two hours and approx. 7% of the electricity demand can be moved within a time frame of 24 hours. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

  13. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  14. Modeling future power plant location patterns. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eagles, T.W.; Cohon, J.L.; ReVelle, C.

    1979-04-01

    The locations of future energy facilities must be specified to assess the potential environmental impact of those facilities. A computer model was developed to generate probable locations for the energy facilities needed to meet postulated future energy requirements. The model is designed to cover a very large geographical region. The regional demand for baseload electric generating capacity associated with a postulated demand growth rate over any desired time horizon is specified by the user as an input to the model. The model uses linear programming to select the most probable locations within the region, based on physical and political factors. The linear program is multi-objective, with four objective functions based on transmission, coal supply, population proximity, and water supply considerations. Minimizing each objective function leads to a distinct set of locations. The user can select the objective function or weighted combination of objective functions most appropriate to his interest. Users with disparate interests can use the model to see the locational changes which result from varying weighting of the objective functions. The model has been implemented in a six-state mid-Atlantic region. The year 2000 was chosen as the study year, and a test scenario postulating 2.25% growth in baseload generating capacity between 1977 and 2000 was chosen. The scenario stipulatedthat this capacity be 50% nuclear and 50% coal-fired. Initial utility reaction indicates the objective based on transmission costs is most important for such a large-scale analysis

  15. Dynamical reduction models: present status and future developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassi, Angelo [Dipartimento di Fisica Teorica, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Strada Costiera 11, 34014 Trieste (Italy); Mathematisches Institut der Ludwig-Maximilians Universitaet, Theresienstr. 39, 80333 Munich (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    We review the major achievements of the dynamical reduction program, showing why and how it provides a unified, consistent description of physical phenomena, from the microscopic quantum domain to the macroscopic classical one. We discuss the difficulties in generalizing the existing models in order to comprise also relativistic quantum field theories. We point out possible future lines of research, ranging from mathematical physics to phenomenology.

  16. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  17. Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, S

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

  18. Model of future officers' availability to the management physical training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olkhovy O.M.

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A purpose of work is creation of model of readiness of graduating student to implementation of official questions of guidance, organization and leadthrough of physical preparation in the process of military-professional activity. An analysis is conducted more than 40 sources and questionnaire questioning of a 21 expert. For introduction of model to the system of physical preparation of students the list of its basic constituents is certain: theoretical methodical readiness; functionally-physical readiness; organizationally-administrative readiness. It is certain that readiness of future officers to military-professional activity foresees determination of level of forming of motive capabilities, development of general physical qualities.

  19. 77 FR 28519 - Test Procedure Guidance for Room Air Conditioners, Residential Dishwashers, and Residential...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-15

    ... Guidance for Room Air Conditioners, Residential Dishwashers, and Residential Clothes Washers: Public... procedures for room air conditioners, residential dishwashers, and residential clothes washers. DATES: DOE...'s existing test procedures for residential room air conditioners, residential dishwashers, and...

  20. Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hua; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Yixuan; Hao, Yu; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Kan

    2017-03-01

    In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.

  1. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  2. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  3. Modeling electric load and water consumption impacts from an integrated thermal energy and rainwater storage system for residential buildings in Texas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upshaw, Charles R.; Rhodes, Joshua D.; Webber, Michael E.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Hydronic integrated rainwater thermal storage (ITHERST) system concept presented. • ITHERST system modeled to assess peak electric load shifting and water savings. • Case study shows 75% peak load reduction and 9% increase in energy consumption. • Potable rainwater collection could provide ∼50–90% of water used for case study. - Abstract: The United States’ built environment is a significant direct and indirect consumer of energy and water. In Texas, and other parts of the Southern and Western US, air conditioning loads, particularly from residential buildings, contribute significantly to the peak electricity load on the grid, straining transmission. In parallel, water resources in these regions are strained by growing populations and shrinking supplies. One potential method to address both of these issues is to develop integrated thermal energy and auxiliary water (e.g. rainwater, greywater, etc.) storage and management systems that reduce peak load and freshwater consumption. This analysis focuses on a proposed integrated thermal energy and rainwater storage (ITHERST) system that is incorporated into a residential air-source chiller/heat pump with hydronic distribution. This paper describes a step-wise hourly thermodynamic model of the thermal storage system to assess on-peak performance, and a daily volume-balance model of auxiliary water collection and consumption to assess water savings potential. While the model is generalized, this analysis uses a case study of a single family home in Austin, Texas to illustrate its capabilities. The results indicate this ITHERST system could reduce on-peak air conditioning electric power demand by over 75%, with increased overall electric energy consumption of approximately 7–9%, when optimally sized. Additionally, the modeled rainwater collection reduced municipal water consumption by approximately 53–89%, depending on the system size.

  4. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  5. Formulation of models for determination of the fuel gas demand and consumption in residential buildings; Formulacao de modelos para determinacao da demanda e consumo de gas combustivel em edificios residenciais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ilha, Marina Sangoi de Oliveira [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Civil. Dept. de Hidraulica e Saneamento; Goncalves, Orestes Marracini [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica. Dept. de Engenharia de Construcao Civil

    1996-07-01

    This work presents models for design flow rate and gas volume determination in residential buildings. First, an experimental investigation, applied on a sample of residential buildings at Sao Paulo, Brazil, is described, which essentially consisted in the filling of a form and measurement of gas volume at one minute interval during 10 days (mean). From this data, it was performed a regression analysis in order to explain design flow rate (demand) and gas volume values (consumption), based on different variables. Models proposed on this work are different from the current applied methodology due to their 'open' approach, that is, involved variables can be explicitly found in formulas. (author)

  6. The Job Demands–Resources model: Challenges for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evangelia Demerouti

    2011-05-01

    Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD–R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studies on the JD–R model were reviewed to enlighten the health and motivational processes suggested by the model. Main findings: Next to the confirmation of the two suggested processes of the JD–R model, the studies of the special issue showed that the model can be used to predict work-place bullying, incidences of upper respiratory track infection, work-based identity, and early retirement intentions. Moreover, whilst psychological safety climate could be considered as a hypothetical precursor of job demands and resources, compassion satisfaction moderated the health process of the model. Contribution/value-add: The findings of previous studies and the studies of the special issue were integrated in the JD–R model that can be used to predict well-being and performance at work. New avenues for future research were suggested. Practical/managerial implications: The JD–R model is a framework that can be used for organisations to improve employee health and motivation, whilst simultaneously improving various organisational outcomes.

  7. Modeling Residential Water Consumption in Amman: The Role of Intermittency, Storage, and Pricing for Piped and Tanker Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klassert

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces an archetypal combination of high water scarcity, with a per capita water availability of around 150 m3 per year significantly below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 m3, and strong population growth, especially due to the Syrian refugee crisis. A transition to more sustainable water consumption patterns will likely require Jordan’s water authorities to rely more strongly on water demand management in the future. We conduct a case study of the effects of pricing policies, using an agent-based model of household water consumption in Jordan’s capital Amman, in order to analyze the distribution of burdens imposed by demand-side policies across society. Amman’s households face highly intermittent piped water supply, leading them to supplement it with water from storage tanks and informal private tanker operators. Using a detailed data set of the distribution of supply durations across Amman, our model can derive the demand for additional tanker water. We find that integrating these different supply sources into our model causes demand-side policies to have strongly heterogeneous effects across districts and income groups. This highlights the importance of a disaggregated perspective on water policy impacts in order to identify and potentially mitigate excessive burdens.

  8. Imagining Future Forests: What Models Can Learn from Field Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Domec, J. C.; Laviner, M. A.; Fox, T. D.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; King, J.; Noormets, A.

    2014-12-01

    General circulation models predict that future forests in the U.S. Southeast will experience higher temperatures and more variable precipitation in the future, resulting in a moderate decrease in water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), though considerable uncertainty in and disagreement between projections remain. The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation Project (PINEMAP) represents an effort to understand the future of 20 million acres of planted pine forests managed by private landowners in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states. Decades of productivity research on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) has led to a widespread practice of mid-rotation fertilization of loblolly plantations, supplying additional nutrients as stands approach canopy closure. It remains an open question what the effects of fertilization of pine forests in this region will be in the face of periodic or persistent droughts, in terms of forest water use and its implications to other water uses downstream. Therefore, we will review key results from past ecophysiological research on the responses of loblolly pine to fertilization, elevated CO2 and water availability, as well as a recent PINEMAP field trial of fertilization and drought imposed through rainfall displacement over two growing seasons. Despite high rainfall in 2013 (1224 mm compared an average 1120 mm) and a lack of leaf area response, transpiration decreased in response to fertilization and through rainfall displacement. Treatment differences were greatest in the growing season of 2013, when transpiration was on average 13.6, 20.2 and 28.7% lower in the rainfall displacement, fertilization and combined treatment than the control (46 mm/month), respectively. We will conclude by reviewing the important lessons from this research for regional models of future forests in this region in terms of LAI, transpiration, growth and water use efficiency.

  9. Dynamic Pathloss Model for Future Mobile Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumar, Ambuj; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Prasad, Ramjee

    2016-01-01

    that are essentially static. Therefore, once the signal level drops beyond the predicted values due to any variance in the environmental conditions, very crowded areas may not be catered well enough by the deployed network that had been designed with the static path loss model. This paper proposes an approach......— Future mobile communication networks (MCNs) are expected to be more intelligent and proactive based on new capabilities that increase agility and performance. However, for any successful mobile network service, the dexterity in network deployment is a key factor. The efficiency of the network...... planning depends on how congruent the chosen path loss model and real propagation are. Various path loss models have been developed that predict the signal propagation in various morphological and climatic environments; however they consider only those physical parameters of the network environment...

  10. The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

    2016-01-28

    The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When

  11. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  12. The ELOCA fuel modelling code: past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, A.F.

    2005-01-01

    ELOCA is the Industry Standard Toolset (IST) computer code for modelling CANDU fuel under the transient coolant conditions typical of an accident scenario. Since its original inception in the early 1970's, the code has undergone continual development and improvement. The code now embodies much of the knowledge and experience of fuel behaviour gained by the Canadian nuclear industry over this period. ELOCA has proven to be a valuable tool for the safety analyst, and continues to be used extensively to support the licensing cases of CANDU reactors. This paper provides a brief and much simplified view of this development history, its current status, and plans for future development. (author)

  13. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  14. Consumer’s Attitude Towards Investments in Residential Energy-Efficient Appliances: How End-User Choices Contribute to Change Future Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldini, Mattia; Trivella, Alessio; Wente, Jordan William Halverson

    2017-01-01

    conventional and environmentally friendly alternatives when purchasing new household electric appliances. This study employs empirical data from a survey conducted by the Danish Energy Agency to model the decision criteria behind Danish consumer investment in energy-efficient labeled appliances. The analysis...... uses logistic regression over a set of socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral variables to predict purchase propensities. The findings are relevant for policy makers interested in targeting consumers in the appliance market, particularly for a relatively wealthy national context. The study...

  15. Computational brain models: Advances from system biology and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George E. Barreto

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Computational brain models focused on the interactions between neurons and astrocytes, modeled via metabolic reconstructions, are reviewed. The large source of experimental data provided by the -omics techniques and the advance/application of computational and data-management tools are being fundamental. For instance, in the understanding of the crosstalk between these cells, the key neuroprotective mechanisms mediated by astrocytes in specific metabolic scenarios (1 and the identification of biomarkers for neurodegenerative diseases (2,3. However, the modeling of these interactions demands a clear view of the metabolic and signaling pathways implicated, but most of them are controversial and are still under evaluation (4. Hence, to gain insight into the complexity of these interactions a current view of the main pathways implicated in the neuron-astrocyte communication processes have been made from recent experimental reports and reviews. Furthermore, target problems, limitations and main conclusions have been identified from metabolic models of the brain reported from 2010. Finally, key aspects to take into account into the development of a computational model of the brain and topics that could be approached from a systems biology perspective in future research are highlighted.

  16. Future of Plant Functional Types in Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, S. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iversen, C. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modelers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current, and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration, and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially belowground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water, and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology, and remote sensing will be

  17. Intermediate care: for better or worse? Process evaluation of an intermediate care model between a university hospital and a residential home

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janmaat Tonnie ACM

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intermediate care was developed in order to bridge acute, primary and social care, primarily for elderly persons with complex care needs. Such bridging initiatives are intended to reduce hospital stays and improve continuity of care. Although many models assume positive effects, it is often ambiguous what the benefits are and whether they can be transferred to other settings. This is due to the heterogeneity of intermediate care models and the variety of collaborating partners that set up such models. Quantitative evaluation captures only a limited series of generic structure, process and outcome parameters. More detailed information is needed to assess the dynamics of intermediate care delivery, and to find ways to improve the quality of care. Against this background, the functioning of a low intensity early discharge model of intermediate care set up in a residential home for patients released from an Amsterdam university hospital has been evaluated. The aim of this study was to produce knowledge for management to improve quality of care, and to provide more generalisable insights into the accumulated impact of such a model. Methods A process evaluation was carried out using quantitative and qualitative methods. Registration forms and patient questionnaires were used to quantify the patient population in the model. Statistical analysis encompassed T-tests and chi-squared test to assess significance. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 staff members representing all disciplines working with the model. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using both 'open' and 'framework' approaches. Results Despite high expectations, there were significant problems. A heterogeneous patient population, a relatively unqualified staff and cultural differences between both collaborating partners impeded implementation and had an impact on the functioning of the model. Conclusion We concluded that setting up a low intensity

  18. Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

    2016-11-01

    The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  20. Residential-commercial energy input estimation based on genetic algorithm (GA) approaches: an application of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozturk, H.K.; Canyurt, O.E.; Hepbasli, A.; Utlu, Z.

    2004-01-01

    The main objective of the present study is to develop the energy input estimation equations for the residential-commercial sector (RCS) in order to estimate the future projections based on genetic algorithm (GA) notion and to examine the effect of the design parameters on the energy input of the sector. For this purpose, the Turkish RCS is given as an example. The GA Energy Input Estimation Model (GAEIEM) is used to estimate Turkey's future residential-commercial energy input demand based on gross domestic product (GDP), population, import, export, house production, cement production and basic house appliances consumption figures. It may be concluded that the three various forms of models proposed here can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques to available estimation techniques. It is also expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable and productive planning for energy policies. (author)

  1. EnerFuture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

  2. Identifying Housing and Meteorological Conditions Influencing Residential Air Exchange Rates in the DEARS and RIOPA Studies: Development of Distributions for Human Exposure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appropriate prediction of residential air exchange rate (AER) is important for estimating human exposures in the residential microenvironment, as AER drives the infiltration of outdoor-generated air pollutants indoors. AER differences among homes may result from a number of fact...

  3. Residential neighbourhoods in Kathmandu: Key design guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijaya K. Shrestha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Residential neighbourhoods developed using various techniques in Kathmandu by both the public and private sectors have not only provided a poor urban setting and failed to address socio-cultural needs, but are also poor at building a community and creating links to the built environment, with the result that the planned areas lack a sense of place and the inhabitants lack a feeling of home. Although traditional neighbourhoods in the historic core area had many features of a good residential neighbourhood in the past, they are currently undergoing rapid destruction. The residents of these neighbourhoods have little awareness of these issues. The existing legal and institutional frameworks are inadequate and ineffective and cannot address these problems, and so the formulation of design guidelines, their strict implementation, and enhancement of socio-cultural events including social networking are recommended for future residential neighbourhood development.

  4. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  5. Cost-Reduction Roadmap for Residential Solar Photovoltaics (PV), 2017-2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Jeffrey J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ardani, Kristen B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fu, Ran [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-03

    The installed cost of solar photovoltaics (PV) has fallen rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue declining in the future. In this report, we focus on the potential for continued PV cost reductions in the residential market. From 2010 to 2017, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for residential PV declined from 52 cents per kilowatt-hour (cents/kWh) to 16 cents/kWh (Fu et al. 2017). The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) recently set new LCOE targets for 2030, including a target of 5 cents/kWh for residential PV. We present a roadmap for achieving the SETO 2030 residential PV target. Because the 2030 target likely will not be achieved under business-as-usual trends (NREL 2017), we examine two key market segments that demonstrate significant opportunities for cost savings and market growth: installing PV at the time of roof replacement and installing PV as part of the new home construction process. Within both market segments, we identify four key cost-reduction opportunities: market maturation, business model integration, product innovation, and economies of scale. To assess the potential impact of these cost reductions, we compare modeled residential PV system prices in 2030 to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) quarter one 2017 (Q1 2017) residential PV system price benchmark (Fu et al. 2017). We use a bottom-up accounting framework to model all component and project-development costs incurred when installing a PV system. The result is a granular accounting for 11 direct and indirect costs associated with installing a residential PV system in 2030. All four modeled pathways demonstrate significant installed-system price savings over the Q1 2017 benchmark, with the visionary pathways yielding the greatest price benefits. The largest modeled cost savings are in the supply chain, sales and marketing, overhead, and installation labor cost categories. When we translate these

  6. Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

    2013-10-01

    Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Modelling of gecko foot for future robot application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruddin, A.; Ong, N. R.; Aziz, M. H. A.; Alcain, J. B.; Haimi, W. M. W. N.; Sauli, Z.

    2017-09-01

    Every gecko has an approximately million microscale hairs called setae which made it easy for them to cling from different surfaces at any orientation with the aid of Van der Waals force as the primary mechanism used to adhere to any contact surfaces. In this paper, a strain simulation using Comsol Multiphysic Software was conducted on a 3D MEMS model of an actuated gecko foot with the aim of achieving optimal sticking with various polymetric materials for future robots application. Based on the stress and strain analyses done on the seven different polymers, it was found that polysilicon had the best result which was nearest to 0%, indicating the strongest elasticity among the others. PDMS on the hand, failed in the simulation due to its bulk-like nature. Thus, PDMS was not suitable to be used for further study on gecko foot robot.

  8. The Adaptation Fund: a model for the future?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala; Harmeling, Sven; Kaloga, Alpha Oumar

    2009-08-15

    With millions of the poor already facing the impacts of a changing climate, adaptation is a globally urgent – and costly – issue. The Adaptation Fund, created under the Kyoto Protocol, has unique features that could herald a new era of international cooperation on adaptation. Its governance structure, for instance, offers a fresh approach to fund management under the UN climate convention. The Fund's Board has also developed a constructive working atmosphere, and further progress is expected before the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen. But developing countries' demand for adaptation funding is huge: conservative estimates put it at US$50 billion a year. The Fund's current structure and funding base are clearly only a first step towards filling that gap. And despite its significant progress over the last 18 months, many countries, particularly in the developed world, remain sceptical about this approach. Looking in detail at the Fund's evolution offers insight into its future potential as a model for adaptation finance.

  9. Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro

  10. Inter-relationships between objective and subjective measures of the residential environment among urban African American women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sealy-Jefferson, Shawnita; Messer, Lynne; Slaughter-Acey, Jaime; Misra, Dawn P

    2017-03-01

    The inter-relationships between objective (census based) and subjective (resident reported) measures of the residential environment is understudied in African American (AA) populations. Using data from the Life Influences on Fetal Environments Study (2009-2011; n = 1387) of AA women, we quantified the area-level variation in subjective reports of residential healthy food availability, walkability, safety, and disorder that can be accounted for with an objective neighborhood disadvantage index (NDI). Two-level generalized linear models estimated associations between objective and subjective measures of the residential environment, accounting for individual-level covariates. In unconditional models, intraclass correlation coefficients for block-group variance in subjective reports ranged from 11% (healthy food availability) to 30% (safety). Models accounting for the NDI (vs. both NDI and individual-level covariates) accounted for more variance in healthy food availability (23% vs. 8%) and social disorder (40% vs. 38%). The NDI and individual-level variables accounted for 39% and 51% of the area-level variation in walkability and safety, respectively. Associations between subjective and objective measures of the residential environment were significant and in the expected direction. Future studies on neighborhood effects on health, especially among AAs, should include a wide range of residential environment measures, including subjective, objective, and spatial contextual variables. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling of Future Initial Teacher of Foreign Language Training, Using Situation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryana М. Sidun

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discloses the content of modeling of future initial teacher of foreign language, using situation analysis, defines the stages of modeling during the professional competence formation of future teacher of foreign language: preparatory, analytical and executive.

  12. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Francis Gomes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA. Qualitative analysis provides deeper understanding of the phenomenon through the layers of CLA; litany, social causes, worldview and myth. Findings: It is di cult to predict the far future for a technology oriented sector like healthcare. This paper presents three scenarios for short-, medium- and long-term future. Based on these scenarios we also present a set of business model elements for different future time frames. This paper shows a way to combine business models with CLA, a foresight methodology; in order to apply business models in futures business research. Besides offering early results for futures business research, this study proposes a conceptual space to work with individual business models for managerial stakeholders. Originality / Value: Much research on business models has offered conceptualization of the phenomenon, innovation through business model and transformation of business models. However, existing literature does not o er much on using business model as a futures research tool. Enabled by futures thinking, we collected key business model elements and building blocks for the futures market and ana- lyzed them through the CLA framework.

  13. Residential Electricity Consumption in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Ropuszyńska-Surma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key factors influencing electricity consumption in the residential sector in Poland have been identified. A fixed-effects model was used, which includes time effects, and a set of covariates, based on the model developed by Houthakker et al. This model estimates electricity demand by using lagged values of the dependent variable along with current and lagged values of electricity prices, and other variables that affect electricity demand such as: population, economic growth, income per capita, price of related goods, etc. The model has been identified according to the research results of the authors and those obtained by Bentzen and Engsted. The set of covariates was extended to the lagged electricity price given by a tariff (taken from two years previous to the time of interest and heating degree days index, a very important factor in European Union countries, where the climate is temperate. The authors propose four models of residential electricity demand, for which a confidence interval of 95% has been assumed. Estimation was based on Polish quarterly data for the years 2003-2013. (original abstract

  14. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

  15. Residential damage in an area of underground coal mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padgett, M.F.

    1988-01-01

    In order to estimate the potential for future subsidence-related residential damage, a statistical analysis of past residential damage in the Boulder-Weld, Colorado, coal field was performed. The objectives of this study were to assess the difference in damage severity and frequency between undermined and non-undermined areas, and to determine, where applicable, which mining factors significantly influence the severity and frequency of residential damage. The results of this study suggest that undermined homes have almost three times the risk of having some type of structural damage than do non-undermined homes. The study also indicated that both geologic factors, such as the ratio of sandstone/claystone in the overburden, and mining factors, such as the mining feature (room, pillar, entry, etc.), can significantly affect the severity of overlying residential damage. However, the results of this study are dependent on local conditions and should not be applied elsewhere unless the geologic, mining, and residential conditions are similar

  16. Views on the future of thermal hydraulic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishii, M. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

    1997-07-01

    It is essential for the U.S. NRC to sustain the highest level of the thermal-hydraulics and reactor safety research expertise and continuously improve their accident analysis capability. Such expertise should span over four different areas which are strongly related to each other. These are: (1) Reactor Safety Code Development, (2) Two-phase Flow Modeling, (3) Instrumentation and Fundamental Experimental Research, and (4) Separate Effect and Integral Test. The NRC is already considering a new effort in the area of advanced thermal-hydraulics effort. Its success largely depends on the availability of a significantly improved two-phase flow formulation and constitutive relations supported by detailed experimental data. Therefore, it is recommended that the NRC start significant research efforts in the areas of two-phase flow modeling, instrumentation, basic and separate effect experiments which should be pursued systematically and with clearly defined objectives. It is desirable that some international program is developed in this area. This paper is concentrated on those items in the thermal-hydraulic area which eventually determine the quality of future accident analysis codes.

  17. Views on the future of thermal hydraulic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, M.

    1997-01-01

    It is essential for the U.S. NRC to sustain the highest level of the thermal-hydraulics and reactor safety research expertise and continuously improve their accident analysis capability. Such expertise should span over four different areas which are strongly related to each other. These are: (1) Reactor Safety Code Development, (2) Two-phase Flow Modeling, (3) Instrumentation and Fundamental Experimental Research, and (4) Separate Effect and Integral Test. The NRC is already considering a new effort in the area of advanced thermal-hydraulics effort. Its success largely depends on the availability of a significantly improved two-phase flow formulation and constitutive relations supported by detailed experimental data. Therefore, it is recommended that the NRC start significant research efforts in the areas of two-phase flow modeling, instrumentation, basic and separate effect experiments which should be pursued systematically and with clearly defined objectives. It is desirable that some international program is developed in this area. This paper is concentrated on those items in the thermal-hydraulic area which eventually determine the quality of future accident analysis codes

  18. The Future of Clinical Pharmacy: Developing a Holistic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A. Shane

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This concept paper discusses the untapped promise of often overlooked humanistic skills to advance the practice of pharmacy. It highlights the seminal work that is, increasingly, integrated into medical and nursing education. The work of these educators and the growing empirical evidence that validates the importance of humanistic skills is raising questions for the future of pharmacy education and practice. To potentiate humanistic professional competencies, e.g., compassion, empathy, and emotional intelligence, how do we develop a more holistic model that integrates reflective and affective skills? There are many historical and current transitions in the profession and practice of pharmacy. If our education model is refocused with an emphasis on pharmacy’s therapeutic roots, the field has the opportunity to play a vital role in improving health outcomes and patient-centered care. Beyond the metrics of treatment effects, achieving greater patient-centeredness will require transformations that improve care processes and invest in patients’ experiences of the treatment and care they receive. Is layering on additional science sufficient to yield better health outcomes if we neglect the power of empathic interactions in the healing process?

  19. Modelling recent and future climatic suitability for fasciolosis in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana

    2015-03-19

    Fasciola hepatica is a parasitic worm responsible for fasciolosis in grazed ruminants in Europe. The free-living stages of this parasite are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture, as are the intermediate snail hosts the parasite depends on for its life-cycle. We used a climate-driven disease model in order to assess the impact of recent and potential future climate changes on the incidence of fasciolosis and to estimate the related uncertainties at the scale of the European landmass. The current climate appears to be highly suitable for fasciolosis throughout the European Union with the exception of some parts of the Mediterranean region. Simulated climatic suitability for fasciolosis significantly increased during the 2000s in central and northwestern Europe, which is consistent with an observed increased in ruminant infections. The simulation showed that recent trends are likely to continue in the future with the estimated pattern of climate change for northern Europe, possibly extending the season suitable for development of the parasite in the environment by up to four months. For southern Europe, the simulated burden of disease may be lower, but the projected climate change will increase the risk during the winter months, since the simulated changes in temperature and moisture support the development of the free-living and intra-molluscan stages between November and March. In the event of predicted climate change, F. hepatica will present a serious risk to the health, welfare and productivity of all ruminant livestock. Improved, bespoke control programmes, both at farm and region levels, will then become imperative if problems, such as resistance of the parasite associated with increased drug use, are to be mitigated.

  20. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  1. Life-cycle energy of residential buildings in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Yuan; Ries, Robert J.; Wang, Yaowu

    2013-01-01

    In the context of rapid urbanization and new construction in rural China, residential building energy consumption has the potential to increase with the expected increase in demand. A process-based hybrid life-cycle assessment model is used to quantify the life-cycle energy use for both urban and rural residential buildings in China and determine the energy use characteristics of each life cycle phase. An input–output model for the pre-use phases is based on 2007 Chinese economic benchmark data. A process-based life-cycle assessment model for estimating the operation and demolition phases uses historical energy-intensity data. Results show that operation energy in both urban and rural residential buildings is dominant and varies from 75% to 86% of life cycle energy respectively. Gaps in living standards as well as differences in building structure and materials result in a life-cycle energy intensity of urban residential buildings that is 20% higher than that of rural residential buildings. The life-cycle energy of urban residential buildings is most sensitive to the reduction of operational energy intensity excluding heating energy which depends on both the occupants' energy-saving behavior as well as the performance of the building itself. -- Highlights: •We developed a hybrid LCA model to quantify the life-cycle energy for urban and rural residential buildings in China. •Operation energy in urban and rural residential buildings is dominant, varying from 75% to 86% of life cycle energy respectively. •Compared with rural residential buildings, the life-cycle energy intensity of urban residential buildings is 20% higher. •The life-cycle energy of urban residential buildings is most sensitive to the reduction of daily activity energy

  2. Development and Application of an Integrated Model for Representing Hydrologic Processes and Irrigation at Residential Scale in Semiarid and Mediterranean Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, J. B.; Gironas, J. A.; Bonilla, C. A.; Vera, S.; Reyes, F. R.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization alters physical and biological processes that take place in natural environments. New impervious areas change the hydrological processes, reducing infiltration and evapotranspiration and increasing direct runoff volumes and flow discharges. To reduce these effects at local scale, sustainable urban drainage systems, low impact development and best management practices have been developed and implemented. These technologies, which typically consider some type of green infrastructure (GI), simulate natural processes of capture, retention and infiltration to control flow discharges from frequent events and preserve the hydrological cycle. Applying these techniques in semiarid regions requires accounting for aspects related to the maintenance of green areas, such as the irrigation needs and the selection of the vegetation. This study develops the Integrated Hydrological Model at Residential Scale, IHMORS, which is a continuous model that simulates the most relevant hydrological processes together with irrigation processes of green areas. In the model contributing areas and drainage control practices are modeled by combining and connecting differents subareas subjected to surface processes (i.e. interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration and surface runoff) and sub-surface processes (percolation, redistribution and subsurface runoff). The model simulates these processes and accounts for the dynamics of the water content in different soil layers. The different components of the model were first tested using laboratory and numerical experiments, and then an application to a case study was carried out. In this application we assess the long-term performance in terms of runoff control and irrigation needs of green gardens with different vegetation, under different climate and irrigation practices. The model identifies significant differences in the performance of the alternatives and provides a good insight for the maintenance needs of GI for runoff control.

  3. Potential energy savings by using direct current for residential applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diaz, Enrique Rodriguez; Quintero, Juan Carlos Vasquez; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    improvement in the power converter units. However, for residential applications, the efficiency is not always improved. A grid connected residential microgrid, with renewable energy sources (RES), energy storage systems (ESS) and local loads, is presented in this work. The microgrid has been modelled...

  4. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  5. Family ties and residential locations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, C.H.; Cooke, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, and in the Special Issue it introduces, the focus is on the role of family ties in residential location choice and, conversely, the role of residential locations in maintaining family ties. Not only do events in the nuclear family trigger residential relocations, but nearby family

  6. Diabetes care: model for the future of primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posey, L Michael; Tanzi, Maria G

    2010-01-01

    To review relevant trends threatening primary care and the evidence supporting use of nonphysicians in primary and chronic care of patients with diabetes. Current medical and pharmacy literature as selected by authors. The care needed by patients with diabetes does not fit well into our current medical model for primary care, and an adequate supply of physicians is not likely to be available for primary care roles in coming years. Patients with diabetes who are placed on evidence-based regimens, are educated about their disease, are coached in ways that motivate them to lose weight and adopt other therapeutic lifestyle changes, and are adhering to and persisting with therapy will soon have improved clinical parameters. These quickly translate into fewer hospitalizations and emergency department visits. A growing body of literature supports the use of pharmacists and other nonphysicians in meeting the needs of patients with diabetes. Pharmacists should join nurse practitioners, specially trained nurses, and physician assistants as integral members of the health care team in providing care to patients with diabetes and, by logical extension, other chronic conditions. Demand for primary care is likely to outstrip the available supply of generalist physicians in the coming years. In addition to nurse practitioners and physician assistants, pharmacists should be considered for key roles in future interdisciplinary teams that triage and provide direct care to patients, including those with diabetes and other chronic conditions.

  7. Modelling and Designing Cryogenic Hydrogen Tanks for Future Aircraft Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Winnefeld

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the near future, the challenges to reduce the economic and social dependency on fossil fuels must be faced increasingly. A sustainable and efficient energy supply based on renewable energies enables large-scale applications of electro-fuels for, e.g., the transport sector. The high gravimetric energy density makes liquefied hydrogen a reasonable candidate for energy storage in a light-weight application, such as aviation. Current aircraft structures are designed to accommodate jet fuel and gas turbines allowing a limited retrofitting only. New designs, such as the blended-wing-body, enable a more flexible integration of new storage technologies and energy converters, e.g., cryogenic hydrogen tanks and fuel cells. Against this background, a tank-design model is formulated, which considers geometrical, mechanical and thermal aspects, as well as specific mission profiles while considering a power supply by a fuel cell. This design approach enables the determination of required tank mass and storage density, respectively. A new evaluation value is defined including the vented hydrogen mass throughout the flight enabling more transparent insights on mass shares. Subsequently, a systematic approach in tank partitioning leads to associated compromises regarding the tank weight. The analysis shows that cryogenic hydrogen tanks are highly competitive with kerosene tanks in terms of overall mass, which is further improved by the use of a fuel cell.

  8. Fourth standard model family neutrino at future linear colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciftci, A.K.; Ciftci, R.; Sultansoy, S.

    2005-01-01

    It is known that flavor democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three-family fermions flavor democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac (ν 4 ) and Majorana (N 1 ) neutrinos at future linear colliders with √(s)=500 GeV, 1 TeV, and 3 TeV are considered. The cross section for the process e + e - →ν 4 ν 4 (N 1 N 1 ) and the branching ratios for possible decay modes of the both neutrinos are determined. The decays of the fourth family neutrinos into muon channels (ν 4 (N 1 )→μ ± W ± ) provide cleanest signature at e + e - colliders. Meanwhile, in our parametrization this channel is dominant. W bosons produced in decays of the fourth family neutrinos will be seen in detector as either di-jets or isolated leptons. As an example, we consider the production of 200 GeV mass fourth family neutrinos at √(s)=500 GeV linear colliders by taking into account di-muon plus four jet events as signatures

  9. GREEN RETROFITTING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS

    Science.gov (United States)

    When compared with the rest of the world, the United States consumes a disproportionately large amount of energy and is a major source of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion. As much as two thirds of U.S. electricity production is consumed by residential and commerci...

  10. Modeling the discontinuous individual channel injection into fin-and-tube evaporators for residential air-conditioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærn, Martin Ryhl; Elmegaard, Brian

    2012-01-01

    simulating the pulsating flow, thus the dynamic behavior in the mixture two-phase flow model is insufficient to model the discontinuous liquid injection principle. Despite, the fluctuations and imperfections of the model we found that the cycle time should be kept as low as possible and that the optional...

  11. Residential electricity demand in Singapore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.

    1992-01-01

    Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)

  12. Customer-economics of residential photovoltaic systems (Part 1): The impact of high renewable energy penetrations on electricity bill savings with net metering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darghouth, Naïm R.; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2014-01-01

    Residential photovoltaic (PV) systems in the US are often compensated at the customer's underlying retail electricity rate through net metering. Given the uncertainty in future retail rates and the inherent links between rates and the customer–economics of behind-the-meter PV, there is growing interest in understanding how potential changes in rates may impact the value of bill savings from PV. In this article, we first use a production cost and capacity expansion model to project California hourly wholesale electricity market prices under two potential electricity market scenarios, including a reference and a 33% renewables scenario. Second, based on the wholesale electricity market prices generated by the model, we develop retail rates (i.e., flat, time-of-use, and real-time pricing) for each future scenario based on standard retail rate design principles. Finally, based on these retail rates, the bill savings from PV is estimated for 226 California residential customers under two types of net metering, for each scenario. We find that high renewable penetrations can drive substantial changes in residential retail rates and that these changes, together with variations in retail rate structures and PV compensation mechanisms, interact to place substantial uncertainty on the future value of bill savings from residential PV. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of high renewables on customer economics of solar. • We model three types of residential retail electricity rates. • Based on the rates, we calculate the bill savings from photovoltaic (PV) generation. • High renewables penetration can lead to lower bill savings with time-varying rates. • There is substantial uncertainty in the future bill savings from residential PV

  13. Solar Photovoltaic Financing: Residential Sector Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, J.; Cory, K.

    2009-03-01

    This report presents the information that homeowners and policy makers need to facilitate PV financing at the residential level. The full range of cash payments, bill savings, and tax incentives is covered, as well as potentially available solar attribute payments. Traditional financing is also compared to innovative solutions, many of which are borrowed from the commercial sector. Together, these mechanisms are critical for making the economic case for a residential PV installation, given its high upfront costs. Unfortunately, these programs are presently limited to select locations around the country. By calling attention to these innovative initiatives, this report aims to help policy makers consider greater adoption of these models to benefit homeowners interested installing a residential PV system.

  14. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  15. Do Social Information-Processing Models Explain Aggressive Behaviour by Children with Mild Intellectual Disabilities in Residential Care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Nieuwenhuijzen, M.; de Castro, B. O.; van der Valk, I.; Wijnroks, L.; Vermeer, A.; Matthys, W.

    2006-01-01

    Background: This study aimed to examine whether the social information-processing model (SIP model) applies to aggressive behaviour by children with mild intellectual disabilities (MID). The response-decision element of SIP was expected to be unnecessary to explain aggressive behaviour in these children, and SIP was expected to mediate the…

  16. Hydrological processes at the urban residential scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Q. Xiao; E.G. McPherson; J.R. Simpson; S.L. Ustin

    2007-01-01

    In the face of increasing urbanization, there is growing interest in application of microscale hydrologic solutions to minimize storm runoff and conserve water at the source. In this study, a physically based numerical model was developed to understand hydrologic processes better at the urban residential scale and the interaction of these processes among different...

  17. Confronting dark energy models mimicking ΛCDM epoch with observational constraints: Future cosmological perturbations decay or future Rip?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astashenok, Artyom V.; Odintsov, Sergei D.

    2013-01-01

    We confront dark energy models which are currently similar to ΛCDM theory with observational data which include the SNe data, matter density perturbations and baryon acoustic oscillations data. DE cosmology under consideration may evolve to Big Rip, type II or type III future singularity, or to Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. It is shown that matter perturbations data define more precisely the possible deviation from ΛCDM model than consideration of SNe data only. The combined data analysis proves that DE models under consideration are as consistent as ΛCDM model. We demonstrate that growth of matter density perturbations may occur at sufficiently small background density but still before the possible disintegration of bound objects (like clusters of galaxies, galaxies, etc.) in Big Rip, type III singularity, Little Rip or Pseudo-Rip universe. This new effect may bring the future universe to chaotic state well before disintegration or Rip.

  18. Spatio-temporal modelling of residential exposure to particulate matter and gaseous pollutants for the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemacher, Michael; Jakobs, Hermann; Viehmann, Anja; Vanberg, Irene; Kessler, Christoph; Moebus, Susanne; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Erbel, Raimund; Hoffmann, Barbara; Memmesheimer, Michael

    2014-07-01

    For the simultaneous analysis of short- and long-term effects of air pollution in the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Cohort a sophisticated exposure modelling was performed. The dispersion and chemistry transport model EURAD (European Air Pollution Dispersion) was used for the estimation of hourly concentrations of a number of pollutants for a horizontal grid with a cell size of 1 km² covering the whole study area (three large adjacent cities in a highly urbanized region in Western Germany) for the years 2000-2003 and 2006-2008. For each 1 km² cell we estimated the mean concentration by calculating daily means from the hourly concentrations modelled by the EURAD process. The modelled concentrations showed an overall tendency to decrease from 2001 to 2008 whereas the trend in the single grid cells and study period was inhomogeneous. Participant-related exposure slightly increased from 2001 to 2003 followed by a decrease from 2006 to 2008. The exposure modelling enables a very flexible exposure assessment compared to conventional modelling approaches which either use central monitoring or temporally static spatial contrasts. The modelling allows the calculation of an average exposure concentration for any place and time within the study region and study period with a high spatial and temporal resolution. This is important for the assessment of short-, medium and long-term effects of air pollution on human health in epidemiological studies.

  19. A methodology for modelling energy-related human behaviour: Application to window opening behaviour in residential buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabi, Valentina; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Corgnati, Stefano P.

    2013-01-01

    that affect the results accuracy. Above all, the real energy performance can be affected by the actual behaviour of the building occupants. Thus, there are great benefits to be derived from improving models that simulate the behaviour of human beings within the context of engineered complex systems...... for modelling the human behaviour related to the control of indoor environment. The procedure is applied at models of occupants’ interactions with windows (opening and closing behaviour). Models of occupants’ window opening behaviour were inferred based on measurements and implemented in a simulation program......An energy simulation of a building is a mathematical representation of its physical behaviour considering all the thermal, lighting, acoustics aspects. However, a simulation cannot precisely replicate a real construction because all the simulations are based on a number of key assumptions...

  20. Indicators of residential traffic exposure: Modelled NOX, traffic proximity, and self-reported exposure in RHINE III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Bäck, Erik; Eneroth, Kristina; Gislason, Thorarinn; Holm, Mathias; Janson, Christer; Jensen, Steen Solvang; Johannessen, Ane; Kaasik, Marko; Modig, Lars; Segersson, David; Sigsgaard, Torben; Forsberg, Bertil; Olsson, David; Orru, Hans

    2017-10-01

    Few studies have investigated associations between self-reported and modelled exposure to traffic pollution. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between self-reported traffic exposure and modelled (a) NOX and (b) traffic proximity in seven different northern European cities; Aarhus (Denmark), Bergen (Norway), Gothenburg, Umeå, and Uppsala (Sweden), Reykjavik (Iceland), and Tartu (Estonia). We analysed data from the RHINE III (Respiratory Health in Northern Europe, http://www.rhine.nu)

  1. Simulating residential demand response: Improving socio-technical assumptions in activity-based models of energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    McKenna, E.; Higginson, S.; Grunewald, P.; Darby, S. J.

    2017-01-01

    Demand response is receiving increasing interest as a new form of flexibility within low-carbon power systems. Energy models are an important tool to assess the potential capability of demand side contributions. This paper critically reviews the assumptions in current models and introduces a new conceptual framework to better facilitate such an assessment. We propose three dimensions along which change could occur, namely technology, activities and service expectations. Using this framework, ...

  2. Improved modelling of thermal energy savings potential in the existing residential stock using a newly available data source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dineen, D.; Rogan, F.; Ó Gallachóir, B.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a novel bottom up approach to modelling the energy savings potential of energy efficiency improvement measures to be applied through retrofit of the existing dwelling stock. It takes advantage of a newly available, rich dataset on the construction characteristics of the 2011 housing stock in Ireland. The methodological innovation centres on the use of wall construction type in the modelling and analysis. While Ireland is the focus, this approach is applicable to any EU member state for which data on dwelling characteristics exists from surveys carried as part of Energy Performance Certificate calculations. The model is calibrated to the national energy balance for 2011 by varying the internal temperature assumptions. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the effects of internal temperature and rebound. The paper also highlights some limitations posed by data availability on the accuracy and sophistication of models that can currently be developed, specifically in the Irish case. - Highlights: • Archetype model of energy savings potential from retrofit of existing dwelling stock. • Takes advantage of rich dataset on the construction characteristics of the Irish housing stock. • Innovative use of wall construction types in archetype definition possible due to improved data. • Results calibrated to top down estimate of heating demand by adjusting internal temperature. • Highlights limitations on the accuracy and sophistication of models posed by data availability.

  3. Guidelines for residential commissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wray, Craig P.; Walker, Iain S.; Sherman, Max H.

    2003-01-31

    Currently, houses do not perform optimally or even as many codes and forecasts predict, largely because they are field assembled and there is no consistent process to identify problems or to correct them. Residential commissioning is a solution to this problem. This guide is the culmination of a 30-month project that began in September 1999. The ultimate objective of the project is to increase the number of houses that undergo commissioning, which will improve the quality, comfort, and safety of homes for California citizens. The project goal is to lay the groundwork for a residential commissioning industry in California focused on end-use energy and non-energy issues. As such, we intend this guide to be a beginning and not an end. Our intent is that the guide will lead to the programmatic integration of commissioning with other building industry processes, which in turn will provide more value to a single site visit for people such as home energy auditors and raters, home inspectors, and building performance contractors. Project work to support the development of this guide includes: a literature review and annotated bibliography, which facilitates access to 469 documents related to residential commissioning published over the past 20 years (Wray et al. 2000), an analysis of the potential benefits one can realistically expect from commissioning new and existing California houses (Matson et al. 2002), and an assessment of 107 diagnostic tools for evaluating residential commissioning metrics (Wray et al. 2002). In this guide, we describe the issues that non-experts should consider in developing a commissioning program to achieve the benefits we have identified. We do this by providing specific recommendations about: how to structure the commissioning process, which diagnostics to use, and how to use them to commission new and existing houses. Using examples, we also demonstrate the potential benefits of applying the recommended whole-house commissioning approach to

  4. Optimal tree design for daylighting in residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hongbing, Wang [College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, 35, East Qinghua Rd., Beijing (China); Shanghai Botanical Garden, 1111, Longwu Rd., Shanghai (China); Jun, Qin; Yonghong, Hu [Shanghai Botanical Garden, 1111, Longwu Rd., Shanghai (China); Li, Dong [College of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, 35, East Qinghua Rd., Beijing (China)

    2010-12-15

    Urban reforestation is advocated as an efficient countermeasure to the intensification of urban heat islands. The greening and beautification of residential quarters is one of the main concerns of residents, while lighting and ventilation are two main energy-consuming building services. Hence, the tree layout in green space between buildings is important, and it is necessary to determine the relationships between trees and buildings. This study takes Shanghai as a case study to optimize tree design between residential buildings and meet good daylighting requirements. Models were made using software such as AutoCAD and SketchUp. The relationships between maximum tree height and building separation were determined. For the same building layout, there were different tree height limits according to crown shape; the order of decreasing height limits was cylindrical, conical, spherical, and inverted conical crowns. Three cases having different green space between building layouts were studied. Their maximum tree heights differed. Overall, our model helps us realize good daylighting of a building environment. The formula allows us to determine which trees to plant between buildings in that we can predict the effects of future tree growth on building daylighting. (author)

  5. An overview of particulate emissions from residential biomass combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicente, E. D.; Alves, C. A.

    2018-01-01

    Residential biomass burning has been pointed out as one of the largest sources of fine particles in the global troposphere with serious impacts on air quality, climate and human health. Quantitative estimations of the contribution of this source to the atmospheric particulate matter levels are hard to obtain, because emission factors vary greatly with wood type, combustion equipment and operating conditions. Updated information should improve not only regional and global biomass burning emission inventories, but also the input for atmospheric models. In this work, an extensive tabulation of particulate matter emission factors obtained worldwide is presented and critically evaluated. Existing quantifications and the suitability of specific organic markers to assign the input of residential biomass combustion to the ambient carbonaceous aerosol are also discussed. Based on these organic markers or other tracers, estimates of the contribution of this sector to observed particulate levels by receptor models for different regions around the world are compiled. Key areas requiring future research are highlighted and briefly discussed.

  6. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    pattern, giving one or more new cycles. To model an event made up of several cycles extending into the future calls for an estimate of the ultimate value, which corresponds with the area under the curve up to the end of the event. For oil, the best tool to determine an ultimate value is the creaming curve that plots cumulative discovery versus the cumulative number of new field wildcats, the result being modelled by one or more hyperbolas. Another method is to plot the ratio of annual to cumulative production versus cumulative production, and extrapolate the trend to zero. When the trend is linear, it represents the derivative of the logistic curve. The fractal distribution of sizes (field reserves, incomes, urban agglomerations plotted against decreasing rank) can also be extrapolated to an ultimate value. Population can be well modelled with two cycles, distinguishing countries with high and low fertility rates. Previous UN forecasts were too high for different reasons. Economic parameters, such as unemployment or inflation, can be correlated with oil price after a certain time-shift. Income distribution is well described by a fractal plot of population versus income. The income fractal distribution in France is in fact the same as that in the United States, although the total of the latter is higher because of a larger population. Many graphs are shown for each domain using the same tools. The goal is that the reader may be able to draw his own conclusions, and make his own forecast. Ironically, it appears that the modelling is more reliable than the input data. Accordingly, the main challenge is to secure better data, but that will be achieved only if and when political influences can be removed. A neutral agency is needed, but neither the UN nor national agencies are neutral. It is hard to see how to force the actors to tell the truth, or know who would run and finance such an organisation. A step in the right direction would be to make official organisations liable

  7. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    cycles. To model an event made up of several cycles extending into the future calls for an estimate of the ultimate value, which corresponds with the area under the curve up to the end of the event. For oil, the best tool to determine an ultimate value is the creaming curve that plots cumulative discovery versus the cumulative number of new field wildcats, the result being modelled by one or more hyperbolas. Another method is to plot the ratio of annual to cumulative production versus cumulative production, and extrapolate the trend to zero. When the trend is linear, it represents the derivative of the logistic curve. The fractal distribution of sizes (field reserves, incomes, urban agglomerations plotted against decreasing rank) can also be extrapolated to an ultimate value. Population can be well modelled with two cycles, distinguishing countries with high and low fertility rates. Previous UN forecasts were too high for different reasons. Economic parameters, such as unemployment or inflation, can be correlated with oil price after a certain time-shift. Income distribution is well described by a fractal plot of population versus income. The income fractal distribution in France is in fact the same as that in the United States, although the total of the latter is higher because of a larger population. Many graphs are shown for each domain using the same tools. The goal is that the reader may be able to draw his own conclusions, and make his own forecast. Ironically, it appears that the modelling is more reliable than the input data. Accordingly, the main challenge is to secure better data, but that will be achieved only if and when political influences can be removed. A neutral agency is needed, but neither the UN nor national agencies are neutral. It is hard to see how to force the actors to tell the truth, or know who would run and finance such an organisation. A step in the right direction would be to make official organisations liable to prosecution for releasing

  8. Children's residential exposure to chlorpyrifos: Application of CPPAES field measurements of chlorpyrifos and TCPy within MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hore, Paromita [Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University and the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (UMDNJ), Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, 170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08855 (United States)]|[New York City Department of Health, 253 Broadway New York, New York 10007 (United States); Zartarian, Valerie; Xue Jianping; Ozkaynak, Haluk [National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, 109 TW Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Wang, S.-W.; Yang, Y.-C.; Chu, P.-Ling; Robson, Mark; Georgopoulos, Panos [Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University and the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (UMDNJ), Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, 170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08855 (United States); Sheldon, Linda [National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, 109 TW Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Needham, Larry Barr, Dana [Contemporary Pesticide Laboratory, Centers for Disease Control, 4770 Buford Highway, Atlanta, GA 30341 (United States); Freeman, Natalie [Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University and the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (UMDNJ), Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, 170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08855 (United States)]|[University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Lioy, Paul J. [Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University and the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey (UMDNJ), Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, 170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08855 (United States)]. E-mail: plioy@eohsi.rutgers.edu

    2006-08-01

    The comprehensive individual field-measurements on non-dietary exposure collected in the Children's-Post-Pesticide-Application-Exposure-Study (CPPAES) were used within MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides, a physically based stochastic human exposure and dose model. In this application, however, the model was run deterministically. The MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides employed the CPPAES as input variables to simulate the exposure and the dose profiles for seven children over a 2-week post-application period following a routine residential and professional indoor crack-and-crevice chlorpyrifos application. The input variables were obtained from a personal activity diary, microenvironmental measurements and personal biomonitoring data obtained from CPPAES samples collected from the individual children and in their homes. Simulation results were compared with CPPAES field measured values obtained from the children's homes to assess the utility of the different microenvironmental data collected in CPPAES, i.e. indicator toys and wipe samplers to estimate aggregate exposures that can be result from one or more exposure pathways and routes. The final analyses of the database involved comparisons of the actual data obtained from the individual biomarker samples of a urinary metabolite of chlorpyrifos (TCPy) and the values predicted by MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides using the CPPAES-derived variables. Because duplicate diet samples were not part of the CPPAES study design, SHEDs-Pesticides simulated dose profiles did not account for the dietary route. The research provided more confidence in the types of data that can be used in the inhalation and dermal contact modules of MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides to predict the pesticide dose received by a child. It was determined that we still need additional understanding about: (1) the types of activities and durations of activities that result in non-dietary ingestion of pesticides and (2) the influence of dietary exposures on the levels of TCPy found

  9. CHILDREN'S RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE TO CHLORPYRIFOS: APPLICATION OF CPPAES FIELD MEASUREMENTS OF CHLORPYRIFOS AND TCPY WITHIN MENTOR/SHEDS PESTICIDES MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    The comprehensive individual field-measurements on non-dietary exposure collected in the Children's-Post-Pesticide-Application-Exposure-Study (CPPAES) were used within MENTOR/SHEDS-Pesticides, a physically based stochastic human exposure and dose model. In this application, howev...

  10. Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

    2011-01-01

    In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

  11. Discounting the future: influence of the economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, R R

    1996-06-01

    To consider the effect of the economic discount rate on health care policy and the rationale for discounting the collective future of society generally. A review of the concept of discounting the future vis à vis the present from the points of view of individuals (who pass on) and of societies (that continue) and reconsideration of the application of discounting to typical public health scenarios. A public health service, within a basically stable society, which can reasonably anticipate a nearly certain future. Discounting necessarily overvalues the "here and now" compared with the future. While applications of discount rates, typical of those employed in health economic studies in recent years, may seem rational in health care programmes directed at middle aged employed people, they do not for the young and the elderly, important recipients of health care. The consequences of discounting do not accord with the aims and objectives of public health. The "time preferences" of transient individuals within a stable society do not provide a rational basis for time preference of a stable society collectively. Discounting inevitably encourages "short termism" and hence biases public policy decision making. The neoclassical theory that gave rise to the concept of discounting requires revision.

  12. Bayesian importance parameter modeling of misaligned predictors: soil metal measures related to residential history and intellectual disability in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onicescu, Georgiana; Lawson, Andrew B; McDermott, Suzanne; Aelion, C Marjorie; Cai, Bo

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel spatial importance parameter hierarchical logistic regression modeling approach that includes measurement error from misalignment. We apply this model to study the relationship between the estimated concentration of soil metals at the residence of mothers and the development of intellectual disability (ID) in their children. The data consist of monthly computerized claims data about the prenatal experience of pregnant women living in nine areas within South Carolina and insured by Medicaid during January 1, 1996 and December 31, 2001 and the outcome of ID in their children during early childhood. We excluded mother-child pairs if the mother moved to an unknown location during pregnancy. We identified an association of the ID outcome with arsenic (As) and mercury (Hg) concentration in soil during pregnancy, controlling for infant sex, maternal race, mother's age, and gestational weeks at delivery. There is some indication that Hg has a slightly higher importance in the third and fourth months of pregnancy, while As has a more uniform effect over all the months with a suggestion of a slight increase in risk in later months.

  13. Spatial Variations of Values of Residential Land Use in Lagos ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    There exist literature on urban land use values and environmental planning. They are .... intra-urban location bid-rent model and the concept of residential land value ... emerges an ordinary pattern of land use, spatially organized to perform.

  14. Re-thinking residential mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ham, Maarten; Findlay, Allan M.

    2015-01-01

    While researchers are increasingly re-conceptualizing international migration, far less attention has been devoted to re-thinking short-distance residential mobility and immobility. In this paper we harness the life course approach to propose a new conceptual framework for residential mobility research. We contend that residential mobility and immobility should be re-conceptualized as relational practices that link lives through time and space while connecting people to structural conditions. Re-thinking and re-assessing residential mobility by exploiting new developments in longitudinal analysis will allow geographers to understand, critique and address pressing societal challenges. PMID:27330243

  15. Large-Scale Residential Demolition

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA provides resources for handling residential demolitions or renovations. This includes planning, handling harmful materials, recycling, funding, compliance assistance, good practices and regulations.

  16. Natural Gas Variability In California: Environmental Impacts And Device Performance Combustion Modeling of Pollutant Emissions From a Residential Cooking Range

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonse, S. R.; Singer, B. C.

    2011-07-01

    As part of a larger study of liquefied natural gas impacts on device performance and pollutant emissions for existing equipment in California, this report describes a cmoputer modeling study of a partially premixed flame issueing from a single cooktop burner port. The model consisted of a reactive computational fluid dynamics three-dimensional spatial grid and a 71-species chemical mechanism with propane combustion capability. Simulations were conducted with a simplified fuel mixture containing methane, ethane, and propane in proportions that yield properties similar to fuels distributed throughout much of California now and in recent years (baseline fuel), as well as with two variations of simulated liquefied natural gas blends. A variety of simulations were conducted with baseline fuel to explore the effect of several key parameters on pollutant formation and other flame characteristics. Simulations started with fuel and air issuing through the burner port, igniting, and continuing until the flame was steady with time. Conditions at this point were analyzed to understand fuel, secondary air and reaction product flows, regions of pollutant formation, and exhaust concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and formaldehyde. A sensitivity study was conducted, varying the inflow parameters of this baseline gs about real-world operating conditions. Flame properties responded as expected from reactive flow theory. In the simulation, carbon monoxide levels were influenced more by the mixture's inflow velocity than by the gas-to-air ratio in the mixture issuing from the inflow port. Additional simulations were executed at two inflow conditions - high heat release and medium heat release - to examine the impact of replacing the baseline gas with two mixtures representative of liquefied natural gas. Flame properties and pollutant generation rates were very similar among the three fuel mixtures.

  17. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  18. A Cointegrated Regime-Switching Model Approach with Jumps Applied to Natural Gas Futures Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Leonhardt

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Energy commodities and their futures naturally show cointegrated price movements. However, there is empirical evidence that the prices of futures with different maturities might have, e.g., different jump behaviours in different market situations. Observing commodity futures over time, there is also evidence for different states of the underlying volatility of the futures. In this paper, we therefore allow for cointegration of the term structure within a multi-factor model, which includes seasonality, as well as joint and individual jumps in the price processes of futures with different maturities. The seasonality in this model is realized via a deterministic function, and the jumps are represented with thinned-out compound Poisson processes. The model also includes a regime-switching approach that is modelled through a Markov chain and extends the class of geometric models. We show how the model can be calibrated to empirical data and give some practical applications.

  19. Evaluation of Factors that Influence Residential Solar Panel Installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, April M. [ORNL; Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [ORNL; Kotikot, Susan M. [ORNL; Held, Elizabeth L. [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L. [ORNL

    2018-03-01

    Though rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are the fastest growing source of distributed generation, detailed information about where they are located and who their owners are is often known only to installers and utility companies. This lack of detailed information is a barrier to policy and financial assessment of solar energy generation and use. To bridge the described data gap, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) to create an automated approach for detecting and characterizing buildings with installed solar panels using high-resolution overhead imagery. Additionally, ORNL was tasked with using machine learning techniques to classify parcels on which solar panels were automatically detected in the Washington, DC, and Boston areas as commercial or residential, and then providing a list of recommended variables and modeling techniques that could be combined with these results to identify attributes that motivate the installation of residential solar panels. This technical report describes the methodology, results, and recommendations in greater detail, including lessons learned and future work.

  20. Methods of modeling TCO residential real estate in the life cycles of buildings as a promising energy efficiency management tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulakov Kirill

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Building and developing an affordable housing market is a huge challenge for Russia’s national economy. Today, the housing construction industry finds itself in a situation torn by a conflict caused by the simultaneous needs to minimize the housing construction costs in order to make housing more affordable for Russians and to increase the energy efficiency of the housing projects, which is associated with additional costs for developers. To find solutions to this contradictory situation, one needs new theoretical and practical approaches and economic tools. The global economic trend of managing goods and services on the basis of the value of goods and services over the life cycle is also manifested in the construction industry in Russia. The problem of forming a new economic thinking in the housing sector predetermines the perception of the value of housing not only as the price of purchased real estate, but as the equivalent of the total cost of ownership of real estate throughout its life cycle. This approach allows to compensate the initial rise in the cost of construction resulting from the introduction of energy-efficient technologies by savings in the operational phase of the life cycle of the property. In this regard, management of the total cost of real estate ownership based on energy modeling is of high research and practical relevance.

  1. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  2. Bioenergy crop models: Descriptions, data requirements and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, S. Surendran [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Kang, Shujiang [ORNL; Zhang, Xuesong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Miguez, Fernando [Iowa State University; Izaurralde, Dr. R. Cesar [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Dietze, Michael [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Lynd, L. [Dartmouth College; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Field studies that address the production of lignocellulosic biomass as a source of renewable energy provide critical data for the development of bioenergy crop models. A literature survey revealed that 14 models have been used for simulating bioenergy crops including herbaceous and woody bioenergy crops, and for crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) crops. These models simulate field-scale production of biomass for switchgrass (ALMANAC, EPIC, and Agro-BGC), miscanthus (MISCANFOR, MISCANMOD, and WIMOVAC), sugarcane (APSIM, AUSCANE, and CANEGRO), and poplar and willow (SECRETS and 3PG). Two models are adaptations of dynamic global vegetation models and simulate biomass yields of miscanthus and sugarcane at regional scales (Agro-IBIS and LPJmL). Although it lacks the complexity of other bioenergy crop models, the environmental productivity index (EPI) is the only model used to estimate biomass production of CAM (Agave and Opuntia) plants. Except for the EPI model, all models include representations of leaf area dynamics, phenology, radiation interception and utilization, biomass production, and partitioning of biomass to roots and shoots. A few models simulate soil water, nutrient, and carbon cycle dynamics, making them especially useful for assessing the environmental consequences (e.g., erosion and nutrient losses) associated with the large-scale deployment of bioenergy crops. The rapid increase in use of models for energy crop simulation is encouraging; however, detailed information on the influence of climate, soils, and crop management practices on biomass production is scarce. Thus considerable work remains regarding the parameterization and validation of process-based models for bioenergy crops; generation and distribution of high-quality field data for model development and validation; and implementation of an integrated framework for efficient, high-resolution simulations of biomass production for use in planning sustainable bioenergy systems.

  3. Youth residential situation in the transition to adulthood: The case of Serbia (an exploratory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milić Jelena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Research undertaken on housing and youth to date primarily focus on those at the very bottom of the social ladder. Nonetheless, a large percentage of youth population around the world is facing a crisis in terms of achieving residential autonomy. This paper attempts to illustrate the possibilities and obstacles that prevent youth from achieving residential independence in Serbia. The data collected in this exploratory study conducted in 2014, on a sample of 312 respondents, is used to analyze some of the most important structural factors (job market, education, financial situation and access to the housing market in order to assess both current situation and the possible prospects of the youth housing issue in the country. Serbia, as most Southern European countries, has a 'Mediterranean' model of transition to adulthood, which is characterized by great reliance on the family of origin. It has been observed by respondents to this study that the most represented living arrangement was living with parents and that even older cohorts (30 to 35 years old in most cases continued living with their family of origin to date. As our findings indicate, youth from the sample perceived this residential arrangement more as a consequence of poor financial situation and lack of cheap housing, rather than a desirable choice. It is difficult to predict if there will be significant improvements in the housing affordability or job market situation for youth, therefore the prospect of achieving residential independency for generations to come will remain tremendously challenging. Investigating existing and defining new strategies, in both the family and broader society contexts, is an important task for future research on accessibility of housing and youth residential situation advancement given the importance of this factor in the transition to adulthood.

  4. ASHRAE and residential ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, Max H.

    2003-10-01

    In the last quarter of a century, the western world has become increasingly aware of environmental threats to health and safety. During this period, people psychologically retreated away from outdoors hazards such as pesticides, smog, lead, oil spills, and dioxin to the seeming security of their homes. However, the indoor environment may not be healthier than the outdoor environment, as has become more apparent over the past few years with issues such as mold, formaldehyde, and sick-building syndrome. While the built human environment has changed substantially over the past 10,000 years, human biology has not; poor indoor air quality creates health risks and can be uncomfortable. The human race has found, over time, that it is essential to manage the indoor environments of their homes. ASHRAE has long been in the business of ventilation, but most of the focus of that effort has been in the area of commercial and institutional buildings. Residential ventilation was traditionally not a major concern because it was felt that, between operable windows and envelope leakage, people were getting enough outside air in their homes. In the quarter of a century since the first oil shock, houses have gotten much more energy efficient. At the same time, the kinds of materials and functions in houses changed in character in response to people's needs. People became more environmentally conscious and aware not only about the resources they were consuming but about the environment in which they lived. All of these factors contributed to an increasing level of public concern about residential indoor air quality and ventilation. Where once there was an easy feeling about the residential indoor environment, there is now a desire to define levels of acceptability and performance. Many institutions--both public and private--have interests in Indoor Air Quality (IAQ), but ASHRAE, as the professional society that has had ventilation as part of its mission for over 100 years, is the

  5. Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

  6. An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

  7. Land use regression modeling of intra-urban residential variability in multiple traffic-related air pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baxter Lisa K

    2008-05-01

    within urban neighborhoods, and were differently related to local traffic and meteorology. Our results indicate a need for multi-pollutant exposure modeling to disentangle causal agents in epidemiological studies, and further investigation of site-specific and meteorological modification of the traffic-concentration relationship in urban neighborhoods.

  8. Modeling the Association Between Home Care Service Use and Entry Into Residential Aged Care: A Cohort Study Using Routinely Collected Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgensen, Mikaela; Siette, Joyce; Georgiou, Andrew; Warland, Andrew; Westbrook, Johanna

    2018-02-01

    To examine home care service-related and person-based factors associated with time to entry into permanent residential aged care. Longitudinal cohort study using routinely collected client management data. A large aged care service provider in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. A total of 1116 people aged 60 years and older who commenced home care services for higher-level needs between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016. Survival analysis methods were used to examine service-related and person-based factors that were associated with time between first home care service and entry into permanent residential aged care. Predictors included service hours per week, combination of service types, demographics, needs, hospital leave, and change in care level. Cluster analysis was used to determine patterns of types of services used. By December 31, 2016, 21.1% of people using home care services had entered into permanent residential care (n = 235). After adjusting for significant factors such as age and care needs, each hour of service received per week was associated with a 6% lower risk of entry into residential care (hazard ratio = 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90-0.98). People who were predominant users of social support services, those with an identified carer, and those born in a non-main English-speaking country also remained in their own homes for longer. Greater volume of home care services was associated with significantly delayed entry into permanent residential care. This study provides much-needed evidence about service outcomes that could be used to inform older adults' care choices. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future: overview of session and proceeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. H. S. Chiew

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of this IAHS symposium and PIAHS proceeding on "hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future". The paper provides a brief review of research on this topic, presents approaches used to account for nonstationarity when extrapolating models to predict the future, and summarises the papers in this session and proceeding.

  10. A simple technique for obtaining future climate data inputs for natural resource models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Those conducting impact studies using natural resource models need to be able to quickly and easily obtain downscaled future climate data from multiple models, scenarios, and timescales for multiple locations. This paper describes a method of quickly obtaining future climate data over a wide range o...

  11. Improved model for the calculation of the energy demand for the energetic evaluation of non-residential buildings; Verbessertes Modell zur Berechnung des Energiebedarfs zur energetischen Bewertung von Nichtwohngebaeuden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kempf, Heike

    2011-06-29

    The German Industrial Norm DIN V 18599, which is related to the German Energieeinsparverordnung (EnEV), addresses the energetic evaluation of nonresidential buildings. With its more than 800 pages it is very voluminous and complex. Due to the complex subject of DIN V 18599, discrepancies causing considerable differences in the overall result are possible. A further weak point in the current procedure for energetic evaluation is the composition of individual zones within the considered buildings and the subsequent effort for acquisition and determination of values needed during computation. Before a non-residential building can be evaluated energetically, the building has to be divided into individual areas with identical boundary conditions (zoning). The process of zoning is an elementary step within the balancing according to DIN V 18599. It provides, beside the determination of geometrical data, the basis for further computations. Thus, the energetic evaluation of non-residential buildings is based on the so-called Multiple-Zone-Model as described in DIN V 18599. Zoning, especially the gathering of data connected to it, is a very time-consuming task, because the building areas and volumes have to be determined for each zone individually. Nevertheless, zoning is mandatory because of the often completely different net energies to be provided. In order to reduce this effort, a Single-Zone-Model was added to the Energieeinsparverordnung, which may be used under certain preconditions. However, in comparison to the Multi-Zone-Model, differences in the evaluation results are possible. The elimination of weak points, that is to say the difference in time and result, is reached by the computation of the annual primary energy demand on the basis of an Improved-Single-Zone-Model. The Improved-Single-Zone-Model works with improved use values and includes computations of the Single-Zone-Model as well as the Multiple-Zone-Model. The advantage of the Improved-Single-Zone-Model

  12. Envisioning the future of collaborative model-driven software engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Di Ruscio, Davide; Franzago, Mirco; Malavolta, Ivano; Muccini, Henry

    2017-01-01

    The adoption of Model-driven Software Engineering (MDSE) to develop complex software systems in application domains like automotive and aerospace is being supported by the maturation of model-driven platforms and tools. However, empirical studies show that a wider adoption of MDSE technologies is

  13. Computerized models : tools for assessing the future of complex systems?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ittersum, van M.K.; Sterk, B.

    2015-01-01

    Models are commonly used to make decisions. At some point all of us will have employed a mental model, that is, a simplification of reality, in an everyday situation. For instance, when we want to make the best decision for the environment and consider whether to buy our vegetables in a large

  14. Mathematical modelling of anaerobic digestion processes: applications and future needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batstone, Damien J.; Puyol, Daniel; Flores Alsina, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    Anaerobic process modelling is a mature and well-established field, largely guided by a mechanistic model structure that is defined by our understanding of underlying processes. This led to publication of the IWA ADM1, and strong supporting, analytical, and extension research in the 15 years sinc...

  15. Modelling of radionuclide transport in forests: Review and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Schell, W.; Linkov, I.

    1997-01-01

    Ecological modeling is a powerful tool which can be used to synthesize information on the dynamic processes which occur in ecosystems. Models of radionuclide transport in forests were first constructed in the mid-1960's, when the consequences of global fallout from nuclear weapons tests and waste disposal in the environment were of great concern. Such models were developed based on site-specific experimental data and were designed to address local needs. These models had a limited applicability in evaluating distinct ecosystems and deposition scenarios. Given the scarcity of information, the same experimental data sets were often used both for model calibration and validation, an approach which clearly constitutes a methodological error. Even though the carry modeling attempts were far from being faultless, they established a useful conceptual approach in that they tried to capture general processes in ecosystems and thus had a holistic nature. Later, radioecological modeling attempted to reveal ecosystem properties by separating the component parts from the whole system, as an approach to simplification. This method worked well for radionuclide transport in agricultural ecosystems, in which the biogeochemistry of radionuclide cycling is relatively well understood and can be influenced by fertilization. Several models have been successfully developed and applied to human dose evaluation and emergency response to contaminating events in agricultural lands

  16. Towards modeling future energy infrastructures - the ELECTRA system engineering approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uslar, Mathias; Heussen, Kai

    2016-01-01

    of the IEC 62559 use case template as well as needed changes to cope particularly with the aspects of controller conflicts and Greenfield technology modeling. From the original envisioned use of the standards, we show a possible transfer on how to properly deal with a Greenfield approach when modeling....

  17. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Demerouti (Eva); A.B. Bakke (Arnold B.)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working

  18. The Job Demands-Resources model: challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demerouti, E.; Bakker, A.B.

    2011-01-01

    Motivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands–Resources (JD–R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD–R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and

  19. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanina Schmidt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument. Hence, different periods of this model are analyzed. In spite of proliferation of personality theories, Eysenck model has an empirical validity that only a few have. Thus, we argue that in Personality Psychology there is a background available which represents the Paradigm into which we will probably be moving in the next years

  20. Modelling Alzheimer’s disease: from past to future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia eSaraceno

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD is emerging as the most prevalent and socially disruptive illness of aging populations, as more people live long enough to become affected. Although AD is placing a considerable and increasing burden on society, it represents the largest unmet medical need in neurology, because current drugs improve symptoms, but do not have profound disease-modifying effects.Although AD pathogenesis is multifaceted and difficult to pinpoint, genetic and cell biological studies led to the amyloid hypothesis, which posits that Aβ plays a pivotal role in AD pathogenesis. Amyloid precursor protein (APP, as well as β- and γ-secretases are the principal players involved in Aβ production, while α-secretase cleavage on APP prevents Aβ deposition. The association of early onset familial AD with mutations in the APP and γ-secretase components provided a potential tool of generating animal models of the disease. However, a model that recapitulates all the aspects of AD has not yet been produced.Here, we face the problem of modelling AD pathology describing several models, which have played a major role in defining critical disease-related mechanisms and in exploring novel potential therapeutic approaches. In particular, we will provide an extensive overview on the distinct features and pros and contras of different AD models, ranging from invertebrate to rodent models and finally dealing with computational models and induced pluripotent stem cells.

  1. Numerical modelling of present and future hydrology at Laxemar- Simpevarp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten

    2011-04-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has performed site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. The modelling reported in this document is focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The main objective of the modelling was to provide input to the radionuclide transport and dose calculations that were carried out as a part of the comparison between the Laxemar and Forsmark sites

  2. Numerical modelling of present and future hydrology at Laxemar- Simpevarp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sassner, Mona; Sabel, Ulrika (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden)); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten (Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has performed site investigations at two potential sites for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. This report presents results of water flow modelling of the Laxemar area. The modelling reported in this document is focused on the near-surface groundwater, i.e. groundwater in Quaternary deposits and shallow rock, and surface water systems, and was performed using the MIKE SHE tool. The main objective of the modelling was to provide input to the radionuclide transport and dose calculations that were carried out as a part of the comparison between the Laxemar and Forsmark sites

  3. Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargreaves, Anthony; Cheng, Vicky; Deshmukh, Sandip; Leach, Matthew; Steemers, Koen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An innovative model for testing combinations of spatial planning and decentralised energy supply. • An improved method of modelling the spatial variability of energy consumption per dwelling type. • Shows how spatial planning would affect the future carbon reduction of decentralised supply. • Forecasts the future carbon reduction and costs of retrofitting and decentralised supply. • A method of forecasting how residential space would affect the suitability of decentralised supply. - Abstract: Low carbon energy supply technologies are increasingly used at the building and community scale and are an important part of the government decarbonisation strategy. However, with their present state of development and costs, many of these decentralised technologies rely on public subsidies to be financially viable. It is questionable whether they are cost effective compared to other ways of reducing carbon emissions, such as decarbonisation of conventional supply and improving the energy efficiency of dwellings. Previous studies have found it difficult to reliably estimate the future potential of decentralised supply because this depends on the available residential space which varies greatly within a city region. To address this problem, we used an integrated modelling framework that converted the residential density forecasts of a regional model into a representation of the building dimensions and land of the future housing stock. This included a method of estimating the variability of the dwellings and residential land. We present the findings of a case study of the wider south east regions of England that forecasted the impacts of energy efficiency and decentralised supply scenarios to year 2031. Our novel and innovative method substantially improves the spatial estimates of energy consumption compared to building energy models that only use standard dwelling typologies. We tested the impact of an alternative spatial planning policy on the future

  4. Modeling microcirculatory blood flow: current state and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gompper, Gerhard; Fedosov, Dmitry A

    2016-01-01

    Microvascular blood flow determines a number of important physiological processes of an organism in health and disease. Therefore, a detailed understanding of microvascular blood flow would significantly advance biophysical and biomedical research and its applications. Current developments in modeling of microcirculatory blood flow already allow to go beyond available experimental measurements and have a large potential to elucidate blood flow behavior in normal and diseased microvascular networks. There exist detailed models of blood flow on a single cell level as well as simplified models of the flow through microcirculatory networks, which are reviewed and discussed here. The combination of these models provides promising prospects for better understanding of blood flow behavior and transport properties locally as well as globally within large microvascular networks. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    OpenAIRE

    Demerouti, Eva; Bakke, Arnold B.

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studie...

  6. Residential energy demand in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arouca, M.; Gomes, F.M.; Rosa, L.P.

    1981-01-01

    The energy demand in Brazilian residential sector is studied, discussing the methodology for analyzing this demand from some ideas suggested, for developing an adequate method to brazilian characteristics. The residential energy consumption of several fuels in Brazil is also presented, including a comparative evaluation with the United States and France. (author)

  7. A drill-soil system modelization for future Mars exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finzi, A. E.; Lavagna, M.; Rocchitelli, G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a first approach to the problem of modeling a drilling process to be carried on in the space environment by a dedicated payload. Systems devoted to work in space present very strict requirements in many different fields such as thermal response, electric power demand, reliability and so on. Thus, models devoted to the operational behaviour simulation represent a fundamental help in the design phase and give a great improvement in the final product quality. As the required power is the crucial constraint within drilling devices, the tool-soil interaction modelization and simulation are finalized to the computation of the power demand as a function of both the drill and the soil parameters. An accurate study of the tool and the soil separately has been firstly carried on and, secondly their interaction has been analyzed. The Dee-Dri system, designed by Tecnospazio and to be part of the lander components in the NASA's Mars Sample Return Mission, has been taken as the tool reference. The Deep-Drill system is a complex rotary tool devoted to the soil perforation and sample collection; it has to operate in a Martian zone made of rocks similar to the terrestrial basalt, then the modelization is restricted to the interaction analysis between the tool and materials belonging to the rock set. The tool geometric modelization has been faced by a finite element approach with a Langrangian formulation: for the static analysis a refined model is assumed considering both the actual geometry of the head and the rod screws; a simplified model has been used to deal with the dynamic analysis. The soil representation is based on the Mohr-Coulomb crack criterion and an Eulerian approach has been selected to model it. However, software limitations in dealing with the tool-soil interface definition required assuming a Langrangian formulation for the soil too. The interaction between the soil and the tool has been modeled by extending the two-dimensional Nishimatsu

  8. Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

  9. Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Chapman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The resilience of cities in response to natural disasters and long-term climate change has emerged as a focus of academic and policy attention. In particular, how to understand the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems is a key issue. This paper introduces an urban model that can be used to evaluate city resilience outcomes under different policy scenarios. The model is the Wellington Integrated Land Use-Transport-Environment Model (WILUTE. It considers the city (i.e., Wellington as a complex system characterized by interactions between a variety of internal urban processes (social, economic and physical and the natural environment. It is focused on exploring the dynamic relations between human activities (the geographic distribution of housing and employment, infrastructure layout, traffic flows and energy consumption, environmental effects (carbon emissions, influences on local natural and ecological systems and potential natural disasters (e.g., inundation due to sea level rise and storm events faced under different policy scenarios. The model gives insights that are potentially useful for policy to enhance the city’s resilience, by modelling outcomes, such as the potential for reduction in transportation energy use, and changes in the vulnerability of the city’s housing stock and transport system to sea level rise.

  10. A new role-model for the future humanities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caviglia, Francesco; Pedersen, Alex Young

    The Knowledge Building approach (henceforth, KB) is a constructionist approach to learn-ing that builds on a Popperian epistemology and the idea of bringing to education “both the goals and the processes of knowledge-creating organizations – as represented, for instance, in scientific research...... of citizens” who work together to design solutions for living better together, which the authors suggest being an equally productive role-model as the idea of a “scientific research groups and industrial design teams”, which is the standard role-model for KB prac-tice. The authors sees this alternative model...... groups and industrial design teams” (Scardamalia & Bereiter, 2014). KB is becoming a signature pedagogy (Shulman, 2005) for scientific disciplines, with nearly all educational interventions quoted by Scardamalia & Bereiter (2014) or presented at con-ferences focusing on natural sciences. Although...

  11. Value of the distant future: Model-independent results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Yuri A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper shows that the model-independent account of correlations in an interest rate process or a log-consumption growth process leads to declining long-term tails of discount curves. Under the assumption of an exponentially decaying memory in fluctuations of risk-free real interest rates, I derive the analytical expression for an apt value of the long run discount factor and provide a detailed comparison of the obtained result with the outcome of the benchmark risk-free interest rate models. Utilizing the standard consumption-based model with an isoelastic power utility of the representative economic agent, I derive the non-Markovian generalization of the Ramsey discounting formula. Obtained analytical results allowing simple calibration, may augment the rigorous cost-benefit and regulatory impact analysis of long-term environmental and infrastructure projects.

  12. Bullying in Adolescent Residential Care: The Influence of the Physical and Social Residential Care Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekol, Ivana

    2016-01-01

    Background: To date, no study examined possible contributions of environmental factors to bullying and victimization in adolescent residential care facilities. Objective: By testing one part of the Multifactor Model of Bullying in Secure Setting (MMBSS; Ireland in "Int J Adolesc Med Health" 24(1):63-68, 2012), this research examined the…

  13. Model independent Z' constraints at future e+e- colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leike, A.

    1993-11-01

    Model independent constraints on the mass of extra neutral gauge bosons and their couplings to charged leptons are given for LEP II and a 500 GeV e + e - collider. Analytical exclusion limits are derived in the Born approximation. The Z' limits obtained with radiative corrections are always worse than those calculated at the Born level. Polarized beams are only useful for degrees of polarization essentially larger than 50%. Known discovery limits on extra Z bosons predicted by popular Z' models are reproduced as special cases. The Z' constraints are compared to those predicted by four fermion contact interactions. (orig.)

  14. Programs Model the Future of Air Traffic Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Through Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts with Ames Research Center, Intelligent Automation Inc., based in Rockville, Maryland, advanced specialized software the company had begun developing with U.S. Department of Defense funding. The agent-based infrastructure now allows NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System to explore ways of improving the utilization of the National Airspace System (NAS), providing flexible modeling of every part of the NAS down to individual planes, airports, control centers, and even weather. The software has been licensed to a number of aerospace and robotics customers, and has even been used to model the behavior of crowds.

  15. Model shows future cut in U.S. ozone levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    A joint U.S. auto-oil industry research program says modeling shows that changing gasoline composition can reduce ozone levels for Los Angeles in 2010 and for New York City and Dallas-Fort Worth in 2005. The air quality modeling was based on vehicle emissions research data released late last year (OGJ, Dec. 24, 1990, p. 20). The effort is sponsored by the big three auto manufacturers and 14 oil companies. Sponsors the cars and small trucks account for about one third of ozone generated in the three cities studied but by 2005-10 will account for only 5-9%

  16. Longitudinal comparative evaluation of the equivalence of an integrated peer-support and clinical staffing model for residential mental health rehabilitation: a mixed methods protocol incorporating multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Stephen; Dark, Frances; Newman, Ellie; Korman, Nicole; Meurk, Carla; Siskind, Dan; Harris, Meredith

    2016-06-02

    A novel staffing model integrating peer support workers and clinical staff within a unified team is being trialled at community based residential rehabilitation units in Australia. A mixed-methods protocol for the longitudinal evaluation of the outcomes, expectations and experiences of care by consumers and staff under this staffing model in two units will be compared to one unit operating a traditional clinical staffing. The study is unique with regards to the context, the longitudinal approach and consideration of multiple stakeholder perspectives. The longitudinal mixed methods design integrates a quantitative evaluation of the outcomes of care for consumers at three residential rehabilitation units with an applied qualitative research methodology. The quantitative component utilizes a prospective cohort design to explore whether equivalent outcomes are achieved through engagement at residential rehabilitation units operating integrated and clinical staffing models. Comparative data will be available from the time of admission, discharge and 12-month period post-discharge from the units. Additionally, retrospective data for the 12-month period prior to admission will be utilized to consider changes in functioning pre and post engagement with residential rehabilitation care. The primary outcome will be change in psychosocial functioning, assessed using the total score on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS). Planned secondary outcomes will include changes in symptomatology, disability, recovery orientation, carer quality of life, emergency department presentations, psychiatric inpatient bed days, and psychological distress and wellbeing. Planned analyses will include: cohort description; hierarchical linear regression modelling of the predictors of change in HoNOS following CCU care; and descriptive comparisons of the costs associated with the two staffing models. The qualitative component utilizes a pragmatic approach to grounded theory, with

  17. Residential hospice environments: evidence-based architectural and landscape design considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verderber, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The residential hospice care movement is increasingly accepted and supported globally, and yet, unfortunately, the amount of literature on best practices in the planning and design of residential hospice facilities and adjacent outdoor spaces remains relatively small. This paper reports on a compendium of architectural and landscape design considerations that reflect the fundamental dimensions of the residential hospice experience: site and context, arrival spaces, communal and private spaces of the residential milieu, transitional spaces, and nature connectivity. Additionally, key staffing and administrative ramifications of this built-environment compendium are addressed, as are prognostications and challenges for the future.

  18. Dental Hygiene Curriculum Model for Transition to Future Roles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paarmann, Carlene S.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The establishment of the baccalaureate degree as the minimum entry level for dental hygiene practice centers around three main concerns: changes in health care delivery, awarding of a degree commensurate with students' educational background, and the credibility of dental hygiene as a profession. A curriculum model is discussed. (MLW)

  19. Developing a planning model to estimate future cash flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barenbaum, L; Monahan, T F

    1988-03-01

    Financial managers are discovering that net income and other traditional measures of cash flow may not provide them with the flexibility needed for comprehensive internal planning and control. By using a discretionary cash flow model, financial managers have a forecasting tool that can help them measure anticipated cash flows, and make better decisions concerning financing alternatives, capital expansion, and performance appraisal.

  20. Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

  1. Causal models in epidemiology: past inheritance and genetic future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriebel David

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The eruption of genetic research presents a tremendous opportunity to epidemiologists to improve our ability to identify causes of ill health. Epidemiologists have enthusiastically embraced the new tools of genomics and proteomics to investigate gene-environment interactions. We argue that neither the full import nor limitations of such studies can be appreciated without clarifying underlying theoretical models of interaction, etiologic fraction, and the fundamental concept of causality. We therefore explore different models of causality in the epidemiology of disease arising out of genes, environments, and the interplay between environments and genes. We begin from Rothman's "pie" model of necessary and sufficient causes, and then discuss newer approaches, which provide additional insights into multifactorial causal processes. These include directed acyclic graphs and structural equation models. Caution is urged in the application of two essential and closely related concepts found in many studies: interaction (effect modification and the etiologic or attributable fraction. We review these concepts and present four important limitations. 1. Interaction is a fundamental characteristic of any causal process involving a series of probabilistic steps, and not a second-order phenomenon identified after first accounting for "main effects". 2. Standard methods of assessing interaction do not adequately consider the life course, and the temporal dynamics through which an individual's sufficient cause is completed. Different individuals may be at different stages of development along the path to disease, but this is not usually measurable. Thus, for example, acquired susceptibility in children can be an important source of variation. 3. A distinction must be made between individual-based and population-level models. Most epidemiologic discussions of causality fail to make this distinction. 4. At the population level, there is additional

  2. How can accelerated development of bioenergy contribute to the future UK energy mix? Insights from a MARKAL modelling exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anandarajah Gabrial

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1 lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2 gasification technologies for heat and power, (3 fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4 biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5 the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED. The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector. Results Bioenergy was deployed in larger quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with the LC-Core scenario. In the electricity sector, solid biomass was highly utilised for energy crop gasification, displacing some deployment of wind power, and nuclear and marine to a lesser extent. Solid biomass was also deployed for heat in the residential sector from 2040 in much higher quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with LC-Core. Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy

  3. Nuclear model developments in FLUKA for present and future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerutti, Francesco; Empl, Anton; Fedynitch, Anatoli; Ferrari, Alfredo; Ruben, GarciaAlia; Sala, Paola R.; Smirnov, George; Vlachoudis, Vasilis

    2017-09-01

    The FLUKAS code [1-3] is used in research laboratories all around the world for challenging applications spanning a very wide range of energies, projectiles and targets. FLUKAS is also extensively used for in hadrontherapy research studies and clinical planning systems. In this paper some of the recent developments in the FLUKAS nuclear physics models of relevance for very different application fields including medical physics are presented. A few examples are shown demonstrating the effectiveness of the upgraded code.

  4. PERMEABILITY MAP OF RESIDENTIAL SETTLEMENTS IN THE TROPICS

    OpenAIRE

    I Gusti Ngurah Antaryama

    2002-01-01

    Source of information for ventilation design of residential settlement is generally derived from wind tunnel or, recently, CFD studies, which involves both modeling and simulation of wind flow pattern and speed. Yet this is not readily accessible to most architects. In order to gain similar objectives but without involving detailed studies, the present study introduces a graphical method of gathering information about permeability of residential. It describes how the way wind reaches and flow...

  5. Estimating the Determinants of Residential Water Demand in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Giulia Romano; Nicola Salvati; Andrea Guerrini

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the determinants of residential water demand for chief towns of every Italian province, in the period 2007–2009, using the linear mixed-effects model estimated with the restricted-maximum-likelihood method. Results confirmed that the applied tariff had a negative effect on residential water consumption and that it was a relevant driver of domestic water consumption. Moreover, income per capita had a positive effect on water consumption. Among measured cli...

  6. Potential for energy technologies in residential and commercial buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glesk, M.M.

    1979-11-01

    The residential-commercial energy technology model was developed as a planning tool for policy analysis in the residential and commercial building sectors. The model and its procedures represent a detailed approach to estimating the future acceptance of energy-using technologies both in new construction and for retrofit into existing buildings. The model organizes into an analytical framework all relevant information and data on building energy technology, building markets, and government policy, and it allows for easy identification of the relative importance of key assumptions. The outputs include estimates of the degree of penetration of the various building energy technologies, the levels of energy use savings associated with them, and their costs - both private and government. The model was designed to estimate the annual energy savings associated with new technologies compared with continued use of conventional technology at 1975 levels. The amount of energy used under 1975 technology conditions is referred to as the reference case energy use. For analytical purposes the technologies were consolidated into ten groupings: electric and gas heat pumps; conservation categories I, II, and III; solar thermal (hot water, heating, and cooling); photovoltaics, and wind systems. These groupings clearly do not allow an assessment of the potential for individual technologies, but they do allow a reasonable comparison of their roles in the R/C sector. Assumptions were made regarding the technical and economic performances of the technologies over the period of the analysis. In addition, the study assessed the non-financial characteristics of the technologies - aesthetics, maintenance complexity, reliability, etc. - that will also influence their market acceptability.

  7. Univariate time series modeling and an application to future claims amount in SOCSO's invalidity pension scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chek, Mohd Zaki Awang; Ahmad, Abu Bakar; Ridzwan, Ahmad Nur Azam Ahmad; Jelas, Imran Md.; Jamal, Nur Faezah; Ismail, Isma Liana; Zulkifli, Faiz; Noor, Syamsul Ikram Mohd

    2012-09-01

    The main objective of this study is to forecast the future claims amount of Invalidity Pension Scheme (IPS). All data were derived from SOCSO annual reports from year 1972 - 2010. These claims consist of all claims amount from 7 benefits offered by SOCSO such as Invalidity Pension, Invalidity Grant, Survivors Pension, Constant Attendance Allowance, Rehabilitation, Funeral and Education. Prediction of future claims of Invalidity Pension Scheme will be made using Univariate Forecasting Models to predict the future claims among workforce in Malaysia.

  8. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. Copyright © 2016.

  9. The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

    2014-11-01

    Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

  10. Modelling the future of the arctic sea ice cover

    OpenAIRE

    Myklebust, Erik Bryhn

    2017-01-01

    Record lows in sea ice cover have recently sparked new interest in the small ice cap instability. The change in albedo when sea ice becomes open water introduces a nonlinearity called the ice-albedo feedback. Forcing a joint energy- balance and sea ice model can lead to unstable ice caps in certain parameter regimes. When the ice caps are unstable, a small perturbation will initiate a tipping point in the sea ice cover. For tipping points in general, a number of studies have pointed out that ...

  11. Future high precision experiments and new physics beyond Standard Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Mingxing.

    1993-01-01

    High precision (< 1%) electroweak experiments that have been done or are likely to be done in this decade are examined on the basis of Standard Model (SM) predictions of fourteen weak neutral current observables and fifteen W and Z properties to the one-loop level, the implications of the corresponding experimental measurements to various types of possible new physics that enter at the tree or loop level were investigated. Certain experiments appear to have special promise as probes of the new physics considered here

  12. The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Modeling Turkey’s future LNG supply security strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efe Biresselioglu, Mehmet; Hakan Demir, Muhittin; Kandemir, Cansu

    2012-01-01

    Turkey was among those countries which decided to increase its natural gas consumption in the 1990s, due to its relative low cost and lack of impact on the environment. However, a heavy dependence on imports, from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, respectively, creates a threat to energy security, both in terms of source and supply diversity. Accordingly, we follow an analytical approach to identify the accuracy of our assumption, considering the current economic, political and security risk. To this end, we formulate and solve a mixed integer programming model that determines the optimal sourcing strategy for Turkey’s increasing LNG demand. This model demonstrates a number of alternative policy options for LNG supply. Furthermore, we consider that increasing the proportion of LNG in the overall gas supply will contribute to the aim of improving Turkey’s level of energy security. - Highlights: ► Turkey’s best policy option is to increase the share of LNG. ► Turkey’s main suppliers of LNG will be Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago. ► Norway, Libya, and Oman contribute to the supply with rather smaller shares. ► With high risk scenario Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Libya will not be suppliers. ► Oman and Qatar will cover; even though they are high-cost suppliers.

  14. Towards a lumped reaction model for future designer fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandersickel, A.; Wright, Y.M.; Boulouchos, K. [ETH Zurich, Aerothermochemistry and Combustion Systems Laboratory, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Energy Technology

    2009-07-01

    The homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) is one of the most promising engine processes to simultaneously reduce nitrogen oxide and soot emissions. However, its applicability is hindered by its relatively limited operating range. Designer fuels offer unique possibilities for tailoring evaporation and auto-ignition properties, offering a means to control and expand the HCCI operation range. The identification of HCCI relevant fuel properties as well as the definition of a new fuel index able to describe a fuels suitability for HCCI was required in order to develop such designer fuels. This paper discussed a numerical and experimental investigation of a large set of technical fuels covering a wide range of properties. The paper discussed mechanism development approaches, optimization of the lumped mechanism, and and results. Zheng's 7-step reaction mechanism was successfully coupled with a genetic optimization algorithm and fitted to n-heptane ignition delay data. It was concluded that the presented coupled approach could improve the predictive quality of the model and demonstrate that the Zheng model was sufficiently elaborate to emulate the influence of temperature, pressure, exhaust gas recirculation and lambda on ignition. 8 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  15. Towards a lumped reaction model for future designer fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandersickel, A.; Wright, Y.M.; Boulouchos, K.

    2009-01-01

    The homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) is one of the most promising engine processes to simultaneously reduce nitrogen oxide and soot emissions. However, its applicability is hindered by its relatively limited operating range. Designer fuels offer unique possibilities for tailoring evaporation and auto-ignition properties, offering a means to control and expand the HCCI operation range. The identification of HCCI relevant fuel properties as well as the definition of a new fuel index able to describe a fuels suitability for HCCI was required in order to develop such designer fuels. This paper discussed a numerical and experimental investigation of a large set of technical fuels covering a wide range of properties. The paper discussed mechanism development approaches, optimization of the lumped mechanism, and and results. Zheng's 7-step reaction mechanism was successfully coupled with a genetic optimization algorithm and fitted to n-heptane ignition delay data. It was concluded that the presented coupled approach could improve the predictive quality of the model and demonstrate that the Zheng model was sufficiently elaborate to emulate the influence of temperature, pressure, exhaust gas recirculation and lambda on ignition. 8 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  16. Parallel Beam Dynamics Simulation Tools for Future Light Source Linac Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiang, Ji; Pogorelov, Ilya v.; Ryne, Robert D.

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale modeling on parallel computers is playing an increasingly important role in the design of future light sources. Such modeling provides a means to accurately and efficiently explore issues such as limits to beam brightness, emittance preservation, the growth of instabilities, etc. Recently the IMPACT codes suite was enhanced to be applicable to future light source design. Simulations with IMPACT-Z were performed using up to one billion simulation particles for the main linac of a future light source to study the microbunching instability. Combined with the time domain code IMPACT-T, it is now possible to perform large-scale start-to-end linac simulations for future light sources, including the injector, main linac, chicanes, and transfer lines. In this paper we provide an overview of the IMPACT code suite, its key capabilities, and recent enhancements pertinent to accelerator modeling for future linac-based light sources

  17. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  18. Blended learning in anesthesia education: current state and future model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Jaya; Kurup, Viji

    2012-12-01

    Educators in anesthesia residency programs across the country are facing a number of challenges as they attempt to integrate blended learning techniques in their curriculum. Compared with the rest of higher education, which has made advances to varying degrees in the adoption of online learning anesthesiology education has been sporadic in the active integration of blended learning. The purpose of this review is to discuss the challenges in anesthesiology education and relevance of the Universal Design for Learning framework in addressing them. There is a wide chasm between student demand for online education and the availability of trained faculty to teach. The design of the learning interface is important and will significantly affect the learning experience for the student. This review examines recent literature pertaining to this field, both in the realm of higher education in general and medical education in particular, and proposes the application of a comprehensive learning model that is new to anesthesiology education and relevant to its goals of promoting self-directed learning.

  19. Potential Evaluation of Energy Supply System in Grid Power System, Commercial, and Residential Sectors by Minimizing Energy Cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, Takuya; Akisawa, Atushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

    If the economic activity in the commercial and residential sector continues to grow, improvement in energy conversion efficiencies of energy supply systems is necessary for CO2 mitigation. In recent years, the electricity driven hot water heat pump (EDHP) and the solar photo voltaic (PV) are commercialized. The fuel cell (FC) of co-generation system (CGS) for the commercial and residential sector will be commercialized in the future. The aim is to indicate the ideal energy supply system of the users sector, which both manages the economical cost and CO2 mitigation, considering the grid power system. In the paper, cooperative Japanese energy supply systems are modeled by linear-programming. It includes the grid power system and energy systems of five commercial sectors and a residential sector. The demands of sectors are given by the objective term for 2005 to 2025. 24 hours load for each 3 annual seasons are considered. The energy systems are simulated to be minimize the total cost of energy supply, and to be mitigate the CO2 discharge. As result, the ideal energy system at 2025 is shown. The CGS capacity grows to 30% (62GW) of total power system, and the EDHP capacity is 26GW, in commercial and residential sectors.

  20. Impact of HVOTLs on Residential Property Rental Values in High ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study encouraged the use of buried armour cables instead of overhead power-lines in future and the strict enforcement of ROWs within Lagos metropolis where power-lines already exist, in a bid to abate the effect of power line on property investments. Keywords: HVOTLs, Power-line, Residential, Property, Rental ...

  1. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  2. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  3. Electricity demand for South Korean residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sa'ad, Suleiman

    2009-01-01

    This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment.

  4. Electricity demand for South Korean residential sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sa' ad, Suleiman [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

    2009-12-15

    This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment. (author)

  5. Energy efficient residential house wall system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldawi, Fayez; Date, Abhijit; Alam, Firoz; Khan, Iftekhar; Alghamdi, Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    The energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission by the residential housing sector are considered to be one of the largest in economically developed countries. The larger energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission not only put additional pressure on finite fossil fuel resources but also cause global warming and climate change. Additionally, the residential housing sector will be consuming more energy as the house demand and average house floor area are progressively increasing. With currently used residential house wall systems, it is hard to reduce energy consumption for ongoing house space heating and cooling. A smart house wall envelope with optimal thermal masses and insulation materials is vital for reducing our increasing energy consumption. The major aim of this study is to investigate thermal performance and energy saving potential of a new house wall system for variable climate conditions. The thermal performance modelling was carried out using commercially developed software AccuRate ® . The findings indicate that a notable energy savings can be accomplished if a smart house wall system is used. -- Highlights: • Smart house wall system. • Thermal performance modelling and star energy rating. • Energy savings and greenhouse gas reduction

  6. The effect of economic factors and energy efficiency programs on residential electricity consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Mihoko

    Many countries have implemented policies to correct market and behavioral failures that lead to inefficient energy use. It is important to know what factors and policies can effectively overcome such failures and improve energy efficiency; however, a comprehensive analysis has been difficult because of data limitations. Using state scores compiled by American organizations recently, and adopting fixed-effects regression models, I analyze the joint impacts of relevant factors and policy programs on residential electricity consumption in each U.S. state. The empirical results reveal that increases in electricity price have small and negative effects, and increases in personal income have positive effects on residential electricity sales per capita (a measure of energy efficiency). The results suggest that it may take time for economic factors to affect electricity sales. The effects of personal income suggest the difficulty of controlling residential electricity consumption; however, they also imply that there is some room in households to reduce electricity use. The study also finds that programs and budgets of several policies seem to be associated with electricity sales. The estimates from a model including interaction terms suggest the importance of including multiple policies when analyzing and designing policies to address electricity efficiency. The results also imply the possibility of rebound effects of some policies, whereby improvements in energy efficiency lead to increases in energy consumption due to the associated lower per unit cost. Future studies should analyze both short-term and long-term effects of economic factors and policies, based on improved and accumulated time series and panel data, in order to design more effective policies for improving residential electricity efficiency.

  7. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    ) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from...... model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate...... in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well...

  8. Costs of day hospital and community residential chemical dependency treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskutas, Lee Ann; Zavala, Silvana K; Parthasarathy, Sujaya; Witbrodt, Jane

    2008-03-01

    Patient placement criteria developed by the American Society of Addiction Medicine (ASAM) have identified a need for low-intensity residential treatment as an alternative to day hospital for patients with higher levels of severity. A recent clinical trial found similar outcomes at social model residential treatment and clinically-oriented day hospital programs, but did not report on costs. This paper addresses whether the similar outcomes in the recent trial were delivered with comparable costs, overall and within gender and ethnicity stratum. This paper reports on clients not at environmental risk who participated in a randomized trial conducted in three metropolitan areas served by a large pre-paid health plan. Cost data were collected using the Drug Abuse Treatment Cost Analysis Program (DATCAP). Costs per episode were calculated by multiplying DATCAP-derived program-specific costs by each client's length of stay. Differences in length of stay, and in per-episode costs, were compared between residential and day hospital subjects. Lengths of stay at residential treatment were significantly longer than at day hospital, in the sample overall and in disaggregated analyses. This difference was especially marked among non-Whites. The average cost per week was USD 575 per week at day hospital, versus USD 370 per week at the residential programs. However, because of the longer stays in residential, per-episode costs were significantly higher in the sample overall and among non-Whites (and marginally higher for men). These cost results must be considered in light of the null findings comparing outcomes between subjects randomized to residential versus day hospital programs. The longer stays in the sample overall and for non-White clients at residential programs came at higher costs but did not lead to better rates of abstinence. The short stays in day hospital among non-Whites call into question the attractiveness of day hospital for minority clients. Outcomes and costs

  9. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  10. Long-term characterization of residential runoff and assessing potential surrogates of fecal indicator organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reano, Dane C; Haver, Darren L; Oki, Lorence R; Yates, Marylynn V

    2015-05-01

    Investigations into the microbiological impacts of urban runoff on receiving water bodies, especially during storm conditions, have yielded general paradigms that influence runoff abatement and control management strategies. To determine whether these trends are present in other runoff sources, the physical, chemical, and microbiological components of residential runoff from eight neighborhoods in Northern and Southern California were characterized over the course of five years. Sampling occurred regularly and during storm events, resulting in 833 data sets. Analysis of runoff data assisted in characterizing residential runoff, elucidating differences between dry and storm conditions, and identifying surrogates capable of assessing microbiological quality. Results indicate that although microbial loading increases during storm events similar to urban runoff, annual microbial loading in these study sites principally occurs during dry conditions (24% storm, 76% dry). Generated artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models assessed surrogate performance by accurately predicting Escherichia coli concentrations from validation data sets (R(2) = 0.74 and 0.77, respectively), but required input from other fecal indicator organism (FIO) variables to maintain performance (R(2) = 0.27 and 0.18, respectively, without FIO). This long-term analysis of residential runoff highlights characteristics distinct from urban runoff and establishes necessary variables for determining microbiological quality, thus better informing future management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Smart meter adoption and deployment strategy for residential buildings in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, Jui-Sheng; Gusti Ayu Novi Yutami, I

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Limited consumer awareness of smart meters contributes to skepticism. • Data obtained from a survey of energy users are analyzed using SEM. • A CAP index is developed via SEM results to measure consumer propensity for adopting smart meters. • The findings of this study enhance understanding of consumer perceptions and behaviors. • Concrete strategies are proposed to help policy makers and utility companies. - Abstract: For countries pursuing sustainable development and energy efficiency, the use of smart meters is considered a first step in allowing residential consumers to remotely control their energy consumption, and a promising technology for conserving limited energy resources. However, despite the growing interest in smart meters, limited consumer awareness, knowledge, and understanding of these devices contributes to skepticism. This study thus developed an index to measure consumer propensity to adopt smart meters in residential buildings. Data obtained from a survey of energy use by Indonesian households were analyzed using structural equation modeling to determine the interacting factors in consumer acceptance of smart meters. Consumer perceptions, expectations, and intentions regarding the potential use of smart meters in Indonesia were also discussed. The findings of this study enhance understanding of consumer perceptions and behaviors, and can help decision makers and energy utility companies develop policies and strategies for a “one-size-fits-all” program related to smart meter applications in future residential buildings

  12. To Model for the Georeferenciation of the Colonization of the Forest to Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angel Sanint, Enrique; Castano Posada, Carlos Mario

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for the future geographical projection of the forest colonization process is proposed. The model allows the estimation of future forest areas and their geographical location, in such a way that it is possible to create a probable image of the forest coverage at a given future date. The model is based on the preservation of historical statistical parameters through the use of multi-temporal analysis of satellite images. The developed projection method is applied to San Vicente del Chucuri Santander, Colombia) using four Land sat satellite images from 1977, 1985, 1991 and 1998. The statistical behavior of the colonization process is established, to produce a future forest image for the year 2005 in the study area

  13. Solar access of residential rooftops in four California cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Pomerantz, Melvin

    2010-05-14

    Shadows cast by trees and buildings can limit the solar access of rooftop solar-energy systems, including photovoltaic panels and thermal collectors. This study characterizes residential rooftop shading in Sacramento, San Jose, Los Angeles and San Diego, CA. Our analysis can be used to better estimate power production and/or thermal collection by rooftop solar-energy equipment. It can also be considered when designing programs to plant shade trees. High-resolution orthophotos and LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) measurements of surface height were used to create a digital elevation model of all trees and buildings in a well-treed 2.5-4 km{sup 2} residential neighborhood. On-hour shading of roofing planes (the flat elements of roofs) was computed geometrically from the digital elevation model. Values in future years were determined by repeating these calculations after simulating tree growth. Parcel boundaries were used to determine the extent to which roofing planes were shaded by trees and buildings in neighboring parcels. For the subset of S+SW+W-facing planes on which solar equipment is commonly installed for maximum solar access, absolute light loss in spring, summer and fall peaked about two to four hours after sunrise and about two to four hours before sunset. The fraction of annual insolation lost to shading increased from 0.07-0.08 in the year of surface-height measurement to 0.11-0.14 after 30 years of tree growth. Only about 10% of this loss results from shading by trees and buildings in neighboring parcels.

  14. Residential normalcy and environmental experiences of very old people: changes in residential reasoning over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granbom, Marianne; Himmelsbach, Ines; Haak, Maria; Löfqvist, Charlotte; Oswald, Frank; Iwarsson, Susanne

    2014-04-01

    The decision to relocate in old age is intricately linked to thoughts and desires to stay put. However, most research focuses either on strategies that allow people to age in place or on their reasons for relocation. There is a need for more knowledge on very old peoples' residential reasoning, including thoughts about aging in place and thoughts about relocation as one intertwined process evolving in everyday life. The aim of this study was to explore what we refer to as the process of residential reasoning and how it changes over time among very old people, and to contribute to the theoretical development regarding aging in place and relocation. Taking a longitudinal perspective, data stem from the ENABLE-AGE In-depth Study, with interviews conducted in 2003 followed up in interviews in 2011. The 16 participants of the present study were 80-89years at the time of the first interview. During analysis the Theoretical Model of Residential Normalcy by Golant and the Life Course Model of Environmental Experience by Rowles & Watkins were used as sensitizing concepts. The findings revealed changes in the process of residential reasoning that related to a wide variety of issues. Such issues included the way very old people use their environmental experience, their striving to build upon or dismiss attachment to place, and their attempts to maintain or regain residential normalcy during years of declining health and loss of independence. In addition, the changes in reasoning were related to end-of-life issues. The findings contribute to the theoretical discussion on aging in place, relocation as a coping strategy, and reattachment after moving in very old age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of advanced technologies for residential appliances and residential and commercial lighting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turiel, I.; Atkinson, B.; Boghosian, S.; Chan, P.; Jennings, J.; Lutz, J.; McMahon, J.; Rosenquist, G.

    1995-01-01

    Section 127 of the Energy Policy Act requires that the Department of Energy (DOE) prepare a report to Congress on the potential for the development and commercialization of appliances that substantially exceed the present federal or state efficiency standards. Candidate high-efficiency appliances must meet several criteria including: the potential exists for substantial improvement (beyond the minimum established in law) of the appliance`s energy efficiency; electric, water, or gas utilities are prepared to support and promote the commercialization of such appliances; manufacturers are unlikely to undertake development and commercialization of such appliances on their own, or development and production would be substantially accelerated by support to manufacturers. This report describes options to improve the efficiency of residential appliances, including water heaters, clothes washers and dryers, refrigerator/freezers, dishwashers, space heating and cooling devices, as well as residential and commercial lighting products. Data from this report (particularly Appendix 1)were used to prepare the report to Congress mentioned previously. For the residential sector, national energy savings are calculated using the LBL Residential Energy Model. This model projects the number of households and appliance saturations over time. First, end-use consumption is calculated for a base case where models that only meet the standard replace existing models as these reach the end of their lifetime. Second, models with efficiencies equal to the technology under consideration replace existing models that reach the end of their lifetime. For the commercial sector, the COMMEND model was utilized to project national energy savings from new technologies. In this report, energy savings are shown for the period 1988 to 2015.

  16. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shilei, Lv [School of Environment Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Yong, Wu [Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People' s Republic of China, Beijing 100835 (China)

    2009-06-15

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5 x 10{sup 8} m{sup 2} of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested. (author)

  17. Target-oriented obstacle analysis by PESTEL modeling of energy efficiency retrofit for existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shilei, Lv; Wu Yong

    2009-01-01

    According to the 'Comprehensive Work Program of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction' of the Chinese government, during the period of the '11th Five-Year Plan', 1.5x10 8 m 2 of existing residential buildings in China's northern heating region are to be retrofitted for energy efficiency. However, at present, this 'Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings' (EERFERB) faces many obstacles. Under the current working and market system, both the central and local governments and the energy supply companies can not push on this work smoothly. Using both the results of the annual national special inspection of building energy efficiency and some case analyses, this paper examines the necessity for energy efficiency retrofit, along with the relationships among the various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal (PESTEL) factors affecting it. Furthermore, organizational, financial and technical support systems are explored to promote the development of retrofit. Finally, some primary principles to be followed toward the implementation of EERFERB are suggested.

  18. Proceedings of standard model at the energy of present and future accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csikor, F.; Pocsik, G.; Toth, E.

    1992-01-01

    This book contains the proceedings of the Workshop on The Standard Model at the Energy of the Present and Future Accelerators, 27 June - 1 July 1989, Budapest. The Standard Model of strong and electro-weak interactions providing essential insights into the fundamental structure of matter and being the basic building block of further generalizations has a rich content. The Workshop was devoted to discussing topical problems of testing the Standard Model in high energy reactions such as jet physics and fragmentation, new applications and tests of perturbative QCD, CP-violation, B-meson physics and developments in weak decays, some of the future experimental plans and related topics

  19. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  20. A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Kin On; Read, Jonathan M; Tang, Arthur; Chen, Hong; Riley, Steven; Kam, Kai Man

    2018-04-18

    Non-hospital residential facilities are important reservoirs for MRSA transmission. However, conclusions and public health implications drawn from the many mathematical models depicting nosocomial MRSA transmission may not be applicable to these settings. Therefore, we reviewed the MRSA transmission dynamics studies in defined non-hospital residential facilities to: (1) provide an overview of basic epidemiology which has been addressed; (2) identify future research direction; and (3) improve future model implementation. A review was conducted by searching related keywords in PUBMED without time restriction as well as internet searches via Google search engine. We included only articles describing the epidemiological transmission pathways of MRSA/community-associated MRSA within and between defined non-hospital residential settings. Among the 10 included articles, nursing homes (NHs) and correctional facilities (CFs) were two settings considered most frequently. Importation of colonized residents was a plausible reason for MRSA outbreaks in NHs, where MRSA was endemic without strict infection control interventions. The importance of NHs over hospitals in increasing nosocomial MRSA prevalence was highlighted. Suggested interventions in NHs included: appropriate staffing level, screening and decolonizing, and hand hygiene. On the other hand, the small population amongst inmates in CFs has no effect on MRSA community transmission. Included models ranged from system-level compartmental models to agent-based models. There was no consensus over the course of disease progression in these models, which were mainly featured with NH residents /CF inmates/ hospital patients as transmission pathways. Some parameters used by these models were outdated or unfit. Importance of NHs has been highlighted from these current studies addressing scattered aspects of MRSA epidemiology. However, the wide variety of non-hospital residential settings suggest that more work is needed before

  1. Optimizing Energy Savings from Direct-DC in U.S. Residential Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garbesi, Karina; Vossos, Vagelis; Sanstad, Alan; Burch, Gabriel

    2011-10-13

    An increasing number of energy efficient appliances operate on direct current (DC) internally, offering the potential to use DC from renewable energy systems directly and avoiding the losses inherent in converting power to alternating current (AC) and back. This paper investigates that potential for net-metered residences with on-site photovoltaics (PV) by modeling the net power draw of the ‘direct-DC house’ with respect to today’s typical configuration, assuming identical DC-internal loads. Power draws were modeled for houses in 14 U.S. cities, using hourly, simulated PV-system output and residential loads. The latter were adjusted to reflect a 33% load reduction, representative of the most efficient DC-internal technology, based on an analysis of 32 electricity end-uses. The model tested the effect of climate, electric vehicle (EV) loads, electricity storage, and load shifting on electricity savings; a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how future changes in the efficiencies of power system components might affect savings potential. Based on this work, we estimate that net-metered PV residences could save 5% of their total electricity load for houses without storage and 14% for houses with storage. Based on residential PV penetration projections for year 2035 obtained from the National Energy Modeling System (2.7% for the reference case and 11.2% for the extended policy case), direct-DC could save the nation 10 trillion Btu (without storage) or 40 trillion Btu (with storage). Shifting the cooling load by two hours earlier in the day (pre-cooling) has negligible benefits for energy savings. Direct-DC provides no energy savings benefits for EV charging, to the extent that charging occurs at night. However, if charging occurred during the day, for example with employees charging while at work, the benefits would be large. Direct-DC energy savings are sensitive to power system and appliance conversion efficiencies but are not significantly

  2. Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

  3. A Neo-Rawlsian Approach to Residential Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin J. Brown

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the past 40 years, the United States has engaged in various policies to integrate otherwise segregated black and white households within a shared space. However, little work has been done to fully articulate a moral argument for residential integration among black and white households. This paper offers what I refer to as the normative argument, which possesses two morally-impelled arguments for residential integration. Since the ethical appeal to integrate is often couched in the language of justice, I begin with a framework—based upon the work of the late philosopher John Rawls—for considering the moral aspects of residential integration. However, I go on to point out intractable problems related to the Rawlsian framework that would fail to flesh out all ethical considerations of the normative argument. From here, I provide a revised, or neo-Rawlsian, framework for understanding residential integration which addresses the aforementioned problems. This exercise is both important and necessary for the future of residential mixing, as better understanding the moral and ethical attributes of this discussion is, perhaps, the best means to lubricate the fundamental shift from 'spatial' to 'social' integration.

  4. An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Ishihara, Keiichi N.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An integrated model for planning future smart electricity systems was developed. • The model consists of an optimization model and an hour-by-hour simulation model. • The model was applied to Tokyo area, Japan in light of the Fukushima Accident. • Paths to best generation mixes of smart electricity systems were obtained. • Detailed hourly operation patterns in smart electricity systems were obtained. - Abstract: In the present study, an integrated planning model was developed to find economically/environmentally optimized paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy and new controllable electric devices at the supply and demand sides respectively for regional scale. The integrated model is used to (i) plan the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demand subject to various constraints using an optimization model; (ii) obtain detailed operation patterns of power plants and new controllable electric devices using an hour-by-hour simulation model based on the obtained optimized power generation mix. As a case study, the model was applied to power generation planning in the Tokyo area, Japan, out to 2030 in light of the Fukushima Accident. The paths toward best generation mixes of smart electricity systems in 2030 based on fossil fuel, hydro power, nuclear and renewable energy were obtained and the feasibility of the integrated model was proven

  5. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 3 -- Residential and commercial sector DSM analyses: Detailed results from the DBEDT DSM assessment model; Part 1, Technical potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    The Hawaii Demand-Side Management Resource Assessment was the fourth of seven projects in the Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) program. HES was designed by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) to produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. The purpose of Project 4 was to develop a comprehensive assessment of Hawaii`s demand-side management (DSM) resources. To meet this objective, the project was divided into two phases. The first phase included development of a DSM technology database and the identification of Hawaii commercial building characteristics through on-site audits. These Phase 1 products were then used in Phase 2 to identify expected energy impacts from DSM measures in typical residential and commercial buildings in Hawaii. The building energy simulation model DOE-2.1E was utilized to identify the DSM energy impacts. More detailed information on the typical buildings and the DOE-2.1E modeling effort is available in Reference Volume 1, ``Building Prototype Analysis``. In addition to the DOE-2.1E analysis, estimates of residential and commercial sector gas and electric DSM potential for the four counties of Honolulu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai through 2014 were forecasted by the new DBEDT DSM Assessment Model. Results from DBEDTs energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, were linked with results from DOE-2.1E building energy simulation runs and estimates of DSM measure impacts, costs, lifetime, and anticipated market penetration rates in the DBEDT DSM Model. Through its algorithms, estimates of DSM potential for each forecast year were developed. Using the load shape information from the DOE-2.1E simulation runs, estimates of electric peak demand impacts were developed. Numerous tables and figures illustrating the technical potential for demand-side management are included.

  6. Dynamic modelling of future land use change under urbanization and climate change pressures: application to a case study in central Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, I.; Fontaine, C. M.; Dendoncker, N.; François, L.; De Vreese, R.; Marek, A.; Mortelmans, D.; Van Herzele, A.; Devillet, G.

    2012-04-01

    version of the model developed for natural vegetation has been upgraded to include crop systems and pastures. The ABM (Murray-Rust, Journal of Land Use Science, 6(2-3):83-99, 2011) describes the management choices (e.g., crop rotation, intensive agriculture or organic farming, etc) for each land plot, as well as the possible change in their affectation (e.g., conversion of farm fields to residential areas in response to urbanization), under different socio-economic contexts described in the storyline of three scenarios depicting general societal orientations (business-as-usual; market oriented; sustainability oriented). As a result, the ABM produces a dynamic evolution of land use and management options to be passed on to the DVM for further analysis. The outputs from the DVM allow evaluating quantitatively the provision of EGS by each land plot. This DVM-ABM modelling tool is thus able to describe the future evolution of land use and land cover, as well as of EGS production, in the context of socio-economic scenarios. The model is applied to a case study area covering four municipalities located in central Belgium close to Brussels and Leuven. The area is mostly composed of agricultural fields (crops and meadows), residential areas and a large protected forest (Meerdaalbos) and is subject to intense urbanization pressure due to the proximity to Brussels.

  7. Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, B.; Hansen, H.S.

    2013-01-01

    project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...

  8. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  9. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  10. Model-based Integration of Past & Future in TimeTravel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalefa, Mohamed E.; Fischer, Ulrike; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2012-01-01

    We demonstrate TimeTravel, an efficient DBMS system for seamless integrated querying of past and (forecasted) future values of time series, allowing the user to view past and future values as one joint time series. This functionality is important for advanced application domain like energy....... The main idea is to compactly represent time series as models. By using models, the TimeTravel system answers queries approximately on past and future data with error guarantees (absolute error and confidence) one order of magnitude faster than when accessing the time series directly. In addition...... it to answer approximate and exact queries. TimeTravel is implemented into PostgreSQL, thus achieving complete user transparency at the query level. In the demo, we show the easy building of a hierarchical model index for a real-world time series and the effect of varying the error guarantees on the speed up...

  11. Modeling and optimization of a heat-pump-assisted high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell micro-combined-heat-and-power system for residential applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arsalis, Alexandros; Kær, Søren Knudsen; Nielsen, Mads Pagh

    2015-01-01

    In this study a micro-combined-heat-and-power (micro-CHP) system is coupled to a vapor-compression heat pump to fulfill the residential needs for heating (space heating and water heating) and electricity in detached single-family households in Denmark. Such a combination is assumed to be attractive...... for application, since both fuel cell technology and electric heat pumps are found to be two of the most efficient technologies for generation/conversion of useful energy. The micro-CHP system is fueled with natural gas and includes a fuel cell stack, a fuel processor and other auxiliary components. The micro......-CHP system assumes heat-led operation, to avoid dumping of heat and the use of complicated thermal energy storage. The overall system is grid-interconnected to allow importing and exporting of electricity as necessary. In this study emphasis is given on the operational characterization of the system...

  12. Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossola, Alessandro; Hopton, Matthew E

    2018-01-15

    The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss to decreases in canopy cover. However, this provides little information about location and structural characteristics of trees lost, as well as environmental and social factors affecting tree loss dynamics. This is particularly relevant in residential landscapes where access to residential parcels for field surveys is limited. We tested whether multi-temporal airborne LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery collected at a 5-year interval can be used to investigate urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes in Denver, CO and Milwaukee, WI, covering 400,705 residential parcels in 444 census tracts. Position and stem height of trees lost were extracted from canopy height models calculated as the difference between final (year 5) and initial (year 0) vegetation height derived from LiDAR. Multivariate regression models were used to predict number and height of tree stems lost in residential parcels in each census tract based on urban morphological and socio-economic variables. A total of 28,427 stems were lost from residential parcels in Denver and Milwaukee over 5years. Overall, 7% of residential parcels lost one stem, averaging 90.87 stems per km 2 . Average stem height was 10.16m, though trees lost in Denver were taller compared to Milwaukee. The number of stems lost was higher in neighborhoods with higher canopy cover and developed before the 1970s. However, socio-economic characteristics had little effect on tree loss dynamics. The study provides a simple method for measuring urban tree loss dynamics within and across entire cities, and represents a further step toward high resolution assessments of the three-dimensional change of urban vegetation at large spatial scales. Published by

  13. Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Draeger

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

  14. The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

  15. Optimum residential load management strategy for real time pricing (RTP) demand response programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lujano-Rojas, Juan M.; Monteiro, Cláudio; Dufo-López, Rodolfo; Bernal-Agustín, José L.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an optimal load management strategy for residential consumers that utilizes the communication infrastructure of the future smart grid. The strategy considers predictions of electricity prices, energy demand, renewable power production, and power-purchase of energy of the consumer in determining the optimal relationship between hourly electricity prices and the use of different household appliances and electric vehicles in a typical smart house. The proposed strategy is illustrated using two study cases corresponding to a house located in Zaragoza (Spain) for a typical day in summer. Results show that the proposed model allows users to control their diary energy consumption and adapt their electricity bills to their actual economical situation. - Highlights: ► This work shows an optimal load management strategy for residential consumers. ► It has been considered the communication infrastructure of the future smart grid. ► A study case shows the optimal utilization of some appliances and electric vehicles. ► Results showed that the proposed model allows users to reduce their electricity bill.

  16. MODELLING THE FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ READINESS TO PERFORMING AND INTERPRETIVE ACTIVITY DURING INSTRUMENTAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chenj Bo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the main fields of training future music teachers in Ukrainian system of higher education is instrumental music one, such as skills of performing and interpretive activities. The aim of the article is to design a model of the future music teachers’ readiness to performing and interpretive activities in musical and instrumental training. The process of modelling is based on several interrelated scientific approaches, including systemic, personality-centered, reflective, competence, active and creative ones. While designing a model of music future teachers’ readinesses to musical interpretive activities, its philosophical, informative, interactive, hedonistic, creative functions are taken into account. Important theoretical and methodological factors are thought to be principles of musical and pedagogical education: culture correspondence and reflection; unity of emotional and conscious, artistic and technical items in musical education; purposeful interrelations and art and pedagogical communication between teachers and students; intensification of music and creative activity. Above-mentioned pedagogical phenomenon is subdivided into four components: motivation-oriented, cognitive-evaluating, performance-independent, creative and productive. For each component relevant criteria and indicators are identified. The stages of future music teachers’ readiness to performing interpretative activity are highlighted: information searching one, which contributes to the implementation of complex diagnostic methods (surveys, questionnaires, testing; regulative and performing one, which is characterized by future music teachers’ immersion into music performing and interpretative activities; operational and reflective stage, which involves activation of mechanisms of future music teachers’ self-knowledge, self-realization, formation of skills of independent artistic and expressive various music genres and styles interpretation; projective and

  17. Energy and IAQ Implications of Residential Ventilation Cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walker, Iain [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates the energy, humidity and indoor air quality (IAQ) implications of residential ventilation cooling in all U.S. IECC climate zones. A computer modeling approach was adopted, using an advanced residential building simulation tool with airflow, energy and humidity models. An economizer (large supply fan) was simulated to provide ventilation cooling while outdoor air temperatures were lower than indoor air temperatures (typically at night). The simulations were performed for a full year using one-minute time steps to allow for scheduling of ventilation systems and to account for interactions between ventilation and heating/cooling systems.

  18. The Model of Formation of Professional Competence of Future Software Engineers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Sedov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The rapid technological development of modern society fundamentally changes processes of production, communication and services. There is a great demand for specialists who are competent in recently emerged industries. Moreover, the gap between scientific invention and its wide distribution and consumption has significantly reduced. Therefore, we face an urgent need for preparation of specialists in higher education that meet the requirements of modern society and labour market. Particularly relevant is the issue of training of future software engineers in the system of master’s degree, which is the level of education that trains not only professionals, but also scientists and university teachers. The article presents a developed model of formation of professional competence of future software engineers in the system of master’s degree. The model comprises units of training of future software engineers, identifies methodological approaches, a number of general didactic and methodological principles that underpin learning processes in higher education. It describes methods, forms of organization and means that are used in the system of master’s degree, and also provides pedagogical conditions of effective implementation of the model. The developed model addresses the issue of individualization, intensification and optimization of studying. While developing the model, special attention was paid to updating the content of education and searching for new organizational forms of training of future software engineers.

  19. A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

  20. Blood pressure in young adulthood and residential greenness in the early-life environment of twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijnens, Esmée M; Nawrot, Tim S; Loos, Ruth Jf; Gielen, Marij; Vlietinck, Robert; Derom, Catherine; Zeegers, Maurice P

    2017-06-05

    Previous research shows that, besides risk factors in adult life, the early-life environment can influence blood pressure and hypertension in adults. However, the effects of residential traffic exposure and residential greenness in the early-life on blood pressure in young adulthood are currently unknown. Ambulatory (24-h) blood pressures of 278 twins (132 pairs) of the East Flanders Prospective Twins Study were obtained at the age of 18 to 25 years. Prenatal and adulthood residential addresses were geocoded and used to assign prenatal and postnatal traffic and greenness indicators. Mixed modelling was performed to investigate blood pressure in association with greenness while adjusting for potential confounding factors. Night-time systolic blood pressure was inversely associated with greenness at the residential address in twins living at the same address their entire life (non-movers, n = 97, 34.9%). An interquartile increase in residential greenness exposure (1000 m radius) was associated with a 3.59 mmHg (95% CI: -6.0 to -1.23; p = 0.005) lower adult night systolic blood pressure. Among twins who were living at a different address than their birth address at time of the measurement (n = 181, 65.1%), night-time blood pressure was inversely associated with residential surrounding greenness at adult age as well as with residential greenness in early-life. However after additional adjustment for residential greenness exposure in adulthood, only residential greenness exposure in early-life was significantly associated with night systolic blood pressure. While no significant effect of adult residential greenness with adult blood pressure was observed, while accounting for the early-life greenness exposure. Lower residential greenness in the early-life environment was independently associated with a higher adult blood pressure. This indicates that residential greenness has persistent effects on blood pressure.

  1. Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

  2. Change Processes in Residential Cognitive and Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Social Phobia: A Process-Outcome Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffart, Asle; Borge, Finn-Magnus; Sexton, Harold; Clark, David M.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to test cognitive and interpersonal models for improving social phobia. Eighty patients with social phobia were randomized to 10-week residential cognitive (RCT) or residential interpersonal psychotherapy (RIPT). They completed process measures every Thursday and a sub-outcome measure every Monday. The ratings were…

  3. Modeling and off-design performance of a 1 kWe HT-PEMFC (high temperature-proton exchange membrane fuel cell)-based residential micro-CHP (combined-heat-and-power) system for Danish single-family households

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arsalis, Alexandros; Nielsen, Mads Pagh; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2011-01-01

    A novel proposal for the modeling and operation of a micro-CHP (combined-heat-and-power) residential system based on HT-PEMFC (High Temperature-Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell) technology is described and analyzed to investigate its commercialization prospects. An HT-PEMFC operates at elevated...... temperatures, as compared to Nafion-based PEMFCs and therefore can be a significant candidate for cogeneration residential systems. The proposed system can provide electric power, hot water, and space heating for a typical Danish single-family household. A complete fuel processing subsystem, with all necessary...

  4. Spatio-temporal model based optimization framework to design future hydrogen infrastructure networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konda, N.V.S.; Shah, N.; Brandon, N.P.

    2009-01-01

    A mixed integer programming (MIP) spatio-temporal model was used to design hydrogen infrastructure networks for the Netherlands. The detailed economic analysis was conducted using a multi-echelon model of the entire hydrogen supply chain, including feed, production, storage, and transmission-distribution systems. The study considered various near-future and commercially available technologies. A multi-period model was used to design evolutionary hydrogen supply networks in coherence with growing demand. A scenario-based analysis was conducted in order to account for uncertainties in future demand. The study showed that competitive hydrogen networks can be designed for any conceivable scenario. It was concluded that the multi-period model presented significant advantages in relation to decision-making over long time-horizons

  5. Understanding Residential Polarization in a Globalizing City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Rotimi Aliu

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the spatial polarization that characterizes the dwellings in the African leading megacity of Lagos. Data were collected through an extensive housing survey carried out on 1,485 household residences in 56 wards within 12 administrative units in Lagos megacity. The spatial dimension of residential density in the city generates three unique residential patterns which are low residential density (LRD, medium residential density (MRD, and high residential density (HRD areas. Descriptive and multivariate inferential statistics were used to render explanations for the spatial variations in the residential quality variables in the study area. Findings indicated that a clear difference exists in the residential quality within the three residential density areas of Lagos. High correlations exist among the residential quality indicators and housing type. The principal component analysis shows that residential polarizations that occur in the LRD, MRD, and HRD are based on the location, dwelling facility, interior and exterior quality, neighborhood integrity, social bond, barrier to entry, and security. The practical implications of residential polarizations along the residential density areas are explicitly expressed.

  6. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  7. Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraan, O.; Kramer, G. J.; Nikolic, I.

    2018-01-01

    Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector

  8. Comparison of strategies for model predictive control for home heating in future energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogler-Finck, Pierre Jacques Camille; Popovski, Petar; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2017-01-01

    Model predictive control is seen as one of the key future enabler in increasing energy efficiency in buildings. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of the control for different formulations of the objective function. This comparison is made in a simulation study on a single buildi...

  9. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

    2017-01-01

    Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

  10. Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, Mikaela; Brinkman, Kees; Geerlings, Suzanne; Smit, Colette; Thyagarajan, Kalyani; Sighem, Ard van; de Wolf, Frank; Hallett, Timothy B.

    2015-01-01

    The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future. We constructed an individual-based model of the

  11. Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

  12. Future time perspective, regulatory focus, and selection, optimization, and compensation: Testing a longitudinal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baltes, B.B.; Wynne, K.; Sirabian, M.; Krenn, D.; Lange, A.H. de

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the behavioral processes through which future time perspective (FTP) and regulatory focus may influence coping behaviors in older workers. A three-wave longitudinal study was conducted to test a novel model, positing that FTP affects regulatory focus, which then influences the

  13. A Structural Equation Model of Customer Satisfaction and Future Purchase of Mail-Order Speciality Food

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mai, L.W.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Analyses the relationship between satisfaction with mail-order speciality food attributes, overall satisfaction, and likelihood of future purchase using a structural equation model. The results indicate that customer satisfaction is associated with both service and product features of mail order speciality food.

  14. Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) - a review of performed validation studies, and future prospects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kakosimos K.E., Konstantinos E.; Hertel, Ole; Ketzel, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    in this context is the fast and easy to apply Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). For almost 20 years, OSPM has been routinely used in many countries for studying traffic pollution, performing analyses of field campaign measurements, studying efficiency of pollution abatement strategies, carrying out...... exposure assessments and as reference in comparisons to other models. OSPM is generally considered as state-of-the-art in applied street pollution modelling. This paper outlines the most important findings in OSPM validation and application studies in literature. At the end of the paper, future research...... needs are outlined for traffic air pollution modelling in general but with outset in the research performed with OSPM....

  15. Residential Water Scarcity in Cyprus: Impact of Climate Change and Policy Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoros Zachariadis

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an assessment of the cost of water scarcity in Cyprus, today and in the next 20 years, taking into account the effect of projected climate change in the region. It focuses on the residential sector, accounting also for tourism and industry. Using a simple demand function, total scarcity costs in Cyprus are computed for the period 2010–2030, and three scenarios of future water demand are presented. The central estimate shows that the present value of total costs due to water shortages will amount to 72 million Euros (at 2009 prices, and, if future water demand increases a little faster, these costs may reach 200 million Euros. Using forecasts of regional climate models, costs are found to be about 20% higher in a “climate change” scenario. Compared to the loss of consumer surplus due to water shortages, desalination is found to be a costly solution, even if environmental damage costs from the operation of desalination plants are not accounted for. Finally, dynamic constrained optimization is employed and shows that efficient residential water prices should include a scarcity price of about 40 Eurocents per cubic meter at  2009 prices; this would constitute a 30–100% increase in current prices faced by residential consumers. Reductions in rainfall due to climate change would raise this price by another 2-3 Eurocents. Such a pricing policy would provide a clear long-term signal to consumers and firms and could substantially contribute to a sustainable use of water resources in the island.

  16. Data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models: current status and future prospects for coupled chemistry meteorology models

    OpenAIRE

    M. Bocquet; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; M. Hirtl; R. Žabkar; G. R. Carmichael; J. Flemming; A. Inness; M. Pagowski; J. L. Pérez Camaño; P. E. Saide; R. San Jose; M. Sofiev; J. Vira; A. Baklanov

    2015-01-01

    Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. They offer the possibility to assimilate both meteorologica...

  17. Technical Problems of Residential Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowogońska, Beata; Cibis, Jerzy

    2017-10-01

    Beauty, utility, durability - these are the features of good architecture and should also be the distinguishing qualities of every residential building. But do beauty and utility remain along with the passing of time? Performance characteristics are an indicator of both, the technical as well as aesthetic state of buildings. Aesthetic needs are in disagreement with the merciless aging process. The beauty of a city is formed not only by the original forms of new residential buildings, but also by existing tenement housing; thus preserving their aesthetics becomes a necessity. Time is continuously passing and along with it, aging intensifies. The aging process is a natural phenomenon for every material. The life expectancy of building materials is also limited. Along with the passing of time, the technical state of residential buildings continuously deteriorates. With the passing of time, the aesthetic values and preferences of users of flats change and the usability of the building decreases. The permanence of buildings, including residential buildings, is shaped not only by the forces of nature but also by activities of humans. A long lifespan is ensured by carrying out ongoing, systematic renovation-repair works. It is thanks to them that buildings derived from past centuries are still being used, and their market attractiveness is not decreasing.

  18. Residential solar-heating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-01-01

    Complete residential solar-heating and hot-water system, when installed in highly-insulated energy-saver home, can supply large percentage of total energy demand for space heating and domestic hot water. System which uses water-heating energy storage can be scaled to meet requirements of building in which it is installed.

  19. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2014-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  20. Reduce tax on residential mobility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ewijk, C.; van Leuvensteijn, M.

    2010-01-01

    How can Europe increase structural growth? This column argues that labour market flexibility is key. As a major barrier to labour movement is rigidity in the housing market, abolishing transfer taxes on residential property could result in gains of up to 0.4% of GDP.

  1. Zones 30 : urban residential areas.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2006-01-01

    Sustainable Safety uses a road categorization in which through traffic is concentrated on motorways and other main roads. In residential areas, which have a living, shopping, or work function, through traffic is discouraged by setting a speed limit of 30 km/h, and by speed reducing measures such as

  2. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

  3. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  4. Post-Retrofit Residential Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lancaster, Ross; lutzenhiser, Loren; Moezzi, Mithra; Widder, Sarah H.; Chandra, Subrato; Baechler, Michael C.

    2012-04-30

    This study examined a range of factors influencing energy consumption in households that had participated in residential energy-efficiency upgrades. The study was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and was conducted by faculty and staff of Portland State University Center for Urban Studies and Department of Economics. This work was made possible through the assistance and support of the Energy Trust of Oregon (ETO), whose residential energy-efficiency programs provided the population from which the sample cases were drawn. All households in the study had participated in the ETO Home Performance with Energy Star (HPwES) program. A number of these had concurrently pursued measures through other ETO programs. Post-retrofit energy outcomes are rarely investigated on a house-by-house basis. Rather, aggregate changes are ordinarily the focus of program impact evaluations, with deviation from aggregate expectations chalked up to measurement error, the vagaries of weather and idiosyncrasies of occupants. However, understanding how homes perform post-retrofit on an individual basis can give important insights to increase energy savings at the participant and the programmatic level. Taking a more disaggregated approach, this study analyzed energy consumption data from before and after the retrofit activity and made comparisons with engineering estimates for the upgrades, to identify households that performed differently from what may have been expected based on the estimates. A statistical analysis using hierarchal linear models, which accounted for weather variations, was performed looking separately at gas and electrical use during the periods before and after upgrades took place. A more straightforward comparison of billing data for 12-month periods before and after the intervention was also performed, yielding the majority of the cases examined. The later approach allowed total energy use and costs to be

  5. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  6. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  7. Optimization scheduling in intelligent Energy Management System for the DC residential distribution system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Jingpeng; Hu, Zhijian; Li, Chendan

    2017-01-01

    Smart DC residential distribution system(RDS) consisted by DC living homes will be a significant integral part in the future green transmission with demand flexibility. Meanwhile, the distributed generations will play an important role in the active demand response (DR). Energy Management System...... (EMS) with aid of the wireless communication and the smart meter is imperative in achieving ADR for DC residential community. This paper presents a framework of centralized management system integration and the key process of ADR in DC residential distribution system. The propose framework and methods...

  8. Price freezes, durables and residential electricity demand - Evidence from the Greater Buenos Aires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casarin, Ariel; Delfino, Maria Eugenia

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the determinants of residential electricity demand in the Greater Buenos Aires between 1997 and 2006. During the second half of this period, residential tariffs remained nominally fixed, while an income boom boosted up the sales of durables. This study differs from previous works in that it explicitly considers the impact of the stock of air-conditioners on residential demand. The paper reports short- and long-run elasticities and examines the contribution of prices and durables to recent demand growth. Simulations illustrate the impact of prices and durables on future demand.

  9. Qualitative exploration of relationships between peers in residential addiction treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, Joanne; Tompkins, Charlotte N E; Strang, John

    2018-01-01

    Relationships between peers are often considered central to the therapeutic process, yet there is relatively little empirical research either on the nature of peer-to-peer relationships within residential treatment or on how those relationships generate positive behaviour change or facilitate recovery. In this paper, we explore relationships between peers in residential addiction treatment, drawing upon the concept of social capital to frame our analyses. Our study was undertaken during 2015 and 2016 in two English residential treatment services using the same therapeutic community-informed model of treatment. We conducted 22 in-depth interviews with 13 current and 9 former service residents. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, coded in MAXQDA, and analysed using Iterative Categorisation. Residents reported difficult relationship histories and limited social networks on entry into treatment. Once in treatment, few residents described bonding with their peers on the basis of shared experiences and lifestyles. Instead, interpersonal differences polarised residents in ways that undermined their social capital further. Some senior peers who had been in residential treatment longer acted as positive role models, but many modelled negative behaviours that undermined others' commitment to treatment. Relationships between peers could generate feelings of comfort and connectedness, and friendships developed when residents found things in common with each other. However, residents more often reported isolation, loneliness, wariness, bullying, manipulation, intimidation, social distancing, tensions and conflict. Overall, relationships between peers within residential treatment seemed to generate some positive but more negative social capital; undermining the notion of the community as a method of positive behaviour change. With the caveat that our data have limitations and further research is needed, we suggest that residential treatment providers should

  10. Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network: A combination of network and gravity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano; Fracasso, Andrea; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2017-12-01

    The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation -a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to "imported water stress" as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

  11. Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaglia, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

  12. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  13. Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

    2018-03-01

    Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

  14. The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

    2017-05-03

    The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

  15. How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. - Highlights: • Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation. • An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models. • A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented. • The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied. • The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.

  16. MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

    2014-01-01

    State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

  17. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2008-01-01

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  18. Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lise, Wietze [IBS Research and Consultancy, Aga Han, Agahamami Cadessi 1/6, Cihangir, 34433 Beyoglu, Istanbul (Turkey); Energy Markets and International Environmental Policy group, ECN Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hobbs, Benjamin F. [Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Ames Hall 313, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2008-07-15

    Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible. (author)

  19. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  20. Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiota Galiatsatou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

  1. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  2. A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

  3. Intelligent demand side management of residential building energy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Maruti N.

    Advent of modern sensing technologies, data processing capabilities and rising cost of energy are driving the implementation of intelligent systems in buildings and houses which constitute 41% of total energy consumption. The primary motivation has been to provide a framework for demand-side management and to improve overall reliability. The entire formulation is to be implemented on NILM (Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring System), a smart meter. This is going to play a vital role in the future of demand side management. Utilities have started deploying smart meters throughout the world which will essentially help to establish communication between utility and consumers. This research is focused on investigation of a suitable thermal model of residential house, building up control system and developing diagnostic and energy usage forecast tool. The present work has considered measurement based approach to pursue. Identification of building thermal parameters is the very first step towards developing performance measurement and controls. The proposed identification technique is PEM (Prediction Error Method) based, discrete state-space model. The two different models have been devised. First model is focused toward energy usage forecast and diagnostics. Here one of the novel idea has been investigated which takes integral of thermal capacity to identify thermal model of house. The purpose of second identification is to build up a model for control strategy. The controller should be able to take into account the weather forecast information, deal with the operating point constraints and at the same time minimize the energy consumption. To design an optimal controller, MPC (Model Predictive Control) scheme has been implemented instead of present thermostatic/hysteretic control. This is a receding horizon approach. Capability of the proposed schemes has also been investigated.

  4. Residential radon and lung cancer incidence in a Danish cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bräuner, Elvira Vaclavik; Andersen, Claus Erik; Sørensen, Mette

    2012-01-01

    High-level occupational radon exposure is an established risk factor for lung cancer. We assessed the long-term association between residential radon and lung cancer risk using a prospective Danish cohort using 57,053 persons recruited during 1993–1997. We followed each cohort member for cancer...... occurrence until 27 June 2006, identifying 589 lung cancer cases. We traced residential addresses from 1 January 1971 until 27 June 2006 and calculated radon at each of these addresses using information from central databases regarding geology and house construction. Cox proportional hazards models were used...... to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for lung cancer risk associated with residential radon exposure with and without adjustment for sex, smoking variables, education, socio-economic status, occupation, body mass index, air pollution and consumption of fruit and alcohol...

  5. The Sensitivity of Residential Electricity Demand in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stranti Nastiti Kusumaningrum

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Since 2013, the residential electricity price for High VA (Volt-Ampere households has changed due to changes in pricing policies. This paper analyzes the responsiveness of residential electricity demand to the change in electricity prices and income among two different household groups (Low VA and High VA in 2011 and 2014. Using an electricity consumption model and the Quantile Regression method, the results show that residential electricity demand is price and income inelastic. Income elasticity is lower than price elasticity. Furthermore, the effects on price elasticity also found in the Low VA group, whose rate remained stable. At the same time, evidence proves the impact of the change in pricing policy on income elasticity remains unclear. This result implies that the government has to be more careful in regulating electricity prices for the low VA group, while maintaining economic stability.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6048

  6. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  7. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  8. Cutting Edge PBPK Models and Analyses: Providing the Basis for Future Modeling Efforts and Bridges to Emerging Toxicology Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane C. Caldwell

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK models are used for predictions of internal or target dose from environmental and pharmacologic chemical exposures. Their use in human risk assessment is dependent on the nature of databases (animal or human used to develop and test them, and includes extrapolations across species, experimental paradigms, and determination of variability of response within human populations. Integration of state-of-the science PBPK modeling with emerging computational toxicology models is critical for extrapolation between in vitro exposures, in vivo physiologic exposure, whole organism responses, and long-term health outcomes. This special issue contains papers that can provide the basis for future modeling efforts and provide bridges to emerging toxicology paradigms. In this overview paper, we present an overview of the field and introduction for these papers that includes discussions of model development, best practices, risk-assessment applications of PBPK models, and limitations and bridges of modeling approaches for future applications. Specifically, issues addressed include: (a increased understanding of human variability of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in the population, (b exploration of mode of action hypotheses (MOA, (c application of biological modeling in the risk assessment of individual chemicals and chemical mixtures, and (d identification and discussion of uncertainties in the modeling process.

  9. Current Animal Models of Postoperative Spine Infection and Potential Future Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eStavrakis

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Implant related infection following spine surgery is a devastating complication for patients and can potentially lead to significant neurological compromise, disability, morbidity, and even mortality. This paper provides an overview of the existing animal models of postoperative spine infection and highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model. In addition there is discussion regarding potential modifications to these animal models to better evaluate preventative and treatment strategies for this challenging complication. Current models are effective in simulating surgical procedures but fail to evaluate infection longitudinally using multiple techniques. Potential future modifications to these models include using advanced imaging technologies to evaluate infection, use of bioluminescent bacterial species, and testing of novel treatment strategies against multiple bacterial strains. There is potential to establish a postoperative spine infection model using smaller animals, such as mice, as these would be a more cost-effective screening tool for potential therapeutic interventions.

  10. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  11. The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I

    2016-09-19

    The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)-and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Peeling back the lithosphere: Controlling parameters, surface expressions and the future directions in delamination modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göğüş, Oğuz H.; Ueda, Kosuke

    2018-06-01

    Geodynamical models investigate the rheological and physical properties of the lithosphere that peels back (delaminates) from the upper-middle crust. Meanwhile, model predictions are used to relate to a set of observations in the geological context to the test the validity of delamination. Here, we review numerical and analogue models of delamination from these perspectives and provide a number of first-order topics which future modeling studies may address. Models suggest that the presence of the weak lower crust that resides between the strong mantle lithosphere (at least 100 times more viscous/stronger) and the strong upper crust is necessary to develop delamination. Lower crustal weakening may be induced by melt infiltration, shear heating or it naturally occurs through the jelly sandwich type strength profile of the continental lithosphere. The negative buoyancy of the lithosphere required to facilitate the delamination is induced by the pre-existing ocean subduction and/or the lower crustal eclogitization. Surface expression of the peeling back lithosphere has a distinct transient and migratory imprint on the crust, resulting in rapid surface uplift/subsidence, magmatism, heating and shortening/extension. New generation of geodynamical experiments can explain how different types of melting (e.g hydrated, dry melting) occurs with delamination. Reformation of the lithosphere after removal, three dimensional aspects, and the termination of the process are key investigation areas for future research. The robust model predictions, as with other geodynamic modeling studies should be reconciled with observations.

  13. Drivers' communicative interactions: on-road observations and modelling for integration in future automation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portouli, Evangelia; Nathanael, Dimitris; Marmaras, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Social interactions with other road users are an essential component of the driving activity and may prove critical in view of future automation systems; still up to now they have received only limited attention in the scientific literature. In this paper, it is argued that drivers base their anticipations about the traffic scene to a large extent on observations of social behaviour of other 'animate human-vehicles'. It is further argued that in cases of uncertainty, drivers seek to establish a mutual situational awareness through deliberate communicative interactions. A linguistic model is proposed for modelling these communicative interactions. Empirical evidence from on-road observations and analysis of concurrent running commentary by 25 experienced drivers support the proposed model. It is suggested that the integration of a social interactions layer based on illocutionary acts in future driving support and automation systems will improve their performance towards matching human driver's expectations. Practitioner Summary: Interactions between drivers on the road may play a significant role in traffic coordination. On-road observations and running commentaries are presented as empirical evidence to support a model of such interactions; incorporation of drivers' interactions in future driving support and automation systems may improve their performance towards matching driver's expectations.

  14. Physics-based distributed snow models in the operational arena: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstral, A. H.; Jonas, T.; Schirmer, M.; Helbig, N.

    2017-12-01

    The demand for modeling tools robust to climate change and weather extremes along with coincident increases in computational capabilities have led to an increase in the use of physics-based snow models in operational applications. Current operational applications include the WSL-SLF's across Switzerland, ASO's in California, and USDA-ARS's in Idaho. While the physics-based approaches offer many advantages there remain limitations and modeling challenges. The most evident limitation remains computation times that often limit forecasters to a single, deterministic model run. Other limitations however remain less conspicuous amidst the assumptions that these models require little to no calibration based on their foundation on physical principles. Yet all energy balance snow models seemingly contain parameterizations or simplifications of processes where validation data are scarce or present understanding is limited. At the research-basin scale where many of these models were developed these modeling elements may prove adequate. However when applied over large areas, spatially invariable parameterizations of snow albedo, roughness lengths and atmospheric exchange coefficients - all vital to determining the snowcover energy balance - become problematic. Moreover as we apply models over larger grid cells, the representation of sub-grid variability such as the snow-covered fraction adds to the challenges. Here, we will demonstrate some of the major sensitivities of distributed energy balance snow models to particular model constructs, the need for advanced and spatially flexible methods and parameterizations, and prompt the community for open dialogue and future collaborations to further modeling capabilities.

  15. Swimming pools and intra-city climates: Influences on residential ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While determinants such as household income, regional climate, water price, property size and household occupancy have been comprehensively studied and modelled, other determinants such as swimming pools and intra-city climates have not. This study examines residential water consumption in the City of Cape Town ...

  16. Convergence of Residential Gateway technology: analysis of evolutionary paths

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, den F.T.H.; Balm, M.; Jong, de C.M.; Kwaaitaal, J.J.B.

    2004-01-01

    A new OSI (Open Systems Interconnection)-based model is described that can be used for the classification of residential gateways (RG). It is applied to analyze current gateway solutions and to draw evolutionary paths for the mid-to-long term. It is concluded that set-top boxes and broadband modems

  17. Impact of residential PV adoption on Retail Electricity Rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Desmond W.H.; Adlakha, Sachin; Low, Steven H.; De Martini, Paul; Mani Chandy, K.

    2013-01-01

    The price of electricity supplied from home rooftop photo voltaic (PV) solar cells has fallen below the retail price of grid electricity in some areas. A number of residential households have an economic incentive to install rooftop PV systems and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. A significant portion of the costs incurred by utility companies are fixed costs which must be recovered even as consumption falls. Electricity rates must increase in order for utility companies to recover fixed costs from shrinking sales bases. Increasing rates will, in turn, result in even more economic incentives for customers to adopt rooftop PV. In this paper, we model this feedback between PV adoption and electricity rates and study its impact on future PV penetration and net-metering costs. We find that the most important parameter that determines whether this feedback has an effect is the fraction of customers who adopt PV in any year based solely on the money saved by doing so in that year, independent of the uncertainties of future years. These uncertainties include possible changes in rate structures such as the introduction of connection charges, the possibility of PV prices dropping significantly in the future, possible changes in tax incentives, and confidence in the reliability and maintainability of PV. -- Highlights: •Households who install PV reduce their electricity consumption from the grid. •Electricity rates must increase for utility companies to recover its fixed costs. •However, higher electricity rates give households more incentives to adopt PV. •We find that this feedback has significant impact on PV uptake only in later years. •Utility companies could lose a significant fraction of high consumption customers

  18. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  19. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

    2017-10-01

    We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

  20. A prospective economic assessment of residential PV self-consumption with batteries and its systemic effects, and the implications for public policies: the French case in 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Hyun Jin Julie

    2017-01-01

    Over the last decade, the price of PV modules has fallen largely due to the globalization of the PV sector. If residential PV systems coupled with batteries become economically competitive in the near future, end-users will be willing to switch to the self-consumption of PV electricity instead of using power from the network. If the transition of PV self-consumption in the residential sector occurs massively or suddenly, the national energy system would be faced with a radical change. This article analyses the economic feasibility of French residential PV systems combined with Li-ion batteries in 2030 to anticipate the possible change in future energy systems. It also includes a stakeholder analysis with respect to the PV self-consumption model to analyse the systemic effects of PV integration into the electricity system. Our study provides a theoretical explanation of the impact on the current electricity market and quantifies the expected impact on the most influential stakeholder group. The ultimate objective is to help policy-makers forecast possible scenarios for PV self-consumption so they can prepare for the future transition with strategic actions. By way of conclusion, we discuss the policy implications and elaborate policy recommendations based on the results of this study. (author)

  1. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

  2. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  3. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  4. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  5. Availability modeling approach for future circular colliders based on the LHC operation experience

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2096726; Apollonio, Andrea; Gutleber, Johannes; Sollander, Peter; Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Virtanen, Seppo Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Reaching the challenging integrated luminosity production goals of a future circular hadron collider (FCC-hh) and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) requires a thorough understanding of today’s most powerful high energy physics research infrastructure, the LHC accelerator complex at CERN. FCC-hh, a 4 times larger collider ring aims at delivering 10–20  ab$^-$$^1$ of integrated luminosity at 7 times higher collision energy. Since the identification of the key factors that impact availability and cost is far from obvious, a dedicated activity has been launched in the frame of the future circular collider study to develop models to study possible ways to optimize accelerator availability. This paper introduces the FCC reliability and availability study, which takes a fresh new look at assessing and modeling reliability and availability of particle accelerator infrastructures. The paper presents a probabilistic approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the machine operational cycle, schedule and availability for p...

  6. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  7. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva; Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten; Sohlenius, Gustav; Loefgren, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement

  8. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: tobias.lindborg@skb.se; Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Marine Sciences Centre, Umeaa (Sweden); Stroemgren, Maarten [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden); Sohlenius, Gustav [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)] Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.

  9. Future evolution in a backreaction model and the analogous scalar field cosmology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ali, Amna; Majumdar, A.S., E-mail: amnaalig@gmail.com, E-mail: archan@bose.res.in [S. N. Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences, Block JD, Sector-III, Salt Lake, Kolkata 700106 (India)

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the future evolution of the universe using the Buchert framework for averaged backreaction in the context of a two-domain partition of the universe. We show that this approach allows for the possibility of the global acceleration vanishing at a finite future time, provided that none of the subdomains accelerate individually. The model at large scales is analogously described in terms of a homogeneous scalar field emerging with a potential that is fixed and free from phenomenological parametrization. The dynamics of this scalar field is explored in the analogous FLRW cosmology. We use observational data from Type Ia Supernovae, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, and Cosmic Microwave Background to constrain the parameters of the model for a viable cosmology, providing the corresponding likelihood contours.

  10. The present and future of the most favoured inflationary models after Planck 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escudero, Miguel; Ramírez, Héctor; Boubekeur, Lotfi; Mena, Olga [Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), CSIC-Universitat de Valencia, Apartado de Correos 22085, E-46071 (Spain); Giusarma, Elena, E-mail: miguel.escudero@ific.uv.es, E-mail: hector.ramirez@ific.uv.es, E-mail: lboubekeur@usfq.edu.ec, E-mail: elena.giusarma@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: olga.mena@ific.uv.es [Physics Department and INFN, Università di Roma ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy)

    2016-02-01

    The value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r in the region allowed by the latest Planck 2015 measurements can be associated to a large variety of inflationary models. We discuss here the potential of future Cosmic Microwave Background cosmological observations in disentangling among the possible theoretical scenarios allowed by our analyses of current Planck temperature and polarization data. Rather than focusing only on r, we focus as well on the running of the primordial power spectrum, α{sub s} and the running thereof, β{sub s}. If future cosmological measurements, as those from the COrE mission, confirm the current best-fit value for β{sub s} ∼> 10{sup −2} as the preferred one, it will be possible to rule-out the most favoured inflationary models.

  11. Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

    2014-05-01

    Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under

  12. Application of an estimation model to predict future transients at US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbert, B.P.; Blackman, H.S.

    1987-01-01

    A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  13. Characterizing the EPODE logic model: unravelling the past and informing the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Koperen, T M; Jebb, S A; Summerbell, C D; Visscher, T L S; Romon, M; Borys, J M; Seidell, J C

    2013-02-01

    EPODE ('Ensemble Prévenons l'Obésité De Enfants' or 'Together let's Prevent Childhood Obesity') is a large-scale, centrally coordinated, capacity-building approach for communities to implement effective and sustainable strategies to prevent childhood obesity. Since 2004, EPODE has been implemented in over 500 communities in six countries. Although based on emergent practice and scientific knowledge, EPODE, as many community programs, lacks a logic model depicting key elements of the approach. The objective of this study is to gain insight in the dynamics and key elements of EPODE and to represent these in a schematic logic model. EPODE's process manuals and documents were collected and interviews were held with professionals involved in the planning and delivery of EPODE. Retrieved data were coded, themed and placed in a four-level logic model. With input from international experts, this model was scaled down to a concise logic model covering four critical components: political commitment, public and private partnerships, social marketing and evaluation. The EPODE logic model presented here can be used as a reference for future and follow-up research; to support future implementation of EPODE in communities; as a tool in the engagement of stakeholders; and to guide the construction of a locally tailored evaluation plan. © 2012 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2012 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  14. Numerical Modeling of Climate-Chemistry Connections: Recent Developments and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Jöckel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the current state and development of different numerical model classes that are used to simulate the global atmospheric system, particularly Earth’s climate and climate-chemistry connections. The focus is on Chemistry-Climate Models. In general, these serve to examine dynamical and chemical processes in the Earth atmosphere, their feedback, and interaction with climate. Such models have been established as helpful tools in addition to analyses of observational data. Definitions of the global model classes are given and their capabilities as well as weaknesses are discussed. Examples of scientific studies indicate how numerical exercises contribute to an improved understanding of atmospheric behavior. There, the focus is on synergistic investigations combining observations and model results. The possible