WorldWideScience

Sample records for model parameters

  1. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  2. Response model parameter linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrett, M.L.D.

    2015-01-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of equating observed scores on different test forms. This thesis argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require

  3. Linking Item Response Model Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J; Barrett, Michelle D

    2016-09-01

    With a few exceptions, the problem of linking item response model parameters from different item calibrations has been conceptualized as an instance of the problem of test equating scores on different test forms. This paper argues, however, that the use of item response models does not require any test score equating. Instead, it involves the necessity of parameter linking due to a fundamental problem inherent in the formal nature of these models-their general lack of identifiability. More specifically, item response model parameters need to be linked to adjust for the different effects of the identifiability restrictions used in separate item calibrations. Our main theorems characterize the formal nature of these linking functions for monotone, continuous response models, derive their specific shapes for different parameterizations of the 3PL model, and show how to identify them from the parameter values of the common items or persons in different linking designs.

  4. Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

  5. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treml, C. A. (Christine A.); Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  6. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian form...

  7. Parameter identification in the logistic STAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekner, Line Elvstrøm; Nejstgaard, Emil

    We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter is that th......We propose a new and simple parametrization of the so-called speed of transition parameter of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. The new parametrization highlights that a consequence of the well-known identification problem of the speed of transition parameter...

  8. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  9. Application of lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil. Subsequently, the assembly of the dynamic stiffness matrix for the foundation is considered, and the solution for obtaining the steady state response, when using lumped-parameter models is given. (au)

  10. CHAMP: Changepoint Detection Using Approximate Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    form (with independent emissions or otherwise), in which parameter estimates are available via means such as maximum likelihood fit, MCMC , or sample ...counterparts, including the ability to generate a full posterior distribution over changepoint locations and offering a natural way to incorporate prior... sample consensus method. Our modifications also remove a significant restriction on model definition when detecting parameter changes within a single

  11. Exploiting intrinsic fluctuations to identify model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph; Sahle, Sven; Pahle, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Parameterisation of kinetic models plays a central role in computational systems biology. Besides the lack of experimental data of high enough quality, some of the biggest challenges here are identification issues. Model parameters can be structurally non-identifiable because of functional relationships. Noise in measured data is usually considered to be a nuisance for parameter estimation. However, it turns out that intrinsic fluctuations in particle numbers can make parameters identifiable that were previously non-identifiable. The authors present a method to identify model parameters that are structurally non-identifiable in a deterministic framework. The method takes time course recordings of biochemical systems in steady state or transient state as input. Often a functional relationship between parameters presents itself by a one-dimensional manifold in parameter space containing parameter sets of optimal goodness. Although the system's behaviour cannot be distinguished on this manifold in a deterministic framework it might be distinguishable in a stochastic modelling framework. Their method exploits this by using an objective function that includes a measure for fluctuations in particle numbers. They show on three example models, immigration-death, gene expression and Epo-EpoReceptor interaction, that this resolves the non-identifiability even in the case of measurement noise with known amplitude. The method is applied to partially observed recordings of biochemical systems with measurement noise. It is simple to implement and it is usually very fast to compute. This optimisation can be realised in a classical or Bayesian fashion.

  12. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Karperien, Hermanus Bernardus Johannes; Post, Janine Nicole; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Langerak, Romanus; André, Étienne; Frehse, Goran

    2014-01-01

    ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling) is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions

  13. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  14. Application of lumped-parameter models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1.1). Subse......This technical report concerns the lumped-parameter models for a suction caisson with a ratio between skirt length and foundation diameter equal to 1/2, embedded into an viscoelastic soil. The models are presented for three different values of the shear modulus of the subsoil (section 1...

  15. Setting Parameters for Biological Models With ANIMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Schivo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available ANIMO (Analysis of Networks with Interactive MOdeling is a software for modeling biological networks, such as e.g. signaling, metabolic or gene networks. An ANIMO model is essentially the sum of a network topology and a number of interaction parameters. The topology describes the interactions between biological entities in form of a graph, while the parameters determine the speed of occurrence of such interactions. When a mismatch is observed between the behavior of an ANIMO model and experimental data, we want to update the model so that it explains the new data. In general, the topology of a model can be expanded with new (known or hypothetical nodes, and enables it to match experimental data. However, the unrestrained addition of new parts to a model causes two problems: models can become too complex too fast, to the point of being intractable, and too many parts marked as "hypothetical" or "not known" make a model unrealistic. Even if changing the topology is normally the easier task, these problems push us to try a better parameter fit as a first step, and resort to modifying the model topology only as a last resource. In this paper we show the support added in ANIMO to ease the task of expanding the knowledge on biological networks, concentrating in particular on the parameter settings.

  16. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  17. Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Raol, JR; Singh, J

    2004-01-01

    Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor

  18. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  19. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  20. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  1. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  2. Advances in Modelling, System Identification and Parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    models determined from flight test data by using parameter estimation methods find extensive use in design/modification of flight control systems, high fidelity flight simulators and evaluation of handling qualitites of aircraft and rotorcraft. R K Mehra et al present new algorithms and results for flutter tests and adaptive notching ...

  3. A lumped parameter model of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Jose H.; Florido, Pablo C.; Bruzzone, H.; Clausse, Alejandro

    1999-01-01

    A lumped parameter model to estimate neutron emission of a plasma focus (PF) device is developed. The dynamic of the current sheet is calculated using a snowplow model, and the neutron production with the thermal fusion cross section for a deuterium filling gas. The results were contrasted as a function of the filling pressure with experimental measurements of a 3.68 KJ Mather-type PF. (author)

  4. One parameter model potential for noble metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrees, M.; Khwaja, F.A.; Razmi, M.S.K.

    1981-08-01

    A phenomenological one parameter model potential which includes s-d hybridization and core-core exchange contributions is proposed for noble metals. A number of interesting properties like liquid metal resistivities, band gaps, thermoelectric powers and ion-ion interaction potentials are calculated for Cu, Ag and Au. The results obtained are in better agreement with experiment than the ones predicted by the other model potentials in the literature. (author)

  5. Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitbread, T.; Yeates, A. R.; Muñoz-Jaramillo, A.; Petrie, G. J. D.

    2017-11-01

    Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.

  6. Analisis Perbandingan Parameter Transformasi Antar Itrf Hasil Hitungan Kuadrat Terkecil Model Helmert 14-parameter Dengan Parameter Standar Iers

    OpenAIRE

    Fadly, Romi; Dewi, Citra

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to compare the 14 transformation parameters between ITRF from computation result using the Helmert 14-parameter models with IERS standard parameters. The transforma- tion parameters are calculated from the coordinates and velocities of ITRF05 to ITRF00 epoch 2000.00, and from ITRF08 to ITRF05 epoch 2005.00 for respectively transformation models. The transformation parameters are compared to the IERS standard parameters, then tested the signifi- cance of the d...

  7. Constant-parameter capture-recapture models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownie, C.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1986-01-01

    Jolly (1982, Biometrics 38, 301-321) presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Where appropriate, because of the reduced number of parameters, these models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model. The tests to compare models given by Jolly do not make complete use of the data, and we present here the appropriate modifications, and also indicate how to carry out goodness-of-fit tests which utilize individual capture history information. We also describe analogous models for the case where young and adult animals are tagged. The availability of computer programs to perform the analysis is noted, and examples are given using output from these programs.

  8. Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj

    This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...

  9. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  10. Lumped Parameters Model of a Crescent Pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Rundo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the lumped parameters model of an internal gear crescent pump with relief valve, able to estimate the steady-state flow-pressure characteristic and the pressure ripple. The approach is based on the identification of three variable control volumes regardless of the number of gear teeth. The model has been implemented in the commercial environment LMS Amesim with the development of customized components. Specific attention has been paid to the leakage passageways, some of them affected by the deformation of the cover plate under the action of the delivery pressure. The paper reports the finite element method analysis of the cover for the evaluation of the deflection and the validation through a contactless displacement transducer. Another aspect described in this study is represented by the computational fluid dynamics analysis of the relief valve, whose results have been used for tuning the lumped parameters model. Finally, the validation of the entire model of the pump is presented in terms of steady-state flow rate and of pressure oscillations.

  11. Modeling of Parameters of Subcritical Assembly SAD

    CERN Document Server

    Petrochenkov, S; Puzynin, I

    2005-01-01

    The accepted conceptual design of the experimental Subcritical Assembly in Dubna (SAD) is based on the MOX core with a nominal unit capacity of 25 kW (thermal). This corresponds to the multiplication coefficient $k_{\\rm eff} =0.95$ and accelerator beam power 1 kW. A subcritical assembly driven with the existing 660 MeV proton accelerator at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research has been modelled in order to make choice of the optimal parameters for the future experiments. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate neutron spectra, energy deposition and doses calculations. Some of the calculation results are presented in the paper.

  12. Parameter estimation in fractional diffusion models

    CERN Document Server

    Kubilius, Kęstutis; Ralchenko, Kostiantyn

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to parameter estimation in diffusion models involving fractional Brownian motion and related processes. For many years now, standard Brownian motion has been (and still remains) a popular model of randomness used to investigate processes in the natural sciences, financial markets, and the economy. The substantial limitation in the use of stochastic diffusion models with Brownian motion is due to the fact that the motion has independent increments, and, therefore, the random noise it generates is “white,” i.e., uncorrelated. However, many processes in the natural sciences, computer networks and financial markets have long-term or short-term dependences, i.e., the correlations of random noise in these processes are non-zero, and slowly or rapidly decrease with time. In particular, models of financial markets demonstrate various kinds of memory and usually this memory is modeled by fractional Brownian diffusion. Therefore, the book constructs diffusion models with memory and provides s...

  13. Moose models with vanishing S parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casalbuoni, R.; De Curtis, S.; Dominici, D.

    2004-01-01

    In the linear moose framework, which naturally emerges in deconstruction models, we show that there is a unique solution for the vanishing of the S parameter at the lowest order in the weak interactions. We consider an effective gauge theory based on K SU(2) gauge groups, K+1 chiral fields, and electroweak groups SU(2) L and U(1) Y at the ends of the chain of the moose. S vanishes when a link in the moose chain is cut. As a consequence one has to introduce a dynamical nonlocal field connecting the two ends of the moose. Then the model acquires an additional custodial symmetry which protects this result. We examine also the possibility of a strong suppression of S through an exponential behavior of the link couplings as suggested by the Randall Sundrum metric

  14. Models for setting ATM parameter values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Søren; Gravey, A.; Romæuf, L.

    1996-01-01

    presents approximate methods and discusses their applicability. We then discuss the problem of obtaining traffic characteristic values for a connection that has crossed a series of switching nodes. This problem is particularly relevant for the traffic contract components corresponding to ICIs...... (CDV) tolerance(s). The values taken by these traffic parameters characterize the so-called ''Worst Case Traffic'' that is used by CAC procedures for accepting a new connection and allocating resources to it. Conformance to the negotiated traffic characteristics is defined, at the ingress User...... essential to set traffic characteristic values that are relevant to the considered cell stream, and that ensure that the amount of non-conforming traffic is small. Using a queueing model representation for the GCRA formalism, several methods are available for choosing the traffic characteristics. This paper...

  15. Dengue human infection model performance parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endy, Timothy P

    2014-06-15

    Dengue is a global health problem and of concern to travelers and deploying military personnel with development and licensure of an effective tetravalent dengue vaccine a public health priority. The dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes. Illness manifests across a clinical spectrum with severe disease characterized by intravascular volume depletion and hemorrhage. DENV illness results from a complex interaction of viral properties and host immune responses. Dengue vaccine development efforts are challenged by immunologic complexity, lack of an adequate animal model of disease, absence of an immune correlate of protection, and only partially informative immunogenicity assays. A dengue human infection model (DHIM) will be an essential tool in developing potential dengue vaccines or antivirals. The potential performance parameters needed for a DHIM to support vaccine or antiviral candidates are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Dimensionality reduction of RKHS model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taouali, Okba; Elaissi, Ilyes; Messaoud, Hassani

    2015-07-01

    This paper proposes a new method to reduce the parameter number of models developed in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). In fact, this number is equal to the number of observations used in the learning phase which is assumed to be high. The proposed method entitled Reduced Kernel Partial Least Square (RKPLS) consists on approximating the retained latent components determined using the Kernel Partial Least Square (KPLS) method by their closest observation vectors. The paper proposes the design and the comparative study of the proposed RKPLS method and the Support Vector Machines on Regression (SVR) technique. The proposed method is applied to identify a nonlinear Process Trainer PT326 which is a physical process available in our laboratory. Moreover as a thermal process with large time response may help record easily effective observations which contribute to model identification. Compared to the SVR technique, the results from the proposed RKPLS method are satisfactory. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Clustering reveals limits of parameter identifiability in multi-parameter models of biochemical dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienałtowski, Karol; Włodarczyk, Michał; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Komorowski, Michał

    2015-09-29

    Compared to engineering or physics problems, dynamical models in quantitative biology typically depend on a relatively large number of parameters. Progress in developing mathematics to manipulate such multi-parameter models and so enable their efficient interplay with experiments has been slow. Existing solutions are significantly limited by model size. In order to simplify analysis of multi-parameter models a method for clustering of model parameters is proposed. It is based on a derived statistically meaningful measure of similarity between groups of parameters. The measure quantifies to what extend changes in values of some parameters can be compensated by changes in values of other parameters. The proposed methodology provides a natural mathematical language to precisely communicate and visualise effects resulting from compensatory changes in values of parameters. As a results, a relevant insight into identifiability analysis and experimental planning can be obtained. Analysis of NF-κB and MAPK pathway models shows that highly compensative parameters constitute clusters consistent with the network topology. The method applied to examine an exceptionally rich set of published experiments on the NF-κB dynamics reveals that the experiments jointly ensure identifiability of only 60% of model parameters. The method indicates which further experiments should be performed in order to increase the number of identifiable parameters. We currently lack methods that simplify broadly understood analysis of multi-parameter models. The introduced tools depict mutually compensative effects between parameters to provide insight regarding role of individual parameters, identifiability and experimental design. The method can also find applications in related methodological areas of model simplification and parameters estimation.

  18. Sample Size and Item Parameter Estimation Precision When Utilizing the One-Parameter "Rasch" Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between sample size and item parameter estimation precision when utilizing the one-parameter model. Item parameter estimates are examined relative to "true" values by evaluating the decline in root mean squared deviation (RMSD) and the number of outliers as sample size increases. This occurs across…

  19. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  20. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  1. Study on Parameters Modeling of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong YAN

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking the advantage of the current massive monitoring data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA system of wind farm, it is of important significance for anomaly detection, early warning and fault diagnosis to build the data model of state parameters of wind turbines (WTs. The operational conditions and the relationships between the state parameters of wind turbines are complex. It is difficult to establish the model of state parameter accurately, and the modeling method of state parameters of wind turbines considering parameter selection is proposed. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristic of SCADA data, a reasonable range of data and monitoring parameters are chosen. Secondly, neural network algorithm is adapted, and the selection method of input parameters in the model is presented. Generator bearing temperature and cooling air temperature are regarded as target parameters, and the two models are built and input parameters of the models are selected, respectively. Finally, the parameter selection method in this paper and the method using genetic algorithm-partial least square (GA-PLS are analyzed comparatively, and the results show that the proposed methods are correct and effective. Furthermore, the modeling of two parameters illustrate that the method in this paper can applied to other state parameters of wind turbines.

  2. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... was applied.Capture zone modelling was conducted on a synthetic stationary 3-dimensional flow problem involving river, surface and groundwater flow. Simulated capture zones were illustrated as likelihood maps and compared with a deterministic capture zones derived from a reference model. The results showed...

  3. WINKLER'S SINGLE-PARAMETER SUBGRADE MODEL FROM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    SUBGRADE MODELING. Asrat Worku. Department of ... The models give consistently larger stiffness for the Winkler springs as compared to previously proposed similar continuum-based models that ignore the lateral stresses. ...... (ν = 0.25 and E = 40MPa); (b) a medium stiff clay (ν = 0.45 and E = 50MPa). In contrast to this, ...

  4. Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria. To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE and its three components (alpha, beta and r as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC are calculated. With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter. In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria

  5. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Karr

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

  6. Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A challenge during the development of models for simulation of the automotive Selective Catalytic Reduction catalyst is the parameter estimation of the kinetic parameters, which can be time consuming and problematic. The parameter estimation is often carried out on small-scale reactor tests...

  7. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  8. Estimation of Parameters in Latent Class Models with Constraints on the Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, James A.

    This paper reviews the application of the EM Algorithm to marginal maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the latent class model and extends the algorithm to the case where there are monotone homogeneity constraints on the item parameters. It is shown that the EM algorithm can be used to obtain marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the…

  9. Incremental parameter estimation of kinetic metabolic network models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Gengjie

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An efficient and reliable parameter estimation method is essential for the creation of biological models using ordinary differential equation (ODE. Most of the existing estimation methods involve finding the global minimum of data fitting residuals over the entire parameter space simultaneously. Unfortunately, the associated computational requirement often becomes prohibitively high due to the large number of parameters and the lack of complete parameter identifiability (i.e. not all parameters can be uniquely identified. Results In this work, an incremental approach was applied to the parameter estimation of ODE models from concentration time profiles. Particularly, the method was developed to address a commonly encountered circumstance in the modeling of metabolic networks, where the number of metabolic fluxes (reaction rates exceeds that of metabolites (chemical species. Here, the minimization of model residuals was performed over a subset of the parameter space that is associated with the degrees of freedom in the dynamic flux estimation from the concentration time-slopes. The efficacy of this method was demonstrated using two generalized mass action (GMA models, where the method significantly outperformed single-step estimations. In addition, an extension of the estimation method to handle missing data is also presented. Conclusions The proposed incremental estimation method is able to tackle the issue on the lack of complete parameter identifiability and to significantly reduce the computational efforts in estimating model parameters, which will facilitate kinetic modeling of genome-scale cellular metabolism in the future.

  10. An approach to adjustment of relativistic mean field model parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayram Tuncay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Relativistic Mean Field (RMF model with a small number of adjusted parameters is powerful tool for correct predictions of various ground-state nuclear properties of nuclei. Its success for describing nuclear properties of nuclei is directly related with adjustment of its parameters by using experimental data. In the present study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN method which mimics brain functionality has been employed for improvement of the RMF model parameters. In particular, the understanding capability of the ANN method for relations between the RMF model parameters and their predictions for binding energies (BEs of 58Ni and 208Pb have been found in agreement with the literature values.

  11. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  12. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  13. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  14. WATGIS: A GIS-Based Lumped Parameter Water Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

    2002-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)­based, lumped parameter water quality model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal nitrogen­loading patterns for lower coastal plain watersheds in eastern North Carolina. The model uses a spatially distributed delivery ratio (DR) parameter to account for nitrogen retention or loss along a drainage network. Delivery...

  15. Exploring the interdependencies between parameters in a material model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Fermen-Coker, Muge

    2014-01-01

    A method is investigated to reduce the number of numerical parameters in a material model for a solid. The basis of the method is to detect interdependencies between parameters within a class of materials of interest. The method is demonstrated for a set of material property data for iron and steel using the Johnson-Cook plasticity model.

  16. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  17. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  18. Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2013-09-01

    The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

  19. Estimation of shape model parameters for 3D surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erbou, Søren Gylling Hemmingsen; Darkner, Sune; Fripp, Jurgen

    2008-01-01

    is applied to a database of 3D surfaces from a section of the porcine pelvic bone extracted from 33 CT scans. A leave-one-out validation shows that the parameters of the first 3 modes of the shape model can be predicted with a mean difference within [-0.01,0.02] from the true mean, with a standard deviation......Statistical shape models are widely used as a compact way of representing shape variation. Fitting a shape model to unseen data enables characterizing the data in terms of the model parameters. In this paper a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme is proposed to estimate shape model parameters of 3D...... surfaces using distance maps, which enables the estimation of model parameters without the requirement of point correspondence. For applications with acquisition limitations such as speed and cost, this formulation enables the fitting of a statistical shape model to arbitrarily sampled data. The method...

  20. Determination of the Corona model parameters with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmet, Nayir; Bekir, Karlik; Arif, Hashimov

    2005-01-01

    Full text : The aim of this study is to calculate new model parameters taking into account the corona of electrical transmission line wires. For this purpose, a neural network modeling proposed for the corona frequent characteristics modeling. Then this model was compared with the other model developed at the Polytechnic Institute of Saint Petersburg. The results of development of the specified corona model for calculation of its influence on the wave processes in multi-wires line and determination of its parameters are submitted. Results of obtained calculation equations are brought for electrical transmission line with allowance for superficial effect in the ground and wires with reference to developed corona model

  1. Spatio-temporal modeling of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Han-Xiong

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to provide a brief review of the previous work on model reduction and identifi cation of distributed parameter systems (DPS), and develop new spatio-temporal models and their relevant identifi cation approaches. In this book, a systematic overview and classifi cation on the modeling of DPS is presented fi rst, which includes model reduction, parameter estimation and system identifi cation. Next, a class of block-oriented nonlinear systems in traditional lumped parameter systems (LPS) is extended to DPS, which results in the spatio-temporal Wiener and Hammerstein s

  2. Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johansen, Søren

    1999-01-01

    Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and anot...... be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities. ...

  3. Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hill, Mary Cole; Østerby, Ole

    2003-01-01

    In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation...... correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter...

  4. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  5. Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Ramírez Gómez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software.

  6. Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

    2018-02-01

    Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

  7. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines......-parameter models with respect to the prediction of the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a footing....

  8. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  9. A method for model identification and parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambach, M; Heinkenschloss, M; Herty, M

    2013-01-01

    We propose and analyze a new method for the identification of a parameter-dependent model that best describes a given system. This problem arises, for example, in the mathematical modeling of material behavior where several competing constitutive equations are available to describe a given material. In this case, the models are differential equations that arise from the different constitutive equations, and the unknown parameters are coefficients in the constitutive equations. One has to determine the best-suited constitutive equations for a given material and application from experiments. We assume that the true model is one of the N possible parameter-dependent models. To identify the correct model and the corresponding parameters, we can perform experiments, where for each experiment we prescribe an input to the system and observe a part of the system state. Our approach consists of two stages. In the first stage, for each pair of models we determine the experiment, i.e. system input and observation, that best differentiates between the two models, and measure the distance between the two models. Then we conduct N(N − 1) or, depending on the approach taken, N(N − 1)/2 experiments and use the result of the experiments as well as the previously computed model distances to determine the true model. We provide sufficient conditions on the model distances and measurement errors which guarantee that our approach identifies the correct model. Given the model, we identify the corresponding model parameters in the second stage. The problem in the second stage is a standard parameter estimation problem and we use a method suitable for the given application. We illustrate our approach on three examples, including one where the models are elliptic partial differential equations with different parameterized right-hand sides and an example where we identify the constitutive equation in a problem from computational viscoplasticity. (paper)

  10. Optimal parameters for the FFA-Beddoes dynamic stall model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Mert, M. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Madsen, H.A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Unsteady aerodynamic effects, like dynamic stall, must be considered in calculation of dynamic forces for wind turbines. Models incorporated in aero-elastic programs are of semi-empirical nature. Resulting aerodynamic forces therefore depend on values used for the semi-empiricial parameters. In this paper a study of finding appropriate parameters to use with the Beddoes-Leishman model is discussed. Minimisation of the `tracking error` between results from 2D wind tunnel tests and simulation with the model is used to find optimum values for the parameters. The resulting optimum parameters show a large variation from case to case. Using these different sets of optimum parameters in the calculation of blade vibrations, give rise to quite different predictions of aerodynamic damping which is discussed. (au)

  11. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  12. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...

  13. Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain irrigation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert J.; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  14. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presen- ted in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  15. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presented in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the model parameters in one basis from those defined in another basis for the same system are also presented.

  16. Prior distributions for item parameters in IRT models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matteucci, M.; S. Mignani, Prof.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this article is on the choice of suitable prior distributions for item parameters within item response theory (IRT) models. In particular, the use of empirical prior distributions for item parameters is proposed. Firstly, regression trees are implemented in order to build informative

  17. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  18. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  19. Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.

  20. A compact cyclic plasticity model with parameter evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen; Tidemann, L.

    2017-01-01

    by the Armstrong–Frederick model, contained as a special case of the present model for a particular choice of the shape parameter. In contrast to previous work, where shaping the stress-strain loops is derived from multiple internal stress states, this effect is here represented by a single parameter......The paper presents a compact model for cyclic plasticity based on energy in terms of external and internal variables, and plastic yielding described by kinematic hardening and a flow potential with an additive term controlling the nonlinear cyclic hardening. The model is basically described by five...... parameters: external and internal stiffness, a yield stress and a limiting ultimate stress, and finally a parameter controlling the gradual development of plastic deformation. Calibration against numerous experimental results indicates that typically larger plastic strains develop than predicted...

  1. Parameter Estimation for the Thurstone Case III Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, David B.; Chaiy, Seoil

    1982-01-01

    The ability of three estimation criteria to recover parameters of the Thurstone Case V and Case III models from comparative judgment data was investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. Significant differences in recovery are shown to exist. (Author/JKS)

  2. Improved parameter estimation for hydrological models using weighted object functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Zaadnoordijk, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses the sensitivity of calibration of hydrological model parameters to different objective functions. Several functions are defined with weights depending upon the hydrological background. These are compared with an objective function based upon kriging. Calibration is applied to

  3. Partial sum approaches to mathematical parameters of some growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkmaz, Mehmet

    2016-04-01

    Growth model is fitted by evaluating the mathematical parameters, a, b and c. In this study, the method of partial sums were used. For finding the mathematical parameters, firstly three partial sums were used, secondly four partial sums were used, thirdly five partial sums were used and finally N partial sums were used. The purpose of increasing the partial decomposition is to produce a better phase model which gives a better expected value by minimizing error sum of squares in the interval used.

  4. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  5. Luminescence model with quantum impact parameter for low energy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Cruz-Galindo, H S; Martínez-Davalos, A; Belmont-Moreno, E; Galindo, S

    2002-01-01

    We have modified an analytical model of induced light production by energetic ions interacting in scintillating materials. The original model is based on the distribution of energy deposited by secondary electrons produced along the ion's track. The range of scattered electrons, and thus the energy distribution, depends on a classical impact parameter between the electron and the ion's track. The only adjustable parameter of the model is the quenching density rho sub q. The modification here presented, consists in proposing a quantum impact parameter that leads to a better fit of the model to the experimental data at low incident ion energies. The light output response of CsI(Tl) detectors to low energy ions (<3 MeV/A) is fitted with the modified model and comparison is made to the original model.

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  7. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  8. SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Houska

    Full Text Available The choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool, an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI. We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.

  9. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  10. Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....

  11. Lumped-Parameter Models for Windturbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computationalmodel significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  12. Parameter estimation and model selection in computational biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Lillacci

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.

  13. Development of new model for high explosives detonation parameters calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremić Radun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The simple semi-empirical model for calculation of detonation pressure and velocity for CHNO explosives has been developed, which is based on experimental values of detonation parameters. Model uses Avakyan’s method for determination of detonation products' chemical composition, and is applicable in wide range of densities. Compared with the well-known Kamlet's method and numerical model of detonation based on BKW EOS, the calculated values from proposed model have significantly better accuracy.

  14. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  15. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  16. Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, W.B.; Oeh, U.; Klein, W.; Blanchardon, E.; Puncher, M.; Leggett, R.W.; Breustedt, B.; Nosske, D.; Lopez, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5. and 2.5. percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS. (authors)

  17. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  18. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  19. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  20. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  1. Sensor placement for calibration of spatially varying model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Paromita; Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a sensor placement optimization framework for the calibration of spatially varying model parameters. To account for the randomness of the calibration parameters over space and across specimens, the spatially varying parameter is represented as a random field. Based on this representation, Bayesian calibration of spatially varying parameter is investigated. To reduce the required computational effort during Bayesian calibration, the original computer simulation model is substituted with Kriging surrogate models based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the model response and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) of the spatially varying parameters. A sensor placement optimization problem is then formulated based on the Bayesian calibration to maximize the expected information gain measured by the expected Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence. The optimization problem needs to evaluate the expected K-L divergence repeatedly which requires repeated calibration of the spatially varying parameter, and this significantly increases the computational effort of solving the optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, an approximation for the posterior distribution is employed within the optimization problem to facilitate the identification of the optimal sensor locations using the simulated annealing algorithm. A heat transfer problem with spatially varying thermal conductivity is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Procedures for parameter estimates of computational models for localized failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iacono, C.

    2007-01-01

    In the last years, many computational models have been developed for tensile fracture in concrete. However, their reliability is related to the correct estimate of the model parameters, not all directly measurable during laboratory tests. Hence, the development of inverse procedures is needed, that

  3. Geometry parameters for musculoskeletal modelling of the shoulder system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Helm, F C; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.); Pronk, G M; Van der Woude, L H; Rozendal, R H

    A dynamical finite-element model of the shoulder mechanism consisting of thorax, clavicula, scapula and humerus is outlined. The parameters needed for the model are obtained in a cadaver experiment consisting of both shoulders of seven cadavers. In this paper, in particular, the derivation of

  4. A software for parameter estimation in dynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yuceer

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in dynamic systems is to determine parameters in an equation used to represent experimental data. The goal is to determine the values of model parameters that provide the best fit to measured data, generally based on some type of least squares or maximum likelihood criterion. In the most general case, this requires the solution of a nonlinear and frequently non-convex optimization problem. Some of the available software lack in generality, while others do not provide ease of use. A user-interactive parameter estimation software was needed for identifying kinetic parameters. In this work we developed an integration based optimization approach to provide a solution to such problems. For easy implementation of the technique, a parameter estimation software (PARES has been developed in MATLAB environment. When tested with extensive example problems from literature, the suggested approach is proven to provide good agreement between predicted and observed data within relatively less computing time and iterations.

  5. Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

    2017-04-01

    Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10

  6. Ground level enhancement (GLE) energy spectrum parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, G.; Wu, S.

    2017-12-01

    We study the ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 with the four energy spectra parameters, the normalization parameter C, low-energy power-law slope γ 1, high-energy power-law slope γ 2, and break energy E0, obtained by Mewaldt et al. 2012 who fit the observations to the double power-law equation. we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary (IP) shocks and another one without strong acceleration according to the condition of solar eruptions. We next fit the four parameters with solar event conditions to get models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. So that we would establish a model of energy spectrum for GLEs for the future space weather prediction.

  7. Determination of appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ik-Kyu; Kim, Jong-Hwan; Min, Beong-Tae; Hong, Seong-Wan

    2008-03-15

    The purpose of the present work is to use experiments that have been performed at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe during about the last ten years for determining the most appropriate models and parameters for premixing calculations. The results of a QUEOS experiment are used to fix the parameters concerning heat transfer. The QUEOS experiments are especially suited for this purpose as they have been performed with small hot solid spheres. Therefore the area of heat exchange is known. With the heat transfer parameters fixed in this way, a PREMIX experiment is recalculated. These experiments have been performed with molten alumina (Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) as a simulant of corium. Its initial temperature is 2600 K. With these experiments the models and parameters for jet and drop break-up are tested.

  8. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  9. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  10. Modeling Chinese ionospheric layer parameters based on EOF analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, You; Wan, Weixing

    2016-04-01

    Using 24-ionosonde observations in and around China during the 20th solar cycle, an assimilative model is constructed to map the ionospheric layer parameters (foF2, hmF2, M(3000)F2, and foE) over China based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, we decompose the background maps from the International Reference Ionosphere model 2007 (IRI-07) into different EOF modes. The obtained EOF modes consist of two factors: the EOF patterns and the corresponding EOF amplitudes. These two factors individually reflect the spatial distributions (e.g., the latitudinal dependence such as the equatorial ionization anomaly structure and the longitude structure with east-west difference) and temporal variations on different time scales (e.g., solar cycle, annual, semiannual, and diurnal variations) of the layer parameters. Then, the EOF patterns and long-term observations of ionosondes are assimilated to get the observed EOF amplitudes, which are further used to construct the Chinese Ionospheric Maps (CIMs) of the layer parameters. In contrast with the IRI-07 model, the mapped CIMs successfully capture the inherent temporal and spatial variations of the ionospheric layer parameters. Finally, comparison of the modeled (EOF and IRI-07 model) and observed values reveals that the EOF model reproduces the observation with smaller root-mean-square errors and higher linear correlation co- efficients. In addition, IRI discrepancy at the low latitude especially for foF2 is effectively removed by EOF model.

  11. Parameters and variables appearing in repository design models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, R.H.; Wart, R.J.

    1983-12-01

    This report defines the parameters and variables appearing in repository design models and presents typical values and ranges of values of each. Areas covered by this report include thermal, geomechanical, and coupled stress and flow analyses in rock. Particular emphasis is given to conductivity, radiation, and convection parameters for thermal analysis and elastic constants, failure criteria, creep laws, and joint properties for geomechanical analysis. The data in this report were compiled to help guide the selection of values of parameters and variables to be used in code benchmarking. 102 references, 33 figures, 51 tables

  12. A lumped parameter, low dimension model of heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanoh, Hideaki; Furushoo, Junji; Masubuchi, Masami

    1980-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of investigation of the distributed parameter model, the difference model, and the model of the method of weighted residuals for heat exchangers. By the method of weighted residuals (MWR), the opposite flow heat exchanger system is approximated by low dimension, lumped parameter model. By assuming constant specific heat, constant density, the same form of tube cross-section, the same form of the surface of heat exchange, uniform flow velocity, the linear relation of heat transfer to flow velocity, liquid heat carrier, and the thermal insulation of liquid from outside, fundamental equations are obtained. The experimental apparatus was made of acrylic resin. The response of the temperature at the exit of first liquid to the variation of the flow rate of second liquid was measured and compared with the models. The MWR model shows good approximation for the low frequency region, and as the number of division increases, good approximation spreads to higher frequency region. (Kato, T.)

  13. Control of the SCOLE configuration using distributed parameter models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Min-Hung; Huang, Jen-Kuang

    1994-01-01

    A continuum model for the SCOLE configuration has been derived using transfer matrices. Controller designs for distributed parameter systems have been analyzed. Pole-assignment controller design is considered easy to implement but stability is not guaranteed. An explicit transfer function of dynamic controllers has been obtained and no model reduction is required before the controller is realized. One specific LQG controller for continuum models had been derived, but other optimal controllers for more general performances need to be studied.

  14. SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made Python package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-04-01

    The selection and parameterization of reliable process descriptions in ecological modelling is driven by several uncertainties. The procedure is highly dependent on various criteria, like the used algorithm, the likelihood function selected and the definition of the prior parameter distributions. A wide variety of tools have been developed in the past decades to optimize parameters. Some of the tools are closed source. Due to this, the choice for a specific parameter estimation method is sometimes more dependent on its availability than the performance. A toolbox with a large set of methods can support users in deciding about the most suitable method. Further, it enables to test and compare different methods. We developed the SPOT (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of modules, to analyze and optimize parameters of (environmental) models. SPOT comes along with a selected set of algorithms for parameter optimization and uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo, MC; Latin Hypercube Sampling, LHS; Maximum Likelihood, MLE; Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC; Scuffled Complex Evolution, SCE-UA; Differential Evolution Markov Chain, DE-MCZ), together with several likelihood functions (Bias, (log-) Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency, Correlation Coefficient, Coefficient of Determination, Covariance, (Decomposed-, Relative-, Root-) Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Agreement Index) and prior distributions (Binomial, Chi-Square, Dirichlet, Exponential, Laplace, (log-, multivariate-) Normal, Pareto, Poisson, Cauchy, Uniform, Weibull) to sample from. The model-independent structure makes it suitable to analyze a wide range of applications. We apply all algorithms of the SPOT package in three different case studies. Firstly, we investigate the response of the Rosenbrock function, where the MLE algorithm shows its strengths. Secondly, we study the Griewank function, which has a challenging response surface for

  15. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  16. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  17. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  18. On the role of modeling parameters in IMRT plan optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, Michael; Scherrer, Alexander; Thieke, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The formulation of optimization problems in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) planning comprises the choice of various values such as function-specific parameters or constraint bounds. In current inverse planning programs that yield a single treatment plan for each optimization, it is often unclear how strongly these modeling parameters affect the resulting plan. This work investigates the mathematical concepts of elasticity and sensitivity to deal with this problem. An artificial planning case with a horse-shoe formed target with different opening angles surrounding a circular risk structure is studied. As evaluation functions the generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD) and the average underdosage below and average overdosage beyond certain dose thresholds are used. A single IMRT plan is calculated for an exemplary parameter configuration. The elasticity and sensitivity of each parameter are then calculated without re-optimization, and the results are numerically verified. The results show the following. (1) elasticity can quantify the influence of a modeling parameter on the optimization result in terms of how strongly the objective function value varies under modifications of the parameter value. It also can describe how strongly the geometry of the involved planning structures affects the optimization result. (2) Based on the current parameter settings and corresponding treatment plan, sensitivity analysis can predict the optimization result for modified parameter values without re-optimization, and it can estimate the value intervals in which such predictions are valid. In conclusion, elasticity and sensitivity can provide helpful tools in inverse IMRT planning to identify the most critical parameters of an individual planning problem and to modify their values in an appropriate way

  19. Assessment of Lumped-Parameter Models for Rigid Footings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2010-01-01

    The quality of consistent lumped-parameter models of rigid footings is examined. Emphasis is put on the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal...... and vertical translations as well as torsion and rocking, and the necessity of coupling between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed. Most of the analyses are carried out for hexagonal footings; but in order to generalise the conclusions to a broader variety of footings, comparisons are made...... with the response of circular and square foundations....

  20. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  1. Parameter estimation in nonlinear models for pesticide degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, O.; Pestemer, W.; Bunte, D.; Diekkrueger, B.

    1991-01-01

    A wide class of environmental transfer models is formulated as ordinary or partial differential equations. With the availability of fast computers, the numerical solution of large systems became feasible. The main difficulty in performing a realistic and convincing simulation of the fate of a substance in the biosphere is not the implementation of numerical techniques but rather the incomplete data basis for parameter estimation. Parameter estimation is a synonym for statistical and numerical procedures to derive reasonable numerical values for model parameters from data. The classical method is the familiar linear regression technique which dates back to the 18th century. Because it is easy to handle, linear regression has long been established as a convenient tool for analysing relationships. However, the wide use of linear regression has led to an overemphasis of linear relationships. In nature, most relationships are nonlinear and linearization often gives a poor approximation of reality. Furthermore, pure regression models are not capable to map the dynamics of a process. Therefore, realistic models involve the evolution in time (and space). This leads in a natural way to the formulation of differential equations. To establish the link between data and dynamical models, numerical advanced parameter identification methods have been developed in recent years. This paper demonstrates the application of these techniques to estimation problems in the field of pesticide dynamics. (7 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.)

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  3. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  4. The level density parameters for fermi gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuang Youxiang; Wang Cuilan; Zhou Chunmei; Su Zongdi

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear level densities are crucial ingredient in the statistical models, for instance, in the calculations of the widths, cross sections, emitted particle spectra, etc. for various reaction channels. In this work 667 sets of more reliable and new experimental data are adopted, which include average level spacing D D , radiative capture width Γ γ 0 at neutron binding energy and cumulative level number N 0 at the low excitation energy. They are published during 1973 to 1983. Based on the parameters given by Gilbert-Cameon and Cook the physical quantities mentioned above are calculated. The calculated results have the deviation obviously from experimental values. In order to improve the fitting, the parameters in the G-C formula are adjusted and new set of level density parameters is obsained. The parameters is this work are more suitable to fit new measurements

  5. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  6. X-Parameter Based Modelling of Polar Modulated Power Amplifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yelin; Nielsen, Troels Studsgaard; Sira, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    X-parameters are developed as an extension of S-parameters capable of modelling non-linear devices driven by large signals. They are suitable for devices having only radio frequency (RF) and DC ports. In a polar power amplifier (PA), phase and envelope of the input modulated signal are applied...... at separate ports and the envelope port is neither an RF nor a DC port. As a result, X-parameters may fail to characterise the effect of the envelope port excitation and consequently the polar PA. This study introduces a solution to the problem for a commercial polar PA. In this solution, the RF-phase path...... PA for simulations. The simulated error vector magnitude (EVM) and adjacent channel power ratio (ACPR) were compared with the measured data to validate the model. The maximum differences between the simulated and measured EVM and ACPR are less than 2% point and 3 dB, respectively....

  7. Joint Dynamics Modeling and Parameter Identification for Space Robot Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adenilson R. da Silva

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term mission identification and model validation for in-flight manipulator control system in almost zero gravity with hostile space environment are extremely important for robotic applications. In this paper, a robot joint mathematical model is developed where several nonlinearities have been taken into account. In order to identify all the required system parameters, an integrated identification strategy is derived. This strategy makes use of a robust version of least-squares procedure (LS for getting the initial conditions and a general nonlinear optimization method (MCS—multilevel coordinate search—algorithm to estimate the nonlinear parameters. The approach is applied to the intelligent robot joint (IRJ experiment that was developed at DLR for utilization opportunity on the International Space Station (ISS. The results using real and simulated measurements have shown that the developed algorithm and strategy have remarkable features in identifying all the parameters with good accuracy.

  8. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  9. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  10. Revised Parameters for the AMOEBA Polarizable Atomic Multipole Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laury, Marie L; Wang, Lee-Ping; Pande, Vijay S; Head-Gordon, Teresa; Ponder, Jay W

    2015-07-23

    A set of improved parameters for the AMOEBA polarizable atomic multipole water model is developed. An automated procedure, ForceBalance, is used to adjust model parameters to enforce agreement with ab initio-derived results for water clusters and experimental data for a variety of liquid phase properties across a broad temperature range. The values reported here for the new AMOEBA14 water model represent a substantial improvement over the previous AMOEBA03 model. The AMOEBA14 model accurately predicts the temperature of maximum density and qualitatively matches the experimental density curve across temperatures from 249 to 373 K. Excellent agreement is observed for the AMOEBA14 model in comparison to experimental properties as a function of temperature, including the second virial coefficient, enthalpy of vaporization, isothermal compressibility, thermal expansion coefficient, and dielectric constant. The viscosity, self-diffusion constant, and surface tension are also well reproduced. In comparison to high-level ab initio results for clusters of 2-20 water molecules, the AMOEBA14 model yields results similar to AMOEBA03 and the direct polarization iAMOEBA models. With advances in computing power, calibration data, and optimization techniques, we recommend the use of the AMOEBA14 water model for future studies employing a polarizable water model.

  11. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

    2013-12-01

    Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

  12. Investigation of land use effects on Nash model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, Faegheh; Fakheri Fard, Ahmad; Nourani, Vahid; Goodrich, David; Gupta, Hoshin

    2015-04-01

    Flood forecasting is of great importance in hydrologic planning, hydraulic structure design, water resources management and sustainable designs like flood control and management. Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph is frequently used for simulating hydrological response in natural watersheds. Urban hydrology is gaining more attention due to population increases and associated construction escalation. Rapid development of urban areas affects the hydrologic processes of watersheds by decreasing soil permeability, flood base flow, lag time and increase in flood volume, peak runoff rates and flood frequency. In this study the influence of urbanization on the significant parameters of the Nash model have been investigated. These parameters were calculated using three popular methods (i.e. moment, root mean square error and random sampling data generation), in a small watershed consisting of one natural sub-watershed which drains into a residentially developed sub-watershed in the city of Sierra Vista, Arizona. The results indicated that for all three methods, the lag time, which is product of Nash parameters "K" and "n", in the natural sub-watershed is greater than the developed one. This logically implies more storage and/or attenuation in the natural sub-watershed. The median K and n parameters derived from the three methods using calibration events were tested via a set of verification events. The results indicated that all the three method have acceptable accuracy in hydrograph simulation. The CDF curves and histograms of the parameters clearly show the difference of the Nash parameter values between the natural and developed sub-watersheds. Some specific upper and lower percentile values of the median of the generated parameters (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 %) were analyzed to future investigates the derived parameters. The model was sensitive to variations in the value of the uncertain K and n parameter. Changes in n are smaller than K in both sub-watersheds indicating

  13. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  14. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the development of thermodynamic databases for multicomponent systems using the cluster expansion–cluster variation methods, we need to have a consistent procedure for expressing the model parameters (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of ...

  15. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  16. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss...

  17. Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

  18. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J. Astrophys. Astr. (2011) 32, 299–300 c Indian Academy of Sciences. Constraint on Parameters of Inverse Compton Scattering Model for PSR B2319+60. H. G. Wang. ∗. & M. Lv. Center for Astrophysics,Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China. ∗ e-mail: cosmic008@yahoo.com.cn. Abstract. Using the multifrequency radio ...

  19. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  20. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  1. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  2. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  3. Estimating model parameters in nonautonomous chaotic systems using synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei; Sun, Zhongkui

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a technique is addressed for estimating unknown model parameters of multivariate, in particular, nonautonomous chaotic systems from time series of state variables. This technique uses an adaptive strategy for tracking unknown parameters in addition to a linear feedback coupling for synchronizing systems, and then some general conditions, by means of the periodic version of the LaSalle invariance principle for differential equations, are analytically derived to ensure precise evaluation of unknown parameters and identical synchronization between the concerned experimental system and its corresponding receiver one. Exemplifies are presented by employing a parametrically excited 4D new oscillator and an additionally excited Ueda oscillator. The results of computer simulations reveal that the technique not only can quickly track the desired parameter values but also can rapidly respond to changes in operating parameters. In addition, the technique can be favorably robust against the effect of noise when the experimental system is corrupted by bounded disturbance and the normalized absolute error of parameter estimation grows almost linearly with the cutoff value of noise strength in simulation

  4. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

  5. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  6. Space geodetic techniques for global modeling of ionospheric peak parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, M. Mahdi; Schuh, Harald; Schmidt, Michael

    The rapid development of new technological systems for navigation, telecommunication, and space missions which transmit signals through the Earth’s upper atmosphere - the ionosphere - makes the necessity of precise, reliable and near real-time models of the ionospheric parameters more crucial. In the last decades space geodetic techniques have turned into a capable tool for measuring ionospheric parameters in terms of Total Electron Content (TEC) or the electron density. Among these systems, the current space geodetic techniques, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites, satellite altimetry missions, and others have found several applications in a broad range of commercial and scientific fields. This paper aims at the development of a three-dimensional integrated model of the ionosphere, by using various space geodetic techniques and applying a combination procedure for computation of the global model of electron density. In order to model ionosphere in 3D, electron density is represented as a function of maximum electron density (NmF2), and its corresponding height (hmF2). NmF2 and hmF2 are then modeled in longitude, latitude, and height using two sets of spherical harmonic expansions with degree and order 15. To perform the estimation, GNSS input data are simulated in such a way that the true position of the satellites are detected and used, but the STEC values are obtained through a simulation procedure, using the IGS VTEC maps. After simulating the input data, the a priori values required for the estimation procedure are calculated using the IRI-2012 model and also by applying the ray-tracing technique. The estimated results are compared with F2-peak parameters derived from the IRI model to assess the least-square estimation procedure and moreover, to validate the developed maps, the results are compared with the raw F2-peak parameters derived from the Formosat-3/Cosmic data.

  7. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  8. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  9. Four-parameter analytical local model potential for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fei, Yu; Jiu-Xun, Sun; Rong-Gang, Tian; Wei, Yang

    2009-01-01

    Analytical local model potential for modeling the interaction in an atom reduces the computational effort in electronic structure calculations significantly. A new four-parameter analytical local model potential is proposed for atoms Li through Lr, and the values of four parameters are shell-independent and obtained by fitting the results of X a method. At the same time, the energy eigenvalues, the radial wave functions and the total energies of electrons are obtained by solving the radial Schrödinger equation with a new form of potential function by Numerov's numerical method. The results show that our new form of potential function is suitable for high, medium and low Z atoms. A comparison among the new potential function and other analytical potential functions shows the greater flexibility and greater accuracy of the present new potential function. (atomic and molecular physics)

  10. Improving the transferability of hydrological model parameters under changing conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yingchun; Bárdossy, András

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are widely utilized to describe catchment behaviors with observed hydro-meteorological data. Hydrological process may be considered as non-stationary under the changing climate and land use conditions. An applicable hydrological model should be able to capture the essential features of the target catchment and therefore be transferable to different conditions. At present, many model applications based on the stationary assumptions are not sufficient for predicting further changes or time variability. The aim of this study is to explore new model calibration methods in order to improve the transferability of model parameters. To cope with the instability of model parameters calibrated on catchments in non-stationary conditions, we investigate the idea of simultaneously calibration on streamflow records for the period with dissimilar climate characteristics. In additional, a weather based weighting function is implemented to adjust the calibration period to future trends. For regions with limited data and ungauged basins, the common calibration was applied by using information from similar catchments. Result shows the model performance and transfer quantity could be well improved via common calibration. This model calibration approach will be used to enhance regional water management and flood forecasting capabilities.

  11. Modeling extreme events: Sample fraction adaptive choice in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Manuela; Gomes, Ivette; Figueiredo, Fernanda; Gomes, Dora Prata

    2012-09-01

    When modeling extreme events there are a few primordial parameters, among which we refer the extreme value index and the extremal index. The extreme value index measures the right tail-weight of the underlying distribution and the extremal index characterizes the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary sequence. Most of the semi-parametric estimators of these parameters show the same type of behaviour: nice asymptotic properties, but a high variance for small values of k, the number of upper order statistics to be used in the estimation, and a high bias for large values of k. This shows a real need for the choice of k. Choosing some well-known estimators of those parameters we revisit the application of a heuristic algorithm for the adaptive choice of k. The procedure is applied to some simulated samples as well as to some real data sets.

  12. Robust linear parameter varying induction motor control with polytopic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalila Khamari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a robust controller for an induction motor which is represented as a linear parameter varying systems. To do so linear matrix inequality (LMI based approach and robust Lyapunov feedback controller are associated. This new approach is related to the fact that the synthesis of a linear parameter varying (LPV feedback controller for the inner loop take into account rotor resistance and mechanical speed as varying parameter. An LPV flux observer is also synthesized to estimate rotor flux providing reference to cited above regulator. The induction motor is described as a polytopic model because of speed and rotor resistance affine dependence their values can be estimated on line during systems operations. The simulation results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach where robustness stability and high performances have been achieved over the entire operating range of the induction motor.

  13. Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

  14. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  15. Thermal Model Parameter Identification of a Lithium Battery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Nissing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The temperature of a Lithium battery cell is important for its performance, efficiency, safety, and capacity and is influenced by the environmental temperature and by the charging and discharging process itself. Battery Management Systems (BMS take into account this effect. As the temperature at the battery cell is difficult to measure, often the temperature is measured on or nearby the poles of the cell, although the accuracy of predicting the cell temperature with those quantities is limited. Therefore a thermal model of the battery is used in order to calculate and estimate the cell temperature. This paper uses a simple RC-network representation for the thermal model and shows how the thermal parameters are identified using input/output measurements only, where the load current of the battery represents the input while the temperatures at the poles represent the outputs of the measurement. With a single measurement the eight model parameters (thermal resistances, electric contact resistances, and heat capacities can be determined using the method of least-square. Experimental results show that the simple model with the identified parameters fits very accurately to the measurements.

  16. Contaminant transport in aquifers: improving the determination of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabino, C.V.S.; Moreira, R.M.; Lula, Z.L.; Chausson, Y.; Magalhaes, W.F.; Vianna, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    Parameters conditioning the migration behavior of cesium and mercury are measured with their tracers 137 Cs and 203 Hg in the laboratory, using both batch and column experiments. Batch tests were used to define the sorption isotherm characteristics. Also investigated were the influences of some test parameters, in particular those due to the volume of water to mass of soil ratio (V/m). A provisional relationship between V/m and the distribution coefficient, K d , has been advanced, and a procedure to estimate K d 's valid for environmental values of the ratio V/m has been suggested. Column tests provided the parameters for a transport model. A major problem to be dealt with in such tests is the collimation of the radioactivity probe. Besides mechanically optimizing the collimator, a deconvolution procedure has been suggested and tested, with statistical criteria, to filter off both noise and spurious tracer signals. Correction procedures for the integrating effect introduced by sampling at the exit of columns have also been developed. These techniques may be helpful in increasing the accuracy required in the measurement of parameters conditioning contaminant migration in soils, thus allowing more reliable predictions based on mathematical model applications. (author)

  17. HOM study and parameter calculation of the TESLA cavity model

    CERN Document Server

    Zeng, Ri-Hua; Gerigk Frank; Wang Guang-Wei; Wegner Rolf; Liu Rong; Schuh Marcel

    2010-01-01

    The Superconducting Proton Linac (SPL) is the project for a superconducting, high current H-accelerator at CERN. To find dangerous higher order modes (HOMs) in the SPL superconducting cavities, simulation and analysis for the cavity model using simulation tools are necessary. The. existing TESLA 9-cell cavity geometry data have been used for the initial construction of the models in HFSS. Monopole, dipole and quadrupole modes have been obtained by applying different symmetry boundaries on various cavity models. In calculation, scripting language in HFSS was used to create scripts to automatically calculate the parameters of modes in these cavity models (these scripts are also available in other cavities with different cell numbers and geometric structures). The results calculated automatically are then compared with the values given in the TESLA paper. The optimized cavity model with the minimum error will be taken as the base for further simulation of the SPL cavities.

  18. Progressive Learning of Topic Modeling Parameters: A Visual Analytics Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Assady, Mennatallah; Sevastjanova, Rita; Sperrle, Fabian; Keim, Daniel; Collins, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Topic modeling algorithms are widely used to analyze the thematic composition of text corpora but remain difficult to interpret and adjust. Addressing these limitations, we present a modular visual analytics framework, tackling the understandability and adaptability of topic models through a user-driven reinforcement learning process which does not require a deep understanding of the underlying topic modeling algorithms. Given a document corpus, our approach initializes two algorithm configurations based on a parameter space analysis that enhances document separability. We abstract the model complexity in an interactive visual workspace for exploring the automatic matching results of two models, investigating topic summaries, analyzing parameter distributions, and reviewing documents. The main contribution of our work is an iterative decision-making technique in which users provide a document-based relevance feedback that allows the framework to converge to a user-endorsed topic distribution. We also report feedback from a two-stage study which shows that our technique results in topic model quality improvements on two independent measures.

  19. The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ptacek M.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.

  20. The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ptacek, M.

    2013-06-01

    This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.

  1. Propagation channel characterization, parameter estimation, and modeling for wireless communications

    CERN Document Server

    Yin, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Thoroughly covering channel characteristics and parameters, this book provides the knowledge needed to design various wireless systems, such as cellular communication systems, RFID and ad hoc wireless communication systems. It gives a detailed introduction to aspects of channels before presenting the novel estimation and modelling techniques which can be used to achieve accurate models. To systematically guide readers through the topic, the book is organised in three distinct parts. The first part covers the fundamentals of the characterization of propagation channels, including the conventional single-input single-output (SISO) propagation channel characterization as well as its extension to multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) cases. Part two focuses on channel measurements and channel data post-processing. Wideband channel measurements are introduced, including the equipment, technology and advantages and disadvantages of different data acquisition schemes. The channel parameter estimation methods are ...

  2. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  3. Lumped-parameter Model of a Bucket Foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, Morten

    2009-01-01

    As an alternative to gravity footings or pile foundations, offshore wind turbines at shallow water can be placed on a bucket foundation. The present analysis concerns the development of consistent lumped-parameter models for this type of foundation. The aim is to formulate a computationally effic...... be disregarded without significant loss of accuracy. Finally, special attention is drawn to the influence of the skirt stiffness, i.e. whether the embedded part of the caisson is rigid or flexible....

  4. Modeling Water Quality Parameters Using Data-driven Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Soleimani

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Surface water bodies are the most easily available water resources. Increase use and waste water withdrawal of surface water causes drastic changes in surface water quality. Water quality, importance as the most vulnerable and important water supply resources is absolutely clear. Unfortunately, in the recent years because of city population increase, economical improvement, and industrial product increase, entry of pollutants to water bodies has been increased. According to that water quality parameters express physical, chemical, and biological water features. So the importance of water quality monitoring is necessary more than before. Each of various uses of water, such as agriculture, drinking, industry, and aquaculture needs the water with a special quality. In the other hand, the exact estimation of concentration of water quality parameter is significant. Material and Methods: In this research, first two input variable models as selection methods (namely, correlation coefficient and principal component analysis were applied to select the model inputs. Data processing is consisting of three steps, (1 data considering, (2 identification of input data which have efficient on output data, and (3 selecting the training and testing data. Genetic Algorithm-Least Square Support Vector Regression (GA-LSSVR algorithm were developed to model the water quality parameters. In the LSSVR method is assumed that the relationship between input and output variables is nonlinear, but by using a nonlinear mapping relation can create a space which is named feature space in which relationship between input and output variables is defined linear. The developed algorithm is able to gain maximize the accuracy of the LSSVR method with auto LSSVR parameters. Genetic algorithm (GA is one of evolutionary algorithm which automatically can find the optimum coefficient of Least Square Support Vector Regression (LSSVR. The GA-LSSVR algorithm was employed to

  5. A procedure for determining parameters of a simplified ligament model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Jeff M; Callaghan, Jack P

    2018-01-03

    A previous mathematical model of ligament force-generation treated their behavior as a population of collagen fibres arranged in parallel. When damage was ignored in this model, an expression for ligament force in terms of the deflection, x, effective stiffness, k, mean collagen slack length, μ, and the standard deviation of slack lengths, σ, was obtained. We present a simple three-step method for determining the three model parameters (k, μ, and σ) from force-deflection data: (1) determine the equation of the line in the linear region of this curve, its slope is k and its x -intercept is -μ; (2) interpolate the force-deflection data when x is -μ to obtain F 0 ; (3) calculate σ with the equation σ=2πF 0 /k. Results from this method were in good agreement to those obtained from a least-squares procedure on experimental data - all falling within 6%. Therefore, parameters obtained using the proposed method provide a systematic way of reporting ligament parameters, or for obtaining an initial guess for nonlinear least-squares. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Modelling spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters in swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, L; Chollet, D

    2009-07-01

    This study modelled the changes in spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters through race paces in the four swimming strokes. The arm and leg phases in simultaneous strokes (butterfly and breaststroke) and the inter-arm phases in alternating strokes (crawl and backstroke) were identified by video analysis to calculate the time gaps between propulsive phases. The relationships among velocity, stroke rate, stroke length and coordination were modelled by polynomial regression. Twelve elite male swimmers swam at four race paces. Quadratic regression modelled the changes in spatial-temporal and coordinative parameters with velocity increases for all four strokes. First, the quadratic regression between coordination and velocity showed changes common to all four strokes. Notably, the time gaps between the key points defining the beginning and end of the stroke phases decreased with increases in velocity, which led to decreases in glide times and increases in the continuity between propulsive phases. Conjointly, the quadratic regression among stroke rate, stroke length and velocity was similar to the changes in coordination, suggesting that these parameters may influence coordination. The main practical application for coaches and scientists is that ineffective time gaps can be distinguished from those that simply reflect an individual swimmer's profile by monitoring the glide times within a stroke cycle. In the case of ineffective time gaps, targeted training could improve the swimmer's management of glide time.

  7. The Impact of Three Factors on the Recovery of Item Parameters for the Three-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a detailed description of three factors (specification of the ability distribution, numerical integration, and frame of reference for the item parameter estimates) that might affect the item parameter estimation of the three-parameter logistic model, and compares five item calibration methods, which are combinations of the…

  8. Local sensitivity analysis of a distributed parameters water quality model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastres, R.; Franco, D.; Pecenik, G.; Solidoro, C.; Dejak, C.

    1997-01-01

    A local sensitivity analysis is presented of a 1D water-quality reaction-diffusion model. The model describes the seasonal evolution of one of the deepest channels of the lagoon of Venice, that is affected by nutrient loads from the industrial area and heat emission from a power plant. Its state variables are: water temperature, concentrations of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, Reactive Phosphorous (RP), phytoplankton, and zooplankton densities, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD). Attention has been focused on the identifiability and the ranking of the parameters related to primary production in different mixing conditions

  9. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  10. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  11. Finding the effective parameter perturbations in atmospheric models: the LORENZ63 model as case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Selten, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Climate models contain numerous parameters for which the numeric values are uncertain. In the context of climate simulation and prediction, a relevant question is what range of climate outcomes is possible given the range of parameter uncertainties. Which parameter perturbation changes the climate

  12. Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    Local search methods have been applied successfully in calibration of simple groundwater models, but might fail in locating the optimum for models of increased complexity, due to the more complex shape of the response surface. Global search algorithms have been demonstrated to perform well...... for these types of models, although at a more expensive computational cost. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of a global and a local parameter optimization algorithm, respectively, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and the gradient-based Gauss......-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm (implemented in the PEST software), when applied to a steady-state and a transient groundwater model. The results show that PEST can have severe problems in locating the global optimum and in being trapped in local regions of attractions. The global SCE procedure is, in general, more effective...

  13. Flare parameters inferred from a 3D loop model database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuambe, Valente A.; Costa, J. E. R.; Simões, P. J. A.

    2018-04-01

    We developed a database of pre-calculated flare images and spectra exploring a set of parameters which describe the physical characteristics of coronal loops and accelerated electron distribution. Due to the large number of parameters involved in describing the geometry and the flaring atmosphere in the model used (Costa et al. 2013), we built a large database of models (˜250 000) to facilitate the flare analysis. The geometry and characteristics of non-thermal electrons are defined on a discrete grid with spatial resolution greater than 4 arcsec. The database was constructed based on general properties of known solar flares and convolved with instrumental resolution to replicate the observations from the Nobeyama radio polarimeter (NoRP) spectra and Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) brightness maps. Observed spectra and brightness distribution maps are easily compared with the modelled spectra and images in the database, indicating a possible range of solutions. The parameter search efficiency in this finite database is discussed. Eight out of ten parameters analysed for one thousand simulated flare searches were recovered with a relative error of less than 20 per cent on average. In addition, from the analysis of the observed correlation between NoRH flare sizes and intensities at 17 GHz, some statistical properties were derived. From these statistics the energy spectral index was found to be δ ˜ 3, with non-thermal electron densities showing a peak distribution ⪅107 cm-3, and Bphotosphere ⪆2000 G. Some bias for larger loops with heights as great as ˜2.6 × 109 cm, and looptop events were noted. An excellent match of the spectrum and the brightness distribution at 17 and 34 GHz of the 2002 May 31 flare, is presented as well.

  14. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  15. A review of distributed parameter groundwater management modeling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.

    1983-01-01

    Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

  16. Some notes on unobserved parameters (frailties) in reliability modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2014-01-01

    Unobserved random quantities (frailties) often appear in various reliability problems especially when dealing with the failure rates of items from heterogeneous populations. As the failure rate is a conditional characteristic, the distributions of these random quantities, similar to Bayesian approaches, are updated in accordance with the corresponding survival information. At some instances, apart from a statistical meaning, frailties can have also useful interpretations describing the underlying lifetime model. We discuss and clarify these issues in reliability context and present and analyze several meaningful examples. We consider the proportional hazards model with a random factor; the stress–strength model, where the unobserved strength of a system can be viewed as frailty; a parallel system with a random number of components and, finally, the first passage time problem for the Wiener process with random parameters. - Highlights: • We discuss and clarify the notion of frailty in reliability context and present and analyze several meaningful examples. • The paper provides a new insight and general perspective on reliability models with unobserved parameters. • The main message of the paper is well illustrated by several meaningful examples and emphasized by detailed discussion

  17. Hydrological Modelling and Parameter Identification for Green Roof

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, W.; Tung, C.

    2012-12-01

    Green roofs, a multilayered system covered by plants, can be used to replace traditional concrete roofs as one of various measures to mitigate the increasing stormwater runoff in the urban environment. Moreover, facing the high uncertainty of the climate change, the present engineering method as adaptation may be regarded as improper measurements; reversely, green roofs are unregretful and flexible, and thus are rather important and suitable. The related technology has been developed for several years and the researches evaluating the stormwater reduction performance of green roofs are ongoing prosperously. Many European counties, cities in the U.S., and other local governments incorporate green roof into the stormwater control policy. Therefore, in terms of stormwater management, it is necessary to develop a robust hydrologic model to quantify the efficacy of green roofs over different types of designs and environmental conditions. In this research, a physical based hydrologic model is proposed to simulate water flowing process in the green roof system. In particular, the model adopts the concept of water balance, bringing a relatively simple and intuitive idea. Also, the research compares the two methods in the surface water balance calculation. One is based on Green-Ampt equation, and the other is under the SCS curve number calculation. A green roof experiment is designed to collect weather data and water discharge. Then, the proposed model is verified with these observed data; furthermore, the parameters using in the model are calibrated to find appropriate values in the green roof hydrologic simulation. This research proposes a simple physical based hydrologic model and the measures to determine parameters for the model.

  18. Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naqib Daneshjo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

  19. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  20. Parameter Estimation for a Class of Lifetime Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyang Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Our purpose in this paper is to present a better method of parametric estimation for a bivariate nonlinear regression model, which takes the performance indicator of rubber aging as the dependent variable and time and temperature as the independent variables. We point out that the commonly used two-step method (TSM, which splits the model and estimate parameters separately, has limitation. Instead, we apply the Marquardt’s method (MM to implement parametric estimation directly for the model and compare these two methods of parametric estimation by random simulation. Our results show that MM has better effect of data fitting, more reasonable parametric estimates, and smaller prediction error compared with TSM.

  1. The parameter space of Cubic Galileon models for cosmic acceleration

    CERN Document Server

    Bellini, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    We use recent measurements of the expansion history of the universe to place constraints on the parameter space of cubic Galileon models. This gives strong constraints on the Lagrangian of these models. Most dynamical terms in the Galileon Lagrangian are constraint to be small and the acceleration is effectively provided by a constant term in the scalar potential, thus reducing, effectively, to a LCDM model for current acceleration. The effective equation of state is indistinguishable from that of a cosmological constant w = -1 and the data constraint it to have no temporal variations of more than at the few % level. The energy density of the Galileon can contribute only to about 10% of the acceleration energy density, being the other 90% a cosmological constant term. This demonstrates how useful direct measurements of the expansion history of the universe are at constraining the dynamical nature of dark energy.

  2. Analysis of Model Parameters for a Polymer Filtration Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Brackett-Rozinsky

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine a simulation model for polymer extrusion filters and determine its sensitivity to filter parameters. The simulator is a three-dimensional, time-dependent discretization of a coupled system of nonlinear partial differential equations used to model fluid flow and debris transport, along with statistical relationships that define debris distributions and retention probabilities. The flow of polymer fluid, and suspended debris particles, is tracked to determine how well a filter performs and how long it operates before clogging. A filter may have multiple layers, characterized by thickness, porosity, and average pore diameter. In this work, the thickness of each layer is fixed, while the porosities and pore diameters vary for a two-layer and three-layer study. The effects of porosity and average pore diameter on the measures of filter quality are calculated. For the three layer model, these effects are tested for statistical significance using analysis of variance. Furthermore, the effects of each pair of interacting parameters are considered. This allows the detection of complexity, where in changing two aspects of a filter together may generate results substantially different from what occurs when those same aspects change separately. The principal findings indicate that the first layer of a filter is the most important.

  3. Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosario Morello

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

  4. Applying Atmospheric Measurements to Constrain Parameters of Terrestrial Source Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Allen, D. J.

    2004-12-01

    Quantitative inversions of atmospheric measurements have been widely applied to constrain atmospheric budgets of a range of trace gases. Experiments of this type have revealed persistent discrepancies between 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' estimates of source magnitudes. The most common atmospheric inversion uses the absolute magnitude as the sole parameter for each source, and returns the optimal value of that parameter. In order for atmospheric measurements to be useful for improving 'bottom-up' models of terrestrial sources, information about other properties of the sources must be extracted. As the density and quality of atmospheric trace gas measurements improve, examination of higher-order properties of trace gas sources should become possible. Our model of boreal forest fire emissions is parameterized to permit flexible examination of the key uncertainties in this source. Using output from this model together with the UM CTM, we examined the sensitivity of CO concentration measurements made by the MOPITT instrument to various uncertainties in the boreal source: geographic distribution of burned area, fire type (crown fires vs. surface fires), and fuel consumption in above-ground and ground-layer fuels. Our results indicate that carefully designed inversion experiments have the potential to help constrain not only the absolute magnitudes of terrestrial sources, but also the key uncertainties associated with 'bottom-up' estimates of those sources.

  5. Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland

    2013-08-01

    Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.

  6. Application of a free parameter model to plastic scintillation samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarancon Sanz, Alex, E-mail: alex.tarancon@ub.edu [Departament de Quimica Analitica, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain); Kossert, Karsten, E-mail: Karsten.Kossert@ptb.de [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Bundesallee 100, 38116 Braunschweig (Germany)

    2011-08-21

    In liquid scintillation (LS) counting, the CIEMAT/NIST efficiency tracing method and the triple-to-double coincidence ratio (TDCR) method have proved their worth for reliable activity measurements of a number of radionuclides. In this paper, an extended approach to apply a free-parameter model to samples containing a mixture of solid plastic scintillation microspheres and radioactive aqueous solutions is presented. Several beta-emitting radionuclides were measured in a TDCR system at PTB. For the application of the free parameter model, the energy loss in the aqueous phase must be taken into account, since this portion of the particle energy does not contribute to the creation of scintillation light. The energy deposit in the aqueous phase is determined by means of Monte Carlo calculations applying the PENELOPE software package. To this end, great efforts were made to model the geometry of the samples. Finally, a new geometry parameter was defined, which was determined by means of a tracer radionuclide with known activity. This makes the analysis of experimental TDCR data of other radionuclides possible. The deviations between the determined activity concentrations and reference values were found to be lower than 3%. The outcome of this research work is also important for a better understanding of liquid scintillation counting. In particular the influence of (inverse) micelles, i.e. the aqueous spaces embedded in the organic scintillation cocktail, can be investigated. The new approach makes clear that it is important to take the energy loss in the aqueous phase into account. In particular for radionuclides emitting low-energy electrons (e.g. M-Auger electrons from {sup 125}I), this effect can be very important.

  7. Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Jolley

    2001-07-16

    This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M&O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow {Delta}G (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed.

  8. Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M and O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a new qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow ΔG (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M and O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M and O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed

  9. Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J.

    2009-01-01

    The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)

  10. Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1975-07-01

    The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company

  11. Taming Many-Parameter BSM Models with Bayesian Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchera, M. P.; Karbo, A.; Prosper, H. B.; Sanchez, A.; Taylor, J. Z.

    2017-09-01

    The search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a major focus of large-scale high energy physics experiments. One method is to look for specific deviations from the Standard Model that are predicted by BSM models. In cases where the model has a large number of free parameters, standard search methods become intractable due to computation time. This talk presents results using Bayesian Neural Networks, a supervised machine learning method, to enable the study of higher-dimensional models. The popular phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model was studied as an example of the feasibility and usefulness of this method. Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are used to expedite the calculations. Cross-section predictions for 13 TeV proton collisions will be presented. My participation in the Conference Experience for Undergraduates (CEU) in 2004-2006 exposed me to the national and global significance of cutting-edge research. At the 2005 CEU, I presented work from the previous summer's SULI internship at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, where I learned to program while working on the Majorana Project. That work inspired me to follow a similar research path, which led me to my current work on computational methods applied to BSM physics.

  12. Bayesian analysis of inflation: Parameter estimation for single field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortonson, Michael J.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Easther, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Future astrophysical data sets promise to strengthen constraints on models of inflation, and extracting these constraints requires methods and tools commensurate with the quality of the data. In this paper we describe ModeCode, a new, publicly available code that computes the primordial scalar and tensor power spectra for single-field inflationary models. ModeCode solves the inflationary mode equations numerically, avoiding the slow roll approximation. It is interfaced with CAMB and CosmoMC to compute cosmic microwave background angular power spectra and perform likelihood analysis and parameter estimation. ModeCode is easily extendable to additional models of inflation, and future updates will include Bayesian model comparison. Errors from ModeCode contribute negligibly to the error budget for analyses of data from Planck or other next generation experiments. We constrain representative single-field models (φ n with n=2/3, 1, 2, and 4, natural inflation, and 'hilltop' inflation) using current data, and provide forecasts for Planck. From current data, we obtain weak but nontrivial limits on the post-inflationary physics, which is a significant source of uncertainty in the predictions of inflationary models, while we find that Planck will dramatically improve these constraints. In particular, Planck will link the inflationary dynamics with the post-inflationary growth of the horizon, and thus begin to probe the ''primordial dark ages'' between TeV and grand unified theory scale energies.

  13. Empirically modelled Pc3 activity based on solar wind parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Heilig

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available It is known that under certain solar wind (SW/interplanetary magnetic field (IMF conditions (e.g. high SW speed, low cone angle the occurrence of ground-level Pc3–4 pulsations is more likely. In this paper we demonstrate that in the event of anomalously low SW particle density, Pc3 activity is extremely low regardless of otherwise favourable SW speed and cone angle. We re-investigate the SW control of Pc3 pulsation activity through a statistical analysis and two empirical models with emphasis on the influence of SW density on Pc3 activity. We utilise SW and IMF measurements from the OMNI project and ground-based magnetometer measurements from the MM100 array to relate SW and IMF measurements to the occurrence of Pc3 activity. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models are used in iterative processes in order to identify sets of SW-based input parameters, which optimally reproduce a set of Pc3 activity data. The inclusion of SW density in the parameter set significantly improves the models. Not only the density itself, but other density related parameters, such as the dynamic pressure of the SW, or the standoff distance of the magnetopause work equally well in the model. The disappearance of Pc3s during low-density events can have at least four reasons according to the existing upstream wave theory: 1. Pausing the ion-cyclotron resonance that generates the upstream ultra low frequency waves in the absence of protons, 2. Weakening of the bow shock that implies less efficient reflection, 3. The SW becomes sub-Alfvénic and hence it is not able to sweep back the waves propagating upstream with the Alfvén-speed, and 4. The increase of the standoff distance of the magnetopause (and of the bow shock. Although the models cannot account for the lack of Pc3s during intervals when the SW density is extremely low, the resulting sets of optimal model inputs support the generation of mid latitude Pc3 activity predominantly through

  14. Modelling of bio-optical parameters of open ocean waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim N. Pelevin

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available An original method for estimating the concentration of chlorophyll pigments, absorption of yellow substance and absorption of suspended matter without pigments and yellow substance in detritus using spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance and irradiance reflectance data has been applied to sea waters of different types in the open ocean (case 1. Using the effective numerical single parameter classification with the water type optical index m as a parameter over the whole range of the open ocean waters, the calculations have been carried out and the light absorption spectra of sea waters tabulated. These spectra are used to optimize the absorption models and thus to estimate the concentrations of the main admixtures in sea water. The value of m can be determined from direct measurements of the downward irradiance attenuation coefficient at 500 nm or calculated from remote sensing data using the regressions given in the article. The sea water composition can then be readily estimated from the tables given for any open ocean area if that one parameter m characterizing the basin is known.

  15. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  16. Convergence of surface diffusion parameters with model crystal size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jennifer M.; Voter, Arthur F.

    1994-07-01

    A study of the variation in the calculated quantities for adatom diffusion with respect to the size of the model crystal is presented. The reported quantities include surface diffusion barrier heights, pre-exponential factors, and dynamical correction factors. Embedded atom method (EAM) potentials were used throughout this effort. Both the layer size and the depth of the crystal were found to influence the values of the Arrhenius factors significantly. In particular, exchange type mechanisms required a significantly larger model than standard hopping mechanisms to determine adatom diffusion barriers of equivalent accuracy. The dynamical events that govern the corrections to transition state theory (TST) did not appear to be as sensitive to crystal depth. Suitable criteria for the convergence of the diffusion parameters with regard to the rate properties are illustrated.

  17. Diabatic models with transferrable parameters for generalized chemical reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimers, Jeffrey R.; McKemmish, Laura K.; McKenzie, Ross H.; Hush, Noel S.

    2017-05-01

    Diabatic models applied to adiabatic electron-transfer theory yield many equations involving just a few parameters that connect ground-state geometries and vibration frequencies to excited-state transition energies and vibration frequencies to the rate constants for electron-transfer reactions, utilizing properties of the conical-intersection seam linking the ground and excited states through the Pseudo Jahn-Teller effect. We review how such simplicity in basic understanding can also be obtained for general chemical reactions. The key feature that must be recognized is that electron-transfer (or hole transfer) processes typically involve one electron (hole) moving between two orbitals, whereas general reactions typically involve two electrons or even four electrons for processes in aromatic molecules. Each additional moving electron leads to new high-energy but interrelated conical-intersection seams that distort the shape of the critical lowest-energy seam. Recognizing this feature shows how conical-intersection descriptors can be transferred between systems, and how general chemical reactions can be compared using the same set of simple parameters. Mathematical relationships are presented depicting how different conical-intersection seams relate to each other, showing that complex problems can be reduced into an effective interaction between the ground-state and a critical excited state to provide the first semi-quantitative implementation of Shaik’s “twin state” concept. Applications are made (i) demonstrating why the chemistry of the first-row elements is qualitatively so different to that of the second and later rows, (ii) deducing the bond-length alternation in hypothetical cyclohexatriene from the observed UV spectroscopy of benzene, (iii) demonstrating that commonly used procedures for modelling surface hopping based on inclusion of only the first-derivative correction to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation are valid in no region of the chemical

  18. Piecewise Model and Parameter Obtainment of Governor Actuator in Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The governor actuators in some heat-engine plants have nonlinear valves. This nonlinearity of valves may lead to the inaccuracy of the opening and closing time constants calculated based on the whole segment fully open and fully close experimental test curves of the valve. An improved mathematical model of the turbine governor actuator is proposed to reflect the nonlinearity of the valve, in which the main and auxiliary piecewise opening and closing time constants instead of the fixed oil motive opening and closing time constants are adopted to describe the characteristics of the actuator. The main opening and closing time constants are obtained from the linear segments of the whole fully open and close curves. The parameters of proportional integral derivative (PID controller are identified based on the small disturbance experimental tests of the valve. Then the auxiliary opening and closing time constants and the piecewise opening and closing valve points are determined by the fully open/close experimental tests. Several testing functions are selected to compare genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm (GA-PSO with other basic intelligence algorithms. The effectiveness of the piecewise linear model and its parameters are validated by practical power plant case studies.

  19. Standard model parameters and the search for new physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, W.J.

    1988-04-01

    In these lectures, my aim is to present an up-to-date status report on the standard model and some key tests of electroweak unification. Within that context, I also discuss how and where hints of new physics may emerge. To accomplish those goals, I have organized my presentation as follows: I discuss the standard model parameters with particular emphasis on the gauge coupling constants and vector boson masses. Examples of new physics appendages are also briefly commented on. In addition, because these lectures are intended for students and thus somewhat pedagogical, I have included an appendix on dimensional regularization and a simple computational example that employs that technique. Next, I focus on weak charged current phenomenology. Precision tests of the standard model are described and up-to-date values for the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) mixing matrix parameters are presented. Constraints implied by those tests for a 4th generation, supersymmetry, extra Z/prime/ bosons, and compositeness are also discussed. I discuss weak neutral current phenomenology and the extraction of sin/sup 2/ /theta//sub W/ from experiment. The results presented there are based on a recently completed global analysis of all existing data. I have chosen to concentrate that discussion on radiative corrections, the effect of a heavy top quark mass, and implications for grand unified theories (GUTS). The potential for further experimental progress is also commented on. I depart from the narrowest version of the standard model and discuss effects of neutrino masses and mixings. I have chosen to concentrate on oscillations, the Mikheyev-Smirnov- Wolfenstein (MSW) effect, and electromagnetic properties of neutrinos. On the latter topic, I will describe some recent work on resonant spin-flavor precession. Finally, I conclude with a prospectus on hopes for the future. 76 refs

  20. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  1. Performance Analysis of Different NeQuick Ionospheric Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Ningbo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Galileo adopts NeQuick model for single-frequency ionospheric delay corrections. For the standard operation of Galileo, NeQuick model is driven by the effective ionization level parameter Az instead of the solar activity level index, and the three broadcast ionospheric coefficients are determined by a second-polynomial through fitting the Az values estimated from globally distributed Galileo Sensor Stations (GSS. In this study, the processing strategies for the estimation of NeQuick ionospheric coefficients are discussed and the characteristics of the NeQuick coefficients are also analyzed. The accuracy of Global Position System (GPS broadcast Klobuchar, original NeQuick2 and fitted NeQuickC as well as Galileo broadcast NeQuickG models is evaluated over the continental and oceanic regions, respectively, in comparison with the ionospheric total electron content (TEC provided by global ionospheric maps (GIM, GPS test stations and JASON-2 altimeter. The results show that NeQuickG can mitigate ionospheric delay by 54.2%~65.8% on a global scale, and NeQuickC can correct for 71.1%~74.2% of the ionospheric delay. NeQuick2 performs at the same level with NeQuickG, which is a bit better than that of GPS broadcast Klobuchar model.

  2. Exploring parameter constraints on quintessential dark energy: The exponential model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozek, Brandon; Abrahamse, Augusta; Albrecht, Andreas; Barnard, Michael

    2008-01-01

    We present an analysis of a scalar field model of dark energy with an exponential potential using the Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) simulated data models. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques we examine the ability of each simulated data set to constrain the parameter space of the exponential potential for data sets based on a cosmological constant and a specific exponential scalar field model. We compare our results with the constraining power calculated by the DETF using their 'w 0 -w a ' parametrization of the dark energy. We find that respective increases in constraining power from one stage to the next produced by our analysis give results consistent with DETF results. To further investigate the potential impact of future experiments, we also generate simulated data for an exponential model background cosmology which cannot be distinguished from a cosmological constant at DETF 'Stage 2', and show that for this cosmology good DETF Stage 4 data would exclude a cosmological constant by better than 3σ

  3. Application of multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models in radiation belt modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryan, H.; Kang, S. B.; Balikhin, M. A.; Fok, M. C. H.; Agapitov, O. V.; Komar, C. M.; Kanekal, S. G.; Nagai, T.; Sibeck, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model along with many other radiation belt models require inputs for pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. In this study we incorporate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of MeV electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multi-parameter wave models resembles the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

  4. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  5. The electronic disability record: purpose, parameters, and model use case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulu, Bengisu; Horan, Thomas A

    2009-01-01

    The active engagement of consumers is an important factor in achieving widespread success of health information systems. The disability community represents a major segment of the healthcare arena, with more than 50 million Americans experiencing some form of disability. In keeping with the "consumer-driven" approach to e-health systems, this paper considers the distinctive aspects of electronic and personal health record use by this segment of society. Drawing upon the information shared during two national policy forums on this topic, the authors present the concept of Electronic Disability Records (EDR). The authors outline the purpose and parameters of such records, with specific attention to its ability to organize health and financial data in a manner that can be used to expedite the disability determination process. In doing so, the authors discuss its interaction with Electronic Health Records (EHR) and Personal Health Records (PHR). The authors then draw upon these general parameters to outline a model use case for disability determination and discuss related implications for disability health management. The paper further reports on the subsequent considerations of these and related deliberations by the American Health Information Community (AHIC).

  6. The S-parameter in Holographic Technicolor Models

    CERN Document Server

    Agashe, Kaustubh; Grojean, Christophe; Reece, Matthew

    2007-01-01

    We study the S parameter, considering especially its sign, in models of electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) in extra dimensions, with fermions localized near the UV brane. Such models are conjectured to be dual to 4D strong dynamics triggering EWSB. The motivation for such a study is that a negative value of S can significantly ameliorate the constraints from electroweak precision data on these models, allowing lower mass scales (TeV or below) for the new particles and leading to easier discovery at the LHC. We first extend an earlier proof of S>0 for EWSB by boundary conditions in arbitrary metric to the case of general kinetic functions for the gauge fields or arbitrary kinetic mixing. We then consider EWSB in the bulk by a Higgs VEV showing that S is positive for arbitrary metric and Higgs profile, assuming that the effects from higher-dimensional operators in the 5D theory are sub-leading and can therefore be neglected. For the specific case of AdS_5 with a power law Higgs profile, we also show that S ~ ...

  7. Extracting Structure Parameters of Dimers for Molecular Tunneling Ionization Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Song-Feng; Huang, Fang; Wang, Guo-Li; Zhou, Xiao-Xin

    2016-03-01

    We determine structure parameters of the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) of 27 dimers for the molecular tunneling ionization (so called MO-ADK) model of Tong et al. [Phys. Rev. A 66 (2002) 033402]. The molecular wave functions with correct asymptotic behavior are obtained by solving the time-independent Schrödinger equation with B-spline functions and molecular potentials which are numerically created using the density functional theory. We examine the alignment-dependent tunneling ionization probabilities from MO-ADK model for several molecules by comparing with the molecular strong-field approximation (MO-SFA) calculations. We show the molecular Perelomov–Popov–Terent'ev (MO-PPT) can successfully give the laser wavelength dependence of ionization rates (or probabilities). Based on the MO-PPT model, two diatomic molecules having valence orbital with antibonding systems (i.e., Cl2, Ne2) show strong ionization suppression when compared with their corresponding closest companion atoms. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11164025, 11264036, 11465016, 11364038, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No. 20116203120001, and the Basic Scientific Research Foundation for Institution of Higher Learning of Gansu Province

  8. Sound propagation and absorption in foam - A distributed parameter model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manson, L.; Lieberman, S.

    1971-01-01

    Liquid-base foams are highly effective sound absorbers. A better understanding of the mechanisms of sound absorption in foams was sought by exploration of a mathematical model of bubble pulsation and coupling and the development of a distributed-parameter mechanical analog. A solution by electric-circuit analogy was thus obtained and transmission-line theory was used to relate the physical properties of the foams to the characteristic impedance and propagation constants of the analog transmission line. Comparison of measured physical properties of the foam with values obtained from measured acoustic impedance and propagation constants and the transmission-line theory showed good agreement. We may therefore conclude that the sound propagation and absorption mechanisms in foam are accurately described by the resonant response of individual bubbles coupled to neighboring bubbles.

  9. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification

  10. Coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow: Influence of modeling parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeniyi Ganiyu Adeogun

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents outcome of our investigation on the influence of modeling parameters on 1D-2D hydrodynamic inundation model for sewer overflow, developed through coupling of an existing 1D sewer network model (SWMM and 2D inundation model (BREZO. The 1D-2D hydrodynamic model was developed for the purpose of examining flood incidence due to surcharged water on overland surface. The investigation was carried out by performing sensitivity analysis on the developed model. For the sensitivity analysis, modeling parameters, such as mesh resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution and roughness were considered. The outcome of the study shows the model is sensitive to changes in these parameters. The performance of the model is significantly influenced, by the Manning's friction value, the DEM resolution and the area of the triangular mesh. Also, changes in the aforementioned modeling parameters influence the Flood characteristics, such as the inundation extent, the flow depth and the velocity across the model domain.

  11. Modeling the outflow of liquid with initial supercritical parameters using the relaxation model for condensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezhnin Sergey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The two-temperature model of the outflow from a vessel with initial supercritical parameters of medium has been realized. The model uses thermodynamic non-equilibrium relaxation approach to describe phase transitions. Based on a new asymptotic model for computing the relaxation time, the outflow of water with supercritical initial pressure and super- and subcritical temperatures has been calculated.

  12. Hydrological modeling in alpine catchments: sensing the critical parameters towards an efficient model calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achleitner, S; Rinderer, M; Kirnbauer, R

    2009-01-01

    For the Tyrolean part of the river Inn, a hybrid model for flood forecast has been set up and is currently in its test phase. The system is a hybrid system which comprises of a hydraulic 1D model for the river Inn, and the hydrological models HQsim (Rainfall-runoff-discharge model) and the snow and ice melt model SES for modeling the rainfall runoff form non-glaciated and glaciated tributary catchment respectively. Within this paper the focus is put on the hydrological modeling of the totally 49 connected non-glaciated catchments realized with the software HQsim. In the course of model calibration, the identification of the most sensitive parameters is important aiming at an efficient calibration procedure. The indicators used for explaining the parameter sensitivities were chosen specifically for the purpose of flood forecasting. Finally five model parameters could be identified as being sensitive for model calibration when aiming for a well calibrated model for flood conditions. In addition two parameters were identified which are sensitive in situations where the snow line plays an important role.

  13. Misspecification in Latent Change Score Models: Consequences for Parameter Estimation, Model Evaluation, and Predicting Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, D Angus; Nuttall, Amy K; Bowles, Ryan P

    2018-01-01

    Latent change score models (LCS) are conceptually powerful tools for analyzing longitudinal data (McArdle & Hamagami, 2001). However, applications of these models typically include constraints on key parameters over time. Although practically useful, strict invariance over time in these parameters is unlikely in real data. This study investigates the robustness of LCS when invariance over time is incorrectly imposed on key change-related parameters. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to explore the impact of misspecification on parameter estimation, predicted trajectories of change, and model fit in the dual change score model, the foundational LCS. When constraints were incorrectly applied, several parameters, most notably the slope (i.e., constant change) factor mean and autoproportion coefficient, were severely and consistently biased, as were regression paths to the slope factor when external predictors of change were included. Standard fit indices indicated that the misspecified models fit well, partly because mean level trajectories over time were accurately captured. Loosening constraint improved the accuracy of parameter estimates, but estimates were more unstable, and models frequently failed to converge. Results suggest that potentially common sources of misspecification in LCS can produce distorted impressions of developmental processes, and that identifying and rectifying the situation is a challenge.

  14. Physical property parameter set for modeling ICPP aqueous wastes with ASPEN electrolyte NRTL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schindler, R.E.

    1996-09-01

    The aqueous waste evaporators at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) are being modeled using ASPEN software. The ASPEN software calculates chemical and vapor-liquid equilibria with activity coefficients calculated using the electrolyte Non-Random Two Liquid (NRTL) model for local excess Gibbs free energies of interactions between ions and molecules in solution. The use of the electrolyte NRTL model requires the determination of empirical parameters for the excess Gibbs free energies of the interactions between species in solution. This report covers the development of a set parameters, from literature data, for the use of the electrolyte NRTL model with the major solutes in the ICPP aqueous wastes

  15. Testing for parameter instability across different modeling frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calvori, Francesco; Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André

    2017-01-01

    We develop a new parameter instability test that generalizes the seminal ARCHLagrange Multiplier test of Engle (1982) for a constant variance against the alternative of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to settings with nonlinear timevarying parameters and non-Gaussian distributions. We

  16. Statistical osteoporosis models using composite finite elements: a parameter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfram, Uwe; Schwen, Lars Ole; Simon, Ulrich; Rumpf, Martin; Wilke, Hans-Joachim

    2009-09-18

    Osteoporosis is a widely spread disease with severe consequences for patients and high costs for health care systems. The disease is characterised by a loss of bone mass which induces a loss of mechanical performance and structural integrity. It was found that transverse trabeculae are thinned and perforated while vertical trabeculae stay intact. For understanding these phenomena and the mechanisms leading to fractures of trabecular bone due to osteoporosis, numerous researchers employ micro-finite element models. To avoid disadvantages in setting up classical finite element models, composite finite elements (CFE) can be used. The aim of the study is to test the potential of CFE. For that, a parameter study on numerical lattice samples with statistically simulated, simplified osteoporosis is performed. These samples are subjected to compression and shear loading. Results show that the biggest drop of compressive stiffness is reached for transverse isotropic structures losing 32% of the trabeculae (minus 89.8% stiffness). The biggest drop in shear stiffness is found for an isotropic structure also losing 32% of the trabeculae (minus 67.3% stiffness). The study indicates that losing trabeculae leads to a worse drop of macroscopic stiffness than thinning of trabeculae. The results further demonstrate the advantages of CFEs for simulating micro-structured samples.

  17. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  18. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  19. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF FLOW PARAMETERS FOR SINGLE WIND TURBINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that on the territory of the Russian Federation the construction of several large wind farms is planned. The tasks connected with design and efficiency evaluation of wind farm work are in demand today. One of the possible directions in design is connected with mathematical modeling. The method of large eddy simulation developed within the direction of computational hydrodynamics allows to reproduce unsteady structure of the flow in details and to determine various integrated values. The calculation of work for single wind turbine installation by means of large eddy simulation and Actuator Line Method along the turbine blade is given in this work. For problem definition the numerical method in the form of a box was considered and the adapted unstructured grid was used.The mathematical model included the main equations of continuity and momentum equations for incompressible fluid. The large-scale vortex structures were calculated by means of integration of the filtered equations. The calculation was carried out with Smagorinsky model for determination of subgrid scale turbulent viscosity. The geometrical parametersof wind turbine were set proceeding from open sources in the Internet.All physical values were defined at center of computational cell. The approximation of items in equations was ex- ecuted with the second order of accuracy for time and space. The equations for coupling velocity and pressure were solved by means of iterative algorithm PIMPLE. The total quantity of the calculated physical values on each time step was equal to 18. So, the resources of a high performance cluster were required.As a result of flow calculation in wake for the three-bladed turbine average and instantaneous values of velocity, pressure, subgrid kinetic energy and turbulent viscosity, components of subgrid stress tensor were worked out. The re- ceived results matched the known results of experiments and numerical simulation, testify the opportunity

  20. GEMSFITS: Code package for optimization of geochemical model parameters and inverse modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miron, George D.; Kulik, Dmitrii A.; Dmytrieva, Svitlana V.; Wagner, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Tool for generating consistent parameters against various types of experiments. • Handles a large number of experimental data and parameters (is parallelized). • Has a graphical interface and can perform statistical analysis on the parameters. • Tested on fitting the standard state Gibbs free energies of aqueous Al species. • Example on fitting interaction parameters of mixing models and thermobarometry. - Abstract: GEMSFITS is a new code package for fitting internally consistent input parameters of GEM (Gibbs Energy Minimization) geochemical–thermodynamic models against various types of experimental or geochemical data, and for performing inverse modeling tasks. It consists of the gemsfit2 (parameter optimizer) and gfshell2 (graphical user interface) programs both accessing a NoSQL database, all developed with flexibility, generality, efficiency, and user friendliness in mind. The parameter optimizer gemsfit2 includes the GEMS3K chemical speciation solver ( (http://gems.web.psi.ch/GEMS3K)), which features a comprehensive suite of non-ideal activity- and equation-of-state models of solution phases (aqueous electrolyte, gas and fluid mixtures, solid solutions, (ad)sorption. The gemsfit2 code uses the robust open-source NLopt library for parameter fitting, which provides a selection between several nonlinear optimization algorithms (global, local, gradient-based), and supports large-scale parallelization. The gemsfit2 code can also perform comprehensive statistical analysis of the fitted parameters (basic statistics, sensitivity, Monte Carlo confidence intervals), thus supporting the user with powerful tools for evaluating the quality of the fits and the physical significance of the model parameters. The gfshell2 code provides menu-driven setup of optimization options (data selection, properties to fit and their constraints, measured properties to compare with computed counterparts, and statistics). The practical utility, efficiency, and

  1. House thermal model parameter estimation method for Model Predictive Control applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, Richard Pieter; de Wit, J.B.; Fink, J.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    In this paper we investigate thermal network models with different model orders applied to various Dutch low-energy house types with high and low interior thermal mass and containing floor heating. Parameter estimations are performed by using data from TRNSYS simulations. The paper discusses results

  2. Model-Based Material Parameter Estimation for Terahertz Reflection Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniffin, Gabriel Paul

    Many materials such as drugs and explosives have characteristic spectral signatures in the terahertz (THz) band. These unique signatures imply great promise for spectral detection and classification using THz radiation. While such spectral features are most easily observed in transmission, real-life imaging systems will need to identify materials of interest from reflection measurements, often in non-ideal geometries. One important, yet commonly overlooked source of signal corruption is the etalon effect -- interference phenomena caused by multiple reflections from dielectric layers of packaging and clothing likely to be concealing materials of interest in real-life scenarios. This thesis focuses on the development and implementation of a model-based material parameter estimation technique, primarily for use in reflection spectroscopy, that takes the influence of the etalon effect into account. The technique is adapted from techniques developed for transmission spectroscopy of thin samples and is demonstrated using measured data taken at the Northwest Electromagnetic Research Laboratory (NEAR-Lab) at Portland State University. Further tests are conducted, demonstrating the technique's robustness against measurement noise and common sources of error.

  3. Geomagnetically induced currents in Uruguay: Sensitivity to modelling parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caraballo, R.

    2016-11-01

    According to the traditional wisdom, geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) should occur rarely at mid-to-low latitudes, but in the last decades a growing number of reports have addressed their effects on high-voltage (HV) power grids at mid-to-low latitudes. The growing trend to interconnect national power grids to meet regional integration objectives, may lead to an increase in the size of the present energy transmission networks to form a sort of super-grid at continental scale. Such a broad and heterogeneous super-grid can be exposed to the effects of large GIC if appropriate mitigation actions are not taken into consideration. In the present study, we present GIC estimates for the Uruguayan HV power grid during severe magnetic storm conditions. The GIC intensities are strongly dependent on the rate of variation of the geomagnetic field, conductivity of the ground, power grid resistances and configuration. Calculated GIC are analysed as functions of these parameters. The results show a reasonable agreement with measured data in Brazil and Argentina, thus confirming the reliability of the model. The expansion of the grid leads to a strong increase in GIC intensities in almost all substations. The power grid response to changes in ground conductivity and resistances shows similar results in a minor extent. This leads us to consider GIC as a non-negligible phenomenon in South America. Consequently, GIC must be taken into account in mid-to-low latitude power grids as well.

  4. Parameter and State Estimator for State Space Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruifeng Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a parameter and state estimator for canonical state space systems from measured input-output data. The key is to solve the system state from the state equation and to substitute it into the output equation, eliminating the state variables, and the resulting equation contains only the system inputs and outputs, and to derive a least squares parameter identification algorithm. Furthermore, the system states are computed from the estimated parameters and the input-output data. Convergence analysis using the martingale convergence theorem indicates that the parameter estimates converge to their true values. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to show that the proposed algorithm is effective.

  5. Parameter and state estimator for state space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Ruifeng; Zhuang, Linfan

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a parameter and state estimator for canonical state space systems from measured input-output data. The key is to solve the system state from the state equation and to substitute it into the output equation, eliminating the state variables, and the resulting equation contains only the system inputs and outputs, and to derive a least squares parameter identification algorithm. Furthermore, the system states are computed from the estimated parameters and the input-output data. Convergence analysis using the martingale convergence theorem indicates that the parameter estimates converge to their true values. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to show that the proposed algorithm is effective.

  6. THREE-PARAMETER CREEP DAMAGE CONSTITUTIVE MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN HYDRAULIC TUNNELLING

    OpenAIRE

    Luo Gang; Chen Liang

    2016-01-01

    Rock deformation is a time-dependent process, generally referred to as rheology. Especially for soft rock strata, design and construction of tunnel shall take full account of rheological properties of adjoining rocks. Based on classic three-parameter HK model (generalized Kelvin model), this paper proposes a three-parameter H-K damage model of which parameters attenuate with increase of equivalent strain, provides attenuation equation of model parameters in the first, second and third stage o...

  7. CONSTRUCTION MODELS OF ANTROPOMETRIC AND DERMATOGLIPHIC PARAMETERS OF THE FACILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novikova A.O.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis of constitutional and morpho - functional parameters of a person. The relevance of the chosen topic is substantiated, the problem of determining the functional state of a person, in particular the level of health, is analyzed. Correlation analysis of anthropometric parameters of a person and dermatoglyphic signs of a person is carried out.

  8. Behavioural Pattern of Invertibility Parameter of Arima Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It was deduced that behaviour of invertibility parameter πidepends on the order of autoregressive part (p), the order of integrated part (d), positive and negative values of moving average parameter (ϑ). Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics, Volume 19 (November, 2011), pp 591 – 606 ...

  9. A Note on the Item Information Function of the Four-Parameter Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magis, David

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on four-parameter logistic (4PL) model as an extension of the usual three-parameter logistic (3PL) model with an upper asymptote possibly different from 1. For a given item with fixed item parameters, Lord derived the value of the latent ability level that maximizes the item information function under the 3PL model. The…

  10. Modeling Complex Equilibria in ITC Experiments: Thermodynamic Parameters Estimation for a Three Binding Site Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Vu H.; Buscaglia, Robert; Chaires, Jonathan B.; Lewis, Edwin A.

    2013-01-01

    Isothermal Titration Calorimetry, ITC, is a powerful technique that can be used to estimate a complete set of thermodynamic parameters (e.g. Keq (or ΔG), ΔH, ΔS, and n) for a ligand binding interaction described by a thermodynamic model. Thermodynamic models are constructed by combination of equilibrium constant, mass balance, and charge balance equations for the system under study. Commercial ITC instruments are supplied with software that includes a number of simple interaction models, for example one binding site, two binding sites, sequential sites, and n-independent binding sites. More complex models for example, three or more binding sites, one site with multiple binding mechanisms, linked equilibria, or equilibria involving macromolecular conformational selection through ligand binding need to be developed on a case by case basis by the ITC user. In this paper we provide an algorithm (and a link to our MATLAB program) for the non-linear regression analysis of a multiple binding site model with up to four overlapping binding equilibria. Error analysis demonstrates that fitting ITC data for multiple parameters (e.g. up to nine parameters in the three binding site model) yields thermodynamic parameters with acceptable accuracy. PMID:23262283

  11. Neural Models: An Option to Estimate Seismic Parameters of Accelerograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcántara, L.; García, S.; Ovando-Shelley, E.; Macías, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Seismic instrumentation for recording strong earthquakes, in Mexico, goes back to the 60´s due the activities carried out by the Institute of Engineering at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. However, it was after the big earthquake of September 19, 1985 (M=8.1) when the project of seismic instrumentation assumes a great importance. Currently, strong ground motion networks have been installed for monitoring seismic activity mainly along the Mexican subduction zone and in Mexico City. Nevertheless, there are other major regions and cities that can be affected by strong earthquakes and have not yet begun their seismic instrumentation program or this is still in development.Because of described situation some relevant earthquakes (e.g. Huajuapan de León Oct 24, 1980 M=7.1, Tehuacán Jun 15, 1999 M=7 and Puerto Escondido Sep 30, 1999 M= 7.5) have not been registered properly in some cities, like Puebla and Oaxaca, and that were damaged during those earthquakes. Fortunately, the good maintenance work carried out in the seismic network has permitted the recording of an important number of small events in those cities. So in this research we present a methodology based on the use of neural networks to estimate significant duration and in some cases the response spectra for those seismic events. The neural model developed predicts significant duration in terms of magnitude, epicenter distance, focal depth and soil characterization. Additionally, for response spectra we used a vector of spectral accelerations. For training the model we selected a set of accelerogram records obtained from the small events recorded in the strong motion instruments installed in the cities of Puebla and Oaxaca. The final results show that neural networks as a soft computing tool that use a multi-layer feed-forward architecture provide good estimations of the target parameters and they also have a good predictive capacity to estimate strong ground motion duration and response spectra.

  12. Checking the new IRI model The bottomside B parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Mosert, M; Ezquer, R; Lazo, B; Miro, G

    2002-01-01

    Electron density profiles obtained at Pruhonice (50.0, 15.0), El Arenosillo (37.1, 353.2) and Havana (23, 278) were used to check the bottom-side B parameters BO (thickness parameter) and B1 (shape parameter) predicted by the new IRI - 2000 version. The electron density profiles were derived from ionograms using the ARP technique. The data base includes daytime and nighttime ionograms recorded under different seasonal and solar activity conditions. Comparisons with IRI predictions were also done. The analysis shows that: a) The parameter B1 given by IRI 2000 reproduces better the observed ARP values than the IRI-90 version and b) The observed BO values are in general well reproduced by both IRI versions: IRI-90 and IRI-2000.

  13. Modeling and Dynamic Properties of a Four-Parameter Zener Model Vibration Isolator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-ku Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To install high-performance isolators in a limited installation space, a novel passive isolator based on the four-parameter Zener model is proposed. The proposed isolator consists of three major parts, namely, connecting structure, sealing construction, and upper and lower cavities, all of which are enclosed by four segments of metal bellows with the same diameter. The equivalent stiffness and damping model of the isolator are derived from the dynamic stiffness of the isolation system. Experiments are conducted, and the experiment error is analyzed. Test results verify the validity of the model. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation reveal that the stiffness and damping of the isolator have multiple properties with different exciting amplitudes and structural parameters. In consideration of the design of the structural parameter, the effects of exciting amplitude, damp channel diameter, equivalent cylinder diameter of cavities, sum of the stiffness of the bellows at the end of the isolator, and length of damp channel on the dynamic properties of the isolator are discussed comprehensively. A design method based on the parameter sensitivity of the isolator’s design parameter is proposed. Thus, the novel isolator can be practically applied to engineering and provide a significant contribution in the field.

  14. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  15. New trends in parameter identification for mathematical models

    CERN Document Server

    Leitão, Antonio; Zubelli, Jorge

    2018-01-01

    The Proceedings volume contains 16 contributions to the IMPA conference “New Trends in Parameter Identification for Mathematical Models”, Rio de Janeiro, Oct 30 – Nov 3, 2017, integrating the “Chemnitz Symposium on Inverse Problems on Tour”.  This conference is part of the “Thematic Program on Parameter Identification in Mathematical Models” organized  at IMPA in October and November 2017. One goal is to foster the scientific collaboration between mathematicians and engineers from the Brazialian, European and Asian communities. Main topics are iterative and variational regularization methods in Hilbert and Banach spaces for the stable approximate solution of ill-posed inverse problems, novel methods for parameter identification in partial differential equations, problems of tomography ,  solution of coupled conduction-radiation problems at high temperatures, and the statistical solution of inverse problems with applications in physics.

  16. Temporal variation and scaling of parameters for a monthly hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Wang, Dingbao; Wang, Weiguang

    2018-03-01

    The temporal variation of model parameters is affected by the catchment conditions and has a significant impact on hydrological simulation. This study aims to evaluate the seasonality and downscaling of model parameter across time scales based on monthly and mean annual water balance models with a common model framework. Two parameters of the monthly model, i.e., k and m, are assumed to be time-variant at different months. Based on the hydrological data set from 121 MOPEX catchments in the United States, we firstly analyzed the correlation between parameters (k and m) and catchment properties (NDVI and frequency of rainfall events, α). The results show that parameter k is positively correlated with NDVI or α, while the correlation is opposite for parameter m, indicating that precipitation and vegetation affect monthly water balance by controlling temporal variation of parameters k and m. The multiple linear regression is then used to fit the relationship between ε and the means and coefficient of variations of parameters k and m. Based on the empirical equation and the correlations between the time-variant parameters and NDVI, the mean annual parameter ε is downscaled to monthly k and m. The results show that it has lower NSEs than these from model with time-variant k and m being calibrated through SCE-UA, while for several study catchments, it has higher NSEs than that of the model with constant parameters. The proposed method is feasible and provides a useful tool for temporal scaling of model parameter.

  17. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  18. Zener Diode Compact Model Parameter Extraction Using Xyce-Dakota Optimization.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchheit, Thomas E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilcox, Ian Zachary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandoval, Andrew J [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reza, Shahed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-12-01

    This report presents a detailed process for compact model parameter extraction for DC circuit Zener diodes. Following the traditional approach of Zener diode parameter extraction, circuit model representation is defined and then used to capture the different operational regions of a real diode's electrical behavior. The circuit model contains 9 parameters represented by resistors and characteristic diodes as circuit model elements. The process of initial parameter extraction, the identification of parameter values for the circuit model elements, is presented in a way that isolates the dependencies between certain electrical parameters and highlights both the empirical nature of the extraction and portions of the real diode physical behavior which of the parameters are intended to represent. Optimization of the parameters, a necessary part of a robost parameter extraction process, is demonstrated using a 'Xyce-Dakota' workflow, discussed in more detail in the report. Among other realizations during this systematic approach of electrical model parameter extraction, non-physical solutions are possible and can be difficult to avoid because of the interdependencies between the different parameters. The process steps described are fairly general and can be leveraged for other types of semiconductor device model extractions. Also included in the report are recommendations for experiment setups for generating optimum dataset for model extraction and the Parameter Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Zener diodes.

  19. Lumped Parameter Modeling for Rapid Vibration Response Prototyping and Test Correlation for Electronic Units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Michael B.

    2013-01-01

    Present preliminary work using lumped parameter models to approximate dynamic response of electronic units to random vibration; Derive a general N-DOF model for application to electronic units; Illustrate parametric influence of model parameters; Implication of coupled dynamics for unit/board design; Demonstrate use of model to infer printed wiring board (PWB) dynamics from external chassis test measurement.

  20. Parameter optimization method for the water quality dynamic model based on data-driven theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Shuxiu; Han, Songlin; Sun, Zhaochen

    2015-09-15

    Parameter optimization is important for developing a water quality dynamic model. In this study, we applied data-driven method to select and optimize parameters for a complex three-dimensional water quality model. First, a data-driven model was developed to train the response relationship between phytoplankton and environmental factors based on the measured data. Second, an eight-variable water quality dynamic model was established and coupled to a physical model. Parameter sensitivity analysis was investigated by changing parameter values individually in an assigned range. The above results served as guidelines for the control parameter selection and the simulated result verification. Finally, using the data-driven model to approximate the computational water quality model, we employed the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the control parameters. The optimization routines and results were analyzed and discussed based on the establishment of the water quality model in Xiangshan Bay (XSB). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  2. Transformations among CE–CVM model parameters for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    (CECs) of a higher order system in terms of those of the lower order subsystems and to an independent set of parameters which exclusively represent interactions of the higher order systems. Such a procedure is presen- ted in detail in this communication. Furthermore, the details of transformations required to express the ...

  3. Modelling decremental ramps using 2- and 3-parameter "critical power" models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R Hugh; Billat, Veronique

    2013-01-01

    The "Critical Power" (CP) model of human bioenergetics provides a valuable way to identify both limits of tolerance to exercise and mechanisms that underpin that tolerance. It applies principally to cycling-based exercise, but with suitable adjustments for analogous units it can be applied to other exercise modalities; in particular to incremental ramp exercise. It has not yet been applied to decremental ramps which put heavy early demand on the anaerobic energy supply system. This paper details cycling-based bioenergetics of decremental ramps using 2- and 3-parameter CP models. It derives equations that, for an individual of known CP model parameters, define those combinations of starting intensity and decremental gradient which will or will not lead to exhaustion before ramping to zero; and equations that predict time to exhaustion on those decremental ramps that will. These are further detailed with suitably chosen numerical and graphical illustrations. These equations can be used for parameter estimation from collected data, or to make predictions when parameters are known.

  4. Three-dimensional FEM model of FBGs in PANDA fibers with experimentally determined model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Markus; Hopf, Barbara; Koch, Alexander W.; Roths, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    A 3D-FEM model has been developed to improve the understanding of multi-parameter sensing with Bragg gratings in attached or embedded polarization maintaining fibers. The material properties of the fiber, especially Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the fiber's stress applying parts, are crucial for accurate simulations, but are usually not provided by the manufacturers. A methodology is presented to determine the unknown parameters by using experimental characterizations of the fiber and iterative FEM simulations. The resulting 3D-Model is capable of describing the change in birefringence of the free fiber when exposed to longitudinal strain. In future studies the 3D-FEM model will be employed to study the interaction of PANDA fibers with the surrounding materials in which they are embedded.

  5. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  6. On 4-degree-of-freedom biodynamic models of seated occupants: Lumped-parameter modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xian-Xu; Xu, Shi-Xu; Cheng, Wei; Qian, Li-Jun

    2017-08-01

    It is useful to develop an effective biodynamic model of seated human occupants to help understand the human vibration exposure to transportation vehicle vibrations and to help design and improve the anti-vibration devices and/or test dummies. This study proposed and demonstrated a methodology for systematically identifying the best configuration or structure of a 4-degree-of-freedom (4DOF) human vibration model and for its parameter identification. First, an equivalent simplification expression for the models was made. Second, all of the possible 23 structural configurations of the models were identified. Third, each of them was calibrated using the frequency response functions recommended in a biodynamic standard. An improved version of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) based on Pareto optimization principle was used to determine the model parameters. Finally, a model evaluation criterion proposed in this study was used to assess the models and to identify the best one, which was based on both the goodness of curve fits and comprehensive goodness of the fits. The identified top configurations were better than those reported in the literature. This methodology may also be extended and used to develop the models with other DOFs.

  7. An Investigation of Invariance Properties of One, Two and Three Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.A. Awopeju

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The study investigated the invariance properties of one, two and three parame-ter logistic item response theory models. It examined the best fit among one parameter logistic (1PL, two-parameter logistic (2PL and three-parameter logistic (3PL IRT models for SSCE, 2008 in Mathematics. It also investigated the degree of invariance of the IRT models based item difficulty parameter estimates in SSCE in Mathematics across different samples of examinees and examined the degree of invariance of the IRT models based item discrimination estimates in SSCE in Mathematics across different samples of examinees. In order to achieve the set objectives, 6000 students (3000 males and 3000 females were drawn from the population of 35262 who wrote the 2008 paper 1 Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (SSCE in Mathematics organized by National Examination Council (NECO. The item difficulty and item discrimination parameter estimates from CTT and IRT were tested for invariance using BLOG MG 3 and correlation analysis was achieved using SPSS version 20. The research findings were that two parameter model IRT item difficulty and discrimination parameter estimates exhibited invariance property consistently across different samples and that 2-parameter model was suitable for all samples of examinees unlike one-parameter model and 3-parameter model.

  8. Numerical Modeling of Piezoelectric Transducers Using Physical Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cappon, H.; Keesman, K.J.

    2012-01-01

    Design of ultrasonic equipment is frequently facilitated with numerical models. These numerical models, however, need a calibration step, because usually not all characteristics of the materials used are known. Characterization of material properties combined with numerical simulations and

  9. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PANCHIGA

    2016-09-28

    Sep 28, 2016 ... by methanol. In this study, the unstructured models based on growth kinetic equation, fed-batch mass balance and constancy of cell and protein yields were developed and constructed following the substrates, glycerol and methanol. The growth model on glycerol is mostly published while the growth model ...

  10. Parameter study of a model for NOx emissions from PFBC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anker Degn; Johnsson, Jan Erik

    1996-01-01

    Simulations with a mathematical model of a pressurized bubbling fluidized bed combustor (PFBC) combined with a kinetic model for NO formation and reduction are presented and discussed. The kinetic model for NO formation and reduction considers NO and NH3 as the fixed nitrogen species, and include...

  11. Kinetic models and parameters estimation study of biomass and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth kinetics and modeling of ethanol production from inulin by Pichia caribbica (KC977491) were studied in a batch system. Unstructured models were proposed using the logistic equation for growth, the Luedeking-Piret equation for ethanol production and modified Leudeking-Piret model for substrate consumption.

  12. Kinetic models and parameters estimation study of biomass and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    compaq

    2017-01-11

    Jan 11, 2017 ... The growth kinetics and modeling of ethanol production from inulin by Pichia caribbica (KC977491) were studied in a batch system. Unstructured models were proposed using the logistic equation for growth, the Luedeking-Piret equation for ethanol production and modified Leudeking-Piret model for.

  13. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  14. Gas ultracentrifuge separative parameters modeling using hybrid neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crus, Maria Ursulina de Lima

    2005-01-01

    A hybrid neural network is developed for the calculation of the separative performance of an ultracentrifuge. A feed forward neural network is trained to estimate the internal flow parameters of a gas ultracentrifuge, and then these parameters are applied in the diffusion equation. For this study, a 573 experimental data set is used to establish the relation between the separative performance and the controlled variables. The process control variables considered are: the feed flow rate F, the cut θ and the product pressure Pp. The mechanical arrangements consider the radial waste scoop dimension, the rotating baffle size D s and the axial feed location Z E . The methodology was validated through the comparison of the calculated separative performance with experimental values. This methodology may be applied to other processes, just by adapting the phenomenological procedures. (author)

  15. Parameter Uncertainty for Aircraft Aerodynamic Modeling using Recursive Least Squares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Morelli, Eugene A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method was demonstrated for determining accurate uncertainty levels of stability and control derivatives estimated using recursive least squares and time-domain data. The method uses a recursive formulation of the residual autocorrelation to account for colored residuals, which are routinely encountered in aircraft parameter estimation and change the predicted uncertainties. Simulation data and flight test data for a subscale jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the approach. Results showed that the corrected uncertainties matched the observed scatter in the parameter estimates, and did so more accurately than conventional uncertainty estimates that assume white residuals. Only small differences were observed between batch estimates and recursive estimates at the end of the maneuver. It was also demonstrated that the autocorrelation could be reduced to a small number of lags to minimize computation and memory storage requirements without significantly degrading the accuracy of predicted uncertainty levels.

  16. Order parameter model for unstable multilane traffic flow

    OpenAIRE

    Lubashevsky, Ihor A.; Mahnke, Reinhard

    1999-01-01

    We discuss a phenomenological approach to the description of unstable vehicle motion on multilane highways that explains in a simple way the observed sequence of the phase transitions "free flow -> synchronized motion -> jam" as well as the hysteresis in the transition "free flow synchronized motion". We introduce a new variable called order parameter that accounts for possible correlations in the vehicle motion at different lanes. So, it is principally due to the "many-body" effects in the ...

  17. Connecting Global to Local Parameters in Barred Galaxy Models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    The velocity and the angular velocity units are 10 km/s and 10 km/s/kpc, respectively while G is equal to unity. Our test particle is a star of mass = 1. Therefore, the energy unit (per unit mass) is 100(km/s)2. In these units the values of the parameters are α = 12 kpc,b = 2,cb = 1.5 kpc,Md = 9500 and Mb = 3000. It is evident that ...

  18. Entropy Parameter M in Modeling a Flow Duration Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A flow duration curve (FDC is widely used for predicting water supply, hydropower, environmental flow, sediment load, and pollutant load. Among different methods of constructing an FDC, the entropy-based method, developed recently, is appealing because of its several desirable characteristics, such as simplicity, flexibility, and statistical basis. This method contains a parameter, called entropy parameter M, which constitutes the basis for constructing the FDC. Since M is related to the ratio of the average streamflow to the maximum streamflow which, in turn, is related to the drainage area, it may be possible to determine M a priori and construct an FDC for ungauged basins. This paper, therefore, analyzed the characteristics of M in both space and time using streamflow data from 73 gauging stations in the Brazos River basin, Texas, USA. Results showed that the M values were impacted by reservoir operation and possibly climate change. The values were fluctuating, but relatively stable, after the operation of the reservoirs. Parameter M was found to change inversely with the ratio of average streamflow to the maximum streamflow. When there was an extreme event, there occurred a jump in the M value. Further, spatially, M had a larger value if the drainage area was small.

  19. Optimization of process parameters through GRA, TOPSIS and RSA models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Nipanikar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the effect of cutting parameters on the surface roughness and flank wear during machining of titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V ELI( Extra Low Interstitial in minimum quantity lubrication environment by using PVD TiAlN insert. Full factorial design of experiment was used for the machining 2 factors 3 levels and 2 factors 2 levels. Turning parameters studied were cutting speed (50, 65, 80 m/min, feed (0.08, 0.15, 0.2 mm/rev and depth of cut 0.5 mm constant. The results show that 44.61 % contribution of feed and 43.57 % contribution of cutting speed on surface roughness also 53.16 % contribution of cutting tool and 26.47 % contribution of cutting speed on tool flank wear. Grey relational analysis and TOPSIS method suggest the optimum combinations of machining parameters as cutting speed: 50 m/min, feed: 0.8 mm/rev., cutting tool: PVD TiAlN, cutting fluid: Palm oi

  20. Parameter Extraction for PSpice Models by means of an Automated Optimization Tool – An IGBT model Study Case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suárez, Carlos Gómez; Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Iannuzzo, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    An original tool for parameter extraction of PSpice models has been released, enabling a simple parameter identification. A physics-based IGBT model is used to demonstrate that the optimization tool is capable of generating a set of parameters which predicts the steady-state and switching behavior...

  1. Atomic modeling of cryo-electron microscopy reconstructions--joint refinement of model and imaging parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Michael S; Trzynka, Andrew; Chapman, Brynmor K

    2013-04-01

    When refining the fit of component atomic structures into electron microscopic reconstructions, use of a resolution-dependent atomic density function makes it possible to jointly optimize the atomic model and imaging parameters of the microscope. Atomic density is calculated by one-dimensional Fourier transform of atomic form factors convoluted with a microscope envelope correction and a low-pass filter, allowing refinement of imaging parameters such as resolution, by optimizing the agreement of calculated and experimental maps. A similar approach allows refinement of atomic displacement parameters, providing indications of molecular flexibility even at low resolution. A modest improvement in atomic coordinates is possible following optimization of these additional parameters. Methods have been implemented in a Python program that can be used in stand-alone mode for rigid-group refinement, or embedded in other optimizers for flexible refinement with stereochemical restraints. The approach is demonstrated with refinements of virus and chaperonin structures at resolutions of 9 through 4.5 Å, representing regimes where rigid-group and fully flexible parameterizations are appropriate. Through comparisons to known crystal structures, flexible fitting by RSRef is shown to be an improvement relative to other methods and to generate models with all-atom rms accuracies of 1.5-2.5 Å at resolutions of 4.5-6 Å. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  3. Weibull Parameters Estimation Based on Physics of Failure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostandyan, Erik; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Reliability estimation procedures are discussed for the example of fatigue development in solder joints using a physics of failure model. The accumulated damage is estimated based on a physics of failure model, the Rainflow counting algorithm and the Miner’s rule. A threshold model is used...... for degradation modeling and failure criteria determination. The time dependent accumulated damage is assumed linearly proportional to the time dependent degradation level. It is observed that the deterministic accumulated damage at the level of unity closely estimates the characteristic fatigue life of Weibull...

  4. The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Khavaran, Abbas

    2010-01-01

    Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

  5. Parameter Estimation and Prediction of a Nonlinear Storage Model: an algebraic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    Generally, parameters that are nonlinear in system models are estimated by nonlinear least-squares optimization algorithms. In this paper, if a nonlinear discrete-time model with a polynomial quotient structure in input, output, and parameters, a method is proposed to re-parameterize the model such

  6. Identification of the 1PL Model with Guessing Parameter: Parametric and Semi-Parametric Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martin, Ernesto; Rolin, Jean-Marie; Castro, Luis M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study the identification of a particular case of the 3PL model, namely when the discrimination parameters are all constant and equal to 1. We term this model, 1PL-G model. The identification analysis is performed under three different specifications. The first specification considers the abilities as unknown parameters. It is…

  7. Connecting Global to Local Parameters in Barred Galaxy Models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Abstract. We present connections between global and local parame- ters in a realistic dynamical model, describing motion in a barred galaxy. Expanding the global model in the vicinity of a stable Lagrange point, we find the potential of a two-dimensional perturbed harmonic oscillator, which describes local motion near the ...

  8. Mathematical modelling in blood coagulation : simulation and parameter estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.J.H. Stortelder (Walter); P.W. Hemker (Piet); H.C. Hemker

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThis paper describes the mathematical modelling of a part of the blood coagulation mechanism. The model includes the activation of factor X by a purified enzyme from Russel's Viper Venom (RVV), factor V and prothrombin, and also comprises the inactivation of the products formed. In this

  9. Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

    2015-10-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Parameters extraction for the one-diode model of a solar cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabadus, Andreea; Mihailetchi, Valentin; Paulescu, Marius

    2017-12-01

    This paper is focused on the numerical algorithms for solving the one-diode model of a crystalline solar cell. Numerical experiments show that, generally, the algorithms reproduce accurately the I-V characteristics while the modeled parameters (the diode saturation current, serial resistance and the diode ideality factor) experience a large dispersion. The question arising here is: which is the correct set of the modeled parameters? In order to address this issue, the extracted parameters are compared with the measured ones for a silicon solar cell produced at ISC Konstanz. An attempt to solve numerically the one-diode model for accurate parameters extraction is discussed.

  11. Model Predictive Control of Nonlinear Parameter Varying Systems via Receding Horizon Control Lyapunov Functions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sznaier, Mario

    2001-01-01

    .... In this chapter we propose a suboptimal regulator for nonlinear parameter varying, control affine systems based upon the combination of model predictive and control Lyapunov function techniques...

  12. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  13. Parameter estimation of component reliability models in PSA model of Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.

    2001-01-01

    In the paper, the uncertainty analysis of component reliability models for independent failures is shown. The present approach for parameter estimation of component reliability models in NPP Krsko is presented. Mathematical approaches for different types of uncertainty analyses are introduced and used in accordance with some predisposed requirements. Results of the uncertainty analyses are shown in an example for time-related components. As the most appropriate uncertainty analysis proved the Bayesian estimation with the numerical estimation of a posterior, which can be approximated with some appropriate probability distribution, in this paper with lognormal distribution.(author)

  14. Parameter dimensionality reduction of a conceptual model for streamflow prediction in Canadian, snowmelt dominated ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Richard; Poissant, Dominique; Brissette, François

    2015-11-01

    This paper evaluated the effects of parametric reduction of a hydrological model on five regionalization methods and 267 catchments in the province of Quebec, Canada. The Sobol' variance-based sensitivity analysis was used to rank the model parameters by their influence on the model results and sequential parameter fixing was performed. The reduction in parameter correlations improved parameter identifiability, however this improvement was found to be minimal and was not transposed in the regionalization mode. It was shown that 11 of the HSAMI models' 23 parameters could be fixed with little or no loss in regionalization skill. The main conclusions were that (1) the conceptual lumped models used in this study did not represent physical processes sufficiently well to warrant parameter reduction for physics-based regionalization methods for the Canadian basins examined and (2) catchment descriptors did not adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes, namely snow accumulation and melt.

  15. Sensitivity analysis for the study of influential parameters in tyre models

    OpenAIRE

    Kiébré, Rimyaledgo; Anstett-Collin, Floriane; Basset, Michel

    2011-01-01

    International audience; This paper studies two tyre models, the Fiala model and the Pacejka model. Both models are nonlinear and depend on parameters which must be identified from measurement data. A major problem is to efficiently prepare and plan the experiments. It is necessary to determine the parameters which have the greatest influence on the model output, and account for the output uncertainty which must be reduced. Therefore, the methodology presented here will help to carry out a var...

  16. A latent parameter node-centric model for spatial networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas D Larusso

    Full Text Available Spatial networks, in which nodes and edges are embedded in space, play a vital role in the study of complex systems. For example, many social networks attach geo-location information to each user, allowing the study of not only topological interactions between users, but spatial interactions as well. The defining property of spatial networks is that edge distances are associated with a cost, which may subtly influence the topology of the network. However, the cost function over distance is rarely known, thus developing a model of connections in spatial networks is a difficult task. In this paper, we introduce a novel model for capturing the interaction between spatial effects and network structure. Our approach represents a unique combination of ideas from latent variable statistical models and spatial network modeling. In contrast to previous work, we view the ability to form long/short-distance connections to be dependent on the individual nodes involved. For example, a node's specific surroundings (e.g. network structure and node density may make it more likely to form a long distance link than other nodes with the same degree. To capture this information, we attach a latent variable to each node which represents a node's spatial reach. These variables are inferred from the network structure using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We experimentally evaluate our proposed model on 4 different types of real-world spatial networks (e.g. transportation, biological, infrastructure, and social. We apply our model to the task of link prediction and achieve up to a 35% improvement over previous approaches in terms of the area under the ROC curve. Additionally, we show that our model is particularly helpful for predicting links between nodes with low degrees. In these cases, we see much larger improvements over previous models.

  17. EMF 7 model comparisons: key relationships and parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hickman, B.G.

    1983-12-01

    A simplified textbook model of aggregate demand and supply interprets the similarities and differences in the price and income responses of the various EMF 7 models to oil and policy shocks. The simplified model is a marriage of Hicks' classic IS-LM formulation of the Keynesian theory of effective demand with a rudimentary model of aggregate supply, combining a structural Phillips curve for wage determination and a markup theory of price determination. The reduced-form income equation from the fix-price IS-LM model is used to define an aggregate demand (AD) locus in P-Y space, showing alternative pairs of the implicit GNP deflator and real GNP which would simultaneously satisfy the saving-investment identity and the condition for money market equilibrium. An aggregate supply (AS) schedule is derived by a similar reduction of relations between output and labor demand, unemployment and wage inflation, and the wage-price-productivity nexus governing markup pricing. Given a particular econometric model it is possible to derive IS and LM curves algebraically. The resulting locuses would show alternative combinations of interest rate and real income which equilibrate real income identity on the IS side and the demand and supply of money on the LM side. By further substitution the reduced form fix-price income relation could be obtained for direct quantification of the AD locus. The AS schedule is obtainable by algebraic reduction of the structural supply side equations.

  18. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: A Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-07-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.

  19. Mirror symmetry for two-parameter models. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candelas, Philip; Font, Anamaria; Katz, Sheldon; Morrison, David R.

    1994-01-01

    We describe in detail the space of the two Kaehler parameters of the Calabi-Yau manifold P 4 (1,1,1,6,9) [D. R. Morrison, 1993] by exploiting mirror symmetry. The large complex structure limit of the mirror, which corresponds to the classical large radius limit, is found by studying the monodromy of the periods about the discriminant locus, the boundary of the moduli space corresponding to singular Calabi-Yau manifolds. A symplectic basis of periods is found and the action of the Sp(6, Z) generators of the modular group is determined. From the mirror map we compute the instanton expansion of the Yukawa couplings and the generalized N=2 index, arriving at the numbers of instantons of genus zero and genus one of each bidegree. We find that these numbers can be negative, even in genus zero. We also investigate an SL(2, Z) symmetry that acts on a boundary of the moduli space. ((orig.))

  20. Mathematical modeling to reconstruct Elastic and geoelectrical parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. V. Kiselev

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The monitoring of the underground medium requires estimation of accuracy of the methods used. Numerical simulation of the solution of 2D inverse problem on the reconstruction of seismic and electrical parameters of local (comparable in size with the wavelength inhomogeneities by the diffraction tomography method based upon the first order Born approximation is considered. The direct problems for the Lame and Maxwell equations are solved by the finite difference method that allows us to take correctly into account the diffraction phenomenon produced by the target inhomogeneities with simple and complex geometry. For reconstruction of the local inhomogeneities the algebraic methods and the optimizing procedures are used. The investigation includes a parametric representation of inhomogeneities by the simple and complex functions. The results of estimation of the accuracy of the reconstruction of elastic inhomogeneities and inhomogeneities of electrical conductivity by the diffraction tomography method are represented.

  1. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. NASA Workshop on Distributed Parameter Modeling and Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Virginia B. (Compiler); Keckler, Claude R. (Compiler)

    1994-01-01

    Although significant advances have been made in modeling and controlling flexible systems, there remains a need for improvements in model accuracy and in control performance. The finite element models of flexible systems are unduly complex and are almost intractable to optimum parameter estimation for refinement using experimental data. Distributed parameter or continuum modeling offers some advantages and some challenges in both modeling and control. Continuum models often result in a significantly reduced number of model parameters, thereby enabling optimum parameter estimation. The dynamic equations of motion of continuum models provide the advantage of allowing the embedding of the control system dynamics, thus forming a complete set of system dynamics. There is also increased insight provided by the continuum model approach.

  3. Positioning performance of the NTCM model driven by GPS Klobuchar model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, Mohammed Mainul; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens

    2018-03-01

    Users of the Global Positioning System (GPS) utilize the Ionospheric Correction Algorithm (ICA) also known as Klobuchar model for correcting ionospheric signal delay or range error. Recently, we developed an ionosphere correction algorithm called NTCM-Klobpar model for single frequency GNSS applications. The model is driven by a parameter computed from GPS Klobuchar model and consecutively can be used instead of the GPS Klobuchar model for ionospheric corrections. In the presented work we compare the positioning solutions obtained using NTCM-Klobpar with those using the Klobuchar model. Our investigation using worldwide ground GPS data from a quiet and a perturbed ionospheric and geomagnetic activity period of 17 days each shows that the 24-hour prediction performance of the NTCM-Klobpar is better than the GPS Klobuchar model in global average. The root mean squared deviation of the 3D position errors are found to be about 0.24 and 0.45 m less for the NTCM-Klobpar compared to the GPS Klobuchar model during quiet and perturbed condition, respectively. The presented algorithm has the potential to continuously improve the accuracy of GPS single frequency mass market devices with only little software modification.

  4. Effects of model schematisation, geometry and parameter values on urban flood modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vojinovic, Z; Seyoum, S D; Mwalwaka, J M; Price, R K

    2011-01-01

    One-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic models have been used as a standard industry practice for urban flood modelling work for many years. More recently, however, model formulations have included a 1D representation of the main channels and a 2D representation of the floodplains. Since the physical process of describing exchanges of flows with the floodplains can be represented in different ways, the predictive capability of different modelling approaches can also vary. The present paper explores effects of some of the issues that concern urban flood modelling work. Impacts from applying different model schematisation, geometry and parameter values were investigated. The study has mainly focussed on exploring how different Digital Terrain Model (DTM) resolution, presence of different features on DTM such as roads and building structures and different friction coefficients affect the simulation results. Practical implications of these issues are analysed and illustrated in a case study from St Maarten, N.A. The results from this study aim to provide users of numerical models with information that can be used in the analyses of flooding processes in urban areas.

  5. Water quality modelling for ephemeral rivers: Model development and parameter assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2010-11-01

    SummaryRiver water quality models can be valuable tools for the assessment and management of receiving water body quality. However, such water quality models require accurate model calibration in order to specify model parameters. Reliable model calibration requires an extensive array of water quality data that are generally rare and resource-intensive, both economically and in terms of human resources, to collect. In the case of small rivers, such data are scarce due to the fact that these rivers are generally considered too insignificant, from a practical and economic viewpoint, to justify the investment of such considerable time and resources. As a consequence, the literature contains very few studies on the water quality modelling for small rivers, and such studies as have been published are fairly limited in scope. In this paper, a simplified river water quality model is presented. The model is an extension of the Streeter-Phelps model and takes into account the physico-chemical and biological processes most relevant to modelling the quality of receiving water bodies (i.e., degradation of dissolved carbonaceous substances, ammonium oxidation, algal uptake and denitrification, dissolved oxygen balance, including depletion by degradation processes and supply by physical reaeration and photosynthetic production). The model has been applied to an Italian case study, the Oreto river (IT), which has been the object of an Italian research project aimed at assessing the river's water quality. For this reason, several monitoring campaigns have been previously carried out in order to collect water quantity and quality data on this river system. In particular, twelve river cross sections were monitored, and both flow and water quality data were collected for each cross section. The results of the calibrated model show satisfactory agreement with the measured data and results reveal important differences between the parameters used to model small rivers as compared to

  6. Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

  7. Assessing models for parameters of the Ångström-Prescott formula in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoying; Xu, Yinlong; Zhong, Xiuli

    2012-01-01

    Application of the Ångström–Prescott (A–P) model, one of the best rated global solar irradiation (Rs) models based on sunshine, is often limited by the lack of model parameters. Increasing the availability of its parameters in the absence of Rs measurement provides an effective way to overcome...... this problem. Although some models relating the A–P parameters to other variables have been developed, they generally lack worldwide validity test. Using data from 80 sites covering three agro-climatic zones in China, we evaluated seven models that relate the parameters to annual average of relative sunshine...... in zone I in predicting Rs, indicating larger errors in humid climates. Since most productive agricultural areas in China are located in zone I, developing parameter models tailored to this zone would be valuable to improve Rs accuracy....

  8. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    by a simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been chosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore...

  9. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    1990-01-01

    by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore...

  10. Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Mixtures of Truncated Exponentials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian networks with mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTEs) support efficient inference algorithms and provide a flexible way of modeling hybrid domains (domains containing both discrete and continuous variables). On the other hand, estimating an MTE from data has turned out to be a difficult...

  11. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to describe and predict the growth and expression of recombinant proteins by using a genetically modified Pichia pastoris, we developed a number of unstructured models based on growth kinetic equation, fed-batch mass balance and the assumptions of constant cell and protein yields. The growth of P. pastoris on ...

  12. Continuum model for masonry: Parameter estimation and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lourenço, P.B.; Rots, J.G.; Blaauwendraad, J.

    1998-01-01

    A novel yield criterion that includes different strengths along each material axis is presented. The criterion includes two different fracture energies in tension and two different fracture energies in compression. The ability of the model to represent the inelastic behavior of orthotropic materials

  13. Land Building Models: Uncertainty in and Sensitivity to Input Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Vicksburg, MS: US Army Engineer Research and Development Center. An electronic copy of this CHETN is available from http://chl.erdc.usace.army.mil/chetn...Nourishment Module, Chapter 8. In Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) Model of Louisiana Coastal Area ( LCA ) Comprehensive

  14. Coupled modelling of underground structures using internal parameters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Procházka, P.; Trčková, Jiřina; Kuklík, P.; Kalousková, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 13 (2004), s. 23-30 ISSN 1214-9691 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2119001 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3046908 Keywords : physical and numerical modelling * stability * tunnel Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering

  15. Dynamics of 'abc' and 'qd' constant parameters induction generator model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fajardo-R, L.A.; Medina, A.; Iov, F.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, parametric sensibility effects on dynamics of the induction generator in the presence of local perturbations are investigated. The study is conducted in a 3x2 MW wind park dealing with abc, qd0 and qd reduced order, induction generator model respectively, and with fluxes as state...

  16. Winkler's single-parameter subgrade model from the perspective of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... tensor are taken into consideration, whereas the shear stresses are intentionally dropped with the purpose of providing a useful perspective, with which Winkler's model and its associated coefficient of subgrade reaction can be viewed. The formulation takes into account the variation of the elasticity modulus with depth.

  17. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  18. Anatomical parameters for musculoskeletal modeling of the hand and wrist

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mirakhorlo, M. (Mojtaba); Visser, Judith M A; Goislard de Monsabert, B. A A X; van der Helm, F.C.T.; Maas, H.; Veeger, H. E J

    2016-01-01

    A musculoskeletal model of the hand and wrist can provide valuable biomechanical and neurophysiological insights, relevant for clinicians and ergonomists. Currently, no consistent data-set exists comprising the full anatomy of these upper extremity parts. The aim of this study was to collect a

  19. Numerical Modelling of Rubber Vibration Isolators: identification of material parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijers, C.A.J.; Noordman, Bram; de Boer, Andries; Ivanov, N.I.; Crocker, M.J.

    2004-01-01

    Rubber vibration isolators are used for vibration isolation of engines at high frequencies. To make a good prediction regarding the characteristics of a vibration isolator in the design process, numerical models can be used. However, for a reliable prediction of the dynamic behavior of the isolator,

  20. Ecohydrological model parameter selection for stream health evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, Sean A; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Ross, Dennis M; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Lizhu; Esfahanian, Abdol-Hossein

    2015-04-01

    Variable selection is a critical step in development of empirical stream health prediction models. This study develops a framework for selecting important in-stream variables to predict four measures of biological integrity: total number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa, family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic integrity (HBI), and fish index of biotic integrity (IBI). Over 200 flow regime and water quality variables were calculated using the Hydrologic Index Tool (HIT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Streams of the River Raisin watershed in Michigan were grouped using the Strahler stream classification system (orders 1-3 and orders 4-6), k-means clustering technique (two clusters: C1 and C2), and all streams (one grouping). For each grouping, variable selection was performed using Bayesian variable selection, principal component analysis, and Spearman's rank correlation. Following selection of best variable sets, models were developed to predict the measures of biological integrity using adaptive-neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), a technique well-suited to complex, nonlinear ecological problems. Multiple unique variable sets were identified, all which differed by selection method and stream grouping. Final best models were mostly built using the Bayesian variable selection method. The most effective stream grouping method varied by health measure, although k-means clustering and grouping by stream order were always superior to models built without grouping. Commonly selected variables were related to streamflow magnitude, rate of change, and seasonal nitrate concentration. Each best model was effective in simulating stream health observations, with EPT taxa validation R2 ranging from 0.67 to 0.92, FIBI ranging from 0.49 to 0.85, HBI from 0.56 to 0.75, and fish IBI at 0.99 for all best models. The comprehensive variable selection and modeling process proposed here is a robust method that extends our

  1. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  2. Comparative study for different statistical models to optimize cutting parameters of CNC end milling machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.; Al-Bossly, A.

    2010-01-01

    In machining operation, the quality of surface finish is an important requirement for many work pieces. Thus, that is very important to optimize cutting parameters for controlling the required manufacturing quality. Surface roughness parameter (Ra) in mechanical parts depends on turning parameters during the turning process. In the development of predictive models, cutting parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut, are considered as model variables. For this purpose, this study focuses on comparing various machining experiments which using CNC vertical machining center, work pieces was aluminum 6061. Multiple regression models are used to predict the surface roughness at different experiments.

  3. Cosmological-model-parameter determination from satellite-acquired type Ia and IIP Supernova Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Podariu, Silviu; Nugent, Peter; Ratra, Bharat

    2000-01-01

    We examine the constraints that satellite-acquired Type Ia and IIP supernova apparent magnitude versus redshift data will place on cosmological model parameters in models with and without a constant or time-variable cosmological constant lambda. High-quality data which could be acquired in the near future will result in tight constraints on these parameters. For example, if all other parameters of a spatially-flat model with a constant lambda are known, the supernova data should constrain the non-relativistic matter density parameter omega to better than 1 (2, 0.5) at 1 sigma with neutral (worst case, best case) assumptions about data quality

  4. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis for a mathematical model with time delays of leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cândea, Doina; Halanay, Andrei; Rǎdulescu, Rodica; Tǎlmaci, Rodica

    2017-01-01

    We consider a system of nonlinear delay differential equations that describes the interaction between three competing cell populations: healthy, leukemic and anti-leukemia T cells involved in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) under treatment with Imatinib. The aim of this work is to establish which model parameters are the most important in the success or failure of leukemia remission under treatment using a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. For the most significant parameters of the model which affect the evolution of CML disease during Imatinib treatment we try to estimate the realistic values using some experimental data. For these parameters, steady states are calculated and their stability is analyzed and biologically interpreted.

  5. Optimization of Soil Hydraulic Model Parameters Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Data: An Integrated Multidisciplinary Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pauwels, Valentijn; Balenzano, Anna; Satalino, Giuseppe

    2009-01-01

    that no direct relationships between the remote-sensing observations, more specifically radar backscatter values, and the parameter values can be derived. However, land surface models can provide these relationships. The objective of this paper is to retrieve a number of soil physical model parameters through...... model is, thus, used to determine the relationship between the soil physical parameters and the remote-sensing data. An analysis is then performed, relating the retrieved soil parameters to the soil texture data available over the study area. The results of the study show that there is a potential...

  6. Model-based parameter estimation using cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldt, T.; Shim, E. B.; Kamm, R. D.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a cardiovascular model that is capable of simulating the short-term (response to gravitational stress and a gradient-based optimization method that allows for the automated estimation of model parameters from simulated or experimental data. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the transient heart rate response to determine which parameters of the model impact the heart rate dynamics significantly. We subsequently include only those parameters in the estimation routine that impact the transient heart rate dynamics substantially. We apply the estimation algorithm to both simulated and real data and showed that restriction to the 20 most important parameters does not impair our ability to match the data.

  7. Characterizing parameter sensitivity and uncertainty for a snow model across hydroclimatic regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-01-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the SNOW17 model to forecast snow accumulation and ablation processes in snow-dominated watersheds nationwide. Successful application of the SNOW17 relies heavily on site-specific estimation of model parameters. The current study undertakes a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of SNOW17 model parameters using forcing and snow water equivalent (SWE) data from 12 sites with differing meteorological and geographic characteristics. The Generalized Sensitivity Analysis and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm are utilized to explore the parameter space and assess model parametric and predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that SNOW17 parameter sensitivity and uncertainty generally varies between sites. Of the six hydroclimatic characteristics studied, only air temperature shows strong correlation with the sensitivity and uncertainty ranges of two parameters, while precipitation is highly correlated with the uncertainty of one parameter. Posterior marginal distributions of two parameters are also shown to be site-dependent in terms of distribution type. The SNOW17 prediction ensembles generated by the DREAM-derived posterior parameter sets contain most of the observed SWE. The proposed uncertainty analysis provides posterior parameter information on parameter uncertainty and distribution types that can serve as a foundation for a data assimilation framework for hydrologic models.

  8. A new sewage exfiltration model--parameters and calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpf, Christian; Krebs, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Exfiltration of waste water from sewer systems represents a potential danger for the soil and the aquifer. Common models, which are used to describe the exfiltration process, are based on the law of Darcy, extended by a more or less detailed consideration of the expansion of leaks, the characteristics of the soil and the colmation layer. But, due to the complexity of the exfiltration process, the calibration of these models includes a significant uncertainty. In this paper, a new exfiltration approach is introduced, which implements the dynamics of the clogging process and the structural conditions near sewer leaks. The calibration is realised according to experimental studies and analysis of groundwater infiltration to sewers. Furthermore, exfiltration rates and the sensitivity of the approach are estimated and evaluated, respectively, by Monte-Carlo simulations.

  9. Application of Parameter Estimation for Diffusions and Mixture Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nolsøe, Kim

    error models. This is obtained by constructing an estimating function through projections of some chosen function of Yti+1 onto functions of previous observations Yti ; : : : ; Yt0 . The process of interest Xti+1 is partially observed through a measurement equation Yti+1 = h(Xti+1)+ noice, where h......(:) is restricted to be a polynomial. Through a simulation study we compare for the CIR process the obtained estimator with an estimator derived from utilizing the extended Kalman filter. The simulation study shows that the two estimation methods perform equally well.......The first part of this thesis proposes a method to determine the preferred number of structures, their proportions and the corresponding geometrical shapes of an m-membered ring molecule. This is obtained by formulating a statistical model for the data and constructing an algorithm which samples...

  10. MEMS 3-DoF gyroscope design, modeling and simulation through equivalent circuit lumped parameter model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mian, Muhammad Umer, E-mail: umermian@gmail.com; Khir, M. H. Md.; Tang, T. B. [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia); Dennis, John Ojur [Department of Fundamental & Applied Sciences, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia); Riaz, Kashif; Iqbal, Abid [Faculty of Electronics Engineering, GIK Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology, Topi, Khyber Pakhtunkhaw (Pakistan); Bazaz, Shafaat A. [Department of Computer Science, Center for Advance Studies in Engineering, Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2015-07-22

    Pre-fabrication, behavioural and performance analysis with computer aided design (CAD) tools is a common and fabrication cost effective practice. In light of this we present a simulation methodology for a dual-mass oscillator based 3 Degree of Freedom (3-DoF) MEMS gyroscope. 3-DoF Gyroscope is modeled through lumped parameter models using equivalent circuit elements. These equivalent circuits consist of elementary components which are counterpart of their respective mechanical components, used to design and fabricate 3-DoF MEMS gyroscope. Complete designing of equivalent circuit model, mathematical modeling and simulation are being presented in this paper. Behaviors of the equivalent lumped models derived for the proposed device design are simulated in MEMSPRO T-SPICE software. Simulations are carried out with the design specifications following design rules of the MetalMUMPS fabrication process. Drive mass resonant frequencies simulated by this technique are 1.59 kHz and 2.05 kHz respectively, which are close to the resonant frequencies found by the analytical formulation of the gyroscope. The lumped equivalent circuit modeling technique proved to be a time efficient modeling technique for the analysis of complex MEMS devices like 3-DoF gyroscopes. The technique proves to be an alternative approach to the complex and time consuming couple field analysis Finite Element Analysis (FEA) previously used.

  11. MEMS 3-DoF gyroscope design, modeling and simulation through equivalent circuit lumped parameter model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Muhammad Umer; Dennis, John Ojur; Khir, M. H. Md.; Riaz, Kashif; Iqbal, Abid; Bazaz, Shafaat A.; Tang, T. B.

    2015-07-01

    Pre-fabrication, behavioural and performance analysis with computer aided design (CAD) tools is a common and fabrication cost effective practice. In light of this we present a simulation methodology for a dual-mass oscillator based 3 Degree of Freedom (3-DoF) MEMS gyroscope. 3-DoF Gyroscope is modeled through lumped parameter models using equivalent circuit elements. These equivalent circuits consist of elementary components which are counterpart of their respective mechanical components, used to design and fabricate 3-DoF MEMS gyroscope. Complete designing of equivalent circuit model, mathematical modeling and simulation are being presented in this paper. Behaviors of the equivalent lumped models derived for the proposed device design are simulated in MEMSPRO T-SPICE software. Simulations are carried out with the design specifications following design rules of the MetalMUMPS fabrication process. Drive mass resonant frequencies simulated by this technique are 1.59 kHz and 2.05 kHz respectively, which are close to the resonant frequencies found by the analytical formulation of the gyroscope. The lumped equivalent circuit modeling technique proved to be a time efficient modeling technique for the analysis of complex MEMS devices like 3-DoF gyroscopes. The technique proves to be an alternative approach to the complex and time consuming couple field analysis Finite Element Analysis (FEA) previously used.

  12. Catchment classification and model parameter transfer with a view to regionalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ley, Rita; Hellebrand, Hugo; Casper, Markus C.

    2013-04-01

    Physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics are responsible for catchment response behaviour, whereas hydrological model parameters describe catchment properties in such a way to transform input data (here: precipitation, evaporation) to runoff, hence describing the response behaviour of a catchment. In this respect, model parameters can thus be seen as catchment descriptors. A third catchment descriptor is runoff behaviour, depicted by indices derived from event runoff coefficients and Flow Duration Curves. In an ongoing research project founded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), we investigate the interdependencies of these three catchment descriptors for catchment classification with a view to regionalisation. The study area comprises about 80 meso-scale catchments in western Germany. These catchments are classified by Self Organising Maps (SOM) based on a) runoff behaviour and b) physical and climatic properties. The two classifications show an overlap of about 80% for all catchments and indicate a direct connection between the two descriptors for a majority of the catchments. Next, all catchments are calibrated with a simple and parsimonious conceptual model, stemming from the Superflex model framework. In this study we test the interdependencies between the classification and the calibrated model parameters by parameter transfer within and between the classes established by SOM. The model simulates total discharge, given observed precipitation and pre-estimated potential evaporation. Simulations with a few catchments show encouraging results: all simulations with the calibrated model show a good fit, which is indicated by Nash Sutcliff coefficients of about 0.8. Most of the simulations of runoff time series for catchments with parameter sets belonging to their own class display good performances too, while simulated runoff with model parameter sets from other classes display significant lower performance. This indicates that there is a

  13. Parameter estimation in a stochastic model of the tubuloglomerular feedback mechanism in a rat nephron

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Yip, Kay-Pong; Holstein-Rathlou, N.-H.

    2005-01-01

    A key parameter in the understanding of renal hemodynamics is the gain of the feedback function in the tubuloglomerular feedback mechanism. A dynamic model of autoregulation of renal blood flow and glomerular filtration rate has been extended to include a stochastic differential equations model...... analyzed, and the parameters characterizing the gain and the delay have been estimated. There was good agreement between the estimated values, and the values obtained for the same parameters in independent, previously published experiments....

  14. Impedance based modeling of battery parameters and behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Özdemir, Elif

    2017-01-01

    Cataloged from PDF version of article. Thesis (M.S.): Bilkent University, Department of Chemistry, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2017. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-115). Modeling battery performance under arbitrary load has gained importance in recent years with the increasing demand on batteries in various fields from automotive industry to consumer electronic devices. Due to numerous application areas of electrochemical energy storage (EES) systems, researc...

  15. Parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena

    En rationel og effektiv vandressourceadministration forudsætter indsigt i og forståelse af de hydrologiske processer samt præcise opgørelser af de tilgængelige vandmængder i både overfladevands- og grundvandsmagasiner. Til det formål er hydrologiske modeller et uomgængeligt værktøj. I de senest 1...

  16. Binary system parameters and the hibernation model of cataclysmic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Livio, M.; Shara, M.M.; Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD)

    1987-01-01

    The hibernation model, in which nova systems spend most of the time between eruptions in a state of low mass transfer rate, is examined. The binary systems more likely to undergo hibernation are determined. The predictions of the hibernation scenario are shown to be consistent with available observational data. It is shown how the hibernation scenario provides links between classical novae, dwarf novae, and novalike variables, all of which represent different stages in the cyclic evolution of the same systems. 72 references

  17. Modeling Ne-21 NMR parameters for carbon nanosystems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kupka, T.; Nieradka, M.; Kaminský, Jakub; Stobinski, L.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 10 (2013), s. 676-681 ISSN 0749-1581 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP208/11/0105; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11033 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) M200551205 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : Ne-21 NMR * GIAO NMR * molecular modeling * carbon nanostructures Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.559, year: 2013

  18. Parameter Estimation for Dynamic Model of the Financial System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Novotná

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economy can be considered a large, open system which is influenced by fluctuations, both internal and external. Based on non-linear dynamics theory, the dynamic models of a financial system try to provide a new perspective by explaining the complicated behaviour of the system not as a result of external influences or random behaviour, but as a result of the behaviour and trends of the system’s internal structures. The present article analyses a chaotic financial system from the point of view of determining the time delay of the model variables – the interest rate, investment demand, and price index. The theory is briefly explained in the first chapters of the paper and serves as a basis for formulating the relations. This article aims to determine the appropriate length of time delay variables in a dynamic model of the financial system in order to express the real economic situation and respect the effect of the history of factors under consideration. The determination of the delay length is carried out for the time series representing Euro area. The methodology for the determination of the time delay is illustrated by a concrete example.

  19. Schelling's Segregation Model: Parameters, scaling, and aggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhinav Singh

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Schelling proposed a simple spatial model to illustrate how, even with relatively mild assumptions on each individual's nearest neighbor preferences, an integrated city would likely unravel to a segregated city, even if all individuals prefer integration. This agent based lattice model has become quite influential amongst social scientists, demographers, and economists. Aggregation relates to individuals coming together to form groups and Schelling equated global aggregation with segregation. Many authors assumed that the segregation which Schelling observed in simulations on very small cities persists for larger, realistic size cities. We describe how different measures could be used to quantify the segregation and unlock its dependence on city size, disparate neighbor comfortability threshold, and population density. We identify distinct scales of global aggregation, and show that the striking global aggregation Schelling observed is strictly a small city phenomenon. We also discover several scaling laws for the aggregation measures. Along the way we prove that as the Schelling model evolves, the total perimeter of the interface between the different agents decreases, which provides a useful analytical tool to study the evolution.

  20. Parameter Estimation of Structural Equation Modeling Using Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Kurnia Sari

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Leadership is a process of influencing, directing or giving an example of employees in order to achieve the objectives of the organization and is a key element in the effectiveness of the organization. In addition to the style of leadership, the success of an organization or company in achieving its objectives can also be influenced by the commitment of the organization. Where organizational commitment is a commitment created by each individual for the betterment of the organization. The purpose of this research is to obtain a model of leadership style and organizational commitment to job satisfaction and employee performance, and determine the factors that influence job satisfaction and employee performance using SEM with Bayesian approach. This research was conducted at Statistics FNI employees in Malang, with 15 people. The result of this study showed that the measurement model, all significant indicators measure each latent variable. Meanwhile in the structural model, it was concluded there are a significant difference between the variables of Leadership Style and Organizational Commitment toward Job Satisfaction directly as well as a significant difference between Job Satisfaction on Employee Performance. As for the influence of Leadership Style and variable Organizational Commitment on Employee Performance directly declared insignificant.

  1. Statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazoyer, B.M.; Huesman, R.H.; Budinger, T.F.; Knittel, B.L.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past years a major focus of research in physiologic studies employing tracers has been the computer implementation of mathematical methods of kinetic modeling for extracting the desired physiological parameters from tomographically derived data. A study is reported of factors that affect the statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) experiments

  2. Recommendations concerning models and parameters best suited to breeder reactor environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1980-05-01

    Recommendations are presented concerning the models and parameters best suited for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These recommendations are based on the model and parameter evaluations performed during this project to date. Seven different areas are covered in separate sections

  3. DRAINMOD-GIS: a lumped parameter watershed scale drainage and water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    G.P. Fernandez; G.M. Chescheir; R.W. Skaggs; D.M. Amatya

    2006-01-01

    A watershed scale lumped parameter hydrology and water quality model that includes an uncertainty analysis component was developed and tested on a lower coastal plain watershed in North Carolina. Uncertainty analysis was used to determine the impacts of uncertainty in field and network parameters of the model on the predicted outflows and nitrate-nitrogen loads at the...

  4. Optimization of soil hydraulic model parameters using Synthetic Aperture Radar data: an integrated multidisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattia, F.; Pauwels, V. R.; Balenzano, A.; Satalino, G.; Skriver, H.; Verhoest, N. E.

    2008-12-01

    It is widely recognized that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are a very valuable source of information for the modeling of the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. During the last couple of decades, most of the research on the use of SAR data in hydrologic applications has been focused on the retrieval of land and bio-geophysical parameters (e.g. soil moisture contents). One relatively unexplored issue consists of the optimization of soil hydraulic model parameters, such as for example hydraulic conductivity values, through remote sensing. This is due to the fact that no direct relationships between the remote sensing observations, more specifically radar backscatter values, and the parameter values can be derived. However, land surface models can provide these relationships. The objective of this study is to retrieve a number of soil physical model parameters through a combination of remote sensing and land surface modeling. Spatially distributed and multitemporal SAR-based soil moisture maps are the basis of the study. The surface soil moisture values are used in a parameter estimation procedure based on the Extended Kalman Filter equations. In fact, the land surface model is thus used to determine the relationship between the soil physical parameters and the remote sensing data. An analysis is then performed, relating the retrieved soil parameters to the soil texture data available over the study area. The results of the study show that there is a potential to retrieve soil physical model parameters through a combination of land surface modeling and remote sensing.

  5. Recommendations concerning models and parameters best suited to breeder reactor environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

    1980-05-01

    Recommendations are presented concerning the models and parameters best suited for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These recommendations are based on the model and parameter evaluations performed during this project to date. Seven different areas are covered in separate sections.

  6. A Fundamental Parameter-Based Calibration Model for an Intrinsic Germanium X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Leif Højslet; Pind, Niels

    1982-01-01

    A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each...

  7. Exploring Parameter Tuning for Analysis and Optimization of a Computational Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mollee, J.S.; Fernandes de Mello Araujo, E.; Klein, M.C.A.

    2017-01-01

    Computational models of human processes are used for many different purposes and in many different types of applications. A common challenge in using such models is to find suitable parameter values. In many cases, the ideal parameter values are those that yield the most realistic simulation

  8. Quantification of remodeling parameter sensitivity - assessed by a computer simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, J.S.; Mosekilde, Li.; Mosekilde, Erik

    1996-01-01

    We have used a computer simulation model to evaluate the effect of several bone remodeling parameters on vertebral cancellus bone. The menopause was chosen as the base case scenario, and the sensitivity of the model to the following parameters was investigated: activation frequency, formation bal....... However, the formation balance was responsible for the greater part of total mass loss....

  9. Definition of Saturn's magnetospheric model parameters for the Pioneer 11 flyby

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Belenkaya

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a description of a method for selection parameters for a global paraboloid model of Saturn's magnetosphere. The model is based on the preexisting paraboloid terrestrial and Jovian models of the magnetospheric field. Interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, i.e. the magnetotail current system, and the magnetopause currents screening all magnetospheric field sources, is taken into account. The input model parameters are determined from observations of the Pioneer 11 inbound flyby.

  10. Model Kosmologi Brane dengan Parameter Perlambatan Ekspansi yang Gayut Linear terhadap Waktu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azrul Azwar

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Telah dibangun model kosmologi brane dengan parameter perlambatan ekspansi yang gayut linear terhadap waktu. Dalam model ini telah diturunkan persaman untuk evolusi faktor skala, parameter Hubble, kerapatan materi-energi dan tekanan alam semesta.  Pada limit energi rendah seperti pada era alam semesta sekarang ini, yaitu pada saat rapat materi-energi jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan tegangan brane, model yang di bangun ini akan kembali ke model Akarsu-Dereli.

  11. Application of two-parameter and three-parameter isotherm models at uranium bio sorption by baker's yeast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshtkar, A.; Montazer Rahmati, M. M.; Khodapanah, N.

    2010-01-01

    In this work, the ability of free and immobilized deactivated baker's yeast saccharomyces cerevisiae to remove uranium ions was investigated using a batch bio sorption procedure with respect to the initial p H (3.0-6.0), contact time (24 h), initial ion concentration (50-400 mg/g) and presence of secondary ions (Cr(V I)). The removal of uranium was approximately 90% and 50% at low concentrations, whereas it was about 80% and 15% at high concentrations at an optimum p H of 5 and 5.5, using 1 g/1 of adsorbent in 24 h of equilibration time for immobilized and free baker's yeast, respectively. Experimental results at 30 d eg C indicated that the uptake capacity of uranium ions by immobilized baker's yeast biomass on calcium alginate was reduced by the presence of secondary ions. The experimental data obtained at the optimum have been analyzed using two two-parameter models, Langmuir and Freundlich, and one three-parameter model, Redlich-Peterson. Taking into three statistical error functions, the data were best fitted to the Redlich-Peterson model. Using the Langmuir equation, the saturated monolayer sorption capacities of uranium ions onto immobilized and free baker's yeast were 592.8 and 73 mg/g, respectively at 30 d eg C .

  12. The Limitations of Model-Based Experimental Design and Parameter Estimation in Sloppy Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew White

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the relationship among experimental design, parameter estimation, and systematic error in sloppy models. We show that the approximate nature of mathematical models poses challenges for experimental design in sloppy models. In many models of complex biological processes it is unknown what are the relevant physical mechanisms that must be included to explain system behaviors. As a consequence, models are often overly complex, with many practically unidentifiable parameters. Furthermore, which mechanisms are relevant/irrelevant vary among experiments. By selecting complementary experiments, experimental design may inadvertently make details that were ommitted from the model become relevant. When this occurs, the model will have a large systematic error and fail to give a good fit to the data. We use a simple hyper-model of model error to quantify a model's discrepancy and apply it to two models of complex biological processes (EGFR signaling and DNA repair with optimally selected experiments. We find that although parameters may be accurately estimated, the discrepancy in the model renders it less predictive than it was in the sloppy regime where systematic error is small. We introduce the concept of a sloppy system-a sequence of models of increasing complexity that become sloppy in the limit of microscopic accuracy. We explore the limits of accurate parameter estimation in sloppy systems and argue that identifying underlying mechanisms controlling system behavior is better approached by considering a hierarchy of models of varying detail rather than focusing on parameter estimation in a single model.

  13. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantelic, G.

    2006-01-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 ± 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 ± 0.005). (authors)

  14. Fluctuation of Parameters in Tumor Cell Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Bao-Quan; Wang, Xian-Ju; Liu, Guo-Tao; Liu, Liang-Gang

    2003-07-01

    We study the steady state properties of a logistic growth model in the presence of Gaussian white noise. Based on the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation the steady state solution of the probability distribution function and its extrema have been investigated. It is found that the fluctuation of the tumor birth rate reduces the population of the cells while the fluctuation of predation rate can prevent the population of tumor cells from going into extinction. Noise in the system can induce the phase transition. The project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 10275099 and Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China under Grant Nos. 021707 and 001182

  15. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pantelic, G. [Institute of Occupatioanl Health and Radiological Protection ' Dr Dragomir Karajovic' , Belgrade (Serbia)

    2006-07-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 {+-} 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 {+-} 0.005). (authors)

  16. Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, Henry [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States); Gill, Philip [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2015-03-31

    In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.

  17. Exploring the parameter space of warm-inflation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun; Kronberg, Nico

    2015-12-01

    Warm inflation includes inflaton interactions with other fields throughout the inflationary epoch instead of confining such interactions to a distinct reheating era. Previous investigations have shown that, when certain constraints on the dynamics of these interactions and the resultant radiation bath are satisfied, a low-momentum-dominated dissipation coefficient propto T3/mχ2 can sustain an era of inflation compatible with CMB observations. In this work, we extend these analyses by including the pole-dominated dissipation term propto √mχ T exp(-mχ/T). We find that, with this enhanced dissipation, certain models, notably the quadratic hilltop potential, perform significantly better. Specifically, we can achieve 50 e-folds of inflation and a spectral index compatible with Planck data while requiring fewer mediator field (Script O(104) for the quadratic hilltop potential) and smaller coupling constants, opening up interesting model-building possibilities. We also highlight the significance of the specific parametric dependence of the dissipative coefficient which could prove useful in even greater reduction in field content.

  18. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  19. Accounting for environmental variability, modeling errors, and parameter estimation uncertainties in structural identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behmanesh, Iman; Moaveni, Babak

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents a Hierarchical Bayesian model updating framework to account for the effects of ambient temperature and excitation amplitude. The proposed approach is applied for model calibration, response prediction and damage identification of a footbridge under changing environmental/ambient conditions. The concrete Young's modulus of the footbridge deck is the considered updating structural parameter with its mean and variance modeled as functions of temperature and excitation amplitude. The identified modal parameters over 27 months of continuous monitoring of the footbridge are used to calibrate the updating parameters. One of the objectives of this study is to show that by increasing the levels of information in the updating process, the posterior variation of the updating structural parameter (concrete Young's modulus) is reduced. To this end, the calibration is performed at three information levels using (1) the identified modal parameters, (2) modal parameters and ambient temperatures, and (3) modal parameters, ambient temperatures, and excitation amplitudes. The calibrated model is then validated by comparing the model-predicted natural frequencies and those identified from measured data after deliberate change to the structural mass. It is shown that accounting for modeling error uncertainties is crucial for reliable response prediction, and accounting only the estimated variability of the updating structural parameter is not sufficient for accurate response predictions. Finally, the calibrated model is used for damage identification of the footbridge.

  20. Bayesian analysis of canopy transpiration models: A test of posterior parameter means against measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. Scott; Ewers, Brent E.; Loranty, Michael M.; Kruger, Eric L.; Samanta, Sudeep

    2012-04-01

    SummaryBig-leaf models of transpiration are based on the hypothesis that structural heterogeneity within forest canopies can be ignored at stand or larger scales. However, the adoption of big-leaf models is de facto rather than de jure, as forests are never structurally or functionally homogeneous. We tested big-leaf models both with and without modification to include canopy gaps, in a heterogeneous quaking aspen stand having a range of canopy densities. Leaf area index (L) and canopy closure were obtained from biometric data, stomatal conductance parameters were obtained from sap flux measurements, while leaf gas exchange data provided photosynthetic parameters. We then rigorously tested model-data consistency by incrementally starving the models of these measured parameters and using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation to retrieve the withheld parameters. Model acceptability was quantified with Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), which penalized model accuracy by the number of retrieved parameters. Big-leaf models overestimated canopy transpiration with increasing error as canopy density declined, but models that included gaps had minimal error regardless of canopy density. When models used measured L the other parameters were retrieved with minimal bias. This showed that simple canopy models could predict transpiration in data scarce regions where only L was measured. Models that had L withheld had the lowest DIC values suggesting that they were the most acceptable models. However, these models failed to retrieve unbiased parameter estimates indicating a mismatch between model structure and data. By quantifying model structure and data requirements this new approach to evaluating model-data fusion has advanced the understanding of canopy transpiration.

  1. Development of a Mathematical Lumped Parameters Model for the Heat Transfer Performance of a Solar Collector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Iordanou

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This work describes the developed of a lumped parameter model and demonstrates its practical application. The lumped parameter mathematical model is a useful instrument to be used for rapid determination of design dimensions and operational performance of solar collectors at the designing stage. Such model which incorporates data from relevant Computational Fluid Dynamics design and experimental investigations can provide an acceptable accuracy in predictions and can be used as an effective design tool. A computer algorithm validates the lumped parameter model via a window environment program.

  2. A parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology applied to a street canyon air pollution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottosen, T. B.; Ketzel, Matthias; Skov, H.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street...... of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to successfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach...

  3. Nonlinear analysis of AS4/PEEK thermoplastic composite laminate using a one parameter plasticity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C. T.; Yoon, K. J.

    1990-01-01

    A one-parameter plasticity model was shown to adequately describe the orthotropic plastic deformation of AS4/PEEK (APC-2) unidirectional thermoplastic composite. This model was verified further for unidirectional and laminated composite panels with and without a hole. The nonlinear stress-strain relations were measured and compared with those predicted by the finite element analysis using the one-parameter elastic-plastic constitutive model. The results show that the one-parameter orthotropic plasticity model is suitable for the analysis of elastic-plastic deformation of AS4/PEEK composite laminates.

  4. Repetitive Identification of Structural Systems Using a Nonlinear Model Parameter Refinement Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Wen Lin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.

  5. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S. [Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); Rodriguez, A.G. [University of Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica)

    1999-07-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs.

  6. Parameter uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the environmental impacts of economic policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abler, D.G.; Shortle, J.S.; Rodriguez, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. 33 refs

  7. Online Estimation of Model Parameters of Lithium-Ion Battery Using the Cubature Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yong; Yan, Rusheng; Tian, Jindong; Zhou, Shijie; Hu, Chao

    2017-11-01

    Online estimation of state variables, including state-of-charge (SOC), state-of-energy (SOE) and state-of-health (SOH) is greatly crucial for the operation safety of lithium-ion battery. In order to improve estimation accuracy of these state variables, a precise battery model needs to be established. As the lithium-ion battery is a nonlinear time-varying system, the model parameters significantly vary with many factors, such as ambient temperature, discharge rate and depth of discharge, etc. This paper presents an online estimation method of model parameters for lithium-ion battery based on the cubature Kalman filter. The commonly used first-order resistor-capacitor equivalent circuit model is selected as the battery model, based on which the model parameters are estimated online. Experimental results show that the presented method can accurately track the parameters variation at different scenarios.

  8. Bayesian estimation of regularization parameters for deformable surface models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunningham, G.S.; Lehovich, A.; Hanson, K.M.

    1999-02-20

    In this article the authors build on their past attempts to reconstruct a 3D, time-varying bolus of radiotracer from first-pass data obtained by the dynamic SPECT imager, FASTSPECT, built by the University of Arizona. The object imaged is a CardioWest total artificial heart. The bolus is entirely contained in one ventricle and its associated inlet and outlet tubes. The model for the radiotracer distribution at a given time is a closed surface parameterized by 482 vertices that are connected to make 960 triangles, with nonuniform intensity variations of radiotracer allowed inside the surface on a voxel-to-voxel basis. The total curvature of the surface is minimized through the use of a weighted prior in the Bayesian framework, as is the weighted norm of the gradient of the voxellated grid. MAP estimates for the vertices, interior intensity voxels and background count level are produced. The strength of the priors, or hyperparameters, are determined by maximizing the probability of the data given the hyperparameters, called the evidence. The evidence is calculated by first assuming that the posterior is approximately normal in the values of the vertices and voxels, and then by evaluating the integral of the multi-dimensional normal distribution. This integral (which requires evaluating the determinant of a covariance matrix) is computed by applying a recent algorithm from Bai et. al. that calculates the needed determinant efficiently. They demonstrate that the radiotracer is highly inhomogeneous in early time frames, as suspected in earlier reconstruction attempts that assumed a uniform intensity of radiotracer within the closed surface, and that the optimal choice of hyperparameters is substantially different for different time frames.

  9. Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by

  10. A New Five-Parameter Fréchet Model for Extreme Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ahsan ul Haq

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A new five parameter Fréchet model for Extreme Values was proposed and studied. Various mathematical properties including moments, quantiles, and moment generating function were derived. Incomplete moments and probability weighted moments were also obtained. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the model parameters. The flexibility of the derived model was accessed using two real data set applications.

  11. Process verification of a hydrological model using a temporal parameter sensitivity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pfannerstill; B. Guse; D. Reusser; N. Fohrer

    2015-01-01

    To ensure reliable results of hydrological models, it is essential that the models reproduce the hydrological process dynamics adequately. Information about simulated process dynamics is provided by looking at the temporal sensitivities of the corresponding model parameters. For this, the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity are analysed to identify the simulated hydrological processes. Based on these analyses it can be verified if the simulated hydrological processes ...

  12. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  13. Using a 4D-Variational Method to Optimize Model Parameters in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, C.; Zhang, R. H.

    2017-12-01

    Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which is attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a four dimentional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (Te), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation, written as Te=αTe×FTe (SL). The introduced parameter, αTe, represents the strength of the thermocline effect on sea surface temperature (SST; referred as the thermocline effect). A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having initial condition optimized only and having initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized both are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameter and initial condition together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

  14. Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Wu, Xinrong; Sun, Jichang

    2018-04-01

    Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer ( T e), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level (SL) variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST (referred to simply as "the thermocline effect") is represented by an introduced parameter, α Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

  15. PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND MODEL SELECTION FOR INDOOR ENVIRONMENTS BASED ON SPARSE OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Dehbi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

  16. Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

  17. Comprehensive study on parameter sensitivity for flow and nutrient modeling in the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Chuan; Li, Zhaofu; Wu, Min; Jiang, Kaixia; Chen, Xiaomin; Li, Hengpeng

    2017-09-01

    Numerous parameters are used to construct the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) model, which results in significant difficulty in calibrating the model. Parameter sensitivity analysis is an efficient method to identify important model parameters. Through this method, a model's calibration process can be simplified on the basis of understanding the model's structure. This study investigated the sensitivity of the flow and nutrient parameters of HSPF using the DSA (differential sensitivity analysis) method in the Xitiaoxi watershed, China. The results showed that flow was mostly affected by parameters related to groundwater and evapotranspiration, including DEEPFR (fraction of groundwater inflow to deep recharge), LZETP (lower-zone evapotranspiration parameter), and AGWRC (base groundwater recession), and most of the sensitive parameters had negative and nonlinear effects on flow. Additionally, nutrient components were commonly affected by parameters from land processes, including MON-SQOLIM (monthly values limiting storage of water quality in overland flow), MON-ACCUM (monthly values of accumulation), MON-IFLW-CONC (monthly concentration of water quality in interflow), and MON-GRND-CONC (monthly concentration of water quality in active groundwater). Besides, parameters from river systems, KATM20 (unit oxidation rate of total ammonia at 20 °C) had a negative and almost linear effect on ammonia concentration and MALGR (maximal unit algal growth rate for phytoplankton) had a negative and nonlinear effect on ammonia and orthophosphate concentrations. After calibrating these sensitive parameters, our model performed well for simulating flow and nutrient outputs, with R 2 and E NS (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) both greater than 0.75 for flow and greater than 0.5 for nutrient components. This study is expected to serve as a valuable complement to the documentation of the HSPF model to help users identify key parameters and provide a reference for performing

  18. On the validity of evolutionary models with site-specific parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Scheffler

    Full Text Available Evolutionary models that make use of site-specific parameters have recently been criticized on the grounds that parameter estimates obtained under such models can be unreliable and lack theoretical guarantees of convergence. We present a simulation study providing empirical evidence that a simple version of the models in question does exhibit sensible convergence behavior and that additional taxa, despite not being independent of each other, lead to improved parameter estimates. Although it would be desirable to have theoretical guarantees of this, we argue that such guarantees would not be sufficient to justify the use of these models in practice. Instead, we emphasize the importance of taking the variance of parameter estimates into account rather than blindly trusting point estimates - this is standardly done by using the models to construct statistical hypothesis tests, which are then validated empirically via simulation studies.

  19. Application of Artificial Bee Colony in Model Parameter Identification of Solar Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongjie Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The identification of values of solar cell parameters is of great interest for evaluating solar cell performances. The algorithm of an artificial bee colony was used to extract model parameters of solar cells from current-voltage characteristics. Firstly, the best-so-for mechanism was introduced to the original artificial bee colony. Then, a method was proposed to identify parameters for a single diode model and double diode model using this improved artificial bee colony. Experimental results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and its superior performance compared to other competing methods.

  20. On unique parameters and unified formal form of hot-wire anemometric sensor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LigePza, P.

    2005-01-01

    This note reviews the extensively adopted equations used as models of hot-wire anemometric sensors. An unified formal form of the mathematical model of a hot-wire anemometric sensor with otherwise defined parameters is proposed. Those parameters, static and dynamic, have simple physical interpretation and can be easily determined. They show directly the range of sensor application. They determine the metrological properties of the given sensor in the actual medium. Hence, the parameters' values might be ascribed to each sensor in the given medium and be quoted in manufacturers' catalogues, supplementing the sensor specifications. Because of their simple physical interpretation, those parameters allow the direct comparison of the fundamental metrological properties of various sensors and selection of the optimal sensor for the given research measurement application. The parameters are also useful in modeling complex hot-wire systems

  1. Parameter dependence and outcome dependence in dynamical models for state vector reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, G.C.; Grassi, R.; Butterfield, J.; Fleming, G.N.

    1993-01-01

    The authors apply the distinction between parameter independence and outcome independence to the linear and nonlinear models of a recent nonrelativistic theory of continuous state vector reduction. It is shown that in the nonlinear model there is a set of realizations of the stochastic process that drives the state vector reduction for which parameter independence is violated for parallel spin components in the EPR-Bohm setup. Such a set has an appreciable probability of occurrence (∼ 1/2). On the other hand, the linear model exhibits only extremely small parameter dependence effects. Some specific features of the models are investigated and it is recalled that, as has been pointed out recently, to be able to speak of definite outcomes (or equivalently of possessed objective elements of reality) at finite times, the criteria for their attribution to physical systems must be slightly changed. The concluding section is devoted to a detailed discussion of the difficulties met when attempting to take, as a starting point for the formulation of a relativistic theory, a nonrelativistic scheme which exhibits parameter dependence. Here the authors derive a theorem which identifies the precise sense in which the occurrence of parameter dependence forbids a genuinely relativistic generalization. Finally, the authors show how the appreciable parameter dependence of the nonlinear model gives rise to problems with relativity, while the extremely weak parameter dependence of the linear model does not give rise to any difficulty, provided the appropriate criteria for the attribution of definite outcomes are taken into account. 19 refs

  2. Bayesian parameter estimation in dynamic population model via particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Gao

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In nature, population dynamics are subject to multiple sources of stochasticity. State-space models (SSMs provide an ideal framework for incorporating both environmental noises and measurement errors into dynamic population models. In this paper, we present a recently developed method, Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC, for parameter estimation in nonlinear SSMs. We use one effective algorithm of Particle MCMC, Particle Gibbs sampling algorithm, to estimate the parameters of a state-space model of population dynamics. The posterior distributions of parameters are derived given the conjugate prior distribution. Numerical simulations showed that the model parameters can be accurately estimated, no matter the deterministic model is stable, periodic or chaotic. Moreover, we fit the model to 16 representative time series from Global Population Dynamics Database (GPDD. It is verified that the results of parameter and state estimation using Particle Gibbs sampling algorithm are satisfactory for a majority of time series. For other time series, the quality of parameter estimation can also be improved, if prior knowledge is constrained. In conclusion, Particle Gibbs sampling algorithm provides a new Bayesian parameter inference method for studying population dynamics.

  3. On Approaches to Analyze the Sensitivity of Simulated Hydrologic Fluxes to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Bao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

  4. Combustion Model and Control Parameter Optimization Methods for Single Cylinder Diesel Engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Wahono

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research presents a method to construct a combustion model and a method to optimize some control parameters of diesel engine in order to develop a model-based control system. The construction purpose of the model is to appropriately manage some control parameters to obtain the values of fuel consumption and emission as the engine output objectives. Stepwise method considering multicollinearity was applied to construct combustion model with the polynomial model. Using the experimental data of a single cylinder diesel engine, the model of power, BSFC, NOx, and soot on multiple injection diesel engines was built. The proposed method succesfully developed the model that describes control parameters in relation to the engine outputs. Although many control devices can be mounted to diesel engine, optimization technique is required to utilize this method in finding optimal engine operating conditions efficiently beside the existing development of individual emission control methods. Particle swarm optimization (PSO was used to calculate control parameters to optimize fuel consumption and emission based on the model. The proposed method is able to calculate control parameters efficiently to optimize evaluation item based on the model. Finally, the model which added PSO then was compiled in a microcontroller.

  5. Low-dimensional modeling of a driven cavity flow with two free parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Bo Hoffmann; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Brøns, Morten

    2003-01-01

    -dimensional models. SPOD is capable of transforming data organized in different sets separately while still producing orthogonal modes. A low-dimensional model is constructed and used for analyzing bifurcations occurring in the flow in the lid-driven cavity with a rotating rod. The model allows one of the free...... parameters to appear in the inhomogeneous boundary conditions without the addition of any constraints. This is necessary because both the driving lid and the rotating rod are controlled simultaneously. Apparently, the results reported for this model are the first to be obtained for a low-dimensional model...... based on projections on POD modes for more than one free parameter....

  6. Lumped-Parameter Models for Wind-Turbine Footings on Layered Ground

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars; Liingaard, Morten

    2007-01-01

    The design of modern wind turbines is typically based on lifetime analyses using aeroelastic codes. In this regard, the impedance of the foundations must be described accurately without increasing the overall size of the computational model significantly. This may be obtained by the fitting...... of a lumped-parameter model to the results of a rigorous model or experimental results. In this paper, guidelines are given for the formulation of such lumped-parameter models and examples are given in which the models are utilised for the analysis of a wind turbine supported by a surface footing on a layered...

  7. Little rip cosmological models with quadratic equation of state with time dependent parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelote, R. D.; Khadekar, G. S.

    2018-02-01

    We have studied flat FRW cosmological model of the universe filled with an ideal fluid with quadratic equation of state (EOS) with time dependent parameters ω(t) and Λ(t). We found the equation of the state parameter ω(t) is less than -1 and also found Little Rip (LR) and Pseudo Rip (PR) behavior for dark energy.

  8. Seasonal variation of photosynthetic model parameters and leaf area index from global Fluxnet eddy covariance data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenendijk, M.; Dolman, A.J.; Ammann, C.; Arneth, A.; Cescatti, A.; Molen, van der M.K.; Moors, E.J.

    2011-01-01

    Global vegetation models require the photosynthetic parameters, maximum carboxylation capacity (Vcm), and quantum yield (a) to parameterize their plant functional types (PFTs). The purpose of this work is to determine how much the scaling of the parameters from leaf to ecosystem level through a

  9. A critical study of quality parameters in health care establishment: developing an integrated quality model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Azam, M.; Rahman, Z.; Talib, F.; Singh, K.J.

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to identify and critically analyze healthcare establishment (HCE) quality parameters described in the literature. It aims to propose an integrated quality model that includes technical quality and associated supportive quality parameters to achieve optimum

  10. Models for Correlating the Composition of the Gut Microbiota with Inflammatory Disease Parameters Using Animal Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krych, Lukasz

    The human gastrointestinal tract (GIT) is inhabited by a vast number of microorganisms collectively called gut microbiota (GM). Among many functions assigned to the GM, its ability to stimulate and develop the host’s immune system has become a subject of intensive studies of many research groups...... experimental model. An additional task of this thesis was to develop a fast screening method and to investigate the distribution of two bacterial species namely: Akkermansia muciniphila and Candidatus Savagella in detail. These two members of the gut microbial community were previously reported, including our...... to establish an optimal window of time capturing the crosstalk between the GM and inflammatory parameters. We demonstrated that both C-section and cross-fostering with a genetically distinct mouse strain influence the GM composition and immune markers in mice, and that this period during early life...

  11. Bayesian parameter estimation and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Tolwinski-Ward

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We present a Bayesian model for estimating the parameters of the VS-Lite forward model of tree-ring width for a particular chronology and its local climatology. The scheme also provides information about the uncertainty of the parameter estimates, as well as the model error in representing the observed proxy time series. By inferring VS-Lite's parameters independently for synthetically generated ring-width series at several hundred sites across the United States, we show that the algorithm is skillful. We also infer optimal parameter values for modeling observed ring-width data at the same network of sites. The estimated parameter values covary in physical space, and their locations in multidimensional parameter space provide insight into the dominant climatic controls on modeled tree-ring growth at each site as well as the stability of those controls. The estimation procedure is useful for forward and inverse modeling studies using VS-Lite to quantify the full range of model uncertainty stemming from its parameterization.

  12. Fuzzy Stochastic Petri Nets for Modeling Biological Systems with Uncertain Kinetic Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fei; Heiner, Monika; Yang, Ming

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) have been widely used to model randomness which is an inherent feature of biological systems. However, for many biological systems, some kinetic parameters may be uncertain due to incomplete, vague or missing kinetic data (often called fuzzy uncertainty), or naturally vary, e.g., between different individuals, experimental conditions, etc. (often called variability), which has prevented a wider application of SPNs that require accurate parameters. Considering the strength of fuzzy sets to deal with uncertain information, we apply a specific type of stochastic Petri nets, fuzzy stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs), to model and analyze biological systems with uncertain kinetic parameters. FSPNs combine SPNs and fuzzy sets, thereby taking into account both randomness and fuzziness of biological systems. For a biological system, SPNs model the randomness, while fuzzy sets model kinetic parameters with fuzzy uncertainty or variability by associating each parameter with a fuzzy number instead of a crisp real value. We introduce a simulation-based analysis method for FSPNs to explore the uncertainties of outputs resulting from the uncertainties associated with input parameters, which works equally well for bounded and unbounded models. We illustrate our approach using a yeast polarization model having an infinite state space, which shows the appropriateness of FSPNs in combination with simulation-based analysis for modeling and analyzing biological systems with uncertain information.

  13. Parameter determination for singlet oxygen modeling of BPD-mediated PDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Dayton D.; Chen, Daniel; Kim, Michele M.; Liang, Xing; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2013-03-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) offers a cancer treatment modality capable of providing minimally invasive localized tumor necrosis. To accurately predict PDT treatment outcome based on pre-treatment patient specific parameters, an explicit dosimetry model is used to calculate apparent reacted 1O2 concentration ([1O2]rx) at varied radial distances from the activating light source inserted into tumor tissue and apparent singlet oxygen threshold concentration for necrosis ([1O2]rx, sd) for type-II PDT photosensitizers. Inputs into the model include a number of photosensitizer independent parameters as well as photosensitizer specific photochemical parameters ξ σ, and β. To determine the specific photochemical parameters of benzoporphyrin derivative monoacid A (BPD), mice were treated with BPDPDT with varied light source strengths and treatment times. All photosensitizer independent inputs were assessed pre-treatment and average necrotic radius in treated tissue was determined post-treatment. Using the explicit dosimetry model, BPD specific ξ σ, and β photochemical parameters were determined which estimated necrotic radii similar to those observed in initial BPD-PDT treated mice using an optimization algorithm that minimizes the difference between the model and that of the measurements. Photochemical parameters for BPD are compared with those of other known photosensitizers, such as Photofrin. The determination of these BPD specific photochemical parameters provides necessary data for predictive treatment outcome in clinical BPD-PDT using the explicit dosimetry model.

  14. HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

  15. Objective Tuning of Model Parameters in CAM5 Across Different Spatial Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulaevskaya, V.; Lucas, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    Parameterizations of physical processes in climate models are highly dependent on the spatial and temporal resolution and must be tuned for each resolution under consideration. At high spatial resolutions, objective methods for parameter tuning are computationally prohibitive. Our work has focused on calibrating parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) for three spatial resolutions: 1, 2, and 4 degrees. Using perturbed-parameter ensembles and uncertainty quantification methodology, we have identified input parameters that minimize discrepancies of energy fluxes simulated by CAM5 across the three resolutions and with respect to satellite observations. We are also beginning to exploit the parameter-resolution relationships to objectively tune parameters in a high-resolution version of CAM5 by leveraging cheaper, low-resolution simulations and statistical models. We will present our approach to multi-resolution climate model parameter tuning, as well as the key findings. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was supported from the DOE Office of Science through the Scientific Discovery Through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) project on Multiscale Methods for Accurate, Efficient, and Scale-Aware Models of the Earth System.

  16. Physical parameter estimation in spatial heat transport models with an application to food storage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Mourik, S.; Vries, Dirk; Ploegaert, Johan P. M.; Zwart, Heiko J.; Keesman, Karel J.

    Parameter estimation plays an important role in physical modelling, but can be problematic due to the complexity of spatiotemporal models that are used for analysis, control and design in industry. In this paper we aim to circumvent these problems by using a methodology that approximates a model, or

  17. Physical parameter estimation in spatial heat transport models with an application to food storage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mourik, van S.; Vries, D.; Ploegaert, J.P.M.; Zwart, H.; Keesman, K.J.

    2012-01-01

    Parameter estimation plays an important role in physical modelling, but can be problematic due to the complexity of spatiotemporal models that are used for analysis, control and design in industry. In this paper we aim to circumvent these problems by using a methodology that approximates a model, or

  18. The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1997-01-01

    The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The

  19. Parameter estimation and analysis of an automotive heavy-duty SCR catalyst model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

    2017-01-01

    A single channel model for a heavy-duty SCR catalyst was derived based on first principles. The model considered heat and mass transfer between the channel gas phase and the wash coat phase. The parameters of the kinetic model were estimated using bench-scale monolith isothermal data. Validation ...

  20. Estimation of Physical Properties and Chemical Reactivity Parameters of Organic Compounds for Environmental Modeling by SPARC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathematical models for predicting the transport and fate of pollutants in the environment require reactivity parameter values that is value of the physical and chemical constants that govern reactivity. Although empirical structure activity relationships have been developed th...

  1. Influence of delayed neutron parameter calculation accuracy on results of modeled WWER scram experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artemov, V.G.; Gusev, V.I.; Zinatullin, R.E.; Karpov, A.S.

    2007-01-01

    Using modeled WWER cram rod drop experiments, performed at the Rostov NPP, as an example, the influence of delayed neutron parameters on the modeling results was investigated. The delayed neutron parameter values were taken from both domestic and foreign nuclear databases. Numerical modeling was carried out on the basis of SAPFIR 9 5andWWERrogram package. Parameters of delayed neutrons were acquired from ENDF/B-VI and BNAB-78 validated data files. It was demonstrated that using delay fraction data from different databases in reactivity meters led to significantly different reactivity results. Based on the results of numerically modeled experiments, delayed neutron parameters providing the best agreement between calculated and measured data were selected and recommended for use in reactor calculations (Authors)

  2. Sensitivity of predicted bioaerosol exposure from open windrow composting facilities to ADMS dispersion model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, P; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Whelan, M; Longhurst, P J; Walsh, K; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

    2016-12-15

    Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are not well understood, and require improved exposure classification. Dispersion modelling has great potential to improve exposure classification, but has not yet been extensively used or validated in this context. We present a sensitivity analysis of the ADMS dispersion model specific to input parameter ranges relevant to bioaerosol emissions from open windrow composting. This analysis provides an aid for model calibration by prioritising parameter adjustment and targeting independent parameter estimation. Results showed that predicted exposure was most sensitive to the wet and dry deposition modules and the majority of parameters relating to emission source characteristics, including pollutant emission velocity, source geometry and source height. This research improves understanding of the accuracy of model input data required to provide more reliable exposure predictions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. BUILDING MODEL ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS WITH THE JOINT UNIVERSAL PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY (JUPITER) API

    Science.gov (United States)

    The open-source, public domain JUPITER (Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability) API (Application Programming Interface) provides conventions and Fortran-90 modules to develop applications (computer programs) for analyzing process models. The input ...

  4. Characterizing biogenous sediments using multibeam echosounder backscatter data - Estimating power law parameter utilizing various models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chakraborty, B.; Kodagali, V.N.

    In this paper, Helmholtz-Kirchhoff (H-K) roughness model is employed to characterize seafloor sediment and roughness parameters from the eastern sector of the Southern Oceans The multibeam- Hydroswcep system's angular-backscatter data, which...

  5. Condensation of vortices and disorder parameter in 3d Heisenberg model

    OpenAIRE

    Di Giacomo, A.; Martelli, D.; Paffuti, G.

    1998-01-01

    The 3d Heisenberg model is studied from a dual point of view. It is shown that the disordered phase corresponds to condensation of vortices in the vacuum, and the critical indices are computed from the corresponding disorder parameter.

  6. Determination of modeling parameters for power IGBTs under pulsed power conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Gregory E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Gordon, Jim A [U. OF MISSOURI; Kovaleski, Scott D [U. OF MISSOURI

    2010-01-01

    While the power insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGRT) is used in many applications, it is not well characterized under pulsed power conditions. This makes the IGBT difficult to model for solid state pulsed power applications. The Oziemkiewicz implementation of the Hefner model is utilized to simulate IGBTs in some circuit simulation software packages. However, the seventeen parameters necessary for the Oziemkiewicz implementation must be known for the conditions under which the device will be operating. Using both experimental and simulated data with a least squares curve fitting technique, the parameters necessary to model a given IGBT can be determined. This paper presents two sets of these seventeen parameters that correspond to two different models of power IGBTs. Specifically, these parameters correspond to voltages up to 3.5 kV, currents up to 750 A, and pulse widths up to 10 {micro}s. Additionally, comparisons of the experimental and simulated data will be presented.

  7. Evaluating the influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification

    OpenAIRE

    N. Sczygiol; R. Dyja

    2007-01-01

    Presented paper contains evaluation of influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification. The investigated model is based on the heat conduction equation with a heat source and solved using the finite element method (FEM). The model is built with the use of enthalpy formulation for solidification and using an intermediate solid fraction growth model. The model sensitivity is studied with the use of Morris method, which is one of global sensitivity methods....

  8. Complementarity of flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenggang Du

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To improve models for accurate projections, data assimilation, an emerging statistical approach to combine models with data, have recently been developed to probe initial conditions, parameters, data content, response functions and model uncertainties. Quantifying how many information contents are contained in different data streams is essential to predict future states of ecosystems and the climate. This study uses a data assimilation approach to examine the information contents contained in flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon (C model, which includes canopy photosynthesis and vegetation–soil C transfer submodels. Three assimilation experiments were constructed with either net ecosystem exchange (NEE data only or biometric data only [including foliage and woody biomass, litterfall, soil organic C (SOC and soil respiration], or both NEE and biometric data to constrain model parameters by a probabilistic inversion application. The results showed that NEE data mainly constrained parameters associated with gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE but were almost invalid for C transfer coefficients, while biometric data were more effective in constraining C transfer coefficients than other parameters. NEE and biometric data constrained about 26% (6 and 30% (7 of a total of 23 parameters, respectively, but their combined application constrained about 61% (14 of all parameters. The complementarity of NEE and biometric data was obvious in constraining most of parameters. The poor constraint by only NEE or biometric data was probably attributable to either the lack of long-term C dynamic data or errors from measurements. Overall, our results suggest that flux- and biometric-based data, containing different processes in ecosystem C dynamics, have different capacities to constrain parameters related to photosynthesis and C transfer coefficients, respectively. Multiple data sources could also

  9. Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

  10. Mathematical modelling of nonstationary processes in a regenerator with dissociating coolant at supercritical parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashchilova, Eh.M.; Sharovarov, G.A.

    1985-01-01

    The mathematical model of nonstationary processes in heat exchangers with dissociating coolant at supercritical parameters is given. Its dimensionless criteria are deveped. The effect of NPP regenerator parameters on criteria variation is determined. The proceeding nonstationary processes are estimated qualitatively using the dimensionless parameters. Dynamics of the processes in heat exchangers is described by the energy, mass and moment-of-momentum equations for heating and heated medium taking into account heat accumulation in the heat-transfer wall and distribution of parameters along the length of a heat exchanger

  11. Determining Rheological Parameters of Generalized Yield-Power-Law Fluid Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stryczek Stanislaw

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The principles of determining rheological parameters of drilling muds described by a generalized yield-power-law are presented in the paper. Functions between tangent stresses and shear rate are given. The conditions of laboratory measurements of rheological parameters of generalized yield-power-law fluids are described and necessary mathematical relations for rheological model parameters given. With the block diagrams, the methodics of numerical solution of these relations has been presented. Rheological parameters of an exemplary drilling mud have been calculated with the use of this numerical program.

  12. Mathematical modelling of simultaneous solvent evaporation and chemical curing in thermoset coatings: A parameter study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiil, Søren

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical model, describing the curing behaviour of a two-component, solvent-based, thermoset coating, is used to conduct a parameter study. The model includes curing reactions, solvent intra-film diffusion and evaporation, film gelation, vitrification, and crosslinking. A case study...... concentration of solvent. Simulations of solvent evaporation are compared to experimental data from a previous investigation. As part of the parameter study, mechanisms of this complex coating system are discussed....

  13. Estimating Parameters for the PVsyst Version 6 Photovoltaic Module Performance Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    We present an algorithm to determine parameters for the photovoltaic module perf ormance model encoded in the software package PVsyst(TM) version 6. Our method operates on current - voltage (I - V) measured over a range of irradiance and temperature conditions. We describe the method and illustrate its steps using data for a 36 cell crystalli ne silicon module. We qualitatively compare our method with one other technique for estimating parameters for the PVsyst(TM) version 6 model .

  14. Extended Kalman Filtering and Pathloss modeling for Shadow Power Parameter Estimation in Mobile Wireless Communications

    OpenAIRE

    P. Pappas, George; A. Zohdy, Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    In this paper accurate estimation of parameters, higher order state space prediction methods and Extended Kalman filter (EKF) for modeling shadow power in wireless mobile communications are developed. Path-loss parameter estimation models are compared and evaluated. Shadow power estimation methods in wireless cellular communications are very important for use in power control of mobile device and base station. The methods are validated and compared to existing methods, Kalman Filter (KF) with...

  15. Parameters Calculation of ZnO Surge Arrester Models by Genetic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bayadi

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes to provide a new technique based on the genetic algorithm to obtain the best possible series of values of the parameters of the ZnO surge arresters models. The validity of the predicted parameters is then checked by comparing the results predicted with the experimental results available in the literature. Using the ATP-EMTP package an application of the arrester model on network system studies is presented and discussed.

  16. Radon decay product in-door behaviour - parameter, measurement method, and model review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scofield, P.

    1988-01-01

    This report reviews parameters used to characterize indoor radon daughter behavior and concentrations. Certain parameters that affect indoor radon daughter concentrations are described and the values obtained experimentally or theoretically are summarized. Radon daughter measurement methods are reviewed, such as, PAEC, unattached daughters, particle size distributions, and plateout measurement methods. In addition, certain radon pressure driven/diffusion models and indoor radon daughter models are briefly described. (orig.)

  17. The Stochastic Quasi-chemical Model for Bacterial Growth: Variational Bayesian Parameter Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsilifis, Panagiotis; Browning, William J.; Wood, Thomas E.; Newton, Paul K.; Ghanem, Roger G.

    2018-02-01

    We develop Bayesian methodologies for constructing and estimating a stochastic quasi-chemical model (QCM) for bacterial growth. The deterministic QCM, described as a nonlinear system of ODEs, is treated as a dynamical system with random parameters, and a variational approach is used to approximate their probability distributions and explore the propagation of uncertainty through the model. The approach consists of approximating the parameters' posterior distribution by a probability measure chosen from a parametric family, through minimization of their Kullback-Leibler divergence.

  18. Parameter Estimation for Traffic Noise Models Using a Harmony Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deok-Soon An

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A technique has been developed for predicting road traffic noise for environmental assessment, taking into account traffic volume as well as road surface conditions. The ASJ model (ASJ Prediction Model for Road Traffic Noise, 1999, which is based on the sound power level of the noise emitted by the interaction between the road surface and tires, employs regression models for two road surface types: dense-graded asphalt (DGA and permeable asphalt (PA. However, these models are not applicable to other types of road surfaces. Accordingly, this paper introduces a parameter estimation procedure for ASJ-based noise prediction models, utilizing a harmony search (HS algorithm. Traffic noise measurement data for four different vehicle types were used in the algorithm to determine the regression parameters for several road surface types. The parameters of the traffic noise prediction models were evaluated using another measurement set, and good agreement was observed between the predicted and measured sound power levels.

  19. Model-based verification method for solving the parameter uncertainty in the train control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Ruijun; Zhou, Jin; Chen, Dewang; Song, Yongduan

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a parameter analysis method to solve the parameter uncertainty problem for hybrid system and explore the correlation of key parameters for distributed control system. For improving the reusability of control model, the proposed approach provides the support for obtaining the constraint sets of all uncertain parameters in the abstract linear hybrid automata (LHA) model when satisfying the safety requirements of the train control system. Then, in order to solve the state space explosion problem, the online verification method is proposed to monitor the operating status of high-speed trains online because of the real-time property of the train control system. Furthermore, we construct the LHA formal models of train tracking model and movement authority (MA) generation process as cases to illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. In the first case, we obtain the constraint sets of uncertain parameters to avoid collision between trains. In the second case, the correlation of position report cycle and MA generation cycle is analyzed under both the normal and the abnormal condition influenced by packet-loss factor. Finally, considering stochastic characterization of time distributions and real-time feature of moving block control system, the transient probabilities of wireless communication process are obtained by stochastic time petri nets. - Highlights: • We solve the parameters uncertainty problem by using model-based method. • We acquire the parameter constraint sets by verifying linear hybrid automata models. • Online verification algorithms are designed to monitor the high-speed trains. • We analyze the correlation of key parameters and uncritical parameters. • The transient probabilities are obtained by using reliability analysis.

  20. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: I. Developing phosphorus parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.

  1. An Asymmetric Hysteresis Model and Parameter Identification Method for Piezoelectric Actuator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haichen Qin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hysteresis behaviour degrades the positioning accuracy of PZT actuator for ultrahigh-precision positioning applications. In this paper, a corrected hysteresis model based on Bouc-Wen model for modelling the asymmetric hysteresis behaviour of PZT actuator is established by introducing an input bias φ and an asymmetric factor ΔΦ into the standard Bouc-Wen hysteresis model. A modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO algorithm is established and realized to identify and optimize the model parameters. Feasibility and effectiveness of MPSO are proved by experiment and numerical simulation. The research results show that the corrected hysteresis model can represent the asymmetric hysteresis behaviour of the PZT actuator more accurately than the noncorrected hysteresis model based on the Bouc-Wen model. The MPSO parameter identification method can effectively identify the parameters of the corrected and noncorrected hysteresis models. Some cases demonstrate the corrected hysteresis model and the MPSO parameter identification method can be used to model smart materials and structure systems with the asymmetric hysteresis behaviour.

  2. Investigating the Impact of Item Parameter Drift for Item Response Theory Models with Mixture Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Soo ePark

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of item parameter drift (IPD on parameter and ability estimation when the underlying measurement model fits a mixture distribution, thereby violating the item invariance property of unidimensional item response theory (IRT models. An empirical study was conducted to demonstrate the occurrence of both IPD and an underlying mixture distribution using real-world data. Twenty-one trended anchor items from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 administrations of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS were analyzed using unidimensional and mixture IRT models. TIMSS treats trended anchor items as invariant over testing administrations and uses pre-calibrated item parameters based on unidimensional IRT. However, empirical results showed evidence of two latent subgroups with IPD. Results showed changes in the distribution of examinee ability between latent classes over the three administrations. A simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of IPD on the estimation of ability and item parameters, when data have underlying mixture distributions. Simulations used data generated from a mixture IRT model and estimated using unidimensional IRT. Results showed that data reflecting IPD using mixture IRT model led to IPD in the unidimensional IRT model. Changes in the distribution of examinee ability also affected item parameters. Moreover, drift with respect to item discrimination and distribution of examinee ability affected estimates of examinee ability. These findings demonstrate the need to caution and evaluate IPD using a mixture IRT framework to understand its effect on item parameters and examinee ability.

  3. Investigating the Impact of Item Parameter Drift for Item Response Theory Models with Mixture Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yoon Soo; Lee, Young-Sun; Xing, Kuan

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of item parameter drift (IPD) on parameter and ability estimation when the underlying measurement model fits a mixture distribution, thereby violating the item invariance property of unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. An empirical study was conducted to demonstrate the occurrence of both IPD and an underlying mixture distribution using real-world data. Twenty-one trended anchor items from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 administrations of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) were analyzed using unidimensional and mixture IRT models. TIMSS treats trended anchor items as invariant over testing administrations and uses pre-calibrated item parameters based on unidimensional IRT. However, empirical results showed evidence of two latent subgroups with IPD. Results also showed changes in the distribution of examinee ability between latent classes over the three administrations. A simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of IPD on the estimation of ability and item parameters, when data have underlying mixture distributions. Simulations used data generated from a mixture IRT model and estimated using unidimensional IRT. Results showed that data reflecting IPD using mixture IRT model led to IPD in the unidimensional IRT model. Changes in the distribution of examinee ability also affected item parameters. Moreover, drift with respect to item discrimination and distribution of examinee ability affected estimates of examinee ability. These findings demonstrate the need to caution and evaluate IPD using a mixture IRT framework to understand its effects on item parameters and examinee ability.

  4. Utilising temperature differences as constraints for estimating parameters in a simple climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodman, Roger W; Karoly, David J; Enting, Ian G

    2010-01-01

    Simple climate models can be used to estimate the global temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases. Changes in the energy balance of the global climate system are represented by equations that necessitate the use of uncertain parameters. The values of these parameters can be estimated from historical observations, model testing, and tuning to more complex models. Efforts have been made at estimating the possible ranges for these parameters. This study continues this process, but demonstrates two new constraints. Previous studies have shown that land-ocean temperature differences are only weakly correlated with global mean temperature for natural internal climate variations. Hence, these temperature differences provide additional information that can be used to help constrain model parameters. In addition, an ocean heat content ratio can also provide a further constraint. A pulse response technique was used to identify relative parameter sensitivity which confirmed the importance of climate sensitivity and ocean vertical diffusivity, but the land-ocean warming ratio and the land-ocean heat exchange coefficient were also found to be important. Experiments demonstrate the utility of the land-ocean temperature difference and ocean heat content ratio for setting parameter values. This work is based on investigations with MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) as the simple climate model.

  5. Stochastic Mixed-Effects Parameters Bertalanffy Process, with Applications to Tree Crown Width Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petras Rupšys

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic modeling approach based on the Bertalanffy law gained interest due to its ability to produce more accurate results than the deterministic approaches. We examine tree crown width dynamic with the Bertalanffy type stochastic differential equation (SDE and mixed-effects parameters. In this study, we demonstrate how this simple model can be used to calculate predictions of crown width. We propose a parameter estimation method and computational guidelines. The primary goal of the study was to estimate the parameters by considering discrete sampling of the diameter at breast height and crown width and by using maximum likelihood procedure. Performance statistics for the crown width equation include statistical indexes and analysis of residuals. We use data provided by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory from Scots pine trees to illustrate issues of our modeling technique. Comparison of the predicted crown width values of mixed-effects parameters model with those obtained using fixed-effects parameters model demonstrates the predictive power of the stochastic differential equations model with mixed-effects parameters. All results were implemented in a symbolic algebra system MAPLE.

  6. A framework for scalable parameter estimation of gene circuit models using structural information

    KAUST Repository

    Kuwahara, Hiroyuki

    2013-06-21

    Motivation: Systematic and scalable parameter estimation is a key to construct complex gene regulatory models and to ultimately facilitate an integrative systems biology approach to quantitatively understand the molecular mechanisms underpinning gene regulation. Results: Here, we report a novel framework for efficient and scalable parameter estimation that focuses specifically on modeling of gene circuits. Exploiting the structure commonly found in gene circuit models, this framework decomposes a system of coupled rate equations into individual ones and efficiently integrates them separately to reconstruct the mean time evolution of the gene products. The accuracy of the parameter estimates is refined by iteratively increasing the accuracy of numerical integration using the model structure. As a case study, we applied our framework to four gene circuit models with complex dynamics based on three synthetic datasets and one time series microarray data set. We compared our framework to three state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods and found that our approach consistently generated higher quality parameter solutions efficiently. Although many general-purpose parameter estimation methods have been applied for modeling of gene circuits, our results suggest that the use of more tailored approaches to use domain-specific information may be a key to reverse engineering of complex biological systems. The Author 2013.

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modeling Potential Distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm), an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2), high temperature limit (DV3), upper optimal temperature (SM2) and high soil moisture limit (SM3) had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well. PMID:24722140

  8. THREE-PARAMETER CREEP DAMAGE CONSTITUTIVE MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN HYDRAULIC TUNNELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Gang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Rock deformation is a time-dependent process, generally referred to as rheology. Especially for soft rock strata, design and construction of tunnel shall take full account of rheological properties of adjoining rocks. Based on classic three-parameter HK model (generalized Kelvin model, this paper proposes a three-parameter H-K damage model of which parameters attenuate with increase of equivalent strain, provides attenuation equation of model parameters in the first, second and third stage of creep deformation and introduces equivalent strain threshold value. When the equivalent strain is greater than the threshold value, the third stage of accelerating creep will be conducted. The three-parameter H-K damage model is used for numerical calculation of finite difference method FLAC3D and deformation features of soft rock with time under high ground stress are described based on diversion tunnel project of Jinping Hydropower Station, of which model parameters can be obtained by back analysis according to measured site data and BP neural network.

  9. Sensitivity analysis of CLIMEX parameters in modeling potential distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Shabani

    Full Text Available Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm, an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2, high temperature limit (DV3, upper optimal temperature (SM2 and high soil moisture limit (SM3 had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well.

  10. A review of parameter estimation used in solar photovoltaic system for a single diode model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabudin, Siti Nurashiken Md; Jamil, Norazaliza Mohd; Rosli, Norhayati

    2017-09-01

    With increased demand for theoretical solar energy, the mathematical modelling of the solar photovoltaic (PV) system has gained importance. Numerous mathematical models have been developed for different purposes. In this paper, we briefly review the progress made in the mathematical modelling of solar photovoltaic (PV) system over the last twenty years. First, a general classification of these models is made. Then, the basic characteristics of the models along with the objectives and different parameters considered in modelling are discussed. The assumptions and approximations made also parameter estimation method in solving the models are summarized. This may facilitate the mathematicians to adopt better understanding of the modelling strategies and further to develop suitable models in this direction relevant to the present scenario.

  11. On the in-vivo photochemical rate parameters for PDT reactive oxygen species modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Michele M.; Ghogare, Ashwini A.; Greer, Alexander; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-01-01

    Photosensitizer photochemical parameters are crucial data in accurate dosimetry for photodynamic therapy (PDT) based on photochemical modeling. Progress has been made in the last few decades in determining the photochemical properties of commonly used photosensitizers (PS), but mostly in solution or in-vitro. Recent developments allow for the estimation of some of these photochemical parameters in-vivo. This review will cover the currently available in-vivo photochemical properties of photosensitizers as well as the techniques for measuring those parameters. Furthermore, photochemical parameters that are independent of environmental factors or are universal for different photosensitizers will be examined. Most photosensitizers discussed in this review are of the type II (singlet oxygen) photooxidation category, although type I photosensitizers that involve other reactive oxygen species (ROS) will be discussed as well. The compilation of these parameters will be essential for ROS modeling of PDT. PMID:28166056

  12. A robust methodology for kinetic model parameter estimation for biocatalytic reactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Haque, Naweed; Andrade Santacoloma, Paloma de Gracia; Lima Afonso Neto, Watson

    2012-01-01

    Effective estimation of parameters in biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions are very important when building process models to enable evaluation of process technology options and alternative biocatalysts. The kinetic models used to describe enzyme-catalyzed reactions generally include several...... parameters, which are strongly correlated with each other. State-of-the-art methodologies such as nonlinear regression (using progress curves) or graphical analysis (using initial rate data, for example, the Lineweaver-Burke plot, Hanes plot or Dixon plot) often incorporate errors in the estimates and rarely...... lead to globally optimized parameter values. In this article, a robust methodology to estimate parameters for biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions is proposed. The methodology determines the parameters in a systematic manner by exploiting the best features of several of the current approaches...

  13. The performance of simulated annealing in parameter estimation for vapor-liquid equilibrium modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bonilla-Petriciolet

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we report the application and evaluation of the simulated annealing (SA optimization method in parameter estimation for vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE modeling. We tested this optimization method using the classical least squares and error-in-variable approaches. The reliability and efficiency of the data-fitting procedure are also considered using different values for algorithm parameters of the SA method. Our results indicate that this method, when properly implemented, is a robust procedure for nonlinear parameter estimation in thermodynamic models. However, in difficult problems it still can converge to local optimums of the objective function.

  14. Parameter Estimation of a Plucked String Synthesis Model Using a Genetic Algorithm with Perceptual Fitness Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riionheimo Janne

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe a technique for estimating control parameters for a plucked string synthesis model using a genetic algorithm. The model has been intensively used for sound synthesis of various string instruments but the fine tuning of the parameters has been carried out with a semiautomatic method that requires some hand adjustment with human listening. An automated method for extracting the parameters from recorded tones is described in this paper. The calculation of the fitness function utilizes knowledge of the properties of human hearing.

  15. An evolutionary computing approach for parameter estimation investigation of a model for cholera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akman, Olcay; Schaefer, Elsa

    2015-01-01

    We consider the problem of using time-series data to inform a corresponding deterministic model and introduce the concept of genetic algorithms (GA) as a tool for parameter estimation, providing instructions for an implementation of the method that does not require access to special toolboxes or software. We give as an example a model for cholera, a disease for which there is much mechanistic uncertainty in the literature. We use GA to find parameter sets using available time-series data from the introduction of cholera in Haiti and we discuss the value of comparing multiple parameter sets with similar performances in describing the data.

  16. INFLUENCE OF PROCESS PARAMETERS ON DIMENSIONAL ACCURACY OF PARTS MANUFACTURED USING FUSED DEPOSITION MODELLING TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Górski

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of experimental study – part of research of additive technology using thermoplastics as a build material, namely Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM. Aim of the study was to identify the relation between basic parameter of the FDM process – model orientation during manufacturing – and a dimensional accuracy and repeatability of obtained products. A set of samples was prepared – they were manufactured with variable process parameters and they were measured using 3D scanner. Significant differences in accuracy of products of the same geometry, but manufactured with different set of process parameters were observed.

  17. Definition of Saturn's magnetospheric model parameters for the Pioneer 11 flyby

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Belenkaya

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a description of a method for selection parameters for a global paraboloid model of Saturn's magnetosphere. The model is based on the preexisting paraboloid terrestrial and Jovian models of the magnetospheric field. Interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, i.e. the magnetotail current system, and the magnetopause currents screening all magnetospheric field sources, is taken into account. The input model parameters are determined from observations of the Pioneer 11 inbound flyby.

  18. A three-parameter model for fatigue crack growth data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. De Iorio

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A three-parameters model for the interpolation of fatigue crack propagation data is proposed. It has been validated by a Literature data set obtained by testing 180 M(T specimens under three different loading levels. In details, it is highlighted that the results of the analysis carried out by means of the proposed model are more smooth and clear than those obtainable using other methods or models. Also, the parameters of the model have been computed and some peculiarities have been picked out.

  19. An Improved Swarm Optimization for Parameter Estimation and Biological Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Anwar, Sohail

    2013-01-01

    One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete experimental data. This

  20. An improved swarm optimization for parameter estimation and biological model selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afnizanfaizal Abdullah

    Full Text Available One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete

  1. Parameters in dynamic models of complex traits are containers of missing heritability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Wang

    Full Text Available Polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of human traits rarely explain more than a small proportion of the heritable variation, and improving this situation within the current paradigm appears daunting. Given a well-validated dynamic model of a complex physiological trait, a substantial part of the underlying genetic variation must manifest as variation in model parameters. These parameters are themselves phenotypic traits. By linking whole-cell phenotypic variation to genetic variation in a computational model of a single heart cell, incorporating genotype-to-parameter maps, we show that genome-wide association studies on parameters reveal much more genetic variation than when using higher-level cellular phenotypes. The results suggest that letting such studies be guided by computational physiology may facilitate a causal understanding of the genotype-to-phenotype map of complex traits, with strong implications for the development of phenomics technology.

  2. Parameter estimation of Monod model by the Least-Squares method for microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp

    Science.gov (United States)

    See, J. J.; Jamaian, S. S.; Salleh, R. M.; Nor, M. E.; Aman, F.

    2018-04-01

    This research aims to estimate the parameters of Monod model of microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp growth by the Least-Squares method. Monod equation is a non-linear equation which can be transformed into a linear equation form and it is solved by implementing the Least-Squares linear regression method. Meanwhile, Gauss-Newton method is an alternative method to solve the non-linear Least-Squares problem with the aim to obtain the parameters value of Monod model by minimizing the sum of square error ( SSE). As the result, the parameters of the Monod model for microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp can be estimated by the Least-Squares method. However, the estimated parameters value obtained by the non-linear Least-Squares method are more accurate compared to the linear Least-Squares method since the SSE of the non-linear Least-Squares method is less than the linear Least-Squares method.

  3. Queue-based modelling and detection of parameters involved in stroke outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vilic, Adnan; Petersen, John Asger; Wienecke, Troels

    2017-01-01

    We designed a queue-based model, and investigated which parameters are of importance when predicting stroke outcome. Medical record forms have been collected for 57 ischemic stroke patients, including medical history and vital sign measurement along with neurological scores for the first twenty-f......, where outcome for patients were 36.75 ± 10.99. The queue-based model integrating multiple linear regression shows promising results for automatic selection of significant medically relevant parameters.......-four hours of admission. The importance of each parameter is identified using multiple regression combined with a circular queue to iteratively fit outcome. Out of 39 parameters, the model isolated 14 which combined could estimate outcome with a root mean square error of 1.69 on the Scandinavian Stroke Scale...

  4. Application of Powell's optimization method to surge arrester circuit models' parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christodoulou, C.A.; Stathopulos, I.A. [National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 9 Iroon Politechniou St., Zografou Campus, 157 80 Athens (Greece); Vita, V.; Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [A.S.PE.T.E. - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece)

    2010-08-15

    Powell's optimization method has been used for the evaluation of the surge arrester models parameters. The proper modelling of metal-oxide surge arresters and the right selection of equivalent circuit parameters are very significant issues, since quality and reliability of lightning performance studies can be improved with the more efficient representation of the arresters' dynamic behavior. The proposed approach selects optimum arrester model equivalent circuit parameter values, minimizing the error between the simulated peak residual voltage value and this given by the manufacturer. Application of the method in performed on a 120 kV metal oxide arrester. The use of the obtained optimum parameter values reduces significantly the relative error between the simulated and manufacturer's peak residual voltage value, presenting the effectiveness of the method. (author)

  5. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  6. Prediction Model of Battery State of Charge and Control Parameter Optimization for Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Wahono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the construction of a battery state of charge (SOC prediction model and the optimization method of the said model to appropriately control the number of parameters in compliance with the SOC as the battery output objectives. Research Centre for Electrical Power and Mechatronics, Indonesian Institute of Sciences has tested its electric vehicle research prototype on the road, monitoring its voltage, current, temperature, time, vehicle velocity, motor speed, and SOC during the operation. Using this experimental data, the prediction model of battery SOC was built. Stepwise method considering multicollinearity was able to efficiently develops the battery prediction model that describes the multiple control parameters in relation to the characteristic values such as SOC. It was demonstrated that particle swarm optimization (PSO succesfully and efficiently calculated optimal control parameters to optimize evaluation item such as SOC based on the model.

  7. Bankruptcy prediction using SVM models with a new approach to combine features selection and parameter optimisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ligang; Keung Lai, Kin; Yen, Jerome

    2014-03-01

    Due to the economic significance of bankruptcy prediction of companies for financial institutions, investors and governments, many quantitative methods have been used to develop effective prediction models. Support vector machine (SVM), a powerful classification method, has been used for this task; however, the performance of SVM is sensitive to model form, parameter setting and features selection. In this study, a new approach based on direct search and features ranking technology is proposed to optimise features selection and parameter setting for 1-norm and least-squares SVM models for bankruptcy prediction. This approach is also compared to the SVM models with parameter optimisation and features selection by the popular genetic algorithm technique. The experimental results on a data set with 2010 instances show that the proposed models are good alternatives for bankruptcy prediction.

  8. Mathematical Modeling And Simulation of Photo-Voltaic Converter Operation when Varying Different Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miholca CONSTANTIN

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a method of mathematical modelling of a solar converter using the results of full-scale testing. The advantages of analytical modelling method applied to photovoltaic systems are also presented; this is because the model parameters are directly measurable by data acquisition from the photovoltaic field consisting of photovoltaic cells type Z - (mono-crystalline photovoltaic. The model parameter also includes both the photovoltaic cell characteristics as a device (forming the photovoltaic field and the temperature influence on the photovoltaic field performance. The results of the photovoltaic model numerical simulation (PV to the major parameters conversion variation can also be used to design and assess the performance of low and medium - power photovoltaic systems operating in single regime (to supply the home appliances.

  9. Parameter identification of ZnO surge arrester models based on genetic algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayadi, Abdelhafid [Laboratoire d' Automatique de Setif, Departement d' Electrotechnique, Faculte des Sciences de l' Ingenieur, Universite Ferhat ABBAS de Setif, Route de Bejaia Setif 19000 (Algeria)

    2008-07-15

    The correct and adequate modelling of ZnO surge arresters characteristics is very important for insulation coordination studies and systems reliability. In this context many researchers addressed considerable efforts to the development of surge arresters models to reproduce the dynamic characteristics observed in their behaviour when subjected to fast front impulse currents. The difficulties with these models reside essentially in the calculation and the adjustment of their parameters. This paper proposes a new technique based on genetic algorithm to obtain the best possible series of parameter values of ZnO surge arresters models. The validity of the predicted parameters is then checked by comparing the predicted results with the experimental results available in the literature. Using the ATP-EMTP package, an application of the arrester model on network system studies is presented and discussed. (author)

  10. Parameter estimation from flowing fluid temperature logging data in unsaturated fractured rock using multiphase inverse modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Tsang, Y.; Finsterle, S.

    2009-01-15

    A simple conceptual model has been recently developed for analyzing pressure and temperature data from flowing fluid temperature logging (FFTL) in unsaturated fractured rock. Using this conceptual model, we developed an analytical solution for FFTL pressure response, and a semianalytical solution for FFTL temperature response. We also proposed a method for estimating fracture permeability from FFTL temperature data. The conceptual model was based on some simplifying assumptions, particularly that a single-phase airflow model was used. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive numerical model of multiphase flow and heat transfer associated with FFTL. Using this numerical model, we perform a number of forward simulations to determine the parameters that have the strongest influence on the pressure and temperature response from FFTL. We then use the iTOUGH2 optimization code to estimate these most sensitive parameters through inverse modeling and to quantify the uncertainties associated with these estimated parameters. We conclude that FFTL can be utilized to determine permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity of the fracture rock. Two other parameters, which are not properties of the fractured rock, have strong influence on FFTL response. These are pressure and temperature in the borehole that were at equilibrium with the fractured rock formation at the beginning of FFTL. We illustrate how these parameters can also be estimated from FFTL data.

  11. A simplified method to assess structurally identifiable parameters in Monod-based activated sludge models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Britta; Gernaey, Krist; Devisscher, Martijn; Dochain, Denis; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2003-07-01

    The first step in the estimation of parameters of models applied for data interpretation should always be an investigation of the identifiability of the model parameters. In this study the structural identifiability of the model parameters of Monod-based activated sludge models (ASM) was studied. In an illustrative example it was assumed that respirometric (dissolved oxygen or oxygen uptake rates) and titrimetric (cumulative proton production) measurements were available for the characterisation of nitrification. Two model structures, including the presence and absence of significant growth for description of long- and short-term experiments, respectively, were considered. The structural identifiability was studied via the series expansion methods. It was proven that the autotrophic yield becomes uniquely identifiable when combined respirometric and titrimetric data are assumed for the characterisation of nitrification. The most remarkable result of the study was, however, that the identifiability results could be generalised by applying a set of ASM1 matrix based generalisation rules. It appeared that the identifiable parameter combinations could be predicted directly based on the knowledge of the process model under study (in ASM1-like matrix representation), the measured variables and the biodegradable substrate considered. This generalisation reduces the time-consuming task of deriving the structurally identifiable model parameters significantly and helps the user to obtain these directly without the necessity to go too deeply into the mathematical background of structural identifiability.

  12. CIMI simulations with recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryan, Homayon; Sibeck, David; Kang, Suk-bin; Balikhin, Michael; Fok, Mei-ching

    2017-04-01

    Simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are very useful in understanding the acceleration and loss of energetic particles. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model considers the effects of the ring current and plasmasphere on the radiation belts. CIMI was formed by merging the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) and the Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model to solves for many essential quantities in the inner magnetosphere, including radiation belt enhancements and dropouts. It incorporates chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave diffusion of energetic electrons in energy, pitch angle, and cross terms. Usually the chorus and plasmaspheric hiss models used in CIMI are based on single-parameter geomagnetic index (AE). Here we integrate recently developed multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We then perform CIMI simulations for different storms and compare the results with data from the Van Allen Probes and the Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers and Akebono satellites. We find that the CIMI simulations with multi-parameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models are more comparable to data than the single-parameter wave models.

  13. Relationship between anaerobic parameters provided from MAOD and critical power model in specific table tennis test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagatto, A M; Gobatto, C A

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the validity of the curvature constant parameter (W'), calculated from 2-parameter mathematical equations of critical power model, in estimating the anaerobic capacity and anaerobic work capacity from a table tennis-specific test. Specifically, we aimed to i) compare constants estimated from three critical intensity models in a table tennis-specific test (Cf); ii) correlate each estimated W' with the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD); iii) correlate each W' with the total amount of anaerobic work (W ANAER) performed in each exercise bout performed during the Cf test. Nine national-standard male table tennis players participated in the study. MAOD was 63.0(10.8) mL · kg - 1 and W' values were 32.8(6.6) balls for the linear-frequency model, 38.3(6.9) balls for linear-total balls model, 48.7(8.9) balls for Nonlinear-2 parameter model. Estimated W' from the Nonlinear 2-parameter model was significantly different from W' from the other 2 models (P0.13). Thus, W' estimated from the 2-parameter mathematical equations did not correlate with MAOD or W ANAER in table tennis-specific tests, indicating that W' may not provide a strong and valid estimation of anaerobic capacity and anaerobic capacity work. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  14. A new method to estimate parameters of linear compartmental models using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambhir, Sanjiv S.; Keppenne, Christian L.; Phelps, Michael E.; Banerjee, Pranab K.

    1998-01-01

    At present, the preferred tool for parameter estimation in compartmental analysis is an iterative procedure; weighted nonlinear regression. For a large number of applications, observed data can be fitted to sums of exponentials whose parameters are directly related to the rate constants/coefficients of the compartmental models. Since weighted nonlinear regression often has to be repeated for many different data sets, the process of fitting data from compartmental systems can be very time consuming. Furthermore the minimization routine often converges to a local (as opposed to global) minimum. In this paper, we examine the possibility of using artificial neural networks instead of weighted nonlinear regression in order to estimate model parameters. We train simple feed-forward neural networks to produce as outputs the parameter values of a given model when kinetic data are fed to the networks' input layer. The artificial neural networks produce unbiased estimates and are orders of magnitude faster than regression algorithms. At noise levels typical of many real applications, the neural networks are found to produce lower variance estimates than weighted nonlinear regression in the estimation of parameters from mono- and biexponential models. These results are primarily due to the inability of weighted nonlinear regression to converge. These results establish that artificial neural networks are powerful tools for estimating parameters for simple compartmental models. (author)

  15. A critical study of quality parameters in health care establishment: developing an integrated quality model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azam, Mohammad; Rahman, Zillur; Talib, Faisal; Singh, K J

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to identify and critically analyze healthcare establishment (HCE) quality parameters described in the literature. It aims to propose an integrated quality model that includes technical quality and associated supportive quality parameters to achieve optimum patient satisfaction. The authors use an extensive in-depth healthcare quality literature review, discerning gaps via a critical analysis in relation to their overall impact on patient management, while identifying an integrated quality model acceptable to hospital staff. The article provides insights into contemporary HCE quality parameters by critically analyzing relevant literature. It also evolves and proposes an integrated HCE-quality model. Owing to HCE confidentiality, especially regarding patient data, information cannot be accessed. The integrated quality model parameters have practical utility for healthcare service managers. However, further studies may be required to refine and integrate newer parameters to ensure continuous quality improvement. This article adds a new perspective to understanding quality parameters and suggests an integrated quality model that has practical value for maintaining HCE service quality to benefit many stakeholders.

  16. Assessing composition and structure of soft biphasic media from Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong Mei; Wang, Yue; Fatemi, Mostafa; Insana, Michael F

    2017-03-01

    Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative (KVFD) model parameters have been used to describe viscoelastic properties of soft tissues. However, translating model parameters into a concise set of intrinsic mechanical properties related to tissue composition and structure remains challenging. This paper begins by exploring these relationships using a biphasic emulsion materials with known composition. Mechanical properties are measured by analyzing data from two indentation techniques - ramp-stress relaxation and load-unload hysteresis tests. Material composition is predictably correlated with viscoelastic model parameters. Model parameters estimated from the tests reveal that elastic modulus E 0 closely approximates the shear modulus for pure gelatin. Fractional-order parameter α and time constant τ vary monotonically with the volume fraction of the material's fluid component. α characterizes medium fluidity and the rate of energy dissipation, and τ is a viscous time constant. Numerical simulations suggest that the viscous coefficient η is proportional to the energy lost during quasi-static force-displacement cycles, E A . The slope of E A versus η is determined by α and the applied indentation ramp time T r . Experimental measurements from phantom and ex vivo liver data show close agreement with theoretical predictions of the η - E A relation. The relative error is less than 20% for emulsions 22% for liver. We find that KVFD model parameters form a concise features space for biphasic medium characterization that described time-varying mechanical properties.

  17. Parameter Identification of the 2-Chlorophenol Oxidation Model Using Improved Differential Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-zhou Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification plays a crucial role for simulating and using model. This paper firstly carried out the sensitivity analysis of the 2-chlorophenol oxidation model in supercritical water using the Monte Carlo method. Then, to address the nonlinearity of the model, two improved differential search (DS algorithms were proposed to carry out the parameter identification of the model. One strategy is to adopt the Latin hypercube sampling method to replace the uniform distribution of initial population; the other is to combine DS with simplex method. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal the sensitivity and the degree of difficulty identified for every model parameter. Furthermore, the posteriori probability distribution of parameters and the collaborative relationship between any two parameters can be obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the improved algorithms, the optimization performance of improved DS in kinetic parameter estimation is studied and compared with that of the basic DS algorithm, differential evolution, artificial bee colony optimization, and quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. And the experimental results demonstrate that the DS with the Latin hypercube sampling method does not present better performance, while the hybrid methods have the advantages of strong global search ability and local search ability and are more effective than the other algorithms.

  18. Re-estimating temperature-dependent consumption parameters in bioenergetics models for juvenile Chinook salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumb, John M.; Moffitt, Christine M.

    2015-01-01

    Researchers have cautioned against the borrowing of consumption and growth parameters from other species and life stages in bioenergetics growth models. In particular, the function that dictates temperature dependence in maximum consumption (Cmax) within the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha produces estimates that are lower than those measured in published laboratory feeding trials. We used published and unpublished data from laboratory feeding trials with subyearling Chinook Salmon from three stocks (Snake, Nechako, and Big Qualicum rivers) to estimate and adjust the model parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax. The data included growth measures in fish ranging from 1.5 to 7.2 g that were held at temperatures from 14°C to 26°C. Parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax were estimated based on relative differences in food consumption, and bootstrapping techniques were then used to estimate the error about the parameters. We found that at temperatures between 17°C and 25°C, the current parameter values did not match the observed data, indicating that Cmax should be shifted by about 4°C relative to the current implementation under the bioenergetics model. We conclude that the adjusted parameters for Cmax should produce more accurate predictions from the bioenergetics model for subyearling Chinook Salmon.

  19. Kinetic Parameters of Thermal Decomposition Process Analyzed using a Mathematical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Ekawati, R.; Wibawa, S. C.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to show a mathematical analysis model for understanding kinetic parameters of thermal decomposition process. The mathematical model was derived based on phenomena happen during the thermal-related reaction. To get the kinetic parameters (i.e. reaction order, activation energy, and Arrhenius constant), the model was combined with the thermal characteristics of material gained from the thermal gravity (TG) and differential thermal analysis (DTA) curves. As an example, the model was used for analyzing the kinetic properties of trinitrotoluene. Interestingly, identical results gained from the present model with current literatures were obtained; in which these were because the present model was derived directly from the analysis of stoichiometrical and thermal analysis of the ideal chemical reaction. Since the present model confirmed to have a good agreement with current theories, further derivation from the present mathematical model can be useful for further development.

  20. The sensitivity of flowline models of tidewater glaciers to parameter uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Enderlin

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Depth-integrated (1-D flowline models have been widely used to simulate fast-flowing tidewater glaciers and predict change because the continuous grounding line tracking, high horizontal resolution, and physically based calving criterion that are essential to realistic modeling of tidewater glaciers can easily be incorporated into the models while maintaining high computational efficiency. As with all models, the values for parameters describing ice rheology and basal friction must be assumed and/or tuned based on observations. For prognostic studies, these parameters are typically tuned so that the glacier matches observed thickness and speeds at an initial state, to which a perturbation is applied. While it is well know that ice flow models are sensitive to these parameters, the sensitivity of tidewater glacier models has not been systematically investigated. Here we investigate the sensitivity of such flowline models of outlet glacier dynamics to uncertainty in three key parameters that influence a glacier's resistive stress components. We find that, within typical observational uncertainty, similar initial (i.e., steady-state glacier configurations can be produced with substantially different combinations of parameter values, leading to differing transient responses after a perturbation is applied. In cases where the glacier is initially grounded near flotation across a basal over-deepening, as typically observed for rapidly changing glaciers, these differences can be dramatic owing to the threshold of stability imposed by the flotation criterion. The simulated transient response is particularly sensitive to the parameterization of ice rheology: differences in ice temperature of ~ 2 °C can determine whether the glaciers thin to flotation and retreat unstably or remain grounded on a marine shoal. Due to the highly non-linear dependence of tidewater glaciers on model parameters, we recommend that their predictions are accompanied by

  1. A parameter network and model pyramid for managing technical information flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinnock, S.; Hartman, H.A.

    1994-01-01

    Prototypes of information management tools have been developed that can help communicate the technical basis for nuclear waste disposal to a broad audience of program scientists and engineers, project managers, and informed observers from stakeholder organizations. These tools include system engineering concepts, parameter networks expressed as influence diagrams, associated model hierarchies, and a relational database. These tools are used to express relationships among data-collection parameters, model input parameters, model output parameters, systems requirements, physical elements of a system description, and functional analysis of the contribution of physical elements and their associated parameters in satisfying the system requirements. By organizing parameters, models, physical elements, functions, and requirements in a visually reviewable network and a relational database the severe communication challenges facing participants in the nuclear waste dialog can be addressed. The network identifies the influences that data collected in the field have on measures of repository suitability, providing a visual, traceable map that clarifies the role of data and models in supporting conclusions about repository suitability. The map allows conclusions to be traced directly to the underlying parameters and models. Uncertainty in these underlying elements can be exposed to open review in the context of the effects uncertainty has on judgements about suitability. A parameter network provides a stage upon which an informed social dialog about the technical merits of a nuclear waste repository can be conducted. The basis for such dialog must be that stage, if decisions about repository suitability are to be based on a repository's ability to meet requirements embodied in laws and regulations governing disposal of nuclear wastes

  2. Study on Identification of Material Model Parameters from Compact Tension Test on Concrete Specimens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokes, Filip; Kral, Petr; Husek, Martin; Kala, Jiri

    2017-10-01

    Identification of a concrete material model parameters using optimization is based on a calculation of a difference between experimentally measured and numerically obtained data. Measure of the difference can be formulated via root mean squared error that is often used for determination of accuracy of a mathematical model in the field of meteorology or demography. The quality of the identified parameters is, however, determined not only by right choice of an objective function but also by the source experimental data. One of the possible way is to use load-displacement curves from three-point bending tests that were performed on concrete specimens. This option shows the significance of modulus of elasticity, tensile strength and specific fracture energy. Another possible option is to use experimental data from compact tension test. It is clear that the response in the second type of test is also dependent on the above mentioned material parameters. The question is whether the parameters identified within three-point bending test and within compact tension test will reach the same values. The presented article brings the numerical study of inverse identification of material model parameters from experimental data measured during compact tension tests. The article also presents utilization of the modified sensitivity analysis that calculates the sensitivity of the material model parameters for different parts of loading curve. The main goal of the article is to describe the process of inverse identification of parameters for plasticity-based material model of concrete and prepare data for future comparison with identified values of the material model parameters from different type of fracture tests.

  3. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: a Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, M.; Hogue, T.S.; Franz, K.J.; Margulis, S.A.; Vrugt, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood

  4. Assessing robustness of designs for random effects parameters for nonlinear mixed-effects models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffull, Stephen B; Hooker, Andrew C

    2017-12-01

    Optimal designs for nonlinear models are dependent on the choice of parameter values. Various methods have been proposed to provide designs that are robust to uncertainty in the prior choice of parameter values. These methods are generally based on estimating the expectation of the determinant (or a transformation of the determinant) of the information matrix over the prior distribution of the parameter values. For high dimensional models this can be computationally challenging. For nonlinear mixed-effects models the question arises as to the importance of accounting for uncertainty in the prior value of the variances of the random effects parameters. In this work we explore the influence of the variance of the random effects parameters on the optimal design. We find that the method for approximating the expectation and variance of the likelihood is of potential importance for considering the influence of random effects. The most common approximation to the likelihood, based on a first-order Taylor series approximation, yields designs that are relatively insensitive to the prior value of the variance of the random effects parameters and under these conditions it appears to be sufficient to consider uncertainty on the fixed-effects parameters only.

  5. Optimization-Based Inverse Identification of the Parameters of a Concrete Cap Material Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Král, Petr; Hokeš, Filip; Hušek, Martin; Kala, Jiří; Hradil, Petr

    2017-10-01

    Issues concerning the advanced numerical analysis of concrete building structures in sophisticated computing systems currently require the involvement of nonlinear mechanics tools. The efforts to design safer, more durable and mainly more economically efficient concrete structures are supported via the use of advanced nonlinear concrete material models and the geometrically nonlinear approach. The application of nonlinear mechanics tools undoubtedly presents another step towards the approximation of the real behaviour of concrete building structures within the framework of computer numerical simulations. However, the success rate of this application depends on having a perfect understanding of the behaviour of the concrete material models used and having a perfect understanding of the used material model parameters meaning. The effective application of nonlinear concrete material models within computer simulations often becomes very problematic because these material models very often contain parameters (material constants) whose values are difficult to obtain. However, getting of the correct values of material parameters is very important to ensure proper function of a concrete material model used. Today, one possibility, which permits successful solution of the mentioned problem, is the use of optimization algorithms for the purpose of the optimization-based inverse material parameter identification. Parameter identification goes hand in hand with experimental investigation while it trying to find parameter values of the used material model so that the resulting data obtained from the computer simulation will best approximate the experimental data. This paper is focused on the optimization-based inverse identification of the parameters of a concrete cap material model which is known under the name the Continuous Surface Cap Model. Within this paper, material parameters of the model are identified on the basis of interaction between nonlinear computer simulations

  6. Uncertainty from synergistic effects of multiple parameters in the Johnson and Ettinger (1991) vapor intrusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Fred D.; Weaver, James W.

    Migration of volatile chemicals from the subsurface into overlying buildings is known as vapor intrusion (VI). Under certain circumstances, people living in homes above contaminated soil or ground water may be exposed to harmful levels of these vapors. VI is a particularly difficult pathway to assess, as challenges exist in delineating subsurface contributions to measured indoor-air concentrations as well as in adequate characterization of subsurface parameters necessary to calibrate a predictive flow and transport model. Often, a screening-level model is employed to determine if a potential indoor inhalation exposure pathway exists and, if such a pathway is complete, whether long-term exposure increases the occupants' risk for cancer or other toxic effects to an unacceptable level. A popular screening-level algorithm currently in wide use in the United States, Canada and the UK for making such determinations is the "Johnson and Ettinger" (J&E) model. Concern exists over using the J&E model for deciding whether or not further action is necessary at sites as many parameters are not routinely measured (or are un-measurable). Many screening decisions are then made based on simulations using "best estimate" look-up parameter values. While research exists on the sensitivity of the J&E model to individual parameter uncertainty, little published information is available on the combined effects of multiple uncertain parameters and their effect on screening decisions. This paper presents results of multiple-parameter uncertainty analyses using the J&E model to evaluate risk to humans from VI. Software was developed to produce automated uncertainty analyses of the model. Results indicate an increase in predicted cancer risk from multiple-parameter uncertainty by nearly a factor of 10 compared with single-parameter uncertainty. Additionally, a positive skew in model response to variation of some parameters was noted for both single and multiple parameter uncertainty analyses

  7. Input parameters for LEAP and analysis of the Model 22C data base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, L.; Goldstein, M.

    1981-05-01

    The input data for the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) employed by EIA for projections of long-term energy supply and demand in the US were studied and additional documentation provided. Particular emphasis has been placed on the LEAP Model 22C input data base, which was used in obtaining the output projections which appear in the 1978 Annual Report to Congress. Definitions, units, associated model parameters, and translation equations are given in detail. Many parameters were set to null values in Model 22C so as to turn off certain complexities in LEAP; these parameters are listed in Appendix B along with parameters having constant values across all activities. The values of the parameters for each activity are tabulated along with the source upon which each parameter is based - and appropriate comments provided, where available. The structure of the data base is briefly outlined and an attempt made to categorize the parameters according to the methods employed for estimating the numerical values. Due to incomplete documentation and/or lack of specific parameter definitions, few of the input values could be traced and uniquely interpreted using the information provided in the primary and secondary sources. Input parameter choices were noted which led to output projections which are somewhat suspect. Other data problems encountered are summarized. Some of the input data were corrected and a revised base case was constructed. The output projections for this revised case are compared with the Model 22C output for the year 2020, for the Transportation Sector. LEAP could be a very useful tool, especially so in the study of emerging technologies over long-time frames.

  8. Field tests and machine learning approaches for refining algorithms and correlations of driver's model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tango, Fabio; Minin, Luca; Tesauri, Francesco; Montanari, Roberto

    2010-03-01

    This paper describes the field tests on a driving simulator carried out to validate the algorithms and the correlations of dynamic parameters, specifically driving task demand and drivers' distraction, able to predict drivers' intentions. These parameters belong to the driver's model developed by AIDE (Adaptive Integrated Driver-vehicle InterfacE) European Integrated Project. Drivers' behavioural data have been collected from the simulator tests to model and validate these parameters using machine learning techniques, specifically the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and the artificial neural network (ANN). Two models of task demand and distraction have been developed, one for each adopted technique. The paper provides an overview of the driver's model, the description of the task demand and distraction modelling and the tests conducted for the validation of these parameters. A test comparing predicted and expected outcomes of the modelled parameters for each machine learning technique has been carried out: for distraction, in particular, promising results (low prediction errors) have been obtained by adopting an artificial neural network.

  9. Spatial extrapolation of light use efficiency model parameters to predict gross primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karsten Schulz

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available To capture the spatial and temporal variability of the gross primary production as a key component of the global carbon cycle, the light use efficiency modeling approach in combination with remote sensing data has shown to be well suited. Typically, the model parameters, such as the maximum light use efficiency, are either set to a universal constant or to land class dependent values stored in look-up tables. In this study, we employ the machine learning technique support vector regression to explicitly relate the model parameters of a light use efficiency model calibrated at several FLUXNET sites to site-specific characteristics obtained by meteorological measurements, ecological estimations and remote sensing data. A feature selection algorithm extracts the relevant site characteristics in a cross-validation, and leads to an individual set of characteristic attributes for each parameter. With this set of attributes, the model parameters can be estimated at sites where a parameter calibration is not possible due to the absence of eddy covariance flux measurement data. This will finally allow a spatially continuous model application. The performance of the spatial extrapolation scheme is evaluated with a cross-validation approach, which shows the methodology to be well suited to recapture the variability of gross primary production across the study sites.

  10. Bayesian Analysis Diagnostics: Diagnosing Predictive and Parameter Uncertainty for Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyer, Mark; Kavetski, Dmitri; Evin, Guillaume; Kuczera, George; Renard, Ben; McInerney, David

    2015-04-01

    All scientific and statistical analysis, particularly in natural sciences, is based on approximations and assumptions. For example, the calibration of hydrological models using approaches such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and/or simple least squares (SLS) objective functions may appear to be 'assumption-free'. However, this is a naïve point of view, as SLS assumes that the model residuals (residuals=observed-predictions) are independent, homoscedastic and Gaussian. If these assumptions are poor, parameter inference and model predictions will be correspondingly poor. An essential step in model development is therefore to verify the assumptions and approximations made in the modeling process. Diagnostics play a key role in verifying modeling assumptions. An important advantage of the formal Bayesian approach is that the modeler is required to make the assumptions explicit. Specialized diagnostics can then be developed and applied to test and verify their assumptions. This paper presents a suite of statistical and modeling diagnostics that can be used by environmental modelers to test their modeling calibration assumptions and diagnose model deficiencies. Three major types of diagnostics are presented: Residual Diagnostics Residual diagnostics are used to test whether the assumptions of the residual error model within the likelihood function are compatible with the data. This includes testing for statistical independence, homoscedasticity, unbiasedness, Gaussianity and any distributional assumptions. Parameter Uncertainty and MCMC Diagnostics An important part of Bayesian analysis is assess parameter uncertainty. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful numerical tool for estimating these uncertainties. Diagnostics based on posterior parameter distributions can be used to assess parameter identifiability, interactions and correlations. This provides a very useful tool for detecting and remedying model deficiencies. In addition, numerical diagnostics are

  11. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Guerrero

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere – heat-exchange fluxes – is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM, a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd. A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE, was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue – different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results – the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  12. Parameter estimation for multistage clonal expansion models from cancer incidence data: A practical identifiability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Andrew F; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C

    2017-03-01

    Many cancers are understood to be the product of multiple somatic mutations or other rate-limiting events. Multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models are a class of continuous-time Markov chain models that capture the multi-hit initiation-promotion-malignant-conversion hypothesis of carcinogenesis. These models have been used broadly to investigate the epidemiology of many cancers, assess the impact of carcinogen exposures on cancer risk, and evaluate the potential impact of cancer prevention and control strategies on cancer rates. Structural identifiability (the analysis of the maximum parametric information available for a model given perfectly measured data) of certain MSCE models has been previously investigated. However, structural identifiability is a theoretical property and does not address the limitations of real data. In this study, we use pancreatic cancer as a case study to examine the practical identifiability of the two-, three-, and four-stage clonal expansion models given age-specific cancer incidence data using a numerical profile-likelihood approach. We demonstrate that, in the case of the three- and four-stage models, several parameters that are theoretically structurally identifiable, are, in practice, unidentifiable. This result means that key parameters such as the intermediate cell mutation rates are not individually identifiable from the data and that estimation of those parameters, even if structurally identifiable, will not be stable. We also show that products of these practically unidentifiable parameters are practically identifiable, and, based on this, we propose new reparameterizations of the model hazards that resolve the parameter estimation problems. Our results highlight the importance of identifiability to the interpretation of model parameter estimates.

  13. Bottom-up modeling approach for the quantitative estimation of parameters in pathogen-host interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa eLehnert

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Opportunistic fungal pathogens can cause bloodstream infection and severe sepsis upon entering the blood stream of the host. The early immune response in human blood comprises the elimination of pathogens by antimicrobial peptides and innate immune cells, such as neutrophils or monocytes. Mathematical modeling is a predictive method to examine these complex processes and to quantify the dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. Since model parameters are often not directly accessible from experiment, their estimation is required by calibrating model predictions with experimental data. Depending on the complexity of the mathematical model, parameter estimation can be associated with excessively high computational costs in terms of run time and memory. We apply a strategy for reliable parameter estimation where different modeling approaches with increasing complexity are used that build on one another. This bottom-up modeling approach is applied to an experimental human whole-blood infection assay for Candida albicans. Aiming for the quantification of the relative impact of different routes of the immune response against this human-pathogenic fungus, we start from a non-spatial state-based model (SBM, because this level of model complexity allows estimating textit{a priori} unknown transition rates between various system states by the global optimization method simulated annealing. Building on the non-spatial SBM, an agent-based model (ABM is implemented that incorporates the migration of interacting cells in three-dimensional space. The ABM takes advantage of estimated parameters from the non-spatial SBM, leading to a decreased dimensionality of the parameter space. This space can be scanned using a local optimization approach, i.e. least-squares error estimation based on an adaptive regular grid search, to predict cell migration parameters that are not accessible in experiment.

  14. Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Ne-Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

  15. An Iterative Optimization Algorithm for Lens Distortion Correction Using Two-Parameter Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Santana-Cedrés

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a method for the automatic estimation of two-parameter radial distortion models, considering polynomial as well as division models. The method first detects the longest distorted lines within the image by applying the Hough transform enriched with a radial distortion parameter. From these lines, the first distortion parameter is estimated, then we initialize the second distortion parameter to zero and the two-parameter model is embedded into an iterative nonlinear optimization process to improve the estimation. This optimization aims at reducing the distance from the edge points to the lines, adjusting two distortion parameters as well as the coordinates of the center of distortion. Furthermore, this allows detecting more points belonging to the distorted lines, so that the Hough transform is iteratively repeated to extract a better set of lines until no improvement is achieved. We present some experiments on real images with significant distortion to show the ability of the proposed approach to automatically correct this type of distortion as well as a comparison between the polynomial and division models.

  16. Estimasi Parameter Item dan Latent Class dengan Model Dina untuk Diagnosis Kesulitan Belajar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    - Kusaeri

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Estimation of Item Parameter and Latent Class with DINA Model to Diagnose Learning Difficulties. This study aims to estimate item parameter of diagnostic test developed with DINA model and identify attribute profiles of each test participant. The instrument of this study was diagnostic test using multiple choice format with 4 options. The data were analyzed using Mplus software, R program and ITEMAN. The results show that out of 8 items measuring social arithmetic and comparison, there was on ly one item that had low guessing and slip parameter. The study also found that basic operation and concept in arithmetic and verbal questions were problematic f or most students. Abstrak: Estimasi Parameter Item dan Latent Class dengan Model DINA untuk Diagnosis Kesulitan Belajar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi parameter item dari tes diagnostik yang dikembangkan dengan model DINA dan mengidentifikasi profil atribut setiap peserta tes. Instrumen penelitian ini berupa tes diagnostik berbentuk pilihan ganda dengan 4 pilihan jawaban. Data dianalisis dengan menggunakan software Mplus, program R dan ITEMAN. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dari 8 item yang mengukur materi aritmetika sosial dan perbandingan, hanya ada satu item dengan parameter guessing dan slip rendah. Temuan lain operasi dan konsep dasar dalam aritmetika serta soal bentuk verbal masih menjadi m asalah bagi sebagian besar siswa.

  17. Influence of parameter values on the oscillation sensitivities of two p53-Mdm2 models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuba, Christian E; Valle, Alexander R; Ayala-Charca, Giancarlo; Villota, Elizabeth R; Coronado, Alberto M

    2015-09-01

    Biomolecular networks that present oscillatory behavior are ubiquitous in nature. While some design principles for robust oscillations have been identified, it is not well understood how these oscillations are affected when the kinetic parameters are constantly changing or are not precisely known, as often occurs in cellular environments. Many models of diverse complexity level, for systems such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle or the p53 network, have been proposed. Here we assess the influence of hundreds of different parameter sets on the sensitivities of two configurations of a well-known oscillatory system, the p53 core network. We show that, for both models and all parameter sets, the parameter related to the p53 positive feedback, i.e. self-promotion, is the only one that presents sizeable sensitivities on extrema, periods and delay. Moreover, varying the parameter set values to change the dynamical characteristics of the response is more restricted in the simple model, whereas the complex model shows greater tunability. These results highlight the importance of the presence of specific network patterns, in addition to the role of parameter values, when we want to characterize oscillatory biochemical systems.

  18. Modelling Kepler red giants in eclipsing binaries: calibrating the mixing-length parameter with asteroseismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tanda; Bedding, Timothy R.; Huber, Daniel; Ball, Warrick H.; Stello, Dennis; Murphy, Simon J.; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss

    2018-03-01

    Stellar models rely on a number of free parameters. High-quality observations of eclipsing binary stars observed by Kepler offer a great opportunity to calibrate model parameters for evolved stars. Our study focuses on six Kepler red giants with the goal of calibrating the mixing-length parameter of convection as well as the asteroseismic surface term in models. We introduce a new method to improve the identification of oscillation modes that exploits theoretical frequencies to guide the mode identification (`peak-bagging') stage of the data analysis. Our results indicate that the convective mixing-length parameter (α) is ≈14 per cent larger for red giants than for the Sun, in agreement with recent results from modelling the APOGEE stars. We found that the asteroseismic surface term (i.e. the frequency offset between the observed and predicted modes) correlates with stellar parameters (Teff, log g) and the mixing-length parameter. This frequency offset generally decreases as giants evolve. The two coefficients a-1 and a3 for the inverse and cubic terms that have been used to describe the surface term correction are found to correlate linearly. The effect of the surface term is also seen in the p-g mixed modes; however, established methods for correcting the effect are not able to properly correct the g-dominated modes in late evolved stars.

  19. Parameter identification of process simulation models as a means for knowledge acquisition and technology transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzias, Dimitris F.; Ifanti, Konstantina

    2012-12-01

    Process simulation models are usually empirical, therefore there is an inherent difficulty in serving as carriers for knowledge acquisition and technology transfer, since their parameters have no physical meaning to facilitate verification of the dependence on the production conditions; in such a case, a 'black box' regression model or a neural network might be used to simply connect input-output characteristics. In several cases, scientific/mechanismic models may be proved valid, in which case parameter identification is required to find out the independent/explanatory variables and parameters, which each parameter depends on. This is a difficult task, since the phenomenological level at which each parameter is defined is different. In this paper, we have developed a methodological framework under the form of an algorithmic procedure to solve this problem. The main parts of this procedure are: (i) stratification of relevant knowledge in discrete layers immediately adjacent to the layer that the initial model under investigation belongs to, (ii) design of the ontology corresponding to these layers, (iii) elimination of the less relevant parts of the ontology by thinning, (iv) retrieval of the stronger interrelations between the remaining nodes within the revised ontological network, and (v) parameter identification taking into account the most influential interrelations revealed in (iv). The functionality of this methodology is demonstrated by quoting two representative case examples on wastewater treatment.

  20. Optimal parameters for the Green-Ampt infiltration model under rainfall conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Li

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Green-Ampt (GA model is widely used in hydrologic studies as a simple, physically-based method to estimate infiltration processes. The accuracy of the model for applications under rainfall conditions (as opposed to initially ponded situations has not been studied extensively. We compared calculated rainfall infiltration results for various soils obtained using existing GA parameterizations with those obtained by solving the Richards equation for variably saturated flow. Results provided an overview of GA model performance evaluated by means of a root-meansquare- error-based objective function across a large region in GA parameter space as compared to the Richards equation, which showed a need for seeking optimal GA parameters. Subsequent analysis enabled the identification of optimal GA parameters that provided a close fit with the Richards equation. The optimal parameters were found to substantially outperform the standard theoretical parameters, thus improving the utility and accuracy of the GA model for infiltration simulations under rainfall conditions. A sensitivity analyses indicated that the optimal parameters may change for some rainfall scenarios, but are relatively stable for high-intensity rainfall events.

  1. Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

    2017-04-01

    Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

  2. Optimal Selection of the Sampling Interval for Estimation of Modal Parameters by an ARMA- Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    1993-01-01

    Optimal selection of the sampling interval for estimation of the modal parameters by an ARMA-model for a white noise loaded structure modelled as a single degree of- freedom linear mechanical system is considered. An analytical solution for an optimal uniform sampling interval, which is optimal...

  3. Ditching Investigations of Dynamic Models and Effects of Design Parameters on Ditching Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Lloyd J; Hoffman, Edward L

    1958-01-01

    Data from ditching investigations conducted at the Langley Aeronautical Laboratory with dynamic scale models of various airplanes are presented in the form of tables. The effects of design parameters on the ditching characteristics of airplanes, based on scale-model investigations and on reports of full-scale ditchings, are discussed. Various ditching aids are also discussed as a means of improving ditching behavior.

  4. Kinetics of lipase-catalyzed esterification in organic media : correct model and solvent effects on parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.E.M.; Sjursnes, B.J.; Vakunov, A.V.; Halling, P.J.

    1999-01-01

    The Ping-Pong model (incl. alcohol inhibition) is not the correct model to describe the kinetics of a lipase-catalyzed esterification reaction. The first product, water, is always present at the start of the reaction. This leads to an equation with one extra parameter. This new equation fits our

  5. Parameter subset selection for the dynamic calibration of activated sludge models (ASMs): experience versus systems analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruano, MV; Ribes, J; de Pauw, DJW

    2007-01-01

    In this work we address the issue of parameter subset selection within the scope of activated sludge model calibration. To this end, we evaluate two approaches: (i) systems analysis and (ii) experience-based approach. The evaluation has been carried out using a dynamic model (ASM2d) calibrated...

  6. A parameter study of self-consistent disk models around Herbig AeBe stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, J.; Dominik, C.; de Koter, A.; Dullemond, C.P.; van Boekel, R.; Waters, L.B.F.M.

    2008-01-01

    We present a parameter study of self-consistent models of protoplanetary disks around Herbig AeBe stars. We use the code developed by Dullemond and Dominik, which solves the 2D radiative transfer problem including an iteration for the vertical hydrostatic structure of the disk. This grid of models

  7. Spatial scale effects on model parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty in ungauged basins

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hughes, DA

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The most appropriate scale to use for hydrological modelling depends on the structure of the chosen model, the purpose of the results and the resolution of the available data used to quantify parameter values and provide the climatic forcing data...

  8. Generic NICA-Donnan model parameters for metal-ion binding by humic substances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milne, C.J.; Kinniburgh, D.G.; Riemsdijk, van W.H.; Tipping, E.

    2003-01-01

    A total of 171 datasets of literature and experimental data for metal-ion binding by fulvic and humic acids have been digitized and re-analyzed using the NICA-Donnan model. Generic parameter values have been derived that can be used for modeling in the absence of specific metal-ion binding

  9. Spectral tensor parameters for wind turbine load modeling from forested and agricultural landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chougule, Abhijit S.; Mann, Jakob; Segalini, A.

    2015-01-01

    A velocity spectral tensor model was evaluated from the single-point measurements of wind speed. The model contains three parameters representing the dissipation rate of specific turbulent kinetic energy, a turbulence length scale and the turbulence anisotropy. Sonic anemometer measurements taken...

  10. Modeling and Parameter Identification Involving 3-Hydroxypropionaldehyde Inhibitory Effects in Glycerol Continuous Fermentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaohua Gong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modeling and parameter estimation are critical steps in the optimization of biotechnological processes. In the 1,3-propanediol (1,3-PD production by glycerol fermentation process under anaerobic conditions, 3-hydroxypropionaldehyde (3-HPA accumulation would arouse an irreversible cessation of the fermentation process. Considering 3-HPA inhibitions to cells growth and to activities of enzymes, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe glycerol continuous cultures. Some properties of the above model are discussed. On the basis of the concentrations of extracellular substances, a parameter identification model is established to determine the kinetic parameters in the presented system. Through the penalty function technique combined with an extension of the state space method, an improved genetic algorithm is then constructed to solve the parameter identification model. An illustrative numerical example shows the appropriateness of the proposed model and the validity of optimization algorithm. Since it is difficult to measure the concentrations of intracellular substances, a quantitative robustness analysis method is given to infer whether the model is plausible for the intracellular substances. Numerical results show that the proposed model is of good robustness.

  11. Finite size scaling study of a two parameter percolation model: Constant and correlated growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Bappaditya; Santra, S. B.

    2018-02-01

    A new percolation model of enhanced parameter space with nucleation and growth is developed taking the initial seed concentration ρ and a growth parameter g as two tunable parameters. Percolation transition is determined by the final static configurations of spanning clusters once taking uniform growth probability for all the clusters and then taking a cluster size dependent dynamic growth probability. The uniform growth probability remains constant over time and leads to a constant growth model whereas the dynamically varying growth probability leads to a correlated growth model. In the first case, the growth of a cluster will encounter partial hindrance due to the presence of other clusters whereas in the second case the growth of a larger cluster will be further suppressed in comparison to the growth of smaller clusters. A finite size scaling theory for percolation transition is developed and numerically verified for both the models. The scaling functions are found to depend on both g and ρ. At the critical growth parameter gc, the values of the critical exponents are found to be same as that of the original percolation at all values of ρ for the constant growth model whereas in the case of correlated growth model the scaling behavior deviates from ordinary percolation in the dilute limit of ρ. The constant growth model then belongs to the same universality class of percolation for a wide range of ρ whereas the correlated growth model displays a continuously varying universality class as ρ decreases towards zero.

  12. Mathematical Modelling and Parameter Determination of Reluctance Synchronous Motor with Squirrel Cage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudák, Peter; Hrabovcová, Valéria

    2010-11-01

    The paper provides an analysis of reluctance synchronous motor (RSM) with asymmetrical rotor cage. Its performances during its starting up is investigated. A mathematical model is created on the basis of detailed investigation of model parameters. The RSM starting up by switching it directly across the line was simulated and verified by measurements.

  13. Extraction of battery parameters of the equivalent circuit model using a multi-objective genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jonathan; Zhang, Zheming; Agarwal, Ramesh K.

    2014-02-01

    A simple but reasonably accurate battery model is required for simulating the performance of electrical systems that employ a battery for example an electric vehicle, as well as for investigating their potential as an energy storage device. In this paper, a relatively simple equivalent circuit based model is employed for modeling the performance of a battery. A computer code utilizing a multi-objective genetic algorithm is developed for the purpose of extracting the battery performance parameters. The code is applied to several existing industrial batteries as well as to two recently proposed high performance batteries which are currently in early research and development stage. The results demonstrate that with the optimally extracted performance parameters, the equivalent circuit based battery model can accurately predict the performance of various batteries of different sizes, capacities, and materials. Several test cases demonstrate that the multi-objective genetic algorithm can serve as a robust and reliable tool for extracting the battery performance parameters.

  14. A Central Composite Face-Centered Design for Parameters Estimation of PEM Fuel Cell Electrochemical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled MAMMAR

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new approach based on Experimental of design methodology (DoE is used to estimate the optimal of unknown model parameters proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC. This proposed approach combines the central composite face-centered (CCF and numerical PEMFC electrochemical. Simulation results obtained using electrochemical model help to predict the cell voltage in terms of inlet partial pressures of hydrogen and oxygen, stack temperature, and operating current. The value of the previous model and (CCF design methodology is used for parametric analysis of electrochemical model. Thus it is possible to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter to the simulation accuracy. However this methodology is able to define the exact values of the parameters from the manufacture data. It was tested for the BCS 500-W stack PEM Generator, a stack rated at 500 W, manufactured by American Company BCS Technologies FC.

  15. Numerical Parameter Optimization of the Ignition and Growth Model for HMX Based Plastic Bonded Explosives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambino, James; Tarver, Craig; Springer, H. Keo; White, Bradley; Fried, Laurence

    2017-06-01

    We present a novel method for optimizing parameters of the Ignition and Growth reactive flow (I&G) model for high explosives. The I&G model can yield accurate predictions of experimental observations. However, calibrating the model is a time-consuming task especially with multiple experiments. In this study, we couple the differential evolution global optimization algorithm to simulations of shock initiation experiments in the multi-physics code ALE3D. We develop parameter sets for HMX based explosives LX-07 and LX-10. The optimization finds the I&G model parameters that globally minimize the difference between calculated and experimental shock time of arrival at embedded pressure gauges. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by LLNL under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNS, LLC LLNL-ABS- 724898.

  16. Derivation of potential model for LiAlO2 by simple and effective optimization of model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchihira, H.; Oda, T.; Tanaka, S.

    2009-01-01

    Interatomic potentials of LiAlO 2 were constructed by a simple and effective method. In this method, the model function consists of multiple inverse polynomial functions with an exponential truncation function, and parameters in the potential model can be optimized as a solution of simultaneous linear equations. Potential energies obtained by ab initio calculation are used as fitting targets for model parameter optimization. Lattice constants, elastic properties, defect-formation energy, thermal expansions and the melting point were calculated under the constructed potential models. The results showed good agreement with experimental values and ab initio calculation results, which underscores the validity of the presented method.

  17. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in a biogeochemical model using optimal experimental design methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Joscha; Piwonski, Jaroslaw; Slawig, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The statistical significance of any model-data comparison strongly depends on the quality of the used data and the criterion used to measure the model-to-data misfit. The statistical properties (such as mean values, variances and covariances) of the data should be taken into account by choosing a criterion as, e.g., ordinary, weighted or generalized least squares. Moreover, the criterion can be restricted onto regions or model quantities which are of special interest. This choice influences the quality of the model output (also for not measured quantities) and the results of a parameter estimation or optimization process. We have estimated the parameters of a three-dimensional and time-dependent marine biogeochemical model describing the phosphorus cycle in the ocean. For this purpose, we have developed a statistical model for measurements of phosphate and dissolved organic phosphorus. This statistical model includes variances and correlations varying with time and location of the measurements. We compared the obtained estimations of model output and parameters for different criteria. Another question is if (and which) further measurements would increase the model's quality at all. Using experimental design criteria, the information content of measurements can be quantified. This may refer to the uncertainty in unknown model parameters as well as the uncertainty regarding which model is closer to reality. By (another) optimization, optimal measurement properties such as locations, time instants and quantities to be measured can be identified. We have optimized such properties for additional measurement for the parameter estimation of the marine biogeochemical model. For this purpose, we have quantified the uncertainty in the optimal model parameters and the model output itself regarding the uncertainty in the measurement data using the (Fisher) information matrix. Furthermore, we have calculated the uncertainty reduction by additional measurements depending on time

  18. MOESHA: A genetic algorithm for automatic calibration and estimation of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characterization of uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameters is an essential and often overlooked facet of hydrological modeling. This paper introduces an algorithm called MOESHA that combines input parameter sensitivity analyses with a genetic algorithm calibration routin...

  19. The method for determination of parameters of the phenomenological continual model of soil organic matter transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I. Bartsev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A possible method for experimental determination of parameters of the previously proposed continual mathematical model of soil organic matter transformation is theoretically considered in this paper. The previously proposed by the authors continual model of soil organic matter transformation, based on using the rate of matter transformation as a continual scale of its recalcitrance, describes the transformation process phenomenologically without going into detail of microbiological mechanisms of transformation. Thereby simplicity of the model is achieved. The model is represented in form of one differential equation in first­order partial derivatives, which has an analytical solution in elementary functions. The model equation contains a small number of empirical parameters which generally characterize environmental conditions where the matter transformation process occurs and initial properties of the plant litter. Given the values of these parameters, it is possible to calculate dynamics of soil organic matter stocks and its distribution over transformation rate. In the present study, possible approaches for determination of the model parameters are considered and a simple method of their experimental measurement is proposed. An experiment of an incubation of chemically homogeneous samples in soil and multiple sequential measurement of the sample mass loss with time is proposed. An equation of time dynamics of mass loss of incubated homogeneous sample is derived from the basic assumption of the presented soil organic matter transformation model. Thus, fitting by the least squares method the parameters of sample mass loss curve calculated according the proposed mass loss dynamics equation allows to determine the parameters of the general equation of soil organic transformation model.

  20. Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-09-01

    Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

  1. SAC-SMA a priori parameter differences and their impact on distributed hydrologic model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ziya; Koren, Victor; Reed, Seann; Smith, Michael; Zhang, Yu; Moreda, Fekadu; Cosgrove, Brian

    2012-02-01

    SummaryDeriving a priori gridded parameters is an important step in the development and deployment of an operational distributed hydrologic model. Accurate a priori parameters can reduce the manual calibration effort and/or speed up the automatic calibration process, reduce calibration uncertainty, and provide valuable information at ungauged locations. Underpinned by reasonable parameter data sets, distributed hydrologic modeling can help improve water resource and flood and flash flood forecasting capabilities. Initial efforts at the National Weather Service Office of Hydrologic Development (NWS OHD) to derive a priori gridded Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model parameters for the conterminous United States (CONUS) were based on a relatively coarse resolution soils property database, the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) (Soil Survey Staff, 2011) and on the assumption of uniform land use and land cover. In an effort to improve the parameters, subsequent work was performed to fully incorporate spatially variable land cover information into the parameter derivation process. Following that, finer-scale soils data (the county-level Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) ( Soil Survey Staff, 2011a,b), together with the use of variable land cover data, were used to derive a third set of CONUS, a priori gridded parameters. It is anticipated that the second and third parameter sets, which incorporate more physical data, will be more realistic and consistent. Here, we evaluate whether this is actually the case by intercomparing these three sets of a priori parameters along with their associated hydrologic simulations which were generated by applying the National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) ( Koren et al., 2004) in a continuous fashion with an hourly time step. This model adopts a well-tested conceptual water balance model, SAC-SMA, applied on a regular spatial grid, and links to physically

  2. The influence of joint parameters on normal fault evolution and geometry: a parameter study using analogue modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettermann, Michael; von Hagke, Christoph; Urai, Janos L.

    2017-04-01

    Dilatant faults often form in rocks containing pre-existing joints, but the effects of joints on fault segment linkage and fracture connectivity is not well understood. Studying evolution of dilatancy and influence of fractures on fault development provides insights into geometry of fault zones in brittle rocks and will eventually allow for predicting their subsurface appearance. In an earlier study we recognized the effect of different angles between strike direction of vertical joints and a basement fault on the geometry of a developing fault zone. We now systematically extend the results by varying geometric joint parameters such as joint spacing and vertical extent of the joints and measuring fracture density and connectivity. A reproducibility study shows a small error-range for the measurements, allowing for a confident use of the experimental setup. Analogue models were carried out in a manually driven deformation box (30x28x20 cm) with a 60° dipping pre-defined basement fault and 4.5 cm of displacement. To produce open joints prior to faulting, sheets of paper were mounted in the box to a depth of 5 cm at a spacing of 2.5 cm. We varied the vertical extent of the joints from 5 to 50 mm. Powder was then sieved into the box, embedding the paper almost entirely (column height of 19 cm), and the paper was removed. During deformation we captured structural information by time-lapse photography that allows particle imaging velocimetry analyses (PIV) to detect localized deformation at every increment of displacement. Post-mortem photogrammetry preserves the final 3-dimensional structure of the fault zone. A counterintuitive result is that joint depth is of only minor importance for the evolution of the fault zone. Even very shallow joints form weak areas at which the fault starts to form and propagate. More important is joint spacing. Very large joint spacing leads to faults and secondary fractures that form subparallel to the basement fault. In contrast, small

  3. Estimation of k-ε parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefantzi, Sophia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Ray, Jaideep [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Arunajatesan, Srinivasan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Dechant, Lawrence [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-11-01

    We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of the calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k - ε parameters ( C μ, C ε2 , C ε1 ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal

  4. Local and global inverse modelling strategies to estimate parameters for pesticide leaching from lysimeter studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Gunnar M; Sidorenko, Yury; Gottesbüren, Bernhard

    2015-04-01

    As an option for higher-tier leaching assessment of pesticides in Europe according to FOCUS, pesticide properties can be estimated from lysimeter studies by inversely fitting parameter values (substance half-life DT50 and sorption coefficient to organic matter kom ). The aim of the study was to identify adequate methods for inverse modelling. Model parameters for the PEARL (Pesticide Emission Assessment at Regional and Local scales) model were estimated with different inverse optimisation algorithms - the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), PD_MS2 (PEST Driver Multiple Starting Points 2) and SCEM (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) algorithms. Optimisation of crop factors and hydraulic properties was found to be an ill-posed problem, and all algorithms failed to identify reliable global minima for the hydrological parameters. All algorithms performed equally well in estimating pesticide sorption and degradation parameters. SCEM was in most cases the only algorithm that reliably calculated uncertainties. The most reliable approach for finding the best parameter set in the stepwise approach of optimising evapotranspiration, soil hydrology and pesticide parameters was to run only SCEM or a combined approach with more than one algorithm using the best fit of each step for further processing. PD_MS2 was well suited to a quick parameter search. The linear parameter uncertainty intervals estimated by LM and PD_MS2 were usually larger than by the non-linear method used by SCEM. With the suggested methods, parameter optimisation, together with reliable estimation of uncertainties, is possible also for relatively complex systems. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  5. Artificial Neural Network model for the determination of GSM Rxlevel from atmospheric parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Ofure Eichie

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate received signal level (Rxlevel values are useful for mobile telecommunication network planning. Rxlevel is affected by the dynamics of the atmosphere through which it propagates. Adequate knowledge of the prevailing atmospheric conditions in an environment is essential for proper network planning. However most of the existing GSM received signal determination model are function of distance between point of signal reception and transmitting site thus necessitating the development of a model that involve the use of atmospheric parameters in the determination of received GSM signal level. In this paper, a three stage approach was used in the development of the model using some atmospheric parameters such as atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and dew point. The selected and easily measurable atmospheric parameters were used as input parameters in developing two new models for computing the Rxlevel of GSM signal using a three-step approach. Data acquisition and pre-processing serves as the first stage and formulation of ANN design and the development of parametric model for the Rxlevel using ANN synaptic weights form the second stage of the proposed approach. The third stage involves the use of ANN weight and bias values, and network architecture in the development of the model equation. In evaluating the performance of the proposed models, network parameters were varied and the results obtained using mean squared error (MSE as performance measure showed the developed model with 33 neurons in the hidden layer and tansig activation, function in both the hidden and output layers as the optimal model with least MSE value of 0.056. Thus showing that the developed model has an acceptable accuracy value as demonstrated from comparison of results with actual measured values.

  6. Simultaneous model spin-up and parameter identification with the one-shot method in a climate model example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Kratzenstein

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the Oneshot Optimization strategy introduced by Hamdi and Griewank for the applicability and efficiency to identify parameters in models of the earth's climate system. Parameters of a box model of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation are optimized with respect to the fit of model output to data given by another model of intermediate complexity. Since the model is run into a steady state by a pseudo time-stepping, efficient techniques are necessary to avoid extensive recomputations or storing when using gradient-based local optimization algorithms. The Oneshot approach simultaneously updates state, adjoint and parameter values. For the required partial derivatives, the algorithmic/automatic differentiation tool TAF was used. Numerical results are compared to results obtained by the BFGS-quasi-Newton method.

  7. Trend modelling of wave parameters and application in onboard prediction of ship responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montazeri, Najmeh; Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Jensen, J. Juncher

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a trend analysis for prediction of sea state parameters onboard shipsduring voyages. Given those parameters, a JONSWAP model and also the transfer functions, prediction of wave induced ship responses are thus made. The procedure is tested with full-scale data of an in-service...... container ship. Comparison between predictions and the actual measurements, implies a good agreementin general. This method can be an efficient way to improve decision support on board ships....

  8. Sample Size Requirements for Estimation of Item Parameters in the Multidimensional Graded Response Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengyu eJiang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Likert types of rating scales in which a respondent chooses a response from an ordered set of response options are used to measure a wide variety of psychological, educational, and medical outcome variables. The most appropriate item response theory model for analyzing and scoring these instruments when they provide scores on multiple scales is the multidimensional graded response model (MGRM. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the variables that might affect item parameter recovery for the MGRM. Data were generated based on different sample sizes, test lengths, and scale intercorrelations. Parameter estimates were obtained through the flexiMIRT software. The quality of parameter recovery was assessed by the correlation between true and estimated parameters as well as bias and root- mean-square-error. Results indicated that for the vast majority of cases studied a sample size of N = 500 provided accurate parameter estimates, except for tests with 240 items when 1,000 examinees were necessary to obtain accurate parameter estimates. Increasing sample size beyond N = 1,000 did not increase the accuracy of MGRM parameter estimates.

  9. Adaptive Model Predictive Vibration Control of a Cantilever Beam with Real-Time Parameter Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gergely Takács

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an adaptive-predictive vibration control system using extended Kalman filtering for the joint estimation of system states and model parameters. A fixed-free cantilever beam equipped with piezoceramic actuators serves as a test platform to validate the proposed control strategy. Deflection readings taken at the end of the beam have been used to reconstruct the position and velocity information for a second-order state-space model. In addition to the states, the dynamic system has been augmented by the unknown model parameters: stiffness, damping constant, and a voltage/force conversion constant, characterizing the actuating effect of the piezoceramic transducers. The states and parameters of this augmented system have been estimated in real time, using the hybrid extended Kalman filter. The estimated model parameters have been applied to define the continuous state-space model of the vibrating system, which in turn is discretized for the predictive controller. The model predictive control algorithm generates state predictions and dual-mode quadratic cost prediction matrices based on the updated discrete state-space models. The resulting cost function is then minimized using quadratic programming to find the sequence of optimal but constrained control inputs. The proposed active vibration control system is implemented and evaluated experimentally to investigate the viability of the control method.

  10. A physical model for dimensional reduction and its effects on the observable parameters of the universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaca, Koray; Bayın, Selçuk

    2008-04-01

    We construct a physical model to study the effects of dimensional reduction that might have taken place during the inflationary phase of the universe. The model we propose is a (1 + D)-dimensional ( D > 3), nonsingular, spatially homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann model. We consider dimensional reduction to take place in a stepwise manner and interpret each step as a phase transition. Independent of the details of the process of dimensional reduction, we impose suitable boundary conditions across the transitions and trace the effects of dimensional reduction to the currently observable parameters of the universe. In order to exhibit the cosmological features of the proposed model, we construct a (1 + 4)-dimensional toy model for both closed and open cases of Friedmann geometries. It is shown that in these models the universe makes transition into the lower dimension when the critical length parameter l 4,3, which signals dimensional reduction, reaches the Planck length in D = 3. The numerical models we present in this paper have the capability of making definite predictions about the cosmological parameters of the universe such as the Hubble parameter, age and density.

  11. Estimator of a non-Gaussian parameter in multiplicative log-normal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiyono, Ken; Struzik, Zbigniew R.; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

    2007-10-01

    We study non-Gaussian probability density functions (PDF’s) of multiplicative log-normal models in which the multiplication of Gaussian and log-normally distributed random variables is considered. To describe the PDF of the velocity difference between two points in fully developed turbulent flows, the non-Gaussian PDF model was originally introduced by Castaing [Physica D 46, 177 (1990)]. In practical applications, an experimental PDF is approximated with Castaing’s model by tuning a single non-Gaussian parameter, which corresponds to the logarithmic variance of the log-normally distributed variable in the model. In this paper, we propose an estimator of the non-Gaussian parameter based on the q th order absolute moments. To test the estimator, we introduce two types of stochastic processes within the framework of the multiplicative log-normal model. One is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. The other is a log-normal cascade-type multiplicative process. By analyzing the numerically generated time series, we demonstrate that the estimator can reliably determine the theoretical value of the non-Gaussian parameter. Scale dependence of the non-Gaussian parameter in multiplicative log-normal models is also studied, both analytically and numerically. As an application of the estimator, we demonstrate that non-Gaussian PDF’s observed in the S&P500 index fluctuations are well described by the multiplicative log-normal model.

  12. A simple but accurate procedure for solving the five-parameter model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mares, Oana; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new procedure for extracting the parameters of the one-diode model is proposed. • Only the basic information listed in the datasheet of PV modules are required. • Results demonstrate a simple, robust and accurate procedure. - Abstract: The current–voltage characteristic of a photovoltaic module is typically evaluated by using a model based on the solar cell equivalent circuit. The complexity of the procedure applied for extracting the model parameters depends on data available in manufacture’s datasheet. Since the datasheet is not detailed enough, simplified models have to be used in many cases. This paper proposes a new procedure for extracting the parameters of the one-diode model in standard test conditions, using only the basic data listed by all manufactures in datasheet (short circuit current, open circuit voltage and maximum power point). The procedure is validated by using manufacturers’ data for six commercially crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules. Comparing the computed and measured current–voltage characteristics the determination coefficient is in the range 0.976–0.998. Thus, the proposed procedure represents a feasible tool for solving the five-parameter model applied to crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules. The procedure is described in detail, to guide potential users to derive similar models for other types of photovoltaic modules.

  13. Parameters Investigation of Mathematical Model of Productivity for Automated Line with Availability by DMAIC Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chan Sin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Automated line is widely applied in industry especially for mass production with less variety product. Productivity is one of the important criteria in automated line as well as industry which directly present the outputs and profits. Forecast of productivity in industry accurately in order to achieve the customer demand and the forecast result is calculated by using mathematical model. Mathematical model of productivity with availability for automated line has been introduced to express the productivity in terms of single level of reliability for stations and mechanisms. Since this mathematical model of productivity with availability cannot achieve close enough productivity compared to actual one due to lack of parameters consideration, the enhancement of mathematical model is required to consider and add the loss parameters that is not considered in current model. This paper presents the investigation parameters of productivity losses investigated by using DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control concept and PACE Prioritization Matrix (Priority, Action, Consider, and Eliminate. The investigated parameters are important for further improvement of mathematical model of productivity with availability to develop robust mathematical model of productivity in automated line.

  14. Kinetic parameter estimation model for anaerobic co-digestion of waste activated sludge and microalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eunyoung; Cumberbatch, Jewel; Wang, Meng; Zhang, Qiong

    2017-03-01

    Anaerobic co-digestion has a potential to improve biogas production, but limited kinetic information is available for co-digestion. This study introduced regression-based models to estimate the kinetic parameters for the co-digestion of microalgae and Waste Activated Sludge (WAS). The models were developed using the ratios of co-substrates and the kinetic parameters for the single substrate as indicators. The models were applied to the modified first-order kinetics and Monod model to determine the rate of hydrolysis and methanogenesis for the co-digestion. The results showed that the model using a hyperbola function was better for the estimation of the first-order kinetic coefficients, while the model using inverse tangent function closely estimated the Monod kinetic parameters. The models can be used for estimating kinetic parameters for not only microalgae-WAS co-digestion but also other substrates' co-digestion such as microalgae-swine manure and WAS-aquatic plants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Joint state and parameter estimation for a class of cascade systems: Application to a hemodynamic model

    KAUST Repository

    Zayane, Chadia

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we address a special case of state and parameter estimation, where the system can be put on a cascade form allowing to estimate the state components and the set of unknown parameters separately. Inspired by the nonlinear Balloon hemodynamic model for functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging problem, we propose a hierarchical approach. The system is divided into two subsystems in cascade. The state and input are first estimated from a noisy measured signal using an adaptive observer. The obtained input is then used to estimate the parameters of a linear system using the modulating functions method. Some numerical results are presented to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

  16. Using a scalar parameter to trace dislocation evolution in atomistic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jinbo [ORNL; Zhang, Z F [Shenyang National Laboratory for Materials Science; Osetskiy, Yury N [ORNL; Stoller, Roger E [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    A scalar gamma-parameter is proposed from the Nye tensor. Its maximum value occurs along a dislocation line, either straight or curved, when the coordinate system is purposely chosen. This parameter can be easily obtained from the Nye tensor calculated at each atom in atomistic modeling. Using the gamma-parameter, a fully automated approach is developed to determine core atoms and the Burgers vectors of dislocations simultaneously. The approach is validated by revealing the smallest dislocation loop and by tracing the whole formation process of complicated dislocation networks on the fly.

  17. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  18. Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

    2000-01-01

    and of nutrient status of the host on cereal powdery mildew and rust epidemiological parameters are presented, The use of the ratio of mature lesions rather than the latent period for the estimation of the development rate of the fungus is suggested to allow comparison of a large number of individuals....... It is feasible to assess the pathogen biomass by the sterol contents. The need lo verify by field experiments epidemiological parameters assessed under controlled conditions is pointed out, Finally, the way to include these monocyclic parameters in epidemiological and forecasting models is discussed using...

  19. A Consistent Methodology Based Parameter Estimation for a Lactic Acid Bacteria Fermentation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spann, Robert; Roca, Christophe; Kold, David

    2017-01-01

    Lactic acid bacteria are used in many industrial applications, e.g. as starter cultures in the dairy industry or as probiotics, and research on their cell production is highly required. A first principles kinetic model was developed to describe and understand the biological, physical, and chemical...... mechanisms in a lactic acid bacteria fermentation. We present here a consistent approach for a methodology based parameter estimation for a lactic acid fermentation. In the beginning, just an initial knowledge based guess of parameters was available and an initial parameter estimation of the complete set...

  20. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.