WorldWideScience

Sample records for mitigation aquatic modeling

  1. Multiple mitigation mechanisms: Effects of submerged plants on the toxicity of nine insecticides to aquatic animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogan, William R; Relyea, Rick A

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the processes that regulate contaminant impacts in nature is an increasingly important challenge. For insecticides in surface waters, the ability of aquatic plants to sorb, or bind, hydrophobic compounds has been identified as a primary mechanism by which toxicity can be mitigated (i.e. the sorption-based model). However, recent research shows that submerged plants can also rapidly mitigate the toxicity of the less hydrophobic insecticide malathion via alkaline hydrolysis (i.e. the hydrolysis-based model) driven by increased water pH resulting from photosynthesis. However, it is still unknown how generalizable these mitigation mechanisms are across the wide variety of insecticides applied today, and whether any general rules can be ascertained about which types of chemicals may be mitigated by each mechanism. We quantified the degree to which the submerged plant Elodea canadensis mitigated acute (48-h) toxicity to Daphnia magna using nine commonly applied insecticides spanning three chemical classes (carbamates: aldicarb, carbaryl, carbofuran; organophosphates: malathion, diazinon, chlorpyrifos; pyrethroids: permethrin, bifenthrin, lambda-cyhalothrin). We found that insecticides possessing either high octanol-water partition coefficients (log Kow) values (i.e. pyrethroids) or high susceptibility to alkaline hydrolysis (i.e. carbamates and malathion) were all mitigated to some degree by E. canadensis, while the plant had no effect on insecticides possessing intermediate log Kow values and low susceptibility to hydrolysis (i.e. chlorpyrifos and diazinon). Our results provide the first general insights into which types of insecticides are likely to be mitigated by different mechanisms based on known chemical properties. We suggest that current models and mitigation strategies would be improved by the consideration of both mitigation models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A new mechanism of macrophyte mitigation: how submerged plants reduce malathion's acute toxicity to aquatic animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogan, William R; Relyea, Rick A

    2014-08-01

    A growing body of evidence suggests that aquatic plants can mitigate the toxicity of insecticides to sensitive aquatic animals. The current paradigm is that this ability is driven primarily by insecticide sorption to plant tissues, especially for hydrophobic compounds. However, recent work shows that submerged plants can strongly mitigate the toxicity of the relatively hydrophilic insecticide malathion, despite the fact that this compound exhibits a slow sorption rate to plants. To examine this disparity, we tested the hypothesis that the mitigating effect of submerged plants on malathion's toxicity is driven primarily by the increased water pH from plant photosynthesis causing the hydrolysis of malathion, rather than by sorption. To do this, we compared zooplankton (Daphnia magna) survival across five environmentally relevant malathion concentrations (0, 1, 4, 6, or 36 μg L(-1)) in test containers where we chemically manipulated water pH in the absence of plants or added the submerged plant (Elodea canadensis) but manipulated plant photosynthetic activity via shading or no shading. We discovered that malathion was equally lethal to Daphnia at all concentrations tested when photosynthetically inactive (i.e. shaded) plants were present (pH at time of dosing=7.8) or when pH was chemically decreased (pH=7.7). In contrast, when photosynthetically active (i.e. unshaded) plants were present (pH=9.8) or when pH was chemically increased (pH=9.5), the effects of 4 and 6 μg L(-1) of malathion on Daphnia were mitigated strongly and to an equal degree. These results demonstrate that the mitigating effect of submerged plants on malathion's toxicity can be explained entirely by a mechanism of photosynthesizing plants causing an increase in water pH, resulting in rapid malathion hydrolysis. Our findings suggest that current ecotoxicological models and phytoremediation strategies may be overlooking a critical mechanism for mitigating pesticides.

  3. Effectiveness of emergent and submergent aquatic plants in mitigating a nitrogen-permethrin mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    The current study assessed the effectiveness of varying combinations of two common aquatic vascular macrophytes, parrot feather (Myriophyllum aquaticum) and cattail (Typha latifolia) for mitigating contamination from a mixture of nitrogen (ammonium nitrate) and permethrin. Hydraulically connected we...

  4. Oxidative mitigation of aquatic methane emissions in large Amazonian rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawakuchi, Henrique O; Bastviken, David; Sawakuchi, André O; Ward, Nicholas D; Borges, Clovis D; Tsai, Siu M; Richey, Jeffrey E; Ballester, Maria Victoria R; Krusche, Alex V

    2016-03-01

    The flux of methane (CH4 ) from inland waters to the atmosphere has a profound impact on global atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) levels, and yet, strikingly little is known about the dynamics controlling sources and sinks of CH4 in the aquatic setting. Here, we examine the cycling and flux of CH4 in six large rivers in the Amazon basin, including the Amazon River. Based on stable isotopic mass balances of CH4 , inputs and outputs to the water column were estimated. We determined that ecosystem methane oxidation (MOX) reduced the diffusive flux of CH4 by approximately 28-96% and varied depending on hydrologic regime and general geochemical characteristics of tributaries of the Amazon River. For example, the relative amount of MOX was maximal during high water in black and white water rivers and minimal in clear water rivers during low water. The abundance of genetic markers for methane-oxidizing bacteria (pmoA) was positively correlated with enhanced signals of oxidation, providing independent support for the detected MOX patterns. The results indicate that MOX in large Amazonian rivers can consume from 0.45 to 2.07 Tg CH4 yr(-1) , representing up to 7% of the estimated global soil sink. Nevertheless, climate change and changes in hydrology, for example, due to construction of dams, can alter this balance, influencing CH4 emissions to atmosphere.

  5. Toxicokinetic modeling challenges for aquatic nanotoxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Yu eChen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nanotoxicity has become of increasing concern since the rapid development of metal nanoparticles (NPs. Aquatic nanotoxicity depends on crucial qualitative and quantitative properties of nanomaterials that induce adverse effects on subcellular, tissue, and organ level. The dose-response effects of size-dependent metal NPs, however, are not well investigated in aquatic organisms. In order to determine the uptake and elimination rate constants for metal NPs in the metabolically active/ detoxified pool of tissues, a one-compartmental toxicokinetic model can be applied when subcellular partitioning of metal NPs data would be available. The present review is an attempt to describe the nano-characteristics of toxicokinetics and subcellular partitioning on aquatic organisms with the help of the mechanistic modeling for NP size-dependent physiochemical properties and parameters. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models can provide an effective tool to estimate the time course of NP accumulation in target organs and is useful in quantitative risk assessments. NP accumulation in fish should take into account different effects of different NP sizes to better understand tissue accumulative capacities and dynamics. The size-dependent NP partition coefficient is a crucial parameter that influences tissue accumulation levels in PBPK modeling. Further research is needed to construct the effective systems-level oriented toxicokinetic model that can provide a useful tool to develop quantitatively the robustly approximate relations that convey a better insight into the impacts of environmental metal NPs on subcellular and tissue/organ responses in aquatic organisms.

  6. Everglqades Mercury: Biogeochemistry, Modeling, and Possible Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orem, W. H.

    2015-12-01

    In the 1980s high levels of methylmercury (MeHg) were found in fish and other biota in the Florida Everglades, prompting fish consumption advisories. As part of Everglades restoration efforts Federal and State Agencies initiated a research program to study the underlying causes of the MeHg contamination. As part of this multi-agency effort, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ACME (Aquatic Cycling of Mercury in the Everglades) project to examine the underlying biogeochemical factors controlling MeHg production and bioaccumulation in the ecosystem. Field studies by ACME and others identified the many factors impacting MeHg production in the Everglades. Thes factors include: high mercury deposition, large wetland area with organic-rich anaerobic soil, high sulfate loading in surface runoff, circumneutral pH, and high dissolved organic matter (DOM) content. Florida Department of Environmental Protection efforts that reduced local mercury emissions by 90%, produced only a small reduction in mercury deposition on the Everglades, suggesting that most Hg deposited on the ecosystem originates from distant sources, and beyond the reach of regulators. ACME studies demonstrated that high sulfate loading to the Everglades comes from discharge of canal water originating in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA). The use of sulfur in agriculture and soil oxidation in the EAA have been shown to be the principal sources of the sulfate loading. Sulfate entering the ecosystem drives microbial sulfate reduction and MeHg production, but inhibition of MeHg production by sulfide (a byproduct of microbial sulfate reduction) makes the biogeochemistry complex. Laboratory microcosm and field mesocosm experiments by ACME helped define the complexity of the sulfur/MeHg biogeochemistry, and demonstrated the key role of dissolved organic matter in MeHg production. A conceptual model was developed that relates MeHg production to sulfate loading, DOM, and soil composition. This conceptual

  7. Solar energy development and aquatic ecosystems in the southwestern United States: potential impacts, mitigation, and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grippo, Mark; Hayse, John W; O'Connor, Ben L

    2015-01-01

    The cumulative impacts of utility-scale solar energy facilities on aquatic ecosystems in the Southwestern United States are of concern, considering the many existing regional anthropogenic stressors. We review the potential impacts of solar energy development on aquatic habitat and biota. The greatest potential for impacts is related to the loss, fragmentation, or prolonged drying of ephemeral water bodies and drainage networks resulting from the loss of desert washes within the construction footprint of the facility. Groundwater-dependent aquatic habitat may also be affected by operational groundwater withdrawal in the case of water-intensive solar technologies. Solar panels have also been found to attract aquatic insects and waterbirds, potentially resulting in mortality. Avoiding construction activity near perennial and intermittent surface waters is the primary means of reducing impacts on aquatic habitats, followed by measures to minimize erosion, sedimentation, and contaminant inputs into waterways. Currently, significant data gaps make solar facility impact assessment and mitigation more difficult. Examples include the need for more regional and site-specific studies of surface-groundwater connectivity, more detailed maps of regional stream networks and riparian vegetation corridors, as well as surveys of the aquatic communities inhabiting ephemeral streams. In addition, because they often lack regulatory protection, there is also a need to develop valuation criteria for ephemeral waters based on their ecological and hydrologic function within the landscape. By addressing these research needs, we can achieve the goal of greater reliance on solar energy, while at the same time minimizing impacts on desert ecosystems.

  8. Solar Energy Development and Aquatic Ecosystems in the Southwestern United States: Potential Impacts, Mitigation, and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grippo, Mark A.; Hayse, John; O' Connor, Ben L.

    2015-01-01

    The cumulative impacts of utility-scale solar energy facilities on aquatic ecosystems in the Southwestern United States are of concern, considering the many existing regional anthropogenic stressors. We review the potential impacts of solar energy development on aquatic habitat and biota. The greatest potential for impacts is related to the loss, fragmentation, or prolonged drying of ephemeral water bodies and drainage networks resulting from the loss of desert washes within the construction footprint of the facility. Groundwater-dependent aquatic habitat may also be affected by operational groundwater withdrawal in the case of water-intensive solar technologies. Solar panels have also been found to attract aquatic insects and waterbirds, potentially resulting in mortality. Avoiding construction activity near perennial and intermittent surface waters is the primary means of reducing impacts on aquatic habitats, followed by measures to minimize erosion, sedimentation, and contaminant inputs into waterways. Currently, significant data gaps make solar facility impact assessment and mitigation more difficult. Examples include the need for more regional and site-specific studies of surface–groundwater connectivity, more detailed maps of regional stream networks and riparian vegetation corridors, as well as surveys of the aquatic communities inhabiting ephemeral streams. In addition, because they often lack regulatory protection, there is also a need to develop valuation criteria for ephemeral waters based on their ecological and hydrologic function within the landscape. By addressing these research needs, we can achieve the goal of greater reliance on solar energy, while at the same time minimizing impacts on desert ecosystems.

  9. Soft error mechanisms, modeling and mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Sayil, Selahattin

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces readers to various radiation soft-error mechanisms such as soft delays, radiation induced clock jitter and pulses, and single event (SE) coupling induced effects. In addition to discussing various radiation hardening techniques for combinational logic, the author also describes new mitigation strategies targeting commercial designs. Coverage includes novel soft error mitigation techniques such as the Dynamic Threshold Technique and Soft Error Filtering based on Transmission gate with varied gate and body bias. The discussion also includes modeling of SE crosstalk noise, delay and speed-up effects. Various mitigation strategies to eliminate SE coupling effects are also introduced. Coverage also includes the reliability of low power energy-efficient designs and the impact of leakage power consumption optimizations on soft error robustness. The author presents an analysis of various power optimization techniques, enabling readers to make design choices that reduce static power consumption an...

  10. A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Didde; Hamilton, D. P.; Hipsey, M. R.;

    2012-01-01

    aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv......Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through...... a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we...

  11. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  12. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janssen, Annette B. G.; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality m...

  13. Modeling Aquatic Macroinvertebrate Richness Using Landscape Attributes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia S. Meixler

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We used a rapid, repeatable, and inexpensive geographic information system (GIS approach to predict aquatic macroinvertebrate family richness using the landscape attributes stream gradient, riparian forest cover, and water quality. Stream segments in the Allegheny River basin were classified into eight habitat classes using these three landscape attributes. Biological databases linking macroinvertebrate families with habitat classes were developed using life habits, feeding guilds, and water quality preferences and tolerances for each family. The biological databases provided a link between fauna and habitat enabling estimation of family composition in each habitat class and hence richness predictions for each stream segment. No difference was detected between field collected and modeled predictions of macroinvertebrate families in a paired t-test. Further, predicted stream gradient, riparian forest cover, and total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and suspended sediment classifications matched observed classifications much more often than by chance alone. High gradient streams with forested riparian zones and good water quality were predicted to have the greatest macroinvertebrate family richness and changes in water quality were predicted to have the greatest impact on richness. Our findings indicate that our model can provide meaningful landscape scale macroinvertebrate family richness predictions from widely available data for use in focusing conservation planning efforts.

  14. Human casualties in earthquakes: modelling and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.

    2011-01-01

    Earthquake risk modelling is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation models available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty models in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent earthquakes.

  15. Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program (STARMAP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Colorado State University has received funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program...

  16. Naphthenic acids degradation and toxicity mitigation in tailings wastewater systems and aquatic environments: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannel, Prakash R; Gan, Thian Y

    2012-01-01

    Naphthenic acids, NAs (classical formula C(n)H(2n+z)O(2), where n is the carbon numbers, z represents zero or negative even integers), found in oil sands process waters (OSPWs), are toxic to aquatic environments depending upon several factors such as pH, salinity, molecular size and chemical structure of NAs. Among various available methods, biodegradation seems to be generally the most cost-effective method for decreasing concentrations of NAs (n ≤ 21) and reducing their associated toxicity in OSPW, however the mechanism by which the biodegradation of NAs occurs are poorly understood. Ozonation is superior over biodegradation in decreasing higher molecular weight alkyl branched NAs (preferentially, n ≥ 22, -6 ≥ z ≥ -12) as well as enabling accelerated biodegradation and reducing toxicity. Photolysis (UV at 254 nm) is effective in cleaving higher molecular weight NAs into smaller fragments that will be easier for microorganisms to degrade, whereas photocatalysis can metabolize selective NAs (0 ≥ z ≥ -6) efficiently and minimize their associated toxicity. Phytoremediation is applicable for metabolizing specific NAs (O(2), O(3), O(4), and O(5) species) and minimizing their associated toxicities. Petroleum coke (PC) adsorption is effective in reducing the more structurally complex NAs (preferentially 12 ≥ n ≥ 18 and z = -10, -12) and their toxicity in OSPWs, depending upon the PC content, pH and temperature. Several factors have influence on the degradation of NAs in OSPWs and aquatic environments, which include molecular mass and chemical structure of NAs, sediment structure, temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and bacteria types.

  17. Public Lakes, Private Lakeshore: Modeling Protection of Native Aquatic Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

    2013-07-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221-279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey ( n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners' behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

  18. Public lakes, private lakeshore: modeling protection of native aquatic plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A; Fulton, David C

    2013-07-01

    Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221-279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey (n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners' behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

  19. Modelling bioaccumulation of oil constituents in aquatic species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoop, de L.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.; Schipper, A.M.; Veltman, K.; Laender, de F.; Viaene, K.P.J.; Klok, C.; Hendriks, A.J.

    2013-01-01

    Crude oil poses a risk to marine ecosystems due to its toxicity and tendency to accumulate in biota. The present study evaluated the applicability of the OMEGA model for estimating oil accumulation in aquatic species by comparing model predictions of kinetic rates (absorption and elimination) and bi

  20. Rotation in turbulence of aquatic organisms modeled as particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Variano, Evan; Byron, Margaret; Bellani, Gabriele

    2012-11-01

    We investigate which length and time scales are relevant for determining the rotation of aquatic organisms and their gametes. We are interested in parameter space beyond the Stokes regime, and also the effect of particle shape on rotation. We report experimental measurements that use custom-manufactured particles to model aquatic organisms, which are designed with the necessary optical properties so that we can measure their rotation, simultaneously with the vorticity statistics of the surrounding fluid. Lagrangian timeseries of particles' angular velocity allows investigation of rotational diffusion.

  1. Two-dimensional hydrologic modeling to evaluate aquatic habitat conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela Edwards; Frederica Wood; Michael Little; Peter Vila; Peter Vila

    2006-01-01

    We describe the modeling and mapping procedures used to examine aquatic habitat conditions and habitat suitability of a small river in north- central West Virginia where fish survival and reproduction in specific reaches are poor. The study includes: (1) surveying cross sections of streambed reaches and measuring discharges and corresponding water-surface elevations,...

  2. Ranking of aquatic toxicity of esters modelled by QSAR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Ester; Battaini, Francesca; Gramatica, Paola

    2005-02-01

    Alternative methods like predictions based on Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs) are now accepted to fill data gaps and define priority lists for more expensive and time consuming assessments. A heterogeneous data set of 74 esters was studied for their aquatic toxicity, and available experimental toxicity data on algae, Daphnia and fish were used to develop statistically validated QSAR models, obtained using multiple linear regression (MLR) by the OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) method and GA-VSS (Variable Subset Selection by Genetic Algorithms) to predict missing values. An ESter Aquatic Toxicity INdex (ESATIN) was then obtained by combining, by PCA, experimental and predicted toxicity data, from which model outliers and esters highly influential due to their structure had been eliminated. Finally this integrated aquatic toxicity index, defined by the PC1 score, was modelled using only a few theoretical molecular descriptors. This last QSAR model, statistically validated for its predictive power, could be proposed as a preliminary evaluative method for screening/prioritising esters according to their integrated aquatic toxicity, just starting from their molecular structure.

  3. Aquatic pathways model to predict the fate of phenolic compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaberg, R.L.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.; Mellinger, P.J.

    1983-04-01

    Organic materials released from energy-related activities could affect human health and the environment. To better assess possible impacts, we developed a model to predict the fate of spills or discharges of pollutants into flowing or static bodies of fresh water. A computer code, Aquatic Pathways Model (APM), was written to implement the model. The computer programs use compartmental analysis to simulate aquatic ecosystems. The APM estimates the concentrations of chemicals in fish tissue, water and sediment, and is therefore useful for assessing exposure to humans through aquatic pathways. The APM will consider any aquatic pathway for which the user has transport data. Additionally, APM will estimate transport rates from physical and chemical properties of chemicals between several key compartments. The major pathways considered are biodegradation, fish and sediment uptake, photolysis, and evaporation. The model has been implemented with parameters for distribution of phenols, an important class of compounds found in the water-soluble fractions of coal liquids. Current modeling efforts show that, in comparison with many pesticides and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), the lighter phenolics (the cresols) are not persistent in the environment. The properties of heavier molecular weight phenolics (indanols, naphthols) are not well enough understood at this time to make similar judgements. For the twelve phenolics studied, biodegradation appears to be the major pathway for elimination from aquatic environments. A pond system simulation (using APM) of a spill of solvent refined coal (SRC-II) materials indicates that phenol, cresols, and other single cyclic phenolics are degraded to 16 to 25 percent of their original concentrations within 30 hours. Adsorption of these compounds into sediments and accumulation by fish was minor.

  4. Flood Mitigation of Nyando River Using Duflow Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Joleha

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Duflow surface water hydrodynamic model has been applied using a case study from Nyando catchment in the western part of Kenya in Africa to simulate various extreme flood behaviours and their retardation levels by using selected structural measures as flood mitigation techniques. The objective of this case study was to establish a design flood recommendable for mitigation, and to identify the most cost effective flood mitigation structure. Various design flows are simulated against the different proposed structures hence, the optimal structure can be recommended when economical, social and environmental constraints are considered in the decision making process. The proposed four flood mitigation structures flood plain extension, embankment (dykes, channel by-pass, and green-storage were simulated for 20-year recurrence interval flood to determine their individual responses in storing excess water. The result shows that building a green-storage is the best and optimal structure for flood mitigation.

  5. Dynamic model for tritium transfer in an aquatic food chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melintescu, A; Galeriu, D

    2011-08-01

    Tritium ((3)H) is released from some nuclear facilities in relatively large quantities. It is a ubiquitous isotope because it enters straight into organisms, behaving essentially identically to its stable analogue (hydrogen). Tritium is a key radionuclide in the aquatic environment, in some cases, contributing significantly to the doses received by aquatic, non-human biota and by humans. The updated model presented here is based on more standardized, comprehensive assessments than previously used for the aquatic food chain, including the benthic flora and fauna, with an explicit application to the Danube ecosystem, as well as an extension to the special case of dissolved organic tritium (DOT). The model predicts the organically bound tritium (OBT) in the primary producers (the autotrophs, such as phytoplankton and algae) and in the consumers (the heterotrophs) using their bioenergetics, which involves the investigation of energy expenditure, losses, gains and efficiencies of transformations in the body. The model described in the present study intends to be more specific than a screening-level model, by including a metabolic approach and a description of the direct uptake of DOT in marine phytoplankton and invertebrates. For a better control of tritium transfer into the environment, not only tritiated water must be monitored, but also the other chemical forms and most importantly OBT, in the food chain.

  6. Modelling bioaccumulation of oil constituents in aquatic species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Hoop, Lisette; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Schipper, Aafke M; Veltman, Karin; De Laender, Frederik; Viaene, Karel P J; Klok, Chris; Hendriks, A Jan

    2013-11-15

    Crude oil poses a risk to marine ecosystems due to its toxicity and tendency to accumulate in biota. The present study evaluated the applicability of the OMEGA model for estimating oil accumulation in aquatic species by comparing model predictions of kinetic rates (absorption and elimination) and bioconcentration factors (BCF) with measured values. The model was a better predictor than the means of the measurements for absorption and elimination rate constants, but did not outperform the mean measured BCF. Model estimates and measurements differed less than one order of magnitude for 91%, 80% and 61% of the absorption and elimination rates and BCFs of all oil constituents, respectively. Of the "potentially modifying" factors: exposure duration, biotransformation, molecular mass, and water temperature, the last two tended to influence the performance of the model. Inclusion of more explanatory variables in the bioaccumulation model, like the molecular mass, is expected to improve model performance.

  7. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the data set with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2% with a R2 of 0.959. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally

  8. Mitigation Banking Factsheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    A mitigation bank is an aquatic resource area that has been restored, established, enhanced, or preserved for the purpose of providing compensation for unavoidable impacts to aquatic resources permitted under Section 404

  9. Modelling of Substrate Noise and Mitigation Schemes for UWB Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shen, Ming; Mikkelsen, Jan H.; Larsen, Torben

    2012-01-01

    The last chapter of this first part of the book, chapter seven, is devoted to Modeling of Substrate Noise and Mitigation Schemes for Ultrawideband (UWB) systems, and is written by Ming Shen, Jan H. Mikkelsen, and Torben Larsen from Aalborg University, Denmark. In highly integrated mixed-mode desi...

  10. on the applicability of resources optimization model for mitigating ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    proposed linear model for mitigating free riding in a P2P system. Second, we extended the ... But this is only specific to Bit Torrent architecture, still the problem of ..... symposium on Operating systems design and implementation - OSDI '02: 10 ...

  11. Strategic Material Shortfall Risk Mitigation Optimization Model (OPTIM-SM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    contracts, could be added to the existing mix . Market 40 responses to supply and demand shocks could be modeled more explicitly as could...Model (OPTIM-SM) James S. Thomason, Project Leader D. Sean Barnett James P. Bell Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 4850...Risk Mitigation Optimization Model (OPTIM-SM) James S. Thomason, Project Leader D. Sean Barnett James P. Bell Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz iii

  12. The formation of adipocere in model aquatic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, B H; Notter, S J; Dent, B; Selvalatchmanan, J; Fu, S

    2016-01-01

    An examination of the chemistry of adipocere formation in aquatic systems provides insight into how environmental factors affect the decomposition processes of human remains. Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICPMS) have been employed to monitor the changes to the chemistry of adipocere formed in aquatic environments used to model seawater, river and chlorinated water systems. Seawater was shown to inhibit adipocere formation, and a distinctively different elemental composition was produced in this environment due to the high concentrations of salts. By comparison, river water has been shown to accelerate the formation of adipocere. Chlorinated water appears to significantly enhance adipocere formation, based on a comparison with established fatty acid concentration values. However, a competing reaction to form chlorohydrins in chlorinated water is believed to be responsible for the unusual findings in this environment. The application of the chemical characterization of adipocere to an understanding of how this particular decomposition product forms in different water environments has been demonstrated, and there is potential to utilise this approach to identify the environment in which a body has been immersed.

  13. Snowmelt runoff modeling: Limitations and potential for mitigating water disputes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kult, Jonathan; Choi, Woonsup; Keuser, Anke

    2012-04-01

    SummaryConceptual snowmelt runoff models have proven useful for estimating discharge from remote mountain basins including those spanning the various ranges of the Himalaya. Such models can provide water resource managers with fairly accurate predictions of water availability for operational purposes (e.g. irrigation and hydropower). However, these models have limited ability to address characteristic components of water disputes such as diversions, storage and withholding. Contemporary disputes between India and Pakistan surrounding the snowmelt-derived water resources of the Upper Indus Basin highlight the need for improved water balance accounting methods. We present a research agenda focused on providing refined hydrological contributions to water dispute mitigation efforts.

  14. The development of an aquatic spill model for the White Oak Creek watershed, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, R.O.

    1996-05-01

    This study develops an aquatic spill model applicable to the White Oak Creek watershed draining the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Hazardous, toxic, and radioactive chemicals are handled and stored on the laboratory reservation. An accidental spill into the White Oak Creek watershed could contaminate downstream water supplies if insufficient dilution did not occur. White Oak Creek empties into the Clinch River, which flows into the Tennessee River. Both rivers serve as municipal water supplies. The aquatic spill model provides estimates of the dilution at sequential downstream locations along White Oak creek and the Clinch River after an accidental spill of a liquid containing a radioactively decaying constituent. The location of the spill on the laboratory is arbitrary, while hydrologic conditions range from drought to extreme flood are simulated. The aquatic spill model provides quantitative estimates with which to assess water quality downstream from the site of the accidental spill, allowing an informed decision to be made whether to perform mitigating measures so that the integrity of affected water supplies is not jeopardized.

  15. On the well posedness and further regularity of a diffusive three species aquatic model

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    We consider Upadhay\\'s three species aquatic food chain model, with the inclusion of spatial spread. This is a well established food chain model for the interaction of three given aquatic species. It exhibits rich dynamical behavior, including chaos. We prove the existence of a global weak solution to the diffusive system, followed by existence of local mild and strong solution.

  16. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Annette B.G.; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur; Bolding, Karsten; Bruce, Louise; Bruggeman, Jorn; Couture, Raoul-Marie; Downing, Andrea S.; Alex Elliott, J.; Frassl, Marieke A.; Gal, Gideon; Gerla, Daan J.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hu, Fenjuan; Ives, Stephen C.; Janse, Jan H.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kneis, David; Kong, Xiangshen; Kuiper, Jan J.; Lehmann, Moritz K.; Lemmen, Carsten; Özkundakci, Deniz; Petzoldt, Thomas; Rinke, Karsten; Robson, Barbara J.; Sachse, Rene; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Schmid, Martin; Scholten, Huub; Teurlincx, Sven; Trolle, Dennis; Troost, Tineke A.; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Gerven, Luuk P.A.; Weijerman, Mariska; Wells, Scott A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality mana

  17. Use of the Biotic Ligand Model to predict metal toxicity to aquatic biota in areas of differing geology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.

    2005-01-01

    This work evaluates the use of the biotic ligand model (BLM), an aquatic toxicity model, to predict toxic effects of metals on aquatic biota in areas underlain by different rock types. The chemical composition of water, soil, and sediment is largely derived from the composition of the underlying rock. Geologic source materials control key attributes of water chemistry that affect metal toxicity to aquatic biota, including: 1) potentially toxic elements, 2) alkalinity, 3) total dissolved solids, and 4) soluble major elements, such as Ca and Mg, which contribute to water hardness. Miller (2002) compiled chemical data for water samples collected in watersheds underlain by ten different rock types, and in a mineralized area in western Colorado. He found that each rock type has a unique range of water chemistry. In this study, the ten rock types were grouped into two general categories, igneous and sedimentary. Water collected in watersheds underlain by sedimentary rock has higher mean pH, alkalinity, and calcium concentrations than water collected in watersheds underlain by igneous rock. Water collected in the mineralized area had elevated concentrations of calcium and sulfate in addition to other chemical constituents. Miller's water-chemistry data were used in the BLM (computer program) to determine copper and zinc toxicity to Daphnia magna. Modeling results show that waters from watersheds underlain by different rock types have characteristic ranges of predicted LC 50 values (a measurement of aquatic toxicity) for copper and zinc, with watersheds underlain by igneous rock having lower predicted LC 50 values than watersheds underlain by sedimentary rock. Lower predicted LC 50 values suggest that aquatic biota in watersheds underlain by igneous rock may be more vulnerable to copper and zinc inputs than aquatic biota in watersheds underlain by sedimentary rock. For both copper and zinc, there is a trend of increasing predicted LC 50 values with increasing dissolved

  18. Remote Sensing and Modeling for Improving Operational Aquatic Plant Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, Dave

    2016-01-01

    The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California’s water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

  19. Workplace violence mitigation: the three-year model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Justin

    2016-01-01

    In presenting a three-year model for workplace violence mitigation in this article, the author sees it as providing a way to gauge the maturity of the program. This model, he says, functions similarly to a high performing security awareness program where certain themes need to be repeated on a routine basis just so situational awareness does not fall by the wayside. While the program outlined here is not a guaranteed formula for success, it is a framework to work within to ensure you have a roadmap upon which to build success.

  20. Next generation framework for aquatic modeling of the Earth System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Vörösmarty

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Earth System model development is becoming an increasingly complex task. As scientists attempt to represent the physical and bio-geochemical processes and various feedback mechanisms in unprecedented detail, the models themselves are becoming increasingly complex. At the same time, the complexity of the surrounding IT infrastructure is growing as well. Earth System models must manage a vast amount of data in heterogeneous computing environments. Numerous development efforts are on the way to ease that burden and offer model development platforms that reduce IT challenges and allow scientists to focus on their science. While these new modeling frameworks (e.g. FMS, ESMF, CCA, OpenMI do provide solutions to many IT challenges (performing input/output, managing space and time, establishing model coupling, etc., they are still considerably complex and often have steep learning curves.

    The Next generation Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System (NextFrAMES, a revised version of FrAMES have numerous similarities to those developed by other teams, but represents a novel model development paradigm. NextFrAMES is built around a modeling XML that lets modelers to express the overall model structure and provides an API for dynamically linked plugins to represent the processes. The model XML is executed by the NextFrAMES run-time engine that parses the model definition, loads the module plugins, performs the model I/O and executes the model calculations. NextFrAMES has a minimalistic view representing spatial domains and treats every domain (regardless of its layout such as grid, network tree, individual points, polygons, etc. as vector of objects. NextFrAMES performs computations on multiple domains and interactions between different spatial domains are carried out through couplers. NextFrAMES allows processes to operate at different frequencies by providing rudimentary aggregation and disaggregation facilities.

    NextFrAMES was

  1. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  2. Extensions in adaptive model tracking with mitigated passivity conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Itzhak BARKANA

    2013-01-01

    Feasibility of nonlinear and adaptive control methodologies in multivariable linear timeinvariant systems with state space realization {A,B,C} has apparently been limited by the standard strict passivity (or positive realness) conditions that imply that the product CB must be positive definite symmetric.More recently the symmetry condition has been mitigated,requiring instead that the not necessarily symmetric matrix CB be diagonalizable and with positive real eigenvalues.However,although the mitigated conditions are useful in proving pure stabilizability with Adaptive Controllers,the Model Tracking question has remained open and counterexamples seem to demonstrate total divergence of standard model reference adaptive controllers when the regular passivity conditions are not fully satisfied.Therefore,this paper further extends the previous results,showing that the new passivity conditions do guarantee stability with adaptive model tracking.Examples show how the new conditions solve the case of flexible structures with unknown parameters when perfect collocation is not possible.Also,the so-called counterexamples become simple,well-behaved,examples.

  3. A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altay, Nezih; Prasad, Sameer; Tata, Jasmine

    2013-07-01

    The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non-linear trade-offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

  4. Modeling radio communication blackout and blackout mitigation in hypersonic vehicles

    CERN Document Server

    Kundrapu, Madhusudhan; Beckwith, Kristian; Stoltz, Peter; Shashurin, Alexey; Keidar, Michael

    2014-01-01

    A procedure for the modeling and analysis of radio communication blackout of hypersonic vehicles is presented. A weakly ionized plasma generated around the surface of a hypersonic reentry vehicle traveling at Mach 23 was simulated using full Navier-Stokes equations in multi-species single fluid form. A seven species air chemistry model is used to compute the individual species densities in air including ionization - plasma densities are compared with experiment. The electromagnetic wave's interaction with the plasma layer is modeled using multi-fluid equations for fluid transport and full Maxwell's equations for the electromagnetic fields. The multi-fluid solver is verified for a whistler wave propagating through a slab. First principles radio communication blackout over a hypersonic vehicle is demonstrated along with a simple blackout mitigation scheme using a magnetic window.

  5. Kinetic modelling of cadmium and lead removal by aquatic mosses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. E. Martins

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Because biosorption is a low cost and effective method for treating metal-bearing wastewaters, understanding the process kinetics is relevant for design purposes. In the present study, the performance of the aquatic moss Fontinalis antipyretica for removing cadmium and lead from simulated wastewaters has been evaluated. Five kinetic models (first-order, pseudo-first-order, Elovich, modified Ritchie second-order and pseudo-second-order were fitted to the experimental data and compared. Previously, the effect of parameters such as the initial solution pH, contact time, and initial metal ion concentration on biosorption was investigated. The initial pH of the solution was found to have an optimum value in the range of 4.0-6.0. The equilibrium sorption capacity of cadmium and lead by Fontinalis antipyretica increased with the initial metal concentration. For an initial metal concentration of 10 mg L-1, the uptake capacity of the moss, at equilibrium, is the same for both metals (4.8 mg g-1. Nevertheless, when the initial concentration increases up to 100 mg L-1, the uptake of Pb(II was higher than 78%. The pseudo-second order biosorption kinetics provided the better correlation with the experimental data (R² ≥ 0.999.

  6. Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

    2017-08-01

    As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

  7. Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: A framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hamilton, David P.; Hanson, Paul C.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Coletti, Janaine Z.; Read, Jordan S.; Ibelings, Bas W.; Valesini, Fiona J.; Brookes, Justin D.

    2015-09-01

    Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchment management, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientists and policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are required that are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiple stressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this challenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observation networks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions. The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensor networks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model is assessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinary nature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and integrate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to model assessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore the theory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry, and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

  8. Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hamilton, David P.; Hanson, Paul C.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Coletti, Janaine Z; Read, Jordan S.; Ibelings, Bas W; Valensini, Fiona J; Brookes, Justin D

    2015-01-01

    Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiplestressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this chal-lenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observationnetworks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions.The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensornetworks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model isassessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinarynature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and inte-grate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to modelassessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore thetheory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry,and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

  9. Modelling the winter distribution of a rare and endangered migrant, the Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walther, Bruno A; Schäffer, Norbert; van Niekerk, Adriaan

    2007-01-01

    . Such model predictions may be useful guidelines to focus further field research on the Aquatic Warbler. Given the excellent model predictions in this study, this novel technique may prove useful to model the distribution of other rare and endangered species, thus providing a means to guide future survey......The Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is one of the most threatened Western Palearctic passerine species, classified as globally Vulnerable. With its breeding grounds relatively secure, a clear need remains for the monitoring and protection of the migration and wintering grounds of this rare...... and endangered migrant. Recent research has shown that the Aquatic Warbler migrates through northwest Africa in autumn and spring. The wintering grounds are apparently limited to wetlands of sub-Saharan West Africa, with records from only about 20 localities in Mauritania, Mali, Senegal and Ghana. Given the lack...

  10. Standards and Guidelines for Numerical Models for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, V.; Gonzalez, F.; Kanoglu, U.; Yalciner, A.; Synolakis, C. E.

    2006-12-01

    An increased number of nations around the workd need to develop tsunami mitigation plans which invariably involve inundation maps for warning guidance and evacuation planning. There is the risk that inundation maps may be produced with older or untested methodology, as there are currently no standards for modeling tools. In the aftermath of the 2004 megatsunami, some models were used to model inundation for Cascadia events with results much larger than sediment records and existing state-of-the-art studies suggest leading to confusion among emergency management. Incorrectly assessing tsunami impact is hazardous, as recent events in 2006 in Tonga, Kythira, Greece and Central Java have suggested (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006). To calculate tsunami currents, forces and runup on coastal structures, and inundation of coastlines one must calculate the evolution of the tsunami wave from the deep ocean to its target site, numerically. No matter what the numerical model, validation (the process of ensuring that the model solves the parent equations of motion accurately) and verification (the process of ensuring that the model used represents geophysical reality appropriately) both are an essential. Validation ensures that the model performs well in a wide range of circumstances and is accomplished through comparison with analytical solutions. Verification ensures that the computational code performs well over a range of geophysical problems. A few analytic solutions have been validated themselves with laboratory data. Even fewer existing numerical models have been both validated with the analytical solutions and verified with both laboratory measurements and field measurements, thus establishing a gold standard for numerical codes for inundation mapping. While there is in principle no absolute certainty that a numerical code that has performed well in all the benchmark tests will also produce correct inundation predictions with any given source motions, validated codes

  11. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  12. Plastic as a Carrier of POPs to Aquatic Organisms: A Model Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelmans, A.A.; Besseling, E.; Wegner, A.; Foekema, E.M.

    2013-01-01

    It has been hypothesized that persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in microplastic may pose a risk to aquatic organisms. Here we develop and analyze a conceptual model that simulates the effects of plastic on bioaccumulation of POPs. The model accounts for dilution of exposure concentration by sorpt

  13. Integration of geographic information systems and logistic multiple regression for aquatic macrophyte modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narumalani, S. [Nebraska Univ., Lincoln, NE (United States). Dept. of Geography; Jensen, J.R.; Althausen, J.D.; Burkhalter, S. [South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Geography; Mackey, H.E. Jr. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Since aquatic macrophytes have an important influence on the physical and chemical processes of an ecosystem while simultaneously affecting human activity, it is imperative that they be inventoried and managed wisely. However, mapping wetlands can be a major challenge because they are found in diverse geographic areas ranging from small tributary streams, to shrub or scrub and marsh communities, to open water lacustrian environments. In addition, the type and spatial distribution of wetlands can change dramatically from season to season, especially when nonpersistent species are present. This research, focuses on developing a model for predicting the future growth and distribution of aquatic macrophytes. This model will use a geographic information system (GIS) to analyze some of the biophysical variables that affect aquatic macrophyte growth and distribution. The data will provide scientists information on the future spatial growth and distribution of aquatic macrophytes. This study focuses on the Savannah River Site Par Pond (1,000 ha) and L Lake (400 ha) these are two cooling ponds that have received thermal effluent from nuclear reactor operations. Par Pond was constructed in 1958, and natural invasion of wetland has occurred over its 35-year history, with much of the shoreline having developed extensive beds of persistent and non-persistent aquatic macrophytes.

  14. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently pu...

  15. AquaEnv: an aquatic acid–base modelling environment in R

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmann, A.F.; Soetaert, K.E.R.; Middelburg, J.J.; Meysman, F.J.R.

    2010-01-01

    AquaEnv is an integrated software package for aquatic chemical model generation focused on ocean acidification and antropogenic CO2 uptake. However, the package is not restricted to the carbon cycle or the oceans: it calculates, converts, and visualizes information necessary to describe pH, related

  16. Model of an International Environmental Agreement among Asymmetric Nations applied to Debris Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Singer, Michael J

    2010-01-01

    We investigate how ideas from the International Environmental Agreement (IEA) literature can be applied to the problem of space debris mitigation. The problem of space debris is similar to other international environmental problems in that there is a potential for a tragedy of the commons effect--individual nations bear all the cost of their mitigation measures but share only a fraction of the benefit. Consequently, nations have a tendency to underinvest in mitigation. Coalitions of nations, brought together by IEAs, have the potential to lessen the tragedy of the commons effect by pooling the costs and benefits of mitigation. This work brings together two recent modeling advances: i) a game theoretic model for studying the potential gains from IEA cooperation between nations with asymmetric costs and benefits, ii) an orbital debris model that gives the societal cost that specific actions, such as failing to deorbit an inactive satellite, have on the environment. We combine these two models with empirical lau...

  17. Hyperspectral Aquatic Radiative Transfer Modeling Using a High-Performance Cluster Computing Based Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fillippi, Anthony [Texas A& M University; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Naughton, III, Thomas J [ORNL; King, Amy L [ORNL; Scott, Stephen L [ORNL; Guneralp, Inci [Texas A& M University

    2012-01-01

    For aquatic studies, radiative transfer (RT) modeling can be used to compute hyperspectral above-surface remote sensing reflectance that can be utilized for inverse model development. Inverse models can provide bathymetry and inherent- and bottom-optical property estimation. Because measured oceanic field/organic datasets are often spatio-temporally sparse, synthetic data generation is useful in yielding sufficiently large datasets for inversion model development; however, these forward-modeled data are computationally expensive and time-consuming to generate. This study establishes the magnitude of wall-clock-time savings achieved for performing large, aquatic RT batch-runs using parallel computing versus a sequential approach. Given 2,600 simulations and identical compute-node characteristics, sequential architecture required {approx}100 hours until termination, whereas a parallel approach required only {approx}2.5 hours (42 compute nodes) - a 40x speed-up. Tools developed for this parallel execution are discussed.

  18. Hyperspectral Aquatic Radiative Transfer Modeling Using a High-Performance Cluster Computing-Based Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Filippi, Anthony M [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Naughton, III, Thomas J [ORNL; King, Amy L [ORNL; Scott, Stephen L [ORNL; Guneralp, Inci [Texas A& M University

    2012-01-01

    Abstract For aquatic studies, radiative transfer (RT) modeling can be used to compute hyperspectral above-surface remote sensing reflectance that can be utilized for inverse model development. Inverse models can provide bathymetry and inherent-and bottom-optical property estimation. Because measured oceanic field/organic datasets are often spatio-temporally sparse, synthetic data generation is useful in yielding sufficiently large datasets for inversion model development; however, these forward-modeled data are computationally expensive and time-consuming to generate. This study establishes the magnitude of wall-clock-time savings achieved for performing large, aquatic RT batch-runs using parallel computing versus a sequential approach. Given 2,600 simulations and identical compute-node characteristics, sequential architecture required ~100 hours until termination, whereas a parallel approach required only ~2.5 hours (42 compute nodes) a 40x speed-up. Tools developed for this parallel execution are discussed.

  19. Ecotoxicogenomic approaches for understanding molecular mechanisms of environmental chemical toxicity using aquatic invertebrate, Daphnia model organism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyo Jeong; Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Seo, Young Rok

    2015-05-29

    Due to the rapid advent in genomics technologies and attention to ecological risk assessment, the term "ecotoxicogenomics" has recently emerged to describe integration of omics studies (i.e., transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics) into ecotoxicological fields. Ecotoxicogenomics is defined as study of an entire set of genes or proteins expression in ecological organisms to provide insight on environmental toxicity, offering benefit in ecological risk assessment. Indeed, Daphnia is a model species to study aquatic environmental toxicity designated in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's toxicity test guideline and to investigate expression patterns using ecotoxicology-oriented genomics tools. Our main purpose is to demonstrate the potential utility of gene expression profiling in ecotoxicology by identifying novel biomarkers and relevant modes of toxicity in Daphnia magna. These approaches enable us to address adverse phenotypic outcomes linked to particular gene function(s) and mechanistic understanding of aquatic ecotoxicology as well as exploration of useful biomarkers. Furthermore, key challenges that currently face aquatic ecotoxicology (e.g., predicting toxicant responses among a broad spectrum of phytogenetic groups, predicting impact of temporal exposure on toxicant responses) necessitate the parallel use of other model organisms, both aquatic and terrestrial. By investigating gene expression profiling in an environmentally important organism, this provides viable support for the utility of ecotoxicogenomics.

  20. Ecotoxicogenomic Approaches for Understanding Molecular Mechanisms of Environmental Chemical Toxicity Using Aquatic Invertebrate, Daphnia Model Organism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyo Jeong Kim

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to the rapid advent in genomics technologies and attention to ecological risk assessment, the term “ecotoxicogenomics” has recently emerged to describe integration of omics studies (i.e., transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics into ecotoxicological fields. Ecotoxicogenomics is defined as study of an entire set of genes or proteins expression in ecological organisms to provide insight on environmental toxicity, offering benefit in ecological risk assessment. Indeed, Daphnia is a model species to study aquatic environmental toxicity designated in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s toxicity test guideline and to investigate expression patterns using ecotoxicology-oriented genomics tools. Our main purpose is to demonstrate the potential utility of gene expression profiling in ecotoxicology by identifying novel biomarkers and relevant modes of toxicity in Daphnia magna. These approaches enable us to address adverse phenotypic outcomes linked to particular gene function(s and mechanistic understanding of aquatic ecotoxicology as well as exploration of useful biomarkers. Furthermore, key challenges that currently face aquatic ecotoxicology (e.g., predicting toxicant responses among a broad spectrum of phytogenetic groups, predicting impact of temporal exposure on toxicant responses necessitate the parallel use of other model organisms, both aquatic and terrestrial. By investigating gene expression profiling in an environmentally important organism, this provides viable support for the utility of ecotoxicogenomics.

  1. Modeling the inherent optical properties of aquatic particles using an irregular hexahedral ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guanglang; Sun, Bingqiang; Brooks, Sarah D.; Yang, Ping; Kattawar, George W.; Zhang, Xiaodong

    2017-04-01

    A statistical approach in defining particle morphology in terms of an ensemble of hexahedra of distorted shapes is employed for modeling the Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) of aquatic particles. The approach is inspired by the rich variability in shapes of real aquatic particles that cannot be represented by one particular shape. Two methods, the Invariant Imbedding T-matrix (II-TM) and Physical Geometric Optics Hybrid (PGOH) method, are combined to simulate the IOPs for aquatic particles of sizes ranging from the Rayleigh scattering to geometric optics regimes. Nonspherical effects on the IOPs are examined by comparing the results with predictions based on the Lorenz-Mie theory to explore the limitations of assuming the particles to be spherical. We pay special attention to backscattering-related and polarimetric scattering properties, particularly the backscattering ratio, Gordon parameter, backscattering volume scattering function and the degree of linear polarization. The simulated IOPs are compared with the in-situ measurements to assess the feasibility of using a hexahedral ensemble in modeling the IOPs of the aquatic particles.

  2. Ecotoxicogenomic Approaches for Understanding Molecular Mechanisms of Environmental Chemical Toxicity Using Aquatic Invertebrate, Daphnia Model Organism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyo Jeong; Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Seo, Young Rok

    2015-01-01

    Due to the rapid advent in genomics technologies and attention to ecological risk assessment, the term “ecotoxicogenomics” has recently emerged to describe integration of omics studies (i.e., transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics) into ecotoxicological fields. Ecotoxicogenomics is defined as study of an entire set of genes or proteins expression in ecological organisms to provide insight on environmental toxicity, offering benefit in ecological risk assessment. Indeed, Daphnia is a model species to study aquatic environmental toxicity designated in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s toxicity test guideline and to investigate expression patterns using ecotoxicology-oriented genomics tools. Our main purpose is to demonstrate the potential utility of gene expression profiling in ecotoxicology by identifying novel biomarkers and relevant modes of toxicity in Daphnia magna. These approaches enable us to address adverse phenotypic outcomes linked to particular gene function(s) and mechanistic understanding of aquatic ecotoxicology as well as exploration of useful biomarkers. Furthermore, key challenges that currently face aquatic ecotoxicology (e.g., predicting toxicant responses among a broad spectrum of phytogenetic groups, predicting impact of temporal exposure on toxicant responses) necessitate the parallel use of other model organisms, both aquatic and terrestrial. By investigating gene expression profiling in an environmentally important organism, this provides viable support for the utility of ecotoxicogenomics. PMID:26035755

  3. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors-abstract

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset contain...

  4. A comparative study of the modeled effects of atrazine on aquatic plant communities in midwestern streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Shyam K; Bartell, Steven M; Brain, Richard A

    2015-11-01

    Potential effects of atrazine on the nontarget aquatic plants characteristic of lower-order streams in the Midwestern United States were previously assessed using the Comprehensive Aquatic System Model (CASMATZ ). Another similar bioenergetics-based, mechanistic model, AQUATOX, was examined in the present study, with 3 objectives: 1) to develop an AQUATOX model simulation similar to the CASMATZ model reference simulation in describing temporal patterns of biomass production by modeled plant populations, 2) to examine the implications of the different approaches used by the models in deriving plant community-based levels of concern (LOCs) for atrazine, and 3) to determine the feasibility of implementing alternative ecological models to assess ecological impacts of atrazine on lower-order Midwestern streams. The results of the present comparative modeling study demonstrated that a similar reference simulation to that from the CASMATZ model could be developed using the AQUATOX model. It was also determined that development of LOCs and identification of streams with exposures in excess of the LOCs were feasible with the AQUATOX model. Compared with the CASMATZ model results, however, the AQUATOX model consistently produced higher estimates of LOCs and generated non-monotonic variations of atrazine effects with increasing exposures. The results of the present study suggest an opportunity for harmonizing the treatments of toxicity and toxicity parameter estimation in the CASMATZ and the AQUATOX models. Both models appear useful in characterizing the potential impacts of atrazine on nontarget aquatic plant populations in lower-order Midwestern streams. The present model comparison also suggests that, with appropriate parameterization, these process-based models can be used to assess the potential effects of other xenobiotics on stream ecosystems.

  5. EcoCasting: Using NetLogo models of aquatic ecosystems to teach scientific inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzby, C. K.; Jona, K.

    2010-12-01

    The EcoCasting project from the Office of STEM Education Partnerships (OSEP) at Northwestern University has developed a computer model-based curriculum for high school environmental science classes to study complexity in aquatic ecosystems. EcoCasting aims to deliver cutting edge scientific research on bioaccumulation in invaded Great Lakes food webs to high school classes. Scientists and environmental engineers at Northwestern are investigating unusual bioaccumulation patterns in invaded food webs of the Great Lakes. High school students are exploring this authentic data to understand what is causing the anomalies in the data. Students use a series of NetLogo agent-based models of an aquatic ecosystem to study how toxins accumulate in the food web. Using these models, students learn about predator-prey relationships, bioaccumulation, and invasive species. Students are confronted with contradictory data collected by scientists and investigate alternative food web mechanisms at work. By studying the individual variables, students learn common scientific principles. When multiple variables are combined in a unifying model, students learn that the interactions lead to unexpected outcomes. Students learn about the complexity of the ecosystem and gain proficiency interpreting computer models and scientific data collection in this curriculum. Model of aquatic food chain

  6. Modelling mitigation options to reduce diffuse nitrogen water pollution from agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouraoui, Fayçal; Grizzetti, Bruna

    2014-01-15

    Agriculture is responsible for large scale water quality degradation and is estimated to contribute around 55% of the nitrogen entering the European Seas. The key policy instrument for protecting inland, transitional and coastal water resources is the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Reducing nutrient losses from agriculture is crucial to the successful implementation of the WFD. There are several mitigation measures that can be implemented to reduce nitrogen losses from agricultural areas to surface and ground waters. For the selection of appropriate measures, models are useful for quantifying the expected impacts and the associated costs. In this article we review some of the models used in Europe to assess the effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation measures, ranging from fertilizer management to the construction of riparian areas and wetlands. We highlight how the complexity of models is correlated with the type of scenarios that can be tested, with conceptual models mostly used to evaluate the impact of reduced fertilizer application, and the physically-based models used to evaluate the timing and location of mitigation options and the response times. We underline the importance of considering the lag time between the implementation of measures and effects on water quality. Models can be effective tools for targeting mitigation measures (identifying critical areas and timing), for evaluating their cost effectiveness, for taking into consideration pollution swapping and considering potential trade-offs in contrasting environmental objectives. Models are also useful for involving stakeholders during the development of catchments mitigation plans, increasing their acceptability.

  7. [Aquatic ecosystem modelling approach: temperature and water quality models applied to Oualidia and Nador lagoons].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idrissi, J Lakhdar; Orbi, A; Hilmi, K; Zidane, F; Moncef, M

    2005-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop an aquatic ecosystem and apply it on Moroccan lagoon systems. This model will keep us abreast of the yearly development of the main parameters that characterize these ecosystems while integrating all the data that have so far been acquired. Within this framework, a simulation model of the thermal system and a model of the water quality have been elaborated. These models, which have been simulated on the lagoon of Oualidia (North of Morocco) and validated on the lagoon of Nador (North West Mediterranean), permit to foresee the cycles of temperature of the surface and the parameters of the water quality (dissolved oxygen and biomass phytoplankton) by using meteorological information, specific features and in situ measurements in the studied sites. The elaborated model, called Zero-Dimensional, simulates the average conduct of the site during the time of variable states that are representatives of the studied ecosystem. This model will provide answers for the studied phenomena and is a work tool adequate for numerical simplicity.

  8. Aquatic Pathways Model to predict the fate of phenolic compounds. Appendixes A through D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaberg, R.L.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.; Mellinger, P.L.

    1983-04-01

    Organic materials released from energy-related activities could affect human health and the environment. We have developed a model to predict the fate of spills or discharges of pollutants into flowing or static bodies of fresh water. A computer code, Aquatic Pathways Model (APM), was written to implement the model. The APM estimates the concentrations of chemicals in fish tissue, water and sediment, and is therefore useful for assessing exposure to humans through aquatic pathways. The major pathways considered are biodegradation, fish and sediment uptake, photolysis, and evaporation. The model has been implemented with parameters for the distribution of phenols, an important class of compounds found in the water-soluble fractions of coal liquids. The model was developed to estimate the fate of liquids derived from coal. Current modeling efforts show that, in comparison with many pesticides and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), the lighter phenolics (the cresols) are not persistent in the environment. For the twelve phenolics studied, biodegradation appears to be the major pathway for elimination from aquatic environments. A pond system simulation of a spill of solvent-refined coal (SRC-II) materials indicates that phenol, cresols, and other single cyclic phenolics are degraded to 16 to 25 percent of their original concentrations within 30 hours. Adsorption of these compounds into sediments and accumulation by fish was minor. Results of a simulated spill of a coal liquid (SRC-II) into a pond show that APM predicted the allocation of 12 phenolic components among six compartments at 30 hours after a small spill. The simulation indicated that most of the introduced phenolic compounds were biodegraded. The phenolics remaining in the aquatic system partitioned according to their molecular weight and structure. A substantial amount was predicted to remain in the water, with less than 0.01% distributed in sediment or fish.

  9. A log-normal distribution model for the molecular weight of aquatic fulvic acids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabaniss, S.E.; Zhou, Q.; Maurice, P.A.; Chin, Y.-P.; Aiken, G.R.

    2000-01-01

    The molecular weight of humic substances influences their proton and metal binding, organic pollutant partitioning, adsorption onto minerals and activated carbon, and behavior during water treatment. We propose a lognormal model for the molecular weight distribution in aquatic fulvic acids to provide a conceptual framework for studying these size effects. The normal curve mean and standard deviation are readily calculated from measured M(n) and M(w) and vary from 2.7 to 3 for the means and from 0.28 to 0.37 for the standard deviations for typical aquatic fulvic acids. The model is consistent with several types of molecular weight data, including the shapes of high- pressure size-exclusion chromatography (HP-SEC) peaks. Applications of the model to electrostatic interactions, pollutant solubilization, and adsorption are explored in illustrative calculations.The molecular weight of humic substances influences their proton and metal binding, organic pollutant partitioning, adsorption onto minerals and activated carbon, and behavior during water treatment. We propose a log-normal model for the molecular weight distribution in aquatic fulvic acids to provide a conceptual framework for studying these size effects. The normal curve mean and standard deviation are readily calculated from measured Mn and Mw and vary from 2.7 to 3 for the means and from 0.28 to 0.37 for the standard deviations for typical aquatic fulvic acids. The model is consistent with several type's of molecular weight data, including the shapes of high-pressure size-exclusion chromatography (HP-SEC) peaks. Applications of the model to electrostatic interactions, pollutant solubilization, and adsorption are explored in illustrative calculations.

  10. Modeled and Measured Underwater Sound Isopleths and Implications for Marine Mammal Mitigation in Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Lisanne A M; Streever, Bill

    2016-01-01

    Before operating air guns in Alaska, industry is usually required to model underwater sound isopleths, some of which have implications for the mitigation and monitoring of potential marine mammal impacts. Field measurements are often required to confirm or revise model predictions. We compared modeled and measured air gun sound isopleths from 2006 to 2012 and found poor agreement. Natural variability in the marine environment, application of precautionary correction factors, and data interpretation in the generation of circular isopleths all contributed to the observed poor agreement. A broader understanding of the realities of modeled and measured underwater sound isopleths will contribute to improved mitigation practices.

  11. Aquatic blues: modeling depression and antidepressant action in zebrafish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Michael; Stewart, Adam Michael; Kalueff, Allan V

    2014-12-01

    Depression is a serious psychiatric condition affecting millions of patients worldwide. Unipolar depression is characterized by low mood, anhedonia, social withdrawal and other severely debilitating psychiatric symptoms. Bipolar disorder manifests in alternating depressed mood and 'hyperactive' manic/hypomanic states. Animal experimental models are an invaluable tool for research into the pathogenesis of bipolar/unipolar depression, and for the development of potential treatments. Due to their high throughput value, genetic tractability, low cost and quick reproductive cycle, zebrafish (Danio rerio) have emerged as a promising new model species for studying brain disorders. Here, we discuss the developing utility of zebrafish for studying depression disorders, and outline future areas of research in this field. We argue that zebrafish represent a useful model organism for studying depression and its behavioral, genetic and physiological mechanisms, as well as for anti-depressant drug discovery.

  12. Climate Change under aggressive mitigation: The ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johns, T.C.; Royer, J.F.; Hoeschel, I.; Huebener, H.; Roeckner, E.; Manzini, E.; May, W.; Dufresne, J.L.; Ottera, O.H.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Salas y Melia, D.; Giorgetta, M.A.; Denvil, S.; Yang, S.; Fogli, P.G.; Koerper, J.; Tjiputra, J.F.; Stehfest, E.; Hewitt, C.D.

    2011-01-01

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental

  13. Climate Change under aggressive mitigation: The ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johns, T.C.; Royer, J.F.; Hoeschel, I.; Huebener, H.; Roeckner, E.; Manzini, E.; May, W.; Dufresne, J.L.; Ottera, O.H.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Salas y Melia, D.; Giorgetta, M.A.; Denvil, S.; Yang, S.; Fogli, P.G.; Koerper, J.; Tjiputra, J.F.; Stehfest, E.; Hewitt, C.D.

    2011-01-01

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental

  14. Phenomenological vs. biophysical models of thermal stress in aquatic eggs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Benjamin T; Pike, Andrew; John, Sara N; Hamda, Natnael; Roberts, Jason; Lindley, Steven T; Danner, Eric M

    2017-01-01

    Predicting species responses to climate change is a central challenge in ecology. These predictions are often based on lab-derived phenomenological relationships between temperature and fitness metrics. We tested one of these relationships using the embryonic stage of a Chinook salmon population. We parameterised the model with laboratory data, applied it to predict survival in the field, and found that it significantly underestimated field-derived estimates of thermal mortality. We used a biophysical model based on mass transfer theory to show that the discrepancy was due to the differences in water flow velocities between the lab and the field. This mechanistic approach provides testable predictions for how the thermal tolerance of embryos depends on egg size and flow velocity of the surrounding water. We found support for these predictions across more than 180 fish species, suggesting that flow and temperature mediated oxygen limitation is a general mechanism underlying the thermal tolerance of embryos.

  15. Predicting aquatic toxicities of chemical pesticides in multiple test species using nonlinear QSTR modeling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha; Singh, Kunwar P

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we established nonlinear quantitative-structure toxicity relationship (QSTR) models for predicting the toxicities of chemical pesticides in multiple aquatic test species following the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) guidelines. The decision tree forest (DTF) and decision tree boost (DTB) based QSTR models were constructed using a pesticides toxicity dataset in Selenastrum capricornutum and a set of six descriptors. Other six toxicity data sets were used for external validation of the constructed QSTRs. Global QSTR models were also constructed using the combined dataset of all the seven species. The diversity in chemical structures and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated. Model validation was performed deriving several statistical coefficients for the test data and the prediction and generalization abilities of the QSTRs were evaluated. Both the QSTR models identified WPSA1 (weighted charged partial positive surface area) as the most influential descriptor. The DTF and DTB QSTRs performed relatively better than the single decision tree (SDT) and support vector machines (SVM) models used as a benchmark here and yielded R(2) of 0.886 and 0.964 between the measured and predicted toxicity values in the complete dataset (S. capricornutum). The QSTR models applied to six other aquatic species toxicity data yielded R(2) of >0.92 (DTF) and >0.97 (DTB), respectively. The prediction accuracies of the global models were comparable with those of the S. capricornutum models. The results suggest for the appropriateness of the developed QSTR models to reliably predict the aquatic toxicity of chemicals and can be used for regulatory purpose.

  16. Modeling the effectiveness of tree planting to mitigate habitat loss in blue oak woodlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard B. Standiford; Douglas McCreary; William Frost

    2002-01-01

    Many local conservation policies have attempted to mitigate the loss of oak woodland habitat resulting from conversion to urban or intensive agricultural land uses through tree planting. This paper models the development of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) stand structure attributes over 50 years after planting. The model uses a single tree, distance...

  17. Modeling with uncertain science: estimating mitigation credits from abating lead poisoning in Golden Eagles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts Cochrane, Jean; Lonsdorf, Eric; Allison, Taber D; Sanders-Reed, Carol A

    2015-09-01

    Challenges arise when renewable energy development triggers "no net loss" policies for protected species, such as where wind energy facilities affect Golden Eagles in the western United States. When established mitigation approaches are insufficient to fully avoid or offset losses, conservation goals may still be achievable through experimental implementation of unproven mitigation methods provided they are analyzed within a framework that deals transparently and rigorously with uncertainty. We developed an approach to quantify and analyze compensatory mitigation that (1) relies on expert opinion elicited in a thoughtful and structured process to design the analysis (models) and supplement available data, (2) builds computational models as hypotheses about cause-effect relationships, (3) represents scientific uncertainty in stochastic model simulations, (4) provides probabilistic predictions of "relative" mortality with and without mitigation, (5) presents results in clear formats useful to applying risk management preferences (regulatory standards) and selecting strategies and levels of mitigation for immediate action, and (6) defines predictive parameters in units that could be monitored effectively, to support experimental adaptive management and reduction in uncertainty. We illustrate the approach with a case study characterized by high uncertainty about underlying biological processes and high conservation interest: estimating the quantitative effects of voluntary strategies to abate lead poisoning in Golden Eagles in Wyoming due to ingestion of spent game hunting ammunition.

  18. A step-by-step procedure for pH model construction in aquatic systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Hofmann

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We present, by means of a simple example, a comprehensive step-by-step procedure to consistently derive a pH model of aquatic systems. As pH modeling is inherently complex, we make every step of the model generation process explicit, thus ensuring conceptual, mathematical, and chemical correctness. Summed quantities, such as total inorganic carbon and total alkalinity, and the influences of modeled processes on them are consistently derived. The model is subsequently reformulated until numerically and computationally simple dynamical solutions, like a variation of the operator splitting approach (OSA and the direct substitution approach (DSA, are obtained. As several solution methods are pointed out, connections between previous pH modelling approaches are established. The final reformulation of the system according to the DSA allows for quantification of the influences of kinetic processes on the rate of change of proton concentration in models containing multiple biogeochemical processes. These influences are calculated including the effect of re-equilibration of the system due to a set of acid-base reactions in local equilibrium. This possibility of quantifying influences of modeled processes on the pH makes the end-product of the described model generation procedure a powerful tool for understanding the internal pH dynamics of aquatic systems.

  19. Assessment of rainfall-runoff modelling for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otieno, Hesbon; Han, Dawei; Woods, Ross

    2015-04-01

    Sustainable water resources management requires reliable methods for quantification of hydrological variables. This is a big challenge in developing countries, due to the problem of inadequate data as a result of sparse gauge networks. Successive occurrence of both abundance and shortage of water can arise in a catchment within the same year, with deficit situations becoming an increasingly occurring phenomenon in Kenya. This work compares the performance of two models in the Tana River catchment in Kenya, in generation of synthetic flow data. One of the models is the simpler USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model that uses a monthly time step and has three parameters. In order to explore alternative modelling schemes, the more complex Pitman model with 19 parameters was also applied in the catchment. It is uncertain whether the complex model (Pitman) will do better than the simple model, because a model with a large number of parameters may do well in the current system but poorly in future. To check this we have used old data (1970-1985) to calibrate the models and to validate with recent data (after 1985) to see which model is robust over time. This study is relevant and useful to water resources managers in scenario analysis for water resources management, planning and development in African countries with similar climates and catchment conditions.

  20. From terrestrial to aquatic fluxes: Integrating stream dynamics within a dynamic global vegetation modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Jerad; Poulter, Benjamin; Emmett, Kristen; Cross, Molly; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Maneta, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Integrated terrestrial ecosystem models simulate the dynamics and feedbacks between climate, vegetation, disturbance, and hydrology and are used to better understand biogeography and biogeochemical cycles. Extending dynamic vegetation models to the aquatic interface requires coupling surface and sub-surface runoff to catchment routing schemes and has the potential to enhance how researchers and managers investigate how changes in the environment might impact the availability of water resources for human and natural systems. In an effort towards creating such a coupled model, we developed catchment-based hydrologic routing and stream temperature model to pair with LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model. LPJ-GUESS simulates detailed stand-level vegetation dynamics such as growth, carbon allocation, and mortality, as well as various physical and hydrologic processes such as canopy interception and through-fall, and can be applied at small spatial scales, i.e., 1 km. We demonstrate how the coupled model can be used to investigate the effects of transient vegetation dynamics and CO2 on seasonal and annual stream discharge and temperature regimes. As a direct management application, we extend the modeling framework to predict habitat suitability for fish habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a 200,000 km2 region that provides critical habitat for a range of aquatic species. The model is used to evaluate, quantitatively, the effects of management practices aimed to enhance hydrologic resilience to climate change, and benefits for water storage and fish habitat in the coming century.

  1. Los Alamos Radiation Hydrocode Models of Asteroid Mitigation by an Internal Explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Robert; Plesko, C.; Dearholdt, W.

    2010-10-01

    Mitigation of a potentially hazardous object (PHO) by a conventional or nuclear subsurface burst is considered. This intervention methodology has been popularized in media presentations and is considered as one possible method of impact-hazard mitigation. We present RAGE radiation hydrocode models of the shock-generated disruption of PHOs by subsurface nuclear bursts and deflection from shallow buried bursts using scenario-specific models from authentic RADAR shape models. We will show 2D and 3D models for the disruption by a large energy source at the center and near the edge (mitigation) of such PHO models (1-10 Mton TNT equivalent), specifically for asteroid 25143 Itokawa. Parametric studies will be done on: the value of the source energy (from 1 Mton to 10 Mton), the parameters in the Steinberg-Guinan strength model used and the internal composition of the object from uniform composition to a "rubble pile” distribution. Specifically we are interested in assessing the optimum depth of burial and energy required to essentially disrupt and/or move the PHO and therefore mitigate the hazard. Recollection will be considered.

  2. Modeling the potential effects of atrazine on aquatic communities in midwestern streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartell, Steven M; Brain, Richard A; Hendley, Paul; Nair, Shyam K

    2013-10-01

    The comprehensive aquatic systems model for atrazine (CASM(ATZ)) estimates the potential toxic effects of atrazine on populations of aquatic plants and consumers in a generic lower-order midwestern stream. The CASM(ATZ) simulates the daily production of 20 periphyton and 6 aquatic vascular plant species. The modeled consumer community consists of 17 functionally defined species of zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, bacteria, and fish. Daily values of population biomass (grams of carbon per square meter) are calculated as nonlinear functions of population bioenergetics, physical-chemical environmental parameters, grazing/predator-prey interactions, and population-specific direct and indirect responses to atrazine. The CASM(ATZ) uses Monte Carlo methods to characterize the implications of phenotypic variability, environmental variability, and uncertainty associated with atrazine toxicity data in estimating the potential impacts of time-varying atrazine exposures on population biomass and community structure. Comparisons of modeled biomass values for plants and consumers with published data indicate that the generic reference simulation realistically describes ecological production in lower-order midwestern streams. Probabilistic assessments were conducted using the CASM(ATZ) to evaluate potential modeled changes in plant community structure resulting from measured atrazine exposure profiles in 3 midwestern US streams representing watersheds highly vulnerable to runoff. Deviation in the median values of maximum 30-d average Steinhaus similarity index ranged from 0.09% to 2.52% from the reference simulation. The CASM(ATZ) could therefore be used for the purposes of risk assessment by comparison of site monitoring-based model output to a biologically relevant Steinhaus similarity index level of concern. Used as a generic screening technology or in site-specific applications, the CASM(AT) provides an effective, coherent, and transparent modeling framework for assessing

  3. Climate Change Mitigation Activities in the Philippine Forestry Sector. Application of the COMAP Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lasco, Rodel D.; Pulhin, Florencia B. [Environmental Forestry Programme (ENFOR), College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines at Los Banos College, 4031 Laguna (Philippines)

    2001-07-01

    The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be a major sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluate potential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) model. The baseline scenario (BAU) assumes that current trends continue up to the year 2030 ('business-as-usual'). Two mitigation scenarios were evaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former is patterned largely from the government's forest master plan while the latter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan. The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of the Philippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814 x 10{sup 6} Mg C, down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS and LS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU, respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantations and forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104 x 10{sup 6} Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV) of benefits is highest in the bioenergy option with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a real discount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs are also highest using bioenergy. The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigation scenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263 x 10{sup 6} while for the HS it is $748 x 10{sup 6}. Finally, policy issues and decisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCF mitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified and discussed. 30 refs.

  4. Individualized Cognitive Modeling for Close-Loop Task Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangfan; Xu, Roger; Wang, Wei; Li, Jiang; Schnell, Tom; Keller, Mike

    2010-01-01

    An accurate real-time operator functional state assessment makes it possible to perform task management, minimize risks, and improve mission performance. In this paper, we discuss the development of an individualized operator functional state assessment model that identifies states likely leading to operational errors. To address large individual variations, we use two different approaches to build a model for each individual using its data as well as data from subjects with similar responses. If a subject's response is similar to that of the individual of interest in a specific functional state, all the training data from this subject will be used to build the individual model. The individualization methods have been successfully verified and validated with a driving test data set provided by University of Iowa. With the individualized models, the mean squared error can be significantly decreased (by around 20%).

  5. The Price Model of Aquatic Products Based on Predictive Control Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a disequilibrium cobweb model of price of aquatic products, and applies predictive control theory, so that the system operates stably, and the deviation between supply and demand of aquatic products smoothly tracks the pre-given target. It defines the supply and demand change model, and researches the impact of parameter selection in this model on dynamic state and robustness of the system. I conduct simulation by Matlab software, to get the response curve of this model. The results show that in the early period of commodities coming into the market, affected by lack of market information and many other factors, the price fluctuates greatly in a short time. The market will gradually achieve balance between supply and demand over time, and the price fluctuations in the neighbouring two periods are broadly consistent. The increase in model parameter can decrease overshoot, to promote the stability of system, but the slower the dynamic response, the longer the deviation between supply and demand to accurately track a given target. Therefore, by selecting different parameters, the decision-makers can establish different models of supply and demand changes to meet the actual needs, and ensure stable development of market. Simulation results verify the excellent performance of this algorithm.

  6. Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

    2009-04-01

    flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness… The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling, in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions, which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling, we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which

  7. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic : modeling the risks and health-economic impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George; Nelson, E. Anthony S.; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P.

    2010-01-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic infl

  8. Modeling the greenhouse gas budget of straw returning in China: feasibility of mitigation and countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua

    2010-05-01

    Straw returning is considered to be one of the most promising carbon sequestration measures in China's cropland. A compound model, namely "Straw Returning and Burning Model-Expansion" (SRBME), was built to estimate the net mitigation potential, economic benefits, and air pollutant reduction of straw returning. Three scenarios, that is, baseline, "full popularization of straw returning (FP)," and "full popularization of straw returning and precision fertilization (FP + P)," were set to reflect popularization of straw returning. The results of the SRBME indicated that (1) compared with the soil carbon sequestration of 13.37 Tg/yr, the net mitigation potentials, which were 6.328 Tg/yr for the FP scenario and 9.179 Tg/yr for the FP + P scenario, had different trends when the full budget of the greenhouse gases was considered; (2) when the feasibility in connection with greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, economic benefits, and environmental benefits was taken into consideration, straw returning was feasible in 15 provinces in the FP scenario, with a total net mitigation potential of 7.192 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 1.473 billion (USD 216.6 million); (3) in the FP + P scenario, with the implementation of precision fertilization, straw returning was feasible in 26 provinces with a total net mitigation potential of 10.39 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 5.466 billion (USD 803.8 million); (4) any extent of change in the treatment of straw from being burnt to being returned would contribute to air pollution reduction; (5) some countermeasures, such as CH(4) reduction in rice paddies, precision fertilization, financial support, education and propaganda, would promote the feasibility of straw returning as a mitigation measure.

  9. Further RAGE modeling of asteroid mitigation: surface and subsurface explosions in porous objects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dearholt, William R [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-03

    Disruption or mitigation of a potentially hazardous object (PHO) by a high-energy subsurface burst is considered. This is just one possible method of impact-hazard mitigation. We present RAGE hydrocode models of the shock-generated disruption of PHOs by subsurface nuclear bursts using scenario-specific models from realistic RADAR shape models. We will show 2D and 3D models for the disruption by a large energy source at the center of such PHO models ({approx}100 kt-10 Mt) specifically for the shape of the asteroid 25143 Itokawa. We study the effects of non-uniform composition (rubble pile), shallow buried bursts for the optimal depth of burial and porosity.

  10. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does risk. Urban expansion and associated land use dynamics are recognised as one of the main causes of increased flood risk in Europe. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment o...

  11. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of mitigation methods for multiple pollutants at farm scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooday, R D; Anthony, S G; Chadwick, D R; Newell-Price, P; Harris, D; Duethmann, D; Fish, R; Collins, A L; Winter, M

    2014-01-15

    Reductions in agricultural pollution are essential for meeting nationally and internationally agreed policy targets for losses to both air and water. Numerous studies quantify the impact of relevant mitigation methods by field experimentation or computer modelling. The majority of these studies have addressed individual methods and frequently also individual pollutants. This paper presents a conceptual model for the synthesis of the evidence base to calculate the impact of multiple methods addressing multiple pollutants in order to identify least cost solutions for multiple policy objectives. The model is implemented as a farm scale decision support tool that quantifies baseline pollutant losses for identifiable sources, areas and pathways and incorporates a genetic algorithm based multi-objective procedure for determining optimal suites of mitigation methods. The tool is generic as baseline losses can be replaced with measured data and the default library of mitigation methods can be edited and expanded. The tool is demonstrated through application to two contrasting farm systems, using survey data on agricultural practices typical of England and Wales. These examples show how the tool could be used to help target the adoption of mitigation options for the control of diffuse pollution from agriculture. The feedback from workshops where Farmscoper was demonstrated is included to highlight the potential role of Farmscoper as part of the farm advisory process.

  12. Modeling an aquatic ecosystem: application of an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping to reduce prediction uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedel, Michael; Buscema, Massimo

    2016-04-01

    Aquatic ecosystem models can potentially be used to understand the influence of stresses on catchment resource quality. Given that catchment responses are functions of natural and anthropogenic stresses reflected in sparse and spatiotemporal biological, physical, and chemical measurements, an ecosystem is difficult to model using statistical or numerical methods. We propose an artificial adaptive systems approach to model ecosystems. First, an unsupervised machine-learning (ML) network is trained using the set of available sparse and disparate data variables. Second, an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping is applied to reduce the number of ecosystem variables to an optimal set. Third, the optimal set of ecosystem variables is used to retrain the ML network. Fourth, a stochastic cross-validation approach is applied to quantify and compare the nonlinear uncertainty in selected predictions of the original and reduced models. Results are presented for aquatic ecosystems (tens of thousands of square kilometers) undergoing landscape change in the USA: Upper Illinois River Basin and Central Colorado Assessment Project Area, and Southland region, NZ.

  13. Application of Gray Metabolic GM (1,1) Model in Prediction of Annual Total Yields of Chinese Aquatic Products

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Songqian; HUANG; Weimin; WANG; Cong; ZENG; Shuang; HAO; Xiaojuan; CAO

    2013-01-01

    To predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years ( 2011-2015) ,based on the theory and method of gray system,this paper firstly establishes a conventional GM ( 1,1) model and a gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model respectively to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2006-2009 and compare the prediction accuracy between these two models. Then,it selects the model with higher accuracy to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in future five years. The comparison indicates that gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller error,thus it is more suitable for prediction of annual total yields of aquatic products. Therefore,it adopts the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015. The prediction results of annual total yields are 55. 32,57. 46,59. 72,62. 02 and 64. 43 million tons respectively in future five years with annual average increase rate of about 3. 7% ,much higher than the objective of 2. 2% specified in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the National Fishery Development ( 2011 to 2015) . The results of this research show that the gray metabolic GM ( 1,1) model is suitable for prediction of yields of aquatic products and the total yields of Chinese aquatic products in 2011-2015 will totally be able to realize the objective of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.

  14. Application of Bayesian Network modeling on the stability and toxicity of engineered nanomaterials in aquatic ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ondiaka, M

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The stability of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in the aquatic systems influences their eventual interactions with aquatic biota – and subsequently the observed toxic effects. Increasing data suggests that physicochemical properties of ENMs...

  15. Web Service Based Approach to Link Heterogeneous Climate-Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Mitigation Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Bulavskaya, Tatyana; Niamir, Leila; Dhavala, Kishore

    2016-01-01

    Climate change mitigation analysis requires understanding the causes and identifying the possible alternative actions that could be taken. We linked heterogeneous models that focus on climate, energy, and economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation. The models were originally developed to s

  16. Web Service Based Approach to Link Heterogeneous Climate-Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Mitigation Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, G.F.; Voinov, A.; Bulavskaya, Tatyana; Niamir, Leila; Dhavala, Kishore

    2016-01-01

    Climate change mitigation analysis requires understanding the causes and identifying the possible alternative actions that could be taken. We linked heterogeneous models that focus on climate, energy, and economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation. The models were originally developed to

  17. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2

  18. Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here

  19. Hydrologic modeling of aquatic plant treatment systems polishing dairy lagoon effluents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cothren, G M; Chen, S; Rahman, M; Malone, R

    2001-01-01

    In this study, a mathematical model of the hydrologic balance of an aquatic plant treatment system (APTS) has been developed. The mass balance approach has been adopted and the major components of the water balance, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET) and percolation have been incorporated into the model. For estimation of ET for duckweed and water hyacinth plants, mathematical relationships were established between ET and pan evaporation using data collected at the site. The observed ET rates of water hyacinths were up to 66% higher than the pan evaporation rates. But for duckweed, the observed ET rates were 10 to 20% lower than the pan evaporation rates. Using the available historic precipitation and pan evaporation data, several computer simulations of the model were run to estimate the HLR and HRT of the ponds under different design requirements. The results indicate that aquatic ponds with water hyacinths can operate at greater HLR's than ponds supporting duckweed. For a zero discharge system, the allowable HLR for a water hyacinth pond was found to be 5 times that of a pond containing duckweed.

  20. Spatio–temporal rain attenuation model for application to fade mitigation techniques

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    We present a new stochastic-dynamic model useful for the planning and design of gigahertz satellite communications using fade mitigation techniques. It is a generalization of the Maseng–Bakken and targets dual-site dual-frequency rain attenu- ated satellite links. The outcome is a consistent and comprehensive model capable of yielding theoretical descriptions of: 1) long-term power spectral density of rain attenuation; 2) rain fade slope; 3) rain frequency scaling factor; 4) site diversity; a...

  1. IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake: A three-dimensional complex dynamic model for subtropical aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fragoso, C.R.; Nes, van E.H.; Janse, J.H.; Motta Marques, da D.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake, a three-dimensional complex dynamic model for subtropical aquatic ecosystems. It combines a spatially explicit hydrodynamic model with a water-quality and biotic model of ecological interactions. The software, which is freely available for research purposes, ha

  2. Delay Mitigation in the Malaysian Housing Industry: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Saar Chai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The housing industry is one of the major contributors to the economy in Malaysia due to the constantly high housing demand. The housing demand has increased due to the rapid growth in population and urbanisation in the country. One of the major challenges in the housing industry is the late delivery of housing supply, which in some instances leads to sick and abandoned housing projects. Despite being extensively investigated, th in a negative impact, there is a strong need to review the housing delay mitigation measures practised in Malaysia. This paper aims to evaluate the current delay mitigation measures and its main objective is to explore the relationship between the mitigation measures and delay in housing via a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM approach. A questionnaire survey through an online survey tool was conducted across 13 states and three Federal Territories in Malaysia. The target respondents are the local authorities, developers, consultants (principal submitting persons and contractors. The findings show that 17 predictive, preventive, organisational or corrective. This paper demonstrates that preventive measures are the most influential mitigation measures for housing delivery delay.

  3. Biojet Fuels and Emissions Mitigation in Aviation: an Integrated Assessment Modeling Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Muratori, Matteo; Kyle, Gordon P.

    2017-05-01

    Although the aviation sector is a relatively small contributor to total greenhouse gas emissions, it is a fast-growing, fossil fuel-intensive transportation mode. Because aviation is a mode for which liquid fuels currently have no practical substitute, biofuels are gaining attention as a promising cleaner alternative. In this paper, we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to develop scenarios that explore the potential impact of biojet fuels for use in aviation in the context of broader climate change mitigation. We show that a carbon price would have a significant impact on the aviation sector. In the absence of alternatives to jet fuel from petroleum, mitigation potential is limited and would be at the expense of aviation service demand growth. However, mitigation efforts through the increased use of biojet fuels show potential to reduce the carbon intensity of aviation, and may not have a significant impact on carbon mitigation and bioenergy use in the rest of the energy system. The potential of biofuel to decarbonize air transport is significantly enhanced when carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is used in the conversion process to produce jet fuels from biomass feedstock.

  4. Species sensitivity distribution for chlorpyrifos to aquatic organisms: Model choice and sample size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jinsong; Chen, Boyu

    2016-03-01

    Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is a widely used model that extrapolates the ecological risk to ecosystem levels from the ecotoxicity of a chemical to individual organisms. However, model choice and sample size significantly affect the development of the SSD model and the estimation of hazardous concentrations at the 5th centile (HC5). To interpret their effects, the SSD model for chlorpyrifos, a widely used organophosphate pesticide, to aquatic organisms is presented with emphases on model choice and sample size. Three subsets of median effective concentration (EC50) with different sample sizes were obtained from ECOTOX and used to build SSD models based on parametric distribution (normal, logistic, and triangle distribution) and nonparametric bootstrap. The SSD models based on the triangle distribution are superior to the normal and logistic distributions according to several goodness-of-fit techniques. Among all parametric SSD models, the one with the largest sample size based on the triangle distribution gives the most strict HC5 with 0.141μmolL(-1). The HC5 derived from the nonparametric bootstrap is 0.159μmol L(-1). The minimum sample size required to build a stable SSD model is 11 based on parametric distribution and 23 based on nonparametric bootstrap. The study suggests that model choice and sample size are important sources of uncertainty for application of the SSD model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. MOIRA models and methodologies for assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures in complex aquatic systems contaminated by radionuclides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monte, L. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente; Brittain, J.E. [Oslo Univ., Oslo (Norway); Zoological Museum, Oslo (Norway); Haakanson, L. [Uppsala Univ., Uppsala (Sweden). Inst. of Earth Science; Gallego Diaz, E. [Madrid Univ. Politecnica, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Ingenieria Nuclear

    1999-07-01

    The present report is composed of a set of articles written by the partners of the MOIRA project (a model-based computerized system for management support to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring radionuclide contaminated aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas). The report describes models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in complex aquatic systems and the effects of countermeasures for their restoration. [Italian] Il rapporto contiene articoli preparati nell'ambito del progetto MOIRA (a model-based computerized system for management support to identify optimal remedial strategies for restoring radionuclide contaminated aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas), che descrive alcuni modelli per la previsione del comportamento di radionuclidi in sistemi acquatici complessi e per la valutazione dell'effetto delle contromisure per il loro recupero.

  6. Non-linear MHD modeling of edge localized mode cycles and mitigation by resonant magnetic perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orain, François; Bécoulet, M.; Morales, J.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Dif-Pradalier, G.; Hoelzl, M.; Garbet, X.; Pamela, S.; Nardon, E.; Passeron, C.; Latu, G.; Fil, A.; Cahyna, P.

    2015-01-01

    The dynamics of a multi-edge localized mode (ELM) cycle as well as the ELM mitigation by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) are modeled in realistic tokamak X-point geometry with the non-linear reduced MHD code JOREK. The diamagnetic rotation is found to be a key parameter enabling us to reproduce the cyclical dynamics of the plasma relaxations and to model the near-symmetric ELM power deposition on the inner and outer divertor target plates consistently with experimental measurements. Moreover, the non-linear coupling of the RMPs with unstable modes are found to modify the edge magnetic topology and induce a continuous MHD activity in place of a large ELM crash, resulting in the mitigation of the ELMs. At larger diamagnetic rotation, a bifurcation from unmitigated ELMs—at low RMP current—towards fully suppressed ELMs—at large RMP current—is obtained.

  7. A probabilistic model for silver bioaccumulation in aquatic systems and assessment of human health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warila, J; Batterman, S; Passino-Reader, D R

    2001-02-01

    Silver (Ag) is discharged in wastewater effluents and is also a component in a proposed secondary water disinfectant. A steady-state model was developed to simulate bioaccumulation in aquatic biota and assess ecological and human health risks. Trophic levels included phytoplankton, invertebrates, brown trout, and common carp. Uptake routes included water, food, or sediment. Based on an extensive review of the literature, distributions were derived for most inputs for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Three scenarios represented ranges of dilution and turbidity. Compared with the limited field data available, median estimates of Ag in carp (0.07-2.1 micrograms/g dry weight) were 0.5 to 9 times measured values, and all measurements were within the predicted interquartile range. Median Ag concentrations in biota were ranked invertebrates > phytoplankton > trout > carp. Biotic concentrations were highest for conditions of low dilution and low turbidity. Critical variables included Ag assimilation efficiency, specific feeding rate, and the phytoplankton bioconcentration factor. Bioaccumulation of Ag seems unlikely to result in toxicity to aquatic biota and humans consuming fish. Although the highest predicted Ag concentrations in water (> 200 ng/L) may pose chronic risks to early survival and development of salmonids and risks of argyria to subsistence fishers, these results occur under highly conservative conditions.

  8. Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baveco, J M Hans; Norman, Steve; Roessink, Ivo; Galic, Nika; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2014-07-01

    Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model, the threshold damage model (TDM), to assess recovery times for 4 aquatic organisms, after insecticide application, in a nonseasonal environment and in 3 spatial settings (pond, stream, and ditch). The species had different life histories (e.g., voltinism, reproductive capacity, mobility). Exposure was derived from a pesticide fate model, following standard European Union scenarios. The results of the IBM-TDM were compared with results from simpler models: one in which exposure was linked to effects by means of concentration-effect relationships (IBM-CE) and one in which the IBM was replaced by a nonspatial, logistic growth model (logistic). For the first, exposure was based on peak concentrations only; for the second, exposure was spatially averaged as well. By using comparisons between models of different complexity and species with different life histories, the authors obtained an understanding of the role spatial processes play in recovery and the conditions under which the full time-varying exposure needs to be considered. The logistic model, which is amenable to an analytic approach, provided additional insights into the sensitivity of recovery times to density dependence and spatial dimensions. © 2014 SETAC.

  9. Modeling effectiveness of gradual increases in source level to mitigate effects of sonar on marine mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Benda-Beckmann, Alexander M; Wensveen, Paul J; Kvadsheim, Petter H; Lam, Frans-Peter A; Miller, Patrick J O; Tyack, Peter L; Ainslie, Michael A

    2014-02-01

    Ramp-up or soft-start procedures (i.e., gradual increase in the source level) are used to mitigate the effect of sonar sound on marine mammals, although no one to date has tested whether ramp-up procedures are effective at reducing the effect of sound on marine mammals. We investigated the effectiveness of ramp-up procedures in reducing the area within which changes in hearing thresholds can occur. We modeled the level of sound killer whales (Orcinus orca) were exposed to from a generic sonar operation preceded by different ramp-up schemes. In our model, ramp-up procedures reduced the risk of killer whales receiving sounds of sufficient intensity to affect their hearing. The effectiveness of the ramp-up procedure depended strongly on the assumed response threshold and differed with ramp-up duration, although extending the duration of the ramp up beyond 5 min did not add much to its predicted mitigating effect. The main factors that limited effectiveness of ramp up in a typical antisubmarine warfare scenario were high source level, rapid moving sonar source, and long silences between consecutive sonar transmissions. Our exposure modeling approach can be used to evaluate and optimize mitigation procedures. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. Modeling and Mitigation for High Frequency Switching Transients Due to Energization in Offshore Wind Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanli Xin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive investigation on high frequency (HF switching transients due to energization of vacuum circuit breakers (VCBs in offshore wind farms (OWFs. This research not only concerns the modeling of main components in collector grids of an OWF for transient analysis (including VCBs, wind turbine transformers (WTTs, submarine cables, but also compares the effectiveness between several mainstream switching overvoltage (SOV protection methods and a new mitigation method called smart choke. In order to accurately reproduce such HF switching transients considering the current chopping, dielectric strength (DS recovery capability and HF quenching capability of VCBs, three models are developed, i.e., a user–defined VCB model, a HF transformer terminal model and a three-core (TC frequency dependent model of submarine cables, which are validated through simulations and compared with measurements. Based on the above models and a real OWF configuration, a simulation model is built and several typical switching transient cases are investigated to analyze the switching transient process and phenomena. Subsequently, according to the characteristics of overvoltages, appropriate parameters of SOV mitigation methods are determined to improve their effectiveness. Simulation results indicate that the user–defined VCB model can satisfactorily simulate prestrikes and the proposed component models display HF characteristics, which are consistent with onsite measurement behaviors. Moreover, the employed protection methods can suppress induced SOVs, which have a steep front, a high oscillation frequency and a high amplitude, among which the smart choke presents a preferable HF damping effect.

  11. Development of a Process Model for CO(2) Laser Mitigation of Damage Growth in Fused Silica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feit, M D; Rubenchik, A M; Boley, C; Rotter, M D

    2003-11-01

    A numerical model of CO{sub 2} laser mitigation of damage growth in fused silica has been constructed that accounts for laser energy absorption, heat conduction, radiation transport, evaporation of fused silica and thermally induced stresses. This model will be used to understand scaling issues and effects of pulse and beam shapes on material removal, temperatures reached and stresses generated. Initial calculations show good agreement of simulated and measured material removal. The model has also been applied to LG-770 glass as a prototype red blocker material.

  12. An Insider Threat Neutralization Mitigation Model Predicated On Cognitive Dissonance (ITNMCD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keshnee Padayachee

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The insider threat concern is a complex issue, as the problem domain intersects the social, technical and socio-technical dimensions. Consequently, counteracting the insider threat involves influencing the insider’s perceptions and behaviour in order to ensure compliance. When an individual’s actions and beliefs are incongruent, this induces a phenomenon known as cognitive dissonance. In order to reduce this dissonance, individuals are self-motivated either to change their behaviours or beliefs, or to rationalize their behaviour. Neutralization is a technique used by criminals to rationalize maleficence. In terms of the insider threat, it has been proposed that if the justifications for committing an offence are eliminated, then the insider is less likely to commit the offence. This process is known as neutralization mitigation. The research reported on here proposes that inducing cognitive dissonance may be a means of mitigating the neutralizations that the insider may use to justify maleficence. To integrate these concepts into a pragmatic implementable solution the Insider Threat Neutralization Mitigation model predicated on Cognitive Dissonance (ITNMCD is proposed. A proof-of-concept was developed and the model concept was evaluated using the design science method.

  13. Does Climate Change Mitigation Activity Affect Crude Oil Prices? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude C. Dike

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates how climate change mitigation affects crude oil prices while using carbon intensity as the indicator for climate change mitigation. The relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity is estimated using an Arellano and Bond GMM dynamic panel model. This study undertakes a regional-level analysis because of the geographical similarities among the countries in a region. Regions considered for the study are Africa, Asia and Oceania, Central and South America, the EU, the Middle East, and North America. Results show that there is a positive relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity, and a 1% change in carbon intensity is expected to cause about 1.6% change in crude oil prices in the short run and 8.4% change in crude oil prices in the long run while the speed of adjustment is 19%.

  14. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johns, T. C.; Royer, J.-F.; Höschel, I.; Huebener, H.; Roeckner, E.; Manzini, E.; May, W.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Otterå, O. H.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Salas Y Melia, D.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Denvil, S.; Yang, S.; Fogli, P. G.; Körper, J.; Tjiputra, J. F.; Stehfest, E.; Hewitt, C. D.

    2011-11-01

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  15. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  16. Modeling the Heterogeneous Effects of GHG Mitigation Policies on Global Agriculture and Forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, A.; Henderson, B.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.; Sohngen, B.

    2010-12-01

    Agriculture and forestry are envisioned as potentially key sectors for climate change mitigation policy, yet the depth of analysis of mitigation options and their economic consequences remains remarkably shallow in comparison to that for industrial mitigation. Farming and land use change - much of it induced by agriculture -account for one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Any serious attempt to curtail these emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on agricultural expansion into areas currently under more carbon-intensive land cover. However, agriculture and forestry are extremely heterogeneous, both in the technology and intensity of production, as well as in the GHG emissions intensity of these activities. And these differences, in turn, give rise to significant changes in the distribution of agricultural production, trade and consumption in the wake of mitigation policies. This paper assesses such distributional impacts via a global economic analysis undertaken with a modified version of the GTAP model. The paper builds on a global general equilibrium GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009). This is a unified modeling framework that links the agricultural, forestry, food processing and other sectors through land, and other factor markets and international trade, and incorporates different land-types, land uses and related CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions and sequestration. The economic data underlying this work is the global GTAP data base aggregated up to 19 regions and 29 sectors. The model incorporates mitigation cost curves for different regions and sectors based on information from the US-EPA. The forestry component of the model is calibrated to the results of the state of the art partial equilibrium global forestry model of Sohngen and Mendelson (2007). Forest carbon sequestration at both the extensive and intensive margins are modeled separately to better isolate land competition between

  17. Next Generation Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System (NextFrAMES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fekete, B. M.; Wollheim, W. M.; Lakhankar, T.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2008-12-01

    Earth System model development is becoming an increasingly complex task. As scientists attempt to represent the physical and bio-geochemical processes and various feedback mechanisms in unprecedented detail, the models themselves are becoming increasingly complex. At the same time, the surrounding IT infrastructure needed to carry out these detailed model computations is growing increasingly complex as well. To be accurate and useful, Earth System models must manage a vast amount of data in heterogenous computing environments ranging from single CPU systems to Beowulf type computer clusters. Scientists developing Earth System models increasingly confront obstacles associated with IT infrastructure. Numerous development efforts are on the way to ease that burden and offer model development platforms that reduce IT challenges and allow scientists to focus on their science. While these new modeling frameworks (e.g. FMS, ESMF, CCA, OpenMI) do provide solutions to many IT challenges (performing input/output, managing space and time, establishing model coupling, etc.), they are still considerably complex and often have steep learning curves. Over the course of the last fifteen years ,the University of New Hampshire developed several modeling frameworks independently from the above-mentioned efforts (Data Assembler, Frameworks for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System and NextFrAMES which is continued at CCNY). While the UNH modeling frameworks have numerous similarities to those developed by other teams, these frameworks, in particular the latest NextFrAMES, represent a novel model development paradigm. While other modeling frameworks focus on providing services to modelers to perform various tasks, NextFrAMES strives to hide all of those services and provide a new approach for modelers to express their scientific thoughts. From a scientific perspective, most models have two core elements: the overall model structure (defining the linkages between the simulated processes

  18. Estimating European soil organic carbon mitigation potential in a global integrated land use model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Stefan; Böttcher, Hannes; Schneider, Uwe; Schmid, Erwin; Havlík, Petr

    2013-04-01

    Several studies have shown the dynamic interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates, soil management decisions and SOC levels. Management practices such as reduced and no-tillage, improved residue management and crop rotations as well as the conversion of marginal cropland to native vegetation or conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland offer the potential to increase SOC content. Even though dynamic interactions are widely acknowledged in literature, they have not been implemented in most existing land use decision models. A major obstacle is the high data and computing requirements for an explicit representation of alternative land use sequences since a model has to be able to track all different management decision paths. To our knowledge no study accounted so far for SOC dynamics explicitly in a global integrated land use model. To overcome these conceptual difficulties described above we apply an approach capable of accounting for SOC dynamics in GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model), a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors. GLOBIOM represents all major land based sectors and therefore is able to account for direct and indirect effects of land use change as well as leakage effects (e.g. through trade) implicitly. Together with the detailed representation of technologies (e.g. tillage and fertilizer management systems), these characteristics make the model a highly valuable tool for assessing European SOC emissions and mitigation potential. Demand and international trade are represented in this version of the model at the level of 27 EU member states and 23 aggregated world regions outside Europe. Changes in the demand on the one side, and profitability of the different land based activities on the other side, are the major determinants of land use change in GLOBIOM. In this paper we estimate SOC emissions from cropland for the EU until

  19. ERK inhibition with PD184161 mitigates brain damage in a mouse model of stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gladbach, Amadeus; van Eersel, Janet; Bi, Mian; Ke, Yazi D; Ittner, Lars M

    2014-05-01

    Ischemic stroke is a leading cause of death. It has previously been shown that blocking activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) with the MEK inhibitor U0126 mitigates brain damage in rodent models of ischemic stroke. Here we show that the newer MEK inhibitor PD184161 reduces cell death and altered gene expression in cultured neurons and mice undergoing excitotoxicity, and has similar protective effects in a mouse model of stroke. This further supports ERK inhibition as a potential treatment for stroke.

  20. Mitigating cascades in sandpile models: an immunization strategy for systemic risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scala, Antonio; Zlatić, Vinko; Caldarelli, Guido; D'Agostino, Gregorio

    2016-10-01

    We use a simple model of distress propagation (the sandpile model) to show how financial systems are naturally subject to the risk of systemic failures. Taking into account possible network structures among financial institutions, we investigate if simple policies can limit financial distress propagation to avoid system-wide crises, i.e. to dampen systemic risk. We therefore compare different immunization policies (i.e. targeted helps to financial institutions) and find that the information coming from the network topology allows to mitigate systemic cascades by targeting just few institutions.

  1. Coupling ecological and social network models to assess "transmission" and "contagion" of an aquatic invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haak, Danielle M; Fath, Brian D; Forbes, Valery E; Martin, Dustin R; Pope, Kevin L

    2017-04-01

    Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensis alters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling the Effects of Harvest Alternatives on Mitigating Oak Decline in a Central Hardwood Forest Landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Spetich, Martin A; Shifley, Stephen R; Thompson Iii, Frank R; Fraser, Jacob S

    2013-01-01

    Oak decline is a process induced by complex interactions of predisposing factors, inciting factors, and contributing factors operating at tree, stand, and landscape scales. It has greatly altered species composition and stand structure in affected areas. Thinning, clearcutting, and group selection are widely adopted harvest alternatives for reducing forest vulnerability to oak decline by removing susceptible species and declining trees. However, the long-term, landscape-scale effects of these different harvest alternatives are not well studied because of the limited availability of experimental data. In this study, we applied a forest landscape model in combination with field studies to evaluate the effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline in a Central Hardwood Forest landscape. Results showed that the potential oak decline in high risk sites decreased strongly in the next five decades irrespective of harvest alternatives. This is because oak decline is a natural process and forest succession (e.g., high tree mortality resulting from intense competition) would eventually lead to the decrease in oak decline in this area. However, forest harvesting did play a role in mitigating oak decline and the effectiveness varied among the three harvest alternatives. The group selection and clearcutting alternatives were most effective in mitigating oak decline in the short and medium terms, respectively. The long-term effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline became less discernible as the role of succession increased. The thinning alternative had the highest biomass retention over time, followed by the group selection and clearcutting alternatives. The group selection alternative that balanced treatment effects and retaining biomass was the most viable alternative for managing oak decline. Insights from this study may be useful in developing effective and informed forest harvesting plans for managing oak decline.

  3. Modeling the Effects of Harvest Alternatives on Mitigating Oak Decline in a Central Hardwood Forest Landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen J Wang

    Full Text Available Oak decline is a process induced by complex interactions of predisposing factors, inciting factors, and contributing factors operating at tree, stand, and landscape scales. It has greatly altered species composition and stand structure in affected areas. Thinning, clearcutting, and group selection are widely adopted harvest alternatives for reducing forest vulnerability to oak decline by removing susceptible species and declining trees. However, the long-term, landscape-scale effects of these different harvest alternatives are not well studied because of the limited availability of experimental data. In this study, we applied a forest landscape model in combination with field studies to evaluate the effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline in a Central Hardwood Forest landscape. Results showed that the potential oak decline in high risk sites decreased strongly in the next five decades irrespective of harvest alternatives. This is because oak decline is a natural process and forest succession (e.g., high tree mortality resulting from intense competition would eventually lead to the decrease in oak decline in this area. However, forest harvesting did play a role in mitigating oak decline and the effectiveness varied among the three harvest alternatives. The group selection and clearcutting alternatives were most effective in mitigating oak decline in the short and medium terms, respectively. The long-term effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline became less discernible as the role of succession increased. The thinning alternative had the highest biomass retention over time, followed by the group selection and clearcutting alternatives. The group selection alternative that balanced treatment effects and retaining biomass was the most viable alternative for managing oak decline. Insights from this study may be useful in developing effective and informed forest harvesting plans for managing oak

  4. Modeling and Simulation of Series Compensator to Mitigate Power Quality Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.Sadaiappan,

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Power Electronics and Advanced Control technologies have made it possible to mitigate power quality problems and maintain the operation of sensitive loads. Among power system disturbances, voltage sags, swells and harmonics are some of the severe problems to the sensitive loads. The series compensation method is best suited to protect such loads against those disturbances. The use of a series compensator (SC to improve power quality is an isolated power system is investigated. The role of the compensator is not only to mitigate the effects of voltage sag, but also to reduce the harmonic distortion due to the presence of non linear loads in the network. In this paper, a series compensator is proposed and a method of harmonic compensation is described and a method to mitigate voltage sag is investigated. The proposed series compensator consists of Energy Storage System (ESS and Voltage Source Inverter (VSI, Injection Transformer. The ESS can be a capacitor of suitable capacity. ESS would act as a buffer and generally provides the energy needed for load ride-through during voltage sag. Injection Transformer is used to inject the voltage in transmission line in appropriate level.In this way the terminal voltage of the protected sensitive load can be regulated to maintain a constant level. The modeling and imulation of the proposed series compensator was implemented in Matlab Simulink work space. Simulation results showed that the proposed series compensator was efficient in mitigating voltage sags and harmonics and thus improve the power quality of the isolated power system. This approach is different from conventional methods and provides effective solution. If this method is enhanced in future it could provide much more improved power quality.

  5. A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the

  6. Plastic as a carrier of POPs to aquatic organisms: a model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelmans, Albert A; Besseling, Ellen; Wegner, Anna; Foekema, Edwin M

    2013-07-16

    It has been hypothesized that persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in microplastic may pose a risk to aquatic organisms. Here we develop and analyze a conceptual model that simulates the effects of plastic on bioaccumulation of POPs. The model accounts for dilution of exposure concentration by sorption of POPs to plastic (POP "dilution"), increased bioaccumulation by ingestion of plastic-containing POPs ("carrier"), and decreased bioaccumulation by ingestion of clean plastic ("cleaning"). The model is parametrized for the lugworm Arenicola marina and evaluated against recently published bioaccumulation data for this species from laboratory bioassays with polystyrene microplastic. Further scenarios include polyethylene microplastic, nanosized plastic, and open marine systems. Model analysis shows that plastic with low affinity for POPs such as polystyrene will have a marginal decreasing effect on bioaccumulation, governed by dilution. For stronger sorbents such as polyethylene, the dilution, carrier, and cleaning mechanism are more substantial. In closed laboratory bioassay systems, dilution and cleaning dominate, leading to decreased bioaccumulation. Also in open marine systems a decrease is predicted due to a cleaning mechanism that counteracts biomagnification. However, the differences are considered too small to be relevant from a risk assessment perspective.

  7. Thermal modelling approaches to enable mitigation measures implementation for salmonid gravel stages in hydropeaking rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Mulet, R.; Alfredsen, K. T.

    2016-12-01

    The dewatering of salmon spawning redds can lead to early life stages mortality due to hydropeaking operations, with higher impact on the alevins stages as they have lower tolerance to dewatering than the eggs. Targeted flow-related mitigations measures can reduce such mortality, but it is essential to understand how hydropeaking change thermal regimes in rivers and may impact embryo development; only then optimal measures can be implemented at the right development stage. We present a set of experimental approaches and modelling tools for the estimation of hatch and swim-up dates based on water temperature data in the river Lundesokna (Norway). We identified critical periods for gravel-stages survival and through comparing hydropeaking vs unregulated thermal and hydrological regimes, we established potential flow-release measures to minimise mortality. Modelling outcomes were then used assess the cost-efficiency of each measure. The combinations of modelling tools used in this study were overall satisfactory and their application can be useful especially in systems where little field data is available. Targeted measures built on well-informed modelling approaches can be pre-tested based on their efficiency to mitigate dewatering effects vs. the hydropower system capacity to release or conserve water for power production. Overall, environmental flow releases targeting specific ecological objectives can provide better cost-effective options than conventional operational rules complying with general legislation.

  8. Aquatic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, T. V.; Sand-Jensen, K.

    2006-01-01

    Aquatic fl owering plants form a relatively young plant group on an evolutionary timescale. The group has developed over the past 80 million years from terrestrial fl owering plants that re-colonised the aquatic environment after 60-100 million years on land. The exchange of species between...... terrestrial and aquatic environments continues today and is very intensive along stream banks. In this chapter we describe the physical and chemical barriers to the exchange of plants between land and water....

  9. A modelling framework for the transport, transformation and biouptake of manufactured nanoparticles in the aquatic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofts, Stephen; Keller, Virginie; Dumont, Egon; Williams, Richard; Praetorius, Antonia; von der Kammer, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The development of innovative new chemical products is a key aspect of the modern economy, yet society demands that such development is environmentally sustainable. Developing knowledge of how new classes of chemicals behave following release to the environment is key to understanding the hazards that will potentially result. Nanoparticles are a key example of a class of chemicals that have undergone a significant expansion in production and use in recent years and so there is a need to develop tools to predict their potential hazard following their deliberate or incidental release to the environment. Generalising the understanding of the environmental behaviour of manufactured nanoparticles in general is challenging, as they are chemically and physically diverse (e.g. metals, metal oxides, carbon nanotubes, cellulose, quantum dots). Furthermore, nanoparticles may be manufactured with capping agents to modify their desired behaviour in industrial applications; such agents may also influence their environmental behaviour. Also, nanoparticles may become significantly modified from their as-manufactured forms both prior to and after the point of environmental release. Tools for predicting nanoparticle behaviour and hazard need to be able to consider a wide range of release scenarios and aspects of nanoparticle behaviour in the environment (e.g. dissolution, transformation of capping agents, agglomeration and aggregation behaviour), where such behaviours are not shared by all types of nanoparticle. This implies the need for flexible, futureproofed tools capable of being updated to take new understanding of behavioural processes into account as such knowledge emerges. This presentation will introduce the NanoFASE model system, a multimedia modelling framework for the transport, transformation and biouptake of manufactured nanoparticles. The complete system will comprise atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic compartments to allow holistic simulation of nanoparticles; this

  10. Geometrical optics approach to modelling vision in semi-aquatic snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almashhad, Khadijah Abdrabalnabi

    Snake's eyes have some very special characteristics that make them rather enviable. One interesting characteristic about semi-aquatic snakes is their ability to adapt their vision on land or underwater to interact with their environment without any problems, so semi-aquatic snakes constitute a threat to prey on both media. Semi-aquatic snake's eye, in general, is not largely studied in terms of optical properties and the mechanical properties. We examined the optical properties by studying the behavior of refractive index of a lens under stress while we investigated the mechanical properties to understand the relationship between force and compression by using the Hertzian theory of elastic.

  11. Modelling population-level consequences of chronic external gamma irradiation in aquatic invertebrates under laboratory conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lance, Emilie [Laboratoire de modelisation pour l' expertise environnementale (LM2E) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France); Alonzo, Frederic, E-mail: frederic.alonzo@irsn.fr [Laboratoire d' ecotoxicologie des radionucleides (LECO) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France); Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent [Laboratoire de biogeochimie, biodisponibilite et transferts des radionucleides (L2BT) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France); Beaugelin-Seiller, Karine; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline [Laboratoire de modelisation pour l' expertise environnementale (LM2E) Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), PRP-ENV, SERIS, Cadarache (France)

    2012-07-01

    We modelled population-level consequences of chronic external gamma irradiation in aquatic invertebrates under laboratory conditions. We used Leslie matrices to combine life-history characteristics (duration of life stages, survival and fecundity rates) and dose rate-response curves for hatching, survival and reproduction fitted on effect data from the FREDERICA database. Changes in net reproductive rate R{sub 0} (offspring per individual) and asymptotic population growth rate {lambda} (dimensionless) were calculated over a range of dose rates in two marine polychaetes (Neanthes arenaceodentata and Ophryotrocha diadema) and a freshwater gastropod (Physa heterostropha). Sensitivities in R{sub 0} and {lambda} to changes in life-history traits were analysed in each species. Results showed that fecundity has the strongest influence on R{sub 0}. A delay in age at first reproduction is most critical for {lambda} independent of the species. Fast growing species were proportionally more sensitive to changes in individual endpoints than slow growing species. Reduction of 10% in population {lambda} were predicted at dose rates of 6918, 5012 and 74,131 {mu}Gy{center_dot}h{sup -1} in N. arenaceodentata, O. diadema and P. heterostropha respectively, resulting from a combination of strong effects on several individual endpoints in each species. These observations made 10%-reduction in {lambda} a poor criterion for population protection. The lowest significant changes in R{sub 0} and {lambda} were respectively predicted at a same dose rate of 1412 {mu}Gy h{sup -1} in N. arenaceodentata, at 760 and 716 {mu}Gy h{sup -1} in O. diadema and at 12,767 and 13,759 {mu}Gy h{sup -1} in P. heterostropha. These values resulted from a combination of slight but significant changes in several measured endpoints and were lower than effective dose rates calculated for the individual level in O. diadema and P. heterostropha. The relevance of the experimental dataset (external irradiation rather

  12. Perturbations to aquatic photosynthesis due to high-energy cosmic ray induced muon flux in the extragalactic shock model

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez, Lien; Rodriguez, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    We modify a mathematical model of photosynthesis to quantify the perturbations that high energy muons could make on aquatic primary productivity. Then we apply this in the context of the extragalactic shock model, according to which Earth receives an enhanced dose of high-energy cosmic rays when it is at the galactic north. We obtain considerable reduction in the photosynthesis rates, consistent with potential drops in biodiversity.

  13. Developing Seasonal Spectral Signature Models to Accurately Assess Indicators of Aquatic Health: Malheur NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Aquatic health is the number one issue to be addressed in the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan. Malheur Lake is the number one...

  14. Modeling the role of microplastics in Bioaccumulation of organic chemicals to marine aquatic organisms. Critical Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelmans, A.A.

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that ingestion of microplastics may increase bioaccumulation of organic chemicals by aquatic organisms. This paper critically reviews the literature on the effects of plastic ingestion on the bioaccumulation of organic chemicals, emphasizing quantitative approaches and mechanistic

  15. Sawtooth mitigation in 3D MHD tokamak modelling with applied magnetic perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfiglio, D.; Veranda, M.; Cappello, S.; Chacón, L.; Escande, D. F.

    2017-01-01

    The effect of magnetic perturbations (MPs) on the sawtoothing dynamics of the internal kink mode in the tokamak is discussed in the framework of nonlinear 3D MHD modelling. Numerical simulations are performed with the pixie3d code (Chacón 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 056103) based on a D-shaped configuration in toroidal geometry. MPs are applied as produced by two sets of coils distributed along the toroidal direction, one set located above and the other set below the outboard midplane, like in experimental devices such as DIII-D and ASDEX Upgrade. The capability of n  =  1 MPs to affect quasi-periodic sawteeth is shown to depend on the toroidal phase difference Δ φ between the perturbations produced by the two sets of coils. In particular, sawtooth mitigation is obtained for the Δ φ =π phasing, whereas no significant effect is observed for Δ φ =0 . Numerical findings are explained by the interplay between different poloidal harmonics in the spectrum of applied MPs, and appear to be consistent with experiments performed in the DIII-D device. Sawtooth mitigation and stimulation of self-organized helical states by applied MPs have been previously demonstrated in both circular tokamak and reversed-field pinch (RFP) experiments in the RFX-mod device, and in related 3D MHD modelling.

  16. Simulation modeling of high-throughput cryopreservation of aquatic germplasm: a case study of blue catfish sperm processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, E; Liao, T W; Tiersch, T R

    2015-02-01

    Emerging commercial-level technology for aquatic sperm cryopreservation has not been modeled by computer simulation. Commercially available software (ARENA, Rockwell Automation, Inc. Milwaukee, WI) was applied to simulate high-throughput sperm cryopreservation of blue catfish (Ictalurus furcatus) based on existing processing capabilities. The goal was to develop a simulation model suitable for production planning and decision making. The objectives were to: 1) predict the maximum output for 8-hr workday; 2) analyze the bottlenecks within the process, and 3) estimate operational costs when run for daily maximum output. High-throughput cryopreservation was divided into six major steps modeled with time, resources and logic structures. The modeled production processed 18 fish and produced 1164 ± 33 (mean ± SD) 0.5-ml straws containing one billion cryopreserved sperm. Two such production lines could support all hybrid catfish production in the US and 15 such lines could support the entire channel catfish industry if it were to adopt artificial spawning techniques. Evaluations were made to improve efficiency, such as increasing scale, optimizing resources, and eliminating underutilized equipment. This model can serve as a template for other aquatic species and assist decision making in industrial application of aquatic germplasm in aquaculture, stock enhancement, conservation, and biomedical model fishes.

  17. sAC from aquatic organisms as a model to study the evolution of acid/base sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tresguerres, Martin

    2014-12-01

    Soluble adenylyl cyclase (sAC) is poised to play multiple physiological roles as an acid/base (A/B) sensor in aquatic organisms. Many of these roles are probably similar to those in mammals; a striking example is the evolutionary conservation of a mechanism involving sAC, carbonic anhydrase and vacuolar H⁺-ATPase that acts as a sensor system and regulator of extracellular A/B in shark gills and mammalian epididymis and kidney. Additionally, the aquatic environment presents unique A/B and physiological challenges; therefore, sACs from aquatic organisms have likely evolved distinct kinetic properties as well as distinct physiological roles. sACs from aquatic organisms offer an excellent opportunity for studying the evolution of A/B sensing at both the molecular and whole organism levels. Moreover, this information could help understand and predict organismal responses to environmental stress based on mechanistic models.This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "The Role of Soluble Adenylyl Cyclase in Health and Disease," guest edited by J. Buck and L. R. Levin. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  19. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We includ

  20. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We

  1. Mathematical Modelling of Thermal Process to Aquatic Environment with Different Hydrometeorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alibek Issakhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model of the thermal process from thermal power plant to aquatic environment of the reservoir-cooler, which is located in the Pavlodar region, 17 Km to the north-east of Ekibastuz town. The thermal process in reservoir-cooler with different hydrometeorological conditions is considered, which is solved by three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and temperature equation for an incompressible flow in a stratified medium. A numerical method based on the projection method, divides the problem into three stages. At the first stage, it is assumed that the transfer of momentum occurs only by convection and diffusion. Intermediate velocity field is solved by fractional steps method. At the second stage, three-dimensional Poisson equation is solved by the Fourier method in combination with tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm. Finally, at the third stage, it is expected that the transfer is only due to the pressure gradient. Numerical method determines the basic laws of the hydrothermal processes that qualitatively and quantitatively are approximated depending on different hydrometeorological conditions.

  2. Numerical modelling of distribution the discharged heat water from thermal power plant on the aquatic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issakhov, Alibek

    2016-06-01

    The paper presents a mathematical model of distribution the discharged heat water from thermal power plant under various operational capacities on the aquatic environment. It was solved by the Navier-Stokes and temperature equations for an incompressible fluid in a stratified medium were based on the splitting method by physical parameters which approximated by the finite volume method. The numerical solution of the equation system was divided into four stages. At the first step it was assumed that the momentum transfer carried out only by convection and diffusion. While the intermediate velocity field was solved by 5-step Runge-Kutta method. At the second stage, the pressure field was solved by found the intermediate velocity field. Whereas Poisson equation for the pressure field was solved by Jacobi method. The third step assumes that the transfer was carried out only by pressure gradient. Finally the fourth step of the temperature equation was also solved as motion equations, with 5-step Runge-Kutta method. The algorithm was parallelized on high-performance computer. The obtained numerical results of three-dimensional stratified turbulent flow were compared with experimental data. What revealed qualitatively and quantitatively approximately the basic laws of hydrothermal processes occurring in the reservoir-cooler.

  3. Development and application of a multimetal multibiotic ligand model for assessing aquatic toxicity of metal mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santore, Robert C; Ryan, Adam C

    2015-04-01

    A multimetal, multiple binding site version of the biotic ligand model (mBLM) has been developed for predicting and explaining the bioavailability and toxicity of mixtures of metals to aquatic organisms. The mBLM was constructed by combining information from single-metal BLMs to preserve compatibility between the single-metal and multiple-metal approaches. The toxicities from individual metals were predicted by assuming additivity of the individual responses. Mixture toxicity was predicted based on both dissolved metal and mBLM-normalized bioavailable metal. Comparison of the 2 prediction methods indicates that metal mixtures frequently appear to have greater toxicity than an additive estimation of individual effects on a dissolved metal basis. However, on an mBLM-normalized basis, mixtures of metals appear to be additive or less than additive. This difference results from interactions between metals and ligands in solutions including natural organic matter, processes that are accounted for in the mBLM. As part of the mBLM approach, a technique for considering variability was developed to calculate confidence bounds (called response envelopes) around the central concentration-response relationship. Predictions using the mBLM and response envelope were compared with observed toxicity for a number of invertebrate and fish species. The results show that the mBLM is a useful tool for considering bioavailability when assessing the toxicity of metal mixtures.

  4. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jallow, B.P.

    1996-12-31

    Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

  5. Mitigation of tip vortex cavitation by means of air injection on a Kaplan turbine scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivetti, A.; Angulo, M.; Lucino, C.; Liscia, S.

    2014-03-01

    Kaplan turbines operating at full-load conditions may undergo excessive vibration, noise and cavitation. In such cases, damage by erosion associated to tip vortex cavitation can be observed at the discharge ring. This phenomenon involves design features such as (1) overhang of guide vanes; (2) blade profile; (3) gap increasing size with blade opening; (4) suction head; (5) operation point; and (6) discharge ring stiffness, among others. Tip vortex cavitation may cause erosion at the discharge ring and draft tube inlet following a wavy pattern, in which the number of vanes can be clearly identified. Injection of pressurized air above the runner blade centerline was tested as a mean to mitigate discharge ring cavitation damage on a scale model. Air entrance was observed by means of a high-speed camera in order to track the air trajectory toward its mergence with the tip vortex cavitation core. Post-processing of acceleration signals shows that the level of vibration and the RSI frequency amplitude decrease proportionally with air flow rate injected. These findings reveal the potential mitigating effect of air injection in preventing cavitation damage and will be useful in further tests to be performed on prototype, aiming at determining the optimum air flow rate, size and distribution of the injectors.

  6. Modeling effects of urban heat island mitigation strategies on heat-related morbidity: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Humberto R; Phelan, Patrick E; Golden, Jay S

    2010-01-01

    A zero-dimensional energy balance model was previously developed to serve as a user-friendly mitigation tool for practitioners seeking to study the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Accordingly, this established model is applied here to show the relative effects of four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) percentage of vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of percentage increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values. In addition to modeling mitigation strategies, we present how the model can be utilized to evaluate human health vulnerability from excessive heat-related events, based on heat-related emergency service data from 2002 to 2006. The 24-h average heat index is shown to have the greatest correlation to heat-related emergency calls in the Phoenix (Arizona, USA) metropolitan region. The four modeled UHI mitigation strategies, taken in combination, would lead to a 48% reduction in annual heat-related emergency service calls, where increasing the albedo is the single most effective UHI mitigation strategy.

  7. Ecological Dose Modeling of Aquatic and Riparian Receptors to Strontium-90 with an Emphasis on Radiosensitive Organs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poston, Ted M.; Traub, Richard J.; Antonio, Ernest J.

    2011-07-20

    The 100-NR-2 site is the location of elevated releases of strontium-90 to the Columbia River via contaminated groundwater. The resulting dose to aquatic and riparian receptors was evaluated in 2005 (DOE 2009) and compared to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) dose guidance values. We have conducted additional dose assessments for a broader spectrum of aquatic and riparian organisms using RESRAD Biota and specific exposure scenarios. Because strontium-90 accumulates in bone, we have also modeled the dose to the anterior kidney, a blood-forming and immune system organ that lies close to the spinal column of fish. The resulting dose is primarily attributable to the yttrium-90 progeny of strontium-90 and very little of the dose is associated with the beta emission from strontium-90. All dose modeling results were calculated with an assumption of secular equilibrium between strontium-90 and yttrum-90.

  8. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-12-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

  9. Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

    Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

  10. Partial continuation model and its application in mitigating systematic errors of double-differenced GPS measurements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Jianfeng; OU Jikun; REN Chao

    2005-01-01

    Based on the so-called partial continuation model with exact finite measurements, a new stochastic assessment procedure is introduced. For every satellite pair, the temporal correlation coefficient is estimated using the original double-differenced (DD) GPS measurements. And then, the Durbin-Watson test is applied to test specific hypothesis on the temporal correlation coefficient. Unless the test is not significant with a certain significant level, a data transformation is required. These transformed measurements are free of time correlations. For purpose of illustration, two static GPS baseline data sets are analyzed in detail. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed procedure can mitigate effectively the impact of systematic errors on DD GPS measurements.

  11. Modelling and Studies for a Wideband Feedback System for Mitigation of Transverse Single Bunch Instabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Li, K S B; Rumolo, G; Cesaratto, J; Dusatko, J; Fox, J; Pivi, M; Pollock, K; Rivetta, C; Turgut, O

    2013-01-01

    As part of the LHC Injector Upgrade (LIU) Project [1], a wideband feedback system is under study for mitigation of coherent single bunch instabilities. This type of system may provide a generic way of shifting the instability threshold to regions that are currently inaccessible, thus, boosting the brightness of future beams. To study the effectiveness of such systems, a numerical model has been developed that constitutes a realistic feedback system including real transfer functions for pickup and kicker, realistic N-tap FIR and IIR filters as well as noise and saturation effects. Simulations of SPS cases have been performed with HEADTAIL to evaluate the feedback effectiveness in the presence of transverse mode coupling and electron clouds. Some results are presented addressing bandwidth limitations and amplifier power requirements.

  12. Electromigration inside logic cells modeling, analyzing and mitigating signal electromigration in nanoCMOS

    CERN Document Server

    Posser, Gracieli; Reis, Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    This book describes new and effective methodologies for modeling, analyzing and mitigating cell-internal signal electromigration in nanoCMOS, with significant circuit lifetime improvements and no impact on performance, area and power. The authors are the first to analyze and propose a solution for the electromigration effects inside logic cells of a circuit. They show in this book that an interconnect inside a cell can fail reducing considerably the circuit lifetime and they demonstrate a methodology to optimize the lifetime of circuits, by placing the output, Vdd and Vss pin of the cells in the less critical regions, where the electromigration effects are reduced. Readers will be enabled to apply this methodology only for the critical cells in the circuit, avoiding impact in the circuit delay, area and performance, thus increasing the lifetime of the circuit without loss in other characteristics. .

  13. Conducted EMI Modeling and Mitigation for Power Converters and Motor Drives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J.

    2012-05-01

    The increasing use of power electronics in aircraft power systems to enable new, more-electric aircraft (MEA) functions has also led to increasing EMI emission. EMI filters may account for more than 50% of the overall volume and weight of high-power converters such as variable-speed motor drives. The traditional approach to mitigating EMI requires functional prototypes and EMI measurements before filter design can start. Such an empirical, EMI-last approach results in designs that are suboptimal at best and is a major cause for schedule delay and disruption. This paper reviews recent research on EMI modeling and system solutions to EMI, empha- sizing conducted emission of three-phase converters and variable-speed drives that dominate system EMI filtering requirements. The goal is to enable a concurrent-EMI design approach and to develop optimal system solutions that minimize the overall volume and size.

  14. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  15. Modelling future improvements in the St. Louis River fishery from sediment remediation and aquatic habitat restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presence of fish consumption advisories has a negative impact on fishing. In the St. Louis River, an important natural resource management goal is to reduce or eliminate fish consumption advisories by remediating contaminant sediments and improving aquatic habitat. However, w...

  16. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  17. Contrasting on Hydrocarbon Generation Model and Characteristics of Pyrolysis of Modern Aquatic Plant (Gloeocapsa) vs Marine Animal (Mantis Shrimp)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    A hydrocarbon model of the modern aquatic plant Gloeocapsa and the aquatic animal mantis shrimp was found in thermal simulating experiment. The results show that the modern aquatic plant Gloeocapsa is characterized by late generation, late termination and a long duration of oil generation, while the aquatic animal mantis shrimp is characterized by early generation, early termination and a short duration of oil generation. The n-alkanes from Gloeocapsa and mantis shrimp are characterized by peak carbon C15-C17. With increasing thermal simulating temperature, the peak carbon changes from C17 to C15, and the odd-even predominance of n-allanes becomes less clear. The products from Gloeocapsa contain abundant phenanthrene and naphthalene compounds,and even a little retene, while those from mantis shrimp are dominated by naphthalene compounds, and are poor in phenanthrene compounds. Gloeocapsa and mantis shrimp are rich in C27sterane, relatively rich in tricyclic terpones (C1,-C2,) and hopanes (C27-C35), poor in 5α,14β17β sterane, and coprostane does not disappear until 450 ℃. The tricyclic terpanes in Gloeocapsaare characterized by peak carbon C23 and C2>C21, and in mantis shrimp by C21 and C21>C23. The content of pregnanes is very low at low temperature of thermal simulation, while above 360 ℃,high levels of pregnane series compounds and even degraded C2s and C26 steranes occur in thermal simulation products.

  18. Statistically validated QSARs, based on theoretical descriptors, for modeling aquatic toxicity of organic chemicals in Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Ester; Villa, Fulvio; Gramatica, Paola

    2005-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships in assessing the potential negative effects of chemicals plays an important role in ecotoxicology. (LC50)(96h) in Pimephales promelas (Duluth database) is widely modeled as an aquatic toxicity end-point. The object of this study was to compare different molecular descriptors in the development of new statistically validated QSAR models to predict the aquatic toxicity of chemicals classified according to their MOA and in a unique general model. The applied multiple linear regression approach (ordinary least squares) is based on theoretical molecular descriptor variety (1D, 2D, and 3D, from DRAGON package, and some calculated logP). The best combination of modeling descriptors was selected by the Genetic Algorithm-Variable Subset Selection procedure. The robustness and the predictive performance of the proposed models was verified using both internal (cross-validation by LOO, bootstrap, Y-scrambling) and external statistical validations (by splitting the original data set into training and validation sets by Kohonen-artificial neural networks (K-ANN)). The model applicability domain (AD) was checked by the leverage approach to verify prediction reliability.

  19. Expression of the alternative oxidase mitigates beta-amyloid production and toxicity in model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Khoury, Riyad; Kaulio, Eveliina; Lassila, Katariina A; Crowther, Damian C; Jacobs, Howard T; Rustin, Pierre

    2016-07-01

    Mitochondrial dysfunction has been widely associated with the pathology of Alzheimer's disease, but there is no consensus on whether it is a cause or consequence of disease, nor on the precise mechanism(s). We addressed these issues by testing the effects of expressing the alternative oxidase AOX from Ciona intestinalis, in different models of AD pathology. AOX can restore respiratory electron flow when the cytochrome segment of the mitochondrial respiratory chain is inhibited, supporting ATP synthesis, maintaining cellular redox homeostasis and mitigating excess superoxide production at respiratory complexes I and III. In human HEK293-derived cells, AOX expression decreased the production of beta-amyloid peptide resulting from antimycin inhibition of respiratory complex III. Because hydrogen peroxide was neither a direct product nor substrate of AOX, the ability of AOX to mimic antioxidants in this assay must be indirect. In addition, AOX expression was able to partially alleviate the short lifespan of Drosophila models neuronally expressing human beta-amyloid peptides, whilst abrogating the induction of markers of oxidative stress. Our findings support the idea of respiratory chain dysfunction and excess ROS production as both an early step and as a pathologically meaningful target in Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis, supporting the concept of a mitochondrial vicious cycle underlying the disease.

  20. Oleuropein Prevents Neuronal Death, Mitigates Mitochondrial Superoxide Production and Modulates Autophagy in a Dopaminergic Cellular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imène Achour

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Parkinson’s disease (PD is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, primarily affecting dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. There is currently no cure for PD and present medications aim to alleviate clinical symptoms, thus prevention remains the ideal strategy to reduce the prevalence of this disease. The goal of this study was to investigate whether oleuropein (OLE, the major phenolic compound in olive derivatives, may prevent neuronal degeneration in a cellular dopaminergic model of PD, differentiated PC12 cells exposed to the potent parkinsonian toxin 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA. We also investigated OLE’s ability to mitigate mitochondrial oxidative stress and modulate the autophagic flux. Our results obtained by measuring cytotoxicity and apoptotic events demonstrate that OLE significantly decreases neuronal death. OLE could also reduce mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species resulting from blocking superoxide dismutase activity. Moreover, quantification of autophagic and acidic vesicles in the cytoplasm alongside expression of specific autophagic markers uncovered a regulatory role for OLE against autophagic flux impairment induced by bafilomycin A1. Altogether, our results define OLE as a neuroprotective, anti-oxidative and autophagy-regulating molecule, in a neuronal dopaminergic cellular model.

  1. Oleuropein Prevents Neuronal Death, Mitigates Mitochondrial Superoxide Production and Modulates Autophagy in a Dopaminergic Cellular Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achour, Imène; Arel-Dubeau, Anne-Marie; Renaud, Justine; Legrand, Manon; Attard, Everaldo; Germain, Marc; Martinoli, Maria-Grazia

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, primarily affecting dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. There is currently no cure for PD and present medications aim to alleviate clinical symptoms, thus prevention remains the ideal strategy to reduce the prevalence of this disease. The goal of this study was to investigate whether oleuropein (OLE), the major phenolic compound in olive derivatives, may prevent neuronal degeneration in a cellular dopaminergic model of PD, differentiated PC12 cells exposed to the potent parkinsonian toxin 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA). We also investigated OLE’s ability to mitigate mitochondrial oxidative stress and modulate the autophagic flux. Our results obtained by measuring cytotoxicity and apoptotic events demonstrate that OLE significantly decreases neuronal death. OLE could also reduce mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species resulting from blocking superoxide dismutase activity. Moreover, quantification of autophagic and acidic vesicles in the cytoplasm alongside expression of specific autophagic markers uncovered a regulatory role for OLE against autophagic flux impairment induced by bafilomycin A1. Altogether, our results define OLE as a neuroprotective, anti-oxidative and autophagy-regulating molecule, in a neuronal dopaminergic cellular model. PMID:27517912

  2. Modeling of residual stress mitigation in austenitic stainless steel pipe girth weldment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, M.; Atteridge, D.G.; Anderson, W.E. [Oregon Graduate Inst., Portland, OR (United States); West, S.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1994-03-01

    This study provides numerical procedures to model 40-cm-diameter, schedule 40, Type 304L stainless steel pipe girth welding and a newly proposed post-weld treatment. The treatment can be used to accomplish the goal of imparting compressive residual stresses at the inner surface of a pipe girth weldment to prevent/retard the intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) of the piping system in nuclear reactors. This new post-weld treatment for mitigating residual stresses is cooling stress improvement (CSI). The concept of CSI is to establish and maintain a certain temperature gradient across the pipe wall thickness to change the final stress state. Thus, this process involves sub-zero low temperature cooling of the inner pipe surface of a completed girth weldment, while simultaneously keeping the outer pipe surface at a slightly elevated temperature with the help of a certain heating method. Analyses to obtain quantitative results on pipe girth welding and CSI by using a thermo-elastic-plastic finite element model are described in this paper. Results demonstrate the potential effectiveness of CSI for introducing compressive residual stresses to prevent/retard IGSCC. Because of the symmetric nature of CSI, it shows great potential for industrial application.

  3. Models in frequency-hopping-based proactive jamming mitigation for space communication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik; Tian, Zhi

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we consider a cognitive radio based space communication system in a game-theoretical framework, where players dynamically interact through wireless channels to utilize the wideband spectrum for their objectives. The performance indices include data rate, covertness, jamming, and anti-jamming; each of which relate to an effective signal-nose-ratio (SNR). The game players have different intents and asymmetric and hierarchical information about the frequency spectrum which are modeled as three different types of players: primary users, secondary users, and hostile active jammers. We consider the informational asymmetry in two situations: (1) different information sets for friendly users and jammers and (2) even among the friendly sensors; some sensors may only have partial or little information about others due to jammed observations. Such an asymmetric information pattern naturally partitions the sensors into leaders and followers. In our hierarchical anti-jammer approach, a two level approach includes a pursuit-evasion game and a Stackelberg game. At the higher-level, a non-cooperative pursuit-evasion game is constructed to model the interactions between jammer and primary users in the frequency-location domains. At the lower level, primary and secondary users play a dynamic Stackelberg game in the presence of jammers. Theoretical game solutions are provided to demonstrate the proposed proactive jamming mitigation strategy.

  4. Watershed-Scale Modeling of Land-Use and Altered Environment Impacts on Aquatic Weed Growth in the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, David; Potter, Christopher; Zhang, Minghua

    2016-01-01

    The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, and water quality have all been suspected as playing role in the dramatic expansion of invasive aquatic plants and their impact on ecosystems of the San Francisco Bay / California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the State of California, UC Davis, and local governments have partnered under a USDA sponsored project (DRAAWP) to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plants in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Critical to developing management strategies is to understand how the Delta is affected by both the magnitude of fluctuations in land-use and climate / drought induced altered environments and how the plants respond to these altered environments. We utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed-scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds on water quality, as the backbone for a customized Delta model - Delta-SWAT. The model uses land-use, soils, elevation, and hydrologic routing to characterize pesticide and nutrient transport from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers watersheds and loading into the Delta. Land-use within the Delta, as well as water extraction to supply those functions, and the resulting return of water to Delta waterways are included in Delta-SWAT. Hydrologic transport within the Delta has required significant attention to address the lack of elevation driven transport processes. Delta-SWAT water quality trend estimates are compared with water quality monitoring conducted throughout the Delta. Aquatic plant response to water quality and other environmental factors is carried out using a customized

  5. Assessment of the consequences of the radioactive contamination of aquatic media and biota. Model testing using Chernobyl data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kryshev, I.; Sazykina, T. [SPA Typhoon, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Hoffman, O.; Thiessen, K. [SENES, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] [and others

    1996-09-01

    The 'Cooling Pond' scenario was designed to test models for radioactive contamination of aquatic ecosystems, based on data for contamination of different aquatic media and biota due to fallout of radionuclides into the cooling pond of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Input data included characteristics of the cooling pond ecosystem (hydrological, hydrochemical, and hydro biological conditions) and estimates of the amounts of 137 Cs in the cooling pond. Predictions were requested in two stages: (1) Calculations of 137 Cs concentrations for comparison against actual measurements, including activities of 137 Cs in the cooling pond water, in layers of sediment, and in fish; (2) Calculations for which actual measurements are not available, including dose and risk estimates for aquatic biota and for humans following hypothetical consumption of contaminated biota. Calculations were performed with the following models: LAKECO (Netherlands), POSOD (USA), LAKEPOND (Romania), WATER (Russia), GIDRO (Russia), and ECOMOD-W (Russia). The total number of scenario calculations was 18. In general, the models tended to overestimate the total doses to fish (as compared to to independent dose estimates made from measured concentrations by the scenario authors) for internal and external exposure, while a number of predictions with different models for the effective dose and risk to humans from fish consumption were in good agreement with independent test estimates. The differences among model predictions were somewhat smaller for the total doses to fish than for the environmental concentrations used in the model testing. The differences among model predictions were very great for the effective doses and risk to humans from fish consumption. This is related to distinct errors in assessments of 137 Cs concentrations in fish. Very few participants obtained good agreement with respect to all criteria of the model testing, i.e., 137 Cs concentrations in the aquatic ecosystem

  6. Mitigation of dense gas releases in buildings: use of simple models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deaves, D M; Gilham, S; Spencer, H

    2000-01-07

    When an accidental release of a hazardous material is considered within a safety case or risk assessment, its off-site effects are generally assessed by calculating the dispersion of vapour from the site. Although most installations handling flammables will be in the open air, many types of plant, particularly those handling toxics, are enclosed, partly to provide some form of containment and hence to mitigate the effects of any release. When such a release occurs within a building, the gas or vapour will undergo some mixing before emerging from any openings. The degree of mixing will depend upon the building geometry and the nature of the ventilation, which in turn may be modified by the leak. This situation is considered in this paper, with specific application to calculating the rate of release of a dense vapour from a building. All the calculations presented are based upon simple zone modelling, such that the region occupied by the vapour is assumed to be well mixed, and, in the isothermal case, either its concentration or its depth increases as it is fed by the gas leak. Transfer of air or gas/air mixture through the building openings is estimated by use of standard ventilation calculation methods. For the non-isothermal case, a preliminary model is presented in which it is assumed that there is complete mixing throughout the building and no wind-driven ventilation effects. A moderate release of chlorine is used as an example, and results are shown of the effects of various ventilation possibilities on the release rate to the atmosphere. In addition, comparisons are given between model results and experimental data, demonstrating the level of confidence which can be placed in the models, and also identifying areas where there is scope for further improvement.

  7. An optimization model for regional air pollutants mitigation based on the economic structure adjustment and multiple measures: A case study in Urumqi city, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiaowei; Li, Wei; Xie, Yulei; Huang, Guohe; Dong, Changjuan; Yin, Jianguang

    2016-11-01

    A model based on economic structure adjustment and pollutants mitigation was proposed and applied in Urumqi. Best-worst case analysis and scenarios analysis were performed in the model to guarantee the parameters accuracy, and to analyze the effect of changes of emission reduction styles. Results indicated that pollutant-mitigations of electric power industry, iron and steel industry, and traffic relied mainly on technological transformation measures, engineering transformation measures and structure emission reduction measures, respectively; Pollutant-mitigations of cement industry relied mainly on structure emission reduction measures and technological transformation measures; Pollutant-mitigations of thermal industry relied mainly on the four mitigation measures. They also indicated that structure emission reduction was a better measure for pollutants mitigation of Urumqi. Iron and steel industry contributed greatly in SO2, NOx and PM (particulate matters) emission reduction and should be given special attention in pollutants emission reduction. In addition, the scales of iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of SO2 mitigation amounts. The scales of traffic and electric power industry should be reduced with the decrease of NOx mitigation amounts, and the scales of cement industry and iron and steel industry should be reduced with the decrease of PM mitigation amounts. The study can provide references of pollutants mitigation schemes to decision-makers for regional economic and environmental development in the 12th Five-Year Plan on National Economic and Social Development of Urumqi.

  8. Hydrological and thermal effects of hydropeaking on early life stages of salmonids: A modelling approach for implementing mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Mulet, Roser; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Alfredsen, Knut Tore

    2016-12-15

    Alterations in hydrological and thermal regimes can potentially affect salmonid early life stages development and survival. The dewatering of salmon spawning redds due to hydropeaking can lead to mortality in early life stages, with higher impact on the alevins as they have lower tolerance to dewatering than the eggs. Flow-related mitigation measures can reduce early life stage mortality. We present a set of modelling tools to assess impacts and mitigation options to minimise the risk of mortality in early life stages in hydropeaking rivers. We successfully modelled long-term hydrological and thermal alterations and consequences for development rates. We estimated the risk of early life stages mortality and assessed the cost-effectiveness of implementing three release-related mitigation options (A,B,C). The economic cost of mitigation was low and ranged between 0.7% and 2.6% of the annual hydropower production. Options reducing the flow during spawning (B and C) in addition to only release minimum flows during development (A) were considered more effective for egg and alevin survival. Options B and C were however constraint by water availability in the system for certain years, and therefore only option A was always feasible. The set of modelling tools used in this study were satisfactory and their applications can be useful especially in systems where little field data is available. Targeted measures built on well-informed modelling tools can be tested on their effectiveness to mitigate dewatering effects vs. the hydropower system capacity to release or conserve water for power production. Environmental flow releases targeting specific ecological objectives can provide better cost-effective options than conventional operational rules complying with general legislation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Flapping Wings of an Inclined Stroke Angle: Experiments and Reduced-Order Models in Dual Aerial/Aquatic Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izraelevitz, Jacob; Triantafyllou, Michael

    2016-11-01

    Flapping wings in nature demonstrate a large force actuation envelope, with capabilities beyond the limits of static airfoil section coefficients. Puffins, guillemots, and other auks particularly showcase this mechanism, as they are able to both generate both enough thrust to swim and lift to fly, using the same wing, by changing the wing motion trajectory. The wing trajectory is therefore an additional design criterion to be optimized along with traditional aircraft parameters, and could possibly enable dual aerial/aquatic flight. We showcase finite aspect-ratio flapping wing experiments, dynamic similarity arguments, and reduced-order models for predicting the performance of flapping wings that carry out complex motion trajectories.

  10. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumblad, Linda [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology; Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-09-01

    In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment.

  11. Modelling and mitigating dose to firefighters from inhalation of radionuclides in wildland fire smoke.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viner, Brian J. [Savannah River National Laboratory, Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC

    2015-06-12

    Firefighters responding to wildland fires where surface litter and vegetation contain radiological contamination will receive a radiological dose by inhaling resuspended radioactive material in the smoke. This may increase their lifetime risk of contracting certain types of cancer. Using published data, we modelled hypothetical radionuclide emissions, dispersion and dose for 70th and 97th percentile environmental conditions and for average and high fuel loads at the Savannah River Site. We predicted downwind concentration and potential dose to firefighters for radionuclides of interest (137Cs, 238Pu, 90Sr and 210Po). Predicted concentrations exceeded dose guidelines in the base case scenario emissions of 1.0 x 107Bq ha-1 for 238Pu at 70th percentile environmental conditions and average fuel load levels for both 4- and 14-h shifts. Under 97th percentile environmental conditions and high fuel loads, dose guidelines were exceeded for several reported cases for 90Sr, 238Pu and 210Po. The potential for exceeding dose guidelines was mitigated by including plume rise (>2ms-1) or moving a small distance from the fire owing to large concentration gradients near the edge of the fire. This approach can quickly estimate potential dose from airborne radionuclides in wildland fire and assist decision-making to reduce firefighter exposure.

  12. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  13. Describing Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitats in two riceland agro-ecosystems in Mwea, Kenya using a negative binomial regression model with a non-homogenous mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Benjamin G; Griffith, Daniel; Muturi, Ephantus; Caamano, Erick X; Shililu, Josephat; Githure, John I; Novak, Robert J

    2009-01-01

    This research illustrates a geostatistical approach for modeling the spatial distribution patterns of Anopheles arabiensis Patton (Patton) aquatic habitats in two riceland environments. QuickBird 0.61 m data, encompassing the visible bands and the near-infra-red (NIR) band, were selected to synthesize images of An. arabiensis aquatic habitats. These bands and field sampled data were used to determine ecological parameters associated with riceland larval habitat development. SAS was used to calculate univariate statistics, correlations and Poisson regression models. Global autocorrelation statistics were generated in ArcGISfrom georeferenced Anopheles aquatic habitats in the study sites. The geographic distribution of Anopheles gambiae s.l. aquatic habitats in the study sites exhibited weak positive autocorrelation; similar numbers of log-larval count habitats tend to clustered in space. Individual rice land habitat data were further evaluated in terms of their covariations with spatial autocorrelation, by regressing them on candidate spatial filter eigenvectors. Each eigenvector generated from a geographically weighted matrix, for both study sites, revealed a distinctive spatial pattern. The spatial autocorrelation components suggest the presence of roughly 14-30% redundant information in the aquatic habitat larval count samples. Synthetic map pattern variables furnish a method of capturing spatial dependency effects in the mean response term in regression analyses of rice land An. arabiensis aquatic habitat data.

  14. Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Miller, Scott; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Archer, Erik; Roper, Brett B.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of

  15. A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.; Jones, Scott M.

    2017-01-01

    Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the

  16. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  17. Investigation of Orbital Debris: Mitigation, Removal, and Modeling the Debris Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotten, Joel

    The population of objects in orbit around Earth has grown since the late 1950s. Today there are over 21,000 objects over 10 cm in length in orbit, and an estimated 500,000 more between 1 and 10 cm. Only a small fraction of these objects are operational satellites. The rest are debris: old derelict spacecraft or rocket bodies, fragments created as the result of explosions or collisions, discarded objects, slag from solid rockets, or even flaked off paint. Traveling at up to 7 km/s, a collision with even a 1 cm piece of debris could severely damage or destroy a satellite. This dissertation examines three aspects of orbital debris. First, the concept of a self-consuming satellite is explored. This nanosatellite would use its own external structure as propellant to execute a deorbit maneuver at the end of its operational life, thus allowing it to meet current debris mitigation standards. Results from lab experiments examining potential materials for this concept have shown favorable results. Second, Particle in Cell techniques are modified and used to model the plasma plume from a micro-cathode arc thruster. This model is then applied to the concept of an ion beam shepherd satellite. This satellite would use its plasma plume to deorbit another derelict satellite. Results from these simulations indicate the micro-cathode arc thruster could potentially deorbit a derelict CubeSat in a matter of a few weeks. Finally, the orbital debris population at geosynchronous orbit is examined, focusing on variations in the density of the population as a function of longitude. New insights are revealed demonstrating that the variation in population density is slightly less than previously reported.

  18. Minding the Cyber-Physical Gap: Model-Based Analysis and Mitigation of Systemic Perception-Induced Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordecai, Yaniv; Dori, Dov

    2017-07-17

    The cyber-physical gap (CPG) is the difference between the 'real' state of the world and the way the system perceives it. This discrepancy often stems from the limitations of sensing and data collection technologies and capabilities, and is inevitable at some degree in any cyber-physical system (CPS). Ignoring or misrepresenting such limitations during system modeling, specification, design, and analysis can potentially result in systemic misconceptions, disrupted functionality and performance, system failure, severe damage, and potential detrimental impacts on the system and its environment. We propose CPG-Aware Modeling & Engineering (CPGAME), a conceptual model-based approach to capturing, explaining, and mitigating the CPG. CPGAME enhances the systems engineer's ability to cope with CPGs, mitigate them by design, and prevent erroneous decisions and actions. We demonstrate CPGAME by applying it for modeling and analysis of the 1979 Three Miles Island 2 nuclear accident, and show how its meltdown could be mitigated. We use ISO-19450:2015-Object Process Methodology as our conceptual modeling framework.

  19. Prediction of the environmental fate and aquatic ecological impact of nitrobenzene in the Songhua River using the modified AQUATOX model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI Bingli; HUANG Shengbiao; QIAO Min; LI Tianyun; WANG Zijian

    2008-01-01

    An accidental discharge of nitrobenzene happened in November 2005 in the Songhuajiang River, China. The AQUATOX model was modified and adapted to simulate the time-dependent nitrobenzene distribution in this multimedia aquatic system and its potential ecological impacts. Nitrobenzene concentrations in flowing water, sediment, and biota were predicted. Based on the initial concentrations of nitrobenzene observed on the field during the accidental discharge, that is, 0.167-1.47 mg/L at different river segments, the predicted water concentrations of nitrobenzene would decrease to 0.02 and 0.002 mg/L after twenty days and one month, respectively. Both model prediction and field observation were in good agreement. The predicted nitrobenzene concentrations in sediments and aquatic organisms would be lower than 0.025 and 0.002 mg/kg, respectively, after two months. Among environmental factors affecting nitrobenzene concentrations in water, inflow water dilution, water temperature, and initial concentration were the most important, by sensitivity analysis. Comparing the perturbed simulation and control simulation, the biomass changes for diatoms and mussel were significantly affected, whereas, no influence on other organisms could be predicted. Therefore the results indicated that nitrobenzene pollution in the Songhuajiang River should have a limited impact on the benthos community.

  20. Mercury cycling in aquatic ecosystems and trophic state-related variables--implications from structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollman, Curtis D

    2014-11-15

    Structural equation modeling (SEM) provides a framework that can more properly handle complex variable interactions inherent in mercury cycling and its bioaccumulation compared to more traditional regression-based methods. SEM was applied to regional data sets for three different types of aquatic ecosystems within Florida, USA--lakes, streams, and the Everglades--to evaluate the underlying nature (i.e., indirect and direct) of the relationships between fish mercury concentrations and trophic state related variables such as nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), sulfate, and alkalinity. The modeling results indicated some differences in key variable relationships--for example, the effect of nutrients on fish mercury in lakes and streams was uniformly negative through direct and indirect pathways consistent with biodilution or eutrophication-associated effects on food web structure. Somewhat surprisingly, however, was that total phosphorus did not serve as a meaningful variable in the Everglades model, apparently because its effects were masked or secondary to the effects of DOC. What is perhaps a more important result were two key similarities across the three systems. First, the modeling clearly indicates that the dominant influence on fish tissue mercury concentrations in all three systems is related to variations in the methylmercury signal. Second, the modeling demonstrated that the effect of DOC on fish mercury concentrations was exerted through multiple and antagonistic pathways, including facilitated transport of total mercury and methylmercury, enhanced rates of methylation, and limitations imposed on bioavailability. Indeed, while the individual DOC pathways in the models were all highly significant (generally pmodel was greatly reduced or insignificant. These results can help explain contradictory results obtained previously by other researchers in other systems, and illustrate the importance of SEM as a modeling tool when studying systems with complex

  1. Assessment of Dissolved Oxygen Mitigation at Hydropower Dams Using an Integrated Hydrodynamic/Water Quality/Fish Growth Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bevelhimer, Mark S [ORNL; Coutant, Charles C [ORNL

    2006-07-01

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) in rivers is a common environmental problem associated with hydropower projects. Approximately 40% of all FERC-licensed projects have requirements to monitor and/or mitigate downstream DO conditions. Most forms of mitigation for increasing DO in dam tailwaters are fairly expensive. One area of research of the Department of Energy's Hydropower Program is the development of advanced turbines that improve downstream water quality and have other environmental benefits. There is great interest in being able to predict the benefits of these modifications prior to committing to the cost of new equipment. In the case of turbine replacement or modification, there is a need for methods that allow us to accurately extrapolate the benefits derived from one or two turbines with better design to the replacement or modification of all turbines at a site. The main objective of our study was to demonstrate a modeling approach that integrates the effects of flow and water quality dynamics with fish bioenergetics to predict DO mitigation effectiveness over long river segments downstream of hydropower dams. We were particularly interested in demonstrating the incremental value of including a fish growth model as a measure of biological response. The models applied are a suite of tools (RMS4 modeling system) originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority for simulating hydrodynamics (ADYN model), water quality (RQUAL model), and fish growth (FISH model) as influenced by DO, temperature, and available food base. We parameterized a model for a 26-mile reach of the Caney Fork River (Tennessee) below Center Hill Dam to assess how improvements in DO at the dam discharge would affect water quality and fish growth throughout the river. We simulated different types of mitigation (i.e., at the turbine and in the reservoir forebay) and different levels of improvement. The model application successfully demonstrates how a modeling approach like this one can be

  2. Development of a biologically inspired multi-modal wing model for aerial-aquatic robotic vehicles through empirical and numerical modelling of the common guillemot, Uria aalge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lock, Richard J; Vaidyanathan, Ravi; Burgess, Stuart C [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Bristol Robotics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TR (United Kingdom); Loveless, John, E-mail: richard.lock@bristol.ac.u, E-mail: s.c.burgess@bristol.ac.u, E-mail: r.vaidyanathan@bristol.ac.u, E-mail: rvaidyan@nps.ed, E-mail: J.Loveless@bristol.ac.u [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TR (United Kingdom)

    2010-12-15

    The common guillemot, Uria aalge, a member of the auk family of seabirds exhibits locomotive capabilities in both aerial and aquatic substrates. Simplistic forms of this ability have yet to be achieved by robotic vehicle designs and offer significant potential as inspiration for future concept designs. In this investigation, we initially investigate the power requirements of the guillemot associated with different modes of locomotion, empirically determining the saving associated with the retraction of the wing during aquatic operations. A numerical model of a morphing wing is then created to allow power requirements to be determined for different wing orientations, taking into account the complex kinematic and inertial dynamics associated with the motion. Validation of the numerical model is achieved by comparisons with the actual behaviour of the guillemot, which is done by considering specific mission tasks, where by the optimal solutions are found utilizing an evolutionary algorithm, which are found to be in close agreement with the biological case.

  3. Nutrient dynamics, transfer and retention along the aquatic continuum from land to ocean: towards integration of ecological and biogeochemical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Bouwman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In river basins, soils, groundwater, riparian zones and floodplains, streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs act as successive filters in which the hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing are strongly coupled and together act to retain a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. This paper compares existing river ecology concepts with current approaches to describe river biogeochemistry, and assesses the value of these concepts and approaches for understanding the impacts of interacting global change disturbances on river biogeochemistry. Through merging perspectives, concepts, and modeling techniques, we propose integrated model approaches that encompass both aquatic and terrestrial components in heterogeneous landscapes. In this model framework, existing ecological and biogeochemical concepts are extended with a balanced approach for assessing nutrient and sediment delivery, on the one hand, and nutrient in-stream retention on the other hand.

  4. Challenges in understanding, modelling, and mitigating Lake Outburst Flood Hazard: experiences from Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian; Andres, Norina; Worni, Raphael; Gruber, Fabian; Schneider, Jean F.

    2010-05-01

    Lake Outburst Floods can evolve from complex process chains like avalanches of rock or ice that produce flood waves in a lake which may overtop and eventually breach glacial, morainic, landslide, or artificial dams. Rising lake levels can lead to progressive incision and destabilization of a dam, to enhanced ground water flow (piping), or even to hydrostatic failure of ice dams which can cause sudden outflow of accumulated water. These events often have a highly destructive potential because a large amount of water is released in a short time, with a high capacity to erode loose debris, leading to a powerful debris flow with a long travel distance. The best-known example of a lake outburst flood is the Vajont event (Northern Italy, 1963), where a landslide rushed into an artificial lake which spilled over and caused a flood leading to almost 2000 fatalities. Hazards from the failure of landslide dams are often (not always) fairly manageable: most breaches occur in the first few days or weeks after the landslide event and the rapid construction of a spillway - though problematic - has solved some hazardous situations (e.g. in the case of Hattian landslide in 2005 in Pakistan). Older dams, like Usoi dam (Lake Sarez) in Tajikistan, are usually fairly stable, though landsildes into the lakes may create floodwaves overtopping and eventually weakening the dams. The analysis and the mitigation of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard remains a challenge. A number of GLOFs resulting in fatalities and severe damage have occurred during the previous decades, particularly in the Himalayas and in the mountains of Central Asia (Pamir, Tien Shan). The source area is usually far away from the area of impact and events occur at very long intervals or as singularities, so that the population at risk is usually not prepared. Even though potentially hazardous lakes can be identified relatively easily with remote sensing and field work, modeling and predicting of GLOFs (and also

  5. Mitigation of urban heat stress – a modelling case study for the area of Stuttgart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fallmann, Joachim

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2050 the fraction of urban global population will increase to over 69%, which means that around 6.3 billion people are expected to live in urban areas (UN 2011. Cities are the predominant habitation places for humans to live and are vulnerable to extreme weather events aggravating phenomena like heat stress. Finding mitigation strategies to sustain future development is of great importance, given expected influences on human health. In this study, the mesoscale numerical model WRF is used on a regional scale for the urban area of Stuttgart, to simulate the effect of urban planning strategies on dynamical processes affecting urban climate. After comparing two urban parameterisation schemes, a sensitivity study for different scenarios is performed; it shows that a change of the reflective properties of surfaces has the highest impact on near-surface temperatures compared to an increase of urban green areas or a decrease of building density. The Urban Heat Island (UHI describes the temperature difference between urban and rural temperatures; it characterises regional urban climate and is responsible for urban-rural circulation patterns. Applying urban planning measures may decrease the intensity of the UHI in the study area by up to 2 °C by using heat-reflective roof paints or by 1 °C through replacing impervious surfaces by natural vegetation in the urban vicinity – compared to a value of 2.5 °C for the base case. Because of its topographical location in a valley and the overall high temperatures in this region, the area of Stuttgart suffers from heat stress to a comparatively large extent.

  6. Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Fumanelli

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

  7. Ranking current and prospective NO2 pollution mitigation strategies: An environmental and economic modelling investigation in Oxford Street, London.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanjean, A P R; Gallagher, J; Monks, P S; Leigh, R J

    2017-03-21

    Air pollution continues to be a problem in the urban environment. A range of different pollutant mitigation strategies that promote dispersion and deposition exist, but there is little evidence with respect to their comparative performance from both an environmental and economic perspective. This paper focuses on examining different NO2 mitigation strategies such as trees, buildings facades coated with photocatalytic paint and solid barriers in Oxford Street in London. The case study findings will support ranking the environmental and economic impacts of these different strategies to improve personal exposure conditions on the footpath and on the road in a real urban street canyon. CFD simulations of airflow and NO2 dispersion in Oxford Street in London were undertaken using the OpenFOAM software platform with the k-ε model, taking into account local prevailing wind conditions. Trees are shown to be the most cost-effective strategy, with a small reduction in NO2 concentrations of up to 0.7% on the road. However, solid barriers with and without the application of photocatalytic paint and an innovative material (20 times more expensive than trees) can improve air quality on the footpaths more substantially, up to 7.4%, yet this has a significant detrimental impact on NO2 concentrations (≤23.8%) on the road. Photocatalytic paint on building surfaces presented a minimal environmental reductions (1.2%) and economic (>100 times more expensive than trees) mitigation strategy. The findings recognised the differences between footpath and road concentrations occurred and that a focused examination of three pollution hotspots can provide more cost effective pollution mitigation. This study considers how a number of pollutant mitigation measures can be applied in a single street canyon and demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of these strategies from economic and environmental perspectives. Further research is required to extrapolate the findings presented here to

  8. Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat-mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Mortelliti, Alessio; Kay, Geoffrey M; Florance, Daniel; Lindenmayer, David

    2016-08-01

    Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics-information that is lacking in most threat-management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird-population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch-colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat-mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.

  9. A review of farm level modelling approaches for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant livestock systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schils, R.L.M.; Olesen, J.E.; Prado, del A.; Soussana, J.F.

    2007-01-01

    Ruminant livestock systems contribute to global warming through the emission of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). This paper discusses a general framework for a whole-farm approach to develop cost-effective GHG mitigation strategies. A dairy farm is a complex system with d

  10. Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

  11. Jaguars on the move: modeling movement to mitigate fragmentation from road expansion in the Mayan Forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colchero, Fernando; Conde, Dalia Amor; Manterola, Carlos

    2011-01-01

    Road-induced habitat fragmentation is one of the greatest threats to large carnivores. Wildlife passes have been used to reduce fragmentation by mitigating the effects of roads as barriers to animal movement. However, direct observations of animals crossing roads are extremely rare and thus...

  12. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  13. Transport and fate of radionuclides in aquatic environments--the use of ecosystem modelling for exposure assessments of nuclear facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumblad, L; Kautsky, U; Naeslund, B

    2006-01-01

    In safety assessments of nuclear facilities, a wide range of radioactive isotopes and their potential hazard to a large assortment of organisms and ecosystem types over long time scales need to be considered. Models used for these purposes have typically employed approaches based on generic reference organisms, stylised environments and transfer functions for biological uptake exclusively based on bioconcentration factors (BCFs). These models are of non-mechanistic nature and involve no understanding of uptake and transport processes in the environment, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. In this paper, ecosystem models are suggested as a method to include site-specific data and to facilitate the modelling of dynamic systems. An aquatic ecosystem model for the environmental transport of radionuclides is presented and discussed. With this model, driven and constrained by site-specific carbon dynamics and three radionuclide specific mechanisms: (i) radionuclide uptake by plants, (ii) excretion by animals, and (iii) adsorption to organic surfaces, it was possible to estimate the radionuclide concentrations in all components of the modelled ecosystem with only two radionuclide specific input parameters (BCF for plants and Kd). The importance of radionuclide specific mechanisms for the exposure to organisms was examined, and probabilistic and sensitivity analyses to assess the uncertainties related to ecosystem input parameters were performed. Verification of the model suggests that this model produces analogous results to empirically derived data for more than 20 different radionuclides.

  14. Developing the aquatic-coupled reservoir model to simulate carbon dioxide emission from a young boreal hydroelectric reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Roulet, N. T.; Strachan, I. B.; Tremblay, A.

    2013-12-01

    We developed a process-based biogeochemical reservoir model, called AF-DNDC (Aquatic-coupled Forest-DNDC), to project carbon (C) flux from water surface of a recently created hydro-electric reservoir that flooded a boreal landscape. The basis of the reservoir model is Forest-DNDC, a biogeochemical model for C and nitrogen cycling in forests and wetlands. AF-DNDC was developed by coupling a lake C model to a flooded version of Forest-DNDC. AF-DNDC includes the C cycling through the aquatic carbon pools, such as DIC (dissolved inorganic C), DOC (dissolved organic C), and planktonic community as well as C exchange between air, water, and sediment. AF-DNDC was used to examine the net change in carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the surface and the atmosphere over the first seven years post flooding of the Eastmain-1 reservoir in northern Quebec. With present day climate and environmental conditions, simulated daily CO2 emissions from the flooded forest averaged 1.69 g C m-2 d-1 (range 0 to 20.49), and from the flooded peatland averaged 0.87 g C m-2 d-1 (range 0 to 6.86). Simulated CO2 emissions decreased with the age of reservoir. They were larger than eddy-covariance measured CO2 fluxes from the water surface over flooded forests, but compared well to the eddy-covariance fluxes during the open-water period. The simulated emissions were significantly correlated with the measured fluxes from the flooded forest (r2 = 0.33; p < 0.01) and flooded peatland (r2 = 0.41; p < 0.01). The patterns over the year were similar. AF-DNDC is suitable for use to assess the major changes in CO2 exchange due to the creation of reservoirs in boreal regions.

  15. Epoxyeicosatrienoic acid analogue mitigates kidney injury in a rat model of radiation nephropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hye Khan, Md Abdul; Fish, Brian; Wahl, Geneva; Sharma, Amit; Falck, John R; Paudyal, Mahesh P; Moulder, John E; Imig, John D; Cohen, Eric P

    2016-04-01

    Arachidonic acid is metabolized to epoxyeicosatrienoic acids (EETs) by CYP epoxygenases, and EETs are kidney protective in multiple pathologies. We determined the ability of an EET analogue, EET-A, to mitigate experimental radiation nephropathy. The kidney expression of the EET producing enzyme CYP2C11 was lower in rats that received total body irradiation (TBI rat) compared with non-irradiated control. At 12 weeks after TBI, the rats had higher systolic blood pressure and impaired renal afferent arteriolar function compared with control, and EET-A or captopril mitigated these abnormalities. The TBI rats had 3-fold higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN) compared with control, and EET-A or captopril decreased BUN by 40-60%. The urine albumin/creatinine ratio was increased 94-fold in TBI rats, and EET-A or captopril attenuated that increase by 60-90%. In TBI rats, nephrinuria was elevated 30-fold and EET-A or captopril decreased it by 50-90%. Renal interstitial fibrosis, tubular and glomerular injury were present in the TBI rats, and each was decreased by EET-A or captopril. We further demonstrated elevated renal parenchymal apoptosis in TBI rats, which was mitigated by EET-A or captopril. Additional studies revealed that captopril or EET-A mitigated renal apoptosis by acting on the p53/Fas/FasL (Fas ligand) apoptotic pathway. The present study demonstrates a novel EET analogue-based strategy for mitigation of experimental radiation nephropathy by improving renal afferent arteriolar function and by decreasing renal apoptosis.

  16. Hungry Horse Mitigation Plan; Fisheries Mitigation Plan for Losses Attributable to the Construction and Operation of Hungry Horse Dam, 1990-2003 Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraley, John J.; Marotz, Brian L. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Helena, MT); DosSantos, Joseph M. (Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes of the Flathead Nation, Pablo, MT)

    2003-04-01

    In this document we present fisheries losses, mitigation alternatives, and recommendations to protect, mitigate, and enhance resident fish and aquatic habitat affected by the construction and operation of Hungry Horse Dam. This plan addresses six separate program measures in the 1987 Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program. We designed the plan to be closely coordinated in terms of dam operations, funding, and activities with the Kerr Mitigation Plan presently before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. This document represents a mitigation plan for consideration by the Northwest Power Planning Council process; it is not an implementation plan. Flathead Lake is one of the cleanest lakes of its size in the world. The exceptional water quality and unique native fisheries make the Flathead Lake/River system extremely valuable to the economy and quality of life in the basin. The recreational fishery in Flathead Lake has an estimated value of nearly eight million dollars annually. This mitigation process represents our best opportunity to reduce the impacts of hydropower in this valuable aquatic system and increase angling opportunity. We based loss estimates and mitigation alternatives on an extensive data base, agency reports, nationally and internationally peer-reviewed scientific articles, and an innovative biological model for Hungry Horse Reservoir and the Flathead River. We conducted an extensive, 14-month scoping and consultation process with agency representatives, representatives of citizen groups, and the general public. This consultation process helped identify issues, areas of agreement, areas of conflict, and advantages and disadvantages of mitigation alternatives. The results of the scoping and consultation process helped shape our mitigation plan. Our recommended plan is based firmly on principles of adaptive management and recognition of biological uncertainty. After we receive direction from the NPPC, we will add more detailed hypotheses and

  17. Scenario Analysis on Global Hydropower Development Paths and Their Contribution to GHG Mitigation Utilizing a Dynamic CGE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Z.; Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for 16% of the worldwide electricity power supply and 86% of the total renewable electricity energy source due to its low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and relatively high reliability. It is well known that the global hydropower has not yet been fully developed, but the future paths of development and corresponding contribution to GHG mitigation in each region combined with socioeconomic activities are less known. Here we investigated following three questions. How much will hydropower generation increase in the future? Will hydropower generation reach the economically exploitable capability (EEC)? If this will be the case, when and where will it occur? How much GHG emission will be reduced by adding new hydropower? In order to address these questions, we used the AIM/CGE model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantify the global hydropower development paths and corresponding GHG mitigation contribution for 17 regions in the world associated with a socio-economic scenario termed SSP2. We compared two scenarios with different assumptions on EEC. One is BAU which takes EEC from the report of "World Energy Resources", the other is FIX_BAU which fix EEC at the current hydropower generation amount throughout the research period (2005-2100) or no additional installation of hydropower plants. The comparison between two scenarios indicated that promoting hydropower development contributed to GHG emission reduction globally but the magnitude varied by region. For example we found that in North Africa, hydropower development grew fast because of the rapid economic development, but it reached EEC as soon as in 2040 because of limitation in EEC due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Conversely, in Brazil, it grew steadily and did not reach its abundant EEC. Consequently, GHG mitigation contribution of North Africa is far less than Brazil. This research provides important information for policy makers to

  18. Evaluation of CADASTER QSAR models for the aquatic toxicity of (benzo)triazoles and prioritisation by consensus prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassani, Stefano; Kovarich, Simona; Papa, Ester; Roy, Partha Pratim; Rahmberg, Magnus; Nilsson, Sara; Sahlin, Ullrika; Jeliazkova, Nina; Kochev, Nikolay; Pukalov, Ognyan; Tetko, Igor; Brandmaier, Stefan; Durjava, Mojca Kos; Kolar, Boris; Peijnenburg, Willie; Gramatica, Paola

    2013-03-01

    QSAR regression models of the toxicity of triazoles and benzotriazoles ([B]TAZs) to an alga (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata), Daphnia magna and a fish (Onchorhynchus mykiss), were developed by five partners in the FP7-EU Project, CADASTER. The models were developed by different methods - Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Bayesian regularised regression and Associative Neural Network (ASNN) - by using various molecular descriptors (DRAGON, PaDEL-Descriptor and QSPR-THESAURUS web). In addition, different procedures were used for variable selection, validation and applicability domain inspection. The predictions of the models developed, as well as those obtained in a consensus approach by averaging the data predicted from each model, were compared with the results of experimental tests that were performed by two CADASTER partners. The individual and consensus models were able to correctly predict the toxicity classes of the chemicals tested in the CADASTER project, confirming the utility of the QSAR approach. The models were also used for the prediction of aquatic toxicity of over 300 (B)TAZs, many of which are included in the REACH pre-registration list, and were without experimental data. This highlights the importance of QSAR models for the screening and prioritisation of untested chemicals, in order to reduce and focus experimental testing. 2013 FRAME.

  19. Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajac, Zuzanna; Stith, Bradley; Bowling, Andrea C; Langtimm, Catherine A; Swain, Eric D

    2015-07-01

    Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust

  20. Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajac, Zuzanna; Stith, Bradley M.; Bowling, Andrea C.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Swain, Eric D.

    2015-01-01

    Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust

  1. Blast wave mitigation by dry aqueous foam: numerical modelling and experimental investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counilh, Denis; Ballanger, Felix; Rambert, Nicolas; Haas, Jean-Francois; Chinnayya, Aschwin; Lefrancois, Alexandre

    2016-11-01

    Dry aqueous foams (two-phase media with water liquid fraction lower than 5%) are known to mitigate blast wave effects induced by an explosion. The CEA has calibrated his numerical multiphase code MOUSSACA from shock tube and high-explosive experiments. The shock tube experiments have highlighted the foam fragmentation into droplets and the momentum transfer between the liquid and gas phases of the foam. More recently, experiments with hemispheric explosive charges from 3 g to 120 g have provided more findings about the pressure and impulse mitigation properties of foams. We have also taken into account the heat and mass transfer, as well as the droplets secondary breakup, characterized by the Weber number, ratio of inertia over surface tension. Good agreement is found between the calculation and the experiments. co-supervisor of the Felix Ballanger 's doctoral thesis.

  2. Horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands for mitigation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-12-22

    Dec 22, 2008 ... The feasibility of using constructed wetlands (CWs) for the mitigation of pesticide runoff has been studied in the last decade. ... Aquatic acute toxicity ... Determination of process efficiency based on the mass of ametryn ...

  3. Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: a multi-model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Veysey, J.; Octaviano, C.; K. Calvin; Herreras Martinez, S.; Kitous, A; McFarland, J; Zwaan, van der, B.C.C.

    2015-01-01

    Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic mo...

  4. Optimization Model for Mitigating Global Warming at the Farm Scale: An Application to Japanese Rice Farms

    OpenAIRE

    Kiyotaka Masuda

    2016-01-01

    In Japan, greenhouse gas emissions from rice production, especially CH4 emissions in rice paddy fields, are the primary contributors to global warming from agriculture. When prolonged midseason drainage for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields is practiced with environmentally friendly rice production based on reduced use of synthetic pesticides and chemical fertilizers, Japanese rice farmers can receive an agri-environmental direct payment. This paper examines the economic and env...

  5. Use of regression-based models to map sensitivity of aquatic resources to atmospheric deposition in Yosemite National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clow, David W.; Nanus, Leora; Huggett, Brian

    2010-01-01

    An abundance of exposed bedrock, sparse soil and vegetation, and fast hydrologic flushing rates make aquatic ecosystems in Yosemite National Park susceptible to nutrient enrichment and episodic acidification due to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). In this study, multiple linear regression (MLR) models were created to estimate fall-season nitrate and acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in surface water in Yosemite wilderness. Input data included estimated winter N deposition, fall-season surface-water chemistry measurements at 52 sites, and basin characteristics derived from geographic information system layers of topography, geology, and vegetation. The MLR models accounted for 84% and 70% of the variance in surface-water nitrate and ANC, respectively. Explanatory variables (and the sign of their coefficients) for nitrate included elevation (positive) and the abundance of neoglacial and talus deposits (positive), unvegetated terrain (positive), alluvium (negative), and riparian (negative) areas in the basins. Explanatory variables for ANC included basin area (positive) and the abundance of metamorphic rocks (positive), unvegetated terrain (negative), water (negative), and winter N deposition (negative) in the basins. The MLR equations were applied to 1407 stream reaches delineated in the National Hydrography Data Set for Yosemite, and maps of predicted surface-water nitrate and ANC concentrations were created. Predicted surface-water nitrate concentrations were highest in small, high-elevation cirques, and concentrations declined downstream. Predicted ANC concentrations showed the opposite pattern, except in high-elevation areas underlain by metamorphic rocks along the Sierran Crest, which had relatively high predicted ANC (>200 μeq L-1). Maps were created to show where basin characteristics predispose aquatic resources to nutrient enrichment and acidification effects from N and S deposition. The maps can be used to help guide development of

  6. Photobiomodulation with near infrared light mitigates Alzheimer's disease-related pathology in cerebral cortex - evidence from two transgenic mouse models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purushothuman, Sivaraman; Johnstone, Daniel M; Nandasena, Charith; Mitrofanis, John; Stone, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Previous work has demonstrated the efficacy of irradiating tissue with red to infrared light in mitigating cerebral pathology and degeneration in animal models of stroke, traumatic brain injury, parkinsonism and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Using mouse models, we explored the neuroprotective effect of near infrared light (NIr) treatment, delivered at an age when substantial pathology is already present in the cerebral cortex. We studied two mouse models with AD-related pathologies: the K369I tau transgenic model (K3), engineered to develop neurofibrillary tangles, and the APPswe/PSEN1dE9 transgenic model (APP/PS1), engineered to develop amyloid plaques. Mice were treated with NIr 20 times over a four-week period and histochemistry was used to quantify AD-related pathological hallmarks and other markers of cell damage in the neocortex and hippocampus. In the K3 mice, NIr treatment was associated with a reduction in hyperphosphorylated tau, neurofibrillary tangles and oxidative stress markers (4-hydroxynonenal and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine) to near wildtype levels in the neocortex and hippocampus, and with a restoration of expression of the mitochondrial marker cytochrome c oxidase in surviving neurons. In the APP/PS1 mice, NIr treatment was associated with a reduction in the size and number of amyloid-β plaques in the neocortex and hippocampus. Our results, in two transgenic mouse models, suggest that NIr may have potential as an effective, minimally-invasive intervention for mitigating, and even reversing, progressive cerebral degenerations.

  7. Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, J E; Rotz, C A

    2013-06-01

    The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.

  8. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  9. A multiple testing approach for hazard evaluation of complex mixtures in the aquatic environment: the use of diesel oil as a model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. Thomas

    1989-01-01

    Traditional single species toxicity tests and multiple component laboratory-scaled microcosm assays were combined to assess the toxicological hazard of diesel oil, a model complex mixture, to a model aquatic environment. The immediate impact of diesel oil dosed on a freshwater community was studied in a model pond microcosm over 14 days: a 7-day dosage and a 7-day recovery period. A multicomponent laboratory microcosm was designed to monitor the biological effects of diesel oil (1·0 mg litre−1) on four components: water, sediment (soil + microbiota), plants (aquatic macrophytes and algae), and animals (zooplanktonic and zoobenthic invertebrates). To determine the sensitivity of each part of the community to diesel oil contamination and how this model community recovered when the oil dissipated, limnological, toxicological, and microbiological variables were considered. Our model revealed these significant occurrences during the spill period: first, a community production and respiration perturbation, characterized in the water column by a decrease in dissolved oxygen and redox potential and a concomitant increase in alkalinity and conductivity; second, marked changes in microbiota of sediments that included bacterial heterotrophic dominance and a high heterotrophic index (0·6), increased bacterial productivity, and the marked increases in numbers of saprophytic bacteria (10 x) and bacterial oil degraders (1000 x); and third, column water acutely toxic (100% mortality) to two model taxa: Selenastrum capricornutum and Daphnia magna. Following the simulated clean-up procedure to remove the oil slick, the recovery period of this freshwater microcosm was characterized by a return to control values. This experimental design emphasized monitoring toxicological responses in aquatic microcosm; hence, we proposed the term ‘toxicosm’ to describe this approach to aquatic toxicological hazard evaluation. The toxicosm as a valuable toxicological tool for screening

  10. Integration of aquatic fate and ecological responses to linear alkyl benzene sulfonate (LAS) in model stream ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belanger, S E; Bowling, J W; Lee, D M; LeBlanc, E M; Kerr, K M; McAvoy, D C; Christman, S C; Davidson, D H

    2002-06-01

    An integrated model stream ecosystem fate and effect study of dodecyl linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (C(12)LAS) was performed in the summer and fall of 1996. The study addressed responses of periphytic microbes, immature benthic fauna including abundance, drift, and emergence of adult insects in a 56-day exposure. Exposures ranged from 126 to 2978 microg/L and were continuously presented in a single-pass, flow-through test system. Microbial heterotrophs acclimated to C(12)LAS exposure quickly (14 days) and biodegraded C(12)LAS at all concentrations. Blue-green algae responded by increasing in abundance with increasing C(12)LAS concentration. Invertebrates responded by increased drift and reduced benthic abundances at concentrations exceeding 293 microg/L. Emergence at 927 microg/L also declined relative to the control. Adverse responses for mayflies and chironomids were indicated using univariate statistical techniques. Multivariate techniques indicated these taxa plus mollusks, aquatic worms, caddisflies, and stoneflies were impaired at some concentrations. Bioavailability of C(12)LAS was investigated in streams as a function of the total suspended solid load in the water column driven by local weather and watershed patterns. A continuous bioavailability model indicated exposure was reduced by an average of 8.5+/-8.9%. A model ecosystem no-observed-effect concentration (NOEC) was concluded to be 293 microg/L based on measured water column exposure and adjusted to 268 microg/L by the bioavailability model. A literature review of 13 available model ecosystem studies was conducted and NOEC conclusions were adjusted by a structure-activity relationship to a dodecyl chain length (sulfophenyl position and distribution being ignored due to lack of information in the reviewed studies). Lentic studies (n=7) were found to have higher NOECs than lotic studies (n=6) and were more variable. Mean NOECs+/-SD for all studies, lentic studies only, and lotic studies only were 3320

  11. Predicting toxic effects of copper on aquatic biota in mineralized areas by using the Biotic Ligand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.; Ranville, James F.; Adams, M.; Choate, LaDonna M.; Church, Stan E.; Fey, David L.; Wanty, Richard B.; Crock, James G.

    2006-01-01

    The chemical speciation of metals influences their biological effects. The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) is a computational approach to predict chemical speciation and acute toxicological effects of metals on aquatic biota. Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency incorporated the BLM into their regulatory water-quality criteria for copper. Results from three different laboratory copper toxicity tests were compared with BLM predictions for simulated test-waters. This was done to evaluate the ability of the BLM to accurately predict the effects of hardness and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron on aquatic toxicity. In addition, we evaluated whether the BLM and the three toxicity tests provide consistent results. Comparison of BLM predictions with two types of Ceriodaphnia dubia toxicity tests shows that there is fairly good agreement between predicted LC50 values computed by the BLM and LC50 values determined from the two toxicity tests. Specifically, the effect of increasing calcium concentration (and hardness) on copper toxicity appears to be minimal. Also, there is fairly good agreement between the BLM and the two toxicity tests for test solutions containing elevated DOC, for which the LC50 is 3-to-5 times greater (less toxic) than the LC50 for the lower-DOC test water. This illustrates the protective effects of DOC on copper toxicity and demonstrates the ability of the BLM to predict these protective effects. In contrast, for test solutions with added iron there is a decrease in LC50 values (increase in toxicity) in results from the two C. dubia toxicity tests, and the agreement between BLM LC50 predictions and results from these toxicity tests is poor. The inability of the BLM to account for competitive iron binding to DOC or DOC fractionation may be a significant shortcoming of the BLM for predicting site- specific water-quality criteria in streams affected by iron-rich acidic drainage in mined and mineralized areas.

  12. How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

    2016-01-01

    This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also

  13. Physical modeling of long-wave run-up mitigation using submerged breakwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Ting; Wu, Yun-Ta; Hwung, Hwung-Hweng; Yang, Ray-Yeng

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazard due to tsunami inundation inland has been viewed as a crucial issue for coastal engineering community. The 2004 India Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami were caused by mega scale earthquakes that brought tremendous catastrophe in the disaster regions. It is thus of great importance to develop innovative approach to achieve the reduction and mitigation of tsunami hazards. In this study, new experiments have been carried out in a laboratory-scale to investigate the physical process of long-wave through submerged breakwaters built upon a mild slope. Solitary-wave is employed to represent the characteristic of long-wave with infinite wavelength and wave period. Our goal is twofold. First of all, through changing the positions of single breakwater and multiple breakwaters upon a mild slope, the optimal locations of breakwaters can be pointed out by means of maximum run-up reduction. Secondly, through using a state-of-the-art measuring technique Bubble Image Velocimetry, which features non-intrusive and image-based measurement, the wave kinematics in the highly aerated region due to solitary-wave shoaling, breaking and uprush can be quantitated. Therefore, the mitigation of long-wave due to the construction of submerged breakwaters built upon a mild slope can be evaluated not only for imaging run-up and run-down characteristics but also for measuring turbulent velocity fields due to breaking wave. Although we understand the most devastating tsunami hazards cannot be fully mitigated with impossibility, this study is to provide quantitated information on what kind of artificial coastal structure that can withstand which level of wave loads.

  14. Predicting and Mitigating Outbreaks of Vector-Borne Disease Utilizing Satellite Remote Sensing Technology and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Sue M.

    2009-01-01

    The Public Health application area focuses on Earth science applications to public health and safety, particularly regarding infectious disease, emergency preparedness and response, and environmental health issues. The application explores issues of toxic and pathogenic exposure, as well as natural and man-made hazards and their effects, for risk characterization/mitigation and improvements to health and safety. The program elements of the NASA Applied Sciences Program are: Agricultural Efficiency, Air Quality, Climate, Disaster Management, Ecological Forecasting, Water Resources, Weather, and Public Health.

  15. Fish species of greatest conservation need in wadeable Iowa streams: current status and effectiveness of Aquatic Gap Program distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sindt, Anthony R.; Pierce, Clay; Quist, Michael C.

    2012-01-01

    Effective conservation of fish species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) requires an understanding of species–habitat relationships and distributional trends. Thus, modeling the distribution of fish species across large spatial scales may be a valuable tool for conservation planning. Our goals were to evaluate the status of 10 fish SGCN in wadeable Iowa streams and to test the effectiveness of Iowa Aquatic Gap Analysis Project (IAGAP) species distribution models. We sampled fish assemblages from 86 wadeable stream segments in the Mississippi River drainage of Iowa during 2009 and 2010 to provide contemporary, independent fish species presence–absence data. The frequencies of occurrence in stream segments where species were historically documented varied from 0.0% for redfin shiner Lythrurus umbratilis to 100.0% for American brook lampreyLampetra appendix, with a mean of 53.0%, suggesting that the status of Iowa fish SGCN is highly variable. Cohen's kappa values and other model performance measures were calculated by comparing field-collected presence–absence data with IAGAP model–predicted presences and absences for 12 fish SGCN. Kappa values varied from 0.00 to 0.50, with a mean of 0.15. The models only predicted the occurrences of banded darterEtheostoma zonale, southern redbelly dace Phoxinus erythrogaster, and longnose daceRhinichthys cataractae more accurately than would be expected by chance. Overall, the accuracy of the twelve models was low, with a mean correct classification rate of 58.3%. Poor model performance probably reflects the difficulties associated with modeling the distribution of rare species and the inability of the large-scale habitat variables used in IAGAP models to explain the variation in fish species occurrences. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the confidence in species distribution model predictions with an independent data set and the need for long-term monitoring to better understand the

  16. Stream classification of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River System to support modeling of aquatic habitat response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Caroline M.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Freeman, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    A stream classification and associated datasets were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin to support biological modeling of species response to climate change in the southeastern United States. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of the Interior’s National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center established the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) which used downscaled general circulation models to develop landscape-scale assessments of climate change and subsequent effects on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the southeastern United States. The SERAP aquatic and hydrologic dynamics modeling efforts involve multiscale watershed hydrology, stream-temperature, and fish-occupancy models, which all are based on the same stream network. Models were developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin and subbasins in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and for the Upper Roanoke River Basin in Virginia. The stream network was used as the spatial scheme through which information was shared across the various models within SERAP. Because these models operate at different scales, coordinated pair versions of the network were delineated, characterized, and parameterized for coarse- and fine-scale hydrologic and biologic modeling. The stream network used for the SERAP aquatic models was extracted from a 30-meter (m) scale digital elevation model (DEM) using standard topographic analysis of flow accumulation. At the finer scale, reaches were delineated to represent lengths of stream channel with fairly homogenous physical characteristics (mean reach length = 350 m). Every reach in the network is designated with geomorphic attributes including upstream drainage basin area, channel gradient, channel width, valley width, Strahler and Shreve stream order, stream power, and measures of stream confinement. The reach network was aggregated from tributary junction to tributary junction to define segments for the

  17. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  18. The persistence of subsistence: qualitative social-ecological modeling of indigenous aquatic hunting and gathering in tropical Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Barber

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Subsistence remains critical to indigenous people in settler-colonial states such as Australia, providing key foundations for indigenous identities and for wider state recognition. However, the drivers of contemporary subsistence are rarely fully articulated and analyzed in terms of likely changing conditions. Our interdisciplinary team combined past research experience gained from multiple sites with published literature to create two generalized qualitative models of the socio-cultural and environmental influences on indigenous aquatic subsistence in northern Australia. One model focused on the longer term (inter-year to generational persistence of subsistence at the community scale, the other model on shorter term (day to season drivers of effort by active individuals. The specification of driver definitions and relationships demonstrates the complexities of even generalized and materialist models of contemporary subsistence practices. The qualitative models were analyzed for emergent properties and for responses to plausible changes in key variables: access, habitat degradation, social security availability, and community dysfunction. Positive human community condition is shown to be critical to the long-term persistence of subsistence, but complex interactions of negative and positive drivers shape subsistence effort expended at the individual scale and within shorter time frames. Such models enable motivations, complexities, and the potential management and policy levers of significance to be identified, defined, causally related, and debated. The models can be used to augment future models of human-natural systems, be tested against case-specific field conditions and/or indigenous perspectives, and aid preliminary assessments of the effects on subsistence of changes in social and environmental conditions, including policy settings.

  19. Predicting the aquatic stage sustainability of a restored backwater channel combining in-situ and airborne remotely sensed bathymetric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jérôme, Lejot; Jérémie, Riquier; Hervé, Piégay

    2014-05-01

    As other large river floodplain worldwide, the floodplain of the Rhône has been deeply altered by human activities and infrastructures over the last centuries both in term of structure and functioning. An ambitious restoration plan of selected by-passed reaches has been implemented since 1999, in order to improve their ecological conditions. One of the main action aimed to increase the aquatic areas in floodplain channels (i.e. secondary channels, backwaters, …). In practice, fine and/or coarse alluvium were dredged, either locally or over the entire cut-off channel length. Sometimes the upstream or downstream alluvial plugs were also removed to reconnect the restored feature to the main channel. Such operation aims to restore forms and associated habitats of biotic communities, which are no more created or maintained by the river itself. In this context, assessing the sustainability of such restoration actions is a major issue. In this study, we focus on 1 of the 24 floodplain channels which have been restored along the Rhône River since 1999, the Malourdie channel (Chautagne reach, France). A monitoring of the geomorphologic evolution of the channel has been conducted during a decade to assess the aquatic stage sustainability of this former fully isolated channel, which has been restored as a backwater in 2004. Two main types of measures were performed: (a) water depth and fine sediment thickness were surveyed with an auger every 10 m along the channel centerline in average every year and a half allowing to establish an exponential decay model of terrestrialization rates through time; (b) three airborne campaigns (2006, 2007, 2012) by Ultra Aerial Vehicle (UAV) provided images from which bathymetry were inferred in combination with observed field measures. Coupling field and airborne models allows us to simulate different states of terrestrialization at the scale of the whole restore feature (e.g. 2020/2030/2050). Raw results indicate that terrestrialization

  20. Optimization Model for Mitigating Global Warming at the Farm Scale: An Application to Japanese Rice Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyotaka Masuda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In Japan, greenhouse gas emissions from rice production, especially CH4 emissions in rice paddy fields, are the primary contributors to global warming from agriculture. When prolonged midseason drainage for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields is practiced with environmentally friendly rice production based on reduced use of synthetic pesticides and chemical fertilizers, Japanese rice farmers can receive an agri-environmental direct payment. This paper examines the economic and environmental effects of the agri-environmental direct payment on the adoption of a measure to mitigate global warming in Japanese rice farms using a combined application of linear programming and life cycle assessment at the farm scale. Eco-efficiency, which is defined as net farm income divided by global warming potential, is used as an integrated indicator for assessing the economic and environmental feasibilities. The results show that under the current direct payment level, the prolonged midseason drainage technique does not improve the eco-efficiency of Japanese rice farms because the practice of this technique in environmentally friendly rice production causes large economic disadvantages in exchange for small environmental advantages. The direct payment rates for agri-environmental measures should be determined based on the condition that environmentally friendly agricultural practices improve eco-efficiency compared with conventional agriculture.

  1. Modeling and simulation of induction motor drive system to investigate and mitigate of PWM inverter' s adverse effects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ESMAELI Abdolreza; SUN Li

    2007-01-01

    Modeling and simulation of induction motor drive system to investigate and mitigate the adverse effects of PWM inverter based on analysis, modeling and simulation are presented. The estimation of conducted disturbances and other adverse effects of PWM inverter by simulation offer a considerable gain from the economic point of view. For an accurate model of the motor drive system including mains, rectifier, inverter, motor and its long cables, the high frequency parasitic current paths are taken into account. The novel model and its parasitic values for three-phase induction motor system are presented. Finally a new solution for suppressing EMI, common mode voltage, leakage current, bearing current and shaft voltages is proposed and the results show the excellent performances of proposed solution including active and passive filters.

  2. Parameterization of aquatic ecosystem functioning and its natural variation: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plankton food web dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede

    2017-10-01

    Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.

  3. Modeling nexus of urban heat island mitigation strategies with electricity/power usage and consumer costs: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Humberto; Fillpot, Baron S.

    2016-11-01

    A reduction in both power and electricity usage was determined using a previously validated zero-dimensional energy balance model that implements mitigation strategies used to reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The established model has been applied to show the change in urban characteristic temperature when executing four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values. Separately, a correlation analysis was performed involving meteorological data and total daily energy (TDE) consumption where the 24-h average temperature was shown to have the greatest correlation to electricity service data in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan region. A methodology was then developed for using the model to predict TDE consumption reduction and corresponding cost-saving analysis when implementing the four mitigation strategies. The four modeled UHI mitigation strategies, taken in combination, would lead to the largest percent reduction in annual energy usage, where increasing the thermal conductivity is the single most effective mitigation strategy. The single least effective mitigation strategy, increasing the emissivity by 5% from the baseline value, resulted in an average calculated reduction of about 1570 GWh in yearly energy usage with a corresponding 157 million dollar cost savings. When the four parameters were increased in unison by 20% from baseline values, an average calculated reduction of about 2050 GWh in yearly energy usage was predicted with a corresponding 205 million dollar cost savings.

  4. Recent developments of surface complexation models applied to environmental aquatic chemistry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on numerous latest references, the current developments in surface complexation, surface precipitation and the corresponding models (SCMs and SPMs), were reviewed. The contents involved comparison on surface charge composition and layer-structure of solid-solution interface for the classical 1-pK and 2- pK models, In addition, the fundamental concept and relations of the new models, i.e., multi-site complexation (MUSIC) and charge -distribution (CD) MUSIC models were described as well. To avoid misuse or abuse, it must be emphasized that the applicability nd limitation for each model should be considered carefully when selecting the concerned model(s). In addition, some new powerful techniques for surface characterization and analysis applied to model establishment and modification were also briefly introduced.

  5. Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knäbel, Anja; Scheringer, Martin; Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2016-04-05

    Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling.

  6. The use of models in the analysis and management of aquatic and terrestrial animal production systems.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Machiels, M.A.M.; Udo, H.M.J.; Densen, van W.L.T.

    1994-01-01

    Modelling of animal production systems as a whole is mainly used for extensively managed systems, such as fishing and hunting natural animal populations. This type of modelling is widely used in fisheries management, but has as yet found limited application in the modelling of extensive cultivation

  7. Modelling and mitigating refractive propagation effects in precision pulsar timing observations

    CERN Document Server

    Shannon, R M

    2016-01-01

    To obtain the most accurate pulse arrival times from radio pulsars, it is necessary to correct or mitigate the effects of the propagation of radio waves through the warm and ionised interstellar medium. We examine both the strength of propagation effects associated with large-scale electron-density variations and the methodology used to estimate infinite-frequency arrival times. Using simulations of two-dimensional phase-varying screens, we assess the strength and non-stationarity of timing perturbations associated with large-scale density variations. We identify additional contributions to arrival times that are stochastic in both radio frequency and time and therefore not amenable to correction solely using times of arrival. We attribute this to the frequency dependence of the trajectories of the propagating radio waves. We find that this limits the efficacy of low-frequency (metre-wavelength) observations. Incorporating low-frequency pulsar observations into precision timing campaigns is increasingly probl...

  8. Modeling Changes in Bed Surface Texture and Aquatic Habitat Caused by Run-of-River Hydropower Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, T. K.; Venditti, J. G.; Nelson, P. A.; Popescu, V.; Palen, W.

    2014-12-01

    Run-of-river (RoR) hydropower has emerged as an important alternative to large reservoir-based dams in the renewable energy portfolios of China, India, Canada, and other areas around the globe. RoR projects generate electricity by diverting a portion of the channel discharge through a large pipe for several kilometers downhill where it is used to drive turbines before being returned to the channel. Individual RoR projects are thought to be less disruptive to local ecosystems than large hydropower because they involve minimal water storage, more closely match the natural hydrograph downstream of the project, and are capable of bypassing trapped sediment. However, there is concern that temporary sediment supply disruption may degrade the productivity of salmon spawning habitat downstream of the dam by causing changes in the grain size distribution of bed surface sediment. We hypothesize that salmon populations will be most susceptible to disruptions in sediment supply in channels where; 1) sediment supply is high relative to transport capacity prior to RoR development, and 2) project design creates substantial sediment storage volume. Determining the geomorphic effect of RoR development on aquatic habitat requires many years of field data collection, and even then it can be difficult to link geomorphic change to RoR development alone. As an alternative, we used a one-dimensional morphodynamic model to test our hypothesis across a range of pre-development sediment supply conditions and sediment storage volumes. Our results confirm that coarsening of the median surface grain-size is greatest in cases where pre-development sediment supply was highest and sediment storage volumes were large enough to disrupt supply over the course of the annual hydrograph or longer. In cases where the pre-development sediment supply is low, coarsening of the median surface grain-size is less than 2 mm over a multiple-year disruption period. When sediment supply is restored, our results

  9. Daphnia as a model organism in limnology and aquatic biology: some aspects of its reproduction and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Petrusek

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Invertebrates comprise the overwhelming majority of all animal species - around 95% of described species, not including substantial cryptic variation. As it is an extremely diverse and heterogeneous group, research on various invertebrate taxa often follows parallel trajectories, with little interaction among experts on different groups. To promote sharing of knowledge within as well as across taxa, the International Society of Invertebrate Reproduction and Development (ISIRD was established in 1975 in Calicut, India. Since that time, the ISIRD has organised international conferences at three-year intervals where various aspects of invertebrate biology are presented and discussed, naturally with the focus on reproduction and development. Traditionally, marine invertebrate groups have been well represented at all ISIRD congresses, but freshwater invertebrates have often been relatively overlooked at these meetings. The 12th ISIRD congress took place between August 16 and 20, 2010 in Prague, the Czech Republic. Several different Czech institutions collaborated on the organisation of this meeting. As aquatic invertebrate research has a long tradition in the country, we decided to include a section dedicated to popular model organisms in aquatic ecology and evolutionary biology, the "water fleas", cladocerans of the genus Daphnia. The section entitled "Daphnia and other cladocerans as model organisms" was open to any aspects of cladoceran biology directly or indirectly related to their reproduction or development. Unfortunately, the timing of the Prague congress completely overlapped the triennial congress of the International Society of Theoretical and Applied Limnology (SIL in Cape Town, South Africa. This large meeting in a very attractive setting attracted many cladocerologists from all over the world, including Europe. Therefore, the Daphnia section of the Prague ISIRD meeting remained moderate in size, attracting 13 contributions (eight talks

  10. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

  11. The Impact of Albedo Increase to Mitigate the Urban Heat Island in Terni (Italy Using the WRF Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Morini

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of the urban heat island (UHI phenomenon on energy consumption, air quality, and human health have been widely studied and described. Mitigation strategies have been developed to fight the UHI and its detrimental consequences. A potential countermeasure is the increase of urban albedo by using cool materials. Cool materials are highly reflective materials that can maintain lower surface temperatures and thus can present an effective solution to mitigate the UHI. Terni’s proven record of high temperatures along with related environmental and comfort issues in its urban areas have reflected the local consequences of global warming. On the other hand, it promoted integrated actions by the government and research institutes to investigate solutions to mitigate the UHI effects. In this study, the main goal is to investigate the effectiveness of albedo increase as a strategy to tackle the UHI, by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale model to simulate the urban climate of Terni (Italy. Three different scenarios through a summer heat wave in the summer of 2015 are analyzed. The Base Scenario, which simulates the actual conditions of the urban area, is the control case. In the Albedo Scenario (ALB Scenario, the albedo of the roof, walls and road of the whole urban area is increased. In the Albedo-Industrial Scenario (ALB-IND Scenario, the albedo of the roof, walls and road of the area occupied by the main industrial site of Terni, located in close proximity to the city center, is increased. The simulation results show that the UHI is decreased up to 2 °C both at daytime and at nighttime in the ALB and in ALB-IND Scenarios. Peak temperatures in the urban area can be decreased by 1 °C at daytime, and by about 2 °C at nighttime. Albedo increase in the area of interest might thus represent an opportunity to decrease the UHI effect and its consequences.

  12. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  13. Conceptual model for improving the link between exposure and effects in the aquatic risk assessment of pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Köpp, H.; Adriaanse, P.I.; Brock, T.C.M.; Forbes, V.E.

    2007-01-01

    Assessment of risks to aquatic organisms is important in the registration procedures for pesticides in industrialised countries. This risk assessment consists of two parts: (i) assessment of effects to these organisms derived from ecotoxicological experiments (=effect assessment), and (ii) assessmen

  14. Developing Seasonal Spectral Signature Models to Accurately Assess Indicators of Aquatic Health: Algal Succession and Water Quality

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Aquatic health is the number one issue to be addressed in the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan. Malheur Lake is the number one...

  15. MOAtox: A Comprehensive Mode of Action and Acute Aquatic Toxicity Database for Predictive Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    tThe mode of toxic action (MOA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity andas an alternative to chemical class-based predictive toxicity modeling. However, the development ofquantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and other models has been limite...

  16. Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baveco, H.; Norman, S.; Roessink, I.; Galic, N.G.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a

  17. Multispecies QSAR modeling for predicting the aquatic toxicity of diverse organic chemicals for regulatory toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kunwar P; Gupta, Shikha; Kumar, Anuj; Mohan, Dinesh

    2014-05-19

    The research aims to develop multispecies quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) modeling tools capable of predicting the acute toxicity of diverse chemicals in various Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recommended test species of different trophic levels for regulatory toxicology. Accordingly, the ensemble learning (EL) approach based classification and regression QSAR models, such as decision treeboost (DTB) and decision tree forest (DTF) implementing stochastic gradient boosting and bagging algorithms were developed using the algae (P. subcapitata) experimental toxicity data for chemicals. The EL-QSAR models were successfully applied to predict toxicities of wide groups of chemicals in other test species including algae (S. obliguue), daphnia, fish, and bacteria. Structural diversity of the selected chemicals and those of the end-point toxicity data of five different test species were tested using the Tanimoto similarity index and Kruskal-Wallis (K-W) statistics. Predictive and generalization abilities of the constructed QSAR models were compared using statistical parameters. The developed QSAR models (DTB and DTF) yielded a considerably high classification accuracy in complete data of model building (algae) species (97.82%, 99.01%) and ranged between 92.50%-94.26% and 92.14%-94.12% in four test species, respectively, whereas regression QSAR models (DTB and DTF) rendered high correlation (R(2)) between the measured and model predicted toxicity end-point values and low mean-squared error in model building (algae) species (0.918, 0.15; 0.905, 0.21) and ranged between 0.575 and 0.672, 0.18-0.51 and 0.605-0.689 and 0.20-0.45 in four different test species. The developed QSAR models exhibited good predictive and generalization abilities in different test species of varied trophic levels and can be used for predicting the toxicities of new chemicals for screening and prioritization of chemicals for regulation.

  18. Modeling of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) using WRF - Assessment of adaptation and mitigation strategies for the city of Stuttgart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Suppan, Peter; Emeis, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    Cities are warmer than their surroundings (called urban heat island, UHI). UHI influence urban atmospheric circulation, air quality, and ecological conditions. UHI leads to upward motion and compensating near-surface inflow from the surroundings which import rural trace substances. Chemical and aerosol formation processes are modified due to increased temperature, reduced humidity and modified urban-rural trace substance mixtures. UHIs produce enhanced heat stress for humans, animals and plants, less water availability and modified air quality. Growing cities and Climate Change will aggravate the UHI and its effects and urgently require adaptation and mitigation strategies. Prior to this, UHI properties must be assessed by surface observations, ground- and satellite-based vertical remote sensing and numerical modelling. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is an instrument to simulate and assess this phenomenon based on boundary conditions from observations and global climate models. Three urbanization schemes are available with WRF, which are tested during this study for different weather conditions in central Europe and will be enhanced if necessary. High resolution land use maps are used for this modeling effort. In situ measurements and Landsat thermal images are employed for validation of the results. The study will focus on the city of Stuttgart located in the south western part of Germany that is situated in a caldera-like orographic feature. This municipality has a long tradition in urban climate research and thus is well equipped with climatologic measurement stations. By using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), it is possible to simulate several scenarios for different surface properties. By increasing the albedo of roof and wall layers in the urban canopy model or by replacing urban land use by natural vegetation, simple urban planning strategies can be tested and the effect on urban heat island formation and air quality can be

  19. Using Data-Dependent Priors to Mitigate Small Sample Bias in Latent Growth Models: A Discussion and Illustration Using M"plus"

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    Mixed-effects models (MEMs) and latent growth models (LGMs) are often considered interchangeable save the discipline-specific nomenclature. Software implementations of these models, however, are not interchangeable, particularly with small sample sizes. Restricted maximum likelihood estimation that mitigates small sample bias in MEMs has not been…

  20. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; van der Veer, Henk W.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

    2011-11-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years' project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability within the context of DEB theory for metabolic organisation, and (ii) to evaluate the inter-relationships between different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). AquaDEB phase I focussed on quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species ( e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) and phase II on: (i) comparing of energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and identifying the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; (ii) considering different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) scaling up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes. Apart from the three special issues in the Journal of Sea Research — including the DEBIB collaboration (see vol. 65 issue 2), a theme issue on DEB theory appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (vol 365, 2010); a large number of publications were produced; the third edition of the DEB book appeared (2010); open-source software was substantially expanded (over 1000 functions); a large open-source systematic collection of ecophysiological data and DEB parameters has been set up; and a series of DEB

  1. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

  2. Element transport in aquatic ecosystems – Modelling general and element-specific mechanisms

    OpenAIRE

    Konovalenko, Lena

    2014-01-01

    Radionuclides are widely used in energy production and medical, military and industrial applications. Thus, understanding the behaviour of radionuclides which have been or may be released into ecosystems is important for human and environmental risk assessment. Modelling of radionuclides or their stable element analogues is the only tool that can predict the consequences of accidental release. In this thesis, two dynamic stochastic compartment models for radionuclide/element transfer in a mar...

  3. Advantages of toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic modelling in aquatic ecotoxicology and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashauer, Roman; Escher, Beate I

    2010-11-01

    Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) models simulate the processes that lead to toxicity at the level of organisms over time. These dynamic simulation models quantify toxicity, but more importantly they also provide a conceptual framework to better understand the causes for variability in different species' sensitivity to the same compound as well as causes for different toxicity of different compounds to the same species. Thus TK-TD models bring advantages for very diverse ecotoxicological questions as they can address two major challenges: the large number of species that are potentially affected and the large number of chemicals of concern. The first important benefit of TK-TD models is the role that they can play to formalize established knowledge about toxicity of compounds, sensitivity of organisms, organism recovery times and carry-over toxicity. The second important aspect of TK-TD models is their ability to simulate temporal aspects of toxicity which makes them excellent extrapolation tools for risk assessment of fluctuating or pulsed exposures to pollutants. We provide a general introduction to the concept of TK-TD modelling for environmental scientists and discuss opportunities as well as current limitations.

  4. An integrated modelling methodology to study the impacts of nutrients on coastal aquatic ecosystems in the context of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesce, Marco; Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Santini, Monia; Giubilato, Elisa; Pizzol, Lisa; Mercogliano, Paola; Zirino, Alberto; Wei, Ouyang; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    It has been recognized that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) due to anthropogenic activities is causing changes in Earth's climate. Global mean temperatures are expected to rise by 0.3 to 4.8 °C by the end of the 21st century, and the water cycle to alter because of changes in global atmospheric moisture. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons together with the ecological and socio-economic services they provide, could be among those most affected by the ongoing changes on climate. Because of their position at the land-sea interface, they are subjected to the combined changes in the physico-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their climate and environmental drivers, such as temperature, precipitation, wind, solar radiation and nutrient loadings, and to exacerbate the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for predicting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. In this context, the integration of climate scenarios and environmental models can become a valuable tool for the investigation and prediction of phytoplankton ecosystem dynamics under climate change conditions. In the last decade, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution of nutrients and the resulting effects on aquatic ecosystems encouraged the conduction of modeling studies at a catchment scale, even though mainly are related to lake ecosystem. The further development of integrated modeling approaches and their application to other types of waterbodies such as coastal waters can be a useful contribution to increase the availability of management tools for ecological conservation and adaptation policies. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin

  5. Effect of a levee setback on aquatic resources using two-dimensional flow and bioenergetics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Robert W.; Czuba, Christiana R.; Magirl, Christopher S.; McCarthy, Sarah; Berge, Hans; Comanor, Kyle

    2016-04-05

    Watershed restoration is the focus of many resource managers and can include a multitude of restoration actions each with specific restoration objectives. For the White River flowing through the cities of Pacific and Sumner, Washington, a levee setback has been proposed to reconnect the river with its historical floodplain to help reduce flood risks, as well as provide increased habitat for federally listed species of salmonids. The study presented here documents the use of a modeling framework that integrates two-dimensional hydraulic modeling with process-based bioenergetics modeling for predicting how changes in flow from reconnecting the river with its floodplain affects invertebrate drift density and the net rate of energy intake of juvenile salmonids. Modeling results were calculated for flows of 25.9 and 49.3 cubic meters per second during the spring, summer, and fall. Predicted hypothetical future mean velocities and depths were significantly lower and more variable when compared to current conditions. The abundance of low energetic cost and positive growth locations for salmonids were predicted to increase significantly in the study reach following floodplain reconnection, particularly during the summer. This modeling framework presents a viable approach for evaluating the potential fisheries benefits of reconnecting a river to its historical floodplain that integrates our understanding of hydraulic, geomorphology, and organismal biology.

  6. Modeling and Simulation of Custom Power Devices to Mitigate Power Quality Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Devaraju,

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A Power quality problem is an occurrence manifested as a nonstandard voltage, current or frequency that results in a failure or a misoperation of end use Equipments. Utility distribution networks, sensitive industrial loads, and critical commercial operations all suffer from various types of outages and service interruptions which can cost significant financial 1oss per incident based on process down-time, lost production, idle work forces, and other factors. With the restructuring of Power Systems and with shifting trend towards distributed and dispersed Generation, the issue of Power Quality is going to take newer dimensions. The aim therefore, in this work, is to identify the prominent concerns in the area and thereby to recommend measures that can enhance the quality of the power, keeping in mind their economic viability and technical repercussions. In this paper ectromagnetic transient studies are presented for the following two custom power controllers: the distribution static compensator (D-STATCOM, and the dynamic voltage restorer (DVR. Comprehensive results are presented to assess the performance of each device to mitigate the power quality problems.

  7. Modelling and mitigating refractive propagation effects in precision pulsar timing observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, R. M.; Cordes, J. M.

    2017-01-01

    To obtain the most accurate pulse arrival times from radio pulsars, it is necessary to correct or mitigate the effects of the propagation of radio waves through the warm and ionized interstellar medium. We examine both the strength of propagation effects associated with large-scale electron-density variations and the methodology used to estimate infinite frequency arrival times. Using simulations of two-dimensional phase-varying screens, we assess the strength and non-stationarity of timing perturbations associated with large-scale density variations. We identify additional contributions to arrival times that are stochastic in both radio frequency and time and therefore not amenable to correction solely using times of arrival. We attribute this to the frequency dependence of the trajectories of the propagating radio waves. We find that this limits the efficacy of low-frequency (metre-wavelength) observations. Incorporating low-frequency pulsar observations into precision timing campaigns is increasingly problematic for pulsars with larger dispersion measures.

  8. Modelling the Release, Transport and Fate of Engineered Nanoparticles in the Aquatic Environment - A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Adriaan A; Parsons, John R; Roex, Erwin W M; de Voogt, Pim; Laane, Remi W P M

    Engineered nanoparticles, that is, particles of up to 100 nm in at least one dimension, are used in many consumer products. Their release into the environment as a consequence of their production and use has raised concern about the possible consequences. While they are made of ordinary substances, their size gives them properties that are not manifest in larger particles. It is precisely these properties that make them useful. For instance titanium dioxide nanoparticles are used in transparent sunscreens, because they are large enough to scatter ultraviolet light but too small to scatter visible light.To investigate the occurrence of nanoparticles in the environment we require practical methods to detect their presence and to measure the concentrations as well as adequate modelling techniques. Modelling provides both a complement to the available detection and measurement methods and the means to understand and predict the release, transport and fate of nanoparticles. Many different modelling approaches have been developed, but it is not always clear for what questions regarding nanoparticles in the environment these approaches can be applied. No modelling technique can be used for every possible aspect of the release of nanoparticles into the environment. Hence it is important to understand which technique to apply in what situation. This article provides an overview of the techniques involved with their strengths and weaknesses. Two points need to be stressed here: the modelling of processes like dissolution and the surface activity of nanoparticles, possibly under influence of ultraviolet light, or chemical transformation has so far received relatively little attention. But also the uncertainties surrounding nanoparticles in general-the amount of nanoparticles used in consumer products, what constitutes the appropriate measure of concentration (mass or numbers) and what processes are relevant-should be explicitly considered as part of the modelling.

  9. Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.

    2016-02-01

    We present a carbon-cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.

  10. Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available

  11. Improving communication and validation of ecological models : a case study on the dispersal of aquatic macroinvertebrates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augusiak, Jacqueline A.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, ecological effect models have been put forward as tools for supporting environmental decision-making. Often they are the only way to take the relevant spatial and temporal scales and the multitude of processes characteristic to ecological systems into account. Particularly for

  12. Improving communication and validation of ecological models : a case study on the dispersal of aquatic macroinvertebrates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augusiak, Jacqueline A.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, ecological effect models have been put forward as tools for supporting environmental decision-making. Often they are the only way to take the relevant spatial and temporal scales and the multitude of processes characteristic to ecological systems into account. Particularly for envir

  13. QSAR models for predicting in vivo aquatic toxicity of chlorinated alkanes to fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zvinavashe, E.; Berg, H. van den; Soffers, A.E.M.F.; Vervoort, J.; Freidig, A.; Murk, A.J.; Rietjens, I.M.C.M.

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are expected to play a crucial role in reducing the number of animals to be used for toxicity testing resulting from the adoption of the new European Union chemical control system called Registration, Evaluation, and Authorization of Chemica

  14. Biological factors underlying regularity and chaos in aquatic ecosystems: Simple models of complex dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A B Medvinsky; S V Petrovskii; D A Tikhonov; I A Tikhonova; G R Ivanitsky; E Venturino; H Malchow

    2001-03-01

    This work is focused on the processes underlying the dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous plankton communities. We demonstrate that reaction—diffusion mathematical models are an appropriate tool for searching and understanding basic mechanisms of complex spatio-temporal plankton dynamics and fractal properties of planktivorous fish school walks.

  15. Two dose-estimation models CSA-N288.1 and Nureg 1.109, 1.113 - compared for chronic aquatic releases from nuclear facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Sheppard, S C; Peterson, S R

    2000-01-01

    Both the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US-NRC) have published guidelines for the calculation of doses to the public due to emissions from nuclear facilities. In the sale of CANDU reactors overseas, either of these guidelines may be used as part of the approval process in the recipient country. This study compares the aquatic exposure pathways described in the guidelines. These include direct consumption of contaminated water and food, and exposure to contaminated sediments. The CSA and US-NRC guidelines for estimating dilution of aquatic emissions are of a general nature and the choice of model used to quantify dilution is left to the user. The models prescribed for the different exposure pathways by these two regulatory guides are similar in many attributes. Many of the recommended parameter values are identical and many of the formulations are either identical, or become identical under general conditions. However, despite these similarities, there...

  16. Modeling Microbial Biogeochemistry from Terrestrial to Aquatic Ecosystems Using Trait-Based Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, E.; Molins, S.; Karaoz, U.; Johnson, J. N.; Bouskill, N.; Hug, L. A.; Thomas, B. C.; Castelle, C. J.; Beller, H. R.; Banfield, J. F.; Steefel, C. I.; Brodie, E.

    2014-12-01

    Currently, there is uncertainty in how climate or land-use-induced changes in hydrology and vegetation will affect subsurface carbon flux, the spatial and temporal distribution of flow and transport, biogeochemical cycling, and microbial metabolic activity. Here we focus on the initial development of a Genome-Enabled Watershed Simulation Capability (GEWaSC), which provides a predictive framework for understanding how genomic information stored in a subsurface microbiome affects biogeochemical watershed functioning, how watershed-scale processes affect microbial function, and how these interactions co-evolve. This multiscale framework builds on a hierarchical approach to multiscale modeling, which considers coupling between defined microscale and macroscale components of a system (e.g., a catchment being defined as macroscale and biogeofacies as microscale). Here, we report our progress in the development of a trait-based modeling approach within a reactive transport framework that simulates coupled guilds of microbes. Guild selection is driven by traits extracted from, and physiological properties inferred from, large-scale assembly of metagenome data. Meta-genomic, -transcriptomic and -proteomic information are also used to complement our existing biogeochemical reaction networks and contributes key reactions where biogeochemical analyses are unequivocal. Our approach models the rate of nutrient uptake and the thermodynamics of coupled electron donors and acceptors for a range of microbial metabolisms including heterotrophs and chemolitho(auto)trophs. Metabolism of exogenous substrates fuels catabolic and anabolic processes, with the proportion of energy used for each based upon dynamic intracellular and environmental conditions. In addition to biomass development, anabolism includes the production of key enzymes, such as nitrogenase for nitrogen fixation or exo-enzymes for the hydrolysis of extracellular polymers. This internal resource partitioning represents a

  17. Aquatic Nutrient Simulation Modules (NSMs) Developed for Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    chlorophyll-a, dry weight, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen, respectively. The colony forming unit (CFU) is a measure of viable bacterial ...procedure measures photosynthetic pigment common to all types of algae. The second and third approaches measure the carbon in a filtered water sample. Both... pigment content (for example, chlorophyll-a). Benthic algae are modeled in terms of density per unit bottom area (g-D/m2). The change of benthic algae

  18. Identification of model structure for aquatic ecosystems using regionalized sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osidele, O O; Beck, M B

    2001-01-01

    The Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) was developed in 1978, for identifying critical unknown processes in poorly defined systems, thus directing the focus of further scientific investigations. Here, we demonstrate its application to model structure identification, by ranking the constituent hypotheses and identifying the critical elements for progressive revision of the model. Our case study is Lake Oglethorpe--a small monomictic impoundment in South-eastern Georgia, USA. Recent studies indicate that the warm temperate regional climate affords an extended growing season--typically from March to October--which promotes bacterial productivity in the lake. The result is a summer food web dominated by microbial processes, in contrast to the conventional phytoplankton-dominated food chains typically observed in the cold temperate lakes of Europe and North America. Starting with a simple phytoplankton-based food web model and a qualitative definition of system behaviour, we use the RSA procedure to establish the critical role of bacteria-mediated decomposition in Lake Oglethorpe, thus justifying the inclusion of microbial processes. Further analysis reveals the importance of size-dependent selective consumption of phytoplankton and bacteria. Finally, we discuss important practical implications of this novel application of the RSA regarding sampling efficiency and statistical robustness.

  19. The first draft genome of the aquatic model plant Lemna minor opens the route for future stress physiology research and biotechnological applications

    OpenAIRE

    Van Hoeck, Arne; Horemans, Nele; Monsieurs, Pieter; Cao, Hieu Xuan; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Blust, Ronny

    2015-01-01

    Background Freshwater duckweed, comprising the smallest, fastest growing and simplest macrophytes has various applications in agriculture, phytoremediation and energy production. Lemna minor, the so-called common duckweed, is a model system of these aquatic plants for ecotoxicological bioassays, genetic transformation tools and industrial applications. Given the ecotoxic relevance and high potential for biomass production, whole-genome information of this cosmopolitan duckweed is needed. Resu...

  20. Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurakis, Eugene G

    2010-10-01

    Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.

  1. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

    2012-01-01

    Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

  2. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

  3. Assessing bioaccumulation of polybrominated diphenyl ethers for aquatic species by QSAR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansouri, Kamel; Consonni, Viviana; Durjava, Mojca Kos; Kolar, Boris; Öberg, Tomas; Todeschini, Roberto

    2012-10-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are used as flame retardants in textiles, foams and plastics. Highly bioaccumulative with toxic effects including developmental neurotoxicity estrogen and thyroid hormones disruption, they are considered as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and have been found in human tissues, wildlife and biota worldwide. But only some of them are banned from EU market. For the environmental fate studies of these compounds the bioconcentration factor (BCF) is one of the most important endpoints to start with. We applied quantitative structure-activity relationships techniques to overcome the limited experimental data and avoid more animal testing. The aim of this work was to assess the bioaccumulation of PBDEs by means of QSAR. First, a BCF dataset of specifically conducted experiments was modeled. Then the study was extended by predicting the bioaccumulation and biomagnification factors using some experimental values from the literature. Molecular descriptors were calculated using DRAGON 6. The most relevant ones were selected and resulting models were compared paying attention to the applicability domain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Kober, Tom; Calderon, Silvia; Clarke, Leon; Daenzer, Katie; Kitous, Alban; Labriet, Maryse; Lucena, André F. P.; Octaviano, Claudia; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050.Wefind that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of

  5. Characterization modelling of aquatic ecotoxicity from metal emission to be applied in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan

    on bioavailability. However, ecotoxicity of several metals that commonly appear in Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) have not yet been characterized in freshwater by the novel method. Ecotoxicity CF in marine ecosystem has received even less attention. In the previous Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) model, marine CF...... speciation varies in different water chemistries. Thus for each metal spatially differentiated freshwater CF was developed in seven different EU freshwater archetypes. Considering that emission location is often unknown in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies, different averaging principles were tested......Following the Apeldoorn Declaration (Aboussouan et al. 2004) and Clearwater Consensus (Diamond et al. 2010), Gandhi et al. (2010) developed a new method to calculate metals Characterization Factor (CF) in freshwater and applied it on six metals, considering metals speciation and its impacts...

  6. Enantiospecific sublethal effects of the antidepressant fluoxetine to a model aquatic vertebrate and invertebrate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Jacob K; Ramirez, Alejandro J; Chambliss, C Kevin; Brooks, Bryan W

    2007-08-01

    Many contaminants are chiral compounds with enantiomers that may differ markedly in environmental fate, bioavailability, and toxicity. Enantiospecific environmental fate and ecotoxicological information are lacking for many chiral contaminants. The primary objective of this investigation included an assessment of potential enantiospecific differences in sublethal standardized and behavioral responses of the model organisms Pimephales promelas (teleost) and Daphnia magna (crustacean) to the widely prescribed chiral antidepressant fluoxetine. Endpoints assessed included D. magna immobilization, reproduction, and grazing rate and P. promelas survival, growth, and feeding rate. S-Fluoxetine was found to be more toxic to sublethal standardized and behavioral endpoints in P. promelas, potentially because its primary active metabolite, S-norfluoxetine, is more potent than the same metabolite of R-fluoxetine in mammals. This was not observed for D. magna responses. This differential enantiospecific response between model organisms may have resulted from closer target homology between mammals and fish than between mammals and crustaceans. P. promelas feeding rate, an ecologically relevant and mode-of-action related response, was the most sensitive endpoint tested for R- and S-fluoxetine with 10% effect concentration (EC10) values (+/-SE) of 16.1 (+/-20.2) and 3.7 (+/-4.6) microg l(-1), respectively. Up to a 9.4-fold difference in toxicity between enantiomers was observed; P. promelas growth EC10s (+/-SE) for R- and S-fluoxetine were 132.9 (+/-21.2) and 14.1 (+/-8.1) microg l(-1), respectively. Such differences in sublethal responses to fluoxetine enantiomers suggest that enantiospecific toxicity and mode-of-action related responses that are ecologically relevant (e.g., feeding rate) should be considered in future ecological hazard and risk assessments for chiral contaminants.

  7. Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, Jørgen E;

    2013-01-01

    The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quant......The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed...

  8. A genetically explicit model of speciation by sensory drive within a continuous population in aquatic environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seehausen Ole

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sensory drive hypothesis predicts that divergent sensory adaptation in different habitats may lead to premating isolation upon secondary contact of populations. Speciation by sensory drive has traditionally been treated as a special case of speciation as a byproduct of adaptation to divergent environments in geographically isolated populations. However, if habitats are heterogeneous, local adaptation in the sensory systems may cause the emergence of reproductively isolated species from a single unstructured population. In polychromatic fishes, visual sensitivity might become adapted to local ambient light regimes and the sensitivity might influence female preferences for male nuptial color. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of speciation by sensory drive as a byproduct of divergent visual adaptation within a single initially unstructured population. We use models based on explicit genetic mechanisms for color vision and nuptial coloration. Results We show that in simulations in which the adaptive evolution of visual pigments and color perception are explicitly modeled, sensory drive can promote speciation along a short selection gradient within a continuous habitat and population. We assumed that color perception evolves to adapt to the modal light environment that individuals experience and that females prefer to mate with males whose nuptial color they are most sensitive to. In our simulations color perception depends on the absorption spectra of an individual's visual pigments. Speciation occurred most frequently when the steepness of the environmental light gradient was intermediate and dispersal distance of offspring was relatively small. In addition, our results predict that mutations that cause large shifts in the wavelength of peak absorption promote speciation, whereas we did not observe speciation when peak absorption evolved by stepwise mutations with small effect. Conclusion The results suggest

  9. Prioritization of chemicals in the aquatic environment based on risk assessment: analytical, modeling and regulatory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén, D; Ginebreda, A; Farré, M; Darbra, R M; Petrovic, M; Gros, M; Barceló, D

    2012-12-01

    The extensive and intensive use of chemicals in our developed, highly technological society includes more than 100,000 chemical substances. Significant scientific evidence has lead to the recognition that their improper use and release may result in undesirable and harmful side-effects on both the human and ecosystem health. To cope with them, appropriate risk assessment processes and related prioritization schemes have been developed in order to provide the necessary scientific support for regulatory procedures. In the present paper, two of the elements that constitute the core of risk assessment, namely occurrence and hazard effects, have been discussed. Recent advances in analytical chemistry (sample pre-treatment and instrumental equipment, etc.) have allowed for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental pollution reaching limits of detection up to sub ng L(-1). Alternative to analytical measurements, occurrence models can provide risk managers with a very interesting approach for estimating environmental concentrations from real or hypothetical scenarios. The most representative prioritization schemes used for issuing lists of concerning chemicals have also been examined and put in the context of existing environmental policies for protection strategies and regulations. Finally, new challenges in the field of risk-assessment have been outlined, including those posed by new materials (i.e., nanomaterials), transformation products, multi-chemical exposure, or extension of the risk assessment process to the whole ecosystem.

  10. Land Management for Climate Change Mitigation and Geoengineering - Are Earth System Models up to the Challenge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Many of the terrestrial models included in Earth system models simulate changes to the land surface from human activities. In the Community Land Model (CLM), for example, irrigation, nitrogen fertilization, soil tillage, wood harvesting, and numerous crop types are represented in addition to anthropogenic land-cover change (e.g., deforestation, reforestation, and afforestation). These land uses are included in the models because they have a strong influence on the hydrological cycle (irrigation), crop yield and greenhouse gas emissions (nitrogen fertilization, crop type), and carbon storage (wood harvesting, tillage). However, the representation of these processes in Earth system models is uncertain, as is the specification of transient changes from 1850 through the historical era and into the future. A more fundamental aspect of land surface models is the coupling of land and atmosphere through exchanges of energy, mass, and momentum. Here, too, anthropogenic activities can affect climate through land-cover change and land management. Eddy covariance flux tower analyses suggest that the land management effects are as significant as the land-cover change effects. These analyses pose a challenge to land surface models - How well do the models simulate the effects of land management (e.g., changes in leaf area index or community composition) on surface flux exchange with the atmosphere? Here I use the CLM and a new, advanced multilayer canopy flux model to illustrate challenges in model surface fluxes and the influence of land management on surface fluxes.

  11. Modeling and mitigating winter hay bale damage by elk in a low prevalence bovine tuberculosis endemic zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooding, R M; Brook, R K

    2014-05-01

    Wildlife causes extensive crop damage throughout much of North America and these shared feeds are a key risk factor in the transmission of diseases between wildlife and livestock, including bovine tuberculosis (TB). Predicting wildlife use of agricultural crops can provide insight directed toward targeted disease mitigation at areas of potential indirect interaction. In this study, we quantified use of hay bales by elk (Cervus canadensis) during the winter in southwestern Manitoba, Canada using a database of 952 damage claims paid compensation from 1994 to 2012. We evaluated environmental factors predicted to determine risk of hay bale damage on each quarter section by elk using a Resource Selection Probability Function (RSPF) model. The most important variables (as measured for each quarter section and based on cumulative Akaike weights that scale from 0 to 1) were distance to protected areas (1.00), forest including a buffer around the quarter section (1.00), forage crop including a buffer around the quarter section (1.00), distance from streams (0.99), forage crop (0.92), cereal and oilseed crop cover including a buffer (0.85), and forest cover (0.82). We then developed an RSPF-based predictive map of damage to hay bales by elk that identified key areas with high probability of damage (RSPF≥0.6), accounting for 3.5% of the study area. We then multiplied the RSPF values by the inverse of the proximity to known cases of TB positive elk and determined that 0.51% of the study area had an overall high combined probability of hay bale damage and proximity to TB positive elk (i.e. adjusted probability of ≥0.6). In the southern half of the study area where 164 hay yard barrier fences have been implemented since 2002, there has been a significant decrease in the number of annual claims. Barrier fencing around Riding Mountain National Park has been successful at reducing elk damage where it has been implemented. In our study area, prevalence of TB in both cattle (0

  12. The selection of a model microalgal species as biomaterial for a novel aquatic phytotoxicity assay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengtson Nash, S.M. [National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4108 (Australia)]. E-mail: s.nash@uq.edu.au; Quayle, P.A. [National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4108 (Australia); Schreiber, U. [Lehrstuhl Botanik I, Julius-von-Sachs-Institut fuer Biowissenschaften, Universitaet Wuerzburg, D-97082 Wuerzburg (Germany); Mueller, J.F. [National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology, University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4108 (Australia)

    2005-05-15

    A phytotoxicity assay based on the ToxY-PAM dual-channel yield analyser has been developed and successfully incorporated into field assessments for the detection of phytotoxicants in water. As a means of further exploring the scope of the assay application and of selecting a model biomaterial to complement the instrument design, nine algal species were exposed to four chemical substances deemed of priority for water quality monitoring purposes (chlorpyrifos, copper, diuron and nonylphenol ethoxylate). Inter-species differences in sensitivity to the four toxicants varied by a factor of 1.9-100. Measurements of photosystem-II quantum yield using these nine single-celled microalgae as biomaterial corroborated previous studies which have shown that the ToxY-PAM dual-channel yield analyser is a highly sensitive method for the detection of PS-II impacting herbicides. Besides Phaeodactylum tricornutum, the previously applied biomaterial, three other species consistently performed well (Nitzschia closterium, Chlorella vulgaris and Dunaliella tertiolecta) and will be used in further test optimisation experiments. In addition to sensitivity, response time was evaluated and revealed a high degree of variation between species and toxicants. While most species displayed relatively weak and slow responses to copper, C. vulgaris demonstrated an IC{sub 10} of 51 {mu}g L{sup -1}, with maximum response measured within 25 minutes and inhibition being accompanied by a large decrease in fluorescence yield. The potential for this C. vulgaris-based bioassay to be used for the detection of copper is discussed. There was no evidence that the standard ToxY-PAM protocol, using these unicellular algae species, could be used for the detection of chlorpyrifos or nonylphenol ethoxylate at environmentally relevant levels.

  13. Linking monitoring and modelling for river basin management:Danish experience with combating nutrient loadings to the aquatic environment from point and non-point sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KRONVANG; Brian; WINDOLF; JФrgen; GRANT; Ruth; ANDERSEN; Hans; E; THODSEN; Hans; OVESEN; Niels; B; LARSEN; SФren; E

    2009-01-01

    Nationwide monitoring of the aquatic environment was initiated in 1988 in Denmark as a means to follow the outcome of the Action Plans for nutrient pollution of the aquatic environment. Five Action Plans have been adopted by the Danish Parliament since 1985 and the nationwide monitoring programme can be used to quantify the outcome as shown by reductions in nutrient discharges from both point and non-point sources. Moreover, the empirical experience gathered from nearly 20 years of monitoring is assisting the development and calibration of models for simulation of nitrogen leaching, nitrogen removal in groundwater and surface waters and the establishment of a P-index all covering the entire land area of Denmark.

  14. Linking monitoring and modelling for river basin man-agement: Danish experience with combating nutrient loadings to the aquatic environment from point and non-point sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KRONVANG Brian; WINDOLF J(φ)rgen; GRANT Ruth; ANDERSEN Hans E; THODSEN Hans; OVESEN Niels B; LARSEN S(φ)ren E

    2009-01-01

    Nationwide monitoring of the aquatic environment was initiated in 1988 in Denmark as a means to fol-low the outcome of the Action Plans for nutrient pollution of the aquatic environment.Five Action Plans have been adopted by the Danish Parliament since 1985 and the nationwide monitoring programme can be used to quantify the outcome as shown by reductions in nutrient discharges from both point and non-point sources.Moreover, the empirical experience gathered from nearly 20 years of monitoring is assisting the development and calibration of models for simulation of nitrogen leaching, nitrogen re-moval in groundwater and surface waters and the establishment of a P-index all covering the entire land area of Denmark.

  15. Predicting organic floc transport dynamics in shallow aquatic ecosystems: Insights from the field, the laboratory, and numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, L.G.; Harvey, J.W.; Noe, G.B.; Crimaldi, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Transport of particulate organic material can impact watershed sediment and nutrient budgets and can alter the geomorphologic evolution of shallow aquatic environments. Prediction of organic aggregate ("floc") transport in these environments requires knowledge of how hydraulics and biota affect the entrainment, settling, and aggregation of particles. This study evaluated the aggregation and field transport dynamics of organic floc from a low-gradient floodplain wetland with flow-parallel ridges and sloughs in the Florida Everglades. floc dynamics were evaluated in a rotating annular flume and in situ in the field. Under present managed conditions in the Everglades, floc is not entrained by mean flows but is suspended via biological production in the water column and bioturbation. Aggregation was a significant process affecting Everglades floc at high flume flow velocities (7.0 cm s-1) and during recovery from high flow; disaggregation was not significant for the tested flows. During moderate flows when floc dynamics are hydrodynamically controlled, it is possible to model floc transport using a single "operative floc diameter" that accurately predicts fluxes downstream and to the bed. In contrast, during high flows and recovery from high flows, aggregation dynamics should be simulated. When entrained by flow in open-water sloughs, Everglades floc will be transported downstream in multiple deposition and reentrainment events but will undergo net settling when transported onto ridges of emergent vegetation. We hypothesize that net transport of material from open to vegetated areas during high flows is critical for forming and maintaining distinctive topographic patterning in the Everglades and other low-gradient floodplains. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Predicting organic floc transport dynamics in shallow aquatic ecosystems: insights from the field, laboratory, and numerical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Judson W.; Noe, Gregory B.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Crimaldi, John P.

    2009-01-01

    Transport of particulate organic material can impact watershed sediment and nutrient budgets and can alter the geomorphologic evolution of shallow aquatic environments. Prediction of organic aggregate (“floc”) transport in these environments requires knowledge of how hydraulics and biota affect the entrainment, settling, and aggregation of particles. This study evaluated the aggregation and field transport dynamics of organic floc from a low-gradient floodplain wetland with flow-parallel ridges and sloughs in the Florida Everglades. Floc dynamics were evaluated in a rotating annular flume and in situ in the field. Under present managed conditions in the Everglades, floc is not entrained by mean flows but is suspended via biological production in the water column and bioturbation. Aggregation was a significant process affecting Everglades floc at high flume flow velocities (7.0 cm s-1) and during recovery from high flow; disaggregation was not significant for the tested flows. During moderate flows when floc dynamics are hydrodynamically controlled, it is possible to model floc transport using a single “operative floc diameter” that accurately predicts fluxes downstream and to the bed. In contrast, during high flows and recovery from high flows, aggregation dynamics should be simulated. When entrained by flow in open-water sloughs, Everglades floc will be transported downstream in multiple deposition and reentrainment events but will undergo net settling when transported onto ridges of emergent vegetation. We hypothesize that net transport of material from open to vegetated areas during high flows is critical for forming and maintaining distinctive topographic patterning in the Everglades and other low-gradient floodplains.

  17. The importance of recording physical and chemical variables simultaneously with remote radiological surveillance of aquatic systems: a perspective for environmental modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abril, J M; El-Mrabet, R; Barros, H

    2004-01-01

    Modern nuclear metrological tools allow the remote surveillance of the radiological status of the aquatic systems, providing an important advance in the protection of the environment. Nevertheless, the significance of the radiological data could be highly improved through simultaneous recording of physical and chemical variables that govern the behaviour and bioavailability of radionuclides in these aquatic systems. This work reviews some of these variables from the point of view of the environmental modelling. The amount, nature and dynamics of the suspended loads and bottom sediments strongly influence the behaviour of particle-reactive radionuclides. The kinetics of this process has a very fast component, as it is shown from our recent studies with 241Am, 239Pu and 133Ba in several aquatic systems from southern Spain. Changes in pH, temperature and in the electrical conductivity are influencing the uptake kinetics and the final partitioning of the radioactivity. Water currents govern the radionuclide transport and dispersion. These points are illustrated with modelling exercises in the scenarios of the Suez Canal (Egypt) and the Härsvatten Lake (Sweden).

  18. SOLPS modelling of W arising from repetitive mitigated ELMs in ITER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coster, D.P., E-mail: David.Coster@ipp.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany); Chankin, A.V.; Klingshirn, H.-J.; Dux, R.; Fable, E. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany); Bonnin, X. [CNRS – LSPM, Université Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 93430 Villetaneuse (France); ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon, 13067 St Paul Lez Durance Cedex (France); Kukushkin, A.; Loarte, A. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon, 13067 St Paul Lez Durance Cedex (France)

    2015-08-15

    SOLPS simulations of ELMs are performed for ITER to model the impact of sputtered tungsten on the plasma. Without prompt redeposition, the impact on the core is found to depend on the nature of the ELM event: if it is modelled by a diffusive process, contamination of the core is possible; if it is modelled by a convective process, contamination of the core can be avoided. With prompt redeposition, W contamination of the core seems to be unlikely as a result of the very high prompt redeposition fraction predicted by both simple and more complicated models.

  19. Flood mitigation through optimal control of a network of multi-purpose reservoirs by using Model Predictive Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    MyoLin, Nay; Rutten, Martine; van de Giesen, Nick

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is a common natural disaster in the world. Construction of reservoirs, sluice gates, dikes, embankments and sea walls are implemented to minimize loss of life and property in a flood event. Rather than completely relying on large structural measures, non-structural measures such as real time control of a reservoir system can also improve flood prevention and water supply in a river basin. In this paper, we present the optimal operation of a multi-reservoir system by using Model Predictive Control (MPC) and particular attention is focused on flood mitigation of the Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar. The main challenges are non-linearity in the dynamic behavior of the water system and exponential growth of computational complexity with the state and control dimension. To deal with an issue related to non-linearity, we applied simplified internal model based on linearization scheme with a large grid length. For solving curse of dimensionality, we utilize the reduced model in which the states of the system are reduced by considering outflows from uncontrolled catchments as disturbances in the water system. We also address the computational time for real time control by using large time step scheme. Simulation results indicate that this model is able to use for real time control of a reservoir system addressing trade-offs between the multiple objectives.

  20. Models and Simulations of C60-Fullerene Plasma Jets for Disruption Mitigation and Magneto-Inertial Fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogatu, Ioan-Niculae; Galkin, Sergei A.; Kim, Jin-Soo

    2009-11-01

    We present the models and simulation results of C60-fullerene plasma jets proposed to be used for the disruption mitigation on ITER and for magneto-inertial fusion (MIF). The model describing the fast production of a large mass of C60 molecular gas in the pulsed power source by explosive sublimation of C60 micro-grains is detailed. Several aspects of the magnetic ``piston'' model and the 2D interchange (magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor) instability in the rail gun arc dynamics are described. A plasma jet adiabatic expansion model is used to investigate the in-flight three-body recombination during jet transport to the plasma boundary. Our LSP PIC code 3D simulations show that heavy C60 plasmoid penetrates deeply through a transverse magnetic barrier demonstrating self-polarization and magnetic field expulsion effects. The LSP code 3D simulation of two plasma jets head-on injection along a magnetic field lines for MIF are also discussed.

  1. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  2. Modeling and predicting the growth of the mussel, Mytilus edulis: implications for planning of aquaculture and eutrophication mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergström, Per; Lindegarth, Susanne; Lindegarth, Mats

    2015-12-01

    The increased pressure on the marine ecosystems highlights the need for policies and integrated approaches for sustainable management of coastal areas. Spatial planning based on geographic information of human activities, ecological structures and functions, and their associated goods and services is a fundamental component in this context. Here, we evaluate the potential of predictive modeling to provide spatial data on one ecosystem function, mussel growth for use in such processes. We developed a methodology based on statistical modeling, spatial prediction, and mapping for the relative growth of the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis. We evaluated the performance of different modeling techniques and classification schemes using empirical measurements of growth from 144 sampling sites and data on biological, chemical, and physical predictors. Following comparisons of the different techniques and schemes, we developed random forest models to predict growth along the Swedish west coast. Implemented into GIS the best model produced in this study predicts that low, intermediate, and high growth rates can be expected in 53%, 32%, and 15% of modeled area, respectively. The results of this study also suggest that the nature and quality of predictor data hold the key to improving the predictive power of models. On a more general note, this study exemplifies a feasible approach based on measuring, modeling, and mapping for obtaining scientifically based spatial information on ecosystem functions and services affected by a complex set of factors. Such information is fundamental for maritime spatial planning and ecosystem-based management and its importance is likely to increase in the future. Because of its close link to nutrient assimilation and production yield, site-specific information of soft tissue growth such as the map of predicted growth rate developed in this study can be used as a tool for optimizing actions aimed at mitigating eutrophication and aquaculture

  3. Aquatic Therapy for Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucher, Greta; Moore, Kelsey; Rodia, Rachel; Moser, Christy Szczech

    2015-01-01

    Aquatic therapy has long been highlighted in the literature as a potentially powerful therapeutic intervention. This review will highlight basic definitions of aquatic therapy, review salient research, and identify specific diagnoses that may benefit from aquatic therapy. Online resources, blogs, and books that occupational therapists may find…

  4. Aquatic Therapy for Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucher, Greta; Moore, Kelsey; Rodia, Rachel; Moser, Christy Szczech

    2015-01-01

    Aquatic therapy has long been highlighted in the literature as a potentially powerful therapeutic intervention. This review will highlight basic definitions of aquatic therapy, review salient research, and identify specific diagnoses that may benefit from aquatic therapy. Online resources, blogs, and books that occupational therapists may find…

  5. Predicting Scenarios for Successful Autodissemination of Pyriproxyfen by Malaria Vectors from Their Resting Sites to Aquatic Habitats; Description and Simulation Analysis of a Field-Parameterizable Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samson S Kiware

    Full Text Available Large-cage experiments indicate pyriproxifen (PPF can be transferred from resting sites to aquatic habitats by Anopheles arabiensis--malaria vector mosquitoes to inhibit emergence of their own offspring. PPF coverage is amplified twice: (1 partial coverage of resting sites with PPF contamination results in far higher contamination coverage of adult mosquitoes because they are mobile and use numerous resting sites per gonotrophic cycle, and (2 even greater contamination coverage of aquatic habitats results from accumulation of PPF from multiple oviposition events.Deterministic mathematical models are described that use only field-measurable input parameters and capture the biological processes that mediate PPF autodissemination. Recent successes in large cages can be rationalized, and the plausibility of success under full field conditions can be evaluated a priori. The model also defines measurable properties of PPF delivery prototypes that may be optimized under controlled experimental conditions to maximize chances of success in full field trials. The most obvious flaw in this model is the endogenous relationship that inevitably occurs between the larval habitat coverage and the measured rate of oviposition into those habitats if the target mosquito species is used to mediate PPF transfer. However, this inconsistency also illustrates the potential advantages of using a different, non-target mosquito species for contamination at selected resting sites that shares the same aquatic habitats as the primary target. For autodissemination interventions to eliminate malaria transmission or vector populations during the dry season window of opportunity will require comprehensive contamination of the most challenging subset of aquatic habitats [Formula: see text] that persist or retain PPF activity (Ux for only one week [Formula: see text], where Ux = 7 days. To achieve >99% contamination coverage of these habitats will necessitate values for the

  6. Predicting Scenarios for Successful Autodissemination of Pyriproxyfen by Malaria Vectors from Their Resting Sites to Aquatic Habitats; Description and Simulation Analysis of a Field-Parameterizable Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiware, Samson S.; Corliss, George; Merrill, Stephen; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Devine, Gregor; Majambere, Silas; Killeen, Gerry F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Large-cage experiments indicate pyriproxifen (PPF) can be transferred from resting sites to aquatic habitats by Anopheles arabiensis - malaria vector mosquitoes to inhibit emergence of their own offspring. PPF coverage is amplified twice: (1) partial coverage of resting sites with PPF contamination results in far higher contamination coverage of adult mosquitoes because they are mobile and use numerous resting sites per gonotrophic cycle, and (2) even greater contamination coverage of aquatic habitats results from accumulation of PPF from multiple oviposition events. Methods and Findings Deterministic mathematical models are described that use only field-measurable input parameters and capture the biological processes that mediate PPF autodissemination. Recent successes in large cages can be rationalized, and the plausibility of success under full field conditions can be evaluated a priori. The model also defines measurable properties of PPF delivery prototypes that may be optimized under controlled experimental conditions to maximize chances of success in full field trials. The most obvious flaw in this model is the endogenous relationship that inevitably occurs between the larval habitat coverage and the measured rate of oviposition into those habitats if the target mosquito species is used to mediate PPF transfer. However, this inconsistency also illustrates the potential advantages of using a different, non-target mosquito species for contamination at selected resting sites that shares the same aquatic habitats as the primary target. For autodissemination interventions to eliminate malaria transmission or vector populations during the dry season window of opportunity will require comprehensive contamination of the most challenging subset of aquatic habitats (Clx) that persist or retain PPF activity (Ux) for only one week (Clx→1, where Ux = 7 days). To achieve >99% contamination coverage of these habitats will necessitate values for the product of

  7. The biotic ligand model approach for addressing effects of exposure water chemistry on aquatic toxicity of metals: Genesis and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    A major uncertainty in many aquatic risk assessments for toxic chemicals is the aggregate effect of the physicochemical characteristics of exposure media on toxicity, and how this affects extrapolation of laboratory test results to natural systems. A notable example of this is h...

  8. The biotic ligand model approach for addressing effects of exposure water chemistry on aquatic toxicity of metals: Genesis and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    A major uncertainty in many aquatic risk assessments for toxic chemicals is the aggregate effect of the physicochemical characteristics of exposure media on toxicity, and how this affects extrapolation of laboratory test results to natural systems. A notable example of this is h...

  9. Mitigation Modelling of the Leeuwin Class Hydrographic Sonars in Jervis Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    population of around 60 Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops aduncus) reside within Jervis Bay. A closely related species, Tursiops truncatus has a...reference to hydrographic sonar frequencies, with a resident population of around 60 Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops aduncus). Modelling...well sheltered bay with no major fresh water inflows from rivers [Vogelaar et al 2006]. The SCAT-RD modelling used climatological databases for sound

  10. Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malinowski, Kathleen T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); McAvoy, Thomas J. [Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and Institute of Systems Research, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); George, Rohini [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Dieterich, Sonja [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States); D' Souza, Warren D., E-mail: wdsou001@umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (United States); Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor-surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor-surrogate correlation and the precision in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor-surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3-3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.

  11. Development of a Windbreak Dust Predictive Model and Mitigation Planning Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    University of Utah portable hot - wire calibration test facility before each experiment. Data were sampled at 25kHz using an AN-1003 Anemometry system...porous shelter fence, J. Ind. Aerod., 15, 145-156. Bruun, H.H., 1995. Hot - wire anemometry : principles of signal analysis. Oxford University Press... Hot - wire Turbulence Quantification Experiments 11 3.2 QUIC Model Development 13 3.2.1 Improved Mean Wind and Turbulence Modeling for

  12. Understanding carbon regulation in aquatic systems - Bacteriophages as a model [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/4zd

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swapnil Sanmukh

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The bacteria and their phages are the most abundant constituents of the aquatic environment, and so represent an ideal model for studying carbon regulation in an aquatic system. The microbe-mediated interconversion of bioavailable organic carbon (OC into dissolved organic carbon (DOC by the microbial carbon pump (MCP has been suggested to have the potential to revolutionize our view of carbon sequestration. It is estimated that DOC is the largest pool of organic matter in the ocean and, though a major component of the global carbon cycle, its source is not yet well understood. A key element of the carbon cycle is the microbial conversion of DOC into inedible forms. The primary aim of this study is to understand the phage conversion from organic to inorganic carbon during phage-host interactions. Time studies of phage-host interactions under controlled conditions reveal their impact on the total carbon content of the samples and their interconversion of organic and inorganic carbon compared to control samples. A total organic carbon (TOC analysis showed an increase in inorganic carbon content by 15-25 percent in samples with bacteria and phage compared to samples with bacteria alone. Compared to control samples, the increase in inorganic carbon content was 60-70-fold in samples with bacteria and phage, and 50-55-fold for samples with bacteria alone. This study indicates the potential impact of phages in regulating the carbon cycle of aquatic systems.

  13. [Ecological risk assessment of hydropower dam construction on aquatic species in middle reaches of Lancang River, Southwest China based on ESHIPPO model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Yan; Peng, Ming-Chun; Dong, Shi-Kui; Liu, Shi-Liang; Li, Jin-Peng; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2013-02-01

    An investigation was conducted on the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish at 8 sampling sections in the Manwan Reservoir before and after the construction of Xiaowan Hydropower Dam. The modified ESHIPPO model was applied to study the changes of the featured aquatic species, including endangered species, endemic specie, peis resource species, and native fish, aimed to make an ecological risk assessment of the dam construction on the aquatic species. The dam construction had definite ecological risk on the aquatic species, especially the endemic fish, in Langcang River, due to the changes of hydrological conditions. The endemic species including Bangia atropurpurea, Lemanea sinica, Prasiola sp., Attheyella yunnanensis, and Neutrodiaptomus mariadvigae were at high ecological risk, and thus, besides monitoring, protection measures were needed to be taken to lower the possibility of the species extinction. The widely distributed species of phytoplankton and zooplankton were at medium ecological risk, and protection measures besides monitoring should be prepared. Twelve kinds of native fish, including Barbodes huangchuchieni, Sinilabeo laticeps, Racoma lantsangensis, Racoma lissolabiatus, Paracobitis anguillioides, Schistura latifasciata, Botia nigrolineata, Vanmanenia striata, Homaloptera yunnanensis, Platytropius longianlis, Glyptothorax zanaensis, and Pseudecheneis immaculate, were at high ecological risk, and protection measures needed to be developed to prevent the possibility of the species loss and extinction.

  14. Biotic ligand modeling approach: Synthesis of the effect of major cations on the toxicity of metals to soil and aquatic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardestani, Masoud M; van Straalen, Nico M; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2015-10-01

    The biotic ligand model (BLM) approach is used to assess metal toxicity, taking into account the competition of other cations with the free metal ions for binding to the biotic ligand sites of aquatic and soil organisms. The bioavailable fraction of metals, represented by the free metal ion, is a better measure than the total concentration for assessing their potential risk to the environment. Because BLMs are relating toxicity to the fraction of biotic ligands occupied by the metal, they can be useful for investigating factors affecting metal bioaccumulation and toxicity. In the present review, the effects of major cations on the toxicity of metals to soil and aquatic organisms were comprehensively studied by performing a meta-analysis of BLM literature data. Interactions at the binding sites were shown to be species- and metal-specific. The main factors affecting the relationships between toxicity and conditional binding constants for metal binding at the biotic ligand appeared to be Ca(2+) , Mg(2+) , and protons. Other important characteristics of the exposure medium, such as levels of dissolved organic carbon and concentrations of other cations, should also be considered to obtain a proper assessment of metal toxicity to soil and aquatic organisms.

  15. Modelling electron distributions within ESA's Gaia satellite CCD pixels to mitigate radiation damage

    CERN Document Server

    Seabroke, G M; Burt, D; Robbins, M S

    2009-01-01

    The Gaia satellite is a high-precision astrometry, photometry and spectroscopic ESA cornerstone mission, currently scheduled for launch in 2012. Its primary science drivers are the composition, formation and evolution of the Galaxy. Gaia will achieve its unprecedented positional accuracy requirements with detailed calibration and correction for radiation damage. At L2, protons cause displacement damage in the silicon of CCDs. The resulting traps capture and emit electrons from passing charge packets in the CCD pixel, distorting the image PSF and biasing its centroid. Microscopic models of Gaia's CCDs are being developed to simulate this effect. The key to calculating the probability of an electron being captured by a trap is the 3D electron density within each CCD pixel. However, this has not been physically modelled for the Gaia CCD pixels. In Seabroke, Holland & Cropper (2008), the first paper of this series, we motivated the need for such specialised 3D device modelling and outlined how its future resu...

  16. Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

    2016-12-01

    The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

  17. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  18. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  19. Harmonic modelling, propagation and mitigation for large wind power plants connected via long HVAC cables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dowlatabadi, Mohammadkazem Bakhshizadeh; Hjerrild, Jesper; Kocewiak, Łukasz

    2016-01-01

    be reduced and operational availability and the reliability can be improved. Challenges hereto include lower resonance frequencies due to the long cables, frequency dependent modelling of long submarine cables, passive filtering, and PLL dynamics in the control loops (from a harmonic stability point of view)....

  20. The geometry of terrestrial laser scanning; identification of errors, modeling and mitigation of scanning geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soudarissanane, S.S.

    2016-01-01

    Over the past few decades, Terrestrial Laser Scanners are increasingly being used in a broad spectrum of applications, from surveying to civil engineering, medical modeling and forensics. Especially surveying applications require on one hand a quickly obtainable, high resolution point cloud but also

  1. Use of Wildfire Smoke Forcasting Model to Mitigate Burden on a Population's Health and Wellbeing Presentation for International Society of Environmental Epidemiology meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Use of Wildfire Smoke Forecasting Model to Mitigate Burden on a Population’s Health and Wellbeing Ana G. Rappold, Neal Fann, Wayne E. Cascio, Robert B. Devlin, David Diaz-Sanchez Background Wildfires are a major source of fine particular matter and other air pollutants as...

  2. Radionuclide transport and uptake in coastal aquatic ecosystems: a comparison of a 3D dynamic model and a compartment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Konovalenko, Lena; Møhlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Bradshaw, Clare; Aquilonius, Karin; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2013-05-01

    In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.

  3. Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe [Ecological and Environmental Dept., DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark)], E-mail: aer@dhigroup.com; Konovalenko, Lena; Bradshaw, Clare [The Dept. of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (SKB), Stockholm (Sweden); Aquilonius, Karin [Studsvik Nuclear AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.

  4. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean T.; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2012-01-01

    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  5. Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Kirilenko, Andrei; Lim, Howe; Teng, Williams

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

  6. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  7. Numerical Modelling of Building Vibrations due to Railway Traffic: Analysis of the Mitigation Capacity of a Wave Barrier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fran Ribes-Llario

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transmission of train-induced vibrations to buildings located in the vicinity of the track is one of the main negative externalities of railway transport, since both human comfort and the adequate functioning of sensitive equipment may be compromised. In this paper, a 3D FEM model is presented and validated with data from a real track stretch near Barcelona, Spain. Furthermore, a case study is analyzed as an application of the model, in order to evaluate the propagation and transmission of vibrations induced by the passage of a suburban train to a nearby 3-storey building. As a main outcome, vertical vibrations in the foundation slab are found to be maximum in the corners, while horizontal vibrations keep constant along the edges. The propagation within the building structure is also studied, concluding that vibrations invariably increase in their propagation upwards the building. Moreover, the mitigation capacity of a wave barrier acting as a source isolation is assessed by comparing vibration levels registered in several points of the building structure with and without the barrier. In this regard, the wave barrier is found to effectively reduce vibration in both the soil and the structure.

  8. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall

  9. Moringa oleifera Mitigates Memory Impairment and Neurodegeneration in Animal Model of Age-Related Dementia

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    To date, the preventive strategy against dementia is still essential due to the rapid growth of its prevalence and the limited therapeutic efficacy. Based on the crucial role of oxidative stress in age-related dementia and the antioxidant and nootropic activities of Moringa oleifera, the enhancement of spatial memory and neuroprotection of M. oleifera leaves extract in animal model of age-related dementia was determined. The possible underlying mechanism was also investigated. Male Wistar rat...

  10. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

  11. Integrated Climate Change and Threatened Bird Population Modeling to Mitigate Operations Risks on Florida Military Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    The integrated modeling and management framework developed in this study can be generalized to other coastal facilities and environmental... Nourishment , Exclosures, and Predator Management) have benefits worthy of investigation. In the following section we introduce the location of study , bird...m SLR as well as the No Action and Beach Nourishment scenarios. For this measure, cells throughout the study site with a habitat suitability equal

  12. An Analytical Prediction Model of Time Diversity Performance for Earth-Space Fade Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pantelis-Daniel M. Arapoglou

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Time diversity (TD has recently attracted attention as a promising and cost-efficient solution for high-frequency broadcast satellite applications. The present work proposes a general prediction model for the application of TD by approximating the time dynamics of rain attenuation through the use of the joint lognormal distribution. The proposed method is tested against experimental data and its performance is investigated with respect to the basic parameters of a satellite link.

  13. A novel client service quality measuring model and an eHealthcare mitigating approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L M; Choi, Wai Ping Choi; Wong, Anita Yiu Ming

    2016-07-01

    Facing population ageing in Hong Kong, the demand of long-term elderly health care services is increasing. The challenge is to support a good quality service under the constraints faced by recent shortage of nursing and care services professionals without redesigning the work flow operated in the existing elderly health care industries. the existing elderly health care industries. The Total QoS measure based on Finite Capacity Queuing Model is a reliable method and an effective measurement for Quality of services. The value is good for measuring the staffing level and offers a measurement for efficiency enhancement when incorporate new technologies like ICT. The implemented system has improved the Quality of Service by more than 14% and the extra released manpower resource will allow clinical care provider to offer further value added services without actually increasing head count. We have developed a novel Quality of Service measurement for Clinical Care services based on multi-queue using finite capacity queue model M/M/c/K/n and the measurement is useful for estimating the shortage of staff resource in a caring institution. It is essential for future integration with the existing widely used assessment model to develop reliable measuring limits which allow an effective measurement of public fund used in health care industries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Radionuclide transport and uptake in coastal aquatic ecosystems - a comparison of a 3D dynamic model and a compartment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University (Sweden); Erichsen, A.C.; Moehlenberg, F. [Ecological and Environmental Department DHI (Sweden); Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding the fate of radionuclides in ecosystems is necessary. Here, two mechanistic models (K- and D- model) describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay were compared. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter. Parallel to adsorption, transfer of radionuclides is linked to flows of organic matter (carbon) in food chains. Despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables and partition coefficients, the accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135 and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and with site measurements. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate mean values. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take full advantage of their respective strengths. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  15. Reactive Transport Models with Geomechanics to Mitigate Risks of CO2 Utilization and Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deo, Milind [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Huang, Hai [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Kweon, Hyukmin [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Guo, Luanjing [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2016-03-28

    Reactivity of carbon dioxide (CO2), rocks and brine is important in a number of practical situations in carbon dioxide sequestration. Injectivity of CO2 will be affected by near wellbore dissolution or precipitation. Natural fractures or faults containing specific minerals may reactivate leading to induced seismicity. In this project, we first examined if the reactions between CO2, brine and rocks affect the nature of the porous medium and properties including petrophysical properties in the timeframe of the injection operations. This was done by carrying out experiments at sequestration conditions (2000 psi for corefloods and 2400 psi for batch experiments, and 600°C) with three different types of rocks – sandstone, limestone and dolomite. Experiments were performed in batch mode and corefloods were conducted over a two-week period. Batch experiments were performed with samples of differing surface area to understand the impact of surface area on overall reaction rates. Toughreact, a reactive transport model was used to interpret and understand the experimental results. The role of iron in dissolution and precipitation reactions was observed to be significant. Iron containing minerals – siderite and ankerite dissolved resulting in changes in porosity and permeability. Corefloods and batch experiments revealed similar patterns. With the right cationic balance, there is a possibility of precipitation of iron bearing carbonates. The results indicate that during injection operations mineralogical changes may lead to injectivity enhancements near the wellbore and petrophysical changes elsewhere in the system. Limestone and dolomite cores showed consistent dissolution at the entrance of the core. The dissolution led to formation of wormholes and interconnected dissolution zones. Results indicate that near wellbore dissolution in these rock-types may lead to rock failure. Micro-CT images of the cores before and after the experiments

  16. Jaguars on the move: modeling movement to mitigate fragmentation from road expansion in the Mayan Forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colchero, Fernando; Conde, Dalia Amor; Manterola, Carlos

    2011-01-01

    -telemetry and GPS data to infer the movement behavior of jaguars Panthera onca as a response to vegetation, roads and human population density in the Mayan Forests of Mexico and Guatemala. We used the results of the model to simulate jaguars moving along a road that bisects the major reserve system in the area....... The aim of the simulations was to identify suitable locations for wildlife passes. We found that jaguars move preferentially to undisturbed forests and that females avoid moving close to roads and to areas with even low levels of human occupation. Males also avoid roads, but to a lesser degree, and appear...

  17. Electron Multipactor: Theory Review, Comparison and Modeling of Mitigation Techniques in ICEPIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    1991. ISBN 0-07-005371-5. [6] Castañeda, S. I., N. Dı́az, D. Raboso, I. Montero, L. Galán, and F. Rueda . “Effects of air exposure on ion beam assisted...DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE... Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. AFIT/GE/ENP/09-M02 ELECTRON MULTIPACTOR: THEORY REVIEW, COMPARISON AND MODELING OF

  18. From quantifying historical LULCC impacts to optimizing land management for climate mitigation: Insights from climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, E.; Lejeune, Q.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-12-01

    Human activities have profoundly transformed the land surface through land use/land cover change (LULCC). The consequence of this transformation is twofold: First, the conversion from natural to anthropogenic systems exert a direct forcing on climate (through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes); Second the transformed ecosystems may modify land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms thus modulating the response to climate change or to specific weather events. The first point will be illustrated by reviewing recent modelling results, including LUCID and CMIP5 model intercomparisons, to shed some light on the relative importance of LULCC versus other climate forcings. Given the importance of LULCC impacts at the regional scale, some recent efforts to improve the representation of land processes in regional climate models [1] as well as a regional assessment of the impact of amazonian deforestation [2] will be presented. The second point will be discussed through two examples. First, the fact that LULCC may modulate certain modes of variability will be illustrated based on model experiments highlighting the regional interplay between ENSO variability and amazonian deforestation. Second, we will show that peak temperatures during heat waves can be strongly influenced locally by the type of land cover or land management practices. In particular no-till farming, by increasing surface albedo, can lead to a substantial attenuation of hot temperatures during heat waves, in part due to a more efficient radiative cooling effect during cloud-free conditions [3]. References:[1] Davin, E.L. and S.I. Seneviratne (2012), Role of land surface processes and diffuse/direct radiation partitioning in simulating the European climate, Biogeosciences, 9, 1695-1707, doi:10.5194/bg-9-1695-2012.[2] Lejeune, Q., E.L. Davin, B. Guillod and S.I. Seneviratne (2015), Influence of Amazonian deforestation on the future evolution of regional surface fluxes, circulation, surface temperature and

  19. Influence of the formation- and passivation rate of boron-oxygen defects for mitigating carrier-induced degradation in silicon within a hydrogen-based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallam, Brett, E-mail: brett.hallam@unsw.edu.au; Abbott, Malcolm; Nampalli, Nitin; Hamer, Phill; Wenham, Stuart [School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, Level 1 Tyree Energy Technologies Building, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW 2052 (Australia)

    2016-02-14

    A three-state model is used to explore the influence of defect formation- and passivation rates of carrier-induced degradation related to boron-oxygen complexes in boron-doped p-type silicon solar cells within a hydrogen-based model. The model highlights that the inability to effectively mitigate carrier-induced degradation at elevated temperatures in previous studies is due to the limited availability of defects for hydrogen passivation, rather than being limited by the defect passivation rate. An acceleration of the defect formation rate is also observed to increase both the effectiveness and speed of carrier-induced degradation mitigation, whereas increases in the passivation rate do not lead to a substantial acceleration of the hydrogen passivation process. For high-throughput mitigation of such carrier-induced degradation on finished solar cell devices, two key factors were found to be required, high-injection conditions (such as by using high intensity illumination) to enable an acceleration of defect formation whilst simultaneously enabling a rapid passivation of the formed defects, and a high temperature to accelerate both defect formation and defect passivation whilst still ensuring an effective mitigation of carrier-induced degradation.

  20. Inhibition of transglutaminase 2 mitigates transcriptional dysregulation in models of Huntington disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConoughey, Stephen J; Basso, Manuela; Niatsetskaya, Zoya V; Sleiman, Sama F; Smirnova, Natalia A; Langley, Brett C; Mahishi, Lata; Cooper, Arthur J L; Antonyak, Marc A; Cerione, Rick A; Li, Bo; Starkov, Anatoly; Chaturvedi, Rajnish Kumar; Beal, M Flint; Coppola, Giovanni; Geschwind, Daniel H; Ryu, Hoon; Xia, Li; Iismaa, Siiri E; Pallos, Judit; Pasternack, Ralf; Hils, Martin; Fan, Jing; Raymond, Lynn A; Marsh, J Lawrence; Thompson, Leslie M; Ratan, Rajiv R

    2010-09-01

    Caused by a polyglutamine expansion in the huntingtin protein, Huntington's disease leads to striatal degeneration via the transcriptional dysregulation of a number of genes, including those involved in mitochondrial biogenesis. Here we show that transglutaminase 2, which is upregulated in HD, exacerbates transcriptional dysregulation by acting as a selective corepressor of nuclear genes; transglutaminase 2 interacts directly with histone H3 in the nucleus. In a cellular model of HD, transglutaminase inhibition de-repressed two established regulators of mitochondrial function, PGC-1alpha and cytochrome c and reversed susceptibility of human HD cells to the mitochondrial toxin, 3-nitroproprionic acid; however, protection mediated by transglutaminase inhibition was not associated with improved mitochondrial bioenergetics. A gene microarray analysis indicated that transglutaminase inhibition normalized expression of not only mitochondrial genes but also 40% of genes that are dysregulated in HD striatal neurons, including chaperone and histone genes. Moreover, transglutaminase inhibition attenuated degeneration in a Drosophila model of HD and protected mouse HD striatal neurons from excitotoxicity. Altogether these findings demonstrate that selective TG inhibition broadly corrects transcriptional dysregulation in HD and defines a novel HDAC-independent epigenetic strategy for treating neurodegeneration.

  1. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    OpenAIRE

    Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Veer, Henk van der; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2011-01-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years’ project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs ...

  2. Monitoring, modeling and mitigating impacts of wind farms on local meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin; Kelley, Neil

    2010-05-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of energy. Most of the growth is in the industrial sector comprising of large utility-scale wind farms. Recent modeling studies have suggested that such wind farms can significantly affect local and regional weather and climate. In this work, we present observational evidence of the impact of wind farms on near-surface air temperatures. Data from perhaps the only meteorological field campaign in an operational wind farm shows that downwind temperatures are lower during the daytime and higher at night compared to the upwind environment. Corresponding radiosonde profiles at the nearby Edwards Air Force Base WMO meteorological station show that the diurnal environment is unstable while the nocturnal environment is stable during the field campaign. This behavior is consistent with the hypothesis proposed by Baidya Roy et al. (JGR 2004) that states that turbulence generated in the wake of rotors enhance vertical mixing leading to a warming/cooling under positive/negative potential temperature lapse rates. We conducted a set of 306 simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test if regional climate models can capture the thermal effects of wind farms. We represented wind turbines with a subgrid parameterization that assumes rotors to be sinks of momentum and sources of turbulence. The simulated wind farms consistently generated a localized warming/cooling under positive/negative lapse rates as hypothesized. We found that these impacts are inversely correlated with background atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Thus, if the background turbulence is high due to natural processes, the effects of additional turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors are likely to be small. We propose the following strategies to minimize impacts of wind farms: • Engineering solution: design rotors that generate less turbulence in their wakes. Sensitivity simulations show that these turbines also increase the

  3. Modeling the Effect of Herd Immunity and Contagiousness in Mitigating a Smallpox Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeden, Ellie; Fielding, Russel; Steinhouse, Kyle E; Rubin, Ilan N

    2015-07-01

    The smallpox antiviral tecovirimat has recently been purchased by the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile. Given significant uncertainty regarding both the contagiousness of smallpox in a contemporary outbreak and the efficiency of a mass vaccination campaign, vaccine prophylaxis alone may be unable to control a smallpox outbreak following a bioterror attack. Here, we present the results of a compartmental epidemiological model that identifies conditions under which tecovirimat is required to curtail the epidemic by exploring how the interaction between contagiousness and prophylaxis coverage of the affected population affects the ability of the public health response to control a large-scale smallpox outbreak. Each parameter value in the model is based on published empirical data. We describe contagiousness parametrically using a novel method of distributing an assumed R-value over the disease course based on the relative rates of daily viral shedding from human and animal studies of cognate orthopoxvirus infections. Our results suggest that vaccination prophylaxis is sufficient to control the outbreak when caused either by a minimally contagious virus or when a very high percentage of the population receives prophylaxis. As vaccination coverage of the affected population decreases below 70%, vaccine prophylaxis alone is progressively less capable of controlling outbreaks, even those caused by a less contagious virus (R0 less than 4). In these scenarios, tecovirimat treatment is required to control the outbreak (total number of cases under an order of magnitude more than the number of initial infections). The first study to determine the relative importance of smallpox prophylaxis and treatment under a range of highly uncertain epidemiological parameters, this work provides public health decision-makers with an evidence-based guide for responding to a large-scale smallpox outbreak.

  4. Mitigation of turbidity currents in reservoirs with passive retention systems: validation of CFD modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, E.; Alves, E.; Ferreira, R. M. L.

    2012-04-01

    Sediment deposition by continuous turbidity currents may affect eco-environmental river dynamics in natural reservoirs and hinder the maneuverability of bottom discharge gates in dam reservoirs. In recent years, innovative techniques have been proposed to enforce the deposition of turbidity further upstream in the reservoir (and away from the dam), namely, the use of solid and permeable obstacles such as water jet screens , geotextile screens, etc.. The main objective of this study is to validate a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code applied to the simulation of the interaction between a turbidity current and a passive retention system, designed to induce sediment deposition. To accomplish the proposed objective, laboratory tests were conducted where a simple obstacle configuration was subjected to the passage of currents with different initial sediment concentrations. The experimental data was used to build benchmark cases to validate the 3D CFD software ANSYS-CFX. Sensitivity tests of mesh design, turbulence models and discretization requirements were performed. The validation consisted in comparing experimental and numerical results, involving instantaneous and time-averaged sediment concentrations and velocities. In general, a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental values is achieved when: i) realistic outlet conditions are specified, ii) channel roughness is properly calibrated, iii) two equation k - ɛ models are employed iv) a fine mesh is employed near the bottom boundary. Acknowledgements This study was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the project PTDC/ECM/099485/2008. The first author thanks the assistance of Professor Moitinho de Almeida from ICIST and to all members of the project and of the Fluvial Hydraulics group of CEHIDRO.

  5. Moringa oleifera Mitigates Memory Impairment and Neurodegeneration in Animal Model of Age-Related Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chatchada Sutalangka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To date, the preventive strategy against dementia is still essential due to the rapid growth of its prevalence and the limited therapeutic efficacy. Based on the crucial role of oxidative stress in age-related dementia and the antioxidant and nootropic activities of Moringa oleifera, the enhancement of spatial memory and neuroprotection of M. oleifera leaves extract in animal model of age-related dementia was determined. The possible underlying mechanism was also investigated. Male Wistar rats, weighing 180–220 g, were orally given M. oleifera leaves extract at doses of 100, 200, and 400 mg/kg at a period of 7 days before and 7 days after the intracerebroventricular administration of AF64A bilaterally. Then, they were assessed memory, neuron density, MDA level, and the activities of SOD, CAT, GSH-Px, and AChE in hippocampus. The results showed that the extract improved spatial memory and neurodegeneration in CA1, CA2, CA3, and dentate gyrus of hippocampus together with the decreased MDA level and AChE activity but increased SOD and CAT activities. Therefore, our data suggest that M. oleifera leaves extract is the potential cognitive enhancer and neuroprotectant. The possible mechanism might occur partly via the decreased oxidative stress and the enhanced cholinergic function. However, further explorations concerning active ingredient(s are still required.

  6. Moringa oleifera mitigates memory impairment and neurodegeneration in animal model of age-related dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutalangka, Chatchada; Wattanathorn, Jintanaporn; Muchimapura, Supaporn; Thukham-mee, Wipawee

    2013-01-01

    To date, the preventive strategy against dementia is still essential due to the rapid growth of its prevalence and the limited therapeutic efficacy. Based on the crucial role of oxidative stress in age-related dementia and the antioxidant and nootropic activities of Moringa oleifera, the enhancement of spatial memory and neuroprotection of M. oleifera leaves extract in animal model of age-related dementia was determined. The possible underlying mechanism was also investigated. Male Wistar rats, weighing 180-220 g, were orally given M. oleifera leaves extract at doses of 100, 200, and 400 mg/kg at a period of 7 days before and 7 days after the intracerebroventricular administration of AF64A bilaterally. Then, they were assessed memory, neuron density, MDA level, and the activities of SOD, CAT, GSH-Px, and AChE in hippocampus. The results showed that the extract improved spatial memory and neurodegeneration in CA1, CA2, CA3, and dentate gyrus of hippocampus together with the decreased MDA level and AChE activity but increased SOD and CAT activities. Therefore, our data suggest that M. oleifera leaves extract is the potential cognitive enhancer and neuroprotectant. The possible mechanism might occur partly via the decreased oxidative stress and the enhanced cholinergic function. However, further explorations concerning active ingredient(s) are still required.

  7. NASA Perspective and Modeling of Thermal Runaway Propagation Mitigation in Aerospace Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shack, P.; Iannello, C.; Rickman, S.; Button, R.

    2014-01-01

    NASA has traditionally sought to reduce the likelihood of a single cell thermal runaway (TR) in their aerospace batteries to an absolute minimum by employing rigorous screening program of the cells. There was generally a belief that TR propagation resulting in catastrophic failure of the battery was a forgone conclusion for densely packed aerospace lithium-ion batteries. As it turns out, this may not be the case. An increasing number of purportedly TR propagation-resistant batteries are appearing among NASA partners in the commercial sector and the Department of Defense. In the recent update of the battery safety standard (JSC 20793) to address this paradigm shift, the NASA community included requirements for assessing TR severity and identifying simple, low-cost severity reduction measures. Unfortunately, there are no best-practice guidelines for this work in the Agency, so the first project team attempting to meet these requirements would have an undue burden placed upon them. A NASA engineering Safety Center (NESC) team set out to perform pathfinding activities for meeting those requirements. This presentation will provide contextual background to this effort, as well as initial results in attempting to model and simulate TR heat transfer and propagation within battery designs.

  8. Single event transient modeling and mitigation techniques for mixed-signal delay locked loop (DLL) and clock circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maillard, Pierre

    The purpose of this PhD work has been to investigate, model, test, develop and provide hardening techniques and guidelines for the mitigation of single event transients (SETs) in analog mixed-signal (AMS) delay locked loops (DLLs) for radiation-hardened applications. Delay-locked-loops (DLLs) are circuit substructures that are present in complex ASIC and system-on-a-chip designs. These circuits are widely used in on-chip clock distribution systems to reduce clock skew, to reduce jitter noise, and to recover clock signals at regional points within a global clock distribution system. DLLs are critical to the performance of many clock distribution systems, and in turn, the overall performance of the associated integrated system; as such, complex systems often employ multiple DLLs for clock deskew and distribution tasks. In radiation environments such as on-orbit, these critical circuits represent at-risk points of malfunction for large sections of integrated circuits due to vulnerabilities to radiation-generated transients (i.e. single event transients) that fan out across the system. The analysis of single event effects in analog DLLs has shown that each DLL sub-circuit primitive is vulnerable to single event transients. However, we have identified the voltage controlled delay line (VCDL) sub-circuit as the most sensitive to radiation-induced single event effects generating missing clock pulses that increase with the operating frequency of the circuit. This vulnerability increases with multiple instantiation of DLLs as clock distribution nodes throughout an integrated system on a chip. To our knowledge, no complete work in the rad-hard community regarding the hardening of mixed-signal DLLs against single event effects (missing pulses) has been developed. Most of the work present in the literature applies the "brute force" and well-established digital technique of triple modular redundancy (TMR) to the digital subcomponents. We have developed two novel design

  9. Pressurized air injection in an axial hydro-turbine model for the mitigation of tip leakage cavitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivetti, A.; Angulo, M.; Lucino, C.; Liscia, S.

    2015-12-01

    Tip leakage vortex cavitation in axial hydro-turbines may cause erosion, noise and vibration. Damage due to cavitation can be found at the tip of the runner blades on the low pressure side and the discharge ring. In some cases, the erosion follows an oscillatory pattern that is related to the number of guide vanes. That might suggest that a relationship exists between the flow through the guide vanes and the tip vortex cavitating core that induces this kind of erosion. On the other hand, it is known that air injection has a beneficial effect on reducing the damage by cavitation. In this paper, a methodology to identify the interaction between guide vanes and tip vortex cavitation is presented and the effect of air injection in reducing this particular kind of erosion was studied over a range of operating conditions on a Kaplan scale model. It was found that air injection, at the expense of slightly reducing the efficiency of the turbine, mitigates the erosive potential of tip leakage cavitation, attenuates the interaction between the flow through the guide vanes and the tip vortex and decreases the level of vibration of the structural components.

  10. Modelling Pb, Zn and As transfer from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems during the ice-free season in three Pyrenean catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacardit, Montserrat; Camarero, Lluís

    2010-11-01

    Long-range atmospheric trace element contamination affecting natural systems has occurred since early historical times in the Northern Hemisphere. In relatively remote sites, soils are the largest reservoir of these airborne contaminants. Trace elements stored in soils can later be remobilized and thus soils are a potential delayed, long-lasting source of contamination for the aquatic ecosystems. Here we measured the atmospheric deposition and in-lake fluxes in order to model the transfer of Pb, Zn and As from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems during the snow- and ice-free season in three mountain catchments in the Central Pyrenees. According to the model, there was a net export of Pb and As from the catchments. We postulate that accumulated anthropogenic Pb contamination and the weathering of As-rich rocks are the most likely sources. In contrast, Zn was largely retained in the catchment. For Pb and As, the terrestrial inputs were >91% and for Zn were ~71% of the total inputs to the lakes. Nearly all Pb entering the lakes was retained in the sediments whereas 5-38% of As and Zn was lost through the outflow. We were unable to adjust the model for Zn for one of the lakes. The uptake by macrophytes could be a considerable sink for Zn, which was not considered in our transport model.

  11. Environmental enrichment mitigates cognitive deficits in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowsky, Joanna L; Melnikova, Tatiana; Fadale, Daniel J; Xu, Guilian M; Slunt, Hilda H; Gonzales, Victoria; Younkin, Linda H; Younkin, Steven G; Borchelt, David R; Savonenko, Alena V

    2005-05-25

    Epidemiological studies suggest that individuals with greater education or more cognitively demanding occupations have diminished risk of developing dementia. We wanted to test whether this effect could be recapitulated in rodents using environmental enrichment, a paradigm well documented to attenuate behavioral deficits induced by various pathological insults. Here, we demonstrate that learning and memory deficits observed in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease can be ameliorated by enrichment. Female transgenic mice overexpressing amyloid precursor protein and/or presenilin-1 and nontransgenic controls were placed into enriched or standard cages at 2 months of age and tested for cognitive behavior after 6 months of differential housing. Enrichment significantly improved performance of all genotypes in the radial water maze and in the classic and repeated-reversal versions of the Morris water maze. However, enrichment did not benefit all genotypes equally. Mice overproducing amyloid-beta (Abeta), particularly those with amyloid deposits, showed weaker memory for the platform location in the classic Morris water maze and learned new platform positions in the repeated-reversals task less quickly than their nontransgenic cagemates. Nonetheless, enrichment normalized the performance of Abeta-overproducing mice to the level of standard-housed nontransgenic mice. Moreover, this functional preservation occurred despite increased neuritic plaque burden in the hippocampus of double-transgenic animals and elevated steady-state Abeta levels, because both endogenous and transgene-derived Abeta are increased in enriched animals. These results demonstrate that the generation of Abeta in vivo and its impact on the function of the nervous system can be strongly modulated by environmental factors.

  12. Countries' climate mitigation commitments under the 'South-North Dialogue' Proposal. A quantitative analysis using the FAIR 2.1 world model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Elzen, M.G.J.

    2005-07-01

    The 'South-North Dialogue Proposal', developed by researchers from both developing and industrialised countries, outlines an approach for an 'equitable' differentiation of future climate mitigation commitments among developed and developing countries. This approach is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. The report provides a quantitative analysis of the implications of the proposal in terms of countries' commitments and costs. The analysis focuses on a 'political willingness' scenario and on four scenarios leading to the stabilisation of CO2-equivalent concentrations at 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm, respectively. Use is made of the new FAIR 2.1 world model, i.e. the FAIR 2.1 model at the level of countries, using as input data for population, GDP and emissions from emission scenarios at the national level. The analysis shows that for the stringent stabilisation targets many developing countries will have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries adopt ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The political willingness scenario will probably not suffice to limit warming of the earth's atmosphere to a level under 20C.

  13. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-12-01

    The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the first set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed

  14. Heat Transfer Salts for Nuclear Reactor Systems - Chemistry Control, Corrosion Mitigation, and Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Mark [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Sridharan, Kumar [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Morgan, Dane [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Peterson, Per [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Calderoni, Pattrick [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Scheele, Randall [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Casekka, Andrew [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); McNamara, Bruce [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2015-01-22

    The concept of a molten salt reactor has existed for nearly sixty years. Previously all work was done during a large collaborative effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, culminating in a research reactor which operated for 15,000 hours without major error. This technical success has garnished interest in modern, high temperature, reactor schemes. Research using molten fluoride salts for nuclear applications requires a steady supply of high grade molten salts. There is no bulk supplier of research grade fluoride salts in the world, so a facility which could provide all the salt needed for testing at the University of Wisconsin had to be produced. Two salt purification devices were made for this purpose, a large scale purifier, and a small scale purifier, each designed to clean the salts from impurities and reduce their corrosion potential. As of now, the small scale has performed with flibe salt, hydrogen, and hydrogen fluoride, yielding clean salt. This salt is currently being used in corrosion testing facilities at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Wisconsin. Working with the beryllium based salts requires extensive safety measures and health monitoring to prevent the development of acute or chronic beryllium disease, two pulmonary diseases created by an allergic reaction to beryllium in the lungs. Extensive health monitoring, engineering controls, and environment monitoring had to be set up with the University of Wisconsin department of Environment, Health and Safety. The hydrogen fluoride required for purification was also an extreme health hazard requiring thoughtful planning and execution. These dangers have made research a slow and tedious process. Simple processes, such as chemical handling and clean-up, can take large amounts of ingenuity and time. Other work has complemented the experimental research at Wisconsin to advance high temperature reactor goals. Modeling work has been performed in house to re

  15. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    movements caused severe damage to roads and infrastructure. The second crisis ended up in late June: the hydrological model FLaIR was then successfully tested against the known dates of activation of the slope movement, by using a local rain series [3]. Meanwhile, technical support was being assured to the Municipality to optimize geological prospections, monitoring, and design of remedial works of a master plan. A third activation occurred during the night of 15 March 2013, when planned remedial works had not been completed yet. By applying the hydrological model SAKe [4, 5], this activation could be predicted, again permitting the prompt adoption of mitigation measures. Such activation was triggered by rains smaller and shorter than those that caused previous activations, perhaps indicating an apparent increasing fragility of the slope. Changes in slope stability conditions before and after the construction of the remedial works are being investigated. Critical rain conditions and groundwater levels for landslide activation are in fact expected to change, depending on combined effects of natural weakening vs. artificial strengthening. Monitoring will allow to quantitatively verify the new relationships between rainfall, groundwater and slope stability. References [1] Iovine G., Iaquinta P. & Terranova O. (2009). In Anderssen, Braddock & Newham (Eds.), Proc. 18th World IMACS Congr. and MODSIM09 Int. Congr. on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 2686-2693. [2] Iovine G., Lollino P., Gariano S.L. & Terranova O.G. (2010). NHESS, 10, 2341-2354. [3] Capparelli G., Iaquinta P., Iovine G., Terranova O.G. & Versace P. (2012). Natural Hazards, 61(1), pp.247-256. [4] Terranova O.G., Iaquinta P., Gariano S.L., Greco R. & Iovine G. (2013) In: Landslide Science and Practice, Margottini, Canuti, Sassa (Eds.), Vol. 3, pp.73-79. [5] Terranova O.G., Gariano S.L., Iaquinta P. & Iovine G.G.R. (2015). Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1955-1978.

  16. Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Maurice G.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammed; Thom, Ron; Quattrochi, Dale; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellism Jean; Watson, Brian; Rodriguez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2009-01-01

    There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic

  17. Lake Bathymetric Aquatic Vegetation

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Aquatic vegetation represented as polygon features, coded with vegetation type (emergent, submergent, etc.) and field survey date. Polygons were digitized from...

  18. Modelling site-specific N2O emission factors from Austrian agricultural soils for targeted mitigation measures (NitroAustria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amon, Barbara; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kasper, Martina; Foldal, Cecilie; Schiefer, Jasmin; Kitzler, Barbara; Schwarzl, Bettina; Zethner, Gerhard; Anderl, Michael; Sedy, Katrin; Gaugitsch, Helmut; Dersch, Georg; Baumgarten, Andreas; Haas, Edwin; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    community can only profit from NitroAustria, if model developments and results are integrated into the national emission inventory. Trade-offs between different greenhouse gas emissions and other nitrogen losses have to be discussed. The derivation of suitable mitigation options by optimization of common and evaluation of potential management practices for current and future climatic conditions is crucial to minimize threats to the environment while ensuring the long-term productivity and sustainability of agro-ecosystems. From the results gained in NitroAustria we will be able to show potential environmental impacts and propose measures for a policy framework towards climate friendly farming.

  19. Modelling the mitigation of hydrogen deflagrations in a nuclear waste silo ullage by depleting the oxygen concentration with nitrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holborn, P.G., E-mail: holborpg@lsbu.ac.uk; Battersby, P.; Ingram, J.M.; Averill, A.F.; Nolan, P.F.

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Examine the effect of reduced O{sub 2} on H{sub 2} burning velocity. • Model the effect of reduced oxygen level on overpressure for a transient H{sub 2} release. • Low O{sub 2} levels significantly reduce H{sub 2} burning velocity and explosion overpressure. -- Abstract: It is expected that significant transient releases of hydrogen could occur during the decommissioning of a nuclear waste storage plant that would result in a transient flammable atmosphere. Interest has been expressed in the use of nitrogen dilution in a vented silo ullage space in order to reduce the oxygen level and thereby mitigate the overpressure rise should a hydrogen–air deflagration occur. In the work presented here the data characterising the influence of oxygen depletion via nitrogen dilution upon the burning velocity of hydrogen–air mixtures have been obtained using the COSILAB code (and also compared with experimental test data). These data have then been used with the FLACS-HYDROGEN CFD-tool to try to predict the potential explosion overpressure reduction that might be achieved using oxygen depletion (via nitrogen dilution), for a transient hydrogen bubble sudden gaseous release (SGR) scenario occurring in a silo ullage type geometry. The simulation results suggest that using nitrogen dilution to deplete the oxygen levels to 12.5% or 9.9% would produce only a relatively modest reduction in the predicted peak overpressure. However, with an oxygen depletion level of 7%, the rate of pressure rise is more substantially slowed and the predicted maximum pressure rise is significantly reduced.

  20. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  1. Assessment and characterisation of yeast-based products intended to mitigate ochratoxin exposure using in vitro and in vivo models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfohl-Leszkowicz, A; Hadjeba-Medjdoub, K; Ballet, N; Schrickx, J; Fink-Gremmels, J

    2015-01-01

    in cell viability, but at the same time increased the OTA-DNA adducts formation. These findings indicate the need for an in-depth characterisation of yeast-based products used as mycotoxin-mitigating feed additives, in in vivo models with target animal species taking into account not only their ability to sequester toxins in the gastrointestinal tract but also their potential effects on the biotransformation of mycotoxins.

  2. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2012-01-01

    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  3. Aquatic polymers can drive pathogen transmission in coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Karen; Krusor, Colin; Mazzillo, Fernanda F M; Conrad, Patricia A; Largier, John L; Mazet, Jonna A K; Silver, Mary W

    2014-11-22

    Gelatinous polymers including extracellular polymeric substances (EPSs) are fundamental to biophysical processes in aquatic habitats, including mediating aggregation processes and functioning as the matrix of biofilms. Yet insight into the impact of these sticky molecules on the environmental transmission of pathogens in the ocean is limited. We used the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii as a model to evaluate polymer-mediated mechanisms that promote transmission of terrestrially derived pathogens to marine fauna and humans. We show that transparent exopolymer particles, a particulate form of EPS, enhance T. gondii association with marine aggregates, material consumed by organisms otherwise unable to access micrometre-sized particles. Adhesion to EPS biofilms on macroalgae also captures T. gondii from the water, enabling uptake of pathogens by invertebrates that feed on kelp surfaces. We demonstrate the acquisition, concentration and retention of T. gondii by kelp-grazing snails, which can transmit T. gondii to threatened California sea otters. Results highlight novel mechanisms whereby aquatic polymers facilitate incorporation of pathogens into food webs via association with particle aggregates and biofilms. Identifying the critical role of invisible polymers in transmission of pathogens in the ocean represents a fundamental advance in understanding and mitigating the health impacts of coastal habitat pollution with contaminated runoff.

  4. African Journals Online: Aquatic Sciences

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 1 - 10 of 10 ... Acceptable topics include aquatic biology, aquatic resources management, aquatic ... Tropical Freshwater Biology promotes the publication of scientific ... freshwater biology in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

  5. Two dose-estimation models CSA-N288.1 and Nureg 1.109, 1.113 - compared for chronic aquatic releases from nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheppard, S.C. [ECOMatters Inc., Pinawa, Manitoba (Canada); Klukas, M.H. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada); Peterson, S.-R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, California (United States)

    2000-04-01

    Both the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US-NRC) have published guidelines for the calculation of doses to the public due to emissions from nuclear facilities. In the sale of CANDU reactors overseas, either of these guidelines may be used as part of the approval process in the recipient country. This study compares the aquatic exposure pathways described in the guidelines. These include direct consumption of contaminated water and food, and exposure to contaminated sediments. The CSA and US-NRC guidelines for estimating dilution of aquatic emissions are of a general nature and the choice of model used to quantify dilution is left to the user. The models prescribed for the different exposure pathways by these two regulatory guides are similar in many attributes. Many of the recommended parameter values are identical and many of the formulations are either identical, or become identical under general conditions. However, despite these similarities, there is substantial variation between dose estimates for a common case. These differences are limited to certain nuclides and exposure pathways and are primarily due to differences in parameter values prescribed by the guidelines. The total dose from all pathways and from all nuclides for the case considered is within a factor of 1.3 for the two models. The convergence in results for the total dose for all radionuclides largely reflects the similarity in the way the models deal with the dominant dose contributor, tritium. Considering the results for each radionuclide, however, the models differ more and on average the CSA model estimates a 20-fold higher dose. (author)

  6. Development of advanced process-based model towards evaluation of boundless biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial-aquatic continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Tadanobu; Maksyutov, Shamil

    2014-05-01

    Recent research shows inland water may play some role in continental biogeochemical cycling though its contribution has remained uncertain due to a paucity of data (Battin et al. 2009). The author has developed process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model (Nakayama, 2008a-b, 2010, 2011a-b, 2012a-c, 2013; Nakayama and Fujita, 2010; Nakayama and Hashimoto, 2011; Nakayama and Shankman, 2013a-b; Nakayama and Watanabe, 2004, 2006, 2008a-b; Nakayama et al., 2006, 2007, 2010, 2012), which incorporates surface-groundwater interactions, includes up- and down-scaling processes between local, regional and global scales, and can simulate iteratively nonlinear feedback between hydrologic, geomorphic, and ecological processes. In this study, NICE was extended to evaluate global hydrologic cycle by using various global datasets. The simulated result agreed reasonably with that in the previous research (Fan et al., 2013) and extended to clarify further eco-hydrological process in global scale. Then, NICE was further developed to incorporate the biogeochemical cycle including the reaction between inorganic and organic carbons (DOC, POC, DIC, pCO2, etc.) in the biosphere (terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems including surface water and groundwater). The model simulated the carbon cycle, for example, CO2 evasion from inland water in global scale, which is relatively in good agreement in that estimated by empirical relation using the previous pCO2 data (Aufdenkampe et al., 2011; Global River Chemistry Database, 2013). This simulation system would play important role in identification of full greenhouse gas balance of the biosphere and spatio-temporal hot spots in boundless biogeochemical cycle (Cole et al. 2007; Frei et al. 2012). References; Aufdenkampe, A.K., et al., Front. Ecol. Environ., doi:10.1890/100014, 2011. Battin, T.J., et al., Nat. Geosci., 2, 598-600, 2009. Cole, J.J. et al., Ecosystems, doi:10.1007/s10021-006-9013-8, 2007. Fan, Y. et al

  7. Modelling of spatial structure of divertor footprints caused by edge-localized modes mitigated by magnetic perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Cahyna, Pavel; Huijsmans, Guido T A; Orain, Francois; Morales, Jorge; Kirk, Andrew; Thornton, Andrew J; Pamela, Stanislas; Panek, Radomir; Hoelzl, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    Resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) can mitigate the edge-localized modes (ELMs), i.e. cause a change of the ELM character towards smaller energy loss and higher frequency. During mitigation a change of the spatial structure of ELM loads on divertor was observed on DIII-D and MAST: the power is deposited predominantly in the footprint structures formed by the magnetic perturbation. In the present contribution we develop a theory explaining this effect, based on the idea that part of the ELM loss is caused by parallel transport in the homoclinic tangle formed by the magnetic perturbation of the ELM. The modified tangle resulting from the combination of the ELM perturbation and the applied RMP has the expected property of bringing open field lines in the same areas as the tangle from the RMP alone. We show that this explanation is consistent with features of the mitigated ELMs on MAST. We in addition validated our theory by an analysis of simulations of mitigated ELMs using the code JOREK. We produced detail...

  8. Mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions from animal production systems: synergy between measuring and modelling at different scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenigen, van J.W.; Schils, R.L.M.; Velthof, G.L.; Kuikman, P.J.; Oudendag, D.A.; Oenema, O.

    2008-01-01

    Animal production systems are large and complex sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Emissions from these systems are expected to rise over the coming decades due to the increasing global population and shifting diets, unless appropriate mitigation str

  9. Analytical model for the design of in situ horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) for the mitigation of chlorinated solvent vapors in the unsaturated zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verginelli, Iason; Capobianco, Oriana; Hartog, Niels; Baciocchi, Renato

    2017-02-01

    In this work we introduce a 1-D analytical solution that can be used for the design of horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) as a vapor mitigation system at sites contaminated by chlorinated solvents. The developed model incorporates a transient diffusion-dominated transport with a second-order reaction rate constant. Furthermore, the model accounts for the HPRB lifetime as a function of the oxidant consumption by reaction with upward vapors and its progressive dissolution and leaching by infiltrating water. Simulation results by this new model closely replicate previous lab-scale tests carried out on trichloroethylene (TCE) using a HPRB containing a mixture of potassium permanganate, water and sand. In view of field applications, design criteria, in terms of the minimum HPRB thickness required to attenuate vapors at acceptable risk-based levels and the expected HPRB lifetime, are determined from site-specific conditions such as vapor source concentration, water infiltration rate and HPRB mixture. The results clearly show the field-scale feasibility of this alternative vapor mitigation system for the treatment of chlorinated solvents. Depending on the oxidation kinetic of the target contaminant, a 1 m thick HPRB can ensure an attenuation of vapor concentrations of orders of magnitude up to 20 years, even for vapor source concentrations up to 10 g/m3. A demonstrative application for representative contaminated site conditions also shows the feasibility of this mitigation system from an economical point of view with capital costs potentially somewhat lower than those of other remediation options, such as soil vapor extraction systems. Overall, based on the experimental and theoretical evaluation thus far, field-scale tests are warranted to verify the potential and cost-effectiveness of HPRBs for vapor mitigation control under various conditions of application.

  10. Ag nanoparticles: size- and surface-dependent effects on model aquatic organisms and uptake evaluation with NanoSIMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgantzopoulou, Anastasia; Balachandran, Yekkuni L; Rosenkranz, Philipp; Dusinska, Maria; Lankoff, Anna; Wojewodzka, Maria; Kruszewski, Marcin; Guignard, Cédric; Audinot, Jean-Nicolas; Girija, Shanmugam; Hoffmann, Lucien; Gutleb, Arno C

    2013-11-01

    This study aims to assess the effects of Ag particles synthesised by a chemical (Ag 20, 200 nm) and biological method (Ag 23, 27 nm) in aquatic organisms: the bacterium Vibrio fischeri, the alga Desmodesmus subspicatus and the crustacean Daphnia magna. Ag particles exerted toxic effects in all organisms studied with Ag particles 23 nm being the most potent. Although soluble Ag was released in all media, the differences between the tested Ag particles still cannot be explained solely based on soluble Ag. NanoSIMS analysis performed with D. magna showed that apart from their localisation in the gut lumen, Ag 200 nm and Ag NPs 23 nm seemed to pass through the epithelial barrier as well. Ag NPs 23 nm localised in specific areas seemed to be within the ovaries. This study strengthens the argument that size, method of synthesis as well as surface chemistry may affect the uptake and toxic effects of Ag NPs.

  11. Polyvinylpyrrolidone and arsenic-induced changes in biological responses of model aquatic organisms exposed to iron-based nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llaneza, Verónica; Rodea-Palomares, Ismael; Zhou, Zuo; Rosal, Roberto; Fernández-Pina, Francisca; Bonzongo, Jean-Claude J.

    2016-08-01

    The efficiency of zero-valent iron particles used in the remediation of contaminated groundwater has, with the emergence of nanotechnology, stimulated interest on the use of nano-size particles to take advantage of high-specific surface area and reactivity characteristics of nanoparticles (NPs). Accordingly, engineered iron-NPs are among the most widely used nanomaterials for in situ remediation. However, while several ecotoxicity studies have been conducted to investigate the adverse impacts of these NPs on aquatic organisms, research on the implications of spent iron-based NPs is lacking. In this study, a comparative approach is used, in which the biological effects of three iron-based NPs (Fe3O4 and γ-Fe2O3 NPs with particle sizes ranging from 20 to 50 nm, and Fe0-NPs with an average particle size of 40 nm) on Raphidocelis subcapitata (formely known as Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and Daphnia magna were investigated using both as-prepared and pollutant-doped Fe-based NPs. For the latter, arsenic (As) was used as example sorbed pollutant. The results show that improved degree of NP dispersion by use of polyvinylpyrrolidone overlapped with both increased arsenic adsorption capacity and toxicity to the tested organisms. For R. subcapitata, Fe-oxide NPs were more toxic than Fe0-NPs, due primarily to differences in the degree of NPs aggregation and ability to produce reactive oxygen species. For the invertebrate D. magna, a similar trend of biological responses was observed, except that sorption of As to Fe0-NPs significantly increased the toxic response when compared to R. subcapitata. Overall, these findings point to the need for research on downstream implications of NP-pollutant complexes generated during water treatment by injection of NPs into aquatic systems.

  12. Science to support aquatic animal health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Maureen K.; Harris, M. Camille

    2016-10-18

    Healthy aquatic ecosystems are home to a diversity of plants, invertebrates, fish and wildlife. Aquatic animal populations face unprecedented threats to their health and survival from climate change, water shortages, habitat alteration, invasive species and environmental contaminants. These environmental stressors can directly impact the prevalence and severity of disease in aquatic populations. For example, periodic fish kills in the upper Chesapeake Bay Watershed are associated with many different opportunistic pathogens that proliferate in stressed fish populations. An estimated 80 percent of endangered juvenile Puget Sound steelhead trout die within two weeks of entering the marine environment, and a role for disease in these losses is being investigated. The introduction of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) into the Great Lakes—a fishery worth an estimated 7 billion dollars annually—resulted in widespread fish die-offs and virus detections in 28 different fish species. Millions of dying sea stars along the west coast of North America have led to investigations into sea star wasting disease. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are assisting managers with these issues through ecological investigations of aquatic animal diseases, field surveillance, and research to promote the development of mitigation strategies.

  13. Modeled and monitored variation in space and time of PCB-153 concentrations in air, sediment, soil and aquatic biota on a European scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauck, Mara; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Hollander, Anne; Hendriks, A Jan; van de Meent, Dik

    2010-08-15

    We evaluated various modeling options for estimating concentrations of PCB-153 in the environment and in biota across Europe, using a nested multimedia fate model coupled with a bioaccumulation model. The most detailed model set up estimates concentrations in air, soil, fresh water sediment and fresh water biota with spatially explicit environmental characteristics and spatially explicit emissions to air and water in the period 1930-2005. Model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE(log)), based on the difference between estimated and measured concentrations. The RMSE(log) was 5.4 for air, 5.6-6.3 for sediment and biota, and 5.5 for soil in the most detailed model scenario. Generally, model estimations tended to underestimate observed values for all compartments, except air. The decline in observed concentrations was also slightly underestimated by the model for the period where measurements were available (1989-2002). Applying a generic model setup with averaged emissions and averaged environmental characteristics, the RMSE(log) increased to 21 for air and 49 for sediment. For soil the RMSE(log) decreased to 3.5. We found that including spatial variation in emissions was most relevant for all compartments, except soil, while including spatial variation in environmental characteristics was less influential. For improving predictions of concentrations in sediment and aquatic biota, including emissions to water was found to be relevant as well.

  14. Should Habitat Trading Be Based on Mitigation Ratios Derived from Landscape Indices? A Model-Based Analysis of Compensatory Restoration Options for the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Douglas J.; Jones, Michael L.

    2008-10-01

    Many species of conservation concern are spatially structured and require dispersal to be persistent. For such species, altering the distribution of suitable habitats on the landscape can affect population dynamics in ways that are difficult to predict from simple models. We argue that for such species, individual-based and spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) should be used to determine appropriate levels of off-site restoration to compensate for on-site loss of ecologic resources. Such approaches are necessary when interactions between biologic processes occur at different spatial scales (i.e., local [recruitment] and landscape [migration]). The sites of restoration and habitat loss may be linked to each other, but, more importantly, they may be linked to other resources in the landscape by regional biologic processes, primarily migration. The common management approach for determining appropriate levels of off-site restoration is to derive mitigation ratios based on best professional judgment or pre-existing data. Mitigation ratios assume that the ecologic benefits at the site of restoration are independent of the ecologic costs at the site of habitat loss. Using an SEPM for endangered red-cockaded woodpeckers, we show that the spatial configuration of habitat restoration can simultaneously influence both the rate of recruitment within breeding groups and the rate of migration among groups, implying that simple mitigation ratios may be inadequate.

  15. Development of virtual patient models for permanent implant brachytherapy Monte Carlo dose calculations: interdependence of CT image artifact mitigation and tissue assignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miksys, N.; Xu, C.; Beaulieu, L.; Thomson, R. M.

    2015-08-01

    This work investigates and compares CT image metallic artifact reduction (MAR) methods and tissue assignment schemes (TAS) for the development of virtual patient models for permanent implant brachytherapy Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations. Four MAR techniques are investigated to mitigate seed artifacts from post-implant CT images of a homogeneous phantom and eight prostate patients: a raw sinogram approach using the original CT scanner data and three methods (simple threshold replacement (STR), 3D median filter, and virtual sinogram) requiring only the reconstructed CT image. Virtual patient models are developed using six TAS ranging from the AAPM-ESTRO-ABG TG-186 basic approach of assigning uniform density tissues (resulting in a model not dependent on MAR) to more complex models assigning prostate, calcification, and mixtures of prostate and calcification using CT-derived densities. The EGSnrc user-code BrachyDose is employed to calculate dose distributions. All four MAR methods eliminate bright seed spot artifacts, and the image-based methods provide comparable mitigation of artifacts compared with the raw sinogram approach. However, each MAR technique has limitations: STR is unable to mitigate low CT number artifacts, the median filter blurs the image which challenges the preservation of tissue heterogeneities, and both sinogram approaches introduce new streaks. Large local dose differences are generally due to differences in voxel tissue-type rather than mass density. The largest differences in target dose metrics (D90, V100, V150), over 50% lower compared to the other models, are when uncorrected CT images are used with TAS that consider calcifications. Metrics found using models which include calcifications are generally a few percent lower than prostate-only models. Generally, metrics from any MAR method and any TAS which considers calcifications agree within 6%. Overall, the studied MAR methods and TAS show promise for further retrospective MC dose

  16. 40 CFR 230.93 - General compensatory mitigation requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... district engineer must assess the likelihood for ecological success and sustainability, the location of the compensation site relative to the impact site and their significance within the watershed, and the costs of the... position and resource type of compensatory mitigation projects for the sustainability of aquatic...

  17. Land use planning and social equity in North Carolina's compensatory wetland and stream mitigation programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    BenDor, Todd; Stewart, Audrey

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Clean Water Act requires compensatory mitigation for wetland and stream damage through restoration of damaged aquatic ecosystems. We evaluate the North Carolina's Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP), a state agency responsible for compensatory mitigation. We compare communities gaining and losing aquatic resources during mitigation, finding new types of socioeconomic disparities that contradict previous studies of mitigation program behavior. We find average distances between impact and mitigation sites for streams (43.53 km) and wetlands (50.3 km) to be larger in North Carolina than in off-site mitigation programs in other regions previously studied. We also find that aquatic resources in the State are lost from urbanized areas that are more affluent, white, and highly educated, and mitigated at sites in rural areas that are less affluent, less well educated, and have a higher percentage of minorities. We also analyze the relationship between urban growth indicators and EEP accumulation of compensation sites. Growth indicators and long-term population projections are uncorrelated with both projected transportation impacts and advance mitigation acquired by the EEP, suggesting that growth considerations can be more effectively incorporated into the EEP's planning process. We explore the possibility that spatial mismatches could develop between watersheds that are rapidly growing and those that are gaining mitigation. We make recommendations for ways that regulators incorporate growth indicators into the mitigation planning process.

  18. Land Use Planning and Social Equity in North Carolina's Compensatory Wetland and Stream Mitigation Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendor, Todd; Stewart, Audrey

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Clean Water Act requires compensatory mitigation for wetland and stream damage through restoration of damaged aquatic ecosystems. We evaluate the North Carolina's Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP), a state agency responsible for compensatory mitigation. We compare communities gaining and losing aquatic resources during mitigation, finding new types of socioeconomic disparities that contradict previous studies of mitigation program behavior. We find average distances between impact and mitigation sites for streams (43.53 km) and wetlands (50.3 km) to be larger in North Carolina than in off-site mitigation programs in other regions previously studied. We also find that aquatic resources in the State are lost from urbanized areas that are more affluent, white, and highly educated, and mitigated at sites in rural areas that are less affluent, less well educated, and have a higher percentage of minorities. We also analyze the relationship between urban growth indicators and EEP accumulation of compensation sites. Growth indicators and long-term population projections are uncorrelated with both projected transportation impacts and advance mitigation acquired by the EEP, suggesting that growth considerations can be more effectively incorporated into the EEP's planning process. We explore the possibility that spatial mismatches could develop between watersheds that are rapidly growing and those that are gaining mitigation. We make recommendations for ways that regulators incorporate growth indicators into the mitigation planning process.

  19. Mitigation : Closed Basin Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The upcoming meeting on waterfowl mitigation for the Closed Basin Project will have several people talk about possible changes to the waterfowl mitigation program. A...

  20. Aquatic species project report: FY 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, L.M. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Sprague, S. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-04-01

    This report summarizes the progress and research accomplishments of the Aquatic Species Project, which is managed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the US Department of Energy. The project is focused on applying genetic engineering techniques to enhance the lipid, or oil, production of microalgae. Those lipids can be extracted and processed into high-energy liquid fuels such as diesel. Because microalgae require carbon dioxide, a major ``greenhouse`` gas, as a nutrient, project researchers also study the role that microalgae could play in a possible global climate change mitigation strategy.

  1. Aquatic species project report: FY 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, L.M. (National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)); Sprague, S. (USDOE, Washington, DC (United States))

    1992-04-01

    This report summarizes the progress and research accomplishments of the Aquatic Species Project, which is managed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the US Department of Energy. The project is focused on applying genetic engineering techniques to enhance the lipid, or oil, production of microalgae. Those lipids can be extracted and processed into high-energy liquid fuels such as diesel. Because microalgae require carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse'' gas, as a nutrient, project researchers also study the role that microalgae could play in a possible global climate change mitigation strategy.

  2. Production in aquatic macrophyte communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Binzer, Thomas; Sand-Jensen, Kaj

    2002-01-01

    -dimensional structure because of the strong drag and shear forces of moving water. This difference in canopy structure has been suggested to account for the three- to fivefold higher gross production rates in terrestrial than aquatic communities. To evaluate the effect of community structure in aquatic habitats, we...... to distribute photons evenly between the photosynthetic tissues. As scattering and attenuation in the water column increase, the effect of thallus structure on production declines and thin transparent macrophytes are more efficient at utilizing light than thick opaque macrophytes. The results confirm...... combined a simple mechanistic model and empirical measurements on artificially structured macroalgal communities (Ulva lactuca) with varying thallus absorptance and community density. Predicted and measured values corresponded closely and revealed that gross production in high-light environments...

  3. A Method for Application of Classification Tree Models to Map Aquatic Vegetation Using Remotely Sensed Images from Different Sensors and Dates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Cai

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In previous attempts to identify aquatic vegetation from remotely-sensed images using classification trees (CT, the images used to apply CT models to different times or locations necessarily originated from the same satellite sensor as that from which the original images used in model development came, greatly limiting the application of CT. We have developed an effective normalization method to improve the robustness of CT models when applied to images originating from different sensors and dates. A total of 965 ground-truth samples of aquatic vegetation types were obtained in 2009 and 2010 in Taihu Lake, China. Using relevant spectral indices (SI as classifiers, we manually developed a stable CT model structure and then applied a standard CT algorithm to obtain quantitative (optimal thresholds from 2009 ground-truth data and images from Landsat7-ETM+, HJ-1B-CCD, Landsat5-TM and ALOS-AVNIR-2 sensors. Optimal CT thresholds produced average classification accuracies of 78.1%, 84.7% and 74.0% for emergent vegetation, floating-leaf vegetation and submerged vegetation, respectively. However, the optimal CT thresholds for different sensor images differed from each other, with an average relative variation (RV of 6.40%. We developed and evaluated three new approaches to normalizing the images. The best-performing method (Method of 0.1% index scaling normalized the SI images using tailored percentages of extreme pixel values. Using the images normalized by Method of 0.1% index scaling, CT models for a particular sensor in which thresholds were replaced by those from the models developed for images originating from other sensors provided average classification accuracies of 76.0%, 82.8% and 68.9% for emergent vegetation, floating-leaf vegetation and submerged vegetation, respectively. Applying the CT models developed for normalized 2009 images to 2010 images resulted in high classification (78.0%–93.3% and overall (92.0%–93.1% accuracies. Our

  4. Aquatic Research Laboratory (ARL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Columbia River and groundwater well water sources are delivered to the Aquatic Research Laboratory (ARL), where these resources are used to conduct research on fish...

  5. Aquatic Life Benchmarks

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Aquatic Life Benchmarks is an EPA-developed set of criteria for freshwater species. These benchmarks are based on toxicity values reviewed by EPA and used in the...

  6. Aquatic Research Laboratory (ARL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Columbia River and groundwater well water sources are delivered to the Aquatic Research Laboratory (ARL), where these resources are used to conduct research on fish...

  7. Aquatic Life Criteria - Atrazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Documents pertaining to Acute and Chronic Ambient Water Quality Aquatic Life Criteria for Atrazine (Freshwater and Salt Water). This document contains the safe levels of Atrazine in water that should protect to the majority of species.

  8. Respiration in Aquatic Insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacFarland, John

    1985-01-01

    This article: (1) explains the respiratory patterns of several freshwater insects; (2) describes the differences and mechanisms of spiracular cutaneous, and gill respiration; and (3) discusses behavioral aspects of selected aquatic insects. (ML)

  9. Molecular ecology of aquatic microbes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    Abstracts of reports are presented from a meeting on Molecular Ecology of Aquatic Microbes. Topics included: opportunities offered to aquatic ecology by molecular biology; the role of aquatic microbes in biogeochemical cycles; characterization of the microbial community; the effect of the environment on aquatic microbes; and the targeting of specific biological processes.

  10. ZOONOSIS OF AQUATICAL ORGANISMS

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    Aquatic organisms play a very important role in human nutrition. They also pose a real threat for human health by causing various diseases. Parasites, bacteria and viruses may either directly or indirectly be carried from aquatic organisms to humans. Disease outbreaks are influenced by many factors among which decreased immune response and feeding habits and higyene are most important. More frequent occuence of foodborne diseases has a number of reasons, including international travel and tra...

  11. The PESERA-DESMICE modelling framework for spatial assessment of the physical impact and economic viability of land degradation mitigation technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luuk eFleskens

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the PESERA-DESMICE integrated model developed in the EU FP6 DESIRE project. PESERA-DESMICE combines a process-based erosion prediction model extended with process descriptions to evaluate the effects of measures to mitigate land degradation, and a spatially-explicit economic evaluation model to evaluate the financial viability of these measures. The model operates on a grid-basis and is capable of addressing degradation problems due to wind and water erosion, grazing and fire. It can evaluate the effects of improved management strategies such as maintaining soil cover, retention of crop residues, irrigation, water harvesting, terracing and strip cropping. These management strategies introduce controls to various parameters slowing down degradation processes. The paper first describes how the physical impact of the various management strategies is assessed. It then continues to evaluate the applicability limitations of the various mitigation options, and to inventory the spatial variation in the investment and maintenance costs involved for each of a series of technologies that are deemed relevant in a given study area. The physical effects of the implementation of the management strategies relative to the situation without mitigation are subsequently valuated in monetary terms. The model pays particular attention to the spatial variation in the costs and benefits involved as a function of environmental conditions and distance to markets. All costs and benefits are added to a cash flow and a discount rate is applied. This allows a cost-benefit analysis to be performed over a comparative planning period based on the economic lifetime of the technologies being evaluated. It is assumed that land users will only potentially implement technologies if they are financially viable. After this framework has been set-up, various analyses can be made, including the effect of policy options on the potential uptake of mitigation measures

  12. Using High-Resolution Models to Predict the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in the Crown of the Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.; Muhlfeld, C.; Marshall, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Climate trends and projections have prompted interest in assessing the thermal sensitivity of aquatic species. How species will adapt and respond to these changes is uncertain, however, climatic and hydrologic changes may shift species habitat distributions and physiological functions both spatially and temporally. This is particularly true for salmonids (e.g., trout, char, and salmon), which are cold-water species strongly influenced by changes in temperature, flow, and physical habitat conditions. Therefore, understanding how habitats are likely to change and how species may respond to changes in climatic conditions is critical for developing conservation and management strategies. The purpose of this study is to develop a high-resolution stream temperature model for the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) to simulate potential climate change impacts on thermal regimes throughout the riverscape. A spatially explicit statistical regression model is coupled with high-resolution climate data such as air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, baseflow and surface runoff. This empirically based model is used to predict daily stream temperatures under historic, current and forecasted climate conditions. The model is parameterized with empirical stream temperature data, which has been gathered from agencies across the region. The current database of empirical stream temperature data consists of over 800 sites throughout the CCE, which provide time series data to the model application. The biological integration and application of this model is on bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations within the CCE. The model will be used to assess species vulnerabilities caused by spatial and temporal changes in stream temperature and hydrology. By evaluating the magnitude, timing and duration of climatic changes on the riverscape, we can more accurately assess potential vulnerabilities of critical life history traits, such as growth potential, spawning migrations

  13. Aquatic Plant Control Research Program. Allelopathic Aquatic Plants for Aquatic Plant Management: A Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-10-01

    block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Allelopathy "Bioassay . Growth inhibition. Aquatic macrophytes. Biocontrol Lena minor 19. ABSTRACT (Continue on...Bibliography of Aquatic Plant Allelopathy ........ Al 2 ALLELOPATHIC AQUATIC PLANTS FOR AQUATIC PLANT MANAGEMENT; A FEASIBILITY STUDY Introduction Background 1...nutrients, water, and other biotic effects could have overriding effects that appear as competition or allelopathy . These biotic factors must be

  14. The potential of coordinated reservoir operation for flood mitigation in large basins - A case study on the Bavarian Danube using coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, S. P.; Skublics, D.; Ehret, U.

    2014-09-01

    The coordinated operation of reservoirs in large-scale river basins has great potential to improve flood mitigation. However, this requires large scale hydrological models to translate the effect of reservoir operation to downstream points of interest, in a quality sufficient for the iterative development of optimized operation strategies. And, of course, it requires reservoirs large enough to make a noticeable impact. In this paper, we present and discuss several methods dealing with these prerequisites for reservoir operation using the example of three major floods in the Bavarian Danube basin (45,000 km2) and nine reservoirs therein: We start by presenting an approach for multi-criteria evaluation of model performance during floods, including aspects of local sensitivity to simulation quality. Then we investigate the potential of joint hydrologic-2d-hydrodynamic modeling to improve model performance. Based on this, we evaluate upper limits of reservoir impact under idealized conditions (perfect knowledge of future rainfall) with two methods: Detailed simulations and statistical analysis of the reservoirs' specific retention volume. Finally, we investigate to what degree reservoir operation strategies optimized for local (downstream vicinity to the reservoir) and regional (at the Danube) points of interest are compatible. With respect to model evaluation, we found that the consideration of local sensitivities to simulation quality added valuable information not included in the other evaluation criteria (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Peak timing). With respect to the second question, adding hydrodynamic models to the model chain did, contrary to our expectations, not improve simulations, despite the fact that under idealized conditions (using observed instead of simulated lateral inflow) the hydrodynamic models clearly outperformed the routing schemes of the hydrological models. Apparently, the advantages of hydrodynamic models could not be fully exploited when

  15. DETERMINATION OF HYDRO-ECOLOGICAL FACTORS OF THE VOLGA-CASPIAN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS STABILITY IN DESIGNING THEIR PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Mitina

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses possible consequences of changes in the Volga-Caspian aquatic ecosystems resulting from climate change according to the data scenarios of the Worldwide Meteorological Organization. Main hydro-ecological factors of stability of the Northern Caspian Sea ecosystems have been determined. It appears that ecosystem stability in the Northern Caspian Sea is primarily affected by natural conditions. It is essential to model riparian ecosystem processes and winter regime of reservoirs to develop strategies for mitigation of negative impacts of climate change. Such measures may include improvement of existing dams in the Volga region.

  16. SAP Minutes No.2015-03 for FIFRA meeting held 9/15-17/2015. A set of scientific issues being considered by the Environmental Protection Agency regarding development of a spatial aquatic model(SAM)for pesticide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    On September 15-17th, 2014, the US Environmental Protection Agency convened a public meeting of the FIFRA Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) to address scientific issues associated with the agency’s “Development of a Spatial Aquatic Model (SAM) for Pesticide Risk Assessment”. The goal of SAM is to impr...

  17. The interaction of climate observation, parameter estimation, and mitigation decisions: Modeling climate policy under uncertainty with a partially observable Markov decision process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fertig, E.; Webster, M.

    2013-12-01

    Though climate sensitivity remains poorly constrained, the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions and observable climate data could lead to improved estimates. Updated parameter estimates could alter decisions on greenhouse mitigation policy, which in turn influences future observed climate data and parameter estimation. Previous research on global climate mitigation policy neglects the cyclic nature of climate observation, parameter estimation, and policy action, instead treating uncertainty in climate sensitivity with scenario analysis or assuming that it will be resolved completely at some point in the future. This paper advances quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty (DMUU) in climate sensitivity by modeling the observation/parameter estimation/policy action cycle as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). In a POMDP framework, an objective function is maximized while both observable parameters and probability distributions over unobservable parameters are retained as system states. As time progresses and more data are collected, the probability distributions are updated with Bayesian analysis. To model anthropogenic climate change as a POMDP, we maximize social welfare using a modified DICE model. Climate sensitivity is never directly observable; instead it is modeled with a distribution that is subject to Bayesian updating after observation of stochastic changes in global mean temperature. The maximization problem is posed as a stochastic Bellman equation, which expresses total social welfare as the sum of immediate social welfare resulting from a current mitigation decision under current knowledge of climate sensitivity and the expected cost-to-go, which is the discounted future social welfare in the subsequent time interval as a function of both global mean temperature and the consequent probability distribution over climate sensitivity. While similar, smaller stochastic dynamic programming problems can be solved

  18. An integrated approach to model the biomagnification of organic pollutants in aquatic food webs of the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir ecosystem using adapted pollution scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz-Starke, Björn; Ottermanns, Richard; Rings, Ursula; Floehr, Tilman; Hollert, Henner; Hou, Junli; Li, Bo; Wu, Ling Ling; Yuan, Xingzhong; Strauch, Katrin; Wei, Hu; Norra, Stefan; Holbach, Andreas; Westrich, Bernhard; Schäffer, Andreas; Roß-Nickoll, Martina

    2013-10-01

    The impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) at the Yangtze River caused large flooding of urban, industrial, and agricultural areas, and profound land use changes took place. Consequently, substantial amounts of organic and inorganic pollutants were released into the reservoir. Additionally, contaminants and nutrients are entering the reservoir by drift, drainage, and runoff from adjacent agricultural areas as well as from sewage of industry, aquacultures, and households. The main aim of the presented research project is a deeper understanding of the processes that determines the bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants, i.e., mainly pesticides, in aquatic food webs under the newly developing conditions of the TGR. The project is part of the Yangtze-Hydro environmental program, financed by the German Ministry of Education and Science. In order to test combinations of environmental factors like nutrients and pollution, we use an integrated modeling approach to study the potential accumulation and biomagnification. We describe the integrative modeling approach and the consecutive adaption of the AQUATOX model, used as modeling framework for ecological risk assessment. As a starting point, pre-calibrated simulations were adapted to Yangtze-specific conditions (regionalization). Two exemplary food webs were developed by a thorough review of the pertinent literature. The first typical for the flowing conditions of the original Yangtze River and the Daning River near the city of Wushan, and the second for the stagnant reservoir characteristics of the aforementioned region that is marked by an intermediate between lake and large river communities of aquatic organisms. In close cooperation with German and Chinese partners of the Yangtze-Hydro Research Association, other site-specific parameters were estimated. The MINIBAT project contributed to the calibration of physicochemical and bathymetric parameters, and the TRANSMIC project delivered

  19. The Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) model: applicability for investigating the immunosuppressive effects of the aquatic pollutant benzo[a]pyrene (BaP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, E A; Li, Y; Zelikoff, J T

    2002-01-01

    Despite the fact that BaP is a carcinogen, mammalian immunosuppressant, and ubiquitous aquatic pollutant, knowledge regarding the effects of BaP on the immune system of fish is still lacking. To begin to fill this gap, studies were conducted in medaka to examine the effects and mechanisms by which BaP exposure might alter host immunocompetence. Fish, exposed by IP injection of BaP (2-600 microg/g BW), were examined after 48 h for effects upon immune function and CYP1A expression/activity. Benzo[a]pyrene, at a concentration below that which increased levels of CYPIA expression/activity (2 microg BaP/g BW) suppressed lymphocyte proliferation. Concentrations of BaP at 20 and 200 microg/g BW. suppressed antibody-forming cell (AFC) numbers, superoxide production, and host resistance against bacteria. In contrast, exposure to the low affinity aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonist, benzo[e]pyrene (BeP), neither induced CYP1A expression nor altered immune function. Given the lack of immunosuppressive effects produced by BeP, and the fact that exposure to the AhR antagonist (and CYP1A inhibitor) alpha-naphthoflavone (ANF) ameliorated the suppressive effects of BaP upon AFC numbers, the AhR pathway (including CYP1A-mediated production of reactive BaP metabolites) appears important in mediating BaP-induced immunotoxicity in fish, as in mammals. In the past, the medaka has proven a successful model for assessing carcinogenic agents. These studies have demonstrated its utility for also determining the immunosuppressive effects of an important aquatic contaminant.

  20. Effectiveness of an aquatic exercise program and low-level laser therapy on articular cartilage in an experimental model of osteoarthritis in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milares, Luiz Paulo; Assis, Lívia; Siqueira, Amanda; Claudino, Vitoria; Domingos, Heloisa; Almeida, Thais; Tim, Carla; Renno, Ana Claudia

    2016-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of an aquatic exercise program and low-level laser therapy (LLLT) (associated or not) on degenerative modifications and inflammatory mediators on the articular cartilage using an experimental model of knee OA. Forty male Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups: knee OA - without treatment (OA); OA plus exercise program group (OAE); OA plus LLLT (OAL); OA plus exercise program associated with LLLT (OAEL). Trained rats performed a water-jumping program carrying a load equivalent to 50-80 % of their body mass strapped to their chest. The laser irradiation was used either as the only method or after the exercise training had been performed, at 2 points contact mode (medial and lateral side of the left joint). The treatments started 4 weeks after the surgery, 3 days/week for 8 weeks. The results revealed that all treated groups (irradiated or not) exhibited a better pattern of tissue organization, with less fibrillation and irregularities along the articular surface and improved chondrocytes organization. Also, a lower cellular density and structural damage (OARSI score) and higher thickness values were observed in all treated groups. Additionally, OAE and OAEL showed a reduced expression in IL-1β and caspase-3 as compared with OA. Furthermore, a statistically lower MMP-13 expression was only observed in OAEL as compared with OA. These results suggest that aquatic exercise program and LLLT were effective in preventing cartilage degeneration. Also, physical exercise program presented anti-inflammatory effects in the knees in OA rats.

  1. Modelling sediment-microbial dynamics in the South Nation River, Ontario, Canada: Towards the prediction of aquatic and human health risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droppo, I G; Krishnappan, B G; Liss, S N; Marvin, C; Biberhofer, J

    2011-06-01

    Runoff from agricultural watersheds can carry a number of agricultural pollutants and pathogens; often associated with the sediment fraction. Deposition of this sediment can impact water quality and the ecology of the river, and the re-suspension of such sediment can become sources of contamination for reaches downstream. In this paper a modelling framework to predict sediment and associated microbial erosion, transport and deposition is proposed for the South Nation River, Ontario, Canada. The modelling framework is based on empirical relationships (deposition and re-suspension fluxes), derived from laboratory experiments in a rotating circular flume using sediment collected from the river bed. The bed shear stress governing the deposition and re-suspension processes in the stream was predicted using a one dimensional mobile boundary flow model called MOBED. Counts of live bacteria associated with the suspended and bed sediments were used in conjunction with measured suspended sediment concentration at an upstream section to allow for the estimation of sediment associated microbial erosion, transport and deposition within the modelled river reach. Results suggest that the South Nation River is dominated by deposition periods with erosion only occurring at flows above approximately 250 m(3) s(-1) (above this threshold, all sediment (suspended and eroded) with associated bacteria are transported through the modelled reach). As microbes are often associated with sediments, and can survive for extended periods of time, the river bed is shown to be a possible source of pathogenic organisms for erosion and transport downstream during large storm events. It is clear that, shear levels, bacteria concentrations and suspended sediment are interrelated requiring that these parameters be studied together in order to understand aquatic microbial dynamics. It is important that any management strategies and operational assessments for the protection of human and aquatic health

  2. Global N removal by freshwater aquatic systems using a spatially distributed, within-basin approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollheim, W.M.; Vörösmarty, C.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; Green, P.; Harrison, J.; Linder, E.; Peterson, B.J.; Seitzinger, S.P.; Syvitski, J.P.M.

    2008-01-01

    We explored the role of aquatic systems in the global N cycle using a spatially distributed, within-basin, aquatic nitrogen (N) removal model, implemented within the Framework for Aquatic Modeling in the Earth System (FrAMES-N). The model predicts mean annual total N (TN) removal by small rivers (wi

  3. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  4. Ocean-Based Alkalinity Enhancement: Mitigation Potential, Side Effects and the Fate of Added Alkalinity Assessed in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, M. F.; Ilyina, T.

    2014-12-01

    Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) has been proposed as a mean to mitigate climate change and ocean acidification. Whilst the mitigation potential of this geo-engineering technology may sound promising, it poses environmental risks. Within the Priority Program "Climate Engineering" of the German Science Foundation (DFG), we investigate the mitigation potential of AOA to reduce atmospheric CO2 and counteract the consequences of ocean acidification. We are particularly interested in the residence time of the added alkalinity at the ocean surface because it must stay in the upper ocean in order to increase the oceanic CO2 uptake. The mitigation potential, risks and the unintended consequences of this geo-engineering method are also exhaustively studied. These questions are tackled through the analysis of different alkalinity enhancement scenarios in the state-of-the-art Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM) in a configuration based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model scenarios are designed so that AOA is performed to keep the atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to values of the stabilization scenario RCP4.5, while fossil fuel CO2 emissions follow the pathway of the high-CO2 scenario RCP8.5. Alkalinity is added globally into the upper 12 meters of the ocean in different seasons and years. We found that on the time scale of relevance (i.e. from years to decades), season and location are key aspects to take into account in the implementation of AOA. This is because of inhomogeneous vertical mixing of added alkalinity due to the mixed layer depth which is established by the season. We also show that the rate of addition greatly determines impact and outcome of this geo-engineering method. Changes driven by the implementation of this method in the ocean biogeochemistry are also discussed. For instance, the associated changes in the carbon cycle, marine oxygen levels, saturation state of

  5. National and Sectoral GHG Mitigation Potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    This paper compares model estimates of national and sectoral GHG mitigation potential across six key OECD GHG-emitting economies: Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, Mexico and the US. It examines the implications of model structure, baseline and policy assumptions, and assesses GHG mitigation potential estimates across a variety of models, including models that are used to inform climate policy-makers in each of these economies.

  6. Simulation models WRF-Fire for wildland fire to purpose of disaster mitigation in Indonesia (Case study: Wildland fire on September, 23th 2015 in South of Sumatera)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggoro, Adityo Mega; Putra, Agie Wandala; Hutasoit, Budi Saritua

    2017-07-01

    Indonesia is one of the countries known as a one of the world lungs because it has a large forest and varied species. Besides that Indonesia has frequently hit by wildfires a year, one in 2015 yesterday which was hotly discussed because of the impact of forest fires that disrupt transport activity for flights resulting from interruption of smoke from fires. Therefore, it is important to be able to model the behavior of forest fires to disaster mitigation. In this study simulated forest fires in the region of South Sumatra on September 23, 2015 by the coordinates of fires 3,17°S and 106,03°E, this information is obtained from observation satellite imagery LANDSAT8 and hotspot distribution information from LAPAN. WRF-Fire is a combination model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with dynamic ARW core with fire semi-empirical models, based on the level set method. Methods of data analysis using descriptive analysis, comparative and spatial. The results showed that the distribution pattern of the fire resulting models have similarities with observation, the fire along with the smoke moving toward the northwest, then from the simulation results of surface winds and the invasion of fire has a correlation value of 0.62. WRF-Fire models able to simulate the extent of wildland fire even though it has few results overestimate is 1.725 ha and observations is 1.709 ha, this shows that the WRF-Fire models able be used to help mitigate the catastrophic wildland fire in Indonesia.

  7. Aquatic Instructors' Beliefs Toward Inclusion: The Theory of Planned Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conatser, Phillip; Block, Martin; Gansneder, Bruce

    2002-04-01

    The purpose was to (a) examine aquatic instructors' beliefs (female, n = 82; male, n = 29) about teaching swimming to individuals with disabilities in inclusive settings and (b) test the theory of planned behavior model (Ajzen, 1985, 1988, 2001). Aquatic instructors from 25 states representing 122 cities across the U.S. participated in this study. The instrument, named Aquatic Instructors' Beliefs Toward Inclusion (AIBTI), was an extended version of the Physical Educators' Attitudes Toward Teaching Individuals with Disabilities- Swim (Conatser, Block, & Lepore, 2000). A correlated t test showed aquatic instructors' beliefs (attitudes toward the behavior, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, intention, behavior) were significantly more favorable toward teaching aquatics to individuals with mild disabilities than individuals with severe disabilities. Stepwise multiple regression showed perceived behavioral control and attitude significantly predicted intention, and intention predicted instructors' inclusive behavior for both disability groups. Further, results indicated the theory of planned behavior predicts aquatic instructors' behavior better than the theory of reasoned action.

  8. Development and evaluation of a dynamic multimedia model (ECORAME) for local scale assessment of aquatic ecological exposure to chemicals originating from sources in environmental media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ja Eun; Kim, Yoon Kwan; Song, Jee Hey; Lee, Dong Soo

    2014-12-01

    Use of multimedia models (MMMs) has been limited in exposure assessment for aquatic ecosystems at local scale typically due to their coarse spatial resolution and inability to predict the individual concentrations of multiple streams within a watershed cell. An MMM named ECORAME is presented which overcomes the limitations by treating each water segment as an independent cell rather than a compartment within a watershed cell. This offers two advantages for exposure assessment, i.e., i) the spatial resolution for water is readily adjustable and ii) multiple water streams within one watershed cell could be handled individually. Model evaluation with respect to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) demonstrated that ECORAME's prediction of relative concentration agreed with measured values within a factor of five or less. A case study of PAHs using ECORAME shows that the concentration can change by more than 10 fold over the 40km main stream stretch of the Han River in Seoul, Korea. The concentration difference among multiple streams in the same watershed cell could be substantial (greater than 100 fold). Besides a need of finer spatial resolutons than those typically used in MMMs, the results strongly suggest that exposure prediction capability for individual streams in the same watershed is necessary for local scale assessment. As demostrated with ECORAME, the need can be effectively met by handling the water segments as individual cells in future MMMs.

  9. Modeling and optimization of anaerobic codigestion of potato waste and aquatic weed by response surface methodology and artificial neural network coupled genetic algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Samuel; Banerjee, Rintu

    2016-08-01

    A novel approach to overcome the acidification problem has been attempted in the present study by codigesting industrial potato waste (PW) with Pistia stratiotes (PS, an aquatic weed). The effectiveness of codigestion of the weed and PW was tested in an equal (1:1) proportion by weight with substrate concentration of 5g total solid (TS)/L (2.5gPW+2.5gPS) which resulted in enhancement of methane yield by 76.45% as compared to monodigestion of PW with a positive synergistic effect. Optimization of process parameters was conducted using central composite design (CCD) based response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) coupled genetic algorithm (GA) model. Upon comparison of these two optimization techniques, ANN-GA model obtained through feed forward back propagation methodology was found to be efficient and yielded 447.4±21.43LCH4/kgVSfed (0.279gCH4/kgCODvs) which is 6% higher as compared to the CCD-RSM based approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Population-level effects and recovery of aquatic invertebrates after multiple applications of an insecticide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohmen, G Peter; Preuss, Thomas G; Hamer, Mick; Galic, Nika; Strauss, Tido; van den Brink, Paul J; De Laender, Frederik; Bopp, Stephanie

    2016-01-01

    species inhabiting different aquatic ecosystems; the most sensitive species were significantly impacted unless respective mitigation measures were implemented (buffer zones resulting in reduced exposure). As expected the impact was stronger in shallow ditches as compared to deeper pond scenarios. Furthermore, as expected, recovery depended on factors such as temperature (affecting population growth rate and number of generations) and the occurence of nonimpacted aquatic ecosystems (their frequency and connectivity). These model predictions were largely in line with field observations and/or the results of a mesocosm study, providing additional evidence on the suitability and reliability of the models for risk assessment purposes. Because of their flexibility, models may predict the likelihood of unacceptable effects-based on previously defined protection goals-for a range of insecticide exposure scenarios and freshwater habitats. © 2015 SETAC.

  11. African Journal of Aquatic Science

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH. AFRICAN JOURNALS ... The African Journal of Aquatic Science is an international journal devoted to the study of the aquatic sciences, covering all African waters. The Journal publishes ...

  12. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation And Agriculture, Trade-off Or Win-win Situation: Bioeconomic Farm Modelling In The Sudanian Area of Burkina Faso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some, T. E.; Barbier, B.

    2015-12-01

    Climate changes talks regularly underline that developing countries' agriculture could play a stronger role in GHGs mitigation strategies and benefit from the Kyoto Protocol program of subsidies. Scientists explain that agriculture can contribute to carbon mitigation by storing more carbon in the soil through greener cropping systems. In this context, a growing number of research projects have started to investigate how developing countries agriculture can contribute to these objectives. The clean development mechanism (CDM) proposed in the Kyoto protocol is one particular policy instrument that can incite farmers to mitigate the GHG balance towards more sequestration and less emission. Some economists such as Michael Porter think that environmental regulation lead to a win-win outcome, in which case subsidies are not necessary. If it is a trade-off between incomes and the environment, subsidies are required. CDM can be mobilized to support the mitigation strategy. Agriculture implies the use of inputs. Reducing the emission implies the reduction of those inputs which will in turn imply a yield decrease. The study aims to assess whether this measure will imply a trade-off between environmental and economic objectives or a win-win situation. I apply this study to the case of small farmers in Burkina Faso through environmental instruments such as the emissions limits and agroforestry using a bioeconomic model, in which the farmers maximize their utility subject to constraints. The study finds that the limitation of emissions in annual crops production involves a trade-off. by impacting negatively their net cash come. By integrating perennial crops in the farming system, the farmers' utility increases. Around 6,118 kg are sequestrated individually. By computing the value on this carbon balance, farmers' net cash incomes go better. Then practicing agroforestry is a win-win situation, as they reach a higher level of income, and reduce emissions. Policymakers must

  13. Aquatic Environment 2000

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, L. M.; Bijl, L. van der; Boutrup, S.

    The report summarizes the results of the Danish Aquatic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 1998-2003. Danish Environmental Protection Agency 2000: NOVA-2003. Programbeskrivelse for det nationale program for overvågning af vandmiljøet 1998-2003. 397 pp. - Redegørelse fra Miljøstyrelsen nr. 1 (in...

  14. Aquatic Equipment Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sova, Ruth

    Equipment usually used in water exercise programs is designed for variety, intensity, and program necessity. This guide discusses aquatic equipment under the following headings: (1) equipment design; (2) equipment principles; (3) precautions and contraindications; (4) population contraindications; and (5) choosing equipment. Equipment is used…

  15. ZOONOSIS OF AQUATICAL ORGANISMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božidar Kurtović

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Aquatic organisms play a very important role in human nutrition. They also pose a real threat for human health by causing various diseases. Parasites, bacteria and viruses may either directly or indirectly be carried from aquatic organisms to humans. Disease outbreaks are influenced by many factors among which decreased immune response and feeding habits and higyene are most important. More frequent occuence of foodborne diseases has a number of reasons, including international travel and trade, microbial adaptation and changes in the food production system. Parasitic diseases occur most frequently as a result of human role in parasites life cycles. The prevalence is further increased by consuming raw fish and shellfish. The main feature of bacterial infections is facultative pathogenicity of most ethiological agents. In most cases disease occures as a result of decreased immunoreactivity. Several bacteria are, however, hightly pathogenic and capable of causing high morbidity and mortality in human. To date it has not been reported the case of human infection with viruses specific for aquatic organisms. Human infections are caused with human viruses and aquatic organisms play role only as vechicles. The greatest risk in that respect present shellfish. Fish and particularly shellfish are likely to cause food poisoning in humans. In most cases the cause are toxins of phithoplancton origins accumulating in shellfish and fish.

  16. Aquatic Environment 2000

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, L. M.; Bijl, L. van der; Boutrup, S.

    The report summarizes the results of the Danish Aquatic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 1998-2003. Danish Environmental Protection Agency 2000: NOVA-2003. Programbeskrivelse for det nationale program for overvågning af vandmiljøet 1998-2003. 397 pp. - Redegørelse fra Miljøstyrelsen nr. 1 (in...

  17. Aquatic Microbiology Laboratory Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Robert C.; And Others

    This laboratory manual presents information and techniques dealing with aquatic microbiology as it relates to environmental health science, sanitary engineering, and environmental microbiology. The contents are divided into three categories: (1) ecological and physiological considerations; (2) public health aspects; and (3)microbiology of water…

  18. MOAtox: A comprehensive mode of action and acute aquatic toxicity database for predictive model development (SETAC abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mode of toxic action (MOA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity and as an alternative to chemical class-based predictive toxicity modeling. However, the development of quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and other models has been limit...

  19. A dual-inexact fuzzy stochastic model for water resources management and non-point source pollution mitigation under multiple uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, C.; Tan, Q.; Huang, G.-H.; Cai, Y.-P.

    2014-05-01

    In this research, a dual-inexact fuzzy stochastic programming (DIFSP) method was developed for supporting the planning of water and farmland use management system considering the non-point source pollution mitigation under uncertainty. The random boundary interval (RBI) was incorporated into DIFSP through integrating fuzzy linear programming (FLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) approaches within an interval linear programming (ILP) framework. This developed method could effectively tackle the uncertainties expressed as intervals and fuzzy sets. Moreover, the lower and upper bounds of RBI are continuous random variables, and the correlation existing between the lower and upper bounds can be tackled in RBI through the joint probability distribution function. And thus the subjectivity of decision making is greatly reduced, enhancing the stability and robustness of obtained solutions. The proposed method was then applied to solve a water and farmland use planning model (WFUPM) with non-point source pollution mitigation. The generated results could provide decision makers with detailed water supply-demand schemes involving diversified water-related activities under preferred satisfaction degrees. These useful solutions could allow more in-depth analyses of the trade-offs between humans and environment, as well as those between system optimality and reliability. In addition, comparative analyses on the solutions obtained from ICCP (Interval chance-constraints programming) and DIFSP demonstrated the higher application of this developed approach for supporting the water and farmland use system planning.

  20. Introduced aquatic plants and algae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-native aquatic plants such as waterhyacinth and hydrilla severely impair the uses of aquatic resources including recreational faculties (lakes, reservoirs, rivers) as well as timely delivery of irrigation water for agriculture. Costs associated with impacts and management of all types of aquatic...

  1. Aquatic Plants and their Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michigan State Dept. of Natural Resources, Lansing.

    Aquatic plants can be divided into two types: algae and macrophytes. The goal of aquatic plant management is to maintain a proper balance of plants within a lake and still retain the lake's recreational and economic importance. Aquatic plant management programs have two phases: long-term management (nutrient control), and short-term management…

  2. LiDAR-derived spatial models of hydrological and biogeochemical source areas to improve estimates of terrestrial-aquatic mercury export in northern forested landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, M. C.; Mitchell, C. P.; Branfireun, B. A.; Kolka, R. K.; Fortin, M.

    2010-12-01

    Recent research on watershed mercury (Hg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) cycling in headwater research catchments in south-central Ontario, northwestern Ontario and northern Minnesota points to the critical role of discrete landscape elements in dictating rainfall-runoff response and the mobilization of DOC, Hg and methyl-mercury (MeHg) to downstream surface-waters. An overview of this research will be presented, emphasising two newly developed techniques used to extract hydrological and biogeochemical sources areas from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys. First, hydrogeomorphic edge-detection was used to partition the landscape into discrete functional units based on local drainage conditions. From this initial landscape segmentation, forested wetlands and non-wetland saturation prone depressional areas were classified and extracted using classification and regression tree models based on LiDAR-derived geomorphic indices aggregated to the scale of individual landscape elements. Following this procedure, a characteristic morphology analysis was conducted from LiDAR bare-earth returns to quantitatively define the upland-peatland interfaces within all peatlands greater than 0.2 ha. These two terrain analysis techniques produced a number of functionally different landscape element classes that were subsequently used in the south-central Ontario study sites to test statistical models of terrestrial-aquatic fluxes of DOC, total Hg and MeHg over different time-scales. The regression models indicate that functional differences exist among landscape element classes with respect to their solute source-strengths and runoff generating potentials, and showed marked improvements over previous landscape models of hydrological and biogeochemical source areas in northern forested regions. LiDAR remote sensing can therefore be used to refine estimates of biogeochemical transformations and solute transport at the landscape scale, thus improving our

  3. Assessing the concentrations of polar organic microcontaminants from point sources in the aquatic environment: measure or model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew C; Ternes, Thomas; Williams, Richard J; Sumpter, John P

    2008-08-01

    To carry out meaningful ecotoxicity studies on novel polar organic microcontaminants, it is essential to know what concentrations wildlife may be exposed to. Traditionally these values were obtained by analytical chemistry, but in recent years GIS water quality models have been developed which may offer a quick and reliable way of getting the same information. Thus, two ways of obtaining basically the same information now exist, and an issue, therefore, arises as to which method is the most appropriate to use in which situation. To address this issue we have critically reviewed and compared measuring and modeling approaches for the determination of sewage effluent and river water concentrations of organic microcontaminants. Where model predictions and chemical measurements can be directly compared in sewage effluents, receiving waters, and across catchments, reported model mean values have all been within 1 order of magnitude of the measured values, with typically no more than a 3- or 4-fold difference. Interlaboratory chemical analysis of some organic microcontaminants in effluents in the challenging ng/L range have provided results which have varied from one another by a similar margin. No such comparison has been carried out yet for GIS water quality models to determine variation in predicted concentrations. As the level of ecotoxicological effects of many chemicals is often considerably higher than the reported measured or modeled values, such errors that might occur will often be of no consequence. But due to their extraordinary potency, much more accuracy is required with some natural and synthetic hormones. Significantly, modeling is no more complex to conduct when dealing with contaminants at ng/L compared with mg/L concentrations, but the same cannot be said for chemical analysis. A combination of modeling and measuring techniques will give the greatest confidence in risk assessment.

  4. Nitrous Oxide Abatement Coupled with Biopolymer Production As a Model GHG Biorefinery for Cost-Effective Climate Change Mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frutos, Osvaldo D; Cortes, Irene; Cantera, Sara; Arnaiz, Esther; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl

    2017-06-06

    N2O represents ∼6% of the global greenhouse gas emission inventory and the most important O3-depleting substance emitted in this 21st century. Despite its environmental relevance, little attention has been given to cost-effective and environmentally friendly N2O abatement methods. Here we examined, the potential of a bubble column (BCR) and an internal loop airlift (ALR) bioreactors of 2.3 L for the abatement of N2O from a nitric acid plant emission. The process was based on the biological reduction of N2O by Paracoccus denitrificans using methanol as a carbon/electron source. Two nitrogen limiting strategies were also tested for the coproduction of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) coupled with N2O reduction. High N2O removal efficiencies (REs) (≈87%) together with a low PHBV cell accumulation were observed in both bioreactors in excess of nitrogen. However, PHBV contents of 38-64% were recorded under N limiting conditions along with N2O-REs of ≈57% and ≈84% in the ALR and BCR, respectively. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses showed that P. denitrificans was dominant (>50%) after 6 months of experimentation. The successful abatement of N2O concomitant with PHBV accumulation confirmed the potential of integrating biorefinery concepts into biological gas treatment for a cost-effective GHG mitigation.

  5. The first draft genome of the aquatic model plant Lemna minor opens the route for future stress physiology research and biotechnological applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hoeck, Arne; Horemans, Nele; Monsieurs, Pieter; Cao, Hieu Xuan; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Blust, Ronny

    2015-01-01

    Freshwater duckweed, comprising the smallest, fastest growing and simplest macrophytes has various applications in agriculture, phytoremediation and energy production. Lemna minor, the so-called common duckweed, is a model system of these aquatic plants for ecotoxicological bioassays, genetic transformation tools and industrial applications. Given the ecotoxic relevance and high potential for biomass production, whole-genome information of this cosmopolitan duckweed is needed. The 472 Mbp assembly of the L. minor genome (2n = 40; estimated 481 Mbp; 98.1 %) contains 22,382 protein-coding genes and 61.5 % repetitive sequences. The repeat content explains 94.5 % of the genome size difference in comparison with the greater duckweed, Spirodela polyrhiza (2n = 40; 158 Mbp; 19,623 protein-coding genes; and 15.79 % repetitive sequences). Comparison of proteins from other monocot plants, protein ortholog identification, OrthoMCL, suggests 1356 duckweed-specific groups (3367 proteins, 15.0 % total L. minor proteins) and 795 Lemna-specific groups (2897 proteins, 12.9 % total L. minor proteins). Interestingly, proteins involved in biosynthetic processes in response to various stimuli and hydrolase activities are enriched in the Lemna proteome in comparison with the Spirodela proteome. The genome sequence and annotation of L. minor protein-coding genes provide new insights in biological understanding and biomass production applications of Lemna species.

  6. A 3D individual-based aquatic transport model for the assessment of the potential dispersal of planktonic larvae of an invasive bivalve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyer, Andrea B; Wittmann, Marion E; Chandra, Sudeep; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Rueda, Francisco J

    2014-12-01

    The unwanted impacts of non-indigenous species have become one of the major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Assessing the potential dispersal and colonization of non-indigenous species is necessary to prevent or reduce deleterious effects that may lead to ecosystem degradation and a range of economic impacts. A three dimensional (3D) numerical model has been developed to evaluate the local dispersal of the planktonic larvae of an invasive bivalve, Asian clam (Corbicula fluminea), by passive hydraulic transport in Lake Tahoe, USA. The probability of dispersal of Asian clam larvae from the existing high density populations to novel habitats is determined by the magnitude and timing of strong wind events. The probability of colonization of new near-shore areas outside the existing beds is low, but sensitive to the larvae settling velocity ws. High larvae mortality was observed due to settling in unsuitable deep habitats. The impact of UV-radiation during the pelagic stages, on the Asian clam mortality was low. This work provides a quantification of the number of propagules that may be successfully transported as a result of natural processes and in function of population size. The knowledge and understanding of the relative contribution of different dispersal pathways, may directly inform decision-making and resource allocation associated with invasive species management.

  7. Numerical modelling of the thermal effects on the aquatic environment from the thermal power plant by using two water discharge pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issakhov, Alibek

    2017-07-01

    The paper presents a numerical modelling of the thermal load on the aquatic environment by using two water discharge pipes of the thermal power plant. It is solved by the Navier-Stokes and temperature transport equations for an incompressible fluid in a stratified medium. The numerical solution of the equation system is divided into four stages by using projection method which was approximated by the finite volume method. At the first step it is assumed that the momentum transfer was carried out only by convection and diffusion. Intermediate velocity field is solved by 5-step Runge-Kutta method. At the second stage, the pressure field is solved by found the intermediate velocity field. Poisson equation for the pressure field is solved by Jacobi method. The third step is assumed that the transfer is carried out only by pressure gradient. The fourth step of the temperature transport equation is also solved as momentum equations. The obtained numerical results of stratified turbulent flow for two water discharged pipes were compared with experimental data and with numerical results for one water discharged pipe. General thermal load in the reservoir-cooler decreases comparing one water discharged pipe and revealed qualitatively and quantitatively approximately the basic laws of hydrothermal processes occurring in the reservoir-cooler can be seen that from numerical simulations where two water discharged pipes were used.

  8. Experimental modeling of the processes resulting from the introduction of the transgenic microorganism Escherichia coli Z905/pPHL7 (lux+) into aquatic microcosms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargatova, T.; Popova, L.; Pechurkin, N.

    The processes resulting from the introduction of the transgenic microorganism (TM) E. coli Z905/pPHL7 into aquatic microcosms have been modeled experimentally. It has been shown that the TM E. coli is able to adapt to a long co-existence with aboriginal heterotrophic microflora, whatever the structure of a microcosm. In more complex microcosms the numerical dynamics of the introduced E. coli Z905/pPHL7 population is more stable. In the TM populations staying in the microcosms for a prolonged time changes are recorded in the phenotypic expression of plasmid genes (ampicillin resistance and the luminescence level) and chromosome genes (morphological and physiological traits). However, in every study microcosm the recombinant plasmid persists in the TM cells during 6 years after the introduction, and as the population adapts to the conditions of the microcosms, the efficiency of the cloned gene expression in the cells is restored. In the microcosms with high microalgal counts (107 cells/ml), cells with a high threshold of sensitivity to ampicillin dominate in the population of the TM E. coli Z905/pPHL7.

  9. Potential of the aquatic fern Azolla filiculoides in biodegradation of an azo dye: modeling of experimental results by artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khataee, A R; Movafeghi, A; Vafaei, F; Lisar, S Y Salehi; Zarei, M

    2013-01-01

    The potential of an aquatic fern, Azolla filiculoides, in phytoremediation of a mono azo dye solution, C.I. Acid Blue 92 (AB92), was studied. The effects of operational parameters such as reaction time, initial dye concentration, fern fresh weight, pH, temperature and reusability of the fern on biodegradation efficiency were investigated. The intermediate compounds produced by biodegradation process were analyzed using GC-MS analysis. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the biodegradation efficiency. The findings indicated that ANN provides reasonable predictive performance (R2 = 0.961). The effects of AB92 solutions (10 and 20 mg L(-1)) on growth, chlorophylls and carotenoids content, activity of antioxidant enzymes such as superoxide dismutase, peroxidase and catalase and formation of malondialdehyde were analyzed. AB92 generally showed inhibitory effects on the growth. Moreover, photosynthetic pigments in the fronds significantly decreased in the treatments. An increase was detected for lipid peroxidation and antioxidant enzymes activity, suggesting that AB92 caused reactive oxygen species production in Azolla fronds, which were scavenged by induced activities of antioxidant enzymes.

  10. Study on Cultivation Technique and Model Innovation of Aquatic Vegetables%浙江水生蔬菜栽培技术和模式的创新

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑寨生; 张尚法; 王凌云; 陈淑玲; 张雷; 袁名安; 孔向军

    2013-01-01

    通过水生蔬菜栽培技术和模式创新研究,先后总结出单季茭“一茬双收”栽培技术、双季茭“三改两优化”栽培技术、莲藕“五改”早熟栽培技术、子莲“早鲜多”栽培技术和菱角“带果移栽”长季栽培技术等,并在产区得到大面积推广,取得明显成效.%This paper summarized a series of cultivation techniques by researching on the cultivation technique and model innovation of aquatic vegetables, such as "One cropping and double harvest" of single - cropping water bamboo, "Three transformation and two optimization" of double - cropping water bamboo, "five transformation" of early maturing lotus root, "early maturity - fresh - high yield" of seed lotus, and "transplanting with immature fruit" long - season cultivation technique of water chestnut. These techniques obtained large - scale promotion in the production region, and achieved remarkable results.

  11. The Price Model of Aquatic Products Based on Predictive Control Theory%基于预测控制理论的水产品价格模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘静

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a disequilibrium cobweb model of price of aquatic products, and applies predictive control theory, so that the system operates stably,and the deviation between supply and demand of aquatic products smoothly tracks the pre-given target. It defines the supply and demand change model, and researches the impact of parameter selection in this model on dynamic state and robustness of the system. I conduct simulation by Matlab software,to get the response curve of this model. The results show that in the early period of commodities coming into the market,affected by lack of market information and many other factors,the price fluctuates greatly in a short time. The market will gradually achieve balance between supply and demand over time,and the price fluctuations in the neighbouring two periods are broadly consistent. The increase in model parametercan decrease overshoot,to promote the stability of system,but the slower the dynamic response,the longer the deviation between supply and demand to accurately track a given target. Therefore, by selecting different parameters, the decision-makers can establish different models of supply and demand changes to meet the actual needs, and ensure stable development of market. Simulation results verify the excellent performance of this algorithm.%讨论了一种水产品价格非均衡蛛网模型,应用预测控制理论,使系统稳定运行,保证水产品供求差平稳跟踪预先给定的目标.定义了供求变化模式,研究了该模式中参数的选择对系统动态特性和鲁棒性的影响.运用Matlab软件进行仿真,得出该模型的响应曲线,结果表明,在商品上市前期,由于对市场信息了解不足等多种因素影响,在短时间内价格波动比较大,随着时间增长,市场逐步达到供需平衡,相邻两期价格的波动大体一致;模型参数α增大可以减少超调,使系统稳定度增高,但动态响应越缓慢,供求差准确跟踪给定目标的时间

  12. Light-limited growth and competition for light in well-mixed aquatic environments : An elementary model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef; Weissing, F.J.

    1994-01-01

    Light is never distributed homogeneously since it forms a gradient over biomass. As a consequence, the common theories on nutrient competition are not applicable to competition for light. In this paper, we investigate a model for light-limited growth and competition among phytoplankton species in a

  13. Derivation of water quality criteria of phenanthrene using interspecies correlation estimation models for aquatic life in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiangyue; Liu, Zhengtao; Yan, Zhenguang; Yi, Xianliang

    2015-06-01

    Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) method has been widely used to derive water quality criteria (WQC). However, the toxicity data of some environmental pollutants are not easily accessible, especially for endangered and threatened species. Thus, it would be very desirable and economical to predict the toxicity of those species not subjected to toxicity test with the aid of a mathematical model. The interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) model (developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)) uses the initial toxicity estimate for one species to produce correlated toxicity values for multiple species, and it can be utilized to develop SSD and HC5 (hazardous concentration, 5th percentile). In this study, we explored the applicability of ICE to predict toxicity of phenanthrene to various species. ICE-based SSDs were generated using three surrogate species (Oncorhynchus mykiss, Lepomis macrochirus, and Daphnia magna) and compared with the metrical-based SSD. The corresponding HC5 of both models were also compared. The results showed there were no significant differences between HC5 derived from measured acute and ICE-based predicted values. The ICE model was verified as a valid approach for generating SSDs with limited toxicity data and deriving WQC for phenanthrene.

  14. How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommen, U.; Schmitt, W.; Heine, S.; Brock, T.C.M.; Duquesne, S.; Manson, P.; Meregali, G.; Ochoa-Acuna, H.; Vliet, van P.; Arts, G.H.P.

    2016-01-01

    This case study of the SETAC workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field wat

  15. Light-limited growth and competition for light in well-mixed aquatic environments : An elementary model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef; Weissing, F.J.

    1994-01-01

    Light is never distributed homogeneously since it forms a gradient over biomass. As a consequence, the common theories on nutrient competition are not applicable to competition for light. In this paper, we investigate a model for light-limited growth and competition among phytoplankton species in a

  16. Biokinetic food chain modeling of waterborne selenium pulses into aquatic food chains: Implications for water quality criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeForest, David K; Pargee, Suzanne; Claytor, Carrie; Canton, Steven P; Brix, Kevin V

    2016-04-01

    We evaluated the use of biokinetic models to predict selenium (Se) bioaccumulation into model food chains after short-term pulses of selenate or selenite into water. Both periphyton- and phytoplankton-based food chains were modeled, with Se trophically transferred to invertebrates and then to fish. Whole-body fish Se concentrations were predicted based on 1) the background waterborne Se concentration, 2) the magnitude of the Se pulse, and 3) the duration of the Se pulse. The models were used to evaluate whether the US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) existing acute Se criteria and their recently proposed intermittent Se criteria would be protective of a whole-body fish Se tissue-based criterion of 8.1 μg g(-1) dry wt. Based on a background waterborne Se concentration of 1 μg L(-1) and pulse durations of 1 d and 4 d, the Se pulse concentrations predicted to result in a whole-body fish Se concentration of 8.1 μg g(-1) dry wt in the most conservative model food chains were 144 and 35 μg L(-1), respectively, for selenate and 57 and 16 μg L(-1), respectively, for selenite. These concentrations fall within the range of various acute Se criteria recommended by the USEPA based on direct waterborne toxicity, suggesting that these criteria may not always be protective against bioaccumulation-based toxicity that could occur after short-term pulses. Regarding the USEPA's draft intermittent Se criteria, the biokinetic modeling indicates that they may be overly protective for selenate pulses but potentially underprotective for selenite pulses. Predictions of whole-body fish Se concentrations were highly dependent on whether the food chain was periphyton- or phytoplankton-based, because the latter had much greater Se uptake rate constants. Overall, biokinetic modeling provides an approach for developing acute Se criteria that are protective against bioaccumulation-based toxicity after trophic transfer, and it is also a useful tool for evaluating averaging

  17. Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 mitigates brain injury in a rat model of infection-sensitized neonatal hypoxia-ischemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dianer; Sun, Yu-Yo; Nemkul, Niza; Baumann, Jessica M; Shereen, Ahmed; Dunn, R Scott; Wills-Karp, Marsha; Lawrence, Daniel A; Lindquist, Diana M; Kuan, Chia-Yi

    2013-05-01

    Intrauterine infection exacerbates neonatal hypoxic-ischemic (HI) brain injury and impairs the development of cerebral cortex. Here we used low-dose lipopolysaccharide (LPS) pre-exposure followed by unilateral cerebral HI insult in 7-day-old rats to study the pathogenic mechanisms. We found that LPS pre-exposure blocked the HI-induced proteolytic activity of tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA), but significantly enhanced NF-κB signaling, microglia activation, and the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines in newborn brains. Remarkably, these pathogenic responses were all blocked by intracerebroventricular injection of a stable-mutant form of plasminogen activator protein-1 called CPAI. Similarly, LPS pre-exposure amplified, while CPAI therapy mitigated HI-induced blood-brain-barrier damage and the brain tissue loss with a therapeutic window at 4 h after the LPS/HI insult. The CPAI also blocks microglia activation following a brain injection of LPS, which requires the contribution by tPA, but not the urinary-type plasminogen activator (uPA), as shown by experiments in tPA-null and uPA-null mice. These results implicate the nonproteolytic tPA activity in LPS/HI-induced brain damage and microglia activation. Finally, the CPAI treatment protects near-normal motor and white matter development despite neonatal LPS/HI insult. Together, because CPAI blocks both proteolytic and nonproteolytic tPA neurotoxicity, it is a promising therapeutics of neonatal HI injury either with or without infection.

  18. Aquatic macroinvertebrates of the Jablanica river, Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Katarina S.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Research on the community of aquatic macroinvertebrates was carried out during 2005 and 2006 at four sampling sites along the Jablanica River, a right-hand tributary of the Kolubara River. Fifty-seven taxa were recorded in the course of the investigation. The most diverse group was Ephemeroptera, followed by Trichoptera and Plecoptera. Members of the Rhitrogena semicolorata group were the most abundant. Our results could be the basis for evaluation of the influence of damming of the Jablanica River on the status of its water and can serve as a model for studying the influ­ence of hydromorphological degradation of aquatic ecosystems.

  19. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA)....

  20. Performance evaluation on aquatic product cold-chain logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenbing Wu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The requirements for high quality and diversification aquatic products are increasing with the improvement of Chinese living standard. However, the distribution between place of production and place of consumption are uneven, which results in large cold-chain logistics demand for aquatic products. At present, the low-level development of cold chain logistics has a bad impact on the circulation of aquatic products in China. So it is very urgent to develop cold-chain logistics in China. Design/methodology/approach: In order to do this, we apply performance evaluation, a well-known management tool, to study Chinese aquatic product cold-chain logistics. In this paper we first propose SISP(Subjects, Indexes, Standards, and Phases of performance evaluation model and ACSSN model(Aquatic product, Customer, Supply Chain, Society, and Node enterprises of supply chain for aquatic products cold-chain logistics performance evaluation. Then an ANP-Fuzzy method is proposed to evaluate the operational performance of Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co., Ltd. Furthermore, a system dynamic model is built to simulate the impact of temperature on the profits in aquatic products cold-chain sales section. Findings: We find out within a reasonable temperature range, lower temperature brings higher profit level. Also, performance improvement methods are proposed and the simulation of performance evaluation system is developed. Practical implications: Our findings can help to improve the level of aquatic product cold-chain logistics in China. Originality/value: The paper proposes the SISP (Subjects, Indexes, Standards, and Phases of performance evaluation model and ACSSN model (Aquatic product, Customer, Supply Chain, Society, and Node enterprises of supply chain for aquatic products cold-chain logistics performance evaluation.

  1. Cytochromes of Aquatic Fungi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Frank H.; Unestam, Torgny

    1968-01-01

    The cytochrome systems of two classes of aquatic fungi, the Oomycetes and Chytridiomycetes, were studied by means of reduced-minus-oxidized difference spectra at room and at low temperature. At room temperature, all of these fungi have a c-type cytochrome with an absorption maximum at 551 mμ and a b-type cytochrome at 564 mμ. The Oomycetes have a-type cytochromes at 605 mμ, and the Chytridiomycetes have a-type cytochromes at 606 mμ (Blastocladiales) or at 609 mμ (Monoblepharidales). Additional b-type cytochromes are found at 557 mμ in the Oomycetes and at approximately 560 mμ in the Chytridiomycetes. The data obtained from spectra at low temperature are consistent with these conclusions. Thus, the difference spectra reveal variation between the cytochrome systems of these two classes of aquatic fungi. PMID:5650068

  2. Scaling macroscopic aquatic locomotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazzola, Mattia; Argentina, Mederic; Mahadevan, Lakshminarayanan

    2014-11-01

    Inertial aquatic swimmers that use undulatory gaits range in length L from a few millimeters to 30 meters, across a wide array of biological taxa. Using elementary hydrodynamic arguments, we uncover a unifying mechanistic principle characterizing their locomotion by deriving a scaling relation that links swimming speed U to body kinematics (tail beat amplitude A and frequency ω) and fluid properties (kinematic viscosity ν). This principle can be simply couched as the power law Re ~ Swα , where Re = UL / ν >> 1 and Sw = ωAL / ν , with α = 4 / 3 for laminar flows, and α = 1 for turbulent flows. Existing data from over 1000 measurements on fish, amphibians, larvae, reptiles, mammals and birds, as well as direct numerical simulations are consistent with our scaling. We interpret our results as the consequence of the convergence of aquatic gaits to the performance limits imposed by hydrodynamics.

  3. A reactive transport model for the geochemical response, detection and potential mitigation of CO2 leakage into a confined aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, K.; Druhan, J. L.; Vialle, S.; Benson, S. M.; Agarwal, A.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the subsurface generally assumes that caprock formations will serve as physical barriers to upward migration of CO2. Stability and coherence of the caprocks are thus important criteria for site selection, but caprock integritycannot be guaranteed with total certainty over the lifetime of the project. As a result, carbon capture and storage projects require reliable techniques to monitor geologic storage sites for newly formed leaks, and the ability to rapidly deploy mitigation measures should leakage occur. Here, we present two-dimensional reactive transport simulations to evaluate the hydrogeochemical characteristics of a newly formed CO2 leak into an overlying reservoir. Simulations use the ToughReact multi-component reactive transport code and hypothetical reservoir characteristics. We focus on the comparatively short time period of days to months following formation of the leak to consider (1) geochemical shifts in formation water indicative of the leak, (2) hydrodynamics of pumping wells in the vicinity of the leak, and (3) delivery of a sealant to the leak through an adjacent well bore. Our results suggest that characteristic shifts in pH and dissolved inorganic carbon might be detected in down-gradient mentoring wells prior to the breakthrough of CO2, and could offer a potential means of identifying small and newly formed leaks. Injecting water into the aquifer through pumping wells in the vicinity of the leak provides a hydrodynamic control that can prevent CO2 from reaching the top of the reservoir, but this action will likely have only minor influence on the rate of leakage through the caprock defect. Injection of a hypothetical sealant through an adjacent pumping well is considered using an aqueous solute with pH-dependent equilibrium constraints such that the species is soluble in the basic pH range but forms a precipitate at neutral to acidic pH conditions associated with CO2-rich water. Injection of this

  4. Green investment schemes: financing energy-efficiency in CEE and a model for post-2012 climate mitigation finance?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharmina, Maria; Uerge-Vorsatz, Diana (Central European Univ., Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Budapest (Hungary)); Tuerk, Andreas (Joanneum Research, Graz (Austria)); Feiler, Jozsef (Office of the Parliamentary Commissioner for Future Generations, Budapest (Hungary))

    2009-07-01

    Green Investment Schemes (GIS) have been introduced to ensure the climate integrity of international emission trading (IET) involving first commitment period excess assigned amount units (AAUs) in former communist countries for the purpose of other countries' compliance with Kyoto commitments. GIS could provide a new and significant source of GHG mitigation financing in the seller countries. The article investigates how the flexibility of GIS can be best utilized for maximizing benefits to climate and society, but also to ensure that environmental integrity is not compromised at the expense of its simplicity and flexibility. The paper demonstrates that improved energy efficiency, especially through thermal retrofitting of the old inefficient building stock, is the most optimal area where such benefits can be best maximised. The paper identifies different architectural modalities of GIS, and how the choices in these affect its effectiveness. It then reviews the developments in GIS and characterizes different countries' GIS architectures in the making. Learning from CDM/JI as well as other constraints related to GIS, recommendations are made for GIS architectures. The article emphasizes that GIS provides a unique opportunity for significant funds for abatement investments such as efficiency improvements. Optimally, these revenues could be targeted towards areas not easily reached by business-as-usual investments and policies, but fundamental for a long-term low carbon economy. Such areas in CEE include infrastructure investments, like retrofitting of old buildings or ensuring very low carbon footprints of new buildings, and certain bioenergy projects. To accommodate such long-term climate investments, it is crucial that the combination of allowable crediting period, greening ratio and AAU price ensures adequate bankability for investments with long payback times. The paper also proposes that more innovative and simpler MandV approaches than in CDM/JI are

  5. Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Minnen, Jelle G; Strengers, Bart J; Eickhout, Bas; Swart, Rob J; Leemans, Rik

    2008-04-15

    Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies. Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75-80% or more.Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5-7% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities. Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO2. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however

  6. Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swart Rob J

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies. Results Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more. Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities. Conclusion Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO2. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local

  7. Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson W.

    2011-01-01

    It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the

  8. Mitigation win-win

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Dominic; Lucas, Amanda; Barnes, Andrew

    2013-07-01

    Win-win messages regarding climate change mitigation policies in agriculture tend to oversimplify farmer motivation. Contributions from psychology, cultural evolution and behavioural economics should help to design more effective policy.

  9. Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson W.

    2011-03-01

    It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the

  10. RFI Mitigation Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The increased sensitivity of passive instrumentation in radio astronomy and remote sensing and the intensifying active use of the spectrum have led to an increasing level of radio frequency interference (RFI) of the active services on the passive use of the spectrum. Advances in technology and computing have opened up new possibilities for mitigating the effects of certain classes of interference in the observing data. Interference in allocated bands always leads to data loss for the passive users of the spectrum even if interference mitigation is applied. However, interference mitigation in non-allocated spectral bands may facilitate the partial use of this spectrum for passive (non-interfering) observations. There is no generic method to mitigate all types of interference, so a multi-layered system approach may be advisable to reduce detrimental effects for a congested interference environment. Specific mitigation methods implemented at different points in the data acquisition chain will thus result in a cumulative mitigation effect on the data. This third RFI Mitigation Workshop considered RFI mitigation in radio astronomy in all its facets with the aim of facilitating the implementation of instrumental and data processing techniques. This workshop aimed to take a forward look at applications for the next generation of radio instruments, such as the SKA and its pathfinders and LOFAR, as well as considering their application to existing instruments. This workshop has been organized by ASTRON and NAIC, with support from the Engineering Forum of FP7 RadioNet, the SKA Project Development Office, and in collaboration with CRAF and IUCAF.

  11. Nutrition considerations in special environments for aquatic sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stellingwerff, Trent; Pyne, David B; Burke, Louise M

    2014-08-01

    Elite athletes who compete in aquatic sports face the constant challenge of arduous training and competition schedules in difficult and changing environmental conditions. The huge range of water temperatures to which swimmers and other aquatic athletes are often exposed (16-31 °C for open-water swimming), coupled with altered aquatic thermoregulatory responses as compared with terrestrial athletes, can challenge the health, safety, and performance of these athletes. Other environmental concerns include air and water pollution, altitude, and jetlag and travel fatigue. However, these challenging environments provide the potential for several nutritional interventions that can mitigate the negative effects and enhance adaptation and performance. These interventions include providing adequate hydration and carbohydrate and iron intake while at altitude; optimizing body composition and fluid and carbohydrate intake when training or competing in varying water temperatures; and maximizing fluid and food hygiene when traveling. There is also emerging information on nutritional interventions to manage jetlag and travel fatigue, such as the timing of food intake and the strategic use of caffeine or melatonin. Aquatic athletes often undertake their major global competitions where accommodations feature cafeteria-style buffet eating. These environments can often lead to inappropriate choices in the type and quantity of food intake, which is of particular concern to divers and synchronized swimmers who compete in physique-specific sports, as well as swimmers who have a vastly reduced energy expenditure during their taper. Taken together, planned nutrition and hydration interventions can have a favorable impact on aquatic athletes facing varying environmental challenges.

  12. Mitigating BeiDou Satellite-Induced Code Bias: Taking into Account the Stochastic Model of Corrections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fei; Li, Xin; Liu, Wanke

    2016-06-18

    The BeiDou satellite-induced code biases have been confirmed to be orbit type-, frequency-, and elevation-dependent. Such code-phase divergences (code bias variations) severely affect absolute precise applications which use code measurements. To reduce their adverse effects, an improved correction model is proposed in this paper. Different from the model proposed by Wanninger and Beer (2015), more datasets (a time span of almost two years) were used to produce the correction values. More importantly, the stochastic information, i.e., the precision indexes, were given together with correction values in the improved model. However, only correction values were given while the precision indexes were completely missing in the traditional model. With the improved correction model, users may have a better understanding of their corrections, especially the uncertainty of corrections. Thus, it is helpful for refining the stochastic model of code observations. Validation tests in precise point positioning (PPP) reveal that a proper stochastic model is critical. The actual precision of the corrected code observations can be reflected in a more objective manner if the stochastic model of the corrections is taken into account. As a consequence, PPP solutions with the improved model outperforms the traditional one in terms of positioning accuracy, as well as convergence speed. In addition, the Melbourne-Wübbena (MW) combination which serves for ambiguity fixing were verified as well. The uncorrected MW values show strong systematic variations with an amplitude of half a wide-lane cycle, which prevents precise ambiguity determination and successful ambiguity resolution. After application of the code bias correction models, the systematic variations can be greatly removed, and the resulting wide lane ambiguities are more likely to be fixed. Moreover, the code residuals show more reasonable distributions after code bias corrections with either the traditional or the improved model.

  13. Mitigating BeiDou Satellite-Induced Code Bias: Taking into Account the Stochastic Model of Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Fei; Li, Xin; Liu, Wanke

    2016-01-01

    The BeiDou satellite-induced code biases have been confirmed to be orbit type-, frequency-, and elevation-dependent. Such code-phase divergences (code bias variations) severely affect absolute precise applications which use code measurements. To reduce their adverse effects, an improved correction model is proposed in this paper. Different from the model proposed by Wanninger and Beer (2015), more datasets (a time span of almost two years) were used to produce the correction values. More importantly, the stochastic information, i.e., the precision indexes, were given together with correction values in the improved model. However, only correction values were given while the precision indexes were completely missing in the traditional model. With the improved correction model, users may have a better understanding of their corrections, especially the uncertainty of corrections. Thus, it is helpful for refining the stochastic model of code observations. Validation tests in precise point positioning (PPP) reveal that a proper stochastic model is critical. The actual precision of the corrected code observations can be reflected in a more objective manner if the stochastic model of the corrections is taken into account. As a consequence, PPP solutions with the improved model outperforms the traditional one in terms of positioning accuracy, as well as convergence speed. In addition, the Melbourne-Wübbena (MW) combination which serves for ambiguity fixing were verified as well. The uncorrected MW values show strong systematic variations with an amplitude of half a wide-lane cycle, which prevents precise ambiguity determination and successful ambiguity resolution. After application of the code bias correction models, the systematic variations can be greatly removed, and the resulting wide lane ambiguities are more likely to be fixed. Moreover, the code residuals show more reasonable distributions after code bias corrections with either the traditional or the improved model

  14. Green and cool roofs to mitigate urban heat island effects in the Chicago metropolitan area: evaluation with a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Conry, P.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Hellmann, J. J.; Chen, F.

    2016-06-01

    The effects of urban heat islands (UHIs) have a substantial bearing on the sustainability of cities and environs. This paper examines the efficacy of green and cool roofs as potential UHI mitigation strategies to make cities more resilient against UHI. We have employed the urbanized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (uWRF) model at high (1 km) resolution with physically-based rooftop parameterization schemes (conventional, green and cool), a first-time application to the Chicago metropolitan area. We simulated a hot summer period (16-18 August 2013) and assessed (i) UHI reductions for different urban landuse with green/cool roofs, (ii) the interaction of lake breeze and UHI, and (iii) diurnal boundary layer dynamics. The performance of uWRF was evaluated using sensible heat flux and air temperature measurements from an urban mini-field campaign. The simulated roof surface energy balance captured the energy distribution with respective rooftop algorithms. Results showed that daytime roof temperature reduced and varied linearly with increasing green roof fractions, from less than 1 °C for the case of 25% green roof to ˜3 °C during peak daytime for 100% green roof. Diurnal transitions from land to lake breeze and vice versa had a substantial impact on the daytime cycle of roof surface UHI, which had a 3-4 hour lag in comparison to 2 m UHI. Green and cool roofs reduced horizontal and vertical wind speeds and affected lower atmosphere dynamics, including reduced vertical mixing, lower boundary layer depth, and weaker convective rolls. The lowered wind speeds and vertical mixing during daytime led to stagnation of air near the surface, potentially causing air quality issues. The selection of green and cool roofs for UHI mitigation should therefore carefully consider the competing feedbacks. The new results for regional land-lake circulations and boundary layer dynamics from this study may be extended to other urbanized areas, particularly to coastal

  15. Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes from land to the UK river network - Scenario Analysis and possible mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinjili, Shailaja; Hiscock, Kevin; Lovett, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    Nutrient export models, based on land use and land management data, support the analysis of the cause and effect of land use changes and aid in identifying significant nutrient sources. Although various simple approaches such as export coefficient modelling have been used for national scale and regional-scale studies, many of them lack inclusion of process-based elements to the model. In this study, we present a model that describes the river nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) load as a function of nutrient sources, runoff, nutrient retention and hydrogeology. The model was calibrated using measured water quality data on N and P at catchment outlets and was applied to a 2-km resolution dataset established for England, Wales & Scotland. A 2-km resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was developed using the grid and a flow accumulation algorithm in ESRI's ArcGIS. We combine nutrient loads from each 2-km cell with the flow accumulation model to identify the spatial distribution of critical nutrient sources to river water. Subsequently, the model was used to analyse different land management and climate change scenarios. The results of this study and scenario analysis seek to identify potential nutrient sensitive areas and support land use planning and policy decisions.

  16. Development of biotic ligand model-based freshwater aquatic life criteria for lead following US Environmental Protection Agency guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeForest, David K; Santore, Robert C; Ryan, Adam C; Church, Brian G; Chowdhury, M Jasim; Brix, Kevin V

    2017-06-21

    The US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) current ambient water quality criteria (AWQC) for lead (Pb) in freshwater were developed in 1984. The criteria are adjusted for hardness, but more recent studies have demonstrated that other parameters, especially dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and pH, have a much stronger influence on Pb bioavailability. These recent studies have been used to support development of a biotic ligand model (BLM) for Pb in freshwater, such that acute and chronic Pb toxicity can be predicted over a wide range of water chemistry conditions. Following USEPA guidelines for AWQC development and using a methodology consistent with that used by the USEPA in developing its recommended BLM-based criteria for copper in 2007, we propose acute and chronic BLM-based AWQC for Pb in freshwater. In addition to the application of the BLM approach that can better account for site-specific Pb bioavailability, the toxicity data sets presented are much more robust than in 1984, and there are now sufficient chronic Pb toxicity data available that use of an acute-to-chronic ratio is no longer necessary. Over a range of North American surface waters with representative water chemistry conditions, proposed acute BLM-based Pb criteria ranged from approximately 20 to 1000 μg/L and chronic BLM-based Pb criteria ranged from approximately 0.3 to 40 μg/L. The lowest criteria were for water with low DOC (1.2 mg/L), pH (6.7), and hardness (4.3 mg/L as CaCO3), whereas the highest criteria were for water with high DOC (9.8 mg/L), pH (8.2), and hardness (288 mg/L as CaCO3 ). Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;9999:1-9. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  17. Strategic analysis for sustainable urban river aquatic environment using the system dynamic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M T; Chang, Y C

    2006-01-01

    A sustainable aquatic environment, which relates to the issues of pollution mitigation and ecological restoration, is one of the important indicators of the vitality and prosperity of a city. Traditionally, resort to engineering efforts is always the first priority in dealing with such problems. Nevertheless, treated as an integrated system, the nature of the problem should involve many aspects including economic, ecological, environmental, and engineering factors. Meanwhile, the special feature of the time-dependent state has also made such a system a dynamic and complex problem. The current research has employed the concepts of integrated assessment trying to aggregate related studies and tackling the problem as a complete system. With the aid of the system dynamic modeling tool, which is capable of dealing with dynamic and complex problems, the simulation model was formulated following the macrostructure of system behavior. Various strategies for improving the sustainability of the aquatic environment in Love River, Kaohsiung, Taiwan have been evaluated. The decision makers are therefore allowed to choose more effective strategies based on the integrated perspectives.

  18. Polymer damage mitigation---predictive lifetime models of polymer insulation degradation and biorenewable thermosets through cationic polymerization for self-healing applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hondred, Peter Raymond

    Over the past 50 years, the industrial development and applications for polymers and polymer composites has become expansive. However, as with any young technology, the techniques for predicting material damage and resolving material failure are in need of continued development and refinement. This thesis work takes two approaches to polymer damage mitigation---material lifetime prediction and spontaneous damage repair through self-healing while incorporating bio-renewable feedstock. First, material lifetime prediction offers the benefit of identifying and isolating material failures before the effects of damage results in catastrophic failure. Second, self-healing provides a systematic approach to repairing damaged polymer composites, specifically in applications where a hands-on approach or removing the part from service are not feasible. With regard to lifetime prediction, we investigated three specific polymeric materials---polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), poly(ethylene-alt-tetrafluoroethylene) (ETFE), and Kapton. All three have been utilized extensively in the aerospace field as a wire insulation coating. Because of the vast amount of electrical wiring used in aerospace constructions and the potential for electrical and thermal failure, this work develops mathematical models for both the thermal degradation kinetics as well as a lifetime prediction model for electrothermal breakdown. Isoconversional kinetic methods, which plot activation energy as a function of the extent of degradation, present insight into the development each kinetic model. The models for PTFE, ETFE, and Kapton are one step, consecutive three-step, and competitive and consecutive five-step respectively. Statistical analysis shows that an nth order autocatalytic reaction best defined the reaction kinetics for each polymer's degradation. Self-healing polymers arrest crack propagation through the use of an imbedded adhesive that reacts when cracks form. This form of damage mitigation focuses on

  19. Azole Fungicides as Synergists in the Aquatic Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjergager, Maj-Britt Andersen

    , yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae), Aldrich Humic Acid (AHA) and soot). At the tested sorbentconcentrations of 25 mg L-1, yeast and soot significantly increased 48 h aquatic equilibrium concentrationsfor propiconazole while AHA showed significantly increased 48 h aquatic equilibrium concentrations......Despite contaminants occurring as mixtures in the aquatic environment, aquatic risk assessment is basedon single compounds. Mixture effects are estimated by means of additive models, most often able ofpredicting mixture effects within a factor two of observed effects. While this may...... in stormwater runoff ordrain water and in the aquatic environment, the pesticides mainly occur in sorbed form. Sorption istraditionally considered to limit bioaccessibility and toxicity of hydrophobic compounds, hence,synergistic interactions may be limited in natural environments compared to laboratory studies...

  20. Analysis of Methane Mitigation Options using the MARKAL Model for the US: Calibration Data for Methane Emissions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the output for modeling runs that were performed to investigate the effectiveness of various technologies and lay the groundwork for the...

  1. Fish population modeling approaches for assessing direct effects and recovery following mitigation of a pulp mill effluent in Jackfish Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present an approach to link chemically-induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. A predictive population model was developed to translate changes in fecundity measures of white sucker (Catostomus commers...

  2. Aquatic Nuisance Sp[ecies Research Program. Ecological Impacts of Suckermouth Catfishes (Loricariidae) in North America: A Conceptual Model. Volume 14-1, March 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    de la Biodiversidad , Mexico 7: 2-5. Nico, L. 1999a. Pterygoplichthys anisitsi. Nonindigenous aquatic species fact sheet 766. United States...Actinopterygii: Loricariidae) in the mouth of the Coahuayana River, Coahuayana, Michoacán, Mexico. Revista Mexicana de Biodiversidad 83: 294

  3. The use of enclosed plankton communities in aquatic ecotoxicology : fate effects of mercury, cadmium and selected aromatic organics in a marine model ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, J.

    1982-01-01

    Most investigations in ecotoxicology are carried out in the laboratory. Although laboratory experiments are indispensable and yield useful information, it is difficult if not impossible to extrapolate results of short-term laboratory tests currently in use to real field situations. The need in aquat

  4. Pain in aquatic animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneddon, Lynne U

    2015-04-01

    Recent developments in the study of pain in animals have demonstrated the potential for pain perception in a variety of wholly aquatic species such as molluscs, crustaceans and fish. This allows us to gain insight into how the ecological pressures and differential life history of living in a watery medium can yield novel data that inform the comparative physiology and evolution of pain. Nociception is the simple detection of potentially painful stimuli usually accompanied by a reflex withdrawal response, and nociceptors have been found in aquatic invertebrates such as the sea slug Aplysia. It would seem adaptive to have a warning system that allows animals to avoid life-threatening injury, yet debate does still continue over the capacity for non-mammalian species to experience the discomfort or suffering that is a key component of pain rather than a nociceptive reflex. Contemporary studies over the last 10 years have demonstrated that bony fish possess nociceptors that are similar to those in mammals; that they demonstrate pain-related changes in physiology and behaviour that are reduced by painkillers; that they exhibit higher brain activity when painfully stimulated; and that pain is more important than showing fear or anti-predator behaviour in bony fish. The neurophysiological basis of nociception or pain in fish is demonstrably similar to that in mammals. Pain perception in invertebrates is more controversial as they lack the vertebrate brain, yet recent research evidence confirms that there are behavioural changes in response to potentially painful events. This review will assess the field of pain perception in aquatic species, focusing on fish and selected invertebrate groups to interpret how research findings can inform our understanding of the physiology and evolution of pain. Further, if we accept these animals may be capable of experiencing the negative experience of pain, then the wider implications of human use of these animals should be considered.

  5. Aquatic sports and safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Володимир Миколайович Зюзь

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aquatic sports or boating, has become a mass sport and recreation. It is as delightful a holiday as one might wish for, gaining strength around the world and especially in Ukraine. More and more people are eager to see the beauty of the underwater world, enjoy exciting sailing races, long journeys along beautiful rivers and unexplored areas, as well as smooth sailing at the height of the season. The article analyzes the modern aquatic (water tourism hazards that can lie in wait for a person in the water during camping trips and various boating competitions. This kind of sports is dangerous in principle, as aqueous medium is always perilous whether water is rough or calm. Accidents are always possible and tourists may find themselves in water, hypothermia, impossibility to breathe, impactions against different objects in the water resulting. Ships, food and equipment may also be damaged or lost, that is the consequences may be extremely negative. This article includes description of boating types, extreme forms of boating, the design features of the swimming facilities used in boating, practical skills and the ability to apply the facilities; characteristics of waves and currents; types of rivers; forms and methods of transportation and rescue of the drowning people; rendering assistance and first aid to the victims; promotion of safety rules on the water during the boating. The main goals and objectives in preparing aquatic tourism professionals whose main duty is safety, training topics, theoretical and practical materials for training the basics of safety that makes it possible to get acquainted with all the requirements have been discussed. The first attempt to develop general educational standards in training professionals in water sports and safety basing on the new priorities and the principles of modern vocational education has been made in the articles

  6. Conceptual Framework for Aquatic Interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, J.; Krause, S.

    2015-12-01

    Aquatic interfaces are generally characterized by steep gradients of physical, chemical and biological properties due to the contrast between the two adjacent environments. Innovative measurement techniques are required to study the spatially heterogeneous and temporally variable processes. Especially the different spatial and temporal scales are a large challenge. Due to the steep biogeochemical gradients and the intensive structural and compositional heterogeneity, enhanced biogeochemical processing rates are inherent to aquatic interfaces. Nevertheless, the effective turnover depends strongly on the residence time distribution along the flow paths and in sections with particular biogeochemical milieus and reaction kinetics. Thus, identification and characterization of the highly complex flow patterns in and across aquatic interfaces are crucial to understand biogeochemical processing along exchange flow paths and to quantify transport across aquatic interfaces. Hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes are closely coupled at aquatic interfaces. However, interface processing rates are not only enhanced compared to the adjacent compartments that they connect; also completely different reactions might occur if certain thresholds are exceeded or the biogeochemical milieu differs significantly from the adjacent environments. Single events, temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity might increase overall processing rates of aquatic interfaces and thus, should not be neglected when studying aquatic interfaces. Aquatic interfaces are key zones relevant for the ecological state of the entire ecosystem and thus, understanding interface functioning and controls is paramount for ecosystem management. The overall aim of this contribution is a general conceptual framework for aquatic interfaces that is applicable to a wide range of systems, scales and processes.

  7. Exploring Climate Change Effects on Watershed Sediment Yield and Land Cover-Based Mitigation Measures Using Swat Model, RS and Gis: Case of Cagayan River Basin, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Principe, J. A.

    2012-07-01

    The impact of climate change in the Philippines was examined in the country's largest basin-the Cagayan River Basin-by predicting its sediment yield for a long period of time. This was done by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). A set of Landsat imageries were processed to include an atmospheric correction and a filling procedure for cloud and cloud-shadow infested pixels was used to maximize each downloaded scene for a subsequent land cover classification using Maximum Likelihood classifier. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)-DEM was used for the digital elevation model (DEM) requirement of the model while ArcGIS™ provided the platform for the ArcSWAT extension, for storing data and displaying spatial data. The impact of climate change was assessed by varying air surface temperature and amount of precipitation as predicted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. A Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) > 0.4 and coefficient of determination (R2) > 0.5 for both the calibration and validation of the model showed that SWAT model can realistically simulate the hydrological processes in the study area. The model was then utilized for land cover change and climate change analyses and their influence on sediment yield. Results showed a significant relationship exists among the changes in the climate regime, land cover distributions and sediment yield. Finally, the study suggested land cover distribution that can potentially mitigate the serious negative effects of climate change to a regional watershed's sediment yield.

  8. EXPLORING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATERSHED SEDIMENT YIELD AND LAND COVER-BASED MITIGATION MEASURES USING SWAT MODEL, RS AND GIS: CASE OF CAGAYAN RIVER BASIN, PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Principe

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change in the Philippines was examined in the country's largest basin–the Cagayan River Basin–by predicting its sediment yield for a long period of time. This was done by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model, Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information System (GIS. A set of Landsat imageries were processed to include an atmospheric correction and a filling procedure for cloud and cloud-shadow infested pixels was used to maximize each downloaded scene for a subsequent land cover classification using Maximum Likelihood classifier. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM-DEM was used for the digital elevation model (DEM requirement of the model while ArcGIS™ provided the platform for the ArcSWAT extension, for storing data and displaying spatial data. The impact of climate change was assessed by varying air surface temperature and amount of precipitation as predicted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC scenarios. A Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE > 0.4 and coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.5 for both the calibration and validation of the model showed that SWAT model can realistically simulate the hydrological processes in the study area. The model was then utilized for land cover change and climate change analyses and their influence on sediment yield. Results showed a significant relationship exists among the changes in the climate regime, land cover distributions and sediment yield. Finally, the study suggested land cover distribution that can potentially mitigate the serious negative effects of climate change to a regional watershed's sediment yield.

  9. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2015-03-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should

  10. Oral Treatment with the NADPH Oxidase Antagonist Apocynin Mitigates Clinical and Pathological Features of Parkinsonism in the MPTP marmoset Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philippens, Ingrid H. C. H. M.; Wubben, Jacqueline A.; Finsen, Bente; 't Hart, Bert A.

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the therapeutic efficacy of the NADPH oxidase inhibitor apocynin, isolated as principal bioactive component from the medicinal plant Picrorhiza kurroa, in a marmoset MPTP model of Parkinson's disease (PD). The methoxy-substituted catechol apocynin has a similar structure as homo

  11. Oral Treatment with the NADPH Oxidase Antagonist Apocynin Mitigates Clinical and Pathological Features of Parkinsonism in the MPTP marmoset Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philippens, Ingrid H. C. H. M.; Wubben, Jacqueline A.; Finsen, Bente; 't Hart, Bert A.

    This study evaluates the therapeutic efficacy of the NADPH oxidase inhibitor apocynin, isolated as principal bioactive component from the medicinal plant Picrorhiza kurroa, in a marmoset MPTP model of Parkinson's disease (PD). The methoxy-substituted catechol apocynin has a similar structure as

  12. The Isosteroid Alkaloid Imperialine from Bulbs of Fritillaria cirrhosa Mitigates Pulmonary Functional and Structural Impairment and Suppresses Inflammatory Response in a COPD-Like Rat Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Houcong; Wang, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death in the world. Present therapies for COPD have limited effect on reducing the progression of COPD and suppressing the inflammatory response in the lung. Bulbs of Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don (BFC) have been used in many Asian countries for a long time to treat pulmonary diseases, such as cough, expectoration, and asthma. Steroidal alkaloids are the major biological active constituents in BFC, whereby imperialine is one of the important steroidal alkaloids. So far, there are no studies reporting the effect of imperialine on COPD. In this study, we investigated the effect of imperialine on pulmonary function and structure and inflammation in a COPD-like rat model which was induced by the combination of exposure to CS and intratracheal administration of LPS. Our data show that imperialine mitigates pulmonary functional and structural impairment and suppressed inflammatory response in a COPD-like rat model by mediating expression of related cytokines in lung tissues of the COPD-like rats, such as IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, NF-κB, TGF-β1, MMP-9, and TIMP-1. PMID:27524867

  13. The Isosteroid Alkaloid Imperialine from Bulbs of Fritillaria cirrhosa Mitigates Pulmonary Functional and Structural Impairment and Suppresses Inflammatory Response in a COPD-Like Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is the third leading cause of death in the world. Present therapies for COPD have limited effect on reducing the progression of COPD and suppressing the inflammatory response in the lung. Bulbs of Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don (BFC have been used in many Asian countries for a long time to treat pulmonary diseases, such as cough, expectoration, and asthma. Steroidal alkaloids are the major biological active constituents in BFC, whereby imperialine is one of the important steroidal alkaloids. So far, there are no studies reporting the effect of imperialine on COPD. In this study, we investigated the effect of imperialine on pulmonary function and structure and inflammation in a COPD-like rat model which was induced by the combination of exposure to CS and intratracheal administration of LPS. Our data show that imperialine mitigates pulmonary functional and structural impairment and suppressed inflammatory response in a COPD-like rat model by mediating expression of related cytokines in lung tissues of the COPD-like rats, such as IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, NF-κB, TGF-β1, MMP-9, and TIMP-1.

  14. Hungry Horse Dam Fisheries Mitigation Implementation Plan, 1990-2003 Progress (Annual) Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks; Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes

    1993-03-10

    In this document the authors present mitigation implementation activities to protect and enhance resident fish and aquatic habitat affected by the construction and operation of Hungry Horse Dam. This plan only addresses non-operational actions (mitigation measures that do not affect dam operation) described in the 'Fisheries Mitigation Plan for Losses Attributable to the Construction and Operation of Hungry Horse Dam' (Mitigation Plan) submitted to the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council) in March 1991 and in accordance with subsequent Council action on that Mitigation Plan. Operational mitigation was deferred for consideration under the Columbia Basin System Operation Review (SOR) process. This document represents an implementation plan considered and conditionally approved by the Council in March of 1993.

  15. Biologically Informed Individual-Based Network Model for Rift Valley Fever in the US and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoglio, Caterina M.

    2016-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease endemic in sub-Saharan Africa with periodic outbreaks in human and animal populations. Mosquitoes are the primary disease vectors; however, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) can also spread by direct contact with infected tissues. The transmission cycle is complex, involving humans, livestock, and multiple species of mosquitoes. The epidemiology of RVFV in endemic areas is strongly affected by climatic conditions and environmental variables. In this research, we adapt and use a network-based modeling framework to simulate the transmission of RVFV among hypothetical cattle operations in Kansas, US. Our model considers geo-located livestock populations at the individual level while incorporating the role of mosquito populations and the environment at a coarse resolution. Extensive simulations show the flexibility of our modeling framework when applied to specific scenarios to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of mosquito control and livestock movement regulations in reducing the extent and intensity of RVF outbreaks in the United States. PMID:27662585

  16. Multiscale plume modeling of the Deepwater Horizon oil-well blowout for environmental impact assessment and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socolofsky, S. A.; Rezvani, M.

    2010-12-01

    The accidental blowout plume of the Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil well is an unprecedented event that will have far-reaching environmental, economic, and societal impact. The subsurface structure of the blowout plume, including its layered system of intrusions, conforms qualitatively to that predicted in the literature; however, new modeling tools are currently needed to produce highly-resolved predictions of such a complex plume in the stratified and flowing ocean. We present laboratory experiments of multiphase plumes in stratification and crossflow to understand the physical mechanisms that lead to separation among the buoyant dispersed phases (oil and gas) and the entrained and dissolved constituents in the continuous phase. Scale analysis indicates that the DH plume is stratification dominated, and observed locations of hydrocarbon intrusion layers agree well with the experimentally derived empirical scaling laws. New flow visualization measurements in gas plumes in stratification demonstrate that unsteady plume oscillation and detrainment events result from regular shedding of coherent structures on the order of the plume width and are not directly related to the stratification frequency. Similar particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements in weak crossflows characterize the transport mechanisms in the plume wake. The results of these experiments will be used in the context of a National Science Foundation RAPID grant to validate a nested large eddy simulations (LES) / Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model of the DH plume, and early results from this model demonstrate its feasibility to capture the unsteady and complex structure of the plume evolution.

  17. JIT Spraying and Mitigations

    CERN Document Server

    Bania, Piotr

    2010-01-01

    With the discovery of new exploit techniques, novel protection mechanisms are needed as well. Mitigations like DEP (Data Execution Prevention) or ASLR (Address Space Layout Randomization) created a significantly more difficult environment for exploitation. Attackers, however, have recently researched new exploitation methods which are capable of bypassing the operating system’s memory mitigations. One of the newest and most popular exploitation techniques to bypass both of the aforementioned security protections is JIT memory spraying, introduced by Dion Blazakis. In this article we will present a short overview of the JIT spraying technique and also novel mitigation methods against this innovative class of attacks. An anti-JIT spraying library was created as part of our shellcode execution prevention system.

  18. Hungry Horse Dam Fisheries Mitigation, 1992-1993 Progress Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DosSantos, Joe; Vashro, Jim; Lockard, Larry

    1994-06-01

    In February of 1900, over forty agency representatives and interested citizens began development of the 1991 Mitigation Plan. This effort culminated in the 1993 Implementation Plan for mitigation of fish losses attributable to the construction and operation of Hungry Horse Dam. The primary purpose of this biennial report is to inform the public of the status of ongoing mitigation activities resulting from those planning efforts. A habitat improvement project is underway to benefit bull trout in Big Creek in the North Fork drainage of the Flathead River and work is planned in Hay Creek, another North Fork tributary. Bull trout redd counts have been expanded and experimental programs involving genetic evaluation, outmigrant monitoring, and hatchery studies have been initiated, Cutthroat mitigation efforts have focused on habitat improvements in Elliott Creek and Taylor`s Outflow and improvements have been followed by imprint plants of hatchery fish and/or eyed eggs in those streams. Rogers Lake west of Kalispell and Lion Lake, near Hungry Horse, were chemically rehabilitated. Cool and warm water fish habitat has been improved in Halfmoon Lake and Echo Lake. Public education and public interest is important to the future success of mitigation activities. As part of the mitigation team`s public awareness responsibility we have worked with numerous volunteer groups, public agencies, and private landowners to stimulate interest and awareness of mitigation activities and the aquatic ecosystem. The purpose of this biennial report is to foster public awareness of, and support for, mitigation activities as we move forward in implementing the Hungry Horse Dam Fisheries Mitigation Implementation Plan.

  19. PEMODELAN OPTIMASI MITIGASI RISIKO RANTAI PASOK PRODUK/KOMODITAS JAGUNG Optimization Model Of Corn Supply Chain Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suharjito Suharjito

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Besides more complexes, the agricultural product supply chain also was probabilistic, dynamic and higher dependencies. This happened because of the agricultural product was easy broken, the process of planting, the growth and the harvesting depended the season, the yield had variety form and measurement, and the agricultural product was bulky so that the agricultural product was difficult to be handled. The height of the dependency level and the complexity from the supply chain network of the agricultural product made this chain to be more susceptible to the disturbance. The risk of failure for the supply chain could be happen internally (the relations between the organization and the network of the supplier and externally (between the network of the supplier and its environment. Therefore, the needs for supply chain risk management to avoid a result that can continuously occur at any point in the supply network. The purpose of this study was to describe a model of evaluation and risk management supply chain of agricultural products. Model could identify risks of every level of supply chain and provide solutions that can be done to minimize them. The index value of risk on farm level was 26 % higher than the risk at the level of collector (8.78 % and distributors (8.31 %. The model can optimize farmers’ planting schedules to reduce supply risk and price, while also optimizing the selection of suppliers at the level of collectors and distributors with the consideration of minimizing risk and optimizing profits.   Keywords: Risk evaluation, supply chain management, corn supply risk commodity   ABSTRAK   Selain lebih kompleks, rantai pasok produk pertanian juga bersifat probabilistik, dinamis dan kebergantungan yang tinggi. Hal ini terjadi karena produk pertanian bersifat mudah rusak, proses penanaman, pertumbuhan dan pemanenan tergantung musim, hasil panen memiliki bentuk dan ukuran yang bervariasi, dan produk pertanian bersifat kamba

  20. Technical analysis of a river basin-based model of advanced power plant cooling technologies for mitigating water management challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stillwell, Ashlynn S [Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1786, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Clayton, Mary E; Webber, Michael E, E-mail: ashlynn.stillwell@mail.utexas.edu, E-mail: mclayton34@mail.utexas.edu, E-mail: webber@mail.utexas.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C2200, Austin, TX 78712 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Thermoelectric power plants require large volumes of water for cooling, which can introduce drought vulnerability and compete with other water needs. Alternative cooling technologies, such as cooling towers and hybrid wet-dry or dry cooling, present opportunities to reduce water diversions. This case study uses a custom, geographically resolved river basin-based model for eleven river basins in the state of Texas (the Brazos and San Jacinto-Brazos, Colorado and Colorado-Brazos, Cypress, Neches, Nueces, Red, Sabine, San Jacinto, and Trinity River basins), focusing on the Brazos River basin, to analyze water availability during drought. We utilized two existing water availability models for our analysis: (1) the full execution of water rights-a scenario where each water rights holder diverts the full permitted volume with zero return flow, and (2) current conditions-a scenario reflecting actual diversions with associated return flows. Our model results show that switching the cooling technologies at power plants in the eleven analyzed river basins to less water-intensive alternative designs can potentially reduce annual water diversions by 247-703 million m{sup 3}-enough water for 1.3-3.6 million people annually. We consider these results in a geographic context using geographic information system tools and then analyze volume reliability, which is a policymaker's metric that indicates the percentage of total demand actually supplied over a given period. This geographic and volume reliability analysis serves as a measure of drought susceptibility in response to changes in thermoelectric cooling technologies. While these water diversion savings do not alleviate all reliability concerns, the additional streamflow from the use of dry cooling alleviates drought concerns for some municipal water rights holders and might also be sufficient to uphold instream flow requirements for important bays and estuaries on the Texas Gulf coast.

  1. Oral treatment with the NADPH oxidase antagonist apocynin mitigates clinical and pathological features of parkinsonism in the MPTP marmoset model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippens, Ingrid H C H M; Wubben, Jacqueline A; Finsen, Bente; 't Hart, Bert A

    2013-06-01

    This study evaluates the therapeutic efficacy of the NADPH oxidase inhibitor apocynin, isolated as principal bioactive component from the medicinal plant Picrorhiza kurroa, in a marmoset MPTP model of Parkinson's disease (PD). The methoxy-substituted catechol apocynin has a similar structure as homovanillic acid (HVA), a metabolite of dopamine (DA). Apocynin acquires its selective inhibitory capacity of the reactive oxygen species generating NADPH oxidase via metabolic activation by myeloperoxidase (MPO). As MPO is upregulated in activated brain microglia cells of PD patients and in MPTP animal models, the conditions for metabolic activation of apocynin and inhibition of microglia NADPH oxidase are in place. Marmoset monkeys received oral apocynin (100 mg/kg; p.o.) (n = 5) or Gum Arabica (controls; n = 5) three times daily until the end of the study, starting 1 week before PD induction with MPTP (1 mg/kg s.c. for 8 days). Parkinsonian symptoms, motor function, home-cage activity and body weight were monitored to assess the disease development and severity. Post-mortem numbers of the tyrosine hydroxylase expressing DA neurons in the substantia nigra were counted. During the MPTP injections, apocynin limited the body weight loss and relieved parkinsonian symptoms compared to controls (Linear regression, P motor-function deterioration.

  2. Coadministration of Resveratrol and Rice Oil Mitigates Nociception and Oxidative State in a Mouse Fibromyalgia-Like Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Peres Klein

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism underlying pain symptoms in fibromyalgia (FM is not fully understood. Oxidative stress has emerged as pathophysiological event occurring during the development of the disease. The present study aimed at investigating the efficacy of resveratrol associated with rice bran oil on fibromyalgia-like mice model. Subcutaneous injection of reserpine (0.25 mg/Kg during 3 days produced fibromyalgia-like symptoms. Resveratrol and/or rice oil or pregabalin were administered through oral route in therapeutic (single dose and preventive (four doses schemes. In both schemes, treatment with resveratrol associated with rice bran oil and pregabalin significantly reduced mechanical allodynia and thermal hyperalgesia in animals. The preventive scheme displayed antidepressant effect which was demonstrated by the forced swimming test as well as reduced reactive species in the cerebrospinal fluid of reserpinized animals. Taken together, our data provide evidences that the intake of resveratrol associated with rice bran oil plays antinociceptive and antidepressant actions probably through reducing reactive species and suggests the involvement of oxidative stress in this model of FM as possible underlying mechanism of pathogenesis of the disease.

  3. Oral treatment with the NADPH oxidase antagonist apocynin mitigates clinical and pathological features of parkinsonism in the MPTP marmoset model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philippens, Ingrid H C H M; Wubben, Jacqueline A; Finsen, Bente

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the therapeutic efficacy of the NADPH oxidase inhibitor apocynin, isolated as principal bioactive component from the medicinal plant Picrorhiza kurroa, in a marmoset MPTP model of Parkinson's disease (PD). The methoxy-substituted catechol apocynin has a similar structure...... models, the conditions for metabolic activation of apocynin and inhibition of microglia NADPH oxidase are in place. Marmoset monkeys received oral apocynin (100 mg/kg; p.o.) (n = 5) or Gum Arabica (controls; n = 5) three times daily until the end of the study, starting 1 week before PD induction.......5 % and 17.7 ± 6.7 %; P = 0.048) and improved the home cage activity with 32 % (P = 0.029), indicating anti-Parkinson efficacy. Apocynin also increased the number of surviving DA neurons in MPTP-treated marmosets with 8.5 % (P = 0.059), indicating a tendency towards a neuroprotective efficacy. In conclusion...

  4. Coadministration of Resveratrol and Rice Oil Mitigates Nociception and Oxidative State in a Mouse Fibromyalgia-Like Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres Klein, Caroline; Rodrigues Cintra, Marcos; Binda, Nancy; Montijo Diniz, Danuza; Gomez, Marcus Vinicius; Souto, Andre Arigony; de Souza, Alessandra Hubner

    2016-01-01

    The mechanism underlying pain symptoms in fibromyalgia (FM) is not fully understood. Oxidative stress has emerged as pathophysiological event occurring during the development of the disease. The present study aimed at investigating the efficacy of resveratrol associated with rice bran oil on fibromyalgia-like mice model. Subcutaneous injection of reserpine (0.25 mg/Kg) during 3 days produced fibromyalgia-like symptoms. Resveratrol and/or rice oil or pregabalin were administered through oral route in therapeutic (single dose) and preventive (four doses) schemes. In both schemes, treatment with resveratrol associated with rice bran oil and pregabalin significantly reduced mechanical allodynia and thermal hyperalgesia in animals. The preventive scheme displayed antidepressant effect which was demonstrated by the forced swimming test as well as reduced reactive species in the cerebrospinal fluid of reserpinized animals. Taken together, our data provide evidences that the intake of resveratrol associated with rice bran oil plays antinociceptive and antidepressant actions probably through reducing reactive species and suggests the involvement of oxidative stress in this model of FM as possible underlying mechanism of pathogenesis of the disease. PMID:27069683

  5. Modeling the relative roles of the foehn wind and urban expansion in the 2002 Beijing heat wave and possible mitigation by high reflective roofs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Hongyun; Shao, Haiyan; Song, Jie

    2014-02-01

    Rapid urbanization has intensified summer heat waves in recent decades in Beijing, China. In this study, effectiveness of applying high-reflectance roofs on mitigating the warming effects caused by urban expansion and foehn wind was simulated for a record-breaking heat wave occurred in Beijing during July 13-15, 2002. Simulation experiments were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF version 3.0) model coupled with an urban canopy model. The modeled diurnal air temperatures were compared well with station observations in the city and the wind convergence caused by urban heat island (UHI) effect could be simulated clearly. By increasing urban roof albedo, the simulated UHI effect was reduced due to decreased net radiation, and the simulated wind convergence in the urban area was weakened. Using WRF3.0 model, the warming effects caused by urban expansion and foehn wind were quantified separately, and were compared with the cooling effect due to the increased roof albedo. Results illustrated that the foehn warming effect under the northwesterly wind contributed greatly to this heat wave event in Beijing, while contribution from urban expansion accompanied by anthropogenic heating was secondary, and was mostly evident at night. Increasing roof albedo could reduce air temperature both in the day and at night, and could more than offset the urban expansion effect. The combined warming caused by the urban expansion and the foehn wind could be potentially offset with high-reflectance roofs by 58.8 % or cooled by 1.4 °C in the early afternoon on July 14, 2002, the hottest day during the heat wave.

  6. ATP Maintenance via Two Types of ATP Regulators Mitigates Pathological Phenotypes in Mouse Models of Parkinson's Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Nakano

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Parkinson's disease is assumed to be caused by mitochondrial dysfunction in the affected dopaminergic neurons in the brain. We have recently created small chemicals, KUSs (Kyoto University Substances, which can reduce cellular ATP consumption. By contrast, agonistic ligands of ERRs (estrogen receptor-related receptors are expected to raise cellular ATP levels via enhancing ATP production. Here, we show that esculetin functions as an ERR agonist, and its addition to culture media enhances glycolysis and mitochondrial respiration, leading to elevated cellular ATP levels. Subsequently, we show the neuroprotective efficacies of KUSs, esculetin, and GSK4716 (an ERRγ agonist against cell death in Parkinson's disease models. In the surviving neurons, ATP levels and expression levels of α-synuclein and CHOP (an ER stress-mediated cell death executor were all rectified. We propose that maintenance of ATP levels, by inhibiting ATP consumption or enhancing ATP production, or both, would be a promising therapeutic strategy for Parkinson's disease.

  7. Integrated Hidden Markov Model and Bayes Packet Classifier for effective Mitigation of Application DDoS attacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Prabha

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Resisting distributed denial of service (DDoS attacks become more challenging with the availability of resources and techniques to attackers. The application-layer-based DDoS attacks utilize legitimate HTTP requests to overwhelm victim resources are more undetectable and are protocol compliant and non-intrusive. Focusing on the detection for application layer DDoS attacks, the existing scheme provide an access matrix which capture the spatial-temporal patterns of a normal flash crowd on non stationary object. The access matrix captures the spatial-temporal patterns of the normal flash crowd and the anomaly detector based on hidden Markov model (HMM described the dynamics of Access Matrix (AM to detect the application DDoS attacks. However current application layer attacks have high influence on the stationary object as well. In addition the detection threshold for non stationary object should be reevaluated to improve the performance of false positive rate and detection rate of the DDoS attacks.

  8. RNA interference mitigates motor and neuropathological deficits in a cerebellar mouse model of Machado-Joseph disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clévio Nóbrega

    Full Text Available Machado-Joseph disease or Spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 is a progressive fatal neurodegenerative disorder caused by the polyglutamine-expanded protein ataxin-3. Recent studies demonstrate that RNA interference is a promising approach for the treatment of Machado-Joseph disease. However, whether gene silencing at an early time-point is able to prevent the appearance of motor behavior deficits typical of the disease when initiated before onset of the disease had not been explored. Here, using a lentiviral-mediated allele-specific silencing of mutant ataxin-3 in an early pre-symptomatic cerebellar mouse model of Machado-Joseph disease we show that this strategy hampers the development of the motor and neuropathological phenotypic characteristics of the disease. At the histological level, the RNA-specific silencing of mutant ataxin-3 decreased formation of mutant ataxin-3 aggregates, preserved Purkinje cell morphology and expression of neuronal markers while reducing cell death. Importantly, gene silencing prevented the development of impairments in balance, motor coordination, gait and hyperactivity observed in control mice. These data support the therapeutic potential of RNA interference for Machado-Joseph disease and constitute a proof of principle of the beneficial effects of early allele-specific silencing for therapy of this disease.

  9. Functionality Evaluation of a Novel Smart Expandable Pedicle Screw to Mitigate Osteoporosis Effect in Bone Fixation: Modeling and Experimentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmadreza Eshghinejad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel expandable-retractable pedicle screw and analyzes its functionality. A specially designed pedicle screw is described which has the ability to expand and retract using nitinol elements. The screw is designed to expand in body temperature and retract by cooling the screw. This expansion-retraction function is verified in an experiment designed in larger scale using a nitinol antagonistic assembly. The results of this experiment are compared to the results of a finite element model developed in Abaqus in combination with a user material subroutine (UMAT. This code has been developed to analyze the nonlinear thermomechanical behavior of shape memory alloy materials. The functionality of the proposed screw is evaluated with simulation and experimentation in a pullout test as well. The pullout force of a normal screw inserted in a normal bone was simulated, and the result is compared with the results of the expandable screw in osteoporotic bone. Lastly, strength of the designed pedicle screw in a foam block is also verified with experiment. The reported finite element simulations and experiments are the proof for the concept of nitinol expandable-retractable elements on a pedicle screw which validate the functionality in a pullout test.

  10. Aquatic fungi: targeting the forgotten in microbial ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossart, Hans-Peter; Rojas-Jimenez, Keilor

    2016-06-01

    Fungi constitute important and conspicuous components of aquatic microbial communities, but their diversity and functional roles remain poorly characterized. New methods and conceptual frameworks are required to accurately describe their ecological roles, involvement in global cycling processes, and utility for human activities, considering both cultivation-independent techniques as well as experiments in laboratory and in natural ecosystems. Here we highlight recent developments and extant knowledge gaps in aquatic mycology, and provide a conceptual model to expose the importance of fungi in aquatic food webs and related biogeochemical processes.

  11. Is Zeolite a Detoxificant: Modelling of Ferrous Chloride/Zeolite Application of Aquatic Organisms on Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss to Determine Its Effects on Oxidative Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arzu UÇAR

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Populations of native fish and aquatic ecosystems have been negatively affected by the contamination of ground and surface waters as a result of various activities. Due to the ferrous chloride (FeCl2, which is used as the reducing agent for the organic synthesis reactions in the contamination of water column and sediment, iron salts may be very toxic for some aquatic organism. In order to minimize these effects, natural products such as zeolite have been widely used recently. For this reason, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss were exposed to FeCl2 and/or zeolite for 28 days and their oxidative stress responses were investigated. At the end of the treatment period, oxidative stress responses were determined with antioxidant enzyme activities in the samples taken from liver and kidneys. CAT, SOD, GPx and MDA values for kidney and liver tissues were found statistically important between control and treatment groups (p<0.05. In this study, zeolite application provided lower values in terms of enzyme activities, and the protective effect of zeolite for aquatic organism was supported by biochemical parameters. 

  12. Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nicholas L.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of national and international space debris mitigation guides is to promote the preservation of near-Earth space for applications and exploration missions far into the future. To accomplish this objective, the accumulation of objects, particularly in long-lived orbits, must be eliminated or curtailed.

  13. Acrylamide mitigation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palermo, M.; Gökmen, V.; Meulenaer, De B.; Ciesarová, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Pedreschi, F.; Fogliano, V.

    2016-01-01

    FoodDrinkEurope Federation recently released the latest version of the Acrylamide Toolbox to support manufacturers in acrylamide reduction activities giving indication about the possible mitigation strategies. The Toolbox is intended for small and medium size enterprises with limited R&D reso

  14. Wetlands Mitigation Banking Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-07-01

    the financial risk associated with are normally established in advance, mitigation permitted activities. banks eliminate the lag time between loss and...management natural state or to an enhanced condition and techniques. None of the traditional wetlands begin to amass bankable credits has also been management

  15. Evaluati