Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Failure probability analysis of optical grid
Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng
2008-11-01
Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.
Probability of Failure in Random Vibration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...
Pipe failure probability - the Thomas paper revisited
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lydell, B.O.Y.
2000-01-01
Almost twenty years ago, in Volume 2 of Reliability Engineering (the predecessor of Reliability Engineering and System Safety), a paper by H. M. Thomas of Rolls Royce and Associates Ltd. presented a generalized approach to the estimation of piping and vessel failure probability. The 'Thomas-approach' used insights from actual failure statistics to calculate the probability of leakage and conditional probability of rupture given leakage. It was intended for practitioners without access to data on the service experience with piping and piping system components. This article revisits the Thomas paper by drawing on insights from development of a new database on piping failures in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide (SKI-PIPE). Partially sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI), the R and D leading up to this note was performed during 1994-1999. Motivated by data requirements of reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the new database supports statistical analysis of piping failure data. Against the background of this database development program, the article reviews the applicability of the 'Thomas approach' in applied risk and reliability analysis. It addresses the question whether a new and expanded database on the service experience with piping systems would alter the original piping reliability correlation as suggested by H. M. Thomas
Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ishikura, Syuichi; Futakawa, Masatoshi; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro; Ikeda, Yujiro
2005-03-01
Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As a result, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 -11 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel by using mercury-leakage sensors. (author)
14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.
2010-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle failure...
Failure-probability driven dose painting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Kristensen, Claus A.; Rasmussen, Jacob; Specht, Lena; Berthelsen, Anne K.; Bentzen, Søren M.
2013-01-01
Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). The total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity
Incorporation of various uncertainties in dependent failure-probability estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Samanta, P.K.; Mitra, S.P.
1982-01-01
This paper describes an approach that allows the incorporation of various types of uncertainties in the estimation of dependent failure (common mode failure) probability. The types of uncertainties considered are attributable to data, modeling and coupling. The method developed is applied to a class of dependent failures, i.e., multiple human failures during testing, maintenance and calibration. Estimation of these failures is critical as they have been shown to be significant contributors to core melt probability in pressurized water reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shimada, Yoshio
2000-01-01
It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION GUICHONG LI, NATHALIE JAPKOWICZ, IAN HOFFMAN,...
Probability distribution of machining center failures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jia Yazhou; Wang Molin; Jia Zhixin
1995-01-01
Through field tracing research for 24 Chinese cutter-changeable CNC machine tools (machining centers) over a period of one year, a database of operation and maintenance for machining centers was built, the failure data was fitted to the Weibull distribution and the exponential distribution, the effectiveness was tested, and the failure distribution pattern of machining centers was found. Finally, the reliability characterizations for machining centers are proposed
Failure frequencies and probabilities applicable to BWR and PWR piping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bush, S.H.; Chockie, A.D.
1996-03-01
This report deals with failure probabilities and failure frequencies of nuclear plant piping and the failure frequencies of flanges and bellows. Piping failure probabilities are derived from Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code calculations based on fatigue and intergranular stress corrosion as failure mechanisms. Values for both failure probabilities and failure frequencies are cited from several sources to yield a better evaluation of the spread in mean and median values as well as the widths of the uncertainty bands. A general conclusion is that the numbers from WASH-1400 often used in PRAs are unduly conservative. Failure frequencies for both leaks and large breaks tend to be higher than would be calculated using the failure probabilities, primarily because the frequencies are based on a relatively small number of operating years. Also, failure probabilities are substantially lower because of the probability distributions used in PRAISE calculations. A general conclusion is that large LOCA probability values calculated using PRAISE will be quite small, on the order of less than 1E-8 per year (<1E-8/year). The values in this report should be recognized as having inherent limitations and should be considered as estimates and not absolute values. 24 refs 24 refs
Li, Xin; Zhang, Lu; Tang, Ying; Huang, Shanguo
2018-03-01
The light-tree-based optical multicasting (LT-OM) scheme provides a spectrum- and energy-efficient method to accommodate emerging multicast services. Some studies focus on the survivability technologies for LTs against a fixed number of link failures, such as single-link failure. However, a few studies involve failure probability constraints when building LTs. It is worth noting that each link of an LT plays different important roles under failure scenarios. When calculating the failure probability of an LT, the importance of its every link should be considered. We design a link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution (LIFPMS) for multicast LTs under independent failure model and shared risk link group failure model. Based on the LIFPMS, we put forward the minimum failure probability (MFP) problem for the LT-OM scheme. Heuristic approaches are developed to address the MFP problem in elastic optical networks. Numerical results show that the LIFPMS provides an accurate metric for calculating the failure probability of multicast LTs and enhances the reliability of the LT-OM scheme while accommodating multicast services.
PWR reactor pressure vessel failure probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dufresne, J.; Lanore, J.M.; Lucia, A.C.; Elbaz, J.; Brunnhuber, R.
1980-05-01
To evaluate the rupture probability of a LWR vessel a probabilistic method using the fracture mechanics under probabilistic form has been proposed previously, but it appears that more accurate evaluation is possible. In consequence a joint collaboration agreement signed in 1976 between CEA, EURATOM, JRC Ispra and FRAMATOME set up and started a research program covering three parts: a computer code development, data acquisition and processing, and a support experimental program which aims at clarifying the most important parameters used in the COVASTOL computer code
Estimation of failure probabilities of linear dynamic systems by ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
An iterative method for estimating the failure probability for certain time-variant reliability problems has been developed. In the paper, the focus is on the displacement response of a linear oscillator driven by white noise. Failure is then assumed to occur when the displacement response exceeds a critical threshold.
Finding upper bounds for software failure probabilities - experiments and results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kristiansen, Monica; Winther, Rune
2005-09-01
This report looks into some aspects of using Bayesian hypothesis testing to find upper bounds for software failure probabilities. In the first part, the report evaluates the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach for finding upper bounds for failure probabilities of single software components. The report shows how different choices of prior probability distributions for a software component's failure probability influence the number of tests required to obtain adequate confidence in a software component. In the evaluation, both the effect of the shape of the prior distribution as well as one's prior confidence in the software component were investigated. In addition, different choices of prior probability distributions are discussed based on their relevance in a software context. In the second part, ideas on how the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach can be extended to assess systems consisting of multiple software components are given. One of the main challenges when assessing systems consisting of multiple software components is to include dependency aspects in the software reliability models. However, different types of failure dependencies between software components must be modelled differently. Identifying different types of failure dependencies are therefore an important condition for choosing a prior probability distribution, which correctly reflects one's prior belief in the probability for software components failing dependently. In this report, software components include both general in-house software components, as well as pre-developed software components (e.g. COTS, SOUP, etc). (Author)
A probability model for the failure of pressure containing parts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, H.M.
1978-01-01
The model provides a method of estimating the order of magnitude of the leakage failure probability of pressure containing parts. It is a fatigue based model which makes use of the statistics available for both specimens and vessels. Some novel concepts are introduced but essentially the model simply quantifies the obvious i.e. that failure probability increases with increases in stress levels, number of cycles, volume of material and volume of weld metal. A further model based on fracture mechanics estimates the catastrophic fraction of leakage failures. (author)
Failure Probability Estimation of Wind Turbines by Enhanced Monte Carlo
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Naess, Arvid
2012-01-01
This paper discusses the estimation of the failure probability of wind turbines required by codes of practice for designing them. The Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulations may be used for this reason conceptually as an alternative to the popular Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method. However......, estimation of very low failure probabilities with SMC simulations leads to unacceptably high computational costs. In this study, an Enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method is proposed that overcomes this obstacle. The method has advantages over both POT and SMC in terms of its low computational cost and accuracy...... is controlled by the pitch controller. This provides a fair framework for comparison of the behavior and failure event of the wind turbine with emphasis on the effect of the pitch controller. The Enhanced Monte Carlo method is then applied to the model and the failure probabilities of the model are estimated...
The distributed failure probability approach to dependent failure analysis, and its application
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hughes, R.P.
1989-01-01
The Distributed Failure Probability (DFP) approach to the problem of dependent failures in systems is presented. The basis of the approach is that the failure probability of a component is a variable. The source of this variability is the change in the 'environment' of the component, where the term 'environment' is used to mean not only obvious environmental factors such as temperature etc., but also such factors as the quality of maintenance and manufacture. The failure probability is distributed among these various 'environments' giving rise to the Distributed Failure Probability method. Within the framework which this method represents, modelling assumptions can be made, based both on engineering judgment and on the data directly. As such, this DFP approach provides a soundly based and scrutable technique by which dependent failures can be quantitatively assessed. (orig.)
Hydra-Ring: a computational framework to combine failure probabilities
Diermanse, Ferdinand; Roscoe, Kathryn; IJmker, Janneke; Mens, Marjolein; Bouwer, Laurens
2013-04-01
This presentation discusses the development of a new computational framework for the safety assessment of flood defence systems: Hydra-Ring. Hydra-Ring computes the failure probability of a flood defence system, which is composed of a number of elements (e.g., dike segments, dune segments or hydraulic structures), taking all relevant uncertainties explicitly into account. This is a major step forward in comparison with the current Dutch practice in which the safety assessment is done separately per individual flood defence section. The main advantage of the new approach is that it will result in a more balanced prioratization of required mitigating measures ('more value for money'). Failure of the flood defence system occurs if any element within the system fails. Hydra-Ring thus computes and combines failure probabilities of the following elements: - Failure mechanisms: A flood defence system can fail due to different failure mechanisms. - Time periods: failure probabilities are first computed for relatively small time scales (assessment of flood defense systems, Hydra-Ring can also be used to derive fragility curves, to asses the efficiency of flood mitigating measures, and to quantify the impact of climate change and land subsidence on flood risk. Hydra-Ring is being developed in the context of the Dutch situation. However, the computational concept is generic and the model is set up in such a way that it can be applied to other areas as well. The presentation will focus on the model concept and probabilistic computation techniques.
Determination of bounds on failure probability in the presence of ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In particular, fuzzy set theory provides a more rational framework for ..... indicating that the random variations inT andO2 do not affect failure probability significantly. ... The upper-bound for PF shown in figure 6 can be used in decision-making.
Approximative determination of failure probabilities in probabilistic fracture mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Riesch-Oppermann, H.; Brueckner, A.
1987-01-01
The possibility of using FORM in probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) is investigated. After a short review of the method and a description of some specific problems occurring in PFM applications, results obtained with FORM for the failure probabilities in a typical PFM problem (fatigue crack growth) are compared with those determined by a Monte Carlo simulation. (orig./HP)
Failure probability of PWR reactor coolant loop piping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lo, T.; Woo, H.H.; Holman, G.S.; Chou, C.K.
1984-02-01
This paper describes the results of assessments performed on the PWR coolant loop piping of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering plants. For direct double-ended guillotine break (DEGB), consideration was given to crack existence probability, initial crack size distribution, hydrostatic proof test, preservice inspection, leak detection probability, crack growth characteristics, and failure criteria based on the net section stress failure and tearing modulus stability concept. For indirect DEGB, fragilities of major component supports were estimated. The system level fragility was then calculated based on the Boolean expression involving these fragilities. Indirect DEGB due to seismic effects was calculated by convolving the system level fragility and the seismic hazard curve. The results indicate that the probability of occurrence of both direct and indirect DEGB is extremely small, thus, postulation of DEGB in design should be eliminated and replaced by more realistic criteria
Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.
1987-01-01
This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery
Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.
1987-01-01
This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dundulis, Gintautas; Žutautaitė, Inga; Janulionis, Remigijus; Ušpuras, Eugenijus; Rimkevičius, Sigitas; Eid, Mohamed
2016-01-01
In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well. - Highlights: • Degradation mechanisms of natural gas transmission pipelines. • Fracture mechanic analysis of the pipe with crack. • Stress evaluation of the pipe with critical crack. • Deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis of gas pipeline. • Integrated estimation of pipeline failure probability by Bayesian method.
Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.
2009-05-01
The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garza, J. [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Millwater, H., E-mail: harry.millwater@utsa.edu [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)
2012-04-15
A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.
Sensitivity of the probability of failure to probability of detection curve regions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garza, J.; Millwater, H.
2016-01-01
Non-destructive inspection (NDI) techniques have been shown to play a vital role in fracture control plans, structural health monitoring, and ensuring availability and reliability of piping, pressure vessels, mechanical and aerospace equipment. Probabilistic fatigue simulations are often used in order to determine the efficacy of an inspection procedure with the NDI method modeled as a probability of detection (POD) curve. These simulations can be used to determine the most advantageous NDI method for a given application. As an aid to this process, a first order sensitivity method of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to regions of the POD curve (lower tail, middle region, right tail) is developed and presented here. The sensitivity method computes the partial derivative of the POF with respect to a change in each region of a POD or multiple POD curves. The sensitivities are computed at no cost by reusing the samples from an existing Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. A numerical example is presented considering single and multiple inspections. - Highlights: • Sensitivities of probability-of-failure to a region of probability-of-detection curve. • The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost. • Sensitivities identify the important region of a POD curve. • Sensitivities can be used as a guide to selecting the optimal POD curve.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garza, J.; Millwater, H.
2012-01-01
A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.
NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure
Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.
2002-10-01
An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.
NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure
Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.
2002-01-01
An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.
VISA-2, Reactor Vessel Failure Probability Under Thermal Shock
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simonen, F.; Johnson, K.
1992-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: VISA2 (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis) was developed to estimate the failure probability of nuclear reactor pressure vessels under pressurized thermal shock conditions. The deterministic portion of the code performs heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics calculations for a vessel subjected to a user-specified temperature and pressure transient. The probabilistic analysis performs a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of vessel failure. Parameters such as initial crack size and position, copper and nickel content, fluence, and the fracture toughness values for crack initiation and arrest are treated as random variables. Linear elastic fracture mechanics methods are used to model crack initiation and growth. This includes cladding effects in the heat transfer, stress, and fracture mechanics calculations. The simulation procedure treats an entire vessel and recognizes that more than one flaw can exist in a given vessel. The flaw model allows random positioning of the flaw within the vessel wall thickness, and the user can specify either flaw length or length-to-depth aspect ratio for crack initiation and arrest predictions. The flaw size distribution can be adjust on the basis of different inservice inspection techniques and inspection conditions. The toughness simulation model includes a menu of alternative equations for predicting the shift in the reference temperature of the nil-ductility transition. 2 - Method of solution: The solution method uses closed form equations for temperatures, stresses, and stress intensity factors. A polynomial fitting procedure approximates the specified pressure and temperature transient. Failure probabilities are calculated by a Monte Carlo simulation. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of 30 welds. VISA2 models only the belt-line (cylindrical) region of a reactor vessel. The stresses are a function of the radial (through-wall) coordinate only
Reactor materials program process water component failure probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daugherty, W. L.
1988-01-01
The maximum rate loss of coolant accident for the Savannah River Production Reactors is presently specified as the abrupt double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of a large process water pipe. This accident is not considered credible in light of the low applied stresses and the inherent ductility of the piping materials. The Reactor Materials Program was initiated to provide the technical basis for an alternate, credible maximum rate LOCA. The major thrust of this program is to develop an alternate worst case accident scenario by deterministic means. In addition, the probability of a DEGB is also being determined; to show that in addition to being mechanistically incredible, it is also highly improbable. The probability of a DEGB of the process water piping is evaluated in two parts: failure by direct means, and indirectly-induced failure. These two areas have been discussed in other reports. In addition, the frequency of a large bread (equivalent to a DEGB) in other process water system components is assessed. This report reviews the large break frequency for each component as well as the overall large break frequency for the reactor system
Failure probability estimate of type 304 stainless steel piping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daugherty, W.L.; Awadalla, N.G.; Sindelar, R.L.; Mehta, H.S.; Ranganath, S.
1989-01-01
The primary source of in-service degradation of the SRS production reactor process water piping is intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). IGSCC has occurred in a limited number of weld heat affected zones, areas known to be susceptible to IGSCC. A model has been developed to combine crack growth rates, crack size distributions, in-service examination reliability estimates and other considerations to estimate the pipe large-break frequency. This frequency estimates the probability that an IGSCC crack will initiate, escape detection by ultrasonic (UT) examination, and grow to instability prior to extending through-wall and being detected by the sensitive leak detection system. These events are combined as the product of four factors: (1) the probability that a given weld heat affected zone contains IGSCC; (2) the conditional probability, given the presence of IGSCC, that the cracking will escape detection during UT examination; (3) the conditional probability, given a crack escapes detection by UT, that it will not grow through-wall and be detected by leakage; (4) the conditional probability, given a crack is not detected by leakage, that it grows to instability prior to the next UT exam. These four factors estimate the occurrence of several conditions that must coexist in order for a crack to lead to a large break of the process water piping. When evaluated for the SRS production reactors, they produce an extremely low break frequency. The objective of this paper is to present the assumptions, methodology, results and conclusions of a probabilistic evaluation for the direct failure of the primary coolant piping resulting from normal operation and seismic loads. This evaluation was performed to support the ongoing PRA effort and to complement deterministic analyses addressing the credibility of a double-ended guillotine break
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bickel, J.H.
1983-01-01
The quantification of the containment event trees in the Millstone Unit 3 Probabilistic Safety Study utilizes a conditional probability of failure given high pressure which is based on a new approach. The generation of this conditional probability was based on a weakest link failure mode model which considered contributions from a number of overlapping failure modes. This overlap effect was due to a number of failure modes whose mean failure pressures were clustered within a 5 psi range and which had uncertainties due to variances in material strengths and analytical uncertainties which were between 9 and 15 psi. Based on a review of possible probability laws to describe the failure probability of individual structural failure modes, it was determined that a Weibull probability law most adequately described the randomness in the physical process of interest. The resultant conditional probability of failure is found to have a median failure pressure of 132.4 psia. The corresponding 5-95 percentile values are 112 psia and 146.7 psia respectively. The skewed nature of the conditional probability of failure vs. pressure results in a lower overall containment failure probability for an appreciable number of the severe accident sequences of interest, but also probabilities which are more rigorously traceable from first principles
Impact of proof test interval and coverage on probability of failure of safety instrumented function
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jin, Jianghong; Pang, Lei; Hu, Bin; Wang, Xiaodong
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Introduction of proof test coverage makes the calculation of the probability of failure for SIF more accurate. • The probability of failure undetected by proof test is independently defined as P TIF and calculated. • P TIF is quantified using reliability block diagram and simple formula of PFD avg . • Improving proof test coverage and adopting reasonable test period can reduce the probability of failure for SIF. - Abstract: Imperfection of proof test can result in the safety function failure of safety instrumented system (SIS) at any time in its life period. IEC61508 and other references ignored or only elementarily analyzed the imperfection of proof test. In order to further study the impact of the imperfection of proof test on the probability of failure for safety instrumented function (SIF), the necessity of proof test and influence of its imperfection on system performance was first analyzed theoretically. The probability of failure for safety instrumented function resulted from the imperfection of proof test was defined as probability of test independent failures (P TIF ), and P TIF was separately calculated by introducing proof test coverage and adopting reliability block diagram, with reference to the simplified calculation formula of average probability of failure on demand (PFD avg ). Research results show that: the shorter proof test period and the higher proof test coverage indicate the smaller probability of failure for safety instrumented function. The probability of failure for safety instrumented function which is calculated by introducing proof test coverage will be more accurate.
Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on subset simulation method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Dongqing; Wang Baosheng; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing
2012-01-01
In order to solve the problem of multi-dimensional epistemic uncertainties and small functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative reliability analysis algorithm called subset simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo was presented. The method is found on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional failure probabilities by introducing a proper choice of intermediate failure events. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to efficiently generate conditional samples for estimating the conditional failure probabilities. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system, for example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters were considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure was estimated with subset simulation method. The numerical results demonstrate that subset simulation method has the high computing efficiency and excellent computing accuracy compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)
A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.
1995-01-01
The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary
Fuzzy Failure Probability of Transmission Pipelines in the Niger ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We undertake the apportioning of failure possibility on twelve identified third party activities contributory to failure of transmission pipelines in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, using the concept of fuzzy possibility scores. Expert elicitation technique generates linguistic variables that are transformed using fuzzy set theory ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi
2002-01-01
In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)
2002-09-01
In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied
Personality Changes as a Function of Minimum Competency Test Success or Failure.
Richman, Charles L.; And Others
1987-01-01
The psychological effects of success and failure on the North Carolina Minimum Competency Test (MCT) were examined. Subjects were high school students, who were pre- and post-tested using the Rosenberg Self Esteem Scale and the High School Personality Questionnaire. Self-esteem decreased following knowledge of MCT failure. (LMO)
Minimum Probability of Error-Based Equalization Algorithms for Fading Channels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janos Levendovszky
2007-06-01
Full Text Available Novel channel equalizer algorithms are introduced for wireless communication systems to combat channel distortions resulting from multipath propagation. The novel algorithms are based on newly derived bounds on the probability of error (PE and guarantee better performance than the traditional zero forcing (ZF or minimum mean square error (MMSE algorithms. The new equalization methods require channel state information which is obtained by a fast adaptive channel identification algorithm. As a result, the combined convergence time needed for channel identification and PE minimization still remains smaller than the convergence time of traditional adaptive algorithms, yielding real-time equalization. The performance of the new algorithms is tested by extensive simulations on standard mobile channels.
Optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network: minimum probability of congestion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kerner, Boris S, E-mail: boris.kerner@daimler.com [Daimler AG, GR/PTF, HPC: G021, 71059 Sindelfingen (Germany)
2011-03-04
We introduce an optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network with road bottlenecks. This network breakdown minimization (BM) principle states that the network optimum is reached when link flow rates are assigned in the network in such a way that the probability for spontaneous occurrence of traffic breakdown in at least one of the network bottlenecks during a given observation time reaches the minimum possible value. Based on numerical simulations with a stochastic three-phase traffic flow model, we show that in comparison to the well-known Wardrop's principles, the application of the BM principle permits considerably greater network inflow rates at which no traffic breakdown occurs and, therefore, free flow remains in the whole network. (fast track communication)
Optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network: minimum probability of congestion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kerner, Boris S
2011-01-01
We introduce an optimum principle for a vehicular traffic network with road bottlenecks. This network breakdown minimization (BM) principle states that the network optimum is reached when link flow rates are assigned in the network in such a way that the probability for spontaneous occurrence of traffic breakdown in at least one of the network bottlenecks during a given observation time reaches the minimum possible value. Based on numerical simulations with a stochastic three-phase traffic flow model, we show that in comparison to the well-known Wardrop's principles, the application of the BM principle permits considerably greater network inflow rates at which no traffic breakdown occurs and, therefore, free flow remains in the whole network. (fast track communication)
average probability of failure on demand estimation for burner
African Journals Online (AJOL)
HOD
Pij – Probability from state i to j. 1. INTRODUCTION. In the process .... the numerical value of the PFD as result of components, sub-system ... ignored in probabilistic risk assessment it may lead to ...... Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS.
Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.
Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew
2011-07-01
Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
Importance sampling for failure probabilities in computing and data transmission
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren
2009-01-01
In this paper we study efficient simulation algorithms for estimating P(X›x), where X is the total time of a job with ideal time $T$ that needs to be restarted after a failure. The main tool is importance sampling, where a good importance distribution is identified via an asymptotic description...... of the conditional distribution of T given X›x. If T≡t is constant, the problem reduces to the efficient simulation of geometric sums, and a standard algorithm involving a Cramér-type root, γ(t), is available. However, we also discuss an algorithm that avoids finding the root. If T is random, particular attention...... is given to T having either a gamma-like tail or a regularly varying tail, and to failures at Poisson times. Different types of conditional limit occur, in particular exponentially tilted Gumbel distributions and Pareto distributions. The algorithms based upon importance distributions for T using...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Liu, W. F.
2013-01-01
Estimation of extreme response and failure probability of structures subjected to ultimate design loads is essential for structural design of wind turbines according to the new standard IEC61400-1. This task is focused on in the present paper in virtue of probability density evolution method (PDEM......), which underlies the schemes of random vibration analysis and structural reliability assessment. The short-term rare failure probability of 5-mega-watt wind turbines, for illustrative purposes, in case of given mean wind speeds and turbulence levels is investigated through the scheme of extreme value...... distribution instead of any other approximate schemes of fitted distribution currently used in statistical extrapolation techniques. Besides, the comparative studies against the classical fitted distributions and the standard Monte Carlo techniques are carried out. Numerical results indicate that PDEM exhibits...
Importance Sampling for Failure Probabilities in Computing and Data Transmission
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren
We study efficient simulation algorithms for estimating P(Χ > χ), where Χ is the total time of a job with ideal time T that needs to be restarted after a failure. The main tool is importance sampling where one tries to identify a good importance distribution via an asymptotic description...... of the conditional distribution of T given Χ > χ. If T ≡ t is constant, the problem reduces to the efficient simulation of geometric sums, and a standard algorithm involving a Cramér type root γ(t) is available. However, we also discuss an algorithm avoiding the rootfinding. If T is random, particular attention...... is given to T having either a gamma-like tail or a regularly varying tail, and to failures at Poisson times. Different type of conditional limits occur, in particular exponentially tilted Gumbel distributions and Pareto distributions. The algorithms based upon importance distributions for T using...
Human error recovery failure probability when using soft controls in computerized control rooms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jang, Inseok; Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun; Jung, Wondea
2014-01-01
Many literatures categorized recovery process into three phases; detection of problem situation, explanation of problem causes or countermeasures against problem, and end of recovery. Although the focus of recovery promotion has been on categorizing recovery phases and modeling recovery process, research related to human recovery failure probabilities has not been perform actively. On the other hand, a few study regarding recovery failure probabilities were implemented empirically. Summarizing, researches that have performed so far have several problems in terms of use in human reliability analysis (HRA). By adopting new human-system interfaces that are based on computer-based technologies, the operation environment of MCRs in NPPs has changed from conventional MCRs to advanced MCRs. Because of the different interfaces between conventional and advanced MCRs, different recovery failure probabilities should be considered in the HRA for advanced MCRs. Therefore, this study carries out an empirical analysis of human error recovery probabilities under an advanced MCR mockup called compact nuclear simulator (CNS). The aim of this work is not only to compile a recovery failure probability database using the simulator for advanced MCRs but also to collect recovery failure probability according to defined human error modes to compare that which human error mode has highest recovery failure probability. The results show that recovery failure probability regarding wrong screen selection was lowest among human error modes, which means that most of human error related to wrong screen selection can be recovered. On the other hand, recovery failure probabilities of operation selection omission and delayed operation were 1.0. These results imply that once subject omitted one task in the procedure, they have difficulties finding and recovering their errors without supervisor's assistance. Also, wrong screen selection had an effect on delayed operation. That is, wrong screen
Main factors for fatigue failure probability of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Machida, Hideo; Suzuki, Masaaki; Kasahara, Naoto
2015-01-01
It is very important to grasp failure probability and failure mode appropriately to carry out risk reduction measures of nuclear power plants. To clarify the important factors for failure probability and failure mode of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation, failure probability analyses were performed by changing the values of a stress range, stress ratio, stress components and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factors for the failure probability are range, stress ratio (mean stress condition) and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factor for the failure mode is a circumferential angle range of fluid thermal fluctuation. When a large fluid thermal fluctuation acts on the entire circumferential surface of the pipe, the probability of pipe breakage increases, calling for measures to prevent such a failure and reduce the risk to the plant. When the circumferential angle subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation is small, the failure mode of piping is leakage and the corrective maintenance might be applicable from the viewpoint of risk to the plant. (author)
Classification of resistance to passive motion using minimum probability of error criterion.
Chan, H C; Manry, M T; Kondraske, G V
1987-01-01
Neurologists diagnose many muscular and nerve disorders by classifying the resistance to passive motion of patients' limbs. Over the past several years, a computer-based instrument has been developed for automated measurement and parameterization of this resistance. In the device, a voluntarily relaxed lower extremity is moved at constant velocity by a motorized driver. The torque exerted on the extremity by the machine is sampled, along with the angle of the extremity. In this paper a computerized technique is described for classifying a patient's condition as 'Normal' or 'Parkinson disease' (rigidity), from the torque versus angle curve for the knee joint. A Legendre polynomial, fit to the curve, is used to calculate a set of eight normally distributed features of the curve. The minimum probability of error approach is used to classify the curve as being from a normal or Parkinson disease patient. Data collected from 44 different subjects was processes and the results were compared with an independent physician's subjective assessment of rigidity. There is agreement in better than 95% of the cases, when all of the features are used.
[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].
Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel
2004-01-01
To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.
Determination of the failure probability in the weld region of ap-600 vessel for transient condition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wahyono, I.P.
1997-01-01
Failure probability in the weld region of AP-600 vessel was determined for transient condition scenario. The type of transient is increase of the heat removal from primary cooling system due to sudden opening of safety valves or steam relief valves on the secondary cooling system or the steam generator. Temperature and pressure in the vessel was considered as the base of deterministic calculation of the stress intensity factor. Calculation of film coefficient of the convective heat transfers is a function of the transient time and water parameter. Pressure, material temperature, flaw depth and transient time are variables for the stress intensity factor. Failure probability consideration was done by using the above information in regard with the flaw and probability distributions of Octavia II and Marshall. Calculation of the failure probability by probability fracture mechanic simulation is applied on the weld region. Failure of the vessel is assumed as a failure of the weld material with one crack which stress intensity factor applied is higher than the critical stress intensity factor. VISA II code (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis II) was used for deterministic calculation and simulation. Failure probability of the material is 1.E-5 for Octavia II distribution and 4E-6 for marshall distribution for each transient event postulated. The failure occurred at the 1.7th menit of the initial transient under 12.53 ksi of the pressure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shang Yanlong; Cai Qi; Chen Lisheng; Zhang Yangwei
2012-01-01
In this paper, the combined method of response surface and importance sampling was applied for calculation of parameter failure probability of the thermodynamic system. The mathematics model was present for the parameter failure of physics process in the thermodynamic system, by which the combination arithmetic model of response surface and importance sampling was established, then the performance degradation model of the components and the simulation process of parameter failure in the physics process of thermodynamic system were also present. The parameter failure probability of the purification water system in nuclear reactor was obtained by the combination method. The results show that the combination method is an effective method for the calculation of the parameter failure probability of the thermodynamic system with high dimensionality and non-linear characteristics, because of the satisfactory precision with less computing time than the direct sampling method and the drawbacks of response surface method. (authors)
Automatic Monitoring System Design and Failure Probability Analysis for River Dikes on Steep Channel
Chang, Yin-Lung; Lin, Yi-Jun; Tung, Yeou-Koung
2017-04-01
The purposes of this study includes: (1) design an automatic monitoring system for river dike; and (2) develop a framework which enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes during a rainstorm. The historical dike failure data collected in this study indicate that most dikes in Taiwan collapsed under the 20-years return period discharge, which means the probability of dike failure is much higher than that of overtopping. We installed the dike monitoring system on the Chiu-She Dike which located on the middle stream of Dajia River, Taiwan. The system includes: (1) vertical distributed pore water pressure sensors in front of and behind the dike; (2) Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) to measure the displacement of dike; (3) wireless floating device to measure the scouring depth at the toe of dike; and (4) water level gauge. The monitoring system recorded the variation of pore pressure inside the Chiu-She Dike and the scouring depth during Typhoon Megi. The recorded data showed that the highest groundwater level insides the dike occurred 15 hours after the peak discharge. We developed a framework which accounts for the uncertainties from return period discharge, Manning's n, scouring depth, soil cohesion, and friction angle and enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes such as overtopping, surface erosion, mass failure, toe sliding and overturning. The framework was applied to Chiu-She, Feng-Chou, and Ke-Chuang Dikes on Dajia River. The results indicate that the toe sliding or overturning has the highest probability than other failure modes. Furthermore, the overall failure probability (integrate different failure modes) reaches 50% under 10-years return period flood which agrees with the historical failure data for the study reaches.
Research on Probability for Failures in VW Cars During Warranty and Post-Warranty Periods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dainius Luneckas
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The present paper examines the distribution of failures in „Volkswagen“ car during warranty and post-warranty periods. A statistical mathematical model has been developed upon collecting distribution data on car failures. Considering mileage rates, probabilities for a failure in the systems, including suspension and transmission, cooling, electrical, etc., have been determined during warranty and expiration periods. The obtained results of the conducted research have been compared. The reached conclusions have been formulated and summarized.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guikema, Seth D.
2007-01-01
Priors play an important role in the use of Bayesian methods in risk analysis, and using all available information to formulate an informative prior can lead to more accurate posterior inferences. This paper examines the practical implications of using five different methods for formulating an informative prior for a failure probability based on past data. These methods are the method of moments, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, maximum entropy estimation, starting from a non-informative 'pre-prior', and fitting a prior based on confidence/credible interval matching. The priors resulting from the use of these different methods are compared qualitatively, and the posteriors are compared quantitatively based on a number of different scenarios of observed data used to update the priors. The results show that the amount of information assumed in the prior makes a critical difference in the accuracy of the posterior inferences. For situations in which the data used to formulate the informative prior is an accurate reflection of the data that is later observed, the ML approach yields the minimum variance posterior. However, the maximum entropy approach is more robust to differences between the data used to formulate the prior and the observed data because it maximizes the uncertainty in the prior subject to the constraints imposed by the past data
Use of probabilistic methods for estimating failure probabilities and directing ISI-efforts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nilsson, F; Brickstad, B [University of Uppsala, (Switzerland)
1988-12-31
Some general aspects of the role of Non Destructive Testing (NDT) efforts on the resulting probability of core damage is discussed. A simple model for the estimation of the pipe break probability due to IGSCC is discussed. It is partly based on analytical procedures, partly on service experience from the Swedish BWR program. Estimates of the break probabilities indicate that further studies are urgently needed. It is found that the uncertainties about the initial crack configuration are large contributors to the total uncertainty. Some effects of the inservice inspection are studied and it is found that the detection probabilities influence the failure probabilities. (authors).
Estimation of component failure probability from masked binomial system testing data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tan Zhibin
2005-01-01
The component failure probability estimates from analysis of binomial system testing data are very useful because they reflect the operational failure probability of components in the field which is similar to the test environment. In practice, this type of analysis is often confounded by the problem of data masking: the status of tested components is unknown. Methods in considering this type of uncertainty are usually computationally intensive and not practical to solve the problem for complex systems. In this paper, we consider masked binomial system testing data and develop a probabilistic model to efficiently estimate component failure probabilities. In the model, all system tests are classified into test categories based on component coverage. Component coverage of test categories is modeled by a bipartite graph. Test category failure probabilities conditional on the status of covered components are defined. An EM algorithm to estimate component failure probabilities is developed based on a simple but powerful concept: equivalent failures and tests. By simulation we not only demonstrate the convergence and accuracy of the algorithm but also show that the probabilistic model is capable of analyzing systems in series, parallel and any other user defined structures. A case study illustrates an application in test case prioritization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Baosheng; Wang Dongqing; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing
2012-01-01
In order to estimate the functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative adaptive importance sampling methodology is presented. In the proposed methodology, information of variables is extracted with some pre-sampling of points in the failure region. An important sampling density is then constructed from the sample distribution in the failure region. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system as an example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters are considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure is estimated with the combination of the response surface method and adaptive importance sampling method. The numerical results demonstrate the high computed efficiency and excellent computed accuracy of the methodology compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strigini, Lorenzo; Wright, David
2014-01-01
When deciding whether to accept into service a new safety-critical system, or choosing between alternative systems, uncertainty about the parameters that affect future failure probability may be a major problem. This uncertainty can be extreme if there is the possibility of unknown design errors (e.g. in software), or wide variation between nominally equivalent components. We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on future reliability (survival probability), for systems required to have low risk of even only one failure or accident over the long term (e.g. their whole operational lifetime) and characterised by a single reliability parameter (e.g. probability of failure per demand – pfd). A complete mathematical treatment requires stating a probability distribution for any parameter with uncertain value. This is hard, so calculations are often performed using point estimates, like the expected value. We investigate conditions under which such simplified descriptions yield reliability values that are sure to be pessimistic (or optimistic) bounds for a prediction based on the true distribution. Two important observations are (i) using the expected value of the reliability parameter as its true value guarantees a pessimistic estimate of reliability, a useful property in most safety-related decisions; (ii) with a given expected pfd, broader distributions (in a formally defined meaning of “broader”), that is, systems that are a priori “less predictable”, lower the risk of failures or accidents. Result (i) justifies the simplification of using a mean in reliability modelling; we discuss within which scope this justification applies, and explore related scenarios, e.g. how things improve if we can test the system before operation. Result (ii) not only offers more flexible ways of bounding reliability predictions, but also has important, often counter-intuitive implications for decision making in various areas, like selection of components, project management
Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet
Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin
2017-11-01
Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.
Calculating failure probabilities for TRISO-coated fuel particles using an integral formulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, Gregory K.; Maki, John T.; Knudson, Darrell L.; Petti, David A.
2010-01-01
The fundamental design for a gas-cooled reactor relies on the safe behavior of the coated particle fuel. The coating layers surrounding the fuel kernels in these spherical particles, termed the TRISO coating, act as a pressure vessel that retains fission products. The quality of the fuel is reflected in the number of particle failures that occur during reactor operation, where failed particles become a source for fission products that can then diffuse through the fuel element. The failure probability for any batch of particles, which has traditionally been calculated using the Monte Carlo method, depends on statistical variations in design parameters and on variations in the strengths of coating layers among particles in the batch. An alternative approach to calculating failure probabilities is developed herein that uses direct numerical integration of a failure probability integral. Because this is a multiple integral where the statistically varying parameters become integration variables, a fast numerical integration approach is also developed. In sample cases analyzed involving multiple failure mechanisms, results from the integration methods agree closely with Monte Carlo results. Additionally, the fast integration approach, particularly, is shown to significantly improve efficiency of failure probability calculations. These integration methods have been implemented in the PARFUME fuel performance code along with the Monte Carlo method, where each serves to verify accuracy of the others.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caldarola, L.
1976-01-01
A method is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems. The method is based on a set of integral equations each one referring to a specific minimal cut set of the system. Each integral equation links the unavailability of a minimal cut set to its failure probability density distribution and to the probability that the minimal cut set is down at the time t under the condition that it was down at time t'(t'<=t). The limitations for the applicability of the method are also discussed. It has been concluded that the method is applicable if the process describing the failure of a minimal cut set is a 'delayed semi-regenerative process'. (Auth.)
Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress
Lambert, R. G.
1979-01-01
A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zio, E.; Pedroni, N.
2010-01-01
The quantitative reliability assessment of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) passive safety system of a nuclear power plant can be obtained by (i) Monte Carlo (MC) sampling the uncertainties of the system model and parameters, (ii) computing, for each sample, the system response by a mechanistic T-H code and (iii) comparing the system response with pre-established safety thresholds, which define the success or failure of the safety function. The computational effort involved can be prohibitive because of the large number of (typically long) T-H code simulations that must be performed (one for each sample) for the statistical estimation of the probability of success or failure. In this work, Line Sampling (LS) is adopted for efficient MC sampling. In the LS method, an 'important direction' pointing towards the failure domain of interest is determined and a number of conditional one-dimensional problems are solved along such direction; this allows for a significant reduction of the variance of the failure probability estimator, with respect, for example, to standard random sampling. Two issues are still open with respect to LS: first, the method relies on the determination of the 'important direction', which requires additional runs of the T-H code; second, although the method has been shown to improve the computational efficiency by reducing the variance of the failure probability estimator, no evidence has been given yet that accurate and precise failure probability estimates can be obtained with a number of samples reduced to below a few hundreds, which may be required in case of long-running models. The work presented in this paper addresses the first issue by (i) quantitatively comparing the efficiency of the methods proposed in the literature to determine the LS important direction; (ii) employing artificial neural network (ANN) regression models as fast-running surrogates of the original, long-running T-H code to reduce the computational cost associated to the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martinásková Magdalena
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The article examines the use of Asymptotic Sampling (AS for the estimation of failure probability. The AS algorithm requires samples of multidimensional Gaussian random vectors, which may be obtained by many alternative means that influence the performance of the AS method. Several reliability problems (test functions have been selected in order to test AS with various sampling schemes: (i Monte Carlo designs; (ii LHS designs optimized using the Periodic Audze-Eglājs (PAE criterion; (iii designs prepared using Sobol’ sequences. All results are compared with the exact failure probability value.
Evaluation and comparison of estimation methods for failure rates and probabilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vaurio, Jussi K. [Fortum Power and Heat Oy, P.O. Box 23, 07901 Loviisa (Finland)]. E-mail: jussi.vaurio@fortum.com; Jaenkaelae, Kalle E. [Fortum Nuclear Services, P.O. Box 10, 00048 Fortum (Finland)
2006-02-01
An updated parametric robust empirical Bayes (PREB) estimation methodology is presented as an alternative to several two-stage Bayesian methods used to assimilate failure data from multiple units or plants. PREB is based on prior-moment matching and avoids multi-dimensional numerical integrations. The PREB method is presented for failure-truncated and time-truncated data. Erlangian and Poisson likelihoods with gamma prior are used for failure rate estimation, and Binomial data with beta prior are used for failure probability per demand estimation. Combined models and assessment uncertainties are accounted for. One objective is to compare several methods with numerical examples and show that PREB works as well if not better than the alternative more complex methods, especially in demanding problems of small samples, identical data and zero failures. False claims and misconceptions are straightened out, and practical applications in risk studies are presented.
Shiryaev, A N
1996-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lühr, Armin; Löck, Steffen; Jakobi, Annika
2017-01-01
PURPOSE: Objectives of this work are (1) to derive a general clinically relevant approach to model tumor control probability (TCP) for spatially variable risk of failure and (2) to demonstrate its applicability by estimating TCP for patients planned for photon and proton irradiation. METHODS AND ...
Input-profile-based software failure probability quantification for safety signal generation systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Hyun Gook; Lim, Ho Gon; Lee, Ho Jung; Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol
2009-01-01
The approaches for software failure probability estimation are mainly based on the results of testing. Test cases represent the inputs, which are encountered in an actual use. The test inputs for the safety-critical application such as a reactor protection system (RPS) of a nuclear power plant are the inputs which cause the activation of protective action such as a reactor trip. A digital system treats inputs from instrumentation sensors as discrete digital values by using an analog-to-digital converter. Input profile must be determined in consideration of these characteristics for effective software failure probability quantification. Another important characteristic of software testing is that we do not have to repeat the test for the same input value since the software response is deterministic for each specific digital input. With these considerations, we propose an effective software testing method for quantifying the failure probability. As an example application, the input profile of the digital RPS is developed based on the typical plant data. The proposed method in this study is expected to provide a simple but realistic mean to quantify the software failure probability based on input profile and system dynamics.
Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods
Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed
2018-04-01
This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.
Vivó-Truyols, G.; Janssen, H.-G.
2010-01-01
The watershed algorithm is the most common method used for peak detection and integration In two-dimensional chromatography However, the retention time variability in the second dimension may render the algorithm to fail A study calculating the probabilities of failure of the watershed algorithm was
Modelling the impact of creep on the probability of failure of a solid oxidefuel cell stack
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Greco, Fabio; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Nakajo, Arata
2014-01-01
In solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology a major challenge lies in balancing thermal stresses from an inevitable thermal field. The cells are known to creep, changing over time the stress field. The main objective of this study was to assess the influence of creep on the failure probability of ...
Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates
Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.
2013-01-01
The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.
Approximations to the Probability of Failure in Random Vibration by Integral Equation Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
Close approximations to the first passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before...... passage probability density. The results of the theory agree well with simulation results for narrow banded processes dominated by a single frequency, as well as for bimodal processes with 2 dominating frequencies in the structural response....... outcrossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval, and hence for the first...
Estimation of probability of failure for damage-tolerant aerospace structures
Halbert, Keith
The majority of aircraft structures are designed to be damage-tolerant such that safe operation can continue in the presence of minor damage. It is necessary to schedule inspections so that minor damage can be found and repaired. It is generally not possible to perform structural inspections prior to every flight. The scheduling is traditionally accomplished through a deterministic set of methods referred to as Damage Tolerance Analysis (DTA). DTA has proven to produce safe aircraft but does not provide estimates of the probability of failure of future flights or the probability of repair of future inspections. Without these estimates maintenance costs cannot be accurately predicted. Also, estimation of failure probabilities is now a regulatory requirement for some aircraft. The set of methods concerned with the probabilistic formulation of this problem are collectively referred to as Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis (PDTA). The goal of PDTA is to control the failure probability while holding maintenance costs to a reasonable level. This work focuses specifically on PDTA for fatigue cracking of metallic aircraft structures. The growth of a crack (or cracks) must be modeled using all available data and engineering knowledge. The length of a crack can be assessed only indirectly through evidence such as non-destructive inspection results, failures or lack of failures, and the observed severity of usage of the structure. The current set of industry PDTA tools are lacking in several ways: they may in some cases yield poor estimates of failure probabilities, they cannot realistically represent the variety of possible failure and maintenance scenarios, and they do not allow for model updates which incorporate observed evidence. A PDTA modeling methodology must be flexible enough to estimate accurately the failure and repair probabilities under a variety of maintenance scenarios, and be capable of incorporating observed evidence as it becomes available. This
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duffy, Stephen [Cleveland State Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States)
2013-09-09
This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duffy, Stephen
2013-01-01
This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.
Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vaurio, Jussi K.
2005-01-01
Simultaneous failures of multiple components due to common causes at random times are modelled by constant multiple-failure rates. A procedure is described for quantification of common cause failure (CCF) basic event probabilities for system models using plant-specific and multiple-plant failure-event data. Methodology is presented for estimating CCF-rates from event data contaminated with assessment uncertainties. Generalised impact vectors determine the moments for the rates of individual systems or plants. These moments determine the effective numbers of events and observation times to be input to a Bayesian formalism to obtain plant-specific posterior CCF-rates. The rates are used to determine plant-specific common cause event probabilities for the basic events of explicit fault tree models depending on test intervals, test schedules and repair policies. Three methods are presented to determine these probabilities such that the correct time-average system unavailability can be obtained with single fault tree quantification. Recommended numerical values are given and examples illustrate different aspects of the methodology
The probability of containment failure by steam explosion in a PWR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Briggs, A.J.
1983-12-01
The study of the risk associated with operation of a PWR includes assessment of severe accidents in which a combination of faults results in melting of the core. Probabilistic methods are used in such assessment, hence it is necessary to estimate the probability of key events. One such event is the occurrence of a large steam explosion when molten core debris slumps into the base of the reactor vessel. This report considers recent information, and recommends an upper limit to the range of probability values for containment failure by steam explosion for risk assessment for a plant such as the proposed Sizewell B station. (U.K.)
Failure Probability Calculation Method Using Kriging Metamodel-based Importance Sampling Method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Seunggyu [Korea Aerospace Research Institue, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Hoon [Chungnam Nat’l Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2017-05-15
The kernel density was determined based on sampling points obtained in a Markov chain simulation and was assumed to be an important sampling function. A Kriging metamodel was constructed in more detail in the vicinity of a limit state. The failure probability was calculated based on importance sampling, which was performed for the Kriging metamodel. A pre-existing method was modified to obtain more sampling points for a kernel density in the vicinity of a limit state. A stable numerical method was proposed to find a parameter of the kernel density. To assess the completeness of the Kriging metamodel, the possibility of changes in the calculated failure probability due to the uncertainty of the Kriging metamodel was calculated.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mitchell, Scott A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ebeida, Mohamed Salah [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rushdi, Ahmad A. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Abdelkader, Ahmad [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
2015-09-01
This SAND report summarizes our work on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project titled "Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry" which was project #165617 and proposal #13-0144. This report merely summarizes our work. Those interested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results, and contact the report authors for the status of the software and follow-on projects.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simonen, F.A.; Garnich, M.R.; Simonen, E.P.; Bian, S.H.; Nomura, K.K.; Anderson, W.E.; Pedersen, L.T.
1986-04-01
A fracture mechanics model was developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to predict the behavior of a reactor pressure vessel following a through-wall crack that occurs during a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) event. This study, which contributed to a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) program to study PTS risk, was coordinated with the Integrated Pressurized Thermal Shock (IPTS) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The PNL fracture mechanics model uses the critical transients and probabilities of through-wall cracks from the IPTS Program. The PNL model predicts the arrest, reinitiation, and direction of crack growth for a postulated through-wall crack and thereby predicts the mode of vessel failure. A Monte-Carlo type of computer code was written to predict the probabilities of the alternative failure modes. This code treats the fracture mechanics properties of the various welds and plates of a vessel as random variables. Plant-specific calculations were performed for the Oconee-1, Calvert Cliffs-1, and H.B. Robinson-2 reactor pressure vessels for the conditions of postulated transients. The model predicted that 50% or more of the through-wall axial cracks will turn to follow a circumferential weld. The predicted failure mode is a complete circumferential fracture of the vessel, which results in a potential vertically directed missile consisting of the upper head assembly. Missile arrest calculations for the three nuclear plants predict that such vertical missiles, as well as all potential horizontally directed fragmentation type missiles, will be confined to the vessel enclosre cavity. The PNL failure mode model is recommended for use in future evaluations of other plants, to determine the failure modes that are most probable for postulated PTS events
Long-Term Fatigue and Its Probability of Failure Applied to Dental Implants
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
María Prados-Privado
2016-01-01
Full Text Available It is well known that dental implants have a high success rate but even so, there are a lot of factors that can cause dental implants failure. Fatigue is very sensitive to many variables involved in this phenomenon. This paper takes a close look at fatigue analysis and explains a new method to study fatigue from a probabilistic point of view, based on a cumulative damage model and probabilistic finite elements, with the goal of obtaining the expected life and the probability of failure. Two different dental implants were analysed. The model simulated a load of 178 N applied with an angle of 0°, 15°, and 20° and a force of 489 N with the same angles. Von Mises stress distribution was evaluated and once the methodology proposed here was used, the statistic of the fatigue life and the probability cumulative function were obtained. This function allows us to relate each cycle life with its probability of failure. Cylindrical implant has a worst behaviour under the same loading force compared to the conical implant analysed here. Methodology employed in the present study provides very accuracy results because all possible uncertainties have been taken in mind from the beginning.
Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate
Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.
2017-12-01
Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.
Failure probability analyses for PWSCC in Ni-based alloy welds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Udagawa, Makoto; Katsuyama, Jinya; Onizawa, Kunio; Li, Yinsheng
2015-01-01
A number of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) in pressurized water reactors and Ni-based alloy stress corrosion cracking (NiSCC) in boiling water reactors have been detected around Ni-based alloy welds. The causes of crack initiation and growth due to stress corrosion cracking include weld residual stress, operating stress, the materials, and the environment. We have developed the analysis code PASCAL-NP for calculating the failure probability and assessment of the structural integrity of cracked components on the basis of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) considering PWSCC and NiSCC. This PFM analysis code has functions for calculating the incubation time of PWSCC and NiSCC crack initiation, evaluation of crack growth behavior considering certain crack location and orientation patterns, and evaluation of failure behavior near Ni-based alloy welds due to PWSCC and NiSCC in a probabilistic manner. Herein, actual plants affected by PWSCC have been analyzed using PASCAL-NP. Failure probabilities calculated by PASCAL-NP are in reasonable agreement with the detection data. Furthermore, useful knowledge related to leakage due to PWSCC was obtained through parametric studies using this code
FAILPROB-A Computer Program to Compute the Probability of Failure of a Brittle Component; TOPICAL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
WELLMAN, GERALD W.
2002-01-01
FAILPROB is a computer program that applies the Weibull statistics characteristic of brittle failure of a material along with the stress field resulting from a finite element analysis to determine the probability of failure of a component. FAILPROB uses the statistical techniques for fast fracture prediction (but not the coding) from the N.A.S.A. - CARES/life ceramic reliability package. FAILPROB provides the analyst at Sandia with a more convenient tool than CARES/life because it is designed to behave in the tradition of structural analysis post-processing software such as ALGEBRA, in which the standard finite element database format EXODUS II is both read and written. This maintains compatibility with the entire SEACAS suite of post-processing software. A new technique to deal with the high local stresses computed for structures with singularities such as glass-to-metal seals and ceramic-to-metal braze joints is proposed and implemented. This technique provides failure probability computation that is insensitive to the finite element mesh employed in the underlying stress analysis. Included in this report are a brief discussion of the computational algorithms employed, user instructions, and example problems that both demonstrate the operation of FAILPROB and provide a starting point for verification and validation
Fishnet model for failure probability tail of nacre-like imbricated lamellar materials
Luo, Wen; Bažant, Zdeněk P.
2017-12-01
Nacre, the iridescent material of the shells of pearl oysters and abalone, consists mostly of aragonite (a form of CaCO3), a brittle constituent of relatively low strength (≈10 MPa). Yet it has astonishing mean tensile strength (≈150 MPa) and fracture energy (≈350 to 1,240 J/m2). The reasons have recently become well understood: (i) the nanoscale thickness (≈300 nm) of nacre's building blocks, the aragonite lamellae (or platelets), and (ii) the imbricated, or staggered, arrangement of these lamellea, bound by biopolymer layers only ≈25 nm thick, occupying engineering applications, however, the failure probability of ≤10-6 is generally required. To guarantee it, the type of probability density function (pdf) of strength, including its tail, must be determined. This objective, not pursued previously, is hardly achievable by experiments alone, since >10^8 tests of specimens would be needed. Here we outline a statistical model of strength that resembles a fishnet pulled diagonally, captures the tail of pdf of strength and, importantly, allows analytical safety assessments of nacreous materials. The analysis shows that, in terms of safety, the imbricated lamellar structure provides a major additional advantage—˜10% strength increase at tail failure probability 10^-6 and a 1 to 2 orders of magnitude tail probability decrease at fixed stress. Another advantage is that a high scatter of microstructure properties diminishes the strength difference between the mean and the probability tail, compared with the weakest link model. These advantages of nacre-like materials are here justified analytically and supported by millions of Monte Carlo simulations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hwang, Meejeong; Kang, Dae Il
2011-01-01
Highlights: ► This paper presents a method to estimate the common cause failure probabilities on the common cause component group with mixed testing schemes. ► The CCF probabilities are dependent on the testing schemes such as staggered testing or non-staggered testing. ► There are many CCCGs with specific mixed testing schemes in real plant operation. ► Therefore, a general formula which is applicable to both alternate periodic testing scheme and train level mixed testing scheme was derived. - Abstract: This paper presents a method to estimate the common cause failure (CCF) probabilities on the common cause component group (CCCG) with mixed testing schemes such as the train level mixed testing scheme or the alternate periodic testing scheme. In the train level mixed testing scheme, the components are tested in a non-staggered way within the same train, but the components are tested in a staggered way between the trains. The alternate periodic testing scheme indicates that all components in the same CCCG are tested in a non-staggered way during the planned maintenance period, but they are tested in a staggered way during normal plant operation. Since the CCF probabilities are dependent on the testing schemes such as staggered testing or non-staggered testing, CCF estimators have two kinds of formulas in accordance with the testing schemes. Thus, there are general formulas to estimate the CCF probability on the staggered testing scheme and non-staggered testing scheme. However, in real plant operation, there are many CCCGs with specific mixed testing schemes. Recently, Barros () and Kang () proposed a CCF factor estimation method to reflect the alternate periodic testing scheme and the train level mixed testing scheme. In this paper, a general formula which is applicable to both the alternate periodic testing scheme and the train level mixed testing scheme was derived.
Probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greenfield, M.A.; Sargent, T.J.; Stanford Univ., CA
1998-01-01
In its most recent report on the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the annual failure rate is calculated to be 1.3E(-7)(1/yr), rounded off from 1.32E(-7). A calculation by the Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) produces a result that is about 4% higher, namely 1.37E(-7)(1/yr). The difference is due to a minor error in the US Department of Energy (DOE) calculations in the Westinghouse 1996 report. WIPP's hoist safety relies on a braking system consisting of a number of components including two crucial valves. The failure rate of the system needs to be recalculated periodically to accommodate new information on component failure, changes in maintenance and inspection schedules, occasional incidents such as a hoist traveling out-of-control, either up or down, and changes in the design of the brake system. This report examines DOE's last two reports on the redesigned waste hoist system. In its calculations, the DOE has accepted one EEG recommendation and is using more current information about the component failures rates, the Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data (NPRD). However, the DOE calculations fail to include the data uncertainties which are described in detail in the NPRD reports. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission recommended that a system evaluation include mean estimates of component failure rates and take into account the potential uncertainties that exist so that an estimate can be made on the confidence level to be ascribed to the quantitative results. EEG has made this suggestion previously and the DOE has indicated why it does not accept the NRC recommendation. Hence, this EEG report illustrates the importance of including data uncertainty using a simple statistical example
Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Jin, Yaohui; Sun, Weiqiang; Hu, Weisheng
2010-12-01
A cost-effective and service-differentiated provisioning strategy is very desirable to service providers so that they can offer users satisfactory services, while optimizing network resource allocation. Providing differentiated protection services to connections for surviving link failure has been extensively studied in recent years. However, the differentiated protection services for workflow-based applications, which consist of many interdependent tasks, have scarcely been studied. This paper investigates the problem of providing differentiated services for workflow-based applications in optical grid. In this paper, we develop three differentiated protection services provisioning strategies which can provide security level guarantee and network-resource optimization for workflow-based applications. The simulation demonstrates that these heuristic algorithms provide protection cost-effectively while satisfying the applications' failure probability requirements.
Probability of Failure Analysis Standards and Guidelines for Expendable Launch Vehicles
Wilde, Paul D.; Morse, Elisabeth L.; Rosati, Paul; Cather, Corey
2013-09-01
Recognizing the central importance of probability of failure estimates to ensuring public safety for launches, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and U.S. Air Force (USAF), through the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG), developed a guide for conducting valid probability of failure (POF) analyses for expendable launch vehicles (ELV), with an emphasis on POF analysis for new ELVs. A probability of failure analysis for an ELV produces estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of potentially hazardous events, which are critical inputs to launch risk analysis of debris, toxic, or explosive hazards. This guide is intended to document a framework for POF analyses commonly accepted in the US, and should be useful to anyone who performs or evaluates launch risk analyses for new ELVs. The CSWG guidelines provide performance standards and definitions of key terms, and are being revised to address allocation to flight times and vehicle response modes. The POF performance standard allows a launch operator to employ alternative, potentially innovative methodologies so long as the results satisfy the performance standard. Current POF analysis practice at US ranges includes multiple methodologies described in the guidelines as accepted methods, but not necessarily the only methods available to demonstrate compliance with the performance standard. The guidelines include illustrative examples for each POF analysis method, which are intended to illustrate an acceptable level of fidelity for ELV POF analyses used to ensure public safety. The focus is on providing guiding principles rather than "recipe lists." Independent reviews of these guidelines were performed to assess their logic, completeness, accuracy, self- consistency, consistency with risk analysis practices, use of available information, and ease of applicability. The independent reviews confirmed the
Failures probability calculation of the energy supply of the Angra-1 reactor rods assembly
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borba, P.R.
1978-01-01
This work analyses the electric power system of the Angra I PWR plant. It is demonstrated that this system is closely coupled with the safety engineering features, which are the equipments provided to prevent, limit, or mitigate the release of radioactive material and to permit the safe reactor shutdown. Event trees are used to analyse the operation of those systems which can lead to the release of radioactivity following a specified initial event. The fault trees technique is used to calculate the failure probability of the on-site electric power system [pt
Temperature Analysis and Failure Probability of the Fuel Element in HTR-PM
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang Lin; Liu Bing; Tang Chunhe
2014-01-01
Spherical fuel element is applied in the 200-MW High Temperature Reactor-Pebble-bed Modular (HTR-PM). Each spherical fuel element contains approximately 12,000 coated fuel particles in the inner graphite matrix with a diameter of 50mm to form the fuel zone, while the outer shell with a thickness of 5mm is a fuel-free zone made up of the same graphite material. Under high burnup irradiation, the temperature of fuel element rises and the stress will result in the damage of fuel element. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temperature of fuel element and to discuss the stress and failure probability. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zahedi Zahedi
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses integrated model of batch production scheduling and machine maintenance scheduling. Batch production scheduling uses minimize total actual flow time criteria and machine maintenance scheduling uses the probability of machine failure based on Weibull distribution. The model assumed no nonconforming parts in a planning horizon. The model shows an increase in the number of the batch (length of production run up to a certain limit will minimize the total actual flow time. Meanwhile, an increase in the length of production run will implicate an increase in the number of PM. An example was given to show how the model and algorithm work.
Probability of Accurate Heart Failure Diagnosis and the Implications for Hospital Readmissions.
Carey, Sandra A; Bass, Kyle; Saracino, Giovanna; East, Cara A; Felius, Joost; Grayburn, Paul A; Vallabhan, Ravi C; Hall, Shelley A
2017-04-01
Heart failure (HF) is a complex syndrome with inherent diagnostic challenges. We studied the scope of possibly inaccurately documented HF in a large health care system among patients assigned a primary diagnosis of HF at discharge. Through a retrospective record review and a classification schema developed from published guidelines, we assessed the probability of the documented HF diagnosis being accurate and determined factors associated with HF-related and non-HF-related hospital readmissions. An arbitration committee of 3 experts reviewed a subset of records to corroborate the results. We assigned a low probability of accurate diagnosis to 133 (19%) of the 712 patients. A subset of patients were also reviewed by an expert panel, which concluded that 13% to 35% of patients probably did not have HF (inter-rater agreement, kappa = 0.35). Low-probability HF was predictive of being readmitted more frequently for non-HF causes (p = 0.018), as well as documented arrhythmias (p = 0.023), and age >60 years (p = 0.006). Documented sleep apnea (p = 0.035), percutaneous coronary intervention (p = 0.006), non-white race (p = 0.047), and B-type natriuretic peptide >400 pg/ml (p = 0.007) were determined to be predictive of HF readmissions in this cohort. In conclusion, approximately 1 in 5 patients documented to have HF were found to have a low probability of actually having it. Moreover, the determination of low-probability HF was twice as likely to result in readmission for non-HF causes and, thus, should be considered a determinant for all-cause readmissions in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Failure probability assessment of wall-thinned nuclear pipes using probabilistic fracture mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Sang-Min; Chang, Yoon-Suk; Choi, Jae-Boong; Kim, Young-Jin
2006-01-01
The integrity of nuclear piping system has to be maintained during operation. In order to maintain the integrity, reliable assessment procedures including fracture mechanics analysis, etc., are required. Up to now, this has been performed using conventional deterministic approaches even though there are many uncertainties to hinder a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic approaches are considered as an appropriate method for piping system evaluation. The objectives of this paper are to estimate the failure probabilities of wall-thinned pipes in nuclear secondary systems and to propose limited operating conditions under different types of loadings. To do this, a probabilistic assessment program using reliability index and simulation techniques was developed and applied to evaluate failure probabilities of wall-thinned pipes subjected to internal pressure, bending moment and combined loading of them. The sensitivity analysis results as well as prototypal integrity assessment results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic assessment program, necessity of practical evaluation reflecting combined loading condition and operation considering limited condition
Statistical analysis on failure-to-open/close probability of motor-operated valve in sodium system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kurisaka, Kenichi
1998-08-01
The objective of this work is to develop basic data for examination on efficiency of preventive maintenance and actuation test from the standpoint of failure probability. This work consists of a statistical trend analysis of valve failure probability in a failure-to-open/close mode on time since installation and time since last open/close action, based on the field data of operating- and failure-experience. In this work, the terms both dependent and independent on time were considered in the failure probability. The linear aging model was modified and applied to the first term. In this model there are two terms with both failure rates in proportion to time since installation and to time since last open/close-demand. Because of sufficient statistical population, motor-operated valves (MOV's) in sodium system were selected to be analyzed from the CORDS database which contains operating data and failure data of components in the fast reactors and sodium test facilities. According to these data, the functional parameters were statistically estimated to quantify the valve failure probability in a failure-to-open/close mode, with consideration of uncertainty. (J.P.N.)
Flexural strength and the probability of failure of cold isostatic pressed zirconia core ceramics.
Siarampi, Eleni; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Papadopoulou, Lambrini; Kantiranis, Nikolaos; Zorba, Triantafillia; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M; Koidis, Petros
2012-08-01
The flexural strength of zirconia core ceramics must predictably withstand the high stresses developed during oral function. The in-depth interpretation of strength parameters and the probability of failure during clinical performance could assist the clinician in selecting the optimum materials while planning treatment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the flexural strength based on survival probability and Weibull statistical analysis of 2 zirconia cores for ceramic restorations. Twenty bar-shaped specimens were milled from 2 core ceramics, IPS e.max ZirCAD and Wieland ZENO Zr, and were loaded until fracture according to ISO 6872 (3-point bending test). An independent samples t test was used to assess significant differences of fracture strength (α=.05). Weibull statistical analysis of the flexural strength data provided 2 parameter estimates: Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ(0)). The fractured surfaces of the specimens were evaluated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). The investigation of the crystallographic state of the materials was performed with x-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Higher mean flexural strength (Plines zones). Both groups primarily sustained the tetragonal phase of zirconia and a negligible amount of the monoclinic phase. Although both zirconia ceramics presented similar fractographic and crystallographic properties, the higher flexural strength of WZ ceramics was associated with a lower m and more voids in their microstructure. These findings suggest a greater scattering of strength values and a flaw distribution that are expected to increase failure probability. Copyright © 2012 The Editorial Council of the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimation of the common cause failure probabilities of the components under mixed testing schemes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong; Han, Sang Hoon
2009-01-01
For the case where trains or channels of standby safety systems consisting of more than two redundant components are tested in a staggered manner, the standby safety components within a train can be tested simultaneously or consecutively. In this case, mixed testing schemes, staggered and non-staggered testing schemes, are used for testing the components. Approximate formulas, based on the basic parameter method, were developed for the estimation of the common cause failure (CCF) probabilities of the components under mixed testing schemes. The developed formulas were applied to the four redundant check valves of the auxiliary feed water system as a demonstration study for their appropriateness. For a comparison, we estimated the CCF probabilities of the four redundant check valves for the mixed, staggered, and non-staggered testing schemes. The CCF probabilities of the four redundant check valves for the mixed testing schemes were estimated to be higher than those for the staggered testing scheme, and lower than those for the non-staggered testing scheme.
Shih, Ann T.; Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.
2010-01-01
Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project
Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.
2017-08-01
The paper dwells upon urgent issues of evaluating impact of actions conducted by complex technological systems operators on their safe operation considering application of condition monitoring systems for elements and sub-systems of petrochemical production facilities. The main task for the research is to distinguish factors and criteria of monitoring system properties description, which would allow to evaluate impact of errors made by personnel on operation of real-time condition monitoring and diagnostic systems for machinery of petrochemical facilities, and find and objective criteria for monitoring system class, considering a human factor. On the basis of real-time condition monitoring concepts of sudden failure skipping risk, static and dynamic error, monitoring systems, one may solve a task of evaluation of impact that personnel's qualification has on monitoring system operation in terms of error in personnel or operators' actions while receiving information from monitoring systems and operating a technological system. Operator is considered as a part of the technological system. Although, personnel's behavior is usually a combination of the following parameters: input signal - information perceiving, reaction - decision making, response - decision implementing. Based on several researches on behavior of nuclear powers station operators in USA, Italy and other countries, as well as on researches conducted by Russian scientists, required data on operator's reliability were selected for analysis of operator's behavior at technological facilities diagnostics and monitoring systems. The calculations revealed that for the monitoring system selected as an example, the failure skipping risk for the set values of static (less than 0.01) and dynamic (less than 0.001) errors considering all related factors of data on reliability of information perception, decision-making, and reaction fulfilled is 0.037, in case when all the facilities and error probability are under
The relative impact of sizing errors on steam generator tube failure probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cizelj, L.; Dvorsek, T.
1998-01-01
The Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking (ODSCC) at tube support plates is currently the major degradation mechanism affecting the steam generator tubes made of Inconel 600. This caused development and licensing of degradation specific maintenance approaches, which addressed two main failure modes of the degraded piping: tube rupture; and excessive leakage through degraded tubes. A methodology aiming at assessing the efficiency of a given set of possible maintenance approaches has already been proposed by the authors. It pointed out better performance of the degradation specific over generic approaches in (1) lower probability of single and multiple steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), (2) lower estimated accidental leak rates and (3) less tubes plugged. A sensitivity analysis was also performed pointing out the relative contributions of uncertain input parameters to the tube rupture probabilities. The dominant contribution was assigned to the uncertainties inherent to the regression models used to correlate the defect size and tube burst pressure. The uncertainties, which can be estimated from the in-service inspections, are further analysed in this paper. The defect growth was found to have significant and to some extent unrealistic impact on the probability of single tube rupture. Since the defect growth estimates were based on the past inspection records they strongly depend on the sizing errors. Therefore, an attempt was made to filter out the sizing errors and to arrive at more realistic estimates of the defect growth. The impact of different assumptions regarding sizing errors on the tube rupture probability was studied using a realistic numerical example. The data used is obtained from a series of inspection results from Krsko NPP with 2 Westinghouse D-4 steam generators. The results obtained are considered useful in safety assessment and maintenance of affected steam generators. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdalla Ahmed Abdel-Ghaly
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This paper suggests the use of the conditional probability integral transformation (CPIT method as a goodness of fit (GOF technique in the field of accelerated life testing (ALT, specifically for validating the underlying distributional assumption in accelerated failure time (AFT model. The method is based on transforming the data into independent and identically distributed (i.i.d Uniform (0, 1 random variables and then applying the modified Watson statistic to test the uniformity of the transformed random variables. This technique is used to validate each of the exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions' assumptions in AFT model under constant stress and complete sampling. The performance of the CPIT method is investigated via a simulation study. It is concluded that this method performs well in case of exponential and lognormal distributions. Finally, a real life example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed procedure.
The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in zion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pilch, M.M.; Yan, H.; Theofanous, T.G.
1994-01-01
This report is the first step in the resolution of the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) issue for the Zion Nuclear Power Plant using the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM). This report includes the definition of a probabilistic framework that decomposes the DCH problem into three probability density functions that reflect the most uncertain initial conditions (UO 2 mass, zirconium oxidation fraction, and steel mass). Uncertainties in the initial conditions are significant, but the quantification approach is based on establishing reasonable bounds that are not unnecessarily conservative. To this end, the authors also make use of the ROAAM ideas of enveloping scenarios and open-quotes splinteringclose quotes. Two casual relations (CRs) are used in this framework: CR1 is a model that calculates the peak pressure in the containment as a function of the initial conditions, and CR2 is a model that returns the frequency of containment failure as a function of pressure within the containment. Uncertainty in CR1 is accounted for by the use of two independently developed phenomenological models, the Convection Limited Containment Heating (CLCH) model and the Two-Cell Equilibrium (TCE) model, and by probabilistically distributing the key parameter in both, which is the ratio of the melt entrainment time to the system blowdown time constant. The two phenomenological models have been compared with an extensive data base including recent integral simulations at two different physical scales (1/10th scale in the Surtsey facility at Sandia National Laboratories and 1/40th scale in the COREXIT facility at Argonne National Laboratory). The loads predicted by these models were significantly lower than those from previous parametric calculations. The containment load distributions do not intersect the containment strength curve in any significant way, resulting in containment failure probabilities less than 10 -3 for all scenarios considered
The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pilch, M.M.; Yan, H.; Theofanous, T.G.
1994-12-01
This report is the first step in the resolution of the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) issue for the Zion Nuclear Power Plant using the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM). This report includes the definition of a probabilistic framework that decomposes the DCH problem into three probability density functions that reflect the most uncertain initial conditions (UO 2 mass, zirconium oxidation fraction, and steel mass). Uncertainties in the initial conditions are significant, but our quantification approach is based on establishing reasonable bounds that are not unnecessarily conservative. To this end, we also make use of the ROAAM ideas of enveloping scenarios and ''splintering.'' Two causal relations (CRs) are used in this framework: CR1 is a model that calculates the peak pressure in the containment as a function of the initial conditions, and CR2 is a model that returns the frequency of containment failure as a function of pressure within the containment. Uncertainty in CR1 is accounted for by the use of two independently developed phenomenological models, the Convection Limited Containment Heating (CLCH) model and the Two-Cell Equilibrium (TCE) model, and by probabilistically distributing the key parameter in both, which is the ratio of the melt entrainment time to the system blowdown time constant. The two phenomenological models have been compared with an extensive database including recent integral simulations at two different physical scales. The containment load distributions do not intersect the containment strength (fragility) curve in any significant way, resulting in containment failure probabilities less than 10 -3 for all scenarios considered. Sensitivity analyses did not show any areas of large sensitivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Garschagen
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do – or do not – play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.
Garschagen, Matthias; Sandholz, Simone
2018-04-01
Increased attention has lately been given to the resilience of critical infrastructure in the context of natural hazards and disasters. The major focus therein is on the sensitivity of critical infrastructure technologies and their management contingencies. However, strikingly little attention has been given to assessing and mitigating social vulnerabilities towards the failure of critical infrastructure and to the development, design and implementation of minimum supply standards in situations of major infrastructure failure. Addressing this gap and contributing to a more integrative perspective on critical infrastructure resilience is the objective of this paper. It asks which role social vulnerability assessments and minimum supply considerations can, should and do - or do not - play for the management and governance of critical infrastructure failure. In its first part, the paper provides a structured review on achievements and remaining gaps in the management of critical infrastructure and the understanding of social vulnerabilities towards disaster-related infrastructure failures. Special attention is given to the current state of minimum supply concepts with a regional focus on policies in Germany and the EU. In its second part, the paper then responds to the identified gaps by developing a heuristic model on the linkages of critical infrastructure management, social vulnerability and minimum supply. This framework helps to inform a vision of a future research agenda, which is presented in the paper's third part. Overall, the analysis suggests that the assessment of socially differentiated vulnerabilities towards critical infrastructure failure needs to be undertaken more stringently to inform the scientifically and politically difficult debate about minimum supply standards and the shared responsibilities for securing them.
A Rare Case of Acute Renal Failure Secondary to Rhabdomyolysis Probably Induced by Donepezil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Osman Zikrullah Sahin
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction. Acute renal failure (ARF develops in 33% of the patients with rhabdomyolysis. The main etiologic factors are alcoholism, trauma, exercise overexertion, and drugs. In this report we present a rare case of ARF secondary to probably donepezil-induced rhabdomyolysis. Case Presentation. An 84-year-old male patient was admitted to the emergency department with a complaint of generalized weakness and reduced consciousness for two days. He had a history of Alzheimer’s disease for one year and he had taken donepezil 5 mg daily for two months. The patient’s physical examination revealed apathy, loss of cooperation, and decreased muscle strength. Laboratory studies revealed the following: urea: 128 mg/dL; Creatinine 6.06 mg/dL; creatine kinase: 3613 mg/dL. Donepezil was discontinued and the patient’s renal function tests improved gradually. Conclusion. Rhabdomyolysis-induced acute renal failure may develop secondary to donepezil therapy.
de Bruijn, Renée; Dabekaussen, Willem; Hijma, Marc; Wiersma, Ane; Abspoel-Bukman, Linda; Boeije, Remco; Courage, Wim; van der Geest, Johan; Hamburg, Marc; Harmsma, Edwin; Helmholt, Kristian; van den Heuvel, Frank; Kruse, Henk; Langius, Erik; Lazovik, Elena
2017-04-01
Due to heterogeneity of the subsurface in the delta environment of the Netherlands, differential subsidence over short distances results in tension and subsequent wear of subsurface infrastructure, such as water and gas pipelines. Due to uncertainties in the build-up of the subsurface, however, it is unknown where this problem is the most prominent. This is a problem for asset managers deciding when a pipeline needs replacement: damaged pipelines endanger security of supply and pose a significant threat to safety, yet premature replacement raises needless expenses. In both cases, costs - financial or other - are high. Therefore, an interdisciplinary research team of geotechnicians, geologists and Big Data engineers from research institutes TNO, Deltares and SkyGeo developed a stochastic model to predict differential subsidence and the probability of consequent pipeline failure on a (sub-)street level. In this project pipeline data from company databases is combined with a stochastic geological model and information on (historical) groundwater levels and overburden material. Probability of pipeline failure is modelled by a coupling with a subsidence model and two separate models on pipeline behaviour under stress, using a probabilistic approach. The total length of pipelines (approx. 200.000 km operational in the Netherlands) and the complexity of the model chain that is needed to calculate a chance of failure, results in large computational challenges, as it requires massive evaluation of possible scenarios to reach the required level of confidence. To cope with this, a scalable computational infrastructure has been developed, composing a model workflow in which components have a heterogeneous technological basis. Three pilot areas covering an urban, a rural and a mixed environment, characterised by different groundwater-management strategies and different overburden histories, are used to evaluate the differences in subsidence and uncertainties that come with
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cao Tianjie; Zhou Zegong
1993-01-01
This paper presents some methods to assess the fracture failure probability of a spherical tank. These methods convert the assessment of the fracture failure probability into the calculation of the moment of cracks and a one-dimensional integral. In the paper, we first derive series' formulae to calculation the moments of cracks on the occasion of the crack fatigue growth and the moments of crack opening displacements according to JWES-2805 code. We then use the first n moments of crack opening displacements and a few orthogonal polynomials to compose the probability density function of the crack opening displacement. Lastly, the fracture failure probability is obtained according to the interference theory. An example proves that these methods are simpler, quicker, and more accurate. At the same time, these methods avoid the disadvantage of Edgeworth's series method. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daugherty, W.L.
1988-01-01
The design basis accident for the Savannah River Production Reactors is the abrupt double-ended guillotine break (DEGB) of a large process water pipe. This accident is not considered credible in light of the low applied stresses and the inherent ductility of the piping material. The Reactor Materials Program was initiated to provide the technical basis for an alternate credible design basis accident. One aspect of this work is to determine the probability of the DEGB; to show that in addition to being incredible, it is also highly improbable. The probability of a DEGB is broken into two parts: failure by direct means, and indirectly-induced failure. Failure of the piping by direct means can only be postulated to occur if an undetected crack grows to the point of instability, causing a large pipe break. While this accident is not as severe as a DEGB, it provides a conservative upper bound on the probability of a direct DEGB of the piping. The second part of this evaluation calculates the probability of piping failure by indirect causes. Indirect failure of the piping can be triggered by an earthquake which causes other reactor components or the reactor building to fall on the piping or pull it from its supports. Since indirectly-induced failure of the piping will not always produce consequences as severe as a DEGB, this gives a conservative estimate of the probability of an indirectly- induced DEGB. This second part, indirectly-induced pipe failure, is the subject of this report. Failure by seismic loads in the piping itself will be covered in a separate report on failure by direct causes. This report provides a detailed evaluation of L reactor. A walkdown of P reactor and an analysis of the P reactor building provide the basis for extending the L reactor results to P reactor
Bonsu, Kwadwo Osei; Owusu, Isaac Kofi; Buabeng, Kwame Ohene; Reidpath, Daniel D; Kadirvelu, Amudha
2017-04-01
Randomized control trials of statins have not demonstrated significant benefits in outcomes of heart failure (HF). However, randomized control trials may not always be generalizable. The aim was to determine whether statin and statin type-lipophilic or -hydrophilic improve long-term outcomes in Africans with HF. This was a retrospective longitudinal study of HF patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized at a tertiary healthcare center between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 in Ghana. Patients were eligible if they were discharged from first admission for HF (index admission) and followed up to time of all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality or end of study. Multivariable time-dependent Cox model and inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting of marginal structural model were used to estimate associations between statin treatment and outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios were also estimated for lipophilic and hydrophilic statin compared with no statin use. The study included 1488 patients (mean age 60.3±14.2 years) with 9306 person-years of observation. Using the time-dependent Cox model, the 5-year adjusted hazard ratios with 95% CI for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.67 (0.54-0.82), and 0.63 (0.51-0.79), respectively. Use of inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting resulted in estimates of 0.79 (0.65-0.96), 0.77 (0.63-0.96), and 0.77 (0.61-0.95) for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality, respectively, compared with no statin use. Among Africans with HF, statin treatment was associated with significant reduction in mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jang, Inseok; Kim, Ar Ryum; Jung, Wondea; Seong, Poong Hyun
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Many researchers have tried to understand human recovery process or step. • Modeling human recovery process is not sufficient to be applied to HRA. • The operation environment of MCRs in NPPs has changed by adopting new HSIs. • Recovery failure probability in a soft control operation environment is investigated. • Recovery failure probability here would be important evidence for expert judgment. - Abstract: It is well known that probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) today consider not just hardware failures and environmental events that can impact upon risk, but also human error contributions. Consequently, the focus on reliability and performance management has been on the prevention of human errors and failures rather than the recovery of human errors. However, the recovery of human errors is as important as the prevention of human errors and failures for the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs). For this reason, many researchers have tried to find a human recovery process or step. However, modeling the human recovery process is not sufficient enough to be applied to human reliability analysis (HRA), which requires human error and recovery probabilities. In this study, therefore, human error recovery failure probabilities based on predefined human error modes were investigated by conducting experiments in the operation mockup of advanced/digital main control rooms (MCRs) in NPPs. To this end, 48 subjects majoring in nuclear engineering participated in the experiments. In the experiments, using the developed accident scenario based on tasks from the standard post trip action (SPTA), the steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), and predominant soft control tasks, which are derived from the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and the excess steam demand event (ESDE), all error detection and recovery data based on human error modes were checked with the performance sheet and the statistical analysis of error recovery/detection was then
Estimating Recovery Failure Probabilities in Off-normal Situations from Full-Scope Simulator Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Kim, Seunghwan; Choi, Sun Yeong; Jung, Wondea [Korea Atomic Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
As part of this effort, KAERI developed the Human Reliability data EXtraction (HuREX) framework and is collecting full-scope simulator-based human reliability data into the OPERA (Operator PErformance and Reliability Analysis) database. In this study, with the series of estimation research for HEPs or PSF effects, significant information for a quantitative HRA analysis, recovery failure probabilities (RFPs), were produced from the OPERA database. Unsafe acts can occur at any time in safety-critical systems and the operators often manage the systems by discovering their errors and eliminating or mitigating them. To model the recovery processes or recovery strategies, there were several researches that categorize the recovery behaviors. Because the recent human error trends are required to be considered during a human reliability analysis, Jang et al. can be seen as an essential effort of the data collection. However, since the empirical results regarding soft controls were produced from a controlled laboratory environment with student participants, it is necessary to analyze a wide range of operator behaviors using full-scope simulators. This paper presents the statistics related with human error recovery behaviors obtained from the full-scope simulations that in-site operators participated in. In this study, the recovery effects by shift changes or technical support centers were not considered owing to a lack of simulation data.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kurisaka, Kenichi
1999-11-01
The objective of this study is to develop fundamental data for examination on efficiency of preventive maintenance and surveillance test from the standpoint of failure probability. In this study, as a major standby component, a pneumatic valve in sodium cooling systems was selected. A statistical analysis was made about a trend of valve in sodium cooling systems was selected. A statistical analysis was made about a trend of valve failure-to-open/close (FTOC) probability depending on number of demands ('n'), time since installation ('t') and standby time since last open/close action ('T'). The analysis is based on the field data of operating- and failure-experiences stored in the Component Reliability Database and Statistical Analysis System for LMFBR's (CORDS). In the analysis, the FTOC probability ('P') was expressed as follows: P=1-exp{-C-En-F/n-λT-aT(t-T/2)-AT 2 /2}. The functional parameters, 'C', 'E', 'F', 'λ', 'a' and 'A', were estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation method. As a result, the FTOC probability is almost expressed with the failure probability being derived from the failure rate under assumption of the Poisson distribution only when valve cycle (i.e. open-close-open cycle) exceeds about 100 days. When the valve cycle is shorter than about 100 days, the FTOC probability can be adequately estimated with the parameter model proposed in this study. The results obtained from this study may make it possible to derive an adequate frequency of surveillance test for a given target of the FTOC probability. (author)
Wang, Yu; Jiang, Wenchun; Luo, Yun; Zhang, Yucai; Tu, Shan-Tung
2017-12-01
The reduction and re-oxidation of anode have significant effects on the integrity of the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) sealed by the glass-ceramic (GC). The mechanical failure is mainly controlled by the stress distribution. Therefore, a three dimensional model of SOFC is established to investigate the stress evolution during the reduction and re-oxidation by finite element method (FEM) in this paper, and the failure probability is calculated using the Weibull method. The results demonstrate that the reduction of anode can decrease the thermal stresses and reduce the failure probability due to the volumetric contraction and porosity increasing. The re-oxidation can result in a remarkable increase of the thermal stresses, and the failure probabilities of anode, cathode, electrolyte and GC all increase to 1, which is mainly due to the large linear strain rather than the porosity decreasing. The cathode and electrolyte fail as soon as the linear strains are about 0.03% and 0.07%. Therefore, the re-oxidation should be controlled to ensure the integrity, and a lower re-oxidation temperature can decrease the stress and failure probability.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Larbi, M.; Besnier, P.; Pecqueux, B.
2014-01-01
This paper treats about the risk analysis of an EMC default using a statistical approach based on reliability methods. A probability of failure (i.e. probability of exceeding a threshold) of an induced current by crosstalk is computed by taking into account uncertainties on input parameters influencing extreme levels of interference in the context of transmission lines. Results are compared to Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). (authors)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kim, Seung-Woo; Suh, Kyung-Duck; Burcharth, Hans F.
2010-01-01
The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cruz S, W.D.
1988-01-01
This paper refers to emergency safety systems of Angra INPP (Brazil 1626 Mw(e)) such as containment, heat removal, emergency removal system, radioactive elements removal from containment environment, berated water infection, etc. Associated with these systems, the failure probability calculation of IE Class bars is achieved, this is a safety classification for electrical equipment essential for the systems mentioned above
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan, G.M.
1977-01-01
A simple probabilistic methodology is used to investigate the benefit, in terms of reduction of disruptive failure probability, which comes from the application of periodic In Service Inspection (ISI) to nuclear pressure vessels. The analysis indicates the strong interaction between inspection benefit and the intrinsic quality of the structure. In order to quantify the inspection benefit, assumptions are made which allow the quality to be characterized in terms of the parameters governing a Log Normal distribution of time-to-failure. Using these assumptions, it is shown that the overall benefit of ISI is unlikely to exceed an order of magnitude in terms of reduction of disruptive failure probability. The method is extended to evaluate the effect of the periodicity and reliability of the inspection process itself. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan, G.M.
1978-01-01
A simple probabilistic methodology is used to investigate the benefit, in terms of reduction of disruptive failure probability, which comes from the application of periodic in-service inspection to nuclear pressure vessels. The analysis indicates the strong interaction between inspection benefit and the intrinsic quality of the structure. In order to quantify the inspection benefit, assumptions are made which allow the quality to be characterised in terms of the parameters governing a log normal distribution of time - to - failure. Using these assumptions, it is shown that the overall benefit of in-service inspection unlikely to exceed an order of magnitude in terms of reduction of disruptive failure probability. The method is extended to evaluate the effect of the periodicity and reliability of the inspection process itself. (author)
Most Probable Failures in LHC Magnets and Time Constants of their Effects on the Beam.
Gomez Alonso, Andres
2006-01-01
During the LHC operation, energies up to 360 MJ will be stored in each proton beam and over 10 GJ in the main electrical circuits. With such high energies, beam losses can quickly lead to important equipment damage. The Machine Protection Systems have been designed to provide reliable protection of the LHC through detection of the failures leading to beam losses and fast dumping of the beams. In order to determine the protection strategies, it is important to know the time constants of the failure effects on the beam. In this report, we give an estimation of the time constants of quenches and powering failures in LHC magnets. The most critical failures are powering failures in certain normal conducting circuits, leading to relevant effects on the beam in ~1 ms. The failures on super conducting magnets leading to fastest losses are quenches. In this case, the effects on the beam can be signficant ~10 ms after the quench occurs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Echard, B.; Gayton, N.; Lemaire, M.; Relun, N.
2013-01-01
Applying reliability methods to a complex structure is often delicate for two main reasons. First, such a structure is fortunately designed with codified rules leading to a large safety margin which means that failure is a small probability event. Such a probability level is difficult to assess efficiently. Second, the structure mechanical behaviour is modelled numerically in an attempt to reproduce the real response and numerical model tends to be more and more time-demanding as its complexity is increased to improve accuracy and to consider particular mechanical behaviour. As a consequence, performing a large number of model computations cannot be considered in order to assess the failure probability. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes an original and easily implementable method called AK-IS for active learning and Kriging-based Importance Sampling. This new method is based on the AK-MCS algorithm previously published by Echard et al. [AK-MCS: an active learning reliability method combining Kriging and Monte Carlo simulation. Structural Safety 2011;33(2):145–54]. It associates the Kriging metamodel and its advantageous stochastic property with the Importance Sampling method to assess small failure probabilities. It enables the correction or validation of the FORM approximation with only a very few mechanical model computations. The efficiency of the method is, first, proved on two academic applications. It is then conducted for assessing the reliability of a challenging aerospace case study submitted to fatigue.
A Novel RSPF Approach to Prediction of High-Risk, Low-Probability Failure Events
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Particle filters (PF) have been established as the de facto state of the art in failure prognosis, and particularly in the representation and management of...
SIMULATED HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATION TO DYNAMIC HUMAN FAILURE EVENTS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.
2016-10-01
Abstract Objectives: Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods typically analyze human failure events (HFEs) at the overall task level. For dynamic HRA, it is important to model human activities at the subtask level. There exists a disconnect between dynamic subtask level and static task level that presents issues when modeling dynamic scenarios. For example, the SPAR-H method is typically used to calculate the human error probability (HEP) at the task level. As demonstrated in this paper, quantification in SPAR-H does not translate to the subtask level. Methods: Two different discrete distributions were generated for each SPAR-H Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) to define the frequency of PSF levels. The first distribution was a uniform, or uninformed distribution that assumed the frequency of each PSF level was equally likely. The second non-continuous distribution took the frequency of PSF level as identified from an assessment of the HERA database. These two different approaches were created to identify the resulting distribution of the HEP. The resulting HEP that appears closer to the known distribution, a log-normal centered on 1E-3, is the more desirable. Each approach then has median, average and maximum HFE calculations applied. To calculate these three values, three events, A, B and C are generated from the PSF level frequencies comprised of subtasks. The median HFE selects the median PSF level from each PSF and calculates HEP. The average HFE takes the mean PSF level, and the maximum takes the maximum PSF level. The same data set of subtask HEPs yields starkly different HEPs when aggregated to the HFE level in SPAR-H. Results: Assuming that each PSF level in each HFE is equally likely creates an unrealistic distribution of the HEP that is centered at 1. Next the observed frequency of PSF levels was applied with the resulting HEP behaving log-normally with a majority of the values under 2.5% HEP. The median, average and maximum HFE calculations did yield
Ortega, R.; Gutierrez, E.; Carciumaru, D. D.; Huesca-Perez, E.
2017-12-01
We present a method to compute the conditional and no-conditional probability density function (PDF) of the finite fault distance distribution (FFDD). Two cases are described: lines and areas. The case of lines has a simple analytical solution while, in the case of areas, the geometrical probability of a fault based on the strike, dip, and fault segment vertices is obtained using the projection of spheres in a piecewise rectangular surface. The cumulative distribution is computed by measuring the projection of a sphere of radius r in an effective area using an algorithm that estimates the area of a circle within a rectangle. In addition, we introduce the finite fault distance metrics. This distance is the distance where the maximum stress release occurs within the fault plane and generates a peak ground motion. Later, we can apply the appropriate ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) for PSHA. The conditional probability of distance given magnitude is also presented using different scaling laws. A simple model of constant distribution of the centroid at the geometrical mean is discussed, in this model hazard is reduced at the edges because the effective size is reduced. Nowadays there is a trend of using extended source distances in PSHA, however it is not possible to separate the fault geometry from the GMPE. With this new approach, it is possible to add fault rupture models separating geometrical and propagation effects.
PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF THE TRUDOCK CRANE SYSTEM AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT (WIPP)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greenfield, M.A.; Sargent, T.J.
2000-01-01
This probabilistic analysis of WIPP TRUDOCK crane failure is based on two sources of failure data. The source for operator errors is the report by Swain and Guttman, NUREG/CR-1278-F, August 1983. The source for crane cable hook breaks was initially made by WIPP/WID-96- 2196, Rev. O by using relatively old (1970s) U.S. Navy data (NUREG-0612). However, a helpful analysis by R.K. Deremer of PLG guided the authors to values that were more realistic and more conservative, with the recommendation that the crane cable/hook failure rate should be 2.5 x 10-6 per demand. This value was adopted and used. Based on these choices a mean failure rate of 9.70 x 10-3(1/yr) was calculated. However, a mean rate by itself does not reveal the level of confidence to be associated with this number. Guidance to making confidence calculations came from the report by Swain and Guttman, who stated that failure data could be described by lognormal distributions. This is in agreement with the widely use d reports (by DOE and others) NPRD-95 and NPRD-91, on failure data. The calculations of confidence levels showed that the mean failure rate of 9.70x 10-3(1/yr) corresponded to a percentile value of approximately 71; i.e. there is a 71% likelihood that the failure rate is less than 9.70x 10-3(1/yr). One also calculated that there is a 95% likelihood that the failure rate is less than 29.6x 10-3(1/yr). Or, as stated previously, there is a 71% likelihood that not more than one dropped load will occur in 103 years. Also, there is a 95% likelihood that not more than one dropped load will occur in approximately 34 years. It is the responsibility of DOE to select the confidence level at which it desires to operate
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Helton, Jon C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie. [Engineering Mechanics Corp. of Columbus, OH (United States)
2018-02-01
Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual failure after some amount of elapsed time. The following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iv) Formal representation of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (v) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (vi) Formal representation of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, (vii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, and (viii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico
2016-01-01
The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.
Impact of the specialization from failures data in probability safety analysis for process plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ribeiro, Antonio C.O.; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e
2005-01-01
Full text: The aim of this paper is to show the Bayesian inference in reliability studies, which are used to failures, rates updating in safety analyses. It is developed the impact of its using in quantitative risk assessments (QRA) for industrial process plants. With this approach we find a structured and auditable way of showing the difference between an industrial installation with a good project and maintenance structure from another one that shows a low level of quality in these areas. In general the evidence from failures rates and as follow the frequency of occurrence from scenarios, which the risks taken in account in ERA, are taken from generics data banks, instead of, the installation in analysis. The use of this methodology in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) for nuclear plants is commonly used when you need to find the final fault tree event evaluation applied to a scenario, but it is not showed in a PSA level III. (author)
The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in surry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pilch, M.M.; Allen, M.D.; Bergeron, K.D.; Tadios, E.L.; Stamps, D.W.; Spencer, B.W.; Quick, K.S.; Knudson, D.L.
1995-05-01
In a light-water reactor core melt accident, if the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) fails while the reactor coolant system (RCS) at high pressure, the expulsion of molten core debris may pressurize the reactor containment building (RCB) beyond its failure pressure. A failure in the bottom head of the RPV, followed by melt expulsion and blowdown of the RCS, will entrain molten core debris in the high-velocity steam blowdown gas. This chain of events is called a high-pressure melt ejection (HPME). Four mechanisms may cause a rapid increase in pressure and temperature in the reactor containment: (1) blowdown of the RCS, (2) efficient debris-to-gas heat transfer, (3) exothermic metal-steam and metal-oxygen reactions, and (4) hydrogen combustion. These processes, which lead to increased loads on the containment building, are collectively referred to as direct containment heating (DCH). It is necessary to understand factors that enhance or mitigate DCH because the pressure load imposed on the RCB may lead to early failure of the containment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soejima, Akinori; Ishizuka, Shynji; Suzuki, Michihiko; Minoshima, Shinobu; Nakabayashi, Kimimasa; Kitamoto, Kiyoshi; Nagasawa, Toshihiko
1995-01-01
In recent years, several laboratories have suggested that serum levels of antioxidant activity and redox balance are reduced in patients with chronic renal failure. Some clinical reports have also proposed that defective serum antioxidative enzymes may contribute to a certain uremic toxicity through peroxidative cell damage. A 48-year-old woman was referred to us from the surgical department of our hospital because of consciousness disturbance, panctytopenia and acute acceleration of chronic azotemia after postoperative radiation therapy. We diagnosed acute acceleration of chronic renal failure with severe acidemia and started hemodialysis therapy immediately. Two days after admission to our department, she developed upper abdominal sharp pain and bradyarrhythmia. Serum amylase activity was elevated markedly and the ECG finding showed myocardial ischemia. On the 24th hospital day these complications were treated successfully with conservative therapy and hemodialysis. We considered that radiation therapy in this patient with chronic renal failure evoked marked oxidative stress and that deficiency of transferrin played an important role in peroxidative cell damage. (author)
ERG review of containment failure probability and repository functional design criteria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gopal, S.
1986-06-01
The Engineering Review Group (ERG) was established by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) to help evaluate engineering-related issues in the US Department of Energy's nuclear waste repository program. The June 1984 meeting of the ERG considered two topics: (1) statistical probability for containment of nuclides within the waste package and (2) repository design criteria. This report documents the ERG's comments and recommendations on these two subjects and the ONWI response to the specific points raised by ERG
The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion. Supplement 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pilch, M.M.; Allen, M.D.; Stamps, D.W.; Tadios, E.L.; Knudson, D.L.
1994-12-01
Supplement 1 of NUREG/CR-6075 brings to closure the DCH issue for the Zion plant. It includes the documentation of the peer review process for NUREG/CR-6075, the assessments of four new splinter scenarios defined in working group meetings, and modeling enhancements recommended by the working groups. In the four new scenarios, consistency of the initial conditions has been implemented by using insights from systems-level codes. SCDAP/RELAP5 was used to analyze three short-term station blackout cases with Different lead rates. In all three case, the hot leg or surge line failed well before the lower head and thus the primary system depressurized to a point where DCH was no longer considered a threat. However, these calculations were continued to lower head failure in order to gain insights that were useful in establishing the initial and boundary conditions. The most useful insights are that the RCS pressure is-low at vessel breach metallic blockages in the core region do not melt and relocate into the lower plenum, and melting of upper plenum steel is correlated with hot leg failure. THE SCDAP/RELAP output was used as input to CONTAIN to assess the containment conditions at vessel breach. The containment-side conditions predicted by CONTAIN are similar to those originally specified in NUREG/CR-6075
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carausu, A.
1996-01-01
A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)
The probability of Mark-I containment failure by melt-attack of the liner
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Theofanous, T.G.; Yan, H.; Podowski, M.Z.
1993-11-01
This report is a followup to the work presented in NUREG/CR-5423 addressing early failure of a BWR Mark I containment by melt attack of the liner, and it constitutes a part of the implementation of the Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) employed therein. In particular, it expands the quantification to include four independent evaluations carried out at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Argonne National Laboratories, Sandia National Laboratories and ANATECH, Inc. on the various portions of the phenomenology involved. These independent evaluations are included here as Parts II through V. The results, and their integration in Part I, demonstrate the substantial synergism and convergence necessary to recognize that the issue has been resolved
On the failure probability of the primary piping of the PWR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schueller, G.I.; Hampl, N.C.
1984-01-01
A methodology for quantification of the structural reliability of the primary piping (PP) of a PWR under operational and accidental conditions is developed. Biblis B is utilized as reference plant. The PP structure is modeled utilizing finite element procedures. Based on the properties of the operational and internal accidental conditions, a static analysis suffices. However, a dynamic analysis considering non-linear effects of the soil-structure-interaction is to be used to determine load effects due to earthquake induced loading. Considering realistically the presence of initial cracks in welds and considering annual frequencies of occurrence of the various loading conditions, a crack propagation calculation utilizing the Forman model is carried out. Simultaneously leak and break probabilities using the 'Two Criteria'-Aproach are computed. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used as method of solution. (Author) [pt
Reliability, failure probability, and strength of resin-based materials for CAD/CAM restorations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kiatlin Lim
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: This study investigated the Weibull parameters and 5% fracture probability of direct, indirect composites, and CAD/CAM composites. Material and Methods: Discshaped (12 mm diameter x 1 mm thick specimens were prepared for a direct composite [Z100 (ZO, 3M-ESPE], an indirect laboratory composite [Ceramage (CM, Shofu], and two CAD/CAM composites [Lava Ultimate (LU, 3M ESPE; Vita Enamic (VE, Vita Zahnfabrik] restorations (n=30 for each group. The specimens were polished, stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C. Weibull parameters (m= modulus of Weibull, σ0= characteristic strength and flexural strength for 5% fracture probability (σ5% were determined using a piston-on-three-balls device at 1 MPa/s in distilled water. Statistical analysis for biaxial flexural strength analysis were performed either by both one-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc (α=0.05 or by Pearson's correlation test. Results: Ranking of m was: VE (19.5, LU (14.5, CM (11.7, and ZO (9.6. Ranking of σ0 (MPa was: LU (218.1, ZO (210.4, CM (209.0, and VE (126.5. σ5% (MPa was 177.9 for LU, 163.2 for CM, 154.7 for Z0, and 108.7 for VE. There was no significant difference in the m for ZO, CM, and LU. VE presented the highest m value and significantly higher than ZO. For σ0 and σ5%, ZO, CM, and LU were similar but higher than VE. Conclusion: The strength characteristics of CAD/ CAM composites vary according to their composition and microstructure. VE presented the lowest strength and highest Weibull modulus among the materials.
Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik
2013-06-01
Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. For a willingness-to-pay value of €10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was €1.64 (interquartile range €0.05-€3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of €57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hudson, E.E.; McCleery, J.E.
1979-05-01
One of the integral elements of the Nuclear Waste Management Program is the material handling task of retrieving Canisters containing spent unreprocessed fuel from their emplacement in a deep geologic salt bed Depository. A study of the retrieval concept data base predicated this report. In this report, alternative concepts for the tasks are illustrated and critiqued, a baseline concept in scenario form is derived and basic retrieval subsystem specifications are presented with cyclic failure probabilities predicted. The report is based on the following assumptions: (a) during retrieval, a temporary radiation seal is placed over each Canister emplacement; (b) a sleeve, surrounding the Canister, was initially installed during the original emplacement; (c) the emplacement room's physical and environmental conditions established in this report are maintained while the task is performed
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pankaskie, P.J.
1980-05-01
A fuel Pellet-Zircaloy Cladding (thermo-mechanical-chemical) interactions (PCI) failure model for estimating the Probability of Failure in Transient Increases in Power (PROFIT) was developed. PROFIT is based on (1) standard statistical methods applied to available PCI fuel failure data and (2) a mechanistic analysis of the environmental and strain-rate-dependent stress versus strain characteristics of Zircaloy cladding. The statistical analysis of fuel failures attributable to PCI suggested that parameters in addition to power, transient increase in power, and burnup are needed to define PCI fuel failures in terms of probability estimates with known confidence limits. The PROFIT model, therefore, introduces an environmental and strain-rate dependent Strain Energy Absorption to Failure (SEAF) concept to account for the stress versus strain anomalies attributable to interstitial-dislocation interaction effects in the Zircaloy cladding
Probability of brittle failure
Kim, A.; Bosnyak, C. P.; Chudnovsky, A.
1991-01-01
A methodology was developed for collecting statistically representative data for crack initiation and arrest from small number of test specimens. An epoxy (based on bisphenol A diglycidyl ether and polyglycol extended diglycyl ether and cured with diethylene triamine) is selected as a model material. A compact tension specimen with displacement controlled loading is used to observe multiple crack initiation and arrests. The energy release rate at crack initiation is significantly higher than that at a crack arrest, as has been observed elsewhere. The difference between these energy release rates is found to depend on specimen size (scale effect), and is quantitatively related to the fracture surface morphology. The scale effect, similar to that in statistical strength theory, is usually attributed to the statistics of defects which control the fracture process. Triangular shaped ripples (deltoids) are formed on the fracture surface during the slow subcritical crack growth, prior to the smooth mirror-like surface characteristic of fast cracks. The deltoids are complementary on the two crack faces which excludes any inelastic deformation from consideration. Presence of defects is also suggested by the observed scale effect. However, there are no defects at the deltoid apexes detectable down to the 0.1 micron level.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greenfield, M.A.; Sargent, T.J.
1995-11-01
The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the open-quotes reportedclose quotes failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the open-quotes mission timeclose quotes. In many instances the open-quotes mission timeclose quotes will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular open-quotes reoperational checkclose quotes tests, the open-quotes mission timeclose quotes for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.
1995-11-01
The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Ragab
2001-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the issue of "what reservoir storage capacity is required to maintain a yield with a given probability of failure?". It is an important issue in terms of construction and cost. HYDROMED offers a solution based on the modified Gould probability matrix method. This method has the advantage of sampling all years data without reference to the sequence and is therefore particularly suitable for catchments with patchy data. In the HYDROMED model, the probability of failure is calculated on a monthly basis. The model has been applied to the El-Gouazine catchment in Tunisia using a long rainfall record from Kairouan together with the estimated Hortonian runoff, class A pan evaporation data and estimated abstraction data. Generally, the probability of failure differed from winter to summer. Generally, the probability of failure approaches zero when the reservoir capacity is 500,000 m3. The 25% probability of failure (75% success is achieved with a reservoir capacity of 58,000 m3 in June and 95,000 m3 in January. The probability of failure for a 240,000 m3 capacity reservoir (closer to storage capacity of El-Gouazine 233,000 m3, is approximately 5% in November, December and January, 3% in March, and 1.1% in May and June. Consequently there is no high risk of El-Gouazine being unable to meet its requirements at a capacity of 233,000 m3. Subsequently the benefit, in terms of probability of failure, by increasing the reservoir volume of El-Gouazine to greater than the 250,000 m3 is not high. This is important for the design engineers and the funding organizations. However, the analysis is based on the existing water abstraction policy, absence of siltation rate data and on the assumption that the present climate will prevail during the lifetime of the reservoir. Should these conditions change, a new analysis should be carried out. Keywords: HYDROMED, reservoir, storage capacity, probability of failure, Mediterranean
Failure probabilities of SiC clad fuel during a LOCA in public acceptable simple SMR (PASS)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Youho, E-mail: euo@kaist.ac.kr; Kim, Ho Sik, E-mail: hskim25@kaist.ac.kr; NO, Hee Cheon, E-mail: hcno@kaist.ac.kr
2015-10-15
Highlights: • Graceful operating conditions of SMRs markedly lower SiC cladding stress. • Steady-state fracture probabilities of SiC cladding is below 10{sup −7} in SMRs. • PASS demonstrates fuel coolability (T < 1300 °C) with sole radiation in LOCA. • SiC cladding failure probabilities of PASS are ∼10{sup −2} in LOCA. • Cold gas gap pressure controls SiC cladding tensile stress level in LOCA. - Abstract: Structural integrity of SiC clad fuels in reference Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) (NuScale, SMART, IRIS) and a commercial pressurized water reactor (PWR) are assessed with a multi-layered SiC cladding structural analysis code. Featured with low fuel pin power and temperature, SMRs demonstrate markedly reduced incore-residence fracture probabilities below ∼10{sup −7}, compared to those of commercial PWRs ∼10{sup −6}–10{sup −1}. This demonstrates that SMRs can serve as a near-term deployment fit to SiC cladding with a sound management of its statistical brittle fracture. We proposed a novel SMR named Public Acceptable Simple SMR (PASS), which is featured with 14 × 14 assemblies of SiC clad fuels arranged in a square ring layout. PASS aims to rely on radiative cooling of fuel rods during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) by fully leveraging high temperature tolerance of SiC cladding. An overarching assessment of SiC clad fuel performance in PASS was conducted with a combined methodology—(1) FRAPCON-SiC for steady-state performance analysis of PASS fuel rods, (2) computational fluid dynamics code FLUENT for radiative cooling rate of fuel rods during a LOCA, and (3) multi-layered SiC cladding structural analysis code with previously developed SiC recession correlations under steam environments for both steady-state and LOCA. The results show that PASS simultaneously maintains desirable fuel cooling rate with the sole radiation and sound structural integrity of fuel rods for over 36 days of a LOCA without water supply. The stress level of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhaskaran, G.; McCleery, J.E.
1979-10-01
This report provides support in developing an accident prediction event tree diagram, with an analysis of the baseline design concept for the retrieval of emplaced spent unreprocessed fuel (SURF) contained in a degraded Canister. The report contains an evaluation check list, accident logic diagrams, accident event tables, fault trees/event trees and discussions of failure probabilities for the following subsystems as potential contributors to a failure: (a) Canister extraction, including the core and ram units; (b) Canister transfer at the hoist area; and (c) Canister hoisting. This report is the second volume of a series. It continues and expands upon the report Retrieval System for Emplaced Spent Unreprocessed Fuel (SURF) in Salt Bed Depository: Baseline Concept Criteria Specifications and Mechanical Failure Probabilities. This report draws upon the baseline conceptual specifications contained in the first report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kamyab, Shahabeddin; Nematollahi, Mohammadreza; Shafiee, Golnoush
2013-01-01
Highlights: ► Importance and sensitivity analysis has been performed for a digitized reactor trip system. ► The results show acceptable trip unavailability, for software failure probabilities below 1E −4 . ► However, the value of Fussell–Vesley indicates that software common cause failure is still risk significant. ► Diversity and effective test is founded beneficial to reduce software contribution. - Abstract: The reactor trip system has been digitized in advanced nuclear power plants, since the programmable nature of computer based systems has a number of advantages over non-programmable systems. However, software is still vulnerable to common cause failure (CCF). Residual software faults represent a CCF concern, which threat the implemented achievements. This study attempts to assess the effectiveness of so-called defensive strategies against software CCF with respect to reliability. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by re-quantifying the models upon changing the software failure probability. Importance measures then have been estimated in order to reveal the specific contribution of software CCF in the trip failure probability. The results reveal the importance and effectiveness of signal and software diversity as applicable strategies to ameliorate inefficiencies due to software CCF in the reactor trip system (RTS). No significant change has been observed in the rate of RTS failure probability for the basic software CCF greater than 1 × 10 −4 . However, the related Fussell–Vesley has been greater than 0.005, for the lower values. The study concludes that consideration of risk associated with the software based systems is a multi-variant function which requires compromising among them in more precise and comprehensive studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jasso G, J.; Diaz S, A.; Mendoza G, G.; Sainz M, E.; Garcia de la C, F. M.
2014-10-01
The growth and the cracks propagation by fatigue are a typical degradation mechanism that is presented in the nuclear industry as in the conventional industry; the unstable propagation of a crack can cause the catastrophic failure of a metallic component even with high ductility; for this reason, activities of programmed maintenance have been established in the industry using inspection and visual techniques and/or ultrasound with an established periodicity allowing to follow up to these growths, controlling the undesirable effects; however, these activities increase the operation costs; and in the peculiar case of the nuclear industry, they increase the radiation exposure to the participant personnel. The use of mathematical processes that integrate concepts of uncertainty, material properties and the probability associated to the inspection results, has been constituted as a powerful tool of evaluation of the component reliability, reducing costs and exposure levels. In this work the evaluation of the failure probability by cracks growth preexisting by fatigue is presented, in pipes of a Reactor Core Isolation Cooling system (Rcic) in a nuclear power station. The software WinPRAISE 07 (Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) was used supported in the probabilistic fracture mechanics principles. The obtained values of failure probability evidenced a good behavior of the analyzed pipes with a maximum order of 1.0 E-6, therefore is concluded that the performance of the lines of these pipes is reliable even extrapolating the calculations at 10, 20, 30 and 40 years of service. (Author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri
of the evolution of the PDF of a stochastic process; hence an alternative to the FPK. The considerable advantage of the introduced method over FPK is that its solution does not require high computational cost which extends its range of applicability to high order structural dynamic problems. The problem...... an alternative approach for estimation of the first excursion probability of any system is based on calculating the evolution of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the process and integrating it on the specified domain. Clearly this provides the most accurate results among the three classes of the methods....... The solution of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation for systems governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by Gaussian white noise will give the sought time variation of the probability density function. However the analytical solution of the FPK is available for only a few dynamic systems...
Popov, V. D.; Khamidullina, N. M.
2006-10-01
In developing radio-electronic devices (RED) of spacecraft operating in the fields of ionizing radiation in space, one of the most important problems is the correct estimation of their radiation tolerance. The “weakest link” in the element base of onboard microelectronic devices under radiation effect is the integrated microcircuits (IMC), especially of large scale (LSI) and very large scale (VLSI) degree of integration. The main characteristic of IMC, which is taken into account when making decisions on using some particular type of IMC in the onboard RED, is the probability of non-failure operation (NFO) at the end of the spacecraft’s lifetime. It should be noted that, until now, the NFO has been calculated only from the reliability characteristics, disregarding the radiation effect. This paper presents the so-called “reliability” approach to determination of radiation tolerance of IMC, which allows one to estimate the probability of non-failure operation of various types of IMC with due account of radiation-stimulated dose failures. The described technique is applied to RED onboard the Spektr-R spacecraft to be launched in 2007.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shibui, M.
1989-01-01
A new method for fatigue-life assessment of a component containing defects is presented such that a probabilistic approach is incorporated into the CEGB two-criteria method. The present method assumes that aspect ratio of initial defect, proportional coefficient of fatigue crack growth law and threshold stress intensity range are treated as random variables. Examples are given to illustrate application of the method to the reliability analysis of conduit for an internally cooled cabled superconductor (ICCS) subjected to cyclic quench pressure. The possible failure mode and mechanical properties contributing to the fatigue life of the thin conduit are discussed using analytical and experimental results. 9 refs., 9 figs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Jong-Min; Lee, Bong-Sang [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
The round robin project was proposed by the PFM Research Subcommittee of the Japan Welding Engineering Society to Asian Society for Integrity of Nuclear Components (ASINCO) members, which is designated in Korea as Phase 2 of A-Pro2. The objective of this phase 2 of RR analysis is to compare the scheme and results related to the assessment of structural integrity of RPV for the events important to safety in the design consideration but relatively low fracture probability. In this study, probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis was performed for the round robin cases using PROFAS-RV code. The effects of key parameters such as different transient, fluence level, Cu and Ni content, initial RT{sub NDT} and RT{sub NDT} shift model on the failure probability were systematically compared and reviewed. These efforts can minimize the uncertainty of the integrity evaluation for the reactor pressure vessel.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yunfeng Wu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Analysis of quantified voice patterns is useful in the detection and assessment of dysphonia and related phonation disorders. In this paper, we first study the linear correlations between 22 voice parameters of fundamental frequency variability, amplitude variations, and nonlinear measures. The highly correlated vocal parameters are combined by using the linear discriminant analysis method. Based on the probability density functions estimated by the Parzen-window technique, we propose an interclass probability risk (ICPR method to select the vocal parameters with small ICPR values as dominant features and compare with the modified Kullback-Leibler divergence (MKLD feature selection approach. The experimental results show that the generalized logistic regression analysis (GLRA, support vector machine (SVM, and Bagging ensemble algorithm input with the ICPR features can provide better classification results than the same classifiers with the MKLD selected features. The SVM is much better at distinguishing normal vocal patterns with a specificity of 0.8542. Among the three classification methods, the Bagging ensemble algorithm with ICPR features can identify 90.77% vocal patterns, with the highest sensitivity of 0.9796 and largest area value of 0.9558 under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The classification results demonstrate the effectiveness of our feature selection and pattern analysis methods for dysphonic voice detection and measurement.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ekonomou, L; Karampelas, P; Vita, V; Chatzarakis, G E
2011-01-01
One of the most popular methods of protecting high voltage transmission lines against lightning strikes and internal overvoltages is the use of arresters. The installation of arresters in high voltage transmission lines can prevent or even reduce the lines' failure rate. Several studies based on simulation tools have been presented in order to estimate the critical currents that exceed the arresters' rated energy stress and to specify the arresters' installation interval. In this work artificial intelligence, and more specifically a Q-learning artificial neural network (ANN) model, is addressed for evaluating the arresters' failure probability. The aims of the paper are to describe in detail the developed Q-learning ANN model and to compare the results obtained by its application in operating 150 kV Greek transmission lines with those produced using a simulation tool. The satisfactory and accurate results of the proposed ANN model can make it a valuable tool for designers of electrical power systems seeking more effective lightning protection, reducing operational costs and better continuity of service
Ekonomou, L.; Karampelas, P.; Vita, V.; Chatzarakis, G. E.
2011-04-01
One of the most popular methods of protecting high voltage transmission lines against lightning strikes and internal overvoltages is the use of arresters. The installation of arresters in high voltage transmission lines can prevent or even reduce the lines' failure rate. Several studies based on simulation tools have been presented in order to estimate the critical currents that exceed the arresters' rated energy stress and to specify the arresters' installation interval. In this work artificial intelligence, and more specifically a Q-learning artificial neural network (ANN) model, is addressed for evaluating the arresters' failure probability. The aims of the paper are to describe in detail the developed Q-learning ANN model and to compare the results obtained by its application in operating 150 kV Greek transmission lines with those produced using a simulation tool. The satisfactory and accurate results of the proposed ANN model can make it a valuable tool for designers of electrical power systems seeking more effective lightning protection, reducing operational costs and better continuity of service.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oldenburg, Curtis M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Budnitz, Robert J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
2016-08-31
If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO_{2} annually, with the CO_{2} delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO_{2} underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelines are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO_{2} release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of
R3 Cup Does Not Have a High Failure Rate in Conventional Bearings: A Minimum of 5-Year Follow-Up.
Teoh, Kar H; Whitham, Robert D J; Golding, David M; Wong, Jenny F; Lee, Paul Y F; Evans, Aled R
2018-02-01
The R3 cementless acetabular system was first marketed in Australia and Europe in 2007. Previous papers have shown high failure rates of the R3 cup with up to 24% with metal-on-metal bearing. There are currently no medium term clinical results on this cup. The aim of the study is to review our results of the R3 acetabular cup with conventional bearings with a minimum of 5-year follow-up. Patients who were implanted with the R3 acetabular cup were identified from our center's arthroplasty database. A total of 293 consecutive total hip arthroplasties were performed in 286 patients. The primary outcome was revision. The secondary outcomes were the Oxford Hip Scores (OHS) and radiographic evaluation. The mean age of the patients was 69.4 years. The mean preoperative OHS was 23 (range 10-34) and the mean OHS was 40 (range 33-48) at the final follow-up. Radiological evaluation showed an excellent ARA score in all patients at 5 years. None of the R3 cups showed osteolysis at the final follow-up. There were 3 revisions in our series, of which 2 R3 cups were revised. The risk of revision was 1.11% at 5 years. Our experience of using the R3 acetabular system with conventional bearings showed high survivorship and is consistent with the allocated Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel rating of 5A* as rated in 2015 in the United Kingdom. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Herzog, Ulrike; Bergou, Janos A.
2004-01-01
We consider two different optimized measurement strategies for the discrimination of nonorthogonal quantum states. The first is ambiguous discrimination with a minimum probability of inferring an erroneous result, and the second is unambiguous, i.e., error-free, discrimination with a minimum probability of getting an inconclusive outcome, where the measurement fails to give a definite answer. For distinguishing between two mixed quantum states, we investigate the relation between the minimum-error probability achievable in ambiguous discrimination, and the minimum failure probability that can be reached in unambiguous discrimination of the same two states. The latter turns out to be at least twice as large as the former for any two given states. As an example, we treat the case where the state of the quantum system is known to be, with arbitrary prior probability, either a given pure state, or a uniform statistical mixture of any number of mutually orthogonal states. For this case we derive an analytical result for the minimum probability of error and perform a quantitative comparison with the minimum failure probability
Reliability of structures by using probability and fatigue theories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Dong Hyeok; Park, Yeon Chang
2008-01-01
Methodologies to calculate failure probability and to estimate the reliability of fatigue loaded structures are developed. The applicability of the methodologies is evaluated with the help of the fatigue crack growth models suggested by Paris and Walker. The probability theories such as the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) are utilized. It is found that the failure probability decreases with the increase of the design fatigue life and the applied minimum stress, the decrease of the initial edge crack size, the applied maximum stress and the slope of Paris equation. Furthermore, according to the sensitivity analysis of random variables, the slope of Pairs equation affects the failure probability dominantly among other random variables in the Paris and the Walker models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Todinov, M.T.
2004-01-01
A new reliability measure is proposed and equations are derived which determine the probability of existence of a specified set of minimum gaps between random variables following a homogeneous Poisson process in a finite interval. Using the derived equations, a method is proposed for specifying the upper bound of the random variables' number density which guarantees that the probability of clustering of two or more random variables in a finite interval remains below a maximum acceptable level. It is demonstrated that even for moderate number densities the probability of clustering is substantial and should not be neglected in reliability calculations. In the important special case where the random variables are failure times, models have been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a set of minimum failure-free operating intervals before the random failures, with a specified probability. A model has also been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a minimum availability target. Using the models proposed, a new strategy, models and reliability tools have been developed for setting quantitative reliability requirements which consist of determining the intersection of the hazard rate envelopes (hazard rate upper bounds) which deliver a minimum failure-free operating period before random failures, a risk of premature failure below a maximum acceptable level and a minimum required availability. It is demonstrated that setting reliability requirements solely based on an availability target does not necessarily mean a low risk of premature failure. Even at a high availability level, the probability of premature failure can be substantial. For industries characterised by a high cost of failure, the reliability requirements should involve a hazard rate envelope limiting the risk of failure below a maximum acceptable level
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bishop, Peter; Bloomfield, Robin; Littlewood, Bev; Popov, Peter; Povyakalo, Andrey; Strigini, Lorenzo
2014-01-01
Redundancy and diversity have long been used as means to obtain high reliability in critical systems. While it is easy to show that, say, a 1-out-of-2 diverse system will be more reliable than each of its two individual “trains”, assessing the actual reliability of such systems can be difficult because the trains cannot be assumed to fail independently. If we cannot claim independence of train failures, the computation of system reliability is difficult, because we would need to know the probability of failure on demand (pfd) for every possible demand. These are unlikely to be known in the case of software. Claims for software often concern its marginalpfd, i.e. average across all possible demands. In this paper we consider the case of a 1-out-of-2 safety protection system in which one train contains software (and hardware), and the other train contains only hardware equipment. We show that a useful upper (i.e. conservative) bound can be obtained for the system pfd using only the unconditional pfd for software together with information about the variation of hardware failure probability across demands, which is likely to be known or estimatable. The worst-case result is obtained by “allocating” software failure probability among demand “classes” so as to maximize system pfd
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pezzi Filho, Mario [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
2005-07-01
In this study it is presented a methodology for assessing the likelihood of failure for every failure mechanism defined for carbon steel static offshore pipelines. This methodology is aimed to comply with the Integrity Management policy established by the Company. Decision trees are used for the development of the methodology and the evaluation of the extent and the significance of these failure mechanisms. Decision trees enable also the visualization of the logical structure of algorithms which eventually will be used in risk assessment software. The benefits of the proposed methodology are presented and it is recommended that it be tested on static offshore pipelines installed in different assets for validation. (author)
The probability and the management of human error
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dufey, R.B.; Saull, J.W.
2004-01-01
Embedded within modern technological systems, human error is the largest, and indeed dominant contributor to accident cause. The consequences dominate the risk profiles for nuclear power and for many other technologies. We need to quantify the probability of human error for the system as an integral contribution within the overall system failure, as it is generally not separable or predictable for actual events. We also need to provide a means to manage and effectively reduce the failure (error) rate. The fact that humans learn from their mistakes allows a new determination of the dynamic probability and human failure (error) rate in technological systems. The result is consistent with and derived from the available world data for modern technological systems. Comparisons are made to actual data from large technological systems and recent catastrophes. Best estimate values and relationships can be derived for both the human error rate, and for the probability. We describe the potential for new approaches to the management of human error and safety indicators, based on the principles of error state exclusion and of the systematic effect of learning. A new equation is given for the probability of human error (λ) that combines the influences of early inexperience, learning from experience (ε) and stochastic occurrences with having a finite minimum rate, this equation is λ 5.10 -5 + ((1/ε) - 5.10 -5 ) exp(-3*ε). The future failure rate is entirely determined by the experience: thus the past defines the future
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....
Generalized Probability-Probability Plots
Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.
2004-01-01
We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P
Planetary tides during the Maunder sunspot minimum
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smythe, C.M.; Eddy, J.A.
1977-01-01
Sun-centered planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials are here constructed for the AD1645 to 1715 period of sunspot absence, referred to as the 'Maunder Minimum'. These are found to be effectively indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and power spectra of tidal potential in the present era of a well established 11 year sunspot cycle. This places a new and difficult restraint on any tidal theory of sunspot formation. Problems arise in any direct gravitational theory due to the apparently insufficient forces and tidal heights involved. Proponents of the tidal hypothesis usually revert to trigger mechanisms, which are difficult to criticise or test by observation. Any tidal theory rests on the evidence of continued sunspot periodicity and the substantiation of a prolonged period of solar anomaly in the historical past. The 'Maunder Minimum' was the most drastic change in the behaviour of solar activity in the last 300 years; sunspots virtually disappeared for a 70 year period and the 11 year cycle was probably absent. During that time, however, the nine planets were all in their orbits, and planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials were indistinguishable from those of the present era, in which the 11 year cycle is well established. This provides good evidence against the tidal theory. The pattern of planetary tidal forces during the Maunder Minimum was reconstructed to investigate the possibility that the multiple planet forces somehow fortuitously cancelled at the time, that is that the positions of the slower moving planets in the 17th and early 18th centuries were such that conjunctions and tidal potentials were at the time reduced in number and force. There was no striking dissimilarity between the time of the Maunder Minimum and any period investigated. The failure of planetary conjunction patterns to reflect the drastic drop in sunspots during the Maunder Minimum casts doubt on the tidal theory of solar activity, but a more quantitative test
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vyacheslav I. Yukalov
2017-03-01
Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier Llorca
2004-10-01
Full Text Available Objetivo: Mostrar el efecto de los riesgos competitivos de muerte en el análisis de supervivencia. Métodos: Se presenta un ejemplo sobre la supervivencia libre de rechazo tras un trasplante cardíaco, en el que la muerte antes de desarrollar el rechazo actúa como riesgo competitivo. Mediante una simulación se comparan el estimador de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo de decrementos múltiples. Resultados: El método de Kaplan-Meier sobrestima el riesgo de rechazo. A continuación, se expone la aplicación del modelo de decrementos múltiples para el análisis de acontecimientos secundarios (en el ejemplo, la muerte tras el rechazo. Finalmente, se discuten las asunciones propias del método de Kaplan-Meier y las razones por las que no puede ser aplicado en presencia de riesgos competitivos. Conclusiones: El análisis de supervivencia debe ajustarse por los riesgos competitivos de muerte para evitar la sobrestimación del riesgo de fallo que se produce con el método de Kaplan-Meier.Objective: To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. Method: We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. Results: The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection. Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Conclusions: Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...
Failure detection system risk reduction assessment
Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)
2012-01-01
A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.
Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie
2011-01-01
This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.
Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V
1997-01-01
This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tingey, F.H.
1979-01-01
A viable safeguards system includes among other things the development and use of indices which trigger various courses of action. The usual limit of error calculation provides such an index. The classical approach is one of constructing tests which, under certain assumptions, make the likelihood of a false alarm small. Of concern also is the test's failure to indicate a loss (diversion) when in fact one has occurred. Since false alarms are usually costly and losses both costly and of extreme strategic sinificance, there remains the task of balancing the probability of false alarm and its consequences against the probability of undetected loss and its consequences. The application of other than classical hypothesis testing procedures are considered in this paper. Using various consequence models, trigger indices are derived which have certain optimum properties. Application of the techniques would enhance the material control function
ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY OF NONRECTORABLE REDUNDANT POWER SYSTEMS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT COMMON FAILURES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. A. Anischenko
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Reliability Analysis of nonrestorable redundant power Systems of industrial plants and other consumers of electric energy was carried out. The main attention was paid to numbers failures influence, caused by failures of all elements of System due to one general reason. Noted the main possible reasons of common failures formation. Two main indicators of reliability of non-restorable systems are considered: average time of no-failure operation and mean probability of no-failure operation. Modeling of failures were carried out by mean of division of investigated system into two in-series connected subsystems, one of them indicated independent failures, but the other indicated common failures. Due to joined modeling of single and common failures resulting intensity of failures is the amount incompatible components: intensity statistically independent failures and intensity of common failures of elements and system in total.It is shown the influence of common failures of elements on average time of no-failure operation of system. There is built the scale of preference of systems according to criterion of average time maximum of no-failure operation, depending on portion of common failures. It is noticed that such common failures don’t influence on the scale of preference, but change intervals of time, determining the moments of systems failures and excepting them from the number of comparators. There were discussed two problems of conditionally optimization of systems’ reservation choice, taking into account their reliability and cost. The first problem is solved due to criterion of minimum cost of system providing mean probability of no-failure operation, the second problem is solved due to criterion of maximum of mean probability of no-failure operation with cost limitation of system.
The probability of Mark-1 liner failure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Theofanous, T.G.; Yan, H.; Ratnam, U.; Amarasooriya, W.H.
1991-01-01
The authors are proposing a probabilistic methodology, the risk-oriented accident analysis methodology (ROAAM) as an overall systematic, disciplined approach for addressing the Mark-1 liner attack issue. The probabilistic framework encompasses the key features of the phenomenology, yet it is flexible enough to allow independent quantification of individual components as it may arise from independent research efforts. As a first step in this direction, the authors assembled, discussed, and took into consideration in the quantification proposed all relevant prior work. Furthermore, as an essential aspect of the overall methodology, most of those whose work has been referenced and/or used in this report have been asked to comment. The details of this work, the comments received, and the authors' responses are included in NUREG/CR-5423. As an even more important characteristic of the methodology, it is hoped that other quantifications (or information relevant to such) of independent components will become available in the future so that one can aim for convergence and closure
Failure-probability driven dose painting
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vogelius, Ivan R; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K
2013-01-01
To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Galileo Adeli Buriol
2000-03-01
Full Text Available Foram mapeadas as probabilidades de ocorrência de temperaturas mínimas do ar prejudiciais à fecundação das flores de arroz na Região Climática da Depressão Central do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Utilizaram-se os valores de probabilidade de ocorrência de temperaturas mínimas do ar iguais ou inferiores a 13, 15 e 17°C em um ou mais dias, cinco ou mais dias e dei ou mais dias para os meses de dezembro, janeiro, fevereiro e março. As isolinhas de probabilidade foram traçadas em um mapa ipsométrico da região. Os resultados mostram que as menores probabilidades se situam nas partes de menor altitude como nos vales dos rios Ibicuí, Jacuí, Taquari, estuário do Guaíba e seus afluentes e que o período de menor periculosidade das temperaturas mínimas do ar ocorre nos meses de janeiro e fevereiro.The probability of occurency of minimum air temperatures harmful to the fecundation of rice flowers in the Central Region of Rio Grande do Sul State was shown in a map. Minimum air temperatures lower or equal to 13, 15 e 17°C occuring during one or more days, five or more days and ten or more days in December, Jannary, February and March were used. The isolines of probability were drown on a map. The results showed that the lower probabilities are located in the parts of the land with lower altitude like the valley of Ibicui, Jacui, Taquari, and Guaiba rivers. Besides, January and February are the months where the risks of low temperatures to rice flowering is lower.
The Human Bathtub: Safety and Risk Predictions Including the Dynamic Probability of Operator Errors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duffey, Romney B.; Saull, John W.
2006-01-01
Reactor safety and risk are dominated by the potential and major contribution for human error in the design, operation, control, management, regulation and maintenance of the plant, and hence to all accidents. Given the possibility of accidents and errors, now we need to determine the outcome (error) probability, or the chance of failure. Conventionally, reliability engineering is associated with the failure rate of components, or systems, or mechanisms, not of human beings in and interacting with a technological system. The probability of failure requires a prior knowledge of the total number of outcomes, which for any predictive purposes we do not know or have. Analysis of failure rates due to human error and the rate of learning allow a new determination of the dynamic human error rate in technological systems, consistent with and derived from the available world data. The basis for the analysis is the 'learning hypothesis' that humans learn from experience, and consequently the accumulated experience defines the failure rate. A new 'best' equation has been derived for the human error, outcome or failure rate, which allows for calculation and prediction of the probability of human error. We also provide comparisons to the empirical Weibull parameter fitting used in and by conventional reliability engineering and probabilistic safety analysis methods. These new analyses show that arbitrary Weibull fitting parameters and typical empirical hazard function techniques cannot be used to predict the dynamics of human errors and outcomes in the presence of learning. Comparisons of these new insights show agreement with human error data from the world's commercial airlines, the two shuttle failures, and from nuclear plant operator actions and transient control behavior observed in transients in both plants and simulators. The results demonstrate that the human error probability (HEP) is dynamic, and that it may be predicted using the learning hypothesis and the minimum
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Scaling Qualitative Probability
Burgin, Mark
2017-01-01
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...
Minimum resolvable power contrast model
Qian, Shuai; Wang, Xia; Zhou, Jingjing
2018-01-01
Signal-to-noise ratio and MTF are important indexs to evaluate the performance of optical systems. However,whether they are used alone or joint assessment cannot intuitively describe the overall performance of the system. Therefore, an index is proposed to reflect the comprehensive system performance-Minimum Resolvable Radiation Performance Contrast (MRP) model. MRP is an evaluation model without human eyes. It starts from the radiance of the target and the background, transforms the target and background into the equivalent strips,and considers attenuation of the atmosphere, the optical imaging system, and the detector. Combining with the signal-to-noise ratio and the MTF, the Minimum Resolvable Radiation Performance Contrast is obtained. Finally the detection probability model of MRP is given.
Optimisation of the link volume for weakest link failure prediction in NBG-18 nuclear graphite
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hindley, Michael P.; Groenwold, Albert A.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Becker, Thorsten H.
2014-01-01
This paper describes the process for approximating the optimal size of a link volume required for weakest link failure calculation in nuclear graphite, with NBG-18 used as an example. As part of the failure methodology, the link volume is defined in terms of two grouping criteria. The first criterion is a factor of the maximum grain size and the second criterion is a function of an equivalent stress limit. A methodology for approximating these grouping criteria is presented. The failure methodology employs finite element analysis (FEA) in order to predict the failure load, at 50% probability of failure. The average experimental failure load, as determined for 26 test geometries, is used to evaluate the accuracy of the weakest link failure calculations. The influence of the two grouping criteria on the failure load prediction is evaluated by defining an error in prediction across all test cases. Mathematical optimisation is used to find the minimum error across a range of test case failure predictions. This minimum error is shown to deliver the most accurate failure prediction across a whole range of components, although some test cases in the range predict conservative failure load. The mathematical optimisation objective function is penalised to account for non-conservative prediction of the failure load for any test case. The optimisation is repeated and a link volume found for conservative failure prediction. The failure prediction for each test case is evaluated, in detail, for the proposed link volumes. Based on the analysis, link design volumes for NBG-18 are recommended for either accurate or conservative failure prediction
Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.
2017-01-03
A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.
Fields, Gary S.; Kanbur, Ravi
2005-01-01
Textbook analysis tells us that in a competitive labor market, the introduction of a minimum wage above the competitive equilibrium wage will cause unemployment. This paper makes two contributions to the basic theory of the minimum wage. First, we analyze the effects of a higher minimum wage in terms of poverty rather than in terms of unemployment. Second, we extend the standard textbook model to allow for incomesharing between the employed and the unemployed. We find that there are situation...
A Computable Plug-In Estimator of Minimum Volume Sets for Novelty Detection
Park, Chiwoo
2010-10-01
A minimum volume set of a probability density is a region of minimum size among the regions covering a given probability mass of the density. Effective methods for finding the minimum volume sets are very useful for detecting failures or anomalies in commercial and security applications-a problem known as novelty detection. One theoretical approach of estimating the minimum volume set is to use a density level set where a kernel density estimator is plugged into the optimization problem that yields the appropriate level. Such a plug-in estimator is not of practical use because solving the corresponding minimization problem is usually intractable. A modified plug-in estimator was proposed by Hyndman in 1996 to overcome the computation difficulty of the theoretical approach but is not well studied in the literature. In this paper, we provide theoretical support to this estimator by showing its asymptotic consistency. We also show that this estimator is very competitive to other existing novelty detection methods through an extensive empirical study. ©2010 INFORMS.
A Computable Plug-In Estimator of Minimum Volume Sets for Novelty Detection
Park, Chiwoo; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Ding, Yu
2010-01-01
A minimum volume set of a probability density is a region of minimum size among the regions covering a given probability mass of the density. Effective methods for finding the minimum volume sets are very useful for detecting failures or anomalies in commercial and security applications-a problem known as novelty detection. One theoretical approach of estimating the minimum volume set is to use a density level set where a kernel density estimator is plugged into the optimization problem that yields the appropriate level. Such a plug-in estimator is not of practical use because solving the corresponding minimization problem is usually intractable. A modified plug-in estimator was proposed by Hyndman in 1996 to overcome the computation difficulty of the theoretical approach but is not well studied in the literature. In this paper, we provide theoretical support to this estimator by showing its asymptotic consistency. We also show that this estimator is very competitive to other existing novelty detection methods through an extensive empirical study. ©2010 INFORMS.
Briggs, William M.
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jasso G, J.; Diaz S, A.; Mendoza G, G.; Sainz M, E. [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico); Garcia de la C, F. M., E-mail: angeles.diaz@inin.gob.mx [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Central Nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde, Km 44.5 Carretera Cardel-Nautla, 91476 Laguna Verde, Alto Lucero, Veracruz (Mexico)
2014-10-15
The growth and the cracks propagation by fatigue are a typical degradation mechanism that is presented in the nuclear industry as in the conventional industry; the unstable propagation of a crack can cause the catastrophic failure of a metallic component even with high ductility; for this reason, activities of programmed maintenance have been established in the industry using inspection and visual techniques and/or ultrasound with an established periodicity allowing to follow up to these growths, controlling the undesirable effects; however, these activities increase the operation costs; and in the peculiar case of the nuclear industry, they increase the radiation exposure to the participant personnel. The use of mathematical processes that integrate concepts of uncertainty, material properties and the probability associated to the inspection results, has been constituted as a powerful tool of evaluation of the component reliability, reducing costs and exposure levels. In this work the evaluation of the failure probability by cracks growth preexisting by fatigue is presented, in pipes of a Reactor Core Isolation Cooling system (Rcic) in a nuclear power station. The software WinPRAISE 07 (Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) was used supported in the probabilistic fracture mechanics principles. The obtained values of failure probability evidenced a good behavior of the analyzed pipes with a maximum order of 1.0 E-6, therefore is concluded that the performance of the lines of these pipes is reliable even extrapolating the calculations at 10, 20, 30 and 40 years of service. (Author)
Dependency models and probability of joint events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oerjasaeter, O.
1982-08-01
Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.
1980-01-01
This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events
Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities
Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value
2004-01-01
Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the
Component failure data base of TRIGA reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Djuricic, M.
2004-10-01
This compilation provides failure data such as first criticality, component type description (reactor component, population, cumulative calendar time, cumulative operating time, demands, failure mode, failures, failure rate, failure probability) and specific information on each type of component of TRIGA Mark-II reactors in Austria, Bangladesh, Germany, Finland, Indonesia, Italy, Indonesia, Slovenia and Romania. (nevyjel)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dam, H. van; Leege, P.F.A. de
1987-01-01
An analysis is presented of thermal systems with minimum critical mass, based on the use of materials with optimum neutron moderating and reflecting properties. The optimum fissile material distributions in the systems are obtained by calculations with standard computer codes, extended with a routine for flat fuel importance search. It is shown that in the minimum critical mass configuration a considerable part of the fuel is positioned in the reflector region. For 239 Pu a minimum critical mass of 87 g is found, which is the lowest value reported hitherto. (author)
Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cassinelli, G.
1979-01-01
The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)
Minimum entropy production principle
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Maes, C.; Netočný, Karel
2013-01-01
Roč. 8, č. 7 (2013), s. 9664-9677 ISSN 1941-6016 Institutional support: RVO:68378271 Keywords : MINEP Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Minimum_entropy_production_principle
Failure Diameter Resolution Study
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-12-19
Previously the SURFplus reactive burn model was calibrated for the TATB based explosive PBX 9502. The calibration was based on fitting Pop plot data, the failure diameter and the limiting detonation speed, and curvature effect data for small curvature. The model failure diameter is determined utilizing 2-D simulations of an unconfined rate stick to find the minimum diameter for which a detonation wave propagates. Here we examine the effect of mesh resolution on an unconfined rate stick with a diameter (10mm) slightly greater than the measured failure diameter (8 to 9 mm).
Definition of containment failure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cybulskis, P.
1982-01-01
Core meltdown accidents of the types considered in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA's) have been predicted to lead to pressures that will challenge the integrity of containment structures. Review of a number of PRA's indicates considerable variation in the predicted probability of containment failure as a function of pressure. Since the results of PRA's are sensitive to the prediction of the occurrence and the timing of containment failure, better understanding of realistic containment capabilities and a more consistent approach to the definition of containment failure pressures are required. Additionally, since the size and location of the failure can also significantly influence the prediction of reactor accident risk, further understanding of likely failure modes is required. The thresholds and modes of containment failure may not be independent
Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Howard, R.A.
1988-01-01
The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group
Philosophical theories of probability
Gillies, Donald
2000-01-01
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Process Equipment Failure Mode Analysis in a Chemical Industry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Nasl Seraji
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Background and aims Prevention of potential accidents and safety promotion in chemical processes requires systematic safety management in them. The main objective of this study was analysis of important process equipment components failure modes and effects in H2S and CO2 isolation from extracted natural gas process. Methods This study was done in sweetening unit of an Iranian gas refinery. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA used for identification of process equipments failures. Results Totally 30 failures identified and evaluated using FMEA. P-1 blower's blade breaking and sour gas pressure control valve bearing tight moving had maximum risk Priority number (RPN, P-1 body corrosion and increasing plug lower side angle of reach DEAlevel control valve in tower - 1 were minimum calculated RPN. Conclusion By providing a reliable documentation system for equipment failures and incidents recording, maintaining of basic information for later safety assessments would be possible. Also, the probability of failures and effects could be minimized by conducting preventive maintenance.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fraassen, B.C. van
1979-01-01
The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)
The quantum probability calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jauch, J.M.
1976-01-01
The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....
Probability of satellite collision
Mccarter, J. W.
1972-01-01
A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Rising above the Minimum Wage.
Even, William; Macpherson, David
An in-depth analysis was made of how quickly most people move up the wage scale from minimum wage, what factors influence their progress, and how minimum wage increases affect wage growth above the minimum. Very few workers remain at the minimum wage over the long run, according to this study of data drawn from the 1977-78 May Current Population…
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Rocchi, Paolo
2014-01-01
The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.
Johnson, Brett Emery Trabun; Gamage, Thoshitha Thanushka; Bakken, David Edward
2018-01-02
This disclosure describes, in part, a system management component and failure detection component for use in a power grid data network to identify anomalies within the network and systematically adjust the quality of service of data published by publishers and subscribed to by subscribers within the network. In one implementation, subscribers may identify a desired data rate, a minimum acceptable data rate, desired latency, minimum acceptable latency and a priority for each subscription. The failure detection component may identify an anomaly within the network and a source of the anomaly. Based on the identified anomaly, data rates and or data paths may be adjusted in real-time to ensure that the power grid data network does not become overloaded and/or fail.
FRELIB, Failure Reliability Index Calculation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parkinson, D.B.; Oestergaard, C.
1984-01-01
1 - Description of problem or function: Calculation of the reliability index given the failure boundary. A linearization point (design point) is found on the failure boundary for a stationary reliability index (min) and a stationary failure probability density function along the failure boundary, provided that the basic variables are normally distributed. 2 - Method of solution: Iteration along the failure boundary which must be specified - together with its partial derivatives with respect to the basic variables - by the user in a subroutine FSUR. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: No distribution information included (first-order-second-moment-method). 20 basic variables (could be extended)
Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto
2003-01-01
General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method
Minimum Error Entropy Classification
Marques de Sá, Joaquim P; Santos, Jorge M F; Alexandre, Luís A
2013-01-01
This book explains the minimum error entropy (MEE) concept applied to data classification machines. Theoretical results on the inner workings of the MEE concept, in its application to solving a variety of classification problems, are presented in the wider realm of risk functionals. Researchers and practitioners also find in the book a detailed presentation of practical data classifiers using MEE. These include multi‐layer perceptrons, recurrent neural networks, complexvalued neural networks, modular neural networks, and decision trees. A clustering algorithm using a MEE‐like concept is also presented. Examples, tests, evaluation experiments and comparison with similar machines using classic approaches, complement the descriptions.
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.
1989-01-01
The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs
Do Minimum Wages Fight Poverty?
David Neumark; William Wascher
1997-01-01
The primary goal of a national minimum wage floor is to raise the incomes of poor or near-poor families with members in the work force. However, estimates of employment effects of minimum wages tell us little about whether minimum wages are can achieve this goal; even if the disemployment effects of minimum wages are modest, minimum wage increases could result in net income losses for poor families. We present evidence on the effects of minimum wages on family incomes from matched March CPS s...
Shorack, Galen R
2017-01-01
This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...
Concepts of probability theory
Pfeiffer, Paul E
1979-01-01
Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Quantum computing and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferry, David K
2009-01-01
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)
Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Yongsheng; Khan, Faisal; Thodi, Premkumar; Abbassi, Rouzbeh
2017-01-01
Pipeline corrosion is one of the main causes of subsea pipeline failure. It is necessary to monitor and analyze pipeline condition to effectively predict likely failure. This paper presents an approach to analyze the observed abnormal events to assess the condition of subsea pipelines. First, it focuses on establishing a systematic corrosion failure model by Bow-Tie (BT) analysis, and subsequently the BT model is mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN) model. The BN model facilitates the modelling of interdependency of identified corrosion causes, as well as the updating of failure probabilities depending on the arrival of new information. Furthermore, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) has been developed to better structure the network and to provide an efficient updating algorithm. Based on this OOBN model, probability updating and probability adaptation are performed at regular intervals to estimate the failure probabilities due to corrosion and potential consequences. This results in an interval-based condition assessment of subsea pipeline subjected to corrosion. The estimated failure probabilities would help prioritize action to prevent and control failures. Practical application of the developed model is demonstrated using a case study. - Highlights: • A Bow-Tie (BT) based corrosion failure model linking causation with the potential losses. • A novel Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) based corrosion failure risk model. • Probability of failure updating and adaptation with respect to time using OOBN model. • Application of the proposed model to develop and test strategies to minimize failure risk.
Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lupia, S.; Giovannini, A.; Ugoccioni, R.
1995-01-01
Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)
Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lupia, S. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Giovannini, A. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Ugoccioni, R. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)
1995-03-01
Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)
Reactor instrumentation. Definition of the single failure criterion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1980-12-01
The standard defines the single failure criterion which is used in other IEC publications on reactor safety systems. The purpose of the single failure criterion is the assurance of minimum redundancy. (orig./HP) [de
Respiratory failure happens when not enough oxygen passes from your lungs into your blood. Your body's organs, ... brain, need oxygen-rich blood to work well. Respiratory failure also can happen if your lungs can' ...
Employment effects of minimum wages
Neumark, David
2014-01-01
The potential benefits of higher minimum wages come from the higher wages for affected workers, some of whom are in low-income families. The potential downside is that a higher minimum wage may discourage employers from using the low-wage, low-skill workers that minimum wages are intended to help. Research findings are not unanimous, but evidence from many countries suggests that minimum wages reduce the jobs available to low-skill workers.
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).
2010-02-08
... capital and reserve requirements to be issued by order or regulation with respect to a product or activity... minimum capital requirements. Section 1362(a) establishes a minimum capital level for the Enterprises... entities required under this section.\\6\\ \\3\\ The Bank Act's current minimum capital requirements apply to...
Heart failure is a condition in which the heart can't pump enough blood to meet the body's needs. Heart failure does not mean that your heart has stopped ... and shortness of breath Common causes of heart failure are coronary artery disease, high blood pressure and ...
Irreversibility and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....
Probability and stochastic modeling
Rotar, Vladimir I
2012-01-01
Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.
2014-01-01
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Transition probabilities for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Y.K.
1980-01-01
Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasch, Vibeke
2002-01-01
Most studies focusing on contraceptive failure in relation to pregnancy have focused on contraceptive failure among women having induced abortions, thereby neglecting those women who, despite contraceptive failure, accept the pregnancy and intend to carry the fetus to term. To get a more complete...... picture of the problem of contraceptive failure, this study focuses on contraceptive failure among women with diverse pregnancy outcomes. In all, 3520 pregnant women attending Odense University Hospital were included: 373 had induced abortions, 435 had spontaneous abortions, 97 had ectopic pregnancies......, and 2614 received antenatal care. The variables studied comprise age, partner relationship, number of births, occupational and economical situation, and contraceptive use.Contraceptive failure, defined as contraceptive use (condom, diaphragm, IUD, oral contraception, or another modern method...
McMurray, John; Ponikowski, Piotr
2011-01-01
Heart failure occurs in 3% to 4% of adults aged over 65 years, usually as a consequence of coronary artery disease or hypertension, and causes breathlessness, effort intolerance, fluid retention, and increased mortality. The 5-year mortality in people with systolic heart failure ranges from 25% to 75%, often owing to sudden death following ventricular arrhythmia. Risks of cardiovascular events are increased in people with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) or heart failure.
Contributions to quantum probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-01-01
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Waste Package Misload Probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knudsen, J.K.
2001-01-01
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a
Probability theory and applications
Hsu, Elton P
1999-01-01
This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Model uncertainty and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parry, G.W.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example
Retrocausality and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
On the relationship between stress intensity factor (K) and minimum ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Studies on crack-tip plastic zones are of fundamental importance in describing the process of failure and in formulating various fracture criteria. Minimum plastic zone radius (MPZR) theory is widely used in prediction of crack initiation angle in mixed mode fracture analysis of engineering materials. In this study, shape and ...
Probability mapping of contaminants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)
1994-04-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).
Probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.
1994-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)
Probability of causation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jose, D.E.
1988-01-01
Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice
Generalized Probability Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandre Souto Martinez
2009-01-01
Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.
2014-06-30
precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux
Probable maximum flood control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.
1991-11-01
This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility
... Other diseases. Chronic diseases — such as diabetes, HIV, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, or a buildup of iron (hemochromatosis) or ... transplantation or support with a ventricular assist device. Prevention The key to preventing heart failure is to ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Seung-Ie [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: yangsione@dreamwiz.com; Frangopol, Dan M. [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: dan.frangopol@colorado.edu; Kawakami, Yoriko [Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation, Kobe Maintenance Department, 16-1 Shinko-cho Chuo-ku Kobe City, Hyogo, 650-0041 (Japan)]. E-mail: yoriko-kawakami@hepc.go.jp; Neves, Luis C. [Department of Civil, Enviromental, and Architectural Enginnering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428 (United States)]. E-mail: lneves@civil.uminho.pt
2006-06-15
In the last decade, it became clear that life-cycle cost analysis of existing civil infrastructure must be used to optimally manage the growing number of aging and deteriorating structures. The uncertainties associated with deteriorating structures require the use of probabilistic methods to properly evaluate their lifetime performance. In this paper, the deterioration and the effect of maintenance actions are analyzed considering the performance of existing structures characterized by lifetime functions. These functions allow, in a simple manner, the consideration of the effect of aging on the decrease of the probability of survival of a structure, as well as the effect of maintenance actions. Models for the effects of proactive and reactive preventive maintenance, and essential maintenance actions are presented. Since the probability of failure is different from zero during the entire service life of a deteriorating structure and depends strongly on the maintenance strategy, the cost of failure is included in this analysis. The failure of one component in a structure does not usually lead to failure of the structure and, as a result, the safety of existing structures must be analyzed using a system reliability framework. The optimization consists of minimizing the sum of the cumulative maintenance and expected failure cost during the prescribed time horizon. Two examples of application of the proposed methodology are presented. In the first example, the sum of the maintenance and failure costs of a bridge in Colorado is minimized considering essential maintenance only and a fixed minimum acceptable probability of failure. In the second example, the expected lifetime cost, including maintenance and expected failure costs, of a multi-girder bridge is minimized considering reactive preventive maintenance actions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Seung-Ie; Frangopol, Dan M.; Kawakami, Yoriko; Neves, Luis C.
2006-01-01
In the last decade, it became clear that life-cycle cost analysis of existing civil infrastructure must be used to optimally manage the growing number of aging and deteriorating structures. The uncertainties associated with deteriorating structures require the use of probabilistic methods to properly evaluate their lifetime performance. In this paper, the deterioration and the effect of maintenance actions are analyzed considering the performance of existing structures characterized by lifetime functions. These functions allow, in a simple manner, the consideration of the effect of aging on the decrease of the probability of survival of a structure, as well as the effect of maintenance actions. Models for the effects of proactive and reactive preventive maintenance, and essential maintenance actions are presented. Since the probability of failure is different from zero during the entire service life of a deteriorating structure and depends strongly on the maintenance strategy, the cost of failure is included in this analysis. The failure of one component in a structure does not usually lead to failure of the structure and, as a result, the safety of existing structures must be analyzed using a system reliability framework. The optimization consists of minimizing the sum of the cumulative maintenance and expected failure cost during the prescribed time horizon. Two examples of application of the proposed methodology are presented. In the first example, the sum of the maintenance and failure costs of a bridge in Colorado is minimized considering essential maintenance only and a fixed minimum acceptable probability of failure. In the second example, the expected lifetime cost, including maintenance and expected failure costs, of a multi-girder bridge is minimized considering reactive preventive maintenance actions
Bounding probabilistic safety assessment probabilities by reality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fragola, J.R.; Shooman, M.L.
1991-01-01
The investigation of the failure in systems where failure is a rare event makes the continual comparisons between the developed probabilities and empirical evidence difficult. The comparison of the predictions of rare event risk assessments with historical reality is essential to prevent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) predictions from drifting into fantasy. One approach to performing such comparisons is to search out and assign probabilities to natural events which, while extremely rare, have a basis in the history of natural phenomena or human activities. For example the Segovian aqueduct and some of the Roman fortresses in Spain have existed for several millennia and in many cases show no physical signs of earthquake damage. This evidence could be used to bound the probability of earthquakes above a certain magnitude to less than 10 -3 per year. On the other hand, there is evidence that some repetitive actions can be performed with extremely low historical probabilities when operators are properly trained and motivated, and sufficient warning indicators are provided. The point is not that low probability estimates are impossible, but continual reassessment of the analysis assumptions, and a bounding of the analysis predictions by historical reality. This paper reviews the probabilistic predictions of PSA in this light, attempts to develop, in a general way, the limits which can be historically established and the consequent bounds that these limits place upon the predictions, and illustrates the methodology used in computing such limits. Further, the paper discusses the use of empirical evidence and the requirement for disciplined systematic approaches within the bounds of reality and the associated impact on PSA probabilistic estimates
Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng
1993-01-01
A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)
Probability and containment of turbine missiles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yeh, G.C.K.
1976-01-01
With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)
Importance analysis for the systems with common cause failures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pan Zhijie; Nonaka, Yasuo
1995-01-01
This paper extends the importance analysis technique to the research field of common cause failures to evaluate the structure importance, probability importance, and β-importance for the systems with common cause failures. These importance measures would help reliability analysts to limit the common cause failure analysis framework and find efficient defence strategies against common cause failures
Probability and rational choice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Botting
2014-05-01
Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.
Uncertainty analysis with statistically correlated failure data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Modarres, M.; Dezfuli, H.; Roush, M.L.
1987-01-01
Likelihood of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree or sequences of an event tree is estimated from the failure probability of components that constitute the events of the fault/event tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. At present most fault tree calculations are based on uncorrelated component failure data. This chapter describes a methodology for assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees or frequency of occurrence of event tree sequences when event failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. Moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting the Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program, CORRELATE, was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. (author)
COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.
1979-01-01
1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions
Age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, J.H.; Qu, Jian; Zuo, Ming J.
2016-01-01
In most of literatures of age replacement policy, failures before planned replacement age can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired based on the types of failures, cost for repairs and so on. In this paper, we propose age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability. The proposed policy incorporates the case that such intermittent failure can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired with random probabilities. The mathematical formulas of the expected cost rate per unit time are derived for both the infinite-horizon case and the one-replacement-cycle case. For each case, we show that the optimal replacement age exists and is finite. - Highlights: • We propose a new age replacement policy with random probability of perfect repair. • We develop the expected cost per unit time. • We discuss the optimal age for replacement minimizing the expected cost rate.
A short walk in quantum probability
Hudson, Robin
2018-04-01
This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas. This article is part of the themed issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.
A short walk in quantum probability.
Hudson, Robin
2018-04-28
This is a personal survey of aspects of quantum probability related to the Heisenberg commutation relation for canonical pairs. Using the failure, in general, of non-negativity of the Wigner distribution for canonical pairs to motivate a more satisfactory quantum notion of joint distribution, we visit a central limit theorem for such pairs and a resulting family of quantum planar Brownian motions which deform the classical planar Brownian motion, together with a corresponding family of quantum stochastic areas.This article is part of the themed issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).
Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith
2013-01-01
Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
Ross, Sheldon
2014-01-01
A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jakobsen, K. P.; Burcharth, H. F.; Ibsen, Lars Bo
1999-01-01
The present appendix contains the derivation of ten different limit state equations divided on three different failure modes. Five of the limit state equations can be used independently of the characteristics of the subsoil, whereas the remaining five can be used for either drained or undrained s...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xing Liudong; Levitin, Gregory
2010-01-01
This paper considers the reliability analysis of binary-state systems, subject to propagated failures with global effect, and failure isolation phenomena. Propagated failures with global effect are common-cause failures originated from a component of a system/subsystem causing the failure of the entire system/subsystem. Failure isolation occurs when the failure of one component (referred to as a trigger component) causes other components (referred to as dependent components) within the same system to become isolated from the system. On the one hand, failure isolation makes the isolated dependent components unusable; on the other hand, it prevents the propagation of failures originated from those dependent components. However, the failure isolation effect does not exist if failures originated in the dependent components already propagate globally before the trigger component fails. In other words, there exists a competition in the time domain between the failure of the trigger component that causes failure isolation and propagated failures originated from the dependent components. This paper presents a combinatorial method for the reliability analysis of systems subject to such competing propagated failures and failure isolation effect. Based on the total probability theorem, the proposed method is analytical, exact, and has no limitation on the type of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the basics and advantages of the proposed method.
Minimum Q Electrically Small Antennas
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kim, O. S.
2012-01-01
Theoretically, the minimum radiation quality factor Q of an isolated resonance can be achieved in a spherical electrically small antenna by combining TM1m and TE1m spherical modes, provided that the stored energy in the antenna spherical volume is totally suppressed. Using closed-form expressions...... for a multiarm spherical helix antenna confirm the theoretical predictions. For example, a 4-arm spherical helix antenna with a magnetic-coated perfectly electrically conducting core (ka=0.254) exhibits the Q of 0.66 times the Chu lower bound, or 1.25 times the minimum Q....
A brief introduction to probability.
Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio
2018-02-01
The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.
Minimum wage hikes and the wage growth of low-wage workers
Joanna K Swaffield
2012-01-01
This paper presents difference-in-differences estimates of the impact of the British minimum wage on the wage growth of low-wage employees. Estimates of the probability of low-wage employees receiving positive wage growth have been significantly increased by the minimum wage upratings or hikes. However, whether the actual wage growth of these workers has been significantly raised or not depends crucially on the magnitude of the minimum wage hike considered. Findings are consistent with employ...
... Introduction Types of Heart Failure Classes of Heart Failure Heart Failure in Children Advanced Heart Failure • Causes and ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Heart Failure Questions to Ask Your Doctor Use these questions ...
... Introduction Types of Heart Failure Classes of Heart Failure Heart Failure in Children Advanced Heart Failure • Causes and ... and Advanced HF • Tools and Resources • Personal Stories Heart Failure Questions to Ask Your Doctor Use these questions ...
Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti
2017-01-01
A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.
Fermat and the Minimum Principle
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Arguably, least action and minimum principles were offered or applied much earlier. This (or these) principle(s) is/are among the fundamental, basic, unifying or organizing ones used to describe a variety of natural phenomena. It considers the amount of energy expended in performing a given action to be the least required ...
Coupling between minimum scattering antennas
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, J.; Lessow, H; Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans
1974-01-01
Coupling between minimum scattering antennas (MSA's) is investigated by the coupling theory developed by Wasylkiwskyj and Kahn. Only rotationally symmetric power patterns are considered, and graphs of relative mutual impedance are presented as a function of distance and pattern parameters. Crossed...
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iorio, A.F.; Crespi, J.C.
1987-01-01
After ten years of operation at the Atucha I Nuclear Power Station a gear belonging to a pressurized heavy water reactor refuelling machine, failed. The gear box was used to operate the inlet-outlet heavy-water valve of the machine. Visual examination of the gear device showed an absence of lubricant and that several gear teeth were broken at the root. Motion was transmitted with a speed-reducing device with controlled adjustable times in order to produce a proper fitness of the valve closure. The aim of this paper is to discuss the results of the gear failure analysis in order to recommend the proper solution to prevent further failures. (Author)
Fast converging minimum probability of error neural network receivers for DS-CDMA communications.
Matyjas, John D; Psaromiligkos, Ioannis N; Batalama, Stella N; Medley, Michael J
2004-03-01
We consider a multilayer perceptron neural network (NN) receiver architecture for the recovery of the information bits of a direct-sequence code-division-multiple-access (DS-CDMA) user. We develop a fast converging adaptive training algorithm that minimizes the bit-error rate (BER) at the output of the receiver. The adaptive algorithm has three key features: i) it incorporates the BER, i.e., the ultimate performance evaluation measure, directly into the learning process, ii) it utilizes constraints that are derived from the properties of the optimum single-user decision boundary for additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) multiple-access channels, and iii) it embeds importance sampling (IS) principles directly into the receiver optimization process. Simulation studies illustrate the BER performance of the proposed scheme.
Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities
Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.
2014-09-01
Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik (1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill (1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims: We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods: We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit. One is a numerical averaging of the Wetherill formula; the next is a Monte Carlo super-sizing method using the target's Hill sphere. The third uses extensive minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) calculations for a Monte Carlo sampling of potentially impacting orbits, along with calculations of the relevant interval for the timing of the encounter allowing collision. Numerical experiments are carried out for an intercomparison of the methods and to scrutinize their behavior near the singularities (zero relative inclination and equal perihelion distances). Results: We find an excellent agreement between all methods in the general case, while there appear large differences in the immediate vicinity of the singularities. With respect to the MOID method, which is the only one that does not involve simplifying assumptions and approximations, the Wetherill averaging impact probability departs by diverging toward
Prediction and probability in sciences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.
1998-01-01
This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Poisson Processes in Free Probability
An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu
2015-01-01
We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.
Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.
1980-09-01
A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.
The impact of the minimum wage on health.
Andreyeva, Elena; Ukert, Benjamin
2018-03-07
This study evaluates the effect of minimum wage on risky health behaviors, healthcare access, and self-reported health. We use data from the 1993-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and employ a difference-in-differences strategy that utilizes time variation in new minimum wage laws across U.S. states. Results suggest that the minimum wage increases the probability of being obese and decreases daily fruit and vegetable intake, but also decreases days with functional limitations while having no impact on healthcare access. Subsample analyses reveal that the increase in weight and decrease in fruit and vegetable intake are driven by the older population, married, and whites. The improvement in self-reported health is especially strong among non-whites, females, and married.
Quantum mechanics the theoretical minimum
Susskind, Leonard
2014-01-01
From the bestselling author of The Theoretical Minimum, an accessible introduction to the math and science of quantum mechanicsQuantum Mechanics is a (second) book for anyone who wants to learn how to think like a physicist. In this follow-up to the bestselling The Theoretical Minimum, physicist Leonard Susskind and data engineer Art Friedman offer a first course in the theory and associated mathematics of the strange world of quantum mechanics. Quantum Mechanics presents Susskind and Friedman’s crystal-clear explanations of the principles of quantum states, uncertainty and time dependence, entanglement, and particle and wave states, among other topics. An accessible but rigorous introduction to a famously difficult topic, Quantum Mechanics provides a tool kit for amateur scientists to learn physics at their own pace.
Understanding failures in petascale computers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schroeder, Bianca; Gibson, Garth A
2007-01-01
With petascale computers only a year or two away there is a pressing need to anticipate and compensate for a probable increase in failure and application interruption rates. Researchers, designers and integrators have available to them far too little detailed information on the failures and interruptions that even smaller terascale computers experience. The information that is available suggests that application interruptions will become far more common in the coming decade, and the largest applications may surrender large fractions of the computer's resources to taking checkpoints and restarting from a checkpoint after an interruption. This paper reviews sources of failure information for compute clusters and storage systems, projects failure rates and the corresponding decrease in application effectiveness, and discusses coping strategies such as application-level checkpoint compression and system level process-pairs fault-tolerance for supercomputing. The need for a public repository for detailed failure and interruption records is particularly concerning, as projections from one architectural family of machines to another are widely disputed. To this end, this paper introduces the Computer Failure Data Repository and issues a call for failure history data to publish in it
Understanding the Minimum Wage: Issues and Answers.
Employment Policies Inst. Foundation, Washington, DC.
This booklet, which is designed to clarify facts regarding the minimum wage's impact on marketplace economics, contains a total of 31 questions and answers pertaining to the following topics: relationship between minimum wages and poverty; impacts of changes in the minimum wage on welfare reform; and possible effects of changes in the minimum wage…
2010-01-01
... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Minimum wage. 551.301 Section 551.301... FAIR LABOR STANDARDS ACT Minimum Wage Provisions Basic Provision § 551.301 Minimum wage. (a)(1) Except... employees wages at rates not less than the minimum wage specified in section 6(a)(1) of the Act for all...
CHF - tests; Congestive heart failure - tests; Cardiomyopathy - tests; HF - tests ... the best test to: Identify which type of heart failure (systolic, diastolic, valvular) Monitor your heart failure and ...
Clinical Investigation of Treatment Failure in Type 2 Diabetic ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
HP
contributory factors in treatment failure in type 2 diabetic patients taking metformin and glibenclamide in a tertiary ... that took metformin and glibenclamide for a minimum of 1 year were examined. Patients ..... obesity in adults and children.
Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko
2017-01-01
Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Introduction to probability with Mathematica
Hastings, Kevin J
2009-01-01
Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...
Linear positivity and virtual probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hartle, James B.
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics
Probabilistic analysis of ''common mode failures''
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Easterling, R.G.
1978-01-01
Common mode failure is a topic of considerable interest in reliability and safety analyses of nuclear reactors. Common mode failures are often discussed in terms of examples: two systems fail simultaneously due to an external event such as an earthquake; two components in redundant channels fail because of a common manufacturing defect; two systems fail because a component common to both fails; the failure of one system increases the stress on other systems and they fail. The common thread running through these is a dependence of some sort--statistical or physical--among multiple failure events. However, the nature of the dependence is not the same in all these examples. An attempt is made to model situations, such as the above examples, which have been termed ''common mode failures.'' In doing so, it is found that standard probability concepts and terms, such as statistically dependent and independent events, and conditional and unconditional probabilities, suffice. Thus, it is proposed that the term ''common mode failures'' be dropped, at least from technical discussions of these problems. A corollary is that the complementary term, ''random failures,'' should also be dropped. The mathematical model presented may not cover all situations which have been termed ''common mode failures,'' but provides insight into the difficulty of obtaining estimates of the probabilities of these events
A procedure for estimation of pipe break probabilities due to IGSCC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bergman, M.; Brickstad, B.; Nilsson, F.
1998-06-01
A procedure has been developed for estimation of the failure probability of welds joints in nuclear piping susceptible to intergranular stress corrosion cracking. The procedure aims at a robust and rapid estimate of the failure probability for a specific weld with known stress state. Random properties are taken into account of the crack initiation rate, the initial crack length, the in-service inspection efficiency and the leak rate. A computer realization of the procedure has been developed for user friendly applications by design engineers. Some examples are considered to investigate the sensitivity of the failure probability to different input quantities. (au)
Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines
Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.
2011-01-01
Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433
Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grandy, W. T. Jr.
2009-01-01
In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.
Heart failure - home monitoring
... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000113.htm Heart failure - home monitoring To use the sharing features on ... your high blood pressure Fast food tips Heart failure - discharge Heart failure - fluids and diuretics Heart failure - what to ...
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Reliability model for common mode failures in redundant safety systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, K.N.
1974-12-01
A method is presented for computing the reliability of redundant safety systems, considering both independent and common mode type failures. The model developed for the computation is a simple extension of classical reliability theory. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated with the use of an example. The probability of failure of a typical diesel-generator emergency power system is computed based on data obtained from U. S. diesel-generator operating experience. The results are compared with reliability predictions based on the assumption that all failures are independent. The comparison shows a significant increase in the probability of redundant system failure, when common failure modes are considered. (U.S.)
Probability and uncertainty in nuclear safety decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pate-Cornell, M.E.
1986-01-01
In this paper, we examine some problems posed by the use of probabilities in Nuclear Safety decisions. We discuss some of the theoretical difficulties due to the collective nature of regulatory decisions, and, in particular, the calibration and the aggregation of risk information (e.g., experts opinions). We argue that, if one chooses numerical safety goals as a regulatory basis, one can reduce the constraints to an individual safety goal and a cost-benefit criterion. We show the relevance of risk uncertainties in this kind of regulatory framework. We conclude that, whereas expected values of future failure frequencies are adequate to show compliance with economic constraints, the use of a fractile (e.g., 95%) to be specified by the regulatory agency is justified to treat hazard uncertainties for the individual safety goal. (orig.)
Collection of offshore human error probability data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basra, Gurpreet; Kirwan, Barry
1998-01-01
Accidents such as Piper Alpha have increased concern about the effects of human errors in complex systems. Such accidents can in theory be predicted and prevented by risk assessment, and in particular human reliability assessment (HRA), but HRA ideally requires qualitative and quantitative human error data. A research initiative at the University of Birmingham led to the development of CORE-DATA, a Computerised Human Error Data Base. This system currently contains a reasonably large number of human error data points, collected from a variety of mainly nuclear-power related sources. This article outlines a recent offshore data collection study, concerned with collecting lifeboat evacuation data. Data collection methods are outlined and a selection of human error probabilities generated as a result of the study are provided. These data give insights into the type of errors and human failure rates that could be utilised to support offshore risk analyses
Logic, probability, and human reasoning.
Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P
2015-04-01
This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Free probability and random matrices
Mingo, James A
2017-01-01
This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.
Introduction to probability and measure
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Acacio de Barros, J.
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)
2012-12-18
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
The Probabilities of Unique Events
2012-08-30
Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the
Probability Matching, Fast and Slow
Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
2014-01-01
A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...
The minimum yield in channeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uguzzoni, A.; Gaertner, K.; Lulli, G.; Andersen, J.U.
2000-01-01
A first estimate of the minimum yield was obtained from Lindhard's theory, with the assumption of a statistical equilibrium in the transverse phase-space of channeled particles guided by a continuum axial potential. However, computer simulations have shown that this estimate should be corrected by a fairly large factor, C (approximately equal to 2.5), called the Barrett factor. We have shown earlier that the concept of a statistical equilibrium can be applied to understand this result, with the introduction of a constraint in phase-space due to planar channeling of axially channeled particles. Here we present an extended test of these ideas on the basis of computer simulation of the trajectories of 2 MeV α particles in Si. In particular, the gradual trend towards a full statistical equilibrium is studied. We also discuss the introduction of this modification of standard channeling theory into descriptions of the multiple scattering of channeled particles (dechanneling) by a master equation and show that the calculated minimum yields are in very good agreement with the results of a full computer simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kwee, Regina
2010-01-01
Since the restart of the LHC in November 2009, ATLAS has collected inelastic pp collisions to perform first measurements on charged particle densities. These measurements will help to constrain various models describing phenomenologically soft parton interactions. Understanding the trigger efficiencies for different event types are therefore crucial to minimize any possible bias in the event selection. ATLAS uses two main minimum bias triggers, featuring complementary detector components and trigger levels. While a hardware based first trigger level situated in the forward regions with 2.2 < |η| < 3.8 has been proven to select pp-collisions very efficiently, the Inner Detector based minimum bias trigger uses a random seed on filled bunches and central tracking detectors for the event selection. Both triggers were essential for the analysis of kinematic spectra of charged particles. Their performance and trigger efficiency measurements as well as studies on possible bias sources will be presented. We also highlight the advantage of these triggers for particle correlation analyses. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nyman, R.; Hegedus, D.; Tomic, B.; Lydell, B.
1997-12-01
This report summarizes results and insights from the final phase of a R and D project on piping reliability sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The technical scope includes the development of an analysis framework for estimating piping reliability parameters from service data. The R and D has produced a large database on the operating experience with piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It covers the period 1970 to the present. The scope of the work emphasized pipe failures (i.e., flaws/cracks, leaks and ruptures) in light water reactors (LWRs). Pipe failures are rare events. A data reduction format was developed to ensure that homogenous data sets are prepared from scarce service data. This data reduction format distinguishes between reliability attributes and reliability influence factors. The quantitative results of the analysis of service data are in the form of conditional probabilities of pipe rupture given failures (flaws/cracks, leaks or ruptures) and frequencies of pipe failures. Finally, the R and D by SKI produced an analysis framework in support of practical applications of service data in PSA. This, multi-purpose framework, termed 'PFCA'-Pipe Failure Cause and Attribute- defines minimum requirements on piping reliability analysis. The application of service data should reflect the requirements of an application. Together with raw data summaries, this analysis framework enables the development of a prior and a posterior pipe rupture probability distribution. The framework supports LOCA frequency estimation, steam line break frequency estimation, as well as the development of strategies for optimized in-service inspection strategies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nyman, R [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hegedus, D; Tomic, B [ENCONET Consulting GesmbH, Vienna (Austria); Lydell, B [RSA Technologies, Vista, CA (United States)
1997-12-01
This report summarizes results and insights from the final phase of a R and D project on piping reliability sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI). The technical scope includes the development of an analysis framework for estimating piping reliability parameters from service data. The R and D has produced a large database on the operating experience with piping systems in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It covers the period 1970 to the present. The scope of the work emphasized pipe failures (i.e., flaws/cracks, leaks and ruptures) in light water reactors (LWRs). Pipe failures are rare events. A data reduction format was developed to ensure that homogenous data sets are prepared from scarce service data. This data reduction format distinguishes between reliability attributes and reliability influence factors. The quantitative results of the analysis of service data are in the form of conditional probabilities of pipe rupture given failures (flaws/cracks, leaks or ruptures) and frequencies of pipe failures. Finally, the R and D by SKI produced an analysis framework in support of practical applications of service data in PSA. This, multi-purpose framework, termed `PFCA`-Pipe Failure Cause and Attribute- defines minimum requirements on piping reliability analysis. The application of service data should reflect the requirements of an application. Together with raw data summaries, this analysis framework enables the development of a prior and a posterior pipe rupture probability distribution. The framework supports LOCA frequency estimation, steam line break frequency estimation, as well as the development of strategies for optimized in-service inspection strategies. 63 refs, 30 tabs, 22 figs.
Probability of inadvertent operation of electrical components in harsh environments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knoll, A.
1989-01-01
Harsh environment, which means humidity and high temperature, may and will affect unsealed electrical components by causing leakage ground currents in ungrounded direct current systems. The concern in a nuclear power plant is that such harsh environment conditions could cause inadvertent operation of normally deenergized components, which may have a safety-related isolation function. Harsh environment is a common cause failure, and one way to approach the problem is to assume that all the unsealed electrical components will simultaneously and inadvertently energize as a result of the environmental common cause failure. This assumption is unrealistically conservative. Test results indicated that insulating resistences of any terminal block in harsh environments have a random distribution in the range of 1 to 270 kΩ, with a mean value ∼59 kΩ. The objective of this paper is to evaluate a realistic conditional failure probability for inadvertent operation of electrical components in harsh environments. This value will be used thereafter in probabilistic safety evaluations of harsh environment events and will replace both the overconservative common cause probability of 1 and the random failure probability used for mild environments
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection
Lao, Dong
2017-11-09
We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Due to unreliability of motion between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Our method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.
Approximating the minimum cycle mean
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krishnendu Chatterjee
2013-07-01
Full Text Available We consider directed graphs where each edge is labeled with an integer weight and study the fundamental algorithmic question of computing the value of a cycle with minimum mean weight. Our contributions are twofold: (1 First we show that the algorithmic question is reducible in O(n^2 time to the problem of a logarithmic number of min-plus matrix multiplications of n-by-n matrices, where n is the number of vertices of the graph. (2 Second, when the weights are nonnegative, we present the first (1 + ε-approximation algorithm for the problem and the running time of our algorithm is ilde(O(n^ω log^3(nW/ε / ε, where O(n^ω is the time required for the classic n-by-n matrix multiplication and W is the maximum value of the weights.
Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection
Lao, Dong
2017-01-08
We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Due to unreliability of motion between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Our method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.
Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection
Lao, Dong; Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh
2017-01-01
We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Due to unreliability of motion between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Our method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Cranioectodermal Dysplasia : A Probable Ciliopathy
Konstantinidou, Anastasia E.; Fryssira, Helen; Sifakis, Stavros; Karadimas, Charalampos; Kaminopetros, Petros; Agrogiannis, Georgios; Velonis, Stylianos; Nikkels, Peter G. J.; Patsouris, Efstratios
2009-01-01
Cranioectodermal dysplasia (CED), also known as Sensenbrenner syndrome, is a rare autosomal recessive genetic disorder characterized by typical craniofacial, skeletal and ectodermal defects, and tubulointerstitial nephritis leading to early end-stage renal failure. We report on a new familial case
[Storage of plant protection products in farms: minimum safety requirements].
Dutto, Moreno; Alfonzo, Santo; Rubbiani, Maristella
2012-01-01
Failure to comply with requirements for proper storage and use of pesticides in farms can be extremely hazardous and the risk of accidents involving farm workers, other persons and even animals is high. There are still wide differences in the interpretation of the concept of "securing or making safe", by workers in this sector. One of the critical points detected, particularly in the fruit sector, is the establishment of an adequate storage site for plant protection products. The definition of "safe storage of pesticides" is still unclear despite the recent enactment of Legislative Decree 81/2008 regulating health and work safety in Italy. In addition, there are no national guidelines setting clear minimum criteria for storage of plant protection products in farms. The authors, on the basis of their professional experience and through analysis of recent legislation, establish certain minimum safety standards for storage of pesticides in farms.
Youth minimum wages and youth employment
Marimpi, Maria; Koning, Pierre
2018-01-01
This paper performs a cross-country level analysis on the impact of the level of specific youth minimum wages on the labor market performance of young individuals. We use information on the use and level of youth minimum wages, as compared to the level of adult minimum wages as well as to the median
Do Some Workers Have Minimum Wage Careers?
Carrington, William J.; Fallick, Bruce C.
2001-01-01
Most workers who begin their careers in minimum-wage jobs eventually gain more experience and move on to higher paying jobs. However, more than 8% of workers spend at least half of their first 10 working years in minimum wage jobs. Those more likely to have minimum wage careers are less educated, minorities, women with young children, and those…
Does the Minimum Wage Affect Welfare Caseloads?
Page, Marianne E.; Spetz, Joanne; Millar, Jane
2005-01-01
Although minimum wages are advocated as a policy that will help the poor, few studies have examined their effect on poor families. This paper uses variation in minimum wages across states and over time to estimate the impact of minimum wage legislation on welfare caseloads. We find that the elasticity of the welfare caseload with respect to the…
Minimum income protection in the Netherlands
van Peijpe, T.
2009-01-01
This article offers an overview of the Dutch legal system of minimum income protection through collective bargaining, social security, and statutory minimum wages. In addition to collective agreements, the Dutch statutory minimum wage offers income protection to a small number of workers. Its
Probability theory a foundational course
Pakshirajan, R P
2013-01-01
This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Approximation methods in probability theory
Čekanavičius, Vydas
2016-01-01
This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.
Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winkler, R.L.
1994-01-01
Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Statistical probability tables CALENDF program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ribon, P.
1989-01-01
The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...
An estimation method of system failure frequency using both structure and component failure data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Takaragi, Kazuo; Sasaki, Ryoichi; Shingai, Sadanori; Tominaga, Kenji
1981-01-01
In recent years, the importance of reliability analysis is appreciated for large systems such as nuclear power plants. A reliability analysis method is described for a whole system, using structure failure data for its main working subsystem and component failure data for its safety protection subsystem. The subsystem named main working system operates normally, and the subsystem named safety protection system acts as standby or protection. Thus the main and the protection systems are given mutually different failure data; then, between the subsystems, there exists common mode failure, i.e. the component failure affecting the reliability of both two. A calculation formula for sytem failure frequency is first derived. Then, a calculation method with digraphs is proposed for conditional system failure probability. Finally the results of numerical calculation are given for the purpose of explanation. (J.P.N.)
Minimum wage development in the Russian Federation
Bolsheva, Anna
2012-01-01
The aim of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of the minimum wage policy at the national level in Russia and its impact on living standards in the country. The analysis showed that the national minimum wage in Russia does not serve its original purpose of protecting the lowest wage earners and has no substantial effect on poverty reduction. The national subsistence minimum is too low and cannot be considered an adequate criterion for the setting of the minimum wage. The minimum wage d...
Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts
Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
2015-10-01
The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.
Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.
Pfeiffer, Paul E.
This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics
Field, Mike
2012-01-01
It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…
Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slunga, R.
1979-03-01
A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)
DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gintautas, Tomas
2015-01-01
A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...
Risk estimation using probability machines
2014-01-01
Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306
Probability and statistics: A reminder
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clement, B.
2013-01-01
The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)
Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1998-01-01
We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...
On probability-possibility transformations
Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad
1992-01-01
Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.
Minimum relative entropy, Bayes and Kapur
Woodbury, Allan D.
2011-04-01
The focus of this paper is to illustrate important philosophies on inversion and the similarly and differences between Bayesian and minimum relative entropy (MRE) methods. The development of each approach is illustrated through the general-discrete linear inverse. MRE differs from both Bayes and classical statistical methods in that knowledge of moments are used as ‘data’ rather than sample values. MRE like Bayes, presumes knowledge of a prior probability distribution and produces the posterior pdf itself. MRE attempts to produce this pdf based on the information provided by new moments. It will use moments of the prior distribution only if new data on these moments is not available. It is important to note that MRE makes a strong statement that the imposed constraints are exact and complete. In this way, MRE is maximally uncommitted with respect to unknown information. In general, since input data are known only to within a certain accuracy, it is important that any inversion method should allow for errors in the measured data. The MRE approach can accommodate such uncertainty and in new work described here, previous results are modified to include a Gaussian prior. A variety of MRE solutions are reproduced under a number of assumed moments and these include second-order central moments. Various solutions of Jacobs & van der Geest were repeated and clarified. Menke's weighted minimum length solution was shown to have a basis in information theory, and the classic least-squares estimate is shown as a solution to MRE under the conditions of more data than unknowns and where we utilize the observed data and their associated noise. An example inverse problem involving a gravity survey over a layered and faulted zone is shown. In all cases the inverse results match quite closely the actual density profile, at least in the upper portions of the profile. The similar results to Bayes presented in are a reflection of the fact that the MRE posterior pdf, and its mean
Calculating the albedo characteristics by the method of transmission probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lukhvich, A.A.; Rakhno, I.L.; Rubin, I.E.
1983-01-01
The possibility to use the method of transmission probabilities for calculating the albedo characteristics of homogeneous and heterogeneous zones is studied. The transmission probabilities method is a numerical method for solving the transport equation in the integrated form. All calculations have been conducted as a one-group approximation for the planes and rods with different optical thicknesses and capture-to-scattering ratios. Above calculations for plane and cylindrical geometries have shown the possibility to use the numerical method of transmission probabilities for calculating the albedo characteristics of homogeneous and heterogeneous zones with high accuracy. In this case the computer time consumptions are minimum even with the cylindrical geometry, if the interpolation calculation of characteristics is used for the neutrons of the first path
How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants
Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne
2016-01-01
In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737
Early failure analysis of machining centers: a case study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Jiang Weiwei
2001-01-01
To eliminate the early failures and improve the reliability, nine ex-factory machining centers are traced under field conditions in workshops. Their early failure information throughout the ex-factory run-in test is collected. The field early failure database is constructed based on the collection of field early failure data and the codification of data. Early failure mode and effects analysis is performed to indicate the weak subsystem of a machining center or the troublemaker. The distribution of the time between early failures is analyzed and the optimal ex-factory run-in test time for machining center that may expose sufficiently the early failures and cost minimum is discussed. Suggestions how to arrange ex-factory run-in test and how to take actions to reduce early failures for machining center is proposed
Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection
Lao, Dong
2017-05-14
This thesis presents a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves, at some unknown time, differently than the “background” motion, which can be induced from camera motion. The goal of proposed method is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Since motion estimation can be unreliable between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Observing more frames before declaring a detection may lead to a more accurate detection and segmentation, since more motion may be observed leading to a stronger motion cue. However, this leads to greater delay. The proposed method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms, defined as declarations of detection before the object moves or incorrect or inaccurate segmentation at the detection time. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.
Evaluation of burst probability for tubes by Weibull distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kao, S.
1975-10-01
The investigations of candidate distributions that best describe the burst pressure failure probability characteristics of nuclear power steam generator tubes has been continued. To date it has been found that the Weibull distribution provides an acceptable fit for the available data from both the statistical and physical viewpoints. The reasons for the acceptability of the Weibull distribution are stated together with the results of tests for the suitability of fit. In exploring the acceptability of the Weibull distribution for the fitting, a graphical method to be called the ''density-gram'' is employed instead of the usual histogram. With this method a more sensible graphical observation on the empirical density may be made for cases where the available data is very limited. Based on these methods estimates of failure pressure are made for the left-tail probabilities
Least-cost failure diagnosis in uncertain reliability systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cox, Louis Anthony; Chiu, Steve Y.; Sun Xiaorong
1996-01-01
In many textbook solutions, for systems failure diagnosis problems studied using reliability theory and artificial intelligence, the prior probabilities of different failure states can be estimated and used to guide the sequential search for failed components after the whole system fails. In practice, however, both the component failure probabilities and the structure function of the system being examined--i.e., the mapping between the states of its components and the state of the system--may not be known with certainty. At best:, the probabilities of different hypothesized system descriptions, each specifying the component failure probabilities and the system's structure function, may be known to a useful approximation, perhaps based on sample data and previous experience. Cost-effective diagnosis of the system's failure state is then a challenging problem. Although the probabilities of component failures are aleatory, uncertainties about these probabilities and about the system structure function are epistemic. This paper examines how to make best use of both epistemic prior probabilities for system descriptions and the information gleaned from costly inspections of component states after the system fails, to minimize the average cost of identifying the failure state. Two approaches are introduced for systems dominated by aleatory uncertainties, one motivated by information theory and the other based on the idea of trying to prove a hypothesis about the identity of the failure state as efficiently as possible. While the general problem of cost-effective failure diagnosis is computationally intractable (NP-hard), both heuristics provide useful approximations on small to moderate sized problems and optimal results for certain common types of reliability systems, including series, parallel, parallel-series, and k-out-of-n systems. A hybrid heuristic that adaptively chooses which heuristic to apply next after any sequence of observations (component test results
CHF - medicines; Congestive heart failure - medicines; Cardiomyopathy - medicines; HF - medicines ... You will need to take most of your heart failure medicines every day. Some medicines are taken ...
XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes
Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo
2015-01-01
This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...
Large deviations and idempotent probability
Puhalskii, Anatolii
2001-01-01
In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Probability matching and strategy availability.
Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta
2010-09-01
Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.
Probability as a Physical Motive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Martin
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (Ã¢Â€ÂœMEPÃ¢Â€Â to the information-theoreticalÃ¢Â€ÂœMaxEntÃ¢Â€Â principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand Ã¢Â€Âœthe adjacentpossibleÃ¢Â€Â as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.
Minimum Additive Waste Stabilization (MAWS)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1994-02-01
In the Minimum Additive Waste Stabilization(MAWS) concept, actual waste streams are utilized as additive resources for vitrification, which may contain the basic components (glass formers and fluxes) for making a suitable glass or glassy slag. If too much glass former is present, then the melt viscosity or temperature will be too high for processing; while if there is too much flux, then the durability may suffer. Therefore, there are optimum combinations of these two important classes of constituents depending on the criteria required. The challenge is to combine these resources in such a way that minimizes the use of non-waste additives yet yields a processable and durable final waste form for disposal. The benefit to this approach is that the volume of the final waste form is minimized (waste loading maximized) since little or no additives are used and vitrification itself results in volume reduction through evaporation of water, combustion of organics, and compaction of the solids into a non-porous glass. This implies a significant reduction in disposal costs due to volume reduction alone, and minimizes future risks/costs due to the long term durability and leach resistance of glass. This is accomplished by using integrated systems that are both cost-effective and produce an environmentally sound waste form for disposal. individual component technologies may include: vitrification; thermal destruction; soil washing; gas scrubbing/filtration; and, ion-exchange wastewater treatment. The particular combination of technologies will depend on the waste streams to be treated. At the heart of MAWS is vitrification technology, which incorporates all primary and secondary waste streams into a final, long-term, stabilized glass wasteform. The integrated technology approach, and view of waste streams as resources, is innovative yet practical to cost effectively treat a broad range of DOE mixed and low-level wastes
CO2 maximum in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ)
Paulmier, Aurélien; Ruiz-Pino, D.; Garcon, V.
2011-01-01
International audience; Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), known as suboxic layers which are mainly localized in the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, have been expanding since the 20th "high CO2" century, probably due to global warming. OMZs are also known to significantly contribute to the oceanic production of N2O, a greenhouse gas (GHG) more efficient than CO2. However, the contribution of the OMZs on the oceanic sources and sinks budget of CO2, the main GHG, still remains to be established. ...
Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning
2015-01-01
accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation
Probability Measures on Groups IX
1989-01-01
The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.
Probability matching and strategy availability
J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
2010-01-01
Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...
System reliability analysis using dominant failure modes identified by selective searching technique
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Dong-Seok; Ok, Seung-Yong; Song, Junho; Koh, Hyun-Moo
2013-01-01
The failure of a redundant structural system is often described by innumerable system failure modes such as combinations or sequences of local failures. An efficient approach is proposed to identify dominant failure modes in the space of random variables, and then perform system reliability analysis to compute the system failure probability. To identify dominant failure modes in the decreasing order of their contributions to the system failure probability, a new simulation-based selective searching technique is developed using a genetic algorithm. The system failure probability is computed by a multi-scale matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method. Lower-scale MSR analyses evaluate the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence. A higher-scale MSR analysis evaluates the system failure probability based on the results of the lower-scale analyses. Three illustrative examples demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach through comparison with existing methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed method skillfully identifies the dominant failure modes, including those neglected by existing approaches. The multi-scale MSR method accurately evaluates the system failure probability with statistical dependence fully considered. The decoupling between the failure mode identification and the system reliability evaluation allows for effective applications to larger structural systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leonetti* Davide
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Standards and guidelines for the fatigue design of riveted connections make use of a stress range-endurance (S-N curve based on the net section stress range regardless of the number and the position of the rivets. Almost all tests on which S-N curves are based, are performed with a minimum number of rivets. However, the number of rivets in a row is expected to increase the fail-safe behaviour of the connection, whereas the number of rows is supposed to decrease the theoretical stress concentration at the critical locations, and hence these aspects are not considered in the S-N curves. This paper presents a numerical model predicting the fatigue life of riveted connections by performing a system reliability analysis on a double cover plated riveted butt joint. The connection is considered in three geometries, with different number of rivets in a row and different number of rows. The stress state in the connection is evaluated using a finite element model in which the friction coefficient and the clamping force in the rivets are considered in a deterministic manner. The probability of failure is evaluated for the main plate, and fatigue failure is assumed to be originating at the sides of the rivet holes, the critical locations, or hot-spots. The notch stress approach is applied to assess the fatigue life, considered to be a stochastic quantity. Unlike other system reliability models available in the literature, the evaluation of the probability of failure takes into account the stochastic dependence between the failures at each critical location modelled as a parallel system, which means considering the change of the state of stress in the connection when a ligament between two rivets fails. A sensitivity study is performed to evaluate the effect of the pretension in the rivet and the friction coefficient on the fatigue life.
Minimum emittance of three-bend achromats
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Xiaoyu; Xu Gang
2012-01-01
The calculation of the minimum emittance of three-bend achromats (TBAs) made by Mathematical software can ignore the actual magnets lattice in the matching condition of dispersion function in phase space. The minimum scaling factors of two kinds of widely used TBA lattices are obtained. Then the relationship between the lengths and the radii of the three dipoles in TBA is obtained and so is the minimum scaling factor, when the TBA lattice achieves its minimum emittance. The procedure of analysis and the results can be widely used in achromats lattices, because the calculation is not restricted by the actual lattice. (authors)
A Pareto-Improving Minimum Wage
Eliav Danziger; Leif Danziger
2014-01-01
This paper shows that a graduated minimum wage, in contrast to a constant minimum wage, can provide a strict Pareto improvement over what can be achieved with an optimal income tax. The reason is that a graduated minimum wage requires high-productivity workers to work more to earn the same income as low-productivity workers, which makes it more difficult for the former to mimic the latter. In effect, a graduated minimum wage allows the low-productivity workers to benefit from second-degree pr...
The minimum wage in the Czech enterprises
Eva Lajtkepová
2010-01-01
Although the statutory minimum wage is not a new category, in the Czech Republic we encounter the definition and regulation of a minimum wage for the first time in the 1990 amendment to Act No. 65/1965 Coll., the Labour Code. The specific amount of the minimum wage and the conditions of its operation were then subsequently determined by government regulation in February 1991. Since that time, the value of minimum wage has been adjusted fifteenth times (the last increase was in January 2007). ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Larbi, M.; Besnier, P.; Pecqueux, B.
2014-01-01
This paper deals with the risk analysis of an EMC default using a statistical approach. It is based on reliability methods from probabilistic engineering mechanics. A computation of probability of failure (i.e. probability of exceeding a threshold) of an induced current by crosstalk is established by taking into account uncertainties on input parameters influencing levels of interference in the context of transmission lines. The study has allowed us to evaluate the probability of failure of the induced current by using reliability methods having a relative low computational cost compared to Monte Carlo simulation. (authors)
Locally Minimum Storage Regenerating Codes in Distributed Cloud Storage Systems
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jing Wang; Wei Luo; Wei Liang; Xiangyang Liu; Xiaodai Dong
2017-01-01
In distributed cloud storage sys-tems, inevitably there exist multiple node fail-ures at the same time. The existing methods of regenerating codes, including minimum storage regenerating (MSR) codes and mini-mum bandwidth regenerating (MBR) codes, are mainly to repair one single or several failed nodes, unable to meet the repair need of distributed cloud storage systems. In this paper, we present locally minimum storage re-generating (LMSR) codes to recover multiple failed nodes at the same time. Specifically, the nodes in distributed cloud storage systems are divided into multiple local groups, and in each local group (4, 2) or (5, 3) MSR codes are constructed. Moreover, the grouping method of storage nodes and the repairing process of failed nodes in local groups are studied. The-oretical analysis shows that LMSR codes can achieve the same storage overhead as MSR codes. Furthermore, we verify by means of simulation that, compared with MSR codes, LMSR codes can reduce the repair bandwidth and disk I/O overhead effectively.
Component fragility data base for reliability and probability studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.; Kassier, M.; Pepper, S.
1989-01-01
Safety-related equipment in a nuclear plant plays a vital role in its proper operation and control, and failure of such equipment due to an earthquake may pose a risk to the safe operation of the plant. Therefore, in order to assess the overall reliability of a plant, the reliability of performance of the equipment should be studied first. The success of a reliability or a probability study depends to a great extent on the data base. To meet this demand, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has formed a test data base relating the seismic capacity of equipment specimens to the earthquake levels. Subsequently, the test data have been analyzed for use in reliability and probability studies. This paper describes the data base and discusses the analysis methods. The final results that can be directly used in plant reliability and probability studies are also presented in this paper
On estimating the fracture probability of nuclear graphite components
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Srinivasan, Makuteswara
2008-01-01
The properties of nuclear grade graphites exhibit anisotropy and could vary considerably within a manufactured block. Graphite strength is affected by the direction of alignment of the constituent coke particles, which is dictated by the forming method, coke particle size, and the size, shape, and orientation distribution of pores in the structure. In this paper, a Weibull failure probability analysis for components is presented using the American Society of Testing Materials strength specification for nuclear grade graphites for core components in advanced high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The risk of rupture (probability of fracture) and survival probability (reliability) of large graphite blocks are calculated for varying and discrete values of service tensile stresses. The limitations in these calculations are discussed from considerations of actual reactor environmental conditions that could potentially degrade the specification properties because of damage due to complex interactions between irradiation, temperature, stress, and variability in reactor operation
A probabilistic approach for RIA fuel failure criteria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlo Vitanza, Dr.
2008-01-01
Substantial experimental data have been produced in support of the definition of the RIA safety limits for water reactor fuels at high burn up. Based on these data, fuel failure enthalpy limits can be derived based on methods having a varying degree of complexity. However, regardless of sophistication, it is unlikely that any deterministic approach would result in perfect predictions of all failure and non failure data obtained in RIA tests. Accordingly, a probabilistic approach is proposed in this paper, where in addition to a best estimate evaluation of the failure enthalpy, a RIA fuel failure probability distribution is defined within an enthalpy band surrounding the best estimate failure enthalpy. The band width and the failure probability distribution within this band are determined on the basis of the whole data set, including failure and non failure data and accounting for the actual scatter of the database. The present probabilistic approach can be used in conjunction with any deterministic model or correlation. For deterministic models or correlations having good prediction capability, the probability distribution will be sharply increasing within a narrow band around the best estimate value. For deterministic predictions of lower quality, instead, the resulting probability distribution will be broad and coarser
[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].
Dinya, E
1998-04-26
The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.
Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique
Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.
2012-12-01
Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model
Probability for Weather and Climate
Smith, L. A.
2013-12-01
Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of
... Artery Disease Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Advanced Heart Failure Updated:May 9,2017 When heart failure (HF) ... Making This content was last reviewed May 2017. Heart Failure • Home • About Heart Failure • Causes and Risks for ...
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
Probability, statistics, and computational science.
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane
2012-01-01
In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
Wang, Xiaojing; Ning, Qin
2014-01-01
Liver failure is a clinical syndrome of various etiologies, manifesting as jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy and circulatory dysfunction, which result in subsequent multiorgan failure. Clinically, liver failure is classified into four categories: acute, subacute, acute-on-chronic and chronic liver failure. Massive hepatocyte death is considered to be the core event in the development of liver failure, which occurs when the extent of hepatocyte death is beyond the liver regenerative capac...
Hopper, Ingrid; Easton, Kellie
2017-01-01
1. The common symptoms and signs of chronic heart failure are dyspnoea, ankle swelling, raised jugular venous pressure and basal crepitations. Other conditions may be confused with chronic heart failure, including dependent oedema or oedema due to renal or hepatic disease. Shortness of breath may be due to respiratory disease or severe anaemia. Heart failure secondary to lung disease (cor pulmonale) should be distinguished from congestive cardiac failure. Heart failure may also present with l...
Lectures on probability and statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yost, G.P.
1984-09-01
These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another
neutron-Induced Failures in semiconductor Devices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wender, Stephen Arthur [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-03-13
Single Event Effects are a very significant failure mode in modern semiconductor devices that may limit their reliability. Accelerated testing is important for semiconductor industry. Considerable more work is needed in this field to mitigate the problem. Mitigation of this problem will probably come from Physicists and Electrical Engineers working together
Stochastic variational approach to minimum uncertainty states
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Illuminati, F.; Viola, L. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Padova Univ. (Italy)
1995-05-21
We introduce a new variational characterization of Gaussian diffusion processes as minimum uncertainty states. We then define a variational method constrained by kinematics of diffusions and Schroedinger dynamics to seek states of local minimum uncertainty for general non-harmonic potentials. (author)
Zero forcing parameters and minimum rank problems
Barioli, F.; Barrett, W.; Fallat, S.M.; Hall, H.T.; Hogben, L.; Shader, B.L.; Driessche, van den P.; Holst, van der H.
2010-01-01
The zero forcing number Z(G), which is the minimum number of vertices in a zero forcing set of a graph G, is used to study the maximum nullity/minimum rank of the family of symmetric matrices described by G. It is shown that for a connected graph of order at least two, no vertex is in every zero
30 CFR 281.30 - Minimum royalty.
2010-07-01
... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Minimum royalty. 281.30 Section 281.30 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE LEASING OF MINERALS OTHER THAN OIL, GAS, AND SULPHUR IN THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF Financial Considerations § 281.30 Minimum royalty...
New Minimum Wage Research: A Symposium.
Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; And Others
1992-01-01
Includes "Introduction" (Ehrenberg); "Effect of the Minimum Wage [MW] on the Fast-Food Industry" (Katz, Krueger); "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure Effects of the Federal MW" (Card); "Do MWs Reduce Employment?" (Card); "Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages" (Neumark,…
Minimum Wage Effects in the Longer Run
Neumark, David; Nizalova, Olena
2007-01-01
Exposure to minimum wages at young ages could lead to adverse longer-run effects via decreased labor market experience and tenure, and diminished education and training, while beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition. Evidence suggests that as individuals reach their late 20s, they earn less the longer…
RCoronae Borealis at the 2003 light minimum
Kameswara Rao, N.; Lambert, David L.; Shetrone, Matthew D.
2006-08-01
A set of five high-resolution optical spectra of R CrB obtained in 2003 March is discussed. At the time of the first spectrum (March 8), the star was at V = 12.6, a decline of more than six magnitudes. By March 31, the date of the last observation, the star at V = 9.3 was on the recovery to maximum light (V = 6). The 2003 spectra are compared with the extensive collection of spectra from the 1995-1996 minimum presented previously. Spectroscopic features common to the two minima include the familiar ones also seen in spectra of other R Coronae Borealis stars (RCBs) in decline: sharp emission lines of neutral and singly ionized atoms, broad emission lines including HeI, [NII] 6583 Å, Na D and CaII H & K lines, and blueshifted absorption lines of Na D, and KI resonance lines. Prominent differences between the 2003 and 1995-1996 spectra are seen. The broad Na D and Ca H & K lines in 2003 and 1995-1996 are centred approximately on the mean stellar velocity. The 2003 profiles are fit by a single Gaussian, but in 1995-1996 two Gaussians separated by about 200 km s-1 were required. However, the HeI broad emission lines are fit by a single Gaussian at all times; the emitting He and Na-Ca atoms are probably not colocated. The C2 Phillips 2-0 lines were detected as sharp absorption lines and the C2 Swan band lines as sharp emission lines in 2003, but in 1995-1996 the Swan band emission lines were broad and the Phillips lines were undetected. The 2003 spectra show CI sharp emission lines at minimum light with a velocity changing in 5 d by about 20 km s-1 when the velocity of `metal' sharp lines is unchanged; the CI emission may arise from shock-heated gas. Reexamination of spectra obtained at maximum light in 1995 shows extended blue wings to strong lines with the extension dependent on a line's lower excitation potential; this is the signature of a stellar wind, also revealed by published observations of the HeI 10830 Å line at maximum light. Changes in the cores of the
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
Heart failure - surgeries and devices
... surgery; HF - surgery; Intra-aortic balloon pumps - heart failure; IABP - heart failure; Catheter based assist devices - heart failure ... problem may cause heart failure or make heart failure worse. Heart valve surgery may be needed to repair or ...
Maximizing probable oil field profit: uncertainties on well spacing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.
1997-01-01
The influence of uncertainties in field development costs, well costs, lifting costs, selling price, discount factor, and oil field reserves are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on present day worth (PDW), oil field lifetime τ 2/3 , optimum number of wells (OWI), and the minimum (n-) and maximum (n+) number of wells to produce a PDW ≥ O. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainties in PDW, τ 2/3 , OWI, nsub(-) and nsub(+) is also analyzed. Numerical illustrations indicate how the maximum PDW depends on the ranges of parameter values, drawn from probability distributions using Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, the procedure illustrates the relative importance of contributions of individual factors to the total uncertainty, so that one can assess where to place effort to improve ranges of uncertainty; while the volatility of each estimate allows one to determine when such effort is needful. (author)
Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory
Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag
2018-03-01
Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.
Single shell tank sluicing history and failure frequency
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
HERTZEL, J.S.
1998-01-01
This document assesses the potential for failure of the single-shell tanks (SSTs) that are presumably sound and helps to establish the retrieval priorities for these and the assumed leakers. Furthermore, this report examines probabilities of SST failure as a function of age and operational history, and provides a simple statistical summary of historical leak volumes, leak rates, and corrosion factor
Fire behavior simulation in Mediterranean forests using the minimum travel time algorithm
Kostas Kalabokidis; Palaiologos Palaiologou; Mark A. Finney
2014-01-01
Recent large wildfires in Greece exemplify the need for pre-fire burn probability assessment and possible landscape fire flow estimation to enhance fire planning and resource allocation. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm, incorporated as FlamMap's version five module, provide valuable fire behavior functions, while enabling multi-core utilization for the...
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications
Helms, Lester L
2010-01-01
This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process
Limited test data: The choice between confidence limits and inverse probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nichols, P.
1975-01-01
For a unit which has been successfully designed to a high standard of reliability, any test programme of reasonable size will result in only a small number of failures. In these circumstances the failure rate estimated from the tests will depend on the statistical treatment applied. When a large number of units is to be manufactured, an unexpected high failure rate will certainly result in a large number of failures, so it is necessary to guard against optimistic unrepresentative test results by using a confidence limit approach. If only a small number of production units is involved, failures may not occur even with a higher than expected failure rate, and so one may be able to accept a method which allows for the possibility of either optimistic or pessimistic test results, and in this case an inverse probability approach, based on Bayes' theorem, might be used. The paper first draws attention to an apparently significant difference in the numerical results from the two methods, particularly for the overall probability of several units arranged in redundant logic. It then discusses a possible objection to the inverse method, followed by a demonstration that, for a large population and a very reasonable choice of prior probability, the inverse probability and confidence limit methods give the same numerical result. Finally, it is argued that a confidence limit approach is overpessimistic when a small number of production units is involved, and that both methods give the same answer for a large population. (author)
Minimum emittance in TBA and MBA lattices
Xu, Gang; Peng, Yue-Mei
2015-03-01
For reaching a small emittance in a modern light source, triple bend achromats (TBA), theoretical minimum emittance (TME) and even multiple bend achromats (MBA) have been considered. This paper derived the necessary condition for achieving minimum emittance in TBA and MBA theoretically, where the bending angle of inner dipoles has a factor of 31/3 bigger than that of the outer dipoles. Here, we also calculated the conditions attaining the minimum emittance of TBA related to phase advance in some special cases with a pure mathematics method. These results may give some directions on lattice design.
Minimum emittance in TBA and MBA lattices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Gang; Peng Yuemei
2015-01-01
For reaching a small emittance in a modern light source, triple bend achromats (TBA), theoretical minimum emittance (TME) and even multiple bend achromats (MBA) have been considered. This paper derived the necessary condition for achieving minimum emittance in TBA and MBA theoretically, where the bending angle of inner dipoles has a factor of 3 1/3 bigger than that of the outer dipoles. Here, we also calculated the conditions attaining the minimum emittance of TBA related to phase advance in some special cases with a pure mathematics method. These results may give some directions on lattice design. (authors)
Who Benefits from a Minimum Wage Increase?
John W. Lopresti; Kevin J. Mumford
2015-01-01
This paper addresses the question of how a minimum wage increase affects the wages of low-wage workers. Most studies assume that there is a simple mechanical increase in the wage for workers earning a wage between the old and the new minimum wage, with some studies allowing for spillovers to workers with wages just above this range. Rather than assume that the wages of these workers would have remained constant, this paper estimates how a minimum wage increase impacts a low-wage worker's wage...
Wage inequality, minimum wage effects and spillovers
Stewart, Mark B.
2011-01-01
This paper investigates possible spillover effects of the UK minimum wage. The halt in the growth in inequality in the lower half of the wage distribution (as measured by the 50:10 percentile ratio) since the mid-1990s, in contrast to the continued inequality growth in the upper half of the distribution, suggests the possibility of a minimum wage effect and spillover effects on wages above the minimum. This paper analyses individual wage changes, using both a difference-in-differences estimat...
Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.
1982-01-01
Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets
Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams
Austin, Samuel H.
2014-01-01
Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.
K-forbidden transition probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki
2000-01-01
Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)
Direct probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.
1993-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration
Ponce, Ninez; Shimkhada, Riti; Raub, Amy; Daoud, Adel; Nandi, Arijit; Richter, Linda; Heymann, Jody
2017-08-02
There is recognition that social protection policies such as raising the minimum wage can favourably impact health, but little evidence links minimum wage increases to child health outcomes. We used multi-year data (2003-2012) on national minimum wages linked to individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 23 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that had least two DHS surveys to establish pre- and post-observation periods. Over a pre- and post-interval ranging from 4 to 8 years, we examined minimum wage growth and four nutritional status outcomes among children under 5 years: stunting, wasting, underweight, and anthropometric failure. Using a differences-in-differences framework with country and time-fixed effects, a 10% increase in minimum wage growth over time was associated with a 0.5 percentage point decline in stunting (-0.054, 95% CI (-0.084,-0.025)), and a 0.3 percentage point decline in failure (-0.031, 95% CI (-0.057,-0.005)). We did not observe statistically significant associations between minimum wage growth and underweight or wasting. We found similar results for the poorest households working in non-agricultural and non-professional jobs, where minimum wage growth may have the most leverage. Modest increases in minimum wage over a 4- to 8-year period might be effective in reducing child undernutrition in LMICs.
Upasani, Vidyadhar V; Bomar, James D; Matheney, Travis H; Sankar, Wudbhav N; Mulpuri, Kishore; Price, Charles T; Moseley, Colin F; Kelley, Simon P; Narayanan, Unni; Clarke, Nicholas M P; Wedge, John H; Castañeda, Pablo; Kasser, James R; Foster, Bruce K; Herrera-Soto, Jose A; Cundy, Peter J; Williams, Nicole; Mubarak, Scott J
2016-07-20
The use of a brace has been shown to be an effective treatment for hip dislocation in infants; however, previous studies of such treatment have been single-center or retrospective. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the success rate for brace use in the treatment of infant hip dislocation in an international, multicenter, prospective cohort, and to identify the variables associated with brace failure. All dislocations were verified with use of ultrasound or radiography prior to the initiation of treatment, and patients were followed prospectively for a minimum of 18 months. Successful treatment was defined as the use of a brace that resulted in a clinically and radiographically reduced hip, without surgical intervention. The Mann-Whitney test, chi-square analysis, and Fisher exact test were used to identify risk factors for brace failure. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the probability of brace failure according to the risk factors identified. Brace treatment was successful in 162 (79%) of the 204 dislocated hips in this series. Six variables were found to be significant risk factors for failure: developing femoral nerve palsy during brace treatment (p = 0.001), treatment with a static brace (p failure, whereas hips with 4 or 5 risk factors had a 100% probability of failure. These data provide valuable information for patient families and their providers regarding the important variables that influence successful brace treatment for dislocated hips in infants. Prognostic Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.
Psychophysics of the probability weighting function
Takahashi, Taiki
2011-03-01
A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.
How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?
Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G
2013-05-01
The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.
Impact of the Minimum Wage on Compression.
Wolfe, Michael N.; Candland, Charles W.
1979-01-01
Assesses the impact of increases in the minimum wage on salary schedules, provides guidelines for creating a philosophy to deal with the impact, and outlines options and presents recommendations. (IRT)
Quantitative Research on the Minimum Wage
Goldfarb, Robert S.
1975-01-01
The article reviews recent research examining the impact of minimum wage requirements on the size and distribution of teenage employment and earnings. The studies measure income distribution, employment levels and effect on unemployment. (MW)
Determining minimum lubrication film for machine parts
Hamrock, B. J.; Dowson, D.
1978-01-01
Formula predicts minimum film thickness required for fully-flooded ball bearings, gears, and cams. Formula is result of study to determine complete theoretical solution of isothermal elasto-hydrodynamic lubrication of fully-flooded elliptical contacts.
Long Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS)
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Long-Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS) is a standardized, primary screening and assessment tool of health status that forms the foundation of the comprehensive...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Fin Stolze; Bjerring, Peter Nissen
2011-01-01
Acute liver failure (ALF) results in a multitude of serious complications that often lead to multi-organ failure. This brief review focuses on the pathophysiological processes in ALF and how to manage these.......Acute liver failure (ALF) results in a multitude of serious complications that often lead to multi-organ failure. This brief review focuses on the pathophysiological processes in ALF and how to manage these....
Prasitmeeboon, Pitcha
Repetitive control (RC) is a control method that specifically aims to converge to zero tracking error of a control systems that execute a periodic command or have periodic disturbances of known period. It uses the error of one period back to adjust the command in the present period. In theory, RC can completely eliminate periodic disturbance effects. RC has applications in many fields such as high-precision manufacturing in robotics, computer disk drives, and active vibration isolation in spacecraft. The first topic treated in this dissertation develops several simple RC design methods that are somewhat analogous to PID controller design in classical control. From the early days of digital control, emulation methods were developed based on a Forward Rule, a Backward Rule, Tustin's Formula, a modification using prewarping, and a pole-zero mapping method. These allowed one to convert a candidate controller design to discrete time in a simple way. We investigate to what extent they can be used to simplify RC design. A particular design is developed from modification of the pole-zero mapping rules, which is simple and sheds light on the robustness of repetitive control designs. RC convergence requires less than 90 degree model phase error at all frequencies up to Nyquist. A zero-phase cutoff filter is normally used to robustify to high frequency model error when this limit is exceeded. The result is stabilization at the expense of failure to cancel errors above the cutoff. The second topic investigates a series of methods to use data to make real time updates of the frequency response model, allowing one to increase or eliminate the frequency cutoff. These include the use of a moving window employing a recursive discrete Fourier transform (DFT), and use of a real time projection algorithm from adaptive control for each frequency. The results can be used directly to make repetitive control corrections that cancel each error frequency, or they can be used to update a
The SME gauge sector with minimum length
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Belich, H.; Louzada, H.L.C. [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo, Departamento de Fisica e Quimica, Vitoria, ES (Brazil)
2017-12-15
We study the gauge sector of the Standard Model Extension (SME) with the Lorentz covariant deformed Heisenberg algebra associated to the minimum length. In order to find and estimate corrections, we clarify whether the violation of Lorentz symmetry and the existence of a minimum length are independent phenomena or are, in some way, related. With this goal, we analyze the dispersion relations of this theory. (orig.)
The SME gauge sector with minimum length
Belich, H.; Louzada, H. L. C.
2017-12-01
We study the gauge sector of the Standard Model Extension (SME) with the Lorentz covariant deformed Heisenberg algebra associated to the minimum length. In order to find and estimate corrections, we clarify whether the violation of Lorentz symmetry and the existence of a minimum length are independent phenomena or are, in some way, related. With this goal, we analyze the dispersion relations of this theory.
Carr, Allison
2013-01-01
In this essay, I propose a concerted effort to begin devising a theory and pedagogy of failure. I review the discourse of failure in Western culture as well as in composition pedagogy, ultimately suggesting that failure is not simply a judgement or indication of rank but is a relational, affect-bearing concept with tremendous relevance to…
Imaging multipole gravity anomaly sources by 3D probability tomography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alaia, Raffaele; Patella, Domenico; Mauriello, Paolo
2009-01-01
We present a generalized theory of the probability tomography applied to the gravity method, assuming that any Bouguer anomaly data set can be caused by a discrete number of monopoles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles. These elementary sources are used to characterize, in an as detailed as possible way and without any a priori assumption, the shape and position of the most probable minimum structure of the gravity sources compatible with the observed data set, by picking out the location of their centres and peculiar points of their boundaries related to faces, edges and vertices. A few synthetic examples using simple geometries are discussed in order to demonstrate the notably enhanced resolution power of the new approach, compared with a previous formulation that used only monopoles and dipoles. A field example related to a gravity survey carried out in the volcanic area of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) is presented, aimed at imaging the geometry of the minimum gravity structure down to 8 km of depth bsl
Minimum weight design of composite laminates for multiple loads
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krikanov, A.A.; Soni, S.R.
1995-01-01
A new design method of constructing optimum weight composite laminates for multiple loads is proposed in this paper. A netting analysis approach is used to develop an optimization procedure. Three ply orientations permit development of optimum laminate design without using stress-strain relations. It is proved that stresses in minimum weight laminate reach allowable values in each ply with given load. The optimum ply thickness is defined at maximum value among tensile and compressive loads. Two examples are given to obtain optimum ply orientations, thicknesses and materials. For comparison purposes, calculations of stresses are done in orthotropic material using classical lamination theory. Based upon these calculations, matrix degrades at 30 to 50% of ultimate load. There is no fiber failure and therefore laminates withstand all applied loads in both examples
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
The failure of earthquake failure models
Gomberg, J.
2001-01-01
In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.
Foundations of the theory of probability
Kolmogorov, AN
2018-01-01
This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.
The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner
Foster, Colin
2012-01-01
This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)
Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bryan eCort
2013-10-01
Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT
2018-01-02
We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.
Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima
2002-01-01
Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability
Sonnino, Giorgio; Steinbrecher, György; Cardinali, Alessandro; Sonnino, Alberto; Tlidi, Mustapha
2013-01-01
Using statistical thermodynamics, we derive a general expression of the stationary probability distribution for thermodynamic systems driven out of equilibrium by several thermodynamic forces. The local equilibrium is defined by imposing the minimum entropy production and the maximum entropy principle under the scale invariance restrictions. The obtained probability distribution presents a singularity that has immediate physical interpretation in terms of the intermittency models. The derived reference probability distribution function is interpreted as time and ensemble average of the real physical one. A generic family of stochastic processes describing noise-driven intermittency, where the stationary density distribution coincides exactly with the one resulted from entropy maximization, is presented.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stefane, Wania [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica; Morooka, Celso K. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Centro de Estudos de Petroleo; Pezzi Filho, Mario [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). E and P. ENGP/IPMI/ES; Matt, Cyntia G.C.; Franciss, Ricardo [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)
2009-12-19
The discovery of offshore fields in ultra deep water and the presence of reservoirs located in great depths below the seabed requires innovative solutions for offshore oil production systems. Many riser configurations have emerged as economically viable technological solutions for these scenarios. Therefore the study and the development of methodologies applied to riser design and procedures to calculate and to dimension production risers, taken into account the effects of mete ocean conditions, such as waves, current and platform motion in the fatigue failure is fundamental. The random nature of these conditions as well as the mechanical characteristics of the riser components are critical to a probabilistic treatment to ensure the greatest reliability for risers and minimum risks associated to different aspects of the operation like the safety of the installation, economical concerns and the environment. The current work presents a procedure of the identification and the assessment of main parameters of risk when considering fatigue failure. Static and dynamic behavior of Steel Catenary Riser (SCR) under the effects of mete ocean conditions and uncertainties related to total cumulative damage (Miner-Palmgren's rule) are taken into account. The methodology adopted is probabilistic and the approach is analytical. The procedure is based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which usually presents low computational effort and acceptable accuracy. The procedure suggested is applied for two practical cases, one using data available from the literature and the second with data collected from an actual Brazilian offshore field operation. For both cases, results of the probability of failure due to fatigue were obtained for different locations along the SCR length connected to a semi-submersible platform. From these results, the sensitivity of the probability of failure due to fatigue for a SCR could be verified, and the most effective parameter could also be
Statistical Analysis Of Failure Strength Of Material Using Weibull Distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Entin Hartini; Mike Susmikanti; Antonius Sitompul
2008-01-01
In evaluation of ceramic and glass materials strength a statistical approach is necessary Strength of ceramic and glass depend on its measure and size distribution of flaws in these material. The distribution of strength for ductile material is narrow and close to a Gaussian distribution while strength of brittle materials as ceramic and glass following Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is an indicator of the failure of material strength resulting from a distribution of flaw size. In this paper, cumulative probability of material strength to failure probability, cumulative probability of failure versus fracture stress and cumulative probability of reliability of material were calculated. Statistical criteria calculation supporting strength analysis of Silicon Nitride material were done utilizing MATLAB. (author)
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations
López Puga, Jorge
2014-01-01
The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger
2010-01-01
The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.
Swarm of bees and particles algorithms in the problem of gradual failure reliability assurance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. F. Anop
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Probability-statistical framework of reliability theory uses models based on the chance failures analysis. These models are not functional and do not reflect relation of reliability characteristics to the object performance. At the same time, a significant part of the technical systems failures are gradual failures caused by degradation of the internal parameters of the system under the influence of various external factors.The paper shows how to provide the required level of reliability at the design stage using a functional model of a technical object. Paper describes the method for solving this problem under incomplete initial information, when there is no information about the patterns of technological deviations and degradation parameters, and the considered system model is a \\black box" one.To this end, we formulate the problem of optimal parametric synthesis. It lies in the choice of the nominal values of the system parameters to satisfy the requirements for its operation and take into account the unavoidable deviations of the parameters from their design values during operation. As an optimization criterion in this case we propose to use a deterministic geometric criterion \\reliability reserve", which is the minimum distance measured along the coordinate directions from the nominal parameter value to the acceptability region boundary rather than statistical values.The paper presents the results of the application of heuristic swarm intelligence methods to solve the formulated optimization problem. Efficiency of particle swarm algorithms and swarm of bees one compared with undirected random search algorithm in solving a number of test optimal parametric synthesis problems in three areas: reliability, convergence rate and operating time. The study suggests that the use of a swarm of bees method for solving the problem of the technical systems gradual failure reliability ensuring is preferred because of the greater flexibility of the
Probability problems in seismic risk analysis and load combinations for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
George, L.L.
1983-01-01
This workshop describes some probability problems in power plant reliability and maintenance analysis. The problems are seismic risk analysis, loss of load probability, load combinations, and load sharing. The seismic risk problem is to compute power plant reliability given an earthquake and the resulting risk. Component survival occurs if its peak random response to the earthquake does not exceed its strength. Power plant survival is a complicated Boolean function of component failures and survivals. The responses and strengths of components are dependent random processes, and the peak responses are maxima of random processes. The resulting risk is the expected cost of power plant failure
The minimum wage in the Czech enterprises
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eva Lajtkepová
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Although the statutory minimum wage is not a new category, in the Czech Republic we encounter the definition and regulation of a minimum wage for the first time in the 1990 amendment to Act No. 65/1965 Coll., the Labour Code. The specific amount of the minimum wage and the conditions of its operation were then subsequently determined by government regulation in February 1991. Since that time, the value of minimum wage has been adjusted fifteenth times (the last increase was in January 2007. The aim of this article is to present selected results of two researches of acceptance of the statutory minimum wage by Czech enterprises. The first research makes use of the data collected by questionnaire research in 83 small and medium-sized enterprises in the South Moravia Region in 2005, the second one the data of 116 enterprises in the entire Czech Republic (in 2007. The data have been processed by means of the standard methods of descriptive statistics and of the appropriate methods of the statistical analyses (Spearman correlation coefficient of sequential correlation, Kendall coefficient, χ2 - independence test, Kruskal-Wallis test, and others.
Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.
2006-01-01
This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the
The structure of water around the compressibility minimum
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Skinner, L. B. [X-ray Science Division, Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439 (United States); Mineral Physics Institute, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, New York 11794-2100 (United States); Benmore, C. J., E-mail: benmore@aps.anl.gov [X-ray Science Division, Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439 (United States); Neuefeind, J. C. [Spallation Neutron Source, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37922 (United States); Parise, J. B. [Mineral Physics Institute, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, New York 11794-2100 (United States); Department of Geosciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, New York 11794-2100 (United States); Photon Sciences Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States)
2014-12-07
Here we present diffraction data that yield the oxygen-oxygen pair distribution function, g{sub OO}(r) over the range 254.2–365.9 K. The running O-O coordination number, which represents the integral of the pair distribution function as a function of radial distance, is found to exhibit an isosbestic point at 3.30(5) Å. The probability of finding an oxygen atom surrounding another oxygen at this distance is therefore shown to be independent of temperature and corresponds to an O-O coordination number of 4.3(2). Moreover, the experimental data also show a continuous transition associated with the second peak position in g{sub OO}(r) concomitant with the compressibility minimum at 319 K.
Minimum Effective Volume of Lidocaine for Ultrasound-Guided Costoclavicular Block.
Sotthisopha, Thitipan; Elgueta, Maria Francisca; Samerchua, Artid; Leurcharusmee, Prangmalee; Tiyaprasertkul, Worakamol; Gordon, Aida; Finlayson, Roderick J; Tran, De Q
This dose-finding study aimed to determine the minimum effective volume in 90% of patients (MEV90) of lidocaine 1.5% with epinephrine 5 μg/mL for ultrasound-guided costoclavicular block. Using an in-plane technique and a lateral-to-medial direction, the block needle was positioned in the middle of the 3 cords of the brachial plexus in the costoclavicular space. The entire volume of lidocaine was deposited in this location. Dose assignment was carried out using a biased-coin-design up-and-down sequential method, where the total volume of local anesthetic administered to each patient depended on the response of the previous one. In case of failure, the next subject received a higher volume (defined as the previous volume with an increment of 2.5 mL). If the previous patient had a successful block, the next subject was randomized to a lower volume (defined as the previous volume with a decrement of 2.5 mL), with a probability of b = 0.11, or the same volume, with a probability of 1 - b = 0.89. Success was defined, at 30 minutes, as a minimal score of 14 of 16 points using a sensorimotor composite scale. Patients undergoing surgery of the elbow, forearm, wrist, or hand were prospectively enrolled until 45 successful blocks were obtained. This clinical trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (ID NCT02932670). Fifty-seven patients were included in the study. Using isotonic regression and bootstrap confidence interval, the MEV90 for ultrasound-guided costoclavicular block was estimated to be 34.0 mL (95% confidence interval, 33.4-34.4 mL). All patients with a minimal composite score of 14 points at 30 minutes achieved surgical anesthesia intraoperatively. For ultrasound-guided costoclavicular block, the MEV90 of lidocaine 1.5% with epinephrine 5 μg/mL is 34 mL. Further dose-finding studies are required for other concentrations of lidocaine, other local anesthetic agents, and multiple-injection techniques.
BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fussell, J.B.
1983-01-01
1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2014-01-01
The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t
An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)
Gillies, Donald
2012-01-01
This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma
Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juliana Bueno-Soler
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.
Managing Feelings about Heart Failure
... About Heart Failure Module 6: Managing Feelings About Heart Failure Download Module Order Hardcopy Heart failure can cause ... professional help for emotional problems. Common Feelings About Heart Failure It is common for people to feel depressed ...
Impact of Dual-Link Failures on Impairment-Aware Routed Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Georgakilas, Konstantinos N; Katrinis, Kostas; Tzanakaki, Anna
2010-01-01
This paper evaluates the impact of dual-link failures on single-link failure resilient networks, while physical layer constraints are taken into consideration during demand routing, as dual link failures and equivalent situations appear to be quite probable in core optical networks. In particular...
Minimum training requirement in ultrasound imaging of peripheral arterial disease.
Eiberg, J P; Hansen, M A; Grønvall Rasmussen, J B; Schroeder, T V
2008-09-01
To demonstrate the minimum training requirement when performing ultrasound of peripheral arterial disease. Prospective and blinded comparative study. 100 limbs in 100 consecutive patients suffering from peripheral arterial disease, 74% suffering critical limb ischemia, were enrolled during a 9 months period. One physician with limited ultrasound experience performed all the ultrasound examinations of the arteries of the most symptomatic limb. Before enrolling any patients 15 duplex ultrasound examinations were performed supervised by an experienced vascular technologist. All patients had a digital subtraction arteriography performed by an experienced vascular radiologist, unaware of the ultrasound result. The number of insufficiently insonated segments (non-diagnostic segments) was significantly reduced during the study; from 9% among the initial 50 limbs to 2% among the last 50 limbs (Pultrasound and arteriography from the initial 50 patients (overall Kappa=0.66, (95%-CI: 0.60-0.72); supragenicular Kappa=0.73 (95%-CI: 0.64-0.82); infragenicular Kappa=0.61 (95%-CI: 0.54-0.69)) to the last 50 patients (overall Kappa=0.66 (95%-CI: 0.60-0.72), supragenicular Kappa=0.67 (95%-CI: 0.57-0.76); infragenicular Kappa=0.66 (95%-CI: 0.58-0.73)). The minimum training requirement in ultrasound imaging of peripheral arterial disease appears to be less than 50 ultrasound examinations (probably only 15 examinations) for the supragenicular segments and 100 examinations for the infragenicular segments.
Risk control and the minimum significant risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.
1996-01-01
Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented
Minimum qualifications for nuclear criticality safety professionals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ketzlach, N.
1990-01-01
A Nuclear Criticality Technology and Safety Training Committee has been established within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety and Technology Project to review and, if necessary, develop standards for the training of personnel involved in nuclear criticality safety (NCS). The committee is exploring the need for developing a standard or other mechanism for establishing minimum qualifications for NCS professionals. The development of standards and regulatory guides for nuclear power plant personnel may serve as a guide in developing the minimum qualifications for NCS professionals
A minimum achievable PV electrical generating cost
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabisky, E.S.
1996-01-01
The role and share of photovoltaic (PV) generated electricity in our nation's future energy arsenal is primarily dependent on its future production cost. This paper provides a framework for obtaining a minimum achievable electrical generating cost (a lower bound) for fixed, flat-plate photovoltaic systems. A cost of 2.8 $cent/kWh (1990$) was derived for a plant located in Southwestern USA sunshine using a cost of money of 8%. In addition, a value of 22 $cent/Wp (1990$) was estimated as a minimum module manufacturing cost/price
Outage Probability Analysis of FSO Links over Foggy Channel
Esmail, Maged Abdullah; Fathallah, Habib; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim
2017-01-01
Outdoor Free space optic (FSO) communication systems are sensitive to atmospheric impairments such as turbulence and fog, in addition to being subject to pointing errors. Fog is particularly severe because it induces an attenuation that may vary from few dBs up to few hundreds of dBs per kilometer. Pointing errors also distort the link alignment and cause signal fading. In this paper, we investigate and analyze the FSO systems performance under fog conditions and pointing errors in terms of outage probability. We then study the impact of several effective communication mitigation techniques that can improve the system performance including multi-hop, transmit laser selection (TLS) and hybrid RF/FSO transmission. Closed-form expressions for the outage probability are derived and practical and comprehensive numerical examples are suggested to assess the obtained results. We found that the FSO system has limited performance that prevents applying FSO in wireless microcells that have a 500 m minimum cell radius. The performance degrades more when pointing errors appear. Increasing the transmitted power can improve the performance under light to moderate fog. However, under thick and dense fog the improvement is negligible. Using mitigation techniques can play a major role in improving the range and outage probability.
Outage Probability Analysis of FSO Links over Foggy Channel
Esmail, Maged Abdullah
2017-02-22
Outdoor Free space optic (FSO) communication systems are sensitive to atmospheric impairments such as turbulence and fog, in addition to being subject to pointing errors. Fog is particularly severe because it induces an attenuation that may vary from few dBs up to few hundreds of dBs per kilometer. Pointing errors also distort the link alignment and cause signal fading. In this paper, we investigate and analyze the FSO systems performance under fog conditions and pointing errors in terms of outage probability. We then study the impact of several effective communication mitigation techniques that can improve the system performance including multi-hop, transmit laser selection (TLS) and hybrid RF/FSO transmission. Closed-form expressions for the outage probability are derived and practical and comprehensive numerical examples are suggested to assess the obtained results. We found that the FSO system has limited performance that prevents applying FSO in wireless microcells that have a 500 m minimum cell radius. The performance degrades more when pointing errors appear. Increasing the transmitted power can improve the performance under light to moderate fog. However, under thick and dense fog the improvement is negligible. Using mitigation techniques can play a major role in improving the range and outage probability.
Automated multiple failure FMEA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Price, C.J.; Taylor, N.S.
2002-01-01
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is typically performed by a team of engineers working together. In general, they will only consider single point failures in a system. Consideration of all possible combinations of failures is impractical for all but the simplest example systems. Even if the task of producing the FMEA report for the full multiple failure scenario were automated, it would still be impractical for the engineers to read, understand and act on all of the results. This paper shows how approximate failure rates for components can be used to select the most likely combinations of failures for automated investigation using simulation. The important information can be automatically identified from the resulting report, making it practical for engineers to study and act on the results. The strategy described in the paper has been applied to a range of electrical subsystems, and the results have confirmed that the strategy described here works well for realistically complex systems
Bozkurt, Biykem; Khalaf, Shaden
2017-01-01
Heart failure is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in women, and they tend to develop it at an older age compared to men. Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is more common in women than in men and accounts for at least half the cases of heart failure in women. When comparing men and women who have heart failure and a low left ventricular ejection fraction, the women are more symptomatic and have a similarly poor outcome. Overall recommendations for guideline-directed medical therapies show no differences in treatment approaches between men and women. Overall, women are generally underrepresented in clinical trials for heart failure. Further studies are needed to shed light into different mechanisms, causes, and targeted therapies of heart failure in women. PMID:29744014
ESPEN guidelines on chronic intestinal failure in adults
Pironi, L; Arends, J.; Bozzetti, F.; Cuerda, C.; Gillanders, L.; Jeppesen, P.B.; Joly, F.; Kelly, D.; Lal, S.; Staun, M.; Szczepanek, K.; Gossum, A. van; Wanten, G.J.A.; Schneider, S.M.
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic Intestinal Failure (CIF) is the long-lasting reduction of gut function, below the minimum necessary for the absorption of macronutrients and/or water and electrolytes, such that intravenous supplementation is required to maintain health and/or growth. CIF is the rarest
Discretization of space and time: determining the values of minimum length and minimum time
Roatta , Luca
2017-01-01
Assuming that space and time can only have discrete values, we obtain the expression of the minimum length and the minimum time interval. These values are found to be exactly coincident with the Planck's length and the Planck's time but for the presence of h instead of ħ .
Future changes over the Himalayas: Maximum and minimum temperature
Dimri, A. P.; Kumar, D.; Choudhary, A.; Maharana, P.
2018-03-01
An assessment of the projection of minimum and maximum air temperature over the Indian Himalayan region (IHR) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment- South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) regional climate model (RCM) experiments have been carried out under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The major aim of this study is to assess the probable future changes in the minimum and maximum climatology and its long-term trend under different RCPs along with the elevation dependent warming over the IHR. A number of statistical analysis such as changes in mean climatology, long-term spatial trend and probability distribution function are carried out to detect the signals of changes in climate. The study also tries to quantify the uncertainties associated with different model experiments and their ensemble in space, time and for different seasons. The model experiments and their ensemble show prominent cold bias over Himalayas for present climate. However, statistically significant higher warming rate (0.23-0.52 °C/decade) for both minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) is observed for all the seasons under both RCPs. The rate of warming intensifies with the increase in the radiative forcing under a range of greenhouse gas scenarios starting from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5. In addition to this, a wide range of spatial variability and disagreements in the magnitude of trend between different models describes the uncertainty associated with the model projections and scenarios. The projected rate of increase of Tmin may destabilize the snow formation at the higher altitudes in the northern and western parts of Himalayan region, while rising trend of Tmax over southern flank may effectively melt more snow cover. Such combined effect of rising trend of Tmin and Tmax may pose a potential threat to the glacial deposits. The overall trend of Diurnal temperature range (DTR) portrays increasing trend across entire area with