WorldWideScience

Sample records for mexico ecosystem change

  1. Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Mary Anne; Scavia, Donald

    2011-01-01

    Increasing use of ecological models for management and policy requires robust evaluation of model precision, accuracy, and sensitivity to ecosystem change. We conducted such an evaluation of hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico and Chesapeake Bay using hindcasts of historical data, comparing several approaches to model calibration. For both systems we find that model sensitivity and precision can be optimized and model accuracy maintained within reasonable bounds by calibrating the model to relatively short, recent 3 year datasets. Model accuracy was higher for Chesapeake Bay than for the Gulf of Mexico, potentially indicating the greater importance of unmodeled processes in the latter system. Retrospective analyses demonstrate both directional and variable changes in sensitivity of hypoxia to nutrient loads.

  2. Coastal Wetland Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: the Role of Macroclimatic Drivers along the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, M. J.; Enwright, N.; Day, R. H.; Gabler, C. A.; Stagg, C. L.; From, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Across the globe, macroclimatic drivers greatly influence coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, changing macroclimatic conditions are rarely incorporated into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments. Here, we quantify the influence of macroclimatic drivers upon coastal wetland ecosystems along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast. From a global perspective, the NGOM coast provides several excellent opportunities to examine the effects of climate change upon coastal wetlands. The abundant coastal wetland ecosystems in the region span two major climatic gradients: (1) a winter temperature gradient that crosses temperate to tropical climatic zones; and (2) a precipitation gradient that crosses humid to semi-arid zones. We present analyses where we used geospatial data (historical climate, hydrology, and coastal wetland coverage) and field data (soil, elevation, and plant community composition and structure) to quantify climate-mediated ecological transitions. We identified winter climate and precipitation-based thresholds that separate mangrove forests from salt marshes and vegetated wetlands from unvegetated wetlands, respectively. We used simple distribution and abundance models to evaluate the potential ecological effects of alternative future climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate and quantify the importance of macroclimatic drivers and indicate that climate change could result in landscape-scale changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. These macroclimate-mediated ecological changes could affect the supply of some ecosystem goods and services as well as the resilience of these ecosystems to stressors, including accelerated sea level rise. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating macroclimatic drivers within future-focused coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.

  3. Tropical and Highland Temperate Forest Plantations in Mexico: Pathways for Climate Change Mitigation and Ecosystem Services Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidal Guerra-De la Cruz

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forest plantations are a possible way of increasing forest productivity in temperate and tropical forests, and therefore also increasing above- and belowground carbon pools. In the context of climate change, monospecific plantations might become an alternative to mitigate global warming; however, their contribution to the structural complexity, complementarity, and biodiversity of forests has not been addressed. Mixed forest plantations can ensure that objectives of climate change mitigation are met through carbon sequestration, while also delivering anticipated ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, erosion control, and wildlife habitat. However, mixed forest plantations pose considerable operational challenges and research opportunities. For example, it is essential to know how many species or functional traits are necessary to deliver a set of benefits, or what mixture of species and densities are key to maintaining productive plantations and delivering multiple ecosystem services. At the same time, the establishment of forest plantations in Mexico should not be motivated solely by timber production. Forest plantations should also increase carbon sequestration, maintain biodiversity, and provide other ecosystem services. This article analyzes some matters that affect the development of planted forests in the Mexican national context, and presents alternatives for forest resources management through the recommendation of mixed forest plantations as a means of contributing to climate change mitigation and the delivery of ecosystem services.

  4. Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Status Report

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic...

  5. Analysis of land use change in an urban ecosystem in the drainage area of the Grijalva river, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Á. Palomeque-De la Cruz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available El cambio de uso del suelo de la ciudad de Villahermosa, Tabasco, se analizó con base en el efecto provocado por el crecimiento urbano sobre la vegetación arbórea y los ecosistemas acuáticos. Se hizo un análisis multitemporal mediante el modelador de cambio de uso del suelo (Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability y el módulo CrossTab del software IDRISI Selva ® y se calcularon tasas de cambio. De acuerdo con los resultados, durante casi tres décadas (1984-2008 se perdieron 4,008 ha de suelo ocupado por vegetación arbórea y 289 ha de humedales, debido al crecimiento acelerado de los pastizales y la zona urbana. Mediante modelos de transición estocástica (cadenas de Markov y autómatas celulares se proyectó una pérdida de 1,171 ha de vegetación arbórea y 247 ha de humedales entre el periodo 2008 y 2030. Es probable que esta tendencia se mantenga por el incesante crecimiento del pastizal y la zona urbana.

  6. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  7. Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force---Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Science Assessment and Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Shelby; Dausman, Alyssa M.; Lavoie, Dawn L.

    2012-01-01

    The Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force (GCERTF) was established by Executive Order 13554 as a result of recommendations from “America’s Gulf Coast: A Long-term Recovery Plan after the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill” by Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus (Mabus Report). The GCERTF consists of members from 11 Federal agencies and representatives from each State bordering the Gulf of Mexico. The GCERTF was charged to develop a holistic, long-term, science-based Regional Ecosystem Restoration Strategy for the Gulf of Mexico. Federal and State agencies staffed the GCERTF with experts in fields such as policy, budgeting, and science to help develop the Strategy. The Strategy was built on existing authorities and resources and represents enhanced collaboration and a recognition of the shared responsibility among Federal and State governments to restore the Gulf Coast ecosystem. In this time of severe fiscal constraints, Task Force member agencies and States are committed to establishing shared priorities and working together to achieve them.As part of this effort, three staffers, one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist and two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists, created and led a Science Coordination Team (SCT) to guide scientific input into the development of the Gulf of Mexico Regional Ecosystem Restoration Strategy. The SCT leads from the GCERTF coordinated more than 70 scientists from the Federal and State Task Force member agencies to participate in development of a restoration-oriented science document focused on the entire Gulf of Mexico, from inland watersheds to the deep blue waters. The SCT leads and scientists were organized into six different working groups based on expanded goals from the Mabus Report: Coastal habitats are healthy and resilient.Living coastal and marine resources are healthy, diverse, and sustainable.Coastal communities are adaptive and resilient.Storm buffers are sustainable.Inland habitats and

  8. Flux frequency analysis of seasonally dry ecosystem fluxes in two unique biomes of Sonora Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco, V. S.; Yepez, E. A.; Robles-Morua, A.; Garatuza, J.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Watts, C.

    2013-05-01

    Complex dynamics from the interactions of ecosystems processes makes difficult to model the behavior of ecosystems fluxes of carbon and water in response to the variation of environmental and biological drivers. Although process oriented ecosystem models are critical tools for studying land-atmosphere fluxes, its validity depends on the appropriate parameterization of equations describing temporal and spatial changes of model state variables and their interactions. This constraint often leads to discrepancies between model simulations and observed data that reduce models reliability especially in arid and semiarid ecosystems. In the semiarid north western Mexico, ecosystem processes are fundamentally controlled by the seasonality of water and the intermittence of rain pulses which are conditions that require calibration of specific fitting functions to describe the response of ecosystem variables (i.e. NEE, GPP, ET, respiration) to these wetting and drying periods. The goal is to find functions that describe the magnitude of ecosystem fluxes during individual rain pulses and the seasonality of the ecosystem. Relaying on five years of eddy covariance flux data of a tropical dry forest and a subtropical shrubland we present a flux frequency analysis that describe the variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to highlight the relevance of pulse driven dynamics controlling this flux. Preliminary results of flux frequency analysis of NEE indicate that these ecosystems are strongly controlled by the frequency distribution of rain. Also, the output of fitting functions for NEE, GPP, ET and respiration using semi-empirical functions applied at specific rain pulses compared with season-long statistically generated simulations do not agree. Seasonality and the intrinsic nature of individual pulses have different effects on ecosystem flux responses. This suggests that relationships between the nature of seasonality and individual pulses can help improve the

  9. Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

    2013-05-01

    The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  10. Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

  11. Multivariate Bioclimatic Ecosystem Change Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-06

    course the sandy soils of the Sandhills will not migrate. This observation suggests that a new nomenclature for ecosystems must be developed if...Coast Sandhills. At that time period, not only will the climate be similar, but the soil character will also be similar. Therefore about the year 2115...Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs decision and policy analysis. Working Paper No. 2. Cali, Colombia : International Centre for Tropical

  12. Assessment of water supply as an ecosystem service in a rural-urban watershed in southwestern Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jujnovsky, Julieta; González-Martínez, Teresa Margarita; Cantoral-Uriza, Enrique Arturo; Almeida-Leñero, Lucia

    2012-03-01

    Studies from the ecosystem services perspective can provide a useful framework because they allow us to fully examine the benefits that humans obtain from socio-ecological systems. Mexico City, the second largest city in the world, has faced severe problems related to water shortages, which have worsened due to increasing population. Demand for space has forced changes in land cover, including covering areas that are essential for groundwater recharge. The city has 880 km(2) of forest areas that are crucial for the water supply. The Magdalena River Watershed was chosen as a model because it is a well-preserved zone within Mexico City and it provides water for the population. The general aim of this study was to assess the ecosystem service of the water supply in the Magdalena River Watershed by determining its water balance (SWAT model) and the number of beneficiaries of the ecosystem services. The results showed that the watershed provides 18.4 hm(3) of water per year. Baseflow was dominant, with a contribution of 85%, while surface runoff only accounted for 15%. The zone provides drinking water to 78,476 inhabitants and could supply 153,203 potential beneficiaries. This work provides an example for understanding how ecosystem processes determine the provision of ecosystem services and benefits to the population in a rural-urban watershed in Mexico City.

  13. Gulf of Mexico Deep-Sea Coral Ecosystem Studies, 2008-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellogg, Christina A.

    2009-01-01

    Most people are familiar with tropical coral reefs, located in warm, well-illuminated, shallow waters. However, corals also exist hundreds and even thousands of meters below the ocean surface, where it is cold and completely dark. These deep-sea corals, also known as cold-water corals, have become a topic of interest due to conservation concerns over the impacts of trawling, exploration for oil and gas, and climate change. Although the existence of these corals has been known since the 1800s, our understanding of their distribution, ecology, and biology is limited due to the technical difficulties of conducting deep-sea research. DISCOVRE (DIversity, Systematics, and COnnectivity of Vulnerable Reef Ecosystems) is a new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) program focused on deep-water coral ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico. This integrated, multidisciplinary, international effort investigates a variety of topics related to unique and fragile deep-sea coral ecosystems from the microscopic level to the ecosystem level, including components of microbiology, population genetics, paleoecology, food webs, taxonomy, community ecology, physical oceanography, and mapping.

  14. Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canadell, J.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, ACT (Australia). Global Carbon Project; Pataki, D.E. [California Univ., Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science]|[California Univ., Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Pitelka, L.F. (eds.) [Maryland Univ., Frostburg, MD (United States). Appalachian Lab.

    2007-07-01

    Over 100 authors present 25 contributions on the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems including: * key processes of the earth system such as the CO2 fertilization effect, shifts in disturbances and biome distribution, the saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink, and changes in functional biodiversity, * ecosystem services such the production of wheat, pest control, and carbon storage in croplands, and * sensitive regions in the world threaten by rapid changes in climate and land use such as high latitudes ecosystems, tropical forest in Southeast Asia, and ecosystems dominated by Monsoon climate. The book also explores new research developments on spatial thresholds and nonlinearities, the key role of urban development in global biogeochemical processes, and the integration of natural and social sciences to address complex problems of the human-environment system. (orig.)

  15. Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecosystem Change: an Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald C. Nelson

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of what the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA calls "indirect and direct drivers" of change in ecosystem services at a global level. The MA definition of a driver is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely by altering one or more direct drivers. Global driving forces are categorized as demographic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural and religious, scientific and technological, and physical and biological. Drivers in all categories other than physical and biological are considered indirect. Important direct drivers include changes in climate, plant nutrient use, land conversion, and diseases and invasive species. This paper does not discuss natural drivers such as climate variability, extreme weather events, or volcanic eruptions.

  16. Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

    1991-01-01

    If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

  17. Program on ecosystem change and society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carpenter, Stephen R.; Folke, Carl; Norström, Albert

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality...

  18. Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Attavanich, Witsanu; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; McCarl, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The combination of shifts in crop production and a reduction in wetland ecosystems associated with climate change are forecast to reduce native grasslands and associated obligate species. Most estimates of climate change impacts to wildlife, however, do not account for how humans are likely to alter land use in response to climate changes. We examine the joint effect of climate change and the resulting land use response of farmers on waterfowl production in the Prairie Pothole Region of Nor...

  19. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  20. Institutional dimensions of Payments for Ecosystem Services. An analysis of Mexico's carbon forestry programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corbera, Esteve; Brown, Katrina; Soberanis, Carmen Gonzalez

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes a multi-dimensional framework for understanding the development and effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes, framed around the notions of institutional design, performance and interplay. The framework is applied in the context of Mexico's Programme of Payments for Carbon, Biodiversity and Agro-forestry Services (PSA-CABSA), with an emphasis on its carbon component. The analysis shows that PSA-CABSA was promoted by civil society and its rules have been subject to continuous modifications over time. In the case of the carbon component, changes have been due to an original misunderstanding of how carbon projects should be designed, implemented, and carbon traded in actual markets. From a performance point of view, the paper shows that the programme has been well received by rural communities, and carbon payments have contributed to increase household income and to enhance forest management practices and organisational skills. The paper also highlights sources of institutional interplay with local institutions and international climate policy, and it reveals the importance of capacity and scale issues in securing an effective and fair implementation of PES. The conclusion provides some policy recommendations for the future development of PES initiatives in Mexico and elsewhere. (author)

  1. 76 FR 59371 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-26

    ...-BB26 Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based... Atlantic Fishery Management Council (Council) has submitted the Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment (CE... were established under the Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment 1 and include Cape Lookout Coral...

  2. 75 FR 9864 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-04

    ...-AY32 Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based... thought to be the largest distribution (>23,000 square miles) of pristine deepwater coral ecosystems in... golden crab and deepwater shrimp fisheries while extending protection for deepwater coral ecosystems. CE...

  3. Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Sammy L.

    2010-01-01

    Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

  4. Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mooney, H

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems. We will be building on an ecosystem foundation...

  5. Overstory Tree Mortality in Ponderosa Pine and Spruce-Fir Ecosystems Following a Drought in Northern New Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian P. Oswald

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought-caused tree dieback is an issue around the world as climates change and many areas become dryer and hotter. A drought from 1998–2004 resulted in a significant tree dieback event in many of the wooded areas in portions of the Jemez Mountains and the adjacent Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and quantify the differences in tree mortality before and after a recent drought in ponderosa pine and spruce-fir ecosystems, and to assess the effect of mechanical thinning on ponderosa pine mortality. Significant increases in mortality were observed in the unthinned ponderosa pine ecosystem. Mortality varied significantly between species and within size classes. Mechanical thinning of ponderosa pines reduced overstory mortality to non-significant levels. A lack of rainfall, snowfall, and increases in daily minimum temperature contributed most to the mortality. Adaptive management, including the use of thinning activities, appear to moderate the impact of climate change on ponderosa pine forests in this region, increasing the long-term health of the ecosystem. The impact of climate change on the spruce-fir ecosystems may accelerate successional changes.

  6. Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, D.; Cramer, W.; Leemans, R.; Prentice, I.C.; Araujo, M.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Bondeau, A.; Brugmann, H.; Carter, T.R.; Gracia, C.A.; Vega-Leinert, de la A.C.; Erhard, M.; Ewert, F.; Glendining, M.; House, J.I.; Kankaanpää, S.; Klein, R.J.T.; Lavorel, S.; Lindner, M.; Metzger, M.J.; Meyer, J.; Mitchell, T.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.; Sabate, S.; Stich, S.; Smith, B.; Smith, J.; Smith, P.; Sykes, M.T.; Thonicke, K.; Thuiller, W.; Tuck, G.; Zaehle, S.; Zierl, B.

    2005-01-01

    Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in

  7. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire, is included in this summary.

  8. Elevation Control on Vegetation Organization in a Semiarid Ecosystem in Central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nudurupati, S. S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Hutton, E. W. H.

    2015-12-01

    Many semiarid and desert ecosystems are characterized by patchy and dynamic vegetation. Topography plays a commanding role on vegetation patterns. It is observed that plant biomes and biodiversity vary systematically with slope and aspect, from shrublands in low desert elevations, to mixed grass/shrublands in mid elevations, and forests at high elevations. In this study, we investigate the role of elevation dependent climatology on vegetation organization in a semiarid New Mexico catchment where elevation and hillslope aspect play a defining role on plant types. An ecohydrologic cellular automaton model developed within Landlab (component based modeling framework) is used. The model couples local vegetation dynamics (that simulate biomass production based on local soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration) and plant establishment and mortality based on competition for resources and space. This model is driven by elevation dependent rainfall pulses and solar radiation. The domain is initialized with randomly assigned plant types and the model parameters that couple plant response with soil moisture are systematically changed. Climate perturbation experiments are conducted to examine spatial vegetation organization and associated timescales. Model results reproduce elevation and aspect controls on observed vegetation patterns indicating that this model captures necessary and sufficient conditions that explain these observed ecohydrological patterns.

  9. Mapping Socio-Environmentally Vulnerable Populations Access and Exposure to Ecosystem Services at the U.S.- Mexico Borderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    The USGS is developing a binational decision support tool to understand the exchange of ecosystem services in the Santa Cruz Watershed located on the border between Arizona and Sonora, Mexico. Ecosystem services are life-sustaining benefits human societies receive from the enviro...

  10. Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the U.S.-Mexico borderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Villarreal, Miguel L.; Lara-Valencia, Francisco; Yuan, Yongping; Nie, Wenming; Wilson, Sylvia; Amaya, Gladys; Sleeter, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Socio-environmental vulnerable populations are often unrepresented in land-use planning yet have great potential for loss when exposed to changes in ecosystem services. Administrative boundaries, cultural differences, and language barriers increase the disassociation between land-use management and marginalized populations living in the U.S.–Mexico borderlands. This paper describes the development of a Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), using determinants from binational census and neighborhood data that describe levels of education, access to resources, migratory status, housing, and number of dependents, to provide a simplified snapshot of the region's populace that can be used in binational planning efforts. We apply this index at the SCW, located on the border between Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. For comparison, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is concurrently applied to assess the provision of erosion- and flood control services over a 9-year period. We describe how this coupling of data can form the base for an ecosystem services assessment across political boundaries that can be used by land-use planners. Results reveal potential disparities in environmental risks and burdens throughout the binational watershed in residential districts surrounding and between urban centers. The M-SEVI can be used as an important first step in addressing environmental justice for binational decision-making.

  11. Effects of temperature changes on groundwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griebler, Christian; Kellermann, Claudia; Schreglmann, Kathrin; Lueders, Tillmann; Brielmann, Heike; Schmidt, Susanne; Kuntz, David; Walker-Hertkorn, Simone

    2014-05-01

    The use of groundwater as a carrier of thermal energy is becoming more and more important as a sustainable source of heating and cooling. At the same time, the present understanding of the effects of aquifer thermal usage on geochemical and biological aquifer ecosystem functions is extremely limited. Recently we started to assess the effects of temperature changes in groundwater on the ecological integrity of aquifers. In a field study, we have monitored hydrogeochemical, microbial, and faunal parameters in groundwater of an oligotrophic aquifer in the vicinity of an active thermal discharge facility. The observed seasonal variability of abiotic and biotic parameters between wells was considerable. Yet, due to the energy-limited conditions no significant temperature impacts on bacterial or faunal abundances and on bacterial productivity were observed. In contrast, the diversity of aquifer bacterial communities and invertebrate fauna was either positively or negatively affected by temperature, respectively. In follow-up laboratory experiments temperature effects were systematically evaluated with respect to energy limitation (e.g. establishment of unlimited growth conditions), geochemistry (e.g. dynamics of DOC and nutrients), microbiology (e.g. survival of pathogens), and fauna (temperature preference and tolerance). First, with increased nutrient and organic carbon concentrations even small temperature changes revealed microbiological dynamics. Second, considerable amounts of adsorbed DOC were mobilized from sediments of different origin with an increase in temperatures. No evidence was obtained for growth of pathogenic bacteria and extended survival of viruses at elevated temperatures. Invertebrates clearly preferred natural thermal conditions (10-12°C), where their highest frequency of appearance was measured in a temperature gradient. Short-term incubations (48h) of invertebrates in temperature dose-response tests resulted in LT50 (lethal temperature) values

  12. Biomass is the main driver of changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohbeck, Madelon; Poorter, Lourens; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Bongers, Frans

    2015-05-01

    Over half of the world's forests are disturbed, and the rate at which ecosystem processes recover after disturbance is important for the services these forests can provide. We analyze the drivers' underlying changes in rates of key ecosystem processes (biomass productivity, litter productivity, actual litter decomposition, and potential litter decomposition) during secondary succession after shifting cultivation in wet tropical forest of Mexico. We test the importance of three alternative drivers of ecosystem processes: vegetation biomass (vegetation quantity hypothesis), community-weighted trait mean (mass ratio hypothesis), and functional diversity (niche complementarity hypothesis) using structural equation modeling. This allows us to infer the relative importance of different mechanisms underlying ecosystem process recovery. Ecosystem process rates changed during succession, and the strongest driver was aboveground biomass for each of the processes. Productivity of aboveground stem biomass and leaf litter as well as actual litter decomposition increased with initial standing vegetation biomass, whereas potential litter decomposition decreased with standing biomass. Additionally, biomass productivity was positively affected by community-weighted mean of specific leaf area, and potential decomposition was positively affected by functional divergence, and negatively by community-weighted mean of leaf dry matter content. Our empirical results show that functional diversity and community-weighted means are of secondary importance for explaining changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession. Instead, simply, the amount of vegetation in a site is the major driver of changes, perhaps because there is a steep biomass buildup during succession that overrides more subtle effects of community functional properties on ecosystem processes. We recommend future studies in the field of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning to separate the effects of

  13. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  14. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  15. Reviewing evidence of marine ecosystem change off South Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recent changes have been observed in South African marine ecosystems. The main pressures on these ecosystems are fishing, climate change, pollution, ocean acidification and mining. The best long-term datasets are for trends in fishing pressures but there are many gaps, especially for non-commercial species. Fishing ...

  16. Urban forest structure, ecosystem services and change in Syracuse, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Robert E. Hoehn; Allison R. Bodine; Eric J. Greenfield; Jarlath. O' Neil-Dunne

    2013-01-01

    The tree population within the City of Syracuse was assessed using a random sampling of plots in 1999, 2001 and 2009 to determine how the population and the ecosystem services these trees provide have changed over time. Ecosystem services and values for carbon sequestration, air pollution removal and changes in building energy use were derived using the i-Tree Eco...

  17. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  18. Response diversity determines the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Akira S; Furukawa, Takuya; Sasaki, Takehiro

    2013-05-01

    A growing body of evidence highlights the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem stability and the maintenance of optimal ecosystem functionality. Conservation measures are thus essential to safeguard the ecosystem services that biodiversity provides and human society needs. Current anthropogenic threats may lead to detrimental (and perhaps irreversible) ecosystem degradation, providing strong motivation to evaluate the response of ecological communities to various anthropogenic pressures. In particular, ecosystem functions that sustain key ecosystem services should be identified and prioritized for conservation action. Traditional diversity measures (e.g. 'species richness') may not adequately capture the aspects of biodiversity most relevant to ecosystem stability and functionality, but several new concepts may be more appropriate. These include 'response diversity', describing the variation of responses to environmental change among species of a particular community. Response diversity may also be a key determinant of ecosystem resilience in the face of anthropogenic pressures and environmental uncertainty. However, current understanding of response diversity is poor, and we see an urgent need to disentangle the conceptual strands that pervade studies of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Our review clarifies the links between response diversity and the maintenance of ecosystem functionality by focusing on the insurance hypothesis of biodiversity and the concept of functional redundancy. We provide a conceptual model to describe how loss of response diversity may cause ecosystem degradation through decreased ecosystem resilience. We explicitly explain how response diversity contributes to functional compensation and to spatio-temporal complementarity among species, leading to long-term maintenance of ecosystem multifunctionality. Recent quantitative studies suggest that traditional diversity measures may often be uncoupled from

  19. Ecosystem services in changing landscapes: An introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis Iverson; Cristian Echeverria; Laura Nahuelhual; Sandra. Luque

    2014-01-01

    The concept of ecosystem services from landscapes is rapidly gaining momentum as a language to communicate values and benefits to scientists and lay alike. Landscape ecology has an enormous contribution to make to this field, and one could argue, uniquely so. Tools developed or adapted for landscape ecology are being increasingly used to assist with the quantification...

  20. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroël-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel

    2015-01-01

    Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relatio......Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports...... this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem...

  1. Assessing the extent and diversity of riparian ecosystems in Sonora, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, M.L.; Nagler, P.L.; Glenn, E.P.; Valdes-Casillas, C.; Erker, J.A.; Reynolds, E.W.; Shafroth, P.B.; Gomez-Limon, E.; Jones, C.L.

    2009-01-01

    Conservation of forested riparian ecosystems is of international concern. Relatively little is known of the structure, composition, diversity, and extent of riparian ecosystems in Mexico. We used high- and low-resolution satellite imagery from 2000 to 2006, and ground-based sampling in 2006, to assess the spatial pattern, extent, and woody plant composition of riparian forests across a range of spatial scales for the state of Sonora, Mexico. For all 3rd and higher order streams, river bottomlands with riparian forests occupied a total area of 2,301 km2. Where forested bottomlands remained, on average, 34% of the area had been converted to agriculture while 39% remained forested. We estimated that the total area of riparian forest along the principal streams was 897 km2. Including fencerow trees, the total forested riparian area was 944 km2, or 0.5% of the total land area of Sonora. Ground-based sampling of woody riparian vegetation consisted of 92, 50 m radius circular plots. About 79 woody plant species were noted. The most important tree species, based on cover and frequency, were willow species Salix spp. (primarily S. goodingii and S. bonplandiana), mesquite species Prosopis spp. (primarily P. velutina), and Fremont cottonwood Populus fremontii. Woody riparian taxa at the reach scale showed a trend of increasing diversity from north to south within Sonora. Species richness was greatest in the willow-bald cypress Taxodium distichum var. mexicanum-Mexican cottonwood P. mexicana subsp. dimorphia ecosystem. The non-native tamarisk Tamarix spp. was rare, occurring at just three study reaches. Relatively natural stream flow patterns and fluvial disturbance regimes likely limit its establishment and spread. ?? 2008 Springer Science + Business Media BV.

  2. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, R.; Groot, de R.S.; Sutton, P.; Ploeg, van der S.; Anderson, S.J.; Kubiszewski, I.; Farber, S.; Turner, R.K.

    2014-01-01

    In 1997, the global value of ecosystem services was estimated to average $33 trillion/yr in 1995 $US ($46 trillion/yr in 2007 $US). In this paper, we provide an updated estimate based on updated unit ecosystem service values and land use change estimates between 1997 and 2011. We also address some

  3. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  4. Detecting forest cover and ecosystem service change using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Natural forests in Uganda have experienced both spatial and temporal modifications from different drivers which need to be monitored to assess the impacts of such changes on ecosystems and prevent related risks of reduction in ecosystem service benefits. Ground investigations may be complex because of dual ...

  5. Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Climate Change : The Economic Problem

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is both a cause and an effect of biodiversity change. Along with anthropogenic dispersion, climate change is the main driver of change in the geographical distribution of both beneficial and harmful species, crops, livestock, harvested wild species, pests, predators and pathogens. And the capacity of ecosystems to adapt to climate change depends on the diversity of species t...

  6. Impact intensities of climatic changes on grassland ecosystems in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. NJ TONUKARI

    2012-03-22

    Mar 22, 2012 ... Construction of the impact intensity model of climatic changes on grassland ecosystem ... the temperature and rainfall (Sun and Mu, 2011). Thus, the study ... of the equation, the study transformed the measurement unit Mu of.

  7. Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

  8. Soil 137Cs activity in a tropical deciduous ecosystem under pasture conversion in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Oliva, F.; Maass, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    Soil profiles of 137 Cs were measured in a tropical deciduous ecosystem under pasture conversion on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Soil samples were taken from unperturbed forest, and from pasture plots following forest conversion. The average total 137 Cs areal activity of non-eroded forest sites indicated a base level of 5 315 ± 427 Bq m -2 . On average, total areal activity on hill-tops was significantly higher (range 10-47%) in the forest than in the pastures. A significant correlation was found between the total 137 Cs areal activity and soil organic matter content (r 2 = 0.16). This correlation can be explained by a soil physical-protection hypothesis. The redistribution of 137 Cs in the landscape is explained by soil erosion processes. (author)

  9. Towards Automated Ecosystem-based Management: A case study of Northern Gulf of Mexico Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malakar, N. K.; Lary, D. J.; Allee, R.; Gould, R.; Ko, D.

    2012-12-01

    The vast and dynamic nature of large systems limit the feasibility of the frequent in situ sampling needed to establish a robust long-term database. Satellite remote sensing offers an alternative to in situ sampling and is possibly the best solution to address the data collection needs at a regional scale. In this context, we have used an unsupervised machine learning (ML) technique, called a self-organizing map (SOM), to objectively provide a classification of the US Gulf of Mexico water using a suite of ocean data products. The input data that we used in this study were the sea surface temperature, the surface chlorophyll concentration, the sea surface salinity, the euphotic depth and the temperature difference between the sea surface and the sea floor. The SOM method uses the multivariate signature of the data records to classify the data into a specified number of classes. The output of the analysis is essentially a comprehensive two-dimensional map of the Gulf of Mexico. We analyzed the individual SOM classes over a five-year period from 2005 to 2009. We then used the machine learning results to established a correspondence between the SOM classification and the completely independent Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS), which accommodates the physical, biological, and chemical information to collectively characterize marine and coastal ecosystems. The CMECS water column component information is then fused with fish count data from the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP) to produce an interactive map. The results can be used in providing online decision-support system, and tools for Ecosystem-based management.Figures shows the fish count distribution with respect to the SOM classes. The fish preference can be inferred from the plot. This information can be used to construct an online decision-support system for conservation as well as commercial purposes.

  10. Exploration and Discovery of Hydrocarbon Seeps, Coral Ecosystems, and Shipwrecks in the Deep Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shank, T. M.; Hsing, P.; Carney, R. S.; Herrera, S.; Heyl, T.; Munro, C.; Bors, E.; Kiene, W.; Vecchione, M.; Evans, A.; Irion, J.; Warren, D.; Malik, M.; Lobecker, M.; Potter, J.

    2012-12-01

    Between March 20 and April 6, 2012, the NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer served as a platform for ship-board and shore-side scientists to explore the deep Gulf of Mexico, targeting the northern West Florida Escarpment, DeSoto Canyon, the vicinity (within 11km) of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) well, and deepwater shipwrecks. We systematically explored and discovered natural hydrocarbon seeps, diverse coral ecosystems, wooden and iron-hulled shipwrecks more than 100 years old colonized by coral communities, and sperm whale habitat between 600 and 1200m. A total of sixteen dives took advantage of new and recent maps to explore and groundtruth both hard and soft-bottom habitats, from cretaceous carbonates to mounds of coral rubble. The final ROV dive successfully groundtruthed expected methane-release areas imaged by the ship's mapping systems up to 1150m above the seafloor. The source of the mapping imagery was a stream of bubbles issuing from beneath thriving seep mussel communities. We visited five sites in the Mississippi Canyon (MC) area (lease blocks MC294, MC297, MC388, MC255, and MC036; the DWH incident took place in MC252). These sites were 11.3 km SW, 6.8 km SW, 7.6 km SW, 25.7 km E, and 27.4 km to the NE of the DWH, respectively. We used high-definition imaging systems on the Little Hercules ROV and Seirios camera platform to document more than 130 coral colonies and over 400 associated individual animals to continue to assessing the impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. All of these efforts were conducted to provide fundamental knowledge of unknown and poorly known regions, ecosystems, and items of historical significance in the deep Gulf of Mexico.

  11. The ecosystem baseline for particle flux in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.L.C. Giering

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Response management and damage assessment during and after environmental disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon (DWH oil spill require an ecological baseline and a solid understanding of the main drivers of the ecosystem. During the DWH event, a large fraction of the spilled oil was transported to depth via sinking marine snow, a routing of spilled oil unexpected to emergency response planners. Because baseline knowledge of particle export in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and how it varies spatially and temporally was limited, we conducted a detailed assessment of the potential drivers of deep (~1400 m depth particle fluxes during 2012–2016 using sediment traps at three contrasting sites in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: near the DWH site, at an active natural oil seep site, and at a site considered typical for background conditions. The DWH site, located ~70 km from the Mississippi River Delta, showed flux patterns that were strongly linked to the Mississippi nitrogen discharge and an annual subsequent surface bloom. Fluxes carried clear signals of combustion products, which likely originated from pyrogenic sources that were transported offshore via the Mississippi plume. The seep and reference sites were more strongly influenced by the open Gulf of Mexico, did not show a clear seasonal flux pattern, and their overall sedimentation rates were lower than those at the DWH site. At the seep site, based on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon data, we observed indications of three different pathways for “natural” oiled-snow sedimentation: scavenging by sinking particles at depth, weathering at the surface before incorporation into sinking particles, and entry into the food web and subsequent sinking in form of detritus. Overall, sedimentation rates at the three sites were markedly different in quality and quantity owing to varying degrees of riverine and oceanic influences, including natural seepage and contamination by combustion products.

  12. Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

    2018-05-27

    Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  13. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

  14. Climate Change in U.S. South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Fisheries Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roffer, M. A.; Hernandez, D. L.; Lamkin, J. T.; Pugliese, R.; Reichert, M.; Hall, C.

    2016-02-01

    A review of the recent evidence that climate change is affecting marine ecosystems in the U.S. fishery management zones of the South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions will be presented. This will include affects on the living marine resources (including fish, invertebrates, marine mammals and turtles), fisheries, habitat and people. Emphasis will be given on the effects that impact managed species and the likely new challenges that they present to fishery managers. The evidence is being derived from the results of the "Climate Variability and Fisheries Workshop: Setting Research Priorities for the Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic, and Caribbean Regions," October 26-28, 2015 in St. Petersburg Beach, Florida. Commonalities and regional differences will be presented in terms of how climate variability is likely to impact distribution, catch, catchability, socioeconomics, and management.

  15. Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2015-01-01

    Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

  16. Changes in rainfall patterns in Mediterranean ecosystems: the MIND project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papale D

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Will Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems be affected by the expected changes in precipitation regimes? If so, by how much and in which direction? These questions are at the basis of the research performed in context of the EU MIND project, whose key objectives were: i to investigate the potential effects of increasing drought on Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems at the process, ecosystem and regional scales and ii to assess ecosystem vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns. A network of experimental study sites has been created in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, where field manipulations alter the amount of water available to the ecosystem. The most up-to-date methods of ecophysiology, micrometeorology, soil ecology and remote sensing have been used to elucidate the mechanisms that regulate the response of vegetation and soil to changes in water availability. This information is providing the basis for the implementation and validation of simulation models capable of predicting the drought response of Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems, and their vulnerability to future climate change, on a larger scale. The out-coming results are elucidating how water availability affects plant ecophysiological processes, the dynamics of soil carbon and the overall exchange of mass and energy between the land and the atmosphere. This paper focuses on some of the important, yet preliminary, results on C and energy fluxes that have been obtained at the large scale troughfall manipulation experiment (Tolfa, Italy, in a forest dominated by Arbutus unedo L.

  17. Impacts of land-use change to ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, Tom; Holcombe, Tracy R.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing human populations on the landscape and globe coincide with increasing demands for food, energy, and other natural resources, with generally negative impacts to wildlife habitat, air and water quality, and natural scenery. Here we define and describe the impacts of land-use change on ecosystem services – the services that ecosystems provide humans such as filtering air and water, providing food, resources, recreation, and esthetics. We show how the human footprint is rapidly expanding due to population growth, demand for resources, and globalization. Increased trade and transportation has brought all the continents back together, creating new challenges for conserving native species and ecosystems.

  18. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

    2017-01-01

    Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

  19. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses....... These changes have important impacts on the chemical and biological processes that are at the root of marine food webs, influencing their structure, function and biodiversity. Here we summarise current knowledge on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and provide an overview of fundamental factors...... that structure ecosystem biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. We also discuss climateassociated effects on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and discuss implications for the functioning of Arctic marine food webs. Based on the complexity and regional character of Arctic ecosystem reponses...

  20. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1994-01-01

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  1. Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semaan, Leslie

    The text explores Mexico's history, geography, art, religion, and lifestyles in the context of its complex economy. The text focuses on Mexico's economy and reasons for its current situation. Part I of this teaching unit includes: Teacher Overview, Why Study Mexico, Mexico Fact Sheet, Map of Mexico, the Land and Climate, History, Government,…

  2. Changing Forest Values and Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston

    1994-01-01

    There is substantial evidence that we are currently in a period of rapid and significant change in forest values. Some have charged that managing forests in ways that are responsive to diverse and changing forest values is the main challenge faced by public forest managers. To tackle this challenge, we need to address the following questions: (1) What is the nature of...

  3. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

    2016-08-11

    Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

  4. Comparative distribution of plutonium in contaminated ecosystems at Oak Ridge, Tennessee and Los Alamos, New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahlman, R.C.; Garten, C.T. Jr.; Hakonson, T.E.

    1977-04-01

    Most of the plutonium entering aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the United States originates from nuclear weapons testing and from the burnup of the SNAP-9A satellite power source (Hanson 1975). But in the future, local ecosystems may receive small quantities of Pu released from nuclear facilities such as those at Oak Ridge, Los Alamos and other sites. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the distribution of Pu in two contaminated ecosystems which are representative of humid and semi-arid environments of the United States. Results summarized in terms of inventories for the respective ecosystems several decades after initial contamination are used to anticipate the longer term (i.e., decades or centuries) behavior of Pu in the environment. One important question is whether the availability of this element to plants and other organisms will change after it is subjected to weathering and ecological processes of the environment. It is pointed out that potential radiological toxicity and long physical half-lives of Pu dictate that its behavior in ecosystems be understood

  5. Comparative distribution of plutonium in contaminated ecosystems at Oak Ridge, Tennessee and Los Alamos, New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahlman, R.C.; Garten, C.T. Jr.; Hakonson, T.E.

    1977-04-01

    Most of the plutonium entering aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the United States originates from nuclear weapons testing and from the burnup of the SNAP-9A satellite power source (Hanson 1975). But in the future, local ecosystems may receive small quantities of Pu released from nuclear facilities such as those at Oak Ridge, Los Alamos and other sites. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the distribution of Pu in two contaminated ecosystems which are representative of humid and semi-arid environments of the United States. Results summarized in terms of inventories for the respective ecosystems several decades after initial contamination are used to anticipate the longer term (i.e., decades or centuries) behavior of Pu in the environment. One important question is whether the availability of this element to plants and other organisms will change after it is subjected to weathering and ecological processes of the environment. It is pointed out that potential radiological toxicity and long physical half-lives of Pu dictate that its behavior in ecosystems be understood.

  6. [Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1993-01-01

    This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place

  7. Nitrogen cycling in heathland ecosystems and effects of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise Christoffersen

    Terrestrial ecosystems are currently exposed to climatic and air quality changes with increased atmospheric CO2, increased temperature and periodical droughts. At a temperate heath site this was investigated in a unique full factorial in situ experiment (CLIMAITE). The climate change treatments...

  8. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  9. Butterfly response and successional change following ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy E. M. Waltz; W. Wallace Covington

    2001-01-01

    The Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) can be useful indicators of ecosystem change as a result of a disturbance event. We monitored changes in butterfly abundance in two restoration treatment units paired with adjacent untreated forest at the Mt. Trumbull Resource Conservation Area in northern Arizona. Restoration treatments included thinning trees to density levels...

  10. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater-influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

  11. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater‐influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2

  12. [Dynamic changes of Ruoergai Plateau wetland ecosystem service value].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Yun; Lü, Xian-Guo; Shen, Song-Ping

    2009-05-01

    Based on the satellite remote sensing data acquired in 1975 and 2006, and by using the assessment method of ecosystem service value, the dynamic changes of physical production value, gas regulation value, and water storage value of Ruoergai Plateau wetland ecosystem in 1975-2006 were studied. During study period, the total value of the three services decreased from 19.59 billion RMB Yuan to 12.38 billion Yuan RMB, among which, physical production value increased by 0.302 billion RMB Yuan, while the gas regulation and water storage value decreased by 7.507 billion RMB Yuan. The benefit from the increase of physical production was much less than the loss of ecosystem degradation. Overgrazing induced the biomass reduction and soil deterioration, resulting in the decline of Ruoergai Plateau wetland ecosystem service value and service capacity.

  13. Hydrocarbon-Based Communities in the Ultra-Deep Gulf of Mexico: Protecting the Asphalt Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, I. R.; Sahling, H.

    2016-02-01

    The term `asphalt volcanism' was coined to describe marine sites where extrusions of highly degraded oil form large expanses of hard substratum, which is then colonized by chemosynthetic fauna and sessile invertebrates. A site named `Chapopote', a knoll at 3200m in the southern Gulf of Mexico, was described as the type specimen of asphalt volcanism in 2003. A joint German-Mexican-U.S. expedition on the German ship F/S METEOR returned to the region in February and March, 2015 to quantify the extent and characteristics of Chapopote and other asphalt-hosting knolls using the SEAL AUV, QUEST ROV, shipborne acoustics, and autonomous instrument landers. Preliminary findings have greatly expanded the number of confirmed asphalt volcanoes, as well as sites where seepage was detected as gas flares in the water column. The morphology of asphalt flows, which was investigated using large-scale photo-mosaicking techniques, indicated that they form with a complex interplay of gravity flows, buoyant uplift, and chemical weathering. An unexpected finding was the occurrence of gas hydrate mounds, some exceeding 1000 m2 in area and 10 m in relief. Gas hydrate forms almost instantly at ambient depths and temperatures and there was evidence that large plugs of hydrate that can rapidly breach the seafloor. Older mounds are colonized by massive tubeworm aggregations that may serve to stabilize the hydrate. Mexico recently announced the first energy production lease sales in their `ultra-deep' offshore. In contrast to the U.S. Gulf, where extensive safeguards for chemosynthetic communities have been in place for over 25 years, few existing protocols protect the Mexican deep-sea asphalt ecosystem. The combination of extensive asphalt pavements and exposed gas hydrate also pose unusual hazards for exploration piston coring or drilling operations. The time is ripe to consider what conservation model would best serve the region.

  14. Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    The background notes on Mexico provide text and recent statistical information on the geography, population, government, economy, and foreign relations, specifically the North American Free Trade Agreement with US. The 1992 population is estimated at 89 million of which 60% are mestizo (Indian-Spanish), 30% are American Indian, 9% are Caucasian, and 1% are other. 90% are Roman Catholic. There are 8 years of compulsory education. Infant mortality is 30/1000 live births. Life expectancy for males is 68 years and 76 years for females. The labor force is comprised of 30% in services, 24% in agriculture and fishing, 19% in manufacturing, 13% in commerce, 7% in construction, 4% in transportation and communication, and .4% in mining. There are 31 states and a federal district. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was $3200 in 1991. Military expenditures were .5% of GDP in 1991. The average inflation rate is 19%. Mexico City with 20 million is the largest urban center in the world. In recent years, the economy has been restructured with market oriented reforms; the result has been a growth of GDP of 3.6% in 1991 from 2% in 1987. Dependence on oil exports has decreased. There has been privatization and deregulation of state-owned companies. Subsidies to inefficient companies have been stopped. Tariff rates were reduced. The financial debt has been reduced and turned into a surplus of .8% in 1992. Mexico's foreign debt has been reduced from its high in 1987 of $107 billion. Agricultural reforms have been ongoing for 50 years. Land was redistributed, but standards of living and productivity have improved only slightly. Rural land tenure regulations have been changed, and other economic reforms are expected. Mexico engages in ad hoc international groups and is selective about membership in international organizations.

  15. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  16. Land cover changes in central Sonora Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diego Valdez-Zamudio; Alejandro Castellanos-Villegas; Stuart Marsh

    2000-01-01

    Remote sensing techniques have been demonstrated to be very effective tools to help detect, analyze, and evaluate land cover changes in natural areas of the world. Changes in land cover can generally be attributed to either natural or anthropogenic forces. Multitemporal satellite imagery and airborne videography were used to detect, analyze, and evaluate land cover...

  17. Plant community mediation of ecosystem responses to global change factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churchill, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    Human alteration of the numerous environmental drivers affecting ecosystem processes is unprecedented in the last century, including changes in climate regimes and rapid increases in the availability of biologically active nitrogen (N). Plant communities may offer stabilizing or amplifying feedbacks mediating potential ecosystem responses to these alterations, and my research seeks to examine the conditions associated with when plant feedbacks are important for ecosystem change. My dissertation research focused on the unintended consequences of N deposition into natural landscapes, including alpine ecosystems which are particularly susceptible to adverse environmental impacts. In particular, I examined alpine plant and soil responses to N deposition 1) across multiple spatial scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, 2) among diverse plant communities associated with unique environmental conditions common in the alpine of this region, and 3) among ecosystem pools of N contributing to stabilization of N inputs within those communities. I found that communities responded to inputs of N differently, often associated with traits of dominant plant species but these responses were intimately linked with the abiotic conditions of each independent community. Even so, statistical models predicting metrics of N processing in the alpine were improved by encompassing both abiotic and biotic components of the main community types.

  18. Ecosystem Health Disorders - changing perspectives in clinical medicine and nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2014-01-01

    The inseparability of people from their ecosystem without biological change is increasingly clear. The discrete species concept is becoming more an approximation as the interconnectedness of all things, animate and inanimate, becomes more apparent. Yet this was evident even to our earliest Homo Sapiens sapiens ancestors as they hunted and gathered from one locality to another and migrated across the globe. During a rather short 150-200,000 years of ancestral history, we have changed the aeons-old planet and our ecology with dubious sustainability. As we have changed the ecosystems of which we are a part, with their opportunities for shelter, rest, ambulation, discourse, food, recreation and their sensory inputs, we have changed our shared biology and our health prospects. The rate of ecosystem change has increased quantitatively and qualitatively and so will that of our health patterns, depending on our resilience and how linear, non-linear or fractal-like the linkage. Our health-associated ecosystem trajectories are uncertain. The interfaces between us and our environment are blurred, but comprise time, biorhythms, prokaryotic organisms, sensory (auditory, visual, tactile, taste and smell), conjoint movement, endocrine with various external hormonal through food and contaminants, the reflection of soil and rock composition in the microbes, plants, insects and animals that we eat (our biogeology) and much more. We have sought ways to optimise our health through highly anthropocentric means, which have proven inadequate. Accumulated ecosystem change may now overwhelm our health. On these accounts, more integrative approaches and partnerships for health care practice are required.

  19. Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Constable, Andrew; Wotherspoon, Simon; Raymond, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. PMID:23405116

  20. Detecting Forest Cover and Ecosystem Service Change Using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Mpigi, than in Butambala by 5.99%, disturbed forest was 3%, farm land ... climate change impacts on ecosystem services requires more attention and ... While these conceptual models usually assume relatively a causal-effect ... images with relatively low cloud cover or free-cloud imagery during the time period of interest.

  1. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Pauli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  2. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Pauli

    2016-01-01

    Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  3. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.E. Schindler; X. Augerot; E. Fleishman; N.J. Mantua; B. Riddell; M. Ruckelshaus; J. Seeb; M. Webster

    2008-01-01

    As climate change intensifies, there is increasing interest in developing models that reduce uncertainties in projections of global climate and refine these projections to finer spatial scales. Forecasts of climate impacts on ecosystems are far more challenging and their uncertainties even larger because of a limited understanding of physical controls on biological...

  4. Spatial and temporal land cover changes in Terminos Lagoon Reserve, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Galera, Ernesto; Piera, Jaume; López, Pilar

    2010-06-01

    Terminos Lagoon ecosystem is the largest fluvial-lagoon estuarine system in the country and one of the most important reserves of coastal flora and fauna in Mexico. Since the seventies, part of the main infrastructure for country's oil extraction is located in this area. Its high biodiversity has motivated different type of studies including deforestation processes and land use planning. In this work we used satellite image analysis to determine land cover changes in the area from 1974 to 2001. Our results indicate that tropical forest and mangroves presented the most extensive losses in its coverage. In contrast, urban areas and induced grassland increased considerably. In 2001 more than half of the ecosystem area showed changes from its original land cover, and a third part of it was deteriorated. The main causes of deforestation were both the increase in grassland and the growth of urban areas. However, deforestation was attenuated by natural reforestation and plant canopy recovery. We conclude that the introduction of cattle and urban development were the main causes for the land cover changes; however, the oil industry activity located in the ecosystem, has promoted indirectly to urban growth and rancher boom.

  5. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....

  6. From Ecosystem-Scale to Litter Biochemistry: Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Coastal Wetlands of the Western Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louchouarn, P.; Kaiser, K.; Norwood, M. J.; Sterne, A. M. E.; Armitage, A. R.; HighField, W.; Brody, S.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape-level shifts in plant species distribution and abundance can fundamentally change the structure and services of an ecosystem. Such shifts are occurring within mangrove-marsh ecotones of the U.S., where over the last few decades, relatively mild winters have led to mangrove expansion into areas previously occupied by salt marsh plants. Here we present the synthesis of 3 years of multidisciplinary work to quantify ecosystem shifts at the regional scale, along the entire Texas (USA) coast of the western Gulf of Mexico, and transcribe these shifts into carbon (C) sequestration mass balances. We classified Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper images using artificial neural networks to quantify shifts in areal coverage of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) and salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora and other grass and forb species) over 20 years across the Texas Gulf coast. Between 1990 and 2010, mangrove area expanded by 74% (+16 km2). Concurrently, salt marsh area experienced a net loss of 24% (-78 km2). Most of that loss was due to conversion to tidal flats or water, likely a result of relative sea level rise, with only 6% attributable to mangrove expansion. Although relative carbon load (per surface area) are statistically larger for mangrove wetlands, total C loads are larger for salt marsh wetlands due to their greater aerial coverage. The entire loss of above ground C (~7.0·109 g), was offset by salt marsh expansion (2.0·109 g) and mangrove expansion (5.6·109 g) over the study period. Concurrently, the net loss in salt marsh coverage led to a loss in below ground C accumulation capacity of 2.0·109 g/yr, whereas the net expansion of mangrove wetlands led to an added below ground C accumulation capacity of 0.4·109 g/yr. Biomarker data show that neutral carbohydrates and lignin contributed 30-70% and 10-40% of total C, respectively, in plant litter and surface sediments. Sharp declines of carbohydrate yields with depth occur parallel to increases in lignin

  7. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  8. Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at “Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve”, in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide. PMID:27611802

  9. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D.; Bruno, John F.; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Altieri, Andrew H.; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C.; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-01-01

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems. PMID:25104138

  10. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D; Bruno, John F; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C; Altieri, Andrew H; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-08-08

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

  11. Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2011-12-01

    Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

  12. FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND GLOBAL CHANGE: THE CASE STUDY OF INSUBRIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pautasso

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems face multiple challenges due to climate change, invasive species, urbanization, land use change and the interactions between these global change drivers. This review provides an overview of such challenges for the case study of Insubria. Insubria is a region on the Southern side of the European Alps, famous for its stunning lakes (e.g., Como, Garda, Lugano, Maggiore, blessed by a relatively mild and humid climate, and shaped by the geologic fault line between the African and European plates. Global change impacts in Insubria pose a threat to its biodiversity and chestnut woodlands, particularly through modified winter forest fire regimes. Insubric biodiversity conservation, in turn, is essential to counteract the effects of climate change. Sustainable management of Insubric forests is made more difficult by rural abandonment, air pollution and invasive exotic species. There is a need to develop reliable long-term bio-indicators and to predict the shift of Insubric species, ecosystems and tree-lines due to rapid climate changes. Insubric studies on forests and global change call for enhanced international collaboration in forest management and research. Interdisciplinary approaches are needed to move from studies of single global change drivers to experiments, scenarios and models taking into account their combination and our responses to global change.

  13. Ecosystem service trade-offs, perceived drivers, and sustainability in contrasting agroecosystems in central Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos E. González-Esquivel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The ability of agroecosystems to provide food ultimately depends on the regulating and supporting ecosystem services that underpin their functioning, such as the regulation of soil quality, water quality, soil erosion, pests, and pollinators. However, there are trade-offs between provisioning and regulating or supporting services, whose nature at the farm and plot scales is poorly understood. We analyzed data at the farm level for two agroecosystems with contrasting objectives in central Mexico: one aimed at staple crop production for self-subsistence and local markets, the other directed to a cash crop for export markets. Bivariate and multivariate trade-offs were analyzed for different crop management strategies (conventional, organic, traditional, crop rotation and their underpinning socioeconomic drivers. There was a clear trade-off between crop yield and soil quality in self-subsistence systems. However, other expected trade-offs between yields and soil quality did not always occur, likely because of the overall good soils of the region and the low to medium input profile of most farms. Trade-offs were highly dependent on farm-specific agricultural practices; organic, traditional, and rotation management systems generally showed smaller trade-offs between yield and soil quality, pest control, and biodiversity than did conventional management systems. Perceived drivers reported by farmers included increasing prices for cash crops, rising costs of inputs, and extreme climatic events (e.g., drought, hail, frost. Farmers did not identify the regulation of soil quality, water quality, soil erosion, pests, or pollinators as important constraints. Although acceptable yields could be maintained irrespective of key regulating and supporting services according to these perceptions, current levels of soil erosion and nutrient runoff are likely to have important negative effects at the watershed scale. Sustainability in both agroecosystems could be

  14. Food habits of rodents inhabiting arid and semi-arid ecosystems of central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G.; Parmenter, Robert R.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we describe seasonal dietary composition for 15 species of rodents collected in all major habitats on the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (Socorro County) in central New Mexico. A comprehensive literature review of food habits for these species from throughout their distribution also is provided. We collected rodents in the field during winter, spring and late summer in 1998 from six communities: riparian cottonwood forest; piñon-juniper woodland; juniper-oak savanna; mesquite savanna; short-grass steppe; and Chihuahuan Desert scrubland. Rodents included Spermophilus spilosoma (Spotted Ground Squirrel), Perognathus flavescens (Plains Pocket Mouse), Perognathus flavus (Silky Pocket Mouse), Dipodomys merriami (Merriam’s Kangaroo Rat), Dipodomys ordii (Ord’s Kangaroo Rat), Dipodomys spectabilis (Banner-tailed Kangaroo Rat), Reithrodontomys megalotis (Western Harvest Mouse), Peromyscus boylii (Brush Mouse), Peromyscus eremicus (Cactus Mouse), Peromyscus leucopus (White-footed Mouse), Peromyscus truei (Piñon Mouse), Onychomys arenicola (Mearn’s Grasshopper Mouse), Onychomys leucogaster (Northern Grasshopper Mouse), Neotoma albigula/leucodon (White-throated Woodrats), and Neotoma micropus (Southern Plains Woodrat). We collected stomach contents of all species, and cheek-pouch contents of heteromyids, and quantified them in the laboratory. We determined seasonal diets in each habitat by calculating mean percentage volumes of seeds, arthropods and green vegetation (plant leaves and stems) for each species of rodent. Seeds consumed by each rodent were identified to genus, and often species, and quantified by frequency counts. Comparisons of diets between and among species of rodents, seasons, and ecosystems were also examined. We provide an appendix of all plant taxa documented.

  15. What is Novel About Novel Ecosystems: Managing Change in an Ever-Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truitt, Amy M.; Granek, Elise F.; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Goldsmith, Kaitlin A.; Jordan, Meredith P.; Yazzie, Kimberly C.

    2015-06-01

    Influenced by natural climatic, geological, and evolutionary changes, landscapes and the ecosystems within are continuously changing. In addition to these natural pressures, anthropogenic drivers have increasingly influenced ecosystems. Whether affected by natural or anthropogenic processes, ecosystems, ecological communities, and ecosystem functioning are dynamic and can lead to "novel" or "emerging" ecosystems. Current literature identifies several definitions of these ecosystems but lacks an unambiguous definition and framework for categorizing what constitutes a novel ecosystem and for informing decisions around best management practices. Here we explore the various definitions used for novel ecosystems, present an unambiguous definition, and propose a framework for identifying the most appropriate management option. We identify and discuss three approaches for managing novel ecosystems: managing against, tolerating, and managing for these systems, and we provide real-world examples of each approach. We suggest that this framework will allow managers to make thoughtful decisions about which strategy is most appropriate for each unique situation, to determine whether the strategy is working, and to facilitate decision-making when it is time to modify the management approach.

  16. North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luczak, C; Beaugrand, G; Lindley, J A; Dewarumez, J-M; Dubois, P J; Kirby, R R

    2012-10-23

    A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

  17. Climate Change Altered Disturbance Regimes in High Elevation Pine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, J. A.

    2004-12-01

    Insects in aggregate are the greatest cause of forest disturbance. Outbreaks of both native and exotic insects can be spectacular events in both their intensity and spatial extent. In the case of native species, forest ecosystems have co-evolved (or at least co-adapted) in ways that incorporate these disturbances into the normal cycle of forest maturation and renewal. The time frame of response to changing climate, however, is much shorter for insects (typically one year) than for their host forests (decades or longer). As a result, outbreaks of forest insects, particularly bark beetles, are occurring at unprecedented levels throughout western North America, resulting in the loss of biodiversity and potentially entire ecosystems. In this talk, I will describe one such ecosystem, the whitebark pine association at high elevations in the north-central Rocky Mountains of the United States. White bark pines are keystone species, which in consort with Clark's nutcracker, build entire ecosystems at high elevations. These ecosystems provide valuable ecological services, including the distribution and abundance of water resources. I will briefly describe the keystone nature of whitebark pine and the historic role of mountain pine beetle disturbance in these ecosystems. The mountain pine beetle is the most important outbreak insect in forests of the western United States. Although capable of spectacular outbreak events, in historic climate regimes, outbreak populations were largely restricted to lower elevation pines; for example, lodgepole and ponderosa pines. The recent series of unusually warm years, however, has allowed this insect to expand its range into high elevation, whitebark pine ecosystems with devastating consequences. The aspects of mountain pine beetle thermal ecology that has allowed it to capitalize so effectively on a warming climate will be discussed. A model that incorporates critical thermal attributes of the mountain pine beetle's life cycle was

  18. Litter drives ecosystem and plant community changes in cattail invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrer, Emily C; Goldberg, Deborah E

    2009-03-01

    Invaded systems are commonly associated with a change in ecosystem processes and a decline in native species diversity; however, many different causal pathways linking invasion, ecosystem change, and native species decline could produce this pattern. The initial driver of environmental change may be anthropogenic, or it may be the invader itself; and the mechanism behind native species decline may be the human-induced environmental change, competition from the invader, or invader-induced environmental change (non-trophic effects). We examined applicability of each of these alternate pathways in Great Lakes coastal marshes invaded by hybrid cattail (Typha x glauca). In a survey including transects in three marshes, we found that T. x glauca was associated with locally high soil nutrients, low light, and large amounts of litter, and that native diversity was highest in areas of shallow litter depth. We tested whether live T. x glauca plants or their litter induced changes in the environment and in diversity with a live plant and litter transplant experiment. After one year, Typha litter increased soil NH4+ and N mineralization twofold, lowered light levels, and decreased the abundance and diversity of native plants, while live Typha plants had no effect on the environment or on native plants. This suggests that T. x glauca, through its litter production, can cause the changes in ecosystem processes that we commonly attribute to anthropogenic nutrient loading and that T. x glauca does not displace native species through competition for resources, but rather affects them non-trophically through its litter. Moreover, because T. x glauca plants were taller when grown with their own litter, we suggest that this invader may produce positive feedbacks and change the environment in ways that benefit itself and may promote its own invasion.

  19. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Nancy B.; Groffman, Peter M; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Tallis, Heather

    2016-01-01

    The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

  20. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

  1. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

    2012-01-01

    Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

  2. Impact of climate change on carbon cycle in freshwater ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kankaala, P.; Ojala, A.; Tulonen, T.; Haapamaeki, J.; Arvola, L. [Helsinki Univ., Lammi (Finland). Lammi Biological Station

    1996-12-31

    The impacts of the expected climate change on Finnish lake ecosystems were studied with the biota of the mesohumic Lake Paeaejaervi, southern Finland. Experimental conditions, from small-scale experiments on single species level to a large-scale ecosystem manipulation, were established to simulate directly the future climate and/or loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area. The experimental studies were accomplished by modelling the carbon flow in the pelagic food web as well as the growth of littoral macrophytes. The main hypothese tested were as follows: As a consequence of the climate change (rising temperature and increasing precipitation) the loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area to the lake will increase. In the pelagic zone this will be first reflected i higher productivity of primary producers and bacteria, but will later affect the entire food chain. Increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and ambient temperature as well as longer growing season will enhance the overall productivity of littoral macrophytes. The higher productivity of the littoral zone will be reflected in the pelagic zone an thus may change the whole ecosystem of the lake

  3. Impact of climate change on carbon cycle in freshwater ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kankaala, P; Ojala, A; Tulonen, T; Haapamaeki, J; Arvola, L [Helsinki Univ., Lammi (Finland). Lammi Biological Station

    1997-12-31

    The impacts of the expected climate change on Finnish lake ecosystems were studied with the biota of the mesohumic Lake Paeaejaervi, southern Finland. Experimental conditions, from small-scale experiments on single species level to a large-scale ecosystem manipulation, were established to simulate directly the future climate and/or loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area. The experimental studies were accomplished by modelling the carbon flow in the pelagic food web as well as the growth of littoral macrophytes. The main hypothese tested were as follows: As a consequence of the climate change (rising temperature and increasing precipitation) the loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area to the lake will increase. In the pelagic zone this will be first reflected i higher productivity of primary producers and bacteria, but will later affect the entire food chain. Increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and ambient temperature as well as longer growing season will enhance the overall productivity of littoral macrophytes. The higher productivity of the littoral zone will be reflected in the pelagic zone an thus may change the whole ecosystem of the lake

  4. Technological change and petroleum exploration in the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Managi, Shunsuke; Opaluch, J.J.; Jin Di; Grigalunas, T.A.

    2005-01-01

    We examine the impact of technological change on oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico from 1947 to 1998, using a unique micro-data set. An index variable for technological change is constructed to capture both the number and significance of technological innovations in the offshore industry over the study period. Empirical models of exploration-discovery and of drilling cost are used to assess the effect of technological change at both the field level and the regional level. Our results indicate that technological change played a very significant role in the offshore industry over the past 50 years, increasing reserves and lowering cost. Although depletion effect was dominant over the first two decades, the effect of technological change was able to offset that of resource depletion over the entire 50-year study period

  5. Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, R. A.

    2006-12-01

    Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.

  6. The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity, REDD+ and climate change in mangrove ecosystems of Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiberto Pollisco

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves are trees and shrubs that grow in saline coastal habitats. They occupy large stretches of the sub-tropical and tropical coastlines around the world. They not only provide valuable goods such as timber, fish and medicinal plants but also vital ecological services, such as prevention of coastal erosion. They also help buffer coastal communities from storms and floods. During the ASEAN Conference on Biodiversity held in Singapore in 2009, Ellison reported that mangrove forests in South East Asia are among the highest biodiversity resources in the world, occupying an area of 60.9 x 102 km2. Unfortunately, the region also has the highest rates of mangrove loss in the world, losing 628 km2 per year in two decades. In many parts of the world, where mangrove forests have been cleared, there are now problems of erosion and siltation, and loss of life and property have occurred due to destructive hurricanes, storms and tsunamis. The complex relationship between climate change and mangrove ecosystems can be seen from two different angles. On the one hand, mangrove ecosystems have a critical function in combating climate change; on the other hand, they are affected by climate change. The values of ecosystems vary according to local biophysical and ecological circumstances and the social, economic and cultural context. Intangible values, which may be reflected in society’s willingness to pay to conserve particular species or landscapes, or to protect common resources, must be considered alongside more tangible values such as food or timber to provide a complete economic picture. This has important implications for mangrove conservation strategies and suggests that the preservation of contiguous areas is preferable to patches that are spatially dispersed.

  7. Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society (CLICHE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weckström, J.; Korhola, A.; Väliranta, M.; Seppä, H.; Luoto, M.; Tuittila, E.-S.; Leppäranta, M.; Kahilainen, K.; Saarinen, J.; Heikkinen, H.

    2012-04-01

    The predicted climate warming has raised many questions and concerns about its impacts on the environment and society. As a respond to the need of holistic studies comprising both of these areas, The Academy of Finland launched The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA 2011-2014) in spring 2010 with the main aim to focus on the interaction between the environment and society. Ultimately 11 national consortium projects were funded (total budget 12 million EUR). Here we shortly present the main objectives of the largest consortium project "Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society" (CLICHE). The CLICHE consortium comprises eight interrelated work packages (treeline, diversity, peatlands, snow, lakes, fish, tourism, and traditional livelihoods), each led by a prominent research group and a team leader. The research consortium has three main overall objectives: 1) Investigate, map and model the past, present and future climate change-induced changes in central ecosystems of the European Arctic with unprecedented precision 2) Deepen our understanding of the basic principles of ecosystem and social resilience and dynamics; identify key taxa, structures or processes that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour, using analogues from the past (e.g. Holocene Thermal Maximum, Medieval Warm Period), experiments, observations and models 3) Develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change on local communities, traditional livelihoods, fisheries, and tourism industry, and promote sustainable development of local community structures and enhance the quality of life of local human populations. As the project has started only recently no final results are available yet. However, the fieldwork as well as the co-operation between the research teams has thus far been very successful. Thus, the expectations for the final outcome of the project

  8. Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986–1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture. PMID:26692890

  9. Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M; Riosmena, Fernando

    2015-11-01

    Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

  10. Variations of net ecosystem production due to seasonal precipitation differences in a tropical dry forest of northwest Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco, Vivian S.; Garatuza-Payán, Jaime; Yépez, Enrico A.; Watts, Christopher J.; Rodríguez, Julio C.; Robles-Morua, Agustin; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2015-10-01

    Due to their large extent and high primary productivity, tropical dry forests (TDF) are important contributors to atmospheric carbon exchanges in subtropical and tropical regions. In northwest Mexico, a bimodal precipitation regime that includes winter precipitation derived from Pacific storms and summer precipitation from the North American monsoon (NAM) couples water availability with ecosystem processes. We investigated the net ecosystem production of a TDF ecosystem using a 4.5 year record of water and carbon fluxes obtained from the eddy covariance method complemented with remotely sensed data. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer that respiration is mainly due to decomposition of soil organic matter accumulated from the prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the NAM. Precipitation characteristics during NAM have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF into the fall season. We identified that a threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of monsoon precipitation leads to a switch in the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This monsoonal precipitation threshold is typically exceeded one out of every 2 years. The close coupling of winter and summer periods with respect to carbon fluxes suggests that the annual carbon balance is dependent on precipitation amounts in both seasons in TDF ecosystems.

  11. 76 FR 61695 - Gulf of Mexico Regional Ecosystem Restoration Strategy (Preliminary)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-05

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OA-2011-0798; FRL-9475-6] Gulf of Mexico Regional... of Availability. SUMMARY: This notice announces the availability of the Gulf of Mexico Regional... http://www.regulations.gov in the docket identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-2011-0798. President...

  12. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  13. Applying a Systems Approach to Monitoring and Assessing Climate Change Mitigation Potential in Mexico's Forest Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olguin-Alvarez, M. I.; Wayson, C.; Fellows, M.; Birdsey, R.; Smyth, C.; Magnan, M.; Dugan, A.; Mascorro, V.; Alanís, A.; Serrano, E.; Kurz, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2012, the Mexican government through its National Forestry Commission, with support from the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, the Forest Services of Canada and USA, the SilvaCarbon Program and research institutes in Mexico, has made important progress towards the use of carbon dynamics models ("gain-loss" approach) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions monitoring and projections into the future. Here we assess the biophysical mitigation potential of policy alternatives identified by the Mexican Government (e.g. net zero deforestation rate, sustainable forest management) based on a systems approach that models carbon dynamics in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products and substitution benefits in two contrasting states of Mexico. We provide key messages and results derived from the use of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector and a harvested wood products model, parameterized with input data from Mexicós National Forest Monitoring System (e.g. forest inventories, remote sensing, disturbance data). The ultimate goal of this tri-national effort is to develop data and tools for carbon assessment in strategic landscapes in North America, emphasizing the need to include multiple sectors and types of collaborators (scientific and policy-maker communities) to design more comprehensive portfolios for climate change mitigation in accordance with the Paris Agreement of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (e.g. Mid-Century Strategy, NDC goals).

  14. Investigating the biophysical controls on mass and energy cycling in Southwestern US ecosystems using the New Mexico Elevation Gradient of flux towers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krofcheck, D. J.; Morillas, L.; Litvak, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    Drylands and semi-arid ecosystems cover over 45% of the global landmass. These biomes have been shown to be extremely sensitive to changes in climate, specifically decreases in precipitation and increases in air temperature. Therefore, inter-annual variability in climate has the potential to dramatically impact the carbon budget at regional and global scales. In the Southwestern US, we are in a unique position to investigate these relationships by leveraging eight years of data from the New Mexico Elevation Gradient (NMEG), eight flux towers that span six representative biomes across the semi-arid Southwest. From C4 desert grasslands to subalpine mixed conifer forests, the NMEG flux towers use identical instrumentsand processing, and afford a unique opportunity to explore patterns in biome-specific ecosystem processes and climate sensitivity. Over the last eight years the gradient has experienced climatic variability that span from wet years to an episodic megadrought. Here we report the effects of this extreme inter-annual variability in climate on the ability of semi-arid ecosystems to cycle and store energy and carbon. We also investigated biome-specific patterns of ecosystem light and water use efficiency during a series of wet and dry years, and how these vary in response to air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, evaporative fraction, and precipitation. Our initial results suggest that significant drought reduced the maximum ecosystem assimilation of carbon most at the C4 grasslands, creosote shrublands, juniper savannas, and ponderosa pine forests, with 60%, 50%, 35%, and 50% reduction respectively, relative to a wet year. Ecosystem light use efficiency tends to show the highest maximum values at the low elevation sites as a function of water availability, with the highest annual values consistently at the middle elevation and ponderosa pine sites. Water use efficiency was strongly biome dependent with the middle elevation sites showing the highest

  15. Temporal changes in potential regulating ecosystem services driven by urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Carla; Amorim, Inês; Pires, Evanilton; Kalantari, Zahra; Walsh, Rory; Ferreira, António

    2017-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ES) are understood to be the capacity of the landscape of a particular area to provide goods and services to society. In terms of human benefits, four categories of ES are usually considered: provisioning (e.g. seafood), regulating (e.g. climate regulation, air quality, water purification and natural hazard protection), supporting (e.g. maintenance of biodiversity), and cultural (e.g. recreation). The potential supply of ecosystem services has receive increasing interest as a tool for natural resource management. Nevertheless, the capacity to supply ES depends on biophysical conditions, as well as climate and land-use changes, induced by human activities. This study aims to investigate the potential for regulating ecosystem service supply of a Portuguese peri-urban catchment, and attempts to understand the temporal changes in ES over the last decades driven by urbanization. The study was developed in Ribeira dos Covões catchment (6.2 km2), in Portugal. Due to its proximity to Coimbra, a major city in the central region of Portugal, the catchment has undergone major land-use changes over the last half-century. Since 1958, the agricultural area, comprising mainly olives and arable land, has declined from 48% to 4%, due to increases in urban land (from 8% to 40%) and forest (from 44% to 53%), as well as a temporary creation of open spaces (from 0% to 3%). The nature of forest cover also changed, from native species, such as oaks (Quercus sp.), to commercial timber plantations, mostly of Pinus pinaster L. and Eucaliptus globulus L.. Urbanization became more pronounced after 1973, exhibiting a discontinuous pattern until 1995, and then later more continuous urban areas through the infilling of areas between the earlier urban cores. Quantification of regulating ES in the study catchment was achieved using GIS techniques, in order to gain a spatial dimension of ES distribution (Burkhard et al., 2009). Mapping ecosystem service capacities at a 5×5m

  16. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert Seidl; Thomas A. Spies; David L. Peterson; Scott L. Stephens; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2015-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resiliencebased stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management,...

  17. Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastick, Neal J; Jorgenson, M Torre; Goetz, Scott J; Jones, Benjamin M; Wylie, Bruce K; Minsley, Burke J; Genet, Hélène; Knight, Joseph F; Swanson, David K; Jorgenson, Janet C

    2018-05-28

    Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio-environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high-latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time-series analysis of moderate-and high-resolution imagery was used to characterize land- and water-surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land-surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak-growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km 2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface-water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery

  18. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  19. A Evaluation of Effects on a Ecosystem and Countermeasures in accordance with Climate Change I- Forest Ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Yong Ha; Jeon, Seong Woo; Choi, Jae Yong; Jeong Hwi Chol; Kim, Jeong Won [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    Climate change requests a lot of changes in the existing life style and economic developing system, which form the foundation of modern culture and economic/social development. Especially, in Korea, whose economic basis is mainly dependent on fossil energy, it is expected that the change of policies on climate change have a bigger effect on many-sided fields including ecosystem than other nations. Therefore, even though all of the Government, academic organizations, and private organizations have made efforts to estimate effects of climate change and to prepare countermeasures, the focus has been on forecast and evaluation of the mutual effect between industrial/economic activities and climate change. Forecast of ecosystem change and preservation of ecosystem according to climate change is another political field to promote. However, such a field has not been promoted systematically in Korea. The Institute recognizing such a current state, as part of the policy on ecosystem preservation according to climate change, forecasted the effect on forest ecosystem, analyzed the economic effects according to the effect of forest ecosystem, and started this study to prepare the countermeasures of the Government-level. This study collected and analyzed international trend and necessary data to develop the model, which would be executed in future, and then suggested the selection and development of the model fitted to Korea. There could be differences between Institute's view and the Government/other institutes. However, such differences are caused by the different methods in capturing the effects of various ecosystems. Such various approaching methods will be of great help to estimate the correct effects and to establish the Government's policies as base data. I hope that this study cannot only be applied to analyze the effects of forest ecosystem according to climate change but contribute to enlarging the understanding of various problems according to climate

  20. Cultural change, hybridity and male homosexuality in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, H

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyzes how contemporary perceptions of male homosexuality are being shaped in Mexico. Ethnographic analysis included four short case studies from 64 mostly middle class individuals for two years in Guadalajara City. Mexican sexual culture is often portrayed traditionally as grounded in values inherent in machismo and influenced by Catholicism. There is a contrast between these traditional interpretations of roles and sexual identities in Mexico and the identities that are being adopted by many contemporary Mexican homosexual men. The homosexual men were categorizable in terms of 1) those who dominated in the sexual relationship and who were capable of maintaining a nonstigmatized identity as regular men, 2) those who assumed a feminine role and were penetrated and who were stigmatized for their effeminate demeanor, and 3) a minority of men who assumed both roles and who were termed "anally active and passive". The study revealed that middle-class homosexuals established networks in which individuals, supported by their friends, acquired the strength to effect personal changes along with other larger cultural changes. Thus, individual actions are beginning to have a collective effect on the society at large.

  1. Resilience to Changing Snow Depth in a Shrubland Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loik, M. E.

    2008-12-01

    Snowfall is the dominant hydrologic input for high elevations and latitudes of the arid- and semi-arid western United States. Sierra Nevada snowpack provides numerous important services for California, but is vulnerable to anthropogenic forcing of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. GCM and RCM scenarios envision reduced snowpack and earlier melt under a warmer climate, but how will these changes affect soil and plant water relations and ecosystem processes? And, how resilient will this ecosystem be to short- and long-term forcing of snow depth and melt timing? To address these questions, our experiments utilize large- scale, long-term roadside snow fences to manipulate snow depth and melt timing in eastern California, USA. Interannual snow depth averages 1344 mm with a CV of 48% (April 1, 1928-2008). Snow fences altered snow melt timing by up to 18 days in high-snowfall years, and affected short-term soil moisture pulses less in low- than medium- or high-snowfall years. Sublimation in this arid location accounted for about 2 mol m- 2 of water loss from the snowpack in 2005. Plant water potential increased after the ENSO winter of 2005 and stayed relatively constant for the following three years, even after the low snowfall of winter 2007. Over the long-term, changes in snow depth and melt timing have impacted cover or biomass of Achnatherum thurberianum, Elymus elemoides, and Purshia tridentata. Growth of adult conifers (Pinus jeffreyi and Pi. contorta) was not equally sensitive to snow depth. Thus, complex interactions between snow depth, soil water inputs, physiological processes, and population patterns help drive the resilience of this ecosystem to changes in snow depth and melt timing.

  2. Risk to a Changing Climate in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, N. D.

    2016-12-01

    The issue of climate change has dominated the atmospheric sciences agenda in recent decades. The concern about an increase in climate related disasters, mainly in large population centers, has led to ask whether they are mainly due to changes in climate or in vulnerability.The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is an example of megalopolis under high climate risk, where floods, landslides, health problems, high air pollution events, socioeconomic droughts are becoming important environmental and social problems. As urbanization spreads and population increases exposure to natural hazards increases, and so the magnitude of risk to a changing climate and the negative impacts. Since the late nineteenth century, in the MCMA an average maximum temperature could be around 22°C, whereas today it is about 24.5ºC. That is, the increase in the average temperature in Mexico City is around 3°C in a hundred years. But there are areas where an increase in the average temperature is similar in only thirty years. The heating rate of the city can vary depending on the change in land use. Areas that conserve forested regions in the process of urbanization tend to warm less than areas where the transformation into concrete and cement is almost complete. Thus, the climate of the MCMA shows important changes mainly in relation to land use changes. Global warming and natural climate variability were also analyzed as possible forcing factors of the observed warming by comparing low frequency variations in local temperature and indices for natural forcing. The hydrological cycle of the MCMA has also changed with urbanization. The "bubble of hot air" over the urban area has more capacity to hold moisture now than before the UHI. However, the increased risk to floods, heat or drought appears to be related not only to more frequent intense climatic hazards induced by the urbanization effect. This process also induces increased vulnerability to a changing climate. The establishment of

  3. Polar marine ecosystems: major threats and future change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, A. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Harris, C.M. [Environmental Research and Assessment, Grantchester (United Kingdom)

    2003-07-01

    This review of polar marine ecosystems covers both the Arctic and Antarctic, identifying the major threats and, where possible, predicting their possible state(s) in 2025. Although the two polar regions are similar in their extreme photoperiod, low temperatures, and in being heavily influenced by snow and ice, in almost all other respects they are very different. The Arctic Ocean is a basin surrounded by continental landmasses close to, and influenced by, large populations and industrial activities. In contrast, the Southern Ocean is contiguous with all the other great oceans and surrounds a single land mass; Antarctica is remote from major centres of population and sources of pollution. Marine environments in both Polar Regions have been highly disturbed by fishing activity, but, in terms of pollution, some areas remain among the most pristine in the world. There are, however, both local and global pressures. Over the 2025 time horizon, the greatest concern for the Arctic is probably the ecological implications of climate change, particularly insofar as sea ice extent and duration are likely to be affected. Such changes are not expected to be as pronounced in the Southern Ocean over this time period, and concerns are related more to direct threats from harvesting of marine living resources, and the ability to manage these fisheries sustainably. In both Polar Regions, the capacity of marine ecosystems to withstand the cumulative impact of a number of pressures, including climate change, pollution and overexploitation, acting synergistically is of greatest concern. (author)

  4. Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

    2015-01-01

    The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Disturbances, organisms and ecosystems: a global change perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponge, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    The present text exposes a theory of the role of disturbances in the assemblage and evolution of species within ecosystems, based principally, but not exclusively, on terrestrial ecosystems. Two groups of organisms, doted of contrasted strategies when faced with environmental disturbances, are presented, based on the classical r-K dichotomy, but enriched with more modern concepts from community and evolutionary ecology. Both groups participate in the assembly of known animal, plant, and microbial communities, but with different requirements about environmental fluctuations. The so-called "civilized" organisms are doted with efficient anticipatory mechanisms, allowing them to optimize from an energetic point of view their performances in a predictable environment (stable or fluctuating cyclically at the scale of life expectancy), and they developed advanced specializations in the course of evolutionary time. On the opposite side, the so-called "barbarians" are weakly efficient in a stable environment because they waste energy for foraging, growth, and reproduction, but they are well adapted to unpredictably changing conditions, in particular during major ecological crises. Both groups of organisms succeed or alternate each other in the course of spontaneous or geared successional processes, as well as in the course of evolution. The balance of "barbarians" against "civilized" strategies within communities is predicted to shift in favor of the first type under present-day anthropic pressure, exemplified among others by climate warming, land use change, pollution, and biological invasions.

  6. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  7. Ecosystem change and human health: implementation economics and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanayak, S K; Kramer, R A; Vincent, J R

    2017-06-05

    Several recent initiatives such as Planetary Health , EcoHealth and One Health claim that human health depends on flourishing natural ecosystems. However, little has been said about the operational and implementation challenges of health-oriented conservation actions on the ground. We contend that ecological-epidemiological research must be complemented by a form of implementation science that examines: (i) the links between specific conservation actions and the resulting ecological changes, and (ii) how this ecological change impacts human health and well-being, when human behaviours are considered. Drawing on the policy evaluation tradition in public economics, first, we present three examples of recent social science research on conservation interventions that affect human health. These examples are from low- and middle-income countries in the tropics and subtropics. Second, drawing on these examples, we present three propositions related to impact evaluation and non-market valuation that can help guide future multidisciplinary research on conservation and human health. Research guided by these propositions will allow stakeholders to determine how ecosystem-mediated strategies for health promotion compare with more conventional biomedical prevention and treatment strategies for safeguarding health.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. © 2017 The Authors.

  8. [Changes in factors associated with the nutrition transition in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Delgado-Sánchez, Guadalupe; Hernández-Briones, Ana

    2006-01-01

    To describe the demographic and socioeconomic changes, food availability and food expense in Mexico during 1980-2000. From official statistics (Population Census, FAO Food Balance Sheets, Family Income and Expense National Survey and Economic Census) we estimated the evolution of population distribution according to locality size, occupational structure, woman participation in the wage-earning labor force, minimum wage, availability of food establishments and expense in food. The percentage of the population that lives in urban areas has increased, they are employed in the tertiary sector, womens participation in the labor market has increased but real minimum wages have decreased. Vegetables, oleaginous, oils, fish and seafood availability have decreased whereas animal fat, vegetables, fruits, softdrinks, meats and egg availability have increased. The number of inexpensive restaurants (cocinas económicas and fondas) has also increased. Food expenses have decreased while amount of money spent in food consumed away from home has increased. In Mexico, the growth in urban areas and the tertiary job sector shows a parallel growth in the availability of high fat and protein food, a greater diet variety and more opportunities to consume food not prepared in the home. On the other hand, the sale of equipment and places designed for recreational physical activity have increased. By reducing employment in the primary sector it is foreseeable that labor intensive physical activity will become less important overtime.

  9. Shifting spatial priorities for ecosystem services in Europe following land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Willem; van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-01-01

    Policy objectives to maintain ecosystem services are increasingly set. Methods to identify priority areas for ecosystem services can assist in the implementation of such policy objectives. While land use change is an important driver of changes in ecosystem services over time, most prioritization

  10. 76 FR 55060 - Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-06

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9459-7] Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change... entitled, Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi- stressor... vulnerability of water quality and aquatic ecosystems across the United States to the potential impacts of...

  11. Evaluation of the health status of a coastal ecosystem in southeast Mexico: Assessment of water quality, phytoplankton and submerged aquatic vegetation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Silveira, Jorge A; Morales-Ojeda, Sara M

    2009-01-01

    The coastal environment of the Yucatan Peninsula (SE, Mexico) includes a wide variety of ecosystems ranging from mangroves to coral reefs, resulting in a heterogeneous landscape. Specifically, the marine system is characterized by environmental differences which respond to regional and local forcing functions such as marine currents and groundwater discharges (GD). Such functional characteristics were used here to define four subregions across the Yucatan coast and diagnose the health status of this coastal marine ecosystem. To achieve this goal, we conducted an analysis and integration of water quality variables, an eutrophic assessment, evaluated changes in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), and analyzed the community structure and distribution of harmful phytoplankton. The first step was to determine the reference values for each subregion based on data previously collected from 2002 to 2006 along the coast of Yucatan, 200m offshore. The trophic index (TRIX) and Canadian index for aquatic life (CCMEWQI) were used to diagnose each subregion and then the ASSETS approach was conducted for Dzilam and Progreso, sampling localities on each end of the health status continuum (those with the best and worst conditions). Overall, results indicated that the marine coastal ecosystem of Yucatan is in good condition; however, differences were observed between subregions that can be attributed to local forcing functions and human impacts. Specifically, the central region (zone HZII, Progreso-Telchac) showed symptoms of initial eutrophication due to nutrient inputs from human activities. The eastern region (zone HZ III, Dzilam-Las Bocas) showed a meso-eutrophic condition linked to natural groundwater discharges, while the other two subregions western (zone HZI Celestun-Palmar) and caribbean (zone HZ IV Ria Lagartos-El Cuyo) exhibited symptoms of oligo-mesotrophic condition. These findings may be considered baseline information for coastal ecosystem monitoring programs in

  12. Effects of technological change in regional labor markets in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reyna Elizabeth Rodríguez Pérez

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Technological change has meant that organizations require workers with higher qualifications, development, implementation and adaptation of technology looking to stay at the forefront in international competitiveness. The aim of this paper is to analyze the changes that have occurred in regional labor markets in Mexico on occupational and wage and identify to what extent these changes may have resulted from technological change and if this behavior is spatially homogeneous. The information source is made up of microdata from the National Survey of Urban Employment (Employment Survey 2000–2004. The empirical analysis –considering workers officiating at high and low technological intensity and applying a Mincerian income function with different classification criteria: education, sex, age groups and regions– during the period indicate that there have been significant changes in the Mexican labor market as a result of biased technological change, as it provides statistical evidence indicating the existence of a higher wage premium for subordinates in the technological area, and different effects at the regional level, encouraging more to the border.

  13. The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico: Implications for National/Regional Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, E.; Papyrakis, E.; Tol, R.S.J.; Gay-García, C.

    2013-01-01

    The recent Mexican government study, The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico (ECCM), which has largely influenced Mexico's stance on climate change issues and international negotiations, is critically reviewed. Whilst the importance of such government-supported national studies as a first attempt

  14. Agricultural Land Use Change after NAFTA in Central West Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quetzalcóatl Orozco-Ramírez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that agricultural land use change and modernization in agricultural production techniques are related to the loss of crop diversity. Two processes contribute to this loss; first is the replacement of landraces by modern varieties, and second is the abandonment of traditional crops in favor of cash crops. We studied the expression of these processes in a region that is both an agro-biodiversity and cultural center and one of the most significant fruit exporters of Mexico. We analyzed agricultural change based on the transformation of cropping areas and the primary crops’ locations in Michoacán state. We examined the crop-harvested area statistics from 1950 to 2015, and identified 23 crops as the most important in terms of harvested area and monetary value. After NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement, harvested area for nine crops changed significantly: seven crops increased, and two decreased. Positive trends were observed for commercial fruits oriented to export markets, and negative trends were observed for traditional crops. These crops, such as beans and maize, are important for food security. Additionally, we analyzed how these land-use and agricultural changes overlap in zones of maize planted-area change. Using a maize-race collection database, we identified three native maize races that could be at risk due to the abandonment of maize in favor of commercial crops.

  15. Nonlinear Changes in Soil Properties and Their Impact on Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, O. A.; Chorover, J. D.

    2001-12-01

    Soils are open systems that act as a membrane at Earth's surface. Water and dissolved acids are the main materials transferred into soils, whereas water and lithogenic solutes dominate the output with the net result being depletion of rock forming constituents such as silica and base cations that are also ecosystem nutrients. The time-dependent coupling of water flux and chemical reactions determines the nature of the colloidal phase that is responsible for nutrient retention. Pedogenesis is a biogeochemical process that is constrained by thermodynamics, but still maintains considerable flexibility as a result of parallel reaction kinetics and a spatially heterogeneous matrix. In the open system, there are many processes that are governed by nonlinear response to changes in environmental variables and/or internal soil properties. From a thermodynamic perspective, the chemistry of pedogenesis is characterized by a number of thresholds. Simultaneous acid-base, ion exchange, redox and mineral transformation reactions interact to determine the direction and rate of change. Over time, the reaction of atmospheric acids with soil bases changes the acid neutralizing capacity of soil to an extent that is controlled by the prevailing buffering reactions. The amount of buffering reaction and effect on pH depend on the nature of the reactive species, their relative amounts, and their respective rates of reaction. Ion exchange and surface complexation reactions consume protons in the short term but long-term buffering derives from mineral weathering. The nature of the governing reactions is such that soils are well buffered to pH change in the alkaline and acid regions but far less so in the neutral to slightly acid zones. In an analogous fashion, organic matter may drive oxidation-reduction processes through a stepwise consumption of electron acceptors (thereby producing thresholds). Mineralogical change tends to occur in a serial, irreversible fashion that, under favorable

  16. Past Changes in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate and UV Radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Chernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)

    2004-11-01

    At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 deg C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the 'Little Ice Age' spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic

  17. Under pressure: Climate change, upwelling and eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisol eGarcía-Reyes

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS, stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., winds to whales studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

  18. Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-02-01

    Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  19. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  20. Payments for ecosystem services and rural development: Landowners' preferences and potential participation in western Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balderas Torres, Arturo; MacMillan, D.C.; Skutsch, Margaret; Lovett, Jonathan Cranidge

    2013-01-01

    Incentive-based mechanisms can contribute to rural development and deliver environmental services, but need to be attractive to landowners and communities to ensure their participation. Here we study the views of landowners and agrarian communities (ejidos) from central Jalisco in Mexico to identify

  1. Climate change effects on central New Mexico's land use, transportation system, and key natural resources : task 1.2 memo

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate how planning decisions made today will affect central New Mexicos resilience to climate change impacts in 2040. This report first describes climate change impacts in central New Mexico. This report then ...

  2. Changing climate and endangered high mountain ecosystems in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Moreno, Hernán Alonso; Gutiérrez, María Elena; Zapata, Paula Andrea

    2008-07-15

    High mountain ecosystems are among the most sensitive environments to changes in climatic conditions occurring on global, regional and local scales. The article describes the changing conditions observed over recent years in the high mountain basin of the Claro River, on the west flank of the Colombian Andean Central mountain range. Local ground truth data gathered at 4150 m, regional data available at nearby weather stations, and satellite info were used to analyze changes in the mean and the variance, and significant trends in climatic time series. Records included minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and cloud characteristics. In high levels, minimum and maximum temperatures during the coldest days increased at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C/decade, whereas maximum temperatures during the warmest days increased at a rate of about 1.3 degrees C/decade. Rates of increase in maximum, mean and minimum diurnal temperature range reached 0.6, 0.7, and 0.5 degrees C/decade. Maximum, mean and minimum relative humidity records showed reductions of about 1.8, 3.9 and 6.6%/decade. The total number of sunny days per month increased in almost 2.1 days. The headwaters exhibited no changes in rainfall totals, but evidenced an increased occurrence of unusually heavy rainfall events. Reductions in the amount of all cloud types over the area reached 1.9%/decade. In low levels changes in mean monthly temperatures and monthly rainfall totals exceeded + 0.2 degrees C and - 4% per decade, respectively. These striking changes might have contributed to the retreat of glacier icecaps and to the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, as well as to the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires. Significant reductions in water supply, important disruptions of the integrity of high mountain ecosystems, and dramatic losses of biodiversity are now a steady menu of the severe climatic conditions experienced by these

  3. Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Payne, Mark; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.

    2016-01-01

    with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability......Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated...... and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization...

  4. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in Greenland and the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heide-Joergensen, H S; Johnsen, I [Koebenhavns Univ., Botanisk Inst., Oekologisk afd. (Denmark)

    1998-12-31

    An increase in the mean yearly temperature up to 3.6 deg. C may occur in North-Greenland by the end of the 21st century, while in south-Greenland temperature may remain stable or fall slightly. Consequences of this climate change for species diversity and the structure of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are discussed. For the Faroe Islands climate change is not expected to cause notable changes in terrestrial ecosystems, but in marine ecosystems changes are highly unpredictable. (au)

  5. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in Greenland and the Faroe Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heide-Joergensen, H.S.; Johnsen, I.

    1997-01-01

    An increase in the mean yearly temperature up to 3.6 deg. C may occur in North-Greenland by the end of the 21st century, while in south-Greenland temperature may remain stable or fall slightly. Consequences of this climate change for species diversity and the structure of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are discussed. For the Faroe Islands climate change is not expected to cause notable changes in terrestrial ecosystems, but in marine ecosystems changes are highly unpredictable. (au)

  6. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in Greenland and the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heide-Joergensen, H.S.; Johnsen, I. [Koebenhavns Univ., Botanisk Inst., Oekologisk afd. (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    An increase in the mean yearly temperature up to 3.6 deg. C may occur in North-Greenland by the end of the 21st century, while in south-Greenland temperature may remain stable or fall slightly. Consequences of this climate change for species diversity and the structure of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are discussed. For the Faroe Islands climate change is not expected to cause notable changes in terrestrial ecosystems, but in marine ecosystems changes are highly unpredictable. (au)

  7. Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the

  8. Small diversity effects on ocean primary production under environmental change in a diversity-resolving ocean ecosystem model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2013-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic diversity. Diversity, however, can affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Using a global ocean ecosystem model...... the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  9. Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, John C.; Barras, John A.; Williams, S. Jeffress

    2013-01-01

    The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

  10. Soil erosion determination using the Cs-137 concentration in the soil profile, in a rain fall seasonal ecosystem of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, L.R.; Garcia, O.F.; Mass, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The soils erosion is one of the main processes of environmental degradation. Latin America presents high levels of erosion however the works that quantificate this problem are few. The application of methods agreed to the tropical countries conditions represents an important limitation in the developing of these works. A methodological option that has arisen in the last years is the application of the distribution analysis of Cs-137 concentration in the soil profile, for estimating the soil motion in a seasonal tropical ecosystem in Chamela, Jalisco, Mexico. The low concentrations of Cs-137 were determined with a gamma spectroscopy system of high resolution and low noise. It is confirmed that the redistribution of Cs-137 in the landscape depends on erosive processes. The conclusion is that in the interpretation of Cs-137 levels it is necessary to incorporate morphology analysis of declivity since this is a low scale measurement. (Author)

  11. Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

  12. Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunsanee Arunyawat

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

  13. 76 FR 10892 - Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-28

    ...: EPA is announcing the release of the draft report titled, ``Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and... relative vulnerability of water quality and aquatic ecosystems, across the United States, to the potential... mailing address, and the document title, ``Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change...

  14. Scientific Guidance for Rehabilitation of the Chesapeake Bay Ecosystem under the Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, D. F.; Johnson, Z. P.; Li, M.

    2017-12-01

    While the Chesapeake Bay is an estuary and not a marginal sea on the scale of the Baltic Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, it has a complex set of environmental issues and multiple political jurisdictions such that it can serve as a test bed for science-informed management in larger marine systems. In particular, the Chesapeake Bay possesses a relatively advanced effort to ameliorate eutrophication, reduce toxic stresses, rehabilitate critical habitats, and sustainably utilized resources. Furthermore, both scientists and managers are addressing these challenges while now beginning to incorporate the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and runoff, sea level, ocean boundary conditions, and pH. Increases in temperature and sea level are already apparent and future conditions can be estimated from global model projections, although sea level and ocean exchanges are also affected by variations in Gulf Stream flows and mesoscale climate. Changes in the volume, seasonality and variability in freshwater delivery from the multiple rivers discharging to the bay are harder to project with confidence, but may have pervasive consequences for circulation, reducing nutrient loads to ameliorate eutrophication, biogeochemical processes, and biotic distributions and dynamics. Science is now challenged to inform multiple adaptation strategies, including minimizing the vulnerability of humans and infrastructure, sustaining important tidal wetlands, managing sediment resources, sustaining living resources, redefining achievable ecosystem rehabilitation goals, and achieving shifting goals for nutrient load reductions. At the same time, science will also have to identify effective means to meet these challenges while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Effects of Land Use Changes on the Ecosystem Service Values of Coastal Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camacho-Valdez, Vera; Ruiz-Luna, Arturo; Ghermandi, Andrea; Berlanga-Robles, César A.; Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.

    2014-10-01

    Changes in the coastal landscape of Southern Sinaloa (Mexico), between 2000 and 2010, were analyzed to relate spatial variations in wetlands extent with the provision and economic value of the ecosystem services (ES). Remote sensing techniques applied to Landsat TM imagery were used to evaluate land use/land cover changes while the value transfer method was used to assess the value of ES by land cover category. Five wetland types and other four land covers were found as representative of the coastal landscape. Findings reveal a 14 % decrease in the saltmarsh/forested mangrove area and a 12 % increase in the area of shrimp pond aquaculture (artificial wetland) during the study period. ES valuation shows that the total value flow increased by 9 % from 215 to 233 million (2007 USD) during the 10-year period. This increase is explained as result of the high value worldwide assigned to saltmarsh. We recognize limitations in the transfer-based approach in quantifying and mapping ES values in the region, but this method provides with value estimates spatially defined, and also provides some guidance in the preliminary screening of policies and projected development in the context of data-scarce regions.

  16. Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystems: inference and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel G. Yoccoz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Alpine ecosystems will be greatly impacted by climatic change, but other factors, such as land use and invasive species, are likely to play an important role too. Climate can influence ecosystems at several levels. We describe some of them, stressing methodological approaches and available data. Climate can modify species phenology, such as flowering date of plants and hatching date in insects. It can also change directly population demography (survival, reproduction, dispersal, and therefore species distribution. Finally it can effect interactions among species – snow cover for example can affect the success of some predators. One characteristic of alpine ecosystems is the presence of snow cover, but surprisingly the role played by snow is relatively poorly known, mainly for logistical reasons. Even if we have made important progress regarding the development of predictive models, particularly so for distribution of alpine plants, we still need to set up observational and experimental networks which properly take into account the variability of alpine ecosystems and of their interactions with climate.Les écosystèmes alpins vont être grandement influencés par les changements climatiques à venir, mais d’autres facteurs, tels que l’utilisation des terres ou les espèces invasives, pourront aussi jouer un rôle important. Le climat peut influencer les écosystèmes à différents niveaux, et nous en décrivons certains, en mettant l’accent sur les méthodes utilisées et les données disponibles. Le climat peut d’abord modifier la phénologie des espèces, comme la date de floraison des plantes ou la date d’éclosion des insectes. Il peut ensuite affecter directement la démographie des espèces (survie, reproduction, dispersion et donc à terme leur répartition. Il peut enfin agir sur les interactions entre espèces – le couvert neigeux par exemple modifie le succès de certains prédateurs. Une caractéristique des

  17. Payments for ecosystem services and rural development: Landowners' preferences and potential participation in western Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    MacMillan, Douglas C.

    2013-01-01

    Incentive-based mechanisms cancontribute to rural development and deliver environmental services, but need to be attractive to landowners and communities to ensure their participation.Here we study the views of landowners and agrarian communities(ejidos)from central Jalisco in Mexico to identify characteristics that payment for environmental services (PES)programs conserving/enhancing forest cover could include in their design. A choice experiment was applied to 161 landowners and ejido-lando...

  18. Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

  19. Levels and Distribution of Pollutants in the Waters of an Aquatic Ecosystem in Northern Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Manuel Ochoa-Rivero

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The availability of good quality water resources is essential to ensure healthy crops and livestock. The objective of this study was to evaluate the level of pollution in Bustillos Lagoon in northern Mexico. Physical-chemical parameters like sodium, chloride, sulfate, electrical conductivity, nitrates, and the pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT were analyzed to determine the water quality available in the lagoon. Although DDT has been banned in several countries, it is still used for agricultural purposes in Mexico and its presence in this area had not been analyzed previously. Bustillos Lagoon was divided into three zones for the evaluation: (1 industrial; (2 communal lands; and (3 agricultural. The highest concentrations of sodium (2360 mg/L and SAR (41 meq/L reported in the industrial zone are values exceeding the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO irrigation water quality guidelines. DDT and its metabolites were detected in all of the 21 sites analyzed, in the agricultural zone ∑DDTs = 2804 ng/mL, this level is much higher than those reported for other water bodies in Mexico and around the world where DDT has been used heavily. The water in the communal zone is the least contaminated, but can only be recommended for irrigation of plants with high stress tolerance and not for crops.

  20. Levels and Distribution of Pollutants in the Waters of an Aquatic Ecosystem in Northern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa-Rivero, Jesús Manuel; Reyes-Fierro, Ana Victoria; Peralta-Pérez, Ma Del Rosario; Zavala-Díaz de la Serna, Francisco Javier; Ballinas-Casarrubias, Lourdes; Salmerón, Ivan; Rubio-Arias, Héctor; Rocha-Gutiérrez, Beatriz A

    2017-04-25

    The availability of good quality water resources is essential to ensure healthy crops and livestock. The objective of this study was to evaluate the level of pollution in Bustillos Lagoon in northern Mexico. Physical-chemical parameters like sodium, chloride, sulfate, electrical conductivity, nitrates, and the pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) were analyzed to determine the water quality available in the lagoon. Although DDT has been banned in several countries, it is still used for agricultural purposes in Mexico and its presence in this area had not been analyzed previously. Bustillos Lagoon was divided into three zones for the evaluation: (1) industrial; (2) communal lands; and (3) agricultural. The highest concentrations of sodium (2360 mg/L) and SAR (41 meq/L) reported in the industrial zone are values exceeding the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) irrigation water quality guidelines. DDT and its metabolites were detected in all of the 21 sites analyzed, in the agricultural zone ∑DDTs = 2804 ng/mL, this level is much higher than those reported for other water bodies in Mexico and around the world where DDT has been used heavily. The water in the communal zone is the least contaminated, but can only be recommended for irrigation of plants with high stress tolerance and not for crops.

  1. Issues in evaluation of ecosystem change in response to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Shevliakova, E.; Kandlikar, M.

    1994-12-31

    Uncertainty analysis of our integrated climate assessment model has revealed the importance of obtaining better market and non-market impacts. Improving market and non-market damage assessments has necessitated advances in the theoretical and applied dimensions of the problem. The assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystems provides a severe test for the new ideas being put forward. This paper provides a brief overview of, (i) the challenges inherent in modeling ecosystem dynamics; (ii) the problem of selecting an appropriate metric of change; and, (iii) the thorny issue of how to place a monetary value on market and non-market impacts. We focus on two central issues in estimation of impacts: (i) before climate change, are the systems being impacted (both ecological and economic) in equilibrium? and (ii) how quickly do ecological and related economic systems adapt to change? In addition, we attempt to be comprehensive in laying out the magnitude of the challenge ahead.

  2. Resolving the Conflict Between Ecosystem Protection and Land Use in Protected Areas of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortina-Villar, Sergio; Plascencia-Vargas, Héctor; Vaca, Raúl; Schroth, Götz; Zepeda, Yatziri; Soto-Pinto, Lorena; Nahed-Toral, José

    2012-03-01

    Livelihoods of people living in many protected areas (PAs) around the world are in conflict with biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, the decrees of creation of biosphere reserves state that rural communities with the right to use buffer zones must avoid deforestation and their land uses must become sustainable, a task which is not easily accomplished. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to analyze the conflict between people's livelihoods and ecosystem protection in the PAs of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), paying special attention to the rates and causes of deforestation and (b) to review policy options to ensure forest and ecosystem conservation in these PAs, including the existing payments for environmental services system and improvements thereof as well as options for sustainable land management. We found that the three largest PAs in the SMC are still largely forested, and deforestation rates have decreased since 2000. Cases of forest conversion are located in specific zones and are related to agrarian and political conflicts as well as growing economic inequality and population numbers. These problems could cause an increase in forest loss in the near future. Payments for environmental services and access to carbon markets are identified as options to ensure forest permanence but still face problems. Challenges for the future are to integrate these incentive mechanisms with sustainable land management and a stronger involvement of land holders in conservation.

  3. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

  4. The need for simultaneous evaluation of ecosystem services and land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euliss, Ned H.; Smith, Loren M.; Liu, Shu-Guang; Feng, Min; Mushet, David M.; Auch, Roger F.; Loveland, Thomas R.

    2010-01-01

    We are living in a period of massive global change. This rate of change may be almost without precedent in geologic history (1). Even the most remote areas of the planet are influenced by human activities. Modern landscapes have been highly modified to accommodate a growing human population that the United Nations has forecast to peak at 9.1 billion by 2050. Over this past century, reliance on services from ecosystems has increased significantly and, over past decades, sustainability of our modern, intensively managed ecosystems has been a topic of serious international concern (1). Numerous papers addressing a particular land-use change effect on specific ecosystem services have recently been published. For example, there is currently great interest in increasing biofuel production to achieve energy inde- pendence goals and recent papers have independently focused attention on impacts of land-use change on single ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration (2) and many others (e.g., water availability, biodiversity, pollination). However, land-use change clearly affects myriad ecosystem services simultaneously. Hence, a broader perspective and context is needed to evaluate and understand interrelated affects on multiple ecosystem services, especially as we strive for the goal of sustainably managing global ecosystems. Similarly, land uses affect ecosystem services synergistically; single land-use evaluations may be misleading because the overall impact on an ecosystem is not evaluated. A more holistic approach would provide a means and framework to characterize how land-use change affects provisioning of goods and services of complete ecosystems.

  5. Changes in Arctic and Boreal ecosystems of North America: Integrating Recent Results from the Field, Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, S. J.; Rogers, B. M.; Mack, M. C.; Goulden, M.; Pastick, N. J.; Berner, L. T.; Fisher, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and boreal forest biomes have global significance in terms of climate feedbacks associated with land surface interactions with the atmosphere. Changes in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystem productivity and fire disturbance feedbacks have been well documented in recent years, but findings are often only locally relevant and are sometimes inconsistent among research teams. Part of these inconsistencies lie in utilization of different data sets and time periods considered. Integrated approaches are thus needed to adequately address changes in these ecosystems in order to assess consistency and variability of change, as well as ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency across spatial and temporal scales. Ultimately this can best be accomplished via multiple lines of evidence including remote sensing, field measurements and various types of data-constrained models. We will discuss some recent results integrating multiple lines of evidence for directional ecosystem change in the Arctic and boreal forest biomes of North America. There is increasing evidence for widespread spatial and temporal variability in Arctic and boreal ecosystem productivity changes that are strongly influenced by cycles of changing fire disturbance severity and its longer-term implications (i.e legacy effects). Integrated, multi-approach research, like that currently underway as part of the NASA-led Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (above.nasa.gov), is an effective way to capture the complex mechanisms that drive patterns and directionality of ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately determine feedbacks to environmental change, particularly in the context of global climate change. Additional ongoing ABoVE research will improve our understanding of the consequences of environmental changes underway, as well as increase our confidence in making projections of the ecosystem responses, vulnerability and resilience to change. ABoVE will also build a lasting legacy of

  6. Mexico Under NAFTA: Accounting Information In a Changing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M. Rivera

    1998-08-01

    Full Text Available Mexico has successfully implemented policies to open foreign trade, stabilize the Peso, control inflation, deregulate private business, scale back state enterprises, eliminate bureaucratic red tape, and welcome foreign investment. This process started before NAFTA was considered; however, NAFTA helped in making these economic changes more permanent. Given a more propitious business environment, understanding the financial information reported by Mexican firms constitutes a relevant inquiry. This paper analyzes features of the accounting model used in that economy and compares them against the characteristics of its counterpart accounting practice in the U.S. As a whole, the Mexican accounting practice has achieved a reasonably good level of competence. In their quest to find solutions to problems and issues not yet covered by their accounting norms, the Mexican Accounting Principles Committee has paid close attention to the U.S. GAAP and to the principles advanced by the International Accounting Standards Committee. A new Law of the Securities Market has added mechanisms to guarantee a healthy operation of the securities market and to increase the transparency of transactions and financial disclosures of the companies whose securities are traded in the exchanges. All this is a reflection of the new open economy and free market mechanisms embraced by the Mexican government.

  7. Temporal change in deep-sea benthic ecosystems: a review of the evidence from recent time-series studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, A G; Gooday, A J; Bailey, D M; Billett, D S M; Chevaldonné, P; Colaço, A; Copley, J; Cuvelier, D; Desbruyères, D; Kalogeropoulou, V; Klages, M; Lampadariou, N; Lejeusne, C; Mestre, N C; Paterson, G L J; Perez, T; Ruhl, H; Sarrazin, J; Soltwedel, T; Soto, E H; Thatje, S; Tselepides, A; Van Gaever, S; Vanreusel, A

    2010-01-01

    by stochastic events such as volcanic eruptions, with associated fauna showing complex patterns of community succession. For the slow-spreading centres such as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, vent sites appear to be stable over the time periods measured, with no discernable long-term trend. At cold seeps, inferences based on spatial studies in the Gulf of Mexico, and data on organism longevity, suggest that these sites are stable over many hundreds of years. However, at the Haakon Mosby mud volcano, a large, well-studied seep in the Barents Sea, periodic mud slides associated with gas and fluid venting may disrupt benthic communities, leading to successional sequences over time. For chemosynthetic ecosystems of biogenic origin (e.g. whale-falls), it is likely that the longevity of the habitat depends mainly on the size of the carcass and the ecological setting, with large remains persisting as a distinct seafloor habitat for up to 100 years. Studies of shallow-water analogs of deep-sea ecosystems such as marine caves may also yield insights into temporal processes. Although it is obvious from the geological record that past climate change has impacted deep-sea faunas, the evidence that recent climate change or climate variability has altered deep-sea benthic communities is extremely limited. This mainly reflects the lack of remote sensing of this vast seafloor habitat. Current and future advances in deep-ocean benthic science involve new remote observing technologies that combine a high temporal resolution (e.g. cabled observatories) with spatial capabilities (e.g. autonomous vehicles undertaking image surveys of the seabed). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farag, Aida; Larson, Diane L.; Stauber, Jenny; Stahl, Ralph; Isanhart, John; McAbee, Kevin T.; Walsh, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

  9. Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition

    OpenAIRE

    Allan, Eric; Manning, Pete; et al

    2015-01-01

    Global change, especially land-use intensification, affects human well-being by impacting the deliv-ery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is amajor component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real-world ecosystems, as inexperimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional compositionand 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land-use intensity. We alsointroduce five mu...

  10. Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition.

    OpenAIRE

    Allan Eric; Manning Pete; Alt Fabian; Binkenstein Julia; Blaser Stefan; Blüthgen Nico; Böhm Stefan; Grassein Fabrice; Hölzel Norbert; Klaus Valentin H.; Kleinebecker Till; Morrys Elisabeth Kathryn; Oelmann Yvonne; Prati Daniel; Renner Sven C.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Global change, especially land?use intensification, affects human well?being by impacting the delivery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is a major component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real?world ecosystems, as in experimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional composition and 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land?use intensity. We also int...

  11. Comparative distribution of plutonium in contaminated ecosystems at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and Los Alamos, New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahlman, R.C.; Garten, C.T. Jr.; Hakonson, T.E.

    1980-01-01

    The distribution of plutonium was compared in portions of forest ecosystems at Oak Ridge, TN, and Los Alamos, NM, which were contaminated by liquid effluents. Inventories of plutonium in soil at the two sites were generally similar, but a larger fraction of the plutonium was associated with biota at Los Alamos than at Oak Ridge. Most (99.7 to 99.9%) of the plutonium was present in the soil, and very little (0.1 to 0.3%) was in biotic components. Comparative differences in distributions within the two ecosystems appeared to be related to individual contamination histories and greater physical transport of plutonium in soil to biotic surfaces at Los Alamos

  12. The changing Mediterranean Sea — a sensitive ecosystem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turley, Carol M.

    1999-08-01

    seasonal climate and low land runoff contribute to the low productivity of the sea. Nutrients are a major controlling factor in oceanic productivity and often influence the type and succession of phytoplankton. Changes in river flow and agricultural practice can influence the concentration and ratio of different nutrients flowing into the sea. For example, changing agricultural practices have resulted in higher nitrogen and phosphorus flowing into the Adriatic and lagoons of the Nile which has lead to eutrophication. The predicted population increases, especially along the southern shores, seems likely to result in eutrophication and an increased risk of pollution in other areas unless well managed. A further warning tale from the Black Sea has recently come to light where damming of rivers has resulted in depletion of silica in the seawater. (Humborg, C., Ittekkot, V., Cociasu, A., & Bodungen, B. (1997). Effect of Danube River dam on Black Sea biogeochemistry and ecosystem structure. Nature, London, 386, 385-388.) This means that silica-requiring phytoplankton do not have their essential growth nutrient and may explain the unbalanced growth of other toxic forms which do not require silica. Similarly, the Aswan dam holds back massive amounts of silica carried by the Nile from entering the eastern Mediterranean. The future of the Mediterranean ecosystem does not look rosy. If we are to learn from scientific observations, such as those in the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea and Adriatic, scientists, economists and policy makers, from the 18 countries bordering the Mediterranean, must interface to ensure an adequate and appropriate response.

  13. Stable isotope and trace element studies of black bear hair, Big Bend ecosystem, Texas and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, W.C. Pat; Hellgren, Eric C.; Stricker, Craig A.; Gemery-Hill, Pamela A.; Onorato, David P.

    2008-01-01

    Hair from black bears (Ursus americanus), collected from four areas in the Big Bend ecosystem, has been analyzed for stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur to determine major food sources and for trace metals to infer possible effects of environmental contaminants. Results indicate that black bears are largely vegetarian, feeding on desert plants, nuts, and berries. Mercury concentrations in bear hair are below safe level standards (

  14. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  15. The provision of ecosystem services in response to global change: Evidences and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafortezza, Raffaele; Chen, Jiquan

    2016-05-01

    As a consequence of the global increase in economic and societal prosperity, ecosystems and natural resources have been substantially exploited, degraded, or even destroyed in the last century. To prevent further deprivation of the quality of ecosystems, the ecosystem services concept has become a central issue in environmental studies. A growing number of environmental agencies and organizations worldwide are now embracing integrated approaches to plan and manage ecosystems, sharing a goal to maintain the long-term provision of ecosystem services for sustainability. A daunting challenge in this process is to move from general pronouncements about the tremendous benefits that ecosystems provide to society to defensible assessments of their services. In other words, we must move beyond the scientific evidences of the ecosystem services concept to its practical applications. In this work, we discuss the theoretical foundations and applications of ecosystem services with a focus on the assessment of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we offer examples of the main factors related to land use management that may affect the provision of ecosystem services and provide direction for future research on ecosystem services and related nature-based solutions. We also provide a briefing on the major topics covered in this Special Issue, which focuses on the provision of ecosystem services in the context of global change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

    2017-01-01

    Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...

  17. Adaptation approaches for conserving ecosystems services and biodiversity in dynamic landscapes caused by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oswald J. Schmitz; Anne M. Trainor

    2014-01-01

    Climate change stands to cause animal species to shift their geographic ranges. This will cause ecosystems to become reorganized across landscapes as species migrate into and out of specific locations with attendant impacts on values and services that ecosystems provide to humans. Conservation in an era of climate change needs to ensure that landscapes are resilient by...

  18. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

  19. Direct and terrestrial vegetation-mediated effects of environmental change on aquatic ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky A. Ball; John S. Kominoski; Heather E. Adams; Stuart E. Jones; Evan S. Kane; Terrance D. Loecke; Wendy M. Mahaney; Jason P. Martina; Chelse M. Prather; Todd M.P. Robinson; Christopher T. Solomon

    2010-01-01

    Global environmental changes have direct effects on aquatic ecosystems, as well as indirect effects through alterations of adjacent terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning. For example, shifts in terrestrial vegetation communities resulting from global changes can affect the quantity and quality of water, organic matter, and nutrient inputs to aquatic...

  20. CLIMAITE - a three factor climate change ecosystem manipulation experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, T. N.; Beier, C.; Albert, K.; Ro-Poulsen, H.

    2007-12-01

    The Danish multi factorial climate change effects on vegetation experiment (Climaite) have now been conducted for two years on semi-natural grassland. The day time [CO2], night time temperature and precipitation (drought) have been altered, according to a regional climate change model for the year 2075, in a full factorial split plot design. The manipulated area for each treatment is 7 m2 and it is replicated 6 times. The CO2 and temperature treatments have been conducted continuously except for periods with snow cover. The CO2 is enhanced to 510 ppm via a FACE system based on concentrated CO2 released upwind under pressure. The control of the [CO2] varies with wind speed and irradiation, but during 50 percent of the fumigation period the target concentration was kept within +/-5 percent. The temperature treatment is conducted via infrared reflective curtains covering the plots during night time, and the warming of plants and soil depends of the day irradiation, night time wind speed and factors related to seasonality. In general, the air temperature is increased during night time with 1-2 C° and negligible during the day. The soil temperature in 5 cm depth is enhanced to 0.3 - 0.6 C° during night and day. The artificial summer droughts lasted about one month and differences in soil water content were developed over time. By the end of the treatment the èv content in the soil was as low as 0.06 m3 m-3 compared to 0.20 m3 m-3 in the control. Numerous physical and biological parameters in the grassland ecosystem have been measured and several are responding to the changed environment. After 9 months of exposure enhanced [CO2] stimulated the net photosynthesis (based on dry weight) in both of the domination plant species Calluna Vulgaris and Deschampsia flexuosa. When the plants were exposed to short term saturated [CO2] during gasexchange measurements the long term CO2 treated plants also had the highest photosynthesis rate, meaning that the plants were not

  1. Coral Reef Ecosystems under Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as providing many other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm, and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40–150 m, “mesophotic” (low light coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2,000 m or more, the so-called “cold-water” coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5 are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040–2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes “necessary but not sufficient” evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of

  2. Partitioning inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and functional change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hui, D.; Luo, Y.; Katul, G.

    2003-01-01

    Inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon is investigated using a homogeneity-of-slopes model to identify the function change contributing to inter annual variability, net ecosystem carbon exchange, and night-time ecosystem respiration. Results of employing this statistical approach to a data set collected at the Duke Forest AmeriFlux site from August 1997 to December 2001 are discussed. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to partition the variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes into direct effects of seasonal and inter annual climatic variability and functional change. 51 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  3. Will Global Change Effect Primary Productivity in Coastal Ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    Algae are the base of coastal food webs because they provide the source of organic carbon for the remaining members of the community. Thus, the rate that they produce organic carbon to a large extent controls the productivity of the entire ecosystem. Factors that control algal productivity range from the physical (e.g., temperature, light), chemical (e.g., nutrient levels) to the biological (e.g., grazing). Currently, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide surficial fluxes of ultraviolet radiation are rising. Both of these environmental variables can have a profound effect on algal productivity. Atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase surficial levels of dissolved inorganic carbon. Our laboratory and field studies of algal mats and phytoplankton cultures under ambient and elevated levels of pCO2 show that elevated levels of inorganic carbon can cause an increase in photosynthetic rates. In some cases, this increase will cause an increase in phytoplankton numbers. There may be an increase in the excretion of fixed carbon, which in turn may enhance bacterial productivity. Alternatively, in analogy with studies on the effect of elevated pCO2 on plants, the phytoplankton could change their carbon to nitrogen ratios, which will effect the feeding of the planktonic grazers. The seasonal depletion of stratospheric ozone has resulted in elevated fluxes of UVB radiation superimposed on the normal seasonal variation. Present surface UV fluxes have a significant impact on phytoplankton physiology, including the inhibition of the light and dark reactions of photosynthesis, inhibition of nitrogenase activity, inhibition of heterocyst formation, reduction in motility, increased synthesis of the UV-screening pigment scytonemin, and mutation. After reviewing these issues, recent work in our lab on measuring the effect of UV radiation on phytoplankton in the San Francisco Bay Estuary will be presented.

  4. Impacts of Suspended Sediment and Estuarine - Shelf Exchange Pathways on Shelf Ecosystem Dynamics in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggert, J. D.; Pan, C.; Dinniman, M. S.; Lau, Y.; Fitzpatrick, P. J.; O'Brien, S. J.; Bouchard, C.; Quas, L. M.; Miles, T. N.; Cambazoglu, M. K.; Dykstra, S. L.; Dzwonkowski, B.; Jacobs, G. A.; Church, I.; Hofmann, E. E.

    2017-12-01

    A circulation model based on the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System, with coupled biogeochemical and sediment transport modules, has been implemented for Mississippi Sound and the adjacent continental shelf region. The model has 400-m horizontal resolution, 24 vertical layers, and includes wetting/drying capability to resolve shallow inshore regions. The circulation model was spun-up using oceanographic initial and lateral boundary conditions provided by a 1-km resolution regional implementation of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) in the Gulf of Mexico. The biogeochemical module includes multiple size classes of phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus, a fish larvae compartment, and explicitly tracks dissolved oxygen with benthic cycling interaction. The sediment transport model is implemented based on benthic mapping data that provides bottom sediment type distributions and spatio-temporal validation. A regionally specific atmospheric forcing product that provides improved spatial and temporal resolution, including diurnal sea breeze impacts, has been developed and applied. Model experiments focus on periods when comprehensive ship-based sampling was deployed by the CONCORDE (Consortium for Coastal River-Dominated Ecosystems) research program, which was established to investigate the complex fine-scale biological, chemical and physical interactions in a marine system controlled by pulsed-river plume dynamics. Biophysical interactions and biogeochemical variability associated with estuarine - shelf exchanges between nearshore lagoonal estuarine waters and the continental shelf revealed by the model provide new insight into how seasonal variation of hydrological forcing conditions influence ecological and biogeochemical processes in the highly productive Northern Gulf region. Application of the COAWST-based model system with and without inclusion of the sediment transport module demonstrates how suspended sediment in the

  5. Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S

    2012-01-01

    Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.

  6. The effect of ecosystem biodiversity on virus genetic diversity depends on virus species: A study of chiltepin-infecting begomoviruses in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodelo-Urrego, Manuel; García-Arenal, Fernando; Pagán, Israel

    2015-01-01

    Current declines in biodiversity put at risk ecosystem services that are fundamental for human welfare. Increasing evidence indicates that one such service is the ability to reduce virus emergence. It has been proposed that the reduction of virus emergence occurs at two levels: through a reduction of virus prevalence/transmission and, as a result of these epidemiological changes, through a limitation of virus genetic diversity. Although the former mechanism has been studied in a few host-virus interactions, very little is known about the association between ecosystem biodiversity and virus genetic diversity. To address this subject, we estimated genetic diversity, synonymous and non-synonymous nucleotide substitution rates, selection pressures, and frequency of recombinants and re-assortants in populations of Pepper golden mosaic virus (PepGMV) and Pepper huasteco yellow vein virus (PHYVV) that infect chiltepin plants in Mexico. We then analyzed how these parameters varied according to the level of habitat anthropization, which is the major cause of biodiversity loss. Our results indicated that genetic diversity of PepGMV (but not of PHYVV) populations increased with the loss of biodiversity at higher levels of habitat anthropization. This was mostly the consequence of higher rates of synonymous nucleotide substitutions, rather than of adaptive selection. The frequency of recombinants and re-assortants was higher in PepGMV populations infecting wild chiltepin than in those infecting cultivated ones, suggesting that genetic exchange is not the main mechanism for generating genetic diversity in PepGMV populations. These findings provide evidence that biodiversity may modulate the genetic diversity of plant viruses, but it may differentially affect even two closely related viruses. Our analyses may contribute to understanding the factors involved in virus emergence.

  7. Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-10-28

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. Ecosystem changes and life conditions in Colombia: Empiric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquez, German

    2004-01-01

    We study the relationship among biophysical variables, focusing on land cover and, socioeconomic, demographic and violence variables. The method to do so is identifying significant correlations that show multiple interactions between ecosystems and society. Using these correlations several related hypotheses are tested. What is seen is that life conditions seem more favored in intermediate conditions of transformation of ecosystems; this is less due to poverty than to better economic conditions. Violence relates itself more whit the first than with the latter although evidence shows that little transformed places are violent. What is proposed here is that as the ecosystems are transformed the resources get scarce and people get poorer; with this the pressure over these few resources, the environmental damage and the migrations increases, sometimes stimulated by violence too. In sum, here we show the importance of incorporation, in a deeper way, of the ecological and environmental variables to the study and following of the general conditions of the nation

  9. Generalized additive models used to predict species abundance in the Gulf of Mexico: an ecosystem modeling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Drexler

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit ecosystem models of all types require an initial allocation of biomass, often in areas where fisheries independent abundance estimates do not exist. A generalized additive modelling (GAM approach is used to describe the abundance of 40 species groups (i.e. functional groups across the Gulf of Mexico (GoM using a large fisheries independent data set (SEAMAP and climate scale oceanographic conditions. Predictor variables included in the model are chlorophyll a, sediment type, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and depth. Despite the presence of a large number of zeros in the data, a single GAM using a negative binomial distribution was suitable to make predictions of abundance for multiple functional groups. We present an example case study using pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duroarum and compare the results to known distributions. The model successfully predicts the known areas of high abundance in the GoM, including those areas where no data was inputted into the model fitting. Overall, the model reliably captures areas of high and low abundance for the large majority of functional groups observed in SEAMAP. The result of this method allows for the objective setting of spatial distributions for numerous functional groups across a modeling domain, even where abundance data may not exist.

  10. Spatially Explicit Assessment of Ecosystem Resilience: An Approach to Adapt to Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiming Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem resilience plays a key role in maintaining a steady flow of ecosystem services and enables quick and flexible responses to climate changes, and maintaining or restoring the ecosystem resilience of forests is a necessary societal adaptation to climate change; however, there is a great lack of spatially explicit ecosystem resilience assessments. Drawing on principles of the ecosystem resilience highlighted in the literature, we built on the theory of dissipative structures to develop a conceptual model of the ecosystem resilience of forests. A hierarchical indicator system was designed with the influencing factors of the forest ecosystem resilience, including the stand conditions and the ecological memory, which were further disaggregated into specific indicators. Furthermore, indicator weights were determined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and the coefficient of variation method. Based on the remote sensing data and forest inventory data and so forth, the resilience index of forests was calculated. The result suggests that there is significant spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem resilience of forests, indicating it is feasible to generate large-scale ecosystem resilience maps with this assessment model, and the results can provide a scientific basis for the conservation of forests, which is of great significance to the climate change mitigation.

  11. Curricular Changes in Higher Education in Mexico (2002-2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Barriga, Frida; Barrón, María Concepción

    2014-01-01

    Based on the analysis of 1241 documents published in Mexico (2002-2012) concerning curriculum studies, we find that the issue of innovation was addressed in 6 out of 10 research papers that focused on the higher education level (60.4%). It shows an increase in empirical research, quantitative and qualitative, that accounts for the process of…

  12. Potential Carbon Stock Changes in Arizona's Ecosystems Due to Projected Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, B. K.; Ironside, K.; Hungate, B. A.; Hurteau, M.; Koch, G. W.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change can alter the role of plants and soils as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide and result in changes in long-term carbon storage. To understand the sensitivity of Arizona's ecosystems to climate change, we quantified the present carbon stocks in Arizona's major ecosystem types using the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model. Carbon stocks for each vegetation type included surface mineral soil, dead wood litter, standing wood and live leaf biomass. The total Arizona ecosystem carbon stock is presently 1775 MMtC, 545 MMtC of which is in Pinus ponderosa and Pinus edulis forests and woodlands. Evergreen forest vegetation, predominately Pinus ponderosa, has the largest current C density at 11.3 kgC/m2, while Pinus edulis woodlands have a C density of 6.0 kgC/m2. A change in climate will impact the suitable range for each tree species, and consequentially the amount of C stored. Present habitat ranges for these tree species are projected to have widespread mortality and likely will be replaced by herbaceous species, resulting in a loss of C stored. We evaluated the C storage implications over the 2010 to 2099 period of climate change based on output from GCMs with contrasting projections for the southwestern US: MPI-ECHAM5, which projects warming and reduced precipitation, and UKMO-HadGEM, which projects warming and increased precipitation. These projected changes are end points of a spectrum of possible future climate scenarios. The vegetation distribution models used describe potential suitable habitat, and we assumed that the growth rate for each vegetation type would be one-third of the way to full C density for each 30 year period up to 2099. With increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation predictions under the MPI-ECHAM5 model, P. ponderosa and P. edulis vegetation show a decrease in carbon stored from 545 MMtC presently to 116 MMtC. With the combined increase in temperature and precipitation, C storage in these

  13. Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-06-01

    This document summarizes the key energy data for Mexico: 1 - energy organizations and policy: Ministry of energy (SENER), Comision Reguladora de Energia (CRE), Ministry of Finances, Ministry of trade and industrial development (SECOFI), national commission for energy savings (CONAE); 2 - companies: federal commission of electricity (CFE), Minera Carbonifera Rio Escondido (MICARE - coal), Pemex (petroleum); 3 - energy production: resources, electric power, petroleum, natural gas; 4 - energy consumption; 5 - stakes and perspectives. Some economic and energy indicators are summarized in a series of tables: general indicators, supply indicators (reserves, refining and electric capacity, energy production, foreign trade), demand indicators (consumption trends, end use, energy independence, energy efficiency, CO 2 emissions), energy status per year and per energy source. (J.S.)

  14. Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langerwisch, Fanny; Václavík, Tomáš; von Bloh, Werner; Vetter, Tobias; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2018-01-01

    Irrigated rice croplands are among the world’s most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We quantified future changes in the provision of four essential ESS (carbon storage, carbon sequestration, provision of irrigation water and rice production) under two climate scenarios (until 2100) and three site-specific land-use scenarios (until 2030), and examined the synergies and trade-offs in ESS responses to these drivers. Our results show that not all services can be provided in the same amounts in the future. In the Philippines and Vietnam the projections estimated a decrease in rice yields (by approximately 30%) and in carbon storage (by 15%) and sequestration (by 12%) towards the end of the century under the current land-use pattern. In contrast, the amount of available irrigation water was projected to increase in all scenarios by 10%-20%. However, the results also indicate that land-use change may partially offset the negative climate impacts in regions where cropland expansion is possible, although only at the expense of natural vegetation. When analysing the interactions between ESS, we found consistent synergies between rice production and carbon storage and trade-offs between carbon storage and provision of irrigation water under most scenarios. Our results show that not only the effects of climate and land-use change alone but also the interaction between ESS have to be considered to allow sustainable management of rice agro-ecosystems under global change.

  15. Migration as an Agent of Change in Caribbean Island Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Dawn

    1982-01-01

    There is need to assess the impact of migration on the Caribbean ecosystems. As a 150-year-old institution, emigration is related to the carrying capacity of the islands and the need to export the surplus population when capacity is threatened. Emigration, however, is a deterrent to development and individual independence. (KC)

  16. Ecosystem model of the entire Beaufort Sea marine ecosystem: a tool for assessing food-web structure and ecosystem changes from 1970 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprenand, P. M.; Hoover, C.

    2016-02-01

    The Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem is approximately a 476,000 km2 area in the Arctic Ocean, which extends from -112.5 to -158° longitude to 67.5 to 75° latitude. Within this Arctic Ocean area the United States (Alaskan) indigenous communities of Barrow, Kaktovik, and Nuiqsut, and the Canadian (Northwest Territories) indigenous communities of Aklavik, Inuvik, Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, Ulukhaktok, and Sachs Harbour, subsist by harvesting marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates from the Beaufort Sea to provide the majority of their community foods annually. The ecosystem in which the indigenous communities harvest is considered a polar habitat that includes many specialized species, such as polar bears that rely on sea-ice for foraging activities and denning, or ice algae that are attached to the cryosphere. However, the polar habitat has been experiencing a diminishing sea-ice extent, age, and seasonal duration, with concomitant increases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), since the 1970s. Changes in sea-ice and SST have consequences to the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem, which includes animal habitat losses, alterations to trophodynamics, and impacts to subsistence community harvesting. The present study was aimed at capturing trophodynamic changes in the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem from 1970 to 2014 using a fitted spatial-temporal model (Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace) that utilizes forcing and mediation functions to describe animal/trophodynamic relationships with sea-ice and sea surface temperature, as well as individual community harvesting efforts. Model outputs reveals similar trends in animals population changes (e.g., increasing bowhead whale stock), changes in apex predator diets (e.g., polar bears eating less ringed seal), and changes in animal distributions (e.g., polar bears remaining closer to land over time). The Beaufort Sea model is a dynamic tool for Arctic Ocean natural resource management in the years to come.

  17. Breaks in MODIS time series portend vegetation change: verification using long-term data in an arid grassland ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, Dawn M; Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W; Peters, Debra C

    2017-07-01

    Frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are forecast to increase in the 21st century. Predicting how managed ecosystems may respond to climatic extremes is intensified by uncertainty associated with knowing when, where, and how long effects of extreme events will be manifest in an ecosystem. In water-limited ecosystems with high inter-annual variability in rainfall, it is important to be able to distinguish responses that result from seasonal fluctuations in rainfall from long-term directional increases or decreases in precipitation. A tool that successfully distinguishes seasonal from directional biomass responses would allow land managers to make informed decisions about prioritizing mitigation strategies, allocating human resource monitoring efforts, and mobilizing resources to withstand extreme climatic events. We leveraged long-term observations (2000-2013) of quadrat-level plant biomass at multiple locations across a semiarid landscape in southern New Mexico to verify the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data as a proxy for changes in aboveground productivity. This period encompassed years of sustained drought (2000-2003) and record-breaking high rainfall (2006 and 2008) followed by subsequent drought years (2011 through 2013) that resulted in a restructuring of plant community composition in some locations. Our objective was to decompose vegetation patterns derived from MODIS NDVI over this period into contributions from (1) the long-term trend, (2) seasonal cycle, and (3) unexplained variance using the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) model. BFAST breakpoints in NDVI trend and seasonal components were verified with field-estimated biomass at 15 sites that differed in species richness, vegetation cover, and soil properties. We found that 34 of 45 breaks in NDVI trend reflected large changes in mean biomass and 16 of 19 seasonal

  18. Case study the Cs-137 Zea mays grown at a semi arid ecosystem the Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cervantes, L.; Quintero, E.; Rojas, V.

    2006-01-01

    A study of 1 37Cs in soil and Maize plants, (Zea mays) has been performed at the confined Storage Centre for Radioactive Waste from Mexico. The site is located in a semiarid region with a vegetation characteristic of a temperature sub humid zone. Under field conditions the site was divided in four zones 20x30 m, with different soil contamination characteristics, the zones 1 to 4 in lines separated 50 cm between them. The maize plants in the lines were separated 40 cm between them. The plants were grown 'in situ' reproducing the local agricultural. The soil and plant (root, stem, leaves, and grains) samples were analysed for 1 37Cs . The specific activities were determined in a dry weight (d.w.) basis by low background gamma spectrometry with a 29.7% relative efficiency HPGe detector . The geometry used was a 500 ml Marinelli beaker and the measurement time was 60.000 s per sample, to achieve a detection limit of 1 Bq.kg - 1 for 1 37Cs. The counting errors for the measurements were usually lower than 10% The results indicate that one of the zones had a striking 1 37Cs contamination in the soil and the uptake by the grown plants showed the highest specific activities at the root. For The results from 1991 to 1994 of the yearly average values for 1 37Cs in soil samples from the four zones. A striking contamination is evident in zone 1.The transfer factors ranges for the different parts of the maize plants was from 0.001 in the grain to 0.6 in the root. Statistical analyses were based on the mean values of the determination performed from each sampling zone. Pe arson's correlation coefficients were calculated, principal components were obtained, based on the correlation matrix of the measured, or calculated from them

  19. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

  20. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

  1. Biomass is the main driver of changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohbeck, M.W.M.; Poorter, L.; Martinez-Ramos, M.; Bongers, F.

    2015-01-01

    Over half of the world's forests are disturbed, and the rate at which ecosystem processes recover after disturbance is important for the services these forests can provide. We analyze the drivers' underlying changes in rates of key ecosystem processes (biomass productivity, litter productivity,

  2. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  3. Valuing the risk reduction of coastal ecosystems in data poor environments: an application in Quintana Roo, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reguero, B. G.; Toimil, A.; Escudero, M.; Menendez, P.; Losada, I. J.; Beck, M. W.; Secaira, F.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal risks are increasing from both economic growth and climate change. Understanding such risks is critical to assessing adaptation needs and finding cost effective solutions for coastal sustainability. Interest is growing in the role that nature-based measures can play in adapting to climate change. Here we apply and advance a framework to value the risk reduction potential of coastal ecosystems, with an application in a large scale domain, the coast of Quintana Roo, México, relevant for coastal policy and management, but with limited data. We build from simple to use open-source tools. We first assess the hazards using stochastic simulation of historical tropical storms and inferring two scenarios of future climate change for the next 20 years, which include the effect of sea level rise and changes in frequency and intensity of storms. For each storm, we obtain wave and surge fields using parametrical models, corrected with pre-computed static wind surge numerical simulations. We then assess losses on capital stock and hotels and calculate total people flooded, after accounting for the effect of coastal ecosystems in reducing coastal hazards. We inferred the location of major barrier reefs and dune systems using available satellite imagery, and sections of bathymetry and elevation data. We also digitalized the surface of beaches and location of coastal structures from satellite imagery. In a poor data environment, where there is not bathymetry data for the whole of the region, we inferred representative coastal profiles of coral reef and dune sections and validated at available sections with measured data. Because we account for the effect of reefs, dunes and mangroves in coastal profiles every 200 m of shoreline, we are able to estimate the value of such ecosystems by comparing with benchmark simulations when we take them out of the propagation and flood model. Although limited in accuracy in comparison to more complex modeling, this approach is able to

  4. The Caledonian mountains. Northern Europe, and their changing ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonesson, M.

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available With the exception of solar conditions, the climate of the Caledonian Mountains, Northern Europe, is influenced more by the nearness to the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf Stream than by altitude and latitude. The length of the photoperiod during the growing season increases with latitude, although the total solar influx decreases. Heaths composed of species with a boreal distribution are particularly characteristic at low altitudes and latitudes, whereas species with an arctic and arctic-alpine distribution dominate at high altitudes and latitudes. Periodic events in the population dynamics of certain plant and animal species distinguish the ecosystems at high latitudes from those at low latitude. The effects of global change are likely to become most pronounced in the north since the rate at which the ultraviolet-B (UV-B absorbing ozone layer is being reduced and the increase in concentration of «greenhouse gases» in the atmosphere are both higher in the arctic than in regions further south. Changes in the ecosystems due to increased direct human impacts are also likely to occur in some areas.

    [fr] À l'exception des conditions solaires, le climat des montagnes dites «Caledonian», au Nord de l'Europe, est beaucoup plus influencé par la proximité de l'Océan Atlantique et le Goulf Stream que par l'altitude ou la latitude. La durée de la photopériode pendant la saison de végétation augmente avec la latitude, tandis que la radiation solaire total s'abaisse. À des altitudes et latitudes basses, les landes riches en espèces à distribution boréale deviennent caractéristiques, tandis que les espèces arctiques et artico-alpines dominent dans les hautes altitudes ou latitudes. Des événements périodiques dans la dynamique de la population de certains animaux ou plantes peuvent distinguer les écosystèmes des hautes latitudes de ceux de basse latitude. Les effets du changement climatique global seraient bien sûr plus prononcés au

  5. Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2018-04-01

    Germany’s forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services ‘carbon’ and ‘timber’ benefit from climate change, while ‘water’ and ‘habitat’ lose. We detect clear trade-offs between ‘timber’ and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining

  6. Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

    2015-09-01

    Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

  7. Towards a Stochastic Predictive Understanding of Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience to Environmental Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem processes respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Process-based modeling of ecosystem functioning is therefore challenging, especially when long-term predictions are envisioned. Here we analyze the statistical properties of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability, i.e., the variability of ecosystem process related to vegetation carbon dynamics, from hourly to decadal timescales. 23 extra-tropical forest sites, covering different climatic zones and vegetation characteristics, are examined. Micrometeorological and reanalysis data of precipitation, air temperature, shortwave radiation and vapor pressure deficit are used to describe hydrometeorological variability. Ecosystem variability is quantified using long-term eddy covariance flux data of hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between land surface and atmosphere, monthly remote sensing vegetation indices, annual tree-ring widths and above-ground biomass increment estimates. We find that across sites and timescales ecosystem variability is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope that describes the range of variability of the available resources, i.e., water and energy. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. We derive an analytical model, combining deterministic harmonics and stochastic processes, that represents major mechanisms and uncertainties and mimics the observed pattern of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. This stochastic framework offers a parsimonious and mathematically tractable approach for modelling ecosystem functioning and for understanding its response and resilience to environmental changes. Furthermore, this framework reflects well the observed ecological memory, an inherent property of ecosystem functioning that is currently not

  8. 77 FR 29555 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-18

    ...; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment 2 for the South Atlantic Region; Correction AGENCY: National Marine...: Correcting amendment. SUMMARY: This action corrects the final rule implementing the Comprehensive Ecosystem...

  9. The impacts of past climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradshaw, R.H.W.; Anderson, N.J.

    2001-01-01

    The last two million years of global history have been dominated by the impacts of rapid climate change. This influence is not immediately obvious to most biologists whose observations rarely extend beyond a period of a few years, but becomes apparent when interpreting long-term data sets whether they be population studies or palaeoecological data. It is appropriate therefore to consider how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have responded to climate change during the Quaternary when speculating about response to future climatic developments. In this chapter we discuss and illustrate the complex interactions between climate and anthropogenic influence on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems during the Holocene. Climate influences ecosystems both directly (e.g. physiological responses or lake thermal stratification) and indirectly (e.g. via fire frequency or catchment hydrology). Lake sediments can be used to study both past climatic change directly and the effects of past climatic variability. In this chapter we present summary examples of the influence of past climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems as well showing how lake sediment records can provide proxy records of past climate change. The geological record from the last 18 000 years documents large changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that are primarily driven by climatic change, but are modified by internal ecosystem processes. These changes are comparable in magnitude and rapidity to those predicted for the near future. Species at their distributional limits are particularly sensitive to climate change and contractions of range can be sudden in response to extreme climatic events such as the storm of December 1999 that damaged Picea trees far more than tree species that lay within their natural range limits. Palaeoecological records provide compelling evidence for direct climate forcing of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems but importantly also permit comparative analyses of impacts

  10. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

  11. Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

  12. The continental shelf benthic ecosystem: Current status, agents for change and future prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, S.J.

    2002-01-01

    Metadata only record Continental shelf benthic ecosystems play an important role in the economy of many coastal states through the provision of food, non-living resources and through control of climate. Changes in the status of these ecosystems, through either natural or human-induced environmental drivers can be expected to have important economic and social consequences. Agents that could induce change include climate and oceanography, hydrology (river discharge), land-use and waste disp...

  13. Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: a state-of-the-knowledge review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy R. McPherson; Jake F. Weltzin

    2000-01-01

    This review evaluates the effects and importance of disturbance and climate change on plant community dynamics in the United States/Mexico borderlands region. Our primary focus is on knowledge of physiognomic-level change in grasslands and woodlands of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Changes in vegetation physiognomy have broad implications for...

  14. Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, Andrew J; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P; Arrigo, Kevin R; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnes, David K A; Bindoff, Nathaniel L; Boyd, Philip W; Brandt, Angelika; Costa, Daniel P; Davidson, Andrew T; Ducklow, Hugh W; Emmerson, Louise; Fukuchi, Mitsuo; Gutt, Julian; Hindell, Mark A; Hofmann, Eileen E; Hosie, Graham W; Iida, Takahiro; Jacob, Sarah; Johnston, Nadine M; Kawaguchi, So; Kokubun, Nobuo; Koubbi, Philippe; Lea, Mary-Anne; Makhado, Azwianewi; Massom, Rob A; Meiners, Klaus; Meredith, Michael P; Murphy, Eugene J; Nicol, Stephen; Reid, Keith; Richerson, Kate; Riddle, Martin J; Rintoul, Stephen R; Smith, Walker O; Southwell, Colin; Stark, Jonathon S; Sumner, Michael; Swadling, Kerrie M; Takahashi, Kunio T; Trathan, Phil N; Welsford, Dirk C; Weimerskirch, Henri; Westwood, Karen J; Wienecke, Barbara C; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Wright, Simon W; Xavier, Jose C; Ziegler, Philippe

    2014-10-01

    Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Ecosystem services and livelihoods - Vulnerability and adaption to a changing climate. VACCIA Synthesis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, I.; Mattson, T.; Niemelae, E.; Vuorenmaa, J.; Forsius, M. (eds.)

    2011-12-15

    This report is a summary of results from the project Vulnerability Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation (VACCIA), funded by the European Union's LIFE+ programme. Partners in the extensive three-year (2009-2011) project, coordinated by the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), included the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the University of Helsinki, the University of Jyvaeskylae and the University of Oulu. Key results from the 13 VACCIA Actions are compiled in the summary. The Actions assessed the threats and challenges posed by climate change to ecosystem services and livelihoods, and suggested methods for adapting to changing conditions. The report also highlights further research needs. The publication's introduction describes the ecosystem service concept and provides an insight into policy processes for handling ecosystem services and their adaptation to a changing climate. Results of the Actions are assembled in the following three chapters, the first presenting key methods used in the project for monitoring changes and predicting future changes, the second describing the change in ecosystem services, and the third reviewing vulnerability and adaptation. An extensive summary section is also included. Annexed tables present the project's key results and conclusions compactly, alongside the resulting adaptation challenges and needs for further research. Monitoring and prediction of changes is based, e.g. on climate and air quality scenarios produced by the project, and remote sensing and geographic information materials. Of ecosystem services, those produced by catchments and water bodies are examined, alongside changes in the biodiversity of coastal, water and forest environments, studied with the help of sample species. Ecosystem services needed by urban areas are examined from the viewpoint of climate change and changes in land use. Among livelihoods, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism are

  16. Quantifying changes in multiple ecosystem services during 1992-2012 in the Sanjiang Plain of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zongming; Mao, Dehua; Li, Lin; Jia, Mingming; Dong, Zhangyu; Miao, Zhenghong; Ren, Chunying; Song, Changchun

    2015-05-01

    Rapid and periodic assessment of the impact of land cover changes on ecosystem services at regional levels is essential to understanding services and sustainability of ecosystems. This study focused on quantifying and assessing changes of multiple ecosystem services in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a result of land cover changes over the period of 1992-2012. This region is important for its large area of natural wetlands and intensive agriculture. The ecosystem services that were assessed for this region included its regulating services (water yield and ecosystem carbon stocks), supporting services (suitable waterbird habitats), and provisioning services (food production), and the approach to the assessment was composed of the surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL), soil survey re-sampling method and an empirical waterbird habitat suitability model. This large scale and integrated investigation represents the first systematic evaluation on the status of ecosystem carbon stocks in the Sanjiang Plain in addition to the development of an effective model for analysis of waterbird habitat suitability with the use of both remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). More importantly, the result from this study has confirmed trade-offs between ecosystem services and negative consequences to environment in this region. The trade-offs were typically manifested by increased water yield and significantly grown food production, which is in contrast with significant losses in ecosystem carbon stocks (-14%) and suitable waterbird habitats (-23%) mainly due to the conversion of land cover from wetland to farmland. This finding implies that land use planning and policy making for this economically important region should take ecosystem service losses into account in order to preserve its natural ecosystems in the best interest of society. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

    2012-12-01

    A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

  18. Assessment of Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauer, F. Richard; Baron, Jill S.; Campbell, Donald H.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steve W.; Leavesley, George H.; Leavitt, Peter R.; McKnight, Diane M.; Stanford, Jack A.

    1997-06-01

    The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2-3-month spring runoff period, rivers frequently discharge > 70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10-100 times mean low flow.Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forcing.Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as

  19. Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V; Cohen, Erika C; McNulty, Steven G; Aldridge, Heather D; Zhang, Yang

    2016-04-21

    The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

  20. Impacts of land use/cover change on ecosystem services for Xiamen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, L.; Cui, S.

    2009-12-01

    Based on remote sensing images of Xiamen in 1987, 1997 and 2007, the process of ecosystem service alteration resulting from land use/cover change was quantitatively analyzed through RS and GIS techniques. Consulting relative researches, an integrated assessment model was built to evaluating regional ecosystem services of Xiamen. The results showed that the total ecosystem service value of Xiamen was increased by 14.67%, from 3271.5 million to 3751.39 RMB. The relative change rate of supplying service, regulation service, cultural service and supporting service were 97.8%, -25.1%, 165.0% and -44.7% respectively, which indicated that land use/ cover change had positive effects on supplying and cultural service, whereas it had negatively affected both regulation service and supporting service. Land use/cover types of Xiamen in 1987, 1997 and 2007 Ecosystem values of Xiamen in 1987, 1997 and 2007 10 thousand RMB

  1. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  2. Spatial and temporal land cover changes in Terminos Lagoon Reserve, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Soto-Galera

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available El ecosistema de Laguna de Términos es el más grande sistema fluvio lagunar estuarino del país y una de las reservas más importantes de flora y fauna costera en México. Desde la década de los setentas, parte de la infraestructura necesaria para la explotación del petróleo en el país se encuentra localizada en esta área. Su importante biodiversidad ha motivado diferentes estudios en el área que incluyen procesos de deforestación y ordenamiento del territorio. Se realizó un análisis de imágenes de satélite para determinar los cambios de uso del suelo y vegetación en el área entre 1974 y 2001. Los resultados indican que la selva tropical y el mangle presentan las mayores pérdidas de cobertura. En contraste, las áreas urbanas y los pastos inducidos han incrementado considerablemente su extensión. En el año 2001 más de la mitad del área ocupada por el ecosistema mostró cambios en sus coberturas originales y una tercera parte estaba deteriorada. La deforestación fue causada principalmente por el incremento de los pastizales y el crecimiento de las áreas urbanas. Sin embargo, estas pérdidas fueron atenuadas por la regeneración natural. Se concluye que la introducción de pasto para la ganadería y el desarrollo urbano fueron las principales causas de los cambios de uso de suelo, sin embargo, la industria petrolera asentada en el ecosistema ha fomentado indirectamente el crecimiento urbano y el auge ganadero.Terminos Lagoon ecosystem is the largest fluvial-lagoon estuarine system in the country and one of the most important reserves of coastal flora and fauna in Mexico. Since the seventies, part of the main infrastructure for country’s oil extraction is located in this area. Its high biodiversity has motivated different type of studies including deforestation processes and land use planning. In this work we used satellite image analysis to determine land cover changes in the area from 1974 to 2001. Our results indicate

  3. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  4. Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

    2015-01-01

    Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

  5. Ecosystem Service Changes and Livelihood Impacts in the Maguri-Motapung Wetlands of Assam, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laxmi D. Bhatta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Wetlands provide a diverse range of ecosystem services supporting livelihoods of many people. Despite their value, wetlands are continuously being degraded. There is scant information on individual wetlands, people’s dependency and their exploitation at a local scale. We therefore assessed wetland ecosystem services, the drivers of change and impacts of those drivers on ecosystem services and people’s dependency through a case study of the Maguri-Motapung Beel wetlands of Assam, India. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and community workshops. The analyses showed a total of 29 ecosystem services, and high dependency on these with five out of seven livelihood strategies sourced from ecosystem services. Over-exploitation of wetland resources and siltation were reported as the major direct drivers of change with impacts on both ecosystem services and people’s livelihoods. Drastic decreases in availability of thatch, fish stocks, fodder and tourism were observed. This suggests that there is an urgent need for a comprehensive participatory management plan. Actions are needed to maintain the Maguri-Motapung Beel wetlands and the flow of services in order to sustain people’s livelihoods in the area. With an estimated 50% global loss of wetlands in the last century and the loss of 5,000 square kilometers a year in Asia alone, the loss of ecosystem services and livelihood impacts shown in our study may be typical of what is occurring in the region and perhaps globally.

  6. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  7. Current status of the East Sea Ecosystem in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang Heon; Kang, Chang-Keun; Lee, Chung IL; Kwak, Jung Hyun

    2017-12-01

    The East/Japan Sea (hereafter the East Sea) is changing quickly. Warming and structural changes in the East Sea have been reported by CREAMS, an acronym of ″Circulation Research of the East Asian Marginal Seas″, which began in 1993 as an international research program to understand the water mass structure and circulation in the East Sea (Kim and Kim, 1996; Kim, 1997; Kim et al., 2001, 2002). A subsequent research program of the EAST-I, an acronym of ″the East Asian Seas Time-series″, was launched by PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization) and financially supported by the Korean government, allowing us to deepen our knowledge about rapidly changing processes in the East Sea (Chang et al., 2010). Although there has been considerable progress in developing a mechanistic understanding of the East Sea ecosystem responses to disturbances, more comprehensive studies are needed to address the impacts of the frequency and intensity of disturbances on marine ecosystems. The most important question of the research has been: how do environmental changes affect structural and functional biodiversity? Recently launched research on ″Long-term change of structure and function in marine ecosystems of Korea″, which has been supported by the Korean government since 2011, has given an unprecedented insight into the ecosystem dynamics in the East Sea. It therefore seems an appropriate time to devote a special issue to the topic of ″Current status of the East Sea ecosystem in a changing world″.

  8. People, pollution and pathogens - Global change impacts in mountain freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeller, Dirk S; Loyau, Adeline; Bao, Kunshan; Brack, Werner; Chatzinotas, Antonis; De Vleeschouwer, Francois; Friesen, Jan; Gandois, Laure; Hansson, Sophia V; Haver, Marilen; Le Roux, Gaël; Shen, Ji; Teisserenc, Roman; Vredenburg, Vance T

    2018-05-01

    Mountain catchments provide for the livelihood of more than half of humankind, and have become a key destination for tourist and recreation activities globally. Mountain ecosystems are generally considered to be less complex and less species diverse due to the harsh environmental conditions. As such, they are also more sensitive to the various impacts of the Anthropocene. For this reason, mountain regions may serve as sentinels of change and provide ideal ecosystems for studying climate and global change impacts on biodiversity. We here review different facets of anthropogenic impacts on mountain freshwater ecosystems. We put particular focus on micropollutants and their distribution and redistribution due to hydrological extremes, their direct influence on water quality and their indirect influence on ecosystem health via changes of freshwater species and their interactions. We show that those changes may drive pathogen establishment in new environments with harmful consequences for freshwater species, but also for the human population. Based on the reviewed literature, we recommend reconstructing the recent past of anthropogenic impact through sediment analyses, to focus efforts on small, but highly productive waterbodies, and to collect data on the occurrence and variability of microorganisms, biofilms, plankton species and key species, such as amphibians due to their bioindicator value for ecosystem health and water quality. The newly gained knowledge can then be used to develop a comprehensive framework of indicators to robustly inform policy and decision making on current and future risks for ecosystem health and human well-being. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Rising tides, cumulative impacts and cascading changes to estuarine ecosystem functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Meara, Theresa A; Hillman, Jenny R; Thrush, Simon F

    2017-08-31

    In coastal ecosystems, climate change affects multiple environmental factors, yet most predictive models are based on simple cause-and-effect relationships. Multiple stressor scenarios are difficult to predict because they can create a ripple effect through networked ecosystem functions. Estuarine ecosystem function relies on an interconnected network of physical and biological processes. Estuarine habitats play critical roles in service provision and represent global hotspots for organic matter processing, nutrient cycling and primary production. Within these systems, we predicted functional changes in the impacts of land-based stressors, mediated by changing light climate and sediment permeability. Our in-situ field experiment manipulated sea level, nutrient supply, and mud content. We used these stressors to determine how interacting environmental stressors influence ecosystem function and compared results with data collected along elevation gradients to substitute space for time. We show non-linear, multi-stressor effects deconstruct networks governing ecosystem function. Sea level rise altered nutrient processing and impacted broader estuarine services ameliorating nutrient and sediment pollution. Our experiment demonstrates how the relationships between nutrient processing and biological/physical controls degrade with environmental stress. Our results emphasise the importance of moving beyond simple physically-forced relationships to assess consequences of climate change in the context of ecosystem interactions and multiple stressors.

  10. Arctic alpine ecosystems and people in a changing environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ørbæk, Jon Børre

    2007-01-01

    ... for the population structures and the interaction between species. These changes may also have socio-economic effects if the changes affect the bio-production, which form the basis for the marine and terrestrial food chains. The book is uniquely multidisciplinary and provides examples of various aspects of contemporary environmental change in arctic and ...

  11. Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Luz, Ana C; Cabeza, Mar; Pyhälä, Aili; Reyes-García, Victoria

    2015-03-01

    The use of Local Environmental Knowledge has been considered as an important strategy for adaptive management in the face of Global Environmental Change. However, the unprecedented rates at which global change occurs may pose a challenge to the adaptive capacity of local knowledge systems. In this paper, we use the concept of the shifting baseline syndrome to examine the limits in the adaptive capacity of the local knowledge of an indigenous society facing rapid ecosystem change. We conducted semi-structured interviews regarding perceptions of change in wildlife populations and in intergenerational transmission of knowledge amongst the Tsimane', a group of hunter-gatherers of Bolivian Amazonia ( n = 300 adults in 13 villages). We found that the natural baseline against which the Tsimane' measure ecosystem changes might be shifting with every generation as a result of (a) age-related differences in the perception of change and (b) a decrease in the intergenerational sharing of environmental knowledge. Such findings suggest that local knowledge systems might not change at a rate quick enough to adapt to conditions of rapid ecosystem change, hence potentially compromising the adaptive success of the entire social-ecological system. With the current pace of Global Environmental Change, widening the gap between the temporal rates of on-going ecosystem change and the timescale needed for local knowledge systems to adjust to change, efforts to tackle the shifting baseline syndrome are urgent and critical for those who aim to use Local Environmental Knowledge as a tool for adaptive management.

  12. Social-ecological dynamics of change and restoration attempts in the Chihuahuan Desert grasslands of Janos Biosphere Reserve, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrub encroachment and grassland loss are widespread throughout the US-Mexico borderlands with negative consequences for production of livestock and ecosystem services. In this paper we detail the complex social and ecological phenomena associated with this pattern of degradation in a large area in ...

  13. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

    2005-01-01

    Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

  14. 75 FR 39638 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-12

    ...; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment 1 for the South Atlantic Region; Correction AGENCY: National Marine... Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment 1 for the South Atlantic region that published in the Federal Register...

  15. Preface: Biogeochemistry–ecosystem interaction on changing continental margins in the Anthropocene

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Liu, K-K.; Emeis, K.-C.; Levin, L.A.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Roman, M.

    and hypercapnia in upwelling systems • Interactions between natural and social sciences for better steward- ship of continental margins. It has long been acknowledged (e.g., Doney, 2010; Liu et al., 2010) that marine ecosystems on continental margins, including... and possibly manage margin ecosystems in a changing world. Effective governance of social–ecological systems on continental margins is key to reducing the pervasive over- exploitation, depletion and destruction of marine resources and http://dx.doi.org/10...

  16. 75 FR 35330 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ...; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment for the South Atlantic Region AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service...: NMFS issues this final rule to implement the Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment 1 (CE-BA1) to the... pristine deepwater coral ecosystems in the world while minimizing the effects on traditional fishing in the...

  17. 75 FR 14548 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-26

    ...; Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based Amendment for the South Atlantic Region AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service... for comments. SUMMARY: NMFS issues this proposed rule to implement the Comprehensive Ecosystem-Based... ecosystems in the world while minimizing the effects on traditional fishing in the Deepwater Coral HAPCs...

  18. Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yonglong; Yuan, Jingjing; Lu, Xiaotian; Su, Chao; Zhang, Yueqing; Wang, Chenchen; Cao, Xianghui; Li, Qifeng; Su, Jilan; Ittekkot, Venugopalan; Garbutt, Richard Angus; Bush, Simon; Fletcher, Stephen; Wagey, Tonny; Kachur, Anatolii; Sweijd, Neville

    2018-08-01

    Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Emer; O' Riordan, Ruth M; Culloty, Sarah C

    2013-03-01

    Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010-mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment.

  20. Estuaries of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: Laboratories of Long-term Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingard, G.L.; Hudley, J.W.; Marshall, F.E.

    2010-01-01

    Restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem of south Florida is arguably the largest ecosystem restoration effort to date. A critical goal is to return more natural patterns of flow through south Florida wetlands and into the estuaries, but development of realistic targets requires acknowledgement that ecosystems are constantly evolving and changing in response to a variety of natural and human-driven stressors. Examination of ecosystems over long periods of time requires analysis of sedimentary records, such as those deposited in the wetlands and estuaries of south Florida. As sediment accumulates, it preserves information about the animals and plants that lived in the environment and the physical, chemical, and climatic conditions present. One of the methods used to interpret this information is paleoecology-the study of the ecology of previously living organisms. Paleoecologic investigations of south Florida estuaries provide quantitative data on historical variability of salinity and trends that may be applied to statistical models to estimate historical freshwater flow. These data provide a unique context to estimate future ecosystem response to changes related to restoration activities and predicted changes in sea level and temperature, thus increasing the likelihood of successful and sustainable ecosystem restoration.

  1. The impact of changing medicaid enrollments on New Mexico's Immunization Program.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Schillaci

    Full Text Available Immunizations are an important component to pediatric primary care. New Mexico is a relatively poor and rural state which has sometimes struggled to achieve and maintain its childhood immunization rates. We evaluated New Mexico's immunization rates between 1996 and 2006. Specifically, we examined the increase in immunization rates between 2002 and 2004, and how this increase may have been associated with Medicaid enrollment levels, as opposed to changes in government policies concerning immunization practices.This study examines trends in childhood immunization coverage rates relative to Medicaid enrollment among those receiving Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF in New Mexico. Information on health policy changes and immunization coverage was obtained from state governmental sources and the National Immunization Survey. We found statistically significant correlations varying from 0.86 to 0.93 between immunization rates and Medicaid enrollment.New Mexico's improvement and subsequent deterioration in immunization rates corresponded with changing Medicaid coverage, rather than the state's efforts to change immunization practices. Maintaining high Medicaid enrollment levels may be important for achieving high childhood immunization levels.

  2. Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Kenneth W. Vance-Borland; J. Bradley St. Clair; Andreas Hamann; Javier López-Upton; Erika Gómez-Pineda; Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez; Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

    2018-01-01

    Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic...

  3. The Impact of Changing Medicaid Enrollments on New Mexico's Immunization Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schillaci, Michael A.; Waitzkin, Howard; Sharmen, Tom; Romain, Sandra J.

    2008-01-01

    Background Immunizations are an important component to pediatric primary care. New Mexico is a relatively poor and rural state which has sometimes struggled to achieve and maintain its childhood immunization rates. We evaluated New Mexico's immunization rates between 1996 and 2006. Specifically, we examined the increase in immunization rates between 2002 and 2004, and how this increase may have been associated with Medicaid enrollment levels, as opposed to changes in government policies concerning immunization practices. Methods and Findings This study examines trends in childhood immunization coverage rates relative to Medicaid enrollment among those receiving Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) in New Mexico. Information on health policy changes and immunization coverage was obtained from state governmental sources and the National Immunization Survey. We found statistically significant correlations varying from 0.86 to 0.93 between immunization rates and Medicaid enrollment. Conclusions New Mexico's improvement and subsequent deterioration in immunization rates corresponded with changing Medicaid coverage, rather than the state's efforts to change immunization practices. Maintaining high Medicaid enrollment levels may be important for achieving high childhood immunization levels. PMID:19107189

  4. Exploring ecosystem-change and society through a landscape lens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plieninger, Tobias; Kizos, Thanasis; Bieling, Claudia

    2015-01-01

    Landscapes are closely linked to human well-being, but they are undergoing rapid and fundamental change. Understanding the societal transformation underlying these landscape changes, as well as the ecological and societal outcomes of landscape transformations across scales are prime areas for lan...

  5. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  6. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  7. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  8. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

  9. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

  10. Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Checkley, David M.; Koslow, J. Anthony

    2017-01-01

    concentrations and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean-atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases......, or whether the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom-up, top-down and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California...

  11. Growing population and ecosystem change increase human schistosomiasis around Lake Malaŵi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bocxlaer, Bert; Albrecht, Christian; Stauffer, Jay R

    2014-05-01

    Multiple anthropogenic environmental stressors with reinforcing effects to the deterioration of ecosystem stability can obscure links between ecosystem change and the prevalence of infectious diseases. Incomplete understanding may lead to ineffective public health and disease control strategies, as appears to be the case with increased urogenital schistosomiasis in humans around Lake Malaŵi over recent decades. Sedimentation and eutrophication help explain historical changes in intermediate host range and parasite transmission. Hence, control strategies should account for abiotic changes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Zhi Jiao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  13. Gulf of Mexico: Dealing with Change in a Marginal Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabalais, N. N.

    2017-12-01

    The Gulf of Mexico is shared by the United States, Mexico and Cuba and requires collaborative work for integrated management to conserve its natural assets and derived benefits, as well as to foster the overall regional economic wealth. Many rivers drain into the Gulf, most notably the Mississippi, which ranks among global rivers 4th in discharge, 7th in sediment load and 3rd in drainage area, and accounts for about 90 percent of the freshwater inflow to the Gulf. The Mississippi River proper empties onto a narrow ( 20 km wide) continental shelf, and its tributary, the Atchafalaya River, that carries about one third of the total flow discharges onto the broad ( 200 km) and shallow part of the shelf. The entrainment of the Mississippi River discharge into the Louisiana Coastal Current results in the semblance of an extended estuary across much of the inner to mid continental shelf for much of the year. The nitrogen load from the Mississippi River to the adjacent continental shelf over the last half century has increased by 300 per cent. As a result, eutrophication and hypoxia have developed in this stratified coastal system with implications for biogeochemical cycles and valued resources. While there is recognition that over half of the nitrogen sources come from agricultural practices widespread across the watershed, the environmental goal of bringing a 32-year average 13,800 square kilometers of bottom-water hypoxia to less than 5,000 square kilometers is being realized through voluntary and incentive-based activities, designed within a series of subbasin and state strategies. Some activities funded by the US Department of Agriculture for directed nutrient reduction projects and several small-scale voluntary actions towards sustainable and ecologically sound agriculture show promise, but large-scale social-political solutions do not exist now nor will they for the forseeable future. The coastal waters adjacent to the Mississippi River are just one of many such

  14. Combined global change effects on ecosystem processes in nine U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melannie D. Hartman; Jill S. Baron; Holly A. Ewing; Kathleen C. Weathers; Chelcy Miniat

    2014-01-01

    Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds...

  15. Program on ecosystem change and society: An international research strategy for integrated social-ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R.; Folke, C.; Norström, A.V.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.A.; Scholes, R.J.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  16. Program on ecosystem change and society: an international research strategy for integrated social–ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R; Folke, C.; Nordström, A.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  17. An Inquiry-Based Science Activity Centred on the Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boaventura, Diana; Guilherme, Elsa; Faria, Cláudia

    2016-01-01

    We propose an inquiry-based science activity centred on the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems. This activity can be used to improve acquisition of knowledge on the effects of climate change and to promote inquiry skills, such as researching, reading and selecting relevant information, identifying a problem, focusing on a research…

  18. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  19. Global climate change and potential effects on pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.D. Bryant

    2009-01-01

    General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1◦C to 5◦C as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change which will in turn...

  20. Soil changes in forest ecosystems: evidence for and probable causes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, D W [Nevada Univ., Reno, NV (United States). Desert Research Inst. Nevada Univ., Reno, NV (US). Dept. of Range, Wildlife and Forestry; Cresser, M S [Aberdeen Univ. (GB). Dept. of Soil Science; Nilsson, S I [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Research; Turner, John [New South Wales Forestry Commission, Sydney (AU). Wood Technology and Forest Research Div.; Ulrich, Bernhard [Goettingen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Bodenkunde und Waldernaehrung; Binkley, Dan [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Forest and Wood Sciences; Cole, D W [Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States). Coll. of Forest Resources

    1990-01-01

    A review of the literature on forest soil change in North America, Central Europe, Sweden, U.K., and Australia reveals that changes are occurring in both polluted and unpolluted sites at a greater rate than previously suspected. Acid deposition has played a major role in recent acidification in some areas of Europe and, to a more limited extent, in Sweden and eastern North America. However, rapid rates of soil acidification are occurring in western North America and Australia due to internal processes such as tree uptake and nitrification associated with excessive nitrogen fixation. The presence of extremely acid soils is not necessarily an indicator of significant acidic deposition, as evidenced by their presence in unpolluted, even pristine forests of the north-western U.S.A. and Alaska. Numerous studies in Sweden, Australia, and North America show the important effects of tree uptake and harvesting upon soil acidification in managed forests. Furthermore, arguments can be presented that harvesting takes a greater toll upon the pools of potentially limiting cations than leaching. The rate at which soils are changing in some instances calls for re-evaluation of the budget analyses used to predict soil change. Specifically, inter-horizon changes due to uptake and recycling by vegetation, the interactions of such changes with naturally-and anthropogenically-produced acids, and the effects of aluminium uptake and recycling need further evaluation and study. (Author).

  1. Changes in ecosystem service values in Zhoushan Island using remote sensing time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoping; Qin, Yanpei; Lv, Ying; Zhen, Guangwei; Gong, Fang; Li, Chaokui

    2017-10-01

    The largest inhabited island, Zhoushan Island, is the center of economy, culture, shipping, and fishing in the Zhoushan Archipelago New Area. Its coastal wetland and tidal flats offer significant ecological services including floodwater storage, wildlife habitat, and buffers against tidal surges. Yet, large-scale land reclamation and new land development may dramatically change ecosystem services. In this research, we assess changes in ecosystem service values in Zhoushan Island during 1990-2000-2011. Three LANDSAT TM and/or ETM data sets were used to determine the spatial pattern of land use, and previously published value coefficients were used to calculate the ecosystem service values delivered by each land category. The results show that total value of ecosystem services in Zhoushan Island declined by 11% from 2920.07 billion Yuan to 2609.77 billion Yuan per year between 1990 and 2011. This decrease is largely attributable to the 51% loss of tidal flats. The combined ecosystem service values of woodland, paddy land and tidal flats were over 90% of the total values. The result indicates that future land-use policy should pay attention to the conservation of these ecosystems over uncontrolled reclamation and coastal industrial development, and that further coastal reclamation should be on rigorous environmental impact analyses.

  2. Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingya; Li, Jing; Qin, Keyu; Zhou, Zixiang; Yang, Xiaonan; Li, Ting

    2017-05-15

    Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems in Sri Lanka: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeevan Dananjaya Kottawa-Arachchi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The climate change impacts are felt by all facets and sectors of ecosystems, covering flora, fauna and environment. Sri Lanka is considered as a vulnerable, small island country that is under serious threat from climate change impacts. The most profound impacts of climate change in Sri Lanka will be on agriculture and food security, water and coastal resources, biodiversity changes, and human health. Sri Lanka's biodiversity is significantly important both on a regional and global scale as it has the highest species density for flowering plants, amphibians, reptiles, and mammals. Sri Lanka's varied ecosystems provide many services that are of significant economic value and play a crucial role in providing goods and ecosystem services. The subsequent sections featuring specific aspects of biodiversity in forests, freshwater wetlands, coastal and marine systems and agricultural systems, provide greater detail on the ecosystem services and bio-resources. Habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive alien species, deforestation and forest degradation, development projects, environmental pollutions and climate change (global warming are the major threats to the biodiversity of the country. Climate change impacts on environment lead to a reduction in the distribution and abundance of species, especially endemics, which may even result in their global extinction. The introduction of various policies and guidelines in relation to environment is a good sign for conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. The government of Sri Lanka has been implementing various environmental projects aiming at reducing deforestation and degradation of ecosystems. Policies and measures already developed under such initiatives will no doubt preserve natural habitats for plant and animal species. However, being a developing country with many economic challenges, the funds and expertise available for monitoring climate change impacts and biodiversity conservation are not

  4. The nuclear energy like an option in Mexico before the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez M, B.; Puente E, F.; Ortiz O, H. B.; Avila P, P.; Flores C, J.

    2014-10-01

    The current energy poverty, the future necessities of energy and the climatic change caused by the global warming, are factors that associates each, manifest with more clarity the unsustainable production way and energy consumption that demands the society in the current life. This work analyzes the nuclear energy generation like an alternative from the environmental view point that ties with the sustainable development and the formulation of energy use models that require the countries at global level. With this purpose were collected and reviewed documented data of the energy resources, current and future energy consumption and the international commitments of Mexico regarding to greenhouse gases reduction. For Mexico two implementation scenarios of nuclear reactors type BWR and A BWR were analyzed, in compliance with the goals and policy development established in the National Strategy of Climatic Change and the National Strategy of Energy; the scenarios were analyzed through the emissions to the air of CO 2 , (main gas of greenhouse effect) which avoids when the energy production is obtained by nuclear reactors instead of consumptions of traditional fuels, such as coal, diesel, natural gas and fuel oil. The obtained results reflect that the avoided emissions contribute from 4.2% until 40% to the national goal that Mexico has committed to the international community through the Convention Marco of the United Nations against the Climatic Change (CMNUCC). These results recommends to the nuclear energy like a sustainable energy solution on specific and current conditions for Mexico. (Author)

  5. Continuity and change of cohabitation in Mexico: Same as before or different anew

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julieta Pérez Amador

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Mexico experienced a boom in cohabitation during the 2000s, which has sparked a debate about whether the nature of cohabitation has changed along with its increasing overall rates and diffusion to diverse social groups. Objective: We examine continuity and change in the dynamics of cohabitation in Mexico to address whether it has largely hewed to prior patterns or taken on new forms. Methods: We analyze the marital histories of 99,387 female respondents in the 2009 National Survey of Demographic Dynamics using multistate event-history techniques. Results: Mexico's cohabitation boom of the 2000s was driven by cohorts born after 1975, whose cohabiting unions are less likely to transition to marriage than those formed by earlier cohorts. However, the tendency of cohabiters to marry is greater among the higher educated. Conclusions: Cohabitation in Mexico used to be rare, concentrated among less-educated women, and mostly a prelude to marriage. As it became more common in the 2000s it also took on at least two distinct patterns. Among the less educated, cohabitation became a common union-formation option, shifting to a longer-term substitute for marriage. Cohabitation also grew, from a lower baseline, among the upper educated; but for them, it is usually a short stage, either transitioning to marriage or ending in separation. Contribution: Our findings contribute to the literature on international family change by providing an additional case study, different in geographical and cultural setting, of the global rise of cohabitation.

  6. Ecohydrology of adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems: the consequences of climate change and disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.

    2014-01-01

    Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance.

  7. Irrigation and avifaunal change in coastal Northwest Mexico: has irrigated habit attracted threatened migratory species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grason, Emily; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G.

    2015-01-01

    Irrigation in desert ecosystems can either reduce or increase species diversity. Groundwater pumping often lowers water tables and reduces natural wetlands, whereas canal irrigation often creates mesic habitat, resulting in great increases in avian diversity from irrigation. Here we compare a dataset of potential natural vegetation to recent datasets from areal and satellite imagery to show that 60% of the land in the coastal plain of southern Sonora and northern Sinaloa lying below 200 m elevation has been converted by irrigation to more mesic habitats. We then use the record of bird specimens in the world’s museums from this same region of Mexico to examine the avian community before and after the development of extensive irrigation. In general these museum records show an increase in the abundance and diversity of breeding birds associated with mesic habitats. Although thorn forest birds have likely decreased in total numbers, most are common enough in the remaining thorn forest that collection records did not indicate their probable decline. Four migrants having most of their breeding ranges in the US or Canada, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Cliff Swallow, Bell’s Vireo, and Orchard Oriole, apparently have increased dramatically as breeders in irrigated habitats of NW Mexico. Because these species have decreased or even largely disappeared as breeding birds in parts of the US or Canada, further research should assess whether their increases in new mesic habitats of NW Mexico are linked to their declines as breeding birds in Canada and the US For Bell’s Vireo recent specimens from Sinaloa suggest its new breeding population in NW Mexico may be composed partly of the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo. PMID:26312181

  8. Addressing global change challenges for Central Asian socio-ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jiaguo; Bobushev, Temirbek S.; Kulmatov, Rashid; Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik

    2012-06-01

    Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions on the planet earth to global climate change, depending on very fragile natural resources. The Soviet legacy has left the five countries (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) with a highly integrated system but they are facing great challenges with tensions that hinder regional coordination of food and water resources. With increasing climate variability and warming trend in the region, food and water security issues become even more crucial now and, if not addressed properly, could affect the regional stability. The long-term drivers of these two most critical elements, food and water, are climate change; the immediate and probably more drastic factors affecting the food and water security are land uses driven by institutional change and economic incentives. As a feedback, changes in land use and land cover have directly implications on water uses, food production, and lifestyles of the rural community in the region. Regional and international efforts have been made to holistically understand the cause, extent, rate and societal implications of land use changes in the region. Much of these have been understood, or under investigation by various projects, but solutions or research effort to develop solutions, to these urgent regional issues are lacking. This article, serves as an introduction to the special issue, provides a brief overview of the challenges facing the Central Asian countries and various international efforts in place that resulted in the publications of this special issue.

  9. Changes of land use and of ecosystem service values in Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zongming; Zhang, Bai; Zhang, Shuqing; Li, Xiaoyan; Liu, Dianwei; Song, Kaishan; Li, Jianping; Li, Fang; Duan, Hongtao

    2006-01-01

    Agricultural activities, especially reclamation, are considered major threats to the wetland ecosystems in Sanjiang Plain, the largest concentrated area of the freshwater wetlands in China. In the past decades, the area of the cultivated land and its grain production have been increased at the cost of wetlands shrinkage. The large-scale land reclamation severely affected the ecosystems in this region. However, such effects at the regional scale are seldom evaluated quantitatively. We used three datasets of LANDSAT MSS and/or TM imagery to estimate the area changes and the transition of land use types from 1980 to 2000. We also valued changes in ecosystem services delivered by each land category using value coefficients published by Costanza et al. Sensitivity analysis suggested that these estimates were relatively robust. Finally, the contribution of various ecosystem functions was ranked to the overall value of the ecosystem services in this study. According to our estimates, the total annual ecosystem service values in Sanjiang Plain have declined by about 40% between 1980 and 2000 (156284-182572.18 million US dollars in total over 20 years). This substantial decline is largely attributed to the 53.4% loss of wetlands. For individual ecosystem functions, waste treatment, water supply and disturbance regulation account for more than 60% to the total ecological values. During those two decades, the contribution of disturbance regulation, cultural and recreation decreased, while the contribution of water regulation, nutrient cycling, food production, raw materials and climate regulation increased during the same period. We also put forward a few proposals concerning the future land use policy formulation and sustainable ecosystems. They are adjusting the 'food first' agricultural policy, establishing more nature reserves for wetlands, creating systems for the rational use of water, harnessing the degraded cultivated land and encouraging eco-tourism.

  10. Adaptation of Australia’s Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change: Using Science to Inform Conservation Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna E. Johnson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges that climate change poses for marine ecosystems are already manifesting in impacts at the species, population, and community levels in Australia, particularly in Tasmania and tropical northern Australia. Many species and habitats are already under threat as a result of human activities, and the additional pressure from climate change significantly increases the challenge for marine conservation and management. Climate change impacts are expected to magnify as sea surface temperatures, ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, sea level, rainfall, and storm patterns continue to change this century. In particular, keystone species that form the foundation of marine habitats, such as coral reefs, kelp beds, and temperate rocky reefs, are projected to pass thresholds with subsequent implications for communities and ecosystems. This review synthesises recent science in this field: the observed impacts and responses of marine ecosystems to climate change, ecological thresholds of change, and strategies for marine conservation to promote adaptation. Increasing observations of climate-related impacts on Australia’s marine ecosystems—both temperate and tropical—are making adaptive management more important than ever before. Our increased understanding of the impacts and responses of marine ecosystems to climate change provides a focus for “no-regrets” adaptations that can be implemented now and refined as knowledge improves.

  11. Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

    2013-01-01

    The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

  12. Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsheng Zhao

    Full Text Available The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN, a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

  13. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

  14. Final Technical Report: Effects of Changing Water and Nitrogen Inputs on a Mojave Desert Ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Stanley, D.; Nowak, Robert S.; Fenstermaker, Lynn, F.; Young, Michael,H.

    2007-11-30

    In order to anticipate the effects of global change on ecosystem function, it is essential that predictive relationships be established linking ecosystem function to global change scenarios. The Mojave Desert is of considerable interest with respect to global change. It contains the driest habitats in North America, and thus most closely approximates the world’s great arid deserts. In order to examine the effects of climate and land use changes, in 2001 we established a long-term manipulative global change experiment, called the Mojave Global Change Facility. Manipulations in this study include the potential effects of (1) increased summer rainfall (75 mm over three discrete 25 mm events), (2) increased nitrogen deposition (10 and 40 kg ha-1), and (3) the disturbance of biological N-fixing crusts . Questions addressed under this grant shared the common hypothesis that plant and ecosystem performance will positively respond to the augmentation of the most limiting resources to plant growth in the Mojave Desert, e.g., water and nitrogen. Specific hypotheses include (1) increased summer rainfall will significantly increase plant production through an alleviation of moisture stress in the dry summer months, (2) N-deposition will increase plant production in this N-limited system, particularly in wet years or in concert with added summer rain, and (3) biological crust disturbance will gradually decrease bio-available N, with concomitant long-term reductions in photosynthesis and ANPP. Individual plant and ecosystem responses to global change may be regulated by biogeochemical processes and natural weather variability, and changes in plant and ecosystem processes may occur rapidly, may occur only after a time lag, or may not occur at all. During the first PER grant period, we observed changes in plant and ecosystem processes that would fall under each of these time-response intervals: plant and ecosystem processes responded rapidly to added summer rain, whereas most

  15. Changes in Ecosystem Services and related Livelihoods in the Mekong Delta: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebesvari, Z.; Renaud, F. G.

    2014-12-01

    The Mekong Delta (Vietnam) is highly vulnerable to the many impacts of global environmental change as well as to the accelerating anthropogenic changes in the catchment and in the delta itself. Today the delta is an agricultural landscape controlled by engineering structures such as channels, dykes, embankments, and sluice gates. These structures have been constructed gradually over the last 200 years mainly for irrigation and flood control in the upper part of the delta and to control saline intrusion in the coastal areas. Recent changes in the hydrology mainly driven by upstream hydropower development on the mainstream and the tributaries of the Mekong will likely have far reaching impacts on the delta´s social-ecological systems through changes in e.g. sedimentation processes, nutrient transport as well as the health of aquatic ecosystems. Further threats to the delta include sea level rise and an increase in seasonal rainfall variability leading to an increase in flood variability. These changes affect the lives of millions of low-income inhabitants who depend on the ecosystem services provided by the Mekong for their livelihoods and sustenance. Since the changes in ecosystem service provision are occurring relatively fast while the resource dependency of the delta population is very high, adaptation becomes a challenge. An assessment of livelihood dependencies on ecosystem services requires an understanding of ecosystem services affected by different drivers of change, as well as of the types of livelihoods likely to be jeopardized as a result of these changes. We will present main ecosystem services supporting specific livelihoods, discuss how they are threatened, and analyse the merits of potential solutions. Options based solely on grey infrastructure might be problematic on the long term while an integration of ecosystem based solution such as a (re)adaptation of agricultural production systems to floods in the upper delta might be a more sustainable

  16. Challenges for Ecosystem Services Provided by Coral Reefs In the Face of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, R. K.; Elliff, C. I.

    2014-12-01

    Coral reefs provide many ecosystem services of which coastal populations are especially dependent upon, both in cases of extreme events and in daily life. However, adaptation to climate change is still relatively unknown territory regarding the ecosystem services provided by coastal environments, such as coral reefs. Management strategies usually consider climate change as a distant issue and rarely include ecosystem services in decision-making. Coral reefs are among the most vulnerable environments to climate change, considering the impact that increased ocean temperature and acidity have on the organisms that compose this ecosystem. If no actions are taken, the most likely scenario to occur will be of extreme decline in the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. Loss of biodiversity due to the pressures of ocean warming and acidification will lead to increased price of seafood products, negative impact on food security, and ecological imbalances. Also, sea-level rise and fragile structures due to carbonate dissolution will increase vulnerability to storms, which can lead to shoreline erosion and ultimately threaten coastal communities. Both these conditions will undoubtedly affect recreation and tourism, which are often the most important use values in the case of coral reef systems. Adaptation strategies to climate change must take on an ecosystem-based approach with continuous monitoring programs, so that multiple ecosystem services are considered and not only retrospective trends are analyzed. Brazilian coral reefs have been monitored on a regular basis since 2000 and, considering that these marginal coral reefs of the eastern Atlantic are naturally under stressful conditions (e.g. high sedimentation rates), inshore reefs of Brazil, such as those in Tinharé-Boipeba, have shown lower vitality rates due to greater impacts from the proximity to the coastal area (e.g. pollution, overfishing, sediment run-off). This chronic negative impact must be addressed

  17. Ecosystem services and drivers of change in Nyando floodplain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Papyrus wetlands in East Africa play a vital role in supporting livelihoods of people living around them. Although, subject to natural fluctuations and threats by anthropogenic activities, little is known about historical changes in wetland functions and services, or their present status. We focused on Nyando wetland on the ...

  18. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  19. Disruptive change and the reconfiguration of innovation ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dedehayir, Ozgur; Ortt, J.R.; Seppänen, Marko

    2017-01-01

    This conceptual paper extends the traditional view of disruptive change, which considers the effects of rivalry between an incumbent and new entrant firm, by examining the impact of disruption upon the ‘innovation ecosystem’ in its entirety – the group of organisations that collaborate in

  20. Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems in Africa: Vulnerability and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Africa, while some countries are classified as water scarce due to successive back to back drought years having devastating effects on ground water quality, others in the coastal zones, particularly gulf of Guinea where the Niger Delta is located, could be inundated due to climate change induced sea-level rise.

  1. Safeguarding water availability for food and ecosystems under global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pastor, Amandine V.

    2017-01-01

    In a context of future population increase and intensification of water cycle by climate change, water demand for irrigation is projected to double. However, freshwater resources have been degraded the last decades especially in rivers via fragmentation, dam contraction and pollution. Flow

  2. Long-Term Soil Chemistry Changes in Aggrading Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer D. Knoepp; Wayne T. Swank

    1994-01-01

    Assessing potential long-term forest productivity requires identification of the processes regulating chemical changes in forest soils. We resampled the litter layer and upper two mineral soil horizons, A and AB/BA, in two aggrading southern Appalachian watersheds 20 yr after an earlier sampling. Soils from a mixed-hardwood watershed exhibited a small but significant...

  3. Ecosystem based climate change adaptation for Essenvelt, Middelburg, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, W.; Jacobs, C.M.J.; Hattum, van Tim; Lategan, L.G.; Cilliers, E.J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is an internationally recognised phenomenon generally held accountable for the increasing magnitude of extremes in both climatic events and temperature. With increasing urbanization and the concentration of socio-economic activities in urban areas, the challenge to contend with

  4. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  5. Forest ecosystems and the global climatic change. Background and need to act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellmann, K.; Grassl, H.; Kaiser, M.; Kuerzinger, J.; Lindner, M.; Mueller-Kraenner, S.; Schmidt, R.; Schuett, P.; Sperber, G.

    1994-01-01

    The consequences of the climatic change and of the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer are of global significance and can only be controlled through worldwide measures. Mainly fossil fuels which cover most of our energy demand, industrial production, traffic, industrial intensive agriculture, and deforestation are responsible for trace gases which cause the greenhouse effect. The possible effects of the expected climatic change are discussed, and suitable political, social and silvicultural approaches to the maintenance of stable forest ecosystems are pointed out. Emphasis is placed on forestry and on ecosystems research in Central Europe. (MG) [de

  6. HUMAN-INDUCED CHANGES IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE PETROŞANI DEPRESSION (SOUTHERN CARPATHIANS, ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDRA COSTACHE

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the changes in ecosystem services in the most important coal field from the Southern Carpathians (Romania. The time horizon considered is the interval 1950-2010, characterized by two major processes: intensive development of the mining industry (1950-1989 and subsequent restructuring of mining, with significant consequences since 1996. Socio-economic phenomena associated with these two stages in the evolution of the region have generated major changes in ecosystem services, leading to increased human vulnerability, both to extreme events (natural hazards and pressure from economic factors.

  7. Drought resistance across California ecosystems: Evaluating changes in carbon dynamics using satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Sparkle; Tulbure, Mirela; Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Assal, Timothy J.; Bremer, Leah; Drucker, Debora; Hillis, Vicken; Varela, Sara; Goulden, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Drought is a global issue that is exacerbated by climate change and increasing anthropogenic water demands. The recent occurrence of drought in California provides an important opportunity to examine drought response across ecosystem classes (forests, shrublands, grasslands, and wetlands), which is essential to understand how climate influences ecosystem structure and function. We quantified ecosystem resistance to drought by comparing changes in satellite-derived estimates of water-use efficiency (WUE = net primary productivity [NPP]/evapotranspiration [ET]) under normal (i.e., baseline) and drought conditions (ΔWUE = WUE2014 − baseline WUE). With this method, areas with increasing WUE under drought conditions are considered more resilient than systems with declining WUE. Baseline WUE varied across California (0.08 to 3.85 g C/mm H2O) and WUE generally increased under severe drought conditions in 2014. Strong correlations between ΔWUE, precipitation, and leaf area index (LAI) indicate that ecosystems with a lower average LAI (i.e., grasslands) also had greater C-uptake rates when water was limiting and higher rates of carbon-uptake efficiency (CUE = NPP/LAI) under drought conditions. We also found that systems with a baseline WUE ≤ 0.4 exhibited a decline in WUE under drought conditions, suggesting that a baseline WUE ≤ 0.4 might be indicative of low drought resistance. Drought severity, precipitation, and WUE were identified as important drivers of shifts in ecosystem classes over the study period. These findings have important implications for understanding climate change effects on primary productivity and C sequestration across ecosystems and how this may influence ecosystem resistance in the future.

  8. Variations of Ecosystem Service Value in Response to Land-Use Change in the Kashgar Region, Northwest China

    OpenAIRE

    Aynur Mamat; Ümüt Halik; Aihemaitijiang Rouzi

    2018-01-01

    Increasing anthropogenic activities have significantly altered ecosystems in arid oasis regions. Estimating the impact on a wide range of ecosystem services is important for decision making and the sustainable development of these regions. This study analyzed time-series Landsat data to determine the influences of oasis land-use changes on the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region in Northwest China. The following results were found. The total value of the ecosystem services in the Kashgar...

  9. Socio-hydrological resilience of an arid aquifer system, subject to changing climate and inadequate agricultural management: A case study from the Valley of Santo Domingo, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurl, Jobst; Gámez, Alba E.; Ivanova, Antonina; Imaz Lamadrid, Miguel A.; Hernández-Morales, Pablo

    2018-04-01

    Mismanagement has caused the overexploitation of one third of the major aquifers in Mexico, mainly due to excessive water extraction for agricultural irrigation. Santo Domingo (Baja California Sur, in northern Mexico, where agriculture absorbs nearly 80% of water) is the only aquifer in the Mexico where, after a period of overexploitation, equality between extraction and recharge rates was achieved, although this has not meant the securement of long-term water availability. This paper offers an analysis of hydrological resilience of a water-limited arid ecosystem under future extraction scenarios and changing climate conditions. A regional groundwater flow model is proposed using MODFLOW software. Then, different indicators were modeled as outcomes of coupled human-water systems to predict water trajectories under different human impacts. The aim was to recognize water insecurity scenarios and define appropriate actions to a more sustainable use of this scarce resource in the region. Thus, although runoff derived from extreme floods may favor infiltration, the involvement of local stakeholders and decision makers to reverse the adverse impacts of current water management and climate change is imperative if water availability and better quality are to be secured.

  10. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C. [ed.; Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Llorens Guash, L.; Williams, D.; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3 deg. C increase in temperature with more vigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods in the coming 100 years. The consequence of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate change and thereby to improve the basis for the international negotiations and political decisions to avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving 6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project investigates the potential effects of warming and drought on heath and moorland ecosystems at four European sites. The ecosystems are manipulated at field scale by reducing the heat loss at night by IR-reflective curtains and by removing the precipitation during a 2 month period in the summer. The effects of these manipulations on the plants and the soil are studied. This report describes the technique used to apply the climate change at field scale and presents some preliminary results after the first growing season. EU and the participating institutions fund CLIMOOR. (au)

  11. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2016-01-19

    Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

  12. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

  13. 77 FR 3152 - New Mexico: Final Authorization of State-Initiated Changes and Incorporation-by-Reference of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-23

    ... relations, Penalties, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Water pollution control, Water supply... Mexico: Final Authorization of State-Initiated Changes and Incorporation-by-Reference of State Hazardous.... SUMMARY: During a review of New Mexico's regulations, the EPA identified a variety of State-initiated...

  14. Estimating ecosystem carbon change in the Conterminous United States based on 40 years of land-use change and disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and

  15. Climate Change and River Ecosystems: Protection and Adaptation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Margaret A.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Poff, N. Leroy; Postel, Sandra L.; Richter, Brian; Warner, Richard

    2009-12-01

    Rivers provide a special suite of goods and services valued highly by the public that are inextricably linked to their flow dynamics and the interaction of flow with the landscape. Yet most rivers are within watersheds that are stressed to some extent by human activities including development, dams, or extractive uses. Climate change will add to and magnify risks that are already present through its potential to alter rainfall, temperature, runoff patterns, and to disrupt biological communities and sever ecological linkages. We provide an overview of the predicted impacts based on published studies to date, discuss both reactive and proactive management responses, and outline six categories of management actions that will contribute substantially to the protection of valuable river assets. To be effective, management must be place-based focusing on local watershed scales that are most relevant to management scales. The first priority should be enhancing environmental monitoring of changes and river responses coupled with the development of local scenario-building exercises that take land use and water use into account. Protection of a greater number of rivers and riparian corridors is essential, as is conjunctive groundwater/surface water management. This will require collaborations among multiple partners in the respective river basins and wise land use planning to minimize additional development in watersheds with valued rivers. Ensuring environmental flows by purchasing or leasing water rights and/or altering reservoir release patterns will be needed for many rivers. Implementing restoration projects proactively can be used to protect existing resources so that expensive reactive restoration to repair damage associated with a changing climate is minimized. Special attention should be given to diversifying and replicating habitats of special importance and to monitoring populations at high risk or of special value so that management interventions can occur if the

  16. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

  17. Ecosystem services, land-cover change, and stakeholders: finding a sustainable foothold for a semiarid biodiversity hotspot

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Reyers, B

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available -cover change involves changes in the human management of ecosystems (e.g., settlement, cultivation, and grazing) that alter the biogeochemical cycles, climate, and hydrology of an ecosystem. It also drives biodiversity loss through habitat fragmentation... and Frank 2006, Li et al. 2007). Case studies and simulations of land-cover change have also been used to examine the effects on single ecosystem services or processes (e.g., nitrogen levels (Turner et al. 2003), pollination (Priess et al. 2007...

  18. Minimizing impacts of land use change on ecosystem services using multi-criteria heuristic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Arturo A; Fournier, Eric; Fox, Jessica

    2015-06-01

    Development of natural landscapes to support human activities impacts the capacity of the landscape to provide ecosystem services. Typically, several ecosystem services are impacted at a single development site and various footprint scenarios are possible, thus a multi-criteria analysis is needed. Restoration potential should also be considered for the area surrounding the permanent impact site. The primary objective of this research was to develop a heuristic approach to analyze multiple criteria (e.g. impacts to various ecosystem services) in a spatial configuration with many potential development sites. The approach was to: (1) quantify the magnitude of terrestrial ecosystem service (biodiversity, carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment retention, and pollination) impacts associated with a suite of land use change scenarios using the InVEST model; (2) normalize results across categories of ecosystem services to allow cross-service comparison; (3) apply the multi-criteria heuristic algorithm to select sites with the least impact to ecosystem services, including a spatial criterion (separation between sites). As a case study, the multi-criteria impact minimization algorithm was applied to InVEST output to select 25 potential development sites out of 204 possible locations (selected by other criteria) within a 24,000 ha property. This study advanced a generally applicable spatial multi-criteria approach for 1) considering many land use footprint scenarios, 2) balancing impact decisions across a suite of ecosystem services, and 3) determining the restoration potential of ecosystem services after impacts. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Climate change and amphibian diversity patterns in Mexico

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia M.; Rodríguez, Pilar; Mora, Franz

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this article is to characterize at fine scale alpha and beta diversity patterns for Mexican amphibians and analyze how these patterns might change under a moderate climate-change scenario, highlighting the overall consequences for amphibian diversity at the country level. We used a geo...

  20. Competing actors in the climate change arena in Mexico: A network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega Díaz, Araceli; Gutiérrez, Erika Casamadrid

    2018-06-01

    This paper analyzes the actors in the climate change arena and their influence in directing Mexico toward policies that decrease greenhouse gas emissions, such as the carbon tax and climate change law. The network analysis of the agreement of these laws and public policies in Mexico is a lesson for any country that is in the process of designing and adopting environmental laws. The research is performed using a network analysis that is derived from interviews with various main actors and a discourse analysis of the media. Results show that actors do not coordinate their efforts-they meet frequently but in different inter-ministerial commissions-and do not enforce the same policies. The actors in the industry have formed strong coalitions against the carbon tax and the General Law on Climate Change, whereas international institutions have formed coalitions that support these policies and laws. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Adaptation of Australia’s Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change: Using Science to Inform Conservation Management

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Johanna E.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2014-01-01

    The challenges that climate change poses for marine ecosystems are already manifesting in impacts at the species, population, and community levels in Australia, particularly in Tasmania and tropical northern Australia. Many species and habitats are already under threat as a result of human activities, and the additional pressure from climate change significantly increases the challenge for marine conservation and management. Climate change impacts are expected to magnify as sea surface temper...

  2. Peatland Bryophytes in a Changing Environment : Ecophysiological Traits and Ecosystem Function

    OpenAIRE

    Granath, Gustaf

    2012-01-01

    Peatlands are peat forming ecosystems in which not fully decomposed plant material builds up the soil. The sequestration of carbon into peat is mainly associated with the bryophyte genus Sphagnum (peat mosses), which dominate and literally form most peatlands. The responses of Sphagnum to environmental change help us to understand peatland development and function and to predict future changes in a rapidly changing world. In this thesis, the overarching aim was to use ecophysiological traits ...

  3. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  4. Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

    2012-01-01

    Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

  5. Changes in the forest ecosystems in areas impacted by aridization in south-western Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Pravalie, Remus; Sîrodoev, Igor; Peptenatu, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Background In the past few decades, global climate change has accentuated the intensification of aridization in South-Western Romania, with direct and indirect consequences on the quality of forest ecosystems. In addition to qualitative deterioration, the quantitative changes brought about by intensive anthropic deforestation have created the conditions for a decline in the size of forest areas on vast tracts of land. The paper aims to analyze the qualitative and quantitative changes in the f...

  6. Lake Michigan offshore ecosystem structure and food web changes from 1987 to 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Mark W.; Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystems undergo dynamic changes owing to species invasions, fisheries management decisions, landscape modifications, and nutrient inputs. At Lake Michigan, new invaders (e.g., dreissenid mussels (Dreissena spp.), spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), round goby (Neogobius melanostomus)) have proliferated and altered energy transfer pathways, while nutrient concentrations and stocking rates to support fisheries have changed. We developed an ecosystem model to describe food web structure in 1987 and ran simulations through 2008 to evaluate changes in biomass of functional groups, predator consumption, and effects of recently invading species. Keystone functional groups from 1987 were identified as Mysis, burbot (Lota lota), phytoplankton, alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), nonpredatory cladocerans, and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Simulations predicted biomass reductions across all trophic levels and predicted biomasses fit observed trends for most functional groups. The effects of invasive species (e.g., dreissenid grazing) increased across simulation years, but were difficult to disentangle from other changes (e.g., declining offshore nutrient concentrations). In total, our model effectively represented recent changes to the Lake Michigan ecosystem and provides an ecosystem-based tool for exploring future resource management scenarios.

  7. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  8. Major impacts of climate change on deep-sea benthic ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew K. Sweetman

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The deep sea encompasses the largest ecosystems on Earth. Although poorly known, deep seafloor ecosystems provide services that are vitally important to the entire ocean and biosphere. Rising atmospheric greenhouse gases are bringing about significant changes in the environmental properties of the ocean realm in terms of water column oxygenation, temperature, pH and food supply, with concomitant impacts on deep-sea ecosystems. Projections suggest that abyssal (3000–6000 m ocean temperatures could increase by 1°C over the next 84 years, while abyssal seafloor habitats under areas of deep-water formation may experience reductions in water column oxygen concentrations by as much as 0.03 mL L–1 by 2100. Bathyal depths (200–3000 m worldwide will undergo the most significant reductions in pH in all oceans by the year 2100 (0.29 to 0.37 pH units. O2 concentrations will also decline in the bathyal NE Pacific and Southern Oceans, with losses up to 3.7% or more, especially at intermediate depths. Another important environmental parameter, the flux of particulate organic matter to the seafloor, is likely to decline significantly in most oceans, most notably in the abyssal and bathyal Indian Ocean where it is predicted to decrease by 40–55% by the end of the century. Unfortunately, how these major changes will affect deep-seafloor ecosystems is, in some cases, very poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of the impacts of these changing environmental parameters on deep-seafloor ecosystems that will most likely be seen by 2100 in continental margin, abyssal and polar settings. We also consider how these changes may combine with other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fishing, mineral mining, oil and gas extraction to further impact deep-seafloor ecosystems and discuss the possible societal implications.

  9. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  10. Climate change and its impact on water infrastructure: the case of Alcala de Henares (Spain) and Mexico City (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naranjo, M.; Tortajada, C.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change and its possible impacts on precipitation are still a matter of controversy due to lack of data as well as models which are considered reliable. Even though the science of climate change has advanced significantly in recent years, many uncertainties still prevail, ranging from reliable prediction of extreme river flow events to downscaling of rainfall to smaller planning areas. That is, present knowledge is still insufficient to understand and accurately predict how global changes, climate change one of them, may affect precipitation and streamflows over specific geographical units. In terms of planning and investment in urban areas, where more than 50 percent of the population live at present, freshwater supply and flood risk management have to be considered on long-term basis. This includes development of water infrastructure for drinking water supply and drainage as well as flood control which responds to the needs of the growing populations and their economies. Impacts of climate change are slow over time and take place over thousands of years. However, their study is relatively recent, mostly in terms of impacts on the hydrological cycle and therefore in terms of run-off. In the case of urban centres, the rationale is that governments will have to adapt the water infrastructure according to the expected changes and thus have to plan for them. For example, in the case of Mexico City, the way the drainage system was designed 100 years ago is very different from the way it would be done at present and the way it would be planned in about 50 years time. In the case of the city of Alcalá de Henares in the region of Madrid, the analysis of precipitations has shown a slight tendency towards a wet period from the decade of the 60´s. Due to this tendency, the calculations for the design of water infrastructures have remained virtually unchanged. In the case of this specific city, there is no indication that there will be dramatic or rapid changes in

  11. Ecosystem Service Value Assessment and Contribution Factor Analysis of Land Use Change in Miyun County, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Zhang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Unreasonable land use planning can reduce ecosystem service value and result in unsustainable land use. In this paper, the changes of ecosystem service value were investigated by using the GIS and dynamic simulation model of land use in Miyun of Beijing, China, based on the land use at four time points including 1991, 2006, 2021 and one improved scenario, respectively. The results showed the total ecosystem service value of Miyun was about 2968.34 million Yuan in 1991, 3304.72 million Yuan in 2006, 3106.48 million Yuan in 2021, and 3759.77 million Yuan in the improved scenario. In terms of ecosystem service function, the functions of water supply and soil formation and retention accounted for the largest proportion, which were 19.99% and 14.58% respectively; whereas the functions of food supply and recreation and culture were only 1.83% and 5.99%, respectively. Coefficients of sensitivity for forest cover, water bodies and arable land were relatively large, which were 0.73, 0.28 and 0.14, respectively. The contribution factors of total ecosystem service value with the land use change during different periods were mainly the unused land to forest cover and arable land, which respectively accounted for more than 63% and 21% of the contribution rate. These results suggested that sustainable land use planning should be undertaken with emphasis on vegetation restoration and protection of water bodies.

  12. Watershed scale impacts of bioenergy, landscape changes, and ecosystem response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubey, Indrajeet; Cibin, Raj; Chiang, Li-Chi

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, high US gasoline prices and national security concerns have prompted a renewed interest in alternative fuel sources to meet increasing energy demands, particularly by the transportation sector. Food and animal feed crops, such as corn and soybean, sugarcane, residue from these crops, and cellulosic perennial crops grown specifically to produce bioenergy (e.g. switchgrass, Miscanthus, mixed grasses), and fast growing trees (e.g. hybrid poplar) are expected to provide the majority of the biofeedstock for energy production. One of the grand challenges in supplying large quantities of grain-based and lignocellulosic materials for the production of biofuels is ensuring that they are produced in environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. Feedstock selection will vary geographically based on regional adaptability, productivity, and reliability. Changes in land use and management practices related to biofeedstock production may have potential impacts on water quantity and quality, sediments, and pesticides and nutrient losses, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. We have made many improvements in the currently available biophysical models (e.g. Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT model) to evaluate sustainability of energy crop production. We have utilized the improved model to evaluate impacts of both annual (e.g. corn) and perennial bioenergy crops (e.g. Miscanthus and switchgrass at) on hydrology and water quality under the following plausible bioenergy crop production scenarios: (1) at highly erodible areas; (2) at agriculturally marginal areas; (3) at pasture areas; (4) crop residue (corn stover) removal; and (5) combinations of above scenarios. Overall results indicated improvement in water quality with introduction of perennial energy crops. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced under energy crop production scenarios and ranged between 0.3% and 5% across scenarios. Erosion and sediment

  13. Re-introducing environmental change drivers in biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Laender, Frederik; Rohr, Jason R.; Ashauer, Roman; Baird, Donald J.; Berger, Uta; Eisenhauer, Nico; Grimm, Volker; Hommen, Udo; Maltby, Lorraine; Meliàn, Carlos J.; Pomati, Francesco; Roessink, Ivo; Radchuk, Viktoriia; Van den Brink, Paul J.

    2016-01-01

    For the past 20 years, research on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (B-EF) has only implicitly considered the underlying role of environmental change. We illustrate that explicitly re-introducing environmental change drivers in B-EF research is needed to predict the functioning of ecosystems facing changes in biodiversity. Next, we show how this reintroduction improves experimental control over community composition and structure, which helps to obtain mechanistic insight about how multiple aspects of biodiversity relate to function, and how biodiversity and function relate in food-webs. We also highlight challenges for the proposed re-introduction, and suggest analyses and experiments to better understand how random biodiversity changes, as studied by classic approaches in B-EF research, contribute to the shifts in function that follow environmental change. PMID:27742415

  14. Small Mammals as Indicators of Climate, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Morse, Nathan R.; Flamme, M.J.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

    2017-01-01

    Climate is a driving evolutionary force for biodiversity in high-latitude Alaska. This region is complex and dynamic with high annual variation in temperature and light. Through deeper time, Alaska has experienced major climate extremes over much longer periodicity. For example, the Quaternary Period (the last ~2.5 million years), commonly known as the Ice Age, was punctuated by more than 20 major glacial-interglacial cycles. During glacial phases, water was locked up in ice sheets that covered much of North America, and the resulting lower sea levels exposed a land connection between Alaska and Siberia, a combined region known as Beringia (Figure 1). This isthmus provided vast expanses of land for species to inhabit, provided they could withstand potentially harsh polar conditions. Each extended glacial phase periodically transitioned into a shorter interglacial warm phase. These climate reversals melted continental ice sheets to expose corridors for reinvasion of terrestrial species, particularly those associated with forested habitats further south. Those species that survived at northern latitudes through repeated glacial-interglacial cycles formed the Arctic tundra communities that persist today. At present, Alaska supports diverse communities associated with both tundra and forests (Figure 2). These communities often interact with one another across latitudinal and elevational gradients, with tundra species generally found further north or higher in elevation. Alaska’s climate is continuing to change today, strongly influencing local environments and the distribution and dynamics of wildlife species.

  15. Climate Extremes and Land-Use Change: Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahn, Michael; Erb, Karlheinz; Hasibeder, Roland; Mayr, Stefan; Niedertscheider, Maria; Oberhuber, Walter; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich; Viovy, Nicolas; Wieser, Gerhard

    2016-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, in particular droughts and heatwaves, have significant impacts on ecosystem carbon and water cycles and a range of related ecosystem services. It is expected that in the coming decades the return intervals and severities of extreme droughts will increase substantially and may result in the passing of thresholds of ecosystem functioning, potentially causing legacy effects, which are so far poorly understood. Observational evidence suggests that different land cover types (forest, grassland) are differently influenced by extreme drought, but there is a lack of knowledge whether and how future, increasingly severe climate extremes will affect their concurrent and lagged responses, as well as land-use decisions determining future shifts in land cover. The ClimLUC project aims to understand how extreme summer drought affects carbon and water dynamics of mountain ecosystems under different land uses, and to analyse implications for ecosystem service provisioning. Overall, we hypothesize that land-use change alters the effects of extreme summer drought on ecosystem processes and the related services, grassland responding more rapidly and strongly but being more resilient to extreme drought than forest. To address the aims and hypotheses, we will 1) test experimentally how (a) a managed, (b) an abandoned mountain grassland and (c) an adjacent subalpine forest respond to a progressive extreme drought and will analyse threshold responses of carbon and water dynamics and their implications for ecosystem services (timber and fodder production, carbon sequestration, water provisioning); 2) quantify carry-over effects of the extreme event on ecosystem processes and services; 3) project and attribute future carbon and water cycle responses to extreme drought and related socio-economic changes, based on a process-based dynamic general vegetation model; 4) analyse the interrelation between land-use changes and the occurrence and severity of past and future

  16. Interactive effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Aliny P F; Srivastava, Diane S; Marino, Nicholas A C; MacDonald, A Andrew M; Figueiredo-Barros, Marcos Paulo; Farjalla, Vinicius F

    2018-05-01

    Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to simultaneously affect ecosystems, however research on how each driver mediates the effect of the other has been limited in scope. The multiple stressor framework emphasizes non-additive effects, but biodiversity may also buffer the effects of climate change, and climate change may alter which mechanisms underlie biodiversity-function relationships. Here, we performed an experiment using tank bromeliad ecosystems to test the various ways that rainfall changes and litter diversity may jointly determine ecological processes. Litter diversity and rainfall changes interactively affected multiple functions, but how depends on the process measured. High litter diversity buffered the effects of altered rainfall on detritivore communities, evidence of insurance against impacts of climate change. Altered rainfall affected the mechanisms by which litter diversity influenced decomposition, reducing the importance of complementary attributes of species (complementarity effects), and resulting in an increasing dependence on the maintenance of specific species (dominance effects). Finally, altered rainfall conditions prevented litter diversity from fueling methanogenesis, because such changes in rainfall reduced microbial activity by 58%. Together, these results demonstrate that the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystems cannot be understood in isolation and interactions between these stressors can be multifaceted. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Predicting effects of climate and land use change on human well-being via changes in ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landuse and climate change have affected biological systems in many parts of the world, and are projected to further adversely affect associated ecosystem goods and services, including provisioning of clean air, clean water, food, and biodiversity. Such adverse effects on ecosyst...

  18. Historical changes of the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem: modelling the role and impact of primary productivity and fisheries changes over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piroddi, Chiara; Coll, Marta; Liquete, Camino; Macias, Diego; Greer, Krista; Buszowski, Joe; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Danovaro, Roberto; Christensen, Villy

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean Sea has been defined “under siege” because of intense pressures from multiple human activities; yet there is still insufficient information on the cumulative impact of these stressors on the ecosystem and its resources. We evaluate how the historical (1950-2011) trends of various ecosystems groups/species have been impacted by changes in primary productivity (PP) combined with fishing pressure. We investigate the whole Mediterranean Sea using a food web modelling approach. Results indicate that both changes in PP and fishing pressure played an important role in driving species dynamics. Yet, PP was the strongest driver upon the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem. This highlights the importance of bottom-up processes in controlling the biological characteristics of the region. We observe a reduction in abundance of important fish species (~34%, including commercial and non-commercial) and top predators (~41%), and increases of the organisms at the bottom of the food web (~23%). Ecological indicators, such as community biomass, trophic levels, catch and diversity indicators, reflect such changes and show overall ecosystem degradation over time. Since climate change and fishing pressure are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean Sea, this study constitutes a baseline reference for stepping forward in assessing the future management of the basin.

  19. Climate change adaptation and mitigation options a guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

    2014-01-01

    The rapid pace of climate change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems present a pressing need for better scientific understanding and the development of new science-management partnerships. Understanding the effects of stressors and disturbances (including climatic variability), and developing and testing science-based management options to deal...

  20. Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johnson, N.C.; Angelard, C.; Sanders, I.R.; Kiers, E.T.

    2013-01-01

    Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore

  1. Integrating ecosystem services and climate change responses in coastal wetlands development plans for Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sarwar, M.H.; Hein, L.G.; Rip, F.I.; Dearing, J.A.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the

  2. Impacts of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems - emerging research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elena Paoletti; Bytnerowicz; Chris Andersen; Algirdas Augustaitis; Marco Ferretti; Nancy Grulke; Madeleine S. Gunthardt-goerg; John Innes; Dale Johnson; Dave Karnosky; Jessada Luangjame; Rainer Matyssek; Steven McNulty; Gerhard Muller-Starck; Robert Musselman; Kevin Percy

    2007-01-01

    Outcomes from the 22nd meeting for Specialists in Air Pollution Effects on Forest Ecosystems "Forests under Anthropogenic Pressure – Effects of Air Pollution, Climate Change and Urban Development", September 10–16, 2006, Riverside, CA, are summarized. Tropospheric or ground-level ozone (O3) is still the phytotoxic...

  3. Natural areas as a basis for assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret H. Massie; Todd M. Wilson; Anita T. Morzillo; Emilie B. Henderson

    2016-01-01

    There are more than 580 natural areas in Oregon and Washington managed by 20 federal, state, local, and private agencies and organizations. This natural areas network is unparalleled in its representation of the diverse ecosystems found in the Pacific Northwest, and could prove useful for monitoring long-term ecological responses to climate change. Our objectives were...

  4. Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

  5. Assessing and comparing risk to climate changes among forested locations: implications for ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha M. Prasad; Sakthi. Subburayalu

    2014-01-01

    Forests provide key ecosystem services (ES) and the extent to which the ES are realized varies spatially, with forest composition and cultural context, and in breadth, depending on the dominant tree species inhabiting an area. We address the question of how climate change may impact ES within the temperate and diverse forests of the eastern United States. We quantify...

  6. A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

  7. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): evidence of a recent regime shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomczak, Maciej Tomasz; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik

    2012-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and...... further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance......An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west......), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses...

  8. Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Sicard; A. Augustaitis; S. Belyazid; C. Calfapietra; A. De Marco; Mark E. Fenn; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Nancy Grulke; S. He; R. Matyssek; Y. Serengil; G. Wieser; E. Paoletti

    2016-01-01

    Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii)...

  9. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marianne V. Moore; Michael L. Pace; John R. Mather; [and others; [Editor’s note: Patricia A. Flebbe is the SRS co-author for this publication.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests, and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and...

  10. Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, Y.; Yuan, J.; Lu, X.; Su, Chao; Zhang, Y.; Wang, C.; Cao, X.; Li, Q.; Su, Jilan; Ittekkot, Venugopalan; Garbutt, Richard Angus; Bush, S.R.; Fletcher, Stephen; Wagey, Tonny; Kachur, Anatolii; Sweijd, Neville

    2018-01-01

    Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients,

  11. The combined effects of acidification and hypoxia on pH and aragonite saturation in the coastal waters of the California current ecosystem and the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feely, Richard A.; Okazaki, Remy R.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Bednaršek, Nina; Alin, Simone R.; Byrne, Robert H.; Fassbender, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    horizon is currently above the hypoxic zone in the West Coast. With increasing atmospheric CO2, it is expected to shoal up close to surface waters under the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 in West Coast waters, while aragonite saturation state will exhibit steeper gradients in the Gulf of Mexico. This study demonstrates how different biological thresholds (e.g., hypoxia, CaCO3 undersaturation, hypercapnia) will vary asymmetrically because of local initial conditions that are affected differently with increasing atmospheric CO2. The direction of change in amplitude of hypercapnia will be similar in both ecosystems, exposing both biological communities from the West Coast and Gulf of Mexico to intensification of stressful conditions. However, the region of lower Revelle factors (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico), currently provides an adequate refuge habitat that might no longer be the case under the most severe RCP scenarios.

  12. Collective Action in the Management of a Tropical Dry Forest Ecosystem: Effects of Mexico's Property Rights Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Natalia Mariel; Castillo, Alicia

    2013-04-01

    Dilemmas of natural resources governance have been a central concern for scholars, policy makers, and users. Major debates occur over the implications of property rights for common resources management. After the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), land was distributed mainly as ejidos conceived as a hereditary but unalienable collective form of property. In 1992, a new Agrarian Law was decreed that allows individual ownership by removing various restrictions over the transfer of land. Scholars have examined the reform mainly focusing on land-tenure changes and environmental fragmentation. This study examines how the new ownership regime is affecting collective decision-making in ejidos located in a tropical dry forest (TDF) ecosystem. Information on decision-making processes before and after the 1992 reform was gathered through 52 interviews conducted in four ejidos selected along a gradient including agricultural, cattle-raising, and TDF use. The new individualized land property system reduced collective action in ejidos but did not trigger it. Collective action responses to the 1992 reform were buffered by self-organization each ejido already had. Heterogeneous users who shared a short history and showed little understanding of TDF and low dependence on its resources seemed to explain why ejidos have not been able to share a sense of community that would shape the construction of institutions for the collective management of forest resources. However, when a resource is scarce and highly valuable such as water the same users showed capacities for undertaking costly co-operative activities.

  13. Linking above and belowground responses to global change at community and ecosystem scales.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antoninka, Anita [Northern Arizona University; Wolf, Julie [Northern Arizona University; Bowker, Matt [Northern Arizona University; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL; JohnsonPhD, Dr Nancy C [Northern Arizona University

    2009-01-01

    Cryptic belowground organisms are difficult to observe and their responses to global changes are not well understood. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that interactions among above- and belowground communities may mediate ecosystem responses to global change. We used grassland mesocosms to manipulate the abundance of one important group of soil organisms, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, and to study community and ecosystem responses to CO2 and N enrichment. After two growing seasons, biomass responses of plant communities were recorded, and soil community responses were measured using microscopy, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) and community-level physiological profiles (CLPP). Ecosystem responses were examined by measuring net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration, total soil organic matter (SOM), and extractable mineral N. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the causal relationships among treatments and response variables. We found that while CO2 and N tended to directly impact ecosystem functions (evapotranspiration and NPP, respectively), AM fungi indirectly impacted ecosystem functions by strongly influencing the composition of plant and soil communities. For example, the presence of AM fungi had a strong influence on other root and soil fungi and soil bacteria. We found that the mycotrophic status of the dominant plant species in the mesocosms determined whether the presence of AM fungi increased or decreased NPP. Mycotrophic grasses dominated the mesocosm communities during the first growing season, and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the highest NPP. In contrast, non-mycotrophic forbs were dominant during the second growing season and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the lowest NPP. The composition of the plant community strongly influenced soil N; and the composition of the soil organisms strongly influenced SOM accumulation in the mesocosms. These results show how linkages between above- and belowground communities

  14. Coastal change and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Part I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR has identified the input of nutrient-rich water from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB as the prime cause of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the prime means for its control. A Watershed Nutrient Task Force was formed to solve the hypoxia problem by managing the MARB catchment. However, the hypoxic zone is also experiencing massive physical, hydrological, chemical and biological changes associated with an immense river-switching and delta-building event that occurs here about once a millennium. Coastal change induced hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico prior to European settlement. It is recommended that for further understanding and control of Gulf hypoxia the Watershed Nutrient Task Force adopt a truly holistic environmental approach which includes the full effects of this highly dynamic coastal area.

  15. Impacts of climate change and sea level rise to Danish near shore ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vestergaard, P.

    2001-01-01

    Salt marshes and sand dunes are important types of coastal, terrestrial nature, which like other terrestrial ecosystems will be sensible to the future changes in climate, which have been predicted. Due to the processes acting in their morphogenesis and in the development and composition of their ecosystems, they will not least be influenced by sea level rise. Especially a strong impact of a sea level rise of about 50 cm (midrange of the projected global sea level rise) for the next century can be expected on Danish salt marshes, considering their limited vertical range (50-100 cm). (LN)

  16. Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in High Mountain Areas: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Palomo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available High mountain areas are experiencing some of the earliest and greatest impacts of climate change. However, knowledge on how climate change impacts multiple ecosystem services that benefit different stakeholder groups remains scattered in the literature. This article presents a review of the literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services benefiting local communities and tourists in high mountain areas. Results show a lack of studies focused on the global South, especially where there are tropical glaciers, which are likely to be the first to disappear. Climate change impacts can be classified as impacts on food and feed, water availability, natural hazards regulation, spirituality and cultural identity, aesthetics, and recreation. In turn, climate change impacts on infrastructure and accessibility also affect ecosystem services. Several of these impacts are a direct threat to the lives of mountain peoples, their livelihoods and their culture. Mountain tourism is experiencing abrupt changes too. The magnitude of impacts make it necessary to strengthen measures to adapt to climate change in high mountain areas.

  17. Response of ecosystem services to land use change in Xiamen Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, L.

    2009-12-01

    : Land use change was a major factor affecting ecosystem services. Taken Xiamen Island as an example, by integrating remote sensing data to examine land use patterns from 1950 to 2007, the regional ecosystem services of Xiamen Island were evaluated based on two revised methods aiming to identify the stress effects and mechanisms of land use change on ecosystem services. The results showed that during 1950~2007, in general, Xiamen Island’s land use intensity had been annually rising. The trends of Xiamen Island’s ecosystem services value acquired by two methods were both consistent with decreasing along with the growth of land use intensity. Before 1987, the ecosystem service value of Xiamen Island had increased by 1.07 million yuan, due to the expanding of 12.87 km2 water and wetland. After the establishment of Xiamen special economic zone in 1984, the rapid urbanization has resulted a sharp decline in ecosystem service value, the average annual loss reached by 619,773 yuan after 1987. As the utilization of land reaching saturation and the launching of ecological projects, such as the Xiamen Eastern Sea Comprehensive Improvement Project, it could be predicted that the decreasing trend of ecosystem services value was going to be slowed down in the near future. The first revised method referencing four eco-system services solved the problem of overestimated value caused by the second revised method based on provisioning service alone. By applying the ESV total correction method, the problem of over counting service value by correction made from a single aspect could be solved.Equivalent value per unit area of ecosystem services in China 2007 and revised value by second method Note: The modified coefficient of crop, orchard & forest, wetland and inland water provisioning ESV revised by the second method is 2.858, 2.405, 1.523, 1.843 respectively; for regulating, ultural and supporting ESV, the coefficient is 2.339, 15.339, 2.339 respectively.

  18. Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Christopher [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Mooney, Harold [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Vitousek, Peter [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2015-02-02

    Building on the history and infrastructure of the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment, we conducted experiments to explore the potential for single and combined global changes to stimulate fundamental type changes in ecosystems that start the experiment as California annual grassland. Using a carefully orchestrated set of seedling introductions, followed by careful study and later removal, the grassland was poised to enable two major kinds of transitions that occur in real life and that have major implications for ecosystem structure, function, and services. These are transitions from grassland to shrubland/forest and grassland to thistle patch. The experiment took place in the context of 4 global change factors – warming, elevated CO2, N deposition, and increased precipitation – in a full-factorial array, present as all possible 1, 2, 3, and 4-factor combinations, with each combination replicated 8 times.

  19. Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Bruce K.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Brisco, Brian; Mrnaghan, Kevin; Rover, Jennifer R.; Long, Jordan

    2014-01-01

    A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

  20. The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiabai, Aline; Quiroga, Sonia; Martinez-Juarez, Pablo; Higgins, Sahran; Taylor, Tim

    2018-09-01

    This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiu, Peng; Chai, Fei; Curchitser, Enrique N; Castruccio, Frederic S

    2018-02-12

    Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.

  2. Ecosystem sentinels for climate change? Evidence of wetland cover changes over the last 30 years in the tropical Andes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Dangles

    Full Text Available While the impacts of climate change on individual species and communities have been well documented there is little evidence on climate-mediated changes for entire ecosystems. Pristine alpine environments can provide unique insights into natural, physical and ecological response to climate change yet broad scale and long-term studies on these potential 'ecosystem sentinels' are scarce. We addressed this issue by examining cover changes of 1689 high-elevation wetlands (temporarily or perennial water-saturated grounds in the Bolivian Cordillera Real, a region that has experienced significant warming and glacier melting over the last 30 years. We combined high spatial resolution satellite images from PLEIADES with the long-term images archive from LANDSAT to 1 examine environmental factors (e.g., glacier cover, wetland and watershed size that affected wetland cover changes, and 2 identify wetlands' features that affect their vulnerability (using habitat drying as a proxy in the face of climate change. Over the (1984-2011 period, our data showed an increasing trend in the mean wetland total area and number, mainly related to the appearance of wet grassland patches during the wetter years. Wetland cover also showed high inter-annual variability and their area for a given year was positively correlated to precipitation intensities in the three months prior to the image date. Also, round wetlands located in highly glacierized catchments were less prone to drying, while relatively small wetlands with irregularly shaped contours suffered the highest rates of drying over the last three decades. High Andean wetlands can therefore be considered as ecosystem sentinels for climate change, as they seem sensitive to glacier melting. Beyond the specific focus of this study, our work illustrates how satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem sentinels can help filling the lack of information on the ecological consequences of current and changing climate conditions

  3. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Ecosystem changes in the Neva Estuary (Baltic Sea): natural dynamics or response to anthropogenic impacts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golubkov, Sergey; Alimov, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    The Neva Estuary situated in the eastern Gulf of Finland is one of the largest estuaries of the Baltic Sea with a large conurbation, St. Petersburg, situated on its coast. Eutrophication, alien species and large-scale digging and dumping of bottom sediment are the most prominent anthropogenic impacts on its ecosystem. However, many ecosystem responses, which are traditionally attribute to these impacts, are related to natural dynamics of the ecosystem. Fluctuations in discharge of the Neva River, intrusions of bottom hypoxic waters from the western part of the Gulf of Finland, higher summer temperatures and a shorter period of ice cover are climatic mediated factors inducing adverse changes in its ecosystem from the 1980s onwards. The main ecosystem responses to these factors are 2-3-fold increase of trophic status, deterioration of native zoobenthic communities and establishment of alien species, as well as the many fold decrease of fish catch and the population of ringed seal in the region. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessment of goods and valuation of ecosystem services (AGAVES) San Pedro River Basin, United States and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Darius; Kepner, William; Goodrich, David

    2010-01-01

    A consortium of federal, academic, and nongovernment organization (NGO) partners have established a collaborative research enterprise in the San Pedro River Basin to develop methods, standards, and tools to assess and value ecosystem goods and services. The central premise of ecosystem services research is that human condition is intrinsically linked to the environment. Human health and well-being (including economic prosperity) depend on important supporting, regulating, provisioning, and cultural services that we derive from our surrounding ecosystems. The AGAVES project is intended as a demonstration study for incorporating ecosystem services information into resource management policy and decisionmaking. Accordingly, a nested, multiscale project design has been adopted to address a range of stakeholder information requirements. This design will further facilitate an evaluation of how well methods developed in this project can be transferred to other areas.

  6. Climate change effects on central New Mexico's land use, transportation system and key natural resources : task 1.1 memo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    This report summarizes potential climate change effects on the availability of water, land use, transportation infrastructure, and key natural resources in central New Mexico. This work is being done as part of the Interagency Transportation, Land Us...

  7. Vulnerability to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services of boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Maria; Rankinen, Katri; Aalto, Tuula; Akujärvi, Anu; Nadir Arslan, Ali; Liski, Jari; Markkanen, Tiina; Mäkelä, Annikki; Peltoniemi, Mikko

    2016-04-01

    Boreal forests provide an array of ecosystem services. They regulate climate, and carbon, water and nutrient fluxes, and provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming is projected for the boreal zone, and has already been observed in Finland, which sets these services at risk. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409, 2.9.2013 - 1.9.2017) is a project funded by EU Life programme about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone Applying Innovative Observation and Modeling Techniques. The coordinating beneficiary of the project is the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Associated beneficiaries are the Natural Resources Institute Finland, the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Helsinki. In the MONIMET project, we use state-of-the-art models and new monitoring methods to investigate the impacts of a warming climate on the provision of ecosystem services of boreal forests. This poster presents results on carbon storage in soil and assessment of drought indices, as a preparation for assessing the vulnerability of society to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services. The risk of decreasing provision of ecosystem services depends on the sensitivity of the ecosystem as well as its exposure to climate stress. The vulnerability of society, in turn, depends on the risk of decreasing provision of a certain service in combination with society's demand for that service. In the next phase, we will look for solutions to challenges relating to the quantification of the demand for ecosystem services and differences in spatial extent and resolution of the information on future supply and demand.

  8. The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutt, Julian; Bertler, Nancy; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Buschmann, Alexander; Comiso, Josefino; Hosie, Graham; Isla, Enrique; Schloss, Irene R; Smith, Craig R; Tournadre, Jean; Xavier, José C

    2015-04-01

    A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rustad, Lindsey E.

    2008-01-01

    Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and international policies regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reflects on the nature of current global change experiments, and provides recommendations for a unified multidisciplinary approach to future research in this dynamic field. These recommendations include: (1) better integration between experiments and models, and amongst experimental, monitoring, and space-for-time studies; (2) stable and increased support for long-term studies and multi-factor experiments; (3) explicit inclusion of biodiversity, disturbance, and extreme events in experiments and models; (4) consideration of timing vs intensity of global change factors in experiments and models; (5) evaluation of potential thresholds or ecosystem 'tipping points'; and (6) increased support for model-model and model-experiment comparisons. These recommendations, which reflect discussions within the TERACC international network of global change scientists, will facilitate the unraveling of the complex direct and indirect effects of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and their components

  10. Combined global change effects on ecosystem processesin nine U.S. topographically complex areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Melannie D.; Baron, Jill S.; Ewing, Holly A.; Weathers, Kathleen

    2014-01-01

    Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds in the United States. Net ecosystem production (NEP) increased linearly with increasing N deposition for six out of seven forested watersheds; warming directly increased NEP at only two of these sites. Warming reduced soil organic carbon storage at all sites by increasing heterotrophic respiration. At most sites, warming together with high N deposition increased nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions enough to negate the greenhouse benefit of soil carbon sequestration alone, though there was a net greenhouse gas sink across nearly all sites mainly due to the effect of CO2 fertilization and associated sequestration by plants. Over the simulation period, an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 350 to 600 ppm was the main driver of change in net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration at all forested sites and one of two alpine sites, but an additional increase in CO2 from 600 to 760 ppm produced smaller effects. Warming either increased or decreased net greenhouse gas sequestration, depending on the site. The N contribution to net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration averaged across forest sites was only 5–7 % and was negligible for the alpine. Stream nitrate (NO3−) fluxes increased sharply with N-loading, primarily at three watersheds where initial N deposition values were high relative to terrestrial N uptake capacity. The simulated results displayed fewer synergistic responses to warming, N-loading, and CO2 fertilization than expected. Overall, simulations with DayCent-Chem suggest individual site characteristics and historical patterns of N deposition are important determinants of forest or alpine ecosystem responses to

  11. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  12. Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-01-01

    The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

  13. Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A.; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl; Baker, Andrew; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geórgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David; Grandcourt, Edwin; Hill, Ross; John, David M.; Jones, David A.; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam; Riegl, Bernhard; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Joerg

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/ Persian Gulf (thereafter ‘Gulf’) coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. PMID:23643407

  14. Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

    KAUST Repository

    Feary, David A.

    2013-07-01

    Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter \\'Gulf\\') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

    KAUST Repository

    Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A R; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl L.; Baker, Andrew C.; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geó rgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David Glen; Grandcourt, Edwin Mark; Hill, Ross; John, David Michael; Jones, David Alan; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda M A; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood A.; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam J.; Riegl, Bernhard M.; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles R C; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Jö rg

    2013-01-01

    Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter 'Gulf') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  16. ICES and PICES strategies for coordinating research on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, S.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Barange, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies......The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative...... on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two...

  17. Understanding of Grassland Ecosystems under Climate Change and Economic Development Pressures in the Mongolia Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, J.; Chen, J.; Shan, P.; Pan, X.; Wei, Y.; Wang, M.; Xin, X.

    2011-12-01

    The land use and land cover change, especially in the form of grassland degradation, in the Mongolian Plateau, exhibited a unique spatio-temporal pattern that is a characteristic of a mixed stress from economic development and climate change of the region. The social dimension of the region played a key role in shaping the landscape and land use change, including the cultural clashes with economic development, conflicts between indigenous people and business ventures, and exogenous international influences. Various research projects have been conducted in the region to focus on physical degradation of grasslands and/or on economic development but there is a lack of understanding how the social and economic dimensions interact with grassland ecosystems and changes. In this talk, a synthesis report was made based on the most recent workshop held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, of China, that specifically focused on climate change and grassland ecosystems. The report analyzed the degree of grassland degradation, its climate and social drivers, and coupling nature of economic development and conservation of traditional grassland values. The goal is to fully understand the socio-ecological-economic interactions that together shape the trajectory of the grassland ecosystems in the Mongolia Plateau.

  18. Response of the boreal forest ecosystem to climatic change and its silvicultural implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Karjalainen, T. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry] [and others

    1996-12-31

    During the next 100 years, the mean annual temperature is expected to be 1-6 deg C higher than at present. It is also expected to be accompanied by a lengthening of the thermal growing season and increased precipitation. Consequently, climatic change will increase the uncertainty of the management of forest ecosystems in the future. In this context, this research project aimed to outline the ecological and silvicultural implications of climatic change with regard to (1) how the expected climatic change might modify the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem, and (2) how the silvicultural management of the forest ecosystem should be modified in order to maintain sustainable forest yield under changing climatic conditions. The experimental component of the project concerned first the effect that elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon have on the ontogenetic development of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) and on the subsequent increase in frost damage during winter. The second part of the study looked the effect of elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon on the growth of Scots pine through photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient supply, and changes in crown structure. This experiment was utilised in several subprojects of the overall project

  19. Response of the boreal forest ecosystem to climatic change and its silvicultural implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellomaeki, S; Haenninen, H; Karjalainen, T [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry; and others

    1997-12-31

    During the next 100 years, the mean annual temperature is expected to be 1-6 deg C higher than at present. It is also expected to be accompanied by a lengthening of the thermal growing season and increased precipitation. Consequently, climatic change will increase the uncertainty of the management of forest ecosystems in the future. In this context, this research project aimed to outline the ecological and silvicultural implications of climatic change with regard to (1) how the expected climatic change might modify the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem, and (2) how the silvicultural management of the forest ecosystem should be modified in order to maintain sustainable forest yield under changing climatic conditions. The experimental component of the project concerned first the effect that elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon have on the ontogenetic development of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) and on the subsequent increase in frost damage during winter. The second part of the study looked the effect of elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon on the growth of Scots pine through photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient supply, and changes in crown structure. This experiment was utilised in several subprojects of the overall project

  20. Ecosystem-based management of coastal zones in face of climate change impacts: Challenges and inequalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandino, Gerson; Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

    2018-06-01

    Climate change effects have the potential of affecting both ocean and atmospheric processes. These changes pose serious threats to the millions of people that live by the coast. Thus, the objective of the present review is to discuss how climate change is altering (and will continue to alter) atmospheric and oceanic processes, what are the main implications of these alterations along the coastline, and which are the ecosystem-based management (EBM) strategies that have been proposed and applied to address these issues. While ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasing sea level have been more extensively studied, investigations on the effects of climate change to wind and wave climates are less frequent. Coastal ecosystems and their respective natural resources will respond differently according to location, environmental drivers and coastal processes. EBM strategies have mostly concentrated on improving ecosystem services, which can be used to assist in mitigating climate change effects. The main challenge for developing nations regards gaps in information and scarcity of resources. Thus, for effective management and adaptive EBM strategies to be developed worldwide, information at a local level is greatly needed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinxun; Vogelmann, James E.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Key, Carl H.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, Jing M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Howard, Stephen M.; Bliss, Norman B.; Jiang, Hong

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire

  2. Changes in the forest ecosystems in areas impacted by aridization in south-western Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pravalie, Remus; Sîrodoev, Igor; Peptenatu, Daniel

    2014-01-06

    In the past few decades, global climate change has accentuated the intensification of aridization in South-Western Romania, with direct and indirect consequences on the quality of forest ecosystems. In addition to qualitative deterioration, the quantitative changes brought about by intensive anthropic deforestation have created the conditions for a decline in the size of forest areas on vast tracts of land. The paper aims to analyze the qualitative and quantitative changes in the forest ecosystems in South-Western Romania, changes due to the synergic context of the global climate changes and the anthropic pressures of the past three decades. In order to capture the evolution of aridization in the study area, specific aridization indexes have been calculated, such as the De Martonne index and the UNEP aridity index. 1990 and 2011 satellite images have been used in order to quantify the qualitative changes. The results obtained indicated that, in the past two decades, the quality of the biomass declined as a result of the increase in the climatic aridity conditions (De Martonne si UNEP aridity index, indicating in the last decades, annual values under 15 mm/°C, and under 0.5 mm/mm, that means that the values situated under these thresholds, describe arid and semi-arid climate conditions). Also, the uncontrolled logging across vast surfaces caused the loss of forest ecosystems by 7% in the overall study area, during the last three decades. The severe effects of aridization meant, first of all, a significant decline in the quality of the ecosystem services supplied by forests. In the absence of viable actions to correct the present situation, the extremely undesirable consequences of an ecological and social nature will arise in the near future.

  3. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  4. The nuclear energy like an option in Mexico before the climatic change; La nucleoelectricidad como una opcion en Mexico ante el cambio climatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez M, B.; Puente E, F.; Ortiz O, H. B.; Avila P, P.; Flores C, J., E-mail: beatriz.hernandez@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2014-10-15

    The current energy poverty, the future necessities of energy and the climatic change caused by the global warming, are factors that associates each, manifest with more clarity the unsustainable production way and energy consumption that demands the society in the current life. This work analyzes the nuclear energy generation like an alternative from the environmental view point that ties with the sustainable development and the formulation of energy use models that require the countries at global level. With this purpose were collected and reviewed documented data of the energy resources, current and future energy consumption and the international commitments of Mexico regarding to greenhouse gases reduction. For Mexico two implementation scenarios of nuclear reactors type BWR and A BWR were analyzed, in compliance with the goals and policy development established in the National Strategy of Climatic Change and the National Strategy of Energy; the scenarios were analyzed through the emissions to the air of CO{sub 2}, (main gas of greenhouse effect) which avoids when the energy production is obtained by nuclear reactors instead of consumptions of traditional fuels, such as coal, diesel, natural gas and fuel oil. The obtained results reflect that the avoided emissions contribute from 4.2% until 40% to the national goal that Mexico has committed to the international community through the Convention Marco of the United Nations against the Climatic Change (CMNUCC). These results recommends to the nuclear energy like a sustainable energy solution on specific and current conditions for Mexico. (Author)

  5. Changes in food habits in Puerto Vallarta (Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Ávila

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Changements d’habitudes alimentaires à Puerto Vallarta (Mexique Située sur la côte Pacifique mexicaine, Puerto Vallarta est aujourd’hui une destination touristique réputée. Elle est également une destination gourmet, en raison de la variété et du raffinement de son « offre » gastronomique. Néanmoins, celle-ci ne représente qu’une partie de l’énorme éventail de possibilités culinaires cohabitant dans cette cité-port, résultat d’une transformation sociale vertigineuse qui s’est produite au cours des trois dernières décennies. Dans le texte qui suit, après une brève explication de l’évolution historique de Puerto Vallarta en relation avec l’arrivée de traditions culinaires extérieures, on tente de décrire la perception de cette nouvelle offre gastronomique chez les habitants locaux pour la mettre en rapport avec un possible ethos culturel local. On émet finalement l’hypothèse selon laquelle la juxtaposition des différentes offres gastronomiques locales n’est autre qu’une prolongation de certains « modèles alimentaires », génératrice d’une nouvelle identité socio-culturelle.Puerto Vallarta, located on the Mexican Pacific coast, is now a prestigious tourist destination. It is also considered a venue for gourmet cooks, due to the elaborate variety of gastronomy available. Nevertheless, what meets the eye is only part of a motley crowd of culinary possibilities that emerge simultaneously in this port, which in turn is the result of giddy social changes over the last three decades. The following text gives a brief explanation of the historic evolution of Puerto Vallarta regarding the introduction of different culinary traditions; it explores the perceptions of local inhabitants of these gastronomic innovations; these perceptions are duly related to a supposed local cultural ethos; and finally it proposes that the juxtaposition of what is on offer gastronomically is an extension of certain

  6. Amplification or suppression: Social networks and the climate change-migration association in rural Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M

    2015-11-01

    Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks - the ties connecting an origin and destination - may operate as "migration corridors" with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying , social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place.

  7. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Understanding and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Halofsky

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Public lands in the US Rocky Mountains provide critical ecosystem services, especially to rural communities that rely on these lands for fuel, food, water, and recreation. Climate change will likely affect the ability of these lands to provide ecosystem services. We describe 2 efforts to assess climate change vulnerabilities and develop adaptation options on federal lands in the Rocky Mountains. We specifically focus on aspects that affect community economic security and livelihood security, including water quality and quantity, timber, livestock grazing, and recreation. Headwaters of the Rocky Mountains serve as the primary source of water for large populations, and these headwaters are located primarily on public land. Thus, federal agencies will play a key role in helping to protect water quantity and quality by promoting watershed function and water conservation. Although increased temperatures and atmospheric concentration of CO2 have the potential to increase timber and forage production in the Rocky Mountains, those gains may be offset by wildfires, droughts, insect outbreaks, non-native species, and altered species composition. Our assessment identified ways in which federal land managers can help sustain forest and range productivity, primarily by increasing ecosystem resilience and minimizing current stressors, such as invasive species. Climate change will likely increase recreation participation. However, recreation managers will need more flexibility to adjust practices, provide recreation opportunities, and sustain economic benefits to communities. Federal agencies are now transitioning from the planning phase of climate change adaptation to implementation to ensure that ecosystem services will continue to be provided from federal lands in a changing climate.

  9. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

  10. The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Jennifer R; Kadin, Martina; Nascimento, Francisco J A; Tamelander, Tobias; Törnroos, Anna; Bonaglia, Stefano; Bonsdorff, Erik; Brüchert, Volker; Gårdmark, Anna; Järnström, Marie; Kotta, Jonne; Lindegren, Martin; Nordström, Marie C; Norkko, Alf; Olsson, Jens; Weigel, Benjamin; Žydelis, Ramunas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Niiranen, Susa; Winder, Monika

    2017-06-01

    Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic-pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Climate change alters seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aimée T Classen

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem composition over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change might alter succession remain unresolved. Here, we asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future.We introduced seeds from three early successional tree species into constructed old-field plant communities that had been subjected for 4 years to altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO(2 regimes in an experimental facility. Our experiment revealed that different combinations of atmospheric CO(2 concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture altered seedling emergence and establishment. Treatments directly and indirectly affected soil moisture, which was the best predictor of seedling establishment, though treatment effects differed among species.The observed impacts, coupled with variations in the timing of seed arrival, are demonstrated as predictors of seedling emergence and establishment in ecosystems under global change.

  12. Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean T.; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt

    2012-01-01

    Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for

  13. Woody-plant ecosystems under climate change and air pollution-response consistencies across zonobiomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyssek, R; Kozovits, A R; Wieser, G; King, J; Rennenberg, H

    2017-06-01

    Forests store the largest terrestrial pools of carbon (C), helping to stabilize the global climate system, yet are threatened by climate change (CC) and associated air pollution (AP, highlighting ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)). We adopt the perspective that CC-AP drivers and physiological impacts are universal, resulting in consistent stress responses of forest ecosystems across zonobiomes. Evidence supporting this viewpoint is presented from the literature on ecosystem gross/net primary productivity and water cycling. Responses to CC-AP are compared across evergreen/deciduous foliage types, discussing implications of nutrition and resource turnover at tree and ecosystem scales. The availability of data is extremely uneven across zonobiomes, yet unifying patterns of ecosystem response are discernable. Ecosystem warming results in trade-offs between respiration and biomass production, affecting high elevation forests more than in the lowland tropics and low-elevation temperate zone. Resilience to drought is modulated by tree size and species richness. Elevated O3 tends to counteract stimulation by elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). Biotic stress and genomic structure ultimately determine ecosystem responsiveness. Aggrading early- rather than mature late-successional communities respond to CO2 enhancement, whereas O3 affects North American and Eurasian tree species consistently under free-air fumigation. Insect herbivory is exacerbated by CC-AP in biome-specific ways. Rhizosphere responses reflect similar stand-level nutritional dynamics across zonobiomes, but are modulated by differences in tree-soil nutrient cycling between deciduous and evergreen systems, and natural versus anthropogenic nitrogen (N) oversupply. The hypothesis of consistency of forest responses to interacting CC-AP is supported by currently available data, establishing the precedent for a global network of long-term coordinated research sites across zonobiomes to simultaneously advance both

  14. Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

    2012-08-01

    Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

  15. Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

    2015-08-01

    Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and

  16. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  17. Ecosystem Structure Changes in the Turkish Seas as a Response to Overfishing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazihan Akoglu, Ayse; Salihoglu, Baris; Akoglu, Ekin; Kideys, Ahmet E.

    2013-04-01

    Human population in Turkey has grown more than five-fold since its establishment in 1923 and more than 73 million people are currently living in the country. Turkey is surrounded by partially connected seas (the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea) each of which has significantly different productivity levels and ecosystem characteristics. Increasing human population with its growing socio-economic needs has generated an intensive fishing pressure on the fish stocks in its exclusive economic zone. Fishing grounds in the surrounding seas were exploited with different fishing intensities depending upon their productivity level and catch rates. Hence, the responses of these different ecosystems to overfishing have been realized differently. In this study, changes of the ecosystem structures in the Turkish Seas were comparatively investigated by ecosystem indices such as Marine Trophic Index (MTI), Fishing in Balance (FiB) and Primary Production Required (PPR) to assess the degree of sustainability of the fish stocks for future generations.

  18. Changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function during the restoration of a tropical forest in south China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Hai; LI ZhiAn; SHEN WeiJun; YU ZuoYue; PENG ShaoLin; LIAO ChongHui; DING MingMao; WU JianGuo

    2007-01-01

    Tropical forests continue to vanish rapidly, but few long-term studies have ever examined if and how the lost forests can be restored. Based on a 45-year restoration study in south China, we found that a tropical rain forest, once completely destroyed, could not recover naturally without deliberate restoration efforts. We identified two kinds of thresholds that must be overcome with human ameliorative measures before the ecosystem was able to recover. The first threshold was imposed primarily by extreme physical conditions such as exceedingly high surface temperature and impoverished soil, while the second was characterized by a critical level of biodiversity and a landscape context that accommodates dispersal and colonization processes. Our three treatment catchments (un-restored barren land, single-species plantation, and mixed-forest stand) exhibited dramatically different changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning over 4 decades. The mixed forest, having the highest level of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, possesses several major properties of tropical rain forest.These findings may have important implications for the restoration of many severely degraded or lost tropical forest ecosystems.

  19. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

    Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

  20. Shifting Restoration Policy to Address Landscape Change, Novel Ecosystems, and Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy B. Zedler

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy to guide ecological restoration needs to aim toward minimizing the causes of ecosystem degradation; where causes cannot be eliminated or minimized, policy needs to shift toward accommodating irreversible landscape alterations brought about by climate change, nitrogen deposition, altered hydrology, degraded soil, and declining biodiversity. The degree to which lost diversity and ecosystem services can be recovered depends on the extent and nature of landscape change. For wetlands that occur at the base of watersheds that have been developed for agriculture or urban centers, the inflows of excess water, sediment, and nutrients can be permanent and can severely challenge efforts to restore historical services, including biodiversity support. In such cases, the historical state of downstream wetlands will not be completely restorable. Wetland restoration policy should promote watershed planning, wherein wetland and upland restoration is prioritized to achieve multiple, specific ecosystem services. For downstream wetlands, it is realistic to aim to enhance nitrogen removal and to establish native plants that are matrix dominants, namely, those that facilitate rather than displace other natives. More ambitious objectives such as maximizing diversity would be suitable for less-altered, upstream wetlands. Policy should also call for adaptive restoration and long-term assessments. For large sites and multiple sites of a given wetland type within a region, experimental tests can determine a wetland's ability to support high levels of ecosystem services. Once projects are underway, long-term monitoring of structural and functional indicators can characterize progress toward each objective. Managers can then learn which targets are unachievable based on data, not just opinion. Where an experimental treatment shows limited progress, practitioners would shift to more promising treatments and targets, thereby adapting restoration efforts to changing

  1. Implications of agricultural land use change to ecosystem services in the Ganges delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, G M Tarekul; Islam, A K M Saiful; Shopan, Ahsan Azhar; Rahman, Md Munsur; Lázár, Attila N; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban

    2015-09-15

    Ecosystems provide the basis for human civilization and natural capital for green economy and sustainable development. Ecosystem services may range from crops, fish, freshwater to those that are harder to see such as erosion regulation, carbon sequestration, and pest control. Land use changes have been identified as the main sources of coastal and marine pollution in Bangladesh. This paper explores the temporal variation of agricultural land use change and its implications with ecosystem services in the Ganges delta. With time agricultural lands have been decreased and wetlands have been increased at a very high rate mainly due to the growing popularity of saltwater shrimp farming. In a span of 28 years, the agricultural lands have been reduced by approximately 50%, while the wetlands have been increased by over 500%. A large portion (nearly 40%) of the study area is covered by the Sundarbans which remained almost constant which can be attributed to the strict regulatory intervention to preserve the Sundarbans. The settlement & others land use type has also been increased to nearly 5%. There is a gradual uptrend of shrimp and fish production in the study area. The findings suggest that there are significant linkages between agricultural land use change and ecosystem services in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. The continuous decline of agricultural land (due to salinization) and an increase of wetland have been attributed to the conversion of agricultural land into shrimp farming in the study area. Such land use change requires significant capital, therefore, only investors and wealthier land owners can get the higher profit from the land conversion while the poor people is left with the environmental consequences that affect their long-term lives and livelihood. An environmental management plan is proposed for sustainable land use in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Émilie Saulnier-Talbot

    Full Text Available African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2 adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001 in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

  3. Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Simpson, Kyle G; Efitre, Jackson; Nowlan, Tobias E; Taranu, Zofia E; Chapman, Lauren J

    2014-01-01

    African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2) adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, pdeterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

  4. Ecosystem services and climate change: Understanding the differences and identifying opportunities for forest carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert L. Deal; Crystal Raymond; David L. Peterson; Cindy. Glick

    2010-01-01

    There are a number of misunderstandings about “ecosystem services” and “climate change” and these terms are often used incorrectly to describe different concepts. These concepts address different issues and objectives but have some important integrating themes relating to carbon and carbon sequestration. In this paper, we provide definitions and distinctions between...

  5. Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

  6. Climate change science applications and needs in forest ecosystem management: a workshop organized as part of the northern Wisconsin Climate Change Response Framework Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston; Linda Parker; Maria Janowiak; Richard Birdsey; Louis Iverson; David Mladenoff; Patricia. Butler

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is leading to direct and indirect impacts on forest tree species and ecosystems in northern Wisconsin. Land managers will need to prepare for and respond to these impacts, so we designed a workshop to identify forest management approaches that can enhance the ability of ecosystems in northern Wisconsin to cope with climate change and address how National...

  7. Modeling Landscape-scale Ecosystem Services Relative to Biodiversity in the Upper San Pedro River Basin (U.S. Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is widely understood that human condition is tightly linked to environmental condition and the services it provides. Ecosystem services, i.e. "services provided to humans from natural systems" have become a paramount issue of this century in resource management, conservation, ...

  8. Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, Nancy L; Thrasher, James F; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Cummings, K Michael; Meza, Rafael; Zhang, Yian; Levy, David T

    2017-07-01

    We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.

  9. GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

  10. Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangash, Rubab F; Passuello, Ana; Sanchez-Canales, María; Terrado, Marta; López, Alfredo; Elorza, F Javier; Ziv, Guy; Acuña, Vicenç; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2013-08-01

    The Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and such changes impact the capacity of ecosystems to provide goods and services to human society. The predicted future scenarios for this region present an increased frequency of floods and extended droughts, especially at the Iberian Peninsula. This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on the water provisioning and erosion control services in the densely populated Mediterranean Llobregat river basin of. The assessment of ecosystem services and their mapping at the basin scale identify the current pressures on the river basin including the source area in the Pyrenees Mountains. Drinking water provisioning is expected to decrease between 3 and 49%, while total hydropower production will decrease between 5 and 43%. Erosion control will be reduced by up to 23%, indicating that costs for dredging the reservoirs as well as for treating drinking water will also increase. Based on these data, the concept for an appropriate quantification and related spatial visualization of ecosystem service is elaborated and discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Responses of aquatic ecosystems to environmental changes in Finland and China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan eWeckström

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The concern for the state of global freshwater reservoirs has increased due to deterioration of the water quality during the last decades. This has prompted monitoring and restoration efforts such as the European Water Framework Directive and the national-scale 2nd-investigation and monitoring of the water quality, water volume and biota resources in China. The challenge so far has been the determination of the natural state (reference conditions of freshwater ecosystems. We used the sediment archives of five lakes and one brackish water embayment in Finland and China to assess the impact of selected variables of climatology, hydrology, nutrients, and changes in human population on these ecosystems during the last few centuries. The study sites represent catchment areas with varying land use. Despite the long distance between the sites and their different land-use characteristics, the direction and timing of changes during the last few centuries are well comparable between the high latitudes of Finland and the mid-low latitudes of China. This study reinforces the sensitivity of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change and underlines the usefulness of the palaeolimnological approach as a tool for determining reference conditions.

  12. Conversion of woodlands changes soil related ecosystem services in Subsaharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groengroeft, Alexander; Landschreiber, Lars; Luther-Mosebach, Jona; Masamba, Wellington; Zimmermann, Ibo; Eschenbach, Annette

    2015-04-01

    In remote areas of Subsaharan Africa, growing population, changes in consumption patterns and increasing global influences are leading to a strong pressure on the land resources. Smallholders convert woodlands by fire, grazing and clearing in different intensities thus changing soil properties and their ecosystem functioning. As the extraction of ecosystem services forms the basis of local wellbeing for many communities, the role of soils in providing ecosystem services is of high importance. Since 2010, "The Future Okavango" project investigates the quantification of ecosystem functions and services at four core research sites along the Okavango river basin (Angola, Namibia, Botswana, see http://www.future-okavango.org/). These research sites have an extent of 100 km2 each. Within our subproject the soil functions underlying ecosystem services are studied: The amount and spatial variation of soil nutrient reserves in woodland and their changes by land use activities, the water storage function as a basis for plant growth, and their effect on groundwater recharge and the carbon storage function. The scientific framework consists of four major parts including soil survey and mapping, lab analysis, field measurements and modeling approaches on different scales. A detailed soil survey leads to a measure of the spatial distribution, extent and heterogeneity of soil types for each research site. For generalization purposes, geomorphological and pedological characteristics are merged to derive landscape units. These landscape units have been overlaid by recent land use types to stratify the research site for subsequent soil sampling. On the basis of field and laboratory analysis, spatial distribution of soil properties as well as boundaries between neighboring landscape units are derived. The parameters analysed describe properties according to grain size distribution, organic carbon content, saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity as well as pore space

  13. Values under seige in Mexico: strategies for sheltering traditional values from change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbell, L J

    1993-01-01

    The adverse economic conditions of inflation and falling oil prices over the late 1970s and 1980s in Mexico forced many middle-class married women out of the home and into the workplace in order to help the family maintain its socioeconomic standing. Although this phenomenon ran directly against the traditional Mexican cultural construction of gender and family, many Uruapan middle-class couples had no alternative and rationalized the change by concealing, reinterpreting, or not directly challenging traditional values. Sections discuss the dilemma of middle-class families, Mexican middle-class adaptation to wives' employment, strategies for existing change in values, and the open acceptance of changed values. The author's comments and conclusions are based largely upon interviews with 16 married women of the period. It is concluded that even though the middle class resists them, changes have taken place over the past 20 years in the acceptance of married women in the workplace, the sharing of domestic work, fertility control, and equality between spouses in family decision making. It remains to be seen, however, whether these women will stop working and return to their formerly exclusive roles of wives and mothers if and when economic conditions improve in Mexico.

  14. Simulating the impacts of land use in northwest Europe on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE): the role of arable ecosystems, grasslands and forest plantations in climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla, Mohamed; Saunders, Matthew; Hastings, Astley; Williams, Mike; Smith, Pete; Osborne, Bruce; Lanigan, Gary; Jones, Mike B

    2013-11-01

    In this study, we compared measured and simulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) values from three wide spread ecosystems in the southeast of Ireland (forest, arable and grassland), and investigated the suitability of the DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition) model to estimate present and future NEE. Although, the field-DNDC version overestimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C, forest-DNDC under-estimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C. The results suggest that the field/forest DNDC models can successfully estimate changes in seasonal and annual NEE from these ecosystems. Differences in NEE were found to be primarily land cover specific. The annual NEE was similar for the grassland and arable sites, but due to the contribution of exported carbon, the soil carbon increased at the grassland site and decreased at the arable site. The NEE of the forest site was an order of magnitude larger than that of the grassland or arable ecosystems, with large amounts of carbon stored in woody biomass and the soil. The average annual NEE, GPP and Reco values over the measurement period were -904, 2379 and 1475 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), -189, 906 and 715 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and -212, 1653 and 1444 g C m(-2) (grasslands), respectively. The average RMSE values were 3.8 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), 0.12 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and 0.21 g C m(-2) (grasslands). When these models were run with climate change scenarios to 2060, predictions show that all three ecosystems will continue to operate as carbon sinks. Further, climate change may decrease the carbon sink strength in the forest plantations by up to 50%. This study supports the use of the DNDC model as a valid tool to predict the consequences of climate change on NEE from different ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miloslavich, Patricia; Bax, Nicholas J; Simmons, Samantha E; Klein, Eduardo; Appeltans, Ward; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Andersen Garcia, Melissa; Batten, Sonia D; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Checkley, David M; Chiba, Sanae; Duffy, J Emmett; Dunn, Daniel C; Fischer, Albert; Gunn, John; Kudela, Raphael; Marsac, Francis; Muller-Karger, Frank E; Obura, David; Shin, Yunne-Jai

    2018-04-05

    Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure

  16. The Initiative to extend Medicare into Mexico: a case study in changing U.S. Health Care Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto A. Ibarra

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the geo-political activities of interest groups, governments and multinational corporations involved in an initiative to extend Medicare to U.S. retirees residing in Mexico.  If the initiative to change the current Medicare policy succeeds, the relocation of Medicare-eligible populations from the U.S. to Mexico is likely to increase; the U.S. is expected to gain cost-savings for taxpayers on Medicare; Mexico can develop senior-housing and options for long-term care it currently lacks; and foreign-led multinational corporations will increase their profits and dominance, fostering even more privatization in Mexico’s health care sector. By exploring new issues about retirement migration and health this study seeks to gain knowledge about the phenomena in a number of areas.  First, the retirement migration of North Americans to Latin America is an under-studied phenomenon in the fields of social gerontology, migration research, and health policy studies.  Second, the Medicare in Mexico initiative is even less well-known among health policy scholars than the retirement migration phenomenon into Mexico. Yet this initiative is inherently international in scope and involves a number of US-based institutions and interest groups actively promoting the project from within Mexico. Thus, the initiative has important geo-political and socio-economic implications for reforming health care systems in the U.S. and Mexico.

  17. Land use change and ecosystem service provision in Pampas and Campos grasslands of southern South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modernel, P.; Rossing, W. A. H.; Corbeels, M.; Dogliotti, S.; Picasso, V.; Tittonell, P.

    2016-11-01

    New livestock production models need to simultaneously meet the increasing global demand for meat and preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Since the 16th century beef cattle has been produced on the Pampas and Campos native grasslands in southern South America, with only small amounts of external inputs. We synthesised 242 references from peer-reviewed and grey literature published between 1945 and mid-2015 and analysed secondary data to examine the evidence on the ecosystem services provided by this grassland biodiversity hotspot and the way they are affected by land use changes and their drivers. The analysis followed the requirements of systematic review from the PRISMA statement (Moher et al 2009 Acad. Clin. Ann. Intern. Med. 151 264-9). The Pampas and Campos provide feed for 43 million heads of cattle and 14 million sheep. The biome is habitat of 4000 native plant species, 300 species of birds, 29 species of mammals, 49 species of reptiles and 35 species of amphibians. The soils of the region stock 5% of the soil organic carbon of Latin America on 3% of its area. Driven by high prices of soybean, the soybean area increased by 210% between 2000 and 2010, at the expense of 2 million ha (5%) of native grassland, mostly in the Pampas. Intensification of livestock production was apparent in two spatially distinct forms. In subregions where cropping increased, intensification of livestock production was reflected in an increased use of grains for feed as part of feedlots. In subregions dominated by native grasslands, stocking rates increased. The review showed that land use change and grazing regimes with low forage allowances were predominantly associated with negative effects on ecosystem service provision by reducing soil organic carbon stocks and the diversity of plants, birds and mammals, and by increasing soil erosion. We found little quantitative information on changes in the ecosystem services water provision, nutrient cycling and erosion control

  18. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  19. Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

  20. Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

  1. Human impacts on riparian ecosystems of the Middle Rio Grande Valley during historic times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank E. Wozniak

    1996-01-01

    The development of irrigation agriculture in historic times has profoundly impacted riparian ecosystems in the Middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. A vital relationship has existed between water resources and settlement in the semi-arid Southwest since prehistoric times. Levels of technology have influenced human generated changes in the riparian ecosystems of the...

  2. Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellegrini, Adam F. A.; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Reich, Peter B.; Nieradzik, Lars P.; Staver, A. Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C.; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R. L.; Randerson, James T.; Jackson, Robert B.

    2018-01-01

    Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

  3. Global change in marine ecosystems: implications for semi-enclosed Arabian seas

    KAUST Repository

    Duarte, Carlos M.

    2015-12-07

    Global Change has been defined as the impact of human activities on the key processes that determine the functioning of the Biosphere. Global Change is a major threat for marine ecosystems and includes climate change as well as other global impacts such as inputs of pollutants, overfishing and coastal sprawl. The Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas, including the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, have supported human livelihoods in the Arabian Peninsula over centuries and continue to do so, but are also threatened by Global Change. These threats are particularly severe as Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas already present rather extreme conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and oxygen concentration. The vulnerability of the unique marine ecosystems of the Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors is largely unknown, but predictions based on first principles suggest that they may be at or near the tipping point for many pressures, such as warming and hypoxia. There is an urgent need to implement international collaborative research programs to accelerate our understanding of the vulnerability of Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors in order to inform conservation and management plans to ensure these Seas continue to support the livelihoods and well-being of the Arab nations.

  4. Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temmerman, Stijn; Meire, Patrick; Bouma, Tjeerd J; Herman, Peter M J; Ysebaert, Tom; De Vriend, Huib J

    2013-12-05

    The risk of flood disasters is increasing for many coastal societies owing to global and regional changes in climate conditions, sea-level rise, land subsidence and sediment supply. At the same time, in many locations, conventional coastal engineering solutions such as sea walls are increasingly challenged by these changes and their maintenance may become unsustainable. We argue that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide a more sustainable, cost-effective and ecologically sound alternative to conventional coastal engineering and that, in suitable locations, it should be implemented globally and on a large scale.

  5. Sedimentary evolution and ecosystem change in Ahémé lake, south-west Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoussou, Ernest; Totin Vodounon, Henri S.; Vissin, Expédit W.; Mahé, Gil; Oyédé, Marc Lucien

    2018-04-01

    Tropical moist ecosystems, such as Ahémé lake, south-west Benin, are increasingly marked by water degradation, linked with the activities of increasing riparian populations. The objective of this study is to analyze sedimentary dynamics and its influence on the changing ecosystem of Ahémé lake from 1961-2010. Data used to carry out the study are records of precipitation, flows, turbidity, suspended sediment, mineral elements and bathymetry. Grain size data from the sieving of sediment samples were used to interpret suspended solids distribution in the lake. Linear correlation coefficients were used to assess the degree of dependence between rainfall and runoff inputs to the lake. Lake depth measurements in some areas of the lake serve to determine the rate of infilling. The sorting index was used to highlight the distribution and origin of sediments in the lake. The results show a degradation of the lake Ahémé ecosystem characterized by infilling of its bed, a high correlation (r = 0.90) between rainfall and runoff, seasonal change in physicochemical parameters (total suspended sediment decrease by -91 %) and decrease in fish production by 135.8 t yr-1. The highest mean suspended sediment concentrations in lake inputs occur during high water periods (123 mg L-1) compared to low water periods (11.2 mg L-1).

  6. Changes in Nature's Balance Sheet: Model-based Estimates of Future Worldwide Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Alcamo

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Four quantitative scenarios are presented that describe changes in worldwide ecosystem services up to 2050-2100. A set of soft-linked global models of human demography, economic development, climate, and biospheric processes are used to quantify these scenarios. The global demand for ecosystem services substantially increases up to 2050: cereal consumption by a factor of 1.5 to 1.7, fish consumption (up to the 2020s by a factor of 1.3 to 1.4, water withdrawals by a factor of 1.3 to 2.0, and biofuel production by a factor of 5.1 to 11.3. The ranges for these estimates reflect differences between the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios. In all simulations, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind other parts of the world. Although the demand side of these scenarios presents an overall optimistic view of the future, the supply side is less optimistic: the risk of higher soil erosion (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and lower water availability (especially in the Middle East could slow down an increase in food production. Meanwhile, increasing wastewater discharges during the same period, especially in Latin America (factor of 2 to 4 and Sub-Saharan Africa (factor of 3.6 to 5.6 could interfere with the delivery of freshwater services. Marine fisheries (despite the growth of aquaculture may not have the ecological capacity to provide for the increased global demand for fish. Our simulations also show an intensification of present tradeoffs between ecosystem services, e.g., expansion of agricultural land (between 2000 and 2050 may be one of the main causes of a 10%-20% loss of total current grassland and forest land and the ecosystem services associated with this land (e.g., genetic resources, wood production, habitat for terrestrial biota and fauna. The scenarios also show that certain hot-spot regions may experience especially rapid changes in ecosystem services: the central part of Africa, southern Asia, and the Middle East. In general

  7. A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoll, Andrew H; Follows, Michael J

    2016-10-26

    Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. © 2016 The Authors.

  8. Ecological feedbacks. Termite mounds can increase the robustness of dryland ecosystems to climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonachela, Juan A; Pringle, Robert M; Sheffer, Efrat; Coverdale, Tyler C; Guyton, Jennifer A; Caylor, Kelly K; Levin, Simon A; Tarnita, Corina E

    2015-02-06

    Self-organized spatial vegetation patterning is widespread and has been described using models of scale-dependent feedback between plants and water on homogeneous substrates. As rainfall decreases, these models yield a characteristic sequence of patterns with increasingly sparse vegetation, followed by sudden collapse to desert. Thus, the final, spot-like pattern may provide early warning for such catastrophic shifts. In many arid ecosystems, however, termite nests impart substrate heterogeneity by altering soil properties, thereby enhancing plant growth. We show that termite-induced heterogeneity interacts with scale-dependent feedbacks to produce vegetation patterns at different spatial grains. Although the coarse-grained patterning resembles that created by scale-dependent feedback alone, it does not indicate imminent desertification. Rather, mound-field landscapes are more robust to aridity, suggesting that termites may help stabilize ecosystems under global change. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  9. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  10. The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Kadin, Martina; Nascimento, Francisco J. A.

    2017-01-01

    and function is strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures, however there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling...... processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study, and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic......Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure...

  11. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  12. Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queirós, Ana M; Huebert, Klaus B; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C; Hamon, Katell G; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R; Somerfield, Paul J; Austen, Melanie C; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A

    2016-12-01

    The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Comparison Between Paeoenvironmental and Land Use Changes Records in Brazilian Amazon Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro, R. C.; Turcq, B. J.; Rodrigues, R. A.; Sifeddine, A.; Seoane, J. S.; Simões Filho, F. L.; Conceicao, M. G.

    2008-12-01

    Interpretations of biomass burn records in lacustrine sediments need a comparison among the charcoal particle fluxes influenced by different plant communities. The charcoal fluxes, which are related with paleofires, represent an important disturbance to the atmospheric system. These charcoal particles emitted to the atmosphere can promote a decrease in the sunlight penetration and greenhouse gas enhancement.Thus, the evaluation of charcoal deposition, as a consequence of regional burns, will have great importance to determine the impact of climatic change in different tropical ecosystems. This subject will be an important contribution for understanding the dynamics among vegetation, climate and carbon cycle along the present interglacial. In this study, paleofires records were obtained through the charcoal particle fluxes analysis in sediments of lakes surrounded by different vegetation, which represents the most spread ecosystems in Brazil. The main goals were to identify major events of vegetation burn during the Holocene and evaluate the influence of biomass availability to charcoal fluxes. Fires records were obtained through the charcoal particles flux analyses in lacustrine sediments cores at the following locations Brazilian Amazon: Lagoa da Pata (AM); Humaitá (AM), Lago do Saci (PA), Carajás N4, (PA); and Caracarana (RO) and reservoirs sediments in an intense land use change region (Alta Floresta, MT). The charcoal analyses could have also a great importance in evaluating the impact of dry climates in different ecosystems. Determination of fire frequencies and dimensions in key areas of South America, during the Holocene, is a first step to understand the global carbon transference between terrestrial and atmospheric systems. The synchronism among the fires occurrences show a good relation with the middle Holocene dry climate phase in Brazil. Discrepancy in the flux values could be attributed to differences in biomass availability provided by these

  14. Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

    2017-07-12

    Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

  15. Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

  16. Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

  17. Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Maass

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii developing analytical tools for integration; (iii promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting

  18. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  19. Determination of Land Use/ Land Cover Changes in Igneada Alluvial (Longos) Forest Ecosystem, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bektas Balcik, F.

    2012-12-01

    Alluvial (Longos) forests are one of the most fragile and threatened ecosystems in the world. Typically, these types of ecosystems have high biological diversity, high productivity, and high habitat dynamism. In this study, Igneada, Kirklareli was selected as study area. The region, lies between latitudes 41° 46' N and 41° 59' N and stretches between longitudes 27° 50' E and 28° 02' E and it covers approximately 24000 (ha). Igneada Longos ecosystems include mixed forests, streams, flooded (alluvial) forests, marshes, wetlands, lakes and coastal sand dunes with different types of flora and fauna. Igneada was classified by Conservation International as one of the world's top 122 Important Plant Areas, and 185 Important Bird Areas. These types of wild forest in other parts of Turkey and in Europe have been damaged due to anthropogenic effects. Remote sensing is very effective tool to monitor these types of sensitive regions for sustainable management. In this study, 1984 and 2011 dated Landsat 5 TM data were used to determine land cover/land use change detection of the selected region by using six vegetation indices such as Tasseled Cap index of greenness (TCG), brightness (TCB), and wetness (TCW), ratios of near-infrared to red image (RVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). Geometric and radiometric corrections were applied in image pre-processing step. Selective Principle Component Analysis (PCA) change detection method was applied to the selected vegetation index imagery to generate change imagery for extracting the changed features between the year of 1984 and 2011. Accuracy assessment was applied based on error matrix by calculating overall accuracy and Kappa statistics.

  20. Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in Central Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos Martínez-Santiago

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although water-eroded soil (WES resulting from human activities has been recognized as the leading global cause of land degradation, the soil erosion risks from climate change are not clear. Studies have reported that WES is the second most significant cause of soil loss in Mexico, and its future trajectory has not been sufficiently evaluated. The aims of this study are to 1 determine the impacts of climate change on WES and its distribution for the State of Aguascalientes, Mexico, and to 2 compare the present and future soil loss rates for the study unit (SU. The State of Aguascalientes is located in the “Region del Bajio.” The impact of climate change on WES was evaluated using the near-future divided world scenario (A2 presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 18 weather stations were downscaled to model historic laminar water erosion (HLWE and changes therein in the A2 near-future scenario for 2010–2039 (LWEScA2. Due to future changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR levels, a change in the LWEScA2 of between 1.6 and 8.9% could result in average soil losses up to 475.4 t ha-1 yr-1, representing a loss of slightly more than a 30-mm layer of mountain soil per year. The risk zones, classified as class 4 for LWE, are located to western of the State in part of municipalities of Calvillo, Jesus María, San José de Gracia y Cosio, where there are typical hills and falls with soil very sensitive to rain erosion.

  1. Climate-induced changes in lake ecosystem structure inferred from coupled neo- and paleoecological approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saros, Jasmine E.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Slemmons, Krista; Spanbauer, Trisha; Schliep, Anna; Cahl, Douglas; Williamson, Craig E.; Engstrom, Daniel R.

    2015-01-01

    Over the 20th century, surface water temperatures have increased in many lake ecosystems around the world, but long-term trends in the vertical thermal structure of lakes remain unclear, despite the strong control that thermal stratification exerts on the biological response of lakes to climate change. Here we used both neo- and paleoecological approaches to develop a fossil-based inference model for lake mixing depths and thereby refine understanding of lake thermal structure change. We focused on three common planktonic diatom taxa, the distributions of which previous research suggests might be affected by mixing depth. Comparative lake surveys and growth rate experiments revealed that these species respond to lake thermal structure when nitrogen is sufficient, with species optima ranging from shallower to deeper mixing depths. The diatom-based mixing depth model was applied to sedimentary diatom profiles extending back to 1750 AD in two lakes with moderate nitrate concentrations but differing climate settings. Thermal reconstructions were consistent with expected changes, with shallower mixing depths inferred for an alpine lake where treeline has advanced, and deeper mixing depths inferred for a boreal lake where wind strength has increased. The inference model developed here provides a new tool to expand and refine understanding of climate-induced changes in lake ecosystems.

  2. Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Adams, Layne G.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

  3. The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, S.

    2009-05-01

    Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

  4. Changing treatment of breast cancer in New Mexico from 1969 through 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, B.A.; Samet, J.M.; Hunt, W.C.; Key, C.R.; Goodwin, J.M.; Goodwin, J.S.

    1988-01-01

    A review of information from the New Mexico Tumor Registry on women diagnosed as having primary breast cancer from 1969 through 1985 revealed temporal changes in the surgical treatment of this disease. After 1980 the percentage of women receiving breast-conserving surgery for local-stage disease increased from 6% to 25%. Most surgeons performing operations for breast cancer had not performed a breast-conserving operation before 1981 but had used this procedure at least once in the period from 1981 through 1985. Women younger than 50 years or older than 80 years were most likely to undergo this procedure. In that period, radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery could not be documented for 26% of the women 65 years old or younger or for 56% of the women aged 65 years or older. Thus, there has been a marked shift in New Mexico in the surgical approach to local-stage breast cancer in the 1980s. This shift involved most surgeons treating the disease and included women of all age groups. The apparent lack of adjuvant radiotherapy in some women receiving conservative surgeries may prove to be deleterious consequence of this change in surgical management

  5. Developing and implementing climate change adaptation options in forest ecosystems: a case study in southwestern Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Kerry L. Metlen; Gwyneth M. Myer; Alaric V. Sample

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabilities and to develop...

  6. Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in -Laikipia, of Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M'mboroki, Kiambi Gilbert; Wandiga, Shem; Oriaso, Silas Odongo

    2018-03-29

    The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the

  7. Examining responses of ecosystem carbon exchange to environmental changes using particle filtering mathod

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokozawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    Attention has been paid to the agricultural field that could regulate ecosystem carbon exchange by water management and residual treatments. However, there have been less known about the dynamic responses of the ecosystem to environmental changes. In this study, focussing on paddy field, where CO2 emissions due to microbial decomposition of organic matter are suppressed and alternatively CH4 emitted under flooding condition during rice growth season and subsequently CO2 emission following the fallow season after harvest, the responses of ecosystem carbon exchange were examined. We conducted model data fusion analysis for examining the response of cropland-atmosphere carbon exchange to environmental variation. The used model consists of two sub models, paddy rice growth sub-model and soil decomposition sub-model. The crop growth sub-model mimics the rice plant growth processes including formation of reproductive organs as well as leaf expansion. The soil decomposition sub-model simulates the decomposition process of soil organic carbon. Assimilating the data on the time changes in CO2 flux measured by eddy covariance method, rice plant biomass, LAI and the final yield with the model, the parameters were calibrated using a stochastic optimization algorithm with a particle filter method. The particle filter method, which is one of the Monte Carlo filters, enable us to evaluating time changes in parameters based on the observed data until the time and to make prediction of the system. Iterative filtering and prediction with changing parameters and/or boundary condition enable us to obtain time changes in parameters governing the crop production as well as carbon exchange. In this study, we focused on the parameters related to crop production as well as soil carbon storage. As the results, the calibrated model with estimated parameters could accurately predict the NEE flux in the subsequent years. The temperature sensitivity, denoted by Q10s in the decomposition rate of

  8. Change in terrestrial ecosystem water-use efficiency over the last three decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mengtian; Piao, Shilong; Sun, Yan; Ciais, Philippe; Cheng, Lei; Mao, Jiafu; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yingping

    2015-06-01

    Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), ecosystem-scale water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data-driven models derived from satellite observations and process-oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m(-2)  mm(-1)  yr(-1) under the single effect of rising CO2 ('CO2 '), climate change ('CLIM') and nitrogen deposition ('NDEP'), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE-CO2 shows global increases, (ii) EWUE-CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE-NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data-driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (-0.0005 g C m(-2)  mm(-1)  yr(-1) ), which differs from process-model (0.0064 g C m(-2)  mm(-1)  yr(-1) ) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO2 reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration (TR) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data-driven model and the process-oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water-use efficiency defined from transpiration-based WUEt (GPP/TR) and inherent water-use efficiency (IWUEt , GPP×VPD/TR) in response to rising CO2 , climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will

  9. Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyao Xu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization, and the resulting land use/cover change, is a primary cause of the degradation of coastal wetland ecosystems. Reclamation projects are seen as a way to strike a balance between socioeconomic development and maintenance of coastal ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the ecological changes to Jiangsu’s coastal wetland resulting from land use change since 1977 by using remote sensing and spatial analyses. The results indicate that: (1 The area of artificial land use expanded while natural land use was reduced, which emphasized an increase in production-orientated land uses at the expense of ecologically important wetlands; (2 It took 34 years for landscape ecological security and 39 years for ecosystem services to regain equilibrium. The coastal reclamation area would recover ecological equilibrium only after a minimum of 30 years; (3 The total ecosystem service value decreased significantly from $2.98 billion per year to $2.31 billion per year from 1977 to 2014. Food production was the only one ecosystem service function that consistently increased, mainly because of government policy; (4 The relationship between landscape ecological security and ecosystem services is complicated, mainly because of the scale effect of landscape ecology. Spatial analysis of changing gravity centers showed that landscape ecological security and ecosystem service quality became better in the north than the south over the study period.

  10. Mechanistic insights on the responses of plant and ecosystem gas exchange to global environmental change: lessons from Biosphere 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel A; Rucks, Jessica S; Aubanell, Gerard

    2014-09-01

    Scaling up leaf processes to canopy/ecosystem level fluxes is critical for examining feedbacks between vegetation and climate. Collectively, studies from Biosphere 2 Laboratory have provided important insight of leaf-to-ecosystem investigations of multiple environmental parameters that were not before possible in enclosed or field studies. B2L has been a testing lab for the applicability of new technologies such as spectral approaches to detect spatial and temporal changes in photosynthesis within canopies, or for the development of cavity ring-down isotope applications for ecosystem evapotranspiration. Short and long term changes in atmospheric CO2, drought or temperature allowed for intensive investigation of the interactions between photosynthesis and leaf, soil and ecosystem respiration. Experiments conducted in the rainforest biome have provided some of the most comprehensive dataset to date on the effects of climate change variables on tropical ecosystems. Results from these studies have been later corroborated in natural rainforest ecosystems and have improved the predictive capabilities of models that now show increased resilience of tropics to climate change. Studies of temperature and CO2 effects on ecosystem respiration and its leaf and soil components have helped reconsider the use of simple first-order kinetics for characterizing respiration in models. The B2L also provided opportunities to quantify the rhizosphere priming effect, or establish the relationships between net primary productivity, atmospheric CO2 and isoprene emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolken, Jane M.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Rupp, T. Scott; Chapin, Stuart III; Trainor, Sarah F.; Barrett, Tara M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; McGuire, A. David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hennon, Paul E.; Beever, Erik A.; Conn, Jeff S.; Crone, Lisa K.; D'Amore, David V.; Fresco, Nancy; Hanley, Thomas A.; Kielland, Knut; Kruse, James J.; Patterson, Trista; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Verbyla, David L.; Yarie, John

    2011-01-01

    The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates

  12. Process Network Approach to Understanding How Forest Ecosystems Adapt to Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Yun, J.; Hong, J.; Kwon, H.; Chun, J.

    2011-12-01

    Sustainability challenges are transforming science and its role in society. Complex systems science has emerged as an inevitable field of education and research, which transcends disciplinary boundaries and focuses on understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological systems (SES). SES is a combined system of social and ecological components and drivers that interact and give rise to results, which could not be understood on the basis of sociological or ecological considerations alone. However, both systems may be viewed as a network of processes, and such a network hierarchy may serve as a hinge to bridge social and ecological systems. As a first step toward such effort, we attempted to delineate and interpret such process networks in forest ecosystems, which play a critical role in the cycles of carbon and water from local to global scales. These cycles and their variability, in turn, play an important role in the emergent and self-organizing interactions between forest ecosystems and their environment. Ruddell and Kumar (2009) define a process network as a network of feedback loops and the related time scales, which describe the magnitude and direction of the flow of energy, matter, and information between the different variables in a complex system. Observational evidence, based on micrometeorological eddy covariance measurements, suggests that heterogeneity and disturbances in forest ecosystems in monsoon East Asia may facilitate to build resilience for adaptation to change. Yet, the principles that characterize the role of variability in these interactions remain elusive. In this presentation, we report results from the analysis of multivariate ecohydrologic and biogeochemical time series data obtained from temperate forest ecosystems in East Asia based on information flow statistics.

  13. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  14. Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

    2002-01-01

    Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction

  15. Trajectories of grassland ecosystem change in response to experimental manipulations of precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Alan; Smith, Melinda; Collins, Scott; Blair, John; Briggs, John

    2010-05-01

    Understanding and predicting the dynamics of ecological systems has always been central to Ecology. Today, ecologists recognize that in addition to natural and human-caused disturbances, a fundamentally different type of ecosystem change is being driven by the combined and cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities affecting earth's climate and biogeochemical cycles. This type of change is historically unprecedented in magnitude, and as a consequence, such alterations are leading to trajectories of change in ecological responses that differ radically from those observed in the past. Through both short- and long-term experiments, we have been trying to better understand the mechanisms and consequences of ecological change in grassland ecosystems likely to result from changes in precipitation regimes. We have manipulated a key resource for most grasslands (water) and modulators of water availability (temperature) in field experiments that vary from 1-17 years in duration, and used even longer-term monitoring data from the Konza Prairie LTER program to assess how grassland communities and ecosystems will respond to changes in water availability. Trajectories of change in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in sites subjected to 17 years of soil water augmentation were strongly non-linear with a marked increase in the stimulation of ANPP after year 8 (from 25% to 65%). Lags in alterations in grassland community composition are posited to be responsible for the form of this trajectory of change. In contrast, responses in ANPP to chronic increases in soil moisture variability appear to have decreased over a 10-yr period of manipulation, although the net effects of more variable precipitation inputs were to reduce ANPP, alter the genetic structure of the dominant grass species, increase soil nitrogen availability and reduce soil respiration. The loss of sensitivity to increased resource variability was not reflected in adjacent plots where precipitation was

  16. An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

  17. Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Belyazid, Salim; Calfapietra, Carlo; de Marco, Alessandra; Fenn, Mark; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Grulke, Nancy; He, Shang; Matyssek, Rainer; Serengil, Yusuf; Wieser, Gerhard; Paoletti, Elena

    2016-06-01

    Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii) Linking genetic control with physiological whole-tree activity; (iii) Epigenetic responses to climate change and air pollution; (iv) Embedding individual tree performance into the multi-factorial stand-level interaction network; (v) Interactions of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile compounds (molecular, functional and ecological bases); (vi) Estimating the potential for carbon/pollution mitigation and cost effectiveness of urban and peri-urban forests; (vii) Selection of trees adapted to the urban environment; (viii) Trophic, competitive and host/parasite relationships under changing pollution and climate; (ix) Atmosphere-biosphere-pedosphere interactions as affected by anthropospheric changes; (x) Statistical analyses for epidemiological investigations; (xi) Use of monitoring for the validation of models; (xii) Holistic view for linking the climate, carbon, N and O3 modelling; (xiii) Inclusion of multiple environmental stresses (biotic and abiotic) in critical load determinations; (xiv) Ecological impacts of N deposition in the under-investigated areas; (xv) Empirical models for mechanistic effects at the local scale; (xvi) Broad-scale N and sulphur deposition input and their effects on forest ecosystem services; (xvii) Measurements of dry deposition of N; (xviii) Assessment of evapotranspiration; (xix) Remote sensing assessment of hydrological parameters; and (xx) Forest management for maximizing water provision and overall forest ecosystem services. Ground-level O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major concern to forest health. Specific issues about O3 are: (xxi) Developing dose-response relationships and

  18. Assessing land use/cover changes: a nationwide multidate spatial database for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mas, Jean-François; Velázquez, Alejandro; Díaz-Gallegos, José Reyes; Mayorga-Saucedo, Rafael; Alcántara, Camilo; Bocco, Gerardo; Castro, Rutilio; Fernández, Tania; Pérez-Vega, Azucena

    2004-10-01

    A nationwide multidate GIS database was generated in order to carry out the quantification and spatial characterization of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in Mexico. Existing cartography on land use/cover at a 1:250,000 scale was revised to select compatible inputs regarding the scale, the classification scheme and the mapping method. Digital maps from three different dates (the late 1970s, 1993 and 2000) were revised, evaluated, corrected and integrated into a GIS database. In order to improve the reliability of the database, an attempt was made to assess the accuracy of the digitalisation procedure and to detect and correct unlikely changes due to thematic errors in the maps. Digital maps were overlaid in order to generate LUCC maps, transition matrices and to calculate rates of conversion. Based upon this database, rates of deforestation between 1976 and 2000 were evaluated as 0.25 and 0.76% per year for temperate and tropical forests, respectively.

  19. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  20. Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tape, Ken D.; Pearce, John M.; Walworth, Dennis; Meixell, Brandt W.; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David D.; Flint, Paul L.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations.

  1. Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

    2017-12-01

    To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input

  2. Changing seasonality of Arctic hydrology disrupts key biotic linkages in Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegan, L.; MacKenzie, C.; Peterson, B. J.; Fishscape Project

    2011-12-01

    Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) is an important circumpolar species that provide a model system for understanding the impacts of changing seasonality on arctic ecosystem function. Grayling serve as food for other biota, including lake trout, birds and humans, and act as top-down controls in stream ecosystems. In Arctic tundra streams, grayling spend their summers in streams but are obligated to move back into deep overwintering lakes in the fall. Climatic change that affects the seasonality of river hydrology could have a significant impact on grayling populations: grayling may leave overwintering lakes sooner in the spring and return later in the fall due to a longer open water season, but the migration could be disrupted by drought due to increased variability in discharge. In turn, a shorter overwintering season may impact lake trout dynamics in the lakes, which may rely on the seasonal inputs of stream nutrients in the form of migrating grayling into these oligotrophic lakes. To assess how shifting seasonality of Arctic river hydrology may disrupt key trophic linkages within and between lake and stream components of watersheds on the North Slope of the Brooks Mountain Range, Alaska, we have undertaken new work on grayling and lake trout population and food web dynamics. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags coupled with stream-width antenna units to monitor grayling movement across Arctic tundra watersheds during the summer, and into overwintering habitat in the fall. Results indicate that day length may prime grayling migration readiness, but that flooding events are likely the cue grayling use to initiate migration in to overwintering lakes. Many fish used high discharge events in the stream as an opportunity to move into lakes. Stream and lake derived stable isotopes also indicate that lake trout rely on these seasonally transported inputs of stream nutrients for growth. Thus, changes in the seasonality of river hydrology may have broader

  3. Geology and biology of the "Sticky Grounds," shelf-margin carbonate mounds, and mesophotic ecosystem in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locker, Stanley D.; Reed, John K.; Farrington, Stephanie; Harter, Stacey; Hine, Albert C.; Dunn, Shane

    2016-01-01

    Shelf-margin carbonate mounds in water depths of 116–135 m in the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the central west Florida shelf were investigated using swath bathymetry, side-scan sonar, sub-bottom imaging, rock dredging, and submersible dives. These enigmatic structures, known to fisherman as the “Sticky Grounds”, trend along slope, are 5–15 m in relief with base diameters of 5–30 m, and suggest widespread potential for mesophotic reef habitat along the west Florida outer continental shelf. Possible origins are sea-level lowstand coral patch reefs, oyster reefs, or perhaps more recent post-lowstand biohermal development. Rock dredging recovered bioeroded carbonate-rock facies comprised of bored and cemented bioclastics. Rock sample components included calcified worm tubes, pelagic sediment, and oysters normally restricted to brackish nearshore areas. Several reef sites were surveyed at the Sticky Grounds during a cruise in August 2010 with the R/V Seward Johnson using the Johnson-Sea-Link II submersible to ground truth the swath-sonar maps and to quantify and characterize the benthic habitats, benthic macrofauna, fish populations, and coral/sponge cover. This study characterizes for the first time this mesophotic reef ecosystem and associated fish populations, and analyzes the interrelationships of the fish assemblages, benthic habitats and invertebrate biota. These highly eroded rock mounds provide extensive hard-bottom habitat for reef invertebrate species as well as essential fish habitat for reef fish and commercially/recreationally important fish species. The extent and significance of associated living resources with these bottom types is particularly important in light of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the northeastern Gulf and the proximity of the Loop Current. Mapping the distribution of these mesophotic-depth ecosystems is important for quantifying essential fish habitat and describing benthic resources. These activities can improve

  4. Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris population in Baja California, Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C García-Aguilar

    Full Text Available The Earth's climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States.

  5. Evaluation of hydrochemical changes due to intensive aquifer exploitation: case studies from Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteller, M V; Rodríguez, R; Cardona, A; Padilla-Sánchez, L

    2012-09-01

    The impact of intensive aquifer exploitation has been observed in numerous places around the world. Mexico is a representative example of this problem. In 2010, 101 out of the 653 aquifers recognized in the country, showed negative social, economic, and environmental effects related to intensive exploitation. The environmental effects include, among others, groundwater level decline, subsidence, attenuation, and drying up of springs, decreased river flow, and deterioration of water quality. This study aimed at determining the hydrochemical changes produced by intensive aquifer exploitation and highlighting water quality modifications, taking as example the Valle de Toluca, Salamanca, and San Luis Potosi aquifers in Mexico's highlands. There, elements such as fluoride, arsenic, iron, and manganese have been detected, resulting from the introduction of older groundwater with longer residence times and distinctive chemical composition (regional flows). High concentrations of other elements such as chloride, sulfate, nitrate, and vanadium, as well as pathogens, all related to anthropogenic pollution sources (wastewater infiltration, irrigation return flow, and atmospheric pollutants, among others) were also observed. Some of these elements (nitrate, fluoride, arsenic, iron, and manganese) have shown concentrations above Mexican and World Health Organization drinking water standards.

  6. Modeling impacts of climate change on carbon dynamics in a steppe ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Jinzhi; Rui, Yichao; Niu, Haishan [Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). College of Resources and Environment; Hao, Yanbin; Cui, Xiaoyong; Wang, Yanfen [Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). College of Life Sciences; Li, Changsheng [New Hampshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Ocean and Space

    2011-06-15

    Purpose: In this study, a process-oriented biogeochemistry model, denitrification-decomposition (DNDC), was employed and adapted to interpret and integrate the field observations that the tested ecosystem was a weak sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in 2004 but a strong source in 2005 during the growing seasons. Then we applied the model to predict long-term impacts of climate change on carbon (C) dynamics in the semiarid grassland. Materials and methods: To adapt DNDC for the targeted grassland, we modified the default values of several grass parameters such as maximum biomass production, biomass partitions, plant tissue C/N ratio, and accumulative thermal degree days based on local observations. Daily weather data for 2004 and 2005 in conjunction with soil properties and management practices for the location were utilized as inputs to simulate the grass growth and soil C dynamics. The modeled C fluxes were compared with the eddy tower data. Sensitivity tests were conducted with a baseline and twelve alternative climate scenarios of 100 years for the target grassland. Results and discussion: The observed and modeled CO{sub 2} fluxes data were well in agreement (P < 0.0001), both showing that the grassland shifted from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2} from a wet year (2004) to a dry year (2005) over growing season. Simulations of 100 years found that, under the fenced conditions, (1) the tested ecosystem would gain C with the baseline climate conditions at a rate of 200 kg C/ha/year; (2) the warmer and drier climate scenario made the worst case having the lowest grass production with 72 kg C/ha/year lost from the soil carbon pool; and (3) the cooler and wetter climate scenario made the best case having the highest biomass production with 790 kg C/ha/year sequestered in the soil during the simulated 100 years. Conclusions: DNDC model could be used for the prediction of C dynamics in this semiarid grassland ecosystem. Since the ecosystem

  7. Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub-dominated ecosystems to changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Hoset, Katrine S; Olofsson, Johan

    2015-09-01

    Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Ecosystems and Climate Change. Research Priorities for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-01

    photosynthesis ), evapotranspiration, and energy balance. 12 Climate change recommended research priorities Organic matter inputs to soils and aquatic...may be altered through changes in climate (e.g., coral reefs, seagrass ). Finally, services provided by a number of federally protected areas depend

  9. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants

  10. Variations of Ecosystem Service Value in Response to Land-Use Change in the Kashgar Region, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aynur Mamat

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing anthropogenic activities have significantly altered ecosystems in arid oasis regions. Estimating the impact on a wide range of ecosystem services is important for decision making and the sustainable development of these regions. This study analyzed time-series Landsat data to determine the influences of oasis land-use changes on the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region in Northwest China. The following results were found. The total value of the ecosystem services in the Kashgar region were approximately $10,845.3, $11,218.6, $10,291.7, and $10,127.3 million in 1986, 1996, 2005, and 2015, respectively. The water supply, waste treatment, biodiversity protection, and recreation and cultural services were the four ecosystem services with the highest service value, contributing 77.05% of the total ecosystem services. The combined contribution rate of food production and raw material value was only about 4.02%, relatively small. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the estimated total ecosystem service value (ESV for this study area was relatively inelastic with respect to the value coefficients. The findings of this study will be crucial for maintaining the stability and sustainable development of the oasis region, where socio-economic development and the integrity of the natural ecosystem complement each other. Furthermore, the results provide a scientific basis for decision makers in land use management, and provide a reference for researchers in the Northwest China.

  11. Changes in ecosystem services associated with planting structures of cropland: A case study in Minle County in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaqun; Song, Wei; Mu, Fengyun

    2017-12-01

    The cropland ecosystem provides essential direct and indirect products and services to mankind such as food, fiber, biodiversity and soil conservation. A change of crop planting structure can change the ecosystem services of cropland by affecting land use type. In recent years, under the influence of regional comparative advantage and consumer demand changes, the crop planting structure in China has changed rapidly. However, there is still a lack of deep understanding on the effect of such a change in planting structure on the ecosystem services of cropland. Therefore, this research selected Minle County in the Heihe River Basin, which has small scattered croplands and a complex planting structure, as a study area. Based on the key time phase and optimal threshold of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data of the Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (TM/ETM+) images, this study used the decision tree algorithm to classify and extract the crop planting structure in Minle County in 2007 and 2012 and to analyze the changes in its temporal and spatial patterns. Then, the market value method was adopted to estimate the effect of the change in crop planting structure on the ecosystem services of the cropland. From 2007 to 2012, the planting area of corn and rapeseed in Minle County increased by 5.86 × 103 ha and 5.10 × 103 ha, respectively. Conversely, the planting area of wheat and barley was reduced by 3.26 × 103 ha and 6.34 × 103 ha, respectively. These changes directly caused the increase of the ecosystem services value of corn and rapeseed by 1062.82 × 104 USD and 842.54 × 104 USD, respectively. The resulting reduction in the ecosystem services value of wheat and barley was 488.24 × 104 USD and 828.29 × 104 USD, respectively. Besides, the total ecosystem services value of cropland increased by 1564.98 × 104 USD. Further analysis found that the change in the crop planting structure caused an increase in the ecosystem services

  12. Exploring Pacific Northwest ecosystem resilience: packaging climate change science for federal managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachelet, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is projected to jeopardize ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. Managing ecosystems for future resilience requires collaboration, innovation and communication. The abundance of data and documents describing the uncertainty around both climate change projections and impacts has become challenging to managers who have little funding and limited time to digest and incorporate these materials into planning and implementation documents. We worked with US Forest Service and BLM managers to help them develop vulnerability assessments and identify on-the-ground strategies to address climate change challenges on the federal lands in northwest Oregon (Siuslaw, Willamette and Mt. Hood National Forests; Eugene and Salem BLM Districts). We held workshops to promote dialogue about climate change, which were particularly effective in fostering discussions between the managers who often do not have the time to share their knowledge and compare experiences across administrative boundaries. We used the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework to identify measurable management objectives and rapidly assess local vulnerabilities. We used databasin.org to centralize usable information, including state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate projections, for the mandated assessments of vulnerability and resilience. We introduced participants to a decision support framework providing opportunities to develop more effective adaptation strategies. We built a special web page to hold the information gathered at the workshops and provide easy access to climate change information. We are now working with several Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) to design gateways - conservation atlases - to their relevant data repositories on databasin.org and working with them to develop web tools that can provide usable information for their own vulnerability assessments.

  13. Ecosystem-groundwater interactions under changing land uses: Linking water, salts, and carbon across central Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jobbagy, E. G.; Nosetto, M. D.; Santoni, C. S.; Jackson, R. B.

    2007-05-01

    Although most ecosystems display a one-way connection with groundwater based on the regulation of deep water drainage (recharge), this link can become reciprocal when the saturated zone is shallow and plants take up groundwater (discharge). In what context is the reciprocal link most likely? How is it affected by land use changes? Has it consequences on salt and carbon cycling? We examine these questions across a precipitation gradient in the Pampas and Espinal of Argentina focusing on three vegetation change situations (mean annual rainfall): afforestation of humid (900-1300 mm) and subhumid grassland (700-900 mm/yr of rainfall), annual cultivation of subhumid grasslands (700-800 mm/yr), and annual cultivation of semiarid forests (500-700 mm). Humid and subhumid grasslands have shallow (measurements. Groundwater contributions enhance carbon uptake in plantations compared to grasslands as suggested by aboveground biomass measurements and satellite vegetation indexes from sites with and without access to groundwater. Where rainfall is 15 m deep) and recharge under natural conditions is null. The establishment of crops, however, triggers the onset of recharge, as evidenced by vadose zones getting wetter and leached of atmospheric chloride. Cropping may cause water table raises leading to a two-way coupling of ecosystems and groundwater in the future, as it has been documented for similar settings in Australia and the Sahel. In the Pampas land use change interacts with groundwater consumption leading to higher carbon uptake (humid and subhumid grasslands) and salt accumulation (subhumid grasslands). In the Espinal (semiarid forest) land use change currently involves a one-way effect on groundwater recharge that may switch to a reciprocal connection if regional water table raises occur. Neglecting the role of groundwater in flat sedimentary plains can obscure our understanding of carbon and salt cycling and curtail our attempts to sustain soil and water resources under

  14. Burning fire-prone Mediterranean shrublands: immediate changes in soil microbial community structure and ecosystem functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goberna, M; García, C; Insam, H; Hernández, M T; Verdú, M

    2012-07-01

    Wildfires subject soil microbes to extreme temperatures and modify their physical and chemical habitat. This might immediately alter their community structure and ecosystem functions. We burned a fire-prone shrubland under controlled conditions to investigate (1) the fire-induced changes in the community structure of soil archaea, bacteria and fungi by analysing 16S or 18S rRNA gene amplicons separated through denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis; (2) the physical and chemical variables determining the immediate shifts in the microbial community structure; and (3) the microbial drivers of the change in ecosystem functions related to biogeochemical cycling. Prokaryotes and eukaryotes were structured by the local environment in pre-fire soils. Fire caused a significant shift in the microbial community structure, biomass C, respiration and soil hydrolases. One-day changes in bacterial and fungal community structure correlated to the rise in total organic C and NO(3)(-)-N caused by the combustion of plant residues. In the following week, bacterial communities shifted further forced by desiccation and increasing concentrations of macronutrients. Shifts in archaeal community structure were unrelated to any of the 18 environmental variables measured. Fire-induced changes in the community structure of bacteria, rather than archaea or fungi, were correlated to the enhanced microbial biomass, CO(2) production and hydrolysis of C and P organics. This is the first report on the combined effects of fire on the three biological domains in soils. We concluded that immediately after fire the biogeochemical cycling in Mediterranean shrublands becomes less conservative through the increased microbial biomass, activity and changes in the bacterial community structure.

  15. Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sturck, J.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verburg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two

  16. Emerging methods for the study of coastal ecosystem landscape structure and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, John C.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Purkis, Sam

    2013-01-01

    Coastal landscapes are heterogeneous, dynamic, and evolve over a range of time scales due to intertwined climatic, geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and meteorological processes, and are also heavily impacted by human development, commercial activities, and resource extraction. A diversity of complex coastal systems around the globe, spanning glaciated shorelines to tropical atolls, wetlands, and barrier islands are responding to multiple human and natural drivers. Interdisciplinary research based on remote-sensing observations linked to process studies and models is required to understand coastal ecosystem landscape structure and change. Moreover, new techniques for coastal mapping and monitoring are increasingly serving the needs of policy-makers and resource managers across local, regional, and national scales. Emerging remote-sensing methods associated with a diversity of instruments and platforms are a key enabling element of integrated coastal ecosystem studies. These investigations require both targeted and synoptic mapping, and involve the monitoring of formative processes such as hydrodynamics, sediment transport, erosion, accretion, flooding, habitat modification, land-cover change, and biogeochemical fluxes.

  17. Lake Ontario: Food web dynamics in a changing ecosystem (1970-2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, E.L.; Casselman, J.M.; Dermott, R.; Fitzsimons, J.D.; Gal, G.; Holeck, K. T.; Hoyle, J.A.; Johannsson, O.E.; Lantry, B.F.; Makarewicz, J.C.; Millard, E.S.; Munawar, I.F.; Munawar, M.; O'Gorman, R.; Owens, R.W.; Rudstam, L. G.; Schaner, T.; Stewart, T.J.

    2003-01-01

    We examined stressors that have led to profound ecological changes in the Lake Ontario ecosystem and its fish community since 1970. The most notable changes have been reductions in phosphorus loading, invasion by Dreissena spp., fisheries management through stocking of exotic salmonids and control of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), and fish harvest by anglers and double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). The response to these stressors has led to (i) declines in both algal photosynthesis and epilimnetic zooplankton production, (ii) decreases in alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) abundance, (iii) declines in native Diporeia and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), (iv) behavioral shifts in alewife spatial distribution benefitting native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) populations, (v) dramatic increases in water clarity, (vi) predation impacts by cormorants on select fish species, and (vii) lake trout recruitment bottlenecks associated with alewife-induced thiamine deficiency. We expect stressor responses associated with anthropogenic forces like exotic species invasions and global climate warming to continue to impact the Lake Ontario ecosystem in the future and recommend continuous long-term ecological studies to enhance scientific understanding and management of this important resource.

  18. Organic Carbon Sources and their Transfer in a Gulf of Mexico Coral Reef Ecosystem under River Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, C.; Carreón-Palau, L.; del Ángel-Rodríguez, J.; Perez-Espana, H.; Aguiniga-Garcıa, S.

    2016-02-01

    To assess the degree to which coral reefs in a marine protected area have been influenced by terrestrial and anthropogenic organic carbon inputs we used C and N stable isotopes and lipid biomarkers in the Coral Reef System of Veracruz in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A C and N stable isotope mixing model and a calculated fatty acid (FA) retention factor revealed the primary producer sources that fuel the coral reef food web. Then lipid classes, FA and sterol biomarkers determined production of terrestrial and marine biogenic material of nutritional quality to pelagic and benthic organisms. Finally, coprostanol determined pollutant loading from sewage in the suspended particulate matter. Results indicate that phytoplankton is the major source of essential FA for fish and that dietary energy from terrestrial sources such as mangroves are transferred to juvenile fish, while sea grass non-essential FA are transferred to the entire food web. Sea urchins may be the main consumers of brown macroalgae, while surgeon fish prefer red algae. C and N isotopic values and the C:N ratio suggest that fertilizer is the principal source of nitrogen to macroalgae. Thus nitrogen supply also favored phytoplankton and sea grass growth leading to a better nutritional condition and high retention of organic carbon in the food web members during the rainy season when river influence increases. However, the great star coral Montastrea cavernosa nutritional condition decreased significantly. The nearest river to the Reef System was polluted in the dry season; however, a dilution effect was detected in the rainy season, when some coral reefs were contaminated. In 2013, a new treatment plant started working in the area. We would suggest monitoring δ15N and the C: N ratio in macroalgae as indicators of the nitrogen input and coprostanol as an indicator of human feces pollution in order to verify the efficiency of the new treatment plant as part of the management program of the Reef System.

  19. Temporal changes in the distribution, methylation, and bioaccumulation of newly deposited mercury in an aquatic ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orihel, Diane M. [Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of Environment, Earth, and Resources, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N2 (Canada); Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N6 (Canada)], E-mail: orihel@ualberta.ca; Paterson, Michael J.; Blanchfield, Paul J.; Bodaly, R.A. [Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N6 (Canada); Gilmour, Cynthia C. [Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037 (United States); Hintelmann, Holger [Department of Chemistry, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario, K9J 7B8 (Canada)

    2008-07-15

    Our objective was to examine how the behavior of atmospheric mercury (Hg) deposited to boreal lake mesocosms changed over time. We added inorganic Hg enriched in a different stable isotope in each of two years, which allowed us to differentiate between Hg added in the first and second year. Although inorganic Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) continued to accumulate in sediments throughout the experiment, the availability of MeHg to the food web declined within one year. This decrease was detected in periphyton, zooplankton, and water mites, but not in gomphid larvae, amphipods, or fish. We suggest that reductions in atmospheric Hg deposition should lead to decreases in MeHg concentrations in biota, but that changes will be more easily detected in short-lived pelagic species than long-lived species associated with benthic food webs. - Mercury deposited to aquatic ecosystems becomes less available for uptake by biota over time.

  20. Long-term changes in soil pH across major forest ecosystems in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuanhe; Li, Pin; He, Honglin; Zhao, Xia; Datta, Arindam; Ma, Wenhong; Zhang, Ying; Liu, Xuejun; Han, Wenxuan; Wilson, Maxwell C.; Fang, Jingyun

    2015-02-01

    Atmospheric acidic deposition has been a major environmental problem since the industrial revolution. However, our understanding of the effect of acidic deposition on soil pH is inconclusive. Here we examined temporal variations in topsoil pH and their relationships with atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition across China's forests from the 1980s to the 2000s. To accomplish this goal, we conducted artificial neural network simulations using historical soil inventory data from the 1980s and a data set synthesized from literature published after 2000. Our results indicated that significant decreases in soil pH occurred in broadleaved forests, while minor changes were observed in coniferous and mixed coniferous and broadleaved forests. The magnitude of soil pH change was negatively correlated with atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition. This relationship highlights the need for stringent measures that reduce sulfur and nitrogen emissions so as to maintain ecosystem structure and function.

  1. Changes in canopy structure and ant assemblages affect soil ecosystem variables as a foundation species declines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kendrick, Joseph A.; Ribbons, Relena Rose; Classen, Aimee Taylor

    2015-01-01

    in ant species composition would interact to alter soil ecosystem variables. In the Harvard Forest Hemlock Removal Experiment (HF-HeRE), established in 2003, T. canadensis in large plots were killed in place or logged and removed to mimic adelgid infestation or salvage harvesting, respectively. In 2006...... (richness and abundance) of ants increases rapidly as T. canadensis is lost from the stands. Because ants live and forage at the litter-soil interface, we hypothesized that environmental changes caused by hemlock loss (e.g., increased light and warmth at the forest floor, increased soil pH) and shifts......, we built ant exclosure subplots within all of the canopy manipulation plots to examine direct and interactive effects of canopy change and ant assemblage composition on soil and litter variables. Throughout HF-HeRE, T. canadensis was colonized by the adelgid in 2009, and the infested trees are now...

  2. Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems — Emerging Research Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Paoletti

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Outcomes from the 22nd meeting for Specialists in Air Pollution Effects on Forest Ecosystems “Forests under Anthropogenic Pressure Effects of Air Pollution, Climate Change and Urban Development”, September 1016, 2006, Riverside, CA, are summarized. Tropospheric or ground-level ozone (O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major interest. Challenging issues are how to make O3 standards or critical levels more biologically based and at the same time practical for wide use; quantification of plant detoxification processes in flux modeling; inclusion of multiple environmental stresses in critical load determinations; new concept development for nitrogen saturation; interactions between air pollution, climate, and forest pests; effects of forest fire on air quality; the capacity of forests to sequester carbon under changing climatic conditions and coexposure to elevated levels of air pollutants; enhanced linkage between molecular biology, biochemistry, physiology, and morphological traits.

  3. Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

    2014-09-23

    Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

  4. Ballast water management that adapts to climate changes and reduces harmful bio-invasions in marine eco-systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard; Hansen, Mette Sanne

    2015-01-01

    food-webs and eco-systems. Economic impacts include reductions in fisheries production and algae blooms harmful for fish farms, tourism and human health. Due to the rising temperatures of the Oceans, organisms that prefer a warm climate may take roots in marine ecosystems that were previously too cold...... in marine ecosystem of changed factors in the shipping sector, for instance change of number, size, and design of vessels as well as treatment technologies of ballast water. New areas for shipping due to climate changes are also included. Our study would contribute to improve decision support tools, usable...... for them. In addition, future changes of temperature, storm patterns and sea-currents may also change shipping routes and ballast water management practices. Based on methods like stock taking, trend tracking and scenario modeling the paper aims to evaluate possible ecological and economic impacts...

  5. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Pren