WorldWideScience

Sample records for metropolitan population growth

  1. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  2. Exploitation of geospatial techniques for monitoring metropolitan population growth and classification of landcover features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almas, A.S.; Rahim, C.A.

    2006-01-01

    The present research relates to the exploitation of Remote Sensing and GIS techniques for studying the metropolitan expansion and land use/ landcover classification of Lahore, the second largest city of Pakistan where urbanization is taking place at a striking rate with inadequate development of the requisite infrastructure. Such sprawl gives rise to the congestion, pollution and commuting time issues. The metropolitan expansion, based on growth direction and distance from the city centre, was observed for a period of about thirty years. The classification of the complex spatial assemblage of urban environment and its expanding precincts was done using the temporally spaced satellite images geo-referenced to a common coordinate system and census data. Spatial categorization of urban landscape involving densely populated residential areas, sparsely inhibited regions, bare soil patches, water bodies, vegetation, Parks, and mixed features was done with the help of satellite images. Resultantly, remote sensing and GIS techniques were found very efficient and effective for studying the metropolitan growth patterns along with the classification of urban features into prominent categories. In addition, census data augments the usefulness of spatial techniques for carrying out such studies. (author)

  3. Shifting balances in U.S. metropolitan and nonmetropolitan area growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnick, D H

    1984-12-01

    "This paper assesses some of the recent attempts to explain the perceived growth reversal between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States during the 1970s. The paper argues that the reversal in population trends was not a one-time, radical shift in settlement trends, but rather the result of more continuous underlying industrial trends. Indeed, since 1979, population growth has again become faster in metropolitan than nonmetropolitan areas." The paper includes three sections. Regional and area population and industrial earnings growth patterns are first summarized for the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Theories of polarization and polar reversal are then evaluated and found to be inadequate. Finally, a reconstruction of the neoclassical model is proposed. excerpt

  4. The influence of population on the economic efficiency of the metropolitan governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy V. Pavlov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Research purpose. In order to implement the optimal metropolitan governance model, it is important to understand the conditions under which this or that model is economically effective. There is a need to develop a quantitatively justified methodology for choosing the optimal metropolitan governance model for different types of metropolitan areas. It has been emphasized in some federal documents of Russia, for example, in the “Recommendations for the selection of pilot projects for approbation and improvement of mechanisms for managing the development of metropolitan areas in the Russian Federation”.Materials and methods. Domestic researchers (N. Zubarevich, K. Gonchar, etc. and foreign researchers (Glaeser Edward L., Nakamura, Ciccone A., Hall R., etc. carried out the study of quantitative relationships between the economic growth of cities and the characteristics of cities.However, for metropolitan areas, the analysis of the relationship has not yet been implemented between the outpacing economic growth of the metropolitan area relative to the average country values (labor productivity and GDP per capita, the institutional factor (the type of metropolitan governance model, andthe non-institutional factor (population size. To identify the dependencies we are interested in, we used the OECD statistical database and OECD researches to identify the metropolitan governance model in the sample of metropolitan areas in the world. The sample in this research was 87 metropolitan areas in Europe and was divided into groups, depending on the population and the introduced metropolitan governance model. For each group, a correlation-regression analysis was performed and a weighted average was calculated from the indexes of the economic growth. As the leading index of the economic growth, labor productivity was used, as the final - GDP per capita. Then a comparison was made between the real value of economic growth in each surveyed metropolitan area and

  5. A REGIONAL APPROACH TO THE METROPOLITAN ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Teodor Boldeanu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to contribute to metropolitan economic growth literature by carrying out an analysis for 271 areas located in the EU between 2000 and 2013. For this objective the study uses several panel data estimation techniques, namely the GMM, System GMM and the QML estimation. To check the robustness of the results, the time period is divided in two (post and ante economic crisis and by splitting the sample of metropolitan regions in two components, the Western more developed regions and the Central and South-Eastern (the formal communist states, except for Cyprus areas. The results indicate that the industrial, construction and wholesale and retail trade sectors are positively linked with metropolitan growth. The agricultural, fishery and forestry sector is negatively influencing growth. The manufacturing and ITC sectors and migration are not statistically significant. Furthermore population density and size is more important than population growth and European enlargement did not have a substantial positive impact on metropolitan growth for the Central and South-Eastern regions.

  6. [Urban and population development of the city of Puebla and its metropolitan area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa Prieto, A

    1991-12-01

    Metropolitanization has been considered an important problem of regional development in developing countries. Attitudes toward the metropolis have been ambivalent in Latin America. On the 1 hand the metropolis is viewed as an obstacle to development that absorbs resources from the zone of influence and incurs high social costs of urbanization, but on the hand it is also viewed as a form of achieving levels of economic efficiency comparable to those of developed countries. Metropolitan areas should not be viewed as isolated, but rather as important points of demographic and manpower attraction, poles of economic growth and technological and cultural innovation. "Urban areas" and "metropolitan zones" are distinct ways of defining and delimiting urban phenomena. Although there is no consensus as to the exact definitions of these 2 urban units, it is generally accepted that the urban area is the city itself as well as the contiguous built up area reaching in all directions to the onset of nonurban land uses such as forests territorial extension that includes the politico-administrative units with urban characteristics such as work places and residences for nonagricultural workers, and that maintain constant and intense socioeconomic interrelations with the central city. The process of urban planning in the metropolitan zone of Puebla, Mexico, began in institutional form in 1980 with master plans for the population centers of Puebla, Amozoc, San Andres and San Pedro Cholula, and Zacatelco in the state of Tlaxcala. In 1987., an attempt was made by the governments of the states of Puebla and Tlaxcala to develop a plan for the metropolitan zone as a single unit. Population growth was greater within the city of Puebla than in the metropolitan zone from 1960-80, but after 1980 growth in the outlying areas exceeded that in the center city. The population density of the city of Puebla declined from 160/hectare in 1950 to 76/hectare in 1990, the result of progressive dispersion

  7. Population deconcentration in metropolitan Manila in the twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinner, W F; Bacol-montilla, M

    1981-10-01

    "The present analysis is intended to delineate the extent of population deconcentration through an examination of changes in core-periphery growth and density patterns within the Metropolitan Manila complex. Specifically, [the authors] examine changes in absolute and relative population growth and density levels in the central city of Manila, the inner suburban ring, and the outer suburban ring from 1903 to 1975. [The authors] also present a preliminary assessment of the demographic processes underlying the post-World War II trends." Data are from the 1975 Philippine census. excerpt

  8. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  9. Does environmental policy affect scaling laws between population and pollution? Evidence from American metropolitan areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Nicholas Z; Jha, Akshaya

    2017-01-01

    Modern cities are engines of production, innovation, and growth. However, urbanization also increases both local and global pollution from household consumption and firms' production. Do emissions change proportionately to city size or does pollution tend to outpace or lag urbanization? Do emissions scale differently with population versus economic growth or are emissions, population, and economic growth inextricably linked? How are the scaling relationships between emissions, population, and economic growth affected by environmental regulation? This paper examines the link between urbanization, economic growth and pollution using data from Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States between 1999 and 2011. We find that the emissions of local air pollution in these MSAs scale according to a ¾ power law with both population size and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the monetary damages from these local emissions scale linearly with both population and GDP. Counties that have previously been out of attainment with the local air quality standards set by the Clean Air Act show an entirely different relationship: local emissions scale according to the square root of population, while the monetary damages from local air pollution follow a 2/3rds power law with population. Counties out of attainment are subject to more stringent emission controls; we argue based on this that enforcement of the Clean Air Act induces sublinear scaling between emissions, damages, and city size. In contrast, we find that metropolitan GDP scales super-linearly with population in all MSAs regardless of attainment status. Summarizing, our findings suggest that environmental policy limits the adverse effects of urbanization without interfering with the productivity benefits that manifest in cities.

  10. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  11. Self-reported oral health of a metropolitan homeless population in Australia: comparisons with population-level data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, E J; Jamieson, L M; Steffens, M A; Cathro, P; Logan, R M

    2011-09-01

    There is limited information on self-perceived oral health of homeless populations. This study quantified self-reported oral health among a metropolitan homeless adult population and compared against a representative sample of the metropolitan adult population obtained from the National Survey of Adult Oral Health. A total of 248 homeless participants (age range 17-78 years, 79% male) completed a self-report questionnaire. Data for an age-matched, representative sample of metropolitan-dwelling adults were obtained from Australia's second National Survey of Adult Oral Health. Percentage responses and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, with non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals used to identify statistically significant differences between the two groups. Homeless adults reported poorer oral health than their age-matched general population counterparts. Twice as many homeless adults reported visiting a dentist more than a year ago and that their usual reason for dental attendance was for a dental problem. The proportion of homeless adults with a perceived need for fillings or extractions was also twice that of their age-matched general population counterparts. Three times as many homeless adults rated their oral health as 'fair' or 'poor'. A significantly greater proportion of homeless adults in an Australian metropolitan location reported poorer oral health compared with the general metropolitan adult population. © 2011 Australian Dental Association.

  12. Injuries to Aboriginal populations living on- and off-reserve in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in British Columbia, Canada: Incidence and trends, 1986-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Brussoni

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disparities in injury rates between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in British Columbia (BC are well established. Information regarding the influence of residence on disparities is scarce. We sought to fill these gaps by examining hospitalization rates for all injuries, unintentional injuries and intentional injuries across 24 years among i Aboriginal and total populations; ii populations living in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas; and iii Aboriginal populations living on- and off-reserve. Methods We used data spanning 1986 through 2010 from BC’s universal health care insurance plan, linked to vital statistics databases. Aboriginal people were identified by insurance premium group and birth and death record notations, and their residence was determined by postal code. “On-reserve” residence was established by postal code areas associated with an Indian reserve or settlement. Health Service Delivery Areas (HSDAs were classified as “metropolitan” if they contained a population of at least 100,000 with a density of 400 or more people per square kilometre. We calculated the crude hospitalization incidence rate and the Standardized Relative Risk (SRR of hospitalization due to injury standardizing by gender, 5-year age group, and HSDA. We assessed cumulative change in SRR over time as the relative change between the first and last years of the observation period. Results Aboriginal metropolitan populations living off-reserve had the lowest SRR of injury (2.0, but this was 2.3 times greater than the general British Columbia metropolitan population (0.86. For intentional injuries, Aboriginal populations living on-reserve in non-metropolitan areas were at 5.9 times greater risk than the total BC population. In general, the largest injury disparities were evident for Aboriginal non-metropolitan populations living on-reserve (SRR 3.0; 2.5 times greater than the general BC non-metropolitan population (1

  13. Comparison of daytime and night-time populations adjacent to interstate highways in metropolitan areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Daytime and night-time population densities bordering Interstate highway routes in metropolitan areas are compared at the traffic analysis zone level. In three of the metropolitan areas studied, histograms of daytime to night-time population density ratios are peaked at 1.0. In a smaller metropolitan area, the peak of the histogram moves to values greater than 1.0 but less than 2.0. In view of the typical uncertainties in calculating radiological transport effects (∼2), this study indicates that a distinction between daytime and night-time transport is not warranted, especially since a typical route includes extensive transport outside metropolitan areas. (author)

  14. [Population dynamics, urban structure, and production of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schteingart, M

    1989-01-01

    "In this article, an attempt is made to account for certain trends in the growth and distribution of the population, and in the structuring of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City.... Among the important conclusions of this essay are those having to do with the huge growth of some political-administrative units and the relation of this phenomenon to the practices followed by private realtors, often articulated with the policies and programs set by the State's housing agencies, as well as those that associate urban growth and expansion with the development of habitational spaces within the so-called 'formal' and 'informal' housing sectors." Data are from Mexican censuses and other official sources. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  15. Southern (DisComfort?: Latino Population Growth, Economic Integration and Spatial Assimilation in North Carolina Micropolitan Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-María González Wahl

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines more closely the growth and assimilation of the Latino population in non-metropolitan areas across North Carolina. More specifically, the analysis focuses on micropolitan areas. Based on the last decennial census, micropolitan areas were newly defined by the Census Bureau to reflect the growing importance of "urban clusters" located in non-metropolitan counties.

  16. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  17. Metropolitan Lima: area profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkert, R

    1986-11-01

    This profile of metropolitan Lima, Peru, covers administrative divisions; population growth; age distribution; ethnicity and religion; housing and households; education and health care; economic activity, income, and consumption; transport and communication; and sources of information. Nearly 30% of Peru's entire population and 42% of its urban population live in Lima. The trend continues, yet Lima's urban primacy is waning due to the growth of some regional centers like Trujillo and Chimbote. Lima is still almost 10 times as large as the country's next ranking cities, Trujillo on the northern coast and Arequipa in the south. Peru's main administrative divisions are the 24 departments, of which the Department of Lima is one. These departments are further divided into 156 provinces. Greater Lima consists of 2 such provinces, the province of Lima and the constitutional province of Callao. Although the population of Lima continues to grow, its rate of growth slowed from about 5.5% during the 1960s to about 3.9% in the 1970s. Current projections estimate a metropolitan population of 6.7 million by 1990. On the whole, Lima's age structure is somewhat older than that of the rest of Peru. The median age of the population is 22.3 years, compared to a national figure of 20.4. The proportion of persons over age 65 is only 3.6%, lower than the national average of 4.1%, due to the tendency of in-migration to concentrate people of intermediate ages in the cities. Almost 400,000 inhabitants of greater Lima are bilingual in Spanish and an indigenous language. As elsewhere in Peru, the dominant religion is Roman Catholicism. Lima is a spread out city with few high rise buildings due to the danger of earthquakes. Only 12% of Lima's households are found in apartment buildings. As in other cities of Latin America, the formal housing market is beyond the reach of a major segment of the population. Consequently, much of the urban settlement has occurred through informal self

  18. Small-town migration to metropolitan centres: a case in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee Boon Thong

    1979-12-01

    In Malaysia small towns are an important source of population gowth in metropolitan areas. To provide empirical evidence of the magnitude and roles of small urban centers as complementary sources of population growth in metropolitan areas, a small survey was conducted in 10 small towns in the State of Selangor. Criteria for the selection of these towns include a fair geographical spread over the State, and each area must characteristically possess a dominant urban center. The questionnaires were directed to the heads of 300 households with the intention of investigating the socioeconomic background of the households and the magnitude and characteristics of those members of the households who have migrated elsewhere. The total number of outmigrants from each area varied from 27-57, giving an overall average figure of 1.53 outmigrants/household. About 77% of the outmigrants had moved to the metropolitan centers. As the majority of the metropolitan migrants were more attracted to Kuala Lumpur, Klang, and Petaling Jaya, it may be assumed that the total outmigrants from small towns as derived would have consitituted about 39% of the population in the Klang Valley region. Based on this estimate, the role of small towns in metropolitan population growth is important. In the survey conducted, 2 broad categories of movements were involved: "economic movers," i.e., those who migrated to work or to establish businesses in the metropolitan areas; and "noneconomic movers," i.e., those who moved to continue their studies or to follow their spouses, and so forth. The economic mover stream made up 71% of the total metropolitan migrants. 2 variables--marital status and sex--were significantly related to the economic or noneconomic nature of the metropolitan migrants. The movement of males tended to be associated with economic motives whereas noneconomic reasons for movement tended to be the case among females migrants. The most important occupational group of the economically

  19. Washington DC Metropolitan Area Drug Study Homeless and Transient Population (DC-MADST-1991)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DC Metropolitan Area Drug Study (DCMADS) was conducted in 1991, and included special analyses of homeless and transient populations and of women delivering live...

  20. Washington DC Metropolitan Area Drug Study Household and Non-Household Populations (DC-MADSH-1991)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DC Metropolitan Area Drug Study (DCMADS) was conducted in 1991, and included special analyses of homeless and transient populations and of women delivering live...

  1. Green Infrastructure Concept for JABODETABEKJUR Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanuwidjaja, Gunawan; Gates Chang, Bill

    2017-07-01

    Sixty “Mega Cities” would emerge by 2015 catering of 600 million populations, and were threatened by the climate change, because of cyclones, flooding, etc. Jakarta became a metro region covering Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang, Bekasi, Depok and Cianjur. Jakarta metropolitan faced the very high population growth, urban sprawling, traffic jams, flooding, green open space reduction, environmental degradation, urban slums and illegal street hawkers. Flooding and traffic congestions were the two most important issues to solve. SWOT analysis and urban design solutions were produced to create a sustainable solution. Related to transportation issues, Singapore Mass Rapid Transport (MRT) concept was evaluated. Meanwhile the Netherlands’ polder concept as well as Singapore’s Integrated Water Management were also analyzed. The development of above ground MRT as well as Busway could be developed to connect Jakarta Metropolitan Region. The networks were developed on the main toll road networks. The MRT and Busway would eventually replace the need of automobile use in the future. The Transit - Oriented - Development (TOD) with high density can be suggested to be concentrated nearby the MRT and Busway interchange stations. The Netherlands’ polder and were adopted for urban’ low-lying lands in Jakarta Metropolitan Region, A polder system was defined as the Integrated Man-made Drainage System consisting Dikes, Drains, Retention Ponds, Outfall Structures or Pumping Stations. The polder system was proposed to be extended to Tangerang and Bekasi area.

  2. Influence of Intimate Partner Violence on Domestic Relocation in Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Young Australian Women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dillon, Gina; Hussain, Rafat; Kibele, Eva; Rahman, Saifur; Loxton, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Data from a national, population-based longitudinal study of Australian women (26-34 years) were analyzed to investigate the association between domestic relocation and multiple explanatory factors, namely intimate partner violence (IPV), metropolitan versus non-metropolitan residence, education,

  3. ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN A NORTHERN MEXICO METROPOLITAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas M. Fullerton

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Using an error correction framework, this study analyzes the long- and short-run dynamics of electricity demand in Ciudad Juarez, a large metropolitan economy on Mexico’s northern border. Demand is decomposed into the total number of electricity accounts and electricity usage per customer, each of which is modeled separately. A two-stage least squares approach is used to estimate the per customer electricity demand equations due to the endogeneity of the average price variable. The results indicate sustained growth in population, employment, and income can be expected to exert substantial upward pressure on regional electric power demand. Furthermore, demand is found to be price-inelastic in this metropolitan area, suggesting that rate increases can help raise the revenues necessary to fund expansion of the electrical grid.

  4. Pent-up demand for surgery in the Manaus metropolitan region: A population-based cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Priscila Gusmão da Silva; Galvao, Tais Freire; Silva, Marcus Tolentino

    2017-08-01

    Waiting lines in healthcare reflect an imbalance between the availability and the demand for medical services. This study aimed to analyze the prevalence and factors associated with the pent-up demand for surgical procedures in the Manaus metropolitan region.We performed a population-based cross-sectional study in 2015. Pent-up demand was based on self-report by the participants; those who reported waiting were contacted by phone to clarify the nature and reasons for the experienced delay.We interviewed 4001 adults in their households. The pent-up demand for surgical procedures in the Manaus metropolitan region was 14% (95% confidence interval: 13-15%). The surgical specialties with the highest demand included orthopedics (18.1%), gynecology (17.0%), ophthalmology (12.4%), neurosurgery (10.8%), and general surgery (10.2%). The main reason for not accessing services was their lack of availability in the public health system, leading some patients to pay for procedures in private facilities. The populations most affected by pent-up demand included elderly individuals, women, and housewives.Pent-up demand for surgical procedures is a common problem in the Manaus metropolitan region and thus requires coordinated actions to optimize access to and capacity of the healthcare system.

  5. Simulating Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  6. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  7. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  8. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  9. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region with reference studies from Europe and the USA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  10. Population Growth and National Population Policy of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.

    2008-01-01

    The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.

  11. URBANIZATION AND SPATIAL CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS IN MONTERREY METROPOLITAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Acharya

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper tries to explore the process of urbanization and spatial changes in demographic features in the Monterrey Metropolitan Region (MMR, Mexico. This city is the third largest urban sector in Mexico which has around 4 million population. It is also the industrial and economic capital of the country. The present study found that rapid urbanization in the metropolitan region has a close association with process of industrialization. In population distribution and composition, study found that the metropolitan region had its “demographic transition” during the years seventies and currently the region is taking advantages of demographic bonus cohort, i.e. a higher concentration of population in economic active groups compare to children and old age population. However, this paper indentified a higher imbalance in metropolitan demographic scenario. On the one hand, there is di-populization in the city center region and in other there is a steady increment of population in peri-urban region.

  12. Rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

  13. O deslocamento da população brasileira para as metrópoles The displacement of the Brazilian population to the metropolitan areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fausto Brito

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available O OBJETIVO deste artigo é analisar a urbanização no Brasil, na segunda metade do século XX, lembrando que somente o Censo de 1970 registrou uma população urbana que superou a rural. Essa recente e acelerada urbanização, em razão da intensa migração interna, fez coincidir a concentração da população urbana nas grandes cidades, assim como nas principais metrópoles brasileiras. Essas últimas, nas duas últimas décadas, têm reduzido as suas taxas de crescimento populacional, não só em razão do declínio generalizado das taxas de fecundidade, mas, principalmente, como conseqüência da redução do número dos seus imigrantes. O saldo migratório negativo do aglomerado metropolitano de São Paulo, entre 1995-2000, é um expressivo exemplo. Contudo, apesar de o país ter se distanciado de uma hipermetroplização, vale a pena sublinhar que, em 2000, mais de 40% da população urbana brasileira ainda residia nessas metrópoles.THE AIM of this article is the analysis of the Brazilian urbanization process during the second half of the 20th century. For this purpose it is important to take note that the 1970 Demographic Census indicated that the urban population had surpassed the rural population for the first time. The rapid contemporary urbanization due to intense internal migration concentrated the urban population in the larger Brazilian cities and metropolitan areas. During the last two decades, however, the growth rates of the larger cities has declined due to lower fertility rates and, more importantly, decreasing number of immigrants. Indeed, the metropolitan area of São Paulo, for example, presented negative net migration for the 1995-2000 period. Although internal migration trends do not point to a process of "hipermetropolitanization", it must be taken into account that as of 2000 40% of the country’s urban population still inhabited the larger metropolitan areas.

  14. African urbanization in metropolitan South Africa--differential urbanization perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, H S

    1993-07-01

    "As a potentially important urban development policy consideration, attention is focused in this paper on differential urbanization trends in South Africa at the metropolitan level. Recent informal urban settlement patterns of the African population within the major metropolitan areas are contrasted against these differential urbanization trends to determine the implications of both for residential development in the metropolitan areas during the post-apartheid era." excerpt

  15. Modeling Metropolitan Detroit transit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    "The seven-county Southeast Michigan region, that encompasses the Detroit Metropolitan Area, : ranks fifth in population among top 25 regions in the nation. It also ranks among bottom five in : the transit service provided, measured in miles or hours...

  16. Deprivation and mortality in non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessop, E G

    1996-10-01

    To test the hypothesis that the relationship between deprivation and mortality is weaker among residents of non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales than among residents of metropolitan areas. This study compared mortality, expressed as standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), in residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan districts at three levels of deprivation classified by an electoral ward deprivation score and by home and car ownership. SMRs were computed for all causes of death, for bronchitis and asthma (ICD9 codes 490-493), and for accident, violence, and poisoning (ICD9 codes 800-999). England and Wales. Members of the longitudinal study of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, a quasi-random 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. There was an association between deprivation and mortality which was clear for all cause mortality, more noticeable for respiratory disease, and less clear for deaths from accident, violence, and poison. In general, the results showed a remarkable similarity between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This study does not support the hypothesis that the relationship between mortality and deprivation differs between residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

  17. Transport scenarios in two metropolitan cities in India: Delhi and Mumbai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Anjana; Parikh, Jyoti

    2004-01-01

    With rising population and increasing migration to the cities, it is expected that the urban population will increase and many more metropolitan cities will arise. Urban transport will also increase due to the high growth in population, travel demand and vehicles. In this paper, we look at the growth in vehicles and travel demand up to 2020, assuming business as usual, high GDP growth and low GDP growth scenarios for Mumbai and Delhi assuming a certain population growth. The consequent energy needs and local and global environment implications are studied. The case studies demonstrate that despite similar population and higher per capita GDP, due to the higher share of public bus transport and suburban railway system, the Mumbai transport results in 60% less energy and emissions compared to Delhi. This picture may change in the future with the introduction of metro in Delhi, but basic differences remain even in 2020, perhaps also due to the different urban design. The vehicle stock increases nearly three times in both cities in 23 years due to the increase in population, migration and economic growth. However, the vehicle ownership per 1000 persons only doubles and is far lower in 2020, even compared to the present world average ownership. Emissions, however, do not rise as much due to the introduction of more efficient vehicles and fuels, such as CNG or battery operated vehicles. The high share of public transport also helps. The effects of various policies, such as urban design, suburban railway system, transport management, control practices, etc. are very important

  18. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  19. The influence of coyotes on an urban Canada goose population in the Chicago metropolitan area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Justin L.; /Ohio State U.

    2007-01-01

    between pre-nesting and nesting seasons (P=0.72) were similar, while between post-nesting and nesting seasons there was a nearly significant difference (P=0.07). The insignificant change in habitat use across seasons suggests that coyotes did not switch habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. Alternatively, the change in ranking of buffer habitat across seasons suggests that coyotes may have switched habitat use to take advantage of goose nests. The results are not clear as large individual variation between coyotes due to differences in habitat availability, and social status interfere with the results of the analysis. Even though I failed to find strong support for coyotes actively hunting goose nests, they nevertheless were the primary nest predator in the area and may influence Canada goose populations. To determine the potential influence of coyotes on the Canada goose population, I created a Canada goose matrix population model that included variables such as coyote predation on adults and nests as well as coyote influence on nest desertion. Using the base population model I calculated the Canada goose population to be increasing with {lambda} = 1.055. The removal of all coyote influence on the goose population would allow {lambda} to increase to 1.214. Nest predation was the most important factor related to coyotes: the removal of coyote nest predation from the model resulted in a population growth rate {lambda} = 1.157. Modeling results suggest coyotes are serving as a limiting factor for the Canada goose population within the Chicago metropolitan area.

  20. Population growth and consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkley, K

    1997-04-01

    The relationship between population growth, resource consumption, and environmental degradation is complex. The rise in "greenhouse gases" that will cause climatic change is clearly due to human activity, and pollutants are often concentrated in densely populated areas. However, even an area with a negative population growth, such as Russia, can experience severe environmental degradation due to poor management. Consumption patterns have the most effect on ozone depletion, while population growth threatens biodiversity of and within species through the destruction of ecosystems. Migration joins population growth and social factors, such as land inequality, as major causes of deforestation, and global demand for water is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth. Coastal development and over-fishing threaten to deplete the oceans, while soil quality is threatened by inappropriate land use. Estimates of the earth's carrying capacity range from less than 3 billion to more than 44 billion people, indicating how difficult it is to assess this figure. Development efforts throughout the world may lead to human gains that will ultimately be negated by environmental losses. These factors have led to growing support for environmentally sustainable development.

  1. Perspectives on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-09-01

    Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

  2. Comparison of Daytime and Nighttime Populations Adjacent to Interstate Highways in Metropolitan Areas Using LandScan USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Paul E

    2007-01-01

    An article of similar title was published in the International Journal of Radioactive Materials Transport in 1999. The study concluded that the daytime and nighttime populations are not substantially different for the metropolitan areas examined. This study revisits the issue, but using the LandScan USA high resolution population distribution data, which includes daytime and night-time population. Segments of Interstate highway beltways, along with the direct route through the city, for Atlanta, St. Louis, and Kansas City are examined with an 800m buffer from either side of the highways. The day/night ratio of population is higher using the LandScan USA data. LandScan USA daytime and night-time data will be incorporated into the TRAGIS routing model in future

  3. Polycentric Development for Sustainable Cities: An Evaluation for the Ankara Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Aydan Sat

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Urban population growth and the accompanying urban growth and expansion are seen as the main problems of metropolitan cities; this keeps the issues of how to consider the social, economic, spatial and environmental dimensions of cities within the framework of a concept of sustainability, and how to shape cities within this context, on the agenda. In today’s world, cities are accepted as the main hubs of energy consumption and environmental pollution, as centers of capital, culture and innovation, and as the places of residence of millions of people. Expanding and sprawling urban forms are seen as unsustainable in terms of land use, energy and the consumption of environmental resources. Thus, the question ‘How should the urban development model be applied to create sustainable cities?’ is on the agenda of theorists, politicians and practitioners alike. Taking these discussions into consideration, this study searches for an answer to the question of whether the polycentric urban development model can be used as a tool for sustainable cities by taking into account the current literature and practices, and evaluating the case of the Ankara metropolitan area.

  4. Population growth, poverty and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibirige, J S

    1997-07-01

    One of the most popular explanations for the many problems that face Africa is population growth. Africa's population has doubled since 1960. Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world and the rate of population growth is higher than in any other region. At the same time, Africa faces a social and economic situation that is viewed by many as alarming. Among the problems that devastate Africa is that of persistent poor health. Africa has lower life expectancy, higher mortality rates and is affected by more disease and illness conditions than any other region. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this paper examines the relationship between population growth, poverty and poor health. While most analyses have focused on population growth as an original cause of poverty and underdevelopment, this paper argues that while both population growth and poor health play a significant role in exacerbating the problem of poverty, they are themselves primary consequences of poverty rather than its cause.

  5. Metropolitan planning from an international comparative perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galland, Daniel; Grønning, Marius

    2016-01-01

    policies, and thus also to the instrumental orientation within planning. A challenge stemming from this comparison is to understand how similar policies are implemented at a strategic and metropolitan level. Within the institutional framework of Copenhagen, the problem with the Finger Plan directive might...... (Faludi & van der Valk, 1994), thus integrating the archetypal land-use character of municipal plans and the strategic and growth-oriented pursuit of regional plans. A number of questions may be deduced: How explicit is the metropolitan scale? How local and how regional is the knowledge basis? Within......Over the last few years new practices of spatial strategy making at different planning scales have emerged. At the metropolitan level, such spatial strategies are reminiscent of national and supranational competitive strategies (e.g. EU policies) as well as ratifications of international...

  6. Metropolization Process for enhancing local and regional planning : an experience of cirebon metropolitan, West Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supriyadi Rustidja, E.

    2018-03-01

    Metropolitan develops in line with resource utilization, investment, and transactions of regional activities. Metropolization of an area gives emerge urban economy that changes the situation, form, and pattern of urban space interactions. On the other hand, metropolism concerns the strategy of changing variation of urban space, so that metropolitan invasion not only form of urban space but also the process of interaction among stakeholders in developing metropolitan area. Based on participatory research, this article explores metropolitan invasion process for enhancing local and regional planning, both indigenous and intrusive cataclysmic. The study find that the primeval, rural, and urban as elemental environment must be considered in developing metropolitan, not merely form the structure and pattern of urban space. The metropolization process also requires the strategic of rural urban linkage, context setting and local assessment, strategic community investment, and interculturalist approach. The other findings of the study show that metropolization in Cirebon Metropolitan, West Java emphasizing on promotion of competitiveness strategy, value chain urban activities, and networking of urban areas. Cirebon Metropolitan must promote the realization of growth centers and connect the interregional activities of metropolitan area for providing sustainable economic growth.

  7. Efficient Metropolitan Resource Allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Arnott

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Over the past 30 years Calgary has doubled in size, from a population of 640,645 in 1985 to 1,230,915 in 2015. During that time the City has had five different mayors, hosted the Winter Olympics, and expanded the C-Train from 25 platforms to 45. Calgary’s Metropolitan Area has grown too, with Airdrie, Chestermere, Okotoks and Cochrane growing into full-fledged cities, ripe with inter-urban commuters.* And with changes to provincial legislation in the mid-’90s, rural Rocky View County and the Municipal District of Foothills are now real competitors for residential, commercial and industrial development that in the past would have been considered urban. In this metropolitan system, where people live, their household structure, and their place of work informs the services they need to conduct their daily lives, and directly impacts the spatial character of the City and the broader region. In sum, Metropolitan Calgary is increasingly complex. Calgary and the broader metropolitan area will continue to grow, even with the current economic slowdown. Frictions within Calgary, between the various municipalities in the metropolitan area, and the priorities of other local authorities (such as the School Boards and Alberta Health Services will continue to impact the agendas of local politicians and their ability to answer to the needs of their residents. How resources – whether it is hard infrastructure, affordable housing, classrooms, or hospital beds – are allocated over space and how these resources are funded, directly impacts these relationships. This technical paper provides my perspective as an urban economist on the efficient allocation of resources within a metropolitan system in general, with reference to Calgary where appropriate, and serves as a companion to the previously released “Reflections on Calgary’s Spatial Structure: An Urban Economists Critique of Municipal Planning in Calgary.” It is hoped that the concepts reviewed

  8. City Population Growth and Economic Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

    2008-01-01

    This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...... of networks choose a tool (project, policy) to implement in the city, success will be more likely. Furthermore, virtuous circles will arise. The author gives an overview of two historical cases in urban growth, in Europe (1200-1800) and the U.S.A. (1800 to today)....

  9. On population growth near protected areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas N Joppa

    Full Text Available Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity.Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers.Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.'s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.

  10. Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarti, A. K.

    1976-01-01

    An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

  11. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  12. POPULATION MOBILITY CHARACTERISTIC: NOTES FROM THE URBAN-URBAN INTERACTION IN SEMARANG METROPOLITAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARDHOTILLAH Santi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid growth of cities is characterized by the "pressure" in the form of increasingly dense urban areas, slums, traffic congestion, unemployment in the cities, and the number of illegal housing in the suburbs. This issue demonstrates the need for a balance between urban and rural areas. The balance is obtained through the interaction, and the interaction there is a process of "transfer" in the form of the human population, natural resources, and other supporting components. This view of the phenomenon makes many researchers conducting various studies in the context of the interaction between rural and urban. Furthermore, the study of the interaction of cities such as Salatiga and Semarang are in fact joined in the same region, KSN Kedungsepur. Semarang and surrounding developments as Semarang Metropolitan Region (SMR are the main attraction for the people who are around Semarang that caused an increase in the spatial interactions between Semarang and surrounding areas. From some areas belonging to KSN Kedungsepur, there are only two areas with the status of the city of Semarang city as a centre of KSN and Salatiga. This becomes interesting, unique conditions for studying the phenomenon under study is the interaction of the cities. The method used in this research was a quantitative method with descriptive analysis. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey technique primary by taking a random sample of migrants from Salatiga City and studied at the city of Semarang. The results of the study there were four mobility characteristics formed between Salatiga and Semarang, namely, commuting-boarding, boarding-commuting, boarding and boarding-permanent.

  13. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  14. Population growth changes targets for immunization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

    1995-01-01

    The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

  15. The Settlements Growth in Mijen District, Suburb of Semarang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigawati, B.; Yuliastuti, N.; Mardiansjah, F. H.

    2018-02-01

    Semarang is one of metropolitan cities in Indonesia. As common in metropolitan cities, Semarang has problems regarding the availability of urban space, especially for settlements. This is related to the increase of population in Semarang. The selection of settlements should consider the suitability of space usage. This study aimed to analyze the growth of Semarang settlements in 2006-2015, distribution patterns, characteristics, directions and factors affecting growth. The location of the research is Mijen District located in Suburb of Semarang. This research used a quantitative descriptive spatial approach by using remote sensing technique and Geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that some of the growth sites of settlements in Mijen District, the suburb of Semarang are located in areas which not suitable for settlements. There are several types of settlement patterns in Mijen District. Accessibility is the major factor driving the growth of settlements. An integrated development policy is needed to maintain a sustainable balance of urban settlement development.

  16. Causes of informal settlements in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality: An exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noah K. Marutlulle

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to explore the causes of informal settlements in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality (EMM. The article strongly challenges the view that the cause of informal settlements in EMM and other parts of South Africa is predominantly the apartheid government and agrees with literature which provides evidence that to a larger extent, the present government, not the apartheid government, is one of the dominant causes of informal settlements. The article further establishes a common and fertile ground for the convergence of the different views and perspectives into variables which, in addition to the present government, include population growth, government economic policies, economic variables, housing shortage, unavailability of land and unaffordability as the real causes of informal settlements in EMM.

  17. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  18. Revenues for Education in Metropolitan Areas. Chapter VI, Metropolitanism: Its Challenge to Education, 1968. Sixty-seventh Yearbook, Part I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkin, Marvin C.

    For local school districts to provide equal educational opportunities throughout a metropolitan area, a school organization plan should distribute populations among districts in such a manner as to maximize the aggregate expressed demand for educational services and to provide relatively equal financial support. Consolidation of contiguous…

  19. Management of groundwater in urban centers: A case study; Greater Dammam Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abderrahman, Walid A.; Elamin, Abdalla S.; Al-Harazin, Ibrahim M.; Eqnaibi, Badie S.

    2007-01-01

    Effective management of groundwater resources in urban centers of arid regions is vital for sustainable development and groundwater protection especially with rapid growth of water demands under water stress conditions. Greater Dammam Metropolitan Area is a good example of rapid growing urban center due to comprehensive development and population growth. The water demand has increased by many times during the last three decades. Groundwater from local aquifers namely Dammam and Umm Er Radhuma, supplies more than 85% of the total water demands. The aquifers have been subjected to extensive and increasing groundwater pumping especially during last three decades. Negative impacts such as significant decline in water levels have been experienced in the area. A new groundwater management scheme in terms of improving the long-term water pumping policies is required for protection of the aquifers groundwater productivity. A special numerical simulation model of the multi-aquifer system including Dammam and Umm Er Radhuma aquifers has been developed to assess the behavior of the aquifer system under long term water stresses in Dammam Metropolitan Area. The developed numerical simulation model has been utilized to predict the responses of the aquifer system in terms of decline in terms of water level under different pumping schemes from the two aquifers during the next 30 years. The model results have postulated the importance of Umm Er Radhuma (UER) aquifer as a major water supply source to Dammam Metropolitan Area, as well as potential recharge source of more than 30% of the total water pumped from Dammam aquifer. These findings have been utilized in improving present and future groundwater management and conservation for the study area. Similar techniques can be used to improve the groundwater management in other parts of the country as well as other arid regions. (author)

  20. Spatial clustering of knowledge-based industries in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Eduardo Chica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The central locations of metropolitan areas have some specific attributes, leading to an accumulation of large knowledge exchanges and extensive knowledge externalities, which encourage the concentration of various economic activities, especially knowledge-based industries (KBI. Other agglomeration economies found in metropolitan areas – such as telecommunications and transport infrastructures connected to global productive circuits and complementary labour markets – are key factors for KBI employment growth. This paper explores the Helsinki Metropolitan Area’s (HMA spatial clustering of KBI at the sub-district level, and the role played by agglomeration economies (both specialization and diversity economies in fostering this process. The results reveal that KBI employment shows patterns of concentration in the core and adjacent areas. The specialization and diversity economies found in the metropolitan core and the specialization economies found in others areas lead to KBI spatial clustering in the HMA. Public policies regarding the promotion of science parks have also played a decisive role.

  1. The design of gated communities in São Paulo metropolitan area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Rett Lemos

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper has as study object the formation of a kind of residential urban landscape spread in a large number of Brazilian cities, in special those around the Sao Paulo metropolitan area: the gated communities destined to a population with average and high income. The premise that it deals with a type of appropriation of urban ground related since the middle of the 1970‘s when internal adjustments in real estate market were implemented, and to the standards of growth of the São Paulo metropolitan area, specifically its process of dispersion, excites the necessity of identify the characteristics and specially the effects to the rest of the urban space that are been spread in terms never seen. Twenty eight enterprises launched between 1994 and 2005 in the metropolitan area are analyzed. The set of case studies involves from communities settled in the rural zones to the urban areas; in common is the fact that are enterprises created by a private entrepreneur to subdivide an only one private property, and the management of the internal space by proper codes. The analysis was developed in two scales: at a first moment, it was restricted in the internal spaces, appointing the planning methods and the distribution standards of the open areas, the volumetric occupations, and the leisure equipments; in the following one, were analyzed the neighbor landscape, identifying the main characteristics of the fabric urban and the not constructed natural environment.

  2. Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Charlotte T; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2008-06-01

    We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

  3. MPLS for metropolitan area networks

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Nam-Kee

    2004-01-01

    METROPOLITAN AREA NETWORKS AND MPLSRequirements of Metropolitan Area Network ServicesMetropolitan Area Network OverviewThe Bandwidth DemandThe Metro Service Provider's Business ApproachesThe Emerging Metro Customer Expectations and NeedsSome Prevailing Metro Service OpportunitiesService Aspects and RequirementsRoles of MPLS in Metropolitan Area NetworksMPLS PrimerMPLS ApplicationsTRAFFIC ENGINEERING ASPECTS OF METROPOLITAN AREA NETWORKSTraffic Engineering ConceptsNetwork CongestionHyper Aggregation ProblemEasing CongestionNetwork ControlTactical versus Strategic Traffic EngineeringIP/ATM Overl

  4. Perceived stigmatization and discrimination of people with mental illness: A survey-based study of the general population in five metropolitan cities in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böge, Kerem; Zieger, Aron; Mungee, Aditya; Tandon, Abhinav; Fuchs, Lukas Marian; Schomerus, Georg; Tam Ta, Thi Minh; Dettling, Michael; Bajbouj, Malek; Angermeyer, Matthias; Hahn, Eric

    2018-01-01

    Background: India faces a significant gap between the prevalence of mental illness among the population and the availability and effectiveness of mental health care in providing adequate treatment. This discrepancy results in structural stigma toward mental illness which in turn is one of the main reasons for a persistence of the treatment gap, whereas societal factors such as religion, education, and family structures play critical roles. This survey-based study investigates perceived stigma toward mental illness in five metropolitan cities in India and explores the roles of relevant sociodemographic factors. Materials and Methods: Samples were collected in five metropolitan cities in India including Chennai (n = 166), Kolkata (n = 158), Hyderabad (n = 139), Lucknow (n = 183), and Mumbai (n = 278). Stratified quota sampling was used to match the general population concerning age, gender, and religion. Further, sociodemographic variables such as educational attainment and strength of religious beliefs were included in the statistical analysis. Results: Participants displayed overall high levels of perceived stigma. Multiple linear regression analysis found a significant effect of gender (P mental illness. PMID:29736059

  5. Decomposition of Net CO2 Emission in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area of Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Policy-makers have been sharing growing concerns that climate change has significant impacts on human society and economic activates. Knowledge of the influencing factors of CO2 emission is the crucial step to reduce it. In this paper, both CO2 emission and CO2 sink on a city-level of the nine cities in Wuhan Metropolitan Area are calculated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approach. Moreover, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI model was employed to decompose the net CO2 emission from 2001 to 2009. Results showed that (1 the largest amount of CO2 emission comes from energy while the largest amount CO2 sink comes from cropland; (2 economic level (S was the largest positive driving factor for net CO2 emission growth in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, population (P also played a positive driving role, but with very weak contribution; and as negative inhibiting factors, energy structure (E and energy efficiency (C significantly reduced the net CO2 emission.

  6. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  7. Spatial variations in US poverty: beyond metropolitan and non-metropolitan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Man; Kleit, Rachel Garshick; Cover, Jane; Fowler, Christopher S

    2012-01-01

    Because poverty in rural and urban areas of the US often has different causes, correlates and solutions, effective anti-poverty policies depend on a thorough understanding of the ruralness or urbanness of specific places. This paper compares several widely used classification schemes and the varying magnitudes of poverty that they reveal in the US. The commonly used ‘metropolitan/non-metropolitan’ distinction obscures important socioeconomic differences among metropolitan areas, making our understanding of the geography of poverty imprecise. Given the number and concentration of poor people living in mixed-rural and rural counties in metropolitan regions, researchers and policy-makers need to pay more nuanced attention to the opportunities and constraints such individuals face. A cross-classification of the Office of Management and Budget’s metro system with a nuanced RUDC scheme is the most effective for revealing the geographical complexities of poverty within metropolitan areas.

  8. Political economy of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  9. Population growth and its implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badii, M. H.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

  10. Engaging with sustainability issues in metropolitan Chennai

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kennedy, L.; Varrel, A.; Denis, E.; Dupont, V.; Dhanalakshmi, R.; Roumeau, S.; Baud, I.; Pfeffer, K.; Sridharan, N.; Vijayabaskar, M.; Suresh Babu, M.; Seifelislam, A.; Rouanet, H.; Saharan, T.

    2014-01-01

    Chennai is the largest metropolitan city in South India (8.7 million in 2011) and the provincial capital of the large state of Tamil Nadu (population 72 million in 2011). Before that, under British rule, the city was the capital of the Madras Presidency, and was known as Madras until 1996, when the

  11. The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

    2018-02-01

    Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying

  12. Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2012-05-01

    The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

  13. Food insecurity, a determinant of obesity? - an analysis from a population-based survey in the Paris metropolitan area, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Fernandez, Judith; Caillavet, France; Lhuissier, Anne; Chauvin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between food insecurity and obesity is discussed in the literature. The objective of this study was to determine whether food insecurity and obesity were associated in the Paris metropolitan area. We used data from third wave of the Health, Inequalities and Social Ruptures (SIRS) cohort study, a longitudinal population-based, representative health and socioepidemiological survey of the general population in the Paris metropolitan area. The participants' BMI (calculated using self-reported height and weight) was analyzed as a continuous variable, and a dichotomous variable (BMI Food insecurity was estimated using the Household Food Security Scale Module (HFSSM) and was treated as a trichotomous variable (food security / low food security / very low food security). Multilevel models were estimated for men and women separately. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) prevalence was 10.2%. The determinant of obesity differs according to gender. After adjustment for age, income and the sociooccupational group, very low food security was associated with obesity in women (OR = 2.01, 95%CI 1.05-3.82), and women with very low food security had a higher BMI (Coef. = 1.78, 95% CI 0.24-3.31). This association, however, was not significant for men (OR = 1.84, 95%CI 0.64-5.30). In times of economic crisis, it is increasingly essential to explore and understand the pathway through which very low food security is linked to obesity.

  14. Regional differences in commuting activities of inhabitants in the Tokyo metropolitan suburb

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki Kawase

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to elucidate gender differences and regional differences of co-mmuting activities by inhabitants in Japanese metropolitan suburbs. I found the different parts by districts in the metropolitan suburb. Regional factors cause gender differences in commuting activities and result in regional differences: In residential areas, inhabitants who work in metropolitan centers occupy much of the population. In older built-up areas, there are many “local” persons. In rural areas, motorization is progressing because access to rail-roads has been inconvenient. These regional factors influence the behavioral characteristics of commuting by married men, married women, never married men and never married women.

  15. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pregnant diabetic population using population-based growth charts and customised growth charts. Methods. ... Of the patients, 44 had type 1, 66 type 2 and 173 gestational diabetes. The growth of .... with diabetic ketoacidosis, of whom one.

  16. Morphometric analysis of the mandible in the Durban Metropolitan population of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishwarkumar, S; Pillay, P; Haffajee, M R; Satyapal, K S

    2017-01-01

    The identification of an individual from skeletal remains plays a vital role in forensic investigation as it is essential for the identification of the individual's age, sex, and/or race and further analysis. Skeletal characteristics differ from one population group to another since population-specific osteometric standards exist for sex determination. Since the mandible is the largest, strongest and most durable compact facial bone, it is the best preserved after death. While sexual dimorphism of the mandible is indicated by its shape and size, morphometric analysis is more accurate in the determination of sex from the skull. The aim of this study was to evaluate the morphometric parameters of the mandible in the Durban Metropolitan population. Various morphometric parameters of the mandible were measured and assessed in 265 digital panoramic radiographs aged between 16 and 30 years (n = 530). Each parameter recorded was statistically analysed using SPSS to determine if a relationship existed between the parameter, and sex and age. In this study the morphometric parameters of the male mandibles were greater than that of the females. This concurred with the findings of previous studies. The length of the mandibular ramus on the right and left sides was statistically significant with sex. This correlated with previous studies, indicating that the length of the mandibular ramus generally has higher sexual dimorphism than any other morphometric mandibular parameter (p = 0.000). However, only the length of the right mandibular body was statistically significant when compared with sex (p = 0.040). The findings of this study may assist forensic investigators, anatomists, anthropologists and maxillo-facial surgeons.

  17. Perceptions of Medicinal Plant Use Amongst the Hispanic Population in the St. Louis Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim M. Grafford

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Medicinal plant use in the United States has increased as reported by the National Center of Complementary and Integrative Health and U.S. Census Bureau.However, little is known about how many minority groups in the United States use medicinal plants.There is a rise in the Hispanic population; a community with a steep tradition of medicinal plant use, in the U.S., so understanding the perceptions of medicinal plant use is useful to healthcare providers. Methods: A survey was designed to gauge a better understanding of the perceptions of medicinal plant use amongst Latino patients with varying education levels who reside in the St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Survey questions highlighted the perceptions of medicinal plants use, patient communication regarding medicinal plant use with healthcare providers (pharmacists and doctors, and the impact the education level has on medicinal plant use. Results: Surveys were distributed to six different investigational sites around the St. Louis Metropolitan Area from August 2015 to December 2015. Survey respondents identified 45 different plants/herbs that they currently use or had used at some point in their life. Those with higher levels of education had varying opinions on medicinal plant use with their current practices. Conclusion: The participants’ high interest in the use of medicinal plants exemplifies the need for enhanced communication between patients and healthcare professionals about medicinal plant use. However, it was hard to determine whether the participants’ level of education had any direct relationship to this use. Conflict of Interest None   Type: Original Research

  18. The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  20. Urban heat island effect on cicada densities in metropolitan Seoul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoa Q. Nguyen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Urban heat island (UHI effect, the ubiquitous consequence of urbanization, is considered to play a major role in population expansion of numerous insects. Cryptotympana atrata and Hyalessa fuscata are the most abundant cicada species in the Korean Peninsula, where their population densities are higher in urban than in rural areas. We predicted a positive relationship between the UHI intensities and population densities of these two cicada species in metropolitan Seoul. Methods To test this prediction, enumeration surveys of cicada exuviae densities were conducted in 36 localities located within and in the vicinity of metropolitan Seoul. Samples were collected in two consecutive periods from July to August 2015. The abundance of each species was estimated by two resource-weighted densities, one based on the total geographic area, and the other on the total number of trees. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify factors critical for the prevalence of cicada species in the urban habitat. Results C. atrata and H. fuscata were major constituents of cicada species composition collected across all localities. Minimum temperature and sampling period were significant factors contributing to the variation in densities of both species, whereas other environmental factors related to urbanization were not significant. More cicada exuviae were collected in the second rather than in the first samplings, which matched the phenological pattern of cicadas in metropolitan Seoul. Cicada population densities increased measurably with the increase in temperature. Age of residential complex also exhibited a significantly positive correlation to H. fuscata densities, but not to C. atrata densities. Discussion Effects of temperature on cicada densities have been discerned from other environmental factors, as cicada densities increased measurably in tandem with elevated temperature. Several mechanisms may contribute to the abundance of

  1. Relationship between premature mortality and socioeconomic factors in black and white populations of US metropolitan areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R S; Kennelly, J F; Durazo-Arvizu, R; Oh, H J; Kaplan, G; Lynch, J

    2001-01-01

    examined the association of mortality with selected socioeconomic indicators of inequality and segregation among blacks and whites younger than age 65 in 267 US metropolitan areas. The primary aim of the analysis was to operationalize the concept of institutional racism in public health. Socioeconomic indicators were drawn from Census and vital statistics data for 1989-1991 and included median household income; two measures of income inequality; percentage of the population that was black; and a measure of residential segregation. Age-adjusted premature mortality was 81% higher in blacks than in whites, and median household income was 40% lower. Income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, was greater within the black population (0.45) than within the white population (0.40; p inequality for the total population was significantly correlated with premature mortality (r = 0.33). Black (r = 0.26) and white (r = 0.20) population-specific correlations between income inequality and premature mortality, while still significant, were smaller. Residential segregation was significantly related to premature mortality and income inequality for blacks (r = 0.38 for both); among whites, however, segregation was modestly correlated with premature mortality (r = 0.19) and uncorrelated with income inequality. Regional analyses demonstrated that the association of segregation with premature mortality was much more pronounced in the South and in areas with larger black populations. Social factors such as income inequality and segregation strongly influence premature mortality in the US. Ecologic studies of the relationships among social factors and population health can measure attributes of the social context that may be relevant for population health, providing the basis for imputing macro-level relationships.

  2. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the result, there is no evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and energy consumption to economic growth and strong unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth to population growth was found. The long run and short run estimates ...

  3. Service utilization for mental problems in a metropolitan migrant population in china.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zhaoguo; Hu, Chiyi; Wei, Xiaolin; Yang, Hong; Shu, Mingyue; Liu, Tiebang

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and predictors of service utilization for mental health problems of the first-generation migrant population in Shenzhen, China, a city that attracts millions of unskilled rural laborers each year. Using the structured World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview, the investigators conducted face-to-face surveys between September 1, 2005, and January 30, 2006. A total of 7,134 respondents age 18 years and above finished the surveys. The main outcomes were prevalence of mental disorders according to DSM-IV criteria, as well as prevalence of mental health services used in different sectors. Nine percent of the sample had ever used some type of service for mental health issues, and 6.3% used services outside of the health service sector, such as human services and complementary and alternative medicine. In addition, DSM criteria for a mental disorder over the lifetime were met by 18.1% of respondents; of the respondents with a mental disorder, 18.3% had used mental health services at least once. Migrants who were unmarried, had high family income, were raised in metropolitan areas, had histories of homelessness or attempted suicide, had a psychotic disorder, or had an anxiety disorder were more likely to use services for mental health care. In Shenzhen, few migrants used mental health services and most used complementary and alternative medicine services. Future studies of service utilization patterns in migrant populations should give special attention to personal characteristics, such as family support.

  4. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  5. Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Demetrius, L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

  6. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  7. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  8. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  9. A Political-Ecological Analysis of Income Inequality in the Metropolitan Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollens, Scott A.

    1986-01-01

    Metropolitan development is not simply a result of ecological factors. Governmental organization affects the incentives of localities and helps determine patterns of growth. This study updates previous studies on factors influencing residential area income inequality. Modification of the variables in the ecological explanation will increase…

  10. Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

  11. Suicide among young rural Australians 1964-1993: a comparison with metropolitan trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, M; Kelk, N; Florio, T; Howard, J; Waters, B; Haski, C; Alcock, M

    1997-07-01

    The study tested hypotheses that from 1964 to 1993: (1) suicide rates among Australian 15- to 24-year-old males rose more sharply in rural than metropolitan areas; (2) firearm suicide rates among 15- to 24-year-old males, declining throughout Australia recently, rose continuously in rural areas; (3) suicide rates among 15- to 24-year-old females did not change significantly in either metropolitan or rural areas. Suicides of those aged 10-24 years recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) were classified according to the subject's residential grouping. Rates were calculated using ABS population data corresponding to these groupings. Results were analysed using log-linear analysis and chi-square statistics. The results supported the first two hypotheses, but not the third. Suicide rates for 15- to 24-year-old males rose by a factor of 2.2 in metropolitan areas, by 4-fold in towns with populations between 4,000 and 25,000, and by 12-fold in towns with populations less than 4,000. Male firearm suicide rates continued to rise in rural areas, and the greatest proportion of deaths in those locations were by firearms, though male hanging rates increased most in recent years in all locations. Female youth suicide rates did not change overall, but in towns with populations less than 4,000, they increased 4.5-fold. Possible explanations for this epidemic, which are mostly speculative and require confirmation, are discussed.

  12. Population growth, accessibility spillovers and persistent borders: Historical growth in West-European municipalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Koomen, Eric

    2017-06-01

    Lack of cross-border transport supply has repeatedly been blamed for the fact that national borders limit spatial interaction and, consequently, the growth of border regions. This study applies an accessibility approach to investigate for most municipalities in ten countries in mainland West Europe if foreign transport supply is lagging behind, and if population growth in these municipalities has been affected by the limits that national borders have imposed on market access. To do so, data describing historical population changes and road networks between 1961 and 2011 have been used. The results show that in the study area, cross-border transport accessibility was not at a disadvantage in 1961 and has since then grown even more than domestic accessibility. However, municipal population growth has depended almost exclusively on domestic market access. Processes of economic international integration in the study area are found to coincide with the growth of cross-border accessibility, but do not have a clear coincidence with the effects of cross-border accessibility on population growth.

  13. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bental, B

    1989-03-01

    The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

  14. Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

    1984-09-01

    The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered.

  15. Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Meredith V; Krishna-Kumar, Siddharth; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2013-03-01

    Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

  16. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

  17. Environmental impact of population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  18. The light pollution as a surrogate for urban population of the US cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operti, Felipe G.; Oliveira, Erneson A.; Carmona, Humberto A.; Machado, Javam C.; Andrade, José S.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the definition of the city boundaries can have a dramatic influence on the scaling behavior of the night-time light (NTL) as a function of population (POP) in the US. Precisely, our results show that the arbitrary geopolitical definition based on the Metropolitan/Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA/CMSA) leads to a sublinear power-law growth of NTL with POP. On the other hand, when cities are defined according to a more natural agglomeration criteria, namely, the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA), an isometric relation emerges between NTL and population. This discrepancy is compatible with results from previous works showing that the scaling behaviors of various urban indicators with population can be substantially different for distinct definitions of city boundaries. Moreover, considering the CCA definition as more adequate than the MSA/CMSA one because the former does not violate the expected extensivity between land population and area of their generated clusters, we conclude that, without loss of generality, the CCA measures of light pollution and population could be interchangeably utilized in future studies.

  19. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  20. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    OpenAIRE

    Axel Kristinsson; Árni Daníel Júlíusson

    2016-01-01

    A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionar...

  1. The end of world population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

  2. Sachet drinking water in Ghana's Accra-Tema metropolitan area: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, Justin; Weeks, John R; Fink, Günther

    2012-01-01

    Population growth in West Africa has outpaced local efforts to expand potable water services, and private sector sale of packaged drinking water has filled an important gap in household water security. Consumption of drinking water packaged in plastic sachets has soared in West Africa over the last decade, but the long-term implications of these changing consumption patterns remain unclear and unstudied. This paper reviews recent shifts in drinking water, drawing upon data from the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys, and provides an overview of the history, economics, quality, and regulation of sachet water in Ghana's Accra-Tema Metropolitan Area. Given the pros and cons of sachet water, we suggest that a more holistic understanding of the drinking water landscape is necessary for municipal planning and sustainable drinking water provision.

  3. Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Richard H.

    Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

  4. Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1989-01-01

    "Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

  5. Relative Food Prices and Obesity in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: 1976-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xin; Variyam, Jayachandran N.; Zhao, Zhenxiang; Chaloupka, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of food price on obesity, by exploring the co-occurrence of obesity growth with relative food price reduction between 1976 and 2001. Analyses control for female labor participation and metropolitan outlet densities that might affect body weight. Both the first-difference and fixed effects approaches provide consistent evidence suggesting that relative food prices have substantial impacts on obesity and such impacts were more pronounced among the low-educated. These findings imply that relative food price reductions during the time period could plausibly explain about 18% of the increase in obesity among the U.S. adults in metropolitan areas. PMID:25502888

  6. Cancer incidence in Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area, 2000-2004. First five years report from population based cancer registry of Metropolitan Area of Bucaramanga.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Eliana Meza Durán

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Cancer is one of the most common chronic diseases that cause high morbidity and mortality. In the evaluation of all illnessand its impact on the community, a surveillance system becomes necessary to allows us to know its incidence. Cancersurveillance is achieved by the population-based cancer registry. Methodology: The Population Based Cancer Registry ofMetropolitan Area of Bucaramanga (RPC-AMB collected information from the years 2000 to 2004, in patients with anymalignant cancer the which include both invasive and in situ behavior in addition to reside within this geographical area . TheCancer Registry also collects data on brain and nervous system tumors classified as benign or those that have uncertainbehavior. Basal cell cancers of the skin were included during the two first years as well as all the intraepithelial neoplasm ofthe cervix. Active collections of information at all sources by registry staff were made (Hospitals, Health care institutions,especially oncology centers and Pathology and Hematology Laboratories and some specialist in oncology attention. Theinclusion approaches are verified and collects data on specific sociodemographic information (age, gender, residence, placeof birth, etc. and on the anatomic site of the tumor, the cell type of the cancer, behavior and extension on each individualdiagnosed with cancer. Each case was coded using the International Classification of Diseases Oncology Third Edition (ICDO-3, for topographical and morphological code. The data was entered into a computer with CanReg-4 software that is aconfigurable computer program designed for cancer registration in population-based registries and was provided as aservice by the Descriptive Epidemiology Unit to members of the International Association of Cancer Registries. This softwareprovides the number of cancer cases (frequency and the incidence rates. The quality control included exhaustiveness of thecases and information, verification of the

  7. Diet quality limits summer growth of field vole populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian M Forbes

    Full Text Available Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1 food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight pellets, 2 food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content pellets, and 3 control (no food supplementation, n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the

  8. Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, Mark R.

    1987-01-01

    Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

  9. The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

    2014-03-01

    Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

  10. Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, J L

    1989-03-01

    Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

  11. Uber and Metropolitan Traffic Fatalities in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazil, Noli; Kirk, David S

    2016-08-01

    Uber and similar rideshare services are rapidly dispersing in cities across the United States and beyond. Given the convenience and low cost, Uber has been characterized as a potential countermeasure for reducing the estimated 121 million episodes of drunk driving and the 10,000 resulting traffic fatalities that occur annually in the United States. We exploited differences in the timing of the deployment of Uber in US metropolitan counties from 2005 to 2014 to test the association between the availability of Uber's rideshare services and total, drunk driving-related, and weekend- and holiday-specific traffic fatalities in the 100 most populated metropolitan areas in the United States using negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found that the deployment of Uber services in a given metropolitan county had no association with the number of subsequent traffic fatalities, whether measured in aggregate or specific to drunk-driving fatalities or fatalities during weekends and holidays. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth

    OpenAIRE

    David Levinson; Wei Chen

    2007-01-01

    Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin CitiesMetropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and second...

  13. The outlook for population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ronald

    2011-07-29

    Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

  14. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  15. Premises for Shaping Metropolitan Areas in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RAULARIAN RUSU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The setting up of metropolitan areas is a process which is still in progress in Romania. The legislative framework for the creation of these areas has been built up only since 2001, and there are still a number of juridical inconsistencies concerning the association of administrative units to form metropolitan areas. On the other hand, political reasons and the fear of losing a certain degree of authority and to become subordinates of the large cities (in the case of rural municipalities also hindered the development of metropolitan areas in Romania. Nevertheless, the metropolitan areas already in existence are running a number of projects that are beneficial for most members of the association. Such positive examples may trigger the creation of the other metropolitan areas. Although the existing metropolitan areas did not yield spectacular results, the time passed since their foundation is yet too short to correctly assess their usefulness and territorial meaning. For the moment, the following metropolitan areas exist in Romania: Iaşi, Oradea, Braşov, Constanţa, Bacău, Cluj-Napoca, Târgu Mureş and Craiova. Bucharest, Timişoara, Ploieşti and Galaţi-Brăila metropolitan areas are still in process of setting up.

  16. Evaluation of the external costs of energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otterstroem, T.

    1995-01-01

    The aim of the research is to evaluate the external costs of energy production at Helsinki metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa). The previously developed valorization method for effects on population centres is adjusted. All the main health, material and environmental effects will be taken into account in the research. The effects of emissions of the energy production of the Helsinki metropolitan area on concentrations of the impurities in the air and through them on human and environment will be evaluated. The estimates will be based on the relativistic fuels consumption and the emission data of Helsinki metropolitan area. Life-cycle reasoning will be applied so that the emissions of the main components of the fuels used in the metropolitan area will be included in the estimation. The cost-effectiveness of the investments will be estimated by comparing the environmental investments of energy boards with the external costs. The methods of this work can be applied to estimation of the profitability of energy production plants from the point of view of national economy also elsewhere in the country

  17. Sachet drinking water in Ghana’s Accra-Tema metropolitan area: past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, John R.; Fink, Günther

    2013-01-01

    Population growth in West Africa has outpaced local efforts to expand potable water services, and private sector sale of packaged drinking water has filled an important gap in household water security. Consumption of drinking water packaged in plastic sachets has soared in West Africa over the last decade, but the long-term implications of these changing consumption patterns remain unclear and unstudied. This paper reviews recent shifts in drinking water, drawing upon data from the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys, and provides an overview of the history, economics, quality, and regulation of sachet water in Ghana’s Accra-Tema Metropolitan Area. Given the pros and cons of sachet water, we suggest that a more holistic understanding of the drinking water landscape is necessary for municipal planning and sustainable drinking water provision. PMID:24294481

  18. The freight landscape : using secondary data sources to describe metropolitan freight flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Metropolitan areas around the world are seeking to better manage freight flows and reduce negative impacts on local populations. A major challenge to better urban freight management is the lack of data; little is known about freight movements at the ...

  19. Analysing contemporary metropolitan spatial plans in Europe through their institutional context, instrumental content and planning process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elinbaum, Pablo; Galland, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    This article sets out to propose and apply a qualitative framework for thinking about how to analyze and compare metropolitan spatial plans in a milieu of divergent spatial planning traditions and discretionary planning practices. In doing so, the article reviews and develops an understanding...... concerning the institutional context, instrumental content and planning processes associated with four contemporary metropolitan spatial plans in Europe, namely London, Copenhagen, Paris and Barcelona. Through the results of a multiple case study and a subsequent cross comparative analysis, the article...... stresses that contemporary metropolitan spatial plans tend to merge characteristics associated with project-based and strategy-based spatial plans, thus contrasting with the typical land-use character of municipal plans and the often strategic, growth-oriented pursuit of regional plans in Europe...

  20. Habitat-specific population growth of a farmland bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Arlt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s: -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively, that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s: -0.056, +0.081, -0.059. Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.

  1. Using remote sensing and GIS to detect and monitor land use and land cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh during 1960-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewan, Ashraf M; Yamaguchi, Yasushi

    2009-03-01

    This paper illustrates the result of land use/cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh using topographic maps and multi-temporal remotely sensed data from 1960 to 2005. The Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was used to extract information from satellite data, and post-classification change detection method was employed to detect and monitor land use/cover change. Derived land use/cover maps were further validated by using high resolution images such as SPOT, IRS, IKONOS and field data. The overall accuracy of land cover change maps, generated from Landsat and IRS-1D data, ranged from 85% to 90%. The analysis indicated that the urban expansion of Dhaka Metropolitan resulted in the considerable reduction of wetlands, cultivated land, vegetation and water bodies. The maps showed that between 1960 and 2005 built-up areas increased approximately 15,924 ha, while agricultural land decreased 7,614 ha, vegetation decreased 2,336 ha, wetland/lowland decreased 6,385 ha, and water bodies decreased about 864 ha. The amount of urban land increased from 11% (in 1960) to 344% in 2005. Similarly, the growth of landfill/bare soils category was about 256% in the same period. Much of the city's rapid growth in population has been accommodated in informal settlements with little attempt being made to limit the risk of environmental impairments. The study quantified the patterns of land use/cover change for the last 45 years for Dhaka Metropolitan that forms valuable resources for urban planners and decision makers to devise sustainable land use and environmental planning.

  2. Perceived stigmatization and discrimination of people with mental illness: A survey-based study of the general population in five metropolitan cities in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böge, Kerem; Zieger, Aron; Mungee, Aditya; Tandon, Abhinav; Fuchs, Lukas Marian; Schomerus, Georg; Tam Ta, Thi Minh; Dettling, Michael; Bajbouj, Malek; Angermeyer, Matthias; Hahn, Eric

    2018-01-01

    India faces a significant gap between the prevalence of mental illness among the population and the availability and effectiveness of mental health care in providing adequate treatment. This discrepancy results in structural stigma toward mental illness which in turn is one of the main reasons for a persistence of the treatment gap, whereas societal factors such as religion, education, and family structures play critical roles. This survey-based study investigates perceived stigma toward mental illness in five metropolitan cities in India and explores the roles of relevant sociodemographic factors. Samples were collected in five metropolitan cities in India including Chennai ( n = 166), Kolkata ( n = 158), Hyderabad ( n = 139), Lucknow ( n = 183), and Mumbai ( n = 278). Stratified quota sampling was used to match the general population concerning age, gender, and religion. Further, sociodemographic variables such as educational attainment and strength of religious beliefs were included in the statistical analysis. Participants displayed overall high levels of perceived stigma. Multiple linear regression analysis found a significant effect of gender ( P Gender differences in cultural and societal roles and expectations could account for higher levels of perceived stigma among female participants. A higher level of perceived stigma among female participants is attributed to cultural norms and female roles within a family or broader social system. This study underlines that while India as a country in transition, societal and gender rules still impact perceived stigma and discrimination of people with mental illness.

  3. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  4. Derivation of Nationally Consistent Indices Representing Urban Intensity Within and Across Nine Metropolitan Areas of the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuffney, Thomas F.; Falcone, James A.

    2009-01-01

    Two nationally consistent multimetric indices of urban intensity were developed to support studies of the effects of urbanization on streams in nine metropolitan areas of the conterminous United States: Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; Boston, Massachusetts; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Portland, Oregon; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Salt Lake City, Utah. These studies were conducted as a part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These urban intensity indices were used to define gradients of urbanization and to interpret biological, physical, and chemical changes along these gradients. Ninety census, land-cover, and infrastructure variables obtained from nationally available databases were evaluated. Only variables that exhibited a strong and consistent linear relation with 2000 population density were considered for use in the indices. Housing-unit density (HUDEN), percentage of basin area in developed land (P_NLCD1_2), and road density (ROADDEN) were selected as the best representatives of census, land-cover, and infrastructure variables. The metropolitan area national urban intensity index (MA-NUII) was scaled to represent urban intensity within each metropolitan area and ranged from 0 (little or no urban) to 100 (maximum urban) for sites within each metropolitan area. The national urban intensity index (NUII) was scaled to represent urban intensity across all nine metropolitan areas and ranged from 0 to 100 for all sites. The rates at which HUDEN, P_NLCD1_2, and ROADDEN changed with changes in population density varied among metropolitan areas. Therefore, these variables were adjusted to obtain a more uniform rate of response across metropolitan areas in the derivation of the NUII. The NUII indicated that maximum levels of urban intensity occurred in the West and Midwest rather than in the East primarily because small inner-city streams in eastern metropolitan areas are

  5. Differences in attitudes towards medication between population groups in the Durban Metropolitan Area of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleman, Fatima; Ally, Shabnam; Bayat, Samirah; Essack, Razia; Moodley, Renalda; Mtembu, Thobekile; Ramalingham, Emily

    2009-08-01

    Personal factors, especially attitude, have been implicated in the utilization of health care services, and in access to medical treatment. There is little information on the attitudes of the general public in South Africa towards medications and whether attitudes differ across population groups or among the different users of the health care system. This study aimed to determine the general attitude of a local population to medications, self-care orientation and health professional contact, and whether differences existed between age groups, gender and race groups. METHODS We carried out a randomized, cross-sectional quantitative study via telephonic questionnaire survey (adapted from a previous study) of a sample of 1132 telephone numbers. The setting was the Durban Metropolitan Area, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. KEY FINDINGS A total of 500 (44.2%) people responded. The majority had a positive attitude towards medication. An increase in age resulted in increased medication use. Females were more likely than males to use medication and seek professional health care (P = 0.0406). Most of the respondents (86.0%) were self-care-orientated and displayed moderate medication knowledge (46.2%). Some 295 (59.0%) of the 500 respondents had visited a pharmacy within the last 6 months. Conclusions Health care professionals can adopt an informed approach to address the needs of the population with regard to medication, by targeting groups more likely to use medication (females and the older age group). In addition, gaps in medication knowledge were identified which could be used for health-promotion interventions by health care workers.

  6. The role of a bus network in access to primary health care in Metropolitan Auckland, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, C M; McGuire, S; Whyman, R; Kruger, E; Tennant, M

    2015-09-01

    Background: This study examined the spatial accessibility of the population of metropolitan Auckland, New Zealand to the bus network, to connect them to primary health providers, in this case doctors (GP) and dentists. Analysis of accessibility by ethnic identity and socio-economic status were also carried out, because of existing health inequalities along these dimensions. The underlying hypothesis was that most people would live within easy reach of primary health providers, or easy bus transport to such providers. An integrated geographic model of bus transport routes and stops, with population and primary health providers (medical. and dental practices) was developed and analysed. Although the network of buses in metropolitan Auckland is substantial and robust it was evident that many people live more than 150 metres from a stop. Improving the access to bus stops, particularly in areas of high primary health care need (doctors and dentists), would certainly be an opportunity to enhance spatial access in a growing metropolitan area.

  7. Farm Population of the United States: 1975. Current Population Reports: Farm Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Vera J.; And Others

    Presented via narrative and tabular data, this report includes: Population of the U.S., Total and Farm: 1960-1975; Metropolitan-Nonmetropolitan Residence of the Farm and Nonfarm Population, by Race: 1975; Fertility Characteristics of Farm and Nonfarm Women, by Race: 1975; Persons 14 Years Old and Over Employed in Agriculture, by Farm-Nonfarm…

  8. Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K

    1985-07-01

    There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

  9. Siting of Nuclear Power Plants in Metropolitan Areas. Estimation of Population Doses due to Accidental Release of Fission Products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bresser, H. [Technischer Ueberwachungs-Verein Rheinland E.V., Cologne (Germany); Schwarzer, W. [Institut fuer Reaktorsicherheit der Technischen Ueberwachungs-Vereine E.V., Cologne (Germany)

    1967-09-15

    The safety of large nuclear power plants in heavily populated areas depends entirely on engineered safeguards. An assessment of their reliability and effectiveness will have to play a major role in any safety analysis of such a plant, and this assessment will have to be made on the basis of the radiological burden to the environment - in terms of individual dose and a population dose - which can be accepted as tolerable in case of a severe accident. The calculation of the dispersion of fission products in the atmosphere, which links the radiological burden to the release of radioactivity, should be modified. The fact that distance factors, aside from a comparably small exclusion area, can no longer be taken into account suggests the introduction of the parameter ''population density'' and an extensive use of the man-rem concept. In this connection the time history of the release and the influence of variations of wind directions lose their importance. The authors have carried out calculations of the population dose, which could be received in a metropolitan area as a consequence of a severe reactor accident, using population densities, height of release above ground and generalized meteorological data as the main parameters. The results of these calculations are used as a basis for an assessment of the performance requirements of the engineered safeguards system, and the relative importance of different components of this system is discussed. (author)

  10. Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

    2017-09-01

    Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in

  11. Environment, wealth, inequality and the burden of disease in the Accra metropolitan area, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boadi, Kwasi Owusu; Kuitunen, Markku

    2005-06-01

    The study examines environmental problems and adverse impacts on the health of urban households in the Accra metropolitan area, Ghana. Accra is faced with severe inadequacy of urban infrastructure in the face of rapid population growth in the metropolis. More than half of the city's population do not have access to solid waste collection services. Only 39.8% of households have indoor pipe and over 35.0% of households depend on unsanitary public latrines whilst 2.5% do not have access to toilet facilities. Human excrement, garbage and wastewater are usually deposited in surface drains, open spaces and streams in poor neighbourhoods. The resultant poor sanitation has serious health impacts as more than half of reported diseases are related to poor environmental sanitation. The majority of households depend on solid fuels for cooking and this leads to indoor air pollution and high incidence of respiratory infections. Poor households bear a disproportionately large share of the burden of environmental health hazards than their wealthy counterparts, due to their particular vulnerability resulting from inadequate access to environmental health facilities and services.

  12. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  13. TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

  14. Chieti-Pescara Metropolitan Area: International Migrations, Residential Choices and Economic Deconcentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armando Montanari

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject of human mobility – with reference to the migratory component – has taken on specific significance during the last decade, particularly with regard to the concept of place. This paper considers the subject in relation to residential and economic deconcentration. The specific point of reference is the metropolitan area of Chieti-Pescara, in the central part of Italy’s Adriatic coast. The research was carried out through quantitative analysis of official data from population censuses and register offices. The results highlight the links between movements of residents and those of firms, in which foreign residents show distinctive behaviour. The residential choices made by foreigners in the area are based on economic reasons and are primarily linked to housing and transport costs. Their communities tend to be concentrated in specific zones of the metropolitan area and in specific districts of the cities, as a consequence of a feeling of belonging and solidarity. Although there are no clear signs of segregation phenomena, the native population tends to avoid mingling with foreigners from marginal countries.

  15. Sustainable Development under Population Pressure: Lessons from Developed Land Consumption in the Conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Population growth will result in a significant anthropogenic environmental change worldwide through increases in developed land (DL) consumption. DL consumption is an important environmental and socioeconomic process affecting humans and ecosystems. Attention has been given to DL modeling inside highly populated cities. However, modeling DL consumption should expand to non-metropolitan areas where arguably the environmental consequences are more significant. Here, we study all counties within the conterminous U.S. and based on satellite-derived product (National Land Cover Dataset 2001) we calculate the associated DL for each county. By using county population data from the 2000 census we present a comparative study on DL consumption and we propose a model linking population with expected DL consumption. Results indicate distinct geographic patterns of comparatively low and high consuming counties moving from east to west. We also demonstrate that the relationship of DL consumption with population is mostly linear, altering the notion that expected population growth will have lower DL consumption if added in counties with larger population. Added DL consumption is independent of a county’s starting population and only dependent on whether the county belongs to a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). In the overlapping MSA and non-MSA population range there is also a constant DL efficiency gain of approximately 20km2 for a given population for MSA counties which suggests that transitioning from rural to urban counties has significantly higher benefits in lower populations. In addition, we analyze the socioeconomic composition of counties with extremely high or low DL consumption. High DL consumption counties have statistically lower Black/African American population, higher poverty rate and lower income per capita than average in both NMSA and MSA counties. Our analysis offers a baseline to investigate further land consumption strategies in anticipation of growing

  16. Entrepreneurship, Information, and Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunten, Devin; Weiler, Stephan; Weiler, Stephan; Zahran, Sammy

    2016-01-01

    We examine the contribution to economic growth of entrepreneurial “marketplace information” within a regional endogenous growth framework. Entrepreneurs are posited to provide an input to economic growth through the information revealed by their successes and failures. We empirically identify this information source with the regional variation in establishment births and deaths, which create geographic information asymmetries that influence subsequent entrepreneurial activity and economic growth. We find that local establishment birth and death rates are significantly and positively correlated with subsequent entrepreneurship for US counties. To account for the potential endogeneity caused by forward-looking entrepreneurs, we utilize instruments based on historic mining activity. We find that the information spillover component of local establishment birth and death rates have significant positive effects on subsequent entrepreneurship and employment growth for US counties and metropolitan areas. With the help of these intruments, we show that establishment births have a positive and significant effect on future employment growth within all counties, and that in line with the information hypothesis, local establishment death rates have a similar positive effect within metropolitan counties. PMID:27516625

  17. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  18. Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake Preparedness Project - A Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, H.

    2010-12-01

    recovery, and life recovery. The primary target for long-term recovery, we propose, should be life recovery. To achieve this, economic recovery should be realized to secure sustainable economic growth. As the tool for economic recovery, physical recovery should deals with restoration of infrastructure, a proper land use planning, and the provision of housing for the victims. Fig. 1 The worst case scenario of Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

  19. Diabetes diagnosis and management among insured adults across metropolitan areas in the U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenya Yang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This study provides diabetes-related metrics for the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. in 2012—including prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, insurance status of the population with diabetes, diabetes medication use, and prevalence of poorly controlled diabetes.Diabetes prevalence estimates were calculated using cross-sectional data combining the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, American Community Survey, National Nursing Home Survey, Census population files, and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Analysis of medical claims files (2012 de-identified Normative Health Information database, 2011 Medicare Standard Analytical Files, and 2008 Medicaid Analytic eXtract produced information on treatment and poorly controlled diabetes by geographic location, insurance type, sex, and age group.Among insured adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes in 2012, the proportion receiving diabetes medications ranged from 83% in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, to 65% in West Palm Beach, Florida. The proportion of treated patients with medical claims indicating poorly controlled diabetes was lowest in Minneapolis, Minnesota (36% and highest in Texas metropolitan areas of Austin (51%, San Antonio (51%, and Houston (50%.Estimates of diabetes detection and management across metropolitan areas often differ from state and national estimates. Local metrics of diabetes management can be helpful for tracking improvements in communities over time. Keywords: Diabetes, Management

  20. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  1. Green Urbanism for the Greener Future of Metropolitan Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaręba, Anna; Krzemińska, Alicja; Widawski, Krzysztof

    2016-10-01

    Intensive urbanization is swallowing municipal green areas which causes intensification of erosion, decrease in biodiversity and permanent fragmentation of habitats. In the face of these changes, a risk of irreversible damages to urban ecosystems is growing. That is why planning of solutions within the framework of Green Urbanism in metropolitan areas inhabited by over 55% of the global population is of extraordinary importance. The task of the paper is to present patterns of the Green Urbanism using selected examples of metropolitan areas as case studies. The main goal of the research is to make comparison between GU practices in different countries, in various spatial settings. The principles of triple zero framework: zero fossil-fuel energy use, zero waste, zero emissions (from low-to-no-carbon emissions) introduce not only the contemporary trends in theoretical urban planning but are dictated by practical considerations to create a healthy environment for a healthy society with a minimized environmental footprint. The research results help to identify Green Urbanism techniques used for multiple functions, including ecological, recreational, cultural, aesthetic and other uses and present opportunities for implementation of Green Urbanism solutions in metropolitan areas. To achieve healthier society and environment, highly congested and polluted cities have to be recreated through working with the existing landscape, topography and natural resources particular to the site.

  2. On the theory of global population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    2010-01-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

  3. Population growth and economic development: two new U.S. perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulf, D; Klitsch, M

    1986-01-01

    This report compares the research paths of economic development reports by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Assembly of Columbia University. The NAS group, made up principally of economists and demographers, refrained from recommending population reduction targets, in contrast to the stronger terms of its 1971 report. A 1965 report by the Assembly spoke of population as a serious negative influence for economic development, political stability, and world peace, while the new report speaks of negative socioeconomic effects, and of the limiting of a person's right to control family size. The NAS agenda was established before the US delegation to the UN population conference in Mexico City retreated from declaring population growth to be a necessarily negative influencer of socioeconomic progress. The Assembly took the position that possible benefits of population growth would be far outweighed by factors such as resource depletion and women's health. The NAS maintained that growth might provide incentives for institutional adjustments (market development, investment in education) and control of growth should not be considered a substitute for such interventions. Both reports agree that control of fertility is a human right, but the NAS report examined the question of the acceptable degree of compulsion to be used to encourage couples. The Assembly objected to limiting access to family planning by defunding abortion programs oversease. Differences exist between the 2 reports in questins such as the negative impact of 1950's population growth, the synergistic effect of growth on many areas of human activity, the extent to which welfare of future generations is considered relevant today, and the adequacy of pure economic analysis in assessing need. Much study of population/development linkages is still required.

  4. The freight landscape : using secondary data sources to describe metropolitan freight flows : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Metropolitan areas around the world are seeking to better manage freight flows and reduce negative impacts on local populations. A major challenge to better urban freight management is the lack of data; little is known about freight movements at the ...

  5. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  6. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  7. Taking Exception. Reduced mortality leads to population growth: an inconvenient truth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, James D

    2014-05-01

    Reduced mortality has been the predominant cause of the marked global population growth over the last 3/4 of a century. While improved child survival increases motivation to reduce fertility, it comes too little and too late to forestall substantial population growth. And, beyond motivation, couples need effective means to control their fertility. It is an inconvenient truth that reducing child mortality contributes considerably to the population growth destined to compromise the quality of life of many, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Vigorous child survival programming is of course imperative. Wide access to voluntary family planning can help mitigate that growth and provide many other benefits.

  8. Improving Public Health and Environment through Plastic Waste Management in Mumbai Metropolitan Region

    OpenAIRE

    Sanjay RODE

    2015-01-01

    The Mumbai Metropolitan Region is growing in terms of population, industry, educational and commercial units. The daily requirements of commodities and services by all units have increased fast. Plastic is used extensively for packing, protection and service of various commodities. The use of plastic is much higher by industry and households in region. In Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation, the density of population is higher. The concentration of small and large industries is more. Therefor...

  9. Using GIS to integrate the analysis of land-use, transportation, and the environment for managing urban growth based on transit oriented development in the metropolitan of Jabodetabek, Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasibuan, H S; Moersidik, S; Koestoer, R; Soemardi, T P

    2014-01-01

    There is an interaction between land use, transportation, and environment in improving and managing urban quality. One of the concpets to integrate those three aspects is Transit Oriented Development (TOD). It is a concept for managing urban growth in transit corridors which have characteristics of mixed land use, compact, walkability, and development focused around public transit area. This research aims at utilizing GIS to organize, sort, and analyze spatial data including aspects of land use, transportation, and environment. Jabodetabek is a strategic metropolitan area in Indonesia, and consists of DKI Jakarta and the neighboring Bodetabek cities, with more than 27 million population in 2010. Approximately 1,105,000 people are entering Jakarta every workday from the negihboring Bodetabek region. The surge in the number of passenger cars and motorcycles is astonishing. In contrast, the usage of public transport has declined deeply. Public transport infrastructure development without the integration of TOD may not attain the objective of reducing car dependency. This paper discusses the study which was carried out to identify the applicability of TOD principles in Jabodetabek using GIS as a tool to analysis and create model

  10. Population growth and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbridge, S

    1989-01-01

    The Malthusian and neo-Malthusian approaches to the role of population growth in economic development and resource depletion are briefly outlined. Three arguments are then presented that emphasize demographic determinism, empirical evidence, and cause and effect. The author concludes that non-coercive family planning programs may have a role to play in countries that are unable to reduce inequalities, particularly for the poor and for women.

  11. Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". full text

  12. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  13. Metropolitan water management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Milliken, J. Gordon; Taylor, Graham C

    1981-01-01

    This monograph is intended to inform interested and capable pesons, who happen not to be specialists in water resources planning, of the issues and alternative strategies related to metropolitan water supply...

  14. Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

    2011-01-01

    First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are the...

  15. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  16. Potential for air quality improvement in the Tokyo metropolitan area from use of hydrogen fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruger, Paul; Murdock, Mork

    1998-01-01

    A revised estimation has been made of the local air quality improvement that can be achieved in Tokyo as a byproduct of a word-wide hydrogen energy economy based on global reduction of CO2 emission from fossil fuels. The study for the WE-NET Project in Japan examined the potential for reduction in nitrogen oxide emission with hydrogen fuel in the Tokyo metropolitan area where sufficient data exist on trends in population, vehicle registrations, traffic activity, and exhaust emissions. A dynamic model was developed to extrapolate the trends in these data to estimate future NOx emission rates in comparison to regulatory scenarios based on policy and technical decisions of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for improvement of air quality in the metropolitan area. The results of the model show significant potential for reduction of NOx emission by the year 2020 with a concomitant reduction in mean roadside NOx concentration. (author)

  17. ‘New urbanism' or metropolitan-level centralization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2011-01-01

    Based on a study in Copenhagen Metropolitan Area, this paper compares the influences of macro-level and micro-level urban form characteristics on the respondents' traveling distance by car on weekdays. The Copenhagen study shows that metropolitan-scale urban structural variables generally exert...... stronger influences than neighborhood-scale built environment characteristics on the amount of car travel. In particular, the location of the residence relative to the main city center of the metropolitan region shows a strong effect. Some local scale variables often mentioned in the literature...

  18. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  19. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  20. Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

    1995-01-01

    The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

  1. New Metropolitan Spaces and Metropolitan Strategies in the Face of Modernisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem Salet

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Au début du xxie siècle, les espaces urbains traversent une période de croissance et de transformation radicale. Les villes s’étendent de plus en plus. Leur configuration spatiale devient de plus en plus décentralisée et fragmentée. La dichotomie traditionnelle entre hiérarchie urbaine et périphérie est en train de disparaître. Les nouveaux espaces métropolitains sont caractérisés par des processus de segmentation et de spécialisation à distance ainsi que par des polarisations sociales qui structurent l’espace. Les tentatives de planification des villes-régions essaient de rééquilibrer ces processus qui font éclater la ville. Cet article explore brièvement les transformations métropolitaines actuelles en utilisant une approche générique. Il se focalise également sur les stratégies des métropoles pour affronter ces défis dans le cadre de situations institutionnelles variées, un peu partout en Europe. En troisième lieu, cet article interroge les effets potentiels des projets urbains sur un rééquilibrage des transformations urbaines. Comment les grands projets urbains sont-ils conceptuellement élaborés ? Comment les alliances d’acteurs qui les soutiennent se forgent-elles ? Comment les citoyens et les groupes sociaux sont-ils impliqués de manière à produire de nouveaux espaces plus intégrés ?At the beginning of the 21st century, urban spaces can be said to be in a stage of growth and radical transformation. Cities are highly expansive, both in scale and scope. The spatial configuration of urban spaces is, however, becoming more and more decentralised and fragmentary. The traditional dichotomy between urban hierarchy and periphery is disappearing. New metropolitan spaces are characterised by distance related processes of social and economic specialisation and segmentation, and often also by splitting social polarisation. The planning agendas in city regions are trying to make add more balance to the

  2. [African population growth: status and prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabutin, D

    1991-01-01

    Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and

  3. A new population growth map with variable coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannussis, A.

    1986-01-01

    In the present paper it is investigated a simple population growth map with variable coefficients. Moreover, it is studied the new population map of the form xsub(j+1) = axsub(j) (1/(1 + bxsub(j)) -1/(1 + cxsub(j))), c not= b, j = 0, 1,..., which is transformed in an equivalent logistic map

  4. Internal migration effectiveness and income effectiveness in the most populous cities in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambinakudige, Shrinidhi; Parisi, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    In this study, migration data compiled by the Internal Revenue Serve (IRS) and the US Census Bureau for 2006-07 were used to analyse internal migration patterns using migration and income effectiveness for the counties containing the 25 most populous cities in the United States. The results indicated that both large metropolitan and rural counties have lost population and income due to migration. Small metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties closer to cities gained population and income. Counties in South Florida attracted a large number of higher-income migrants from the largest cities in the US. In the last 13 years, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, the three most populous cities in the US, had negative migration effectiveness. Suburban areas and second-tier cities continued to attract people from large metropolitan areas.

  5. Suburbanization and sustainability in metropolitan Moscow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Robert J; Nigmatullina, Liliya

    2011-01-01

    Although Soviet-era urban-growth controls produced relatively sustainable metropolitan development patterns, low-density suburban sprawl has accelerated markedly in modern Russia. Distinctive features of Moscow's development history are its greenbelt, which dates from 1935 and is becoming increasingly fragmented, proliferation of satellite cities at the urban fringe, conversion of seasonal dachas into full-time residences, the very exclusive Rublevo Uspenskoe Highway development, and today's crippling traffic congestion. The recent economic crisis has slowed development and actually increased the supply of “economy-class” single-family homes, for which there is much pent-up desire but insufficient credit availability to meet the demand. A renewed commitment to sustainability's triple bottom line—environmental quality, equity, and economic prosperity—will require greater government transparency and fairness, stronger planning controls, and an expanded public transportation system.

  6. Truck transport of RAM: Risk effects of avoiding metropolitan areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1997-11-01

    In the transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), stakeholders are generally most concerned about risks in high population density areas along transportation routes because of the perceived high consequences of potential accidents. The most significant portions of a transcontinental route and an alternative examined previously were evaluated again using population density data derived from US Census Block data. This method of characterizing population that adjoins route segments offers improved resolution of population density variations, especially in high population density areas along typical transport routes. Calculated incident free doses and accident dose risks for these routes, and the rural, suburban and urban segments are presented for comparison of their relative magnitudes. The results indicate that modification of this route to avoid major metropolitan areas through use of non-Interstate highways increases total risk yet does not eliminate a relatively small urban component of the accident dose risk. This conclusion is not altered by improved resolution of route segments adjoining high density populations

  7. Municipal Revenue Generation and Development in the Calgary and Edmonton Metropolitan Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian W. Conger

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Municipal reliance on property taxes and the competing priorities of municipalities—in terms of where they plan and approve land development within their boundaries—in order to capture new property taxes, has led to political conflict between adjacent municipalities.1 Nowhere in Alberta is this more evident than in the Edmonton and Calgary metropolitan regions, where sustained high-levels of growth has led to the expansion of the core-cities, rapid residential development rates in peripheral urban centres and the rise urban-scale development in the rural municipal districts – spurring intrametropolitan competition, harsh words and hurt feelings amongst municipalities.2 In response to this ongoing conflict, the province and at times the municipalities themselves have developed successive regional planning frameworks over the past 60 years3 to guide development and encourage—and at times enforce—intermunicipal collaboration. In an exploration of the contemporary relationship between municipal finance and development patterns in the Calgary and Edmonton metropolitan regions, we use municipal property tax and building-permit data for new residential, commercial and industrial development to track the incidence of development since 1983 and the property tax rates for municipalities in both regions from 2001 to 2015. In looking at the tax data there is evidence of increasing competition among municipalities, in particular for non-residential development; however, the trends could also be consistent with collusion. In looking at the building permit data, although there has been a lot of development in the peripheral urban and rural municipalities, proportionately, growth and development has occurred overwhelmingly in the core-cities. Our findings point to a system where local development considerations in both metropolitan regions, and the municipal prerogative to set municipal tax rates to attract development, take precedence over the

  8. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

  9. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  10. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca J Laver

    Full Text Available Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis. The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  11. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  12. Reconceptualization Sexuality and Rethinking Homophobia in Metropolitan Campus Spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deniz, Caglar

    2017-01-01

    The Metropolitan city gives non-metropolitan students an opportunity to meet new social groups. In this article, the perceptions of sexuality of those students who come from provincial areas to a metropolitan city for university education are examined within a framework of semi-structured interviews. The study on which this article is based used a…

  13. Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005) which projected the African Population at 1,349 million by 2025 and 1,969 million by 2050. These figures are so frightening that the use of communication to contribute to checking the high population growth is challenged. We discuss ...

  14. Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish

  15. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  16. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

  17. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  18. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  19. [Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, X Y

    1981-02-01

    In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.

  20. Renewed growth in hospital inpatient cost since 1998: variation across metropolitan areas and leading clinical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Bernard S; Wong, Herbert S; Steiner, Claudia A

    2006-03-01

    To use disaggregated data about metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and clinical conditions to better describe the variation in cost increases and explore some of the hypothesized influences. The study uses the state inpatient databases from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, containing all discharges from hospitals in 172 MSAs in 1998 and 2001. The discharge summary information was combined with standardized hospital accounting files, surveys of managed care plans, MSA demographics, and state data pertaining to caps on medical malpractice awards. The analysis used descriptive comparisons and multivariate regressions of admission rate and cost per case in 9 leading disease categories across the MSAs. The increase in hospital input prices and changes in severity of illness were controlled. Metropolitan statistical areas with higher HMO market penetration continued to show lower admission rates, no less so in 2001 than in 1998. A cap on malpractice awards appeared to restrain admissions, but the net effect on hospital cost per adult eroded for those states with the most experience with award caps. Higher admission rates and increase in cost were found in several disease categories.

  1. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Kristinsson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

  2. First epidemiological report of feline heartworm infection in the Barcelona metropolitan area (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Carretón, Elena; García-Guasch, Laín; Expósito, Jordi; Armario, Belén; Morchón, Rodrigo; Simón, Fernando

    2014-11-12

    The metropolitan area of Barcelona is the most densely populated metropolitan area on the Mediterranean coast. Several studies have reported the presence of canine heartworm disease in this region; however, there are no published epidemiological data regarding feline heartworm in this region and the prevalence in this species remains unknown. Serum samples from 758 cats living in the metropolitan area of Barcelona (Spain) were collected between 2012 and 2013. To establish the seroprevalence of heartworm infection in cats, serological techniques for anti-D.immitis and anti-Wolbachia antibody detection were used while a commercial ELISA test kit was used to detect circulating D.immitis antigens. Of these samples, 11.47% were positive to D.immitis and Wolbachia surface protein antibodies and 0.26% were positive to D.immitis antigens. The higher antibody seroprevalences were found in the areas that follow the courses of the rivers Llobregat and Anoia (Baix Llobregat 11.5%, Vallés Occidental 13.2%; Barcelonés 11.7%) where humidity and vegetation favour the development of the mosquito vectors. High antibody seroprevalences were also found in the urban areas (Barcelona city 13.1%; Sabadell 15.5%), which demonstrates that city cats are also at risk from D.immitis infection. Generally, in Spain cats do not receive prophylactic treatment and therefore the risk of infection is higher in this species than in dogs. Adequate prophylactic plans should be implemented in the feline population. This is the first epidemiologic study on feline heartworm infection to be carried out in continental Spain.

  3. Metropolitan City: the Italian experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Franco Ferrari

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the fact that the definitions of territorial organization are no longer adequate, the concept of “metropolitan areas” arises as a solution to resolve such deficit. This study shows the beginnings of this figure in Italy and the problems of identification and delimitation caused by the abstraction of the norms, therefore entailing a difficult implementation of the concept of metropolitan cities. By identifying these obstacles, this paper presents an analysis where it is possible to ensure compliance with this new reality in the near future.

  4. Metropolitan Optical Networks 1995 Annual Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Martin; Jouanno, Jean-Marc; Malone, Kevin

    1996-01-01

    The annual report describes the research carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1995. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners including DTU is involved in the project.......The annual report describes the research carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1995. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners including DTU is involved in the project....

  5. Perceptions by medical students of their educational environment for obstetrics and gynaecology in metropolitan and rural teaching sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmody, Dianne F; Jacques, Angela; Denz-Penhey, Harriet; Puddey, Ian; Newnham, John P

    2009-12-01

    Medical student education in Western Australia is expanding to secondary level metropolitan hospitals and rural sites to accommodate workforce demands and increasing medical student numbers. To determine if students' perceptions of the teaching environment for obstetrics and gynaecology differ between tertiary, secondary level metropolitan hospitals and rural sites, and to determine if students' perceptions of their learning environment are associated with improved academic performance. An evaluation was conducted of medical students' perceptions of their learning environment during an obstetrics and gynaecology program at a variety of sites across metropolitan and rural Western Australia. The evaluation was based on the Dundee Ready Education Environmental Measure (DREEM) questionnaire. There were no significant differences in students' perceptions of their learning environment between the tertiary hospital, combined programs involving a tertiary and secondary metropolitan hospital, rural sites with a population of more than 25,000 and rural sites with a population less than 25,000 people. Perceptions were similar in male and female students. The overall mean score for all perceptions of the learning environment in obstetrics and gynaecology were in the range considered to be favorable. Higher scores of perceptions of the learning environment were associated positively with the measures of academic achievement in the clinical, but not written, examination. Medical students' perceptions of their learning environment in obstetrics and gynaecology were not influenced by the geographical site of delivery or their gender but were positively related to higher academic achievement. Providing appropriate academic and clinical support systems have been put in place the education of medical students can be extended outside major hospitals and into outer metropolitan and rural communities without any apparent reduction in perceptions of the quality of their learning

  6. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  7. Initiatives towards Carbon Neutrality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karna Dahal

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Carbon neutrality represents one climate strategy adopted by many cities, including the city of Helsinki and the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. This study examines initiatives adopted by the Helsinki metropolitan area aimed at reducing energy-related carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality through future actions. Various sectorial energy consumption rates per year and carbon emissions from various sectors within the city of Helsinki and the metropolitan area were extracted from an online database and re-calculated (in GWh, MWh/inhabitant and MtCO2e, KtCO2e/inhabitant. We employed a backcasting scenario method to explore the various carbon reduction measures in the Helsinki metropolitan area. About 96% of the emissions produced in the Helsinki metropolitan area are energy-based. District heating represents the primary source of emissions, followed by transportation and electricity consumption, respectively. We also found that accomplishing the carbon reduction strategies of the Helsinki metropolitan area by 2050 remains challenging. Technological advancement for clean and renewable energy sources, smart policies and raising awareness resulting in behavioral changes greatly affect carbon reduction actions. Thus, strong political commitments are also required to formulate and implement stringent climate actions.

  8. Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Braumann, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

  9. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  10. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  11. The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

    2012-01-01

    The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

  12. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  13. 1 2 POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DILEMMA OF RURAL LIFE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Ike

    The high as well as the unrestrained population growth rate of the country has, to a ... that it stimulates business and general economic growth cycles and therefore .... The privilege and opportunity of acquiring functional education, for instance ...

  14. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  15. The Spatial Changes of Land Use in the Bucharest Metropolitan Area 1970s – 2000s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Simion

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The article explore the dimension of spatial changes of land use in the Bucharest Metropolitan Area (BMA over the past forty years. Using GIS-based land use data sets of the years 1970, 1990 and 2000, combining with statistical data, we attempted to quantify the spatial pattern of land use changes in the BMA. Our findings indicate that most significantly changes occurred with arable lands that have been reduced from 77% of total metropolitan area in 1970 to 71.3% in 2000 and in same time the built up area increase from 6.2% in 1970 to 10.4% in 2000. Vineyards and orchards suffered a reduced of their spread. In the case of vineyards the percentage of total area decrease from 2.7% in 1970 to 0.8% and regarding orchards from 1.1% in 1970 to 0.6% in 2000. The growth of built up indicate the urban influence of Bucharest city on it the large metropolitan area. The decrease of vineyards and orchards can be correlated with agrarian reform passed after the fall of socialist economic system that generated many problems for the farmers that cannot continue to cultivate the land with these kinds of cultures. These findings have implication with the futures strategies on urban and metropolitan planning in this area.

  16. Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2007-01-01

    The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

  17. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, M S

    1987-01-01

    Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and

  18. Illicit Drug Use, Illicit Drug Use Disorders, and Drug Overdose Deaths in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas - United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, Karin A; Jones, Christopher M; Ballesteros, Michael F

    2017-10-20

    Drug overdoses are a leading cause of injury death in the United States, resulting in approximately 52,000 deaths in 2015. Understanding differences in illicit drug use, illicit drug use disorders, and overall drug overdose deaths in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas is important for informing public health programs, interventions, and policies. Illicit drug use and drug use disorders during 2003-2014, and drug overdose deaths during 1999-2015. The National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) collects information through face-to-face household interviews about the use of illicit drugs, alcohol, and tobacco among the U.S. noninstitutionalized civilian population aged ≥12 years. Respondents include residents of households and noninstitutional group quarters (e.g., shelters, rooming houses, dormitories, migratory workers' camps, and halfway houses) and civilians living on military bases. NSDUH variables include sex, age, race/ethnicity, residence (metropolitan/nonmetropolitan), annual household income, self-reported drug use, and drug use disorders. National Vital Statistics System Mortality (NVSS-M) data for U.S. residents include information from death certificates filed in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Cases were selected with an underlying cause of death based on the ICD-10 codes for drug overdoses (X40-X44, X60-X64, X85, and Y10-Y14). NVSS-M variables include decedent characteristics (sex, age, and race/ethnicity) and information on intent (unintentional, suicide, homicide, or undetermined), location of death (medical facility, in a home, or other [including nursing homes, hospices, unknown, and other locations]) and county of residence (metropolitan/nonmetropolitan). Metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status is assigned independently in each data system. NSDUH uses a three-category system: Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) of ≥1 million persons; CBSA of illicit drugs, the prevalence was highest for the large metropolitan areas compared with

  19. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

  20. Forces Influencing Rural Community Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainey, Kenneth D.

    The paper briefly focuses on two questions: Can the recent growth trend be expected to continue into the future? and What does this imply as far as public policy and programs are concerned? Statistics on growth in the seventies suggest three possibilities: a change in the functions of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas; the decline of the city…

  1. Metropolitan Optical Networks 1996 Annual Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Martin; Jouanno, Jean-Marc; Malone, Kevin

    1997-01-01

    The report desribes the reasearch carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1996. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners are involved in the project including DTU, i.e. EMI and MIC.......The report desribes the reasearch carried out in the ACTS-project METON (Metropolitan Optical Networks) in 1996. L.M. Ericsson is prime contractor and 12 partners are involved in the project including DTU, i.e. EMI and MIC....

  2. Coronary heart disease prevalence and occupational structure in U.S. metropolitan areas: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michimi, Akihiko; Ellis-Griffith, Gregory; Nagy, Christine; Peterson, Tina

    2013-05-01

    This research explored the link between coronary heart disease (CHD) prevalence and metropolitan-area level occupational structure among 137 metropolitan/micropolitan statistical areas (MMSA) in the United States. Using data from the 2006-2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2007 County Business Patterns, logistic mixed models were developed to estimate CHD prevalence between MMSAs controlling for individual-level socioeconomic characteristics and various types of occupational structure. Results showed that CHD prevalence was lower in MMSAs where their economy was dominated by 'tourism and resort' and 'the quaternary sector' and higher in MMSAs dominated by 'manufacturing', 'transportation and warehousing', and 'mining'. MMSA-level effects on CHD were found in 'tourism and resort' and 'the quaternary sector' having lower risk and 'mining' having higher risk of CHD. Although these effects prevailed in many MMSAs, some MMSAs did not fit into these effects. Additional analysis indicated a possible link between metropolitan population loss and higher CHD prevalence especially in the coal mining region of the Appalachian Mountains. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, G.B.; Buchholz, W.; Hartwick, J.M.; Mitra, T.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the Dasgupta–Heal–Solow–Stiglitz (DHSS) model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence: if an efficient path has constant (gross and net of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a

  4. Crescimento populacional, ocupação e desemprego dos jovens: a experiência recente da Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre Population growth, labor by youth and unemployment: the recent experience of the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raul Luís Assumpção Bastos

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo investiga o quanto o tamanho relativo da população juvenil na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre (RMPA afetou a ocupação e o desemprego desse segmento no período 1993-2004. Esta questão ganha relevância no presente tanto pelo fato de que diversos estudos têm apontado a ocorrência do fenômeno de uma onda jovem nas principais regiões metropolitanas do país, nos anos 90, quanto pela correlata observação de uma tendência à elevação do desemprego entre os jovens no período. Assim, primeiramente, é feita uma síntese dos argumentos a respeito dos efeitos do tamanho relativo da coorte juvenil sobre a situação deste grupo populacional no mercado de trabalho. Em seguida, identificam-se as principais tendências da população e da força de trabalho juvenil no mercado de trabalho da RMPA, bem como se estimam os efeitos do tamanho relativo da coorte juvenil sobre a ocupação e o desemprego desse grupo populacional.This article studies to what extent the relative size of the young population in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (RMPA affected employment and unemployment of this group between 1993 and 2004. This question has taken on considerable importance, based on two different factors. The first is the fact that a number of studies have indicated the occurrence of the phenomenon of a wave of youth in the largest metropolitan areas in the country during the 1990s. Secondly, the concomitant trend toward higher unemployment among youth during this same period. The article is organized in the following way: after the Introduction, Section 2 presents a synthesis of the arguments regarding the effects of the relative size of the cohort of youth on the situation of this group in the labor market. Section 3 identifies the main trends of the younger population within the labor market in the RMPA and estimates the effects of the relative size of this cohort on the employment and unemployment of this population group

  5. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  6. Do Class III patients have a different growth spurt than the general population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun-Sik; Lee, Shin-Jae; An, Hongseok; Donatelli, Richard E; Kim, Soo-Hwan

    2012-11-01

    Understanding the timing and length of the growth spurt of Class III prognathic patients is fundamental to the strategy of interceptive orthopedic orthodontics as well as to the timing of orthognathic surgery. Consequently, this study was undertaken to determine whether there are any significant differences in the stature growth pattern of Class III subjects compared with non-Class III subjects and the general population. Twelve-year longitudinal stature growth data were collected for 402 randomly selected adolescents in the general population, 55 Class III mandibular prognathic patients, and 37 non-Class III patients. The growth data were analyzed by using the traditional linear interpolation method and nonlinear growth functions. The 6 stature growth parameters were measured: age at takeoff, stature at takeoff, velocity at takeoff, age at peak height velocity, stature at peak height velocity, and velocity at peak height velocity. Comparisons in the stature growth parameters and 15 cephalometric variables among the general population, Class III subjects, and non-Class III subjects were made with multivariate analysis. Patients with Class III prognathism did not have different growth parameters compared with Class II subjects or the general population. This study does not allow meaningful conclusions with regard to the relationship of mandibular size and stature growth pattern. The application of nonlinear growth curves vs the traditional linear interpolation method was also discussed. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  8. Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Thermal Environment and Air Quality in Taipei Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juang, J. Y.; Sun, C. H.; Jiang, J. A.; Wen, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    The urban heat island effect (UHI) caused by the regional-to-global environmental changes, dramatic urbanization, and shifting in land-use compositions has becoming an important environmental issue in recent years. In the past century, the coverage of urban area in Taipei Basin has dramatically increasing by ten folds. The strengthen of UHI effect significantly enhances the frequency of warm-night effect, and strongly influences the thermal environment of the residents in the Greater Taipei Metropolitan. In addition, the urban expansions due to dramatic increasing in urban populations and traffic loading significantly impacts the air quality and causes health issue in Taipei. In this study, the main objective is to quantify and characterize the temporal and spatial distributions of thermal environmental and air quality in the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area by using monitoring data from Central Weather Bureau, Environmental Protection Administration. In addition, in this study, we conduct the analysis on the distribution of physiological equivalent temperature in the micro scale in the metropolitan area by using the observation data and quantitative simulation to investigate how the thermal environment is influenced under different conditions. Furthermore, we establish a real-time mobile monitoring system by using wireless sensor network to investigate the correlation between the thermal environment, air quality and other environmental factors, and propose to develop the early warning system for heat stress and air quality in the metropolitan area. The results from this study can be integrated into the management and planning system, and provide sufficient and important background information for the development of smart city in the metropolitan area in the future.

  9. Assessing post apartheid settlement growth patterns using remote sensing and GIWS: A case study of Cape Town metropolitan area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pillay, DL

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The significant land-use change in South African metropolitan areas, due to urbanization, created challenges of spatial development planning, infrastructure and service provision. This paper outlines the change detection analysis method applied...

  10. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  11. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  12. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2005-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  13. [Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1986-01-01

    The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

  14. Population ageing alongside health care spending growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakovljević Mihajlo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silver Tsunami or population ageing has become a globally widespread phenomenon. The purpose of this review is to observe its dynamics and consequences from a local Balkan perspective. The main drivers of this unique demographic evolution are extended longevity, improved early childhood survival, absorption of women into the labor markets, and consequences of sexual revolution leading to falling female fertility. This process lasting well over a century is taking its toll on contemporary societies. Major side effects are shrinking young labor force and growing pool of elderly and retired citizens in many countries. This equation tends to worsen further in the future threatening long-term financial sustainability of public social and health insurance funds. Notable health expenditure growth, accelerating worldwide since the 1960s, is to a large degree attributable to ageing itself. Growing share of senior citizens increases demand for medical services and costs of health care provision. Home-based care provided by the family caregivers presents another important reality putting a huge burden on modern communities. Serbs are no exception in this landscape. Historical demographic evolution of this nation gives a clear evidence of advanced and accelerated ageing, which is well documented in post-World War II era. This synthesis of rich published evidence shows clear upward parallel trend between the pace of population aging and the growth of health expenditure. National authorities shall be forced to consider reform of the current health care financing pattern inherited from the demographic growth era. This might be the only way to smooth out the impact of population ageing on the financial sustainability of the health system and long-term medical care in Serbia. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI 175014

  15. Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

  16. Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... density-dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of West Coast steenbras that make it extremely susceptible to overfishing; ...

  17. Population Growth Rate: Teaching Guide. Measures of Progress Poster Kit Number 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    World Bank, Washington, DC.

    This teaching guide accompanies the Population Growth Rate poster kit which is designed to teach students about population growth differences between rich and poor nations and about what people in developing countries are doing to help improve their quality of life. The guide is designed for use with: (1) a poster map of the world providing social…

  18. 40 CFR 81.17 - Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Regions § 81.17 Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality Control Region consists of the following territorial area (including the territorial... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Los Angeles Air Quality...

  19. Haphazard commercialization: a potential threat to sustainable commercial development in metropolitan cities? The case of Lahore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadeem, O.; Hameed, R.

    2005-01-01

    The demand of urban space for commercial development due to unprecedented population growth has surpassed the planned supply delivered by planning agencies in metropolitan cities of Pakistan. As a corollary to that, conversion of residential land use into various types of commercial activities has sprung up particularly along major roads of planned residential areas and arterial roads of cities. These conversions have proceeded, both with and without official consent, largely in a haphazard manner without following a coherent strategy. This has resulted in acute parking problems, reduction in traffic capacity of roads and resultant increase in congestion, energy use, air and noise pollution, and burden on utility services. Permitting conversion of land use in a haphazard manner seems not only a departure from planning principles but also jeopardizing the spatial structure of cities causing serious environmental repercussions. This paper presents evidence to the above observations through a detailed study of the environmental impact of commercial development in Lahore. The study is based on detailed land use, socio-economic, traffic, and parking surveys in carefully selected sample of three major housing schemes variously located in Lahore. The paper argues that weak development control, out-dated master plan, and inappropriate commercialization policies of the Government have lead to unsustainable pattern of commercial development even in planned residential areas. The findings of the study call for formulation of environmentally friendly commercialization policy. This will also involve redefining basic land use allocation standards and improvements in the design considerations so as to promote sustainable development of commercial areas in metropolitan cities. (author)

  20. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  1. Youthification in the Metropolitan Area of Cluj

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Cocheci

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This research exercise aims to identify all areas affected by what is now known as ‘youthification’ in the Metropolitan Area of Cluj. Broadly speaking, an area touched by youthification witnesses a massive arrival of young adults, who invest in housing, but only remain there until they age. Youthification is usually the second phase within an encompassing process of gentrification. To gain a clearer picture of this phenomenon, we employed a snapshot of the situation recorded by the Population and Housing Census of 2011. Using this image as a starting point, we then applied statistical thresholds aimed at measuring the presence and intensity of youthification within different areas. Thereafter, we looked at areas exhibiting the same level of youthification, in order to find those common traits of their young adult inhabitants that might prove relevant for their choices in matters of housing. Once completed, our efforts resulted in the first map showing the areas affected by youthification within the Metropolitan Area of Cluj. In addition, we reached the following conclusion: Young adults who live in the city are more likely to still be enrolled in a form of education and less likely to be married or to have children than those who live in the suburbs or in rural areas. This observation implies that there might be some hidden dependency relations, which are at work in shaping the choice of housing.

  2. Rapid population growth and fragile environments: the sub-Saharan African and south Asian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J C; Caldwell, P

    1994-02-18

    Case studies of the world's two poorest regions, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, were used to illustrate the compromised standard of living of the poor and environmental damage due to continued rapid population growth. The conclusion was that the livelihoods of the poor should not be endangered for preserving the living standards of richer people. Nations must not ignore the challenges of reducing population growth as fast as can be achieved. The transitional period over the next 50 years is the main concern, because population growth rates will be slowing. Rural population growth is expected to decline from 60% of total population growth in South Asia to 7% between 2000 and 2025; similarly the decline in sub-Saharan Africa would be from 50% to 15%. Over the past 30 years, food production in South Asia has kept pace with population growth. Sub-Saharan Africa has adopted food importation to meet demand. African problems are a low resource base, faster population growth, and the fact that governments and individuals are too poor to maintain soil fertility. Long-term studies of how much soil depletion will occur are not available for these regions, and local area studies are not as pessimistic. Transition policies are needed to put "people first in terms of engineered or directed population and ecological change." The six main issues are the following: 1) the Brundtland Commission appropriately identified poverty as the main cause and effect of environmental degradation because of the threat to survival; 2) the verdict is still out about whether food production will keep pace with population growth through economic growth and investment in agriculture; 3) empirical research is needed to examine local social and regulatory institutions and the possibility of reinforcing these mechanisms rather than instituting central controls; 4) central coercion or modernizing economic policies can destroy local level controls; 5) famine is a complex ecological phenomenon and the

  3. Population Growth, Available Resources, and Quality of Life: China's Post-Reform Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tim Futing Liao; Hua Qin

    2012-01-01

    Two opposing intellectual traditions and their contem- porary developments regarding the relations among population, available resources, and quality of life as reflected in economic growth are reviewed. What is at issue is whether population growth is detrimental to or beneficial for economic development. Neither of the extreme views gives a complete picture of the interplay among population, resources, and quality of life. Following previ- ous literature on the topic, this paper establishes a more balanced approach that considers the function linking population and quality of life not constant but variable and regards the limitedness of resources as not absolute but relative to regions and societies. The proposed approach is more flexible in better explaining the relation between population and economic growth. China is examined as a case in point to shed light on the interaction of population growth, economic development, and available resources, and its recent post-economic reform experiences showcase the appropriateness of the synthetic approach.

  4. Morbidity, rickets and long-bone growth in post-medieval Britain--a cross-population analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhasi, R; Shaw, P; White, B; Ogden, A R

    2006-01-01

    Vitamin D deficiency rickets is associated with skeletal deformities including swollen rib junctions, bowing of the legs, and the flaring and fraying of the wrist and long-bone metaphyses. There is, however, scarce information on the direct effect of rickets on skeletal growth in either present or past populations. The study investigated the effect of vitamin D deficiency rickets on long-bone growth in two post-medieval skeletal populations from East London (Broadgate and Christ Church Spitalfields). Subsequently, inter-population growth variations in relation to non-specific environmental stress (dental enamel defects), industrialization, urbanization and socio-economic status during infancy (birth to 3 years) and early childhood (3-7 years) were examined. Data on long-bone diaphyseal length dimensions and stress indicators of 234 subadults from Anglo-Saxon, late medieval and post-medieval archaeological skeletal samples were analysed using both linear and non-linear growth models. Rickets had no effect on the growth curves for any of the long bones studied. However, pronounced variations in growth between the four populations were noted, mainly during infancy. The diaphyseal length of long bones of Broadgate were significantly smaller-per-age than those of Spitalfields and the other samples up to the age of 4 years, and were associated with a high prevalence of enamel defects during early infancy. Socio-economic status, rather than urbanization, industrialization or rickets, was the central factor behind the observed differences in growth among the post-medieval populations. The observed inter-population growth variations were only significant during infancy.

  5. Motorways in Metropolitan Areas: The Northwestern Growth of Florence and the Urban Use of Motorway A1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Cutini

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The recent urban growth of Florence was mainly oriented northward, thus determining the urbanization of the flatland and the inclusion within a unique conurbation of a number of pre-existing urban nuclei. Over time, the congestion of the inner core has caused more and more prominent activities to shift towards this developing area, which is today one of the most attractive parts of the whole settlement, counterbalancing the representativeness and the touristic attractiveness of the historic center of Florence. This paper is concerned with the use of space syntax in order to reconstruct the genesis of the configurational geography of Florence. Configurational values at different dates will be cross-referenced with vehicular traffic data, so as to pinpoint the actual inclusion of the motorway A1, touching Florence on its western side, within the urban grid of Florence and its influence in the distribution of local traffic flows. Aside from this case study, this method can be extended to the general issue of the management of motorways in metropolitan areas. More in general, this approach is proposed as a suitable tool for interconnecting spatial issues and traffic questions, so as to concur in bridging the gap between urban design, focused on the morphologic features of blocks and buildings, and transport analysis, strictly concerned with the distribution of movement flows on the street network.

  6. Accessibility, location, and employment center growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between accessibility and the : growth of employment centers in order to improve our understanding of how transportation : investments influence the spatial organization of metropolitan area...

  7. Cancer incidence and mortality in the Bucaramanga metropolitan area, 2003-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uribe, Claudia; Osma, Sonia; Herrera, Víctor

    2012-10-01

    Cancer is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) make possible to estimate the burden of this condition. To estimate cancer incidence and mortality rates in the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area (BMA) during 2003-2007. Incident cases of invasive cancer diagnosed during 2003-2007 were identified from the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area PBCR (BMA-PBCR). Population counts and mortality were obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics (NADS). We estimated total and cancer-specific crude incidence and mortality rates by age group and sex, as well as age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR(W)) and mortality (ASMR(W)) rates. Statistical analyses were conducted using CanReg4 and Stata/IC 10.1. We identified 8,225 new cases of cancer excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (54.3% among women). Of all cases, 6,943 (84.4%) were verified by microscopy and 669 (8.1%) were detected only by death certificate. ASIR(W) for all invasive cancers was 162.8 per 100,000 women and 177.6 per 100,000 men. Breast, cervix, colorectal, stomach and thyroid were the most common types of cancer in women. In men, the corresponding malignancies were prostate, stomach, colorectal, lung and lymphoma. ASMR(W) was 84.5 per 100,000 person-years in women and 106.2 per 100,000 person-years in men. Breast and stomach cancer ranked first as causes of death in those groups, respectively. Overall, mortality rates in our region are higher than national estimates possibly due to limited effectiveness of secondary prevention strategies. Our work emphasizes the importance of maintaining high-quality, nationwide PBCRs.

  8. Appropriate Urban Livability Indicators for Metropolitan Johor, Malaysia via Expert-Stakeholder Approach: a Delphi technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Gallares Pampanga

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Metro Johor is one of the fast emerging metropolitan urban centers where its current progress and spatial transformation have made it a key player in the economic growth of Malaysia. The recent creation of the Iskandar Malaysia, an economic strategy which aims to be a global player as potential destination for high-value investments, has certainly added social, environmental and economic stress to its urban citizens. This paper intends to develop urban livability indicators for Metropolitan Johor anchored on the changing urban complexion in the face of climate change, economic, governance, social and cultural dynamics, among others. The urban livability conundrum of Metro Johor illustrates that indicators are imperative, especially policy-based indicators, which would aid to scale-up the desired progress according to urban livability metrics. The study involves iterative 3-rounds of Delphi blind survey with Likert scale’s degree of agreement, and finally assigning weightings to each sub-indicator. Thus, with the expert-stakeholders involvement, constituting broad-sectoral community representation, a robust and appropriate urban livability index for Metro Johor was generated - a comprehensive framework yet prospective benchmark in appropriating timely policy decisions that would redound to the benefit of urban citizens ensuring a livable Metropolitan Johor.

  9. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Murray P

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

  10. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  11. Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  12. Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

    OpenAIRE

    Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

  13. On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-09-01

    The growth dynamics of complex organizations have attracted much interest of econophysicists and sociophysicists in recent years. However, most of the studies are done for developed countries. We investigate the growth dynamics of the primary industry and the population of 2079 counties in mainland China using the data from the China County Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2006. We find that the annual growth rates are distributed according to Student’s t distribution with the tail exponent less than 2. We find power-law relationships between the sample standard deviation of the growth rates and the initial size. The scaling exponent is less than 0.5 for the primary industry and close to 0.5 for the population.

  14. 49 CFR 613.100 - Metropolitan transportation planning and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... programming. 613.100 Section 613.100 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued... Metropolitan Transportation Planning and Programming § 613.100 Metropolitan transportation planning and programming. The regulations in 23 CFR 450, subpart C, shall be followed in complying with the requirements of...

  15. Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2017-03-01

    This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

  16. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  17. Planning Assignments of the Italian Metropolitan Cities. Early Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mazzeo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The last stage of the process of establishment of the Italian Metropolitan Cities, which took place in 2014, follows of a few decades the start of this institutional reform. In 1990, in fact, the Act 142 (Local Autonomies Reform had planned metropolitan areas as the administrative organization more suitable to provide these territories of structures for the management and the strategic development alike the best international models. The paper proposes to analyse the first activities taken by the Italian Metropolitan Cities in the sector of territorial government, three years after the enactment in 2014 of Act nr. 56.  Focal point of the analysis is the jurisdiction in the formation of two plans (the Strategic Plan and the Metropolitan Territorial Plan and the following relationships among them, in the logical assumption that between them a necessary and strict consistency there should be. In the first part, the paper analyses some factors characterizing the metropolitan areas and the functions that the law assigns to the new institution in the territorial government sector. The second part outlines the updated situation with regard to the formation of the sectoral tools (Strategic Plan, Territorial Plan and homogeneous zones. The third part analyses the progresses in three Metropolitan Cities taken as sample (Milan, Genoa and Bologna and, in general, to those of Southern Italy. In the last part, the paper exposes some considerations regarding the issues raised in the article, particularly about the innovativeness of the tools and the timeline for the implementation of the act.

  18. Evaluation of the air quality in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais: first results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moura, Igor Felipe Silva, E-mail: igorfelipedx@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (DEN/UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear; Cruz, Ananda Borjaille; Fonseca, Raquel Luiza M.; Barreto, Alberto Avellar; Menezes, Maria Angela de B.C., E-mail: abc@cdtn.br, E-mail: menezes@cdtn.br, E-mail: aab@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte presents many industrial activities related to several industries, mainly mining activities, besides the high population concentration, which also contributes to several industrial typologies due to the existence of qualified work and to the vicinity of a future consumer market. This concentration of the population also implies in a great number of vehicles and, consequently, in big traffic jams. The particulate material is one of the pollutants which cause higher environmental risk and it is a mixture of solid and liquid particles in the air which form aerosols. These aerosols, which contain organic and inorganic substances, vary of size, form, composition and origin. In order to characterize the quality of the airborne particulate matter and identify the pollutant sources, a research is being developing in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte. This paper is focused on presenting the methodology of sampling, determination of concentration of particulates, elemental concentration analysis by k{sub 0}-Neutron Activation method and meteorological analysis, related to two sampling points, one at CDTN/CNEN and other at UFMG. (author)

  19. Evaluation of the air quality in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais: first results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moura, Igor Felipe Silva

    2015-01-01

    The Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte presents many industrial activities related to several industries, mainly mining activities, besides the high population concentration, which also contributes to several industrial typologies due to the existence of qualified work and to the vicinity of a future consumer market. This concentration of the population also implies in a great number of vehicles and, consequently, in big traffic jams. The particulate material is one of the pollutants which cause higher environmental risk and it is a mixture of solid and liquid particles in the air which form aerosols. These aerosols, which contain organic and inorganic substances, vary of size, form, composition and origin. In order to characterize the quality of the airborne particulate matter and identify the pollutant sources, a research is being developing in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte. This paper is focused on presenting the methodology of sampling, determination of concentration of particulates, elemental concentration analysis by k 0 -Neutron Activation method and meteorological analysis, related to two sampling points, one at CDTN/CNEN and other at UFMG. (author)

  20. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  1. Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

    1998-11-01

    We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

  2. Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter Zeug

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

  3. Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland, R S

    1982-01-01

    The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the

  4. Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2013-03-01

    Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  6. 40 CFR 81.38 - Metropolitan Houston-Galveston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Houston-Galveston... Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.38 Metropolitan Houston-Galveston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Houston-Galveston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Texas) has been...

  7. Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

    2011-12-01

    The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic

  8. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Human Mobility in Manila Metropolitan Area with Person-Trip Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The metropolitan area can be regarded as a multi-functional structure consisting of plural coordinated urban nucleuses. This study aims to clarify the characteristics of urban nucleuses and a spatiotemporal pattern of human mobility in the Manila metropolitan area. Hourly density of human mobility from 00:00 to 24:00 in the whole study area is quantitatively studied. Urban nucleuses with six types: central city, business city, commuter town, south suburb, north suburb, and subcenter city, are identified. Differences of human mobility owing to different human behaviors or properties are also analyzed in 10 typical areas with different urban functions. Results prove that pattern of human mobility in each area depends on its human social division, population composition, infrastructure condition, and functional structure. This study provides an effective thinking on handling geo-tagged big data supported by MATLAB programming and GIS technology. Moreover, spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility also possesses a meaningful academic value for transport geography.

  9. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

  10. Selection for life-history traits to maximize population growth in an invasive marine species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaspers, Cornelia; Marty, Lise; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Species establishing outside their natural range, negatively impacting local ecosystems, are of increasing global concern. They often display life-history features characteristic for r-selected populations with fast growth and high reproduction rates to achieve positive population growth rates (r...

  11. non-metropolitan stars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Grigoryeva

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Capitals gather constellations of bright and creative people, attracting them from the peripheries. Tchekhov’s sisters were anxious to get to Moscow, d’Artagnan – to Paris. Evtushenko, Shukshin and Gaidai ascended to the climax of their glory, having moved to the capital. Vampilov, Rasputin and Astafiev became internationally famous without leaving their home grounds, but having joined in the metropolitan whirl. In this regard, the architectural profession differs greatly from the literary and cinematographic ones. The destinies of the masters who fulfilled themselves far from the capital are different but equally bright and unique. The Irkutsk “Varangians”of the sixtieth – Voronezhsky, Bukh and Pavlov – built up their relations with geography in a different way:someone came from the capitals just for a few years that became the brightest, the most fruitful and the most interesting years of his creative life. But someone stayed in the non-metropolitan city for a long time and even forever. This subsection contains certain examples of self-fulfillment in the cities distant from the capitals: Khabarovsk, Irkutsk, Bratsk, Krasnoyarsk, Kemerovo and Anzhero-Sudzhensk.

  12. Energy and the environment: the case of the Metropolitan area of Mexico City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazan N, G.

    1992-01-01

    The inefficient use of energy by the different types of consumers of the Metropolitan area of Mexico City (ZMCM, this means, Mexico city and the municipalities of the Estado de Mexico, which constitute a single economic population unit), is one of the main causes for the production of polluting emissions into the atmosphere, specially of nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide. This originates a deterioration of the environment, which injures the health of the population. As a consequence, the private and public sectors have been forced to establish programs in order to improve the use of energy, as well as to preserve the environment. (Author)

  13. Smart City, Metropolitan Areas and Competitiveness: the Case Study of Florence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmela Gargiulo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In several urban contexts, the definition of a new development process is arising and it is focused on the use and the application of new technologies in different areas of the urban system. Such new development process is aimed at increasing life quality and local communities wellness and at promoting the creation of a more efficient and more sustainable urban system, as well as at making it more competitive. The issue of the reorganization of metropolitan areas is combined with such process, following the recent approval of the Delrio Law that establishes the Metropolitan City in Italy, as government authority of the metropolitan areas. Smart City, Metropolitan Areas and Competitiveness are the three topics of this paper, which aim is the description of the most innovative politics and initiatives adopted in the Metropolitan City of Florence that is proposed as a case study where such topics are combined.

  14. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  15. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  16. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Tajul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.. Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1 were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI, yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1. Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1 and the maximum harvest index (HI compared to the plants in other treatments.

  17. 40 CFR 81.63 - Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.63 Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Fort Smith Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Arkansas-Oklahoma) has been revised to consist...

  18. Spatial change as drivers of risk and vulnerability in South African cities: Spatial trends in the three metropolitan cities of Gauteng

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pieterse, Amy

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Since 1994 the South African urban landscape has been changing as a result of fundamental social, economic and political transformations. Metropolitan cities, especially, face unique challenges because of the dynamism of urban populations. South...

  19. Geographically distinct Ceratophyllum demersum populations differ in growth, photosynthetic responses and phenotypic plasticity to nitrogen availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldgaard, Benita; Sorrell, Brian Keith; Olesen, Birgit

    2012-01-01

    from New Zealand (NZ) and a noninvasive population from Denmark (DK). The populations were compared with a focus on both morphological and physiological traits. The NZ population had higher relative growth rates (RGRs) and photosynthesis rates (Pmax) (range: RGR, 0.06–0.08 per day; Pmax, 200–395 µmol O......2 g–1 dry mass (DM) h–1) compared with the Danish population (range: RGR, 0.02–0.05 per day; Pmax, 88–169 µmol O2 g–1 DM h–1). The larger, faster-growing NZ population also showed higher plasticity than the DK population in response to nitrogen in traits important for growth. Hence, the observed...... differences in growth behaviour between the two populations are a result of genetic differences and differences in their level of plasticity. Here, we show that two populations of the same species from similar climates but different geographical areas can differ in several ecophysiological traits after growth...

  20. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...

  1. Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

    2018-05-29

    In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.

  2. [Network Analyses in Regional Health Care Research: Example of Dermatological Care in the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustin, J; Austermann, J; Erasmi, S

    2016-10-18

    Background: One of the overall objectives of the legislator is to ensure an overall "homogeneous", and easily accessible medical care for the population. The physician-patient ratio can be used to describe the regional health care situation. But this method does not provide information concerning the availability of, for instance, the nearest doctor. Therefore, further parameters such as accessibility must be taken into consideration. For this purpose, network analyses are an appropriate method. The objective of this study is to present methodological tools to evaluate the healthcare situation in the metropolitan region of Hamburg, primarily focusing on accessibility using dermatologists as an example. Methods: Analyzing data of 20 counties, the geographical distribution of N=357 dermatologists and the physician-patient ratio were calculated. In a second step, a network analysis regarding accessibility was performed. In order to calculate accessibility, address data (physicians) were transformed into coordinates, consisting of defined places (N=303) and restrictions (e. g. speed, turn restrictions) of the network. The calculation of population-based accessibility is based on grid cells for the population density. Results: Despite adequacy of the overall medical situation, differences in the availability of the nearest dermatologists in the metropolitan region are remarkable, particularly when use of public transport is taken into consideration. In some counties, over 60% of the population require at least one hour to get to the nearest dermatologist using public transportation. In rural regions within the metropolitan area are particularly affected. Conclusion: The network analysis has shown that the choice and availability of transportation in combination with the location (rural/urban) is essential for health care access. Especially elderly people in rural areas with restricted mobility are at a disadvantage. Therefore, modern health care approaches (e

  3. Zoonotic disease transmission associated with feral cats in a metropolitan area: A geospatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taetzsch, S J; Bertke, A S; Gruszynski, K R

    2018-06-01

    Feral cats raise public health concerns due to their large population numbers and ability to harbour pathogens that cause disease in people, pets, and wildlife. Information regarding the potential for feral cats to intersect with areas frequented by humans is lacking. This study examined the potential for feral cats and human territories to overlap in the Richmond metropolitan area of Central Virginia. Feral cats (n = 275) were trapped for monthly trap-neuter-release (TNR) clinics from July to November 2016. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to map feral cat trapping locations, elementary and preschools, public parks, and community gardens, and to evaluate the potential for cat interaction with these areas, presuming a maximum habitat radius of 0.44 miles. We found that 8.0% of feral cats in the Richmond metropolitan area had potential to range onto public elementary or preschool property, and 81.5% of feral cats trapped in Richmond City had potential to roam into one or more places of interest, including elementary and preschool grounds, public parks, and community gardens. This provides public health, veterinary, and human health professionals with important information that can be used to focus resources in an effort to reduce zoonosis associated with feral cat populations. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  4. The Philippines: integrated planning for balanced urban growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-12-01

    During the past 80 years, the proportion of the Philippine population living in urban areas has nearly tripled, from 13% at the beginning of the 20th century to 36% in 1980. The number of people living in urban areas multipled 17-fold over this period. Currently, an estimated 17 million people live in urban areas, and this number is expected to reach 30 million by the year 2000. Migration from rural areas has been an important component of urban growth, but it has not been the principal one. Natural increase accounted for 54% of total urban growth in the 1960s and 1970s. A combination of reclassification and migration accounted for the rest. Big cities did not grow as rapidly as small cities, since their growth was generated largely by urban inmigration. Small cities tended to grow faster due to more natural increase than to inmigration. Philippine urbanization has been marked by increasing primacy. Metropolitan Manila, the largest city, has more than quadrupled in size since 1950. The phenomenon of primacy has been the cumulative consequence of historical, demographic, political, and socioeconomic factors. It may also have resulted from growth policies which unintentionally and indirectly favored the premier city. For national planners, the issue of urbanization in the Philippines is closely intertwined with the country's development objectives, particularly those of reducing poverty and attaining a more equitable distribution of income and wealth. The integration of population growth and distribution trends into the planning process is very important. Efforts to actively advocate this approach at various planning levels have been initiated. More must be learned about population and development dynamics, and planning capabilities at all levels must be improved.

  5. Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

  6. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  7. Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    Apr 28, 2016 ... Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ... Learn more about what drives DRC's urban violence and how it is linked to poverty ... ​Youth violence and the shift of land disputes from rural communities into ...

  8. Sexual Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors of an Ethnically Diverse Sample of Community College Students in Metropolitan New York.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMarzo, Jenine

    This study investigated the association among select socio-cultural variables and sexual knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors with a diverse population of metropolitan New York community college students. The Sexual Knowledge, Attitude, and Behavior Test survey instrument was administered to 338 students between the ages of 17 and 26 in their…

  9. Multiespacialidades metropolitanas e construção social do lugar – rumos para a sustentabilidade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina de Araújo Lima

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The metropolitan region of Curitiba – MRC – contains several spatial configurations and, besides having the third automobile industry of the country; it is currently the only metropolitan region with a population growth rate higher than the national average. Between 1970 and 2000, it had the highest geometric growth rate among metropolitan regions in Brazil: it grew 2.13% in its core and 4.18% in the suburbs(IBGE, 2000. However, last places are where 90% of the population live. There, social and urban structures are underdeveloped and the population number has risen three times in the last twenty years. Whereas in Curitiba 12.46% of the houses have an income around US $80 per month, in the suburbs this proportion rises to 50% or more. Discussing sustainability, it is necessary to understand the environmental dimension as a social and natural whole. In this paper analyze some aspects of the population conditions in the nearest neighborhood of Curitiba, where an improvement of the locus sense of place could contribute to a metropolitan and urban sustainability.

  10. 23 CFR 450.336 - Applicability of NEPA to metropolitan transportation plans and programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the Secretary concerning a metropolitan transportation plan or TIP developed through the processes... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Applicability of NEPA to metropolitan transportation... TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND RESEARCH PLANNING ASSISTANCE AND STANDARDS Metropolitan Transportation Planning and...

  11. Replacing car trips by increasing bike and public transport in the greater Barcelona metropolitan area: a health impact assessment study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas-Rueda, D; de Nazelle, A; Teixidó, O; Nieuwenhuijsen, M J

    2012-11-15

    Estimate the health risks and benefits of mode shifts from car to cycling and public transport in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain. We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA), creating 8 different scenarios on the replacement of short and long car trips, by public transport or/and bike. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality and change in life expectancy related to two different assessments: A) the exposure of travellers to physical activity, air pollution to particulate matter car trips, starting and ending in Barcelona City, to cycling (n=141,690) would be for the travellers who shift modes 1.15 additional deaths from air pollution, 0.17 additional deaths from road traffic fatality and 67.46 deaths avoided from physical activity resulting in a total of 66.12 deaths avoided. Fewer deaths would be avoided annually if half of the replaced trips were shifted to public transport (43.76 deaths). The annual health impact in the Barcelona City general population (n=1,630,494) of the 40% reduction in car trips would be 10.03 deaths avoided due to the reduction of 0.64% in exposure to PM2.5. The deaths (including travellers and general population) avoided in Barcelona City therefore would be 76.15 annually. Further health benefits would be obtained with a shift of 40% of the car trips from the Greater Barcelona Metropolitan which either start or end in Barcelona City to public transport (40.15 deaths avoided) or public transport and cycling (98.50 deaths avoided).The carbon dioxide reduction for shifting from car to other modes of transport (bike and public transport) in Barcelona metropolitan area was estimated to be 203,251t/CO₂ emissions per year. Interventions to reduce car use and increase cycling and the use of public transport in metropolitan areas, like Barcelona, can produce health benefits for travellers and for the general population of the city. Also these interventions help to reduce green house gas emissions. Copyright © 2012

  12. Mammography screening among Arab American women in metropolitan Detroit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Kendra; Fakhouri, Monty; Bartoces, Monina; Monsur, Joseph; Younis, Amani

    2008-12-01

    Mammography screening behavior has not been well studied among Middle Eastern immigrant women. We conducted a telephone survey of 365 Arab American women residing in metropolitan Detroit, home to one of the largest populations of Middle Eastern immigrants in the US, to determine prevalence of factors associated with mammography, and attitudes and beliefs regarding mammography screening. Of 365 participants, only five were born in the US. Mean age was 53.2 years (SD 10.8). Two hundred twelve (58.1%) reported having mammogram every 1-2 years; 70% ever had mammogram. Age 50-64 years, having health insurance, married status, being in the US over 10 years, and being Lebanese were associated with mammography every 1-2 years. After adjusting for demographic factors, perceived seriousness of disease, general health motivation, and having fewer barriers were associated with more frequent screening. Appropriate mammography screening is decreased in this group. Targeted outreach regarding screening is appropriate for this population; however, lack of insurance may prevent adequate follow-up.

  13. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-12-13

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

  14. 525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    technique of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test for long-run ..... Where; y is the actual income; λ is the adjustment factor and gy is output per ... income per capita if population growth leaves the ratio of workers to total ..... 0.00 and 0.01 probability values are not normally distributed around the.

  15. High-resolution 3D seismic reflection imaging across active faults and its impact on seismic hazard estimation in the Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Sato, Hiroshi; Abe, Susumu; Kawasaki, Shinji; Kato, Naoko

    2016-10-01

    We collected and interpreted high-resolution 3D seismic reflection data across a hypothesized fault scarp, along the largest active fault that could generate hazardous earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The processed and interpreted 3D seismic cube, linked with nearby borehole stratigraphy, suggests that a monocline that deforms lower Pleistocene units is unconformably overlain by middle Pleistocene conglomerates. Judging from structural patterns and vertical separation on the lower-middle Pleistocene units and the ground surface, the hypothesized scarp was interpreted as a terrace riser rather than as a manifestation of late Pleistocene structural growth resulting from repeated fault activity. Devastating earthquake scenarios had been predicted along the fault in question based on its proximity to the metropolitan area, however our new results lead to a significant decrease in estimated fault length and consequently in the estimated magnitude of future earthquakes associated with reactivation. This suggests a greatly reduced seismic hazard in the Tokyo metropolitan area from earthquakes generated by active intraplate crustal faults.

  16. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  17. The medicinal animal markets in the metropolitan region of Natal City, northeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Eduardo S; Torres, Denise F; Brooks, Sharon E; Alves, Rômulo R N

    2010-07-06

    This study investigates the trade of animals for medicinal purposes in Natal metropolitan area, northeastern Brazil, to document which animal species are used, how and for what purposes. This study also discusses the implications of the use of zootherapeutics for wildlife conservation. Based on interviews with merchants of medicinal animals in all open fairs of the metropolitan region of Natal City, we calculated the informant consensus factor (ICF) to determine the consensus over which species are effective for particular ailments, as well as the species relative importance to determine the extent of potential utilization of each species. We describe the therapeutic effects of 23 animal species used medicinally. The zootherapeutical products sold commercially are used to treat 34 health problems that were classified into 14 broad categories. We also highlight those species valued for their effectiveness against a range of ailments. The highest ICF value (1.0) was cited for diseases of the circulatory system, which include relief of symptoms such as stroke, hemorrhage, varicose veins and edema. Our study indicated that the local population holds a great deal of ethnomedical knowledge about their local animal resources, and highlights the need for clinical investigations of these traditional remedies to test the safety and efficacy. The animal species identified in this study not only hold high medicinal value for local populations, but could potentially be a source of healing compounds that could aid pharmaceutical research. While the impact of these practices on animal populations is unknown, the high extractive value of these animal populations and the associated medicinal traditional knowledge, needs to be considered in any conservation strategy aimed at the faunistic resources of this area. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  19. Influence of Cell-Cell Interactions on the Population Growth Rate in a Tumor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong

    2017-12-01

    The understanding of the macroscopic phenomenological models of the population growth at a microscopic level is important to predict the population behaviors emerged from the interactions between the individuals. In this work, we consider the influence of the population growth rate R on the cell-cell interaction in a tumor system and show that, in most cases especially small proliferative probabilities, the regulative role of the interaction will be strengthened with the decline of the intrinsic proliferative probabilities. For the high replication rates of an individual and the cooperative interactions, the proliferative probability almost has no effect. We compute the dependences of R on the interactions between the cells under the approximation of the nearest neighbor in the rim of an avascular tumor. Our results are helpful to qualitatively understand the influence of the interactions between the individuals on the growth rate in population systems. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11675008 and 21434001

  20. Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon Pagan, I. C.

    2007-12-01

    Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma

  1. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  2. Population studies of echinoderms and growth and mortality of sea cucumbers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebert, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Progress is reported on the following studies: methods of collecting sea cucumbers; determination of growth rates of plates of the calcareous ring; use of growth parameters and a length-frequency distribution to estimate mortality and population turnover; movement of materials through the atoll ecosystem; and autoradiographic studies on spines of sea urchins

  3. The food environment and adult obesity in US metropolitan areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michimi, Akihiko; Wimberly, Michael C

    2015-11-26

    This research examines the larger-scale associations between obesity and food environments in metropolitan areas in the United States (US). The US Census County Business Patterns dataset for 2011 was used to construct various indices of food environments for selected metropolitan areas. The numbers of employees engaged in supermarkets, convenience stores, full service restaurants, fast food restaurants, and snack/coffee shops were standardised using the location quotients, and factor analysis was used to produce two uncorrelated factors measuring food environments. Data on obesity were obtained from the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Individual level obesity measures were linked to the metropolitan area level food environment factors. Models were fitted using generalised estimating equations to control for metropolitan area level intra-correlation and individual level sociodemographic characteristics. It was found that adults residing in cities with a large share of supermarket and full-service restaurant workers were less likely to be obese, while adults residing in cities with a large share of convenience store and fast food restaurant workers were more likely to be obese. Supermarkets and full-service restaurant workers are concentrated in the Northeast and West of the US, where obesity prevalence is relatively lower, while convenience stores and fast-food restaurant workers are concentrated in the South and Midwest, where obesity prevalence is relatively higher. The food environment landscapes measured at the metropolitan area level explain the continental-scale patterns of obesity prevalence. The types of food that are readily available and widely served may translate into obesity disparities across metropolitan areas.

  4. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  5. A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

    2017-07-07

    We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Labor Force Activity of Women in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan America. Rural Development Research Report No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, David L.; O'Leary, Jeanne M.

    Between 1960 and 1970 economic opportunity and progress for women in American non-metropolitan areas was mixed. While women in metropolitan areas were more likely to be labor force members than were non-metropolitan women, the difference in metropolitan and non-metropolitan labor force participation rates narrowed during the period. For women…

  7. Appreciation of housing policies in the Metropolitan Area of Londrina-PR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Roberta Zanon

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the interpretation of partial search results on the "Right to Housing: applicability and effectiveness of legal instruments in the Metropolitan Area of Londrina-PR" since 2012 in the Universidade Estadual de Londrina. The context of social housing production in Londrina, from the years 1980 provides analysis allowance and reflection on the implementation of social housing policy in the city, especially in the 2000s programs, in particular with the implementation of the Residential Vista Bela by Minha Casa Minha Vida Program, one of the largest housing projects in Brazil, handed out the population in 2011 and 2012.

  8. Metropolitan vision making - using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neuvonen, A.; Ache, P.M.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: The need for new forward looking tools in urban planning is immense: The new functional relations and structures are stretching beyond our capacity to 'rationally' capture modern metropolitan spaces Neuman & Hull 2009). At the same time cities struggle to find tools to help manage a

  9. Exarh of the Bulgarian Church metropolitan Stephen and the Moscow Patriarchy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostriukov Andrei

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The article covers the last period of church-administrative activity of the Sofia’s metropolitan Stephаn (Shokov. The author describes the testimonies of contemporaries about the character and personal qualities of this ambiguous hierarch. In 1945–1948 metropolitan Stephan was the exarch of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church and participated in the Meeting of heads and representatives of Autocephalous Orthodox Churches in 1948. The author considers the circumstances of the dismissal of metropolitan Stephаn and his exile as especially important and interesting ones. The meeting of 1948 became the critical event in the exarch’s destiny. Being the supporter of ecumenism, metropolitan Stephen tried unsuccessfully to convince Patriarch Alexis of his rightness in order not to allow the condemnation of ecumenical contacts by the Moscow meeting. However Moscow looked on ecumenism differently in those days. In Moscow the Soviet management aspired to establishment of the centre of World Orthodoxy and tried to cite the Moscow Patriarchy against Constantinople that was under the influence of the USA and the Great Britain. As the Constantinople Patriarchy approved the ecumenical movement, the Moscow Patriarchy has been forced to take of an opposite position. Therefore, the participation of the Russian Church and Churches of the socialist countries in the ecumenical movement was impossible. Metropolitan Stephan, supporting the superiority of the Moscow Patriarchy in the World Orthodoxy, supported the active participation of all Local Churches in the ecumenical movement. The communistic management applied the maximum force to the exarch in order he has not made undesirable statements at the meeting. The fate of metropolitan Stephan has been decided after this meeting. In 1948 he was fired and exiled. The Moscow Patriarchy did not exclude the possibility of moving of metropolitan Stephаn to Russia and his location in any monastery. However metropolitan

  10. The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1992-02-01

    A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest

  11. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  12. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  13. Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by

  14. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  15. Household dust metal levels in The Sao Paulo metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scapin, Valdirene O.; Scapin, Marcos A.; Sato, Ivone M.

    2007-01-01

    A study about household dust is being conducted to determine the level of metal contamination in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA). The SPMA, with 18 million inhabitants, is one of the largest urban areas of the world, with serious environmental problems, due to the great amount of industries, heavy traffic and the disordered growth of population. The pollutants originate from a multiplicity of indoor and outdoor sources. Indoor sources are originated from residual (hair, skin scales), pets, human activities, construction materials, and furnishings as well as biological material (pollen, insect parts).and outdoor pollution, usually from the urban traffic. The pollutant mixture involved in numerous physical and chemical processes and changes its characteristics with time. Its composition and concentration depend on the strengths of indoor sources, the concentration of pollutants outside and the properties of ventilation and air-conditioning systems. It is well recognized that many metals have chronic effects on humans, in particular toddlers, who are at an higher risk compared to adults because they engage in greater hand to-mouth activity and their neurological systems are still developing. The household dust samples were collected from different localities, using vacuum cleaner, and sieved up to particle size -1 ; Mn, 119-369 μg g -1 ; Fe, 372-1464 μg g -1 ; Ni, 33-85 μg g -1 ; Cu, 42-303 μg g -1 ; Zn, 156-1369 μg g -1 and Pb, 26-160 μg g -1 . (author)

  16. Growth of the human lens in the Indian adult population: Preliminary observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashik Mohamed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: The eye lens grows throughout life by the addition of new cells inside the surrounding capsule. How this growth affects the properties of the lens is essential for understanding disorders such as cataract and presbyopia. Aims: To examine growth of the human lens in the Indian population and compare this with the growth in Western populations by measuring in vitro dimensions together with wet and dry weights. Settings and Design: The study was conducted at the research wing of a tertiary eye care center in South India and the study design was prospective. Materials and Methods: Lenses were removed from eye bank eyes and their dimensions measured with a digital caliper. They were then carefully blotted dry and weighed before being placed in 5% buffered formalin. After 1 week fixation, the lenses were dried at 80 °C until constant weight was achieved. The constant weight was noted as the dry weight of the lens. Statistical Analysis Used: Lens parameters were analyzed as a function of age using linear and logarithmic regression methods. Results: Data were obtained for 251 lenses, aged 16-93 years, within a median postmortem time of 22 h. Both wet and dry weights increased linearly at 1.24 and 0.44 mg/year, respectively, throughout adult life. The dimensions also increased continuously throughout this time. Conclusions: Over the age range examined, lens growth in the Indian population is very similar to that in Western populations.

  17. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  18. High resolution of anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of 12 heavy metals in the three biggest metropolitan areas, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, H.; Zhu, C.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric emissions of typical toxic heavy metals from anthropogenic sources have received worldwide concerns due to their adverse effects on human health and the ecosystem. An integrated inventory of anthropogenic emissions of twelve HMs (Hg, As, Se, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Sb, Mn, Co, Cu and Zn) in the three biggest metropolitan areas, including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, are developed for 1980-2012 by combining with detailed activity data and inter-annual dynamic emission factors which are determined by S-shaped curves on account of technology progress, economic development, and emission control. The results indicate total emissions of twelve HMs in the three metropolitan regions have increased from 5448.8 tons in 1980 to 19054.9 tons in 2012, with an annual average growth rate of about 4.0%. Due to significant difference in industrial structures and energy consumption compositions, remarkable distinctions can be observed with respect to source contributions of total HM emissions from above three metropolitan areas. Specifically, the ferrous metal smelting sector, coal combustion by industrial boilers and coal combustion by power plants are found to be the primary source of total HM emissions in the BTH region (about 34.2%), YRD region (about 28.2%) and PRD region (about 24.3%), respectively. Furthermore, we allocate the annual emissions of these heavy metals in 2012 at a high spatial resolution of 9 km × 9 km grid with ArcGIS methodology and surrogate indexes, such as regional population and gross domestic product (GDP). The peak of HM emissions are mainly distributed over the grid cells of Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, Handan and Baoding in the BTH region; Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo in the YRD region; Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan in the PYD region, respectively. Additionally, monthly emission profiles are established in order to further identify

  19. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  20. Lead exposure in the general population of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona. Blood levels and related factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sole, E. [Pediatrics Service, Hospital Universitari Arnau de Vilanova, Lleida (Spain); Ballabriga, A.; Dominguez, C. [Centre d`Investigacions en Bioquimica y Biologia Molecular, Vall d`Hebron Hospitals, School of Medicine, Pediatrics Department, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

    1998-12-11

    A cross-sectional was conducted on 254 individuals not occupationally exposed to lead to determine the degree of lead exposure in the general population of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona. Blood lead levels (BPb) were analysed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry and zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) by haemofluorimetry. Blood lead levels were analysed with respect to individuals` age, sex, area of residence, the season of the year the blood was drawn and ZPP. Mean blood lead in our series was 0.22{+-}0.011 {mu}mol/l (mean{+-}S.E.); no significant differences were found with respect to area of residence, sex or season. A linear relationship was observed between BPb and individuals` age (BPb=0.08+0.05xage; r=0.37). The prevalence of lead intoxication (BPb>0.48 {mu}mol/l) was 7.1%. No linear relationship was observed between BPb and ZPP. ZPP determination does not appear to be a good screening method for lead intoxication since it presents low specificity and sensitivity values with an area below the ROC curve similar to the null value line (area below the curve=0.5052, IC 95%=0.443-0.568). We conclude that lead exposure does not constitute a serious health problem in the area studied, since BPb levels found are far below the toxic limit and the prevalence of intoxication is similar to that reported in other studies conducted in other developed countries

  1. Studies of Health and Long-Term Care Expenditure Growth in Aging Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn recent decades, elderly populations in most developed countries have increased considerably, both in absolute and relative terms. This growth of the elderly share of the population is mainly attributable to two demographic transitions: the (simultaneous) increase in longevity and

  2. "Peer Review: Nonroad (NR) Updates to Population Growth, Compression Ignition (CI) Criteria, Toxic Emission Factors and Speciation Profiles"

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report focuses on the methodology for estimating growth in NR engine populations as used in the MOVES201X-NONROAD emission inventory model. MOVES NR growth rates start with base year engine populations and estimate growth in the populations of NR engines, while applying cons...

  3. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

    2015-01-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

  4. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth.

  5. 78 FR 53270 - Revision of Air Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-29

    ... Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District... to the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD or District) portion of the..., Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, Rule 214 (Federal New Source Review), Rule 203...

  6. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  7. Lead Emissions and Population Vulnerability in the Detroit (Michigan, USA) Metropolitan Area, 2006-2013: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, Heather; Grady, Sue C

    2017-11-23

    Objective : The purpose of this research is to geographically model airborne lead emission concentrations and total lead deposition in the Detroit Metropolitan Area (DMA) from 2006 to 2013. Further, this study characterizes the racial and socioeconomic composition of recipient neighborhoods and estimates the potential for IQ (Intelligence Quotient) loss of children residing there. Methods : Lead emissions were modeled from emitting facilities in the DMA using AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model). Multilevel modeling was used to estimate local racial residential segregation, controlling for poverty. Global Moran's I bivariate spatial autocorrelation statistics were used to assess modeled emissions with increasing segregation. Results : Lead emitting facilities were primarily located in, and moving to, highly black segregated neighborhoods regardless of poverty levels-a phenomenon known as environmental injustice. The findings from this research showed three years of elevated airborne emission concentrations in these neighborhoods to equate to a predicted 1.0 to 3.0 reduction in IQ points for children living there. Across the DMA there are many areas where annual lead deposition was substantially higher than recommended for aquatic (rivers, lakes, etc.) and terrestrial (forests, dunes, etc.) ecosystems. These lead levels result in decreased reproductive and growth rates in plants and animals, and neurological deficits in vertebrates. Conclusions : This lead-hazard and neighborhood context assessment will inform future childhood lead exposure studies and potential health consequences in the DMA.

  8. Comparisons of Growth and Survival Performance Among Selected Families and Wild Populations of Fenneropenaeus chinensis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Kun; Kong, Jie; Meng, Xianhong; Luan, Sheng; Cao, Baoxiang; Chen, Baolong

    2018-04-01

    In this study, families of selected population for growth (SP_BWT), selected population for white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) resistance (SP_RW), Bohai wild population (WP_BH) and Huanghai wild population (WP_HH) of F. chinensis were constructed through artificial insemination and with the standardized procedure of larvae rearing. Growth and survival performance were studied among four populations after a 70 days common test. The results showed that the maximum least square mean of body weight was 17.50 g in SP_BWT while the minimum was 13.03 g in WP_HH. Compared with WP_BH, body weight of SP_BWT increased by 23.41% ( P 0.05). Body weights of SP_BWT and SP_RW were significantly higher than that of WP_HH, which increased by 34.31% ( P populations was 0.19, 0.18, 0.17 and 0.16 g d-1, respectively. Coefficient of variation of body weight among four populations was high, which ranged from 32.67% to 35.25%. Such a range showed that there was the potentiality for further improvement in selected populations. Coefficient of variation of survival rate among four populations was low, varying between 3.20% and 5.90%. The difference of survival was highly significant ( P populations ( P growth performances were also observed among different families in each population. The body weight of 798F family was the highest. The absolute growth rate (AGR) was 0.25 g d-1, 150% higher than that of the lowest one, 0.1 g d-1 in 807F family. Survival rate of families among four populations was different. The highest was 94.74%, and the lowest was 71.88%.

  9. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  10. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  11. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  12. Air pollution holiday effect in metropolitan Kaohsiung

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, P.; Chen, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Different from Taipei, the metropolitan Kaohsiung which is a coastal and industrial city has the major pollution sources from stationary sources such as coal-fired power plants, petrochemical facilities and steel plants, rather than mobile sources. This study was an attempt to conduct a comprehensive and systematical examination of the holiday effect, defined as the difference in air pollutant concentrations between holiday and non-holiday periods, over the Kaohsiung metropolitan area. We documented evidence of a "holiday effect", where concentrations of NOx, CO, NMHC, SO2 and PM10 were significantly different between holidays and non-holidays, in the Kaohsiung metropolitan area from daily surface measurements of seven air quality monitoring stations of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration during the Chinese New Year (CNY) and non-Chinese New Year (NCNY) periods of 1994-2010. Concentrations of the five pollutants were lower in the CNY than in the NCNY period, however, that of O3 was higher in the CNY than in the NCNY period and had no holiday effect. The exclusion of the bad air quality day (PSI > 100) and the Lantern Festival Day showed no significant effects on the holiday effects of air pollutants. Ship transportation data of Kaohsiung Harbor Bureau showed a statistically significant difference in the CNY and NCNY period. This difference was consistent with those found in air pollutant concentrations of some industrial and general stations in coastal areas, implying the possible impact of traffic activity on the air quality of coastal areas. Holiday effects of air pollutants over the Taipei metropolitan area by Tan et al. (2009) are also compared.

  13. Printing activity of the Metropolitan Gavriil Banulescu Bodoni

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Fustei

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study is dedicated to the printing activity of the Metropolitan Gavriil Bănulescu-Bodoni’s activity. The religious and secular prints made from Chisinau’s Diocesan typography by Metropolitan Gavriil promote the idea of national unity of people from Moldavia, Wallachia and Transylvania. Due to the new documents from archives, more evidences and „more light” are being spread over the activity of famous hierarch, whose life is linked with the history of culture of three nations – Romanians, Ukrainians and Russians.

  14. Polycentric Structures in Latin American Metropolitan Areas : Identifying Employment Sub-centres

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernández-Maldonado, Ana María; Romein, Arie; Verkoren, Otto|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073181773; Parente Paula Pessoa, Renata

    2014-01-01

    Fernández-Maldonado A. M., Romein A., Verkoren O. and Parente Paula Pessoa R. Polycentric structures in Latin American metropolitan areas: identifying employment sub-centres, Regional Studies. The significant spatial transformations that have occurred within Latin American metropolitan areas since

  15. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  16. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2014-04-01

    Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms

  17. Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Meijdam, A.C.; Verbon, H.A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy.The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector.Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector and

  18. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  19. Population size structure indices and growth standards for Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, 1758 in Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedicillo G.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to provide reference data on the growth and population structure of brown trout Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, in Central Italy. Standards for growth (percentiles and a standard growth model were developed from the von Bertalanffy growth model by using length-at-age data obtained from 122 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. Length-frequency indices provide a numeric estimation for deviations of the population structure from a balanced population. We adapted the traditional North American Relative Stock Density (RSD and Proportional Stock Density (PSD indices to brown trout populations in Central Italy by means of two methods. In the first method, the benchmarks of length categories were established by using percentages applied to the largest individual in the dataset. In the second method, asymptotic length and size at maturity were used to define the length categories for index calculation. Both methods were tested on length-frequency data from 263 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. The results showed that the PSD calculated by the first method provided a better insight into the population structures of brown trout. These results provide tools that will help ichthyologists and fish managers to compare the growth and population structure of brown trout throughout Central Italy.

  20. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  1. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  2. Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2013-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

  3. SEROPREVALENCE OF NINE LEPTOSPIRA INTERROGANS SEROVARS IN WILD CARNIVORES, UNGULATES, AND PRIMATES FROM A ZOO POPULATION IN A METROPOLITAN REGION OF CHILE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Beas, Eduardo; Abalos, Pedro; Hidalgo-Hermoso, Ezequiel

    2015-12-01

    Serum samples from 130 individuals representing 42 species of carnivores, ungulates, and primates from a population of captive mammals in Metropolitan Region in Chile were tested for antibodies against nine serovars of Leptospira interrogans using the microscopic agglutination test. Ten percent of the animals were seropositive to one or more serovars. Seroprevalence was significantly higher in ungulates (20.4%) compared to carnivores (3.8%) and primates (3.4%). There were no significant differences in seroprevalence among sex and age ranges. The most frequent serovar detected was Autumnalis, present in 53.4% of antibody-positive animals. Most positive animals had titers of ≤1 : 200, except for a maned wolf ( Chrysocyon brachyurus ) with titers of 1 : 400 against serovar Hardjo. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first report of Leptospira exposure detected in native endangered pudu ( Pudu puda ) and the first confirmation of exposure to L. interrogans in captive wild mammals in Chile. Leptospirosis should be considered as a differential diagnosis in future disease presentation for hepatitis or abortions in captive mammals in Chile.

  4. [Effect of the population density on growth and regeneration in the snail Achatina fulica].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidel'nikov, A P; Stepanov, I I

    2000-01-01

    In the laboratory, the growth rate of the giant African snail Achatina fulica, as estimated by the weight and shell length was shown to decrease when the population density increased from 10 to 60 snails/m2 of the total terrarium area for five months. In the second experiment, when the population density increased from 48 to 193 snails/m2, the growth rate had already decreased by six weeks. In the groups with a high population density the feeding behavior was weakened, expressed by a greater amount of nonconsumed food, according to visual observations, than in the groups with lower population densities. At the population density of 10 to 60 snails/m2, the proliferative activity in the course of the optic tentacle regeneration, as expressed by the mitotic index, did not differ reliably within five months. In the second experiment, the mitotic indices at the population densities of 96 and 193 snails/m2 within 1.5 months exceeded that of 48 snails/m2. Recommendations are given concerning the population density from the viewpoint of commercial growth of the snails. It was proposed that, based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying the inhibition of feeding behavior in populations with extra high densities, one may develop a new approach to the production of chemical agents to control land snails as agricultural pests.

  5. 40 CFR 81.43 - Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.43 Section 81.43 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.43 Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Toledo Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Ohio-Michigan) consists of the territorial area...

  6. 40 CFR 81.31 - Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.31 Section 81.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.31 Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Providence Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Rhode Island-Massachusetts) consists of the...

  7. 40 CFR 81.78 - Metropolitan Portland Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.78 Section 81.78 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.78 Metropolitan Portland Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Portland Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Maine) consists of the territorial area...

  8. 40 CFR 81.16 - Metropolitan Denver Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.16 Section 81.16 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.16 Metropolitan Denver Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Denver Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Colorado) consists of the territorial area...

  9. 40 CFR 81.29 - Metropolitan Indianapolis Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Air Quality Control Region. 81.29 Section 81.29 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... Designation of Air Quality Control Regions § 81.29 Metropolitan Indianapolis Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Indianapolis Intrastate Air Quality Control Region consists of the territorial...

  10. 40 CFR 81.101 - Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.101 Section 81.101 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.101 Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Dubuque Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Iowa-Wisconsin) consists of the...

  11. 40 CFR 81.44 - Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.44 Section 81.44 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.44 Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Memphis Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Arkansas-Mississippi-Tennessee) consists of the...

  12. 40 CFR 81.19 - Metropolitan Boston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.19 Section 81.19 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.19 Metropolitan Boston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Boston Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Massachusetts) consists of the territorial area...

  13. 40 CFR 81.28 - Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.28 Section 81.28 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.28 Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Maryland) consists of the territorial area...

  14. 40 CFR 81.89 - Metropolitan Cheyenne Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.89 Section 81.89 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.89 Metropolitan Cheyenne Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Cheyenne Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Wyoming) consists of the territorial area...

  15. 40 CFR 81.87 - Metropolitan Boise Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.87 Section 81.87 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.87 Metropolitan Boise Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Boise Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Idaho) consists of the territorial area encompassed...

  16. 40 CFR 81.75 - Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.75 Section 81.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.75 Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Charlotte Interstate Air Quality Control Region (North Carolina-South Carolina) has been revised...

  17. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  18. Mobile source CO2 mitigation through smart growth development and vehicle fleet hybridization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Mednick, Adam C; Holloway, Tracey; Spak, Scott N

    2009-03-15

    This paper presents the results of a study on the effectiveness of smart growth development patterns and vehicle fleet hybridization in reducing mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) across 11 major metropolitan regions of the Midwestern U.S. over a 50-year period. Through the integration of a vehicle travel activity modeling framework developed by researchers atthe Oak Ridge National Laboratory with small area population projections, we model mobile source emissions of CO2 associated with alternative land development and technology change scenarios between 2000 and 2050. Our findings suggest that under an aggressive smart growth scenario, growth in emissions expected to occur under a business as usual scenario is reduced by 34%, while the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicles throughout the light vehicle fleet is found to offset the expected growth in emissions by 97%. Our results further suggest that high levels of urban densification could achieve reductions in 2050 CO2 emissions equivalent to those attainable through the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicle technologies.

  19. Social security reform and population ageing in a two-sector growth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groezen, Bas van; Meijdam, L.; Verbon, H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the e¤ects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy. The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector. Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector

  20. Designing Freshwater Resilience for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    There are few places in the world where the water management challenges associated with global urbanization are as fully visible as in the Greater Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). MCMA has a population of 22 million of which only 82% have daily water provision and this figure is projected by local agencies to decrease drastically in the next decade due to population growth, infrastructure degradation and climate change. The city is served by a massive water delivery system, consisting of complex network of infrastructure in the surrounding basins that provides about 40% of the supply for MCMA and is characterized by increasing land use change and competition for water. The remaining 60% of MCMA's water is sourced internally from already depleted groundwater resources whose exploitation also results in significant subsidence throughout the city, further damaging already degraded infrastructure. Consequently, there is interest and need for investments that improve the performance of the freshwater delivery system, including local resources and connected basins, in the face of change and shocks that can be only partially anticipated. The quest for such resilience is a common theme in urban infrastructure design yet practical approaches for achieving it remain nascent. In this study, we use MCMA and the Cutzamala Water supply system to demonstrate a quantitative framework to evaluate investment strategies which seek resilience for the water supply system of MCMA. Multiobjective optimization and decisions under deep uncertainty approaches are used to evaluate the best performing investment portfolios across different resilience performance metrics which encompass social equity, environmental and economic objectives. This analysis shows dynamic system responses that result from different investment portfolios, elucidating difficult planning and management decisions around tradeoffs between allocations as well as performance metrics (e.g short period of total failure

  1. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

  2. Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

    2018-05-01

    Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and

  3. Water management for a megacity: Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tortajada, Cecilia; Castelán, Enrique

    2003-03-01

    The paper presents an overview of the present situation of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The analysis indicates an urgent need to radically improve the current water supply and wastewater management practices, to become sustainable. The MCMA is one of the most rapidly growing urban centers of the world, with a population of about 21 million people, a very high rate of immigration and numerous illegal settlements. In order to meet the increasing water demand, successive governments have focused almost exclusively on supply management and engineering solutions, which have resulted in investments of hundreds of millions of USD and the construction of major infrastructure projects for interbasin water transfer. Environmental, economic and social policies associated with water management are mostly inadequate and insufficient, which is resulting in increasing deterioration in the environment, health and socioeconomic conditions of a population living in one of the largest urban agglomerations of the world. Surprisingly, however, no long-term strategies on demand-management, reuse, conservation, and improved water-management practices have been developed so far.

  4. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  5. 40 CFR 81.45 - Metropolitan Atlanta Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.45 Section 81.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.45 Metropolitan Atlanta Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Atlanta Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Georgia) has been revised to consist of the...

  6. 40 CFR 81.20 - Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.20 Section 81.20 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.20 Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana) is revised to consist of...

  7. 40 CFR 81.34 - Metropolitan Dayton Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.34 Section 81.34 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.34 Metropolitan Dayton Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Dayton Intrastate Air Quality Control Region consists of the territorial area encompassed by the...

  8. 40 CFR 81.41 - Metropolitan Birmingham Intrastate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.41 Section 81.41 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.41 Metropolitan Birmingham Intrastate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Birmingham Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (Alabama) has been revised to consist of the...

  9. 40 CFR 81.14 - Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Quality Control Region. 81.14 Section 81.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Air Quality Control Regions § 81.14 Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region. The Metropolitan Chicago Interstate Air Quality Control Region (Illinois-Indiana) is revised to consist of the...

  10. The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Stephen D.

    1983-01-01

    The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

  11. Quantifying the Driving Forces of Informal Urbanization in the Western Part of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taher Osman

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the driving forces (DFs of informal urbanization (IU in the greater Cairo metropolitan region (GCMR using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. The IU patterns in the GCMR have been extremely influenced by seven DFs: geographical characteristics, availability of life facilities, economic incentives, land demand and supply, population increase, administrative function, and development plans. This research found that these forces vary significantly in how they influence urban growth in the three study sectors, namely, the middle, north, and south areas in the western part of the GCMR. The forces with the highest influence were economic incentives in the middle sector, population increase in the north sector, and the administrative function in the south sector. Due to the lower availability of buildable land in the middle sector, the land demand and supply force had a lesser influence in this sector compared to in the north and south sectors. The development plans force had medium influence in all sectors. The geographical characteristics force had little influence in both the middle and the north sectors, but higher influence than economic incentives, availability of life facilities, and development plans in the south sector. Because of the spatial variances in life facilities organizations in the GCMR, the life facilities availability force had little effect on IU in the south sector.

  12. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  13. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  14. The mortality profile of black Seventh-Day Adventists residing in metropolitan Atlanta: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, F G; Blumenthal, D S; Dickson-Smith, J; Peay, R P

    1990-08-01

    Mortality information was gathered for 110 Black Seventh-day Adventist members of seven churches in Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia during the period 1980-87. Seventy-seven percent of the deaths were due to cardiovascular diseases; 8 percent due to cancer, the second leading cause of death. The cancer rate is extremely low in comparison to the proportion of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases. Subsequent research on this population will take into consideration lifestyle factors which could contribute to this finding.

  15. Needs Assessment of the Healthcare Sector in the Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Area. Research Report. Business Needs Assessment Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northern Virginia Community Coll., Annandale. Office of Institutional Research.

    According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the growing population of elderly citizens will result in an increased demand for healthcare services that will rise for a full 50 years. This study assesses the need for healthcare sector workers in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. Information on the skills, education, and experience that…

  16. Population growth rate and genetic variability of small and large populations of Red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) following multigenerational exposure to copper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskowski, Ryszard; Radwan, Jacek; Kuduk, Katarzyna; Mendrok, Magdalena; Kramarz, Paulina

    2015-07-01

    We reared large (1000 individuals) and small (20 individuals) populations of Tribolium castaneum on diet contaminated with copper in order to determine if the size of a population affects its ability to adapt to adverse environmental conditions. After 10 generations, we used microsatellite markers to estimate and subsequently compare the genetic variability of the copper-treated populations with that of the control populations, which were reared on uncontaminated medium. Additionally, we conducted a full cross-factorial experiment which evaluated the effects of 10 generations of "pre-exposure" to copper on a population's fitness in control and copper-contaminated environments. In order to distinguish results potentially arising from genetic adaptation from those due to non-genetic effects associated to parental exposure to copper, we subjected also F11 generation, originating from parents not exposed to copper, to the same cross-factorial experiment. The effects of long-term exposure to copper depended on population size: the growth rates of small populations that were pre-exposed to copper were inhibited compared to those of small populations reared in uncontaminated environments. Large Cu-exposed populations had a higher growth rate in the F10 generation compared to the control groups, while the growth rate of the F11 generation was unaffected by copper exposure history. The only factor that had a significant effect on genetic variability was population size, but this was to be expected given the large difference in the number of individuals between large and small populations. Neither copper contamination nor its interaction with population size affected the number of microsatellite alleles retained in the F10 generation.

  17. A study of risk in the metropolitan area of Guadalajara through dense GPS geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquez-Azua, B.; Saldana-Hernandez, F.; Medina de La Pena, H.

    2007-05-01

    Geodesic measurements from the Global Positioning System (GPS) are used extensively for basic earth science research into natural hazards and seismic risk. In the private sector, GPS technology is additionally used for cadastral and photogrammetric mapping surveys, definition of political-administrative limits, space analysis with thematic cartography, GIS, and land-use planning, with a wide variety of applied social, economic, and political purposes, including conservation of the environment. The city of Guadalajara and its surrounding urban area has expanded greatly in the last three decades as a result of industrial, commercial and housing activity that have substantially changed in their urban morphology. This period of unprecedented growth has occurred primarily in an unplanned and sometimes disarticulated and unbalanced manner, incongruous with the development of the most important city in western Mexico. The Department of Geography of the University of Guadalajara and the Institute of Territorial Information of the State of Jalisco (IITJ) have initiated a study of 89 geodetic sites that are located in the metropolitan zone of Guadalajara to assist in future planning and regulation of urban development, including urban and rural cadastral surveys and the establishment of diverse public services. Our work includes careful examination and evaluation of the quality and distribution of these geodetic sites with regard to anticipated growth of the metropolitan municipalities, and the vulnerability of urban zones to ground subsidence or landslides. Guadalajara is also located in a seismic zone, making precise continuous GPS measurements useful for identifying rates of strain accumulation and aseismic strain events that cannot be measured by seismographs.

  18. Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

    2018-04-01

    A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Improving Public Health and Environment through Plastic Waste Management in Mumbai Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay RODE

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Mumbai Metropolitan Region is growing in terms of population, industry, educational and commercial units. The daily requirements of commodities and services by all units have increased fast. Plastic is used extensively for packing, protection and service of various commodities. The use of plastic is much higher by industry and households in region. In Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation, the density of population is higher. The concentration of small and large industries is more. Therefore the plastic use is much higher for different purposes. It leads to more waste of plastic. In Ulhasnagar Municipal Corporation, the population and industrial units are less. Therefore plastic waste is less generated. Theaters are generating less plastic waste in metropolitan region. The Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC and municipal corporations in Thane district will continuously generate more plastic waste in future. The Tobit regression model shows that plastic waste is positively co-related and statistically significant with pollution and industry in region. Therefore the comprehensive policies are required to reduce plastic waste. This is because plastic waste is affecting on the health of human being. It also affects negatively on soil, air and water. The entire food supply chain gets affected due to plastic waste. The water logging is common due to plastic waste in region. It chock ups the drainage system and it becomes the ground for mosquitoes. It further leads to dengue, malaria and other diseases in region. Municipal corporations must collect plastic in separate bins and process it. The plastic and e-waste can be utilized for road construction in region. All the policies will certainly help to reduce the plastic waste and maintain the clean environment in region.

  20. Detecting crop population growth using chlorophyll fluorescence imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Heng; Qian, Xiangjie; Zhang, Lan; Xu, Sailong; Li, Haifeng; Xia, Xiaojian; Dai, Liankui; Xu, Liang; Yu, Jingquan; Liu, Xu

    2017-12-10

    For both field and greenhouse crops, it is challenging to evaluate their growth information on a large area over a long time. In this work, we developed a chlorophyll fluorescence imaging-based system for crop population growth information detection. Modular design was used to make the system provide high-intensity uniform illumination. This system can perform modulated chlorophyll fluorescence induction kinetics measurement and chlorophyll fluorescence parameter imaging over a large area of up to 45  cm×34  cm. The system can provide different lighting intensity by modulating the duty cycle of its control signal. Results of continuous monitoring of cucumbers in nitrogen deficiency show the system can reduce the judge error of crop physiological status and improve monitoring efficiency. Meanwhile, the system is promising in high throughput application scenarios.

  1. Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

  2. Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults. The dile...

  3. The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

  4. Growth and physiological responses to varied environments among populations of Pinus ponderosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianwei Zhang; Bert M. Cregg

    2005-01-01

    We investigated population responses in physiology, morphology, and growth of mature Pinus ponderosa trees to an environmental gradient across Nebraska, USA. Ten populations from western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming were grown in three 26-year-old provenance tests from the warmest and wettest site in the east (Plattsmouth) to the intermediate site in...

  5. Implications of urban structure on carbon consumption in metropolitan areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinonen, Jukka; Junnila, Seppo

    2011-01-01

    Urban structure influences directly or indirectly the majority of all green house gas (GHG) emissions in cities. The prevailing belief is that dense metropolitan areas produce less carbon emissions on a per capita basis than less dense surrounding rural areas. Consequently, density targets have a major role in low-carbon urban developments. However, based on the results of this study, the connection seems unclear or even nonexistent when comprehensive evaluation is made. In this letter, we propose a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) method for calculating the consumption-based carbon footprints in metropolitan areas, i.e. carbon consumption, with the emphasis on urban structures. The method is input-output-based hybrid LCA, which operates with the existing data from the region. The study is conducted by performing an analysis of the carbon consumption in two metropolitan areas in Finland, including 11 cities. Both areas consist of a dense city core and a less dense surrounding suburban area. The paper will illustrate that the influence of urban density on carbon emissions is insignificant in the selected metropolitan areas. In addition, the utilized consumption-based method links the climate effects of city-level development to the global production of emissions.

  6. Manifestation of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP Model on Fire Potential Zonation Mapping in Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin Kumar Chhetri

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Even though fewer people die as a result of fire than other natural disasters, such as earthquake, flood, landslide, etc., the average loss of property due to fire is high. Kathmandu Metropolitan City is becoming more vulnerable to fire due to haphazard urbanization and increase in population. To control problems due to fire, systematic studies are necessary, including fire potential mapping and risk assessment. This study applies an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method in Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Nepal for generation of fire potential zonation map. The fire potential zonation map is prepared on the basis of available data of land use, fuel stations, and population density. This map shows that 58.04% of the study area falls under low fire potential zone, 32.92% falls under moderate fire potential zone and 9.04% falls under high fire potential zone. The map is also validated through major past fire incidents. The results show that the predicted fire potential zones are found to be in good agreement with past fire incidents, and, hence, the map can be used for future land-use planning.

  7. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  8. Urban mobility, socioeconomic and urban transport variables in metropolitan areas in three continents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carvalho da Costa, F.B. de; Nassi, C.D.

    2016-07-01

    Transportation is the soul of urban cities. Find sustainable ways to keep people moving in our cities is more important than ever. Historically, cities have developed in different ways. Each has its own personality and complexity. But in all cases, transport and mobility have played a key role in city life. Due to the relevance of mobility this article tries to establish the relationship between some variables. The method was developed by collecting, analyzing and comparing data on metropolitan regions in North America, South America, Europe and Oceania through a mathematical model. From each selected location the following data were gathered: population, area (km²), demographic density (inhab/km²), socio-economic aspects (annual GDP per capita), transport system (subway extension), number of trips per person per day and modal split (% non-motorized, % public transport and % private transport). In this study we analyze some variables that influence the number of trips per person per day. Understanding the associations between all the variables that influence the number of trips per person per day contributes the planners to determine whether changes are needed to improve in the transport system in the metropolitan region. (Author)

  9. Place matters: variation in the black/white very preterm birth rate across U.S. metropolitan areas, 2002-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Michael R; Hogue, Carol R

    2008-01-01

    We reported on the distribution of very preterm (VPT) birth rates by race across metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Rates of singleton VPT birth for non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic women were calculated with National Center for Health Statistics 2002-2004 natality files for infants in 168 MSAs. Subanalysis included stratification by parity, age, smoking, maternal education, metropolitan size, region, proportion of MSA that was black, proportion of black population living below the poverty line, and indices of residential segregation. The mean metropolitan-level VPT birth rate was 12.3, 34.8, and 15.7 per 1,000 live births for white, black, and Hispanic women, respectively. There was virtually no overlap in the white and black distributions. The variation in mean risk across cities was three times greater for black women compared with white women. The threefold disparity in mean rate, and two- to threefold increased variation as indicated by standard deviation, was maintained in all subanalyses. Compared with white women, black women have three times the mean VPT birth risk, as well as three times the variance in city-level rates. The racial disparity in VPT birth rates was composed of characteristics that were constant across MSAs, as well as factors that varied by MSA. The increased sensitivity to place for black women was unexplained by measured maternal and metropolitan factors. Understanding determinants of differences in both the mean risk and the variation of risk among black and white women may contribute to reducing the disparity in risk between races.

  10. Differences in Townsend's chipmunk populations between second- and old-growth forests in western Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.K. Rosenberg; R.G. Anthony

    1993-01-01

    Because Townsend's chipmunks (Tomias townsendii) may be important in maintaining natural ecosystem processes in forests in the central Oregon Cascade Range, we compared their population characteristics in young second-growth and old-growth forests. We live-trapped Townsend's chipmunks in 5 young (30-60 yr old) second-growth and 5 old-...

  11. The Impact of Urbanization to Forest Degradation in Metropolitan Semarang: A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sejati, A. W.; Buchori, I.; Rudiarto, I.

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to examine the relationship of urbanization and the consequences of environmental impacts, especially the availability of forests. The analysis used remote sensing data ie Landsat 7 ETM (1990), Landsat 7 ETM (2000), and Landsat 8 OLI (2015). Analysis of forest availability used green vegetation cover parameters with NDVI techniques, while urbanization was measured by looking at the built-up area growth with NDBI techniques. The detection result in 1990 area of urban area was 74.85 km2, in 2000 was 130.83 km2, and in 2015 was 292.74 km2. Given the overall size of the metropolitan area of Semarang (932.14 km2), the proportion of the built up area in 2015 was 31% with an average of 6% per year change in 1990-2000 and 8.2% per year in 2000-2015. Urbanization in this region is characterized by forest conversion into residential and industrial buildings. With increasing area and built-up density, NDBI is found to be proportionately increasing, while NDVI decrease is significant. The results show that NDBI-NDVI correlation is negative (-0.99). It is very important for policy makers to formulate land use control policies in Metropolitan Semarang particularly in responding to the issue of forest conversion.

  12. Towards a Metropolitan Fundamental Diagram Using Travel Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Using travel diary data from 2000–2001 and 2010–2012 this research examines fundamental traffic relationships at the metropolitan level. The results of this paper can help to explain the causes of some traffic phenomena. Network average speed by time of day can be explained by trip length and cumulative number of vehicles on the road. A clockwise hysteresis loop is found in the Metropolitan Fundamental Diagram in the morning period and a reverse process happens in the afternoon. PMID:26866913

  13. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  14. Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population, both averaged

  15. Overweight according to geographical origin and time spent in France: a cross sectional study in the Paris metropolitan area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin-Fernandez Judith

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background For the first time in France in a population-based survey, this study sought to investigate the potential impact of migration origin and the proportion of lifetime spent in mainland France on body mass index (BMI and overweight in adults living in the Paris metropolitan area. Methods A representative, population-based, random sample of the adult, French speaking population of the Paris metropolitan area was interviewed in 2005. Self-reported BMI (BMI = weight/height2 and overweight (BMI ≥ 25 were our 2 outcomes of interest. Two variables were constructed to estimate individuals’ migration origin: parental nationality and the proportion of lifetime spent in mainland France, as declared by the participants. We performed multilevel regression models among different gender and age groups, adjusted for demographics and socioeconomic status. Results In women, a parental origin in the Middle East or North Africa (MENA was associated with a higher risk of being overweight (especially before the age of 55 and a higher BMI (between 35 and 54 years of age, and so were women of Sub-Sahara African parental origin in the middle age category. Only in the youngest men ( Conclusions Our results plea for potential cultural determinants of overweight in the migrant and migrants-born populations in the French context of the capital region. Taking into account the people’ family and personal migration histories may be an important issue in public health research and policies on overweight and obesity prevention.

  16. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  17. Monitoring urban expansion and land use/land cover changes of Shanghai metropolitan area during the transitional economy (1979-2009) in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jie; Yin, Zhane; Zhong, Haidong; Xu, Shiyuan; Hu, Xiaomeng; Wang, Jun; Wu, Jianping

    2011-06-01

    This study explored the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use/cover changes and urban expansion in Shanghai metropolitan area, China, during the transitional economy period (1979-2009) using multi-temporal satellite images and geographic information systems (GIS). A maximum likelihood supervised classification algorithm was employed to extract information from four landsat images, with the post-classification change detection technique and GIS-based spatial analysis methods used to detect land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes. The overall Kappa indices of land use/cover change maps ranged from 0.79 to 0.89. Results indicated that urbanization has accelerated at an unprecedented scale and rate during the study period, leading to a considerable reduction in the area of farmland and green land. Findings further revealed that water bodies and bare land increased, obviously due to large-scale coastal development after 2000. The direction of urban expansion was along a north-south axis from 1979 to 2000, but after 2000 this growth changed to spread from both the existing urban area and along transport routes in all directions. Urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes in Shanghai have largely been driven by policy reform, population growth, and economic development. Rapid urban expansion through clearing of vegetation has led to a wide range of eco-environmental degradation.

  18. Metropolitan Quantum Key Distribution with Silicon Photonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunandar, Darius; Lentine, Anthony; Lee, Catherine; Cai, Hong; Long, Christopher M.; Boynton, Nicholas; Martinez, Nicholas; DeRose, Christopher; Chen, Changchen; Grein, Matthew; Trotter, Douglas; Starbuck, Andrew; Pomerene, Andrew; Hamilton, Scott; Wong, Franco N. C.; Camacho, Ryan; Davids, Paul; Urayama, Junji; Englund, Dirk

    2018-04-01

    Photonic integrated circuits provide a compact and stable platform for quantum photonics. Here we demonstrate a silicon photonics quantum key distribution (QKD) encoder in the first high-speed polarization-based QKD field tests. The systems reach composable secret key rates of 1.039 Mbps in a local test (on a 103.6-m fiber with a total emulated loss of 9.2 dB) and 157 kbps in an intercity metropolitan test (on a 43-km fiber with 16.4 dB loss). Our results represent the highest secret key generation rate for polarization-based QKD experiments at a standard telecom wavelength and demonstrate photonic integrated circuits as a promising, scalable resource for future formation of metropolitan quantum-secure communications networks.

  19. The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mainstream view from these debates and discussions is that rapid population growth in Africa has put pressure on the environment, leading to environmental degradation which translates into shortfall in food production and atrophied development. This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological ...

  20. Metropolitan siting: a historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunch, D.F.

    1978-09-01

    The paper discusses the development and implementation of the Reactor Site Criteria and particularly the evolving posture of the agency on the subject of metropolitan siting. The review actions on nine sites are described to illustrate the various issues and positions and to clarify at least some of the bases for current practices of the NRC staff

  1. Non-metropolitan residential gated developments in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Spocter, M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available -metropolitan locale and the topic is also unexplored in the South African context. This research attempts to address this research gap by investigating the locations of gated developments in non-metropolitan towns of varying sizes in the Western Cape...

  2. Political apathy amongst students: A case study of Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntsikelelo B. Breakfast

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The primary motivation for this research, in which a qualitative method was employed, was to examine political apathy amongst students at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University. The secondary motivation was to question whether youth political apathy threatens the consolidation of democracy. The researchers arranged four focus groups at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University. A purposive sampling technique was utilised. All 50 participants in the study were Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University undergraduate and postgraduate black students, with ages ranging from 21 to 35 years. The researchers encouraged participants to have maximum participation in the focus group deliberations. The researchers also made use of elite interviews in the study. The findings of this study suggest that political apathy does exist amongst students at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University. Most of the participants in the focus groups indicated that young people in post-apartheid South Africa have no interest in politics.

  3. Project Mahathir: ‘Extraordinary’ Population Growth in Sabah

    OpenAIRE

    Frank, Sina

    2006-01-01

    The Malaysian state of Sabah faced an “extraordinary” population growth during the last decades. Illegal immigrants are said to have been issued Malaysian Identity Cards based on false statutory declarations. The so-called “Project Mahathir” changed Sabah’s ethnic make-up as well as the participation in elections. Politicians are said to have made use of “Phantom voters” in order to decide Sabah elections. Finally, with the help of a petition Sabah-based NGO’s demand an investi...

  4. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Vincenzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth and L∞ (asymptotic size. Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  5. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  6. Performance of FHWA model for predicting traffic noise: a case study of metropolitan city, Lucknow (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Srivastava

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial and transport activities are the two major sources of noise pollution in any metropolitan city. Lucknow city, the capital of the largest populated state Uttar Pradesh in India has an area of 310 sq. km and is rapidly growing as a commercial, industrial and trading centre of northern India. The population of Lucknow city as per census 2001 is 22.45 Lacs. It is expected that by the year 2021 it will make 45 Lacs. The total vehicle population in Lucknow city on 31 March 2008, was nearly 1 million with almost 80% two wheelers, 12% cars, 1.36% three wheelers, 0.45% buses etc. A study was carried out to assess the existing status of noise levels and its impacts on the environment with a possibility of further expansion of the city. Ambient noise levels were measured at different locations selected on the basis of land use such as silence, heavy traffic and residential and commercial zones. It was found that noise levels at all selected locations were much higher (75–90 dB than the prescribed limits. The observed traffic volume and data on road geometry were used to predict noise levels using Federal Highway Administration Agency (FHWA model and the calculated noise levels were compared with the observed levels for checking the suitability of this model for predicting the future levels. It was established that the results obtained by FHWA model were very close to the observed noise levels and that the model was suitable to be used for other similar metropolitan cities in India.

  7. Optimal fetal growth for the Caucasian singleton and assessment of appropriateness of fetal growth: an analysis of a total population perinatal database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence David M

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The appropriateness of an individual's intra uterine growth is now considered an important determinant of both short and long term outcomes, yet currently used measures have several shortcomings. This study demonstrates a method of assessing appropriateness of intrauterine growth based on the estimation of each individual's optimal newborn dimensions from routinely available perinatal data. Appropriateness of growth can then be inferred from the ratio of the value of the observed dimension to that of the optimal dimension. Methods Fractional polynomial regression models including terms for non-pathological determinants of fetal size (gestational duration, fetal gender and maternal height, age and parity were used to predict birth weight, birth length and head circumference from a population without any major risk factors for sub-optimal intra-uterine growth. This population was selected from a total population of all singleton, Caucasian births in Western Australia 1998–2002. Births were excluded if the pregnancy was exposed to factors known to influence fetal growth pathologically. The values predicted by these models were treated as the optimal values, given infant gender, gestational age, maternal height, parity, and age. Results The selected sample (N = 62,746 comprised 60.5% of the total Caucasian singleton birth cohort. Equations are presented that predict optimal birth weight, birth length and head circumference given gestational duration, fetal gender, maternal height, age and parity. The best fitting models explained 40.5% of variance for birth weight, 32.2% for birth length, and 25.2% for head circumference at birth. Conclusion Proportion of optimal birth weight (length or head circumference provides a method of assessing appropriateness of intrauterine growth that is less dependent on the health of the reference population or the quality of their morphometric data than is percentile position on a birth weight

  8. An Assessment of Factors Affecting Population Growth of the Mountain Plover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J. Dinsmore

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Effective conservation measures should target the most sensitive life history attributes of a species, assuming they are responsive to potential management actions. The Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus is a species of conservation concern with a patchy breeding distribution in western North America. Plovers prefer areas with short vegetation, bare ground, and disturbance for nesting. Current management tools, including grazing and burning, have been used to attract plovers and enhance nesting success. We used a stage-specific matrix model to study the influence of vital rates, e.g., juvenile and adult annual survival, on population growth rate in the Mountain Plover at two breeding sites in Colorado, South Park and Eastern Colorado, and one breeding site in Montana, USA. Our analysis was motivated by a need to 1 better understand the relationship between demographic rates and population growth rate, 2 assess current management tools for the plover by exploring their effect on population growth rate, and 3 identify areas of the plover's population biology where additional demographic work is needed. Stochastic population growth rate was most influenced by adult survival, especially in Montana and South Park, Colorado (elasticities > 0.60, and was least influenced by first-year reproduction (all elasticities < 0.20. The modeled relationships between lambda and each demographic rate were generally weak (r2 < 0.30 with the exception of number of eggs hatched per nest in Eastern Colorado (r2 = 0.63, chick survival in South Park (r2 = 0.40 and Montana (r2 = 0.38, and adult survival in Montana (r2 = 0.36. We examined the predicted increase in lambda that would result from increasing each demographic rate from its mean to the maximum value observed in our simulations. Chick and adult survival showed the greatest increase in lambda while eggs hatched per nest produced the smallest increase. Our results suggest that future conservation efforts should

  9. The metropolitan VoD system based on ethernet/SCM PON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Wei; Yang, Hongliang; Feng, Dejun; Liu, Yang; Sun, Jande

    2008-11-01

    VoD is a very attractive service which used for entertainment, education and other purposes. In this paper, we present an evolution method that integrates the EPON and SCM-PON by WDM technology to provide high dedicated bandwidth for the metropolitan VoD services. Using DVB, IPTV protocol, unicasting and broadcasting method to maximize the system throughput and by numerical analysis, the hybrid PON system can implement the metropolitan VoD services.

  10. Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the São Paulo metropolitan area

    OpenAIRE

    de Carvalho, Wladithe Organ; Galvao Cesar, Chester Luiz; Carandina, Luana [UNESP; de Azevedo Barros, Marilisa Berti; Goi Porto Alves, Maria Cecilia; Goldbaum, Moises

    2008-01-01

    Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the São Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes.Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in ...

  11. Polycentric Metropolitan Form: Application of a ‘Northern’ Concept in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie Romein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid 20th century, large urban areas in advanced economies have experienced a fundamental transformation from relatively compact monocentric cities towards more extended polycentric metropolitan areas. By now, it is being commented repeatedly, but not investigated systematically that the concept of polycentricity is also adequate to characterise recent metropolitan dynamics in Latin-America.This paper aims to present a few key-issues for a future research agenda into polycentricity in Latin-American metropolitan areas. These elements are identified from a review of existing literature. Since no clear-cut definition and operationalisation of polycentricity exist yet, we distinguish some key-elements of this phenomenon in North America as a frame of reference for this review. It reveals that ‘polycentricity U.S. style’ is at best dawning in Latin-America. In order to achieve a more appropriate picture of polycentricity of Latin American metropolitan areas, our ideas for a research agenda take into account these areas typical economic, social and spatial conditions.

  12. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  13. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shyu, E.; Caswell, H.

    2014-01-01

    Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way

  14. Effect of Cadmium on the population growth of the marine diatom Chaetoceros gracilis Schutt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovana Vera

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton constitutes the base of the trophic webs in the marine environment, so it is important to know the possible effects of pollutants on the algal populations. In the present paper the effect of cadmium on the population growth of the diatom Chaetoceros gracilis was assessed. The microalgae were cultured in the a modified “f/2” Guillard medium, and were exposed to different concentrations of cadmium between 50 and 100000 µg.–1, which produced an inhibitory effect from 20% to 99% on the population growth of Chaetoceros gracilis. Based on the dose (cadmium-response (inhibition relationship, a mean effective concentration (EC50% equal to 591 µg.L–1 of cadmium was obtained.

  15. Metropolitan Quantum Key Distribution with Silicon Photonics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darius Bunandar

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Photonic integrated circuits provide a compact and stable platform for quantum photonics. Here we demonstrate a silicon photonics quantum key distribution (QKD encoder in the first high-speed polarization-based QKD field tests. The systems reach composable secret key rates of 1.039 Mbps in a local test (on a 103.6-m fiber with a total emulated loss of 9.2 dB and 157 kbps in an intercity metropolitan test (on a 43-km fiber with 16.4 dB loss. Our results represent the highest secret key generation rate for polarization-based QKD experiments at a standard telecom wavelength and demonstrate photonic integrated circuits as a promising, scalable resource for future formation of metropolitan quantum-secure communications networks.

  16. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian

    2013-12-04

    Magellania venosa, the largest recent brachiopod, occurs in clusters and banks in population densities of up to 416 ind m-2 in Comau Fjord, Northern Chilean fjord region. Below 15 m, it co-occurs with the mytilid Aulacomya atra and it dominates the benthic community below 20 m. To determine the question of why M. venosa is a successful competitor, the in situ growth rate of the brachiopod was studied and its overall growth performance compared with that of other brachiopods and mussels. The growth in length was measured between February 2011 and March 2012 after mechanical tagging and calcein staining. Settlement and juvenile growth were determined from recruitment tiles installed in 2009 and from subsequent photocensus. Growth of M. venosa is best described by the general von Bertalanffy growth function, with a maximum shell length (L∞) of 71.53 mm and a Brody growth constant (K) of 0.336 year-1. The overall growth performance (OGP index = 5.1) is the highest recorded for a rynchonelliform brachiopod and in the range of that for Mytilus chilensis (4.8-5.27), but lower than that of A. atra (5.74). The maximal individual production (PInd) is 0.29 g AFDM ind-1 year-1 at 42 mm shell length and annual production ranges from 1.28 to 89.25 g AFDM year-1 m-2 (1-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass of the population (P/B--ratio) is low (0.535) and M. venosa may play only a minor role in the food chain. Settling dynamics indicates that M. venosa is a pioneer species with low juvenile mortality. The coexistence of the brachiopod and bivalve suggests that brachiopod survival is affected by neither the presence of potential brachiopod predators nor that of space competitors (i.e. mytilids).

  17. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  18. Understanding metropolitan patterns of daily encounters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W; Lee, Der-Horng; Huang, Xianfeng

    2013-08-20

    Understanding of the mechanisms driving our daily face-to-face encounters is still limited; the field lacks large-scale datasets describing both individual behaviors and their collective interactions. However, here, with the help of travel smart card data, we uncover such encounter mechanisms and structures by constructing a time-resolved in-vehicle social encounter network on public buses in a city (about 5 million residents). Using a population scale dataset, we find physical encounters display reproducible temporal patterns, indicating that repeated encounters are regular and identical. On an individual scale, we find that collective regularities dominate distinct encounters' bounded nature. An individual's encounter capability is rooted in his/her daily behavioral regularity, explaining the emergence of "familiar strangers" in daily life. Strikingly, we find individuals with repeated encounters are not grouped into small communities, but become strongly connected over time, resulting in a large, but imperceptible, small-world contact network or "structure of co-presence" across the whole metropolitan area. Revealing the encounter pattern and identifying this large-scale contact network are crucial to understanding the dynamics in patterns of social acquaintances, collective human behaviors, and--particularly--disclosing the impact of human behavior on various diffusion/spreading processes.

  19. Forest Fires in the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ: Risk knowledge and public intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Estacio

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Every summer, the Metropolitan District of Quito (MDQ is subject to the recurrence of forest fires with different consequences in terms of loss of protected areas of great biodiversity, affectation of public and private spaces of different use and impact on the population well-being. The management of municipal authorities of this type of risks is still limited, since there is no decisional tool that can improve the preventive planning and the response to the annual presence of these events. For this reason, the generation of a study on potential fores fires represents the first step towards the comprehension and the reduction of risks. The present article presents the result of this study, the mechanisms and the efforts of the municipal technicians that made possible the achievement of these tools in the frame of the Risk Reduction Program of the Metropolitan District of Quito. The obtained results allowed the implementation of prevention actions in areas with very valuable ecosystems services but fragile in the same time, as well as the improvement of the fire emergency plans in order to optimize resources and reinforce local capacities. 

  20. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian; Laudien, Jü rgen; Jantzen, Carin; Hä ussermann, Verena; Fö rsterra, Gü nter

    2013-01-01

    -57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass

  1. Use of psychotropic medications in São Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil: pattern of healthcare provision to general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanha, Angela Maria; Siu, Erica Rosanna; Milhorança, Igor André; Viana, Maria Carmen; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Andrade, Laura Helena

    2015-11-01

    We estimate the proportion of psychotropic medication use (PMU) among adults in São Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil. We investigated whether socio-demographic factors, comorbidity, and disease severity influence PMU among individuals with psychiatric disorders. Data are from the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey, a cross-sectional, population-based study, the Brazilian branch of the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Trained lay interviewers face-to-face assessed psychiatric disorders and PMU through the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Respondents were asked about use of healthcare service and prescribed medications for mental disorders in the previous year. Information on PMU was collected for 2935 adult residents in the area and among those with disorders who received treatment. Around 6% of respondents reported PMU in the past year: hypnotics or sedatives were used by 3.7% and antidepressants by 3.5%. Among individuals with 12-month disorders, only 14% reported past year PMU. Gender, age, education, income, occupational status, comorbidity, and severity were significant predictors for PMU. Among those with 12-month DSM-IV disorders who obtained treatment in healthcare settings, almost 40% received medication only. Among those treated in specialty mental health service, around 23% received combination of medication and psychotherapy. Our study has pointed out that the recent trend of access to mental healthcare in Brazil depicts unmet needs, characterized by a low prevalence of PMU among individuals with psychiatric disorders. Policies that improve appropriate access to prescribed drugs for those most in need are urgent public health priority. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  3. Modeling effects of cadmium on population growth of Palaemonetes pugio: Results of a full life cycle exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manyin, Teresa; Rowe, Christopher L.

    2008-01-01

    In an 8-month laboratory experiment, Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp) were exposed to aqueous cadmium (free cadmium ion concentrations of 1.51 or 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L) for an entire life cycle, from larva to reproductive adult and through to production of second-generation larva. Individual-level effects on survival, life stage duration, and reproduction were measured, and population growth was projected using two models: a stage-based matrix model and a z-transformed life cycle graph analysis. Adult survival was significantly reduced at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, but cadmium exposure had no effects on survival or stage duration of embryos, larvae, or juveniles. Survival of second-generation larvae was unaffected by maternal exposure. Brood size was reduced by 27% at 1.51 μg Cd 2+ /L and by 36% at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L. The percent of females in the population that was gravid was approximately 50% lower at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, compared to controls. Both population models projected a dose-dependent decrease in population growth rate (λ), up to a 12% reduction at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, which can be attributed mainly to contributions from reproductive effects. Elasticity analysis revealed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in survival of juveniles and adults. However, lethal effects of cadmium made only a small contribution to the effect on population growth rate. Even though both models project positive growth (λ > 1) of grass shrimp populations exposed to low concentrations of cadmium, the ability of populations to withstand predation pressure would be compromised

  4. Modeling effects of cadmium on population growth of Palaemonetes pugio: Results of a full life cycle exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manyin, Teresa [University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, PO Box 38, 1 Williams Street, Solomons, MD 20688 (United States)], E-mail: manyin@cbl.umces.edu; Rowe, Christopher L. [University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, PO Box 38, 1 Williams Street, Solomons, MD 20688 (United States)

    2008-06-23

    In an 8-month laboratory experiment, Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp) were exposed to aqueous cadmium (free cadmium ion concentrations of 1.51 or 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L) for an entire life cycle, from larva to reproductive adult and through to production of second-generation larva. Individual-level effects on survival, life stage duration, and reproduction were measured, and population growth was projected using two models: a stage-based matrix model and a z-transformed life cycle graph analysis. Adult survival was significantly reduced at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L, but cadmium exposure had no effects on survival or stage duration of embryos, larvae, or juveniles. Survival of second-generation larvae was unaffected by maternal exposure. Brood size was reduced by 27% at 1.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L and by 36% at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L. The percent of females in the population that was gravid was approximately 50% lower at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L, compared to controls. Both population models projected a dose-dependent decrease in population growth rate ({lambda}), up to a 12% reduction at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L, which can be attributed mainly to contributions from reproductive effects. Elasticity analysis revealed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in survival of juveniles and adults. However, lethal effects of cadmium made only a small contribution to the effect on population growth rate. Even though both models project positive growth ({lambda} > 1) of grass shrimp populations exposed to low concentrations of cadmium, the ability of populations to withstand predation pressure would be compromised.

  5. Mating system, population growth, and management scenario for Kalanchoe pinnata in an invaded seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González de León, Salvador; Herrera, Ileana; Guevara, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east-central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand-pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life-stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand-pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross-pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self- and cross-pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self-compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self-compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies.

  6. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  7. [Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1993-01-01

    This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place

  8. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  9. Growth Indicators of a 48-Clone Sugar Cane Population (Saccharum spp. with Forage Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoslen Fernández Gálvez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to determine growth indicators in a 48-clone sugar cane population, with promising phenotypical features for forage production. The following indicators were assessed: leaf area (A, leaf area index (LA1; leaf area ratio (LAR; specific leaf area (SLA; leaf weight ratio (LWR; crop growth rate (CGR; net assimilation rate (NAR; relative growth rate in weight (RGR; biomass production speed (G; leaf area duration (LAD; and biomass duration (Z, monthly (187 - 370 days. The minimum, the mean, the maximum values, and the population variance were determined for all cutting ages and the variables assessed. The results achieved have provided quantitative values that can be used as reference for selection and assessment of forage genotypes for ruminant nutrition.

  10. Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment and Depression among a Population Aged over 60 Years in the Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Genaro G; Arias-Merino, Elva D; Flores-Saiffe, María E; Velázquez-Brizuela, Irma E; Macías-Islas, Miguel A; Pacheco-Moisés, Fermín P

    2012-01-01

    Background. Cognitive impairment is an important clinical issue among elderly patients with depression and has a more complex etiology because of the variable rate of neurodegenerative changes associated with depression. The aim of the present work was to examine the prevalence of cognitive impairment and depression in a representative sample of adults aged ≥60 years. Methods. The presented work was a cross-sectional study on the prevalence of cognitive impairment and depression. Door-to-door interview technique was assigned in condition with multistage probability random sampling to obtain subjects that represent a population of the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA), Mexico. Cognitive function and depression were assessed by applying standardized Mini-Mental State Examination of Folstein (MMSE) and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively. Results. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 13.8% (14.5% women, 12.6% men); no significant differences by gender and retired or pensioner were found. Prevalence of depression was 29.1% (33.6% women, 21.1% men); no significant differences by retired or pensioner were found. Cognitive impairment was associated with depression (OR  =  3.26, CI 95%, 2.31-4.60). Prevalence of cognitive impairment and depression is associated with: being woman, only in depression being older than 75 years being married, and a low level of education. Conclusion. Cognitive impairment and depression are highly correlated in adults aged ≥60.

  11. Study on the Coupling Coordination Degree between Metropolitan Economic System and Water Environmental System - Taking Beijing as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Ming

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The generation of metropolis is the inevitable outcome of the development of urbanization to a certain stage. The economy and society of metropolis are in the rapid development, but this process brings great pressure to the ecological environment, especially the water resources environment at the same time. In this paper, the relationship between metropolitan economic system and water environmental system is deeply studied, and the concept of “coupling” is introduced. Based on the framework of “pressure-state-response” (PSR, 12 detailed indexes, such as total population and water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP, were selected to construct four subsystems. The coordination degree measurement model has been used to calculate the degree of coupling between the economic system and water environmental system. On this basis, the following conclusions are drawn through the example of Beijing city: (1 In the process of metropolitan development, the economic system and the water environmental system are interrelated and there exist a complex coupling mechanism. (2 With the adjustment of economic structure and the progress of technology, the coupling index between the metropolitan economic system and the water environmental system has been increasing, and this process shows an upward trend

  12. Lead Emissions and Population Vulnerability in the Detroit (Michigan, USA Metropolitan Area, 2006–2013: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Moody

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this research is to geographically model airborne lead emission concentrations and total lead deposition in the Detroit Metropolitan Area (DMA from 2006 to 2013. Further, this study characterizes the racial and socioeconomic composition of recipient neighborhoods and estimates the potential for IQ (Intelligence Quotient loss of children residing there. Methods: Lead emissions were modeled from emitting facilities in the DMA using AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model. Multilevel modeling was used to estimate local racial residential segregation, controlling for poverty. Global Moran’s I bivariate spatial autocorrelation statistics were used to assess modeled emissions with increasing segregation. Results: Lead emitting facilities were primarily located in, and moving to, highly black segregated neighborhoods regardless of poverty levels—a phenomenon known as environmental injustice. The findings from this research showed three years of elevated airborne emission concentrations in these neighborhoods to equate to a predicted 1.0 to 3.0 reduction in IQ points for children living there. Across the DMA there are many areas where annual lead deposition was substantially higher than recommended for aquatic (rivers, lakes, etc. and terrestrial (forests, dunes, etc. ecosystems. These lead levels result in decreased reproductive and growth rates in plants and animals, and neurological deficits in vertebrates. Conclusions: This lead-hazard and neighborhood context assessment will inform future childhood lead exposure studies and potential health consequences in the DMA.

  13. Learning from urban growth management in the Pacific Northwest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The development of contemporary urban growth management in the Northwest United States began in the 1970s. The major tool is the implementation of urban containment boundaries, fostering growth within and limiting it outside the boundary. Additionally a set of policies reaching from densification...... Washington and Oregon as e.g. the municipalities in Denmark have strong control options in planning. However, especially the metropolitan co-operation and co-ordination instruments can certainly contribute to the discussion on urban growth management in Denmark and elsewhere....

  14. [Demographic dynamics, migrants from bordering countries and economic activity in Buenos Aires].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lattes, A E; Bertoncello, R

    1997-04-01

    The growth and changes--by age, sex, and place of birth--in the structure of the total population of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area and of the subpopulation over 15 years of age and economically active are analyzed for the decade of the 1980s. Study of the economic participation of migrants and its possible influence on levels of employment or unemployment should be carried out within the framework of changes in the population's structure and economic participation. The 1981 and 1991 censuses and the Permanent Survey of Households were the sources of data. Immigration to Argentina has declined considerably in recent years, but it is still a factor in the population growth of metropolitan Buenos Aires. Between the 1981 and 1991 censuses, the population aged 15 and over grew by 10.9/1000, or a total of 827,806 people. Migrants from bordering countries increased in number (by 85,109, or 10.3%) and in proportion to the total population (from 3.9% to 4.6%). Migrant women increased at the highest rate (30.1/1000). The greatest growth occurred among men aged 40 and over and among women aged 35 and over. The growth of the economically active population over age 15 for different groups of national origin, sex, and age showed much greater heterogeneity. In 1991, women from bordering countries represented 3.8% of all women in metropolitan Buenos Aires but 5.7% of the total economically active female population and nearly 7% of the economically active female population aged 35 and over. Women from neighboring countries were responsible for 10.3% of the growth in the economically active female population aged 30-34 and 40-44 between 1981 and 1991. The absolute and relative increases in migrants from neighboring countries and their greater economic participation tend to increase the general level of economic activity.

  15. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Express Type 1 Fimbriae Only in Surface Adherent Populations Under Physiological Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stærk, Kristian; Kolmos, Hans Jørn; Khandige, Surabhi

    2016-01-01

    were correlated with the ability to adhere to and invade cultured human bladder cells. RESULTS:  Although inactive during planktonic growth in urine, T1F expression occurs when UPEC settles on and infects bladder epithelial cells or colonizes catheters. As a result, UPEC in these sessile populations...... with increased expression during surface growth adaptation and infection of uroepithelial cells. This leads to separation of UPEC into low-expression planktonic populations and high-expression sessile populations....... enhances bladder cell adhesion and invasion potential. Only T1F-negative UPEC are subsequently released to the urine, thus limiting T1F expression to surface-associated UPEC alone. CONCLUSION:  Our results demonstrate that T1F expression is strictly regulated under physiological growth conditions...

  16. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  17. A typology of female sex work in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmar, Julieta; Stuardo, Valeria; Folch, Cinta; Carvajal, Bielka; Clunes, Maria José; Montoliu, Alexandra; Casabona, Jordi

    2018-04-01

    In Chile, sex work takes place covertly in a variety of venues and locations. Formative research using time-location sampling methods is important in order to understand the nature of this diversity. This study used qualitative methods to develop a typology of female sex work in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile, using semi-structured interviews, focus groups and ethnographic fieldwork during visits to sex work venues. The study identified seven types of venue, which reflect the context and regulatory framework of the country and the structural vulnerabilities that affect female sex workers in Chile. These venues and locations include: cafés con piernas (coffee with legs); nightclubs, topless bars and cabarets; brothels; hotels; street and highway soliciting; massage parlours; and private residences. Formative research methods were helpful in identifying and characterising the venues and locations in which sex work occurred. Barriers to accessing and mapping specific locations were also identified. Recommendations for addressing these barriers include working with non-governmental organisations to map venues and initiate contact with the populations of interest. A comprehensive typology of sex work in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile, is an essential element for future time-location sampling and bio-behavioural research in the context of second-generation surveillance for HIV and sexually transmitted infections in Chile.

  18. Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, T.; Grotan, V.; Jenouvrier, S.; Saether, B.E.; Visser, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by

  19. Changing Housing Patterns in Metropolitan Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grier, George; Grier, Eunice

    1975-01-01

    This testimony, before a public hearing of the New York City Commission on Human Rights in May 1974, summarizes extensive studies of changing minority residential patterns in metropolitan Washington and less extensive studies of other groups; the prospects for future desegregation and for using the growing economic potential of minority families…

  20. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    examples to show how reproductive timing Tc and level R0 are shaped by stage dynamics (individual trait changes), selection on the trait, and parent-offspring phenotypic correlation. We also show how population structure can affect dispersion in reproduction among ages and stages. These macroscopic...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...

  1. [Puebla: the contradictions of growth and urban planning in the nineties].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Mendoza, S; Rojas Bonilla, J L; Vazquez Lopez, J

    1991-12-01

    A series of questions and observations are presented relating to urban problems resulting from demographic growth and economic development in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Although the date used are primarily for the city of Puebla, the metropolitan conurbation in its totality should be the true focus of study. The major problems in the city of Puebla result from the inability of market forces to satisfy growing needs for employment, housing, and transport, and from limitations on the ability of the municipal administration to provide and improve the public services demanded by the population. If the metropolitan area is not viewed as a whole, there is a great risk that uncontrolled growth will continue while problems in the conurbation will be underestimated. Puebla's most rapid period of growth occurred in the 1960s, when significant development took place in manufacturing. An inventory of proposed solutions to problems of urban development and social welfare in Puebla was conducted using data from the Development Plan of the state of Puebla for 1987-93 and reports of the state government and of municipal government programs for 1987-1990 and 1990-1993. The various plans mention 281 separate proposals, 218 actions, and 16 strategies. Severe financial limitations and technical and conceptual shortcomings however will probably prevent many from being implemented. Among the persisting problems in Puebla that have been recognized but are likely to worsen are the 38% deficit of drinking water and 30% loss through leakage and waste; the lack of water treatment and inadequate capacity of the sewage system and the failure to operate 7 existing water treatment plants because of the high cost; the lack of solid waste disposal facilities and existence of only 1 landfill that receives only 32% of the 1450 tons of solid waste produced daily; the lack of paved roads and failure to maintain existing roads, and poor planning and inadequacy of public transportation routes. The

  2. Limitations of urban development in land of social origin: the case of the metropolitan area of the city of Toluca (ZMCT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiménez-Sánchez Pedro Leobardo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the occupation process of agricultural land with social origin and urban uses in the metropolitan area of the city of Toluca (ZMCT, and the barriers that the population and authorities have to face in order to regularize the settlements. A mixed research method was applied, which included the use of quantitative and qualitative methods, on the basis of a theoretical analysis, to build a methodological research model, which was applied to an empirical case in municipal and metropolitan areas. The analysis of the 14 municipalities that constitute ZMCT shows that the barriers for regularizing settlements in land of social origin are the result of legal/administrative inefficiencies due to the incapability of local city halls to address the collective needs of society.

  3. Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

    2010-12-01

    Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and

  4. A note on the status of women as a factor in population growth in less developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidlaw, K A; Pugh, M D; Stockwell, E G

    1980-01-01

    The 1978 U.S. Bureau of the Census reported 4.3 billion as the world's population. 3.1 billion were living in the less developed areas where life is characterized by poverty and low levels of material well-being. In the develop countries the per capita income averaged $490, compared to $5,210 in developed areas. Little attention has been paid to the status of women in developing countries, where the impact of development often has a negative effect. As a measure of women's status, rates are given for male/female infant mortality. If the ratio is less than 1.14 the status of women is low. If the is 1.15-1.24 the status is medium. If the ratio is 1.25 and over, women enjoy high status. In countries where women have low status the population growth ra averages 3%. Where the status of women is medium, the growth rate is 2.5%. I countries of high status the population growth rate is 2.2. Further research is needed on correlations between population and economic growth, with particula emphasis on subtle factors behind population/economic development.

  5. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E; Lin, John C; Bowling, David R; Pataki, Diane E; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E; Stephens, Britton B; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R; Ehleringer, James R

    2018-03-20

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2 , implying a nonlinear relationship with CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  6. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  7. Spatio-temporal aspects of gated residential security estates in non-metropolitan Western Cape

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Spocter, M

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available . This research attempts to address this research gap by focusing on the spatio-temporal aspects of non-metropolitan gated residential security estates in the Western Cape Province. It was found that most non-metropolitan gated residential security estates were...

  8. Nonylphenol stimulates fecundity but not population growth rate (λ) of Folsomia candida

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widarto, T. H.; Krogh, P. H.; Forbes, V. E.

    2007-01-01

    of NP on these traits did not result in a statistically significant increase in population growth rate (λ). Decomposition analysis indicated that fecundity was the main contributor to the (non-significant) changes observed in λ However, since the elasticity of fecundity was very low, large changes...... at the population level and that λ is an appropriate endpoint for ecotoxicological studies. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  9. Development and population growth of Hydra viridissima Pallas, 1766 (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa in the laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FC. Massaro

    Full Text Available Hydras, the most representative freshwater Cnidaria, are of common occurrence in bodies of water in every continent except Antarctica. This study was planned with the aim of maintaining a population of Hydra viridissima in laboratory culture to enable the determination of the individual and population growth-rates of this species, as well as its population doubling time and generation time, with a view to employing these common animals as test-organisms in ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were maintained in reconstituted water at 20 ± 2 °C, illuminated at 800 lux with a photoperiod of 12 hours light: 12 hours dark, and were fed on neonates of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (3 or 4 neonates per hydra, 3 times a week. The individual growth-rate (k of the species was 0.43, the maximum length of the column 2.53 mm and the generation time 6.6 ± 1.5 days on average. The hydra population showed an intrinsic growth-rate (r of 0.0468, according to the fitted curve, and a doubling time of 14.8 ± 2.63 days. Hydra viridissima is easy to grow in the laboratory and performs well in the conditions used in this study. It is thus a promising candidate test-organism for ecotoxicological studies.

  10. Non-growth transition in the housing sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xue, Jin

    This article examines the extents to which economic growth and housing stock growth has been decoupled from negative environmental impacts over the latest two decades in the metropolitan areas of Hangzhou (China) and Copenhagen (Denmark). Research results show that housing stock growth and economic...... growth has been, at best, weakly decoupled from environment impacts, implying that the goal of sustainable housing development has not been fulfilled by the decoupling strategies. The long-term incompatibility between housing stock growth and environmental sustainability suggests the necessity of non......-growth in the housing sector in order to reduce the environmental impacts from housing consumption to be within the ecological capacity. On the basis of an analysis of drivers of housing stock growth, the visions for a non-growth housing stock in both city regions are imagined in terms of potential risks...

  11. Daily Mobility and Residential Migrations in the Montréal Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles Sénécal

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to simultaneously examine two types of mobility by developing a model of metropolitan organization that emphasizes the axis structure of mobility. The model is based on the realities of daily mobility and long-term residential mobility. Origin−Destination study results validated the axis representation of the metropolitan structure. Furthermore, building on data from a telephone survey, we considered the interactions between the two types of mobility along the Center-North axis of Montréal’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA. The ensuing discussion on various models of metropolitan structure and their relevance today is framed in terms of the axes of mobility defined as territorial practices that are established within the patterns of daily life and are a significant factor in residential location decisions. The study raises broader issues concerning the relevance of drawing on standard models such as Burgess’s concentric zone model, Hoyt’s sector theory, Adam’s directional bias, or recent findings from the literature to understand urban form dynamics in the CMA.

  12. Variations in growth, survival and carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) among Pinus pinaster populations of different geographic origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Isabel; Almeida, Maria Helena; Aguiar, Alexandre; Alía, Ricardo; David, Teresa Soares; Pereira, João Santos

    2008-10-01

    To evaluate differences in growth and adaptability of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.), we studied growth, polycyclism, needle tissue carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) as an estimate of water-use efficiency (WUE) and survival of seven populations at 10 years of age growing in a performance trial at a provenance test site in Escaroupim, Portugal. Six populations were from relatively high rainfall sites in Portugal and southwestern France (Atlantic group), and one population was from a more arid Mediterranean site in Spain. There were significant differences between some populations in total height, diameter at breast height, delta(13)C of bulk needle tissue, polycyclism and survival. A population from central Portugal (Leiria, on the Atlantic coast) was the tallest and had the lowest delta(13)C. Overall, the variation in delta(13)C was better explained by the mean minimum temperatures of the coldest month than by annual precipitation at the place of origin. Analyses of the relationships between delta(13)C and growth or survival revealed a distinct pattern for the Mediterranean population, with low delta(13)C (and WUE) associated with the lowest growth potential and reduced survival. There were significant negative correlations between delta(13)C and height or survival in the Atlantic group. Variation in polycyclism was correlated with annual precipitation at the place of origin. Some Atlantic populations maintained a high growth potential while experiencing moderate water stress. A detailed knowledge of the relationships between growth, survival and delta(13)C in contrasting environments will enhance our ability to select populations for forestry or conservation.

  13. Movement Technologies, Scale Structure and Metropolitan Life – an Empirical Research on the Effects of the Transportation System on the Metropolitan Process in Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Sheng

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a morphological study on Beijing’s metropolitanisation process based on the development of its transportation networks. By extracting the ‘scale structure’ embedded in them, we construct a movement network model for Beijing and use it to analyse changing metropolitan centralities as shopping areas and market places in 1924, 1987 and 2006. Following Taylor’s proposal of Central Flow as a complementary model to Central Place, our study focuses on how the spatial distribution of metropolitan centralities has been affected by the rapid modernisation of transportation networks.

  14. What's so local about global climate change? Testing social theories of environmental degradation to quantify the demographic, economic, and governmental factors associated with energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in U.S. metropolitan areas and counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribbia, John Luke

    This research investigates the consequence of a crucial and not yet fully explored problem: the reluctance of the United States to sign and ratify international agreements, like Kyoto, that aim to mitigate climate change and its underlying social and ecological impacts. This unwillingness has inspired local governments, mayors, metropolitan area governance consortia, state governments, and governors to take on the climate challenge without the directive of the federal government. Local areas of the U.S. are experiencing climate-change-related impacts such as receding beach lines due to sea level rise and intense storms, fresh water shortages, and extreme weather events. As a result, researchers have begun to explore the human dimensions of climate change through an inquiry in: among many other topics, the vulnerability of local areas to the impacts of climate change and the forces shaping local areas' contribution to climate change. This study addresses the latter issue using the STIRPAT framework - a reformulated version of the I=(P)(A)(T) formulation that relates environmental impacts (I) to population growth (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). I address three questions that have thus far been poorly answered in prior research: "across the U.S., do local areas differ in the extent of their contribution to climate change?", "what are the causes of variation in energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across local areas?" and "which social theories best explain the causes of variation in energy use and CO2 emissions across local areas?" To make strides in answering these questions and contribute to the understanding of local level drivers of energy consumption and emissions, this research analyzes the causes of variation in: energy use and CO2 emissions in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas in chapter 4, the change in energy consumption between 2000 and 2005 for these metropolitan areas in chapter 5, and CO2 emissions in all U.S. counties in chapter 6

  15. Fetal growth and psychiatric and socioeconomic problems: population-based sibling comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Class, Quetzal A; Rickert, Martin E; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

    2014-11-01

    It is unclear whether associations between fetal growth and psychiatric and socioeconomic problems are consistent with causal mechanisms. To estimate the extent to which associations are a result of unmeasured confounding factors using a sibling-comparison approach. We predicted outcomes from continuously measured birth weight in a Swedish population cohort (n = 3 291 773), while controlling for measured and unmeasured confounding. In the population, lower birth weight (⩽ 2500 g) increased the risk of all outcomes. Sibling-comparison models indicated that lower birth weight independently predicted increased risk for autism spectrum disorder (hazard ratio for low birth weight = 2.44, 95% CI 1.99-2.97) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Although attenuated, associations remained for psychotic or bipolar disorder and educational problems. Associations with suicide attempt, substance use problems and social welfare receipt, however, were fully attenuated in sibling comparisons. Results suggest that fetal growth, and factors that influence it, contribute to psychiatric and socioeconomic problems. Royal College of Psychiatrists.

  16. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

  17. Trends in population growth in China's towns during the eighties, and town population in-migration and its decisive factors: a historic convergence of two types of demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J

    1990-01-01

    Relying on socioeconomic and population statistics, as well as population censuses, the author examines the growth of China's towns in the 1980s due to in-migration, and considers the economic causes and impact of the growth of towns. Prior to 1984, China's urbanization had been slow and uneven. But in the 4 years from 1984-87, China's urban population grew 3.8 times faster than the period before 1984. and unlike the previous pattern of urbanization, slightly over half of the urban growth occurred in small cities and towns. The rapid growth of towns was due to an unprecedented level of in-migration into towns from agricultural villages. This population transformed itself into a nonagricultural population. The author attributes the increase in urbanization and its changing patterns to a historic convergence: the shift in industry for the agricultural population and a regional shift for the village population--realized through a form of village-to-town population migration. The author goes on to examine the development of small-town enterprises, facilitated after the rural reform of 1984. The author notes that since that year, small-town industries have flourished, a development that has had a number of beneficial effects on both the provincial areas and the nation as a whole. Finally, the author considers the factors that have fueled town population in-migration: 1) in most provinces, higher incomes in towns have attracted people from the villages; and 2) in provinces with little discrepancy in income between town and village, a combination of the regions' relative isolation and government policy preventing migration to cities have spurred the growth of towns.

  18. Firearm homicides and suicides in major metropolitan areas - United States, 2006-2007 and 2009-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-02

    Firearm homicides and suicides are a continuing public health concern in the United States. During 2009-2010, a total of 22,571 firearm homicides and 38,126 firearm suicides occurred among U.S. residents. This includes 3,397 firearm homicides and 1,548 firearm suicides among persons aged 10-19 years; the firearm homicide rate for this age group was slightly above the all-ages rate. This report updates an earlier report that provided statistics on firearm homicides and suicides in major metropolitan areas for 2006-2007, with special emphasis on persons aged 10-19 years in recognition of the importance of early prevention efforts. Firearm homicide and suicide rates were calculated for the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 2009-2010 using mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Comparison statistics were recalculated for 2006-2007 to reflect revisions to MSA delineations and population estimates subsequent to the earlier report. Although the firearm homicide rate for large MSAs collectively remained above the national rate during 2009-2010, more than 75% of these MSAs showed a decreased rate from 2006-2007, largely accounting for a national decrease. The firearm homicide rate for persons aged 10-19 years exceeded the all-ages rate in many of these MSAs during 2009-2010, similar to the earlier reporting period. Conversely, although the firearm suicide rate for large MSAs collectively remained below the national rate during 2009-2010, nearly 75% of these MSAs showed an increased rate from 2006-2007, paralleling the national trend. Firearm suicide rates among persons aged 10-19 years were low compared with all-ages rates during both periods. These patterns can inform the development and monitoring of strategies directed at reducing firearm-related violence.

  19. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  20. The Hydro-Economic Interdependency of Cities: Virtual Water Connections of the Phoenix, Arizona Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R. Rushforth

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Water footprinting has revealed hydro-economic interdependencies between distant global geographies via trade, especially of agricultural and manufactured goods. However, for metropolitan areas, trade not only entails commodity flows at many scales from intra-municipal to global, but also substantial intra-metropolitan flows of the skilled labor that is essential to a city’s high-value economy. Virtual water flows between municipalities are directly relevant for municipal water supply policy and infrastructure investment because they quantify the hydro-economic dependency between neighboring municipalities. These municipalities share a physical water supply and also place demands on their neighbors’ water supplies by outsourcing labor and commodity production outside the municipal and water supply system boundary to the metropolitan area. Metropolitan area communities span dense urban cores to fringe agricultural towns, spanning a wide range of the US hydro-economy. This study quantifies water footprints and virtual water flows of the complete economy of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area’s municipalities. A novel approach utilized journey to work data to estimate virtual water flows embedded in labor. Commodities dominate virtual water flows at all scales of analysis, however labor is shown to be important for intra-metropolitan virtual water flows. This is the first detailed water footprint analysis of Phoenix, an important city in a water-scarce region. This study establishes a hydro-economic typology for communities to define several niche roles and decision making points of view. This study’s findings can be used to classify communities with respect to their relative roles, and to benchmark future improvements in water sustainability for all types of communities. More importantly, these findings motivate cooperative approaches to intra-metropolitan water supply policy that recognize the hydro-economic interdependence of these

  1. Urban food security at the crossroads between metropolitan food planning and global trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wascher, Dirk Michael; Jeurissen, Leonne

    2017-01-01

    Making use of Life Cycle Thinking, the Metropolitan Foodscape Planner (MFP) tool provides ecological footprint maps and supply/demand data showing a large potential for metropolitan food supplies. In the discussion, we examine these results in the light of recent research on the impacts of the

  2. An application of the variable-r method to subpopulation growth rates in a 19th century agricultural population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corey Sparks

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the differential growth rates of the farming and non-farming segments of a rural Scottish community during the 19th and early 20th centuries using the variable-r method allowing for net migration. Using this method, I find that the farming population of Orkney, Scotland, showed less variability in their reproduction and growth rates than the non-farming population during a period of net population decline. I conclude by suggesting that the variable-r method can be used in general cases where the relative growth of subpopulations or subpopulation reproduction is of interest.

  3. Twelve metropolitan carbon footprints. A preliminary comparative global assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Brown, Marilyn A.

    2010-01-01

    A dearth of available data on carbon emissions and comparative analysis between metropolitan areas make it difficult to confirm or refute best practices and policies. To help provide benchmarks and expand our understanding of urban centers and climate change, this article offers a preliminary comparison of the carbon footprints of 12 metropolitan areas. It does this by examining emissions related to vehicles, energy used in buildings, industry, agriculture, and waste. The carbon emissions from these sources - discussed here as the metro area's partial carbon footprint - provide a foundation for identifying the pricing, land use, help metropolitan areas throughout the world respond to climate change. The article begins by exploring a sample of the existing literature on urban morphology and climate change and explaining the methodology used to calculate each area's carbon footprint. The article then depicts the specific carbon footprints for Beijing, Jakarta, London, Los Angeles, Manila, Mexico City, New Delhi, New York, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Singapore, and Tokyo and compares these to respective national averages. It concludes by offering suggestions for how city planners and policymakers can reduce the carbon footprint of these and possibly other large urban areas. (author)

  4. Do social grants contribute to the jobless population growth in the former South African homelands?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Geyer, H

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available migration. A possible reason could be the high level of dependency on social grants in the former homelands. The article analyses population growth rates, economic growth rates and the ratio of social grant recipients within former homeland settlements...

  5. Assessing the Impact of Chlorinated-Solvent Sites on Metropolitan Groundwater Resources

    OpenAIRE

    Brusseau, Mark L.; Narter, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Chlorinated-solvent compounds are among the most common groundwater contaminants in the U.S.A. The majority of the many sites contaminated by chlorinated-solvent compounds are located in metropolitan areas, and most such areas have one or more chlorinated-solvent contaminated sites. Thus, contamination of groundwater by chlorinated-solvent compounds may pose a potential risk to the sustainability of potable water supplies for many metropolitan areas. The impact of chlorinated-solvent sites on...

  6. Tracking the deployment of the integrated metropolitan ITS infrastructure in Orlando : FY99 results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    In January 1996, Secretary Pea set a goal of deploying the integrated metropolitan Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) infrastructure in 75 of the nations largest metropolitan areas by 2006. In 1997, the U.S. Department of Transportation ini...

  7. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  8. 75 FR 40726 - Revisions to the California State Implementation Plan, Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-14

    ... the California State Implementation Plan, Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District and South Coast Air Quality Management District AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION... Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD) and South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD...

  9. Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacaër, Nicolas

    2009-10-01

    This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

  10. Usage of Social Media in City Marketing: A Research on 30 Metropolitan Municipalities in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niyazi Gümüş

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid changes in information and communication technologies cause serious developments in marketing field similar to every sector. In parallel with these developments, the social media channels which appear as Web 2.0 applications have a number of advantages in comparison with traditional media channels. Social media gained a place in marketing activities because of its advantages. Social media is added on instruments in line with these developments that countries benefit in marketing activities for attracting more tourists, investment and becoming prominent against the other cities. Cities intensively benefit from social media because of social media’s properties like reaching the large masses, low marketing cost, interaction, receiving feedbacks rapidly, etc. Within this context, the purpose of this research is to determine the use statuses of social media by metropolitan municipalities as part of city marketing. In accordance with this purpose, official social media accounts of 30 metropolitan municipalities are investigated between the dates of 01/09/2016 and 30/09/2016, then their shares in social media channels are investigated in the context of city marketing.It is observed that two metropolitan municipalities do not have official Facebook accounts, four metropolitan municipalities do not have an official Twitter account as well. Again, it is found that 19 metropolitan municipalities do not have an official Instagram account and 17 metropolitan municipalities do not have official YouTube account. In consequence, it is observed that, our metropolitan municipalities do not benefit from social media effectively for city marketing activities.

  11. Public policy performance for social development : solar energy approach to assess technological outcome in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    OpenAIRE

    Arenas-Aquino, A.R.; Matsumoto-Kuwabara, Y.; Kleiche Dray, Mina

    2017-01-01

    Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is the most populated urban area in the country. In 2010, MCMA required 14.8% of total energy domestic demand, but greenhouse gas emissions accounted for 7.7% of domestic emissions. Mexico has massive renewable energy potential that could be harnessed through solar photovoltaic (PV) technology. The problem to explore is the relationship between local and federal public strategies in MCMA and their stance on energy transition concern, social empowerment, ne...

  12. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  13. Growth Performance Of Mono-Sex And Mixed Sex Population Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth performance of all-male, all-female and mixed sex population of Oreochromis niloticus fed similar diet was carried out. The fingerlings used in the study were of relatively similar weight ranges (24.8 g – 26.6 g) with initial mean weight of 25.7±1.3 g and initial mean total length of 3.8 ± 1.5 cm. The mean increase ...

  14. Impact of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Environmental Degradation of Lakes in Hyderabad City, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandan, M. J.; Sen, M. K.; Harini, P.; Sekhar, B. M.; Balaji, T.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are a vital part of urban ecosystems which perform important ecological and environmental functions to safeguard local climate, groundwater and habitat. The incessant population growth coupled with low urban planning is causing severe damage to urban ecosystems throughout the world. Hyderabad is one of the largest growing metropolitan cities of India covering an area of 65000 ha situated on the banks of Musi River in the northern part of the Deccan Plateau. The city had a population of 1.25 million in 1961 which increased to 6.8 million in 2011 with a metropolitan population of 7.75 million, making it India's fourth most populous city and sixth most populous urban agglomeration. Hyderabad is popularly known as 'City of Lakes' which occupies the top position in India in terms of Urban Lakes. In 20th century, the number of lakes were around 925 which are now reduced to 521 and most of these lakes are facing extinction. The water spread area of these lakes has been considerably reduced due to steady urban growth and the carrying capacity and ecological status of these urban lakes are in real danger. Many of these lakes have shrunk in size while the waters of several lakes got polluted with the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents. Taking into consideration the environmental degradation of urban lakes, an attempt was made to study the current status, loss of water bodies and water spread using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Time-series satellite images of MSS, IRS and RESOURCESAT and Survey of India maps of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 were used for this study. Analysis of these together with other data sets was accomplished through integrated use of ERDAS Imagine Arc view and ArcGIS software packages. It is estimated that there were 925 lakes in 1982 in erstwhile Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) area which came down to 521 in 2012. A total number of 404 lakes disappeared during the last 30 years period. Consequently the water spread

  15. 75 FR 40762 - Revisions to the California State Implementation Plan, Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-14

    ... the California State Implementation Plan, Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District and South Coast Air Quality Management District AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve revisions to the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality...

  16. Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  17. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  18. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  19. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  20. A tale of two scales: Evaluating the relationship among life satisfaction, social capital, income, and the natural environment at individual and neighborhood levels in metropolitan Baltimore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanda W. Vemuri; J. Morgan Grove; Matthew A. Wilson; William R. Jr. Burch

    2011-01-01

    With the rapid growth of cities worldwide, there is a need to better understand factors contributing to life satisfaction in urban environments. Using data from a long-term study of the Baltimore metropolitan region, we build on existing social scientific literature to examine a suite of theoretical factors that have been proposed to explain higher life satisfaction....

  1. Effects of population density on the growth and egg-laying capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of the population density of adult African giant land snail, Archachatina marginata on the egg-laying capacity and the growth of the brooders and hatchlings were investigated for 9 months. Ten culture pens were stocked with snails at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% capacity with each group in 2 replicates.

  2. Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment and Depression among a Population Aged over 60 Years in the Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genaro G. Ortiz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Cognitive impairment is an important clinical issue among elderly patients with depression and has a more complex etiology because of the variable rate of neurodegenerative changes associated with depression. The aim of the present work was to examine the prevalence of cognitive impairment and depression in a representative sample of adults aged ≥60 years. Methods. The presented work was a cross-sectional study on the prevalence of cognitive impairment and depression. Door-to-door interview technique was assigned in condition with multistage probability random sampling to obtain subjects that represent a population of the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA, Mexico. Cognitive function and depression were assessed by applying standardized Mini-Mental State Examination of Folstein (MMSE and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS, respectively. Results. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 13.8% (14.5% women, 12.6% men; no significant differences by gender and retired or pensioner were found. Prevalence of depression was 29.1% (33.6% women, 21.1% men; no significant differences by retired or pensioner were found. Cognitive impairment was associated with depression (OR  =  3.26, CI 95%, 2.31–4.60. Prevalence of cognitive impairment and depression is associated with: being woman, only in depression being older than 75 years being married, and a low level of education. Conclusion. Cognitive impairment and depression are highly correlated in adults aged ≥60.

  3. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  4. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric G. Johnson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1 lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2 distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3 the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  5. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

    2016-01-01

    The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  6. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  7. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  8. Smoking status and associated factors among male Chinese restaurant workers in metropolitan Sydney.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Leung, Brenda; Tam, Nancy; Xu, Huilan; Gleeson, Suzanne; Wen, Li Ming

    2017-03-01

    Issue addressed The smoking rate among male Chinese migrants in Australia is higher than among the general population. This study investigated the smoking rate of male Chinese restaurant workers in metropolitan Sydney, and explored factors associated with smoking and quitting. Methods A self-administered questionnaire survey was completed by Chinese workers in selected Chinese restaurants in metropolitan Sydney from October-December 2012. Eighty-nine Chinese restaurants were approached and 54 (61%) took part in the study. The questionnaire asked participants about their smoking status, knowledge of and attitudes to smoking and quitting as well as socio-demographic information. Multivariable logistic regression was built to assess the associated factors. Results Of the 382 participants who completed the survey, 171 (45%) were current smokers and 50% of current smokers wanted to quit smoking. Participants who spoke Mandarin, had lower English proficiency, did not realise environmental smoke harms children, did not prefer a smoke-free environment or had more than 50% of relatives or friends who smoked were more likely to be current smokers. Participants who were aged 18-29 years, did not understand the benefits of quitting smoking or did not prefer a smoke-free environment were less likely to want to quit. Conclusions Nearly 50% of male Chinese restaurant workers surveyed in this study were current smokers. Key factors associated with the participants' smoking or quitting status are: aged 18-29 years; speaking Mandarin; lower English literacy; and not knowing the dangers of smoking. So what? Tobacco control programs targetted at male Chinese restaurant workers that raise awareness of the harm caused by smoking and the benefits of quitting smoking are required to enhance intention to quit smoking within this population.

  9. Physical growth of the shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI references for an indigenous amazonian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urlacher, Samuel S; Blackwell, Aaron D; Liebert, Melissa A; Madimenos, Felicia C; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

    2016-01-01

    Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age: 0-29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS). Pseudo-velocity and Lambda-Mu-Sigma curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention and multinational World Health Organization growth references. The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. 78 FR 10589 - Revision of Air Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-14

    ... Quality Implementation Plan; California; Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District... Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD or District) portion of the California State... sources within the areas covered by the plan as necessary to assure that the National Ambient Air Quality...

  11. Recognition of management structure and spatial planning in Tehran metropolitan area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manijeh Lalehpour

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Metropolitan areas are concentrated and dense areas filled settlements and include a central urban region with its surrounding residences. Severity and complexity of issues in metropolitan areas along with intricacy and quantity of influential factors in these areas necessitate novel approaches and innovative solutions for comprehensive strategies and management coordination of land use in these regions. The present study has taken this approach to investigate management structure and spatial planning in Tehran metropolitan area. The study takes parameters like political and management decentralization, elements affecting urban management based on the sources of power and province and finally spatial domain of urban management into account. Findings revealed that decentralization in national management and political structure has limited tasks and authority of urban management. In this regard, a closer look at management structure and spatial planning of Tehran metropolitan are demonstrates that the government and its element dominate policy making, planning and spatial management of the city and inherent position of municipality and city council suffer weaknesses in their role as urban management. Results from investigating official tasks in urban management elements and their spatial domain reveals lack of coordination and Fragmentation in management structure and spatial planning in the region. The paper attempts to discuss these Fragmentation in the fields of management, function, politics and domains.

  12. Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Betsy A; Waring, Kristen M; Kolb, Thomas E

    2016-10-01

    The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Headship Rate for Population Projection in Johor Bahru

    OpenAIRE

    Rawan Nurfilzah Mohamad; Zainun Noor Yasmin; Alias Ahmad Rizal; Ibrahim Izzah Sofea

    2017-01-01

    Headship rate method is used to forecast population for housing demand. This paper presents the application of the method for forecasting population in Johor Bahru metropolitan city in Malaysia. Data used in the projection was based on census data of Johor Bahru provided by Department of Statistic Malaysia for the period of three years. Headship rate can be determined based on the ratio of head of household in age group by its age group total population. Hence, the purpose for this study is t...

  14. A Mediterranean case study of flood evolution: the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Cortès, Maria; Marcos, Raül; Martín-Vide, Juan Pedro; Turco, Marco; Falcón, Lluis

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk changes in Mediterranean Region integrate multiple factors, some of them related with the hazard (i.e. rainfall intensity), the vulnerability and exposure (i.e. population or assets), feedback processes that affect both hazard and vulnerability (i.e. urbanization of flood prone areas), mitigation and adaptation measures (i.e. rainwater tanks or early warning systems), and the available information used to estimate flood events (i.e. newspapers or gauged data). Flood events in the West Mediterranean region are usually produced as a consequence of very intense and local precipitation, mainly recorded on late summer and autumn that can give place to flash-floods in little torrential rivers (usually non-permanent flows) or urban floods. The Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB), Spain, constitutes a good paradigm of a Mediterranean coast region, with strong urbanization of flood prone areas and high population density in an area crossed by numerous streams. The AMB is constituted by 36 municipalities with a total population above 3.200.000 inhabitants in an extension of 636 km². The major part of the population is concentrated between the Besós River and the Llobregat River, the Littoral Range and the Mediterranean Sea. Although both rivers have experienced catastrophic flood events (i.e. 25 September 1962, 815 deaths; 19-23 September 1971, 19 deaths; October 1987, 8 deaths), the most frequent situation is related with floods in non-permanent streams. Their main impacts are consequence of drainage and runoff problems and can affect both urban and rural areas. This contribution explores the evolution of land uses, population and precipitation from the middle of the 20th century until now, and how these changes have affected (or not), the flood risk. To do it, daily and sub-daily rainfall series, discharge series for the Llobregat and Besós Rivers, population data and land use changes have been analyzed. Future precipitation projections provided by an

  15. Kansas City Metropolitan Community Colleges. Audit Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Missouri Office of the State Auditor, Jefferson City.

    This audit report reviews the employment contracts, related compensation, and other benefits provided for the chancellor and other officers of the Kansas City Metropolitan Community Colleges (KCMCC) in Missouri. The chancellor is allowed to either solicit bids or negotiate for contracted services such as architects, construction managers,…

  16. Customized versus population-based growth curves: prediction of low body fat percent at term corrected gestational age following preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Tameeka L; Katikaneni, Lakshmi D; Taylor, Sarah N; Korte, Jeffrey E; Ebeling, Myla D; Wagner, Carol L; Newman, Roger B

    2012-07-01

    Compare customized versus population-based growth curves for identification of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and body fat percent (BF%) among preterm infants. Prospective cohort study of 204 preterm infants classified as SGA or appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) by population-based and customized growth curves. BF% was determined by air-displacement plethysmography. Differences between groups were compared using bivariable and multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Customized curves reclassified 30% of the preterm infants as SGA. SGA infants identified by customized method only had significantly lower BF% (13.8 ± 6.0) than the AGA (16.2 ± 6.3, p = 0.02) infants and similar to the SGA infants classified by both methods (14.6 ± 6.7, p = 0.51). Customized growth curves were a significant predictor of BF% (p = 0.02), whereas population-based growth curves were not a significant independent predictor of BF% (p = 0.50) at term corrected gestational age. Customized growth potential improves the differentiation of SGA infants and low BF% compared with a standard population-based growth curve among a cohort of preterm infants.

  17. Radon and lung cancer in Bangalore Metropolitan, India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathish, L.A.; Nethravathi, K.S.; Ramachandran, T.V.

    2012-01-01

    Radon is a radioactive gas released from the normal decay of 238 U in rocks and soil. It is an invisible, odorless, tasteless gas that seeps up through the ground and diffuses into the air. In a few areas, depending on local geology, radon dissolves into ground water and can be released into the air when the water is used. Radon gas usually exists at very low levels outdoors. However, in areas without adequate ventilation, such as underground mines, radon can accumulate to levels that substantially increase the risk of lung cancer. Radon decays quickly, giving off tiny radioactive particles. When inhaled, these radioactive particles can damage the cells that line the lung. Long-term exposure to radon can lead to lung cancer, the only cancer proven to be associated with inhaling radon. Public interest in radon has been occasionally piqued by articles in the general press. Considerable attention has been given to the high radon levels that were uncovered in the Reading Prong region of Pennsylvania, following the discovery in late 1984 of extremely high levels in one home. Several epidemiological study programmes in different countries are in progress to estimate the population exposures due to natural radiation with a view to obtain the radiation risk coefficients at low dose rate levels. In this regard, radiation surveys in high background areas (HBRAs) can provide excellent settings for epidemiological studies relating to the effects of low doses of radiation. In view of these, a comprehensive estimate of the natural inhalation dose requires both 222 Rn and 220 Rn levels in the indoor atmosphere. In this outlook an attempt is made to investigate the 222 Rn and 220 Rn levels in dwellings of Bangalore Metropolitan, India. Three year results shows that the activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th, radon in ground water, the concentrations 222 Rn and 220 Rn and the dose rate (mSvy -1 ) are at alarming levels for the environment of Bangalore Metropolitan, India. The

  18. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  19. Bone growth, limb proportions and non-specific stress in archaeological populations from Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhasi, R; Timpson, A; Thomas, M; Slaus, M

    2014-01-01

    The effect of environmental factors and, in particular, non-specific stress on the growth patterns of limbs and other body dimensions of children from past populations is not well understood. This study assesses whether growth of mediaeval and post-mediaeval children aged between 0-11.5 years from Adriatic (coastal) and continental Croatia varies by region and by the prevalence and type of non-specific stress. Dental ages were estimated using the Moorrees, Fanning and Hunt (MFH) scoring method. Growth of long bone diaphyses (femur, tibia, humerus, radius and ulna) was assessed by using a composite Z-score statistic (CZS). Clavicular length was measured as a proxy for upper trunk width, distal metaphyseal width of the femur was measured as a proxy for body mass and upper and lower intra-limb indices were calculated. Differences between sub-sets sampled by (a) region and (b) active vs healed non-specific stress indicators and (c) intra-limb indices were tested by Mann--Whitney U-tests and Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). Adriatic children attained larger dimensions-per-age than continental children. Children with healed stress lesions had larger dimensions-per-age than those with active lesions. No inter-regional difference was found in intra-limb indices. These findings highlight the complexity of growth patterns in past populations and indicate that variation in environmental conditions such as diet and differences in the nature of non-specific stress lesions both exert a significant effect on long bone growth.

  20. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  1. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-06-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal.

  2. 23 CFR 420.109 - What are the requirements for distribution of metropolitan planning funds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... and Research Funds § 420.109 What are the requirements for distribution of metropolitan planning funds... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What are the requirements for distribution of metropolitan planning funds? 420.109 Section 420.109 Highways FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF...

  3. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  4. From groundwater baselines to numerical groundwater flow modelling for the Milan metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosta, Giovanni B.; Frattini, Paolo; Peretti, Lidia; Villa, Federica; Gorla, Maurizio

    2015-04-01

    Contamination of major aquifers in highly densely populated areas is a major concern for stakeholders involved in the use and protection of groundwater resources. Sustainable groundwater withdrawal and management, and the identification of trends in groundwater contamination require a careful hydrochemical baseline characterization. This characterization is fundamental to investigate the presence and evolutionary trend of contaminants. In fact, it allows recovering and understanding: the spatial-temporal trend of contamination; the relative age of the contamination episodes; the reasons for anomalous behavior of some compounds during migration to and in the groundwater; the associations with which some contaminants can be found; the different behaviors in phreatic and semi-confined and confined aquifers. To attain such a characterization for the Milan metropolitan area (about 2,500 km2, ca 4.000.000 inhabitants, Lombardy, Italy), we carried out three main activities. (1) Collection of complete and reliable datasets concerning the geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical (over 60,000 chemical analysis since 2003 to 2013) characteristics of the area and of the involved aquifers. This activity was very demanding because the available data are provided by different authorities (Lombardy Region, Provinces, Lombardy Environmental Agency - ARPA Lombardia, public own companies in charge of water system managements) in raw format and with different database standard, which required a large effort of manual verification and harmonization. (2) Completion of a hydrochemical characterization of the metropolitan area aquifers by classical statistical and multivariate statistical analyses, in order to define a baseline both for some major physical chemical characteristics and for the most relevant contaminants. (3) Development of a three dimensional hydrogeological model for the metropolitan area starting from the above listed datasets and existing models. This model will

  5. Debris flows from small catchments of the Ma Ha Tuak Range, metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorn, Ronald I.

    2010-08-01

    Debris flows debauch from tiny but steep mountain catchments throughout metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Urban growth in the past half-decade has led to home construction directly underneath hundreds of debris-flow channels, but debris flows are not recognized as a potential hazard at present. One of the first steps in a hazard assessment is to determine occurrence rates. The north flank of the Ma Ha Tuak Range, just 10 km from downtown Phoenix, was selected to determine the feasibility of using the varnish microlaminations (VML) method to date every debris-flow levee from 127 catchment areas. Only 152 of the 780 debris-flow levees yielded VML ages in a first round of sampling; this high failure rate is due to erosion of VML by microcolonial fungi. The temporal pattern of preserved debris-flow levees indicates anomalously high production of debris flows at about 8.1 ka and about 2.8 ka, corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climatic anomalies. Because many prior debris flows are obliterated by newer events, the minimum overall occurrence rates of 1.3 debris flows per century for the last 60 ka, 2.2 flows/century for the latest Pleistocene, and 5 flows/century for the last 8.1 ka has little meaning in assessment of a contemporary hazard. This is because newer debris flows have obliterated an unknown number of past deposits. More meaningful to a hazards analysis is the estimate that 56 flows have occurred in the last 100 years on the north side of the range, an estimate that is consistent with direct observations of three small debris flows resulting events from a January 18-22, 2010 storm producing 70 mm of precipitation in the Ma Ha Tuak Range, and a 500 m long debris flow in a northern metropolitan Phoenix location that received over 150 mm of precipitation in this same storm. These findings support the need for a more extensive hazard assessment of debris flows in metropolitan Phoenix.

  6. Heterogeneous Structure and Seismicity beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, S.; Kato, A.; Sakai, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Kurashimo, E.; Obara, K.; Kasahara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Hirata, N.

    2010-12-01

    Beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) subducts and causes damaged mega-thrust earthquakes. Sato et al. (2005) revealed the geometry of upper surface of PSP, and Hagiwara et al. (2006) estimated the velocity structure beneath Boso peninsula. However, these results are not sufficient for the assessment of the entire picture of the seismic hazards beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area including those due to an intra-slab M7+ earthquake. So, we launched the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area (Hirata et al., 2009). Proving the more detailed geometry and physical properties (e.g. velocities, densities, attenuation) and stress field within PSP is very important to attain this issue. The core item of this project is a dense seismic array called Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) for making observations in the metropolitan area (Sakai and Hirata, 2009; Kasahara et al., 2009). We deployed the 249 seismic stations with a spacing of 5 km. Some parts of stations construct 5 linear arrays at interval of 2 km such as Tsukuba-Fujisawa (TF) array, etc. The TF array runs from northeast to southwest through the center of Tokyo. In this study, we applied the tomography method to image the heterogeneous structure under the Tokyo metropolitan area. We selected events from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified earthquake list. All data of MeSO-net were edited into event data by the selected JMA unified earthquake list. We picked the P and S wave arrival times. The total number of stations and events are 421 and 1,256, respectively. Then, we applied the double-difference tomography method (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) to this dataset and estimated the fine-scale velocity structure. The grid nodes locate 10 km interval in parallel with the array, 20 km interval in perpendicular to the array; and on depth direction, 5 km interval to a depth of less than 50 km and 10 km interval at a depth of more

  7. Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelius Okello

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028. The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.

  8. The little women of Loja--growth hormone-receptor deficiency in an inbred population of southern Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbloom, A L; Guevara Aguirre, J; Rosenfeld, R G; Fielder, P J

    1990-11-15

    Laron-type dwarfism, which is characterized by the clinical appearance of isolated growth hormone deficiency with elevated serum levels of growth hormone and decreased serum levels of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), has been described in approximately 50 patients. This condition is caused by a deficiency of the cellular receptor for growth hormone, and it is transmitted as an autosomal recessive trait, as indicated by an equal sex distribution and a high rate of consanguinity in affected families. We studied 20 patients (19 females and 1 male, 2 to 49 years of age), from an inbred Spanish population in southern Ecuador, who had the clinical features of Laron-type dwarfism. Seventeen patients were members of two large pedigrees. Among the 13 affected sibships, there were 19 affected and 24 unaffected female siblings and 1 affected and 21 unaffected male siblings. The patients' heights ranged from 10.0 to 6.7 SD below the normal mean height for age in the United States. In addition to the previously described features, 15 patients had limited elbow extensibility, all had blue scleras, affected adults had relatively short extremities, and all four affected women over 30 years of age had hip degeneration. Basal serum concentrations of growth hormone were elevated in all affected children (30 to 160 micrograms per liter) and normal to moderately elevated in the adults. The serum level of growth hormone-binding protein ranged from 1 to 30 percent of normal; IGF-I concentrations were low--less than or equal to 7 micrograms per liter in the children and less than or equal to 66 micrograms per liter in the adults (normal for Ecuadorean women, 98 to 238). Serum levels of IGF-II and growth hormone-dependent IGF-binding protein-3 were also low. We describe an inbred population with a high incidence of growth hormone-receptor deficiency resulting in a clinical picture resembling Laron-type dwarfism but differing principally in showing a marked predominance of affected

  9. Atmospheric pollution biomonitoring of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region using epiphytic lichens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuga, Alessandra

    2006-01-01

    Due to the increasing problems of atmospheric pollution in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region that affect the environment and human health the application of biomonitoring methodologies using cosmopolite organisms has now become relevant. Biomonitoring is a method to evaluate the response of live organisms to pollution. This method offers advantages such as reduced costs, efficient monitoring of large geographic areas and accumulated pollutants over a large period in which low concentrations of chemicals elements in the environment can be evaluated. In the present study, neutron activation analysis method was applied to determine elements accumulated in Canoparmelia texana lichenized fungi. Samples were collected in two distinct areas: Carlos Botelho (PECB) and Intervales (PEI) State Parks that are considered as non-polluted areas and that belong to the Atlantic Forest - SP ecosystem; and Sao Paulo city metropolitan region in sites near automatic monitoring stations of the Environmental Protection Agency of the State of Sao Paulo (CETESB). The lichens collected from the bark of the trees were properly treated, and irradiated with neutrons from IEA-R1 nuclear reactor along with synthetic standards of elements. The precision and the accuracy of the results were evaluated by the analyses of IAEA-336 LICHEN and Mixed Polish Herbs (INCT -MPH-2) certified reference materials. The results obtained for these materials were in accordance with the certified values and presented good precision with variation coefficients ranging from 0.9 to 14.6%. Results obtained for lichens showed that elements As, Co, Cr, Cs, La, Mo, Sb, Sc, Se and U are present at ng g -1 levels, Ba, Br, Cl, Fe, K, Mn, Na, Rb and Zn at μg g -1 and Ca at mg g -1 . By applying cluster and discriminant analyses to the results for the lichen samples from areas with different levels of pollution, the sampling sites were grouped according to their chemical similarities and their elemental composition. It was

  10. Fetal growth trajectory and risk for eczema in a Saudi population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlMakoshi, Amel; Ellahi, Awaiss; Sallout, Bala; Devereux, Graham; Turner, Steve

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies in Western cohorts have identified associations between increasing fetal abdominal circumference (AC) during mid-pregnancy and increased risk for eczema and atopy. We sought to replicate these findings in a Saudi population where antenatal environmental exposures are different compared with Western countries. A Saudi birth cohort was recruited to relate maternal dietary intake and fetal growth to wheeze, eczema, and rhinitis in the first 2 yrs. Fetal size was determined from routine ultrasound scan measurements in the second and third trimesters and birthweight was noted. Parent-reported outcomes during the first 2 yrs were acquired by telephone-administered questionnaire. There were 1076 mothers recruited. AC was determined in 562 for the second, in 632 for the third, and in 281 for both second and third trimesters. A history of eczema was determined in 814 children at 2 yrs of age. There was an inverse relationship between change in abdominal circumference between the second and third trimesters for eczema (OR 0.66 per z score increase in AC [95% CI 0.49, 0.89]), and the quartile with the greatest faltering growth were at increased risk compared with other groups (p ≤ 0.045). Change in fetal size between the third trimester and birth was not associated with altered eczema risk. There were no associations between fetal growth and wheeze at the age of 2 yrs. Our findings contrast observations made in Western populations but nonetheless suggest that factors associated with changing fetal growth trajectory in the second half of pregnancy are also relevant to atopy development on the global setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Metropolitan social environments and pre-HAART/HAART era changes in mortality rates (per 10,000 adult residents among injection drug users living with AIDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel R Friedman

    Full Text Available Among the largest US metropolitan areas, trends in mortality rates for injection drug users (IDUs with AIDS vary substantially. Ecosocial, risk environment and dialectical theories suggest many metropolitan areas characteristics that might drive this variation. We assess metropolitan area characteristics associated with decline in mortality rates among IDUs living with AIDS (per 10,000 adult MSA residents after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART was developed.This is an ecological cohort study of 86 large US metropolitan areas from 1993-2006. The proportional rate of decline in mortality among IDUs diagnosed with AIDS (as a proportion of adult residents from 1993-1995 to 2004-2006 was the outcome of interest. This rate of decline was modeled as a function of MSA-level variables suggested by ecosocial, risk environment and dialectical theories. In multiple regression analyses, we used 1993-1995 mortality rates to (partially control for pre-HAART epidemic history and study how other independent variables affected the outcomes.In multivariable models, pre-HAART to HAART era increases in 'hard drug' arrest rates and higher pre-HAART income inequality were associated with lower relative declines in mortality rates. Pre-HAART per capita health expenditure and drug abuse treatment rates, and pre- to HAART-era increases in HIV counseling and testing rates, were weakly associated with greater decline in AIDS mortality.Mortality among IDUs living with AIDS might be decreased by reducing metropolitan income inequality, increasing public health expenditures, and perhaps increasing drug abuse treatment and HIV testing services. Given prior evidence that drug-related arrest rates are associated with higher HIV prevalence rates among IDUs and do not seem to decrease IDU population prevalence, changes in laws and policing practices to reduce such arrests while still protecting public order should be considered.

  12. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  13. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  14. California's minimum-nurse-staffing legislation and nurses' wages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Barbara; Harless, David W; Spetz, Joanne

    2009-01-01

    In 2004, California became the first state to implement minimum-nurse-staffing ratios in acute care hospitals. We examined the wages of registered nurses (RNs) before and after the legislation was enacted. Using four data sets-the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses, the Current Population Survey, the National Compensation Survey, and the Occupational Employment Statistics Survey-we found that from 2000 through 2006, RNs in California metropolitan areas experienced real wage growth as much as twelve percentage points higher than the growth in the wages of nurses employed in metropolitan areas outside of California.

  15. Hypersomnolence and Sleep-related Complaints in Metropolitan, Urban, and Rural Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Michael J.; Lin, Jin-Mann S.; Tabassum, Humyra

    2009-01-01

    Persistent daytime hypersomnolence is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, but its prevalence in the population has been poorly documented. This study sought to characterize the prevalence of persistent daytime hypersomnolence, difficulties initiating and maintaining sleep, unrefreshing sleep, snoring, and the presence of physician-diagnosed sleep disorders in metropolitan, urban, and rural US Georgia populations. Between September 2004 and July 2005, a total of 6,530 randomly selected well and unwell adults, identified by screening interviews of 10,837 households (contacted by random digit dialing), completed a detailed phone interview. Sixteen percent reported persistent problems staying awake during the day; 26% reported persistent problems falling asleep at night; 31% experienced problems sleeping through the night; 34% were bothered by unrefreshing sleep; and 33% reported that they snored. In spite of the high occurrence of reported persistent sleep problems, only 10% of the survey participants reported having been diagnosed with a sleep disorder. These study findings highlight the need for increased public and clinician awareness with respect to proactively indentifying signs and symptoms of sleep disorders, a better understanding of their adverse impact upon morbidity and mortality, and their negative impact upon socioeconomic and academic potential. PMID:19066308

  16. Governing metropolitan green infrastructure in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Young; E. Gregory McPherson

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we explore whether the enhancement of urban ecosystem services through largescale metropolitan treeplanting initiatives is being planned and executed as a component of traditional municipal government or represents new transdisciplinary strategies in environmental governance Drawing on qualitative interviews with...

  17. REGIONAL COMPONENTS OF GROWTH THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION (FOR EXAMPLE, VORONEZH REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Serebryakova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of economy there is a transformation of main objectives of the state from ensuring growth of welfare of citizens to ensuring continuous growth of quality of life. Ensuring growth of quality of life of the population is carried out not only on state, but also on regional levels. At the state level key tasks are formed, the state assumes a considerable share of functions on achievement of the designated purpose. In the real research the attention to consideration of the program documents directed on improvement of quality of life of the population on the example of the Voronezh region is paid. The program documents of a social orientation existing in the region are for this purpose studied. It is revealed that in the region a number of the programs and subprogrammes aimed at improvement of a demographic situation, improvement of a regional budgetary and tax policy, social support of citizens in general works. As tools which use regional authorities, are noted: social standards, address social help, social contracts. It is established that introduction of system of social contracts allows to save budget funds and, at the same time, to motivate the persons which are in a difficult life situation on change of the situation to the best, joint efforts with social security authorities. It is noted that as the leading principles of rendering the social help paramount value has detailed definition of degree of need of the help and a condition of granting. The last often generate dependant moods which are important for leveling, using levers of social interaction. The analysis of the contents of the realized programs for improvement of quality of life of the population allowed to reveal advantages and defects in these programs, and also to define reserves of growth of quality of life. So, it is specified that program documents of regional level in the prevailing majority have a narrow focus on ensuring the help and

  18. Does pollen limitation affect population growth of the endangered Dracocephalum austriacum L.?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Castro, Sílvia; Dostálek, Tomáš; van der Meer, S.; Oostermeijer, G.; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 1 (2015), s. 105-116 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP13-10850P; GA ČR GAP505/10/0593 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Dracocephalum austriacum * pollination ecology * population growth rate Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.698, year: 2015

  19. Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

    2015-02-01

    Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

  20. A study of trace element concentrations in human hair of some local populations in Japan. I. Inhabitants of the Tokyo metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imahori, A.; Fukushima, I.; Shiobara, S.; Terai, M.

    1979-01-01

    By applying instrumental neutron activation analysis techniques, a survey was carried out to determine the levels of a variety of trace element concentrations in human hair of the inhabitants of the Tokyo metropolitan area. A total of 202 scalp hair samples were collected from the inhabitants of the residential district in the western part of the Tokyo metropolitan area. The donors were divided into five age groups, ranging from pre-school age to sixty years and above. Each group consisted of twenty males and twenty or more females. The sampling method and washing procedure recommended by the IAEA Advisory Group on the applications of nuclear methods in environmental research were strictly followed. Irradiation of the samples was made in the Rikkyo University 100-kW TRIGA MARK II reactor. By using several combinations of irradiation time, cooling time and counting time, the following 37 elements were quantitatively analysed: Ag, Al, As, Au, Ba, Br, Ca, Cd, Ce, Cl, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, Rb, S, Sb, Sc, Se, Sm, Sn, Te, Ti, U, V, W and Zn. NBS standard reference orchard leaves and bovine liver were also analysed in the course of the hair analysis to assess the precision of the analytical techniques. (author)