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Sample records for methotrexate forecasts outcome

  1. Methotrexate

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... lymphoma, and leukemia (cancer that begins in the white blood cells). Methotrexate is in a class of ... In case of overdose, call the poison control helpline at 1-800-222-1222. Information is also available online at https://www.poisonhelp.org/help. If the victim has ...

  2. Birth outcomes after preconception paternal exposure to methotrexate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winter, Rachel W; Larsen, Michael Due; Magnussen, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Methotrexate (MTX), a folic acid antagonist, is often prescribed for moderate to severe inflammatory related diseases. The safety of paternal MTX use prior to conception is unknown. This study, using the National Danish Registries, aimed to examine the association between paternal MTX...

  3. The Influence of Methotrexate Treatment on Male Fertility and Pregnancy Outcome After Paternal Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosen, Anne; Kelsen, Jens; Hvas, Christian Lodberg; Bellaguarda, Emanuelle; Hanauer, Stephen B

    2017-04-01

    Inflammatory bowel disease incidence peaks during the reproductive years. Methotrexate (MTX) is frequently used for inflammatory bowel disease, but its use during pregnancy is contraindicated in women because of teratogenic effects. The aim of this review is to investigate the influence of MTX on male fertility and pregnancy outcomes after paternal MTX exposure. A systematic literature search was performed by applying 2 focus areas, "methotrexate" and "male fertility or pregnancy outcome." Terms and keywords were used both as MeSH terms and free-text searches. Pertinent articles were searched for additional relevant references. In animal studies, MTX induces aberrations in sperm DNA that have not been identified in humans. The effects of MTX on human sperm quality have only been described in case reports. A transient adverse effect on sperm quality with low-dose MTX has been reported, but several other cases have not found harmful effects of MTX. MTX has not been measured in human sperm ejaculates; yet, the risk of a direct toxic effect on the fetus through MTX-contaminated seminal plasma seems negligible. Until now, 284 pregnancies with paternal MTX exposure have been reported. The outcomes were 248 live births and a total of 13 malformations, with no overt indication of MTX embryopathy. This review reveals the lack of studies on the safety of MTX with regard to male reproduction. It is not clear whether MTX transiently influences male fertility and sperm DNA integrity, and more studies are needed. Comparative cohort studies found no increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

  4. [Combined forecasting system of peritonitis outcome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedev, N V; Klimov, A E; Agrba, S B; Gaidukevich, E K

    To create a reliable system for assessing of severity and prediction of the outcome of peritonitis. Critical analysis of the systems for peritonitis severity assessment is presented. The study included outcomes of 347 patients who admitted at the Department of Faculty Surgery of Peoples' Friendship University of Russia in 2015-2016. The cause of peritonitis were destructive forms of acute appendicitis, cholecystitis, perforated gastroduodenal ulcer, various perforation of small and large intestines (including tumor). Combined forecasting system for peritonitis severity assessment is created. The system includes clinical, laboratory data, assessment of systemic inflammatory response (SIRS) and severity of organ failure (qSOFA). The authors focused on easily identifiable parameters which are available in virtually any surgical hospital. Threshold value (lethal outcome probability over 50%) is 8 scores in this system. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 93.3, 99.7 and 98.9%, respectively according to ROC-curve that exceeds those parameters of MPI and APACHE II.

  5. Methotrexate resistance in relation to treatment outcome in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wojtuszkiewicz, Anna; Peters, Godefridus J; van Woerden, Nicole L

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Methotrexate (MTX) eradicates leukemic cells by disrupting de novo nucleotide biosynthesis and DNA replication, resulting in cell death. Since its introduction in 1947, MTX-containing chemotherapeutic regimens have proven instrumental in achieving curative effects in acute lymphoblast...... resistant to MTX at diagnosis may allow for tailoring novel treatment strategies to individual leukemia patients....... leukemia (ALL). However, drug resistance phenomena pose major obstacles to efficacious ALL chemotherapy. Moreover, clinically relevant molecular mechanisms underlying chemoresistance remain largely obscure. Several alterations in MTX metabolism, leading to impaired accumulation of this cytotoxic agent...... in tumor cells, have been classified as determinants of MTX resistance. However, the relation between MTX resistance and long-term clinical outcome of ALL has not been shown previously. METHODS: We have collected clinical data for 235 childhood ALL patients, for whom samples taken at the time of diagnosis...

  6. Role of Key TYMS Polymorphisms on Methotrexate Therapeutic Outcome in Portuguese Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Aurea; Seabra, Vítor; Bernardes, Miguel; Azevedo, Rita; Sousa, Hugo; Medeiros, Rui

    2014-01-01

    Background Therapeutic outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients treated with methotrexate (MTX) can be modulated by thymidylate synthase (TS) levels, which may be altered by genetic polymorphisms in TS gene (TYMS). This study aims to elucidate the influence of TYMS polymorphisms in MTX therapeutic outcome (regarding both clinical response and toxicity) in Portuguese RA patients. Methods Clinicopathological data from 233 Caucasian RA patients treated with MTX were collected, outcomes were defined and patients were genotyped for the following TYMS polymorphisms: 1) 28 base pairs (bp) variable number tandem repeat (rs34743033); 2) single nucleotide polymorphism C>G (rs2853542); and 3) 6 bp sequence deletion (1494del6, rs34489327). Chi-square and binary logistic regression analyses were performed, using genotype and haplotype-based approaches. Results Considering TYMS genotypes, 3R3R (p = 0.005, OR = 2.34), 3RC3RG (p = 0.016, OR = 3.52) and 6bp− carriers (p = 0.011, OR = 1.96) were associated with non-response to MTX. Multivariate analysis confirmed the increased risk for non-response to MTX in 6bp− carriers (p = 0.016, OR = 2.74). Data demonstrated that TYMS polymorphisms were in linkage disequilibrium (p<0.00001). Haplotype multivariate analysis revealed that haplotypes harboring both 3R and 6bp− alleles were associated with non-response to MTX. Regarding MTX-related toxicity, no statistically significant differences were observed in relation to TYMS genotypes and haplotypes. Conclusion Our study reveals that TYMS polymorphisms could be important to help predicting clinical response to MTX in RA patients. Despite the potential of these findings, translation into clinical practice needs larger studies to confirm these evidences. PMID:25279663

  7. Methotrexate Dosage Reduction Upon Adalimumab Initiation: Clinical and Ultrasonographic Outcomes from the Randomized Noninferiority MUSICA Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaeley, Gurjit S; Evangelisto, Amy M; Nishio, Midori J; Goss, Sandra L; Liu, Shufang; Kalabic, Jasmina; Kupper, Hartmut

    2016-08-01

    To examine the clinical and ultrasonographic (US) outcomes of reducing methotrexate (MTX) dosage upon initiating adalimumab (ADA) in MTX-inadequate responders with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). MUSICA (NCT01185288) was a double-blind, randomized, parallel-arm study of 309 patients with RA receiving MTX ≥ 15 mg/week for ≥ 12 weeks before screening. Patients were randomized to high dosage (20 mg/week) or low dosage (7.5 mg/week) MTX; all patients received 40 mg open-label ADA every other week for 24 weeks. The primary endpoint was Week 24 mean 28-joint Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) to test for noninferiority of low-dosage MTX using a 15% margin. US images were scored using a 10-joint semiquantitative system incorporating OMERACT definitions for pathology, assessing synovial hypertrophy, vascularity, and bony erosions. Rapid improvement in clinical indices was observed in both groups after addition of ADA. The difference in mean DAS28-CRP (0.37, 95% CI 0.07-0.66) comparing low-dosage (4.12, 95% CI 3.88-4.34) versus high-dosage MTX (3.75, 95% CI 3.52-3.97) was statistically significant and non-inferiority was not met. Statistically significant differences were not detected for most clinical, functional, and US outcomes. Pharmacokinetic and safety profiles were similar. In MUSICA, Week 24 mean DAS28-CRP, the primary endpoint, did not meet non-inferiority for the low-dosage MTX group. Although the differences between the 2 MTX dosage groups were small, our study findings did not support routine MTX reduction in MTX inadequate responders initiating ADA.

  8. Risk of Adverse Pregnancy Outcome After Paternal Exposure to Methotrexate Within 90 Days Before Pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eck, Lasse Karlsen; Jensen, Thomas Bo; Mastrogiannis, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the association between paternal exposure to methotrexate within the 90-day period before pregnancy and congenital malformations and stillbirth in the offspring. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide register study. Our cohort consisted of all live births in Denmark between 1997...... group and no increased risk of preterm birth (adjusted OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.66-2.59) among the children from exposed fathers. CONCLUSION: We found no association between paternal exposure to methotrexate within 90 days before pregnancy and congenital malformations, stillbirths, or preterm birth. Available...

  9. The impact of in situ methotrexate injection after transvaginal ultrasound-guided aspiration of ovarian endometriomas on ovarian response and reproductive outcomes during IVF-cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.E. Shawki

    2012-06-01

    Conclusion(s: In situ methotrexate injection after transvaginal ultrasound-guided aspiration was a simple, safe and successful method for treating ovarian endometriomas with minimal effects on ovarian response. Short term effects on reproductive outcomes, risk of fetal loss or anomaly were minimal. Six months was enough as washout period of the drug prior to conception and was advisable to prevent the small chance of chromosomal abnormalities in the offspring.

  10. Methotrexate osteopathy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, A.M.; Leonidas, J.C.

    1984-01-01

    Methotrexate osteopathy is an uncommon complication of long-term oral maintenance therapy for childhood neoplasms, most commonly acute lymphocytic leukemia. It is characterized by severe lower extremity pain and by osteoporosis particularly involving the lower extremities and thick dense provisional zones of calcification and growth arrest lines resembling scurvy. Fractures may occur. The appearance must be distinguished from recurrent or metastatic disease.

  11. Methotrexate osteopathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, A.M.; Leonidas, J.C.; Tufts Univ., Boston, MA

    1984-01-01

    Methotrexate osteopathy is an uncommon complication of long-term oral maintenance therapy for childhood neoplasms, most commonly acute lymphocytic leukemia. It is characterized by severe lower extremity pain and by osteoporosis particularly involving the lower extremities and thick dense provisional zones of calcification and growth arrest lines resembling scurvy. Fractures may occur. The appearance must be distinguished from recurrent or metastatic disease. (orig.)

  12. Forecasting patient outcomes in the management of hyperlipidemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brier, K L; Tornow, J J; Ries, A J; Weber, M P; Downs, J R

    1999-03-22

    To forecast adult patient outcomes in the management of hyperlipidemia using adult National Health and Examination Survey III (NHANES III) population statistics and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) guidelines for goals of therapy. Review of the hyperlipidemia drug therapy English-language medical literature with emphasis on randomized controlled trials of more than 6 weeks' duration published in the last 7 years, product package inserts, US Food and Drug Administration submission information, and NHANES III population statistics. Data were extracted from studies of lipid-lowering therapy to modify low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels for primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. The data that were evaluated included sample size, study design, therapeutic intervention, length of study, percentage change in LDL levels, and patient demographics. Cumulative frequency curves of the LDL distribution among the US adult population were constructed. The mean efficacy of drug therapy from qualified studies was used to extrapolate the percentage of the population expected to respond to the intervention and to forecast the patient outcome. A useful tool for clinicians was constructed to approximate the percentage of patients, based on risk stratification, who would reach NCEP target goal after a given pharmacotherapeutic intervention to decrease LDL levels.

  13. Methotrexate for ocular inflammatory diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangaputra, Sapna; Newcomb, Craig W; Liesegang, Teresa L; Kaçmaz, R Oktay; Jabs, Douglas A; Levy-Clarke, Grace A; Nussenblatt, Robert B; Rosenbaum, James T; Suhler, Eric B; Thorne, Jennifer E; Foster, C Stephen; Kempen, John H

    2009-11-01

    To evaluate the outcome of treatment with methotrexate for noninfectious ocular inflammation. Retrospective cohort study. Patients with noninfectious ocular inflammation managed at 4 tertiary ocular inflammation clinics in the United States observed to add methotrexate as a single, noncorticosteroid immunosuppressive agent to their treatment regimen, between 1979 and 2007, inclusive. Participants were identified from the Systemic Immunosuppressive Therapy for Eye Diseases Cohort Study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, including dosage, route of administration of methotrexate, and main outcome measures, were obtained for every eye of every patient at every visit via medical record review by trained expert reviewers. Control of inflammation, corticosteroid-sparing effects, and incidence of and reason for discontinuation of therapy. Among 384 patients (639 eyes) observed from the point of addition of methotrexate to an anti-inflammatory regimen, 32.8%, 9.9%, 21.4%, 14.6%, 15.1%, and 6.3%, respectively, had anterior uveitis, intermediate uveitis, posterior or panuveitis, scleritis, ocular mucous membrane pemphigoid, and other forms of ocular inflammation. In these groups, complete suppression of inflammation sustained for >or=28 days was achieved within 6 months in 55.6%, 47.4%, 38.6%, 56.4%, 39.5%, and 76.7%, respectively. Corticosteroid-sparing success (sustained suppression of inflammation with prednisone Methotrexate was discontinued within 1 year by 42% of patients. It was discontinued owing to ineffectiveness in 50 patients (13%); 60 patients (16%) discontinued because of side effects, which typically were reversible with dose reduction or discontinuation. Remission was seen in 43 patients, with 7.7% remitting within 1 year of treatment. Our data suggest that adding methotrexate to an anti-inflammatory regimen not involving other noncorticosteroid immunosuppressive drugs is moderately effective for management of inflammatory activity and for achieving

  14. Clinical and radiographic outcome of a treat-to-target strategy using methotrexate and intra-articular glucocorticoids with or without adalimumab induction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hørslev-Petersen, K; Hetland, M L; Ørnbjerg, L M

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To study clinical and radiographic outcomes after withdrawing 1 year's adalimumab induction therapy for early rheumatoid arthritis (eRA) added to a methotrexate and intra-articular triamcinolone hexacetonide treat-to-target strategy (NCT00660647). METHODS: Disease-modifying antirheuma......OBJECTIVES: To study clinical and radiographic outcomes after withdrawing 1 year's adalimumab induction therapy for early rheumatoid arthritis (eRA) added to a methotrexate and intra-articular triamcinolone hexacetonide treat-to-target strategy (NCT00660647). METHODS: Disease.......12). Erosive progression (Δerosion score (ES)/year) was year 1:0.57/0.06 (p=0.02); year 2:0.38/0.05 (p=0.005). Proportion of patients without erosive progression (ΔES≤0) was year 1: 59%/76% (p=0.03); year 2:64%/79% (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: An aggressive triamcinolone and synthetic DMARD treat-to-target strategy...... was (re)initiated in 12/12 patients and cumulative triamcinolone dose was 160/120 mg (p=0.15). The treatment target (disease activity score, 4 variables, C-reactive protein (DAS28CRP) ≤3.2 or DAS28>3.2 without swollen joints) was achieved at all visits in ≥85% of patients in year 2; remission rates were...

  15. Infliximab plus methotrexate is superior to methotrexate alone in the treatment of psoriatic arthritis in methotrexate-naive patients: the RESPOND study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranauskaite, Asta; Raffayová, Helena; Kungurov, N V; Kubanova, Anna; Venalis, Algirdas; Helmle, Laszlo; Srinivasan, Shankar; Nasonov, Evgeny; Vastesaeger, Nathan

    2012-04-01

    To compare the efficacy and safety of treatment with infliximab plus methotrexate with methotrexate alone in methotrexate-naive patients with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA). In this open-label study, patients 18 years and older with active PsA who were naive to methotrexate and not receiving disease-modifying therapy (N=115) were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either infliximab (5 mg/kg) at weeks 0, 2, 6 and 14 plus methotrexate (15 mg/week); or methotrexate (15 mg/week) alone. The primary assessment was American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 response at week 16. Secondary outcome measures included psoriasis area and severity index (PASI), disease activity score in 28 joints (DAS28) and dactylitis and enthesitis assessments. At week 16, 86.3% of patients receiving infliximab plus methotrexate and 66.7% of those receiving methotrexate alone achieved an ACR20 response (palone experienced a 75% or greater improvement in PASI (palone group. Treatment with infliximab plus methotrexate in methotrexate-naive patients with active PsA demonstrated significantly greater ACR20 response rates and PASI75 improvement compared with methotrexate alone and was generally well tolerated. This trial is registered in the US National Institutes of Health clinicaltrials.gov database, identifier NCT00367237.

  16. Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K

    2017-05-01

    Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than experiencers, the outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact. When specifications are positively correlated with the hedonic impact of an event, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which high specification values will intensify and low specification values will discount its impact. When outcome specifications are negatively correlated with its hedonic impact, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which low specification values will intensify and high specification values will discount its impact. These affective forecasting errors compound additively when multiple specifications are aligned in their impact: In Experiment 1, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of winning a smaller prize that they expected to win, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of winning a larger prize that they did not expect to win. In Experiment 2, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of a short unpleasant video about a temporally distant event, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of a long unpleasant video about a temporally near event. Experiments 3A and 3B showed that differences in the affect-richness of forecasted and experienced events underlie these differences in sensitivity to outcome specifications, therefore accounting for both the impact bias and its reversal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Impact of Public Aggregate Wind Forecasts on Electricity Market Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Following a call to foster a transparent and more competitive market, member states of the European transmission system operator are required to publish, among other information, aggregate wind power forecasts. The publication of the latter information is expected to benefit market participants...... by offering better knowledge of the market operation, leading subsequently to a more competitive energy market. Driven by the above regulation, we consider an equilibrium study to address how public information of aggregate wind power forecasts can potentially affect market results, social welfare as well...... as the profits of participating power producers. We investigate, therefore, a joint day-ahead energy and reserve auction, where producers offer their conventional power strategically based on a complementarity approach and their wind power at generation cost based on a forecast. In parallel, an iterative game...

  18. Superior outcome using cyclosporin A alone versus cyclosporin A plus methotrexate for post-transplant immunosuppression in children with acute leukemia undergoing sibling hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Melissa; Steinbach, Daniel; Zintl, Felix; Beck, James; Gruhn, Bernd

    2015-06-01

    The outcome of cyclosporin A (CSA) alone (n = 19) as graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis was compared to that of CSA combined with methotrexate (MTX) (n = 43) in children with acute leukemia who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. All respective donors were HLA-identical siblings. All patients received CSA at a dose of 3 mg/kg/day starting on day -1. A CSA level of 80-130 ng/ml was aimed for. The 43 patients in the historical control were given an additional 10 mg/m(2) dosage of MTX on days 1, 3, 6, and 11. Patients who received CSA alone had a significantly reduced cumulative incidence of relapse (5 vs. 40 %; p = 0.002), a significantly increased 5-year event-free survival (84 vs. 35 %; p = 0.001), and a significantly increased 5-year overall survival (84 vs. 42 %; p = 0.004). The incidence of acute GVHD grade II-IV and chronic GVHD in patients in the CSA group was equivalent to the CSA+MTX group (26 vs. 19 %; p = 0.440, and 32 vs. 23 %; p = 0.428). In conclusion, post-transplant immunosuppression consisting of CSA alone is well tolerated and may contribute to a superior outcome.

  19. Early medical abortion with methotrexate and misoprostol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgatta, L; Burnhill, M S; Tyson, J; Leonhardt, K K; Hausknecht, R U; Haskell, S

    2001-01-01

    To evaluate the introduction of an early medical abortion program with methotrexate and misoprostol, using a standardized protocol. A total of 1973 women at 34 Planned Parenthood sites participated in a case series of early medical abortion. Ultrasound was used to confirm gestational age of less than 49 days from the first day of the last menstrual period. Women were given intramuscular methotrexate 50 mg/m(2) of body surface area on day 1, and then they inserted misoprostol 800 microg vaginally at home on day 5, 6, or 7. Women were advised to have a suction curettage if the pregnancy appeared viable 2 weeks after methotrexate or if any gestational sac persisted 4 weeks after methotrexate. Outcomes were complete medical abortion and suction curettage. Sixteen hundred fifty-nine women (84.1%) had a complete medical abortion, and 257 (13.0%) had suction curettage. The most common reason for curettage was patient option (8.9%). At 2 weeks after methotrexate use, 1.4% of women had curettage because of a viable pregnancy; at 4 weeks, 1.6% of women had curettage because of a persistent but nonviable pregnancy. One percent of women had curettage because of physician recommendation, most commonly for bleeding. Suction curettage rates decreased with site experience (P <.006) and were lower at early gestational ages (P <.004) and in nulliparous women (P <.004). Medical abortion with methotrexate and misoprostol is safe and effective and can be offered in a community setting.

  20. Similar Improvements in Patient-Reported Outcomes Among Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients Treated with Two Different Doses of Methotrexate in Combination with Adalimumab: Results From the MUSICA Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaeley, Gurjit S; MacCarter, Daryl K; Goyal, Janak R; Liu, Shufang; Chen, Kun; Griffith, Jennifer; Kupper, Hartmut; Garg, Vishvas; Kalabic, Jasmina

    2018-06-01

    In patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), combination treatment with methotrexate (MTX) and adalimumab is more effective than MTX monotherapy. From the patients' perspective, the impact of reduced MTX doses upon initiating adalimumab is not known. The objective was to evaluate the effects of low and high MTX doses in combination with adalimumab initiation on patient-reported outcomes (PROs), in MTX-inadequate responders (MTX-IR) with moderate-to-severe RA. MUSICA was a randomized, double-blind, controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of 7.5 or 20 mg/week MTX, in combination with adalimumab for 24 weeks in MTX-IR RA patients receiving prior MTX ≥ 15 mg/week for ≥ 12 weeks. PROs were recorded at each visit, including physical function, health-related quality-of-life, work productivity, quality-of-sleep, satisfaction with treatment medication, sexual impairment due to RA, patient global assessment of disease activity (PGA), and patient pain. Last observation carried forward was used to account for missing values. At baseline, patients in both MTX dosage groups had similar demographics, disease characteristics, and PRO scores. Overall, initiation of adalimumab led to significant improvements from baseline in the PROs assessed for both MTX dosage groups. Improvements in presenteeism from baseline were strongly correlated with corresponding improvements in SF-36 (vitality), pain, and physical function. Physical and mental well-being had a good correlation with improvement in sleep. Overall, improvements in disease activity from baseline were correlated with improvements in several PROs. The addition of adalimumab to MTX in MTX-IR patients with moderate-to-severe RA led to improvements in physical function, quality-of-life, work productivity, quality of sleep, satisfaction with treatment medication, and sexual impairment due to RA, regardless of the concomitant MTX dosage. AbbVie. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT01185288.

  1. Improved outcome from substituting methotrexate with epirubicin: results from a randomised comparison of CMF versus CEF in patients with primary breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejlertsen, Bent Laursen; Mouridsen, Henning T; Jensen, Maj-Britt

    2007-01-01

    We compared the efficacy of CEF (cyclophosphamide, epirubicin, and fluorouracil) against CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil) in moderate or high risk breast cancer patients. We randomly assigned 1224 patients with completely resected unilateral breast cancer to receive nine...... breast cancer without subsequent increase in late toxicities...

  2. Methotrexate and Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... increased risk for infertility, not birth defects. Low sperm count has been seen in some men using methotrexate. Most of these men were using high doses of the medication, as well as other medications used to treat cancer. Sperm levels returned to normal after the men stopped ...

  3. Methotrexate for primary biliary cirrhosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giljaca, Vanja; Poropat, Goran; Stimac, Davor

    2010-01-01

    Methotrexate has been used to treat patients with primary biliary cirrhosis as it possesses immunosuppressive properties. The previously prepared version of this review from 2005 showed that methotrexate seemed to significantly increase mortality in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Since...... that last review version, follow-up data of the included trials have been published....

  4. Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Graefe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, expert judgment and quantitative models, the combined PollyVote provided highly accurate predictions for the US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. This research note shows that the PollyVote would have also outperformed vote expectation surveys, which prior research identified as the most accurate individual forecasting method during that time period. Adding vote expectations to the PollyVote would have further increased the accuracy of the combined forecast. Across the last 90 days prior to the six elections, a five-component PollyVote (i.e. including vote expectations would have yielded a mean absolute error of 1.08 percentage points, which is 7% lower than the corresponding error of the original four-component PollyVote. This study thus provides empirical evidence in support of two major findings from forecasting research. First, combining forecasts provides highly accurate predictions, which are difficult to beat for even the most accurate individual forecasting method available. Second, the accuracy of a combined forecast can be improved by adding component forecasts that rely on different data and different methods than the forecasts already included in the combination.

  5. Methotrexate in Alopecia Areata: A Report of Three Cases

    OpenAIRE

    Batalla, Ana; Fl?rez, ?ngeles; Abalde, Teresa; V?zquez-Veiga, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    There are few studies about systemic treatment in severe cases of alopecia areata (AA), especially in the pediatric population. Although there is more experience with systemic corticosteroids, recent reports have suggested methotrexate (MTX) as an alternative treatment, with a relatively good outcome. We describe three cases of AA in children treated with MTX, two of them with successful results.

  6. Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, K. A.; Montz, B.; Carr, R. H.; Maxfield, K.; Ahnert, P.; Shedd, R.; Elliott, J.

    2017-12-01

    When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protect life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. In 2016 and 2017, building on previous research about the use of uncertainty forecast products, and with funding from NOAA's CSTAR program, East Carolina University and Nurture Nature Center (a non-profit organization with a focus on flooding issues, based in Easton, PA) conducted a research project to understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities. These audiences include community residents, emergency managers and water resource managers. The research team held focus groups in Jefferson County, WV and Frederick County, MD, to test a new suite of products from the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). HEFS is an ensemble system that provides short and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 hours to 1 year, showing uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. The goal of the study was to assess the utility of the HEFS products, identify the barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggest modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for residential, emergency managers, and water resource managers. The research team worked with the Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast center to develop a weather scenario as the basis of the focus group discussions, which also included pre and post session surveys. This presentation shares the findings from those focus group discussions and surveys, including recommendations for revisions to

  7. Methotrexate in the treatment of penile carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sklaroff, R B; Yagoda, A

    1980-01-15

    Eight patients with epidermoid carcinoma of the penis received methotrexate, five with high-dose methotrexate, 250--1500 mg/m2 with citrovorum rescue Q 2--4 weeks, and three with low-dose methotrexate, 0.5--3.0 mg/kg weekly. Three (38%) patients achieved a complete or partial remission which persisted for 11, 3 and 2 months, respectively. Methotrexate appears to be an active agent in the treatment of advanced penile cancer.

  8. Paternal use of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine or methotrexate within 3 months before conception and long-term health outcomes in the offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friedman, S; Larsen, M D; Magnussen, B

    2017-01-01

    hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). RESULTS: Outcomes: of children: AZA/6-MP exposure: one with leukemia (0.14%), one with ASD/schizophrenia (0.14%) and three with ADHD (0.41%); MTX exposure: three with ADHD (1.4%). Unexposed: 1710 with malignancies (0.16%), 2107 with ASD/schizophrenia (0.20%), 2799 with ADHD (0...

  9. Outcomes after rheumatoid arthritis patients complete their participation in a long-term observational study with tofacitinib combined with methotrexate: practical and ethical implications in vulnerable populations after tofacitinib discontinuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Román, Diana I; Ortiz-Haro, Ana B; Ruiz-Medrano, Emmanuel; Contreras-Yáñez, Irazú; Pascual-Ramos, Virginia

    2018-04-01

    To describe disease activity and disability during the first year of follow-up, from rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who discontinue tofacitinib after they end participation in a clinical trial. From 2008 to 2016, 36 patients were enrolled in the "Long term follow-up study with tofacitinib (and methotrexate) for RA treatment". At the end of the study, tofacitinib was discontinued and patients were proposed to enter an observational study; 35 agree and had scheduled evaluations at baseline, at 15 and 30 days of follow-up, at month 2 and 3, and thereafter every 3 months. Disease activity was evaluated as per DAS28-ESR and disability as per HAQ. During follow-up, treatment was treat-to-target oriented, only conventional DMARDs were indicated. Descriptive statistics and nonparametric test were used. The study was approved by IRB. Patients were primarily females (N = 34), had median (Q25-75) age of 52 years (45-58), and had received tofacitinib for a median of 7.9 years (6.3-8.3). The proportion of patients with remission and low disease activity decreased from day 30 of follow-up and recovered after 270 days, meanwhile patients with high disease activity increased from 0% at baseline to 6.3% at 1 year. At study entry, 20 patients had remission/low disease activity; during follow-up, 85% deteriorated after (median) 30 days; among them, 23.5% recovered their baseline status after a median of 172.5 days. The HAQ showed a similar behavior, but 66.7% recovered. A substantial proportion of RA patients deteriorated outcomes early after tofacitinib cessation; some patients recovered baseline status with traditional DMARDS.

  10. Pharmacogenetic markers to predict the clinical response to methotrexate in south Indian Tamil patients with psoriasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indhumathi, S; Rajappa, Medha; Chandrashekar, Laxmisha; Ananthanarayanan, P H; Thappa, D M; Negi, V S

    2017-08-01

    Despite the advent of several new systemic therapies, methotrexate remains the gold standard for the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis. However, there exists a significant heterogeneity in individual response to methotrexate. There are no consistently reliable markers to predict methotrexate treatment response till date. We aimed to demonstrate the association of certain genetic variants in the HLA (HLA-A2, HLA-B17, and HLA-Cw6) and the non-HLA genes including T-helper (Th)-1, Th-2, Th-17 cytokine genes (IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, IL-12B, and IL-23R), and T-regulatory gene (FOXP3) with the methotrexate treatment response in South Indian Tamil patients with psoriasis. Of the 360 patients recruited, 189 patients with moderate to severe psoriasis were treated with methotrexate. Of the 189 patients, 132 patients responded to methotrexate and the remaining 57 patients were non-responders. We analyzed the association of aforesaid polymorphisms with the methotrexate treatment outcome using binary logistic regression. We observed that there were significant differences between genotype frequencies of HLA-Cw6 and FOXP3 (rs3761548) among the responders compared to non-responders, with conservative estimation. We observed that pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-12, and IL-23 were markedly reduced with the use of methotrexate, in comparison to the baseline levels, while the plasma IL-4 levels were increased posttreatment. Our results serve as preliminary evidence for the clinical use of genetic markers as predictors of response to methotrexate in psoriasis. This might aid in the future in the development of a point-of-care testing (POCT) gene chip, to predict optimal treatment response in patients with psoriasis, based on their individual genotypic profile.

  11. Methotrexate osteopathy in long-term, low-dose methotrexate treatment for psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zonneveld, I. M.; Bakker, W. K.; Dijkstra, P. F.; Bos, J. D.; van Soesbergen, R. M.; Dinant, H. J.

    1996-01-01

    In dermatology and rheumatology, methotrexate is frequently prescribed in low dosages per week; in oncology, high dosages per week are prescribed. Methotrexate osteopathy was first reported in children with leukemia treated with high doses of methotrexate. In animal studies, low doses of

  12. Methotrexate for refractory prurigo nodularis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Al Zaabi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Prurigo nodularis (PN is chronic unbearable inflammatory skin disease. Although it was described before a century, not many studies have been conducted regarding the systemic treatment of prurigo nodularis. A 64-year-old male patient has moderate to severe atopic dermatitis superimposed by disseminated pruritic nodules over the trunk and extremities. In spite of topical treatment and Phototherapy, patient condition was deteriorating. Therefore, the patient was treated with multimodalities including high potency topical steroid, intravenous antihistamine, cyclosporine and omalizumab without improvement. Thus the patient has been treated with methotrexate which led to remarkable improvement. Management of prurigo nodularis is often challenging as the etiology of PN in the majority of the cases is unknown. Conservative treatments are often inefficient. This case proves the efficacy of methotrexate in the management of prurigo nodularis.

  13. Effect of biologic therapy on radiological progression in rheumatoid arthritis: what does it add to methotrexate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jones G

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Graeme Jones, Erica Darian-Smith, Michael Kwok, Tania WinzenbergMenzies Research Institute, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, AustraliaAbstract: There have been substantial advances in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis in recent years. Traditional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs have been shown to have small effects on the progression of radiographic damage. This quantitative overview summarizes the evidence for biologic DMARDS and radiographic damage either alone or in combination with methotrexate. Two outcomes were used (standardized mean difference and odds of progression. A total of 21 trials were identified of which 18 had useable data. For biologic monotherapy, tocilizumab, adalimumab, and etanercept were significantly better than methotrexate, with tocilizumab ranking first in both outcomes while golimumab was ineffective in both outcomes. For a biologic in combination with methotrexate compared with methotrexate alone, most therapies studied (etanercept, adalimumab, infliximab, certolizumab, tocilizumab, and rituximab were effective at slowing X-ray progression using either outcome, with infliximab ranking first in both outcomes. The exceptions to this were golimumab (no effect on standardized mean difference and abatacept (no effect on odds of progression. This effect was additional to methotrexate; thus, the overall benefit is moderate to large in magnitude, which is clearly of major clinical significance for sufferers of rheumatoid arthritis and supports the use of biologic DMARDs in those with a poor disease prognosis.Keywords: rheumatoid, trials, meta-analysis, radiographs, biologic, disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, DMARDs

  14. Use of methotrexate in patients with uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, A; Rosenbaum, J T

    2010-01-01

    Methotrexate has been frequently employed to treat ocular inflammatory diseases including uveitis, scleritis, and orbital inflammatory disease. It is effective for intraocular lymphoma when given directly into the eye. No study has assessed its efficacy for eye disease in a randomised, placebo controlled design. This report reviews the literature relevant to methotrexate's utility in the treatment of ocular inflammatory disease.

  15. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF FORECASTING FOR OUTCOMES IN VICTIMS OF METHANE-COAL MIXTURE EXPLOSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Y. Fistal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The severity of the victims’ state  in the early period after the combined  trauma (with the prevalence of a thermal  injury is associated with the development of numerous  changes  in all organs and systems  which make proper  diagnosis  of complications and estimation of lethal  outcome  probability extremely  difficult to be performed.MATERIAL AND METHODS. The article  presents a mathematical model  for predicting  lethal  outcomes  in victims of methanecoal mixture explosion, based on case histories of 220 miners who were treated at the Donetsk Burn Center in 1994–2012.RESULTS. It was revealed  that  the  probability  of lethal  outcomes  in victims of methane-coal mixture  explosion was statistically significantly affected  with the  area  of deep  burns  (p<0.001, and  the  severe traumatic brain injury (p<0.001. In the probability of lethal  outcomes,  tactics  of surgical treatment for burn wounds in the early hours after the injury was statistically significant (p=0.003. It involves the primary debridement of burn wounds in the period of burn shock with the simultaneous closure of affected  surfaces with temporary biological covering.CONCLUSION. These neural network models are easy to practice and may be created  for the most common pathologic conditions  frequently encountered in clinical practice.

  16. Methotrexate-loaded biodegradable nanoparticles: preparation ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    In the present work, formulation and development of a novel methotrexate ... etc and also evaluated for its in vitro cytotoxic potential against U-343 MGa human neuronal glioblastoma ... 2.3a Particle size, polydispersity index and zeta poten-.

  17. Correlation of RAD51 and radiosensitization of methotrexate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Liqing; Bai Jianqiang; Liu Qiang; Wang Yan; Zhao Peng; Chen Fenghua; Wang Hong; Fan Feiyue

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the correlation between homologous recombination repair protein RAD51 and methotrexate-enhanced radiosensitivity. Methods: Western blot and RT-PCR assays were used to detect RAD51 expression in HOS osteosarcoma cells exposed to γ-ray irradiation alone and in combination with methotrexate. Colony formation assay was used to test the survival fraction of HOS cells exposed to γ-rays and methotrexate. Results: Methotrexate inhibited both protein and RNA expressions of RAD51, and the combination of radiation and methotrexate enhanced the inhibition of RAD51 expression. Moreover, transfection of cells with RAD51 gene decreased cellular sensitivity to methotrexate and γ-rays. The sensitizer enhancement ratios after irradiation in combination with methotrexate were 1.51 and 0.99, respectively. Methotrexate was a preferred radiosensitizer to HOS cell. Conclusions: RAD51 might be involved in the methotrexate-enhanced radiosensitivity. (authors)

  18. Methotrexate therapy for chronic noninfectious uveitis: analysis of a case series of 160 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, C M; Waheed, N; Baltatzis, S; Foster, C S

    2001-06-01

    To evaluate the outcomes of patients with chronic noninfectious uveitis unresponsive to conventional antiinflammatory therapy who were treated with methotrexate. Retrospective noncomparative interventional case series. All patients with chronic noninfectious uveitis treated with methotrexate at a single institution from 1985 to 1999. Charts of patients seen on the Ocular Immunology & Uveitis Service at the Massachusetts Eye & Ear Infirmary were reviewed. Patients with chronic uveitis of noninfectious origin treated with methotrexate were included in the study. Control of inflammation, steroid-sparing effect, visual acuity, adverse reactions. A total of 160 patients met the inclusion criteria. Control of inflammation was achieved in 76.2% of patients. Steroid-sparing effect was achieved in 56% of patients. Visual acuity was maintained or improved in 90% of patients. Side effects requiring discontinuation of medication occurred in 18% of patients. Potentially serious adverse reactions occurred in only 8.1% of patients. There was neither long-term morbidity nor mortality caused by methotrexate. Methotrexate is effective in the treatment of chronic noninfectious uveitis that fails to respond to conventional steroid treatment. It is an effective steroid-sparing immunomodulator, is a safe medication, and is well tolerated.

  19. Efficacy of etanercept in preventing relapse of uveitis controlled by methotrexate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, C Stephen; Tufail, Fehma; Waheed, Nadia Khalida; Chu, David; Miserocchi, Elisabetta; Baltatzis, Stefanos; Vredeveld, Cindy M

    2003-04-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of etanercept vs placebo in preventing relapses of uveitis in patients taking methotrexate with control of uveitis and whose methotrexate dosage was being tapered. Patients with chronic or recurrent noninfectious uveitis with inflammation controlled by low-dose methotrexate were randomized to either the drug or placebo group in a double-masked manner, given a methotrexate taper schedule, and followed for 24 weeks. The main outcome measures were control of inflammation, visual acuity, and adverse reactions. Data were analyzed both as an attempt-to-treat analysis and an analysis only of those patients who completed the study. A total of 20 patients were randomized to the drug and placebo groups. Relapse of uveitis occurred in 3 of 10 patients in the treatment group and 5 of 10 patients in the control group. Two patients in the treatment group withdrew prematurely from the study due to adverse effects. There was no significant difference between the treatment and placebo groups with regard to the rate of relapse and the final visual acuity. No patient suffered from any irreversible, long-term morbidity or mortality. Etanercept has no significant efficacy over placebo in preventing relapses of uveitis in patients being tapered from methotrexate.

  20. Use of mycophenolate mofetil in patients with severe localized scleroderma resistant or intolerant to methotrexate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, Jorre S.; Marsman, Diane; van de Kerkhof, Peter C M; Hoppenreijs, Esther P A H; Knaapen, Hanneke K A; Radstake, Timothy R D; de Jong, Elke M G J; Seyger, Marieke M B

    2016-01-01

    To assess the efficacy and safety of mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) in patients with localized scleroderma (LoS) resistant or intolerant to previous treatment with methotrexate (MTX). A case series of patients with LoS treated with MMF. Outcome was assessed through clinical examination. Adverse events

  1. Methotrexate information booklet study 2008.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mohammad, A

    2012-02-01

    INTRODUCTION: I n order to assess the value of using the methotrexate information booklet, we conducted a single blind prospective controlled trial of the patients attending two rheumatology services. METHODS: The active-arm (n=40) used the MTX information booklet for the patients\\' education and the control-arm (n=38) did not. Patients\\' interviews were conducted over a 6-month period using an MTX-questionnaire. RESULTS: The entire active-arm patients (100%) were taking folic-acid and 32 (80%) knew the reason why they were taking folic-acid vs. [30 (79%) and 10 (26%) in the control-arm]. In the active-arm 35 (88%) knew the reason for their monthly blood tests vs. 18 (47%) in the control-arm. The entire active-arm was aware of the need for contraception use and MTX-side effects vs. 23 (60%) and 15 (40%) in the control-arm respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the MTX information booklet in our cohort improved their understanding of the treatment.

  2. Intravitreal methotrexate infusion for proliferative vitreoretinopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadaka A

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Ama Sadaka,1 Robert A Sisk,1–3 James M Osher,1,3 Okan Toygar,4 Melinda K Duncan,5 Christopher D Riemann1,3 1Department of Ophthalmology, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, 2Department of Opthalmology, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, 3Cincinnati Eye Institute, Cincinnati, OH, USA; 4Department of Ophthalmology, Bahcesehir University Medical Faculty, Istanbul, Turkey; 5Department of Biological Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate intravitreal methotrexate infusion (IMI during pars plana vitrectomy (PPV for retinal detachment in patients with high risk for the development of proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR.Methods: Patients presenting with severe recurrent PVR with tractional retinal detachment and/or a history of severe ocular inflammation were treated with IMI. Clinical outcomes were determined from a retrospective medical chart review.Results: Twenty-nine eyes presenting with either tractional retinal detachment and recurrent PVR (n=22 or a history of severe inflammation associated with high PVR risk (n=7 received IMI during PPV. Best-corrected visual acuity at 6 months was ≥20/200 in 19 of 29 eyes (66% and remained stable or improved compared with initial presentation in 24 of 29 eyes (83%. At the last follow-up examination, the retinas of 26 of 29 eyes (90% remained attached after IMI while three eyes required another reattachment procedure. Three additional eyes (10% developed recurrent limited PVR without recurrent RD and were observed. No complications attributable to IMI occurred during a mean follow-up of 27 months.Conclusion: Eyes at high risk for PVR development due to a history of prior PVR or intraocular inflammation had a low incidence of PVR following IMI at the time of PPV for RD repair. No significant safety issues from IMI were observed in this series. Keywords: tractional retinal detachment, recurrent retinal detachment, pars

  3. [Hemiparesis and facial palsy caused by methotrexate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda Arenas, E; García Corzo, J; Franco Ospina, L

    2013-12-01

    Methotrexate used in the treatment of acute lymphocytic leukemia, can cause neurotoxicity, including a rare presentation with hemiparesis. We describe two teenagers, who during the implementation of the M phase of the protocol, suffered hemiparesis, facial paresis and dysarthria which quickly reversed. Leukemia involvement of the central nervous system and stroke, were ruled out. We briefly review the pathophysiology of methotrexate neurotoxicity, the characteristics of the focal paresis presentation and magnetic resonance image findings. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  4. A Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Methotrexate and Mycophenolate Mofetil for Non-Infectious Uveitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Babu, Manohar; Thundikandy, Radhika; Kanakath, Anuradha; Nardone, Natalie; Esterberg, Elizabeth; Lee, Salena M; Enanoria, Wayne TA; Porco, Travis C; Browne, Erica N; Weinrib, Rachel; Acharya, Nisha R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To compare the relative effectiveness of methotrexate and mycophenolate mofetil for non-infectious intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis, or panuveitis. Design Multicenter, block-randomized, observer-masked clinical trial Participants Eighty patients with non-infectious intermediate, posterior or panuveitis requiring corticosteroid-sparing therapy at Aravind Eye Hospitals in Madurai and Coimbatore, India. Intervention Patients were randomized to receive 25mg weekly oral methotrexate or 1g twice daily oral mycophenolate mofetil and were monitored monthly for 6 months. Oral prednisone and topical corticosteroids were tapered. Main Outcome Measures Masked examiners assessed the primary outcome of treatment success, defined by achieving the following at 5 and 6 months: (1) ≤0.5+ anterior chamber cells, ≤0.5+ vitreous cells, ≤0.5+ vitreous haze and no active retinal/choroidal lesions in both eyes, (2) ≤ 10 mg of prednisone and ≤ 2 drops of prednisolone acetate 1% a day and (3) no declaration of treatment failure due to intolerability or safety. Additional outcomes included time to sustained corticosteroid-sparing control of inflammation, change in best spectacle-corrected visual acuity, resolution of macular edema, adverse events, subgroup analysis by anatomic location, and medication adherence. Results Forty-one patients were randomized to methotrexate and 39 to mycophenolate mofetil. A total of 67 patients (35 methotrexate, 32 mycophenolate mofetil) contributed to the primary outcome. Sixty-nine percent of patients achieved treatment success with methotrexate and 47% with mycophenolate mofetil (p=0.09). Treatment failure due to adverse events or tolerability was not significantly different by treatment arm (p=0.99). There were no statistically significant differences between treatment groups in time to corticosteroid-sparing control of inflammation (p=0.44), change in best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (p=0.68), and resolution of macular

  5. Intraocular methotrexate can induce extended remission in some patients in noninfectious uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Simon R J; Banker, Alay; Schlaen, Ariel; Couto, Cristobal; Matthe, Egbert; Joshi, Lavnish; Menezo, Victor; Nguyen, Ethan; Tomkins-Netzer, Oren; Bar, Asaf; Morarji, Jiten; McCluskey, Peter; Lightman, Sue

    2013-01-01

    To assess the outcomes of the intravitreal administration of methotrexate in uveitis. Multicenter, retrospective interventional case series of patients with noninfectious uveitis. Thirty-eight eyes of 30 patients were enrolled, including a total of 54 intravitreal injections of methotrexate at a dose of 400 µg in 0.1 mL. The primary outcome measure was visual acuity. Secondary outcome measures included control of intraocular inflammation and cystoid macular edema, time to relapse, development of adverse events, and levels of systemic corticosteroid and immunosuppressive therapy. Methotrexate proved effective in controlling intraocular inflammation and improving vision in 30 of 38 eyes (79%). The side effect profile was good, with no reported serious ocular adverse events and only one patient having an intraocular pressure of >21 mmHg. Of the 30 eyes that responded to treatment, 8 relapsed, but 22 (73%) entered an extended period of remission, with the Kaplan-Meier estimate of median time to relapse for the whole group being 17 months. The eight eyes that relapsed were reinjected and all responded to treatment. One eye relapsed at 3 months, but 7 eyes again entered extended remission. Of the 14 patients on systemic therapy at the start of the study, 8 (57%) were able to significantly reduce this following intravitreal methotrexate injection. In patients with uveitis and uveitic cystoid macular edema, intravitreal MTX can effectively improve visual acuity and reduce cystoid macular edema and, in some patients, allows the reduction of immunosuppressive therapy. Some patients relapse at 3 to 4 months, but a large proportion (73%) enter an extended period of remission of up to 18 months. This larger study extends the results obtained from previous smaller studies suggesting the viability of intravitreal methotrexate as a treatment option in uveitis.

  6. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  7. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  8. A randomized clinical trial comparing methotrexate and mycophenolate mofetil for noninfectious uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Babu, Manohar; Thundikandy, Radhika; Kanakath, Anuradha; Nardone, Natalie; Esterberg, Elizabeth; Lee, Salena M; Enanoria, Wayne T A; Porco, Travis C; Browne, Erica N; Weinrib, Rachel; Acharya, Nisha R

    2014-10-01

    To compare the relative effectiveness of methotrexate and mycophenolate mofetil for noninfectious intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis, or panuveitis. Multicenter, block-randomized, observer-masked clinical trial. Eighty patients with noninfectious intermediate, posterior, or panuveitis requiring corticosteroid-sparing therapy at Aravind Eye Hospitals in Madurai and Coimbatore, India. Patients were randomized to receive 25 mg weekly oral methotrexate or 1 g twice daily oral mycophenolate mofetil and were monitored monthly for 6 months. Oral prednisone and topical corticosteroids were tapered. Masked examiners assessed the primary outcome of treatment success, defined by achieving the following at 5 and 6 months: (1) ≤0.5+ anterior chamber cells, ≤0.5+ vitreous cells, ≤0.5+ vitreous haze and no active retinal/choroidal lesions in both eyes, (2) ≤10 mg of prednisone and ≤2 drops of prednisolone acetate 1% a day, and (3) no declaration of treatment failure because of intolerability or safety. Additional outcomes included time to sustained corticosteroid-sparing control of inflammation, change in best spectacle-corrected visual acuity, resolution of macular edema, adverse events, subgroup analysis by anatomic location, and medication adherence. Forty-one patients were randomized to methotrexate and 39 to mycophenolate mofetil. A total of 67 patients (35 methotrexate, 32 mycophenolate mofetil) contributed to the primary outcome. Sixty-nine percent of patients achieved treatment success with methotrexate and 47% with mycophenolate mofetil (P = 0.09). Treatment failure from adverse events or tolerability was not different by treatment arm (P = 0.99). There were no differences between treatment groups in time to corticosteroid-sparing control of inflammation (P = 0.44), change in best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (P = 0.68), or resolution of macular edema (P = 0.31). There was no statistically significant difference in corticosteroid-sparing control of

  9. Pharmacogenomics of Methotrexate Membrane Transport Pathway: Can Clinical Response to Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis Be Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurea Lima

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Methotrexate (MTX is widely used for rheumatoid arthritis (RA treatment. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs could be used as predictors of patients’ therapeutic outcome variability. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the influence of SNPs in genes encoding for MTX membrane transport proteins in order to predict clinical response to MTX. Methods: Clinicopathological data from 233 RA patients treated with MTX were collected, clinical response defined, and patients genotyped for 23 SNPs. Genotype and haplotype analyses were performed using multivariate methods and a genetic risk index (GRI for non-response was created. Results: Increased risk for non-response was associated to SLC22A11 rs11231809 T carriers; ABCC1 rs246240 G carriers; ABCC1 rs3784864 G carriers; CGG haplotype for ABCC1 rs35592, rs2074087 and rs3784864; and CGG haplotype for ABCC1 rs35592, rs246240 and rs3784864. GRI demonstrated that patients with Index 3 were 16-fold more likely to be non-responders than those with Index 1. Conclusions: This study revealed that SLC22A11 and ABCC1 may be important to identify those patients who will not benefit from MTX treatment, highlighting the relevance in translating these results to clinical practice. However, further validation by independent studies is needed to develop the field of personalized medicine to predict clinical response to MTX treatment.

  10. Enzymatic assay for methotrexate in erythrocytes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, H; Heinsvig, E M

    1985-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) accumulates in erythrocytes in MTX-treated patients. We present a modified enzymatic assay measuring MTX concentrations between 10 and 60 nmol/l in erythrocytes, adapted for a centrifugal analyser (Cobas Bio). About 40 patient's samples could be analysed within 1 h. The detection...

  11. Discovery – Methotrexate: Chemotherapy Treatment for Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prior to the 1950s, treatment for the majority of cancers was limited to either surgery or the use of radiation. The discovery of the use of methotrexate in curing a rare cancer marked the first time a cancer had been cured. This led to the development of many of today’s common cancer treatments.

  12. Adherence to methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bliddal, Henning; Eriksen, Stine A; Christensen, Robin

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. To study adherence to methotrexate (MTX) and factors of importance thereof in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. Patients with a hospital diagnosis of RA (ICD10 codes M05.X or M06.X) after January 1, 1997, and aged ≥18 years at the date of first diagnosis...

  13. Enhancement effect of irradiation by methotrexate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shehata, W.M.; Meyer, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    Three cases are described in which complications developed which were believed to be due to the enhancement effect of irradiation by methotrexate during the course of therapy for lung, kidney, and bladder cancer. These included esophageal and large bowel complications. In two of these cases, the patients improved with conservative therapy

  14. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  15. Mycophenolate mofetil after methotrexate failure or intolerance in the treatment of scleritis and uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobrin, Lucia; Christen, William; Foster, C Stephen

    2008-08-01

    To evaluate the outcomes of treatment with mycophenolate mofetil in patients with scleritis and uveitis refractory to or intolerant of methotrexate. Retrospective noncomparative case series. Eighty-five patients with scleritis and/or uveitis who failed with or did not tolerate methotrexate and were subsequently treated with mycophenolate mofetil between 1998 and 2006. We reviewed medical records of patients who were treated with mycophenolate mofetil after methotrexate intolerance or failure at one tertiary uveitis referral practice. We recorded dose and duration of methotrexate and mycophenolate mofetil therapy, inflammation grade, Snellen visual acuity (VA), use of other immunomodulatory therapy, and adverse events. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with inflammation control. Control of inflammation, steroid-sparing effect, VA, and adverse effects were assessed. Inflammation was controlled with mycophenolate mofetil in 47 patients (55%), with 5 achieving durable remission off all medication. In multivariate logistic regression analysis that adjusted for gender and age, the odds of inflammation control were lower for patients with scleritis (odds ratio [OR], 0.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.04-0.93; P = 0.04) than for patients without scleritis. Among patients without scleritis, the odds of inflammation control were lower for patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA)-associated uveitis (OR, 0.14; CI, 0.02-0.81, P = 0.03) compared to patients without JIA-associated uveitis. Eight of the 11 patients (73%) who were taking concomitant prednisone were able to taper their dose to methotrexate. The odds of inflammation control were less in patients with the diagnoses of scleritis and JIA.

  16. Methotrexate-induced toxicity pharmacogenetics: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Jared M; Bateman, Emma; Stephenson, Matthew D; Bowen, Joanne M; Keefe, Dorothy M; Peters, Micah D J

    2016-07-01

    Methotrexate chemotherapy is associated with various toxicities which can result in the interruption or discontinuation of treatment and a subsequently raised risk of relapse. This umbrella systematic review was conducted to synthesize the results of all existing systematic reviews that investigate the pharmacogenetics of methotrexate-induced toxicity, with the aim of developing a comprehensive reference for personalized medicine. Databases searched were PubMed, Embase, JBI Database of Systematic Reviews and Implementation Reports, DARE, and ProQuest. Papers were critically appraised by two reviewers, and data were extracted using a standardized tool. Three systematic reviews on methotrexate-induced toxicity were included in the review. Meta-analyses were reported across Asian, Caucasian, pediatric and adult patients for the MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms. Toxicity outcomes included different forms of hematologic, ectodermal and hepatic toxicities. Results varied considerably depending on the patient groups and subgroups investigated in the different systematic reviews, as well as the genetic models utilized. However, significant associations were found between the MTHFR C677T allele and; hepatic toxicity, myelosuppression, oral mucositis, gastrointestinal toxicity, and skin toxicity. Additionally, limited evidence suggests that the MTHFR A1298C polymorphism may be associated with decreased risk of skin toxicity and leukopenia. This umbrella systematic review has synthesized the best available evidence on the pharmacogenetics of methotrexate toxicity. The next step in making personalized medicine for methotrexate therapy a clinical reality is research on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of MTHFR genotype testing to enable the close monitoring of at-risk patients for the timely initiation of rescue therapies.

  17. Methotrexate as a first-line corticosteroid-sparing therapy in a cohort of uveitis and scleritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan-Messas, Audrey; Barkana, Yaniv; Avni, Isaac; Neumann, Ron

    2003-06-01

    To evaluate the clinical experience with methotrexate as a first-line corticosteroid-sparing drug in patients with resistant ocular inflammation. We retrospectively studied 39 consecutive patients with uveitis (n = 36) or scleritis (n = 3) who were treated with methotrexate following inadequate control with corticosteroids lasting five years. Criteria for initiating treatment with methotrexate and defining outcome were strictly defined. The cohort included 21 females and 18 males, all Caucasians, with a mean age of 26.6 years (range: 3-73 years). Patients were followed up for 21.5 +/- 12.6 months. Treatment was discontinued due to side effects in 10 patients (26%). Of the remaining 29 patients, full or partial control of inflammation was achieved in 23 (79%). Response to treatment was observed after a mean of 2.4 +/- 0.8 months. Ten patients were fully controlled and discontinued methotrexate therapy after a mean of 20.9 +/- 9.2 months, with no recurrence of inflammation. Use of topical and systemic corticosteroids was markedly reduced in responsive patients. Methotrexate is recommended as a first-line adjunct to or replacement of systemic corticosteroids in the treatment of ocular inflammation.

  18. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  19. Folate overproduction in Lactobacillus plantarum WCFS1 causes methotrexate resistance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wegkamp, H.B.A.; Vos, de W.M.; Smid, E.J.

    2009-01-01

    Folate overproduction can serve as a mode of resistance against the folate antagonist methotrexate in Lactobacillus plantarum WCFS1. When compared with a wild-type control strain, an engineered high folate-producing strain was found to be insensitive to methotrexate. The growth rate and the viable

  20. Methotrexate use in allergic contact dermatitis: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ashaki; Burns, Erin; Burkemper, Nicole M

    2018-03-01

    Methotrexate, a folate antimetabolite, is used to treat atopic dermatitis and psoriasis. Although methotrexate's therapeutic efficacy has been noted in the literature, there are few data on the efficacy of methotrexate treatment for allergic contact dermatitis. To evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of methotrexate in treating allergic contact dermatitis at a single institution, and also to assess methotrexate efficacy in patients with chronic, unavoidable allergen exposure. We performed a retrospective chart review of 32 patients diagnosed with allergic contact dermatitis by positive patch test reactions, and who received treatment with methotrexate from November 2010 to November 2014. Demographic and treatment-associated data were collected from electronic medical records. Ten patients were identified as allergen non-avoiders secondary to their occupation, and were subgrouped as such. Seventy-eight per cent (25/32) of patients showed either a partial or a complete response. Methotrexate had a comparable efficacy rate in the allergen non-avoiders subset, at 10 of 10. Of the 32 patients, 23% (5/22) had complete clearance of their dermatitis, and 1/10 of allergen non-avoiders had complete clearance of their dermatitis. Methotrexate is a well-tolerated and effective treatment for allergic contact dermatitis, and shows comparable efficacy to immunomodulatory agents such as cyclosporine and azathioprine, with robust efficacy despite persistent allergen exposure in patients with allergic contact dermatitis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Methotrexate-induced acute toxic leukoencephalopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parag R Salkade

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL is one of the most common malignancies of childhood, which is treated with high doses of methotrexate (MTX, as it crosses the blood-brain barrier and can be administered intravenously and via intrathecal route to eradicate leukemic cells from central nervous system (CNS. Additionally, high doses of MTX not only prevent CNS recurrence but also hematologic relapses. Although, standard treatment protocol for ALL includes multimodality therapy, MTX is usually associated with neurotoxicity and affects periventricular deep white matter region. Methotrexate-induced ′acute toxic leukoencephalopathy′ has varying clinical manifestations ranging from acute neurological deficit to seizures or encephalopathy. Diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI is widely available and routinely used in clinical practice to identify acute stroke and also to distinguish acute stroke from non-stroke like conditions. We report a local teenage Chinese girl who developed 2 discrete episodes of left upper and lower limb weakness with left facial nerve paresis after receiving the 2 nd and 3 rd cycle of high dose of intravenous and intrathecal methotrexate, without having cranial irradiation. After each episode of her neurological deficit, the DW-MRI scan showed focal restricted diffusion in right centrum semiovale. Her left sided focal neurological deficit and facial nerve paresis almost completely subsided on both these occasions within 3 days of symptom onset. Follow-up DW-MRI, after her neurological recovery, revealed almost complete resolution of previously noted restricted diffusion in right centrum semiovale, while the lesion was not evident on concurrent T2W (T2-weighted and FLAIR (Fluid-Attenuated Inversion recovery sequences, nor showed any post contrast enhancement on post gadolinium enhanced T1W (T1-weighted sequences. No residual neurological deficit or intellectual impairment was identified on clinical follow up

  2. CT and MRI appearances of methotrexate leucoencephalopathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilks, M.J.; Tie, M.L.K.; Pozza, C.H.

    2002-01-01

    Methotrexate is a well recognised cause of diffuse symmetrical leucoencephalopathy. The widespread use of the drug in chemotherapeutic regimes necessitates awareness of this complication. A case report and a brief literature review is presented. A 20-year-old single woman presented to the Emergency Department with a 6-week history of general malaise, lower back pain and a petechial rash. From investigations including blood picture and bone marrow trephine, the diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) was made. Three cycles of induction chemotherapy were administered consisting of intravenous cytarabine and hydrocortisone and intrathecal methotrexate. Shortly after the third cycle of induction chemotherapy (6 weeks following diagnosis, 2 days following the last dose of intrathecal methotrexate) she presented with an acute neurological episode consisting of muteness and somnolence. Physical examination showed generalised flaccidity to all muscle groups and generalised loss of reflexes. There were no consistent cranial neuropathies and the patient was not neutropenic. Computed tomography of the brain showed extensive symmetric white matter hypodensity extending throughout the corona radiata and deep white matter tracts especially the external capsules. There was no abnormal enhancement with non-ionic contrast administration or evidence of grey matter involvement. Magnetic resonance imaging was subsequently performed, the fluid attenuated inversion recovery images (FLAIR) and T2-weighted image (T2WI) demonstrated marked white matter hyperintensity; the involvement was more extensive than demonstrated on the CT with additional involvement of the subcortical and cerebellar white matter, the basal ganglia and cortex of the mesial temporal and inferior frontal lobes. Gadolinium was not administered. A follow up study after 4 weeks of steroid and folinic acid therapy showed complete resolution of the white matter hyperintensity on the T2WI and FLAIR sequences

  3. The combination of etanercept and methotrexate increases the effectiveness of treatment in active psoriasis despite inadequate effect of methotrexate therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariae, Claus; Mørk, Nils-Jørgen; Reunala, Timo

    2008-01-01

    Many patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis do not respond adequately to methotrexate monotherapy. This pilot study, with a small patient population, was performed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of etanercept and methotrexate combination in patients with plaque psoriasis...

  4. Four-year experience with methotrexate exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoVecchio, Frank; Katz, Kenneth; Watts, David; Wood, Ian

    2008-09-01

    Unintentional methotrexate (MTX) acute oral overdose is rarely reported. We conducted a retrospective chart review of all human exposure calls (>150,000 charts) for MTX ingestions reported to our Poison Center during 2000-2003. Thirteen patients met the criteria. The average amount of MTX ingested was 13.03 mg (data from 7 cases), and the average patient age was 43 years (20 months to 80 years). No significant toxicities occurred. Although intravenous MTX toxicity can be severe, this does not appear to be a phenomenon associated with either acute unintentional or suicidal oral ingestion.

  5. Nodulose por Metotrexato Methotrexate Induced Nodulosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Guidolin

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available A nodulose por metotrexato (MTX é um dos efeitos colaterais pouco conhecidos do uso desse medicamento em doses baixas. Embora classicamente descrita em casos de artrite reumatóide, tem aparecido, também, em outras doenças reumáticas. Descreve-se aqui um caso de nodulose por MTX em uma paciente com artrite reumatóide soropositiva, que utilizava esse medicamento há um ano, com bom controle do processo articular. Segue-se uma breve revisão sobre o assunto.Methotrexate-induced nodulosis is a rare side effect of this drug when it is used in low doses. Although classically described in rheumatoid arthritis patients, it may also appear in other rheumatic disorders. We describe a seropositive rheumatoid arthritis patient who developed methotrexate-induced nodulosis after using this drug for a year, with good control of articular symptoms. This case presentation is followed by a brief revision on the subject.

  6. A qualitative analysis of methotrexate self-injection education videos on YouTube.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rittberg, Rebekah; Dissanayake, Tharindri; Katz, Steven J

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the quality of videos for patients available on YouTube for learning to self-administer subcutaneous methotrexate. Using the search term "Methotrexate injection," two clinical reviewers analyzed the first 60 videos on YouTube. Source and search rank of video, audience interaction, video duration, and time since video was uploaded on YouTube were recorded. Videos were classified as useful, misleading, or a personal patient view. Videos were rated for reliability, comprehensiveness, and global quality scale (GQS). Reasons for misleading videos were documented, and patient videos were documented as being either positive or negative towards methotrexate (MTX) injection. Fifty-one English videos overlapped between the two geographic locations; 10 videos were classified as useful (19.6 %), 14 misleading (27.5 %), and 27 personal patient view (52.9 %). Total views of videos were 161,028: 19.2 % useful, 72.8 % patient, and 8.0 % misleading. Mean GQS: 4.2 (±1.0) useful, 1.6 (±1.1) misleading, and 2.0 (±0.9) for patient videos (p tool available, clinicians need to be familiar with specific resources to help guide and educate their patients to ensure best outcomes.

  7. Forecasting the Long-Term Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Lumacaftor/Ivacaftor in Cystic Fibrosis Patients with Homozygous phe508del Mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilokthornsakul, Piyameth; Patidar, Mausam; Campbell, Jonathan D

    2017-12-01

    To forecast lifetime outcomes and cost of lumacaftor/ivacaftor combination therapy in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) with homozygous phe508del mutation from the US payer perspective. A lifetime Markov model was developed from a US payer perspective. The model included five health states: 1) mild lung disease (percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV 1 ] >70%), 2) moderate lung disease (40% ≤ FEV 1 ≤ 70%), 3) severe lung disease (FEV 1 < 40%), 4) lung transplantation, and 5) death. All inputs were derived from published literature. We estimated lumacaftor/ivacaftor's improvement in outcomes compared with a non-CF referent population as well as CF-specific mortality estimates. Lumacaftor/ivacaftor was associated with additional 2.91 life-years (95% credible interval 2.55-3.56) and additional 2.42 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% credible interval 2.10-2.98). Lumacaftor/ivacaftor was associated with improvements in survival and QALYs equivalent to 27.6% and 20.7%, respectively, for the survival and QALY gaps between CF usual care and their non-CF peers. The incremental lifetime cost was $2,632,249. Lumacaftor/ivacaftor increased life-years and QALYs in CF patients with the homozygous phe508del mutation and moved morbidity and mortality closer to that of their non-CF peers but it came with higher cost. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  9. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  10. Frequency of methotrexate intolerance in rheumatoid arthritis patients using methotrexate intolerance severity score (MISS questionnaire).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatimah, Nibah; Salim, Babur; Nasim, Amjad; Hussain, Kamran; Gul, Harris; Niazi, Sarah

    2016-05-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the frequency of methotrexate intolerance in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients by applying the methotrexate intolerance severity score (MISS) questionnaire and to see the effect of dose and concomitant use of other disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDS) on methotrexate (MTX) intolerance. For the descriptive study, non-probability sampling was carried out in the Female Rheumatology Department of Fauji Foundation Hospital (FFH), Rawalpindi, Pakistan. One hundred and fifty diagnosed cases of RA using oral MTX were selected. The MISS questionnaire embodies five elements: abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, fatigue and behavioural symptoms. The amplitude of each element was ranked from 0 to 3 being no complaint (0 points), mild (1 point), moderate (2 points) and severe (3 points). A cut-off score of 6 and above ascertained intolerance by the physicians. A total of 33.3 % of the subjects exhibited MTX intolerance according to the MISS questionnaire. Out of which, the most recurring symptom of all was behavioural with a value of 44 % whereas vomiting was least noticeable with a figure of 11 %. About 6.6 % of the women with intolerance were consuming DMARDs in conjunction with MTX. Those using the highest weekly dose of MTX (20 mg) had supreme intolerance with prevalence in 46.2 % of the patients. The frequency of intolerance decreased with a decrease in weekly dose to a minimum of 20 % with 7.5 mg of MTX. MTX intolerance has moderate prevalence in RA patients and if left undetected, the compliance to use of MTX as a first-line therapy will decrease. Methotrexate intolerance is directly proportional to the dose of MTX taken. Also, there is no upstroke seen in intolerance with the use of other disease-modifying agents.

  11. Effect of infliximab on renal injury due to methotrexate in rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirbas, Aynur; Cure, Medine Cumhur; Kalkan, Yildiray; Cure, Erkan; Tumkaya, Levent; Sahin, Osman Zikrullah; Yuce, Suleyman; Kizilkaya, Bayram; Pergel, Ahmet

    2015-05-01

    Methotrexate, an antagonist of folic acid used in the treatment of many cancers and inflammatory diseases, is associated with side effects that limit its usage. Infliximab has been reported to have a protective effect against nephrotoxicity induced by some drugs and ischemic reperfusion. We aimed to investigate whether infliximab has a protective effect against methotrexate-induced nephrotoxicity. We administered methotrexate at a dose of 20 mg/kg as a single intraperitoneal injection in 10 rats (methotrexate group). Another group of 10 rats received a single dose of infliximab, 7 mg/kg, intraperitoneally (infliximab group). The methotrexate and infliximab group received a similar single injection of infliximab 72 hours prior to methotrexate injection. After 72 hours a single dose of methotrexate, 20 mg/kg, was administered intraperitoneally. Five days after methotrexate injection, blood samples were collected and the kidney tissues were removed for biochemical and histological examination. The methotrexate group had significantly higher tissue levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (P = .008), interleukin-1β (P = .04), nitric oxide (P < .001), and adenosine deaminase (P < .001) than the methotrexate and infliximab group after the 5-day study. The methotrexate group also had significantly higher total histological scores (P < .001) and carbonic anhydrase-II activity (P < .001) when compared to the methotrexate and infliximab group. Infliximab has a strong protective effect against methotrexate-induced nephrotoxicity by suppressing cytokines release. It may decrease methotrexate-induced nephrotoxicity by regulating carbonic anhydrase-II enzyme activities and slowing down purine metabolism.

  12. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  13. Curcumin and folic acid abrogated methotrexate induced vascular endothelial dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankrityayan, Himanshu; Majumdar, Anuradha S

    2016-01-01

    Methotrexate, an antifolate drug widely used in rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and cancer, is known to cause vascular endothelial dysfunction by causing hyperhomocysteinemia, direct injury to endothelium or by increasing the oxidative stress (raising levels of 7,8-dihydrobiopterin). Curcumin is a naturally occurring polyphenol with strong antioxidant and anti-inflammatory action and therapeutic spectra similar to that of methotrexate. This study was performed to evaluate the effects of curcumin on methotrexate induced vascular endothelial dysfunction and also compare its effect with that produced by folic acid (0.072 μg·g(-1)·day(-1), p.o., 2 weeks) per se and in combination. Male Wistar rats were exposed to methotrexate (0.35 mg·kg(-1)·day(-1), i.p.) for 2 weeks to induce endothelial dysfunction. Methotrexate exposure led to shedding of endothelium, decreased vascular reactivity, increased oxidative stress, decreased serum nitrite levels, and increase in aortic collagen deposition. Curcumin (200 mg·kg(-1)·day(-1) and 400 mg·kg(-1)·day(-1), p.o.) for 4 weeks prevented the increase in oxidative stress, decrease in serum nitrite, aortic collagen deposition, and also vascular reactivity. The effects were comparable with those produced by folic acid therapy. The study shows that curcumin, when concomitantly administered with methotrexate, abrogated its vascular side effects by preventing an increase in oxidative stress and abating any reduction in physiological nitric oxide levels.

  14. Methotrexate pharmacogenetics in Uruguayan adults with hematological malignant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giletti, Andrea; Vital, Marcelo; Lorenzo, Mariana; Cardozo, Patricia; Borelli, Gabriel; Gabus, Raúl; Martínez, Lem; Díaz, Lilian; Assar, Rodrigo; Rodriguez, María Noel; Esperón, Patricia

    2017-11-15

    Individual variability is among the causes of toxicity and interruption of treatment in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and severe non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients under protocols including Methotrexate (MTX): 2,4-diamino-N10-methyl propyl-glutamic acid. 41 Uruguayan patients were recruited. Gene polymorphisms involved in MTX pathway were analyzed and their association with treatment toxicities and outcome was evaluated. Genotype distribution and allele frequency were determined for SLC19A1 G 80 A, MTHFR C 677 T and A 1298 C, TYMS 28bp copy number variation, SLCO1B1 T 521 C, DHFR C -1610 G/T, DHFR C -680 A, DHFR A -317 G and DHFR 19bp indel. Multivariate analysis showed that DHFR -1610 G/T (OR=0.107, p=0.018) and MTHFR 677 T alleles (OR=0.12, p=0.026) had a strong protective effect against hematologic toxicity, while DHFR -1610 CC genotype increased this toxicity (OR=9, p=0.045). No more associations were found. The associations found between gene polymorphisms and toxicities in this small cohort are encouraging for a more extensive research to gain a better dose individualization in adult ALL and NHL patients. Besides, genotype distribution showed to be different from other populations, reinforcing the idea that genotype data from other populations should not be extrapolated to ours. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. High prevalence of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : development and validation of a methotrexate intolerance severity score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulatović, Maja; Heijstek, Marloes W; Verkaaik, Marleen; van Dijkhuizen, E H Pieter; Armbrust, Wineke; Hoppenreijs, Esther P A; Kamphuis, Sylvia; Kuis, Wietse; Egberts, Toine C G; Sinnema, Gerben; Rademaker, Carin M A; Wulffraat, Nico M

    OBJECTIVE: To design and validate a new questionnaire for identifying patients with methotrexate (MTX) intolerance, and to determine the prevalence of MTX intolerance in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) using this questionnaire. METHODS: The MTX Intolerance Severity Score (MISS)

  16. High prevalence of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: development and validation of a methotrexate intolerance severity score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulatovic, M.; Heijstek, M.W.; Verkaaik, M.; Dijkhuizen, E.H. van; Armbrust, W.; Hoppenreijs, E.P.A.H.; Kamphuis, S.; Kuis, W.; Egberts, T.C.; Sinnema, G.; Rademaker, C.M.A.; Wulffraat, N.M.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To design and validate a new questionnaire for identifying patients with methotrexate (MTX) intolerance, and to determine the prevalence of MTX intolerance in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) using this questionnaire. METHODS: The MTX Intolerance Severity Score (MISS)

  17. Dynamics of Destructive Joint Changes in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis in Children who Received Methotrexate or Methotrexate-Tocilizumab Combination: a Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria A. Davydova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Destructive joint damages in juvenile arthritis inevitably lead to persistent disability in adulthood. These consequences can be avoided by resorting to early therapy of the disease.Objective. Our aim was to assess the dynamics of destructive joint changes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA in children, depending on a basic therapy.Methods. We studied the treatment results of children with systemic-onset JIA with active joint syndrome without active  systemic manifestations hospitalized in the regional clinical  cardiological health center. JIA activity criteria at the time of  hospitalization: 3 joints with active arthritis; the assessment of the disease activity by a doctor 3 points out of 10; the assessment of  wellbeing by the patient or a parent 3 points out of 10; the  appointment of basic therapy no later than 6 months from the  disease onset. Treatment results were compared in the groups of  methotrexate (hospitalization from January 2008 to December 2010 and methotrexate + tocilizumab (January 2014 — September 2016. The main outcome of JIA therapy was the severity of joint  destruction in 6, 12 and 24 months as determined by the modified  Sharpe ratio according to radiographs obtained from patients' medical records.Results. The study groups were comparable in terms of sex and age of the patients, JIA onset age, the disease activity at the time of  hospitalization, and the initial assessment of joint destruction —  (median 165 (131; 187 and 162 (124; 171 (p = 0.116. Under  pressure of therapy, the modified Sharpe score in the group of  methotrexate monotherapy was higher than in the group of combined therapy: in 6 months — 142 (126; 163 and 87 (72; 112 (p < 0.001; in 12 months — 166 (121; 210 and 75 (29; 89 (p <  0.001; in 24 months — 165 (113; 198 and 52 (26; 73 (p <  0.001. At the first administration of tocilizumab, 4 children had nausea and abdominal pain, and 3 children had

  18. An indirect comparison and cost per responder analysis of adalimumab, methotrexate and apremilast in the treatment of methotrexate-naïve patients with psoriatic arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Keith A; Griffith, Jenny; Friedman, Alan; Zhou, Zheng-Yi; Signorovitch, James E; Ganguli, Arijit

    2016-01-01

    Apremilast was recently approved for the treatment of active psoriatic arthritis (PsA). However, no studies compare apremilast with methotrexate or biologic therapies, so its relative comparative efficacy remains unknown. This study compared the response rates and incremental costs per responder associated with methotrexate, apremilast, and biologics for the treatment of active PsA. A systematic literature review was performed to identify phase 3 randomized controlled clinical trials of approved biologics, methotrexate, and apremilast in the methotrexate-naïve PsA population. Using Bayesian methods, a network meta-analysis was conducted to indirectly compare rates of achieving a ≥20% improvement in American College of Rheumatology component scores (ACR20). The number needed to treat (NNT) and the incremental costs per ACR20 responder (2014 US$) relative to placebo were estimated for each of the therapies. Three trials (MIPA for methotrexate, PALACE-4 for apremilast, and ADEPT for adalimumab) met all inclusion criteria. The NNTs relative to placebo were 2.63 for adalimumab, 6.69 for apremilast, and 8.31 for methotrexate. Among methotrexate-naïve PsA patients, the 16 week incremental costs per ACR20 responder were $3622 for methotrexate, $26,316 for adalimumab, and $45,808 for apremilast. The incremental costs per ACR20 responder were $222,488 for apremilast vs. methotrexate. Among methotrexate-naive PsA patients, adalimumab was found to have the lowest NNT for one additional ACR20 response and methotrexate was found to have the lowest incremental costs per ACR20 responder. There was no statistical evidence of greater efficacy for apremilast vs. methotrexate. A head-to-head trial between apremilast and methotrexate is recommended to confirm this finding.

  19. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  20. Methotrexate in ocular manifestations of Behcet's disease: a longitudinal study up to 15 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davatchi, Fereydoun; Shams, Hormoz; Shahram, Farhad; Nadji, Abdolhadi; Chams-Davatchi, Cheyda; Sadeghi Abdollahi, Bahar; Faezi, Tahereh; Akhlaghi, Massoomeh; Ashofteh, Farimah

    2013-10-01

    Ocular manifestations of Behcet's disease (BD) need aggressive treatment to prevent severe loss of vision or blindness. Cytotoxic drugs are the main therapeutic agents and the first line treatment. Methotrexate is the least toxic, used mainly for posterior uveitis. We present here the outcome of eye lesions with methotrexate and prednisolone, in a longitudinal study of up to 15 years, on 682 patients (5447 eye-years of follow-up). Methotrexate was started at 7.5-15 mg/week. Prednisolone was added at 0.5 mg/kg/daily, then adjusted as needed. (i) fulfilling the International Criteria for Behcet's Disease; and (ii) having active posterior uveitis (PU). Visual acuity (VA) was calculated on a scale of 10. Activity indexes were calculated for PU and retinal vasculitis (RV) for each eye. Total Inflammatory Activity Index (TIAI) demonstrating the inflammatory index of both eyes of the patient, and Total Adjusted Disease Activity Index (TADAI) showing both TIAI + VA were also calculated. Overall results: the mean VA improvement was 0.4 (P < 001), PU 1.2 (P < 0.001) and RV 0.6 (P < 0.001). VA improved in 46.5%, PU in 75.4%, and RV in 53.7% of eyes. TIAI improved in 74% of patients and TADAI in 69.4%. VA was aggravated in 37.2%, PU in 11.1%, and RV in 30.3% of eyes. TIAI was aggravated in 17.4% and TADAI in 21.6% of the patients. The remaining kept their baseline values. All parameters improved, PU better than RV. Improvement of VA was the least, mainly due to secondary cataracts. © 2013 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  1. Serum Creatinine Versus Plasma Methotrexate Levels to Predict Toxicities in Children Receiving High-dose Methotrexate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Priya; Thomas, M K; Pathania, Subha; Dhawan, Deepa; Gupta, Y K; Vishnubhatla, Sreenivas; Bakhshi, Sameer

    2015-01-01

    Facilities for measuring methotrexate (MTX) levels are not available everywhere, potentially limiting administration of high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX). We hypothesized that serum creatinine alteration after HDMTX administration predicts MTX clearance. Overall, 122 cycles in 50 patients of non-Hodgkin lymphoma or acute lymphoblastic leukemia aged ≤18 years receiving HDMTX were enrolled prospectively. Plasma MTX levels were measured at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours; serum creatinine was measured at baseline, 24, 48, and 72 hours. Correlation of plasma MTX levels with creatinine levels and changes in creatinine from baseline (Δ creatinine) were evaluated. Plasma MTX levels at 72 hours showed positive correlation with serum creatinine at 48 hours (P = .011) and 72 hours (P = .013) as also Δ creatinine at 48 hours (P = .042) and 72 hours (P = .045). However, cut-off value of either creatinine or Δ creatinine could not be established to reliably predict delayed MTX clearance. Greater than 50% Δ creatinine at 48 and 72 hours significantly predicted grade 3/4 leucopenia (P = .036 and P = .001, respectively) and thrombocytopenia (P = .012 and P = .009, respectively) but not mucositis (P = .827 and P = .910, respectively). Delayed MTX elimination did not predict any grade 3/4 toxicity. In spite of demonstration of significant correlation between serum creatinine and Δ creatinine with plasma MTX levels at 72 hours, cut-off value of either variable to predict MTX delay could not be established. Thus, either of these cannot be used as a surrogate for plasma MTX estimation. Interestingly, Δ creatinine effectively predicted hematological toxicities, which were not predicted by delayed MTX clearance.

  2. Systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of leflunomide and methotrexate in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfaro-Lara, Roberto; Espinosa-Ortega, Hector Fabricio; Arce-Salinas, César Alejandro

    2017-08-31

    To assess the efficacy and side effects of methotrexate and leflunomide in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as the first disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical studies that included patients who took methotrexate, leflunomide, placebo or another DMARD for RA treatment. A systematic review yielded 1971 articles from databases; once completely reviewed, 73 trials that completed inclusion criteria were selected. In structured workshops for discussion and assessment of each article, 6 could be meta-analyzed for the primary and secondary outcomes: achievement of American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 and its core set components; and change of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-Di), liver enzyme aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase ratio, new gastrointestinal (GI) side effects and infections. A total of 1984 patients were included: 986 took leflunomide and 998 methotrexate. The probability of achieving ACR 20 had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74, 1.06) with a trend toward favoring methotrexate; reduction of the swollen joint count was greater for methotrexate: mean difference=0.82 (95%CI 0.24, 1.39); tender joint count, physician global assessment, HAQ-Di, and serum CRP levels revealed no significant difference between groups. Increased liver enzymes were more frequent in the leflunomide group, OR=0.38 (95%CI 0.27, 0.53), and new GI complaints were more common with methotrexate (OR=1.44; 95%CI 1.17, 1.79). There was no difference in the incidence of non-severe infections. Leflunomide used as the first DMARD in RA seemed to be as efficacious as methotrexate; only the reduction of swollen joint count was more marked for methotrexate. Leflunomide was linked to a greater increase in liver enzymes, but there were fewer GI complaints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de

  3. Failure Rate of Single Dose Methotrexate in Managment of Ectopic Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feras Sendy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. One of the treatment modalities for ectopic pregnancy is methotrexate. The purpose of this study is to identify the failure rate of methotrexate in treating patients with ectopic pregnancy as well as the risk factors leading to treatment failure. Methods. A retrospective chart review of 225 patients who received methotrexate as a primary management option for ectopic pregnancy. Failure of single dose of methotrexate was defined as drop of BHCG level less than or equal to 14% in the seventh day after administration of methotrexate. Results. 225 patients had methotrexate. Most of the patients (151 (67% received methotrexate based on the following formula: f 50 mg X body surface area. Single dose of methotrexate was successful in 72% (162/225 of the patients. 28% (63/225 were labeled as failure of single dose of methotrexate because of suboptimal drop in BhCG. 63% (40/63 of failure received a second dose of methotrexate, and 37% (23/63 underwent surgical treatment. Among patient who received initial dose of methotrexate, 71% had moderate or severe pain, and 58% had ectopic mass size of more than 4 cm on ultrasound. Conclusion. Liberal use of medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy results in 71% success rate.

  4. Failure rate of single dose methotrexate in managment of ectopic pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendy, Feras; AlShehri, Eman; AlAjmi, Amani; Bamanie, Elham; Appani, Surekha; Shams, Taghreed

    2015-01-01

    Background. One of the treatment modalities for ectopic pregnancy is methotrexate. The purpose of this study is to identify the failure rate of methotrexate in treating patients with ectopic pregnancy as well as the risk factors leading to treatment failure. Methods. A retrospective chart review of 225 patients who received methotrexate as a primary management option for ectopic pregnancy. Failure of single dose of methotrexate was defined as drop of BHCG level less than or equal to 14% in the seventh day after administration of methotrexate. Results. 225 patients had methotrexate. Most of the patients (151 (67%)) received methotrexate based on the following formula: f 50 mg X body surface area. Single dose of methotrexate was successful in 72% (162/225) of the patients. 28% (63/225) were labeled as failure of single dose of methotrexate because of suboptimal drop in BhCG. 63% (40/63) of failure received a second dose of methotrexate, and 37% (23/63) underwent surgical treatment. Among patient who received initial dose of methotrexate, 71% had moderate or severe pain, and 58% had ectopic mass size of more than 4 cm on ultrasound. Conclusion. Liberal use of medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy results in 71% success rate.

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. EFFICACY OF LOW-DOSE METHOTREXATE TREATMENT IN BIRDSHOT CHORIORETINOPATHY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rothova, Aniki; Ossewaarde-van Norel, Annette; Los, Leonoor I.; Berendschot, Tos T. J. M.

    Purpose: To ascertain the effect of treatment with methotrexate (MTX) on the visual prognosis of birdshot chorioretinopathy (BSCR). Methods: Retrospective case series of 76 consecutive patients with HLA-A29-positive BSCR, of whom 46 were followed for at least 5 years and 18 for longer than 10 years.

  4. Advances in individual prediction of methotrexate toxicity: a review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmiegelow, K.

    2009-01-01

    pathways. In the coming years pharmacogenomics is expected to change our approaches to individualised therapy with methotrexate. However, genetic polymorphisms affect the pharmacokinetics and dynamics of all the drugs a patient receive as well as the normal tissues tolerance to a given drug exposure. Thus...

  5. Methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis patients who are on hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hasani, Hasanein; Roussou, Euthalia

    2011-12-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) can be toxic to patients suffering from end stage renal disease (ESRD) on hemodialysis even at low doses. This increase in toxicity is more notable in terms of bone marrow suppression in the form of pancytopenia. Many methods of elimination including dialysis itself have been proven ineffective, and alternate treatments with anti-TNF alpha blockers can be considered.

  6. Efficacy of royal jelly on methotrexate-induced systemic oxidative ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this present study is to investigate the mucositis caused by methotrexate (MTX), as well as whether the application of royal jelly (RJ) has a protective effect on oxidative stress. This present study included six groups each consisted of 12 Wistar rats. Distilled water (po: peroral) was given to the 1st group as placebo ...

  7. Carrier-bound Methotrexate. IV. Antiproliferative Activity of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Polymeric conjugates of methotrexate (MTX) with macromolecular carriers, ... The water-soluble conjugates, crudely fractionated by aqueous dialysis, possess mass-average molecular masses in ..... for 20 h in an ice bath and another 3 h at room temperature. ... with excess Et2O-hexane (2:1) afforded a resinous product,.

  8. Effect of methotrexate combined with ginger, silymarin or propolis on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The present study was performed to evaluate the effect of three natural antioxidants on the adverse effect of methotrexate (MTX) in normal liver cells. TaqMan RT-PCR technology was used to estimate the mRNA expression levels for three genes after rats injection with a single dose of 20 mg/kg b.w MTX or the same MTX ...

  9. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  10. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  11. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  12. Uncertainty in dispersion forecasts using meteorological ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, H N; Leach, M J

    1999-01-01

    The usefulness of dispersion forecasts depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological forecasts hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological forecast, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble forecasts to estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts and the range of possible outcomes

  13. Methotrexate-induced intestinal mucositis delays gastric emptying and gastrointestinal transit of liquids in awake rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro M. G. Soares

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Methotrexate and other anticancer agents can induce intestinal mucositis, which is one of the most common limiting factor that prevent further dose escalation of the methotrexate. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the gastric emptying and gastrointestinal transit of liquids in methotrexate-induced intestinal mucositis. METHODS: Wistar rats received methotrexate (2.5 mg/kg/day for 3 days, subcutaneously or saline. After 1, 3 and 7 days, sections of duodenum, jejunum and ileum were removed for assessment of epithelial damage and myeloperoxidase activity (biochemical marker of granulocyte infiltration. Others rats were pre-treated with methotrexate or saline, gavage-fed after 3 or 7 days with a standard test liquid meal, and sacrificed 10, 20 or 30-min later. Gastric and small intestine dye recoveries were measured by spectrophotometry. RESULTS: After 3 days of methotrexate, there was an epithelial intestinal damage in all segments, with myeloperoxidase activity increase in both in duodenum and ileum. Seven days after methotrexate, we observed a complete reversion of this intestinal damage. There was an increase in gastric dye recoveries after 10, 20, and 30-min post-prandial intervals after 3 days, but not after 7 days, of methotrexate. Intestine dye recoveries were decreased in the first and second segments at 10 min, in the third at 20 min, and in the second and third at 30 min, only after 3 days of methotrexate treatment. CONCLUSION: Methotrexate-induced intestinal mucositis delays gastric emptying and gastrointestinal transit of liquids in awake rats.

  14. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  15. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  16. Methotrexate Associated Renal Impairment Is Related to Delayed Elimination of High-Dose Methotrexate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Long Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Methotrexate (MTX is an effective drug for the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, the toxicity remains a significant problem. In this prospective study, fifty-four patients with ALL were enrolled. 3 g or 5 g MTX/m2 was administered over 24 hours. Serum MTX concentrations were determined in 24, 48, and 96 hours after MTX infusion. Serum creatinine concentrations and creatinine clearance rate (CCR were determined before and 24 and 48 hours after MTX infusion. A total of 173 courses of MTX infusion were administered. The serum creatinine concentrations did not change much after MTX infusion while the CCR was gradually decreased. MTX clearance status was independently related to CCR decrease, with the risk of 8.07 to develop renal impairment in patients with delayed MTX elimination. Serum creatinine concentration, serum creatinine ratio, CCR, and CCR ratio at 24 hours were all related to MTX elimination delay. Patients with serum creatinine level >35.0 μmol/L, creatinine ratio >1.129, or CCR <100.0 mL/min were more likely to undergo MTX elimination delay. In conclusion, MTX could induce transient renal impairment and compromised renal function will delay MTX clearance. The serum creatinine concentration and the ratio and CCR are useful tools for evaluating MTX elimination status.

  17. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  18. Inadvertent yellow fever vaccination of a patient with Crohn's disease treated with infliximab and methotrexate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekenberg, C.; Friis-Møller, N.; Ulstrup, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    We present a case of a 56-year-old woman with Crohn's disease, treated with methotrexate and infliximab, who inadvertently received yellow fever vaccination (YFV) prior to a journey to Tanzania. She was not previously vaccinated against YF. YFV contains live-attenuated virus, and is contraindicated...... in patients treated with immunosuppressive drugs. Following vaccination, the patient fell ill with influenza-like illness. Elevated transaminase levels and YF viremia were detected. Despite being immunocompromised, the patient did not develop more severe adverse effects. Neutralising antibodies to YF virus...... were detected on day 14 following vaccination and remained protective at least 10 months after vaccination. Limited data is available on outcomes of YFV in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy, including biologics, and we report this case as a reminder of vigilance of vaccine recommendations...

  19. Successful management of heterotopic pregnancy after fetal reduction using potassium chloride and methotrexate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepika Deka

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Heterotopic pregnancy, the presence of two gestational sacs simultaneously, is a rare event but with the advent of Assisted Reproductive Technology, it is now an increasingly common complication. The reported incidence of a heterotopic pregnancy in a spontaneous cycle is quoted as 1 in 30,000. We report the case of a 38-year-old primigravida who was referred to our center at 11 + 2 weeks gestation with a diagnosis of heterotopic pregnancy for further management. A non-surgical intervention comprising of transvaginal ultrasound-guided potassium chloride and methotrexate into the cervical pregnancy resulted in a successful outcome. As an obstetrician, a high index of clinical suspicion and an early scan is mandatory to make a diagnosis of a heterotopic pregnancy and manage accordingly.

  20. Methotrexate-induced Pancytopenia in Two Patients with Renal Dysfunction

    OpenAIRE

    Yusuf OĞUZ; Tayfun EYİLETEN; Murat KARAMAN; Seyid Ahmet AY; Mahmut İlker YILMAZ

    2011-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is cleared primarily by renal excretion. The excretion of MTX is delayed in subjects with renal dysfunction and elevated plasma MTX concentrations develop which lead to bone marrow toxicities and possible pancytopenia. In this case report, we presented two advanced age patients with MTX-induced pancytopenia. The first patient on hemodialysis was diagnosed with seronegative arthritis while the second patient with congestive heart failure was diagnosed with rheumatoid arthrit...

  1. Intraocular levels of methotrexate after oral low-dose treatment in chronic uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puchta, Joachim; Hattenbach, Lars-Olof; Baatz, Holger

    2005-01-01

    To determine the intraocular levels of methotrexate in low-dose treatment of noninfectious uveitis. One day after oral administration, the methotrexate level was measured in the aqueous humor and serum of a patient with noninfectious uveitis, who underwent cataract surgery. A fluorescence polarization immunoassay was used for determination. After oral administration, methotrexate was only measurable in aqueous humor but not in serum. In uveitis, orally administered low-dose methotrexate reaches detectable levels in aqueous humor, even in the absence of detectable levels in serum. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Toxic corneal epitheliopathy after intravitreal methotrexate and its treatment with oral folic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorovoy, Ian; Prechanond, Tidarat; Abia, Maravillas; Afshar, Armin R; Stewart, Jay M

    2013-08-01

    To determine whether oral folic acid can ameliorate an iatrogenic, visually significant corneal epitheliopathy, which commonly occurs with intravitreal injections of methotrexate for the treatment of intraocular lymphoma. We report 2 cases of visually significant corneal epitheliopathy occurring after intravitreal injections of methotrexate for intraocular lymphoma. The first patient did not receive any treatment for the corneal disease, and the second patient with bilateral intraocular lymphoma received 1 mg of oral folic acid daily, a commonly used dosage for patients on systemic methotrexate. In the first patient without treatment, there was a complete regression of the corneal epithelial disease only when the frequency of intravitreal methotrexate was reduced from weekly to monthly as per a commonly used dosage regimen for methotrexate. In the second patient, the corneal disease improved 80% within 1 week of initiating oral folic acid for her eye already experiencing severe epitheliopathy during her weekly dosing regimen of methotrexate and also had significantly decreased epithelial disease in her second eye that started weekly intravitreal methotrexate several weeks after beginning oral folic acid. Currently, oral folic acid supplements are recommended for patients using systemic methotrexate to minimize drug toxicity. We suggest a similar use in patients undergoing intravitreal methotrexate injections to decrease toxic effects on the corneal epithelium.

  3. Interaction of methotrexate with trypsin analyzed by spectroscopic and molecular modeling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yanqing; Zhang, Hongmei; Cao, Jian; Zhou, Qiuhua

    2013-11-01

    Trypsin is one of important digestive enzymes that have intimate correlation with human health and illness. In this work, the interaction of trypsin with methotrexate was investigated by spectroscopic and molecular modeling methods. The results revealed that methotrexate could interact with trypsin with about one binding site. Methotrexate molecule could enter into the primary substrate-binding pocket, resulting in inhibition of trypsin activity. Furthermore, the thermodynamic analysis implied that electrostatic force, hydrogen bonding, van der Waals and hydrophobic interactions were the main interactions for stabilizing the trypsin-methotrexate system, which agreed well with the results from the molecular modeling study.

  4. Methotrexate in the treatment of peripheral arthritis in ulcerative colitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Scarpa

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate efficacy of methotrexate treatment in peripheral arthritis of ulcerative colitis. Methods: We studied 18 patients (10/8 M/F; mean age: 38.90 yrs; range: 21-65 yrs, with peripheral arthritis (14 with polyarticular, 4 with oligoarticular subset associate ulcerative colitis. Methotrexate 20 mg/week was administered in our patients, who were already receiving mesalazina for inflammatory bowel disease. At baseline, after 3 (T1, 6 (T2 and 12 months (T3 serological parameters (ESR and CRP, functional status (HAQ and disease activity (VAS, GH, Ritchie articular index were evaluated. Results: During the therapy a significant improvement was observed in disease activity, functional status and serological parameters since T1. ESR and CRP did not change at T2 and T3. Instead VAS, GH, Ritchie articular index and HAQ had a significant and gradual improvement from T1 to T3. Conclusion: Methotrexate treatment was efficacious in the treatment of peripheral arthritis associate ulcerative colitis. This drug induced improvement in disease activity, functional status and serological parameters after 3 months of therapy.

  5. Methotrexate for the Treatment of Thyroid Eye Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Strianese

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. To evaluate the efficacy of methotrexate for the treatment of thyroid eye disease (TED. Methods. 36 consecutive patients with active TED, previously treated with corticosteroids but stopped due to the occurrence of side effects, were commenced on methotrexate therapy. Two different weekly doses were administered depending on the weight of the patient (7.5 mg or 10 mg. Clinical activity score (7-CAS, visual acuity (VA, ocular motility, exophthalmos, and eyelid position were retrospectively evaluated at 3, 6, and 12 months and compared with baseline data. Results. There was a statistically significant improvement in 7-CAS at 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment (P<0.0001. There was no significant change in visual acuity. Ocular motility disturbances improved at 6 and 12 months (P<0.001. There was no significant change in exophthalmos (mean 24 mm, SD 3 mm or eyelid position (marginal reflex distance mean 6 mm, SD 1.5 mm during the follow-up period. No side effects were registered. Conclusions. Methotrexate therapy is effective in reducing CAS and ocular motility disturbances. No significant improvement in proptosis or eyelid retraction should be expected from this treatment. Eventually, it might be considered a suitable alternative treatment in TED for patients who cannot tolerate steroids.

  6. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  7. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  8. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  9. Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijkhuizen, Evert Hendrik Pieter; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Pluijm, Saskia M F; de Rotte, Maurits C F J; Vastert, Sebastiaan J; Kamphuis, Sylvia; de Jonge, Robert; Wulffraat, Nico M

    2015-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Despite its safety, MTX-related gastrointestinal adverse effects before and after MTX administration, termed MTX intolerance, occur frequently, leading to non-compliance and potentially premature MTX termination. The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to predict MTX intolerance. In a prospective JIA cohort, clinical variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were determined at MTX start. The Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score was employed to measure MTX intolerance in the first year of treatment. MTX intolerance was most prevalent at 6 or 12 months after MTX start, which was defined as the outcome for the prediction model. The model was developed in 152 patients using multivariable logistic regression analysis and subsequently internally validated using bootstrapping. The prediction model included the following predictors: JIA category, antinuclear antibody, parent/patient assessment of pain, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-27, thrombocytes, alanine aminotransferase and creatinine. The model classified 77.5% of patients correctly, and 66.7% of patients after internal validation by bootstrapping. The lowest predicted risk of MTX intolerance was 18.9% and the highest predicted risk was 85.9%. The prediction model was transformed into a risk score (range 0-17). At a cut-off of ≥6, sensitivity was 82.0%, specificity 56.1%, positive predictive value was 58.7% and negative predictive value 80.4%. This clinical prediction model showed moderate predictive power to detect MTX intolerance. To develop into a clinically usable tool, it should be validated in an independent cohort and updated with new predictors. Such an easy-to-use tool could then assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk to develop MTX intolerance, and in turn to monitor them closely and intervene timely in order to prevent the development of MTX intolerance

  10. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  11. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  12. Evidence-based recommendations for treatment with methotrexate in rheumatic disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Rintek; Faurschou, Mikkel; Loft, Anne Gitte

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop 3E (Evidence, Expertise, Exchange) recommendations (RCs) on the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders and to assess the agreement among Danish rheumatologists.......The aim of this study was to develop 3E (Evidence, Expertise, Exchange) recommendations (RCs) on the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders and to assess the agreement among Danish rheumatologists....

  13. Chromatic response of polydiacetylene vesicle induced by the permeation of methotrexate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Min Jae; Kim, Ye Jin; Kim, Jong-Duk

    2015-07-07

    The noble vesicular system of polydiacetylene showed a red shift using two types of detecting systems. One of the systems involves the absorption of target materials from the outer side of the vesicle, and the other system involves the permeation through the vesicular layers from within the vesicle. The chromatic mixed vesicles of N-(2-aminoethyl)pentacosa-10,12-diynamide (AEPCDA) and dimethyldioctadecylammonium chloride (DODAC) were fabricated by sonication, followed by polymerization by UV irradiation. The stability of monomeric vesicles was observed to increase with the polymerization of the vesicles. Methotrexate was used as a target material. The polymerized mixed vesicles having a blue color were exposed to a concentration gradient of methotrexate, and a red shift was observed indicating the adsorption of methotrexate on the polydiacetylene bilayer. In order to check the chromatic change by the permeation of methotrexate, we separated the vesicle portion, which contained methotrexate inside the vesicle, and checked chromatic change during the permeation of methotrexate through the vesicle. The red shift apparently indicates the disturbance in the bilayer induced by the permeation of methotrexate. The maximum contrast of color appeared at the equal molar ratio of AEPCDA and DODAC, indicating that the formation of flexible and deformable vesicular layers is important for red shift. Therefore, it is hypothesized that the system can be applicable for the chromatic detection of the permeation of methotrexate through the polydiacetylene layer.

  14. Review of dextromethorphan administration in 18 patients with subacute methotrexate central nervous system toxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshar, Maryam; Birnbaum, Daniel; Golden, Carla

    2014-06-01

    The pathogenesis of methotrexate central nervous system toxicity is multifactorial, but it is likely related to central nervous system folate homeostasis. The use of folinate rescue has been described to decrease toxicity in patients who had received intrathecal methotrexate. It has also been described in previous studies that there is an elevated level of homocysteine in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid of patients who had received intrathecal methotrexate. Homocysteine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor agonist. The use of dextromethorphan, noncompetitive N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor receptor antagonist, has been used in the treatment of sudden onset of neurological dysfunction associated with methotrexate toxicity. It remains unclear whether the dextromethorphan impacted the speed of recovery, and its use remains controversial. This study reviews the use of dextromethorphan in the setting of subacute methotrexate central nervous system toxicity. Charts of 18 patients who had sudden onset of neurological impairments after receiving methotrexate and were treated with dextromethorphan were reviewed. The use of dextromethorphan in most of our patients resulted in symptomatic improvement. In this patient population, earlier administration of dextromethorphan resulted in faster improvement of impairments and led to prevention of recurrence of seizure activity induced by methotrexate central nervous system toxicity. Our study provides support for the use of dextromethorphan in patients with subacute methotrexate central nervous system toxicity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Pancytopenia associated with low-dose methotrexate therapy – case reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Čeh

    2012-12-01

    Conclusions: With the increasing long-term use of methotrexate, it is important that patients should be monitored during treatment for haematological side-effects, as pancytopenia can be a late manifestation. Furthermore, more attention should be paid to risk factors predisposing hematological toxicity of methotrexate before commencing this drug

  16. Methotrexate-induced nonhealing cutaneous ulcers in a nonpsoriatic patient without pancytopenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkatesh Krishnamurthy Tekur

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Methotrexate forms one of the main drugs in the pharmacological management of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and some neoplastic diseases. Methotrexate rarely causes cutaneous ulceration and most cases are reported in patients with psoriasis and have been accompanied by pancytopenia. The author here reports occurrence of multiple (two cutaneous ulcers due to methotrexate in a nonpsoriatic patient. The patient was on methotrexate for seronegative rheumatoid arthritis for 10 years. To the best of the Author's knowledge, this is a rare case of cutaneous ulceration due to methotrexate in a nonpsoriatic patient reported in the literature so far, and probably one of its kind without pancytopenia or other hematological abnormalities. Stopping this medication led to complete healing of the ulcerated lesion in about four to six weeks.

  17. Efficacy of Methotrexate in patients with plaque type psoriasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haider, Sabiqa; Wahid, Zarnaz; Najam-us-Saher; Riaz, Farzana

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To assess the efficacy of Methotrexate in patients with plaque type psoriasis. Methods: This descriptive study was conducted in the department of Dermatology, Civil Hospital Karachi from September 2009 to March 2010. Seventy three patients between 18 to 50 years of age suffering from plaque type psoriasis with PASI score of >10 were included in the study after taking the informed consent. Oral methotrexate in a dose of 7.5 mg/week was given for 8 weeks. The data collected included demographic profile (age and gender), duration of disease, site of involvement, size of plaque, severity of plaque measured by Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score before starting the treatment and at the end of treatment. Efficacy was labeled with a PASI score of ≤5 at the end of 8 weeks. Results: Out of 73 patients there were 45 (61.6%) males and 28 (38.4%) females. The mean ±SD age was 40.0±12.6 years. The mean baseline PASI score showed clear and comparable improvement from a mean ± SD PASI score of 14.8±4.2 to 4.9±4.3.Twenty nine (40%) patients had an almost complete remission during the 8 weeks of treatment. Partial remission was achieved in 44 (60%) patients. The clearance time for psoriasis ranged from 5-7 weeks (mean 6±0.89 weeks). Conclusion: Treatment with methotrexate for chronic plaque psoriasis brings satisfactory disease control and improved quality of life. PMID:25225524

  18. Uncommon toxicity of low-dose methotrexate: case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Yousefi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Standard treatment of Gestational Trophoblastic Disease (GTD is chemotherapy. Single-agent chemotherapy regime including Methotrexate (MTX or Actinomycin. Single-agent is widely used in treatment of persistent trophoblastic disease. We reported an uncommon toxicity of low-dose single-agent methotrexate in a patient. Case Presentation: A 20-year-old woman, primary gravid after two months missed period and spotting with diagnosis of incomplete abortion with uterine size equivalent of ten weeks pregnancy (8-10 cm underwent evacuation curettage. In serial follow-up, based on rise of beta-hCG titer and absence of metastatic disease, it was categorized as low-risk persistent trophoblastic disease. She was referred to gynecology oncology center of Ghaem Hospital, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences in May 2014. Because of rise of beta-hCG titer, after complete metastatic work-up and lack of disease in other sites, persistent disease was diagnosed and candidate for chemotherapy (single agent low-dose. The patient received first course of therapy with MTX (50 mg/m², intra muscular. Unfortunately, after two days of treatment she developed uncommon severe toxicity, fever, severe nausea and vomiting, tachycardia, and generalized weakness. Also, we found hematologic abnormality (WBC: -14000-15000 µI, platelet- 540 µI and sever neutropenia, and abnormal rising in liver function test (SGOT, SGPT (three to four times and renal function test (BUN and Creatinine (two times. In addition, she had disseminated erosive lesion in all of body especially in face. Due to the fatal side effects of chemotherapy, she was admitted to intensive care unit (ICU. Fortunately, after two to three weeks, she was improved by conservative management. After few weeks beta-hCG titer was in normal limit. However she had normal serial beta-hCG in one year of follow-up. Conclusion: It is important to emphasis unpredictable side effects of chemotherapy with low

  19. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  20. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  1. Rapid, radiochemical-ligand binding assay for methotrexate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caston, J.D.

    1976-01-01

    A radiochemical ligand binding assay for methotrexate is provided. A binder factor comprising a partially purified dihydrofolic acid reductase preparation is employed. The binder factor is conveniently prepared by homogenizing a factor containing animal organ such as liver, and extracting with isotonic saline and ammonium sulfate. A binder cofactor, NADPH 2 , is also employed in the binding reaction. The procedure contemplates both direct and sequential assay techniques, and it is not interfered with by vast excesses of many natural folate derivatives. 12 claims, 6 drawing figures

  2. Anti-tumor Study of Chondroitin Sulfate-Methotrexate Nanogels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinyu; Zhao, Weibo; Chen, Haixiao; Qin, An; Zhu, Peizhi

    2017-10-01

    Self-assembly nanogels (NGs) were formed by bioconjugating methotrexate (MTX) with chondroitin sulfate (CS). MTX-CS NGs can greatly enhance the solubility and improve the delivery efficacy of MTX due to the CD44 binding property of CS. Vivo experiments revealed that MTX-CS NGs showed less toxicity than MTX. MTX-CS NGs can improve the anti-tumor effect while reducing the side effects of MTX. Due to their CD44 binding property, chondroitin sulfate-drug conjugates could be a promising and efficient platform for improving the solubility of sparingly soluble drug molecules as well as targeted delivery to cancer cells and tumor tissues.

  3. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  4. Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-12-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.

  5. Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941

  6. Efficacy and safety of tofacitinib monotherapy, tofacitinib with methotrexate, and adalimumab with methotrexate in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (ORAL Strategy): a phase 3b/4, double-blind, head-to-head, randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischmann, Roy; Mysler, Eduardo; Hall, Stephen; Kivitz, Alan J; Moots, Robert J; Luo, Zhen; DeMasi, Ryan; Soma, Koshika; Zhang, Richard; Takiya, Liza; Tatulych, Svitlana; Mojcik, Christopher; Krishnaswami, Sriram; Menon, Sujatha; Smolen, Josef S

    2017-07-29

    Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. The Oral Rheumatoid Arthritis triaL (ORAL) Strategy aimed to assess the comparative efficacy of tofacitinib monotherapy, tofacitinib plus methotrexate, and adalimumab plus methotrexate for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis in patients with a previous inadequate response to methotrexate. ORAL Strategy was a 1 year, double-blind, phase 3b/4, head-to-head, non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial in patients aged 18 years or older with active rheumatoid arthritis despite methotrexate therapy. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive oral tofacitinib (5 mg twice daily) monotherapy, oral tofacitinib (5 mg twice daily) plus methotrexate, or subcutaneous adalimumab (40 mg every other week) plus methotrexate at 194 centres in 25 countries. Eligible patients received live zoster vaccine at investigators' discretion. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients who attained an American College of Rheumatology response of at least 50% (ACR50) at month 6 in the full analysis set (patients who were randomly assigned to a group and received at least one dose of the study treatment). Non-inferiority between groups was shown if the lower bound of the 98·34% CI of the difference between comparators was larger than -13·0%. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02187055. 1146 patients received treatment (384 had tofacitinib monotherapy; 376 had tofacitinib and methotrexate; and 386 had adalimumab and methotrexate). At 6 months, ACR50 response was attained in 147 (38%) of 384 patients with tofacitinib monotherapy, 173 (46%) of 376 patients with tofacitinib and methotrexate, and 169 (44%) of 386 patients with adalimumab and methotrexate. Non-inferiority was declared for tofacitinib and methotrexate versus adalimumab and methotrexate (difference 2% [98·34% CI -6 to 11]) but not for tofacitinib monotherapy versus either adalimumab and methotrexate (-6

  7. Etanercept in methotrexate-resistant JIA-related uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Muhammad Usman; Raza, Syed Hamid; Goyal, Sudeshna; Cleary, Gavin; Newman, William David; Chandna, Arvind

    2014-01-01

    We report our results with systemic Etanercept in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis in a joint ophthalmology-rheumatology clinic at a tertiary hospital. Patients with JIA on Etanercept were identified from a dedicated uveitis database. A retrospective review of electronic and paper-based patient records was performed. Nine patients with JIA and current or previous treatment with Etanercept were identified, including six females and three males. Five patients with previous or current uveitis were noted. A further four were under observation for uveitis and required Etanercept for their joint disease. All nine patients had previously been taking Methotrexate, which had a suboptimal response in controlling arthritis or uveitis. Six out of nine patients did not show any uveitis activity at their last follow-up. Eyes of three patients still show signs of active inflammation in the anterior chamber (two on Etanercept and one off Etanercept). Severely impaired visual acuity (PL) was recorded in both eyes of one patient with long-standing persistent uveitis. Moderate visual loss in one eye of one patient was seen. The remaining seven patients did not show any significant loss of vision. Intraocular inflammation was not induced in any patient started on Etanercept. Etanercept may be useful in controlling JIA-related uveitis or arthritis in a pediatric patient when Methotrexate has had a suboptimal response in controlling the inflammatory activity.

  8. Collateral methotrexate resistance in cisplatin-selected murine leukemia cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhushan A.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Resistance to anticancer drugs is a major cause of failure of many therapeutic protocols. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. The exact mechanism depends upon the drug of interest as well as the tumor type treated. While studying a cell line selected for its resistance to cisplatin we noted that the cells expressed a >25,000-fold collateral resistance to methotrexate. Given the magnitude of this resistance we elected to investigate this intriguing collateral resistance. From a series of investigations we have identified an alteration in a membrane protein of the resistant cell as compared to the sensitive cells that could be the primary mechanism of resistance. Our studies reviewed here indicate decreased tyrosine phosphorylation of a protein (molecular mass = 66 in the resistant cells, which results in little or no transfer of methotrexate from the medium into the cell. Since this is a relatively novel function for tyrosine phosphorylation, this information may provide insight into possible pharmacological approaches to modify therapeutic regimens by analyzing the status of this protein in tumor samples for a better survival of the cancer patients.

  9. Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach

    OpenAIRE

    Henning Fischer; Marta García-Bárzana; Peter Tillmann; Peter Winker

    2012-01-01

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members' forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the ranges with the realized outcome. This paper proposes a new approach to forecast evaluation that takes account of the interval nature of projections. It is shown that using the conventional Mincer-Zarnowitz approach to ev...

  10. Forecasting in the presence of expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R.; Zivin, J. G.; Shrader, J.

    2016-05-01

    Physical processes routinely influence economic outcomes, and actions by economic agents can, in turn, influence physical processes. This feedback creates challenges for forecasting and inference, creating the potential for complementarity between models from different academic disciplines. Using the example of prediction of water availability during a drought, we illustrate the potential biases in forecasts that only take part of a coupled system into account. In particular, we show that forecasts can alter the feedbacks between supply and demand, leading to inaccurate prediction about future states of the system. Although the example is specific to drought, the problem of feedback between expectations and forecast quality is not isolated to the particular model-it is relevant to areas as diverse as population assessments for conservation, balancing the electrical grid, and setting macroeconomic policy.

  11. Comparing ultraviolet light A photo(chemo)therapy with Methotrexate protocol in childhood localized scleroderma: Evidence from systematic review and meta-analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrani, Edoardo; Foeldvari, Ivan; Lopez, Jordi Anton; Cimaz, Rolando; Simonini, Gabriele

    2018-03-14

    Localized scleroderma is a skin fibrosing disorder that, if untreated, may result in severe disability. The purpose of this systematic review is to compare the present evidence concerning the effectiveness of Methotrexate versus phototherapy, alone or associated with Psoralen, in childhood localized scleroderma. A systematic search between January 1996 and May 2017 was performed to identify studies investigating the efficacy of Methotrexate (MTX) or phototherapy (UVA) for treating localized scleroderma with onset ≤18 years. Due to a lack of validated clinical criteria, four clinical response criteria were used to assess the treatment efficacy as primary outcome. We determined a combined estimate of the proportion of children responding to MTX and UVA. A total of 19 studies was included (8 MTX; 11 UVA). In the methotrexate group, 193 children were included in the analysis; in the phototherapy group, a total of 48 treated children. For both groups age, disease subtype, glucocorticoids (GCs) use, and side effects of treatment were also analyzed. The meta-analysis suggested that UVA and MTX protocols have both a favorable effect in active lesions of childhood localized scleroderma. However, MTX resulted significantly superior to UVA, with or without Psoralen. Our study supports the combination of MTX and GCs in patients with a high risk of complication. Phototherapy with UVA1 could represent a therapeutic option in patients with limited scleroderma, where lesions do not cross joints and they do not lead to potential cosmetic changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Nanoparticles of Conjugated Methotrexate-Human Serum Albumin: Preparation and Cytotoxicity Evaluations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azade Taheri

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Methotrexate-human serum albumin conjugates were developed by a simple carbodiimide reaction. Methotrexate-human serum albumin conjugates were then crosslinked with 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl carbodiimide HCl (EDC to form nanoparticles. The size of nanoparticles determined by laser light scattering and TEM was between 90–150 nm. Nanoparticles were very stable at physiologic conditions (PBS pH 7.4, 37∘C and after incubation with serum. The effect of amount of EDC used for crosslinking on the particle size and free amino groups of nanoparticles was examined. The amount of crosslinker showed no significant effect on the size of nanoparticles but free amino groups of nanoparticles were decreased by increasing the crosslinker. The physicochemical interactions between methotrexate and human serum albumin were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC. Nanoparticles were more cytotoxic on T47D cells compared to free methotrexate. Moreover, methotrexate-human serum albumin nanoparticles decreased the IC50 value of methotrexate on T47D cells in comparison with free methotrexate.

  13. Nanoparticles of Conjugated Methotrexate-Human Serum Albumin: Preparation and Cytotoxicity Evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taheri, A.; Atyabi, F.; Nouri, F.S.; Ahadi, F.; Derakhshan, M.A.; Dinarvand, R.; Atyabi, F.; Ghahremani, M.H.; Ostad, S.N.; Dinarvand, R.; Amini, M.; Ghahremani, M.H.; Ostad, S.N.; Mansoori, P.

    2011-01-01

    Methotrexate-human serum albumin conjugates were developed by a simple carbodiimide reaction. Methotrexate-human serum albumin conjugates were then crosslinked with 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl) carbodiimide HCl (EDC) to form nanoparticles. The size of nanoparticles determined by laser light scattering and TEM was between 90 150 nm. Nanoparticles were very stable at physiologic conditions (PBS pH 7.4, 37 degree C) and after incubation with serum. The effect of amount of EDC used for crosslinking on the particle size and free amino groups of nanoparticles was examined. The amount of cross linker showed no significant effect on the size of nanoparticles but free amino groups of nanoparticles were decreased by increasing the cross linker. The physicochemical interactions between methotrexate and human serum albumin were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Nanoparticles were more cytotoxic on T 47 D cells compared to free methotrexate. Moreover, methotrexate-human serum albumin nanoparticles decreased the C50 value of methotrexate on T 47 D cells in comparison with free methotrexate.

  14. Accuracy of Methotrexate Use in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients in Emanuel Klampok Hospital based on Explicit Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizki Puspitasari

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Methotrexate (MTX is the first line therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (RA as an antiinflammatory and immunosuppressant agent. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of MTX in patients with rheumatoid arthritis at Emanuel Klampok Hospital based on criteria, including the indication, process indicators, complication, and outcome indicators. The medical record from 13 inpatients and 27 outpatients who used MTX were compared with the criteria. The results of this study demonstrated that all of the patients had appropriately indications to use MTX. Patients with risk factors that lead to GI disorders, hepatotoxicity, and bone marrow toxicity were 35 patients, 19 patients, and 15 patients respectively. There were 32 patients used MTX with the correct dosage, meanwhile incorrect dosage was showed in 3 patients with ClCr 61–80 mL/minute, 2 patients with ClCr 51–60 mL/minute, 1 patient with ClCr 10–50 mL/minute, and 2 patients with SGPT >3 normal value. The interaction with NSAID was happened in 35 patients and the interaction with hepatotoxicity agents in 19 patients. Complication occurred in 7 patients with effects that occur were GI disorders and 1 patient with chirrosis. There were 10 patients with clinical complaints reduced and 2 patients with the better condition. Indication of use MTX had appropriately, but process indicators, complication, and outcome indicators still not appropriate.

  15. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  16. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  17. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  18. Yellow fever vaccine used in a psoriatic arthritis patient treated with methotrexate: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuhec, Matej

    2014-01-01

    The yellow fever vaccines on the market are contraindicated for immunocompromised and elderly patients. A case of yellow fever vaccine used in a 27-year-old Slovenian male with psoriatic arthritis during treatment with methotrexate is described. We demonstrate a positive case, since there were no adverse effects in concurrent administration of yellow fever vaccine and methotrexate. This patient did not show severe adverse reactions and did not contract yellow fever despite potential exposure. More research is needed on possible adverse effects of concurrent administration of yellow fever vaccine and methotrexate to determine the potential of this method for more frequent use.

  19. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  20. Induction therapy with adalimumab plus methotrexate for 24 weeks followed by methotrexate monotherapy up to week 48 versus methotrexate therapy alone for DMARD-naive patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: HIT HARD, an investigator-initiated study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detert, Jacqueline; Bastian, Hans; Listing, Joachim; Weiß, Anja; Wassenberg, Siegfried; Liebhaber, Anke; Rockwitz, Karin; Alten, Rieke; Krüger, Klaus; Rau, Rolf; Simon, Christina; Gremmelsbacher, Eva; Braun, Tanja; Marsmann, Bettina; Höhne-Zimmer, Vera; Egerer, Karl; Buttgereit, Frank; Burmester, Gerd-R

    2013-06-01

    To investigate the long-term effects of induction therapy with adalimumab (ADA) plus methotrexate (MTX) in comparison with placebo (PBO) plus MTX in DMARD-naïve patients with active early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Patients with active early RA (disease duration of ≤12 months) were randomly assigned to receive 40 mg ADA subcutaneously every other week (eow) plus MTX 15 mg/week subcutaneously or PBO plus MTX subcutaneously at 15 mg/week over 24 weeks. Thereafter, all patients received MTX monotherapy up to week 48. The primary outcome was the Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) at week 48. Secondary outcomes included proportions of patients in remission (DAS28Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score and radiographic progression. 87 patients were assigned to ADA/MTX and 85 patients to PBO/MTX. At baseline, DAS28 was 6.2±0.8 in the ADA/MTX and 6.3±0.9 in the PBO/MTX groups. At week 24, treatment with ADA/MTX compared with PBO/MTX resulted in a greater reduction in DAS28 (3.0±1.2 vs 3.6±1.4; p=0.009) and other secondary outcomes such as DAS28 remission rate (47.9% vs 29.5%; p=0.021) and HAQ (0.49±0.6 vs 0.72±0.6; p=0.0014). At week 48, the difference in clinical outcomes between groups was not statistically significant (DAS28: 3.2±1.4 vs 3.4±1.6; p=0.41). Radiographic progression at week 48 was significantly greater in patients administered PBO/MTX (Sharp/van der Heijde score: ADA/MTX 2.6 vs PBO/MTX 6.4; p=0.03, Ratingen score: 1.7 vs 4.2; p=0.01). A greater reduction in radiographic progression after initial combination therapy with ADA and MTX was seen at week 48, even after discontinuation of ADA treatment at week 24. This sustained effect was not found at the primary endpoint (DAS28 reduction).

  1. A Preliminary Study of Grade Forecasting by Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    This experiment enabled undergraduate business students to better assess their progress in a course by quantitatively forecasting their own end-of-course grades. This innovation provided them with predictive feedback in addition to the outcome feedback they were already receiving. A total of 144 students forecast their grades using an…

  2. Systemic methotrexate to treat ectopic pregnancy does not affect ovarian reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oriol, Bárbara; Barrio, Ana; Pacheco, Alberto; Serna, José; Zuzuarregui, José Luis; Garcia-Velasco, Juan A

    2008-11-01

    To evaluate whether methotrexate (MTX) compromises ovarian reserve and future reproductive outcome in women undergoing assisted reproductive technology (ART), when it is used as first-line treatment for ectopic pregnancy (EP). Prospective, observational study. University-affiliated private IVF unit. Twenty-five women undergoing IVF-ICSI who were treated with MTX (1 mg/kg IM) for an EP after ART. Evaluation of reproductive outcome and serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. Serum AMH was evaluated before administering MTX and >or=1 week after the resolution of the EP. Reproductive outcome was evaluated by comparing subsequent IVF-ICSI cycles after EP resolution. Serum AMH levels, cycle length, gonadotropin dose required, peak serum E(2) level, oocytes collected, and embryos obtained. Serum AMH levels before MTX were not statistically significantly different from those after treatment (3.7 +/- 0.3 ng/mL vs. 3.9 +/- 0.3 ng/mL). Patients undergoing a subsequent cycle after systemic treatment for EP had similar cycle durations (10.3 vs. 10.8 d), gonadotropin requirements (2,775 vs. 2,630.3 IU), peak E(2) levels (1,884.3 vs. 1,523.6 pg/mL), number of oocytes retrieved (12.1 vs. 10.5), and total number of embryos obtained (7.1 vs. 6.5). Single-dose MTX is a safe first-treatment choice that does not compromise future reproductive outcomes in women who are diagnosed with EP after ART.

  3. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  4. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  5. Laser-assisted delivery of topical methotrexate - in vitro investigations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taudorf, Elisabeth Hjardem

    2016-01-01

    of the correlation between laser parameters and tissue effects was used to deliver methotrexate (MTX) topically through microscopic ablation zones (MAZs) of precise dimensions. MTX is a well-known chemotherapeutic and anti-inflammatory drug that may cause systemic adverse effects, and topical delivery is thus......Ablative fractional lasers (AFXL) are increasingly used to treat dermatological disorders and to facilitate laser-assisted topical drug delivery. In this thesis, laser-tissue interactions generated by stacked pulses with a miniaturized low-power 2,940 nm AFXL were characterized (study I). Knowledge...... zones of varying thickness. The ratio of skin deposition versus transdermal permeation was constant, regardless of MAZ depth. Impact of transport kinetics on AFXL-assisted topical MTX delivery: MTX accumulated rapidly in AFXL-processed skin. MTX was detectable in mid-dermis after 15 min. and saturated...

  6. Adverse effects of methotrexate in three psoriatic arthritis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maejima, Hideki; Watarai, Akira; Nakano, Toshiaki; Katayama, Chieko; Nishiyama, Hiromi; Katsuoka, Kensei

    2014-04-01

    Methotrexate, a folic acid analogue with anti-proliferative and anti-inflammatory effects, is commonly used to treat patients with severe destructive psoriatic arthritis and has considerable efficacy. Combined anti-tumor necrosis factor and MTX therapy result in less treatment discontinuation due to adverse events. Despite its efficacy, MTX may result in adverse effects including hepatic, pulmonary, and renal toxicity as well as lymphoproliferative disorders and predisposition to infection. We herein report rare adverse effects of MTX treatment, specifically asymptomatic pulmonary tuberculosis, renal cell carcinoma, and lateral uveitis, in three psoriatic arthritis patients treated with MTX. MTX is an important drug for the treatment for psoriatic arthritis patient, but an awareness of the possible adverse effects is needed.

  7. Methotrexate: the emerging drug of choice for serious rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salach, R H; Cash, J M

    1994-01-01

    The recently recognized high morbidity and unexpected mortality associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has spurred new interest in more aggressive, early treatment of this disease. Methotrexate (MTX) has rapidly become the rheumatologist's drug of choice for serious RA because of its favorable efficacy to toxicity ratio and rapid onset of action compared with other second-line agents. The initial concerns about hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in psoriatic patients has subsided somewhat as long-term liver toxicity data are accumulating in patients with RA. Routine liver biopsy with incremental doses of MTX is no longer recommended. Potential for severe lung, hematologic, and infectious complications exists, mandating careful monitoring of RA patients taking MTX.

  8. Fast analysis procedure of radiochemical coordinat uptake for methotrexate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caston, J.D.; Kamen, B.A.

    1976-01-01

    Under this invention, a radio-chemical analysis is submitted to determine the concentration of methotrexate or its equivalents in analysis in a biological medium. The amounts taken up of the labelled compound and the known concentrations of the unlabelled compound to be determined are radio-isotopically related to a first system containing a pre-determined amount of the labelled compound and a pre-determined amount of the unlabelled compound. In a second system, identical to the first, save that the sample of the biological medium to be analyzed takes the place of the unlabelled compound, the amount of labelled compound taken up is determined radio-isotopically. The concentration of the compound in the sample is then determined by correlation of the labelled compound uptake determined in the second system with the relation determined in the first system. The radio-isotopic relations and determinations may be made by direct and sequential analytical techniques [fr

  9. Neurologic sequelae of methotrexate and ionizing radiation: a new classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleyer, W.A.

    1981-01-01

    Therapy for prevention of central nervous system (CNS) leukemia has had a dramatic effect on disease-free survival in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Now, a majority of children may be in complete remission indefinitely, having completed therapy years ago. Unfortunately, some of these long-term survivors have residual neurologic dysfunction, varying in severity from the not uncommon occurrence of mild intellectual deficit to the fortunately rare instance of debilitating leukoencephalopathy. To help identify inciting factors and ultimately render CNS prophylaxis less neurotoxic, this article attempts to categorize the types of neurotoxicities reported in patients treated with methotrexate (MTX) and ionizing radiation. A variety of clinical syndromes are described and related temporally to these treatment modalities. Analyzed in this way, combinations including CNS irradiation appear to be the most neurotoxic. The safest methods are the single modalities, of which high-dose iv MTX may be the least neurotoxic

  10. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  11. Pharmacology and optimization of thiopurines and methotrexate in inflammatory bowel disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coskun, Mehmet; Steenholdt, Casper; de Boer, Nanne K.

    2016-01-01

    Improving the efficacy and reducing the toxicity of thiopurines and methotrexate (MTX) have been areas of intense basic and clinical research. An increased knowledge on pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics of these immunomodulators has optimized treatment strategies in inflammatory bowel disease...

  12. Effect of minimal enteral feeding on recovery in a methotrexate-induced gastrointestinal mucositis rat model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiken, Nicoline S. S.; Rings, Edmond H. H. M.; Havinga, Rick; Groen, Albert K.; Tissing, Wim J. E.

    Patients suffering from gastrointestinal mucositis often receive parenteral nutrition as nutritional support. However, the absence of enteral nutrition might not be beneficial for the intestine. We aimed to determine the feasibility of minimal enteral feeding (MEF) administration in a methotrexate

  13. HER2 specific delivery of methotrexate by dendrimer conjugated anti-HER2 mAb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Rameshwer; Thomas, Thommey P; Desai, Ankur M; Kotlyar, Alina; Park, Steve J; Baker, James R Jr

    2008-01-01

    Herceptin, a humanized monoclonal antibody that binds to human growth factor receptor-2 (HER2), was covalently attached to a fifth-generation (G5) polyamidoamine dendrimer containing the cytotoxic drug methotrexate. The specific binding and internalization of this conjugate labeled with FITC was clearly demonstrated in cell lines overexpressing HER2 by flow cytometry as well as confocal microscopic analysis. In addition, binding and uptake of antibody conjugated dendrimers was completely blocked by excess non-conjugated herceptin. The dendrimer conjugate was also shown to inhibit the dihydrofolate reductase with similar activity to methotrexate. Co-localization experiments with lysotracker red indicate that antibody conjugate, although internalized efficiently into cells, has an unusually long residence time in the lysosome. Somewhat lower cytotoxicity of the conjugate in comparison to free methotrexate was attributed to the slow release of methotrexate from the conjugate and its long retention in the lysosomal pocket

  14. Selective sparing of goblet cells and paneth cells in the intestine of methotrexate-treated rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Verburg (Melissa); I.B. Renes (Ingrid); H.P. Meijer; J.A. Taminiau; H.A. Büller (Hans); A.W.C. Einerhand (Sandra); J. Dekker (Jan)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractProliferation, differentiation, and cell death were studied in small intestinal and colonic epithelia of rats after treatment with methotrexate. Days 1-2 after treatment were characterized by decreased proliferation, increased apoptosis, and decreased numbers and depths

  15. Transporter-mediated interaction of indican and methotrexate in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiuan-Pey Lin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Indican (indoxyl-β-D-glucoside is present in several Chinese herbs e.g. Isatis indigotica, Polygonum tinctorium and Polygonum perfoliatum. The major metabolite of indican was indoxyl sulfate (IS, an uremic toxin which was a known substrate/inhibitor of organic anion transporter (OAT 1, OAT 3 and multidrug resistance-associated protein (MRP 4. Methotrexate (MTX, an important immunosuppressant with narrow therapeutic window, is a substrate of OAT 1, 2, 3, 4 and MRP 1, 2, 3, 4. We hypothesized that IS, the major metabolite of oral indican, might inhibit the renal excretion of MTX mediated by OAT 1, OAT 3 and MRP 4. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of oral indican on the pharmacokinetics of MTX. Rats were orally given MTX with and without indican (20.0 and 40.0 mg/kg in a parallel design. The serum MTX concentration was determined by a fluorescence polarization immunoassay. For mechanism clarification, phenolsulfonphthalein (PSP, 5.0 mg/kg, a probe substrate of OAT 1, OAT 3, MRP 2 and MRP 4, was intravenously given to rats with and without a intravenous bolus of IS (10.0 mg/kg to measure the effect of IS on the elimination of PSP. The results indicated that 20.0 and 40.0 mg/kg of oral indican significantly increased the area under concentration–time curve0-t (AUC0-t of MTX by 231% and 259%, prolonged the mean residence time (MRT by 223% and 204%, respectively. Furthermore, intravenous IS significantly increased the AUC0-t of PSP by 204% and decreased the Cl by 68%. In conclusion, oral indican increased the systemic exposure and MRT of MTX through inhibition on multiple anion transporters including OAT 1, OAT 3 and MRP 4 by the major metabolite IS. Keywords: Indican, Indoxyl sulfate, Methotrexate, Anion transporters, Pharmacokinetics

  16. Adalimumab plus Methotrexate for Uveitis in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanan, Athimalaipet V; Dick, Andrew D; Jones, Ashley P; McKay, Andrew; Williamson, Paula R; Compeyrot-Lacassagne, Sandrine; Hardwick, Ben; Hickey, Helen; Hughes, Dyfrig; Woo, Patricia; Benton, Diana; Edelsten, Clive; Beresford, Michael W

    2017-04-27

    Adalimumab, a fully human anti-tumor necrosis factor α monoclonal antibody, is effective in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). We tested the efficacy of adalimumab in the treatment of JIA-associated uveitis. In this multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we assessed the efficacy and safety of adalimumab in children and adolescents 2 years of age or older who had active JIA-associated uveitis. Patients who were taking a stable dose of methotrexate were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive either adalimumab (at a dose of 20 mg or 40 mg, according to body weight) or placebo, administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks. Patients continued the trial regimen until treatment failure or until 18 months had elapsed. They were followed for up to 2 years after randomization. The primary end point was the time to treatment failure, defined according to a multicomponent intraocular inflammation score that was based on the Standardization of Uveitis Nomenclature criteria. The prespecified stopping criteria were met after the enrollment of 90 of 114 patients. We observed 16 treatment failures in 60 patients (27%) in the adalimumab group versus 18 treatment failures in 30 patients (60%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12 to 0.49; Ptreatment failure than placebo among children and adolescents with active JIA-associated uveitis who were taking a stable dose of methotrexate. Patients who received adalimumab had a much higher incidence of adverse events and serious adverse events than those who received placebo. (Funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme and Arthritis Research UK; SYCAMORE EudraCT number, 2010-021141-41 .).

  17. Methotrexate: an effective monotherapy for refractory generalized morphea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Platsidaki E

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Eftychia Platsidaki, Vassiliki Tzanetakou, Anargyros Kouris, Panagiotis G Stavropoulos Department of Dermatology and Venereology, Andreas Syggros Hospital, University of Athens, Athens, Greece Introduction: Morphea is an inflammatory skin disorder characterized by excessive collagen deposition. Although treatment algorithms for morphea subtypes have been suggested, no consistent recommendations are available. This study attempts to evaluate the clinical efficacy of methotrexate (MTX as monotherapy in refractory generalized morphea. Methods: It is a retrospective study, including 20 patients who had already been treated with various topical and systemic therapies with minimal clinical improvement. Patients received orally MTX at a of dosage 15 mg once weekly. Duration of the use, dosage of MTX, and adverse events were recorded. Clinical assessment of skin lesions was performed and documented. Results: The mean disease duration was 27 months before the initiation of MTX treatment. After 12 months of therapy, very good response was achieved in 6 patients (30%, good response in 10 patients (50%, and fair response in 2 patients (10%, while 2 patients (10% had failed treatment. Patients were followed up for a mean time interval of 21 months. No serious adverse event was recorded. Conclusion: MTX has been already proved to be an effective and well-tolerated treatment in pediatric patients with morphea. The majority of the group of adult patients showed very good and good improvement when treated with MTX. Although this is an uncontrolled study, MTX monotherapy was considered a safe and effective treatment for the management of this specific clinical subset of morphea in adults. Keywords: methotrexate, adults, generalized morphea

  18. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  19. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  20. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  1. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  2. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  3. Forecast Collaboration in Grocery Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aastrup, Jesper; Gammelgaard, Britta

    -requisites, degree of forecast collaboration, demand related contingency factors and outcomes/KPIs based. The hypotheses are tested in a survey among Danish grocery suppliers. The survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of collaborative orientation and retailer competencies and trustworthiness...

  4. Yellow fever vaccine used in a psoriatic arthritis patient treated with methotrexate: a case report:

    OpenAIRE

    Štuhec, Matej

    2014-01-01

    The yellow fever vaccines on the market are contraindicated for immunocompromised and elderly patients. A case of yellow fever vaccine used in a 27-year-old Slovenian male with psoriatic arthritis during treatment with methotrexate is described. We demonstrate a positive case, since there were noadverse effects in concurrent administration of yellow fever vaccine and methotrexate. This patient did not show severe adverse reactions and did not contract yellow fever despite potential exposure. ...

  5. Yellow fever vaccine used in a psoriatic arthritis patient treated with methotrexate

    OpenAIRE

    Štuhec, Matej

    2015-01-01

    The yellow fever vaccines on the market are contraindicated for immunocompromised and elderly patients. A case of yellow fever vaccine used in a 27-year-old Slovenian male with psoriatic arthritis during treatment with methotrexate is described. We demonstrate a positive case, since there were noadverse effects in concurrent administration of yellow fever vaccine and methotrexate. This patient did not show severe adverse reactions and did not contract yellow fever despite potential exposure. ...

  6. Comparing the effects of tofacitinib, methotrexate and the combination, on bone marrow oedema, synovitis and bone erosion in methotrexate-naive, early active rheumatoid arthritis: results of an exploratory randomised MRI study incorporating semiquantitative and quantitative techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conaghan, Philip G.; Ostergaard, Mikkel; Bowes, Michael A.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To explore the effects of tofacitinib-an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-with or without methotrexate (MTX), on MRI endpoints in MTX-naive adult patients with early active RA and synovitis in an index wrist or hand. METHODS: In this exploratory......, phase 2, randomised, double-blind, parallel-group study, patients received tofacitinib 10 mg twice daily + MTX, tofacitinib 10 mg twice daily + placebo (tofacitinib monotherapy), or MTX + placebo (MTX monotherapy), for 1 year. MRI endpoints (Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials RA MRI score...... differences in RAMRIS bone marrow oedema (BME) at month 6 were -1.55 (90% CI -2.52 to -0.58) for tofacitinib + MTX and -1.74 (-2.72 to -0.76) for tofacitinib monotherapy (both ptofacitinib + MTX...

  7. Consensus Guideline for Use of Glucarpidase in Patients with High-Dose Methotrexate Induced Acute Kidney Injury and Delayed Methotrexate Clearance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramsey, Laura B; Balis, Frank M; O'Brien, Maureen M

    2018-01-01

    Acute kidney injury due to high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX) is a serious, life-threatening toxicity that can occur in pediatric and adult patients. Glucarpidase is a treatment approved by the Food and Drug Administration for high methotrexate concentrations in the context of kidney dysfunction...... is above 30 µM, 42-hour concentration is above 10 µM, or 48-hour concentration is above 5 µM and the serum creatinine is significantly elevated relative to the baseline measurement (indicative of HDMTX-induced acute kidney injury), glucarpidase may be indicated. After a 36- to 42-hour HDMTX infusion......: Glucarpidase is a rarely used medication that is less effective when given after more than 60 hours of exposure to high-dose methotrexate, so predicting early which patients will need it is imperative. There are no currently available consensus guidelines for the use of this medication. The indication...

  8. Methotrexate encephalopathy: Two cases in adult cancer patients, who recovered with pathophysiologically based therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shodeinde A Coker

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/Objectives: Neurotoxicity is a serious and sometimes fatal adverse effect that can occur following methotrexate treatment. We describe two adult patients with hematological malignancies with methotrexate encephalopathy who recovered with dextromethorphan therapy. Results: Case 1: A 24-year-old male with acute lymphoblastic leukemia developed the acute onset of bilateral facial weakness and slurred speech after his first treatment with high-dose intravenous methotrexate. The clinical scenario and a head magnetic resonance imaging supported a diagnosis of methotrexate encephalopathy. Treatment with dextromethorphan was coincident with recovery. Case 2: A 65-year-old female with recurrent diffuse large B-cell lymphoma was treated with high-dose intravenous methotrexate. Two weeks after a cycle, she developed hypoactive delirium, marked lethargy, ocular ataxia, and a right-sided facial weakness. Within 2 days of starting dextromethorphan, there was improvement with clinical recovery. Conclusions: These two cases suggest that N-methyl d-aspartate receptor activation by homocysteine may play an important role in the pathogenesis of methotrexate neurotoxicity.

  9. Methotrexate: an option for preventing the recurrence of acute anterior uveitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Fernández, S; García-Aparicio, A M; Hidalgo, M V; Platero, M; Schlincker, A; Bascones, M L; Pombo, M; Morente, P; Sanpedro, J; Martín-Mola, E

    2009-05-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of methotrexate (MTX) in preventing the recurrence of acute anterior uveitis (AAU). This prospective, open, longitudinal study included patients from June 2002 to March 2005 who had either three or more episodes of AAU in the previous year, or a recurrence of AAU within 3 months before starting the trial. We excluded uveitis of infectious origin, masquerade syndromes, and patients with contraindications to MTX. The response criteria were defined as an absence of symptoms and the presence of a normal ophthalmologic examination. The study outcome compared the number of flare-ups of uveitis over an MTX-treated for 1 year to the number of flare-ups of the same group during the previous year without MTX. A total of 571 patients with uveitis were evaluated during the period of the study, and 10 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. One patient refused the treatment, and nine completed the study. The mean number of recurrences in the pre-MTX year was 3.4 (SD: 0.52), which was significantly reduced to 0.89 (SD: 1.17) in the year of treatment (P=0.011). MTX treatment seems to reduce the number of flare-ups in patients with recurrent AAU.

  10. Plasma MicroRNA Profiles in Patients with Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Responding to Adalimumab plus Methotrexate vs Methotrexate Alone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sode, Jacob; Krintel, Sophine B; Carlsen, Anting Liu

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to identify plasma (i.e., cell-free) microRNA (miRNA) predicting antitumor necrosis and/or methotrexate (MTX) treatment response in patients enrolled in an investigator-initiated, prospective, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial (The OPERA study, NCT00660647). METHODS......: We included 180 disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naive patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) randomized to adalimumab (ADA; n = 89) or placebo (n = 91) in combination with MTX. Plasma samples before and 3 months after treatment initiation were analyzed for 91 specific mi...... multivariate miRNA models were able to predict response to ADA treatment after 3 and 12 months, with 63% and 82% area under the ROC curves, respectively. CONCLUSION: We identified miR-27a-3p as a potential predictive biomarker of ACR/EULAR remission in patients with early RA treated with ADA in combination...

  11. Successful Management of Tubal Ectopic Pregnancy with Transvaginal Sonography Guided Intracardiac KCL Injection and Systemic Methotrexate - A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumesh Choudhary

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Methotrexate (Mtx is an accepted modality for conservative treatment of ectopic pregnancy. However, there is no consensus regarding its use in live ectopic pregnancy and high serum beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG titres. Concurrent use of intra-sac hypertonic KCl, to produce cardiac asystole with systemic Mtx potentially improve outcome in live ectopic gestations with very high serum β-hCG titres. Here a successful management of live ectopic pregnancy in a 25-year-old nulliparous woman, with very high β-hCG titres (29502.04mIU/mL, using ultrasound-guided intra-cardiac potassium chloride (KCl injection and systemic Mtx is reported. No treatment related complications were encountered. However, individualized treatment with a stringent follow-up regime is mandatory in such cases.

  12. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  13. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  14. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  15. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  16. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  17. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  18. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  19. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  20. The combined application of biological therapy and methotrexate in case of escape phenomenon progressing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ponich E.S.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: the study of the efficacy of methotrexate in patients with the "escape effect" during the ustekinumab therapy. Materials and Methods. The results of methotrexate at a dose of 15-20mg/week in treatment of 4 patients receiving biologic and developed "escape effect". Ustekinumab is used as a hypodermic injection at a dose of 45 mg for a body weight of a patient no more than 100 kg, and 90 mg of body weight over 100 kg, at the zero week, the 4th week and then every 12 weeks. Patients control meets the standard management of patients in biological therapy. Results. The study shows that in the case of the resistance progressing when applying preparations of biological therapy, methotrexate is useful at a dose of 15-20mg/week for up to 6 months. The combined use of biologic therapy and methotrexate in the treatment of patients with psoriasis vulgaris, "escape effect" contributes to the marked regression of clinical symptoms and allows to control the process long enough, which is confirmed by the dynamics of the index PASI, BRS and DLQI. The combined method is highly safe, as evidenced by the lack of inhibition of hematopoiesis, the normal level of hepatic transaminases and serum creatinine, which greatly improves patient compliance in this type of therapy. Conclusion. The article presents the data of the combined application of biological medication therapy (ustekinumab and methotrexate for the treatment of patients with the common form of psoriasis vulgaris. In the case of the development of resistance of biological therapy recommended the appointment of methotrexate. The combined use of methotrexate and biologic therapy in the treatment of patients with psoriasis vulgaris contributes to marked regression of clinical symptoms and allows to control the process for a long time.

  1. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  2. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  3. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  4. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  5. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  6. In vivo anti-psoriatic activity, biodistribution, sub-acute and sub-chronic toxicity studies of orally administered methotrexate loaded chitin nanogel in comparison with methotrexate tablet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panonnummal, Rajitha; Jayakumar, R; Anjaneyan, Gopikrishnan; Sabitha, M

    2018-04-15

    The anti-psoriatic efficacy of orally administered methotrexate loaded chitin nanogel (MCNG) was evaluated (two doses- 2.715 mg/kg and 5.143 mg/kg) and compared against orally administered methotrexate tablet MTX (5.143 mg/kg). MCNG at both dose levels of 2.715 mg/kg and 5.143 mg/kg exhibited significant anti-psoriatic activity which is very much comparable with MTX, caused normalization of histological features and inflammatory score associated with induced psoriasis. Biodistribution studies revealed the presence of drug in serum and in vital organs at all the three cases with highest amount in MCNG at 5.143 mg/kg dose, followed by MTX tablet and are lowest in MCNG at 2.715 mg/kg dose. MCNG at the highest dose of 5.143 mg/kg caused liver, lung and kidney toxicities on sub acute toxicity studies and MTX tablet was found to be toxic on liver and lung on sub chronic toxicity studies. MCNG 2.715 mg/kg was found to be safe on both sub acute and sub chronic administrations, suggesting that it can provide sufficient serum and tissue level of methotrexate necessary to clear psoriatic lesions, without inducing systemic toxicity and expected to be a better alternative for orally administered conventional methotrexate tablet for patients who need systemic medications for psoriasis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Intraocular methotrexate in the treatment of uveitis and uveitic cystoid macular edema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Simon R J; Habot-Wilner, Zohar; Pacheco, Patricio; Lightman, Sue L

    2009-04-01

    A pilot study to evaluate the use of intravitreal methotrexate (MTX) for the treatment of uveitis and uveitic cystoid macular edema (CME). Prospective, consecutive, interventional case series. Fifteen eyes of 15 patients with a unilateral exacerbation of noninfectious intermediate, posterior uveitis, or panuveitis and/or CME such that visual acuity (VA) was 20/40 or worse, together with a history of increased intraocular pressure (IOP) in response to corticosteroid administration. Intravitreal injection of 400 microg in 0.1 ml MTX. The primary outcome measure was VA (using the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study chart). Other outcome measures included ocular inflammation scores, time to relapse, levels of systemic corticosteroid and immunosuppressive therapy, and ocular coherence tomography. Potential complications of intravitreal MTX injection, including cataract progression, vitreous hemorrhage, retinal detachment, and corneal epitheliopathy, were assessed. VA improved at all time points and was statistically significant at the 3- and 6-month follow-up examinations. The mean visual improvement was 4 lines at 3 months and 4.5 lines at 6 months, with no statistical difference between the best VA obtained after MTX injection and after previous corticosteroid treatment, including intravitreal triamcinolone acetate injection. Five patients relapsed after a median of 4 months; a similar improvement was seen after re-injection. Ocular inflammation scores improved at all time points, and systemic immunosuppressive medication was reduced in 3 of 7 patients taking this at the start of the trial. In patients with uveitis and uveitic CME, intravitreal MTX can improve VA and reduce CME and, in some patients, allows the reduction of immunosuppressive therapy. Relapse occurs at a median of 4 months in some patients, but reinjection has similar efficacy.

  8. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  9. A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamlook, Rustum; Badran, Omar; Abdulhadi, Emad

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes

  10. Modifications in Lipid Levels Are Independent of Serum TNF-α in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results of an Observational 24-Week Cohort Study Comparing Patients Receiving Etanercept Plus Methotrexate or Methotrexate as Monotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Alejandra Rodriguez-Jimenez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To compare the modifications in lipids between patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA receiving etanercept plus methotrexate (ETA + MTX versus methotrexate (MTX and their relationship with serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α. Methods. In an observational cohort study, we compared changes in lipid levels in patients receiving ETA + MTX versus MTX in RA. These groups were assessed at baseline and at 4 and 24 weeks, measuring clinical outcomes, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and TNF-α. Results. Baseline values for lipid levels were similar in both groups. HDL-C levels increased significantly only in the ETA + MTX group (from 45.5 to 50.0 mg/dL at 4 weeks, a 10.2% increase, P<0.001, and to 56.0 mg/dL at 24 weeks, a 25.1% increase, P<0.001, while other lipids underwent no significant changes. ETA + MTX also exhibited a significant increase in TNF-α (44.8 pg/mL at baseline versus 281.4 pg/mL at 24 weeks, P<0.001. The MTX group had no significant changes in lipids or TNF-α. Significant differences in HDL-C between groups were observed at 24 weeks (P=0.04 and also in TNF-α  (P=0.01. Conclusion. HDL-C levels increased significantly following treatment with ETA + MTX, without a relationship with decrease of TNF-α.

  11. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  12. Pure methotrexate encephalopathy presenting with seizures: CT and MRI features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loevblad, K.O.; Kelkar, P.; Ozdoba, C.; Remonda, L.; Schroth, G. [Department of Neuroradiology, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Inselspital, University of Bern, CH-3010 Bern (Switzerland); Ramelli, G. [Department of Pediatrics, Inselspital, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland)

    1998-02-01

    With the advent of chemotherapy, mortality rates in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have decreased, but complications in the central nervous system have appeared. These include direct involvement of the brain itself and the development of chemotherapy-related encephalopathy as a delayed reaction. In most reported cases, this encephalopathy is believed to be due to necrotising angiitis arising from the combination of chemotherapy with adjuvant radiotherapy. We report the cases of four children with ALL who had been treated with high-dose intravenous and intrathecal chemotherapy but no radiation therapy, and who were admitted to hospital because of seizures. CT of the brain revealed the presence of diffuse periventricular white matter hypodensities in all cases and subcortical hyperdense foci in three cases. MRI showed diffuse hyperintense white matter lesions on T2-weighted images in all four patients; hypointense changes were observed on susceptibility-sensitive FLASH sequences in the hyperdense foci seen on CT as well as changes that were hyperintense on T1-weighted images. It was, therefore, concluded that the lesions corresponded to a leukoencephalopathy with calcific deposits. These findings are of a pure form of methotrexate encephalopathy causing seizures. (orig.) With 2 figs., 17 refs.

  13. Methotrexate and epirubicin conjugates as potential antitumor drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Wojciech Kmiecik

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The use of hybrid molecules has become one of the most significant approaches in new cytotoxic drug design. This study describes synthesis and characterization of conjugates consisting of two well-known and characterized chemotherapeutic agents: methotrexate (MTX and epirubicin (EPR. The synthesized conjugates combine two significant anticancer strategies: combinatory therapy and targeted therapy. These two drugs were chosen because they have different mechanisms of action, which can increase the anticancer effect of the obtained conjugates. MTX, which is a folic acid analog, has high cytotoxic properties and can serve as a targeting moiety that can reach folate receptors (FRs overexpresing tumor cells. Combination of nonselective drugs such as EPR with MTX can increase the selectivity of the obtained conjugates, while maintaining the high cytotoxic properties.Materials and methods: Conjugates were purified by RP-HPLC and the structure was investigated by MS and MS/MS methods. The effect of the conjugates on proliferation of LoVo, LoVo/Dx, MCF-7 and MV-4-11 human cancer cell lines was determined by SRB or MTT assay.Results: The conjugation reaction results in the formation of monosubstituted (α, γ and disubstituted MTX derivatives. In vitro proliferation data demonstrate that the conjugates synthesized in our study show lower cytotoxic properties than both chemotherapeutics used alone.Discussion: Epirubicin cytotoxicity was not observed in obtained conjugates. Effective drugs release after internalization needs further investigation.

  14. Methotrexate treatment provokes apoptosis of proliferating keratinocyte in psoriasis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elango, Tamilselvi; Thirupathi, Anand; Subramanian, Swapna; Ethiraj, Purushoth; Dayalan, Haripriya; Gnanaraj, Pushpa

    2017-08-01

    Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease characterized by hyper proliferation of keratinocytes. Recent data show that the epidermis thickening in psoriasis may be related to imbalance of homeostasis caused by abnormal apoptotic process. Maintenance of keratinocyte apoptotic process is very important in psoriasis. Methotrexate (MTX) has been used for many years to restore the normal skin in psoriasis condition. However, the exact mechanism of MTX in psoriasis condition is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to examine the role of MTX on keratinocyte apoptosis pathway in psoriasis patients. A total of 58 psoriasis vulgaris patients were recruited for this study. Nonlesional skin biopsies served as control. Skin biopsies of psoriatic patients were collected and analyzed for cytosolic, mitochondria and total cytochrome c by ELISA. Expression of caspase-9, NFκBp65, pAkt1 by western blot, real-time PCR and immunohistochemical analysis of c-FLIP protein was analyzed in nonlesional and lesional skin biopsies before (day 0) and after (at the end of 6 and 12 weeks) MTX treatment. After MTX treatment, a significant increase in cytochrome c was observed when compared with before MTX treatment in psoriasis patients (p psoriasis by controlling the acanthosis.

  15. Microwave hyperthermia enhancement of methotrexate absorption in rat brains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, J.C.; Yuen, M.K.; Jung, D.T.

    1987-01-01

    The author studied enhanced absorption of methotrexate (MTX) in brains of male Wistar (10 weeks old, 500g) subjected to microwave hyperthermia. The rat was anesthetized using 40 mg/kg of sodium pentobarbital, IP and was placed in a stereotaxic head holder. Microwave energy (2450 MHz, 2.6 W/cm/sup 2/, CW) were applied directly to the left side of the rat's head by a coaxial applicator for 20 min. The body temperature was kept at 37.8 0 C. The brain temperature recorded in a similar group of animals using a Vitek probe was about 45 0 C. Three different MTX dosages, 50, 100 and 200 mg/kg, were injected intravenously immediately following microwave irradiation into three groups of rats in 1.5, 3 and 6 min., respectively. MTX was allowed to circulate for five min. before brains were removed for analysis. Standard HPLC procedures were applied to samples from anterior and posterior left hemisphere of the cerebrum, and the cerebellum. Samples from the right hemisphere were used for controls. The average absorption at the posterior left hemisphere was found to be 2.4, 9.6 and 12.4μg of MTX/g of brain tissue for 50, 100 and 200 mg/kg, respectively. These results indicate that MTX absorption is significantly increased in rat brains subjected to microwave hyperthermia treatment

  16. Pure methotrexate encephalopathy presenting with seizures: CT and MRI features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loevblad, K.O.; Kelkar, P.; Ozdoba, C.; Remonda, L.; Schroth, G.; Ramelli, G.

    1998-01-01

    With the advent of chemotherapy, mortality rates in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have decreased, but complications in the central nervous system have appeared. These include direct involvement of the brain itself and the development of chemotherapy-related encephalopathy as a delayed reaction. In most reported cases, this encephalopathy is believed to be due to necrotising angiitis arising from the combination of chemotherapy with adjuvant radiotherapy. We report the cases of four children with ALL who had been treated with high-dose intravenous and intrathecal chemotherapy but no radiation therapy, and who were admitted to hospital because of seizures. CT of the brain revealed the presence of diffuse periventricular white matter hypodensities in all cases and subcortical hyperdense foci in three cases. MRI showed diffuse hyperintense white matter lesions on T2-weighted images in all four patients; hypointense changes were observed on susceptibility-sensitive FLASH sequences in the hyperdense foci seen on CT as well as changes that were hyperintense on T1-weighted images. It was, therefore, concluded that the lesions corresponded to a leukoencephalopathy with calcific deposits. These findings are of a pure form of methotrexate encephalopathy causing seizures. (orig.)

  17. Radiolabeling, biodistribution and tumor imaging of stealth liposomes containing methotrexate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, N; Arulsudar, N; Chuttani, K; Mishra, P; Sharma, R.K; Murthy, R.S.R

    2003-01-01

    To study the utility of sterically stabilized liposomes (stealth liposomes) in tumor scintigraphy by studying its biodistribution and accumulation in target tissue after radiolabeling with Technetium-99m (99mTC). Conventional and Stealth liposomes were prepared by lipid film hydration method using methotrexate as model anticancer drug. Radiolabeling of the liposomes was carried out by direct labeling using reduced 99mTc. Experimental conditions for maximum labeling yield were optimized. The stability studies were carried out to check binding strength of the radiolabeled complexes. The blood kinetic study was carried out in rabbits after giving the labeled complex by intravenous administration through ear vein. The biodistribution studies were carried out in the Ehrlich ascites tumor (EAT) bearing mice after intravenous administration through tail vein, showed prolonged circulation in blood and significant increase in the accumulation in tumor for the sterically stabilized liposomes compared to the conventional liposomes. The gamma scintigraphic image shows the distribution of the stealth liposomes in liver, spleen, kidney and tumor. The study gives precise idea about the use of stealth liposomes in tumor scintigraphy and organ distribution studies (Au)

  18. Evaluation of the Efficacy of Combined Therapy of Methotrexate and Etanercept versus Methotrexate as a Mono-Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rexhepi, Sylejman; Rexhepi, Mjellma; Rexhepi, Blerta; Sahatçiu-Meka, Vjollca; Mahmutaj, Vigan

    2018-05-20

    This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of Methotrexate (MTX) alone and combined therapy with Etanercept (ETN) and Methotrexate in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In the randomised control study, conducted in the period from March 2014 until March 2016, we evaluated the efficacy of the treatment of patients with RA with MTX as monotherapy and combination treatment with MTX and ETN. In the Clinic of Rheumatology in Prishtina, 90 adult patients with RA were treated in combination with ETN (doses of 50 mg subcutaneously/weekly), with oral MTX (doses up to 20 mg weekly), and MTX alone (doses up to 20 mg weekly) during this period of two years. Clinical response was assessed using European League against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Criteria and the Disease Activity Score (DAS28). Radiographic changes were measured in the beginning and at the end of the study using Larsen's method. Of the cohort groups of 90 patients, mean age of 55.63, 15 patients, (16.6 %) were treated with combined therapy (ETN plus MTX) and 75 patients (83.3%) with monotherapy (MTX). After two years of treatment the group with combined therapy resulted with improvement of acute phase reactants as erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) for the first hour (41.1 vs. 10.3 mm/hour) and C - reactive protein (CRP) (40.8 vs. 6 mg/liter), and compared to the group treated with monotherapy, there were no significant changes (ESR: 45.7 vs 34.3 mm/hour; CRP: 48 vs 24 mg/liter). Before the treatment, the severity of the disease was high, wherein the group with combined therapy DAS28 was 5.32, compared to the monotherapy group whom DAS28 was 5.90. After 2 years of treatment, we had significant changes in the results of DAS28, wherein the group treated with ETN plus MTX DAS28 was 2.12 ± 0.15, while in the group of patients treated with MTX DAS28 were 3.75 ± 0.39 (t = 13.03; df = 58; p < 0.0001). The group with combined therapy showed no evidence of radiographic

  19. Microbubbles coupled to methotrexate-loaded liposomes for ultrasound-mediated delivery of methotrexate across the blood–brain barrier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang X

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Xiang Wang,1 Ping Liu,1 Weixiao Yang,1 Lu Li,1 Peijing Li,2 Zheng Liu,1 Zhongxiong Zhuo,1 Yunhua Gao1 1Department of Ultrasound, Xinqiao Hospital of the Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, 2Department of Ultrasound, General Hospital of the Jinan Military Area, Jinan, People’s Republic of China Abstract: Methotrexate (MTX is the single most effective agent for the treatment of primary central nervous system lymphoma. Currently, the delivery of MTX to the brain is achieved by high systemic doses, which cause severe long-term neurotoxicity, or intrathecal administration, which is highly invasive and may lead to infections or hemorrhagic complications. Acoustically active microbubbles have been developed as drug carriers for the noninvasive and brain-targeted delivery of therapeutics. However, their application is limited by their low drug-loading capacity. To overcome this limitation, we prepared microbubbles coupled to MTX-loaded liposomes using ZHIFUXIAN, a novel type of microbubbles with a superior safety profile and long circulation time. MTX-liposome-coupled microbubbles had a high drug-loading capacity of 8.91%±0.86%, and their size (2.64±0.93 µm in diameter was suitable for intravenous injection. When used with ultrasound, they showed more potent in vitro cytotoxicity against Walker-256 cancer cells than MTX alone or MTX-loaded liposomes. When Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to sonication, administration of these MTX-liposome-coupled microbubbles via the tail vein led to targeted disruption of the blood–brain barrier without noticeable tissue or capillary damage. High-performance liquid chromatography analysis of the brain MTX concentration showed that MTX delivery to the brain followed the order of MTX-liposome-coupled microbubbles + ultrasound (25.3±2.4 µg/g > unmodified ZHIFUXIAN + MTX + ultrasound (18.6±2.2 µg/g > MTX alone (6.97±0.75 µg/g > MTX-liposome-coupled microbubbles (2.92±0.39 µg/g. Therefore

  20. Methotrexate intolerance in oral and subcutaneous administration in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a cross-sectional, observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijkhuizen, E H Pieter; Pouw, Juliëtte N; Scheuern, Andrea; Hügle, Boris; Hardt, Sven; Ganser, Gerd; Kümmerle-Deschner, Jasmin Beate; Horneff, Gerd; Holzinger, Dirk; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Wulffraat, Nico M

    2016-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is the cornerstone disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). In Dutch patients, MTX intolerance occurred frequently and was associated with subcutaneous (SC) administration. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of MTX intolerance and its association with the route of administration in a German cohort of JIA patients. A cross-sectional study of JIA patients on MTX was performed. Primary outcome was MTX intolerance, which was determined using the validated Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score (MISS) questionnaire. The prevalence of gastrointestinal adverse effects and MTX intolerance was compared between patients on MTX SC and MTX administered orally (PO). Of 179 JIA patients on MTX, 73 (40.8%) were intolerant. The odds of MTX intolerance were higher in patients using MTX exclusively SC compared to exclusively PO (adjusted odds ratio 3.37 [95% confidence interval 1.19-10.0]). There was strong evidence that the former experienced more behavioural complaints (76.1% vs. 47.4%, p=0.001) and weak evidence that they experienced more abdominal pain after MTX intake (43.5% vs. 27.4%, p=0.056). The prevalence of MTX intolerance was high and exclusively SC administration of MTX was associated with MTX intolerance and behavioural adverse effects. The prevalence of gastrointestinal adverse effects was at least as high as in patients on MTX PO. The frequently held assumption that SC causes fewer side effects than PO seems unwarranted. Definite answers about the differences between SC and PO administration with respect to safety and efficacy should be obtained by randomised trials.

  1. Development and optimization of methotrexate-loaded lipid-polymer hybrid nanoparticles for controlled drug delivery applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahir, Nayab; Madni, Asadullah; Balasubramanian, Vimalkumar; Rehman, Mubashar; Correia, Alexandra; Kashif, Prince Muhammad; Mäkilä, Ermei; Salonen, Jarno; Santos, Hélder A

    2017-11-25

    Lipid-polymer hybrid nanoparticles (LPHNPs) are emerging platforms for drug delivery applications. In the present study, methotrexate loaded LPHNPs consisted of PLGA and Lipoid S100 were fabricated by employing a single-step modified nanoprecipitation method combined with self-assembly. A three factor, three level Box Behnken design using Design-Expert ® software was employed to access the influence of three independent variables on the particle size, drug entrapment and percent drug release. The optimized formulation was selected through numeric optimization approach. The results were supported with the ANOVA analysis, regression equations and response surface plots. Transmission electron microscope images indicated the nanosized and spherical shape of the LPHNPs with fair size distribution. The nanoparticles ranged from 176 to 308nm, which increased with increased polymer concentration. The increase in polymer and lipid concentration also increased the drug entrapment efficiency. The in vitro drug release was in range 70.34-91.95% and the release mechanism follow the Higuchi model (R 2 =0.9888) and Fickian diffusion (n<0.5). The in vitro cytotoxicity assay and confocal microscopy of the optimized formulation demonstrate the good safety and better internalization of the LPHNPs. The cell antiproliferation showed the spatial and controlled action of the nanoformulation as compared to the plain drug solution. The results suggest that LPHNPs can be a promising delivery system envisioned to safe, stable and potentially controlled delivery of methotrexate to the cancer cells to achieve better therapeutic outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Methotrexate treatment in progressive tubal ectopic pregnancies and hCG-related clinicosurgical implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Askin Dogan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Our aim was to evaluate the relationship between the success of methotrexate treatment and β-hCG levels in progressive tubal ectopic pregnancies. We defined a retrospective cohort of 394 progressive tubal ectopic pregnancy patients treated with methotrexate. A single-dose methotrexate protocol using 50 mg/m2 was administered to patients with progressive tubal ectopic pregnancy. Surgery was performed in patients who exhibited signs of acute abdomen due to tubal rupture. Of 394 patients that received methotrexate treatment, 335 (84.6% responded to medical treatment, while the remaining 59 (15.36% underwent surgery due to treatment failure. β-hCG levels in the failure group were significantly higher as compared with the success group at Day 1, Day 4, and Day 7 (2116±3157 vs. 4178±3422, 2062±3551 vs. 4935±4103, and 1532±3007 vs. 3900±4783, respectively. The receiver operating characteristics curve for β-hCG levels at Day 1 was 0.738, with a cutoff value of 1418 mIU/mL, while sensitivity and specificity values reached the optimum for treatment success (83.1% and 59.4%, respectively. Medical treatment with methotrexate achieved an 85.02% success rate for the treatment of progressive tubal ectopic pregnancy, while success rates for medical treatment decreased significantly when initial β-hCG levels were >1418 mIU/mL.

  3. Fractional model for pharmacokinetics of high dose methotrexate in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popović, Jovan K.; Spasić, Dragan T.; Tošić, Jela; Kolarović, Jovanka L.; Malti, Rachid; Mitić, Igor M.; Pilipović, Stevan; Atanacković, Teodor M.

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study is to promote a model based on the fractional differential calculus related to the pharmacokinetic individualization of high dose methotrexate treatment in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, especially in high risk patients. We applied two-compartment fractional model on 8 selected cases with the largest number (4-19) of measured concentrations, among 43 pediatric patients received 24-h methotrexate 2-5 g/m2 infusions. The plasma concentrations were determined by fluorescence polarization immunoassay. Our mathematical procedure, designed by combining Post's and Newton's method, was coded in Mathematica 8.0 and performed on Fujicu Celsius M470-2 PC. Experimental data show that most of the measured values of methotrexate were in decreasing order. However, in certain treatments local maximums were detected. On the other hand, integer order compartmental models do not give values which fit well with the observed data. By the use of our model, we obtained better results, since it gives more accurate behavior of the transmission, as well as the local maximums which were recognized in methotrexate monitoring. It follows from our method that an additional test with a small methotrexate dose can be suggested for the fractional system parameter identification and the prediction of a possible pattern with a full dose in the case of high risk patients. A special feature of the fractional model is that it can also recognize and better fit an observed non-monotonic behavior. A new parameter determination procedure can be successfully used.

  4. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  5. Extended duration of prehydration does not prevent nephrotoxicity or delayed drug elimination in high-dose methotrexate infusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Torben Stamm; Mamoudou, Aissata Diop; Tuckuviene, Ruta

    2014-01-01

    Alkalized hydration is used as supportive care to prevent renal toxicity during infusions with high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX). In children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the hydration is commonly initiated 4 hours before start of the methotrexate (MTX) infusion. To test if longer durati...

  6. Multinational evidence-based recommendations for the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders with a focus on rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visser, K; Katchamart, W; Loza, E

    2009-01-01

    the work-up before initiating methotrexate, optimal dosage and route, use of folic acid, monitoring, management of hepatotoxicity, long-term safety, mono versus combination therapy and management in the perioperative period and before/during pregnancy. One recommendation concerned methotrexate as a steroid...

  7. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  8. [Effect of IV hydration with sodium bicarbonate on high-dose methotrexate disposition kinetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuda, N; Goto, M; Konishi, H; Yamashina, H

    1984-04-01

    Following two-compartment kinetic analysis, the effect of loading of transfusion with sodium bicarbonate on methotrexate disposition was investigated in 13 cases with malignant tumor, being treated with high-dose methotrexate. The mean values of total body clearance, when administered at doses 50 mg and 100 mg per kg body weight, were 0.369 and 0.402 (l/h) per kg, respectively. No significant relationship was observed between alpha value and total amount of transfusion, of urine or dosage of sodium bicarbonate. The other kinetic parameters on elimination, beta value, K10 and total body clearance, did not also correlate with those values described above. These results suggest that the elimination profile of methotrexate show linear kinetics, and that massive administration of transfusion with sodium bicarbonate be not necessary if pH value of urine exceeds 7.0.

  9. Hypoxia-induced resistance to doxorubicin and methotrexate in human melanoma cell lines in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanna, K; Rofstad, E K

    1994-07-15

    Rodent cell lines can develop resistance to doxorubicin and methotrexate during hypoxic stress. This has so far not been observed in human tumor cell lines. The purpose of our communication is to show that doxorubicin and methotrexate resistance can also develop in human melanoma cells during exposure to hypoxia. Four cell lines (BEX-c, COX-c, SAX-c, WIX-c) have been studied. Cells were exposed to hypoxia (O2 concentration WIX-c. BEX-c and SAX-c were sensitive to methotrexate without hypoxia pre-treatment, whereas COX-c and WIX-c were resistant initially. Hypoxia-induced drug resistance was present immediately after reoxygenation and tended to decrease with time but remained statistically significant even 42 hr after reoxygenation.

  10. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  11. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  12. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  13. Affinity labeling of the folate-methotrexate transporter from Leishmania donovani

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, J.T.; Ullman, B.

    1989-01-01

    An affinity labeling technique has been developed to identify the folate-methotrexate transporter of Leishmania donovani promastigotes using activated derivatives of the ligands. These activated derivatives were synthesized by incubating folate and methotrexate with a 10-fold excess of 1-ethyl-3-[3-(dimethylamino)propyl]carbodiimide (EDC) for 10 min at ambient temperature in dimethyl sulfoxide. When intact wild-type (DI700) Leishmania donovani or preparations of their membranes were incubated with a 0.4 μM concentration of either activated [ 3 H]folate or activated [ 3 H]methotrexate, the radiolabeled ligands were covalently incorporated into a polypeptide with a molecular weight of approximately 46,000, as demonstrated by SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. No affinity labeling of a 46,000-dalton protein was observed when equimolar concentrations of activated radiolabeled ligands were incubated with intact cells or membranes prepared from a methotrexate-resistant mutant clone of Leishmania donovani, MTXA5, that is genetically defective in folate-methotrexate transport capability. Time course studies indicated that maximal labeling of the 46,000-dalton protein occurred within 5-10 min of incubation of intact cells with activated ligand. These studies provide biochemical evidence that the folate-methotrexate transporter of Leishmania donovani can be identified in crude extracts by an affinity labeling technique and serve as a prerequisite to further analysis of the transport protein by providing a vehicle for subsequent purification of this membrane carrier. Moreover, these investigations suggest that the affinity labeling technique using EDC-activated ligands may be exploitable to analyze other cell surface binding proteins in Leishmania donovani, as well as in other organisms

  14. Interferon versus methotrexate in intermediate uveitis with macular edema: results of a randomized controlled clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackensen, Friederike; Jakob, Eva; Springer, Christina; Dobner, Bianca C; Wiehler, Ute; Weimer, Petra; Rohrschneider, Klaus; Fiehn, Christoph; Max, Regina; Storch-Hagenlocher, Brigitte; Becker, Matthias D

    2013-09-01

    To compare interferon (IFN) beta with methotrexate (MTX) in the treatment of intermediate uveitis with macular edema. Monocentric, prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trial. Specialized uveitis center at the University of Heidelberg. PATIENT OR STUDY POPULATION: Patients with either primary intermediate uveitis or uveitis associated with multiple sclerosis. MAIN INCLUSION CRITERIA: Visual acuity of 20/30 or worse (0.2 logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution) and macular edema of more than 250 μm (central 1-mm in optical coherence tomography; Stratus). Randomization into either IFN beta 44 μg subcutaneously 3 times weekly or 20 mg MTX subcutaneously once weekly. At 3 months, the primary outcome parameter of mean change in visual acuity was evaluated and efficacy was determined. Secondary parameters were macular edema by optical coherence tomography, inflammatory activity, and retinal sensitivity by microperimetry (MP-1; Nidek). In case of treatment failure, switching to the other treatment arm was possible. Nineteen patients were included. Ten were randomized to MTX, and 9 were randomized to IFN beta. At 3 months, visual acuity improved a mean 0.31 logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution (range, -0.02 to -0.96, 15.6 letters on the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study chart) in the IFN beta group versus a mean 0.09 logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution (range, 0.12 to -0.38, 4.7 letters) in the MTX arm (P = .0435, Mann-Whitney U test). Macular thickness decreased by a mean of 206 μm (range, -41 to -416 μm) in the IFN arm, but increased by 47 μm (range, 108 to -28 μm) in the MTX group (P treatment of macular edema in the setting of intermediate uveitis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Synergistic activity of curcumin with methotrexate in ameliorating Freund's Complete Adjuvant induced arthritis with reduced hepatotoxicity in experimental animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banji, David; Pinnapureddy, Jyothi; Banji, Otilia J F; Saidulu, A; Hayath, Md Sikinder

    2011-10-01

    Methotrexate is employed in low doses for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. One of the major drawbacks with methotrexate is hepatotoxicity resulting in poor compliance of therapy. Curcumin is an extensively used spice possessing both anti-arthritic and hepatoprotective potential. The present study was aimed at investigating the effect of curcumin (30 and 100 mg/kg) in combination with subtherapeutic dose of methotrexate (1 mg/kg) is salvaging hepatotoxicity, oxidative stress and producing synergistic anti-arthritic action with methotrexate. Wistar albino rats were induced with arthritis by subplantar injection of Freund's Complete Adjuvant and pronounced arthritis was seen after 9 days of injection. Groups of animals were treated with subtherapeutic dose of methotrexate followed half an hour later with 30 and 100mg/kg of curcumin from day 9 up to days 45 by intraperitoneal route. Methotrexate treatment in Freund's Complete Adjuvant induced arthritic animals produced elevation in the levels of aminotransferases, alkaline phosphatase, total and direct bilirubin. Enhanced oxidative stress in terms of measured lipid peroxides was observed in the methotrexate treated group. Curcumin significantly circumvented hepatotoxicity induced by methotrexate as evidenced by a change in biochemical markers possibly due to its strong anti-oxidant action. Hepatoprotective potential of curcumin was also confirmed from histological evaluation. Sub-therapeutic dose of methotrexate elicited substantial anti-arthritic action when used in combination with curcumin implying that the latter potentiated its action. Concomitant administration of curcumin with methotrexate was also found to minimize liver damage. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Long-term survival of methotrexate in psoriatic arthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Battafarano

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term survival rate of Methotrexate (MTX in the peripheral joint involvement of psoriatic arthritis (PsA in a setting of everyday clinical practice. Methods. This was an observational restrospective study performed using the data from a dermatological-rheumatological PsA clinic. All of the patients evaluated at this clinic from March 1997 to December 2007 who were started on MTX alone, had a three-year follow-up time or had discontinued the therapy were included into the survey. Results. Of the 174 evaluable patients, 104 (59.8% were still taking MTX after three years of treament. The reasons of therapy discontinuation in the remaining 70 (40.2% patients were: 34 (19.5% lost-to-follow-up, 18 (10.3% adverse events, 14 (8% inefficacies, and 4 (2.3% deaths (none related to the therapy. MTX was effective in controlling joint inflammation but not in preventing their deterioration. Overall, adverse events were recorded in 43 patients (36.4% of the 114 patients with a three-year follow-up. No serious side effect occurred in the study population. Conclusions. The results of this study showed that, in a setting of clinical pratice, MTX had a good three-year performance in patients with peripheral PsA. Almost 60% of them were still taking this drug at the end of the study period and the toxicity was more than acceptable. In our opinion, MTX might be considered the non-biological DMARD of choice for the treatment of this condition. However it should be used earlier and at higher doses.

  17. Reversible acute methotrexate leukoencephalopathy: atypical brain MR imaging features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziereisen, France; Damry, Nash; Christophe, Catherine; Dan, Bernard; Azzi, Nadira; Ferster, Alina

    2006-01-01

    Unusual acute symptomatic and reversible early-delayed leukoencephalopathy has been reported to be induced by methotrexate (MTX). We aimed to identify the occurrence of such atypical MTX neurotoxicity in children and document its MR presentation. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical findings and brain MRI obtained in 90 children treated with MTX for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia or non-B malignant non-Hodgkin lymphoma. All 90 patients had normal brain imaging before treatment. In these patients, brain imaging was performed after treatment completion and/or relapse and/or occurrence of neurological symptoms. Of the 90 patients, 15 (16.7%) showed signs of MTX neurotoxicity on brain MRI, 9 (10%) were asymptomatic, and 6 (6.7%) showed signs of acute leukoencephalopathy. On the routine brain MRI performed at the end of treatment, all asymptomatic patients had classical MR findings of reversible MTX neurotoxicity, such as abnormal high-intensity areas localized in the deep periventricular white matter on T2-weighted images. In contrast, the six symptomatic patients had atypical brain MRI characterized by T2 high-intensity areas in the supratentorial cortex and subcortical white matter (n=6), cerebellar cortex and white matter (n=4), deep periventricular white matter (n=2) and thalamus (n=1). MR normalization occurred later than clinical recovery in these six patients. In addition to mostly asymptomatic classical MTX neurotoxicity, MTX may induce severe but reversible unusual leukoencephalopathy. It is important to recognize this clinicoradiological presentation in the differential diagnosis of acute neurological deterioration in children treated with MTX. (orig.)

  18. adverse effects of low dose methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilani, S.T.; Khan, D.A.; Khan, F.A.; Ahmed, M.

    2012-01-01

    To determine the frequency of adverse effects attributed to Methotrexate (MTX) toxicity and serum minimum toxic concentration with low dose MTX in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) patients. Study Design: Cross-sectional observational study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Chemical Pathology and Endocrinology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rawalpindi, from March 2010 to March 2011. Methodology: One hundred and forty adult patients of RA receiving low dose MTX (10 mg/week) for at least 3 months, ere included by consecutive sampling. Blood samples were collected 2 hours after the oral dose of MTX. Serum alanine transaminase and creatinine were analyzed on Hitachi and blood counts on Sysmex analyzer. Serum MTX concentration was measured on TDX analyzer. Results: Out of one hundred and forty patients; 68 males (49%) and 72 females (51%), 38 developed MTX toxicity (27%), comprising of hepatotoxicity in 12 (8.6%), nephrotoxicity in 3 (2.1%), anaemia in 8 (5.7%), leucopenia in 2 (1.4%), thrombocytopenia in 3 (2.1%), pancytopenia in 2 (1.4%), gastrointestinal adverse effects in 5 (3.6%) and mucocutaneous problems in 3 (2.1%). Receiver operating characteristic curve revealed serum minimum toxic concentration of MTX at cutoff value of 0.71 mu mol/l with a sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 76%. Conclusion: Adverse effects of low dose MTX were found in 27% of RA patients, mainly comprising of hepatotoxicity and haematological problems. MTX toxicity can be detected by therapeutic drug monitoring of serum concentration of 0.71 mu mol/l with sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 76% in the patients on low dose MTX maintenance therapy. (author)

  19. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  20. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  1. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  2. Too Many, Too Few, or Just Right? Making Sense Of Conflicting RN Supply and Demand Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spetz, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of future supply and demand of health professionals are tools to guide policy, not a final statement about how the world will be in the future. Recent forecasts of RN supply and demand vary widely and are incredibly confusing for nurse leaders, nurse educators, and policymakers. To effectively incorporate forecasts into policy and planning, one must understand the structure of the forecasts and underlying assumptions. One should treat all forecasts cautiously, and use them as guides to policy rather than definitive future outcomes.

  3. Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Elst, N.; Page, M. T.

    2017-12-01

    The basic premise behind aftershock forecasting is that sequences in the future will be similar to those in the past. Forecast models typically use empirically tuned parametric distributions to approximate past sequences, and project those distributions into the future to make a forecast. While parametric models do a good job of describing average outcomes, they are not explicitly designed to capture the full range of variability between sequences, and can suffer from over-tuning of the parameters. In particular, parametric forecasts may produce a high rate of "surprises" - sequences that land outside the forecast range. Here we present a non-parametric forecast method that cuts out the parametric "middleman" between training data and forecast. The method is based on finding past sequences that are similar to the target sequence, and evaluating their outcomes. We quantify similarity as the Poisson probability that the observed event count in a past sequence reflects the same underlying intensity as the observed event count in the target sequence. Event counts are defined in terms of differential magnitude relative to the mainshock. The forecast is then constructed from the distribution of past sequences outcomes, weighted by their similarity. We compare the similarity forecast with the Reasenberg and Jones (RJ95) method, for a set of 2807 global aftershock sequences of M≥6 mainshocks. We implement a sequence-specific RJ95 forecast using a global average prior and Bayesian updating, but do not propagate epistemic uncertainty. The RJ95 forecast is somewhat more precise than the similarity forecast: 90% of observed sequences fall within a factor of two of the median RJ95 forecast value, whereas the fraction is 85% for the similarity forecast. However, the surprise rate is much higher for the RJ95 forecast; 10% of observed sequences fall in the upper 2.5% of the (Poissonian) forecast range. The surprise rate is less than 3% for the similarity forecast. The similarity

  4. Case report: AREB in a patient with rheumatoid arthritis treated with methotrexate and infliximab

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Rossi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Anti TNF-a drugs seem to be the new frontier of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA therapy. The association infliximab methotrexate has been approved for the treatment of RA not responding to the classic therapy, but the short clinical experience in using antiTNF-a molecules brings to segnalation of new risks or adverse events. We describe a case of a patient, treated for many years with classic RA therapy, which developed a refractory anemia after treatment with association infliximab-methotrexate.

  5. Sequential Proximal Tibial Stress Fractures associated with Prolonged usage of Methotrexate and Corticosteroids: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan TJL

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Stress fractures of the proximal tibia metaphysis are rare in the elderly. We present a case of a 65-year old male who developed sequential proximal tibia stress fractures associated with prolonged usage of methotrexate and prednisolone within a span of 18 months. Magnetic Resonance Imaging revealed an incomplete stress fracture involving the medial proximal tibial region. The patient was treated with stemmed total knee arthroplasty (TKA bilaterally. Stress fractures should be considered in patients with atypical knee pain who have a history of methotrexate and prednisolone usage. TKA is an effective treatment in stress fractures of the proximal tibia.

  6. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  7. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  8. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  9. Utilization of Subcutaneous Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients After Failure or Intolerance to Oral Methotrexate: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branco, Jaime C; Barcelos, Anabela; de Araújo, Filipe Pombo; Sequeira, Graça; Cunha, Inês; Patto, José Vaz; Oliveira, Margarida; Mateus, Margarida Pratas; Couto, Maura; Nero, Patrícia; Pinto, Patrícia; Monteiro, Paulo; Castelão, Walter; Félix, Jorge; Ferreira, Diana; Almeida, João; Silva, Maria João

    2016-01-01

    Low-dose weekly methotrexate (MTX) is the mainstay in the therapy of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It can be given via oral, intramuscular or subcutaneous (SC) route. This study sought to determine the real-world pattern of treatment with SC MTX in Portuguese adult patients with active RA. Utilization of Metoject(®) in Rheumatoid Arthritis (UMAR) was a non-interventional, cohort multicenter study with retrospective data collection. Eligible patients had active RA, at least 18 years of age, and started SC MTX treatment in 2009 or 2010 after failure or intolerance to oral MTX. Data were collected from patient's clinical records. Both non-parametric and parametric survival methods were used to obtain a detailed understanding of SC MTX treatment duration. Fifty patients were included, of which only 9 discontinued SC MTX during the study follow-up period. The probability of discontinuation after 1, 2, and 3 years of treatment of SC MTX treatment is expected to be 6.10%, 8.50%, and 23.20%, respectively. The extrapolated median duration of SC MTX using an exponential model was 106.4 months/8.87 years. Mean dose of SC MTX was 18.36 mg. The reasons for treatment discontinuation were occurrence of adverse events in six patients and lack of efficacy in three. The long treatment duration of SC MTX highlights its excellent tolerability compared to oral MTX, especially concerning the frequent adverse gastrointestinal events of MTX. Furthermore, long MTX treatment duration provides the opportunity to postpone or even avoid expensive therapies with biologics. The results obtained from the UMAR study provide important information for the utilization and public financing of SC MTX in Portugal.

  10. Treatment efficacy and methotrexate-related toxicity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis receiving methotrexate in combination with adalimumab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmester, Gerd R; Kaeley, Gurjit S; Kavanaugh, Arthur F; Gabay, Cem; MacCarter, Daryl K; Nash, Peter; Takeuchi, Tsutomu; Goss, Sandra L; Rodila, Ramona; Chen, Kun; Kupper, Hartmut; Kalabic, Jasmina

    2017-01-01

    Treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with a combination of methotrexate (MTX)+adalimumab (ADA) is more effective than ADA monotherapy. We assessed the toxicity of different doses of MTX and treatment efficacy of ADA+MTX in two trials. Data originated from CONCERTO, in patients with early RA initiating ADA+ 2.5, 5, 10 or 20 mg/week MTX for 26 weeks; and MUSICA, in patients with an inadequate response to MTX initiating ADA+ 7.5 or 20 mg/week MTX for 24 weeks. Efficacy was assessed by the American College of Rheumatology 50 (ACR50). Patient-reported MTX-related toxicity information was collected at each visit on 18 prespecified MTX-related adverse events (AE) in the MTX label. In CONCERTO, ACR50 rates increased over time, ranging from 54% to 68% at week 26, while AE rates remained steady, ranging from 2.4% to 17.8% at week 26. Of 395 patients, 113 (28.6%) reported 345 MTX-related AEs, including one serious AE (SAE, excessive fatigue and/or malaise); 10 AEs (in two patients) led to study discontinuation. In MUSICA, ACR50 rates increased over time, and were 32.3% and 37.5% at week 24, while MTX-related AE rates remained steady and were 6.5% at week 24. Of 309 patients, 71 (23%) reported 185 MTX-related AEs, including 5 SAEs (four infections and one fever/chills); six AEs (in four patients) led to study discontinuation. In patients with RA initiating ADA+MTX combination, treatment efficacy was achieved and increased throughout both trials, while rates of MTX-related AEs remained steady. MTX-related AEs were observed in up to 30% of patients and most were mild. MTX was discontinued by 0.5%-1.3% of patients. MUSICA (NCT01185288), CONCERTO (NCT01185301), Post results.

  11. High-dose methotrexate following intravitreal methotrexate administration in preventing central nervous system involvement of primary intraocular lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akiyama, Hiroki; Takase, Hiroshi; Kubo, Fumito; Miki, Tohru; Yamamoto, Masahide; Tomita, Makoto; Mochizuki, Manabu; Miura, Osamu; Arai, Ayako

    2016-10-01

    In order to prevent central nervous system (CNS) involvement and improve the prognosis of primary intraocular lymphoma (PIOL), we prospectively evaluated the efficacy of combined therapy using intravitreal methotrexate (MTX) and systemic high-dose MTX on treatment-naïve PIOL. Patients with newly diagnosed PIOL whose lymphoma was limited to the eyes were enrolled. The patients were treated with weekly intravitreal MTX until the ocular lesions were resolved, followed by five cycles of systemic high-dose MTX (3.5 g/m 2 ) every other week. Ten patients were enrolled in this study and completed the treatment. All patients achieved complete response for their ocular lesions with rapid decrease of intravitreal interleukin-10 concentration. Adverse events of intravitreal and systemic high-dose MTX were mild and tolerable. With a median follow-up of 29.5 months, four patients (40%) experienced the CNS disease development and the mean CNS lymphoma-free survival (CLFS) time was 51.1 months. Two-year CLFS, which was the primary end-point of the study, was 58.3% (95% confidence interval, 23.0-82.1%). In contrast, eight patients were treated with intravitreal MTX alone in our institute, and their 2-year CLFS was 37.5% (95% confidence interval, 8.7-67.4%). In conclusion, systemic high-dose MTX following intravitreal MTX is feasible and might be effective in preventing CNS involvement of PIOL. Further arrangements are worth considering in order to improve the effects. This study was registered with UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000003921). © 2016 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

  12. Comparison of central nervous system prophylaxis with cranial radiation and intrathecal methotrexate versus intrathecal methotrexate alone in acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muriel, F.S.; Svarch, E.; Pavlovsky, S.

    1983-01-01

    In acute lymphoblastic leukemia, central nervous system prophylaxis with irradiation plus intrathecal methotrexate (i.t. MTX) reduces the incidence of CNS relapse to 7%-15%. However, increased evidence of CNS delayed toxicity was recognized mainly in children as CT scan abnormalities and neuropsychologic alterations. Two questions were analyzed: (1) Will further doses of i.t. methotraxate and dexamethasone (i.t. MTX-DMT) decrease the incidence of CNS relapse. (2) Is i.t. MTX-DMT given during induction and maintenance as effective as cranium irradiation plus i.t. MTX-DMT. Incidence of primary CNS relapse in i.t. MTX-DMT-treated patients with a WBC count 50,000, it was 16% in the treated group and 19% in the control group. These patients were compared with patients which had received 3 doses of i.t. MTX-DMT alone during induction, 3 doses weekly during the first month of remission, and quarterly thereafter. The incidence of leukemia at 60 mo in patients with a WBC count 50,000 at 48 mo was 28% and 42% in the irradiated and nonirradiated group respectively. Complete remission remained at 15% and 16% respectively of patients disease-free at 48 mo. We conclude that (A) after cranial irradiation plus i.t. MTX-DMT X 5, the use of additional doses of i.t. MTX-DMT is not of further benefit in preventing CNS relapse; (B) use of i.t. MTX-DMT alone compares with cranial irradiation plus i.t. MTX-DMT in incidence of CNS relapse; and (C) relapse-free survival and survival in patients with a WBC count < 50.000 were significantly longer in those without cranial irradiation

  13. Uterine Artery Embolization Combined with Local Methotrexate and Systemic Methotrexate for Treatment of Cesarean Scar Pregnancy with Different Ultrasonographic Pattern

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Fan; Wang Yu; Chen Wei; Li Jiaping; Zhan Zhongping; Ye Yujin; Zhu, Yunxiao; Huang Jia; Xu Hanshi; Yang Xiuyan; Liang Liuqin; Yang Jianyong

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study was designed to compare the effectiveness of systemic methotrexate (MTX) with uterine artery embolization (UAE) combined with local MTX for the treatment of cesarean scar pregnancy (CSP) with different ultrasonographic pattern, and to indicate the preferable therapy in CSP patients. Methods: The results of 21 CSP cases were reviewed. All subjects were initially administrated with systemic MTX (50 mg/m 2 body surface area). UAE combined with local MTX was added to the patients who had failed systemic MTX. The transvaginal ultrasonography data were retrospectively assessed, and two different ultrasonographic patterns were found: surface implantation and deep implantation of amniotic sac. The management and its effectiveness for patients with the two ultrasonographic patterns were studied retrospectively. Ultrasound scan and serum β-hCG were monitored during follow-up. Data were analyzed with the Student’s t test. Results: Nine patients were successfully treated with systemic MTX. The remaining 12 cases were successfully treated with additional UAE combined with local MTX. According to the classification by Vial et al. of CSP on ultrasonography, most surface implanted CSPs (8/11, 72.7%) could be successfully treated with systemic MTX, whereas most deeply implanted CSPs (9/10, 90%) had failed systemic MTX but still could be successfully treated with additional UAE combined with local MTX. All patients recovered without severe side effects. Most patients with a future desire for reproduction achieved subsequent pregnancy. Conclusions: For CSP patients suitable for nonsurgical treatment, UAE combined with local MTX would be the superior option compared with systemic MTX in the cases with deep implantation of amniotic sac.

  14. Influence of pre-hydration and pharmacogenetics on plasma methotrexate concentration and renal dysfunction following high-dose methotrexate therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagimachi, Masakatsu; Goto, Hiroaki; Kaneko, Tetsuji; Naruto, Takuya; Sasaki, Koji; Takeuchi, Masanobu; Tanoshima, Reo; Kato, Hiromi; Yokosuka, Tomoko; Kajiwara, Ryosuke; Fujii, Hisaki; Tanaka, Fumiko; Goto, Shoko; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Mori, Masaaki; Kai, Sumio; Yokota, Shumpei

    2013-12-01

    High-dose methotrexate therapy (HD-MTX) has been well established for the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The aims of this study were to investigate whether clinical and pharmacogenetic factors influence plasma MTX concentration and renal dysfunction in patients treated with HD-MTX. In a total of 127 courses of HD-MTX in 51 patients with childhood ALL, influence of clinical and pharmacogenetic factors on plasma MTX concentration and HD-MTX-related renal dysfunction was evaluated. Clinical factors included age, gender, duration of HD-MTX continuous-infusion and duration of pre-hydration before HD-MTX. Pharmacogenetic factors included 5 gene polymorphisms within the MTX pathway genes, namely, SLC19A1, MTHFR, ABCC2 and ABCG2. Short duration of pre-hydration before HD-MTX is the most important risk factor for prolonged high MTX concentration (p < 0.001, OR 6.40, 95 % CI 2.39-17.16) and renal dysfunction (p = 0.013, OR 3.15, 95 % CI 1.27-7.80). The T allele at MTHFR C677T was the risk factor for prolonged high MTX concentration (p = 0.009, OR 5.54, 95 % CI 1.54-19.85), but not for renal dysfunction. We found the influence of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on prolonged high MTX concentration. We reconfirmed the importance of adequate pre-hydration before HD-MTX to prevent prolonged high MTX concentration and MTX-related renal dysfunction.

  15. Cyclosporin-Methotrexate Compared with Cyclosporin-Methotrexate-Methylprednisolone Therapy for the Prophylaxis of Acute Graft-Versus Host Disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khattab, N.F.

    2010-01-01

    Acute graft-versus host (GVHD) disease is a common immunologic complication, which occurs in 40-50% of the recipients of allogenic stem cell transplantation (SCT). The role of corticosteroid in the prevention of GVHD is not well established. We report here a study to determine whether the addition of methylprednisolone to the combination of cyclosporine (CSA) and methotrexate (MTX), methylp-rednisolone (MP) for the prophylaxis of acute GVHD would further decrease the incidence of acute GVHD. A group of patients (25 patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and 12 patients with acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) that received CSA/MTX/MP started from 2004 to 2008, were compared to a historical group of patients (19 patient with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and 12 patients with acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) that received GVHD prophylaxis in the form of CSA/MTX only from 1999 to 2003). The primary endpoint in this study was the develop-ment of GVHD and the secondary end point was overall and disease free survival. Both groups of patients were matched for age, sex, donor recipient sex, low risk patients and high risk patients. Although the incidence of acute GVHD in the MP -ve group was 35% versus 24% in the MP+ve group, there was no significant difference between them. The overall survival showed a significant difference between the 2 groups (p<0.05). It was 48% for the 2 drug regimen (CSA/MTX) vs. 81% for the three drug regimen (CSA/MTX/MP). There was a significant decrease in the relapse rate in patients on CSA/MTX/MP (p<0.05). In conclusion, the addition of MP (methylprednis-olone) to the combination of CSA/MTX did not affect the incidence of acute GVHD significantly in allogeneic SCT but surprisingly the incidence of survival and relapse was markedly increased and decreased respectively

  16. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  17. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  18. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  19. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  20. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  1. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  2. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  3. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  4. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  5. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  6. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  7. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  8. Single-dose systemic methotrexate vs expectant management for treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy: a placebo-controlled randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurkovic, D; Memtsa, M; Sawyer, E; Donaldson, A N A; Jamil, A; Schramm, K; Sana, Y; Otify, M; Farahani, L; Nunes, N; Ambler, G; Ross, J A

    2017-02-01

    Methotrexate is used routinely worldwide for the medical treatment of clinically stable women with a tubal ectopic pregnancy. This is despite the lack of robust evidence to show its superior effectiveness over expectant management. The aim of our multicenter randomized controlled trial was to compare success rates of methotrexate against placebo for the conservative treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy. This study took place in two early-pregnancy units in the UK between August 2005 and June 2014. Inclusion criteria were clinically stable women with a conclusive ultrasound diagnosis of a tubal ectopic pregnancy, presenting with a low serum beta human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) level of Women were assigned randomly to a single systemic injection of either 50 mg/m 2 methotrexate or placebo. The primary outcome was a binary indicator for success of conservative management, defined as resolution of clinical symptoms and decline of serum β-hCG to women, 42 of whom were assigned to methotrexate and 38 to placebo. The arms of the study were matched in terms of age, ethnicity, obstetric history, pregnancy characteristics and serum levels of β-hCG and progesterone. The rates of success were similar for the two study arms: 83% with methotrexate and 76% with placebo. On univariate analysis, this difference was not statistically significant (χ 2 (1 degree of freedom) = 0.53; P = 0.47). On multivariate logistic regression, the serum level of β-hCG was the only covariate found to be significantly associated with outcome. The odds of failure increased by 0.15% for each unit increase in β-hCG (odds ratio, 1.0015 (95% CI, 1.0002-1.003); P = 0.02). In 14 women presenting with serum β-hCG of 1000-1500 IU/L, the success rate was 33% in those managed expectantly compared with 62% in those receiving methotrexate. This difference was not statistically significant and a larger sample size would be needed to give sufficient power to detect a difference in the

  9. CAN INITIAL βHCG VALUES PREDICT THE NEED FOR SECOND DOSE OF METHOTREXATE IN MEDICAL MANAGEMENT OF ECTOPIC PREGNANCY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priya Narayanan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Prediction of requirement of second dose of methotrexate in patients treated with single dose would help in guiding treatment and counseling. The aim of this study is to determine whether pretreatment beta HCG values can predict the need for second dose of methotrexate in medically managed ectopic pregnancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS 46 women with ectopic pregnancies who were managed medically were included. The median of beta HCG titres on day 1, day 4 and day 7 was assessed in patients who responded to single dose methotrexate and those who required a second dose. RESULTS Out of the 46 patients studied, 41 responded to medical treatment (success 91%. 14 out of 41 required second dose of methotrexate (34%. Two patients required third dose of methotrexate. Five patients required surgery. DISCUSSION The median of day 1 and day 4 beta HCG values were not statistically different between those who responded to single dose methotrexate and those who required a second dose. Only day 7 values were found to be different. CONCLUSION The beta-hCG titre on day 1 and day 4 is not a predictor of requirement of second dose of methotrexate.

  10. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  11. Fatal pulmonary fibrosis complicating low dose methotrexate therapy for rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veen, M. J.; Dekker, J. J.; Dinant, H. J.; van Soesbergen, R. M.; Bijlsma, J. W.

    1995-01-01

    We report the fatal disease course of 2 aged patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Both had respiratory complaints after 10-15 weeks of treatment with methotrexate (MTX). After withdrawal of MTX, and despite the use of corticosteroids and ventilatory support, both died of respiratory failure.

  12. Effects of methotrexate on rat parotid and submandibular glands and their secretions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental animals were injected intraperitoneally with methotrexate for 3 days. Parotid and submandibular main ducts were cannulated and saliva flow was evoked by either intravenous infusion of acetylcholine or an intravenous injection of benthanechol. Methotrexate was found to reduce significantly mean food consumption, body weight, and parotid gland wet weights. Experimental animal salivary total gland DNA levels were not different, but total parotid gland RNA, protein, amylase and water content, and submandibular gland RNA were significantly lower compared to control. Acetylcholine, but not bethanechol, evoked parotid protein and amylase outputs and submandibular protein output from experimental animals were significantly higher than the control groups'. The increased outputs were apparently linked to β-adrenergic receptor activation, since hexamethonium or propranolol eliminated the significant increases while phenoxybenzamine did not. Plasma catecholamine levels were significantly higher in the methotrexate treated animals and probably played a role in the salivary gland β-adrenergic activation. Methotrexate treatment significantly increased the submandibular gland β-adrenergic receptor concentration as determined by [ 3 H]-dihydroalprenolol receptor binding assays. Muscarinic receptor concentrations determined with [ 3 H]-quinuclidninyl benzilate were not changed

  13. St. John's wort significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of methotrexate in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Shih-Ying; Juang, Shin-Hun; Tsai, Shang-Yuan; Chao, Pei-Dawn Lee; Hou, Yu-Chi

    2012-01-01

    St. John's wort (SJW, Hypericum perforatum) is one of the popular nutraceuticals for treating depression. Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunosuppressant with narrow therapeutic window. This study investigated the effect of SJW on MTX pharmacokinetics in rats. Rats were orally given MTX alone and coadministered with 300 and 150 mg/kg of SJW, and 25 mg/kg of diclofenac, respectively. Blood was withdrawn at specific time points and serum MTX concentrations were assayed by a specific monoclonal fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. The results showed that 300 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC 0−t and C max of MTX by 163% and 60%, respectively, and 150 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC 0−t of MTX by 55%. In addition, diclofenac enhanced the C max of MTX by 110%. The mortality of rats treated with SJW was higher than that of controls. In conclusion, coadministration of SJW significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of MTX. The combined use of MTX with SJW would need to be with caution. -- Highlights: ► St. John's wort significantly increased the AUC 0−t and C max of methotrexate. ► Coadministration of St. John's wort increased the exposure and toxicity of methotrexate. ► The combined use of methotrexate with St. John's wort will need to be with caution.

  14. Encapsulation of methotrexate loaded magnetic microcapsules for magnetic drug targeting and controlled drug release

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chakkarapani, Prabu [Department of Pharmaceutical Technology & Centre for Excellence in Nanobio Translational Research, Anna University, Bharathidasan Institute of Technology Campus, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India); Subbiah, Latha, E-mail: lathasuba2010@gmail.com [Department of Pharmaceutical Technology & Centre for Excellence in Nanobio Translational Research, Anna University, Bharathidasan Institute of Technology Campus, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India); Palanisamy, Selvamani; Bibiana, Arputha [Department of Pharmaceutical Technology & Centre for Excellence in Nanobio Translational Research, Anna University, Bharathidasan Institute of Technology Campus, Tiruchirappalli 620024, Tamil Nadu (India); Ahrentorp, Fredrik; Jonasson, Christian; Johansson, Christer [Acreo Swedish ICT AB, Arvid Hedvalls backe 4, SE-411 33 Göteborg (Sweden)

    2015-04-15

    We report on the development and evaluation of methotrexate magnetic microcapsules (MMC) for targeted rheumatoid arthritis therapy. Methotrexate was loaded into CaCO{sub 3}-PSS (poly (sodium 4-styrenesulfonate)) doped microparticles that were coated successively with poly (allylamine hydrochloride) and poly (sodium 4-styrenesulfonate) by layer-by-layer technique. Ferrofluid was incorporated between the polyelectrolyte layers. CaCO{sub 3}-PSS core was etched by incubation with EDTA yielding spherical MMC. The MMC were evaluated for various physicochemical, pharmaceutical parameters and magnetic properties. Surface morphology, crystallinity, particle size, zeta potential, encapsulation efficiency, loading capacity, drug release pattern, release kinetics and AC susceptibility studies revealed spherical particles of ~3 µm size were obtained with a net zeta potential of +24.5 mV, 56% encapsulation and 18.6% drug loading capacity, 96% of cumulative drug release obeyed Hixson-Crowell model release kinetics. Drug excipient interaction, surface area, thermal and storage stability studies for the prepared MMC was also evaluated. The developed MMC offer a promising mode of targeted and sustained release drug delivery for rheumatoid arthritis therapy. - Highlights: • Development of methotrexate magnetic microcapsules (MMC) by layer-by-layer method. • Characterization of physicochemical, pharmaceutical and magnetic properties of MMC. • Multiple layers of alternative polyelectrolytes prolongs methotrexate release time. • MMC is capable for targeted and sustained release rheumatoid arthritis therapy.

  15. Comparison of weakness progression in inclusion body myositis during treatment with methotrexate or placebo

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Badrising, UA; Maat-Schieman, MLC; Ferrari, MD; Zwinderman, AH; Wessels, JAM; Breedveld, FC; van Doorn, PA; van Engelen, BGM; Hoogendijk, JE; Howeler, CJ; de Jager, AE; Jennekens, FGI; Koehler, PJ; de Visser, M; Viddeleer, A; Verschuuren, JJ; Wintzen, AR

    We investigated whether 5 to 20mg per week oral methotrexate could slow down disease progression in 44 patients with inclusion body myositis in a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study over 48 weeks. Mean change of quantitative muscle strength testing sum scores was the primary study

  16. Effects of methotrexate on rat parotid and submandibular glands and their secretions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McBride, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental animals were injected intraperitoneally with methotrexate for 3 days. Parotid and submandibular main ducts were cannulated and saliva flow was evoked by either intravenous infusion of acetylcholine or an intravenous injection of benthanechol. Methotrexate was found to reduce significantly mean food consumption, body weight, and parotid gland wet weights. Experimental animal salivary total gland DNA levels were not different, but total parotid gland RNA, protein, amylase and water content, and submandibular gland RNA were significantly lower compared to control. Acetylcholine, but not bethanechol, evoked parotid protein and amylase outputs and submandibular protein output from experimental animals were significantly higher than the control groups'. The increased outputs were apparently linked to ..beta..-adrenergic receptor activation, since hexamethonium or propranolol eliminated the significant increases while phenoxybenzamine did not. Plasma catecholamine levels were significantly higher in the methotrexate treated animals and probably played a role in the salivary gland ..beta..-adrenergic activation. Methotrexate treatment significantly increased the submandibular gland ..beta..-adrenergic receptor concentration as determined by (/sup 3/H)-dihydroalprenolol receptor binding assays. Muscarinic receptor concentrations determined with (/sup 3/H)-quinuclidninyl benzilate were not changed.

  17. Inhibition of cytokine production by methotrexate. Studies in healthy volunteers and patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerards, A.H.; Lathouder, de S; Groot, E.R.; Dijkmans, B.A.C.; Aarden, L.A.

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To analyse whether the beneficial effects of methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could be due to inhibition of inflammatory cytokine production. METHODS: Cytokine production was studied using whole blood (WB) and mononuclear cells (MNC) of healthy volunteers and RA patients.

  18. Inhibition of cytokine production by methotrexate. Studies in healthy volunteers and patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerards, A. H.; de Lathouder, S.; de Groot, E. R.; Dijkmans, B. A. C.; Aarden, L. A.

    2003-01-01

    Objectives. To analyse whether the beneficial effects of methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could be due to inhibition of inflammatory cytokine production. Methods. Cytokine production was studied using whole blood (WB) and mononuclear cells (MNC) of healthy volunteers and RA patients.

  19. Measures of 6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate maintenance therapy intensity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stine Nygaard; Grell, Kathrine; Nersting, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Normal white blood cell counts (WBC) are unknown in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Accordingly, 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate (MTX) maintenance therapy is adjusted by a common WBC target of 1.5-3.0 × 10(9)/L. Consequently, the absolute degree...

  20. Liposomal Cytarabine Induces Less Neurocognitive Dysfunction Than Intrathecal Methotrexate in an Animal Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Anna M; Gulinello, Maria E; Wen, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Liposomal cytarabine is currently being tested clinically as an alternative to intrathecal (IT) methotrexate (MTX) for preventing relapse within the central nervous system among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. To compare the toxicity and cognitive deficits caused by IT MTX versus lipo...

  1. Bisphosphonate-associated osteonecrosis of jaw reoccurrence after methotrexate therapy: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsalleeh, Fahd; Keippel, Jeffery; Adams, Lyde; Bavitz, Bruce

    2014-09-01

    Bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (BRONJ) is a well-known complication caused by amino-bisphosphonate therapy. We document one case of BRONJ associated with oral administration of methotrexate, a known immunosuppressive drug used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. A 66-year-old woman was referred for evaluation and endodontic surgery of recently re-treated tooth 13. Tooth 14 was extracted 3 months prior, and the extraction site had not completely healed. Her medical history revealed rheumatoid arthritis and osteoporosis. She had been taking Fosamax (alendronate) 70 mg daily. Because of adequate root canal therapy of tooth 13, endodontic surgery was performed. Five months after apicoectomy, her symptoms had not changed. Tooth 13 was extracted, and the socket healed without complications. The socket of extracted tooth 14 was also healing. At the 3-month recall visit, bone exposure and purulent discharge at the site of extracted tooth 14 were noted. The patient had recently received methotrexate. The methotrexate was discontinued, and she was given course of amoxicillin. At the 18-month follow-up, the healing progressed, and the wound was closed. A medication that suppresses the immune system such as methotrexate may complicate the management of BRONJ. Once a diagnosis of BRONJ is made, a closely monitored conservative approach is recommended. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The acitretin and methotrexate combination therapy for psoriasis vulgaris achieves higher effectiveness and less liver fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Jingang; Zhang, Dingwei; Wu, Jiawen; Li, Jiong; Teng, Xiu; Gao, Xiaomin; Li, Ruilian; Wang, Xiuying; Xia, Linlin; Xia, Yumin

    2017-07-01

    Both acitretin and methotrexate are effective in ameliorating psoriatic lesion. However, their combination has been seldom reported in the treatment of psoriasis because of the warning regarding the potential hepatotoxicity of the drug interactions. This study was designed to investigate the effectiveness of such combination therapy for psoriasis vulgaris, and the potential benefit as well as side effect during the treatment. Thirty-nine patients with psoriasis vulgaris were treated with acitretin, methotrexate or their combination or as control. Similarly, K14-VEGF transgenic psoriasis-like mice were treated with these drugs. Human primary keratinocytes and hepatic stellate cells were used for analyzing their effect in vitro. The results showed that the combination therapy exhibited higher effectiveness in remitting skin lesion, but did not significantly affect the liver function of both patients and mice. Moreover, the combination groups showed less elevation of profibrotic factors in sera when compared with methotrexate alone groups accordingly. Furthermore, primary keratinocytes expressed more involucrin as well as loricrin and proliferated more slowly on the combined stimulation. Interestingly, such combination treatment induced lower expression of profibrotic factors in hepatic stellate cells. In conclusion, the acitretin-methotrexate combination therapy for psoriasis vulgaris can achieve higher effectiveness and result in less liver fibrosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Glucarpidase treatment for methotrexate intoxication: a case report and review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boelens, A. D.; Mathôt, R. A. A.; Vlaar, A. P. J.; Bouman, C. S. C.

    2018-01-01

    High-dose methotrexate (MTX) induced acute kidney injury can lead to sustained high systemic MTX levels and severe toxicity. A 39-year-old man with lymphoblastic T-cell lymphoma was admitted to our intensive care unit with elevated serum creatinine and prolonged high serum MTX levels. Standard

  4. Methotrexate: Revisited efficiency and safety of drug administration in psoriasis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Bakulev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the current data of the literature on methotrexate, which is now one of the most commonly used preparation for the systemic treatment of patients with moderate to severe psoriasis. The following problems are under consideration: estimation by specialists of response to systemic psoriasis therapy and possible therapeutic strategies; selecting initial doses of methotrexate for the treatment of patients with psoriasis; the possibilities of combined use with genetically engineered biological agents and monitoring of therapy. The data from randomized clinical trials on the long-term continuous treatment with methotrexate (efficacy, safety; methods of its administration to patients and time and criteria for long-term effecasy are reported. There are presented the data on the mechanisms of methotrexate action and the new data about the impact on the adenosine metabolism and the ability of the preparation to modulate the inflammatory response in the skin of patients by inhibiting the cellular components of the inflammatory infiltrate in the skin (dendritic antigen-producing cells and T-lymphocytes, as well as the suppression of expression of some proinflammatory cytokines (IFN-y and IL17A.

  5. EEG with extreme delta brush in young female with methotrexate neurotoxicity supports NMDA receptor involvement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Lisbeth Samsø; Kjær, Troels W; Schmiegelow, Kjeld

    2017-01-01

    Sub-acute neurotoxicity is a well-known complication to high-dose and intrathecal methotrexate (MTX) treatment of children with leukemia. Symptoms can be treated safely by dextromethorphan, a non-competitive antagonist to N-methyl-D-aspartic acid receptor (NMDAR). In a female with subacute MTX...

  6. Efficacy of tofacitinib monotherapy in methotrexate-naive patients with early or established rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleischmann, Roy M.; Huizinga, Tom W. J.; Kavanaugh, Arthur F.; Wilkinson, Bethanie; Kwok, Kenneth; DeMasi, Ryan; van Vollenhoven, Ronald F.

    2016-01-01

    Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Tofacitinib monotherapy was previously shown to inhibit structural damage, reduce clinical signs and symptoms of RA, and improve physical functioning over 24 months in methotrexate (MTX)-naive adult

  7. Bioavailability of higher dose methotrexate comparing oral and subcutaneous administration in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Monique; Haagsma, C.; Neef, C; Proost, Johannes H; Knuif, A.; van der Laar, M.

    Objective. To determine the bioavailability of higher oral doses of methotrexate (MTX) in adult patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. A pharmacokinetic analysis was performed in 15 patients with RA taking a stable dose of MTX (greater than or equal to25 mg weekly). Separated by 2 weeks,

  8. N-feruloylserotonin in preventive combination therapy with methotrexate reduced inflammation in adjuvant arthritis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kuncírová, V.; Poništ, S.; Mihalová, D.; Dráfi, F.; Nosáľ, R.; Acquaviva, A.; Gardi, C.; Harmatha, Juraj; Hrádková, I.; Bauerová, K.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2014), s. 616-626 ISSN 0767-3981 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : arthritis * inflammation * oxidative stress * combination therapy * methotrexate * N-feruloylserotonin Subject RIV: FR - Pharmacology ; Medidal Chemistry Impact factor: 2.121, year: 2014

  9. Voltammetric Behavior of Methotrexate Using Mercury Meniscus Modified Silver Solid Amalgam Electrode

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šelešovská, R.; Bandžuchová, L.; Navrátil, Tomáš

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2011), s. 177-178 ISSN 1040-0397 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400400806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40400503 Keywords : methotrexate * voltammetry * determination Subject RIV: CG - Electrochemistry Impact factor: 2.872, year: 2011

  10. Monitoring methotrexate-induced liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis: utility of transient elastography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng HS

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Harriet S Cheng,1 Marius Rademaker2 1Dermatology Service, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand; 2Waikato Clinical Campus, Auckland University Medical School, Hamilton, New Zealand Abstract: Increasingly, existing evidence indicates that methotrexate-associated liver injury is related to comorbid risk factors such as diabetes, alcoholism, and obesity, rather than to methotrexate itself. Despite this fact, significant effort continues to be expended in the monitoring of low-dose methotrexate in patients with psoriasis. The gold standard investigation has been liver biopsy, but this is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. As methotrexate-induced liver injury is uncommon, the risk/benefit ratio of liver biopsy has been questioned. Fortunately, a number of new technologies have been developed for the diagnosis of chronic liver disease, including transient elastography (TE. TE is a type of shear wave ultrasound elastography, which measures the speed of shear waves used to estimate hepatic tissue stiffness. Several meta-analyses show very high pooled sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of hepatic cirrhosis (87% and 91%, respectively in a variety of chronic liver disorders. It has a negative predictive value for cirrhosis of >90% and a positive predictive value of 75%. Recent European guidelines now advocate the use of TE as the first-line test for the assessment of fibrosis in alcohol- or hepatitis-related liver disease, including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD. As the prevalence of obesity and metabolic syndrome, including NAFLD, is significantly elevated in patients with psoriasis, TE may be worth considering as a routine investigation for any patient with psoriasis. Although high-quality studies comparing TE with standard liver biopsy in the monitoring of psoriatics on low-dose methotrexate are lacking, the evidence from multiple small cohort studies and case series demonstrates its effectiveness. A recent

  11. Reduced cerebral glucose metabolism and increased brain capillary permeability following high-dose methotrexate chemotherapy: a positron emission tomographic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, P.C.; Dhawan, V.; Strother, S.C.; Sidtis, J.J.; Evans, A.C.; Allen, J.C.; Rottenberg, D.A.

    1987-01-01

    Regional glucose metabolic rate constants and blood-to-brain transport of rubidium were estimated using positron emission tomography in an adolescent patient with a brain tumor, before and after chemotherapy with intravenous high-dose methotrexate. Widespread depression of cerebral glucose metabolism was apparent 24 hours after drug administration, which may reflect reduced glucose phosphorylation, and the influx rate constant for 82 Rb was increased, indicating a drug-induced alteration in blood-brain barrier function. Associated changes in neuropsychological performance, electroencephalogram, and plasma amino acid concentration were identified in the absence of evidence of systemic methotrexate toxicity, suggesting primary methotrexate neurotoxicity

  12. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  13. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  14. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  16. Comparison of central nervous system prophylaxis with cranial radiation and intrathecal methotrexate versus intrathecal methotrexate alone in acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muriel, F.S.; Svarch, E.; Pavlovsky, S.; Eppinger-Helft, M.; Braier, J.; Vergara, B.; Garay, G.; Kvicala, R.; Divito, J.M.; Failace, R.

    1983-08-01

    In acute lymphoblastic leukemia, central nervous system prophylaxis with irradiation plus intrathecal methotrexate (i.t. MTX) reduces the incidence of CNS relapse to 7%-15%. However, increased evidence of CNS delayed toxicity was recognized mainly in children as CT scan abnormalities and neuropsychologic alterations. Two questions were analyzed: (1) Will further doses of i.t. methotraxate and dexamethasone (i.t. MTX-DMT) decrease the incidence of CNS relapse. (2) Is i.t. MTX-DMT given during induction and maintenance as effective as cranium irradiation plus i.t. MTX-DMT. Incidence of primary CNS relapse in i.t. MTX-DMT-treated patients with a WBC count < 50,000 and in the untreated group was 11%. In patients with a WBC count > 50,000, it was 16% in the treated group and 19% in the control group. These patients were compared with patients which had received 3 doses of i.t. MTX-DMT alone during induction, 3 doses weekly during the first month of remission, and quarterly thereafter. The incidence of leukemia at 60 mo in patients with a WBC count < 50,000 was 20% in the irradiated group and 32% in the group with i.t. MTX-DMT alone. The relapse-free survival at 60 mo was 26% and 41%, respectively, (p < 0.0005). The incidence in patients with a WBC count > 50,000 at 48 mo was 28% and 42% in the irradiated and nonirradiated group respectively. Complete remission remained at 15% and 16% respectively of patients disease-free at 48 mo. We conclude that (A) after cranial irradiation plus i.t. MTX-DMT X 5, the use of additional doses of i.t. MTX-DMT is not of further benefit in preventing CNS relapse; (B) use of i.t. MTX-DMT alone compares with cranial irradiation plus i.t. MTX-DMT in incidence of CNS relapse; and (C) relapse-free survival and survival in patients with a WBC count < 50.000 were significantly longer in those without cranial irradiation.

  17. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  18. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  19. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  20. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  1. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  2. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  3. Forecasting droughts in West Africa: Operational practice and refined seasonal precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliefernicht, Jan; Siegmund, Jonatan; Seidel, Jochen; Arnold, Hanna; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation forecasts for the upcoming rainy seasons are one of the most important sources of information for an early warning of droughts and water scarcity in West Africa. The meteorological services in West Africa perform seasonal precipitation forecasts within the framework of PRESAO (the West African climate outlook forum) since the end of the 1990s. Various sources of information and statistical techniques are used by the individual services to provide a harmonized seasonal precipitation forecasts for decision makers in West Africa. In this study, we present a detailed overview of the operational practice in West Africa including a first statistical assessment of the performance of the precipitation forecasts for drought situations for the past 18 years (1998 to 2015). In addition, a long-term hindcasts (1982 to 2009) and a semi-operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 using statistical and/or dynamical downscaling are performed to refine the precipitation forecasts from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), a global ensemble prediction system. This information is post-processed to provide user-oriented precipitation indices such as the onset of the rainy season for supporting water and land use management for rain-fed agriculture. The evaluation of the individual techniques is performed focusing on water-scarce regions of the Volta basin in Burkina Faso and Ghana. The forecasts of the individual techniques are compared to state-of-the-art global observed precipitation products and a novel precipitation database based on long-term daily rain-gage measurements provided by the national meteorological services. The statistical assessment of the PRESAO forecasts indicates skillful seasonal precipitation forecasts for many locations in the Volta basin, particularly for years with water deficits. The operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 illustrates the high potential of a physically-based downscaling for this region but still shows

  4. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  5. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  6. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  7. Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hristos Tyralis

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to suggest an optimal set of predictor variables. Furthermore, we compare its performance to benchmarking methods. The first dataset is composed by 16,000 simulated time series from a variety of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA models. The second dataset consists of 135 mean annual temperature time series. The highest predictive performance of RF is observed when using a low number of recent lagged predictor variables. This outcome could be useful in relevant future applications, with the prospect to achieve higher predictive accuracy.

  8. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  9. Stability study of methotrexate in 0.9% sodium chloride injection and 5% dextrose injection with limit tests for impurities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Klaus; Bogedal Jorgensen, Lene; Lindegaard Berg, Dorthe

    2017-01-01

    Purpose. Results of an evaluation of the stability of methotrexate in 0.9% sodium chloride injection and 5% dextrose injection are presented. Methods. Methotrexate concentrated solution (100 mg/mL) was diluted to nominal concentrations of 0.2 and 20 mg/mL in infusion bags containing 0.9% sodium...... chloride injection or 5% dextrose injection. The filled bags were stored for 28 days at 25 °C and 60% relative humidity and protected from light. Samples were withdrawn for analysis on the day of preparation and after 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days. The test program included visual inspections, measurements...... in amounts of known and unknown degradation products were detected. In 5% dextrose injection, methotrexate at the higher concentration was stable for 28 days, with minor formation of degradation products; in the 0.2-mg/mL solution, however, methotrexate was stable for only 3 days. At later time points...

  10. Circulating levels of osteoprotegerin and sRANKL and the effect of methotrexate in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aadhaar Dhooria

    2018-01-01

    Conclusions: OPG levels are higher in RA patients and normalize in response to treatment with methotrexate. The initial higher levels of OPG may represent a compensatory mechanism to osteoclast activation; they normalize on reduction of disease activity.

  11. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  12. Successful combination treatment of a patient with progressive juvenile localized scleroderma (morphea) using imatinib, corticosteroids, and methotrexate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamo, Yasuji; Ochiai, Toyoko

    2013-01-01

    We report a case of progressive juvenile localized scleroderma (JLS or morphea) treated with a combination of imatinib, corticosteroids, and methotrexate. This therapy halted the progressive skin thickening and the hand and finger joint deformity in the early stages of the disease. We conclude that imatinib used in addition to standard treatment with systemic corticosteroids and methotrexate may be of therapeutic benefit for individuals with JLS. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  14. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  15. Population PK/PD model of homocysteine concentrations after high-dose methotrexate treatment in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hauke Rühs

    Full Text Available Elevated homocysteine concentrations have been associated with methotrexate-induced neurotoxicity. Based on methotrexate and homocysteine plasma concentrations of 494 children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with high-dose methotrexate in the TOTAL XV study, a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD model was built with NONMEM. Several compartment and indirect response models were investigated. The pharmacokinetic disposition of methotrexate was best described by a two-compartment model. Homocysteine concentrations were included by an indirect response model where methotrexate inhibition of the homocysteine elimination rate was described by an E(max model. The homocysteine baseline level was found to be age-dependent. Simulations revealed that folinate rescue therapy does not affect peak concentrations of homocysteine but leads to a modestly reduced homocysteine exposure. In conclusion, our PK/PD model describes the increase of methotrexate-induced HCY concentrations with satisfactory precision and can be applied to assess the effect of folinate regimens on the HCY concentration-time course.

  16. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  17. Value of ultrasonography as a marker of early response to abatacept in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and an inadequate response to methotrexate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Agostino, Maria-Antonietta; Wakefield, Richard J; Berner-Hammer, Hilde

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To study the responsiveness of a combined power Doppler and greyscale ultrasound (PDUS) score for assessing synovitis in biologic-naïve patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) starting abatacept plus methotrexate (MTX). METHODS: In this open-label, multicentre, single-arm study......, patients with RA (MTX inadequate responders) received intravenous abatacept (∼10 mg/kg) plus MTX for 24 weeks. A composite PDUS synovitis score, developed by the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology-European League Against Rheumatism (OMERACT-EULAR)-Ultrasound Task Force, was used to evaluate individual joints......-week treatment period. The earliest PDUS sign of improvement in synovitis was at week 1 (mean change in GLOESS (MCPs 2-5): -0.7 (95% CIs -1.2 to -0.1)), with continuous improvement to week 24. Early improvement was observed in the component scores (power Doppler signal at week 1, synovial hyperplasia...

  18. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  19. Novel methotrexate soft nanocarrier/fractional erbium YAG laser combination for clinical treatment of plaque psoriasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramez, Shahenda A; Soliman, Mona M; Fadel, Maha; Nour El-Deen, Faisal; Nasr, Maha; Youness, Eman R; Aboel-Fadl, Dalea M

    2018-02-15

    Psoriasis is a commonly encountered chronic dermatological disease, presenting with inflammatory symptoms in patients. Systemic treatment of psoriasis is associated with several adverse effects, therefore the development of a customized topical treatment modality for psoriasis would be an interesting alternative to systemic delivery. The therapeutic modality explored in this article was the comparative treatment of psoriatic patients using nanoparticulated methotrexate in the form of jojoba oil-based microemulsion with or without fractional erbium YAG laser. Assessment parameters included follow-up photography for up to 8 weeks of treatment, estimation of the psoriasis severity [TES (thickness, erythema, scales)] score, and histopathological skin evaluation. The prepared methotrexate microemulsion was clinically beneficial and safe in treatment of psoriasis vulgaris. The concomitant use of the fractional laser provided improvement in the psoriatic plaques within shorter time duration (3 weeks compared to 8 weeks of treatment), presenting an alternative topical treatment modality for psoriasis vulgaris.

  20. Effects of growth hormone plus a hyperproteic diet on methotrexate-induced injury in rat intestines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, M; Gomez-de-Segura, I A; Vázquez, I; López, J M; de Guevara, C L; De-Miguel, E

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether growth hormone treatment reduces injury to the intestinal mucosa induced by methotrexate (MTX). Wistar rats with intestinal injury induced by methotrexate were treated with daily growth hormone, beginning 3 days before MTX treatment until 3 or 4 days after MTX administration. The rats were killed at 3 or 7 days post-MTX administration. The rats were fed with either a normoproteic diet or a hyperproteic diet. Body weight, mortality, bacterial translocation, intestinal morphometry, proliferation and apoptosis and blood somatostatin and IGF-1 were determined. Combined administration of growth hormone and a hyperproteic diet reduces MTX-induced mortality. This effect was accompanied by increased cell proliferation and decreased apoptosis within the crypt. Morphometric data showed complete recovery of the mucosa by day 7 post-MTX administration. These results indicate a synergistic protective action of growth hormone combined with a hyperproteic diet to MTX-induced injury.

  1. [Fiessinger-Leroy-Reiter syndrome with non-obstructive cardiomyopathy treated with methotrexate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blétry, O; De Prost, Y; Scheuble, C; Frank, R; Godeau, P

    1979-07-01

    The case of a 50 year old male with the Fiessinger-Leroy-Reiter syndrome, ankylosing spondylitis and generalised pustular psoriasis is reported. This condition wax complicated by non-obstructive cardiomyopathy, congestive cardiac failure and first-degree atrioventricular block, the site of which was localised by electrophysiological studies (nodal block with an infrahisian conduction defect). After failure of several therapeutic regimes, a spectacular improvement was obtained with Methotrexate associated with a diuretic; the signs of heart failure regressed and the cardiomyopathy stablised. A parallel improvement was seen in the skin, cardiac and articular lesions and has been maintained with an 18 months follow-up. Left ventricular performance was studied by echocardiography. The mechanism of the beneficial effect of Methotrexate is unclear; this therapeutic trial is to be extended to include other cases of primary cardiomyopathy without obstruction.

  2. Actuarial risk of isolated CNS involvement in Ewing's sarcoma following prophylactic cranial irradiation and intrathecal methotrexate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trigg, M.E.; Makuch, R.; Glaubiger, D.

    1985-01-01

    Records of 154 patients with Ewing's sarcoma treated at the National Cancer Institute were reviewed to assess the incidence and risk of developing isolated central nervous system (CNS) Ewing's sarcoma. Sixty-two of the 154 patients had received CNS irradiation and intrathecal (i.t.) methotrexate as part of their initial therapy to prevent the occurrence of isolated CNS Ewing's sarcoma. The risk of developing isolate CNS Ewing's sarcoma was greatest within the first two years after diagnosis and was approximately 10%. The overall risk of CNS recurrence in the group of patients receiving DNS treatment was similar to the group receiving no therapy directed to the CNS. The occurrence of isolated CNS involvement was not prevented by the use of CNS irradiation and i.t. methotrexate. Because of a lack of efficacy to the CNS irradiation regimen, current treatment regimens do not include therapy directed to CNS

  3. A Combination of Surgery And Methotrexate for Successful Treatment of a Caesarean Scar Ectopic Pregnancy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Tadesse, WG

    2018-06-01

    Caesarean scar ectopic pregnancy (CSEP) is one of the rarest forms of ectopic pregnancies. With rising caesarean delivery (CD) rates worldwide, there is an increase in the incidence of CSEP. Patients usually present with painless vaginal bleeding and often misdiagnosed as spontaneous miscarriage. The use of ultrasonography with colour flow Doppler helps in the differential diagnosis. Different treatment options are described in the literature, although there is insufficient evidence regarding the best approach. We report the diagnosis and management of a case of CSEP in a woman with four previous CD who presented with vaginal bleeding and lower abdominal cramps at six weeks of gestation. She was treated with laparoscopic and ultrasound guided aspiration of the gestational sac and local injection of methotrexate supplemented by intramuscular methotrexate injection.

  4. Successful Management of Cervical Ectopic Pregnancy with Bilateral Uterine Artery Embolization and Methotrexate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keitaroh Takeda

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cervical ectopic pregnancy (CEP is a rare form of ectopic pregnancy. Cases diagnosed early in pregnancy can be managed medically, but more advanced pregnancies often require hysterectomy. Uterine artery embolization (UAE is a novel approach to CEP for those who wish to preserve fertility. Here we present the case of a 44-year-old female with a 2-week history of vaginal bleeding and abdominal pain who was diagnosed with CEP and successfully treated with bilateral UAE (BUAE in combination with methotrexate. A 44-year-old female presented to the emergency department with a 2-week history of vaginal bleeding. Serum beta-hCG was 71,964 mIU/ml. The transvaginal ultrasound confirmed CEP. The patient was referred to obstetrics and interventional radiology and ultimately treated with BUAE and methotrexate. Symptoms resolved quickly and she was discharged after 3 days.

  5. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  6. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  7. Preliminary study for predicting better methotrexate efficacy in Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    OpenAIRE

    Hashiguchi, Masayuki; Tsuru, Tomomi; Miyawaki, Kumika; Suzaki, Midori; Hakamata, Jun; Shimizu, Mikiko; Irie, Shin; Mochizuki, Mayumi

    2016-01-01

    Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by systemic inflammatory status, joint destruction, disability, and pain. Methotrexate (MTX) has been confirmed to reduce disease activity and delay or stabilize the development of bone erosions. However, major drawbacks are that patients show great interindividual variability in response to MTX and the unpredictable occurrence of side effects. A strategy for personalized MTX treatment to predict its efficacy a...

  8. Multicenter study of environmental contamination with cyclophosphamide, ifosfamide, and methotrexate in 48 Canadian hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poupeau, Céline; Tanguay, Cynthia; Caron, Nicolas J; Bussières, Jean-François

    2018-01-01

    Context Oncology workers are occupationally exposed to antineoplastic drugs. This exposure can induce adverse health effects. In order to reduce their exposure, contamination on surfaces should be kept as low as possible. Objectives To monitor environmental contamination with cyclophosphamide, ifosfamide, and methotrexate in oncology pharmacy and patient care areas in Canadian hospitals. To describe the impact of some factors that may limit contamination. Methods This is a descriptive study. Twelve standardized sites were sampled in each participating center (six in the pharmacy and six in patient care areas). Samples were analyzed for the presence of cyclophosphamide, ifosfamide, and methotrexate by ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry technology. Descriptive statistical analyses were done and results were compared with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for independent samples. Results In 2015, 48 hospitals participated in this study (48/202, 24%). Overall, 34% (181/525) of the samples were positive for cyclophosphamide, 8% (41/525) for ifosfamide, and 6% (31/525) for methotrexate. The 75th percentile value of cyclophosphamide surface concentration was 6.9 pg/cm 2 . For ifosfamide and methotrexate, they were lower than the limit of detection. Centers who prepared more antineoplastic drugs per year and centers who used more cyclophosphamide per year showed significantly higher surface contamination ( p contamination. Conclusion In comparison with other multicenter studies that were conducted in Canada, the concentration of antineoplastic drugs measured on surfaces is decreasing. Regular environmental monitoring is a good practice in order to maintain contamination as low as reasonably achievable.

  9. Outpatient endometrial aspiration: an alternative to methotrexate for pregnancy of unknown location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insogna, Iris G; Farland, Leslie V; Missmer, Stacey A; Ginsburg, Elizabeth S; Brady, Paula C

    2017-08-01

    Pregnancies of unknown location with abnormal beta-human chorionic gonadotropin trends are frequently treated as presumed ectopic pregnancies with methotrexate. Preliminary data suggest that outpatient endometrial aspiration may be an effective tool to diagnose pregnancy location, while also sparing women exposure to methotrexate. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of an endometrial sampling protocol for the diagnosis of pregnancies of unknown location after in vitro fertilization. A retrospective cohort study of 14,505 autologous fresh and frozen in vitro fertilization cycles from October 2007 to September 2015 was performed; 110 patients were diagnosed with pregnancy of unknown location, defined as a positive beta-human chorionic gonadotropin without ultrasound evidence of intrauterine or ectopic pregnancy and an abnormal beta-human chorionic gonadotropin trend (location, failed intrauterine pregnancy was diagnosed in 46 patients (42%), and ectopic pregnancy was diagnosed in 64 patients (58%). Clinical variables that included fresh or frozen embryo transfer, day of embryo transfer, serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin at the time of sampling, endometrial thickness, and presence of an adnexal mass were not significantly different between patients with failed intrauterine pregnancy or ectopic pregnancy. In patients with failed intrauterine pregnancy, 100% demonstrated adequate postsampling beta-human chorionic gonadotropin declines; villi were identified in just 46% (n=21 patients). Patients with failed intrauterine pregnancy had significantly shorter time to resolution (negative serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin) after sampling compared with patients with ectopic pregnancy (12.6 vs 26.3 days; Plocation are spared methotrexate, with a shorter time to pregnancy resolution than those who receive methotrexate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Quantifying the hepatotoxic risk of alcohol consumption in patients with rheumatoid arthritis taking methotrexate

    OpenAIRE

    Humphreys, Jenny H; Warner, Alexander; Costello, Ruth; Lunt, Mark; Verstappen, Suzanne M M; Dixon, William G

    2017-01-01

    Background Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who take methotrexate (MTX) are advised to limit their alcohol intake due to potential combined hepatotoxicity. However, data are limited to support this. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of developing abnormal liver blood tests at different levels of alcohol consumption, using routinely collected data from primary care. Methods Patients with RA in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink starting MTX between 1987 and 2016 were i...

  11. Inhibition of cytokine production by methotrexate. Studies in healthy volunteers and patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    OpenAIRE

    Gerards, A.H.; Lathouder, de, S; Groot, E.R.; Dijkmans, B.A.C.; Aarden, L.A.

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To analyse whether the beneficial effects of methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could be due to inhibition of inflammatory cytokine production. METHODS: Cytokine production was studied using whole blood (WB) and mononuclear cells (MNC) of healthy volunteers and RA patients. Cultures were stimulated with either bacterial products such as lipo-oligosaccharide (LOS) or Staphylococcus aureus Cowan I (SAC) to activate monocytes or with monoclonal antibodies to CD3 and CD28 to in...

  12. Methotrexate for the Treatment of Pediatric Crohn's Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Ruben J; Lawton, Rachel C; Dubinsky, Marla C; Rubin, David T

    2018-04-23

    Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunomodulator used for the treatment of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). There are currently no RCTs that assess the treatment efficacy of methotrexate within the pediatric IBD patient population. This systematic review and meta-analysis assesses the efficacy of MTX therapy among the existing pediatric literature. A systematic literature search was performed using MEDLINE and the Cochrane library from inception until March 2016. Synonyms for 'pediatric', 'methotrexate' and 'IBD' were utilized as both free text and MESH search terms. The studies included contained clinical remission (CR) rates for MTX treatment of pediatric IBD patients 18 yrs old, as mono- or combination therapy. Case studies with <10 patients were excluded. Quality assessment was performed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Meta-analysis calculated pooled CR rates. A random-effects meta-analysis with forest plots was performed using R. Fourteen (11 monotherapy, 1 combination therapy, 2 both; n = 886 patients) observational studies were eligible out of 202 studies. No interventional studies were identified. The pooled achieved CR rate for pediatric CD patients on monotherapy within 3-6 months was 57.7% (95% CI 48.2-66.6%), (P =0.22; I2 = 29.8%). The CR was 37.1% (95% CI 29.5-45.5%), (P = 0.20; I2 = 37.4%) for maintenance therapy at 12 months. Sub-analysis could not identify CR differences between MTX administration types, thiopurine exposure. This meta-analysis demonstrated that, over 50% of pediatric Crohn's disease patients induced with methotrexate achieved clinical remission, while 12-month remission rate was only 37%. Prospective controlled interventional trials should assess treatment efficacy among patient subgroups. 10.1093/ibd/izy078_video1izy078.video15774883936001.

  13. Efficacy of tofacitinib monotherapy in methotrexate-naive patients with early or established rheumatoid arthritis

    OpenAIRE

    Fleischmann, Roy M; Huizinga, Tom W J; Kavanaugh, Arthur F; Wilkinson, Bethanie; Kwok, Kenneth; DeMasi, Ryan; van Vollenhoven, Ronald F

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Tofacitinib monotherapy was previously shown to inhibit structural damage, reduce clinical signs and symptoms of RA, and improve physical functioning over 24?months in methotrexate (MTX)-naive adult patients with RA. In this post hoc analysis, we compared efficacy and safety of tofacitinib in patients with early (disease duration

  14. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  15. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the 'EU Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast'; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). 1) Identification of all pharmaceuticals going off-patent and new branded medicinal products over a 5-year forecasting period in seven European Union (EU) Member States. 2) Development of a model to estimate direct and indirect impacts (based on health policies and clinical experts) on savings of generics and biosimilars. Inputs were originator sales value, patent expiry date, time to launch after marketing authorization, price discount, penetration rate, time to peak sales, and impact on brand price. 3) Development of a model for new drugs, which estimated sales progression in a competitive environment. Clinical expected benefits as well as commercial potential were assessed for each product by clinical experts. Inputs were development phase, marketing authorization dates, orphan condition, market size, and competitors. 4) Separate analysis of the budget impact of products going off-patent and new drugs according to several perspectives, distribution chains, and outcomes. 5) Addressing uncertainty surrounding estimations via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This methodology has proven to be effective by 1) identifying the main parameters impacting the variations in pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting across countries: generics discounts and penetration, brand price after patent loss, reimbursement rate, the penetration of biosimilars and discount price, distribution chains, and the time

  16. Evaluation of Protective Activity of Curcumin in Reducing Methotrexate Induced Liver Cells Injury: An Experimental Study on Iraqi White Domestic Rabbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Abady Aljebori

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Hepatotoxicity is a common problem in medical practice, most of the commonly used drugs are potentially hepatotoxic. Although Methotrexate is a hepa- toxic drug, it is widely used in the treatment of many cancerous and non-cancerous conditions because of its cytotoxic and immunosuppressant activity. Curcumin con- tains a variety of natural substances with antioxidant properties, it is widely used in  folk medicine.Antioxidant activity of Curcumin can reduce liver cell injury induced by Methotrexate administration. Objective: The research aims to study the methotrexate hepatoxicity on rabbits, and the hepatoprotective activity of Curcumin. Materials and Methods: Thirty white domestic rabbits were bought from animal market and grouped randomly into three groups; control group received intraperitoneal normal saline, methotrexate group received 6.5 mg/Kgm body weight intraperitoneal methotrexate, and curcumin group received oral Curcumin in addition to intraperitoneal methotrexate. Results: The study showed abnormal liver function tests, INR, liver tissues oxida- tive markers, and liver cell injury on histopathology in Methotrexate group, and normal findings in Curcumin groups. Conclusion: It is concluded that the Methotrexate is a hepatotoxic drug. The results also shoe that the concomitant administration of Curcumin reduced hepatotoxicity. Recommendation: It is recommended to use of Curcumin in clinical practice as a food supplement to patient receiving methotrexate to reduce hepatotoxicity.

  17. PUVA and methotrexate therapy of psoriasis: how closely do dermatology departments follow treatment guidelines? Psoriasis Audit Workgroup of the British Association of Dermatologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilsland, D J; Rhodes, L E; Zaki, I; Wilkinson, S M; McKenna, K E; Handfield-Jones, S E; Williams, R E

    1994-08-01

    Following publication of treatment guidelines for patients with psoriasis, a six-centre audit was undertaken to assess current therapeutic practice for two second-line treatments, PUVA and methotrexate. The audit consisted of random sampling of casenotes by external auditors from a paired dermatology department, and assessment by questionnaire. One hundred and eight PUVA and 118 methotrexate casenotes were audited. The commonest indications for treatment were: (a) failure of tropical therapy--PUVA (mean 81% of casenotes), methotrexate (84%); (b) repeated hospital admissions--PUVA (16%), methotrexate (25%). For both PUVA and methotrexate, some aspects of treatment were well documented: PUVA--psoralen dosage (91%), response to PUVA (89%), cumulative lifetime UVA dosage (81%); methotrexate--pretreatment assessment of full blood count (91%), urea and electrolytes (85%), liver function tests (84%). For other aspects documentation was less complete: PUVA--no documentation of presence/absence of skin cancer history (66%), note of photoactive drugs (32%); methotrexate--concurrent medication (69%), history of presence/absence of liver disease (36%). Another aspect which was poorly documented in both PUVA and methotrexate notes was whether advice on contraception/fertility had been given. There was no indication in 29 of 32 casenotes of females of child-bearing age receiving PUVA, and 52 of 63 case notes of relevant patients on methotrexate. This project has demonstrated that formal, multicentre audit based on published guidelines is a practical proposition.

  18. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  19. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  20. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....