EPR of free radicals in solids II trends in methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Lund, Anders; Lund, Anders

2012-01-01

EPR of Free Radicals in Solids: Trends in Methods and Applications, 2nd ed. presents a critical two volume review of the methods and applications of EPR (ESR) for the study of free radical processes in solids. Emphasis is on the progress made in the developments in EPR technology, in the application of sophisticated matrix isolation techniques and in the advancement in quantitative EPR that have occurred since the 1st edition was published. Improvements have been made also at theoretical level, with the development of methods based on first principles and their application to the calculation of magnetic properties as well as in spectral simulations. EPR of Free Radicals in Solids II focuses on the trends in applications of experimental and theoretical methods to extract structural and dynamical properties of radicals and spin probes in solid matrices by continuous wave (CW) and pulsed techniques in nine chapters written by experts in the field. It examines the studies involving radiation- and photo-induced in...

Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

1993-01-01

We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

Methods allowing in-situ aging evaluation of austenitic-ferritic molded steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paris, D.; Massoud, J.P.; Chicois, J.; Borelly, R.; Shoji, T.; Yi, Y.

1997-01-01

The molded elbows of the primary coolant circuit of the PWR type reactors are made with austenitic-ferritic stainless molded steel which is embrittled at the service temperature. To complement with the control programs lead from bench-scale experiments, it is wished to dispose to methods allowing to verify directly on the component that the estimated aging level is effectively reached. The development of non-destructive methods comes up against difficulties: the obtained signals are generally of weak amplitude; they have to be relevant of aging; the measures having not be carrying out on the component at the initial state, we do not dispose of a reference for each component. These difficulties are illustrated by the development of three methods: the electromagnetic sorting, the ferromagnetic noise and an electrochemical method. Two methods seem to be promising: the thermoelectric power and the small angle neutron scattering. (O.M.)

Parametric Method to Define Area of Allowable Configurations while Changing Position of Restricted Zones

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Pritykin, F. N.; Nefedov, D. I.; Rogoza, Yu A.; Zinchenko, Yu V.

2018-03-01

The article presents the findings related to the development of the module for automatic collision detection of the manipulator with restricted zones for virtual motion modeling. It proposes the parametric method for specifying the area of allowable joint configurations. The authors study the cases when restricted zones are specified using the horizontal plane or front-projection planes. The joint coordinate space is specified by rectangular axes in the direction of which the angles defining the displacements in turning pairs are laid off. The authors present the results of modeling which enabled to develop a parametric method for specifying a set of cross-sections defining the shape and position of allowable configurations in different positions of a restricted zone. All joint points that define allowable configurations refer to the indicated sections. The area of allowable configurations is specified analytically by using several kinematic surfaces that limit it. A geometric analysis is developed based on the use of the area of allowable configurations characterizing the position of the manipulator and reported restricted zones. The paper presents numerical calculations related to virtual simulation of the manipulator path performed by the mobile robot Varan when using the developed algorithm and restricted zones. The obtained analytical dependencies allow us to define the area of allowable configurations, which is a knowledge pool to ensure the intelligent control of the manipulator path in a predefined environment. The use of the obtained region to synthesize a joint trajectory makes it possible to correct the manipulator path to foresee and eliminate deadlocks when synthesizing motions along the velocity vector.

An improved method for Multipath Hemispherical Map (MHM) based on Trend Surface Analysis

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Wang, Zhiren; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Yu, Chao

2017-04-01

Among various approaches developed for detecting the multipath effect in high-accuracy GNSS positioning, Only MHM (Multipath Hemispherical Map) and SF (Sidereal Filtering) can be implemented to real-time GNSS data processing. SF is based on the time repeatability of satellites which just suitable for static environment, while the spatiotemporal repeatability-based MHM is applicable not only for static environment but also for dynamic carriers with static multipath environment such as ships and airplanes, and utilizes much smaller number of parameters than ASF. However, the MHM method also has certain defects. Since the MHM take the mean of residuals from the grid as the filter value, it is more suitable when the multipath regime is medium to low frequency. Now existing research data indicate that the newly advanced Sidereal Filtering (ASF) method perform better with high frequency multipath reduction than MHM by contrast. To solve the above problem and improve MHM's performance on high frequency multipath, we combined binary trend surface analysis method with original MHM model to effectively analyze particular spatial distribution and variation trends of multipath effect. We computed trend surfaces of the residuals within a grid by least-square procedures, and chose the best results through the moderate successive test. The enhanced MHM grid was constructed from a set of coefficients of the fitted equation instead of mean value. According to the analysis of the actual observation, the improved MHM model shows positive effect on high frequency multipath reduction, and significantly reduced the root mean square (RMS) value of the carrier residuals. Keywords: Trend Surface Analysis; Multipath Hemispherical Map; high frequency multipath effect

Recent trends related to the use of formal methods in software engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Prehn, Soren

1986-01-01

An account is given of some recent developments and trends related to the development and use of formal methods in software engineering. Ongoing activities in Europe are focussed on, since there seems to be a notable difference in attitude towards industrial usage of formal methods in Europe and in the U.S. A more detailed account is given of the currently most widespread formal method in Europe: the Vienna Development Method. Finally, the use of Ada is discussed in relation to the application of formal methods, and the potential for constructing Ada-specific tools based on that method is considered.

Trends in Research Methods in Applied Linguistics: China and the West.

Science.gov (United States)

Yihong, Gao; Lichun, Li; Jun, Lu

2001-01-01

Examines and compares current trends in applied linguistics (AL) research methods in China and the West. Reviews AL articles in four Chinese journals, from 1978-1997, and four English journals from 1985 to 1997. Articles are categorized and subcategorized. Results show that in China, AL research is heading from non-empirical toward empirical, with…

Interface and thin film analysis: Comparison of methods, trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, H.W.; Torrisi, A.

1990-01-01

Thin film properties are governed by a number of parameters such as: Surface and interface chemical composition, microstructure and the distribution of defects, dopants and impurities. For the determination of most of these aspects sophisticated analytical methods are needed. An overview of these analytical methods is given including: - Features and modes of analytical methods; - Main characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the established methods [e.g. ESCA (Electron Spectroscopy for Chemical Analysis), AES (Auger Electron Spectroscopy), SIMS (Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry), RBS (Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry), SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy), TEM (Transmission Electron Microscopy), illustrated with typical examples]; - Presentation of relatively new methods such as XRM (X-ray Microscopy) and SCAM (Scanning Acoustic Microscopy). Some features of ESCA (chemical information, insulator analysis, non-destructive depth profiling) have been selected for a more detailed presentation, viz. to illustrate the application of ESCA to practical problems. Trends in instrumental development and analytical applications of the techniques are discussed; the need for a multi-technique approach to solve complex analytical problems is emphasized. (orig.)

Data and statistical methods for analysis of trends and patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.; Gentillon, C.D.; Wilson, G.E.

1992-11-01

This report summarizes topics considered at a working meeting on data and statistical methods for analysis of trends and patterns in US commercial nuclear power plants. This meeting was sponsored by the Office of Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Three data sets are briefly described: Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS), Licensee Event Report (LER) data, and Performance Indicator data. Two types of study are emphasized: screening studies, to see if any trends or patterns appear to be present; and detailed studies, which are more concerned with checking the analysis assumptions, modeling any patterns that are present, and searching for causes. A prescription is given for a screening study, and ideas are suggested for a detailed study, when the data take of any of three forms: counts of events per time, counts of events per demand, and non-event data

TREND: a program using cumulative sum methods to detect long-term trends in data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cranston, R.J.; Dunbar, R.M.; Jarvis, R.G.

1976-01-01

TREND is a computer program, in FORTRAN, to investigate data for long-term trends that are masked by short-term statistical fluctuations. To do this, it calculates and plots the cumulative sum of deviations from a chosen mean. As a further aid to diagnosis, the procedure can be repeated with a summation of the cumulative sum itself. (author)

Transparent wide band gap crystals follow indirect allowed transition and bipolaron hopping mechanism

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Feroz A. Mir

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, we carried out structural, optical and dielectric studies on micro-crystals of Oxypeucedanin (C16H14O5, isolated from the roots of plant Prangos pabularia (Mir et al. (2014 [3,4]. The obtained trend in frequency exponent (s with frequency (ω indicates that the universal dynamic response is followed by this compound. From optical absorption spectroscopy, the optical band gap (Eg was estimated around 3.76 eV and system is showing indirect allowed transition. Using Eg in certain relation of s, a close value of s (as much close obtained by fitting ac conductivity was obtained. This method was further used for other similar systems and again same trend was obtained. So a general conclusion was made that the high transmitting wide band insulators or semiconductors may follow bipolaron hopping transport mechanism.

The effect of interpolation methods in temperature and salinity trends in the Western Mediterranean

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M. VARGAS-YANEZ

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Temperature and salinity data in the historical record are scarce and unevenly distributed in space and time and the estimation of linear trends is sensitive to different factors. In the case of the Western Mediterranean, previous works have studied the sensitivity of these trends to the use of bathythermograph data, the averaging methods or the way in which gaps in time series are dealt with. In this work, a new factor is analysed: the effect of data interpolation. Temperature and salinity time series are generated averaging existing data over certain geographical areas and also by means of interpolation. Linear trends from both types of time series are compared. There are some differences between both estimations for some layers and geographical areas, while in other cases the results are consistent. Those results which do not depend on the use of interpolated or non-interpolated data, neither are influenced by data analysis methods can be considered as robust ones. Those results influenced by the interpolation process or the factors analysed in previous sensitivity tests are not considered as robust results.

A comparison of methods to estimate vertical land motion trends from GNSS and altimetry at tide gauge stations

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas

2018-03-01

Tide gauge (TG) records are affected by vertical land motion (VLM), causing them to observe relative instead of geocentric sea level. VLM can be estimated from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series, but only a few TGs are equipped with a GNSS receiver. Hence, (multiple) neighboring GNSS stations can be used to estimate VLM at the TG. This study compares eight approaches to estimate VLM trends at 570 TG stations using GNSS by taking into account all GNSS trends with an uncertainty smaller than 1 mm yr-1 within 50 km. The range between the methods is comparable with the formal uncertainties of the GNSS trends. Taking the median of the surrounding GNSS trends shows the best agreement with differenced altimetry-tide gauge (ALT-TG) trends. An attempt is also made to improve VLM trends from ALT-TG time series. Only using highly correlated along-track altimetry and TG time series reduces the SD of ALT-TG time series by up to 10 %. As a result, there are spatially coherent changes in the trends, but the reduction in the root mean square (RMS) of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends is insignificant. However, setting correlation thresholds also acts like a filter to remove problematic TG time series. This results in sets of ALT-TG VLM trends at 344-663 TG locations, depending on the correlation threshold. Compared to other studies, we decrease the RMS of differences between GNSS and ALT-TG trends (from 1.47 to 1.22 mm yr-1), while we increase the number of locations (from 109 to 155), Depending on the methods the mean of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends vary between 0.1 and 0.2 mm yr-1. We reduce the mean of the differences by taking into account the effect of elastic deformation due to present-day mass redistribution. At varying ALT-TG correlation thresholds, we provide new sets of trends for 759 to 939 different TG stations. If both GNSS and ALT-TG trend estimates are available, we recommend using the GNSS trend estimates because residual

Assessment of the relative merits of a few methods to detect evolutionary trends.

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Laurin, Michel

2010-12-01

Some of the most basic questions about the history of life concern evolutionary trends. These include determining whether or not metazoans have become more complex over time, whether or not body size tends to increase over time (the Cope-Depéret rule), or whether or not brain size has increased over time in various taxa, such as mammals and birds. Despite the proliferation of studies on such topics, assessment of the reliability of results in this field is hampered by the variability of techniques used and the lack of statistical validation of these methods. To solve this problem, simulations are performed using a variety of evolutionary models (gradual Brownian motion, speciational Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck), with or without a drift of variable amplitude, with variable variance of tips, and with bounds placed close or far from the starting values and final means of simulated characters. These are used to assess the relative merits (power, Type I error rate, bias, and mean absolute value of error on slope estimate) of several statistical methods that have recently been used to assess the presence of evolutionary trends in comparative data. Results show widely divergent performance of the methods. The simple, nonphylogenetic regression (SR) and variance partitioning using phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) with a broken stick selection procedure have greatly inflated Type I error rate (0.123-0.180 at a 0.05 threshold), which invalidates their use in this context. However, they have the greatest power. Most variants of Felsenstein's independent contrasts (FIC; five of which are presented) have adequate Type I error rate, although two have a slightly inflated Type I error rate with at least one of the two reference trees (0.064-0.090 error rate at a 0.05 threshold). The power of all contrast-based methods is always much lower than that of SR and PVR, except under Brownian motion with a strong trend and distant bounds. Mean absolute value of error

Identifying Emerging Trends of Financial Business Method Patents

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Won Sang Lee

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Financial technology has become an important part of the banking industry in recent times. This study attempts to propose a framework to identify emerging areas and trends using financial business method patents. Based on the abstracts of financial business method patents registered at the United States Patent and Trademark Office, this study first applies latent Dirichlet allocation to identify emerging topics. The probability of the annual occurrence of each topic is adjusted through the exponentially weighted moving average to reflect the importance of the recent probability of topics. Each topic is classified as “hot” or “cold” depending on whether the exponentially weighted moving average of the probabilities exceeds the threshold. We applied survival analysis to the time gap of recurrently becoming hot from a cold status with the associated factor of financial business method patents. The findings suggest that the topic with the short granted period and high forward citation is likely to become hot. In addition, the topic that is aged and specific in narrow areas is likely to continuously change into the hot or cold status. The approach proposed in this study contributes toward understanding topic emergence in the financial area and pursuing sustainable development.

A method for determining allowable residual contamination levels of radionuclide mixtures in soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, B.A.

1982-05-01

An important consideration in the disposal of radioactive wastes, and consequently in the preparation of plans for remedial actions at contaminated sites, is the amount of radioactive contamination that may be allowed to remain at any particular waste site. The allowable residual contamination level (ARCL) is dependent on the radiation dose limit imposed, the physical and environmental characteristics of the waste site, and the time at which exposure to the wastes is assumed to occur. The steps in generating an ARCL are generally as follows: (1) develop plausible, credible site-specific exposure scenario; (2) calculate maximum annual radiation doses to an individual for each radionuclide based on the existing physical characteristics of the waste site and the site-specific exposure scenario; (3) calculate the ARCL for the dose limit desired, including all radionuclides present, uncorrected for site cleanup or barrier considerations; and (4) apply any corrections for proposed cleanup activity or addition of barriers to waste migration or uptake to obtain the ARCL applicable to the proposed action. Use of this method allows appropriate application of resources to achieve uniform compliance with a single regulatory standard, i.e., a radiation dose rate limit. Application and modification of the ARCL method requires appropriate models of the environmental transport and fate of radionuclides. Example calculations are given for several specific waste forms and waste site types in order to demonstrate the technique and generate comparisons with other approaches

Analysis of gravity data using trend surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Asimopolos, Natalia-Silvia; Asimopolos, Laurentiu

2013-04-01

In this paper we have developed algorithms and related software programs for calculating of trend surfaces of higher order. These methods of analysis of trends, like mobile media applications are filtration systems for geophysical data in surface. In particular we presented few case studies for gravity data and gravity maps. Analysis with polynomial trend surfaces contributes to the recognition, isolation and measurement of trends that can be represented by surfaces or hyper-surfaces (in several sizes), thus achieving a separation in regional variations and local variations. This separation is achieved by adjusting the trend function at different values. Trend surfaces using the regression analysis satisfy the criterion of least squares. The difference between the surface of trend and the observed value in a certain point is the residual value. Residual sum of squares of these values should be minimal as the criterion of least squares. The trend surface is considered as regional or large-scale and the residual value will be regarded as local or small-scale component. Removing the regional trend has the effect of highlighting local components represented by residual values. Surface analysis and hyper-surfaces principles are applied to the surface trend and any number of dimensions. For hyper-surfaces we can work with polynomial functions with four or more variables (three variables of space and other variables for interest parameters) that have great importance in some applications. In the paper we presented the mathematical developments about generalized trend surfaces and case studies about gravimetric data. The trend surfaces have the great advantage that the effect of regional anomalies can be expressed as analytic functions. These tendency surfaces allows subsequent mathematical processing and interesting generalizations, with great advantage to work with polynomial functions compared with the original discrete data. For gravity data we estimate the depth of

Methods of trend analysis for atmospheric deposition into the sea; Trendabschaetzung atmosphaerischer Stoffeintraege in die Meere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuhbier, P.; Uhlig, S.; Fraenzel, A.; Schick, N.

2001-02-01

In order to prevent a considerable deterioration in the detectability of time trends in depositions as a result of fluctuations in the climatic conditions, an adjustment whereby the entry data are recomputed into an 'average' weather conditions appears inevitable. Accordingly, the aim of the project was the development of a concept for the adjustment and trend analysis of depositions including the examination of a number of statistical methods, with the form of the adjustment being the focus of the work. As per this concept, adjustment takes place on the basis of monthly data. The adjusted depositions are then summarized before trend analysis follows on the basis of these adjusted annual depositions. Finally the trend sensitivity of the method is examined as part of a power analysis. A data bank-based software was developed as part of the project in order to carry out the extensive calculations. With this software, the most diverse trend analysis and adjustment methods were realised and tested. It may first of all be noted that the evaluations conducted confirm the practicality of the adjustment concept developed, with various methods being deployable for fixing the adjustment parameter according to the measurement site and parameter concerned. The average reduction in the scatter of the annual depositions vis-'a-vis the non-adjusted depositions is over 40%. This amounts to a substantial improvement in trend sensitivity and makes for a clear reduction in the length of the requisite time series. However, there is no method among the adjustment methods investigated which, considering all the prerequisites, may be regarded as being superior to the other methods. The question as to which form of adjustment yields the most favourable results depends on the pollutants and the site-related conditions in each case. (orig.) [German] Um zu verhindern, dass durch klimatische Schwankungen die Nachweisbarkeit zeitlicher Trends in Depositionen wesentlich

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

2016-01-01

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone Colella

Full Text Available In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity. Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication. Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020 and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I and coastal (i.e., Case II waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Trends in marine fish catches at Pattani Fishery Port (1999-2003

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Wanchamai Karntanut

2006-07-01

Full Text Available This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of the various types of marine fish landed at Pattani Fishery Port, allowing for trend and seasonality, using official data during 1999-2003. The data comprise daily and monthly totals by weight for eight types of fish (mackerel, other food fish, squid, scads, trash fish, shrimp, lobster and crab. The statistical methods are one-way analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and time series forecasting using trend and seasonal models. It is found that mackerel, other food fish and squid catches tend to decrease, whereas the catches of scads tend to increase, and trash fish catches have no detectable trend up or down. Shrimp and lobster tend to decrease exponentially, and the trend of crab catch is constant. This study raises questions about the ecological and economic sustainability of the current fisheries policy in Thailand.

Comics – a Method that Allows Boys Deeper Experience of Children’s Literature

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Maja Kerneza

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the acquisition of reading skills girls are more successful than boys. As a method of interpretation comics could allow boys a deeper perception, understanding and evaluation of youth literary texts, and help them to express their literary perception experience. The main research method is case study with a number of linguistic motivations used. After getting acquainted with the comics, the students applied new knowledge to detect textual information embedded in stage directions, and expanded their literary worlds by converting texts into comic form. The research is based on qualitative research methods of literary didactic research. Boys’ deficits were successfully compensated – in some cases they were even more successful than girls, and the mehod of work also suited girls.

Trend methods for the assessment of effectiveness of reduction measures in the water system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uhlig, S.; Kuhbier, P. [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Statistik und Oekonometrie

2001-11-01

Riverine inputs are highly depending substance-specifically on flow rate and other climatic factors. In order to prevent that climatic influences deteriorate the trend detectability, an appropriate adjustment of the measurement data is necessary. Subject of the research project is therefore a concept for the adjustment and trend analysis of these input data. The basic concept for adjustment and trend analysis of riverine inputs is as follows: After providing monthly or biweekly data, monthly or biweekly adjusted loads are calculated with an adjustment procedure based on a dynamically specified concentration-flow function. Then the annual adjusted load is obtained by averaging the monthly or biweekly adjusted data. In the next step a trend analysis of the annual adjusted load is performed, using the LOESS smoother or the test of Mann-Kendall. Finally a power analysis is performed in order to assess the trend sensitivity of the method. Nine adjustment methods were tested at seven parameters (NO{sub 3}-N, NH{sub 4}-N, P{sub total}, PO{sub 4}-P, Cd, Pb and suspended matter) measured biweekly in the Rhine River (Lobith) and monthly in the Ems River (Herbrum). (orig.) [German] Flussfrachten sind in hohem Masse - je nach Substanz - von der Durchflussrate und anderen klimatischen Faktoren abhaengig, und um zu verhindern, dass klimatische Einfluesse die Nachweisbarkeit von zeitlichen Trends in diesen Eintragsdaten verschlechtern, ist eine Adjustierung der Messdaten erforderlich. Gegenstand des Vorhabens ist daher ein Konzept fuer die Adjustierung und Trendanalyse dieser Eintragsdaten. Das Konzept ist wie folgt strukturiert: Auf der Basis monatlicher oder vierzehntaegiger Messdaten werden monatliche bzw. vierzehntaegige adjustierte Frachten unter Verwendung einer dynamisch angepassten Konzentrations-Durchfluss-Funktion berechnet. Die adjustierte Jahresfracht ergibt sich dann mittels Durchschnittsbildung aus den monatlichen bzw. vierzehntaegigen adjustierten Frachten. Auf

Trends in Biosensors for HPV: Identification and Diagnosis

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Isaac A. M. Frías

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The conventional methodologies used for the detection of human papillomavirus (HPV present actually robust and reproducible advantages. However, at the same time, they involve complex protocols that sometimes are difficult to popularize. Over the first half of XX century, the adequate treatment of complex and delicate processes from a simple instrumental base seemed a fundamental and intrinsic contradiction. However, interdisciplinary trends have allowed the manipulation of tissues, proteins, and nucleic acids through innovative increasingly smaller devices. The proper diagnosis of HPV has seen great advances since biosensor researchers are employing its virus strains as models to study the interactions between the biorecognition element and the transducer. Additionally, all recent improvements and trends that material sciences, biotechnology, and data processing scientists excel for biosensors can be applied for the HPV detection platforms. In this review, we highlight the recent trends on materials, nanomaterials, and transducers for the specific detection and differentiation of HPV strains. The most influential methods for the detection and identification of these papillomaviruses include optical, electrochemical, and piezoelectric transducers; we will visit their sensibility and advantages. Additionally, we highlight the factors that contributed to the increasing importance of these biodevices as potential substitutes to conventional diagnostic methods.

[New trends in tonometry].

Science.gov (United States)

Draeger, J A; Schwenteck, T; Ruokonen, P C

2006-10-01

Though the knowledge about the risk of elevated intraocular pressure for pathogenesis for development and progress of glaucoma is more than 400 years old. It took another 300 years before by means of tonometry this elevation could be quantified. After discussion of the key words it is our aim to demonstrate the latest trends in tonometry, specifically by use of modern electronics for instrument design. Goldmann was the founder of the "applanation tonometry", measuring the corelation of applanated area and applied force. Here, the next step was the development of instruments, measuring independent of position or gravity to allow application also at the lying patient. Electronic area detection was the next step to avoid examinor's error. Also important was the introduction of automatic UV-desinfection to avoid contamination of the other eye or other patients. Other tonometers control the force applied by an inductive method, which also allows application independent of position. Airpuff-tonometry uses completely different measuring principles - the resulting change of corneal curvature indicates the intraocular pressure. The impedance principle is applied even through the closed eye lid. The shock waves resulting shall be measured. Direct application of a surface sensor incorporated into a concave surface contact body shall allow direct measurement of intraocular pressure independent of corneal thickness, curvature, astigmatism. This method has been tried for more than 20 years. Also exposition of the eye to count waves of different frequency was an early attempt. Here also change of reflectivity is used to calculate intraocular pressure. Even after use of modern electronic technology the precision of many of these new devices does not lead to better results. This specifically is shown by modern calibration methods.

Radiochemical and instrumental neutron activation analysis - recent trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dams, R.

1990-01-01

Recent trends of radiochemical and instrumental neutron activation analysis are discussed. Novel developments include the application of cyclic and pulsed activation, better energy resolution with hyperpure germanium detectors, and use of pulse processing systems allowing extremely high count rates of very short-lived isotopes. Further development is anticipated in the field of speciation in biological and environmental studies. Radiochemical methods have led to accurate determinations at the ng/g level. A promising future is expected for neutron activation techniques. (orig.)

Prediction of protein post-translational modifications: main trends and methods

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, B. N.; Veselovsky, A. V.; Poroikov, V. V.

2014-02-01

The review summarizes main trends in the development of methods for the prediction of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) by considering the three most common types of PTMs — phosphorylation, acetylation and glycosylation. Considerable attention is given to general characteristics of regulatory interactions associated with PTMs. Different approaches to the prediction of PTMs are analyzed. Most of the methods are based only on the analysis of the neighbouring environment of modification sites. The related software is characterized by relatively low accuracy of PTM predictions, which may be due both to the incompleteness of training data and the features of PTM regulation. Advantages and limitations of the phylogenetic approach are considered. The prediction of PTMs using data on regulatory interactions, including the modular organization of interacting proteins, is a promising field, provided that a more carefully selected training data will be used. The bibliography includes 145 references.

Content and Method Trends in the "Journal of Community Psychology" between 2003 and 2007

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Tanya M.; Ismail, Tasneem

2011-01-01

Ongoing inquiry into the characteristics of published work and its synergy with community psychology's core principles is an important reflexive endeavour in the field's continuing development. This study examined topic and method trends within the "Journal of Community Psychology" during a 5-year period (January 2003-December 2007).…

Suicide epidemics: the impact of newly emerging methods on overall suicide rates - a time trends study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang Shu-Sen

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of newly emerging, popular suicide methods on overall rates of suicide has not previously been investigated systematically. Understanding these effects may have important implications for public health surveillance. We examine the emergence of three novel methods of suicide by gassing in the 20th and 21st centuries and determine the impact of emerging methods on overall suicide rates. Methods We studied the epidemic rises in domestic coal gas (1919-1935, England and Wales, motor vehicle exhaust gas (1975-1992, England and Wales and barbecue charcoal gas (1999-2006, Taiwan suicide using Poisson and joinpoint regression models. Joinpoint regression uses contiguous linear segments and join points (points at which trends change to describe trends in incidence. Results Epidemic increases in the use of new methods of suicide were generally associated with rises in overall suicide rates of between 23% and 71%. The recent epidemic of barbecue charcoal suicides in Taiwan was associated with the largest rise in overall rates (40-50% annual rise, whereas the smallest rise was seen for car exhaust gassing in England and Wales (7% annual rise. Joinpoint analyses were only feasible for car exhaust and charcoal burning suicides; these suggested an impact of the emergence of car exhaust suicides on overall suicide rates in both sexes in England and Wales. However there was no statistical evidence of a change in the already increasing overall suicide trends when charcoal burning suicides emerged in Taiwan, possibly due to the concurrent economic recession. Conclusions Rapid rises in the use of new sources of gas for suicide were generally associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Suicide prevention strategies should include strengthening local and national surveillance for early detection of novel suicide methods and implementation of effective media guidelines and other appropriate interventions to limit the spread of

Allowable residual contamination levels for decommissioning. Part 1. A description of the method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, B.A.; Kennedy, W.E. Jr.

1984-10-01

This paper contains a description of the methods used in a study sponsored by UNC Nuclear Industries to determine Allowable Residual Contamination Levels (ARCL) for decommissioning facilities in the 100 Areas of the Hanford Site. The ARCL method is based on a scenario/exposure-pathway analysis and compliance with an annual dose limit for three specific modes of future use of the land and facilities. Thes modes of use are restricted, controlled, and unrestricted. The information on ARCL values for restricted and controlled use is intended to permit a full consideration of decommissioning alternatives. The analysis results in site-specific ARCL values that can be used for determining compliance with any annual dose limit selected. This flexibility permits proper consideration of field situations involving the radionuclide mixtures and physical conditions encountered. In addition, this method permits a full determination of as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) conditions

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

2015-03-01

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

Trends in citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miquel Porta

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are no analyses of citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature. Such analyses may shed light on how concepts and methods changed while biomedical research evolved. Our aim was to analyze the number and time trends of citations received from biomedical articles by books on epidemiological and statistical methods, and related disciplines. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The data source was the Web of Science. The study books were published between 1957 and 2010. The first year of publication of the citing articles was 1945. We identified 125 books that received at least 25 citations. Books first published in 1980-1989 had the highest total and median number of citations per year. Nine of the 10 most cited texts focused on statistical methods. Hosmer & Lemeshow's Applied logistic regression received the highest number of citations and highest average annual rate. It was followed by books by Fleiss, Armitage, et al., Rothman, et al., and Kalbfleisch and Prentice. Fifth in citations per year was Sackett, et al., Evidence-based medicine. The rise of multivariate methods, clinical epidemiology, or nutritional epidemiology was reflected in the citation trends. Educational textbooks, practice-oriented books, books on epidemiological substantive knowledge, and on theory and health policies were much less cited. None of the 25 top-cited books had the theoretical or sociopolitical scope of works by Cochrane, McKeown, Rose, or Morris. CONCLUSIONS: Books were mainly cited to reference methods. Books first published in the 1980s continue to be most influential. Older books on theory and policies were rooted in societal and general medical concerns, while the most modern books are almost purely on methods.

Trend analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

1991-01-01

The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

The main trends in clinical use of radionuclides in oncology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agranat, V.Z.

1979-01-01

The main trends of using radionuclide methods in clinical oncology are shown. Two main aspects of using radionuclide methods are pointed out: radionuclide investigation of the primary tumour as ''local'' manifestation of the cancer disease, radionuclide investigation of the body ''response'' to the tumour process. Each of the aspects of the problem is briefly considered on some examples. Examples of positive scintigraphy of tumours are given. It is shown that tumorotropic properties of some radionuclides make possible using visualization methods realizing the differential diagnosis of some tumours. Considered are direct and indirect signs which allow determining the presence of metastases and testifying to the tumour process spread

Workshop on Recent Trends in Complex Methods for Partial Differential Equations

CERN Document Server

Celebi, A; Tutschke, Wolfgang

1999-01-01

This volume is a collection of manscripts mainly originating from talks and lectures given at the Workshop on Recent Trends in Complex Methods for Par­ tial Differential Equations held from July 6 to 10, 1998 at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey, sponsored by The Scientific and Tech­ nical Research Council of Turkey and the Middle East Technical University. This workshop is a continuation oftwo workshops from 1988 and 1993 at the In­ ternational Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy entitled Functional analytic Methods in Complex Analysis and Applications to Partial Differential Equations. Since classical complex analysis of one and several variables has a long tra­ dition it is of high level. But most of its basic problems are solved nowadays so that within the last few decades it has lost more and more attention. The area of complex and functional analytic methods in partial differential equations, however, is still a growing and flourishing field, in particular as these ...

New trends in ellipsometry for thin film diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masetti, E.

1987-01-01

Ellipsometric technique is both instrumentation and method for surface characterization through light polarization change measurements. After the improvement of the technique due to electrooptical components (light polarization modulator) and personal computer, ellipsometry today is getting new interest in optical thin film diagnostics because of automatized ellipsometer availability. The realization of a new instrument for light polarization measurement, the FDP (Four Detector Photopolarimeter), will allow the production of ellipsometers with improved characteristics and low cost. A survey on ellipsometric technique trend and preliminary data on the first realized FDP are reported

A Novel Method making direct use of AIRS and IASI Calibrated Radiances for Measuring Trends in Surface Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Aumann, H. H.; Ruzmaikin, A.

2014-12-01

Making unbiased measurements of trends in the surface temperatures, particularly on a gobal scale, is challenging: While the non-frozen oceans temperature measurements are plentiful and accurate, land and polar areas are much less accurately or fairly sampled. Surface temperature deduced from infrared radiometers on polar orbiting satellites (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at 1:30PM, the Interferometer Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer (IASI) at 9:30 AM and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) at 1:30PM), can produce what appear to be well sampled data, but dealing with clouds either by cloud filtering (MODIS, IASI) or cloud-clearing (AIRS) can create sampling bias. We use a novel method: Random Nadir Sampling (RNS) combined with Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis. We analyze the trend in the PDF of st1231, the water vapor absorption corrected brightness temperatures measured in the 1231 cm-1 atmospheric window channel. The advantage of this method is that trends can be directly traced to the known, less than 3 mK/yr trend for AIRS, in st1231. For this study we created PDFs from 22,000 daily RNS from the AIRS and IASI data. We characterized the PDFs by its daily 90%tile value, st1231p90, and analysed the statistical properties of the this time series between 2002 and 2014. The method was validated using the daily NOAA SST (RTGSST) from the non-frozen oceans: The mean, seasonal variability and anomaly trend of st1231p90 agree with the corrsponding values from the RTGSST and the anomaly correlation is larger than 0.9. Preliminary results (August 2014) confirm the global hiatus in the increase of the globally averaged surface temperatures between 2002 and 2014, with a change of less than 10 mK/yr. This uncertainty is dominated by the large interannual variability related to El Niño events. Further insite is gained by analyzing land/ocean, day/night, artic and antarctic trends. We observe a massive warming trend in the

Statistical modelling and RCS detrending methods provide similar estimates of long-term trend in radial growth of common beech in north-eastern France

OpenAIRE

Bontemps , Jean-Daniel; Esper , Jan

2011-01-01

International audience; Dendrochronological methods have greatly contributed to the documentation of past long-term trends in forest growth. These methods primarily focus on the high-frequency signals of tree ring chronologies. They require the removal of the ageing trend in tree growth, known as 'standardisation' or 'detrending', as a prerequisite to the estimation of such trends. Because the approach is sequential, it may however absorb part of the low-frequency historical signal. In this s...

Trends in citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Porta, Miquel; Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Ioannidis, John P A; Sanz, Sergio; Fernandez, Esteve; Bhopal, Raj; Morabia, Alfredo; Victora, Cesar; Lopez, Tomàs

2013-01-01

There are no analyses of citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature. Such analyses may shed light on how concepts and methods changed while biomedical research evolved. Our aim was to analyze the number and time trends of citations received from biomedical articles by books on epidemiological and statistical methods, and related disciplines. The data source was the Web of Science. The study books were published between 1957 and 2010. The first year of publication of the citing articles was 1945. We identified 125 books that received at least 25 citations. Books first published in 1980-1989 had the highest total and median number of citations per year. Nine of the 10 most cited texts focused on statistical methods. Hosmer & Lemeshow's Applied logistic regression received the highest number of citations and highest average annual rate. It was followed by books by Fleiss, Armitage, et al., Rothman, et al., and Kalbfleisch and Prentice. Fifth in citations per year was Sackett, et al., Evidence-based medicine. The rise of multivariate methods, clinical epidemiology, or nutritional epidemiology was reflected in the citation trends. Educational textbooks, practice-oriented books, books on epidemiological substantive knowledge, and on theory and health policies were much less cited. None of the 25 top-cited books had the theoretical or sociopolitical scope of works by Cochrane, McKeown, Rose, or Morris. Books were mainly cited to reference methods. Books first published in the 1980s continue to be most influential. Older books on theory and policies were rooted in societal and general medical concerns, while the most modern books are almost purely on methods.

Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

Trends in information behaviour research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greifeneder, Elke Susanne

2014-01-01

behaviour related publication venues between 2012 and 2014. Analysis. Publication titles, authors, years, publication venue, methods and topics were collected and quantitatively analysed. Results. Qualitative methods still dominate information behaviour research. Content analysis and participatory designs......Introduction. This paper traces current trends in information behaviour research, both in terms of methods and topics. Results are put into relation to the previous trend analysis by Julien et al. (2011) and Vakkari (2008). Method. Trends derive from a publication analysis taken from information...... are gaining terrain. Information seeking is still the major topic of interest. Important newer topics are studies focusing on users’ context and on special needs. Conclusion. Information behaviour research has evolved a great deal over the last years and has taken on new methods and new topics. A discussion...

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

Trends in statistical methods in articles published in Archives of Plastic Surgery between 2012 and 2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Kyunghwa; Jung, Inkyung

2018-05-01

This review article presents an assessment of trends in statistical methods and an evaluation of their appropriateness in articles published in the Archives of Plastic Surgery (APS) from 2012 to 2017. We reviewed 388 original articles published in APS between 2012 and 2017. We categorized the articles that used statistical methods according to the type of statistical method, the number of statistical methods, and the type of statistical software used. We checked whether there were errors in the description of statistical methods and results. A total of 230 articles (59.3%) published in APS between 2012 and 2017 used one or more statistical method. Within these articles, there were 261 applications of statistical methods with continuous or ordinal outcomes, and 139 applications of statistical methods with categorical outcome. The Pearson chi-square test (17.4%) and the Mann-Whitney U test (14.4%) were the most frequently used methods. Errors in describing statistical methods and results were found in 133 of the 230 articles (57.8%). Inadequate description of P-values was the most common error (39.1%). Among the 230 articles that used statistical methods, 71.7% provided details about the statistical software programs used for the analyses. SPSS was predominantly used in the articles that presented statistical analyses. We found that the use of statistical methods in APS has increased over the last 6 years. It seems that researchers have been paying more attention to the proper use of statistics in recent years. It is expected that these positive trends will continue in APS.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

Science.gov (United States)

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

Trends in marine fish catches at Pattani Fishery Port (1999-2003)

OpenAIRE

Wanchamai Karntanut; Premwadee Komontree; Phattrawan Tongkumchum

2006-01-01

This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of the various types of marine fish landed at Pattani Fishery Port, allowing for trend and seasonality, using official data during 1999-2003. The data comprise daily and monthly totals by weight for eight types of fish (mackerel, other food fish, squid, scads, trash fish, shrimp, lobster and crab). The statistical methods are one-way analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and time series forecasting using tre...

Biosensors in the small scale: methods and technology trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Senveli, Sukru U; Tigli, Onur

2013-03-01

This study presents a review on biosensors with an emphasis on recent developments in the field. A brief history accompanied by a detailed description of the biosensor concepts is followed by rising trends observed in contemporary micro- and nanoscale biosensors. Performance metrics to quantify and compare different detection mechanisms are presented. A comprehensive analysis on various types and subtypes of biosensors are given. The fields of interest within the scope of this review are label-free electrical, mechanical and optical biosensors as well as other emerging and popular technologies. Especially, the latter half of the last decade is reviewed for the types, methods and results of the most prominently researched detection mechanisms. Tables are provided for comparison of various competing technologies in the literature. The conclusion part summarises the noteworthy advantages and disadvantages of all biosensors reviewed in this study. Furthermore, future directions that the micro- and nanoscale biosensing technologies are expected to take are provided along with the immediate outlook.

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Innovations and trends in meat consumption: an application of the Delphi method in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Chamorro, Antonio; Miranda, Francisco J; Rubio, Sergio; Valero, Víctor

2012-12-01

The meat sector in Spain is an important industry. However, traditional consumption is changing as a result of the country's economic crisis and the new structure of households. The objective of the present study was to identify trends in meat consumption in Spain extrapolated to 2016, and the main innovations that should be of interest to firms in the sector. The study was conducted in 2011 using the Delphi method with the participation of 26 experts. The results showed that, while the demand for meat will not vary significantly in amount, it will do so in composition, with chicken replacing beef as the meat of most importance in the shopping basket. In addition, significant growth is expected in certified meat, but the demand for organic meat will not take off. Neither will there be no significant changes in end purchase formats, but there will be a clear trend in consumers' purchasing decision criteria away from price, external appearance and origin towards quality certification and the attributes of the packaging. With respect to end purchase channels, the experts estimate that the current trend will be accentuated with increasing market share for large supermarkets and major distribution brands. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subanar Subanar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

Some recent trends in computer simulations of aqueous double layers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spohr, E.

2003-01-01

Recent molecular simulations of the electric double layer between an aqueous and a metallic phase are reviewed. Several trends in the field can be identified: (i) the increasing use of ab initio simulation methods, most notably the Car-Parrinello method, allows to combine a statistical mechanical description of the double layer with a description of elementary chemical processes on the electronic structure level; (ii) the application of free-energy methods in one and (recently) two dimensions to describe chemical reactivity within and beyond the framework of the Marcus theory of electron transfer; and (iii) at high concentrations, direct simulations of two-phase systems with an aqueous solution and a charged or uncharged solid phase or surface can model the entire double layer region

Automation of Classical QEEG Trending Methods for Early Detection of Delayed Cerebral Ischemia: More Work to Do.

Science.gov (United States)

Wickering, Ellis; Gaspard, Nicolas; Zafar, Sahar; Moura, Valdery J; Biswal, Siddharth; Bechek, Sophia; OʼConnor, Kathryn; Rosenthal, Eric S; Westover, M Brandon

2016-06-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate automated implementations of continuous EEG monitoring-based detection of delayed cerebral ischemia based on methods used in classical retrospective studies. We studied 95 patients with either Fisher 3 or Hunt Hess 4 to 5 aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage who were admitted to the Neurosciences ICU and underwent continuous EEG monitoring. We implemented several variations of two classical algorithms for automated detection of delayed cerebral ischemia based on decreases in alpha-delta ratio and relative alpha variability. Of 95 patients, 43 (45%) developed delayed cerebral ischemia. Our automated implementation of the classical alpha-delta ratio-based trending method resulted in a sensitivity and specificity (Se,Sp) of (80,27)%, compared with the values of (100,76)% reported in the classic study using similar methods in a nonautomated fashion. Our automated implementation of the classical relative alpha variability-based trending method yielded (Se,Sp) values of (65,43)%, compared with (100,46)% reported in the classic study using nonautomated analysis. Our findings suggest that improved methods to detect decreases in alpha-delta ratio and relative alpha variability are needed before an automated EEG-based early delayed cerebral ischemia detection system is ready for clinical use.

Shielding studies and LMFBR development achievements and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salvatores, M.

1990-01-01

Shielding studies in the last decade have been performed in cooperation with several European countries. Shielding has become a mature discipline that takes advantage of improvements in data and methods and supplies the designer with a better set of tools to tackle much stricter requirements. The paper describes achievements to date and the Super Phenix start-up experiments. The present trends to design (a) reduced axial/radial shields, (b) cores that allow internal storage of irradiated sub-assemblies, and (c) cores with specific axial/radial peripheral core zone architectures to improve sodium void reactivity effects require further studies and experimental validation

Worldwide Protein Data Bank validation information: usage and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Smart, Oliver S; Horský, Vladimír; Gore, Swanand; Svobodová Vařeková, Radka; Bendová, Veronika; Kleywegt, Gerard J; Velankar, Sameer

2018-03-01

Realising the importance of assessing the quality of the biomolecular structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank (PDB), the Worldwide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB) partners established Validation Task Forces to obtain advice on the methods and standards to be used to validate structures determined by X-ray crystallography, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and three-dimensional electron cryo-microscopy. The resulting wwPDB validation pipeline is an integral part of the wwPDB OneDep deposition, biocuration and validation system. The wwPDB Validation Service webserver (https://validate.wwpdb.org) can be used to perform checks prior to deposition. Here, it is shown how validation metrics can be combined to produce an overall score that allows the ranking of macromolecular structures and domains in search results. The ValTrends DB database provides users with a convenient way to access and analyse validation information and other properties of X-ray crystal structures in the PDB, including investigating trends in and correlations between different structure properties and validation metrics.

Trends in study design and the statistical methods employed in a leading general medicine journal.

Science.gov (United States)

Gosho, M; Sato, Y; Nagashima, K; Takahashi, S

2018-02-01

Study design and statistical methods have become core components of medical research, and the methodology has become more multifaceted and complicated over time. The study of the comprehensive details and current trends of study design and statistical methods is required to support the future implementation of well-planned clinical studies providing information about evidence-based medicine. Our purpose was to illustrate study design and statistical methods employed in recent medical literature. This was an extension study of Sato et al. (N Engl J Med 2017; 376: 1086-1087), which reviewed 238 articles published in 2015 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and briefly summarized the statistical methods employed in NEJM. Using the same database, we performed a new investigation of the detailed trends in study design and individual statistical methods that were not reported in the Sato study. Due to the CONSORT statement, prespecification and justification of sample size are obligatory in planning intervention studies. Although standard survival methods (eg Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression model) were most frequently applied, the Gray test and Fine-Gray proportional hazard model for considering competing risks were sometimes used for a more valid statistical inference. With respect to handling missing data, model-based methods, which are valid for missing-at-random data, were more frequently used than single imputation methods. These methods are not recommended as a primary analysis, but they have been applied in many clinical trials. Group sequential design with interim analyses was one of the standard designs, and novel design, such as adaptive dose selection and sample size re-estimation, was sometimes employed in NEJM. Model-based approaches for handling missing data should replace single imputation methods for primary analysis in the light of the information found in some publications. Use of adaptive design with interim analyses is increasing

Modifying conjoint methods to model managers' reactions to business environmental trends : an application to modeling retailer reactions to sales trends

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oppewal, H.; Louviere, J.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2000-01-01

This article proposes and demonstrates how conjoint methods can be adapted to allow the modeling of managerial reactions to various changes in economic and competitive environments and their effects on observed sales levels. Because in general micro-level data on strategic decision making over time

Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a

Googling trends in conservation biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Trends in computer hardware and software.

Science.gov (United States)

Frankenfeld, F M

1993-04-01

Previously identified and current trends in the development of computer systems and in the use of computers for health care applications are reviewed. Trends identified in a 1982 article were increasing miniaturization and archival ability, increasing software costs, increasing software independence, user empowerment through new software technologies, shorter computer-system life cycles, and more rapid development and support of pharmaceutical services. Most of these trends continue today. Current trends in hardware and software include the increasing use of reduced instruction-set computing, migration to the UNIX operating system, the development of large software libraries, microprocessor-based smart terminals that allow remote validation of data, speech synthesis and recognition, application generators, fourth-generation languages, computer-aided software engineering, object-oriented technologies, and artificial intelligence. Current trends specific to pharmacy and hospitals are the withdrawal of vendors of hospital information systems from the pharmacy market, improved linkage of information systems within hospitals, and increased regulation by government. The computer industry and its products continue to undergo dynamic change. Software development continues to lag behind hardware, and its high cost is offsetting the savings provided by hardware.

The development of trend and pattern analysis methods for incident data by CEC'S joint research at Ispra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amesz, J.; Kalfsbeek, H.W.

1990-01-01

The Abnormal Occurrences Reporting System of the Commission of the European Communities was developed by the Joint Research Centre at Ispra in the period 1982 through 1985. It collects in a unique format all safety relevant events from NPPs as recorded in the participating countries. The system has been set-up with the specific objective of providing an advanced tool for a synoptic analysis of a large number of events, identifying patterns of sequences, trends, multiple dependencies between incident descriptors, precursors to severe incidents, performance indicators etc. This paper gives an overview of the development of trend and pattern analysis techniques of two different types: - event sequence analysis; - statistical methods. Though these methods have been developed and applied in relation with the AORS data, they can be regarded as generic in the sense that they may be applied to any incident reporting system satisfying the necessary criteria as to homogeneity and completeness, for rendering valid results

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2009-01-01

Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

Trends in mortality decrease and economic growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Niu, G.; Melenberg, B.

2014-01-01

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are

Review of Comprehensive Evaluation Methods for Power Quality and Its Trend in New Generation Energy System

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ruihua; Wang, Rong; Liu, Qunying; Yang, Li; Xi, Chuan; Wang, Wei; Li, Lingzhou; Zhao, Zhoufang; Zhou, Ying

2018-02-01

With China’s new energy generation grid connected capacity being in the forefront of the world and the uncertainty of new energy sources, such as wind energy and solar energy, it is be of great significance to study scientific and comprehensive assessment of power quality. On the foundation of analysizing the current power quality index systematically and objectively, the new energy grid power quality analysis method and comprehensive evaluation method, this paper tentatively explored the trend of the new generation of energy system power quality comprehensive evaluation.

Three-dimensional trend mapping using gamma-ray well logs: Simpson Group, south-central Kansas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doveton, J.H.; Davis, J.C.; Zhu Ke-an

1984-01-01

Gamma-ray logs are useful indicators of shale content as a function of depth. When several gamma-ray logs are drawn from an area, they may be interpreted in terms of shale variation in the 3 dimensions of geographic space and depth. (For several years, statistical moments of logs have been mapped as an expression of major trends of depth variation in lithologic development across an area. Moments have the additional valuable property that they also define unique polynomial trends as a function of depth. This property allows the interpolation of moments between well control to generate a 3-dimensional grid of shale referenced to any location and depth. The method was applied to the Simpson Group (Ordovician) of southcentral Kansas. Graphic results of the study outline the shapes of major sandstone and shale bodies in a series of cross sections.) The areal disposition of the initial transgressive sandstone is revealed on a basal slice map. The method is general and can be used in conjunction with other logs. As an example, use of either a neutron, density, or sonic log could be applied to 3-dimensional trend representations of porosity variation in reservoir units

A Study on Environmental Research Trends Using Text-Mining Method - Focus on Spatial information and ICT -

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, M. J.; Oh, K. Y.; Joung-ho, L.

2016-12-01

Recently there are many research about analysing the interaction between entities by text-mining analysis in various fields. In this paper, we aimed to quantitatively analyse research-trends in the area of environmental research relating either spatial information or ICT (Information and Communications Technology) by Text-mining analysis. To do this, we applied low-dimensional embedding method, clustering analysis, and association rule to find meaningful associative patterns of key words frequently appeared in the articles. As the authors suppose that KCI (Korea Citation Index) articles reflect academic demands, total 1228 KCI articles that have been published from 1996 to 2015 were reviewed and analysed by Text-mining method. First, we derived KCI articles from NDSL(National Discovery for Science Leaders) site. And then we pre-processed their key-words elected from abstract and then classified those in separable sectors. We investigated the appearance rates and association rule of key-words for articles in the two fields: spatial-information and ICT. In order to detect historic trends, analysis was conducted separately for the four periods: 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015. These analysis were conducted with the usage of R-software. As a result, we conformed that environmental research relating spatial information mainly focused upon such fields as `GIS(35%)', `Remote-Sensing(25%)', `environmental theme map(15.7%)'. Next, `ICT technology(23.6%)', `ICT service(5.4%)', `mobile(24%)', `big data(10%)', `AI(7%)' are primarily emerging from environmental research relating ICT. Thus, from the analysis results, this paper asserts that research trends and academic progresses are well-structured to review recent spatial information and ICT technology and the outcomes of the analysis can be an adequate guidelines to establish environment policies and strategies. KEY WORDS: Big data, Test-mining, Environmental research, Spatial-information, ICT Acknowledgements: The

Automatic trend estimation

CERN Document Server

Vamos¸, C˘alin

2013-01-01

Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

2016-03-11

Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures

Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, C.; Qin, C.

2014-01-01

This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in

FEOL technology trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taur, Y.; Ning, T.H.

1998-01-01

Trends in front-end-of-line technology are discussed. At the chip level, many of the important parameters are published in the National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors in 1994. At the device and circuit level, both bipolar and CMOS are scalable. However, the large standby power of bipolar circuits severely limits the integration level of bipolar chips. The inherently low standby power of CMOS, on the contrary, allows the integration level of CMOS circuits to continue increasing with scaling. In reality, both the electric field and power density of CMOS devices have been gradually rising over the generations owing to non-scaling effects of thermal voltage and silicon bandgap. As power supply voltage reaches 1.5V and below, circuit performance can only be gained at the expense of higher active or standby power of the chip. Implications of device scaling on contact and silicide technology are addressed. Trends of local and global interconnect scaling are discussed. (orig.)

Final Report-- A Novel Storage Method for Concentrating Solar Power Plants Allowing Storage at High Temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morris, Jeffrey F.

2014-09-29

The main objective of the proposed work was the development and testing of a storage method that has the potential to fundamentally change the solar thermal industry. The development of a mathematical model that describes the phenomena involved in the heat storage and recovery was also a main objective of this work. Therefore, the goal was to prepare a design package allowing reliable scale-up and optimization of design.

40 CFR 35.2025 - Allowance and advance of allowance.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... advance of allowance. (a) Allowance. Step 2+3 and Step 3 grant agreements will include an allowance for facilities planning and design of the project and Step 7 agreements will include an allowance for facility... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Allowance and advance of allowance. 35...

Interfractional trend analysis of dose differences based on 2D transit portal dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persoon, L C G G; Nijsten, S M J J G; Wilbrink, F J; Podesta, M; Snaith, J A D; Lustberg, T; Van Elmpt, W J C; Van Gils, F; Verhaegen, F

2012-01-01

Dose delivery of a radiotherapy treatment can be influenced by a number of factors. It has been demonstrated that the electronic portal imaging device (EPID) is valuable for transit portal dosimetry verification. Patient related dose differences can emerge at any time during treatment and can be categorized in two types: (1) systematic—appearing repeatedly, (2) random—appearing sporadically during treatment. The aim of this study is to investigate how systematic and random information appears in 2D transit dose distributions measured in the EPID plane over the entire course of a treatment and how this information can be used to examine interfractional trends, building toward a methodology to support adaptive radiotherapy. To create a trend overview of the interfractional changes in transit dose, the predicted portal dose for the different beams is compared to a measured portal dose using a γ evaluation. For each beam of the delivered fraction, information is extracted from the γ images to differentiate systematic from random dose delivery errors. From the systematic differences of a fraction for a projected anatomical structures, several metrics are extracted like percentage pixels with |γ| > 1. We demonstrate for four example cases the trends and dose difference causes which can be detected with this method. Two sample prostate cases show the occurrence of a random and systematic difference and identify the organ that causes the difference. In a lung cancer case a trend is shown of a rapidly diminishing atelectasis (lung fluid) during the course of treatment, which was detected with this trend analysis method. The final example is a breast cancer case where we show the influence of set-up differences on the 2D transit dose. A method is presented based on 2D portal transit dosimetry to record dose changes throughout the course of treatment, and to allow trend analysis of dose discrepancies. We show in example cases that this method can identify the causes of

Fixed-Node Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo Method on Dissociation Energies and Their Trends for R-X Bonds (R = Me, Et, i-Pr, t-Bu).

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Aiqiang; Zhou, Xiaojun; Wang, Ting; Wang, Fan

2018-05-15

Achieving both bond dissociation energies (BDEs) and their trends for the R-X bonds with R = Me, Et, i-Pr, and t-Bu reliably is nontrivial. Density functional theory (DFT) methods with traditional exchange-correlation functionals usually have large error on both the BDEs and their trends. The M06-2X functional gives rise to reliable BDEs, but the relative BDEs are determined not as accurately. More demanding approaches such as some double-hybrid functionals, for example, G4 and CCSD(T), are generally required to achieve the BDEs and their trends reliably. The fixed-node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo method (FN-DMC) is employed to calculated BDEs of these R-X bonds with X = H, CH 3 , OCH 3 , OH, and F in this work. The single Slater-Jastrow wave function is adopted as trial wave function, and pseudopotentials (PPs) developed for quantum Monte Carlo calculations are chosen. Error of these PPs is modest in wave function methods, while it is more pronounced in DFT calculations. Our results show that accuracy of BDEs with FN-DMC is similar to that of M06-2X and G4, and trends in BDEs are calculated more reliably than M06-2X. Both BDEs and trends in BDEs of these bonds are reproduced reasonably with FN-DMC. FN-DMC using PPs can thus be applied to BDEs and their trends of similar chemical bonds in larger molecules reliably and provide valuable information on properties of these molecules.

Corrective action program at the Krsko NPP. Trending and analysis of minor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bach, B.; Kavsek, D.

2007-01-01

Industry and On-site Operating Experience has shown that the significant events, minor events and near misses all share something in common: latent weaknesses that result in failed barriers and the same or similar (root) causes for that failure. All these types of events differ only in their resulting consequences: minor events and near misses have no immediate or significant impact to plant safety or reliability. However, the significant events are usually preceded by a number of those kinds of events and could be prevented from occurring if the root cause(s) of these precursor events could be identified and eliminated. It would be therefore poor management to leave minor events and near misses unreported and unanalysed. Reporting and analysing of minor events allows detection of latent weaknesses that may indicate the need for improvement. The benefit of low level event analysis is that deficiencies can be found in barriers that normally go unchallenged and may not be known that they are ineffective in stopping a significant event. In addition, large numbers of minor events and near misses may increase the probability of occurrence of a significant event, which in itself is a sufficient reason for addressing these types of events. However, as it is not often practical neither feasible to perform a detailed root cause determination for every minor events, trending and trend analysis are used to identify and correct the causes prior to their resulting in a significant event. Trending is monitoring a change in frequency of similar minor events occurrence. Adverse trend is an increase in the frequency of minor events which are sorted by commonality such as common equipment failure, human factors, common or similar causal factors, activity etc. or worsening performance of processes that has been trending. The primary goal of any trending programme should be to identify an adverse trend early enough that the operating organization can initiate an investigation to help

Statistical process control methods allow the analysis and improvement of anesthesia care.

Science.gov (United States)

Fasting, Sigurd; Gisvold, Sven E

2003-10-01

Quality aspects of the anesthetic process are reflected in the rate of intraoperative adverse events. The purpose of this report is to illustrate how the quality of the anesthesia process can be analyzed using statistical process control methods, and exemplify how this analysis can be used for quality improvement. We prospectively recorded anesthesia-related data from all anesthetics for five years. The data included intraoperative adverse events, which were graded into four levels, according to severity. We selected four adverse events, representing important quality and safety aspects, for statistical process control analysis. These were: inadequate regional anesthesia, difficult emergence from general anesthesia, intubation difficulties and drug errors. We analyzed the underlying process using 'p-charts' for statistical process control. In 65,170 anesthetics we recorded adverse events in 18.3%; mostly of lesser severity. Control charts were used to define statistically the predictable normal variation in problem rate, and then used as a basis for analysis of the selected problems with the following results: Inadequate plexus anesthesia: stable process, but unacceptably high failure rate; Difficult emergence: unstable process, because of quality improvement efforts; Intubation difficulties: stable process, rate acceptable; Medication errors: methodology not suited because of low rate of errors. By applying statistical process control methods to the analysis of adverse events, we have exemplified how this allows us to determine if a process is stable, whether an intervention is required, and if quality improvement efforts have the desired effect.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

2012-12-01

Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

Youth Suicide Trends in Finland, 1969-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Lahti, Anniina; Rasanen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa; Keranen, Sirpa; Hakko, Helina

2011-01-01

Background: There are only a few recent studies on secular trends in child and adolescent suicides. We examine here trends in rates and methods of suicide among young people in Finland, where suicide rates at these ages are among the highest in the world. Methods: The data, obtained from Statistics Finland, consisted of all suicides (n = 901)…

Ratemaking and accounting for allowances and compliance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The regulatory treatment of compliance costs and allowances will significantly affect both the utility's CAAA compliance decisions and the cost of compliance. Sections in this chapter include ratemaking treatment of allowances, utility buy-ins, the market test of compliance costs and utility incentive, FERC account classification, measuring the value of allowances, inventory methods for allowances, expense recognition of allowances, regulatory-created assets and liabilities, and application of the FERC proposal. 8 refs., 1 tab

Population and trends in the global mean temperature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tol, Richard S.J.

2017-01-01

The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

Trends in Radical Surgical Treatment Methods for Breast Malignancies in China: A Multicenter 10-Year Retrospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Bai-Lin; Sivasubramaniam, Priya G; Zhang, Qian; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Bin; Gao, Ji-Dong; Tang, Zhong-Hua; Chen, Guo-Ji; Xie, Xiao-Ming; Wang, Zhongzhao; Yang, Hong-Jian; He, Jian-Jun; Li, Hui; Li, Jia-Yuan; Fan, Jin-Hu; Wang, Xiang; Qiao, You-Lin

2015-09-01

Incidence rates of breast cancer continue to rise in the People's Republic of China. The purpose of this study was to describe Chinese trends in radical surgical modalities and influential imaging and demographic factors for breast malignancies. This study was a hospital-based, multicenter, 10-year (1999-2008), retrospective study. Descriptive statistical tests were used to illustrate information regarding radical surgical trends for the treatment of breast malignancies. Chi-square tests were used to assess effect of demographic factors in addition to imaging and pathological data on the specific surgical method. A total of 4,211 patients were enrolled in the survey. Among them, 3,335 patients with stage 0 to stage III disease undergoing mastectomy or breast-conserving surgery (BCS) were included in the final analysis. The rate of BCS increased from 1.53% in 1999 to 11.88% in 2008. The rate of mastectomy declined over this time period, from 98.47% in 1999 to 88.12% in 2008, with increasing use of diagnostic imaging methods and pathological biopsies. A significantly greater percentage of patients with office work, high education levels, unmarried status, younger age, and early pathological stages preferred BCS compared with mastectomy. Rates of mastectomy in China remain elevated due to diagnosis at higher stages; however, because of increased use of diagnostic imaging, improvement of biopsy methods, and patient education, rates of less invasive lumpectomy are increasing and rates of mastectomy have decreased in China. In this study, 4,211 cases were collected from 1999 to 2008 through a multicenter retrospective study of varying geographic and socioeconomic areas to illustrate trends of surgeries in the People's Republic of China. The correlations between demographic and tumor characteristics and among methods of surgical treatment were explored. This study shows that the rate of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) increased and the rate of mastectomy declined over

Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard E Cibulskis

2011-12-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

Recent Trends in Analytical Methods to Determine New Psychoactive Substances in Hair.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyriakou, Chrystalla; Pellegrini, Manuela; García-Algar, Oscar; Marinelli, Enrico; Zaami, Simona

2017-01-01

New Psychoactive Substances (NPS) belong to several chemical classes, including phenethylamines, piperazines, synthetic cathinones and synthetic cannabinoids. Development and validation of analytical methods for the determination of NPS both in traditional and alternative matrices is of crucial importance to study drug metabolism and to associate consumption to clinical outcomes and eventual intoxication symptoms. Among different biological matrices, hair is the one with the widest time window to investigate drug-related history and demonstrate past intake. The aim of this paper was to overview the trends of the rapidly evolving analytical methods for the determination of NPS in hair and the usefulness of these methods when applied to real cases. A number of rapid and sensitive methods for the determination of NPS in hair matrix has been recently published, most of them using liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Hair digestion and subsequent solid phase extraction or liquid-liquid extraction were described as well as extraction in organic solvents. For most of the methods limits of quantification at picogram per milligram hair were obtained. The measured concentrations for most of the NPS in real samples were in the range of picograms of drug per milligram of hair. Interpretation of the results and lack of cut-off values for the discrimination between chronic consumption and occasional use or external contamination are still challenging. Methods for the determination of NPS in hair are continually emerging to include as many NPS as possible due to the great demand for their detection. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Bernhard

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

Improving allowed outage time and surveillance test interval requirements: a study of their interactions using probabilistic methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.A.; Serradell, V.G.; Samanta, P.K.

1995-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) define the limits and conditions for operating nuclear plants safely. We selected the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCO) and Surveillance Requirements (SR), both within TS, as the main items to be evaluated using probabilistic methods. In particular, we focused on the Allowed Outage Time (AOT) and Surveillance Test Interval (STI) requirements in LCO and SR, respectively. Already, significant operating and design experience has accumulated revealing several problems which require modifications in some TS rules. Developments in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) allow the evaluation of effects due to such modifications in AOT and STI from a risk point of view. Thus, some changes have already been adopted in some plants. However, the combined effect of several changes in AOT and STI, i.e. through their interactions, is not addressed. This paper presents a methodology which encompasses, along with the definition of AOT and STI interactions, the quantification of interactions in terms of risk using PSA methods, an approach for evaluating simultaneous AOT and STI modifications, and an assessment of strategies for giving flexibility to plant operation through simultaneous changes on AOT and STI using trade-off-based risk criteria

Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-05-01

Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

New trends in computational collective intelligence

CERN Document Server

Kim, Sang-Wook; Trawiński, Bogdan

2015-01-01

This book consists of 20 chapters in which the authors deal with different theoretical and practical aspects of new trends in Collective Computational Intelligence techniques. Computational Collective Intelligence methods and algorithms are one the current trending research topics from areas related to Artificial Intelligence, Soft Computing or Data Mining among others. Computational Collective Intelligence is a rapidly growing field that is most often understood as an AI sub-field dealing with soft computing methods which enable making group decisions and processing knowledge among autonomous units acting in distributed environments. Web-based Systems, Social Networks, and Multi-Agent Systems very often need these tools for working out consistent knowledge states, resolving conflicts and making decisions. The chapters included in this volume cover a selection of topics and new trends in several domains related to Collective Computational Intelligence: Language and Knowledge Processing, Data Mining Methods an...

Trends in the investigation of social determinants of health: selected themes and methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roger Keller Celeste

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze bibliometric trends of topics relevant to the epidemiologic research of social determinants of health. A search of the PubMed database, covering the period 1985-2007, was performed for the topics: socioeconomic factors, sex, race/ethnicity, discrimination/prejudice, social capital/support, lifecourse, income inequality, stress, behavioral research, contextual effects, residential segregation, multilevel modeling, regression based indices to measure inequalities, and structural equation modeling/causal diagrams/path analysis. The absolute, but not the relative, frequency of publications increased for all themes. Total publications in PubMed increased 2.3 times, while the subsets of epidemiology/public health and social epidemiologic themes/methods increased by factors of 5.3 and 5.2, respectively. Only multilevel and contextual analyses had a growth over and above that observed for epidemiology/public health. We conclude that there is clearly room for wider use of established techniques, and for new methods to emerge when they satisfy theoretical needs.

Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

2015-01-01

For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field. PMID:26110332

Two-dimensional orthonormal trend surfaces for prospecting

Science.gov (United States)

Sarma, D. D.; Selvaraj, J. B.

Orthonormal polynomials have distinct advantages over conventional polynomials: the equations for evaluating trend coefficients are not ill-conditioned and the convergence power of this method is greater compared to the least-squares approximation and therefore the approach by orthonormal functions provides a powerful alternative to the least-squares method. In this paper, orthonormal polynomials in two dimensions are obtained using the Gram-Schmidt method for a polynomial series of the type: Z = 1 + x + y + x2 + xy + y2 + … + yn, where x and y are the locational coordinates and Z is the value of the variable under consideration. Trend-surface analysis, which has wide applications in prospecting, has been carried out using the orthonormal polynomial approach for two sample sets of data from India concerned with gold accumulation from the Kolar Gold Field, and gravity data. A comparison of the orthonormal polynomial trend surfaces with those obtained by the classical least-squares method has been made for the two data sets. In both the situations, the orthonormal polynomial surfaces gave an improved fit to the data. A flowchart and a FORTRAN-IV computer program for deriving orthonormal polynomials of any order and for using them to fit trend surfaces is included. The program has provision for logarithmic transformation of the Z variable. If log-transformation is performed the predicted Z values are reconverted to the original units and the trend-surface map generated for use. The illustration of gold assay data related to the Champion lode system of Kolar Gold Fields, for which a 9th-degree orthonormal trend surface was fit, could be used for further prospecting the area.

Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingjing Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

A Parameter Identification Method for Helicopter Noise Source Identification and Physics-Based Semi-Empirical Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Greenwood, Eric, II; Schmitz, Fredric H.

2010-01-01

A new physics-based parameter identification method for rotor harmonic noise sources is developed using an acoustic inverse simulation technique. This new method allows for the identification of individual rotor harmonic noise sources and allows them to be characterized in terms of their individual non-dimensional governing parameters. This new method is applied to both wind tunnel measurements and ground noise measurements of two-bladed rotors. The method is shown to match the parametric trends of main rotor Blade-Vortex Interaction (BVI) noise, allowing accurate estimates of BVI noise to be made for operating conditions based on a small number of measurements taken at different operating conditions.

Modelling changes in small area disability free life expectancy: trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Congdon, Peter

2014-12-20

Existing analyses of trends in disability free life expectancy (DFLE) are mainly at aggregate level (national or broad regional). However, major differences in DFLE, and trends in these expectancies, exist between different neighbourhoods within regions, so supporting a small area perspective. However, this raises issues regarding the stability of conventional life table estimation methods at small area scales. This paper advocates a Bayesian borrowing strength technique to model trends in mortality and disability differences across 625 small areas in London, using illness data from the 2001 and 2011 population Censuses, and deaths data for two periods centred on the Census years. From this analysis, estimates of total life expectancy and DFLE are obtained. The spatio-temporal modelling perspective allows assessment of whether significant compression or expansion of morbidity has occurred in each small area. Appropriate models involve random effects that recognise correlation and interaction effects over relevant dimensions of the observed deaths and illness data (areas, ages), as well as major spatial trends (e.g. gradients in health and mortality according to area deprivation category). Whilst borrowing strength is a primary consideration (and demonstrated by raised precision for estimated life expectancies), so also is model parsimony. Therefore, pure borrowing strength models are compared with models allowing selection of random age-area interaction effects using a spike-slab prior, and in fact borrowing strength combined with random effects selection provides better fit. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

42 CFR 61.9 - Payments: Stipends; dependency allowances; travel allowances.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Payments: Stipends; dependency allowances; travel... FELLOWSHIPS, INTERNSHIPS, TRAINING FELLOWSHIPS Regular Fellowships § 61.9 Payments: Stipends; dependency allowances; travel allowances. Payments for stipends, dependency allowances, and the travel allowances...

The use of google trends in health care research: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuti, Sudhakar V; Wayda, Brian; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Wang, Sisi; Dreyer, Rachel P; Chen, Serene I; Murugiah, Karthik

2014-01-01

Google Trends is a novel, freely accessible tool that allows users to interact with Internet search data, which may provide deep insights into population behavior and health-related phenomena. However, there is limited knowledge about its potential uses and limitations. We therefore systematically reviewed health care literature using Google Trends to classify articles by topic and study aim; evaluate the methodology and validation of the tool; and address limitations for its use in research. PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent reviewers systematically identified studies utilizing Google Trends for health care research from MEDLINE and PubMed. Seventy studies met our inclusion criteria. Google Trends publications increased seven-fold from 2009 to 2013. Studies were classified into four topic domains: infectious disease (27% of articles), mental health and substance use (24%), other non-communicable diseases (16%), and general population behavior (33%). By use, 27% of articles utilized Google Trends for casual inference, 39% for description, and 34% for surveillance. Among surveillance studies, 92% were validated against a reference standard data source, and 80% of studies using correlation had a correlation statistic ≥0.70. Overall, 67% of articles provided a rationale for their search input. However, only 7% of articles were reproducible based on complete documentation of search strategy. We present a checklist to facilitate appropriate methodological documentation for future studies. A limitation of the study is the challenge of classifying heterogeneous studies utilizing a novel data source. Google Trends is being used to study health phenomena in a variety of topic domains in myriad ways. However, poor documentation of methods precludes the reproducibility of the findings. Such documentation would enable other researchers to determine the consistency of results provided by Google Trends for a well-specified query over time. Furthermore, greater

Energy models: methods and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reuter, A [Division of Energy Management and Planning, Verbundplan, Klagenfurt (Austria); Kuehner, R [IER Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany); Wohlgemuth, N [Department of Economy, University of Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt (Austria)

1997-12-31

Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of `energy models`, computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning. 2 figs., 19 refs.

Energy models: methods and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.; Wohlgemuth, N.

1996-01-01

Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of 'energy models', computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning

Underground coal mining - methods, equipment developments and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singhal, R

1988-12-01

Underground mines are truly beginning to accept the so-called 'high tech' technology evident in other industries. Automation, remote control and robotics have taken an added significance. Wireless communication, mine-wide equipment health and performance monitoring, and transmission of data from deeper levels to surface is moving towards becoming the norm. There is emphasis on developing and applying continuous mining systems, as well as on modifying cyclical discontinuous methods to continuous systems. Multi-purpose equipment is also being developed. Technology transfer is playing its role - equipment and systems from surface coal mining are being applied to underground mining and vice-versa. At the American Mining Congress Exhibition held in Chicago in April 1988, a variety of equipment for underground mining was displayed including coal face equipment such as shearer loaders, conveyors and powered supports, and equipment for room-and-pillar coal mining. The trend continues to be towards high power machines equipped with a variety of electronics and sensors, safety devices, and alarm systems. Ancillary equipment on display covered a variety of cutting drums, cutting tools, conveying equipment and so on. In room-and-pillar mining, the overall emphasis was on moving away from the cyclical nature of the work. Transportation by shuttle cars must be replaced by continuous transport systems such as conveyors. Experience from Australia has shown that the application of continuous haulage and breaker line supports has permitted a doubling of production from room-and-pillar systems. Production levels of 3,000tpd have already been achieved, and 4,000tpd is considered achievable.

NH AND Mg INDEX TRENDS IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serven, Jedidiah; Worthey, Guy; Toloba, Elisa; Sanchez-Blazquez, Patricia

2011-01-01

We examine the spectrum in the vicinity of the NH3360 index of Davidge and Clark, which was defined to measure the NH absorption around 3360 A and shows almost no trend with velocity dispersion, unlike other N-sensitive indices, which show a strong trend. Computing the effect of individual elements on the integrated spectrum with synthetic stellar population integrated spectra, we find that, while being well correlated with nitrogen abundance, NH3360 is almost equally well anti-correlated with Mg abundance. This prompts the definition of two new indices, Mg3334, which is mostly sensitive to magnesium, and NH3375, which is mostly sensitive to nitrogen. Rather surprisingly, we find that the new NH3375 index shows a trend versus optical absorption feature indices that is as shallow as the NH3360 index. We hypothesize that the lack of a strong index trend in these near-UV indices is due to the presence of an old metal-poor component of the galactic population. Comparison of observed index trends and those predicted by models shows that a modest fraction of an old, metal-poor stellar population could easily account for the observed flat trend in these near-UV indices while still allowing substantial N abundance increase in the larger galaxies.

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, H Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

2017-02-03

The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (Pyear (Pyears, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all

Computer Science in High School Graduation Requirements. ECS Education Trends (Updated)

Science.gov (United States)

Zinth, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Allowing high school students to fulfill a math or science high school graduation requirement via a computer science credit may encourage more student to pursue computer science coursework. This Education Trends report is an update to the original report released in April 2015 and explores state policies that allow or require districts to apply…

Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention: Data Trends & Maps

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The CDC Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention's Data Trends & Maps online tool allows searching for and view of health indicators related to Heart...

Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. Burrows

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. METHODS: Register data on income...... quartile. The results do not provide support for a uniformly extension of pension age for all....

Utility allowed returns and market extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murry, D.A.; Nan, G.D.; Harrington, B.M.

1993-01-01

In recent years interest rates have fluctuated from exceptionally high levels in the early 1980s to their current levels, the lowest in two decades. Observers and analysts generally have assumed that allowed returns by regulatory commissions follow the movement of interest rates; indeed some analysts use a risk premium method to estimate the cost of common equity, assuming a constant and linear relationship between interest rates and the cost of common equity. That suggests we could expect a relatively stable relationship between interest rates and allowed returns, as well. However, a simple comparison of allowed returns and interest rates shows that this is not the case in recent years. The relationship between market interest rates and the returns allowed by commissions varies and is obviously a great deal more complicated. Empirically, there appears to be only a narrow range where market interest rates significantly affect the allowed returns on common stock set by state commissions, at least for electric and combination utilities. If rates are at historically low levels, allowed returns based largely on market rates will hasten subsequent rate filings, and commissions appear to look beyond the low rate levels. Conversely, it appears that regulators do not let historically high market rates determine allowed returns either. At either high or low interest levels, caution seems to be the policy

Analyzing Trends in Subjective Well-Being in 15 European Countries, 1973-2002

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørnskov, Christian; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Pedersen, Peder J.

2008-01-01

by exploiting a long and complete time-series from the Eurobarometer Survey, 1973-2002 allowing an examination of trends in life satisfaction across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Our results show that while current GDP growth does not affect trends in well......-being, accelerations in GDP growth do. In addition, faster GDP growth and faster growth of government consumption than in neighbouring countries induces positive trends in life satisfaction. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of aspirations theory and the theory of reference group comparisons.  ...

Statistical Methods for Detecting and Modeling General Patterns and Relationships in Lifetime Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kvaloey, Jan Terje

1999-04-01

In this thesis, the author tries to develop methods of detecting and modeling general patterns and relationships in lifetime data. Tests with power against nonmonotonic trends and nonmonotonic co variate effects are considered, and nonparametric regression methods which allow estimation of fairly general nonlinear relationships are studied. Practical uses of some of the methods are illustrated although in a medical rather than engineering or technological context.

50 CFR 665.227 - Allowable gear and gear restrictions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable gear and gear restrictions. 665... Fisheries § 665.227 Allowable gear and gear restrictions. (a) Hawaii coral reef ecosystem MUS may be taken only with the following allowable gear and methods: (1) Hand harvest; (2) Spear; (3) Slurp gun; (4...

50 CFR 665.427 - Allowable gear and gear restrictions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable gear and gear restrictions. 665... Archipelago Fisheries § 665.427 Allowable gear and gear restrictions. (a) Mariana coral reef ecosystem MUS may be taken only with the following allowable gear and methods: (1) Hand harvest; (2) Spear; (3) Slurp...

Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.; Attanasi, E.D.

2012-01-01

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast-northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).

42 CFR 61.8 - Benefits: Stipends; dependency allowances; travel allowances; vacation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Benefits: Stipends; dependency allowances; travel...; dependency allowances; travel allowances; vacation. Individuals awarded regular fellowships shall be entitled...) Stipend. (b) Dependency allowances. (c) When authorized in advance, separate allowances for travel. Such...

50 CFR 665.127 - Allowable gear and gear restrictions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable gear and gear restrictions. 665... Fisheries § 665.127 Allowable gear and gear restrictions. (a) American Samoa coral reef ecosystem MUS may be taken only with the following allowable gear and methods: (1) Hand harvest; (2) Spear; (3) Slurp gun; (4...

50 CFR 665.627 - Allowable gear and gear restrictions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable gear and gear restrictions. 665... Island Area Fisheries § 665.627 Allowable gear and gear restrictions. (a) Coral reef ecosystem MUS may be taken only with the following allowable gear and methods: (1) Hand harvest; (2) Spear; (3) Slurp gun; (4...

Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

NNAlign: A Web-Based Prediction Method Allowing Non-Expert End-User Discovery of Sequence Motifs in Quantitative Peptide Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreatta, Massimo; Schafer-Nielsen, Claus; Lund, Ole

2011-01-01

Recent advances in high-throughput technologies have made it possible to generate both gene and protein sequence data at an unprecedented rate and scale thereby enabling entirely new "omics"-based approaches towards the analysis of complex biological processes. However, the amount and complexity...... to interpret large data sets. We have recently developed a method, NNAlign, which is generally applicable to any biological problem where quantitative peptide data is available. This method efficiently identifies underlying sequence patterns by simultaneously aligning peptide sequences and identifying motifs...... associated with quantitative readouts. Here, we provide a web-based implementation of NNAlign allowing non-expert end-users to submit their data (optionally adjusting method parameters), and in return receive a trained method (including a visual representation of the identified motif) that subsequently can...

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.

2006-01-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues ...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues ...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

Trend-outflow method for understanding interactions of surface water with groundwater and atmospheric water for eight reaches of the Upper Rio Grande

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yi; Sheng, Zhuping

2011-11-01

SummaryAtmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater interact very actively through hydrologic processes such as precipitation, infiltration, seepage, irrigation, drainage, evaporation, and evapotranspiration in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. A trend-outflow method has been developed in this paper to gain a better understanding of the interactions based on cumulated inflow and outflow data for any river reaches of interest. A general trend-outflow equation was derived by associating the net interaction of surface water with atmospheric water as a polynomial of inflow and the net interaction of surface water with groundwater as a constant based on surface water budget. Linear and quadratic relations are probably two common trend-outflow types in the real world. It was found that trend-outflows of the Upper Rio Grande reaches, Española, Albuquerque, Socorro-Engle, Palomas, and Rincon are linear with inflow, while those of reaches, Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are quadratic. Reaches Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are found as water deficit reaches mainly for irrigated agriculture in extreme drought years.

Beyond trend analysis: How a modified breakpoint analysis enhances knowledge of agricultural production after Zimbabwe's fast track land reform

Science.gov (United States)

Hentze, Konrad; Thonfeld, Frank; Menz, Gunter

2017-10-01

In the discourse on land reform assessments, a significant lack of spatial and time-series data has been identified, especially with respect to Zimbabwe's ;Fast-Track Land Reform Programme; (FTLRP). At the same time, interest persists among land use change scientists to evaluate causes of land use change and therefore to increase the explanatory power of remote sensing products. This study recognizes these demands and aims to provide input on both levels: Evaluating the potential of satellite remote sensing time-series to answer questions which evolved after intensive land redistribution efforts in Zimbabwe; and investigating how time-series analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be enhanced to provide information on land reform induced land use change. To achieve this, two time-series methods are applied to MODIS NDVI data: Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) and Breakpoint Analysis for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST). In our first analysis, a link of agricultural productivity trends to different land tenure regimes shows that regional clustering of trends is more dominant than a relationship between tenure and trend with a slightly negative slope for all regimes. We demonstrate that clusters of strong negative and positive productivity trends are results of changing irrigation patterns. To locate emerging and fallow irrigation schemes in semi-arid Zimbabwe, a new multi-method approach is developed which allows to map changes from bimodal seasonal phenological patterns to unimodal and vice versa. With an enhanced breakpoint analysis through the combination of STA and BFAST, we are able to provide a technique that can be applied on large scale to map status and development of highly productive cropping systems, which are key for food production, national export and local employment. We therefore conclude that the combination of existing and accessible time-series analysis methods: is able to achieve both: overcoming demonstrated limitations of

Our Nation's Air - annual air trends report, USA, EPA OAR OAQPS

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Annual air trends report in the form of an interactive web application. The report features a suite of visualization tools that allow the user to: -Learn about air...

Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

2010-01-01

The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

Research trend in thermally stimulated current method for development of materials and devices in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Iwamoto, Mitsumasa; Taguchi, Dai

2018-03-01

Thermally stimulated current (TSC) measurement is widely used in a variety of research fields, i.e., physics, electronics, electrical engineering, chemistry, ceramics, and biology. TSC is short-circuit current that flows owing to the displacement of charges in samples during heating. TSC measurement is very simple, but TSC curves give very important information on charge behaviors. In the 1970s, TSC measurement contributed greatly to the development of electrical insulation engineering, semiconductor device technology, and so forth. Accordingly, the TSC experimental technique and its analytical method advanced. Over the past decades, many new molecules and advanced functional materials have been discovered and developed. Along with this, TSC measurement has attracted much attention in industries and academic laboratories as a way of characterizing newly discovered materials and devices. In this review, we report the latest research trend in the TSC method for the development of materials and devices in Japan.

Modern trends in x-ray powder diffraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goebel, H.E.; Snyder, R.L.

1985-01-01

The revival of interest in X-ray powder diffraction, being quoted as a metamorphosis from the 'ugly duckling' to a 'beautiful swan', can be attributed to a number of modern developments in instrumentation and evaluation software. They result in faster data collection, improved accuracy and resolution, and better detectability of minor phases. The ease of data evaluation on small computers coupled direct to the instrument allows convenient execution of previously tedious and time-consuming off-line tasks like qualitative and quantitative analysis, characterization of microcrystalline properties, indexing, and lattice-constant refinements, as well as structure refinements or even exploration of new crystal structures. Powder diffraction has also progressed from an isolated analytical laboratory method to an in situ technique for analysing solid-state reactions or for the on-stream control of industrial processes. The paper surveys these developments and their real and potential applications, and tries to emphasize new trends that are regarded as important steps for the further progress of X-ray powder diffraction

Trends in the nursing doctoral comprehensive examination process: a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Mawn, Barbara E; Goldberg, Shari

2012-01-01

The doctoral comprehensive or qualifying examination (CE/QE) is a traditional rite of passage into the community of scholars for the nursing profession. This exploratory, descriptive cross-sectional study examined trends in the process, timing, and methodology of comprehensive and qualifying examinations in nursing doctoral programs in the United States. Administrators from 45 schools responded to an online survey from 27 states across the country (37% response rate). Participants reported wide variations in the process. The most common method of implementation was the written take-home test (47%), two thirds of which had a subsequent oral examination. Eleven survey respondents (24%) reported using a form of the traditional written, timed, on-site examination; however, only 4 of these also followed up with an oral defense. Nine schools (20%) moved to a requirement for a written publishable paper; three schools consider the written proposal and its defense as the CE/QE. Approximately half had changed their policy in the past 5 years. With the increase in nursing doctor of philosophy programs over the past decade, information is needed to facilitate the development of methods to achieve program outcomes. An understanding of national CE/QE trends can provide a starting point for discussion and allow innovative ideas to meet the need of individual programs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in logistics in the german e-commerce and the particular relevance of managing product returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Brusch

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: There are several trends in logistics Internet retailers have to face nowadays, e.g. addressing and reaching customers through different sales channels (multi- or cross-channel management, integration of new payment alternatives (combined online and/or mobile payment methods, ordering and delivery of products from an Internet retailer at the same day (same-day delivery, and allowing product returns (management of product returns. Here the question is, whether relevant factors influencing the buying behaviour of online shoppers as well as groups of these can be found.  Methods:  Our contribution is analysing this area in two ways. On the hand, an overview about these major trends and the German e-commerce market will be given. On the other hand, the particular relevance of managing product returns will be discussed and through findings from an empirical investigation of German online shoppers expanded. Results: Four relevant factors influencing the behavior of online shoppers could be identified. Applying these four factors four different groups of online shoppers can be differentiated.  

A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L

2015-01-01

We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

Trend Analyses of Nitrate in Danish Groundwater

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, B.; Thorling, L.; Dalgaard, Tommy

2012-01-01

This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis of distribut......This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis...... of distribution, trends and trend reversals in the groundwater nitrate concentration. Secondly, knowledge about the N surplus in Danish agriculture since 1950 is used as an indicator of the potential loss of N. Thirdly, groundwater recharge CFC (Chlorofluorocarbon) age determination allows linking of the first...... two dataset. The development in the nitrate concentration of oxic groundwater clearly mirrors the development in the national agricultural N surplus, and a corresponding trend reversal is found in groundwater. Regulation and technical improvements in the intensive farming in Denmark have succeeded...

Evaluation of local allowable wall thickness of thinned pipe considering internal pressure and bending moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. W.; Park, C. Y.; Kim, B. Y.

2000-01-01

This study proposed the local allowable wall thickness (LAWT) evaluation method for local wall thinned pipe subjected by internal pressure and bending moment. Also, LAWT was evaluated for simplified thinned pipe and the effect of axial extent of thinned area on LAWT was investigated. The results showed that LAWT predicted by present method was thinner, about 50%, than that evaluated by construction code and ASME Code Case N-597, while it was thicker, about 2 times, than that calculated by evaluation model based on pipe experiments. LAWT decreased with increasing axial extent of thinned area and was saturated above axial extent of pipe radius, which was a contrast to the results of ASME Code Case N-597 evaluation. The results of stress analysis with applied loading type indicated that the effect of axial extent of thinned area on LAWT was dependent on loading type considering in the evaluation. That is, the dependence of axial extent on LAWT is determined by magnitude of bending moment, and the contrary trend with axial extent in ASME Code Case is because ASME Code Case N-597 considers only internal pressure in the evaluation

FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON SPREADSHEET-BASED AUTOMATIC TREND LINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DANIEL HOMOCIANU

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Most of the nowadays business applications working with data sets allow exports to the spreadsheet format. This fact is related to the experience of common business users with such products and to the possibility to couple what they have with something containing many models, functions and possibilities to process and represent data, by that getting something in dynamics and much more than a simple static less useful report. The purpose of Business Intelligence is to identify clusters, profiles, association rules, decision trees and many other patterns or even behaviours, but also to generate alerts for exceptions, determine trends and make predictions about the future based on historical data. In this context, the paper shows some practical results obtained after testing both the automatic creation of scatter charts and trend lines corresponding to the user’s preferences and the automatic suggesting of the most appropriate trend for the tested data mostly based on the statistical measure of how close they are to the regression function.

Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

de la Casa, Antonio; Nasello, Olga

2010-03-01

Long-term rainfall variability in the Province of Córdoba, Argentina is studied. The methodology used was developed by Tomé and Miranda (2004), and the most notable breakpoints in the time series were determined in order to identify sudden transitions from one period to another with a different linear trend sign. All the rain gauges operated by the "Servicio Meteorológico Nacional" (SMN) of Argentina in Córdoba Province, in the period 1930-2006, were analyzed. One of the stations studied, Córdoba Observatorio, has reliable rainfall data since 1873. In this case, the 1925-2006 period and the 1873-2006 period were studied to analyze the influence of series length in terms of the piecewise linear trends produced. Analyzing only one breakpoint in all the series, a trend change is observed from negative to positive in the 1950s in the north area of the region, while in the other areas the opposite change occurs in the 1970s. The residual sum of squares obtained with the partial trend method is compared to that produced by the traditional method. This comparison shows how the multiple trend method enables regional changes to be determined for a given climatological variable.

Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Wan

2008-03-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with two problems, methods of foF2 trend determination and origin of trends in foF2, both being controversial in current literature. We found that various regression-based methods and artificial neural network-based method of Yue et al. (2006 provided comparable results within uncertainties caused mainly by various ways of removing/suppressing the dominant solar cycle effect. The role of geomagnetic activity in the observed trends in foF2 was probably substantial and might be still even rather dominant in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Phase-integral method allowing nearlying transition points

CERN Document Server

Fröman, Nanny

1996-01-01

The efficiency of the phase-integral method developed by the present au­ thors has been shown both analytically and numerically in many publica­ tions. With the inclusion of supplementary quantities, closely related to new Stokes constants and obtained with the aid of comparison equation technique, important classes of problems in which transition points may approach each other become accessible to accurate analytical treatment. The exposition in this monograph is of a mathematical nature but has important physical applications, some examples of which are found in the adjoined papers. Thus, we would like to emphasize that, although we aim at mathematical rigor, our treatment is made primarily with physical needs in mind. To introduce the reader into the background of this book, we start by de­ scribing the phase-integral approximation of arbitrary order generated from an unspecified base function. This is done in Chapter 1, which is reprinted, after minor changes, from a review article. Chapter 2 is the re...

ORGANIC GRAIN PRODUCTION MARKET OF UKRAINE: PROSPECTS AND TRENDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktoriia Bondar

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to determine the prospects of the market of organic products in Ukraine. The article studies the market for organic produce dynamic area of organic farmland, number of organic farms in volume production of organic products. Identified key factors influencing the market for organic products Ukraine, outlined areas of the market based on its current state. Grain industry serves as a source of sustainable development of agriculture, determines the socio-economic condition of society and is the basis of agricultural exports. Therefore, the development of the organic market of grain and its products are of particular importance and led to the goal and objectives of bottom investigation. Methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are works of economists on the development of ecology management, general scientific methods and approaches in the field of business management: historical, dialectical, abstract logical methods of system-structural analysis and synthesis of scientific research and provision of economic theory, management. Results. Proved that Ukraine has considerable potential as a producer of agricultural products, including organic farming, export, consumption in the domestic market. To determine the market trends of organic products studied the dynamics of agricultural surfaces of Ukraine, reserved for growing organic products. To further study the characteristics and trends of the market for organic products in Ukraine, examined the dynamics of the number of organic farms. For determining the main trends and the prospects of the organic products market, and in addition for researching proposals, examined demand for market research of market demand for organic products in terms of production of organic products in Ukraine. Practical implications. The main problem of Ukraine of organic production is exported domestic products as organic production of agricultural products. Analysis of key

New Trends in Customer Relationship Management and their Application in Slovak Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viliam Lendel

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Get new customers at a time of economic downturn is a challenge. For organizations whose goal is not only be succeed but also to ensure the survival, a CRM is a solution which provides a quick view of the market and brings value to the business in the longer term. Not all businesses know about the CRM opportunities and new trends in this area. The aim of this article is charting of new trends in CRM (as Mobile CRM, Social CRM, Customer Data Management... and how to use them during the economic crisis. Analysis of scientific literature, comparative analysis and inductive method were main methods of the research. The analysis of scientific literature allowed revealing new trends in CRM area. From March 2007 to February 2009 we carried out the research specialized in diagnostics of the level of Slovak companies in the CRM area. The purpose of the research was also to find and analyse the current level of Slovak businesses in CRM area. Data gathering was running by two main ways – by personal questioning and by electronic questioning. 230 top managers of Slovak medium and large businesses participated in the research. The results of the survey show the status of using the CRM at relatively high level. Almost half respondents said that CRM is in full operation in the company. But understanding of the term CRM is relatively poor. Respondents have considered the most important preconditions for successful implementation of CRM into the enterprise strategy and planning, effective work with information and high-quality customer base.

Piecewise Polynomial Fitting with Trend Item Removal and Its Application in a Cab Vibration Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wu Ren

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The trend item of a long-term vibration signal is difficult to remove. This paper proposes a piecewise integration method to remove trend items. Examples of direct integration without trend item removal, global integration after piecewise polynomial fitting with trend item removal, and direct integration after piecewise polynomial fitting with trend item removal were simulated. The results showed that direct integration of the fitted piecewise polynomial provided greater acceleration and displacement precision than the other two integration methods. A vibration test was then performed on a special equipment cab. The results indicated that direct integration by piecewise polynomial fitting with trend item removal was highly consistent with the measured signal data. However, the direct integration method without trend item removal resulted in signal distortion. The proposed method can help with frequency domain analysis of vibration signals and modal parameter identification for such equipment.

The IFIEC method for the allocation of CO2 allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. A review applied to the electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bart Wesselink; Sebastian Klaus Alyssa; Gilbert Kornelis Blok

2008-03-01

Recently the European Commission has published a proposal to improve the function of the EU-ETS by amending the Directive which establishes the EU-ETS. The main changes proposed are the establishment of one EU-wide cap and the use of auctioning for a much greater share of allowances than is currently the case, replacing most of the allocation free of charge. Auctioning of allowances will eliminate the so-called windfall profits that occur under the current allocation free of charge that is based on historic production and emission levels; a grandfathering approach. IFIEC EUROPE, the international federation of industrial energy consumers, asked Ecofys to review the method that IFIEC has developed in recent years to allocate CO2 allowances in the EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS). According to IFIEC, their allocation method guarantees the same environmental outcome as other methods, without causing windfall profits and with lower risks of competitiveness loss for so-called exposed industrial users of electricity. It was decided to focus this study on the European electricity sector. This was done for several reasons: CO2 emissions from electricity generation cover a large part of the overall emission under EU-ETS, the electricity sector has a single well defined output (electricity) that can be used to illustrate the potential impact of the IFIEC benchmark based allocation approach, and electricity is a substantial cost factor for IFIEC members. This evaluation covers many aspects of IFIEC's method and compares these with two other allocation methods: auctioning and historic grandfathering. Within the IFIEC method two example approaches are evaluated: a single benchmark for electricity production and fuel-specific benchmarks for coal and gas fired electricity production. In the evaluation, we cover the following aspects: What is the IFIEC method; how does it differ from other allocation methods in character (chapter 2); What is the impact of different allocation

Lower-tropospheric humidity: climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Läderach

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The tropical region is an area of maximum humidity and serves as the major humidity source of the globe. Among other phenomena, it is governed by the so-called Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ which is commonly defined by converging low-level winds or enhanced precipitation. Given its importance as a humidity source, we investigate the humidity fields in the tropics in different reanalysis data sets, deduce the climatology and variability and assess the relationship to the ITCZ. Therefore, a new analysis method of the specific humidity distribution is introduced which allows detecting the location of the humidity maximum, the strength and the meridional extent. The results show that the humidity maximum in boreal summer is strongly shifted northward over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area and the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts go along with a peak in the strength in both areas; however, the extent shrinks over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area, whereas it is wider over the Gulf of Mexico. In winter, such connections between location, strength and extent are not found. Still, a peak in strength is again identified over the Gulf of Mexico in boreal winter. The variability of the three characteristics is dominated by inter-annual signals in both seasons. The results using ERA-interim data suggest a positive trend in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic region from 1979 to 2010, showing an increased northward shift in the recent years. Although the trend is only weakly confirmed by the results using MERRA reanalysis data, it is in phase with a trend in hurricane activity – a possible hint of the importance of the new method on hurricanes. Furthermore, the position of the maximum humidity coincides with one of the ITCZ in most areas. One exception is the western and central Pacific, where the area is dominated by the double ITCZ in boreal winter. Nevertheless, the new method enables us to gain more insight into the humidity distribution, its variability and

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2009-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2012-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

Maximum allowable load on wheeled mobile manipulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habibnejad Korayem, M.; Ghariblu, H.

2003-01-01

This paper develops a computational technique for finding the maximum allowable load of mobile manipulator during a given trajectory. The maximum allowable loads which can be achieved by a mobile manipulator during a given trajectory are limited by the number of factors; probably the dynamic properties of mobile base and mounted manipulator, their actuator limitations and additional constraints applied to resolving the redundancy are the most important factors. To resolve extra D.O.F introduced by the base mobility, additional constraint functions are proposed directly in the task space of mobile manipulator. Finally, in two numerical examples involving a two-link planar manipulator mounted on a differentially driven mobile base, application of the method to determining maximum allowable load is verified. The simulation results demonstrates the maximum allowable load on a desired trajectory has not a unique value and directly depends on the additional constraint functions which applies to resolve the motion redundancy

Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

2015-09-01

We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

Measurement of the super-allowed branching ratio of $^{22}$Mg

CERN Multimedia

We propose to measure the super-allowed branching ratio and the half-life of $^{22}$Mg, one of the least-well-measured $0^{+} \\rightarrow 0^{+}$ transitions of the 14 nuclei used to determine V$_{ud}$ and to test the unitarity of the CKM matrix. We propose measurements which should allow to significantly improve the precision on the super-allowed branching ratio employing a precisely efficiency calibrated germanium detector and on the half-life. As no method exists to greatly improve (e.g. an order of magnitude) on previous results, the branching ratio and the half-life have to be measured several times with independent methods and in independent experiments.

Grey GM(1,1) Model with Function-Transfer Method for Wear Trend Prediction and its Application

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state super-vision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the fore-cast system is considered as a Grey system; the existing known information is used to infer the unknown in f ormations character, state and development trend in a fault pattern, and to make possible forecasting and decisions for future development. It involves the whiteniza tion of a Grey process. But the traditional equal time interval Grey GM (1,1) model re-quires equal interval data and needs to bring about accumulating addition generation and reversion calculations. Its calculation is very complex. However, the non-equal interval Grey GM (1,1) model decreases the condition of the primitive data when establishing a model,but its requirement is still higher and the data were pre-processed. The abrasion primitive data of plant could not always satisfy these modeling requirements. Therefore, it establi-shes a division method suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of GM (1,1), the standard error coefficient that was applied to judge accuracy height of the model was put forward; further, the function transform to forecast plant abrasion trend and assess GM (1,1) parameter was established. These two models need not pre-process the primitive data. It is not only suited for equal interval data modeling, but also for non-e-qual interval data modeling. Its calculation is simple and convenient to use. The oil spec-trum analysis acted as an example. The two GM (1,1) models put forward in this paper and the new information model and its comprehensive usage were investigated. The exam ple shows that the two models are simple and practical, and worth expanding and apply-ing in plant fault diagnosis.

A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slanicay Martin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper I propose a flexible trend specification for estimating DSGE models on log differences. I demonstrate this flexible trend specification on a New Keynesian DSGE model of two economies, which I consequently estimate on data from the Czech economy and the euro area, using Bayesian techniques. The advantage of the trend specification proposed is that the trend component and the cyclical component are modelled jointly in a single model. The proposed trend specification is flexible in the sense that smoothness of the trend can be easily modified by different calibration of some of the trend parameters. The results suggest that this method is capable of finding a very reasonable trend in the data. Moreover, comparison of forecast performance reveals that the proposed specification offers more reliable forecasts than the original variant of the model.

Online Marketing Trends

OpenAIRE

Horecká, Ivana

2015-01-01

This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

Trend methods for the assessment of effectiveness of reduction measures in the water system; Methoden der Trendabschaetzung zur Ueberpruefung von Reduktionszielen im Gewaesserschutz

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uhlig, S.; Kuhbier, P.

2001-05-01

Riverine inputs are highly depending substance-specifically on flow rate and other climatic factors. In order to prevent that climatic influences deteriorate the trend detectability, an appropriate adjustment of the measurement data is necessary. Subject of the research project is therefore a concept for the adjustment and trend analysis of these input data. The basic concept for adjustment and trend analysis of riverine inputs is as follows: After providing monthly or biweekly data, monthly or biweekly adjusted loads are calculated with an adjustment procedure based on a dynamically specified concentration-flow function. Then the annual adjusted load is obtained by averaging the monthly or biweekly adjusted data. In the next step a trend analysis of the annual adjusted load is performed, using the LOESS smoother or the test of Mann-Kendall. Finally a power analysis is performed in order to assess the trend sensitivity of the method. Nine adjustment methods were tested at seven parameters (NO{sub 3}-N, NH{sub 4}-N, P{sub total}, PO{sub 4}-P, Cd, Pb and suspended matter) measured biweekly in the Rhine River (Lobith) and monthly in the Ems River (Herbrum). (orig.) [German] Flussfrachten sind in hohem Masse - je nach Substanz - von der Durchflussrate und anderen klimatischen Faktoren abhaengig, und um zu verhindern, dass klimatische Einfluesse die Nachweisbarkeit von zeitlichen Trends in diesen Eintragsdaten verschlechtern, ist eine Adjustierung der Messdaten erforderlich. Gegenstand des Vorhabens ist daher ein Konzept fuer die Adjustierung und Trendanalyse dieser Eintragsdaten. Das Konzept ist wie folgt strukturiert: Auf der Basis monatlicher oder vierzehntaegiger Messdaten werden monatliche bzw. vierzehntaegige adjustierte Frachten unter Verwendung einer dynamisch angepassten Konzentrations-Durchfluss-Funktion berechnet. Die adjustierte Jahresfracht ergibt sich dann mittels Durchschnittsbildung aus den monatlichen bzw. vierzehntaegigen adjustierten Frachten. Auf

Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1995-04-01

The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

De-Trending K2 Exoplanet Targets for High Spacecraft Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Nicholas; Luger, Rodrigo; Barnes, Rory

2018-01-01

After the failure of two reaction wheels, the Kepler space telescope lost its fine pointing ability and entered a new phase of observation, K2. Targets observed by K2 have high motion relative to the detector and K2 light curves have higher noise than Kepler observations. Despite the increased noise, systematics removal pipelines such as K2SFF and EVEREST have enabled continued high-precision transiting planet science with the telescope, resulting in the detection of hundreds of new exoplanets. However, as the spacecraft begins to run out of fuel, sputtering will drive large and random variations in pointing that can prevent detection of exoplanets during the remaining 5 campaigns. In general, higher motion will spread the stellar point spread function (PSF) across more pixels during a campaign, which increases the number of degrees of freedom in the noise component and significantly reduces the de-trending power of traditional systematics removal methods. We use a model of the Kepler CCD combined with pixel-level information of a large number of stars across the detector to improve the performance of the EVEREST pipeline at high motion. We also consider the problem of increased crowding for static apertures in the high-motion regime and develop pixel response function (PRF)-fitting techniques to mitigate contamination and maximize the de-trending power. We assess the performance of our code by simulating sputtering events and assessing exoplanet detection efficiency with transit injection/recovery tests. We find that targets with roll amplitudes of up to 8 pixels, approximately 15 times K2 roll, can be de-trended within 2 to 3 factors of current K2 photometric precision for stars up to 14th magnitude. Achieved recovery precision allows detection of small planets around 11th and 12th magnitude stars. These methods can be applied to the light curves of K2 targets for existing and future campaigns to ensure that precision exoplanet science can still be performed

Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Meicun; Cai Qi

2011-01-01

The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

Technical efficiency and economic viability of different cattle identification methods allowed by the Brazilian traceability system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Aurelio Lopes

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the technical efficiency and economic viability of the implementation and use of four cattle identification methods allowed by the Brazilian traceability system. The study was conducted in a beef cattle production system located in the State of Mato Grosso, from January to June 2012. Four identification methods (treatments were compared: T1: ear tag in one ear and ear button in the other ear (eabu; T2: ear tag and iron brand on the right leg (eaib; T3: ear tag in one ear and tattoo on the other ear (eata; and T4: ear tag in one ear and electronic ear tag (eael on the other. Each treatment was applied to 60 Nelore animals, totaling 240 animals, divided equally into three life stages (calves, young cattle, adult cattle. The study had two phases: implementation (phase 1 and reading and transfer of identification numbers to an electronic database (phase 2. All operating expenses related to the two phases of the study were determined. The database was constructed, and the statistical analyses were performed using SPSS® 17.0 software. Regarding the time spent on implementation (phase 1, conventional ear tags and electronic ear tags produced similar results, which were lower than those of hot iron and tattoo methods, which differed from each other. Regarding the time required for reading the numbers on animals and their transcription into a database (phase 2, electronic ear-tagging was the fastest method, followed by conventional ear tag, hot iron and tattoo. Among the methods analyzed, the electronic ear tag had the highest technical efficiency because it required less time to implement identifiers and to complete the process of reading and transcription to an electronic database and because it did not exhibit any errors. However, the cost of using the electronic ear-tagging method was higher primarily due to the cost of the device.

Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

CERN Document Server

Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

2012-01-01

This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

2016-12-01

Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

Minimizing the trend effect on detrended cross-correlation analysis with empirical mode decomposition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Xiaojun; Shang Pengjian; Zhao Chuang; Wang Jing; Tao Rui

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Investigate the effects of linear, exponential and periodic trends on DCCA. ► Apply empirical mode decomposition to extract trend term. ► Strong and monotonic trends are successfully eliminated. ► Get the cross-correlation exponent in a persistent behavior without crossover. - Abstract: Detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) is a scaling method commonly used to estimate long-range power law cross-correlation in non-stationary signals. However, the susceptibility of DCCA to trends makes the scaling results difficult to analyze due to spurious crossovers. We artificially generate long-range cross-correlated signals and systematically investigate the effect of linear, exponential and periodic trends. Specifically to the crossovers raised by trends, we apply empirical mode decomposition method which decomposes underlying signals into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF) and a residual trend. After the removal of residual term, strong and monotonic trends such as linear and exponential trends are successfully eliminated. But periodic trend cannot be separated out according to the criterion of IMF, which can be eliminated by Fourier transform. As a special case of DCCA, detrended fluctuation analysis presents similar results.

RepoSTAR. A Code package for control and evaluation of statistical calculations with the program package RepoTREND; RepoSTAR. Ein Codepaket zur Steuerung und Auswertung statistischer Rechenlaeufe mit dem Programmpaket RepoTREND

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2016-05-15

The program package RepoTREND for the integrated long terms safety analysis of final repositories allows besides deterministic studies of defined problems also statistical or probabilistic analyses. Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are realized in the program package repoTREND by a specific statistic frame called RepoSTAR. The report covers the following issues: concept, sampling and data supply of single simulations, evaluation of statistical calculations with the program RepoSUN.

Long-term trends in foF2: A comparison of various methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan; Mikhailov, A. V.; Ulich, T.; Bremer, J.; Elias, A. G.; Ortiz de Adler, N.; Jara, V.; Abarca del Rio, R.; Foppiano, A. J.; Ovalle, E.; Danilov, A. D.

2006-01-01

Roč. 68, č. 17 (2006), s. 1854-1870 ISSN 1364-6826 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Ionosphere * foF2 * Long-term trends * Anthropogenic effects Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.448, year: 2006

The scale-dependent market trend: Empirical evidences using the lagged DFA method

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Daye; Kou, Zhun; Sun, Qiankun

2015-09-01

In this paper we make an empirical research and test the efficiency of 44 important market indexes in multiple scales. A modified method based on the lagged detrended fluctuation analysis is utilized to maximize the information of long-term correlations from the non-zero lags and keep the margin of errors small when measuring the local Hurst exponent. Our empirical result illustrates that a common pattern can be found in the majority of the measured market indexes which tend to be persistent (with the local Hurst exponent > 0.5) in the small time scale, whereas it displays significant anti-persistent characteristics in large time scales. Moreover, not only the stock markets but also the foreign exchange markets share this pattern. Considering that the exchange markets are only weakly synchronized with the economic cycles, it can be concluded that the economic cycles can cause anti-persistence in the large time scale but there are also other factors at work. The empirical result supports the view that financial markets are multi-fractal and it indicates that deviations from efficiency and the type of model to describe the trend of market price are dependent on the forecasting horizon.

Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

2014-08-01

Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Trends spanning 36 years of nursing research

OpenAIRE

LEE Hyeyong; SHIMOTAKAHARA Rie; FUKADA Akimi; SHINBASHI Sumiko

2018-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim of demonstrating priorities for future research, this study draws on the strengths of text-mining analysis to analyze trends in nursing research in Japan over a 36-year period. METHODS: Documents published in the online version of the Igaku Chuo Zasshi (ICHUSHI) between 1980 and December 2015 were targeted for analysis. Tendencies and trends over time characterizing words used in the titles of all target research papers were analyzed, along with characteristic words. RESULTS:...

Status and trends of solid state track detector use in radiation protection monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerschel, B.

1980-01-01

The characteristic properties of solid state track detectors allow them to be used for determining the radiation fields of charged and uncharged particles and, consequently, for solving some problems involved in radiation protection monitoring. Aptitude of various detector materials is investigated on the basis of the track formation mechanism taking into account the properties of the particles to be detected. Use of these detectors in radiation protection monitoring presumes appropriate methods of intensifying the latent tracks, which are discussed as a function of various physical parameters. Readout methods of solid state track detectors are based on variations in detector properties determined by number and size of particle tracks in the detector. The choice of a special readout method, among other things, depends on the purpose, detector material, and pretreatment of the detectors. The most prospective methods are described and investigated with respect to their possible use in various fields of radiation protection monitoring. The trends of development of the application of solid state track detectors in radiation protection monitoring are discussed, using some typical applications as examples. (author)

TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. JIPA

2012-03-01

Full Text Available TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER. In the context of climate change at global and regional scale, this study intends to identify the trends in variability of the annual and monthly flow of Teleajen river. The study is based on processing the series of mean, maximum and minimum flows at Cheia and Moara Domnească hydrometric stations (these data were taken from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. The period of analysis is 1966-1998, statistical methods beeing mostly used, among which the Mann – Kendall test, that identifies the liniar trend and its statistic significance, comes into focus. The trends in the variability of water annual and monthly flows are highlighted. The results obtained show downward trends for the mean and maximum annual flows, and for the minimum water discharge, a downward trend for Cheia station and an upward trend for Moara Domnească station. Knowing the trends in the variability of the rivers’ flow is important empirically in view of taking adequate administration measures of the water resources and managment measures for the risks lead by extreme hidrologic events (floods, low-water, according to the possible identified changes.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

A new method to detect long term trends of methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O total columns measured within the NDACC ground-based high resolution solar FTIR network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Schneider

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Total columns measured with the ground-based solar FTIR technique are highly variable in time due to atmospheric chemistry and dynamics in the atmosphere above the measurement station. In this paper, a multiple regression model with anomalies of air pressure, total columns of hydrogen fluoride (HF and carbon monoxide (CO and tropopause height are used to reduce the variability in the methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O total columns to estimate reliable linear trends with as small uncertainties as possible. The method is developed at the Harestua station (60° N, 11° E, 600 m a.s.l. and used on three other European FTIR stations, i.e. Jungfraujoch (47° N, 8° E, 3600 m a.s.l., Zugspitze (47° N, 11° E, 3000 m a.s.l., and Kiruna (68° N, 20° E, 400 m a.s.l.. Linear CH4 trends between 0.13 ± 0.01-0.25 ± 0.02 % yr−1 were estimated for all stations in the 1996-2009 period. A piecewise model with three separate linear trends, connected at change points, was used to estimate the short term fluctuations in the CH4 total columns. This model shows a growth in 1996–1999 followed by a period of steady state until 2007. From 2007 until 2009 the atmospheric CH4 amount increases between 0.57 ± 0.22–1.15 ± 0.17 % yr−1. Linear N2O trends between 0.19 ± 0.01–0.40 ± 0.02 % yr−1 were estimated for all stations in the 1996-2007 period, here with the strongest trend at Harestua and Kiruna and the lowest at the Alp stations. From the N2O total columns crude tropospheric and stratospheric partial columns were derived, indicating that the observed difference in the N2O trends between the FTIR sites is of stratospheric origin. This agrees well with the N2O measurements by the SMR instrument onboard the Odin satellite showing the highest trends at Harestua, 0.98 ± 0.28 % yr−1, and considerably smaller trends at lower latitudes, 0.27 ± 0.25 % yr−1. The multiple regression model was compared with two other trend methods, the ordinary linear

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

Computational intelligence for the Balanced Scorecard: studying performance trends of hemodialysis clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cattinelli, Isabella; Bolzoni, Elena; Chermisi, Milena; Bellocchio, Francesco; Barbieri, Carlo; Mari, Flavio; Amato, Claudia; Menzer, Marcus; Stopper, Andrea; Gatti, Emanuele

2013-07-01

The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a general, widely employed instrument for enterprise performance monitoring based on the periodic assessment of strategic Key Performance Indicators that are scored against preset targets. The BSC is currently employed as an effective management support tool within Fresenius Medical Care (FME) and is routinely analyzed via standard statistical methods. More recently, the application of computational intelligence techniques (namely, self-organizing maps) to BSC data has been proposed as a way to enhance the quantity and quality of information that can be extracted from it. In this work, additional methods are presented to analyze the evolution of clinic performance over time. Performance evolution is studied at the single-clinic level by computing two complementary indexes that measure the proportion of time spent within performance clusters and improving/worsening trends. Self-organizing maps are used in conjunction with these indexes to identify the specific drivers of the observed performance. The performance evolution for groups of clinics is modeled under a probabilistic framework by resorting to Markov chain properties. These allow a study of the probability of transitioning between performance clusters as time progresses for the identification of the performance level that is expected to become dominant over time. We show the potential of the proposed methods through illustrative results derived from the analysis of BSC data of 109 FME clinics in three countries. We were able to identify the performance drivers for specific groups of clinics and to distinguish between countries whose performances are likely to improve from those where a decline in performance might be expected. According to the stationary distribution of the Markov chain, the expected trend is best in Turkey (where the highest performance cluster has the highest probability, P=0.46), followed by Portugal (where the second best performance cluster dominates

Allowable variance set on left ventricular function parameter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Li'na; Qi Zhongzhi; Zeng Yu; Ou Xiaohong; Li Lin

2010-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of allowable Variance settings on left ventricular function parameter of the arrhythmia patients during gated myocardial perfusion imaging. Method: 42 patients with evident arrhythmia underwent myocardial perfusion SPECT, 3 different allowable variance with 20%, 60%, 100% would be set before acquisition for every patients,and they will be acquired simultaneously. After reconstruction by Astonish, end-diastole volume(EDV) and end-systolic volume (ESV) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) would be computed with Quantitative Gated SPECT(QGS). Using SPSS software EDV, ESV, EF values of analysis of variance. Result: there is no statistical difference between three groups. Conclusion: arrhythmia patients undergo Gated myocardial perfusion imaging, Allowable Variance settings on EDV, ESV, EF value does not have a statistical meaning. (authors)

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

International trends in health science librarianship: Part 7. Taking stock.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Jeannette

2013-09-01

This article reviews the six papers published so far in this series on global trends in health science librarianship. Starting with a retrospective review of trends in the twentieth-century, the series has covered 6 different regions, with contributions from 21 countries. As this is the half-way point in the survey, it seems a useful point at which to reflect on what has emerged so far. The method of content analysis is used to identify key trends. The top five trends are explored. © 2013 The author. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF MAJOR TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF ADAPTIVE TRAFFIC FLOW MANAGEMENT METHODS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. N. Klimovich

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Adaptive algorithms, which current traffic systems are based on, exist for many decades. Information technologies have developed significantly over this period and it makes more relevant their application in the field of transport. This paper analyses modern trends in the development of adaptive traffic flow control methods. Reviewed the most perspective directions in the field of intelligent transport systems, such as high-speed wireless communication between vehicles and road infrastructure based on such technologies as DSRC and WAVE, traffic jams prediction having such features as traffic flow information, congestion, velocity of vehicles using machine learning, fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms, application of driver assistance systems to increase vehicle’s autonomy. Advantages of such technologies in safety, efficiency and usability of transport are shown. Described multi-agent approach, which uses V2I-communication between vehicles and intersection controller to improve efficiency of control due to more complete traffic flow information and possibility to give orders to separate vehicles. Presented number of algorithms which use such approach to create new generation of adaptive transport systems.

Simultaneous analysis of climatic trends in multiple variables: an example of application of multivariate statistical methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Huth, Radan; Pokorná, Lucie

2005-01-01

Roč. 25, - (2005), s. 469-484 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA3017301 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climatic trends * trend consistency * principal component analysis * cluster analysis * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.622, year: 2005

Pregnancy termination in Matlab, Bangladesh: trends and correlates of use of safer and less-safe methods.

Science.gov (United States)

DaVanzo, Julie; Rahman, Mizanur

2014-09-01

Menstrual regulation (MR), a relatively safe form of pregnancy termination, is legal in Bangladesh during the early stages of pregnancy. However, little is known about the factors associated with whether women who terminate pregnancies choose this method or a less-safe one. Data from the Matlab Demographic Surveillance System on 122,691 pregnancies-5,221 (4.3%) of which were terminated-were used to examine trends between 1989 and 2008 in termination and in use of safer methods (MR or dilation and curettage) and less-safe (all other) methods of pregnancy termination. Logistic and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess factors associated with whether women terminate pregnancies and whether they use safer methods. Sixty-seven percent of pregnancy terminations were by safer methods and 33% by less-safe means. The proportion of pregnancies that were terminated increased between 1989 and 2008; this increase was entirely due to increased use of safer methods. Women younger than 18 and those 25 or older were more likely than women aged 20-24 to terminate their pregnancies (odds ratios ranged from 1.5 among women aged 16-17 or 25-29 to 26.1 among those aged 45 or older). Among women who terminated their pregnancies, those aged 25-44 were more likely than those aged 20-24 to use a safer method. Compared with women who had no formal education, those with some education were more likely to terminate their pregnancies and to do so using safer methods. A growing proportion of pregnancies in Matlab are terminated, and these terminations are increasingly done using safer methods.

Trends that FCS Education Should Address: A Delphi Study Reveals Top 16

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Karen L.; Davis, Kimberlee

2011-01-01

This study used the Delphi method to identify trends of importance to family and consumer sciences (FCS) education. A panel of 21 FCS education experts identified 16 trends and evaluated them by importance, desirability, feasibility, and confidence in validity of the trend. Nutrition appeared as a top priority, followed by consumer economics. The…

CHILD ALLOWANCE

CERN Multimedia

Human Resources Division

2001-01-01

HR Division wishes to clarify to members of the personnel that the allowance for a dependent child continues to be paid during all training courses ('stages'), apprenticeships, 'contrats de qualification', sandwich courses or other courses of similar nature. Any payment received for these training courses, including apprenticeships, is however deducted from the amount reimbursable as school fees. HR Division would also like to draw the attention of members of the personnel to the fact that any contract of employment will lead to the suppression of the child allowance and of the right to reimbursement of school fees.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

SPI Trend Analysis of New Zealand Applying the ITA Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tommaso Caloiero

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A natural temporary imbalance of water availability, consisting of persistent lower-than-average or higher-than-average precipitation, can cause extreme dry and wet conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure, and human systems. In this study, dry and wet periods in New Zealand were expressed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. First, both the short term (3 and 6 months and the long term (12 and 24 months SPI were estimated, and then, possible trends in the SPI values were detected by means of a new graphical technique, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA, which allows the trend identification of the low, medium, and high values of a series. Results show that, in every area currently subject to drought, an increase in this phenomenon can be expected. Specifically, the results of this paper highlight that agricultural regions on the eastern side of the South Island, as well as the north-eastern regions of the North Island, are the most consistently vulnerable areas. In fact, in these regions, the trend analysis mainly showed a general reduction in all the values of the SPI: that is, a tendency toward heavier droughts and weaker wet periods.

Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. M. Vogel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jirong

2017-12-01

The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

Recent trends in counts of migrant hawks from northeastern North America

Science.gov (United States)

Titus, K.; Fuller, M.R.

1990-01-01

Using simple regression, pooled-sites route-regression, and nonparametric rank-trend analyses, we evaluated trends in counts of hawks migrating past 6 eastern hawk lookouts from 1972 to 1987. The indexing variable was the total count for a season. Bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), merlin (F. columbarius), osprey (Pandion haliaetus), and Cooper's hawk (Accipiter cooperii) counts increased using route-regression and nonparametric methods (P 0.10). We found no consistent trends (P > 0.10) in counts of sharp-shinned hawks (A. striatus), northern goshawks (A. gentilis) red-shouldered hawks (Buteo lineatus), red-tailed hawks (B. jamaicensis), rough-legged hawsk (B. lagopus), and American kestrels (F. sparverius). Broad-winged hawk (B. platypterus) counts declined (P < 0.05) based on the route-regression method. Empirical comparisons of our results with those for well-studied species such as the peregrine falcon, bald eagle, and osprey indicated agreement with nesting surveys. We suggest that counts of migrant hawks are a useful and economical method for detecting long-term trends in species across regions, particularly for species that otherwise cannot be easily surveyed.

Novel Data Sources for Women’s Health Research: Mapping Breast Screening Online Information Seeking Through Google Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Dehkordy, Soudabeh Fazeli; Carlos, Ruth C.; Hall, Kelli S.; Dalton, Vanessa K.

2015-01-01

Rationale and Objectives Millions of people use online search engines every day to find health-related information and voluntarily share their personal health status and behaviors in various Web sites. Thus, data from tracking of online information seeker’s behavior offer potential opportunities for use in public health surveillance and research. Google Trends is a feature of Google which allows internet users to graph the frequency of searches for a single term or phrase over time or by geographic region. We used Google Trends to describe patterns of information seeking behavior in the subject of dense breasts and to examine their correlation with the passage or introduction of dense breast notification legislation. Materials and Methods In order to capture the temporal variations of information seeking about dense breasts, the web search query “dense breast” was entered in the Google Trends tool. We then mapped the dates of legislative actions regarding dense breasts that received widespread coverage in the lay media to information seeking trends about dense breasts over time. Results Newsworthy events and legislative actions appear to correlate well with peaks in search volume of “dense breast”. Geographic regions with the highest search volumes have either passed, denied, or are currently considering the dense breast legislation. Conclusions Our study demonstrated that any legislative action and respective news coverage correlate with increase in information seeking for “dense breast” on Google, suggesting that Google Trends has the potential to serve as a data source for policy-relevant research. PMID:24998689

Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Wang, Nai-Yi

2010-10-01

In this paper, we present a new method to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups (FTLRGs). The proposed method divides fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs based on the trend of adjacent fuzzy sets appearing in the antecedents of fuzzy logical relationships. First, we apply an automatic clustering algorithm to cluster the historical data into intervals of different lengths. Then, we define fuzzy sets based on these intervals of different lengths. Then, the historical data are fuzzified into fuzzy sets to derive fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we divide the fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs for forecasting the TAIEX. Moreover, we also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments and the inventory demand, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

Striking trends in the incidence of health problems in the Netherlands (2002-05): findings from a new method for record linkage in general practice.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Biermans, M.C.J.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Verheij, R.A.; Bakker, D.H. de; Vries Robbé, P.F. de; Zielhuis, G.A.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to detect striking trends based on a new strategy for monitoring public health. METHODS: We used data over 4 years from electronic medical records of a large, nationally representative network of general practices. Episodes were either directly recorded by general

Effects of Exponential Trends on Correlations of Stock Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ai-Jing Lin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in time series. In this paper, DFA is employed to discuss the long-range correlations of stock market. The effects of exponential trends on correlations of Hang Seng Index (HSI are investigated with emphasis. We find that the long-range correlations and the positions of the crossovers of lower order DFA appear to have no immunity to the additive exponential trends. Further, our analysis suggests that an increase in the DFA order increases the efficiency of eliminating on exponential trends. In addition, the empirical study shows that the correlations and crossovers are associated with DFA order and magnitude of exponential trends.

Climate Change Communication Research: Trends and Implications ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate Change Communication Research: Trends and Implications. ... African Journal of Sustainable Development ... with a specific focus on the themes that have dominated current studies, major research methods in use, major theories that ...

Trends and regional variations in provision of contraception methods in a commercially insured population in the United States based on nationally proposed measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, A; Yu, J S; Wang, W; Lin, J; Lynen, R

2017-09-01

Three measures to assess the provision of effective contraception methods among reproductive-aged women have recently been endorsed for national public reporting. Based on these measures, this study examined real-world trends and regional variations of contraceptive provision in a commercially insured population in the United States. Women 15-44years old with continuous enrollment in each year from 2005 to 2014 were identified from a commercial claims database. In accordance with the proposed measures, percentages of women (a) provided most effective or moderately effective (MEME) methods of contraception and (b) provided a long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) method were calculated in two populations: women at risk for unintended pregnancy and women who had a live birth within 3 and 60days of delivery. During the 10-year period, the percentages of women at risk for unintended pregnancy provided MEME contraceptive methods increased among 15-20-year-olds (24.5%-35.9%) and 21-44-year-olds (26.2%-31.5%), and those provided a LARC method also increased among 15-20-year-olds (0.1%-2.4%) and 21-44-year-olds (0.8%-3.9%). Provision of LARC methods increased most in the North Central and West among both age groups of women. Provision of MEME contraceptives and LARC methods to women who had a live birth within 60days postpartum also increased across age groups and regions. This assessment indicates an overall trend of increasing provision of MEME contraceptive methods in the commercial sector, albeit with age group and regional variations. If implemented, these proposed measures may have impacts on health plan contraceptive access policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advance in research on aerosol deposition simulation methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Keyang; Li Jingsong

2011-01-01

A comprehensive analysis of the health effects of inhaled toxic aerosols requires exact data on airway deposition. A knowledge of the effect of inhaled drugs is essential to the optimization of aerosol drug delivery. Sophisticated analytical deposition models can be used for the computation of total, regional and generation specific deposition efficiencies. The continuously enhancing computer seem to allow us to study the particle transport and deposition in more and more realistic airway geometries with the help of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation method. In this article, the trends in aerosol deposition models and lung models, and the methods for achievement of deposition simulations are also reviewed. (authors)

Trends in resonance ionization spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurst, G.S.

1986-01-01

The author reviews the history of resonance ionization spectroscopy and then comments on the delineations of RIS with reference to many related laser processes. The substance of the paper deals with the trends in RIS and especially how the needs for sensitive analytical methods have overshadowed the orginal plan to study excited species. 9 refs., 1 fig

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G.

2006-01-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed....

Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Grunert, Klaus G

2006-09-01

Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.

Holistic Assessment and Ethical Disputation on a New Trend in Solid Biofuels.

Science.gov (United States)

Hašková, Simona

2017-04-01

A new trend in the production technology of solid biof uels has appeared. There is a wide consensus that most solid biofuels will be produced according to the new production methods within a few years. Numerous samples were manufactured from agro-residues according to conventional methods as well as new methods. Robust analyses that reviewed the hygienic, environmental, financial and ethical aspects were performed. The hygienic and environmental aspect was assessed by robust chemical and technical analyses. The financial aspect was assessed by energy cost breakdown. The ethical point of view was built on the above stated findings, the survey questionnaire and critical discussion with the literature. It is concluded that the new production methods are significantly favourable from both the hygienic and environmental points of view. Financial indicators do not allow the expressing of any preference. Regarding the ethical aspect, it is concluded that the new methods are beneficial in terms of environmental responsibility. However, it showed that most of the customers that took part in the survey are price oriented and therefore they tend to prefer the cheaper-conventional alternative. In the long term it can be assumed that expansion of the new technology and competition among manufacturers will reduce the costs.

Trends and progress in system identification

CERN Document Server

Eykhoff, Pieter

1981-01-01

Trends and Progress in System Identification is a three-part book that focuses on model considerations, identification methods, and experimental conditions involved in system identification. Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with a discussion of model method in system identification, citing four examples differing on the nature of the models involved, the nature of the fields, and their goals. Subsequent chapters describe the most important aspects of model theory; the """"classical"""" methods and time series estimation; application of least squares and related techniques for the e

Review of trends in computerized systems for operator support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cain, D.G.

1985-01-01

The major trends shaping the development of computerized operator support systems in nuclear power plants are reviewed. These trends are the result of prior research in disturbance analysis systems that provided the technology base, and the SPDS requirement, which has been the impetus for change. The process is expected to result in hybrid control rooms with computer-driven supervisory workstations that complement conventional control board lay-outs. In the next three to five year period substantial upgrading of computer hardware will allow new and more sophisticated applications routines to be developed for operator support. Greater attention is being given to on-line validation of input signals for computer applications. A general movement towards operating strategies that are not based upon pre-analyzed event sequences is expected to influence the development of operator aids. The integration of displays with operating procedures will enable the computer system to a better coupling between problem detection and its resolution. Improved design methodology will assure that computer applications are accepted and used by operations personnel. Greater on-line analysis capability is stimulating the trend towards more on-site analysis and decision-making at nuclear power plants. Software standardization reflects the high cost of software development and the desire by utilities to gain greater independence from suppliers. There is growing realization that control rooms are beset by many of the demands and limitations of other office settings and that some of these may be addressed by the burgeoning office automation technology. Trends beyond the next five years are difficult to predict; however, there will be a trend towards more intelligent software. Artificial intelligence technology may play a pivotal role in future applications. Taking these trends into perspective, the author concludes that a promising future exists for computerized operator support in nuclear

Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Wanninkhof

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs. The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1 decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

Trends in Children's Video Game Play: Practical but Not Creative Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlen, Karla R.

2013-01-01

Prior research has found common trends among children's video game play as related to gender, age, interests, creativity, and other descriptors. This study re-examined the previously reported trends by utilizing principal components analysis with variables such as creativity, general characteristics, and problem-solving methods to determine…

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, C.; Vaartjes, I.; Blokstra, A.; Verschuren, W. M M; Visser, M.; Deeg, D. J H; Bots, M. L.; Van Dis, I.

2016-01-01

Background: Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD.  Methods: Data were obtained from five data

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. METHODS: Data were obtained from five data

Association between labour market trends and trends in young people's mental health in ten European countries 1983-2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lager Anton CJ

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mental health problems have become more common among young people over the last twenty years, especially in certain countries. The reasons for this have remained unclear. The hypothesis tested in this study is that national trends in young people's mental health are associated with national trends in young people's labour market. Methods National secular changes in the proportion of young people with mental health problems and national secular labour market changes were studied from 1983 to 2005 in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Results The correlation between the national secular changes in the proportion of young people not in the labour force and the national secular changes in proportion of young people with mental health symptoms was 0.77 for boys and 0.92 for girls. Conclusion Labour market trends may have contributed to the deteriorating trend in mental health among young people. A true relationship, should other studies confirm it, would be an important aspect to take into account when forming labour market policies or policies concerning the delivery of higher education.

Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

2010-01-01

A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

Trends in swimming training for individual medley events

OpenAIRE

Brtník, Tomáš

2013-01-01

Title: Trends in swimming training for individual medley events Objectives: The aim of our study was to analyze performance and training for 200 and 400 m individual medley events and describe new trends in training for these swimming events Methods: Our research design was a case study. We were interested in training of three swimmers of elite performance in the 200 and 400 m individual medley events. To identify cases, we used the analysis of documents and literature, to a limited extent, t...

Scientific substantination of maximum allowable concentration of fluopicolide in water

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pelo I.М.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In order to substantiate fluopicolide maximum allowable concentration in the water of water reservoirs the research was carried out. Methods of study: laboratory hygienic experiment using organoleptic and sanitary-chemical, sanitary-toxicological, sanitary-microbiological and mathematical methods. The results of fluopicolide influence on organoleptic properties of water, sanitary regimen of reservoirs for household purposes were given and its subthreshold concentration in water by sanitary and toxicological hazard index was calculated. The threshold concentration of the substance by the main hazard criteria was established, the maximum allowable concentration in water was substantiated. The studies led to the following conclusions: fluopicolide threshold concentration in water by organoleptic hazard index (limiting criterion – the smell – 0.15 mg/dm3, general sanitary hazard index (limiting criteria – impact on the number of saprophytic microflora, biochemical oxygen demand and nitrification – 0.015 mg/dm3, the maximum noneffective concentration – 0.14 mg/dm3, the maximum allowable concentration - 0.015 mg/dm3.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

2012-11-15

In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

OpenAIRE

Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-01-01

Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

Rigorous determination of stratospheric water vapor trends from MIPAS observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ceccherini, Simone; Carli, Bruno; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco

2011-05-09

The trend of stratospheric water vapor as a function of latitude is estimated by the MIPAS measurements by means of a new method that uses the measurement space solution. The method uses all the information provided by the observations avoiding the artifacts introduced by the a priori information and by the interpolation to different vertical grids. The analysis provides very precise values of the trends that, however, are limited by a relatively large systematic error induced by the radiometric calibration error of the instrument. The results show in the five years from 2005 to 2009 a dependence on latitude of the stratospheric (from 37 to 53 km) water vapor trend with a positive value of (0.41 ± 0.16)%yr-1 in the northern hemisphere and less than 0.16%yr-1 in the southern hemisphere.

Recent Trends in American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology Psychiatric Subspecialties

Science.gov (United States)

Faulkner, Larry R.; Juul, Dorthea; Andrade, Naleen N.; Brooks, Beth Ann; Colenda, Christopher C.; Guynn, Robert W.; Mrazek, David A.; Reus, Victor I.; Schneidman, Barbara S.; Shaw, Kailie R.

2011-01-01

Objective: This article reviews the current status and recent trends in the American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology (ABPN) psychiatric subspecialties and discusses the implications of those trends as well as several key questions whose answers may well determine subspecialty viability. Methods: Data are presented on specialty and subspecialty…

Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use by Very Young, Privately Insured Children

Science.gov (United States)

Olfson, Mark; Crystal, Stephen; Huang, Cecilia; Gerhard, Tobias

2010-01-01

Objective: This study describes recent trends and patterns in antipsychotic treatment of privately insured children aged 2 through 5 years. Method: A trend analysis is presented of antipsychotic medication use (1999-2001 versus 2007) stratified by patient characteristics. Data are analyzed from a large administrative database of privately insured…

Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Markets: Status and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, L.; Heeter, J.; Kreycik, C.

2011-11-01

This paper examines experience in solar renewable energy certificate (SREC) markets in the United States. It describes how SREC markets function--key policy design provisions, eligible technologies, state and regional eligibility rules, solar alternative compliance payments, measurement and verification methods, long-term contracting provisions, and rate caps. It also examines the trends of SREC markets--trading volumes, sourcing trends, trends in the size of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems driven by these markets, and trends in price and compliance. Throughout, the paper explores key issues and challenges facing SREC markets and attempts by policymakers to address some of these market barriers. Data and information presented in this report are derived from SREC tracking systems, brokers and auctions, published reports, and information gleaned from market participants and interviews with state regulators responsible for SREC market implementation. The last section summarizes key findings.

An Innovative Fuzzy-Logic-Based Methodology for Trend Identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.; Wei, Thomas Y.C.; Reifman, Jaques

2001-01-01

A new fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. The methodology may be used for detecting the onset of nuclear power plant (NPP) transients at the earliest possible time and could be of great benefit to diagnostic, maintenance, and performance-monitoring programs. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy methods can help capture important features of on-line signals, integrate the information included in these features, and classify incoming NPP signals into increasing, decreasing, and steady-state trend categories. A computer program named PROTREN is developed and tested for the purpose of verifying this methodology using NPP and simulation data. The results indicate that the new fuzzy-logic-based methodology is capable of detecting transients accurately, it identifies trends reliably and does not misinterpret a steady-state signal as a transient one

On summary measure analysis of linear trend repeated measures data: performance comparison with two competing methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Vossoughi, Mehrdad; Ayatollahi, S M T; Towhidi, Mina; Ketabchi, Farzaneh

2012-03-22

The summary measure approach (SMA) is sometimes the only applicable tool for the analysis of repeated measurements in medical research, especially when the number of measurements is relatively large. This study aimed to describe techniques based on summary measures for the analysis of linear trend repeated measures data and then to compare performances of SMA, linear mixed model (LMM), and unstructured multivariate approach (UMA). Practical guidelines based on the least squares regression slope and mean of response over time for each subject were provided to test time, group, and interaction effects. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the efficacy of SMA vs. LMM and traditional UMA, under different types of covariance structures, was illustrated. All the methods were also employed to analyze two real data examples. Based on the simulation and example results, it was found that the SMA completely dominated the traditional UMA and performed convincingly close to the best-fitting LMM in testing all the effects. However, the LMM was not often robust and led to non-sensible results when the covariance structure for errors was misspecified. The results emphasized discarding the UMA which often yielded extremely conservative inferences as to such data. It was shown that summary measure is a simple, safe and powerful approach in which the loss of efficiency compared to the best-fitting LMM was generally negligible. The SMA is recommended as the first choice to reliably analyze the linear trend data with a moderate to large number of measurements and/or small to moderate sample sizes.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tara L. Crewe

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1 in the wrong direction, or (2 with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically based on the relevant low-frequency principal components reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yanfu; Liu, Hongli; Ma, Ziji

2016-01-01

Rail corrugation dynamic measurement techniques are critical to guarantee transport security and guide rail maintenance. During the inspection process, low-frequency trends caused by rail fluctuation are usually superimposed on rail corrugation and seriously affect the assessment of rail maintenance quality. In order to extract and remove the nonlinear and non-stationary trends from original mixed signals, a hybrid model based ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and modified principal component analysis (MPCA) is proposed in this paper. Compared with the existing de-trending methods based on EMD, this method first considers low-frequency intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) thought to be underlying trend components that maybe contain some unrelated components, such as white noise and low-frequency signal itself, and proposes to use PCA to accurately extract the pure trends from the IMFs containing multiple components. On the other hand, due to the energy contribution ratio between trends and mixed signals is prior unknown, and the principal components (PCs) decomposed by PCA are arranged in order of energy reduction without considering frequency distribution, the proposed method modifies traditional PCA and just selects relevant low-frequency PCs to reconstruct the trends based on the zero-crossing numbers (ZCN) of each PC. Extensive tests are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show the proposed EEMD-PCA-ZCN is an effective tool for trend extraction of rail corrugation measured dynamically. (paper)

National implementation of the UNECE convention on long-range transboundary air pollution (effects). Pt. 1. Deposition loads: methods, modelling and mapping results, trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauger, Thomas [Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Braunschweig (DE). Inst. of Agroecology (FAL-AOE); Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Navigation; Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Roesemann, Claus [Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Braunschweig (DE). Inst. of Agroecology (FAL-AOE)

2008-09-15

The report on the implementation of the UNECE convention on long-range transboundary air pollution Pt.1, deposition loads (methods, modeling and mapping results, trends) includes the following chapters: Introduction, deposition on air pollutants used for the input for critical loads in exceeding calculations, methods applied for mapping total deposition loads, mapping wet deposition, wet deposition mapping results, mapping dry deposition, dry deposition mapping results, cloud and fog mapping results, total deposition mapping results, modeling the air concentration of acidifying components and heavy metals, agricultural emissions of acidifying and eutrophying species.

On test and maintenance: Optimization of allowed outage time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavko, B.; Cepin, M.T.

2000-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment is widely becoming standard method for assessing, maintaining, assuring and improving the nuclear power plant safety. To achieve one of its many potential benefits, the optimization of allowed outage time specified in technical specifications is investigated. Proposed is the risk comparison approach for evaluation of allowed outage time. The risk of shutting the plant down due to failure of certain equipment is compared to the risk of continued plant operation with the specified equipment down. The core damage frequency serves as a risk measure. (author)

Design of block copolymer membranes using segregation strength trend lines

KAUST Repository

Sutisna, Burhannudin; Polymeropoulos, Georgios; Musteata, Valentina-Elena; Peinemann, Klaus-Viktor; Avgeropoulos, Apostolos; Smilgies, Detlef-M.; Hadjichristidis, Nikolaos; Nunes, Suzana Pereira

2016-01-01

composition, polymer molecular weights, casting solution concentration, and evaporation time. We propose here an effective method for designing new block copolymer membranes. The method consists of predetermining a trend line for the preparation of isoporous

Trends in Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korean Children (1999-2012) Based on Palpation and Nonpalpation Detection Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Yoon Young; Jang, Hye Won; Joung, Ji Young; Park, Sun-Mi; Jeong, Dae Joon; Kim, Sun Wook; Chung, Jae Hoon

2015-01-01

Background The incidence of childhood thyroid cancer is increasing in several populations; however, contributing factors have not been adequately discussed. Objectives Our aim was to identify trends of childhood thyroid cancer based on the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR) database and to elucidate changes in detection methods of cancers using a single-center database. Methods Data from the KCCR and Statistics Korea between 1999 and 2012 were used to calculate the crude incidence of thyroid cancer in children. To analyze detection methods for cancers, pediatric patients (aged 0-19 years, n = 126) who underwent thyroid surgery for thyroid cancers at our institution were identified. Subjects were divided into two groups by detection method: (1) palpation group and (2) screening group. Results The crude incidence of childhood thyroid cancer increased from 0.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 1.7 in 2012. The proportion of thyroid cancer among total cancers also increased from 4.4% in 1999 to 10.6% in 2012. Among 126 children from our institution, 91 cases (72%) were identified as palpable neck masses, and the remainder were discovered during imaging studies. The numbers in both groups gradually increased during the study period. Conclusions The incidence of childhood thyroid cancer has steadily increased in Korea. Regarding the detection methods of cancers, most tumors are detected by palpation rather than screening, although the rate of masses identified during screening has increased. PMID:26835429

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

Trends of diabetic nephropathy prevalence in Isfahan, Iran, during 1992-2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tohid Jafari-Koshki

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder and its subsequent complications such as retinopathy, nephropathy, ulcers, disability, and amputation increase the burden of the disease. Patient knowledge-improving programs are employed to prevent disease progression and to improve the quality of life of the patients. In this way, we need to characterize the groups of patients in urgent need for more and rich-in-content programs. In the present study, we used piecewise regression to evaluate the trends of diabetic nephropathy prevalence in patients registered in the Sedigheh-Tahereh Research Center and to identify patients who were in need of more attention. Materials and Methods: Piecewise regression, used in this study, is a statistical method to identify change points, if any, in the trends of mortality rates, prevalence of a disease, or any other trends. Available information for 1,935 patients were retrieved from the database. Joinpoint program 3.5.3 and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 20 was used to fit piecewise regression and obtain descriptive statistics, respectively. Results: We assessed the trend of diabetic nephropathy in different groups of diabetic patients with respect to sex, blood pressure status, education, family history of diabetes, and age. The results showed an increasing trend in females, patients without family history of diabetes, and eover th recent years. The prevalence of diabetic nephropathy in patients with academic education was high. Conclusion: The groups with high prevalence or increasing trends need more preventive intervention and detailed assessment of the present trends. Exploring high-risk groups is beneficial for better policy-making in the future. However, discovering the reasons for the increased trend of the disease is really helpful in controlling diabetes complications.

Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

2015-05-01

Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

On the Nature of Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

2010-01-01

A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

Science.gov (United States)

David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

2010-01-01

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

A New Trend-Following Indicator: Using SSA to Design Trading Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Leles, Michel Carlo Rodrigues; Mozelli, Leonardo Amaral; Guimarães, Homero Nogueira

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric approach that can be used to decompose a time-series as trends, oscillations and noise. Trend-following strategies rely on the principle that financial markets move in trends for an extended period of time. Moving Averages (MAs) are the standard indicator to design such strategies. In this study, SSA is used as an alternative method to enhance trend resolution in comparison with the traditional MA. New trading rules using SSA as indicator are proposed. This paper shows that for the Down Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Shangai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) time-series the SSA trading rules provided, in general, better results in comparison to MA trading rules.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

Science.gov (United States)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Student Disengagement in Higher Education : Two Trends in Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Main

2004-03-01

Full Text Available As internet-based technologies increasingly colonize learning environments in higher education, they allow purposes contrary to learning to have direct access to students. The internet as a governing metaphor for transparent connectivity and equal access is a red herring because the power relations across the connections are unequal. The internet also functions as a mechanism for the operant conditioning of students by commercial interests and for surveillance and control by political authorities, purposes which can, if not restrained, undermine the intentions of teachers using technology.Teachers should resist fully automating their course management, especially grading and assessment because too much mechanization can only produce reductive thinking.A related trend is the gradual replacement of liberal studies by vocational courses that feature technology as the subject. This cooperates with the aforementioned trend to effectively censor the creative and critical thinking that instructors strive to teach.

The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, A. V.

The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

Trends in Medication Treatment for ADHD

Science.gov (United States)

Castle, Lon; Aubert, Ronald E.; Verbrugge, Robert R.; Khalid, Mona; Epstein, Robert S.

2007-01-01

Objective: This study examines demographic trends in the use of medications to treat ADHD in adult and pediatric populations. Method: Using pharmacy claims data for a large population of commercially insured Americans, the study measures ADHD treatment prevalence and drug use from 2000 to 2005. Results: In 2005, 4.4% of children (ages 0 to 19) and…

USE OF TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS AFFECTS PROJECTIONS OF EUCALYPTUS CULTIVATION IN BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samir Lotfi

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Eucalyptus forestry is an important source of competitive advantage for Brazil and, since eucalyptus is a basic raw material for industrial segments that are undergoing great expansion, monitoring the growth rate of cultivated area is increasingly relevant.This study resorted to Trend Impact Analysis (TIA to forecast the planting of eucalyptus in Brazil’s reforested areas, adjusting the linear regression of historical data in the light of three events that were under way or that will probably influence the trend: timber funds, the world financial crisis and Biomass to Liquid (BTL technology.The results allow one to infer that, in the short term, eucalyptus cultivation will expand at a rate similar to that of the linear curve, adversely affected by the world crisis and positively affected by timber funds.By 2016, however, the expansion of eucalyptus plantations is expected, largely because of the commercial scale of BTL technology.Key words: Trend Impact Analysis. Eucalyptus. Future Studies.

Laser spectroscopy of molecules: State-of-the-art and possible trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demtroeder, W.

1990-01-01

A review is given on different techniques in laser spectroscopy of atoms and molecules, which allow high spectral resolution and a very high detection sensitivity of small samples. Analytical applications of the techniques are discussed for basic scientific research, as well as for environmental problems and technical processes. Possible trends of laser spectroscopy, in particular with respect to applications in biology and medicine are shortly outlined. (orig.)

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

2018-01-01

Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the clean air act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Murdoch, Peter S.; Shanley, J.B.

2006-01-01

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining SO2-4 concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2+ + Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO-3), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (???decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early

Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H

2004-07-01

This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O{sub X} (sum O{sub 3} of and NO{sub 2}) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative

Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.

2004-07-01

This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O X (sum O 3 of and NO 2 ) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative trends of ozone

Trends And Economic Assessment Of Integration Processes At The Metal Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Aleksandrovna Romanova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The article discussed the integration process from the perspective of three dimensions that characterize the corresponding increase in the number and appearance of new relationships; strength, character, and stability of emerging communications; dynamics and the appropriate form of the process. In the article, trends of development of integration processes in metallurgy are identified, identification of five stages of development in Russian metal trading are justified. We propose a step by step way to implement the integration process, developed a methodical approach to assessing the feasibility of economic integration processes steel producers and steel traders, including three consecutive stages of its implementing respectively, the principles of reflexive control, entropy approach, the traditional assessment of mergers and acquisitions. The algorithm for the practical realization of the author’s approach, which allows to identify the optimal trajectory of the integration process as a series of horizontal and vertical integration steps is developed.

Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Franzke

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ² distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

China vs. USA: energy consumption of the two giants markets in 2010. Very strong growth in energy consumption in China and USA in 2010 which is well beyond the pre-crisis trend; this allows anticipation of a very strong global growth in 2010; China surpasses 10% of U.S.A's Energy consumption in 2010 - March 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapillonne, Bruno

2011-01-01

Enerdata compares 2010 energy consumption between China and USA: China surpasses 10% of U.S.A's Energy consumption in 2010; Very strong growth in energy consumption in China and USA in 2010 which is well beyond the pre-crisis trend; this allows anticipation of a very strong global growth in 2010. (authors)

Trends in the development of polycondensation and condensation polymers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinogradova, Svetlana V; Vasnev, Valery A

2004-01-01

New trends in the development of polycondensation methods, elucidation of the main principles of macromolecular design of polymeric chains and preparation of novel promising condensation polymers are considered and analysed.

Accounting Research on Health Care - trends and gaps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malmmose, Margit

2018-01-01

and 1990s have gradually changed to a performance measure focus and different atypical areas, signalling increased nuances in the role of accounting in the health care sector. Thus, although the majority of the existing accounting literature has focused on NPM market reforms, NPM health care reform is far......This study reviews three hundred seventeen accounting studies in health care from the past forty years. In addition to a traditional description of the theory and methods applied, this review focuses on the countries that have been studied, the stakeholder perspectives that have been represented...... through data collection and the longitudinal accounting topic focuses that have been developed. The findings illuminate trends and gaps in the literature. Specifically, this study identifies a growing trend of applying interviews as a method of data collection, which increases the possibility...

Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Chaolong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

Level and Temporal Trend of Perfluoroalkyl Acids in Greenlandic Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

2012-01-01

bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

Long-term trends of foF2 independent of geomagnetic activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Danilov

Full Text Available A detailed analysis of the foF2 data at a series of ionospheric stations is performed to reveal long-term trends independent of the long-term changes in geomagnetic activity during the recent decades (nongeomagnetic trends. The method developed by the author and published earlier is used. It is found that the results for 21 out of 23 stations considered agree well and give a relative nongeomagnetic trend of -0.0012 per year (or an absolute nongeomagnetic trend of about -0.012 MHz per year for the period between 1958 and the mid-nineties. The trends derived show no dependence on geomagnetic latitude or local time, a fact confirming their independence of geomagnetic activity. The consideration of the earlier period (1948–1985 for a few stations for which the corresponding data are available provides significantly lower foF2 trends, the difference between the later and earlier periods being a factor of 1.6. This is a strong argument in favor of an anthropogenic nature of the trends derived.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances; mid-latitude ionosphere

Otolaryngology Education: Recent Trends in Publication.

Science.gov (United States)

Cass, Nathan D; Okland, Tyler S; Rodriguez, Kenny; Mann, Scott E

2017-06-01

Objectives (1) Evaluate peer-reviewed publications regarding education in otolaryngology since 2000. (2) Analyze publication trends as compared with overall otolaryngology publications. Study Design Bibliometric analysis. Setting Academic medical center. Subjects and Methods A search for articles regarding education in otolaryngology from 2000 to 2015 was performed with MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, yielding 1220 articles; 362 relevant publications were categorized by topic, subspecialty, subject, article type, and funding source. Impact factors for each journal by year were obtained, and trends of each category over time were analyzed. These were then compared with publication numbers and impact factors for all otolaryngology journals. Results From 2000 to 2015, publications in otolaryngology education increased more rapidly than the field of otolaryngology overall. The most published topics included operative skills training, surgical simulation, and professionalism/career development. Recently there has been a decline in publications related to residency administration and duty hours relative to other topics. Only 12.2% of publications reported a funding source, and only 12.2% of studies were controlled. Conclusion Recent trends in otolaryngology literature reflect an increasing focus on education; however, this work is underfunded and often lacks high-quality evidence.

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

New trends in beer flavour compound analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrés-Iglesias, Cristina; Montero, Olimpio; Sancho, Daniel; Blanco, Carlos A

2015-06-01

As the beer market is steadily expanding, it is important for the brewing industry to offer consumers a product with the best organoleptic characteristics, flavour being one of the key characteristics of beer. New trends in instrumental methods of beer flavour analysis are described. In addition to successfully applied methods in beer analysis such as chromatography, spectroscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance, mass spectrometry or electronic nose and tongue techniques, among others, sample extraction and preparation such as derivatization or microextraction methods are also reviewed. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Trends in programming languages for neuroscience simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Davison, Andrew P; Hines, Michael L; Muller, Eilif

2009-01-01

Neuroscience simulators allow scientists to express models in terms of biological concepts, without having to concern themselves with low-level computational details of their implementation. The expressiveness, power and ease-of-use of the simulator interface is critical in efficiently and accurately translating ideas into a working simulation. We review long-term trends in the development of programmable simulator interfaces, and examine the benefits of moving from proprietary, domain-specific languages to modern dynamic general-purpose languages, in particular Python, which provide neuroscientists with an interactive and expressive simulation development environment and easy access to state-of-the-art general-purpose tools for scientific computing.

Trends in Programming Languages for Neuroscience Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Davison, Andrew P.; Hines, Michael L.; Muller, Eilif

2009-01-01

Neuroscience simulators allow scientists to express models in terms of biological concepts, without having to concern themselves with low-level computational details of their implementation. The expressiveness, power and ease-of-use of the simulator interface is critical in efficiently and accurately translating ideas into a working simulation. We review long-term trends in the development of programmable simulator interfaces, and examine the benefits of moving from proprietary, domain-specific languages to modern dynamic general-purpose languages, in particular Python, which provide neuroscientists with an interactive and expressive simulation development environment and easy access to state-of-the-art general-purpose tools for scientific computing. PMID:20198154

Trends in programming languages for neuroscience simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew P Davison

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Neuroscience simulators allow scientists to express models in terms of biological concepts, without having to concern themselves with low-level computational details of their implementation. The expressiveness, power and ease-of-use of the simulator interface is critical in efficiently and accurately translating ideas into a working simulation. We review long-term trends in the development of programmable simulator interfaces, and examine the benefits of moving from proprietary, domain-specific languages to modern dynamic general-purpose languages, in particular Python, which provide neuroscientists with an interactive and expressive simulation development environment and easy access to state-of-the-art general-purpose tools for scientific computing.

Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

2008-06-30

Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shah Nita H.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

East Antarctica is an order of magnitude larger than its western neighbour and the Greenland ice sheet. It has the greatest potential to contribute to sea level rise of any source, including non-glacial contributors. It is, however, the most challenging ice mass to constrain because of a range of factors including the relative paucity of in-situ observations and the poor signal to noise ratio of Earth Observation data such as satellite altimetry and gravimetry. A recent study using satellite radar and laser altimetry (Zwally et al. 2015) concluded that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) had been accumulating mass at a rate of 136±28 Gt/yr for the period 2003-08. Here, we use a Bayesian hierarchical model, which has been tested on, and applied to, the whole of Antarctica, to investigate the impact of different assumptions regarding the origin of elevation changes of the EAIS. We combined GRACE, satellite laser and radar altimeter data and GPS measurements to solve simultaneously for surface processes (primarily surface mass balance, SMB), ice dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment over the period 2003-13. The hierarchical model partitions mass trends between SMB and ice dynamics based on physical principles and measures of statistical likelihood. Without imposing the division between these processes, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +18 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +39 Gt/yr, to SMB. The total mass trend for that period for the EAIS was 57±20 Gt/yr. Over the period 2003-08, we obtain an ice dynamic trend of 12 Gt/yr and a SMB trend of 15 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 27 Gt/yr. We then imposed the condition that the surface mass balance is tightly constrained by the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and allowed height changes due to ice dynamics to occur in areas of low surface velocities (solution that satisfies all the input data, given these constraints. By imposing these conditions, over the period 2003-13 we obtained a mass

Research review and development trends of human reliability analysis techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Pengcheng; Chen Guohua; Zhang Li; Dai Licao

2011-01-01

Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are reviewed. The theoretical basis of human reliability analysis, human error mechanism, the key elements of HRA methods as well as the existing HRA methods are respectively introduced and assessed. Their shortcomings,the current research hotspot and difficult problems are identified. Finally, it takes a close look at the trends of human reliability analysis methods. (authors)

Changing trends in hair restoration surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Venkataram Mysore

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Androgenetic alopecia is an important and common cause for baldness. Despite recent advances, the drug therapy of this condition remains unsatisfactory. Surgical hair restoration is the only permanent method of treating this condition. Introduction of recent techniques such as follicular unit transplantation have improved the cosmetic results and patient satisfaction. This article discusses the latest trends in hair restoration surgery.

40 CFR 82.8 - Grant of essential use allowances and critical use allowances.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Grant of essential use allowances and critical use allowances. 82.8 Section 82.8 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY... Albemarle Bill Clark Pest Control, Inc. Burnside Services, Inc. Cardinal Professional Products Chemtura Corp...

Trends in Education.

Science.gov (United States)

School Planning & Management, 2002

2002-01-01

Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

Lung Cancer Trends

Science.gov (United States)

... the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both Men and Women” Stay Informed Trends for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ...

Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

2015-01-01

This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

World trends from 2017

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janković Slobodan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

TRENDS IN ESTIMATED MIXING DEPTH DAILY MAXIMUMS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buckley, R; Amy DuPont, A; Robert Kurzeja, R; Matt Parker, M

2007-11-12

Mixing depth is an important quantity in the determination of air pollution concentrations. Fireweather forecasts depend strongly on estimates of the mixing depth as a means of determining the altitude and dilution (ventilation rates) of smoke plumes. The Savannah River United States Forest Service (USFS) routinely conducts prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a heavily wooded Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. For many years, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has provided forecasts of weather conditions in support of the fire program, including an estimated mixing depth using potential temperature and turbulence change with height at a given location. This paper examines trends in the average estimated mixing depth daily maximum at the SRS over an extended period of time (4.75 years) derived from numerical atmospheric simulations using two versions of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This allows for differences to be seen between the model versions, as well as trends on a multi-year time frame. In addition, comparisons of predicted mixing depth for individual days in which special balloon soundings were released are also discussed.

THE MODERN TRENDS AND EXPERIMENTAL METHODS OF TRAINING FUTURE SPECIALISTS IN THE FIELD OF HISTRIONIC ART

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Sergeevna Skvortsova

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This article reflects the specific ways of training specialists in the sphere of histrionic art, contemporary trends and special scientific experiments in the education of actors.We consider the traditional aspects of histrionic art specialists’ occupational fitness and modern requirements upon actor’s psycho-physical training.There also follows historical parallels in studying actor’s energy in the researches of K. Stanislavsky, M. Chekhov, T. Reebo, W. James, A. Maneggetty as well as in the modern researches of L. Gracheva.And there was proved the reason for including some Yoga elements and Academician M.Norbecov’s exercises system into the actors training practice.In the article Yoga for actors considers as a system of emotional and physical preparation to the artistic creative work, as a method of self-control that let an actor be really deep in his creative condition.There also was described an advantageous result of applying at our experimental laboratory of actors Yoga classes some exercises that reveal connection of person’s carriage and his condition in the process of working on the outward demonstration of this or that emotion in order to create appropriate inner state.Object: Studying the influence on the productivity of actors’ professional education of the Yoga elements included into the actors’ psycho-technique practice training.Methods: theoretical, experimental and observational methods of research.Results: After using these methods during the classes the rate of student’s psycho-physical APPARATUS has extremely increased.The area of application: the educational process at artistic creative high schools.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-7-52

Water quality trends in the Blackwater River watershed, West Virginia

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jessica; Welsh, Stuart A.; Anderson, James T.; Fortney, Ronald H.

2015-01-01

An understanding of historic and current water quality is needed to manage and improve aquatic communities within the Blackwater River watershed, WV. The Blackwater River, which historically offered an excellent Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) fishery, has been affected by logging, coal mining, use of off-road vehicles, and land development. Using information-theoretic methods, we examined trends in water quality at 12 sites in the watershed for the 14 years of 1980–1993. Except for Beaver Creek, downward trends in acidity and upward trends in alkalinity, conductivity, and hardness were consistent with decreases in hydrogen ion concentration. Water-quality trends for Beaver Creek were inconsistent with the other sites and reflect ongoing coal-mining influences. Dissolved oxygen trended downward, possibly due to natural conditions, but remained above thresholds that would be detrimental to aquatic life. Water quality changed only slightly within the watershed from 1980–1993, possibly reflecting few changes in development and land uses during this time. These data serve as a baseline for future water-quality studies and may help to inform management planning.

34 CFR 656.30 - What are allowable costs and limitations on allowable costs?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND AREA STUDIES OR FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES What Conditions Must Be... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are allowable costs and limitations on allowable costs? 656.30 Section 656.30 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education...

Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2014-01-01

longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women......Background: The population of Greenland comprises almost 31 000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Methods: Partial...... life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from...

A Bottom-up Trend in Research of Management of Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoko Ishino

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Management of Technology (MOT is defined as an academic discipline of management that enables organizations to manage their technological fundamentals to create competitive advantage. MOT covers a wide range of contents including administrative strategy, R&D management, manufacturing management, technology transfer, production control, marketing, accounting, finance, business ethics, and others. For each topic, researchers have conducted their MOT research at various levels. However, a practical and pragmatic side of MOT surely affects its research trends. Finding changes of MOT research trends, or the chronological transitions of principal subjects, can help understand the key concepts of current MOT. This paper studied a bottom-up trend in research fields in MOT by applying a text-mining method to the conference proceedings of IAMOT (International Association for Management of Technology. First, focusing on only nouns found several keywords, which more frequently emerge over time in the IAMOT proceedings. Then, expanding the scope into other parts of speech viewed the keywords in a natural context. Finally, it was found that the use of an important keyword has qualitatively and quantitatively extended over time. In conclusion, a bottom-up trend in MOT research was detected and the effects of the social situation on the trend were discussed.Keywords: Management of Technology; Text Mining; Research Trend; Bottom-up Trend; Patent

Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R

2017-01-24

Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium population shifts among two-dimensional Data frames. TREND can also carry this out by independent component analysis. We highlight a few examples of finding concurrent processes. TREND extracts dual phases of binding to two sites directly from the NMR spectra of the titrations. In a cardiac movie from magnetic resonance imaging, TREND resolves principal components (PCs) representing breathing and the cardiac cycle. TREND can also reconstruct the series of measurements from selected PCs, as illustrated for a biphasic, NMR-detected titration and the cardiac MRI movie. Fidelity of reconstruction of series of NMR spectra or images requires more PCs than needed to plot the largest population shifts. TREND reads spectra from many spectroscopies in the most common formats (JCAMP-DX and NMR) and multiple movie formats. The TREND package thus provides convenient tools to resolve the processes recorded by diverse biophysical methods. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computer architecture technology trends

CERN Document Server

1991-01-01

Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

Trends in direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription contraceptives.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Min H; Bartz, Deborah; Avorn, Jerry; Seeger, John D

2016-05-01

Despite much speculation about the role of direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) in increasing demand for prescription contraceptives in the United States, there is little published research on this topic. We sought to quantify the prevalence and magnitude of DTCA for prescription contraceptives over the last decade. Using cross-sectional data from January 2005 through December 2014, we performed descriptive analyses on trends in DTCA expenditure for prescription contraceptives. We also quantified the amount of DTCA according to contraceptive method category and individual brand. During the study period, pharmaceutical companies spent a total of US$1.57 billion in the United States on DTCA of prescription contraceptives. Annual expenditure for contraceptive DTCA reached a peak value of US$260 million in 2008, with a progressive decline to a nadir of US$69 million by 2013. Of the contraceptive methods, oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) have been the most heavily promoted, with Yaz (drospirenone/ethinyl estradiol) - the most advertised brand - accounting for US$347 million of cumulative DTCA expenditure. However, DTCA spending on OCPs peaked in 2007 and was overtaken in 2012 by the DTCA of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs), the contraceptive method now receiving the largest amount of DTCA promotion. DTCA is a major form of promotion for prescription contraceptives. Recent trends in DTCA expenditure indicate a shift from promotion of the OCPs to the LARCs. DTCA's effect on provider and patient utilization of various contraceptive methods has yet to be determined. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of DTCA of prescription contraceptive methods and reveals DTCA's importance as a form of promotion. Recent DTCA trends indicate increased promotion of LARCs, coinciding with greater uptake of LARC methods by patients and prescribers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experience in performing trends and patterns analysis of nuclear power plant operational data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novak, T.M.; Williams, M.H.; Dennig, R.L.

1990-01-01

The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) has conducted a formal trends and patterns program since 1982. Since that time, the methods and end products of the program have evolved through experience and changes in the environment for trends and patterns analysis, i.e., increasing regulatory emphasis on operations and balance of plant performance, emergence of performance indicators, the availability of personal computer hardware and software to perform analysis, and changes in the information reported to the USNRC. This paper discusses the technical milestones of the AEOD trends and patterns program in terms of: 1) Sources of operational data, e.g., pre- and post- 1984 Licensee Event Reports, NPRDS, 2) Data storage and retrieval, e.g., Sequence Coding and Search System (SCSS), 3) Statistical methods, e.g., contingency table analysis, 4) Types of results. The paper summarizes the major lessons learned in the process of implementing a trends and patterns program and outlines future direction

Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

2009-01-01

One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

Occupational radiation exposure trends in the nuclear industry of NEA/IAEA Member States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilari, O.; Horan, J.R.; Franzen, F.L.

1980-01-01

After various introductory statements on current occupational radiation exposure trends in nuclear facilities, the authors briefly discuss the problems involved in the application of the ICRP principle of optimization of radiological protection to the design and, in particular, the operation of nuclear plants, with the aim of comparing present exposure trends. To assemble an adequate data base for supporting the technical studies required to optimize radiological protection, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency have launched a survey aimed at collecting information on the levels and trends of occupational radiation exposure in the nuclear industry. The features of this study, based on the answers of NEA/IAEA Member States to a questionnaire, are described. The first results of the survey, regarding the situation and time trends of the average individual dose equivalents and collective dose equivalents for different plant types and for several countries, are also given. A preliminary analysis of the data collected allows certain considerations to be made relating to the influence of size, age and plant type, as well as of different national practices in plant operation and maintenance. (author)

Emerging trends in surface metrology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lonardo, P.M.; Lucca, D.A.; De Chiffre, Leonardo

2002-01-01

Recent advancements and some emerging trends in the methods and instruments used for surface and near surface characterisation are presented, considering the measurement of both topography and physical properties. In particular, surfaces that present difficulties in measurement or require new...... procedures are considered, with emphasis on measurements approaching the nanometre scale. Examples of new instruments and promising innovations for roughness measurement and surface integrity characterisation are presented. The new needs for tolerancing, traceability and calibration are also addressed....

Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

Geomatic Methods for the Analysis of Data in the Earth Sciences: Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, Vol. 95

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlis, Nikolaos K.

Geomatics is a trendy term that has been used in recent years to describe academic departments that teach and research theories, methods, algorithms, and practices used in processing and analyzing data related to the Earth and other planets. Naming trends aside, geomatics could be considered as the mathematical and statistical “toolbox” that allows Earth scientists to extract information about physically relevant parameters from the available data and accompany such information with some measure of its reliability. This book is an attempt to present the mathematical-statistical methods used in data analysis within various disciplines—geodesy, geophysics, photogrammetry and remote sensing—from a unifying perspective that inverse problem formalism permits. At the same time, it allows us to stretch the relevance of statistical methods in achieving an optimal solution.

Thinning method and intensity influence long-term mortality trends in a red pine forest

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew D. Powers; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Christopher R. Webster

2010-01-01

Tree mortality shapes forest development, but rising mortality can represent lost production or an adverse response to changing environmental conditions. Thinning represents a strategy for reducing mortality rates, but different thinning techniques and intensities could have varying impacts depending on how they alter stand structure. We analyzed trends in stand...

Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Bloome, Deirdre

2015-01-01

Racial disparity in family incomes remained remarkably stable over the past 40 years in the United States despite major legal and social reforms. Previous scholarship presents two primary explanations for persistent inequality through a period of progressive change. One highlights continuity: because socioeconomic status is transmitted from parents to children, disparities created through histories of discrimination and opportunity denial may dissipate slowly. The second highlights change: because family income results from joining individual earnings in family units, changing family compositions can offset individuals’ changing economic chances. I examine whether black-white family income inequality trends are better characterized by the persistence of existing disadvantage (continuity) or shifting forms of disadvantage (change). I combine cross-sectional and panel analysis using Current Population Survey, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Census, and National Vital Statistics data. Results suggest that African Americans experience relatively extreme intergenerational continuity (low upward mobility) and discontinuity (high downward mobility); both helped maintain racial inequality. Yet, intergenerational discontinuities allow new forms of disadvantage to emerge. On net, racial inequality trends are better characterized by changing forms of disadvantage than by continuity. Economic trends were equalizing but demographic trends were disequalizing; as family structures shifted, family incomes did not fully reflect labor-market gains. PMID:26456973

Memory device sensitivity trends in aircraft's environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouchet, T.; Fourtine, S.; Calvet, M.C.

1999-01-01

The authors present the SEU (single event upset) sensitivity of 31 SRAM (static random access memory) and 8 DRAM (dynamic random access memory) according to their technologies. 2 methods have been used to compute the SEU rate: the NCS (neutron cross section) method and the BGR (burst generation rate) method, the physics data required by both methods have been either found in scientific literature or directly measured. The use of new technologies implies a quicker time response through a dramatic reduction of chip size and of the amount of energy representing 1 bit. The reduction of size makes less particles are likely to interact with the chip but the reduction of the critical charge implies that these interactions are more likely to damage the chip. The SEU sensitivity is then parted between these 2 opposed trends. Results show that for technologies beyond 0,18 μm these 2 trends balance roughly. Nevertheless the feedback experience shows that the number of errors is increasing. This is due to the fact that avionics requires more and more memory to perform numerical functions, the number of bits is increasing so is the risk of errors. As far as SEU is concerned, RAM devices are less and less sensitive comparatively for 1 bit, and DRAM seem to be less sensitive than SRAM. (A.C.)

Analysis of soybean production and import trends and its import factors in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Ningrum, I. H.; Irianto, H.; Riptanti, E. W.

2018-03-01

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia and to know the trend and projection of Indonesian soybean production as well as the import in 2016-2020. The basic method used in this research is the description analysis method. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series data from 1979-2015. Methods of data analysis using simultaneous equations model with 2SLS (Two Stage Least Square) method and Trend analysis. The results showed that the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia are consumption and production. Consumption has positive effect while production is negatively affected. The percentage changed in soybean imports is greater than the percentage change in consumption and production of soybeans. Consumption is positively influenced by imports and production, while production is influenced positively by consumption and negative by imports. The production trend of soybean in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with a percentage of 11.18% per year. Production in 2016 is projected at 1.110.537 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 1,721,350 tons. The import trend in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with an average percentage of 4.13% per year. Import in 2016 is projected at 2.224.188 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 2.611.270 tons.

Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

OpenAIRE

Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

2010-01-01

Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.; Lombardo, Federico

2018-01-01

The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further

Trend analysis of human error events and assessment of their proactive prevention measure at Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, Satoru; Tanaka, Izumi; Wakabayashi, Toshio

2012-01-01

A trend analysis of human error events is important for preventing the recurrence of human error events. We propose a new method for identifying the common characteristics from results of trend analysis, such as the latent weakness of organization, and a management process for strategic error prevention. In this paper, we describe a trend analysis method for human error events that have been accumulated in the organization and the utilization of the results of trend analysis to prevent accidents proactively. Although the systematic analysis of human error events, the monitoring of their overall trend, and the utilization of the analyzed results have been examined for the plant operation, such information has never been utilized completely. Sharing information on human error events and analyzing their causes lead to the clarification of problems in the management and human factors. This new method was applied to the human error events that occurred in the Rokkasho reprocessing plant from 2010 October. Results revealed that the output of this method is effective in judging the error prevention plan and that the number of human error events is reduced to about 50% those observed in 2009 and 2010. (author)

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-12-23

For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

THE TREND AND DYNAMICSDISTRIBUTION OF THE JAKARTASTOCKEXCHANGE(JSXCOMPOSITE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edi Cahyono

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In thispaperwe discuss the dynamics of the JakartaStock Exchange(JSXComposite.The dynamicsindicatesperformance indicator ofseveral industries inIndonesia.The data ispresented as time series. To predict the dynamicsfrom thedata, however,is still difficult. In general,it is almost impossible to predict suchdynamics for the case of high frequency data. Hence, we do not predict thedynamics. Rather, we seek the trend and the probability density function(pdf.For a ‘small’ periodof time, the pdf isbased on the assumption that the dynamicsis normally distributed. Mathematically speaking, this is a time averaging of data,and in some cases the data is presented in the form of candle sticks. The trend willbe approximated by a higher order polynomial function which is sought byapplying a least square methods. On the other hand, the probability densityfunction of the data within each candle stick is obtained bycomputingstandarddeviation ofthe data with respect to the trend inthe candle stick.

What parents say about the allowance: Function of the allowance for parents of different economic incomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irani Lauer Lellis

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The practice of giving allowance is used by several parents in different parts of the world and can contribute to the economic education of children. This study aimed to investigate the purposes of the allowance with 32 parents of varying incomes. We used the focus group technique and Alceste software to analyze the data. The results involved two classes related to the process of using the allowance. These classes have covered aspects of the role of socialization and education allowance, serving as an instrument of reward, but sometimes encouraging bad habits in children. The justification of the fathers concerning the amount of money to be given to the children and when to stop giving allowance were also highlighted.   Keywords: allowance; economic socialization; parenting practices.

Measurement of the super-allowed branching ratio of $^{10}$C

CERN Multimedia

We propose to measure the super-allowed branching ratio of $^{10}$C, the lightest of all nuclei decaying by a $0^{+} \\rightarrow 0^{+}$ transition. The light nuclei have a much stronger impact on limits of physics beyond the standard model than heavier nuclei. We propose a measurement which should reach a precision similar to the two latest measurements, however, with a different method employing a precisely efficiency-calibrated germanium detector. As no method exists to greatly improve on previous results, the branching ratio has to be measured with independent methods.

Contact method to allow benign failure in ceramic capacitor having self-clearing feature

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, John D; Taylor, Ralph S

2012-06-26

A capacitor exhibiting a benign failure mode has a first electrode layer, a first ceramic dielectric layer deposited on a surface of the first electrode, and a second electrode layer disposed on the ceramic dielectric layer, wherein selected areas of the ceramic dielectric layer have additional dielectric material of sufficient thickness to exhibit a higher dielectric breakdown voltage than the remaining majority of the dielectric layer. The added thickness of the dielectric layer in selected areas allows lead connections to be made at the selected areas of greater dielectric thickness while substantially eliminating a risk of dielectric breakdown and failure at the lead connections, whereby the benign failure mode is preserved.

Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

Trends in price and productivity in the fur sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Henning Otte

2016-01-01

in the long term. The terms of trade - the ratio between output and input prices - is also unstable but with a clear negative long-term trend. The developments in prices and productivity cause high demands on management both on individual fur farms and further down the value chain.......Price and productivity are two important competitive factors for the fur skin production worldwide. In the paper it is demonstrated that there are significant long-term trends towards increasing productivity and decreasing price ratios. The trend follows the same pattern as for other agricultural...... products. The analysis is based on Danish conditions as a case. By using different measurement methods it is demonstrated that productivity is increasing in several places in fur value chain. The fur skin prices, which are largely determined in international markets, are both very volatile and decreasing...

49 CFR 266.11 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable costs. 266.11 Section 266.11... TRANSPORTATION ACT § 266.11 Allowable costs. Allowable costs include only the following costs which are properly allocable to the work performed: Planning and program operation costs which are allowed under Federal...

Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marchal Paul

2003-04-01

Full Text Available A key assumption of many fish stock assessment models is that catchability is constant over time. We assume here that trends in catchability may occur through fishing power creeping. The tuning fleets, which are prone to fishing power development, may be identified using the Hybrid method. A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the Hybrid method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis. Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole. The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances of the North Sea cod, plaice and sole assessments could be enhanced by accounting for an overall annual increase in the catchability of some of the tuning fleets. No significant trends could be detected in the catchability of the tuning fleets relative to the assessment of the North Sea saithe. By contrast with the traditional assessment, the spawning biomass of cod is expected not to have increased between 1997 and 1998, while the fishing mortality of sole is expected to have increased over the same period.

Trends in Job Satisfaction among German Nurses from 1990 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin

2016-01-01

Objective: Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. Methods: We...... used 1990–2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment......, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Results: Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas...

34 CFR 304.21 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Allowable costs. 304.21 Section 304.21 Education... Grantee § 304.21 Allowable costs. In addition to the allowable costs established in the Education... allowable expenditures by projects funded under the program: (a) Cost of attendance, as defined in Title IV...

50 CFR 80.15 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable costs. 80.15 Section 80.15... WILDLIFE RESTORATION AND DINGELL-JOHNSON SPORT FISH RESTORATION ACTS § 80.15 Allowable costs. (a) What are allowable costs? Allowable costs are costs that are necessary and reasonable for accomplishment of approved...

Primary and secondary battery consumption trends in Sweden 1996-2013: method development and detailed accounting by battery type.

Science.gov (United States)

Patrício, João; Kalmykova, Yuliya; Berg, Per E O; Rosado, Leonardo; Åberg, Helena

2015-05-01

In this article, a new method based on Material Flow Accounting is proposed to study detailed material flows in battery consumption that can be replicated for other countries. The method uses regularly available statistics on import, industrial production and export of batteries and battery-containing electric and electronic equipment (EEE). To promote method use by other scholars with no access to such data, several empirically results and their trends over time, for different types of batteries occurrence among the EEE types are provided. The information provided by the method can be used to: identify drivers of battery consumption; study the dynamic behavior of battery flows - due to technology development, policies, consumers behavior and infrastructures. The method is exemplified by the study of battery flows in Sweden for years 1996-2013. The batteries were accounted, both in units and weight, as primary and secondary batteries; loose and integrated; by electrochemical composition and share of battery use between different types of EEE. Results show that, despite a fivefold increase in the consumption of rechargeable batteries, they account for only about 14% of total use of portable batteries. Recent increase in digital convergence has resulted in a sharp decline in the consumption of primary batteries, which has now stabilized at a fairly low level. Conversely, the consumption of integrated batteries has increased sharply. In 2013, 61% of the total weight of batteries sold in Sweden was collected, and for the particular case of alkaline manganese dioxide batteries, the value achieved 74%. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

2010-01-01

Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

Current status of food irradiation in the world. Trend in Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kume, Tamikazu

2002-01-01

This review describes the current status of food irradiation in the world and particularly, its trends in Asia, based on the report of the economic scale investigation on the irradiation in United States and Japan (2001) and on the information of 12th International Meeting on Radiation Processing in France in 2001 and on personal communications. International Consultative Group on Food Irradiation promotes its activities of irradiation globally and 46 countries are affiliated. Food irradiation is allowed in 52 countries. In 1999, 257,000 t of food is irradiated in the world, of which 1/3 is due to spice. The facilities for the irradiation have such sources as 60 Co and 137 Cs γ-rays, electron beam of <10 MeV and X-ray with <5 MeV. Detection methods of irradiated foods are summarized by the project of Analytical Detection Methods for Irradiation Treatment of Foods. The US is the most advanced country in the irradiation and, in Japan, only irradiation of potato is permitted. The detailed present status is also described of Bangladesh, China (the irradiation is most widely conducted in the world), India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Recently Australia and New Zealand have started the irradiation. (K.H.)

2 CFR 215.27 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 2 Grants and Agreements 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Allowable costs. 215.27 Section 215.27... § 215.27 Allowable costs. For each kind of recipient, there is a set of Federal principles for determining allowable costs. Allowability of costs shall be determined in accordance with the cost principles...

46 CFR 154.421 - Allowable stress.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable stress. 154.421 Section 154.421 Shipping COAST... § 154.421 Allowable stress. The allowable stress for the integral tank structure must meet the American Bureau of Shipping's allowable stress for the vessel's hull published in “Rules for Building and Classing...

Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

2015-01-01

Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

76 FR 32340 - Federal Travel Regulation; Temporary Duty (TDY) Travel Allowances (Taxes); Relocation Allowances...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-06

... reflection of the actual tax impact on the employee. Therefore, this proposed rule offers the one-year RITA... to estimate the additional income tax liability that you incur as a result of relocation benefits and... Allowances (Taxes); Relocation Allowances (Taxes) AGENCY: Office of Governmentwide Policy (OGP), General...

Characterization of the State-of-the-art and Identification of Main Trends for Ecodesign Tools and Methods: Classifying Three Decades of Research and Implementation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pigosso, Daniela Cristina Antelmi; McAloone, T. C.; Rozenfeld, H.

2015-01-01

Ecodesign is a proactive management approach that integrates environmental considerations in product development and related processes (such as purchasing, marketing and research & development). Ecodesign aims to improve environmental performance of products throughout their life cycle, from raw...... material extraction and manufacturing to use and end-of-life. Over the last three decades, an intense development of new ecodesign methods and tools could be observed, but uptake by the industry remains a challenge. The purpose of this research is to perform a review of existing ecodesign tools and methods...... through a systematic literature review linked to bibliometric analyses, in order to explore the state of the art of ecodesign methods and tools and identify trends and opportunities in the field for the next decade....

46 CFR 154.440 - Allowable stress.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable stress. 154.440 Section 154.440 Shipping COAST... Tank Type A § 154.440 Allowable stress. (a) The allowable stresses for an independent tank type A must... Commandant (CG-522). (b) A greater allowable stress than required in paragraph (a)(1) of this section may be...

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, Peter; Andersen, Lars Bo; Bugge, Anna

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes...... in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes...... prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes...

Socioeconomic status and trends in alcohol drinking in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-92

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osler, M; Jørgensen, Torben; Grønbaek, M

2001-01-01

AIMS: To examine trends in alcohol drinking in different educational groups. METHODS: Data from three cross-sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92 were analysed to estimate trends in abstention, moderate, heavy, and sporadic heavy alcohol use in relation to level of ...

Use of hierarchical models to analyze European trends in congenital anomaly prevalence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavadino, Alana; Prieto-Merino, David; Addor, Marie-Claude

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Despite known associations between different anomalies, current surveillance methods examine trends within each subgroup separately. We aimed to evaluate whether hierarchical statistical methods that c...

New trends in shape optimization

CERN Document Server

Leugering, Günter

2015-01-01

This volume reflects “New Trends in Shape Optimization” and is based on a workshop of the same name organized at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg in September 2013. During the workshop senior mathematicians and young scientists alike presented their latest findings. The format of the meeting allowed fruitful discussions on challenging open problems, and triggered a number of new and spontaneous collaborations. As such, the idea was born to produce this book, each chapter of which was written by a workshop participant, often with a collaborator. The content of the individual chapters ranges from survey papers to original articles; some focus on the topics discussed at the Workshop, while others involve arguments outside its scope but which are no less relevant for the field today. As such, the book offers readers a balanced introduction to the emerging field of shape optimization.

Mitigation of Global Warming with Focus on Personal Carbon Allowances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meyer, Niels I

2008-01-01

The mitigation of global warming requires new efficient systems and methods. The paper presents a new proposal called personal carbon allowances with caps on the CO2 emission from household heating and electricity and on emission from transport in private cars and in personal air flights. Results...

Revisiting a model-independent dark energy reconstruction method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lazkoz, Ruth; Salzano, Vincenzo; Sendra, Irene [Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Fisika Teorikoaren eta Zientziaren Historia Saila, Zientzia eta Teknologia Fakultatea, Bilbao (Spain)

2012-09-15

In this work we offer new insights into the model-independent dark energy reconstruction method developed by Daly and Djorgovski (Astrophys. J. 597:9, 2003; Astrophys. J. 612:652, 2004; Astrophys. J. 677:1, 2008). Our results, using updated SNeIa and GRBs, allow to highlight some of the intrinsic weaknesses of the method. Conclusions on the main dark energy features as drawn from this method are intimately related to the features of the samples themselves, particularly for GRBs, which are poor performers in this context and cannot be used for cosmological purposes, that is, the state of the art does not allow to regard them on the same quality basis as SNeIa. We find there is a considerable sensitivity to some parameters (window width, overlap, selection criteria) affecting the results. Then, we try to establish what the current redshift range is for which one can make solid predictions on dark energy evolution. Finally, we strengthen the former view that this model is modest in the sense it provides only a picture of the global trend and has to be managed very carefully. But, on the other hand, we believe it offers an interesting complement to other approaches, given that it works on minimal assumptions. (orig.)

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Application of nuclear-physical methods for studies in the solid state physics area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorlachrv, I.D.; Knyazev, B.B.; Platov, A.B.

2004-01-01

The set of nuclear-physical methods developed on the heavy ion accelerator at the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the National Nuclear Center of the Republic of Kazakhstan allows to conduct an examination of elementary content as well as to obtain the elements distribution in a sample in their depth and surface. This information could be very important for study of samples wide range integral parameters and the characteristics of sputtered layers and implanted films. The beam analysis methods, as well as Rutherford backscattering methods (RBS), nuclear reaction analysis (NRA), proton-induced X-ray emission analysis (PIXE) are included in the complex structure. Besides for expand an analyzed elements range and precision increase for quantitative characteristics of elementarily content of samples the X-ray florescent analysis method with isotope excitation (RFA) is using in the capacity complementary PIXE method. Modernization of proton beam transportation system at the heavy ion accelerator allows to develop a new analytical trend - combination of the proton micro-probe with PIXE analysis. In this case the information about examined sample elementary content is within size field ∼10 μm. The beam scanning by the surface is allowing to obtain the elements distribution by the two spatial coordinates connected with the surface. This information may be useful in the case of an existence of a micro-inclusions in the sample

Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump.

Science.gov (United States)

Bovet, Alexandre; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A

2018-06-06

Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite the large amount of work addressing this question, there has been no clear validation of online social media opinion trend with traditional surveys. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to build an in-domain training set of the order of a million tweets. We validate our method in the context of 2016 US Presidential Election by comparing the Twitter opinion trend with the New York Times National Polling Average, representing an aggregate of hundreds of independent traditional polls. The Twitter opinion trend follows the aggregated NYT polls with remarkable accuracy. We investigate the dynamics of the social network formed by the interactions among millions of Twitter supporters and infer the support of each user to the presidential candidates. Our analytics unleash the power of Twitter to uncover social trends from elections, brands to political movements, and at a fraction of the cost of traditional surveys.

Oil prices: Breaks and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera, José

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzaneh Zolala

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

ADSA Foundation Scholar Award: Trends in culture-independent methods for assessing dairy food quality and safety: emerging metagenomic tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeung, Marie

2012-12-01

Enhancing the quality and safety of dairy food is critical to maintaining the competitiveness of dairy products in the food and beverage market and in reinforcing consumer confidence in the dairy industry. Raw milk quality has a significant effect on finished product quality. Several microbial groups found in raw milk have been shown to adversely affect the shelf life of pasteurized milk. Current microbiological criteria used to define milk quality are based primarily on culture-dependent methods, some of which are perceived to lack the desired sensitivity and specificity. To supplement traditional methods, culture-independent methods are increasingly being used to identify specific species or microbial groups, and to detect indicator genes or proteins in raw milk or dairy products. Some molecular subtyping techniques have been developed to track the transmission of microbes in dairy environments. The burgeoning "-omics" technologies offer new and exciting opportunities to enhance our understanding of food quality and safety in relation to microbes. Metagenomics has the potential to characterize microbial diversity, detect nonculturable microbes, and identify unique sequences or other factors associated with dairy product quality and safety. In this review, fluid milk will be used as the primary example to examine the adequacy and validity of conventional methods, the current trend of culture-independent methods, and the potential applications of metagenomics in dairy food research. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

2010-01-01

Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

Trend analysis of the power law process using Expectation-Maximization algorithm for data censored by inspection intervals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taghipour, Sharareh; Banjevic, Dragan

2011-01-01

Trend analysis is a common statistical method used to investigate the operation and changes of a repairable system over time. This method takes historical failure data of a system or a group of similar systems and determines whether the recurrent failures exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend. Most trend analysis methods proposed in the literature assume that the failure times are known, so the failure data is statistically complete; however, in many situations, such as hidden failures, failure times are subject to censoring. In this paper we assume that the failure process of a group of similar independent repairable units follows a non-homogenous Poisson process with a power law intensity function. Moreover, the failure data are subject to left, interval and right censoring. The paper proposes using the likelihood ratio test to check for trends in the failure data. It uses the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to find the parameters, which maximize the data likelihood in the case of null and alternative hypotheses. A recursive procedure is used to solve the main technical problem of calculating the expected values in the Expectation step. The proposed method is applied to a hospital's maintenance data for trend analysis of the components of a general infusion pump.

Trends in Social Science: The Impact of Computational and Simulative Models

Science.gov (United States)

Conte, Rosaria; Paolucci, Mario; Cecconi, Federico

This paper discusses current progress in the computational social sciences. Specifically, it examines the following questions: Are the computational social sciences exhibiting positive or negative developments? What are the roles of agent-based models and simulation (ABM), network analysis, and other "computational" methods within this dynamic? (Conte, The necessity of intelligent agents in social simulation, Advances in Complex Systems, 3(01n04), 19-38, 2000; Conte 2010; Macy, Annual Review of Sociology, 143-166, 2002). Are there objective indicators of scientific growth that can be applied to different scientific areas, allowing for comparison among them? In this paper, some answers to these questions are presented and discussed. In particular, comparisons among different disciplines in the social and computational sciences are shown, taking into account their respective growth trends in the number of publication citations over the last few decades (culled from Google Scholar). After a short discussion of the methodology adopted, results of keyword-based queries are presented, unveiling some unexpected local impacts of simulation on the takeoff of traditionally poorly productive disciplines.

Determining New Trends with Regard to the Studies in Curricula and Instruction Field

Science.gov (United States)

Hursen, Cigdem; Koruroglu, Ayten; Bahali, Sultan; Mercan, Naziyet

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine the new trends concerning curricula and instruction. The articles that are published in journals of SSCI and ERIC databases are taken into the scope of this study. The new trends regarding relevant literature are tried to be identified by analysing 3079 articles in total through the content analysis method.…

Marketing Trends to Watch

Science.gov (United States)

Circle, Alison

2009-01-01

This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

Application of column tests and electrical resistivity methods for leachate transport monitoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wychowaniak Dorota

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Development of the human civilization leads to the pollution of environment. One of the contamination which are a real threat to soil and groundwater are leachates from landfills. In this paper the solute transport through soil was considered. For this purpose, the laboratory column tests of chlorides tracer and leachates transport on two soil samples have been carried out. Furthermore, the electrical resistivity method was applied as auxiliary tool to follow the movements of solute through the soil column what allowed to compare between the results obtained with column test method and electrical resistivity measurements. Breakthrough curves obtained by conductivity and resistivity methods represents similar trends which leads to the conclusion about the suitability of electrical resistivity methods for contamination transport monitoring in soil-water systems.

Trends in the development of radioisotope batteries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goeldner, R.; Leonhardt, J.W.; Radmaneche, R.; Schlegel, H.

1978-01-01

Improved methods for producing radioisotopes by nuclear fuel reprocessing and the rapid development of microelectronics offer new possibilities for utilizing radioisotope batteries. A review is given of the main principles of conversion of decay energy into electric power. The current state of such energy sources is evaluated. Finally, new fields of application and further trends in the development are indicated. (author)

Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Angélica Rêgo de Queiroz

2018-05-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB, to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

Science.gov (United States)

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

The structure and emerging trends of construction safety management research: a bibliometric review.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Huakang; Zhang, Shoujian; Su, Yikun

2018-03-29

Recently, construction safety management (CSM) practices and systems have become important topics for stakeholders to take care of human resources. However, few studies have attempted to map the global research on CSM. A comprehensive bibliometric review was conducted in this study based on multiple methods. In total, 1172 CSM-related papers from the Web of Science Core Collection database were examined. The analyses focused on publication year, country-institute, publication source, author and research topics. The results indicated that the USA, China, Australia and the UK took leading positions in CSM research. Two branches of journals were identified, namely the branch of engineering science and that of safety science and social science. Additionally, seven themes together with 28 specific topics were detected to allow researchers to track the main structure and temporal evolution of CSM research. Finally, the main research trends and potential research directions were discussed to guide the future research.

Current trends in molecular diagnostics of chronic myeloid leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vinhas, Raquel; Cordeiro, Milton; Pedrosa, Pedro; Fernandes, Alexandra R; Baptista, Pedro V

2017-08-01

Nearly 1.5 million people worldwide suffer from chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), characterized by the genetic translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11.2), involving the fusion of the Abelson oncogene (ABL1) with the breakpoint cluster region (BCR) gene. Early onset diagnosis coupled to current therapeutics allow for a treatment success rate of 90, which has focused research on the development of novel diagnostics approaches. In this review, we present a critical perspective on current strategies for CML diagnostics, comparing to gold standard methodologies and with an eye on the future trends on nanotheranostics.

Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

2015-01-01

: To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-08-01

A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

Epidemiological Trends of Spine Trauma: An Australian Level 1 Trauma Centre Study

OpenAIRE

Tee, J. W.; Chan, C. H. P.; Fitzgerald, M. C. B.; Liew, S. M.; Rosenfeld, J. V.

2013-01-01

Knowledge of current epidemiology and spine trauma trends assists in public resource allocation, fine-tuning of primary prevention methods, and benchmarking purposes. Data on all patients with traumatic spine injuries admitted to the Alfred Hospital, Melbourne between May 1, 2009, and January 1, 2011, were collected from the Alfred Trauma Registry, Alfred Health medical database, and Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. Epidemiological trends were analyzed as a general cohort, with...

Trends for Methane Oxidation at Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kleis, Jesper; Jones, Glenn; Abild-Pedersen, Frank

2009-01-01

First-principles calculations are used to predict a plausible reaction pathway for the methane oxidation reaction. In turn, this pathway is used to obtain trends in methane oxidation activity at solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) anode materials. Reaction energetics and barriers for the elementary...... the Ni surfaces to other metals of interest. This allows the reactivity over the different metals to be understood in terms of two reactivity descriptors, namely, the carbon and oxygen adsorption energies. By combining a simple free-energy analysis with microkinetic modeling, activity landscapes of anode...

Current and future trends in marine image annotation software

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes-Pereira, Jose Nuno; Auger, Vincent; Beisiegel, Kolja; Benjamin, Robert; Bergmann, Melanie; Bowden, David; Buhl-Mortensen, Pal; De Leo, Fabio C.; Dionísio, Gisela; Durden, Jennifer M.; Edwards, Luke; Friedman, Ariell; Greinert, Jens; Jacobsen-Stout, Nancy; Lerner, Steve; Leslie, Murray; Nattkemper, Tim W.; Sameoto, Jessica A.; Schoening, Timm; Schouten, Ronald; Seager, James; Singh, Hanumant; Soubigou, Olivier; Tojeira, Inês; van den Beld, Inge; Dias, Frederico; Tempera, Fernando; Santos, Ricardo S.

2016-12-01

Given the need to describe, analyze and index large quantities of marine imagery data for exploration and monitoring activities, a range of specialized image annotation tools have been developed worldwide. Image annotation - the process of transposing objects or events represented in a video or still image to the semantic level, may involve human interactions and computer-assisted solutions. Marine image annotation software (MIAS) have enabled over 500 publications to date. We review the functioning, application trends and developments, by comparing general and advanced features of 23 different tools utilized in underwater image analysis. MIAS requiring human input are basically a graphical user interface, with a video player or image browser that recognizes a specific time code or image code, allowing to log events in a time-stamped (and/or geo-referenced) manner. MIAS differ from similar software by the capability of integrating data associated to video collection, the most simple being the position coordinates of the video recording platform. MIAS have three main characteristics: annotating events in real time, posteriorly to annotation and interact with a database. These range from simple annotation interfaces, to full onboard data management systems, with a variety of toolboxes. Advanced packages allow to input and display data from multiple sensors or multiple annotators via intranet or internet. Posterior human-mediated annotation often include tools for data display and image analysis, e.g. length, area, image segmentation, point count; and in a few cases the possibility of browsing and editing previous dive logs or to analyze the annotations. The interaction with a database allows the automatic integration of annotations from different surveys, repeated annotation and collaborative annotation of shared datasets, browsing and querying of data. Progress in the field of automated annotation is mostly in post processing, for stable platforms or still images

Trends in PET imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moses, William W.

2000-01-01

Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is a well established method for obtaining information on the status of certain organs within the human body or in animals. This paper presents an overview of recent trends PET instrumentation. Significant effort is being expended to develop new PET detector modules, especially those capable of measuring depth of interaction. This is aided by recent advances in scintillator and pixellated photodetector technology. The other significant area of effort is development of special purpose PET cameras (such as for imaging breast cancer or small animals) or cameras that have the ability to image in more than one modality (such as PET / SPECT or PET / X-Ray CT)

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul Aziz, Omar I.; Burn, Donald H.

2006-03-01

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime were analyzed for the Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. The procedure utilized the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to detect trends, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach for correcting time-series data for autocorrelation and a bootstrap resampling method to account for the cross-correlation structure of the data. A total of 19 hydrological and six meteorological variables were selected for the study. Analysis was conducted on hydrological data from a network of 54 hydrometric stations and meteorological data from a network of 10 stations. The results indicated that several hydrological variables exhibit a greater number of significant trends than are expected to occur by chance. Noteworthy were strong increasing trends over the winter month flows of December to April as well as in the annual minimum flow and weak decreasing trends in the early summer and late fall flows as well as in the annual mean flow. An earlier onset of the spring freshet is noted over the basin. The results are expected to assist water resources managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the Mackenzie River Basin.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2006-01-01

contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

2012-07-15

This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, J. G.J.; Peters, J. A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

2012-07-15

This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

29 CFR 95.27 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... cost principles applicable to the entity incurring the costs. Thus, allowability of costs incurred by... Governments.” The allowability of costs incurred by non-profit organizations is determined in accordance with... Organizations.” The allowability of costs incurred by institutions of higher education is determined in...

24 CFR 84.27 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... to the entity incurring the costs. Thus, allowability of costs incurred by State, local or federally..., “Cost Principles for State and Local Governments.” The allowability of costs incurred by non-profit...-Profit Organizations.” The allowability of costs incurred by institutions of higher education is...

SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

2017-09-01

Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

Worldwide trends of the mine surveying services

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Z. (Coal Science Research Institute, Tangshan (China))

1991-08-01

This author discusses the role of mine surveying in the present and future mining industry, and summarizes the main trends of development as follows: active training of specialists and technical experts; employment of advance surveying technology and data and image processing technology; research and development of measuring method and equipment for accurate measurement of strata movement and deformation; accurate forecasts of ground motion or earthquakes.

45 CFR 1180.56 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable costs. 1180.56 Section 1180.56 Public... by a Grantee General Administrative Responsibilities § 1180.56 Allowable costs. (a) Determination of costs allowable under a grant is made in accordance with government-wide cost principles in applicable...

7 CFR 550.25 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... cost principles applicable to the entity incurring the costs. Thus, allowability of costs incurred by... at 2 CFR part 225. The allowability of costs incurred by non-profit organizations is determined in... at 2 CFR part 230. The allowability of costs incurred by institutions of higher education is...

46 CFR 154.428 - Allowable stress.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable stress. 154.428 Section 154.428 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CERTAIN BULK DANGEROUS CARGOES SAFETY STANDARDS FOR... § 154.428 Allowable stress. The membrane tank and the supporting insulation must have allowable stresses...

Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

2014-01-01

Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

75 FR 14442 - Federal Travel Regulation (FTR); Relocation Allowances-Relocation Income Tax Allowance (RITA) Tables

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-25

... GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION [GSA Bulletin FTR 10-04] Federal Travel Regulation (FTR); Relocation Allowances-- Relocation Income Tax Allowance (RITA) Tables AGENCY: Office of Governmentwide Policy... (73 FR 35952) specifying that GSA would no longer publish the RITA tables found in 41 CFR Part 301-17...

49 CFR 19.27 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... applicable to the entity incurring the costs. Thus, allowability of costs incurred by State, local or... Circular A-87, “Cost Principles for State and Local Governments.” The allowability of costs incurred by non... Principles for Non-Profit Organizations.” The allowability of costs incurred by institutions of higher...

36 CFR 1210.27 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... applicable to the entity incurring the costs. Thus, allowability of costs incurred by State, local or... Circular A-87, “Cost Principles for State and Local Governments.” The allowability of costs incurred by non... Principles for Non-Profit Organizations.” The allowability of costs incurred by institutions of higher...

7 CFR 3019.27 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... applicable to the entity incurring the costs. Thus, allowability of costs incurred by State, local or... Circular A-87, “Cost Principles for State and Local Governments.” The allowability of costs incurred by non... Principles for Non-Profit Organizations.” The allowability of costs incurred by institutions of higher...

49 CFR 230.24 - Maximum allowable stress.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Maximum allowable stress. 230.24 Section 230.24... Allowable Stress § 230.24 Maximum allowable stress. (a) Maximum allowable stress value. The maximum allowable stress value on any component of a steam locomotive boiler shall not exceed 1/4 of the ultimate...

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas J Rodhouse

Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

OpenAIRE

Narvydas, A

2014-01-01

The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

42 CFR 417.802 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable costs. 417.802 Section 417.802 Public... PLANS Health Care Prepayment Plans § 417.802 Allowable costs. (a) General rule. The costs that are considered allowable for HCPP reimbursement are the same as those for reasonable cost HMOs and CMPs specified...

34 CFR 675.33 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... costs. An institution's share of allowable costs may be in cash or in the form of services. The... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Allowable costs. 675.33 Section 675.33 Education... costs. (a)(1) Allowable and unallowable costs. Except as provided in paragraph (a)(2) of this section...

A retrospective review of trends and clinical characteristics of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective: Epidemiological studies indicate that methamphetamine (MA) abuse poses a major challenge to health in the Western Cape. The objectives of this study were to retrospectively assess the trends, clinical characteristics and treatment demand of MArelated admissions to a psychiatric ward in this region. Method: ...

The research trends of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A bibliometric method was used to analyse the trends and challenges of Humanities and Social Sciences research by using research data reflecting on ongoing and completed Arts, Humanities and Social Science research publications submitted by staff and students from 1994 – 2008 to the university's Research Office.

40 CFR 82.10 - Availability of consumption allowances in addition to baseline consumption allowances for class I...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Availability of consumption allowances in addition to baseline consumption allowances for class I controlled substances. 82.10 Section 82.10... STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls § 82.10 Availability of consumption allowances in...

An adaptive DES smodel that allows wall-resolved eddy simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yin, Zifei; Durbin, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A Detached Eddy Simulation model that mimics dynamic Smagorinsky formulation. • Adaptivity of model allows wall resolved eddy simulation on sufficient grids. • Ability to simulate natural and bypass transition is tested. - Abstract: A modification to the Adaptive-DES method of Yin et al. (2015) is proposed to improve its near-wall behavior. The modification is to the function (C_l_i_m) that imposes a lower limit on the dynamically evaluated coefficient (C_D_E_S). The modification allows Adaptive-DES to converge to wall-resolved eddy simulation, when grid resolution supports it. On coarse grids, or at high Reynolds number, it reverts to shielded DES — that is to DDES. The new formulation predicts results closer to wall-resolved LES than the previous formulation. It provides an ability to simulate transition: it is tested in both orderly and bypass transition. In fully turbulent, attached flow, the modification has little effect. Any improvement in predictions stem from better near-wall behavior of the adaptive method.

Predicting medical professionals' intention to allow family presence during resuscitation: A cross sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Meng-Kuan; Aritejo, Bayu Aji; Tang, Jing-Shia; Chen, Chien-Liang; Chuang, Chia-Chang

2017-05-01

Family presence during resuscitation is an emerging trend, yet it remains controversial, even in countries with relatively high acceptance of family presence during resuscitation among medical professionals. Family presence during resuscitation is not common in many countries, and medical professionals in these regions are unfamiliar with family presence during resuscitation. Therefore, this study predicted the medical professionals' intention to allow family presence during resuscitation by applying the theory of planned behaviour. A cross-sectional survey. A single medical centre in southern Taiwan. Medical staffs including physicians and nurses in a single medical centre (n=714). A questionnaire was constructed to measure the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, and behavioural intentions as well as the awareness of family presence during resuscitation and demographics. In total, 950 questionnaires were distributed to doctors and nurses in a medical centre. Among the 714 valid questionnaires, only 11 participants were aware of any association in Taiwan that promotes family presence during resuscitation; 94.7% replied that they were unsure (30.4%) or that their unit did not have a family presence during resuscitation policy (74.8%). Regression analysis was performed to predict medical professionals' intention to allow family presence during resuscitation. The results indicated that only positive attitudes and subjective norms regarding family presence during resuscitation and clinical tenure could predict the intention to allow family presence during resuscitation. Because Family presence during resuscitation practice is not common in Taiwan and only 26.19% of the participants agreed to both items measuring the intention to allow family presence during resuscitation, we recommend the implementation of a family presence during resuscitation education program that will enhance the positive beliefs

The future(s) of emission allowances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenzweig, K.M.; Villarreal, J.A.

1993-01-01

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) established a sulfur dioxide emission allowance system to be implemented by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Under the two-phase implementation of the program, electric utilities responsible for approximately 70 percent of SO 2 emissions in the United States will be issued emission allowances, each representing authorization to emit one ton of sulfur dioxide during a specified calendar year or a later year. Allowances will be issued to utilities with electric-generating units affected by the CAAA limits, as well as to certain entities which may choose to opt-in to the program. Each utility or other emission source must hold a number of allowances at least equal to its total SO 2 emissions during any given year. Unused allowances may be sold, traded, or held in inventory for use against SO 2 emissions in future years. Anyone can buy and hold allowances, including affected utilities, non-utility companies, SO 2 allowances brokers and dealers, environmental groups, and individuals. During Phase I of the program, allowances equivalent to approximately 6.4 million tons of SO 2 emissions will be allocated annually to a group of 110 large, high-SO 2 -emitting power plants. In Phase II, virtually all power-generating utilities (representing approximately 99.4 percent of total US utility emissions) will be subject to the program. The number of allowances issued will increase to approximately 8.9 million a year, with certain special allocations raising the actual number issued to 9.48 million between the years 2000 to 2009, and 8.95 million yearly thereafter. Thus, the CAAA goal of annual emissions of 9 million tons should be achieved by 2010, when virtually all US emission sources will be participating in the program

50 CFR 85.41 - Allowable costs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable costs. 85.41 Section 85.41... Use/Acceptance of Funds § 85.41 Allowable costs. (a) Allowable grant costs are limited to those costs... applicable Federal cost principles in 43 CFR 12.60(b). Purchase of informational signs, program signs, and...

46 CFR 154.447 - Allowable stress.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Allowable stress. 154.447 Section 154.447 Shipping COAST... Tank Type B § 154.447 Allowable stress. (a) An independent tank type B designed from bodies of revolution must have allowable stresses 3 determined by the following formulae: 3 See Appendix B for stress...

Which Trend is your Friend?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Calculation of radiological consequences of a radioactive matter release into the biosphere from a final repository using the code BioTREND; Berechnung radiologischer Konsequenzen der Freisetzung radioaktiver Stoffe aus einem Endlager in die Biosphaere mit dem Programm BioTREND

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reiche, Tatiana; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2014-09-15

The aim of the work was the development of a module for the code RepoTREND that allows the evaluation of radiation exposure in the biosphere. The selection of the characteristics relevant for the risk assessment is described. The program module bioTREND is based on the results of fission product release and dispersion calculations and a separate biosphere modeling. Exposure data (annual effective doses and organ doses) can be calculated for individuals and collectives. Optional is the calculation of radiotoxicity concentrations and radiotoxicity fluxes. Several recommendations for the improvement of the calculation module are included.

1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Manara, Veronica; Bassi, Manuela; Brunetti, Michele; Cagnazzi, Barbara; Maugeri, Maurizio

2018-05-01

A new surface solar radiation database of 74 daily series is set up for the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) for the 1990-2016 period. All the series are subjected to a detailed quality control, homogenization and gap-filling procedure and are transformed into relative annual/seasonal anomaly series. Finally, a gridded version (0.5°×0.5°) of the database is generated. The resulting series show an increasing tendency of about + 2.5% per decade at annual scale, with strongest trend in autumn (+ 4% per decade). The only exception is winter, showing a negative but not significant trend. Considering the plain and mountain mean series, the trends are more intense for low than for high elevations with a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.03% per decade per 100 m at annual scale and values up to - 0.07% per decade per 100 m in spring. Focusing on clear days only (selected by CM SAF ClOud fractional cover dataset from METeosat first and second generation—Edition 1 satellite data over the 1991-2015 period), trend significance strongly increases and both low and high elevation records exhibit a positive trend in all seasons. However, the trends result slightly lower than for all-sky days (with the only exception of winter). The differences observed under clear-sky conditions between low and high elevations are more pronounced in winter, where the trend shows a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.1% per decade every 100 m. Overall, this paper shows how a high station density allows performing a more detailed quality control thanks to the higher performances in detecting the inhomogeneities with higher data availability and capturing regional peculiarities otherwise impossible to observe.

Trends in the incidence of dementia: design and methods in the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.

Science.gov (United States)

Chibnik, Lori B; Wolters, Frank J; Bäckman, Kristoffer; Beiser, Alexa; Berr, Claudine; Bis, Joshua C; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bos, Daniel; Brayne, Carol; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Debette, Stephanie; Davis-Plourde, Kendra L; Dufouil, Carole; Fornage, Myriam; Grasset, Leslie; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos; Helmer, Catherine; Ikram, M Arfan; Ikram, M Kamran; Kern, Silke; Kuller, Lewis H; Launer, Lenore; Lopez, Oscar L; Matthews, Fiona; Meirelles, Osorio; Mosley, Thomas; Ower, Alison; Psaty, Bruce M; Satizabal, Claudia L; Seshadri, Sudha; Skoog, Ingmar; Stephan, Blossom C M; Tzourio, Christophe; Waziry, Reem; Wong, Mei Mei; Zettergren, Anna; Hofman, Albert

2017-10-01

Several studies have reported a decline in incidence of dementia which may have large implications for the projected burden of disease, and provide important guidance to preventive efforts. However, reports are conflicting or inconclusive with regard to the impact of gender and education with underlying causes of a presumed declining trend remaining largely unidentified. The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium aggregates data from nine international population-based cohorts to determine changes in the incidence of dementia since 1990. We will employ Poisson regression models to calculate incidence rates in each cohort and Cox proportional hazard regression to compare 5-year cumulative hazards across study-specific epochs. Finally, we will meta-analyse changes per decade across cohorts, and repeat all analysis stratified by sex, education and APOE genotype. In all cohorts combined, there are data on almost 69,000 people at risk of dementia with the range of follow-up years between 2 and 27. The average age at baseline is similar across cohorts ranging between 72 and 77. Uniting a wide range of disease-specific and methodological expertise in research teams, the first analyses within the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium are underway to tackle outstanding challenges in the assessment of time-trends in dementia occurrence.

Cognitive function and advanced kidney disease: longitudinal trends and impact on decision-making

OpenAIRE

Iyasere, Osasuyi; Okai, David; Brown, Edwina

2017-01-01

Background: Cognitive impairment commonly affects renal patients. But little is known about the influence of dialysis modality on cognitive trends or the influence of cognitive impairment on decision-making in renal patients. This study evaluated cognitive trends amongst chronic kidney disease (CKD), haemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. The relationship between cognitive impairment and decision-making capacity (DMC) was also assessed. Methods: Patients were recruited from...

prevalence trend among blood donors in jimma university

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

METHODS: A descriptive retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out to see the trend of HIV ... RESULTS: A total of 3788 subjects had donated blood from 2007 to 2010 of ... Any segment of a population; rich, poor, old, ... per year, with approximately 70 percent of cases in males and 30 percent in females (7) and the.

The modern trends in radiochemistry and their applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, I.M.; Furnari, J.C.

2012-01-01

The utilization of Radiochemistry and Nuclear Chemistry is described, particularly with respect to nuclear analytical techniques and radioisotope applications in several fields. Especially, and in connections with the recent advances of Nuclear Medicine, the present contributions of Radiopharmacy, linked to both diagnostic and therapeutic methods, are outlined. The modern trends and their future are discussed. (authors). [es

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

The new Space Shuttle Transportation System (STS) - Problem, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending program

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford, J. L.; Rodney, G. A.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the NASA Space Shuttle Trend Analysis program. The four main areas of the program - problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending - are defined, along with motivation for these areas, the statistical methods used, and illustrative Space Shuttle applications. Also described is the NASA Safety, Reliability, Maintainability and Quality Assurance (SRM&QA) Management Information Center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues. Finally, the computer data bases used to support the program and future program enhancements are discussed.

MEMS packaging: state of the art and future trends

Science.gov (United States)

Bossche, Andre; Cotofana, Carmen V. B.; Mollinger, Jeff R.

1998-07-01

Now that the technology for Integrated sensor and MEMS devices has become sufficiently mature to allow mass production, it is expected that the prices of bare chips will drop dramatically. This means that the package prices will become a limiting factor in market penetration, unless low cost packaging solutions become available. This paper will discuss the developments in packaging technology. Both single-chip and multi-chip packaging solutions will be addressed. It first starts with a discussion on the different requirements that have to be met; both from a device point of view (open access paths to the environment, vacuum cavities, etc.) and from the application point of view (e.g. environmental hostility). Subsequently current technologies are judged on their applicability for MEMS and sensor packaging and a forecast is given for future trends. It is expected that the large majority of sensing devices will be applied in relative friendly environments for which plastic packages would suffice. Therefore, on the short term an important role is foreseen for recently developed plastic packaging techniques such as precision molding and precision dispensing. Just like in standard electronic packaging, complete wafer level packaging methods for sensing devices still have a long way to go before they can compete with the highly optimized and automated plastic packaging processes.

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and particle swarm optimization techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Manalu, Gandhi Maruli Tua; Pan, Jeng-Shyang; Liu, Hsiang-Chuan

2013-06-01

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and particle swarm optimization (PSO) techniques. First, we fuzzify the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we group the two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, we obtain the optimal weighting vector for each fuzzy-trend logical relationship group by using PSO techniques to perform the forecasting. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets better forecasting performance than the existing methods.

Laser isotope and isomer separations: History and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Letok'ov, V.S.

1990-01-01

Paper will review history and principles of laser isotope and nuclear isomer separation: laser multistep photoionization of isotopic and isomeric atoms, laser IR-UV two-step photodissociation of molecules, laser IR multiphoton photodissociation of polyatomic molecules. The comparison and areas of applications of these methods will be considered. Paper will discuss a present state of art of technology of these methods in practical scale in various countries. In conclusion the trends of research in this field including applications of laser-separated isotopes and isomers will be considered

Comparison between linear and nonlinear trends in NOAA-15 AMSU-A brightness temperatures during 1998-2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qin, Z. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Zou, X. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Weng, F. [NOAA/NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-10-15

Brightness temperature observations from Microwave Sounding Unit and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on board National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites have been widely utilized for estimating the global climate trend in the troposphere and stratosphere. A common approach for deriving the trend is linear regression, which implicitly assumes the trend being a straight line over the whole length of a time series and is often highly sensitive to the data record length. This study explores a new adaptive and temporally local data analysis method - Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) - for estimating the global trends. In EEMD, a non-stationary time series is decomposed adaptively and locally into a sequence of amplitude-frequency modulated oscillatory components and a time-varying trend. The AMSU-A data from the NOAA-15 satellite over the time period from October 26, 1998 to August 7, 2010 are employed for this study. Using data over Amazon rainforest areas, it is shown that channel 3 is least sensitive to the orbital drift among four AMSU-A surface sensitive channels. The decadal trends of AMSU-A channel 3 and other eight channels in the troposphere and stratosphere are deduced and compared using both methods. It is shown that the decadal climate trends of most AMSU-A channels are nonlinear except for channels 3-4 in Northern Hemisphere only and channels 12-13. Although the decadal trend variation of the global average brightness temperature is no more than 0.2 K, the regional decadal trend variation could be more (less) than 3 K (-3 K) in high latitudes and over high terrains. (orig.)

Trends in der IT-Sicherheit

Science.gov (United States)

Eckert, Claudia

Ich möchte Ihnen einen Überblick geben über Trends, Challenges, offene Fragestellungen sowie Lösungsansätze aus dem Bereich der IT-Sicherheit. Meine Vorredner haben mir schon eine wunderbare Basis dafür geschaffen, indem sie wichtige Trends im Bereich IT bereits angesprochen haben. Deshalb werde ich auf diese Trends, nämlich das Internet of Things and Services nur noch einmal kurz eingehen, um daran dann die IT-Sicherheitsthemen, die sich aus diesen IT-Trends ergeben, zu skizzieren und anschließend Lösungen vorstellen, die insbesondere im Forschungsumfeld entwickelt werden, aber schon reif sind, auch in die unternehmerische Praxis übernommen zu werden.

40 CFR 73.27 - Special allowance reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Special allowance reserve. 73.27 Section 73.27 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) SULFUR DIOXIDE ALLOWANCE SYSTEM Allowance Allocations § 73.27 Special allowance reserve. (a...

Future trends in the application of isotopes and radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glubrecht, H [Institut fuer Biophysik, Technische Universitaet Hannover (Germany)

1977-12-15

medicine and biomedical research is radioimmunoassay (RIA). Measurement of elemental composition of human body samples also has a high diagnostic value for large-scale screening of infectious and non-infectious diseases. Strong increase is to be foreseen in the application of gauges and other radiation analytical methods. Promising techniques in the petrol industry are the quantitative determination of hydrocarbon saturation by the use of pulsed-neutron capture logs and logs based on measurements of gamma rays from inelastic neutron scattering. Mineral exploration and mining may strongly profit from the development of portable EDXRF instruments using isotopic sources and high resolution Si(Li) detectors. In basic studies of process dynamics, tracer techniques may play an increasing role, particularly in the optimization of low-grade ore exploitation. Ionizing radiation can produce cross-linking and grafting in plastic and rubber. It is to be expected that more attention will be paid to these energy-saving processes in the future. The use of ?natural? isotope measurements ({sup 14}C, {sup 3}H) and of isotope ratios ({sup 2}H/{sup 1}H, {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O) has probably reached the highest level of sophistication in its application to problems associated with the assessment of water resources. The world-wide energy problem has prompted a new assessment of the potential of geothermal sources of energy. Environmental isotopes are being used in the hydrological study of geothermal systems environmental control and monitoring without making use of nuclear methods. NAA and EDXRF allow fast screening of more than 30 elements of importance in environmental pollution control. Future trends can be described by extrapolating from the present situation. Although the trends discussed in this paper may change it is clear that isotopes and radiation have an increasingly wide field of application i and strong future developments.

Physician's emerging roles relating to trends in health information technology.

Science.gov (United States)

David Johnson, J

2014-08-12

Objective: To determine the new roles that physicians will adopt in the near future to adjust to accelerating trends from managed care to outcome-based practice to health care reform to health information technology to the evolving role of health consumers. Methods: Trends and related developments concerning the changing roles of physicians based on prior literature reviews. Results: Six possible roles, traditional, gatekeeper, coach, navigator, informatician and one voice among many, are discussed in terms of physician's centrality, patient autonomy, decision-making and uncertainty, information seeking, satisfaction and outcomes, particularly those related to compliance. Conclusion: A greater understanding of these emerging roles could lead to more efficacious outcomes in our ever changing, increasingly complex medical system. Patients often have little understanding of emerging trends that lead to the development of specialized roles such as hospitalist and navigators and, relatedly, the evolving roles of physicians.

Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

2014-04-01

We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

Chronologic and Geographic Trends of Triangular Fibrocartilage Complex Repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Taichi; Sterbenz, Jennifer M; Chung, Kevin C

2017-11-01

This article shows trends in triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) repair since 1990 by geographic area and year. The repair methods presented in the literature were inside-out, outside-in, all-inside, and open repair. The outside-in technique was reported most often for ulnar-side tears, whereas the inside-out technique was reported most frequently for radial-side tears. Recently, a foveal reattachment technique for ulnar-side tears has garnered attention and has been reported with increasing frequency, especially in Asia, because the deepest portion of TFCC, attached to fovea, plays a key role in stabilizing the distal radioulnar joint. Understanding these trends can help clinicians best treat TFCC tears. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

Trends that have influenced the Swedish radiography profession over the last four decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, B.T.; Lundgren, S.M.; Lundén, M.

2017-01-01

Introduction: The expansion of the radiography profession in recent decades has widened the scope of radiographic practice. This has raised questions about which trends have had an impact on the profession over the years. The study aim was to explore trends that have influenced the radiography profession over the last four decades. Methods: A qualitative design was used. Eleven focus group interviews inspired by the Scenario Planning Method were conducted at 11 diagnostic radiology departments in public hospitals in Sweden. The target group consisted of 48 registered radiographers. To analyse the data, qualitative content analysis was used. Results: Thematic data analysis revealed three broad categories; technological development and radiation doses, current status of the radiography profession and specialisation leading to expert knowledge. Each category derived from two or three sub-categories. Conclusion: The results demonstrate significant trends of influences on the radiography profession in Sweden over the last four decades. New methods and technology and control of radiation doses have had a favourable effect on the development of the radiography profession. Nevertheless, current status such as shortage of radiographers has had an adverse way. Specialisation leading to expert knowledge has an influence on career advancement and a specialist education regulated by the law, might be a prerequisite for the development of the radiography profession. - Highlights: • Scenario Planning Method, a relatively underutilised methodology, was used. • The findings report the influencing trends perceived by Swedish radiographers. • Technological development and radiation dose awareness impacted the profession. • Shortage, work shifting and higher independency influenced the profession. • Expert knowledge affects career advancement and requests specialist education.

Empirical Evidence on Time-Varying Hedging Effectiveness of Emissions Allowances under Departures from the Cost-of-Carry Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Chang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Under departures from the cost-of-carry theory, traded spot prices and conditional volatility disturbed from futures market have significant impacts on futures price of emissions allowances, and then we propose time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness estimation using ECM-GARCH model. Our empirical results show that conditional variance, conditional covariance, and their correlation between between spot and futures prices exhibit time-varying trends. Conditional volatility of spot prices, conditional volatility disturbed from futures market, and conditional correlation of market noises implied from spot and futures markets have significant effects on time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. In the immature emissions allowances market, market participants optimize portfolio sizes between spot and futures assets using historical market information and then achieve higher risk reduction of assets portfolio revenues; accordingly, we can obtain better hedging effectiveness through time-varying hedge ratios with departures from the cost-of-carry theory.

No Consistent Evidence for Advancing or Delaying Trends in Spring Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xufeng; Xiao, Jingfeng; Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong; Ma, Mingguo; Che, Tao; Dai, Liyun; Wang, Shaoying; Wu, Jinkui

2017-12-01

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change and has significant effects on the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The Tibetan Plateau, the Earth's "third pole," is a unique region for studying the long-term trends in vegetation phenology in response to climate change because of the sensitivity of its alpine ecosystems to climate and its low-level human disturbance. There has been a debate whether the trends in spring phenology over the Tibetan Plateau have been continuously advancing over the last two to three decades. In this study, we examine the trends in the start of growing season (SOS) for alpine meadow and steppe using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS)3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set (1982-2014), the GIMMS NDVI data set (1982-2006), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data set (2001-2014), the Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT-VEG) NDVI data set (1999-2013), and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) NDVI data set (1998-2007). Both logistic and polynomial fitting methods are used to retrieve the SOS dates from the NDVI data sets. Our results show that the trends in spring phenology over the Tibetan Plateau depend on both the NDVI data set used and the method for retrieving the SOS date. There are large discrepancies in the SOS trends among the different NDVI data sets and between the two different retrieval methods. There is no consistent evidence that spring phenology ("green-up" dates) has been advancing or delaying over the Tibetan Plateau during the last two to three decades. Ground-based budburst data also indicate no consistent trends in spring phenology. The responses of SOS to environmental factors (air temperature, precipitation, soil temperature, and snow depth) also vary among NDVI data sets and phenology retrieval methods. The increases in winter and spring

Trends of Science Education Research: An Automatic Content Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yueh-Hsia; Chang, Chun-Yen; Tseng, Yuen-Hsien

2010-01-01

This study used scientometric methods to conduct an automatic content analysis on the development trends of science education research from the published articles in the four journals of "International Journal of Science Education, Journal of Research in Science Teaching, Research in Science Education, and Science Education" from 1990 to 2007. The…

40 CFR 60.4142 - Hg allowance allocations.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Hg allowance allocations. 60.4142... Coal-Fired Electric Steam Generating Units Hg Allowance Allocations § 60.4142 Hg allowance allocations. (a)(1) The baseline heat input (in MMBtu) used with respect to Hg allowance allocations under...

Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men?

Science.gov (United States)

Vandelanotte, Corneel; Duncan, Mitch J; Caperchione, Cristina; Hanley, Christine; Mummery, W Kerry

2010-06-01

Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01-1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed.

Global fertility and population trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Bongaarts, John

2015-01-01

Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Wage Sorting Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

Photocleavable DNA barcode-antibody conjugates allow sensitive and multiplexed protein analysis in single cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Agasti, Sarit S; Liong, Monty; Peterson, Vanessa M; Lee, Hakho; Weissleder, Ralph

2012-11-14

DNA barcoding is an attractive technology, as it allows sensitive and multiplexed target analysis. However, DNA barcoding of cellular proteins remains challenging, primarily because barcode amplification and readout techniques are often incompatible with the cellular microenvironment. Here we describe the development and validation of a photocleavable DNA barcode-antibody conjugate method for rapid, quantitative, and multiplexed detection of proteins in single live cells. Following target binding, this method allows DNA barcodes to be photoreleased in solution, enabling easy isolation, amplification, and readout. As a proof of principle, we demonstrate sensitive and multiplexed detection of protein biomarkers in a variety of cancer cells.

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among

Primary and secondary battery consumption trends in Sweden 1996–2013: Method development and detailed accounting by battery type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patrício, João; Kalmykova, Yuliya; Berg, Per E.O.; Rosado, Leonardo; Åberg, Helena

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Developed MFA method was validated by the national statistics. • Exponential increase of EEE sales leads to increase in integrated battery consumption. • Digital convergence is likely to be a cause for primary batteries consumption decline. • Factors for estimation of integrated batteries in EE are provided. • Sweden reached the collection rates defined by European Union. - Abstract: In this article, a new method based on Material Flow Accounting is proposed to study detailed material flows in battery consumption that can be replicated for other countries. The method uses regularly available statistics on import, industrial production and export of batteries and battery-containing electric and electronic equipment (EEE). To promote method use by other scholars with no access to such data, several empirically results and their trends over time, for different types of batteries occurrence among the EEE types are provided. The information provided by the method can be used to: identify drivers of battery consumption; study the dynamic behavior of battery flows – due to technology development, policies, consumers behavior and infrastructures. The method is exemplified by the study of battery flows in Sweden for years 1996–2013. The batteries were accounted, both in units and weight, as primary and secondary batteries; loose and integrated; by electrochemical composition and share of battery use between different types of EEE. Results show that, despite a fivefold increase in the consumption of rechargeable batteries, they account for only about 14% of total use of portable batteries. Recent increase in digital convergence has resulted in a sharp decline in the consumption of primary batteries, which has now stabilized at a fairly low level. Conversely, the consumption of integrated batteries has increased sharply. In 2013, 61% of the total weight of batteries sold in Sweden was collected, and for the particular case of alkaline manganese

Primary and secondary battery consumption trends in Sweden 1996–2013: Method development and detailed accounting by battery type

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patrício, João, E-mail: joao.patricio@chalmers.se [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg (Sweden); Kalmykova, Yuliya; Berg, Per E.O.; Rosado, Leonardo [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg (Sweden); Åberg, Helena [The Faculty of Education, University of Gothenburg, 40530 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2015-05-15

Highlights: • Developed MFA method was validated by the national statistics. • Exponential increase of EEE sales leads to increase in integrated battery consumption. • Digital convergence is likely to be a cause for primary batteries consumption decline. • Factors for estimation of integrated batteries in EE are provided. • Sweden reached the collection rates defined by European Union. - Abstract: In this article, a new method based on Material Flow Accounting is proposed to study detailed material flows in battery consumption that can be replicated for other countries. The method uses regularly available statistics on import, industrial production and export of batteries and battery-containing electric and electronic equipment (EEE). To promote method use by other scholars with no access to such data, several empirically results and their trends over time, for different types of batteries occurrence among the EEE types are provided. The information provided by the method can be used to: identify drivers of battery consumption; study the dynamic behavior of battery flows – due to technology development, policies, consumers behavior and infrastructures. The method is exemplified by the study of battery flows in Sweden for years 1996–2013. The batteries were accounted, both in units and weight, as primary and secondary batteries; loose and integrated; by electrochemical composition and share of battery use between different types of EEE. Results show that, despite a fivefold increase in the consumption of rechargeable batteries, they account for only about 14% of total use of portable batteries. Recent increase in digital convergence has resulted in a sharp decline in the consumption of primary batteries, which has now stabilized at a fairly low level. Conversely, the consumption of integrated batteries has increased sharply. In 2013, 61% of the total weight of batteries sold in Sweden was collected, and for the particular case of alkaline manganese

Trends in Health Information-Seeking Behaviour in the U.S. Foreign-Born Population Based on the Health Information National Trends Survey, 2005-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, JungWon; Huang, Hong; Soojung Kim

2017-01-01

Introduction: This study investigated trends in the health information-seeking behaviour of the U.S. foreign-born population over a ten-year period and examined whether health information disparities between this population and native-born citizens have decreased. Method: Data were collected from six iterations of the Health Information National…

An Investigation to Manufacturing Analytical Services Composition using the Analytical Target Cascading Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Kai-Wen; Kulvatunyou, Boonserm; Jung, Kiwook; Prabhu, Vittaldas

2017-01-01

As cloud computing is increasingly adopted, the trend is to offer software functions as modular services and compose them into larger, more meaningful ones. The trend is attractive to analytical problems in the manufacturing system design and performance improvement domain because 1) finding a global optimization for the system is a complex problem; and 2) sub-problems are typically compartmentalized by the organizational structure. However, solving sub-problems by independent services can result in a sub-optimal solution at the system level. This paper investigates the technique called Analytical Target Cascading (ATC) to coordinate the optimization of loosely-coupled sub-problems, each may be modularly formulated by differing departments and be solved by modular analytical services. The result demonstrates that ATC is a promising method in that it offers system-level optimal solutions that can scale up by exploiting distributed and modular executions while allowing easier management of the problem formulation.

Spectrophotometric methods for determining noble metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gur'eva, R.F.; Savvin, S.B.

2002-01-01

The main trends of the development of spectrophotometric methods for determining noble metals (NMs) including ruthenium are considered. One of these trends is the synthesis and study of new, highly sensitive and selective organic reagents for determining NMs in solutions and solid phase. Another trend is the search for and developing of new methodological approaches (techniques) and color reactions, including those that involve modified and immobilized reagents. The third trend includes the improvement of equipment and automation. It is shown that the present-day spectrophotometry can provide the determination of NMs in samples with concentrations from several to 10 -4 % (photometry and differential photometry) and down to 10 -7 % (test and sorption-spectroscopic methods based on photometry and diffuse-reflectance spectroscopy, including the use of chromaticity functions) [ru

Fuzzy method of recognition of high molecular substances in evidence-based biology

Science.gov (United States)

Olevskyi, V. I.; Smetanin, V. T.; Olevska, Yu. B.

2017-10-01

Nowadays modern requirements to achieving reliable results along with high quality of researches put mathematical analysis methods of results at the forefront. Because of this, evidence-based methods of processing experimental data have become increasingly popular in the biological sciences and medicine. Their basis is meta-analysis, a method of quantitative generalization of a large number of randomized trails contributing to a same special problem, which are often contradictory and performed by different authors. It allows identifying the most important trends and quantitative indicators of the data, verification of advanced hypotheses and discovering new effects in the population genotype. The existing methods of recognizing high molecular substances by gel electrophoresis of proteins under denaturing conditions are based on approximate methods for comparing the contrast of electrophoregrams with a standard solution of known substances. We propose a fuzzy method for modeling experimental data to increase the accuracy and validity of the findings of the detection of new proteins.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Modeling the Performance of Fast Mulipole Method on HPC platforms

KAUST Repository

Ibeid, Huda

2012-04-06

The current trend in high performance computing is pushing towards exascale computing. To achieve this exascale performance, future systems will have between 100 million and 1 billion cores assuming gigahertz cores. Currently, there are many efforts studying the hardware and software bottlenecks for building an exascale system. It is important to understand and meet these bottlenecks in order to attain 10 PFLOPS performance. On applications side, there is an urgent need to model application performance and to understand what changes need to be made to ensure continued scalability at this scale. Fast multipole methods (FMM) were originally developed for accelerating N-body problems for particle based methods. Nowadays, FMM is more than an N-body solver, recent trends in HPC have been to use FMMs in unconventional application areas. FMM is likely to be a main player in exascale due to its hierarchical nature and the techniques used to access the data via a tree structure which allow many operations to happen simultaneously at each level of the hierarchy. In this thesis , we discuss the challenges for FMM on current parallel computers and future exasclae architecture. Furthermore, we develop a novel performance model for FMM. Our ultimate aim of this thesis is to ensure the scalability of FMM on the future exascale machines.

Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

2014-01-01

To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

Trends of rape in the Mthatha area, Eastern Cape, South Africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objectives: To estimate the trend of sexual assault in the Mthatha area of South Africa. Methods: ... prevention of pregnancy, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections; .... African communities, it is considered a legitimate right of male sexual.

Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

CERN Document Server

Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

2015-01-01

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

Trends in Educational Augmented Reality Studies: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Sirakaya, Mustafa; Alsancak Sirakaya, Didem

2018-01-01

This study aimed to identify the trends in the studies conducted on Educational Augmented Reality (AR). 105 articles found in ERIC, EBSCOhost and ScienceDirect databases were reviewed with this purpose in mind. Analyses displayed that the number of educational AR studies has increased over the years. Quantitative methods were mostly preferred in…

Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-11

including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

Science.gov (United States)

Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

2018-05-01

Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

Allowance Holdings and Transfers Data Inventory

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Allowance Holdings and Transfers Data Inventory contains measured data on holdings and transactions of allowances under the NOx Budget Trading Program (NBP), a...

Methods of Services Provision in Slovak Towns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emília Sičáková-Beblavá

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This article deals with the methods of services provision in Slovak towns.  It addresses decision-making concerning selected services provision, based on a transaction cost economic model. The article looks at five types of services from that point of view. These are core services, i.e., services that are provided in most Slovak towns, thereby allowing outcomes of decision-making to be compared, and services which can be outsourced according to transaction cost theory. Findings partially confirm the hypothesis: Slovak towns do outsource, though “insourcing” moderately prevails. However, a comparison of several research studies in the area indicates a trend towards higher outsourcing of such local services provision.  The findings show that public bodies do not always select the most suitable methods of services provision, as suggested by the transaction costs theory (the Brown-Potoski model. This indicates that it is not only economic models that influence decision-making concerning the organization of services provision in the Slovak towns.

40 CFR 82.20 - Availability of consumption allowances in addition to baseline consumption allowances for class...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Availability of consumption allowances in addition to baseline consumption allowances for class II controlled substances. 82.20 Section 82...) PROTECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls § 82.20 Availability of consumption...

Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosemeire de Olanda Ferraz

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. Methods: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. Results: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. Conclusions: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.

A novel process control method for a TT-300 E-Beam/X-Ray system

Science.gov (United States)

Mittendorfer, Josef; Gallnböck-Wagner, Bernhard

2018-02-01

This paper presents some aspects of the process control method for a TT-300 E-Beam/X-Ray system at Mediscan, Austria. The novelty of the approach is the seamless integration of routine monitoring dosimetry with process data. This allows to calculate a parametric dose for each production unit and consequently a fine grain and holistic process performance monitoring. Process performance is documented in process control charts for the analysis of individual runs as well as historic trending of runs of specific process categories over a specified time range.

Trend scanning, scouting and foresight techniques

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rohrbeck, René

2013-01-01

Corporate foresight comprises all activities that are aimed at identifying changes on the basis of early signals in trends, creating a consolidated future outlook, and using these insights into the future in ways useful to the organization. These activities include developing a strategy, creating...... innovations, managing risk, and exploring new markets. The author identifies five challenges that companies may face when developing corporate foresight, which include the detection of signals that yield a competitive advantage, the detection of change when terminology is unclear, and the selection...... into methods suitable for exploring the future on the market side and methods more suitable for the technology aspect. Thinking in scenarios is a good choice when direction and rate of change are unknown....

Forecasting the Allocation Ratio of Carbon Emission Allowance Currency for 2020 and 2030 in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shihong Zeng

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Many countries and scholars have used various strategies to improve and optimize the allocation ratios for carbon emission allowances. This issue is more urgent for China due to the uneven development across the country. This paper proposes a new method that divides low-carbon economy development processes into two separate periods: from 2020 to 2029 and from 2030 to 2050. These two periods have unique requirements and emissions reduction potential; therefore, they must involve different allocation methods, so that reduction behaviors do not stall the development of regional low-carbon economies. During the first period, a more deterministic economic development approach for the carbon emission allowance allocation ratio should be used. During the second period, more adaptive and optimized policy guidance should be employed. We developed a low-carbon economy index evaluation system using the entropy weight method to measure information filtering levels. We conducted vector autoregressive correlation tests, consulted 60 experts for the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and we conducted max-min standardized data processing tests. This article presents first- and second-period carbon emission allowance models in combination with a low-carbon economy index evaluation system. Finally, we forecast reasonable carbon emission allowance allocation ratios for China for the periods starting in 2020 and 2030. A good allocation ratio for the carbon emission allowance can help boost China’s economic development and help the country reach its energy conservation and emissions reduction goals.

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

2018-01-01

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.