WorldWideScience

Sample records for methodologies risk assessment

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  4. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  5. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  6. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  7. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  8. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  9. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  10. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  11. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  12. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  13. Intersystem LOCA risk assessment: methodology and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.; Auflick, L.J.; Blackman, H.S.; Gertman, D.I.; Hanley, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors, hardware and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an intersystem loss-of-coolant accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish the goals of this program, a mehtodology has been developed for estimating ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. The steps in this methodology are briefly described, along with the results obtained from an application of the methodology at three pressurized water reactors. Also included are the results of a screening study of boiling water reactors. ((orig.))

  14. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  15. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  16. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  17. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  18. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  19. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  20. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  1. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

  3. Recommendations for benefit-risk assessment methodologies and visual representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughes, Diana; Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment. METHODS: Eight case studies based on the benefit......-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. RESULTS: A general pathway through the case studies...

  4. Current established risk assessment methodologies and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Hartel, Pieter H.; Pieters, Wolter; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2013-01-01

    The technology behind information systems evolves at an exponential rate, while at the same time becoming more and more ubiquitous. This brings with it an implicit rise in the average complexity of systems as well as the number of external interactions. In order to allow a proper assessment of the

  5. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  6. Development of risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, S. K.; Park, S. J.; Park, B. R.; Kim, M. R.; Choi, C. J.

    2001-01-01

    It has been assessed that the capital cost for future nuclear power plants needs to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors such as KNGR and System 80+. Such reduction in the capital cost will require a fundamental re-evaluation of the industry standards and regulatory basis under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. The objective of this study is to develop the risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology for future nuclear power plants. In order to meet this objective, the design simplification method is developed and RIA design methodology exercised for conceptual system. For the methodology verification, simplified conceptual ECCS and feedwater system are developed, then LOCA sensitivity analyses and agressive secondary cooldown analyses for these systems are performed. In addition, the probability safety assessment (PSA) model for LOCA is developed and the validation of RIA design methodology is demonstrated

  7. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  8. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  9. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  10. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  11. Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology Development and Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung Goo Chi; Seok Jeong Park; Chul Jin Choi; Ritterbusch, S.E.; Jacob, M.C.

    2002-01-01

    Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has been working with Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) on a US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project through a collaborative agreement established for the domestic NERI program. The project deals with Risk-Informed Assessment (RIA) of regulatory and design requirements of future nuclear power plants. An objective of the RIA project is to develop a risk-informed design process, which focuses on identifying and incorporating advanced features into future nuclear power plants (NPPs) that would meet risk goals in a cost-effective manner. The RIA design methodology is proposed to accomplish this objective. This paper discusses the development of this methodology and demonstrates its application in the design of plant systems for future NPPs. Advanced conceptual plant systems consisting of an advanced Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) and Emergency Feedwater System (EFWS) for a NPP were developed and the risk-informed design process was exercised to demonstrate the viability and feasibility of the RIA design methodology. Best estimate Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analyses were performed to validate the PSA success criteria for the NPP. The results of the analyses show that the PSA success criteria can be met using the advanced conceptual systems and that the RIA design methodology is a viable and appropriate means of designing key features of risk-significant NPP systems. (authors)

  12. Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

  13. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  14. Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment Methodology for Homeland Security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teagarden, Grant A.; Canavan, Kenneth T.; Nickell, Robert E.

    2006-01-01

    In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI was selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate a nuclear sector specific methodology for owner / operators to utilize in performing a Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) assessment for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The objective is to characterize SNF transportation risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. Worst reasonable case scenarios characterize risk for a benchmark set of threats and consequence types. A trial application was successfully performed and implementation is underway by one utility. (authors)

  15. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  16. A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Hyo-Nam; Choi, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Yoon-Bae

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as 'High/Low' and 'Good/Bad' have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as 'Close to any value' or 'Higher/Lower than analyzed value', are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects

  17. Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials

  18. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  19. Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo

    2011-01-01

    Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

  20. Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

    1991-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

  1. Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

    2008-01-01

    The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)

  2. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  3. Methodology for the assessment of human health risks associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies have shown that the aquatic environment can be polluted by contaminates that are accumulated by freshwater fish and this may pose a health risk to the ... bioaccumulation potential and health risks of analytes, sound sampling design, risk assessment procedures and performing monitoring at different scales and ...

  4. A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data input...

  5. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

  6. Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

    2017-03-01

    The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

  7. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  8. Geologic modeling in risk assessment methodology for radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    Under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the University of New Mexico is developing a computer based assessment methodology for evaluating public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of radioactive waste in geologic formations. Methodology incorporates a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. The release model and its application to a model repository in bedded salt is described. Fault trees are constructed to provide the relationships between various geologic and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material beyond the immediate environs of the repository. The environmental model includes: 1) the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, 2) pathways from these environmental concentrations, and 3) radiation dose to man. Finally, economic results are used to compare and assess various disposal configurations as a basis for formulatin

  9. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  10. Development of risk assessment methodology applicable to radioactive waste isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; McGrath, P.E.; Cullingford, M.C.

    1978-01-01

    The risk from radioactive waste disposal in a deep geologic formation has not yet been completely assessed. A complete assessment should include credible estimates of the likelihood that radioactive materials would escape the repository and enter the human environment, and the magnitude of the resultant consequences in terms of human health effects. In addition, such an assessment should identify the dominant contributors to risk and, to the extent possible, quantify the uncertainties in risk estimates. A complete risk assessment may not be possible because of our limited knowledge of various aspects of geology and hydrogeology important to the long-term safety of a radioactive waste repository. The results of past analyses are not entirely consistent, perhaps as a direct result of the limited knowledge of the phenomena involved. It may, therefore, seem premature to attempt a rigorous risk analysis of radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media at the present time. However, the value of such analyses lies more in the insight and information they provide than in their prediction of absolute levels of risk

  11. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

    2015-01-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  12. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  13. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  14. Application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology to fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S.J.

    1985-07-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools are applied to general fusion issues in a systematic way, generally qualitatively. The potential value of PRA to general fusion safety and economic issues is discussed. Several important design insights result: possible fault interactions must be minimized (decouple fault conditions), inherently safe designs must include provision for passively handling loss of site power and loss of coolant conditions, the reliability of the vacuum boundary appears vital to maximizing facility availabilty and minimizing safety risk, and economic analyses appear to be incomplete without consideration of potential availability loss from forced outrages. A modification to PRA formalism is introduced, called the fault interaction matrix. The fault interaction matrix contains information concerning what initial fault condition could lead to other fault conditions and with what frequency. Thus, the fault interaction matrix represents a way to present and measure the degree to which a designer has decoupled possible fault conditions in his design

  15. Methodology for assessment of safety risk due to potential accidents in US gaseous diffusion plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.H.; O'Kain, D.U.

    1991-01-01

    Gaseous diffusion plants that operate in the United States represent a unique combination of nuclear and chemical hazards. Assessing and controlling the health, safety, and environmental risks that can result from natural phenomena events, process upset conditions, and operator errors require a unique methodology. Such a methodology has been developed for the diffusion plants and is being utilized to assess and control the risk of operating the plants. A summary of the methodology developed to assess the unique safety risks at the US gaseous diffusion plants is presented in this paper

  16. Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

  17. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  18. A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

    2006-01-01

    A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

  19. Some concepts, terminology, and methodology for radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.; Barlow, R.E.

    1982-01-01

    The controversy concerning cancer risk estimates for human populations exposed to low doses of ionizing radiations is discussed. The authors note that while little can be done to obtain more and better data on human populations, the analysis of available data can be sharpened through the consistent use of appropriate statistical techniques. Some probabilistic concepts that will help to define ''dose-response curve'' are given

  20. Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

    2013-01-01

    A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

  1. Methodology for the Seismic risk assessment in segments of fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The present study establishes the most adequate methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Iberian Peninsula, in particular for low seismicity areas, through a review of methods used in other countries and its application to a certain area in Spain. In this area the geological context and recent activity of a specific tectonic structure is studied in detail, in order to asses its slip rate, and therefore, its capability of generating earthquakes. In the first stage of this project a review of Seismic Hazard Assessment methods used outside Spain was carried out, as well as, a study of several spanish cases. This stage also comprises a review of the spanish seismic record and a study of the general peninsular neotectonic context, this latter to select a particular fault for the next stage. (Author) 117 refs

  2. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  3. Methodology Development for Assessment of Spaceport Technology Returns and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joglekar, Prafulla; Zapata, Edgar

    2001-01-01

    As part of Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) challenge to open the space frontier, new spaceport technologies must be developed, matured and successfully transitioned to operational systems. R&D investment decisions can be considered from multiple perspectives. Near mid and far term technology horizons must be understood. Because a multitude of technology investment opportunities are available, we must identify choices that promise the greatest likelihood of significant lifecycle At the same time, the costs and risks of any choice must be well understood and balanced against its potential returns The problem is not one of simply rank- ordering projects in terms of their desirability. KSC wants to determine a portfolio of projects that simultaneously satisfies multiple goals, such as getting the biggest bang for the buck, supporting projects that may be too risky for private funding, staying within annual budget cycles without foregoing the requirements of a long term technology vision, and ensuring the development of a diversity of technologies that, support the variety of operational functions involved in space transportation. This work aims to assist in the development of in methods and techniques that support strategic technology investment decisions and ease the process of determining an optimal portfolio of spaceport R&D investments. Available literature on risks and returns to R&D is reviewed and most useful pieces are brought to the attention of the Spaceport Technology Development Office (STDO). KSC's current project management procedures are reviewed. It is found that the "one size fits all" nature of KSC's existing procedures and project selection criteria is not conducive to prudent decision-making. Directions for improving KSC's - procedures and criteria are outlined. With help of a contractor, STDO is currently developing a tool, named Change Management Analysis Tool (CMAT)/ Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT), to assist KSC's R&D portfolio determination. A

  4. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

  5. Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marzo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

  6. Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

  7. Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedetta Persechino

    2013-06-01

    Conclusion: This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  8. Risk assessment of cryogenic installations – implementation, applicability of methodologies and challenges at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    For the safe design of a cryogenic installation, it is essential to carry out a comprehensive hazard identification and risk estimate in order to put in place the necessary control measures for an adequate risk mitigation. According to CERN Safety Rules, it is mandatory that the organic unit owning a cryogenic facility conducts and documents a risk assessment. This requirement is also given by the European Directive 2014/68/EU to manufacturers of pressure equipment. During the talk, some of the challenges CERN faces in the development of risk assessments across the broad array of activities involving cryogenic equipment in the organization will be discussed. Challenges such as the choice of the best-suited risk assessment methodology based on the features and complexity of the installation/activities, the efforts to develop tools to facilitate hazard identification, risk analysis and definition of related measures to protect the health and safety of workers, such as streamlined guidelines, forms and check...

  9. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  10. Gas migration from closed coal mines to the surface. Risk assessment methodology and prevention means

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pokryszka, Z.; Tauziede, Ch.; Lagny, C.; Guise, Y.; Gobillot, R.; Planchenault, J.M.; Lagarde, R.

    2005-01-01

    French law as regards renunciation to mining concessions calls for the mining operator to first undertake analyses of the risks represented by their underground mining works. The problem of gas migration to the surface is especially significant in the context of coal mines. This is because mine gas can migrate to the earth's surface, then present significant risks: explosion, suffocation or gas poisoning risks. As part of the scheduled closure of all coal mining operations in France, INERIS has drawn up, at the request of national mining operator Charbonnages de France, a general methodology for assessing the risk linked to gas in the context of closed coal mines. This article presents the principles of this methodology. An application example based on a true case study is then described. This is completed by a presentation of the preventive and monitoring resources recommended and usually applied in order to manage the risk linked to gaseous emissions. (authors)

  11. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  12. Methodology and results of risk assessment of interconnections within the JET active gas handling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballantyne, P.R.; Bell, A.C.; Konstantellos, A.; Hemmerich, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    The Joint European Torus (JET) Active Gas Handling System (AGHS) is a complex interconnection of numerous subsystems. While individual subsystems were assessed for their risk of operation, an assessment of the effects of inadvertent interconnections was needed. A systematic method to document the assessment was devised to ease the assessment of complex plant and was applied to the AGHS. The methodology, application to AGHS, the four critical issues and required plant modifications as a result of this assessment are briefly discussed in this paper

  13. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

    2013-01-01

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10 −5 compared to 23.4 · 10 −5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights

  14. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup −5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup −5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support

  15. Application of FIVE methodology in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of fire events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Garcia, F.J.; Suarez Alonso, J.; Fiolamengual, M.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reflects the experience acquired during the process of evaluation and updating of the fire analysis within the Cofrentes NPP PRA. It determines which points are the least precise, either because of their greater uncertainty or because of their excessive conservatism, as well as the subtasks which have involved a larger work load and could be simplified. These aspects are compared with the steps followed in methodology FIVE (Fire Vulnerability Evaluation Methodology) to assess whether application of this methodology would optimize the task, by making it more systematic and realistic and reducing uncertainties. On the one hand, the FIVE methodology does not have the scope sufficient to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation, but it can easily be complemented -without detriment to its systematic nature- by quantifying core damage in significant areas. On the other hand, certain issues such as definition of the fire growth software program which has to be used, are still not fully closed. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from this assessment are satisfactory, since it is considered that this methodology would serve to unify the criteria and data of the analysis of fire-induced risks, providing a progressive screening method which would considerably simplify the task. (author)

  16. Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2013-06-01

    Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  17. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Construction schedule delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Mufazzal Hossen

    2015-04-01

    The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  19. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. U.S. Department of energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments

  1. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Risk Management; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Scofield, P.A. [Office of Environmental Compliance and Documentation (United States)

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  2. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  3. A Simplified Methodology For Risk Assessment of The Oolitic Limestone Aquifer, West of Alexandria Coastal Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadek, M.A.; Hussein, R.A.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater risk analysis helps to assess the effects of contaminants reach to specific position in groundwater system after introduction at some location above the uppermost aquifer. This provides a basis for initiating protective and mitigation measures for important groundwater resources. An attempt has been made in the present study to assess the risk of diffuse groundwater pollution at the north western coast of Alexandria against landfill waste disposal as well as agricultural pollutants leachates which are the main land use in the studied area. A simplified weighing/ rating approach have been functioned for this purpose, Slovene methodology, which is relevant for fissured carbonate aquifers that characterize the studied area. This method is based on an origin-pathway-target model, which applies for both resource and source protection. Conservative values for the intrinsic geological, hydrogeological, geo morphological and climatological parameters have been reviewed and determined for assessment of the source and resource vulnerability, hazards and risk (lithology, texture and structure of soil zone, lithology and thickness of the unsaturated zone and aquifer conditions, morphological features, slope and vegetation cover, average annual stormy days, travel time and karst network , the fertilizers and pesticide used for agriculture, the volume of unlined waste disposal site). The methodology applied in the present study emphasizes how the physical properties of the hydrological system can be integrated in an index that reflects the level of risk of a diffuse pollution to groundwater. This aligns with the prospective of site safety evaluation around risky installations such as a nuclear power plants or waste disposal facilities where assurance should be done that the risk to the public and environment is acceptably low. According to the functioned methodology, the fissured limestone under study is low vulnerable and highly protectable against surface diffuse

  4. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

  5. Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Johnathan

    2003-05-01

    This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

  6. Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Moshashaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

  7. Assessing Freshwater Ecosystem Service Risk over Ecological, Socioeconomic, and Cultural Gradients: Problem Space Characterization and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, T. C.; Villamizar, S. R.; Conde, D.; Rusak, J.; Reid, B.; Astorga, A.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; London, S.; Velez, M.; Hoyos, N.; Escobar, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide are under increasing anthropogenic pressure at local (e.g., irrigation diversions, wastewater discharge) and global scales (e.g., climate change, global trading). The impact depends on an ecosystem's sensitivity, which is determined by its geophysical and ecological settings, and the population and activities in its surrounding watershed. Given the importance of ecosystem services, it is critical that we improve our ability to identify and understand changes in aquatic ecosystems, and translate them to risk of service loss. Furthermore, to inspire changes in human behavior, it is equally critical that we learn to communicate risk, and pose risk mitigation strategies, in a manner acceptable to a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Quantifying the nature and timing of the risk is difficult because (1) we often fail to understand the connection between anthropogenic pressures and the timing and extent of ecosystem changes; and (2) the concept of risk is inherently coupled to human perception, which generally differs with cultural and socio-economic conditions. In this study, we endeavor to assess aquatic ecosystem risks across an international array of six study sites. The challenge is to construct a methodology capable of capturing the marked biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences among the sites, which include: (1) Muskoka River watershed in humid continental Ontario, Canada; (2) Lower San Joaquin River, an impounded snow-fed river in semi-arid Central California; (3) Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, a tropical coastal lagoon in Colombia; (4) Senguer River basin in the semi-arid part of Argentina; (5) Laguna de Rocha watershed in humid subtropical Uruguay; and (6) Palomas Lake complex in oceanic Chilean Patagonia. Results will include a characterization of the experimental gradient over the six sites, an overview of the risk assessment methodology, and preliminary findings for several of the sites.

  8. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  9. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  10. Probablistic risk assessment methodology application to Indian pressurised heavy water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babar, A.K.; Grover, R.B.; Mehra, V.K.; Gangwal, D.K.; Chakraborty, G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment in the context of nuclear power plants is associated with models that predict the offsite radiological releases resulting from reactor accidents. Level 1 PRA deals with the identification of accident sequences relevant to the design of a system and also with their quantitative estimation. It is characterised by event tree, fault tree analysis. The initiating events applicable to pressurised heavy water reactors have been considered and the dominating initiating events essential for detailed studies are identified in this paper. Reliability analysis and the associated problems encountered during the case studies are mentioned briefly. It is imperative to validate the failure data used for analysis. Bayesian technique has been employed for the same and a brief account is included herein. A few important observations, e.g. effects of the presence of moderator, made during the application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology are also discussed. (author)

  11. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-04-01

    This report presents information essential to understanding the risk associated with inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs). The methodology developed and presented in the report provides a state-of-the-art method for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware design, human performance issues, and accident consequence factors to relevant to the prediction of the ISLOCA risk. This ISLOCA methodology was developed and then applied to a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plants. The results from this application are described in detail. For this particular B ampersand W reference plant, the assessment indicated that the probability of a severe ISLOCA is approximately 2.2E-06/reactor-year. This document Volume 3 provides appendices A--H of the report. Topics are: Historical experience related to ISLOCA events; component failure rates; reference B ampersand W plant system descriptions; reference B ampersand W plant ISLOCA event trees; Human reliability analysis for the B ampersand W ISLOCA probabilistic risk assessment; thermal hydraulic calculations; bounding core uncovery time calculations; and system rupture probability

  12. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  13. Risk vs. Reward: A Methodology to Assess Investment in Marine Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Hutcheson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The majority of WEC (wave energy converter projects are expensive and pose a large risk to a developer. Currently no developers have been successful in commercialising a WEC. So far, many wave energy feasibility studies have only considered the LCOE (levelised cost of electricity, assessing investment in marine energy technologies from a purely financial point of view. No previous studies have, however, explicitly accounted for development risk as well as the LCOE to determine the feasibility of a project. This paper proposes a new methodology that can be used to account for both risk and the LCOE to give a clearer picture of the feasibility of a WEC development. By combining the LCOE and risk score for a particular development, the “value for risk” can be calculated, presented here as the “RR ratio” (“Risk/Reward ratio”. A number of case studies were chosen to test the model, investigating the RR ratio for a number of different WEC technologies and ranking them to suggest an optimal development path for the industry. Results showed that projects that combine many innovative technologies provide the best “value for risk”. These devices overall had the highest risk, suggesting that multiple developers are likely required to collaborate in order to reduce the risk down to acceptable levels for each.

  14. Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

    2015-05-15

    This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Standardization of natural phenomena risk assessment methodology at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, J.C.; Hsu, Y.S.

    1985-01-01

    Safety analyses at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) normally require consideration of the risks of incidents caused by natural events such as high-velocity straight winds, tornadic winds, and earthquakes. The probabilities for these events to occur at SRP had been studied independently by several investigators, but the results of their studies were never systematically evaluated. As part of the endeavor to standardize our environmental risk assessment methodology, these independent studies have been thoroughly reviewed and critiqued, and appropriate probability models for these natural events have been selected. The selected probability models for natural phenomena, high-velocity straight winds and tornadic winds in particular, are in agreement with those being used at other DOE sites, and have been adopted as a guide for all safety studies conducted for SRP operations and facilities. 7 references, 3 figures

  16. Methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudiz, A.; Brenot, J.; Cessac, B.; Charbonneau, P.; Maigne, J.P.; Santucci, P.

    2000-01-01

    At the request of the French ministries of health and environment, IPSN was asked to elaborate a methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides. This guide is devoted to local administration, technical organisms and more generally to all the relevant stakeholders involved with the choice of a rehabilitation strategy, according to the future use of the site. The methodology to be presented is designed to fit with the different types of 'risk governance', according to circumstances: - when an industrial site is relatively small, with rather restricted zones of contamination, and no specific social concern, management may rely essentially upon radiological expertise, using generic reference levels, - when the site is larger, with spread out contamination, risk assessment and management of the site may become more controversial, namely because uncertainties remain about the effective magnitude of the contamination and no low cost solution appears to exist in view of rehabilitation. In this case, an open procedure is required, which combines technical expertise and involvement of stakeholders, in view of improving the risk assessment process as well as trying to get a better understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of different rehabilitation strategies. The methodology consists of six main steps : - Initiating the process, Pre-diagnosis, Initial diagnosis, Simplified risk assessment, Detailed risk assessment, Decision aiding in view of letting the stakeholders defining the solution appropriate to the local context. The paper will present how the risk assessment and management process can be aportionated to the importance of the problem to be solved. As far as possible, simplified risk assessment should provide information allowing the definition of the appropriate strategy. In this case, stakeholders involvement is mainly devoted to determine: - whether the site can be affected to a given use without

  17. Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

    1990-01-01

    FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG ampersand G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort

  18. Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

  19. An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    One major environmental concern associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of short- and long-term quantitative risks to the environment resulting from release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. The paper describes a comprehensive model developed during 1976 for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model consisted of a release or fault-tree model, an environmental model and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of radioactive and non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short term to develop general environmental standards applicable to any radioactive waste management

  20. Comparison of risk assessment methodologies for nuclear power and nuclear fuels processing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durant, W.S.; Walker, D.H.

    1986-08-01

    The utilization of nuclear fission for the generation of electric power or other purposes has as its by-product radioactive fission products. These radioactive fission products represent a potential hazard different in nature from that associated with other process operations or other methods of electrical power generation. As a result the electrical power stations and the facilities designed to process the irradiated fuel to recover the still useful fuel and the products of the irradiation are designed with multiple physical barriers to contain the radioactive fission products in the event that an accident were to occur. In recent years, a disciplined approach has evolved for developing detailed models of a facility and its processes. These models can be used to assess the response for the facility to upset or accident events. The approach is based on an ordered application of available data employing fault tree/event tree methodologies. Data and/or engineering judgment are applied in a probabilisitc framework so the approach has been called Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The approach has been applied to nuclear electric generating facilities and to nuclear fuel processing facilities to assess the potential for release of fission product and transuranium element radionuclides (the hazard) and the resulting risks. The application of the methodology to the electrical generating facilities and to the fuel processing facilities has evolved somewhat differently because of differences in the facilities, availability of failure rate data, and expected outputs. This paper summarizes the two approaches and the differences in them compares the risk results from the existing studies

  1. An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Brebano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    One of the major environmental concerns associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the University of New Mexico has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of both the short-term as well as long-term quantitative risks on the environment resulting from the release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. This past year a comprehensive model has been developed for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model has consisted of a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological, and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of both radioactive as well as non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short-term to develop general environmental standards

  2. A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Escales, Paula; Canelles, Arnau; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Folch, Albert; Kurtzman, Daniel; Rossetto, Rudy; Fernández-Escalante, Enrique; Lobo-Ferreira, João-Paulo; Sapiano, Manuel; San-Sebastián, Jon; Schüth, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of fault trees and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

  3. Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.

  4. Comparison of the DOE and the EPA risk assessment methodologies and default parameters for the air exposure pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Z.; Eckart, R.

    1993-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) each publish radiological health effects risk assessment methodologies. Those methodologies are in the form of computer program models or extensive documentation. This research paper compares the significant differences between the DOE and EPA methodologies and default parameters for the important air exposure pathway. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the fundamental differences in methodology and parameter values between the DOE and the EPA. This study reviewed the parameter values and default values that are utilized in the air exposure pathway and revealed the significant differences in risk assessment results when default values are used in the analysis of an actual site. The study details the sources and the magnitude of the parameter departures between the DOE and the EPA methodologies and their impact on dose or risk

  5. Risk assessment methodology for extreme wind and missile effects on critical facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

    1985-01-01

    The TORMIS methodology has been applied to a number of probabilistic risk assessments of critical facilities in the continental United States. These analyses have centered on the estimation of tornado missile impact and damage risks to individual targets as well as to groups of targets at specific plants. A number of advancements and generalizations in the approach have recently been made. These include: (1) generalization of windfield options to include straight winds (WINMIS) and hurricanes (HURMIS); (2) generalization of the scoring to enable analysis of Boolean system expressions for damage probabilities on compound series and parallel safety trains; (3) generalization of the failure criteria to include wind pressure as well as missile impact; (4) generalization of the plant modeling capability to enable more detailed treatment of targets partially or fully enclosed by vulnerable cladding and to allow tracking of missiles inside such enclosures; and (5) incorporation of windspeed criteria for structural failure and subsequent production of potential missiles. This paper will present some of the basic theory and key results of recent TORMIS, WINMIS, and HURMIS applications. The influence of uncertainties in the estimation process and the data needed for plant-specific risk assessments will also be discussed

  6. Application of Bayesian network methodology to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2006-02-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If one takes various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering some stochastic passive systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, it is believed that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this study proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. In this study an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network developed and verified using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a Monte-Carlo model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters, were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, this study could connect the results of probabilistic

  7. Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

  8. Radiological risk assessment for the public under the loss of medium and large sources using bayesian methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Jang, Han Ki; Lee, Jai Ki

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian methodology is appropriated for use in PRA because subjective knowledges as well as objective data are applied to assessment. In this study, radiological risk based on Bayesian methodology is assessed for the loss of source in field radiography. The exposure scenario for the lost source presented in U.S. NRC is reconstructed by considering the domestic situation and Bayes theorem is applied to updating of failure probabilities of safety functions. In case of updating of failure probabilities, it shows that 5% Bayes credible intervals using Jeffreys prior distribution are lower than ones using vague prior distribution. It is noted that Jeffreys prior distribution is appropriated in risk assessment for systems having very low failure probabilities. And, it shows that the mean of the expected annual dose for the public based on Bayesian methodology is higher than the dose based on classical methodology because the means of the updated probabilities are higher than classical probabilities. The database for radiological risk assessment are sparse in domestic. It summarizes that Bayesian methodology can be applied as an useful alternative for risk assessment and the study on risk assessment will be contributed to risk-informed regulation in the field of radiation safety

  9. [Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

    2011-01-01

    Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

  11. Diablo Canyon internal events PRA [Probabilistic Risk Assessment] review: Methodology and findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bozoki, G.; Sabek, M.

    1990-01-01

    The review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCRPA) incorporated some new and innovative approaches. These were necessitated by the unprecedented size, scope and level of detail of the DCRPA, which was submitted to the NRC for licensing purposes. This paper outlines the elements of the internal events portion of the review citing selected findings to illustrate the various approaches employed. The paper also provides a description of the extensive and comprehensive importance analysis applied by BNL to the DCRPA model. Importance calculations included: top event/function level; individual split fractions; pair importances between frontline-support and support-support systems; system importance by initiator; and others. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the effectiveness of the applied methodology. 3 refs., 5 tabs

  12. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2014-07-01

    In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

  13. The Department of Homeland Security's Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution, Issues, and Options for Congress

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Masse, Todd; O'Neil, Siobhan; Rollins, John

    2007-01-01

    .... Secretary Chertoff has stated "DHS must base its work on priorities driven by risk" and, increasingly, risk assessment and subsequent risk mitigation have influenced all of the department's efforts...

  14. Methodology of using CFD-based risk assessment in road tunnels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidmar Peter

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The definition of the deterministic approach in the safety analyses comes from the need to understand the conditions that come out during the fire accident in a road tunnel. The key factor of the tunnel operations during the fire is the ventilation, which during the initial fazes of the fire, impact strongly on the evacuation of people and latter on the access of the intervention units in the tunnel. The paper presents the use of the computational fluid dynamics model in the tunnel safety assessment process. The model is validated by comparing data with experimental and quantifying the differences. The set-up of the initial and boundary conditions and the requirement for grid density found during the validation tests is used to prepare three kind of fire scenarios 20 MW, 50 MW, and 100 MW, with different ventilation conditions; natural, semi transverse, full transverse, and longitudinal ventilation. The observed variables, soot density and temperature, are presented in minutes time steps trough the entire tunnel length. Comparing the obtained data in a table, allows the analyses of the ventilation conditions for different heat releases from fires. The second step is to add additional criteria of human behaviour inside the tunnel (evacuation and human resistance to the elevated gas concentrations and temperature. What comes out is a fully deterministic risk matrix that is based on the calculated data where the risk is ranged on five levels, from the lowest to a very danger level. The deterministic risk matrix represents the alternative to a probabilistic safety assessment methodology, where the fire risk is represented in detail as well as the computational fluid dynamics model results are physically correct. .

  15. Assessment of hydrogen risk using advanced methodology for lumped parameter code-MELCOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duspiva, Jiri; Kujal, Bohumir

    2007-01-01

    The hydrogen risk is one of the most important containment integrity challenge during a severe accident progression at the VVER type reactors installed at the Czech NPPs. On the basis of recent comprehensive research results the general flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) criteria were formulated. The main objective of the new methodology developed in the NRI Rez was to prepare an analytical tool for the assessment of the hydrogen risk at the Czech NPPs in the course of a severe accident and also for the design of hydrogen removal system which should be able to prevent or at least minimize the threats of hydrogen detonation in containments. The major idea on which the development of models for the FA and DDT criteria was based is described in OECD state-of-art report (NEA, 2000). The module for the computation of FA criterion (often named σ-criterion) and DDT one (also named λ or Dorofeev criterion) was linked to the MELCOR 1.8.5 model of VVER-1000 containment. The most important feature of new model is that it makes possible to evaluate the both of the criteria for all compartments in the containment continuously during severe accident scenario progression. The containment model, which could be used for such a calculation, has to be very detailed owing to appropriate description of hydrogen distribution. New model was tested by calculation of hydrogen detonation risk in the VVER-1000 containment during severe accident scenario initiated by medium break LOCA. At present two more VVER-1000 severe accident scenarios have been analyzed. The mapping of a hydrogen detonation risk in individual compartments inside containment was performed. The results of analysis confirm that the risk of hydrogen detonation in the great majority of containment compartments during severe accidents is very high if the hydrogen removal system is not installed. (author)

  16. Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamano, Hidemasa, E-mail: yamano.hidemasa@jaea.go.jp; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

  17. Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

  18. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  19. Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

    1987-06-01

    A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

  20. Research on Methodology to Prioritize Critical Digital Assets based on Nuclear Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Wonjik; Kwon, Kookheui; Kim, Hyundoo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Digital systems are used in nuclear facilities to monitor and control various types of field devices, as well as to obtain and store vital information. Therefore, it is getting important for nuclear facilities to protect digital systems from cyber-attack in terms of safety operation and public health since cyber compromise of these systems could lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. Based on KINAC/RS-015 which is a cyber security regulatory standard, regulatory activities for cyber security at nuclear facilities generally focus on critical digital assets (CDAs) which are safety, security, and emergency preparedness related digital assets. Critical digital assets are estimated over 60% among all digital assets in a nuclear power plant. Therefore, it was required to prioritize critical digital assets to improve efficiency of regulation and implementation. In this paper, the research status on methodology development to prioritize critical digital assets based on nuclear risk assessment will be introduced. In this paper, to derive digital asset directly affect accident, PRA results (ET, FT, and minimal cut set) are analyzed. According to result of analysis, digital systems related to CD are derived ESF-CCS (safety-related component control system) and Process-CCS (non-safety-related component control system) as well as Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). These digital assets can be identified Vital Digital Asset (VDA). Hereafter, to develop general methodology which was identified VDA related to accident among CDAs, (1) method using result of minimal cut set in PRA model will be studied and (2) method quantifying result of Digital I and C PRA which is performed to reflect all digital cabinet related to system in FT will be studied.

  1. Research on Methodology to Prioritize Critical Digital Assets based on Nuclear Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Wonjik; Kwon, Kookheui; Kim, Hyundoo

    2016-01-01

    Digital systems are used in nuclear facilities to monitor and control various types of field devices, as well as to obtain and store vital information. Therefore, it is getting important for nuclear facilities to protect digital systems from cyber-attack in terms of safety operation and public health since cyber compromise of these systems could lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. Based on KINAC/RS-015 which is a cyber security regulatory standard, regulatory activities for cyber security at nuclear facilities generally focus on critical digital assets (CDAs) which are safety, security, and emergency preparedness related digital assets. Critical digital assets are estimated over 60% among all digital assets in a nuclear power plant. Therefore, it was required to prioritize critical digital assets to improve efficiency of regulation and implementation. In this paper, the research status on methodology development to prioritize critical digital assets based on nuclear risk assessment will be introduced. In this paper, to derive digital asset directly affect accident, PRA results (ET, FT, and minimal cut set) are analyzed. According to result of analysis, digital systems related to CD are derived ESF-CCS (safety-related component control system) and Process-CCS (non-safety-related component control system) as well as Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). These digital assets can be identified Vital Digital Asset (VDA). Hereafter, to develop general methodology which was identified VDA related to accident among CDAs, (1) method using result of minimal cut set in PRA model will be studied and (2) method quantifying result of Digital I and C PRA which is performed to reflect all digital cabinet related to system in FT will be studied

  2. Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

    2018-06-01

    Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  3. Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

    2011-01-01

    In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

  4. Risk-assessment methodology development for waste isolation in geologic media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, C.A.; Fullwood, R.R.; Amirijafari, B.; Basin, S.L.; Cohen, J.

    1982-12-01

    A review of three documents prepared for the USNRC by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is presented. These are NUREG/CR-1634, Volume 4 concerned with the effects of variable hydrology on waste migration; NUREG/CR-2324, a user's manual for SWIFT; and NUREG/2343, a user's manual for DNET. This review completes Task 4 of the detailed technical review of the SNL program for Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Waste Isolation in Geologic Media. In general, these reports exhibit high technical quality that characterizes the SNL work. They are tersely written with little condescension to the non-expert reader for understanding the physical situation being modeled. Indeed, the emphasis is on the mathematical procedures rather than the repository physics, leaving the adequacy of the results presented in many computer plots, pretty much to the interpretation of the reader. Other general comments have been presented previously, such as the data conservatisms, need for data that cannot be measured without disturbing the geometry, and the overall plan for use of the many codes developed in the program

  5. Human error risk management for engineering systems: a methodology for design, safety assessment, accident investigation and training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacciabue, P.C.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to tackle methodological issues associated with the inclusion of cognitive and dynamic considerations into Human Reliability methods. A methodology called Human Error Risk Management for Engineering Systems is presented that offers a 'roadmap' for selecting and consistently applying Human Factors approaches in different areas of application and contains also a 'body' of possible methods and techniques of its own. Two types of possible application are discussed to demonstrate practical applications of the methodology. Specific attention is dedicated to the issue of data collection and definition from specific field assessment

  6. Methodology in use for the assessment of carcinogenic risk. II. Radiation. Oncology overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    Oncology Overviews are a service of the International Cancer Research Data Bank (ICRDB) Program of the National Cancer Institute, intended to facilitate and promote the exchange of information between cancer scientists by keeping them aware of literature related to their research being published by other laboratories throughout the world. Each Oncology Overview represents a survey of the literature associated with a selected area of cancer research. It contains abstracts of articles which have been selected and organized by researchers associated with the field. Contents: Assessment of carcinogenic risk from environmental and occupational exposures to ionizing radiation; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation used for medical diagnosis or treatment; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation following nuclear bomb explosions; Comparison of risk from radiation sources with risk from nonradiation sources; Experimental studies to assess risk of carcinogenesis following exposure to ionizing radiation; Theoretical aspects of dose-response relationships in the assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; Public policy and standards for acceptable risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; General reviews on the assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiation

  7. Hydrogen safety risk assessment methodology applied to a fluidized bed membrane reactor for autothermal reforming of natural gas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Psara, N.; Van Sint Annaland, M.; Gallucci, F.

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this paper is the development and implementation of a safety risk assessment methodology to highlight hazards potentially prevailing during autothermal reforming of natural gas for hydrogen production in a membrane reactor, as well as to reveal potential accidents related to hydrogen

  8. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

  9. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis

  10. Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana Valentina Tihulca

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental risk assessment (ERA is mandatory for all new applications for centralized marketing authorization or national regardless of their legal basis. ERA aims to protect the environment. Risk assessment has two phases of veterinary product evaluation possible role of exposure and its effects. Phase I of the ERA isbased on filling a decision tree with 19 questions. If the answers to these questions do not stop the assessment at this stage then is advancing to Phase II. It uses a two stage approach stage A and stage B. The first stage, stage A, studies using simple, less expensive studies. I f the assessment is not complete, then is appealed to Step B to drill ERA. If there is still a risk indicator after filling and assessment in stage B, then, to mitigate risk, is recommended the file discussing and of the proposals for additional data.

  11. A study on methodologies for assessing safety critical network's risk impact on Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, T. J.; Lee, H. J.; Park, S. K.; Seo, S. J.

    2006-08-01

    The objectives of this project is to investigate and study existing reliability analysis techniques for communication networks in order to develop reliability analysis models for Nuclear Power Plant's safety-critical networks. It is necessary to make a comprehensive survey of current methodologies for communication network reliability. Major outputs of the first year study are design characteristics of safety-critical communication networks, efficient algorithms for quantifying reliability of communication networks, and preliminary models for assessing reliability of safety-critical communication networks

  12. Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors: project overview and strong Wind PRA methodology - 15031

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamano, H.; Nishino, H.; Kurisaka, K.; Okano, Y.; Sakai, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Ishizuka, Y.; Geshi, N.; Furukawa, R.; Nanayama, F.; Takata, T.; Azuma, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes mainly strong wind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In this project, to date, the PRA methodologies against snow, tornado and strong wind were developed as well as the hazard evaluation methodologies. For the volcanic eruption hazard, ash fallout simulation was carried out to contribute to the development of the hazard evaluation methodology. For the forest fire hazard, the concept of the hazard evaluation methodology was developed based on fire simulation. Event sequence assessment methodology was also developed based on plant dynamics analysis coupled with continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to apply to the event sequence against snow. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or out-take in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6*10 -9 /year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system. (authors)

  13. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  14. Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

    2006-09-01

    Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

  15. Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Borst

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM – Risk Map Germany – Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

  16. A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvi, Olivier; Debray, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    The ARAMIS methodology was developed in an European project co-funded in the fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission with the objective to answer the specific requirements of the SEVESO II directive. It offers an alternative to purely deterministic and probabilistic approaches to risk assessment of process plants. It also answers the needs of the various stakeholders interested by the results of the risk assessment for land use or emergency planning, enforcement or, more generally, public decision-making. The methodology is divided into the following major steps: identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), identification of the safety barriers and assessment of their performances, evaluation of safety management efficiency to barrier reliability, identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS), assessment and mapping of the risk severity of reference scenarios and of the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. The methodology was tested during five case studies, which provided useful information about the applicability of the method and, by identifying the most sensitive parts of it opened way to new research activity for an improved industrial safety

  17. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  18. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs

  19. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  20. NUSAM Methodology for Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, Janice [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Snell, Mark K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This document provides a methodology for the performance-based assessment of security systems designed for the protection of nuclear and radiological materials and the processes that produce and/or involve them. It is intended for use with both relatively simple installations and with highly regulated complex sites with demanding security requirements.

  1. Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.G. Vygovska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

  2. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A RISK BASED METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN TRADITIONALLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Herrera

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the CO2 reduction targets set by the Scottish government, it will be necessary to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings. Within the total Scottish building stock, historic and traditionally constructed buildings are an important proportion, in the order of 19 % (Curtis, 2010, and represent cultural, emotional and identity values that should be protected. However, retrofit interventions could be a complex operation because of the several aspects that are involved in the hygrothermal performance of traditional buildings. Moreover, all these factors interact with each other and therefore need to be analysed as a whole. Upgrading the envelope of traditional buildings may produce severe changes to the moisture migration leading to superficial or interstitial condensation and thus fabric decay and mould growth. Retrofit projects carried out in the past have failed because of the misunderstanding, or the lack of expert prediction, of the potential consequences associated to the envelope's alteration. The evaluation of potential risks, prior to any alteration on building's physics in order to improve its energy efficiency, is critical to avoid future damage on the wall's performance or occupants' health and well being. The aim of this PhD research project is to point out the most critical aspects related to the energy efficiency improvement of traditional buildings and to develop a risk based methodology that helps owners and practitioners during the decision making process.

  4. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  5. Methodology for Collision Risk Assessment of an Airspace Flow Corridor Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yimin

    This dissertation presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. The flow corridor is a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace. The flow corridor has the potential to increase throughput by reducing the controller workload required to manage aircraft outside the corridor and by reducing separation of aircraft within corridor. The analysis in this dissertation is a starting point for the safety analysis required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to eventually approve and implement the corridor concept. This dissertation develops a hybrid risk analysis methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic event tree analysis. The analysis captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft in the flow corridor and to identify precursor events that might lead to a collision. Since these precursor events are not rare, standard Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate these occurrence rates. Dynamic event trees are then used to model the subsequent series of events that may lead to collision. When two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision (NMAC), the on-board automated separation assurance system provides a series of safety layers to prevent the impending NNAC or collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the potential failures of these layers in order to estimate the rare-event collision probabilities. The results show that the throughput can be increased by reducing separation to 2 nautical miles while maintaining the current level of safety. A sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical parameters in the model related to the overall

  6. Poverty Risk Index as A New Methodology for Social Inequality Distribution Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swiader, Małgorzata; Szewrański, Szymon; Kazak, Jan

    2017-10-01

    The paper presents new concept of poverty risk index measurement due to dynamics of urban development among years. The rapid urbanization could seriously surpass the capacity of the most cities, which may lead to insufficient services of their inhabitants. Consequence of this situation could be polarized, social differentiated cities with high rates of urban poverty. The measurement and analysis of urban poverty phenomenon requires the dedicated tools and techniques. The data based assessment could allow planners and public policy makers to develop more socially integrated cities. This paper presents analysis of urban poverty phenomenon in Wrocław city (Poland) during period 2010-2012. This analysis was conducted for ten Social Assistance Terrain Units (SATU) delineated at the city area. Our primary study objective concerns the proposal and calculation of poverty risk index based on diagnostic features, which represent the most common causes of social benefits granting, as: number of single households granted permanent benefits, number of people in families granted permanent benefits, number of people in families granted temporary benefits due to unemployment, number of people in families granted temporary benefits due to disability, number of people in families granted meals for children. The calculation was conducted by using the theory of development pattern - Hellwig’s economic development measure. The analysis of poverty risk index showed that commonly the central and south-eastern part of the city is characterized by the highest poverty risk index. The obtained results of the inequalities spatial distribution relate to European and American patterns of poverty concentration in urban structures.

  7. Geotechnical site assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tunbridge, L.W.; Richards, L.R.

    1985-09-01

    The reports comprising this volume concern the research conducted on geotechnical site assessment methodology at the Carwynnen test mine in granites in Cornwall, with particular reference to the effect of structures imposed by discontinuities on the engineering behaviour of rock masses. The topics covered are: in-situ stress measurements using (a) the hydraulic fracturing method, or (b) the US Bureau of Mines deformation probe; scanline discontinuity survey - coding form and instructions, and data; applicability of geostatistical estimation methods to scalar rock properties; comments on in-situ stress at the Carwynnen test mine and the state of stress in the British Isles. (U.K.)

  8. Comparison of methodologies for assessing the risks from nuclear weapons and from nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.

    1996-01-01

    There are important differences between the safety principles for nuclear weapons and for nuclear reactors. For example, a principal concern for nuclear weapons is to prevent electrical energy from reaching the nuclear package during accidents produced by crashes, fires, and other hazards, whereas the foremost concern for nuclear reactors is to maintain coolant around the core in the event of certain system failures. Not surprisingly, new methods have had to be developed to assess the risk from nuclear weapons. These include fault tree transformations that accommodate time dependencies, thermal and structural analysis techniques that are fast and unconditionally stable, and parameter sampling methods that incorporate intelligent searching. This paper provides an overview of the new methods for nuclear weapons and compares them with existing methods for nuclear reactors. It also presents a new intelligent searching process for identifying potential nuclear detonation vulnerabilities. The new searching technique runs very rapidly on a workstation and shows promise for providing an accurate assessment of potential vulnerabilities with far fewer physical response calculations than would be required using a standard Monte Carlo sampling procedure

  9. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  10. Bridging Two Worlds: Reconciling Practical Risk Assessment Methodologies with Theory of Attack Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga; Harpes, Carlo; Mauw, Sjouke; Muller, Cedric; Muller, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Security risk treatment often requires a complex cost-benefit analysis to be carried out in order to select countermeasures that optimally reduce risks while having minimal costs. According to ISO/IEC 27001, risk treatment relies on catalogues of countermeasures, and the analysts are expected to

  11. A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siirila, Erica R.; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2012-01-01

    We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: ► A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. ► TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. ► Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show sensitivity in TDRA results. ► In the TDRA results, individual susceptibility

  12. Component fragility analysis methodology for seismic risk assessment projects. Proven PSA safety document processing and assessment procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolar, Ladislav

    2013-03-01

    The seismic risk task assessment task should be structured as follows: (i) Define all reactor unit building structures, components and equipment involved in the creation of an initiating event (IE) induced by an seismic event or contributing to the reliability of reactor unit response to an IE; (ii) construct and estimate of the fragility curves for the building and component groups sub (i); (iii) determine the HCLPF for each group of buildings, components or equipment; (iv) determine the nuclear source's seismic resistance (SME) as the minimum HCLPF from the group of equipment in the risk-dominant scenarios; (v) define the risk-limiting group of components, equipment and building structures to the SME value; (vi) based on the fragility levels, identify component groups for which a more detailed fragility analysis is needed; and (vii) recommend groups of equipment or building structures that should be taken into account with respect to the seismic risk, i.e. such groups of equipment or building structures as exhibit a low seismic resistance (HCLPF) and, at the same time, are involved to a significant extent in the reactor unit's seismic risk (are present in the dominant risk scenarios). (P.A.)

  13. Geotechnical site assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tunbridge, L.W.; Richards, L.R.

    1985-09-01

    A final report summarizing the research conducted on geotechnical site assessment methodology at the Carwynnen test mine in Cornwall. The geological setting of the test site in the Cornubian granite batholith is described. The effect of structure imposed by discontinuities on the engineering behaviour of rock masses is discussed and the scanline survey method of obtaining data on discontinuities in the rock mass is described. The applicability of some methods of statistical analysis for discontinuity data is reviewed. The requirement for remote geophysical methods of characterizing the mass is discussed and experiments using seismic and ultrasonic velocity measurements are reported. Methods of determining the in-situ stresses are described and the final results of a programme of in-situ stress measurements using the overcoring and hydrofracture methods are reported. (author)

  14. Human health risk assessment methodology for the UMTRA Ground Water Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-11-01

    This document presents the method used to evaluate human risks associated with ground water contamination at inactive uranium processing sites. The intent of these evaluations is to provide the public and remedial action decision-makers with information about the health risks that might be expected at each site in a manner that is easily understood. The method (1) develops probabilistic distributions for exposure variables where sufficient data exist, (2) simulates predicted exposure distributions using Monte Carlo techniques, and (3) develops toxicity ranges that reflect human data when available, animal data if human data are insufficient, regulatory levels, and uncertainties. Risk interpretation is based on comparison of the potential exposure distributions with the derived toxicity ranges. Graphic presentations are an essential element of the semiquantitative interpretation and are expected to increase understanding by the public and decision-makers

  15. Hybrid methodology for risk assessment due to uranium in drinking water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandey, M.; Kumar, Brij; Datta, D.

    2015-01-01

    Uranium is found in ground and surface waters due to its natural occurrence in geological formations. One microgram (μg) of natural uranium has an activity of 0.67 pCi. The average uranium concentrations in surface, ground, and domestic water are 1, 3, and 2 pCi/l respectively. The uranium intake from water is about equal to the total from other dietary components. Although radioactivity of natural uranium is low, and is not likely to cause cancer, yet chances of cancer resulting from an exposure to a radioactive material like uranium cannot be completely ruled out. Numerous studies have reported Sarcomas (disease) in rats injected with metallic uranium in the femoral marrow and in the chest wall. This paper proposes a hybrid method for combining probability and possibility distributions in the estimation of cancer induction risk. The method is first explained, and then applied to estimate the human cancer risk due to Uranium in drinking water (taken from 15 villages of Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh). The hybrid method is a simple answer, from an intuitive viewpoint, to the problem of combining variability and partial ignorance in the estimation of risk. It simply combines random Monte Carlo sampling with fuzzy calculus. For the proposition 'Probability that Excess risk is lower than 3 x 10 -6 per year', the study obtained a probability comprised between 0.945 (Belief value) and 1 (Plausibility value). The proposed risk level i.e. 3 x 10 -6 per year is considered negligible by major toxicological agencies in the field such as EPA, WHO etc. The belief of 94.5 is the minimum credible probability level for the above proposition and suggests that the risk level is definitely minimal. (author)

  16. Screening radon risks: A methodology for policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisinger, D.S.; Simmons, R.A.; Lammering, M.; Sotiros, R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper provides an easy-to-use screening methodology to estimate potential excess lifetime lung cancer risk resulting from indoor radon exposure. The methodology was developed under U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation sponsorship of the agency's Integrated Environmental Management Projects (IEMP) and State/Regional Comparative Risk Projects. These projects help policymakers understand and use scientific data to develop environmental problem-solving strategies. This research presents the risk assessment methodology, discusses its basis, and identifies appropriate applications. The paper also identifies assumptions built into the methodology and qualitatively addresses methodological uncertainties, the direction in which these uncertainties could bias analyses, and their relative importance. The methodology draws from several sources, including risk assessment formulations developed by the U.S. EPA's Office of Radiation Programs, the EPA's Integrated Environmental Management Project (Denver), the International Commission on Radiological Protection, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. When constructed as a spreadsheet program, the methodology easily facilitates analyses and sensitivity studies (the paper includes several sensitivity study options). The methodology will be most helpful to those who need to make decisions concerning radon testing, public education, and exposure prevention and mitigation programs.26 references

  17. The probabilistic approach in the licensing process and the development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togo, Y.; Sato, K.

    1981-01-01

    The probabilistic approach has long seemed to be one of the most comprehensive methods for evaluating the safety of nuclear plants. So far, most of the guidelines and criteria for licensing are based on the deterministic concept. However, there have been a few examples to which the probabilistic approach was directly applied, such as the evaluation of aircraft crashes and turbine missiles. One may find other examples of such applications. However, a much more important role is now to be played by this concept, in implementing the 52 recommendations from the lessons learned from the TMI accident. To develop the probabilistic risk assessment methodology most relevant to Japanese situations, a five-year programme plan has been adopted and is to be conducted by the Japan Atomic Research Institute from fiscal 1980. Various problems have been identified and are to be solved through this programme plan. The current status of developments is described together with activities outside the government programme. (author)

  18. Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewes, Candida F; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Barsugli, Joseph J; Hobbins, Michael T; Kumar, Sanjiv

    2017-01-01

    Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models' expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified

  19. A Science and Risk-Based Pragmatic Methodology for Blend and Content Uniformity Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayeed-Desta, Naheed; Pazhayattil, Ajay Babu; Collins, Jordan; Doshi, Chetan

    2018-04-01

    This paper describes a pragmatic approach that can be applied in assessing powder blend and unit dosage uniformity of solid dose products at Process Design, Process Performance Qualification, and Continued/Ongoing Process Verification stages of the Process Validation lifecycle. The statistically based sampling, testing, and assessment plan was developed due to the withdrawal of the FDA draft guidance for industry "Powder Blends and Finished Dosage Units-Stratified In-Process Dosage Unit Sampling and Assessment." This paper compares the proposed Grouped Area Variance Estimate (GAVE) method with an alternate approach outlining the practicality and statistical rationalization using traditional sampling and analytical methods. The approach is designed to fit solid dose processes assuring high statistical confidence in both powder blend uniformity and dosage unit uniformity during all three stages of the lifecycle complying with ASTM standards as recommended by the US FDA.

  20. Accident risk-based life cycle assessment methodology for green and safe fuel selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khakzad, Sina; Khan, Faisal; Abbassi, Rouzbeh; Khakzad Rostami, N.

    2017-01-01

    Using the emissions produced during the entire life-cycle of a fuel or a product, Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is an effective technique widely used to estimate environmental impacts. However, most of the conventional LCA methods consider the impacts of voluntary releases such as discharged toxic

  1. Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

  2. Evolution of aging assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCrea, L.; Dam, R.; Gold, R.

    2011-01-01

    Under the influence of organizations like the IAEA and INPO the expectations of the regulator and plant operators alike are driving the evolution of aging assessment methodologies. The key result is that these assessments need to be executed more efficiently while supporting risk informed thinking within a living process. Some recent trends impacting aging assessments include new standards from the regulator requiring more frequent updates of aging assessments (RD-334), and broader component coverage driven by equipment reliability program demands (INPO AP-913). These trends point to the need to be able to do aging assessment more efficiently, and to manage the configuration. Some of the challenges include increasing efficiency while maintaining completeness and minimizing error, employing a systematic, well defined approach while maintaining the flexibility to apply the right level of effort to achieve desired results, and in particular, assuring that Aging Related Degradation Mechanisms (ARDMs) are sufficiently addressed. Meeting these needs creates a natural synergy with the Preventive Maintenance living program and therefore lends itself to a more integrated approach. To support this program, the SYSTMSTM software has been enhanced to accommodate for the various facets of an integrated program while meeting the needs described above. The systematic processes in SYSTMS are built with the vision of supporting risk-informed decision making as part of a larger risk-based functional tools suite. This paper intends to show how the utilities can benefit from the cost savings associated with increased assessment efficiency, and utilizing Candu Energy Inc.'s CANDU-specific knowledge-base and experience in aging assessment to get it right the first time. (author)

  3. Evolution of aging assessment methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCrea, L.; Dam, R.; Gold, R. [Candu Energy Inc., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    Under the influence of organizations like the IAEA and INPO the expectations of the regulator and plant operators alike are driving the evolution of aging assessment methodologies. The key result is that these assessments need to be executed more efficiently while supporting risk informed thinking within a living process. Some recent trends impacting aging assessments include new standards from the regulator requiring more frequent updates of aging assessments (RD-334), and broader component coverage driven by equipment reliability program demands (INPO AP-913). These trends point to the need to be able to do aging assessment more efficiently, and to manage the configuration. Some of the challenges include increasing efficiency while maintaining completeness and minimizing error, employing a systematic, well defined approach while maintaining the flexibility to apply the right level of effort to achieve desired results, and in particular, assuring that Aging Related Degradation Mechanisms (ARDMs) are sufficiently addressed. Meeting these needs creates a natural synergy with the Preventive Maintenance living program and therefore lends itself to a more integrated approach. To support this program, the SYSTMSTM software has been enhanced to accommodate for the various facets of an integrated program while meeting the needs described above. The systematic processes in SYSTMS are built with the vision of supporting risk-informed decision making as part of a larger risk-based functional tools suite. This paper intends to show how the utilities can benefit from the cost savings associated with increased assessment efficiency, and utilizing Candu Energy Inc.'s CANDU-specific knowledge-base and experience in aging assessment to get it right the first time. (author)

  4. Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site. V.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

    1987-06-01

    A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

  5. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  6. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  7. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  8. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  9. A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siirila, Erica R., E-mail: esiirila@mymail.mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Maxwell, Reed M., E-mail: rmaxwell@mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

    2012-08-01

    We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show

  10. Risk assessment and ranking methodologies for hazardous chemical defense waste: a state-of-the-art review and evaluation. Task 1 report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, M.S.Y.; Rodricks, J.V.; St Hilaire, C.; Bras, R.L.

    1986-06-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under Task 1 of the Risk Assessment Evaluation Task under the Hazardous Chemical Defense Waste Management Program of the Department of Energy (DOE). The objective of Task 1 was to identify, review, and evaluate the state-of-the-art tools and techniques available for ranking and evaluating disposal facilities. These tools were evaluated for their applicability to DOE's mixed hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites. Various ranking methodologies were reviewed and three were evaluated in detail. Areas that were found to be deficient in each ranking methodology were presented in the report. Recommendations were given for the development of an improved ranking methodology for use on DOE's sites. A literature review was then performed on the various components of a risk assessment methodology. They include source term evaluation, geosphere transport models, exposure pathways models, dose effects models, and sensitivity/uncertainty techniques. A number of recommendations have been made in the report based on the review and evaluation for the development of a comprehensive risk assessment methodology in evaluating mixed waste disposal sites

  11. Energy performance assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Platzer, W.J. [Fraunhofer Inst. for Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg (Germany)

    2006-01-15

    The energy performance of buildings are intimately connected to the energy performance of building envelopes. The better we understand the relation between the quality of the envelope and the energy consumption of the building, the better we can improve both. We have to consider not only heating but all service energies related to the human comfort in the building, such as cooling, ventilation, lighting as well. The complexity coming from this embracing approach is not to be underestimated. It is less and less possible to realted simple characteristic performance indicators of building envelopes (such as the U-value) to the overall energy performance. On the one hand much more paramters (e.g. light transmittance) come into the picture we have to assess the product quality in a multidimensional world. Secondly buildings more and more have to work on a narrow optimum: For an old, badly insulated building all solar gains are useful for a high-performance building with very good insulation and heat recovery systems in the ventilation overheating becomes more likely. Thus we have to control the solar gains, and sometimes we need high gains, sometimes low ones. And thirdly we see that the technology within the building and the user patterns and interactions as well influence the performance of a building envelope. The aim of this project within IEA Task27 was to improve our knowledge on the complex situation and also to give a principal approach how to assess the performance of the building envelope. The participants have contributed to this aim not pretending that we have reached the end. (au)

  12. Ecological risk assessment of mixtures of radiological and chemical stressors: Methodology to implement an msPAF approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaumelle, Léa; Della Vedova, Claire; Beaugelin-Seiller, Karine; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline; Gilbin, Rodolphe

    2017-01-01

    A main challenge in ecological risk assessment is to account for the impact of multiple stressors. Nuclear facilities can release both radiological and chemical stressors in the environment. This study is the first to apply species sensitivity distribution (SSD) combined with mixture models (concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA)) to derive an integrated proxy of the ecological impact of combined radiological and chemical stressors: msPAF (multisubstance potentially affected fraction of species). The approach was tested on the routine liquid effluents from nuclear power plants that contain both radioactive and stable chemicals. The SSD of ionising radiation was significantly flatter than the SSD of 8 stable chemicals (namely Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, B, chlorides and sulphates). This difference in shape had strong implications for the selection of the appropriate mixture model: contrarily to the general expectations the IA model gave more conservative (higher msPAF) results than the CA model. The msPAF approach was further used to rank the relative potential impact of radiological versus chemical stressors. - Highlights: • msPAF methodology was applied on mixtures of radiological and chemical stressors. • A consistent set of chronic SSDs was collected for ionising radiation and 8 stable chemicals. • The SSD of ionising radiation had lower steepness than the SSD of stable chemicals. • This resulted in higher msPAF values based on the IA than on the CA mixture model. - The msPAF approach combining SSD and mixture models was used for the first time on mixtures of radiological and chemical stressors.

  13. Does Metformin Reduce Cancer Risks? Methodologic Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golozar, Asieh; Liu, Shuiqing; Lin, Joeseph A; Peairs, Kimberly; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh

    2016-01-01

    The substantial burden of cancer and diabetes and the association between the two conditions has been a motivation for researchers to look for targeted strategies that can simultaneously affect both diseases and reduce their overlapping burden. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, researchers have taken advantage of the availability and richness of administrative databases and electronic medical records to investigate the effects of drugs on cancer risk among diabetic individuals. The majority of these studies suggest that metformin could potentially reduce cancer risk. However, the validity of this purported reduction in cancer risk is limited by several methodological flaws either in the study design or in the analysis. Whether metformin use decreases cancer risk relies heavily on the availability of valid data sources with complete information on confounders, accurate assessment of drug use, appropriate study design, and robust analytical techniques. The majority of the observational studies assessing the association between metformin and cancer risk suffer from methodological shortcomings and efforts to address these issues have been incomplete. Future investigations on the association between metformin and cancer risk should clearly address the methodological issues due to confounding by indication, prevalent user bias, and time-related biases. Although the proposed strategies do not guarantee a bias-free estimate for the association between metformin and cancer, they will reduce synthesis of and reporting of erroneous results.

  14. Methodology for development of risk indicators for offshore platforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeien, K.; Sklet, S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a generic methodology for development of risk indicators for petroleum installations and a specific set of risk indicators established for one offshore platform. The risk indicators should be used to control the risk during operation of platforms. The methodology is purely risk-based and the basis for development of risk indicators is the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). In order to identify high risk contributing factors, platform personnel are asked to assess whether and how much the risk influencing factors will change. A brief comparison of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for nuclear power plants and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for petroleum platforms is also given. (au)

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  16. Transportation radiological risk assessment for the programmatic environmental impact statement: An overview of methodologies, assumptions, and input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.; Biwer, B.; LePoire, D.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is considering a broad range of alternatives for the future configuration of radioactive waste management at its network of facilities. Because the transportation of radioactive waste is an integral component of the management alternatives being considered, the estimated human health risks associated with both routine and accident transportation conditions must be assessed to allow a complete appraisal of the alternatives. This paper provides an overview of the technical approach being used to assess the radiological risks from the transportation of radioactive wastes. The approach presented employs the RADTRAN 4 computer code to estimate the collective population risk during routine and accident transportation conditions. Supplemental analyses are conducted using the RISKIND computer code to address areas of specific concern to individuals or population subgroups. RISKIND is used for estimating routine doses to maximally exposed individuals and for assessing the consequences of the most severe credible transportation accidents. The transportation risk assessment is designed to ensure -- through uniform and judicious selection of models, data, and assumptions -- that relative comparisons of risk among the various alternatives are meaningful. This is accomplished by uniformly applying common input parameters and assumptions to each waste type for all alternatives. The approach presented can be applied to all radioactive waste types and provides a consistent and comprehensive evaluation of transportation-related risk

  17. Methodologies to assess paediatric adiposity.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Horan, M

    2014-05-04

    Childhood obesity is associated with increased risk of adult obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer. Appropriate techniques for assessment of childhood adiposity are required to identify children at risk. The aim of this review was to examine core clinical measurements and more technical tools to assess paediatric adiposity.

  18. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  19. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  20. Safety methodology and risk targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazimi, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    In assessing the potential safety concerns of fusion, the experience from other energy sources lead to a variety of safety assessment approaches. The available approaches are: (1) The maximum possible accident approach; (2) The maximum credible accident approach; (3) The probabilistic total risk assessment. In the first approach, the mechanistic development of the events leading to the safety concern is ignored. Instead, the total radioactivity of the plant is assumed accessible to the public. Such an approach is obviously conservative and unrealistic. In the second approach a selection is made among the most severe of the possible accidents, and the progression of the accident is modeled as mechanistically as possible. In this case, the passive and active accident mitigation capabilities of the plant are taken into consideration. The result is expected to be that none or only a fraction of the total radioactivity can be released to the public. The adverse effect of this approach is to concentrate attention on a particular accident class, and perhaps not allow for other classes, a judgement that may later become undesirable. The probabilistic risk assessment requires the safety analysts to consider all classes of accidents and estimate both the probabilities of their occurrences and their consequences. Thus, the plant design in fact is subjected to a thorough investigation and the impact of alterations in design can be reflected in the total risk estimate. The disadvantage of this approach lies in the absence of well defined acceptable risk criteria as well as the large effect of public perception factors on the accepted risk. This paper will review the impact of application of these approaches in determination of the level of protection needed against activation product release to the atmosphere. (author)

  1. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  2. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  4. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  5. Hybrid causal methodology and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment and safety monitoring of socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groth, Katrina; Wang Chengdong; Mosleh, Ali

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces an integrated framework and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety monitoring of complex socio-technical systems. An overview of the three-layer hybrid causal logic (HCL) modeling approach and corresponding algorithms, implemented in the Trilith software platform, are provided. The HCL approach enhances typical PRA methods by quantitatively including the influence of soft causal factors introduced by human and organizational aspects of a system. The framework allows different modeling techniques to be used for different aspects of the socio-technical system. The HCL approach combines the power of traditional event sequence diagram (ESD)event tree (ET) and fault tree (FT) techniques for modeling deterministic causal paths, with the flexibility of Bayesian belief networks for modeling non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements (suitable for modeling human and organizational influences). Trilith enables analysts to construct HCL models and perform quantitative risk assessment and management of complex systems. The risk management capabilities included are HCL-based risk importance measures, hazard identification and ranking, precursor analysis, safety indicator monitoring, and root cause analysis. This paper describes the capabilities of the Trilith platform and power of the HCL algorithm by use of example risk models for a type of aviation accident (aircraft taking off from the wrong runway).

  6. Hybrid causal methodology and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment and safety monitoring of socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, Katrina, E-mail: kgroth@umd.ed [Center for Risk and Reliability, 0151 Glenn L. Martin Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Wang Chengdong; Mosleh, Ali [Center for Risk and Reliability, 0151 Glenn L. Martin Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    This paper introduces an integrated framework and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety monitoring of complex socio-technical systems. An overview of the three-layer hybrid causal logic (HCL) modeling approach and corresponding algorithms, implemented in the Trilith software platform, are provided. The HCL approach enhances typical PRA methods by quantitatively including the influence of soft causal factors introduced by human and organizational aspects of a system. The framework allows different modeling techniques to be used for different aspects of the socio-technical system. The HCL approach combines the power of traditional event sequence diagram (ESD)event tree (ET) and fault tree (FT) techniques for modeling deterministic causal paths, with the flexibility of Bayesian belief networks for modeling non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements (suitable for modeling human and organizational influences). Trilith enables analysts to construct HCL models and perform quantitative risk assessment and management of complex systems. The risk management capabilities included are HCL-based risk importance measures, hazard identification and ranking, precursor analysis, safety indicator monitoring, and root cause analysis. This paper describes the capabilities of the Trilith platform and power of the HCL algorithm by use of example risk models for a type of aviation accident (aircraft taking off from the wrong runway).

  7. Critical infrastructure systems of systems assessment methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sholander, Peter E.; Darby, John L.; Phelan, James M.; Smith, Bryan; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Walter, Andrew; Varnado, G. Bruce; Depoy, Jennifer Mae

    2006-10-01

    Assessing the risk of malevolent attacks against large-scale critical infrastructures requires modifications to existing methodologies that separately consider physical security and cyber security. This research has developed a risk assessment methodology that explicitly accounts for both physical and cyber security, while preserving the traditional security paradigm of detect, delay, and respond. This methodology also accounts for the condition that a facility may be able to recover from or mitigate the impact of a successful attack before serious consequences occur. The methodology uses evidence-based techniques (which are a generalization of probability theory) to evaluate the security posture of the cyber protection systems. Cyber threats are compared against cyber security posture using a category-based approach nested within a path-based analysis to determine the most vulnerable cyber attack path. The methodology summarizes the impact of a blended cyber/physical adversary attack in a conditional risk estimate where the consequence term is scaled by a ''willingness to pay'' avoidance approach.

  8. Methodology for allocating reliability and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

    1986-05-01

    This report describes a methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants. The work investigates the technical feasibility of allocating reliability and risk, which are expressed in a set of global safety criteria and which may not necessarily be rigid, to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner. The report also provides general discussions on the problem of reliability and risk allocation. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm. The work mainly addresses the first two steps of a typical decision analysis, i.e., (1) identifying alternatives, and (2) generating information on outcomes of the alternatives, by performing a multiobjective optimization on a PRA model and reliability cost functions. The multiobjective optimization serves as the guiding principle to reliability and risk allocation. The concept of ''noninferiority'' is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The final step of decision analysis, i.e., assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided, and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation, preference assessment, and uncertainty are discussed. 29 refs., 44 figs., 39 tabs

  9. Methodology for analyzing risk at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Hosik; Lee, Nayoung; Ham, Taekyu; Seo, Janghoon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new methodology for evaluating the risk at nuclear facilities was developed. • Five measures reflecting all factors that should be concerned to assess risk were developed. • The attributes on NMAC and nuclear security culture are included as attributes for analyzing. • The newly developed methodology can be used to evaluate risk of both existing facility and future nuclear system. - Abstract: A methodology for evaluating risks at nuclear facilities is developed in this work. A series of measures is drawn from the analysis of factors that determine risks. Five measures are created to evaluate risks at nuclear facilities. These include the legal and institutional framework, material control, physical protection system effectiveness, human resources, and consequences. Evaluation attributes are developed for each measure and specific values are given in order to calculate the risk value quantitatively. Questionnaires are drawn up on whether or not a state has properly established a legal and regulatory framework (based on international standards). These questionnaires can be a useful measure for comparing the status of the physical protection regime between two countries. Analyzing an insider threat is not an easy task and no methodology has been developed for this purpose. In this study, attributes that could quantitatively evaluate an insider threat, in the case of an unauthorized removal of nuclear materials, are developed by adopting the Nuclear Material Accounting & Control (NMAC) system. The effectiveness of a physical protection system, P(E), could be analyzed by calculating the probability of interruption, P(I), and the probability of neutralization, P(N). In this study, the Tool for Evaluating Security System (TESS) code developed by KINAC is used to calculate P(I) and P(N). Consequence is an important measure used to analyze risks at nuclear facilities. This measure comprises radiological, economic, and social damage. Social and

  10. AGR core safety assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLachlan, N.; Reed, J.; Metcalfe, M.P.

    1996-01-01

    To demonstrate the safety of its gas-cooled graphite-moderated AGR reactors, nuclear safety assessments of the cores are based upon a methodology which demonstrates no component failures, geometrical stability of the structure and material properties bounded by a database. All AGRs continue to meet these three criteria. However, predictions of future core behaviour indicate that the safety case methodology will eventually need to be modified to deal with new phenomena. A new approach to the safety assessment of the cores is currently under development, which can take account of these factors while at the same time providing the same level of protection for the cores. This approach will be based on the functionality of the core: unhindered movement of control rods, continued adequate cooling of the fuel and the core, continued ability to charge and discharge fuel. (author). 5 figs

  11. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  12. A methodology of the assessment of environmental and human health risks from amine emissions from post combustion CO2 capture technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korre, Anna; Manzoor, Saba; Simperler, Alexandra

    2015-04-01

    Post combustion CO2 capture (PCCC) technology in power plants using amines as solvent for CO2 capture, is one of the reduction technologies employed to combat escalating levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, amine solvents used for capturing CO2 produce negative emissions such as, nitrosamines and nitramines, which are suspected to be potent carcinogens. It is therefore essential to assess the atmospheric fate of these amine emissions in the atmosphere by studying their atmospheric chemistry, dispersion and transport pathways away from the source and deposition in the environment, so as to be able to assess accurately the risk posed to human health and the natural environment. An important knowledge gap until recently has been the consideration of the atmospheric chemistry of these amine emissions simultaneously with dispersion and deposition studies so as to perform reliable human health and environmental risk assessments. The authors have developed a methodology to assess the distribution of such emissions away from a post-combustion facility by studying the atmospheric chemistry of monoethanolamine, the most commonly used solvent for CO2 capture, and those of the resulting degradation amines, methylamine and dimethylamine. This was coupled with dispersion modeling calculations (Manzoor, et al., 2014; Manzoor et al,2015). Rate coefficients describing the entire atmospheric chemistry schemes of the amines studied were evaluated employing quantum chemical theoretical and kinetic modeling calculations. These coefficients were used to solve the advection-dispersion-chemical equation using an atmospheric dispersion model, ADMS 5. This methodology is applicable to any size of a power plant and at any geographical location. In this paper, the humman health risk assessment is integrated in the modelling study. The methodology is demonstrated on a case study on the UK's largest capture pilot plant, Ferrybridge CCPilot 100+, to estimate the dispersion, chemical

  13. From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  14. From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  15. Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors. (3) Numerical simulations of forest fire spread and smoke transport as an external hazard assessment methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa

    2015-01-01

    As a part of a development of the risk assessment methodologies against external hazards, a new methodology to assess forest fire hazards is being developed. Frequency and consequence of the forest fire are analyzed to obtain the hazard intensity curve and then Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment is performed to obtain the conditional core damage probability due to the challenges by the forest fire. 'Heat', 'flame', 'smoke' and 'flying object' are the challenges to a nuclear power plant. For a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a decay heat removal under accident conditions is operated with an ultimate heat sink of air, then, the challenge by 'smoke' will potentially be on the air filter of the system. In this paper, numerical simulations of forest fire propagation and smoke transport were performed with sensibility studies to weather conditions, and the effect by the smoke on the air filter was quantitatively evaluated. Forest fire propagation simulations were performed using FARSITE code. A temporal increase of a forest fire spread area and a position of the frontal fireline are obtained by the simulation, and 'reaction intensity' and 'frontal fireline intensity' as the indexes of 'heat' are obtained as well. The boundary of the fire spread area is shaped like an ellipse on the terrain, and the boundary length is increased with time and fire spread. The sensibility analyses on weather conditions of wind, temperature, and humidity were performed, and it was summarized that 'forest fire spread rate' and 'frontal fireline intensity' depend much on wind speed and humidity. Smoke transport simulations were performed by ALOFT-FT code where three-dimensional spatial distribution of smoke density, especially of particle matters of PM2.5 and PM10, are evaluated. The snapshot outputs, namely 'reaction intensity' and 'position of frontal fireline', from the sensibility studies of the FARSITE were directly utilized as the input data for ALOFT-FT, whereas it is assumed that the

  16. [Methodological aspects of risk assessment of work related stress. Italian experience of R Karasek JCQ application, a multiphase approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, M M; Cesana, G

    2009-01-01

    Due to a new legislation, the assessment of work stress has become compulsory in Italy for all the enterprise. Work stress is become a leading health problem in work settings all over Europe. The two major approaches, the expert-based direct observations and the measurements of the perceived job strain, are briefly introduced emphasizing on strengthens and weaknesses. Among the methods to assess perceived job stress, the Karasek's Job Content Questionnaire has been extensively used in Italy, and the available results support its use because reliable and able to pick up major constrictiveness at work. In addition, because it is now possible to have reference levels, comparisons are possible for either public or private enterprises. Acknowledging the complexity of carrying out reliable assessment of work stress, a multiphase approach is emphasised: first an analysis or current data can be used to estimate the levels of turnover, down-sizing, outsourcing, extra hours, shift work, sickness absenteeism, changes of job titles, work accidents and work-related diseases. At a second step, on groups of workers selected because recognised at risk at the first phase and on control groups, the JCQ can be used to assess workers stress perception. Finally, when constrain conditions emerge,further investigations are required, including: intervention of experts in work organisation analysis, clinical psychological examinations of selected workers, to separate between work-related and personal psychological problems and health consequences.

  17. Development Methodology of a Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment Tool for Digital I and C Systems in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. K.; Song, J. G.; Lee, Y. J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.

    2011-01-01

    With the use of digital computers and communication networks the hot issues on cyber security were raised about 10 years ago. The scope of cyber security application has now been extended from the safety Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system to safety important systems, plant security system, and emergency preparedness system. Therefore, cyber security should be assessed and managed systematically throughout the development life cycle of I and C systems in order for their digital assets to be protected from cyber attacks. Fig. 1 shows the concept of a cyber security risk management of digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A lot of cyber security risk assessment methods, techniques, and supported tools have been developed for Information Technology (IT) systems, but they have not been utilized widely for cyber security risk assessments of the digital I and C systems in NPPs. The main reason is a difference in goals between IT systems and nuclear I and C systems. Confidentiality is important in IT systems, but availability and integrity are important in nuclear I and C systems. Last year, it was started to develop a software tool to be specialized for the development process of nuclear I and C systems. This paper presents a development methodology of the Cyber Security Risk analysis and Assessment Tool (CSRAT) for the digital I and C systems in NPP

  18. Development Methodology of a Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment Tool for Digital I and C Systems in Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. K.; Song, J. G.; Lee, Y. J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    With the use of digital computers and communication networks the hot issues on cyber security were raised about 10 years ago. The scope of cyber security application has now been extended from the safety Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system to safety important systems, plant security system, and emergency preparedness system. Therefore, cyber security should be assessed and managed systematically throughout the development life cycle of I and C systems in order for their digital assets to be protected from cyber attacks. Fig. 1 shows the concept of a cyber security risk management of digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A lot of cyber security risk assessment methods, techniques, and supported tools have been developed for Information Technology (IT) systems, but they have not been utilized widely for cyber security risk assessments of the digital I and C systems in NPPs. The main reason is a difference in goals between IT systems and nuclear I and C systems. Confidentiality is important in IT systems, but availability and integrity are important in nuclear I and C systems. Last year, it was started to develop a software tool to be specialized for the development process of nuclear I and C systems. This paper presents a development methodology of the Cyber Security Risk analysis and Assessment Tool (CSRAT) for the digital I and C systems in NPP

  19. Simulation enabled safeguards assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bean, Robert; Bjornard, Trond; Larson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    It is expected that nuclear energy will be a significant component of future supplies. New facilities, operating under a strengthened international nonproliferation regime will be needed. There is good reason to believe virtual engineering applied to the facility design, as well as to the safeguards system design will reduce total project cost and improve efficiency in the design cycle. Simulation Enabled Safeguards Assessment MEthodology has been developed as a software package to provide this capability for nuclear reprocessing facilities. The software architecture is specifically designed for distributed computing, collaborative design efforts, and modular construction to allow step improvements in functionality. Drag and drop wire-frame construction allows the user to select the desired components from a component warehouse, render the system for 3D visualization, and, linked to a set of physics libraries and/or computational codes, conduct process evaluations of the system they have designed. (authors)

  20. Simulation Enabled Safeguards Assessment Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert Bean; Trond Bjornard; Thomas Larson

    2007-01-01

    It is expected that nuclear energy will be a significant component of future supplies. New facilities, operating under a strengthened international nonproliferation regime will be needed. There is good reason to believe virtual engineering applied to the facility design, as well as to the safeguards system design will reduce total project cost and improve efficiency in the design cycle. Simulation Enabled Safeguards Assessment Methodology (SESAME) has been developed as a software package to provide this capability for nuclear reprocessing facilities. The software architecture is specifically designed for distributed computing, collaborative design efforts, and modular construction to allow step improvements in functionality. Drag and drop wireframe construction allows the user to select the desired components from a component warehouse, render the system for 3D visualization, and, linked to a set of physics libraries and/or computational codes, conduct process evaluations of the system they have designed

  1. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  2. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  3. A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

    In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a

  4. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  5. A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

    2013-09-01

    A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

  6. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  7. Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Powles John W

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD BMI of 21 (1 Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

  8. Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

    2009-06-30

    Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

  9. Assessment of methodologies for radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoos, I.R.

    1978-01-01

    No quantitative methodology is adequate to encompass and assess all the risks, no risk/benefit calculation is fine-tuned enough to supply decision-makers with the full range and all of the dimensions. Quality assurance cannot be conceived in terms of systems design alone, but must be maintained vigilantly and with integrity throughout the process. The responsibility of the NRC is fairly well established with respect to overall reactor safety. With respect to the management of radioactive wastes, its mission is not yet so clearly delineated. Herein lies a challenge and an opportunity. Where the known quantitative methodologies are restrictive and likely to have negative feedback effect on authority and public support, the broader lens and the bolder thrust are called for. The cozy cocoon of figures ultimately protects no one. The Commission, having acknowledged that the management of radioactive wastes is not merely a technological matter can now take the socially responsible position of exploring as fully and confronting as candidly as possible the total range of dimensions involved. Paradoxically, it is Charles J. Hitch, intellectual progenitor of the methodology, who observes that we may be missing the meaning of his message by relying too heavily on quantitative analysis and thus defining our task too narrowly. We live in a closed system, in which science and technology, politics and economics, and, above all, social and human elements interact, sometimes to create the problems, sometimes to articulate the questions, and sometimes to find viable solutions

  10. Advanced methodology for risk and vulnerability assessment of interdependency of critical infrastructure in respect to urban floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serre Damien

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of the urban network infrastructures, and their interactions during flood events, will have direct and indirect consequences on the flood risk level in the built environment. By urban network infrastructures we include all the urban technical networks like transportation, energy, water supply, waste water, telecommunication…able to spread the flood risk in cities, qualified as critical infrastructures due to their major roles for modern living standards. From history, most of cities in the world have been built close to coast lines or to river to beneficiate this means of communication and trade. Step by step, to avoid being flooded, defences like levees have been built. The capacity of the levees to retain the floods depends on their conditions, their performance level and the capacity of the authorities to well maintain these infrastructures. But recent history shows the limits of a flood risk management strategy focused on protection, leading to levee breaks these last decades. Then, in case of levee break, cities will be flooded. The urban technical networks, due to the way they have been designed, their conditions and their locations in the city, will play a major role in the diffusion of the flood extent. Also, the flood risk will have consequences in some not flooded neighbourhoods due to networks collapses and complex interdependencies. This article describes some methods to design spatial decision support systems in that context.

  11. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  12. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  13. Methodological Aspects of In Vitro Assessment of Bio-accessible Risk Element Pool in Urban Particulate Matter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sysalová, J.; Száková, J.; Tremlová, J.; Kašparovská, Kateřina; Kotlík, B.; Tlustoš, P.; Svoboda, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 161, č. 2 (2014), s. 216-222 ISSN 0163-4984 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA521/09/1150; GA ČR(CZ) GAP503/12/0682 Program:GA; GA Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : risk elements * urban particulate matter * in vitro tests * bio-accessibility Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 1.748, year: 2014

  14. Nanotoxicology materials, methodologies, and assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Durán, Nelson; Alves, Oswaldo L; Zucolotto, Valtencir

    2014-01-01

    This book begins with a detailed introduction to engineered nanostructures, followed by a section on methodologies used in research on cytotoxicity and genotoxicity, and concluding with evidence for the cyto- and genotoxicity of specific nanoparticles.

  15. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  16. Risk management methodology for RBMN project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

    2013-01-01

    RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

  17. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  18. Application of Biota Dose Assessment Committee Methodology to Assess Radiological Risk to Salmonids in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poston, Ted M.; Antonio, Ernest J.; Peterson, Robert E.

    2002-01-01

    Protective guidance for biota in the U.S. Department of Energy's Graded Approach for Evaluating Radiation Doses to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota is based on population level protection guides of 10 or 1 mGy.d-1, respectively. Several 'ecologically significant units' of Pacific salmon are listed under the Endangered Species Act. The Middle Columbia Steelhead unit is endangered and the adult steelhead spawn in the reach. The reach also supports one of the largest spawning populations of fall chinook salmon in the Northwest. The existence of the major spawning areas in the Hanford Reach has focused considerable attention on their ecological health by the U.S. Department of Energy, other federal and state regulatory agencies, and special interest groups. Dose assessments for developing salmonid embryos were performed for the hypothetical exposure to tritium, strontium-90, technetium-99, iodine-129, and uranium isotopes at specific sites on the Hanford Reach. These early life stages are potentially exposed in some areas of the Hanford Reach to radiological contaminants that enter the river via shoreline seeps and upwelling through the river substrate. At the screening level, one site approached the dose guideline of 10 mGy.d-1 established with the RAD-BCG methodology and exceeded a precautionary benchmark of 2.5 mGy.d-1. Special status of listed species affords these populations more consideration when assessing potential impacts of exposure to radionuclides and other contaminants associated with the Hanford Site operations. The evolution of dose benchmarks for aquatic organisms and consideration of precautionary principal and cumulative impacts are discussed in this paper.

  19. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  20. Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; Dillon, R.T.; Tierney, M.S.; Davis, H.T.; McGrath, P.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Shaw, H.R.; Helton, J.C.; Donath, F.A.

    1978-10-01

    The Fuel Cycle Risk Analysis Division of Sandia Laboratories is funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop a methodology for assessment of the long-term risks from radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media. The first phase of this work, which is documented in this report, involves the following: (1) development of analytical models to represent the processes by which radioactive waste might leave the waste repository, enter the surface environment and eventually reach humans and (2) definition of a hypothetical ''reference system'' to provide a realistic setting for exercise of the models in a risk or safety assessment. The second phase of this work, which will be documented in a later report, will involve use of the analytical models in a demonstration risk or safety assessment of the reference system. The analytical methods and data developed in this study are expected to form the basis for a portion of the NRC repository licensing methodology

  1. Technology Performance Level Assessment Methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Jesse D.; Bull, Diana L; Malins, Robert Joseph; Costello, Ronan Patrick; Aurelien Babarit; Kim Nielsen; Claudio Bittencourt Ferreira; Ben Kennedy; Kathryn Dykes; Jochem Weber

    2017-04-01

    The technology performance level (TPL) assessments can be applied at all technology development stages and associated technology readiness levels (TRLs). Even, and particularly, at low TRLs the TPL assessment is very effective as it, holistically, considers a wide range of WEC attributes that determine the techno-economic performance potential of the WEC farm when fully developed for commercial operation. The TPL assessment also highlights potential showstoppers at the earliest possible stage of the WEC technology development. Hence, the TPL assessment identifies the technology independent “performance requirements.” In order to achieve a successful solution, the entirety of the performance requirements within the TPL must be considered because, in the end, all the stakeholder needs must be achieved. The basis for performing a TPL assessment comes from the information provided in a dedicated format, the Technical Submission Form (TSF). The TSF requests information from the WEC developer that is required to answer the questions posed in the TPL assessment document.

  2. Q methodology, risk training and quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeown, M; Hinks, M; Stowell-Smith, M; Mercer, D; Forster, J

    1999-01-01

    The results of a Q methodological study of professional understandings of the notion of risk in mental health services within the UK are discussed in relation to the relevance for staff training and quality assurance. The study attempted to access the diversity of understandings of risk issues amongst a multi-professional group of staff (n = 60) attending inter-agency risk training workshops in 1998. Q methodology is presented as both an appropriate means for such inquiry and as a novel experiential technique for training purposes. A tentative argument is advanced that the qualitative accounts generated by Q research could assist in systematic reviews of quality, complementing the singularly quantitative approaches typically represented in the audit process.

  3. Overview of the ISAM safety assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simeonov, G.

    2003-01-01

    The ISAM safety assessment methodology consists of the following key components: specification of the assessment context description of the disposal system development and justification of scenarios formulation and implementation of models running of computer codes and analysis and presentation of results. Common issues run through two or more of these assessment components, including: use of methodological and computer tools, collation and use of data, need to address various sources of uncertainty, building of confidence in the individual components, as well as the overall assessment. The importance of the iterative nature of the assessment should be recognised

  4. Assessment methodology for radioactive effluents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    The objective of this environmental assessment is to define and rank the needs for controlling radioactive effluents from nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The assessment is based on environmental standards and dose-to-man calculations. The study includes three calculations for each isotope from each facility: maximum individual dose for a 50-year dose commitment from a 1-yr exposure according to the organ affected; population dose for a 50-yr dose commitment from a 1-yr exposure according to the organ affected; and annual dose rate for the maximally exposed individual. The relative contribution of a specific nuclide and source to the total dose provides a method of ranking the nuclides, which in turn identifies the sources that should receive the greatest control in the future. These results will be used in subsequent tasks to assess the environmental impact of the total nuclear fuel cycle

  5. Using proliferation assessment methodologies for Safeguards-by-Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Meer, K.; Rossa, R.; Turcanu, C.; Borella, A.

    2013-01-01

    MYRRHA, an accelerator driven system (ADS) is designed as a proton accelerator coupled to a liquid Pb-Bi spallation target, surrounded by a Pb-Bi cooled sub-critical neutron multiplying medium in a pool type configuration. An assessment based on three methodologies was made of the proliferation risks of the MYRRHA ADS in comparison with the BR2 MTR, an existing research reactor at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre SCK-CEN. The used methodologies were the TOPS (Technical Opportunities to Increase the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems), the PR-PP and the INPRO methodologies. The various features of the methodologies are described and the results of the assessments are given and discussed. It is concluded that it would be useful to define one single methodology with two options to perform a quick and a more detailed assessment. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation

  6. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  7. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  9. USGS Methodology for Assessing Continuous Petroleum Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a new quantitative methodology for assessing resources in continuous (unconventional) petroleum deposits. Continuous petroleum resources include shale gas, coalbed gas, and other oil and gas deposits in low-permeability ("tight") reservoirs. The methodology is based on an approach combining geologic understanding with well productivities. The methodology is probabilistic, with both input and output variables as probability distributions, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the estimates. The new methodology is an improvement of previous USGS methodologies in that it better accommodates the uncertainties in undrilled or minimally drilled deposits that must be assessed using analogs. The publication is a collection of PowerPoint slides with accompanying comments.

  10. Methodology for NDA performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuypers, M.; Franklin, M.; Guardini, S.

    1986-01-01

    In the framework of the RandD programme of the Joint Research Centre of the Commission of the European Communities, a considerable effort is being dedicated to performance assessment of NDA techniques taking account of field conditions. By taking account of field conditions is meant measurement samples of the size encountered in practice and training which allows inspectors to design cost efficient verification plans for the real situations encountered in the field. Special laboratory facilities referred to as PERLA are being constructed for this purpose. These facilities will be used for measurement experiments and for training. In this paper, performance assessment is discussed under the headings of measurement capability and in-field effectiveness. Considerable emphasis is given to the role of method specific measurement error models. The authors outline the advantages of giving statistical error models a sounder basis in the physical phenomenology of the measurement method

  11. Comparative analysis of proliferation resistance assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaki, Naoyuki; Kikuchi, Masahiro; Inoue, Naoko; Osabe, Takeshi

    2005-01-01

    Comparative analysis of the methodologies was performed based on the discussions in the international workshop on 'Assessment Methodology of Proliferation Resistance for Future Nuclear Energy Systems' held in Tokyo, on March 2005. Through the workshop and succeeding considerations, it is clarified that the proliferation resistance assessment methodologies are affected by the broader nuclear options being pursued and also by the political situations of the state. Even the definition of proliferation resistance, despite the commonality of fundamental issues, derives from perceived threat and implementation circumstances inherent to the larger programs. Deep recognitions of the 'difference' among communities would help us to make further essential and progressed discussion with harmonization. (author)

  12. Methodologies of environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroll, H.

    1994-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction covering the objectives of environmental impact assessment (EIA) and sustainable development, before going on to describe the screening procedure to define the environmental and socio-economic impacts of projects. The EIA procedure outlined encompasses a description of the project, examination of all environmental effects (scoping), identification of existing and predicted environmental conditions and impacts, alternative measures and mitigating measures, co-ordination, with environmental regulations, public participation, and monitoring and approval of the EIA. (UK)

  13. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  14. A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

    2010-05-01

    In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet

  15. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  16. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  17. Notes for a workshop on risk analysis and decision under uncertainty. The practical use of probabilistic and Bayesian methodology inreal life risk assessment and decision problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables. (RWR)

  18. Notes for a workshop on risk analysis and decision under uncertainty. The practical use of probabilistic and Bayesian methodology inreal life risk assessment and decision problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables

  19. Criticality incident detection assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haley, Richard M.; Warburton, Simon J.; Bowden, Russell L.

    2003-01-01

    In the United Kingdom, all nuclear facilities that handle, treat or store fissile material require a Criticality Incident Detection and Alarm System (CIDAS) to be installed, unless a case is made for the omission of such a system. Where it is concluded that a CIDAS is required, the primary objective is the reliable detection of criticality and the initiation of prompt evacuation of plant workers from the vicinity of the incident. This paper will examine and compare various methods that can be used to demonstrate that a CIDAS will satisfy the detection criterion. The paper will focus on fit-for-purpose and cost-effective methods for the assessment of gamma-based systems. In the experience of the authors this is particularly useful in demonstrating the efficacy of existing systems in operational plant. (author)

  20. Breast ductal lavage for biomarker assessment in high risk women: rationale, design and methodology of a randomized phase II clinical trial with nimesulide, simvastatin and placebo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazzeroni, Matteo; Radice, Davide; Bonanni, Bernardo; Guerrieri-Gonzaga, Aliana; Serrano, Davide; Cazzaniga, Massimiliano; Mora, Serena; Casadio, Chiara; Jemos, Costantino; Pizzamiglio, Maria; Cortesi, Laura

    2012-01-01

    Despite positive results from large phase III clinical trials proved that it is possible to prevent estrogen-responsive breast cancers with selective estrogen receptor modulators and aromatase inhibitors, no significant results have been reached so far to prevent hormone non-responsive tumors. The Ductal Lavage (DL) procedure offers a minimally invasive method to obtain breast epithelial cells from the ductal system for cytopathologic analysis. Several studies with long-term follow-up have shown that women with atypical hyperplasia have an elevated risk of developing breast cancer. The objective of the proposed trial is to assess the efficacy and safety of a daily administration of nimesulide or simvastatin in women at higher risk for breast cancer, focused particularly on hormone non-responsive tumor risk. The primary endpoint is the change in prevalence of atypical cells and cell proliferation (measured by Ki67) in DL or fine needle aspirate samples, after 12 months of treatment and 12 months after treatment cessation. From 2005 to 2011, 150 women with a history of estrogen receptor negative ductal intraepithelial neoplasia or lobular intraepithelial neoplasia or atypical hyperplasia, or unaffected subjects carrying a mutation of BRCA1 or with a probability of mutation >10% (according to BRCAPRO) were randomized to receive nimesulide 100mg/day versus simvastatin 20mg/day versus placebo for one year followed by a second year of follow-up. This is the first randomized placebo controlled trial to evaluate the role of DL to study surrogate endpoints biomarkers and the effects of these drugs on breast carcinogenesis. In 2007 the European Medicines Agency limited the use of systemic formulations of nimesulide to 15 days. According to the European Institute of Oncology Ethics Committee communication, we are now performing an even more careful monitoring of the study participants. Preliminary results showed that DL is a feasible procedure, the treatment is well tolerated

  1. A methodology for flood risk appraisal in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriščiukaitienė Irena

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for flood risk mapping as envisaged by the Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks [Directive 2007/60/EC]. Specifically, we aimed at identifying the types of flood damage that can be estimated given data availability in Lithuania. Furthermore, we present the main sources of data and the associated cost functions. The methodology covers the following main types of flood threats: risk to inhabitants, risk to economic activity, and social risk. A multi-criteria framework for aggregation of different risks is proposed to provide a comprehensive appraisal of flood risk. On the basis of the proposed research, flood risk maps have been prepared for Lithuania. These maps are available for each type of flood risk (i.e. inhabitants, economic losses, social risk as well as for aggregate risk. The results indicate that flood risk management is crucial for western and central Lithuania, whereas other parts of the country are not likely to suffer from significant losses due to flooding.

  2. Assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators: screening methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fradkin, L.; Bruins, J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.; Rubin, A.

    1987-04-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e., facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium.

  3. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  4. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  5. Health economic assessment: a methodological primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Steven

    2009-12-01

    This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

  6. Health Economic Assessment: A Methodological Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Simoens

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs, an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis, and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

  7. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  8. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  9. CATHARE code development and assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Micaelli, J.C.; Barre, F.; Bestion, D.

    1995-01-01

    The CATHARE thermal-hydraulic code has been developed jointly by Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Electricite de France (EdF), and Framatorne for safety analysis. Since the beginning of the project (September 1979), development and assessment activities have followed a methodology supported by two series of experimental tests: separate effects tests and integral effects tests. The purpose of this paper is to describe this methodology, the code assessment status, and the evolution to take into account two new components of this program: the modeling of three-dimensional phenomena and the requirements of code uncertainty evaluation

  10. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  11. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  12. Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  13. Risk methodologies for offsite hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Eichler, T.V.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1983-01-01

    A number of suggestions have been advanced in recent years concerning the risks posed to nuclear power plants by offsite hazardous materials relative to (1) the regulatory approach including considerations of minimum and safe standoff distances, exclusion distances, site acceptance ceilings and floors, screening distances and screening probabilities, plant design, etc., and (2) the analysis and evaluation procedures such as material screening criteria, plant vulnerability, standarized physical models, etc. An evaluation of current analyses and approaches indicates that this complex problem, variety of approaches, and safety concerns may be better accommodated by developing criteria and treatments along the lines of a so-called conditional risk approach. Specifically, the probability (P) of some ultimate consequence (C) occurring from an accident (A) involving hazardous materials is given as P(C) = P(C/A) x P(A). Assuming that the plant to accident site standoff distance is the fundamental independent variable of the risk methodology, certain conditional risk designations and conditions can be made and are presented

  14. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  15. A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively.

  16. A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively

  17. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  18. A methodology for assessing public health risk associated with groundwater nitrate contamination: a case study in an agricultural setting (southern Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chica-Olmo, Mario; Peluso, Fabio; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Rivas, Lucía

    2017-10-01

    Groundwater nitrate contamination from agriculture is of paramount environmental interest. A continuous consumption of polluted water as drinking water or for culinary purposes is by no means a minor hazard for people's health that must be studied. This research presents a new methodology for the spatial analysis of health risk rate from intake of nitrate-polluted groundwater. The method is illustrated through its application to a water quality sampling campaign performed in the south of Spain in 2003. The probability risk model used by the US Environmental Protection Agency has been applied, considering a residential intake framework and three representative population age groups (10, 40 and 65 years).The method was based upon coupling Monte Carlo simulations and geostatistics, which allowed mapping of the health risk coefficient (RC). The maps obtained were interpreted in the framework of water resources management and user's health protection (municipalities). The results showed waterborne health risk caused by nitrate-polluted water is moderately low for the region. The observed risk was larger for the elderly and children, although no significant differences were found among the three age groups (RC average values of 95th percentile for age of 0.37, 0.33 and 0.37, respectively). Significant risk values of RC > 1 were obtained for 10 % of the surface in the NW site of the study area, where the municipalities with the highest contamination thresholds are located (agricultural activity). Nitrate concentration and intake rate stood out as the main explanatory variables of the RC.

  19. An overview of performance assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hongnian Jow

    2010-01-01

    The definition of performance assessment (PA) within the context of a geologic repository program is a post-closure safety assessment; a system analysis of hazards associated with the facility and the ability of the site and the design of the facility to provide for the safety functions. For the last few decades, PA methodology bas been developed and applied to different waste disposal programs around the world. PA has been used in the safety analyses for waste disposal repositories for low-level waste, intermediate level waste, and high-level waste including spent nuclear fuels. This paper provides an overview of the performance assessment methodology and gives examples of its applications for the Yucca Mountain Project. (authors)

  20. Vending machine assessment methodology. A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Melissa A; Horacek, Tanya M

    2015-07-01

    The nutritional quality of food and beverage products sold in vending machines has been implicated as a contributing factor to the development of an obesogenic food environment. How comprehensive, reliable, and valid are the current assessment tools for vending machines to support or refute these claims? A systematic review was conducted to summarize, compare, and evaluate the current methodologies and available tools for vending machine assessment. A total of 24 relevant research studies published between 1981 and 2013 met inclusion criteria for this review. The methodological variables reviewed in this study include assessment tool type, study location, machine accessibility, product availability, healthfulness criteria, portion size, price, product promotion, and quality of scientific practice. There were wide variations in the depth of the assessment methodologies and product healthfulness criteria utilized among the reviewed studies. Of the reviewed studies, 39% evaluated machine accessibility, 91% evaluated product availability, 96% established healthfulness criteria, 70% evaluated portion size, 48% evaluated price, 52% evaluated product promotion, and 22% evaluated the quality of scientific practice. Of all reviewed articles, 87% reached conclusions that provided insight into the healthfulness of vended products and/or vending environment. Product healthfulness criteria and complexity for snack and beverage products was also found to be variable between the reviewed studies. These findings make it difficult to compare results between studies. A universal, valid, and reliable vending machine assessment tool that is comprehensive yet user-friendly is recommended. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  2. Risk assessment calculations using MEPAS, an accepted screening methodology, and an uncertainty analysis for the reranking of Waste Area Groupings at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevenell, L.; Hoffman, F.O.; MacIntosh, D.

    1992-03-01

    The Waste Area Groupings (WAGs) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were reranked with respect to on- and off-site human health risks using two different methods. Risks associated with selected contaminants from each WAG for occupants of WAG 2 or an off-site area were calculated using a modified formulation of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) and a method suitable for screening, referred to as the ORNL/ESD method (the method developed by the Environmental Sciences Division at ORNL) in this report. Each method resulted in a different ranking of the WAGs. The rankings from the two methods are compared in this report. All risk assessment calculations, except the original MEPAS calculations, indicated that WAGs 1; 2, 6, 7 (WAGs 2, 6 and 7 as one combined WAG); and 4 pose the greatest potential threat to human health. However, the overall rankings of the WAGs using constant parameter values in the different methods were inconclusive because uncertainty in parameter values can change the calculated risk associated with particular pathways, and hence, the final rankings. Uncertainty analysis using uncertainties about all model parameters were used to reduce biases associated with parameter selection and to more reliably rank waste sites according to potential risks associated with site contaminants. Uncertainty analysis indicates that the WAGs should be considered for further investigation, or remediation, in the following order: (1) WAG 1; (2) WAGs 2, 6, and 7 (combined); and 4; (3) WAGs 3, 5, and 9; and, (4) WAG 8

  3. IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

  4. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  5. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  6. Methodology for assessing laser-based equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelegrina-Bonilla, Gabriel; Hermsdorf, Jörg; Thombansen, Ulrich; Abels, Peter; Kaierle, Stefan; Neumann, Jörg

    2017-10-01

    Methodologies for the assessment of technology's maturity are widely used in industry and research. Probably the best known are technology readiness levels (TRLs), initially pioneered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). At the beginning, only descriptively defined TRLs existed, but over time, automated assessment techniques in the form of questionnaires emerged in order to determine TRLs. Originally TRLs targeted equipment for space applications, but the demands on industrial relevant equipment are partly different in terms of, for example, overall costs, product quantities, or the presence of competitors. Therefore, we present a commonly valid assessment methodology with the aim of assessing laser-based equipment for industrial use, in general. The assessment is carried out with the help of a questionnaire, which allows for a user-friendly and easy accessible way to monitor the progress from the lab-proven state to the application-ready product throughout the complete development period. The assessment result is presented in a multidimensional metric in order to reveal the current specific strengths and weaknesses of the equipment development process, which can be used to direct the remaining development process of the equipment in the right direction.

  7. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario

  8. Evaluation of methodologies for risk assessment of combined toxic actions of chemical substances and establishment of PBTK/TD models for pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein

    for pragmatic reasons, it is often more appropriate to consider the individual compounds as possible candidates for one (or more) cumulative assessment group(s). The cumulative risk assessment of this group will then be performed assuming simple similar action using one of the single compound approaches...... will consists of sets of identical equations, one set for each chemical as well as equations that specifically accounts for the interactions (e.g. competitive inhibition of metabolism in liver or induction of hepatic metabolism). The development of PBTK models is complex and should only be used when...

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  10. Department of Energy's process waste assessment graded approach methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pemberton, S.E.

    1994-03-01

    As the initial phase of the formal waste minimization program, the Department of Energy requires assessments of all its waste-generating operations. These assessments, called process waste assessments (PWAs), are a tool which helps achieve the pollution prevention goals. The DOE complex is comprised of numerous sites located in many different states. The facilities as a whole represent a tremendous diversity of technologies, processes, and activities. Due to this diversity, there are also a wide variety and number of waste streams generated. Many of these waste streams are small, intermittent, and not of consistent composition. The PWA graded approach methodology addresses these complexities and recognizes that processes vary in the quantity of pollution they generate, as well as in the perceived risk and associated hazards. Therefore, the graded approach was developed to provide a cost-effective and flexible methodology which allows individual sites to prioritize their local concerns and align their efforts with the resources allocated. This presentation will describe a project sponsored by the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, Waste Minimization Division, which developed a graded approach methodology for use throughout the DOE. This methodology was initiated in FY93 through a combined effort of the following DOE/Defense Program sites: Kansas City Plant, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories. This presentation will describe the process waste assessment tool, benefits achieved through the completion of PWAs, DOE's graded approach methodology, and an update on the project's current status

  11. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  12. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  15. Methodologies for Social Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Andreas; Le Bocq, Agathe; Nazakina, Liudmila

    2008-01-01

    Goal, Scope and Background. In recent years several different approaches towards Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) have been developed. The purpose of this review is to compare these approaches in order to highlight methodological differences and general shortcomings. SLCA has several similarit......Goal, Scope and Background. In recent years several different approaches towards Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) have been developed. The purpose of this review is to compare these approaches in order to highlight methodological differences and general shortcomings. SLCA has several...... similarities with other social assessment tools, but in order to limit the review, only claims to address social impacts from an LCA-like framework is considered. Main Features. The review is to a large extent based on conference proceedings and reports of which some are not easily accessible, since very...... stage in the product life cycle. Another very important difference among the proposals is their position towards the use of generic data. Several of the proposals argue that social impacts are connected to the conduct of the company leading to the conclusion that each individual company in the product...

  16. Assessing species saturation: conceptual and methodological challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivares, Ingrid; Karger, Dirk N; Kessler, Michael

    2018-05-07

    Is there a maximum number of species that can coexist? Intuitively, we assume an upper limit to the number of species in a given assemblage, or that a lineage can produce, but defining and testing this limit has proven problematic. Herein, we first outline seven general challenges of studies on species saturation, most of which are independent of the actual method used to assess saturation. Among these are the challenge of defining saturation conceptually and operationally, the importance of setting an appropriate referential system, and the need to discriminate among patterns, processes and mechanisms. Second, we list and discuss the methodological approaches that have been used to study species saturation. These approaches vary in time and spatial scales, and in the variables and assumptions needed to assess saturation. We argue that assessing species saturation is possible, but that many studies conducted to date have conceptual and methodological flaws that prevent us from currently attaining a good idea of the occurrence of species saturation. © 2018 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  17. Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological Consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Chasdi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A recurring question posed to researchers is whether or not terrorism poses similar degrees of risk as other man-made or natural disasters. There are some specialists, such as John Mueller, who argue that somewhat ironically, the threat of terrorism is vastly exaggerated.[1] This begs the question : compared to what? The underlying aim of this Research Note is to point out some basic methodological and contextual issues to consider, rather than making an attempt to provide hard answers regarding relative individual and collective risks. However, an effort is made to place some empirical findings into appropriate political and social contexts. The framework for discussion includes: basic conceptual problems regarding the notion of “risk”; a comparison of certain basic terrorism incident rates with rates for homicides and illness; and identification of possible future directions to gauge risk assessment within the context of a more holistic systems perspective. 

  18. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  19. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  20. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  2. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  3. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  4. An Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology for Generation IV Nuclear Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leahy, Timothy J.

    2010-01-01

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Risk and Safety Working Group (RSWG) was created to develop an effective approach for the safety of Generation IV advanced nuclear energy systems. Early work of the RSWG focused on defining a safety philosophy founded on lessons learned from current and prior generations of nuclear technologies, and on identifying technology characteristics that may help achieve Generation IV safety goals. More recent RSWG work has focused on the definition of an integrated safety assessment methodology for evaluating the safety of Generation IV systems. The methodology, tentatively called ISAM, is an integrated 'toolkit' consisting of analytical techniques that are available and matched to appropriate stages of Generation IV system concept development. The integrated methodology is intended to yield safety-related insights that help actively drive the evolving design throughout the technology development cycle, potentially resulting in enhanced safety, reduced costs, and shortened development time.

  5. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  6. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  8. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  9. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  10. A proposed methodology for performing risk analysis of state radiation control programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornsife, W.P.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is comprised of viewgraphs from a conference presentation. Topics discussed include barriers to effective risk assessment and management, and real versus perceived risk for various radiation programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Calculation results for Pennsylvania are provided for low-level radioactive waste transportation risks, indoor radon risk, and cancer morbidity risk from x-rays. A methodology for prioritizing radiation regulatory programs based on risk is presented with calculations for various Pennsylvania programs

  11. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Methodology for reliability based condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Y.; Ellingwood, B.

    1993-08-01

    Structures in nuclear power plants may be exposed to aggressive environmental effects that cause their strength to decrease over an extended period of service. A major concern in evaluating the continued service for such structures is to ensure that in their current condition they are able to withstand future extreme load events during the intended service life with a level of reliability sufficient for public safety. This report describes a methodology to facilitate quantitative assessments of current and future structural reliability and performance of structures in nuclear power plants. This methodology takes into account the nature of past and future loads, and randomness in strength and in degradation resulting from environmental factors. An adaptive Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate time-dependent system reliability. The time-dependent reliability is sensitive to the time-varying load characteristics and to the choice of initial strength and strength degradation models but not to correlation in component strengths within a system. Inspection/maintenance strategies are identified that minimize the expected future costs of keeping the failure probability of a structure at or below an established target failure probability during its anticipated service period

  13. On fire risk/methodology for the next generation of reactors and nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, K.C.; Alesso, H.P.; Altenbach, T.J.

    1992-01-01

    Methodologies for including fire in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been evolving during the last ten years. Many of these studies show that fire risk constitutes a significant percentage of external events, as well as the total core damage frequency. This paper summarizes the methodologies used in the fire risk analysis of the next generation of reactors and existing DOE nuclear facilities. Methodologies used in other industries, as well as existing nuclear power plants, are also discussed. Results of fire risk studies for various nuclear plants and facilities are shown and compared

  14. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  15. The methodology of risk perception research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    1998-01-01

    Risk perception is frequently held to be crucial in the understanding and management of risk in policy contexts. The present paper takes as a starting point the notion that risk perception, of the public, of experts and other special groups, is important and hence the question arises how it should be investigated

  16. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  17. Development of assessment methodology for plant configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Chang Hyun; You, Young Woo; Kim, Yoon Ik; Yang, Hui Chang; Huh, Byeong Gill; Lee, Dong Won; Ahn, Gwan Won [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-03-15

    The purpose of this study IS the development of effective and overall assessment methodology which reflects the characteristics of plants for the surveillance, maintenance, repair and operation of nuclear power plants. In this study, recent researches are surveyed and concept definition, procedures, current PSA methodologies, implementation of various models are evaluated. Through this survey, systematic assessment methodology is suggested. Configuration control assessment methodology suggested in this study for the purpose of the development of configuration control methodology reflecting the characteristics of Korean NPPs, can be utilized as the supplement of current PSA methodologies.

  18. A compound methodology to assess the impact of human and organizational factors impact on the risk level of hazardous industrial plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monferini, A.; Konstandinidou, M.; Nivolianitou, Z.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a compound methodology devised to relate Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) to operators’ response time in critical operations within hazardous industrial plants. The methodology has been based on a sensitivity analysis of the nine “families” of the Common Performance Con...... with the variation of one CPC at a time aiming at the detection and containment operation of a gas leakage in a pressure-reduction NG terminal. The whole case study has been run within the framework of the VIRTHUALIS EU project....

  19. Comparative proteomic assessment of matrisome enrichment methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasny, Lukas; Paul, Angela; Wai, Patty; Howard, Beatrice A.; Natrajan, Rachael C.; Huang, Paul H.

    2016-01-01

    The matrisome is a complex and heterogeneous collection of extracellular matrix (ECM) and ECM-associated proteins that play important roles in tissue development and homeostasis. While several strategies for matrisome enrichment have been developed, it is currently unknown how the performance of these different methodologies compares in the proteomic identification of matrisome components across multiple tissue types. In the present study, we perform a comparative proteomic assessment of two widely used decellularisation protocols and two extraction methods to characterise the matrisome in four murine organs (heart, mammary gland, lung and liver). We undertook a systematic evaluation of the performance of the individual methods on protein yield, matrisome enrichment capability and the ability to isolate core matrisome and matrisome-associated components. Our data find that sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) decellularisation leads to the highest matrisome enrichment efficiency, while the extraction protocol that comprises chemical and trypsin digestion of the ECM fraction consistently identifies the highest number of matrisomal proteins across all types of tissue examined. Matrisome enrichment had a clear benefit over non-enriched tissue for the comprehensive identification of matrisomal components in murine liver and heart. Strikingly, we find that all four matrisome enrichment methods led to significant losses in the soluble matrisome-associated proteins across all organs. Our findings highlight the multiple factors (including tissue type, matrisome class of interest and desired enrichment purity) that influence the choice of enrichment methodology, and we anticipate that these data will serve as a useful guide for the design of future proteomic studies of the matrisome. PMID:27589945

  20. Usefulness of alternative integrative assessment methodologies in public decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, L. E.; Litchfield, J. W.; Currie, J. W.; McDonald, C. L.; Adams, R. C.

    1978-07-01

    Many diverse social, economic, and environmental effects are associated with each of the available energy development alternatives. The assessment of the costs, risks, and benefits of these energy development options is an important function of the U. S. Department of Energy. This task is more difficult when no single alternative is better than the others in all respects. This paper compares benefit-cost and multi-attribute utility analysis as decision aids for these more difficult and more common assessment cases. PNL has developed expertise in making these assessments through its involvement since the Calvert Cliffs decision in both the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements and the development of methods to make these statements more thorough and responsive to the spirit of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). Since 1973 PNL has had continuing efforts to quantify, value, and compare all of the major factors which influence the overall impacts of energy development options. An important part of this work has been the measurement and incorporation of the relative values which community groups place on these conflicting factors. Such difficult assessment problems could be approached in many ways including the use of benefit-cost or multi-attribute utility analysis. This paper addresses the following questions: (1) Should an integrative assessment methodology be used for the overall assessment of these costs, risks, and benefits. (2) If an integrative assessment methodology is to be used, what alternative methods are available and what should be the basis for selecting a method. (3) Is it possible to use one of the available alternatives for one portion of the assessment and another for another portion of the assessment. The answers to these questions presented in this report are applicable to most public decision problems.

  1. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  2. Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.

    2014-02-01

    IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)

  3. Evaluation and assessment of nuclear power plant seismic methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernreuter, D.; Tokarz, F.; Wight, L.; Smith, P.; Wells, J.; Barlow, R.

    1977-03-01

    The major emphasis of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to assess the current methods used for assuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The proposed methodology makes use of system-analysis techniques and Monte Carlo schemes. Also, in this study, we evaluate previous assessments of the current seismic-design methodology.

  4. Evaluation and assessment of nuclear power plant seismic methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.; Tokarz, F.; Wight, L.; Smith, P.; Wells, J.; Barlow, R.

    1977-01-01

    The major emphasis of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to assess the current methods used for assuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The proposed methodology makes use of system-analysis techniques and Monte Carlo schemes. Also, in this study, we evaluate previous assessments of the current seismic-design methodology

  5. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  6. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  7. Methodology to assess coastal infrastructure resilience to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roca Marta

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve the resilience of the line, several options have been considered to evaluate and reduce climate change impacts to the railway. This paper describes the methodological approach developed to evaluate the risks of flooding for a range of scenarios in the estuary and open coast reaches of the line. Components to derive the present day and future climate change coastal conditions including some possible adaptation measures are also presented together with the results of the hindcasting analysis to assess the performance of the modelling system. An overview of the modelling results obtained to support the development of a long-term Resilience Strategy for asset management is also discussed.

  8. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  9. Development of assessment methodology for plant configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheong, Chang Hyeon; Yu, Yeong Woo; Cho, Jae Seon; Kim, Ju Yeol; Kim, Yun Ik; Yang, Hui Chang; Park, Gang Min; Hur, Byeong Gil [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    The purpose of this study is the development of effective and overall assessment methodology which reflects the characteristics of plants for the surveillance, maintenance, repair and operation of Nuclear Power Plant. The development of this methodology can contribute to enhance safety. In the first year of this study, recent researches are surveyed and concept definition, procedures, current PSA methodologies, implementation of various models are evaluated. Through this survey, systematic assessment methodology is suggested.

  10. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  11. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  12. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  13. Methodological approaches to assessing of country’s financial capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.Yu. Polchanov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This research is devoted to the theoretical basis of country’s financial capacity assessment, its specificities and algorithm. The aim of the investigation is the generalization of methodological approaches to evaluating country’s financial capacity. The author determines that the assessment involves preparatory, analytical, and final stages. The special attention is paid to the information based on the analysis, demands on it, impact of changes in methodology, dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The establishment of the united analytical center for assessment of financial capacity of the state for post-conflict recovery is proposed. The results of the critical review of the publications in this field have helped to improve the classification of country’s financial capacity assessment methods by providing some new attributes such as the focus of the evaluation and type of intelligence. The problem of using unlicensed software to assess the financial capacity of the state and the associated risk have not been left without attention.

  14. Insights from implementation of a risk management methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahn, J.A.; Germann, R.P.; Jacobs, R.R.

    1992-01-01

    In 1988, GPU Nuclear (GPUN) Corporation embarked on a research effort to identify or develop an appropriate methodology for proactively managing risks. The objective of this effort was to increase its ability to identify potential risks and to aid resource allocation decision making for risk control. Such a methodology was presented at a risk management symposium sponsored by GPUN in September of 1989. A pilot project based on this methodology has been conducted at GPUN to test and validate the elements of the methodology and to compare the results of its application with current corporate methods for guiding risk decision making. The pilot project also led to a follow-up policy-capturing study to elicit information about the various risk decision-making models of GPUN decision makers. The combination of these endeavors provided an opportunity to gain numerous insights with respect to understanding the real value of a risk management process, obtaining acceptance of and commitment to risk management and improving operational aspects of the methodology

  15. Optimizing Caffeine Use and Risk of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Application of Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakvasa, Mitali Atul; Saroha, Vivek; Patel, Ravi Mangal

    2018-06-01

    Caffeine reduces the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Optimizing caffeine use could increase therapeutic benefit. We performed a systematic-review and random-effects meta-analysis of studies comparing different timing of initiation and dose of caffeine on the risk of BPD. Earlier initiation, compared to later, was associated with a decreased risk of BPD (5 observational studies; n = 63,049, adjusted OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.64-0.75, GRADE: low quality). High-dose caffeine, compared to standard-dose, was associated with a decreased risk of BPD (3 randomized trials, n = 432, OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43-0.97; GRADE: low quality). Higher quality evidence is needed to guide optimal caffeine use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  17. New methodology to quantify risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munera, H.A.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1980-01-01

    A novel approach for establishing acceptability of risk is presented and illustrated by an application to the case of the light water reactors. The advantage of the method is that it takes into consideration the shape of the probability distribution function over consequences, instead of simply using the expected value of this distribution. 25 refs

  18. Recommendations related to the strategic environmental assessment. Methodological note

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bris, Charlotte; Brivadier, Isabelle; Fournie, Sebastien; Godart, Angelique; Hubert, Severine; Ille, Yann-Mikiel; Le Mitouard, Eric; Phelep, Michele; Delduc, Paul; Poitevin, Florent; Lemaitre, Valery; Bataille, Tristan; Noulin, Alice; Fevre, Cecile; Kervella, Frederic; Orefici, Christine; Rambaud, Lucile; Antoine, Stephanie; Wormser, Veronique; Garrigou, Olivier; Vinay, Catherine; Cretin, Benedicte; Le Saout, Michaele; Pagnucco, Fabrice; Meinier, Yves; Nicolas, Veronique; Thiolliere, Blandine; Guilbert, Sebastien; Billant, Claude; Saingenest, Patrick

    2015-05-01

    This methodological note aims at giving commissioners and project managers of plans, schemes and programmes or other planning documents related to strategic environmental assessment a comprehensive vision of the approach to be adopted, as well as useful advices and operational recommendations. The first part recalls the main principles of environmental assessment, addresses general issues of organisation of the approach, and clarifies its articulation with the plan/scheme/programme elaboration or other approaches such as the assessment of incidences on the Natura 2000 network. The second part addresses the different chapters which are foreseen by the regulation for the environmental report. Some sheets are proposed on SDAGEs (Water Development and Management Master Plans) and PGIRs (flood risk management plans), on SRCs (quarry regional plan) and SAGEs (Water Development and Management Scheme)

  19. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  20. Assessment of risk associated with exposure to tobacco and alcohol on health of the cadets of military institute and its prevention methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М.Sh. Belikova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The work is devoted to the studies of the problem of smoking and alcohol use among cadets of military institute as well as to the risk of diseases’ developing when using nicotine and alcohol. We have proposed the methods for solving this problem in the educational institution. This article describes not only the problem among the cadets of military institute, but also the calculated risks. Particular attention is paid to the study of the methods of controlling the bad habits in the educational institution and reduction of the number of smokers and drinkers among the cadets.

  1. Methodology of nanotechnogy's risks analysis for health and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkulova, I.P.

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment is a multidisciplinary field, and an important tool for understanding and managing the potential risks from nanotechnologies. As new technologies develop, a crucial task is to understand the health and environmental impacts and to identify potential risks. (authors)

  2. IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) Project for Regulated Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) is a coordinate research project. The objectives of the NUSAM project is to establish a risk informed, performance-based methodological framework in a systematic, structured, comprehensive and appropriately transparent manner; to provide an environment for the sharing and transfer of knowledge and experience; and to provide guidance on, and practical examples of good practices in assessing the security of nuclear and other radioactive materials, as well as associated facilities and activities. The author worked as an IAEA scientific secretary of the NUAM project from 2013 to 2015. IAEA launched this project in 2013 and performed many activities: meetings, document development, table-top exercises and computer simulations. Now the project is in the final stage and will be concluded in the late 2016. The project will produce documents on NUSAM assessment methods and case study documents on NPP, Irradiator Facility and Transport. South Korea as a main contributor to this project will get benefits from the NUSAM. In 2014, South Korea introduced force-on-force exercises, which could be used as the assessment of physical protection system by the methods of NUSAM

  3. IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) Project for Regulated Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Sung Soon [Korea Nuclear Non-proliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) is a coordinate research project. The objectives of the NUSAM project is to establish a risk informed, performance-based methodological framework in a systematic, structured, comprehensive and appropriately transparent manner; to provide an environment for the sharing and transfer of knowledge and experience; and to provide guidance on, and practical examples of good practices in assessing the security of nuclear and other radioactive materials, as well as associated facilities and activities. The author worked as an IAEA scientific secretary of the NUAM project from 2013 to 2015. IAEA launched this project in 2013 and performed many activities: meetings, document development, table-top exercises and computer simulations. Now the project is in the final stage and will be concluded in the late 2016. The project will produce documents on NUSAM assessment methods and case study documents on NPP, Irradiator Facility and Transport. South Korea as a main contributor to this project will get benefits from the NUSAM. In 2014, South Korea introduced force-on-force exercises, which could be used as the assessment of physical protection system by the methods of NUSAM.

  4. A Methodology for Assessing Software Releasibility

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kochan, Matthew

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis proposes a new methodology which addresses this tradeoff. The term "releasable" Software is introduced as a product which demonstrates a fault content acceptable to users in the field...

  5. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  7. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  9. Automated remedial assessment methodology software system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whiting, M.; Wilkins, M.; Stiles, D.

    1994-11-01

    The Automated Remedial Analysis Methodology (ARAM) software system has been developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to assist the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in evaluating cleanup options for over 10,000 contaminated sites across the DOE complex. The automated methodology comprises modules for decision logic diagrams, technology applicability and effectiveness rules, mass balance equations, cost and labor estimating factors and equations, and contaminant stream routing. ARAM is used to select technologies for meeting cleanup targets; determine the effectiveness of the technologies in destroying, removing, or immobilizing contaminants; decide the nature and amount of secondary waste requiring further treatment; and estimate the cost and labor involved when applying technologies

  10. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  11. Developing new methodology for nuclear power plants vulnerability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostadinov, Venceslav

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Paper presents new methodology for vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants. → First universal quantitative risks assessment model for terrorist attack on a NPPs. → New model enhance security, reliability and safe operation of all energy infrastructure. → Significant research benefits: increased NPPs security, reliability and availability. → Useful new tool for PRA application to evaluation of terrorist threats on NPPs. - Abstract: The fundamental aim of an efficient regulatory emergency preparedness and response system is to provide sustained emergency readiness and to prevent emergency situations and accidents. But when an event occurs, the regulatory mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect people and the environment against nuclear and radiological damage. The regulatory emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of a nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive national regulatory system of nuclear and radiation safety. In the past, national emergency systems explicitly did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as an important part of a comprehensive preparedness framework. But after the huge terrorist attack on 11/09/2001, decision-makers became aware that critical nuclear infrastructure could also be an attractive target to terrorism, with the purpose of using the physical and radioactive properties of the nuclear material to cause mass casualties, property damage, and detrimental economic and/or environmental impacts. The necessity to evaluate critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human errors, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as preparation of emergency response plans with estimation of optimized costs, are of vital importance for assurance of safe nuclear facilities operation and national security. In this paper presented

  12. A Methodology for Anatomic Ultrasound Image Diagnostic Quality Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hemmsen, Martin Christian; Lange, Theis; Brandt, Andreas Hjelm

    2017-01-01

    are presented. Earlier uses of the methodology has shown that it ensures validity of the assessment, as it separates the influences between developer, investigator, and assessor once a research protocol has been established. This separation reduces confounding influences on the result from the developer......This paper discusses methods for assessment of ultrasound image quality based on our experiences with evaluating new methods for anatomic imaging. It presents a methodology to ensure a fair assessment between competing imaging methods using clinically relevant evaluations. The methodology...... to properly reveal the clinical value. The paper exemplifies the methodology using recent studies of Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming tissue harmonic imaging....

  13. Enhancing the seismic margin review methodology to obtain risk insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses methods for obtaining risk insights from the seismic margin review (SMR) methodology. The SMR methodology was originally developed in 1984-1987 with the objective of analyzing an individual nuclear power plant to ascertain whether the plant has the ability to withstand earthquakes substantially beyond the design-basis earthquake without suffering a core-damage accident. Recently, in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Individual Plant Evaluation for External Events (IPEEE) program, the SMR methodology has been developed further by NRC to allow plants to identify plant-specific vulnerabilities (in the IPEEE sense) to seismic events. The objective of these enhancements has been to provide a methodology for IPEEE seismic review that is substantially less expensive than a full-scope seismic PRA, but that achieves the IPEEE's vulnerability-search objectives. In this paper, the steps involved in the enhanced methodology are discussed

  14. Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, R.G.

    1980-01-01

    Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria

  15. Employee Turnover: An Empirical and Methodological Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchinsky, Paul M.; Tuttle, Mark L.

    1979-01-01

    Reviews research on the prediction of employee turnover. Groups predictor variables into five general categories: attitudinal (job satisfaction), biodata, work-related, personal, and test-score predictors. Consistent relationships between common predictor variables and turnover were found for four categories. Eight methodological problems/issues…

  16. Methodology for Environmental Impact Assessment; Metodik foer miljoekonsekvensbedoemning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malmlund, Anna (Structor Miljoebyraan Stockholm AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is an appendix to 'Environmental Impact Assessment Interim storage, encapsulation and disposal of spent nuclear fuel'. The appendix presents the methodology and criteria used in support investigations to conduct impact assessments.

  17. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  18. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  19. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  20. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  1. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  2. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  3. Safety assessment methodology for waste repositories in deep geological formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapuis, A.M.; Lewi, J.; Pradel, J.; Queniart, D.; Raimbault, P.; Assouline, M.

    1986-06-01

    The long term safety of a nuclear waste repository relies on the evaluation of the doses which could be transferred to man in the future. This implies a detailed knowledge of the medium where the waste will be confined, the identification of the basic phenomena which govern the migration of the radionuclides and the investigation of all possible scenarios that may affect the integrity of the barriers between the waste and the biosphere. Inside the Institute of protection and nuclear safety of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/IPSN), the Department of the Safety Analysis (DAS) is currently developing a methodology for assessing the safety of future geological waste repositories, and is in charge of the modelling development, while the Department of Technical Protection (DPT) is in charge of the geological experimental studies. Both aspects of this program are presented. The methodology for risk assessment stresses the needs for coordination between data acquisition and model development which should result in the obtention of an efficient tool for safety evaluation. Progress needs to be made in source and geosphere modelling. Much more sophisticated models could be used than the ones which is described; however sensitivity analysis will determine the level of sophistication which is necessary to implement. Participation to international validation programs are also very important for gaining confidence in the approaches which have been chosen

  4. Proposal of an integrated methodology for environmental assessment of risks and impacts to be used in strategic environmental assessment studies for the oil and natural gas sector in offshore areas; Proposta de metodologia de avaliacao integrada de riscos e impactos ambientais para estudos de avaliacao ambiental estrategica do setor de petroleo e gas natural em areas offshore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariano, Jacqueline Barboza

    2007-03-15

    This thesis aims to purpose an integrated methodology of environmental risk and impact assessment of the exploration and production oil and natural gas activities, to be used in strategic environmental assessment studies. It also analyzes the environmental issues associated with the upstream segment of the Brazilian oil and natural gas industry after the market opening, occurred in 1997. In this context, and under the international experience of countries that also have an open market, the strategic environmental assessment demonstrates to be the more suitable tool of public environmental management to consider the environment already during the planning phase of the oil and natural gas sector. (author)

  5. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  6. Risk management methodology applied at thermal power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppolino, R.

    2007-01-01

    Nowadays, the responsibility of the environmental risks, connected the productive processes and to the products of an enterprise, represent one of the main aspects which an adequate management approach has to foresee. In this paper it has been evaluated the guidelines followed by Edipower Thermoelectric Power plant of S. Filippo di Mela (ME). These guidelines were given in order to manage the chemical risk connected to the usage of various chemicals with which the workers get in touch when identifying the risks of the methodology introduced by the AZ/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management Standard

  7. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  8. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  9. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  10. Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    WSTAT). In the early stages of the V&V for development risk, it was discovered that the original risk rating and methodology did not actually...4932 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT ...WSTA has opened trade space exploration by allowing the tool to evaluate trillions of potential system configurations to then return a handful of

  11. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  12. A performance assessment methodology for low-level waste facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozak, M.W.; Chu, M.S.Y.; Mattingly, P.A.

    1990-07-01

    A performance assessment methodology has been developed for use by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in evaluating license applications for low-level waste disposal facilities. This report provides a summary of background reports on the development of the methodology and an overview of the models and codes selected for the methodology. The overview includes discussions of the philosophy and structure of the methodology and a sequential procedure for applying the methodology. Discussions are provided of models and associated assumptions that are appropriate for each phase of the methodology, the goals of each phase, data required to implement the models, significant sources of uncertainty associated with each phase, and the computer codes used to implement the appropriate models. In addition, a sample demonstration of the methodology is presented for a simple conceptual model. 64 refs., 12 figs., 15 tabs

  13. Methodology of impact assessment of research projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Cardona, R.; Cobas Aranda, M.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the management of research projects development it is necessary to have tools to monitor and evaluate progress and the performance of the projects, as well as their results and the impact on society (international agencies of the United Nations and the States 2002 and 2005 Paris Declaration), with the objective of to ensure their contribution to the social and economic development of countries. Many organizations, agencies and Governments apply different methodologies (IDB, World Bank, UNDP, ECLAC, UNESCO; UNICEF, Canada, Japan, other) for these purposes. In the results-based project management system not only paramount is the process or product itself, but also the result or impact of the project (if the program/project produced the effects desired persons, households and institutions and whether those effects are attributable to the intervention of the program / project). The work shows a methodology that allows for a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of impact of research projects and has been result of experience in project management of international collaboration with the International Agency for Atomic Energy (IAEA) and the Cuban Nuclear programme. (author)

  14. Methodologic assessment of radiation epidemiology studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beebe, G.W.

    1983-01-01

    Epidemiologic studies of the late effects of ionizing radiation have utilized the entire spectrum of situations in which man has been exposed. These studies have provided insights into the dependence of human effects upon not only dose to target tissues but also other dimensions of exposure, host characteristics, and time following exposure. Over the past three decades studies have progressed from the mere identification of effects to their measurement. Because investigators of human effects have no control over the exposure situation, validity must be sought in the consistency of findings among independent studies and with accepted biologic principles. Because exposure may be confounded with factors that are hidden from view, bias may enter into any study of human exposure. Avoidance of bias and attainment of sufficient power to detect relationships that are real are methodologic challenges. Many methodologic issues, e.g., those associated with the definition and measurement of specific end-points, or with the selection of appropriate controls, permeate epidemiologic work in all fields. Others, especially those concerned with the measurement of exposure, the patterning of events in time after exposure, and the prediction of events beyond the scope of existing observations give radiation epidemiology its distinctive character

  15. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  16. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  17. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  18. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Marques-Perez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  19. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-09-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  20. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  1. METHODOLOGY OF REGIONAL GOVERNANCE QUALITY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Soboleva

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The definition of influence factors on economic development of the region remains today the most important issue that will choose the most effective direction of investment, and will allow identifying the highest risks to the realization of actions directed on development of territories.

  2. A Methodology for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco

    2008-01-01

    Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the places of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system

  3. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  4. Methodology for reliability, economic and environmental assessment of wave energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorpe, T.W.; Muirhead, S.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Preliminary Actions in Wave Energy R and D for DG XII's Joule programme, methodologies were developed to facilitate assessment of the reliability, economics and environmental impact of wave energy. This paper outlines these methodologies, their limitations and areas requiring further R and D. (author)

  5. An assessment methodology for developing countries

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    life-cycle assessment approach and an expanded definition of sustainability, which includes social and .... environmental and life-cycle costs of different material and building assembly options. ..... The Living Planet Report. Gland,. Switzerland: ...

  6. THE METHODOLOGY OF VALORISING AND ASSESSING LANDSCAPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Jacek Bacior

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Landscape evaluation process requires access to particular information resources making it possible to regionalize (divide into zones the area under investigation. Thus, the starting point is landscape assessment and evaluation followed by regionalization. As a result of this step, we determine certain areas that are homogenous with regards to their landscape assets Keywords: assessing landscape, structure of rural areas, spatial planning of rural areas.

  7. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  8. Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

    2013-01-01

    The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

  9. Improved USGS methodology for assessing continuous petroleum resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents an improved methodology for estimating volumes of continuous (unconventional) oil and gas resources within the United States and around the world. The methodology is based on previously developed U.S. Geological Survey methodologies that rely on well-scale production data. Improvements were made primarily to how the uncertainty about estimated ultimate recoveries is incorporated in the estimates. This is particularly important when assessing areas with sparse or no production data, because the new methodology allows better use of analog data from areas with significant discovery histories.

  10. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  11. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  12. Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batandjieva, B.; Torres-Vidal, C.

    2002-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated research program ''Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities'' (ISAM) has developed improved safety assessment methodology for near surface disposal facilities. The program has been underway for three years and has included around 75 active participants from 40 countries. It has also provided examples for application to three safety cases--vault, Radon type and borehole radioactive waste disposal facilities. The program has served as an excellent forum for exchange of information and good practices on safety assessment approaches and methodologies used worldwide. It also provided an opportunity for reaching broad consensus on the safety assessment methodologies to be applied to near surface low and intermediate level waste repositories. The methodology has found widespread acceptance and the need for its application on real waste disposal facilities has been clearly identified. The ISAM was finalized by the end of 2000, working material documents are available and an IAEA report will be published in 2002 summarizing the work performed during the three years of the program. The outcome of the ISAM program provides a sound basis for moving forward to a new IAEA program, which will focus on practical application of the safety assessment methodologies to different purposes, such as licensing radioactive waste repositories, development of design concepts, upgrading existing facilities, reassessment of operating repositories, etc. The new program will also provide an opportunity for development of guidance on application of the methodology that will be of assistance to both safety assessors and regulators

  13. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  14. Methodological approaches to the assessment level of social responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Vorona, E.

    2010-01-01

    A study of current approaches to assessing the level of social responsibility. Proposed methodological approach to evaluating the performance of the social responsibility of railway transport. Conceptual Basis of social reporting in rail transport.

  15. Selection of methodology to assess food intake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biró, G.; Hulshof, K.F.A.M.; Ovesen, L.; Amorim Cruz, J.A.

    2002-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the EFCOSUM project was to develop a method to estimate both acute and usual consumption levels in European countries and for the sake of comparison, a common basic method for dietary assessment was needed. The method should allow a reliable comparison of the intake of relevant

  16. Assessment methodology for air defence control systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In Command and Control, humans have to make sense of the situation to support decision making on the required action. Development of an Air Defence Control system through a Systems Engineering process starts with assessment of existing systems...

  17. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  18. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  19. Legal basis for risk analysis methodology while ensuring food safety in the Eurasian Economic union and the Republic of Belarus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Fedorenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Health risk analysis methodology is an internationally recognized tool for ensuring food safety. Three main elements of risk analysis are risk assessment, risk management and risk communication to inform the interested parties on the risk, are legislated and implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Republic of Belarus. There is a corresponding organizational and functional framework for the application of risk analysis methodology as in the justification of production safety indicators and the implementation of public health surveillance. Common methodological approaches and criteria for evaluating public health risk are determined, which are used in the development and application of food safety requirements. Risk assessment can be used in justifying the indicators of safety (contaminants, food additives, and evaluating the effectiveness of programs on enrichment of food with micronutrients.

  20. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  1. Current status and new trends in the methodology of safety assessment for near surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilie, Petre; Didita, Liana; Danchiv, Alexandru

    2008-01-01

    The main goal of this paper is to present the status of the safety assessment methodology at the end of IAEA CRP 'Application of Safety Assessment Methodology for Near-Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities (ASAM)', and the new trends outlined at the launch of the follow-up project 'Practical Implementation of Safety Assessment Methodologies in a Context of Safety Case of Near-Surface Facilities (PRISM)'. Over the duration of the ASAM project, the ISAM methodology was confirmed as providing a good framework for conducting safety assessment calculations. In contrast, ASAM project identified the limitations of the ISAM methodology as currently formulated. The major limitations are situated in the area of the use of safety assessment for informing practical decisions about alternative waste and risk management strategies for real disposal sites. As a result of the limitation of the ISAM methodology, the PRISM project is established as an extension of the ISAM and ASAM projects. Based on the outcomes of the ASAM project, the main objective of the PRISM project are: 1 - to develop an overview of what constitutes an adequate safety case and safety assessment with a view to supporting decision making processes; 2 - to provide practical illustrations of how the safety assessment methodology could be used for addressing some specific issues arising from the ASAM project and national cases; 3 - to support harmonization with the IAEA's international safety standards. (authors)

  2. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  3. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  4. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  5. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  6. Risk management in methodologies of information technology and communications projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Carrillo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2013/10/02 - Accepted: 2013/12/13At present there are methodologies that have several alternatives and methods to manage projects of Information and Communication Technologies. However, these do not cover a solution for the technology events that can occur in the industry, government, education, among others. In the technology market there are several models to identify and analyze risks according to relevant aspects of their area of specialty e.g. projects, in software development, communications, information security and business alignment. For this reason, this research conducted an evaluation of risk management activities of the methodologies used mostly to know which of them includes more correspondence with basic elements of IT using a rating scale.

  7. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  8. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  9. Screening methodology for assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fradkin, L.; Bruins, R.J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e., facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium.

  10. Screening methodology for assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fradkin, L.; Bruins, R.J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.; Rubin, A.

    1987-04-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment of methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e. facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium. (Refs. 5).

  11. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  12. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  13. The methodology of environmental impacts assessment of environmentally hazardous facilities

    OpenAIRE

    Adamenko, Yaroslav

    2017-01-01

    The article deals with the methodology of environmental impacts assessment of environmentally hazardous facilities and activities. The stages of evaluation of environmental impacts are proved. The algorithm and technology of decision-making in the system of environmental impact assessments based on a multi-criteria utility theory are proposed.

  14. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  15. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  16. Methodology of safety assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuzuru, Hideo; Kimura, Hideo

    1991-01-01

    The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) is conducting an extensive R and D program to develop a safety assessment methodology to evaluate environmental consequences associated with geological disposal of a high-level radioactive waste, and also to elucidate a generic feasibility of the geological disposal in Japan. The paper describes the current R and D activities in the JAERI to develop an interim version of the methodology based on a normal evolution scenario, and also to validate models used in the methodology. (author)

  17. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  18. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    , helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

  19. Guidance on the Technology Performance Level (TPL) Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Babarit, Aurelien [Ecole Centrale de Nantes (France). Lab. of Research in Hydrodynamics, Energetics and Atmospheric Environment (LHEEA); Costello, Ronan [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neilson, Kim [Ramboll, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bittencourt, Claudio [DNV GL, London (United Kingdom); Kennedy, Ben [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom); Malins, Robert Joseph [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dykes, Katherine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This document presents the revised Technology Performance Level (TPL) assessment methodology. There are three parts to this revised methodology 1) the Stakeholder Needs and Assessment Guidance (this document), 2) the Technical Submission form, 3) the TPL scoring spreadsheet. The TPL assessment is designed to give a technology neutral or agnostic assessment of any wave energy converter technology. The focus of the TPL is on the performance of the technology in meeting the customer’s needs. The original TPL is described in [1, 2] and those references also detail the critical differences in the nature of the TPL when compared to the more widely used technology readiness level (TRL). (Wave energy TRL is described in [3]). The revised TPL is particularly intended to be useful to investors and also to assist technology developers to conduct comprehensive assessments in a way that is meaningful and attractive to investors. The revised TPL assessment methodology has been derived through a structured Systems Engineering approach. This was a formal process which involved analyzing customer and stakeholder needs through the discipline of Systems Engineering. The results of the process confirmed the high level of completeness of the original methodology presented in [1] (as used in the Wave Energy Prize judging) and now add a significantly increased level of detail in the assessment and an improved more investment focused structure. The revised TPL also incorporates the feedback of the Wave Energy Prize judges.

  20. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  2. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  3. Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; El-Bassioni, A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed

  4. Application of the integrated safety assessment methodology to the protection of electric systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hortal, Javier; Izquierdo, Jose M.

    1996-01-01

    The generalization of classical techniques for risk assessment incorporating dynamic effects is the main objective of the Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology, as practical implementation of Protection Theory. Transient stability, contingency analysis and protection setpoint verification in electric power systems are particularly appropriate domains of application, since the coupling of reliability and dynamic analysis in the protection assessment process is being increasingly demanded. Suitable techniques for dynamic simulation of sequences of switching events in power systems are derived from the use of quasi-linear equation solution algorithms. The application of the methodology, step by step, is illustrated in a simple but representative example

  5. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  6. Hybrid probabilistic and possibilistic safety assessment. Methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Kazuyuki; Amano, Osamu; Ueda, Hiroyoshi; Ikeda, Takao; Yoshida, Hideji; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a unified methodology to handle variability and ignorance by using probabilistic and possibilistic techniques respectively. The methodology has been applied to the safety assessment of geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Uncertainties associated with scenarios, models and parameters were defined in terms of fuzzy membership functions derived through a series of interviews to the experts, while variability was formulated by means of probability density functions (pdfs) based on available data sets. The exercise demonstrated the applicability of the new methodology and, in particular, its advantage in quantifying uncertainties based on expert opinion and in providing information on the dependence of assessment results on the level of conservatism. In addition, it was shown that sensitivity analysis can identify key parameters contributing to uncertainties associated with results of the overall assessment. The information mentioned above can be utilized to support decision-making and to guide the process of disposal system development and optimization of protection against potential exposure. (author)

  7. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  8. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  9. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  10. The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.T.

    1998-01-01

    Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

  11. A reliability assessment methodology for the VHTR passive safety system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyungsuk; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The passive safety system of a VHTR (Very High Temperature Reactor), which has recently attracted worldwide attention, is currently being considered for the design of safety improvements for the next generation of nuclear power plants in Korea. The functionality of the passive system does not rely on an external source of an electrical support system, but on the intelligent use of natural phenomena. Its function involves an ultimate heat sink for a passive secondary auxiliary cooling system, especially during a station blackout such as the case of the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accidents. However, it is not easy to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of passive safety for the purpose of risk analysis, considering the existing active system failure since the classical reliability assessment method cannot be applied. Therefore, we present a new methodology to quantify the reliability based on reliability physics models. This evaluation framework is then applied to of the conceptually designed VHTR in Korea. The Response Surface Method (RSM) is also utilized for evaluating the uncertainty of the maximum temperature of nuclear fuel. The proposed method could contribute to evaluating accident sequence frequency and designing new innovative nuclear systems, such as the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) in VHTR to be designed and constructed in Korea.

  12. Pipeline external corrosion direct assessment methodology: lessons learned - part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kowalski, Angel R. [DNV Columbus, Inc., OH (United States)

    2009-07-01

    DNV Columbus (Former CC Technologies) played a key role in the development of Direct Assessment (DA) methodologies, providing leadership in the NACE technical committees charged with development of DA standards. Since the first publication of NACE Standard RP-0502-2002, External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) has been successfully applied over a great number of pipelines to evaluate the impact of external corrosion on the pipeline integrity. This paper summarizes the results of applying ECDA over a selected number of underground pipelines and presents interesting facts about the methodology. (author)

  13. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  14. A Methodology To Incorporate The Safety Culture Into Probabilistic Safety Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Sunghyun; Kim, Namyeong; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In order to incorporate organizational factors into PSA, a methodology needs to be developed. Using the AHP to weigh organizational factors as well as the SLIM to rate those factors, a methodology is introduced in this study. The safety issues related to nuclear safety culture have occurred increasingly. The quantification tool has to be developed in order to include the organizational factor into Probabilistic Safety Assessments. In this study, the state-of-the-art for the organizational evaluation methodologies has been surveyed. This study includes the research for organizational factors, maintenance process, maintenance process analysis models, a quantitative methodology using Analytic Hierarchy Process, Success Likelihood Index Methodology. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology to incorporate the safety culture into PSA for obtaining more objective risk than before. The organizational factor considered in nuclear safety culture might affect the potential risk of human error and hardware-failure. The safety culture impact index to monitor the plant safety culture can be assessed by applying the developed methodology into a nuclear power plant.

  15. A Methodology To Incorporate The Safety Culture Into Probabilistic Safety Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sunghyun; Kim, Namyeong; Jae, Moosung

    2015-01-01

    In order to incorporate organizational factors into PSA, a methodology needs to be developed. Using the AHP to weigh organizational factors as well as the SLIM to rate those factors, a methodology is introduced in this study. The safety issues related to nuclear safety culture have occurred increasingly. The quantification tool has to be developed in order to include the organizational factor into Probabilistic Safety Assessments. In this study, the state-of-the-art for the organizational evaluation methodologies has been surveyed. This study includes the research for organizational factors, maintenance process, maintenance process analysis models, a quantitative methodology using Analytic Hierarchy Process, Success Likelihood Index Methodology. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology to incorporate the safety culture into PSA for obtaining more objective risk than before. The organizational factor considered in nuclear safety culture might affect the potential risk of human error and hardware-failure. The safety culture impact index to monitor the plant safety culture can be assessed by applying the developed methodology into a nuclear power plant

  16. A methodology to assess the economic impact of power storage technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Ghandour, Laila; Johnson, Timothy C

    2017-08-13

    We present a methodology for assessing the economic impact of power storage technologies. The methodology is founded on classical approaches to the optimal stopping of stochastic processes but involves an innovation that circumvents the need to, ex ante , identify the form of a driving process and works directly on observed data, avoiding model risks. Power storage is regarded as a complement to the intermittent output of renewable energy generators and is therefore important in contributing to the reduction of carbon-intensive power generation. Our aim is to present a methodology suitable for use by policy makers that is simple to maintain, adaptable to different technologies and easy to interpret. The methodology has benefits over current techniques and is able to value, by identifying a viable optimal operational strategy, a conceived storage facility based on compressed air technology operating in the UK.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Regional issue identification and assessment: study methodology. First annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    The overall assessment methodologies and models utilized for the first project under the Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program are described. Detailed descriptions are given of the methodologies used by lead laboratories for the quantification of the impacts of an energy scenario on one or more media (e.g., air, water, land, human and ecology), and by all laboratories to assess the regional impacts on all media. The research and assessments reflected in this document were performed by the following national laboratories: Argonne National Laboratory; Brookhaven National Laboratory; Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory; Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. This report contains five chapters. Chapter 1 briefly describes the overall study methodology and introduces the technical participants. Chapter 2 is a summary of the energy policy scenario selected for the RIIA I study and Chapter 3 describes how this scenario was translated into a county-level siting pattern of energy development. The fourth chapter is a detailed description of the individual methodologies used to quantify the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the scenario while Chapter 5 describes how these impacts were translated into comprehensive regional assessments for each Federal Region.

  18. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. ArgueSecure: Out-of-the-box Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Kegel, Roeland Hendrik,Pieter; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Baltuta, Andrei

    Most established security risk assessment methodologies aim to produce ranked lists of risks. But ranking requires quantification of risks, which in turn relies on data which may not be available or estimations which might not be accurate. As an alternative, we have previously proposed

  20. Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foppe, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

  1. ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Crespo Martínez

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

  2. Environmental impact assessment for energy pathways: an integrated methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommereux-Blanc, Isabelle

    2010-01-01

    This document presents the synthesis of my research work contributing to the development of an integrated methodology of environmental impact assessment for energy pathways. In the context of world globalization, environmental impact assessments issues are highly linked with the following questioning: Which environmental impacts? for which demand? at which location? at which temporal scale? My work is built upon the definition of a conceptual framework able to handle these issues and upon its progressive implementation. The integration of the spatial and temporal issues within the methodology are key elements. Fundamental cornerstones of this framework are presented along the DPSIR concept (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses). They cover a comprehensive analysis of the limits and the relevance of life cycle analysis and the development of a geo-spatialized environmental performance approach for an electrical production pathway. Perspectives linked with the development of this integrated methodology are detailed for energy pathways. (author)

  3. Personality Assessment of Global Talent: Conceptual and Methodological Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Vijver, Fons J. R.

    2008-01-01

    The recruitment of managers who will operate in a culturally heterogeneous context (as expatriate managers, managers in a global company, or managers of a multicultural workforce) is increasingly important in an age of globalization. This article describes conceptual and methodological issues in the assessment of such managers, notably in the…

  4. Poverty Assessment in the Philippines and Indonesia: A Methodological Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    David, Isidoro P.; Asra, Abuzar; Virola, Romulo A.

    1997-01-01

    Existing official poverty statistics cannot be directly utilized for cross-country comparison. This paper illustrates why. It presents an assessment of poverty measurement in the Philippines and Indonesia by examining methodologies used and the disparity in their respective poverty statistics. A more comparable poverty estimates in these countries are provided.

  5. Assessment of Wind Turbine Structural Integrity using Response Surface Methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Svenningsen, Lasse; Moser, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights •A new approach to assessment of site specific wind turbine loads is proposed. •The approach can be applied in both fatigue and ultimate limit state. •Two different response surface methodologies have been investigated. •The model uncertainty introduced by the response surfaces...

  6. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  7. Methodology for assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources for the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Ronald R.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, D.L.

    2017-11-15

    The methodological procedures used in the geologic assessments of the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) were based largely on the methodology developed for the 2000 U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment. The main variables were probability distributions for numbers and sizes of undiscovered accumulations with an associated risk of occurrence. The CARA methodology expanded on the previous methodology in providing additional tools and procedures more applicable to the many Arctic basins that have little or no exploration history. Most importantly, geologic analogs from a database constructed for this study were used in many of the assessments to constrain numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations.

  8. Spanish methodological approach for biosphere assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agueero, A.; Pinedo, P.; Cancio, D.; Simon, I.; Moraleda, M.; Perez-Sanchez, D.; Trueba, C.

    2007-01-01

    The development of radioactive waste disposal facilities requires implementation of measures that will afford protection of human health and the environment over a specific temporal frame that depends on the characteristics of the wastes. The repository design is based on a multi-barrier system: (i) the near-field or engineered barrier, (ii) far-field or geological barrier and (iii) the biosphere system. Here, the focus is on the analysis of this last system, the biosphere. A description is provided of conceptual developments, methodological aspects and software tools used to develop the Biosphere Assessment Methodology in the context of high-level waste (HLW) disposal facilities in Spain. This methodology is based on the BIOMASS 'Reference Biospheres Methodology' and provides a logical and systematic approach with supplementary documentation that helps to support the decisions necessary for model development. It follows a five-stage approach, such that a coherent biosphere system description and the corresponding conceptual, mathematical and numerical models can be built. A discussion on the improvements implemented through application of the methodology to case studies in international and national projects is included. Some facets of this methodological approach still require further consideration, principally an enhanced integration of climatology, geography and ecology into models considering evolution of the environment, some aspects of the interface between the geosphere and biosphere, and an accurate quantification of environmental change processes and rates

  9. Spanish methodological approach for biosphere assessment of radioactive waste disposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agüero, A; Pinedo, P; Cancio, D; Simón, I; Moraleda, M; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Trueba, C

    2007-10-01

    The development of radioactive waste disposal facilities requires implementation of measures that will afford protection of human health and the environment over a specific temporal frame that depends on the characteristics of the wastes. The repository design is based on a multi-barrier system: (i) the near-field or engineered barrier, (ii) far-field or geological barrier and (iii) the biosphere system. Here, the focus is on the analysis of this last system, the biosphere. A description is provided of conceptual developments, methodological aspects and software tools used to develop the Biosphere Assessment Methodology in the context of high-level waste (HLW) disposal facilities in Spain. This methodology is based on the BIOMASS "Reference Biospheres Methodology" and provides a logical and systematic approach with supplementary documentation that helps to support the decisions necessary for model development. It follows a five-stage approach, such that a coherent biosphere system description and the corresponding conceptual, mathematical and numerical models can be built. A discussion on the improvements implemented through application of the methodology to case studies in international and national projects is included. Some facets of this methodological approach still require further consideration, principally an enhanced integration of climatology, geography and ecology into models considering evolution of the environment, some aspects of the interface between the geosphere and biosphere, and an accurate quantification of environmental change processes and rates.

  10. Methodology of Economic Assessment of Corporate Finance Management Effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Juscu Nicolae Cristian

    2011-01-01

    “The methodology of economic assessment of corporate finance management effectiveness” deals with the analysis of the basic issues of economic aspects of corporate finance management effectiveness; the paper presents the essential issues of the existing methods for establishing the economic effectiveness of corporate finance management and control; it also proposes the improvement of the approach regarding the assessment of finance management effectiveness of a company.

  11. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. A new methodology for modelling of health risk from urban flooding exemplified by cholera

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mark, Ole; Jørgensen, Claus; Hammond, Michael

    2016-01-01

    outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and health risk caused by direct human contact with the flood water and hence gives...... and mortality, especially during floods. At present, there are no software tools capable of combining hydrodynamic modelling and health risk analyses, and the links between urban flooding and the health risk for the population due to direct contact with the flood water are poorly understood. The present paper...... an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population by use of intelligent urban flood risk management. The model linking urban flooding and health risk is applied to Dhaka City in Bangladesh, where waterborne diseases including cholera are endemic. The application to Dhaka City is supported...

  13. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  14. Application of the risk-informed methodology for APR1400 P-T limits curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.; Namgung, I. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    A reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a nuclear power plant has operational limits of pressure and temperature to prevent a potential drastic propagation of cracks due to brittle fracture. We call it a pressure-temperature limits curve (P-T limits curve). Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, provides deterministic procedures to develop the P-T limits curve for the reactor pressure vessel. Recently, an alternative risk-informed methodology has been added in the ASME Code. Risk-informed means that we can consider insights from a probabilistic risk assessment by using this methodology. This alternative methodology provides a simple procedure to develop risk-informed P-T limits for heat up, cool down, and hydrostatic test events. The risk-informed P-T limits curve is known to provide more operational flexibility, particularly for reactor pressure vessels with relatively high irradiation levels and radiation sensitive materials. In this paper, we developed both the deterministic and a risk-informed P-T limits curve for an APR1400 reactor using Appendix G of the ASME Code, Section XI and compare the results in terms of additional operational margin. (author)

  15. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document

  16. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  17. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  18. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  19. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  20. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  1. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  3. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  4. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

    2012-05-01

    A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

  7. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  8. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  9. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  10. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  12. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  13. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  14. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  15. Methodology for assessing the impacts of distributed generation interconnection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis E. Luna

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a methodology for identifying and assessing the impact of distributed generation interconnection on distribution systems using Monte Carlo techniques. This methodology consists of two analysis schemes: a technical analysis, which evaluates the reliability conditions of the distribution system; on the other hand, an economic analysis that evaluates the financial impacts on the electric utility and its customers, according to the system reliability level. The proposed methodology was applied to an IEEE test distribution system, considering different operation schemes for the distributed generation interconnection. The application of each one of these schemes provided significant improvements regarding the reliability and important economic benefits for the electric utility. However, such schemes resulted in negative profitability levels for certain customers, therefore, regulatory measures and bilateral contracts were proposed which would provide a solution for this kind of problem.

  16. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  17. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  18. Overtopping hazards to port activities: Application of a new methodology to risk management (POrt Risk MAnagement Tool)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alises, Ana; Molina, Rafael; Gómez, Rebeca; Pery, Pascual; Castillo, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    In the past 20 years, the need of ports to serve a fleet whose dimensions are continuously increasing due to economies of scale, has derived on a port infrastructures growth with a trend to look for greater drafts at deeper waters and therefore the protection structures built in the last years have been increasingly exposed to severer maritime climate action. Consequently, overtopping phenomenon has been identified as a potential risk factor able to cause structural damages and operative failure modes to vulnerable economic activities located at these port facilities. Port activities must be developed ensuring operative and safety conditions what imply reducing uncertainties of overtopping phenomena by using prediction methods which may allow overtopping risk management. This paper provides a risk assessment methodology which is integrated into an overtopping risk management framework to cope with safety problems in port exploitation. Overtopping risk value is measured by combining probability of occurrence of an undesirable event together with its consequences, estimated in terms of costs or delays and given in base of the vulnerability of the affected port system. The development of this methodology is described and finally applied to a real case study what seems to reinforce the validity of the proposed method to overtopping risk assessment. - Highlights: • Infrastructure risk assessment involves both probabilistic and economic techniques. • Risk equation is posed by the combination of probability, vulnerability and cost. • Port infrastructures' vulnerability level depends on climate agents' action. • Economic value of natural hazards consequences is linked with vulnerability level. • Project planning process should be done taking into account the project's risk distribution

  19. Methodology to assess the radiological sensitivity of soils: Application to Spanish soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueba Alonso, C.

    2005-01-01

    A methodology, based on standard physical and chemical soil properties, has been developed to estimate the radiological sensitivity of soils to a 137 C s and 90 S r contamination. In this framework, the soil radiological sensitivity is defined as the soil capability to mobilise or to retain these radionuclides. The purpose of this methodology is to assess, in terms of radiological sensitivity indexes, the behaviour of 137 C s and 90 S r in soils and their fluxes to man, considering two exposure pathways, the external irradiation exposure and the internal exposure from ingestion. The methodology is applied to the great variety of soil types found in Spain, where the soil profile is the reference unit for the assessment. The results for these soil types show, that their basic soil properties are the key to categorise the radiological sensitivity according to the risks considered. The final categorisation allows to identify soils specially sensible and improves the radiological impact assessment predictions. (Author)

  20. A methodology for estimating potential doses and risks from recycling U.S. Department of Energy radioactive scrap metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKinney, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering writing regulations for the controlled use of materials originating from radioactively contaminated zones which may be recyclable. These materials include metals, such as steel (carbon and stainless), nickel, copper, aluminum and lead, from the decommissioning of federal, and non-federal facilities. To develop criteria for the release of such materials, a risk analysis of all potential exposure pathways should be conducted. These pathways include direct exposure to the recycled material by the public and workers, both individual and collective, as well as numerous other potential exposure pathways in the life of the material. EPA has developed a risk assessment methodology for estimating doses and risks associated with recycling radioactive scrap metals. This methodology was applied to metal belonging to the U.S. Department of Energy. This paper will discuss the draft EPA risk assessment methodology as a tool for estimating doses and risks from recycling. (author)

  1. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  2. Methodology for assessing the radiological impact on environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yongxing

    1988-01-01

    During the 1940s, the early stages of nuclear programmes, the assessment of the radionuclides released to the environment was first initiated for the large nuclear facilities, with emphasis placed on environmental monitoring. The radiological assessment is a quantitative process of estimating the impact on human, resulting from the releases of the radionuclides to the environment. It is a multidisciplinary subject including identification of source terms, environmental transport and dispersion, health effect evaluation and so on. This paper briefly, but comprehensively, describes the methodology for the assessment of the environmental radiological consequence, and discusses the trend of various research fields related to the subject

  3. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  4. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  5. Assessing soundscape: Comparison between in situ and laboratory methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hermida Cadena Luis Fernando

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of soundscape implies an interdisciplinary approach, where objective and subjective aspects are considered. For the subjective evaluation, in situ and laboratory methodologies are usually followed. Local observations allow the collection of information on the influence of different stimuli present in the environment, whereas laboratory tests present a determined quantity of controlled stimuli to the evaluator. The purpose of this work is to compare results from the different methodologies in order to understand their strengths and their weaknesses. Three urban parks in the city of Lisbon, Portugal, were evaluated. Fragments of binaural sound recordings collected in the parks were used in laboratory tests to compare with the responses in situ and of expert and nonexpert listeners. Statistically significant differences were found in several of the perceptual attributes under observation, which led to variation in the results of the main model’s components. The sound environments were found to be more pleasant and uneventful in situ than in the laboratory, a phenomenon possibly due to the influence of other stimuli such as visual in the process of assessment. The in situ tests allow a systemic and holistic evaluation of the environment under study,whereas the laboratory tests allow a specific and tightly targeted analysis of different component sound events. Therefore, the two methodologies can be useful in soundscape assessment depending on the specific application and needs. No differences were found in the assessment made by either experts or nonexperts.

  6. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks

  7. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  8. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  9. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  10. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  11. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  12. Process business risk: a methodology for assessing and mitigating the financial impact of process plant accidents; Avaliacao de risco ao negocio devido a acidentes de processo em plantas industriais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana Cristina C.; Bardy, Mariana B. [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Traditional risk management has focused on effects on people, particularly when using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A much broader approach is being adopted nowadays, with companies beginning to consider potential accidental losses in their decision making process. This paper describes a study where business risks from major accident hazards were assessed for a large petrochemical plant. The results are presented as F-Cost curves, which are similar to traditional F-N curves, but represent cumulative frequencies of events versus their cost, instead of fatalities. A different variety of costs can be evaluated as property damage, business interruption, inventory loss, environmental loss, clean-up costs, legal costs, fatality and injury costs, amongst others. As final objective of the study insurance values can be adjusted as well as decisions on reducing risk can be made based on the actual benefit, considering the reduction of losses and the amount to be spent on mitigating major risks. Also, values for civil liability insurance can be reviewed, based on the hazards that can result in fatalities and injuries, as well as property losses, for third parties. This paper presents the results of a study which involved the evaluation of the company's civil liability. The key driver was to consider a more accurate value for the company insurance policy, considering the different losses that major accident can lead on for a community and industries located nearby a petrochemical plant. The results of the analysis are presented as F-Cost curves and we describe the risk-based decision making process and criteria adopted by the company to set the maximum loss value to be insured for civil liability. In conclusion, this paper presents results from a real life example of the application of the quantitative evaluation of business risks, illustrating that a financial or business risk approach can help management in day-to-day decisions when considering possible effects of

  13. Methodology for Assessment of Inertial Response from Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Altin, Müfit; Teodorescu, Remus; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    High wind power penetration levels result in additional requirements from wind power in order to improve frequency stability. Replacement of conventional power plants with wind power plants reduces the power system inertia due to the wind turbine technology. Consequently, the rate of change...... of frequency and the maximum frequency deviation increase after a disturbance such as generation loss, load increase, etc. Having no inherent inertial response, wind power plants need additional control concepts in order to provide an additional active power following a disturbance. Several control concepts...... have been implemented in the literature, but the assessment of these control concepts with respect to power system requirements has not been specified. In this paper, a methodology to assess the inertial response from wind power plants is proposed. Accordingly, the proposed methodology is applied...

  14. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: PRESENT AND FUTURE METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Benítez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The growing importance of quality of life in diverse domains, such as health, school performance and social participation, has led to the development of new conceptualisations and assessments of the construct. This diversity of perspectives brings about many benefits, but it also creates an obstacle for the formulation of a single unifying definition of the construct and, therefore, an agreed instrument or assessment framework. The aim of this study is to discuss the current methodological challenges in the measurement of quality of life. Firstly, we provide a brief description of the construct as defined in various areas, then we examine the new methodological developments and different applications. We also present an overview of the different possibilities for future developments in defining and measuring quality of life in national and international studies.

  15. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  16. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  17. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to the most important areas. The proposed Research Contract activity is strongly connected with other safety related areas under development. Since, the Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Level 1 PSA Study (CPSE) was performed and now the study is revised taking into account the as-built information, it is recommended to implement into the model the necessary modeling features to support further PSA application, especially related to Test and Maintenance optimization. Methods need to be developed in order to apply the PSA model including risk information together with other needed information for Test and Maintenance optimization. Also, in parallel with the CPSE study updating, the software interface for the PSA model is under development (Risk Monitor Software class), methods and models needing to be developed for the purpose of using it for qualified monitoring of Test and Maintenance Strategy efficiency. Similar, the Data Collection System need to be appropriate for the purpose of an ongoing implementation of a risk - based Test and Maintenance Strategy. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig

  18. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  19. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive materials and nuclear explosives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.; Wilson, R.K.; Hartman, W.F.

    1991-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has the lead technical role for probabilistic risk assessments of transportation of nuclear weapons, components, and special nuclear material in support of the US Department of Energy. The emphasis of the risk assessments is on evaluating the probability of inadvertent disposal of radioactive material and the consequences of such a release. This paper will provide an overview of the methodology being developed for the risk assessment and will discuss the interpretation and use of the results. The advantages and disadvantages of using risk assessment as an alternative to performance-based criteria for packaging will be described. 2 refs., 1 fig

  20. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  1. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  2. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  3. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  4. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  5. Methodological guidelines for geoheritage site assessment: A proposal for Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maran-Stevanović Aleksandra

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Various minerals, rocks, soil types, ore and fossiliferous deposits, structural and tectonic elements, surface and subterranean landforms, all those natural phenomena representing geodiversity in a small scale contribute to our understanding the significant events and episodes of the geological history of the Earth. Intended methodology for qualitative and quantitative assessment is presented, including valuing criteria and their numerical indicators, which serve as analytical instruments to identify and select potential geoheritage objects in Serbia. Objective assessing and categorizing the geoheritage objects are the starting points for their rational utilization, adequate conservation, proper interpretation and promotion.

  6. Survey and selection of assessment methodologies for GAVE options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weterings, R.

    1999-05-01

    The Dutch government is interested in the possibilities for a market introduction of new gaseous and liquid energy carriers. To this purpose the GAVE-programme was recently set up. This study is carried out within the framework of the GAVE-programme and aims at the selection of methodologies for assessing the technological, economic, ecological and social perspectives of these new energy options (so-called GAVE-options). Based on the results of these assessments the Dutch ministries of Housing, Planning and Environment (VROM) and Economic Affairs (EZ) will decide at the end of 1999 about starting demonstration projects of promising energy carriers

  7. Methodology to Assess No Touch Audit Software Using Field Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, Jie [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Braun, James E. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Langner, M. Rois [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-10-01

    The research presented in this report builds upon these previous efforts and proposes a set of tests to assess no touch audit tools using real utility bill and on-site data. The proposed assessment methodology explicitly investigates the behaviors of the monthly energy end uses with respect to outdoor temperature, i.e., the building energy signature, to help understand the Tool's disaggregation accuracy. The project team collaborated with Field Diagnosis Services, Inc. (FDSI) to identify appropriate test sites for the evaluation.

  8. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document

  9. Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

  10. The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

    2017-07-01

    Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple

  11. Climate Change RisksMethodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  12. Contracting Selection for the Development of the Range Rule Risk Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    ...-Effectiveness Risk Tool and contractor selection for the development of the Range Rule Risk Methodology. The audit objective was to determine whether the Government appropriately used the Ordnance and Explosives Cost-Effectiveness Risk Tool...

  13. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  14. Reliability assessment of passive containment isolation system using APSRA methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nayak, A.K.; Jain, Vikas; Gartia, M.R.; Srivastava, A.; Prasad, Hari; Anthony, A.; Gaikwad, A.J.; Bhatia, S.; Sinha, R.K.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a methodology known as APSRA (Assessment of Passive System ReliAbility) has been employed for evaluation of the reliability of passive systems. The methodology has been applied to the passive containment isolation system (PCIS) of the Indian advanced heavy water reactor (AHWR). In the APSRA methodology, the passive system reliability evaluation is based on the failure probability of the system to carryout the desired function. The methodology first determines the operational characteristics of the system and the failure conditions by assigning a predetermined failure criterion. The failure surface is predicted using a best estimate code considering deviations of the operating parameters from their nominal states, which affect the PCIS performance. APSRA proposes to compare the code predictions with the test data to generate the uncertainties on the failure parameter prediction, which is later considered in the code for accurate prediction of failure surface of the system. Once the failure surface of the system is predicted, the cause of failure is examined through root diagnosis, which occurs mainly due to failure of mechanical components. The failure probability of these components is evaluated through a classical PSA treatment using the generic data. The reliability of the PCIS is evaluated from the probability of availability of the components for the success of the passive containment isolation system

  15. Assessing digital control system dependability using the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrett, C.J.; Guarro, S.B.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    1993-01-01

    Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) is a methodological approach to modeling and analyzing the behavior of software-driven embedded systems for the purpose of reliability/safety assessment and verification. The methodology has two fundamental goals: (a) to identify how certain postulated events may occur in a system and (b) to identify an appropriate testing strategy based on an analysis of system functional behavior. To achieve these goals, the methodology employs a modeling framework in which system models are developed in terms of causal relationships between physical variables and temporal characteristics of the execution of software modules. These models are then analyzed to determine how a certain state (desirable or undesirable) can be reached. This is done by developing timed fault trees, which take the form of logical combinations of static trees relating system parameters at different points in time. The prime implicants (multistate analog of minimal cut sets) of the fault trees can be used to identify and eliminate system faults resulting from unanticipated combinations of software logic errors, hardware failures, and adverse environmental conditions and to direct testing activity to more efficiently eliminate implementation errors by focusing on the neighborhood of potential failure modes arising from these combinations of system conditions

  16. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database