U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Risk Management; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Scofield, P.A. [Office of Environmental Compliance and Documentation (United States)

1995-06-01

This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-03

...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data input...

Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Keating, Corland G.

2014-01-01

An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

2008-12-01

This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

2016-06-15

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rath, F.

2016-01-01

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Masahiro

2012-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

Methodology for assessment of safety risk due to potential accidents in US gaseous diffusion plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, J.H.; O'Kain, D.U.

1991-01-01

Gaseous diffusion plants that operate in the United States represent a unique combination of nuclear and chemical hazards. Assessing and controlling the health, safety, and environmental risks that can result from natural phenomena events, process upset conditions, and operator errors require a unique methodology. Such a methodology has been developed for the diffusion plants and is being utilized to assess and control the risk of operating the plants. A summary of the methodology developed to assess the unique safety risks at the US gaseous diffusion plants is presented in this paper

A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Hyo-Nam; Choi, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Yoon-Bae

2002-01-01

This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as 'High/Low' and 'Good/Bad' have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as 'Close to any value' or 'Higher/Lower than analyzed value', are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2006-01-01

A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

Radiological risk assessment for the public under the loss of medium and large sources using bayesian methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Joo Yeon; Jang, Han Ki; Lee, Jai Ki

2005-01-01

Bayesian methodology is appropriated for use in PRA because subjective knowledges as well as objective data are applied to assessment. In this study, radiological risk based on Bayesian methodology is assessed for the loss of source in field radiography. The exposure scenario for the lost source presented in U.S. NRC is reconstructed by considering the domestic situation and Bayes theorem is applied to updating of failure probabilities of safety functions. In case of updating of failure probabilities, it shows that 5% Bayes credible intervals using Jeffreys prior distribution are lower than ones using vague prior distribution. It is noted that Jeffreys prior distribution is appropriated in risk assessment for systems having very low failure probabilities. And, it shows that the mean of the expected annual dose for the public based on Bayesian methodology is higher than the dose based on classical methodology because the means of the updated probabilities are higher than classical probabilities. The database for radiological risk assessment are sparse in domestic. It summarizes that Bayesian methodology can be applied as an useful alternative for risk assessment and the study on risk assessment will be contributed to risk-informed regulation in the field of radiation safety

Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Marzo

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

2011-01-01

Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

2010-12-01

Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

[Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

Science.gov (United States)

De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

2011-01-01

Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

Science.gov (United States)

Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

2012-04-01

The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

2013-01-01

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10 −5 compared to 23.4 · 10 −5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

2013-01-15

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup −5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup −5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support

Application of FIVE methodology in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of fire events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez Garcia, F.J.; Suarez Alonso, J.; Fiolamengual, M.J.

1993-01-01

This paper reflects the experience acquired during the process of evaluation and updating of the fire analysis within the Cofrentes NPP PRA. It determines which points are the least precise, either because of their greater uncertainty or because of their excessive conservatism, as well as the subtasks which have involved a larger work load and could be simplified. These aspects are compared with the steps followed in methodology FIVE (Fire Vulnerability Evaluation Methodology) to assess whether application of this methodology would optimize the task, by making it more systematic and realistic and reducing uncertainties. On the one hand, the FIVE methodology does not have the scope sufficient to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation, but it can easily be complemented -without detriment to its systematic nature- by quantifying core damage in significant areas. On the other hand, certain issues such as definition of the fire growth software program which has to be used, are still not fully closed. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from this assessment are satisfactory, since it is considered that this methodology would serve to unify the criteria and data of the analysis of fire-induced risks, providing a progressive screening method which would considerably simplify the task. (author)

Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment Methodology for Homeland Security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teagarden, Grant A.; Canavan, Kenneth T.; Nickell, Robert E.

2006-01-01

In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI was selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate a nuclear sector specific methodology for owner / operators to utilize in performing a Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) assessment for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The objective is to characterize SNF transportation risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. Worst reasonable case scenarios characterize risk for a benchmark set of threats and consequence types. A trial application was successfully performed and implementation is underway by one utility. (authors)

Intersystem LOCA risk assessment: methodology and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.; Auflick, L.J.; Blackman, H.S.; Gertman, D.I.; Hanley, L.N.

1994-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors, hardware and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an intersystem loss-of-coolant accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish the goals of this program, a mehtodology has been developed for estimating ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. The steps in this methodology are briefly described, along with the results obtained from an application of the methodology at three pressurized water reactors. Also included are the results of a screening study of boiling water reactors. ((orig.))

Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

1991-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.

1993-01-01

Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials

Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parisa Moshashaei

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

Screening radon risks: A methodology for policymakers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisinger, D.S.; Simmons, R.A.; Lammering, M.; Sotiros, R.

1991-01-01

This paper provides an easy-to-use screening methodology to estimate potential excess lifetime lung cancer risk resulting from indoor radon exposure. The methodology was developed under U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation sponsorship of the agency's Integrated Environmental Management Projects (IEMP) and State/Regional Comparative Risk Projects. These projects help policymakers understand and use scientific data to develop environmental problem-solving strategies. This research presents the risk assessment methodology, discusses its basis, and identifies appropriate applications. The paper also identifies assumptions built into the methodology and qualitatively addresses methodological uncertainties, the direction in which these uncertainties could bias analyses, and their relative importance. The methodology draws from several sources, including risk assessment formulations developed by the U.S. EPA's Office of Radiation Programs, the EPA's Integrated Environmental Management Project (Denver), the International Commission on Radiological Protection, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. When constructed as a spreadsheet program, the methodology easily facilitates analyses and sensitivity studies (the paper includes several sensitivity study options). The methodology will be most helpful to those who need to make decisions concerning radon testing, public education, and exposure prevention and mitigation programs.26 references

Methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oudiz, A.; Brenot, J.; Cessac, B.; Charbonneau, P.; Maigne, J.P.; Santucci, P.

2000-01-01

At the request of the French ministries of health and environment, IPSN was asked to elaborate a methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides. This guide is devoted to local administration, technical organisms and more generally to all the relevant stakeholders involved with the choice of a rehabilitation strategy, according to the future use of the site. The methodology to be presented is designed to fit with the different types of 'risk governance', according to circumstances: - when an industrial site is relatively small, with rather restricted zones of contamination, and no specific social concern, management may rely essentially upon radiological expertise, using generic reference levels, - when the site is larger, with spread out contamination, risk assessment and management of the site may become more controversial, namely because uncertainties remain about the effective magnitude of the contamination and no low cost solution appears to exist in view of rehabilitation. In this case, an open procedure is required, which combines technical expertise and involvement of stakeholders, in view of improving the risk assessment process as well as trying to get a better understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of different rehabilitation strategies. The methodology consists of six main steps : - Initiating the process, Pre-diagnosis, Initial diagnosis, Simplified risk assessment, Detailed risk assessment, Decision aiding in view of letting the stakeholders defining the solution appropriate to the local context. The paper will present how the risk assessment and management process can be aportionated to the importance of the problem to be solved. As far as possible, simplified risk assessment should provide information allowing the definition of the appropriate strategy. In this case, stakeholders involvement is mainly devoted to determine: - whether the site can be affected to a given use without

A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

2011-01-01

A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N.G. Vygovska

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-06-01

Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

2001-01-01

As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

Construction schedule delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammed Mufazzal Hossen

2015-04-01

The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

Comparison of the DOE and the EPA risk assessment methodologies and default parameters for the air exposure pathway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Z.; Eckart, R.

1993-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) each publish radiological health effects risk assessment methodologies. Those methodologies are in the form of computer program models or extensive documentation. This research paper compares the significant differences between the DOE and EPA methodologies and default parameters for the important air exposure pathway. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the fundamental differences in methodology and parameter values between the DOE and the EPA. This study reviewed the parameter values and default values that are utilized in the air exposure pathway and revealed the significant differences in risk assessment results when default values are used in the analysis of an actual site. The study details the sources and the magnitude of the parameter departures between the DOE and the EPA methodologies and their impact on dose or risk

A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2007-01-01

A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

2002-09-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

2017-01-01

to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

1977-01-01

One major environmental concern associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of short- and long-term quantitative risks to the environment resulting from release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. The paper describes a comprehensive model developed during 1976 for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model consisted of a release or fault-tree model, an environmental model and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of radioactive and non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short term to develop general environmental standards applicable to any radioactive waste management

An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Brebano, M.C.

1977-01-01

One of the major environmental concerns associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the University of New Mexico has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of both the short-term as well as long-term quantitative risks on the environment resulting from the release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. This past year a comprehensive model has been developed for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model has consisted of a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological, and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of both radioactive as well as non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short-term to develop general environmental standards

Critical infrastructure systems of systems assessment methodology.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sholander, Peter E.; Darby, John L.; Phelan, James M.; Smith, Bryan; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Walter, Andrew; Varnado, G. Bruce; Depoy, Jennifer Mae

2006-10-01

Assessing the risk of malevolent attacks against large-scale critical infrastructures requires modifications to existing methodologies that separately consider physical security and cyber security. This research has developed a risk assessment methodology that explicitly accounts for both physical and cyber security, while preserving the traditional security paradigm of detect, delay, and respond. This methodology also accounts for the condition that a facility may be able to recover from or mitigate the impact of a successful attack before serious consequences occur. The methodology uses evidence-based techniques (which are a generalization of probability theory) to evaluate the security posture of the cyber protection systems. Cyber threats are compared against cyber security posture using a category-based approach nested within a path-based analysis to determine the most vulnerable cyber attack path. The methodology summarizes the impact of a blended cyber/physical adversary attack in a conditional risk estimate where the consequence term is scaled by a ''willingness to pay'' avoidance approach.

Risk assessment of cryogenic installations – implementation, applicability of methodologies and challenges at CERN

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

For the safe design of a cryogenic installation, it is essential to carry out a comprehensive hazard identification and risk estimate in order to put in place the necessary control measures for an adequate risk mitigation. According to CERN Safety Rules, it is mandatory that the organic unit owning a cryogenic facility conducts and documents a risk assessment. This requirement is also given by the European Directive 2014/68/EU to manufacturers of pressure equipment. During the talk, some of the challenges CERN faces in the development of risk assessments across the broad array of activities involving cryogenic equipment in the organization will be discussed. Challenges such as the choice of the best-suited risk assessment methodology based on the features and complexity of the installation/activities, the efforts to develop tools to facilitate hazard identification, risk analysis and definition of related measures to protect the health and safety of workers, such as streamlined guidelines, forms and check...

Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-04-15

In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun

2015-01-01

In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs

Methodology for development of risk indicators for offshore platforms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oeien, K.; Sklet, S.

1999-01-01

This paper presents a generic methodology for development of risk indicators for petroleum installations and a specific set of risk indicators established for one offshore platform. The risk indicators should be used to control the risk during operation of platforms. The methodology is purely risk-based and the basis for development of risk indicators is the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). In order to identify high risk contributing factors, platform personnel are asked to assess whether and how much the risk influencing factors will change. A brief comparison of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for nuclear power plants and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for petroleum platforms is also given. (au)

Probablistic risk assessment methodology application to Indian pressurised heavy water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babar, A.K.; Grover, R.B.; Mehra, V.K.; Gangwal, D.K.; Chakraborty, G.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment in the context of nuclear power plants is associated with models that predict the offsite radiological releases resulting from reactor accidents. Level 1 PRA deals with the identification of accident sequences relevant to the design of a system and also with their quantitative estimation. It is characterised by event tree, fault tree analysis. The initiating events applicable to pressurised heavy water reactors have been considered and the dominating initiating events essential for detailed studies are identified in this paper. Reliability analysis and the associated problems encountered during the case studies are mentioned briefly. It is imperative to validate the failure data used for analysis. Bayesian technique has been employed for the same and a brief account is included herein. A few important observations, e.g. effects of the presence of moderator, made during the application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology are also discussed. (author)

A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

2003-01-01

As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benedetta Persechino

2013-06-01

Conclusion: This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, Johnathan

2003-05-01

This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

2002-09-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

1987-06-01

A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siirila, Erica R.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2012-01-01

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: ► A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. ► TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. ► Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show sensitivity in TDRA results. ► In the TDRA results, individual susceptibility

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: Development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siirila, Erica R., E-mail: esiirila@mymail.mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Maxwell, Reed M., E-mail: rmaxwell@mines.edu [Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

2012-08-01

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A human health, Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) methodology is presented. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TDRA relays information on the magnitude, duration, and fluxes of risk in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic and equilibrium concentration signals show

Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

1984-01-01

The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salvi, Olivier; Debray, Bruno

2006-01-01

The ARAMIS methodology was developed in an European project co-funded in the fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission with the objective to answer the specific requirements of the SEVESO II directive. It offers an alternative to purely deterministic and probabilistic approaches to risk assessment of process plants. It also answers the needs of the various stakeholders interested by the results of the risk assessment for land use or emergency planning, enforcement or, more generally, public decision-making. The methodology is divided into the following major steps: identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), identification of the safety barriers and assessment of their performances, evaluation of safety management efficiency to barrier reliability, identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS), assessment and mapping of the risk severity of reference scenarios and of the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. The methodology was tested during five case studies, which provided useful information about the applicability of the method and, by identifying the most sensitive parts of it opened way to new research activity for an improved industrial safety

Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

1992-04-01

This report presents information essential to understanding the risk associated with inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs). The methodology developed and presented in the report provides a state-of-the-art method for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware design, human performance issues, and accident consequence factors to relevant to the prediction of the ISLOCA risk. This ISLOCA methodology was developed and then applied to a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plants. The results from this application are described in detail. For this particular B ampersand W reference plant, the assessment indicated that the probability of a severe ISLOCA is approximately 2.2E-06/reactor-year. This document Volume 3 provides appendices A--H of the report. Topics are: Historical experience related to ISLOCA events; component failure rates; reference B ampersand W plant system descriptions; reference B ampersand W plant ISLOCA event trees; Human reliability analysis for the B ampersand W ISLOCA probabilistic risk assessment; thermal hydraulic calculations; bounding core uncovery time calculations; and system rupture probability

Gas migration from closed coal mines to the surface. Risk assessment methodology and prevention means

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pokryszka, Z.; Tauziede, Ch.; Lagny, C.; Guise, Y.; Gobillot, R.; Planchenault, J.M.; Lagarde, R.

2005-01-01

French law as regards renunciation to mining concessions calls for the mining operator to first undertake analyses of the risks represented by their underground mining works. The problem of gas migration to the surface is especially significant in the context of coal mines. This is because mine gas can migrate to the earth's surface, then present significant risks: explosion, suffocation or gas poisoning risks. As part of the scheduled closure of all coal mining operations in France, INERIS has drawn up, at the request of national mining operator Charbonnages de France, a general methodology for assessing the risk linked to gas in the context of closed coal mines. This article presents the principles of this methodology. An application example based on a true case study is then described. This is completed by a presentation of the preventive and monitoring resources recommended and usually applied in order to manage the risk linked to gaseous emissions. (authors)

Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

2013-01-01

A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

Comparison of risk assessment methodologies for nuclear power and nuclear fuels processing plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durant, W.S.; Walker, D.H.

1986-08-01

The utilization of nuclear fission for the generation of electric power or other purposes has as its by-product radioactive fission products. These radioactive fission products represent a potential hazard different in nature from that associated with other process operations or other methods of electrical power generation. As a result the electrical power stations and the facilities designed to process the irradiated fuel to recover the still useful fuel and the products of the irradiation are designed with multiple physical barriers to contain the radioactive fission products in the event that an accident were to occur. In recent years, a disciplined approach has evolved for developing detailed models of a facility and its processes. These models can be used to assess the response for the facility to upset or accident events. The approach is based on an ordered application of available data employing fault tree/event tree methodologies. Data and/or engineering judgment are applied in a probabilisitc framework so the approach has been called Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The approach has been applied to nuclear electric generating facilities and to nuclear fuel processing facilities to assess the potential for release of fission product and transuranium element radionuclides (the hazard) and the resulting risks. The application of the methodology to the electrical generating facilities and to the fuel processing facilities has evolved somewhat differently because of differences in the facilities, availability of failure rate data, and expected outputs. This paper summarizes the two approaches and the differences in them compares the risk results from the existing studies

Risk assessment and ranking methodologies for hazardous chemical defense waste: a state-of-the-art review and evaluation. Task 1 report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, M.S.Y.; Rodricks, J.V.; St Hilaire, C.; Bras, R.L.

1986-06-01

This report summarizes the work performed under Task 1 of the Risk Assessment Evaluation Task under the Hazardous Chemical Defense Waste Management Program of the Department of Energy (DOE). The objective of Task 1 was to identify, review, and evaluate the state-of-the-art tools and techniques available for ranking and evaluating disposal facilities. These tools were evaluated for their applicability to DOE's mixed hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites. Various ranking methodologies were reviewed and three were evaluated in detail. Areas that were found to be deficient in each ranking methodology were presented in the report. Recommendations were given for the development of an improved ranking methodology for use on DOE's sites. A literature review was then performed on the various components of a risk assessment methodology. They include source term evaluation, geosphere transport models, exposure pathways models, dose effects models, and sensitivity/uncertainty techniques. A number of recommendations have been made in the report based on the review and evaluation for the development of a comprehensive risk assessment methodology in evaluating mixed waste disposal sites

Methodology and results of risk assessment of interconnections within the JET active gas handling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballantyne, P.R.; Bell, A.C.; Konstantellos, A.; Hemmerich, J.L.

1992-01-01

The Joint European Torus (JET) Active Gas Handling System (AGHS) is a complex interconnection of numerous subsystems. While individual subsystems were assessed for their risk of operation, an assessment of the effects of inadvertent interconnections was needed. A systematic method to document the assessment was devised to ease the assessment of complex plant and was applied to the AGHS. The methodology, application to AGHS, the four critical issues and required plant modifications as a result of this assessment are briefly discussed in this paper

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo

2011-01-01

Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2001-01-01

.... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

Does Metformin Reduce Cancer Risks? Methodologic Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Golozar, Asieh; Liu, Shuiqing; Lin, Joeseph A; Peairs, Kimberly; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh

2016-01-01

The substantial burden of cancer and diabetes and the association between the two conditions has been a motivation for researchers to look for targeted strategies that can simultaneously affect both diseases and reduce their overlapping burden. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, researchers have taken advantage of the availability and richness of administrative databases and electronic medical records to investigate the effects of drugs on cancer risk among diabetic individuals. The majority of these studies suggest that metformin could potentially reduce cancer risk. However, the validity of this purported reduction in cancer risk is limited by several methodological flaws either in the study design or in the analysis. Whether metformin use decreases cancer risk relies heavily on the availability of valid data sources with complete information on confounders, accurate assessment of drug use, appropriate study design, and robust analytical techniques. The majority of the observational studies assessing the association between metformin and cancer risk suffer from methodological shortcomings and efforts to address these issues have been incomplete. Future investigations on the association between metformin and cancer risk should clearly address the methodological issues due to confounding by indication, prevalent user bias, and time-related biases. Although the proposed strategies do not guarantee a bias-free estimate for the association between metformin and cancer, they will reduce synthesis of and reporting of erroneous results.

Methodology of using CFD-based risk assessment in road tunnels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vidmar Peter

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The definition of the deterministic approach in the safety analyses comes from the need to understand the conditions that come out during the fire accident in a road tunnel. The key factor of the tunnel operations during the fire is the ventilation, which during the initial fazes of the fire, impact strongly on the evacuation of people and latter on the access of the intervention units in the tunnel. The paper presents the use of the computational fluid dynamics model in the tunnel safety assessment process. The model is validated by comparing data with experimental and quantifying the differences. The set-up of the initial and boundary conditions and the requirement for grid density found during the validation tests is used to prepare three kind of fire scenarios 20 MW, 50 MW, and 100 MW, with different ventilation conditions; natural, semi transverse, full transverse, and longitudinal ventilation. The observed variables, soot density and temperature, are presented in minutes time steps trough the entire tunnel length. Comparing the obtained data in a table, allows the analyses of the ventilation conditions for different heat releases from fires. The second step is to add additional criteria of human behaviour inside the tunnel (evacuation and human resistance to the elevated gas concentrations and temperature. What comes out is a fully deterministic risk matrix that is based on the calculated data where the risk is ranged on five levels, from the lowest to a very danger level. The deterministic risk matrix represents the alternative to a probabilistic safety assessment methodology, where the fire risk is represented in detail as well as the computational fluid dynamics model results are physically correct. .

Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site. V.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

1987-06-01

A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

Risk assessment methodology for extreme wind and missile effects on critical facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

1985-01-01

The TORMIS methodology has been applied to a number of probabilistic risk assessments of critical facilities in the continental United States. These analyses have centered on the estimation of tornado missile impact and damage risks to individual targets as well as to groups of targets at specific plants. A number of advancements and generalizations in the approach have recently been made. These include: (1) generalization of windfield options to include straight winds (WINMIS) and hurricanes (HURMIS); (2) generalization of the scoring to enable analysis of Boolean system expressions for damage probabilities on compound series and parallel safety trains; (3) generalization of the failure criteria to include wind pressure as well as missile impact; (4) generalization of the plant modeling capability to enable more detailed treatment of targets partially or fully enclosed by vulnerable cladding and to allow tracking of missiles inside such enclosures; and (5) incorporation of windspeed criteria for structural failure and subsequent production of potential missiles. This paper will present some of the basic theory and key results of recent TORMIS, WINMIS, and HURMIS applications. The influence of uncertainties in the estimation process and the data needed for plant-specific risk assessments will also be discussed

A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derby, S.L.

1983-01-01

The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

Risk vs. Reward: A Methodology to Assess Investment in Marine Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Hutcheson

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The majority of WEC (wave energy converter projects are expensive and pose a large risk to a developer. Currently no developers have been successful in commercialising a WEC. So far, many wave energy feasibility studies have only considered the LCOE (levelised cost of electricity, assessing investment in marine energy technologies from a purely financial point of view. No previous studies have, however, explicitly accounted for development risk as well as the LCOE to determine the feasibility of a project. This paper proposes a new methodology that can be used to account for both risk and the LCOE to give a clearer picture of the feasibility of a WEC development. By combining the LCOE and risk score for a particular development, the “value for risk” can be calculated, presented here as the “RR ratio” (“Risk/Reward ratio”. A number of case studies were chosen to test the model, investigating the RR ratio for a number of different WEC technologies and ranking them to suggest an optimal development path for the industry. Results showed that projects that combine many innovative technologies provide the best “value for risk”. These devices overall had the highest risk, suggesting that multiple developers are likely required to collaborate in order to reduce the risk down to acceptable levels for each.

Methodology for allocating reliability and risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

1986-05-01

This report describes a methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants. The work investigates the technical feasibility of allocating reliability and risk, which are expressed in a set of global safety criteria and which may not necessarily be rigid, to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner. The report also provides general discussions on the problem of reliability and risk allocation. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm. The work mainly addresses the first two steps of a typical decision analysis, i.e., (1) identifying alternatives, and (2) generating information on outcomes of the alternatives, by performing a multiobjective optimization on a PRA model and reliability cost functions. The multiobjective optimization serves as the guiding principle to reliability and risk allocation. The concept of ''noninferiority'' is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The final step of decision analysis, i.e., assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided, and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation, preference assessment, and uncertainty are discussed. 29 refs., 44 figs., 39 tabs

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

Science.gov (United States)

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Human error risk management for engineering systems: a methodology for design, safety assessment, accident investigation and training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacciabue, P.C.

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to tackle methodological issues associated with the inclusion of cognitive and dynamic considerations into Human Reliability methods. A methodology called Human Error Risk Management for Engineering Systems is presented that offers a 'roadmap' for selecting and consistently applying Human Factors approaches in different areas of application and contains also a 'body' of possible methods and techniques of its own. Two types of possible application are discussed to demonstrate practical applications of the methodology. Specific attention is dedicated to the issue of data collection and definition from specific field assessment

Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

2002-01-01

Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

A Simplified Methodology For Risk Assessment of The Oolitic Limestone Aquifer, West of Alexandria Coastal Zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadek, M.A.; Hussein, R.A.

2013-01-01

Groundwater risk analysis helps to assess the effects of contaminants reach to specific position in groundwater system after introduction at some location above the uppermost aquifer. This provides a basis for initiating protective and mitigation measures for important groundwater resources. An attempt has been made in the present study to assess the risk of diffuse groundwater pollution at the north western coast of Alexandria against landfill waste disposal as well as agricultural pollutants leachates which are the main land use in the studied area. A simplified weighing/ rating approach have been functioned for this purpose, Slovene methodology, which is relevant for fissured carbonate aquifers that characterize the studied area. This method is based on an origin-pathway-target model, which applies for both resource and source protection. Conservative values for the intrinsic geological, hydrogeological, geo morphological and climatological parameters have been reviewed and determined for assessment of the source and resource vulnerability, hazards and risk (lithology, texture and structure of soil zone, lithology and thickness of the unsaturated zone and aquifer conditions, morphological features, slope and vegetation cover, average annual stormy days, travel time and karst network , the fertilizers and pesticide used for agriculture, the volume of unlined waste disposal site). The methodology applied in the present study emphasizes how the physical properties of the hydrological system can be integrated in an index that reflects the level of risk of a diffuse pollution to groundwater. This aligns with the prospective of site safety evaluation around risky installations such as a nuclear power plants or waste disposal facilities where assurance should be done that the risk to the public and environment is acceptably low. According to the functioned methodology, the fissured limestone under study is low vulnerable and highly protectable against surface diffuse

Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

2018-06-01

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

1984-01-01

This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

Standardization of natural phenomena risk assessment methodology at the Savannah River Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, J.C.; Hsu, Y.S.

1985-01-01

Safety analyses at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) normally require consideration of the risks of incidents caused by natural events such as high-velocity straight winds, tornadic winds, and earthquakes. The probabilities for these events to occur at SRP had been studied independently by several investigators, but the results of their studies were never systematically evaluated. As part of the endeavor to standardize our environmental risk assessment methodology, these independent studies have been thoroughly reviewed and critiqued, and appropriate probability models for these natural events have been selected. The selected probability models for natural phenomena, high-velocity straight winds and tornadic winds in particular, are in agreement with those being used at other DOE sites, and have been adopted as a guide for all safety studies conducted for SRP operations and facilities. 7 references, 3 figures

Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors: project overview and strong Wind PRA methodology - 15031

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamano, H.; Nishino, H.; Kurisaka, K.; Okano, Y.; Sakai, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Ishizuka, Y.; Geshi, N.; Furukawa, R.; Nanayama, F.; Takata, T.; Azuma, E.

2015-01-01

This paper describes mainly strong wind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In this project, to date, the PRA methodologies against snow, tornado and strong wind were developed as well as the hazard evaluation methodologies. For the volcanic eruption hazard, ash fallout simulation was carried out to contribute to the development of the hazard evaluation methodology. For the forest fire hazard, the concept of the hazard evaluation methodology was developed based on fire simulation. Event sequence assessment methodology was also developed based on plant dynamics analysis coupled with continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to apply to the event sequence against snow. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or out-take in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6*10 -9 /year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system. (authors)

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

2003-01-01

Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

Using proliferation assessment methodologies for Safeguards-by-Design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Meer, K.; Rossa, R.; Turcanu, C.; Borella, A.

2013-01-01

MYRRHA, an accelerator driven system (ADS) is designed as a proton accelerator coupled to a liquid Pb-Bi spallation target, surrounded by a Pb-Bi cooled sub-critical neutron multiplying medium in a pool type configuration. An assessment based on three methodologies was made of the proliferation risks of the MYRRHA ADS in comparison with the BR2 MTR, an existing research reactor at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre SCK-CEN. The used methodologies were the TOPS (Technical Opportunities to Increase the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems), the PR-PP and the INPRO methodologies. The various features of the methodologies are described and the results of the assessments are given and discussed. It is concluded that it would be useful to define one single methodology with two options to perform a quick and a more detailed assessment. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation

A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derby, S.L.

1983-01-01

The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

A methodology for flood risk appraisal in Lithuania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kriščiukaitienė Irena

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for flood risk mapping as envisaged by the Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks [Directive 2007/60/EC]. Specifically, we aimed at identifying the types of flood damage that can be estimated given data availability in Lithuania. Furthermore, we present the main sources of data and the associated cost functions. The methodology covers the following main types of flood threats: risk to inhabitants, risk to economic activity, and social risk. A multi-criteria framework for aggregation of different risks is proposed to provide a comprehensive appraisal of flood risk. On the basis of the proposed research, flood risk maps have been prepared for Lithuania. These maps are available for each type of flood risk (i.e. inhabitants, economic losses, social risk as well as for aggregate risk. The results indicate that flood risk management is crucial for western and central Lithuania, whereas other parts of the country are not likely to suffer from significant losses due to flooding.

A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jae, Moo Sung

2001-01-01

This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Escales, Paula; Canelles, Arnau; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Folch, Albert; Kurtzman, Daniel; Rossetto, Rudy; Fernández-Escalante, Enrique; Lobo-Ferreira, João-Paulo; Sapiano, Manuel; San-Sebastián, Jon; Schüth, Christoph

2018-06-01

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of fault trees and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

Assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators: screening methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fradkin, L.; Bruins, J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.; Rubin, A.

1987-04-01

This paper describes a risk assessment methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e., facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium.

Hydrogen safety risk assessment methodology applied to a fluidized bed membrane reactor for autothermal reforming of natural gas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Psara, N.; Van Sint Annaland, M.; Gallucci, F.

2015-01-01

The scope of this paper is the development and implementation of a safety risk assessment methodology to highlight hazards potentially prevailing during autothermal reforming of natural gas for hydrogen production in a membrane reactor, as well as to reveal potential accidents related to hydrogen

Assessing Freshwater Ecosystem Service Risk over Ecological, Socioeconomic, and Cultural Gradients: Problem Space Characterization and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Harmon, T. C.; Villamizar, S. R.; Conde, D.; Rusak, J.; Reid, B.; Astorga, A.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; London, S.; Velez, M.; Hoyos, N.; Escobar, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide are under increasing anthropogenic pressure at local (e.g., irrigation diversions, wastewater discharge) and global scales (e.g., climate change, global trading). The impact depends on an ecosystem's sensitivity, which is determined by its geophysical and ecological settings, and the population and activities in its surrounding watershed. Given the importance of ecosystem services, it is critical that we improve our ability to identify and understand changes in aquatic ecosystems, and translate them to risk of service loss. Furthermore, to inspire changes in human behavior, it is equally critical that we learn to communicate risk, and pose risk mitigation strategies, in a manner acceptable to a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Quantifying the nature and timing of the risk is difficult because (1) we often fail to understand the connection between anthropogenic pressures and the timing and extent of ecosystem changes; and (2) the concept of risk is inherently coupled to human perception, which generally differs with cultural and socio-economic conditions. In this study, we endeavor to assess aquatic ecosystem risks across an international array of six study sites. The challenge is to construct a methodology capable of capturing the marked biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences among the sites, which include: (1) Muskoka River watershed in humid continental Ontario, Canada; (2) Lower San Joaquin River, an impounded snow-fed river in semi-arid Central California; (3) Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, a tropical coastal lagoon in Colombia; (4) Senguer River basin in the semi-arid part of Argentina; (5) Laguna de Rocha watershed in humid subtropical Uruguay; and (6) Palomas Lake complex in oceanic Chilean Patagonia. Results will include a characterization of the experimental gradient over the six sites, an overview of the risk assessment methodology, and preliminary findings for several of the sites.

Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, J.E.; Dillon, R.T.; Tierney, M.S.; Davis, H.T.; McGrath, P.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Shaw, H.R.; Helton, J.C.; Donath, F.A.

1978-10-01

The Fuel Cycle Risk Analysis Division of Sandia Laboratories is funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop a methodology for assessment of the long-term risks from radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media. The first phase of this work, which is documented in this report, involves the following: (1) development of analytical models to represent the processes by which radioactive waste might leave the waste repository, enter the surface environment and eventually reach humans and (2) definition of a hypothetical ''reference system'' to provide a realistic setting for exercise of the models in a risk or safety assessment. The second phase of this work, which will be documented in a later report, will involve use of the analytical models in a demonstration risk or safety assessment of the reference system. The analytical methods and data developed in this study are expected to form the basis for a portion of the NRC repository licensing methodology

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2002-01-01

.... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

2008-01-01

The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Diablo Canyon internal events PRA [Probabilistic Risk Assessment] review: Methodology and findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bozoki, G.; Sabek, M.

1990-01-01

The review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCRPA) incorporated some new and innovative approaches. These were necessitated by the unprecedented size, scope and level of detail of the DCRPA, which was submitted to the NRC for licensing purposes. This paper outlines the elements of the internal events portion of the review citing selected findings to illustrate the various approaches employed. The paper also provides a description of the extensive and comprehensive importance analysis applied by BNL to the DCRPA model. Importance calculations included: top event/function level; individual split fractions; pair importances between frontline-support and support-support systems; system importance by initiator; and others. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the effectiveness of the applied methodology. 3 refs., 5 tabs

Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

1990-01-01

FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG ampersand G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort

Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-05-15

Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2011-01-01

Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.

On fire risk/methodology for the next generation of reactors and nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, K.C.; Alesso, H.P.; Altenbach, T.J.

1992-01-01

Methodologies for including fire in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been evolving during the last ten years. Many of these studies show that fire risk constitutes a significant percentage of external events, as well as the total core damage frequency. This paper summarizes the methodologies used in the fire risk analysis of the next generation of reactors and existing DOE nuclear facilities. Methodologies used in other industries, as well as existing nuclear power plants, are also discussed. Results of fire risk studies for various nuclear plants and facilities are shown and compared

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

Science.gov (United States)

Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

2011-01-01

In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

1988-01-01

The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Screening methodology for assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fradkin, L.; Bruins, R.J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.

1987-01-01

This paper describes a risk assessment methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e., facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium.

Risk-assessment methodology development for waste isolation in geologic media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevens, C.A.; Fullwood, R.R.; Amirijafari, B.; Basin, S.L.; Cohen, J.

1982-12-01

A review of three documents prepared for the USNRC by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is presented. These are NUREG/CR-1634, Volume 4 concerned with the effects of variable hydrology on waste migration; NUREG/CR-2324, a user's manual for SWIFT; and NUREG/2343, a user's manual for DNET. This review completes Task 4 of the detailed technical review of the SNL program for Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Waste Isolation in Geologic Media. In general, these reports exhibit high technical quality that characterizes the SNL work. They are tersely written with little condescension to the non-expert reader for understanding the physical situation being modeled. Indeed, the emphasis is on the mathematical procedures rather than the repository physics, leaving the adequacy of the results presented in many computer plots, pretty much to the interpretation of the reader. Other general comments have been presented previously, such as the data conservatisms, need for data that cannot be measured without disturbing the geometry, and the overall plan for use of the many codes developed in the program

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

Science.gov (United States)

D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

2013-09-01

A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

A Methodology To Incorporate The Safety Culture Into Probabilistic Safety Assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Sunghyun; Kim, Namyeong; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In order to incorporate organizational factors into PSA, a methodology needs to be developed. Using the AHP to weigh organizational factors as well as the SLIM to rate those factors, a methodology is introduced in this study. The safety issues related to nuclear safety culture have occurred increasingly. The quantification tool has to be developed in order to include the organizational factor into Probabilistic Safety Assessments. In this study, the state-of-the-art for the organizational evaluation methodologies has been surveyed. This study includes the research for organizational factors, maintenance process, maintenance process analysis models, a quantitative methodology using Analytic Hierarchy Process, Success Likelihood Index Methodology. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology to incorporate the safety culture into PSA for obtaining more objective risk than before. The organizational factor considered in nuclear safety culture might affect the potential risk of human error and hardware-failure. The safety culture impact index to monitor the plant safety culture can be assessed by applying the developed methodology into a nuclear power plant.

A Methodology To Incorporate The Safety Culture Into Probabilistic Safety Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Sunghyun; Kim, Namyeong; Jae, Moosung

2015-01-01

In order to incorporate organizational factors into PSA, a methodology needs to be developed. Using the AHP to weigh organizational factors as well as the SLIM to rate those factors, a methodology is introduced in this study. The safety issues related to nuclear safety culture have occurred increasingly. The quantification tool has to be developed in order to include the organizational factor into Probabilistic Safety Assessments. In this study, the state-of-the-art for the organizational evaluation methodologies has been surveyed. This study includes the research for organizational factors, maintenance process, maintenance process analysis models, a quantitative methodology using Analytic Hierarchy Process, Success Likelihood Index Methodology. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology to incorporate the safety culture into PSA for obtaining more objective risk than before. The organizational factor considered in nuclear safety culture might affect the potential risk of human error and hardware-failure. The safety culture impact index to monitor the plant safety culture can be assessed by applying the developed methodology into a nuclear power plant

Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Landis, Wayne G

2005-01-01

...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

A methodology of the assessment of environmental and human health risks from amine emissions from post combustion CO2 capture technology

Science.gov (United States)

Korre, Anna; Manzoor, Saba; Simperler, Alexandra

2015-04-01

Post combustion CO2 capture (PCCC) technology in power plants using amines as solvent for CO2 capture, is one of the reduction technologies employed to combat escalating levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, amine solvents used for capturing CO2 produce negative emissions such as, nitrosamines and nitramines, which are suspected to be potent carcinogens. It is therefore essential to assess the atmospheric fate of these amine emissions in the atmosphere by studying their atmospheric chemistry, dispersion and transport pathways away from the source and deposition in the environment, so as to be able to assess accurately the risk posed to human health and the natural environment. An important knowledge gap until recently has been the consideration of the atmospheric chemistry of these amine emissions simultaneously with dispersion and deposition studies so as to perform reliable human health and environmental risk assessments. The authors have developed a methodology to assess the distribution of such emissions away from a post-combustion facility by studying the atmospheric chemistry of monoethanolamine, the most commonly used solvent for CO2 capture, and those of the resulting degradation amines, methylamine and dimethylamine. This was coupled with dispersion modeling calculations (Manzoor, et al., 2014; Manzoor et al,2015). Rate coefficients describing the entire atmospheric chemistry schemes of the amines studied were evaluated employing quantum chemical theoretical and kinetic modeling calculations. These coefficients were used to solve the advection-dispersion-chemical equation using an atmospheric dispersion model, ADMS 5. This methodology is applicable to any size of a power plant and at any geographical location. In this paper, the humman health risk assessment is integrated in the modelling study. The methodology is demonstrated on a case study on the UK's largest capture pilot plant, Ferrybridge CCPilot 100+, to estimate the dispersion, chemical

Development of risk assessment methodology applicable to radioactive waste isolation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, J.E.; McGrath, P.E.; Cullingford, M.C.

1978-01-01

The risk from radioactive waste disposal in a deep geologic formation has not yet been completely assessed. A complete assessment should include credible estimates of the likelihood that radioactive materials would escape the repository and enter the human environment, and the magnitude of the resultant consequences in terms of human health effects. In addition, such an assessment should identify the dominant contributors to risk and, to the extent possible, quantify the uncertainties in risk estimates. A complete risk assessment may not be possible because of our limited knowledge of various aspects of geology and hydrogeology important to the long-term safety of a radioactive waste repository. The results of past analyses are not entirely consistent, perhaps as a direct result of the limited knowledge of the phenomena involved. It may, therefore, seem premature to attempt a rigorous risk analysis of radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media at the present time. However, the value of such analyses lies more in the insight and information they provide than in their prediction of absolute levels of risk

Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

2010-10-15

The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

Screening methodology for assessing potential health effects from municipal sludge incinerators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fradkin, L.; Bruins, R.J.F.; Lutkenhoff, S.D.; Stara, J.F.; Lomnitz, E.; Rubin, A.

1987-04-01

This paper describes a risk assessment of methodology for preliminary assessment of municipal sludge incineration. The methodology is a valuable tool in that it can be used for determining the hazard indices of chemical contaminants that might be present in sewage sludge used in incineration. The paper examines source characteristics (i.e. facility design), atmospheric dispersion of emission, and resulting human exposure and risk from sludge incinerators. Seven of the ten organics were screened for further investigation. An example of the calculations are presented for cadmium. (Refs. 5).

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Actual problems of environmental factors risk assessment on human health and ways to improve it

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.A. Rakhmanin

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of global trends and new areas of health risk assessment and analysis methodology caused by exposure to chemicals, environmental pollutants, and the contemporary issues of national assessment methodology. Most details are considered: risk assessment evidence base, modern methods and problems of carcinogenic risk assessment, hygienic regulation based on risk assessment, the economic aspects of the methodology. Particular attention is paid to reasons of recent years perceived gaps in the Russian methodological basis of the best foreign samples. The urgent measures to improve the national risk assessment methodology are proposed, the main of which are: legislative consolidation of the basic concepts of risk assessment, a further update of the methodology and the practice of hygienic regulation on the basis of risk assessment, improving the valuation of damage to human health, the tightening of the requirements to the developed regulatory guidance documents on risk assessment, as well as to the training and retraining of personnel in the risk assessment.

Methodology for the assessment of human health risks associated ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Studies have shown that the aquatic environment can be polluted by contaminates that are accumulated by freshwater fish and this may pose a health risk to the ... bioaccumulation potential and health risks of analytes, sound sampling design, risk assessment procedures and performing monitoring at different scales and ...

Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

OpenAIRE

Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

2014-01-01

A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Geologic modeling in risk assessment methodology for radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

1977-01-01

Under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the University of New Mexico is developing a computer based assessment methodology for evaluating public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of radioactive waste in geologic formations. Methodology incorporates a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. The release model and its application to a model repository in bedded salt is described. Fault trees are constructed to provide the relationships between various geologic and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material beyond the immediate environs of the repository. The environmental model includes: 1) the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, 2) pathways from these environmental concentrations, and 3) radiation dose to man. Finally, economic results are used to compare and assess various disposal configurations as a basis for formulatin

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

2015-01-01

An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

2015-07-01

An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

1987-01-01

The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Methodology for analyzing risk at nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Hosik; Lee, Nayoung; Ham, Taekyu; Seo, Janghoon

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A new methodology for evaluating the risk at nuclear facilities was developed. • Five measures reflecting all factors that should be concerned to assess risk were developed. • The attributes on NMAC and nuclear security culture are included as attributes for analyzing. • The newly developed methodology can be used to evaluate risk of both existing facility and future nuclear system. - Abstract: A methodology for evaluating risks at nuclear facilities is developed in this work. A series of measures is drawn from the analysis of factors that determine risks. Five measures are created to evaluate risks at nuclear facilities. These include the legal and institutional framework, material control, physical protection system effectiveness, human resources, and consequences. Evaluation attributes are developed for each measure and specific values are given in order to calculate the risk value quantitatively. Questionnaires are drawn up on whether or not a state has properly established a legal and regulatory framework (based on international standards). These questionnaires can be a useful measure for comparing the status of the physical protection regime between two countries. Analyzing an insider threat is not an easy task and no methodology has been developed for this purpose. In this study, attributes that could quantitatively evaluate an insider threat, in the case of an unauthorized removal of nuclear materials, are developed by adopting the Nuclear Material Accounting & Control (NMAC) system. The effectiveness of a physical protection system, P(E), could be analyzed by calculating the probability of interruption, P(I), and the probability of neutralization, P(N). In this study, the Tool for Evaluating Security System (TESS) code developed by KINAC is used to calculate P(I) and P(N). Consequence is an important measure used to analyze risks at nuclear facilities. This measure comprises radiological, economic, and social damage. Social and

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Insights from implementation of a risk management methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahn, J.A.; Germann, R.P.; Jacobs, R.R.

1992-01-01

In 1988, GPU Nuclear (GPUN) Corporation embarked on a research effort to identify or develop an appropriate methodology for proactively managing risks. The objective of this effort was to increase its ability to identify potential risks and to aid resource allocation decision making for risk control. Such a methodology was presented at a risk management symposium sponsored by GPUN in September of 1989. A pilot project based on this methodology has been conducted at GPUN to test and validate the elements of the methodology and to compare the results of its application with current corporate methods for guiding risk decision making. The pilot project also led to a follow-up policy-capturing study to elicit information about the various risk decision-making models of GPUN decision makers. The combination of these endeavors provided an opportunity to gain numerous insights with respect to understanding the real value of a risk management process, obtaining acceptance of and commitment to risk management and improving operational aspects of the methodology

Evolution of aging assessment methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCrea, L.; Dam, R.; Gold, R.

2011-01-01

Under the influence of organizations like the IAEA and INPO the expectations of the regulator and plant operators alike are driving the evolution of aging assessment methodologies. The key result is that these assessments need to be executed more efficiently while supporting risk informed thinking within a living process. Some recent trends impacting aging assessments include new standards from the regulator requiring more frequent updates of aging assessments (RD-334), and broader component coverage driven by equipment reliability program demands (INPO AP-913). These trends point to the need to be able to do aging assessment more efficiently, and to manage the configuration. Some of the challenges include increasing efficiency while maintaining completeness and minimizing error, employing a systematic, well defined approach while maintaining the flexibility to apply the right level of effort to achieve desired results, and in particular, assuring that Aging Related Degradation Mechanisms (ARDMs) are sufficiently addressed. Meeting these needs creates a natural synergy with the Preventive Maintenance living program and therefore lends itself to a more integrated approach. To support this program, the SYSTMSTM software has been enhanced to accommodate for the various facets of an integrated program while meeting the needs described above. The systematic processes in SYSTMS are built with the vision of supporting risk-informed decision making as part of a larger risk-based functional tools suite. This paper intends to show how the utilities can benefit from the cost savings associated with increased assessment efficiency, and utilizing Candu Energy Inc.'s CANDU-specific knowledge-base and experience in aging assessment to get it right the first time. (author)

Evolution of aging assessment methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCrea, L.; Dam, R.; Gold, R. [Candu Energy Inc., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

2011-07-01

Under the influence of organizations like the IAEA and INPO the expectations of the regulator and plant operators alike are driving the evolution of aging assessment methodologies. The key result is that these assessments need to be executed more efficiently while supporting risk informed thinking within a living process. Some recent trends impacting aging assessments include new standards from the regulator requiring more frequent updates of aging assessments (RD-334), and broader component coverage driven by equipment reliability program demands (INPO AP-913). These trends point to the need to be able to do aging assessment more efficiently, and to manage the configuration. Some of the challenges include increasing efficiency while maintaining completeness and minimizing error, employing a systematic, well defined approach while maintaining the flexibility to apply the right level of effort to achieve desired results, and in particular, assuring that Aging Related Degradation Mechanisms (ARDMs) are sufficiently addressed. Meeting these needs creates a natural synergy with the Preventive Maintenance living program and therefore lends itself to a more integrated approach. To support this program, the SYSTMSTM software has been enhanced to accommodate for the various facets of an integrated program while meeting the needs described above. The systematic processes in SYSTMS are built with the vision of supporting risk-informed decision making as part of a larger risk-based functional tools suite. This paper intends to show how the utilities can benefit from the cost savings associated with increased assessment efficiency, and utilizing Candu Energy Inc.'s CANDU-specific knowledge-base and experience in aging assessment to get it right the first time. (author)

Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

1995-06-01

This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

1995-01-01

This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

Science.gov (United States)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

2011-01-01

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

Assessment of hydrogen risk using advanced methodology for lumped parameter code-MELCOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duspiva, Jiri; Kujal, Bohumir

2007-01-01

The hydrogen risk is one of the most important containment integrity challenge during a severe accident progression at the VVER type reactors installed at the Czech NPPs. On the basis of recent comprehensive research results the general flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) criteria were formulated. The main objective of the new methodology developed in the NRI Rez was to prepare an analytical tool for the assessment of the hydrogen risk at the Czech NPPs in the course of a severe accident and also for the design of hydrogen removal system which should be able to prevent or at least minimize the threats of hydrogen detonation in containments. The major idea on which the development of models for the FA and DDT criteria was based is described in OECD state-of-art report (NEA, 2000). The module for the computation of FA criterion (often named σ-criterion) and DDT one (also named λ or Dorofeev criterion) was linked to the MELCOR 1.8.5 model of VVER-1000 containment. The most important feature of new model is that it makes possible to evaluate the both of the criteria for all compartments in the containment continuously during severe accident scenario progression. The containment model, which could be used for such a calculation, has to be very detailed owing to appropriate description of hydrogen distribution. New model was tested by calculation of hydrogen detonation risk in the VVER-1000 containment during severe accident scenario initiated by medium break LOCA. At present two more VVER-1000 severe accident scenarios have been analyzed. The mapping of a hydrogen detonation risk in individual compartments inside containment was performed. The results of analysis confirm that the risk of hydrogen detonation in the great majority of containment compartments during severe accidents is very high if the hydrogen removal system is not installed. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shinaishin, M.A.

1988-06-01

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shinaishin, M A

1988-06-15

The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

1981-01-01

The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

1995-05-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document

Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

2012-01-01

Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

CERN Document Server

Heimsch, Laura

2016-01-01

The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

Risk assessment for transport operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

1990-01-01

The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

2017-09-01

The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inmaculada Marques-Perez

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

2017-01-01

The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

Application of Bayesian network methodology to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chang Ju

2006-02-01

The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If one takes various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering some stochastic passive systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, it is believed that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this study proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. In this study an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network developed and verified using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a Monte-Carlo model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters, were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, this study could connect the results of probabilistic

Randomized clinical trials in dentistry: Risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodologic quality over the years 1955-2013.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Humam Saltaji

Full Text Available To examine the risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions and the development of these aspects over time.We included 540 randomized clinical trials from 64 selected systematic reviews. We extracted, in duplicate, details from each of the selected randomized clinical trials with respect to publication and trial characteristics, reporting and methodologic characteristics, and Cochrane risk of bias domains. We analyzed data using logistic regression and Chi-square statistics.Sequence generation was assessed to be inadequate (at unclear or high risk of bias in 68% (n = 367 of the trials, while allocation concealment was inadequate in the majority of trials (n = 464; 85.9%. Blinding of participants and blinding of the outcome assessment were judged to be inadequate in 28.5% (n = 154 and 40.5% (n = 219 of the trials, respectively. A sample size calculation before the initiation of the study was not performed/reported in 79.1% (n = 427 of the trials, while the sample size was assessed as adequate in only 17.6% (n = 95 of the trials. Two thirds of the trials were not described as double blinded (n = 358; 66.3%, while the method of blinding was appropriate in 53% (n = 286 of the trials. We identified a significant decrease over time (1955-2013 in the proportion of trials assessed as having inadequately addressed methodological quality items (P < 0.05 in 30 out of the 40 quality criteria, or as being inadequate (at high or unclear risk of bias in five domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: sequence generation, allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, other sources of bias, and overall risk of bias.The risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions have improved over time; however, further efforts that contribute to the development of more stringent

Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; El-Bassioni, A.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed

Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

2017-12-29

Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a

A proposed methodology for performing risk analysis of state radiation control programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornsife, W.P.

1996-01-01

This paper is comprised of viewgraphs from a conference presentation. Topics discussed include barriers to effective risk assessment and management, and real versus perceived risk for various radiation programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Calculation results for Pennsylvania are provided for low-level radioactive waste transportation risks, indoor radon risk, and cancer morbidity risk from x-rays. A methodology for prioritizing radiation regulatory programs based on risk is presented with calculations for various Pennsylvania programs

Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

2014-07-01

The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamano, Hidemasa, E-mail: yamano.hidemasa@jaea.go.jp; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

2016-11-15

Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

1996-07-01

When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

1993-01-01

The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

2004-04-15

Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

Modeling risk assessment for nuclear processing plants with LAVA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.T.; Tisinger, R.M.

1988-01-01

Using the Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (LAVA) methodology, the authors developed a model for assessing risks associated with nuclear processing plants. LAVA is a three-part systematic approach to risk assessment. The first part is the mathematical methodology; the second is the general personal computer-based software engine; and the third is the application itself. The methodology provides a framework for creating applications for the software engine to operate upon; all application-specific information is data. Using LAVA, the authors build knowledge-based expert systems to assess risks in applications systems comprising a subject system and a safeguards system. The subject system model is sets of threats, assets, and undesirable outcomes. The safeguards system model is sets of safeguards functions for protecting the assets from the threats by preventing or ameliorating the undesirable outcomes, sets of safeguards subfunctions whose performance determine whether the function is adequate and complete, and sets of issues, appearing as interactive questionnaires, whose measures (in both monetary and linguistic terms) define both the weaknesses in the safeguards system and the potential costs of an undesirable outcome occurring

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy: Report from a workshop ''developing a framework for assessing the risk from allergenic foods"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Madsen, C.B.; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.; Gendel, S.M.; Houben, G.F.; Hourihane, J.OB.; Mackie, A.; Mills, E.N.C.; Nørhede, P.; Taylor, S.L.; Crevel, R.W.R.

2009-01-01

A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods, to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move

Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

2015-05-15

This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Department of Energy's process waste assessment graded approach methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pemberton, S.E.

1994-03-01

As the initial phase of the formal waste minimization program, the Department of Energy requires assessments of all its waste-generating operations. These assessments, called process waste assessments (PWAs), are a tool which helps achieve the pollution prevention goals. The DOE complex is comprised of numerous sites located in many different states. The facilities as a whole represent a tremendous diversity of technologies, processes, and activities. Due to this diversity, there are also a wide variety and number of waste streams generated. Many of these waste streams are small, intermittent, and not of consistent composition. The PWA graded approach methodology addresses these complexities and recognizes that processes vary in the quantity of pollution they generate, as well as in the perceived risk and associated hazards. Therefore, the graded approach was developed to provide a cost-effective and flexible methodology which allows individual sites to prioritize their local concerns and align their efforts with the resources allocated. This presentation will describe a project sponsored by the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, Waste Minimization Division, which developed a graded approach methodology for use throughout the DOE. This methodology was initiated in FY93 through a combined effort of the following DOE/Defense Program sites: Kansas City Plant, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories. This presentation will describe the process waste assessment tool, benefits achieved through the completion of PWAs, DOE's graded approach methodology, and an update on the project's current status

ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Crespo Martínez

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

Risk management methodology for RBMN project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

2013-01-01

RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easterling, R.G.

1980-01-01

Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria

Methodological approaches to assessing of country’s financial capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.Yu. Polchanov

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This research is devoted to the theoretical basis of country’s financial capacity assessment, its specificities and algorithm. The aim of the investigation is the generalization of methodological approaches to evaluating country’s financial capacity. The author determines that the assessment involves preparatory, analytical, and final stages. The special attention is paid to the information based on the analysis, demands on it, impact of changes in methodology, dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The establishment of the united analytical center for assessment of financial capacity of the state for post-conflict recovery is proposed. The results of the critical review of the publications in this field have helped to improve the classification of country’s financial capacity assessment methods by providing some new attributes such as the focus of the evaluation and type of intelligence. The problem of using unlicensed software to assess the financial capacity of the state and the associated risk have not been left without attention.

Methodology in use for the assessment of carcinogenic risk. II. Radiation. Oncology overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-04-01

Oncology Overviews are a service of the International Cancer Research Data Bank (ICRDB) Program of the National Cancer Institute, intended to facilitate and promote the exchange of information between cancer scientists by keeping them aware of literature related to their research being published by other laboratories throughout the world. Each Oncology Overview represents a survey of the literature associated with a selected area of cancer research. It contains abstracts of articles which have been selected and organized by researchers associated with the field. Contents: Assessment of carcinogenic risk from environmental and occupational exposures to ionizing radiation; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation used for medical diagnosis or treatment; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation following nuclear bomb explosions; Comparison of risk from radiation sources with risk from nonradiation sources; Experimental studies to assess risk of carcinogenesis following exposure to ionizing radiation; Theoretical aspects of dose-response relationships in the assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; Public policy and standards for acceptable risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; General reviews on the assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiation

Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Dewes, Candida F; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Barsugli, Joseph J; Hobbins, Michael T; Kumar, Sanjiv

2017-01-01

Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models' expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

2003-01-01

The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Szabo Alina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomson, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

Overtopping hazards to port activities: Application of a new methodology to risk management (POrt Risk MAnagement Tool)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alises, Ana; Molina, Rafael; Gómez, Rebeca; Pery, Pascual; Castillo, Carmen

2014-01-01

In the past 20 years, the need of ports to serve a fleet whose dimensions are continuously increasing due to economies of scale, has derived on a port infrastructures growth with a trend to look for greater drafts at deeper waters and therefore the protection structures built in the last years have been increasingly exposed to severer maritime climate action. Consequently, overtopping phenomenon has been identified as a potential risk factor able to cause structural damages and operative failure modes to vulnerable economic activities located at these port facilities. Port activities must be developed ensuring operative and safety conditions what imply reducing uncertainties of overtopping phenomena by using prediction methods which may allow overtopping risk management. This paper provides a risk assessment methodology which is integrated into an overtopping risk management framework to cope with safety problems in port exploitation. Overtopping risk value is measured by combining probability of occurrence of an undesirable event together with its consequences, estimated in terms of costs or delays and given in base of the vulnerability of the affected port system. The development of this methodology is described and finally applied to a real case study what seems to reinforce the validity of the proposed method to overtopping risk assessment. - Highlights: • Infrastructure risk assessment involves both probabilistic and economic techniques. • Risk equation is posed by the combination of probability, vulnerability and cost. • Port infrastructures' vulnerability level depends on climate agents' action. • Economic value of natural hazards consequences is linked with vulnerability level. • Project planning process should be done taking into account the project's risk distribution

A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Borst

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM – Risk Map Germany – Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Legal basis for risk analysis methodology while ensuring food safety in the Eurasian Economic union and the Republic of Belarus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E.V. Fedorenko

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Health risk analysis methodology is an internationally recognized tool for ensuring food safety. Three main elements of risk analysis are risk assessment, risk management and risk communication to inform the interested parties on the risk, are legislated and implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Republic of Belarus. There is a corresponding organizational and functional framework for the application of risk analysis methodology as in the justification of production safety indicators and the implementation of public health surveillance. Common methodological approaches and criteria for evaluating public health risk are determined, which are used in the development and application of food safety requirements. Risk assessment can be used in justifying the indicators of safety (contaminants, food additives, and evaluating the effectiveness of programs on enrichment of food with micronutrients.

Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, V. de.

1984-01-01

This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

Cost Model for Risk Assessment of Company Operation in Audit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. V.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article explores the approach to assessing the risk of company activities termination by building a cost model. This model gives auditors information on managers’ understanding of factors influencing change in the value of assets and liabilities, and the methods to identify it in more effective and reliable ways. Based on this information, the auditor can assess the adequacy of use of the assumption on continuity of company operation by management personnel when preparing financial statements. Financial uncertainty entails real manifestations of factors creating risks of the occurrence of costs, revenue losses due their manifestations, which in the long run can be a reason for termination of company operation, and, therefore, need to be foreseen in the auditor’s assessment of the adequacy of use of the continuity assumption when preparing financial statements by company management. The purpose of the study is to explore and develop a methodology for use of cost models to assess the risk of termination of company operation in audit. The issue of methodology for assessing the audit risk through analyzing methods for company valuation has not been dealt with. The review of methodologies for assessing the risks of termination of company operation in course of audit gives grounds for the conclusion that use of cost models can be an effective methodology for identification and assessment of such risks. The analysis of the above methods gives understanding of the existing system for company valuation, integrated into the management system, and the consequences of its use, i. e. comparison of the asset price data with the accounting data and the market value of the asset data. Overvalued or undervalued company assets may be a sign of future sale or liquidation of a company, which may signal on high probability of termination of company operation. A wrong choice or application of valuation methods can be indicative of the risk of non

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

ArgueSecure: Out-of-the-box Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ionita, Dan; Kegel, Roeland Hendrik,Pieter; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Baltuta, Andrei

Most established security risk assessment methodologies aim to produce ranked lists of risks. But ranking requires quantification of risks, which in turn relies on data which may not be available or estimations which might not be accurate. As an alternative, we have previously proposed

Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1992-04-01

Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

1992-04-01

Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis

A methodology to assess the economic impact of power storage technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Ghandour, Laila; Johnson, Timothy C

2017-08-13

We present a methodology for assessing the economic impact of power storage technologies. The methodology is founded on classical approaches to the optimal stopping of stochastic processes but involves an innovation that circumvents the need to, ex ante , identify the form of a driving process and works directly on observed data, avoiding model risks. Power storage is regarded as a complement to the intermittent output of renewable energy generators and is therefore important in contributing to the reduction of carbon-intensive power generation. Our aim is to present a methodology suitable for use by policy makers that is simple to maintain, adaptable to different technologies and easy to interpret. The methodology has benefits over current techniques and is able to value, by identifying a viable optimal operational strategy, a conceived storage facility based on compressed air technology operating in the UK.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

1988-01-01

This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemysław Borkowski

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

2002-01-01

No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

2002-01-01

No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Science.gov (United States)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

2017-01-15

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. I. Trubei

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

2009-01-01

modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

Modern Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants High-Voltage Substations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ioan, S.; Hurdubetiu, S.; Marza, F.; Mocanu, M.; Stefan, M.

2002-01-01

The paper describes a first Romanian attempt to set up the methodology for risk assessment and control within high-voltage substations, developed for the Nuclear power plant in Cernavoda (Romania). Considering the present risk assessment methods the MENER Project will develop a new methodology, in line with the European Community legislation and with the specific regional needs. In order to correctly shape the necessary resources required by a risk analysis a large size enterprise (a nuclear power plant) is selected and the following five indicators will be estimated: the economic profit, environmental risk, indirect (future) risk, technology improvement and physic and psychological risk. The results are expected to considerably facilitate risk assessment, by: evaluating project acceptability; evaluating equipment compliance to regulatory criteria; estimating excluding clearances; easing the design of emergency programmes; identifying the equipment use restrictions; identifying the risk sources; selecting the maintenance and risk reduction methods; testing the procedures leading to future regulatory norms; suitability of the risk management system modification. The immediate result of employing modern risk assessment methods could be the decrease by one third of the expenses required by environment protection, staff health and labor safety and quality management. (author)

Application of the risk-informed methodology for APR1400 P-T limits curve

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, K.; Namgung, I. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2014-07-01

A reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a nuclear power plant has operational limits of pressure and temperature to prevent a potential drastic propagation of cracks due to brittle fracture. We call it a pressure-temperature limits curve (P-T limits curve). Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, provides deterministic procedures to develop the P-T limits curve for the reactor pressure vessel. Recently, an alternative risk-informed methodology has been added in the ASME Code. Risk-informed means that we can consider insights from a probabilistic risk assessment by using this methodology. This alternative methodology provides a simple procedure to develop risk-informed P-T limits for heat up, cool down, and hydrostatic test events. The risk-informed P-T limits curve is known to provide more operational flexibility, particularly for reactor pressure vessels with relatively high irradiation levels and radiation sensitive materials. In this paper, we developed both the deterministic and a risk-informed P-T limits curve for an APR1400 reactor using Appendix G of the ASME Code, Section XI and compare the results in terms of additional operational margin. (author)

Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Valentina Tihulca

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Environmental risk assessment (ERA is mandatory for all new applications for centralized marketing authorization or national regardless of their legal basis. ERA aims to protect the environment. Risk assessment has two phases of veterinary product evaluation possible role of exposure and its effects. Phase I of the ERA isbased on filling a decision tree with 19 questions. If the answers to these questions do not stop the assessment at this stage then is advancing to Phase II. It uses a two stage approach stage A and stage B. The first stage, stage A, studies using simple, less expensive studies. I f the assessment is not complete, then is appealed to Step B to drill ERA. If there is still a risk indicator after filling and assessment in stage B, then, to mitigate risk, is recommended the file discussing and of the proposals for additional data.

Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

2017-03-01

The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Escuder-Bueno

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Assessment of methodologies for radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoos, I.R.

1978-01-01

No quantitative methodology is adequate to encompass and assess all the risks, no risk/benefit calculation is fine-tuned enough to supply decision-makers with the full range and all of the dimensions. Quality assurance cannot be conceived in terms of systems design alone, but must be maintained vigilantly and with integrity throughout the process. The responsibility of the NRC is fairly well established with respect to overall reactor safety. With respect to the management of radioactive wastes, its mission is not yet so clearly delineated. Herein lies a challenge and an opportunity. Where the known quantitative methodologies are restrictive and likely to have negative feedback effect on authority and public support, the broader lens and the bolder thrust are called for. The cozy cocoon of figures ultimately protects no one. The Commission, having acknowledged that the management of radioactive wastes is not merely a technological matter can now take the socially responsible position of exploring as fully and confronting as candidly as possible the total range of dimensions involved. Paradoxically, it is Charles J. Hitch, intellectual progenitor of the methodology, who observes that we may be missing the meaning of his message by relying too heavily on quantitative analysis and thus defining our task too narrowly. We live in a closed system, in which science and technology, politics and economics, and, above all, social and human elements interact, sometimes to create the problems, sometimes to articulate the questions, and sometimes to find viable solutions

Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.

1975-01-01

The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

Application of the integrated safety assessment methodology to the protection of electric systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hortal, Javier; Izquierdo, Jose M.

1996-01-01

The generalization of classical techniques for risk assessment incorporating dynamic effects is the main objective of the Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology, as practical implementation of Protection Theory. Transient stability, contingency analysis and protection setpoint verification in electric power systems are particularly appropriate domains of application, since the coupling of reliability and dynamic analysis in the protection assessment process is being increasingly demanded. Suitable techniques for dynamic simulation of sequences of switching events in power systems are derived from the use of quasi-linear equation solution algorithms. The application of the methodology, step by step, is illustrated in a simple but representative example

Application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology to fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piet, S.J.

1985-07-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools are applied to general fusion issues in a systematic way, generally qualitatively. The potential value of PRA to general fusion safety and economic issues is discussed. Several important design insights result: possible fault interactions must be minimized (decouple fault conditions), inherently safe designs must include provision for passively handling loss of site power and loss of coolant conditions, the reliability of the vacuum boundary appears vital to maximizing facility availabilty and minimizing safety risk, and economic analyses appear to be incomplete without consideration of potential availability loss from forced outrages. A modification to PRA formalism is introduced, called the fault interaction matrix. The fault interaction matrix contains information concerning what initial fault condition could lead to other fault conditions and with what frequency. Thus, the fault interaction matrix represents a way to present and measure the degree to which a designer has decoupled possible fault conditions in his design

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

A methodology for estimating potential doses and risks from recycling U.S. Department of Energy radioactive scrap metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKinney, J.A.

1995-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering writing regulations for the controlled use of materials originating from radioactively contaminated zones which may be recyclable. These materials include metals, such as steel (carbon and stainless), nickel, copper, aluminum and lead, from the decommissioning of federal, and non-federal facilities. To develop criteria for the release of such materials, a risk analysis of all potential exposure pathways should be conducted. These pathways include direct exposure to the recycled material by the public and workers, both individual and collective, as well as numerous other potential exposure pathways in the life of the material. EPA has developed a risk assessment methodology for estimating doses and risks associated with recycling radioactive scrap metals. This methodology was applied to metal belonging to the U.S. Department of Energy. This paper will discuss the draft EPA risk assessment methodology as a tool for estimating doses and risks from recycling. (author)

Methodology for assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources for the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal

Science.gov (United States)

Charpentier, Ronald R.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, D.L.

2017-11-15

The methodological procedures used in the geologic assessments of the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) were based largely on the methodology developed for the 2000 U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment. The main variables were probability distributions for numbers and sizes of undiscovered accumulations with an associated risk of occurrence. The CARA methodology expanded on the previous methodology in providing additional tools and procedures more applicable to the many Arctic basins that have little or no exploration history. Most importantly, geologic analogs from a database constructed for this study were used in many of the assessments to constrain numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations.

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

2007-01-01

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

2007-11-15

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

2017-01-01

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

Hazard waste risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Risk Assessment Review Group report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, H.W.; Budnitz, R.J.; Kouts, H.J.C.; Loewenstein, W.B.; Rowe, W.D.; von Hippel, F.; Zachariasen, F.

1978-09-01

The Risk Assessment Review Group was organized by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission on July 1, 1977, with four elements to its charter: clarify the achievements and limitations of WASH-1400, the ''Rasmussen Report''; assess the peer comments thereon, and responses to those comments; study the present state of such risk assessment methodology; and recommend to the Commission how (and whether) such methodology can be used in the regulatory and licensing process. Areas of study include: risk assessment methodologies; statistical issues; completeness; the data base; and the WASH-1400 assessment of the damage to human health from radiation after a postulated accident. Specific items discussed include: Browns Ferry; common cause failure; human factors; format and scrutability; the peer review process; earthquakes; risk perception; allegations by UCS concerning WASH-1400 treatment of quality assurance and quality control; current role of probabilistic methods in the regulatory process; acts of violence; ATWS; influence of design defects in quality assurance failures; and calculation of population doses from given releases of radionuclides

A risk-based sensor placement methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

2008-01-01

A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

1994-01-01

The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

Development Methodology of a Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment Tool for Digital I and C Systems in Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. K.; Song, J. G.; Lee, Y. J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.

2011-01-01

With the use of digital computers and communication networks the hot issues on cyber security were raised about 10 years ago. The scope of cyber security application has now been extended from the safety Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system to safety important systems, plant security system, and emergency preparedness system. Therefore, cyber security should be assessed and managed systematically throughout the development life cycle of I and C systems in order for their digital assets to be protected from cyber attacks. Fig. 1 shows the concept of a cyber security risk management of digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A lot of cyber security risk assessment methods, techniques, and supported tools have been developed for Information Technology (IT) systems, but they have not been utilized widely for cyber security risk assessments of the digital I and C systems in NPPs. The main reason is a difference in goals between IT systems and nuclear I and C systems. Confidentiality is important in IT systems, but availability and integrity are important in nuclear I and C systems. Last year, it was started to develop a software tool to be specialized for the development process of nuclear I and C systems. This paper presents a development methodology of the Cyber Security Risk analysis and Assessment Tool (CSRAT) for the digital I and C systems in NPP

Development Methodology of a Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment Tool for Digital I and C Systems in Nuclear Power Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. K.; Song, J. G.; Lee, Y. J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-05-15

With the use of digital computers and communication networks the hot issues on cyber security were raised about 10 years ago. The scope of cyber security application has now been extended from the safety Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system to safety important systems, plant security system, and emergency preparedness system. Therefore, cyber security should be assessed and managed systematically throughout the development life cycle of I and C systems in order for their digital assets to be protected from cyber attacks. Fig. 1 shows the concept of a cyber security risk management of digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A lot of cyber security risk assessment methods, techniques, and supported tools have been developed for Information Technology (IT) systems, but they have not been utilized widely for cyber security risk assessments of the digital I and C systems in NPPs. The main reason is a difference in goals between IT systems and nuclear I and C systems. Confidentiality is important in IT systems, but availability and integrity are important in nuclear I and C systems. Last year, it was started to develop a software tool to be specialized for the development process of nuclear I and C systems. This paper presents a development methodology of the Cyber Security Risk analysis and Assessment Tool (CSRAT) for the digital I and C systems in NPP

Development of assessment methodology for plant configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Chang Hyun; You, Young Woo; Kim, Yoon Ik; Yang, Hui Chang; Huh, Byeong Gill; Lee, Dong Won; Ahn, Gwan Won [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2001-03-15

The purpose of this study IS the development of effective and overall assessment methodology which reflects the characteristics of plants for the surveillance, maintenance, repair and operation of nuclear power plants. In this study, recent researches are surveyed and concept definition, procedures, current PSA methodologies, implementation of various models are evaluated. Through this survey, systematic assessment methodology is suggested. Configuration control assessment methodology suggested in this study for the purpose of the development of configuration control methodology reflecting the characteristics of Korean NPPs, can be utilized as the supplement of current PSA methodologies.

Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen; Guerrero, Mayka

2013-01-01

This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with 131 I and 99 m Tc and 18 F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments

Oil spill risk assessment in maritime transportation networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yudhbir, L.; Iakovou, E.

2005-01-01

Commercial shippers and regulatory agencies face the challenge of evaluating the merits of various alternative policies for the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. This paper presented a new risk estimation and assignment methodology that assesses the risk costs for the bodies of water where shipping lanes exist. The methodology is based on historical spills and uses causal data to estimate risk cost between 2 points of reference for numerous products transported by a variety of vessels. In response to public concerns regarding the environmental impacts of accidental spills from tanker ships, laws have been imposed on companies for all costs relating to environmental damage. This measure has prompted the oil industry to take greater responsibility, but a better understanding of tanker re-routing on environmental sensitive areas is needed in order to implement detailed emergency response plans and greater safety precautions. This methodology addressed the need for an efficient maritime transportation system that provides routing for various vessels carrying different petroleum products. The risk estimation methodology successfully modeled a multi-objective, multi-commodity routing problem. 23 refs., 3 figs

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

2016-08-01

In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural phenomena risk assessment at Rocky Flats Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foppe, T.L.

1985-01-01

A realistic approach is currently being used at the Rocky Flats Plant to assess the risks of natural phenomena events. The methodology addresses frequency of occurrence estimates, damage stress on the facility and vital equipment, material-at-risk, release fractions and source terms, leakpath, dispersion and dosimetric models, risk curves, and an uncertainty analysis. 28 references, 1 figure

Research on Methodology to Prioritize Critical Digital Assets based on Nuclear Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Wonjik; Kwon, Kookheui; Kim, Hyundoo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Digital systems are used in nuclear facilities to monitor and control various types of field devices, as well as to obtain and store vital information. Therefore, it is getting important for nuclear facilities to protect digital systems from cyber-attack in terms of safety operation and public health since cyber compromise of these systems could lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. Based on KINAC/RS-015 which is a cyber security regulatory standard, regulatory activities for cyber security at nuclear facilities generally focus on critical digital assets (CDAs) which are safety, security, and emergency preparedness related digital assets. Critical digital assets are estimated over 60% among all digital assets in a nuclear power plant. Therefore, it was required to prioritize critical digital assets to improve efficiency of regulation and implementation. In this paper, the research status on methodology development to prioritize critical digital assets based on nuclear risk assessment will be introduced. In this paper, to derive digital asset directly affect accident, PRA results (ET, FT, and minimal cut set) are analyzed. According to result of analysis, digital systems related to CD are derived ESF-CCS (safety-related component control system) and Process-CCS (non-safety-related component control system) as well as Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). These digital assets can be identified Vital Digital Asset (VDA). Hereafter, to develop general methodology which was identified VDA related to accident among CDAs, (1) method using result of minimal cut set in PRA model will be studied and (2) method quantifying result of Digital I and C PRA which is performed to reflect all digital cabinet related to system in FT will be studied.

Research on Methodology to Prioritize Critical Digital Assets based on Nuclear Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Wonjik; Kwon, Kookheui; Kim, Hyundoo

2016-01-01

Digital systems are used in nuclear facilities to monitor and control various types of field devices, as well as to obtain and store vital information. Therefore, it is getting important for nuclear facilities to protect digital systems from cyber-attack in terms of safety operation and public health since cyber compromise of these systems could lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. Based on KINAC/RS-015 which is a cyber security regulatory standard, regulatory activities for cyber security at nuclear facilities generally focus on critical digital assets (CDAs) which are safety, security, and emergency preparedness related digital assets. Critical digital assets are estimated over 60% among all digital assets in a nuclear power plant. Therefore, it was required to prioritize critical digital assets to improve efficiency of regulation and implementation. In this paper, the research status on methodology development to prioritize critical digital assets based on nuclear risk assessment will be introduced. In this paper, to derive digital asset directly affect accident, PRA results (ET, FT, and minimal cut set) are analyzed. According to result of analysis, digital systems related to CD are derived ESF-CCS (safety-related component control system) and Process-CCS (non-safety-related component control system) as well as Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). These digital assets can be identified Vital Digital Asset (VDA). Hereafter, to develop general methodology which was identified VDA related to accident among CDAs, (1) method using result of minimal cut set in PRA model will be studied and (2) method quantifying result of Digital I and C PRA which is performed to reflect all digital cabinet related to system in FT will be studied

TRECII: a computer program for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, A.L.

1980-05-01

A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII is designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

Science.gov (United States)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ARMEAN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

Assessment methodology applicable to safe decommissioning of Romanian VVR-S research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baniu, O.; Vladescu, G.; Vidican, D.; Penescu, M.

2002-01-01

The paper contains the results of research activity performed by CITON specialists regarding the assessment methodology intended to be applied to safe decommissioning of the research reactors, developed taking into account specific conditions of the Romanian VVR-S Research Reactor. The Romanian VVR-S Research Reactor is an old reactor (1957) and its Decommissioning Plan is under study. The main topics of paper are as follows: Safety approach of nuclear facilities decommissioning. Applicable safety principles; Main steps of the proposed assessment methodology; Generic content of Decommissioning Plan. Main decommissioning activities. Discussion about the proposed Decommissioning Plan for Romanian Research Reactor; Safety risks which may occur during decommissioning activities. Normal decommissioning operations. Fault conditions. Internal and external hazards; Typical development of a scenario. Features, Events and Processes List. Exposure pathways. Calculation methodology. (author)

Q methodology, risk training and quality management.

Science.gov (United States)

McKeown, M; Hinks, M; Stowell-Smith, M; Mercer, D; Forster, J

1999-01-01

The results of a Q methodological study of professional understandings of the notion of risk in mental health services within the UK are discussed in relation to the relevance for staff training and quality assurance. The study attempted to access the diversity of understandings of risk issues amongst a multi-professional group of staff (n = 60) attending inter-agency risk training workshops in 1998. Q methodology is presented as both an appropriate means for such inquiry and as a novel experiential technique for training purposes. A tentative argument is advanced that the qualitative accounts generated by Q research could assist in systematic reviews of quality, complementing the singularly quantitative approaches typically represented in the audit process.

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

1992-01-01

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

Methodology to assess the radiological sensitivity of soils: Application to Spanish soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trueba Alonso, C.

2005-01-01

A methodology, based on standard physical and chemical soil properties, has been developed to estimate the radiological sensitivity of soils to a 137 C s and 90 S r contamination. In this framework, the soil radiological sensitivity is defined as the soil capability to mobilise or to retain these radionuclides. The purpose of this methodology is to assess, in terms of radiological sensitivity indexes, the behaviour of 137 C s and 90 S r in soils and their fluxes to man, considering two exposure pathways, the external irradiation exposure and the internal exposure from ingestion. The methodology is applied to the great variety of soil types found in Spain, where the soil profile is the reference unit for the assessment. The results for these soil types show, that their basic soil properties are the key to categorise the radiological sensitivity according to the risks considered. The final categorisation allows to identify soils specially sensible and improves the radiological impact assessment predictions. (Author)

Remedial Action Assessment System: A computer-based methodology for conducting feasibility studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, M.K.; Buelt, J.L.; Stottlemyre, J.A.

1991-02-01

Because of the complexity and number of potential waste sites facing the US Department of Energy (DOE) for potential cleanup, DOE is supporting the development of a computer-based methodology to streamline the remedial investigation/feasibility study process. The Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS), can be used for screening, linking, and evaluating established technology processes in support of conducting feasibility studies. It is also intended to do the same in support of corrective measures studies. The user interface employs menus, windows, help features, and graphical information while RAAS is in operation. Object-oriented programming is used to link unit processes into sets of compatible processes that form appropriate remedial alternatives. Once the remedial alternatives are formed, the RAAS methodology can evaluate them in terms of effectiveness, implementability, and cost. RAAS will access a user-selected risk assessment code to determine the reduction of risk after remedial action by each recommended alternative. The methodology will also help determine the implementability of the remedial alternatives at a site and access cost estimating tools to provide estimates of capital, operating, and maintenance costs. This paper presents the characteristics of two RAAS prototypes currently being developed. These include the RAAS Technology Information System, which accesses graphical, tabular and textual information about technologies, and the main RAAS methodology, which screens, links, and evaluates remedial technologies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heikkeroe, Topi

2006-01-01

This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

1996-01-01

The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document

Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

2010-01-01

Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive materials and nuclear explosives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.; Wilson, R.K.; Hartman, W.F.

1991-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has the lead technical role for probabilistic risk assessments of transportation of nuclear weapons, components, and special nuclear material in support of the US Department of Energy. The emphasis of the risk assessments is on evaluating the probability of inadvertent disposal of radioactive material and the consequences of such a release. This paper will provide an overview of the methodology being developed for the risk assessment and will discuss the interpretation and use of the results. The advantages and disadvantages of using risk assessment as an alternative to performance-based criteria for packaging will be described. 2 refs., 1 fig

Usefulness of alternative integrative assessment methodologies in public decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erickson, L. E.; Litchfield, J. W.; Currie, J. W.; McDonald, C. L.; Adams, R. C.

1978-07-01

Many diverse social, economic, and environmental effects are associated with each of the available energy development alternatives. The assessment of the costs, risks, and benefits of these energy development options is an important function of the U. S. Department of Energy. This task is more difficult when no single alternative is better than the others in all respects. This paper compares benefit-cost and multi-attribute utility analysis as decision aids for these more difficult and more common assessment cases. PNL has developed expertise in making these assessments through its involvement since the Calvert Cliffs decision in both the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements and the development of methods to make these statements more thorough and responsive to the spirit of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). Since 1973 PNL has had continuing efforts to quantify, value, and compare all of the major factors which influence the overall impacts of energy development options. An important part of this work has been the measurement and incorporation of the relative values which community groups place on these conflicting factors. Such difficult assessment problems could be approached in many ways including the use of benefit-cost or multi-attribute utility analysis. This paper addresses the following questions: (1) Should an integrative assessment methodology be used for the overall assessment of these costs, risks, and benefits. (2) If an integrative assessment methodology is to be used, what alternative methods are available and what should be the basis for selecting a method. (3) Is it possible to use one of the available alternatives for one portion of the assessment and another for another portion of the assessment. The answers to these questions presented in this report are applicable to most public decision problems.

The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, J.T.

1998-01-01

Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

1999-01-01

Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

2012-03-01

Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

USGS Methodology for Assessing Continuous Petroleum Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a new quantitative methodology for assessing resources in continuous (unconventional) petroleum deposits. Continuous petroleum resources include shale gas, coalbed gas, and other oil and gas deposits in low-permeability ("tight") reservoirs. The methodology is based on an approach combining geologic understanding with well productivities. The methodology is probabilistic, with both input and output variables as probability distributions, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the estimates. The new methodology is an improvement of previous USGS methodologies in that it better accommodates the uncertainties in undrilled or minimally drilled deposits that must be assessed using analogs. The publication is a collection of PowerPoint slides with accompanying comments.

Current status and new trends in the methodology of safety assessment for near surface disposal facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilie, Petre; Didita, Liana; Danchiv, Alexandru

2008-01-01

The main goal of this paper is to present the status of the safety assessment methodology at the end of IAEA CRP 'Application of Safety Assessment Methodology for Near-Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities (ASAM)', and the new trends outlined at the launch of the follow-up project 'Practical Implementation of Safety Assessment Methodologies in a Context of Safety Case of Near-Surface Facilities (PRISM)'. Over the duration of the ASAM project, the ISAM methodology was confirmed as providing a good framework for conducting safety assessment calculations. In contrast, ASAM project identified the limitations of the ISAM methodology as currently formulated. The major limitations are situated in the area of the use of safety assessment for informing practical decisions about alternative waste and risk management strategies for real disposal sites. As a result of the limitation of the ISAM methodology, the PRISM project is established as an extension of the ISAM and ASAM projects. Based on the outcomes of the ASAM project, the main objective of the PRISM project are: 1 - to develop an overview of what constitutes an adequate safety case and safety assessment with a view to supporting decision making processes; 2 - to provide practical illustrations of how the safety assessment methodology could be used for addressing some specific issues arising from the ASAM project and national cases; 3 - to support harmonization with the IAEA's international safety standards. (authors)

WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2016-06-15

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-07-18

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

Health effects of risk-assessment categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

1983-10-01

Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

Health effects of risk-assessment categories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

1983-10-01

Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

Development of assessment methodology for plant configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cheong, Chang Hyeon; Yu, Yeong Woo; Cho, Jae Seon; Kim, Ju Yeol; Kim, Yun Ik; Yang, Hui Chang; Park, Gang Min; Hur, Byeong Gil [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1999-03-15

The purpose of this study is the development of effective and overall assessment methodology which reflects the characteristics of plants for the surveillance, maintenance, repair and operation of Nuclear Power Plant. The development of this methodology can contribute to enhance safety. In the first year of this study, recent researches are surveyed and concept definition, procedures, current PSA methodologies, implementation of various models are evaluated. Through this survey, systematic assessment methodology is suggested.

IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) Project for Regulated Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon

2016-01-01

Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) is a coordinate research project. The objectives of the NUSAM project is to establish a risk informed, performance-based methodological framework in a systematic, structured, comprehensive and appropriately transparent manner; to provide an environment for the sharing and transfer of knowledge and experience; and to provide guidance on, and practical examples of good practices in assessing the security of nuclear and other radioactive materials, as well as associated facilities and activities. The author worked as an IAEA scientific secretary of the NUAM project from 2013 to 2015. IAEA launched this project in 2013 and performed many activities: meetings, document development, table-top exercises and computer simulations. Now the project is in the final stage and will be concluded in the late 2016. The project will produce documents on NUSAM assessment methods and case study documents on NPP, Irradiator Facility and Transport. South Korea as a main contributor to this project will get benefits from the NUSAM. In 2014, South Korea introduced force-on-force exercises, which could be used as the assessment of physical protection system by the methods of NUSAM

IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) Project for Regulated Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Sung Soon [Korea Nuclear Non-proliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) is a coordinate research project. The objectives of the NUSAM project is to establish a risk informed, performance-based methodological framework in a systematic, structured, comprehensive and appropriately transparent manner; to provide an environment for the sharing and transfer of knowledge and experience; and to provide guidance on, and practical examples of good practices in assessing the security of nuclear and other radioactive materials, as well as associated facilities and activities. The author worked as an IAEA scientific secretary of the NUAM project from 2013 to 2015. IAEA launched this project in 2013 and performed many activities: meetings, document development, table-top exercises and computer simulations. Now the project is in the final stage and will be concluded in the late 2016. The project will produce documents on NUSAM assessment methods and case study documents on NPP, Irradiator Facility and Transport. South Korea as a main contributor to this project will get benefits from the NUSAM. In 2014, South Korea introduced force-on-force exercises, which could be used as the assessment of physical protection system by the methods of NUSAM.

The Department of Homeland Security's Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution, Issues, and Options for Congress

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Masse, Todd; O'Neil, Siobhan; Rollins, John

2007-01-01

.... Secretary Chertoff has stated "DHS must base its work on priorities driven by risk" and, increasingly, risk assessment and subsequent risk mitigation have influenced all of the department's efforts...

Health economic assessment: a methodological primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Simoens, Steven

2009-12-01

This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

Health Economic Assessment: A Methodological Primer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Simoens

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs, an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis, and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

An Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology for Generation IV Nuclear Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leahy, Timothy J.

2010-01-01

The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Risk and Safety Working Group (RSWG) was created to develop an effective approach for the safety of Generation IV advanced nuclear energy systems. Early work of the RSWG focused on defining a safety philosophy founded on lessons learned from current and prior generations of nuclear technologies, and on identifying technology characteristics that may help achieve Generation IV safety goals. More recent RSWG work has focused on the definition of an integrated safety assessment methodology for evaluating the safety of Generation IV systems. The methodology, tentatively called ISAM, is an integrated 'toolkit' consisting of analytical techniques that are available and matched to appropriate stages of Generation IV system concept development. The integrated methodology is intended to yield safety-related insights that help actively drive the evolving design throughout the technology development cycle, potentially resulting in enhanced safety, reduced costs, and shortened development time.

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Low-dose radiation epidemiological studies: an assessment of methodological problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modan, B.

1991-01-01

The present report attempts to assess the problems inherent in the analysis of low dose radiation studies, with emphasis on possible sources of methodological errors in the published data, and the consequent relevance to risk estimates. The published data examined concerned populations exposed to nuclear sources such as fallout, weapons' test or in the vicinity of nuclear reactors, occupational exposure, intra-uterine diagnostic X-rays, scattered radiation following X-ray therapy and background irradiation. (UK)

Multi-scale landslide risk assessment in Cuba

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castellanos Abella, E.A.

2008-01-01

Landslides cause a considerable amount of damage in the mountainous regions of Cuba, which cover about 25% of the territory. Until now, only a limited amount of research has been carried out in the field of landslide risk assessment in the country. This research presents a methodology and its

Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

2011-08-15

Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

2011-01-01

Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a

Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological Consideration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard J. Chasdi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available A recurring question posed to researchers is whether or not terrorism poses similar degrees of risk as other man-made or natural disasters. There are some specialists, such as John Mueller, who argue that somewhat ironically, the threat of terrorism is vastly exaggerated.[1] This begs the question : compared to what? The underlying aim of this Research Note is to point out some basic methodological and contextual issues to consider, rather than making an attempt to provide hard answers regarding relative individual and collective risks. However, an effort is made to place some empirical findings into appropriate political and social contexts. The framework for discussion includes: basic conceptual problems regarding the notion of “risk”; a comparison of certain basic terrorism incident rates with rates for homicides and illness; and identification of possible future directions to gauge risk assessment within the context of a more holistic systems perspective. 

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively.

A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively

Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ragozin, A.L.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Ecological risk assessment and natural resource management on the Outer Continental Shelf

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goeke, G.; Roscigno, P.F.

1993-01-01

Since 1988 beginning with the Drilling Impact Assessment Task Force, Minerals Management Service (MMS) has used formal risk analysis methodologies in the Gulf of Mexico to determine the potential impact of gas and oil activities son natural resources. In the process, a list of assumptions, critical for the assessment of potential impacts, was generated. These assumptions were incorporated into a scenario where several levels of certainty described the hazards in terms of expected frequency of effects and the seriousness of the consequences. A risk matrix was generated from these assumptions and was used to generate a risk assessment for the various impact-producing factors on ecological endpoints. Recommendations for risk management were also provided so that decision-makers were given insight into acceptable/unacceptable levels of risk. This process insured that those issues with the highest potential impact were given the highest priority in terms of resources. One of the most important aspect so f the development of a risk assessment was determining the frequency of effects of the impact-producing factors. A paucity of data concerning the effects of impact-producing factors on estuarine and marine ecosystems remains the primary limiting factor in the development of ecological risk assessments. Presented here is a broad outline of the risk assessment methodology using chemosynthetic communities found in the Gulf of Mexico as an example

Guidance on assessing the methodological and reporting quality of toxicologically relevant studies: A scoping review.

Science.gov (United States)

Samuel, Gbeminiyi O; Hoffmann, Sebastian; Wright, Robert A; Lalu, Manoj Mathew; Patlewicz, Grace; Becker, Richard A; DeGeorge, George L; Fergusson, Dean; Hartung, Thomas; Lewis, R Jeffrey; Stephens, Martin L

2016-01-01

Assessments of methodological and reporting quality are critical to adequately judging the credibility of a study's conclusions and to gauging its potential reproducibility. To aid those seeking to assess the methodological or reporting quality of studies relevant to toxicology, we conducted a scoping review of the available guidance with respect to four types of studies: in vivo and in vitro, (quantitative) structure-activity relationships ([Q]SARs), physico-chemical, and human observational studies. Our aims were to identify the available guidance in this diverse literature, briefly summarize each document, and distill the common elements of these documents for each study type. In general, we found considerable guidance for in vivo and human studies, but only one paper addressed in vitro studies exclusively. The guidance for (Q)SAR studies and physico-chemical studies was scant but authoritative. There was substantial overlap across guidance documents in the proposed criteria for both methodological and reporting quality. Some guidance documents address toxicology research directly, whereas others address preclinical research generally or clinical research and therefore may not be fully applicable to the toxicology context without some translation. Another challenge is the degree to which assessments of methodological quality in toxicology should focus on risk of bias - as in clinical medicine and healthcare - or be broadened to include other quality measures, such as confirming the identity of test substances prior to exposure. Our review is intended primarily for those in toxicology and risk assessment seeking an entry point into the extensive and diverse literature on methodological and reporting quality applicable to their work. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Recommendations related to the strategic environmental assessment. Methodological note

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Bris, Charlotte; Brivadier, Isabelle; Fournie, Sebastien; Godart, Angelique; Hubert, Severine; Ille, Yann-Mikiel; Le Mitouard, Eric; Phelep, Michele; Delduc, Paul; Poitevin, Florent; Lemaitre, Valery; Bataille, Tristan; Noulin, Alice; Fevre, Cecile; Kervella, Frederic; Orefici, Christine; Rambaud, Lucile; Antoine, Stephanie; Wormser, Veronique; Garrigou, Olivier; Vinay, Catherine; Cretin, Benedicte; Le Saout, Michaele; Pagnucco, Fabrice; Meinier, Yves; Nicolas, Veronique; Thiolliere, Blandine; Guilbert, Sebastien; Billant, Claude; Saingenest, Patrick

2015-05-01

This methodological note aims at giving commissioners and project managers of plans, schemes and programmes or other planning documents related to strategic environmental assessment a comprehensive vision of the approach to be adopted, as well as useful advices and operational recommendations. The first part recalls the main principles of environmental assessment, addresses general issues of organisation of the approach, and clarifies its articulation with the plan/scheme/programme elaboration or other approaches such as the assessment of incidences on the Natura 2000 network. The second part addresses the different chapters which are foreseen by the regulation for the environmental report. Some sheets are proposed on SDAGEs (Water Development and Management Master Plans) and PGIRs (flood risk management plans), on SRCs (quarry regional plan) and SAGEs (Water Development and Management Scheme)

Overview of the ISAM safety assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simeonov, G.

2003-01-01

The ISAM safety assessment methodology consists of the following key components: specification of the assessment context description of the disposal system development and justification of scenarios formulation and implementation of models running of computer codes and analysis and presentation of results. Common issues run through two or more of these assessment components, including: use of methodological and computer tools, collation and use of data, need to address various sources of uncertainty, building of confidence in the individual components, as well as the overall assessment. The importance of the iterative nature of the assessment should be recognised

Probabilistic Risk Assessment on Maritime Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christian, Robby; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management has been an indispensable issue in South Korea. Before a long term SNF solution is implemented, there exists the need to distribute the spent fuel pool storage loads. Transportation of SNF assemblies from populated pools to vacant ones may preferably be done through the maritime mode since all nuclear power plants in South Korea are located at coastal sites. To determine its feasibility, it is necessary to assess risks of the maritime SNF transportation. This work proposes a methodology to assess the risk arising from ship collisions during the transportation of SNF by sea. Its scope is limited to the damage probability of SNF packages given a collision event. The effect of transport parameters' variation to the package damage probability was investigated to obtain insights into possible ways to minimize risks. A reference vessel and transport cask are given in a case study to illustrate the methodology's application.

Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown-Van Hoozer, S.A.; Kenley, C.R.

1997-01-01

A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks. This paper presents the programmatic risk assessment methodology developed for the 1995 R and D Plan and updated for the 1996 R and D Plan. Results of the 1996 assessment also are presented (DOE/ID-10561, 1996)

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Risk assessment and radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, J.J.

1979-01-01

Problems of radioactive waste management, both real and apparent, have provided a serious constraint in the development of nuclear power. Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to evaluate the actual (quantifiable) risks of radioactive waste management and place them in a reasonable perspective. These studies are reviewed and discussed. Generally, the studies indicate the risks to be of a level of seriousness which might normally be considered acceptable in current society. However, it is apparent that this acceptability has not been attained and public apprehension prevails. To understand the reasons for this apprehension requires an assessment of those factors of ''perceived'' risks which play a major role in determining public attitudes toward radioactive waste management programs and nuclear power, in general. Such factors might include the spector of legacies of harm to future generations, genetic effects, nuclear garbage dumps, proliferation of plutonium inventories, nuclear terrorism, etc. A major problem in development of acceptable waste management policies and programs requires not only the recognition of the importance of perceived risk factors but development of a methodology for their incorporation in planning and conduct of such activities. Some approaches to the development of this methodology are discussed

Damage assessment methodology for vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Martínez Gomariz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Urban floods may provoke important damages to vehicles, usually not taken into account within most studies related to urban flood risks damage assessments. Herein a methodology to estimate damages to vehicles exposed to urban floods is presented. After a state-of-the-art review, the most recent damage curves for vehicles developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2009 are presented as the best adaptive and the most comprehensively performed so far. The proposed methodology is applied to the Spanish municipality of Badalona, framed in the H2020 European Project BINGO. In order to conduct this methodology some aspects such as the vehicular distribution are analyzed within the study area. Finally, Expected Annual Damage (EAD for flooded vehicles is calculated based on inundations related to design storms of different return periods (1, 10, 100 and 500 years.

Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkeroe, Topi [Univ. of Helsinki (Finland). Centre for Social Ethics

2006-09-15

This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology.

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

2011-10-15

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

Methodology for Collision Risk Assessment of an Airspace Flow Corridor Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yimin

This dissertation presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. The flow corridor is a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace. The flow corridor has the potential to increase throughput by reducing the controller workload required to manage aircraft outside the corridor and by reducing separation of aircraft within corridor. The analysis in this dissertation is a starting point for the safety analysis required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to eventually approve and implement the corridor concept. This dissertation develops a hybrid risk analysis methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic event tree analysis. The analysis captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft in the flow corridor and to identify precursor events that might lead to a collision. Since these precursor events are not rare, standard Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate these occurrence rates. Dynamic event trees are then used to model the subsequent series of events that may lead to collision. When two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision (NMAC), the on-board automated separation assurance system provides a series of safety layers to prevent the impending NNAC or collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the potential failures of these layers in order to estimate the rare-event collision probabilities. The results show that the throughput can be increased by reducing separation to 2 nautical miles while maintaining the current level of safety. A sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical parameters in the model related to the overall

An overview of performance assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hongnian Jow

2010-01-01

The definition of performance assessment (PA) within the context of a geologic repository program is a post-closure safety assessment; a system analysis of hazards associated with the facility and the ability of the site and the design of the facility to provide for the safety functions. For the last few decades, PA methodology bas been developed and applied to different waste disposal programs around the world. PA has been used in the safety analyses for waste disposal repositories for low-level waste, intermediate level waste, and high-level waste including spent nuclear fuels. This paper provides an overview of the performance assessment methodology and gives examples of its applications for the Yucca Mountain Project. (authors)

Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faber, M.H.; Stewart, M.G.

2003-01-01

The present paper should be seen as a basis for discussion of important aspects of risk analysis and assessment, as well as attempting to describe risk assessment in accordance with the present state of the art. Risk assessment is thus presented in an overview form from the viewpoint of being a means for decision-making and thus within the formal framework of decision theory. First the motivation for risk analysis is given and the theoretical basis together with the practical aspects, methodologies and techniques for the implementation of risk assessment in civil engineering applications are explained and discussed. The paper furthermore addresses the problems associated with risk acceptance criteria, risk aversion and value of human life and attempts to provide suggestions for the rational treatment of these aspects. Finally a number of problem areas are highlighted and the needs for further education, research and dissemination are stressed

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

1980-08-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

Regional risk assessment of environmental contamination from oil pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pelmulder, S.D.; Eguchi, R.T.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil pipeline leaks due to earthquakes. Risk is measured both as volume of oil released and remediation cost. The methodology was developed for use on a regional scale and thus relies on a limited amount of input data. Monte Carlo techniques are used to simulate earthquake events, while a deterministic model is used to estimate the volume of oil released at a particular site. A library of cost models is used to estimate the contamination and resulting remediation cost based on the volume of oil released and the general site conditions. This methodology has been implemented in a computer program, OILOSS, and the results are presented as annual frequency of exceedence curves for volume of oil released and cost of remediation

NUSAM Methodology for Assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leach, Janice [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Snell, Mark K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-07-01

This document provides a methodology for the performance-based assessment of security systems designed for the protection of nuclear and radiological materials and the processes that produce and/or involve them. It is intended for use with both relatively simple installations and with highly regulated complex sites with demanding security requirements.

MARA - methodology to analyze environmental risks; MARA - elaboracao de metodologia para analise dos riscos ambientais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendes, Renato F; Yogui, Regiane [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Minniti, Vivienne [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Analise de Riscos; Lopes, Carlos F [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Operacoes de Emergencia; Milaneli, Joao [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Ubatuba, SP (Brazil). Agencia Ambiental de Ubatuba; Torres, Carlos [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transportes, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Seguranca, Meio Ambiente e Saude; Rodrigues, Gabriela; Mariz, Eduardo [Consultoria Paulista, SP (Brazil)

2005-07-01

In the oil industry, the environmental impact assessment of an accident is both multi and interdisciplinary and goes through several approaches and depths. Due to the enormous complexity of the environmental analyses issues, mainly for being a science in development and not technological consensus, a macro methodology is presented for the purpose of identify areas that can be impacted by pipeline leakages and recommend improvements are applicable working as a table top response plan. The methodology of the Environmental Risk Mapping-MARA for pipelines rows, describes its concept and justifies the adoption of the environmental mapping during Risk Analyses studies, for PETROBRAS/TRANSPETRO new and existing pipelines. The development of this methodology is justified by the fact that it is a practical tool for identification, analysis and categorization of the more vulnerable environmental elements along a pipeline row and vicinities, during simulated occurrence of accidental spills of hydrocarbons in the environment. This methodology is a tool that allows Environmental Agencies and PETROBRAS a better way to manage in advance the Company emergencies. (author)

Comparative analysis of proliferation resistance assessment methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaki, Naoyuki; Kikuchi, Masahiro; Inoue, Naoko; Osabe, Takeshi

2005-01-01

Comparative analysis of the methodologies was performed based on the discussions in the international workshop on 'Assessment Methodology of Proliferation Resistance for Future Nuclear Energy Systems' held in Tokyo, on March 2005. Through the workshop and succeeding considerations, it is clarified that the proliferation resistance assessment methodologies are affected by the broader nuclear options being pursued and also by the political situations of the state. Even the definition of proliferation resistance, despite the commonality of fundamental issues, derives from perceived threat and implementation circumstances inherent to the larger programs. Deep recognitions of the 'difference' among communities would help us to make further essential and progressed discussion with harmonization. (author)

Developing new methodology for nuclear power plants vulnerability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostadinov, Venceslav

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → Paper presents new methodology for vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants. → First universal quantitative risks assessment model for terrorist attack on a NPPs. → New model enhance security, reliability and safe operation of all energy infrastructure. → Significant research benefits: increased NPPs security, reliability and availability. → Useful new tool for PRA application to evaluation of terrorist threats on NPPs. - Abstract: The fundamental aim of an efficient regulatory emergency preparedness and response system is to provide sustained emergency readiness and to prevent emergency situations and accidents. But when an event occurs, the regulatory mission is to mitigate consequences and to protect people and the environment against nuclear and radiological damage. The regulatory emergency response system, which would be activated in the case of a nuclear and/or radiological emergency and release of radioactivity to the environment, is an important element of a comprehensive national regulatory system of nuclear and radiation safety. In the past, national emergency systems explicitly did not include vulnerability assessments of the critical nuclear infrastructure as an important part of a comprehensive preparedness framework. But after the huge terrorist attack on 11/09/2001, decision-makers became aware that critical nuclear infrastructure could also be an attractive target to terrorism, with the purpose of using the physical and radioactive properties of the nuclear material to cause mass casualties, property damage, and detrimental economic and/or environmental impacts. The necessity to evaluate critical nuclear infrastructure vulnerability to threats like human errors, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as preparation of emergency response plans with estimation of optimized costs, are of vital importance for assurance of safe nuclear facilities operation and national security. In this paper presented

Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Complexity or simplicity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille

2013-01-01

A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview...... of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance each tool was sufficient for practical use and lastly to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched Pub......Med, Embase and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the QUADAS checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified, 20 had been externally validated, however only 6 tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable...

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) reference document. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, J.A.

1984-09-01

This document describes the current status of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as practiced in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The PRA studies that have been completed or are under way are reviewed. The levels of maturity of the methodologies used in a PRA are discussed. Insights derived from PRAs are listed. The potential uses of PRA results for regulatory purposes are discussed. This document was issued for comment in February 1984 entitled Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Status Report and Guidance for Regulatory Application. The comments received on the draft have been considered for this final version of the report

A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

2010-05-01

In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet

Probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment for extreme objects and ecologically hazardous systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu. V. Veryuzhsky

2003-06-01

Full Text Available The paper include mostly the results of works of the Research Institute for Mechanics of Quickproceeding Processes united in a general research direction - creation of the methodology for risk assessment and risk management for ecologically hazardous systems, consisting of the set of different technological analyzed objects. The elements of system can be characterized by high level of radiation, toxic, explosion, fire and other hazards. The probalistic and deterministic approach for risk assessment, based on mathematical methods of system analysis, non-liner dynamics and computer simulation, has been developed. Branching in problem definition, as well as diversity of factor and criteria for determination of system status, is also taken into account. The risks caused by both objective and subjective factors (including human factor are examined. In many performed studies, the leading structural element, dominating in determination of the system safety, is the structural part of an object. The methodology is implemented for the safety analysis (risk assessment for Chernobyl NPP Shelton Object and other industrial buildings

New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

CATHARE code development and assessment methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Micaelli, J.C.; Barre, F.; Bestion, D.

1995-01-01

The CATHARE thermal-hydraulic code has been developed jointly by Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Electricite de France (EdF), and Framatorne for safety analysis. Since the beginning of the project (September 1979), development and assessment activities have followed a methodology supported by two series of experimental tests: separate effects tests and integral effects tests. The purpose of this paper is to describe this methodology, the code assessment status, and the evolution to take into account two new components of this program: the modeling of three-dimensional phenomena and the requirements of code uncertainty evaluation

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

2007-03-15

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

2007-01-01

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat

2011-01-01

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: → A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. → The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. → The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. → The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. → The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

Risk assessment - The perspective and experience of US environmentalists

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silbergeld, Ellen [University of Maryland, Baltimore (United States)

1992-07-01

Since 1981, risk assessment has formed the methodological basis for much public policy related to occupational and environmental chemicals in the US. Risk assessment rose to prominence out of public concern over the potential contribution of chemical exposures to cancer and out of public frustration with delays in regulation by the Environmental Agency (EPA) and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). In addition, pressures from industry required EPA and OSHA to provide a scientific rationale for specific regulatory decisions. The past decade provides a convenient body of evidence upon which to consider the value of risk assessment as a method for reaching public policy decisions. This paper will provide such an evaluation; from the environmentalist perspective. My criteria include: the efficiency, adequacy, clarity, enforceability, and public acceptability of regulation during this period. In addition, the scientific validity of risk assessment is of concern to environmentalists, as it is to others.

Risk assessment - The perspective and experience of US environmentalists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silbergeld, Ellen

1992-01-01

Since 1981, risk assessment has formed the methodological basis for much public policy related to occupational and environmental chemicals in the US. Risk assessment rose to prominence out of public concern over the potential contribution of chemical exposures to cancer and out of public frustration with delays in regulation by the Environmental Agency (EPA) and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). In addition, pressures from industry required EPA and OSHA to provide a scientific rationale for specific regulatory decisions. The past decade provides a convenient body of evidence upon which to consider the value of risk assessment as a method for reaching public policy decisions. This paper will provide such an evaluation; from the environmentalist perspective. My criteria include: the efficiency, adequacy, clarity, enforceability, and public acceptability of regulation during this period. In addition, the scientific validity of risk assessment is of concern to environmentalists, as it is to others

Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

1984-01-01

A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.