Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

2002-01-01

... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

2017-12-01

We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of

Explicit simulation of a midlatitude Mesoscale Convective System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alexander, G.D.; Cotton, W.R. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

1996-04-01

We have explicitly simulated the mesoscale convective system (MCS) observed on 23-24 June 1985 during PRE-STORM, the Preliminary Regional Experiment for the Stormscale Operational and Research and Meterology Program. Stensrud and Maddox (1988), Johnson and Bartels (1992), and Bernstein and Johnson (1994) are among the researchers who have investigated various aspects of this MCS event. We have performed this MCS simulation (and a similar one of a tropical MCS; Alexander and Cotton 1994) in the spirit of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud Systems Study (GCSS), in which cloud-resolving models are used to assist in the formulation and testing of cloud parameterization schemes for larger-scale models. In this paper, we describe (1) the nature of our 23-24 June MCS dimulation and (2) our efforts to date in using our explicit MCS simulations to assist in the development of a GCM parameterization for mesoscale flow branches. The paper is organized as follows. First, we discuss the synoptic situation surrounding the 23-24 June PRE-STORM MCS followed by a discussion of the model setup and results of our simulation. We then discuss the use of our MCS simulation. We then discuss the use of our MCS simulations in developing a GCM parameterization for mesoscale flow branches and summarize our results.

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

Mesoscale wind fluctuations over Danish waters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vincent, Claire Louise

in generated power are a particular problem for oshore wind farms because the typically high concentration of turbines within a limited geographical area means that uctuations can be correlated across large numbers of turbines. Furthermore, organised mesoscale structures that often form over water......Mesoscale wind uctuations aect the large scale integration of wind power because they undermine the day-ahead predictability of wind speed and power production, and because they can result in large uctuations in power generation that must be balanced using reserve power. Large uctuations...... that realistic hour-scale wind uctuations and open cellular convection patterns develop in WRF simulations with 2km horizontal grid spacing. The atmospheric conditions during one of the case studies are then used to initialise a simplied version of the model that has no large scale weather forcing, topography...

Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

2012-12-01

To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

Waterspout Forecasting Method Over the Eastern Adriatic Using a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Model

Science.gov (United States)

Renko, Tanja; Ivušić, Sarah; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Šoljan, Vinko; Horvat, Igor

2018-03-01

In this study, a synoptic and mesoscale analysis was performed and Szilagyi's waterspout forecasting method was tested on ten waterspout events in the period of 2013-2016. Data regarding waterspout occurrences were collected from weather stations, an online survey at the official website of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. Synoptic weather conditions were analyzed using surface pressure fields, 500 hPa level synoptic charts, SYNOP reports and atmospheric soundings. For all observed waterspout events, a synoptic type was determined using the 500 hPa geopotential height chart. The occurrence of lightning activity was determined from the LINET lightning database, and waterspouts were divided into thunderstorm-related and "fair weather" ones. Mesoscale characteristics (with a focus on thermodynamic instability indices) were determined using the high-resolution (500 m grid length) mesoscale numerical weather model and model results were compared with the available observations. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) was tested using vertical atmospheric profiles provided by the mesoscale numerical model. The SWI successfully forecasted all waterspout events, even the winter events. This indicates that the Szilagyi's waterspout prognostic method could be used as a valid prognostic tool for the eastern Adriatic.

The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land mesoscale convective system

Science.gov (United States)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-11-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z - R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z - k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

Observations of Coastally Transitioning West African Mesoscale Convective Systems during NAMMA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bradley W. Klotz

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Observations from the NASA 10 cm polarimetric Doppler weather radar (NPOL were used to examine structure, development, and oceanic transition of West African Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA to determine possible indicators leading to downstream tropical cyclogenesis. Characteristics examined from the NPOL data include echo-top heights, maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum radar reflectivity, and convective and stratiform coverage areas. Atmospheric radiosondes launched during NAMMA were used to investigate environmental stability characteristics that the MCSs encountered while over land and ocean, respectively. Strengths of African Easterly Waves (AEWs were examined along with the MCSs in order to improve the analysis of MCS characteristics. Mean structural and environmental characteristics were calculated for systems that produced TCs and for those that did not in order to determine differences between the two types. Echo-top heights were similar between the two types, but maximum reflectivity and height and coverage of intense convection (>50 dBZ are all larger than for the TC producing cases. Striking differences in environmental conditions related to future TC formation include stronger African Easterly Jet, increased moisture especially at middle and upper levels, and increased stability as the MCSs coastally transition.

The mesoscale dispersion modeling system a simulation tool for development of an emergency response system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uliasz, M.

1990-01-01

The mesoscale dispersion modeling system is under continuous development. The included numerical models require further improvements and evaluation against data from meteorological and tracer field experiments. The system can not be directly applied to real time predictions. However, it seems to be a useful simulation tool for solving several problems related to planning the monitoring network and development of the emergency response system for the nuclear power plant located in a coastal area. The modeling system can be also applied to another environmental problems connected with air pollution dispersion in complex terrain. The presented numerical models are designed for the use on personal computers and are relatively fast in comparison with the similar mesoscale models developed on mainframe computers

Development of extended WRF variational data assimilation system (WRFDA) for WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

Science.gov (United States)

Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-06-01

The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April-3 May 2008), Aila (23-26 May 2009) and Jal (4-8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system.

Investigating Mesoscale Convective Systems and their Predictability Using Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Daher, H.; Duffy, D.; Bowen, M. K.

2016-12-01

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a thunderstorm region that lasts several hours long and forms near weather fronts and can often develop into tornadoes. Here we seek to answer the question of whether these tornadoes are "predictable" by looking for a defining characteristic(s) separating MCSs that evolve into tornadoes versus those that do not. Using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications 2 reanalysis data (M2R12K), we apply several state of the art machine learning techniques to investigate this question. The spatial region examined in this experiment is Tornado Alley in the United States over the peak tornado months. A database containing select variables from M2R12K is created using PostgreSQL. This database is then analyzed using machine learning methods such as Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) and DBSCAN (an unsupervised density-based data clustering algorithm). The incentive behind using these methods is to mathematically define a MCS so that association rule mining techniques can be used to uncover some sort of signal or teleconnection that will help us forecast which MCSs will result in tornadoes and therefore give society more time to prepare and in turn reduce casualties and destruction.

Weather and forecasting at Wilkins ice runway, Antarctica

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carpentier, Scott

2010-01-01

Aviation forecasts for Wilkins ice runway in East Antarctica are developed within the conceptual framework of flow against a single dome shaped hill. Forecast challenges include the sudden onset of blizzards associated with the formation of an internal gravity wave; frontal weather; transient wake vortices and mesoscale lows; temperature limitations on runway use; and snow and fog events. These key weather aspects are presented within the context of synoptic to local scale climatologies and numerical weather prediction models.

Spectral structure of mesoscale winds over the water

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Vincent, Claire Louise; Larsen, Søren Ejling

2013-01-01

to describe the spectral slope transition as well as the limit for application of the Taylor hypothesis. The stability parameter calculated from point measurements, the bulk Richardson number, is found insufficient to represent the various atmospheric structures that have their own spectral behaviours under...... spectra show universal characteristics, in agreement with the findings in literature, including the energy amplitude and the −5/3 spectral slope in the mesoscale range transitioning to a slope of −3 for synoptic and planetary scales. The integral time-scale of the local weather is found to be useful...... different stability conditions, such as open cells and gravity waves. For stationary conditions, the mesoscale turbulence is found to bear some characteristics of two-dimensional isotropy, including (1) very minor vertical variation of spectra; (2) similar spectral behaviour for the along- and across...

Nesting Large-Eddy Simulations Within Mesoscale Simulations for Wind Energy Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Lundquist, J. K.; Mirocha, J. D.; Chow, F. K.; Kosovic, B.; Lundquist, K. A.

2008-12-01

With increasing demand for more accurate atmospheric simulations for wind turbine micrositing, for operational wind power forecasting, and for more reliable turbine design, simulations of atmospheric flow with resolution of tens of meters or higher are required. These time-dependent large-eddy simulations (LES) account for complex terrain and resolve individual atmospheric eddies on length scales smaller than turbine blades. These small-domain high-resolution simulations are possible with a range of commercial and open- source software, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In addition to "local" sources of turbulence within an LES domain, changing weather conditions outside the domain can also affect flow, suggesting that a mesoscale model provide boundary conditions to the large-eddy simulations. Nesting a large-eddy simulation within a mesoscale model requires nuanced representations of turbulence. Our group has improved the Weather and Research Forecating model's (WRF) LES capability by implementing the Nonlinear Backscatter and Anisotropy (NBA) subfilter stress model following Kosoviæ (1997) and an explicit filtering and reconstruction technique to compute the Resolvable Subfilter-Scale (RSFS) stresses (following Chow et al, 2005). We have also implemented an immersed boundary method (IBM) in WRF to accommodate complex terrain. These new models improve WRF's LES capabilities over complex terrain and in stable atmospheric conditions. We demonstrate approaches to nesting LES within a mesoscale simulation for farms of wind turbines in hilly regions. Results are sensitive to the nesting method, indicating that care must be taken to provide appropriate boundary conditions, and to allow adequate spin-up of turbulence in the LES domain. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Automated Tracking of Tornado-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, K.; Hong, Y.; Clune, T. L.

2011-12-01

The great majority of Earth Science events are studied using "snap-shot" observations in time, mainly due to the scarcity of observations with dense temporal coverage and the lack of robust methods amenable to connecting the "snap shots". To enable the studies of these events in the four-dimensional (4D) spatiotemporal space and to demonstrate the utility of this capability, we have applied the neighbor enclosed area tracking (NEAT) method of Inatsu (2009) to three years of high-resolution (in both time and space) NEXRAD-derived and rain-gauge-corrected QE2 precipitation observations and GOES satellite Rapid Scan Operation imagery to track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). We combine information from the databases of the Tornado History Project (which provides tornado occurrence and trajectory) and the NWS Watch/Warning Archive (which provides severe weather watch/warning locations) to obtain initial estimate of the time and location of a tornado-producing MCS. The NEAT algorithm is then applied to QE2 and GOES data, both forward and backward in time, to identify the entire system as one integral entity from its inception to its eventual dissipation in the 4D spatiotemporal space. For each system so identified, we extract its morphological/structural parameters, such as perimeter length, area, and orientation, from each of the snap shots in time. We also record physical parameters such as minimum and maximum precipitation rates. In addition, we perform areal integral on the precipitation rate field, which in turn enables time integral for the entire MCS throughout its lifecycle to obtain an estimate of the system's precipitation production. We can extend this proof-of-concept prototype to other precipitation producing severe weather events, such as blizzards. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal data collected may be used to discover other data, such as satellite remote sensing observations and model analyses/simulations, which can then be combined

A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Pergaud, Julien; Masson, Valéry; Malardel, Sylvie; Couvreux, Fleur

2009-07-01

For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy DiffusivityMass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w *. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCSARM) and conserve a realistic evolution of stratocumulus (EUROCSFIRE).

Application of a COSMO Mesoscale Model to Assess the Influence of Forest Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Olchev, A.; Rozinkina, I.; Kuzmina, E.; Nikitin, M.; Rivin, G. S.

2017-12-01

Modern changes in land use and forest cover have a significant influence on local, regional, and global weather and climate conditions. In this study, the mesoscale model COSMO is used to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change in the central part of the East European Plain on regional weather conditions. The "model region" of the study is surrounded by geographical coordinates 55° and 59°N and 28° and 37°E and situated in the central part of a large modeling domain (50° - 70° N and 15° 55° E), covering almost the entire East European Plain in Northern Eurasia. The forests cover about 50% of the area of the "model region". The modeling study includes 3 main numerical experiments. The first assumes total deforestation of the "model region" and replacement of forests by grasslands. The second is represented by afforestation of the "model region." In the third, weather conditions are simulated with present land use and vegetation structures of the "model region." Output of numerical experiments is at 13.2 km grid resolution, and the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis (with 6-h resolution in time and 0.75°×0.75° in space) is used to quantify initial and boundary conditions. Numerical experiments for the warm period of 2010 taken as an example show that deforestation and afforestation processes in the selected region can lead to significant changes in weather conditions. Deforestation processes in summer conditions can result in increased air temperature and wind speed, reduction of precipitation, lower clouds, and relative humidity. The afforestation process can result in opposite effects (decreased air temperature, increased precipitation, higher air humidity and fog frequency, and strengthened storm winds). Maximum meteorological changes under forest cover changes are projected for the summer months (July and August). It was also shown that changes of some meteorological characteristics (e.g., air temperature) is observed in the

Structural Characteristics of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems in the U.S. Great Plains as Observed During the PECAN Field Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Bodine, D. J.; Dougherty, E.; Rasmussen, K. L.; Torres, A. D.

2015-12-01

During the summer in the U.S. Great Plains, some of the heaviest precipitation falls from large thunderstorm complexes known as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). These frequently occurring MCSs are often nocturnal in nature, so the dynamics associated with these systems are more elusive than those in the daytime. The Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign was launched over a 7-week period as an endeavor to better understand nocturnal MCSs occurring in the Great Plains. PECAN featured a dense array of ground-based and airborne instruments to observe nocturnal MCS, including dual-polarization radars at multiple frequencies, mobile mesonets, and sounding units. Our role in PECAN involved deploying Ott Parsivel disdrometers to gain information on drop size distributions (DSDs) and fall speeds. Analysis of disdrometer data in conjunction with radar data presented using Contour Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADs) and high-resolution radiosonde data allows for a structural comparison of PECAN MCS cases to previously identified MCS archetypes. Novel insights into the structural evolution of nocturnal MCSs in relation to their synoptic, mesoscale, and thermodynamic environments are presented, using data collected from dense and numerous observation platforms. Understanding the environmental conditions that result in different nocturnal MCS configurations is useful for gaining insight into precipitation distributions and potential severe weather and flooding hazards in the Great Plains.

Gasdynamic modeling and parametric study of mesoscale internal combustion swing engine/generator systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Yongxian

The demand of portable power generation systems for both domestic and military applications has driven the advances of mesoscale internal combustion engine systems. This dissertation was devoted to the gasdynamic modeling and parametric study of the mesoscale internal combustion swing engine/generator systems. First, the system-level thermodynamic modeling for the swing engine/generator systems has been developed. The system performance as well as the potentials of both two- and four-stroke swing engine systems has been investigated based on this model. Then through parameterc studies, the parameters that have significant impacts on the system performance have been identified, among which, the burn time and spark advance time are the critical factors related to combustion process. It is found that the shorter burn time leads to higher system efficiency and power output and the optimal spark advance time is about half of the burn time. Secondly, the turbulent combustion modeling based on levelset method (G-equation) has been implemented into the commercial software FLUENT. Thereafter, the turbulent flame propagation in a generic mesoscale combustion chamber and realistic swing engine chambers has been studied. It is found that, in mesoscale combustion engines, the burn time is dominated by the mean turbulent kinetic energy in the chamber. It is also shown that in a generic mesoscale combustion chamber, the burn time depends on the longest distance between the initial ignition kernel to its walls and by changing the ignition and injection locations, the burn time can be reduced by a factor of two. Furthermore, the studies of turbulent flame propagation in real swing engine chambers show that the combustion can be enhanced through in-chamber turbulence augmentation and with higher engine frequency, the burn time is shorter, which indicates that the in-chamber turbulence can be induced by the motion of moving components as well as the intake gas jet flow. The burn time

Wake modelling combining mesoscale and microscale models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badger, Jake; Volker, Patrick; Prospathospoulos, J.

2013-01-01

In this paper the basis for introducing thrust information from microscale wake models into mesocale model wake parameterizations will be described. A classification system for the different types of mesoscale wake parameterizations is suggested and outlined. Four different mesoscale wake paramet...

Acoustic Characterization of Mesoscale Objects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chinn, D; Huber, R; Chambers, D; Cole, G; Balogun, O; Spicer, J; Murray, T

2007-03-13

This report describes the science and engineering performed to provide state-of-the-art acoustic capabilities for nondestructively characterizing mesoscale (millimeter-sized) objects--allowing micrometer resolution over the objects entire volume. Materials and structures used in mesoscale objects necessitate the use of (1) GHz acoustic frequencies and (2) non-contacting laser generation and detection of acoustic waves. This effort demonstrated that acoustic methods at gigahertz frequencies have the necessary penetration depth and spatial resolution to effectively detect density discontinuities, gaps, and delaminations. A prototype laser-based ultrasonic system was designed and built. The system uses a micro-chip laser for excitation of broadband ultrasonic waves with frequency components reaching 1.0 GHz, and a path-stabilized Michelson interferometer for detection. The proof-of-concept for mesoscale characterization is demonstrated by imaging a micro-fabricated etched pattern in a 70 {micro}m thick silicon wafer.

Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts demonstration project. Phase 1: Pilot's weather information requirements and implications for weather data systems design

Science.gov (United States)

Crabill, Norman L.; Dash, Ernie R.

1991-01-01

The weather information requirements for pilots and the deficiencies of the current aviation weather support system in meeting these requirements are defined. As the amount of data available to pilots increases significantly in the near future, expert system technology will be needed to assist pilots in assimilating that information. Some other desirable characteristics of an automation-assisted system for weather data acquisition, dissemination, and assimilation are also described.

A Reanalysis System for the Generation of Mesoscale Climatographies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hahmann, Andrea N.; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Warner, Thomas T.

2010-01-01

), wherein Newtonian relaxation terms in the prognostic equations continually nudge the model solution toward surface and upper-air observations. When applied to a mesoscale climatography, the system is called Climate-FDDA (CFDDA). Here, the CFDDA system is used for downscaling eastern Mediterranean...... the frequency distributions of atmospheric states in addition to time means. The verification of the monthly rainfall climatography shows that CFDDA captures most of the observed spatial and interannual variability, although the model tends to underestimate rainfall amounts over the sea. The frequency...

A Weather Analysis and Forecasting System for Baja California, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Farfan, L. M.

2006-05-01

The weather of the Baja California Peninsula, part of northwestern Mexico, is mild and dry most of the year. However, during the summer, humid air masses associated with tropical cyclones move northward in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Added features that create a unique meteorological situation include mountain ranges along the spine of the peninsula, warm water in the Gulf of California, and the cold California Current in the Pacific. These features interact with the environmental flow to induce conditions that play a role in the occurrence of localized, convective systems during the approach of tropical cyclones. Most of these events occur late in the summer, generating heavy precipitation, strong winds, lightning, and are associated with significant property damage to the local populations. Our goal is to provide information on the characteristics of these weather systems by performing an analysis of observations derived from a regional network. This includes imagery from radar and geostationary satellite, and data from surface stations. A set of real-time products are generated in our research center and are made available to a broad audience (researchers, students, and business employees) by using an internet site. Graphical products are updated anywhere from one to 24 hours and includes predictions from numerical models. Forecasts are derived from an operational model (GFS) and locally generated simulations based on a mesoscale model (MM5). Our analysis and forecasting system has been in operation since the summer of 2005 and was used as a reference for a set of discussions during the development of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. This basin had 15 named storms and none of them made landfall on the west coast of Mexico; however, four systems were within 800 km from the area of interest, resulting in some convective activity. During the whole season, a group of 30 users from our institution, government offices, and local businesses received daily information

Modeling mesoscale eddies

Science.gov (United States)

Canuto, V. M.; Dubovikov, M. S.

Mesoscale eddies are not resolved in coarse resolution ocean models and must be modeled. They affect both mean momentum and scalars. At present, no generally accepted model exists for the former; in the latter case, mesoscales are modeled with a bolus velocity u∗ to represent a sink of mean potential energy. However, comparison of u∗(model) vs. u∗ (eddy resolving code, [J. Phys. Ocean. 29 (1999) 2442]) has shown that u∗(model) is incomplete and that additional terms, "unrelated to thickness source or sinks", are required. Thus far, no form of the additional terms has been suggested. To describe mesoscale eddies, we employ the Navier-Stokes and scalar equations and a turbulence model to treat the non-linear interactions. We then show that the problem reduces to an eigenvalue problem for the mesoscale Bernoulli potential. The solution, which we derive in analytic form, is used to construct the momentum and thickness fluxes. In the latter case, the bolus velocity u∗ is found to contain two types of terms: the first type entails the gradient of the mean potential vorticity and represents a positive contribution to the production of mesoscale potential energy; the second type of terms, which is new, entails the velocity of the mean flow and represents a negative contribution to the production of mesoscale potential energy, or equivalently, a backscatter process whereby a fraction of the mesoscale potential energy is returned to the original reservoir of mean potential energy. This type of terms satisfies the physical description of the additional terms given by [J. Phys. Ocean. 29 (1999) 2442]. The mesoscale flux that enters the momentum equations is also contributed by two types of terms of the same physical nature as those entering the thickness flux. The potential vorticity flux is also shown to contain two types of terms: the first is of the gradient-type while the other terms entail the velocity of the mean flow. An expression is derived for the mesoscale

Use of ground-based wind profiles in mesoscale forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Schlatter, Thomas W.

1985-01-01

A brief review is presented of recent uses of ground-based wind profile data in mesoscale forecasting. Some of the applications are in real time, and some are after the fact. Not all of the work mentioned here has been published yet, but references are given wherever possible. As Gage and Balsley (1978) point out, sensitive Doppler radars have been used to examine tropospheric wind profiles since the 1970's. It was not until the early 1980's, however, that the potential contribution of these instruments to operational forecasting and numerical weather prediction became apparent. Profiler winds and radiosonde winds compare favorably, usually within a few m/s in speed and 10 degrees in direction (see Hogg et al., 1983), but the obvious advantage of the profiler is its frequent (hourly or more often) sampling of the same volume. The rawinsonde balloon is launched only twice a day and drifts with the wind. In this paper, I will: (1) mention two operational uses of data from a wind profiling system developed jointly by the Wave Propagation and Aeronomy Laboratories of NOAA; (2) describe a number of displays of these same data on a workstation for mesoscale forecasting developed by the Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS); and (3) explain some interesting diagnostic calculations performed by meteorologists of the Wave Propagation Laboratory.

Internet-accessible real-time weather information system

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Desa, E.; Mehra, P.; Desa, E.; Gouveia, A.D.

An internet-accessible real-time weather information system has been developed. This system provides real-time accessibility to weather information from a multitude of spatially distributed weather stations. The Internet connectivity also offers...

A Climatology of Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Central and Eastern United States, 1986-95. Part I: Temporal and Spatial Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.

1998-11-01

In 1888, Iowa weather researcher Gustavus Hinrichs gave widespread convectively induced windstorms the name "derecho". Refinements to this definition have evolved after numerous investigations of these systems; however, to date, a derecho climatology has not been conducted.This investigation examines spatial and temporal aspects of derechos and their associated mesoscale convective systems that occurred from 1986 to 1995. The spatial distribution of derechos revealed four activity corridors during the summer, five during the spring, and two during the cool season. Evidence suggests that the primary warm season derecho corridor is located in the southern Great Plains. During the cool season, derecho activity was found to occur in the southeast states and along the Atlantic seaboard. Temporally, derechos are primarily late evening or overnight events during the warm season and are more evenly distributed throughout the day during the cool season.

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

Science.gov (United States)

Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

Mesoscale Connections Summer 2017

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kippen, Karen Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bourke, Mark Andrew M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-06-21

Our challenge derives from the fact that in metals or explosives grains, interfaces and defects control engineering performance in ways that are neither amenable to continuum codes (which fail to rigorously describe the heterogeneities derived from microstructure) nor computationally tractable to first principles atomistic calculations. This is a region called the mesoscale, which stands at the frontier of our desire to translate fundamental science insights into confidence in aging system performance over the range of extreme conditions relevant in a nuclear weapon. For dynamic problems, the phenomena of interest can require extremely good temporal resolutions. A shock wave traveling at 1000 m/s (or 1 mm/μs) passes through a grain with a diameter of 1 micron in a nanosecond (10-9 sec). Thus, to observe the mesoscale phenomena—such as dislocations or phase transformations—as the shock passes, temporal resolution better than picoseconds (10-12 sec) may be needed. As we anticipate the science challenges over the next decade, experimental insights on material performance at the micron spatial scale with picosecond temporal resolution—at the mesoscale— are a clear challenge. This is a challenge fit for Los Alamos in partnership with our sister labs and academia. Mesoscale Connections will draw attention to our progress as we tackle the mesoscale challenge. We hope you like it and encourage suggestions of content you are interested in.

Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations: Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Qing [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Houze, Robert A. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Feng, Zhe [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA

2017-12-27

Continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the warm seasons of 2011 and 2012 reproduce realistic structure and frequency distribution of lifetime and event mean precipitation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the central United States. Analysis is performed to determine the environmental conditions conducive to generating the longest-lived MCSs and their subsequent interactions. The simulations show that MCSs systematically form over the Great Plains ahead of a trough in the westerlies in combination with an enhanced low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico. These environmental properties at the time of storm initiation are most prominent for the MCSs that persist for the longest times. Systems reaching 9 h or more in lifetime exhibit feedback to the environment conditions through diabatic heating in the MCS stratiform regions. As a result, the parent synoptic-scale wave is strengthened as a divergent perturbation develops over the MCS at high levels, while a cyclonic circulation perturbation develops in the midlevels of the trough, where the vertical gradient of heating in the MCS region is maximized. The quasi-balanced mesoscale vortex helps to maintain the MCS over a long period of time by feeding dry, cool air into the environment at the rear of the MCS region, so that the MCS can draw in air that increases the evaporative cooling that helps maintain the MCS. At lower levels the south-southeasterly jet of warm moist air from the Gulf is enhanced in the presence of the synoptic-scale wave. That moisture supply is essential to the continued redevelopment of the MCS.

Towards a generalization procedure for WRF mesoscale wind climatologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hahmann, Andrea N.; Casso, P.; Campmany, E.

We present a method for generalizing wind climatologies generated from mesoscale model output (e.g. the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.) The generalization procedure is based on Wind Atlas framework of WAsP and KAMM/WAsP, and been extensively in wind resources assessment in DTU Wind...... generalized wind climatologies estimated by the microscale model WAsP and the methodology presented here. For the Danish wind measurements the mean absolute error in the ‘raw’ wind speeds is 9.2%, while the mean absolute error in the generalized wind speeds is 4.1%. The generalization procedure has been...

Aviation Model: A Fine-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction System for Aviation Applications at the Hong Kong International Airport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wai-Kin Wong

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO is planning to implement a fine-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model for supporting the aviation weather applications at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA. This new NWP model system, called Aviation Model (AVM, is configured at a horizontal grid spacing of 600 m and 200 m. It is based on the WRF-ARW (Advance Research WRF model that can have sufficient computation efficiency in order to produce hourly updated forecasts up to 9 hours ahead on a future high performance computer system with theoretical peak performance of around 10 TFLOPS. AVM will be nested inside the operational mesoscale NWP model of HKO with horizontal resolution of 2 km. In this paper, initial numerical experiment results in forecast of windshear events due to seabreeze and terrain effect are discussed. The simulation of sea-breeze-related windshear is quite successful, and the headwind change observed from flight data could be reproduced in the model forecast. Some impacts of physical processes on generating the fine-scale wind circulation and development of significant convection are illustrated. The paper also discusses the limitations in the current model setup and proposes methods for the future development of AVM.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

From Quanta to the Continuum: Opportunities for Mesoscale Science

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crabtree, George [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sarrao, John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Alivisatos, Paul [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Barletta, William [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States); Bates, Frank [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Brown, Gordon [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); French, Roger [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States); Greene, Laura [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Hemminger, John [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Kastner, Marc [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States); Kay, Bruce [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lewis, Jennifer [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Ratner, Mark [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Anthony, Rollett [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Rubloff, Gary [University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Spence, John [Arizona State Univ., Mesa, AZ (United States); Tobias, Douglas [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Tranquada, John [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

2012-09-01

This report explores the opportunity and defines the research agenda for mesoscale science—discovering, understanding, and controlling interactions among disparate systems and phenomena to reach the full potential of materials complexity and functionality. The ability to predict and control mesoscale phenomena and architectures is essential if atomic and molecular knowledge is to blossom into a next generation of technology opportunities, societal benefits, and scientific advances.. The body of this report outlines the need, the opportunities, the challenges, and the benefits of mastering mesoscale science.

Turbulence Dissipation Rates in the Planetary Boundary Layer from Wind Profiling Radars and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models during WFIP2

Science.gov (United States)

Bianco, L.; McCaffrey, K.; Wilczak, J. M.; Olson, J. B.; Kenyon, J.

2016-12-01

When forecasting winds at a wind plant for energy production, the turbulence parameterizations in the forecast models are crucial for understanding wind plant performance. Recent research shows that the turbulence (eddy) dissipation rate in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes introduces significant uncertainty in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Thus, developing the capability to measure dissipation rates in the PBL will allow for identification of weaknesses in, and improvements to the parameterizations. During a preliminary field study at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory in spring 2015, a 915-MHz wind profiling radar (WPR) measured dissipation rates concurrently with sonic anemometers mounted on a 300-meter tower. WPR set-up parameters (e.g., spectral resolution), post-processing techniques (e.g., filtering for non-atmospheric signals), and spectral averaging were optimized to capture the most accurate Doppler spectra for measuring spectral widths for use in the computation of the eddy dissipation rates. These encouraging results lead to the implementation of the observing strategy on a 915-MHz WPR in Wasco, OR, operating as part of the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2). These observations are compared to dissipation rates calculated from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, a WRF-based mesoscale numerical weather prediction model run for WFIP2 at 3000 m horizontal grid spacing and with a nest, which has 750-meter horizontal grid spacing, in the complex terrain region of the Columbia River Gorge. The observed profiles of dissipation rates are used to evaluate the PBL parameterization schemes used in the HRRR model, which are based on the modeled turbulent kinetic energy and a tunable length scale.

Analysis and simulation of mesoscale convective systems accompanying heavy rainfall: The goyang case

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Hyun-Young; Ha, Ji-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2011-05-01

We investigated a torrential rainfall case with a daily rainfall amount of 379 mm and a maximum hourly rain rate of 77.5 mm that took place on 12 July 2006 at Goyang in the middlewestern part of the Korean Peninsula. The heavy rainfall was responsible for flash flooding and was highly localized. High-resolution Doppler radar data from 5 radar sites located over central Korea were analyzed. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were also performed to complement the high-resolution observations and to further investigate the thermodynamic structure and development of the convective system. The grid nudging method using the Global Final (FNL) Analyses data was applied to the coarse model domain (30 km) in order to provide a more realistic and desirable initial and boundary conditions for the nested model domains (10 km, 3.3 km). The mesoscale convective system (MCS) which caused flash flooding was initiated by the strong low level jet (LLJ) at the frontal region of high equivalent potential temperature (θe) near the west coast over the Yellow Sea. The ascending of the warm and moist air was induced dynamically by the LLJ. The convective cells were triggered by small thermal perturbations and abruptly developed by the warm θe inflow. Within the MCS, several convective cells responsible for the rainfall peak at Goyang simultaneously developed with neighboring cells and interacted with each other. Moist absolutely unstable layers (MAULs) were seen at the lower troposphere with the very moist environment adding the instability for the development of the MCS.

Rotational and divergent kinetic energy in the mesoscale model ALADIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Blažica

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Kinetic energy spectra from the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model ALADIN with horizontal resolution 4.4 km are split into divergent and rotational components which are then compared at horizontal scales below 300 km and various vertical levels. It is shown that about 50% of kinetic energy in the free troposphere in ALADIN is divergent energy. The percentage increases towards 70% near the surface and in the upper troposphere towards 100 hPa. The maximal percentage of divergent energy is found at stratospheric levels around 100 hPa and at scales below 100 km which are not represented by the global models. At all levels, the divergent energy spectra are characterised by shallower slopes than the rotational energy spectra, and the difference increases as horizontal scales become larger. A very similar vertical distribution of divergent energy is obtained by using the standard ALADIN approach for the computation of spectra based on the extension zone and by applying detrending approach commonly used in mesoscale NWP community.

Air Pollutant Distribution and Mesoscale Circulation Systems During Escompte

Science.gov (United States)

Kottmeier, Ch.; Kalthoff, N.; Corsmeier, U.; Robin, D.; Thürauf, J.; Hofherr, T.; Hasel, M.

The distribution of pollutants observed with an Dornier 128 instrumented aircraft and from AIRMARAIX ground stations during one day of the Escompte experiment (June 25, 2001) is analysed in relation to the mesoscale wind systems and vertical mixing from aircraft and radiosonde data. The ESCOMPTE-experiment (http://medias.obs- mip.fr/escompte) was carried out in June and July 2001 in the urban area of Marseille and its rural surroundings to investigate periods with photosmog conditions. The over- all aim is to produce an appropriate high quality 3-D data set which includes emission, meteorological, and chemical data. The data is used for the validation of mesoscale models and for chemical and meteorological process studies. The evolution of pho- tosmog episodes with high ozone concentrations depends on both chemical transfor- mation processes and meteorological conditions. As Marseille is situated between the Mediterranean Sea in the south and mountainous sites in the north, under weak large- scale flow the meteorological conditions are dominated by thermally driven circula- tion systems which strongly influence the horizontal transport of air pollutants. Ad- ditionally, vertically exchange processes like mountain venting and slope winds may contribute in the temporal evolution of the trace gas concentration of the city plume in the atmospheric boundary layer and are particularly studied by the Dornier flight measurements. Therefore the experiment was designed to measure both, the chemi- cal species and meteorological parameters with high resolution in space and time by surface stations, aircraft and vertical profiling systems like radiosondes, sodars and lidars. Results are shown (a) on the evolution of the wind field and the ozone concen- trations during June 25, when an ozone maximum develops about 60 km in the lee site of Marseille and (b) the vertical transport of air pollutants between the boundary layer and the free troposphere.

Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

Land surface sensitivity of mesoscale convective systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tournay, Robert C.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important contributors to the hydrologic cycle in many regions of the world as well as major sources of severe weather. MCSs continue to challenge forecasters and researchers alike, arising from difficulties in understanding system initiation, propagation, and demise. One distinct type of MCS is that formed from individual convective cells initiated primarily by daytime heating over high terrain. This work is aimed at improving our understanding of the land surface sensitivity of this class of MCS in the contiguous United States. First, a climatology of mesoscale convective systems originating in the Rocky Mountains and adjacent high plains from Wyoming southward to New Mexico is developed through a combination of objective and subjective methods. This class of MCS is most important, in terms of total warm season precipitation, in the 500 to 1300m elevations of the Great Plains (GP) to the east in eastern Colorado to central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Examining MCSs by longevity, short lasting MCSs (15 hrs) reveals that longer lasting systems tend to form further south and have a longer track with a more southerly track. The environment into which the MCS is moving showed differences across commonly used variables in convection forecasting, with some variables showing more favorable conditions throughout (convective inhibition, 0-6 km shear and 250 hPa wind speed) ahead of longer lasting MCSs. Other variables, such as convective available potential energy, showed improving conditions through time for longer lasting MCSs. Some variables showed no difference across longevity of MCS (precipitable water and large-scale vertical motion). From subsets of this MCS climatology, three regions of origin were chosen based on the presence of ridgelines extending eastward from the Rocky Mountains known to be foci for convection initiation and subsequent MCS formation: Southern Wyoming (Cheyenne Ridge), Colorado (Palmer divide) and

Mesoscale Effects on Carbon Export: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Cheryl S.; Long, Matthew C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Moore, Jefferson K.

2018-04-01

Carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean is a primary control on global carbon budgets and is mediated by plankton that are sensitive to physical forcing. Earth system models generally do not resolve ocean mesoscale circulation (O(10-100) km), scales that strongly affect transport of nutrients and plankton. The role of mesoscale circulation in modulating export is evaluated by comparing global ocean simulations conducted at 1° and 0.1° horizontal resolution. Mesoscale resolution produces a small reduction in globally integrated export production (export production can be large (±50%), with compensating effects in different ocean basins. With mesoscale resolution, improved representation of coastal jets block off-shelf transport, leading to lower export in regions where shelf-derived nutrients fuel production. Export is further reduced in these regions by resolution of mesoscale turbulence, which restricts the spatial area of production. Maximum mixed layer depths are narrower and deeper across the Subantarctic at higher resolution, driving locally stronger nutrient entrainment and enhanced summer export production. In energetic regions with seasonal blooms, such as the Subantarctic and North Pacific, internally generated mesoscale variability drives substantial interannual variation in local export production. These results suggest that biogeochemical tracer dynamics show different sensitivities to transport biases than temperature and salinity, which should be considered in the formulation and validation of physical parameterizations. Efforts to compare estimates of export production from observations and models should account for large variability in space and time expected for regions strongly affected by mesoscale circulation.

Experimental Study on Meso-Scale Milling Process Using Nanofluid Minimum Quantity Lubrication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, P. H.; Nam, T. S.; Li, Cheng Jun; Lee, S. W.

2010-01-01

This paper present the characteristics of micro- and meso-scale milling processes in which compressed cold air, minimum quantity lubrication (MQL) and MoS 2 nanofluid MQL are used. For process characterization, the micro and meso-scale milling experiments are conducted using desktop meso-scale machine tool system and the surface roughness is measured. The experimental results show that the use of compressed chilly air and nanofluid MQL in the micro- and meso-scale milling processes is effective in improving the surface finish

Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

Science.gov (United States)

Parodi, Antonio; Ferraris, Luca; Gallus, William; Maugeri, Maurizio; Molini, Luca; Siccardi, Franco; Boni, Giorgio

2017-05-01

Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea (17 out of 56 members) as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Ligurian Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers, and even photographs, can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doeswijk, T.G.

2007-01-01

In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

2012-12-01

The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

Analysis of Surface Heterogeneity Effects with Mesoscale Terrestrial Modeling Platforms

Science.gov (United States)

Simmer, C.

2015-12-01

An improved understanding of the full variability in the weather and climate system is crucial for reducing the uncertainty in weather forecasting and climate prediction, and to aid policy makers to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. A yet unknown part of uncertainty in the predictions from the numerical models is caused by the negligence of non-resolved land surface heterogeneity and the sub-surface dynamics and their potential impact on the state of the atmosphere. At the same time, mesoscale numerical models using finer horizontal grid resolution [O(1)km] can suffer from inconsistencies and neglected scale-dependencies in ABL parameterizations and non-resolved effects of integrated surface-subsurface lateral flow at this scale. Our present knowledge suggests large-eddy-simulation (LES) as an eventual solution to overcome the inadequacy of the physical parameterizations in the atmosphere in this transition scale, yet we are constrained by the computational resources, memory management, big-data, when using LES for regional domains. For the present, there is a need for scale-aware parameterizations not only in the atmosphere but also in the land surface and subsurface model components. In this study, we use the recently developed Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TerrSysMP) as a numerical tool to analyze the uncertainty in the simulation of surface exchange fluxes and boundary layer circulations at grid resolutions of the order of 1km, and explore the sensitivity of the atmospheric boundary layer evolution and convective rainfall processes on land surface heterogeneity.

Numerical simulation of terrain-induced mesoscale circulation in the Chiang Mai area, Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Sathitkunarat, Surachai; Wongwises, Prungchan; Pan-Aram, Rudklao; Zhang, Meigen

2008-11-01

The regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) was applied to Chiang Mai province, a mountainous area in Thailand, to study terrain-induced mesoscale circulations. Eight cases in wet and dry seasons under different weather conditions were analyzed to show thermal and dynamic impacts on local circulations. This is the first study of RAMS in Thailand especially investigating the effect of mountainous area on the simulated meteorological data. Analysis of model results indicates that the model can reproduce major features of local circulation and diurnal variations in temperatures. For evaluating the model performance, model results were compared with observed wind speed, wind direction, and temperature monitored at a meteorological tower. Comparison shows that the modeled values are generally in good agreement with observations and that the model captured many of the observed features.

Mesoscale and Local Scale Evaluations of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates by Weather Radar Products during a Heavy Rainfall Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Basile Pauthier

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A 24-hour heavy rainfall event occurred in northeastern France from November 3 to 4, 2014. The accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE by PANTHERE and ANTILOPE radar-based gridded products during this particular event, is examined at both mesoscale and local scale, in comparison with two reference rain-gauge networks. Mesoscale accuracy was assessed for the total rainfall accumulated during the 24-hour event, using the Météo France operational rain-gauge network. Local scale accuracy was assessed for both total event rainfall and hourly rainfall accumulations, using the recently developed HydraVitis high-resolution rain gauge network Evaluation shows that (1 PANTHERE radar-based QPE underestimates rainfall fields at mesoscale and local scale; (2 both PANTHERE and ANTILOPE successfully reproduced the spatial variability of rainfall at local scale; (3 PANTHERE underestimates can be significantly improved at local scale by merging these data with rain gauge data interpolation (i.e., ANTILOPE. This study provides a preliminary evaluation of radar-based QPE at local scale, suggesting that merged products are invaluable for applications at very high resolution. The results obtained underline the importance of using high-density rain-gauge networks to obtain information at high spatial and temporal resolution, for better understanding of local rainfall variation, to calibrate remotely sensed rainfall products.

Development and analysis of prognostic equations for mesoscale kinetic energy and mesoscale (subgrid scale) fluxes for large-scale atmospheric models

Science.gov (United States)

Avissar, Roni; Chen, Fei

1993-01-01

Generated by landscape discontinuities (e.g., sea breezes) mesoscale circulation processes are not represented in large-scale atmospheric models (e.g., general circulation models), which have an inappropiate grid-scale resolution. With the assumption that atmospheric variables can be separated into large scale, mesoscale, and turbulent scale, a set of prognostic equations applicable in large-scale atmospheric models for momentum, temperature, moisture, and any other gaseous or aerosol material, which includes both mesoscale and turbulent fluxes is developed. Prognostic equations are also developed for these mesoscale fluxes, which indicate a closure problem and, therefore, require a parameterization. For this purpose, the mean mesoscale kinetic energy (MKE) per unit of mass is used, defined as E-tilde = 0.5 (the mean value of u'(sub i exp 2), where u'(sub i) represents the three Cartesian components of a mesoscale circulation (the angle bracket symbol is the grid-scale, horizontal averaging operator in the large-scale model, and a tilde indicates a corresponding large-scale mean value). A prognostic equation is developed for E-tilde, and an analysis of the different terms of this equation indicates that the mesoscale vertical heat flux, the mesoscale pressure correlation, and the interaction between turbulence and mesoscale perturbations are the major terms that affect the time tendency of E-tilde. A-state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model is used to investigate the relationship between MKE, landscape discontinuities (as characterized by the spatial distribution of heat fluxes at the earth's surface), and mesoscale sensible and latent heat fluxes in the atmosphere. MKE is compared with turbulence kinetic energy to illustrate the importance of mesoscale processes as compared to turbulent processes. This analysis emphasizes the potential use of MKE to bridge between landscape discontinuities and mesoscale fluxes and, therefore, to parameterize mesoscale fluxes

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Josse

1999-04-01

Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Giordani

Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

Mesoscale hybrid calibration artifact

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Hy D.; Claudet, Andre A.; Oliver, Andrew D.

2010-09-07

A mesoscale calibration artifact, also called a hybrid artifact, suitable for hybrid dimensional measurement and the method for make the artifact. The hybrid artifact has structural characteristics that make it suitable for dimensional measurement in both vision-based systems and touch-probe-based systems. The hybrid artifact employs the intersection of bulk-micromachined planes to fabricate edges that are sharp to the nanometer level and intersecting planes with crystal-lattice-defined angles.

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

A Mesoscale Model-Based Climatography of Nocturnal Boundary-Layer Characteristics over the Complex Terrain of North-Western Utah.

Science.gov (United States)

Serafin, Stefano; De Wekker, Stephan F J; Knievel, Jason C

Nocturnal boundary-layer phenomena in regions of complex topography are extremely diverse and respond to a multiplicity of forcing factors, acting primarily at the mesoscale and microscale. The interaction between different physical processes, e.g., drainage promoted by near-surface cooling and ambient flow over topography in a statically stable environment, may give rise to special flow patterns, uncommon over flat terrain. Here we present a climatography of boundary-layer flows, based on a 2-year archive of simulations from a high-resolution operational mesoscale weather modelling system, 4DWX. The geographical context is Dugway Proving Ground, in north-western Utah, USA, target area of the field campaigns of the MATERHORN (Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations Program) project. The comparison between model fields and available observations in 2012-2014 shows that the 4DWX model system provides a realistic representation of wind speed and direction in the area, at least in an average sense. Regions displaying strong spatial gradients in the field variables, thought to be responsible for enhanced nocturnal mixing, are typically located in transition areas from mountain sidewalls to adjacent plains. A key dynamical process in this respect is the separation of dynamically accelerated downslope flows from the surface.

Design of all-weather celestial navigation system

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Hongchi; Mu, Rongjun; Du, Huajun; Wu, Peng

2018-03-01

In order to realize autonomous navigation in the atmosphere, an all-weather celestial navigation system is designed. The research of celestial navigation system include discrimination method of comentropy and the adaptive navigation algorithm based on the P value. The discrimination method of comentropy is studied to realize the independent switching of two celestial navigation modes, starlight and radio. Finally, an adaptive filtering algorithm based on P value is proposed, which can greatly improve the disturbance rejection capability of the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the three axis attitude is better than 10″, and it can work all weather. In perturbation environment, the position accuracy of the integrated navigation system can be increased 20% comparing with the traditional method. It basically meets the requirements of the all-weather celestial navigation system, and it has the ability of stability, reliability, high accuracy and strong anti-interference.

Evaluation of planetary boundary layer schemes in meso-scale simulations above the North and Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Wurps, Hauke; Tambke, Jens; Steinfeld, Gerald; von Bremen, Lueder

2014-05-01

The development and design of wind energy converters for offshore wind farms require profound knowledge of the wind profile in the lower atmosphere. Especially an accurate and reliable estimation of turbulence, shear and veer are necessary for the prediction of energy production and loads. Currently existing wind energy turbines in the North Sea have hub heights of around 90 m and upper tip heights around 150 m, which is already higher than the highest measurement masts (e.g. FINO1: 103 m). The next generation of wind turbines will clearly outrange these altitudes, so the interest is to examine the atmosphere's properties above the North Sea up to 300 m. Therefore, besides the Prandtl layer also the Ekman layer has to be taken into account, which implies that changes of the wind direction with height become more relevant. For this investigation we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), a meso-scale numerical weather prediction system. In this study we compare different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes (MYJ, MYNN, QNSE) with the same high quality input from ECMWF used as boundary conditions (ERA-Interim). It was found in previous studies that the quality of the boundary conditions is crucially important for the accuracy of comparisons between different PBL schemes. This is due to the fact that the major source of meso-scale simulation errors is introduced by the driving boundary conditions and not by the different schemes of the meso-scale model itself. Hence, small differences in results from different PBL schemes can be distorted arbitrarily by coarse input data. For instance, ERA-Interim data leads to meso-scale RMSE values of 1.4 m/s at 100 m height above sea surface with mean wind speeds around 10 m/s, whereas other Reanalysis products lead to RMSEs larger than 2 m/s. Second, we compare our simulations to operational NWP results from the COSMO model (run by the DWD). In addition to the wind profile, also the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE

Impact of different parameterization schemes on simulation of mesoscale convective system over south-east India

Science.gov (United States)

Madhulatha, A.; Rajeevan, M.

2018-02-01

Main objective of the present paper is to examine the role of various parameterization schemes in simulating the evolution of mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred over south-east India. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, numerical experiments are conducted by considering various planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and cumulus parameterization schemes. Performances of different schemes are evaluated by examining boundary layer, reflectivity, and precipitation features of MCS using ground-based and satellite observations. Among various physical parameterization schemes, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) boundary layer scheme is able to produce deep boundary layer height by simulating warm temperatures necessary for storm initiation; Thompson (THM) microphysics scheme is capable to simulate the reflectivity by reasonable distribution of different hydrometeors during various stages of system; Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) cumulus scheme is able to capture the precipitation by proper representation of convective instability associated with MCS. Present analysis suggests that MYJ, a local turbulent kinetic energy boundary layer scheme, which accounts strong vertical mixing; THM, a six-class hybrid moment microphysics scheme, which considers number concentration along with mixing ratio of rain hydrometeors; and BMJ, a closure cumulus scheme, which adjusts thermodynamic profiles based on climatological profiles might have contributed for better performance of respective model simulations. Numerical simulation carried out using the above combination of schemes is able to capture storm initiation, propagation, surface variations, thermodynamic structure, and precipitation features reasonably well. This study clearly demonstrates that the simulation of MCS characteristics is highly sensitive to the choice of parameterization schemes.

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Convective System in Variable-Resolution CESM

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, A. E.; Jablonowski, C.

2017-12-01

Warm season precipitation over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) follows a well observed diurnal pattern of variability, peaking at night-time, due to the eastward propagation of mesoscale convection systems that develop over the eastern slopes of the Rockies in the late afternoon. While most climate models are unable to adequately capture the organization of convection and characteristic pattern of precipitation over this region, models with high enough resolution to explicitly resolve convection show improvement. However, high resolution simulations are computationally expensive and, in the case of regional climate models, are subject to boundary conditions. Newly developed variable resolution global climate models strike a balance between the benefits of high-resolution regional climate models and the large-scale dynamics of global climate models and low computational cost. Recently developed parameterizations that are insensitive to the model grid scale provide a way to improve model performance. Here, we present an evaluation of the newly available Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization scheme in a suite of variable-resolution CESM simulations with resolutions ranging from 110 km to 7 km within a regionally refined region centered over the SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Simulations utilize the hindcast approach developed by the Department of Energy's Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) for the assessment of climate models. We limit our evaluation to a single mesoscale convective system that passed over the region on May 24, 2008. The effects of grid-resolution on the timing and intensity of precipitation, as well as, on the transition from shallow to deep convection are assessed against ground-based observations from the SGP ARM site, satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis.

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

14 CFR 29.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems conducive to vapor... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 29.961...

A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

Science.gov (United States)

Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

2015-04-01

Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is

On the role of ice-nucleating aerosol in the formation of ice particles in tropical mesoscale convective systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ladino, Luis A.; Korolev, Alexei; Heckman, Ivan; Wolde, Mengistu; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ackerman, Andrew S.

2018-01-01

Over decades, the cloud physics community has debated the nature and role of aerosol particles in ice initiation. The present study shows that the measured concentration of ice crystals in tropical mesoscale convective systems exceeds the concentration of ice nucleating particles (INPs) by several orders of magnitude. The concentration of INPs was assessed from the measured aerosol particles concentration in the size range of 0.5 to 1 µm. The observations from this study suggest that primary ice crystals formed on INPs make only a minor contribution to the total concentration of ice crystals in tropical mesoscale convective systems. This is found by comparing the predicted INP number concentrations with in-situ ice particle number concentrations. The obtained measurements suggest that ice multiplication is the likely explanation for the observed high concentrations of ice crystals in this type of convective system. PMID:29551842

Weather Observation Systems and Efficiency of Fighting Forest Fires

Science.gov (United States)

Khabarov, N.; Moltchanova, E.; Obersteiner, M.

2007-12-01

Weather observation is an essential component of modern forest fire management systems. Satellite and in-situ based weather observation systems might help to reduce forest loss, human casualties and destruction of economic capital. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology to assess the benefits of various weather observation systems on reductions of burned area due to early fire detection. In particular, we consider a model where the air patrolling schedule is determined by a fire hazard index. The index is computed from gridded daily weather data for the area covering parts Spain and Portugal. We conduct a number of simulation experiments. First, the resolution of the original data set is artificially reduced. The reduction of the total forest burned area associated with air patrolling based on a finer weather grid indicates the benefit of using higher spatially resolved weather observations. Second, we consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity of the model with respect to the quality of input data. The analysis of combination of satellite and ground monitoring reveals potential cost saving due to a "system of systems effect" and substantial reduction in burned area. Finally, we estimate the marginal improvement schedule for loss of life and economic capital as a function of the improved fire observing system.

14 CFR 23.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 23.961... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 23.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each fuel system must be free from vapor lock...

Does mesoscale matters in decadal changes observed in the northern Canary upwelling system?

Science.gov (United States)

Relvas, P.; Luís, J.; Santos, A. M. P.

2009-04-01

The Western Iberia constitutes the northern limb of the Canary Current Upwelling System, one of the four Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems of the world ocean. The strong dynamic link between the atmosphere and the ocean makes these systems highly sensitive to global change, ideal to monitor and investigate its effects. In order to investigate decadal changes of the mesoscale patterns in the Northern Canary upwelling system (off Western Iberia), the field of the satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) trends was built at the pixel scale (4x4 km) for the period 1985-2007, based on the monthly mean data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board NOAA series satellites, provided by the NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The time series were limited to the nighttime passes to avoid the solar heating effect and a suite of procedures were followed to guarantee that the temperature trends were not biased towards the seasonally more abundant summer data, when the sky is considerably clear. A robust linear fit was applied to each individual pixel, crossing along the time the same pixel in all the processed monthly mean AVHRR SST images from 1985 until 2007. The field of the SST trends was created upon the slopes of the linear fits applied to each pixel. Monthly mean SST time series from the one degree enhanced International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and from near-shore measurements collected on a daily basis by the Portuguese Meteorological Office (IM) are also used to compare the results and extend the analysis back until 1960. A generalized warming trend is detected in the coastal waters off Western Iberia during the last decades, no matter which data set we analyse. However, significant spatial differences in the warming rates are observed in the satellite-derived SST trends. Remarkably, off the southern part of the Western Iberia the known

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is

How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

Science.gov (United States)

Lapenta, W.

2017-12-01

NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and

Numerical simulation and decomposition of kinetic energy in the Central Mediterranean: insight on mesoscale circulation and energy conversion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Sorgente

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The spatial and temporal variability of eddy and mean kinetic energy of the Central Mediterranean region has been investigated, from January 2008 to December 2010, by mean of a numerical simulation mainly to quantify the mesoscale dynamics and their relationships with physical forcing. In order to understand the energy redistribution processes, the baroclinic energy conversion has been analysed, suggesting hypotheses about the drivers of the mesoscale activity in this area. The ocean model used is based on the Princeton Ocean Model implemented at 1/32° horizontal resolution. Surface momentum and buoyancy fluxes are interactively computed by mean of standard bulk formulae using predicted model Sea Surface Temperature and atmospheric variables provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast operational analyses. At its lateral boundaries the model is one-way nested within the Mediterranean Forecasting System operational products.

The model domain has been subdivided in four sub-regions: Sardinia channel and southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily channel, eastern Tunisian shelf and Libyan Sea. Temporal evolution of eddy and mean kinetic energy has been analysed, on each of the four sub-regions, showing different behaviours. On annual scales and within the first 5 m depth, the eddy kinetic energy represents approximately the 60 % of the total kinetic energy over the whole domain, confirming the strong mesoscale nature of the surface current flows in this area. The analyses show that the model well reproduces the path and the temporal behaviour of the main known sub-basin circulation features. New mesoscale structures have been also identified, from numerical results and direct observations, for the first time as the Pantelleria Vortex and the Medina Gyre.

The classical kinetic energy decomposition (eddy and mean allowed to depict and to quantify the permanent and fluctuating parts of the circulation in the region, and

Influence of Special Weather on Output of PV System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zele

2018-01-01

The output of PV system is affected by different environmental factors, therefore, it is important to study the output of PV system under different environmental conditions. Through collecting data on the spot, collecting the output of photovoltaic panels under special weather conditions, and comparing the collected data, the output characteristics of the photovoltaic panels under different weather conditions are obtained. The influence of weather factors such as temperature, humidity and irradiance on the output of photovoltaic panels was investigated.

Arduino Based Weather Monitoring Telemetry System Using NRF24L01+

Science.gov (United States)

Sidqi, Rafi; Rio Rynaldo, Bagus; Hadi Suroso, Satya; Firmansyah, Rifqi

2018-04-01

Abstract-Weather is an important part of the natural environment, thus knowing weather information is needed before doing activity. The main purpose of this research was to develop a weather monitoring system which capable to transmit weather data via radio frequency by using nRF24L01+ 2,4GHz radio module. This research implement Arduino UNO as the main controller of the system which send data wirelessly using the radio module and received by a receiver system. Received data then logged and displayed using a Graphical User Interface on a personal computer. Test and experiment result show that the system was able to transmit weather data via radio wave with maximum transmitting range of 32 meters.

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

Science.gov (United States)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Benchmarking the mesoscale variability in global ocean eddy-permitting numerical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Cipollone, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Storto, Andrea; Iovino, Doroteaciro

2017-10-01

The role of data assimilation procedures on representing ocean mesoscale variability is assessed by applying eddy statistics to a state-of-the-art global ocean reanalysis (C-GLORS), a free global ocean simulation (performed with the NEMO system) and an observation-based dataset (ARMOR3D) used as an independent benchmark. Numerical results are computed on a 1/4 ∘ horizontal grid (ORCA025) and share the same resolution with ARMOR3D dataset. This "eddy-permitting" resolution is sufficient to allow ocean eddies to form. Further to assessing the eddy statistics from three different datasets, a global three-dimensional eddy detection system is implemented in order to bypass the need of regional-dependent definition of thresholds, typical of commonly adopted eddy detection algorithms. It thus provides full three-dimensional eddy statistics segmenting vertical profiles from local rotational velocities. This criterion is crucial for discerning real eddies from transient surface noise that inevitably affects any two-dimensional algorithm. Data assimilation enhances and corrects mesoscale variability on a wide range of features that cannot be well reproduced otherwise. The free simulation fairly reproduces eddies emerging from western boundary currents and deep baroclinic instabilities, while underestimates shallower vortexes that populate the full basin. The ocean reanalysis recovers most of the missing turbulence, shown by satellite products , that is not generated by the model itself and consistently projects surface variability deep into the water column. The comparison with the statistically reconstructed vertical profiles from ARMOR3D show that ocean data assimilation is able to embed variability into the model dynamics, constraining eddies with in situ and altimetry observation and generating them consistently with local environment.

How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

Science.gov (United States)

Gawor, J.

2012-04-01

Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

... 2003 pp 61-77. Indian Ocean surface winds from NCMRWF analysis as compared to QuikSCAT and moored buoy winds ... Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors · Someshwar Das ... pp 247-258. Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India.

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Science.gov (United States)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

2014-01-01

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use

Extreme gust wind estimation using mesoscale modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries

2014-01-01

, surface turbulence characteristics. In this study, we follow a theory that is different from the local gust concept as described above. In this theory, the gust at the surface is non-local; it is produced by the deflection of air parcels flowing in the boundary layer and brought down to the surface...... from the Danish site Høvsøre help us to understand the limitation of the traditional method. Good agreement was found between the extreme gust atlases for South Africa and the existing map made from a limited number of measurements across the country. Our study supports the non-local gust theory. While...... through turbulent eddies. This process is modeled using the mesoscale Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model. The gust at the surface is calculated as the largest winds over a layer where the averaged turbulence kinetic energy is greater than the averaged buoyancy force. The experiments have been...

New Mesoscale Fluvial Landscapes - Seismic Geomorphology and Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, M. J.

2013-01-01

Megafans (100-600 km radius) are very large alluvial fans that cover significant areas on most continents, the surprising finding of recent global surveys. The number of such fans and patterns of sedimentation on them provides new mesoscale architectures that can now be applied on continental fluvial depositional systems, and therefore on. Megafan-scale reconstructions underground as yet have not been attempted. Seismic surveys offer new possibilities in identifying the following prospective situations at potentially unsuspected locations: (i) sand concentrations points, (ii) sand-mud continuums at the mesoscale, (iii) paleo-valley forms in these generally unvalleyed landscapes, (iv) stratigraphic traps, and (v) structural traps.

A Quality-Control-Oriented Database for a Mesoscale Meteorological Observation Network

Science.gov (United States)

Lussana, C.; Ranci, M.; Uboldi, F.

2012-04-01

In the operational context of a local weather service, data accessibility and quality related issues must be managed by taking into account a wide set of user needs. This work describes the structure and the operational choices made for the operational implementation of a database system storing data from highly automated observing stations, metadata and information on data quality. Lombardy's environmental protection agency, ARPA Lombardia, manages a highly automated mesoscale meteorological network. A Quality Assurance System (QAS) ensures that reliable observational information is collected and disseminated to the users. The weather unit in ARPA Lombardia, at the same time an important QAS component and an intensive data user, has developed a database specifically aimed to: 1) providing quick access to data for operational activities and 2) ensuring data quality for real-time applications, by means of an Automatic Data Quality Control (ADQC) procedure. Quantities stored in the archive include hourly aggregated observations of: precipitation amount, temperature, wind, relative humidity, pressure, global and net solar radiation. The ADQC performs several independent tests on raw data and compares their results in a decision-making procedure. An important ADQC component is the Spatial Consistency Test based on Optimal Interpolation. Interpolated and Cross-Validation analysis values are also stored in the database, providing further information to human operators and useful estimates in case of missing data. The technical solution adopted is based on a LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL and Php) system, constituting an open source environment suitable for both development and operational practice. The ADQC procedure itself is performed by R scripts directly interacting with the MySQL database. Users and network managers can access the database by using a set of web-based Php applications.

Mesoscale circulation systems and ozone concentrations during ESCOMPTE: a case study from IOP 2b

Science.gov (United States)

Kalthoff, N.; Kottmeier, C.; Thürauf, J.; Corsmeier, U.; Saїd, F.; Fréjafon, E.; Perros, P. E.

2005-03-01

The main objective of 'Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution atmosphérique et de Transport d'Emissions' (ESCOMPTE) is to generate a relevant data set for testing and evaluating mesoscale chemistry-transport models (CTMs). During ESCOMPTE, measurements have been performed at numerous surface stations, by radars and lidars, and several aircraft in the planetary boundary layer. The data from these different sources have been merged to obtain a consistent description of the spatial distribution of wind, temperature, humidity, and ozone for the photosmog episode on June 25, 2001 (IOP 2b). On this day, moderate synoptic winds favour the evolution of different mesoscale circulation systems. During daytime, the sea breeze penetrates towards the north in the Rhône valley. As the winds above the sea breeze layer come from the east, polluted air from the metropolitan area of Marseille leads to an increase of ozone at elevated layers above the convective boundary layer (CBL). At the mountainous station of Luberon about 55 km north of Marseille around noon, when the CBL top surpasses the height of the mountain summit, polluted air with ozone concentrations of about 120 ppbv arrived from southerly directions, thus indicating the passage of the city plume of Marseille. At Cadarache and Vinon in the Durance valley, about 60 km inland, the ozone maximum at the surface and at flight level 920 m MSL appears between 14 and 15 UTC. At this time, southwesterly valley winds prevail in the valley, while southerly winds occur above. This finding highlights the height-dependent advection of ozone due to interacting mesoscale circulation systems. These dynamical processes need to be represented adequately in CTMs to deliver a realistic description of the ozone concentration fields.

Mesoscale Modeling, Forecasting and Remote Sensing Research.

Science.gov (United States)

remote sensing , cyclonic scale diagnostic studies and mesoscale numerical modeling and forecasting are summarized. Mechanisms involved in the release of potential instability are discussed and simulated quantitatively, giving particular attention to the convective formulation. The basic mesoscale model is documented including the equations, boundary condition, finite differences and initialization through an idealized frontal zone. Results of tests including a three dimensional test with real data, tests of convective/mesoscale interaction and tests with a detailed

Meso-scale wind variability. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, S.; Larsen, X.; Vincent, C.; Soerensen, P.; Pinson, P.; Trombe, P.-J.; Madsen, H.; Cutululis, N.

2011-11-15

The project has aimed to characterize mesoscale meteorological phenomenon for the North Sea and the Inner Danish waters, and additionally aimed on improving the predictability and quality of the power production from offshore windfarms. The meso-scale meteorology has been characterized with respect to the physical processes, climatology, spectral characteristics and correlation properties based on measurements from wind farms, satellite data (SAR) and mesoscale numerical modeling (WRF). The abilities of the WRF model to characterize and predict relevant mesoscale phenomenon has been proven. Additionally application of statistical forecasting, using a Markov switching approach that can be related to the meteorological conditions, to analyze and short term predict the power production from an offshore wind farms have been documented. Two PhD studies have been conducted in connection with the project. The project has been a cooperative project between Risoe DTU, IMM DTU, DONG Energy, Vattenfall and VESTAS. It is registered as Energinet.dk, project no. 2007-1-7141. (Author)

Assimilation of Aircraft Observations in High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian P. Reen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aircraft-based observations are a promising source of above-surface observations for assimilation into mesoscale model simulations. The Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR observations have potential advantages over some other aircraft observations including the presence of water vapor observations. The impact of assimilating TAMDAR observations via observation nudging in 1 km horizontal grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations is evaluated using five cases centered over California. Overall, the impact of assimilating the observations is mixed, with the layer with the greatest benefit being above the surface in the lowest 1000 m above ground level and the variable showing the most consistent benefit being temperature. Varying the nudging configuration demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to details of the assimilation, but does not clearly demonstrate the superiority of a specific configuration.

Quality assurance of weather data for agricultural system model input

Science.gov (United States)

It is well known that crop production and hydrologic variation on watersheds is weather related. Rarely, however, is meteorological data quality checks reported for agricultural systems model research. We present quality assurance procedures for agricultural system model weather data input. Problems...

Onset of meso-scale turbulence in active nematics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doostmohammadi, A.; Shendruk, T.N.; Thijssen, K.; Yeomans, J.M.

2017-01-01

Meso-scale turbulence is an innate phenomenon, distinct from inertial turbulence, that spontaneously occurs at low Reynolds number in fluidized biological systems. This spatiotemporal disordered flow radically changes nutrient and molecular transport in living fluids and can strongly affect the

Looking toward to the next-generation space weather forecast system. Comments former a former space weather forecaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomita, Fumihiko

1999-01-01

In the 21st century, man's space-based activities will increase significantly and many kinds of space utilization technologies will assume a vital role in the infrastructure, creating new businesses, securing the global environment, contributing much to human welfare in the world. Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) has been contributing to the safety of human activity in space and to the further understanding of the solar terrestrial environment through the study of space weather, including the upper atmosphere, magnetosphere, interplanetary space, and the sun. The next-generation Space Weather Integrated Monitoring System (SWIMS) for future space activities based on the present international space weather forecasting system is introduced in this paper. (author)

A mini-max principle for drift waves and mesoscale fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, S-I; Itoh, K

2011-01-01

A mini-max principle for the system of the drift waves and mesoscale fluctuations (e.g. zonal flows, etc) is studied. For the system of model equations a Lyapunov function is constructed, which takes the minimum when the stationary state is realized. The dynamical evolution describes the access to the state that is realized. The competition between different mesoscale fluctuations is explained. The origins of irreversibility that cause an approach to the stationary state are discussed. A selection rule among fluctuations is derived, and conditions, under which different kinds of mesocale fluctuations coexist, are investigated. An analogy of this minimum principle to the principle of 'minimum Helmholtz free energy' in thermal equilibrium is shown.

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate

Unifying Inference of Meso-Scale Structures in Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Tunç, Birkan; Verma, Ragini

2015-01-01

Networks are among the most prevalent formal representations in scientific studies, employed to depict interactions between objects such as molecules, neuronal clusters, or social groups. Studies performed at meso-scale that involve grouping of objects based on their distinctive interaction patterns form one of the main lines of investigation in network science. In a social network, for instance, meso-scale structures can correspond to isolated social groupings or groups of individuals that serve as a communication core. Currently, the research on different meso-scale structures such as community and core-periphery structures has been conducted via independent approaches, which precludes the possibility of an algorithmic design that can handle multiple meso-scale structures and deciding which structure explains the observed data better. In this study, we propose a unified formulation for the algorithmic detection and analysis of different meso-scale structures. This facilitates the investigation of hybrid structures that capture the interplay between multiple meso-scale structures and statistical comparison of competing structures, all of which have been hitherto unavailable. We demonstrate the applicability of the methodology in analyzing the human brain network, by determining the dominant organizational structure (communities) of the brain, as well as its auxiliary characteristics (core-periphery).

Unifying Inference of Meso-Scale Structures in Networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birkan Tunç

Full Text Available Networks are among the most prevalent formal representations in scientific studies, employed to depict interactions between objects such as molecules, neuronal clusters, or social groups. Studies performed at meso-scale that involve grouping of objects based on their distinctive interaction patterns form one of the main lines of investigation in network science. In a social network, for instance, meso-scale structures can correspond to isolated social groupings or groups of individuals that serve as a communication core. Currently, the research on different meso-scale structures such as community and core-periphery structures has been conducted via independent approaches, which precludes the possibility of an algorithmic design that can handle multiple meso-scale structures and deciding which structure explains the observed data better. In this study, we propose a unified formulation for the algorithmic detection and analysis of different meso-scale structures. This facilitates the investigation of hybrid structures that capture the interplay between multiple meso-scale structures and statistical comparison of competing structures, all of which have been hitherto unavailable. We demonstrate the applicability of the methodology in analyzing the human brain network, by determining the dominant organizational structure (communities of the brain, as well as its auxiliary characteristics (core-periphery.

Step 1: Human System Integration Pilot-Technology Interface Requirements for Weather Management

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

This document involves definition of technology interface requirements for Hazardous Weather Avoidance. Technology concepts in use by the Access 5 Weather Management Work Package were considered. Beginning with the Human System Integration (HIS) high-level functional requirement for Hazardous Weather Avoidance, and Hazardous Weather Avoidance technology elements, HSI requirements for the interface to the pilot were identified. Results of the analysis describe (1) the information required by the pilot to have knowledge of hazardous weather, and (2) the control capability needed by the pilot to obtain hazardous weather information. Fundamentally, these requirements provide the candidate Hazardous Weather Avoidance technology concepts with the necessary human-related elements to make them compatible with human capabilities and limitations. The results of the analysis describe how Hazardous Weather Avoidance operations and functions should interface with the pilot to provide the necessary Weather Management functionality to the UA-pilot system. Requirements and guidelines for Hazardous Weather Avoidance are partitioned into four categories: (1) Planning En Route (2) Encountering Hazardous Weather En Route, (3) Planning to Destination, and (4) Diversion Planning Alternate Airport. Each requirement is stated and is supported with a rationale and associated reference(s).

Aircraft Weather Mitigation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Science.gov (United States)

Stough, H. Paul, III

2007-01-01

Atmospheric effects on aviation are described by Mahapatra (1999) as including (1) atmospheric phenomena involving air motion - wind shear and turbulence; (2) hydrometeorological phenomena - rain, snow and hail; (3) aircraft icing; (4) low visibility; and (5) atmospheric electrical phenomena. Aircraft Weather Mitigation includes aircraft systems (e.g. airframe, propulsion, avionics, controls) that can be enacted (by a pilot, automation or hybrid systems) to suppress and/or prepare for the effects of encountered or unavoidable weather or to facilitate a crew operational decision-making process relative to weather. Aircraft weather mitigation can be thought of as a continuum (Figure 1) with the need to avoid all adverse weather at one extreme and the ability to safely operate in all weather conditions at the other extreme. Realistic aircraft capabilities fall somewhere between these two extremes. The capabilities of small general aviation aircraft would be expected to fall closer to the "Avoid All Adverse Weather" point, and the capabilities of large commercial jet transports would fall closer to the "Operate in All Weather Conditions" point. The ability to safely operate in adverse weather conditions is dependent upon the pilot s capabilities (training, total experience and recent experience), the airspace in which the operation is taking place (terrain, navigational aids, traffic separation), the capabilities of the airport (approach guidance, runway and taxiway lighting, availability of air traffic control), as well as the capabilities of the airplane. The level of mitigation may vary depending upon the type of adverse weather. For example, a small general aviation airplane may be equipped to operate "in the clouds" without outside visual references, but not be equipped to prevent airframe ice that could be accreted in those clouds.

Description of the University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4)

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, D. R.; Austin, G. L.

2005-08-01

The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) is a numerical weather prediction model of the Martian atmosphere that has been developed through the conversion of the Penn State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5). The global aspect of this model is self consistent, overlapping, and forms a continuous domain around the entire planet, removing the need to provide boundary conditions other than at initialisation, yielding independence from the constraint of a Mars general circulation model. The brief overview of the model will be given, outlining the key physical processes and setup of the model. Comparison between data collected from Mars Pathfinder during its 1997 mission and simulated conditions using GM4 have been performed. Diurnal temperature variation as predicted by the model shows very good correspondence with the surface truth data, to within 5 K for the majority of the diurnal cycle. Mars Viking Data is also compared with the model, with good agreement. As a further means of validation for the model, various seasonal comparisons of surface and vertical atmospheric structure are conducted with the European Space Agency AOPP/LMD Mars Climate Database. Selected simulations over regions of interest will also be presented.

Preliminary design of mesoscale turbocompressor and rotordynamics tests of rotor bearing system

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Md Saddam

2011-12-01

A mesoscale turbocompressor spinning above 500,000 RPM is evolutionary technology for micro turbochargers, turbo blowers, turbo compressors, micro-gas turbines, auxiliary power units, etc for automotive, aerospace, and fuel cell industries. Objectives of this work are: (1) to evaluate different air foil bearings designed for the intended applications, and (2) to design & perform CFD analysis of a micro-compressor. CFD analysis of shrouded 3-D micro compressor was conducted using Ansys Bladegen as blade generation tool, ICEM CFD as mesh generation tool, and CFX as main solver for different design and off design cases and also for different number of blades. Comprehensive experimental facilities for testing the turbocompressor system have been also designed and proposed for future work.

Surface characterization of weathered wood using a laser scanning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, M.; Lemaster, R.L.; Dost, W.A.

1992-01-01

Most of the existing methods to assess the effect of weathering on wood surfaces have some drawbacks that limit their use to specific tasks. The amount of surface erosion is often used as a measure for the weathering action. The application of a laser scanning system to reproduce surface profiles and to measure weathering erosion was tested on various samples and was found to be a very useful and superior alternative to existing methods. Further improvements of the system used can be made by refinements of the calibration procedures and by more comprehensive profile analyses. (author)

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Simulation and analysis of the mesoscale circulation in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Echevin

Full Text Available The large-scale and mesoscale circulation of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are simulated with an eddy-resolving primitive-equation regional model (RM of 1/16° resolution embedded in a general circulation model (GM of the Mediterranean Sea of 1/8° resolution. The RM is forced by a monthly climatology of heat fluxes, precipitation and wind stress. The GM, which uses the same atmospheric forcing, provides initial and boundary conditions for the RM. Analysis of the RM results shows that several realistic features of the large-scale and mesoscale circulation are evident in this region. The mean cyclonic circulation is in good agreement with observations. Mesoscale variability is intense along the coasts of Sardinia and Corsica, in the Gulf of Lions and in the Catalan Sea. The length scales of the Northern Current meanders along the Provence coast and in the Gulf of Lions’ shelf are in good agreement with observations. Winter Intermediate Water is formed along most of the north-coast shelves, between the Gulf of Genoa and Cape Creus. Advection of this water by the mean cyclonic circulation generates a complex eddy field in the Catalan Sea. Intense anticyclonic eddies are generated northeast of the Balearic Islands. These results are in good agreement with mesoscale activity inferred from satellite altimetric data. This work demonstrates the feasibility of a down-scaling system composed of a general-circulation, a regional and a coastal model, which is one of the goals of the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project.

Key words. Oceanography: physical (currents; eddies and mesoscale processes; general circulation

High-resolution numerical modeling of mesoscale island wakes and sensitivity to static topographic relief data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. G. Nunalee

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Recent decades have witnessed a drastic increase in the fidelity of numerical weather prediction (NWP modeling. Currently, both research-grade and operational NWP models regularly perform simulations with horizontal grid spacings as fine as 1 km. This migration towards higher resolution potentially improves NWP model solutions by increasing the resolvability of mesoscale processes and reducing dependency on empirical physics parameterizations. However, at the same time, the accuracy of high-resolution simulations, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL, is also sensitive to orographic forcing which can have significant variability on the same spatial scale as, or smaller than, NWP model grids. Despite this sensitivity, many high-resolution atmospheric simulations do not consider uncertainty with respect to selection of static terrain height data set. In this paper, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to simulate realistic cases of lower tropospheric flow over and downstream of mountainous islands using the default global 30 s United States Geographic Survey terrain height data set (GTOPO30, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data set (GMTED2010 terrain height data sets. While the differences between the SRTM-based and GMTED2010-based simulations are extremely small, the GTOPO30-based simulations differ significantly. Our results demonstrate cases where the differences between the source terrain data sets are significant enough to produce entirely different orographic wake mechanics, such as vortex shedding vs. no vortex shedding. These results are also compared to MODIS visible satellite imagery and ASCAT near-surface wind retrievals. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of utilizing accurate static orographic boundary conditions when running high-resolution mesoscale models.

Forecasting challenges during the severe weather outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Púčik, Tomáš; Francová, Martina; Rýva, David; Kolář, Miroslav; Ronge, Lukáš

2011-06-01

On 25 June 2008, severe thunderstorms caused widespread damage and two fatalities in the Czech Republic. Significant features of the storms included numerous downbursts on a squall line that exhibited a bow echo reflectivity pattern, with sustained wind gusts over 32 m/s at several reporting stations. Moreover, a tornado and several downbursts of F2 intensity occurred within the convective system, collocated with the development of mesovortices within the larger scale bow echo. The extent of the event was sufficient to call it a derecho, as the windstorm had affected Eastern Germany, Southern Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Northern Hungary as well. Ahead of the squall line, several well-organized isolated cells occurred, exhibiting supercellular characteristics, both from a radar and visual perspective. These storms produced large hail and also isolated severe wind gusts. This paper deals mostly with the forecasting challenges that were experienced by the meteorologist on duty during the evolution of this convective scenario. The main challenge of the day was to identify the region that would be most affected by severe convection, especially as the numerical weather prediction failed to anticipate the extent and the progress of the derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Convective storms developed in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, with strong wind shear confined mostly to the lower half of the troposphere. These developments also were strongly influenced by mesoscale factors, especially a mesolow centered over Austria and its trough stretching to Eastern Bohemia. The paper demonstrates how careful mesoscale analysis could prove useful in dealing with such convective situations. Remote-sensing methods are also shown to be useful in such situations, especially when they can offer sufficient lead time to issue a warning, which is not always the case.

It's All About the Data: Workflow Systems and Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Plale, B.

2009-05-01

Digital data is fueling new advances in the computational sciences, particularly geospatial research as environmental sensing grows more practical through reduced technology costs, broader network coverage, and better instruments. e-Science research (i.e., cyberinfrastructure research) has responded to data intensive computing with tools, systems, and frameworks that support computationally oriented activities such as modeling, analysis, and data mining. Workflow systems support execution of sequences of tasks on behalf of a scientist. These systems, such as Taverna, Apache ODE, and Kepler, when built as part of a larger cyberinfrastructure framework, give the scientist tools to construct task graphs of execution sequences, often through a visual interface for connecting task boxes together with arcs representing control flow or data flow. Unlike business processing workflows, scientific workflows expose a high degree of detail and control during configuration and execution. Data-driven science imposes unique needs on workflow frameworks. Our research is focused on two issues. The first is the support for workflow-driven analysis over all kinds of data sets, including real time streaming data and locally owned and hosted data. The second is the essential role metadata/provenance collection plays in data driven science, for discovery, determining quality, for science reproducibility, and for long-term preservation. The research has been conducted over the last 6 years in the context of cyberinfrastructure for mesoscale weather research carried out as part of the Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD) project. LEAD has pioneered new approaches for integrating complex weather data, assimilation, modeling, mining, and cyberinfrastructure systems. Workflow systems have the potential to generate huge volumes of data. Without some form of automated metadata capture, either metadata description becomes largely a manual task that is difficult if not impossible

Evaluation of cloud prediction and determination of critical relative humidity for a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seaman, N.L.; Guo, Z.; Ackerman, T.P. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

1996-04-01

Predictions of cloud occurrence and vertical location from the Pennsylvannia State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) were evaluated statistically using cloud observations obtained at Coffeyville, Kansas, as part of the Second International satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment campaign. Seventeen cases were selected for simulation during a November-December 1991 field study. MM5 was used to produce two sets of 36-km simulations, one with and one without four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), and a set of 12-km simulations without FDDA, but nested within the 36-km FDDA runs.

Dynamics of Clouds and Mesoscale Circulations over the Maritime Continent

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Y.; Wang, S.; Xian, P.; Reid, J. S.; Nachamkin, J.

2010-12-01

In recent decades Southeast Asia (SEA) has seen rapid economic growth as well as increased biomass burning, resulting in high air pollution levels and reduced air qual-ity. At the same time clouds often prevent accurate air-quality monitoring and analysis using satellite observations. The Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7SEAS) field campaign currently underway over SEA provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the com-plex interplay between aerosol and clouds. 7SEAS is a comprehensive interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences program through international partnership of NASA, NRL, ONR and seven local institutions including those from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. While the original goal of 7SEAS is to iso-late the impacts of aerosol particles on weather and the environment, it is recognized that better understanding of SEA meteorological conditions, especially those associated with cloud formation and evolution, is critical to the success of the campaign. In this study we attempt to gain more insight into the dynamic and physical processes associated with low level clouds and atmospheric circulation at the regional scale over SEA, using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS® ), a regional forecast model in operation at FNMOC since 1998. This effort comprises two main components. First, multiple-years of COAMPS operational forecasts over SEA are analyzed for basic climatology of atmospheric fea-tures. Second, mesoscale circulation and cloud properties are simulated at relatively higher resolution (15-km) for selected periods in the Gulf of Tonkin and adjacent coastal areas. Simulation results are compared to MODIS cloud observations and local sound-ings obtained during 7SEAS for model verifications. Atmospheric boundary layer proc-esses are examined in relation to spatial and temporal variations of cloud fields. The cur-rent work serves as an important step toward improving our

The influence of weather on the thermal performance of solar heating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon; Shah, Louise Jivan

2003-01-01

. The investigation is based on calculations with validated models. Solar heating systems with different solar collector types, heat storage volumes and solar fractions are included in the investigation. The yearly solar radiation varies with approximately 20 % in the period from 1990 until 2002. The calculations......The influence of weather on the thermal performance of solar combi systems, solar domestic hot water systems and solar heating plants is investigated. The investigation is based on weather data from the Danish Design Reference Year, DRY and weather data measured for a period from 1990 until 2002...... show that the thermal performance of the investigated systems varies due to the weather variation. The variation of the yearly thermal performance of a solar heating plant is about 40 % while the variation of the yearly thermal performance of a solar domestic hot water system is about 30...

Mesoscale Benchmark Demonstration Problem 1: Mesoscale Simulations of Intra-granular Fission Gas Bubbles in UO2 under Post-irradiation Thermal Annealing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Yulan; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Montgomery, Robert; Gao, Fei; Sun, Xin; Tonks, Michael; Biner, Bullent; Millet, Paul; Tikare, Veena; Radhakrishnan, Balasubramaniam; Andersson , David

2012-04-11

A study was conducted to evaluate the capabilities of different numerical methods used to represent microstructure behavior at the mesoscale for irradiated material using an idealized benchmark problem. The purpose of the mesoscale benchmark problem was to provide a common basis to assess several mesoscale methods with the objective of identifying the strengths and areas of improvement in the predictive modeling of microstructure evolution. In this work, mesoscale models (phase-field, Potts, and kinetic Monte Carlo) developed by PNNL, INL, SNL, and ORNL were used to calculate the evolution kinetics of intra-granular fission gas bubbles in UO2 fuel under post-irradiation thermal annealing conditions. The benchmark problem was constructed to include important microstructural evolution mechanisms on the kinetics of intra-granular fission gas bubble behavior such as the atomic diffusion of Xe atoms, U vacancies, and O vacancies, the effect of vacancy capture and emission from defects, and the elastic interaction of non-equilibrium gas bubbles. An idealized set of assumptions was imposed on the benchmark problem to simplify the mechanisms considered. The capability and numerical efficiency of different models are compared against selected experimental and simulation results. These comparisons find that the phase-field methods, by the nature of the free energy formulation, are able to represent a larger subset of the mechanisms influencing the intra-granular bubble growth and coarsening mechanisms in the idealized benchmark problem as compared to the Potts and kinetic Monte Carlo methods. It is recognized that the mesoscale benchmark problem as formulated does not specifically highlight the strengths of the discrete particle modeling used in the Potts and kinetic Monte Carlo methods. Future efforts are recommended to construct increasingly more complex mesoscale benchmark problems to further verify and validate the predictive capabilities of the mesoscale modeling

CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds(C3Winds) A New Wind Observing System to Study Mesoscale Cloud Dynamics and Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, D. L.; Kelly, M.A.; Yee, J.-H.; Boldt, J.; Demajistre, R.; Reynolds, E. L.; Tripoli, G. J.; Oman, L. D.; Prive, N.; Heidinger, A. K.;

Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hari Prasad

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Random Vibration of Space Shuttle Weather Protection Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isaac Elishakoff

1995-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with random vibrations of the space shuttle weather protection systems. The excitation model represents a fit to the measured experimental data. The cross-spectral density is given as a convex combination of three exponential functions. It is shown that for the type of loading considered, the Bernoulli-Euler theory cannot be used as a simplified approach, and the structure will be more properly modeled as a Timoshenko beam. Use of the simple Bernoulli-Euler theory may result in an error of about 50% in determining the mean-square value of the bending moment in the weather protection system.

Numerical simulations of island effects on airflow and weather during the summer over the island of Oahu

Science.gov (United States)

Hiep Van Nguyen; Yie-Leng Chen; Francis Fujioka

2010-01-01

The high-resolution (1.5 km) nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania StateUniversity–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and an advanced land surface model (LSM) are used to study the island-induced airflow and weather for the island of Oahu, Hawaii, under summer trade wind conditions. Despite Oahu’s relatively small...

Weather and Climate Manipulation as an Optimal Control for Adaptive Dynamical Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei A. Soldatenko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The weather and climate manipulation is examined as an optimal control problem for the earth climate system, which is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system. Weather and climate manipulations are actually amorphous operations. Since their objectives are usually formulated vaguely, the expected results are fairly unpredictable and uncertain. However, weather and climate modification is a purposeful process and, therefore, we can formulate operations to manipulate weather and climate as the optimization problem within the framework of the optimal control theory. The complexity of the earth’s climate system is discussed and illustrated using the simplified low-order coupled chaotic dynamical system. The necessary conditions of optimality are derived for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This confirms that even a relatively simplified control problem for the atmospheric dynamics requires significant efforts to obtain the solution.

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE to Assess the Impact of Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL Measurements on the Numerical Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The importance of wind observations has been recognized for many years. However, wind observations—especially three-dimensional global wind measurements—are very limited. A satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL is proposed to measure three-dimensional wind profiles using remote sensing techniques. Assimilating these observations into a mesoscale model is expected to improve the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP models. In order to examine the potential impact of the DWL three-dimensional wind profile observations on the numerical simulation and prediction of tropical cyclones, a set of observing simulation system experiments (OSSEs is performed using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. Results indicate that assimilating the DWL wind observations into the mesoscale numerical model has significant potential for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.

New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

2008-12-01

There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

Parameterization of Mixed Layer and Deep-Ocean Mesoscales Including Nonlinearity

Science.gov (United States)

Canuto, V. M.; Cheng, Y.; Dubovikov, M. S.; Howard, A. M.; Leboissetier, A.

2018-01-01

In 2011, Chelton et al. carried out a comprehensive census of mesoscales using altimetry data and reached the following conclusions: "essentially all of the observed mesoscale features are nonlinear" and "mesoscales do not move with the mean velocity but with their own drift velocity," which is "the most germane of all the nonlinear metrics."� Accounting for these results in a mesoscale parameterization presents conceptual and practical challenges since linear analysis is no longer usable and one needs a model of nonlinearity. A mesoscale parameterization is presented that has the following features: 1) it is based on the solutions of the nonlinear mesoscale dynamical equations, 2) it describes arbitrary tracers, 3) it includes adiabatic (A) and diabatic (D) regimes, 4) the eddy-induced velocity is the sum of a Gent and McWilliams (GM) term plus a new term representing the difference between drift and mean velocities, 5) the new term lowers the transfer of mean potential energy to mesoscales, 6) the isopycnal slopes are not as flat as in the GM case, 7) deep-ocean stratification is enhanced compared to previous parameterizations where being more weakly stratified allowed a large heat uptake that is not observed, 8) the strength of the Deacon cell is reduced. The numerical results are from a stand-alone ocean code with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment I (CORE-I) normal-year forcing.

Advances in Optimizing Weather Driven Electric Power Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Clack, C.; MacDonald, A. E.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A. D.; Xie, Y.; Wilczak, J. M.

2014-12-01

The importance of weather-driven renewable energies for the United States (and global) energy portfolio is growing. The main perceived problems with weather-driven renewable energies are their intermittent nature, low power density, and high costs. The National Energy with Weather System Simulator (NEWS) is a mathematical optimization tool that allows the construction of weather-driven energy sources that will work in harmony with the needs of the system. For example, it will match the electric load, reduce variability, decrease costs, and abate carbon emissions. One important test run included existing US carbon-free power sources, natural gas power when needed, and a High Voltage Direct Current power transmission network. This study shows that the costs and carbon emissions from an optimally designed national system decrease with geographic size. It shows that with achievable estimates of wind and solar generation costs, that the US could decrease its carbon emissions by up to 80% by the early 2030s, without an increase in electric costs. The key requirement would be a 48 state network of HVDC transmission, creating a national market for electricity not possible in the current AC grid. These results were found without the need for storage. Further, we tested the effect of changing natural gas fuel prices on the optimal configuration of the national electric power system. Another test that was carried out was an extension to global regions. The extension study shows that the same properties found in the US study extend to the most populous regions of the planet. The extra test is a simplified version of the US study, and is where much more research can be carried out. We compare our results to other model results.

Delayed shear enhancement in mesoscale atmospheric dispersion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moran, M.D. [Atmospheric Environment Service, Ontario (Canada); Pielke, R.A. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

1994-12-31

Mesoscale atmospheric dispersion (MAD) is more complicated than smaller-scale dispersion because the mean wind field can no longer be considered steady or horizontally homogeneous over mesoscale time and space scales. Wind shear also plays a much more important role on the mesoscale: horizontal dispersion can be enhanced and often dominated by vertical wind shear on these scales through the interaction of horizontal differential advection and vertical mixing. Just over 30 years ago, Pasquill suggested that this interaction need not be simultaneous and that the combination of differential horizontal advection with delayed or subsequent vertical mixing could maintain effective horizontal diffusion in spite of temporal or spatial reductions in boundary-layer turbulence intensity. This two-step mechanism has not received much attention since then, but a recent analysis of observations from and numerical simulations of two mesoscale tracer experiments suggests that delayed shear enhancement can play an important role in MAD. This paper presents an overview of this analysis, with particular emphasis on the influence of resolvable vertical shear on MAD in these two case studies and the contributions made by delayed shear enhancement.

VHF/UHF radar observations of tropical mesoscale convective systems over southern India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Kishore Kumar

2005-07-01

Full Text Available Several campaigns have been carried out to study the convective systems over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, a tropical station in India, using VHF and UHF radars. The height-time sections of several convective systems are investigated in detail to study reflectivity, turbulence and vertical velocity structure. Structure and dynamics of the convective systems are the main objectives of these campaigns. The observed systems are classified into single- and multi-cell systems. It has been observed that most of the convective systems at this latitude are multi-cellular in nature. Simultaneous VHF and UHF radar observations are used to classify the observed precipitating systems as convective, intermediary and stratiform regions. Composite height profiles of vertical velocities in these regions were obtained and the same were compared with the profiles obtained at other geographical locations. These composite profiles of vertical velocity in the convective regions have shown their peaks in the mid troposphere, indicating that the maximum latent heat is being released at those heights. These profiles are very important for numerical simulations of the convective systems, which vary significantly from one geographical location to the other.

Keywords. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (Mesoscale meteorology; Convective processes – Radio science (Remote sensing

VHF/UHF radar observations of tropical mesoscale convective systems over southern India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Kishore Kumar

2005-07-01

Full Text Available Several campaigns have been carried out to study the convective systems over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, a tropical station in India, using VHF and UHF radars. The height-time sections of several convective systems are investigated in detail to study reflectivity, turbulence and vertical velocity structure. Structure and dynamics of the convective systems are the main objectives of these campaigns. The observed systems are classified into single- and multi-cell systems. It has been observed that most of the convective systems at this latitude are multi-cellular in nature. Simultaneous VHF and UHF radar observations are used to classify the observed precipitating systems as convective, intermediary and stratiform regions. Composite height profiles of vertical velocities in these regions were obtained and the same were compared with the profiles obtained at other geographical locations. These composite profiles of vertical velocity in the convective regions have shown their peaks in the mid troposphere, indicating that the maximum latent heat is being released at those heights. These profiles are very important for numerical simulations of the convective systems, which vary significantly from one geographical location to the other. Keywords. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (Mesoscale meteorology; Convective processes – Radio science (Remote sensing

Mesoscale influence on long-range transport — evidence from ETEX modelling and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Rasmussen, Alix; Ellermann, Thomas; Lyck, Erik

During the first European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) tracer gas was released from a site in Brittany, France, and subsequently observed over a range of 2000 km. Hourly measurements were taken at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) located at Risø, Denmark, using two measurement techniques. At this location, the observed concentration time series shows a double-peak structure occurring between two and three days after the release. By using the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is developed at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), simulations of the dispersion of the tracer gas have been performed. Using numerical weather-prediction data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) by DERMA, the arrival time of the tracer is quite well predicted, so also is the duration of the passage of the plume, but the double-peak structure is not reproduced. However, using higher-resolution data from the DMI version of the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (DMI-HIRLAM), DERMA reproduces the observed structure very well. The double-peak structure is caused by the influence of a mesoscale anti-cyclonic eddy on the tracer gas plume about one day earlier.

Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances

Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

1995-03-01

This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

2016-12-01

Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

Weather-enabled future onboard surveillance and navigation systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mutuel, L.; Baillon, B.; Barnetche, B.; Delpy, P.

2009-09-01

With the increasing traffic and the development of business trajectories, there is a widespread need to anticipate any adverse weather conditions that could impact the performance of the flight or to use of atmospheric parameters to optimize trajectories. Current sensors onboard air transport are challenged to provide the required service, while new products for business jets and general aviation open the door to innovative assimilation of weather information in onboard surveillance and navigation. The paper aims at surveying current technology available to air transport aircraft and pointing out their shortcomings in view of the modernization proposed in SESAR and NextGen implementation plans. Foreseen innovations are then illustrated via results of ongoing research like FLYSAFE or standardization efforts, in particular meteorological datalink services and impact on Human-Machine Interface. The paper covers the operational need to avoid adverse weather like thunderstorm, icing, turbulence, windshear and volcanic ash, but also the requirement to control in 4D the trajectory through the integration of wind and temperature grids in the flight management. The former will lead to enhanced surveillance systems onboard the aircraft with new displays and new alerting schemes, ranging from targeted information supporting better re-planning to auto-escape strategies. The latter will be standard in next generation flight management systems. Finally both will rely on ATM products that will also assimilate weather information so that situational awareness is shared and decision is collaborative.

Weather Information Processing

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

Analysis of mesoscale factors at the onset of deep convection on hailstorm days in Southern France and their relation to the synoptic patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, Jose Luis; Wu, Xueke; Gascón, Estibaliz; López, Laura; Melcón, Pablo; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Berthet, Claude; Dessens, Jean; Merino, Andrés

2013-04-01

Storms and the weather phenomena associated to intense precipitation, lightning, strong winds or hail, are among the most common and dangerous weather risks in many European countries. To get a reliable forecast of their occurrence is remaining an open problem. The question is: how is possible to improve the reliability of forecast? Southwestern France is frequently affected by hailstorms, producing severe damages on crops and properties. Considerable efforts were made to improve the forecast of hailfall in this area. First of all, if we want to improve this type of forecast, it is necessary to have a good "ground truth" of the hail days and zones affected by hailfall. Fortunately, ANELFA has deployed thousands of hailpad stations in Southern France. The ANELFA processed the point hailfall data recorded during each hail season at these stations. The focus of this paper presents a methodology to improve the forecast of the occurrence of hailfall according to the synoptic environment and mesoscale factors in the study area. One hundred of hail days were selected, following spatial and severity criteria, occurred in the period 2000-2010. The mesoscale model WRF was applied for all cases to study the synoptic environment of mean geopotential and temperature fields at 500 hPa. Three nested domains have been defined following a two-way nesting strategy, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 36, 12 and 4 km, and 30 vertical terrains— following σ-levels. Then, using the Principal Component Analysis in T-Mode, 4 mesoscale configurations were defined for the fields of convective instability (CI), water vapor flux divergence and wind flow and humidity at low layer (850hPa), and several clusters were classified followed by using the K-means Clustering. Finally, we calculated several characteristic values of four hail forecast parameters: Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Storm Relative Helicity between 0 and 3 km (SRH0-3), Energy-Helicity Index (EHI) and

Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J

2000-05-01

The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

Final Report, University of California Merced: Uranium and strontium fate in waste-weathered sediments: Scaling of molecular processes to predict reactive transport (DE-SC0007095)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Day, Peggy Anne [University of California Merced; Chorover, Jon [University of Arizona; Steefel, Carl [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mueller, Karl [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Um, Wooyong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-06-30

Objectives of the Project: 1. Determine the process coupling that occurs between mineral transformation and contaminant (U and Sr) speciation in acid-uranium waste weathered Hanford sediments. 2. Establish linkages between molecular-scale contaminant speciation and meso-scale contaminant lability, release and reactive transport. 3. Make conjunctive use of molecular- to bench-scale data to constrain the development of a mechanistic, reactive transport model that includes coupling of contaminant sorption-desorption and mineral transformation reactions. Hypotheses Tested: Uranium and strontium speciation in legacy sediments from the U-8 and U-12 Crib sites can be reproduced in bench-scale weathering experiments conducted on unimpacted Hanford sediments from the same formations; Reactive transport modeling of future uranium and strontium releases from the vadose zone of acid-waste weathered sediments can be effectively constrained by combining molecular-scale information on contaminant bonding environment with grain-scale information on contaminant phase partitioning, and meso-scale kinetic data on contaminant release from the waste-weathered porous media; Although field contamination and laboratory experiments differ in their diagenetic time scales (decades for field vs. months to years for lab), sediment dissolution, neophase nucleation, and crystal growth reactions that occur during the initial disequilibrium induced by waste-sediment interaction leave a strong imprint that persists over subsequent longer-term equilibration time scales and, therefore, give rise to long-term memory effects. Enabling Capabilities Developed: Our team developed an iterative measure-model approach that is broadly applicable to elucidate the mechanistic underpinnings of reactive contaminant transport in geomedia subject to active weathering.

Total and mesoscale long-range offshore transport of organic carbon from the Canary Upwelling System to the open North Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Lovecchio, Elisa; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; Byrne, David; Lachkar, Zouhair

2017-04-01

The ocean's biological pump is often simplified to a purely vertical process. Nevertheless, the horizontal transport of organic carbon can be substantial, especially in coastal regions such as the Canary Upwelling System (CanUS), one of the four major Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, characterized by high shelf productivity and an intense lateral exchange of mass and tracers with the adjacent oligotrophic waters. Despite its importance, the magnitude of this lateral flux has not yet been constrained. Here, we quantify the lateral export of organic carbon from the CanUS to the open North Atlantic using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a biogeochemical ecosystem module. The model is run on an Atlantic telescopic grid with a strong refinement towards the north-western African shelf, to combine an eddy-resolving resolution in the region of study with a full Atlantic basin perspective. Our results reveal that over the whole CanUS more than a third of the Net Community Production (NCP) in the nearshore 100 km is transported offshore, amounting to about 19 Tg C yr-1. The offshore transport dominates the lateral fluxes up to 1500 km into the subtropical North Atlantic, along the way adding organic carbon to the upper 100 m at rates of between 8% and 34% of the alongshore average NCP. The remineralization at depth of this extra organic carbon leads to strongly negative vertically-integrated NCP throughout the whole offshore region of the CanUS, i.e. it makes the offshore region net heterotrophic. Substantial subregional variability shapes the spatial pattern of the fluxes in the CanUS. In particular, the central subregion surrounding Cape Blanc is the most efficient in terms of collecting and laterally exporting the organic carbon, resulting in a sharp peak of watercolumn heterotrophy. A decomposition of the organic carbon fluxes into a time-mean component and a time-variable, i.e., mesoscale component reveals a large contribution of the mesoscale

Satellite-derived vertical profiles of temperature and dew point for mesoscale weather forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Masselink, Thomas; Schluessel, P.

1995-12-01

Weather forecast-models need spatially high resolutioned vertical profiles of temperature and dewpoint for their initialisation. These profiles can be supplied by a combination of data from the Tiros-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the imaging Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board the NOAA polar orbiting sate!- lites. In cloudy cases the profiles derived from TOVS data only are of insufficient accuracy. The stanthrd deviations from radiosonde ascents or numerical weather analyses likely exceed 2 K in temperature and 5Kin dewpoint profiles. It will be shown that additional cloud information as retrieved from AVHIRR allows a significant improvement in theaccuracy of vertical profiles. The International TOVS Processing Package (ITPP) is coupled to an algorithm package called AVHRR Processing scheme Over cLouds, Land and Ocean (APOLLO) where parameters like cloud fraction and cloud-top temperature are determined with higher accuracy than obtained from TOVS retrieval alone. Furthermore, a split-window technique is applied to the cloud-free AVHRR imagery in order to derive more accurate surface temperatures than can be obtained from the pure TOVS retrieval. First results of the impact of AVHRR cloud detection on the quality of the profiles are presented. The temperature and humidity profiles of different retrieval approaches are validated against analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weatherforecasts.

Examples of mesoscale structures and short-term wind variations detected by VHF Doppler radar

Science.gov (United States)

Forbes, G. S.

1986-01-01

The first of three wind profilers planned for operation in central and western Pennsylvania began full-time, high-quality operation during July 1985. It is located about 20 km south-southeast of University Park and operates at 50 MHz. Another 50-MHz radar and a 400-MHz radar are to be installed over the next few months, to complete a mesoscale triangle with sides of 120 to 160 km. During the period since early July, a number of weather systems have passed over the wind profiler. Those accompanied by thunderstorms caused data losses either because the Department computer system lost power or because power went out at the profiler site. A backup power supply and an automatic re-start program will be added to the profiler system to minimize such future losses. Data have normally been averaged over a one-hour period, although there have been some investigations of shorter-period averaging. In each case, preliminary examinations reveal that the profiler winds are indicative of meteorological phenomena. The only occasions of bad or missing data are obtained when airplane noise is occasionally experienced and when the returned power is nearly at the noise level, at the upper few gates, where a consensus wind cannot be determined. Jets streams, clouds, and diurnal variations of winds are discussed.

Mesoscale modeling of solute precipitation and radiation damage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yongfeng [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schwen, Daniel [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ke, Huibin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Bai, Xianming [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hales, Jason [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

This report summarizes the low length scale effort during FY 2014 in developing mesoscale capabilities for microstructure evolution in reactor pressure vessels. During operation, reactor pressure vessels are subject to hardening and embrittlement caused by irradiation-induced defect accumulation and irradiation-enhanced solute precipitation. Both defect production and solute precipitation start from the atomic scale, and manifest their eventual effects as degradation in engineering-scale properties. To predict the property degradation, multiscale modeling and simulation are needed to deal with the microstructure evolution, and to link the microstructure feature to material properties. In this report, the development of mesoscale capabilities for defect accumulation and solute precipitation are summarized. Atomic-scale efforts that supply information for the mesoscale capabilities are also included.

Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

2000-05-01

The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

Microphysical/mesoscale aspects of nuclear winter and new directions in assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knox, J.B.

1985-06-01

Recent results of model studies and sensitivity tests have shown the degree to which the intensity and duration of ''nuclear winter'' depends on the mass of soot and dust suspended, its optical properties, its vertical distribution in the atmosphere, and the residence time. The soot from urban fires is viewed as evolving during its dispersion from the early fire induced plumes, to cloud scale systems, to the mesoscale and larger systems. Micro-physical processes are perceived as operating within these systems in a manner to enhance removal from the troposphere, and to alter the verical distribution of the soot or its subsequent, aging or evolving aerosol. Relevant observations and studies of these processes are presented and discussed. Critical inputs to the climate simulation models may well be altered significantly by these process effects, many of which are in need of better definition. Appropriate research needs to be initiated to address and better define these microphysical/mesoscale processes of potential importance in the altered atmospheric system after a major nuclear exchange. 11 refs., 2 figs

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William H., III

2010-01-01

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWO's) use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature (T) and dew pOint (T d), as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network shown in Table 1. These objective statistics give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

2017-12-05

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Dreher, Joseph G.

2009-01-01

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

2016-04-01

vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the various models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. 3. Main body abstract Twenty separate entries were received by the deadline of 31 March 2015. They included simulations done with various versions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, but also of six other well-known mesoscale models. The various entries represent an excellent sample of the various models used in by the wind energy industry today. The analysis of the submitted time series included comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, e.g. frequency and Weibull A and k. The comparison also includes the observed and modeled temporal spectra. The various statistics were grouped as a function of the various models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, and the various integration methods. Many statistics have been computed and will be presented in addition to those shown in the Helsinki presentation. 4. Conclusions The analysis of the time series from twenty entries has shown to be an invaluable source of information about state of the art in wind modeling with mesoscale models. Biases between the simulated and observed wind speeds at hub heights (80-100 m AGL) from the various models are around ±1.0 m/s and fairly independent of the site and do not seem to be directly related to the model horizontal resolution used in the modeling. As probably expected, the wind speeds from the simulations using the various version of the WRF model cluster close to each other, especially in their description of the wind profile.

The characteristics of local atmospheric circulation around the Wolsung NPP in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, G.B.; Lee, M.C.; Song, Y.I.

1998-01-01

The transport of air pollutants in coastal regions has been known to be strongly affected by the mesoscale atmospheric circulations such as sea-land breezes. These mesoscale atmospheric circulations depend on synoptic weather conditions. In this study, a three-dimensional sea-land breeze model was developed to evaluate the effects of the sea and land breezes on the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released from nuclear power plants in Korea. In the model, the hydrostatic primitive equations in the terrain-following coordinate system were used. The mesoscale atmospheric circulation simulation were carried out under various synoptic weather conditions for all seasons around the Wolsung nuclear power plant site

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction systems based on Linux cluster architectures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasqui, M.; Baldi, M.; Gozzini, B.; Maracchi, G.; Giuliani, G.; Montagnani, S.

2005-01-01

The progress in weather forecast and atmospheric science has been always closely linked to the improvement of computing technology. In order to have more accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions, more powerful computing resources are needed, in addition to more complex and better-performing numerical models. To overcome such a large computing request, powerful workstations or massive parallel systems have been used. In the last few years, parallel architectures, based on the Linux operating system, have been introduced and became popular, representing real high performance-low cost systems. In this work the Linux cluster experience achieved at the Laboratory far Meteorology and Environmental Analysis (LaMMA-CNR-IBIMET) is described and tips and performances analysed

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

Science.gov (United States)

Products Heat Index Mesoscale Precip Discussion National Forecast Charts National High & Low PQPF QPF Valid Mon May 28, 2018 Valid Tue May 29, 2018 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 options Image Format: English (PDF) (PDF Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0209 is currently in effect headline3 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion

Method and System for Dynamic Automated Corrections to Weather Avoidance Routes for Aircraft in En Route Airspace

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, B. David (Inventor); Erzberger, Heinz (Inventor); Sheth, Kapil (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A dynamic weather route system automatically analyzes routes for in-flight aircraft flying in convective weather regions and attempts to find more time and fuel efficient reroutes around current and predicted weather cells. The dynamic weather route system continuously analyzes all flights and provides reroute advisories that are dynamically updated in real time while the aircraft are in flight. The dynamic weather route system includes a graphical user interface that allows users to visualize, evaluate, modify if necessary, and implement proposed reroutes.

An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Based Nowcasting System: Software Description

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-01

14. ABSTRACT A Web service /Web interface software package has been engineered to address the need for an automated means to run the Weather Research...An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Based Nowcasting System: Software Description by Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and...Based Nowcasting System: Software Description Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and Robert E. Dumais Jr. Computational and Information Sciences

Mobile Disdrometer Observations of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems During PECAN

Science.gov (United States)

Bodine, D. J.; Rasmussen, K. L.

2015-12-01

Understanding microphysical processes in nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is an important objective of the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) experiment, which occurred from 1 June - 15 July 2015 in the central Great Plains region of the United States. Observations of MCSs were collected using a large array of mobile and fixed instrumentation, including ground-based radars, soundings, PECAN Integrated Sounding Arrays (PISAs), and aircraft. In addition to these observations, three mobile Parsivel disdrometers were deployed to obtain drop-size distribution (DSD) measurements to further explore microphysical processes in convective and stratiform regions of nocturnal MCSs. Disdrometers were deployed within close range of a multiple frequency network of mobile and fixed dual-polarization radars (5 - 30 km range), and near mobile sounding units and PISAs. Using mobile disdrometer and multiple-wavelength, dual-polarization radar data, microphysical properties of convective and stratiform regions of MCSs are investigated. The analysis will also examine coordinated Range-Height Indicator (RHI) scans over the disdrometers to elucidate vertical DSD structure. Analysis of dense observations obtained during PECAN in combination with mobile disdrometer DSD measurements contributes to a greater understanding of the structural characteristics and evolution of nocturnal MCSs.

Short-Range prediction of a Mediterranean Severe weather event using EnKF: Configuration tests

Science.gov (United States)

Carrio Carrio, Diego Saul; Homar Santaner, Víctor

2014-05-01

The afternoon of 4th October 2007, severe damaging winds and torrential rainfall affected the Island of Mallorca. This storm produced F2-F3 tornadoes in the vicinity of Palma, with one person killed and estimated damages to property exceeding 10 M€. Several studies have analysed the meteorological context in which this episode unfolded, describing the formation of a train of multiple thunderstorms along a warm front and the evolution of a squall line organized from convective activity initiated offshore Murcia during that morning. Couhet et al. (2011) attributed the correct simulation of the convective system and particularly its organization as a squall line to the correct representation of a convergence line at low-levels over the Alboran Sea during the first hours of the day. The numerical prediction of mesoscale phenomena which initiates, organizes and evolves over the sea is an extremely demanding challenge of great importance for coastal regions. In this study, we investigate the skill of a mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to predict the severe phenomena occurred on 4th October 2007. We use an Ensemble Kalman Filter which assimilates conventional (surface, radiosonde and AMDAR) data using the DART implementation from (NCAR). On the one hand, we analyse the potential of the assimilation cycle to advect critical observational data towards decisive data-void areas over the sea. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of the ensemble products to the ensemble size, grid resolution, assimilation period and physics diversity in the mesoscale model. In particular, we focus on the effect of these numerical configurations on the representation of the convective activity and the precipitation field, as valuable predictands of high impact weather. Results show that the 6-h EnKF assimilation period produces initial fields that successfully represent the environment in which initiation occurred and thus the derived numerical predictions render improved

Origin of the pre-tropical storm Debby (2006) African easterly wave-mesoscale convective system

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yuh-Lang; Liu, Liping; Tang, Guoqing; Spinks, James; Jones, Wilson

2013-05-01

The origins of the pre-Debby (2006) mesoscale convective system (MCS) and African easterly wave (AEW) and their precursors were traced back to the southwest Arabian Peninsula, Asir Mountains (AS), and Ethiopian Highlands (EH) in the vicinity of the ITCZ using satellite imagery, GFS analysis data and ARW model. The sources of the convective cloud clusters and vorticity perturbations were attributed to the cyclonic convergence of northeasterly Shamal wind and the Somali jet, especially when the Mediterranean High shifted toward east and the Indian Ocean high strengthened and its associated Somali jet penetrated farther to the north. The cyclonic vorticity perturbations were strengthened by the vorticity stretching associated with convective cloud clusters in the genesis region—southwest Arabian Peninsula. A conceptual model was proposed to explain the genesis of convective cloud clusters and cyclonic vorticity perturbations preceding the pre-Debby (2006) AEW-MCS system.

Mesoscale surface equivalent temperature (T E) for East Central USA

Science.gov (United States)

Younger, Keri; Mahmood, Rezaul; Goodrich, Gregory; Pielke, Roger A.; Durkee, Joshua

2018-04-01

The purpose of this research is to investigate near surface mesoscale equivalent temperatures (T E) in Kentucky (located in east central USA) and potential land cover influences. T E is a measure of the moist enthalpy composed of the dry bulb temperature, T, and absolute humidity. Kentucky presents a unique opportunity to perform a study of this kind because of the observational infrastructure provided by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org). This network maintains 69 research-grade, in-situ weather and climate observing stations across the Commonwealth. Equivalent temperatures were calculated utilizing high-quality observations from 33 of these stations. In addition, the Kentucky Mesonet offers higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous research on this topic. As expected, the differences (T E - T) were greatest in the summer (smallest in the winter), with an average of 35 °C (5 °C). In general, the differences were found to be the largest in the western climate division. This is attributed to agricultural land use and poorly drained land. These differences are smaller during periods of drought, signifying less influence of moisture.

Study of frontal weather system using satellite images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qureshi, J.; Ershad, S.

2005-01-01

Pakistan which is situated in the south Asian sub continent, has a peculiar climatological position. It is one of the few countries in the world, which undergo a complete transformation from summer to winter season. However this project only pertains to the winter weather conditions in Pakistan. During winter, the land masses cool off rapidly as compared to the seas and so high pressure cells are developed over land causing, weak anti-cyclonic circulation over the country. In between these cells of anti-cyclonic flow of wind, there are zones of convergence, which offer a good breeding place for low-pressure waves. The low-pressure waves are similar to the extra tropical depressions and approach and approach Pakistan from west. From the same reason these are locally called the western Disturbances. Consequently the focus of study is on the extra tropical cyclones which originate along the boundary between polar continental and tropical or polar maritime and tropical maritime air masses. The extra tropical cyclones (also called western disturbances and westerly waves.) which are embedded in westerly flow of air move across north of Pakistan are usually originate from the Mediterranean sea. These systems consist of two types of fronts i.e. warm and cold fronts. In fact these systems can be traced right from the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. The location of frontal weather is generally associated with the surrounding synoptic situation, geographical position of the westerly wave, location of subtropical jet stream, steering wind level etc. although the satellite imageries are quite helpful for forecasting the frontal weather over our region however the weather charts (both surface and upper air ) and jet maps are also very helpful for this purpose

Comparison of methods for the identification of mesoscale wind speed fluctuations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Rieke Mehrens

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Mesoscale wind speed fluctuations influence the characteristics of offshore wind energy. These recurring wind speed changes on time scales between tens of minutes and six hours lead to power output fluctuations. In order to investigate the meteorological conditions associated with mesoscale wind speed fluctuations, a measure is needed to detect these situations in wind speed time series. Previous studies used the empirical Hilbert-Huang Transform to determine the energy in the mesoscale frequency range or calculated the standard deviation of a band-pass filtered wind speed time series. The aim of this paper is to introduce newly developed empirical mesoscale fluctuation measures and to compare them with existing measures in regard to their sensitivity to recurring wind speed changes. One of the methods is based on the Hilbert-Huang Transform, two on the Fast Fourier Transform and one on wind speed increments. It is found that despite various complexity of the methods, all methods can identify days with highly variable mesoscale wind speeds equally well.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III; Hoeth, Brian

2009-01-01

This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.

Network connectivity paradigm for the large data produced by weather radar systems

Science.gov (United States)

Guenzi, Diego; Bechini, Renzo; Boraso, Rodolfo; Cremonini, Roberto; Fratianni, Simona

2014-05-01

The traffic over Internet is constantly increasing; this is due in particular to social networks activities but also to the enormous exchange of data caused especially by the so-called "Internet of Things". With this term we refer to every device that has the capability of exchanging information with other devices on the web. In geoscience (and, in particular, in meteorology and climatology) there is a constantly increasing number of sensors that are used to obtain data from different sources (like weather radars, digital rain gauges, etc.). This information-gathering activity, frequently, must be followed by a complex data analysis phase, especially when we have large data sets that can be very difficult to analyze (very long historical series of large data sets, for example), like the so called big data. These activities are particularly intensive in resource consumption and they lead to new computational models (like cloud computing) and new methods for storing data (like object store, linked open data, NOSQL or NewSQL). The weather radar systems can be seen as one of the sensors mentioned above: it transmit a large amount of raw data over the network (up to 40 megabytes every five minutes), with 24h/24h continuity and in any weather condition. Weather radar are often located in peaks and in wild areas where connectivity is poor. For this reason radar measurements are sometimes processed partially on site and reduced in size to adapt them to the limited bandwidth currently available by data transmission systems. With the aim to preserve the maximum flow of information, an innovative network connectivity paradigm for the large data produced by weather radar system is here presented. The study is focused on the Monte Settepani operational weather radar system, located over a wild peak summit in north-western Italy.

Integrated system of visualization of the meteorological information for the weather forecast - SIPROT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza

2006-01-01

The SIPROT is an operating system in real time for the handling of weather data through of a tool; it gathers together GIS and geodatabases. The SIPROT has the capacity to receive, to analyze and to exhibit weather charts of many national and international weather data in alphanumeric and binary formats from meteorological stations and satellites, as well as the results of the simulations of global and regional meteorological and wave models. The SIPROT was developed by the IDEAM to facilitate the handling of million weather dataset that take place daily and are required like elements of judgment for the inherent workings to the analyses and weather forecast

76 FR 67018 - Notice to Manufacturers of Airport In-Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-28

...-Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. DOT. ACTION: Notice to Manufacturers of In-Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information Systems... Operations. This notice requests information from manufacturers of systems meeting the technical requirements...

Mesoscale variability in the Bransfield Strait region (Antarctica during Austral summer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. García

1994-08-01

Full Text Available The Bransfield Strait is one the best-known areas of Antarctica's oceanic surroundings. In spite of this, the study of the mesoscale variability of its local circulation has been addressed only recently. This paper focuses on the mesoscale structure of local physical oceanographic conditions in the Bransfield Strait during the Austral summer as derived from the BIOANTAR 93 cruise and auxiliary remote sensing data. Moreover, data recovered from moored current meters allow identification of transient mesoscale phenomena.

Reference Evapotranspiration Retrievals from a Mesoscale Model Based Weather Variables for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prashant K. Srivastava

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo and soil moisture deficit (SMD are vital for understanding the hydrological processes, particularly in the context of sustainable water use efficiency in the globe. Precise estimation of ETo and SMD are required for developing appropriate forecasting systems, in hydrological modeling and also in precision agriculture. In this study, the surface temperature downscaled from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to estimate ETo using the boundary conditions that are provided by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. In order to understand the performance, the Hamon’s method is employed to estimate the ETo using the temperature from meteorological station and WRF derived variables. After estimating the ETo, a range of linear and non-linear models is utilized to retrieve SMD. The performance statistics such as RMSE, %Bias, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE indicates that the exponential model (RMSE = 0.226; %Bias = −0.077; NSE = 0.616 is efficient for SMD estimation by using the Observed ETo in comparison to the other linear and non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.019–0.667; %Bias range = 2.821–6.894; NSE = 0.013–0.419 used in this study. On the other hand, in the scenario where SMD is estimated using WRF downscaled meteorological variables based ETo, the linear model is found promising (RMSE = 0.017; %Bias = 5.280; NSE = 0.448 as compared to the non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.022–0.707; %Bias range = −0.207–−6.088; NSE range = 0.013–0.149. Our findings also suggest that all the models are performing better during the growing season (RMSE range = 0.024–0.025; %Bias range = −4.982–−3.431; r = 0.245–0.281 than the non−growing season (RMSE range = 0.011–0.12; %Bias range = 33.073–32.701; r = 0.161–0.244 for SMD estimation.

NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention/weather Information Communications (WINCOMM)

Science.gov (United States)

Feinberg, Arthur; Tauss, James; Chomos, Gerald (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Weather is a contributing factor in approximately 25-30 percent of general aviation accidents. The lack of timely, accurate and usable weather information to the general aviation pilot in the cockpit to enhance pilot situational awareness and improve pilot judgment remains a major impediment to improving aviation safety. NASA Glenn Research Center commissioned this 120 day weather datalink market survey to assess the technologies, infrastructure, products, and services of commercial avionics systems being marketed to the general aviation community to address these longstanding safety concerns. A market survey of companies providing or proposing to provide graphical weather information to the general aviation cockpit was conducted. Fifteen commercial companies were surveyed. These systems are characterized and evaluated in this report by availability, end-user pricing/cost, system constraints/limits and technical specifications. An analysis of market survey results and an evaluation of product offerings were made. In addition, recommendations to NASA for additional research and technology development investment have been made as a result of this survey to accelerate deployment of cockpit weather information systems for enhancing aviation safety.

A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

2018-04-01

To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

1999-01-01

Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

Mesoscale mixing of the Denmark Strait Overflow in the Irminger Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Koszalka, Inga M.; Haine, Thomas W. N.; Magaldi, Marcello G.

2017-04-01

The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is a major export route for dense waters from the Nordic Seas forming the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important element of the climate system. Mixing processes along the DSO pathway influence its volume transport and properties contributing to the variability of the deep overturning circulation. They are poorly sampled by observations, however, which hinders development of a proper DSO representation in global circulation models. We employ a high resolution regional ocean model of the Irminger Basin to quantify impact of the mesoscale flows on DSO mixing focusing on geographical localization and the time-modulation of water property changes. The model reproduces the observed bulk warming of the DSO plume 100-200 km downstream of the Denmark Strait sill. It also reveals that mesoscale variability of the overflow ('DSO-eddies', of 20-30 km extent and a time scale of 2-5 day) modulates water property changes and turbulent mixing, diagnosed with the vertical shear of horizontal velocity and the eddy heat flux divergence. The space-time localization of the DSO mixing and warming and the role of coherent mesoscale structures should be explored by turbulence measurements and factored into the coarse circulation models.

Development of a portable power system with meso-scale vortex combustor and thermo-electric device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimokuri, D; Hara, T; Ishizuka, S

2014-01-01

In this study, a small scale power generation system with a meso-scale vortex combustor has been developed. The system was consisted of a couple of thermo-electric device and a heat medium. The medium was made of duralumin, 40 × 40 × 20 mm and 52 g weight, and the vortex combustion chamber of 7 mm inner diameter was embedded in it. It was found that a stable flame could be established in the narrow 7 mm channel even the mean axial velocity reached 1.2 m/s. And furthermore, the vortex flow significantly enhanced the heat transfer from the burned gas to combustion chamber, and as a result, the medium was heated to 300°C quickly (within 5 minutes) by the combustion of propane / air mixture for 145W input energy. The system could successfully generate 1.98 W (4.3 V and 0.46 A), which corresponded to the energy conversion rate of 0.7 % per unit thermo-electric device

Tropical continental downdraft characteristics: mesoscale systems versus unorganized convection

Science.gov (United States)

Schiro, Kathleen A.; Neelin, J. David

2018-02-01

Downdrafts and cold pool characteristics for strong mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated, unorganized deep precipitating convection are analyzed using multi-instrument data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) GoAmazon2014/5 campaign. Increases in column water vapor (CWV) are observed leading convection, with higher CWV preceding MCSs than for isolated cells. For both MCSs and isolated cells, increases in wind speed, decreases in surface moisture and temperature, and increases in relative humidity occur coincidentally with system passages. Composites of vertical velocity data and radar reflectivity from a radar wind profiler show that the downdrafts associated with the sharpest decreases in surface equivalent potential temperature (θe) have a probability of occurrence that increases with decreasing height below the freezing level. Both MCSs and unorganized convection show similar mean downdraft magnitudes and probabilities with height. Mixing computations suggest that, on average, air originating at heights greater than 3 km must undergo substantial mixing, particularly in the case of isolated cells, to match the observed cold pool θe, implying a low typical origin level. Precipitation conditionally averaged on decreases in surface equivalent potential temperature (Δθe) exhibits a strong relationship because the most negative Δθe values are associated with a high probability of precipitation. The more physically motivated conditional average of Δθe on precipitation shows that decreases in θe level off with increasing precipitation rate, bounded by the maximum difference between surface θe and its minimum in the profile aloft. Robustness of these statistics observed across scales and regions suggests their potential use as model diagnostic tools for the improvement of downdraft parameterizations in climate models.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

Weather Webcam System for the Safety of Helicopter Emergency Medical Services in Miyazaki, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanemaru, Katsuhiro; Katzer, Robert; Hanato, Syu; Nakamura, Koji; Matsuoka, Hiroshi; Ochiai, Hidenobu

In Japan, the helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) system was initiated in 2001 and introduced to Miyazaki Prefecture in 2012. Mountainous areas occupy 88% of Miyazaki's land area, and HEMS flights can be subject to the effects of weather. Therefore, ensuring safety in changing weather conditions is a necessity for HEMS. The weather webcam system (WWS) was established to observe the meteorological conditions in 29 locations. Assessments of the probability of a flight based on conventional data including a weather chart provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency and meteorological reports provided by the Miyazaki Airport were compared with the assessment based on the combination of the information obtained from the WWS and the conventional data. The results showed that the probability of a flight by HEMS increased when using the WSS, leading to an increased transportation opportunity for patients in the mountains who rely on HEMS. In addition, the results indicate that the WWS may prevent flights in unfavorable weather conditions. The WWS used in conjunction with conventional weather data within Miyazaki HEMS increased the pilot's awareness of current weather conditions throughout the Prefecture, increasing the probability of accepting a flight. Copyright © 2017 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mesoscale characterization of local property distributions in heterogeneous electrodes

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Tim; Epting, William K.; Mahbub, Rubayyat; Nuhfer, Noel T.; Bhattacharya, Sudip; Lei, Yinkai; Miller, Herbert M.; Ohodnicki, Paul R.; Gerdes, Kirk R.; Abernathy, Harry W.; Hackett, Gregory A.; Rollett, Anthony D.; De Graef, Marc; Litster, Shawn; Salvador, Paul A.

2018-05-01

The performance of electrochemical devices depends on the three-dimensional (3D) distributions of microstructural features in their electrodes. Several mature methods exist to characterize 3D microstructures over the microscale (tens of microns), which are useful in understanding homogeneous electrodes. However, methods that capture mesoscale (hundreds of microns) volumes at appropriate resolution (tens of nm) are lacking, though they are needed to understand more common, less ideal electrodes. Using serial sectioning with a Xe plasma focused ion beam combined with scanning electron microscopy (Xe PFIB-SEM), two commercial solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrodes are reconstructed over volumes of 126 × 73 × 12.5 and 124 × 110 × 8 μm3 with a resolution on the order of ≈ 503 nm3. The mesoscale distributions of microscale structural features are quantified and both microscale and mesoscale inhomogeneities are found. We analyze the origin of inhomogeneity over different length scales by comparing experimental and synthetic microstructures, generated with different particle size distributions, with such synthetic microstructures capturing well the high-frequency heterogeneity. Effective medium theory models indicate that significant mesoscale variations in local electrochemical activity are expected throughout such electrodes. These methods offer improved understanding of the performance of complex electrodes in energy conversion devices.

SCOSTEP: Understanding the Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

2011-01-01

The international solar-terrestrial physics community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by the Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). The CAWSES program is the current major scientific program of SCOSTEP that will continue until the end of the year 2013. The CAWSES program has brought scientists from all over the world together to tackle the scientific issues behind the Sun-Earth connected system and explore ways of helping the human society. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and other SCOSTEP activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

Cockpit weather information needs

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Q.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale disturbances. It is of central importance to assess upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances on CCKWs as mesoscale disturbances propagate at various tilt angles and speeds. Here a simple multi-scale model is used to capture this multi-scale structure, where mesoscale fluctuations are directly driven by mesoscale heating and synoptic-scale circulation is forced by mean heating and eddy transfer of momentum and temperature. The two-dimensional version of the multi-scale model drives the synoptic-scale circulation, successfully reproduces key features of flow fields with a front-to-rear tilt and compares well with results from a cloud resolving model. In the scenario with an elevated upright mean heating, the tilted vertical structure of synoptic-scale circulation is still induced by the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances. In a faster propagation scenario, the upscale impact becomes less important, while the synoptic-scale circulation response to mean heating dominates. In the unrealistic scenario with upward/westward tilted mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the leading edge, which will suppress shallow convection in a moist environment. In its three-dimensional version, results show that upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances that propagate at tilt angles (110o 250o) induces negative lower-tropospheric potential temperature anomalies in the leading edge, providing favorable conditions for shallow convection in a moist environment, while the remaining tilt angle cases have opposite effects. Even in the presence of upright mean heating, the front-to-rear tilted synoptic-scale circulation can still be induced by eddy terms at tilt angles (120o 240o). In the case with fast propagating mesoscale heating, positive

Confronting the WRF and RAMS mesoscale models with innovative observations in the Netherlands: Evaluating the boundary layer heat budget

Science.gov (United States)

Steeneveld, G. J.; Tolk, L. F.; Moene, A. F.; Hartogensis, O. K.; Peters, W.; Holtslag, A. A. M.

2011-12-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Model System (RAMS) are frequently used for (regional) weather, climate and air quality studies. This paper covers an evaluation of these models for a windy and calm episode against Cabauw tower observations (Netherlands), with a special focus on the representation of the physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In addition, area averaged sensible heat flux observations by scintillometry are utilized which enables evaluation of grid scale model fluxes and flux observations at the same horizontal scale. Also, novel ABL height observations by ceilometry and of the near surface longwave radiation divergence are utilized. It appears that WRF in its basic set-up shows satisfactory model results for nearly all atmospheric near surface variables compared to field observations, while RAMS needed refining of its ABL scheme. An important inconsistency was found regarding the ABL daytime heat budget: Both model versions are only able to correctly forecast the ABL thermodynamic structure when the modeled surface sensible heat flux is much larger than both the eddy-covariance and scintillometer observations indicate. In order to clarify this discrepancy, model results for each term of the heat budget equation is evaluated against field observations. Sensitivity studies and evaluation of radiative tendencies and entrainment reveal that possible errors in these variables cannot explain the overestimation of the sensible heat flux within the current model infrastructure.

Modelling study of mesoscale cyclogenesis over Ross Sea, Antarctica, on February 18, 1988

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stortini, M.; Morelli, S.; Marchesi, S. [Modena e Reggio Emilia Univ., Modena (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze dell' Ingegneria, Sez. Osservatorio Geofisico

2000-04-01

This paper examines the development of a summer event of mesoscale cyclogenesis off the coast of Victoria Land in the presence of katabatic winds, by means of numerical simulations. These refer to the period from 00 UTC 17 February to 00 UTC 19 February 1988 and were performed using the hydrostatic ETA (1993 version) limited area model with resolution 55 km x 55 km x 17 levels. The ETA model reproduces katabatic winds from Terra Nova Bay and a trough on the southwestern Ross Sea. A cyclonic vortex is simulated in the trough, even though it is weaker than the one present in the analysis initialized by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (Reading, United Kingdom). Idealized simulations with varied surface conditions were also performed. In particular, an ice-covered ocean acts to weaken the atmospheric phenomena, while a no-mountain simulation emphasizes the influence of the orography and the cold winds from the coast of Victoria Land on the mesocyclonic activity.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division

National Weather Service (NWS) Station Information System (SIS), Version 2

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — National Weather Service (NWS) Station Information System (SIS) contains observing station metadata from November 2016 to present. These are renditions are used for...

Simulation of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ponomarev, V. I.; Fayman, P. A.; Prants, S. V.; Budyansky, M. V.; Uleysky, M. Yu.

2018-06-01

The eddy-resolved ocean circulation model RIAMOM (Lee et al., 2003) is used to analyze seasonal variability of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea. The model domain is a vast area including the northern Japan Sea, Okhotsk Sea and adjacent region in the Pacific Ocean. A numerical experiment with a horizontal 1/18° resolution has been carried out under realistic meteorological conditions from the ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis with restoring of surface temperature and salinity. The simulated seasonal variability of both the current system and mesoscale eddy dynamics in the Tatar Strait is in a good agreement with temperature and salinity distributions of oceanographic observation data collected during various seasons and years. Two general circulation regimes in the Strait have been found. The circulation regime changes from summer to winter due to seasonal change of the North Asian Monsoon. On a synoptic time scale, the similar change of the circulation regime occurs due to change of the southeastern wind to the northwestern one when the meteorological situation with an anticyclone over the Okhotsk Sea changes to that with a strong cyclone. The Lagrangian maps illustrate seasonal changes in direction of the main currents and in polarity and location of mesoscale eddies in the Strait.

A Gigantic Jet Observed Over an Mesoscale Convective System in Midlatitude Region

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jing; Sato, Mitsuteru; Liu, Ningyu; Lu, Gaopeng; Wang, Yu; Wang, Zhichao

2018-01-01

Gigantic jets (GJs) are mostly observed over summer tropical or tropical-like thunderstorms. This study reports observation of a GJ over a mesoscale convective system (MCS) in the midlatitude region in eastern China. The GJ is observed over a relatively weak radar reflectivity region ahead of the leading line, and the maximum radar echo top along the GJ azimuth was lower than the tropopause in the same region, significantly different from past studies that indicate summer GJs are usually associated with convective surges or overshooting tops. Also different from most of previous observations showing GJ-producing summer thunderstorms only produced GJ type of transient luminous events during their life cycles, two sprites were also captured in a time window of 15 min containing the GJ, indicating that the MCS provides favorable conditions not only for the GJ but also for the sprites. The balloon-borne soundings of the MCS show that there were large wind shears in the middle and upper levels of the thundercloud, which may have played important roles for the GJ production.

A Two-Dimensional Gridded Solar Forecasting System using Situation-Dependent Blending of Multiple Weather Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, S.; Hwang, Y.; Shao, X.; Hamann, H.

2015-12-01

Previously, we reported the application of a "weather situation" dependent multi-model blending approach to improve the forecast accuracy of solar irradiance and other atmospheric parameters. The approach uses machine-learning techniques to classify "weather situations" by a set of atmospheric parameters. The "weather situation" classification is location-dependent and each "weather situation" has characteristic forecast errors from a set of individual input numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The input models are thus corrected or combined differently for different "weather situations" to minimize the overall forecast error. While the original implementation of the model-blending is applicable to only point-like locations having historical data of both measurements and forecasts, here we extend the approach to provide two-dimensional (2D) gridded forecasts. An experimental 2D forecasting system has been set up to provide gridded forecasts of solar irradiance (global horizontal irradiance), temperature, wind speed, and humidity for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Validation results show around 30% enhancement of 0 to 48 hour ahead solar irradiance forecast accuracy compared to the best input NWP model. The forecasting system may be leveraged by other site- or region-specific solar energy forecast products. To enable the 2D forecasting system, historical solar irradiance measurements from around 1,600 selected sites of the remote automated weather stations (RAWS) network have been employed. The CONUS was divided into smaller sub-regions, each containing a group of 10 to 20 RAWS sites. A group of sites, as classified by statistical analysis, have similar "weather patterns", i.e. the NWPs have similar "weather situation" dependent forecast errors for all sites in a group. The model-blending trained by the historical data from a group of sites is then applied for all locations in the corresponding sub-region. We discuss some key techniques developed for

Vertical Transport by Coastal Mesoscale Convective Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardo, K.; Kading, T.

2016-12-01

This work is part of an ongoing investigation of coastal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), including changes in vertical transport of boundary layer air by storms moving from inland to offshore. The density of a storm's cold pool versus that of the offshore marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), in part, determines the ability of the storm to successfully cross the coast, the mechanism driving storm propagation, and the ability of the storm to lift air from the boundary layer aloft. The ability of an MCS to overturn boundary layer air can be especially important over the eastern US seaboard, where warm season coastal MCSs are relatively common and where large coastal population centers generate concentrated regions of pollution. Recent work numerically simulating idealized MCSs in a coastal environment has provided some insight into the physical mechanisms governing MCS coastal crossing success and the impact on vertical transport of boundary layer air. Storms are simulated using a cloud resolving model initialized with atmospheric conditions representative of a Mid-Atlantic environment. Simulations are run in 2-D at 250 m horizontal resolution with a vertical resolution stretched from 100 m in the boundary layer to 250 m aloft. The left half of the 800 km domain is configured to represent land, while the right half is assigned as water. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to quantify the influence of varying MABL structure on MCS coastal crossing success and air transport, with MABL values representative of those observed over the western Mid-Atlantic during warm season. Preliminary results indicate that when the density of the cold pool is much greater than the MABL, the storm successfully crosses the coastline, with lifting of surface parcels, which ascend through the troposphere. When the density of the cold pool is similar to that of the MABL, parcels within the MABL remain at low levels, though parcels above the MABL ascend through the troposphere.

Subregional characterization of mesoscale eddies across the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Evan; Pascual, Ananda; Gaube, Peter; Ruiz, Simón; Pelegrí, Josep L.; Delepoulle, Antoine

2017-04-01

Horizontal and vertical motions associated with coherent mesoscale structures, including eddies and meanders, are responsible for significant global transports of many properties, including heat and mass. Mesoscale vertical fluxes also influence upper ocean biological productivity by mediating the supply of nutrients into the euphotic layer, with potential impacts on the global carbon cycle. The Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) is a western boundary current region in the South Atlantic with intense mesoscale activity. This region has an active role in the genesis and transformation of water masses and thus is a critical component of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The collision between the Malvinas and Brazil Currents over the Patagonian shelf/slope creates an energetic front that translates offshore to form a vigorous eddy field. Recent improvements in gridded altimetric sea level anomaly fields allow us to track BMC mesoscale eddies with high spatial and temporal resolutions using an automated eddy tracker. We characterize the eddies across fourteen 5° × 5° subregions. Eddy-centric composites of tracers and geostrophic currents diagnosed from a global reanalysis of surface and in situ data reveal substantial subregional heterogeneity. The in situ data are also used to compute the evolving quasi-geostrophic vertical velocity (QG-ω) associated with each instantaneous eddy instance. The QG-ω eddy composites have the expected dipole patterns of alternating upwelling/downwelling, however, the magnitude and sign of azimuthally averaged vertical velocity varies among subregions. Maximum eddy values are found near fronts and sharp topographic gradients. In comparison with regional eddy composites, subregional composites provide refined information about mesoscale eddy heterogeneity.

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

Science.gov (United States)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Parameterization of phase change of water in a mesoscale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levkov, L; Eppel, D; Grassl, H

1987-01-01

A parameterization scheme of phase change of water is suggested to be used in the 3-D numerical nonhydrostatic model GESIMA. The microphysical formulation follows the so-called bulk technique. With this procedure the net production rates in the balance equations for water and potential temperature are given both for liquid and ice-phase. Convectively stable as well as convectively unstable mesoscale systems are considered. With 2 figs..

Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Wedan, R. W.

1983-01-01

The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Performance of WRF for Simulation of Mesoscale Meteorological Characteristics for Air Quality Assessment over Tropical Coastal City, Chennai

Science.gov (United States)

Madala, Srikanth; Srinivas, C. V.; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

2018-01-01

The land-sea breezes (LSBs) play an important role in transporting air pollution from urban areas on the coast. In this study, the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used for predicting boundary layer features to understand the transport of pollution in different seasons over the coastal region of Chennai in Southern India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with two non-local [Yonsei University (YSU) and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2)] and three turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) closure [Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi and Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE)], planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes for simulating the thermodynamic structure, and low-level atmospheric flow in different seasons. Comparison of simulations with observations from a global positioning system (GPS) radiosonde, meteorological tower, automated weather stations, and Doppler weather radar (DWR)-derived wind data reveals that the characteristics of LSBs vary widely in different seasons and are more prominent during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (March-September) with large horizontal and vertical extents compared to the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The qualitative and quantitative results indicate that simulations with ACM2 followed by MYNN2 and YSU produced various features of the LSBs, boundary layer parameters and the thermo-dynamical structure in better agreement with observations than other tested physical parameterization schemes. Simulations revealed seasonal variation of onset time, vertical extent of LSBs, and mixed layer depth, which would influence the air pollution dispersion in different seasons over the study region.

Caltrans WeatherShare Phase II System: An Application of Systems and Software Engineering Process to Project Development

Science.gov (United States)

2009-08-25

In cooperation with the California Department of Transportation, Montana State University's Western Transportation Institute has developed the WeatherShare Phase II system by applying Systems Engineering and Software Engineering processes. The system...

Extratropical Weather Systems on Mars: Radiatively-Active Water Ice Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

2017-01-01

Extratropical, large-scale weather disturbances, namely transient, synoptic-period,baroclinic barotropic eddies - or - low- (high-) pressure cyclones (anticyclones), are components fundamental to global circulation patterns for rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmospheres such as Earth and Mars. Such "wave-like" disturbances that arise via (geophysical) fluid shear instability develop, mature and decay, and travel west-to-east in the middle and high latitudes within terrestrial-like planetary atmospheres. These disturbances serve as critical agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Moreover, they transport trace species within the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor/ice, other aerosols (dust), chemical species, etc). Between early autumn through early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equator-to-pole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems [Banfield et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 1993]. A good example of traveling weather systems, frontal wave activity and sequestered dust activity from MGS/MOC image analyses is provided in Figure 1 (cf. Wang et al. [2005]). Utilizing an upgraded and evolving version of the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Mars global climate model, investigated here are key dynamical and physical aspects of simulated northern hemisphere (NH) large-scale extratropica lweather systems,with and without radiatively-active water ice clouds. Mars Climate Model:

Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

Mesoscale brain explorer, a flexible python-based image analysis and visualization tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Haupt, Dirk; Vanni, Matthieu P; Bolanos, Federico; Mitelut, Catalin; LeDue, Jeffrey M; Murphy, Tim H

2017-07-01

Imaging of mesoscale brain activity is used to map interactions between brain regions. This work has benefited from the pioneering studies of Grinvald et al., who employed optical methods to image brain function by exploiting the properties of intrinsic optical signals and small molecule voltage-sensitive dyes. Mesoscale interareal brain imaging techniques have been advanced by cell targeted and selective recombinant indicators of neuronal activity. Spontaneous resting state activity is often collected during mesoscale imaging to provide the basis for mapping of connectivity relationships using correlation. However, the information content of mesoscale datasets is vast and is only superficially presented in manuscripts given the need to constrain measurements to a fixed set of frequencies, regions of interest, and other parameters. We describe a new open source tool written in python, termed mesoscale brain explorer (MBE), which provides an interface to process and explore these large datasets. The platform supports automated image processing pipelines with the ability to assess multiple trials and combine data from different animals. The tool provides functions for temporal filtering, averaging, and visualization of functional connectivity relations using time-dependent correlation. Here, we describe the tool and show applications, where previously published datasets were reanalyzed using MBE.

Derivation and precision of mean field electrodynamics with mesoscale fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Hongzhe; Blackman, Eric G.

2018-06-01

Mean field electrodynamics (MFE) facilitates practical modelling of secular, large scale properties of astrophysical or laboratory systems with fluctuations. Practitioners commonly assume wide scale separation between mean and fluctuating quantities, to justify equality of ensemble and spatial or temporal averages. Often however, real systems do not exhibit such scale separation. This raises two questions: (I) What are the appropriate generalized equations of MFE in the presence of mesoscale fluctuations? (II) How precise are theoretical predictions from MFE? We address both by first deriving the equations of MFE for different types of averaging, along with mesoscale correction terms that depend on the ratio of averaging scale to variation scale of the mean. We then show that even if these terms are small, predictions of MFE can still have a significant precision error. This error has an intrinsic contribution from the dynamo input parameters and a filtering contribution from differences in the way observations and theory are projected through the measurement kernel. Minimizing the sum of these contributions can produce an optimal scale of averaging that makes the theory maximally precise. The precision error is important to quantify when comparing to observations because it quantifies the resolution of predictive power. We exemplify these principles for galactic dynamos, comment on broader implications, and identify possibilities for further work.

Error Covariance Estimation of Mesoscale Data Assimilation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Xu, Qin

2005-01-01

The goal of this project is to explore and develop new methods of error covariance estimation that will provide necessary statistical descriptions of prediction and observation errors for mesoscale data assimilation...

Contribution of mesoscale eddies to Black Sea ventilation

Science.gov (United States)

Capet, Arthur; Mason, Evan; Pascual, Ananda; Grégoire, Marilaure

2017-04-01

The shoaling of the Black Sea oxycline is one of the most urgent environmental issues in the Black Sea. The permanent oxycline derives directly from the Black Sea permanent stratification and has shoaled alarmingly in the last decades, due to a shifting balance between oxygen consumption and ventilation processes (Capet et al. 2016). The understanding of this balance is thus of the utmost importance and requires to quantify 1) the export of nutrients and organic materials from the shelf regions to the open sea and 2) the ventilation processes. These two processes being influenced by mesoscale features, it is critical to understand the role of the semi-permanent mesoscale structures in horizontal (center/periphery) and vertical (diapycnal and isopycnal) exchanges. A useful insight can be obtained by merging observations from satellite altimeter and in situ profilers (ARGO). In such composite analyses, eddies are first automatically identified and tracked from altimeter data (Mason et al. 2014, py-eddy-tracker). Vertical ARGO profiles are then expressed in terms of their position relative to eddy centers and radii. Derived statistics indicate how consistently mesoscale eddies alter the vertical structure, and provide a deeper understanding of the associated horizontal and vertical fluxes. However, this data-based approach is limited in the Black Sea due to the lower quality of gridded altimetric products in the vicinity of the coast, where semi-permanent mesoscale structures prevail. To complement the difficult analysis of this sparse dataset, a compositing methodology. is also applied to model outputs from the 5km GHER-BHAMBI Black Sea implementation (CMEMS BS-MFC). Characteristic biogeochemical anomalies associated with eddies in the model are analyzed per se, and compared to the observation-based analysis. Capet, A., Stanev, E. V., Beckers, J.-M., Murray, J. W., and Grégoire, M.: Decline of the Black Sea oxygen inventory, Biogeosciences, 13, 1287-1297, doi:10

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Thermoelectric generator installation at Divide Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS).

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-13

The Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (DOT&PF) has a network of Road Weather Information System (RWIS) environmental sensor stations (ESS) deployed along the road network. Six of the stations do not have access to commercial power an...

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

2009-01-01

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Wind-Farm Parametrisations in Mesoscale Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

2013-01-01

In this paper we compare three wind-farm parametrisations for mesoscale models against measurement data from the Horns Rev I offshore wind-farm. The parametrisations vary from a simple rotor drag method, to more sophisticated models. Additional to (4) we investigated the horizontal resolution dep...

Tropical Atlantic Hurricanes, Easterly Waves, and West African Mesoscale Convective Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yves K. Kouadio

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between tropical Atlantic hurricanes (Hs, atmospheric easterly waves (AEWs, and West African mesoscale convective systems (MCSs is investigated. It points out atmospheric conditions over West Africa before hurricane formation. The analysis was performed for two periods, June–November in 2004 and 2005, during which 12 hurricanes (seven in 2004, five in 2005 were selected. Using the AEW signature in the 700 hPa vorticity, a backward trajectory was performed to the African coast, starting from the date and position of each hurricane, when and where it was catalogued as a tropical depression. At this step, using the Meteosat-7 satellite dataset, we selected all the MCSs around this time and region, and tracked them from their initiation until their dissipation. This procedure allowed us to relate each of the selected Hs with AEWs and a succession of MCSs that occurred a few times over West Africa before initiation of the hurricane. Finally, a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST was observed with a positive SST anomaly within the region of H generation and a negative SST anomaly within the Gulf of Guinea. This SST anomaly dipole could contribute to enhance the continental convergence associated with the monsoon that impacts on the West African MCSs formation.

On-line data acquisition system for Aanderaa weather station

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

AshokKumar, K.; Diwan, S.G.

Aanderaa Weather Station can be installed at unattended remote places for collection of various weather parameters at regular preselected intervals. The weather parameters are recorded on the magnetic spool inside a battery operated datalogger which...

Space Weather- Physics and Effects

CERN Document Server

Bothmer, Volker

2007-01-01

This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

Storm and cloud dynamics

CERN Document Server

Cotton, William R

1992-01-01

This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

Impact of Assimilation of Conventional and Satellite Radiance GTS Observations on Simulation of Mesoscale Convective System Over Southeast India Using WRF-3DVar

Science.gov (United States)

Madhulatha, A.; Rajeevan, M.; Bhowmik, S. K. Roy; Das, A. K.

2018-01-01

The primary goal of present study is to investigate the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite radiance observations in simulating the mesoscale convective system (MCS) formed over south east India. An assimilation methodology based on Weather Research and Forecasting model three dimensional variational data assimilation is considered. Few numerical experiments are carried out to examine the individual and combined impact of conventional and non-conventional (satellite radiance) observations. After the successful inclusion of additional observations, strong analysis increments of temperature and moisture fields are noticed and contributed to significant improvement in model's initial fields. The resulting model simulations are able to successfully reproduce the prominent synoptic features responsible for the initiation of MCS. Among all the experiments, the final experiment in which both conventional and satellite radiance observations assimilated has showed considerable impact on the prediction of MCS. The location, genesis, intensity, propagation and development of rain bands associated with the MCS are simulated reasonably well. The biases of simulated temperature, moisture and wind fields at surface and different pressure levels are reduced. Thermodynamic, dynamic and vertical structure of convective cells associated with the passage of MCS are well captured. Spatial distribution of rainfall is fairly reproduced and comparable to TRMM observations. It is demonstrated that incorporation of conventional and satellite radiance observations improved the local and synoptic representation of temperature, moisture fields from surface to different levels of atmosphere. This study highlights the importance of assimilation of conventional and satellite radiances in improving the models initial conditions and simulation of MCS.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

A three-dimensional ocean mesoscale simulation using data from the SEMAPHORE experiment: Mixed layer heat budget

Science.gov (United States)

Caniaux, Guy; Planton, Serge

1998-10-01

A primitive equation model is used to simulate the mesoscale circulation associated with a portion of the Azores Front investigated during the intensive observation period (IOP) of the Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiment in fall 1993. The model is a mesoscale version of the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) developed at the Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie (LODYC) in Paris and includes open lateral boundaries, a 1.5-level-order turbulence closure scheme, and fine mesh resolution (0.11° for latitude and 0.09° for longitude). The atmospheric forcing is provided by satellite data for the solar and infrared fluxes and by analyzed (or reanalyzed for the wind) atmospheric data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast model. The extended data set collected during the IOP of SEMAPHORE enables a detailed initialization of the model, a coupling with the rest of the basin through time dependent open boundaries, and a model/data comparison for validation. The analysis of model outputs indicates that most features are in good agreement with independent available observations. The surface front evolution is subject to an intense deformation different from that of the deep front system, which evolves only weakly. An estimate of the upper layer heat budget is performed during the 22 days of the integration of the model. Each term of this budget is analyzed according to various atmospheric events that occurred during the experiment, such as the passage of a strong storm. This facilitates extended estimates of mixed layer or relevant surface processes beyond those which are obtainable directly from observations. Surface fluxes represent 54% of the heat loss in the mixed layer and 70% in the top 100-m layer, while vertical transport at the mixed layer bottom accounts for 31% and three-dimensional processes account for 14%.

Mesoscale simulation of concrete spall failure

Science.gov (United States)

Knell, S.; Sauer, M.; Millon, O.; Riedel, W.

2012-05-01

Although intensively studied, it is still being debated which physical mechanisms are responsible for the increase of dynamic strength and fracture energy of concrete observed at high loading rates, and to what extent structural inertia forces on different scales contribute to the observation. We present a new approach for the three dimensional mesoscale modelling of dynamic damage and cracking in concrete. Concrete is approximated as a composite of spherical elastic aggregates of mm to cm size embedded in an elastic cement stone matrix. Cracking within the matrix and at aggregate interfaces in the μm range are modelled with adaptively inserted—initially rigid—cohesive interface elements. The model is applied to analyse the dynamic tensile failure observed in Hopkinson-Bar spallation experiments with strain rates up to 100/s. The influence of the key mesoscale failure parameters of strength, fracture energy and relative weakening of the ITZ on macromechanic strength, momentum and energy conservation is numerically investigated.

Gateway National Weather Service (NWS) Service Records and Retention System (SRRS)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Service Records Retention System (SRRS) was developed to store weather observations, summaries, forecasts, warnings, and advisories provided by the U.S. National...

Improved Weather Forecasting for the Dynamic Scheduling System of the Green Bank Telescope

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Kari; Maddalena, Ronald

2018-01-01

The Robert C Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) uses a software system that dynamically schedules observations based on models of vertical weather forecasts produced by the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS provides hourly forecasted values for ~60 layers that extend into the stratosphere over the observatory. We use models, recommended by the Radiocommunication Sector of the International Telecommunications Union, to derive the absorption coefficient in each layer for each hour in the NWS forecasts and for all frequencies over which the GBT has receivers, 0.1 to 115 GHz. We apply radiative transfer models to derive the opacity and the atmospheric contributions to the system temperature, thereby deriving forecasts applicable to scheduling radio observations for up to 10 days into the future. Additionally, the algorithms embedded in the data processing pipeline use historical values of the forecasted opacity to calibrate observations. Until recently, we have concentrated on predictions for high frequency (> 15 GHz) observing, as these need to be scheduled carefully around bad weather. We have been using simple models for the contribution of rain and clouds since we only schedule low-frequency observations under these conditions. In this project, we wanted to improve the scheduling of the GBT and data calibration at low frequencies by deriving better algorithms for clouds and rain. To address the limitation at low frequency, the observatory acquired a Radiometrics Corporation MP-1500A radiometer, which operates in 27 channels between 22 and 30 GHz. By comparing 16 months of measurements from the radiometer against forecasted system temperatures, we have confirmed that forecasted system temperatures are indistinguishable from those measured under good weather conditions. Small miss-calibrations of the radiometer data dominate the comparison. By using recalibrated radiometer measurements, we looked at bad weather days to derive better models for forecasting the

Operational mesoscale atmospheric dispersion prediction using high performance parallel computing cluster for emergency response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivas, C.V.; Venkatesan, R.; Muralidharan, N.V.; Das, Someshwar; Dass, Hari; Eswara Kumar, P.

2005-08-01

An operational atmospheric dispersion prediction system is implemented on a cluster super computer for 'Online Emergency Response' for Kalpakkam nuclear site. The numerical system constitutes a parallel version of a nested grid meso-scale meteorological model MM5 coupled to a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The system provides 48 hour forecast of the local weather and radioactive plume dispersion due to hypothetical air borne releases in a range of 100 km around the site. The parallel code was implemented on different cluster configurations like distributed and shared memory systems. Results of MM5 run time performance for 1-day prediction are reported on all the machines available for testing. A reduction of 5 times in runtime is achieved using 9 dual Xeon nodes (18 physical/36 logical processors) compared to a single node sequential run. Based on the above run time results a cluster computer facility with 9-node Dual Xeon is commissioned at IGCAR for model operation. The run time of a triple nested domain MM5 is about 4 h for 24 h forecast. The system has been operated continuously for a few months and results were ported on the IMSc home page. Initial and periodic boundary condition data for MM5 are provided by NCMRWF, New Delhi. An alternative source is found to be NCEP, USA. These two sources provide the input data to the operational models at different spatial and temporal resolutions and using different assimilation methods. A comparative study on the results of forecast is presented using these two data sources for present operational use. Slight improvement is noticed in rainfall, winds, geopotential heights and the vertical atmospheric structure while using NCEP data probably because of its high spatial and temporal resolution. (author)

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldi, M.; Colacino, M.; Dalu, G. A.; Piervitali, E.; Ye, Z.

1998-01-01

In this paper the Authors discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the peninsula of Calabria, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., 'Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria', edited by A. Guerrini, in the series P. S., 'Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno' (CNR, Rome) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper

Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldi, M.; Colacino, M.; Dalu, G. A.; Piervitali, E.; Ye, Z. [CNR, Rome (Italy). Ist. di Fisica dell`Atmosfera

1998-07-01

In this paper the Authors discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the peninsula of Calabria, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., `Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria`, edited by A. Guerrini, in the series P. S., `Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno` (CNR, Rome) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper.

Implications of Automotive and Trucking On-Board Information Systems for General Aviation Cockpit Weather Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

2002-01-01

In this study, current characteristics and future developments of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in the automobile and trucking industry are investigated to identify the possible implications of such systems for General Aviation (GA) cockpit weather systems. First, ITS are explained based on tracing their historical development in various countries. Then, current systems and the enabling communication technologies are discussed. Finally, a market analysis for GA is included.

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

2013-01-01

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

Multi-sensor in situ observations to resolve the sub-mesoscale features in the stratified Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Lips, Urmas; Kikas, Villu; Liblik, Taavi; Lips, Inga

2016-05-01

High-resolution numerical modeling, remote sensing, and in situ data have revealed significant role of sub-mesoscale features in shaping the distribution pattern of tracers in the ocean's upper layer. However, in situ measurements are difficult to conduct with the required resolution and coverage in time and space to resolve the sub-mesoscale, especially in such relatively shallow basins as the Gulf of Finland, where the typical baroclinic Rossby radius is 2-5 km. To map the multi-scale spatiotemporal variability in the gulf, we initiated continuous measurements with autonomous devices, including a moored profiler and Ferrybox system, which were complemented by dedicated research-vessel-based surveys. The analysis of collected high-resolution data in the summers of 2009-2012 revealed pronounced variability at the sub-mesoscale in the presence of mesoscale upwelling/downwelling, fronts, and eddies. The horizontal wavenumber spectra of temperature variance in the surface layer had slopes close to -2 between the lateral scales from 10 to 0.5 km. Similar tendency towards the -2 slopes of horizontal wavenumber spectra of temperature variance was found in the seasonal thermocline between the lateral scales from 10 to 1 km. It suggests that the ageostrophic sub-mesoscale processes could contribute considerably to the energy cascade in such a stratified sea basin. We showed that the intrusions of water with different salinity, which indicate the occurrence of a layered flow structure, could appear in the process of upwelling/downwelling development and relaxation in response to variable wind forcing. We suggest that the sub-mesoscale processes play a major role in feeding surface blooms in the conditions of coupled coastal upwelling and downwelling events in the Gulf of Finland.

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone Jal simulations to physics ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tial to predict a mesoscale weather system. Previ- ous sensitivity studies ... Forecast System (GFS) real time prediction. In this study, the ... time prediction is akin to running a real time fore- cast. Furthermore ...... Operating system. Red hat Linux.

Prioritization Scheme for Proposed Road Weather Information System Sites: Montana Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Al-Kaisy

2017-08-01

Full Text Available A model for prioritization of new proposed environmental sensor station (ESS sites is developed and presented in this paper. The model assesses the overall merit (OM of a proposed ESS site as part of a Road Weather Information System (RWIS using weather, traffic, and safety data among other variables. The purpose of the proposed model is to help in selecting optimum sites for new ESS locations, which is important in guiding RWIS system expansion. Inputs to the OM model include weather index (WI, traffic index (TI, crash index, geographic coverage, and opportunistic factors. The WI at a proposed site is determined using multiple indicators of weather severity and variability. The crash index, another major input to the OM model, incorporates crash rate along the route and the percentage of weather-related crashes over the analysis period. The TI, in turn, reflects the amount of travel on the highway network in the area surrounding the proposed ESS site. The fourth input to the merit model accounts for the ESS existing coverage in the area where the proposed site is located, while the fifth and last input is concerned with the availability and ease of access to power and communications. Model coefficients are represented by weights that reflect the contribution of each input (variable to the OM of the ESS site. Those weights are user-specified and should be selected to reflect the agency preferences and priorities. The application of the proposed merit model on sample sites in Montana demonstrated the utility of the model in ranking candidate sites using data readily available to highway agencies.

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

Mesoscale Climate Evaluation Using Grid Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Campos Velho, H. F.; Freitas, S. R.; Souto, R. P.; Charao, A. S.; Ferraz, S.; Roberti, D. R.; Streck, N.; Navaux, P. O.; Maillard, N.; Collischonn, W.; Diniz, G.; Radin, B.

2012-04-01

The CLIMARS project is focused to establish an operational environment for seasonal climate prediction for the Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The dynamical downscaling will be performed with the use of several software platforms and hardware infrastructure to carry out the investigation on mesoscale of the global change impact. The grid computing takes advantage of geographically spread out computer systems, connected by the internet, for enhancing the power of computation. The ensemble climate prediction is an appropriated application for processing on grid computing, because the integration of each ensemble member does not have a dependency on information from another ensemble members. The grid processing is employed to compute the 20-year climatology and the long range simulations under ensemble methodology. BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model) is a mesoscale model developed from a version of the RAMS (from the Colorado State University - CSU, USA). BRAMS model is the tool for carrying out the dynamical downscaling from the IPCC scenarios. Long range BRAMS simulations will provide data for some climate (data) analysis, and supply data for numerical integration of different models: (a) Regime of the extreme events for temperature and precipitation fields: statistical analysis will be applied on the BRAMS data, (b) CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled Chemistry Aerosol Tracer Transport - BRAMS) is an environmental prediction system that will be used to evaluate if the new standards of temperature, rain regime, and wind field have a significant impact on the pollutant dispersion in the analyzed regions, (c) MGB-IPH (Portuguese acronym for the Large Basin Model (MGB), developed by the Hydraulic Research Institute, (IPH) from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil) will be employed to simulate the alteration of the river flux under new climate patterns. Important meteorological input variables for the MGB-IPH are the precipitation (most relevant

Parametric study on the advantages of weather-predicted control algorithm of free cooling ventilation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medved, Sašo; Babnik, Miha; Vidrih, Boris; Arkar, Ciril

2014-01-01

Predicted climate changes and the increased intensity of urban heat islands, as well as population aging, will increase the energy demand for the cooling of buildings in the future. However, the energy demand for cooling can be efficiently reduced by low-exergy free-cooling systems, which use natural processes, like evaporative cooling or the environmental cold of ambient air during night-time ventilation for the cooling of buildings. Unlike mechanical cooling systems, the energy for the operation of free-cooling system is needed only for the transport of the cold from the environment into the building. Because the natural cold potential is time dependent, the efficiency of free-cooling systems could be improved by introducing a weather forecast into the algorithm for the controlling. In the article, a numerical algorithm for the optimization of the operation of free-cooling systems with night-time ventilation is presented and validated on a test cell with different thermal storage capacities and during different ambient conditions. As a case study, the advantage of weather-predicted controlling is presented for a summer week for typical office room. The results show the necessity of the weather-predicted controlling of free-cooling ventilation systems for achieving the highest overall energy efficiency of such systems in comparison to mechanical cooling, better indoor comfort conditions and a decrease in the primary energy needed for cooling of the buildings. - Highlights: • Energy demand for cooling will increase due to climate changes and urban heat island • Free cooling could significantly reduce energy demand for cooling of the buildings. • Free cooling is more effective if weather prediction is included in operation control. • Weather predicted free cooling operation algorithm was validated on test cell. • Advantages of free-cooling on mechanical cooling is shown with different indicators

Development of a GSI-Based, 2D-VAR Data Assimilation System for Operational Wave Guidance at the National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

Flampouris, S.; Alves, H.; Pondeca, M.

2016-02-01

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provides wave guidance to the National Weather Service (NWS) via a suite of operational wave models, which include three global-scale systems. An approach is being developed to include data assimilation into the global wave models using a 2D version of NCEP's grid-point statistical interpolation (2D-GSI), as described in Derber & Rosatti (1989), and Pondeca et al (2011). As a first step to the global implementation of a wave DA system, a prototype is being developed that will consist of adding wave heights as an analysis variable to the operational Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA), which provides hourly analyses of several near sea-surface meteorological parameters, and supports a variety of applications within the NWS. The core of the RTMA is a 2D version of the GSI, which is a variational data assimilation system, and the first guess for the wave-height analysis is provided by NCEP's global wave models. For the new application, the RTMA will be modified to reflect background error covariances consistent with wave-height fields for regional and nearshore applications. In addition, quality control modules for in situ and altimeter significant wave height have been developed and integrated into the system. The strengths and the performance of the 2D-GSI are illustrated with both in situ and satellite measurements of significant wave height in the NW Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The validation of follows the typical cross-validation procedure of RTMA products, based on 10% of the observations, for a period of 15 days. The error statistics (mean, root-mean-square) of the wave-height analysis shows significant improvement, relative to the first guess.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Advanced Corrections for InSAR Using GPS and Numerical Weather Models

Science.gov (United States)

Cossu, F.; Foster, J. H.; Amelung, F.; Varugu, B. K.; Businger, S.; Cherubini, T.

2017-12-01

We present results from an investigation into the application of numerical weather models for generating tropospheric correction fields for Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). We apply the technique to data acquired from a UAVSAR campaign as well as from the CosmoSkyMed satellites. The complex spatial and temporal changes in the atmospheric propagation delay of the radar signal remain the single biggest factor limiting InSAR's potential for hazard monitoring and mitigation. A new generation of InSAR systems is being built and launched, and optimizing the science and hazard applications of these systems requires advanced methodologies to mitigate tropospheric noise. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate a 900 m spatial resolution atmospheric models covering the Big Island of Hawaii and an even higher, 300 m resolution grid over the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. By comparing a range of approaches, from the simplest, using reanalyses based on typically available meteorological observations, through to the "kitchen-sink" approach of assimilating all relevant data sets into our custom analyses, we examine the impact of the additional data sets on the atmospheric models and their effectiveness in correcting InSAR data. We focus particularly on the assimilation of information from the more than 60 GPS sites in the island. We ingest zenith tropospheric delay estimates from these sites directly into the WRF analyses, and also perform double-difference tomography using the phase residuals from the GPS processing to robustly incorporate heterogeneous information from the GPS data into the atmospheric models. We assess our performance through comparisons of our atmospheric models with external observations not ingested into the model, and through the effectiveness of the derived phase screens in reducing InSAR variance. Comparison of the InSAR data, our atmospheric analyses, and assessments of the active local and mesoscale

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

Science.gov (United States)

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

2016-01-01

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

A model for the identification of tropical weather systems over South ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

drinie

2002-07-03

Jul 3, 2002 ... with, these two high-pressure systems, controls to a large extent, the weather of ... researchers provided general rules to differentiate between tropical- ..... inclusion of this graph therefore does not serve as a verification of.

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

2009-01-01

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

Numerical simulation of heavy precipitation events using mesoscale weather forecast models. Validation with radar data and diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget; Numerische Simulation von Starkniederschlagsereignissen mit mesoskaligen Wettervorhersagemodellen. Ueberpruefung mit Radar-Daten und Diagnose der atmosphaerischen Wasserbilanz

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keil, C.

2000-07-01

Convective precipitation systems contribute substantially to the summertime rainfall maximum in the northern Alpine region. The capability of mesoscale weather forecast models in capturing such heavy precipitation events is investigated. The complementary application of so far hardly used areal radar data and conventional rain gauge observations enables a case-study-type evaluation of summertime precipitation episodes. Different rainfall episodes are simulated with the former operational model (DM, meshsize 14 km) of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The influence of the horizontal resolution and the parameterization of moist convection is subsequently studied with a higher resolution atmospheric model (MC2, meshsize 2 km). Diagnostic studies on the atmospheric water budget regarding the rainfall episode, which instigated the Oder-flood in summer 1997, allow an examination of the origin of the moisture and the genesis of the copious precipitation. (orig.) [German] Konvektive Niederschlagssysterne tragen im Nordalpenraum wesentlich zum sommerlichen Niederschlagsmaximum bei. Die Faehigkeit mesoskaliger Wettervorhersagemodelle, solche Starkniederschlagsereignisse zu erfassen, wird in dieser Arbeit untersucht. Durch den komplementaeren Gebrauch von, bisher kaum genutzten, flaechendeckenden Radardaten und konventionellen Niederschlagsmessungen des Bodenmessnetzes werden Modellergebnisse sommerlicher Niederschlagssysteme fallstudienhaft detailliert ueberprueft. Fuer verschiedene Starkniederschlagsereignisse werden dazu Modellsimulationen mit dem in den 90er Jahren operationellen Modell (DM, Maschenweite 14 km) des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) durchgefuehrt. Zur Untersuchung des Einflusses der horizontalen Maschenweite und der Niederschlagsparametrisierung werden ferner numerische Simulationen mit einem hoeher aufloesdenden Atmosphaerenmodell (MC2, Maschenweite 2 km) behandelt. Anhand diagnostischer Untersuchungen der atmosphaerischen Wasserbilanz laesst sich ausserdem die

Weather in the Cockpit: Priorities, Sources, Delivery, and Needs in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

System GSD ----------- NOAA/ESRL/ Global Systems Division IAF ------------- Initial Approach Fix IFR ------------- Instrument Flight Rules IMC... uncertainties . A distillation of our review of the literature and a new detailed analysis of our own leads to the weather factors shown in Figure 1...ratings of weather factors differed between operating in visual flight rules (VFR) and operating in instrument flight rules ( IFR ). In characterizing

Understanding the roles of ligand promoted dissolution, water column saturation and hydrological properties on intense basalt weathering using reactive transport and watershed-scale hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Perez Fodich, A.; Walter, M. T.; Derry, L. A.

2016-12-01

The interaction of rocks with rainwater generates physical and chemical changes, which ultimately culminates in soil development. The addition of catalyzers such as plants, atmospheric gases and hydrological properties will result in more intense and/or faster weathering transformations. The intensity of weathering across the Island of Hawaii is strongly correlated with exposure age and time-integrated precipitation. Intense weathering has resulted from interaction between a thermodynamically unstable lithology, high water/rock ratios, atmospheric gases (O2, CO2) and biota as an organic acid and CO2 producer. To further investigate the role of different weathering agents we have developed 1-D reactive transport models (RTM) to understand mineralogical and fluid chemistry changes in the initially basaltic porous media. The initial meso-scale heterogeneity of porosity makes it difficult for RTMs to capture changes in runoff/groundwater partitioning. Therefore, hydraulic properties (hydraulic conductivity and aquifer depth) are modeled as a watershed parameter appropriate for this system where sub-surface hydraulic data is scarce(1). Initial results agree with field data in a broad sense: different rainfall regimes and timescales show depletion of mobile cations, increasingly low pH, congruent dissolution of olivine and pyroxene, incongruent dissolution of plagioclase and basaltic glass, precipitation of non-crystalline allophane and ferrihydrite, and porosity changes due to dissolution and precipitation of minerals; ultimately Al and Fe are also exported from the system. RTM is used to examine the roles of unsaturation in the soil profile, ligand promoted dissolution of Al- and Fe-bearing phases, and Fe-oxide precipitation at the outcrop scale. Also, we aim to test the use of recession flow analysis to model watershed-scale hydrological properties to extrapolate changes in the runoff/groundwater partitioning. The coupling between weathering processes and hydrologic

Numerical modeling of a downwind-developing mesoscale convective system over the Masurian Lake District

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wójcik Damian K.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Meteorological data concerning the severe convective system from the 21 August 2007 are analyzed in this study. Compiled information allows to understand the reason for the storm development and to identify its fundamental convective mode. Next, the EULAG model is utilized to perform an idealized test that shows a downwind–developing storm growth in an environment comparable to the one that was observed on the 21 August 2007 in the Masurian Lake District. Finally, the COSMO numerical weather prediction model is applied to reconstruct the storm development. The experiment is carried out for various computational grids having the horizontal grid length between 7.0 and 0.55 km. It turns out that the COSMO model is capable in simulating storms of that type. Since the model is used for operational weather forecasting in Poland the evaluation of this skill contributes to the increase of public safety.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2006-01-01

An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) During the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hart, Kenneth

2003-01-01

The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...

Evaluation of a variable speed limit system for wet and extreme weather conditions : phase 1 report.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

Weather presents considerable challenges to the highway system, both in terms of safety and operations. From a safety standpoint, weather (i.e. precipitation in the form of rain, snow or ice) reduces pavement friction, thus increasing the potential f...

Aerosol radiative effects on mesoscale cloud-precipitation variables over Northeast Asia during the MAPS-Seoul 2015 campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Shin-Young; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Lee, Taehyoung; Kim, Cheol-Hee

2018-01-01

The online model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is employed to interpret the effects of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction on mesoscale meteorological fields over Northeast Asia during the Megacity Air Pollution Study-Seoul (MAPS-Seoul) 2015 campaign. The MAPS-Seoul campaign is a pre-campaign of the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign conducted over the Korean Peninsula. We validated the WRF-Chem simulations during the campaign period, and analyzed aerosol-warm cloud interactions by diagnosing both aerosol direct, indirect, and total effects. The results demonstrated that aerosol directly decreased downward shortwave radiation up to -44% (-282 W m-2) for this period and subsequently increased downward longwave radiation up to +15% (∼52 W m-2) in the presence of low-level clouds along the thematic area. Aerosol increased cloud fraction indirectly up to ∼24% with the increases of both liquid water path and the droplet number mixing ratio. Precipitation properties were altered both directly and indirectly. Direct effects simply changed cloud-precipitation quantities via simple updraft process associated with perturbed radiation and temperature, while indirect effects mainly suppressed precipitation, but sometimes increased precipitation in the higher relative humidity atmosphere or near vapor-saturated condition. The total aerosol effects caused a time lag of the precipitation rate with the delayed onset time of up to 9 h. This implies the importance of aerosol effects in improving mesoscale precipitation rate prediction in the online approach in the presence of non-linear warm cloud.

Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

Science.gov (United States)

Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

2009-12-01

Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial

Silica Retention and Enrichment in Open-System Chemical Weathering on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, A. S.; Ming, D. W.; Gellert, R.; Clark, B. C.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.; Morris, R. V.; Thompson, L. M.; Berger, J.

2015-01-01

Chemical signatures of weathering are evident in the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) datasets from Gusev Crater, Meridiani Planum, and Gale Crater. Comparisons across the landing sites show consistent patterns indicating silica retention and/or enrichment in open-system aqueous alteration.

The influence of mesoscale porosity on cortical bone anisotropy. Investigations via asymptotic homogenization

Science.gov (United States)

Parnell, William J; Grimal, Quentin

2008-01-01

Recently, the mesoscale of cortical bone has been given particular attention in association with novel experimental techniques such as nanoindentation, micro-computed X-ray tomography and quantitative scanning acoustic microscopy (SAM). A need has emerged for reliable mathematical models to interpret the related microscopic and mesoscopic data in terms of effective elastic properties. In this work, a new model of cortical bone elasticity is developed and used to assess the influence of mesoscale porosity on the induced anisotropy of the material. Only the largest pores (Haversian canals and resorption cavities), characteristic of the mesoscale, are considered. The input parameters of the model are derived from typical mesoscale experimental data (e.g. SAM data). We use the method of asymptotic homogenization to determine the local effective elastic properties by modelling the propagation of low-frequency elastic waves through an idealized material that models the local mesostructure. We use a novel solution of the cell problem developed by Parnell & Abrahams. This solution is stable for the physiological range of variation of mesoscopic porosity and elasticity found in bone. Results are computed efficiently (in seconds) and the solutions can be implemented easily by other workers. Parametric studies are performed in order to assess the influence of mesoscopic porosity, the assumptions regarding the material inside the mesoscale pores (drained or undrained bone) and the shape of pores. Results are shown to be in good qualitative agreement with existing schemes and we describe the potential of the scheme for future use in modelling more complex microstructures for cortical bone. In particular, the scheme is shown to be a useful tool with which to predict the qualitative changes in anisotropy due to variations in the structure at the mesoscale. PMID:18628200

The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Arthur I.; Fox, Nicola; Lucid, Shannon

2003-01-01

Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

Operation of a Data Acquisition, Transfer, and Storage System for the Global Space-Weather Observation Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T Nagatsuma

2014-10-01

Full Text Available A system to optimize the management of global space-weather observation networks has been developed by the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT. Named the WONM (Wide-area Observation Network Monitoring system, it enables data acquisition, transfer, and storage through connection to the NICT Science Cloud, and has been supplied to observatories for supporting space-weather forecast and research. This system provides us with easier management of data collection than our previously employed systems by means of autonomous system recovery, periodical state monitoring, and dynamic warning procedures. Operation of the WONM system is introduced in this report.

Automated Irrigation System using Weather Prediction for Efficient Usage of Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Susmitha, A.; Alakananda, T.; Apoorva, M. L.; Ramesh, T. K.

2017-08-01

In agriculture the major problem which farmers face is the water scarcity, so to improve the usage of water one of the irrigation system using drip irrigation which is implemented is “Automated irrigation system with partition facility for effective irrigation of small scale farms” (AISPF). But this method has some drawbacks which can be improved and here we are with a method called “Automated irrigation system using weather prediction for efficient usage of water resources’ (AISWP), it solves the shortcomings of AISPF process. AISWP method helps us to use the available water resources more efficiently by sensing the moisture present in the soil and apart from that it is actually predicting the weather by sensing two parameters temperature and humidity thereby processing the measured values through an algorithm and releasing the water accordingly which is an added feature of AISWP so that water can be efficiently used.

A synoptic climatology of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems in the North-Central Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.; Byrd, Stephen F.

2000-09-01

Synoptic-scale environments favourable for producing derechos, or widespread convectively induced windstorms, in the North-Central Plains are examined with the goal of providing pattern-recognition/diagnosis techniques. Fifteen derechos were identified across the North-Central Plains region during 1986-1995. The synoptic environment at the initiation, mid-point and decay of each derecho was then evaluated using surface, upper-air and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets.Results suggest that the synoptic environment is critical in maintaining derecho producing mesoscale convective systems (DMCSs). The synoptic environment in place downstream of the MCS initiation region determines the movement and potential strength of the system. Circulation around surface low pressure increased the instability gradient and maximized leading edge convergence in the initiation region of nearly all events regardless of DMCS location or movement. Other commonalities in the environments of these events include the presence of a weak thermal boundary, high convective instability and a layer of dry low-to-mid-tropospheric air. Of the two corridors sampled, northeastward moving derechos tend to initiate east of synoptic-scale troughs, while southeastward moving derechos form on the northeast periphery of a synoptic-scale ridge. Other differences between these two DMCS events are also discussed.

Do we need full mesoscale models to simulate the urban heat island? A study over the city of Barcelona.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; Rodó, Xavier

2016-04-01

As most of the population lives in urban environments, the simulation of the urban climate has become an important part of the global climate change impact assessment. However, due to the high resolution required, these simulations demand a large amount of computational resources. Here we present a comparison between a simplified fast urban climate model (UrbClim) and a widely used full mesoscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, over the city of Barcelona. In order to check the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, both simulations were compared with station data and with land surface temperature observations retrieved by satellites, focusing on the urban heat island. The effect of changing the UrbClim boundary conditions was studied too, by using low resolution global reanalysis data (70 km) and a higher resolution forecast model (15 km). Finally, a strict comparison of the computational resources consumed by both models was carried out. Results show that, generally, the performance of the simple model is comparable to or better than the mesoscale model. The exception are the winds and the day-to-day correlation in the reanalysis driven run, but these problems disappear when taking the boundary conditions from a higher resolution global model. UrbClim was found to run 133 times faster than WRF, using 4x times higher resolution and, thus, it is an efficient solution for running long climate change simulations over large city ensembles.

Near Real Time MISR Wind Observations for Numerical Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, K. J.; Protack, S.; Rheingans, B. E.; Hansen, E. G.; Jovanovic, V. M.; Baker, N.; Liu, J.; Val, S.

2014-12-01

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) project, in association with the NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC), has this year adapted its original production software to generate near-real time (NRT) cloud-motion winds as well as radiance imagery from all nine MISR cameras. These products are made publicly available at the ASDC with a latency of less than 3 hours. Launched aboard the sun-synchronous Terra platform in 1999, the MISR instrument continues to acquire near-global, 275 m resolution, multi-angle imagery. During a single 7 minute overpass of any given area, MISR retrieves the stereoscopic height and horizontal motion of clouds from the multi-angle data, yielding meso-scale near-instantaneous wind vectors. The ongoing 15-year record of MISR height-resolved winds at 17.6 km resolution has been validated against independent data sources. Low-level winds dominate the sampling, and agree to within ±3 ms-1 of collocated GOES and other observations. Low-level wind observations are of particular interest to weather forecasting, where there is a dearth of observations suitable for assimilation, in part due to reliability concerns associated with winds whose heights are assigned by the infrared brightness temperature technique. MISR cloud heights, on the other hand, are generated from stereophotogrammetric pattern matching of visible radiances. MISR winds also address data gaps in the latitude bands between geostationary satellite coverage and polar orbiting instruments that obtain winds from multiple overpasses (e.g. MODIS). Observational impact studies conducted by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) have both demonstrated forecast improvements when assimilating MISR winds. An impact assessment using the GEOS-5 system is currently in progress. To benefit air quality forecasts, the MISR project is currently investigating the feasibility of generating near-real time aerosol products.

Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Dolman

1999-08-01

Full Text Available As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture poor. The models' underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions · Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meterology

Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Dolman

Full Text Available As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture poor. The models' underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.

Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions · Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meterology

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2015-05-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

THE APPLICATION OF AN EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHM TO THE OPTIMIZATION OF A MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werth, D.; O' Steen, L.

2008-02-11

We show that a simple evolutionary algorithm can optimize a set of mesoscale atmospheric model parameters with respect to agreement between the mesoscale simulation and a limited set of synthetic observations. This is illustrated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). A set of 23 RAMS parameters is optimized by minimizing a cost function based on the root mean square (rms) error between the RAMS simulation and synthetic data (observations derived from a separate RAMS simulation). We find that the optimization can be efficient with relatively modest computer resources, thus operational implementation is possible. The optimization efficiency, however, is found to depend strongly on the procedure used to perturb the 'child' parameters relative to their 'parents' within the evolutionary algorithm. In addition, the meteorological variables included in the rms error and their weighting are found to be an important factor with respect to finding the global optimum.

Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan

2017-07-07

Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair crews

Data assimilation of a ten-day period during June 1993 over the Southern Great Plains Site using a nested mesoscale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudhia, J.; Guo, Y.R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

1996-04-01

A goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been to obtain a complete representation of physical processes on the scale of a general circulation model (GCM) grid box in order to better parameterize radiative processes in these models. Since an observational network of practical size cannot be used alone to characterize the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site`s 3D structure and time development, data assimilation using the enhanced observations together with a mesoscale model is used to give a full 4D analysis at high resolution. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been applied over a ten-day continuous period in a triple-nested mode with grid sizes of 60, 20 and 6.67 in. The outer domain covers the United States` 48 contiguous states; the innermost is a 480-km square centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. A simulation has been run with data assimilation using the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) 60-km analyses from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The nested domains take boundary conditions from and feed back continually to their parent meshes (i.e., they are two-way interactive). As reported last year, this provided a simulation of the basic features of mesoscale events over the CART site during the period 16-26 June 1993 when an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) was under way.

The Influence of Aerosol Hygroscopicity on Precipitation Intensity During a Mesoscale Convective Event

Science.gov (United States)

Kawecki, Stacey; Steiner, Allison L.

2018-01-01

We examine how aerosol composition affects precipitation intensity using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (version 3.6). By changing the prescribed default hygroscopicity values to updated values from laboratory studies, we test model assumptions about individual component hygroscopicity values of ammonium, sulfate, nitrate, and organic species. We compare a baseline simulation (BASE, using default hygroscopicity values) with four sensitivity simulations (SULF, increasing the sulfate hygroscopicity; ORG, decreasing organic hygroscopicity; SWITCH, using a concentration-dependent hygroscopicity value for ammonium; and ALL, including all three changes) to understand the role of aerosol composition on precipitation during a mesoscale convective system (MCS). Overall, the hygroscopicity changes influence the spatial patterns of precipitation and the intensity. Focusing on the maximum precipitation in the model domain downwind of an urban area, we find that changing the individual component hygroscopicities leads to bulk hygroscopicity changes, especially in the ORG simulation. Reducing bulk hygroscopicity (e.g., ORG simulation) initially causes fewer activated drops, weakened updrafts in the midtroposphere, and increased precipitation from larger hydrometeors. Increasing bulk hygroscopicity (e.g., SULF simulation) simulates more numerous and smaller cloud drops and increases precipitation. In the ALL simulation, a stronger cold pool and downdrafts lead to precipitation suppression later in the MCS evolution. In this downwind region, the combined changes in hygroscopicity (ALL) reduces the overprediction of intense events (>70 mm d-1) and better captures the range of moderate intensity (30-60 mm d-1) events. The results of this single MCS analysis suggest that aerosol composition can play an important role in simulating high-intensity precipitation events.

Recipes for correcting the impact of effective mesoscale resolution on the estimation of extreme winds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Ott, Søren; Badger, Jake

2012-01-01

Extreme winds derived from simulations using mesoscale models are underestimated due to the effective spatial and temporal resolutions. This is reflected in the spectral domain as an energy deficit in the mesoscale range. The energy deficit implies smaller spectral moments and thus underestimatio...

Mesoscale cyclogenesis over the western north Pacific Ocean during TPARC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher A. Davis

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Three cases of mesoscale marine cyclogenesis over the subtropics of the Western Pacific Ocean are investigated. Each case occurred during the THORPEX Pacific Asia Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08 field phases in 2008. Each cyclone developed from remnants of disturbances that earlier showed potential for tropical cyclogenesis within the tropics. Two of the cyclones produced gale-force surface winds, and one, designated as a tropical cyclone, resulted in a significant coastal storm over eastern Japan. Development was initiated by a burst of organized mesoscale convection that consolidated and intensified the surface cyclonic circulation over a period of 12–24 h. Upper-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies modulated the vertical wind shear that, in turn, influenced the periods of cyclone intensification and weakening. Weak baroclinicity associated with vertical shear was also deemed important in organizing mesoscale ascent and the convection outbreaks. The remnant tropical disturbances contributed exceptional water vapour content to higher latitudes that led to strong diabatic heating, and the tropical remnants contributed vorticity that was the seed of the development in the subtropics. Predictability of these events more than three days in advance appears to be minimal.

Space weathering and the color indexes of minor bodies in the outer Solar System

Science.gov (United States)

Kaňuchová, Zuzana; Brunetto, Rosario; Melita, Mario; Strazzulla, Giovanni

2012-09-01

The surfaces of small bodies in the outer Solar System are rich in organic compounds and carbonaceous refractories mixed with ices and silicates. As made clear by dedicated laboratory experiments space weathering (e.g. energetic ion bombardment) can produce red colored materials starting from bright and spectrally flat ices. In a classical scenario, the space weathering processes “nurture” alter the small bodies surface spectra but are in competition with resurfacing agents that restore the original colors, and the result of these competing processes continuously modifying the surfaces is supposed to be responsible for the observed spectral variety of those small bodies. However an alternative point of view is that the different colors are due to “nature” i.e. to the different primordial composition of different objects. In this paper we present a model, based on laboratory results, that gives an original contribution to the “nature” vs. “nurture” debate by addressing the case of surfaces showing different fractions of rejuvenated vs. space weathered surface, and calculating the corresponding color variations. We will show how a combination of increasing dose coupled to different resurfacing can reproduce the whole range of observations of small outer Solar System bodies. Here we demonstrate, for the first time that objects having a fully weathered material turn back in the color-color diagrams. At the same time, object with the different ratio of pristine and weathered surface areas lay on specific lines in color-color diagrams, if exposed to the same amount of irradiation.

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Christopher M.; Fan, Xingang; Mahmood, Rezaul; Groves, Chris; Polk, Jason S.; Yan, Jun

2018-03-01

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land-atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant

Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đorđević Bojan S.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

A Study of Mesoscale Gravity Waves over the North Atlantic with Satellite Observations and a Mesoscale Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Dong L.; Zhang, Fuqing

2004-01-01

Satellite microwave data are used to study gravity wave properties and variabilities over the northeastern United States and the North Atlantic in the December-January periods. The gravity waves in this region, found in many winters, can reach the stratopause with growing amplitude. The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations show that the wave occurrences are correlated well with the intensity and location of the tropospheric baroclinic jet front systems. To further investigate the cause(s) and properties of the North Atlantic gravity waves, we focus on a series of wave events during 19-21 January 2003 and compare AMSU-A observations to simulations from a mesoscale model (MM5). The simulated gravity waves compare qualitatively well with the satellite observations in terms of wave structures, timing, and overall morphology. Excitation mechanisms of these large-amplitude waves in the troposphere are complex and subject to further investigations.

Three-dimensional Mesoscale Simulations of Detonation Initiation in Energetic Materials with Density-based Kinetics

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Thomas; Jost, A. M.; Zhang, Ju; Sridharan, P.; Amadio, G.

2017-06-01

In this work we present three-dimensional mesoscale simulations of detonation initiation in energetic materials. We solve the reactive Euler equations, with the energy equation augmented by a power deposition term. The reaction rate at the mesoscale is modelled using a density-based kinetics scheme, adapted from standard Ignition and Growth models. The deposition term is based on previous results of simulations of pore collapse at the microscale, modelled at the mesoscale as hot-spots. We carry out three-dimensional mesoscale simulations of random packs of HMX crystals in a binder, and show that the transition between no-detonation and detonation depends on the number density of the hot-spots, the initial radius of the hot-spot, the post-shock pressure of an imposed shock, and the amplitude of the power deposition term. The trends of transition at lower pressure of the imposed shock for larger number density of pore observed in experiments is reproduced. Initial attempts to improve the agreement between the simulation and experiments through calibration of various parameters will also be made.

Measuring weather for aviation safety in the 1980's

Science.gov (United States)

Wedan, R. W.

1980-01-01

Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Simulating air temperature in an urban street canyon in all weather conditions using measured data at a reference meteorological station

Science.gov (United States)

Erell, E.; Williamson, T.

2006-10-01

A model is proposed that adapts data from a standard meteorological station to provide realistic site-specific air temperature in a city street exposed to the same meso-scale environment. In addition to a rudimentary description of the two sites, the canyon air temperature (CAT) model requires only inputs measured at standard weather stations; yet it is capable of accurately predicting the evolution of air temperature in all weather conditions for extended periods. It simulates the effect of urban geometry on radiant exchange; the effect of moisture availability on latent heat flux; energy stored in the ground and in building surfaces; air flow in the street based on wind above roof height; and the sensible heat flux from individual surfaces and from the street canyon as a whole. The CAT model has been tested on field data measured in a monitoring program carried out in Adelaide, Australia, in 2000-2001. After calibrating the model, predicted air temperature correlated well with measured data in all weather conditions over extended periods. The experimental validation provides additional evidence in support of a number of parameterisation schemes incorporated in the model to account for sensible heat and storage flux.

Micro- and meso-scale effects of forested terrain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dellwik, Ebba; Mann, Jakob; Sogachev, Andrey

2011-01-01

scales are the height of the planetary boundary layer and the Monin-Obukhov length, which both are related to the energy balance of the surface. Examples of important micro- and meso-scale effects of forested terrain are shown using data and model results from recent and ongoing experiments. For micro......The height and rotor diameter of modern wind turbines are so extensive, that the wind conditions they encounter often are well above the surface layer, where traditionally it is assumed that wind direction and turbulent fluxes are constant with respect to height, if the surface is homogenous....... Deviations from the requirement of homogeneity are often the focus of micro-scale studies in forested areas. Yet, to explain the wind climate in the relevant height range for turbines, it is necessary to also account for the length scales that are important parameters for the meso-scale flow. These length...

Intense mesoscale variability in the Sardinia Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Aniello; Borrione, Ines; Falchetti, Silvia; Knoll, Michaela; Fiekas, Heinz-Volker; Heywood, Karen; Oddo, Paolo; Onken, Reiner

2015-04-01

From the 6 to 25 June 2014, the REP14-MED sea trial was conducted by CMRE, supported by 20 partners from six different nations. The at-sea activities were carried out onboard the research vessels Alliance (NATO) and Planet (German Ministry of Defense), comprising a marine area of about 110 x 110 km2 to the west of the Sardinian coast. More than 300 CTD casts typically spaced at 10 km were collected; both ships continuously recorded vertical profiles of currents by means of their ADCPs, and a ScanFish® and a CTD chain were towed for almost three days by Alliance and Planet, respectively, following parallel routes. Twelve gliders from different manufacturers (Slocum, SeaGliderTM and SeaExplorer) were continuously sampling the study area following zonal tracks spaced at 10 km. In addition, six moorings, 17 surface drifters and one ARVOR float were deployed. From a first analysis of the observations, several mesoscale features were identified in the survey area, in particular: (i) a warm-core anticyclonic eddy in the southern part of the domain, about 50 km in diameter and with the strongest signal at about 50-m depth (ii) another warm-core anticyclonic eddy of comparable dimensions in the central part of the domain, but extending to greater depth than the former one, and (iii) a small (less than 15 km in diameter) cold-core cyclonic eddy of Winter Intermediate Water in the depth range between 170 m and 370 m. All three eddies showed intensified currents, up to 50 cm s-1. The huge high-resolution observational data set and the variety of observation techniques enabled the mesoscale features and their variability to be tracked for almost three weeks. In order to obtain a deeper understanding of the mesoscale dynamic behaviour and their interactions, assimilation studies with an ocean circulation model are underway.

Designing a Weather Station

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Harry T.

2012-01-01

The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

The Optimal Dispatch of a Power System Containing Virtual Power Plants under Fog and Haze Weather

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajing Gao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available With the growing influence of fog and haze (F-H weather and the rapid development of distributed energy resources (DERs and smart grids, the concept of the virtual power plant (VPP employed in this study would help to solve the dispatch problem caused by multiple DERs connected to the power grid. The effects of F-H weather on photovoltaic output forecast, load forecast and power system dispatch are discussed according to real case data. The wavelet neural network (WNN model was employed to predict photovoltaic output and load, considering F-H weather, based on the idea of “similar days of F-H”. The multi-objective optimal dispatch model of a power system adopted in this paper contains several VPPs and conventional power plants, under F-H weather, and the mixed integer linear programming (MILP and the Yalmip toolbox of MATLAB were adopted to solve the dispatch model. The analysis of the results from a case study proves the validity and feasibility of the model and the algorithms.

Mesoscale modeling: solving complex flows in biology and biotechnology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Zachary Grant; Mao, Wenbin; Alexeev, Alexander

2013-07-01

Fluids are involved in practically all physiological activities of living organisms. However, biological and biorelated flows are hard to analyze due to the inherent combination of interdependent effects and processes that occur on a multitude of spatial and temporal scales. Recent advances in mesoscale simulations enable researchers to tackle problems that are central for the understanding of such flows. Furthermore, computational modeling effectively facilitates the development of novel therapeutic approaches. Among other methods, dissipative particle dynamics and the lattice Boltzmann method have become increasingly popular during recent years due to their ability to solve a large variety of problems. In this review, we discuss recent applications of these mesoscale methods to several fluid-related problems in medicine, bioengineering, and biotechnology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating impacts of different longitudinal driver assistance systems on reducing multi-vehicle rear-end crashes during small-scale inclement weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Xing, Lu; Wang, Wei; Wang, Hao; Dong, Changyin; Liu, Shanwen

2017-10-01

Multi-vehicle rear-end (MVRE) crashes during small-scale inclement (SSI) weather cause high fatality rates on freeways, which cannot be solved by traditional speed limit strategies. This study aimed to reduce MVRE crash risks during SSI weather using different longitudinal driver assistance systems (LDAS). The impact factors on MVRE crashes during SSI weather were firstly analyzed. Then, four LDAS, including Forward collision warning (FCW), Autonomous emergency braking (AEB), Adaptive cruise control (ACC) and Cooperative ACC (CACC), were modeled based on a unified platform, the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). Simulation experiments were designed and a large number of simulations were then conducted to evaluate safety effects of different LDAS. Results indicate that the FCW and ACC system have poor performance on reducing MVRE crashes during SSI weather. The slight improvement of sight distance of FCW and the limitation of perception-reaction time of ACC lead the failure of avoiding MVRE crashes in most scenarios. The AEB system has the better effect due to automatic perception and reaction, as well as performing the full brake when encountering SSI weather. The CACC system has the best performance because wireless communication provides a larger sight distance and a shorter time delay at the sub-second level. Sensitivity analyses also indicated that the larger number of vehicles and speed changes after encountering SSI weather have negative impacts on safety performances. Results of this study provide useful information for accident prevention during SSI weather. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

COST ES0602: towards a European network on chemical weather forecasting and information systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Kukkonen

2009-04-01

Full Text Available The COST ES0602 action provides a forum for benchmarking approaches and practices in data exchange and multi-model capabilities for chemical weather forecasting and near real-time information services in Europe. The action includes approximately 30 participants from 19 countries, and its duration is from 2007 to 2011 (http://www.chemicalweather.eu/. Major efforts have been dedicated in other actions and projects to the development of infrastructures for data flow. We have therefore aimed for collaboration with ongoing actions towards developing near real-time exchange of input data for air quality forecasting. We have collected information on the operational air quality forecasting models on a regional and continental scale in a structured form, and inter-compared and evaluated the physical and chemical structure of these models. We have also constructed a European chemical weather forecasting portal that includes links to most of the available chemical weather forecasting systems in Europe. The collaboration also includes the examination of the case studies that have been organized within COST-728, in order to inter-compare and evaluate the models against experimental data. We have also constructed an operational model forecasting ensemble. Data from a representative set of regional background stations have been selected, and the operational forecasts for this set of sites will be inter-compared and evaluated. The Action has investigated, analysed and reviewed existing chemical weather information systems and services, and will provide recommendations on best practices concerning the presentation and dissemination of chemical weather information towards the public and decision makers.

A Novel Observation-Guided Approach for Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by the DOE ACME Model

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Z.; Ma, P. L.; Hardin, J. C.; Houze, R.

2017-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the largest type of convective storms that develop when convection aggregates and induces mesoscale circulation features. Over North America, MCSs contribute over 60% of the total warm-season precipitation and over half of the extreme daily precipitation in the central U.S. Our recent study (Feng et al. 2016) found that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in this region are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lived MCSs*. To date, global climate models typically do not run at a resolution high enough to explicitly simulate individual convective elements and may not have adequate process representations for MCSs, resulting in a large deficiency in projecting changes of the frequency of extreme precipitation events in future climate. In this study, we developed a novel observation-guided approach specifically designed to evaluate simulated MCSs in the Department of Energy's climate model, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME). The ACME model has advanced treatments for convection and subgrid variability and for this study is run at 25 km and 100 km grid spacings. We constructed a robust MCS database consisting of over 500 MCSs from 3 warm-season observations by applying a feature-tracking algorithm to 4-km resolution merged geostationary satellite and 3-D NEXRAD radar network data over the Continental US. This high-resolution MCS database is then down-sampled to the 25 and 100 km ACME grids to re-characterize key MCS properties. The feature-tracking algorithm is adapted with the adjusted characteristics to identify MCSs from ACME model simulations. We demonstrate that this new analysis framework is useful for evaluating ACME's warm-season precipitation statistics associated with MCSs, and provides insights into the model process representations related to extreme precipitation events for future improvement. *Feng, Z., L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze, C. D. Burleyson

Global Positioning System Energetic Particle Data: The Next Space Weather Data Revolution

Science.gov (United States)

Knipp, Delores J.; Giles, Barbara L.

2016-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has revolutionized the process of getting from point A to point Band so much more. A large fraction of the worlds population relies on GPS (and its counterparts from other nations) for precision timing, location, and navigation. Most GPS users are unaware that the spacecraft providing the signals they rely on are operating in a very harsh space environment the radiation belts where energetic particles trapped in Earths magnetic field dash about at nearly the speed of light. These subatomic particles relentlessly pummel GPS satellites. So by design, every GPS satellite and its sensors are radiation hardened. Each spacecraft carries particle detectors that provide health and status data to system operators. Although these data reveal much about the state of the space radiation environment, heretofore they have been available only to system operators and supporting scientists. Research scientists have long sought a policy shift to allow more general access. With the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan organized by the White House Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) a sample of these data have been made available to space weather researchers. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the National Center for Environmental Information released a months worth of GPS energetic particle data from an interval of heightened space weather activity in early 2014 with the hope of stimulating integration of these data sets into the research arena. Even before the public data release GPS support scientists from LANL showed the extraordinary promise of these data.

Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

2015-11-15

Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A short-range multi-model ensemble weather prediction system for South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, S

2010-09-01

Full Text Available prediction system (EPS) at the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are examined. The ensemble consists of different forecasts from the 12-km LAM of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) covering the South...

Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

2005-01-01

In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

Assessment of MARMOT. A Mesoscale Fuel Performance Code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonks, M. R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schwen, D. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Zhang, Y. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Chakraborty, P. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bai, X. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fromm, B. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Yu, J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Teague, M. C. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Andersson, D. A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-04-01

MARMOT is the mesoscale fuel performance code under development as part of the US DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program. In this report, we provide a high level summary of MARMOT, its capabilities, and its current state of validation. The purpose of MARMOT is to predict the coevolution of microstructure and material properties of nuclear fuel and cladding. It accomplished this using the phase field method coupled to solid mechanics and heat conduction. MARMOT is based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), and much of its basic capability in the areas of the phase field method, mechanics, and heat conduction come directly from MOOSE modules. However, additional capability specific to fuel and cladding is available in MARMOT. While some validation of MARMOT has been completed in the areas of fission gas behavior and grain growth, much more validation needs to be conducted. However, new mesoscale data needs to be obtained in order to complete this validation.

Building resilience of the Global Positioning System to space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Genene; Kunches, Joseph

2011-12-01

Almost every aspect of the global economy now depends on GPS. Worldwide, nations are working to create a robust Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which will provide global positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services for applications such as aviation, electric power distribution, financial exchange, maritime navigation, and emergency management. The U.S. government is examining the vulnerabilities of GPS, and it is well known that space weather events, such as geomagnetic storms, contribute to errors in single-frequency GPS and are a significant factor for differential GPS. The GPS industry has lately begun to recognize that total electron content (TEC) signal delays, ionospheric scintillation, and solar radio bursts can also interfere with daily operations and that these threats grow with the approach of the next solar maximum, expected to occur in 2013. The key challenges raised by these circumstances are, first, to better understand the vulnerability of GPS technologies and services to space weather and, second, to develop policies that will build resilience and mitigate risk.

Preliminary results of an attempt to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassardo, C.; Loglisci, N.

2005-01-01

In the recent years, there has been a significant growth in the recognition of the soil moisture importance in large-scale hydrology and climate modelling. Soil moisture is a lower boundary condition, which rules the partitioning of energy in terms of sensible and latent heat flux. Wrong estimations of soil moisture lead to wrong simulation of the surface layer evolution and hence precipitations and cloud cover forecasts could be consequently affected. This is true for large scale medium-range weather forecasts as well as for local-scale short range weather forecasts, particularly in those situations in which local convection is well developed. Unfortunately; despite the importance of this physical parameter there are only few soil moisture data sets sparse in time and in space around in the world. Due to this scarcity of soil moisture observations, we developed an alternative method to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models. In this paper are presented the preliminary results of an attempt to verify soil moisture fields predicted by a mesoscale model. The data for the comparison were provided by the simulations of the diagnostic land surface scheme LSPM (Land Surface Process Model), widely used at the Piedmont Regional Weather Service for agro-meteorological purposes. To this end, LSPM was initialized and driven by Synop observations, while the surface (vegetation and soil) parameter values were initialized by ECOCLIMAP global dataset at 1km 2 resolution

Weather forecast

CERN Document Server

Courtier, P

1994-02-07

Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

Walker Branch Throughfall Displacement Experiment Data Report: Site Characterization, System Performance, Weather, Species Composition, and Growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanson, P.J.

2001-09-04

This numeric data package provides data sets, and accompanying documentation, on site characterization, system performance, weather, species composition, and growth for the Throughfall Displacement Experiment, which was established in the Walker Branch Watershed of East Tennessee to provide data on the responses of forests to altered precipitation regimes. The specific data sets include soil water content and potential, coarse fraction of the soil profile, litter layer temperature, soil temperature, monthly weather, daily weather, hourly weather, species composition of trees and saplings, mature tree and sapling annual growth, and relative leaf area index. Fortran and SAS{trademark} access codes are provided to read the ASCII data files. The data files and this documentation are available without charge on a variety of media and via the Internet from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC).

Extending atomistic scale chemistry to mesoscale model of condensed-phase deflagration

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, Kaushik; Chaudhuri, Santanu

2017-01-01

Predictive simulations connecting chemistry that follow the shock or thermal initiation of energetic materials to subsequent deflagration or detonation events is currently outside the realm of possibilities. Molecular dynamics and first-principles based dynamics have made progress in understanding reactions in picosecond to nanosecond time scale. Results from thermal ignition of different phases of RDX show a complex reaction network and emergence of a deterministic behavior for critical temperature before ignition and hot spot growth rates. The kinetics observed is dependent on the hot spot temperature, system size and thermal conductivity. For cases where ignition is observed, the incubation period is dominated by intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen transfer reactions. The gradual temperature and pressure increase in the incubation period is accompanied by accumulation of heavier polyradicals. The challenge of connecting such chemistry in mesoscale simulations remain in reducing the complexity of chemistry. The hot spot growth kinetics in RDX grains and interfaces is an important challenge for reactive simulations aiming to fill in the gaps in our knowledge in the nanoseconds to microseconds time scale. The results discussed indicate that the mesoscale chemistry may include large polyradical molecules in dense reactive mix reaching an instability point at certain temperatures and pressures.

Boundary layer height determination under summertime anticyclonic weather conditions over the coastal area of Rijeka, Croatia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nitis, T.; Moussiopoulos, N. [Aristotle Univ. Thessaloniki (Greece). Lab. of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering; Klaic, Z.B. [Univ. of Zagreb (Croatia). Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical Inst., Faculty of Science; Kitsiou, D. [Univ. of the Aegean, Mytilene (Greece). Dept. of Marine Sciences

2004-07-01

The atmospheric boundary layer height is a fundamental parameter characterising the structure of the lower troposphere. The determination of this parameter is important in applications that range from meteorological modelling and forecasting to dispersion problems of atmospheric pollutants. Since substances emitted into the atmospheric boundary layer are dispersed horizontally and vertically through the action of turbulence, they are well-mixed over this layer that is widely known as ''mixing layer''. There are two basic approaches for the practical estimation of this height; the first approach suggests profile measurements, either in-situ or by remote sounding (sodar, clear-air radar, lidar) and the second one, the use of models with only a few measured parameters as input. As far as the second approach is concerned, the majority of the models use relatively crude estimates of the roughness length that is often based on constant values for land cover. Consequently, the model results are not quite accurate. The present work aims firstly to evaluate the effect of alternative calculations of the roughness length on the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MEMO) performance, based on the use of satellite data, and secondly, to estimate the mixing layer height and analyze its variability in relation to underlying topography and land use. Rijeka, a region with complex topography and several islands in its surroundings, offers the opportunity to examine the above mentioned relationships. The non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MEMO was applied under summertime anticyclonic weather conditions during two multi-day periods characterised by stagnant meteorological conditions. The results proved MEMO capable of simulating mesoscale wind flow reasonably well, however, the use of AVHRR satellite data for calculating the roughness length based on the calculation of the NDVI parameter, optimised the model performance and resulted to a more accurate determination of

Relationships between CO2, thermodynamic limits on silicate weathering, and the strength of the silicate weathering feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Winnick, Matthew J.; Maher, Kate

2018-03-01

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic limitations on chemical weathering rates exert a first-order control on riverine solute fluxes and by extension, global chemical weathering rates. As such, these limitations may play a prominent role in the regulation of carbon dioxide levels (pCO2) over geologic timescales by constraining the maximum global weathering flux. In this study, we develop a theoretical scaling relationship between equilibrium solute concentrations and pCO2 based on equilibrium constants and reaction stoichiometry relating primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. We test this theoretical scaling relationship against reactive transport simulations of chemical weathering profiles under open- and closed-system conditions, representing partially and fully water-saturated regolith, respectively. Under open-system conditions, equilibrium bicarbonate concentrations vary as a power-law function of pCO2 (y = kxn) where n is dependent on reaction stoichiometry and k is dependent on both reaction stoichiometry and the equilibrium constant. Under closed-system conditions, bicarbonate concentrations vary linearly with pCO2 at low values and approach open-system scaling at high pCO2. To describe the potential role of thermodynamic limitations in the global silicate weathering feedback, we develop a new mathematical framework to assess weathering feedback strength in terms of both (1) steady-state atmospheric pCO2 concentrations, and (2) susceptibility to secular changes in degassing rates and transient carbon cycle perturbations, which we term 1st and 2nd order feedback strength, respectively. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the effects of vascular land plant evolution on feedback strength, the potential role of vegetation in controlling modern solute fluxes, and the application of these frameworks to a more complete functional description of the silicate weathering feedback. Most notably, the dependence

A Distributed Hydrological model Forced by DIMP2 Data and the WRF Mesoscale model

Science.gov (United States)

Wayand, N. E.

2010-12-01

Forecasted warming over the next century will drastically reduce seasonal snowpack that provides 40% of the world’s drinking water. With increased climate warming, droughts may occur more frequently, which will increase society’s reliance on this same summer snowpack as a water supply. This study aims to reduce driving data errors that lead to poor simulations of snow ablation and accumulation, and streamflow. Results from the Distributed Hydrological Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (DMIP2) project using the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) highlighted the critical need for accurate driving data that distributed models require. Currently, the meteorological driving data for distributed hydrological models commonly rely on interpolation techniques between a network of observational stations, as well as historical monthly means. This method is limited by two significant issues: snowpack is stored at high elevations, where interpolation techniques perform poorly due to sparse observations, and historic climatological means may be unsuitable in a changing climate. Mesoscale models may provide a physically-based approach to supplement surface observations over high-elevation terrain. Initial results have shown that while temperature lapse rates are well represented by multiple mesoscale models, significant precipitation biases are dependent on the particular model microphysics. We evaluate multiple methods of downscaling surface variables from the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that are then used to drive DHSVM over the North Fork American River basin in California. A comparison between each downscaled driving data set and paired DHSVM results to observations will determine how much improvement in simulated streamflow and snowpack are gained at the expense of each additional degree of downscaling. Our results from DMIP2 will be used as a benchmark for the best available DHSVM run using all available observational data. The

The South China Sea Mesoscale Eddy Experiment (S-MEE) and Its Primary Findings

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Z.; Tian, J.; Zhao, W.; Qiu, B.

2016-02-01

South China Sea (SCS), the largest marginal sea in the northwestern Pacific, have strong eddy activities as revealed by both satellite and in situ observations. The 3D structures of the SCS mesoscale eddies and their lifecycles, including the generation and dissipation processes, are, however, still not well understood at present because of the lack of well-designed field observations. In order to address the above two scientific issues (3D structure and lifecycle of SCS mesoscale eddies), the SCS Mesoscale Eddy Experiment (S-MEE for short) was designed and conducted in the period from October 2013 to June 2014. As part of S-MEE, two bottom-anchored subsurface mooring arrays with one consisting of 10 moorings and the other 7 moorings, were deployed along the historical pathway of the mesoscale eddies in the northern SCS. All the moorings were equipped with ADCPs, RCMs, CTDs and temperature chains to make continues measurements of horizontal current velocity and temperature/salinity in the whole water column. During the S-MEE, a total of 5 distinct mesoscale eddies were observed to cross the mooring arrays, among which one anticyclonic and cyclonic eddy pair was fully captured by the mooring arrays. In addition to moored observations, we also conducted two transects across the center of the anticyclonic eddy and made high-resolution hydrographic and turbulent mixing measurements. Based on the data collected by the S-MEE and concurrent satellite-derived observations, we constructed the full-depth 3D structure of the eddy pair and analyzed its generation and dissipation mechanisms. We found that the eddies extend from the surface to the sea bottom and display prominent tilted structures in the vertical. By conducting an eddy energy budget analysis, we further identified that generation of submesoscale motions constitutes the dominant mechanism for the oceanic eddy dissipation.

Observations of ionospheric electric fields above atmospheric weather systems

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, W. M.; Aggson, T. L.; Rodgers, E. B.; Hanson, W. B.

1994-01-01

We report on the observations of a number of quasi-dc electric field events associated with large-scale atmospheric weather formations. The observations were made by the electric field experiment onboard the San Marco D satellite, operational in an equatorial orbit from May to December 1988. Several theoretical studies suggest that electric fields generated by thunderstorms are present at high altitudes in the ionosphere. In spite of such favorable predictions, weather-related events are not often observed since they are relatively weak. We shall report here on a set of likely E field candidates for atmospheric-ionospheric causality, these being observed over the Indonesian Basin, northern South America, and the west coast of Africa; all known sites of atmospheric activity. As we shall demonstrate, individual events often be traced to specific active weather features. For example, a number of events were associated with spacecraft passages near Hurricane Joan in mid-October 1988. As a statistical set, the events appear to coincide with the most active regions of atmospheric weather.

The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

The diffusion of radioactive gases in the meso-scale (20 km-400 km)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wippermann, F.

1974-01-01

The term ''Mesoscale'' refers to distances between 20 km and 400 km from the source; in defining this range, the structure of atmospheric turbulence is taken into account. To arrive at an evaluation of diffusion in the mesoscale, quantitative methods from the microscale (source distance 400 km) are extrapolated into the mesoscale. In the first case a table is given to read off the minimum factor by which the concentration is reduced in the mesoscale as the source distance increases to obtain the diffusion for the worst possible case, the existence of a mixing-layer topped by a temperature inversion, was assumed. For this it was essential, first of all, to determine the source distance xsub(D) beyond which the diffusing gases are completely mixed within the mixing-layer of thickness D. To make allowance for all possible thicknesses of this mixing-layer, a measurement carried out at ground level at only 10 km from the source can be used to calculate the correct concentrations in the mixing-layer; the dilution factors will then be related to this value. Possible ways of an improved incorporation of certain factors in the diffusion estimate, such as the topography of the earth's surface, the roughness of terrain, the vertical profiles of wind and exchange coefficients and the effects of non-stability are given in the last section

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

Science.gov (United States)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

2016-12-01

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

Application of a mesoscale forecasting model (NMM) coupled to the CALMET to develop forecast meteorology to use with the CALPUFF air dispersion model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radonjic, Z.; Telenta, B.; Kirklady, J.; Chambers, D.; Kleb, H.

2006-01-01

An air quality assessment was undertaken as part of the Environmental Assessment for the Port Hope Area Initiative. The assessment predicted potential effects associated with the remediation efforts for historic low-level radioactive wastes and construction of Long-Term Waste Management Facilities (LTWMFs) for both the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects. A necessary element of air dispersion modelling is the development of suitable meteorological data. For the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects, a meteorological station was installed in close proximity to the location of the recommended LTWMF in Port Hope. The recommended location for the Port Granby LTWMF is approximately 10 km west of the Port Hope LTWMF. Concerns were raised regarding the applicability of data collected for the Port Hope meteorological station to the Port Granby Site. To address this concern, a new method for processing meteorological data, which coupled mesoscale meteorological forecasting data the U.S. EPA CALMET meteorological data processor, was applied. This methodology is possible because a new and advanced mesoscale forecasting modelling system enables extensive numerical calculations on personal computers. As a result of this advancement, mesoscale forecasting systems can now be coupled with the CALMET meteorological data processor and the CALPUFF air dispersion modelling system to facilitate wind field estimations and air dispersion analysis. (author)

Weather Information Services supporting Civilian UAS Operations, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We build a system that supports the weather information needs of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) planning to fly in the National Airspace System (NAS). This weather...

WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Botos Horia Mircea

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

Science.gov (United States)

Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

2018-01-01

Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts

Proceedings of the COST 75 final seminar on advanced weather radar systems; Beitraege des Instituts zum COST 75 final seminar on advanced weather radar systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baumann, R.; Flender, F.; Hagen, M.; Hoeller, H.; Keil, C.; Meischner, P.

1998-07-01

Across Europe more than 110 weather radars are in operation. More than 60 of them are Doppler radars and this number is increasing steadily. Doppler systems are becoming an operational standard. Most systems operate in C-band, with the exception of the Spanish radar network which is composed of S-band Doppler radars. Radar product composites are available for Scandinavia and Central Europe. National networks exist for the UK, France and Spain. Europe further is fortunate to have 8 polarimetric Doppler radars used mainly for research. In Italy some of those systems are used also for operational nowcasting applications for dedicated customers. The Chilbolton multiparameter Doppler radar operates at S-band. (orig.)

Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Science.gov (United States)

Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.

2002-02-01

The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

The variation of molybdenum isotopes within the weathering system of the black shales

Science.gov (United States)

Jianming, Z.

2016-12-01

Jian-Ming Zhu 1,2, De-Can Tan 2, Liang Liang 2, Wang Jing21 State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China 2 State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guiyang, 550002, China Molybdenum (Mo) stable isotopes have been developed as a tracer to indicate the evolution of the atmospheric and oceanic oxygenation related with continent weathering, and to reveal the extent of ancient oceanic euxinia. Molybdenum isotopic variation within the weathering system of basalts has been studied, and was presented the whole trend with heavier isotopes preferentially removed during weathering processes. However, there are few researches to study the variation of Mo isotopes during black shale weathering, especiall on the behavoir of Mo isotopes within the perfect shales' profiles. Here, the weathering profiles of Mo and selenium(Se)-rich carbonaceous rocks in Enshi southwest Hubei Province were selected. The Mo isotopes was measured on Nu Plasma II's MC-ICP-MS using 97Mo-100Mo double spike, and δ98/95Mo was reported relative to NIST 3134. A comprehensive set of Mo isotopic composition and concentration data from the unweathered, weakly and intensely weathered rocks were collected. The δ98/95Mo in fresh shales (220±248 mg/kg Mo, 1SD, n=41) from Shadi and Yutangba drill cores varies from 0.41‰ to 0.99‰ with an average of 0.67±0.16‰, while the strongly weathered shales (19.9±5.8 mg/kg Mo, 1SD, n=5) from Shadi profiles are isotopically heavier with average δ98/95Mo values of 1.03±0.10‰ (1SD, n=5). The Locally altered shales exposed in a quarry at Yutangba are highly enriched in Mo, varing from 31 to 2377 mg/kg with an average of 428 ±605mg/kg (1SD, n=24), approximately 2 times greater than that in fresh shales samples. These rocks are presented a significant variation in δ98/95Mo values varing from -0.24 ‰ to -3.99 ‰ with

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Matrix effects in applying mono- and polyclonal ELISA systems to the analysis of weathered oils in contaminated soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, S J T; Farmer, J G; Knight, D M; Young, P J

2002-01-01

Commercial mono- and polyclonal enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) systems were applied to the on-site analysis of weathered hydrocarbon-contaminated soils at a former integrated steelworks. Comparisons were made between concentrations of solvent extractable matter (SEM) determined gravimetrically by Soxhlet (dichloromethane) extraction and those estimated immunologically by ELISA determination over a concentration range of 2000-330,000 mg SEM/kg soil dry weight. Both ELISA systems tinder-reported for the more weathered soil samples. Results suggest this is due to matrix effects in the sample rather than any inherent bias in the ELISA systems and it is concluded that, for weathered hydrocarbons typical of steelworks and coke production sites, the use of ELISA requires careful consideration as a field technique. Consideration of the target analyte relative to the composition of the hydrocarbon waste encountered appears critical.

Paired-Associate and Feedback-Based Weather Prediction Tasks Support Multiple Category Learning Systems

OpenAIRE

Li, Kaiyun; Fu, Qiufang; Sun, Xunwei; Zhou, Xiaoyan; Fu, Xiaolan

2016-01-01

It remains unclear whether probabilistic category learning in the feedback-based weather prediction task (FB-WPT) can be mediated by a non-declarative or procedural learning system. To address this issue, we compared the effects of training time and verbal working memory, which influence the declarative learning system but not the non-declarative learning system, in the FB and paired-associate (PA) WPTs, as the PA task recruits a declarative learning system. The results of Experiment 1 showed...

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

Science.gov (United States)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

A three-dimensional meso-scale modeling for helium bubble growth in metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzudo, T.; Kaburaki, H.; Wakai, E.

2007-01-01

A three-dimensional meso-scale computer model using a Monte-Carlo simulation method has been proposed to simulate the helium bubble growth in metals. The primary merit of this model is that it enables the visual comparison between the microstructure observed by the TEM imaging and those by calculations. The modeling is so simple that one can control easily the calculation by tuning parameters. The simulation results are confirmed by the ideal gas law and the capillary relation. helium bubble growth, meso-scale modeling, Monte-Carlo simulation, the ideal gas law and the capillary relation. (authors)

Modeling rock weathering in small watersheds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacheco, F.A.L.; van der Weijden, C.H.

2014-01-01

Many mountainous watersheds are conceived as aquifer media where multiple groundwater flow systems have developed (Tóth, 1963), and as bimodal landscapes where differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock has occurred (Wahrhaftig, 1965). The results of a weathering algorithm (Pacheco and

Mesoscale eddies in the Subantarctic Front-Southwest Atlantic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo D. Glorioso

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Satellite and ship observations in the southern southwest Atlantic (SSWA reveal an intense eddy field and highlight the potential for using continuous real-time satellite altimetry to detect and monitor mesoscale phenomena with a view to understanding the regional circulation. The examples presented suggest that mesoscale eddies are a dominant feature of the circulation and play a fundamental role in the transport of properties along and across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC. The main ocean current in the SSWA, the Falkland-Malvinas Current (FMC, exhibits numerous embedded eddies south of 50°S which may contribute to the patchiness, transport and mixing of passive scalars by this strong, turbulent current. Large eddies associated with meanders are observed in the ACC fronts, some of them remaining stationary for long periods. Two particular cases are examined using a satellite altimeter in combination with in situ observations, suggesting that cross-frontal eddy transport and strong meandering occur where the ACC flow intensifies along the sub-Antarctic Front (SAF and the Southern ACC Front (SACCF.

Activities of NICT space weather project

Science.gov (United States)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Geostatistical Analysis of Mesoscale Spatial Variability and Error in SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua Global Ocean Color Data

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, David M.; Doney, Scott C.; Oestreich, William K.; Tullo, Alisdair W.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale (10-300 km, weeks to months) physical variability strongly modulates the structure and dynamics of planktonic marine ecosystems via both turbulent advection and environmental impacts upon biological rates. Using structure function analysis (geostatistics), we quantify the mesoscale biological signals within global 13 year SeaWiFS (1998-2010) and 8 year MODIS/Aqua (2003-2010) chlorophyll a ocean color data (Level-3, 9 km resolution). We present geographical distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of key geostatistical parameters: unresolved variability or noise, resolved variability, and spatial range. Resolved variability is nearly identical for both instruments, indicating that geostatistical techniques isolate a robust measure of biophysical mesoscale variability largely independent of measurement platform. In contrast, unresolved variability in MODIS/Aqua is substantially lower than in SeaWiFS, especially in oligotrophic waters where previous analysis identified a problem for the SeaWiFS instrument likely due to sensor noise characteristics. Both records exhibit a statistically significant relationship between resolved mesoscale variability and the low-pass filtered chlorophyll field horizontal gradient magnitude, consistent with physical stirring acting on large-scale gradient as an important factor supporting observed mesoscale variability. Comparable horizontal length scales for variability are found from tracer-based scaling arguments and geostatistical decorrelation. Regional variations between these length scales may reflect scale dependence of biological mechanisms that also create variability directly at the mesoscale, for example, enhanced net phytoplankton growth in coastal and frontal upwelling and convective mixing regions. Global estimates of mesoscale biophysical variability provide an improved basis for evaluating higher resolution, coupled ecosystem-ocean general circulation models, and data assimilation.

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Science.gov (United States)

Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

2015-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Identification of Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) phenomenon with image of Himawari 8 Satellite and WRF ARW Model on Bangka Island (Case Study: 7-8 February 2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Rinaldy, Nanda; Saragih, Immanuel J. A.; Wandala Putra, Agie; Redha Nugraheni, Imma; Wijaya Yonas, Banu

2017-12-01

Based on monitoring on 7th and 8th February 2016 there has been a flood that occurred due to heavy rainfall in a long time in some areas of Bangka Island. Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) is one type of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Previous research on MCC mentions that MCC can cause heavy rain for a long time. This study aims to identify the phenomenon of MCC in Bangka Island both in the satellite imagery and the output of the model. In addition, this study was also conducted to determine the effect of MCC on the weather conditions in Bangka Island. The study area in this research is Bangka Island with Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station as the centre of research. The data used in this research are FNL (Final Analysis) data from http://rda.ucar.edu/, Satellite Image of Himawari-8 IR1 Channel from BMKG, and meteorological observation data (synoptic and radiosonde) from Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station. The FNL data is simulated using the WRF-ARW model, verified using observation data and then visualized using GrADS. The results of the analysis of Himawari-8 satellite image data showed that two MCCs occurred on 7th and 8th February 2016 on Bangka Island and the MCC was nocturnal, which appeared at night which then continued until extinction in the morning the next day. In a peak cloud temperature review with the coordinates of Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station (-2,163 N 106,137 E) when 1st MCC and 2nd MCC events ranged from -60°C to -80°C. The result of WRF-ARW model output analysis shows that MCC area has high humidity value and positive vertical velocity value which indicates the potential of heavy rain for a long time.

An analytical coarse-graining method which preserves the free energy, structural correlations, and thermodynamic state of polymer melts from the atomistic to the mesoscale.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarty, J; Clark, A J; Copperman, J; Guenza, M G

2014-05-28

Structural and thermodynamic consistency of coarse-graining models across multiple length scales is essential for the predictive role of multi-scale modeling and molecular dynamic simulations that use mesoscale descriptions. Our approach is a coarse-grained model based on integral equation theory, which can represent polymer chains at variable levels of chemical details. The model is analytical and depends on molecular and thermodynamic parameters of the system under study, as well as on the direct correlation function in the k → 0 limit, c0. A numerical solution to the PRISM integral equations is used to determine c0, by adjusting the value of the effective hard sphere diameter, dHS, to agree with the predicted equation of state. This single quantity parameterizes the coarse-grained potential, which is used to perform mesoscale simulations that are directly compared with atomistic-level simulations of the same system. We test our coarse-graining formalism by comparing structural correlations, isothermal compressibility, equation of state, Helmholtz and Gibbs free energies, and potential energy and entropy using both united atom and coarse-grained descriptions. We find quantitative agreement between the analytical formalism for the thermodynamic properties, and the results of Molecular Dynamics simulations, independent of the chosen level of representation. In the mesoscale description, the potential energy of the soft-particle interaction becomes a free energy in the coarse-grained coordinates which preserves the excess free energy from an ideal gas across all levels of description. The structural consistency between the united-atom and mesoscale descriptions means the relative entropy between descriptions has been minimized without any variational optimization parameters. The approach is general and applicable to any polymeric system in different thermodynamic conditions.

Convection Weather Detection by General Aviation Pilots with Convectional and Data-Linked Graphical Weather Information Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, James P.; Latorella, Kara A.

2001-01-01

This study compares how well general aviation (GA) pilots detect convective weather in flight with different weather information sources. A flight test was conducted in which GA pilot test subjects were given different in-flight weather information cues and flown toward convective weather of moderate or greater intensity. The test subjects were not actually flying the aircraft, but were given pilot tasks representative of the workload and position awareness requirements of the en route portion of a cross country GA flight. On each flight, one test subject received weather cues typical of a flight in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), another received cues typical of flight in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and a third received cues typical of flight in IMC but augmented with a graphical weather information system (GWIS). The GWIS provided the subject with near real time data-linked weather products, including a weather radar mosaic superimposed on a moving map with a symbol depicting the aircraft's present position and direction of track. At several points during each flight, the test subjects completed short questionnaires which included items addressing their weather situation awareness and flight decisions. In particular, test subjects were asked to identify the location of the nearest convective cells. After the point of nearest approach to convective weather, the test subjects were asked to draw the location of convective weather on an aeronautical chart, along with the aircraft's present position. This paper reports preliminary results on how accurately test subjects provided with these different weather sources could identify the nearest cell of moderate or greater intensity along their route of flight. Additional flight tests are currently being conducted to complete the data set.

Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1997-12-31

The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies: Dynamic, College-Level Geoscience Courses Emphasizing Current Earth System Data

Science.gov (United States)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; Kiley, T. P.; Ruwe, E. E.

2008-12-01

AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies are introductory college-level courses developed by the American Meteorological Society, with NSF and NOAA support, for local offering at undergraduate institutions nationwide. The courses place students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate the atmosphere and world ocean using real-world and real-time environmental data. Over 360 colleges throughout the United States have offered these courses in course environments ranging from traditional lecture/laboratory to completely online. AMS Diversity Projects aim to increase undergraduate student access to the geosciences through implementation of the courses at minority-serving institutions and training programs for MSI faculty. The AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies course packages consist of a hard-cover, 15-chapter textbook, Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities, and course website containing weekly current weather and ocean investigations. Course instructors receive access to a faculty website and CD containing answer keys and course management system-compatible files, which allow full integration to a college's e-learning environment. The unique aspect of the courses is the focus on current Earth system data through weekly Current Weather Studies and Current Ocean Studies investigations written in real time and posted to the course website, as well as weekly news files and a daily weather summary for AMS Weather Studies. Students therefore study meteorology or oceanography as it happens, which creates a dynamic learning environment where student relate their experiences and observations to the course, and actively discuss the science with their instructor and classmates. With NSF support, AMS has held expenses-paid course implementation workshops for minority-serving institution faculty planning to offer AMS Weather Studies or AMS Ocean Studies. From May 2002-2007, AMS conducted week-long weather workshops

Weather Support for the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Competitions (referred to as OPSC hereafter were held at Qingdao during August 9–23 and September 7–13 2008, respectively. The Qingdao Meteorological Bureau was the official provider of weather support for the OPSC. Three-dimensional real-time information with high spatial-temporal resolution was obtained by the comprehensive observation system during the OPSC, which included weather radars, wind profile radars, buoys, automated weather stations, and other conventional observations. The refined forecasting system based on MM5, WRF, and statistical modules provided point-specific hourly wind forecasts for the five venues, and the severe weather monitoring and forecasting system was used in short-term forecasts and nowcasts for rainstorms, gales, and hailstones. Moreover, latest forecasting products, warnings, and weather information were communicated conveniently and timely through a synthetic, speedy, and digitalized network system to different customers. Daily weather information briefings, notice boards, websites, and community short messages were the main approaches for regatta organizers, athletes, and coaches to receive weather service products at 8:00 PM of each day and whenever new updates were available. During the period of OPSC, almost one hundred people were involved in the weather service with innovative service concept, and the weather support was found to be successful and helpful to the OPSC.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

Science.gov (United States)

Field, R. D.

2015-12-01

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

Cockpit weather graphics using mobile satellite communications

Science.gov (United States)

Seth, Shashi

1993-01-01

Many new companies are pushing state-of-the-art technology to bring a revolution in the cockpits of General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The vision, according to Dr. Bruce Holmes - the Assistant Director for Aeronautics at National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center, is to provide such an advanced flight control system that the motor and cognitive skills you use to drive a car would be very similar to the ones you would use to fly an airplane. We at ViGYAN, Inc., are currently developing a system called the Pilot Weather Advisor (PWxA), which would be a part of such an advanced technology flight management system. The PWxA provides graphical depictions of weather information in the cockpit of aircraft in near real-time, through the use of broadcast satellite communications. The purpose of this system is to improve the safety and utility of GA aircraft operations. Considerable effort is being extended for research in the design of graphical weather systems, notably the works of Scanlon and Dash. The concept of providing pilots with graphical depictions of weather conditions, overlaid on geographical and navigational maps, is extremely powerful.

Combating bad weather part I rain removal from video

CERN Document Server

Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

2015-01-01

Current vision systems are designed to perform in normal weather condition. However, no one can escape from severe weather conditions. Bad weather reduces scene contrast and visibility, which results in degradation in the performance of various computer vision algorithms such as object tracking, segmentation and recognition. Thus, current vision systems must include some mechanisms that enable them to perform up to the mark in bad weather conditions such as rain and fog. Rain causes the spatial and temporal intensity variations in images or video frames. These intensity changes are due to the

Rapid weather information dissemination in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Martsolf, J. D.; Heinemann, P. H.; Gerber, J. F.; Crosby, F. L.; Smith, D. L.

1984-01-01

The development of the Florida Agricultural Services and Technology (FAST) plan to provide ports for users to call for weather information is described. FAST is based on the Satellite Frost Forecast System, which makes a broad base of weather data available to its users. The methods used for acquisition and dissemination of data from various networks under the FAST plan are examined. The system provides color coded IR or thermal maps, precipitation maps, and textural forecast information. A diagram of the system is provided.

Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

2014-12-01

The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

Mesoscale Eddies in the Solomon Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Hristova, H. G.; Kessler, W. S.; McWilliams, J. C.; Molemaker, M. J.

2011-12-01

Water mass transformation in the strong equatorward flows through the Solomon Sea influences the properties of the Equatorial Undercurrent and subsequent cold tongue upwelling. High eddy activity in the interior Solomon Sea seen in altimetric sea surface height (SSH) and in several models may provide a mechanism for these transformations. We investigate these effects using a mesoscale (4-km resolution) sigma-coordinate (ROMS) model of the Solomon Sea nested in a basin solution, forced by a repeating seasonal cycle, and evaluated against observational data. The model generates a vigorous upper layer eddy field; some of these are apparently shed as the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent threads through the complex topography of the region, others are independent of the strong western boundary current. We diagnose the scales and vertical structure of the eddies in different parts of the Solomon Sea to illuminate their generation processes and propagation characteristics, and compare these to observed eddy statistics. Hypotheses tested are that the Solomon Sea mesoscale eddies are generated locally by baroclinic instability, that the eddies are shed as the South Equatorial Current passes around and through the Solomon Island chain, that eddies are generated by the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent, or that eddies occurring outside of the Solomon Sea propagate into the Solomon Sea. These different mechanisms have different implications for the resulting mixing and property fluxes. They also provide different interpretations for SSH signals observed from satellites (e.g., that will be observed by the upcoming SWOT satellite).

Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

2011-01-01

The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers

A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

2003-01-01

There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

Using SST and land cover data from EO Missions for improved mesoscale modelling of the coastal zone

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna; Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume

was to evaluate the uncertainty of the modelled wind in the coastal zone and further improve it. Moreover LIDAR measurements were used to evaluate the wind speed retrieval from high resolution SAR systems (Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X). The WRF model used a high-resolution satellite SST reanalysis product from...... be implemented in the meso-scale model to better represent the actual conditions in the study area. Such improvements are expected to strengthen the model’s ability to represent land- sea and air-sea interactions, the atmospheric stability and the local topographic features that partly affect the coastal zone......Existing wind measurements in near-shore and offshore areas are sparse and scarce, therefore simulations from state-of-the-art meso-scale models are used for wind resource predictions. In coastal and near-shore areas, models are inaccurate and uncertain, mainly because of numerical approximations...

Role of mesoscale eddies in the global ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zouhair, Lachkar

2007-02-01

Mesoscale eddies play a fundamental role in ocean dynamics particularly in the Southern Ocean. Global-scale tracer simulations are typically made at coarse resolution without explicitly modeling eddies. Here we ask what role do eddies play in ocean uptake, storage, and meridional transport of anthropogenic CO 2 , CFC-11 and bomb Δ 14 C. We made global anthropogenic transient tracer simulations in coarse-resolution, ORCA2, and eddy-permitting, ORCA05 and ORCA025, versions of the ocean modelling system NEMO. We focus on the Southern Ocean where tracer air-sea fluxes are largest. Eddies have little effect on bomb Δ 14 C uptake and storage. Yet for CFC-11 and anthropogenic CO 2 , increased eddy activity reduces southern extra-tropical uptake by 28% and 25% respectively, thereby providing better agreement with observations. It is shown that the discrepancies in the equilibration times between the three tracers determine their respective sensitivities to the model horizontal resolution. Applying Gent and McWilliams (1990) (GM) parameterization of eddies in the non-eddying version of the model does improve results, but not enough. An in-depth investigation of the mechanisms by which eddies affect the uptake of the transient tracers shows that including mesoscale eddies leads to an overall reduction in the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) ventilation, and modifies substantially the spatial distribution of their source regions. This investigation reveals also that the GM parameterization still overestimates the ventilation and the subduction of AAIW in the Indian Ocean where the simulated mixed layer is particularly deep during the winter. This work suggests that most current coarse-resolution models may overestimate the ventilation of AAIW in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. This study shows also that the use of the GM parameterization may be of limited utility where mixed layer is relatively deep and confirms the general need for a more adequate

Numerical Weather Prediction Models on Linux Boxes as tools in meteorological education in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Gyongyosi, A. Z.; Andre, K.; Salavec, P.; Horanyi, A.; Szepszo, G.; Mille, M.; Tasnadi, P.; Weidiger, T.

2012-04-01

. Numerical modeling became a common tool in the daily practice of weather experts forecasters due to the i) increasing user demands for weather data by the costumers, ii) the growth in computer resources, iii) numerical weather prediction systems available for integration on affordable, off the shelf computers and iv) available input data (from ECMWF or NCEP) for model integrations. Beside learning the theoretical basis, since the last year. Students in their MSc or BSc Thesis Research or in Student's Research ProjectsStudent's Research Projects h have the opportunity to run numerical models and to analyze the outputs for different purposes including wind energy estimation, simulation of the dynamics of a polar low, and subtropical cyclones, analysis of the isentropic potential vorticity field, examination of coupled atmospheric dispersion models, etc. A special course in the application of numerical modeling has been held (is being announced for the upcoming semester) (is being announced for the upcoming semester) for our students in order to improve their skills on this field. Several numerical model (NRIPR ETA and WRF) systems have been adapted in the University and integrated WRF have been tested and used for the geographical region of the Carpathian Basin (NRIPR, ETA and WRF). Recently ALADIN/CHAPEAU the academic version of the ARPEGE ALADIN cy33t1 meso-scale numerical weather prediction model system (which is the operational forecasting tool of our National Weather Service) has been installed at our Institute. ALADIN is the operational forecasting model of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and developed in the framework of the international ALADIN co-operation. Our main objectives are i) the analysis of different typical weather situations, ii) fine tuning of parameterization schemes and the iii) comparison of the ALADIN/CHAPEAU and WRF model outputs based on case studies. The necessary hardware and software innovations has have been done. In the presentation the

Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. P. Mittermaier

2008-05-01

Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Particles Distribution and Their Radiative Feedback over Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Y.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.

2015-12-01

Stretching from southern boundary of Sahara to the equator and expanding west to east from Atlantic Ocean coasts to the India Ocean coasts, the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region has been subject to intense biomass burning. Comprised of savanna, shrub, tropical forest and a number of agricultural crops, the extensive fires burn belt covers central and south of NSSA during dry season (from October to March) contributes to one of the highest biomass burning rate per km2 in the world. Due to smoke particles' absorption effects of solar radiation, they can modify the surface and atmosphere temperature and thus change atmospheric stability, height of the boundary layer, regional atmospheric circulation, evaporation rate, cloud formation, and precipitation. Hence, smoke particles emitted from biomass burning over NSSA region has a significant influence to the air quality, weather and climate variability. In this study, the first version of this Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER.v1) emissions of several smoke constituents including light-absorbing organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) are applied to a state-of-science meteorology-chemistry model as NOAA Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We analyzed WRF-Chem simulations of surface and vertical distribution of various pollutants and their direct radiative effects in conjunction with satellite observation data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO) to strengthen the importance of combining space measured emission products like FEER.v1 emission inventory with mesoscale model over intense biomass burning region, especially in area where ground-based air-quality and radiation-related observations are limited or absent.

A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Claveau, J; Ramaroson, R [Office National d` Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

1998-12-31

The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Claveau, J.; Ramaroson, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

1997-12-31

The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Massidda

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The balance between production and consumption in a smart grid with high penetration of renewable sources and in the presence of energy storage systems benefits from an accurate load prediction. A general approach to load forecasting is not possible because of the additional complication due to the increasing presence of distributed and usually unmeasured photovoltaic production. Various methods are proposed in the literature that can be classified into two classes: those that predict by separating the portion of load due to consumption habits from the part of production due to local weather conditions, and those that attempt to predict the load as a whole. The characteristic that should lead to a preference for one approach over another is obviously the percentage of penetration of distributed production. The study site discussed in this document is the grid of Borkum, an island located in the North Sea. The advantages in terms of reducing forecasting errors for the electrical load, which can be obtained by using weather information, are explained. In particular, when comparing the results of different approaches gradually introducing weather forecasts, it is clear that the correct functional dependency of production has to be taken into account in order to obtain maximum yield from the available information. Where possible, this approach can significantly improve the quality of the forecasts, which in turn can improve the balance of a network—especially if energy storage systems are in place.

Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

SPace weather applications in a technology-dependent society

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwira, C. M.

2017-12-01

Space weather can adversely key technology assets, such as, high-voltage electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communications systems that are critical to national security and economy. However, the term of "space weather" is not well known in our society. This presentation will introduce key concepts related to the space weather problem and show how space weather impacts our everyday life. The goal is to promote awareness among the general public. Also, this presentation will highlight how space weather is being used to promote STEM education for community college students through the NASA internship program.

The exo-weather report exploring diverse atmospheric phenomena around the universe

CERN Document Server

Stevenson, David S

2016-01-01

David Stevenson’s new book links the meteorology of the Earth to that of other planets, stars, and clusters of galaxies, showing the similarities and differences between terrestrial weather and that of weather on other worlds. Because Earth is not unique in having weather, there is much to learn from other planets with atmospheres that show the movement of energy from hotter to colder areas. The weather seen on Earth and other known planetary systems are examined to elaborate the connection between climate and the development of life. The weather on Earth and other Solar System planets is a manifestation of the huge energy budget imparted by our star, the Sun, but weather doesn’t stop at the shores of our Solar System. The author brings together the latest information from satellites and probes, such as Cassini and Hubble, to show its larger place in the astronomical picture. Inferences are drawn about the weather and climate of a large number of other planetary systems that lie far from our own. Addition...

Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

... Proceedings – Mathematical Sciences · Resonance – Journal of Science ... Land surface characteristics; high resolution mesoscale model; Uttarakhand ... to predict realistic location, timing, amount,intensity and distribution of rainfall ... region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Seaand Bay of Bengal.

Mesoscale modeling of metal-loaded high explosives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bdzil, John Bohdan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lieberthal, Brandon [UNIV OF ILLINOIS; Srewart, Donald S [UNIV OF ILLINOIS

2010-01-01

We describe a 3D approach to modeling multi-phase blast explosive, which is primarily condensed explosive by volume with inert embedded particles. These embedded particles are uniform in size and placed on the array of a regular lattice. The asymptotic theory of detonation shock dynamics governs the detonation shock propagation in the explosive. Mesoscale hydrodynamic simulations are used to show how the particles are compressed, deformed, and accelerated by the high-speed detonation products flow.

Improved analysis and visualization of friction loop data: unraveling the energy dissipation of meso-scale stick-slip motion

Science.gov (United States)

Kokorian, Jaap; Merlijn van Spengen, W.

2017-11-01

In this paper we demonstrate a new method for analyzing and visualizing friction force measurements of meso-scale stick-slip motion, and introduce a method for extracting two separate dissipative energy components. Using a microelectromechanical system tribometer, we execute 2 million reciprocating sliding cycles, during which we measure the static friction force with a resolution of \

The effect of the United States Great Lakes on the maintenance of derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, M.; Sparks, J.; Graham, R.

2003-04-01

The primary aim of this research is to investigate the influence of the United States Great Lakes on the intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). One of the greatest nowcast challenges during the warm season is anticipating the impact of the Great Lakes on severe convection, particularly MCSs capable of producing damaging widespread windstorms known as derechos. Since a major derecho activity corridor lies over the Great Lakes region, it is important to understand the effects of the Lakes on the intensity and propagation of severe wind producing MCSs. Specific objectives of the research include: 1) The development of a short-term climatology of MCS events that have impacted the Great Lakes region over the past seven years; 2) An analysis of radar, satellite, surface (including buoy and lighthouse observations), and lake surface temperature data to determine the environmental conditions impacting the evolution of MCSs passing over a Great Lake; 3) An examination of MCS initiation times and seasonal frequencies of occurrence to delineate temporal consistencies in MCS evolution due to changing lake surface temperatures; and 4) The development of conceptual and forecast models to help anticipate MCS intensity and morphology as these systems interact with the Great Lakes environment.

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space

Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans Schermeyer

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

Sensitivity of an Integrated Mesoscale Atmosphere and Agriculture Land Modeling System (WRF/CMAQ-EPIC) to MODIS Vegetation and Lightning Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteo...

Improving high impact weather and climate prediction for societal resilience in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO-CACTI

Science.gov (United States)

Nesbitt, S. W.; Salio, P. V.; Varble, A.; Trapp, R. J.; Roberts, R. R.; Dominguez, F.; Machado, L.; Saulo, C.

2017-12-01

Subtropical South America is host to many types of weather and climate hazards. The convective systems that initiate near and apart from the complex terrain of the Andes and Sierras de Córdoba are by many measures the most intense in the world, producing hazards such as damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, extreme and unusual lightning behavior, and flash and riverine flooding. These systems are modulated by interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic drivers, however multi-scale models suffer from extreme biases in low level temperature and humidity due to their poor representation of organized convection and representation of convection near complex terrain, which hampers predictive skill of relevant processes across all timescales. To address these cross-cutting issues, we have proposed a large, multi-agency international field campaign called RELAMPAGO-CACTI, which will address key gaps in physical process understanding in the production of convective storms in this region. RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations), funded by NSF/NOAA/NASA/MinCyT/FAPESP, will be a 24-month hydrological-meteorological field campaign, with an intensive observing period 1 Nov - 15 Dec 2018 in the near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), the Andes foothills near Mendoza, and the region near São Borja, Brazil. A complementary funded 7-month DOE field campaign called Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI), which will focus on detailed observations of cloud and aerosol lifecycle near the SDC while an intensive observing period featuring aircraft observations will match RELAMPAGO's. While collecting the observations will enhance knowledge of the processes acting to modulate extremes in the region, a coordinated modeling effort will aim to evaluate coupled weather, climate, and hydrologic models using RELAMPAGO-CACTI observations. In addition, partnerships with the Servicio Meteorol

Investigation of porous concrete through macro and meso-scale testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agar Ozbek, A.S.; Weerheijm, J.; Schlangen, H.E.J.G.

2010-01-01

In designing a porous concrete, containing a high volume of air pores, the effects of its mesoscale phases on its macro level properties have to be known. For this purpose, porous concretes having different aggregate gradings and cement paste compositions were investigated through macro-scale

Optogenetic stimulation of a meso-scale human cortical model

Science.gov (United States)

Selvaraj, Prashanth; Szeri, Andrew; Sleigh, Jamie; Kirsch, Heidi

2015-03-01

Neurological phenomena like sleep and seizures depend not only on the activity of individual neurons, but on the dynamics of neuron populations as well. Meso-scale models of cortical activity provide a means to study neural dynamics at the level of neuron populations. Additionally, they offer a safe and economical way to test the effects and efficacy of stimulation techniques on the dynamics of the cortex. Here, we use a physiologically relevant meso-scale model of the cortex to study the hypersynchronous activity of neuron populations during epileptic seizures. The model consists of a set of stochastic, highly non-linear partial differential equations. Next, we use optogenetic stimulation to control seizures in a hyperexcited cortex, and to induce seizures in a normally functioning cortex. The high spatial and temporal resolution this method offers makes a strong case for the use of optogenetics in treating meso scale cortical disorders such as epileptic seizures. We use bifurcation analysis to investigate the effect of optogenetic stimulation in the meso scale model, and its efficacy in suppressing the non-linear dynamics of seizures.

Mesoscale Model Data Preparation and Execution: A New Method Utilizing the Internet

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kirby, Stephen

2002-01-01

In order to streamline and simplify the methodologies required to obtain and process the requisite meteorological data for mesoscale meteorological models such as the Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM...

Investigating the Potential Impact of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Altimeter on Ocean Mesoscale Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Carrier, M.; Ngodock, H.; Smith, S. R.; Souopgui, I.

2016-02-01

NASA's Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite, scheduled for launch in 2020, will provide sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) observations with a wider swath width and higher spatial resolution than current satellite altimeters. It is expected that this will help to further constrain ocean models in terms of the mesoscale circulation. In this work, this expectation is investigated by way of twin data assimilation experiments using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model Four Dimensional Variational (NCOM-4DVAR) data assimilation system using a weak constraint formulation. Here, a nature run is created from which SWOT observations are sampled, as well as along-track SSHA observations from simulated Jason-2 tracks. The simulated SWOT data has appropriate spatial coverage, resolution, and noise characteristics based on an observation-simulator program provided by the SWOT science team. The experiment is run for a three-month period during which the analysis is updated every 24 hours and each analysis is used to initialize a 96 hour forecast. The forecasts in each experiment are compared to the available nature run to determine the impact of the assimilated data. It is demonstrated here that the SWOT observations help to constrain the model mesoscale in a more consistent manner than traditional altimeter observations. The findings of this study suggest that data from SWOT may have a substantial impact on improving the ocean model analysis and forecast of mesoscale features and surface ocean transport.

Fiscal 1976 Sunshine Project result report. Research on solar energy system (weather survey); 1976 nendo taiyo energy system no kenkyu seika hokokusho. Kisho chosa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1977-03-31

This report describes the fiscal 1976 research result on weather survey for solar energy systems. Study was made on preparation of the global solar radiation (GSR) map of Japan. To obtain the estimation equation of GSR based on related weather data, analysis was made on data at A type GSR observation sites and related weather data. As some factors effective for estimating monthly mean GSR, a relative sunshine duration, snowfall index (ratio of days more than 10cm in snowfall) and solar altitude index (sine of solar altitude at culmination hour) were selected. The estimation equation was prepared on the basis of these above factors. GSR was affected by relative sunshine duration exceedingly, snowfall by 12%, and solar altitude difference by 6% within an error of 5%. The monthly and annual GSR maps were prepared every site by the above calculation. The continuous observation results in Kagoshima and Fukuoka by recording direct pyranometers are presented. Scattered solar radiation is defined as the difference between simultaneously measured GSR and direct solar radiation. Weather data preparation in Fukuoka for design of solar cooling/heating and hot water supply systems is also described. (NEDO)

Weather hazards and vulnerabilities for the European transport system - a risk panorama. EWENT project D5.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Molarius, R.; Leviakangas, P.; Ronty, J.; Oiva, K. (eds.)

2012-09-15

This deliverable of EWENT project estimates the risks of extreme weather on European transport system. The main object of work package 5 in EWENT project was to perform a risk analysis based on impact and probability assessments carried out in earlier work packages (WP2-WP3). The results of WP 5 can be used as a starting point when deciding on the risk reduction measures, strategies and policies in the European Union. This deliverable also serves as a background material for the synthesis report (named shortly as Risk Panorama), which will summarise the findings of risk assessment and previous work packages. The methodological approach of EWENT is based on the generic risk management standard (IEC 60300-3-9) and starts with the identification of hazardous extreme weather phenomena, followed by an impact assessment and concluded by mitigation and risk control measures. This report pools the information from EWENT's earlier work packages, such as risk identification and estimation, into a 'risk panorama' and provides a holistic picture on the risks of extreme weather in different parts of Europe and EU transport network. The risk assessment is based on the definition of transport systems' vulnerability to extreme weather events in different countries and on calculations of the most probable causal chains, starting from adverse weather phenomena and ending up with events that pose harmful consequences to the transport systems in different climate regions. The latter part, the probabilistic section, is the hazard analysis. The vulnerability of a particular mode in a particular country is a function of exposure (indicated by transport or freight volumes and population density), susceptibility (infrastructure quality index, indicating overall resilience) and coping capacity (measured by GDP per capita). Hence, we define the extreme weather risk as Risk = hazard times vulnerability = P(negative consequences) times V[f(exposure, susceptibility, coping

Estimating the surface layer refractive index structure constant over snow and sea ice using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory with a mesoscale atmospheric model.

Science.gov (United States)

Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Huang, Honghua; Tian, Qiguo; Zhu, Wenyue; Rao, Ruizhong; Li, Xuebin

2016-09-05

Since systematic direct measurements of refractive index structure constant ( Cn2) for many climates and seasons are not available, an indirect approach is developed in which Cn2 is estimated from the mesoscale atmospheric model outputs. In previous work, we have presented an approach that a state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Monin-Obukhov Similarity (MOS) theory which can be used to estimate surface layer Cn2 over the ocean. Here this paper is focused on surface layer Cn2 over snow and sea ice, which is the extending of estimating surface layer Cn2 utilizing WRF model for ground-based optical application requirements. This powerful approach is validated against the corresponding 9-day Cn2 data from a field campaign of the 30th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE). We employ several statistical operators to assess how this approach performs. Besides, we present an independent analysis of this approach performance using the contingency tables. Such a method permits us to provide supplementary key information with respect to statistical operators. These methods make our analysis more robust and permit us to confirm the excellent performances of this approach. The reasonably good agreement in trend and magnitude is found between estimated values and measurements overall, and the estimated Cn2 values are even better than the ones obtained by this approach over the ocean surface layer. The encouraging performance of this approach has a concrete practical implementation of ground-based optical applications over snow and sea ice.

Design of remote weather monitor system based on embedded web database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Jiugang; Zhuang Along

2010-01-01

The remote weather monitoring system is designed by employing the embedded Web database technology and the S3C2410 microprocessor as the core. The monitoring system can simultaneously monitor the multi-channel sensor signals, and can give a dynamic Web pages display of various types of meteorological information on the remote computer. It gives a elaborated introduction of the construction and application of the Web database under the embedded Linux. Test results show that the client access the Web page via the GPRS or the Internet, acquires data and uses an intuitive graphical way to display the value of various types of meteorological information. (authors)

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

Science.gov (United States)

Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

2015-04-01

The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Final report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Jake

This is the final report of the project PSO-10240 "Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling". The overall objective is to improve the estimation of extreme winds by developing and applying new methodologies to confront the many weaknesses in the current methodologies as explai...

Space weather effects on ground based technology

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, T.

Space weather can affect a variety of forms of ground-based technology, usually as a result of either the direct effects of the varying geomagnetic field, or as a result of the induced electric field that accompanies such variations. Technologies affected directly by geomagnetic variations include magnetic measurements made d ringu geophysical surveys, and navigation relying on the geomagnetic field as a direction reference, a method that is particularly common in the surveying of well-bores in the oil industry. The most obvious technology affected by induced electric fields during magnetic storms is electric power transmission, where the example of the blackout in Quebec during the March 1989 magnetic storm is widely known. Additionally, space weather effects must be taken into account in the design of active cathodic protection systems on pipelines to protect them against corrosion. Long-distance telecommunication cables may also have to be designed to cope with space weather related effects. This paper reviews the effects of space weather in these different areas of ground-based technology, and provides examples of how mitigation against hazards may be achieved. (The paper does not include the effects of space weather on radio communication or satellite navigation systems).

Observations of mesoscale and boundary-layer scale circulations affecting dust transport and uplift over the Sahara

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. Marsham

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Observations of the Saharan boundary layer, made during the GERBILS field campaign, show that mesoscale land surface temperature variations (which were related to albedo variations induced mesoscale circulations. With weak winds along the aircraft track, land surface temperature anomalies with scales of greater than 10 km are shown to significantly affect boundary-layer temperatures and winds. Such anomalies are expected to affect the vertical mixing of the dusty and weakly stratified Saharan Residual Layer (SRL. Mesoscale variations in winds are also shown to affect dust loadings in the boundary layer.

Using the aircraft observations and data from the COSMO model, a region of local dust uplift, with strong along-track winds, was identified in one low-level flight. Large eddy model (LEM simulations based on this location showed linearly organised boundary-layer convection. Calculating dust uplift rates from the LEM wind field showed that the boundary-layer convection increased uplift by approximately 30%, compared with the uplift rate calculated neglecting the convection. The modelled effects of boundary-layer convection on uplift are shown to be larger when the boundary-layer wind is decreased, and most significant when the mean wind is below the threshold for dust uplift and the boundary-layer convection leads to uplift which would not otherwise occur.

Both the coupling of albedo features to the atmosphere on the mesoscale, and the enhancement of dust uplift by boundary-layer convection are unrepresented in many climate models, but may have significant impacts on the vertical transport and uplift of desert dust. Mesoscale effects in particular tend to be difficult to parametrise.

Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

Mesoscale storm and dry period parameters from hourly precipitation data: program documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thorp, J.M.

1984-09-01

Wet deposition of airborne chemical pollutants occurs primarily from precipitation. Precipitation rate, amount, duration, and location are important meteorological factors to be considered when attempting to understand the relationship of precipitation to pollutant deposition. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted studies and experiments in numerous locations to collect data that can be incorporated into theories and models that attempt to describe the complex relationship between precipitation occurrence and chemical wet desposition. Model development often requires the use of average rather than random condition as input. To provide mean values of storm parameters, the task, Climatological Analysis of Mesoscale Storms, was created as a facet of the Environmental Protection Agency's related-service project, Precipitation Scavenging Module Development. Within this task computer programs have been developed at PNL which incorporate hourly precipitation data from National Weather Service stations to calculate mean values and frequency distributions of precipitation periods and of the interspersed dry periods. These programs have been written with a degree of flexibiity that will allow user modification for applications to different, but similar, analyses. This report describes in detail the rationale and operation of the two computer programs which produce the tables of average and frequency distributions of storm and dry period parameters from the precipitation data. A listing of the programs and examples of the generated output are included in the appendices. 3 references, 3 figures, 6 tables.

Nanoscale form dictates mesoscale function in plasmonic DNA–nanoparticle superlattices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, Michael B.; Ku, Jessie C.; Vaccarezza, Victoria M.; Schatz, George C.; Mirkin , Chad A. (NWU)

2016-06-15

The nanoscale manipulation of matter allows properties to be created in a material that would be difficult or even impossible to achieve in the bulk state. Progress towards such functional nanoscale architectures requires the development of methods to precisely locate nanoscale objects in three dimensions and for the formation of rigorous structure–function relationships across multiple size regimes (beginning from the nanoscale). Here, we use DNA as a programmable ligand to show that two- and three-dimensional mesoscale superlattice crystals with precisely engineered optical properties can be assembled from the bottom up. The superlattices can transition from exhibiting the properties of the constituent plasmonic nanoparticles to adopting the photonic properties defined by the mesoscale crystal (here a rhombic dodecahedron) by controlling the spacing between the gold nanoparticle building blocks. Furthermore, we develop a generally applicable theoretical framework that illustrates how crystal habit can be a design consideration for controlling far-field extinction and light confinement in plasmonic metamaterial superlattices.

Statistical relationship between surface PM10 concentration and aerosol optical depth over the Sahel as a function of weather type, using neural network methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Yahi, H.; Marticorena, B.; Thiria, S.; Chatenet, B.; Schmechtig, C.; Rajot, J. L.; Crepon, M.

2013-12-01

work aims at assessing the capability of passive remote-sensed measurements such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) to monitor the surface dust concentration during the dry season in the Sahel region (West Africa). We processed continuous measurements of AODs and surface concentrations for the period (2006-2010) in Banizoumbou (Niger) and Cinzana (Mali). In order to account for the influence of meteorological condition on the relationship between PM10 surface concentration and AOD, we decomposed the mesoscale meteorological fields surrounding the stations into five weather types having similar 3-dimensional atmospheric characteristics. This classification was obtained by a clustering method based on nonlinear artificial neural networks, the so-called self-organizing map. The weather types were identified by processing tridimensional fields of meridional and zonal winds and air temperature obtained from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model output centered on each measurement station. Five similar weather types have been identified at the two stations. Three of them are associated with the Harmattan flux; the other two correspond to northward inflow of the monsoon flow at the beginning or the end of the dry season. An improved relationship has been found between the surface PM10 concentrations and the AOD by using a dedicated statistical relationship for each weather type. The performances of the statistical inversion computed on the test data sets show satisfactory skills for most of the classes, much better than a linear regression. This should permit the inversion of the mineral dust concentration from AODs derived from satellite observations over the Sahel.

Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

2018-03-01

Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

Weather radars – the new eyes for offshore wind farms?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Pinson, Pierre; Vincent, Claire Louise

2014-01-01

Offshore wind fluctuations are such that dedicated prediction and control systems are needed for optimizing the management of wind farms in real-time. In this paper, we present a pioneer experiment – Radar@Sea – in which weather radars are used for monitoring the weather at the Horns Rev offshore...... inputs to prediction systems for anticipating changes in the wind fluctuation dynamics, generating improved wind power forecasts and developing specific control strategies. However, integrating weather radar observations into automated decision support systems is not a plug-and-play task...... observed at Horns Rev and (iv) we discuss the future perspectives for weather radars in wind energy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Weather Service Modernization and Weather Satellite Program

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Willemssen, Joel

2000-01-01

...). At your request, we will discuss the status of the National Weather Service (NWS) systems modernization and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program...

Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

2010-09-01

predicted by Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the SMC forecast operational model, is compared with the local rain gauge network for year 2008 (Comellas et al., 2010). This study presents benefits and drawbacks of both Italian and Catalonian systems. Moreover, a particular attention is paid on the link between system's predictive ability and the predicted severe weather type as a function of its space-time development.

Sensitivity of an Integrated Mesoscale Atmosphere and Agriculture Land Modeling System (WRF/CMAQ-EPIC) to MODIS Vegetation and Lightning Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Ran, L.; Cooter, E. J.; Gilliam, R. C.; Foroutan, H.; Kang, D.; Appel, W.; Wong, D. C.; Pleim, J. E.; Benson, V.; Pouliot, G.

2017-12-01

The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteorology, climate, and chemical transport. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) is a cropping model which has long been used in a range of applications related to soil erosion, crop productivity, climate change, and water quality around the world. We have integrated WRF/CMAQ with EPIC using the Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) to estimate daily soil N information with fertilization for CMAQ bi-directional ammonia flux modeling. Driven by the weather and N deposition from WRF/CMAQ, FEST-C EPIC simulations are conducted on 22 different agricultural production systems ranging from managed grass lands (e.g. hay and alfalfa) to crop lands (e.g. corn grain and soybean) with rainfed and irrigated information across any defined conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and grid resolution. In recent years, this integrated system has been enhanced and applied in many different air quality and ecosystem assessment projects related to land-water-atmosphere interactions. These enhancements have advanced this system to become a valuable tool for integrated assessments of air, land and water quality in light of social drivers and human and ecological outcomes. This presentation will focus on evaluating the sensitivity of precipitation and N deposition in the integrated system to MODIS vegetation input and lightning assimilation and their impacts on agricultural production and fertilization. We will describe the integrated modeling system and evaluate simulated precipitation and N deposition along with other weather information (e.g. temperature, humidity) for 2011 over the conterminous U.S. at 12 km grids from a coupled WRF/CMAQ with MODIS and lightning assimilation

Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Hallinan, Gregg

2018-06-01

Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

Mesoscale model parameterizations for radiation and turbulent fluxes at the lower boundary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somieski, F.

1988-11-01

A radiation parameterization scheme for use in mesoscale models with orography and clouds has been developed. Broadband parameterizations are presented for the solar and the terrestrial spectral ranges. They account for clear, turbid or cloudy atmospheres. The scheme is one-dimensional in the atmosphere, but the effects of mountains (inclination, shading, elevated horizon) are taken into account at the surface. In the terrestrial band, grey and black clouds are considered. Furthermore, the calculation of turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat and momentum at an inclined lower model boundary is described. Surface-layer similarity and the surface energy budget are used to evaluate the ground surface temperature. The total scheme is part of the mesoscale model MESOSCOP. (orig.) With 3 figs., 25 refs [de

Some effects of adverse weather conditions on performance of airplane antiskid braking systems

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, W. B.; Mccarty, J. L.; Tanner, J. A.

1976-01-01

The performance of current antiskid braking systems operating under adverse weather conditions was analyzed in an effort to both identify the causes of locked-wheel skids which sometimes occur when the runway is slippery and to find possible solutions to this operational problem. This analysis was made possible by the quantitative test data provided by recently completed landing research programs using fully instrumented flight test airplanes and was further supported by tests performed at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The antiskid system logic for brake control and for both touchdown and locked-wheel protection is described and its response behavior in adverse weather is discussed in detail with the aid of available data. The analysis indicates that the operational performance of the antiskid logic circuits is highly dependent upon wheel spin-up acceleration and can be adversely affected by certain pilot braking inputs when accelerations are low. Normal antiskid performance is assured if the tire-to-runway traction is sufficient to provide high wheel spin-up accelerations or if the system is provided a continuous, accurate ground speed reference. The design of antiskid systems is complicated by the necessity for tradeoffs between tire braking and cornering capabilities, both of which are necessary to provide safe operations in the presence of cross winds, particularly under slippery runway conditions.

Environmental Information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, J.; Miner, C.; Pace, D.; Minnis, P.; Mecikalski, J.; Feltz, W.; Johnson, D.; Iskendarian, H.; Haynes, J.

2009-09-01

It is estimated that weather is responsible for approximately 70% of all air traffic delays and cancellations in the United States. Annually, this produces an overall economic loss of nearly 40B. The FAA and NASA have determined that weather impacts and other environmental constraints on the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) will increase to the point of system unsustainability unless the NAS is radically transformed. A Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is planned to accommodate the anticipated demand for increased system capacity and the super-density operations that this transformation will entail. The heart of the environmental information component that is being developed for NextGen will be a 4-dimensional data cube which will include a single authoritative source comprising probabilistic weather information for NextGen Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems. Aviation weather constraints and safety hazards typically comprise meso-scale, storm-scale and microscale observables that can significantly impact both terminal and enroute aviation operations. With these operational impacts in mind, functional and performance requirements for the NextGen weather system were established which require significant improvements in observation and forecasting capabilities. This will include satellite observations from geostationary and/or polar-orbiting hyperspectral sounders, multi-spectral imagers, lightning mappers, space weather monitors and other environmental observing systems. It will also require improved in situ and remotely sensed observations from ground-based and airborne systems. These observations will be used to better understand and to develop forecasting applications for convective weather, in-flight icing, turbulence, ceilings and visibility, volcanic ash, space weather and the environmental impacts of aviation. Cutting-edge collaborative research efforts and results from NASA, NOAA and the FAA which address these phenomena are summarized

Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

2018-01-01

A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for Total Lightning

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Koshak, W.; Buechler, D.; Carey, L.; Chronis, T.; Mach, D.; Bateman, M.; Peterson, H.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.;

Spatially explicit simulation of peatland hydrology and carbon dioxide exchange: Influence of mesoscale topography

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.; Ju, W.; Govind, A.

2008-06-01

Carbon dynamics in peatlands are controlled, in large part, by their wetness as defined by water table depth and volumetric liquid soil moisture content. A common type of peatland is raised bogs that typically have a multiple-layer canopy of vascular plants over a Sphagnum moss ground cover. Their convex form restricts water supply to precipitation and water is shed toward the margins, usually by lateral subsurface flow. The hydraulic gradient for lateral subsurface flow is governed by the peat surface topography at the mesoscale (˜200 m to 5 km). To investigate the influence of mesoscale topography on wetness, evapotranspiration (ET), and gross primary productivity (GPP) in a bog during the snow-free period, we compare the outputs of a further developed version of the daily Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) with observations made at the Mer Bleue peatland, located near Ottawa, Canada. Explicitly considering mesoscale topography, simulated total ET and GPP correlate well with measured ET (r = 0.91) and derived gross ecosystem productivity (GEP; r = 0.92). Both measured ET and derived GEP are simulated similarly well when mesoscale topography is neglected, but daily simulated values are systematically underestimated by about 10% and 12% on average, respectively, due to greater wetness resulting from the lack of lateral subsurface flow. Owing to the differences in moss surface conductances of water vapor and carbon dioxide with increasing moss water content, the differences in the spatial patterns of simulated total ET and GPP are controlled by the mesotopographic position of the moss ground cover.

Aircraft Icing Weather Data Reporting and Dissemination System

Science.gov (United States)

Bass, Ellen J.; Minsk, Brian; Lindholm, Tenny; Politovich, Marcia; Reehorst, Andrew (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The long-term operational concept of this research is to develop an onboard aircraft system that assesses and reports atmospheric icing conditions automatically and in a timely manner in order to improve aviation safety and the efficiency of aircraft operations via improved real-time and forecast weather products. The idea is to use current measurement capabilities on aircraft equipped with icing sensors and in-flight data communication technologies as a reporting source. Without requiring expensive avionics upgrades, aircraft data must be processed and available for downlink. Ideally, the data from multiple aircraft can then be integrated (along with other real-time and modeled data) on the ground such that aviation-centered icing hazard metrics for volumes of airspace can be assessed. As the effect of icing on different aircraft types can vary, the information should be displayed in meaningful ways such that multiple types of users can understand the information. That is, information must be presented in a manner to allow users to understand the icing conditions with respect to individual concerns and aircraft capabilities. This research provides progress toward this operational concept by: identifying an aircraft platform capable of digitally capturing, processing, and downlinking icing data; identifying the required in situ icing data processing; investigating the requirements for routing the icing data for use by weather products; developing an icing case study in order to gain insight into major air carrier needs; developing and prototyping icing display concepts based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research's existing diagnostic and forecast experimental icing products; and conducting a usability study for the prototyped icing display concepts.

Devils Lake Climate, Weather, and Water Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Horsfall, F. M.; Kluck, D. R.; Brewer, M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Symonds, J.; Dummer, S.; Frazier, M.; Shulski, M.; Akyuz, A.

2010-12-01

North Dakota’s Devils Lake area represents an example of a community struggling with a serious climate-related problem. The Devils Lake water level elevation has been rising since 1993 due to a prolonged wet period, and it is now approaching the spill stage into the Cheyenne River and ultimately into the Red River of the North. The impacts of the rising water have already caused significant disruption to the surrounding communities, and even greater impacts will be seen if the lake reaches the spill elevation. These impacts include flooding, water quality issues, impacts to agriculture and ecosystems, and impacts to local and regional economies. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the National Weather Service (NWS), the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), provides the U.S. public with climate, water, and weather services, including meteorological, hydrological and climate data, warnings, and forecasts of weather and climate from near- to longer-term timescales. In support of the people of Devils Lake, the surrounding communities, the people of North Dakota, and the other Federal agencies with responsibilities in the area, NOAA launched the first ever climate-sensitive decision support web site (www.devilslake.noaa.gov) in July 2010. The website is providing integrated weather, water, and climate information for the area, and has links to information from other agencies, such as USGS, to help decision makers as they address this ongoing challenge. This paper will describe the website and other ongoing activities by NOAA in support of this community.

Review of power sources for Alaska DOT & PF road weather information systems (RWIS) : phase I.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

This report documents the findings related to a review of power sources for six off-grid Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS) in : Alaska. Various power sources were reviewed as a means of reliably operating the off-grid RWIS sites throughout the ...

Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

2017-12-01

Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

Mesoscale meteorological model based on radioactive explosion cloud simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Yi; Zhang Yan; Ying Chuntong

2008-01-01

In order to simulate nuclear explosion and dirty bomb radioactive cloud movement and concentration distribution, mesoscale meteorological model RAMS was used. Particles-size, size-active distribution and gravitational fallout in the cloud were considered. The results show that the model can simulate the 'mushroom' clouds of explosion. Three-dimension fluid field and radioactive concentration field were received. (authors)

Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Todor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

WRF Mesoscale Pre-Run for the Wind Atlas of Mexico

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hahmann, Andrea N.; Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Hansen, Jens Carsten

This report documents the work performed by DTU Wind Energy for the project “Atlas Eólico Mexicano” or the Wind Atlas of Mexico. This document reports on the methods used in “Pre-run” of the windmapping project for Mexico. The interim mesoscale modeling results were calculated from the output...

GPU-Accelerated Real-Time Surveillance De-Weathering

OpenAIRE

Pettersson, Niklas

2013-01-01

A fully automatic de-weathering system to increase the visibility/stability in surveillance applications during bad weather has been developed. Rain, snow and haze during daylight are handled in real-time performance with acceleration from CUDA implemented algorithms. Video from fixed cameras is processed on a PC with no need of special hardware except an NVidia GPU. The system does not use any background model and does not require any precalibration. Increase in contrast is obtained in all h...

Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulf Riediger

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

Creating a Realistic Weather Environment for Motion-Based Piloted Flight Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, Taumi S.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Evans, Emory T.; Neece, Robert T.; Young, Steve D.

2012-01-01

A flight simulation environment is being enhanced to facilitate experiments that evaluate research prototypes of advanced onboard weather radar, hazard/integrity monitoring (HIM), and integrated alerting and notification (IAN) concepts in adverse weather conditions. The simulation environment uses weather data based on real weather events to support operational scenarios in a terminal area. A simulated atmospheric environment was realized by using numerical weather data sets. These were produced from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model hosted and run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To align with the planned flight simulation experiment requirements, several HRRR data sets were acquired courtesy of NOAA. These data sets coincided with severe weather events at the Memphis International Airport (MEM) in Memphis, TN. In addition, representative flight tracks for approaches and departures at MEM were generated and used to develop and test simulations of (1) what onboard sensors such as the weather radar would observe; (2) what datalinks of weather information would provide; and (3) what atmospheric conditions the aircraft would experience (e.g. turbulence, winds, and icing). The simulation includes a weather radar display that provides weather and turbulence modes, derived from the modeled weather along the flight track. The radar capabilities and the pilots controls simulate current-generation commercial weather radar systems. Appropriate data-linked weather advisories (e.g., SIGMET) were derived from the HRRR weather models and provided to the pilot consistent with NextGen concepts of use for Aeronautical Information Service (AIS) and Meteorological (MET) data link products. The net result of this simulation development was the creation of an environment that supports investigations of new flight deck information systems, methods for incorporation of better weather information, and pilot interface and operational improvements

Weather Information Communication Technologies for Increased Safety and Mobility in the National Airspace System

Science.gov (United States)

Hilderman, Don R.

2006-01-01

The purpose of the NASA Glenn Research Center Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) project was to develop advanced communications and information technologies to enable the high-quality and timely dissemination of strategic weather information between the flight deck and ground users as well as tactical turbulence hazard information between relevant aircraft and to the ground. This report will document and reference accomplishments on the dissemination of weather information during the en route phase of flight from ground-based weather information providers to the flight deck (ground-to-air), from airborne meteorological sensors to ground users (air-to-ground), and weather turbulence and icing hazard information between relevant aircraft (air-to-air). In addition, references in this report will demonstrate the architecture necessary to implement and perform successful transmission and reception of weather information to the cockpit, show that weather information flow does not impact "normal" traffic, demonstrate the feasibility of operational implementation, and lay foundation for future data link development.

Development of GNSS PWV information management system for very short-term weather forecast in the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Han-Earl; Yoon, Ha Su; Yoo, Sung-Moon; Cho, Jungho

2017-04-01

Over the past decade, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) was in the spotlight as a meteorological research tool. The Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) developed a GNSS precipitable water vapor (PWV) information management system to apply PWV to practical applications, such as very short-term weather forecast. The system consists of a DPR, DRS, and TEV, which are divided functionally. The DPR processes GNSS data using the Bernese GNSS software and then retrieves PWV from zenith total delay (ZTD) with the optimized mean temperature equation for the Korean Peninsula. The DRS collects data from eighty permanent GNSS stations in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula and provides the PWV retrieved from GNSS data to a user. The TEV is in charge of redundancy of the DPR. The whole process is performed in near real-time where the delay is ten minutes. The validity of the GNSS PWV was proved by means of a comparison with radiosonde data. In the experiment of numerical weather prediction model, the GNSS PWV was utilized as the initial value of the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model for heavy rainfall event. As a result, we found that the forecasting capability of the WRF is improved by data assimilation of GNSS PWV.

Weathering and landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

2005-04-01

In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

Mesoscale Iron Enrichment Experiments 1993–2005 : Synthesis and Future Directions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boyd, P.W.; Jickells, T.; Law, C.S.; Blain, S.; Boyle, E.A.; Buesseler, K.O.; Coale, K.H.; Cullen, J.J.; Baar, H.J.W. de; Follows, M.; Harvey, M.; Lancelot, C.; Levasseur, M.; Owens, N.P.J.; Pollard, R.; Rivkin, R.B.; Sarmiento, J.; Schoemann, V.; Smetacek, V.; Takeda, S.; Tsuda, A.; Turner, S.; Watson, A.J.; Jickells, S.

2007-01-01

Since the mid-1980s, our understanding of nutrient limitation of oceanic primary production has radically changed. Mesoscale iron addition experiments (FeAXs) have unequivocally shown that iron supply limits production in one-third of the world ocean, where surface macronutrient concentrations are

Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

Science.gov (United States)

Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and

Towards high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Buongiorno Nardelli

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The MyOcean R&D project MESCLA (MEsoSCaLe dynamical Analysis through combined model, satellite and in situ data was devoted to the high resolution 3-D retrieval of tracer and velocity fields in the oceans, based on the combination of in situ and satellite observations and quasi-geostrophic dynamical models. The retrieval techniques were also tested and compared with the output of a primitive equation model, with particular attention to the accuracy of the vertical velocity field as estimated through the Q vector formulation of the omega equation. The project focused on a test case, covering the region where the Gulf Stream separates from the US East Coast. This work demonstrated that innovative methods for the high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations can be used to build the next generations of operational observation-based products.

On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

2014-12-01

This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

Evaluation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) for Weather and Climate using the Multi-testbed approach

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, B.; Lee, T.; Buban, M.; Dumas, E. J.

2017-12-01

Evaluation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) for Weather and Climate using the Multi-testbed approachC. Bruce Baker1, Ed Dumas1,2, Temple Lee1,2, Michael Buban1,21NOAA ARL, Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Oak Ridge, TN2Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN The development of a small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) testbeds that can be used to validate, integrate, calibrate and evaluate new technology and sensors for routine boundary layer research, validation of operational weather models, improvement of model parameterizations, and recording observations within high-impact storms is important for understanding the importance and impact of using sUAS's routinely as a new observing platform. The goal of the multi-testbed approach is to build a robust set of protocols to assess the cost and operational feasibility of unmanned observations for routine applications using various combinations of sUAS aircraft and sensors in different locations and field experiments. All of these observational testbeds serve different community needs, but they also use a diverse suite of methodologies for calibration and evaluation of different sensors and platforms for severe weather and boundary layer research. The primary focus will be to evaluate meteorological sensor payloads to measure thermodynamic parameters and define surface characteristics with visible, IR, and multi-spectral cameras. This evaluation will lead to recommendations for sensor payloads for VTOL and fixed-wing sUAS.

Progress in space weather predictions and applications

Science.gov (United States)

Lundstedt, H.

The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

Mesoscale eddies are oases for higher trophic marine life

KAUST Repository

Godø , Olav R.; Samuelsen, Annette; Macaulay, Gavin J.; Patel, Ruben; Hjø llo, Solfrid Sæ tre; Horne, John; Kaartvedt, Stein; Johannessen, Johnny A.

2012-01-01

Mesoscale eddies stimulate biological production in the ocean, but knowledge of energy transfers to higher trophic levels within eddies remains fragmented and not quantified. Increasing the knowledge base is constrained by the inability of traditional sampling methods to adequately sample biological processes at the spatio-temporal scales at which they occur. By combining satellite and acoustic observations over spatial scales of 10 s of km horizontally and 100 s of m vertically, supported by hydrographical and biological sampling we show that anticyclonic eddies shape distribution and density of marine life from the surface to bathyal depths. Fish feed along density structures of eddies, demonstrating that eddies catalyze energy transfer across trophic levels. Eddies create attractive pelagic habitats, analogous to oases in the desert, for higher trophic level aquatic organisms through enhanced 3-D motion that accumulates and redistributes biomass, contributing to overall bioproduction in the ocean. Integrating multidisciplinary observation methodologies promoted a new understanding of biophysical interaction in mesoscale eddies. Our findings emphasize the impact of eddies on the patchiness of biomass in the sea and demonstrate that they provide rich feeding habitat for higher trophic marine life. 2012 God et al.

Mesoscale eddies are oases for higher trophic marine life

KAUST Repository

Godø, Olav R.

2012-01-17

Mesoscale eddies stimulate biological production in the ocean, but knowledge of energy transfers to higher trophic levels within eddies remains fragmented and not quantified. Increasing the knowledge base is constrained by the inability of traditional sampling methods to adequately sample biological processes at the spatio-temporal scales at which they occur. By combining satellite and acoustic observations over spatial scales of 10 s of km horizontally and 100 s of m vertically, supported by hydrographical and biological sampling we show that anticyclonic eddies shape distribution and density of marine life from the surface to bathyal depths. Fish feed along density structures of eddies, demonstrating that eddies catalyze energy transfer across trophic levels. Eddies create attractive pelagic habitats, analogous to oases in the desert, for higher trophic level aquatic organisms through enhanced 3-D motion that accumulates and redistributes biomass, contributing to overall bioproduction in the ocean. Integrating multidisciplinary observation methodologies promoted a new understanding of biophysical interaction in mesoscale eddies. Our findings emphasize the impact of eddies on the patchiness of biomass in the sea and demonstrate that they provide rich feeding habitat for higher trophic marine life. 2012 God et al.

Mesoscale eddies are oases for higher trophic marine life.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olav R Godø

Full Text Available Mesoscale eddies stimulate biological production in the ocean, but knowledge of energy transfers to higher trophic levels within eddies remains fragmented and not quantified. Increasing the knowledge base is constrained by the inability of traditional sampling methods to adequately sample biological processes at the spatio-temporal scales at which they occur. By combining satellite and acoustic observations over spatial scales of 10 s of km horizontally and 100 s of m vertically, supported by hydrographical and biological sampling we show that anticyclonic eddies shape distribution and density of marine life from the surface to bathyal depths. Fish feed along density structures of eddies, demonstrating that eddies catalyze energy transfer across trophic levels. Eddies create attractive pelagic habitats, analogous to oases in the desert, for higher trophic level aquatic organisms through enhanced 3-D motion that accumulates and redistributes biomass, contributing to overall bioproduction in the ocean. Integrating multidisciplinary observation methodologies promoted a new understanding of biophysical interaction in mesoscale eddies. Our findings emphasize the impact of eddies on the patchiness of biomass in the sea and demonstrate that they provide rich feeding habitat for higher trophic marine life.

Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Olita

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data with an analysis (AN assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM. Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to

Capturing the WUnder: Using weather stations and WeatherUnderground to increase middle school students' understanding and interest in science

Science.gov (United States)

Schild, K. M.; Dunne, P.

2014-12-01

New models of elementary- and middle-school level science education are emerging in response to the need for science literacy and the development of the Next Generation Science Standards. One of these models is fostered through the NSF's Graduate Teaching Fellows in K-12 Education (GK-12) program, which pairs a graduate fellow with a science teacher at a local school for an entire school year. In our project, a PhD Earth Sciences student was paired with a local middle school science teacher with the goal of installing a weather station, and incorporating the station data into the 8th grade science curriculum. Here we discuss how we were able to use a school weather station to introduce weather and climate material, engage and involve students in the creative process of science, and motivate students through inquiry-based lessons. In using a weather station as the starting point for material, we were able to make science tangible for students and provide an opportunity for each student to experience the entire process of scientific inquiry. This hands-on approach resulted in a more thorough understanding the system beyond a knowledge of the components, and was particularly effective in challenging prior weather and climate misconceptions. We were also able to expand the reach of the lessons by connecting with other weather stations in our region and even globally, enabling the students to become members of a larger system.

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

Science.gov (United States)

Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

2017-12-01

Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

Short-term meso-scale variability of mesozooplankton communities in a coastal upwelling system (NW Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Roura, Álvaro; Álvarez-Salgado, Xosé A.; González, Ángel F.; Gregori, María; Rosón, Gabriel; Guerra, Ángel

2013-02-01

The short-term, meso-scale variability of the mesozooplankton community present in the coastal upwelling system of the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain) has been analysed. Three well-defined communities were identified: coastal, frontal and oceanic, according to their holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, richness, and total abundance. These communities changed from summer to autumn due to a shift from downwelling to upwelling-favourable conditions coupled with taxa dependent changes in life strategies. Relationships between the resemblance matrix of mesozooplankton and the resemblance matrices of meteorologic, hydrographic and community-derived biotic variables were determined with distance-based linear models (DistLM, 18 variables), showing an increasing amount of explained variability of 6%, 16.1% and 54.5%, respectively. A simplified model revealed that the variability found in the resemblance matrix of mesozooplankton was mainly described by the holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, the total abundance, the influence of lunar cycles, the upwelling index and the richness; altogether accounting for 64% of the total variability. The largest variability of the mesozooplankton resemblance matrix (39.6%) is accounted by the holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, a simple index that describes appropriately the coastal-ocean gradient. The communities described herein kept their integrity in the studied upwelling and downwelling episodes in spite of the highly advective environment off the Ría de Vigo, presumably due to behavioural changes in the vertical position of the zooplankton.

Next generation of weather generators on web service framework

Science.gov (United States)

Chinnachodteeranun, R.; Hung, N. D.; Honda, K.; Ines, A. V. M.

2016-12-01

Weather generator is a statistical model that synthesizes possible realization of long-term historical weather in future. It generates several tens to hundreds of realizations stochastically based on statistical analysis. Realization is essential information as a crop modeling's input for simulating crop growth and yield. Moreover, they can be contributed to analyzing uncertainty of weather to crop development stage and to decision support system on e.g. water management and fertilizer management. Performing crop modeling requires multidisciplinary skills which limit the usage of weather generator only in a research group who developed it as well as a barrier for newcomers. To improve the procedures of performing weather generators as well as the methodology to acquire the realization in a standard way, we implemented a framework for providing weather generators as web services, which support service interoperability. Legacy weather generator programs were wrapped in the web service framework. The service interfaces were implemented based on an international standard that was Sensor Observation Service (SOS) defined by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Clients can request realizations generated by the model through SOS Web service. Hierarchical data preparation processes required for weather generator are also implemented as web services and seamlessly wired. Analysts and applications can invoke services over a network easily. The services facilitate the development of agricultural applications and also reduce the workload of analysts on iterative data preparation and handle legacy weather generator program. This architectural design and implementation can be a prototype for constructing further services on top of interoperable sensor network system. This framework opens an opportunity for other sectors such as application developers and scientists in other fields to utilize weather generators.

Monthly Weather Review

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

Automatic Classification of Offshore Wind Regimes With Weather Radar Observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Weather radar observations are called to play an important role in offshore wind energy. In particular, they can enable the monitoring of weather conditions in the vicinity of large-scale offshore wind farms and thereby notify the arrival of precipitation systems associated with severe wind...... and amplitude) using reflectivity observations from a single weather radar system. A categorical sequence of most likely wind regimes is estimated from a wind speed time series by combining a Markov-Switching model and a global decoding technique, the Viterbi algorithm. In parallel, attributes of precipitation...... systems are extracted from weather radar images. These attributes describe the global intensity, spatial continuity and motion of precipitation echoes on the images. Finally, a CART classification tree is used to find the broad relationships between precipitation attributes and wind regimes...

How biophysical interactions associated with sub- and mesoscale structures and migration behavior affect planktonic larvae of the spiny lobster in the Juan Fernández Ridge: A modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Medel, Carolina; Parada, Carolina; Morales, Carmen E.; Pizarro, Oscar; Ernst, Billy; Conejero, Carlos

2018-03-01

The Juan Fernández Ridge (JFR) is a chain of topographical elevations in the eastern South Pacific (∼33-35°S, 76-81.5°W). Rich in endemic marine species, this ridge is frequently affected by the arrival of mesoscale eddies originating in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile. The impacts of these interactions on the structure and dynamics of the JFR pelagic system have, however, not been addressed yet. The present model-based study is focused on the coupled influence of mesoscale-submesoscale processes and biological behavior (i.e., diel vertical migration) on the horizontal distribution of planktonic larvae of the spiny lobster (Jasus frontalis) around the JFR waters. Two case studies were selected from a hydrodynamic Regional Ocean Modeling System to characterize mesoscale and submesoscale structures and an Individual-based model (IBM) to simulate diel vertical migration (DVM) and its impact on the horizontal distribution and the patchiness level. DVM behavior of these larvae has not been clearly characterized, therefore, three types of vertical mechanisms were assessed on the IBM: (1) no migration (LG), (2) a short migration (0-50 m depth, DVM1), and (3) a long migration (10-200 m depth, DVM2). The influence of physical properties (eddy kinetic energy, stretching deformation and divergence) on larval aggregation within meso and submesoscale features was quantified. The patchiness index assessed for mesoscale and submesoscale structures showed higher values in the mesoscale than in the submesoscale. However, submesoscale structures revealed a higher accumulation of particles by unit of area. Both vertical migration mechanisms produced larger patchiness indices compared to the no migration experiment. DVM2 was the one that showed by far the largest aggregation of almost all the aggregation zones. Larval concentrations were highest in the submesoscale structures; these zones were characterized by low eddy kinetic energy, negative stretching

Impact of Lake Okeechobee Sea Surface Temperatures on Numerical Predictions of Summertime Convective Systems over South Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Case, Jonathan L.; Splitt, Michael E.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Santos, Pablo; Lazarus, Steven M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2009-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, the Florida Institute of Technology, and the NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office at Miami, FL (MFL) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using high-resolution, 2-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composites within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The NWS MFL is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution. The project objective is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing over water using the MODIS SST composites within the 4-km WRF runs will result in improved sea fluxes and hence, more accurate e\\olutiono f coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. SPoRT conducted parallel WRF EMS runs from February to August 2007 identical to the operational runs at NWS MFL except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water. During the course of this evaluation, an intriguing case was examined from 6 May 2007, in which lake breezes and convection around Lake Okeechobee evolved quite differently when using the high-resolution SPoRT MODIS SST composites versus the lower-resolution RTG SSTs. This paper will analyze the differences in the 6 May simulations, as well as examine other cases from the summer 2007 in which the WRF

Vulnerability of Bread-Baskets to Weather Shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; West, P. C.; Foley, J. A.

2013-12-01

Many analyses of food security consider broad trends in food supply (crop production, crop use) and demand (changing diets, population growth.) However, if past shocks to the food system due to weather events (i.e. droughts) were to repeat themselves today, the resulting famines could be far more serious due to increased concentration of grain production in vulnerable bread-baskets, and decreased resilience of global and regional food systems (i.e. lower stocks, dependence on fewer crops). The present research project takes advantage of high-resolution historical weather datasets to assess probabilities of historically observed droughts repeating themselves in one or more of today's bread-basket regions. Using recently developed relationships between weather and crop yield, we consider the likelihood of region-wide crop failures under current conditions, and also under various climate scenarios.

Modeling of mesoscale dispersion effect on the piezoresistivity of carbon nanotube-polymer nanocomposites via 3D computational multiscale micromechanics methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Xiang; Seidel, Gary D; Chaurasia, Adarsh K; Oliva-Avilés, Andrés I; Ku-Herrera, José J; Avilés, Francis

2015-01-01

In uniaxial tension and compression experiments, carbon nanotube (CNT)-polymer nanocomposites have demonstrated exceptional mechanical and coupled electrostatic properties in the form of piezoresistivity. In order to better understand the correlation of the piezoresistive response with the CNT dispersion at the mesoscale, a 3D computational multiscale micromechanics model based on finite element analysis is constructed to predict the effective macroscale piezoresistive response of CNT/polymer nanocomposites. The key factors that may contribute to the overall piezoresistive response, i.e. the nanoscale electrical tunneling effect, the inherent CNT piezoresistivity and the CNT mesoscale network effect are incorporated in the model based on a 3D multiscale mechanical–electrostatic coupled code. The results not only explain how different nanoscale mechanisms influence the overall macroscale piezoresistive response through the mesoscale CNT network, but also give reason and provide bounds for the wide range of gauge factors found in the literature offering insight regarding how control of the mesoscale CNT networks can be used to tailor nanocomposite piezoresistive response. (paper)

The response of a simulated mesoscale convective system to increased aerosol pollution: Part I: Precipitation intensity, distribution, and efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Clavner, Michal; Cotton, William R.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Pierce, Jeffery R.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are important contributors to rainfall in the High Plains of the United States and elsewhere in the world. It is therefore of interest to understand how different aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) may impact the total amount, rates and spatial distribution of precipitation produced by MCSs. In this study, different aerosol concentrations and their effects on precipitation produced by an MCS are examined by simulating the 8 May 2009 "Super-Derecho" MCS using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with sophisticated aerosol and microphysical parameterizations. Three simulations were conducted that differed only in the initial concentration, spatial distribution, and chemical composition of aerosols. Aerosol fields were derived from the output of GEOS-Chem, a 3D chemical transport numerical model. Results from the RAMS simulations show that the total domain precipitation was not significantly affected by variations in aerosol concentrations, however, the pollution aerosols altered the precipitation characteristics. The more polluted simulations exhibited higher precipitation rates, higher bulk precipitation efficiency, a larger area with heavier precipitation, and a smaller area with lighter precipitation. These differences arose as a result of aerosols enhancing precipitation in the convective region of the MCS while suppressing precipitation from the MCS's stratiform-anvil. In the convective region, several processes likely contributed to an increase of precipitation. First, owing to the very humid environment of this storm, the enhanced amount of cloud water available to be collected overwhelmed the reduction in precipitation efficiency associated with the aerosol-induced production of smaller droplets which led to a net increase in the conversion of cloud droplets to precipitation. Second, higher aerosol concentrations led to invigoration of convective updrafts which

Evaluation of kriging based surrogate models constructed from mesoscale computations of shock interaction with particles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sen, Oishik, E-mail: oishik-sen@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Gaul, Nicholas J., E-mail: nicholas-gaul@ramdosolutions.com [RAMDO Solutions, LLC, Iowa City, IA 52240 (United States); Choi, K.K., E-mail: kyung-choi@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Jacobs, Gustaaf, E-mail: gjacobs@sdsu.edu [Aerospace Engineering, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92115 (United States); Udaykumar, H.S., E-mail: hs-kumar@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

2017-05-01

Macro-scale computations of shocked particulate flows require closure laws that model the exchange of momentum/energy between the fluid and particle phases. Closure laws are constructed in this work in the form of surrogate models derived from highly resolved mesoscale computations of shock-particle interactions. The mesoscale computations are performed to calculate the drag force on a cluster of particles for different values of Mach Number and particle volume fraction. Two Kriging-based methods, viz. the Dynamic Kriging Method (DKG) and the Modified Bayesian Kriging Method (MBKG) are evaluated for their ability to construct surrogate models with sparse data; i.e. using the least number of mesoscale simulations. It is shown that if the input data is noise-free, the DKG method converges monotonically; convergence is less robust in the presence of noise. The MBKG method converges monotonically even with noisy input data and is therefore more suitable for surrogate model construction from numerical experiments. This work is the first step towards a full multiscale modeling of interaction of shocked particle laden flows.

Energy- and humidity-budget of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GESIMA by nesting into the regional climate model REMO; Energie- und Feuchtehaushalt im nichthydrostatischen Mesoskalamodell GESIMA bei Nestung in das Regionalklimamodell REMO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horneffer, K. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserphysik]|[Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Fachbereich 15 - Geowissenschaften

1997-12-31

The `Geesthacht Simulationsmodel of the Atmosphere` (GESIMA) was nested into the `Regional Climate Model` (REMO). Exemplary studies prove that the presented nesting scheme is suitable to resolve subscale phenomena in the regional climate model. Some results of simulations above the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea were presented. The mesoscale model GESIMA could now be used to analyze real synoptic weather situations. (orig.) [Deutsch] Das Geesthachter Simulationsmodell der Atmosphaere (GESIMA) wird in das Regionalklimamodell (REMO) genestet. Beispielhafte Untersuchungen zeigen, dass mit der genesteten Modellversion subskalige Effekte, die durch das grobe Raster des Regionalklimamodells fallen, aufgeloest werden. Dies wird anhand von Simulationen ueberprueft. Hauptuntersuchungsgegenstand ist die Insel Gotland in der Ostsee. Duch die Nestung kann das Mesoskalamodell fuer tatsaechliche synoptische Situationen eingesetzt werden. (orig.)

Weather and mortality: a 10 year retrospective analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rainer Sauerborn

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Background: A growing body of evidence points to the emission of greenhouse gases from human activity as a key factor in climate change. This in turn affects human health and wellbeing through consequential changes in weather extremes. At present, little is known about the effects of weather on the health of sub-Saharan African populations, as well as the related anticipated effects of climate change partly due to scarcity of good quality data. We aimed to study the association between weather patterns and daily mortality in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS area during 1999–2009. Methods: Meteorological data were obtained from a nearby weather station in the Nouna HDSS area and linked to mortality data on a daily basis. Time series Poisson regression models were established to estimate the association between the lags of weather and daily population-level mortality, adjusting for time trends. The analyses were stratified by age and sex to study differential population susceptibility. Results: We found profound associations between higher temperature and daily mortality in the Nouna HDSS, Burkina Faso. The short-term direct heat effect was particularly strong on the under-five child mortality rate. We also found independent coherent effects and strong associations between rainfall events and daily mortality, particularly in elderly populations. Conclusion: Mortality patterns in the Nouna HDSS appear to be closely related to weather conditions. Further investigation on cause-specific mortality, as well as on vulnerability and susceptibility is required. Studies on local adaptation and mitigation measures to avoid health impacts from weather and climate change is also needed to reduce negative effects from weather and climate change on population health in rural areas of the sub-Saharan Africa.

Performance tuning Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on Intel Xeon Phi

Science.gov (United States)

Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

2015-10-01

Next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, is a designed for dual use for forecasting and research. WRF offers multiple physics options that can be combined in any way. One of the physics options is radiance computation. The major source for energy for the earth's climate is solar radiation. Thus, it is imperative to accurately model horizontal and vertical distribution of the heating. Goddard solar radiative transfer model includes the absorption duo to water vapor,ozone, ozygen, carbon dioxide, clouds and aerosols. The model computes the interactions among the absorption and scattering by clouds, aerosols, molecules and surface. Finally, fluxes are integrated over the entire longwave spectrum.In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is familiar one to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discusses in this paper. The optimizations improved the performance of the original Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 2.2x. Furthermore, the same optimizations improved the performance of the Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on a dual socket configuration of eight core Intel Xeon E5-2670 CPUs by a factor of 2.1x compared to the original Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme code.

Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Lu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

User's guide to the weather model: a component of the western spruce budworm modeling system.

Science.gov (United States)

W. P. Kemp; N. L. Crookston; P. W. Thomas

1989-01-01

A stochastic model useful in simulating daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation developed by Bruhn and others has been adapted for use in the western spruce budworm modeling system. This document describes how to use the weather model and illustrates some aspects of its behavior.

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2015-05-21

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

Shadowing effects of offshore wind farms - an idealised mesoscale model study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

The study of wind farm (WF) interaction is expected to gain importance, since the offshore wind farm density will increase especially in the North Sea in the near future. We present preliminary results of wind farm interaction simulated by mesoscale models. We use the Explicit Wake Parametrisatio...

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) Science: Progress thus far and the next steps

Science.gov (United States)

Pallamraju, D.; Kozyra, J.; Basu, S.

Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System CAWSES is the current program of Scientific Committee for Solar Terrestrial Physics SCOSTEP for 2004 - 2008 The main aim of CAWSES is to bring together scientists from various nations to address the coupled and global nature of the Sun-Earth System phenomena Towards that end CAWSES provides a platform for international cooperation in observations data analysis theory and modeling There has been active international participation thus far with endorsement of the national CAWSES programs in some countries and many scientists around the globe actively volunteering their time in this effort The CAWSES Science Steering Group has organized the CAWSES program into five Themes for better execution of its science Solar Influence on Climate Space Weather Science and Applications Atmospheric Coupling Processes Space Climatology and Capacity Building and Education CAWSES will cooperate with International programs that focus on the Sun-Earth system science and at the same time compliment the work of programs whose scope is beyond the realm of CAWSES This talk will briefly review the science goals of CAWSES provide salient results from different Themes with emphasis on those from the Space Weather Theme This talk will also indicate the next steps that are being planned in this program and solicit inputs from the community for the science efforts to be carried out in the future

Analysis of Automated Aircraft Conflict Resolution and Weather Avoidance

Science.gov (United States)

Love, John F.; Chan, William N.; Lee, Chu Han

2009-01-01

This paper describes an analysis of using trajectory-based automation to resolve both aircraft and weather constraints for near-term air traffic management decision making. The auto resolution algorithm developed and tested at NASA-Ames to resolve aircraft to aircraft conflicts has been modified to mitigate convective weather constraints. Modifications include adding information about the size of a gap between weather constraints to the routing solution. Routes that traverse gaps that are smaller than a specific size are not used. An evaluation of the performance of the modified autoresolver to resolve both conflicts with aircraft and weather was performed. Integration with the Center-TRACON Traffic Management System was completed to evaluate the effect of weather routing on schedule delays.

Mesoscale kinematics derived from X-band Doppler radar observations of convective versus stratiform precipitation and comparison with GPS radiosonde profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Deshpande, Sachin M.; Dhangar, N.; Das, S. K.; Kalapureddy, M. C. R.; Chakravarty, K.; Sonbawne, S.; Konwar, M.

2015-11-01

Single Doppler analysis techniques known as velocity azimuth display (VAD) and volume velocity processing (VVP) are used to analyze kinematics of mesoscale flow such as horizontal wind and divergence using X-band Doppler weather radar observations, for selected cases of convective, stratiform, and shallow cloud systems near tropical Indian sites Pune (18.58°N, 73.92°E, above sea level (asl) 560 m) and Mandhardev (18.51°N, 73.85°E, asl 1297 m). The vertical profiles of horizontal wind estimated from radar VVP/VAD methods agree well with GPS radiosonde profiles, with the low-level jet at about 1.5 km during monsoon season well depicted in both. The vertical structure and temporal variability of divergence and reflectivity profiles are indicative of the dynamical and microphysical characteristics of shallow convective, deep convective, and stratiform cloud systems. In shallow convective systems, vertical development of reflectivity profiles is limited below 5 km. In deep convective systems, reflectivity values as large as 55 dBZ were observed above freezing level. The stratiform system shows the presence of a reflectivity bright band (~35 dBZ) near the melting level. The diagnosed vertical profiles of divergence in convective and stratiform systems are distinct. In shallow convective conditions, convergence was seen below 4 km with divergence above. Low-level convergence and upper level divergence are observed in deep convective profiles, while stratiform precipitation has midlevel convergence present between lower level and upper level divergence. The divergence profiles in stratiform precipitation exhibit intense shallow layers of "melting convergence" at 0°C level, near 4.5 km altitude, with a steep gradient on the both sides of the peak. The level of nondivergence in stratiform situations is lower than that in convective situations. These observed vertical structures of divergence are largely indicative of latent heating profiles in the atmosphere, an

Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

Science.gov (United States)

Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

Mesoscale convective system surface pressure anomalies responsible for meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast on June 13th, 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Wertman, Christina A; Yablonsky, Richard M; Shen, Yang; Merrill, John; Kincaid, Christopher R; Pockalny, Robert A

2014-11-25

Two destructive high-frequency sea level oscillation events occurred on June 13th, 2013 along the U.S. East Coast. Seafloor processes can be dismissed as the sources, as no concurrent offshore earthquakes or landslides were detected. Here, we present evidence that these tsunami-like events were generated by atmospheric mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating from inland to offshore. The USArray Transportable Array inland and NOAA tide gauges along the coast recorded the pressure anomalies associated with the MCSs. Once offshore, the pressure anomalies generated shallow water waves, which were amplified by the resonance between the water column and atmospheric forcing. Analysis of the tidal data reveals that these waves reflected off the continental shelf break and reached the coast, where bathymetry and coastal geometry contributed to their hazard potential. This study demonstrates that monitoring MCS pressure anomalies in the interior of the U.S. provides important observations for early warnings of MCS-generated tsunamis.

Flash propagation and inferred charge structure relative to radar-observed ice alignment signatures in a small Florida mesoscale convective system

Science.gov (United States)

Biggerstaff, Michael I.; Zounes, Zackery; Addison Alford, A.; Carrie, Gordon D.; Pilkey, John T.; Uman, Martin A.; Jordan, Douglas M.

2017-08-01

A series of vertical cross sections taken through a small mesoscale convective system observed over Florida by the dual-polarimetric SMART radar were combined with VHF radiation source locations from a lightning mapping array (LMA) to examine the lightning channel propagation paths relative to the radar-observed ice alignment signatures associated with regions of negative specific differential phase (KDP). Additionally, charge layers inferred from analysis of LMA sources were related to the ice alignment signature. It was found that intracloud flashes initiated near the upper zero-KDP boundary surrounding the negative KDP region. The zero-KDP boundary also delineated the propagation path of the lightning channel with the negative leaders following the upper boundary and positive leaders following the lower boundary. Very few LMA sources were found in the negative KDP region. We conclude that rapid dual-polarimetric radar observations can diagnose strong electric fields and may help identify surrounding regions of charge.

The acid and alkalinity budgets of weathering in the Andes-Amazon system: Insights into the erosional control of global biogeochemical cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Torres, Mark A.; West, A. Joshua; Clark, Kathryn E.; Paris, Guillaume; Bouchez, Julien; Ponton, Camilo; Feakins, Sarah J.; Galy, Valier; Adkins, Jess F.

2016-09-01

The correlation between chemical weathering fluxes and denudation rates suggests that tectonic activity can force variations in atmospheric pCO2 by modulating weathering fluxes. However, the effect of weathering on pCO2 is not solely determined by the total mass flux. Instead, the effect of weathering on pCO2 also depends upon the balance between 1) alkalinity generation by carbonate and silicate mineral dissolution and 2) sulfuric acid generation by the oxidation of sulfide minerals. In this study, we explore how the balance between acid and alkalinity generation varies with tectonic uplift to better understand the links between tectonics and the long-term carbon cycle. To trace weathering reactions across the transition from the Peruvian Andes to the Amazonian foreland basin, we measured a suite of elemental concentrations (Na, K, Ca, Mg, Sr, Si, Li, SO4, and Cl) and isotopic ratios (87Sr/86Sr and δ34S) on both dissolved and solid phase samples. Using an inverse model, we quantitatively link systematic changes in solute geochemistry with elevation to downstream declines in sulfuric acid weathering as well as the proportion of cations sourced from silicates. With a new carbonate-system framework, we show that weathering in the Andes Mountains is a CO2 source whereas foreland weathering is a CO2 sink. These results are consistent with the theoretical expectation that the ratio of sulfide oxidation to silicate weathering increases with increasing erosion. Altogether, our results suggest that the effect of tectonically-enhanced weathering on atmospheric pCO2 is strongly modulated by sulfide mineral oxidation.