WorldWideScience

Sample records for mesoscale meteorological models

  1. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Richard

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the RAPHAEL EU project, a series of past heavy precipitation events has been simulated with different meteorological models. Rainfall hindcasts and forecasts have been produced by four models in use at various meteorological services or research centres of Italy, Canada, France and Switzerland. The paper is focused on the comparison of the computed precipitation fields with the available surface observations. The comparison is carried out for three meteorological situations which lead to severe flashflood over the Toce-Ticino catchment in Italy (6599 km2 or the Ammer catchment (709 km2 in Germany. The results show that all four models reproduced the occurrence of these heavy precipitation events. The accuracy of the computed precipitation appears to be more case-dependent than model-dependent. The sensitivity of the computed rainfall to the boundary conditions (hindcast v. forecast was found to be rather weak, indicating that a flood forecasting system based upon a numerical meteo-hydrological simulation could be feasible in an operational context. Keywords: meteorological models, precipitation forecast

  2. Sensitivity of mesoscale model urban boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Flagg

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model with its coupled single-layer urban canopy model. Some model verification is presented using measurements from the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007 field campaign and additional sources. Case studies span from "neighborhood" (10 s ~308 m to very coarse (120 s ~3.7 km resolution. Small changes in scale can affect the classification of the surface, affecting both the local and grid-average meteorology. Results indicate high sensitivity in turbulent latent heat flux from the natural surface and sensible heat flux from the urban canopy. Small scale change is also shown to delay timing of a lake-breeze front passage and can affect the timing of local transition in static stability.

  3. Description of the University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, D. R.; Austin, G. L.

    2005-08-01

    The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) is a numerical weather prediction model of the Martian atmosphere that has been developed through the conversion of the Penn State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5). The global aspect of this model is self consistent, overlapping, and forms a continuous domain around the entire planet, removing the need to provide boundary conditions other than at initialisation, yielding independence from the constraint of a Mars general circulation model. The brief overview of the model will be given, outlining the key physical processes and setup of the model. Comparison between data collected from Mars Pathfinder during its 1997 mission and simulated conditions using GM4 have been performed. Diurnal temperature variation as predicted by the model shows very good correspondence with the surface truth data, to within 5 K for the majority of the diurnal cycle. Mars Viking Data is also compared with the model, with good agreement. As a further means of validation for the model, various seasonal comparisons of surface and vertical atmospheric structure are conducted with the European Space Agency AOPP/LMD Mars Climate Database. Selected simulations over regions of interest will also be presented.

  4. Meteorological predictions for Mars 2020 Exploration Rover high-priority landing sites throug MRAMS Mesoscale Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-García, Jorge; Rafkin, Scot C. R.

    2015-04-01

    The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is used to predict meteorological conditions that are likely to be encountered by the Mars 2020 Exploration Rover at several proposed landing sites during entry, descent, and landing (EDL). The meteorology during the EDL window at most of the sites is dynamic. The intense heating of the lower atmosphere drives intense thermals and mesoscale thermal circulations. Moderate mean winds, wind shear, turbulence, and vertical air currents associated with convection are present and potentially hazardous to EDL [1]. Nine areas with specific high-priority landing ellipses of the 2020 Rover, are investigated: NE Syrtis, Nili Fossae, Nili Fossae Carbonates, Jezero Crater Delta, Holden Crater, McLaughlin Crater, Southwest Melas Basin, Mawrth Vallis and East Margaritifer Chloride. MRAMS was applied to the landing site regions using nested grids with a spacing of 330 meters on the innermost grid that is centered over each landing site. MRAMS is ideally suited for this investigation; the model is explicitly designed to simulate Mars' atmospheric thermal circulations at the mesoscale and smaller with realistic, high-resolution surface properties [2, 3]. Horizontal wind speeds, both vertical profiles and vertical cross-sections wind speeds, are studied. For some landing sites simulations, two example configurations -including and not including Hellas basin in the mother domain- were generated, in order to study how the basin affects the innermost grids circulations. Afternoon circulations at all sites pose some risk entry, descent, and landing. Most of the atmospheric hazards are not evident in current observational data and general circulation model simulations and can only be ascertained through mesoscale modeling of the region. Decide where to go first and then design a system that can tolerate the environment would greatly minimize risk. References: [1] Rafkin, S. C. R., and T. I. Michaels (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108(E12

  5. Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

    2002-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

  6. Application of a mesoscale forecasting model (NMM) coupled to the CALMET to develop forecast meteorology to use with the CALPUFF air dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radonjic, Z.; Telenta, B.; Kirklady, J.; Chambers, D.; Kleb, H.

    2006-01-01

    An air quality assessment was undertaken as part of the Environmental Assessment for the Port Hope Area Initiative. The assessment predicted potential effects associated with the remediation efforts for historic low-level radioactive wastes and construction of Long-Term Waste Management Facilities (LTWMFs) for both the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects. A necessary element of air dispersion modelling is the development of suitable meteorological data. For the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects, a meteorological station was installed in close proximity to the location of the recommended LTWMF in Port Hope. The recommended location for the Port Granby LTWMF is approximately 10 km west of the Port Hope LTWMF. Concerns were raised regarding the applicability of data collected for the Port Hope meteorological station to the Port Granby Site. To address this concern, a new method for processing meteorological data, which coupled mesoscale meteorological forecasting data the U.S. EPA CALMET meteorological data processor, was applied. This methodology is possible because a new and advanced mesoscale forecasting modelling system enables extensive numerical calculations on personal computers. As a result of this advancement, mesoscale forecasting systems can now be coupled with the CALMET meteorological data processor and the CALPUFF air dispersion modelling system to facilitate wind field estimations and air dispersion analysis. (author)

  7. A Mesoscale Meteorological Model of Modified Land Cover to the Effect of Urban Heat Island in Jakarta, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale meteorological model of modified land cover to the effect of urban heat island (UHI in Jakarta was done. Although higher temperature in the city has been generally known, factors and issues that result in the increase of temperature particularly nighttime temperature over the city, however, are not well-understood. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is encountering urbanization problems foremost. The increasing demand of housing as well as rapid development of sky crapper building, market places and highway diminishes the vegetation which in turn trap heat in the troposphere throughout the year, particularly during dry season on June-August. The fifth-generation mesoscale meteorological model (MM5 was employed in the study. The model involves medium range forecast planetary boundary layer (MRF PBL scheme and land surface with two following parameters: i.e. roughness length over land and thermal inertia of land. These two parameters are chosen to enhance the characteristics of land surface. The simulation was carried out for 3 days on August 5-7, 2004 during dry season. The results showed that the simulation of surface temperature done by MM5 modified land cover described a good comparison to that of weather observation data. As a result, the effect of UHI was also well-observed during day-time. In addition, MM5 modified land cover simulation also illustrated a well-development of sea-breeze and country-breeze during mid-day and nighttime, respectively. However, long-term simulation is still required. Thus, daily diurnal cycles of air temperature and their differences can be well-observed in detail.

  8. Applicability of a high-resolution meso-scale meteorological model to a near-field-scale atmospheric dispersion problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takimoto, Hiroshi; Michioka, Takenobu; Sato, Ayumu; Sada, Koichi

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the feasibility of numerical simulations using a meso-scale meteorological model (NuWFAS: Numerical Weather Forecasting and Analysis System) for a near-field-scale atmospheric dispersion problem. A series of observation data from a field tracer experiment was used for the validation of the model. In the experiments, the tracer was released from a tower at a height of 95 m. The receptors were located on the arc lines with distances from the source of 400, 750, 1500, and 3000 m. The numerical simulations were implemented with two different minimum spatial resolutions of 100 m and 300 m. The meteorological fields were reproduced with a reasonable accuracy, showing the less dependency on the mesh sizes of the simulation. The dispersion fields were also less dependent on the spatial resolutions except for the stable atmospheric conditions. In stable conditions, the smaller spatial resolution leads to the higher surface concentrations due to the larger turbulent diffusions. In most cases, the predicted surface concentrations agreed with the observation within the factor of ten. However, the simulation tends to underestimate the surface concentrations in stable conditions, whereas it overestimates in unstable conditions. Our study revealed that the limitation of the model in estimating the turbulent diffusion coefficients for thermally stratified conditions is the one cause of these trends. The current model underestimates the influences of atmospheric stability, which is one of the most important factors for the near-field-scale atmospheric dispersion. (author)

  9. Modelling NOX concentrations through CFD-RANS in an urban hot-spot using high resolution traffic emissions and meteorology from a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Beatriz; Santiago, Jose Luis; Martilli, Alberto; Martin, Fernando; Borge, Rafael; Quaassdorff, Christina; de la Paz, David

    2017-08-01

    Air quality management requires more detailed studies about air pollution at urban and local scale over long periods of time. This work focuses on obtaining the spatial distribution of NOx concentration averaged over several days in a heavily trafficked urban area in Madrid (Spain) using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. A methodology based on weighted average of CFD simulations is applied computing the time evolution of NOx dispersion as a sequence of steady-state scenarios taking into account the actual atmospheric conditions. The inputs of emissions are estimated from the traffic emission model and the meteorological information used is derived from a mesoscale model. Finally, the computed concentration map correlates well with 72 passive samplers deployed in the research area. This work reveals the potential of using urban mesoscale simulations together with detailed traffic emissions so as to provide accurate maps of pollutant concentration at microscale using CFD simulations.

  10. Utilization of mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC as a meteorological forecast model in nuclear emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1997-01-01

    It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)

  11. Evaluation of meteorological fields generated by a prognostic mesoscale model using data collected during the 1993 GMAQS/COAST field study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lolk, N.K.; Douglas, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    In 1993, the US Interior Department's Minerals Management Service (MMS) sponsored the Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study (GMAQS). Its purpose was to assess potential impacts of offshore petrochemical development on ozone concentrations in nonattainment areas in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region as mandated by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The GMAQS comprised data collection, data analysis, and applications of an advanced photochemical air quality model, the variable-grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V), and a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model (SAIMM -- Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model) to simulate two ozone episodes that were captured during the summer field study. The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the SAIMM-simulated meteorological fields using graphical analysis that utilize the comprehensive GMAQS/COAST (Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study/Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas) database and to demonstrate the ability of the SAIMM to simulate the day-to-day variations in the evolution and structure of the gulf breeze and the mixed layer

  12. Large-eddy simulation of turbulent winds during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by coupling with a meso-scale meteorological simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, H.; Takemi, T.; Nagai, H.

    2015-06-01

    A significant amount of radioactive material was accidentally discharged into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant from 12 March 2011, which produced high contaminated areas over a wide region in Japan. In conducting regional-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations, the computer-based nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI-II developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency was used. Because this system is driven by a meso-scale meteorological (MM) model, it is difficult to reproduce small-scale wind fluctuations due to the effects of local terrain variability and buildings within a nuclear facility that are not explicitly represented in MM models. In this study, we propose a computational approach to couple an LES-based CFD model with a MM model for detailed simulations of turbulent winds with buoyancy effects under real meteorological conditions using turbulent inflow technique. Compared to the simple measurement data, especially, the 10 min averaged wind directions of the LES differ by more than 30 degrees during some period of time. However, distribution patterns of wind speeds, directions, and potential temperature are similar to the MM data. This implies that our coupling technique has potential performance to provide detailed data on contaminated area in the nuclear accidents.

  13. Mesoscale modeling of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, R. P.

    1993-03-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is presently developing a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model which is suitable for forecasting meso-Beta and gamma scale phenomena over complex terrain. The model will be delivered to the Army in 1997. However, until the non-hydrostatic model becomes operational, HOTMAC (Higher Order Turbulence Model for Atmospheric Circulation) will be used as an operational model in the U.S. Army's IMETS (Integrated METeorological System) to make a short-range (up to 24 hours) forecast of battlescale atmospheric phenomena. The U.S. Army is mainly concerned with meteorological conditions spatially within the area of 500 km x 500 km x 10 km or less and temporally within the period of 24 hours or less. The Army Research Laboratory's (ARL) prototype IMETS is currently receiving the forecast and analysis fields of meteorological variables produced from the U.S. Air Force Global Spectral Model (GSM) through the Automated Weather Distribution System (AWDS). In the near future, the Relocatable Window Model (RWM) output is expected to become available. The RWM is the Air Force's regional meso-alpha model similar to the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS). The U.S. Army is planning to use the output of GSM (or RWM) to initialize and assimilate into HOTMAC. HOTMAC has been used extensively at the ARL (formerly Atmospheric Sciences Laboratory), and simulate the evolution of locally forced circulations due to surface heating and cooling over meso-Beta and gamma scale areas. HOTMAC is numerically stable and easy to use and thus, suitable for operational use.

  14. LBA-ECO CD-03 Mesoscale Meteorological Data, Santarem Region, Para, Brazil: 1998-2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A mesoscale network has been set up in the Santarem region of Para, Brazil. This network consists of eight meteorological stations named Belterra, Km 117 (Fazenda...

  15. LBA-ECO CD-03 Mesoscale Meteorological Data, Santarem Region, Para, Brazil: 1998-2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: A mesoscale network has been set up in the Santarem region of Para, Brazil. This network consists of eight meteorological stations named Belterra, Km 117...

  16. Wake modelling combining mesoscale and microscale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Volker, Patrick; Prospathospoulos, J.

    2013-01-01

    parameterizations are demonstrated in theWeather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model (WRF) in an idealized atmospheric flow. The model framework is the Horns Rev I wind farm experiencing an 7.97 m/s wind from 269.4o. Three of the four parameterizations use thrust output from the CRESflow-NS microscale model......In this paper the basis for introducing thrust information from microscale wake models into mesocale model wake parameterizations will be described. A classification system for the different types of mesoscale wake parameterizations is suggested and outlined. Four different mesoscale wake....... The characteristics of the mesoscale wake that developed from the four parameterizations are examined. In addition the mesoscale model wakes are compared to measurement data from Horns Rev I. Overall it is seen as an advantage to incorporate microscale model data in mesocale model wake parameterizations....

  17. An automated data quality control procedure applied to a mesoscale meteorological network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranci, M.; Lussana, C.

    2009-09-01

    The mesoscale meteorological networks are composed by hundreds of stations providing continuous measurements of several meteorological variables. The large amount of observations collected at the data acquisition center must be checked using automatic Data Quality Control (DQC) tests. An automated DQC procedure describes the application of each individual test and the related decision making algorithms. The goal of a DQC procedure is to supply an efficient and powerful tool to the meteorological analyst. This work presents an automated DQC procedure and its application to the mesoscale meteorological network of the Lombardia's public weather service (ARPA). In particular, the DQC procedure is applied to hourly average observations of: temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and direction, global solar radiation, net radiation and hourly cumulated precipitation. The main idea of the DQC procedure is that each observation undergoes simultaneously many different tests and only once obtained all the results a decision about the observation quality is taken. The implemented tests are variable-dependent but can be classified as: plausible values checks, temporal and spatial consistency checks. Finally, a close inspection of the DQC procedure behavior can also be useful to individuate critical parameters that can be used for the network performance monitoring. The application of the DQC procedure to some case-studies is reported in order to show the characteristics of the overall procedure. The procedure is still under development, nevertheless the first results respect to its integration in the DQC operative activities are very encouraging.

  18. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation: Mesoscale to Microscale Wind Farm Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier [National Renewable Energy Centre (CENER), Sarriguren Spain; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio [National Renewable Energy Centre (CENER), Sarriguren Spain; Moriarty, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO USA; Churchfield, Matthew [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO USA; Kosović, Branko [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder CO USA; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Roskilde Denmark; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Lyngby Denmark; Hahmann, Andrea [Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Roskilde Denmark; Mirocha, Jeffrey D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA USA; Rife, Daran [DNV GL, San Diego CA USA

    2016-08-31

    The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150 m diameter and hub heights above 100 m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer structure with unique physics. This poses significant challenges to traditional wind engineering models that rely on surface-layer theories and engineering wind farm models to simulate the flow in and around wind farms. However, adopting an ABL approach offers the opportunity to better integrate wind farm design tools and meteorological models. The challenge is how to build the bridge between atmospheric and wind engineering model communities and how to establish a comprehensive evaluation process that identifies relevant physical phenomena for wind energy applications with modeling and experimental requirements. A framework for model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification is established to guide this process by a systematic evaluation of the modeling system at increasing levels of complexity. In terms of atmospheric physics, 'building the bridge' means developing models for the so-called 'terra incognita,' a term used to designate the turbulent scales that transition from mesoscale to microscale. This range of scales within atmospheric research deals with the transition from parameterized to resolved turbulence and the improvement of surface boundary-layer parameterizations. The coupling of meteorological and wind engineering flow models and the definition of a formal model evaluation methodology, is a strong area of research for the next generation of wind conditions assessment and wind farm and wind turbine design tools. Some fundamental challenges are identified in order to guide future research in this area.

  19. Wind-Farm Parametrisations in Mesoscale Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we compare three wind-farm parametrisations for mesoscale models against measurement data from the Horns Rev I offshore wind-farm. The parametrisations vary from a simple rotor drag method, to more sophisticated models. Additional to (4) we investigated the horizontal resolution...

  20. Current issues concerning the representativeness and utility of cloud drift winds in mesoscale meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Steven E.

    1985-01-01

    High-resolution cloud motion wind (CMW) data sets obtained from geostationary satellites for approximately the past decade have been used for the purpose of estimating mesoscale wind fields in various research studies. Yet there remains much controversy surrounding the proper interpretation and use of the resultant wind vector and kinematic fields. This paper is concerned with: (1) how representative are cloud draft winds of actual ambient air motions; and (2) what is the degree of practical usefulness of CMW fields for both mesoscale analysis and as input to numerical weather prediction models.

  1. Mesoscale covariance of transport and CO2 fluxes: Evidence from observations and simulations using the WRF-VPRM coupled atmosphere-biosphere model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmadov, R.; Gerbig, C.; Kretschmer, R.; Koerner, S.; Neininger, B.; Dolman, A.J.; Sarrat, C.

    2007-01-01

    We developed a modeling system which combines a mesoscale meteorological model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a diagnostic biospheric model, the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration (VPRM). The WRF-VPRM modeling system was designed to realistically simulate

  2. Detection of mesoscale zones of atmospheric instabilities using remote sensing and weather forecasting model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winnicki, I.; Jasinski, J.; Kroszczynski, K.; Pietrek, S.

    2009-04-01

    The paper presents elements of research conducted in the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy of the Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, concerning application of mesoscale models and remote sensing data to determining meteorological conditions of aircraft flight directly related with atmospheric instabilities. The quality of meteorological support of aviation depends on prompt and effective forecasting of weather conditions changes. The paper presents a computer module for detecting and monitoring zones of cloud cover, precipitation and turbulence along the aircraft flight route. It consists of programs and scripts for managing, processing and visualizing meteorological and remote sensing databases. The application was developed in Matlab® for Windows®. The module uses products of COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) mesoscale non-hydrostatic model of the atmosphere developed by the US Naval Research Laboratory, satellite images acquisition system from the MSG-2 (Meteosat Second Generation) of the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) and meteorological radars data acquired from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Warsaw, Poland. The satellite images acquisition system and the COAMPS model are run operationally in the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy. The mesoscale model is run on an IA64 Feniks multiprocessor 64-bit computer cluster. The basic task of the module is to enable a complex analysis of data sets of miscellaneous information structure and to verify COAMPS results using satellite and radar data. The research is conducted using uniform cartographic projection of all elements of the database. Satellite and radar images are transformed into the Lambert Conformal projection of COAMPS. This facilitates simultaneous interpretation and supports decision making process for safe execution of flights. Forecasts are based on horizontal

  3. Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    There have been very few mesoscale modelling studies of the Indian monsoon, with focus on the verification and intercomparison of the operational real time forecasts. With the exception of Das et al (2008), most of the studies in the literature are either the case studies of tropical cyclones and thunderstorms or the sensitivity ...

  4. Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection as Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Isabel; Wood, Robert; Fletcher, Jennifer

    Marine low clouds are key influencers of the climate and contribute significantly to uncertainty in model climate sensitivity due to their small scale and complex processes. Many low clouds occur in large-scale cellular patterns, known as open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC), which have significantly different radiative and microphysical properties. Investigating MCC development and meteorological controls will improve our understanding of their impacts on the climate. We conducted an examination of time-varying meteorological conditions associated with satellite-determined open and closed MCC. The spatial and temporal patterns of MCC clouds were compared with key meteorological control variables calculated from ERA-Interim Reanalysis to highlight dependencies and major differences. This illustrated the influence of environmental stability and surface forcing as well as the role of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAO, the movement of cold air from polar-regions across warmer waters) in MCC cloud formation. Such outbreaks are important to open MCC development and may also influence the transition from open to closed MCC. Our results may lead to improvements in the parameterization of cloudiness and advance the simulation of marine low clouds. National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant (DGE-1256082).

  5. Dust Storm Prediction with the Auckland Mars Mesoscale Model GM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, C.; Austin, G. L.

    2008-11-01

    The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) has been used to study the annual variation of the weather in two study sites in order to find a correlation between local atmospheric conditions and the occurrence of local dust storms.

  6. Extreme gust wind estimation using mesoscale modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries

    2014-01-01

    Currently, the existing estimation of the extreme gust wind, e.g. the 50-year winds of 3 s values, in the IEC standard, is based on a statistical model to convert the 1:50-year wind values from the 10 min resolution. This statistical model assumes a Gaussian process that satisfies the classical...... through turbulent eddies. This process is modeled using the mesoscale Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model. The gust at the surface is calculated as the largest winds over a layer where the averaged turbulence kinetic energy is greater than the averaged buoyancy force. The experiments have been...

  7. Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Isabel L.; Wood, Robert; Fletcher, Jennifer K.

    2017-11-01

    Mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) clouds occur in large-scale patterns over the ocean and have important radiative effects on the climate system. An examination of time-varying meteorological conditions associated with satellite-observed open and closed MCC clouds is conducted to illustrate the influence of large-scale meteorological conditions. Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAO) influence the development of open MCC clouds and the transition from closed to open MCC clouds. MCC neural network classifications on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2008 are collocated with Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data and ERA-Interim reanalysis to determine the radiative effects of MCC clouds and their thermodynamic environments. Closed MCC clouds are found to have much higher albedo on average than open MCC clouds for the same cloud fraction. Three meteorological control metrics are tested: sea-air temperature difference (ΔT), estimated inversion strength (EIS), and a MCAO index (M). These predictive metrics illustrate the importance of atmospheric surface forcing and static stability for open and closed MCC cloud formation. Predictive sigmoidal relations are found between M and MCC cloud frequency globally and regionally: negative for closed MCC cloud and positive for open MCC cloud. The open MCC cloud seasonal cycle is well correlated with M, while the seasonality of closed MCC clouds is well correlated with M in the midlatitudes and EIS in the tropics and subtropics. M is found to best distinguish open and closed MCC clouds on average over shorter time scales. The possibility of a MCC cloud feedback is discussed.

  8. Atmospheric CO2 modeling at the regional scale: an intercomparison of 5 meso-scale atmospheric models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sarrat, C.; Noilhan, J.; Dolman, A.J.; Gerbig, C.; Ahmadov, R.; Tolk, L.F.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Maat, ter H.W.; Pérez-Landa, G.; Donier, S.

    2007-01-01

    Atmospheric CO2 modeling in interaction with the surface fluxes, at the regional scale is developed within the frame of the European project CarboEurope-IP and its Regional Experiment component. In this context, five meso-scale meteorological models participate in an intercomparison exercise. Using

  9. Mathematical problems in meteorological modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Csomós, Petra; Faragó, István; Horányi, András; Szépszó, Gabriella

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the de...

  10. Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using DREAM - Validation against ETEX-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, J.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Christensen, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying...

  11. Initialization of a mesoscale model with satellite derived temperature profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalb, Michael W.

    1986-01-01

    The abilities of rawinsonde data and Tiros-N satellite derived temperature profile data to depict mesoscale precipitation accumulation are evaluated. Four mesoscale simulations using combinations of temperature, low-level wind, and low-level wind initialization were performed with the limited area mesoscale prediction system (LAMPS) model. Comparisons of the simulations with operational LFM forecast accumulations reveal that the LAMPS model simulations provide a better depiction of the observed precipitation accumulation than the LFM forecasts, and the satellite temperature profiles produce better mesoscale precipitation accumulation forecasts than the rawinsonde temperature data.

  12. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  13. Mesoscale, Sources and Models: Sources for Nitrogen in the Atmosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertel, O.

    1994-01-01

    Projektet Mesoscales, Sources and Models: Sources for Nitrogen in the Atmosphere er opdelt i 3 delprojekter: Sources - farmland, Sources - sea og Sources - biogenic nitrogen.......Projektet Mesoscales, Sources and Models: Sources for Nitrogen in the Atmosphere er opdelt i 3 delprojekter: Sources - farmland, Sources - sea og Sources - biogenic nitrogen....

  14. Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    occurs in ballistic impact, and accompanies amorphization in diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments (Yan et al., 2009). Fracture in boron carbide ...Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals by J. D. Clayton ARL-RP-440 May 2013...Ground, MD 21005-5069 ARL-RP-440 May 2013 Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals J. D. Clayton

  15. A Quality-Control-Oriented Database for a Mesoscale Meteorological Observation Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lussana, C.; Ranci, M.; Uboldi, F.

    2012-04-01

    In the operational context of a local weather service, data accessibility and quality related issues must be managed by taking into account a wide set of user needs. This work describes the structure and the operational choices made for the operational implementation of a database system storing data from highly automated observing stations, metadata and information on data quality. Lombardy's environmental protection agency, ARPA Lombardia, manages a highly automated mesoscale meteorological network. A Quality Assurance System (QAS) ensures that reliable observational information is collected and disseminated to the users. The weather unit in ARPA Lombardia, at the same time an important QAS component and an intensive data user, has developed a database specifically aimed to: 1) providing quick access to data for operational activities and 2) ensuring data quality for real-time applications, by means of an Automatic Data Quality Control (ADQC) procedure. Quantities stored in the archive include hourly aggregated observations of: precipitation amount, temperature, wind, relative humidity, pressure, global and net solar radiation. The ADQC performs several independent tests on raw data and compares their results in a decision-making procedure. An important ADQC component is the Spatial Consistency Test based on Optimal Interpolation. Interpolated and Cross-Validation analysis values are also stored in the database, providing further information to human operators and useful estimates in case of missing data. The technical solution adopted is based on a LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL and Php) system, constituting an open source environment suitable for both development and operational practice. The ADQC procedure itself is performed by R scripts directly interacting with the MySQL database. Users and network managers can access the database by using a set of web-based Php applications.

  16. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

  17. Modelling regional scale surface fluxes, meteorology and CO2 mixing ratios for the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolk, L.F.; Peters, W.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Groenendijk, M.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Dolman, A.J.

    2009-01-01

    We simulated meteorology and atmospheric CO2 transport over the Netherlands with the mesoscale model RAMS-Leaf3 coupled to the biospheric CO2 flux model 5PM. The results were compared with meteorological and CO2 observations, with emphasis on the tall tower of Cabauw. An analysis of the coupled

  18. The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

  19. Performance of WRF for Simulation of Mesoscale Meteorological Characteristics for Air Quality Assessment over Tropical Coastal City, Chennai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madala, Srikanth; Srinivas, C. V.; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

    2018-01-01

    The land-sea breezes (LSBs) play an important role in transporting air pollution from urban areas on the coast. In this study, the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used for predicting boundary layer features to understand the transport of pollution in different seasons over the coastal region of Chennai in Southern India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with two non-local [Yonsei University (YSU) and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2)] and three turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) closure [Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi and Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE)], planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes for simulating the thermodynamic structure, and low-level atmospheric flow in different seasons. Comparison of simulations with observations from a global positioning system (GPS) radiosonde, meteorological tower, automated weather stations, and Doppler weather radar (DWR)-derived wind data reveals that the characteristics of LSBs vary widely in different seasons and are more prominent during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (March-September) with large horizontal and vertical extents compared to the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The qualitative and quantitative results indicate that simulations with ACM2 followed by MYNN2 and YSU produced various features of the LSBs, boundary layer parameters and the thermo-dynamical structure in better agreement with observations than other tested physical parameterization schemes. Simulations revealed seasonal variation of onset time, vertical extent of LSBs, and mixed layer depth, which would influence the air pollution dispersion in different seasons over the study region.

  20. The mesoscale dispersion modeling system a simulation tool for development of an emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uliasz, M.

    1990-01-01

    The mesoscale dispersion modeling system is under continuous development. The included numerical models require further improvements and evaluation against data from meteorological and tracer field experiments. The system can not be directly applied to real time predictions. However, it seems to be a useful simulation tool for solving several problems related to planning the monitoring network and development of the emergency response system for the nuclear power plant located in a coastal area. The modeling system can be also applied to another environmental problems connected with air pollution dispersion in complex terrain. The presented numerical models are designed for the use on personal computers and are relatively fast in comparison with the similar mesoscale models developed on mainframe computers

  1. Multiscale Modeling of Mesoscale and Interfacial Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petsev, Nikolai Dimitrov

    With rapidly emerging technologies that feature interfaces modified at the nanoscale, traditional macroscopic models are pushed to their limits to explain phenomena where molecular processes can play a key role. Often, such problems appear to defy explanation when treated with coarse-grained continuum models alone, yet remain prohibitively expensive from a molecular simulation perspective. A prominent example is surface nanobubbles: nanoscopic gaseous domains typically found on hydrophobic surfaces that have puzzled researchers for over two decades due to their unusually long lifetimes. We show how an entirely macroscopic, non-equilibrium model explains many of their anomalous properties, including their stability and abnormally small gas-side contact angles. From this purely transport perspective, we investigate how factors such as temperature and saturation affect nanobubbles, providing numerous experimentally testable predictions. However, recent work also emphasizes the relevance of molecular-scale phenomena that cannot be described in terms of bulk phases or pristine interfaces. This is true for nanobubbles as well, whose nanoscale heights may require molecular detail to capture the relevant physics, in particular near the bubble three-phase contact line. Therefore, there is a clear need for general ways to link molecular granularity and behavior with large-scale continuum models in the treatment of many interfacial problems. In light of this, we have developed a general set of simulation strategies that couple mesoscale particle-based continuum models to molecular regions simulated through conventional molecular dynamics (MD). In addition, we derived a transport model for binary mixtures that opens the possibility for a wide range of applications in biological and drug delivery problems, and is readily reconciled with our hybrid MD-continuum techniques. Approaches that couple multiple length scales for fluid mixtures are largely absent in the literature, and

  2. Implementation of meso-scale radioactive dispersion model for GPU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sunarko [National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN), Jakarta (Indonesia). Nuclear Energy Assessment Center; Suud, Zaki [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia). Physics Dept.

    2017-05-15

    Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Method (LPDM) is applied to model atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material in a meso-scale of a few tens of kilometers for site study purpose. Empirical relationships are used to determine the dispersion coefficient for various atmospheric stabilities. Diagnostic 3-D wind-field is solved based on data from one meteorological station using mass-conservation principle. Particles representing radioactive pollutant are dispersed in the wind-field as a point source. Time-integrated air concentration is calculated using kernel density estimator (KDE) in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Parallel code is developed for GTX-660Ti GPU with a total of 1 344 scalar processors using CUDA. A test of 1-hour release discovers that linear speedup is achieved starting at 28 800 particles-per-hour (pph) up to about 20 x at 14 4000 pph. Another test simulating 6-hour release with 36 000 pph resulted in a speedup of about 60 x. Statistical analysis reveals that resulting grid doses are nearly identical in both CPU and GPU versions of the code.

  3. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  4. Analysis of Atmospheric Mesoscale Models for Entry, Descent and Landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kass, D. M.; Schofield, J. T.; Michaels, T. I.; Rafkin, S. C. R.; Richardson, M. I.; Toigo, A. D.

    2003-01-01

    Each Mars Exploration Rover (MER) is sensitive to the martian winds encountered near the surface during the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) process. These winds are strongly influenced by local (mesoscale) conditions. In the absence of suitable wind observations, wind fields predicted by martian mesoscale atmospheric models have been analyzed to guide landing site selection. Two different models were used, the MRAMS model and the Mars MM5 model. In order to encompass both models and render their results useful to the EDL engineering team, a series of statistical techniques were applied to the model results. These analyses cover the high priority landing sites during the expected landing times (1200 to 1500 local time). The number of sites studied is limited by the computational and analysis cost of the mesoscale models.

  5. Mesoscale modeling study of the oceanographic conditions off the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mesoscale modeling; coastal upwelling; India. ... This model is part of a model and data assimilation system capable of describing the ocean circulation and variability in the Indian Ocean and its predictability in ... Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Edvard Griegs Vei 3a, N-5059 Solheimsviken, Norway.

  6. Modeling air-quality in complex terrain using mesoscale and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  7. Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  8. Meso-scale modeling of a forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Arnqvist, Johan; Bergström, Hans

    2014-01-01

    Meso-scale models are increasingly used for estimating wind resources for wind turbine siting. In this study, we investigate how the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model performs using standard model settings in two different planetary boundary layer schemes for a forested landscape and how...

  9. Strain in the mesoscale kinetic Monte Carlo model for sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Tikare, V.

    2014-01-01

    Shrinkage strains measured from microstructural simulations using the mesoscale kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model for solid state sintering are discussed. This model represents the microstructure using digitized discrete sites that are either grain or pore sites. The algorithm used to simulate dens...

  10. Mesoscale modeling of solute precipitation and radiation damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yongfeng [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schwen, Daniel [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ke, Huibin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Bai, Xianming [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hales, Jason [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes the low length scale effort during FY 2014 in developing mesoscale capabilities for microstructure evolution in reactor pressure vessels. During operation, reactor pressure vessels are subject to hardening and embrittlement caused by irradiation-induced defect accumulation and irradiation-enhanced solute precipitation. Both defect production and solute precipitation start from the atomic scale, and manifest their eventual effects as degradation in engineering-scale properties. To predict the property degradation, multiscale modeling and simulation are needed to deal with the microstructure evolution, and to link the microstructure feature to material properties. In this report, the development of mesoscale capabilities for defect accumulation and solute precipitation are summarized. Atomic-scale efforts that supply information for the mesoscale capabilities are also included.

  11. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temper- ature, specific humidity ...

  12. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 117; Issue 5. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors. Someshwar Das Raghavendra Ashrit Gopal Raman Iyengar Saji Mohandas M Das Gupta John P George E N Rajagopal Surya Kanti Dutta. Volume 117 ...

  13. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vautard, R.; Moran, M.D.; Solazzo, E.; Gilliam, R.C.; Matthias, V.; Bianconi, R.; Chemel, C.; Ferreira, J.; Geyer, B.; Hansen, A.B.; Jericevic, A.; Prank, M.; Segers, A.; Silver, J.D.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Rao, S.T.; Galmarini, S.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate regional air pollution simulation relies strongly on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulation used to drive the air quality model. The framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), which involved a large international community of modeling

  14. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, A.J.; Vautard, R.; Moran, M.D.; Solazzo, E.; Gilliam, R.C.; Matthias, V.; Bianconi, R.; Chemel, C.; Ferreira, J.; Geyer, B.; Hansen, A.B.; Jericevic, A.; Prank, M.; Silver, J.D.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Rao, S.T.; Galmarini, S.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate regional air pollution simulation relies strongly on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulation used to drive the air quality model. The framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), which involved a large international community of modeling

  15. Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, X.G..; Badger, J.

    2012-06-15

    The objective of this project is to develop new methodologies for extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Three independent methodologies have been developed. All three methodologies are targeted at confronting and solving the problems and drawbacks in existing methods for extreme wind estimation regarding the use of modeled data (coarse resolution, limited representation of storms) and measurements (short period and technical issues). The first methodology is called the selective dynamical downscaling method. For a chosen area, we identify the yearly strongest storms through global reanalysis data at each model grid point and run a mesoscale model, here the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, for all storms identified. Annual maximum winds and corresponding directions from each mesoscale grid point are then collected, post-processed and used in Gumbel distribution to obtain the 50-year wind. The second methodology is called the statistical-dynamical downscaling method. For a chosen area, the geostrophic winds at a representative grid point from the global reanalysis data are used to obtain the annual maximum winds in 12 sectors for a period of 30 years. This results in 360 extreme geostrophic winds. Each of the 360 winds is used as a stationary forcing in a mesoscale model, here KAMM. For each mesoscale grid point the annual maximum winds are post-processed and used to a Gumbel fit to obtain the 50-year wind. For the above two methods, the post-processing is an essential part. It calculates the speedup effects using a linear computation model (LINCOM) and corrects the winds from the mesoscale modeling to a standard condition, i.e. 10 m above a homogeneous surface with a roughness length 5 cm. Winds of the standard condition can then be put into a microscale model to resolve the local terrain and roughness effects around particular turbine sites. By converting both the measured and modeled winds to the same surface conditions through the post

  16. Development of a 1D canopy module to couple mesoscale meteorogical model with building energy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauree, Dasaraden; Kohler, Manon; Blond, Nadège; Clappier, Alain

    2013-04-01

    computational time. To simulate the processes at the micro-scale (building) as well as at the meso-scale (city and surroundings), it is necessary to connect these two types of models. It is proposed here to develop a canopy module able to act as an interface between these two scales. The meso-scale model provides the meteorological parameters to the micro-scale model via the canopy module. The micro-scale model then calculates the influence of the different type of surfaces on the variables and gives its back through the module to the meso-scale model. By simulating in a better way the interactions between the atmosphere and the urban surfaces, the model will enhance the estimation of the energy use by building. The tool produced by this research could be coupled in the future with an urban dynamics model to optimize urban planning in order to improve the sustainability of cities.

  17. Wind profiler data in a mesoscale experiment from a meteorological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipser, E. J.; Augustine, J.; Cunning, J.

    1986-01-01

    During May and June of 1985, the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment of STORM-Central (OK PRE-STORM) was carried out, with the major objectives of learning more about mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and gaining experience in the use of new sensing systems and measurement strategies that will improve the design of STORM-Central. Three 50-MHz wind profilers were employed in a triangular array with sides about 275 km. It is far too soon to report any results of this effort, for it has barely begun. The purpose here is to show some examples of the data, some of the surrounding conventional data, and to discuss some of the issues important to meteorologists in evaluating the contribution of the profiler data. The case of 10 to 11 June 1985, featuring a major squall line system which crossed the dense observing network from northwest to southeast, passing the Liberal site about 2230 GMT/10 June, the McPherson site about 0100 GMT/11 June, and Wichita about 0300 GMT/11 June is discussed. Radar and satellite data show that the system was growing rapidly when it passed Liberal, and was large and mature when it passed through McPherson and Wichita. The radar depiction of the system during this stage is given, with the McPherson site in the intense convective echoes near the leading edge at 01 GMT and in the stratiform precipitation at 03 GMT. The profiler wind data for a 9-hour period encompassing the squall line passage at each site are given.

  18. A mesoscale boundary layer forecast model and its use for air pollution emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daggupaty, S.M.; Sahota, H.

    1991-01-01

    A three dimensional boundary layer forecast model was modified with recent boundary layer parameterizations and numerical schemes. It has also been modified as a potential tool for emergency response. It is being applied for numerical experimentation over a lake shore environment. The model is a primitive equation hydrostatic model with a terrain following coordinate in the vertical. The model is capable of reproducing topographically induced and transitional terrain induced (water - land - forest etc.) mesoscale circulations. The model is applied over a 150 km by 150 km area surrounding the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station on Lake Ontario. The model results are encouraging and have been compared with the meso-meteorological network data specially collected during 1988 and 1989. We hope to continue the study with a greater variety of synoptic situations and to improve the physics of the model

  19. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  20. Meso-scale wind variability. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Larsen, X.; Vincent, C.; Soerensen, P.; Pinson, P.; Trombe, P.-J.; Madsen, H.; Cutululis, N.

    2011-11-15

    The project has aimed to characterize mesoscale meteorological phenomenon for the North Sea and the Inner Danish waters, and additionally aimed on improving the predictability and quality of the power production from offshore windfarms. The meso-scale meteorology has been characterized with respect to the physical processes, climatology, spectral characteristics and correlation properties based on measurements from wind farms, satellite data (SAR) and mesoscale numerical modeling (WRF). The abilities of the WRF model to characterize and predict relevant mesoscale phenomenon has been proven. Additionally application of statistical forecasting, using a Markov switching approach that can be related to the meteorological conditions, to analyze and short term predict the power production from an offshore wind farms have been documented. Two PhD studies have been conducted in connection with the project. The project has been a cooperative project between Risoe DTU, IMM DTU, DONG Energy, Vattenfall and VESTAS. It is registered as Energinet.dk, project no. 2007-1-7141. (Author)

  1. Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool for meteorological and air quality simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool compares model predictions to observed data from various meteorological and air quality observation networks to help evaluate meteorological and air quality simulations.

  2. Mesoscale modeling of metal-loaded high explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bdzil, John Bohdan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lieberthal, Brandon [UNIV OF ILLINOIS; Srewart, Donald S [UNIV OF ILLINOIS

    2010-01-01

    We describe a 3D approach to modeling multi-phase blast explosive, which is primarily condensed explosive by volume with inert embedded particles. These embedded particles are uniform in size and placed on the array of a regular lattice. The asymptotic theory of detonation shock dynamics governs the detonation shock propagation in the explosive. Mesoscale hydrodynamic simulations are used to show how the particles are compressed, deformed, and accelerated by the high-speed detonation products flow.

  3. Climate change, hydrological extremes and a multifractal analysis of a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gires, A.; Schertzer, D.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Royer, J. F.; Lovejoy, S.; Lac, C.; Ducrocq, V.

    2009-04-01

    The IPPC 4th report emphasizes the question of scales and the necessity to obtain in climate scenarios much finer resolutions for hydrological processes to assess the time evolution of the hydrological extremes. The present gap between climatological and hydrological scales led to consider downscaling techniques, which are statically or/and physically based. In particular, one may exploit the scaling properties of the precipitation to downscale it either numerically by stochastic subgrid modeling or theoretically with the help of a few scaling exponents (Royer et al. C.R. Geoscience, 340, 2008). We first discuss how these techniques can be validated with the help of a multifractal analysis of a mesoscale model. We then present the results obtained the Meso-NH model (Meteo-France/CNRM and Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France), a model which has been rather extensively used for mesoscale research and is partly included (its physical part) in the AROME model, the new operational meteorological model at 2.5 km resolution on France. These results are compared with the one obtained analyzing radar data.

  4. Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The systematic error in the 850 hPa temperature indicates that largely the WRF model forecasts feature warm bias and the MM5 model forecasts feature cold bias. Features common to all the three models include warm bias over northwest India and cold bias over southeast peninsula. The 850 hPa specific humidity forecast ...

  5. Evaluation of a mesoscale dispersion modelling tool during the CAPITOUL experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lac, C.; Bonnardot, F.; Connan, O.; Camail, C.; Maro, D.; Hebert, D.; Rozet, M.; Pergaud, J.

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric transport and dispersion were investigated during the CAPITOUL campaign using measurements of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer. Six releases of SF6 tracer were performed (March 9-11 and July 1-3, 2004) in the same suburban area of Toulouse conurbation, during the Intensive Observing Periods (IOP) of CAPITOUL. Concentration data were collected both at ground-level along axes perpendicular to the wind direction (at distances ranging between 280 m and 5000 m from the release point), and above the ground at 100 m and 200 m height using aircraft flights. Meteorological conditions were all associated with daytime anticyclonic conditions with weak winds and convective clear and cloudy boundary layers. A meso-scale dispersion modelling system, PERLE, developed at Meteo-France for environmental emergencies in case of atmospheric accidental release, was evaluated in terms of meteorology and dispersion, for the different tracer experiments, in its operational configuration. PERLE is based on the combination of the non-hydrostatic meso-scale MESO-NH model, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, and the Lagrangian particle model SPRAY. The statistical meteorological evaluation includes two sets of simulations with initialisation from ECMWF or ALADIN. The meteorological day-to-day error statistics show fairly good Meso-NH predictions, in terms of wind speed, wind direction and near-surface temperature. A strong sensitivity to initial fields concerns the surface fluxes, crucial for dispersion, with an excessive drying of the convective boundary layer with ALADIN initial fields, leading to an overprediction of surface sensible heat fluxes. A parameterization of dry and shallow convection according to the Eddy-Diffusivity-Mass-Flux (EDMF) approach (Pergaud et al. 2008) allows an efficient mixing in the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) and improves significantly the wind fields. A statistical evaluation of the dispersion prediction was then performed and shows a

  6. Modeling and interpreting mesoscale network dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khambhati, Ankit N; Sizemore, Ann E; Betzel, Richard F; Bassett, Danielle S

    2017-06-20

    Recent advances in brain imaging techniques, measurement approaches, and storage capacities have provided an unprecedented supply of high temporal resolution neural data. These data present a remarkable opportunity to gain a mechanistic understanding not just of circuit structure, but also of circuit dynamics, and its role in cognition and disease. Such understanding necessitates a description of the raw observations, and a delineation of computational models and mathematical theories that accurately capture fundamental principles behind the observations. Here we review recent advances in a range of modeling approaches that embrace the temporally-evolving interconnected structure of the brain and summarize that structure in a dynamic graph. We describe recent efforts to model dynamic patterns of connectivity, dynamic patterns of activity, and patterns of activity atop connectivity. In the context of these models, we review important considerations in statistical testing, including parametric and non-parametric approaches. Finally, we offer thoughts on careful and accurate interpretation of dynamic graph architecture, and outline important future directions for method development. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. for WRF Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    8

    has been hypothesized that the inclusion of observational data may improve the initial condition for model integration. Thus, in the second experiment, i.e. with data assimilation (DA), the conventional and non-conventional observations available from. Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and scatterometer wind fields ...

  8. A Meteorological Distribution System for High Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    Spatially distributed terrestrial models generally require atmospheric forcing data on horizontal grids that are of higher resolution than available meteorological data. Furthermore, the meteorological data collected may not necessarily represent the area of interest's meteorological variability. To address these deficiencies, computationally efficient and physically realistic methods must be developed to take available meteorological data sets (e.g., meteorological tower observations) and generate high-resolution atmospheric-forcing distributions. This poster describes MicroMet, a quasi-physically-based, but simple meteorological distribution model designed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 5-m to 1-km horizontal grid increments) meteorological data distributions required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The model produces distributions of the seven fundamental atmospheric forcing variables required to run most terrestrial models: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, incoming solar radiation, incoming longwave radiation, and precipitation. MicroMet includes a preprocessor that analyzes meteorological station data and identifies and repairs potential data deficiencies. The model uses known relationships between meteorological variables and the surrounding area (primarily topography) to distribute those variables over any given landscape. MicroMet performs two kinds of adjustments to available meteorological data: 1) when there are data at more than one location, at a given time, the data are spatially interpolated over the domain using a Barnes objective analysis scheme, and 2) physical sub-models are applied to each MicroMet variable to improve its realism at a given point in space and time with respect to the terrain. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) will be used as example Micro

  9. Sparse canopy parameterizations for meteorological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Meteorological models for numerical weather prediction or climate simulation require a description of land surface exchange processes. The degree of complexity of these land-surface parameterization schemes - or SVAT's - that is necessary for accurate model predictions, is yet unclear. Also, the

  10. The role of mesoscale meteorology in modulating the (222)Rn concentrations in Huelva (Spain)--impact of phosphogypsum piles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Ceballos, M A; Vargas, A; Arnold, D; Bolívar, J P

    2015-07-01

    The combined analysis of (222)Rn activity concentrations and mesoscale meteorological conditions at Huelva city (Spain) was addressed in this study to understand the potential impact of phosphogypsum piles on the (222)Rn activity concentrations registered at this area. Hourly mean data from April 2012 to February 2013 registered at two sampling sites (Huelva city and in the background station of El Arenosillo, located 27 km to the south-east) have been used in the study. The results of the present study showed a large difference in mean radon concentrations between the two stations during the sampling period, 6.3 ± 0.4 Bq m(-3) at Huelva and 3.0 ± 0.2 Bq m(-3) at El Arenosillo. The analysis has demonstrated that hourly (222)Rn concentrations at Huelva city above 22 Bq m(-3), with nocturnal peaks up to 50 Bq/m(3), mainly coincided with the occurrence of a pure sea-land breeze cycle. Mesoscale circulations in this region are mainly characterized by two patterns of sea-land breeze, pure and non-pure, with the phosphosypsum piles directly upstream (south) of the city during the afternoon on pure sea-breeze days. The difference between mean (222)Rn activity concentrations at Huelva city were 9.9 ± 1.5 Bq m(-3) for the pure pattern and 3.3 ± 0.5 Bq m(-3) for the non-pure pattern, while in the background station concentrations were 3.9 ± 0.4 Bq m(-3) and 2.8 ± 0.4 Bq m(-3) respectively. Considering these large differences, a detailed analysis of composites and case studies of representative sea-land breeze cycles of both types and their impact on (222)Rn activity concentration was performed. The results suggested that the presence of the phosphogypsum piles was necessary in order to justify the high (222)Rn activity concentrations observed at Huelva compared with the background station in the afternoons on pure sea breeze days (1.5-2.0 Bq m(-3)). On the other hand, large night time differences between the two sites on these days were

  11. Rotational and divergent kinetic energy in the mesoscale model ALADIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Blažica

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Kinetic energy spectra from the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model ALADIN with horizontal resolution 4.4 km are split into divergent and rotational components which are then compared at horizontal scales below 300 km and various vertical levels. It is shown that about 50% of kinetic energy in the free troposphere in ALADIN is divergent energy. The percentage increases towards 70% near the surface and in the upper troposphere towards 100 hPa. The maximal percentage of divergent energy is found at stratospheric levels around 100 hPa and at scales below 100 km which are not represented by the global models. At all levels, the divergent energy spectra are characterised by shallower slopes than the rotational energy spectra, and the difference increases as horizontal scales become larger. A very similar vertical distribution of divergent energy is obtained by using the standard ALADIN approach for the computation of spectra based on the extension zone and by applying detrending approach commonly used in mesoscale NWP community.

  12. Application of Prognostic Mesoscale Modeling in the Southeast United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    A prognostic model is being used to provide regional forecasts for a variety of applications at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Emergency response dispersion models available at SRS use the space and time-dependent meteorological data provided by this model to supplement local and regional observations. Output from the model is also used locally to aid in forecasting at SRS, and regionally in providing forecasts of the potential time and location of hurricane landfall within the southeast United States

  13. LES-based generation of high-frequency fluctuation in wind turbulence obtained by meteorological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao

    2017-11-01

    The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.

  14. Meso-scale modeling of irradiated concrete in test reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giorla, A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Vaitová, M. [Czech Technical University, Thakurova 7, 166 29 Praha 6 (Czech Republic); Le Pape, Y., E-mail: lepapeym@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Štemberk, P. [Czech Technical University, Thakurova 7, 166 29 Praha 6 (Czech Republic)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A meso-scale finite element model for irradiated concrete is developed. • Neutron radiation-induced volumetric expansion is a predominant degradation mode. • Confrontation with expansion and damage obtained from experiments is successful. • Effects of paste shrinkage, creep and ductility are discussed. - Abstract: A numerical model accounting for the effects of neutron irradiation on concrete at the mesoscale is detailed in this paper. Irradiation experiments in test reactor (Elleuch et al., 1972), i.e., in accelerated conditions, are simulated. Concrete is considered as a two-phase material made of elastic inclusions (aggregate) subjected to thermal and irradiation-induced swelling and embedded in a cementitious matrix subjected to shrinkage and thermal expansion. The role of the hardened cement paste in the post-peak regime (brittle-ductile transition with decreasing loading rate), and creep effects are investigated. Radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) of the aggregate cause the development and propagation of damage around the aggregate which further develops in bridging cracks across the hardened cement paste between the individual aggregate particles. The development of damage is aggravated when shrinkage occurs simultaneously with RIVE during the irradiation experiment. The post-irradiation expansion derived from the simulation is well correlated with the experimental data and, the obtained damage levels are fully consistent with previous estimations based on a micromechanical interpretation of the experimental post-irradiation elastic properties (Le Pape et al., 2015). The proposed modeling opens new perspectives for the interpretation of test reactor experiments in regards to the actual operation of light water reactors.

  15. Wind atlas for Egypt: Measurements, micro- and mesoscale modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, N.G.; Hansen, J.C.; Badger, J.

    2006-01-01

    with SRTM 3 elevation data and satellite imagery, provide the means for immediate WAsP wind resource assessments anywhere in Egypt. In addition to the very high wind resource in the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, the wind atlas has discovered a large region in the Western Desert with a fairly high resource......The results of a comprehensive, 8-year wind resource assessment programme in Egypt are presented. The objective has been to provide reliable and accurate wind atlas data sets for evaluating the potential wind power output from large electricity-producing wind turbine installations. The regional...... wind climates of Egypt have been determined by two independent methods: a traditional wind atlas based on observations from more than 30 stations all over Egypt, and a numerical wind atlas based on long-term reanalysis data and a mesoscale model (KAMM). The mean absolute error comparing the two methods...

  16. A mesoscale model study of atmospheric circulations for the northern hemisphere summer on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Daniel, Jr.

    The Penn-State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model was adapted for mesoscale simulations of the Martian atmosphere (the OSU MMM5). The NASA Ames Mars GCM provides initial and boundary conditions. High-resolution maps for albedo, thermal inertia and topography were developed from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data; these baseline maps are processed to appropriate resolutions for use in the GCM and the mesoscale model. The OSU MMM5 is validated in Chapter 2 by comparing with surface meteorology observed at the Viking Lander 1 (VL1) and Mars Pathfinder (MPF) landing sites. How the diurnal cycle of surface pressure (the surface pressure tide) is affected by boundaries, domain/nest choices and the resolution of surface properties (topography, albedo and thermal inertia) is examined. Chapter 2 additionally shows the influence of regional slope flows in the diurnal surface pressure cycle for certain locations on Mars. Building on the methods of Chapter 2, Chapter 3 describes the northern midsummer polar circulation and the circulations (both large and small scale) that influence it. Improvements to the model for these studies include: the topographical gradient is now considered when computing surface insolation, and the thermal inertia maps and model initialization are improved for high latitudes; this yields a realistic simulation of surface temperatures for the North Pole Residual Cap (NPRC) and the surrounding region. The midsummer polar circulation is vigorous, with abundant and dynamically important transient eddies. The preferred locations of transients varies significantly during this study, between L s = 120 and L s = 150. At L s = 120 transient circulations are seen primarily along the NPRC margin, consistently producing strong flow over the residual cap (~15 m/s). By L s = 135, transient eddies form a "storm track" between the northern slopes of Tharsis and the NPRC. By L s = 150, the circulation is becoming strong and winter-like. These transient eddies may be important in

  17. EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

    1999-01-01

    Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

  18. Influence of Satellite-Based Heterogeneous Vegetation Momentum Roughness on Mesoscale Model Dynamics During IHOP 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasinski, Michael; Eastman, Joseph; Borak, Jordan

    2010-01-01

    The sensitivity of mesoscale weather prediction model to a vegetation roughness initialization is investigated for the south central United States. Three different roughness databases are employed: i) a control or standard lookup table roughness that is a function only of land cover type, ii) a spatially heterogeneous roughness database previously derived using a physically based procedure and MODIS imagery, and iii) a MODIS climatologic roughness database that possesses the same spatial heterogeneity as (i) but with mean land class values from (ii). The model used is the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) coupled to the Community Land Model within the Land Information System (LIS). For each simulation, a statistical comparison is made between modeled results and ground observations from meteorological stations within the Oklahoma mesonet and surrounding region during IHOP20O2. A sensitivity analysis on the impact the MODIS-based roughness fields is also made through a time-series intercomparison of temperature bias, probability of detection (POD), average wind speed, boundary layer height, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) the results that, for the current replacement of the standard land-cover type based roughness values with the satellite-derived fields statistically improves model performance for most of the observed variables. Further, the satellite-based roughness enhances the surface wind speed, PBL height and TKE production on the order of 3 to l0 percent, with a lesser effect over grassland and cropland domains, and the greater effect over mixed land cover domains

  19. Numerical modelling of two HMX-based plastic-bonded explosives at the mesoscale

    OpenAIRE

    Handley, Caroline A.

    2011-01-01

    Mesoscale models are needed to predict the effect of changes to the microstructure of plastic-bonded explosives on their shock initiation and detonation behaviour. This thesis describes the considerable progress that has been made towards a mesoscale model for two HMX-based explosives PBX9501 and EDC37. In common with previous work in the literature, the model is implemented in hydrocodes that have been designed for shock physics and detonation modelling. Two relevant physics effects, heat co...

  20. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claveau, J.; Ramaroson, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  1. Down-scaling wind energy resource from mesoscale to local scale by nesting and data assimilation with a CFD model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duraisamy Jothiprakasam, Venkatesh

    2014-01-01

    The development of wind energy generation requires precise and well-established methods for wind resource assessment, which is the initial step in every wind farm project. During the last two decades linear flow models were widely used in the wind industry for wind resource assessment and micro-siting. But the linear models inaccuracies in predicting the wind speeds in very complex terrain are well known and led to use of CFD, capable of modeling the complex flow in details around specific geographic features. Mesoscale models (NWP) are able to predict the wind regime at resolutions of several kilometers, but are not well suited to resolve the wind speed and turbulence induced by the topography features on the scale of a few hundred meters. CFD has proven successful in capturing flow details at smaller scales, but needs an accurate specification of the inlet conditions. Thus coupling NWP and CFD models is a better modeling approach for wind energy applications. A one-year field measurement campaign carried out in a complex terrain in southern France during 2007-2008 provides a well-documented data set both for input and validation data. The proposed new methodology aims to address two problems: the high spatial variation of the topography on the domain lateral boundaries, and the prediction errors of the mesoscale model. It is applied in this work using the open source CFD code Code-Saturne, coupled with the mesoscale forecast model of Meteo-France (ALADIN). The improvement is obtained by combining the mesoscale data as inlet condition and field measurement data assimilation into the CFD model. Newtonian relaxation (nudging) data assimilation technique is used to incorporate the measurement data into the CFD simulations. The methodology to reconstruct long term averages uses a clustering process to group the similar meteorological conditions and to reduce the number of CFD simulations needed to reproduce 1 year of atmospheric flow over the site. The assimilation

  2. Mesoscale modelling of atmospheric CO2 across Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansø, Anne Sofie

    2016-01-01

    % is taken up by the global oceans, due to under-saturation of CO2 in the surface waters, while another 33 % is taken up by the terrestrial biosphere, via photosynthesis. In order to estimate the effects of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO2 more accurately in the future, it is essential to understand....... Until the present study, no area-specific representation had been developed for the surface water pCO2 of the Baltic Sea and Danish inner waters. A surface water monthly climatology was implemented in the mesoscale modelling framework, and further improved with a near coastal climatology for the Danish...... inner waters. In the modelling framework, the heterogeneous land surfaces of Denmark were assessed by means of a detailed land surface classifications map and the inclusion of a high temporal and spatial resolution biosphere model. Available measurements of surface water pCO2, from stationary sites...

  3. Release of potential instability by mesoscale triggering - An objective model simulation. [in precipitation numerical weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D. A.

    1978-01-01

    The effects of mesoscale triggering on organized nonsevere convective cloud systems in the High Plains are considered. Two experiments were conducted to determine if a one-dimensional quasi-time dependent model could (1) detect soundings which were sensitive to mesoscale triggering, and (2) discriminate between cases which had mesoscale organized convection and those with no organized convection. The MESOCU model was used to analyze the available potential instability and thermodynamic potential for cloud growth. It is noted that lifting is a key factor in the release of available potential instability on the High Plains.

  4. Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

  5. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sorensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project 'Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure' (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Oresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  6. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project "Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure" (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  7. Operational mesoscale atmospheric dispersion prediction using a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An operational atmospheric dispersion prediction system is implemented on a cluster supercomputer for Online Emergency Response at the Kalpakkam nuclear site.This numerical system constitutes a parallel version of a nested grid meso-scale meteorological model MM5 coupled to a random walk particle dispersion ...

  8. STATISTICAL MECHANICS MODELING OF MESOSCALE DEFORMATION IN METALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anter El-Azab

    2013-04-08

    The research under this project focused on a theoretical and computational modeling of dislocation dynamics of mesoscale deformation of metal single crystals. Specifically, the work aimed to implement a continuum statistical theory of dislocations to understand strain hardening and cell structure formation under monotonic loading. These aspects of crystal deformation are manifestations of the evolution of the underlying dislocation system under mechanical loading. The project had three research tasks: 1) Investigating the statistical characteristics of dislocation systems in deformed crystals. 2) Formulating kinetic equations of dislocations and coupling these kinetics equations and crystal mechanics. 3) Computational solution of coupled crystal mechanics and dislocation kinetics. Comparison of dislocation dynamics predictions with experimental results in the area of statistical properties of dislocations and their field was also a part of the proposed effort. In the first research task, the dislocation dynamics simulation method was used to investigate the spatial, orientation, velocity, and temporal statistics of dynamical dislocation systems, and on the use of the results from this investigation to complete the kinetic description of dislocations. The second task focused on completing the formulation of a kinetic theory of dislocations that respects the discrete nature of crystallographic slip and the physics of dislocation motion and dislocation interaction in the crystal. Part of this effort also targeted the theoretical basis for establishing the connection between discrete and continuum representation of dislocations and the analysis of discrete dislocation simulation results within the continuum framework. This part of the research enables the enrichment of the kinetic description with information representing the discrete dislocation systems behavior. The third task focused on the development of physics-inspired numerical methods of solution of the coupled

  9. High resolution topography and land cover databases for wind resource assessment using mesoscale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barranger, Nicolas; Stathopoulos, Christos; Kallos, Georges

    2013-04-01

    In wind resource assessment, mesoscale models can provide wind flow characteristics without the use of mast measurements. In complex terrain, local orography and land cover data assimilation are essential parameters to accurately simulate the wind flow pattern within the atmospheric boundary layer. State-of-the-art Mesoscale Models such as RAMS usually provides orography and landuse data with of resolution of 30s (about 1km). This resolution is necessary for solving mesocale phenomena accurately but not sufficient when the aim is to quantitatively estimate the wind flow characteristics passing over sharp hills or ridges. Furthermore, the abrupt change in land cover characterization is nor always taken into account in the model with a low resolution land use database. When land cover characteristics changes dramatically, parameters such as roughness, albedo or soil moisture that can highly influence the Atmospheric Boundary Layer meteorological characteristics. Therefore they require to be accurately assimilated into the model. Since few years, high resolution databases derived from satellite imagery (Modis, SRTM, LandSat, SPOT ) are available online. Being converted to RAMS requirements inputs, an evaluation of the model requires to be achieved. For this purpose, three new high resolution land cover and two topographical databases are implemented and tested in RAMS. The analysis of terrain variability is performed using basis functions of space frequency and amplitude. Practically, one and two dimension Fast Fourier Transform is applied to terrain height to reveal the main characteristics of local orography according to the obtained wave spectrum. By this way, a comparison between different topographic data sets is performed, based on the terrain power spectrum entailed in the terrain height input. Furthermore, this analysis is a powerful tool in the determination of the proper horizontal grid resolution required to resolve most of the energy containing spectrum

  10. Modeling of Mesoscale Variability in Biofilm Shear Behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallab Barai

    Full Text Available Formation of bacterial colonies as biofilm on the surface/interface of various objects has the potential to impact not only human health and disease but also energy and environmental considerations. Biofilms can be regarded as soft materials, and comprehension of their shear response to external forces is a key element to the fundamental understanding. A mesoscale model has been presented in this article based on digitization of a biofilm microstructure. Its response under externally applied shear load is analyzed. Strain stiffening type behavior is readily observed under high strain loads due to the unfolding of chains within soft polymeric substrate. Sustained shear loading of the biofilm network results in strain localization along the diagonal direction. Rupture of the soft polymeric matrix can potentially reduce the intercellular interaction between the bacterial cells. Evolution of stiffness within the biofilm network under shear reveals two regimes: a initial increase in stiffness due to strain stiffening of polymer matrix, and b eventual reduction in stiffness because of tear in polymeric substrate.

  11. Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

    2018-01-01

    A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

  12. The Explicit Wake Parametrisation V1.0: a wind farm parametrisation in the mesoscale model WRF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. H. Volker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We describe the theoretical basis, implementation, and validation of a new parametrisation that accounts for the effect of large offshore wind farms on the atmosphere and can be used in mesoscale and large-scale atmospheric models. This new parametrisation, referred to as the Explicit Wake Parametrisation (EWP, uses classical wake theory to describe the unresolved wake expansion. The EWP scheme is validated for a neutral atmospheric boundary layer against filtered in situ measurements from two meteorological masts situated a few kilometres away from the Danish offshore wind farm Horns Rev I. The simulated velocity deficit in the wake of the wind farm compares well to that observed in the measurements, and the velocity profile is qualitatively similar to that simulated with large eddy simulation models and from wind tunnel studies. At the same time, the validation process highlights the challenges in verifying such models with real observations.

  13. Examination of atmospheric dynamic model's performance over complex terrain under temporally changing synoptic meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-01-01

    The mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, a submodel of the numerical atmospheric dispersion model named PHYSIC, was improved and its performance was examined in a coastal area with a complex terrain. To introduce temporally changing synoptic meteorological conditions into the model, the initial and boundary conditions were improved. Moreover, land surface temperature calculations were modified to apply the model to snow-covered areas. These improvements worked effectively in the model simulation of four series of the observations during winter and summer in 1992. The model successfully simulated the wind fields and its temporal variations under the condition of strong westerlies and a land and sea breeze. Limitation of model's performance caused by the temporal and spatial resolutions of input data was also discussed. (author)

  14. Mesoscale Modelling of Block Copolymers under External Fields.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyakhova, Kateryna S.

    2005-01-01

    A remarkable feature of block copolymer systems is their ability to self-assemble into a variety of ordered structures with domain sizes in the mesoscale range. One of the open questions is the dynamics of structure formation, which can be highly dependent on external fields often present in

  15. High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Leela R.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

    2015-01-01

    use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

  16. Range-Specific High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup: Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Leela R.

    2014-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, and ground processing at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. Some of these other boundaries include the Indian River breeze front, Banana River breeze front, outflows from previous convection, horizontal convective rolls, convergence lines from other inland bodies of water such as Lake Okeechobee, the trailing convergence line from convergence of sea breeze fronts due to the shape of Cape Canaveral, frictional convergence lines from the islands in the Bahamas, convergence lines from soil moisture differences, convergence lines from cloud shading, and others. All these subtle weak boundary interactions often make forecasting of operationally important weather very difficult at KSC/CCAFS during the convective season (May-Oct). These convective processes often build quickly, last a short time (60 minutes or less), and occur over small distances, all of which also poses a significant challenge to the local forecasters who are responsible for issuing weather advisories, watches, and warnings. Surface winds during the transition seasons of spring and fall pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to aid in their decision making. Both the ER and WFF would benefit greatly from high-resolution mesoscale model output to better forecast a variety of unique weather

  17. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph G.

    2009-01-01

    For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

  18. Applying horizontal diffusion on pressure surface to mesoscale models on terrain-following coordinates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Ching-Teng Lee; Yongxin Zhang; Yucheng Song; Ming-Chin Wu; Yi-Leng Chen; Kevin Kodama; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional spectral model and mesoscale spectral model (NCEP RSM/MSM) use a spectral computation on perturbation. The perturbation is defined as a deviation between RSM/MSM forecast value and their outer model or analysis value on model sigma-coordinate surfaces. The horizontal diffusion used in the models applies...

  19. An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) During the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hart, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...

  20. Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

    2016-04-01

    1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and

  1. Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolman, A.J.; Ashby, M.; Kabat, P. [DLO, Wageningen (Netherlands). Winand Staring Centre; Silva Dias, M.A. [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil); Calvet, J.-C.; Delire, C. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Tahara, A.S.; Nobre, C.A. [INPE/CPTEC, Cachoeira Paulista (Brazil). Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estidps Climaticos; Fisch, G.A. [Centro Tecnico Aerospacial, Sao Jose dos Campos (Brazil)

    1999-08-01

    As part of the preparation for the large-scale biosphere atmosphere experiment in amazonia, a mesoscale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to subcontinental scales in the dry season. Mesoscale models were run in 1D and 3D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture) poor. The models` underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area. The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the mesoscale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric mesoscale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role. (orig.) 39 refs.

  2. A shallow convection parameterization for the non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaman, N.L.; Kain, J.S.; Deng, A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A shallow convection parameterization suitable for the Pennsylvannia State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) is being developed at PSU. The parameterization is based on parcel perturbation theory developed in conjunction with a 1-D Mellor Yamada 1.5-order planetary boundary layer scheme and the Kain-Fritsch deep convection model.

  3. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    . However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties......The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario...... of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological obser-vations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observa-tional data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced...

  4. Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Olita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data with an analysis (AN assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM. Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to

  5. Investigating the Propagation of Meteorological Model Uncertainty for Tracer Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Coto, I.; Ghosh, S.; Karion, A.; Martin, C.; Mueller, K. L.; Prasad, K.; Whetstone, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    The North-East Corridor project aims to use a top-down inversion method to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the urban areas of Washington DC and Baltimore at approximately 1km2 resolutions. The aim of this project is to help establish reliable measurement methods for quantifying and validating GHG emissions independently of the inventory methods typically used to guide mitigation efforts. Since inversion methods depend strongly on atmospheric transport modeling, analyzing the uncertainties on the meteorological fields and their propagation through the sensitivities of observations to surface fluxes (footprints) is a fundamental step. To this end, six configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 3.8 were used to generate an ensemble of meteorological simulations. Specifically, we used 4 planetary boundary layer parameterizations (YSU, MYNN2, BOULAC, QNSE), 2 sources of initial and boundary conditions (NARR and HRRR) and 1 configuration including the building energy parameterization (BEP) urban canopy model. The simulations were compared with more than 150 meteorological surface stations, a wind profiler and radiosondes for a month (February) in 2016 to account for the uncertainties and the ensemble spread for wind speed, direction and mixing height. In addition, we used the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT) to derive the sensitivity of 12 hypothetical observations to surface emissions (footprints) with each WRF configuration. The footprints and integrated sensitivities were compared and the resulting uncertainties estimated.

  6. Mesoscale model simulation of low level equatorial winds over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jess/118/04/0295-0307. Keywords. Equatorial region; low-level meteorological parameters; biomass burning; haze; southeast Asia; Sarawak. Abstract. The large-scale vegetation fires instigated by the local farmers during the dry period of the major El Ni˜no event in 1997 can be considered ...

  7. Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Dolman

    Full Text Available As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture poor. The models' underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.

    Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions · Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meterology

  8. Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Dolman

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture poor. The models' underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions · Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meterology

  9. Phase Behavior of Semiflexible-Flexible Diblock Copolymer Melt: Insight from Mesoscale Modeling.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beránek, P.; Posel, Zbyšek

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 8 (2016), s. 7832-7835 ISSN 1533-4880 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LH12020 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : conformational asymmetry * dissipative particle dynamics * mesoscale modeling Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.483, year: 2016

  10. Shallow convection over land: a mesoscale modelling study based on idealized WRF experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; Heerwaarden, van C.C.; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.

    2009-01-01

    A shallow cumulus over land redistributes heat and moisture in the boundary layer, but is also important on larger scales, because it can trigger severe convection events. Due to its small (102 - 103 m) spatial scale, this feature is defined as a sub-grid process in mesoscale models. The goal of

  11. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Land surface characteristics; high resolution mesoscale model; Uttarakhand rainfall; monsoon season. .... radiation flux at the. Analysis for Research and surface (SW). Applications (MERRA). Downward longwave radiation flux at the surface (LW). Rain rate (PCP) ...... cal diffusion package with an explicit treatment of.

  12. Identification of Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) phenomenon with image of Himawari 8 Satellite and WRF ARW Model on Bangka Island (Case Study: 7-8 February 2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldy, Nanda; Saragih, Immanuel J. A.; Wandala Putra, Agie; Redha Nugraheni, Imma; Wijaya Yonas, Banu

    2017-12-01

    Based on monitoring on 7th and 8th February 2016 there has been a flood that occurred due to heavy rainfall in a long time in some areas of Bangka Island. Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) is one type of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Previous research on MCC mentions that MCC can cause heavy rain for a long time. This study aims to identify the phenomenon of MCC in Bangka Island both in the satellite imagery and the output of the model. In addition, this study was also conducted to determine the effect of MCC on the weather conditions in Bangka Island. The study area in this research is Bangka Island with Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station as the centre of research. The data used in this research are FNL (Final Analysis) data from http://rda.ucar.edu/, Satellite Image of Himawari-8 IR1 Channel from BMKG, and meteorological observation data (synoptic and radiosonde) from Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station. The FNL data is simulated using the WRF-ARW model, verified using observation data and then visualized using GrADS. The results of the analysis of Himawari-8 satellite image data showed that two MCCs occurred on 7th and 8th February 2016 on Bangka Island and the MCC was nocturnal, which appeared at night which then continued until extinction in the morning the next day. In a peak cloud temperature review with the coordinates of Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station (-2,163 N 106,137 E) when 1st MCC and 2nd MCC events ranged from -60°C to -80°C. The result of WRF-ARW model output analysis shows that MCC area has high humidity value and positive vertical velocity value which indicates the potential of heavy rain for a long time.

  13. Use of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processors of decision support systems to improve the meteorological input of atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalets, I.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J.G.

    2003-01-01

    ) and the variant of method of successive corrections called 'Iteration to optimal solution' (IOS). Though these methods are famous and were previously widely used in the meteorological synoptic- and meso-scale prognostic and diagnostic models, they were modified for the needs of the MPP of the RODOS system that acts as local (micro)-scale diagnostic model. The central point in that modification was the combination of approaches encountered in the literature for determination of the 'weighting coefficient' with the above-mentioned methods. Special attention was given at the adequate use of both observed and prognostic data (cloud cover, net radiation, sensible heat flux, mixing height) to calculate the parameters required by the ADMs of the RODOS system, such as stability category, net radiation, Monin-Obukhov length, friction velocity, mixing height. As the MPP is in fact a diagnostic model, the developed methodological approach is a 3-dimensional data assimilation (3DDA), i.e., observations are used only on the same time level as the NWP data to produce the state of the meteorological fields at that time moment. The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) meteorological database has been used for evaluation of the developed methodology and software. The model results agree well with the measurements and the calculated values of the meteorological variables exhibit realistic behaviour, always lying in physically allowable bounds. IOS procedure can be effectively used for the local-scale calculations (domain size =∼ 100 km), while 0I method is better for larger scale calculations (domain size > 300 km). fig. 1 (author)

  14. Meteorological fluid dynamics asymptotic modelling, stability and chaotic atmospheric motion

    CERN Document Server

    Zeytounian, Radyadour K

    1991-01-01

    The author considers meteorology as a part of fluid dynamics. He tries to derive the properties of atmospheric flows from a rational analysis of the Navier-Stokes equations, at the same time analyzing various types of initial and boundary problems. This approach to simulate nature by models from fluid dynamics will be of interest to both scientists and students of physics and theoretical meteorology.

  15. Assessment of the impact of the meteorological meso-scale circulation on air quality in arid subtropical region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charabi, Yassine; Al-Bulooshi, Ali; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2013-03-01

    In this paper, COSMO numerical weather prediction model is used to simulate land-sea breeze circulation in the north coast of Oman and to analyze the variability of the PBL depth. Typical summer day 1st August 2009 and winter day 1st January 2009 were simulated and verified by surface observations. The COSMO model was initialized using the German global model which runs as 40 km resolution and 40 vertical layers. The simulations show differences in the onset, strength, and inland penetration of the sea breeze. The high sea-land thermal contrast in the summer season induces earlier onset and progression of the sea breeze with larger horizontal and vertical extents. The summer and winter inland penetration is simulated around 150 and 65 km, respectively. The PBL depth was defined from the verticals profiles of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). The simulated PBL height varied at 1,600 m in summer and 700 m in the winter case. These results are in general in good agreement with the simulations of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Data Assimilation System (NCEP-GDAS) model. The dispersive ability of the atmosphere was tested through the vertical mixing coefficient (VMC) generated by NCEP-GDAS simulations. The VMC during the summer simulated case is approximately four times larger than the respective one during the winter case. Consequently, during the advection of winter sea breeze, a shallow dome less than 100 m is shaped and forms an obstacle to the air-pollutant dispersion.

  16. High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Lazarus, Steven M.; Splitt, Michael E.; Crosson, William L.; Lapenta, William M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2008-01-01

    The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts

  17. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  18. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    ’ dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent......The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely...... uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble...

  19. Stochastic models for some meteorological outcomes in Niger Delta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, stochastic models based on autoregressive integrated moving average models of various orders and its seasonalized versions are presented, with a view to identifying the optimal model for some meteorological outcomes in some cities in Niger Delta region of Nigeria, using Normalized Bayesian Information ...

  20. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

    2013-08-01

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  1. Mesoscale model parameterizations for radiation and turbulent fluxes at the lower boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somieski, F.

    1988-11-01

    A radiation parameterization scheme for use in mesoscale models with orography and clouds has been developed. Broadband parameterizations are presented for the solar and the terrestrial spectral ranges. They account for clear, turbid or cloudy atmospheres. The scheme is one-dimensional in the atmosphere, but the effects of mountains (inclination, shading, elevated horizon) are taken into account at the surface. In the terrestrial band, grey and black clouds are considered. Furthermore, the calculation of turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat and momentum at an inclined lower model boundary is described. Surface-layer similarity and the surface energy budget are used to evaluate the ground surface temperature. The total scheme is part of the mesoscale model MESOSCOP. (orig.) With 3 figs., 25 refs [de

  2. The Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM; Das Karlsruher Atmosphaerische Mesoskalige Modell KAMM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adrian, G. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Umwelt und Technik (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimaforschung]|[Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.). (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimaforschung

    1998-01-01

    The applications of the KAMM model range from real-time simulations over the analysis of mesoscale phenomena and the development of parametrizations to describing climatology. In the course of time, wishes emerged to change essential parts of the original model concept, calling for substantial reprogramming; so it was decided to entirely redraft the dynamic core of KAMM and to program it from the beginning including the parallelization of the code. The paper describes the basics of the new model core. (orig./KW) [Deutsch] Der Anwendungsbereich des KAMM-Modells erstreckt sich von Echtzeitsimulationen, ueber Analyse mesoskaliger Phaenomene, Entwicklung von Parametrisierungen bis hin zur beschreibenden Klimatologie. Weil im Laufe der Entstehungszeit wesentliche Aenderungswuensche des urspruenglichen Konzeptes entstanden sind, die eine Neuprogrammierung in wesentlichen Teilen erforderlich erscheinen lassen, wurde entschieden, den dynamischen Kern von KAMM voellig neu zu gestalten und bei der Programmierung eine Parallelisierung des Codes von Anfang an mit einzubeziehen. Die Grundlagen dieses neuen Modellkernes werden vorgestellt. (orig./KW)

  3. Combining Machine Learning and Mesoscale Modeling for Atmospheric Releases Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervone, G.; Franzese, P.; Ezber, Y.; Boybeyi, Z.

    2007-12-01

    In applications such as homeland security and hazards response, it is necessary to know in real time which areas are most at risk from a potentially harmful atmospheric pollutant. Using high resolution remote sensing measurements and atmospheric mesoscale numerical models, it is possible to detect and study the transport and dispersion of particles with great accuracy, and to determine the ground concentrations which might pose a threat to people and properties. Satellite observations from different sensors must be fused together to compensate for different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions and data availability. Such observations are used to initialize and validate atmospheric mesoscale models, which can provide accurate estimates of ground concentrations. Such numerical models are, however, usually slow due to the complex nature of the computations, and do not provide real time answers. We will define probability maps of risks by running several atmospheric mesoscale and T&D simulations spanning the climatological input conditions of an entire year, observed using high resolution remote sensing instruments. Such maps provide an immediate risk assessment area associated with a given source location. If a release indeed occurs, the computed risk maps can be used for first assessment and rapid response. We analyze the output of the mesoscale model runs using machine learning algorithms to find characteristic patterns which relate potential risk areas with atmospheric parameters which can be observed using remote sensing instruments and ground measurements. Therefore, when a release occurs, it is possible to give a quick hazard assessment without running a time consuming model, but by comparing the current atmospheric conditions with those associated with each identified risk area. The offline learning provides knowledge that can later be used to protect people and properties.

  4. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, Robert C.; Hogrefe, Christian; Godowitch, James M.; Napelenok, Sergey; Mathur, Rohit; Rao, S. Trivikrama

    2015-12-01

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is important to understand how uncertainties in these inputs affect the simulated concentrations. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. Most studies explore this uncertainty by running different meteorological models or the same model with different physics options and in some cases combinations of different meteorological and air quality models. While these have been shown to be useful techniques in some cases, we present a technique that leverages the initial condition perturbations of a weather forecast ensemble, namely, the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system to drive the four-dimensional data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a key focus being the response of ozone chemistry and transport. Results confirm that a sizable spread in WRF solutions, including common weather variables of temperature, wind, boundary layer depth, clouds, and radiation, can cause a relatively large range of ozone-mixing ratios. Pollutant transport can be altered by hundreds of kilometers over several days. Ozone-mixing ratios of the ensemble can vary as much as 10-20 ppb or 20-30% in areas that typically have higher pollution levels.

  5. Mapping Offshore Winds Around Iceland Using Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar and Mesoscale Model Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Badger, Merete; Nawri, Nikolai

    2015-01-01

    The offshore wind climate in Iceland is examined based on satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR), coastal meteorological station measurements, and results from two atmospheric model data sets, HARMONIE and NORA10. The offshore winds in Iceland are highly influenced by the rugged coastline. Lee...... effects, gap flow, coastal barrier jets, and atmospheric gravity waves are not only observed in SAR, but are also modeled well from HARMONIE. Offshore meteorological observations are not available, but wind speed and wind direction measurements from coastal meteorological masts are found to compare well...

  6. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol–meteorology interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2013-07-01

    terrain and subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g., lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging, limitations in the physical parameterizations (e.g., shortwave radiation, cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget parameterizations (e.g., snow-related processes, subgrid-scale surface roughness elements, and urban canopy/heat island treatments and CO2 domes. While the use of finer grid resolutions of 0.125° and 0.025° shows some improvements for WS10, WD10, Precip, and some mesoscale events (e.g., strong forced convection and heavy precipitation, it does not significantly improve the overall statistical performance for all meteorological variables except for Precip. The WRF/Chem simulations with and without aerosols show that aerosols lead to reduced net shortwave radiation fluxes, 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, planetary boundary layer (PBL height, and precipitation and increase aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei, cloud optical depth, and cloud droplet number concentrations over most of the domain. These results indicate a need to further improve the model representations of the above parameterizations as well as aerosol–meteorology interactions at all scales.

  7. Mesoscale model to select the ideal location for new vineyard plantations in the Rioja qualified denomination of origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Cámara, E; Blanco, J; Jiménez, E; Saenz-Díez, J C; Rioja, J

    2014-01-01

    La Rioja is the region where the top rated wines from Spain come from and also the origin of one of the most prestigious wines in the world. It is worldwide recognized, not only for the quality of the vine, but also for the many factors involved in the process that are controllable by the farmer, such as fertilizers, irrigation, etc. Likewise, there are other key factors, which cannot be controlled that play, however, a crucial role in the quality of the wine, such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall. This research is focused on two of these factors: temperature and irradiation. The objective of this paper is to be able to recognize these factors, so as to ensure a proper decision criterion when selecting the best location for new vineyard plantations. To achieve this objective, a mesoscale model MM5 is used, and its performance is assessed and compared using different parameters, from the grid resolution to the physical parameterization of the model. Finally, the study evaluates the impact of the different parameterizations and options for the simulation of meteorological variables particularly relevant when choosing new vineyard sites (rainfall frequency, temperature, and sun exposure).

  8. Mesoscale Model to Select the Ideal Location for New Vineyard Plantations in the Rioja Qualified Denomination of Origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Martínez-Cámara

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La Rioja is the region where the top rated wines from Spain come from and also the origin of one of the most prestigious wines in the world. It is worldwide recognized, not only for the quality of the vine, but also for the many factors involved in the process that are controllable by the farmer, such as fertilizers, irrigation, etc. Likewise, there are other key factors, which cannot be controlled that play, however, a crucial role in the quality of the wine, such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall. This research is focused on two of these factors: temperature and irradiation. The objective of this paper is to be able to recognize these factors, so as to ensure a proper decision criterion when selecting the best location for new vineyard plantations. To achieve this objective, a mesoscale model MM5 is used, and its performance is assessed and compared using different parameters, from the grid resolution to the physical parameterization of the model. Finally, the study evaluates the impact of the different parameterizations and options for the simulation of meteorological variables particularly relevant when choosing new vineyard sites (rainfall frequency, temperature, and sun exposure.

  9. Ensemble filter based estimation of spatially distributed parameters in a mesoscale dust model: experiments with simulated and real data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Khade

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF is used to estimate the erodibility fraction parameter field in a coupled meteorology and dust aerosol model (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS over the Sahara desert. Erodibility is often employed as the key parameter to map dust source. It is used along with surface winds (or surface wind stress to calculate dust emissions. Using the Saharan desert as a test bed, a perfect model Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs with 40 ensemble members, and observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD, the EAKF is shown to recover correct values of erodibility at about 80% of the points in the domain. It is found that dust advected from upstream grid points acts as noise and complicates erodibility estimation. It is also found that the rate of convergence is significantly impacted by the structure of the initial distribution of erodibility estimates; isotropic initial distributions exhibit slow convergence, while initial distributions with geographically localized structure converge more quickly. Experiments using observations of Deep Blue AOD retrievals from the MODIS satellite sensor result in erodibility estimates that are considerably lower than the values used operationally. Verification shows that the use of the tuned erodibility field results in better predictions of AOD over the west Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula.

  10. Sensitivity study of the generation of mesoscale eddies in a numerical model of Hawaii islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kersalé

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The oceanic circulation around the Hawaiian archipelago is characterized by a complex circulation and the presence of mesoscale eddies west of the islands. These eddies typically develop and persist for weeks to several months in the area during persistent trade winds conditions. A series of numerical simulations on the Hawaiian region has been done in order to examine the relative importance of wind, inflow current and topographic forcing on the general circulation and the generation of eddies. Moreover, numerical cyclonic eddies are compared with the one observed during the cruise E-FLUX (Dickey et al., 2008. Our study demonstrates the need for all three forcings (wind, inflow current and topography to reproduce the known oceanic circulation. In particular, the cumulative effect plays a key role on the generation of mesoscale eddies. The wind-stress-curl, via the Ekman pumping mechanism, has also been identified as an important mechanism upon the strength of the upwelling in the lee of the Big Island of Hawaii. In order to find the best setup of a regional ocean model, we compare more precisely numerical results obtained using two different wind databases: COADS and QuikSCAT. The main features of the ocean circulation in the area are well reproduced by our model forced by both COADS and QuickSCAT climatologies. Nevertheless, significant differences appear in the levels of kinetic energy and vorticity. The wind-forcing spatial resolution clearly affects the way in which the wind momentum feeds the mesoscale phenomena. The higher the resolution, the more realistic the ocean circulation. In particular, the simulation forced by QuikSCAT wind data reproduces well the observed energetic mesoscale structures and their hydrological characteristics and behaviors.

  11. Modeling of atmospheric disturbances in meteorological pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouthemy, P; Benveniste, A

    1984-05-01

    This paper describes a model-based approach to perform tracking of extratropical atmospheric disturbances from a sequence of satellite cloud-cover images. More precisely, it deals with the estimation of motion of these spiral-shaped cloud systems (both translational and rotational motion), and the measurement of the evolution of their shape. Tracking is achieved by recording from one image to the next the changes of the model parameter values. A maximum likelihood criterion is used in the process of fitting model to sensed data. The defined model takes into account geometric and intensity aspects. Such an approach readily yields global information on the disturbance cloud system of interest. As a requirement in such an application is robustness to noise, to this end two versions of the modeling have been considered.

  12. Toward an extended-geostrophic Euler-Poincare model for mesoscale oceanographic flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, J.S.; Newberger, P.A. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States). Coll. of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences; Holm, D.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1998-07-01

    The authors consider the motion of a rotating, continuously stratified fluid governed by the hydrostatic primitive equations (PE). An approximate Hamiltonian (L1) model for small Rossby number {var_epsilon} is derived for application to mesoscale oceanographic flow problems. Numerical experiments involving a baroclinically unstable oceanic jet are utilized to assess the accuracy of the L1 model compared to the PE and to other approximate models, such as the quasigeostrophic (QG) and the geostrophic momentum (GM) equations. The results of the numerical experiments for moderate Rossby number flow show that the L1 model gives accurate solutions with errors substantially smaller than QG or GM.

  13. Toward a Mesoscale Model for the Dynamics of Polymer Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, G H; Trebotich, D

    2006-10-02

    To model entire microfluidic systems containing solvated polymers we argue that it is necessary to have a numerical stability constraint governed only by the advective CFL condition. Advancements in the treatment of Kramers bead-rod polymer models are presented to enable tightly-coupled fluid-particle algorithms in the context of system-level modeling.

  14. Gasdynamic modeling and parametric study of mesoscale internal combustion swing engine/generator systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yongxian

    The demand of portable power generation systems for both domestic and military applications has driven the advances of mesoscale internal combustion engine systems. This dissertation was devoted to the gasdynamic modeling and parametric study of the mesoscale internal combustion swing engine/generator systems. First, the system-level thermodynamic modeling for the swing engine/generator systems has been developed. The system performance as well as the potentials of both two- and four-stroke swing engine systems has been investigated based on this model. Then through parameterc studies, the parameters that have significant impacts on the system performance have been identified, among which, the burn time and spark advance time are the critical factors related to combustion process. It is found that the shorter burn time leads to higher system efficiency and power output and the optimal spark advance time is about half of the burn time. Secondly, the turbulent combustion modeling based on levelset method (G-equation) has been implemented into the commercial software FLUENT. Thereafter, the turbulent flame propagation in a generic mesoscale combustion chamber and realistic swing engine chambers has been studied. It is found that, in mesoscale combustion engines, the burn time is dominated by the mean turbulent kinetic energy in the chamber. It is also shown that in a generic mesoscale combustion chamber, the burn time depends on the longest distance between the initial ignition kernel to its walls and by changing the ignition and injection locations, the burn time can be reduced by a factor of two. Furthermore, the studies of turbulent flame propagation in real swing engine chambers show that the combustion can be enhanced through in-chamber turbulence augmentation and with higher engine frequency, the burn time is shorter, which indicates that the in-chamber turbulence can be induced by the motion of moving components as well as the intake gas jet flow. The burn time

  15. METEOROLOGICAL MODELLING INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION PREDICTABILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Bande, Stefano; D'Allura, Alessio; Finardi, Sandro; Giorcelli, Matteo; Muraro, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: ARPA Piemonte performs yearly air quality assessment running a modelling system based on a chemical transport model. The model is capable to simulate air pollutant emission, transport, diffusion and chemical transformation, to provide concentration fields of the main atmospheric pollutants (CO, NOX, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, O3, and benzene) on a hourly basis and to compute all the indicators required by EU legislation. Meteorological fields to drive air quality simulations are rec...

  16. A numerical forecast model for road meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Chunlei

    2017-05-01

    A fine-scale numerical model for road surface parameters prediction (BJ-ROME) is developed based on the Common Land Model. The model is validated using in situ observation data measured by the ROSA road weather stations of Vaisala Company, Finland. BJ-ROME not only takes into account road surface factors, such as imperviousness, relatively low albedo, high heat capacity, and high heat conductivity, but also considers the influence of urban anthropogenic heat, impervious surface evaporation, and urban land-use/land-cover changes. The forecast time span and the update interval of BJ-ROME in vocational operation are 24 and 3 h, respectively. The validation results indicate that BJ-ROME can successfully simulate the diurnal variation of road surface temperature both under clear-sky and rainfall conditions. BJ-ROME can simulate road water and snow depth well if the artificial removing was considered. Road surface energy balance in rainy days is quite different from that in clear-sky conditions. Road evaporation could not be neglected in road surface water cycle research. The results of sensitivity analysis show solar radiation correction coefficient, asphalt depth, and asphalt heat conductivity are important parameters in road interface temperatures simulation. The prediction results could be used as a reference of maintenance decision support system to mitigate the traffic jam and urban water logging especially in large cities.

  17. Evaluation of surface and upper air fine scale WRF meteorological modeling of the May and June 2010 CalNex period in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kirk R.; Misenis, Chris; Obland, Michael D.; Ferrare, Richard A.; Scarino, Amy J.; Kelly, James T.

    2013-12-01

    Prognostic meteorological models such as Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are often used to supply inputs for retrospective air quality modeling done to support ozone and PM2.5 emission control demonstrations. In this study, multiple configurations of the WRF model are applied at 4 km grid resolution and compared to routine meteorological measurements and special study measurements taken in California during May-June 2010. One configuration is routinely used by US EPA to generate meteorological inputs for regulatory air quality modeling and another that is used by research scientists for evaluating meteorology and air quality. Mixing layer heights estimated from airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measurements of aerosol backscatter are compared with WRF modeled planetary boundary layer (PBL) height estimates. Both WRF configurations generally capture the variability in HSRL mixing height between days, hour-to-hour, and between surface features such as terrain and land-water interfaces. Fractional bias over all flights and both model configurations range from -38% to 32% and fractional error ranges from 22% to 58%. Surface and upper level measurements of temperature, water mixing ratio, and winds are generally well characterized by both WRF model configurations, often more closely matching surface observations than the input analysis data (12-NAM). The WRF model generally captures orographic and mesoscale meteorological features in the central Valley (bifurcation of wind flow from the San Francisco bay into the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys) and Los Angeles air basin (ocean-land flows) during this summer period.

  18. Prototype of a Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Modeling System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Luces, Saba A; Cionco, Ronald M

    2006-01-01

    .... A step-wise approach was employed to develop a modular prototype that would first show improved winds using high-resolution diagnostic models, but then be capable of interchanging various components...

  19. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio; Moriarty, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150m diameter and hub heights above 100m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer stru...

  20. Mesoscale modelling of shock initiation in HMX-based explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swift, D. C. (Damian C.); Mulford, R. N. R. (Robert N. R.); Winter, R. E. (Ron E.); Taylor, P. (Peter); Salisbury, D. A. (Darren A.); Harris, E. J. (Ernie J.)

    2002-01-01

    Motivation: predictive capability Want to predict initiation, detonics and performance given: {sm_bullet} Variations in composition {sm_bullet} Variations in morphology {sm_bullet}Different loading conditions Previous work on PBX and ANFO: need physically-based model rather than just mechanical calibrations

  1. Mesoscale modeling study of the oceanographic conditions off the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    coastal model (right). 3. Results and discussion. 3.1 Surface and subsurface circulation. The West Indian Coastal Current (WICC) (Shetye et al 1991) is simulated flowing south along the coast during the SW monsoon, between April and. September (figure 5b). The current intensifies with the increase of the SW monsoon ...

  2. Mesoscale modeling for the Wind Atlas of South Africa (WASA) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Lennard, Chris; Badger, Jake; Vincent, Claire Louise; Kelly, Mark C.; Volker, Patrick J.H.; Argent, Brendan; Refslund, Joakim

    2015-01-01

    This document reports on the methods used to create and the results of the two numerical wind atlases developed for the Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) project. The wind atlases were created using the KAMM-WAsP method and from the output of climate-type simulations of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, respectively. The report is divided into three main parts. In the first part, we document the method used to run the mesoscale simulations and to generalize the WRF model win...

  3. An Overview of Mesoscale Modeling Software for Energetic Materials Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    molecular dynamics program by NAgoya Cooperation ( COGNAC ) • Polymer rheology Analyzer with Slip-link model of entanglement (PASTA) • Simulation...FEM, and self-consistent field method. Detailed descriptions of the four simulation programs are below: • COGNAC ―A molecular dynamics program that...code 2. Available on Windows, Linux and MacOSX operating systems 3. Common GUI 4. COGNAC a. Density biased Monte Carlo and density biased

  4. Verification of some numerical models for operationally predicting mesoscale winds aloft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornett, J.S.; Randerson, D.

    1977-01-01

    Four numerical models are described for predicting mesoscale winds aloft for a 6 h period. These models are all tested statistically against persistence as the control forecast and against predictions made by operational forecasters. Mesoscale winds aloft data were used to initialize the models and to verify the predictions on an hourly basis. The model yielding the smallest root-mean-square vector errors (RMSVE's) was the one based on the most physics which included advection, ageostrophic acceleration, vertical mixing and friction. Horizontal advection was found to be the most important term in reducing the RMSVE's followed by ageostrophic acceleration, vertical advection, surface friction and vertical mixing. From a comparison of the mean absolute errors based on up to 72 independent wind-profile predictions made by operational forecasters, by the most complete model, and by persistence, we conclude that the model is the best wind predictor in the free air. In the boundary layer, the results tend to favor the forecaster for direction predictions. The speed predictions showed no overall superiority in any of these three models

  5. Wind Farm parametrization in the mesoscale model WRF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2012-01-01

    , but are parametrized as another sub-grid scale process. In order to appropriately capture the wind farm wake recovery and its direction, two properties are important, among others, the total energy extracted by the wind farm and its velocity deficit distribution. In the considered parametrization the individual...... the extracted force is proportional to the turbine area interfacing a grid cell. The sub-grid scale wake expansion is achieved by adding turbulence kinetic energy (proportional to the extracted power) to the flow. The validity of both wind farm parametrizations has been verified against observational data. We...... turbines produce a thrust dependent on the background velocity. For the sub-grid scale velocity deficit, the entrainment from the free atmospheric flow into the wake region, which is responsible for the expansion, is taken into account. Furthermore, since the model horizontal distance is several times...

  6. Tight-binding model for materials at mesoscale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-21

    TBM3 is an open source package for computational simulations of quantum materials at multiple scales in length and time. The project originated to investigate the multiferroic behavior in transition-metal oxide heterostructures. The framework has also been designed to study emergent phemona in other quantum materials like 2-dimensional transition-metal dichalcogenides, graphene, topological insulators, and skyrmion in materials, etc. In the long term, we will enable the package for transport and time-resolved phenomena. TBM3 is currently a C++ based numerical tool package and framework for the design and construction of any kind of lattice structures with multi-orbital and spin degrees of freedom. The fortran based portion of the package will be added in the near future. The design of TBM3 is in a highly flexible and reusable framework and the tight-binding parameters can be modeled or informed by DFT calculations. It is currently GPU enabled and feature of CPU enabled MPI will be added in the future.

  7. Mesoscale Modeling of Shock Wave Propagation and Dynamic Failure in Metallic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dongare, Avinash

    2013-03-01

    The response of materials under conditions of thermomechanical extremes is very complex and involves damage creation and propagation, phase transformation, heat generation and transfer, etc. A principal challenge in predictive modeling of failure behavior is presented by the gap between the atomistic description of micromechanisms of the relevant processes and the macoscale response in continuum simulations/experiments. This difficulty can be approached through the development of a robust mesoscopic computational model that retains the relevant physics and is capable of representing the material behavior at time- and length-scales intermediate between the atomistic or continuum levels. Mesoscale models typically reduce a group of atoms by a mesoparticle system with much smaller number of collective degrees of freedom, and hence are often difficult to apply for problems such as heat transfer, phase transformation, and dissipation of mechanical energy during wave propagation. To achieve this goal, a novel mesoscopic model is being developed based on the idea of coarse-graining with the energetics defined for the particles based on interatomic potentials used in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations (CGMD) allows larger size systems and improved time-steps for simulations and thus able to extend the capabilities of MD simulations to model materials behavior at mesoscales. The successful application of the CGMD method is demonstrated by prediction of the phase-transformation, heat generation and wave-propagation behavior under the conditions of shock loading, as would be predicted using MD simulations.

  8. Estimation of parasitic losses in a proposed mesoscale resonant engine: Experiment and model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

    2014-02-01

    A resonant engine in which the piston-cylinder assembly is replaced by a flexible cavity is realized at the mesoscale using flexible metal bellows to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A four stroke motoring technique is developed and measurements are performed to determine parasitic losses. A non-linear lumped parameter model is developed to evaluate the engine performance. Experimentally, the heat transfer and friction effects are separated by varying the engine speed and operating frequency. The engine energy flow diagram showing the energy distribution among various parasitic elements reveals that the friction loss in the bellows is smaller than the sliding friction loss in a typical piston-cylinder assembly.

  9. Process analysis of the modelled 3-D mesoscale impact of aircraft emissions on the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendricks, J.; Ebel, A.; Lippert, E.; Petry, H. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meterorologie

    1997-12-31

    A mesoscale chemistry transport model is applied to study the impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric trace gas composition. A special analysis of the simulations is conducted to separate the effects of chemistry, transport, diffusion and cloud processes on the transformation of the exhausts of a subsonic fleet cruising over the North Atlantic. The aircraft induced ozone production strongly depends on the tropopause height and the cruise altitude. Aircraft emissions may undergo an effective downward transport under the influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange activity. (author) 12 refs.

  10. Sensitivity of ocean model simulation in the coastal ocean to the resolution of the meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Thain, Richard

    2013-04-01

    The quality of ocean simulations depends on a number of factors such as approximations in governing equations, errors introduced by the numerical scheme, uncertainties in input parameters, and atmospheric forcing. The identification of relations between the uncertainties in input and output data is still a challenge for the development of numerical models. The impacts of ocean variables on ocean models are still not well known (e.g., Kara et al., 2009). Given the considerable importance of the atmospheric forcing to the air-sea interaction, it is essential that researchers in ocean modelling work need a good understanding about how sensitive the atmospheric forcing is to variations of model results, which is beneficial to the development of ocean models. Also, it provides a proper way to choose the atmospheric forcing in ocean modelling applications. Our previous study (Shapiro et al, 2011) has shown that the basin-wide circulation pattern and the temperature structure in the Black Sea produced by the same model is significantly dependent on the source of the meteorological input, giving remarkably different responses. For the purpose of this study we have chosen the Celtic Sea where high resolution meteo data are available from the UK Met office since 2006. The Celtic Sea is tidally dominated water basin, with the tidal stream amplitude varying from 0.25m/s in the southwest to 2 m/s in the Bristol Channel. It is also filled with mesoscale eddies which contribute to the formation of the residual (tidally averaged) circulation pattern (Young et al, 2003). The sea is strongly stratified from April to November, which adds to the formation of density driven currents. In this paper we analyse how sensitive the model output is to variations in the spatial resolution of meteorological using low (1.6°) and high (0.11°) resolution meteo forcing, giving the quantitative relation between variations of met forcing and the resulted differences of model results, as well as

  11. Meso-Scale Modeling to Characterize Moisture Absorption of 3D Woven Composite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yuan; Zhou, Chu-wei

    2016-08-01

    For polymer-matrix composites, moisture is expected to degrade their mechanical properties due to matrix plasticization and moisture introduced micro-scale defects. In this study, the moisture absorptions of bulk epoxy, unidirectional composite (UD) and 3D woven composite (3D WC) were tested. Two-stage features have been observed for all these three materials. Moisture properties for UD and 3D WC were found not in simple direct proportion to their matrix volume fractions. The moisture approach of UD was modeled including the effect of fiber/matrix interphase which promotes the moisture uptake. Then, meso-scale FE model for 3D WC was established to characterize the inhomogeneous moisture diffusion. The moisture properties of resin-rich region and fiber bundle in 3D WC were determined from water uptake experiments of bulk epoxy and UD, respectively. Through homogenizing moisture properties of surface and interior weave structures, a simplified theoretical sandwich moisture diffusion approach was established. The moisture weight gains of 3D WC predicted by both meso-scale FE model and simplified sandwich approach were well agreed with the experimental data.

  12. NORSEWIND – Mesoscale model derived Wind Atlases for the Irish Sea, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Berge, Erik; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Bredesen, Rolv Erlend; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Byrkjedal, Oyvind; Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Kravik, Reiar; Harstveit, Knut; Costa, Paolo; Oldroyd, Andy

    2013-01-01

    As a part of the EU Framework 7 R&D Program NORSEWInD, Wind Atlases for the Irish Sea, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea have been developed and made public available. In the present study the development of the offshore Wind Atlases is focused on the use of mesoscale model data since the access to measurements and satellite data have been limited. Mesoscale model runs were carried out for focus areas with high spatial model resolution (2 km) and the entire Wind Atlas domain with coarser r...

  13. Confronting the WRF and RAMS mesoscale models with innovative observations in the Netherlands: Evaluating the boundary layer heat budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, G. J.; Tolk, L. F.; Moene, A. F.; Hartogensis, O. K.; Peters, W.; Holtslag, A. A. M.

    2011-01-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Model System (RAMS) are frequently used for (regional) weather, climate and air quality studies. This paper covers an evaluation of these models for a windy and calm episode against Cabauw tower observations

  14. Simulation of coastal winds along the central west coast of India using the MM5 mesoscale model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pushpadas, D.; Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; George, S.; Babu, M.T.; Nair, T.M.B.

    A high-resolution mesoscale numerical model (MM5) has been used to study the coastal atmospheric circulation of the central west coast of India, and Goa in particular. The model is employed with three nested domains. The innermost domain of 3 km...

  15. Mesoscale spiral vortex embedded within a Lake Michigan snow squall band - High resolution satellite observations and numerical model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Keen, Cecil S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark; Pease, Steven R.

    1988-01-01

    It is known that Great Lakes snow squall convection occurs in a variety of different modes depending on various factors such as air-water temperature contrast, boundary-layer wind shear, and geostrophic wind direction. An exceptional and often neglected source of data for mesoscale cloud studies is the ultrahigh resolution multispectral data produced by Landsat satellites. On October 19, 1972, a clearly defined spiral vortex was noted in a Landsat-1 image near the southern end of Lake Michigan during an exceptionally early cold air outbreak over a still very warm lake. In a numerical simulation using a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrostatic primitive equation mesoscale model with an initially uniform wind field, a definite analog to the observed vortex was generated. This suggests that intense surface heating can be a principal cause in the development of a low-level mesoscale vortex.

  16. Air quality modeling: evaluation of chemical and meteorological parameterizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngseob

    2011-01-01

    The influence of chemical mechanisms and meteorological parameterizations on pollutant concentrations calculated with an air quality model is studied. The influence of the differences between two gas-phase chemical mechanisms on the formation of ozone and aerosols in Europe is low on average. For ozone, the large local differences are mainly due to the uncertainty associated with the kinetics of nitrogen monoxide (NO) oxidation reactions on the one hand and the representation of different pathways for the oxidation of aromatic compounds on the other hand. The aerosol concentrations are mainly influenced by the selection of all major precursors of secondary aerosols and the explicit treatment of chemical regimes corresponding to the nitrogen oxides (NO x ) levels. The influence of the meteorological parameterizations on the concentrations of aerosols and their vertical distribution is evaluated over the Paris region in France by comparison to lidar data. The influence of the parameterization of the dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer is important; however, it is the use of an urban canopy model that improves significantly the modeling of the pollutant vertical distribution (author) [fr

  17. LDRD final report : mesoscale modeling of dynamic loading of heterogeneous materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbins, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dingreville, Remi Philippe Michel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Voth, Thomas Eugene [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Furnish, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Material response to dynamic loading is often dominated by microstructure (grain structure, porosity, inclusions, defects). An example critically important to Sandia's mission is dynamic strength of polycrystalline metals where heterogeneities lead to localization of deformation and loss of shear strength. Microstructural effects are of broad importance to the scientific community and several institutions within DoD and DOE; however, current models rely on inaccurate assumptions about mechanisms at the sub-continuum or mesoscale. Consequently, there is a critical need for accurate and robust methods for modeling heterogeneous material response at this lower length scale. This report summarizes work performed as part of an LDRD effort (FY11 to FY13; project number 151364) to meet these needs.

  18. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  19. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciotti, E.; Marzano, F. S.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J.; Fessas, Y.; Volpi, A.; Cazac, V.; Pace, R.; Cinque, G.; Bernardini, L.; De Sanctis, K.; Di Fabio, S.; Montopoli, M.; Anagnostou, M. N.; Telleschi, A.; Dimitriou, E.; Stella, J.

    2013-05-01

    Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative integrated decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps

  20. NORSEWIND – Mesoscale model derived Wind Atlases for the Irish Sea, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berge, Erik; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Bredesen, Rolv Erlend

    Offshore Wind Atlases based on the meso-scale model WRF are presented and validated in this paper. The Work has been part of the EU-funded project NORSEWIND (Northern Seas Wind Index Database). Validations show that annual average wind speeds and wind-roses at hub-height (100m) are well represented...

  1. Medium-term hydrologic forecasting in mountain basins using forecasting of a mesoscale numerical weather model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro Heredia, L. M.; Suarez, F. I.; Fernandez, B.; Maass, T.

    2016-12-01

    For forecasting of water resources, weather outputs provide a valuable source of information which is available online. Compared to traditional ground-based meteorological gauges, weather forecasts data offer spatially and temporally continuous data not yet evaluated and used in the forecasting of water resources in mountainous regions in Chile. Nevertheless, the use of this non-conventional data has been limited or null in developing countries, basically because of the spatial resolution, despite the high potential in the management of water resources. The adequate incorporation of these data in hydrological models requires its evaluation while taking into account the features of river basins in mountainous regions. This work presents an integrated forecasting system which represents a radical change in the way of making the streamflow forecasts in Chile, where the snowmelt forecast is the principal component of water resources management. The integrated system is composed of a physically based hydrological model, which is the prediction tool itself, together with a methodology for remote sensing data gathering that allows feed the hydrological model in real time, and meteorological forecasts from NCEP-CFSv2. Previous to incorporation of meteorological forecasts into the hydrological model, the weather outputs were evaluated and downscaling using statistical downscaling methods. The hydrological forecasts were evaluated in two mountain basins in Chile for a term of six months for the snowmelt period. In every month an assimilation process was performed, and the hydrological forecast was improved. Each month, the snow cover area (from remote sensing) and the streamflow observed were used to assimilate the model parameters in order to improve the next hydrological forecast using meteorological forecasts. The operation of the system in real time shows a good agreement between the streamflow and the snow cover area observed. The hydrological model and the weather

  2. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  3. Modeling the wet bulb globe temperature using standard meteorological measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljegren, James C; Carhart, Richard A; Lawday, Philip; Tschopp, Stephen; Sharp, Robert

    2008-10-01

    The U.S. Army has a need for continuous, accurate estimates of the wet bulb globe temperature to protect soldiers and civilian workers from heat-related injuries, including those involved in the storage and destruction of aging chemical munitions at depots across the United States. At these depots, workers must don protective clothing that increases their risk of heat-related injury. Because of the difficulty in making continuous, accurate measurements of wet bulb globe temperature outdoors, the authors have developed a model of the wet bulb globe temperature that relies only on standard meteorological data available at each storage depot for input. The model is composed of separate submodels of the natural wet bulb and globe temperatures that are based on fundamental principles of heat and mass transfer, has no site-dependent parameters, and achieves an accuracy of better than 1 degree C based on comparisons with wet bulb globe temperature measurements at all depots.

  4. MELSAR: a mesoscale air quality model for complex terrain. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allwine, K.J.; Whiteman, C.D.

    1985-04-01

    This final report is submitted as part of the Green River Ambient Model Assessment (GRAMA) project conducted at the US Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the US Environmental Protection Agency. The GRAMA Program has, as its ultimate goal, the development of validated air quality models that can be applied to the complex terrain of the Green River Formation of western Colorado, eastern Utah and southern Wyoming. The Green River Formation is a geologic formation containing large reserves of oil shale, coal, and other natural resources. Development of these resources may lead to a degradation of the air quality of the region. Air quality models are needed immediately for planning and regulatory purposes to assess the magnitude of these regional impacts. This report documents one of the models being developed for this purpose within GRAMA - specifically a model to predict short averaging time (less than or equal to 24 h) pollutant concentrations resulting from the mesoscale transport of pollutant releases from multiple sources. MELSAR has not undergone any rigorous operational testing, sensitivity analyses, or validation studies. Testing and evaluation of the model are needed to gain a measure of confidence in the model's performance. This report consists of two volumes. This volume contains the Appendices, which include listings of the FORTRAN code and Volume 1 contains the model overview, technical description, and user's guide. 13 figs., 10 tabs.

  5. Validation and application of an urban turbulence parameterisation scheme for mesoscale atmospheric models

    OpenAIRE

    Roulet, Yves-Alain F.; Clappier, Alain

    2005-01-01

    Growing population, extensive use (and abuse) of the natural resources, increasing pollutants emissions in the atmosphere: these are a few obstacles (and not the least) one has to face with nowadays to ensure the sustainability of our planet in general, and of the air quality in particular. In the case of air pollution, the processes that govern the transport and the chemical transformation of pollutants are highly complex and non-linear. The use of numerical models for simulating meteorologi...

  6. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  7. Mesoscale wind fluctuations over Danish waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vincent, C.L.

    2010-12-15

    Mesoscale wind fluctuations affect the large scale integration of wind power because they undermine the day-ahead predictability of wind speed and power production, and because they can result in large fluctuations in power generation that must be balanced using reserve power. Large fluctuations in generated power are a particular problem for offshore wind farms because the typically high concentration of turbines within a limited geographical area means that fluctuations can be correlated across large numbers of turbines. Furthermore, organised mesoscale structures that often form over water, such as convective rolls and cellular convection, have length scales of tens of kilometers, and can cause large wind fluctuations on a time scale of around an hour. This thesis is an exploration of the predictability of mesoscale wind fluctuations using observations from the world's first two large offshore wind farms - Horns Rev I in the North Sea, and Nysted in the Baltic Sea. The thesis begins with a climatological analysis of wind fluctuations on time scales of 1-10 hours at the two sites. A novel method for calculating conditional climatologies of spectral information is proposed, based on binning and averaging the time axis of the Hilbert spectrum. Results reveal clear patterns between wind fluctuations and locally observed meteorological conditions. The analysis is expanded by classifying wind fluctuations on time scales of 1-3 hours according to synoptic patterns, satellite pictures and wind classes. Results indicate that cold air outbreaks and open cellular convection are a significant contributor to mesoscale wind variability at Horns Rev. The predictability of mesoscale wind fluctuations is tested by implementing standard statistical models that relate local wind variability to parameters based on a large scale weather analysis. The models show some skill, but only achieve a 15% improvement on a persistence forecast. The possibility of explicitly modelling

  8. Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection-permitting climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Bullock, Randy; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn

    2017-10-01

    Deep convection is a key process in the climate system and the main source of precipitation in the tropics, subtropics, and mid-latitudes during summer. Furthermore, it is related to high impact weather causing floods, hail, tornadoes, landslides, and other hazards. State-of-the-art climate models have to parameterize deep convection due to their coarse grid spacing. These parameterizations are a major source of uncertainty and long-standing model biases. We present a North American scale convection-permitting climate simulation that is able to explicitly simulate deep convection due to its 4-km grid spacing. We apply a feature-tracking algorithm to detect hourly precipitation from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the model and compare it with radar-based precipitation estimates east of the US Continental Divide. The simulation is able to capture the main characteristics of the observed MCSs such as their size, precipitation rate, propagation speed, and lifetime within observational uncertainties. In particular, the model is able to produce realistically propagating MCSs, which was a long-standing challenge in climate modeling. However, the MCS frequency is significantly underestimated in the central US during late summer. We discuss the origin of this frequency biases and suggest strategies for model improvements.

  9. Habitat modeling in high-gradient streams: the mesoscale approach and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezza, Paolo; Parasiewicz, Piotr; Spairani, Michele; Comoglio, Claudio

    2014-06-01

    This study aimed to set out a new methodology for habitat modeling in high-gradient streams. The methodology is based on the mesoscale approach of the MesoHABSIM simulation system and can support the definition and assessment of environmental flow and habitat restoration measures. Data from 40 study sites located within the mountainous areas of the Valle d'Aosta, Piemonte and Liguria regions (Northwest Italy) were used in the analysis. To adapt MesoHABSIM to high-gradient streams, we first modified the data collection strategy to address the challenging conditions of surveys by using GIS and mobile mapping techniques. Secondly, we built habitat suitability models at a regional scale to enable their transferability among different streams with different morphologies. Thirdly, due to the absence of stream gauges in headwaters, we proposed a possible way to simulate flow time series and, therefore, generate habitat time series. The resulting method was evaluated in terms of time expenditure for field data collection and habitat-modeling potentials, and it represents a specific improvement of the MesoHABSIM system for habitat modeling in high-gradient streams, where other commonly used methodologies can be unsuitable. Through its application at several study sites, the proposed methodology adapted well to high-gradient streams and allowed the: (1) definition of fish habitat requirements for many streams simultaneously, (2) modeling of habitat variation over a range of discharges, and (3) determination of environmental standards for mountainous watercourses.

  10. Quantifying wind resource assessment and grid integration challenges for Delaware offshore wind power utilizing mesoscale modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Joseph F.

    Offshore wind in the United States continues to be a focused area of research as our society grapples with the Earth's changing climate and our ongoing and increasing demand for electricity. While the first offshore wind project in the U.S. is expected to be operational soon, much still remains to be done to help improve viability of offshore wind in additional locations. This dissertation discusses three studies conducted to improve the understanding of and expectations from developing wind energy in the Delaware Wind Energy Area off the Delaware coast. The first study examines the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to account for variations in wind farm array geometries in an idealized set-up of the model, and determines features of those array geometries that can positively influence the energy production of an offshore farm. The second study investigates the impacts that the misprediction of wind ramp events would have on the interaction of an offshore wind farm with the electricity grid, quantifying some of these impacts and discussing factors which contribute to grid instability. The third study combines the knowledge gained in the first two studies to evaluate potential wind farm array geometries in a regional study of the Delaware Wind Energy Area using WRF along with a selection of case study dates selected to examine the impacts of the synoptic variability of the region throughout the year. These studies demonstrate that careful consideration of the meteorology and climatology of a region when determining the layout of an offshore wind array can improve the power production of the farm, thereby improving wind farm viability. It is shown that using a mesoscale model that incorporates a wind farm parameterization can improve resource assessment by allowing the assessment to evaluate the wind farm's interactions with the weather and climate in the Delaware Wind Energy Area. Furthermore, it is shown that while certain synoptic

  11. Meteorological implementation issues in chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Strahan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Offline chemistry and transport models (CTMs are versatile tools for studying composition and climate issues requiring multi-decadal simulations. They are computationally fast compared to coupled chemistry climate models, making them well-suited for integrating sensitivity experiments necessary for understanding model performance and interpreting results. The archived meteorological fields used by CTMs can be implemented with lower horizontal or vertical resolution than the original meteorological fields in order to shorten integration time, but the effects of these shortcuts on transport processes must be understood if the CTM is to have credibility. In this paper we present a series of sensitivity experiments on a CTM using the Lin and Rood advection scheme, each differing from another by a single feature of the wind field implementation. Transport effects arising from changes in resolution and model lid height are evaluated using process-oriented diagnostics that intercompare CH4, O3, and age tracer carried in the simulations. Some of the diagnostics used are derived from observations and are shown as a reality check for the model. Processes evaluated include tropical ascent, tropical-midlatitude exchange, poleward circulation in the upper stratosphere, and the development of the Antarctic vortex. We find that faithful representation of stratospheric transport in this CTM is possible with a full mesosphere, ~1 km resolution in the lower stratosphere, and relatively low vertical resolution (>4 km spacing in the middle stratosphere and above, but lowering the lid from the upper to lower mesosphere leads to less realistic constituent distributions in the upper stratosphere. Ultimately, this affects the polar lower stratosphere, but the effects are greater for the Antarctic than the Arctic. The fidelity of lower stratospheric transport requires realistic tropical and high latitude mixing barriers which are produced at 2°×2.5°, but not lower

  12. Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, Antonio; Ferraris, Luca; Gallus, William; Maugeri, Maurizio; Molini, Luca; Siccardi, Franco; Boni, Giorgio

    2017-05-01

    Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea (17 out of 56 members) as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Ligurian Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers, and even photographs, can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

  13. A smoothed particle hydrodynamics framework for modelling multiphase interactions at meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ling; Shen, Luming; Nguyen, Giang D.; El-Zein, Abbas; Maggi, Federico

    2018-01-01

    A smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) framework is developed for modelling multiphase interactions at meso-scale, including the liquid-solid interaction induced deformation of the solid phase. With an inter-particle force formulation that mimics the inter-atomic force in molecular dynamics, the proposed framework includes the long-range attractions between particles, and more importantly, the short-range repulsive forces to avoid particle clustering and instability problems. Three-dimensional numerical studies have been conducted to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework to quantitatively replicate the surface tension of water, to model the interactions between immiscible liquids and solid, and more importantly, to simultaneously model the deformation of solid and liquid induced by the multiphase interaction. By varying inter-particle potential magnitude, the proposed SPH framework has successfully simulated various wetting properties ranging from hydrophobic to hydrophilic surfaces. The simulation results demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework to genuinely study complex multiphase interactions in wet granular media.

  14. Mesoscale analysis of failure in quasi-brittle materials: comparison between lattice model and acoustic emission data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grégoire, David; Verdon, Laura; Lefort, Vincent; Grassl, Peter; Saliba, Jacqueline; Regoin, Jean-Pierre; Loukili, Ahmed; Pijaudier-Cabot, Gilles

    2015-10-25

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the development and the evolution of the fracture process zone during fracture and damage in quasi-brittle materials. A model taking into account the material details at the mesoscale is used to describe the failure process at the scale of the heterogeneities. This model is used to compute histograms of the relative distances between damaged points. These numerical results are compared with experimental data, where the damage evolution is monitored using acoustic emissions. Histograms of the relative distances between damage events in the numerical calculations and acoustic events in the experiments exhibit good agreement. It is shown that the mesoscale model provides relevant information from the point of view of both global responses and the local failure process. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Short range forecasting of sea breeze generated thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center: A real-time experiment using a primitive equation mesoscale numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Schuh, Jerome A.; Moon, Dennis; Pielke, Roger A.; Cotton, William; Arritt, Raymond

    1987-01-01

    The operational efficiency of using guidance from a mesoscale numerical model to improve sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts at and around the Shuttle landing strip was assessed. The Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) model, developed as a sea breeze model, reveals a strong correlation between regions of mesoscale convergence and the triggering of sea breeze convection thunderstorms. The P3DM was modified to generate stability parameters familiar to the operational forecaster. In addition to the mesoscale fields of wind, vertical motion, moisture, temperature, a stability indicator, a combination of model-predicted K and Lifted Indices and the maximum grid cell vertical motion, were proposed and tested. Results of blind tests indicate that a forecaster, provided with guidance derived from model output, could improve local thunderstorm forecasts.

  16. Simulation of Wind-Driven Snow Redistribution at a High-Elevation Alpine Site Using a Meso-Scale Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Martin, E.; Masson, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim-Bouvet, F.; Prokop, A.; Durand, Y.; Lac, C.

    2012-12-01

    In alpine regions, blowing snow events strongly influence the temporal and spatial evolution of the snow depth distribution throughout the winter season. We recently developed a new simulation system to gain understanding on the complex processes that drive the redistribution of snow by the wind in complex terrain. This new system couples directly the detailed snow-pack model Crocus with the meso-scale atmospheric model Meso-NH. A blowing snow scheme allows Meso-NH to simulate the transport of snow particles in the atmosphere. We used the coupled system to study a blowing snow event with snowfall that occurred in February 2011 in the Grandes Rousses range (French Alps). Three nested domains at an horizontal resolution of 450, 150 and 50 m allow the model to simulate the complex 3D precipitation and wind fields around our experimental site (2720 m a.s.l.) during this 22-hour event. Wind-induced snow transport is activated over the domains of higher resolution (150 and 50 m). We firstly assessed the ability of the model to reproduce atmospheric flows at high resolution in alpine terrain using a large dataset of observations (meteorological data, vertical profile of wind speed). Simulated blowing snow fluxes are then compared with measurements from SPC and mechanical snow traps. Finally a map of snow erosion and accumulation produced by Terrestrial Laser measurements allows to evaluate the quality of the simulated snow depth redistribution.

  17. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models to evaluate the uncertainty in runoff forecasting: the case study of Maggiore Lake basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Rabuffetti, D.; Mancini, M.

    2009-04-01

    In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for hydrological purposes. The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. D-PHASE stands for Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region and is a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) of the WWRP (World Weather Research Programme of WMO). It aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The MAP FDP has addressed the entire forecasting chain, ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) was from 1 June to 30 November 2007. In this study the hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. D-PHASE hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 meteorological members, provided by COSMO-LEPS model (by ARPA Emilia-Romagna) with 5 day lead-time and a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Deterministic hydrological D-PHASE forecasts are provided by MOLOCH weather model (by ISAC-CNR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.2 km, nested into BOLAM, based on GFS initial and boundary conditions with 48 h lead-time. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The

  18. Integrating satellite actual evapotranspiration patterns into distributed model parametrization and evaluation for a mesoscale catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, M. C.; Mai, J.; Stisen, S.; Mendiguren González, G.; Koch, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2016-12-01

    Distributed hydrologic models are traditionally calibrated and evaluated against observations of streamflow. Spatially distributed remote sensing observations offer a great opportunity to enhance spatial model calibration schemes. For that it is important to identify the model parameters that can change spatial patterns before the satellite based hydrologic model calibration. Our study is based on two main pillars: first we use spatial sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters controlling the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET). Second, we investigate the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). This distributed model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the calibration of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) directly as input. In addition the simulated AET can be estimated at the spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed using MODIS data. We introduce a new dynamic scaling function employing remotely sensed vegetation to downscale coarse reference evapotranspiration. In total, 17 parameters of 47 mHM parameters are identified using both sequential screening and Latin hypercube one-at-a-time sampling methods. The spatial patterns are found to be sensitive to the vegetation parameters whereas streamflow dynamics are sensitive to the PTF parameters. The results of multi-objective model calibration show that calibration of mHM against observed streamflow does not reduce the spatial errors in AET while they improve only the streamflow simulations. We will further examine the results of model calibration using only multi spatial objective functions measuring the association between observed AET and simulated AET maps and another case including spatial and streamflow metrics together.

  19. Evaluation of Test Methods for Triaxially Braided Composites using a Meso-Scale Finite Element Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Chao

    2015-10-01

    The characterization of triaxially braided composite is complicate due to the nonuniformity of deformation within the unit cell as well as the possibility of the freeedge effect related to the large size of the unit cell. Extensive experimental investigation has been conducted to develop more accurate test approaches in characterizing the actual mechanical properties of the material we are studying. In this work, a meso-scale finite element model is utilized to simulate two complex specimens: notched tensile specimen and tube tensile specimen, which are designed to avoid the free-edge effect and free-edge effect induced premature edge damage. The full field strain data is predicted numerically and compared with experimental data obtained by Digit Image Correlation. The numerically predicted tensile strength values are compared with experimentally measured results. The discrepancy between numerically predicted and experimentally measured data, the capability of different test approaches are analyzed and discussed. The presented numerical model could serve as assistance to the evaluation of different test methods, and is especially useful in identifying potential local damage events.

  20. Accounting for rainfall evaporation using dual-polarization radar and mesoscale model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallardy, Quinn; Fox, Neil I.

    2018-02-01

    Implementation of dual-polarization radar should allow for improvements in quantitative precipitation estimates due to dual-polarization capability allowing for the retrieval of the second moment of the gamma drop size distribution. Knowledge of the shape of the DSD can then be used in combination with mesoscale model data to estimate the motion and evaporation of each size of drop falling from the height at which precipitation is observed by the radar to the surface. Using data from Central Missouri at a range between 130 and 140 km from the operational National Weather Service radar a rain drop tracing scheme was developed to account for the effects of evaporation, where individual raindrops hitting the ground were traced to the point in space and time where they interacted with the radar beam. The results indicated evaporation played a significant role in radar rainfall estimation in situations where the atmosphere was relatively dry. Improvements in radar estimated rainfall were also found in these situations by accounting for evaporation. The conclusion was made that the effects of raindrop evaporation were significant enough to warrant further research into the inclusion high resolution model data in the radar rainfall estimation process for appropriate locations.

  1. Average circulation, seasonal cycle, and mesoscale dynamics of the Peru Current System: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penven, P.; Echevin, V.; Pasapera, J.; Colas, F.; Tam, J.

    2005-10-01

    The Humboldt Current System is the most productive of the eastern boundary currents. In the northern part, the Peru Current System (PCS) is located between 5°S and 20°S. Along the Peruvian coast, an equatorward wind forces a strong coastal upwelling. A high resolution model is designed to investigate the mean circulation, the seasonal cycle, and the mesoscale dynamics for the PCS. The model is able to reproduce the equatorward Peru Coastal Current (PCC), the Peru Chile Under-Current (PCUC) which follows the shelf break towards the pole, and the Peru-Chile Counter-Current (PCCC) which flows directly towards the south and veers to the west around 15°S. While the upper part of the PCUC is close to the surface and might even outcrop as a counter current, the bottom part follows ? isolines. The PCCC appears to be directly forced by the cyclonic wind stress curl. The model is able to produce the upwelling front, the cold water tongue which extends toward the equator and the equatorial front as described in the literature. Model seasonal changes in SST and SSH are compared to measurements. For the central PCS, model EKE is 10% to 30% lower than the observations. The model eddy diameters follow a strong equatorward increase. The injection length scales, derived from the energy spectra, strongly correlate to the Rossby radius of deformation, confirming the predominant role of baroclinic instability. At 3°S, the model solution appears to switch from a turbulent oceanic regime to an equatorial regime dominated by zonal currents.

  2. A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

  3. Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Mittermaier

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

    The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

  4. Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; DeMaria, Mark; Li, J.-L. F.; Cheung, S.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

  5. A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

    2018-04-01

    To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

  6. Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, William M.; Suggs, Ron; McNider, Richard T.; Jedlovec, Gary; Dembek, Scott R.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU

  7. Quantitative modelling of the closure of meso-scale parallel currents in the nightside ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marchaudon

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available On 12 January 2000, during a northward IMF period, two successive conjunctions occur between the CUTLASS SuperDARN radar pair and the two satellites Ørsted and FAST. This situation is used to describe and model the electrodynamic of a nightside meso-scale arc associated with a convection shear. Three field-aligned current sheets, one upward and two downward on both sides, are observed. Based on the measurements of the parallel currents and either the conductance or the electric field profile, a model of the ionospheric current closure is developed along each satellite orbit. This model is one-dimensional, in a first attempt and a two-dimensional model is tested for the Ørsted case. These models allow one to quantify the balance between electric field gradients and ionospheric conductance gradients in the closure of the field-aligned currents. These radar and satellite data are also combined with images from Polar-UVI, allowing for a description of the time evolution of the arc between the two satellite passes. The arc is very dynamic, in spite of quiet solar wind conditions. Periodic enhancements of the convection and of electron precipitation associated with the arc are observed, probably associated with quasi-periodic injections of particles due to reconnection in the magnetotail. Also, a northward shift and a reorganisation of the precipitation pattern are observed, together with a southward shift of the convection shear. Key words. Ionosphere (auroral ionosphere; electric fields and currents; particle precipitation – Magnetospheric physics (magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions

  8. EDgE multi-model hydro-meteorological seasonal hindcast experiments over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    , Spain, and UK indicate that extreme events such as the 2003 European drought can be forecasted consistently by all models at short lead times of one to two months. At six month lead time, the 208 model realizations show little skill to forecast extreme events. The predictability of extreme events is not uniformly distributed across Europe. For example, Northern Europe exhibits higher predictability due to the persistence induced by cold processes (e.g., snow). In general, the major source of poor forecasting skill is the little skill in precipitation forecast. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Bohn, T. J. , B., Livneh J. W. Oyler, S. W. Running, B. Nijssen, D. P. Lettenmaier, 2013: Global evaluation of MTCLIM and related algorithms for forcing of ecological and hydrological models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 176 , pp. 38-49. Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and S. Attinger (2010), Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water Resource Research, 46, W05523, doi:10.1029/2008WR007327 Thober, S., R. Kumar, J. Sheffield, J. Mai, D. Schaefer, and L. Samaniego, 2015: Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). J. Hydrometeor., 16, 2329-2344.

  9. Validation of satellite SAR offshore wind speed maps to in-situ data, microscala and mesoscale model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasager, C.B.; Astrup, P.; Barthelmie, R.; Dellwik, E.; Hoffmann Joergensen, B.; Gylling Mortensen, N.; Nielsen, M.; Pryor, S.; Rathmann, O.

    2002-05-01

    A validation study has been performed in order to investigate the precision and accuracy of the satellite-derived ERS-2 SAR wind products in offshore regions. The overall project goal is to develop a method for utilizing the satellite wind speed maps for offshore wind resources, e.g. in future planning of offshore wind farms. The report describes the validation analysis in detail for three sites in Denmark, Italy and Egypt. The site in Norway is analyzed by the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NERSC). Wind speed maps and wind direction maps from Earth Observation data recorded by the ERS-2 SAR satellite have been obtained from the NERSC. For the Danish site the wind speed and wind direction maps have been compared to in-situ observations from a met-mast at Horns Rev in the North Sea located 14 km offshore. The SAR wind speeds have been area-averaged by simple and advanced footprint modelling, ie. the upwind conditions to the meteorological mast are explicitly averaged in the SAR wind speed maps before comparison. The comparison results are very promising with a standard error of {+-} 0.61 m s{sup -1}, a bias {approx}2 m s{sup -1} and R{sup 2} {approx}0.88 between in-situ wind speed observations and SAR footprint averaged values at 10 m level. Wind speeds predicted by the local scale model LINCOM and the mesoscale model KAMM2 have been compared to the spatial variations in the SAR wind speed maps. The finding is a good correspondence between SAR observations and model results. Near the coast is an 800 m wide band in which the SAR wind speed observations have a strong negative bias. The bathymetry of Horns Rev combined with tidal currents give rise to bias in the SAR wind speed maps near areas of shallow, complex bottom topography in some cases. A total of 16 cases were analyzed for Horns Rev. For Maddalena in Italy five cases were analyzed. At the Italian site the SAR wind speed maps were compared to WAsP and KAMM2 model results. The WAsP model

  10. Investigating Deformation and Mesoscale Void Creation in HMX Based Composites using Tomography Based Grain Scale Finite Element Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, David J.; Luscher, Darby J.; Manner, Virginia; Yeager, John D.; Patterson, Brian M.

    2017-06-01

    The microstructure of plastic bonded explosives (PBXs) significantly affects their macroscale mechanical characteristics. Imaging and modeling of the mesoscale constituents allows for a detailed examination of the deformation of mechanically loaded PBXs. In this study, explosive composites, formulated with HMX crystals and various HTPB based polymer binders have been imaged using micro Computed Tomography (μCT). Cohesive parameters for simulation of the crystal/binder interface are determined by comparing numerical and experimental results of the delamination of a polymer bound bi-crystal system. Similarly, polycrystalline samples are discretized into a finite element mesh using the mesoscale geometry captured by in-situ μCT imaging. Experimentally, increasing the stiffness of the HTPB binder in the polycrystalline system resulted in a transition from ductile flow with little crystal/binder delamination to brittle behavior with increased void creation along the interfaces. Simulating the macroscale compression of these samples demonstrates the effects that the mesoscale geometry, cohesive properties, and binder stiffness have on the creation and distribution of interfacial voids. Understanding void nucleation is critical for modeling damage in these complex materials.

  11. Complementary Use of Glider Data, Altimetry, and Model for Exploring Mesoscale Eddies in the Tropical Pacific Solomon Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdeau, L.; Verron, J.; Chaigneau, A.; Cravatte, S.; Kessler, W.

    2017-11-01

    Mesoscale activity is an important component of the Solomon Sea circulation that interacts with the energetic low-latitude western boundary currents of the South Tropical Pacific Ocean carrying waters of subtropical origin before joining the equatorial Pacific. Mixing associated with mesoscale activity could explain water mass transformation observed in the Solomon Sea that likely impacts El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics. This study makes synergetic use of glider data, altimetry, and high-resolution model for exploring mesoscale eddies, especially their vertical structures, and their role on the Solomon Sea circulation. The description of individual eddies observed by altimetry and gliders provides the first elements to characterize the 3-D structure of these tropical eddies, and confirms the usefulness of the model to access a more universal view of such eddies. Mesoscale eddies appear to have a vertical extension limited to the Surface Waters (SW) and the Upper Thermocline Water (UTW), i.e., the first 140-150 m depth. Most of the eddies are nonlinear, meaning that eddies can trap and transport water properties. But they weakly interact with the deep New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent that is a key piece of the equatorial circulation. Anticyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to advect salty and warm SW coming from the intrusion of equatorial Pacific waters at Solomon Strait, and to impact the characteristics of the New Guinea Coastal Current. Cyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to transport South Pacific Tropical Water (SPTW) anomalies from the North Vanuatu Jet and to erode by diapycnal mixing the high SPTW salinity.

  12. Surface Energy Balance in Jakarta and Neighboring Regions As Simulated Using Fifth Mesoscale Model (MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present research was to assess the surface energy balance particularly in terms of the computed surface energy and radiation balance and the development of boundary layer over Jakarta and Neighboring Regions (JNR by means of numerical model of fifth generation of Mesoscale Model (MM5. The MM5 with four domains of 9 kilometers in spatial resolution presenting the outermost and the innermost of JNR is utilized. The research focuses on the third and fourth domains covering the entire JNR. The description between radiation and energy balance at the surface is obtained from the model. The result showed that energy balance is higher in the city area during daytime. Meanwhile, energy components, e.g., surface sensible and latent heat flux showed that at the sea and in the city areas were higher than other areas. Moreover, ground flux showed eastern region was higher than others. In general, radiation and energy balance was higher in the daytime and lower in the nighttime for all regions. The calculation of Bowen Ratio, the ratio of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, was also higher in the city area, reflecting the dominations of urban and built-up land in the region. Meanwhile, Bowen Ratio in the rural area dominated by irrigated cropland was lower. It is consistent with changes of land cover properties, e.g. albedo, soil moisture, and thermal characteristics. In addition, the boundary layer is also higher in the city. Meanwhile western region dominated by suburban showed higher boundary layer instead of eastern region.

  13. Comparative Evaluation of the Impact of WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW Meteorology on CMAQ Simulations for O3 and Related Species During the 2006 TexAQS/GoMACCS Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, impact of meteorology derived from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Non–hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and WRF–Advanced Research WRF (ARW) meteorological models on the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulations for ozone and its related prec...

  14. Development and application of a chemistry mechanism for mesoscale simulations of the troposphere and lower stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippert, E.; Hendricks, J.; Petry, H. [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    A new chemical mechanism is applied for mesoscale simulations of the impact of aircraft exhausts on the atmospheric composition. The temporal and spatial variation of the tropopause height is associated with a change of the trace gas composition in these heights. Box and three dimensional mesoscale model studies show that the conversion of aircraft exhausts depends strongly on the cruise heights as well as on the location of release in relation to the tropopause. The impact of aircraft emissions on ozone is strongly dependent on the individual meteorological situation. A rising of the tropopause height within a few days results in a strong increase of ozone caused by aircraft emissions. (author) 12 refs.

  15. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport from equatorial Southeast Asian Maritime Continent to the Philippines: First comparison of ensemble analysis with in situ observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Cui; Wang, Jun; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Posselt, Derek J.; Xian, Peng; Hyer, Edward

    2017-05-01

    -Chem simulations in describing smoke transport on 20 September 2011, suggesting the challenges to model tropical meteorology at mesoscale and finer scale.

  16. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1997-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  17. Contribution of JMA to the WMO Technical Task Team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and relevant atmospheric transport modeling at MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Kato, Teruyuki; Kajino, Mizuo; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Maki, Takashi; Draxler, Roland; Hara, Tabito; Toyoda, Eizi; Honda, Yuki; Nagata, Kazuhiko; Fujita, Tsukasa; Sakamoto, Masami; Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi

    2015-01-01

    The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) was asked to produce a scientific report for the General Assembly on the levels and effects of radiation exposure caused by the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and UNSCEAR requested the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to develop a set of meteorological analyses for assessing the atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of radioactive materials. In response to UNSCEAR's request, the WMO's Commission for Basic Systems convened a technical task team of experts from five countries (Austria, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States) in November 2011. The primary aim of this team was to examine how the use of meteorological analyses could improve atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition model (ATDM) calculations. As the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of the country in which the accident occurred, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO Task Team by providing its mesoscale analysis based on operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation and radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data in the standard WMO format (GRIB2). To evaluate the quality of the meteorological analyses, the WMO Task Team conducted test simulations with their regional ATDMs and different meteorological analyses. JMA developed a regional ATDM for radionuclides by modifying its operational regional atmospheric transport model, which had been previously used for photochemical oxidant predictions and volcanic ashfall forecasts. The modified model (hereafter referred to as JMA-RATM) newly implemented dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. The preliminary and revised calculations of JMA-RATM were conducted with a horizontal concentration and deposition grid resolution of 5 km and a unit source emission rate, in accordance with the Task Team

  18. Meso-Scale Modeling of Spall in a Heterogeneous Two-Phase Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Springer, Harry Keo [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2008-07-11

    The influence of the heterogeneous second-phase particle structure and applied loading conditions on the ductile spall response of a model two-phase material was investigated. Quantitative metallography, three-dimensional (3D) meso-scale simulations (MSS), and small-scale spall experiments provided the foundation for this study. Nodular ductile iron (NDI) was selected as the model two-phase material for this study because it contains a large and readily identifiable second- phase particle population. Second-phase particles serve as the primary void nucleation sites in NDI and are, therefore, central to its ductile spall response. A mathematical model was developed for the NDI second-phase volume fraction that accounted for the non-uniform particle size and spacing distributions within the framework of a length-scale dependent Gaussian probability distribution function (PDF). This model was based on novel multiscale sampling measurements. A methodology was also developed for the computer generation of representative particle structures based on their mathematical description, enabling 3D MSS. MSS were used to investigate the effects of second-phase particle volume fraction and particle size, loading conditions, and physical domain size of simulation on the ductile spall response of a model two-phase material. MSS results reinforce existing model predictions, where the spall strength metric (SSM) logarithmically decreases with increasing particle volume fraction. While SSM predictions are nearly independent of applied load conditions at lower loading rates, which is consistent with previous studies, loading dependencies are observed at higher loading rates. There is also a logarithmic decrease in SSM for increasing (initial) void size, as well. A model was developed to account for the effects of loading rate, particle size, matrix sound-speed, and, in the NDI-specific case, the probabilistic particle volume fraction model. Small-scale spall experiments were designed

  19. Minimal mesoscale model for protein-mediated vesiculation in clathrin-dependent endocytosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj J Agrawal

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In eukaryotic cells, the internalization of extracellular cargo via the endocytic machinery is an important regulatory process required for many essential cellular functions. The role of cooperative protein-protein and protein-membrane interactions in the ubiquitous endocytic pathway in mammalian cells, namely the clathrin-dependent endocytosis, remains unresolved. We employ the Helfrich membrane Hamiltonian together with surface evolution methodology to address how the shapes and energetics of vesicular-bud formation in a planar membrane are stabilized by presence of the clathrin-coat assembly. Our results identify a unique dual role for the tubulating protein epsin: multiple epsins localized spatially and orientationally collectively play the role of a curvature inducing capsid; in addition, epsin serves the role of an adapter in binding the clathrin coat to the membrane. Our results also suggest an important role for the clathrin lattice, namely in the spatial- and orientational-templating of epsins. We suggest that there exists a critical size of the coat above which a vesicular bud with a constricted neck resembling a mature vesicle is stabilized. Based on the observed strong dependence of the vesicle diameter on the bending rigidity, we suggest that the variability in bending stiffness due to variations in membrane composition with cell type can explain the experimentally observed variability on the size of clathrin-coated vesicles, which typically range 50-100 nm. Our model also provides estimates for the number of epsins involved in stabilizing a coated vesicle, and without any direct fitting reproduces the experimentally observed shapes of vesicular intermediates as well as their probability distributions quantitatively, in wildtype as well as CLAP IgG injected neuronal cell experiments. We have presented a minimal mesoscale model which quantitatively explains several experimental observations on the process of vesicle nucleation

  20. Artificial stereo presentation of meteorological data fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasler, A. F.; Desjardins, M.; Negri, A. J.

    1981-01-01

    The innate capability to perceive three-dimensional stereo imagery has been exploited to present multidimensional meteorological data fields. Variations on an artificial stereo technique first discussed by Pichel et al. (1973) are used to display single and multispectral images in a vivid and easily assimilated manner. Examples of visible/infrared artificial stereo are given for Hurricane Allen and for severe thunderstorms on 10 April 1979. Three-dimensional output from a mesoscale model also is presented. The images may be viewed through the glasses inserted in the February 1981 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, with the red lens over the right eye. The images have been produced on the interactive Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (AOIPS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. Stereo presentation is an important aid in understanding meteorological phenomena for operational weather forecasting, research case studies, and model simulations.

  1. Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, M.; Colacino, M.; Dalu, G. A.; Piervitali, E.; Ye, Z.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper the Authors discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the peninsula of Calabria, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., 'Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria', edited by A. Guerrini, in the series P. S., 'Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno' (CNR, Rome) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper

  2. Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldi, M.; Colacino, M.; Dalu, G. A.; Piervitali, E.; Ye, Z. [CNR, Rome (Italy). Ist. di Fisica dell`Atmosfera

    1998-07-01

    In this paper the Authors discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the peninsula of Calabria, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., `Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria`, edited by A. Guerrini, in the series P. S., `Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno` (CNR, Rome) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper.

  3. Experiments with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) using the synthetic relative humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chia-Bo

    1994-01-01

    This study is intended to examine the impact of the synthetic relative humidity on the model simulation of mesoscale convective storm environment. The synthetic relative humidity is derived from the National Weather Services surface observations, and non-conventional sources including aircraft, radar, and satellite observations. The latter sources provide the mesoscale data of very high spatial and temporal resolution. The synthetic humidity data is used to complement the National Weather Services rawinsonde observations. It is believed that a realistic representation of initial moisture field in a mesoscale model is critical for the model simulation of thunderstorm development, and the formation of non-convective clouds as well as their effects on the surface energy budget. The impact will be investigated based on a real-data case study using the mesoscale atmospheric simulation system developed by Mesoscale Environmental Simulations Operations, Inc. The mesoscale atmospheric simulation system consists of objective analysis and initialization codes, and the coarse-mesh and fine-mesh dynamic prediction models. Both models are a three dimensional, primitive equation model containing the essential moist physics for simulating and forecasting mesoscale convective processes in the atmosphere. The modeling system is currently implemented at the Applied Meteorology Unit, Kennedy Space Center. Two procedures involving the synthetic relative humidity to define the model initial moisture fields are considered. It is proposed to perform several short-range (approximately 6 hours) comparative coarse-mesh simulation experiments with and without the synthetic data. They are aimed at revealing the model sensitivities should allow us both to refine the specification of the observational requirements, and to develop more accurate and efficient objective analysis schemes. The goal is to advance the MASS (Mesoscal Atmospheric Simulation System) modeling expertise so that the model

  4. Monitoring and Modeling Microbial Sulfate Reduction and Inhibition in a Mesoscale Tank Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, C. G.; Wu, Y.; Li, L.; Piceno, Y. M.; Cheng, Y.; Bill, M.; Coates, J. D.; Andersen, G. L.; Conrad, M. E.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Subsurface biogeochemical cycling at the field-scale is controlled by a complex interplay between hydrological, geochemical and biological parameters. Mesoscale tank experiments can help to bridge the gap in complexity and understanding between well constrained batch and column experiments, and the interpretation of field data. In this contribution we present the results of a tank experiment investigating microbial sulfate reduction and inhibition in a porous media (20-30 mesh Ottawa sand). Microbial sulfate reduction is a process of wide biogeochemical significance, including in the context of oil reservoirs where the generation of sulfide can result in corrosion of steel infrastructure and additional downstream processing. Inhibition of sulfate reduction is therefore a high priority for this industry. Tracer experiments were conducted at the start and end of the experiment to constrain flow pathways and heterogeneities. The tank was inoculated with a San Francisco Bay mud/water enrichment utilizing acetate as the electron donor and continuous flow was initiated using bay-water with 10 mM acetate. Samples were taken from an array of 12 steel boreholes and showed spatiotemporal heterogeneities in the development of sulfidogenesis, reaching a peak of ~5 mM dissolved sulfide 71 days after inoculation. 10 mM perchlorate was then added to the influent to inhibit sulfidogenesis and dissolved sulfide decreased to ~0.03 mM by day 95. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved sulfate showed an increase in δ34S by ~10‰ compared with influent values but δ34S did not return to influent values by day 95, which may be indicative of the mixing between new and residual sulfate in the tank. Ongoing microbial community analyses are being used to help constrain microbial metabolisms. Finally, all the data is being integrated into a reactive transport model to better constrain the observed interplay between hydrology, geochemistry and biology.

  5. Reference Evapotranspiration Retrievals from a Mesoscale Model Based Weather Variables for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant K. Srivastava

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo and soil moisture deficit (SMD are vital for understanding the hydrological processes, particularly in the context of sustainable water use efficiency in the globe. Precise estimation of ETo and SMD are required for developing appropriate forecasting systems, in hydrological modeling and also in precision agriculture. In this study, the surface temperature downscaled from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to estimate ETo using the boundary conditions that are provided by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. In order to understand the performance, the Hamon’s method is employed to estimate the ETo using the temperature from meteorological station and WRF derived variables. After estimating the ETo, a range of linear and non-linear models is utilized to retrieve SMD. The performance statistics such as RMSE, %Bias, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE indicates that the exponential model (RMSE = 0.226; %Bias = −0.077; NSE = 0.616 is efficient for SMD estimation by using the Observed ETo in comparison to the other linear and non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.019–0.667; %Bias range = 2.821–6.894; NSE = 0.013–0.419 used in this study. On the other hand, in the scenario where SMD is estimated using WRF downscaled meteorological variables based ETo, the linear model is found promising (RMSE = 0.017; %Bias = 5.280; NSE = 0.448 as compared to the non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.022–0.707; %Bias range = −0.207–−6.088; NSE range = 0.013–0.149. Our findings also suggest that all the models are performing better during the growing season (RMSE range = 0.024–0.025; %Bias range = −4.982–−3.431; r = 0.245–0.281 than the non−growing season (RMSE range = 0.011–0.12; %Bias range = 33.073–32.701; r = 0.161–0.244 for SMD estimation.

  6. Do we need full mesoscale models to simulate the urban heat island? A study over the city of Barcelona.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    As most of the population lives in urban environments, the simulation of the urban climate has become an important part of the global climate change impact assessment. However, due to the high resolution required, these simulations demand a large amount of computational resources. Here we present a comparison between a simplified fast urban climate model (UrbClim) and a widely used full mesoscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, over the city of Barcelona. In order to check the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, both simulations were compared with station data and with land surface temperature observations retrieved by satellites, focusing on the urban heat island. The effect of changing the UrbClim boundary conditions was studied too, by using low resolution global reanalysis data (70 km) and a higher resolution forecast model (15 km). Finally, a strict comparison of the computational resources consumed by both models was carried out. Results show that, generally, the performance of the simple model is comparable to or better than the mesoscale model. The exception are the winds and the day-to-day correlation in the reanalysis driven run, but these problems disappear when taking the boundary conditions from a higher resolution global model. UrbClim was found to run 133 times faster than WRF, using 4x times higher resolution and, thus, it is an efficient solution for running long climate change simulations over large city ensembles.

  7. Modelling microphysical and meteorological controls on precipitation and cloud cellular structures in Southeast Pacific stratocumulus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Microphysical and meteorological controls on the formation of open and closed cellular structures in the Southeast Pacific are explored using model simulations based on aircraft observations during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx. The effectiveness of factors such as boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations, surface heat and moisture fluxes, large-scale vertical motion and solar heating in promoting drizzle and open cell formation for prescribed aerosol number concentrations is explored. For the case considered, drizzle and subsequent open cell formation over a broad region are more sensitive to the observed boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations (+0.9 g kg−1; −1 K than to a five-fold decrease in aerosol number concentration (150 vs. 30 mg−1. When embedding the perturbations in closed cells, local drizzle and pockets of open cell (POC formation respond faster to the aerosol reduction than to the moisture increase, but the latter generates stronger and more persistent drizzle. A local negative perturbation in temperature drives a mesoscale circulation that prevents local drizzle formation but promotes it in a remote area where lower-level horizontal transport of moisture is blocked and converges to enhance liquid water path. This represents a potential mechanism for POC formation in the Southeast Pacific stratocumulus region whereby the circulation is triggered by strong precipitation in adjacent broad regions of open cells. A simulation that attempts to mimic the influence of a coastally induced upsidence wave results in an increase in cloud water but this alone is insufficient to initiate drizzle. An increase of surface sensible heat flux is also effective in triggering local drizzle and POC formation.

    Both open and closed cells simulated with observed initial conditions exhibit distinct diurnal variations in cloud properties. A

  8. Mesoscale models for stacking faults, deformation twins and martensitic transformations: Linking atomistics to continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibey, Sandeep A.

    We present a hierarchical approach that spans multiple length scales to describe defect formation---in particular, formation of stacking faults (SFs) and deformation twins---in fcc crystals. We link the energy pathways (calculated here via ab initio density functional theory, DFT) associated with formation of stacking faults and twins to corresponding heterogeneous defect nucleation models (described through mesoscale dislocation mechanics). Through the generalized Peieirls-Nabarro model, we first correlate the width of intrinsic SFs in fcc alloy systems to their nucleation pathways called generalized stacking fault energies (GSFE). We then establish a qualitative dependence of twinning tendency in fee metals and alloys---specifically, in pure Cu and dilute Cu-xAl (x= 5.0 and 8.3 at.%)---on their twin-energy pathways called the generalized planar fault energies (GPFE). We also link the twinning behavior of Cu-Al alloys to their electronic structure by determining the effect of solute Al on the valence charge density redistribution at the SF through ab initio DFT. Further, while several efforts have been undertaken to incorporate twinning for predicting stress-strain response of fcc materials, a fundamental law for critical twinning stress has not yet emerged. We resolve this long-standing issue by linking quantitatively the twin-energy pathways (GPFE) obtained via ab initio DFT to heterogeneous, dislocation-based twin nucleation models. We establish an analytical expression that quantitatively predicts the critical twinning stress in fcc metals in agreement with experiments without requiring any empiricism at any length scale. Our theory connects twinning stress to twin-energy pathways and predicts a monotonic relation between stress and unstable twin stacking fault energy revealing the physics of twinning. We further demonstrate that the theory holds for fcc alloys as well. Our theory inherently accounts for directional nature of twinning which available

  9. Spatially distributed environmental fate modelling of terbuthylazine in a mesoscale agricultural catchment using passive sampler data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassmann, Matthias; Farlin, Julien; Gallé, Tom

    2017-04-01

    Agricultural application of herbicides often leads to significant herbicide losses to receiving rivers. The impact of agricultural practices on water pollution can be assessed by process-based reactive transport modelling using catchment scale models. Prior to investigations of management practices, these models have to be calibrated using sampling data. However, most previous studies only used concentrations at the catchment outlet for model calibration and validation. Thus, even if the applied model is spatially distributed, predicted spatial differences of pesticide loss cannot be directly compared to observations. In this study, we applied the spatially distributed reactive transport model Zin-AgriTra in the mesoscale (78 km2) catchment of the Wark River in Luxembourg in order to simulate concentrations of terbuthylazine in river water. In contrast to former studies, we used six sampling points, equipped with passive samplers, for pesticide model validation. Three samplers were located in the main channel of the river and three in smaller tributaries. At each sampling point, event mean concentration of six events from May to July 2011 were calculated by subtraction of baseflow-mass from total collected mass assuming time-proportional uptake by passive samplers. Continuous discharge measurements and high-resolution autosampling during events allowed for accurate load calculations at the outlet. Detailed information about maize cultivation in the catchment and nation-wide terbuthylazine application statistics (341 g/ha in the 3rd week of May) were used for a definition of the pesticide input function of the model. The hydrological model was manually calibrated to fit baseflow and spring/summer events. Substance fluxes were calibrated using a Latin Hypercube of physico-chemical substance characteristics as provided by the literature: surface soil half-lives of 10-35 d, Freundlich KOC of 150-330 ml/g, Freundlich n of 0.9 - 1 and adsorption/desorption kinetics of 20

  10. Assimilation of low-level wind in a high-resolution mesoscale model using the back and forth nudging algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-François Mahfouf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a new data assimilation algorithm called back and forth nudging (BFN is evaluated using a high-resolution numerical mesoscale model and simulated wind observations in the boundary layer. This new algorithm, of interest for the assimilation of high-frequency observations provided by ground-based active remote-sensing instruments, is straightforward to implement in a realistic atmospheric model. The convergence towards a steady-state profile can be achieved after five iterations of the BFN algorithm, and the algorithm provides an improved solution with respect to direct nudging. It is shown that the contribution of the nudging term does not dominate over other model physical and dynamical tendencies. Moreover, by running backward integrations with an adiabatic version of the model, the nudging coefficients do not need to be increased in order to stabilise the numerical equations. The ability of BFN to produce model changes upstream from the observations, in a similar way to 4-D-Var assimilation systems, is demonstrated. The capacity of the model to adjust to rapid changes in wind direction with the BFN is a first encouraging step, for example, to improve the detection and prediction of low-level wind shear phenomena through high-resolution mesoscale modelling over airports.

  11. Using Remote Sensing and Radar Meteorological Data to Support Watershed Assessments Comprising Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meteorological (MET) data required by watershed assessments comprising Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) traditionally have been provided by land-based weather (gauge) stations, although these data may not be the most appropriate for adequate spatial and temporal resolution...

  12. Optimizing Time Intervals of Meteorological Data Used with Atmospheric Dose Modeling at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpkins, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    Measured tritium oxide concentrations in air have been compared with calculated values using routine release Gaussian plume models for different time intervals of meteorological data. These comparisons determined an optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose models at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Meteorological data of varying time intervals (1-yr to 10-yr) were used for the comparison. Insignificant differences are seen in using a one-year database as opposed to a five-year database. Use of a ten-year database results in slightly more conservative results. For meteorological databases of length one to five years the mean ratio of predicted to measured tritium oxide concentrations is approximately 1.25 whereas for the ten-year meteorological database the ration is closer to 1.35. Currently at the Savannah River Site a meteorological database of five years duration is used for all dose models. This study suggests no substantially improved accuracy using meteorological files of shorter or longer time intervals

  13. Implementation of spectrum analysis in mesoscale modeling for wind energy assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stathopoulos, C.; Barranger, N.; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

    2012-01-01

    Spectral analysis of wind speed is a key parameter for the characterization of the physical processes generating the fields. Especially, the mesoscale power spectrum is an important measure of accuracy of wind forecasting and extreme wind estimation for modern wind farms, which are of the size....... This technique is initially applied to mesocale circulation within the Navarra region and at a second stage at higher resolution in an area encompassing CENER’s test Site in Alaiz mountain....

  14. Meteorological data assimilation for real-time emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, G.; Chan, S.T.

    1996-11-01

    The US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) provides real-time dose assessments of airborne pollutant releases. Diverse data assimilation techniques are required to meet the needs of a new generation of ARAC models and to take advantage of the rapidly expanding availability of meteorological data. We are developing a hierarchy of algorithms to provide gridded meteorological fields which can be used to drive dispersion codes or to provide initial fields for mesoscale models. Data to be processed include winds, temperature, moisture, and turbulence

  15. Evaluation of cloud prediction and determination of critical relative humidity for a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaman, N.L.; Guo, Z.; Ackerman, T.P. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Predictions of cloud occurrence and vertical location from the Pennsylvannia State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) were evaluated statistically using cloud observations obtained at Coffeyville, Kansas, as part of the Second International satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment campaign. Seventeen cases were selected for simulation during a November-December 1991 field study. MM5 was used to produce two sets of 36-km simulations, one with and one without four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), and a set of 12-km simulations without FDDA, but nested within the 36-km FDDA runs.

  16. On the influence of temporal and spatial resolution of aircraft emission inventories for mesoscale modeling of pollutant dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzkowiak, V.; Petry, H.; Ebel, A. [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    The sensitivity of a mesoscale chemistry transport model to the temporal and spatial resolution of aircraft emission inventories is evaluated. A statistical analysis of air traffic in the North-Atlantic flight corridor is carried out showing a highly variable, fine structured spatial distribution and a pronounced daily variation. Sensitivity studies comparing different emission scenarios reveal a strong dependency to the emission time and location of both transport and response in chemical formation of subsequent products. The introduction of a pronounced daily variation leads to a 30% higher ozone production in comparison to uniformly distributed emissions. (author) 9 refs.

  17. Modeling spatial patterns of wildfire susceptibility in southern California: Applications of MODIS remote sensing data and mesoscale numerical weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Philipp

    This dissertation investigates the potential of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and mesoscale numerical weather models for mapping wildfire susceptibility in general and for improving the Fire Potential Index (FPI) in southern California in particular. The dissertation explores the use of the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) from MODIS data for mapping relative greenness (RG) of vegetation and subsequently for computing the FPI. VARI-based RG was validated against in situ observations of live fuel moisture. The results indicate that VARI is superior to the previously used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for computing RG. FPI computed using VARI-based RG was found to outperform the traditional FPI when validated against historical fire detections using logistic regression. The study further investigates the potential of using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) on MODIS data for estimating live and dead fractions of vegetation. MESMA fractions were compared against in situ measurements and fractions derived from data of a high-resolution, hyperspectral sensor. The results show that live and dead fractions obtained from MODIS using MESMA are well correlated with the reference data. Further, FPI computed using MESMA-based green vegetation fraction in lieu of RG was validated against historical fire occurrence data. MESMA-based FPI performs at a comparable level to the traditional NDVI-based FPI, but can do so using a single MODIS image rather than an extensive remote sensing time series as required for the RG approach. Finally this dissertation explores the potential of integrating gridded wind speed data obtained from the MM5 mesoscale numerical weather model in the FPI. A new fire susceptibility index, the Wind-Adjusted Fire Potential Index (WAFPI), was introduced. It modifies the FPI algorithm by integrating normalized wind speed. Validating WAFPI against historical wildfire events using

  18. Multiscale investigations in a mesoscale catchment – hydrological modelling in the Gera catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Krause

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of the hydrological process-oriented model J2000 (J2K is part of a cooperation project between the Thuringian Environmental Agency (Thüringer Landesanstalt für Umwelt und Geologie – TLUG and the Department of Geoinformatics of the Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena focussing on the implementation of the EU water framework directive (WFD. In the first project phase J2K was parametrised and calibrated for a mesoscale catchment to quantify if it can be used as hydrological part of a multi-objective tool-box needed for the implementation of the WFD. The main objectives for that pilot study were: The development and application of a suitable distribution concept which provide the spatial data basis for various tasks and which reflects the specific physiogeographical variability and heterogeneity of river basins adequately. This distribution concept should consider the following constraints: The absolute number of spatial entities, which forms the basis for any distributive modelling should be as small as possible, but the spatial distributed factors, which controls quantitative and qualitative hydrological processes should not be generalised to much. The distribution concept of hydrological response units HRUs (Flügel, 1995 was selected and enhanced by a topological routing scheme (Staudenrausch, 2001 for the simulation of lateral flow processes. J2K should be calibrated for one subbasin of the pilot watershed only. Then the parameter set should be used on the other subbasins (referred as transfer basins to investigate and quantify the transferability of a calibrated model and potential spatial dependencies of its parameter set. In addition, potential structural problems in the process description should be identified by the transfer to basins which show a different process dominance as the one which was used for calibration does. Model calibration and selection of efficiency criteria for the quantification of the model quality

  19. Mesoscale modelling of the summer climate response of Moscow metropolitan area to urban expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, M. I.; Konstantinov, P. I.; Samsonov, T. E.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, the experience of applying a regional climate model to simulating the summer climate features of Moscow metropolitan area is examined. Also, an assessment is made of climate response to the implementation of a scenario of twofold city expansion. The model (COSMO-CLM) was adapted to the conditions of the region under investigation, supplemented by specific urban canopy parameterization and equipped with realistic parameters of urban surface. It was possible to successfully simulate the summer meteorological regime of Moscow region and, specifically, the temporal and spatial variability of the Moscow urban heat island (UHI). First results of the simulation for the city expansion show that the new urbanized areas on the periphery of Moscow have a heating impact on its central part, which leads to an increase of the UHI effect, on the average, of 10% (in the central area). In extreme heat events the temperature response to this scenario is much stronger, which may deteriorate human health and increase thermal stress. The simulation results also show that the city of Moscow is characterized by a positive anomaly of summer precipitation (in the city and its leeward side it increases by 10-30%). The scenario of urban expansion enhances this anomaly by 5-10% and increases its area.

  20. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over the South Asian maritime continent: vertical distributions and topographic effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, C.; Wang, J.; Yang, Z.; Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Chew, B.; Mahamod, M.

    2011-12-01

    The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used in conjunction with the FLAMBE MODIS-based biomass burning emissions to simulate the transport of smoke particles over the southeast Asian Maritime Continent (MC, 10°S - 10°N, 90°E-150°E) during September - October 2006 when the moderate El Nino event caused the largest region biomass burning outbreak since 1998. The modeled smoke transport pathway is found to be consistent with the MODIS true color images. Quantitatively, the modeled smoke particle mass can explain ~50% of temporal variability in 24-hour average observed PM10 at most ground stations, with linear correlation coefficients often larger than 0.7. Analysis of CALIOP data shows that smoke aerosols are primarily located within 3.5 km above the surface, and we found that smoke injection height in the model should be at ~800 m above surface to best match CALIOP observations downwind, instead of 2 km as used in the past literature. Comparison of CALIOP data in October 2006 with that in other years (2007-2010) reveals that the peak of aerosol extinction always occurs at ~1 km above surface, but smoke events in 2006 doubled the aerosol extinction from the surface to 3.5 km. Numerical experiments further show that the Tama Abu topography in Malaysia Peninsula has a significant impact on smoke transport and the surface in the vicinity. A conceptual model, based upon our analysis of two-month WRFchem simulation and satellite data, is proposed to explain the meteorological causes for smoke layers above the clouds as seen in the CALIOP data.

  1. Mesoscale Characterization of Fracture Properties of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Using a Lattice–Particle Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Montero-Chacón

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a lattice–particle model for the analysis of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC. In this approach, fibers are explicitly modeled and connected to the concrete matrix lattice via interface elements. The interface behavior was calibrated by means of pullout tests and a range for the bond properties is proposed. The model was validated with analytical and experimental results under uniaxial tension and compression, demonstrating the ability of the model to correctly describe the effect of fiber volume fraction and distribution on fracture properties of SFRC. The lattice–particle model was integrated into a hierarchical homogenization-based scheme in which macroscopic material parameters are obtained from mesoscale simulations. Moreover, a representative volume element (RVE analysis was carried out and the results shows that such an RVE does exist in the post-peak regime and until localization takes place. Finally, the multiscale upscaling strategy was successfully validated with three-point bending tests.

  2. Mesoscale Characterization of Fracture Properties of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Using a Lattice–Particle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Chacón, Francisco; Cifuentes, Héctor; Medina, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    This work presents a lattice–particle model for the analysis of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC). In this approach, fibers are explicitly modeled and connected to the concrete matrix lattice via interface elements. The interface behavior was calibrated by means of pullout tests and a range for the bond properties is proposed. The model was validated with analytical and experimental results under uniaxial tension and compression, demonstrating the ability of the model to correctly describe the effect of fiber volume fraction and distribution on fracture properties of SFRC. The lattice–particle model was integrated into a hierarchical homogenization-based scheme in which macroscopic material parameters are obtained from mesoscale simulations. Moreover, a representative volume element (RVE) analysis was carried out and the results shows that such an RVE does exist in the post-peak regime and until localization takes place. Finally, the multiscale upscaling strategy was successfully validated with three-point bending tests. PMID:28772568

  3. A Physically Based Horizontal Subgrid-scale Turbulent Mixing Parameterization for the Convective Boundary Layer in Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bowen; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng

    2017-04-01

    Compared to the representation of vertical turbulent mixing through various PBL schemes, the treatment of horizontal turbulence mixing in the boundary layer within mesoscale models, with O(10) km horizontal grid spacing, has received much less attention. In mesoscale models, subgrid-scale horizontal fluxes most often adopt the gradient-diffusion assumption. The horizontal mixing coefficients are usually set to a constant, or through the 2D Smagorinsky formulation, or in some cases based on the 1.5-order turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) closure. In this work, horizontal turbulent mixing parameterizations using physically based characteristic velocity and length scales are proposed for the convective boundary layer based on analysis of a well-resolved, wide-domain large-eddy simulation (LES). The proposed schemes involve different levels of sophistication. The first two schemes can be used together with first-order PBL schemes, while the third uses TKE to define its characteristic velocity scale and can be used together with TKE-based higher-order PBL schemes. The current horizontal mixing formulations are also assessed a priori through the filtered LES results to illustrate their limitations. The proposed parameterizations are tested a posteriori in idealized simulations of turbulent dispersion of a passive scalar. Comparisons show improved horizontal dispersion by the proposed schemes, and further demonstrate the weakness of the current schemes.

  4. Tracer experiment data sets for the verification of local and meso-scale atmospheric dispersion models including topographic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartori, E.; Schuler, W.

    1992-01-01

    Software and data for nuclear energy applications are acquired, tested and distributed by several information centres; in particular, relevant computer codes are distributed internationally by the OECD/NEA Data Bank (France) and by ESTSC and EPIC/RSIC (United States). This activity is coordinated among the centres and is extended outside the OECD area through an arrangement with the IAEA. This article proposes more specifically a scheme for acquiring, storing and distributing atmospheric tracer experiment data (ATE) required for verification of atmospheric dispersion models especially the most advanced ones including topographic effects and specific to the local and meso-scale. These well documented data sets will form a valuable complement to the set of atmospheric dispersion computer codes distributed internationally. Modellers will be able to gain confidence in the predictive power of their models or to verify their modelling skills. (au)

  5. The Influence of Temperature on Time-Dependent Deformation and Failure in Granite: A Mesoscale Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, T.; Zhou, G. L.; Heap, Michael J.; Zhu, W. C.; Chen, C. F.; Baud, Patrick

    2017-09-01

    An understanding of the influence of temperature on brittle creep in granite is important for the management and optimization of granitic nuclear waste repositories and geothermal resources. We propose here a two-dimensional, thermo-mechanical numerical model that describes the time-dependent brittle deformation (brittle creep) of low-porosity granite under different constant temperatures and confining pressures. The mesoscale model accounts for material heterogeneity through a stochastic local failure stress field, and local material degradation using an exponential material softening law. Importantly, the model introduces the concept of a mesoscopic renormalization to capture the co-operative interaction between microcracks in the transition from distributed to localized damage. The mesoscale physico-mechanical parameters for the model were first determined using a trial-and-error method (until the modeled output accurately captured mechanical data from constant strain rate experiments on low-porosity granite at three different confining pressures). The thermo-physical parameters required for the model, such as specific heat capacity, coefficient of linear thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity, were then determined from brittle creep experiments performed on the same low-porosity granite at temperatures of 23, 50, and 90 °C. The good agreement between the modeled output and the experimental data, using a unique set of thermo-physico-mechanical parameters, lends confidence to our numerical approach. Using these parameters, we then explore the influence of temperature, differential stress, confining pressure, and sample homogeneity on brittle creep in low-porosity granite. Our simulations show that increases in temperature and differential stress increase the creep strain rate and therefore reduce time-to-failure, while increases in confining pressure and sample homogeneity decrease creep strain rate and increase time-to-failure. We anticipate that the

  6. A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

    2006-01-01

    An intermediate-complexity, quasi-physically based, meteorological model (MicroMet) has been developed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 30-m to 1-km horizontal grid increment) atmospheric forcings required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The following eight variables, required to run most terrestrial models, are...

  7. Report on the use of stability parameters and mesoscale modelling in short-term prediction[Wind speed at wind farm sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badger, J.; Giebel, G.; Guo Larsen, X.; Skov Nielsen, T.; Aalborg Nielsen, H.; Madsen, Henrik; Toefting, J.

    2007-06-15

    In this report investigations using atmospheric stability measures to improve wind speed predictions at wind farm sites are described. Various stability measures have been calculated based on numerical weather prediction model output. Their ability to improve the wind speed predictions is assessed at three locations. One of the locations is in complex terrain. Mesoscale modelling has been carried out using KAMM at this location. The characteristics of the measured winds are captured well by the mesoscale modelling. It can be seen that the atmospheric stability plays an important role in determining how the flow is influence by the terrain. A prediction system employing a look-up table approach based on wind class simulations is presented. The mesoscale modelling results produced by KAMM were validated using an alternative mesoscale model called WRF. A good agreement in the results of KAMM and WRF was found. It is shown that including a stability parameter in physical and/or statistical modelling can improve the wind speed predictions at a wind farm site. A concept for the inclusion of a stability measure in the WPPT prediction system is presented, and the testing of the concept is outlined. (au)

  8. Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

    2018-01-01

    Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

  9. Screen-level non-GTS data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Milelli

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The forecast in areas of very complex topography, as for instance the Alpine region, is still a challenge even for the new generation of numerical weather prediction models which aim at reaching the km-scale. The problem is enhanced by a general lack of standard observations, which is even more evident over the southern side of the Alps. For this reason, it would be useful to increase the performance of the mathematical models by locally assimilating non-conventional data. Since in ARPA Piemonte there is the availability of a great number of non-GTS stations, it has been decided to assimilate the 2 m temperature, coming from this dataset, in the very-high resolution version of the COSMO model, which has a horizontal resolution of about 3 km, more similar to the average resolution of the thermometers. Four different weather situations have been considered, ranging from spring to winter, from cloudy to clear sky. The aim of the work is to investigate the effects of the assimilation of non-GTS data in order to create an operational very high-resolution analysis, but also to test the option of running in the future a very short-range forecast starting from these analyses (RUC or Rapid Update Cycle. The results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Mean Error and diurnal cycle of some surface variables such as 2 m temperature, 2 m relative humidity and 10 m wind intensity show a positive impact during the assimilation cycle which tends to dissipate a few hours after the end of it. Moreover, the 2 m temperature assimilation has a slightly positive or neutral impact on the vertical profiles of temperature, eventhough some calibration is needed for the precipitation field which is too much perturbed during the assimilation cycle, while it is unaffected in the forecast period. So the stability of the planetary boundary layer, on the one hand, has not been particularly improved by the new-data assimilation, but, on the other hand, it has not been destroyed

  10. New calibration technique for water-vapor Raman lidar combined with the GNSS precipitable water vapor and the Meso-Scale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakihara, H.; Yabuki, M.; Kitafuji, F.; Tsuda, T.; Tsukamoto, M.; Hasegawa, T.; Hashiguchi, H.; Yamamoto, M.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric water vapor plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and meteorology, with implications for climate change and severe weather. The Raman lidar technique is useful for observing water-vapor with high spatiotemporal resolutions. However, the calibration factor must be determined before observations. Because the calibration factor is generally evaluated by comparing Raman-signal results with those of independent measurement techniques (e.g., radiosonde), it is difficult to apply this technique to lidar sites where radiosonde observation cannot be carried out. In this study, we propose a new calibration technique for water-vapor Raman lidar using global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-derived precipitable water vapor (PWV) and Japan Meteorological Agency meso-scale model (MSM). The analysis was accomplished by fitting the GNSS-PWV to integrated water-vapor profiles combined with the MSM and the results of the lidar observations. The maximum height of the lidar signal applicable to this method was determined within 2.0 km by considering the signal noise mainly caused by low clouds. The MSM data was employed at higher regions that cannot apply the lidar data. This method can be applied to lidar signals lower than a limited height range due to weather conditions and lidar specifications. For example, Raman lidar using a laser operating in the ultraviolet C (UV-C) region has the advantage of daytime observation since there is no solar background radiation in the system. The observation range is, however, limited at altitudes lower than 1-3 km because of strong ozone absorption at the UV-C region. The new calibration technique will allow the utilization of various types of Raman lidar systems and provide many opportunities for calibration. We demonstrated the potential of this method by using the UV-C Raman lidar and GNSS observation data at the Shigaraki MU radar observatory (34°51'N, 136°06'E; 385m a.s.l.) of the Research Institute for Sustainable

  11. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  12. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    Sources of uncertainty associated with hydrological modelling were explored in relation to climatic change. The aim of the study was to compare and evaluate meteorological data sources used in conjunction with a hydrological model of a watershed in southwestern Quebec. Projected changes of mean annual flow were simulated. Five different sources of meteorological data from weather stations, reanalysis data, and 2 regional climate models were used to provide atmospheric driving boundary conditions for a limited area climate model. The hydrological model was calibrated with each of the datasets from 1961 to 1980. The model's different parameter sets were then used to model streamflow between 1981 and 2000. The resulting streamflow series were then compared with observed streamflows of the Quebec watershed. Results of the study demonstrated significant differences between the 5 datasets. Hydrological model parameters also influenced the accuracy of the model. Uncertainties related to climatic change were largely associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. It was concluded that further studies are needed to understand the influence of meteorological data in climatic change watershed studies. refs., tabs., figs

  13. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  14. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M Moore

    Full Text Available Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

  15. Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China

  16. Mesoscale modelling in China: Risø DTU numerical wind atlas calculation for NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    of the wind resource for Dongbei south of 50oN. The results of the numerical wind atlas show a wind resource over the region of interest modulated mainly by topographic features. These are principally elevated terrain features, giving high resources on exposed ridges and lower resources adjacent to the low......This document reports on the methods and findings of project “A01 Mesoscale Modelling”, part of the CMA component of the Wind Energy Development (WED) programme, focusing mainly on the methods and work undertaken by Risø DTU. The KAMM/WAsP methodology for numerical wind atlas calculation....... The major new aspects of the project were the large number of KAMM/WAsP sensitivity studies, comparison with WRF, and the CMA’s numerical wind atlas method (WERAS). Additionally, the reliability of the input data for the methodology, and the wave-number spectra properties of the output data were...

  17. Data assimilation of a ten-day period during June 1993 over the Southern Great Plains Site using a nested mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, J.; Guo, Y.R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been to obtain a complete representation of physical processes on the scale of a general circulation model (GCM) grid box in order to better parameterize radiative processes in these models. Since an observational network of practical size cannot be used alone to characterize the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site`s 3D structure and time development, data assimilation using the enhanced observations together with a mesoscale model is used to give a full 4D analysis at high resolution. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been applied over a ten-day continuous period in a triple-nested mode with grid sizes of 60, 20 and 6.67 in. The outer domain covers the United States` 48 contiguous states; the innermost is a 480-km square centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. A simulation has been run with data assimilation using the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) 60-km analyses from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The nested domains take boundary conditions from and feed back continually to their parent meshes (i.e., they are two-way interactive). As reported last year, this provided a simulation of the basic features of mesoscale events over the CART site during the period 16-26 June 1993 when an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) was under way.

  18. Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model for GABLS3: Impact of boundary-layer schemes, boundary conditions and spin-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleczek, M.A.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, specifically the performance of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations. For this purpose, Cabauw tower observations were used, with the study extending beyond the third GEWEX

  19. Simulating an extreme over-the-horizon optical propagation event over Lake Michigan using a coupled mesoscale modeling and ray tracing framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basu, S.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate simulation and forecasting of over-the-horizon propagation events are essential for various civilian and defense applications. We demonstrate the prowess of a newly proposed coupled mesoscale modeling and ray tracing framework in reproducing such an event. Wherever possible, routinely

  20. [Study on meteorological factors-based neural network model of malaria].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chun-yu; Xiong, Hong-yan; Yi, Dong; Chai, Guang-jun; Yang, Xiao-wei; Liu, Li

    2003-09-01

    In order to provide reliable data for strategies development on prevention, a meteorological factors-based predicating model for malaria forecast was studied. Data on malaria occurrence and climate changes from 1994 to 1999 in counties in Yunnan province was collected and analyzed with software packages of FoxPro 6.0 and Excel 5.0. The forecasting model for malaria occurrence was established, using the Neural Network Toolbox of Matlab 6.1 software package. In the studies of forecasting model, data of malaria and meteorological factors from 1994 to 1999 in Honghe state in Yunnan province was chosen. The meteorological factors included average monthly pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, monthly maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, rainfall, rainday, evaporation and sunshine hours in the study. The established forecasting model was also tested and verified. The BP network model was established according to data of diseases and meteorological factors from Honghe state in Yunnan province. After training the neural network for 100 times, the error of performance decreased from 3.23608 to 0.035862. Verified by fact data of malaria, the efficiency of malaria forecasting was 84.85%. Neural network model was effective for forecasting malaria. It showed advantages as: strong ability for analysis, lower claim for data, convenient and easy to apply etc. Neural network model might be used as a new method for malaria forecasting.

  1. A high space-time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche region, France

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nord, Guillaume; Boudevillain, Brice; Berne, Alexis; Branger, Flora; Braud, Isabelle; Dramais, Guillaume; Gérard, Simon; Coz, Le Jérôme; Legoût, Cédric; Molinié, Gilles; Teuling, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 2011-31 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment

  2. Mesoscale modeling of the water vapor cycle at Mawrth Vallis: a Mars2020 and ExoMars exploration rovers high-priority landing site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-García, Jorge

    2017-04-01

    Introduction: The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) was used to predict meteorological conditions that are likely to be encountered by the Mars 2020 (NASA) Rover at several of their respective proposed landing sites during entry, descent, and landing at Ls5 [1] and by the ExoMars (ESA) Rover at one of the final landing sites. MRAMS is ideally suited for this type of investigation; the model is explicitly designed to simu-late Mars' atmospheric circulations at the mesoscale and smaller with realistic, high-resolution surface proper-ties [2, 3]. One of the sights studied for both rovers was Mawrth Vallis (MV), an ancient water outflow channel with light colored clay-rich rocks in the mid-latitude north hemisphere (Oxia Palus quadrangle). MV is the northernmost of the Mars2020 and ExoMars landing sites and the closest to the northern polar cap water source. The primary source of water vapor to the atmosphere is the northern polar cap during the northern summer. In order to highlight MV habitability implications, additional numerical experiments at Ls90, 140 and 180, highest column abundance of water vapor is found over MV [4], were performed to study how the atmospheric circulation connects MV with the polar water source. Once the winter CO2 retreats, the underlying polar water ice is exposed and begins to sublimate. The water is transported equatorward where it is manifested in the tropical aphelion cloud belt. If transport is assumed to be the result of the summer Hadley Cell, then the polar water is carried aloft in the northern high latitude rising branch before moving equatorward and eventually toward the southern high latitudes. Thus, the mean meridional summer circulation precludes a direct water vapor connection between MV and the polar source. Around the equinoxes (Ls0 and Ls180), there is a brief transition period where the rising branch quickly crosses from one hemisphere into the other as it migrates to its more typical solstitial location

  3. Advantages of using a fast urban boundary layer model as compared to a full mesoscale model to simulate the urban heat island of Barcelona

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Díez, Markel; Lauwaet, Dirk; Hooyberghs, Hans; Ballester, Joan; De Ridder, Koen; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-12-01

    As most of the population lives in urban environments, the simulation of the urban climate has become a key problem in the framework of the climate change impact assessment. However, the high computational power required by high-resolution (sub-kilometre) fully coupled land-atmosphere simulations using urban canopy parameterisations is a severe limitation. Here we present a study on the performance of UrbClim, an urban boundary layer model designed to be several orders of magnitude faster than a full-fledged mesoscale model. The simulations are evaluated with station data and land surface temperature observations from satellites, focusing on the urban heat island (UHI). To explore the advantages of using a simple model like UrbClim, the results are compared with a simulation carried out with a state-of-the-art mesoscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, which includes an urban canopy model. This comparison is performed with driving data from ERA-Interim reanalysis (70 km). In addition, the effect of using driving data from a higher-resolution forecast model (15 km) is explored in the case of UrbClim. The results show that the performance of reproducing the average UHI in the simple model is generally comparable to the one in the mesoscale model when driven with reanalysis data (70 km). However, the simple model needs higher-resolution data from the forecast model (15 km) to correctly reproduce the variability of the UHI at a daily scale, which is related to the wind speed. This lack of accuracy in reproducing the wind speed, especially the sea-breeze daily cycle, which is strong in Barcelona, also causes a warm bias in the reanalysis driven UrbClim run. We conclude that medium-complexity models as UrbClim are a suitable tool to simulate the urban climate, but that they are sensitive to the ability of the input data to represent the local wind regime. UrbClim is a well suited model for impact and adaptation studies at city scale without high

  4. Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann-Stanzer, K.; Stenzel, S.

    2009-04-01

    Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. Uncertainties in the meteorological input together with incorrect estimates of the source play a critical role for the model results. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program at the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. This presentation gives a short introduction to the project and presents the results of task 1 (meteorological input). The results of task 2 are presented by Stenzel and Baumann-Stanzer in this session. For the aim of this project, the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) was used. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data were calculated with 1 km horizontal resolution and

  5. Modeling of mesoscale dispersion effect on the piezoresistivity of carbon nanotube-polymer nanocomposites via 3D computational multiscale micromechanics methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Xiang; Seidel, Gary D; Chaurasia, Adarsh K; Oliva-Avilés, Andrés I; Ku-Herrera, José J; Avilés, Francis

    2015-01-01

    In uniaxial tension and compression experiments, carbon nanotube (CNT)-polymer nanocomposites have demonstrated exceptional mechanical and coupled electrostatic properties in the form of piezoresistivity. In order to better understand the correlation of the piezoresistive response with the CNT dispersion at the mesoscale, a 3D computational multiscale micromechanics model based on finite element analysis is constructed to predict the effective macroscale piezoresistive response of CNT/polymer nanocomposites. The key factors that may contribute to the overall piezoresistive response, i.e. the nanoscale electrical tunneling effect, the inherent CNT piezoresistivity and the CNT mesoscale network effect are incorporated in the model based on a 3D multiscale mechanical–electrostatic coupled code. The results not only explain how different nanoscale mechanisms influence the overall macroscale piezoresistive response through the mesoscale CNT network, but also give reason and provide bounds for the wide range of gauge factors found in the literature offering insight regarding how control of the mesoscale CNT networks can be used to tailor nanocomposite piezoresistive response. (paper)

  6. Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, X.

    2017-12-01

    A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.

  7. Crop growth modelling and crop yield forecasting using satellite derived meteorological inputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Diepen, van K.

    2006-01-01

    One of the key challenges for operational crop monitoring and yield forecasting using crop models is to find spatially representative meteorological input data. Currently, weather inputs are often interpolated from low density networks of weather stations or derived from output from coarse (0.5

  8. Appraisal of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables and their Applicability for Discharge Prediction: Prognostic Approach for Ungauged Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, P. K.; Han, D.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Bray, M.; Islam, T.; Petropoulos, G.; Gupta, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-meteorological variables such as Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for discharge prediction. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. The mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting model) can be used for prediction of hydro-meteorological variables. However, hydro-meteorologists would like to know how well the downscaled global data products are as compared to ground based measurements and whether it is possible to use the downscaled data for ungauged catchments. Even with gauged catchments, most of the stations have only rain and flow gauges installed. Measurements of other weather hydro-meteorological variables such as solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, and dew point are usually missing and thus complicate the problems. In this study, for downscaling the global datasets, the WRF model is setup over the Brue catchment with three nested domains (D1, D2 and D3) of horizontal grid spacing of 81 km, 27 km and 9 km are used. The hydro-meteorological variables are downscaled using the WRF model from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets and subsequently used for the ETo estimation using the Penman Monteith equation. The analysis of weather variables and precipitation are compared against the ground based datasets, which indicate that the datasets are in agreement with the observed datasets for complete monitoring period as well as during the seasons except precipitation whose performance is poorer in comparison to the measured rainfall. After a comparison, the WRF estimated precipitation and ETo are then used as a input parameter in the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) for discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation are also taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction following the Generalised

  9. Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Joanne; Pierce, H.; Ritchie, L.; Liu, T.; Brueske, K.; Velden, C.; Halverson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June

  10. Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of the development and application of online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models, with a focus on five representative models developed in the US including GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM. These models represent the current status and/or the state-of-the science treatments of online-coupled models worldwide. Their major model features, typical applications, and physical/chemical treatments are compared with a focus on model treatments of aerosol and cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology and aerosol indirect effects are illustrated with case studies for some of these models. Future research needs for model development, improvement, application, as well as major challenges for online-coupled models are discussed.

  11. Bridging the Radiative Transfer Models for Meteorology and Solar Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.

    2017-12-01

    Radiative transfer models are used to compute solar radiation reaching the earth surface and play an important role in both meteorology and solar energy studies. Therefore, they are designed to meet the needs of specialized applications. For instance, radiative transfer models for meteorology seek to provide more accurate cloudy-sky radiation compared to models used in solar energy that are geared towards accuracy in clear-sky conditions associated with the maximum solar resource. However, models for solar energy applications are often computationally faster, as the complex solution of the radiative transfer equation is parameterized by atmospheric properties that can be acquired from surface- or satellite-based observations. This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to combine the advantages of radiative transfer models designed for meteorology and solar energy applictions. A fast all-sky radiation model, FARMS-NIT, was developed to efficiently compute narrowband all-sky irradiances over inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. This new model utilizes the optical preperties from a solar energy model, SMARTS, to computes surface radiation by considering all possible paths of photon transmission and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. For cloudy-sky conditions, cloud bidirectional transmittance functions (BTDFs) are provided by a precomputed lookup table (LUT) by LibRadtran. Our initial results indicate that FARMS-NIT has an accuracy that is similar to LibRadtran, a highly accurate multi-stream model, but is significantly more efficient. The development and validation of this model will be presented.

  12. A Novel Observation-Guided Approach for Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by the DOE ACME Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Z.; Ma, P. L.; Hardin, J. C.; Houze, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the largest type of convective storms that develop when convection aggregates and induces mesoscale circulation features. Over North America, MCSs contribute over 60% of the total warm-season precipitation and over half of the extreme daily precipitation in the central U.S. Our recent study (Feng et al. 2016) found that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in this region are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lived MCSs*. To date, global climate models typically do not run at a resolution high enough to explicitly simulate individual convective elements and may not have adequate process representations for MCSs, resulting in a large deficiency in projecting changes of the frequency of extreme precipitation events in future climate. In this study, we developed a novel observation-guided approach specifically designed to evaluate simulated MCSs in the Department of Energy's climate model, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME). The ACME model has advanced treatments for convection and subgrid variability and for this study is run at 25 km and 100 km grid spacings. We constructed a robust MCS database consisting of over 500 MCSs from 3 warm-season observations by applying a feature-tracking algorithm to 4-km resolution merged geostationary satellite and 3-D NEXRAD radar network data over the Continental US. This high-resolution MCS database is then down-sampled to the 25 and 100 km ACME grids to re-characterize key MCS properties. The feature-tracking algorithm is adapted with the adjusted characteristics to identify MCSs from ACME model simulations. We demonstrate that this new analysis framework is useful for evaluating ACME's warm-season precipitation statistics associated with MCSs, and provides insights into the model process representations related to extreme precipitation events for future improvement. *Feng, Z., L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze, C. D. Burleyson

  13. Model selection for local and regional meteorological normalisation of background concentrations of tropospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libiseller, Claudia; Grimvall, Anders

    Meteorological normalisation of time series of air quality data aims to extract anthropogenic signals by removing natural fluctuations in the collected data. We showed that the currently used procedures to select normalisation models can cause over-fitting to observed data and undesirable smoothing of anthropogenic signals. A simulation study revealed that the risk of such effects is particularly large when: (i) the observed data are serially correlated, (ii) the normalisation model is selected by leave-one-out cross-validation, and (iii) complex models, such as artificial neural networks, are fitted to data. When the size of the test sets used in the cross-validation was increased, and only moderately complex linear models were fitted to data, the over-fitting was less pronounced. An empirical study of the predictive ability of different normalisation models for tropospheric ozone in Finland confirmed the importance of using appropriate model selection strategies. Moderately complex regional models involving contemporaneous meteorological data from a network of stations were found to be superior to single-site models as well as more complex regional models involving both contemporaneous and time-lagged meteorological data from a network of stations.

  14. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  15. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    factors are calculated. Secondly, the meteorological data are classified into several states using an improved Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm. Then the Markov chain is used to model the chronological characteristics of meteorological states and wind speed. The proposed model was proved to be more accurate...

  16. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on the Neutron Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-22

    from the readings online so for the purpose of the model estimation the four missing values were imputed. Then all the data in MATLAB was placed into a...Naval Academy’s machine shop to be manufactured. By 21SEP17, the brackets where finished and ready to be mounted the station. But due to having... shop made it to those dimensions. When the brackets where attempted to be placed on the pipe they would not fit because the pipe was really a 178

  17. Simulation of Severe Local Storm by Mesoscale Model MM5 and Validation Using Data from Different Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosenjit Chatterjee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available During premonsoon season (March to May convective developments in various forms are common phenomena over the Gangetic West Bengal, India. In the present work, simulation of wind squall on three different dates has been attempted with the help of mesoscale model MM5. The combination of various physical schemes in MM5 is taken as that found in a previous work done to simulate severe local storms over the Gangetic West Bengal. In the present study the model successfully simulates wind squall showing pressure rise, wind shift, wind surge, temperature drop, and heavy rainfall, in all cases. Convective cloud development and rainfall simulation by the model has been validated by the corresponding product from Doppler Weather Radar located at Kolkata and TRMM satellite product 3B42 (V6, respectively. It is found that the model is capable of capturing heavy rainfall pattern with up to three-hour time gap existing between simulation and observation of peak rainfall occurrence. In all simulations there is spatial as well as temporal shift from observation.

  18. A coupled kinetic Monte Carlo–finite element mesoscale model for thermoelastic martensitic phase transformations in shape memory alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ying; Schuh, Christopher A.

    2015-01-01

    A mesoscale modeling framework integrating thermodynamics, kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) and finite element mechanics (FEM) is developed to simulate displacive thermoelastic transformations between austenite and martensite in shape memory alloys (SMAs). The model is based on a transition state approximation for the energy landscape of the two phases under loading or cooling, which leads to the activation energy and rate for transformation domains incorporating local stress states. The evolved stress state after each domain transformation event is calculated by FEM, and is subsequently used in the stochastic KMC algorithm to determine the next domain to transform. The model captures transformation stochasticity, and predicts internal phase and stress distributions and evolution throughout the entire incubation, nucleation and growth process. It also relates the critical transformation stresses or temperatures to internal activation energies. It therefore enables quantitative exploration of transformation dynamics and transformation–microstructure interactions. The model is used to simulate superelasticity (mechanically induced transformation) under both load control and strain control in single-crystal SMAs under uniaxial tension

  19. Reduced fractal model for quantitative analysis of averaged micromotions in mesoscale: Characterization of blow-like signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigmatullin, Raoul R.; Toboev, Vyacheslav A.; Lino, Paolo; Maione, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A new approach describes fractal-branched systems with long-range fluctuations. •A reduced fractal model is proposed. •The approach is used to characterize blow-like signals. •The approach is tested on data from different fields. -- Abstract: It has been shown that many micromotions in the mesoscale region are averaged in accordance with their self-similar (geometrical/dynamical) structure. This distinctive feature helps to reduce a wide set of different micromotions describing relaxation/exchange processes to an averaged collective motion, expressed mathematically in a rather general form. This reduction opens new perspectives in description of different blow-like signals (BLS) in many complex systems. The main characteristic of these signals is a finite duration also when the generalized reduced function is used for their quantitative fitting. As an example, we describe quantitatively available signals that are generated by bronchial asthmatic people, songs by queen bees, and car engine valves operating in the idling regime. We develop a special treatment procedure based on the eigen-coordinates (ECs) method that allows to justify the generalized reduced fractal model (RFM) for description of BLS that can propagate in different complex systems. The obtained describing function is based on the self-similar properties of the different considered micromotions. This kind of cooperative model is proposed here for the first time. In spite of the fact that the nature of the dynamic processes that take place in fractal structure on a mesoscale level is not well understood, the parameters of the RFM fitting function can be used for construction of calibration curves, affected by various external/random factors. Then, the calculated set of the fitting parameters of these calibration curves can characterize BLS of different complex systems affected by those factors. Though the method to construct and analyze the calibration curves goes beyond the scope

  20. Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For

  1. Permeability of fiber reinforcements for liquid composite molding: Sequential multi-scale investigations into numerical flow modeling on the micro- and meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchini, Timothy John Franklin

    Composites are complex material mixtures, known to have high amounts of variability, with unique properties at the micro-, meso-, and macro-scales. In the context of advanced textile composite reinforcements, micro-scale refers to aligned fibers and toughening agents in a disordered arrangement; meso-scale is the woven, braided, or stitched fabric geometry (which compacts to various volume fractions); and macro-scale is the component or sub-component being produced for a mechanical application. The Darcy-based permeability is an important parameter for modeling and understanding the flow profile and fill times for liquid composite molding. Permeability of composite materials can vary widely from the micro- to macro-scales. For example, geometric factors like compaction and ply layup affect the component permeability at the meso- and macro-scales. On the micro-scale the permeability will be affected by the packing arrangement of the fibers and fiber volume fraction. On any scale, simplifications to the geometry can be made to treat the fiber reinforcement as a porous media. Permeability has been widely studied in both experimental and analytical frameworks, but less attention has focused on the ability of numerical tools to predict the permeability of reinforced composite materials. This work aims at (1) predicting permeability at various scales of interest and (2) developing a sequential, multi-scale, numerical modeling approach on the micro- and meso-scales. First, a micro-scale modeling approach is developed, including a geometry generation tool and a fluids-based numerical permeability solver. This micro-scale model included all physical fibers and derived the empirical permeability constant directly though numerical simulation. This numerical approach was compared with literature results for perfect packing arrangements, and the results were shown to be comparable with previous work. The numerical simulations described here also extended these previous

  2. Modeling analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over China: pollution characteristics, and meteorological and dust impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Fu, Xiao; Wang, Shuxiao; Chang, Xing; Cai, Siyi; Xing, Jia; Hao, Jiming

    2016-01-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) are the predominant components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and have significant impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) was modified to incorporate SO2 heterogeneous reactions on the surface of dust particles. The revised model was then used to simulate the spatiotemporal characteristics of SIA over China and analyze the impacts of meteorological factors and d...

  3. Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

  4. Radiation-induced aging of PDMS Elastomer TR-55: a summary of constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiti, A [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Weisgraber, T. H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dinh, L. N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-16

    Filled and cross-linked elastomeric rubbers are versatile network materials with a multitude of applications ranging from artificial organs and biomedical devices to cushions, coatings, adhesives, interconnects, and seismic-isolation-, thermal-, and electrical barriers. External factors like mechanical stress, temperature fluctuations, or radiation are known to create chemical changes in such materials that can directly affect the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the polymer between cross-links and alter the structural and mechanical properties. From a Materials Science point of view it is highly desirable to understand, effect, and manipulate such property changes in a controlled manner. In this report we summarize our modeling efforts on a polysiloxane elastomer TR-55, which is an important component in several of our systems, and representative of a wide class of filled rubber materials. The primary aging driver in this work has been γ-radiation, and a variety of modeling approaches have been employed, including constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models. The work utilizes diverse experimental data, including mechanical stress-strain and compression set measurements, as well as MWD measurements using multiquantum NMR.

  5. Simulating the effects of crop growth on land-atmosphere interactions using a coupled mesoscale-dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Prateek; Baidya Roy, Somnath; Kumari, Sarita; Srivastava, Ankur

    2017-04-01

    Land and atmospheric dynamics are tightly coupled. Crop growth affects local micrometeorology by influencing the exchanges of heat, moisture and momentum between the land and the atmosphere. In this study, a dynamic crop growth module is incorporated in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to explore effects of crop growth on land-atmosphere interactions during the growing season. The crop module is derived from the crop model SUCROS that simulates carbon assimilation by photosynthesis and its allocation into the roots, stem, leaves and storage organs of crops. The crop module is first run in a stand-alone mode and calibrated to match observed LAI from soybean fields in Nebraska and Illinois and spring wheat fields in northern India. Next, it is incorporated as a submodule in the Noah-MP land surface module of WRF. In this coupled form, the fluxes from the land surface are simulated by Noah-MP at every model timestep while the LAI and root depth required for flux calculations are updated daily by the dynamic crop submodule. This coupled model provides better simulations of crop phenology than the generic dynamic vegetation module in Noah-MP. Moreover, the coupled model is able to simulate feedbacks on surface air temperature and humidity associated with changing Bowen Ratio due to crop growth in contrast with prescribed-leaf area index (LAI)-driven methods that is typical in mesoscale models. We have introduced crop yield as a model output that potentially expands the capability of this model to provide seasonal-scale weather and crop yield outlooks.

  6. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

    2010-01-01

    Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

  7. A simple estimation model of aerosol optical thickness based on meteorological station observed atmospheric visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhu; Chen, Jianyu; Gong, Shaoqi; Mao, Zhihua; Hao, Zengzhou

    2013-09-01

    Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and atmospheric visibility are two important weather parameters. AOT reflects the state of the atmosphere,-and atmospheric visibility is widely used in various aspects of social life. Generally, it is reported in literatures that both of them are affected by Air Pollutants and other meteorological factors, such as surface pressure, ground temperature, wind speed, precipitation. In this paper, a statistic relationship expression is established between AOT and atmospheric visibility on the basis of the point-to-point meteorological observations. In the national region, the correlation between atmospheric visibility and weather factors indicates that the surface pressure has great influence on atmospheric visibility all the year round. And the influence based on precipitation is more obvious in spring and summer, mean-while wind speed and temperature play important roles in autumn and winter. A significant positive correlation was found between AOT and API. To express the relationship between atmospheric visibility and AOT, some computable models were utilized. According to the accuracy analysis, the cubic curve model and the power function model are more accurate. And both RMSE (root-mean-square error) of them is higher than 0.47. But the coefficient of cubic curve is more complex in practice. Finally, a simple estimation model of aerosol optical thickness based on meteorological station observed atmospheric visibility was conducted using power function. The Pearson coefficient between calculation of power function and observation is 0.73.

  8. Lewis Fry Richardson and his Contributions to Mathematics, Meteorology, and Models of Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, J. C. R.

    The life and major scientific contributions of Lewis Fry Richardson (1881-1953) are reviewed, with particular emphasis on his pioneering work in numerical analysis, meteorology, and numerical weather prediction. His later work on mathematical modeling of psychology, causes of conflict, and the statistics of wars is outlined in terms understandable to fluid dynamicists. It is included because it led to Richardson's discovery of one aspect of fractals, an analytical technique now recognized as valuable in the study of complex fluid motions.

  9. Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Kleine Deters, Jan; Zalakeviciute, Rasa; Gonzalez, Mario; Rybarczyk, Yves

    2017-01-01

    Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5). Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thu...

  10. Large Eddy Simulation Embedded in Mesoscale Modeling of Convective Boundary Layers observed at the ARM SGP Central Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun, J.; Kang, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    We assess the performance of large eddy simulation (LES) embedded in a multi-nested mesoscale modeling framework with respect to observations at the Central Facility (CF) site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP). Specifically for three different fair-weather days, evaluated are the temporal evolutions of temperature and water vapor in the afternoon convective boundary layer (CBL). From the two aspects of local surface and background atmospheric conditions, the causes of the deviations of LES results from observations are sought. In particular, we focus on the factors that critically influence on the surface and atmospheric conditions for LES through the multi-nested domains from grid spacing of 12 km down to 50 m. Also we identify the domain at the resolution of the so called "terra incognita", where the effective resolution or the spatial filter is comparable to the length scale of energy-containing turbulent eddies. The behavior of the "terra-incognita" domain and its influence on LES are investigated.

  11. Electronic and Magnetic Properties of Transition-Metal Oxide Nanocomposites: A Tight-Binding Modeling at Mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Yuan-Yen; Zhu, Jian-Xin

    Transition metal oxides (TMOs) exhibit many emergent phenomena ranging from high-temperature superconductivity and giant magnetoresistance to magnetism and ferroelectricity. In addition, when TMOs are interfaced with each other, new functionalities can arise, which are absent in individual components. In this talk, I will present an overview on our recent efforts in theoretical understanding of the electronic and magnetic properties TMO nanocomposites. In particular, I will introduce our recently developed tight-binding modeling of these properties arising from the interplay of competing interactions at the interfaces of planar and pillar nanocomposites. Our theoretical tool package will provide a unique capability to address the emergent phenomena in TMO nanocomposites and their mesoscale response to such effects like strain and microstructures at the interfaces, and ultimately help establish design principles of new multifunctionality with TMOs. This work was carried out under the auspices of the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy at LANL under Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25396, and was supported by the LANL LDRD Program.

  12. On the forcing mechanisms of mesocyclones in the eastern Weddell Sea region, Antarctica: Process studies using a mesoscale numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Klein

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available Development mechanisms of Antarctic mesocyclones in the eastern Weddell Sea area are examined by means of simulations with a mesoscale model using different idealized initial conditions. In one of the experiments, a mesocyclone develops over an area of open water close to the coast of the Antarctic continent. The forcing mechanisms of this mesocyclogenesis are investigated by means of sensitivity studies in which certain physical processes and the relevance of the surface conditions topography, sea surface temperature and sea ice coverage are examined. The sensitivity experiments show that the simulated mesocyclone is forced by an interaction of several forcing mechanisms at different stages of the development rather than by a single mechanism. The topography of the eastern Weddell Sea region and the summertime coastal polynia are shown to be of great importance for the mesocyclogenesis. A suitable synoptic-scale flow is necessary to support the katabatic flow over the sloped ice sheet, and to enhance the generation of cyclonic vorticity due to vertical stretching for the initial mesocyclogenesis. The diabatic process of the convergence of the sensible and latent heat fluxes in the boundary layer over the coastal polynia then becomes the dominant forcing mechanism for the further development of the mesocyclone.

  13. Predicting nitrate discharge dynamics in mesoscale catchments using the lumped StreamGEM model and Bayesian parameter inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Simon James Roy; Wöhling, Thomas; Rode, Michael; Stenger, Roland

    2017-09-01

    The common practice of infrequent (e.g., monthly) stream water quality sampling for state of the environment monitoring may, when combined with high resolution stream flow data, provide sufficient information to accurately characterise the dominant nutrient transfer pathways and predict annual catchment yields. In the proposed approach, we use the spatially lumped catchment model StreamGEM to predict daily stream flow and nitrate concentration (mg L-1 NO3-N) in four contrasting mesoscale headwater catchments based on four years of daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and stream flow measurements, and monthly or daily nitrate concentrations. Posterior model parameter distributions were estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling code DREAMZS and a log-likelihood function assuming heteroscedastic, t-distributed residuals. Despite high uncertainty in some model parameters, the flow and nitrate calibration data was well reproduced across all catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency against Log transformed data, NSL, in the range 0.62-0.83 for daily flow and 0.17-0.88 for nitrate concentration). The slight increase in the size of the residuals for a separate validation period was considered acceptable (NSL in the range 0.60-0.89 for daily flow and 0.10-0.74 for nitrate concentration, excluding one data set with limited validation data). Proportions of flow and nitrate discharge attributed to near-surface, fast seasonal groundwater and slow deeper groundwater were consistent with expectations based on catchment geology. The results for the Weida Stream in Thuringia, Germany, using monthly as opposed to daily nitrate data were, for all intents and purposes, identical, suggesting that four years of monthly nitrate sampling provides sufficient information for calibration of the StreamGEM model and prediction of catchment dynamics. This study highlights the remarkable effectiveness of process based, spatially lumped modelling with commonly available monthly

  14. Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kleine Deters

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5. Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thus, this paper proposes a machine learning approach based on six years of meteorological and pollution data analyses to predict the concentrations of PM2.5 from wind (speed and direction and precipitation levels. The results of the classification model show a high reliability in the classification of low (25 µg/m3 and low (<10 µg/m3 versus moderate (10–25 µg/m3 concentrations of PM2.5. A regression analysis suggests a better prediction of PM2.5 when the climatic conditions are getting more extreme (strong winds or high levels of precipitation. The high correlation between estimated and real data for a time series analysis during the wet season confirms this finding. The study demonstrates that the use of statistical models based on machine learning is relevant to predict PM2.5 concentrations from meteorological data.

  15. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  16. Coupling of Important Physical Processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer between Meteorological and Chemistry Models for Regional to Continental Scale Air Quality Forecasting: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pius Lee

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A consensus among many Air Quality (AQ modelers is that planetary boundary layer processes are the most influential processes for surface concentrations of air pollutants. Due to the many uncertainties intrinsically embedded in the parameterization of these processes, parameter optimization is often employed to determine an optimal set or range of values of the sensitive parameters. In this review study, we focus on the two of the most important physical processes: turbulent mixing and dry deposition. An emphasis was put on surveying AQ models that have been proven to resolve meso-scale features and cover a large geographical area, such as large regional, continental, or trans-continental boundary extents. Five AQ models were selected. Four of the models were run in real-time operational forecasting settings for continental scale AQ. The models use various forms of level 2.5 closure algorithms to calculate turbulent mixing. Tuning and parameter optimization has been used to tailor these algorithms to better suit their AQ models which are typically comprised of a coupled chemistry and meteorology model. Longer forecasts and long lead-times are inevitably under increasing demand for these models. Land Surface Models that have the capability for soil moisture and temperature data assimilation will have an advantage to constrain the key variables that govern the partitioning of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and thus attain the potential to perform better in longer forecasts than those models that do not have this capability. Dry deposition velocity is a very significant model parameter that governs a major surface exchange activity. An exploratory study has been conducted to see the upper bound of roughness length in the similarity equation for aerodynamic resistance.

  17. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  18. A meteorological potential forecast model for acid rain in Fujian Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yi Yong; Lin, Chang Cheng; Liu, Jing Xiong; Wu, De Hui; Lian, Dong Ying; Chen, Bin Bin

    2010-05-01

    Based on the acid rain and concurrent meteorological observational data during the past 10 years in Fujian Province, China, the dependence of distribution characteristics of acid rain on season, rain rate, weather pattern and dominant airflow in four regions of Fujian Province is analyzed. On the annual average, the acid rain frequency is the highest (above 40%) in the southern and mid-eastern regions, and the lowest (16.2%) in the western region. The acid rain occurs most frequently in spring and winter, and least frequent in summer. The acid rain frequency in general increases with the increase of precipitation. It also depend on the direction of dominant airflows at 850 hPa. In the mid-eastern region, more than 40% acid rains appear when the dominant wind directions are NW, W, SW, S and SE. In the southern region, high acid rain occurrence happens when the dominant wind directions are NW, W, SW and S. In the northern region, 41.8% acid rains occur when the southwesterly is pronounced. In the western region, the southwesterly is associated with a 17% acid rain rate. The examination of meteorological sounding conditions over Fuzhou, Xiamen and Shaowu cities shows that the acid rain frequency increases with increased inversion thickness. Based on the results above, a meteorological potential forecast model for acid rain is established and tested in 2007. The result is encouraging. The model provides an objective basis for the development of acid rain forecasting operation in the province.

  19. MODELING OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROUNDWATER FLOW AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şaban YURTÇU

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, modeling of the effect of rainfall, flow and evaporation as independent variables on the change of underground water levels as dependent variables were investigated by fuzzy logic (FL. In the study, total 396 values taken from six observation stations belong to Afyon inferior basin in Akarçay from 1977 to 1989 years were used. Using the monthly average values of stations, the change of underground water level was modeled by FL. It is observed that the results obtained from FL and the observations are compatible with each other. This shows FL modeling can be used to estimate groundwater levels from the appropriate meteorological value.

  20. Modeling of meteorology, chemistry and aerosol for the 2017 Utah Winter Fine Particle Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; McDonald, B.; Ahmadov, R.; Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Fibiger, D. L.; McDuffie, E. E.; Womack, C.; Brown, S. S.; Moravek, A.; Murphy, J. G.; Trainer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Utah Winter Fine Particle Study (UWFPS-17) field project took place during January and February of 2017 within the populated region of the Great Salt Lake, Utah. The study focused on understanding the meteorology and chemistry associated with high particulate matter (PM) levels often observed near Salt Lake City during stable wintertime conditions. Detailed composition and meteorological observations were taken from the NOAA Twin-Otter aircraft and several surface sites during the study period, and extremely high aerosol conditions were encountered for two cold-pool episodes occurring in the last 2 weeks of January. A clear understanding of the photochemical and aerosol processes leading to these high PM events is still lacking. Here we present high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, PM and chemistry over Utah from January 13 to February 1, 2017 using the WRF/Chem photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology is difficult due to the complex terrain and shallow inversion layers. We discuss the approach and limitations of the simulated meteorology, and evaluate low-level pollutant mixing using vertical profiles from missed airport approaches by the NOAA Twin-Otter performed routinely during each flight. Full photochemical simulations are calculated using NOx, ammonia and VOC emissions from the U.S. EPA NEI-2011 emissions inventory. Comparisons of the observed vertical column amounts of NOx, ammonia, aerosol nitrate and ammonium with model results shows the inventory estimates for ammonia emissions are low by a factor of four and NOx emissions are low by nearly a factor of two. The partitioning of both nitrate and NH3 between gas and particle phase depends strongly on the NH3 and NOx emissions to the model and calculated NOx to nitrate conversion rates. These rates are underestimated by gas-phase chemistry alone, even though surface snow albedo increases photolysis rates by nearly a factor of two. Several additional conversion

  1. Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristov, Y.; Oxley, G.; Žagar, M.

    2014-06-01

    The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-epsilon turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies.

  2. Mesoscale model simulation of low level equatorial winds over Borneo during the haze episode of September 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, Mastura

    2009-08-01

    The large-scale vegetation fires instigated by the local farmers during the dry period of the major El Niño event in 1997 can be considered as one of the worst environmental disasters that have occurred in southeast Asia in recent history. This study investigated the local meteorology characteristics of an equatorial environment within a domain that includes the northwestern part of Borneo from the 17 to 27 September 1997 during the height of the haze episode by utilizing a limited area three-dimensional meteorological and dispersion model, The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). Daily land and sea breeze conditions near the northwestern coast of Borneo in the state of Sarawak, Malaysia were predicted with moderate success by the index of agreement of less than one between the observed and simulated values for wind speed and a slight overprediction of 2.3 of the skill indicator that evaluates the standard deviation to the observed values. The innermost domain of study comprises an area of 24,193 km2, from approximately 109°E to 111°E, and from 1°N to 2.3°N, which includes a part of the South China Sea. Tracer analysis of air particles that were sourced in the state of Sarawak on the island of Borneo verified the existence of the landward and shoreward movements of the air during the simulation of the low level wind field. Polluted air particles were transported seawards during night-time, and landwards during daytime, highlighting the recirculation features of aged and newer air particles during the length of eleven days throughout the model simulation. Near calm conditions at low levels were simulated by the trajectory analysis from midnight to mid-day on the 22 of September 1997. Low-level turbulence within the planetary boundary layer in terms of the total kinetic energy was weak, congruent with the weak strength of low level winds that reduced the ability of the air to transport the pollutants. Statistical evaluation showed that parameters such as the systematic

  3. An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria

    2017-01-01

    of the output from 25 NWP models is presented for three sites in northern Europe characterized by simple terrain. The models are evaluated sing a number of statistical properties relevant to wind energy and verified with observations. On average the models have small wind speed biases offshore and aloft ( ... decreases the accuracy of the models, but we found no evidence that using a grid spacing smaller than 3 km is necessary for these simple sites. Applying the models to a simple wind energy offshore wind farm highlights the importance of capturing the correct distributions of wind speed and direction....

  4. Using SST and land cover data from EO Missions for improved mesoscale modelling of the coastal zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume

    the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), specifically developed for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region. To improve the physical description of the domain, the elevation, topography and land use, the CORINE land cover database and the SRTM elevation database are used as boundary conditions; with a spatial...... resolution of 100 m to 250 m, the CORINE land cover information represent a more accurate classification of land uses for the entire domain. SST, land cover, and elevation information from Earth Observation platforms are unique due to their extended spatial coverage and resolution, such that they can......, which do not resolve the large changes in local topographic features and atmospheric stability well [1]. The accuracy of modelled wind resource predictions can be improved by using local wind measurements to calibrate the models. RUNE investigated cost-effective measurement solutions for improving...

  5. Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

    2012-01-01

    In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

  6. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model: eight years of experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kaufmann

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The Swiss Model, a hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, has been used at MeteoSwiss for operational forecasting at the meso-beta scale (mesh-size 14 km from 1994 until 2001. The quality of the quantitative precipitation forecasts is evaluated for the eight years of operation. The seasonal precipitation over Switzerland and its dependence on altitude is examined for both model forecasts and observations using the Swiss rain gauge network sampling daily precipitation at over 400 stations for verification. The mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is verified against the automatic surface observation network on the basis of hourly recordings. In winter, there is no diurnal forcing of precipitation and the modelled precipitation agrees with the observed values. In summer, the convection in the model starts too early, overestimates the amount of precipitation and is too short-lived. Skill scores calculated for six-hourly precipitation sums show a constant level of performance over the model life cycle. Dry and wet seasons influence the model performance more than the model changes during its operational period. The comprehensive verification of the model precipitation is complemented by the discussion of a number of heavy rain events investigated during the RAPHAEL project. The sensitivities to a number of model components are illustrated, namely the driving boundary fields, the internal partitioning of parameterised and grid-scale precipitation, the advection scheme and the vertical resolution. While a small impact of the advection scheme had to be expected, the increasing overprediction of rain with increasing vertical resolution in the RAPHAEL case studies was larger than previously thought. The frequent update of the boundary conditions enhances the positioning of the rain in the model. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecast, model verification

  7. Coastal Foredune Evolution, Part 2: Modeling Approaches for Meso-Scale Morphologic Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    five parametric models are reviewed that address different aspects of dune erosion and accretion. The models range from time-independent scaling ...for Meso- Scale Morphologic Evolution by Margaret L. Palmsten1, Katherine L. Brodie2, and Nicholas J. Spore2 PURPOSE: This Coastal and Hydraulics...expand both observations and modeling approaches across meso-timescales, which are more directly related to the operational scale of coastal dune and

  8. Mesoscale modeling of the production and the three-dimensional transport of nitrogen oxides in thunderstorms; Mesoskalige Modellierung der Produktion und des dreidimensionalen Transports von Stickoxiden durch Gewitter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, T.

    2000-07-01

    Nitrogen oxides, NO{sub x} = NO + NO{sub 2}, play a fundamental role in tropospheric chemistry. Compared to other sources, the contribution of lightning induced NO{sub x} (LNO{sub x}) is known with considerable uncertainties and difficult to determine experimentally. The distribution of nitrogen oxides in an isolated thunderstorm is investigated using a modified version of the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with cloud-scale resolution. A Lagrangian particle model has been developed to represent the NO{sub x} released by individual flashes. The position of the flash, the flash type, the geometrical properties of the channel, and the amount of emitted NO{sub x} are introduced to the MM5 in a parameterized form. On July 21, 1998, during the European lightning nitrogen oxides project (EULINOX) field campaign, a supercell development was observed in the German alpine foreland. Anvil penetrations by the DLR Falcon aircraft contributed high resolution profiles of NO{sub x}. DLR radar observation covered the complete life cycle of the thunderstorm. The lightning activity was recorded with a lightning positioning and tracking system (LPATS) run by local power suppliers, while radiosonde and aircraft measurements supplied detailed information on the atmospheric stratification ahead of the thunderstorm. This meteorological information was used to initalize a cloud-scale MM5 simulation. The modeled thunderstorm reproduces many observed properties, e.g. cell splitting, propagation speed and direction, anvil and overshooting top height, and WER (weak echo region). The number of simulated cloud-to-ground flashes, as well as the temporal evolution of the lightning activity are comparable to the LPAT observations. The general transport properties of the model thunderstorm are investigated using an inert PBL-tracer, as well as trajectory analysis. The simulated lightning activity leads to the release of approximately 1 000 000 NO{sub x}-particles. The thunderstorm produces 28

  9. Meso-scale modeling of air pollution transport/chemistry/deposition and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Toshihiro

    2007-01-01

    Transport/chemistry/deposition model for atmospheric trace chemical species is now regarded as an important tool for an understanding of the effects of various human activities, such as fuel combustion and deforestation, on human health, eco-system, and climate and for planning of appropriate control of emission sources. Several 'comprehensive' models have been proposed such as RADM (Chang, et al., 1987), STEM-II (Carmichael, et al., 1986), and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model, e.g., EPA website, 2003); the 'comprehensive' models include not only gas/aerosol phase chemistry but also aqueous phase chemistry in cloud/rain water in addition to the processes of advection, diffusion, wet deposition (mass transfer between aqueous and gas/aerosol phases), and dry deposition. The target of the development of the 'comprehensive' model will be that the model can correctly reproduce mass balance of various chemical species in the atmosphere with keeping adequate accuracy for calculated concentration distributions of chemical species. For the purpose, one of the important problems is a reliable wet deposition modeling, and here, we introduce two types of methods of 'cloud-resolving' and 'non-cloud-resolving' modeling for the wet deposition of pollutants. (author)

  10. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) manages the national hydrological-meteorological service, the task of which is to maintain the network of stations, process data, as well issue warnings, reports and announcements. There are 5 divisions of IMWM scattered all over Poland. Each division includes numerous stations and the scientific-research departments. The data gathered, processed and analysed in IMWM are space-related, therefore spatial information systems are indispensable for its processing and visualisation. The project of GIS application in (IMWM) will be discussed in the presentation. With the divisions being so dispersed, numerous and heterogeneous in structure, GIS implementation is very complicated. On the one hand GIS should enable advanced spatial analyses to be carried out by the research, as well as data processing departments. On the other hand, it should provide passive access to a limited scope of information (e.g. for outside customers). Need analysis was carried out first. It resulted in proposals concerning the content of shared resources of geometrical data and connections with attribute data, as well as in proposals of GIS use in routine works. A model was prepared using various types of GIS software depending on the requirements of each division. It is based on standard solutions involving professional GIS, desktop GIS and simple tools for data presentation. In some departments the specialised software had to be taken into account (e.g. satellite data processing). It is necessary to develop and implement dedicated research methods for some individual tasks. The analysis of mapping requirements showed that there is a need to prepare thematic maps at least at two levels of detail. Presently, the works are concentrated on assembling thematic layers for a general map (at 1: 500000 scale) sufficient for many applications, including data visualisation in the Internet and IMWM publications, as well as the tool for measurements and

  11. Mesoscale Climate Evaluation Using Grid Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos Velho, H. F.; Freitas, S. R.; Souto, R. P.; Charao, A. S.; Ferraz, S.; Roberti, D. R.; Streck, N.; Navaux, P. O.; Maillard, N.; Collischonn, W.; Diniz, G.; Radin, B.

    2012-04-01

    The CLIMARS project is focused to establish an operational environment for seasonal climate prediction for the Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The dynamical downscaling will be performed with the use of several software platforms and hardware infrastructure to carry out the investigation on mesoscale of the global change impact. The grid computing takes advantage of geographically spread out computer systems, connected by the internet, for enhancing the power of computation. The ensemble climate prediction is an appropriated application for processing on grid computing, because the integration of each ensemble member does not have a dependency on information from another ensemble members. The grid processing is employed to compute the 20-year climatology and the long range simulations under ensemble methodology. BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model) is a mesoscale model developed from a version of the RAMS (from the Colorado State University - CSU, USA). BRAMS model is the tool for carrying out the dynamical downscaling from the IPCC scenarios. Long range BRAMS simulations will provide data for some climate (data) analysis, and supply data for numerical integration of different models: (a) Regime of the extreme events for temperature and precipitation fields: statistical analysis will be applied on the BRAMS data, (b) CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled Chemistry Aerosol Tracer Transport - BRAMS) is an environmental prediction system that will be used to evaluate if the new standards of temperature, rain regime, and wind field have a significant impact on the pollutant dispersion in the analyzed regions, (c) MGB-IPH (Portuguese acronym for the Large Basin Model (MGB), developed by the Hydraulic Research Institute, (IPH) from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil) will be employed to simulate the alteration of the river flux under new climate patterns. Important meteorological input variables for the MGB-IPH are the precipitation (most relevant

  12. Influence of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions: estimations using the mesoscale model COSMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, A. V.; Rozinkina, I. A.; Kuzmina, E. V.; Nikitin, M. A.; Rivin, G. S.

    2018-01-01

    This modeling study intends to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change on regional weather conditions using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO. The central part of the East European Plain was selected as the ‘model region’ for the study. The results of numerical experiments conducted for the warm period of 2010 for the modeling domain covering almost the whole East European Plain showed that deforestation and afforestation processes within the selected model region of the area about 105 km2 can lead to significant changes in regional weather conditions. The deforestation processes have resulted in an increase of the air temperature and a reduction in the amount of precipitation. The afforestation processes can produce the opposite effects, as manifested in decreased air temperature and increased precipitation. Whereas a change of the air temperature is observed mainly inside of the model region, the changes of the precipitation are evident within the entire East European Plain, even in regions situated far away from the external boundaries of the model region.

  13. Modeling Hot-Spot Contributions in Shocked High Explosives at the Mesoscale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrier, Danielle [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-12

    When looking at performance of high explosives, the defects within the explosive become very important. Plastic bonded explosives, or PBXs, contain voids of air and bonder between the particles of explosive material that aid in the ignition of the explosive. These voids collapse in high pressure shock conditions, which leads to the formation of hot spots. Hot spots are localized high temperature and high pressure regions that cause significant changes in the way the explosive material detonates. Previously hot spots have been overlooked with modeling, but now scientists are realizing their importance and new modeling systems that can accurately model hot spots are underway.

  14. Application of two phosphorus models with different complexities in a mesoscale river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The water balance and phosphorus inputs of surface waters of the Weiße Elster catchment, Germany, have been quantified using the models GROWA/MEPhos and SWAT. A comparison of the model results shows small differences in the mean long-term total runoff for the entire study area. All relevant pathways of phosphorus transport were considered in MEPhos with phosphorus inputs resulting to about 65% from point sources. SWAT focuses on agricultural areas and estimates a phosphorus input of about 60% through erosion. The mean annual phosphorus input from erosion calculated with SWAT is six times higher than the estimation with MEPhos due to the differing model concepts. This shows the uncertainty contributed by the modelling description of phosphorus pathways.

  15. Mitigating Excessive Drying From the Use of Observations in Mesoscale Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    parameterize the atmospheric boundary layer. This parameterization predicts turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and is a Mellor- Yamada Level 2.5 turbulence...the 9-km horizontal grid spacing domain only. For radiation , the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) (Mlawer et al., 1997) is used for longwave...and the Dudhia scheme (Dudhia, 1989) for 3 shortwave . The Noah land surface model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001) is used to represent land surface

  16. Plankton Dynamics and Mesoscale Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-29

    We model meso- and large-scale interactions between fluid dynamics and biology by resorting to reaction-advection-diffusion equations. The reaction...terms represent biologi - cal interactions. The advection terms here represent horizontal advection, mainly due to mesoscale circulations and flows...affected by the variations of topography which take place at steep continental shelves and near seamounts - areas where large abundances of plankton

  17. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  18. Network-based Modeling of Mesoscale Catchments - The Hydrology Perspective of Glowa-danube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, R.; Escher-Vetter, H.; Hennicker, R.; Mauser, W.; Niemeyer, S.; Reichstein, M.; Tenhunen, J.

    Within the GLOWA initiative of the German Ministry for Research and Educa- tion (BMBF), the project GLOWA-Danube is funded to establish a transdisciplinary network-based decision support tool for water related issues in the Upper Danube wa- tershed. It aims to develop and validate integration techniques, integrated models and integrated monitoring procedures and to implement them in the network-based De- cision Support System DANUBIA. An accurate description of processes involved in energy, water and matter fluxes and turnovers requires an intense collaboration and exchange of water related expertise of different scientific disciplines. DANUBIA is conceived as a distributed expert network and is developed on the basis of re-useable, refineable, and documented sub-models. In order to synthesize a common understand- ing between the project partners, a standardized notation of parameters and functions and a platform-independent structure of computational methods and interfaces has been established using the Unified Modeling Language UML. DANUBIA is object- oriented, spatially distributed and raster-based at its core. It applies the concept of "proxels" (Process Pixel) as its basic object, which has different dimensions depend- ing on the viewing scale and connects to its environment through fluxes. The presented study excerpts the hydrological view point of GLOWA-Danube, its approach of model coupling and network based communication (using the Remote Method Invocation RMI), the object-oriented technology to simulate physical processes and interactions at the land surface and the methodology to treat the issue of spatial and temporal scal- ing in large, heterogeneous catchments. The mechanisms applied to communicate data and model parameters across the typical discipline borders will be demonstrated from the perspective of a land-surface object, which comprises the capabilities of interde- pendent expert models for snowmelt, soil water movement, runoff formation, plant

  19. MESOI Version 2.0: an interactive mesoscale Lagrangian puff dispersion model with deposition and decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Glantz, C.S.

    1983-11-01

    MESOI Version 2.0 is an interactive Lagrangian puff model for estimating the transport, diffusion, deposition and decay of effluents released to the atmosphere. The model is capable of treating simultaneous releases from as many as four release points, which may be elevated or at ground-level. The puffs are advected by a horizontal wind field that is defined in three dimensions. The wind field may be adjusted for expected topographic effects. The concentration distribution within the puffs is initially assumed to be Gaussian in the horizontal and vertical. However, the vertical concentration distribution is modified by assuming reflection at the ground and the top of the atmospheric mixing layer. Material is deposited on the surface using a source depletion, dry deposition model and a washout coefficient model. The model also treats the decay of a primary effluent species and the ingrowth and decay of a single daughter species using a first order decay process. This report is divided into two parts. The first part discusses the theoretical and mathematical bases upon which MESOI Version 2.0 is based. The second part contains the MESOI computer code. The programs were written in the ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 and were developed on a VAX 11/780 computer. 43 references, 14 figures, 13 tables

  20. Comparison and analysis of aircraft measurements and mesoscale atmospheric chemistry model simulations of tropospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleim, Jonathan E.; Ching, Jason K. S.

    1994-01-01

    The Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) has been applied to several of the field experiments which were part of the Acid Models Operational and Diagnostic Evaluation Study (Acid MODES). The experiment which was of particular interest with regards to ozone photochemistry involved horizontal zig-zag flight patterns (ZIPPER) over an area from the eastern Ohio River valley to the Adirondacks of New York. Model simulations by both the standard resolution RADM (delta x = 80 km) and the nested grid RADM (delta x = 26.7 km) compare well to measurements in the low emission regions in central Pennsylvania and upstate New York, but underestimate in the high emission upper Ohio River valley. The nested simulation does considerably better, however, than the coarse grid simulation in terms of horizontal pattern and concentration magnitudes. Analysis of NO(x) and HO(x) concentrations and photochemical products rates of ozone show that the model's response to large point source emissions is very unsystematic both spatially and temporally. This is due to the models instability to realistically simulate the small scale (subgrid) gradients in precursor concentrations in and around large point source plumes.

  1. Development of a prototype mesoscale computer model incorporating treatment of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apsimon, H.; Kitson, K.; Fawcett, M.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1984-01-01

    Models are available for simulating dispersal of accidental releases, using mass-consistent wind-fields and accounting for site-specific topography. These techniques were examined critically to see if they might be improved, and to assess their limitations. An improved model, windfield adjusted for topography (WAFT), was developed (with advantages over MATHEW used in the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability - ARAC system). To simulate dispersion in the windfields produced by WAFT and calculate time integrated air concentrations and dry and wet deposition the TOMCATS model was developed. It treats the release as an assembly of pseudo-particles using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate turbulent displacements. It allows for larger eddy effects in the horizontal turbulence spectrum. Wet deposition is calculated using inhomogeneous rainfields evolving in time and space. The models were assessed, applying them to hypothetical releases in complex terrain, using typical data applicable in accident conditions, and undertaking sensitivity studies. One finds considerable uncertainty in results produced by these models. Although useful for post-facto analysis, such limitations cast doubt on their advantages, relative to simpler techniques, during an actual emergency

  2. MESOI Version 2. 0: an interactive mesoscale Lagrangian puff dispersion model with deposition and decay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Glantz, C.S.

    1983-11-01

    MESOI Version 2.0 is an interactive Lagrangian puff model for estimating the transport, diffusion, deposition and decay of effluents released to the atmosphere. The model is capable of treating simultaneous releases from as many as four release points, which may be elevated or at ground-level. The puffs are advected by a horizontal wind field that is defined in three dimensions. The wind field may be adjusted for expected topographic effects. The concentration distribution within the puffs is initially assumed to be Gaussian in the horizontal and vertical. However, the vertical concentration distribution is modified by assuming reflection at the ground and the top of the atmospheric mixing layer. Material is deposited on the surface using a source depletion, dry deposition model and a washout coefficient model. The model also treats the decay of a primary effluent species and the ingrowth and decay of a single daughter species using a first order decay process. This report is divided into two parts. The first part discusses the theoretical and mathematical bases upon which MESOI Version 2.0 is based. The second part contains the MESOI computer code. The programs were written in the ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 and were developed on a VAX 11/780 computer. 43 references, 14 figures, 13 tables.

  3. The Challenge of Forecasting the Onset and Development of Radiation Fog Using Mesoscale Atmospheric Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, G.J.; Ronda, R.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    The numerical weather prediction of radiation fog is challenging, as many models typically show large biases for the timing of the onset and dispersal of the fog, as well as for its depth and liquid water content. To understand the role of physical processes, i.e. turbulence, radiation, land-surface

  4. Validation of a mesoscale hydrological model in a small-scale forested catchment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2016), s. 27-41 ISSN 1998-9563 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : hydrological modelling * small catchment * soil moisture * subsurface lateral flow * SWIM Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.754, year: 2016

  5. Mesoscale Modeling of Nonlinear Elasticity and Fracture in Ceramic Polycrystals Under Dynamic Shear and Compression

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 24 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON J. D. Clayton a. REPORT...elsewhere for SiC (Lee et al., 2005), follows from a cap plasticity model formulated in the context of geomechanics (Sandler and Rubin, 1979):rections, and

  6. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropicalwesterly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bayof Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Althoughglobal models ...

  7. Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations of Open Cellular Convection Over the Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vincent, Claire Louise; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Kelly, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The atmospheric conditions during an observed case of open cellular convection over the North Sea were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model. Wind, temperature and water vapour mixing ratio profiles from the WRF simulation were used to initialize an idealized ...

  8. Simulations of the soil moisture dynamics in the small scale forested catchment using mesoscale hydrological model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 14, - (2012), s. 4791 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012. 22.04.2012-27.04.2012, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : soil moisture * hydrological modelling * small catchment Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  9. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    13

    2015-10-02

    Oct 2, 2015 ... major spot where the land-atmosphere is highly coupled and is difficult to model these interactions ..... synoptic systems, in this subsection PV analyses is discussed to analyse the interaction over the heavy ..... Done, J., Davis, C., and Weisman, M. L 2004 The next Generation of NWP: Explicit Forecasts of.

  10. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for simulating the Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, P. V.; Pattnaik, S.; Rai, D.; Osuri, K. K.; Mohanty, U. C.; Tripathy, S.

    2016-04-01

    In 2013, Indian summer monsoon witnessed a very heavy rainfall event (>30 cm/day) over Uttarakhand in north India, claiming more than 5000 lives and property damage worth approximately 40 billion USD. This event was associated with the interaction of two synoptic systems, i.e., intensified subtropical westerly trough over north India and north-westward moving monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. The event had occurred over highly variable terrain and land surface characteristics. Although global models predicted the large scale event, they failed to predict realistic location, timing, amount, intensity and distribution of rainfall over the region. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in simulating this severe event using a high resolution mesoscale model. The land conditions such as multi-layer soil moisture and soil temperature fields were generated from High Resolution Land Data Assimilation (HRLDAS) modelling system. Two experiments were conducted namely, (1) CNTL (Control, without land data assimilation) and (2) LDAS, with land data assimilation (i.e., with HRLDAS-based soil moisture and temperature fields) using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Initial soil moisture correlation and root mean square error for LDAS is 0.73 and 0.05, whereas for CNTL it is 0.63 and 0.053 respectively, with a stronger heat low in LDAS. The differences in wind and moisture transport in LDAS favoured increased moisture transport from Arabian Sea through a convectively unstable region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The improvement in rainfall is significantly correlated to the persistent generation of potential vorticity (PV) in LDAS. Further, PV tendency analysis confirmed that the increased generation of PV is due to the enhanced horizontal PV advection component rather than the diabatic heating terms due to modified flow fields. These results suggest that, two

  11. Spectral structure of mesoscale winds over the water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Vincent, Claire Louise; Larsen, Søren Ejling

    2013-01-01

    Standard meteorological measurements from a number ofmasts around two Danish offshore wind farms have been used to study the spectral structure of the mesoscale winds, including the power spectrum, the co- and quadrature spectrum and the coherence. When average conditions are considered, the powe...

  12. An integrated system for wind energy forecast using meteorological models and statistical post-processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, P.; Rodrigues, A.; Lopes, J.; Palma, J.; Tome, R.; Sousa, J.; Bessa, R.; Matos, J.

    2009-12-01

    With 3GW of installed wind turbines, corresponding to 23% of the total electric grid, and a 5-year plan that will grow that value above 5GW (near 40% of the grid), Portugal has been a recent success case for renewable energy development. Clearly such large share of wind energy in the national electric system implies a strong requirement for accurate wind forecasts, that can be used to forecast this highly variable energy source and allow for timely decision making in the energy markets, namely for on and off switching of alternative conventional sources. In the past 3 years, a system for 72h energy forecast in mainland Portugal was setup, using 6km resolution meteorological forecasts, forced by global GFS forecasts by NCEP. In the development phase, different boundary conditions (from NCEP and ECMWF) were tested, as well as different limited area models (namely MM5, Aladin, MesoNH and WRF) at resolutions from 12 to 2km, which were evaluated by comparison with wind observations at heights relevant for wind turbines (up to 80m) in different locations and for different synoptic conditions. The developed system, which works with a real time connection with wind farms, also includes a post-processing code that merges recent wind observations with the meteorological forecast, and converts the forecasted wind fields into forecasted energy, by incorporating empirical transfer functions of the wind farm. Wind conditions in Portugal are highly influenced by topography, as most wind farms are located in complex terrain, often in mountainous terrain, where stratification plays a significant role. Coastal effects are also highly relevant, especially during the Summer, where a strong diurnal cycle of the sea-breeze is superimposed on an equally strong boundary layer development, both with a significant impact on low level winds. These two ingredients tend to complicate wind forecasts, requiring fully developed meteorological models. In general, results from 2 full years of

  13. Pembangunan Aplikasi Pengolahan Data Unsur Cuaca Pada Stasiun Meteorologi Kota Tegal Berbasis Model Waterfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khambali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Untuk mendapatkan suatu pengolahan data yang cepat dan akurat serta dikelola dengan baik tentunya harus mempunyai sebuah sistem pengelolaan yang baik. Aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca disusulkan pada penelitian ini. Dengan menggunakan model waterfall menjadikan tahapan dalam pengembangan sistem yang dibuat menjadi terstruktur dengan baik tahapannya. Dengan dibangunnya aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca, maka kendala yang dihadapi oleh stasiun meteorologi Tegal khususnya dibagian pengamatan yaitu dalam penghitungan unsur cuaca dapat ditanggulangi sehingga dapat mempermudah dalam memperoleh laporan tentang data unsur cuaca.

  14. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  15. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  16. Thermomechanical Properties of Polypropylene-Based Lightweight Composites Modeled on the Mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dostálová, Darina; Kafka, Vratislav; Vokoun, David; Heller, Luděk; Matějka, Libor; Kadeřávek, Lukáš; Pěnčík, Jan

    2017-11-01

    A waste-based particle polymer composite (WPPCs) made of foam glass and polypropylene was developed as a low-cost construction material. Thermomechanical properties of the composite, including creep properties of WPPC and polypropylene binder, were examined. By adding a relatively small amount of polypropylene to foam glass (about 2:8 in volume parts), the maximum bearing capacity at room temperature of the composite increased from 1.9 (pure foam glass) to 15 MPa. A significant creep strain accumulated during compressive loading of WPPC (5 MPa) in the first 2000 s at elevated temperatures (40, 60 °C). In the study, Kafka's mesomechanical model was used to simulate creep strain changes in time for various temperatures. The applicability of Kafka's mesomechanical model for simulating creep properties of the studied composite material was demonstrated.

  17. Thermomechanical properties of polypropylene-based lightweight composites modeled on the mesoscale

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dostálová, Darina; Kafka, Vratislav; Vokoun, David; Heller, Luděk; Matějka, L.; Kadeřávek, Lukáš; Pěnčík, J.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 26, Oct (2017), s. 5166-5172 ISSN 1059-9495 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36566G Institutional support: RVO:68378271 ; RVO:68378297 Keywords : building material * composite * creep tests * mesomechanical model * thermal insulation Subject RIV: JI - Composite Materials OBOR OECD: Composites (including laminates, reinforced plastics, cermets, combined natural and synthetic fibre fabrics Impact factor: 1.331, year: 2016

  18. A hybrid, coupled approach for modeling charged fluids from the nano to the mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, James; Frischknecht, Amalie L.; Perego, Mauro; Bochev, Pavel

    2017-11-01

    We develop and demonstrate a new, hybrid simulation approach for charged fluids, which combines the accuracy of the nonlocal, classical density functional theory (cDFT) with the efficiency of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) equations. The approach is motivated by the fact that the more accurate description of the physics in the cDFT model is required only near the charged surfaces, while away from these regions the PNP equations provide an acceptable representation of the ionic system. We formulate the hybrid approach in two stages. The first stage defines a coupled hybrid model in which the PNP and cDFT equations act independently on two overlapping domains, subject to suitable interface coupling conditions. At the second stage we apply the principles of the alternating Schwarz method to the hybrid model by using the interface conditions to define the appropriate boundary conditions and volume constraints exchanged between the PNP and the cDFT subdomains. Numerical examples with two representative examples of ionic systems demonstrate the numerical properties of the method and its potential to reduce the computational cost of a full cDFT calculation, while retaining the accuracy of the latter near the charged surfaces.

  19. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  20. Localized Artificial Viscosity Stabilization of Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7...Four resolutions, namely, 400m , 200m, 100m and 50m, are used in the simulations. In Ref. [2], a constant dynamic viscosity is used to ensure a grid...polynomial orders. The effects of on flow field features are studied with P! reconstruction on both 8×2 (i.e., 400m resolution) and 64×16 meshes (i.e

  1. Towards Exascale Computing with NUMA: an Element-based Galerkin Nonhydrostatic Global and Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraldo, F.; Mueller, A.; Kopera, M. A.; Abdi, D. S.; Wilcox, L.

    2015-12-01

    In this talk, we shall describe the NUMA atmospheric model, focusing in particular on its unified continuous/discontinuous (CG and DG) Galerkin numerical methods that are used to represent the spatial derivatives. We shall describe how these two methods are formulated in a unified approach and the advantages that this brings. We will also report on the progress in extending NUMA to using adaptive mesh refinement. Lastly, we will report on the scalability and performance of NUMA on the leadership computing facilities (LCF) of the Department of Energy where we have scaled NUMA to over 3 million MPI threads achieving a 90% efficiency.

  2. Mesoscale Modeling of Kinetic Phase Behaviors in Mg-B-H (Subcontract Report)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Thornton, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wood, B. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-10-13

    Storage of hydrogen on board vehicles is one of the critical enabling technologies for creating hydrogenfueled transportation systems that can reduce oil dependency and mitigate the long-term effects of fossil fuels on climate change. Stakeholders in developing hydrogen infrastructure are currently focused on highpressure storage at 350 bar and 700 bar, in part because no viable solid-phase storage material has emerged. Nevertheless, solid-state materials, including high-density hydrides, remain of interest because of their unique potential to meet all DOE targets and deliver hydrogen at lower pressures and higher on-board densities. A successful solution would significantly reduce costs and ensure the economic viability of a U.S. hydrogen infrastructure. The Mg(BH4)2-MgB2 system represents a highly promising solution because of its reasonable reaction enthalpy, high intrinsic capacity, and demonstrated reversibility, yet suffers from poor reaction kinetics. This subcontract aims to deliver a phase-field model for the kinetics of the evolution of the relevant phases within the Mg-B-H system during hydrogenation and dehydrogenation. This model will be used within a broader theory, synthesis, and characterization framework to study the properties of geometry-selected nanoparticles of pristine and doped MgB2/Mg(BH4)2 with two aims: (1) understand the intrinsic limitations in (de)hydrogenation; (2) devise strategies for improving thermodynamics and kinetics through nanostructuring.

  3. Direct imaging and mesoscale modelling of phase transitions in a nanostructured fluid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoll, A.; Lyakhova, K. S.; Horvat, A.; Krausch, G.; Sevink, G. J. A.; Zvelindovsky, A. V.; Magerle, R.

    2004-12-01

    The kinetics of phase transitions is essential for understanding pattern formation in structured fluids. These fluids play a key role in the morphogenesis of biological cells, and they are very common in pharmaceutical products and plastic materials. Until now, it has not been possible to follow phase transitions in structured fluids experimentally in real time and with high spatial resolution. Previous work has relied on static images and indirect experimental evidence from spatially averaging scattering experiments. Simulating the processes with computer models is a further challenge because of the multiple time and length scales involved. Our movies based on in situ scanning force microscopy show the time sequence of the elementary steps of a phase transition in a fluid film of block copolymer from the cylinder to the perforated lamella phase. The movies validate a versatile simulation model that gives physical insight into the nature of the process. Our approach provides a means of improving the study and understanding of pattern formation processes in nanostructured fluids. We expect a significant impact on nanotechnology where block copolymers serve as self-organized templates for the synthesis of inorganic nanostructured materials.

  4. Mathematical modeling of a four-stroke resonant engine for micro and mesoscale applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

    2014-12-01

    In order to mitigate frictional and leakage losses in small scale engines, a compliant engine design is proposed in which the piston in cylinder arrangement is replaced by a flexible cavity. A physics-based nonlinear lumped-parameter model is derived to predict the performance of a prototype engine. The model showed that the engine performance depends on input parameters, such as heat input, heat loss, and load on the engine. A sample simulation for a reference engine with octane fuel/air ratio of 0.043 resulted in an indicated thermal efficiency of 41.2%. For a fixed fuel/air ratio, higher output power is obtained for smaller loads and vice-versa. The heat loss from the engine and the work done on the engine during the intake stroke are found to decrease the indicated thermal efficiency. The ratio of friction work to indicated work in the prototype engine is about 8%, which is smaller in comparison to the traditional reciprocating engines.

  5. Understanding Mars meteorology using a "new generation" Mars Global Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Millour, E.; Colaitis, A.; Spiga, A.; Montabone, L.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lefèvre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Määttänen, A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lopez-Valverde, M.-A.

    2011-10-01

    For more than 20 years, several teams around the world have developed GCMs (Mars General Circulation Model or Mars Global Climate) to simulate the environment on Mars. The GCM developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in collaboration with several teams in Europe (LATMOS, France, University of Oxford, The Open University, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia), and with the support of ESA and CNES. is currently used for many kind of applications. It has become a "Mars System Model" which, for instance, includes the water cycle, the dust cycle, several photochemistry cycles, the release and transport of Radon, water isotopes cycles, a therrmosphere and a Ionosphere. It can also be used to explore Mars past climates. Moreover the outputs of the GCM are available to the community and to engineers through the Mars Climate Database, a tool available on a DVD-Rom and used by more than 150 teams around the world. For all these applications, it is more important than ever that the model accurately simulates the "fundamentals" of the Martian meteorology: pressure, temperature, winds. However, several recent studies have revealed that to simulate the details of Mars meteorology one must take into account several processes previously neglected like the radiative effect of water ice clouds, complex variations in the vertical distribution of dust including the formation of detached layers of dust, complex coupling in the CO2 cycle which control the pressure cycle and the temperatures at high latitude, etc.

  6. Modeling analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over China: pollution characteristics, and meteorological and dust impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiao; Wang, Shuxiao; Chang, Xing; Cai, Siyi; Xing, Jia; Hao, Jiming

    2016-10-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) are the predominant components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and have significant impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) was modified to incorporate SO2 heterogeneous reactions on the surface of dust particles. The revised model was then used to simulate the spatiotemporal characteristics of SIA over China and analyze the impacts of meteorological factors and dust on SIA formation. Including the effects of dust improved model performance for the simulation of SIA concentrations, particularly for sulfate. The simulated annual SIA concentration in China was approximately 10.1 μg/m3 on domain average, with strong seasonal variation: highest in winter and lowest in summer. High SIA concentrations were concentrated in developed regions with high precursor emissions, such as the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and Pearl River Delta. Strong correlations between meteorological factors and SIA pollution levels suggested that heterogeneous reactions under high humidity played an important role on SIA formation, particularly during severe haze pollution periods. Acting as surfaces for heterogeneous reactions, dust particles significantly affected sulfate formation, suggesting the importance of reducing dust emissions for controlling SIA and PM2.5 pollution.

  7. Artificial Neural Network Model in Prediction of Meteorological Parameters during Premonsoon Thunderstorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Litta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting thunderstorm is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent nonlinearity of their dynamics and physics. Accurate forecasting of severe thunderstorms is critical for a large range of users in the community. In this paper, experiments are conducted with artificial neural network model to predict severe thunderstorms that occurred over Kolkata during May 3, 11, and 15, 2009, using thunderstorm affected meteorological parameters. The capabilities of six learning algorithms, namely, Step, Momentum, Conjugate Gradient, Quick Propagation, Levenberg-Marquardt, and Delta-Bar-Delta, in predicting thunderstorms and the usefulness for the advanced prediction were studied and their performances were evaluated by a number of statistical measures. The results indicate that Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm well predicted thunderstorm affected surface parameters and 1, 3, and 24 h advanced prediction models are able to predict hourly temperature and relative humidity adequately with sudden fall and rise during thunderstorm hour. This demonstrates its distinct capability and advantages in identifying meteorological time series comprising nonlinear characteristics. The developed model can be useful in decision making for meteorologists and others who work with real-time thunderstorm forecast.

  8. Seamless Meteorology-Composition Models: Challenges, Gaps, Needs and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Bernhard; Baklanov, Alexander; Bouchet, Véronique; Marécal, Virginie; Benedetti, Angela; Heinke Schlünzen, K.

    2016-04-01

    Seamless meteorology - composition - chemistry models (SMCM) have several advantages: They allow the consideration of two - way interactions (i.e. feedbacks), ensure synergies in research, development, maintenance and application. "Seamless" is introduced here in relation to two aspects. Firstly, at the process - scale where it refers to the coupling within a model of meteorology and composition processes to represent for example the two - way interactions between composition and radiative processes or microphysics, or the consistent treatment of water vapor. Secondly, in terms time and space where it refers to the absence of discontinuities in model behavior when used at multiple temporal or spatial resolutions to have for example consistent treatment of black carbon for air quality and climate applications. SMCMs describe the relevant processes to investigate long - standing scientific questions on the interactions between atmospheric constituents and atmospheric processes and support the creation of new environmental prediction services. This paper presents a review of the current research status of SMCMs and recommendations to address limitations in weather, climate and atmospheric composition fields whose interests, applications and challenges are now overlapping. The contribution highlights the challenges towards seamlessness and presents priority areas for research to further this path. It will present examples where SMCMs are already in or close to operational use.

  9. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  10. Sensitivity of an Integrated Mesoscale Atmosphere and Agriculture Land Modeling System (WRF/CMAQ-EPIC) to MODIS Vegetation and Lightning Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteo...

  11. Meso-scale Modeling of Block Copolymers Self-Assembly in Casting Solutions for Membrane Manufacture

    KAUST Repository

    Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    Isoporous membranes manufactured from diblock copolymer are successfully produced at laboratory scale under controlled conditions. Because of the complex phenomena involved, membrane preparation requires trial and error methodologies to find the optimal conditions, leading to a considerable demand of resources. Experimental insights demonstrate that the self-assembly of the block copolymers in solution has an effect on the final membrane structure. Nevertheless, the complete understanding of these multi-scale phenomena is elusive. Herein we use the coarse-grained method Dissipative Particle Dynamics to study the self-assembly of block copolymers that are used for the preparation of the membranes. To simulate representative time and length scales, we introduce a framework for model reduction of polymer chain representations for dissipative particle dynamics, which preserves the properties governing the phase equilibria. We reduce the number of degrees of freedom by accounting for the correlation between beads in fine-grained models via power laws and the consistent scaling of the simulation parameters. The coarse-graining models are consistent with the experimental evidence, showing a morphological transition of the aggregates as the polymer concentration and solvent affinity change. We show that hexagonal packing of the micelles can occur in solution within different windows of polymer concentration depending on the solvent affinity. However, the shape and size dispersion of the micelles determine the characteristic arrangement. We describe the order of crew-cut micelles using a rigid-sphere approximation and propose different phase parameters that characterize the emergence of monodisperse-spherical micelles in solution. Additionally, we investigate the effect of blending asymmetric diblock copolymers (AB/AC) over the properties of the membranes. We observe that the co-assembly mechanism localizes the AC molecules at the interface of A and B domains, and induces

  12. Assessing the Relationship Between Meteorological Parameters, Air Pollution And Cardiovascular Mortality of Mashhad City Based on Time Series Model

    OpenAIRE

    Morteza Hatami; Mitra Mohammadi Mohammadi; Reza Esmaeli; Mandana Mohammadi

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological studies conducted in the past two decades indicate that air pollution causes increase in cardiovascular, breathing and chronic bronchitis disorders and even causes cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between meteorological parameters, air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in the city of Mashhad in 2014 by a time series model. Data on mortality from cardiovascular disease, meteorological parameters and air pollutio...

  13. Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Gregory E.; Zack, John W.; Manobianco, John

    1994-01-01

    NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

  14. Motivational Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Lee

    1993-01-01

    Describes an introductory meteorology course for nonacademic high school students. The course is made hands-on by the use of an educational software program offered by Accu-Weather. The program contains a meteorology database and instructional modules. (PR)

  15. Mesoscale hydrodynamic modeling of a colloid in shear-thinning viscoelastic fluids under shear flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Shichen; Jiang, Run; Winkler, Roland G; Gompper, Gerhard

    2011-10-07

    In order to study the dynamics of colloidal suspensions with viscoelastic solvents, a simple mesoscopic model of the solvent is required. We propose to extend the multiparticle collision dynamics (MPC) technique--a particle-based simulation method, which has been successfully applied to study the hydrodynamic behavior of many complex fluids with Newtonian solvent--to shear-thinning viscoelastic solvents. Here, the normal MPC particles are replaced by dumbbells with finite-extensible nonlinear elastic (FENE) springs. We have studied the properties of FENE-dumbbell fluids under simple shear flow with shear rate ̇γ. The stress tensor is calculated, and the viscosity η and the first normal-stress coefficient Ψ(1) are obtained. Shear-thinning behavior is found for reduced shear rates Γ= ̇γτ>1, where τ is a characteristic dumbbell relaxation time. Here, both η and Ψ(1) display power-law behavior in the shear-thinning regime. Thus, the FENE-dumbbell fluid with MPC collisions provides a good description of viscoelastic fluids. As a first application, we study the flow behavior of a colloid in a shear-thinning viscoelastic fluid in two dimensions. A slowing down of the colloid rotation in a viscoelastic fluid compared to a Newtonian fluid is obtained, in agreement with recent numerical calculations and experimental results. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  16. Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-12-01

    Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

  17. Wildfire particulate matter in Europe during summer 2003: meso-scale modeling of smoke emissions, transport and radiative effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hodzic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates effects of wildfire emissions on air quality in Europe during an intense fire season that occurred in summer 2003. A meso-scale chemistry transport model CHIMERE is used, together with ground based and satellite aerosol optical measurements, to assess the dispersion of fire emissions and to quantify the associated radiative effects. The model has been improved to take into account a MODIS-derived daily smoke emission inventory as well as the injection altitude of smoke particles. The simulated aerosol optical properties are put into a radiative transfer model to estimate (off-line the effects of smoke particles on photolysis rates and atmospheric radiative forcing. We have found that the simulated wildfires generated comparable amounts of primary aerosol pollutants (130 kTons of PM2.5, fine particles to anthropogenic sources during August 2003, and caused significant changes in aerosol optical properties not only close to the fire source regions, but also over a large part of Europe as a result of the long-range transport of the smoke. Including these emissions into the model significantly improved its performance in simulating observed aerosol concentrations and optical properties. Quantitative comparison with MODIS and POLDER data during the major fire event (3–8 August 2003 showed the ability of the model to reproduce high aerosol optical thickness (AOT over Northern Europe caused by the advection of the smoke plume from the Portugal source region. Although there was a fairly good spatial agreement with satellite data (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.9, the temporal variability of AOT data at specific AERONET locations was not well captured by the model. Statistical analyses of model-simulated AOT data at AERONET ground stations showed a significant decrease in the model biases suggesting that wildfire emissions are responsible for a 30% enhancement in mean AOT values during the heat

  18. Wildfire particulate matter in Europe during summer 2003: meso-scale modeling of smoke emissions, transport and radiative effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodzic, A.; Madronich, S.; Bohn, B.; Massie, S.; Menut, L.; Wiedinmyer, C.

    2007-08-01

    The present study investigates effects of wildfire emissions on air quality in Europe during an intense fire season that occurred in summer 2003. A meso-scale chemistry transport model CHIMERE is used, together with ground based and satellite aerosol optical measurements, to assess the dispersion of fire emissions and to quantify the associated radiative effects. The model has been improved to take into account a MODIS-derived daily smoke emission inventory as well as the injection altitude of smoke particles. The simulated aerosol optical properties are put into a radiative transfer model to estimate (off-line) the effects of smoke particles on photolysis rates and atmospheric radiative forcing. We have found that the simulated wildfires generated comparable amounts of primary aerosol pollutants (130 kTons of PM2.5, fine particles) to anthropogenic sources during August 2003, and caused significant changes in aerosol optical properties not only close to the fire source regions, but also over a large part of Europe as a result of the long-range transport of the smoke. Including these emissions into the model significantly improved its performance in simulating observed aerosol concentrations and optical properties. Quantitative comparison with MODIS and POLDER data during the major fire event (3-8 August 2003) showed the ability of the model to reproduce high aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over Northern Europe caused by the advection of the smoke plume from the Portugal source region. Although there was a fairly good spatial agreement with satellite data (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.9), the temporal variability of AOT data at specific AERONET locations was not well captured by the model. Statistical analyses of model-simulated AOT data at AERONET ground stations showed a significant decrease in the model biases suggesting that wildfire emissions are responsible for a 30% enhancement in mean AOT values during the heat-wave episode. The

  19. Development of a Parameterization for Mesoscale Hydrological Modeling and Application to Landscape and Climate Change in the Interior Alaska Boreal Forest Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endalamaw, Abraham Melesse

    The Interior Alaska boreal forest ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems on earth and lies between the warmer southerly temperate and colder Arctic regions. The ecosystem is underlain by discontinuous permafrost. The presence or absence of permafrost primarily controls water pathways and ecosystem composition. As a result, the region hosts two distinct ecotypes that transition over a very short spatial scale--often on the order of meters. Accurate mesoscale hydrological modeling of the region is critical as the region is experiencing unprecedented ecological and hydrological changes that have regional and global implications. However, accurate representation of the landscape heterogeneity and mesoscale hydrological processes has remained a big challenge. This study addressed this challenge by developing a simple landscape model from the hill-slope studies and in situ measurements over the past several decades. The new approach improves the mesoscale prediction of several hydrological processes including streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET). The impact of climate induced landscape change under a changing climate is also investigated. In the projected climate scenario, Interior Alaska is projected to undergo a major landscape shift including transitioning from a coniferous-dominated to deciduous-dominated ecosystem and from discontinuous permafrost to either a sporadic or isolated permafrost region. This major landscape shift is predicted to have a larger and complex impact in the predicted runoff, evapotranspiration, and moisture deficit (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). Overall, a large increase in runoff, evapotranspiration, and moisture deficit is predicted under future climate. Most hydrological climate change impact studies do not usually include the projected change in landscape into the model. In this study, we found that ignoring the projected ecosystem change could lead to an inaccurate conclusion. Hence climate induced vegetation and

  20. Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baldassare Bacchi

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This introductory paper presents and summarises recent research on meteorological and hydrological aspects of floods in the Alps. The research activities were part of the international research project RAPHAEL (Runoff and Atmospheric Processes for flood HAzard forEcasting and controL together with experiments within the Special Observing Period-SOP conducted in autumn 1999 for the Mesoscale Alpine Programme —MAP. The investigations were based on both field experiments and numerical simulations, using meteorological and hydrological models, of ten major floods that occurred in the past decade in the European Alps. The two basins investigated were the Ticino (6599 km2 at the Lago Maggiore outlet on the southern side of the Alps and the Ammer catchment (709 km2 in the Bavarian Alps. These catchments and their sub-catchments cover an appropriate range of spatial scales with which to investigate and test in an operational context the potential of both mesoscale meteorological and distributed hydrological models for flood forecasting. From the data analyses and model simulations described in this Special Issue, the major sources of uncertainties for flood forecasts in mid-size mountain basins are outlined and the accuracy flood forecasts is assessed. Keywords: floods, mountain hydrology, meteorological models, Alps

  1. Simulating the Refractive Index Structure Constant ({C}_{n}^{2}) in the Surface Layer at Antarctica with a Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Tian, Qiguo; Liu, Dong; Rao, Ruizhong; Zhu, Wenyue

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce an approach wherein the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is coupled with the bulk aerodynamic method to estimate the surface layer refractive index structure constant (C n 2) above Taishan Station in Antarctica. First, we use the measured meteorological parameters to estimate C n 2 using the bulk aerodynamic method, and second, we use the WRF model output parameters to estimate C n 2 using the bulk aerodynamic method. Finally, the corresponding C n 2 values from the micro-thermometer are compared with the C n 2 values estimated using the WRF model coupled with the bulk aerodynamic method. We analyzed the statistical operators—the bias, root mean square error (RMSE), bias-corrected RMSE (σ), and correlation coefficient (R xy )—in a 20 day data set to assess how this approach performs. In addition, we employ contingency tables to investigate the estimation quality of this approach, which provides complementary key information with respect to the bias, RMSE, σ, and R xy . The quantitative results are encouraging and permit us to confirm the fine performance of this approach. The main conclusions of this study tell us that this approach provides a positive impact on optimizing the observing time in astronomical applications and provides complementary key information for potential astronomical sites.

  2. Modeling for pollution dispersion and air quality. 3.: meteorological data and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertagna, Silvia

    2005-01-01

    To better and correctly choose the suitable modeling system to use, it is necessary previously to define with objective criteria the characteristic of the problem to be studied and to gather together a great amount of input data and information, needed by the model, regarding, namely, the meteorological diffusive conditions of the atmosphere, the characteristic of the emission source (type, number, site etc.) and the characteristic of the area of interest (as land use and orography). In this work, the main different typologies of input data, which occur to simulate the air pollutant dispersion, are described, together with the instruments to obtain them: they include the consultation and the elaboration of information coming from databases and inventories appositely built and often also the use of other models or dedicated SW programs [it

  3. A Mesoscale Model-Based Climatography of Nocturnal Boundary-Layer Characteristics over the Complex Terrain of North-Western Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafin, Stefano; De Wekker, Stephan F J; Knievel, Jason C

    Nocturnal boundary-layer phenomena in regions of complex topography are extremely diverse and respond to a multiplicity of forcing factors, acting primarily at the mesoscale and microscale. The interaction between different physical processes, e.g., drainage promoted by near-surface cooling and ambient flow over topography in a statically stable environment, may give rise to special flow patterns, uncommon over flat terrain. Here we present a climatography of boundary-layer flows, based on a 2-year archive of simulations from a high-resolution operational mesoscale weather modelling system, 4DWX. The geographical context is Dugway Proving Ground, in north-western Utah, USA, target area of the field campaigns of the MATERHORN (Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations Program) project. The comparison between model fields and available observations in 2012-2014 shows that the 4DWX model system provides a realistic representation of wind speed and direction in the area, at least in an average sense. Regions displaying strong spatial gradients in the field variables, thought to be responsible for enhanced nocturnal mixing, are typically located in transition areas from mountain sidewalls to adjacent plains. A key dynamical process in this respect is the separation of dynamically accelerated downslope flows from the surface.

  4. Performance of the meteorological radiation model during the solar eclipse of 29 March 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. E. Psiloglou

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Various solar broadband models have been developed in the last half of the 20th century. The driving demand has been the estimation of available solar energy at different locations on earth for various applications. The motivation for such developments, though, has been the ample lack of solar radiation measurements at global scale. Therefore, the main goal of such codes is to generate artificial solar radiation series or calculate the availability of solar energy at a place.

    One of the broadband models to be developed in the late 80's was the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM. The main advantage of MRM over other similar models was its simplicity in acquiring and using the necessary input data, i.e. air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and sunshine duration from any of the many meteorological stations.

    The present study describes briefly the various steps (versions of MRM and in greater detail the latest version 5. To show the flexibility and great performance of the MRM, a harsh test of the code under the (almost total solar eclipse conditions of 29 March 2006 over Athens was performed and comparison of its results with real measurements was made. From this hard comparison it is shown that the MRM can simulate solar radiation during a solar eclipse event as effectively as on a typical day. Because of the main interest in solar energy applications about the total radiation component, MRM focuses on that. For this component, the RMSE and MBE statistical estimators during this study were found to be 7.64% and −1.67% on 29 March as compared to the respective 5.30% and +2.04% for 28 March. This efficiency of MRM even during an eclipse makes the model promising for easy handling of typical situations with even better results.

  5. Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Su Kwon

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM, classification and regression tree (CART, and random forest (RF. We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

  6. An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jason G; Brauer, Michael; Ainslie, Bruce; Steyn, Douw; Larson, Timothy; Buzzelli, Michael

    2008-02-15

    The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.

  7. The first mathematical models of dynamic meteorology: The Berlin prize contest of 1746

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, J.; Pelkowski, J. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The first models of dynamic meteorology were published in 1747 as a result of a prize contest of the Academy of Prussia. The topic of the contest concerned the determination of the winds 'if the Earth were surrounded everywhere by an ocean'. D'Alembert formulated a shallow water model for the first time in his prize-winning contribution and attempted to calculate tidal motions within the fluid layers. Daniel Bernoulli viewed the atmosphere as a boundary layer wherein the winds rotating with the earth at low elevations have to adjust their motion to a solar atmosphere at large heights. He is first in applying the principle of angular momentum conservation in continuum geophysics when calculating the zonal wind profile. An account of the historical background of the contest is given, as well as some later reactions to d'Alembert's solution. (orig.)

  8. Comparison of surface meteorological data representativeness for the Weldon Spring transport and dispersion modeling analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.

    1989-06-01

    The US Department of Energy is conducting the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project under the Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP). The major goals of the SFMP are to eliminate potential hazards to the public and the environment that associated with contamination at SFMP sites and to make surplus property available for other uses to the extent possible. This report presents the results of analysis of available meteorological data from stations near the Weldon Spring site. Data that are most representative of site conditions are needed to accurately model the transport and dispersion of air pollutants associated with remedial activities. Such modeling will assist the development of mitigative measures. 17 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs

  9. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  10. Mesoscale inversion of carbon sources and sinks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauvaux, T.

    2008-01-01

    Inverse methods at large scales are used to infer the spatial variability of carbon sources and sinks over the continents but their uncertainties remain large. Atmospheric concentrations integrate the surface flux variability but atmospheric transport models at low resolution are not able to simulate properly the local atmospheric dynamics at the measurement sites. However, the inverse estimates are more representative of the large spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystems compared to direct flux measurements. Top-down and bottom-up methods that aim at quantifying the carbon exchanges between the surface and the atmosphere correspond to different scales and are not easily comparable. During this phD, a mesoscale inverse system was developed to correct carbon fluxes at 8 km resolution. The high resolution transport model MesoNH was used to simulate accurately the variability of the atmospheric concentrations, which allowed us to reduce the uncertainty of the retrieved fluxes. All the measurements used here were observed during the intensive regional campaign CERES of May and June 2005, during which several instrumented towers measured CO 2 concentrations and fluxes in the South West of France. Airborne measurements allowed us to observe concentrations at high altitude but also CO 2 surface fluxes over large parts of the domain. First, the capacity of the inverse system to correct the CO 2 fluxes was estimated using pseudo-data experiments. The largest fraction of the concentration variability was attributed to regional surface fluxes over an area of about 300 km around the site locations depending on the meteorological conditions. Second, an ensemble of simulations allowed us to define the spatial and temporal structures of the transport errors. Finally, the inverse fluxes at 8 km resolution were compared to direct flux measurements. The inverse system has been validated in space and time and showed an improvement of the first guess fluxes from a vegetation model

  11. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  12. Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

  13. Comparison of mesoscale model and tower measurements of surface fluxes during Winter Icing and Storms Program/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement 91

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oncley, S.P.; Dudhia, J.

    1994-01-01

    This study is an evaluation of the ability of the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (MM4) to determine surface fluxes to see if measured fluxes should be assimilated into model runs. Fluxes were compared from a high-resolution (5 km grid spacing) MM4 run during one day of the Winter Icing and Storms Programs/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (WISP/ARM) experiment (over NE Colorado in winter 1991) with direct flux measurements made from a tower over a representative site by a three-dimensional sonic anemometer and fast response temperature and humidity sensors. This tower was part of the NCAR Atmosphere-Surface Turbulent Exchange Research (ASTER) facility. Also, mean values were compared to check whether any differences were due to the model parameterization or model variables

  14. Meteorological determinants of air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turoldo, F.; Del Frate, S.; Gallai, I.; Giaiotti, D. B.; Montanari, F.; Stel, F.; Goi, D.

    2010-09-01

    Air quality is the result of complex phenomena, among which the major role is played by human emissions of pollutants. Atmospheric processes act as determinants, e.g., modulating, dumping or amplifying the effects of emissions as an orchestra's director does with musical instruments. In this work, a series of small-scale and meso-scale meteorological determinants of air-quality are presented as they are observed in an area characterized by complex orography (Friuli Venezia Giulia, in the north-eastern side of Italy). In particular, attention is devoted to: i) meso-scale flows favouring the persistence of high concentrations of particulate matter; ii) meso-scale periodic flows (breezes) favouring high values of particulate matter; iii) local-scale thermodynamic behaviour favouring high atmospheric values of nitrogen oxides. The effects of these different classes of determinants are shown through comparisons between anthropic emissions (mainly traffic) and ground-based measurements. The relevance of complex orography (relatively steep relieves near to the sea) is shown for the meso-scale flows and, in particular, for local-scale periodic flows, which favour the increase of high pollutants concentrations mainly in summer, when the breezes regime is particularly relevant. Part of these results have been achieved through the ETS - Alpine Space EU project iMONITRAF!

  15. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  16. Meso- and Micro-scale Modelling in China: Wind atlas analysis for 12 meteorological stations in NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Yang, Z.; Hansen, Jens Carsten

    As part of the “Meso-Scale and Micro-Scale Modelling in China” project, also known as the CMA component of the Sino-Danish Wind Energy Development Programme (WED), microscale modelling and analyses have been carried out for 12 meteorological stations in NE China. Wind speed and direction data from...

  17. Shade material evaluation using a cattle response model and meteorological instrumentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigenberg, Roger A; Brown-Brandl, Tami M; Nienaber, John A

    2010-11-01

    Shade structures are often considered as one method of reducing stress in feedlot cattle. Selection of a suitable shade material can be difficult without data that quantify material effectiveness for stress reduction. A summer study was conducted during 2007 using instrumented shade structures in conjunction with meteorological measurements to estimate relative effectiveness of various shade materials. Shade structures were 3.6 m by 6.0 m by 3.0 m high at the peak and 2.0 m high at the sides. Polyethylene shade cloth was used in three of the comparisons and consisted of effective coverings of 100%, 60% with a silver reflective coating, and 60% black material with no reflective coating. Additionally, one of the structures was fitted with a poly snow fence with an effective shade of about 30%. Each shade structure contained a solar radiation meter and a black globe thermometer to measure radiant energy received under the shade material. Additionally, meteorological data were collected as a non-shaded treatment and included temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Data analyses was conducted using a physiological model based on temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed; a second model using black globe temperatures, relative humidity, and wind speed was used as well. Analyses of the data revealed that time spent in the highest stress category was reduced by all shade materials. Moreover, significant differences (P < 0.05) existed between all shade materials (compared to no-shade) for hourly summaries during peak daylight hours and for 'full sun' days.

  18. Real-Time Mesoscale Prediction on workstations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotton, William R.; Thompson, Gregory; Mieike, Paul W., Jr.

    1994-03-01

    Experience in performing real-time mesoscale numerical prediction forecasts using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) over Colorado for a winter season on high-performance workstations is summarized. Performance evaluation is done for specific case studies and, statistically, for the entire winter season. RAMS forecasts are also compared with nested grid model forecasts. In addition, RAMS precipitation forecasts with a simple "dump bucket" scheme are compared with explicit, bulk microphysics parameterization schemes. The potential applications and political/ social problems of having a readily accessible, real-time mesoscale forecasting capability on low-cost, high-performance workstations is discussed.

  19. The American Meteorological Society Education Program Model for Climate Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbeck, R. S.; Moran, J. M.; Geer, I. W.; Hopkins, E. J.

    2007-12-01

    A guiding principle of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Education Program is that public scientific literacy is most effectively achieved through systemic change in the classroom. The AMS, partnering with NOAA, NSF, NASA, the US Navy, and SUNY Brockport, aims for greater public scientific literacy through its successful distance learning programs that convey to pre-college teachers and undergraduates the fundamentals of meteorology, oceanography, and hydrology. The AMS DataStreme teacher-enhancement courses (Atmosphere, Water in the Earth System, and Ocean) have changed the way thousands of pre-college teachers teach and hundreds of thousands of students learn. Furthermore, teachers trained in this program are positioned to contribute to local and statewide curriculum reform. The AMS Online Weather Studies and Online Ocean Studies courses are providing tens of thousands of college undergraduates with engaging and highly motivational learning experiences. DataStreme courses are offered locally and feature mentoring of teacher participants whereas Online undergraduate courses are licensed by AMS for offering by colleges and universities. Integrated components of the AMS model are course website, investigations manual, and customized textbook. A portion of twice-weekly investigations is written to a near real-time situation and posted on the course website. Through its extensive experience with the DataStreme/Online programs, the AMS Education Program is now uniquely poised to assume a national leadership role in climate education by applying its proven teaching/learning model to climate education at the pre-college and undergraduate levels. The AMS model is ideally suited for delivering to teachers and students nationwide the basic understandings and enduring ideas of climate science and the role of the individual and society in climate variability and change. The AMS teaching/learning model incorporates an Earth system perspective, is problem focused, and

  20. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent: Interplay of sea breeze, trade wind, typhoon, and topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Ge, Cui; Yang, Zhifeng; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Chew, Boon-Ning; Mahmud, Mastura; Zhang, Yongxin; Zhang, Meigen

    2013-03-01

    The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRFchem) is used to simulate the transport of smoke particles over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent during September-October 2006. In this period, dry conditions associated with the moderate El Niño event caused the largest regional biomass burning outbreak since 1997. Smoke emission in WRFchem is specified according to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) database derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. The modeled smoke transport pathway is found to be consistent with the MODIS true color images and measured mass concentration of surface PM10 (particulate matter with diameter less than 10 μm). The interplay of sea/land breezes, typhoons and storms over the subtropical western Pacific Ocean, trade winds, and topographic effects, can be clearly seen in the model simulation. The most severe smoke events in 1-5 October 2006 are found to be associated with the meteorological responses to the typhoon Xangsane (#18) over the western subtropical Pacific Ocean, which moved smoke from Sumatra eastward in the lower troposphere (below 700 hPa), forming smoke layers mixed with and above the boundary layer clouds over Borneo. In contrast, the second largest week-long smoke transport event of 15-18 October 2006 was associated with the seasonal monsoonal transition period, during which smoke plumes were wide spread over the 5°S-5°N zone as a result of (a) the near surface divergence coupled with the 700 hPa bifurcation of wind (flowing both to the west and to the east), and (b) the near-surface southeasterly and easterly winds along the equator transporting smoke from Borneo to Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia. Analysis of data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP) shows that smoke particles in October 2006 were primarily located within 3.5 km above the surface. Smoke particles contributed roughly half

  1. Mesoscale Connections Summer 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kippen, Karen Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bourke, Mark Andrew M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-06-21

    Our challenge derives from the fact that in metals or explosives grains, interfaces and defects control engineering performance in ways that are neither amenable to continuum codes (which fail to rigorously describe the heterogeneities derived from microstructure) nor computationally tractable to first principles atomistic calculations. This is a region called the mesoscale, which stands at the frontier of our desire to translate fundamental science insights into confidence in aging system performance over the range of extreme conditions relevant in a nuclear weapon. For dynamic problems, the phenomena of interest can require extremely good temporal resolutions. A shock wave traveling at 1000 m/s (or 1 mm/μs) passes through a grain with a diameter of 1 micron in a nanosecond (10-9 sec). Thus, to observe the mesoscale phenomena—such as dislocations or phase transformations—as the shock passes, temporal resolution better than picoseconds (10-12 sec) may be needed. As we anticipate the science challenges over the next decade, experimental insights on material performance at the micron spatial scale with picosecond temporal resolution—at the mesoscale— are a clear challenge. This is a challenge fit for Los Alamos in partnership with our sister labs and academia. Mesoscale Connections will draw attention to our progress as we tackle the mesoscale challenge. We hope you like it and encourage suggestions of content you are interested in.

  2. Evaluation of an atmospheric model with surface and ABL meteorological data for energy applications in structured areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, A. G.; Kalogiros, J.; Krestou, A.; Leivaditou, E.; Zoumakis, N.; Bouris, D.; Garas, S.; Konstantinidis, E.; Wang, Q.

    2018-03-01

    This paper provides the performance evaluation of the meteorological component of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM), a nestable prognostic model, in predicting meteorological variables in urban areas, for both its surface layer and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence parameterizations. The model was modified by incorporating four urban land surface types, replacing the existing single urban surface. Control runs were carried out over the wider area of Kozani, an urban area in NW Greece. The model was evaluated for both surface and ABL meteorological variables by using measurements of near-surface and vertical profiles of wind and temperature. The data were collected by using monitoring surface stations in selected sites as well as an acoustic sounder (SOnic Detection And Ranging (SODAR), up to 300 m above ground) and a radiometer profiler (up to 600 m above ground). The results showed the model demonstrated good performance in predicting the near-surface meteorology in the Kozani region for both a winter and a summer month. In the ABL, the comparison showed that the model's forecasts generally performed well with respect to the thermal structure (temperature profiles and ABL height) but overestimated wind speed at the heights of comparison (mostly below 200 m) up to 3-4 ms-1.

  3. Artificial neural network models of relationships between Alternaria spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin (Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinn-Gofroń, Agnieszka; Strzelczak, Agnieszka

    2008-11-01

    Alternaria is an airborne fungal spore type known to trigger respiratory allergy symptoms in sensitive patients. Aiming to reduce the risk for allergic individuals, we constructed predictive models for the fungal spore circulation in Szczecin, Poland. Monthly forecasting models were developed for the airborne spore concentrations of Alternaria, which is one of the most abundant fungal taxa in the area. Aerobiological sampling was conducted over 2004-2007, using a Lanzoni trap. Simultaneously, the following meteorological parameters were recorded: daily level of precipitation; maximum and average wind speed; relative humidity; and maximum, minimum, average, and dew point temperature. The original factors as well as with lags (up to 3 days) were used as the explaining variables. Due to non-linearity and non-normality of the data set, the modelling technique applied was the artificial neural network (ANN) method. The final model was a split model with classification (spore presence or absence) followed by regression for spore seasons and log(x+1) transformed Alternaria spore concentration. All variables except maximum wind speed and precipitation were important factors in the overall classification model. In the regression model for spore seasons, close relationships were noted between Alternaria spore concentration and average and maximum temperature (on the same day and 3 days previously), humidity (with lag 1) and maximum wind speed 2 days previously. The most important variable was humidity recorded on the same day. Our study illustrates a novel approach to modelling of time series with short spore seasons, and indicates that the ANN method provides the possibility of forecasting Alternaria spore concentration with high accuracy.

  4. A molten salt tower model used for site selection in South Africa using SAURAN meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Ian Vincent; Dinter, Frank

    2017-06-01

    South Africa has become a hotspot for concentrating solar power (CSP) development in recent years. With an abundance of solar resource and an existing governmental framework for renewable energy development, the country has captured the attention of CSP developers worldwide. The primary limitations for CSP plants in South Africa are electrical transmission and water availability. While taking into account such infrastructure limitations, six sites were proposed. A purpose-built simulation model for a proposed 100 MWe (gross) tower plant with 12 hours of storage was developed. Using site South African Universities Radiometric Network (SAURAN) meteorological data with a resolution of up to 1 minute, each of the sites was evaluated in terms of electrical yield using the model. The investigation found that the site situated in Springbok will generate 450.8 GWhe per annum, and is the most advantageous site for the modeled plant. The most promising alternative site is situated in near Laingsburg in the Western Province. This site offered 413.7 GWhe per annum, and it is close to available transmission and surface water.

  5. Estimating the surface layer refractive index structure constant over snow and sea ice using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory with a mesoscale atmospheric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Huang, Honghua; Tian, Qiguo; Zhu, Wenyue; Rao, Ruizhong; Li, Xuebin

    2016-09-05

    Since systematic direct measurements of refractive index structure constant ( Cn2) for many climates and seasons are not available, an indirect approach is developed in which Cn2 is estimated from the mesoscale atmospheric model outputs. In previous work, we have presented an approach that a state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Monin-Obukhov Similarity (MOS) theory which can be used to estimate surface layer Cn2 over the ocean. Here this paper is focused on surface layer Cn2 over snow and sea ice, which is the extending of estimating surface layer Cn2 utilizing WRF model for ground-based optical application requirements. This powerful approach is validated against the corresponding 9-day Cn2 data from a field campaign of the 30th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE). We employ several statistical operators to assess how this approach performs. Besides, we present an independent analysis of this approach performance using the contingency tables. Such a method permits us to provide supplementary key information with respect to statistical operators. These methods make our analysis more robust and permit us to confirm the excellent performances of this approach. The reasonably good agreement in trend and magnitude is found between estimated values and measurements overall, and the estimated Cn2 values are even better than the ones obtained by this approach over the ocean surface layer. The encouraging performance of this approach has a concrete practical implementation of ground-based optical applications over snow and sea ice.

  6. Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

    2012-07-01

    To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

  7. Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh K Biswas

    Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

  8. Different effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in various climates: a spatial panel data model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Cao, Kai; Zhang, Yingjie; Fang, Liqun; Li, Xia; Xu, Qin; Huang, Fangfang; Tao, Lixin; Guo, Jin; Gao, Qi; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-05-26

    Major outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in China since 2008, posing a great threat to the health of children. Although many studies have examined the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD, the results have been inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD occurrence in different climates of mainland China using spatial panel data models. All statistical analyses were carried out according to different climate types. We firstly conducted a descriptive analysis to summarize the epidemic characteristics of HFMD from May 2008 to November 2012 and then detected the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD using a global autocorrelation statistic (Moran's I) in each month. Finally, the association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was explored by spatial panel data models. The 353 regions were divided into 4 groups according to climate (G1: subtropical monsoon climate; G2: temperate monsoon climate; G3: temperate continental climate; G4: plateau mountain climate). The Moran's I values were significant with high correlations in most months of group G1 and G2 and some months of group G3 and G4. This suggested the existence of a high spatial autocorrelation with HFMD. Spatial panel data models were more appropriate to describe the data than fixed effect models. The results showed that HFMD incidences were significantly associated with average atmospheric pressure (AAP), average temperature (AT), average vapor pressure (AVP), average relative humidity (ARH), monthly precipitation (MP), average wind speed (AWS), monthly total sunshine hours (MSH), mean temperature difference (MTD), rain day (RD) and average temperature distance (ATD), but the effect of meteorological factors might differ in various climate types. Spatial panel data models are useful and effective when longitudinal data are available and spatial autocorrelation exists. Our findings showed that

  9. Use of ARM observations and numerical models to determine radiative and latent heating profiles of mesoscale convective systems for general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houze, Jr., Robert A. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    2013-11-13

    We examined cloud radar data in monsoon climates, using cloud radars at Darwin in the Australian monsoon, on a ship in the Bay of Bengal in the South Asian monsoon, and at Niamey in the West African monsoon. We followed on with a more in-depth study of the continental MCSs over West Africa. We investigated whether the West African anvil clouds connected with squall line MCSs passing over the Niamey ARM site could be simulated in a numerical model by comparing the observed anvil clouds to anvil structures generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model at high resolution using six different ice-phase microphysical schemes. We carried out further simulations with a cloud-resolving model forced by sounding network budgets over the Niamey region and over the northern Australian region. We have devoted some of the effort of this project to examining how well satellite data can determine the global breadth of the anvil cloud measurements obtained at the ARM ground sites. We next considered whether satellite data could be objectively analyzed to so that their large global measurement sets can be systematically related to the ARM measurements. Further differences were detailed between the land and ocean MCS anvil clouds by examining the interior structure of the anvils with the satellite-detected the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR). The satellite survey of anvil clouds in the Indo-Pacific region was continued to determine the role of MCSs in producing the cloud pattern associated with the MJO.

  10. Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W. K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.; Shie, C. -L.; Lau, W. K. -M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David O' C. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard

  11. Mesoscale hybrid calibration artifact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Hy D.; Claudet, Andre A.; Oliver, Andrew D.

    2010-09-07

    A mesoscale calibration artifact, also called a hybrid artifact, suitable for hybrid dimensional measurement and the method for make the artifact. The hybrid artifact has structural characteristics that make it suitable for dimensional measurement in both vision-based systems and touch-probe-based systems. The hybrid artifact employs the intersection of bulk-micromachined planes to fabricate edges that are sharp to the nanometer level and intersecting planes with crystal-lattice-defined angles.

  12. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27

  13. Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology-chemistry modelling system: strategy, methodology, developments and applications (v7.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Hansen Sass, Bent; Rasmussen, Alix; Zakey, Ashraf; Kaas, Eigil; Kurganskiy, Alexander; Sørensen, Brian; González-Aparicio, Iratxe

    2017-08-01

    The Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) is developed as a fully online integrated numerical weather prediction (NWP) and atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model for research and forecasting of joint meteorological, chemical and biological weather. The integrated modelling system is developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in collaboration with several European universities. It is the baseline system in the HIRLAM Chemical Branch and used in several countries and different applications. The development was initiated at DMI more than 15 years ago. The model is based on the HIRLAM NWP model with online integrated pollutant transport and dispersion, chemistry, aerosol dynamics, deposition and atmospheric composition feedbacks. To make the model suitable for chemical weather forecasting in urban areas, the meteorological part was improved by implementation of urban parameterisations. The dynamical core was improved by implementing a locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme, which improves forecast accuracy and model performance. The current version (7.2), in comparison with previous versions, has a more advanced and cost-efficient chemistry, aerosol multi-compound approach, aerosol feedbacks (direct and semi-direct) on radiation and (first and second indirect effects) on cloud microphysics. Since 2004, the Enviro-HIRLAM has been used for different studies, including operational pollen forecasting for Denmark since 2009 and operational forecasting atmospheric composition with downscaling for China since 2017. Following the main research and development strategy, further model developments will be extended towards the new NWP platform - HARMONIE. Different aspects of online coupling methodology, research strategy and possible applications of the modelling system, and fit-for-purpose model configurations for the meteorological and air quality communities are discussed.

  14. Meteorological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Multi-year summaries of one or more meteorological elements at a station or in a state. Primarily includes Form 1078, a United States Weather Bureau form designed...

  15. Meteorology (OTTER)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Meteorology data collected on an hourly basis from stations located near the OTTER sites in 1990 and summarized to monthly data--see also: Canopy Chemistry (OTTER)

  16. Meteorology (OTTER)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: Meteorology data collected on an hourly basis from stations located near the OTTER sites in 1990 and summarized to monthly data--see also: Canopy Chemistry...

  17. Meteorology Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

    2001-01-01

    Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

  18. Implementation of a GNSS Meteorological model to the estimation of the Haines Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Laura Isabel; Aragon-Paz, Juan Manuel; Mendoza, Luciano Pedro Oscar; Meza, Amalia Margarita

    2017-04-01

    Wildfire indexes evaluate the risk of forest fire occurrences and the dangerousness of its large and erratic propagation. In this context, the widely used Haines Index assesses the potential contribution of the atmosphere in forecasting and monitoring the behavior of the plume-dominated wildfires. The main goal of this study is the analysis of advantages in applying the GPT2w, an empirical model originally developed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Meteorology, to the estimation of the Haines Index. To this aim, a statistical analysis of the differences between this estimation and the real values from radiosondes was performed. The selected area comprises a region of South America between latitudes 15° S and 35° S. This area was chosen due to the availability of the radiosonde launches required for validation during the year of study (2011). Previously, for characterizing the expected regional performance of the Haines Index, the Climatology was developed by using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis model (ERA Interim) for the period 2000-2011. Afterwards a statistical analysis of the differences between the index estimation from the application of the GPT2w with respect to the real index values, that is: Haines index calculated from radiosonde measurements was performed. Moreover, the additional estimation of the Haines Index by using multi-level data from ERA Interim at the same control stations was also provided. Because the GPT2w model is freely available, the analysis of the results discusses the advantages of using this approach where radiosonde launches are scarce. Likewise, strategies for improving the deficiencies of this estimate are also presented.

  19. Modeling the reactive halogen plume from Ambrym and its impact on the troposphere with the CCATT-BRAMS mesoscale model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jourdain

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Ambrym Volcano (Vanuatu, southwest Pacific is one of the largest sources of continuous volcanic emissions worldwide. As well as releasing SO2 that is oxidized to sulfate, volcanic plumes in the troposphere are shown to undergo reactive halogen chemistry whose atmospheric impacts have been little explored to date. Here, we investigate with the regional-scale model CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model, Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, version 4.3 the chemical processing in the Ambrym plume and the impact of this volcano on the atmospheric chemistry on both local and regional scales. We focus on an episode of extreme passive degassing that occurred in early 2005 and for which airborne DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy measurements of SO2 and BrO columns in the near-downwind plume between 15 and 40 km from the vents have been reported. The model was developed to include reactive halogen chemistry and a volcanic emission source specific to this extreme degassing event. In order to test our understanding of the volcanic plume chemistry, we performed very high-resolution (500 m  ×  500 m simulations using the model nesting grid capability and compared each DOAS measurement to its temporally and spatially interpolated model counterpart “point-by-point”. Simulated SO2 columns show very good quantitative agreement with the DOAS observations, suggesting that the plume direction as well as its dilution in the near-downwind plume are well captured. The model also reproduces the salient features of volcanic chemistry as reported in previous work, such as HOx and ozone depletion in the core of the plume. When a high-temperature chemistry initialization is included, the model is able to capture the observed BrO ∕ SO2 trend with distance from the vent. The main discrepancy between observations and model is the bias between the magnitudes of observed and

  20. Modeling the reactive halogen plume from Ambrym and its impact on the troposphere with the CCATT-BRAMS mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jourdain, Line; Roberts, Tjarda Jane; Pirre, Michel; Josse, Beatrice

    2016-09-01

    Ambrym Volcano (Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) is one of the largest sources of continuous volcanic emissions worldwide. As well as releasing SO2 that is oxidized to sulfate, volcanic plumes in the troposphere are shown to undergo reactive halogen chemistry whose atmospheric impacts have been little explored to date. Here, we investigate with the regional-scale model CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model, Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, version 4.3) the chemical processing in the Ambrym plume and the impact of this volcano on the atmospheric chemistry on both local and regional scales. We focus on an episode of extreme passive degassing that occurred in early 2005 and for which airborne DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy) measurements of SO2 and BrO columns in the near-downwind plume between 15 and 40 km from the vents have been reported. The model was developed to include reactive halogen chemistry and a volcanic emission source specific to this extreme degassing event. In order to test our understanding of the volcanic plume chemistry, we performed very high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) simulations using the model nesting grid capability and compared each DOAS measurement to its temporally and spatially interpolated model counterpart "point-by-point". Simulated SO2 columns show very good quantitative agreement with the DOAS observations, suggesting that the plume direction as well as its dilution in the near-downwind plume are well captured. The model also reproduces the salient features of volcanic chemistry as reported in previous work, such as HOx and ozone depletion in the core of the plume. When a high-temperature chemistry initialization is included, the model is able to capture the observed BrO / SO2 trend with distance from the vent. The main discrepancy between observations and model is the bias between the magnitudes of observed and simulated BrO columns that ranges from 60

  1. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity...... - heat flux related measurement, e.g. a temperature gradient, are used to give local values of friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length plus an estimate of the mixing height. The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain is an integral part of the RODOS - Real Time On Line Decision Support - program...

  2. Smart Irrigation From Soil Moisture Forecast Using Satellite And Hydro -Meteorological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ceppi, Alessandro; Salerno, Raffaele; Sobrino, Josè

    2017-04-01

    Increased water demand and climate change impacts have recently enhanced the need to improve water resources management, even in those areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water. The highest consumption of water is devoted to irrigation for agricultural production, and so it is in this area that efforts have to be focused to study possible interventions. The SIM project funded by EU in the framework of the WaterWorks2014 - Water Joint Programming Initiative aims at developing an operational tool for real-time forecast of crops irrigation water requirements to support parsimonious water management and to optimize irrigation scheduling providing real-time and forecasted soil moisture behavior at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days. This study discusses advances in coupling satellite driven soil water balance model and meteorological forecast as support for precision irrigation use comparing different case studies in Italy, in the Netherlands, in China and Spain, characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation techniques and water distribution rules. Herein, the applications in two operative farms in vegetables production in the South of Italy where semi-arid climatic conditions holds, two maize fields in Northern Italy in a more water reach environment with flood irrigation will be presented. This system combines state of the art mathematical models and new technologies for environmental monitoring, merging ground observed data with Earth observations. Discussion on the methodology approach is presented, comparing for a reanalysis periods the forecast system outputs with observed soil moisture and crop water needs proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits. The real-time visualization of the implemented system is also presented through web-dashboards.

  3. Coupling of Large Eddy Simulations with Meteorological Models to simulate Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Storage Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, K.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric transport is usually performed with weather models, e.g., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that employs a parameterized turbulence model and does not resolve the fine scale dynamics generated by the flow around buildings and features comprising a large city. The NIST Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a computational fluid dynamics model that utilizes large eddy simulation methods to model flow around buildings at length scales much smaller than is practical with models like WRF. FDS has the potential to evaluate the impact of complex topography on near-field dispersion and mixing that is difficult to simulate with a mesoscale atmospheric model. A methodology has been developed to couple the FDS model with WRF mesoscale transport models. The coupling is based on nudging the FDS flow field towards that computed by WRF, and is currently limited to one way coupling performed in an off-line mode. This approach allows the FDS model to operate as a sub-grid scale model with in a WRF simulation. To test and validate the coupled FDS - WRF model, the methane leak from the Aliso Canyon underground storage facility was simulated. Large eddy simulations were performed over the complex topography of various natural gas storage facilities including Aliso Canyon, Honor Rancho and MacDonald Island at 10 m horizontal and vertical resolution. The goal of these simulations included improving and validating transport models as well as testing leak hypotheses. Forward simulation results were compared with aircraft and tower based in-situ measurements as well as methane plumes observed using the NASA Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and the next generation instrument AVIRIS-NG. Comparison of simulation results with measurement data demonstrate the capability of the coupled FDS-WRF models to accurately simulate the transport and dispersion of methane plumes over urban domains. Simulated integrated methane enhancements will be presented and

  4. k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Rong Chen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel methodology for very short term forecasting of hourly global solar irradiance (GSI. The proposed methodology is based on meteorology data, especially for optimizing the operation of power generating electricity from photovoltaic (PV energy. This methodology is a combination of k-nearest neighbor (k-NN algorithm modelling and artificial neural network (ANN model. The k-NN-ANN method is designed to forecast GSI for 60 min ahead based on meteorology data for the target PV station which position is surrounded by eight other adjacent PV stations. The novelty of this method is taking into account the meteorology data. A set of GSI measurement samples was available from the PV station in Taiwan which is used as test data. The first method implements k-NN as a preprocessing technique prior to ANN method. The error statistical indicators of k-NN-ANN model the mean absolute bias error (MABE is 42 W/m2 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE is 242 W/m2. The models forecasts are then compared to measured data and simulation results indicate that the k-NN-ANN-based model presented in this research can calculate hourly GSI with satisfactory accuracy.

  5. Modeling the impacts of green infrastructure land use changes on air quality and meteorology case study and sensitivity analysis in Kansas City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in vegetation cover associated with urban planning efforts may affect regional meteorology and air quality. Here we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes from green infrastructure impleme...

  6. North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) [12 km

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) is one of the major regional weather forecast models run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction...

  7. Assimilation of Doppler weather radar observations in a mesoscale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ) Doppler radar data in a numerical model for the prediction of mesoscale convective complexes around Chennai and Kolkata. Three strong convective events both over Chennai and Kolkata have been considered for the present study.

  8. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

    2002-01-01

    ... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

  9. Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pancrazio Bertaccini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular traffic plays an important role in atmospheric pollution and can be used as one of the key predictors in air-quality forecasting models. The models that can account for the role of traffic are especially valuable in urban areas, where high pollutant concentrations are often observed during particular times of day (rush hour and year (winter. In this paper, we develop a generalized additive models approach to analyze the behavior of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and particulate matter (PM10, collected at the environmental monitoring stations distributed throughout the city of Turin, Italy, from December 2003 to April 2005. We describe nonlinear relationships between predictors and pollutants, that are adjusted for unobserved time-varying confounders. We examine several functional forms for the traffic variable and find that a simple form can often provide adequate modeling power. Our analysis shows that there is a saturation effect of traffic on NO2, while such saturation is less evident in models linking traffic to PM10 behavior, having adjusted for meteorological covariates. Moreover, we consider the proposed models separately by seasons and highlight similarities and differences in the predictors’ partial effects. Finally, we show how forecasting can help in evaluating traffic regulation policies.

  10. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  11. The importance of meteorological scales to forecast air pollution scenarios on coastal complex terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Some of the meteorological approaches commonly considered in urban air pollution models do not take into account the importance of the smaller scales in the meteorology of complex-terrain coastal sites. The aim of this work is to estimate the impact of using the proper meteorological scales when simulating the behaviour of the pollutant concentrations emitted in the lower layers over coastal complex terrain areas. The availability of experimental measurements of a power plant plume near the Castellón conurbation (on the Spanish Mediterranean coast has allowed us to use this plume as a tracer of opportunity of the lower atmosphere to check the results of a simulation exercise using the RAMS mesoscale model coupled to the HYPACT particle model. The results obtained show that in a complex-terrain coastal site, because of the strong effect of the meteorological interactions between the different scales on the integral advection and the turbulent dispersion of pollutants, using an inadequate scale to solve the meteorology can result in a very big gap in the simulation of lower-layer pollutant behaviour at urban scales.

  12. Modelling Regional Surface Energy Exchange and Boundary Layer Development in Boreal Sweden — Comparison of Mesoscale Model (RAMS Simulations with Aircraft and Tower Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meelis Mölder

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of atmospheric and surface processes with an atmospheric model (RAMS during a period of ten days in August 2001 over a boreal area in Sweden were compared to tower measurements and aircraft measurements of vertical profiles as well as surface fluxes from low altitude flights. The shape of the vertical profiles was simulated reasonably well by the model although there were significant biases in absolute values. Surface fluxes were less well simulated and the model showed considerable sensitivity to initial soil moisture conditions. The simulations were performed using two different land cover databases, the original one supplied with the RAMS model and the more detailed CORINE database. The two different land cover data bases resulted in relatively large fine scale differences in the simulated values. The conclusion of this study is that RAMS has the potential to be used as a tool to estimate boundary layer conditions and surface fluxes and meteorology over a boreal area but also that further improvement is needed.

  13. The hydro-meteorological chain in Piemonte region, North Western Italy - analysis of the HYDROPTIMET test cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rabuffetti

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The HYDROPTIMET Project, Interreg IIIB EU program, is developed in the framework of the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to severe hydro-meteorological events and aims to the optimisation of Hydro-Meteorological warning systems by the experimentation of new tools (such as numerical models to be used operationally for risk assessment. The objects of the research are the mesoscale weather phenomena and the response of watersheds with size ranging from 102 to 103 km2. Non-hydrostatic meteorological models are used to catch such phenomena at a regional level focusing on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF. Furthermore hydrological Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF are performed by the simulation of run-off generation and flood propagation in the main rivers of the territory. In this way observed data and QPF are used, in a real-time configuration, for one-way forcing of the hydrological model that works operationally connected to the Piemonte Region Alert System. The main hydro-meteorological events that affected Piemonte Region in the last years are analysed, these are the HYDROPTIMET selected test cases of 14–18 November 2002 and 23–26 November 2002. The results obtained in terms of QPF and QDF offer a basis to evaluate the sensitivity of the whole hydro-meteorological chain to the uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Different configurations of non-hydrostatic meteorological models are also evaluated.

  14. Evaluation of the hydro-meteorological chain in Piemonte Region, north western Italy - analysis of two HYDROPTIMET test cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rabuffetti

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The HYDROPTIMET Project, Interreg IIIB EU program, is developed in the framework of the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to severe hydro-meteorological events and aims to the optimisation of Hydro-Meteorological warning systems by the experimentation of new tools (such as numerical models to be used operationally for risk assessment. The object of the research are the Mesoscale weather phenomena and the response of watersheds with size ranging from 102 to 103 km2. Non-hydrostatic meteorological models are used to catch such phenomena at a regional level focusing on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF. Furthermore hydrological Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF are performed by the simulation of run-off generation and flood propagation in the main rivers of the interested territory. In this way observed data and QPF are used, in a real-time configuration, for one-way forcing of the hydrological model that works operationally connected to the Piemonte Region Alert System. The main hydro-meteorological events that interested Piemonte Region in the last years are studied, these are the HYDROPTIMET selected test cases of 14-18 November 2002 and 23-26 November 2002. The results obtained in terms of QPF and QDF offer a sound basis to evaluate the sensitivity of the whole hydro-meteorological chain to the uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Different configurations of non-hydrostatic meteorological models are also analysed.

  15. Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milliez, Maya

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr

  16. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources - Part 1: Input meteorological forcing and natural hydrological cycle modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2007-10-01

    An integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. It simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). The simulation period is 10 years, from 1986 to 1995. This first part of the two-feature report describes the input meteorological forcing and natural hydrological cycle modules of the integrated model, namely the land surface hydrology module and the river routing module. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global, continental, and continental zonal mean scales, indicating the validity of the input meteorological data and land surface hydrology module. In individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 of the basins. The performance was similar to the best available precedent studies with closure of energy and water. The timing of the peak in streamflow and the shape of monthly hydrographs were well simulated in most of the river basins when large lakes or reservoirs did not affect them. The results indicate that the input meteorological forcing component and the land surface hydrology module provide a framework with which to assess global water resources, with the potential

  17. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

  18. Observed structure of mesoscale convective systems and implications for large-scale heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houze, Robert A., Jr.

    1989-01-01

    The model for the idealized tropical mesoscale convective system proposed by Houze (1982) is examined. Observations of the structure of mesoscale convective systems are used to determine the applicability of the conceptual model. Data on the vertical distribution of vertical air motion in the convective and stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems are discussed and the treatment of this distribution in Houze's model is considered.

  19. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  20. A New Scheme for the Simulation of Microscale Flow and Dispersion in Urban Areas by Coupling Large-Eddy Simulation with Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haifeng; Cui, Guixiang; Zhang, Zhaoshun

    2018-04-01

    A coupling scheme is proposed for the simulation of microscale flow and dispersion in which both the mesoscale field and small-scale turbulence are specified at the boundary of a microscale model. The small-scale turbulence is obtained individually in the inner and outer layers by the transformation of pre-computed databases, and then combined in a weighted sum. Validation of the results of a flow over a cluster of model buildings shows that the inner- and outer-layer transition height should be located in the roughness sublayer. Both the new scheme and the previous scheme are applied in the simulation of the flow over the central business district of Oklahoma City (a point source during intensive observation period 3 of the Joint Urban 2003 experimental campaign), with results showing that the wind speed is well predicted in the canopy layer. Compared with the previous scheme, the new scheme improves the prediction of the wind direction and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the canopy layer. The flow field influences the scalar plume in two ways, i.e. the averaged flow field determines the advective flux and the TKE field determines the turbulent flux. Thus, the mean, root-mean-square and maximum of the concentration agree better with the observations with the new scheme. These results indicate that the new scheme is an effective means of simulating the complex flow and dispersion in urban canopies.

  1. How biophysical interactions associated with sub- and mesoscale structures and migration behavior affect planktonic larvae of the spiny lobster in the Juan Fernández Ridge: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medel, Carolina; Parada, Carolina; Morales, Carmen E.; Pizarro, Oscar; Ernst, Billy; Conejero, Carlos

    2018-03-01

    The Juan Fernández Ridge (JFR) is a chain of topographical elevations in the eastern South Pacific (∼33-35°S, 76-81.5°W). Rich in endemic marine species, this ridge is frequently affected by the arrival of mesoscale eddies originating in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile. The impacts of these interactions on the structure and dynamics of the JFR pelagic system have, however, not been addressed yet. The present model-based study is focused on the coupled influence of mesoscale-submesoscale processes and biological behavior (i.e., diel vertical migration) on the horizontal distribution of planktonic larvae of the spiny lobster (Jasus frontalis) around the JFR waters. Two case studies were selected from a hydrodynamic Regional Ocean Modeling System to characterize mesoscale and submesoscale structures and an Individual-based model (IBM) to simulate diel vertical migration (DVM) and its impact on the horizontal distribution and the patchiness level. DVM behavior of these larvae has not been clearly characterized, therefore, three types of vertical mechanisms were assessed on the IBM: (1) no migration (LG), (2) a short migration (0-50 m depth, DVM1), and (3) a long migration (10-200 m depth, DVM2). The influence of physical properties (eddy kinetic energy, stretching deformation and divergence) on larval aggregation within meso and submesoscale features was quantified. The patchiness index assessed for mesoscale and submesoscale structures showed higher values in the mesoscale than in the submesoscale. However, submesoscale structures revealed a higher accumulation of particles by unit of area. Both vertical migration mechanisms produced larger patchiness indices compared to the no migration experiment. DVM2 was the one that showed by far the largest aggregation of almost all the aggregation zones. Larval concentrations were highest in the submesoscale structures; these zones were characterized by low eddy kinetic energy, negative stretching

  2. Statistical Model for Predicting Weather Through Lunar Phase - Meteorological Phenomena Relationships in Makassar City

    OpenAIRE

    Hasanah, Nur

    2012-01-01

    ome scientist had made an evidence to proof the relationship between lunar phase and meteorological phenomena in their own area. Here we also did the assignment statistically in the case of Makassar City, Indonesia. We were using official meteorologist data, such as rainfall, clouds, and temperature, covering a period 28 years from January 1984 to December 2011. The statistical analyses were done using discriminant analysis and persistence. Further, we tested the result with cross validation ...

  3. Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

  4. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po' Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15-50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  5. Turbulence Dissipation Rates in the Planetary Boundary Layer from Wind Profiling Radars and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models during WFIP2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, L.; McCaffrey, K.; Wilczak, J. M.; Olson, J. B.; Kenyon, J.

    2016-12-01

    When forecasting winds at a wind plant for energy production, the turbulence parameterizations in the forecast models are crucial for understanding wind plant performance. Recent research shows that the turbulence (eddy) dissipation rate in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes introduces significant uncertainty in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Thus, developing the capability to measure dissipation rates in the PBL will allow for identification of weaknesses in, and improvements to the parameterizations. During a preliminary field study at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory in spring 2015, a 915-MHz wind profiling radar (WPR) measured dissipation rates concurrently with sonic anemometers mounted on a 300-meter tower. WPR set-up parameters (e.g., spectral resolution), post-processing techniques (e.g., filtering for non-atmospheric signals), and spectral averaging were optimized to capture the most accurate Doppler spectra for measuring spectral widths for use in the computation of the eddy dissipation rates. These encouraging results lead to the implementation of the observing strategy on a 915-MHz WPR in Wasco, OR, operating as part of the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2). These observations are compared to dissipation rates calculated from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, a WRF-based mesoscale numerical weather prediction model run for WFIP2 at 3000 m horizontal grid spacing and with a nest, which has 750-meter horizontal grid spacing, in the complex terrain region of the Columbia River Gorge. The observed profiles of dissipation rates are used to evaluate the PBL parameterization schemes used in the HRRR model, which are based on the modeled turbulent kinetic energy and a tunable length scale.

  6. Meso-scale modelling of directional solidification and comparison with in situ X-ray radiographic observations made during the MASER-12 XRMON microgravity experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, A.G., E-mail: andrew.murphy.1@ucdconnect.ie [School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University College Dublin (Ireland); Reinhart, G.; Nguyen-Thi, H.; Salloum Abou Jaoude, G. [Aix-Marseille Univ., Campus Saint-Jérome Case 142, 13397 Marseille Cedex 20 (France); CNRS, IM2NP UMR 7334, Campus Saint-Jérome Case 142, 13397 Marseille Cedex 20 (France); Browne, D.J. [School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, University College Dublin (Ireland)

    2013-10-05

    Highlights: •Mesoscopic simulation of in situ X-ray monitored solidification in microgravity. •Extent and magnitude of undercooled zone ahead of dendrite front predicted. •Dynamic thermal response of new XRMON-GF Bridgman furnace analysed. -- Abstract: Computational modelling of advanced solidification processes has made considerable advances over the last half century, with ever increasing levels of modelling complexity. There is, therefore, an increasing need for state of the art experimental investigation to provide suitable validation for these model predictions. In situ X-ray radiography has become a powerful tool for solidification experimentation. Using either synchrotron or microfocus X-ray sources, thin samples, encased in X-ray transparent crucibles, can be directionally or isothermally solidified, allowing for direct real time observation of dynamic solidification phenomena. This paper presents the results of a meso-scale Front Tracking simulation of a directional solidification experiment, performed using an Al–20 wt.% Cu alloy, carried out under microgravity conditions on board the MASER 12 sounding rocket. The sample was mounted in a Bridgman type gradient furnace and solidified using a prescribed cooling regime with a constant gradient, thus promoting directional solidification in the field of view. The actual thermal gradient in the sample was found to be lower than the nominal thermal gradient, as set/recorded by thermocouples embedded in the heater elements. The adjusted thermal data were supplied as inputs to the Front Tracking model and good agreement was then observed between the model predictions and the in situ observations. The extent and amplitude of the undercooled zone ahead of the columnar front was predicted based on analytical growth kinetics laws and the results were also compared to analytical models of columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET) prediction.

  7. Mesoscale Polymer Assemblies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, Satyan; Pham, Jonathan; Crosby, Alfred

    2015-03-01

    Materials encompassing structural hierarchy and multi-functionality allow for remarkable physical properties across different length scales. Mesoscale Polymer (MSP) assemblies provide a critical link, from nanometer to centimeter scales, in the definition of such hierarchical structures. Recent focus has been on exploiting these MSP assemblies for optical, electronic, photonics and biological applications. We demonstrate a novel fabrication method for MSP assemblies. Current fabrication methods restrict the length scale and volume of such assemblies. A new method developed uses a simple piezo-actuated motion for de-pinning of a polymer solution trapped by capillary forces between a flexible blade and a rigid substrate. The advantages of new method include ability to make MSP of monodisperse length and to fabricate sufficient volumes of MSP to study their physical properties and functionality in liquid dispersions. We demonstrate the application of MSP as filler for soft materials, providing rheological studies of the MSP with surrounding matrices.

  8. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Josse

    1999-04-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

  9. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Giordani

    Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

  10. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-01

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  11. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecorari, Eliana, E-mail: eliana.pecorari@unive.it [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Mantovani, Alice [OSMOTECH S.r.l., via Francesco Sforza, 15, 20122 Milano (Italy); Franceschini, Chiara [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Bassano, Davide [SAVE S.p.A., Marco Polo Venice airport viale G. Galilei 30/1, 30173 Tessera-Venezia (Italy); Palmeri, Luca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, v. Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy); Rampazzo, Giancarlo [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy)

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  12. Monitoring ground water storage at mesoscale using seismic noise: 30 years of continuous observation and thermo-elastic and hydrological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Thomas; Longuevergne, Laurent; Pedersen, Helle Anette; Brenguier, Florent; Stammler, Klaus

    2017-10-27

    Groundwater is a vital freshwater resource for both humans and ecosystems. Achieving sustainable management requires a detailed knowledge of the aquifer structure and of its behavior in response to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. Traditional monitoring is carried out using piezometer networks, and recently complemented with new geophysical or satellite-based observations. These techniques survey either local (small-scale) water systems or regional areas (large scale) but, to date, adequate observation tools are lacking at the water management scale (i.e. several tens of kms), which is generally explored by modeling. Using 30 years of continuous recording by four seismic stations of the Gräfenberg Array (Germany), we demonstrate that long-term observations of velocity variations (approximately 0.01%) of surface waves can be extracted from such recordings of ocean-generated seismic noise. These small variations can be explained by changes to mechanical properties of the complex aquifer system in the top few hundred meters of the crust. The velocity changes can be interpreted as effects of temperature diffusion and water storage changes. Seismic noise recordings may become a new and valuable tool to monitor heterogeneous groundwater systems at mesoscale, in addition to existing observation methods.

  13. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  14. North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cerovecki, Ivana [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography; McClean, Julie [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography; Koracin, Darko [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States). Division of Atmospheric Sciences

    2014-11-14

    The overall objective of this study was to improve the representation of regional ocean circulation in the North Pacific by using high resolution atmospheric forcing that accurately represents mesoscale processes in ocean-atmosphere regional (North Pacific) model configuration. The goal was to assess the importance of accurate representation of mesoscale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean on large scale circulation. This is an important question, as mesoscale processes in the atmosphere which are resolved by the high resolution mesoscale atmospheric models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are absent in commonly used atmospheric forcing such as CORE forcing, employed in e.g. the Community Climate System Model (CCSM).

  15. Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB/BSC-ASH-v1.0: A novel multiscale meteorological model for operational forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau; Jorba, Oriol; Janjic, Zavisa

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic ash forecast became a research priority and a social concern as a consequence of the severe air-traffic disruptions caused by the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland, 2010) and Cordón Caulle (Chile, 2011) volcanoes. Significant progress has taken place in the aftermath of these dramatic events to improve the accuracy of Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal (VATD) models and lessen its associated uncertainties. Various levels of uncertainties affect both the quantification of the source term and the driving meteorological inputs. Substantial research is being performed to reduce and quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties affecting the source term. However, uncertainties arising from the driving NWPMs and its coupling offline with the VATDMs have received little attention, even if the experience from other communities (e.g. air quality) highlights the importance of coupling online dispersal and meteorological modeling. Consequently, the need for integrated predictions to represent these two-way feedback effects of the volcanic pollutants on local-scale meteorology is timely. The aim of this talk is to present the NMMB/BSC-ASH, a new on-line multi-scale meteorological model to simulate the emission, transport and deposition of tephra particles released from volcanic eruptions. The model builds on the NMMB/BSC Chemical Transport Model (NMMB/BSC-CTM), which we have modified to account for the specifics of volcanic particles. The final objective in developing the NMMB/BSC-ASH model is two-fold. On one hand, at a research level, we aim at studying the differences between the online/offline approaches and quantify the two-way feedback effect of dense volcanic ash clouds on the radiative budget and regional meteorology. On the other hand, at an operational level, the low computational cost of the NMMB dynamic core suggests that NMMB/BSC-ASH could be applied in a future for more accurate online operational forecasting of volcanic ash clouds.

  16. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity...... - heat flux related measurement, e.g. a temperature gradient, are used to give local values of friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length plus an estimate of the mixing height. The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain is an integral part of the RODOS - Real Time On Line Decision Support - program...... and direction measurements/NWP predictions, the LINCOM or the MCF flow model determines the wind field on a 1/2 to 1 km grid over the area of interest, taking the influence of orography and mixed roughness into consideration. For each grid point the obtained wind and the most appropriate - normally the nearest...

  17. Reduction of thermal models of buildings: improvement of techniques using meteorological influence models; Reduction de modeles thermiques de batiments: amelioration des techniques par modelisation des sollicitations meteorologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dautin, S.

    1997-04-01

    This work concerns the modeling of thermal phenomena inside buildings for the evaluation of energy exploitation costs of thermal installations and for the modeling of thermal and aeraulic transient phenomena. This thesis comprises 7 chapters dealing with: (1) the thermal phenomena inside buildings and the CLIM2000 calculation code, (2) the ETNA and GENEC experimental cells and their modeling, (3) the techniques of model reduction tested (Marshall`s truncature, Michailesco aggregation method and Moore truncature) with their algorithms and their encoding in the MATRED software, (4) the application of model reduction methods to the GENEC and ETNA cells and to a medium size dual-zone building, (5) the modeling of meteorological influences classically applied to buildings (external temperature and solar flux), (6) the analytical expression of these modeled meteorological influences. The last chapter presents the results of these improved methods on the GENEC and ETNA cells and on a lower inertia building. These new methods are compared to classical methods. (J.S.) 69 refs.

  18. Interaction of Sea Breeze and Deep Convection over the Northeastern Adriatic Coast: An Analysis of Sensitivity Experiments Using a High-Resolution Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehler-Poljak, Gabrijela; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Kvakić, Marko; Šariri, Kristina; Večenaj, Željko

    2017-11-01

    This study investigates the sensitivity of a high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model in the model reproduction of thermally induced local wind (i.e., sea breezes, SB) on the development of deep convection (Cb). The three chosen cases are simulated by the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at three (nested) model domains, whereas the area of the interest is Istria (peninsula in the northeastern Adriatic). The sensitivity tests are accomplished by modifying (1) the model setup, (2) the model topography and (3) the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution. The first set of simulations (over the three 1.5-day periods during summer) is conducted by modifying the model setup, i.e., microphysics and the boundary layer parameterizations. The same events are simulated with the modified topography where the mountain heights in Istria are reduced to 30% of their initial height. The SST distribution has two representations in the model: a constant SST field from the ECMWF skin temperature analysis and a varying SST field, which is provided by hourly geostationary satellite data. A comprehensive set of numerical experiments is statistically analyzed through several different approaches (i.e., the standard statistical measures, the spectral method and the image moment analysis). The overall model evaluation of each model setup revealed certain advantages of one model setup over the others. The numerical tests with the modified topography showed the influence of reducing the mountains heights on the pre-thunderstorm characteristics due to: (1) decrease of sensible heat flux and mid-tropospheric moisture and (2) change of slope-SB wind system. They consequently affect the evolution and dimensions of SBs and the features of the thunderstorm itself: timing, location and intensity (weaker storm). The implementation of the varying SST field in the model have an impact on the characteristics and dynamics of the SB and finally on the accuracy of Cb evolution

  19. Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. von Gunten

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process that depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions at the annual timescale. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological time series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit and compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients linked with a specific drought index are similar for all tested land uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and

  20. Biogeography of seabirds within a high-latitude ecosystem: Use of a data-assimilative ocean model to assess impacts of mesoscale oceanography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santora, Jarrod A.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Ladd, Carol; Renner, Martin; Hunt, George L., Jr.

    2018-02-01

    We assessed the biogeography of seabirds within the Bering Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (LME), a highly productive and extensive continental shelf system that supports important fishing grounds. Our objective was to investigate how physical ocean conditions impact distribution of seabirds along latitudinal gradients. We tested the hypothesis that seabird biogeographic patterns reflect differences in ocean conditions relating to the boundary between northern and southern shelf ecosystems. We used a grid-based approach to develop spatial means (1975-2014) of summertime seabird species' abundance, species' richness, and a multivariate seabird assemblage index to examine species composition. Seabird indices were linked to ocean conditions derived from a data-assimilative oceanographic model to quantify relationships between physics (e.g., temperature, salinity, and current velocity), bathymetry and seabirds along latitudinal gradients. Species assemblages reflected two main sources of variation, a mode for elevated richness and abundance, and a mode related to partitioning of inner/middle shelf species from outer shelf-slope species. Overall, species richness and abundance increased markedly at higher latitudes. We found that latitudinal changes in species assemblages, richness and abundance indicates a major shift around 59-60°N within inner and middle shelf regions, but not in the outer shelf. Within the middle shelf, latitudinal shifts in seabird assemblages strongly related to hydrographic structure, as opposed to the inner and outer shelf waters. As expected, elevated species richness and abundance was associated with major breeding colonies and within important coastal foraging areas. Our study also indicates that seabird observations supported the conclusion that the oceanographic model captured mesoscale variability of ocean conditions important for understanding seabird distributions and represents an important step for evaluating modeling and empirical studies

  1. Assessing the Relationship Between Meteorological Parameters, Air Pollution And Cardiovascular Mortality of Mashhad City Based on Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Hatami

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies conducted in the past two decades indicate that air pollution causes increase in cardiovascular, breathing and chronic bronchitis disorders and even causes cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between meteorological parameters, air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in the city of Mashhad in 2014 by a time series model. Data on mortality from cardiovascular disease, meteorological parameters and air pollution in 2014 were gathered from Paradises organization, meteorology organization and pollutant monitoring center, respectively. Then the relationship between these parameters was analyzed using correlation coefficient, generalized linear regression, time series models and comparison of means. The results of the study showed that the highest rate of cardiovascular mortality related to Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and then PM2.5. So that each unit increase in SO2, NO2 and PM2.5 pollutants adds to the rate of cardiovascular mortality by 22.5, 2.9 and 0.69, respectively. Pressure, wind speed and rainfall have a significant association with mortality. So that each unit decrease in pressure and wind speed, increases the rate of cardiovascular mortality by 2.79 and 15.77, respectively. It was also found that in the case of one-unit increase in rainfall, the possibility of mortality from the mentioned disease goes up by 3.8 units. It was also found that one-year increase of the age increases the mortality caused by these diseases up to 0.57 percent. Furthermore, the highest rate of cardiovascular mortality related to cold periods of the year. Therefore, considering the growing trend of air pollution and its health effects on human health, performing actions and effective solutions is important in the field of controlling and reducing air pollution in Iranian metropolis including Mashhad.

  2. Capitalizing on Citizen Science Data for Validating Models and Generating Hypotheses Describing Meteorological Drivers of Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Paull, S.; Anyamba, A.; Soebiyanto, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation are important drivers of mosquito population dynamics, and a growing set of models have been proposed to characterize these relationships. Validation of these models, and development of broader theories across mosquito species and regions could nonetheless be improved by comparing observations from a global dataset of mosquito larvae with satellite-based measurements of meteorological variables. Citizen science data can be particularly useful for two such aspects of research into the meteorological drivers of mosquito populations: i) Broad-scale validation of mosquito distribution models and ii) Generation of quantitative hypotheses regarding changes to mosquito abundance and phenology across scales. The recently released GLOBE Observer Mosquito Habitat Mapper (GO-MHM) app engages citizen scientists in identifying vector taxa, mapping breeding sites and decommissioning non-natural habitats, and provides a potentially useful new tool for validating mosquito ubiquity projections based on the analysis of remotely sensed environmental data. Our early work with GO-MHM data focuses on two objectives: validating citizen science reports of Aedes aegypti distribution through comparison with accepted scientific data sources, and exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation events and subsequent observations of mosquito larvae. Ultimately the goal is to develop testable hypotheses regarding the shape and character of this relationship between mosquito species and regions.

  3. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.

  4. High-frequency and meso-scale winter sea-ice variability in the Southern Ocean in a high-resolution global ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stössel, Achim; von Storch, Jin-Song; Notz, Dirk; Haak, Helmuth; Gerdes, Rüdiger

    2018-03-01

    This study is on high-frequency temporal variability (HFV) and meso-scale spatial variability (MSV) of winter sea-ice drift in the Southern Ocean simulated with a global high-resolution (0.1°) sea ice-ocean model. Hourly model output is used to distinguish MSV characteristics via patterns of mean kinetic energy (MKE) and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) of ice drift, surface currents, and wind stress, and HFV characteristics via time series of raw variables and correlations. We find that (1) along the ice edge, the MSV of ice drift coincides with that of surface currents, in particular such due to ocean eddies; (2) along the coast, the MKE of ice drift is substantially larger than its TKE and coincides with the MKE of wind stress; (3) in the interior of the ice pack, the TKE of ice drift is larger than its MKE, mostly following the TKE pattern of wind stress; (4) the HFV of ice drift is dominated by weather events, and, in the absence of tidal currents, locally and to a much smaller degree by inertial oscillations; (5) along the ice edge, the curl of the ice drift is highly correlated with that of surface currents, mostly reflecting the impact of ocean eddies. Where ocean eddies occur and the ice is relatively thin, ice velocity is characterized by enhanced relative vorticity, largely matching that of surface currents. Along the ice edge, ocean eddies produce distinct ice filaments, the realism of which is largely confirmed by high-resolution satellite passive-microwave data.

  5. Exploring the Utility of Model-based Meteorology Data for Heat-Related Health Research and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidyanathan, A.; Yip, F.

    2017-12-01

    Context: Studies that have explored the impacts of environmental exposure on human health have mostly relied on data from weather stations, which can be limited in geographic scope. For this assessment, we: (1) evaluated the performance of the meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS) model with measurements from weather stations for public health and specifically for CDC's Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, and (2) conducted a health assessment to explore the relationship between heat exposure and mortality, and examined region-specific differences in heat-mortality (H-M) relationships when using model-based estimates in place of measurements from weather stations.Methods: Meteorological data from the NLDAS Phase 2 model was evaluated against measurements from weather stations. A time-series analysis was conducted, using both station- and model-based data, to generate H-M relationships for counties in the U.S. The county-specific risk information was pooled to characterize regional relationships for both station- and model-based data, which were then compared to identify degrees of overlap and discrepancies between results generated using the two data sources. Results: NLDAS-based heat metrics were in agreement with those generated using weather station data. In general, the H-M relationship tended to be non-linear and varied by region, particularly the heat index value at which the health risks become positively significant. However, there was a high degree of overlap between region-specific H-M relationships generated from weather stations and the NLDAS model.Interpretation: Heat metrics from NLDAS model are available for all counties in the coterminous U.S. from 1979-2015. These data can facilitate health research and surveillance activities exploring health impacts associated with long-term heat exposures at finer geographic scales.Conclusion: High spatiotemporal coverage of environmental health data

  6. Effect of Mesoscale and Multiscale Modeling on the Performance of Kevlar Woven Fabric Subjected to Ballistic Impact: A Numerical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xin; Huang, Zhengxiang; Zu, Xudong; Gu, Xiaohui; Xiao, Qiangqiang

    2013-12-01

    In this study, an optimal finite element model of Kevlar woven fabric that is more computational efficient compared with existing models was developed to simulate ballistic impact onto fabric. Kevlar woven fabric was modeled to yarn level architecture by using the hybrid elements analysis (HEA), which uses solid elements in modeling the yarns at the impact region and uses shell elements in modeling the yarns away from the impact region. Three HEA configurations were constructed, in which the solid element region was set as about one, two, and three times that of the projectile's diameter with impact velocities of 30 m/s (non-perforation case) and 200 m/s (perforation case) to determine the optimal ratio between the solid element region and the shell element region. To further reduce computational time and to maintain the necessary accuracy, three multiscale models were presented also. These multiscale models combine the local region with the yarn level architecture by using the HEA approach and the global region with homogenous level architecture. The effect of the varying ratios of the local and global area on the ballistic performance of fabric was discussed. The deformation and damage mechanisms of fabric were analyzed and compared among numerical models. Simulation results indicate that the multiscale model based on HEA accurately reproduces the baseline results and obviously decreases computational time.

  7. Mesoscale Simulations of Power Compaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomov, I; Fujino, D; Antoun, T; Liu, B

    2009-08-06

    Mesoscale 3D simulations of metal and ceramic powder compaction in shock waves have been performed with an Eulerian hydrocode GEODYN. The approach was validated by simulating shock compaction of porous well-characterized ductile metal using Steinberg material model. Results of the simulations with handbook values for parameters of solid 2024 aluminum have good agreement with experimental compaction curves and wave profiles. Brittle ceramic materials are not so well studied as metals, so material model for ceramic (tungsten carbide) has been fitted to shock compression experiments of non-porous samples and further calibrated to match experimental compaction curves. Direct simulations of gas gun experiments with ceramic powder have been performed and showed good agreement with experimental data. Numerical shock wave profile has same character and thickness as measured with VISAR. Numerical results show reshock states above the single-shock Hugoniot line also observed in experiments. They found that to receive good quantitative agreement with experiment it is essential to perform 3D simulations.

  8. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  9. Estimativa de radiação solar via modelagem atmosférica de mesoescala aplicada à região nordeste do Brasil Estimation of solar radiation by mesoscale atmospheric modeling applied to the northeast Brazil region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otacilio Leandro De Menezes Neto

    2009-09-01

    incoming solar radiation at ground level on Northeast Brazil, using a mesoscale atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System - RAMS, calibrated and validated using the automatic surface stations network data from the Ceará State Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos- FUNCEME. The results showed that the model presents systematic errors, overestimating surface radiation, but, after a proper statistical corrections, using a relationship between the model-predicted cloud fraction and the observed radiation at ground level and the estimated at the top of the atmosphere, a 0.92 correlation value, with a confidence interval of 13,5 W/m², is obtained for monthly data. Using this methodology, an estimated 215 W/m² annual average incoming solar radiation over Ceará is found (maximum in October: 260 W/m².

  10. Meteorological Processors and Accessory Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surface and upper air data, provided by NWS, are important inputs for air quality models. Before these data are used in some of the EPA dispersion models, meteorological processors are used to manipulate the data.

  11. [A preliminary study on the effects of meteorological factors on intracerebral hemorrhage death using the BP neural network model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Han-lu; Lan, Li; Qiao, Dong-ju; Zhao, Na; Yang, Jia-qi; Shao, Bing; Jiao, Zhe; Li, Hang; Wang, Bin-you

    2012-09-01

    Using the Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network Model to discover the relationship between meteorological factors and mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage, to provide evidence for developing an intracerebral hemorrhage prevention and control program, in Harbin. Based on the characteristics of BP neural network, a neural network Toolbox of MATLAB 7.0 software was used to build Meteorological data of 2007 - 2009 with intracerebral hemorrhage mortality to predict the effect of BP neural network model, and to compare with the traditional multivariate linear regression model. Datas from the multivariate linear regression indicated that the cerebral hemorrhage death mortality had a negative correlation with maximum temperature and minimum humidity while having a positive correlation with the average relative humidity and the hours of sunshine. The linear correlation coefficient of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality was 0.7854, with mean absolute percentage (MAPE) as 0.21, mean square error (MSE) as 0.22, mean absolute error (MAE) as 0.19. The accuracy of forecasting was 81.31% with an average error rate as 0.19. The Fitting results of BP neural network model showed that non-linear correlation coefficient of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality was 0.7967, with MAPE as 0.19, MSE as 0.21, MAE as 0.18. The forecasting accuracy was 82.53% with the average error rate as 0.17. The BP neural network model showed a higher forecasting accuracy when compared to the multiple linear regression model on intracerebral hemorrhage mortality, using the data of 2010's.

  12. A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Petters

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP, bulk optical depth (τ and cloud radiative forcing (CRF. We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd. In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase

  13. Meteorological conditions associated to high sublimation amounts in semiarid high-elevation Andes decrease the performance of empirical melt models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alvaro; Pellicciotti, Francesca; MacDonell, Shelley; McPhee, James; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Empirical melt (EM) models are often preferred to surface energy balance (SEB) models to calculate melt amounts of snow and ice in hydrological modelling of high-elevation catchments. The most common reasons to support this decision are that, in comparison to SEB models, EM models require lower levels of meteorological data, complexity and computational costs. However, EM models assume that melt can be characterized by means of a few index variables only, and their results strongly depend on the transferability in space and time of the calibrated empirical parameters. In addition, they are intrinsically limited in accounting for specific process components, the complexity of which cannot be easily reconciled with the empirical nature of the model. As an example of an EM model, in this study we use the Enhanced Temperature Index (ETI) model, which calculates melt amounts using air temperature and the shortwave radiation balance as index variables. We evaluate the performance of the ETI model on dry high-elevation sites where sublimation amounts - that are not explicitly accounted for the EM model - represent a relevant percentage of total ablation (1.1 to 8.7%). We analyse a data set of four Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), which were collected during the ablation season 2013-14, at elevations between 3466 and 4775 m asl, on the glaciers El Tapado, San Francisco, Bello and El Yeso, which are located in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. We complement our analysis using data from past studies in Juncal Norte Glacier (Chile) and Haut Glacier d'Arolla (Switzerland), during the ablation seasons 2008-09 and 2006, respectively. We use the results of a SEB model, applied to each study site, along the entire season, to calibrate the ETI model. The ETI model was not designed to calculate sublimation amounts, however, results show that their ability is low also to simulate melt amounts at sites where sublimation represents larger percentages of total ablation. In fact, we

  14. NORSEWIND – Mesoscale model derived Wind Atlases for the Irish Sea, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berge, Erik; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Bredesen, Rolv Erlend

    2013-01-01

    estimate a random uncertainty of ±4.0 % and a bias of -6.4 % which is higher than for the average annual wind speed. It is emphasized that the amount of validation data is small and considerable spatial variability of the uncertainty may be expected. For example, near coastal zones model errors could...

  15. Green River air quality model development: meteorological and tracer data, July/August 1982 field study in Brush Valley, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, C.D.; Lee, R.N.; Orgill, M.M.; Zak, B.D.

    1984-06-01

    Meteorological and atmospheric tracer studies were conducted during a 3-week period in July and August of 1982 in the Brush Creek Valley of northwestern Colorado. The objective of the field experiments was to obtain data to evaluate a model, called VALMET, developed at PNL to predict dispersion of air pollutants released from an elevated stack located within a deep mountain valley in the post-sunrise temperature inversion breakup period. Three tracer experiments were conducted in the valley during the 2-week period. In these experiments, sulfur hexafluoride (SF/sub 6/) was released from a height of approximately 100 m, beginning before sunrise and continuing until the nocturnal down-valley winds reversed several hours after sunrise. Dispersion of the sulfur hexafluoride after release was evaluated by measuring SF/sub 6/ concentrations in ambient air samples taken from sampling devices operated within the valley up to about 8 km down valley from the source. An instrumented research aircraft was also used to measure concentrations in and above the valley. Tracer samples were collected using a network of radio-controlled bag sampling stations, two manually operated gas chromatographs, a continuous SF/sub 6/ monitor, and a vertical SF/sub 6/ profiler. In addition, basic meteorological data were collected during the tracer experiments. Frequent profiles of vertical wind and temperature structure were obtained with tethered balloons operated at the release site and at a site 7.7 km down the valley from the release site. 10 references, 63 figures, 50 tables.

  16. Seasonal Multifactor Modelling of Weighted-Mean Temperature for Ground-Based GNSS Meteorology in Hunan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, radiosonde observations during the period of 2012-2013 from three stations in the Hunan region, China, were used to establish regional Tm models (RTMs that are a fitting function of multiple meteorological factors (Ts, Es, and Ps. One-factor, two-factor, and three-factor RTMs were assessed by comparing their Tm against the radiosonde-derived Tm (as the truth during the period of 2013-2014. Statistical results showed that the bias and RMS of the one-factor RTM, in comparison to the BTM result, were reduced by 88% and 28%, respectively. The two-factor and three-factor RTMs showed similar accuracy and both outperformed the one-factor RTM, with an improvement of 7% in RMS. The bias and RMS of all the four seasonal two-factor RTMs were smaller than the yearly two-factor RTM, with the improvements of 3%, 10%, 2%, and 3% in RMS. The improvement of the conversion factors in mean bias and RMS resulting from the seasonal two-factor RTM is 92% and 31%. The bias and RMS of the PWV resulting from the seasonal two-factor RTM are improved by 37% and 12%, respectively. Therefore, the seasonal two-factor RTMs are recommended for the research and applications of GNSS meteorology in the Hunan region, China.

  17. Development of satellite green vegetation fraction time series for use in mesoscale modeling: application to the European heat wave 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Joakim Refslund; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    A method is presented for development of satellite green vegetation fraction (GVF) time series for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF data is in the WRF model used to describe the temporal evolution of many land surface parameters, in addition to the evolution...... of vegetation. Several high-resolution GVF products, derived from high-quality satellite retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images, were produced and their performance was evaluated in long-term WRF simulations. The atmospheric conditions during the 2006 heat wave year over Europe...... were simulated since significant interannual variability in vegetation seasonality was found. Such interannual variability is expected to increase in the coming decades due to climatic changes. The simulation using a quadratic normalized difference vegetation index to GVF relationship resulted...

  18. Modelling the hydrologic response of a mesoscale Andean watershed to changes in land use patterns for environmental planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stehr, A.; Aguayo, M.; Link, O.; Parra, O.; Romero, F.; Alcayaga, H.

    2010-10-01

    A multidisciplinary approach is followed for analysis of the effect of changes in land use patterns on the hydrologic response of the Vergara watershed (4340 km2) located in central Chile. Probable future land use scenarios were generated using heuristic rules and logistic regression models, in order to identify and represent the main pressure on the watershed, namely forestation of extensive areas used for agriculture with rapid growing exotic species. The hydrologic response of the watershed was computed with a physically based distributed precipitation-runoff model, which was calibrated and validated for the current period. Results show that mean annual discharge increase with agricultural land use and diminish with introduced forest coverage. Thus, forestation of areas with introduced species like Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus globulus might be regulated in order to protect the water resources of the watershed.

  19. Use of ARM observations and numerical models to determine radiative and latent heating profiles of mesoscale convective systems for general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Houze, Robert, A., Jr.; Zeng, Xiping

    2013-03-14

    This three-year project, in cooperation with Professor Bob Houze at University of Washington, has been successfully finished as planned. Both ARM (the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program) data and cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations were used to identify the water budgets of clouds observed in two international field campaigns. The research results achieved shed light on several key processes of clouds in climate change (or general circulation models), which are summarized below. 1. Revealed the effect of mineral dust on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) Two international field campaigns near a desert and a tropical coast provided unique data to drive and evaluate CRM simulations, which are TWP-ICE (the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment) and AMMA (the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis). Studies of the two campaign data were contrasted, revealing that much mineral dust can bring about large MCSs via ice nucleation and clouds. This result was reported as a PI presentation in the 3rd ASR Science Team meeting held in Arlington, Virginia in March 2012. A paper on the studies was published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (Zeng et al. 2013). 2. Identified the effect of convective downdrafts on ice crystal concentration Using the large-scale forcing data from TWP-ICE, ARM-SGP (the Southern Great Plains) and other field campaigns, Goddard CRM simulations were carried out in comparison with radar and satellite observations. The comparison between model and observations revealed that convective downdrafts could increase ice crystal concentration by up to three or four orders, which is a key to quantitatively represent the indirect effects of ice nuclei, a kind of aerosol, on clouds and radiation in the Tropics. This result was published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (Zeng et al. 2011) and summarized in the DOE/ASR Research Highlights Summaries (see http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/RMjY5/view). 3. Used radar

  20. Sensitivity Studies on the Influence of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Development Using WRF Mesoscale Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, G.; Eidhammer, T.; Rasmussen, R.

    2011-12-01

    Using the WRF model in simulations of shallow and deep precipitating cloud systems, we investigated the sensitivity to aerosols initiating as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. A global climatological dataset of sulfates, sea salts, and dust was used as input for a control experiment. Sensitivity experiments with significantly more polluted conditions were conducted to analyze the resulting impacts to cloud and precipitation formation. Simulations were performed using the WRF model with explicit treatment of aerosols added to the Thompson et al (2008) bulk microphysics scheme. The modified scheme achieves droplet formation using pre-tabulated CCN activation tables provided by a parcel model. The ice nucleation is parameterized as a function of dust aerosols as well as homogeneous freezing of deliquesced aerosols. The basic processes of aerosol activation and removal by wet scavenging are considered, but aerosol characteristic size or hygroscopicity does not change due to evaporating droplets. In other words, aerosol processing was ignored. Unique aspects of this study include the usage of one to four kilometer grid spacings and the direct parameterization of ice nucleation from aerosols rather than typical temperature and/or supersaturation relationships alone. Initial results from simulations of a deep winter cloud system and its interaction with significant orography show contrasting sensitivities in regions of warm rain versus mixed liquid and ice conditions. The classical view of higher precipitation amounts in relatively clean maritime clouds with fewer but larger droplets is confirmed for regions dominated by the warm-rain process. However, due to complex interactions with the ice phase and snow riming, the simulations revealed the reverse situation in high terrain areas dominated by snow reaching the surface. Results of other cloud systems will be summarized at the conference.

  1. Incorporating expert knowledge in calibrating a complex hydrological conceptual model: A FLEX-TOPO case study for a central European meso-scale catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gao, Hongkai; Euser, Tanja; Savenije, Huub

    2013-04-01

    Catchments are open systems meaning that it is impossible to find out the exact boundary conditions of the real system spatially and temporarily. Therefore models are essential tools in capturing system behavior spatially and extrapolating it temporarily for prediction. In recent years conceptual models have been in the center of attention rather than so called physically based models which are often over-parameterized and encounter difficulties for up-scaling of small scale processes. Conceptual models however are heavily dependent on calibration as one or more of their parameters can typically not be physically measured at the catchment scale. Parallel to the evolution of modeling attempts, our understanding of rainfall/runoff models increased due to improvements of measurement techniques. Heavily instrumented catchments have been studied, and measured system responses have been modeled for testing a priori hypothesis of system function. Although our understanding of how catchments may work has increased the lessons learned from the case specific studies remain locally valid and are not widely used in model calibration and development. In this study we try to constrain parameters of a complex conceptual model built on landscape units classified according to their hydrological functions, based on our logical considerations and general lessons from previous studies across the globe for the Luxembourgish meso-scale Wark catchment. The classified landscapes were used to assign different model structures to the individual hydrological response units. As an example deep percolation was defined as dominant process for plateaus, while rapid subsurface flow as dominant process for hillslope, and saturation overland flow as dominant process for wetlands. The modeled runoffs from each hydrological unit were combined in a parallel set-up to proportionally contribute to the total catchment runoff. The hydrological units are, in addition, linked by a common groundwater

  2. Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Karen; Keller, Christoph A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Molod, Andrea M.; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Long, Michael S.

    2018-01-01

    Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn-210Pb-7Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25° × 0.3125° (≈ 25 km) and 2° × 2.5° (≈ 200 km) resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈ 25 km) and c48 (≈ 200 km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 h and remapped to 0.25° × 0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25° × 0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20 % relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3 h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25° × 0.3125° to 2° × 2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40 % in surface air relative to the online c360 simulations and underestimated by up to 40 % in the upper troposphere, while the

  3. Predictions of dispersion and deposition of fallout from nuclear testing using the NOAA-HYSPLIT meteorological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, Brian E; Beck, Harold L; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L

    2010-08-01

    The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly where little historical fallout monitoring data are available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particle sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that, when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

  4. Assessing Climatic Impacts due to Land Use Change over Southeast Asian Maritime Continent base on Mesoscale Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, N.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing urbanization, deforestation, and agriculture, land use change over Southeast Asia has dramatically risen during the last decades. Large areas of peat swamp forests over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent region (10°S~20°N and 90°E~135°E) have been cleared for agricultural purposes. The Center for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived land cover classification data show that changes in land use are dominated by conversion of peat swamp forests to oil palm plantation, open lowland or lowland mosaic categories. Nested grid simulations based on Weather Research Forecasting Version 3.6 modelling system (WRFV3.6) over the central region of the Sarawak coast are used to investigate the climatic impacts of land use change over Maritime Continent. Numerical simulations were conducted for August of 2009 for satellite derived land cover scenarios for years 2000 and 2010. The variations in cloud formation, precipitation, and regional radiative and non-radiative parameters on climate results from land use change have been assessed based on numerical simulation results. Modelling studies demonstrate that land use change such as extensive deforestation processes can produce a negative radiative forcing due to the surface albedo increase and evapotranspiration decrease, while also largely caused reduced rainfall and cloud formation, and enhanced shortwave radiative forcing and temperature over the study area. Land use and land cover changes, similar to the domain in this study, has also occurred over other regions in Southeast Asia including Indonesia and could also impact cloud and precipitation formation in these regions.

  5. Incorporating expert knowledge in a complex hydrological conceptual model: A FLEX-TOPO case study for a central European meso-scale catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharari, S.; Hrachowitz, M.; Fenicia, F.; Gao, H.; Savenije, H.

    2013-12-01

    Models are essential tools in capturing system behavior, catchments, spatially and extrapolating it temporarily for prediction. In recent years conceptual models have been in the center of attention rather than so called physically based models which are often over-parameterized and encounter difficulties for up-scaling of small scale processes. Conceptual models however are heavily dependent on calibration as one or more of their parameters can typically not be physically measured at the catchment scale. In this study we try to constrain parameters of a complex conceptual model built on landscape units classified according to their hydrological functions, based on our logical considerations and general lessons from previous studies across the globe for the Luxembourgish meso-scale Wark catchment. The classified landscapes were used to assign different model structures to the individual hydrological response units. As an example deep percolation was defined as dominant process for plateaus, while rapid subsurface flow as dominant process for hillslope, and saturation overland flow as dominant process for wetlands. The modeled runoffs from each hydrological unit were combined in a parallel set-up to proportionally contribute to the total catchment runoff. The hydrological units are, in addition, linked by a common groundwater reservoir. The parallel hydrological units, although increasing the number of parameters, have the benefit of separate calibration. By stepwise calibration different mechanisms can be calibrated at periods when these mechanisms are active in isolation. For instance, the groundwater module is calibrated during dry season recession and the wetland module during isolated summer storms when the hillslopes are below the activation threshold. Moreover, one can constrain parameters by realistic conditions. As an example, the lag time of wetlands is likely to be shorter than the lag time of water traveling to the outlet from a plateau. Moreover, due to

  6. Airline meteorological requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, C. L.; Pappas, J.

    1985-01-01

    A brief review of airline meteorological/flight planning is presented. The effects of variations in meteorological parameters upon flight and operational costs are reviewed. Flight path planning through the use of meteorological information is briefly discussed.

  7. Mesoscale Influences of Wind Farms Throughout a Diurnal Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitch, A. C.; Lundquist, J. K.; Olson, J. B.

    2012-12-01

    Few observations are available to give insight into the interaction between large wind farms and the boundary layer. As wind farm deployment increases, questions are arising on the potential impact on meteorology within and downwind of large wind farms. While large-eddy simulation can provide insight into the detailed interaction between individual turbines and the boundary layer, to date it has been too computationally expensive to simulate wind farms with large numbers of turbines and the resulting wake far downstream. Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models provide the opportunity to investigate the flow in and around large wind farms as a whole, and the resulting impact on meteorology. To this end, we have implemented a wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which represents wind turbines by imposing a momentum sink on the mean flow; converting kinetic energy into electricity and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). The parameterization improves upon previous models, basing the atmospheric drag of turbines on the thrust coefficient of a modern commercial turbine. In addition, the source of TKE varies with wind speed, reflecting the amount of energy extracted from the atmosphere by the turbines that does not produce electrical energy. We simulate a wind farm covering 10x10 km over land, consisting of 100 turbines each of nominal power output of 5 MW. Results will be presented showing how the wake structure varies dramatically over a diurnal cycle characteristic of a region in the Great Plains of the US, where wind farm deployment is planned. At night, a low-level jet forms within the rotor area, which is completely eliminated by energy extraction within the wind farm. The deep stable layer and lack of higher momentum air aloft at this time maximises the wind deficit and the length of the wake. The presentation will discuss the maximum reduction of wind speed within and downwind from the farm, and the wake e

  8. Development of the Next Generation Air Quality Modeling System (20th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A next generation air quality modeling system is being developed at the U.S. EPA to enable modeling of air quality from global to regional to (eventually) local scales. We envision that the system will have three configurations: 1. Global meteorology with seamless mesh refinemen...

  9. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  10. Statistical modeling of phenological phases in Poland based on coupling satellite derived products and gridded meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing and predicting selected phenological phases. This issue is of particular importance in Poland where national-wide phenological monitoring was abandoned in the middle of 1990s and the reactivated network was established in 2006. Authors decided to evaluate possibilities of using a wide-range of statistical modeling techniques to create synthetic archive dataset. Additionally, a robust tool for predicting the most distinguishable phenophases using only free of charge data as predictors was created. Study period covers the years 2007-2014 and contains only quality-controlled dataset of 10 species and 14 phenophases. Phenological data used in this study originates from the manual observations network run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Three kind of data sources were used as predictors: (i) satellite derived products, (ii) preprocessed gridded meteorological data, and (iii) spatial properties (longitude, latitude, altitude) of the monitoring site. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 vegetation products were used for detecting onset dates of particular phenophases. Following indices were used: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR). Additionally, Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) products were chosen to detect occurrence of snow cover. Due to highly noisy data, authors decided to take into account pixel reliability information. Besides satellite derived products (NDVI, EVI, FPAR, LAI, Snow cover), a wide group of observational data and agrometeorological indices derived from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) were used as a potential predictors: cumulative growing degree days (GDD), cumulative growing precipitation days (GPD

  11. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  12. Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... days in the month of August 1997 and one week in September 1997 during three monsoon depressions and one cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The model results are compared with observations. The study shows that the model can capture mesoscale convective organization associated with monsoon depression.

  13. Influence of Meteorological Regimes on Cloud Microphysics Over Ross Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glennon, C.; Wang, S. H.; Scott, R. C.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lubin, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic provides a sharp contrast in cloud microphysics from the high Arctic, due to orographic lifting and resulting strong vertical motions induced by mountain ranges and other varying terrain on several spatial scales. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) deployed advanced cloud remote sensing equipment to Ross Island, Antarctica, from December 2015 until January 2016. This equipment included scanning and zenith radars operating in the Ka and X bands, a high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL), and a polarized micropulse lidar (MPL). A major AWARE objective is to provide state-of-the-art data for improving cloud microphysical parameterizations in climate models. To further this objective we have organized and classified the local Ross Island meteorology into distinct regimes using k-means clustering on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We identify synoptic categories producing unique regimes of cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties over Ross Island. Each day of observations can then be associated with a specific meteorological regime, thus assisting modelers with identifying case studies. High-resolution (1 km) weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) are sorted into these categories. AMPS-simulated anomalies of cloud fraction, near-surface air temperature, and vertical velocity at 500-mb are composited and compared with ground-based radar and lidar-derived cloud properties to identify mesoscale meteorological processes driving Antarctic cloud formation. Synoptic lows over the Ross and Amundsen Seas drive anomalously warm conditions at Ross Island by injecting marine air masses inland over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This results in ice and mixed-phase orographic cloud systems arriving at Ross Island from the south to southeast along the Transantarctic Mountains. In contrast, blocking over the Amundsen Sea region brings classical liquid-dominated mixed-phase and

  14. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  15. Impacts of weighting climate models for hydro-meteorological climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Caya, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Weighting climate models is controversial in climate change impact studies using an ensemble of climate simulations from different climate models. In climate science, there is a general consensus that all climate models should be considered as having equal performance or in other words that all projections are equiprobable. On the other hand, in the impacts and adaptation community, many believe that climate models should be weighted based on their ability to better represent various metrics over a reference period. The debate appears to be partly philosophical in nature as few studies have investigated the impact of using weights in projecting future climate changes. The present study focuses on the impact of assigning weights to climate models for hydrological climate change studies. Five methods are used to determine weights on an ensemble of 28 global climate models (GCMs) adapted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Using a hydrological model, streamflows are computed over a reference (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods, with and without post-processing climate model outputs. The impacts of using different weighting schemes for GCM simulations are then analyzed in terms of ensemble mean and uncertainty. The results show that weighting GCMs has a limited impact on both projected future climate in term of precipitation and temperature changes and hydrology in terms of nine different streamflow criteria. These results apply to both raw and post-processed GCM model outputs, thus supporting the view that climate models should be considered equiprobable.

  16. Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnavsky, E.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

  17. Development and testing of a high-resolution model for tropospheric sulfate driven by observation-derived meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benkovitz, C.M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). Environmental Chemistry Div.

    1994-05-01

    A high-resolution three-dimensional Eulerian transport and transformation model has been developed to simulate concentrations of tropospheric sulfate for specific times and locations; it was applied over the North Atlantic and adjacent continental regions during October and November, 1986. The model represents emissions of anthropogenic SO{sub 2} and sulfate and of biogenic sulfur species, horizontal and vertical transport, gas-phase oxidation of SO{sub 2} and dimethylsulfide, aqueous-phase oxidation of SO{sub 2}, and wet and dry deposition of SO{sub 2}, sulfate, and methanesulfonic acid (MSA). The meteorological driver is the 6-hour output from the forecast model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Calculated sulfate concentrations and column burdens, examined in detail for October 15 and October 22 at 6Z, are related to existing weather patterns. These results exhibit rich temporal and spatial structure; the characteristic (1/e) temporal autocorrelation time for the sulfate column burdens over the central North Atlantic averages 20 hours; 95% of the values were 25 hours or less. The characteristic distance of spatial autocorrelation over this region depends on direction and averages 1,600 km; with 10{sup th} percentile value of 400 km and 90{sup th} percentile value of 1,700 km. Daily average model sulfate concentrations at the lowest vertical accurately represent the spatial variability, temporal episodicity, and absolute magnitudes of surface concentrations measured by monitoring stations in Europe, Canada and Barbados.

  18. Assimilation of ocean sea-surface height observations of mesoscale eddies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Jeffrey B.; Grooms, Ian

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale eddies are one of the dominant sources of variability in the world's oceans. With eddy-resolving global ocean models, it becomes important to assimilate observations of mesoscale eddies to correctly represent the state of the mesoscale. Here, we investigate strategies for assimilating a reduced number of sea-surface height observations by focusing on the coherent mesoscale eddies. The study is carried out in an idealized perfect-model framework using two-layer forced quasigeostrophic dynamics, which captures the dominant dynamics of ocean mesoscale eddies. We study errors in state-estimation as well as error growth in forecasts and find that as fewer observations are assimilated, assimilating at vortex locations results in reduced state estimation and forecast errors.

  19. Combining meteorological radar and network of rain gauges data for space–time model development

    OpenAIRE

    Pastoriza, Vicente; Núñez Fernández, Adolfo; Machado, Fernando; Mariño, Perfecto; Pérez Fontán, Fernando; Fiebig, Uwe-Carsten

    2009-01-01

    Technological developments and the trend to go higher and higher in frequency give rise to the need for true space–time rain field models for testing the dynamics of fade countermeasures. There are many models that capture the spatial correlation of rain fields. Worth mentioning are those models based on cell ensembles. However, the rain rate fields created in this way need the introduction of the time variable to reproduce their dynamics. In this paper, we have concentrated on ad...

  20. Modeling SF{sub 6} plume dispersion in complex terrain and meteorology with a limited data set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schalk, W.W. III

    1996-10-01

    Early actions of emergency responders during hazardous material releases are intended to assess contamination and potential public exposure. As measurements are collected, an integration of model calculations and measurements can assist to better understand the situation. This study applied a high resolution version of the operational 3-D numerical models used by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to a limited meteorological and tracer data set to assist in the interpretation of the dispersion pattern on a 140 km scale. The data set was collected from a tracer release during the morning surface inversion and transition period in the complex terrain of the Snake River Plain near Idaho Falls, Idaho in November 1993 by the United States Air Force. Sensitivity studies were conducted to determine model input parameters that best represented the study environment. These studies showed that mixing and boundary layer heights, atmospheric stability, and rawinsonde data are the most important model input parameters affecting wind field generation and tracer dispersion. Numerical models and limited measurement data were used to interpret dispersion patterns through the use of data analysis, model input determination, and sensitivity studies. Comparison of the best-estimate calculation to measurement data showed that model results compared well with the aircraft data, but had moderate success with the few surface measurements taken. The moderate success of the surface measurement comparison, may be due to limited downward mixing of the tracer as a result of the model resolution determined by the domain size selected to study the overall plume dispersion. 8 refs., 40 figs., 7 tabs.

  1. Mesoscale Eddies in the Solomon Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova, H. G.; Kessler, W. S.; McWilliams, J. C.; Molemaker, M. J.

    2011-12-01

    Water mass transformation in the strong equatorward flows through the Solomon Sea influences the properties of the Equatorial Undercurrent and subsequent cold tongue upwelling. High eddy activity in the interior Solomon Sea seen in altimetric sea surface height (SSH) and in several models may provide a mechanism for these transformations. We investigate these effects using a mesoscale (4-km resolution) sigma-coordinate (ROMS) model of the Solomon Sea nested in a basin solution, forced by a repeating seasonal cycle, and evaluated against observational data. The model generates a vigorous upper layer eddy field; some of these are apparently shed as the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent threads through the complex topography of the region, others are independent of the strong western boundary current. We diagnose the scales and vertical structure of the eddies in different parts of the Solomon Sea to illuminate their generation processes and propagation characteristics, and compare these to observed eddy statistics. Hypotheses tested are that the Solomon Sea mesoscale eddies are generated locally by baroclinic instability, that the eddies are shed as the South Equatorial Current passes around and through the Solomon Island chain, that eddies are generated by the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent, or that eddies occurring outside of the Solomon Sea propagate into the Solomon Sea. These different mechanisms have different implications for the resulting mixing and property fluxes. They also provide different interpretations for SSH signals observed from satellites (e.g., that will be observed by the upcoming SWOT satellite).

  2. Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Eymard

    Full Text Available The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period. Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies, and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m-2. This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The

  3. Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Eymard

    1996-09-01

    Full Text Available The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period. Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies, and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m-2. This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical

  4. A Method for Evaluation of Model-Generated Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    precipitable water vapor (PWV) forecasts for use by the Southern European Observatory, it presented Approved for public release; distribution...Language NOHRSC National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center NWP numerical weather prediction PWV Precipitable Water Vapor RAOB radiosonde...Model is used for longwave and the Dudhia scheme for shortwave. The Noah land surface model is used to represent land surface processes. The pre

  5. Intense mesoscale variability in the Sardinia Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Aniello; Borrione, Ines; Falchetti, Silvia; Knoll, Michaela; Fiekas, Heinz-Volker; Heywood, Karen; Oddo, Paolo; Onken, Reiner

    2015-04-01

    From the 6 to 25 June 2014, the REP14-MED sea trial was conducted by CMRE, supported by 20 partners from six different nations. The at-sea activities were carried out onboard the research vessels Alliance (NATO) and Planet (German Ministry of Defense), comprising a marine area of about 110 x 110 km2 to the west of the Sardinian coast. More than 300 CTD casts typically spaced at 10 km were collected; both ships continuously recorded vertical profiles of currents by means of their ADCPs, and a ScanFish® and a CTD chain were towed for almost three days by Alliance and Planet, respectively, following parallel routes. Twelve gliders from different manufacturers (Slocum, SeaGliderTM and SeaExplorer) were continuously sampling the study area following zonal tracks spaced at 10 km. In addition, six moorings, 17 surface drifters and one ARVOR float were deployed. From a first analysis of the observations, several mesoscale features were identified in the survey area, in particular: (i) a warm-core anticyclonic eddy in the southern part of the domain, about 50 km in diameter and with the strongest signal at about 50-m depth (ii) another warm-core anticyclonic eddy of comparable dimensions in the central part of the domain, but extending to greater depth than the former one, and (iii) a small (less than 15 km in diameter) cold-core cyclonic eddy of Winter Intermediate Water in the depth range between 170 m and 370 m. All three eddies showed intensified currents, up to 50 cm s-1. The huge high-resolution observational data set and the variety of observation techniques enabled the mesoscale features and their variability to be tracked for almost three weeks. In order to obtain a deeper understanding of the mesoscale dynamic behaviour and their interactions, assimilation studies with an ocean circulation model are underway.

  6. Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

    2017-08-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

  7. Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling of smoke direct radiative effect to the emission inventory: a case study in northern sub-Saharan African region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Feng; Wang, Jun; Yang, Zhifeng; Ge, Cui; Ichoku, Charles; Hyer, Edward J; Da Silva, Arlindo; Su, Shenjian; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Kondragunta, Shobha; Kaiser, Johannes W; Wiedinmyer, Christine

    2014-01-01

    An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15°W–42°E, 13°S–17°N) and monthly averages of column PM 2.5 loading, surface PM 2.5 concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA. (paper)

  8. Combination of Deterministic and Probabilistic Meteorological Models to enhance Wind Farm Power Forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremen, Lueder von

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale wind farms will play an important role in the future worldwide energy supply. However, with increasing wind power penetration all stakeholders on the electricity market will ask for more skilful wind power predictions regarding save grid integration and to increase the economic value of wind power. A Neural Network is used to calculate Model Output Statistics (MOS) for each individual forecast model (ECMWF and HIRLAM) and to model the aggregated power curve of the Middelgrunden offshore wind farm. We showed that the combination of two NWP models clearly outperforms the better single model. The normalized day-ahead RMSE forecast error for Middelgrunden can be reduced by 1% compared to single ECMWF. This is a relative improvement of 6%. For lead times >24h it is worthwhile to use a more sophisticated model combination approach than simple linear weighting. The investigated principle component regression is able to extract the uncorrelated information from two NWP forecasts. The spread of Ensemble Predictions is related to the skill of wind power forecasts. Simple contingency diagrams show that low spread corresponds is more often related to low forecast errors and high spread to large forecast errors

  9. Modeling detailed hydro-meteorological surfaces and runoff response in large diverse watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.; Kienzle, S.W.; MacDonald, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in diverse environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydroclimate dataset for diverse watersheds using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil water storage and runoff from the basin. Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. In further work we will apply spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change for watersheds in Canada and beyond. (author)

  10. A scale model study of the effects of meteorological, soil, and house parameters on soil gas pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.J.

    1990-01-01

    To assess the contribution of various environmental parameters to the entry of Rn into basements, it is advantageous to simplify and control the important variables present in the field situation. A scale model system, simulating a house in soil, has been constructed to investigate the effect of meteorological parameters and house and soil characteristics on soil gas flow around houses. The house walls and soil are of variable permeability. Wind is simulated by applying a static pressure distribution to the soil surface. The effect of temperature differences and appliances is simulated by depressurizing the model house. Soil gas pressures at various locations around the house are measured under different conditions. The results show that the ratio of wall to soil permeability is the determining factor in soil gas flow patterns. For a wind of 8.94 m s-1 (20 mph), the horizontal pressure gradients are about 99 Pa m-1 in the model when the wall is at least as permeable as the soil. This corresponds to 3.3 Pa m-1 in the field. When the soil is two or more orders of magnitude more permeable than the wall, the gradient is about 19.8 Pa m-1 in the model, or 0.66 Pa m-1 in the field. There is a logarithmic dependence of pressure gradient on the ratio of wall to soil permeability in the range -2 less than log (kw/ks) less than 0. Conversely, it takes a large temperature difference of 27 degrees C to cause a 99 Pa m-1 horizontal pressure gradient in model systems with wall permeability greater than soil permeability. The effects of changes in the model system on soil gas flow patterns are investigated for the cases of lowered soil surface permeability, partial surface capping, and presence of a subfloor gravel bed. Partial surface capping, as would occur with driveways and patios, was found to have a minor effect on soil gas pressures

  11. A comparison of operational Lagrangian particle and adaptive puff models for plume dispersion forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souto, M. J.; Souto, J. A.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Casares, J. J.; Bermúdez, J. L.

    Transport and dispersion of pollutants in the lower atmosphere are predicted by using both a Lagrangian particle model (LPM) and an adaptive puff model (APM2) coupled to the same mesoscale meteorological prediction model PMETEO. LPM and APM2 apply the same numerical solutions for plu