WorldWideScience

Sample records for mesoscale meteorological models

  1. Mesoscale meteorological model based on radioactive explosion cloud simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Yi; Zhang Yan; Ying Chuntong

    2008-01-01

    In order to simulate nuclear explosion and dirty bomb radioactive cloud movement and concentration distribution, mesoscale meteorological model RAMS was used. Particles-size, size-active distribution and gravitational fallout in the cloud were considered. The results show that the model can simulate the 'mushroom' clouds of explosion. Three-dimension fluid field and radioactive concentration field were received. (authors)

  2. An intercomparison of several diagnostic meteorological processors used in mesoscale air quality modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimont, J.C. [National Park Service, Lakewood, CO (United States); Scire, J.S. [Sigma Research Corp., Concord, MA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    A major component, and area of uncertainty, in mesoscale air quality modeling, is the specification of the meteorological fields which affect the transport and dispersion of pollutants. Various options are available for estimating the wind and mixing depth fields over a mesoscale domain. Estimates of the wind field can be obtained from spatial and temporal interpolation of available observations or from diagnostic meteorological models, which estimate a meteorological field from available data and adjust those fields based on parameterizations of physical processes. A major weakness of these processors is their dependence on spatially and temporally sparse input data, particularly upper air data. These problems are exacerbated in regions of complex terrain and along the shorelines of large bodies of water. Similarly, the estimation of mixing depth is also reliant upon sparse observations and the parameterization of the convective and mechanical processes. The meteorological processors examined in this analysis were developed to drive different Lagrangian puff models. This paper describes the algorithms these processors use to estimate the wind fields and mixing depth fields.

  3. THE APPLICATION OF AN EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHM TO THE OPTIMIZATION OF A MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; O' Steen, L.

    2008-02-11

    We show that a simple evolutionary algorithm can optimize a set of mesoscale atmospheric model parameters with respect to agreement between the mesoscale simulation and a limited set of synthetic observations. This is illustrated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). A set of 23 RAMS parameters is optimized by minimizing a cost function based on the root mean square (rms) error between the RAMS simulation and synthetic data (observations derived from a separate RAMS simulation). We find that the optimization can be efficient with relatively modest computer resources, thus operational implementation is possible. The optimization efficiency, however, is found to depend strongly on the procedure used to perturb the 'child' parameters relative to their 'parents' within the evolutionary algorithm. In addition, the meteorological variables included in the rms error and their weighting are found to be an important factor with respect to finding the global optimum.

  4. Description of the University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, D. R.; Austin, G. L.

    2005-08-01

    The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) is a numerical weather prediction model of the Martian atmosphere that has been developed through the conversion of the Penn State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5). The global aspect of this model is self consistent, overlapping, and forms a continuous domain around the entire planet, removing the need to provide boundary conditions other than at initialisation, yielding independence from the constraint of a Mars general circulation model. The brief overview of the model will be given, outlining the key physical processes and setup of the model. Comparison between data collected from Mars Pathfinder during its 1997 mission and simulated conditions using GM4 have been performed. Diurnal temperature variation as predicted by the model shows very good correspondence with the surface truth data, to within 5 K for the majority of the diurnal cycle. Mars Viking Data is also compared with the model, with good agreement. As a further means of validation for the model, various seasonal comparisons of surface and vertical atmospheric structure are conducted with the European Space Agency AOPP/LMD Mars Climate Database. Selected simulations over regions of interest will also be presented.

  5. Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

    2002-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

  6. Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and

  7. Application of a mesoscale forecasting model (NMM) coupled to the CALMET to develop forecast meteorology to use with the CALPUFF air dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radonjic, Z.; Telenta, B.; Kirklady, J.; Chambers, D.; Kleb, H.

    2006-01-01

    An air quality assessment was undertaken as part of the Environmental Assessment for the Port Hope Area Initiative. The assessment predicted potential effects associated with the remediation efforts for historic low-level radioactive wastes and construction of Long-Term Waste Management Facilities (LTWMFs) for both the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects. A necessary element of air dispersion modelling is the development of suitable meteorological data. For the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects, a meteorological station was installed in close proximity to the location of the recommended LTWMF in Port Hope. The recommended location for the Port Granby LTWMF is approximately 10 km west of the Port Hope LTWMF. Concerns were raised regarding the applicability of data collected for the Port Hope meteorological station to the Port Granby Site. To address this concern, a new method for processing meteorological data, which coupled mesoscale meteorological forecasting data the U.S. EPA CALMET meteorological data processor, was applied. This methodology is possible because a new and advanced mesoscale forecasting modelling system enables extensive numerical calculations on personal computers. As a result of this advancement, mesoscale forecasting systems can now be coupled with the CALMET meteorological data processor and the CALPUFF air dispersion modelling system to facilitate wind field estimations and air dispersion analysis. (author)

  8. Modelling NOX concentrations through CFD-RANS in an urban hot-spot using high resolution traffic emissions and meteorology from a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Beatriz; Santiago, Jose Luis; Martilli, Alberto; Martin, Fernando; Borge, Rafael; Quaassdorff, Christina; de la Paz, David

    2017-08-01

    Air quality management requires more detailed studies about air pollution at urban and local scale over long periods of time. This work focuses on obtaining the spatial distribution of NOx concentration averaged over several days in a heavily trafficked urban area in Madrid (Spain) using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. A methodology based on weighted average of CFD simulations is applied computing the time evolution of NOx dispersion as a sequence of steady-state scenarios taking into account the actual atmospheric conditions. The inputs of emissions are estimated from the traffic emission model and the meteorological information used is derived from a mesoscale model. Finally, the computed concentration map correlates well with 72 passive samplers deployed in the research area. This work reveals the potential of using urban mesoscale simulations together with detailed traffic emissions so as to provide accurate maps of pollutant concentration at microscale using CFD simulations.

  9. Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amicarelli, A; Pelliccioni, A [ISPESL - Dipartimento Insediamenti Produttivi e Interazione con l' Ambiente, Via Fontana Candida, 1 00040 Monteporzio Catone (RM) Italy (Italy); Finardi, S; Silibello, C [ARIANET, via Gilino 9, 20128 Milano (Italy); Gariazzo, C

    2008-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM{sub 10} concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

  10. Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amicarelli, A.; Gariazzo, C.; Finardi, S.; Pelliccioni, A.; Silibello, C.

    2008-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

  11. Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amicarelli, A; Pelliccioni, A; Finardi, S; Silibello, C; Gariazzo, C

    2008-01-01

    Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM 10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode

  12. Utilization of mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC as a meteorological forecast model in nuclear emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1997-01-01

    It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)

  13. Evaluation of meteorological fields generated by a prognostic mesoscale model using data collected during the 1993 GMAQS/COAST field study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lolk, N.K.; Douglas, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    In 1993, the US Interior Department's Minerals Management Service (MMS) sponsored the Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study (GMAQS). Its purpose was to assess potential impacts of offshore petrochemical development on ozone concentrations in nonattainment areas in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region as mandated by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The GMAQS comprised data collection, data analysis, and applications of an advanced photochemical air quality model, the variable-grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V), and a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model (SAIMM -- Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model) to simulate two ozone episodes that were captured during the summer field study. The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the SAIMM-simulated meteorological fields using graphical analysis that utilize the comprehensive GMAQS/COAST (Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study/Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas) database and to demonstrate the ability of the SAIMM to simulate the day-to-day variations in the evolution and structure of the gulf breeze and the mixed layer

  14. Mesoscale Model Data Preparation and Execution: A New Method Utilizing the Internet

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kirby, Stephen

    2002-01-01

    In order to streamline and simplify the methodologies required to obtain and process the requisite meteorological data for mesoscale meteorological models such as the Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM...

  15. Modeling mesoscale eddies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canuto, V. M.; Dubovikov, M. S.

    Mesoscale eddies are not resolved in coarse resolution ocean models and must be modeled. They affect both mean momentum and scalars. At present, no generally accepted model exists for the former; in the latter case, mesoscales are modeled with a bolus velocity u∗ to represent a sink of mean potential energy. However, comparison of u∗(model) vs. u∗ (eddy resolving code, [J. Phys. Ocean. 29 (1999) 2442]) has shown that u∗(model) is incomplete and that additional terms, "unrelated to thickness source or sinks", are required. Thus far, no form of the additional terms has been suggested. To describe mesoscale eddies, we employ the Navier-Stokes and scalar equations and a turbulence model to treat the non-linear interactions. We then show that the problem reduces to an eigenvalue problem for the mesoscale Bernoulli potential. The solution, which we derive in analytic form, is used to construct the momentum and thickness fluxes. In the latter case, the bolus velocity u∗ is found to contain two types of terms: the first type entails the gradient of the mean potential vorticity and represents a positive contribution to the production of mesoscale potential energy; the second type of terms, which is new, entails the velocity of the mean flow and represents a negative contribution to the production of mesoscale potential energy, or equivalently, a backscatter process whereby a fraction of the mesoscale potential energy is returned to the original reservoir of mean potential energy. This type of terms satisfies the physical description of the additional terms given by [J. Phys. Ocean. 29 (1999) 2442]. The mesoscale flux that enters the momentum equations is also contributed by two types of terms of the same physical nature as those entering the thickness flux. The potential vorticity flux is also shown to contain two types of terms: the first is of the gradient-type while the other terms entail the velocity of the mean flow. An expression is derived for the mesoscale

  16. Mesoscale meteorological measurements characterizing complex flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubbe, J.M.; Allwine, K.J.

    1993-09-01

    Meteorological measurements are an integral and essential component of any emergency response system for addressing accidental releases from nuclear facilities. An important element of the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) program is the refinement and use of state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation. ASCOT is currently making use of ground-based remote wind sensing instruments such as doppler acoustic sounders (sodars). These instruments are capable of continuously and reliably measuring winds up to several hundred meters above the ground, unattended. Two sodars are currently measuring the winds, as part of ASCOT's Front Range Study, in the vicinity of DOE's Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) near Boulder, Colorado. A brief description of ASCOT's ongoing Front Range Study is given followed by a case study analysis that demonstrates the utility of the meteorological measurement equipment and the complexity of flow phenomena that are experienced near RFP. These complex flow phenomena can significantly influence the transport of the released material and consequently need to be identified for accurate assessments of the consequences of a release

  17. O the Development and Use of Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation in Limited-Area Mesoscale Models Used for Meteorological Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, David R.

    1990-01-01

    The application of dynamic relationships to the analysis problem for the atmosphere is extended to use a full-physics limited-area mesoscale model as the dynamic constraint. A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on Newtonian relaxation or "nudging" is developed and evaluated in the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model, which is used here as a dynamic-analysis tool. The thesis is to determine what assimilation strategies and what meterological fields (mass, wind or both) have the greatest positive impact on the 72-h numerical simulations (dynamic analyses) of two mid-latitude, real-data cases. The basic FDDA methodology is tested in a 10-layer version of the model with a bulk-aerodynamic (single-layer) representation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and refined in a 15-layer version of the model by considering the effects of data assimilation within a multi-layer PBL scheme. As designed, the model solution can be relaxed toward either gridded analyses ("analysis nudging"), or toward the actual observations ("obs nudging"). The data used for assimilation include standard 12-hourly rawinsonde data, and also 3-hourly mesoalpha-scale surface data which are applied within the model's multi-layer PBL. Continuous assimilation of standard-resolution rawinsonde data into the 10-layer model successfully reduced large-scale amplitude and phase errors while the model realistically simulated mesoscale structures poorly defined or absent in the rawinsonde analyses and in the model simulations without FDDA. Nudging the model fields directly toward the rawinsonde observations generally produced results comparable to nudging toward gridded analyses. This obs -nudging technique is especially attractive for the assimilation of high-frequency, asynoptic data. Assimilation of 3-hourly surface wind and moisture data into the 15-layer FDDA system was most effective for improving the simulated precipitation fields because a

  18. Wake modelling combining mesoscale and microscale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Volker, Patrick; Prospathospoulos, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the basis for introducing thrust information from microscale wake models into mesocale model wake parameterizations will be described. A classification system for the different types of mesoscale wake parameterizations is suggested and outlined. Four different mesoscale wake paramet...

  19. Mesoscale Modeling, Forecasting and Remote Sensing Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    remote sensing , cyclonic scale diagnostic studies and mesoscale numerical modeling and forecasting are summarized. Mechanisms involved in the release of potential instability are discussed and simulated quantitatively, giving particular attention to the convective formulation. The basic mesoscale model is documented including the equations, boundary condition, finite differences and initialization through an idealized frontal zone. Results of tests including a three dimensional test with real data, tests of convective/mesoscale interaction and tests with a detailed

  20. Atmospheric Boundary Layer Modeling for Combined Meteorology and Air Quality Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospheric Eulerian grid models for mesoscale and larger applications require sub-grid models for turbulent vertical exchange processes, particularly within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PSL). In combined meteorology and air quality modeling systems consistent PSL modeling of wi...

  1. Intercomparison of Meteorological Forcing Data from Empirical and Mesoscale Model Sources in the N.F. American River Basin in northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.; Hamlet, A. F.; Hughes, M. R.; Feld, S.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2012-12-01

    The data required to drive distributed hydrological models is significantly limited within mountainous terrain due to a scarcity of observations. This study evaluated three common configurations of forcing data: a) one low-elevation station, combined with empirical techniques, b) gridded output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and c) a combination of the two. Each configuration was evaluated within the heavily-instrumented North Fork American River Basin in northern California, during October-June 2000-2010. Simulations of streamflow and snowpack using the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) highlighted precipitation and radiation as variables whose sources resulted in significant differences. The best source of precipitation data varied between years. On average, the performance of WRF and the single station distributed using the Parameter Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), were not significantly different. The average percent biases in simulated streamflow were 3.4% and 0.9%, for configurations a) and b) respectively, even though precipitation compared directly with gauge measurements was biased high by 6% and 17%, suggesting that gauge undercatch may explain part of the bias. Simulations of snowpack using empirically-estimated long-wave irradiance resulted in melt rates lower than those observed at high-elevation sites, while at lower-elevations the same forcing caused significant mid-winter melt that was not observed (Figure 1). These results highlight the complexity of how forcing data sources impact hydrology over different areas (high vs. low elevation snow) and different time-periods. Overall, results support the use of output from the WRF model over empirical techniques in regions with limited station data. FIG. 1. (a,b) Simulated SWE from DHSVM compared to observations at the Sierra Snow Lab (2100m) and Blue Canyon (1609m) during 2008 - 2009. Modeled (c,d) internal pack temperature, (e,f) downward

  2. Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD): A Cyberinfrastructure for Mesoscale Meteorology Research and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droegemeier, K.

    2004-12-01

    complete framework for mesoscale meteorology research and education. A set of Integrated Grid and Web Services Testbeds will maintain a rolling archive of several months of recent data, provide tools for operating on them, and serve as an infrastructure (i.e., a mini Grid) for developing distributed Web services capabilities. Education Testbeds will integrate education and outreach throughout the entire LEAD program, and will help shape LEAD research into applications that are congruent with pedagogic requirements, national standards, and evaluation metrics. Ultimately, the LEAD environments will enable researchers, educators, and students to run atmospheric models and other tools in much more realistic, real time settings than is now possible, with emphasis on the use of locally or otherwise uniquely available data.

  3. Preliminary user's guide for the SIGMET mesoscale meteorology code. Special report, 15 June 1977-15 June 1978

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patnaik, P. C.

    1979-06-01

    The SIGMET mesoscale meteorology simulation code represents an extension, in terms of physical modelling detail and numerical approach, of the work of Anthes (1972) and Anthes and Warner (1974). The code utilizes a finite difference technique to solve the so-called primitive equations which describe transient flow in the atmosphere. The SIGMET modelling contains all of the physics required to simulate the time dependent meteorology of a region with description of both the planetary boundary layer and upper level flow as they are affected by synoptic forcing and complex terrain. The mathematical formulation of the SIGMET model and the various physical effects incorporated into it are summarized.

  4. Wind-Farm Parametrisations in Mesoscale Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we compare three wind-farm parametrisations for mesoscale models against measurement data from the Horns Rev I offshore wind-farm. The parametrisations vary from a simple rotor drag method, to more sophisticated models. Additional to (4) we investigated the horizontal resolution dep...

  5. Diurnal and seasonal variations in surface methane at a tropical coastal station: Role of mesoscale meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavitha, M; Nair, Prabha R; Girach, I A; Aneesh, S; Sijikumar, S; Renju, R

    2018-08-01

    In view of the large uncertainties in the methane (CH 4 ) emission estimates and the large spatial gaps in its measurements, studies on near-surface CH 4 on regional basis become highly relevant. This paper presents the first time observational results of a study on the impacts of mesoscale meteorology on the temporal variations of near-surface CH 4 at a tropical coastal station, in India. It is based on the in-situ measurements conducted during January 2014 to August 2016, using an on-line CH 4 analyzer working on the principle of gas chromatography. The diurnal variation shows a daytime low (1898-1925ppbv) and nighttime high (1936-2022ppbv) extending till early morning hours. These changes are closely associated with the mesoscale circulations, namely Sea Breeze (SB) and Land Breeze (LB), as obtained through the meteorological observations, WRF simulations of the circulations and the diurnal variation of boundary layer height as observed by the Microwave Radiometer Profiler. The diurnal enhancement always coincides with the onset of LB. Several cases of different onset timings of LB were examined and results presented. The CH 4 mixing ratio also exhibits significant seasonal patterns being maximum in winter and minimum in pre-monsoon/monsoon with significant inter-annual variations, which is also reflected in diurnal patterns, and are associated with changing synoptic meteorology. This paper also presents an analysis of in-situ measured near-surface CH 4 , column averaged and upper tropospheric CH 4 retrieved by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard Earth Observing System (EOS)/Aqua which gives insight into the vertical distribution of the CH 4 over the location. An attempt is also made to estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing for the measured CH 4 mixing ratio. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

    2003-01-01

    objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

  7. Mathematical problems in meteorological modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Csomós, Petra; Faragó, István; Horányi, András; Szépszó, Gabriella

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the de...

  8. Assimilation of Aircraft Observations in High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian P. Reen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aircraft-based observations are a promising source of above-surface observations for assimilation into mesoscale model simulations. The Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR observations have potential advantages over some other aircraft observations including the presence of water vapor observations. The impact of assimilating TAMDAR observations via observation nudging in 1 km horizontal grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations is evaluated using five cases centered over California. Overall, the impact of assimilating the observations is mixed, with the layer with the greatest benefit being above the surface in the lowest 1000 m above ground level and the variable showing the most consistent benefit being temperature. Varying the nudging configuration demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to details of the assimilation, but does not clearly demonstrate the superiority of a specific configuration.

  9. Mesoscale Models of Fluid Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boghosian, Bruce M.; Hadjiconstantinou, Nicolas G.

    During the last half century, enormous progress has been made in the field of computational materials modeling, to the extent that in many cases computational approaches are used in a predictive fashion. Despite this progress, modeling of general hydrodynamic behavior remains a challenging task. One of the main challenges stems from the fact that hydrodynamics manifests itself over a very wide range of length and time scales. On one end of the spectrum, one finds the fluid's "internal" scale characteristic of its molecular structure (in the absence of quantum effects, which we omit in this chapter). On the other end, the "outer" scale is set by the characteristic sizes of the problem's domain. The resulting scale separation or lack thereof as well as the existence of intermediate scales are key to determining the optimal approach. Successful treatments require a judicious choice of the level of description which is a delicate balancing act between the conflicting requirements of fidelity and manageable computational cost: a coarse description typically requires models for underlying processes occuring at smaller length and time scales; on the other hand, a fine-scale model will incur a significantly larger computational cost.

  10. Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using DREAM - Validation against ETEX-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, J.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Christensen, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying...

  11. Applications of complex terrain meteorological models to emergency response management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Tetsuji; Leone, J.M. Jr.; Rao, K.S.; Dickerson, M.H.; Bader, D.C.; Williams, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), US Department of Energy (DOE), has supported the development of mesoscale transport and diffusion and meteorological models for several decades. The model development activities are closely tied to the OHER field measurement program which has generated a large amount of meteorological and tracer gas data that have been used extensively to test and improve both meteorological and dispersion models. This paper briefly discusses the history of the model development activities associated with the OHER atmospheric science program. The discussion will then focus on how results from this program have made their way into the emergency response community in the past, and what activities are presently being pursued to improve real-time emergency response capabilities. Finally, fruitful areas of research for improving real-time emergency response modeling capabilities are suggested. 35 refs., 5 figs

  12. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  13. A Quality-Control-Oriented Database for a Mesoscale Meteorological Observation Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lussana, C.; Ranci, M.; Uboldi, F.

    2012-04-01

    In the operational context of a local weather service, data accessibility and quality related issues must be managed by taking into account a wide set of user needs. This work describes the structure and the operational choices made for the operational implementation of a database system storing data from highly automated observing stations, metadata and information on data quality. Lombardy's environmental protection agency, ARPA Lombardia, manages a highly automated mesoscale meteorological network. A Quality Assurance System (QAS) ensures that reliable observational information is collected and disseminated to the users. The weather unit in ARPA Lombardia, at the same time an important QAS component and an intensive data user, has developed a database specifically aimed to: 1) providing quick access to data for operational activities and 2) ensuring data quality for real-time applications, by means of an Automatic Data Quality Control (ADQC) procedure. Quantities stored in the archive include hourly aggregated observations of: precipitation amount, temperature, wind, relative humidity, pressure, global and net solar radiation. The ADQC performs several independent tests on raw data and compares their results in a decision-making procedure. An important ADQC component is the Spatial Consistency Test based on Optimal Interpolation. Interpolated and Cross-Validation analysis values are also stored in the database, providing further information to human operators and useful estimates in case of missing data. The technical solution adopted is based on a LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL and Php) system, constituting an open source environment suitable for both development and operational practice. The ADQC procedure itself is performed by R scripts directly interacting with the MySQL database. Users and network managers can access the database by using a set of web-based Php applications.

  14. Extreme gust wind estimation using mesoscale modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries

    2014-01-01

    , surface turbulence characteristics. In this study, we follow a theory that is different from the local gust concept as described above. In this theory, the gust at the surface is non-local; it is produced by the deflection of air parcels flowing in the boundary layer and brought down to the surface...... from the Danish site Høvsøre help us to understand the limitation of the traditional method. Good agreement was found between the extreme gust atlases for South Africa and the existing map made from a limited number of measurements across the country. Our study supports the non-local gust theory. While...... through turbulent eddies. This process is modeled using the mesoscale Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model. The gust at the surface is calculated as the largest winds over a layer where the averaged turbulence kinetic energy is greater than the averaged buoyancy force. The experiments have been...

  15. Mesoscale Modelling of the Response of Aluminas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourne, N. K.

    2006-01-01

    The response of polycrystalline alumina to shock is not well addressed. There are several operating mechanisms that only hypothesized which results in models which are empirical. A similar state of affairs in reactive flow modelling led to the development of mesoscale representations of the flow to illuminate operating mechanisms. In this spirit, a similar effort is undergone for a polycrystalline alumina. Simulations are conducted to observe operating mechanisms at the micron scale. A method is then developed to extend the simulations to meet response at the continuum level where measurements are made. The approach is validated by comparison with continuum experiments. The method and results are presented, and some of the operating mechanisms are illuminated by the observed response

  16. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

  17. Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

  18. Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

    Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.

    Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

  19. The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

  20. Modelling regional scale surface fluxes, meteorology and CO2 mixing ratios for the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolk, L.F.; Peters, W.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Groenendijk, M.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Dolman, A.J.

    2009-01-01

    We simulated meteorology and atmospheric CO2 transport over the Netherlands with the mesoscale model RAMS-Leaf3 coupled to the biospheric CO2 flux model 5PM. The results were compared with meteorological and CO2 observations, with emphasis on the tall tower of Cabauw. An analysis of the coupled

  1. Performance of WRF for Simulation of Mesoscale Meteorological Characteristics for Air Quality Assessment over Tropical Coastal City, Chennai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madala, Srikanth; Srinivas, C. V.; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

    2018-01-01

    The land-sea breezes (LSBs) play an important role in transporting air pollution from urban areas on the coast. In this study, the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used for predicting boundary layer features to understand the transport of pollution in different seasons over the coastal region of Chennai in Southern India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with two non-local [Yonsei University (YSU) and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2)] and three turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) closure [Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi and Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE)], planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes for simulating the thermodynamic structure, and low-level atmospheric flow in different seasons. Comparison of simulations with observations from a global positioning system (GPS) radiosonde, meteorological tower, automated weather stations, and Doppler weather radar (DWR)-derived wind data reveals that the characteristics of LSBs vary widely in different seasons and are more prominent during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (March-September) with large horizontal and vertical extents compared to the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The qualitative and quantitative results indicate that simulations with ACM2 followed by MYNN2 and YSU produced various features of the LSBs, boundary layer parameters and the thermo-dynamical structure in better agreement with observations than other tested physical parameterization schemes. Simulations revealed seasonal variation of onset time, vertical extent of LSBs, and mixed layer depth, which would influence the air pollution dispersion in different seasons over the study region.

  2. The mesoscale dispersion modeling system a simulation tool for development of an emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uliasz, M.

    1990-01-01

    The mesoscale dispersion modeling system is under continuous development. The included numerical models require further improvements and evaluation against data from meteorological and tracer field experiments. The system can not be directly applied to real time predictions. However, it seems to be a useful simulation tool for solving several problems related to planning the monitoring network and development of the emergency response system for the nuclear power plant located in a coastal area. The modeling system can be also applied to another environmental problems connected with air pollution dispersion in complex terrain. The presented numerical models are designed for the use on personal computers and are relatively fast in comparison with the similar mesoscale models developed on mainframe computers

  3. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  4. Multiscale Modeling of Mesoscale and Interfacial Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petsev, Nikolai Dimitrov

    With rapidly emerging technologies that feature interfaces modified at the nanoscale, traditional macroscopic models are pushed to their limits to explain phenomena where molecular processes can play a key role. Often, such problems appear to defy explanation when treated with coarse-grained continuum models alone, yet remain prohibitively expensive from a molecular simulation perspective. A prominent example is surface nanobubbles: nanoscopic gaseous domains typically found on hydrophobic surfaces that have puzzled researchers for over two decades due to their unusually long lifetimes. We show how an entirely macroscopic, non-equilibrium model explains many of their anomalous properties, including their stability and abnormally small gas-side contact angles. From this purely transport perspective, we investigate how factors such as temperature and saturation affect nanobubbles, providing numerous experimentally testable predictions. However, recent work also emphasizes the relevance of molecular-scale phenomena that cannot be described in terms of bulk phases or pristine interfaces. This is true for nanobubbles as well, whose nanoscale heights may require molecular detail to capture the relevant physics, in particular near the bubble three-phase contact line. Therefore, there is a clear need for general ways to link molecular granularity and behavior with large-scale continuum models in the treatment of many interfacial problems. In light of this, we have developed a general set of simulation strategies that couple mesoscale particle-based continuum models to molecular regions simulated through conventional molecular dynamics (MD). In addition, we derived a transport model for binary mixtures that opens the possibility for a wide range of applications in biological and drug delivery problems, and is readily reconciled with our hybrid MD-continuum techniques. Approaches that couple multiple length scales for fluid mixtures are largely absent in the literature, and

  5. Implementation of meso-scale radioactive dispersion model for GPU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sunarko [National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN), Jakarta (Indonesia). Nuclear Energy Assessment Center; Suud, Zaki [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia). Physics Dept.

    2017-05-15

    Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Method (LPDM) is applied to model atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material in a meso-scale of a few tens of kilometers for site study purpose. Empirical relationships are used to determine the dispersion coefficient for various atmospheric stabilities. Diagnostic 3-D wind-field is solved based on data from one meteorological station using mass-conservation principle. Particles representing radioactive pollutant are dispersed in the wind-field as a point source. Time-integrated air concentration is calculated using kernel density estimator (KDE) in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Parallel code is developed for GTX-660Ti GPU with a total of 1 344 scalar processors using CUDA. A test of 1-hour release discovers that linear speedup is achieved starting at 28 800 particles-per-hour (pph) up to about 20 x at 14 4000 pph. Another test simulating 6-hour release with 36 000 pph resulted in a speedup of about 60 x. Statistical analysis reveals that resulting grid doses are nearly identical in both CPU and GPU versions of the code.

  6. On Improving 4-km Mesoscale Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Aijun; Stauffer, David R.

    2006-03-01

    A previous study showed that use of analysis-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) and improved physics in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) produced the best overall performance on a 12-km-domain simulation, based on the 18 19 September 1983 Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) case. However, reducing the simulated grid length to 4 km had detrimental effects. The primary cause was likely the explicit representation of convection accompanying a cold-frontal system. Because no convective parameterization scheme (CPS) was used, the convective updrafts were forced on coarser-than-realistic scales, and the rainfall and the atmospheric response to the convection were too strong. The evaporative cooling and downdrafts were too vigorous, causing widespread disruption of the low-level winds and spurious advection of the simulated tracer. In this study, a series of experiments was designed to address this general problem involving 4-km model precipitation and gridpoint storms and associated model sensitivities to the use of FDDA, planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence physics, grid-explicit microphysics, a CPS, and enhanced horizontal diffusion. Some of the conclusions include the following: 1) Enhanced parameterized vertical mixing in the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence scheme has shown marked improvements in the simulated fields. 2) Use of a CPS on the 4-km grid improved the precipitation and low-level wind results. 3) Use of the Hong and Pan Medium-Range Forecast PBL scheme showed larger model errors within the PBL and a clear tendency to predict much deeper PBL heights than the TKE scheme. 4) Combining observation-nudging FDDA with a CPS produced the best overall simulations. 5) Finer horizontal resolution does not always produce better simulations, especially in convectively unstable environments, and a new CPS suitable for 4-km resolution is needed. 6

  7. Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  8. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion and prediction of high impact severe weather systems. Such models ... mesoscale models can be run at cloud resolving resolutions (∼1km) ... J. Earth Syst. Sci. 117, No. ..... similar to climate drift, indicating that those error components are ...

  9. Mesoscale modeling of solute precipitation and radiation damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yongfeng [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schwen, Daniel [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ke, Huibin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Bai, Xianming [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hales, Jason [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes the low length scale effort during FY 2014 in developing mesoscale capabilities for microstructure evolution in reactor pressure vessels. During operation, reactor pressure vessels are subject to hardening and embrittlement caused by irradiation-induced defect accumulation and irradiation-enhanced solute precipitation. Both defect production and solute precipitation start from the atomic scale, and manifest their eventual effects as degradation in engineering-scale properties. To predict the property degradation, multiscale modeling and simulation are needed to deal with the microstructure evolution, and to link the microstructure feature to material properties. In this report, the development of mesoscale capabilities for defect accumulation and solute precipitation are summarized. Atomic-scale efforts that supply information for the mesoscale capabilities are also included.

  10. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... Proceedings – Mathematical Sciences · Resonance – Journal of Science ... Land surface characteristics; high resolution mesoscale model; Uttarakhand ... to predict realistic location, timing, amount,intensity and distribution of rainfall ... region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Seaand Bay of Bengal.

  11. Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Final report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Jake

    This is the final report of the project PSO-10240 "Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling". The overall objective is to improve the estimation of extreme winds by developing and applying new methodologies to confront the many weaknesses in the current methodologies as explai...

  12. Wind profiler data in a mesoscale experiment from a meteorological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipser, E. J.; Augustine, J.; Cunning, J.

    1986-01-01

    During May and June of 1985, the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment of STORM-Central (OK PRE-STORM) was carried out, with the major objectives of learning more about mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and gaining experience in the use of new sensing systems and measurement strategies that will improve the design of STORM-Central. Three 50-MHz wind profilers were employed in a triangular array with sides about 275 km. It is far too soon to report any results of this effort, for it has barely begun. The purpose here is to show some examples of the data, some of the surrounding conventional data, and to discuss some of the issues important to meteorologists in evaluating the contribution of the profiler data. The case of 10 to 11 June 1985, featuring a major squall line system which crossed the dense observing network from northwest to southeast, passing the Liberal site about 2230 GMT/10 June, the McPherson site about 0100 GMT/11 June, and Wichita about 0300 GMT/11 June is discussed. Radar and satellite data show that the system was growing rapidly when it passed Liberal, and was large and mature when it passed through McPherson and Wichita. The radar depiction of the system during this stage is given, with the McPherson site in the intense convective echoes near the leading edge at 01 GMT and in the stratiform precipitation at 03 GMT. The profiler wind data for a 9-hour period encompassing the squall line passage at each site are given.

  13. Satellite-derived land surface parameters for mesoscale modelling of the Mexico City basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. de Foy

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale meteorological modelling is an important tool to help understand air pollution and heat island effects in urban areas. Accurate wind simulations are difficult to obtain in areas of weak synoptic forcing. Local factors have a dominant role in the circulation and include land surface parameters and their interaction with the atmosphere. This paper examines an episode during the MCMA-2003 field campaign held in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA in April of 2003. Because the episode has weak synoptic forcing, there is the potential for the surface heat budget to influence the local meteorology. High resolution satellite observations are used to specify the land use, vegetation fraction, albedo and surface temperature in the MM5 model. Making use of these readily available data leads to improved meteorological simulations in the MCMA, both for the wind circulation patterns and the urban heat island. Replacing values previously obtained from land-use tables with actual measurements removes the number of unknowns in the model and increases the accuracy of the energy budget. In addition to improving the understanding of local meteorology, this sets the stage for the use of advanced urban modules.

  14. Meso-scale wind variability. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Larsen, X.; Vincent, C.; Soerensen, P.; Pinson, P.; Trombe, P.-J.; Madsen, H.; Cutululis, N.

    2011-11-15

    The project has aimed to characterize mesoscale meteorological phenomenon for the North Sea and the Inner Danish waters, and additionally aimed on improving the predictability and quality of the power production from offshore windfarms. The meso-scale meteorology has been characterized with respect to the physical processes, climatology, spectral characteristics and correlation properties based on measurements from wind farms, satellite data (SAR) and mesoscale numerical modeling (WRF). The abilities of the WRF model to characterize and predict relevant mesoscale phenomenon has been proven. Additionally application of statistical forecasting, using a Markov switching approach that can be related to the meteorological conditions, to analyze and short term predict the power production from an offshore wind farms have been documented. Two PhD studies have been conducted in connection with the project. The project has been a cooperative project between Risoe DTU, IMM DTU, DONG Energy, Vattenfall and VESTAS. It is registered as Energinet.dk, project no. 2007-1-7141. (Author)

  15. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  16. A Distributed Hydrological model Forced by DIMP2 Data and the WRF Mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.

    2010-12-01

    Forecasted warming over the next century will drastically reduce seasonal snowpack that provides 40% of the world’s drinking water. With increased climate warming, droughts may occur more frequently, which will increase society’s reliance on this same summer snowpack as a water supply. This study aims to reduce driving data errors that lead to poor simulations of snow ablation and accumulation, and streamflow. Results from the Distributed Hydrological Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (DMIP2) project using the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) highlighted the critical need for accurate driving data that distributed models require. Currently, the meteorological driving data for distributed hydrological models commonly rely on interpolation techniques between a network of observational stations, as well as historical monthly means. This method is limited by two significant issues: snowpack is stored at high elevations, where interpolation techniques perform poorly due to sparse observations, and historic climatological means may be unsuitable in a changing climate. Mesoscale models may provide a physically-based approach to supplement surface observations over high-elevation terrain. Initial results have shown that while temperature lapse rates are well represented by multiple mesoscale models, significant precipitation biases are dependent on the particular model microphysics. We evaluate multiple methods of downscaling surface variables from the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that are then used to drive DHSVM over the North Fork American River basin in California. A comparison between each downscaled driving data set and paired DHSVM results to observations will determine how much improvement in simulated streamflow and snowpack are gained at the expense of each additional degree of downscaling. Our results from DMIP2 will be used as a benchmark for the best available DHSVM run using all available observational data. The

  17. Parameterization of phase change of water in a mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levkov, L; Eppel, D; Grassl, H

    1987-01-01

    A parameterization scheme of phase change of water is suggested to be used in the 3-D numerical nonhydrostatic model GESIMA. The microphysical formulation follows the so-called bulk technique. With this procedure the net production rates in the balance equations for water and potential temperature are given both for liquid and ice-phase. Convectively stable as well as convectively unstable mesoscale systems are considered. With 2 figs..

  18. Mesoscale modeling of metal-loaded high explosives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bdzil, John Bohdan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lieberthal, Brandon [UNIV OF ILLINOIS; Srewart, Donald S [UNIV OF ILLINOIS

    2010-01-01

    We describe a 3D approach to modeling multi-phase blast explosive, which is primarily condensed explosive by volume with inert embedded particles. These embedded particles are uniform in size and placed on the array of a regular lattice. The asymptotic theory of detonation shock dynamics governs the detonation shock propagation in the explosive. Mesoscale hydrodynamic simulations are used to show how the particles are compressed, deformed, and accelerated by the high-speed detonation products flow.

  19. Development and analysis of prognostic equations for mesoscale kinetic energy and mesoscale (subgrid scale) fluxes for large-scale atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avissar, Roni; Chen, Fei

    1993-01-01

    Generated by landscape discontinuities (e.g., sea breezes) mesoscale circulation processes are not represented in large-scale atmospheric models (e.g., general circulation models), which have an inappropiate grid-scale resolution. With the assumption that atmospheric variables can be separated into large scale, mesoscale, and turbulent scale, a set of prognostic equations applicable in large-scale atmospheric models for momentum, temperature, moisture, and any other gaseous or aerosol material, which includes both mesoscale and turbulent fluxes is developed. Prognostic equations are also developed for these mesoscale fluxes, which indicate a closure problem and, therefore, require a parameterization. For this purpose, the mean mesoscale kinetic energy (MKE) per unit of mass is used, defined as E-tilde = 0.5 (the mean value of u'(sub i exp 2), where u'(sub i) represents the three Cartesian components of a mesoscale circulation (the angle bracket symbol is the grid-scale, horizontal averaging operator in the large-scale model, and a tilde indicates a corresponding large-scale mean value). A prognostic equation is developed for E-tilde, and an analysis of the different terms of this equation indicates that the mesoscale vertical heat flux, the mesoscale pressure correlation, and the interaction between turbulence and mesoscale perturbations are the major terms that affect the time tendency of E-tilde. A-state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model is used to investigate the relationship between MKE, landscape discontinuities (as characterized by the spatial distribution of heat fluxes at the earth's surface), and mesoscale sensible and latent heat fluxes in the atmosphere. MKE is compared with turbulence kinetic energy to illustrate the importance of mesoscale processes as compared to turbulent processes. This analysis emphasizes the potential use of MKE to bridge between landscape discontinuities and mesoscale fluxes and, therefore, to parameterize mesoscale fluxes

  20. Mesoscale modeling: solving complex flows in biology and biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Zachary Grant; Mao, Wenbin; Alexeev, Alexander

    2013-07-01

    Fluids are involved in practically all physiological activities of living organisms. However, biological and biorelated flows are hard to analyze due to the inherent combination of interdependent effects and processes that occur on a multitude of spatial and temporal scales. Recent advances in mesoscale simulations enable researchers to tackle problems that are central for the understanding of such flows. Furthermore, computational modeling effectively facilitates the development of novel therapeutic approaches. Among other methods, dissipative particle dynamics and the lattice Boltzmann method have become increasingly popular during recent years due to their ability to solve a large variety of problems. In this review, we discuss recent applications of these mesoscale methods to several fluid-related problems in medicine, bioengineering, and biotechnology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A Meteorological Distribution System for High Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    Spatially distributed terrestrial models generally require atmospheric forcing data on horizontal grids that are of higher resolution than available meteorological data. Furthermore, the meteorological data collected may not necessarily represent the area of interest's meteorological variability. To address these deficiencies, computationally efficient and physically realistic methods must be developed to take available meteorological data sets (e.g., meteorological tower observations) and generate high-resolution atmospheric-forcing distributions. This poster describes MicroMet, a quasi-physically-based, but simple meteorological distribution model designed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 5-m to 1-km horizontal grid increments) meteorological data distributions required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The model produces distributions of the seven fundamental atmospheric forcing variables required to run most terrestrial models: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, incoming solar radiation, incoming longwave radiation, and precipitation. MicroMet includes a preprocessor that analyzes meteorological station data and identifies and repairs potential data deficiencies. The model uses known relationships between meteorological variables and the surrounding area (primarily topography) to distribute those variables over any given landscape. MicroMet performs two kinds of adjustments to available meteorological data: 1) when there are data at more than one location, at a given time, the data are spatially interpolated over the domain using a Barnes objective analysis scheme, and 2) physical sub-models are applied to each MicroMet variable to improve its realism at a given point in space and time with respect to the terrain. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) will be used as example Micro

  2. Evaluation of a mesoscale dispersion modelling tool during the CAPITOUL experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lac, C.; Bonnardot, F.; Connan, O.; Camail, C.; Maro, D.; Hebert, D.; Rozet, M.; Pergaud, J.

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric transport and dispersion were investigated during the CAPITOUL campaign using measurements of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer. Six releases of SF6 tracer were performed (March 9-11 and July 1-3, 2004) in the same suburban area of Toulouse conurbation, during the Intensive Observing Periods (IOP) of CAPITOUL. Concentration data were collected both at ground-level along axes perpendicular to the wind direction (at distances ranging between 280 m and 5000 m from the release point), and above the ground at 100 m and 200 m height using aircraft flights. Meteorological conditions were all associated with daytime anticyclonic conditions with weak winds and convective clear and cloudy boundary layers. A meso-scale dispersion modelling system, PERLE, developed at Meteo-France for environmental emergencies in case of atmospheric accidental release, was evaluated in terms of meteorology and dispersion, for the different tracer experiments, in its operational configuration. PERLE is based on the combination of the non-hydrostatic meso-scale MESO-NH model, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, and the Lagrangian particle model SPRAY. The statistical meteorological evaluation includes two sets of simulations with initialisation from ECMWF or ALADIN. The meteorological day-to-day error statistics show fairly good Meso-NH predictions, in terms of wind speed, wind direction and near-surface temperature. A strong sensitivity to initial fields concerns the surface fluxes, crucial for dispersion, with an excessive drying of the convective boundary layer with ALADIN initial fields, leading to an overprediction of surface sensible heat fluxes. A parameterization of dry and shallow convection according to the Eddy-Diffusivity-Mass-Flux (EDMF) approach (Pergaud et al. 2008) allows an efficient mixing in the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) and improves significantly the wind fields. A statistical evaluation of the dispersion prediction was then performed and shows a

  3. The role of mesoscale meteorology in modulating the (222)Rn concentrations in Huelva (Spain)--impact of phosphogypsum piles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Ceballos, M A; Vargas, A; Arnold, D; Bolívar, J P

    2015-07-01

    The combined analysis of (222)Rn activity concentrations and mesoscale meteorological conditions at Huelva city (Spain) was addressed in this study to understand the potential impact of phosphogypsum piles on the (222)Rn activity concentrations registered at this area. Hourly mean data from April 2012 to February 2013 registered at two sampling sites (Huelva city and in the background station of El Arenosillo, located 27 km to the south-east) have been used in the study. The results of the present study showed a large difference in mean radon concentrations between the two stations during the sampling period, 6.3 ± 0.4 Bq m(-3) at Huelva and 3.0 ± 0.2 Bq m(-3) at El Arenosillo. The analysis has demonstrated that hourly (222)Rn concentrations at Huelva city above 22 Bq m(-3), with nocturnal peaks up to 50 Bq/m(3), mainly coincided with the occurrence of a pure sea-land breeze cycle. Mesoscale circulations in this region are mainly characterized by two patterns of sea-land breeze, pure and non-pure, with the phosphosypsum piles directly upstream (south) of the city during the afternoon on pure sea-breeze days. The difference between mean (222)Rn activity concentrations at Huelva city were 9.9 ± 1.5 Bq m(-3) for the pure pattern and 3.3 ± 0.5 Bq m(-3) for the non-pure pattern, while in the background station concentrations were 3.9 ± 0.4 Bq m(-3) and 2.8 ± 0.4 Bq m(-3) respectively. Considering these large differences, a detailed analysis of composites and case studies of representative sea-land breeze cycles of both types and their impact on (222)Rn activity concentration was performed. The results suggested that the presence of the phosphogypsum piles was necessary in order to justify the high (222)Rn activity concentrations observed at Huelva compared with the background station in the afternoons on pure sea breeze days (1.5-2.0 Bq m(-3)). On the other hand, large night time differences between the two sites on these days were

  4. LBM estimation of thermal conductivity in meso-scale modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grucelski, A

    2016-01-01

    Recently, there is a growing engineering interest in more rigorous prediction of effective transport coefficients for multicomponent, geometrically complex materials. We present main assumptions and constituents of the meso-scale model for the simulation of the coal or biomass devolatilisation with the Lattice Boltzmann method. For the results, the estimated values of the thermal conductivity coefficient of coal (solids), pyrolytic gases and air matrix are presented for a non-steady state with account for chemical reactions in fluid flow and heat transfer. (paper)

  5. Optogenetic stimulation of a meso-scale human cortical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Prashanth; Szeri, Andrew; Sleigh, Jamie; Kirsch, Heidi

    2015-03-01

    Neurological phenomena like sleep and seizures depend not only on the activity of individual neurons, but on the dynamics of neuron populations as well. Meso-scale models of cortical activity provide a means to study neural dynamics at the level of neuron populations. Additionally, they offer a safe and economical way to test the effects and efficacy of stimulation techniques on the dynamics of the cortex. Here, we use a physiologically relevant meso-scale model of the cortex to study the hypersynchronous activity of neuron populations during epileptic seizures. The model consists of a set of stochastic, highly non-linear partial differential equations. Next, we use optogenetic stimulation to control seizures in a hyperexcited cortex, and to induce seizures in a normally functioning cortex. The high spatial and temporal resolution this method offers makes a strong case for the use of optogenetics in treating meso scale cortical disorders such as epileptic seizures. We use bifurcation analysis to investigate the effect of optogenetic stimulation in the meso scale model, and its efficacy in suppressing the non-linear dynamics of seizures.

  6. A three-dimensional viscous topography mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eichhorn, J; Flender, M; Kandlbinder, T; Panhans, W G; Trautmann, T; Zdunkowski, W G [Mainz Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Cui, K; Ries, R; Siebert, J; Wedi, N

    1997-11-01

    This study describes the theoretical foundation and applications of a newly designed mesoscale model named CLIMM (climate model Mainz). In contrast to terrain following coordinates, a cartesian grid is used to keep the finite difference equations as simple as possible. The method of viscous topography is applied to the flow part of the model. Since the topography intersects the cartesian grid cells, the new concept of boundary weight factors is introduced for the solution of Poisson`s equation. A three-dimensional radiosity model was implemented to handle radiative transfer at the ground. The model is applied to study thermally induced circulations and gravity waves at an idealized mountain. Furthermore, CLIMM was used to simulate typical wind and temperature distributions for the city of Mainz and its rural surroundings. It was found that the model in all cases produced realistic results. (orig.) 38 refs.

  7. Mesoscale modeling of amorphous metals by shear transformation zone dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homer, Eric R.; Schuh, Christopher A.

    2009-01-01

    A new mesoscale modeling technique for the thermo-mechanical behavior of metallic glasses is proposed. The modeling framework considers the shear transformation zone (STZ) as the fundamental unit of deformation, and coarse-grains an amorphous collection of atoms into an ensemble of STZs on a mesh. By employing finite element analysis and a kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm, the modeling technique is capable of simulating glass processing and deformation on time and length scales greater than those usually attainable by atomistic modeling. A thorough explanation of the framework is presented, along with a specific two-dimensional implementation for a model metallic glass. The model is shown to capture the basic behaviors of metallic glasses, including high-temperature homogeneous flow following the expected constitutive law, and low-temperature strain localization into shear bands. Details of the effects of processing and thermal history on the glass structure and properties are also discussed.

  8. Rotational and divergent kinetic energy in the mesoscale model ALADIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Blažica

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Kinetic energy spectra from the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model ALADIN with horizontal resolution 4.4 km are split into divergent and rotational components which are then compared at horizontal scales below 300 km and various vertical levels. It is shown that about 50% of kinetic energy in the free troposphere in ALADIN is divergent energy. The percentage increases towards 70% near the surface and in the upper troposphere towards 100 hPa. The maximal percentage of divergent energy is found at stratospheric levels around 100 hPa and at scales below 100 km which are not represented by the global models. At all levels, the divergent energy spectra are characterised by shallower slopes than the rotational energy spectra, and the difference increases as horizontal scales become larger. A very similar vertical distribution of divergent energy is obtained by using the standard ALADIN approach for the computation of spectra based on the extension zone and by applying detrending approach commonly used in mesoscale NWP community.

  9. Application of Prognostic Mesoscale Modeling in the Southeast United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    A prognostic model is being used to provide regional forecasts for a variety of applications at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Emergency response dispersion models available at SRS use the space and time-dependent meteorological data provided by this model to supplement local and regional observations. Output from the model is also used locally to aid in forecasting at SRS, and regionally in providing forecasts of the potential time and location of hurricane landfall within the southeast United States

  10. LES-based generation of high-frequency fluctuation in wind turbulence obtained by meteorological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao

    2017-11-01

    The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.

  11. Meso-scale modeling of irradiated concrete in test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorla, A.; Vaitová, M.; Le Pape, Y.; Štemberk, P.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A meso-scale finite element model for irradiated concrete is developed. • Neutron radiation-induced volumetric expansion is a predominant degradation mode. • Confrontation with expansion and damage obtained from experiments is successful. • Effects of paste shrinkage, creep and ductility are discussed. - Abstract: A numerical model accounting for the effects of neutron irradiation on concrete at the mesoscale is detailed in this paper. Irradiation experiments in test reactor (Elleuch et al., 1972), i.e., in accelerated conditions, are simulated. Concrete is considered as a two-phase material made of elastic inclusions (aggregate) subjected to thermal and irradiation-induced swelling and embedded in a cementitious matrix subjected to shrinkage and thermal expansion. The role of the hardened cement paste in the post-peak regime (brittle-ductile transition with decreasing loading rate), and creep effects are investigated. Radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) of the aggregate cause the development and propagation of damage around the aggregate which further develops in bridging cracks across the hardened cement paste between the individual aggregate particles. The development of damage is aggravated when shrinkage occurs simultaneously with RIVE during the irradiation experiment. The post-irradiation expansion derived from the simulation is well correlated with the experimental data and, the obtained damage levels are fully consistent with previous estimations based on a micromechanical interpretation of the experimental post-irradiation elastic properties (Le Pape et al., 2015). The proposed modeling opens new perspectives for the interpretation of test reactor experiments in regards to the actual operation of light water reactors.

  12. Meso-scale modeling of irradiated concrete in test reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giorla, A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Vaitová, M. [Czech Technical University, Thakurova 7, 166 29 Praha 6 (Czech Republic); Le Pape, Y., E-mail: lepapeym@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Štemberk, P. [Czech Technical University, Thakurova 7, 166 29 Praha 6 (Czech Republic)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A meso-scale finite element model for irradiated concrete is developed. • Neutron radiation-induced volumetric expansion is a predominant degradation mode. • Confrontation with expansion and damage obtained from experiments is successful. • Effects of paste shrinkage, creep and ductility are discussed. - Abstract: A numerical model accounting for the effects of neutron irradiation on concrete at the mesoscale is detailed in this paper. Irradiation experiments in test reactor (Elleuch et al., 1972), i.e., in accelerated conditions, are simulated. Concrete is considered as a two-phase material made of elastic inclusions (aggregate) subjected to thermal and irradiation-induced swelling and embedded in a cementitious matrix subjected to shrinkage and thermal expansion. The role of the hardened cement paste in the post-peak regime (brittle-ductile transition with decreasing loading rate), and creep effects are investigated. Radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) of the aggregate cause the development and propagation of damage around the aggregate which further develops in bridging cracks across the hardened cement paste between the individual aggregate particles. The development of damage is aggravated when shrinkage occurs simultaneously with RIVE during the irradiation experiment. The post-irradiation expansion derived from the simulation is well correlated with the experimental data and, the obtained damage levels are fully consistent with previous estimations based on a micromechanical interpretation of the experimental post-irradiation elastic properties (Le Pape et al., 2015). The proposed modeling opens new perspectives for the interpretation of test reactor experiments in regards to the actual operation of light water reactors.

  13. EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

    1999-01-01

    Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

  14. The effect of network resolution on data assimilation in a mesoscale model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudhia, J.

    1994-01-01

    One goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is to characterize meteorological fields over wide areas (200-km square) in order to better parameterize sub-grid-scale variability in general circulation models used for climate studies. Such a detailed knowledge over these areas is impossible with current observational methods alone, but the synthesis of a dataset by combining observations with a mesoscale numerical model is feasible. Current data assimilation techniques allow observed data to be incorporated while a model is running, thus constraining the model to fit the data as well as the data to be dynamically consistent with the model atmosphere. This interaction may therefore be regarded as a dynamical analysis technique. The technique used for data assimilation here will be the nudging method (Stauffer and Seaman 1990, Kuo and Guo 1989). Specifically, observational nudging where data at observational sites are gradually forced in the model without the need for a gridded analysis. This method is particularly appropriate for asynoptic data covering meso-β-scales, such as will be available at the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites. The method makes it possible to incorporate the wide variety of data coming from these sites

  15. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sorensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project 'Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure' (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Oresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  16. Analysis of Surface Heterogeneity Effects with Mesoscale Terrestrial Modeling Platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmer, C.

    2015-12-01

    An improved understanding of the full variability in the weather and climate system is crucial for reducing the uncertainty in weather forecasting and climate prediction, and to aid policy makers to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. A yet unknown part of uncertainty in the predictions from the numerical models is caused by the negligence of non-resolved land surface heterogeneity and the sub-surface dynamics and their potential impact on the state of the atmosphere. At the same time, mesoscale numerical models using finer horizontal grid resolution [O(1)km] can suffer from inconsistencies and neglected scale-dependencies in ABL parameterizations and non-resolved effects of integrated surface-subsurface lateral flow at this scale. Our present knowledge suggests large-eddy-simulation (LES) as an eventual solution to overcome the inadequacy of the physical parameterizations in the atmosphere in this transition scale, yet we are constrained by the computational resources, memory management, big-data, when using LES for regional domains. For the present, there is a need for scale-aware parameterizations not only in the atmosphere but also in the land surface and subsurface model components. In this study, we use the recently developed Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TerrSysMP) as a numerical tool to analyze the uncertainty in the simulation of surface exchange fluxes and boundary layer circulations at grid resolutions of the order of 1km, and explore the sensitivity of the atmospheric boundary layer evolution and convective rainfall processes on land surface heterogeneity.

  17. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claveau, J; Ramaroson, R [Office National d` Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1998-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  18. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claveau, J.; Ramaroson, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  19. Down-scaling wind energy resource from mesoscale to local scale by nesting and data assimilation with a CFD model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duraisamy Jothiprakasam, Venkatesh

    2014-01-01

    The development of wind energy generation requires precise and well-established methods for wind resource assessment, which is the initial step in every wind farm project. During the last two decades linear flow models were widely used in the wind industry for wind resource assessment and micro-siting. But the linear models inaccuracies in predicting the wind speeds in very complex terrain are well known and led to use of CFD, capable of modeling the complex flow in details around specific geographic features. Mesoscale models (NWP) are able to predict the wind regime at resolutions of several kilometers, but are not well suited to resolve the wind speed and turbulence induced by the topography features on the scale of a few hundred meters. CFD has proven successful in capturing flow details at smaller scales, but needs an accurate specification of the inlet conditions. Thus coupling NWP and CFD models is a better modeling approach for wind energy applications. A one-year field measurement campaign carried out in a complex terrain in southern France during 2007-2008 provides a well-documented data set both for input and validation data. The proposed new methodology aims to address two problems: the high spatial variation of the topography on the domain lateral boundaries, and the prediction errors of the mesoscale model. It is applied in this work using the open source CFD code Code-Saturne, coupled with the mesoscale forecast model of Meteo-France (ALADIN). The improvement is obtained by combining the mesoscale data as inlet condition and field measurement data assimilation into the CFD model. Newtonian relaxation (nudging) data assimilation technique is used to incorporate the measurement data into the CFD simulations. The methodology to reconstruct long term averages uses a clustering process to group the similar meteorological conditions and to reduce the number of CFD simulations needed to reproduce 1 year of atmospheric flow over the site. The assimilation

  20. Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

  1. Impact of two chemistry mechanisms fully coupled with mesoscale model on the atmospheric pollutants distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arteta, J.; Cautenet, S.; Taghavi, M.; Audiffren, N.

    time on SGI 3800 with 30 processors). Simplified mechanisms are really important to study cases for which an online coupling is necessary between meso-scale and chemistry models (clouds or aerosols plumes impacts, highly variable meteorology).

  2. Modeling of Mesoscale Variability in Biofilm Shear Behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallab Barai

    Full Text Available Formation of bacterial colonies as biofilm on the surface/interface of various objects has the potential to impact not only human health and disease but also energy and environmental considerations. Biofilms can be regarded as soft materials, and comprehension of their shear response to external forces is a key element to the fundamental understanding. A mesoscale model has been presented in this article based on digitization of a biofilm microstructure. Its response under externally applied shear load is analyzed. Strain stiffening type behavior is readily observed under high strain loads due to the unfolding of chains within soft polymeric substrate. Sustained shear loading of the biofilm network results in strain localization along the diagonal direction. Rupture of the soft polymeric matrix can potentially reduce the intercellular interaction between the bacterial cells. Evolution of stiffness within the biofilm network under shear reveals two regimes: a initial increase in stiffness due to strain stiffening of polymer matrix, and b eventual reduction in stiffness because of tear in polymeric substrate.

  3. Modeling mesoscale diffusion and transport processes for releases within coastal zones during land/sea breezes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyons, W.A.; Keen, C.S.; Schuh, J.A.

    1983-12-01

    This document discusses the impacts of coastal mesoscale regimes (CMRs) upon the transport and diffusion of potential accidental radionuclide releases from a shoreline nuclear power plant. CMRs exhibit significant spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal variability. Case studies illustrate land breezes, sea/lake breeze inflows and return flows, thermal internal boundary layers, fumigation, plume trapping, coastal convergence zones, thunderstorms and snow squalls. The direct application of a conventional Gaussian straight-line dose assessment model, initialized only by on-site tower data, can potentially produce highly misleading guidance as to plume impact locations. Since much is known concerning CMRs, there are many potential improvements to modularized dose assessment codes, such as by proper parameterization of TIBLs, forecasting the inland penetration of convergence zones, etc. A three-dimensional primitive equation prognostic model showed excellent agreement with detailed lake breeze field measurements, giving indications that such codes can be used in both diagnostic and prognostic studies. The use of relatively inexpensive supplemental meteorological data especially from remote sensing systems (Doppler sodar, radar, lightning strike tracking) and computerized data bases should save significantly on software development costs. Better quality assurance of emergency response codes could include systems of flags providing personnel with confidence levels as to the applicability of a code being used during any given CMR

  4. Mesoscale influence on long-range transport — evidence from ETEX modelling and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Rasmussen, Alix; Ellermann, Thomas; Lyck, Erik

    During the first European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) tracer gas was released from a site in Brittany, France, and subsequently observed over a range of 2000 km. Hourly measurements were taken at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) located at Risø, Denmark, using two measurement techniques. At this location, the observed concentration time series shows a double-peak structure occurring between two and three days after the release. By using the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is developed at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), simulations of the dispersion of the tracer gas have been performed. Using numerical weather-prediction data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) by DERMA, the arrival time of the tracer is quite well predicted, so also is the duration of the passage of the plume, but the double-peak structure is not reproduced. However, using higher-resolution data from the DMI version of the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (DMI-HIRLAM), DERMA reproduces the observed structure very well. The double-peak structure is caused by the influence of a mesoscale anti-cyclonic eddy on the tracer gas plume about one day earlier.

  5. Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

    2018-01-01

    A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

  6. The Explicit Wake Parametrisation V1.0: a wind farm parametrisation in the mesoscale model WRF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. H. Volker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We describe the theoretical basis, implementation, and validation of a new parametrisation that accounts for the effect of large offshore wind farms on the atmosphere and can be used in mesoscale and large-scale atmospheric models. This new parametrisation, referred to as the Explicit Wake Parametrisation (EWP, uses classical wake theory to describe the unresolved wake expansion. The EWP scheme is validated for a neutral atmospheric boundary layer against filtered in situ measurements from two meteorological masts situated a few kilometres away from the Danish offshore wind farm Horns Rev I. The simulated velocity deficit in the wake of the wind farm compares well to that observed in the measurements, and the velocity profile is qualitatively similar to that simulated with large eddy simulation models and from wind tunnel studies. At the same time, the validation process highlights the challenges in verifying such models with real observations.

  7. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph G.

    2009-01-01

    For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

  8. Toward the use of a mesoscale model at a very high resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gasset, N.; Benoit, R.; Masson, C. [Canada Research Chair on Nordic Environment Aerodynamics of Wind Turbines, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This presentation described a new compressible mesoscale model designed to obtain wind speed data for potential wind power resource development. Microscale modelling and computerized fluid dynamics (CFD) are used to study the mean properties of the surface layer of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Mesoscale models study the temporal evolution of synoptic to mesoscale atmospheric phenomena and environmental modelling. Mesoscale modelling is essential for wind energy applications and large-scale resource evaluation, and can be compared with microscale models in order to validate input data and determine boundary conditions. The compressible community mesoscale model (MC2) was comprised of a national weather prediction (NWP) model with semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) dynamics and compressible Euler equation solutions. Physical parameters included radiations; microphysics; thermal stratification; turbulence; and convection. The turbulence diffusion feature included unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes; transport equations for turbulent kinetic energy; and mixing lengths. Operating modes included 3-D weather data, and surface and ground properties as well as 1-way self-nesting abilities. The validation framework for the model included a simulation of a set of realistic cases and theoretical cases including full dynamics and physics. Theoretical cases included manually imposed initial and boundary conditions and minimalist physics. Further research is being conducted to refine operating modes and boundary conditions. tabs., figs.

  9. Meteorological Modeling Using the WRF-ARW Model for Grand Bay Intensive Studies of Atmospheric Mercury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fong Ngan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Measurements at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve support a range of research activities aimed at improving the understanding of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury. Routine monitoring was enhanced by two intensive measurement periods conducted at the site in summer 2010 and spring 2011. Detailed meteorological data are required to properly represent the weather conditions, to determine the transport and dispersion of plumes and to understand the wet and dry deposition of mercury. To describe the mesoscale features that might influence future plume calculations for mercury episodes during the Grand Bay Intensive campaigns, fine-resolution meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were conducted with various initialization and nudging configurations. The WRF simulations with nudging generated reasonable results in comparison with conventional observations in the region and measurements obtained at the Grand Bay site, including surface and sounding data. The grid nudging, together with observational nudging, had a positive effect on wind prediction. However, the nudging of mass fields (temperature and moisture led to overestimates of precipitation, which may introduce significant inaccuracies if the data were to be used for subsequent atmospheric mercury modeling. The regional flow prediction was also influenced by the reanalysis data used to initialize the WRF simulations. Even with observational nudging, the summer case simulation results in the fine resolution domain inherited features of the reanalysis data, resulting in different regional wind patterns. By contrast, the spring intensive period showed less influence from the reanalysis data.

  10. A Study of Mesoscale Gravity Waves over the North Atlantic with Satellite Observations and a Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dong L.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2004-01-01

    Satellite microwave data are used to study gravity wave properties and variabilities over the northeastern United States and the North Atlantic in the December-January periods. The gravity waves in this region, found in many winters, can reach the stratopause with growing amplitude. The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations show that the wave occurrences are correlated well with the intensity and location of the tropospheric baroclinic jet front systems. To further investigate the cause(s) and properties of the North Atlantic gravity waves, we focus on a series of wave events during 19-21 January 2003 and compare AMSU-A observations to simulations from a mesoscale model (MM5). The simulated gravity waves compare qualitatively well with the satellite observations in terms of wave structures, timing, and overall morphology. Excitation mechanisms of these large-amplitude waves in the troposphere are complex and subject to further investigations.

  11. Mesoscale modeling of smoke radiative feedback over the Sahel region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.; Zhang, F.; Yue, Y.

    2013-12-01

    This study employs satellite observations and a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study the smoke radative feedback on surface energy budget, boundary layer processes, and atmospheric lapse rate in February 2008 over the Sahel region. The smoke emission inventories we use come from various sources, including but not limited to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) developed by NRL and the Fire Energetic and Emissions Research (FEER) developed by NASA GSFC. Model performance is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based datasets: MODIS true color images, ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements from AERONET, MODIS AOD retrievals, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) atmospheric backscattering and extinction products. Specification of smoke injection height of 650 m in WRF-Chem yields aerosol vertical profiles that are most consistent with CALIOP observations of aerosol layer height. Statistically, 5% of the CALIPSO valid measurements of aerosols in February 2008 show aerosol layers either above the clouds or between the clouds, reinforcing the importance of the aerosol vertical distribution for quantifying aerosol impact on climate in the Sahel region. The results further show that the smoke radiative feedbacks are sensitive to assumptions of black carbon and organic carbon ratio in the particle emission inventory. Also investigated is the smoke semi-direct effect as a function of cloud fraction.

  12. An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) During the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hart, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...

  13. A three-dimensional meso-scale modeling for helium bubble growth in metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzudo, T.; Kaburaki, H.; Wakai, E.

    2007-01-01

    A three-dimensional meso-scale computer model using a Monte-Carlo simulation method has been proposed to simulate the helium bubble growth in metals. The primary merit of this model is that it enables the visual comparison between the microstructure observed by the TEM imaging and those by calculations. The modeling is so simple that one can control easily the calculation by tuning parameters. The simulation results are confirmed by the ideal gas law and the capillary relation. helium bubble growth, meso-scale modeling, Monte-Carlo simulation, the ideal gas law and the capillary relation. (authors)

  14. Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

    2016-04-01

    1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and

  15. GEM: a dynamic tracking model for mesoscale eddies in the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiu-Yang; Sun, Liang; Lin, Sheng-Fu

    2016-12-01

    The Genealogical Evolution Model (GEM) presented here is an efficient logical model used to track dynamic evolution of mesoscale eddies in the ocean. It can distinguish between different dynamic processes (e.g., merging and splitting) within a dynamic evolution pattern, which is difficult to accomplish using other tracking methods. To this end, the GEM first uses a two-dimensional (2-D) similarity vector (i.e., a pair of ratios of overlap area between two eddies to the area of each eddy) rather than a scalar to measure the similarity between eddies, which effectively solves the "missing eddy" problem (temporarily lost eddy in tracking). Second, for tracking when an eddy splits, the GEM uses both "parent" (the original eddy) and "child" (eddy split from parent) and the dynamic processes are described as the birth and death of different generations. Additionally, a new look-ahead approach with selection rules effectively simplifies computation and recording. All of the computational steps are linear and do not include iteration. Given the pixel number of the target region L, the maximum number of eddies M, the number N of look-ahead time steps, and the total number of time steps T, the total computer time is O(LM(N + 1)T). The tracking of each eddy is very smooth because we require that the snapshots of each eddy on adjacent days overlap one another. Although eddy splitting or merging is ubiquitous in the ocean, they have different geographic distributions in the North Pacific Ocean. Both the merging and splitting rates of the eddies are high, especially at the western boundary, in currents and in "eddy deserts". The GEM is useful not only for satellite-based observational data, but also for numerical simulation outputs. It is potentially useful for studying dynamic processes in other related fields, e.g., the dynamics of cyclones in meteorology.

  16. A shallow convection parameterization for the non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaman, N.L.; Kain, J.S.; Deng, A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A shallow convection parameterization suitable for the Pennsylvannia State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) is being developed at PSU. The parameterization is based on parcel perturbation theory developed in conjunction with a 1-D Mellor Yamada 1.5-order planetary boundary layer scheme and the Kain-Fritsch deep convection model.

  17. Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Olita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data with an analysis (AN assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM. Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to

  18. Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Dolman

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture poor. The models' underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions · Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meterology

  19. Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Dolman

    Full Text Available As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture poor. The models' underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.

    Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions · Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meterology

  20. Phase Behavior of Semiflexible-Flexible Diblock Copolymer Melt: Insight from Mesoscale Modeling.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beránek, P.; Posel, Zbyšek

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 8 (2016), s. 7832-7835 ISSN 1533-4880 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LH12020 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : conformational asymmetry * dissipative particle dynamics * mesoscale modeling Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.483, year: 2016

  1. Shadowing effects of offshore wind farms - an idealised mesoscale model study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    The study of wind farm (WF) interaction is expected to gain importance, since the offshore wind farm density will increase especially in the North Sea in the near future. We present preliminary results of wind farm interaction simulated by mesoscale models. We use the Explicit Wake Parametrisatio...

  2. Use of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processors of decision support systems to improve the meteorological input of atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalets, I.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J.G.

    2003-01-01

    ) and the variant of method of successive corrections called 'Iteration to optimal solution' (IOS). Though these methods are famous and were previously widely used in the meteorological synoptic- and meso-scale prognostic and diagnostic models, they were modified for the needs of the MPP of the RODOS system that acts as local (micro)-scale diagnostic model. The central point in that modification was the combination of approaches encountered in the literature for determination of the 'weighting coefficient' with the above-mentioned methods. Special attention was given at the adequate use of both observed and prognostic data (cloud cover, net radiation, sensible heat flux, mixing height) to calculate the parameters required by the ADMs of the RODOS system, such as stability category, net radiation, Monin-Obukhov length, friction velocity, mixing height. As the MPP is in fact a diagnostic model, the developed methodological approach is a 3-dimensional data assimilation (3DDA), i.e., observations are used only on the same time level as the NWP data to produce the state of the meteorological fields at that time moment. The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) meteorological database has been used for evaluation of the developed methodology and software. The model results agree well with the measurements and the calculated values of the meteorological variables exhibit realistic behaviour, always lying in physically allowable bounds. IOS procedure can be effectively used for the local-scale calculations (domain size =∼ 100 km), while 0I method is better for larger scale calculations (domain size > 300 km). fig. 1 (author)

  3. Meteorological fluid dynamics asymptotic modelling, stability and chaotic atmospheric motion

    CERN Document Server

    Zeytounian, Radyadour K

    1991-01-01

    The author considers meteorology as a part of fluid dynamics. He tries to derive the properties of atmospheric flows from a rational analysis of the Navier-Stokes equations, at the same time analyzing various types of initial and boundary problems. This approach to simulate nature by models from fluid dynamics will be of interest to both scientists and students of physics and theoretical meteorology.

  4. Identification of Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) phenomenon with image of Himawari 8 Satellite and WRF ARW Model on Bangka Island (Case Study: 7-8 February 2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldy, Nanda; Saragih, Immanuel J. A.; Wandala Putra, Agie; Redha Nugraheni, Imma; Wijaya Yonas, Banu

    2017-12-01

    Based on monitoring on 7th and 8th February 2016 there has been a flood that occurred due to heavy rainfall in a long time in some areas of Bangka Island. Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) is one type of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Previous research on MCC mentions that MCC can cause heavy rain for a long time. This study aims to identify the phenomenon of MCC in Bangka Island both in the satellite imagery and the output of the model. In addition, this study was also conducted to determine the effect of MCC on the weather conditions in Bangka Island. The study area in this research is Bangka Island with Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station as the centre of research. The data used in this research are FNL (Final Analysis) data from http://rda.ucar.edu/, Satellite Image of Himawari-8 IR1 Channel from BMKG, and meteorological observation data (synoptic and radiosonde) from Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station. The FNL data is simulated using the WRF-ARW model, verified using observation data and then visualized using GrADS. The results of the analysis of Himawari-8 satellite image data showed that two MCCs occurred on 7th and 8th February 2016 on Bangka Island and the MCC was nocturnal, which appeared at night which then continued until extinction in the morning the next day. In a peak cloud temperature review with the coordinates of Pangkalpinang Meteorological Station (-2,163 N 106,137 E) when 1st MCC and 2nd MCC events ranged from -60°C to -80°C. The result of WRF-ARW model output analysis shows that MCC area has high humidity value and positive vertical velocity value which indicates the potential of heavy rain for a long time.

  5. Mesoscale Frontogenesis: An Analysis of Two Cold Front Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    marked the boundary of warm air or the "warm sector". Further development of this cyclone model by Bjerknes and Solberg (1922) and Bergeron (1928) provided...represent 25 mn s -1 Relative humidity of greater than 80% indicated by the shaded region in gray. Frontal zones marked with solid black lines. 24 two... Zuckerberg , J.T. Schaefer, and G.E. Rasch, 1986: Forecast problems: The meteorological and operational factors, In: Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting

  6. An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III

    2010-01-01

    The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWO's) use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature (T) and dew pOint (T d), as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network shown in Table 1. These objective statistics give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

  7. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)] [and others

    2013-08-15

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  8. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

    2013-08-01

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  9. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

  10. Improved Simulations of Mesoscale Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    the subroutines as indicated in the summary flowchart of Figure A.l. The numerical time and 3-D space dependent solution of the system of equations...1 I|_ ______________________ beginn ac N-N+subeoutiSe loop over 3 suons n I loop over =j~j zones il to KMAX IIC II as a function of time. Only...This solution sequence dictates that the vertical calculations of the FRICV and DIFV subroutines be performed in the innermost loop of the flowchart

  11. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  12. Mesoscale model parameterizations for radiation and turbulent fluxes at the lower boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somieski, F.

    1988-11-01

    A radiation parameterization scheme for use in mesoscale models with orography and clouds has been developed. Broadband parameterizations are presented for the solar and the terrestrial spectral ranges. They account for clear, turbid or cloudy atmospheres. The scheme is one-dimensional in the atmosphere, but the effects of mountains (inclination, shading, elevated horizon) are taken into account at the surface. In the terrestrial band, grey and black clouds are considered. Furthermore, the calculation of turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat and momentum at an inclined lower model boundary is described. Surface-layer similarity and the surface energy budget are used to evaluate the ground surface temperature. The total scheme is part of the mesoscale model MESOSCOP. (orig.) With 3 figs., 25 refs [de

  13. The Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM; Das Karlsruher Atmosphaerische Mesoskalige Modell KAMM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adrian, G. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Umwelt und Technik (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimaforschung]|[Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.). (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimaforschung

    1998-01-01

    The applications of the KAMM model range from real-time simulations over the analysis of mesoscale phenomena and the development of parametrizations to describing climatology. In the course of time, wishes emerged to change essential parts of the original model concept, calling for substantial reprogramming; so it was decided to entirely redraft the dynamic core of KAMM and to program it from the beginning including the parallelization of the code. The paper describes the basics of the new model core. (orig./KW) [Deutsch] Der Anwendungsbereich des KAMM-Modells erstreckt sich von Echtzeitsimulationen, ueber Analyse mesoskaliger Phaenomene, Entwicklung von Parametrisierungen bis hin zur beschreibenden Klimatologie. Weil im Laufe der Entstehungszeit wesentliche Aenderungswuensche des urspruenglichen Konzeptes entstanden sind, die eine Neuprogrammierung in wesentlichen Teilen erforderlich erscheinen lassen, wurde entschieden, den dynamischen Kern von KAMM voellig neu zu gestalten und bei der Programmierung eine Parallelisierung des Codes von Anfang an mit einzubeziehen. Die Grundlagen dieses neuen Modellkernes werden vorgestellt. (orig./KW)

  14. Evaluation of kriging based surrogate models constructed from mesoscale computations of shock interaction with particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Oishik, E-mail: oishik-sen@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Gaul, Nicholas J., E-mail: nicholas-gaul@ramdosolutions.com [RAMDO Solutions, LLC, Iowa City, IA 52240 (United States); Choi, K.K., E-mail: kyung-choi@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Jacobs, Gustaaf, E-mail: gjacobs@sdsu.edu [Aerospace Engineering, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92115 (United States); Udaykumar, H.S., E-mail: hs-kumar@uiowa.edu [Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Macro-scale computations of shocked particulate flows require closure laws that model the exchange of momentum/energy between the fluid and particle phases. Closure laws are constructed in this work in the form of surrogate models derived from highly resolved mesoscale computations of shock-particle interactions. The mesoscale computations are performed to calculate the drag force on a cluster of particles for different values of Mach Number and particle volume fraction. Two Kriging-based methods, viz. the Dynamic Kriging Method (DKG) and the Modified Bayesian Kriging Method (MBKG) are evaluated for their ability to construct surrogate models with sparse data; i.e. using the least number of mesoscale simulations. It is shown that if the input data is noise-free, the DKG method converges monotonically; convergence is less robust in the presence of noise. The MBKG method converges monotonically even with noisy input data and is therefore more suitable for surrogate model construction from numerical experiments. This work is the first step towards a full multiscale modeling of interaction of shocked particle laden flows.

  15. Comparative analysis of meteorological performance of coupled chemistry-meteorology models in the context of AQMEII phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution simulations critically depend on the quality of the underlying meteorology. In phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-2), thirteen modeling groups from Europe and four groups from North America operating eight different regional...

  16. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol-meteorology interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

    2013-07-01

    subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g., lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging), limitations in the physical parameterizations (e.g., shortwave radiation, cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments) as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget parameterizations (e.g., snow-related processes, subgrid-scale surface roughness elements, and urban canopy/heat island treatments and CO2 domes). While the use of finer grid resolutions of 0.125° and 0.025° shows some improvements for WS10, WD10, Precip, and some mesoscale events (e.g., strong forced convection and heavy precipitation), it does not significantly improve the overall statistical performance for all meteorological variables except for Precip. The WRF/Chem simulations with and without aerosols show that aerosols lead to reduced net shortwave radiation fluxes, 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, planetary boundary layer (PBL) height, and precipitation and increase aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei, cloud optical depth, and cloud droplet number concentrations over most of the domain. These results indicate a need to further improve the model representations of the above parameterizations as well as aerosol-meteorology interactions at all scales.

  17. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol–meteorology interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2013-07-01

    terrain and subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g., lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging, limitations in the physical parameterizations (e.g., shortwave radiation, cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget parameterizations (e.g., snow-related processes, subgrid-scale surface roughness elements, and urban canopy/heat island treatments and CO2 domes. While the use of finer grid resolutions of 0.125° and 0.025° shows some improvements for WS10, WD10, Precip, and some mesoscale events (e.g., strong forced convection and heavy precipitation, it does not significantly improve the overall statistical performance for all meteorological variables except for Precip. The WRF/Chem simulations with and without aerosols show that aerosols lead to reduced net shortwave radiation fluxes, 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, planetary boundary layer (PBL height, and precipitation and increase aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei, cloud optical depth, and cloud droplet number concentrations over most of the domain. These results indicate a need to further improve the model representations of the above parameterizations as well as aerosol–meteorology interactions at all scales.

  18. Coastal Foredune Evolution, Part 2: Modeling Approaches for Meso-Scale Morphologic Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    for Meso-Scale Morphologic Evolution by Margaret L. Palmsten1, Katherine L. Brodie2, and Nicholas J. Spore2 PURPOSE: This Coastal and Hydraulics ...managers because foredunes provide ecosystem services and can reduce storm damages to coastal infrastructure, both of which increase the resiliency...MS 2 U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Duck, NC ERDC/CHL CHETN-II-57 March 2017 2 models of

  19. Framework of cloud parameterization including ice for 3-D mesoscale models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levkov, L; Jacob, D; Eppel, D; Grassl, H

    1989-01-01

    A parameterization scheme for the simulation of ice in clouds incorporated into the hydrostatic version of the GKSS three-dimensional mesoscale model. Numerical simulations of precipitation are performed: over the Northe Sea, the Hawaiian trade wind area and in the region of the intertropical convergence zone. Not only some major features of convective structures in all three areas but also cloud-aerosol interactions have successfully been simulated. (orig.) With 19 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  1. Model study of meteorology and photochemical air pollution over un urban area in south-eastern France (ESCOMPTE campaign).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.

    2003-04-01

    The ESCOMPTE Campaign has been conducted over Southern France (Provence region including the Marseille, Aix and Toulon cities and the Fos-Berre industrial center) in June and July of 2001. In order to study the redistribution of the pollutants emitted by anthropic and biogenic emissions and their impact on the atmospheric chemistry, we used meso-scale modeling (RAMS model, paralleled version 4.3, coupled on line with chemical modules : MOCA2.2 (Poulet et al, 2002) including 29 gaseous species). The hourly high resolution emissions were obtained from ESCOMPTE database (Ponche et al, 2002). The model was coupled with the dry deposition scheme (Walmsley and Weseley,1996). In this particular case of complex circulation (sea breeze associated with topography), the processes involving peaks of pollution were strongly non linear, and the meso scale modeling coupled on line with chemistry module was an essential step for a realistic redistribution of chemical species. Two nested grids satisfactorily describe the synoptic dynamics and the sea breeze circulations. The ECMWF meteorological fields provide the initial and boundary conditions. Different events characterized by various meteorological situations were simulated. Meteorological fields retrieved by modeling, also Modeled ozone, NOx, CO and SO2 concentrations, were compared with balloons, lidars, aircrafts and surface stations measurements. The chemistry regimes were explained according to the distribution of plumes. The stratified layers were examined.

  2. Statistical Studies of Mesoscale Forecast Models MM5 and WRF

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henmi, Teizi

    2004-01-01

    ... models were carried out and the results were compared with surface observation data. Both models tended to overforecast temperature and dew-point temperature, although the correlation coefficients between forecast and observations were fairly high...

  3. Toward an extended-geostrophic Euler-Poincare model for mesoscale oceanographic flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, J.S.; Newberger, P.A. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States). Coll. of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences; Holm, D.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1998-07-01

    The authors consider the motion of a rotating, continuously stratified fluid governed by the hydrostatic primitive equations (PE). An approximate Hamiltonian (L1) model for small Rossby number {var_epsilon} is derived for application to mesoscale oceanographic flow problems. Numerical experiments involving a baroclinically unstable oceanic jet are utilized to assess the accuracy of the L1 model compared to the PE and to other approximate models, such as the quasigeostrophic (QG) and the geostrophic momentum (GM) equations. The results of the numerical experiments for moderate Rossby number flow show that the L1 model gives accurate solutions with errors substantially smaller than QG or GM.

  4. Toward a Mesoscale Model for the Dynamics of Polymer Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, G H; Trebotich, D

    2006-10-02

    To model entire microfluidic systems containing solvated polymers we argue that it is necessary to have a numerical stability constraint governed only by the advective CFL condition. Advancements in the treatment of Kramers bead-rod polymer models are presented to enable tightly-coupled fluid-particle algorithms in the context of system-level modeling.

  5. Gasdynamic modeling and parametric study of mesoscale internal combustion swing engine/generator systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yongxian

    The demand of portable power generation systems for both domestic and military applications has driven the advances of mesoscale internal combustion engine systems. This dissertation was devoted to the gasdynamic modeling and parametric study of the mesoscale internal combustion swing engine/generator systems. First, the system-level thermodynamic modeling for the swing engine/generator systems has been developed. The system performance as well as the potentials of both two- and four-stroke swing engine systems has been investigated based on this model. Then through parameterc studies, the parameters that have significant impacts on the system performance have been identified, among which, the burn time and spark advance time are the critical factors related to combustion process. It is found that the shorter burn time leads to higher system efficiency and power output and the optimal spark advance time is about half of the burn time. Secondly, the turbulent combustion modeling based on levelset method (G-equation) has been implemented into the commercial software FLUENT. Thereafter, the turbulent flame propagation in a generic mesoscale combustion chamber and realistic swing engine chambers has been studied. It is found that, in mesoscale combustion engines, the burn time is dominated by the mean turbulent kinetic energy in the chamber. It is also shown that in a generic mesoscale combustion chamber, the burn time depends on the longest distance between the initial ignition kernel to its walls and by changing the ignition and injection locations, the burn time can be reduced by a factor of two. Furthermore, the studies of turbulent flame propagation in real swing engine chambers show that the combustion can be enhanced through in-chamber turbulence augmentation and with higher engine frequency, the burn time is shorter, which indicates that the in-chamber turbulence can be induced by the motion of moving components as well as the intake gas jet flow. The burn time

  6. Data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models: current status and future prospects for coupled chemistry meteorology models

    OpenAIRE

    M. Bocquet; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; M. Hirtl; R. Žabkar; G. R. Carmichael; J. Flemming; A. Inness; M. Pagowski; J. L. Pérez Camaño; P. E. Saide; R. San Jose; M. Sofiev; J. Vira; A. Baklanov

    2015-01-01

    Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. They offer the possibility to assimilate both meteorologica...

  7. Effects of Meteorological Data Quality on Snowpack Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Robertson, M.; Hedrick, A. R.; Johnson, M.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed quality control of meteorological inputs is the most time-intensive component of running the distributed, physically-based iSnobal snow model, and the effect of data quality of the inputs on the model is unknown. The iSnobal model has been run operationally since WY2013, and is currently run in several basins in Idaho and California. The largest amount of user input during modeling is for the quality control of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and wind direction inputs. Precipitation inputs require detailed user input and are crucial to correctly model the snowpack mass. This research applies a range of quality control methods to meteorological input, from raw input with minimal cleaning, to complete user-applied quality control. The meteorological input cleaning generally falls into two categories. The first is global minimum/maximum and missing value correction that could be corrected and/or interpolated with automated processing. The second category is quality control for inputs that are not globally erroneous, yet are still unreasonable and generally indicate malfunctioning measurement equipment, such as temperature or relative humidity that remains constant, or does not correlate with daily trends observed at nearby stations. This research will determine how sensitive model outputs are to different levels of quality control and guide future operational applications.

  8. Physical modeling of shoreline bioremediation: Continuous flow mesoscale basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveum, P.; Ramstad, S.; Faksness, L.G.; Bech, C.; Johansen, B.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the design and use of continuous flow basin beach models in the study of bioremediation processes, and gives some results from an experiment designed to study the effects of different strategies for adding fertilizers. The continuous flow experimental basin system simulates an open system with natural tidal variation, wave action, and continuous supply and exchange of seawater. Biodegradation and bioremediation processes can thus be tested close to natural conditions. Results obtained using the models show a significant enhancement of biodegradation of oil in a sediment treated with an organic nutrient source, increased nutrient level in the interstitial water, and sediment microbial activity. These physical models gives biologically significant results, and can be used to simulate biodegradation and bioremediation in natural systems

  9. Application of a COSMO Mesoscale Model to Assess the Influence of Forest Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, A.; Rozinkina, I.; Kuzmina, E.; Nikitin, M.; Rivin, G. S.

    2017-12-01

    Modern changes in land use and forest cover have a significant influence on local, regional, and global weather and climate conditions. In this study, the mesoscale model COSMO is used to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change in the central part of the East European Plain on regional weather conditions. The "model region" of the study is surrounded by geographical coordinates 55° and 59°N and 28° and 37°E and situated in the central part of a large modeling domain (50° - 70° N and 15° 55° E), covering almost the entire East European Plain in Northern Eurasia. The forests cover about 50% of the area of the "model region". The modeling study includes 3 main numerical experiments. The first assumes total deforestation of the "model region" and replacement of forests by grasslands. The second is represented by afforestation of the "model region." In the third, weather conditions are simulated with present land use and vegetation structures of the "model region." Output of numerical experiments is at 13.2 km grid resolution, and the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis (with 6-h resolution in time and 0.75°×0.75° in space) is used to quantify initial and boundary conditions. Numerical experiments for the warm period of 2010 taken as an example show that deforestation and afforestation processes in the selected region can lead to significant changes in weather conditions. Deforestation processes in summer conditions can result in increased air temperature and wind speed, reduction of precipitation, lower clouds, and relative humidity. The afforestation process can result in opposite effects (decreased air temperature, increased precipitation, higher air humidity and fog frequency, and strengthened storm winds). Maximum meteorological changes under forest cover changes are projected for the summer months (July and August). It was also shown that changes of some meteorological characteristics (e.g., air temperature) is observed in the

  10. Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio; Moriarty, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150m diameter and hub heights above 100m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer stru...

  11. A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

  12. Strain in the mesoscale kinetic Monte Carlo model for sintering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Tikare, V.

    2014-01-01

    anisotropic strains for homogeneous powder compacts with aspect ratios different from unity. It is shown that the line direction biases shrinkage strains in proportion the compact dimension aspect ratios. A new algorithm that corrects this bias in strains is proposed; the direction for collapsing the column...... densification by vacancy annihilation removes an isolated pore site at a grain boundary and collapses a column of sites extending from the vacancy to the surface of sintering compact, through the center of mass of the nearest grain. Using this algorithm, the existing published kMC models are shown to produce...

  13. Verification of some numerical models for operationally predicting mesoscale winds aloft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornett, J.S.; Randerson, D.

    1977-01-01

    Four numerical models are described for predicting mesoscale winds aloft for a 6 h period. These models are all tested statistically against persistence as the control forecast and against predictions made by operational forecasters. Mesoscale winds aloft data were used to initialize the models and to verify the predictions on an hourly basis. The model yielding the smallest root-mean-square vector errors (RMSVE's) was the one based on the most physics which included advection, ageostrophic acceleration, vertical mixing and friction. Horizontal advection was found to be the most important term in reducing the RMSVE's followed by ageostrophic acceleration, vertical advection, surface friction and vertical mixing. From a comparison of the mean absolute errors based on up to 72 independent wind-profile predictions made by operational forecasters, by the most complete model, and by persistence, we conclude that the model is the best wind predictor in the free air. In the boundary layer, the results tend to favor the forecaster for direction predictions. The speed predictions showed no overall superiority in any of these three models

  14. Wind Farm parametrization in the mesoscale model WRF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Patrick; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2012-01-01

    , but are parametrized as another sub-grid scale process. In order to appropriately capture the wind farm wake recovery and its direction, two properties are important, among others, the total energy extracted by the wind farm and its velocity deficit distribution. In the considered parametrization the individual...... the extracted force is proportional to the turbine area interfacing a grid cell. The sub-grid scale wake expansion is achieved by adding turbulence kinetic energy (proportional to the extracted power) to the flow. The validity of both wind farm parametrizations has been verified against observational data. We...... turbines produce a thrust dependent on the background velocity. For the sub-grid scale velocity deficit, the entrainment from the free atmospheric flow into the wake region, which is responsible for the expansion, is taken into account. Furthermore, since the model horizontal distance is several times...

  15. Mesoscale modelling of atmospheric CO2 across Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansø, Anne Sofie

    2016-01-01

    of the simulated atmospheric CO2 across Denmark was, in particular, affected by the Danish terrestrial surface exchanges and its temporal variability. This study urges all future modelling studies of air–sea CO2 to include short-term variability in pCO2. To capture the full heterogeneity of the surface exchanges......It is scientifically well-established that the increase of atmospheric CO2 affects the entire globe and will lead to higher surface temperatures. Although anthropogenic CO2is emitted straight into the atmosphere, it does not all contribute to the existing atmospheric CO2 reservoir. Approximately 29......% is taken up by the global oceans, due to under-saturation of CO2 in the surface waters, while another 33 % is taken up by the terrestrial biosphere, via photosynthesis. In order to estimate the effects of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO2 more accurately in the future, it is essential to understand...

  16. Process analysis of the modelled 3-D mesoscale impact of aircraft emissions on the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendricks, J; Ebel, A; Lippert, E; Petry, H [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meterorologie

    1998-12-31

    A mesoscale chemistry transport model is applied to study the impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric trace gas composition. A special analysis of the simulations is conducted to separate the effects of chemistry, transport, diffusion and cloud processes on the transformation of the exhausts of a subsonic fleet cruising over the North Atlantic. The aircraft induced ozone production strongly depends on the tropopause height and the cruise altitude. Aircraft emissions may undergo an effective downward transport under the influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange activity. (author) 12 refs.

  17. Estimation of parasitic losses in a proposed mesoscale resonant engine: Experiment and model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

    2014-02-01

    A resonant engine in which the piston-cylinder assembly is replaced by a flexible cavity is realized at the mesoscale using flexible metal bellows to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A four stroke motoring technique is developed and measurements are performed to determine parasitic losses. A non-linear lumped parameter model is developed to evaluate the engine performance. Experimentally, the heat transfer and friction effects are separated by varying the engine speed and operating frequency. The engine energy flow diagram showing the energy distribution among various parasitic elements reveals that the friction loss in the bellows is smaller than the sliding friction loss in a typical piston-cylinder assembly.

  18. Simulations of a November thunderstorm event by two mesoscale models in the south Alpine region

    OpenAIRE

    Borroni, A.

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: Two numerical models have been used to investigate the development of a thunderstorm event that took place on November 7th , 2004, in the northern Italy. A cold air mass moved from the northeast to the Alps and the Po valley, while the temperature in the lower layers was quite warm. A thunderstorm with rain and hail developed in the central and eastern part of Italy's subalpine region. In this work it's analyzed some aspects of the thunderstorm dynamics at the mesoscale using two di...

  19. On the sensitivity of mesoscale models to surface-layer parameterization constants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.

    1989-09-01

    The Colorado State University standard mesoscale model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) fields to differences in surface-layer parameterization “constants”. Such differences reflect the range in the published values of the von Karman constant, Monin-Obukhov stability functions and the temperature roughness length at the surface. The sensitivity of 1D boundary-layer structure, and 2D sea-breeze intensity, is generally less than that found in published comparisons related to turbulence closure schemes generally.

  20. Process analysis of the modelled 3-D mesoscale impact of aircraft emissions on the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendricks, J.; Ebel, A.; Lippert, E.; Petry, H. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meterorologie

    1997-12-31

    A mesoscale chemistry transport model is applied to study the impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric trace gas composition. A special analysis of the simulations is conducted to separate the effects of chemistry, transport, diffusion and cloud processes on the transformation of the exhausts of a subsonic fleet cruising over the North Atlantic. The aircraft induced ozone production strongly depends on the tropopause height and the cruise altitude. Aircraft emissions may undergo an effective downward transport under the influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange activity. (author) 12 refs.

  1. Sensitivity of ocean model simulation in the coastal ocean to the resolution of the meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Thain, Richard

    2013-04-01

    The quality of ocean simulations depends on a number of factors such as approximations in governing equations, errors introduced by the numerical scheme, uncertainties in input parameters, and atmospheric forcing. The identification of relations between the uncertainties in input and output data is still a challenge for the development of numerical models. The impacts of ocean variables on ocean models are still not well known (e.g., Kara et al., 2009). Given the considerable importance of the atmospheric forcing to the air-sea interaction, it is essential that researchers in ocean modelling work need a good understanding about how sensitive the atmospheric forcing is to variations of model results, which is beneficial to the development of ocean models. Also, it provides a proper way to choose the atmospheric forcing in ocean modelling applications. Our previous study (Shapiro et al, 2011) has shown that the basin-wide circulation pattern and the temperature structure in the Black Sea produced by the same model is significantly dependent on the source of the meteorological input, giving remarkably different responses. For the purpose of this study we have chosen the Celtic Sea where high resolution meteo data are available from the UK Met office since 2006. The Celtic Sea is tidally dominated water basin, with the tidal stream amplitude varying from 0.25m/s in the southwest to 2 m/s in the Bristol Channel. It is also filled with mesoscale eddies which contribute to the formation of the residual (tidally averaged) circulation pattern (Young et al, 2003). The sea is strongly stratified from April to November, which adds to the formation of density driven currents. In this paper we analyse how sensitive the model output is to variations in the spatial resolution of meteorological using low (1.6°) and high (0.11°) resolution meteo forcing, giving the quantitative relation between variations of met forcing and the resulted differences of model results, as well as

  2. Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Particles Distribution and Their Radiative Feedback over Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Y.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.

    2015-12-01

    Stretching from southern boundary of Sahara to the equator and expanding west to east from Atlantic Ocean coasts to the India Ocean coasts, the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region has been subject to intense biomass burning. Comprised of savanna, shrub, tropical forest and a number of agricultural crops, the extensive fires burn belt covers central and south of NSSA during dry season (from October to March) contributes to one of the highest biomass burning rate per km2 in the world. Due to smoke particles' absorption effects of solar radiation, they can modify the surface and atmosphere temperature and thus change atmospheric stability, height of the boundary layer, regional atmospheric circulation, evaporation rate, cloud formation, and precipitation. Hence, smoke particles emitted from biomass burning over NSSA region has a significant influence to the air quality, weather and climate variability. In this study, the first version of this Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER.v1) emissions of several smoke constituents including light-absorbing organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) are applied to a state-of-science meteorology-chemistry model as NOAA Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We analyzed WRF-Chem simulations of surface and vertical distribution of various pollutants and their direct radiative effects in conjunction with satellite observation data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO) to strengthen the importance of combining space measured emission products like FEER.v1 emission inventory with mesoscale model over intense biomass burning region, especially in area where ground-based air-quality and radiation-related observations are limited or absent.

  3. Mapping Offshore Winds Around Iceland Using Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar and Mesoscale Model Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Badger, Merete; Nawri, Nikolai

    2015-01-01

    effects, gap flow, coastal barrier jets, and atmospheric gravity waves are not only observed in SAR, but are also modeled well from HARMONIE. Offshore meteorological observations are not available, but wind speed and wind direction measurements from coastal meteorological masts are found to compare well...... to nearby offshore locations observed by SAR. More than 2500 SAR scenes from the Envisat ASAR wide swathmode are used for wind energy resource estimation. The wind energy potential observed from satellite SAR shows high values above 1000 Wm −2 in coastal regions in the south, east, and west, with lower...

  4. Preliminary analysis of four numerical models for calculating the mesoscale transport of Kr-85

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepper, D W; Cooper, R E [Du Pont de Nemours (E.I.) and Co., Aiken, SC (USA). Savannah River Lab.

    1983-01-01

    A performance study of four numerical algorithms for multi-dimensional advection-diffusion prediction on mesoscale grids has been made. Dispersion from point and distributed sources and a simulation of a continuous source are compared with analytical solutions to assess relative accuracy. Model predictions are then compared with actual measurements of Kr-85 emitted from the Savannah River Plant (SRP). The particle-in-cell and method of moments algorithms exhibit superior accuracy in modeling single source releases. For modeling distributed sources, algorithms based on the pseudospectral and finite element interpolation concepts exhibit comparable accuracy. The method of moments is felt to be the best overall performer, although all the models appear to be relatively close in accuracy.

  5. Air quality modeling: evaluation of chemical and meteorological parameterizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngseob

    2011-01-01

    The influence of chemical mechanisms and meteorological parameterizations on pollutant concentrations calculated with an air quality model is studied. The influence of the differences between two gas-phase chemical mechanisms on the formation of ozone and aerosols in Europe is low on average. For ozone, the large local differences are mainly due to the uncertainty associated with the kinetics of nitrogen monoxide (NO) oxidation reactions on the one hand and the representation of different pathways for the oxidation of aromatic compounds on the other hand. The aerosol concentrations are mainly influenced by the selection of all major precursors of secondary aerosols and the explicit treatment of chemical regimes corresponding to the nitrogen oxides (NO x ) levels. The influence of the meteorological parameterizations on the concentrations of aerosols and their vertical distribution is evaluated over the Paris region in France by comparison to lidar data. The influence of the parameterization of the dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer is important; however, it is the use of an urban canopy model that improves significantly the modeling of the pollutant vertical distribution (author) [fr

  6. Simulation of coastal winds along the central west coast of India using the MM5 mesoscale model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pushpadas, D.; Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; George, S.; Babu, M.T.; Nair, T.M.B.

    A high-resolution mesoscale numerical model (MM5) has been used to study the coastal atmospheric circulation of the central west coast of India, and Goa in particular. The model is employed with three nested domains. The innermost domain of 3 km...

  7. High-resolution numerical modeling of mesoscale island wakes and sensitivity to static topographic relief data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. G. Nunalee

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent decades have witnessed a drastic increase in the fidelity of numerical weather prediction (NWP modeling. Currently, both research-grade and operational NWP models regularly perform simulations with horizontal grid spacings as fine as 1 km. This migration towards higher resolution potentially improves NWP model solutions by increasing the resolvability of mesoscale processes and reducing dependency on empirical physics parameterizations. However, at the same time, the accuracy of high-resolution simulations, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL, is also sensitive to orographic forcing which can have significant variability on the same spatial scale as, or smaller than, NWP model grids. Despite this sensitivity, many high-resolution atmospheric simulations do not consider uncertainty with respect to selection of static terrain height data set. In this paper, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to simulate realistic cases of lower tropospheric flow over and downstream of mountainous islands using the default global 30 s United States Geographic Survey terrain height data set (GTOPO30, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data set (GMTED2010 terrain height data sets. While the differences between the SRTM-based and GMTED2010-based simulations are extremely small, the GTOPO30-based simulations differ significantly. Our results demonstrate cases where the differences between the source terrain data sets are significant enough to produce entirely different orographic wake mechanics, such as vortex shedding vs. no vortex shedding. These results are also compared to MODIS visible satellite imagery and ASCAT near-surface wind retrievals. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of utilizing accurate static orographic boundary conditions when running high-resolution mesoscale models.

  8. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  9. Mesoscale spiral vortex embedded within a Lake Michigan snow squall band - High resolution satellite observations and numerical model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Keen, Cecil S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark; Pease, Steven R.

    1988-01-01

    It is known that Great Lakes snow squall convection occurs in a variety of different modes depending on various factors such as air-water temperature contrast, boundary-layer wind shear, and geostrophic wind direction. An exceptional and often neglected source of data for mesoscale cloud studies is the ultrahigh resolution multispectral data produced by Landsat satellites. On October 19, 1972, a clearly defined spiral vortex was noted in a Landsat-1 image near the southern end of Lake Michigan during an exceptionally early cold air outbreak over a still very warm lake. In a numerical simulation using a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrostatic primitive equation mesoscale model with an initially uniform wind field, a definite analog to the observed vortex was generated. This suggests that intense surface heating can be a principal cause in the development of a low-level mesoscale vortex.

  10. The dependence of the oceans MOC on mesoscale eddy diffusivities: A model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, John; Scott, Jeffery R.; Romanou, Anastasia; Kelley, Maxwell; Leboissetier, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    The dependence of the depth and strength of the ocean's global meridional overturning cells (MOC) on the specification of mesoscale eddy diffusivity (K) is explored in two ocean models. The GISS and MIT ocean models are driven by the same prescribed forcing fields, configured in similar ways, spun up to equilibrium for a range of K 's and the resulting MOCs mapped and documented. Scaling laws implicit in modern theories of the MOC are used to rationalize the results. In all calculations the K used in the computation of eddy-induced circulation and that used in the representation of eddy stirring along neutral surfaces, is set to the same value but is changed across experiments. We are able to connect changes in the strength and depth of the Atlantic MOC, the southern ocean upwelling MOC, and the deep cell emanating from Antarctica, to changes in K.

  11. LDRD final report : mesoscale modeling of dynamic loading of heterogeneous materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbins, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dingreville, Remi Philippe Michel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Voth, Thomas Eugene [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Furnish, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Material response to dynamic loading is often dominated by microstructure (grain structure, porosity, inclusions, defects). An example critically important to Sandia's mission is dynamic strength of polycrystalline metals where heterogeneities lead to localization of deformation and loss of shear strength. Microstructural effects are of broad importance to the scientific community and several institutions within DoD and DOE; however, current models rely on inaccurate assumptions about mechanisms at the sub-continuum or mesoscale. Consequently, there is a critical need for accurate and robust methods for modeling heterogeneous material response at this lower length scale. This report summarizes work performed as part of an LDRD effort (FY11 to FY13; project number 151364) to meet these needs.

  12. Developing Mesoscale Model of Fibrin-Platelet Network Representing Blood Clotting =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yueyi; Nikolov, Svetoslav; Bowie, Sam; Alexeev, Alexander; Lam, Wilbur; Myers, David

    Blood clotting disorders which prevent the body's natural ability to achieve hemostasis can lead to a variety of life threatening conditions such as, excessive bleeding, stroke, or heart attack. Treatment of these disorders is highly dependent on understanding the underlying physics behind the clotting process. Since clotting is a highly complex multi scale mechanism developing a fully atomistic model is currently not possible. We develop a mesoscale model based on dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) to gain fundamental understanding of the underlying principles controlling the clotting process. In our study, we examine experimental data on clot contraction using stacks of confocal microscopy images to estimate the crosslink density in the fibrin networks and platelet location. Using this data we reconstruct the platelet rich fibrin network and study how platelet-fibrin interactions affect clotting. Furthermore, we probe how different system parameters affect clot contraction. ANSF CAREER Award DMR-1255288.

  13. Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: A new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; French, Jon R.; Barkwith, Andrew; Bonaldo, Davide; Burningham, Helene; Brad Murray, A.; Payo, Andres; Sutherland, James; Thornhill, Gillian; Townend, Ian H.; van der Wegen, Mick; Walkden, Mike J. A.

    2016-03-01

    Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 101 to 102 years and 101 to 102 km. So-called 'reduced complexity' models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern landform behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner

  14. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jaewon; Kim, Soojun; Kim, Gilho; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seungjin; Kim, Hung Soo

    2015-06-29

    Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  15. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  16. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  17. Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind...

  18. Numerical Weather Prediction Models on Linux Boxes as tools in meteorological education in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyongyosi, A. Z.; Andre, K.; Salavec, P.; Horanyi, A.; Szepszo, G.; Mille, M.; Tasnadi, P.; Weidiger, T.

    2012-04-01

    . Numerical modeling became a common tool in the daily practice of weather experts forecasters due to the i) increasing user demands for weather data by the costumers, ii) the growth in computer resources, iii) numerical weather prediction systems available for integration on affordable, off the shelf computers and iv) available input data (from ECMWF or NCEP) for model integrations. Beside learning the theoretical basis, since the last year. Students in their MSc or BSc Thesis Research or in Student's Research ProjectsStudent's Research Projects h have the opportunity to run numerical models and to analyze the outputs for different purposes including wind energy estimation, simulation of the dynamics of a polar low, and subtropical cyclones, analysis of the isentropic potential vorticity field, examination of coupled atmospheric dispersion models, etc. A special course in the application of numerical modeling has been held (is being announced for the upcoming semester) (is being announced for the upcoming semester) for our students in order to improve their skills on this field. Several numerical model (NRIPR ETA and WRF) systems have been adapted in the University and integrated WRF have been tested and used for the geographical region of the Carpathian Basin (NRIPR, ETA and WRF). Recently ALADIN/CHAPEAU the academic version of the ARPEGE ALADIN cy33t1 meso-scale numerical weather prediction model system (which is the operational forecasting tool of our National Weather Service) has been installed at our Institute. ALADIN is the operational forecasting model of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and developed in the framework of the international ALADIN co-operation. Our main objectives are i) the analysis of different typical weather situations, ii) fine tuning of parameterization schemes and the iii) comparison of the ALADIN/CHAPEAU and WRF model outputs based on case studies. The necessary hardware and software innovations has have been done. In the presentation the

  19. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  20. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-01-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  1. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  2. Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2017-04-01

    Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. MELSAR: a mesoscale air quality model for complex terrain. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allwine, K.J.; Whiteman, C.D.

    1985-04-01

    This final report is submitted as part of the Green River Ambient Model Assessment (GRAMA) project conducted at the US Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the US Environmental Protection Agency. The GRAMA Program has, as its ultimate goal, the development of validated air quality models that can be applied to the complex terrain of the Green River Formation of western Colorado, eastern Utah and southern Wyoming. The Green River Formation is a geologic formation containing large reserves of oil shale, coal, and other natural resources. Development of these resources may lead to a degradation of the air quality of the region. Air quality models are needed immediately for planning and regulatory purposes to assess the magnitude of these regional impacts. This report documents one of the models being developed for this purpose within GRAMA - specifically a model to predict short averaging time (less than or equal to 24 h) pollutant concentrations resulting from the mesoscale transport of pollutant releases from multiple sources. MELSAR has not undergone any rigorous operational testing, sensitivity analyses, or validation studies. Testing and evaluation of the model are needed to gain a measure of confidence in the model's performance. This report consists of two volumes. This volume contains the Appendices, which include listings of the FORTRAN code and Volume 1 contains the model overview, technical description, and user's guide. 13 figs., 10 tabs.

  4. Mesoscale wind fluctuations over Danish waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vincent, C.L.

    2010-12-15

    Mesoscale wind fluctuations affect the large scale integration of wind power because they undermine the day-ahead predictability of wind speed and power production, and because they can result in large fluctuations in power generation that must be balanced using reserve power. Large fluctuations in generated power are a particular problem for offshore wind farms because the typically high concentration of turbines within a limited geographical area means that fluctuations can be correlated across large numbers of turbines. Furthermore, organised mesoscale structures that often form over water, such as convective rolls and cellular convection, have length scales of tens of kilometers, and can cause large wind fluctuations on a time scale of around an hour. This thesis is an exploration of the predictability of mesoscale wind fluctuations using observations from the world's first two large offshore wind farms - Horns Rev I in the North Sea, and Nysted in the Baltic Sea. The thesis begins with a climatological analysis of wind fluctuations on time scales of 1-10 hours at the two sites. A novel method for calculating conditional climatologies of spectral information is proposed, based on binning and averaging the time axis of the Hilbert spectrum. Results reveal clear patterns between wind fluctuations and locally observed meteorological conditions. The analysis is expanded by classifying wind fluctuations on time scales of 1-3 hours according to synoptic patterns, satellite pictures and wind classes. Results indicate that cold air outbreaks and open cellular convection are a significant contributor to mesoscale wind variability at Horns Rev. The predictability of mesoscale wind fluctuations is tested by implementing standard statistical models that relate local wind variability to parameters based on a large scale weather analysis. The models show some skill, but only achieve a 15% improvement on a persistence forecast. The possibility of explicitly modelling

  5. A high space-time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche region, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nord, Guillaume; Boudevillain, Brice; Berne, Alexis; Branger, Flora; Braud, Isabelle; Dramais, Guillaume; Gérard, Simon; Le Coz, Jérôme; Legoût, Cédric; Molinié, Gilles; Van Baelen, Joel; Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre; Andrieu, Julien; Aubert, Coralie; Calianno, Martin; Delrieu, Guy; Grazioli, Jacopo; Hachani, Sahar; Horner, Ivan; Huza, Jessica; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Raupach, Timothy H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Uber, Magdalena; Vincendon, Béatrice; Wijbrans, Annette

    2017-03-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 2011-31 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km2) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution ( ˜ km2, ˜ min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km2, 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100 m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Météo-France (including 2 m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10 m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested

  6. Using SST and land cover data from EO Missions for improved mesoscale modelling of the coastal zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume

    was to evaluate the uncertainty of the modelled wind in the coastal zone and further improve it. Moreover LIDAR measurements were used to evaluate the wind speed retrieval from high resolution SAR systems (Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X). The WRF model used a high-resolution satellite SST reanalysis product from...... be implemented in the meso-scale model to better represent the actual conditions in the study area. Such improvements are expected to strengthen the model’s ability to represent land- sea and air-sea interactions, the atmospheric stability and the local topographic features that partly affect the coastal zone......Existing wind measurements in near-shore and offshore areas are sparse and scarce, therefore simulations from state-of-the-art meso-scale models are used for wind resource predictions. In coastal and near-shore areas, models are inaccurate and uncertain, mainly because of numerical approximations...

  7. The HIRLAM fast radiation scheme for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rontu, Laura; Gleeson, Emily; Räisänen, Petri; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Savijärvi, Hannu; Hansen Sass, Bent

    2017-07-01

    This paper provides an overview of the HLRADIA shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) broadband radiation schemes used in the HIRLAM numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and available in the HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale NWP model. The advantage of broadband, over spectral, schemes is that they can be called more frequently within the model, without compromising on computational efficiency. In mesoscale models fast interactions between clouds and radiation and the surface and radiation can be of greater importance than accounting for the spectral details of clear-sky radiation; thus calling the routines more frequently can be of greater benefit than the deterioration due to loss of spectral details. Fast but physically based radiation parametrizations are expected to be valuable for high-resolution ensemble forecasting, because as well as the speed of their execution, they may provide realistic physical perturbations. Results from single-column diagnostic experiments based on CIRC benchmark cases and an evaluation of 10 years of radiation output from the FMI operational archive of HIRLAM forecasts indicate that HLRADIA performs sufficiently well with respect to the clear-sky downwelling SW and longwave LW fluxes at the surface. In general, HLRADIA tends to overestimate surface fluxes, with the exception of LW fluxes under cold and dry conditions. The most obvious overestimation of the surface SW flux was seen in the cloudy cases in the 10-year comparison; this bias may be related to using a cloud inhomogeneity correction, which was too large. According to the CIRC comparisons, the outgoing LW and SW fluxes at the top of atmosphere are mostly overestimated by HLRADIA and the net LW flux is underestimated above clouds. The absorption of SW radiation by the atmosphere seems to be underestimated and LW absorption seems to be overestimated. Despite these issues, the overall results are satisfying and work on the improvement of HLRADIA for the use in HARMONIE-AROME NWP system

  8. Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, Antonio; Ferraris, Luca; Gallus, William; Maugeri, Maurizio; Molini, Luca; Siccardi, Franco; Boni, Giorgio

    2017-05-01

    Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea (17 out of 56 members) as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Ligurian Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers, and even photographs, can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

  9. Mesoscale analysis of failure in quasi-brittle materials: comparison between lattice model and acoustic emission data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grégoire, David; Verdon, Laura; Lefort, Vincent; Grassl, Peter; Saliba, Jacqueline; Regoin, Jean-Pierre; Loukili, Ahmed; Pijaudier-Cabot, Gilles

    2015-10-25

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the development and the evolution of the fracture process zone during fracture and damage in quasi-brittle materials. A model taking into account the material details at the mesoscale is used to describe the failure process at the scale of the heterogeneities. This model is used to compute histograms of the relative distances between damaged points. These numerical results are compared with experimental data, where the damage evolution is monitored using acoustic emissions. Histograms of the relative distances between damage events in the numerical calculations and acoustic events in the experiments exhibit good agreement. It is shown that the mesoscale model provides relevant information from the point of view of both global responses and the local failure process. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Simulation of Wind-Driven Snow Redistribution at a High-Elevation Alpine Site Using a Meso-Scale Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Martin, E.; Masson, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim-Bouvet, F.; Prokop, A.; Durand, Y.; Lac, C.

    2012-12-01

    In alpine regions, blowing snow events strongly influence the temporal and spatial evolution of the snow depth distribution throughout the winter season. We recently developed a new simulation system to gain understanding on the complex processes that drive the redistribution of snow by the wind in complex terrain. This new system couples directly the detailed snow-pack model Crocus with the meso-scale atmospheric model Meso-NH. A blowing snow scheme allows Meso-NH to simulate the transport of snow particles in the atmosphere. We used the coupled system to study a blowing snow event with snowfall that occurred in February 2011 in the Grandes Rousses range (French Alps). Three nested domains at an horizontal resolution of 450, 150 and 50 m allow the model to simulate the complex 3D precipitation and wind fields around our experimental site (2720 m a.s.l.) during this 22-hour event. Wind-induced snow transport is activated over the domains of higher resolution (150 and 50 m). We firstly assessed the ability of the model to reproduce atmospheric flows at high resolution in alpine terrain using a large dataset of observations (meteorological data, vertical profile of wind speed). Simulated blowing snow fluxes are then compared with measurements from SPC and mechanical snow traps. Finally a map of snow erosion and accumulation produced by Terrestrial Laser measurements allows to evaluate the quality of the simulated snow depth redistribution.

  11. Short range forecasting of sea breeze generated thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center: A real-time experiment using a primitive equation mesoscale numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Schuh, Jerome A.; Moon, Dennis; Pielke, Roger A.; Cotton, William; Arritt, Raymond

    1987-01-01

    The operational efficiency of using guidance from a mesoscale numerical model to improve sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts at and around the Shuttle landing strip was assessed. The Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) model, developed as a sea breeze model, reveals a strong correlation between regions of mesoscale convergence and the triggering of sea breeze convection thunderstorms. The P3DM was modified to generate stability parameters familiar to the operational forecaster. In addition to the mesoscale fields of wind, vertical motion, moisture, temperature, a stability indicator, a combination of model-predicted K and Lifted Indices and the maximum grid cell vertical motion, were proposed and tested. Results of blind tests indicate that a forecaster, provided with guidance derived from model output, could improve local thunderstorm forecasts.

  12. A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

  13. Modelling study of mesoscale cyclogenesis over Ross Sea, Antarctica, on February 18, 1988

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stortini, M.; Morelli, S.; Marchesi, S. [Modena e Reggio Emilia Univ., Modena (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze dell' Ingegneria, Sez. Osservatorio Geofisico

    2000-04-01

    This paper examines the development of a summer event of mesoscale cyclogenesis off the coast of Victoria Land in the presence of katabatic winds, by means of numerical simulations. These refer to the period from 00 UTC 17 February to 00 UTC 19 February 1988 and were performed using the hydrostatic ETA (1993 version) limited area model with resolution 55 km x 55 km x 17 levels. The ETA model reproduces katabatic winds from Terra Nova Bay and a trough on the southwestern Ross Sea. A cyclonic vortex is simulated in the trough, even though it is weaker than the one present in the analysis initialized by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (Reading, United Kingdom). Idealized simulations with varied surface conditions were also performed. In particular, an ice-covered ocean acts to weaken the atmospheric phenomena, while a no-mountain simulation emphasizes the influence of the orography and the cold winds from the coast of Victoria Land on the mesocyclonic activity.

  14. Mesoscale model response to random, surface-based perturbations — A sea-breeze experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Miller, W. F.; Lee, T. J.

    1990-09-01

    The introduction into a mesoscale model of random (in space) variations in roughness length, or random (in space and time) surface perturbations of temperature and friction velocity, produces a measurable, but barely significant, response in the simulated flow dynamics of the lower atmosphere. The perturbations are an attempt to include the effects of sub-grid variability into the ensemble-mean parameterization schemes used in many numerical models. Their magnitude is set in our experiments by appeal to real-world observations of the spatial variations in roughness length and daytime surface temperature over the land on horizontal scales of one to several tens of kilometers. With sea-breeze simulations, comparisons of a number of realizations forced by roughness-length and surface-temperature perturbations with the standard simulation reveal no significant change in ensemble mean statistics, and only small changes in the sea-breeze vertical velocity. Changes in the updraft velocity for individual runs, of up to several cms-1 (compared to a mean of 14 cms-1), are directly the result of prefrontal temperature changes of 0.1 to 0.2K, produced by the random surface forcing. The correlation and magnitude of the changes are entirely consistent with a gravity-current interpretation of the sea breeze.

  15. Development of extended WRF variational data assimilation system (WRFDA) for WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.

    2018-06-01

    The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April-3 May 2008), Aila (23-26 May 2009) and Jal (4-8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system.

  16. Numerical modeling of a downwind-developing mesoscale convective system over the Masurian Lake District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wójcik Damian K.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological data concerning the severe convective system from the 21 August 2007 are analyzed in this study. Compiled information allows to understand the reason for the storm development and to identify its fundamental convective mode. Next, the EULAG model is utilized to perform an idealized test that shows a downwind–developing storm growth in an environment comparable to the one that was observed on the 21 August 2007 in the Masurian Lake District. Finally, the COSMO numerical weather prediction model is applied to reconstruct the storm development. The experiment is carried out for various computational grids having the horizontal grid length between 7.0 and 0.55 km. It turns out that the COSMO model is capable in simulating storms of that type. Since the model is used for operational weather forecasting in Poland the evaluation of this skill contributes to the increase of public safety.

  17. Mesoscale atmospheric modeling of the July 12, 1992 tritium release from the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fast, J.D.; O'Steen, B.L.; Addis, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    In August of 1991, the Environmental Transport Group (ETG) began the development of an advanced Emergency Response (ER) system based upon the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This model simulates the three-dimensional, time-dependent, flow field and thermodynamic structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). A companion Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) simulates contaminant transport based on the flow and turbulence fields generated by RAMS. This paper describes the performance of the advanced ER system in predicting transport and diffusion near the SRS when compared to meteorological and sampling data taken during the July 12, 1992 tritium release. Since PUFF/PLUME and 2DPUF are two Weather INformation and Display (WIND) System atmospheric models that were used to predict the transport and diffusion of the plume at the time of the release, the results from the advanced ER system are also compared to those produced by PUFF/PLUME and 2DPUF

  18. Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Mittermaier

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

    The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

  19. Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; DeMaria, Mark; Li, J.-L. F.; Cheung, S.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

  20. A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

    2018-04-01

    To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

  1. Quantitative modelling of the closure of meso-scale parallel currents in the nightside ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marchaudon

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available On 12 January 2000, during a northward IMF period, two successive conjunctions occur between the CUTLASS SuperDARN radar pair and the two satellites Ørsted and FAST. This situation is used to describe and model the electrodynamic of a nightside meso-scale arc associated with a convection shear. Three field-aligned current sheets, one upward and two downward on both sides, are observed. Based on the measurements of the parallel currents and either the conductance or the electric field profile, a model of the ionospheric current closure is developed along each satellite orbit. This model is one-dimensional, in a first attempt and a two-dimensional model is tested for the Ørsted case. These models allow one to quantify the balance between electric field gradients and ionospheric conductance gradients in the closure of the field-aligned currents. These radar and satellite data are also combined with images from Polar-UVI, allowing for a description of the time evolution of the arc between the two satellite passes. The arc is very dynamic, in spite of quiet solar wind conditions. Periodic enhancements of the convection and of electron precipitation associated with the arc are observed, probably associated with quasi-periodic injections of particles due to reconnection in the magnetotail. Also, a northward shift and a reorganisation of the precipitation pattern are observed, together with a southward shift of the convection shear. Key words. Ionosphere (auroral ionosphere; electric fields and currents; particle precipitation – Magnetospheric physics (magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions

  2. Evaluation of the performance of a meso-scale NWP model to forecast solar irradiance on Reunion Island for photovoltaic power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalecinski, Natacha; Haeffelin, Martial; Badosa, Jordi; Periard, Christophe

    2013-04-01

    Solar photovoltaic power is a predominant source of electrical power on Reunion Island, regularly providing near 30% of electrical power demand for a few hours per day. However solar power on Reunion Island is strongly modulated by clouds in small temporal and spatial scales. Today regional regulations require that new solar photovoltaic plants be combined with storage systems to reduce electrical power fluctuations on the grid. Hence cloud and solar irradiance forecasting becomes an important tool to help optimize the operation of new solar photovoltaic plants on Reunion Island. Reunion Island, located in the South West of the Indian Ocean, is exposed to persistent trade winds, most of all in winter. In summer, the southward motion of the ITCZ brings atmospheric instabilities on the island and weakens trade winds. This context together with the complex topography of Reunion Island, which is about 60 km wide, with two high summits (3070 and 2512 m) connected by a 1500 m plateau, makes cloudiness very heterogeneous. High cloudiness variability is found between mountain and coastal areas and between the windward, leeward and lateral regions defined with respect to the synoptic wind direction. A detailed study of local dynamics variability is necessary to better understand cloud life cycles around the island. In the presented work, our approach to explore the short-term solar irradiance forecast at local scales is to use the deterministic output from a meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, AROME, developed by Meteo France. To start we evaluate the performance of the deterministic forecast from AROME by using meteorological measurements from 21 meteorological ground stations widely spread around the island (and with altitudes from 8 to 2245 m). Ground measurements include solar irradiation, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, air temperature, precipitation and pressure. Secondly we study in the model the local dynamics and thermodynamics that

  3. Comparative Evaluation of the Impact of WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW Meteorology on CMAQ Simulations for O3 and Related Species During the 2006 TexAQS/GoMACCS Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, impact of meteorology derived from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Non–hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and WRF–Advanced Research WRF (ARW) meteorological models on the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulations for ozone and its related prec...

  4. Validation of satellite SAR offshore wind speed maps to in-situ data, microscala and mesoscale model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasager, C B; Astrup, P; Barthelmie, R; Dellwik, E; Hoffmann Joergensen, B; Gylling Mortensen, N; Nielsen, M; Pryor, S; Rathmann, O

    2002-05-01

    A validation study has been performed in order to investigate the precision and accuracy of the satellite-derived ERS-2 SAR wind products in offshore regions. The overall project goal is to develop a method for utilizing the satellite wind speed maps for offshore wind resources, e.g. in future planning of offshore wind farms. The report describes the validation analysis in detail for three sites in Denmark, Italy and Egypt. The site in Norway is analyzed by the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NERSC). Wind speed maps and wind direction maps from Earth Observation data recorded by the ERS-2 SAR satellite have been obtained from the NERSC. For the Danish site the wind speed and wind direction maps have been compared to in-situ observations from a met-mast at Horns Rev in the North Sea located 14 km offshore. The SAR wind speeds have been area-averaged by simple and advanced footprint modelling, ie. the upwind conditions to the meteorological mast are explicitly averaged in the SAR wind speed maps before comparison. The comparison results are very promising with a standard error of {+-} 0.61 m s{sup -1}, a bias {approx}2 m s{sup -1} and R{sup 2} {approx}0.88 between in-situ wind speed observations and SAR footprint averaged values at 10 m level. Wind speeds predicted by the local scale model LINCOM and the mesoscale model KAMM2 have been compared to the spatial variations in the SAR wind speed maps. The finding is a good correspondence between SAR observations and model results. Near the coast is an 800 m wide band in which the SAR wind speed observations have a strong negative bias. The bathymetry of Horns Rev combined with tidal currents give rise to bias in the SAR wind speed maps near areas of shallow, complex bottom topography in some cases. A total of 16 cases were analyzed for Horns Rev. For Maddalena in Italy five cases were analyzed. At the Italian site the SAR wind speed maps were compared to WAsP and KAMM2 model results. The WAsP model

  5. Complementary Use of Glider Data, Altimetry, and Model for Exploring Mesoscale Eddies in the Tropical Pacific Solomon Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdeau, L.; Verron, J.; Chaigneau, A.; Cravatte, S.; Kessler, W.

    2017-11-01

    Mesoscale activity is an important component of the Solomon Sea circulation that interacts with the energetic low-latitude western boundary currents of the South Tropical Pacific Ocean carrying waters of subtropical origin before joining the equatorial Pacific. Mixing associated with mesoscale activity could explain water mass transformation observed in the Solomon Sea that likely impacts El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics. This study makes synergetic use of glider data, altimetry, and high-resolution model for exploring mesoscale eddies, especially their vertical structures, and their role on the Solomon Sea circulation. The description of individual eddies observed by altimetry and gliders provides the first elements to characterize the 3-D structure of these tropical eddies, and confirms the usefulness of the model to access a more universal view of such eddies. Mesoscale eddies appear to have a vertical extension limited to the Surface Waters (SW) and the Upper Thermocline Water (UTW), i.e., the first 140-150 m depth. Most of the eddies are nonlinear, meaning that eddies can trap and transport water properties. But they weakly interact with the deep New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent that is a key piece of the equatorial circulation. Anticyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to advect salty and warm SW coming from the intrusion of equatorial Pacific waters at Solomon Strait, and to impact the characteristics of the New Guinea Coastal Current. Cyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to transport South Pacific Tropical Water (SPTW) anomalies from the North Vanuatu Jet and to erode by diapycnal mixing the high SPTW salinity.

  6. Development and application of a chemistry mechanism for mesoscale simulations of the troposphere and lower stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippert, E.; Hendricks, J.; Petry, H. [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    A new chemical mechanism is applied for mesoscale simulations of the impact of aircraft exhausts on the atmospheric composition. The temporal and spatial variation of the tropopause height is associated with a change of the trace gas composition in these heights. Box and three dimensional mesoscale model studies show that the conversion of aircraft exhausts depends strongly on the cruise heights as well as on the location of release in relation to the tropopause. The impact of aircraft emissions on ozone is strongly dependent on the individual meteorological situation. A rising of the tropopause height within a few days results in a strong increase of ozone caused by aircraft emissions. (author) 12 refs.

  7. Development and application of a chemistry mechanism for mesoscale simulations of the troposphere and lower stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippert, E; Hendricks, J; Petry, H [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

    1998-12-31

    A new chemical mechanism is applied for mesoscale simulations of the impact of aircraft exhausts on the atmospheric composition. The temporal and spatial variation of the tropopause height is associated with a change of the trace gas composition in these heights. Box and three dimensional mesoscale model studies show that the conversion of aircraft exhausts depends strongly on the cruise heights as well as on the location of release in relation to the tropopause. The impact of aircraft emissions on ozone is strongly dependent on the individual meteorological situation. A rising of the tropopause height within a few days results in a strong increase of ozone caused by aircraft emissions. (author) 12 refs.

  8. Improved meteorology from an updated WRF/CMAQ modeling system with MODIS vegetation and albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realistic vegetation characteristics and phenology from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products improve the simulation for the meteorology and air quality modeling system WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Qual...

  9. Surface Energy Balance in Jakarta and Neighboring Regions As Simulated Using Fifth Mesoscale Model (MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present research was to assess the surface energy balance particularly in terms of the computed surface energy and radiation balance and the development of boundary layer over Jakarta and Neighboring Regions (JNR by means of numerical model of fifth generation of Mesoscale Model (MM5. The MM5 with four domains of 9 kilometers in spatial resolution presenting the outermost and the innermost of JNR is utilized. The research focuses on the third and fourth domains covering the entire JNR. The description between radiation and energy balance at the surface is obtained from the model. The result showed that energy balance is higher in the city area during daytime. Meanwhile, energy components, e.g., surface sensible and latent heat flux showed that at the sea and in the city areas were higher than other areas. Moreover, ground flux showed eastern region was higher than others. In general, radiation and energy balance was higher in the daytime and lower in the nighttime for all regions. The calculation of Bowen Ratio, the ratio of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, was also higher in the city area, reflecting the dominations of urban and built-up land in the region. Meanwhile, Bowen Ratio in the rural area dominated by irrigated cropland was lower. It is consistent with changes of land cover properties, e.g. albedo, soil moisture, and thermal characteristics. In addition, the boundary layer is also higher in the city. Meanwhile western region dominated by suburban showed higher boundary layer instead of eastern region.

  10. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport from equatorial Southeast Asian Maritime Continent to the Philippines: First comparison of ensemble analysis with in situ observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Cui; Wang, Jun; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Posselt, Derek J.; Xian, Peng; Hyer, Edward

    2017-05-01

    -Chem simulations in describing smoke transport on 20 September 2011, suggesting the challenges to model tropical meteorology at mesoscale and finer scale.

  11. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H; Ebel, A; Franzkowiak, V; Hendricks, J; Lippert, E; Moellhoff, M [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1998-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  12. Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    1997-12-31

    The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

  13. Meso-Scale Modeling of Spall in a Heterogeneous Two-Phase Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Springer, Harry Keo [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2008-07-11

    The influence of the heterogeneous second-phase particle structure and applied loading conditions on the ductile spall response of a model two-phase material was investigated. Quantitative metallography, three-dimensional (3D) meso-scale simulations (MSS), and small-scale spall experiments provided the foundation for this study. Nodular ductile iron (NDI) was selected as the model two-phase material for this study because it contains a large and readily identifiable second- phase particle population. Second-phase particles serve as the primary void nucleation sites in NDI and are, therefore, central to its ductile spall response. A mathematical model was developed for the NDI second-phase volume fraction that accounted for the non-uniform particle size and spacing distributions within the framework of a length-scale dependent Gaussian probability distribution function (PDF). This model was based on novel multiscale sampling measurements. A methodology was also developed for the computer generation of representative particle structures based on their mathematical description, enabling 3D MSS. MSS were used to investigate the effects of second-phase particle volume fraction and particle size, loading conditions, and physical domain size of simulation on the ductile spall response of a model two-phase material. MSS results reinforce existing model predictions, where the spall strength metric (SSM) logarithmically decreases with increasing particle volume fraction. While SSM predictions are nearly independent of applied load conditions at lower loading rates, which is consistent with previous studies, loading dependencies are observed at higher loading rates. There is also a logarithmic decrease in SSM for increasing (initial) void size, as well. A model was developed to account for the effects of loading rate, particle size, matrix sound-speed, and, in the NDI-specific case, the probabilistic particle volume fraction model. Small-scale spall experiments were designed

  14. Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, M.; Colacino, M.; Dalu, G. A.; Piervitali, E.; Ye, Z.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper the Authors discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the peninsula of Calabria, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., 'Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria', edited by A. Guerrini, in the series P. S., 'Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno' (CNR, Rome) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper

  15. Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldi, M.; Colacino, M.; Dalu, G. A.; Piervitali, E.; Ye, Z. [CNR, Rome (Italy). Ist. di Fisica dell`Atmosfera

    1998-07-01

    In this paper the Authors discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the peninsula of Calabria, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., `Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria`, edited by A. Guerrini, in the series P. S., `Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno` (CNR, Rome) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper.

  16. Ensemble modelling of nitrogen fluxes: data fusion for a Swedish meso-scale catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Exbrayat

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Model predictions of biogeochemical fluxes at the landscape scale are highly uncertain, both with respect to stochastic (parameter and structural uncertainty. In this study 5 different models (LASCAM, LASCAM-S, a self-developed tool, SWAT and HBV-N-D designed to simulate hydrological fluxes as well as mobilisation and transport of one or several nitrogen species were applied to the mesoscale River Fyris catchment in mid-eastern Sweden.

    Hydrological calibration against 5 years of recorded daily discharge at two stations gave highly variable results with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE ranging between 0.48 and 0.83. Using the calibrated hydrological parameter sets, the parameter uncertainty linked to the nitrogen parameters was explored in order to cover the range of possible predictions of exported loads for 3 nitrogen species: nitrate (NO3, ammonium (NH4 and total nitrogen (Tot-N. For each model and each nitrogen species, predictions were ranked in two different ways according to the performance indicated by two different goodness-of-fit measures: the coefficient of determination R2 and the root mean square error RMSE. A total of 2160 deterministic Single Model Ensembles (SME was generated using an increasing number of members (from the 2 best to the 10 best single predictions. Finally the best SME for each model, nitrogen species and discharge station were selected and merged into 330 different Multi-Model Ensembles (MME. The evolution of changes in R2 and RMSE was used as a performance descriptor of the ensemble procedure.

    In each studied case, numerous ensemble merging schemes were identified which outperformed any of their members. Improvement rates were generally higher when worse members were introduced. The highest improvements were achieved for the nitrogen SMEs compiled with multiple linear regression models with R2 selected members, which

  17. Modelling microphysical and meteorological controls on precipitation and cloud cellular structures in Southeast Pacific stratocumulus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Microphysical and meteorological controls on the formation of open and closed cellular structures in the Southeast Pacific are explored using model simulations based on aircraft observations during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx. The effectiveness of factors such as boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations, surface heat and moisture fluxes, large-scale vertical motion and solar heating in promoting drizzle and open cell formation for prescribed aerosol number concentrations is explored. For the case considered, drizzle and subsequent open cell formation over a broad region are more sensitive to the observed boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations (+0.9 g kg−1; −1 K than to a five-fold decrease in aerosol number concentration (150 vs. 30 mg−1. When embedding the perturbations in closed cells, local drizzle and pockets of open cell (POC formation respond faster to the aerosol reduction than to the moisture increase, but the latter generates stronger and more persistent drizzle. A local negative perturbation in temperature drives a mesoscale circulation that prevents local drizzle formation but promotes it in a remote area where lower-level horizontal transport of moisture is blocked and converges to enhance liquid water path. This represents a potential mechanism for POC formation in the Southeast Pacific stratocumulus region whereby the circulation is triggered by strong precipitation in adjacent broad regions of open cells. A simulation that attempts to mimic the influence of a coastally induced upsidence wave results in an increase in cloud water but this alone is insufficient to initiate drizzle. An increase of surface sensible heat flux is also effective in triggering local drizzle and POC formation.

    Both open and closed cells simulated with observed initial conditions exhibit distinct diurnal variations in cloud properties. A

  18. Meteorological monitoring for dose assessment and emergency response modeling - how much is enough?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, C.S.

    1990-01-01

    Individuals responsible for emergency response or environmental/dose assessment routinely ask if there are enough meteorological data to adequately support their objectives. The answer requires detailed consideration of the intended applications, capabilities of the atmospheric dispersion model data, pollutant release characteristics, terrain in the modeling region, and size and distribution of the human population in the modeling domain. The meteorologist's detailed knowledge of, and experience in, studying atmospheric transport and diffusion can assist in determining the appropriate level of meteorological monitoring

  19. How does the Redi parameter for mesoscale mixing impact global climate in an Earth System Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradal, Marie-Aude; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2014-09-01

    A coupled climate model is used to examine the impact of an increase in the mixing due to mesoscale eddies on the global climate system. A sixfold increase in the Redi mixing coefficient ARedi, which is within the admissible range of variation, has the overall effect of warming the global-mean surface air and sea surface temperatures by more than 1°C. Locally, sea surface temperatures increase by up to 7°C in the North Pacific and by up to 4°C in the Southern Ocean, with corresponding impacts on the ice concentration and ice extent in polar regions. However, it is not clear that the changes in heat transport from tropics to poles associated with changing this coefficient are primarily responsible for these changes. We found that the changes in the transport of heat are often much smaller than changes in long-wave trapping and short-wave absorption. Additionally, changes in the advective and diffusive transport of heat toward the poles often oppose each other. However, we note that the poleward transport of salt increases near the surface as ARedi increases. We suggest a causal chain in which enhanced eddy stirring leads to increased high-latitude surface salinity reducing salt stratification and water column stability and enhancing convection, triggering two feedback loops. In one, deeper convection prevents sea ice formation, which decreases albedo, which increases SW absorption, further increasing SST and decreasing sea ice formation. In the other, increased SST and reduced sea ice allow for more water vapor in the atmosphere, trapping long-wave radiation. Destratifying the polar regions is thus a potential way in which changes in ocean circulation might warm the planet.

  20. High resolution modelling results of the wind flow over Canary Islands during the meteorological situation of the extratropical storm Delta (28–30 November 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Baldasano

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available On 28–29 November 2005 an extratropical storm affected the Canary Islands causing significant damage related to high average wind speeds and intense gusts over some islands of the archipelago. Delta was the twenty-sixth tropical or subtropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It represents an unusual meteorological phenomenon for that region, and its impacts were underestimated by the different operational meteorological forecasts during the previous days of the arrival of the low near Canary Islands. The aim of this study is to reproduce the local effects of the flow that were observed over the Canary Islands during the travel of the Delta storm near the region using high-resolution mesoscale meteorological simulations. The Advanced Research Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW is applied at 9, 3 and 1 km horizontal resolution using ECMWF forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. The high-resolution simulation will outline the main features that contributed to the high wind speeds observed in the archipelago. Variations in vertical static stability, vertical windshear and the intense synoptic winds of the southwestern part of Delta with a warm core at 850 hPa were the main characteristics that contributed to the development and amplification of intense gravity waves while the large-scale flow interacted with the complex topography of the islands.

  1. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on the Neutron Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-22

    about 2% between day and night on a given day [2]. In the 1960s, the launch of satellites allowed scientists to measure the sun’s cosmic rays outside...hour, a 20% variation, over five months of data collection with large variation between days . Meteorological data were collected with two commercially...contributes to the formation of the neutron flux. To account for the earth’s magnetic field, scientists have done extensive three-dimensional analysis

  2. Reference Evapotranspiration Retrievals from a Mesoscale Model Based Weather Variables for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant K. Srivastava

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo and soil moisture deficit (SMD are vital for understanding the hydrological processes, particularly in the context of sustainable water use efficiency in the globe. Precise estimation of ETo and SMD are required for developing appropriate forecasting systems, in hydrological modeling and also in precision agriculture. In this study, the surface temperature downscaled from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to estimate ETo using the boundary conditions that are provided by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. In order to understand the performance, the Hamon’s method is employed to estimate the ETo using the temperature from meteorological station and WRF derived variables. After estimating the ETo, a range of linear and non-linear models is utilized to retrieve SMD. The performance statistics such as RMSE, %Bias, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE indicates that the exponential model (RMSE = 0.226; %Bias = −0.077; NSE = 0.616 is efficient for SMD estimation by using the Observed ETo in comparison to the other linear and non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.019–0.667; %Bias range = 2.821–6.894; NSE = 0.013–0.419 used in this study. On the other hand, in the scenario where SMD is estimated using WRF downscaled meteorological variables based ETo, the linear model is found promising (RMSE = 0.017; %Bias = 5.280; NSE = 0.448 as compared to the non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.022–0.707; %Bias range = −0.207–−6.088; NSE range = 0.013–0.149. Our findings also suggest that all the models are performing better during the growing season (RMSE range = 0.024–0.025; %Bias range = −4.982–−3.431; r = 0.245–0.281 than the non−growing season (RMSE range = 0.011–0.12; %Bias range = 33.073–32.701; r = 0.161–0.244 for SMD estimation.

  3. Selection of some meteorological fluctuations to create forecasting models of NO2 in Jinamar (Gran Canarias)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vera Castellano, A.; Lopez Cancio, J.; Corujo Jimenez, J.

    1997-01-01

    The study of meteorological fluctuations that have been reported in urban and semi urban zones has reached in the last years an increasing importance to environmental pollution researches because its knowledge permits the elaboration of empirical models able to predict periods of potential pollution in these zones. In this work, it has been made use of the data on concentrations of NO 2 supplied by an chemiluminescent analyser and the meteorological data provided by a meteorological station located in the surroundings of the analyser, in order to determine the variables that have taken part in the elaboration of a forecasting model of this pollutant in Jinamar Valley. (Author) 15 refs

  4. Optimizing Time Intervals of Meteorological Data Used with Atmospheric Dose Modeling at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpkins, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    Measured tritium oxide concentrations in air have been compared with calculated values using routine release Gaussian plume models for different time intervals of meteorological data. These comparisons determined an optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose models at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Meteorological data of varying time intervals (1-yr to 10-yr) were used for the comparison. Insignificant differences are seen in using a one-year database as opposed to a five-year database. Use of a ten-year database results in slightly more conservative results. For meteorological databases of length one to five years the mean ratio of predicted to measured tritium oxide concentrations is approximately 1.25 whereas for the ten-year meteorological database the ration is closer to 1.35. Currently at the Savannah River Site a meteorological database of five years duration is used for all dose models. This study suggests no substantially improved accuracy using meteorological files of shorter or longer time intervals

  5. Do we need full mesoscale models to simulate the urban heat island? A study over the city of Barcelona.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    As most of the population lives in urban environments, the simulation of the urban climate has become an important part of the global climate change impact assessment. However, due to the high resolution required, these simulations demand a large amount of computational resources. Here we present a comparison between a simplified fast urban climate model (UrbClim) and a widely used full mesoscale model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, over the city of Barcelona. In order to check the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, both simulations were compared with station data and with land surface temperature observations retrieved by satellites, focusing on the urban heat island. The effect of changing the UrbClim boundary conditions was studied too, by using low resolution global reanalysis data (70 km) and a higher resolution forecast model (15 km). Finally, a strict comparison of the computational resources consumed by both models was carried out. Results show that, generally, the performance of the simple model is comparable to or better than the mesoscale model. The exception are the winds and the day-to-day correlation in the reanalysis driven run, but these problems disappear when taking the boundary conditions from a higher resolution global model. UrbClim was found to run 133 times faster than WRF, using 4x times higher resolution and, thus, it is an efficient solution for running long climate change simulations over large city ensembles.

  6. Mesoscale models for stacking faults, deformation twins and martensitic transformations: Linking atomistics to continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibey, Sandeep A.

    We present a hierarchical approach that spans multiple length scales to describe defect formation---in particular, formation of stacking faults (SFs) and deformation twins---in fcc crystals. We link the energy pathways (calculated here via ab initio density functional theory, DFT) associated with formation of stacking faults and twins to corresponding heterogeneous defect nucleation models (described through mesoscale dislocation mechanics). Through the generalized Peieirls-Nabarro model, we first correlate the width of intrinsic SFs in fcc alloy systems to their nucleation pathways called generalized stacking fault energies (GSFE). We then establish a qualitative dependence of twinning tendency in fee metals and alloys---specifically, in pure Cu and dilute Cu-xAl (x= 5.0 and 8.3 at.%)---on their twin-energy pathways called the generalized planar fault energies (GPFE). We also link the twinning behavior of Cu-Al alloys to their electronic structure by determining the effect of solute Al on the valence charge density redistribution at the SF through ab initio DFT. Further, while several efforts have been undertaken to incorporate twinning for predicting stress-strain response of fcc materials, a fundamental law for critical twinning stress has not yet emerged. We resolve this long-standing issue by linking quantitatively the twin-energy pathways (GPFE) obtained via ab initio DFT to heterogeneous, dislocation-based twin nucleation models. We establish an analytical expression that quantitatively predicts the critical twinning stress in fcc metals in agreement with experiments without requiring any empiricism at any length scale. Our theory connects twinning stress to twin-energy pathways and predicts a monotonic relation between stress and unstable twin stacking fault energy revealing the physics of twinning. We further demonstrate that the theory holds for fcc alloys as well. Our theory inherently accounts for directional nature of twinning which available

  7. Numerical simulation of meteorological conditions for peak pollution in Paris

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carissimo, B. [Electricite de France (EDF), 78 - Chatou (France). Direction des Etudes et Recherches

    1997-06-01

    Results obtained on the simulation of meteorological conditions during two episodes of peak pollution in Paris are presented, one in the winter, the other in the summer. The A3UR air quality modelling system is first described followed by the MERCURE mesoscale meteorological model. The conditions of simulation are described. The results obtained on these two causes show satisfactory agreement, for example on the magnitude of the urban heat island which is correctly reproduced. In this study, several areas of progress have been identified: improvement of the altitude measurement network around cities, the simulation of light wind conditions and the simulation of formation and dissipation of fog. (author) 24 refs.

  8. Meteorological data assimilation for real-time emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, G.; Chan, S.T.

    1996-11-01

    The US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) provides real-time dose assessments of airborne pollutant releases. Diverse data assimilation techniques are required to meet the needs of a new generation of ARAC models and to take advantage of the rapidly expanding availability of meteorological data. We are developing a hierarchy of algorithms to provide gridded meteorological fields which can be used to drive dispersion codes or to provide initial fields for mesoscale models. Data to be processed include winds, temperature, moisture, and turbulence

  9. Application and comparison of the SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff model in meso-scale watershed and field scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, L.; Wang, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) based hydrologic model, has widely been used for agricultural watersheds in recent years. However, there will be relative error when applying it due to differentiation of geographical and climatological conditions. This paper introduces a more adaptable and propagable model based on the modified SCS-CN method, which specializes into two different scale cases of research regions. Combining the typical conditions of the Zhanghe irrigation district in southern part of China, such as hydrometeorologic conditions and surface conditions, SCS-CN based models were established. The Xinbu-Qiao River basin (area =1207 km2) and the Tuanlin runoff test area (area =2.87 km2)were taken as the study areas of basin scale and field scale in Zhanghe irrigation district. Applications were extended from ordinary meso-scale watershed to field scale in Zhanghe paddy field-dominated irrigated . Based on actual measurement data of land use, soil classification, hydrology and meteorology, quantitative evaluation and modifications for two coefficients, i.e. preceding loss and runoff curve, were proposed with corresponding models, table of CN values for different landuse and AMC(antecedent moisture condition) grading standard fitting for research cases were proposed. The simulation precision was increased by putting forward a 12h unit hydrograph of the field area, and 12h unit hydrograph were simplified. Comparison between different scales show that it’s more effectively to use SCS-CN model on field scale after parameters calibrated in basin scale These results can help discovering the rainfall-runoff rule in the district. Differences of established SCS-CN model's parameters between the two study regions are also considered. Varied forms of landuse and impacts of human activities were the important factors which can impact the rainfall-runoff relations in Zhanghe irrigation district.

  10. Assimilation of low-level wind in a high-resolution mesoscale model using the back and forth nudging algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-François Mahfouf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a new data assimilation algorithm called back and forth nudging (BFN is evaluated using a high-resolution numerical mesoscale model and simulated wind observations in the boundary layer. This new algorithm, of interest for the assimilation of high-frequency observations provided by ground-based active remote-sensing instruments, is straightforward to implement in a realistic atmospheric model. The convergence towards a steady-state profile can be achieved after five iterations of the BFN algorithm, and the algorithm provides an improved solution with respect to direct nudging. It is shown that the contribution of the nudging term does not dominate over other model physical and dynamical tendencies. Moreover, by running backward integrations with an adiabatic version of the model, the nudging coefficients do not need to be increased in order to stabilise the numerical equations. The ability of BFN to produce model changes upstream from the observations, in a similar way to 4-D-Var assimilation systems, is demonstrated. The capacity of the model to adjust to rapid changes in wind direction with the BFN is a first encouraging step, for example, to improve the detection and prediction of low-level wind shear phenomena through high-resolution mesoscale modelling over airports.

  11. Mesoscale modeling of the water vapor cycle at Mawrth Vallis: a Mars2020 and ExoMars exploration rovers high-priority landing site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-García, Jorge

    2017-04-01

    Introduction: The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) was used to predict meteorological conditions that are likely to be encountered by the Mars 2020 (NASA) Rover at several of their respective proposed landing sites during entry, descent, and landing at Ls5 [1] and by the ExoMars (ESA) Rover at one of the final landing sites. MRAMS is ideally suited for this type of investigation; the model is explicitly designed to simu-late Mars' atmospheric circulations at the mesoscale and smaller with realistic, high-resolution surface proper-ties [2, 3]. One of the sights studied for both rovers was Mawrth Vallis (MV), an ancient water outflow channel with light colored clay-rich rocks in the mid-latitude north hemisphere (Oxia Palus quadrangle). MV is the northernmost of the Mars2020 and ExoMars landing sites and the closest to the northern polar cap water source. The primary source of water vapor to the atmosphere is the northern polar cap during the northern summer. In order to highlight MV habitability implications, additional numerical experiments at Ls90, 140 and 180, highest column abundance of water vapor is found over MV [4], were performed to study how the atmospheric circulation connects MV with the polar water source. Once the winter CO2 retreats, the underlying polar water ice is exposed and begins to sublimate. The water is transported equatorward where it is manifested in the tropical aphelion cloud belt. If transport is assumed to be the result of the summer Hadley Cell, then the polar water is carried aloft in the northern high latitude rising branch before moving equatorward and eventually toward the southern high latitudes. Thus, the mean meridional summer circulation precludes a direct water vapor connection between MV and the polar source. Around the equinoxes (Ls0 and Ls180), there is a brief transition period where the rising branch quickly crosses from one hemisphere into the other as it migrates to its more typical solstitial location

  12. Meso-Scale Modelling of Deformation, Damage and Failure in Dual Phase Steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari Sarraf, Iman

    Advanced high strength steels (AHSS), such as dual phase (DP) and transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) steels, offer high ductility, formability, and strength, as well as high strength-to-weight ratio and improved crash resistance. Dual phase steels belong to a family of high strength grades which consist of martensite, responsible for strengthening, distributed in a ductile ferrite matrix which accommodates the deformation throughout the forming process. It has been shown that the predominant damage mechanism and failure in DP steels depends on the ferrite and martensite grain sizes and their morphology, and can range from a mixture of brittle and ductile rupture to completely ductile rupture in a quasi-static uniaxial tension test. In this study, a hybrid finite element cellular automata model, initially proposed by Anton Shterenlikht (2003), was developed to evaluate the forming behaviour and predict the onset of instability and damage evolution in a dual phase steel. In this model, the finite element constitutive model is used to represent macro-level strain gradients and a damage variable, and two different cell arrays are designed to represent the ductile and brittle fracture modes in meso-scale. In the FE part of the model, a modified Rousselier ductile damage model is developed to account for nucleation, growth and coalescence of voids. Also, several rate-dependent hardening models were developed and evaluated to describe the work hardening flow curve of DP600. Based on statistical analysis and simulation results, a modified Johnson-Cook (JC) model and a multiplicative combination of the Voce-modified JC functions were found to be the most accurate hardening models. The developed models were then implemented in a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) for ABAQUS/Explicit finite element simulation software to simulate uniaxial tension tests at strain rates ranging from 0.001 1/s to 1000 1/s, Marciniak tests, and electrohydraulic free-forming (EHFF

  13. Development of a prototype mesoscale computer model incorporating treatment of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apsimon, H.M.; Goddard, A.J.H.; Kitson, K.; Fawcett, M.

    1985-01-01

    More sophisticated models are now available to simulate dispersal of accidental radioactive releases to the atmosphere; these use mass-consistent windfields and attempt allowance for site-specific topographical features. Our aim has been to examine these techniques critically, develop where possible, and assess limitations and accuracy. The resulting windfield model WAFT uses efficient numerical techniques with improved orographic resolution and treatment of meteorological conditions. Time integrated air concentrations, dry and wet deposition are derived from TOMCATS, which applies Monte-Carlo techniques to an assembly of pseudo-particles representing the release, with specific attention to the role of large eddies and evolving inhomogeneous rainfields. These models have been assessed by application to hypothetical releases in complex terrain using data which would have been available in the event of an accident, and undertaking sensitivity studies. It is concluded that there is considerable uncertainty in results produced by such models; although they may be useful in post-facto analysis, such limitations cast doubt on their advantages relative to simpler techniques, with more modest requirements, during an actual emergency. (author)

  14. Mesoscale modelling methodology based on nudging to increase accuracy in WRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mylonas Dirdiris, Markos; Barbouchi, Sami; Hermmann, Hugo

    2016-04-01

    The offshore wind energy has recently become a rapidly growing renewable energy resource worldwide, with several offshore wind projects in development in different planning stages. Despite of this, a better understanding of the atmospheric interaction within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is needed in order to contribute to a better energy capture and cost-effectiveness. Light has been thrown in observational nudging as it has recently become an innovative method to increase the accuracy of wind flow modelling. This particular study focuses on the observational nudging capability of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and ways the uncertainty of wind flow modelling in the wind resource assessment (WRA) can be reduced. Finally, an alternative way to calculate the model uncertainty is pinpointed. Approach WRF mesoscale model will be nudged with observations from FINO3 at three different heights. The model simulations with and without applying observational nudging will be verified against FINO1 measurement data at 100m. In order to evaluate the observational nudging capability of WRF two ways to derive the model uncertainty will be described: one global uncertainty and an uncertainty per wind speed bin derived using the recommended practice of the IEA in order to link the model uncertainty to a wind energy production uncertainty. This study assesses the observational data assimilation capability of WRF model within the same vertical gridded atmospheric column. The principal aim is to investigate whether having observations up to one height could improve the simulation at a higher vertical level. The study will use objective analysis implementing a Cress-man scheme interpolation to interpolate the observation in time and in sp ace (keeping the horizontal component constant) to the gridded analysis. Then the WRF model core will incorporate the interpolated variables to the "first guess" to develop a nudged simulation. Consequently, WRF with and without

  15. On the influence of temporal and spatial resolution of aircraft emission inventories for mesoscale modeling of pollutant dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzkowiak, V.; Petry, H.; Ebel, A. [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    The sensitivity of a mesoscale chemistry transport model to the temporal and spatial resolution of aircraft emission inventories is evaluated. A statistical analysis of air traffic in the North-Atlantic flight corridor is carried out showing a highly variable, fine structured spatial distribution and a pronounced daily variation. Sensitivity studies comparing different emission scenarios reveal a strong dependency to the emission time and location of both transport and response in chemical formation of subsequent products. The introduction of a pronounced daily variation leads to a 30% higher ozone production in comparison to uniformly distributed emissions. (author) 9 refs.

  16. On the influence of temporal and spatial resolution of aircraft emission inventories for mesoscale modeling of pollutant dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franzkowiak, V; Petry, H; Ebel, A [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

    1998-12-31

    The sensitivity of a mesoscale chemistry transport model to the temporal and spatial resolution of aircraft emission inventories is evaluated. A statistical analysis of air traffic in the North-Atlantic flight corridor is carried out showing a highly variable, fine structured spatial distribution and a pronounced daily variation. Sensitivity studies comparing different emission scenarios reveal a strong dependency to the emission time and location of both transport and response in chemical formation of subsequent products. The introduction of a pronounced daily variation leads to a 30% higher ozone production in comparison to uniformly distributed emissions. (author) 9 refs.

  17. Evaluation of cloud prediction and determination of critical relative humidity for a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaman, N.L.; Guo, Z.; Ackerman, T.P. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Predictions of cloud occurrence and vertical location from the Pennsylvannia State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) were evaluated statistically using cloud observations obtained at Coffeyville, Kansas, as part of the Second International satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment campaign. Seventeen cases were selected for simulation during a November-December 1991 field study. MM5 was used to produce two sets of 36-km simulations, one with and one without four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), and a set of 12-km simulations without FDDA, but nested within the 36-km FDDA runs.

  18. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over the South Asian maritime continent: vertical distributions and topographic effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, C.; Wang, J.; Yang, Z.; Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Chew, B.; Mahamod, M.

    2011-12-01

    The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used in conjunction with the FLAMBE MODIS-based biomass burning emissions to simulate the transport of smoke particles over the southeast Asian Maritime Continent (MC, 10°S - 10°N, 90°E-150°E) during September - October 2006 when the moderate El Nino event caused the largest region biomass burning outbreak since 1998. The modeled smoke transport pathway is found to be consistent with the MODIS true color images. Quantitatively, the modeled smoke particle mass can explain ~50% of temporal variability in 24-hour average observed PM10 at most ground stations, with linear correlation coefficients often larger than 0.7. Analysis of CALIOP data shows that smoke aerosols are primarily located within 3.5 km above the surface, and we found that smoke injection height in the model should be at ~800 m above surface to best match CALIOP observations downwind, instead of 2 km as used in the past literature. Comparison of CALIOP data in October 2006 with that in other years (2007-2010) reveals that the peak of aerosol extinction always occurs at ~1 km above surface, but smoke events in 2006 doubled the aerosol extinction from the surface to 3.5 km. Numerical experiments further show that the Tama Abu topography in Malaysia Peninsula has a significant impact on smoke transport and the surface in the vicinity. A conceptual model, based upon our analysis of two-month WRFchem simulation and satellite data, is proposed to explain the meteorological causes for smoke layers above the clouds as seen in the CALIOP data.

  19. Mesoscale Characterization of Fracture Properties of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Using a Lattice–Particle Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Montero-Chacón

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a lattice–particle model for the analysis of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC. In this approach, fibers are explicitly modeled and connected to the concrete matrix lattice via interface elements. The interface behavior was calibrated by means of pullout tests and a range for the bond properties is proposed. The model was validated with analytical and experimental results under uniaxial tension and compression, demonstrating the ability of the model to correctly describe the effect of fiber volume fraction and distribution on fracture properties of SFRC. The lattice–particle model was integrated into a hierarchical homogenization-based scheme in which macroscopic material parameters are obtained from mesoscale simulations. Moreover, a representative volume element (RVE analysis was carried out and the results shows that such an RVE does exist in the post-peak regime and until localization takes place. Finally, the multiscale upscaling strategy was successfully validated with three-point bending tests.

  20. Mesoscale Characterization of Fracture Properties of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Using a Lattice-Particle Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Chacón, Francisco; Cifuentes, Héctor; Medina, Fernando

    2017-02-21

    This work presents a lattice-particle model for the analysis of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC). In this approach, fibers are explicitly modeled and connected to the concrete matrix lattice via interface elements. The interface behavior was calibrated by means of pullout tests and a range for the bond properties is proposed. The model was validated with analytical and experimental results under uniaxial tension and compression, demonstrating the ability of the model to correctly describe the effect of fiber volume fraction and distribution on fracture properties of SFRC. The lattice-particle model was integrated into a hierarchical homogenization-based scheme in which macroscopic material parameters are obtained from mesoscale simulations. Moreover, a representative volume element (RVE) analysis was carried out and the results shows that such an RVE does exist in the post-peak regime and until localization takes place. Finally, the multiscale upscaling strategy was successfully validated with three-point bending tests.

  1. Mesoscale Characterization of Fracture Properties of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Using a Lattice–Particle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Chacón, Francisco; Cifuentes, Héctor; Medina, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    This work presents a lattice–particle model for the analysis of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC). In this approach, fibers are explicitly modeled and connected to the concrete matrix lattice via interface elements. The interface behavior was calibrated by means of pullout tests and a range for the bond properties is proposed. The model was validated with analytical and experimental results under uniaxial tension and compression, demonstrating the ability of the model to correctly describe the effect of fiber volume fraction and distribution on fracture properties of SFRC. The lattice–particle model was integrated into a hierarchical homogenization-based scheme in which macroscopic material parameters are obtained from mesoscale simulations. Moreover, a representative volume element (RVE) analysis was carried out and the results shows that such an RVE does exist in the post-peak regime and until localization takes place. Finally, the multiscale upscaling strategy was successfully validated with three-point bending tests. PMID:28772568

  2. Meso-scale modelling of the heat conductivity effect on the shock response of a porous material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnyansky, A. D.

    2017-06-01

    Understanding of deformation mechanisms of porous materials under shock compression is important for tailoring material properties at the shock manufacturing of advanced materials from substrate powders and for studying the response of porous materials under shock loading. Numerical set-up of the present work considers a set of solid particles separated by air representing a volume of porous material. Condensed material in the meso-scale set-up is simulated with a viscoelastic rate sensitive material model with heat conduction formulated from the principles of irreversible thermodynamics. The model is implemented in the CTH shock physics code. The meso-scale CTH simulation of the shock loading of the representative volume reveals the mechanism of pore collapse and shows in detail the transition from a high porosity case typical for abnormal Hugoniot response to a moderate porosity case typical for conventional Hugoniot response. Results of the analysis agree with previous analytical considerations and support hypotheses used in the two-phase approach.

  3. Air Pollutant Distribution and Mesoscale Circulation Systems During Escompte

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottmeier, Ch.; Kalthoff, N.; Corsmeier, U.; Robin, D.; Thürauf, J.; Hofherr, T.; Hasel, M.

    The distribution of pollutants observed with an Dornier 128 instrumented aircraft and from AIRMARAIX ground stations during one day of the Escompte experiment (June 25, 2001) is analysed in relation to the mesoscale wind systems and vertical mixing from aircraft and radiosonde data. The ESCOMPTE-experiment (http://medias.obs- mip.fr/escompte) was carried out in June and July 2001 in the urban area of Marseille and its rural surroundings to investigate periods with photosmog conditions. The over- all aim is to produce an appropriate high quality 3-D data set which includes emission, meteorological, and chemical data. The data is used for the validation of mesoscale models and for chemical and meteorological process studies. The evolution of pho- tosmog episodes with high ozone concentrations depends on both chemical transfor- mation processes and meteorological conditions. As Marseille is situated between the Mediterranean Sea in the south and mountainous sites in the north, under weak large- scale flow the meteorological conditions are dominated by thermally driven circula- tion systems which strongly influence the horizontal transport of air pollutants. Ad- ditionally, vertically exchange processes like mountain venting and slope winds may contribute in the temporal evolution of the trace gas concentration of the city plume in the atmospheric boundary layer and are particularly studied by the Dornier flight measurements. Therefore the experiment was designed to measure both, the chemi- cal species and meteorological parameters with high resolution in space and time by surface stations, aircraft and vertical profiling systems like radiosondes, sodars and lidars. Results are shown (a) on the evolution of the wind field and the ozone concen- trations during June 25, when an ozone maximum develops about 60 km in the lee site of Marseille and (b) the vertical transport of air pollutants between the boundary layer and the free troposphere.

  4. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

    2013-02-01

    parameterizations (e.g. snow-related processes, subgrid-scale surface roughness elements, and urban canopy/heat island treatments and CO2 domes). While the use of finer grid resolutions of 0.125° and 0.025° shows some improvement for WS10, Precip, and some mesoscale events (e.g. strong forced convection and heavy precipitation), it does not significantly improve the overall statistical performance for all meteorological variables except for Precip. These results indicate a need to further improve the model representations of the above parameterizations at all scales.

  5. Tracer experiment data sets for the verification of local and meso-scale atmospheric dispersion models including topographic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartori, E.; Schuler, W.

    1992-01-01

    Software and data for nuclear energy applications are acquired, tested and distributed by several information centres; in particular, relevant computer codes are distributed internationally by the OECD/NEA Data Bank (France) and by ESTSC and EPIC/RSIC (United States). This activity is coordinated among the centres and is extended outside the OECD area through an arrangement with the IAEA. This article proposes more specifically a scheme for acquiring, storing and distributing atmospheric tracer experiment data (ATE) required for verification of atmospheric dispersion models especially the most advanced ones including topographic effects and specific to the local and meso-scale. These well documented data sets will form a valuable complement to the set of atmospheric dispersion computer codes distributed internationally. Modellers will be able to gain confidence in the predictive power of their models or to verify their modelling skills. (au)

  6. A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

    2006-01-01

    An intermediate-complexity, quasi-physically based, meteorological model (MicroMet) has been developed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 30-m to 1-km horizontal grid increment) atmospheric forcings required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The following eight variables, required to run most terrestrial models, are...

  7. Meteorological monitoring for environmental/dose assessment and emergency response modeling: How much is enough?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, C.S.

    1989-01-01

    In evaluation the effectiveness and appropriateness of meteorological monitoring programs, managers responsible for planning and operating emergency response or environmental/dose assessment systems must routinely question whether enough meteorological data are being obtained to adequately support system applications. There is no simple answer or cookbook procedure that can be followed in generating an appropriate answer to this question. The answer must be developed through detailed consideration of the intended applications for the data, the capabilities of the models that would use the data, pollutant release characteristics, terrain in the modeling region, the size of the modeling domain, and the distribution of human population in the modeling domain. It is recommended that manager consult meteorologists when assessing these factors; the meteorologist's detailed knowledge of, and experience in, studying atmospheric transport and diffusion should assist the manager in determining the appropriate level of meteorological monitoring. 1 ref

  8. The Influence of Temperature on Time-Dependent Deformation and Failure in Granite: A Mesoscale Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, T.; Zhou, G. L.; Heap, Michael J.; Zhu, W. C.; Chen, C. F.; Baud, Patrick

    2017-09-01

    An understanding of the influence of temperature on brittle creep in granite is important for the management and optimization of granitic nuclear waste repositories and geothermal resources. We propose here a two-dimensional, thermo-mechanical numerical model that describes the time-dependent brittle deformation (brittle creep) of low-porosity granite under different constant temperatures and confining pressures. The mesoscale model accounts for material heterogeneity through a stochastic local failure stress field, and local material degradation using an exponential material softening law. Importantly, the model introduces the concept of a mesoscopic renormalization to capture the co-operative interaction between microcracks in the transition from distributed to localized damage. The mesoscale physico-mechanical parameters for the model were first determined using a trial-and-error method (until the modeled output accurately captured mechanical data from constant strain rate experiments on low-porosity granite at three different confining pressures). The thermo-physical parameters required for the model, such as specific heat capacity, coefficient of linear thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity, were then determined from brittle creep experiments performed on the same low-porosity granite at temperatures of 23, 50, and 90 °C. The good agreement between the modeled output and the experimental data, using a unique set of thermo-physico-mechanical parameters, lends confidence to our numerical approach. Using these parameters, we then explore the influence of temperature, differential stress, confining pressure, and sample homogeneity on brittle creep in low-porosity granite. Our simulations show that increases in temperature and differential stress increase the creep strain rate and therefore reduce time-to-failure, while increases in confining pressure and sample homogeneity decrease creep strain rate and increase time-to-failure. We anticipate that the

  9. Extending atomistic scale chemistry to mesoscale model of condensed-phase deflagration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Kaushik; Chaudhuri, Santanu

    2017-01-01

    Predictive simulations connecting chemistry that follow the shock or thermal initiation of energetic materials to subsequent deflagration or detonation events is currently outside the realm of possibilities. Molecular dynamics and first-principles based dynamics have made progress in understanding reactions in picosecond to nanosecond time scale. Results from thermal ignition of different phases of RDX show a complex reaction network and emergence of a deterministic behavior for critical temperature before ignition and hot spot growth rates. The kinetics observed is dependent on the hot spot temperature, system size and thermal conductivity. For cases where ignition is observed, the incubation period is dominated by intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen transfer reactions. The gradual temperature and pressure increase in the incubation period is accompanied by accumulation of heavier polyradicals. The challenge of connecting such chemistry in mesoscale simulations remain in reducing the complexity of chemistry. The hot spot growth kinetics in RDX grains and interfaces is an important challenge for reactive simulations aiming to fill in the gaps in our knowledge in the nanoseconds to microseconds time scale. The results discussed indicate that the mesoscale chemistry may include large polyradical molecules in dense reactive mix reaching an instability point at certain temperatures and pressures.

  10. Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

    2018-01-01

    Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

  11. Key Issues for Seamless Integrated Chemistry–Meteorology Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online coupled meteorology–atmospheric chemistry models have greatly evolved in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modeling community, these integrated models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, as they can con...

  12. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  13. Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M.; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S.; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. PMID:23024750

  14. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M Moore

    Full Text Available Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

  15. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

    2015-07-01

    This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

  16. Screen-level non-GTS data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Milelli

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The forecast in areas of very complex topography, as for instance the Alpine region, is still a challenge even for the new generation of numerical weather prediction models which aim at reaching the km-scale. The problem is enhanced by a general lack of standard observations, which is even more evident over the southern side of the Alps. For this reason, it would be useful to increase the performance of the mathematical models by locally assimilating non-conventional data. Since in ARPA Piemonte there is the availability of a great number of non-GTS stations, it has been decided to assimilate the 2 m temperature, coming from this dataset, in the very-high resolution version of the COSMO model, which has a horizontal resolution of about 3 km, more similar to the average resolution of the thermometers. Four different weather situations have been considered, ranging from spring to winter, from cloudy to clear sky. The aim of the work is to investigate the effects of the assimilation of non-GTS data in order to create an operational very high-resolution analysis, but also to test the option of running in the future a very short-range forecast starting from these analyses (RUC or Rapid Update Cycle. The results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Mean Error and diurnal cycle of some surface variables such as 2 m temperature, 2 m relative humidity and 10 m wind intensity show a positive impact during the assimilation cycle which tends to dissipate a few hours after the end of it. Moreover, the 2 m temperature assimilation has a slightly positive or neutral impact on the vertical profiles of temperature, eventhough some calibration is needed for the precipitation field which is too much perturbed during the assimilation cycle, while it is unaffected in the forecast period. So the stability of the planetary boundary layer, on the one hand, has not been particularly improved by the new-data assimilation, but, on the other hand, it has not been destroyed

  17. Incorporation of a high-roughness lower boundary into a mesoscale model for studies of dry deposition over complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Physick, W. L.; Garratt, J. R.

    1995-04-01

    For flow over natural surfaces, there exists a roughness sublayer within the atmospheric surface layer near the boundary. In this sublayer (typically 50 z 0 deep in unstable conditions), the Monin-Obukhov (M-O) flux profile relations for homogeneous surfaces cannot be applied. We have incorporated a modified form of the M-O stability functions (Garratt, 1978, 1980, 1983) in a mesoscale model to take account of this roughness sublayer and examined the diurnal variation of the boundary-layer wind and temperature profiles with and without these modifications. We have also investigated the effect of the modified M-O functions on the aerodynamic and laminar-sublayer resistances associated with the transfer of trace gases to vegetation. Our results show that when an observation height or the lowest level in a model is within the roughness sublayer, neglect of the flux-profile modifications leads to an underestimate of resistances by 7% at the most.

  18. A methodology to aid in the design of naval steels: Linking first principles calculations to mesoscale modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spanos, G.; Geltmacher, A.B.; Lewis, A.C.; Bingert, J.F.; Mehl, M.; Papaconstantopoulos, D.; Mishin, Y.; Gupta, A.; Matic, P.

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides a brief overview of a multidisciplinary effort at the Naval Research Laboratory aimed at developing a computationally-based methodology to assist in the design of advanced Naval steels. This program uses multiple computational techniques ranging from the atomistic length scale to continuum response. First-principles electronic structure calculations using density functional theory were employed, semi-empirical angular dependent potentials were developed based on the embedded atom method, and these potentials were used as input into Monte-Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations. Experimental techniques have also been applied to a super-austenitic stainless steel (AL6XN) to provide experimental input, guidance, verification, and enhancements to the models. These experimental methods include optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, electron backscatter diffraction, and serial sectioning in conjunction with computer-based three-dimensional reconstruction and quantitative analyses. The experimental results are also used as critical input into mesoscale finite element models of materials response

  19. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  20. Comparing Epileptiform Behavior of Mesoscale Detailed Models and Population Models of Neocortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, S.; Meijer, Hil Gaétan Ellart; Lee, Hyong C.; van Drongelen, Wim; van Putten, Michel Johannes Antonius Maria; van Gils, Stephanus A.

    2010-01-01

    Two models of the neocortex are developed to study normal and pathologic neuronal activity. One model contains a detailed description of a neocortical microcolumn represented by 656 neurons, including superficial and deep pyramidal cells, four types of inhibitory neurons, and realistic synaptic

  1. Mesoscale modelling in China: Risø DTU numerical wind atlas calculation for NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    of the wind resource for Dongbei south of 50oN. The results of the numerical wind atlas show a wind resource over the region of interest modulated mainly by topographic features. These are principally elevated terrain features, giving high resources on exposed ridges and lower resources adjacent to the low......This document reports on the methods and findings of project “A01 Mesoscale Modelling”, part of the CMA component of the Wind Energy Development (WED) programme, focusing mainly on the methods and work undertaken by Risø DTU. The KAMM/WAsP methodology for numerical wind atlas calculation....... The major new aspects of the project were the large number of KAMM/WAsP sensitivity studies, comparison with WRF, and the CMA’s numerical wind atlas method (WERAS). Additionally, the reliability of the input data for the methodology, and the wave-number spectra properties of the output data were...

  2. A high space-time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche region, France

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nord, Guillaume; Boudevillain, Brice; Berne, Alexis; Branger, Flora; Braud, Isabelle; Dramais, Guillaume; Gérard, Simon; Coz, Le Jérôme; Legoût, Cédric; Molinié, Gilles; Teuling, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 2011-31 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment

  3. Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

    2018-05-01

    Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

  4. Effects of airplane emissions on the composition of the atmosphere: Investigations using a mesoscale chemical transport model; Der Einfluss von Flugzeugabgasen auf die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphaere: Untersuchungen mit einem mesoskaligen Chemie-Transport-Modell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippert, E

    1997-12-31

    In the present work the impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric composition is studied using a mesoscale chemistry transport model. To simulate the impact of aircraft exhausts several modifications on the EURAD model system have been performed. The upper boundary of the model has been extended from 100 hPa up to 10 hPa. The vertical resolution of the model has been refined especially in tropopause altitudes extending the number of model layers from 15 to 29. Additionally the initialization and the treatment of the boundary conditions has been improved by coupling the trace gas concentration fields with the individual meteorological situation. To guarantee an adequate representation of the atmospheric chemistry the chemical mechanism CHEST has been developed and implemented into the chemistry transport model. CHEST treats the most important chemical processes of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. In the frame of the present work sensitivity studies with a box model and with the threedimensional chemistry transport model have been performed to investigate the impact of aircraft emissions upon the atmosphere. (KW) [Deutsch] In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Auswirkungen der Flugzeugemissionen auf die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphaere mit Hilfe eines mesoskaligen Chemie-Transport-Modells untersucht. Zur Simulation der Ausbreitung der Flugzeugabgase wurden am EURAD-Modell-System umfangreiche Veraenderungen vorgenommen. Der obere Modellrand des Chemie-Transport-Modells ist von 100 hPa auf 10 hPa erhoeht worden. Die vertikale Aufloesung des Modells wurde insbesondere im Tropopausenbereich durch eine Erhoehung der Gesamtzahl der Modellschichten von 15 auf 29 wesentlich verfeinert. Ausserdem ist die Initialisierung der Spurenstoffverteilung im Modell an die Dynamik gekoppelt worden. Dem Chemie-Transport-Modell stehen damit an die jeweilige meteorologische Situation angepasste Konzentrationsfelder zur Initialisierung und zur Behandlung der Fluesse durch den

  5. Effects of airplane emissions on the composition of the atmosphere: Investigations using a mesoscale chemical transport model; Der Einfluss von Flugzeugabgasen auf die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphaere: Untersuchungen mit einem mesoskaligen Chemie-Transport-Modell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippert, E.

    1996-12-31

    In the present work the impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric composition is studied using a mesoscale chemistry transport model. To simulate the impact of aircraft exhausts several modifications on the EURAD model system have been performed. The upper boundary of the model has been extended from 100 hPa up to 10 hPa. The vertical resolution of the model has been refined especially in tropopause altitudes extending the number of model layers from 15 to 29. Additionally the initialization and the treatment of the boundary conditions has been improved by coupling the trace gas concentration fields with the individual meteorological situation. To guarantee an adequate representation of the atmospheric chemistry the chemical mechanism CHEST has been developed and implemented into the chemistry transport model. CHEST treats the most important chemical processes of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. In the frame of the present work sensitivity studies with a box model and with the threedimensional chemistry transport model have been performed to investigate the impact of aircraft emissions upon the atmosphere. (KW) [Deutsch] In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Auswirkungen der Flugzeugemissionen auf die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphaere mit Hilfe eines mesoskaligen Chemie-Transport-Modells untersucht. Zur Simulation der Ausbreitung der Flugzeugabgase wurden am EURAD-Modell-System umfangreiche Veraenderungen vorgenommen. Der obere Modellrand des Chemie-Transport-Modells ist von 100 hPa auf 10 hPa erhoeht worden. Die vertikale Aufloesung des Modells wurde insbesondere im Tropopausenbereich durch eine Erhoehung der Gesamtzahl der Modellschichten von 15 auf 29 wesentlich verfeinert. Ausserdem ist die Initialisierung der Spurenstoffverteilung im Modell an die Dynamik gekoppelt worden. Dem Chemie-Transport-Modell stehen damit an die jeweilige meteorologische Situation angepasste Konzentrationsfelder zur Initialisierung und zur Behandlung der Fluesse durch den

  6. Data assimilation of a ten-day period during June 1993 over the Southern Great Plains Site using a nested mesoscale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, J.; Guo, Y.R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been to obtain a complete representation of physical processes on the scale of a general circulation model (GCM) grid box in order to better parameterize radiative processes in these models. Since an observational network of practical size cannot be used alone to characterize the Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site`s 3D structure and time development, data assimilation using the enhanced observations together with a mesoscale model is used to give a full 4D analysis at high resolution. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) has been applied over a ten-day continuous period in a triple-nested mode with grid sizes of 60, 20 and 6.67 in. The outer domain covers the United States` 48 contiguous states; the innermost is a 480-km square centered on Lamont, Oklahoma. A simulation has been run with data assimilation using the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) 60-km analyses from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The nested domains take boundary conditions from and feed back continually to their parent meshes (i.e., they are two-way interactive). As reported last year, this provided a simulation of the basic features of mesoscale events over the CART site during the period 16-26 June 1993 when an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) was under way.

  7. Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model for GABLS3: Impact of boundary-layer schemes, boundary conditions and spin-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleczek, M.A.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, specifically the performance of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations. For this purpose, Cabauw tower observations were used, with the study extending beyond the third GEWEX

  8. Simulating an extreme over-the-horizon optical propagation event over Lake Michigan using a coupled mesoscale modeling and ray tracing framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basu, S.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate simulation and forecasting of over-the-horizon propagation events are essential for various civilian and defense applications. We demonstrate the prowess of a newly proposed coupled mesoscale modeling and ray tracing framework in reproducing such an event. Wherever possible, routinely

  9. Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, X.

    2017-12-01

    A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.

  10. Prediction Model for Demands of the Health Meteorological Information Using a Decision Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jina Oh, RN, PhD

    2010-09-01

    Conclusions: It can be effectively used as a reference model for future studies and is a suggested direction in health meteorological information service and policy development. We suggest health forecasting as a nursing service and a primary health care network for healthier and more comfortable life.

  11. A Method for Evaluation of Model-Generated Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    evaluated WRF output for the boundary layer over Svalbard in the Arctic in terms of height above ground compared to tower and tethered balloon ...Valparaiso, Chile; 2011. Dutsch ML. Evaluation of the WRF model based on observations made by controlled meteorological balloons in the atmospheric

  12. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario....

  13. Confronting the WRF and RAMS mesoscale models with innovative observations in the Netherlands: Evaluating the boundary layer heat budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steeneveld, G. J.; Tolk, L. F.; Moene, A. F.; Hartogensis, O. K.; Peters, W.; Holtslag, A. A. M.

    2011-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Model System (RAMS) are frequently used for (regional) weather, climate and air quality studies. This paper covers an evaluation of these models for a windy and calm episode against Cabauw tower observations (Netherlands), with a special focus on the representation of the physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In addition, area averaged sensible heat flux observations by scintillometry are utilized which enables evaluation of grid scale model fluxes and flux observations at the same horizontal scale. Also, novel ABL height observations by ceilometry and of the near surface longwave radiation divergence are utilized. It appears that WRF in its basic set-up shows satisfactory model results for nearly all atmospheric near surface variables compared to field observations, while RAMS needed refining of its ABL scheme. An important inconsistency was found regarding the ABL daytime heat budget: Both model versions are only able to correctly forecast the ABL thermodynamic structure when the modeled surface sensible heat flux is much larger than both the eddy-covariance and scintillometer observations indicate. In order to clarify this discrepancy, model results for each term of the heat budget equation is evaluated against field observations. Sensitivity studies and evaluation of radiative tendencies and entrainment reveal that possible errors in these variables cannot explain the overestimation of the sensible heat flux within the current model infrastructure.

  14. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  15. Modeling of mesoscale dispersion effect on the piezoresistivity of carbon nanotube-polymer nanocomposites via 3D computational multiscale micromechanics methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Xiang; Seidel, Gary D; Chaurasia, Adarsh K; Oliva-Avilés, Andrés I; Ku-Herrera, José J; Avilés, Francis

    2015-01-01

    In uniaxial tension and compression experiments, carbon nanotube (CNT)-polymer nanocomposites have demonstrated exceptional mechanical and coupled electrostatic properties in the form of piezoresistivity. In order to better understand the correlation of the piezoresistive response with the CNT dispersion at the mesoscale, a 3D computational multiscale micromechanics model based on finite element analysis is constructed to predict the effective macroscale piezoresistive response of CNT/polymer nanocomposites. The key factors that may contribute to the overall piezoresistive response, i.e. the nanoscale electrical tunneling effect, the inherent CNT piezoresistivity and the CNT mesoscale network effect are incorporated in the model based on a 3D multiscale mechanical–electrostatic coupled code. The results not only explain how different nanoscale mechanisms influence the overall macroscale piezoresistive response through the mesoscale CNT network, but also give reason and provide bounds for the wide range of gauge factors found in the literature offering insight regarding how control of the mesoscale CNT networks can be used to tailor nanocomposite piezoresistive response. (paper)

  16. Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of the development and application of online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models, with a focus on five representative models developed in the US including GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM. These models represent the current status and/or the state-of-the science treatments of online-coupled models worldwide. Their major model features, typical applications, and physical/chemical treatments are compared with a focus on model treatments of aerosol and cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology and aerosol indirect effects are illustrated with case studies for some of these models. Future research needs for model development, improvement, application, as well as major challenges for online-coupled models are discussed.

  17. Bridging the Radiative Transfer Models for Meteorology and Solar Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.

    2017-12-01

    Radiative transfer models are used to compute solar radiation reaching the earth surface and play an important role in both meteorology and solar energy studies. Therefore, they are designed to meet the needs of specialized applications. For instance, radiative transfer models for meteorology seek to provide more accurate cloudy-sky radiation compared to models used in solar energy that are geared towards accuracy in clear-sky conditions associated with the maximum solar resource. However, models for solar energy applications are often computationally faster, as the complex solution of the radiative transfer equation is parameterized by atmospheric properties that can be acquired from surface- or satellite-based observations. This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to combine the advantages of radiative transfer models designed for meteorology and solar energy applictions. A fast all-sky radiation model, FARMS-NIT, was developed to efficiently compute narrowband all-sky irradiances over inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. This new model utilizes the optical preperties from a solar energy model, SMARTS, to computes surface radiation by considering all possible paths of photon transmission and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. For cloudy-sky conditions, cloud bidirectional transmittance functions (BTDFs) are provided by a precomputed lookup table (LUT) by LibRadtran. Our initial results indicate that FARMS-NIT has an accuracy that is similar to LibRadtran, a highly accurate multi-stream model, but is significantly more efficient. The development and validation of this model will be presented.

  18. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely’ di...

  19. Investigations of the adequacy of the meteorological transport model developed for the reactor safety study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spring, J.L.; Brown, W.D.; Church, H.W.; McGrath, P.E.; Ritchie, L.T.; Russo, A.J.; Steck, G.P.; Wayland, J.R.; Blond, R.M.; Wall, I.B.

    1978-01-01

    A computer model (CRAC) was developed for the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) [1] to estimate the consequences of postulated accidents at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. One hundred reactors at 68 sites were included in the study. The 68 sites were divided into 6 classes according to their geographic location and meteorology. For each site class, a composite population distribution was constructed from the true population distributions at each of the sites comprising that class, and a reference site was chosen for which a full year of meteorological data (wind speed, atmospheric stability, occurrence of rain) was obtained. Given data about a postulated accident (probability, amounts of the released radionuclides, etc.) and the reference reactor site (meteorology, composite population, land usage), CRAC was used to calculate the atmospheric dispersion and ground deposition of the released radionuclides (Gaussian plume submodel) and the health effects (dosimetric and dose response submodels) and costs (land interdiction and decontamination submodel) resulting from their release. The Gaussian plume model used in CRAC either did not treat or treated simplistically a number of meteorological phenomena. Simplified models were used to treat plume rise, inversion layers, and rainstorms, while wind shear, wind direction, and correlations between wind fields and population distributions were not treated at all. Some of the effects of all of these phenomena on predictions of accident consequences as calculated using CRAC have been or are being investigated. The results of these studies are summarized

  20. One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

  1. A high space-time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ardèche region, France

    OpenAIRE

    Nord, Guillaume; Boudevillain, Brice; Berne, Alexis; Branger, Flora; Braud, Isabelle; Dramais, Guillaume; Gérard, Simon; Coz, Le, Jérôme; Legoût, Cédric; Molinié, Gilles; Teuling, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 2011-31 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116km2) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downst...

  2. Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Graham

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

  3. Coupling of high-resolution meteorological and wave models over southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bertotti

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of RISKMED project, three different high-resolution limited area meteorological models (BOLAM, MOLOCH and WRF have been run over southern Italy for the retrospective analysis of three case studies characterized by strong winds and severe wave conditions in the Ionian, southern Adriatic and southern Tyrrhenian seas. All the models were able to reproduce the main meteorological features of each event.

    The wind fields simulated by the meteorological models and those provided by the ECMWF analysis have been ingested into a wave model (WAM for the hindcast of the main wave parameters. The results have been compared with the observations of three buoys whose measurements were available in the area of interest.

    A remarkable improvement in the representation of the significant wave height came out using the limited area model data with respect to the simulations where the ECMWF analyses were used as forcing. Among the limited area models, the BOLAM-MOLOCH modelling system provided slightly better performances. From the limited set of simulations, the different model predictions came out closer to each other and more skilful in areas where the waves approach the coastline perpendicularly from the open sea.

  4. Study of solar radiation prediction and modeling of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Yan, Dong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We investigate relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables. • A strong relationship exists between solar radiation and sunshine duration. • Daily global radiation can be estimated accurately with ARMAX–GARCH models. • MGARCH model was applied to investigate time-varying relationships. - Abstract: The traditional approaches that employ the correlations between solar radiation and other measured meteorological variables are commonly utilized in studies. It is important to investigate the time-varying relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation to determine which variables have the strongest correlations with solar radiation. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX–GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time-series approaches were applied to investigate the associations between solar radiation and several meteorological variables. For these investigations, the long-term daily global solar radiation series measured at three stations from January 1, 2004 until December 31, 2007 were used in this study. Stronger relationships were observed to exist between global solar radiation and sunshine duration than between solar radiation and temperature difference. The results show that 82–88% of the temporal variations of the global solar radiation were captured by the sunshine-duration-based ARMAX–GARCH models and 55–68% of daily variations were captured by the temperature-difference-based ARMAX–GARCH models. The advantages of the ARMAX–GARCH models were also confirmed by comparison of Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and neutral network (ANN) models in the estimation of daily global solar radiation. The strong heteroscedastic persistency of the global solar radiation series was revealed by the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto

  5. Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For

  6. A Novel Observation-Guided Approach for Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by the DOE ACME Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Z.; Ma, P. L.; Hardin, J. C.; Houze, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the largest type of convective storms that develop when convection aggregates and induces mesoscale circulation features. Over North America, MCSs contribute over 60% of the total warm-season precipitation and over half of the extreme daily precipitation in the central U.S. Our recent study (Feng et al. 2016) found that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in this region are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lived MCSs*. To date, global climate models typically do not run at a resolution high enough to explicitly simulate individual convective elements and may not have adequate process representations for MCSs, resulting in a large deficiency in projecting changes of the frequency of extreme precipitation events in future climate. In this study, we developed a novel observation-guided approach specifically designed to evaluate simulated MCSs in the Department of Energy's climate model, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME). The ACME model has advanced treatments for convection and subgrid variability and for this study is run at 25 km and 100 km grid spacings. We constructed a robust MCS database consisting of over 500 MCSs from 3 warm-season observations by applying a feature-tracking algorithm to 4-km resolution merged geostationary satellite and 3-D NEXRAD radar network data over the Continental US. This high-resolution MCS database is then down-sampled to the 25 and 100 km ACME grids to re-characterize key MCS properties. The feature-tracking algorithm is adapted with the adjusted characteristics to identify MCSs from ACME model simulations. We demonstrate that this new analysis framework is useful for evaluating ACME's warm-season precipitation statistics associated with MCSs, and provides insights into the model process representations related to extreme precipitation events for future improvement. *Feng, Z., L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze, C. D. Burleyson

  7. Cairo city air quality research initiative part-i: A meteorological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-AAl, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    The modified meteorological model Hotmac (Higher order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation) is a three-dimensional and finite grid model developed primarily for simospheric motions and based on solving the conservation equations of mass momentum, energy and turbulent kinetic energy. The model is used for studying air quality of cairo cty and its surrounding to treat a domain that includes an urbanized area for understanding problems of air pollution. The acquired terrain (elevation) data for Egypt was obtained. The local and upper level geostrophic data were provided by rawinsonde of wind speed and direction, temperature,relative humidity, water vapour, and pressure The potential temperature was obtained by a computer program. The meteorological data was obtained for helwan site, about 20 kilometer south of cairo city. Three mested grids were used, with grids resolutions of 2 6 and 18 kilometers to cover a domain of approximately 360 km that extended from the red Sea to the mediterranean Sea

  8. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, R.C.; Kocher, D.C.; Hicks, B.B.; Hosker, R.P. Jr.; Ku, J.Y.; Rao, K.S.

    1985-01-01

    We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2-3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references

  9. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  10. Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

  11. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  12. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-05-01

    Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB).In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  13. Sensitivity of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model v4.7 results for the eastern United States to MM5 and WRF meteorological drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. W. Appel

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparison of the operational performances of two Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model v4.7 simulations that utilize input data from the 5th-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5 and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF meteorological models. Two sets of CMAQ model simulations were performed for January and August 2006. One set utilized MM5 meteorology (MM5-CMAQ and the other utilized WRF meteorology (WRF-CMAQ, while all other model inputs and options were kept the same. For January, predicted ozone (O3 mixing ratios were higher in the Southeast and lower Mid-west regions in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, resulting in slightly higher bias and error as compared to the MM5-CMAQ simulations. The higher predicted O3 mixing ratios are attributed to less dry deposition of O3 in the WRF-CMAQ simulation due to differences in the calculation of the vegetation fraction between the MM5 and WRF models. The WRF-CMAQ results showed better performance for particulate sulfate (SO42−, similar performance for nitrate (NO3, and slightly worse performance for nitric acid (HNO3, total carbon (TC and total fine particulate (PM2.5 mass than the corresponding MM5-CMAQ results. For August, predictions of O3 were notably higher in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, particularly in the southern United States, resulting in increased model bias. Concentrations of predicted particulate SO42− were lower in the region surrounding the Ohio Valley and higher along the Gulf of Mexico in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, contributing to poorer model performance. The primary causes of the differences in the MM5-CMAQ and WRF-CMAQ simulations appear to be due to differences in the calculation of wind speed, planetary boundary layer height, cloud cover and the friction velocity (u in the MM5 and WRF model simulations, while

  14. Reduced fractal model for quantitative analysis of averaged micromotions in mesoscale: Characterization of blow-like signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigmatullin, Raoul R.; Toboev, Vyacheslav A.; Lino, Paolo; Maione, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A new approach describes fractal-branched systems with long-range fluctuations. •A reduced fractal model is proposed. •The approach is used to characterize blow-like signals. •The approach is tested on data from different fields. -- Abstract: It has been shown that many micromotions in the mesoscale region are averaged in accordance with their self-similar (geometrical/dynamical) structure. This distinctive feature helps to reduce a wide set of different micromotions describing relaxation/exchange processes to an averaged collective motion, expressed mathematically in a rather general form. This reduction opens new perspectives in description of different blow-like signals (BLS) in many complex systems. The main characteristic of these signals is a finite duration also when the generalized reduced function is used for their quantitative fitting. As an example, we describe quantitatively available signals that are generated by bronchial asthmatic people, songs by queen bees, and car engine valves operating in the idling regime. We develop a special treatment procedure based on the eigen-coordinates (ECs) method that allows to justify the generalized reduced fractal model (RFM) for description of BLS that can propagate in different complex systems. The obtained describing function is based on the self-similar properties of the different considered micromotions. This kind of cooperative model is proposed here for the first time. In spite of the fact that the nature of the dynamic processes that take place in fractal structure on a mesoscale level is not well understood, the parameters of the RFM fitting function can be used for construction of calibration curves, affected by various external/random factors. Then, the calculated set of the fitting parameters of these calibration curves can characterize BLS of different complex systems affected by those factors. Though the method to construct and analyze the calibration curves goes beyond the scope

  15. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2008-12-01

    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

  16. Impact of deep convection in the tropical tropopause layer in West Africa: in-situ observations and mesoscale modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fierli

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO2 during August 2006 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely to have originated from convective cloud east of the flights. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that convection can influence the composition of the upper troposphere above the level of main outflow for an event of deep convection close to the observation site. Model analysis also shows that deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.

  17. Radiation-induced aging of PDMS Elastomer TR-55: a summary of constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiti, A [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Weisgraber, T. H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dinh, L. N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-16

    Filled and cross-linked elastomeric rubbers are versatile network materials with a multitude of applications ranging from artificial organs and biomedical devices to cushions, coatings, adhesives, interconnects, and seismic-isolation-, thermal-, and electrical barriers. External factors like mechanical stress, temperature fluctuations, or radiation are known to create chemical changes in such materials that can directly affect the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the polymer between cross-links and alter the structural and mechanical properties. From a Materials Science point of view it is highly desirable to understand, effect, and manipulate such property changes in a controlled manner. In this report we summarize our modeling efforts on a polysiloxane elastomer TR-55, which is an important component in several of our systems, and representative of a wide class of filled rubber materials. The primary aging driver in this work has been γ-radiation, and a variety of modeling approaches have been employed, including constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models. The work utilizes diverse experimental data, including mechanical stress-strain and compression set measurements, as well as MWD measurements using multiquantum NMR.

  18. Simulation of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponomarev, V. I.; Fayman, P. A.; Prants, S. V.; Budyansky, M. V.; Uleysky, M. Yu.

    2018-06-01

    The eddy-resolved ocean circulation model RIAMOM (Lee et al., 2003) is used to analyze seasonal variability of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea. The model domain is a vast area including the northern Japan Sea, Okhotsk Sea and adjacent region in the Pacific Ocean. A numerical experiment with a horizontal 1/18° resolution has been carried out under realistic meteorological conditions from the ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis with restoring of surface temperature and salinity. The simulated seasonal variability of both the current system and mesoscale eddy dynamics in the Tatar Strait is in a good agreement with temperature and salinity distributions of oceanographic observation data collected during various seasons and years. Two general circulation regimes in the Strait have been found. The circulation regime changes from summer to winter due to seasonal change of the North Asian Monsoon. On a synoptic time scale, the similar change of the circulation regime occurs due to change of the southeastern wind to the northwestern one when the meteorological situation with an anticyclone over the Okhotsk Sea changes to that with a strong cyclone. The Lagrangian maps illustrate seasonal changes in direction of the main currents and in polarity and location of mesoscale eddies in the Strait.

  19. Coupled simulation of meteorological parameters and sound intensity in a narrow valley

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Gross, G. [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimatologie

    1997-07-01

    A meteorological mesoscale model is used to simulate the inhomogeneous distribution of temperature and the appertaining development of thermal wind systems in a narrow two-dimensional valley during the course of a cloud-free day. A simple sound particle model takes up the simulated meteorological fields and calculates the propagation of noise which originates from a line source at one of the slopes of this valley. The coupled modeling system ensures consistency of topography, meteorological parameters and the sound field. The temporal behaviour of the sound intensity level across the valley is examined. It is only governed by the time-dependent meteorology. The results show remarkable variations of the sound intensity during the course of a day depending on the location in the valley. (orig.) 23 refs.

  20. Numerical simulation of terrain-induced mesoscale circulation in the Chiang Mai area, Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathitkunarat, Surachai; Wongwises, Prungchan; Pan-Aram, Rudklao; Zhang, Meigen

    2008-11-01

    The regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) was applied to Chiang Mai province, a mountainous area in Thailand, to study terrain-induced mesoscale circulations. Eight cases in wet and dry seasons under different weather conditions were analyzed to show thermal and dynamic impacts on local circulations. This is the first study of RAMS in Thailand especially investigating the effect of mountainous area on the simulated meteorological data. Analysis of model results indicates that the model can reproduce major features of local circulation and diurnal variations in temperatures. For evaluating the model performance, model results were compared with observed wind speed, wind direction, and temperature monitored at a meteorological tower. Comparison shows that the modeled values are generally in good agreement with observations and that the model captured many of the observed features.

  1. Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kleine Deters

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5. Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thus, this paper proposes a machine learning approach based on six years of meteorological and pollution data analyses to predict the concentrations of PM2.5 from wind (speed and direction and precipitation levels. The results of the classification model show a high reliability in the classification of low (25 µg/m3 and low (<10 µg/m3 versus moderate (10–25 µg/m3 concentrations of PM2.5. A regression analysis suggests a better prediction of PM2.5 when the climatic conditions are getting more extreme (strong winds or high levels of precipitation. The high correlation between estimated and real data for a time series analysis during the wet season confirms this finding. The study demonstrates that the use of statistical models based on machine learning is relevant to predict PM2.5 concentrations from meteorological data.

  2. A unified bond theory, probabilistic meso-scale modeling, and experimental validation of deformed steel rebar in normal strength concrete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chenglin

    Bond between deformed rebar and concrete is affected by rebar deformation pattern, concrete properties, concrete confinement, and rebar-concrete interfacial properties. Two distinct groups of bond models were traditionally developed based on the dominant effects of concrete splitting and near-interface shear-off failures. Their accuracy highly depended upon the test data sets selected in analysis and calibration. In this study, a unified bond model is proposed and developed based on an analogy to the indentation problem around the rib front of deformed rebar. This mechanics-based model can take into account the combined effect of concrete splitting and interface shear-off failures, resulting in average bond strengths for all practical scenarios. To understand the fracture process associated with bond failure, a probabilistic meso-scale model of concrete is proposed and its sensitivity to interface and confinement strengths are investigated. Both the mechanical and finite element models are validated with the available test data sets and are superior to existing models in prediction of average bond strength (rib spacing-to-height ratio of deformed rebar. It can accurately predict the transition of failure modes from concrete splitting to rebar pullout and predict the effect of rebar surface characteristics as the rib spacing-to-height ratio increases. Based on the unified theory, a global bond model is proposed and developed by introducing bond-slip laws, and validated with testing of concrete beams with spliced reinforcement, achieving a load capacity prediction error of less than 26%. The optimal rebar parameters and concrete cover in structural designs can be derived from this study.

  3. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  4. A real case simulation of the air-borne effluent dispersion on a typical summer day under CDA scenario for PFBR using an advanced meteorological and dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, C.V; Venkatesan, R.; Bagavath Singh, A.; Somayaji, K.M.

    2003-11-01

    Environmental concentrations and radioactive doses within and beyond the site boundary for the CDA situation of PFBR have been estimated using an Advanced Radiological Impact Prediction system for a real atmospheric situation on a typical summer day in the month of May 2003. The system consists of a meso-scale atmospheric prognostic model MM5 coupled with a random walk Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART for the simulation of transport, diffusion and deposition of radio nuclides. The details of the modeling system, its capabilities and various features are presented. The model has been validated for the simulated coastal atmospheric features of land-sea breeze, development of TIBL etc., with site and regional meteorological observations from IMD. Analysis of the dose distribution in a situation that corresponds to the atmospheric conditions on the chosen day shows that the doses for CDA through different pathways are 8 times less than the earlier estimations made according to regulatory requirements using the Gaussian Plume Model (GPM) approach. However for stack releases a higher dose than was reported earlier occurred beyond the site boundary at 2-4 km range under stable and fumigation conditions. The doses due to stack releases under these conditions maintained almost the same value in 3 to 10 km range and decreased there after. Deposition velocities computed from radionuclide species, wind speed, surface properties were 2 orders lower than the values used earlier and hence gave more realistic estimates of ground deposited activity. The study has enabled to simulate the more complex meteorological situation that actually is present at the site of interest and the associated spatial distribution of radiological impact around Kalpakkam. In order to draw meaningful conclusion that can be compared with regulatory estimates future study would be undertaken to simulate the dispersion under extreme meteorological situations which could possibly be worse than

  5. On the forcing mechanisms of mesocyclones in the eastern Weddell Sea region, Antarctica: Process studies using a mesoscale numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Klein

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available Development mechanisms of Antarctic mesocyclones in the eastern Weddell Sea area are examined by means of simulations with a mesoscale model using different idealized initial conditions. In one of the experiments, a mesocyclone develops over an area of open water close to the coast of the Antarctic continent. The forcing mechanisms of this mesocyclogenesis are investigated by means of sensitivity studies in which certain physical processes and the relevance of the surface conditions topography, sea surface temperature and sea ice coverage are examined. The sensitivity experiments show that the simulated mesocyclone is forced by an interaction of several forcing mechanisms at different stages of the development rather than by a single mechanism. The topography of the eastern Weddell Sea region and the summertime coastal polynia are shown to be of great importance for the mesocyclogenesis. A suitable synoptic-scale flow is necessary to support the katabatic flow over the sloped ice sheet, and to enhance the generation of cyclonic vorticity due to vertical stretching for the initial mesocyclogenesis. The diabatic process of the convergence of the sensible and latent heat fluxes in the boundary layer over the coastal polynia then becomes the dominant forcing mechanism for the further development of the mesocyclone.

  6. Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Mesoscale Hydrological Modeling Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihun T. Dile

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme rainfall variability has been one of the major factors to famine and environmental degradation in Ethiopia. The potential for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin was assessed using two GIS-based Multicriteria Evaluation methods: (1 a Boolean approach to locate suitable areas for in situ and ex situ systems and (2 a weighted overlay analysis to classify suitable areas into different water harvesting suitability levels. The sensitivity of the results was analyzed to the influence given to different constraining factors. A large part of the basin was suitable for water harvesting: the Boolean analysis showed that 36% of the basin was suitable for in situ and ex situ systems, while the weighted overlay analysis showed that 6–24% of the basin was highly suitable. Rainfall has the highest influence on suitability for water harvesting. Implementing water harvesting in nonagricultural land use types may further increase the benefit. Assessing water harvesting suitability at the larger catchment scale lays the foundation for modeling of water harvesting at mesoscale, which enables analysis of the potential and implications of upscaling of water harvesting practices for building resilience against climatic shocks. A complete water harvesting suitability study requires socioeconomic analysis and stakeholder consultation.

  7. Scaling and Numerical Model Evaluation of Snow-Cover Effects on the Generation and Modification of Daytime Mesoscale Circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segal, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Ye, Z.

    1991-04-01

    Consideration of the sensible heat flux characteristics over a snow surface suggests a significant diminution in the magnitude of the flux, compared to that over a snow-free surface under the same environmental conditions. Consequently, the existence of snow-covered mesoscale areas adjacent to snow-free areas produces horizontal thermal gradients in the lower atmosphere during the daytime, possibly resulting in a `snow breeze.' In addition, suppression of the daytime thermally induced upslope flow over snow-covered slopes is likely to occur. The present paper provides scaling and modeling evaluations of these situations, with quantification of the generated and modified circulations. These evaluations suggest that under ideal situations involved with uniform snow cover over large areas, particularly in late winter and early spring, a noticeable `snow breeze' is likely to develop. Additionally: suppression of the daytime thermally induced upslope flow is significant and may even result in a daytime drainage flow. The effects of bare ground patchiness in the snow cover on these circulations are also explored, both for flat terrain and slope-flow situations. A patchiness fraction greater than 0.5 is found to result in a noticeably reduced snow-breeze circulation, while a patchiness fraction of only 0.1 caused the simulated daytime drainage flow over slopes to he reversed.

  8. Electronic and Magnetic Properties of Transition-Metal Oxide Nanocomposites: A Tight-Binding Modeling at Mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Yuan-Yen; Zhu, Jian-Xin

    Transition metal oxides (TMOs) exhibit many emergent phenomena ranging from high-temperature superconductivity and giant magnetoresistance to magnetism and ferroelectricity. In addition, when TMOs are interfaced with each other, new functionalities can arise, which are absent in individual components. In this talk, I will present an overview on our recent efforts in theoretical understanding of the electronic and magnetic properties TMO nanocomposites. In particular, I will introduce our recently developed tight-binding modeling of these properties arising from the interplay of competing interactions at the interfaces of planar and pillar nanocomposites. Our theoretical tool package will provide a unique capability to address the emergent phenomena in TMO nanocomposites and their mesoscale response to such effects like strain and microstructures at the interfaces, and ultimately help establish design principles of new multifunctionality with TMOs. This work was carried out under the auspices of the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy at LANL under Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25396, and was supported by the LANL LDRD Program.

  9. Modeling of meteorology, chemistry and aerosol for the 2017 Utah Winter Fine Particle Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; McDonald, B.; Ahmadov, R.; Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Fibiger, D. L.; McDuffie, E. E.; Womack, C.; Brown, S. S.; Moravek, A.; Murphy, J. G.; Trainer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Utah Winter Fine Particle Study (UWFPS-17) field project took place during January and February of 2017 within the populated region of the Great Salt Lake, Utah. The study focused on understanding the meteorology and chemistry associated with high particulate matter (PM) levels often observed near Salt Lake City during stable wintertime conditions. Detailed composition and meteorological observations were taken from the NOAA Twin-Otter aircraft and several surface sites during the study period, and extremely high aerosol conditions were encountered for two cold-pool episodes occurring in the last 2 weeks of January. A clear understanding of the photochemical and aerosol processes leading to these high PM events is still lacking. Here we present high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, PM and chemistry over Utah from January 13 to February 1, 2017 using the WRF/Chem photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology is difficult due to the complex terrain and shallow inversion layers. We discuss the approach and limitations of the simulated meteorology, and evaluate low-level pollutant mixing using vertical profiles from missed airport approaches by the NOAA Twin-Otter performed routinely during each flight. Full photochemical simulations are calculated using NOx, ammonia and VOC emissions from the U.S. EPA NEI-2011 emissions inventory. Comparisons of the observed vertical column amounts of NOx, ammonia, aerosol nitrate and ammonium with model results shows the inventory estimates for ammonia emissions are low by a factor of four and NOx emissions are low by nearly a factor of two. The partitioning of both nitrate and NH3 between gas and particle phase depends strongly on the NH3 and NOx emissions to the model and calculated NOx to nitrate conversion rates. These rates are underestimated by gas-phase chemistry alone, even though surface snow albedo increases photolysis rates by nearly a factor of two. Several additional conversion

  10. MODELING OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROUNDWATER FLOW AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şaban YURTÇU

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, modeling of the effect of rainfall, flow and evaporation as independent variables on the change of underground water levels as dependent variables were investigated by fuzzy logic (FL. In the study, total 396 values taken from six observation stations belong to Afyon inferior basin in Akarçay from 1977 to 1989 years were used. Using the monthly average values of stations, the change of underground water level was modeled by FL. It is observed that the results obtained from FL and the observations are compatible with each other. This shows FL modeling can be used to estimate groundwater levels from the appropriate meteorological value.

  11. EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

  12. Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hristov, Y; Oxley, G; Žagar, M

    2014-01-01

    The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-ε turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies

  13. Mesoscale model simulation of low level equatorial winds over Borneo during the haze episode of September 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, Mastura

    2009-08-01

    The large-scale vegetation fires instigated by the local farmers during the dry period of the major El Niño event in 1997 can be considered as one of the worst environmental disasters that have occurred in southeast Asia in recent history. This study investigated the local meteorology characteristics of an equatorial environment within a domain that includes the northwestern part of Borneo from the 17 to 27 September 1997 during the height of the haze episode by utilizing a limited area three-dimensional meteorological and dispersion model, The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). Daily land and sea breeze conditions near the northwestern coast of Borneo in the state of Sarawak, Malaysia were predicted with moderate success by the index of agreement of less than one between the observed and simulated values for wind speed and a slight overprediction of 2.3 of the skill indicator that evaluates the standard deviation to the observed values. The innermost domain of study comprises an area of 24,193 km2, from approximately 109°E to 111°E, and from 1°N to 2.3°N, which includes a part of the South China Sea. Tracer analysis of air particles that were sourced in the state of Sarawak on the island of Borneo verified the existence of the landward and shoreward movements of the air during the simulation of the low level wind field. Polluted air particles were transported seawards during night-time, and landwards during daytime, highlighting the recirculation features of aged and newer air particles during the length of eleven days throughout the model simulation. Near calm conditions at low levels were simulated by the trajectory analysis from midnight to mid-day on the 22 of September 1997. Low-level turbulence within the planetary boundary layer in terms of the total kinetic energy was weak, congruent with the weak strength of low level winds that reduced the ability of the air to transport the pollutants. Statistical evaluation showed that parameters such as the systematic

  14. Constructing irregular surfaces to enclose macromolecular complexes for mesoscale modeling using the discrete surface charge optimization (DISCO) algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Beard, Daniel A; Schlick, Tamar

    2003-12-01

    minimizer) is efficient and does not depend on the initial assigned values, and that the residual is acceptable when the distance to the model surface is close to, or larger than, the Debye length. We illustrate applications of DiSCO's model-building procedure to chromatin folding and supercoiled DNA bound to Hin and Fis proteins. DiSCO is generally applicable to other interesting macromolecular systems for which mesoscale models are appropriate, to yield a resolution between the all-atom representative and the polymer level. Copyright 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 24: 2063-2074, 2003

  15. Direct Radiative Impacts of Central American Biomass Burning Smoke Aerosols: Analysis from a Coupled Aerosol-Radiation-Meteorology Model RAMS-AROMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.; Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.

    2005-12-01

    Considerable efforts including various field experiments have been carried out in the last decade for studying the regional climatic impact of smoke aerosols produced by biomass burning activities in Africa and South America. In contrast, only few investigations have been conducted for Central American Biomass Burning (CABB) region. Using a coupled aerosol-radiation-meteorology model called RAMS-AROMA together with various ground-based observations, we present a comprehensive analysis of the smoke direct radiative impacts on the surface energy budget, boundary layer evolution, and e precipitation process during the CABB events in Spring 2003. Quantitative estimates are also made regarding the transboundary carbon mass to the U.S. in the form of smoke particles. Buult upon the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model, the RAMS AROMA has several features including Assimilation and Radiation Online Modeling of Aerosols (AROMA) algorithms. The model simulates smoke transport by using hourly smoke emission inventory from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) geostationary satellite database. It explicitly considers the smoke effects on the radiative transfer at each model time step and model grid, thereby coupling the dynamical processes and aerosol transport. Comparison with ground-based observation show that the simulation realistically captured the smoke transport timeline and distribution from daily to hourly scales. The effects of smoke radiative extinction on the decrease of 2m air temperature (2mT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and boundary layer height over the land surface are also quantified. Warming due to smoke absorption of solar radiation can be found in the lower troposphere over the ocean, but not near the underlying land surface. The increase of boundary layer stability produces a positive feedback where more smoke particles are trapped in the lower boundary layer. These changes in temperature, surface

  16. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) manages the national hydrological-meteorological service, the task of which is to maintain the network of stations, process data, as well issue warnings, reports and announcements. There are 5 divisions of IMWM scattered all over Poland. Each division includes numerous stations and the scientific-research departments. The data gathered, processed and analysed in IMWM are space-related, therefore spatial information systems are indispensable for its processing and visualisation. The project of GIS application in (IMWM) will be discussed in the presentation. With the divisions being so dispersed, numerous and heterogeneous in structure, GIS implementation is very complicated. On the one hand GIS should enable advanced spatial analyses to be carried out by the research, as well as data processing departments. On the other hand, it should provide passive access to a limited scope of information (e.g. for outside customers). Need analysis was carried out first. It resulted in proposals concerning the content of shared resources of geometrical data and connections with attribute data, as well as in proposals of GIS use in routine works. A model was prepared using various types of GIS software depending on the requirements of each division. It is based on standard solutions involving professional GIS, desktop GIS and simple tools for data presentation. In some departments the specialised software had to be taken into account (e.g. satellite data processing). It is necessary to develop and implement dedicated research methods for some individual tasks. The analysis of mapping requirements showed that there is a need to prepare thematic maps at least at two levels of detail. Presently, the works are concentrated on assembling thematic layers for a general map (at 1: 500000 scale) sufficient for many applications, including data visualisation in the Internet and IMWM publications, as well as the tool for measurements and

  17. Evaluation of Savannah River Plant emergency response models using standard and nonstandard meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, D.D.

    1984-01-01

    Two computer codes have been developed for operational use in performing real time evaluations of atmospheric releases from the Savannah River Plant (SRP) in South Carolina. These codes, based on mathematical models, are part of the SRP WIND (Weather Information and Display) automated emergency response system. Accuracy of ground level concentrations from a Gaussian puff-plume model and a two-dimensional sequential puff model are being evaluated with data from a series of short range diffusion experiments using sulfur hexafluoride as a tracer. The models use meteorological data collected from 7 towers on SRP and at the 300 m WJBF-TV tower about 15 km northwest of SRP. The winds and the stability, which is based on turbulence measurements, are measured at the 60 m stack heights. These results are compared to downwind concentrations using only standard meteorological data, i.e., adjusted 10 m winds and stability determined by the Pasquill-Turner stability classification method. Scattergrams and simple statistics were used for model evaluations. Results indicate predictions within accepted limits for the puff-plume code and a bias in the sequential puff model predictions using the meteorologist-adjusted nonstandard data. 5 references, 4 figures, 2 tables

  18. Comparison of HYSPLIT-4 model simulations of the ETEX data, using meteorological input data of differing spatial and temporal resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, G.D.; Mills, G.A.; Draxler, R.R.

    1997-01-01

    Model simulations of air concentrations during ETEX-1 using the HYSPLIT-4 (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories, version 4) code and analysed meteorological data fields provided by ECMWF and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are presented here. The HYSPLIT-4 model is a complete system for computing simple trajectories to complex dispersion and deposition simulations using either puff or particle approaches. A mixed dispersion algorithm is employed in this study: puffs in the horizontal and particles in the vertical

  19. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

  20. Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

    2012-01-01

    In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

  1. An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria

    2017-01-01

    of the output from 25 NWP models is presented for three sites in northern Europe characterized by simple terrain. The models are evaluated sing a number of statistical properties relevant to wind energy and verified with observations. On average the models have small wind speed biases offshore and aloft ( ... %) and larger biases closer to the surface over land (> 7 %). A similar pattern is detected for the inter-model spread. Strongly stable and strongly unstable atmospheric stability conditions are associated with larger wind speed errors. Strong indications are found that using a grid spacing larger than 3 km...... decreases the accuracy of the models, but we found no evidence that using a grid spacing smaller than 3 km is necessary for these simple sites. Applying the models to a simple wind energy offshore wind farm highlights the importance of capturing the correct distributions of wind speed and direction....

  2. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  3. Mesoscale modeling of the production and the three-dimensional transport of nitrogen oxides in thunderstorms; Mesoskalige Modellierung der Produktion und des dreidimensionalen Transports von Stickoxiden durch Gewitter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, T.

    2000-07-01

    Nitrogen oxides, NO{sub x} = NO + NO{sub 2}, play a fundamental role in tropospheric chemistry. Compared to other sources, the contribution of lightning induced NO{sub x} (LNO{sub x}) is known with considerable uncertainties and difficult to determine experimentally. The distribution of nitrogen oxides in an isolated thunderstorm is investigated using a modified version of the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with cloud-scale resolution. A Lagrangian particle model has been developed to represent the NO{sub x} released by individual flashes. The position of the flash, the flash type, the geometrical properties of the channel, and the amount of emitted NO{sub x} are introduced to the MM5 in a parameterized form. On July 21, 1998, during the European lightning nitrogen oxides project (EULINOX) field campaign, a supercell development was observed in the German alpine foreland. Anvil penetrations by the DLR Falcon aircraft contributed high resolution profiles of NO{sub x}. DLR radar observation covered the complete life cycle of the thunderstorm. The lightning activity was recorded with a lightning positioning and tracking system (LPATS) run by local power suppliers, while radiosonde and aircraft measurements supplied detailed information on the atmospheric stratification ahead of the thunderstorm. This meteorological information was used to initalize a cloud-scale MM5 simulation. The modeled thunderstorm reproduces many observed properties, e.g. cell splitting, propagation speed and direction, anvil and overshooting top height, and WER (weak echo region). The number of simulated cloud-to-ground flashes, as well as the temporal evolution of the lightning activity are comparable to the LPAT observations. The general transport properties of the model thunderstorm are investigated using an inert PBL-tracer, as well as trajectory analysis. The simulated lightning activity leads to the release of approximately 1 000 000 NO{sub x}-particles. The thunderstorm produces 28

  4. Mesoscale Climate Evaluation Using Grid Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos Velho, H. F.; Freitas, S. R.; Souto, R. P.; Charao, A. S.; Ferraz, S.; Roberti, D. R.; Streck, N.; Navaux, P. O.; Maillard, N.; Collischonn, W.; Diniz, G.; Radin, B.

    2012-04-01

    The CLIMARS project is focused to establish an operational environment for seasonal climate prediction for the Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The dynamical downscaling will be performed with the use of several software platforms and hardware infrastructure to carry out the investigation on mesoscale of the global change impact. The grid computing takes advantage of geographically spread out computer systems, connected by the internet, for enhancing the power of computation. The ensemble climate prediction is an appropriated application for processing on grid computing, because the integration of each ensemble member does not have a dependency on information from another ensemble members. The grid processing is employed to compute the 20-year climatology and the long range simulations under ensemble methodology. BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model) is a mesoscale model developed from a version of the RAMS (from the Colorado State University - CSU, USA). BRAMS model is the tool for carrying out the dynamical downscaling from the IPCC scenarios. Long range BRAMS simulations will provide data for some climate (data) analysis, and supply data for numerical integration of different models: (a) Regime of the extreme events for temperature and precipitation fields: statistical analysis will be applied on the BRAMS data, (b) CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled Chemistry Aerosol Tracer Transport - BRAMS) is an environmental prediction system that will be used to evaluate if the new standards of temperature, rain regime, and wind field have a significant impact on the pollutant dispersion in the analyzed regions, (c) MGB-IPH (Portuguese acronym for the Large Basin Model (MGB), developed by the Hydraulic Research Institute, (IPH) from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Brazil) will be employed to simulate the alteration of the river flux under new climate patterns. Important meteorological input variables for the MGB-IPH are the precipitation (most relevant

  5. A meso-scale model to study the compressive strength of woven carbon fiber reinforced plastics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schormans, J.M.J.; Remmers, J.J.C.; Wilson, W.; Deshpande, V.S.

    2016-01-01

    Modeling kink-band formation in woven composites using a detailed micro-model is numerically expensive. In order to reduce the computational resources, a method to homogenize fiber-tows is proposed which uses a rules of mixture approach. The method is tested by comparing the stiffness and

  6. Meso-scale modeling of air pollution transport/chemistry/deposition and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Toshihiro

    2007-01-01

    Transport/chemistry/deposition model for atmospheric trace chemical species is now regarded as an important tool for an understanding of the effects of various human activities, such as fuel combustion and deforestation, on human health, eco-system, and climate and for planning of appropriate control of emission sources. Several 'comprehensive' models have been proposed such as RADM (Chang, et al., 1987), STEM-II (Carmichael, et al., 1986), and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model, e.g., EPA website, 2003); the 'comprehensive' models include not only gas/aerosol phase chemistry but also aqueous phase chemistry in cloud/rain water in addition to the processes of advection, diffusion, wet deposition (mass transfer between aqueous and gas/aerosol phases), and dry deposition. The target of the development of the 'comprehensive' model will be that the model can correctly reproduce mass balance of various chemical species in the atmosphere with keeping adequate accuracy for calculated concentration distributions of chemical species. For the purpose, one of the important problems is a reliable wet deposition modeling, and here, we introduce two types of methods of 'cloud-resolving' and 'non-cloud-resolving' modeling for the wet deposition of pollutants. (author)

  7. High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

    2004-01-01

    High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

  8. Mesoscale atmospheric modeling of accidental toxic and radioactive releases for emergency response at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Steen, B.L.; Fast, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    In August of 1991, the Environmental Transport Group (ETG) began the development of an advanced Emergency Response (ER) system based upon the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System 1 (RAMS). This model simulates the three-dimensional, time-dependent, flow field and thermodynamic structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). A companion Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model 2 (LPDM) simulates contaminant transport based on the flow and turbulence fields generated by RAMS. The current report describes progress to date on this project in the areas of data development, data assimilation, and operational (real-time) procedures. In particular, a diagnostic capability for simulating contaminant transport is demonstrated

  9. Modeling Hot-Spot Contributions in Shocked High Explosives at the Mesoscale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrier, Danielle [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-12

    When looking at performance of high explosives, the defects within the explosive become very important. Plastic bonded explosives, or PBXs, contain voids of air and bonder between the particles of explosive material that aid in the ignition of the explosive. These voids collapse in high pressure shock conditions, which leads to the formation of hot spots. Hot spots are localized high temperature and high pressure regions that cause significant changes in the way the explosive material detonates. Previously hot spots have been overlooked with modeling, but now scientists are realizing their importance and new modeling systems that can accurately model hot spots are underway.

  10. Pembangunan Aplikasi Pengolahan Data Unsur Cuaca Pada Stasiun Meteorologi Kota Tegal Berbasis Model Waterfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khambali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Untuk mendapatkan suatu pengolahan data yang cepat dan akurat serta dikelola dengan baik tentunya harus mempunyai sebuah sistem pengelolaan yang baik. Aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca disusulkan pada penelitian ini. Dengan menggunakan model waterfall menjadikan tahapan dalam pengembangan sistem yang dibuat menjadi terstruktur dengan baik tahapannya. Dengan dibangunnya aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca, maka kendala yang dihadapi oleh stasiun meteorologi Tegal khususnya dibagian pengamatan yaitu dalam penghitungan unsur cuaca dapat ditanggulangi sehingga dapat mempermudah dalam memperoleh laporan tentang data unsur cuaca.

  11. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  12. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  13. Application of two phosphorus models with different complexities in a mesoscale river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Guse

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The water balance and phosphorus inputs of surface waters of the Weiße Elster catchment, Germany, have been quantified using the models GROWA/MEPhos and SWAT. A comparison of the model results shows small differences in the mean long-term total runoff for the entire study area. All relevant pathways of phosphorus transport were considered in MEPhos with phosphorus inputs resulting to about 65% from point sources. SWAT focuses on agricultural areas and estimates a phosphorus input of about 60% through erosion. The mean annual phosphorus input from erosion calculated with SWAT is six times higher than the estimation with MEPhos due to the differing model concepts. This shows the uncertainty contributed by the modelling description of phosphorus pathways.

  14. Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations of Open Cellular Convection Over the Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vincent, Claire Louise; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Kelly, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The atmospheric conditions during an observed case of open cellular convection over the North Sea were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model. Wind, temperature and water vapour mixing ratio profiles from the WRF simulation were used to initialize an idealized...... version of the model, which excluded the effects of topography, surface inhomogeneities and large-scale weather forcing. Cells with an average diameter of 17.4 km developed. Simulations both with and without a capping inversion were made, and the cell-scale kinetic energy budget was calculated for each...... case. By considering all sources of explicit diffusion in the model, the budgets were balanced. In comparison with previous work based on observational studies, the use of three-dimensional, gridded model data afforded the possibility of calculating all terms in the budgets, which showed...

  15. Motivational Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Lee

    1993-01-01

    Describes an introductory meteorology course for nonacademic high school students. The course is made hands-on by the use of an educational software program offered by Accu-Weather. The program contains a meteorology database and instructional modules. (PR)

  16. Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Msadek, Rym; Kwon, Young-Oh; Booth, James F.; Zarzycki, Colin

    2018-05-01

    It has been hypothesized that the ocean mesoscale (particularly ocean fronts) can affect the strength and location of the overlying extratropical atmospheric storm track. In this paper, we examine whether resolving ocean fronts in global climate models indeed leads to significant improvement in the simulated storm track, defined using low level meridional wind. Two main sets of experiments are used: (i) global climate model Community Earth System Model version 1 with non-eddy-resolving standard resolution or with ocean eddy-resolving resolution, and (ii) the same but with the GFDL Climate Model version 2. In case (i), it is found that higher ocean resolution leads to a reduction of a very warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the east coasts of the U.S. and Japan seen in standard resolution models. This in turn leads to a reduction of storm track strength near the coastlines, by up to 20%, and a better location of the storm track maxima, over the western boundary currents as observed. In case (ii), the change in absolute SST bias in these regions is less notable, and there are modest (10% or less) increases in surface storm track, and smaller changes in the free troposphere. In contrast, in the southern Indian Ocean, case (ii) shows most sensitivity to ocean resolution, and this coincides with a larger change in mean SST as ocean resolution is changed. Where the ocean resolution does make a difference, it consistently brings the storm track closer in appearance to that seen in ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. Overall, for the range of ocean model resolutions used here (1° versus 0.1°) we find that the differences in SST gradient have a small effect on the storm track strength whilst changes in absolute SST between experiments can have a larger effect. The latter affects the land-sea contrast, air-sea stability, surface latent heat flux, and the boundary layer baroclinicity in such a way as to reduce storm track activity adjacent to the western boundary in the N

  17. Network-based Modeling of Mesoscale Catchments - The Hydrology Perspective of Glowa-danube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, R.; Escher-Vetter, H.; Hennicker, R.; Mauser, W.; Niemeyer, S.; Reichstein, M.; Tenhunen, J.

    Within the GLOWA initiative of the German Ministry for Research and Educa- tion (BMBF), the project GLOWA-Danube is funded to establish a transdisciplinary network-based decision support tool for water related issues in the Upper Danube wa- tershed. It aims to develop and validate integration techniques, integrated models and integrated monitoring procedures and to implement them in the network-based De- cision Support System DANUBIA. An accurate description of processes involved in energy, water and matter fluxes and turnovers requires an intense collaboration and exchange of water related expertise of different scientific disciplines. DANUBIA is conceived as a distributed expert network and is developed on the basis of re-useable, refineable, and documented sub-models. In order to synthesize a common understand- ing between the project partners, a standardized notation of parameters and functions and a platform-independent structure of computational methods and interfaces has been established using the Unified Modeling Language UML. DANUBIA is object- oriented, spatially distributed and raster-based at its core. It applies the concept of "proxels" (Process Pixel) as its basic object, which has different dimensions depend- ing on the viewing scale and connects to its environment through fluxes. The presented study excerpts the hydrological view point of GLOWA-Danube, its approach of model coupling and network based communication (using the Remote Method Invocation RMI), the object-oriented technology to simulate physical processes and interactions at the land surface and the methodology to treat the issue of spatial and temporal scal- ing in large, heterogeneous catchments. The mechanisms applied to communicate data and model parameters across the typical discipline borders will be demonstrated from the perspective of a land-surface object, which comprises the capabilities of interde- pendent expert models for snowmelt, soil water movement, runoff formation, plant

  18. MESOI Version 2.0: an interactive mesoscale Lagrangian puff dispersion model with deposition and decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Glantz, C.S.

    1983-11-01

    MESOI Version 2.0 is an interactive Lagrangian puff model for estimating the transport, diffusion, deposition and decay of effluents released to the atmosphere. The model is capable of treating simultaneous releases from as many as four release points, which may be elevated or at ground-level. The puffs are advected by a horizontal wind field that is defined in three dimensions. The wind field may be adjusted for expected topographic effects. The concentration distribution within the puffs is initially assumed to be Gaussian in the horizontal and vertical. However, the vertical concentration distribution is modified by assuming reflection at the ground and the top of the atmospheric mixing layer. Material is deposited on the surface using a source depletion, dry deposition model and a washout coefficient model. The model also treats the decay of a primary effluent species and the ingrowth and decay of a single daughter species using a first order decay process. This report is divided into two parts. The first part discusses the theoretical and mathematical bases upon which MESOI Version 2.0 is based. The second part contains the MESOI computer code. The programs were written in the ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 and were developed on a VAX 11/780 computer. 43 references, 14 figures, 13 tables

  19. Development of a prototype mesoscale computer model incorporating treatment of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apsimon, H.; Kitson, K.; Fawcett, M.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1984-01-01

    Models are available for simulating dispersal of accidental releases, using mass-consistent wind-fields and accounting for site-specific topography. These techniques were examined critically to see if they might be improved, and to assess their limitations. An improved model, windfield adjusted for topography (WAFT), was developed (with advantages over MATHEW used in the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability - ARAC system). To simulate dispersion in the windfields produced by WAFT and calculate time integrated air concentrations and dry and wet deposition the TOMCATS model was developed. It treats the release as an assembly of pseudo-particles using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate turbulent displacements. It allows for larger eddy effects in the horizontal turbulence spectrum. Wet deposition is calculated using inhomogeneous rainfields evolving in time and space. The models were assessed, applying them to hypothetical releases in complex terrain, using typical data applicable in accident conditions, and undertaking sensitivity studies. One finds considerable uncertainty in results produced by these models. Although useful for post-facto analysis, such limitations cast doubt on their advantages, relative to simpler techniques, during an actual emergency

  20. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  1. Random variability in mesoscale wind observations and implications for diffusion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanna, S.R. [Sigma Research Corp., Concord, MA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The investigation reported in this paper grew out of a preliminary analysis of methods by which regional air quality models such as the Regional Oxidant Model account for horizontal transport and diffusion. It was discovered that there is a variety of often inconsistent methods used to parameterize horizontal diffusion at meso- and regional scales, and the time seemed ripe to review and compare and contrast these schemes. This paper provides a brief overview of the major issues that were uncovered and lists a few specific examples of the technical approaches that are used. Subsequent sections cover the basic physics of horizontal diffusion, the characteristics of observed wind fields, and methods of parameterizing horizontal diffusion in air quality models.

  2. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  3. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  4. Mesoscale modeling and simulation of microstructure evolution during dynamic recrystallization of a Ni-based superalloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Fei [University of Nottingham, Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Institute of Forming Technology and Equipment, Shanghai (China); Cui, Zhenshan [Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Institute of Forming Technology and Equipment, Shanghai (China); Ou, Hengan [University of Nottingham, Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Nottingham (United Kingdom); Long, Hui [University of Sheffield, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2016-10-15

    Microstructural evolution and plastic flow characteristics of a Ni-based superalloy were investigated using a simulative model that couples the basic metallurgical principle of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) with the two-dimensional (2D) cellular automaton (CA). Variation of dislocation density with local strain of deformation is considered for accurate determination of the microstructural evolution during DRX. The grain topography, the grain size and the recrystallized fraction can be well predicted by using the developed CA model, which enables to the establishment of the relationship between the flow stress, dislocation density, recrystallized fraction volume, recrystallized grain size and the thermomechanical parameters. (orig.)

  5. The dynamic background of a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model of the atmospheric circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitza, H.

    1987-01-01

    The anelastically approximated basic equations are transformed into a rectangular computational domain. The integration is performed with the McCormack-Scheme, while the pressure is calculated by a CG-method (KAPITZA and EPPEL, 1987). Useful boundary conditions are discussed. The model is tested with stratified flow over isolated hills. Analytic solutions derived from the linearized equations are compared with results of the linear model version. Very good agreement is found as long as wave reflexions at the upper boundary are prevented. With 27 figs [de

  6. Numerical experiments with assimilation of the mean and unresolved meteorological conditions into large-eddy simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Esau, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Micrometeorology, city comfort, land use management and air quality monitoring increasingly become important environmental issues. To serve the needs, meteorology needs to achieve a serious advance in representation and forecast on micro-scales (meters to 100 km) called meteorological terra incognita. There is a suitable numerical tool, namely, the large-eddy simulation modelling (LES) to support the development. However, at present, the LES is of limited utility for applications. The study a...

  7. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    13

    2015-10-02

    Oct 2, 2015 ... School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences ... Though global models predicted the large scale event, but they had failed to predict realistic ... this study is to assess the impact of land state conditions in ...... Chand, R and C Singh 2015 Movements of western disturbance and associated cloud convection J.

  8. Validation of a mesoscale hydrological model in a small-scale forested catchment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2016), s. 27-41 ISSN 1998-9563 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : hydrological modelling * small catchment * soil moisture * subsurface lateral flow * SWIM Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.754, year: 2016

  9. The Challenge of Forecasting the Onset and Development of Radiation Fog Using Mesoscale Atmospheric Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, G.J.; Ronda, R.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    The numerical weather prediction of radiation fog is challenging, as many models typically show large biases for the timing of the onset and dispersal of the fog, as well as for its depth and liquid water content. To understand the role of physical processes, i.e. turbulence, radiation, land-surface

  10. Ecohydrological modelling of water discharge and nitrate loads in a mesoscale lowland catchment, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Fohrer

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study are to identify the capacities of applying an ecohydrological model for simulating flow and to assess the impact of point and non-point source pollution on nitrate loads in a complex lowland catchment, which has special hydrological characteristics in comparison with those of other catchments. The study area Kielstau catchment has a size of approximately 50 km2 and is located in the North German lowlands. The water quality is not only influenced by the predominating agricultural land use in the catchment as cropland and pasture, but also by six municipal wastewater treatment plants.

    Ecohydrological models like the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool are useful tools for simulating nutrient loads in river catchments. Diffuse entries from the agriculture resulting from fertilizers as well as punctual entries from the wastewater treatment plants are implemented in the model set-up.

    The results of this study show good agreement between simulated and measured daily discharges with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and 0.88 for the calibration period (November 1998 to October 2004; 0.75 and 0.92 for the validation period (November 2004 to December 2007. The model efficiency for daily nitrate loads is 0.64 and 0.5 for the calibration period (June 2005 to May 2007 and the validation period (June 2007 to December 2007, respectively. The study revealed that SWAT performed satisfactorily in simulating daily flow and nitrate loads at the lowland catchment in Northern Germany.

  11. Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-12-01

    Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

  12. Thermomechanical properties of polypropylene-based lightweight composites modeled on the mesoscale

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dostálová, Darina; Kafka, Vratislav; Vokoun, David; Heller, Luděk; Matějka, L.; Kadeřávek, Lukáš; Pěnčík, J.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 26, Oct (2017), s. 5166-5172 ISSN 1059-9495 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36566G Institutional support: RVO:68378271 ; RVO:68378297 Keywords : building material * composite * creep tests * mesomechanical model * thermal insulation Subject RIV: JI - Composite Materials OBOR OECD: Composites (including laminates, reinforced plastics, cermets, combined natural and synthetic fibre fabrics Impact factor: 1.331, year: 2016

  13. A hybrid, coupled approach for modeling charged fluids from the nano to the mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, James; Frischknecht, Amalie L.; Perego, Mauro; Bochev, Pavel

    2017-11-01

    We develop and demonstrate a new, hybrid simulation approach for charged fluids, which combines the accuracy of the nonlocal, classical density functional theory (cDFT) with the efficiency of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) equations. The approach is motivated by the fact that the more accurate description of the physics in the cDFT model is required only near the charged surfaces, while away from these regions the PNP equations provide an acceptable representation of the ionic system. We formulate the hybrid approach in two stages. The first stage defines a coupled hybrid model in which the PNP and cDFT equations act independently on two overlapping domains, subject to suitable interface coupling conditions. At the second stage we apply the principles of the alternating Schwarz method to the hybrid model by using the interface conditions to define the appropriate boundary conditions and volume constraints exchanged between the PNP and the cDFT subdomains. Numerical examples with two representative examples of ionic systems demonstrate the numerical properties of the method and its potential to reduce the computational cost of a full cDFT calculation, while retaining the accuracy of the latter near the charged surfaces.

  14. Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talerko, Nikolai

    2005-01-01

    This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137 Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137 Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition

  15. Multiscale modeling of dislocation processes in BCC tantalum: bridging atomistic and mesoscale simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, L H; Tang, M; Moriarty, J A

    2001-01-01

    Plastic deformation in bcc metals at low temperatures and high-strain rates is controlled by the motion of a/2 screw dislocations, and understanding the fundamental atomistic processes of this motion is essential to develop predictive multiscale models of crystal plasticity. The multiscale modeling approach presented here for bcc Ta is based on information passing, where results of simulations at the atomic scale are used in simulations of plastic deformation at mesoscopic length scales via dislocation dynamics (DD). The relevant core properties of a/2 screw dislocations in Ta have been obtained using quantum-based interatomic potentials derived from model generalized pseudopotential theory and an ab-initio data base together with an accurate Green's-function simulation method that implements flexible boundary conditions. In particular, the stress-dependent activation enthalpy for the lowest-energy kink-pair mechanism has been calculated and fitted to a revealing analytic form. This is the critical quantity determining dislocation mobility in the DD simulations, and the present activation enthalpy is found to be in good agreement with the previous empirical form used to explain the temperature dependence of the yield stress

  16. Comparison of the new intermediate complex atmospheric research (ICAR) model with the WRF model in a mesoscale catchment in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härer, Stefan; Bernhardt, Matthias; Gutmann, Ethan; Bauer, Hans-Stefan; Schulz, Karsten

    2017-04-01

    Until recently, a large gap existed in the atmospheric downscaling strategies. On the one hand, computationally efficient statistical approaches are widely used, on the other hand, dynamic but CPU-intensive numeric atmospheric models like the weather research and forecast (WRF) model exist. The intermediate complex atmospheric research (ICAR) model developed at NCAR (Boulder, Colorado, USA) addresses this gap by combining the strengths of both approaches: the process-based structure of a dynamic model and its applicability in a changing climate as well as the speed of a parsimonious modelling approach which facilitates the modelling of ensembles and a straightforward way to test new parametrization schemes as well as various input data sources. However, the ICAR model has not been tested in Europe and on slightly undulated terrain yet. This study now evaluates for the first time the ICAR model to WRF model runs in Central Europe comparing a complete year of model results in the mesoscale Attert catchment (Luxembourg). In addition to these modelling results, we also describe the first implementation of ICAR on an Intel Phi architecture and consequently perform speed tests between the Vienna cluster, a standard workstation and the use of an Intel Phi coprocessor. Finally, the study gives an outlook on sensitivity studies using slightly different input data sources.

  17. Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baldassare Bacchi

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This introductory paper presents and summarises recent research on meteorological and hydrological aspects of floods in the Alps. The research activities were part of the international research project RAPHAEL (Runoff and Atmospheric Processes for flood HAzard forEcasting and controL together with experiments within the Special Observing Period-SOP conducted in autumn 1999 for the Mesoscale Alpine Programme —MAP. The investigations were based on both field experiments and numerical simulations, using meteorological and hydrological models, of ten major floods that occurred in the past decade in the European Alps. The two basins investigated were the Ticino (6599 km2 at the Lago Maggiore outlet on the southern side of the Alps and the Ammer catchment (709 km2 in the Bavarian Alps. These catchments and their sub-catchments cover an appropriate range of spatial scales with which to investigate and test in an operational context the potential of both mesoscale meteorological and distributed hydrological models for flood forecasting. From the data analyses and model simulations described in this Special Issue, the major sources of uncertainties for flood forecasts in mid-size mountain basins are outlined and the accuracy flood forecasts is assessed. Keywords: floods, mountain hydrology, meteorological models, Alps

  18. Mathematical modeling of a four-stroke resonant engine for micro and mesoscale applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

    2014-12-01

    In order to mitigate frictional and leakage losses in small scale engines, a compliant engine design is proposed in which the piston in cylinder arrangement is replaced by a flexible cavity. A physics-based nonlinear lumped-parameter model is derived to predict the performance of a prototype engine. The model showed that the engine performance depends on input parameters, such as heat input, heat loss, and load on the engine. A sample simulation for a reference engine with octane fuel/air ratio of 0.043 resulted in an indicated thermal efficiency of 41.2%. For a fixed fuel/air ratio, higher output power is obtained for smaller loads and vice-versa. The heat loss from the engine and the work done on the engine during the intake stroke are found to decrease the indicated thermal efficiency. The ratio of friction work to indicated work in the prototype engine is about 8%, which is smaller in comparison to the traditional reciprocating engines.

  19. Mesoscale Modeling of Kinetic Phase Behaviors in Mg-B-H (Subcontract Report)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Thornton, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wood, B. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-10-13

    Storage of hydrogen on board vehicles is one of the critical enabling technologies for creating hydrogenfueled transportation systems that can reduce oil dependency and mitigate the long-term effects of fossil fuels on climate change. Stakeholders in developing hydrogen infrastructure are currently focused on highpressure storage at 350 bar and 700 bar, in part because no viable solid-phase storage material has emerged. Nevertheless, solid-state materials, including high-density hydrides, remain of interest because of their unique potential to meet all DOE targets and deliver hydrogen at lower pressures and higher on-board densities. A successful solution would significantly reduce costs and ensure the economic viability of a U.S. hydrogen infrastructure. The Mg(BH4)2-MgB2 system represents a highly promising solution because of its reasonable reaction enthalpy, high intrinsic capacity, and demonstrated reversibility, yet suffers from poor reaction kinetics. This subcontract aims to deliver a phase-field model for the kinetics of the evolution of the relevant phases within the Mg-B-H system during hydrogenation and dehydrogenation. This model will be used within a broader theory, synthesis, and characterization framework to study the properties of geometry-selected nanoparticles of pristine and doped MgB2/Mg(BH4)2 with two aims: (1) understand the intrinsic limitations in (de)hydrogenation; (2) devise strategies for improving thermodynamics and kinetics through nanostructuring.

  20. Meteorological perspective on intermediate range atmospheric dispersion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Hoven, I.

    1981-01-01

    The intermediate range of atmospheric transport and diffusion is defined as those dispersion processes which take place at downwind distances of 10 to 100 kilometers from pollutant sources. Meteorologists often define this range as the mesoscale. It is the range of distances where certain environmental assessments are of concern such as the determination of significant deterioration of visibility, the effect of effluent releases from tall stacks, and the effect of pollutant sources in rural settings upon the more distant urban centers. Atmospheric diffusion theory is based on steady state conditions and spatial homogeniety. Techniques must be developed to measure the inhomogenieties, models must be devised to account for the complexities, and a data base consisting of appropriate measured meteorological parameters concurrent with tracer gas concentrations should be collected

  1. Sensitivity of an Integrated Mesoscale Atmosphere and Agriculture Land Modeling System (WRF/CMAQ-EPIC) to MODIS Vegetation and Lightning Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteo...

  2. Constraining Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Production in Northeastern Pennsylvania Using Aircraft Observations and Mesoscale Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkley, Z.; Davis, K.; Lauvaux, T.; Miles, N.; Richardson, S.; Martins, D. K.; Deng, A.; Cao, Y.; Sweeney, C.; Karion, A.; Smith, M. L.; Kort, E. A.; Schwietzke, S.

    2015-12-01

    Leaks in natural gas infrastructure release methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated fugitive emission rate associated with the production phase varies greatly between studies, hindering our understanding of the natural gas energy efficiency. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional fugitive emission rates from natural gas production. Methane observations across the Marcellus region in northeastern Pennsylvania were obtained during a three week flight campaign in May 2015 performed by a team from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Monitoring Division and the University of Michigan. In addition to these data, CH4 observations were obtained from automobile campaigns during various periods from 2013-2015. An inventory of CH4 emissions was then created for various sources in Pennsylvania, including coalmines, enteric fermentation, industry, waste management, and unconventional and conventional wells. As a first-guess emission rate for natural gas activity, a leakage rate equal to 2% of the natural gas production was emitted at the locations of unconventional wells across PA. These emission rates were coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the chemistry module (WRF-Chem) and atmospheric CH4 concentration fields at 1km resolution were generated. Projected atmospheric enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations, and the emission rate from unconventional wells was adjusted to minimize errors between observations and simulation. We show that the modeled CH4 plume structures match observed plumes downwind of unconventional wells, providing confidence in the methodology. In all cases, the fugitive emission rate was found to be lower than our first guess. In this initial emission configuration, each well has been assigned the same fugitive emission rate, which can potentially impair our ability to match the observed spatial variability

  3. Meso-scale Modeling of Block Copolymers Self-Assembly in Casting Solutions for Membrane Manufacture

    KAUST Repository

    Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    Isoporous membranes manufactured from diblock copolymer are successfully produced at laboratory scale under controlled conditions. Because of the complex phenomena involved, membrane preparation requires trial and error methodologies to find the optimal conditions, leading to a considerable demand of resources. Experimental insights demonstrate that the self-assembly of the block copolymers in solution has an effect on the final membrane structure. Nevertheless, the complete understanding of these multi-scale phenomena is elusive. Herein we use the coarse-grained method Dissipative Particle Dynamics to study the self-assembly of block copolymers that are used for the preparation of the membranes. To simulate representative time and length scales, we introduce a framework for model reduction of polymer chain representations for dissipative particle dynamics, which preserves the properties governing the phase equilibria. We reduce the number of degrees of freedom by accounting for the correlation between beads in fine-grained models via power laws and the consistent scaling of the simulation parameters. The coarse-graining models are consistent with the experimental evidence, showing a morphological transition of the aggregates as the polymer concentration and solvent affinity change. We show that hexagonal packing of the micelles can occur in solution within different windows of polymer concentration depending on the solvent affinity. However, the shape and size dispersion of the micelles determine the characteristic arrangement. We describe the order of crew-cut micelles using a rigid-sphere approximation and propose different phase parameters that characterize the emergence of monodisperse-spherical micelles in solution. Additionally, we investigate the effect of blending asymmetric diblock copolymers (AB/AC) over the properties of the membranes. We observe that the co-assembly mechanism localizes the AC molecules at the interface of A and B domains, and induces

  4. Modeling for pollution dispersion and air quality. 3.: meteorological data and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertagna, Silvia

    2005-01-01

    To better and correctly choose the suitable modeling system to use, it is necessary previously to define with objective criteria the characteristic of the problem to be studied and to gather together a great amount of input data and information, needed by the model, regarding, namely, the meteorological diffusive conditions of the atmosphere, the characteristic of the emission source (type, number, site etc.) and the characteristic of the area of interest (as land use and orography). In this work, the main different typologies of input data, which occur to simulate the air pollutant dispersion, are described, together with the instruments to obtain them: they include the consultation and the elaboration of information coming from databases and inventories appositely built and often also the use of other models or dedicated SW programs [it

  5. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over Central Africa: influences of trade winds, subtropical high, ITCZ and vertical statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Ichoku, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    A fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), is used to simulate the transport of smoke aerosol over the Central Africa during February 2008. Smoke emission used in this study is specified from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) database derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. Model performance is evaluated using MODIS true color images, measured Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from space-borne MODIS (550 nm) and ground-based AERONET (500 nm), and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) level 1 and 2 products. The simulated smoke transport is in good agreement with the validation data. Analyzing from three smoke events, smoke is constrained in a narrow belt between the Equator and 10°N near the surface, with the interplay of trade winds, subtropical high, and ITCZ. At the 700 hpa level, smoke expands farther meridionally. Topography blocks the smoke transport to the southeast of study area, because of high mountains located near the Great Rift Valley region. The simulation with injection height of 650 m is consistent with CALIOP measurements. The particular phenomenon, aerosol above cloud, is studied statistically from CALIOP observations. The total percentage of aerosol above cloud is about 5%.

  6. Fine resolution atmospheric sulfate model driven by operational meteorological data: Comparison with observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benkovitz, C.M.; Schwartz, S.E.; Berkowitz, C.M.; Easter, R.C.

    1993-09-01

    The hypothesis that anthropogenic sulfur aerosol influences clear-sky and cloud albedo and can thus influence climate has been advanced by several investigators; current global-average climate forcing is estimated to be of comparable magnitude, but opposite sign, to longwave forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The high space and time variability of sulfate concentrations and column aerosol burdens have been established by observational data; however, geographic and time coverage provided by data from surface monitoring networks is very limited. Consistent regional and global estimates of sulfate aerosol loading, and the contributions to this loading from different sources can be obtained only by modeling studies. Here we describe a sub-hemispheric to global-scale Eulerian transport and transformation model for atmospheric sulfate and its precursors, driven by operational meteorological data, and report results of calculations for October, 1986 for the North Atlantic and adjacent continental regions. The model, which is based on the Global Chemistry Model uses meteorological data from the 6-hour forecast model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast to calculate transport and transformation of sulfur emissions. Time- and location-dependent dry deposition velocities were estimated using the methodology of Wesely and colleagues. Chemical reactions includes gaseous oxidation of SO 2 and DMS by OH, and aqueous oxidation of SO 2 by H 2 O 2 and O 3 . Anthropogenic emissions were from the NAPAP and EMEP 1985 inventories and biogenic emissions based on Bates et al. Calculated sulfate concentrations and column burdens exhibit high variability on spatial scale of hundreds of km and temporal scale of days. Calculated daily average sulfate concentrations closely reproduce observed concentrations at locations widespread over the model domain

  7. Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attema, Jisk J; Loriaux, Jessica M; Lenderink, Geert

    2014-01-01

    Observations of extreme (sub-)hourly precipitation at mid-latitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the non-hydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2° warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2° global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2°. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11–14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation. (paper)

  8. A mesoscale granular model for the mechanical behavior of alloys during solidification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vernede, Stephane [Computational Materials Laboratory, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Station 12, Lausanne CH-1015 (Switzerland); Alcan Centre de Recherches de Voreppe, ZI Centr' Alp, 725 rue Aristide Berges, BP 27, Voreppe FR-38341 (France)], E-mail: stephane.vernede@alcan.com; Dantzig, Jonathan A. [Computational Materials Laboratory, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Station 12, Lausanne CH-1015 (Switzerland); Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois, 1206 West Green Street Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Rappaz, Michel [Computational Materials Laboratory, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Station 12, Lausanne CH-1015 (Switzerland)

    2009-03-15

    We present a two-dimensional granular model for the mechanical behavior of an ensemble of globular grains during solidification. The grain structure is produced by a Voronoi tessellation based on an array of predefined nuclei. We consider the fluid flow caused by grain movement and solidification shrinkage in the network of channels that is formed by the faces of the grains in the tessellation. We develop the governing equations for the flow rate and pressure drop across each channel when the grains are allowed to move, and we then assemble the equations into a global expression that conserves mass and force in the system. We show that the formulation is consistent with dissipative formulations of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Several example problems are presented to illustrate the effect of tensile strains and the availability of liquid to feed the deforming microstructure. For solid fractions below g{sub s}=0.97, we find that the fluid is able to feed the deformation at low strain, even if external feeding is not permitted. For solid fractions above g{sub s}=0.97, clusters of grains with 'dry' boundaries form and fluid flow becomes highly localized.

  9. Wildfire particulate matter in Europe during summer 2003: meso-scale modeling of smoke emissions, transport and radiative effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hodzic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates effects of wildfire emissions on air quality in Europe during an intense fire season that occurred in summer 2003. A meso-scale chemistry transport model CHIMERE is used, together with ground based and satellite aerosol optical measurements, to assess the dispersion of fire emissions and to quantify the associated radiative effects. The model has been improved to take into account a MODIS-derived daily smoke emission inventory as well as the injection altitude of smoke particles. The simulated aerosol optical properties are put into a radiative transfer model to estimate (off-line the effects of smoke particles on photolysis rates and atmospheric radiative forcing. We have found that the simulated wildfires generated comparable amounts of primary aerosol pollutants (130 kTons of PM2.5, fine particles to anthropogenic sources during August 2003, and caused significant changes in aerosol optical properties not only close to the fire source regions, but also over a large part of Europe as a result of the long-range transport of the smoke. Including these emissions into the model significantly improved its performance in simulating observed aerosol concentrations and optical properties. Quantitative comparison with MODIS and POLDER data during the major fire event (3–8 August 2003 showed the ability of the model to reproduce high aerosol optical thickness (AOT over Northern Europe caused by the advection of the smoke plume from the Portugal source region. Although there was a fairly good spatial agreement with satellite data (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.9, the temporal variability of AOT data at specific AERONET locations was not well captured by the model. Statistical analyses of model-simulated AOT data at AERONET ground stations showed a significant decrease in the model biases suggesting that wildfire emissions are responsible for a 30% enhancement in mean AOT values during the heat

  10. Measurements and Mesoscale Modeling of Autumnal Vertical Ozone Profiles in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Ping Peng

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Vertical measurements of ozone were made using a tethered balloon at the Linyuan site in Kaohsiung County, southern Taiwan. Ozone was monitored at altitudes of 0, 100, 300, 500, and 1000 m from November 23 to 25 in 2005. The potential temperature profiles revealed a stable atmosphere during the study period, largely because of the dominance of the high-pressure system and nocturnal radiation cooling close to the surface. The mixing height was low (50 - 300 m, particularly in the late night and early morning. The surface ozone concentrations that were predicted using TAPM (The Air Pollution Model were high (33.7 - 119 ppbv in the daytime (10:00 - 16:00 and were low (10 - 40 ppbv at other times; the predictions of which were consistent with the observations. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reveal that costal lands typically had higher ozone concentrations than those inland, because most industrial parks are located in or close to the boundaries of Kaohsiung City. Both measurements and simulations indicate that daytime ozone concentrations decreased quickly with increasing height at altitudes below 300 m; while nighttime ozone concentrations were lower at low altitudes (50 to 300 m than at higher altitudes, partly because of dry deposition and titration of surface ozone by the near-surface nitrogen oxides (NOx and partly because of the existence of the residual layer above the stable nocturnal boundary layer. The simulations show a good correlation between the maximum daytime surface ozone concentration and average nighttime ozone concentration above the nocturnal boundary layer.

  11. Meteorological and sulphur dioxide dispersion modelling for an industrial complex near Mexico city metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mora, V.R.; Sosa, G.; Molina, M.M.; Palmerin-ruiz, M.E.; Melgarejo-flores, L.E.

    2009-01-01

    Major sulphur dioxide emissions in Mexico are due largely to fuel of oil refining and coal combustion. In Tula-Vito-Apasco industrial corridor (TVA) are located two important sources of SO/sub 2/: the 'Miguel Hidalgo' refinery and the 'Francisco Perez Rios' power plant. Due to from March 25 to April 22 of 2006 a major field campaign took place as part of a collaborative research program called MILAGRO. Data collected around the Industrial Complex were used to: a) evaluate the air quality to local and regional scale; b) study the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL); and c) validate meteorological and dispersion models. In this study we presented the behaviour of daytime BL, and the results of meteorological and dispersion modelling for selected episodes of high sulfur dioxide (SO/sub 2/). The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Hybrid and Particle Concentration Transport Model (HYPACT) were used to evaluate the impact of SO/sub 2/ emissions to regional scale. For modelling, we selected the days where higher mean daily levels of SO/sub 2 /surface concentrations were observed, these corresponded to March 31 and April 6. The results indicate that: The daytime BL in TVA, exhibited a normal behavior, a stable layer or thermal inversion close to surface was observed at 0800 LST (up to 80% of the cases), then the mixing height (MH) growths, with a growth rate of 313 m h-1 (between 0800 to 1200 LST). The most rapid MH growth happened between 1200 to 1500 LST;. The maximum MH was observed at 1500 LST (90% of the cases); the mean maximum MH was close to 2794 m AGL; Potential temperature and humidity profiles showed a normal behavior; High persistence in wind direction (> 0.6) close to surface up to 500 m AGL, was observed at 1500, and 1800 LST, at the same time, a low level jet, penetrating from the NE, with wind speed between 6 to 8 m s/sup -1/ was observed. Meteorological modelling was used to determine the circulation patterns in the region

  12. Simulating the Refractive Index Structure Constant ({C}_{n}^{2}) in the Surface Layer at Antarctica with a Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Tian, Qiguo; Liu, Dong; Rao, Ruizhong; Zhu, Wenyue

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce an approach wherein the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is coupled with the bulk aerodynamic method to estimate the surface layer refractive index structure constant (C n 2) above Taishan Station in Antarctica. First, we use the measured meteorological parameters to estimate C n 2 using the bulk aerodynamic method, and second, we use the WRF model output parameters to estimate C n 2 using the bulk aerodynamic method. Finally, the corresponding C n 2 values from the micro-thermometer are compared with the C n 2 values estimated using the WRF model coupled with the bulk aerodynamic method. We analyzed the statistical operators—the bias, root mean square error (RMSE), bias-corrected RMSE (σ), and correlation coefficient (R xy )—in a 20 day data set to assess how this approach performs. In addition, we employ contingency tables to investigate the estimation quality of this approach, which provides complementary key information with respect to the bias, RMSE, σ, and R xy . The quantitative results are encouraging and permit us to confirm the fine performance of this approach. The main conclusions of this study tell us that this approach provides a positive impact on optimizing the observing time in astronomical applications and provides complementary key information for potential astronomical sites.

  13. Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Su Kwon

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM, classification and regression tree (CART, and random forest (RF. We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

  14. A low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model for testing online and offline data assimilation schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haussaire, J.-M.; Bocquet, M.

    2015-08-01

    Bocquet and Sakov (2013) have introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of the chaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with the transport of a tracer species advected by this zonal wind field. This model, named L95-T, can serve as a playground for testing data assimilation schemes with an online model. Here, the tracer part of the model is extended to a reduced photochemistry module. This coupled chemistry meteorology model (CCMM), the L95-GRS model, mimics continental and transcontinental transport and the photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides. Its numerical implementation is described. The model is shown to reproduce the major physical and chemical processes being considered. L95-T and L95-GRS are specifically designed and useful for testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) which combines the best of ensemble and variational methods. These models provide useful insights prior to the implementation of data assimilation methods on larger models. We illustrate their use with data assimilation schemes on preliminary, yet instructive numerical experiments. In particular, online and offline data assimilation strategies can be conveniently tested and discussed with this low-order CCMM. The impact of observed chemical species concentrations on the wind field can be quantitatively estimated. The impacts of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical species non-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the data assimilation strategies are illustrated.

  15. The first mathematical models of dynamic meteorology: The Berlin prize contest of 1746

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, J.; Pelkowski, J. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The first models of dynamic meteorology were published in 1747 as a result of a prize contest of the Academy of Prussia. The topic of the contest concerned the determination of the winds 'if the Earth were surrounded everywhere by an ocean'. D'Alembert formulated a shallow water model for the first time in his prize-winning contribution and attempted to calculate tidal motions within the fluid layers. Daniel Bernoulli viewed the atmosphere as a boundary layer wherein the winds rotating with the earth at low elevations have to adjust their motion to a solar atmosphere at large heights. He is first in applying the principle of angular momentum conservation in continuum geophysics when calculating the zonal wind profile. An account of the historical background of the contest is given, as well as some later reactions to d'Alembert's solution. (orig.)

  16. Comparison of surface meteorological data representativeness for the Weldon Spring transport and dispersion modeling analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.

    1989-06-01

    The US Department of Energy is conducting the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project under the Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP). The major goals of the SFMP are to eliminate potential hazards to the public and the environment that associated with contamination at SFMP sites and to make surplus property available for other uses to the extent possible. This report presents the results of analysis of available meteorological data from stations near the Weldon Spring site. Data that are most representative of site conditions are needed to accurately model the transport and dispersion of air pollutants associated with remedial activities. Such modeling will assist the development of mitigative measures. 17 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs

  17. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  18. A Mesoscale Model-Based Climatography of Nocturnal Boundary-Layer Characteristics over the Complex Terrain of North-Western Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafin, Stefano; De Wekker, Stephan F J; Knievel, Jason C

    Nocturnal boundary-layer phenomena in regions of complex topography are extremely diverse and respond to a multiplicity of forcing factors, acting primarily at the mesoscale and microscale. The interaction between different physical processes, e.g., drainage promoted by near-surface cooling and ambient flow over topography in a statically stable environment, may give rise to special flow patterns, uncommon over flat terrain. Here we present a climatography of boundary-layer flows, based on a 2-year archive of simulations from a high-resolution operational mesoscale weather modelling system, 4DWX. The geographical context is Dugway Proving Ground, in north-western Utah, USA, target area of the field campaigns of the MATERHORN (Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations Program) project. The comparison between model fields and available observations in 2012-2014 shows that the 4DWX model system provides a realistic representation of wind speed and direction in the area, at least in an average sense. Regions displaying strong spatial gradients in the field variables, thought to be responsible for enhanced nocturnal mixing, are typically located in transition areas from mountain sidewalls to adjacent plains. A key dynamical process in this respect is the separation of dynamically accelerated downslope flows from the surface.

  19. Monitoring, modeling and mitigating impacts of wind farms on local meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin; Kelley, Neil

    2010-05-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of energy. Most of the growth is in the industrial sector comprising of large utility-scale wind farms. Recent modeling studies have suggested that such wind farms can significantly affect local and regional weather and climate. In this work, we present observational evidence of the impact of wind farms on near-surface air temperatures. Data from perhaps the only meteorological field campaign in an operational wind farm shows that downwind temperatures are lower during the daytime and higher at night compared to the upwind environment. Corresponding radiosonde profiles at the nearby Edwards Air Force Base WMO meteorological station show that the diurnal environment is unstable while the nocturnal environment is stable during the field campaign. This behavior is consistent with the hypothesis proposed by Baidya Roy et al. (JGR 2004) that states that turbulence generated in the wake of rotors enhance vertical mixing leading to a warming/cooling under positive/negative potential temperature lapse rates. We conducted a set of 306 simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test if regional climate models can capture the thermal effects of wind farms. We represented wind turbines with a subgrid parameterization that assumes rotors to be sinks of momentum and sources of turbulence. The simulated wind farms consistently generated a localized warming/cooling under positive/negative lapse rates as hypothesized. We found that these impacts are inversely correlated with background atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Thus, if the background turbulence is high due to natural processes, the effects of additional turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors are likely to be small. We propose the following strategies to minimize impacts of wind farms: • Engineering solution: design rotors that generate less turbulence in their wakes. Sensitivity simulations show that these turbines also increase the

  20. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2010-06-16

    Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data

  1. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loha Eskindir

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations, temperature (17 locations, and relative humidity (three locations. Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location

  2. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  3. Air quality modeling in the Valley of Mexico: meteorology, emissions and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Reynoso, A.; Jazcilevich, A. D.; Diaz-Nigenda, E.; Vazquez-Morales, W.; Torres-Jardon, R.; Ruiz-Suarez, G.; Tatarko, J.; Bornstein, R.

    2007-12-01

    The Valley of Mexico presents important challenges for air quality modeling: complex terrain, a great variety of anthropogenic and natural emissions sources, and high altitude and low latitude increasing the amount of radiation flux. The modeling group at the CCA-UNAM is using and merging state of the art models to study the different aspects that influence the air quality phenomenon in the Valley of Mexico. The air quality model MCCM that uses MM5 as its meteorological input has been a valuable tool to study important features of the complex and intricate atmospheric flows on the valley, such as local confluences and vertical fumigation. Air quality modeling has allowed studying the interaction between the atmospheres of the valleys surrounding the Valley of Mexico, prompting the location of measurement stations during the MILAGRO campaign. These measurements confirmed the modeling results and expanded our knowledge of the transport of pollutants between the Valleys of Cuernavaca, Puebla and Mexico. The urban landscape of Mexico City complicates meteorological modeling. Urban-MM5, a model that explicitly takes into account the influence of buildings, houses, streets, parks and anthropogenic heat, is being implemented. Preliminary results of urban-MM5 on a small area of the city have been obtained. The current emissions inventory uses traffic database that includes hourly vehicular activity in more than 11,000 street segments, includes 23 area emissions categories, more than 1,000 industrial sources and biogenic emissions. To improve mobile sources emissions a system consisting of a traffic model and a car simulator is underway. This system will allow for high time and space resolution and takes into account motor stress due to different driving regimes. An important source of emissions in the Valley of Mexico is erosion dust. The erosion model WEPS has been integrated with MM5 and preliminary results showing dust episodes over Mexico City have been obtained. A

  4. Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

  5. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity and dire...

  6. Mesoscale inversion of carbon sources and sinks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauvaux, T.

    2008-01-01

    Inverse methods at large scales are used to infer the spatial variability of carbon sources and sinks over the continents but their uncertainties remain large. Atmospheric concentrations integrate the surface flux variability but atmospheric transport models at low resolution are not able to simulate properly the local atmospheric dynamics at the measurement sites. However, the inverse estimates are more representative of the large spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystems compared to direct flux measurements. Top-down and bottom-up methods that aim at quantifying the carbon exchanges between the surface and the atmosphere correspond to different scales and are not easily comparable. During this phD, a mesoscale inverse system was developed to correct carbon fluxes at 8 km resolution. The high resolution transport model MesoNH was used to simulate accurately the variability of the atmospheric concentrations, which allowed us to reduce the uncertainty of the retrieved fluxes. All the measurements used here were observed during the intensive regional campaign CERES of May and June 2005, during which several instrumented towers measured CO 2 concentrations and fluxes in the South West of France. Airborne measurements allowed us to observe concentrations at high altitude but also CO 2 surface fluxes over large parts of the domain. First, the capacity of the inverse system to correct the CO 2 fluxes was estimated using pseudo-data experiments. The largest fraction of the concentration variability was attributed to regional surface fluxes over an area of about 300 km around the site locations depending on the meteorological conditions. Second, an ensemble of simulations allowed us to define the spatial and temporal structures of the transport errors. Finally, the inverse fluxes at 8 km resolution were compared to direct flux measurements. The inverse system has been validated in space and time and showed an improvement of the first guess fluxes from a vegetation model

  7. Integrated modeling of the dynamic meteorological and sea surface conditions during the passage of Typhoon Morakot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Soo; Yamashita, Takao; Hsu, John R.-C.; Ding, Fei

    2013-01-01

    In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused massive flooding and devastating mudslides in the southern Taiwan triggered by extremely heavy rainfall (2777 mm in 4 days) which occurred during its passage. It was one of the deadliest typhoons that have ever attacked Taiwan in recent years. In this study, numerical simulations are performed for the storm surge and ocean surface waves, together with dynamic meteorological fields such as wind, pressure and precipitation induced by Typhoon Morakot, using an atmosphere-waves-ocean integrated modelling system. The wave-induced dissipation stress from breaking waves, whitecapping and depth-induced wave breaking, is parameterized and included in the wave-current interaction process, in addition to its influence on the storm surge level in shallow water along the coast of Taiwan. The simulated wind and pressure field captures the characteristics of the observed meteorological field. The spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4 days, from 00:00 UTC 6 August to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009, shows similar patterns as the observed values. The 4-day accumulated rainfall of 2777 mm at the A-Li Shan mountain weather station for the same period depicted a high correlation with the observed value of 2780 mm/4 days. The effects of wave-induced dissipation stress in the wave-current interaction resulted in increased surge heights on the relatively shallow western coast of Taiwan, where the bottom slope of the bathymetry ranges from mild to moderate. The results also show that wave-breaking has to be considered for accurate storm surge prediction along the east coast of Taiwan over the narrow bank of surf zone with a high horizontal resolution of the model domain.

  8. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  9. Regionalization of meso-scale physically based nitrogen modeling outputs to the macro-scale by the use of regression trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Künne, A.; Fink, M.; Kipka, H.; Krause, P.; Flügel, W.-A.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, a method is presented to estimate excess nitrogen on large scales considering single field processes. The approach was implemented by using the physically based model J2000-S to simulate the nitrogen balance as well as the hydrological dynamics within meso-scale test catchments. The model input data, the parameterization, the results and a detailed system understanding were used to generate the regression tree models with GUIDE (Loh, 2002). For each landscape type in the federal state of Thuringia a regression tree was calibrated and validated using the model data and results of excess nitrogen from the test catchments. Hydrological parameters such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were also used to predict excess nitrogen by the regression tree model. Hence they had to be calculated and regionalized as well for the state of Thuringia. Here the model J2000g was used to simulate the water balance on the macro scale. With the regression trees the excess nitrogen was regionalized for each landscape type of Thuringia. The approach allows calculating the potential nitrogen input into the streams of the drainage area. The results show that the applied methodology was able to transfer the detailed model results of the meso-scale catchments to the entire state of Thuringia by low computing time without losing the detailed knowledge from the nitrogen transport modeling. This was validated with modeling results from Fink (2004) in a catchment lying in the regionalization area. The regionalized and modeled excess nitrogen correspond with 94%. The study was conducted within the framework of a project in collaboration with the Thuringian Environmental Ministry, whose overall aim was to assess the effect of agro-environmental measures regarding load reduction in the water bodies of Thuringia to fulfill the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (Bäse et al., 2007; Fink, 2006; Fink et al., 2007).

  10. THE VALUE OF NUDGING IN THE METEOROLOGY MODEL FOR RETROSPECTIVE CMAQ SIMULATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a nudging-based data assimilation approach throughout a meteorology simulation (i.e., as a "dynamic analysis") is considered valuable because it can provide a better overall representation of the meteorology than a pure forecast. Dynamic analysis is often used in...

  11. ORILAM, a three-moment lognormal aerosol scheme for mesoscale atmospheric model: Online coupling into the Meso-NH-C model and validation on the Escompte campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulet, Pierre; Crassier, Vincent; Cousin, Frederic; Suhre, Karsten; Rosset, Robert

    2005-09-01

    Classical aerosol schemes use either a sectional (bin) or lognormal approach. Both approaches have particular capabilities and interests: the sectional approach is able to describe every kind of distribution, whereas the lognormal one makes assumption of the distribution form with a fewer number of explicit variables. For this last reason we developed a three-moment lognormal aerosol scheme named ORILAM to be coupled in three-dimensional mesoscale or CTM models. This paper presents the concept and hypothesis of a range of aerosol processes such as nucleation, coagulation, condensation, sedimentation, and dry deposition. One particular interest of ORILAM is to keep explicit the aerosol composition and distribution (mass of each constituent, mean radius, and standard deviation of the distribution are explicit) using the prediction of three-moment (m0, m3, and m6). The new model was evaluated by comparing simulations to measurements from the Escompte campaign and to a previously published aerosol model. The numerical cost of the lognormal mode is lower than two bins of the sectional one.

  12. Comparison of mesoscale model and tower measurements of surface fluxes during Winter Icing and Storms Program/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement 91

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oncley, S.P.; Dudhia, J.

    1994-01-01

    This study is an evaluation of the ability of the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (MM4) to determine surface fluxes to see if measured fluxes should be assimilated into model runs. Fluxes were compared from a high-resolution (5 km grid spacing) MM4 run during one day of the Winter Icing and Storms Programs/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (WISP/ARM) experiment (over NE Colorado in winter 1991) with direct flux measurements made from a tower over a representative site by a three-dimensional sonic anemometer and fast response temperature and humidity sensors. This tower was part of the NCAR Atmosphere-Surface Turbulent Exchange Research (ASTER) facility. Also, mean values were compared to check whether any differences were due to the model parameterization or model variables

  13. Evaluation of an atmospheric model with surface and ABL meteorological data for energy applications in structured areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, A. G.; Kalogiros, J.; Krestou, A.; Leivaditou, E.; Zoumakis, N.; Bouris, D.; Garas, S.; Konstantinidis, E.; Wang, Q.

    2018-03-01

    This paper provides the performance evaluation of the meteorological component of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM), a nestable prognostic model, in predicting meteorological variables in urban areas, for both its surface layer and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence parameterizations. The model was modified by incorporating four urban land surface types, replacing the existing single urban surface. Control runs were carried out over the wider area of Kozani, an urban area in NW Greece. The model was evaluated for both surface and ABL meteorological variables by using measurements of near-surface and vertical profiles of wind and temperature. The data were collected by using monitoring surface stations in selected sites as well as an acoustic sounder (SOnic Detection And Ranging (SODAR), up to 300 m above ground) and a radiometer profiler (up to 600 m above ground). The results showed the model demonstrated good performance in predicting the near-surface meteorology in the Kozani region for both a winter and a summer month. In the ABL, the comparison showed that the model's forecasts generally performed well with respect to the thermal structure (temperature profiles and ABL height) but overestimated wind speed at the heights of comparison (mostly below 200 m) up to 3-4 ms-1.

  14. Mesoscale Connections Summer 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kippen, Karen Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bourke, Mark Andrew M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-06-21

    Our challenge derives from the fact that in metals or explosives grains, interfaces and defects control engineering performance in ways that are neither amenable to continuum codes (which fail to rigorously describe the heterogeneities derived from microstructure) nor computationally tractable to first principles atomistic calculations. This is a region called the mesoscale, which stands at the frontier of our desire to translate fundamental science insights into confidence in aging system performance over the range of extreme conditions relevant in a nuclear weapon. For dynamic problems, the phenomena of interest can require extremely good temporal resolutions. A shock wave traveling at 1000 m/s (or 1 mm/μs) passes through a grain with a diameter of 1 micron in a nanosecond (10-9 sec). Thus, to observe the mesoscale phenomena—such as dislocations or phase transformations—as the shock passes, temporal resolution better than picoseconds (10-12 sec) may be needed. As we anticipate the science challenges over the next decade, experimental insights on material performance at the micron spatial scale with picosecond temporal resolution—at the mesoscale— are a clear challenge. This is a challenge fit for Los Alamos in partnership with our sister labs and academia. Mesoscale Connections will draw attention to our progress as we tackle the mesoscale challenge. We hope you like it and encourage suggestions of content you are interested in.

  15. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent: Interplay of sea breeze, trade wind, typhoon, and topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Ge, Cui; Yang, Zhifeng; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Chew, Boon-Ning; Mahmud, Mastura; Zhang, Yongxin; Zhang, Meigen

    2013-03-01

    The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRFchem) is used to simulate the transport of smoke particles over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent during September-October 2006. In this period, dry conditions associated with the moderate El Niño event caused the largest regional biomass burning outbreak since 1997. Smoke emission in WRFchem is specified according to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) database derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. The modeled smoke transport pathway is found to be consistent with the MODIS true color images and measured mass concentration of surface PM10 (particulate matter with diameter less than 10 μm). The interplay of sea/land breezes, typhoons and storms over the subtropical western Pacific Ocean, trade winds, and topographic effects, can be clearly seen in the model simulation. The most severe smoke events in 1-5 October 2006 are found to be associated with the meteorological responses to the typhoon Xangsane (#18) over the western subtropical Pacific Ocean, which moved smoke from Sumatra eastward in the lower troposphere (below 700 hPa), forming smoke layers mixed with and above the boundary layer clouds over Borneo. In contrast, the second largest week-long smoke transport event of 15-18 October 2006 was associated with the seasonal monsoonal transition period, during which smoke plumes were wide spread over the 5°S-5°N zone as a result of (a) the near surface divergence coupled with the 700 hPa bifurcation of wind (flowing both to the west and to the east), and (b) the near-surface southeasterly and easterly winds along the equator transporting smoke from Borneo to Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia. Analysis of data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP) shows that smoke particles in October 2006 were primarily located within 3.5 km above the surface. Smoke particles contributed roughly half

  16. On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

    2014-12-01

    This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

  17. Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

    2012-07-01

    To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

  18. Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh K Biswas

    Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

  19. Combined meso-scale modeling and experimental investigation of the effect of mechanical damage on the transport properties of cementitious composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Balaji; Niknezhad, Davood; Bernard, Fabrice; Kamali-Bernard, Siham

    2016-09-01

    The transport properties of cementitious composites such as concrete are important indicators of their durability, and are known to be heavily influenced by mechanical loading. In the current work, we use meso-scale hygro-mechanical modeling with a morphological 3D two phase mortar-aggregate model, in conjunction with experimentally obtained properties, to investigate the coupling between mechanical loading and damage and the permeability of the composite. The increase in permeability of a cylindrical test specimen at 28% aggregate fraction during a uniaxial displacement-controlled compression test at 85% of the peak load was measured using a gas permeameter. The mortar's mechanical behavior is assumed to follow the well-known compression damaged plasticity (CDP) model with isotropic damage, at varying thresholds, and obtained from different envelope curves. The damaged intrinsic permeability of the mortar evolves according to a logarithmic matching law with progressive loading. We fit the matching law parameters to the experimental result for the test specimen by inverse identification using our meso-scale model. We then subject a series of virtual composite specimens to quasi-static uniaxial compressive loading with varying boundary conditions to obtain the simulated damage and strain evolutions, and use the damage data and the previously identified parameters to determine the evolution of the macroscopic permeability tensor for the specimens, using a network model. We conduct a full parameter study by varying aggregate volume fraction, granulometric distribution, loading/boundary conditions and "matching law" parameters, as well as for different strain-damage thresholds and uniaxial loading envelope curves. Based on this study, we propose Avrami equation-based upper and lower bounds for the evolution of the damaged permeability of the composite.

  20. Eighth joint conference on applications of air pollution meteorology with A & WMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    The eighth Joint Conference on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology, held January 23-28, 1994, again brings together the American Meteorological Society and Air and Waste Management Association with a broader scientific community to examine the role of the atmosphere on current air quality issues. The CAA Amendments non-attainment title has brought renewed interest in the pairing of complex dynamical meteorological models with photochemical air quality models. Requirements that future attainment to regulations be demonstrated with these models invite a new look at model evaluation. The CAAA titles addressing air toxics have brought renewed interest in near-source dispersion and deposition of toxic chemicals. Consequently, this conference is divided into sessions focusing on topics related to these issues. They include: The Dispersion Environment; Meteorology in Emissions Determination; Long-Range and Mesoscale Pollutant Transport and Fate; Meteorology and Photochemistry; Advanced Dispersion Models and Modeling Systems; Topics in Model Evaluation; Complex Flow Affecting Dispersion Near Structures; and Coastal and Complex Terrain Issues Evaluation.

  1. Effects of meteorological models on the solution of the surface energy balance and soil temperature variations in bare soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Hirotaka; Šimůnek, Jiri

    2009-07-01

    SummaryA complete evaluation of the soil thermal regime can be obtained by evaluating the movement of liquid water, water vapor, and thermal energy in the subsurface. Such an evaluation requires the simultaneous solution of the system of equations for the surface water and energy balance, and subsurface heat transport and water flow. When only daily climatic data is available, one needs not only to estimate diurnal cycles of climatic data, but to calculate the continuous values of various components in the energy balance equation, using different parameterization methods. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the choice of different estimation and parameterization methods, referred together to as meteorological models in this paper, on soil temperature predictions in bare soils. A variety of widely accepted meteorological models were tested on the dataset collected at a proposed low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in the Chihuahua Desert in West Texas. As the soil surface was kept bare during the study, no vegetation effects were evaluated. A coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transport model, implemented in the HYDRUS-1D program, was used to simulate diurnal and seasonal soil temperature changes in the engineered cover installed at the site. The modified version of HYDRUS provides a flexible means for using various types of information and different models to evaluate surface mass and energy balance. Different meteorological models were compared in terms of their prediction errors for soil temperatures at seven observation depths. The results obtained indicate that although many available meteorological models can be used to solve the energy balance equation at the soil-atmosphere interface in coupled water, vapor, and heat transport models, their impact on overall simulation results varies. For example, using daily average climatic data led to greater prediction errors, while relatively simple meteorological models may

  2. Meteorological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Multi-year summaries of one or more meteorological elements at a station or in a state. Primarily includes Form 1078, a United States Weather Bureau form designed...

  3. Meteorology Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

    2001-01-01

    Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

  4. Estimating the surface layer refractive index structure constant over snow and sea ice using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory with a mesoscale atmospheric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Huang, Honghua; Tian, Qiguo; Zhu, Wenyue; Rao, Ruizhong; Li, Xuebin

    2016-09-05

    Since systematic direct measurements of refractive index structure constant ( Cn2) for many climates and seasons are not available, an indirect approach is developed in which Cn2 is estimated from the mesoscale atmospheric model outputs. In previous work, we have presented an approach that a state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Monin-Obukhov Similarity (MOS) theory which can be used to estimate surface layer Cn2 over the ocean. Here this paper is focused on surface layer Cn2 over snow and sea ice, which is the extending of estimating surface layer Cn2 utilizing WRF model for ground-based optical application requirements. This powerful approach is validated against the corresponding 9-day Cn2 data from a field campaign of the 30th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE). We employ several statistical operators to assess how this approach performs. Besides, we present an independent analysis of this approach performance using the contingency tables. Such a method permits us to provide supplementary key information with respect to statistical operators. These methods make our analysis more robust and permit us to confirm the excellent performances of this approach. The reasonably good agreement in trend and magnitude is found between estimated values and measurements overall, and the estimated Cn2 values are even better than the ones obtained by this approach over the ocean surface layer. The encouraging performance of this approach has a concrete practical implementation of ground-based optical applications over snow and sea ice.

  5. Simulation of atmospheric temperature inversions over greater cairo using the MM5 Meso-Scale atmospheric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandil, H.A.; Elhadidi, B.M.; Kader, A. A.; Moaty, A.A.; Sherif, A.O.

    2006-01-01

    Air pollution episodes have been recorded in Cairo, during the fall season, since 1999, as a result of specific meteorological conditions combined with large quantity of pollutants created by several ground-based sources. The main reason for the smog-like episodes (black clouds) is adverse weather conditions with low and variable winds, high humidity and strong temperature inversions in the few-hundred meters above the ground. The two important types of temperature inversion affecting the air pollution are surface or ground (radiation) inversion and subsidence (elevated) inversion. The surface temperature inversion is associated with a rapid decrease in the ground surface temperature with the simultaneous existence of warm air in the lower troposphere. The inversion develops at dusk and continues until the surface warms again the following day. Pollutants emitted during the night are caught under this i nversion lid. S ubsidence inversion forms when warm air masses move over colder air masses. The inversion develops with a stagnating high-pressure system (generally associated with fair weather). Under these conditions, the pressure gradient becomes progressively weaker so that winds become light. These light winds greatly reduce the horizontal transport and dispersion of pollutants. At the same time, the subsidence inversion acts as a barrier to the vertical dispersion of the pollutants. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR meso -scale model (MM5) is used to simulate the temperature inversion phenomenon over Greater Cairo region during the fall season of 2004. Accurate computations of the heat transfer at the surface are needed to capture this phenomenon. This can only be achieved by high-resolution simulations in both horizontal and vertical directions. Hence, for accurate simulation of the temperature inversion over Greater Cairo, four nested domains of resolutions of 27 km, 9 km, 3 km and 1 km, respectively, were used in the horizontal planes. Furthermore, 42

  6. Dynamics of Clouds and Mesoscale Circulations over the Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y.; Wang, S.; Xian, P.; Reid, J. S.; Nachamkin, J.

    2010-12-01

    In recent decades Southeast Asia (SEA) has seen rapid economic growth as well as increased biomass burning, resulting in high air pollution levels and reduced air qual-ity. At the same time clouds often prevent accurate air-quality monitoring and analysis using satellite observations. The Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7SEAS) field campaign currently underway over SEA provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the com-plex interplay between aerosol and clouds. 7SEAS is a comprehensive interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences program through international partnership of NASA, NRL, ONR and seven local institutions including those from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. While the original goal of 7SEAS is to iso-late the impacts of aerosol particles on weather and the environment, it is recognized that better understanding of SEA meteorological conditions, especially those associated with cloud formation and evolution, is critical to the success of the campaign. In this study we attempt to gain more insight into the dynamic and physical processes associated with low level clouds and atmospheric circulation at the regional scale over SEA, using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS® ), a regional forecast model in operation at FNMOC since 1998. This effort comprises two main components. First, multiple-years of COAMPS operational forecasts over SEA are analyzed for basic climatology of atmospheric fea-tures. Second, mesoscale circulation and cloud properties are simulated at relatively higher resolution (15-km) for selected periods in the Gulf of Tonkin and adjacent coastal areas. Simulation results are compared to MODIS cloud observations and local sound-ings obtained during 7SEAS for model verifications. Atmospheric boundary layer proc-esses are examined in relation to spatial and temporal variations of cloud fields. The cur-rent work serves as an important step toward improving our

  7. Mesoscale hybrid calibration artifact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Hy D.; Claudet, Andre A.; Oliver, Andrew D.

    2010-09-07

    A mesoscale calibration artifact, also called a hybrid artifact, suitable for hybrid dimensional measurement and the method for make the artifact. The hybrid artifact has structural characteristics that make it suitable for dimensional measurement in both vision-based systems and touch-probe-based systems. The hybrid artifact employs the intersection of bulk-micromachined planes to fabricate edges that are sharp to the nanometer level and intersecting planes with crystal-lattice-defined angles.

  8. Atmospheric transport of radioisotopes and the assessment of population doses on a European scale. Application of the MESOS code to the meteorological dispersion of radioactive discharges from notional nuclear sites in the European Community with particular reference to the mesoscale. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ApSimon, H.M.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1983-01-01

    A first requirement of this work was the development of a model to predict the medium to long range transport and dispersal of atmospheric releases of radionuclides. One of the difficulties in such predictions is that meteorological conditions at the source become less and less relevant as the travel time increases and it is not obvious how models suitable for use close to the source may be extrapolated. Furthermore, a model capable of predicting a range of possible consequences of an accidental release in a wide variety of evolving meteorological situation necessarily has to be more detailed than a mode giving average or representative values. A suitable model, called MESOS, was therefore developed. This model uses data derived from standard meteorological observations from synoptic stations and ships to follow the trajectories and dispersion of material released. Evolving meteorological conditions in the boundary layer of the atmosphere, such as the mixing layer depth, are included in the model; and the important contribution of synoptic scale wind shear to horizontal spreading and dilution of material over longer travel distances allowed for. MESOS also takes account of the time of occurrence, the location, and the intensity and duration of rain leading to wet deposition. Time-integrated atmospheric concentrations, and dry and wet deposition may be calculated at a grid of receptor points for releases of several different nuclides. A critical review of the model is presented in which various sources of error in predictions for short term releases are discussed and in which a more detailed explanation is given of the meteorological aspects of the model. Although the MESOS model was not intended for accurate forecasting in a particular accident situation, results are presented, and compared with measurement, for the release of iodine 131 during the Windscale release of 1957. In order to apply the model to Western Europe using realistic data it was necessary to

  9. The value of using seasonality and meteorological variables to model intra-urban PM2.5 variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olvera Alvarez, Hector A.; Myers, Orrin B.; Weigel, Margaret; Armijos, Rodrigo X.

    2018-06-01

    A yearlong air monitoring campaign was conducted to assess the impact of local temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 in El Paso, Texas. Monitoring was conducted at four sites purposely selected to capture the local traffic variability. Effects of meteorological events on seasonal PM2.5 variability were identified. For instance, in winter low-wind and low-temperature conditions were associated with high PM2.5 events that contributed to elevated seasonal PM2.5 levels. Similarly, in spring, high PM2.5 events were associated with high-wind and low-relative humidity conditions. Correlation coefficients between meteorological variables and PM2.5 fluctuated drastically across seasons. Specifically, it was observed that for most sites correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables either changed from positive to negative or dissolved depending on the season. Overall, the results suggest that mixed effects analysis with season and site as fixed factors and meteorological variables as covariates could increase the explanatory value of LUR models for PM2.5.

  10. On the influence of meteorological input on photochemical modelling of a severe episode over a coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirovano, G.; Coll, I.; Bedogni, M.; Alessandrini, S.; Costa, M. P.; Gabusi, V.; Lasry, F.; Menut, L.; Vautard, R.

    The modelling reconstruction of the processes determining the transport and mixing of ozone and its precursors in complex terrain areas is a challenging task, particularly when local-scale circulations, such as sea breeze, take place. Within this frame, the ESCOMPTE European campaign took place in the vicinity of Marseille (south-east of France) in summer 2001. The main objectives of the field campaign were to document several photochemical episodes, as well as to constitute a detailed database for chemistry transport models intercomparison. CAMx model has been applied on the largest intense observation periods (IOP) (June 21-26, 2001) in order to evaluate the impacts of two state-of-the-art meteorological models, RAMS and MM5, on chemical model outputs. The meteorological models have been used as best as possible in analysis mode, thus allowing to identify the spread arising in pollutant concentrations as an indication of the intrinsic uncertainty associated to the meteorological input. Simulations have been deeply investigated and compared with a considerable subset of observations both at ground level and along vertical profiles. The analysis has shown that both models were able to reproduce the main circulation features of the IOP. The strongest discrepancies are confined to the Planetary Boundary Layer, consisting of a clear tendency to underestimate or overestimate wind speed over the whole domain. The photochemical simulations showed that variability in circulation intensity was crucial mainly for the representation of the ozone peaks and of the shape of ozone plumes at the ground that have been affected in the same way over the whole domain and all along the simulated period. As a consequence, such differences can be thought of as a possible indicator for the uncertainty related to the definition of meteorological fields in a complex terrain area.

  11. Smart Irrigation From Soil Moisture Forecast Using Satellite And Hydro -Meteorological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ceppi, Alessandro; Salerno, Raffaele; Sobrino, Josè

    2017-04-01

    Increased water demand and climate change impacts have recently enhanced the need to improve water resources management, even in those areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water. The highest consumption of water is devoted to irrigation for agricultural production, and so it is in this area that efforts have to be focused to study possible interventions. The SIM project funded by EU in the framework of the WaterWorks2014 - Water Joint Programming Initiative aims at developing an operational tool for real-time forecast of crops irrigation water requirements to support parsimonious water management and to optimize irrigation scheduling providing real-time and forecasted soil moisture behavior at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days. This study discusses advances in coupling satellite driven soil water balance model and meteorological forecast as support for precision irrigation use comparing different case studies in Italy, in the Netherlands, in China and Spain, characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation techniques and water distribution rules. Herein, the applications in two operative farms in vegetables production in the South of Italy where semi-arid climatic conditions holds, two maize fields in Northern Italy in a more water reach environment with flood irrigation will be presented. This system combines state of the art mathematical models and new technologies for environmental monitoring, merging ground observed data with Earth observations. Discussion on the methodology approach is presented, comparing for a reanalysis periods the forecast system outputs with observed soil moisture and crop water needs proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits. The real-time visualization of the implemented system is also presented through web-dashboards.

  12. Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros P; Phillips, Jeremy C; Renfrew, Ian A; Barclay, Jenni; Hogg, Andrew; Jenkins, Susanna F; Robertson, Richard; Pyle, David M

    2018-05-02

    Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

  13. Coupling of Large Eddy Simulations with Meteorological Models to simulate Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Storage Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, K.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric transport is usually performed with weather models, e.g., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that employs a parameterized turbulence model and does not resolve the fine scale dynamics generated by the flow around buildings and features comprising a large city. The NIST Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a computational fluid dynamics model that utilizes large eddy simulation methods to model flow around buildings at length scales much smaller than is practical with models like WRF. FDS has the potential to evaluate the impact of complex topography on near-field dispersion and mixing that is difficult to simulate with a mesoscale atmospheric model. A methodology has been developed to couple the FDS model with WRF mesoscale transport models. The coupling is based on nudging the FDS flow field towards that computed by WRF, and is currently limited to one way coupling performed in an off-line mode. This approach allows the FDS model to operate as a sub-grid scale model with in a WRF simulation. To test and validate the coupled FDS - WRF model, the methane leak from the Aliso Canyon underground storage facility was simulated. Large eddy simulations were performed over the complex topography of various natural gas storage facilities including Aliso Canyon, Honor Rancho and MacDonald Island at 10 m horizontal and vertical resolution. The goal of these simulations included improving and validating transport models as well as testing leak hypotheses. Forward simulation results were compared with aircraft and tower based in-situ measurements as well as methane plumes observed using the NASA Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and the next generation instrument AVIRIS-NG. Comparison of simulation results with measurement data demonstrate the capability of the coupled FDS-WRF models to accurately simulate the transport and dispersion of methane plumes over urban domains. Simulated integrated methane enhancements will be presented and

  14. Modeling the impacts of green infrastructure land use changes on air quality and meteorology case study and sensitivity analysis in Kansas City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in vegetation cover associated with urban planning efforts may affect regional meteorology and air quality. Here we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes from green infrastructure impleme...

  15. Impact of atmospheric release in stable night meteorological conditions; can emergency models predict dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Connan, O.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Voiseux, C.; Lamotte, M.; Laguionie, P.; Maro, D.; Thomas, L. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC (France)

    2014-07-01

    Atmospheric dispersion of pollutant or radionuclides in stratified meteorological condition, i.e. especially when weather conditions are very stable, mainly at night, is still poorly understood and not well apprehended by the operational atmospheric dispersion models. However, correctly predicting the dispersion of a radioactive plume, and estimating the radiological consequences for the population, following an unplanned atmospheric release of radionuclides are crucial steps in an emergency response. To better understand dispersion in these special weather conditions, IRSN performed a series of 22 air sampling campaigns between 2010 and 2013 in the vicinity of the La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (AREVA - NC, France), at distances between 200 m and 3000 m from the facility. Krypton-85 ({sup 85}Kr), a b-and g-emitting radionuclide, released during the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel was used as a non-reactive tracer of radioactive plumes. Experimental campaigns were realized in stability class stable or very stable (E or F according to Pasquill classification) 18 times, and in neutral conditions (D according to Pasquill classification) 4 times. During each campaign, Krypton-85 real time measurement were made to find the plume around the plant, and then integrated samples (30 min) were collected in bag perpendicularly to the assumed wind direction axis. After measurement by gamma spectrometry, we have, when it was possible, estimate the point of impact and the width of the plume. The objective was to estimate the horizontal dispersion (width) of the plume at ground level in function of the distance and be able to calculate atmospheric transfer coefficients. In a second step, objective was to conclude on the use of common model and on their uncertainties. The results will be presented in terms of impact on the near-field. They will be compared with data obtained in previous years in neutral atmospheric conditions, and finally the results will be confronted with

  16. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  17. Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pancrazio Bertaccini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular traffic plays an important role in atmospheric pollution and can be used as one of the key predictors in air-quality forecasting models. The models that can account for the role of traffic are especially valuable in urban areas, where high pollutant concentrations are often observed during particular times of day (rush hour and year (winter. In this paper, we develop a generalized additive models approach to analyze the behavior of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and particulate matter (PM10, collected at the environmental monitoring stations distributed throughout the city of Turin, Italy, from December 2003 to April 2005. We describe nonlinear relationships between predictors and pollutants, that are adjusted for unobserved time-varying confounders. We examine several functional forms for the traffic variable and find that a simple form can often provide adequate modeling power. Our analysis shows that there is a saturation effect of traffic on NO2, while such saturation is less evident in models linking traffic to PM10 behavior, having adjusted for meteorological covariates. Moreover, we consider the proposed models separately by seasons and highlight similarities and differences in the predictors’ partial effects. Finally, we show how forecasting can help in evaluating traffic regulation policies.

  18. The introduction of horizontal inhomogeneity of meteorological conditions in the EOSTAR propagation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijk, A.M.J. van; Kunz, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    The effective field-of-view of an electro-optical sensor in a given meteorological scenario can be evaluated using a ray-tracer. The resulting ray trace diagram also provides information pertinent to the quality (distortion, mirages) of the image being viewed by the sensor. The EOSTAR (Electro

  19. Mesoscale Effects on Carbon Export: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Cheryl S.; Long, Matthew C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Moore, Jefferson K.

    2018-04-01

    Carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean is a primary control on global carbon budgets and is mediated by plankton that are sensitive to physical forcing. Earth system models generally do not resolve ocean mesoscale circulation (O(10-100) km), scales that strongly affect transport of nutrients and plankton. The role of mesoscale circulation in modulating export is evaluated by comparing global ocean simulations conducted at 1° and 0.1° horizontal resolution. Mesoscale resolution produces a small reduction in globally integrated export production (export production can be large (±50%), with compensating effects in different ocean basins. With mesoscale resolution, improved representation of coastal jets block off-shelf transport, leading to lower export in regions where shelf-derived nutrients fuel production. Export is further reduced in these regions by resolution of mesoscale turbulence, which restricts the spatial area of production. Maximum mixed layer depths are narrower and deeper across the Subantarctic at higher resolution, driving locally stronger nutrient entrainment and enhanced summer export production. In energetic regions with seasonal blooms, such as the Subantarctic and North Pacific, internally generated mesoscale variability drives substantial interannual variation in local export production. These results suggest that biogeochemical tracer dynamics show different sensitivities to transport biases than temperature and salinity, which should be considered in the formulation and validation of physical parameterizations. Efforts to compare estimates of export production from observations and models should account for large variability in space and time expected for regions strongly affected by mesoscale circulation.

  20. North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) [12 km

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) is one of the major regional weather forecast models run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction...

  1. Assimilation of Doppler weather radar observations in a mesoscale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research (PSU–NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5) version 3.5.6. The variational data assimilation ... investigation of the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity data in 3DVAR system. The present ...... Results presented in this paper are based on.

  2. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

    2002-01-01

    ... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

  3. An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Predictions of Down-Valley and Canyon Flows and Their Consequences Using Doppler Lidar Measurements During VTMX 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fast, Jerome D.; Darby, Lisa S.

    2004-01-01

    A mesoscale model, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, and extensive Doppler lidar wind measurements during the VTMX 2000 field campaign were used to examine converging flows over the Salt Lake Valley and their effect on vertical mixing of tracers at night and during the morning transition period. The simulated wind components were transformed into radial velocities to make a direct comparison with about 1.3 million Doppler lidar data points and critically evaluate, using correlation coefficients, the spatial variations in the simulated wind fields aloft. The mesoscale model captured reasonably well the general features of the observed circulations including the daytime up-valley flow, the nighttime slope, canyon, and down-valley flows, and the convergence of the flows over the valley. When there were errors in the simulated wind fields, they were usually associated with the timing, structure, or strength of specific flows. Simulated outflows from canyons along the Wasatch Mountains propagated over the valley and converged with the down-valley flow, but the advance and retreat of these simulated flows was often out of phase with the lidar measurements. While the flow reversal during the evening transition period produced rising motions over much of the valley atmosphere in the absence of significant ambient winds, average vertical velocities became close to zero as the down-valley flow developed. Still, vertical velocities between 5 and 15 cm s-1 occurred where down-slope, canyon and down-valley flows converged and vertical velocities greater than 50 cm s-1 were produced by hydraulic jumps at the base of the canyons. The presence of strong ambient winds resulted in smaller average rising motions during the evening transition period and larger average vertical velocities after that. A fraction of the tracer released at the surface was transported up to the height of the surrounding mountains; however, higher concentrations were produced aloft for evening s

  4. Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milliez, Maya

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr

  5. Modelling the future distribution of ammonium nitrate concentrations in The Netherlands for 2020: The sensitivity to meteorological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. E.; van der Swaluw, E.; de Vries, W. J.; Sauter, F. J.; van Pul, W. A. J.; Hoogerbrugge, R.

    2015-08-01

    We present a parameterization developed to simulate Ammonium particle (NH4+) concentrations in the Operational Priority Substances (OPS) source-receptor model, without the necessity of using a detailed chemical scheme. By using the ratios of the main pre-cursor gases SO2, NO2 and NH3, and utilising calculations performed using a chemical box-model, we show that the parameterization can simulate annual mean NH4+ concentration fields to within ∼15% of measured values at locations throughout the Netherlands. Performing simulations for different decades, we find a strong correlation of simulated NH4+ distributions for both past (1993-1995) and present (2009-2012) time periods. Although the total concentration of NH4+ has decreased over the period, we find that the fraction of NH4+ transported into the Netherlands has increased from around 40% in the past to 50% for present-day. This is due to the variable efficiency of mitigation practises across economic sectors. Performing simulations for the year 2020 using associated emission estimates, we show that there are generally decreases of ∼8-25% compared to present day concentrations. By altering the meteorological fields applied in the future simulations, we show that a significant uncertainty of between ∼50 and 100% exists on this estimated NH4+ distribution as a result of variability in the temperature dependent emission terms and relative humidity. Therefore, any projections of future NH4+ distributions should be performed using well chosen meteorological fields representing recent meteorological situations.

  6. Modelling Regional Surface Energy Exchange and Boundary Layer Development in Boreal Sweden — Comparison of Mesoscale Model (RAMS Simulations with Aircraft and Tower Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meelis Mölder

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of atmospheric and surface processes with an atmospheric model (RAMS during a period of ten days in August 2001 over a boreal area in Sweden were compared to tower measurements and aircraft measurements of vertical profiles as well as surface fluxes from low altitude flights. The shape of the vertical profiles was simulated reasonably well by the model although there were significant biases in absolute values. Surface fluxes were less well simulated and the model showed considerable sensitivity to initial soil moisture conditions. The simulations were performed using two different land cover databases, the original one supplied with the RAMS model and the more detailed CORINE database. The two different land cover data bases resulted in relatively large fine scale differences in the simulated values. The conclusion of this study is that RAMS has the potential to be used as a tool to estimate boundary layer conditions and surface fluxes and meteorology over a boreal area but also that further improvement is needed.

  7. A Low-order Coupled Chemistry Meteorology Model for Testing Online and Offline Advanced Data Assimilation Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquet, M.; Haussaire, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Bocquet and Sakov have recently introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of thechaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with thetransport of a tracer species advected by this wind field. It has been used to testadvanced data assimilation methods with an online model that couples meteorology andtracer transport. In the present study, the tracer subsystem of the model is replacedwith a reduced photochemistry module meant to emulate reactive air pollution. Thiscoupled chemistry meteorology model, the L95-GRS model, mimics continental andtranscontinental transport and photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds andnitrogen dioxides.The L95-GRS is specially useful in testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as theiterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) that combines the best of ensemble andvariational methods. The model provides useful insights prior to any implementation ofthe data assimilation method on larger models. For instance, online and offline dataassimilation strategies based on the ensemble Kalman filter or the IEnKS can easily beevaluated with it. It allows to document the impact of species concentration observationson the wind estimation. The model also illustrates a long standing issue in atmosphericchemistry forecasting: the impact of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical speciesnon-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the selected data assimilation approach.

  8. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  9. Urban Flow and Pollutant Dispersion Simulation with Multi-scale coupling of Meteorological Model with Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yushi; Poh, Hee Joo

    2014-11-01

    The Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis has become increasingly important in modern urban planning in order to create highly livable city. This paper presents a multi-scale modeling methodology which couples Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with open source CFD simulation tool, OpenFOAM. This coupling enables the simulation of the wind flow and pollutant dispersion in urban built-up area with high resolution mesh. In this methodology meso-scale model WRF provides the boundary condition for the micro-scale CFD model OpenFOAM. The advantage is that the realistic weather condition is taken into account in the CFD simulation and complexity of building layout can be handled with ease by meshing utility of OpenFOAM. The result is validated against the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Tests in Oklahoma City and there is reasonably good agreement between the CFD simulation and field observation. The coupling of WRF- OpenFOAM provide urban planners with reliable environmental modeling tool in actual urban built-up area; and it can be further extended with consideration of future weather conditions for the scenario studies on climate change impact.

  10. Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

  11. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po' Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15-50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  12. Mesoscale simulation of concrete spall failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knell, S.; Sauer, M.; Millon, O.; Riedel, W.

    2012-05-01

    Although intensively studied, it is still being debated which physical mechanisms are responsible for the increase of dynamic strength and fracture energy of concrete observed at high loading rates, and to what extent structural inertia forces on different scales contribute to the observation. We present a new approach for the three dimensional mesoscale modelling of dynamic damage and cracking in concrete. Concrete is approximated as a composite of spherical elastic aggregates of mm to cm size embedded in an elastic cement stone matrix. Cracking within the matrix and at aggregate interfaces in the μm range are modelled with adaptively inserted—initially rigid—cohesive interface elements. The model is applied to analyse the dynamic tensile failure observed in Hopkinson-Bar spallation experiments with strain rates up to 100/s. The influence of the key mesoscale failure parameters of strength, fracture energy and relative weakening of the ITZ on macromechanic strength, momentum and energy conservation is numerically investigated.

  13. A New Scheme for the Simulation of Microscale Flow and Dispersion in Urban Areas by Coupling Large-Eddy Simulation with Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haifeng; Cui, Guixiang; Zhang, Zhaoshun

    2018-04-01

    A coupling scheme is proposed for the simulation of microscale flow and dispersion in which both the mesoscale field and small-scale turbulence are specified at the boundary of a microscale model. The small-scale turbulence is obtained individually in the inner and outer layers by the transformation of pre-computed databases, and then combined in a weighted sum. Validation of the results of a flow over a cluster of model buildings shows that the inner- and outer-layer transition height should be located in the roughness sublayer. Both the new scheme and the previous scheme are applied in the simulation of the flow over the central business district of Oklahoma City (a point source during intensive observation period 3 of the Joint Urban 2003 experimental campaign), with results showing that the wind speed is well predicted in the canopy layer. Compared with the previous scheme, the new scheme improves the prediction of the wind direction and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the canopy layer. The flow field influences the scalar plume in two ways, i.e. the averaged flow field determines the advective flux and the TKE field determines the turbulent flux. Thus, the mean, root-mean-square and maximum of the concentration agree better with the observations with the new scheme. These results indicate that the new scheme is an effective means of simulating the complex flow and dispersion in urban canopies.

  14. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecorari, Eliana, E-mail: eliana.pecorari@unive.it [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Mantovani, Alice [OSMOTECH S.r.l., via Francesco Sforza, 15, 20122 Milano (Italy); Franceschini, Chiara [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Bassano, Davide [SAVE S.p.A., Marco Polo Venice airport viale G. Galilei 30/1, 30173 Tessera-Venezia (Italy); Palmeri, Luca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, v. Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy); Rampazzo, Giancarlo [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy)

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  15. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-01

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  16. How biophysical interactions associated with sub- and mesoscale structures and migration behavior affect planktonic larvae of the spiny lobster in the Juan Fernández Ridge: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medel, Carolina; Parada, Carolina; Morales, Carmen E.; Pizarro, Oscar; Ernst, Billy; Conejero, Carlos

    2018-03-01

    The Juan Fernández Ridge (JFR) is a chain of topographical elevations in the eastern South Pacific (∼33-35°S, 76-81.5°W). Rich in endemic marine species, this ridge is frequently affected by the arrival of mesoscale eddies originating in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile. The impacts of these interactions on the structure and dynamics of the JFR pelagic system have, however, not been addressed yet. The present model-based study is focused on the coupled influence of mesoscale-submesoscale processes and biological behavior (i.e., diel vertical migration) on the horizontal distribution of planktonic larvae of the spiny lobster (Jasus frontalis) around the JFR waters. Two case studies were selected from a hydrodynamic Regional Ocean Modeling System to characterize mesoscale and submesoscale structures and an Individual-based model (IBM) to simulate diel vertical migration (DVM) and its impact on the horizontal distribution and the patchiness level. DVM behavior of these larvae has not been clearly characterized, therefore, three types of vertical mechanisms were assessed on the IBM: (1) no migration (LG), (2) a short migration (0-50 m depth, DVM1), and (3) a long migration (10-200 m depth, DVM2). The influence of physical properties (eddy kinetic energy, stretching deformation and divergence) on larval aggregation within meso and submesoscale features was quantified. The patchiness index assessed for mesoscale and submesoscale structures showed higher values in the mesoscale than in the submesoscale. However, submesoscale structures revealed a higher accumulation of particles by unit of area. Both vertical migration mechanisms produced larger patchiness indices compared to the no migration experiment. DVM2 was the one that showed by far the largest aggregation of almost all the aggregation zones. Larval concentrations were highest in the submesoscale structures; these zones were characterized by low eddy kinetic energy, negative stretching

  17. Method to characterize local meteorology at nuclear facilities for application to emergency response needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindsey, C.G.; Glantz, C.S.

    1986-04-01

    Effluent dispersion is evaluated using computer codes that require various meteorological parameters such as wind and stability data. These data will be based on current conditions at the site in question, and on forecasts of the expected local meteorology for the time period to be simulated. To assist NRC personnel in preparing these forecasts, a weather-typing model was implemented to analyze the characteristic behavior of local meteorology as it responds to various synoptic-scale weather features (e.g., warm fronts, cold fronts, high pressure systems). Historical observations acquired by instrumented towers at several nuclear power plants were analyzed as a function of the prevailing synoptic weather feature, synoptic-scale pressure gradient, and time of year. This study focused on sites located in shoreline and complex terrain environments because of the occurrence of mesoscale circulations, which are the sea/lake-land breeze and valley wind systems. Such circulations produce diurnally changing wind and stability conditions that cannot be readily identified by synoptic-scale weather forecasts. The advantage in analyzing the climatological behavior of local meteorology as it responds to various synoptic weather systems is that certain weather systems will control the local meteorology and produce persistent conditions

  18. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Josse

    1999-04-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

  19. Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations Part I: Surface fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Giordani

    Full Text Available A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer

  20. Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.

    2009-04-01

    Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.

  1. Turbulence Dissipation Rates in the Planetary Boundary Layer from Wind Profiling Radars and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models during WFIP2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, L.; McCaffrey, K.; Wilczak, J. M.; Olson, J. B.; Kenyon, J.

    2016-12-01

    When forecasting winds at a wind plant for energy production, the turbulence parameterizations in the forecast models are crucial for understanding wind plant performance. Recent research shows that the turbulence (eddy) dissipation rate in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes introduces significant uncertainty in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Thus, developing the capability to measure dissipation rates in the PBL will allow for identification of weaknesses in, and improvements to the parameterizations. During a preliminary field study at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory in spring 2015, a 915-MHz wind profiling radar (WPR) measured dissipation rates concurrently with sonic anemometers mounted on a 300-meter tower. WPR set-up parameters (e.g., spectral resolution), post-processing techniques (e.g., filtering for non-atmospheric signals), and spectral averaging were optimized to capture the most accurate Doppler spectra for measuring spectral widths for use in the computation of the eddy dissipation rates. These encouraging results lead to the implementation of the observing strategy on a 915-MHz WPR in Wasco, OR, operating as part of the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2). These observations are compared to dissipation rates calculated from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, a WRF-based mesoscale numerical weather prediction model run for WFIP2 at 3000 m horizontal grid spacing and with a nest, which has 750-meter horizontal grid spacing, in the complex terrain region of the Columbia River Gorge. The observed profiles of dissipation rates are used to evaluate the PBL parameterization schemes used in the HRRR model, which are based on the modeled turbulent kinetic energy and a tunable length scale.

  2. Mathematical models for atmospheric pollutants. Appendix A. Elements of meteorology. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drake, R.L.; Laulainen, N.S.

    1979-08-01

    The meteorological elements that are important in the transport and fate of airborne pollutants are summarized. The summary consists of descriptions of the thermal, water, kinematic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, the time and space scale classifications of atmospheric motions, and modifications of pollutant plumes as they pass over nonhomogeneous surface conditions and complex terrain. The discussions consider the atmospheric thermal layers and their stability, formation of clouds and the production of rain and snow, the movement of air masses and weather fronts, the horizontal winds in the planetary boundary layer, and wind profiles over transition zones and complex terrain

  3. Crucial role of dynamic linker histone binding and divalent ions for DNA accessibility and gene regulation revealed by mesoscale modeling of oligonucleosomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collepardo-Guevara, Rosana; Schlick, Tamar

    2012-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of a mesoscale model of oligonucleosomes are analyzed to examine the role of dynamic-linker histone (LH) binding/unbinding in high monovalent salt with divalent ions, and to further interpret noted chromatin fiber softening by dynamic LH in monovalent salt conditions. We find that divalent ions produce a fiber stiffening effect that competes with, but does not overshadow, the dramatic softening triggered by dynamic-LH behavior. Indeed, we find that in typical in vivo conditions, dynamic-LH binding/unbinding reduces fiber stiffening dramatically (by a factor of almost 5, as measured by the elasticity modulus) compared with rigidly fixed LH, and also the force needed to initiate chromatin unfolding, making it consistent with those of molecular motors. Our data also show that, during unfolding, divalent ions together with LHs induce linker-DNA bending and DNA–DNA repulsion screening, which guarantee formation of heteromorphic superbeads-on-a-string structures that combine regions of loose and compact fiber independently of the characteristics of the LH–core bond. These structures might be important for gene regulation as they expose regions of the DNA selectively. Dynamic control of LH binding/unbinding, either globally or locally, in the presence of divalent ions, might constitute a mechanism for regulation of gene expression. PMID:22790986

  4. Modeling the contributions of emission, meteorology, and chemistry to high PM2.5 levels over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; Jia, B.; Jiang, J.; Zhou, W.; Wang, B.

    2014-12-01

    PM2.5 is known to harm health and public welfare. In recent years, regional haze with PM2.5 levels exceeding ten folds of WHO's air quality guideline has become the largest air quality concern in China. To better protect the health of millions of people, the key question is whether we understand the formation mechanism of high PM2.5 episodes well enough to guide the formation of effective control strategies. Here we present a modeling analysis in conjunction of observational constraints to estimate the contribution of emissions, meteorology, and secondary chemical formation to changes in PM2.5 levels over China. Certain meteorological conditions are found particularly conducive to trigger fast increases of secondary PM under current emissions mixtures in China. While the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model reproduces the distribution of PM2.5 and simulates up to ~400 μg/m3 of daily maximum PM2.5, it fails to capture the large sulfate enhancement during haze. We propose heterogeneous oxidation of SO2 on deliquesced aerosols as an additional source of sulfate under high relative humidity conditions. Parameterizing this process in the model improves the simulated spatial distribution and results in significant increases of sulfate enhancement ratio and sulfate fraction in PM2.5 during haze episodes. Implications of our modeling analysis for PM2.5 pollution control policies will also be discussed.

  5. CROP YIELD AND CO2 FIXATION MONITORING IN ASIA USING A PHOTOSYNTHETICSTERILITY MODEL WITH SATELLITES AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daijiro Kaneko [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Matsue National College of Technology, Matsue (Japan); Toshiro Kumakura [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka (Japan); Peng Yang [Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing (China)

    2008-09-30

    This study is intended to develop a model for estimating carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) fixation in the carbon cycle and for monitoring grain yields using a photosynthetic-sterility model, which integrates solar radiation and air temperature effects on photosynthesis, along with grain-filling from heading to ripening. Grain production monitoring would support orderly crisis management to maintain food security in Asia, which is facing climate fluctuation through this century of global warming. The author improved a photosynthesis-and-sterility model to compute both the crop yield and crop situation index CSI, which gives a percentage of rice yields compared to normal annual production. The model calculates photosynthesis rates including biomass effects, lowtemperature sterility, and high-temperature injury by incorporating solar radiation, effective air temperature, the normalized difference vegetation index NDVI, and the effect of temperature on photosynthesis by grain plant leaves. A decision-tree method classifies the distribution of crop fields in Asia using MODIS fundamental landcover and SPOT VEGETATION data, which include the Normalized Vegetation index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). This study provides daily distributions of the photosynthesis rate, which is the CO2 fixation in Asian areas combined with the land-cover distribution, the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), and meteorological re-analysis data by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The method is based on routine observation data, enabling automated monitoring of crop yields.

  6. Reduction of thermal models of buildings: improvement of techniques using meteorological influence models; Reduction de modeles thermiques de batiments: amelioration des techniques par modelisation des sollicitations meteorologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dautin, S.

    1997-04-01

    This work concerns the modeling of thermal phenomena inside buildings for the evaluation of energy exploitation costs of thermal installations and for the modeling of thermal and aeraulic transient phenomena. This thesis comprises 7 chapters dealing with: (1) the thermal phenomena inside buildings and the CLIM2000 calculation code, (2) the ETNA and GENEC experimental cells and their modeling, (3) the techniques of model reduction tested (Marshall`s truncature, Michailesco aggregation method and Moore truncature) with their algorithms and their encoding in the MATRED software, (4) the application of model reduction methods to the GENEC and ETNA cells and to a medium size dual-zone building, (5) the modeling of meteorological influences classically applied to buildings (external temperature and solar flux), (6) the analytical expression of these modeled meteorological influences. The last chapter presents the results of these improved methods on the GENEC and ETNA cells and on a lower inertia building. These new methods are compared to classical methods. (J.S.) 69 refs.

  7. North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cerovecki, Ivana [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography; McClean, Julie [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography; Koracin, Darko [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States). Division of Atmospheric Sciences

    2014-11-14

    The overall objective of this study was to improve the representation of regional ocean circulation in the North Pacific by using high resolution atmospheric forcing that accurately represents mesoscale processes in ocean-atmosphere regional (North Pacific) model configuration. The goal was to assess the importance of accurate representation of mesoscale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean on large scale circulation. This is an important question, as mesoscale processes in the atmosphere which are resolved by the high resolution mesoscale atmospheric models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are absent in commonly used atmospheric forcing such as CORE forcing, employed in e.g. the Community Climate System Model (CCSM).

  8. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

    2017-09-01

    Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

  9. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.

  10. PREDICTIONS OF DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION OF FALLOUT FROM NUCLEAR TESTING USING THE NOAA-HYSPLIT METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, Brian E.; Beck, Harold L.; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly, where little historical fallout monitoring data is available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particles sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

  11. Capitalizing on Citizen Science Data for Validating Models and Generating Hypotheses Describing Meteorological Drivers of Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Paull, S.; Anyamba, A.; Soebiyanto, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation are important drivers of mosquito population dynamics, and a growing set of models have been proposed to characterize these relationships. Validation of these models, and development of broader theories across mosquito species and regions could nonetheless be improved by comparing observations from a global dataset of mosquito larvae with satellite-based measurements of meteorological variables. Citizen science data can be particularly useful for two such aspects of research into the meteorological drivers of mosquito populations: i) Broad-scale validation of mosquito distribution models and ii) Generation of quantitative hypotheses regarding changes to mosquito abundance and phenology across scales. The recently released GLOBE Observer Mosquito Habitat Mapper (GO-MHM) app engages citizen scientists in identifying vector taxa, mapping breeding sites and decommissioning non-natural habitats, and provides a potentially useful new tool for validating mosquito ubiquity projections based on the analysis of remotely sensed environmental data. Our early work with GO-MHM data focuses on two objectives: validating citizen science reports of Aedes aegypti distribution through comparison with accepted scientific data sources, and exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation events and subsequent observations of mosquito larvae. Ultimately the goal is to develop testable hypotheses regarding the shape and character of this relationship between mosquito species and regions.

  12. Mesoscale wind fluctuations over Danish waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vincent, Claire Louise

    in generated power are a particular problem for oshore wind farms because the typically high concentration of turbines within a limited geographical area means that uctuations can be correlated across large numbers of turbines. Furthermore, organised mesoscale structures that often form over water......Mesoscale wind uctuations aect the large scale integration of wind power because they undermine the day-ahead predictability of wind speed and power production, and because they can result in large uctuations in power generation that must be balanced using reserve power. Large uctuations...... that realistic hour-scale wind uctuations and open cellular convection patterns develop in WRF simulations with 2km horizontal grid spacing. The atmospheric conditions during one of the case studies are then used to initialise a simplied version of the model that has no large scale weather forcing, topography...

  13. Sensitivity of an Integrated Mesoscale Atmosphere and Agriculture Land Modeling System (WRF/CMAQ-EPIC) to MODIS Vegetation and Lightning Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, L.; Cooter, E. J.; Gilliam, R. C.; Foroutan, H.; Kang, D.; Appel, W.; Wong, D. C.; Pleim, J. E.; Benson, V.; Pouliot, G.

    2017-12-01

    The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteorology, climate, and chemical transport. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) is a cropping model which has long been used in a range of applications related to soil erosion, crop productivity, climate change, and water quality around the world. We have integrated WRF/CMAQ with EPIC using the Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) to estimate daily soil N information with fertilization for CMAQ bi-directional ammonia flux modeling. Driven by the weather and N deposition from WRF/CMAQ, FEST-C EPIC simulations are conducted on 22 different agricultural production systems ranging from managed grass lands (e.g. hay and alfalfa) to crop lands (e.g. corn grain and soybean) with rainfed and irrigated information across any defined conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and grid resolution. In recent years, this integrated system has been enhanced and applied in many different air quality and ecosystem assessment projects related to land-water-atmosphere interactions. These enhancements have advanced this system to become a valuable tool for integrated assessments of air, land and water quality in light of social drivers and human and ecological outcomes. This presentation will focus on evaluating the sensitivity of precipitation and N deposition in the integrated system to MODIS vegetation input and lightning assimilation and their impacts on agricultural production and fertilization. We will describe the integrated modeling system and evaluate simulated precipitation and N deposition along with other weather information (e.g. temperature, humidity) for 2011 over the conterminous U.S. at 12 km grids from a coupled WRF/CMAQ with MODIS and lightning assimilation

  14. Biogeography of seabirds within a high-latitude ecosystem: Use of a data-assimilative ocean model to assess impacts of mesoscale oceanography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santora, Jarrod A.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Ladd, Carol; Renner, Martin; Hunt, George L., Jr.

    2018-02-01

    We assessed the biogeography of seabirds within the Bering Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (LME), a highly productive and extensive continental shelf system that supports important fishing grounds. Our objective was to investigate how physical ocean conditions impact distribution of seabirds along latitudinal gradients. We tested the hypothesis that seabird biogeographic patterns reflect differences in ocean conditions relating to the boundary between northern and southern shelf ecosystems. We used a grid-based approach to develop spatial means (1975-2014) of summertime seabird species' abundance, species' richness, and a multivariate seabird assemblage index to examine species composition. Seabird indices were linked to ocean conditions derived from a data-assimilative oceanographic model to quantify relationships between physics (e.g., temperature, salinity, and current velocity), bathymetry and seabirds along latitudinal gradients. Species assemblages reflected two main sources of variation, a mode for elevated richness and abundance, and a mode related to partitioning of inner/middle shelf species from outer shelf-slope species. Overall, species richness and abundance increased markedly at higher latitudes. We found that latitudinal changes in species assemblages, richness and abundance indicates a major shift around 59-60°N within inner and middle shelf regions, but not in the outer shelf. Within the middle shelf, latitudinal shifts in seabird assemblages strongly related to hydrographic structure, as opposed to the inner and outer shelf waters. As expected, elevated species richness and abundance was associated with major breeding colonies and within important coastal foraging areas. Our study also indicates that seabird observations supported the conclusion that the oceanographic model captured mesoscale variability of ocean conditions important for understanding seabird distributions and represents an important step for evaluating modeling and empirical studies

  15. Exploring the Utility of Model-based Meteorology Data for Heat-Related Health Research and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidyanathan, A.; Yip, F.

    2017-12-01

    Context: Studies that have explored the impacts of environmental exposure on human health have mostly relied on data from weather stations, which can be limited in geographic scope. For this assessment, we: (1) evaluated the performance of the meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS) model with measurements from weather stations for public health and specifically for CDC's Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, and (2) conducted a health assessment to explore the relationship between heat exposure and mortality, and examined region-specific differences in heat-mortality (H-M) relationships when using model-based estimates in place of measurements from weather stations.Methods: Meteorological data from the NLDAS Phase 2 model was evaluated against measurements from weather stations. A time-series analysis was conducted, using both station- and model-based data, to generate H-M relationships for counties in the U.S. The county-specific risk information was pooled to characterize regional relationships for both station- and model-based data, which were then compared to identify degrees of overlap and discrepancies between results generated using the two data sources. Results: NLDAS-based heat metrics were in agreement with those generated using weather station data. In general, the H-M relationship tended to be non-linear and varied by region, particularly the heat index value at which the health risks become positively significant. However, there was a high degree of overlap between region-specific H-M relationships generated from weather stations and the NLDAS model.Interpretation: Heat metrics from NLDAS model are available for all counties in the coterminous U.S. from 1979-2015. These data can facilitate health research and surveillance activities exploring health impacts associated with long-term heat exposures at finer geographic scales.Conclusion: High spatiotemporal coverage of environmental health data

  16. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  17. Meso- and Micro-scale Modelling in China: Wind atlas analysis for 12 meteorological stations in NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Yang, Z.; Hansen, Jens Carsten

    As part of the “Meso-Scale and Micro-Scale Modelling in China” project, also known as the CMA component of the Sino-Danish Wind Energy Development Programme (WED), microscale modelling and analyses have been carried out for 12 meteorological stations in NE China. Wind speed and direction data from...... the twelve 70-m masts have been analysed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP 10). The wind-climatological inputs are the observed wind climates derived from the WAsP Climate Analyst. Topographical inputs are elevation maps constructed from SRTM 3 data and roughness length maps...... constructed from Google Earth satellite imagery. The maps have been compared to Chinese topographical maps and adjusted accordingly. Summaries are given of the data measured at the 12 masts for the reference period 2009. The main result of the microscale modelling is an observational wind atlas for NE China...

  18. High-frequency and meso-scale winter sea-ice variability in the Southern Ocean in a high-resolution global ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stössel, Achim; von Storch, Jin-Song; Notz, Dirk; Haak, Helmuth; Gerdes, Rüdiger

    2018-03-01

    This study is on high-frequency temporal variability (HFV) and meso-scale spatial variability (MSV) of winter sea-ice drift in the Southern Ocean simulated with a global high-resolution (0.1°) sea ice-ocean model. Hourly model output is used to distinguish MSV characteristics via patterns of mean kinetic energy (MKE) and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) of ice drift, surface currents, and wind stress, and HFV characteristics via time series of raw variables and correlations. We find that (1) along the ice edge, the MSV of ice drift coincides with that of surface currents, in particular such due to ocean eddies; (2) along the coast, the MKE of ice drift is substantially larger than its TKE and coincides with the MKE of wind stress; (3) in the interior of the ice pack, the TKE of ice drift is larger than its MKE, mostly following the TKE pattern of wind stress; (4) the HFV of ice drift is dominated by weather events, and, in the absence of tidal currents, locally and to a much smaller degree by inertial oscillations; (5) along the ice edge, the curl of the ice drift is highly correlated with that of surface currents, mostly reflecting the impact of ocean eddies. Where ocean eddies occur and the ice is relatively thin, ice velocity is characterized by enhanced relative vorticity, largely matching that of surface currents. Along the ice edge, ocean eddies produce distinct ice filaments, the realism of which is largely confirmed by high-resolution satellite passive-microwave data.

  19. A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Petters

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP, bulk optical depth (τ and cloud radiative forcing (CRF. We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd. In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase

  20. Effect of Mesoscale and Multiscale Modeling on the Performance of Kevlar Woven Fabric Subjected to Ballistic Impact: A Numerical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xin; Huang, Zhengxiang; Zu, Xudong; Gu, Xiaohui; Xiao, Qiangqiang

    2013-12-01

    In this study, an optimal finite element model of Kevlar woven fabric that is more computational efficient compared with existing models was developed to simulate ballistic impact onto fabric. Kevlar woven fabric was modeled to yarn level architecture by using the hybrid elements analysis (HEA), which uses solid elements in modeling the yarns at the impact region and uses shell elements in modeling the yarns away from the impact region. Three HEA configurations were constructed, in which the solid element region was set as about one, two, and three times that of the projectile's diameter with impact velocities of 30 m/s (non-perforation case) and 200 m/s (perforation case) to determine the optimal ratio between the solid element region and the shell element region. To further reduce computational time and to maintain the necessary accuracy, three multiscale models were presented also. These multiscale models combine the local region with the yarn level architecture by using the HEA approach and the global region with homogenous level architecture. The effect of the varying ratios of the local and global area on the ballistic performance of fabric was discussed. The deformation and damage mechanisms of fabric were analyzed and compared among numerical models. Simulation results indicate that the multiscale model based on HEA accurately reproduces the baseline results and obviously decreases computational time.

  1. Meteorological conditions associated to high sublimation amounts in semiarid high-elevation Andes decrease the performance of empirical melt models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alvaro; Pellicciotti, Francesca; MacDonell, Shelley; McPhee, James; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Empirical melt (EM) models are often preferred to surface energy balance (SEB) models to calculate melt amounts of snow and ice in hydrological modelling of high-elevation catchments. The most common reasons to support this decision are that, in comparison to SEB models, EM models require lower levels of meteorological data, complexity and computational costs. However, EM models assume that melt can be characterized by means of a few index variables only, and their results strongly depend on the transferability in space and time of the calibrated empirical parameters. In addition, they are intrinsically limited in accounting for specific process components, the complexity of which cannot be easily reconciled with the empirical nature of the model. As an example of an EM model, in this study we use the Enhanced Temperature Index (ETI) model, which calculates melt amounts using air temperature and the shortwave radiation balance as index variables. We evaluate the performance of the ETI model on dry high-elevation sites where sublimation amounts - that are not explicitly accounted for the EM model - represent a relevant percentage of total ablation (1.1 to 8.7%). We analyse a data set of four Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), which were collected during the ablation season 2013-14, at elevations between 3466 and 4775 m asl, on the glaciers El Tapado, San Francisco, Bello and El Yeso, which are located in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. We complement our analysis using data from past studies in Juncal Norte Glacier (Chile) and Haut Glacier d'Arolla (Switzerland), during the ablation seasons 2008-09 and 2006, respectively. We use the results of a SEB model, applied to each study site, along the entire season, to calibrate the ETI model. The ETI model was not designed to calculate sublimation amounts, however, results show that their ability is low also to simulate melt amounts at sites where sublimation represents larger percentages of total ablation. In fact, we

  2. Development of satellite green vegetation fraction time series for use in mesoscale modeling: application to the European heat wave 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Joakim Refslund; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    A method is presented for development of satellite green vegetation fraction (GVF) time series for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF data is in the WRF model used to describe the temporal evolution of many land surface parameters, in addition to the evolution of veg...

  3. Numerical simulation of mesoscale surface pressure features with trailing stratiform squall lines using WRF -ARW model over Gangetic West Bengal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawn, Soma; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

    2018-01-01

    In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the simulation of mesoscale surface pressure patterns like pre-squall mesolow, mesohigh and wake low associated with leading convective line-trailing stratiform (TS) squall lines over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB). For this purpose, a two way interactive triple nested domain with high resolution WRF model having2 km grid length in the innermost domain is used. The model simulated results are compared with the available in-situ observations obtained as a part of Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme, reflectivity products of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Kolkata and TRMM rainfall. Three TS squall lines (15 May 2009, 5 May 2010 and 7 May 2010) are chosen during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season for this study. The model simulated results of diurnal variation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction at the station Kharagpur in GWB region reveal a sudden fall in temperature, increase in the amount of relative humidity and sudden rise in wind speed during the arrival of the storms. Such results are well comparable with the observations though there are some leading or lagging of time in respect of actual occurrences of such events. The study indicates that the model is able to predict the occurrences of three typical surface pressure features namely: pre-squall mesolow, meso high and wake low. The predicted surface parameters like accumulated rainfall, maximum reflectivity and vertical profiles (temperature, relative humidity and winds) are well accorded with the observations. The convective and stratiform precipitation region of the TS squall lines are well represented by the model. A strong downdraft is observed to be a contributory factor for formation of mesohigh in the convective region of the squall line. Wake low is observed to reside in the stratiform rain region and the descending dry air at this place has triggered the wake low through adiabatic

  4. Green River air quality model development: meteorological and tracer data, July/August 1982 field study in Brush Valley, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, C.D.; Lee, R.N.; Orgill, M.M.; Zak, B.D.

    1984-06-01

    Meteorological and atmospheric tracer studies were conducted during a 3-week period in July and August of 1982 in the Brush Creek Valley of northwestern Colorado. The objective of the field experiments was to obtain data to evaluate a model, called VALMET, developed at PNL to predict dispersion of air pollutants released from an elevated stack located within a deep mountain valley in the post-sunrise temperature inversion breakup period. Three tracer experiments were conducted in the valley during the 2-week period. In these experiments, sulfur hexafluoride (SF/sub 6/) was released from a height of approximately 100 m, beginning before sunrise and continuing until the nocturnal down-valley winds reversed several hours after sunrise. Dispersion of the sulfur hexafluoride after release was evaluated by measuring SF/sub 6/ concentrations in ambient air samples taken from sampling devices operated within the valley up to about 8 km down valley from the source. An instrumented research aircraft was also used to measure concentrations in and above the valley. Tracer samples were collected using a network of radio-controlled bag sampling stations, two manually operated gas chromatographs, a continuous SF/sub 6/ monitor, and a vertical SF/sub 6/ profiler. In addition, basic meteorological data were collected during the tracer experiments. Frequent profiles of vertical wind and temperature structure were obtained with tethered balloons operated at the release site and at a site 7.7 km down the valley from the release site. 10 references, 63 figures, 50 tables.

  5. Estimativa de radiação solar via modelagem atmosférica de mesoescala aplicada à região nordeste do Brasil Estimation of solar radiation by mesoscale atmospheric modeling applied to the northeast Brazil region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otacilio Leandro De Menezes Neto

    2009-09-01

    incoming solar radiation at ground level on Northeast Brazil, using a mesoscale atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System - RAMS, calibrated and validated using the automatic surface stations network data from the Ceará State Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos- FUNCEME. The results showed that the model presents systematic errors, overestimating surface radiation, but, after a proper statistical corrections, using a relationship between the model-predicted cloud fraction and the observed radiation at ground level and the estimated at the top of the atmosphere, a 0.92 correlation value, with a confidence interval of 13,5 W/m², is obtained for monthly data. Using this methodology, an estimated 215 W/m² annual average incoming solar radiation over Ceará is found (maximum in October: 260 W/m².

  6. Energy- and humidity-budget of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GESIMA by nesting into the regional climate model REMO; Energie- und Feuchtehaushalt im nichthydrostatischen Mesoskalamodell GESIMA bei Nestung in das Regionalklimamodell REMO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horneffer, K. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserphysik]|[Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Fachbereich 15 - Geowissenschaften

    1997-12-31

    The `Geesthacht Simulationsmodel of the Atmosphere` (GESIMA) was nested into the `Regional Climate Model` (REMO). Exemplary studies prove that the presented nesting scheme is suitable to resolve subscale phenomena in the regional climate model. Some results of simulations above the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea were presented. The mesoscale model GESIMA could now be used to analyze real synoptic weather situations. (orig.) [Deutsch] Das Geesthachter Simulationsmodell der Atmosphaere (GESIMA) wird in das Regionalklimamodell (REMO) genestet. Beispielhafte Untersuchungen zeigen, dass mit der genesteten Modellversion subskalige Effekte, die durch das grobe Raster des Regionalklimamodells fallen, aufgeloest werden. Dies wird anhand von Simulationen ueberprueft. Hauptuntersuchungsgegenstand ist die Insel Gotland in der Ostsee. Duch die Nestung kann das Mesoskalamodell fuer tatsaechliche synoptische Situationen eingesetzt werden. (orig.)

  7. Meteorological instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-06-01

    RFS or ''Regles Fondamentales de Surete'' (Basic Safety Rules) applicable to certain types of nuclear facilities lay down requirements with which compliance, for the type of facilities and within the scope of application covered by the RFS, is considered to be equivalent to compliance with technical French regulatory practice. The object of the RFS is to take advantage of standardization in the field of safety , while allowing for technical progress in that field. They are designed to enable the operating utility and contractors to know the rules pertaining to various subjects which are considered to be acceptable by the ''Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires'' or the SCSIN (Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Facilities). These RFS should make safety analysis easier and lead to better understanding between experts and individuals concerned with the problems of nuclear safety. The SCSIN reserves the right to modify, when considered necessary any RFS and specify, if need be, the terms under which a modification is deemed retroactive. The purpose of this RFS is to specify the meteorological instrumentation required at the site of each nuclear power plant equipped with at least one pressurized water reactor

  8. Use of midlatitude soil moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Vinnikov, Konstantin YA.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Speranskaya, Nina A.; Xue, Yongkang

    1995-01-01

    Soil moisture observations in sites with natural vegetation were made for several decades in the former Soviet Union at hundreds of stations. In this paper, the authors use data from six of these stations from different climatic regimes, along with ancillary meteorological and actinometric data, to demonstrate a method to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models. Some early and current general circulation models (GCMs) use bucket models for soil hydrology calculations. More recently, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) was developed to incorporate the effects of vegetation on fluxes of moisture, momentum, and energy at the earth's surface into soil hydrology models. Until now, the bucket and SiB have been verified by comparison with actual soil moisture data only on a limited basis. In this study, a Simplified SiB (SSiB) soil hydrology model and a 15-cm bucket model are forced by observed meteorological and actinometric data every 3 h for 6-yr simulations at the six stations. The model calculations of soil moisture are compared to observations of soil moisture, literally 'ground truth,' snow cover, surface albedo, and net radiation, and with each other. For three of the stations, the SSiB and 15-cm bucket models produce good simulations of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of soil moisture. For the other three stations, there are large errors in the simulations by both models. Inconsistencies in specification of field capacity may be partly responsible. There is no evidence that the SSiB simulations are superior in simulating soil moisture variations. In fact, the models are quite similar since SSiB implicitly has a bucket embedded in it. One of the main differences between the models is in the treatment of runoff due to melting snow in the spring -- SSiB incorrectly puts all the snowmelt into runoff. While producing similar soil moisture simulations, the models produce very different surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, which

  9. Laser guidance of mesoscale particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underdown, Frank Hartman, Jr.

    Mesoscale particles are guided and trapped in hollow optical fibers using radiation pressure forces. Laser light from a 0.4W, 780nm diode laser is guided in a low- loss fiber mode and used to generate the guidance forces. Laser scattering and absorption forces propels particles along the fiber and polarization gradient forces attract them to the fiber's axial center. Using two counter propagating laser beams, inside the fiber, particles can be trapped in three dimensions. Measuring the spring constant of the trap gives the gradient force. This dissertation describes Rayleigh and Mie scattering models for calculating guidance forces. Calculated forces as a function of particle size and composition (i.e. dielectric, semiconductor, and metals) will be presented. For example, under typical experimental conditions 100nm Au particles are guided by a 2 × 10-14 N propulsive force in a water filled fiber. In comparison, the measured force, obtained from the particle's velocity and Stokes' law, is 7.98 × 10-14 N.

  10. Predictions of dispersion and deposition of fallout from nuclear testing using the NOAA-HYSPLIT meteorological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, Brian E; Beck, Harold L; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L

    2010-08-01

    The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly where little historical fallout monitoring data are available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particle sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that, when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

  11. NORSEWIND – Mesoscale model derived Wind Atlases for the Irish Sea, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berge, Erik; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Bredesen, Rolv Erlend

    2013-01-01

    estimate a random uncertainty of ±4.0 % and a bias of -6.4 % which is higher than for the average annual wind speed. It is emphasized that the amount of validation data is small and considerable spatial variability of the uncertainty may be expected. For example, near coastal zones model errors could...

  12. Airline meteorological requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, C. L.; Pappas, J.

    1985-01-01

    A brief review of airline meteorological/flight planning is presented. The effects of variations in meteorological parameters upon flight and operational costs are reviewed. Flight path planning through the use of meteorological information is briefly discussed.

  13. Acoustic Characterization of Mesoscale Objects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chinn, D; Huber, R; Chambers, D; Cole, G; Balogun, O; Spicer, J; Murray, T

    2007-03-13

    This report describes the science and engineering performed to provide state-of-the-art acoustic capabilities for nondestructively characterizing mesoscale (millimeter-sized) objects--allowing micrometer resolution over the objects entire volume. Materials and structures used in mesoscale objects necessitate the use of (1) GHz acoustic frequencies and (2) non-contacting laser generation and detection of acoustic waves. This effort demonstrated that acoustic methods at gigahertz frequencies have the necessary penetration depth and spatial resolution to effectively detect density discontinuities, gaps, and delaminations. A prototype laser-based ultrasonic system was designed and built. The system uses a micro-chip laser for excitation of broadband ultrasonic waves with frequency components reaching 1.0 GHz, and a path-stabilized Michelson interferometer for detection. The proof-of-concept for mesoscale characterization is demonstrated by imaging a micro-fabricated etched pattern in a 70 {micro}m thick silicon wafer.

  14. Sensitivity Studies on the Influence of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Development Using WRF Mesoscale Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, G.; Eidhammer, T.; Rasmussen, R.

    2011-12-01

    Using the WRF model in simulations of shallow and deep precipitating cloud systems, we investigated the sensitivity to aerosols initiating as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. A global climatological dataset of sulfates, sea salts, and dust was used as input for a control experiment. Sensitivity experiments with significantly more polluted conditions were conducted to analyze the resulting impacts to cloud and precipitation formation. Simulations were performed using the WRF model with explicit treatment of aerosols added to the Thompson et al (2008) bulk microphysics scheme. The modified scheme achieves droplet formation using pre-tabulated CCN activation tables provided by a parcel model. The ice nucleation is parameterized as a function of dust aerosols as well as homogeneous freezing of deliquesced aerosols. The basic processes of aerosol activation and removal by wet scavenging are considered, but aerosol characteristic size or hygroscopicity does not change due to evaporating droplets. In other words, aerosol processing was ignored. Unique aspects of this study include the usage of one to four kilometer grid spacings and the direct parameterization of ice nucleation from aerosols rather than typical temperature and/or supersaturation relationships alone. Initial results from simulations of a deep winter cloud system and its interaction with significant orography show contrasting sensitivities in regions of warm rain versus mixed liquid and ice conditions. The classical view of higher precipitation amounts in relatively clean maritime clouds with fewer but larger droplets is confirmed for regions dominated by the warm-rain process. However, due to complex interactions with the ice phase and snow riming, the simulations revealed the reverse situation in high terrain areas dominated by snow reaching the surface. Results of other cloud systems will be summarized at the conference.

  15. Development of the Next Generation Air Quality Modeling System (20th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A next generation air quality modeling system is being developed at the U.S. EPA to enable modeling of air quality from global to regional to (eventually) local scales. We envision that the system will have three configurations: 1. Global meteorology with seamless mesh refinemen...

  16. Space based inverse modeling of seasonal variations of anthropogenic and natural emissions of nitrogen oxides over China and effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J.

    2011-12-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) are important atmospheric constituents affecting the tropospheric chemistry, surface air quality and climatic forcing. They are emitted both from anthropogenic and from natural (soil, lightning, biomass burning, etc.) sources, which can be estimated inversely from satellite remote sensing of the vertical column densities (VCDs) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the troposphere. Based on VCDs of NO2 retrieved from OMI, a novel approach is developed in this study to separate anthropogenic emissions of NOx from natural sources over East China for 2006. It exploits the fact that anthropogenic and natural emissions vary with seasons with distinctive patterns. The global chemical transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem is used to establish the relationship between VCDs of NO2 and emissions of NOx for individual sources. Derived soil emissions are compared to results from a newly developed bottom-up approach. Effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry over China, an important source of errors in the emission inversion, are evaluated systematically for the first time. Meteorological measurements from space and the ground are used to analyze errors in meteorological parameters driving the CTM.

  17. Verification of a prognostic meteorological and air pollution model for year-long predictions in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurley, P.J.; Blockley, A.; Rayner, K.

    2001-01-01

    A prognostic air pollution model (TAPM) has been used to predict meteorology and sulphur dioxide concentration in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia for 1997, with a view to verifying TAPM for use in environmental impact assessments and associated air pollution studies. The regulatory plume model, DISPMOD, developed for the Kwinana region has also been run using both an observationally based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-O) and using a TAPM-based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-T). TAPM predictions of the meteorology for 1997 compare well with the observed values at each of the five monitoring sites. Root mean square error and index of agreement values for temperature and winds indicate that TAPM performs well at predicting the meteorology, compared to the performance of similar models from other studies. The yearly average, 99.9 percentile, maximum and mean of the top 10 ground-level sulphur dioxide concentrations for 1997 were predicted well by all of the model runs, although DISPMOD-O and DISPMOD-T tended to overpredict extreme statistics at sites furthest from the sources. Overall, TAPM performed better than DISPMOD-O, which in turn performed better than DISPMOD-T, for all statistics considered, but we consider that all three sets of results are sufficiently accurate for regulatory applications. The mean of the top ten concentrations is generally considered to be a robust performance statistic for air pollution applications, and we show that compared to the site-averaged observed value of 95μgm -3 , TAPM predicted 94μgm -3 , DISPMOD-O predicted 111μgm -3 and DISPMOD-T predicted 125μgm -3 . The results indicate that the prognostic meteorological and air pollution approach to regulatory modelling used by TAPM, gives comparable or better results than the current regulatory approach used in the Kwinana region (DISPMOD), and also indicates that the approach of using a currently accepted regulatory model with a prognostically

  18. Improved regional-scale groundwater representation by the coupling of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to the groundwater model OpenGeoSys (OGS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Miao; Heße, Falk; Kumar, Rohini; Wang, Wenqing; Fischer, Thomas; Walther, Marc; Zink, Matthias; Zech, Alraune; Samaniego, Luis; Kolditz, Olaf; Attinger, Sabine

    2018-06-01

    Most large-scale hydrologic models fall short in reproducing groundwater head dynamics and simulating transport process due to their oversimplified representation of groundwater flow. In this study, we aim to extend the applicability of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to subsurface hydrology by coupling it with the porous media simulator OpenGeoSys (OGS). The two models are one-way coupled through model interfaces GIS2FEM and RIV2FEM, by which the grid-based fluxes of groundwater recharge and the river-groundwater exchange generated by mHM are converted to fixed-flux boundary conditions of the groundwater model OGS. Specifically, the grid-based vertical reservoirs in mHM are completely preserved for the estimation of land-surface fluxes, while OGS acts as a plug-in to the original mHM modeling framework for groundwater flow and transport modeling. The applicability of the coupled model (mHM-OGS v1.0) is evaluated by a case study in the central European mesoscale river basin - Nägelstedt. Different time steps, i.e., daily in mHM and monthly in OGS, are used to account for fast surface flow and slow groundwater flow. Model calibration is conducted following a two-step procedure using discharge for mHM and long-term mean of groundwater head measurements for OGS. Based on the model summary statistics, namely the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the interquartile range error (QRE), the coupled model is able to satisfactorily represent the dynamics of discharge and groundwater heads at several locations across the study basin. Our exemplary calculations show that the one-way coupled model can take advantage of the spatially explicit modeling capabilities of surface and groundwater hydrologic models and provide an adequate representation of the spatiotemporal behaviors of groundwater storage and heads, thus making it a valuable tool for addressing water resources and management problems.

  19. A cloud chemistry module for the 3-D cloud-resolving mesoscale model Meso-NH with application to idealized cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Leriche

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A complete chemical module has been developed for use in the Meso-NH three-dimensional cloud resolving mesoscale model. This module includes gaseous- and aqueous-phase chemical reactions that are analysed by a pre-processor generating the Fortran90 code automatically. The kinetic solver is based on a Rosenbrock algorithm, which is robust and accurate for integrating stiff systems and especially multiphase chemistry. The exchange of chemical species between the gas phase and cloud droplets and raindrops is computed kinetically by mass transfers considering non-equilibrium between the gas- and the condensed phases. Microphysical transfers of chemical species are considered for the various cloud microphysics schemes available, which are based on one-moment or two-moment schemes. The pH of the droplets and of the raindrops is diagnosed separately as the root of a high order polynomial equation. The chemical concentrations in the ice phase are modelled in a single phase encompassing the two categories of precipitating ice particles (snow and graupel of the microphysical scheme. The only process transferring chemical species in ice is retention during freezing or riming of liquid hydrometeors. Three idealized simulations are reported, which highlight the sensitivity of scavenging efficiency to the choice of the microphysical scheme and the retention coefficient in the ice phase. A two-dimensional warm, shallow convection case is used to compare the impact of the microphysical schemes on the temporal evolution and rates of acid precipitation. Acid wet deposition rates are shown to be overestimated when a one-moment microphysics scheme is used compared to a two-moment scheme. The difference is induced by a better prediction of raindrop radius and raindrop number concentration in the latter scheme. A two-dimensional mixed-phase squall line and a three-dimensional mixed-phase supercell were simulated to test the sensitivity of cloud vertical transport to

  20. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  1. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  2. Statistical modeling of phenological phases in Poland based on coupling satellite derived products and gridded meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing and predicting selected phenological phases. This issue is of particular importance in Poland where national-wide phenological monitoring was abandoned in the middle of 1990s and the reactivated network was established in 2006. Authors decided to evaluate possibilities of using a wide-range of statistical modeling techniques to create synthetic archive dataset. Additionally, a robust tool for predicting the most distinguishable phenophases using only free of charge data as predictors was created. Study period covers the years 2007-2014 and contains only quality-controlled dataset of 10 species and 14 phenophases. Phenological data used in this study originates from the manual observations network run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Three kind of data sources were used as predictors: (i) satellite derived products, (ii) preprocessed gridded meteorological data, and (iii) spatial properties (longitude, latitude, altitude) of the monitoring site. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 vegetation products were used for detecting onset dates of particular phenophases. Following indices were used: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR). Additionally, Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) products were chosen to detect occurrence of snow cover. Due to highly noisy data, authors decided to take into account pixel reliability information. Besides satellite derived products (NDVI, EVI, FPAR, LAI, Snow cover), a wide group of observational data and agrometeorological indices derived from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) were used as a potential predictors: cumulative growing degree days (GDD), cumulative growing precipitation days (GPD

  3. Recipes for correcting the impact of effective mesoscale resolution on the estimation of extreme winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Ott, Søren; Badger, Jake

    2012-01-01

    Extreme winds derived from simulations using mesoscale models are underestimated due to the effective spatial and temporal resolutions. This is reflected in the spectral domain as an energy deficit in the mesoscale range. The energy deficit implies smaller spectral moments and thus underestimatio...

  4. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  5. Influence of Meteorological Regimes on Cloud Microphysics Over Ross Island, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glennon, C.; Wang, S. H.; Scott, R. C.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lubin, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic provides a sharp contrast in cloud microphysics from the high Arctic, due to orographic lifting and resulting strong vertical motions induced by mountain ranges and other varying terrain on several spatial scales. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) deployed advanced cloud remote sensing equipment to Ross Island, Antarctica, from December 2015 until January 2016. This equipment included scanning and zenith radars operating in the Ka and X bands, a high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL), and a polarized micropulse lidar (MPL). A major AWARE objective is to provide state-of-the-art data for improving cloud microphysical parameterizations in climate models. To further this objective we have organized and classified the local Ross Island meteorology into distinct regimes using k-means clustering on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We identify synoptic categories producing unique regimes of cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties over Ross Island. Each day of observations can then be associated with a specific meteorological regime, thus assisting modelers with identifying case studies. High-resolution (1 km) weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) are sorted into these categories. AMPS-simulated anomalies of cloud fraction, near-surface air temperature, and vertical velocity at 500-mb are composited and compared with ground-based radar and lidar-derived cloud properties to identify mesoscale meteorological processes driving Antarctic cloud formation. Synoptic lows over the Ross and Amundsen Seas drive anomalously warm conditions at Ross Island by injecting marine air masses inland over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This results in ice and mixed-phase orographic cloud systems arriving at Ross Island from the south to southeast along the Transantarctic Mountains. In contrast, blocking over the Amundsen Sea region brings classical liquid-dominated mixed-phase and

  6. Sensitivity of the modelled deposition of Caesium-137 from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant to the wet deposition parameterisation in NAME

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leadbetter, Susan J.; Hort, Matthew C.; Jones, Andrew R.; Webster, Helen N.; Draxler, Roland R.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation into the impact of different meteorological data sets and different wet scavenging coefficients on the model predictions of radionuclide deposits following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Three separate operational meteorological data sets, the UK Met Office global meteorology, the ECMWF global meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale meteorology as well as radar rainfall analyses from JMA were all used as inputs to the UK Met Office's dispersion model NAME (the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The model predictions of Caesium-137 deposits based on these meteorological models all showed good agreement with observations of deposits made in eastern Japan with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.44 to 0.80. Unexpectedly the NAME run using radar rainfall data had a lower correlation coefficient (R = 0.66), when compared to observations, than the run using the JMA mesoscale model rainfall (R = 0.76) or the run using ECMWF met data (R = 0.80). Additionally the impact of modifying the wet scavenging coefficients used in the parameterisation of wet deposition was investigated. The results showed that modifying the scavenging parameters had a similar impact to modifying the driving meteorology on the rank calculated from comparing the modelled and observed deposition

  7. Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnavsky, E.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

  8. Mean atmospheric temperature model estimation for GNSS meteorology using AIRS and AMSU data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rata Suwantong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of modeling the relationship between the mean atmospheric and air surface temperatures is addressed. Particularly, the major goal is to estimate the model parameters at a regional scale in Thailand. To formulate the relationship between the mean atmospheric and air surface temperatures, a triply modulated cosine function was adopted to model